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Category 3 Typhoon Phanfone Pounding Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:02 PM GMT on October 04, 2014

Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Phanfone is pounding the small islands south of the main Japanese island of Kyushu with torrential rains and wind gusts of up to 101 mph as the storm heads north towards Tokyo. Winds at Japan's Kita-daitō (North Daitō Island) gusted to 45.3 m/s (101 mph) at 2:35pm JST (1:35 am U.S. EDT) on Saturday, before the wind observations were knocked offline. Minami-daitō has set an all-time calendar-day record for the month of October with 217.0 mm (8.54 inches) of rain, beating the old October record of 198.5 mm on Oct. 26, 2010. Daily rainfall records go back to 1942 there (thanks go to TWC's Nick Wilgen for these stats.) Japanese radar showed that rains from the outer spiral bands of Phanfone were moving over southern Kyushu and southeastern Honshu on Saturday afternoon (in U.S. EDT time.) Satellite loops show that Phanfone remains a large typhoon with a prominent eye, but wind shear of 30 knots is disrupting the storm and stretching it into an oval shape, with the heavy thunderstorms no longer as intense. Our two top models for predicting typhoon tracks, the GFS and European, predicted with their 12Z Saturday runs that Phanfone would hit the main Japanese island of Honshu near 18 UTC on Sunday, and make its closest pass by Tokyo near 00 UTC Monday (8 pm EDT Sunday.) High wind shear and cooler waters will continue to weaken Phanfone, and it should be no stronger than a Category 1 storm at its point of closest approach to Tokyo. Heavy rains from Phanfone are the main threat, and are likely to bring dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. The 12Z Saturday morning run of the GFDL model predicted that Phanfone would dump widespread rains of 4 - 8" across much of Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Phanfone taken at 03:35 JST (2:35 pm EDT Saturday, October 4, 2014) from the Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for Typhoon Phanfone as simulated by the GFDL model at 12Z Saturday October 4, 2014. Phanfone was predicted to dump rains of 8+ inches (yellow colors) across portions of Japan. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

A Typhoon Watch in Guam for Typhoon Vongfong
Typhoon Vongfong was headed west-northwest at 14 mph in the Pacific waters about 550 miles east-southeast of Guam at 11 am EDT Saturday, and that island is under a Typhoon Watch. Vongfong is expected to pass though the Northern Mariana Islands on Monday as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon. The storm is expected to turn more to the northwest later in the week, and could be a threat to Japan in 7 - 9 days.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Hurricane Simon.

Simon says: I'm a hurricane!
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Simon put on a burst of rapid intensification Saturday morning to became the season's thirteenth hurricane. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating the storm Saturday afternoon, and at 1:20 pm EDT found a central pressure of 952 mb and flight level winds at 10,000 feet of 130 mph, which typically translates to a surface wind speed of 115 mph--which would make Simon a low-end Category 3 hurricane. Simon is expected to recurve to the north, and dissipate off the central coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Tuesday. The 12Z Saturday runs of the GFS and European models have come into agreement that Simon's remnants will bring another round of heavy rainfall to the Southwest U.S. beginning on Wednesday.

Simon's ascension to hurricane status gives the unusually busy 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season 18 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far (east of 140°W.) An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees just 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with two of those named storms and one hurricane occurring after October 10. If Simon becomes an intense hurricane, as appears likely, 2014 will tie with 1992 for the highest number of intense Eastern Pacific hurricanes in one season--eight. Simon is the 12th consecutive named storm to become a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, after Genevieve, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, and Rachel. The previous record for consecutive hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific was eight, set in 1992 (Orlene, Iniki, Paine, Roslyn, Seymore, Tina, Virgil, Winifred.) Thanks go to wunderground members CybrTeddy and Mark Cole for looking up these stats.

Quiet in the Atlantic
Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory offers his take on what rest of hurricane season might bring in his Thursday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

that cabo system is not good news for that area. i read a surfing blog there are some ex patroits americans not giving up and rebuilding.
Thanks for the blog! Tropical Storm Vongfong is a minimal Typhoon now though, so perhaps that should be corrected?
No one is saying that a system can't form in the western caribbean during a inactive year (Think Ida 2009).What he's saying is that the GFS has shown so many false alarms this season even in favored climatology areas that it's hard to believe it even now.The idea is not crazy but the model has been terrible all season long.I'll wait to see if other models are on board.More preferably the Euro.

Thanks Doc.
Thanks Dr. Masters!


Simon
well IF this verifies it wll go up the east coast fast..NYC may want to stay alert as well wow................
Vongfong

one model turns it northward......................................... ........................
Quoting 2. Envoirment:

Thanks for the blog! Tropical Storm Vongfong is a minimal Typhoon now though, so perhaps that should be corrected?


Thanks, that is fixed now.

Dr. M.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (1419)
3:00 AM JST October 5 2014
===================================
In Truk Waters (Chuuk)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Vongfong (985 hPa) located at 12.0N 151.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 14.3N 146.5E - 70 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Mariana Islands
48 HRS 16.7N 141.1E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3 Mariana Islands
72 HRS 18.3N 136.9E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Okinotori shima waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
3:00 AM JST October 5 2014
===================================
190 KM East Southeast Of Amami Oshima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (945 hPa) located at 27.9N 131.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
325 NM from the center in north quadrant
240 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 33.0N 135.3E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) southwest of Cape Shiono [Wakayama prefecture]
48 HRS 39.9N 151.5E - Extratropical Low In Sea East Of Japan
These scallops are delicious.
13. josF
Thank you, Dr. Masters.
Quoting 1. islander101010:

that cabo system is not good news for that area. i read a surfing blog there are some ex patroits americans not giving up and rebuilding.


What do you mean? Simon is not forecast to effect Cabo at all except to give them some good surf so why wouldn't the surfers rebuild? After all, surfers have the hurricanes to thank for some of the good surf that Southern Baja gets. Build a hurricane proof house and enjoy it.
Thanks Doc...Its getting cold fast.
35F and raining on top of the snow that fell last night. Supposed to snow again tonight, this should be fun. And interesting driving to the airport at 11pm tonight.z

Some football humor:

What's the difference between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins?

The last Patriots Super Bowl team picture isn't in black and white.
Oh gfs....
Quoting 16. Dakster:

35F and raining on top of the snow that fell last night. Supposed to snow again tonight, this should be fun. And interesting driving to the airport at 11pm tonight.z

Some football humor:

What's the difference between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins?

The last Patriots Super Bowl team picture isn't in black and white.
I hope we see some snow flakes early this year.We saw our first non accumulative day last year the day before Thanks Giving.It was quite pleasant and definitely set everyone up in the Holidays mood.
Some of the areas in Phanfone's path saw historic rainfall from the one-two punch of Tropical Storm Nakri and Typhoon Halong in August. The city of Kochi had over 61 inches of rain in August, its wettest month in records dating back to 1886. The rural hamlet of Shigeto in the mountains of Kochi Prefecture picked up 94.41 inches of rain, crushing its previous all-time record for any calendar month by nearly 40 inches.

Link
Beautiful pinhole eye and stadium effect.

