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Category 3 Typhoon Hagupit Threatening Philippine Islands Hit by Haiyan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:22 PM GMT on December 03, 2014

Category 3 Typhoon Hagupit put on a respectable burst of rapid intensification over the past day, and is steaming west-northwest at 21 mph towards the same portion of the Philippine Islands devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. Hagupit is over very warm ocean waters of 30°C (86°F) and is under light wind shear around 10 knots--conditions which favor intensification into a 150-mph super typhoon by Thursday. The ridge of high pressure steering Hagupit will weaken late this week, putting the typhoon into a region of weak steering currents, making the threat to the Philippines uncertain. The storm will slow down and potentially turn north, keeping the core of the typhoon well out to sea, as predicted by this morning's 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS model. Most concerning are the recent runs of the usually-reliable European model, which has been consistently showing a landfall near 18 UTC Saturday very close to Tacloban on Leyte Island, which endured the brunt of Super Typhoon Haiyan's fury. However, if Hagupit does hit the Philippines, it will be a much weaker storm than Haiyan was. There is less heat energy available in the ocean for Hagupit, and wind shear is expected to rise to the high range on Friday as strong upper-level winds tear at the storm. Heavy rains, not high winds and storm storm surge, will likely be the greatest threat for the Philippines from Hagupit.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Hagupit at 04:30 UTC on Wednesday December 3, 2014. At the time, Hagupit was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Less ocean heat energy available to Hagupit compared to Haiyan
As I discussed in my November 13, 2013 post, Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters, when Super Typhoon Haiyan exploded into one of the most powerful storms ever recorded on Earth, the mighty storm took advantage of some unusually warm sub-surface waters. Haiyan intensified into a Category 5 super typhoon with 195 mph sustained winds, as rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on November 7, 2013. Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F), but the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). However, during the past few months, the trade winds have weakened in the Western Pacific, as the ocean has moved towards an El Niño-like state (as of this week, ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific had reached the threshold of "moderate" El Niño conditions.) Weaker east-to-west blowing surface winds means that warm water in the Western Pacific can slosh eastwards towards South America, resulting in a weaker North Equatorial Current in the waters east of the Philippines, and less warm water and heat energy to fuel typhoons threatening those islands.


Figure 2. Ocean temperatures at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) on December 1, 2013 (top), shortly after the passage of Super Typhoon Haiyan, and on December 1, 2014 (bottom.) Note how weaker east-to-west trade winds near the surface in 2014 have led to a weaker North Equatorial Current, resulting in much cooler waters to the east of the Philippines compared to in 2013. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanx doc
...God's peed to those in the path
Changes now on the 12Z GFS. Will we see this track I have listed unfold now?

Quoting 1. ricderr:

Thanx doc
...God's peed to those in the path


??
You gotta love auto correct
As Bob barker would say come on down. Big changes now underway on the 12Z GFS.

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2014 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 9:00:05 N Lon : 136:05:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 978.4mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.9

Center Temp : -69.3C Cloud Region Temp : -82.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 103km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.8 degrees



Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

I have a convention in February..the 13-14th to be exact..Now I should just keep my mouth shut to not jinx anything..

CWG has a article on Hagupit.I just hope the storm doesn't turn out to be a hag (see what I did there?)
Link
Quoting 43. Daisyworld:

Glaciers in Antarctica are melting three times faster than previously thought

Michael Casey | CBS News | December 2, 2014

Glaciers are melting much faster than previously thought in Antarctica, contributing to rising sea levels that could swamp island nations and flood coastal communities.

The scientists at the University of California, Irvine, and NASA found melt rates of glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica have tripled during the last decade. They also found these glaciers were "hemorrhaging ice faster than any other part of Antarctica and are the most significant Antarctic contributors to sea level rise."