Thank you Dr. Masters
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:19 PM PDT on October 04, 2014
Clear
96.5 °F
Heat Index: 92 °F
Humidity: 12%
Dew Point: 36 °F

Wind: 8.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Falling)
90.5F here right now. No AC being used.

Baylor just blocked a field goal attempt
and ran it back for a touchdown.... Baylor 7, Texas 0...
Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

I hope we see some snow flakes early this year.We saw our first non accumulative day last year the day before Thanks Giving.It was quite pleasant and definitely set everyone up in the Holidays mood.
Greetings Wash..Have you seen the latest GFS.?...Check out the 500 mb temp loop......Link


Guam may not get much from this if it continues on its current track.. Japan on the other hand will take a nasty hit.
Quoting 23. hydrus:

Greetings Wash..Have you seen the latest GFS.?...Check out the 500 mb temp loop......Link
Thanks Hydrus.CWG touched up on this and it seems those CPC maps will be wrong.
Watching recon go into EPAC storms this season sure has been one heck of a lot of fun.

The East Pacific has produced amazing hurricanes this year. Some large too..Which isnt the usual.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope we see some snow flakes early this year.We saw our first non accumulative day last year the day before Thanks Giving.It was quite pleasant and definitely set everyone up in the Holidays mood.


My Uncle used to have a huge farm in Upper Marlboro, Maryland. Our family would meet up there each year for ThanksGiving. I remember on a couple occasions it snowed a little bit or we had some flurries.

My parents both graduated from high school in Upper Marlboro.
I went to Mount Vernon High School for 9th grade before moving to Moore Oklahoma.
Quoting 28. Sfloridacat5:



My Uncle used to have a huge farm in Upper Marlboro, Maryland. Our family would meet up there each year for ThanksGiving. I remember on a couple occasions it snowed a little bit or we had some flurries.

My parents both graduated from high school in Upper Marlboro.

I wouldn't mind more years to have snow flakes the day of or before Thanks Giving.But that in it's self is starting to become a rarity.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wouldn't mind more years to have snow flakes the day of or before Thanks Giving.But that in it's self is starting to become a rarity.


I remember some Winters when we had basically no snow (sled went unused for the season). What a let down for a kid.

Quoting 20. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Beautiful pinhole eye and stadium effect.




what is it means?
The front is just about to clear my area. I can't wait to feel that dry continental air.

Quoting 32. pablosyn:



what is it means?


Not quite sure what you're asking.
But pinhole eye means that the eye is very very small, generally less than 10-15 miles.
I'm not sure exactly how sure Simon's eye is.

THe stadium effect is when the eye appears larger than it is.
There will be a bowl shape dent in the clouds, and then the real eye in the middle.
So it looks like a stadium.
You can tell this in the satellite images because there may be a shadow over part of the eye from one hlf of the "stadium".

Stadium effect in Katrina:


What it all simplifies to is that the storm is very intense, and has a well formed cloud structure.
...SIMON SAYS IT IS A MAJOR HURRICANE TO A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
2:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 4
Location: 20.6°N 115.0°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Scientists to fast-track evidence linking global warming to wild weather

I thought scientists were "agenda-free?" LOL...

Fast tracking a hoax...at the bequest of the governments that have been buttering their bread for 30 years so that even more severe controls and taxes can be levied on the common people.

Defend "fast-tracking" this NEW BS that climate is tied to weather events on a planet with a 4 billion year history...when for YEARS we've been told that weather is not tied to climate.

It's BS. It's pathetic.
Quoting pablosyn:


what is it means?


Inside the eye of Katrina.
Looks just like a stadium from inside the eye (known as a "Stadium Effect.")



Image Credit by: Hurricane Hunters/NOAA.
I love the NHC sense of humor with Simon.

Can anybody upload the final advisory from the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season?.
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

I love the NHC sense of humor with Simon.

Can anybody upload the final advisory from the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season?.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. AS SUCH... ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON HAVE ENDED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6. ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST... BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS
BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS
AS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS... THE SKELETAL
REMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 23.4N 50.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 52.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 07/1800Z 25.4N 54.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.8N 56.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1800Z 30.2N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
40. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:51 PM GMT on October 04, 2014

Absolute classic!.I can only imagine that once the final advisory went out a deep sigh of relief and applause from everybody happened in the office.
GFS wants out of the Western Caribbean then to Florida and up the east coast. That was the summary.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. AS SUCH... ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON HAVE ENDED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6. ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST... BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS
BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS
AS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS... THE SKELETAL
REMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 23.4N 50.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 52.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 07/1800Z 25.4N 54.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.8N 56.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1800Z 30.2N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$


You can tell Stewart was just done with that season at that point.
repost
Yea I would wait and see what 18z says.
Gator, Largo, or Sfloridacat5, to name a few, will be in the eye of Fay in about 264 hours.

How's that for wishcasting? Pretty good


HURRICANE Simon
In defense of the GFS, the 12z ECMWF has been showing development out of the SW Caribbean, the only thing is that it eventually moves into the extreme eastern Pacific and makes landfall in Mexico. I think that's more likely imo, but we'll see. SW Caribbean is an area to watch this time of year as ever. Trudy, Fay, or neither?



Quiet in the Atlantic
Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days.
GEOS-5 has been hinting at a Caribbean storm for days. I'll give it about a 40% chance we see something form in the Caribbean. I'm not making odds on SW or SE FL at this point. Really mowed over Cuba this last run...

132hrs Thursday morning..

240hrs Next Monday night..
Phanphone a threat to Japanese GP at Suzuka
http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/formula1/29455024
Could either be a very wet race or no race at all...
We definitely don't need a hurricane. Here's a reminder of what Charley did to a neighborhood that was right next to the Charlotte harbor.

Quoting Skyepony:
GEOS-5 has been hinting at a Caribbean storm for days. I'll give it about a 40% chance we see something form in the Caribbean. I'm not making odds on SW or SE FL at this point. Really mowed over Cuba this last run...

132hrs Thursday morning..

240hrs Next Monday night..


Send me a link to this thank you

Yeah I agree but I'd give it more of 50%-60% to be honest
Quoting 44. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, its been beat to death today.
We're waiting to see more runs to see if the GFS continues to shorten to time line and develop the system.


DELETE userID, posts FROM WU WHERE posts LIKE "GFS%", "gfs%";
Quoting 53. wunderkidcayman:



Send me a link to this thank you

Yeah I agree but I'd give it more of 50%-60% to be honest
60%! Why?

Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

I hope we see some snow flakes early this year.We saw our first non accumulative day last year the day before Thanks Giving.It was quite pleasant and definitely set everyone up in the Holidays mood.

Myself included! I have never been so "Christmasy" that early before. But the snow put me in the mood :D
Quoting 56. Doppler22:


Myself included! I have never been so "Christmasy" that early before. But the snow put me in the mood :D
It definitely got me in the mood to decorate my home more.Not to mention Thanksgiving last year was cold.I hope we repeat something similar this year.
Hmm
Quoting 53. wunderkidcayman:



Send me a link to this thank you

Yeah I agree but I'd give it more of 50%-60% to be honest
START TO LOOK LIKE HURRICANE SANDY PATH AGAIN
Quoting 58. Gearsts:

Hmm

May you post the rest of the doom err I mean model runs please?.


DOOM AND BOOM!!
WOW! Ok, Probably not exciting weather news but this NEVER happens here. :D And it won't last long. lol

Fair

73°F

23°C

Humidity29%

Wind SpeedNW 6 mph
Barometer30.10 in
Dewpoint39°F (4°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 4 Oct 4:35 pm CDT

...WARMUP AND
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TOMORROW.

AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH A RAPID TRANSITION BACK TO A MOISTENING AND WARMING SOUTHERLY
FLOW...
Quoting hurricanes2018:
START TO LOOK LIKE HURRICANE SANDY PATH AGAIN

There is not gonna be another Sandy for a while so give it up

By the way

Quoting hurricanes2018:


DOOM AND BOOM!!


Please give me the link to that thank you
The sun is up over Vongfong:

18Z GFS at 84 hours
Incredible surf conditions in Japan today and tomorrow. Shikoku is getting waves from 11 to 15 feet today and the forecast for early tomorrow shows waves up to 33 feet. Whoa.

Seas offshore of southern Japan are running 40 feet.

Source: surf-forecast.com


Sandy went north over Jamaica, over Cuba, Bahamams then up the east coast,the rest is history. This new storm that the GFS is forecasting to develop is further west where Sandy develop at least at the moment.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
START TO LOOK LIKE HURRICANE SANDY PATH AGAIN
Quoting 66. EdwardinAlaska:

Incredible surf conditions in Japan today and tomorrow. Shikoku is getting waves from 11 to 15 feet today and the forecast for early tomorrow shows waves up to 33 feet. Whoa.

Seas offshore of southern Japan are running 40 feet.

Source: surf-forecast.com



wow ive never seen waves 33 feet
Simon is arguably the best-looking tropical cyclone this year, with an spectacularly circular central dense overcast and eye, prominent southern band, and developing northern spiral band.

I'm very skeptical, but the latest CIMSS ADT update yields an eye temperature of 33.7C (92.7F!). This would be among the hottest on record, if not the hottest on record.

This blog is really slow this evening.
Quoting 46. Sfloridacat5:

Gator, Largo, or Sfloridacat5, to name a few, will be in the eye of Fay in about 264 hours.

How's that for wishcasting? Pretty good
yes indeed its why we are so interested to see IF this does develop
144hr 18Z GFS
a few of the 12z Euro Ensembles do show a storm moving towards Florida..not many..but most show it moving into the BOC..

12z NCEP Ensembles
18z at 153 hours
The front is coming down and a low is closing off in the southern Caribbean.
Quoting 60. washingtonian115:

May you post the rest of the doom err I mean model runs please?.
That was the 12z, the new 18z is coming out.
folks out WEST....If you can..please post a pic of this Blood Moon.............................................. .........If you live in the western half of the United States, you'll have a front-row seat on a lunar eclipse that will turn the moon a burnt reddish orange for about an hour Wednesday, creating the second blood moon in relatively short succession.

The full eclipse will start at 6:25 a.m. ET, NASA says, and last until 7:24 a.m. ET.
12z UKMET has a low moving into the BOC at 144 hours



Quoting LargoFl:
folks out WEST....If you can..please post a pic of this Blood Moon.............................................. .........If you live in the western half of the United States, you'll have a front-row seat on a lunar eclipse that will turn the moon a burnt reddish orange for about an hour Wednesday, creating the second blood moon in relatively short succession.

The full eclipse will start at 6:25 a.m. ET, NASA says, and last until 7:24 a.m. ET.


The eclipse will be visible to the entire eastern half of the United States too, including the SE United States. I will be photographing the event through my telescope and Nikon D5100 camera. The weather is looking like it'll cooperate with skies clearing out early Wednesday morning ahead of the eclipse.
Quoting 75. Climate175:

That was the 12z, the new 18z is coming out.
I got the snacks and popcorn!.
Quoting 78. CybrTeddy:



The eclipse will be visible to the entire eastern half of the United States too, including the SE United States. I will be photographing the event through my telescope and Nikon D5100 camera.
wonderful TY teddy
so IF there IS a LOW down there next Sunday..we start Really watching it.................
18Z at 189 hours
Quoting 79. washingtonian115:

I got the snacks and popcorn!.
I brought Giant into my house! Ready to go! It is gonna win a Oscar soon, already won an Emmy!
Today, meteorologists at NOAA’s National Weather Service are using a new model that will help improve forecasts and warnings for severe weather events. Thanks to the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, forecasters will be able to pinpoint neighborhoods under threat of tornadoes and hail, heavy precipitation that could lead to flash flooding or heavy snowfall and warn residents hours before a storm hits. It will also help forecasters provide more information to air traffic managers and pilots about hazards such as air turbulence and thunderstorms.
While I know all of the FL wishcasters and modelcasters would LOVE to see the storm the GFS is showing... please for the love of all that is holy no. This is the FIRST year I've been talked into taking a cruise during hurricane season, and we fly into Miami on the 16th, sailing on the 18th...

Of note... the GFS has a tendency to have convective feedback when handling the persistent low pressure in the SW Carribean, and absolutely LOVES to spin it up.
Quoting 83. Climate175:

I brought Giant into my house! Ready to go! It is gonna win a Oscar soon, already won an Emmy!
We'll see!.So far it's very entertaining!.
Gem model puts a hurricane in the Atlantic the same week.................................
Quoting 86. washingtonian115:

We'll see!.So far it's very entertaining!.

Yep! I have been eating and laughing the whole time! Let me get more food. I am having chips and salsa now!
Quoting 85. jeffs713:

While I know all of the FL wishcasters and modelcasters would LOVE to see the storm the GFS is showing... please for the love of all that is holy no. This is the FIRST year I've been talked into taking a cruise during hurricane season, and we fly into Miami on the 16th, sailing on the 18th...

Of note... the GFS has a tendency to have convective feedback when handling the persistent low pressure in the SW Carribean, and absolutely LOVES to spin it up.
well good luck to you on your trip ok...we floridians are hoping it Doesnt come this way believe me.
That was a good movie! Captain Trough saves the East Coast once again!
276 hours, the system is over Fl.
Quoting 56. Doppler22:


Myself included! I have never been so "Christmasy" that early before. But the snow put me in the mood :D
I think it is snow this November, mid-late month.
Quoting 92. Sfloridacat5:

276 hours over Fl.


Out to sea after crossing Fl. on this run (doesn't run up the coast).
The African low pressure in the Mediterranean Sea has approached open water between Tunisia and Sicily with increasing in thunderstorm activity but stil disorganized, we have a window of about 24/36 hours for a possible development over sea surface of 24°C/26°C before he reaches colder water over Jonian Sea.

Love it! :P
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:



Quoting 97. SFLWeatherman:

Love it! :P

It took me a while to find this gif.But it was worth it :).On this run Captain Trough Save the U.S saves the rest of the east coast but Florida takes a hit.Well others have to sacrifice themselves for the safety of the rest of the east coast.

The plot thickens on the GFS!.Can't wait to see hat it shows next run.
Hmmm the GFS has what the CMC has

Time for everyone to get the supplies!
Good Evening. Don't put too much faith in the long-term models. I was on yesterday talking about fishing this morning in the Florida Big Bend coastal waters this morning and many of you noted about the high seas forecast; the PM Tallahassee NWS marine forecast had a small craft advisory with North winds of 20 knots. I set my alarm for 5:30 this am (in the Northern part of Leon County over an hour from the coast) and stepped outside........Wind was calm (it was a wading trip near St. George Island) so I rolled the dice and drove down.