"The mass loss of these glaciers is increasing at an amazing rate," said Isabella Velicogna, jointly of UCI and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. She co-authored a study on the results which will be published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

The findings come as world leaders are meeting in Peru over the next two weeks to begin negotiating a new agreement combating global warming. Greenhouse gas emissions have increased 45 percent since 1990, helping make 2014 possibly the hottest year on record and contributing to everything from droughts to warming oceans.

Using four different measurement techniques, the researchers in Antarctica looked at the total amount of loss and the rate of loss.

Over the past 21 years, researchers found glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment lost an average of 83 gigatons per year (91.5 billion U.S. tons). By comparison, Mt. Everest weighs about 161 gigatons, meaning the Antarctic glaciers lost an amount of water weight equivalent to Mt. Everest every two years over the last 21 years.

What's more, the losses are happening faster and faster.

Over the past decade, the rate of melting has increased by 16.3 gigatons per year -- almost three times the rate of increase for the full 21-year period.

All this melting combined contributed to about a 4.5 millimeters increase in sea level rise.

The picture across Antarctica, which is the size of North America, is not completely dire. NASA reported in September that sea ice across Antarctica is at an all-time high. Ice formation in the continent's southern oceans peaked this year, breaking ice satellite records dating back to the late 1970s.

And last week, research gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) found that sea ice was thicker than previously believed.

"The fact that in the past year there has been an increase of sea ice cover doesn't mean the glacier isn't melting into the ocean," Velicogna said. "They are different processes. They have a different evolution."

© 2014 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Remember post#2 well here we go. I called this set up earlier.

Lots of rain in Texas this run.

Quoting 693. CybrTeddy:

Hagupit is about to pop out an absolutely massive eye.



I'm impressed. As soon as the eye clears out, Dvorak estimates are going to go bonkers.

Hopefully Hagupit won't hit any major land masses but there are still a lot of islands in that area and some of them have substantial populations.
Given the massive rainfalls and low level villages near the sea the whole event is probably going to be some kind of a disaster for somebody.

Thanks to Dr. Masters for again bringing the information to our attention.

My spell checker started working again after about 2 years of down time ricderr, so there's hope yet.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


Three different agencies.

JMA (official agency for the West Pacific)



JTWC (secondary agency for the West Pacific)



PAGASA (official agency for the Philippines)
Quoting 15. jpsb:

Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses



pssst, from the above

During 2003 to 2008



From # 10

Using four different measurement techniques, the researchers in Antarctica looked at the total amount of loss and the rate of loss.

Over the past 21 years, researchers found glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment lost an average of 83 gigatons per year (91.5 billion U.S. tons). By comparison, Mt. Everest weighs about 161 gigatons, meaning the Antarctic glaciers lost an amount of water weight equivalent to Mt. Everest every two years over the last 21 years.

What's more, the losses are happening faster and faster.

Over the past decade, the rate of melting has increased by 16.3 gigatons per year -- almost three times the rate of increase for the full 21-year period.

All this melting combined contributed to about a 4.5 millimeters increase in sea level rise.



Your playing a game where only you're keeping score my friend.


Science isn't like dat, as most know it.
Its hard to think its December 3rd and the pacific is still going strong. Makes the Atlantic look like a big wuss lol.

Temps are above average here in Tallahassee this week, next week we will see more normal- average temps in the mid 60s with dry weather. All that arctic air isnt coming anytime in the next 2 weeks. Maybe Christmas it will feel more like Christmas? hehe

Link
Quoting ricderr:
You gotta love auto correct


I've seen worse lol. Maybe a little rain for ya the next 7 days, otherwise its looking pretty bone dry for the deep south. Typical for this time of year. West coast looking wet though.

Typhoon Hagupit

Typhoon Hagupit
Last Updated Dec 3, 2014 12 GMT
Location 8.7N 136.8E Movement WNW
Wind 115 MPH
Category 3 Typhoon Hagupit put on a respectable burst of rapid intensification over the past day maybe a cat 4 storm by friday
Quoting 13. 1900hurricane:


I'm impressed. As soon as the eye clears out, Dvorak estimates are going to go bonkers.