Tally NWS totally blew the forecast; coastal waters were like glass the entire morning (and no boats on the water because of the forecast)...............................The only problem was a pesky Porpise that shadowed me all morning in the shallows waiting for me to throw the smaller fish back that he/she would chase down and eat 10-20 feet from me; this happened about ten times and I gave up after two hours. Have some great I-Phone video of one of these exchanges.................So, no fish for me (no keepers), but plenty of fish for the Porpise, and a beautiful morning.
18Z GFS


Simon is beautiful!
Quoting 102. SFLWeatherman:

18Z GFS





That's the earliest a GFS gulf storm has been forecasted I've seen in a while this year.

Simon looking good, and it looks like CSL will be spared another direct hit at least.
The GFS, 00Z ECWMF, NAVGEM, CMC, Fim 7, Fim 8 and Fim 9 all have it
Quoting 104. win1gamegiantsplease:



That's the earliest a GFS gulf storm has been forecasted I've seen in a while this year.

Simon looking good, and it looks like CSL will be spared another direct hit at least.
Can't post the images..............Oh Well.

BAM! It's a Hit!

And then 4-days later, another storm starts to take shape down in the SW Caribbean. Looks like an Active October for sure!


here we go!!
Quoting 108. HurriHistory:


And then 4-days later, another storm starts to take shape down in the SW Caribbean. Looks like an Active October for sure!
Woah woah!.One storm at a time.It's not a guarantee the GFS will have either of these next run.
Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:



I remember some Winters when we had basically no snow (sled went unused for the season). What a let down for a kid.




Winter 1972-73 had 1/10" Same for winter 1997-1998. All other winters have had at least one inch season totals in the DC metro area but I also remember other sledless winters.
Northeast |cool weather for one day then a warm up here!
- Lake effect rain showers will linger near the Lower Great Lakes.
- Rain could be accompanied by thunder and lightning and small hail or graupel.
- Rain will taper off Sunday across northern New England but clouds will linger.
- Sunday's highs will range from the low 50s in the Upper Great Lakes to mid 60s near the Mid Atlantic Coast.
- Warming trend begins Monday with as temps climb into the 60s and 70s, near 80s for the Mid Atlantic region.
Getting right chilly tonight in DC metro. Gonna have to dig out the jacket. Dry, 50s with wind headed towards low 40s with wind. Season is certainly changing. Wind eliminates any freeze threat though

Is Florida succeeding ?


: P
Quoting 105. SFLWeatherman:

The GFS, 00Z ECWMF, NAVGEM, CMC, Fim 7, Fim 8 and Fim 9 all have it



I saw the CMC too but interesting the euro has it
Quoting 114. Patrap:

Is Florida succeeding ?


: P


Not yet

There appears to be a weak circulation forming around 12N, 50W.
There's a definite spin to the convection, which hints at signs of a COC trying to form. Dry air intrusion is a factor somewhat though. However, the islands should look out closely for this system's approach, since the most recent unnamed Tropical wave axis (axes) & troughs have brought quite a bit of significant weather impacts to the southern windward islands. Trinidad and Tobago has been the latest island nation to suffer damage from the passage of these potent systems- as attested to by fellow blogger Pottery... Perhaps this organizing system could eventually become Fay. Time will tell...
God's Blessings to All!
Pretty much a perfect pinhole.
So if the EURO has latched on to this storm in WC could it actually happen?
Assuming this system the GFS is on to even pans out, it likely will be a weak hurricane at best. Conditions are not favorable for anything strong. A major hurricane pretty much can be ruled out.
Quoting 116. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not yet



Wouldn't you want them to win them all?
Quoting 100. Gearsts:

Time for everyone to get the supplies!



I'm assuming you are joking. That 12 days out.
Quoting 86. washingtonian115:

We'll see!.So far it's very entertaining!.


You seem very (almost in a strange way) excited about a storm hitting Florida, who has been rain-drenched the past month. Do you like flooding?
Quoting 121. CumberlandPlateau:


Wouldn't you want them to win them all?


I think I've answered this question for you before
Quoting 113. georgevandenberghe:

Getting right chilly tonight in DC metro. Gonna have to dig out the jacket. Dry, 50s with wind headed towards low 40s with wind. Season is certainly changing. Wind eliminates any freeze threat though




High in Wilmington for tomorrow won't break into the 70's. Perfection.
Quoting 124. win1gamegiantsplease:



I think I've answered this question for you before

Okay. I will go back and check.
Thought we were in for another week of epic rains? Doesn't look like to me. This is from the NWS in Ruskin:

Monday Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Monday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Night And Wednesday Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows in the lower 70s.

Thursday Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

Friday Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

Saturday Mostly sunny in the morning...then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Hmm 18Z GFS show a second W CARIB storm again if this trend continues Then this might get interesting because 2 storms one after ther other and if it was to impact the same area that will be ...
Quoting 123. CumberlandPlateau:


You seem very (almost in a strange way) excited about a storm hitting Florida, who has been rain-drenched the past month. Do you like flooding?
Oh lordy lord lord.Your reading into the post way to deep.We're laughing because the GFS has been horrid all season long and has had a system forecast in the caribbean since May.

I hate when people come on who don't get the joke and ruin the fun.
The person is on.Opps we better not mention SNOW .
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
So if the EURO has latched on to this storm in WC could it actually happen?


Euro ain't good when it comes to developing storms but when there is a well established storm it does well

So I would not be paying much attention to Euro untill it actually forms
Put it to the challenge-Simone!

I see, but the rest of the models see something that could happen though.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Euro ain't good when it comes to developing storms but when there is a well established storm it does well

So I would not be paying much attention to Euro untill it actually forms
Quoting 128. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm 18Z GFS show a second W CARIB storm again if this trend continues Then this might get interesting because 2 storms one after ther other and if it was to impact the same area that will be ...


If this trend continues...

Quoting 130. washingtonian115:

The person is on.Opps we better not mention SNOW .


Already got snow Washi... You?
guaranteed if the s fl. storm does threat it will be the super hype fest.
Quoting 132. weatherbro:

Put it to the challenge-Simone!




Bo bo boop!!!
134. Climate175
Lol.I was just looking at that one.The GFS model runs could make a very good Hollywood movie disaster flick.
the weekend CPC maps are computer generated instead of during the weekdays where the forecasters make them..normally I wouldn't post them but since they are depicting what the 12z Euro is showing, I thought why not..





12z Euro thinks the same as the CPC maps that are going to be wrong..





please discuss among yourselves..later..:)
That's Right
Quoting 138. islander101010:

guaranteed if the s fl. storm does threat it will be the super hype fest.


There are a couple of bloggers from FL on here, maybe...
Haven't got SNOW yet.To warm for that stuff.

I see the sensitive Floridians are on tonight thinking someone is cheering on doom for there state.
Quoting 140. washingtonian115:

134. Climate175
Lol.I was just looking at that one.The GFS model runs could make a very good Hollywood movie disaster flick.
Call Steven Spielburg!
Simon has reached Cat 4.

EP, 19, 2014100500, , BEST, 0, 211N, 1156W, 115, 946, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 20, 1009, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D,
HurriHistory:


BAM! It's a Hit!
Touchdown!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Simon has reached Cat 4.

EP, 19, 2014100500, , BEST, 0, 211N, 1156W, 115, 946, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 20, 1009, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D,


Seventh of the year, cool.
They are competing, lovely to see that. Look to the outflows. *-* Both are "19", E and W respectively. *-*

Simon:



Vongfong:
Simon has reached Cat 4.

EP, 19, 2014100500, , BEST, 0, 211N, 1156W, 115, 946, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 20, 1009, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D,

its starting to look like a cat 5 hurricane look at the eye of this hurricane in the last few hours.
153. Climate175
All ready brought mine in Advance!.


hurricane Simon at 8:58 PM EDT on October 04, 2014
Quoting 143. win1gamegiantsplease:



There are a couple of bloggers from FL on here, maybe...


It's not the regular bloggers to worry about though...it's the ones that come out of the woodwork at those times! LOADS of them! LOL

Hi everybody! Have our first actually cool'ish' night tonight- 40's, very late for North Wales! we've been very dry and mild for here, had loads of rain and wind last night though, finally enough to make the waterfalls off the mountains finally show themselves again.

Was totally surprised at seeing Simon go rapid when I came in! I have a friend in AZ who has been awed by how green the desert hills have been, look like more to help keep it that way. I remember, must have been around '95, give or take a few years, when in the Coachella Valley, from Palm Springs down to Indio, the hills were SO green. Growing up there, I had NEVER seen them like that. Looked like Hawaii over the So Calif desert, so def understand her surprise.

weathermanwannabe, I totally know what you mean. The forecasts for North Wales are very often wrong. They can't seem to put into account the local conditions. I'll tell people 'tomorrow will be fine' when they think it's going to not be cause of forecasts...and am more than not right LOL

Washi, i do hope we get an E. Pac hurricane with your name! hahaha Like Barbz said, Washi threatening many countries :P heehee!

Hope everyone is fine and happy as can be

157. mitthbevnuruodo
1:09 AM GMT on October 05, 2014
Washi, i do hope we get an E. Pac hurricane with your name! hahaha Like Barbz said, Washi threatening many countries :P heehee!

I'll have millions angry at me!.I'll have to change my user name to "Thisisnotwashi".lol.


big eye for a Typhoon
Speaking of football:

If you have a car containing a Dolphins wide receiver, a Dolphins linebacker, and a Dolphins defensive back, who is driving the car?

The cop.


it was rainning at my house today


big warm up for the east coast
18z NCEP Ensembles


18z Navgem
last frame
Quoting 162. Dakster:

Speaking of football:

If you have a car containing a Dolphins wide receiver, a Dolphins linebacker, and a Dolphins defensive back, who is driving the car?

The cop.


When did the 'fins move to Baltimore?




Hurricane Gladys as seen from Apollo 7

Formed October 13, 1968
Dissipated October 21, 1968
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 85 mph (140 km/h)
Lowest pressure 965 mbar (hPa); 28.5 inHg
Fatalities 8 direct, 3 indirect
Damage $18.7 million (1968 USD)
Areas affected Cuba, Southeastern United States (Florida landfall), Nova Scotia







The Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1968 Monthly Weather Review
Quoting 122. luvtogolf:



I'm assuming you are joking. That 12 days out.
;)
Quoting 36. CycloneOz:

Scientists to fast-track evidence linking global warming to wild weather

I thought scientists were "agenda-free?" LOL...

Fast tracking a hoax...at the bequest of the governments that have been buttering their bread for 30 years so that even more severe controls and taxes can be levied on the common people.

Defend "fast-tracking" this NEW BS that climate is tied to weather events on a planet with a 4 billion year history...when for YEARS we've been told that weather is not tied to climate.

It's BS. It's pathetic.


Note that the article states that they are also ruling out a link sooner. It seems that the agenda is to figure out the truth (to the extent that they can) sooner.

"They are developing a new scientific model that will shrink to as little as three days the time it takes to establish or rule out a link to climate change"

Regarding linking weather and climate, did someone explain that to you on here a few days ago?
The mother of my October curiosity...



It can, has and will happen again, some day. So beautiful. Haiyan, imo, did not come close.
Quoting 451. LargoFl:

so far on this early run, looks like center goes into sarasota/ft meyers area.....................


Quit teasin' me!
Fair

61°F

16°C

Humidity54%
Wind SpeedNW 6 mph
Barometer29.99 in (1015.4 mb)
Dewpoint44°F (7°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 4 Oct 9:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


Absolutely awesome weather here, definitely feels like Fall behind this front!
Quoting 479. LargoFl:

we'll for peoples sake in the maybe affected area's its good we do show what the model says,they can make their own decisions i guess...me Im watching it closely


It's been showing it 4-5? consecutive runs around the same time period. It's not pushing it back constantly like early in the season. We started following it @ 384 hrs and it's down to 264-ish. I'll be watching it. When it say it for 96-120 time frame, then I begin to truly say, hmmm. It is still a long way out presently, but like you said, good to keep watch. Not holding my breathe however until the aforementioned time slot.
Just crossed the border...



...and oh does it feel nice!
...AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...THE 6TH OF THE SEASON...
8:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 4
Location: 21.4°N 115.9°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
178. txjac
Quoting 176. GatorWX:

Just crossed the border...



...and oh does it feel nice!

Enjoy! As I am here in Houston ...shame it will be starting to warm up again tomorrow ...
Quoting 132. weatherbro:

Put it to the challenge-Simone!




so we have our first transgender hurricane? It was Simon, now its Simone? lol
Quoting 172. GatorWX:

The mother of my October curiosity...



It can, has and will happen again, some day. So beautiful. Haiyan, imo, did not come close.

Haiyan is light years ahead of Wilma if you ask me, probably one of the (if not the) strongest tropical cyclones on record.


Quoting 180. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Haiyan is light years ahead of Wilma if you ask me, probably one of the (if not the) strongest tropical cyclones on record.





I agree, Haiyan would've looked pretty cool with a pinhole eye though, like a super-symmetrical Gilbert at peak
Fair

53°F

12°C

Humidity74%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.01 in (1016.2 mb)
Dewpoint45°F (7°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 4 Oct 11:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

Gettin chilly out there, very nice though
Quoting 180. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Haiyan is light years ahead of Wilma if you ask me, probably one of the (if not the) strongest tropical cyclones on record.






I wish we had real physical data measurement from Haiyan. Wilma was a monster, but Haiyan was in a league of its own. I don't think anything has ever looked that good on satellite. In its wake was damage almost hard to comprehend that even put Katrina and Andrew to shame.

I wonder how tall eyewall convection peaked at, and just how strong the winds really were. Considering it wiped out coconut trees and produced surge like a tsunami, its hard to find comparison.
Quoting 183. Jedkins01:




I wish we had real physical data measurement from Haiyan. Wilma was a monster, but Haiyan was in a league of its own. I don't think anything has ever looked that good on satellite. In its wake was damage almost hard to comprehend that even put Katrina and Andrew to shame.