Where's the shear to destroy this thing?.
Thanks Jeff. Putting up Christmas lights in 73 degree, sun-shiney air yesterday. I LOVE the Florida panhandle...for now
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
As Bob barker would say come on down. Big changes now underway on the 12Z GFS.



Models flip flop and change every run. Love your graphic though in post #2, excellent drawing skills and i like how you draw an arrow straight to FL :) but if you follow the wind barbs you are kinda forcing it into FL, but thats just me. :) Maybe the pen just has a Florida bias.
Quoting 15. jpsb:

Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses


That's a conference paper abstract. Care to link to the published full paper? Or are you just trying to base an uninformed opinion off of an unpublished abstract?

Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

Where's the shear to destroy this thing?.

North of 15*N.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Three different agencies.

JMA (official agency for the West Pacific)



JTWC (secondary agency for the West Pacific)



PAGASA (official agency for the Philippines)
I had noticed the very large (and getting larger) track differences between the JMA and the the JWTC. Is this because the Japanese have their own tropical models which, as I far as I know, we don't use? It does seem like there needs to more warning coordination in this part of the world, since the PAGASA seems to be basically using the Japanese model output compared to what we show. This must be totally confusing to the people in the Philippines.
Just a tad too warm for December. That cool down next week will be welcome.
Quoting 17. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Three different agencies.

JMA (official agency for the West Pacific)



JTWC (secondary agency for the West Pacific)



PAGASA (official agency for the Philippines)



Let's hope JTWC verifies. They have had enough misery!
Thanks Dr.

according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%.

While Gray and Klotzbach reject any impacts on the Atlantic season at this time from climate change issues, the Pacific Basin might be the one to keep a close eye on in the coming decades in terms of warmer SST's in certain regions. I would be afraid to look at what coral bleaching looks like in those same Pacific waters over the past 20 years.
nice lunch time update

have a great day
22W/TY/H/C3
RI FLAG ON
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,
TXPQ28 KNES 031529
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 03/1432Z

C. 9.0N

D. 136.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EYE THAT IS PARTIALLY CLOUD
FILLED. COLD MEDIUM GRAY EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE GIVES AN EYE NUMBER OF
6.5 WITH A LIGHT GRAY EYE AND COLD DARK GRAY SURROUNDING RING YIELDING
NO EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR A FINAL DT OF 6.5. MET IS 5.5 BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. PT IS 6.0. 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT
OF 6.0 DOES NOT ALLOW FOR BREAKING A 6 HOUR INTENSIFICATION GREATER THAN
1.0 THUS THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

03/1016Z 8.7N 137.1E SSMIS


...LIDDICK
Quoting 19. WxGuy2014:

Its hard to think its December 3rd and the pacific is still going strong. Makes the Atlantic look like a big wuss lol.

Temps are above average here in Tallahassee this week, next week we will see more normal- average temps in the mid 60s with dry weather. All that arctic air isnt coming anytime in the next 2 weeks. Maybe Christmas it will feel more like Christmas? hehe

Link


The West Pacific season is year round with a minimum in Boreal late winter and early spring. This has been known for centuries and is not new.
Quoting 1. ricderr:

Thanx doc
...God's peed to those in the path
That has to be the most unfortunate Freudian slip yet!
Quoting 13. 1900hurricane:


I'm impressed. As soon as the eye clears out, Dvorak estimates are going to go bonkers.


then it will be a c4 storm
Quoting jpsb:
Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses
A perfect example of the effects of climate change, and a great illustration of how the uneducated and/or biased can believe something to be evidence that isn't, and vice versa. In this case, the increased melting of the AIS--a certain byproduct of our warming atmosphere--is being offset by heavier snowfall atop the sheet--also a byproduct of warming. And we can expect more of this behavior all over the planet. As the atmosphere is thrown further and further out of kilter (thanks to our hourly dump of 4 million tonnes of CO2), swings of the climate pendulum become more and more extreme.
The JMA tends to do better in the W. Pac. I'm still surprised at how different the tracks are, but they are similar for the next 3 days. There isn't much skill past 3 days.
Quoting 42. Neapolitan:

A perfect example of the effects of climate change, and a great illustration of how the uneducated and/or biased can believe something to be evidence that isn't, and vice versa. In this case, the increased melting of the AIS--a certain byproduct of our warming atmosphere--is being offset by heavier snowfall atop the sheet--also a byproduct of warming. And we can expect more of this behavior all over the planet. As the atmosphere is thrown further and further out of kilter (thanks to our hourly dump of 4 million tonnes of CO2), swings of the climate pendulum become more and more extreme.


ice age alert oceans are completely frozen over all landmasses are covered in ice



j/k

map glitch
The PWS (MSDJUR)to the East of my house showed 1.13" for the last 24Hr. period. The one to the North and the Airport
are showing almost nothing for either day, like .05-.06, very strange. It did rain off and on yesterday and at times a good
rate. Not without a sacrifice though. One of my decorative Palms fell over this morning. It was about 6' tall and I noticed it listing a bit yesterday. The rain didn't help that. The exit for the rain gutters is very close to that tree and it didn't look like those were planted deep enough. They were here when I came and that was 2004 so they are 10+ years old. One (of 3) already was gone and now this is two of them. The biggest one is still standing. This one fell against the side of the car and was discovered at about 3AM. Hope it didn't scratch the car. I guess it was a good thing it didn't fall on the car. One of the uprights in the carport shielded it hitting the car, just the fronds hit it (I think)... Doesn't look like there is anymore major rain heading this way. Just a few scattered showers.
Just saw comment #47
Thinking the same thing at the same time.

12Z GFS is still showing a WNW to NW turn at the very last minute (way too close for comfort). Interesting the other models are not showing this turn.
ok....back from taking daughter to the doctors.......can type on a computer instead of my phone.......i left before i posted this on the last blog...so i'll post it here..


Kelvin Wave continues to grow stronger with now plus 5C anomalies showing up. That is impressive and could support a stronger El-Nino event than what is forecast if the atmosphere cooperates.


ok...sorry folks....broken record time again.......the kelvin wave cannot grow stronger...there's no heat engine to warm this water further.....to an extent...at this time of year...it can only grow colder as it relates to the surrounding waters.....the chart...is an anomaly chart...and so what we are seeing...is as the pacific cools this time of year....the anomaly grows greater....we saw the converse effect this summer.....as the last kelvin wave approached....we saw anomalies of 8 and greater....as it propagated east....and with the spring and summer pacific waters warming...the anomalies became less and less
Quoting 47. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Reminds me Super Typhoon Cimaron in 2006 with this projected path. Reminds me Cimaron because that little recurvature he did in 2006, just west of Luzon.
Quoting ricderr:
ok....back from taking daughter to the doctors.......can type on a computer instead of my phone.......i left before i posted this on the last blog...so i'll post it here..


Kelvin Wave continues to grow stronger with now plus 5C anomalies showing up. That is impressive and could support a stronger El-Nino event than what is forecast if the atmosphere cooperates.


ok...sorry folks....broken record time again.......the kelvin wave cannot grow stronger...there's no heat engine to warm this water further.....to an extent...at this time of year...it can only grow colder as it relates to the surrounding waters.....the chart...is an anomaly chart...and so what we are seeing...is as the pacific cools this time of year....the anomaly grows greater....we saw the converse effect this summer.....as the last kelvin wave approached....we saw anomalies of 8 and greater....as it propagated east....and with the spring and summer pacific waters warming...the anomalies became less and less


I've already ordered the cake and balloons for the birth of baby El-Nino.

24 hour map of precipitation for SW Calif.
Quoting 19. WxGuy2014:

Its hard to think its December 3rd and the pacific is still going strong. Makes the Atlantic look like a big wuss lol.