I wonder how tall eyewall convection peaked at, and just how strong the winds really were. Considering it wiped out coconut trees and produced surge like a tsunami, its hard to find comparison.


agreed, I think its likely Haiyan was the most intense cyclone ever recorded or at least very close
Quoting 180. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Haiyan is light years ahead of Wilma if you ask me, probably one of the (if not the) strongest tropical cyclones on record.





To each their own, I suppose. One thing with Wilma is it peaked when the eye was most contracted. If Haiyan had winds that measured up to Wilma's, while both at their peak strength, I'd assume the tighter eye of Wilma would contain, somewhere in that 4 nm circumference, there were stronger winds. I believe the plane missed Wilma's peak and Haiyan, it was absent, so it's kind of hearsay. Large eyes do more damage though.
Quoting 180. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Haiyan is light years ahead of Wilma if you ask me, probably one of the (if not the) strongest tropical cyclones on record.





Wilma and Gilbert seemed quite similar. It'd be interesting to hear Dr Master's take. Haiyan certainly had a Katrina-like menacing look on satellite, but if we're imagining absolute top intensity, I would assume Wilma over Haiyan. Could make for an interesting discussion amongst the experts and Dr M did fly into Gilbert.



Katrina



Haiyan certainly had one of most beautiful cdo's I've ever seen given the large eye. I wouldn't doubt the pressure bottomed out <900mb. What was it officially?
Comparing Pacific hurricanes to Atlantic ones is apples to oranges. The height of the tropopause is higher in the Pacific than in the Atlantic so cloud tops are allowed to grow taller in the the atmosphere in the Pacific than in the Atlantic.
With the Atlantic and Caribbean becoming more desert like and obviously returning to a quasi dormant period will the blog survive?
Quoting 178. txjac:

See the brown air? That is pollutants. They always collect behind the front. It does clear out when there are multiple forthcoming fronts. My first hummingbird showed up a week and a half ago, checked out the flowers, and flew south. Hardly a more sensitive sniffer. They will return after conditions are right, but until then we stand and breathe.
TA, the thing about comparing those images is the resolution. With Wilma's eye only 4nm at peak, pretty hard for it to accurately represent cloud temps for such a small area. Haiyan's eye was what ~25 nm wide?
Quoting 188. 19N81W:

With the Atlantic and Caribbean becoming more desert like and obviously returning to a quasi dormant period will the blog survive?


obviously?? what support do you have of that? 1 below average season?
Quoting 187. Drakoen:

Comparing Pacific hurricanes to Atlantic ones is apples to oranges. The height of the tropopause is higher in the Pacific than in the Atlantic so cloud tops are allowed to grow taller in the the atmosphere in the Pacific than in the Atlantic.


Wanna chime in with your thoughts?
Quoting 192. GatorWX:



Wanna chime in with your thoughts?


Wilma was stronger. There's no direct correlation between hurricane eye size and shape compared to the Maximum sustained winds or the minimum sea level pressure. Link
Quoting 191. Hurricanes101:



obviously?? what support do you have of that? 1 below average season?

We live down here there has been a noticeable change in our rainfall patterns just because the nhc finds minimal justification to label a storm doesn't mean seasonal averages are remaining average they just need to make sure they have a reason for being. The climate here is changing and we get less rain and less td,s thn in recent memory
00Z GFS continues to show a storm hitting SW Florida

this time by 240 hours, lets see if this continues
Quoting 196. Hurricanes101:

00Z GFS continues to show a storm hitting SW Florida

this time by 240 hours, lets see if this continues
Hits Florida then up the Southeast and East Coast.
Quoting 196. Hurricanes101:

00Z GFS continues to show a storm hitting SW Florida

this time by 240 hours, lets see if this continues


We have a LOOONG way to go.
Quoting 191. Hurricanes101:



obviously?? what support do you have of that? 1 below average season?


We could always just argue about agw.
Quoting 198. Drakoen:



We have a LOOONG way to go.


agreed but its progress, before it kept showing it in the same timeframe. At least now it is moving up the timeframe

We will see what happens
Phanfone
Quoting 199. GatorWX:



We could always just argue about agw.
]

*runs away*
Quoting 186. GatorWX:



Wilma and Gilbert seemed quite similar. It'd be interesting to hear Dr Master's take. Haiyan certainly had a Katrina-like menacing look on satellite, but if we're imagining absolute top intensity, I would assume Wilma over Haiyan. Could make for an interesting discussion amongst the experts and Dr M did fly into Gilbert.



Katrina



Haiyan certainly had one of most beautiful cdo's I've ever seen given the large eye. I wouldn't doubt the pressure bottomed out <900mb. What was it officially?


I think 895 mb maybe 893, I'd have to find the source.


New model run shows caribbean storm as minimal hurricane crossing FL into Charleston/Georgetown

Quoting 182. Jedkins01:

Fair

53°F

12°C

Humidity74%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.01 in (1016.2 mb)
Dewpoint45°F (7°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 4 Oct 11:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

Gettin chilly out there, very nice though
The lower humidity and Dew Point is making it feel comfortable as well.


Fair
66°F
19°C
Humidity75%
Wind SpeedNW 5 mph
Barometer29.94 in (1013.8 mb)
Dewpoint58°F (14°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Last Update on 4 Oct 11:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at
Daytona Beach International Airport (KDAB)
Lat: 29.18°N Lon: 81.05°W Elev: 29ft.


I still say the smaller eye usually wins. Obviously, it's not always the case, but at that intensity, much of the time. It's so rare however. Seems most logical anyway.
Quoting 204. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The lower humidity and Dew Point is making it feel comfortable as well.


Fair
66F
19C
Humidity75%
Wind SpeedNW 5 mph
Barometer29.94 in (1013.8 mb)
Dewpoint58F (14C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Last Update on 4 Oct 11:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at
Daytona Beach International Airport (KDAB)
Lat: 29.18N Lon: 81.05W Elev: 29ft.


Ain't it glorious, the first one? Still around 69-70 here, but I feel. I damn sure feel it! Ran to the store with my tank top on on the bike, felt a little chilly, not gonna lie.
895mb is what I just read, as estimated by JMA. It's the CDO on this one that won me over. I still say Wilma though.



T8.0
Quoting 205. hurricane23:




Six consecutive runs.


If tc's were women, this would be my bride. Weird comparison, lol. It certainly wins the award for looks.
For me Katrina has always been my favorite tropical cyclone in terms of appearance.


But ever since November 8th, 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan is now on top.

I just really wish we were able to get data from inside the eye of Haiyan. I really believe that Haiyan may have been as strong as 875 - 880 mbars. Maybe even <875.

But looks certainly aren't everything, it's the personality that counts.
Quoting 212. Speeky:

For me Katrina has always been my favorite tropical cyclone in terms of appearance.


But ever since November 8th, 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan is now on top.

I just really wish we were able to get data from inside the eye of Haiyan. I really believe that Haiyan may have been as strong as 875 - 880 mbars. Maybe even <875.

But looks certainly aren't everything, it's the personality that counts.
I think Haiyan was stronger than Tip.
Just perfect
Quoting Gearsts:
Just perfect
Wow,impresive , perfect monster...hope the best for those in its past...
Quoting Climate175:
Hits Florida then up the Southeast and East Coast.
Bogus, don't count on that, after all, is 2014...
Quoting GatorWX:
895mb is what I just read, as estimated by JMA. It's the CDO on this one that won me over. I still say Wilma though.



T8.0


Satellite data suggested Haiyan peaked at ~858mb.
Race in Japan affected by Phanfone has finished successfully after 85% of distance,and was stopped not because of rain,but because of terrible crash of Jules Bianchi,who is now unconscious and on the way to hospital
Here are the photos: Link
Quoting 209. GatorWX:

895mb is what I just read, as estimated by JMA. It's the CDO on this one that won me over. I still say Wilma though.



T8.0


Actually T8.1
Link
Quoting 219. PolishHurrMaster:

Race in Japan affected by Phanfone has finished successfully after 85% of distance,and was stopped not because of rain,but because of terrible crash of Jules Bianchi,who is now unconscious and on the way to hospital
Here are the photos: Link

One more photo: Link
0Z GFS..hurricane for florida still wens after next.............................................. .....
Quoting 210. GatorWX:



Six consecutive runs.
yeah gator..this isnt good at all huh
What's important on the GFS is that development is now within the 120 hour time frame and not how strong it becomes or where it goes.

hopefully it wont screw up our music festival in north florida which starts on the following thurs.. it might grab a cool front and bring in beautiful weather. thats positivity. lyle lovett and the indigo girls are headlining.
06z takes the system up towards the Big Bend of Florida.
Quoting 225. CybrTeddy:

What's important on the GFS is that development is now within the 120 hour time frame and not how strong it becomes or where it goes.



Timing wise it has stayed the same not pushing out the time frame more, there is a lot of model fatigue out there so we will see.
Quoting sporteguy03:

Timing wise it has stayed the same not pushing out the time frame more, there is a lot of model fatigue out there so we will see.


GFS has gone from 300 hours (Two days ago) to 228 hours for the same location of the system as it enters the GOM.
So it's chopping away time pretty good now.
Good Morning all GFS ensembles have pushed up the timeframe now in the 4-5 day range for development in the SW Caribbean. I really would not be surprised if we got something similar to Hurricane Gladys out of this.

96 hrs.



120 hrs.

Despite all the model noise,NHC remains silent on the 5 day formation.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
232. JRRP
GFS ECMWF CMC and other models are showing some development NE of the island
So happy so so happy! :P it is 59 right now!!!!!!!
Tropical Wave interacting with the monsoon trough.





Wind shear remains high at the moment, but there is a weaker region of shear to the north between the Polar Jet and Subtropical Jet.

Whoa, temps bottoming out in high 30's, low 40's this morning Florence, SC. Close if not a record low for the date. Ideal cooling conditions. Temps will rebound nicely when sun gets a little higher.

Starting Tuesday of next week, the forecast for the following 7 days is just about perfect. 85/60, 10%-20% precip and sun. It's "do anything weather." Wish I golfed. I should go fishing.
Good Morning... brr 53 deg. at my location in CFL boy is cold. lol

GFS might have finally latched on our next system this upcoming week.

In regards genesis, I do believe P41L will be the "seed" to get development going in the S Carib. while at the same time "borrowing" some energy from the extreme EPAC to aid on its dev.



00Z 700MB RH @ 00HR:



00Z 700HR RH @ 72HR:



00Z ECMWF starting to show some lowering in heights in 72HR to 96HR (with the latter being noticeable):

Folks, thanks for keeping me posted on the upcoming Caribbean weather, I'm going on a cruise to the eastern Caribbean starting on the 11th of October, your information is appreciated, as a long time lurker, thanks!
Let the timeframe move up even more.
Brian?
My last hummingbird here in SC split about a week ago. My butterfly bushes and the feeders are lonely.

Quoting 189. Pallis1:

See the brown air? That is pollutants. They always collect behind the front. It does clear out when there are multiple forthcoming fronts. My first hummingbird showed up a week and a half ago, checked out the flowers, and flew south. Hardly a more sensitive sniffer. They will return after conditions are right, but until then we stand and breathe.
Got the First Frost of the year this morning, there is frost on the roofs.
Typhoon Vongfong is about to move thru the Mariana Islands between Guam and Rota.See the Guam Radar here
I sure hope this is bogus,because IF it isnt,im in big trouble along with many others in here......
The GFS ensembles are crazy this morning, that's impressive stuff (216 hours).



It looks like the NAVGEM is the only other model that shows something on the Atlantic side though, and it isn't particularly reliable either. The CMC is now fully on board with East Pac development, and the ECMWF is leaning that way as well. UKMET doesn't appear to show anything of significance through 6 days.
P41L does have a slight spin going on.
Good Morning it's a cold 55 here in Longwood. Next weekend however looks to be a different story as it appears our eye's might be pilled to the south. By the way Lake Harney & Lake Jessup are at action stages right now as the St. Johns is still rising this Caribbean system could be then nail in the coughen it appears as Downtown Sanford would flood this system heads this way.

IF..this does verify..it will be a very fast mover..gee i hope this is bogus........
Coldest since April!

Oh by the way Daytona Beach had its wettest September ever!
I am waiting for the 12z.
First cool front made it through the Fl Keys early morning hours (75F); my 4am power walk was delightful rather than an ordeal. Front should back up by tomorrow.

Not so good in 1948 here ... from the NWS Key West archives discussion

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1948...A CATEGORY
3 HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL IN MARATHON. WINDS WERE NEAR 125 MPH
BETWEEN THE BAHIA HONDA RAIL BRIDGE AND MARATHON. 4.51 INCHES OF
RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST...SETTING THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 5TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 66 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.
GFS has it running right up the east coast wow.........................................
St Johns is rising. Was heading down 46 yesterday, water levels looks so close to some off those bridges.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Good Morning it's a cold 55 here in Longwood. Next weekend however looks to be a different story as it appears our eye's might be pilled to the south. By the way Lake Harney & Lake Jessup are at action stages right now as the St. Johns is still rising this Caribbean system could be then nail in the coughen it appears as Downtown Sanford would flood this system heads this way.

guys what is the MPH on 70kts?............................................ ................
Looks like we got some blues showing up, going to be interesting the next week or so.
Quoting LargoFl:
80 MPH I believe.
Quoting LargoFl:
guys what is the MPH on 70kts?............................................ ................
it will be dragging very humid air from the deep tropics sw carib. with it. hopefully it stays south of florida watch the models change it to the fl. straits.
Quoting 248. LargoFl:

IF..this does verify..it will be a very fast mover..gee i hope this is bogus........
So is it bringing the strong winds inland when it goes up the Southeast and Northeast?






something to watch
Quoting 260. Climate175:

So is it bringing the strong winds inland when it goes up the Southeast and Northeast?
on this run yes sure looks that way.
FROST on rooftops and car tops and in an exposed grassy field this morning in Riverdale Md at 8:AM while walking the dogs. No freeze and no frost close to my house or in my garden. WIll check rental garden in College Park later today but expect no damage. But temps were a few degrees colder than I expected and strong gusty winds last night died completely so we were calm this morning.

Oct 4 1974, my Mt Vernon garden was devastated by a freeze. Earliest to date freeze I've seen in this area in an inner suburb. That same year outer suburbs got it Sept 24. 1974-75 was a mild winter.
Quoting 250. StormTrackerScott:

Oh by the way Daytona Beach had its wettest September ever!


They had alot of rain. Meanwhile, an hour NNW, I came in at 56% of average for September. My driest month as it relates to average since January 2013.
GFS has strong tropical storm force winds even up into new england..we need to keep a very good eye on this storm IF..it does verify huh.
Quoting 263. georgevandenberghe:

FROST on rooftops and car tops and in an exposed grassy field this morning in Riverdale Md at 8:AM while walking the dogs. No freeze and no frost close to my house or in my garden. WIll check rental garden in College Park later today but expect no damage. But temps were a few degrees colder than I expected and strong gusty winds last night died completely so we were calm this morning.

Oct 4 1974, my Mt Vernon garden was devastated by a freeze. Earliest to date freeze I've seen in this area in an inner suburb. That same year outer suburbs got it Sept 24. 1974-75 was a mild winter.
I got frost on the rooftops too.
Quoting 258. hurricanewatcher61:

80 MPH I believe.
ok thanks,gee i sure hope it is bogus,really dont need repair bills right now.
Quoting 252. Climate175:

I am waiting for the 12z.
I imagine we should be watching run after run on this possible system,if it verifies alot of people all along the east coast will be dealing with this system.
Navgem has the Low pressure system down there now too..............................................
Quoting 268. LargoFl:

I imagine we should be watching run after run on this possible system,if it verifies alot of people all along the east coast will be dealing with this system.
The fact it is next week is interesting now, GFS is going to still make adjustments and move things a bit, does not have my full attention just yet, let's wait for it to form this Friday.
Your welcome, repair bills we do not need, that's for sure.
Quoting LargoFl:
ok thanks,gee i sure hope it is bogus,really dont need repair bills right now.
Is the time line going up on this future storm?
Unless all these models are on drugs, it looks like we may be dealing with a storm sometime down the road.
outside of winds,this is going to be a big flooding event gee...........................................
Quoting 231. Tropicsweatherpr:

Despite all the model noise,NHC remains silent on the 5 day formation.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

That will change in 48 hours.
I'll come to the GFS defense for a few things: Climatology supports this as we are nearing the second peak of the hurricane season, The GFS is not pushing out the time frame like it did earlier the season, and we are now in the medium range forecast range. I don't know about the ECMWF and its history with SW Carribbean Genesis. Track and intensity is still up for debate though.
Some very sad news out of Okinawa this morning, where three US airmen are presumed drowned after being swept out to sea during Phanfone's passage.



Link
Quoting 274. LargoFl:

outside of winds,this is going to be a big flooding event gee...........................................
Quoting 266. Climate175:

I got frost on the rooftops too.


I've seen this level of cold the first week in October several years since I moved here in 1987. A little early (expect this more like the third week than the first] but not at all unprecedented.

And overall it's been a really good growing year in the garden. Only unusual problem was the winter which killed a lot of species normally hardy here. But the summer was just great! not too hot and not too dry. Fall so far has been good also. No complaints.

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice · 29m 29 minutes ago

GFS loves the idea of a Gulf Storm and western sub-tropical Atlantic TC later this week into next. Euro not so much



i see blue on here!!
Not to take the focus off Florida, but there could be a potentially very dangerous storm in the Bay of Bengal in the next week:











The CMC brings it into Bangladesh:



I hope this doesn't play out, as Bangladesh is very prone to flooding and storm surges. Going to be watching this closely as the week progresses.
284. beell
Quoting 281. sporteguy03:


Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice @ 29m 29 minutes ago

GFS loves the idea of a Gulf Storm and western sub-tropical Atlantic TC later this week into next. Euro not so much




I think you have to at least consider the huge longwave trough (and 60 knots of shear) that appears to phase with the tropical system AOA the time it makes it into the Gulf. A ST transition or even a merger/absorption is a given in the GFS.







285. beell


Good Morning all..

06z NCEP Ensembles..
287. beell
Cant't remember seeing such a deep digging, highly amplified October trough meeting up with a tropical system at such a low latitude. Could be fun!
Quoting 287. beell:

Cant't remember seeing such a deep digging, highly amplified October trough meeting up with a tropical system at such a low latitude. Could be fun!
What could this exactly mean, strengthening ?
Possible east coast snow storm ??

Quoting 287. beell:

Cant't remember seeing such a deep digging, highly amplified October trough meeting up with a tropical system at such a low latitude. Could be fun!
I thought we were getting a 2 day break from the rains before we get more flooding rains? Another bust forecast.

• TodaySunny. Highs in the upper 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
• TonightClear. Lows 59 to 65. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
• MondayMostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
• Monday NightPartly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. East winds around 5 mph.
• TuesdayPartly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.
• Tuesday NightMostly clear. Lows around 70.
• Wednesday Through Thursday NightPartly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. Lows in the lower 70s.
• FridayMostly sunny in the morning...then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
• Friday NightPartly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows in the lower 70s.
• SaturdayPartly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
06z Navgem
last frame at 180 hours
293. beell
Quoting 288. Climate175:

What could this exactly mean, strengthening ?


Could be a very strong baroclinic system as it moves up the east coast. Fairly cold mid-level temps with the trough in the model. If/when/where they meet is certainly not written in stone at over 200 hrs out.
On this date: October 4-5, 1995, Hurricane Opal moved across Eastern Alabama and western Georgia, after making landfall in NW Florida.

Because the hurricane was a fast mover, it brought strong wind gusts far inland. Hurricane force wind gusts were observed from Montgomery, AL to the Atlanta, GA area. Thousands of trees were toppled across the Southeast USA. The Auburn-Opelika, AL, area was hit very hard!

Compared to some of the past major hurricanes, the damage was less visible, but still .. very widespread. Opal was ranked as the 3rd most costly hurricane at that time, with $3 billion dollars in damage. Over 120 miles of the Florida coastline was pounded by Opal's massive storm surge.
I'm still around 40% chance of a Caribbean storm. Yesterday's 12Z Geos-5 run took it to the East Pacific. The 00Z run develops twins on Thursday, a storm in both the EPAC & Caribbean. The one in the Caribbean skirts Jamaica kind of hard next Monday after the EPAC storm rains out on Central America. This run ends after crossing Cuba, while approaching south Florida.





Quoting 287. beell:

Cant't remember seeing such a deep digging, highly amplified October trough meeting up with a tropical system at such a low latitude. Could be fun!
Could be mean too, depending on how large, and how long it percolates down ther..
Quoting 294. Stormwatch247:

On this date: October 4-5, 1995, Hurricane Opal moved across Eastern Alabama and western Georgia, after making landfall in NW Florida.

Because the hurricane was a fast mover, it brought strong wind gusts far inland. Hurricane force wind gusts were observed from Montgomery, AL to the Atlanta, GA area. Thousands of trees were toppled across the Southeast USA. The Auburn-Opelika, AL, area was hit very hard!

Compared to some of the past major hurricanes, the damage was less visible, but still .. very widespread. Opal was ranked as the 3rd most costly hurricane at that time, with $3 billion dollars in damage. Over 120 miles of the Florida coastline was pounded by Opal's massive storm surge.

this very well could be a repeat..at least track wise