Temps are above average here in Tallahassee this week, next week we will see more normal- average temps in the mid 60s with dry weather. All that arctic air isnt coming anytime in the next 2 weeks. Maybe Christmas it will feel more like Christmas? hehe

Link

It doesn't take low temps to feel like Christmas here in Central Florida. The citrus is ripening and tastes oh so good. Yes! It's finally Christmas season! :-)
Quoting 37. georgevandenberghe:



The West Pacific season is year round with a minimum in Boreal late winter and early spring. This has been known for centuries and is not new.


I get your point but I'm not sure how "Boreal" fits in this context.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I've already ordered the cake and balloons for the birth of baby El-Nino.


I hope its a publix cake, those are the best.
Well joy, looks like any chance of a cool down next weekend are going out the window! It will be cool in the middle of the week and then warming up for the weekend again it appears if the 10 day forecast maps are to be trusted.
i always knew the world was flat:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

doesn't seem as though the rain is gonna go away
Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of rain in Texas this run.




Went through the drought monitor archive, if that run happens i'd likely be taken out of the drought index for the first time since November 2010. :)
Quoting 54. LowerCal:


I get your point but I'm not sure how "Boreal" fits in this context.
Quoting 54. LowerCal:


I get your point but I'm not sure how "Boreal" fits in this context.



"Boreal" refers to Northern Hemisphere. Austral refers to southern hemisphere. I wanted to make clear I was referring to the DJF period rather than the JJA period. It's an important distinction in the deep tropics.
Where's WKC?

Quoting 56. 69Viking:

Well joy, looks like any chance of a cool down next weekend are going out the window! It will be cool in the middle of the week and then warming up for the weekend again it appears if the 10 day forecast maps are to be trusted.


Well you must be looking at the wrong model as the 12Z Euro again Cold arriving as early as next Monday. Look at FL!

Quoting 69Viking:
Well joy, looks like any chance of a cool down next weekend are going out the window! It will be cool in the middle of the week and then warming up for the weekend again it appears if the 10 day forecast maps are to be trusted.


Yep it'll go from above average back to average then probably back up. Nothing can be trusted 10 days out but from what the weather channel and the CPC are calling for are what you just said. Some models are showing a possible shift in the pattern so we'll wait and see. Not enough to say anything for sure will take place other than that the sun will rise again tomorrow :)
Lots of cold air poised to come south and earlier on this run compared to previous runs of the Euro.

Quoting 64. WxGuy2014:



Yep it'll go from above average back to average then probably back up. Nothing can be trusted 10 days out but from what the weather channel and the CPC are calling for are what you just said. Some models are showing a possible shift in the pattern so we'll wait and see. Not enough to say anything for sure will take place other than that the sun will rise again tomorrow :)


More like 6 days now.
12z Euro still bringing it with the double whammy for the Northeast. Would be a major (historic?) event, but the double storm scenario is highly suspect. One will do.



Quoting 24. NttyGrtty:

Thanks Jeff. Putting up Christmas lights in 73 degree, sun-shiney air yesterday. I LOVE the Florida panhandle...for now


We'll check back after the first five hundred days of August
Temps for next Wednesday morning. If NOAA releases a map of blow torching temps across the US then I will laugh.

Euro and Canadian now at days 6 & 7 really dumps the cold air south as a strong coastal storm forms near the Mid Atlantic.

Quoting 61. georgevandenberghe:




"Boreal" refers to Northern Hemisphere. Austral refers to southern hemisphere. I wanted to make clear I was referring to the DJF period rather than the JJA period. It's an important distinction in the deep tropics.

Thx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Euro and Canadian now at days 6 & 7 really dumps the cold air south as a strong coastal storm forms near the Mid Atlantic.



There it is, that arrow pointing right at your house again :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Temps for next Wednesday morning. If NOAA releases a map of blow torching temps across the US then I will laugh.



Here you go Scott!
Up to 120kts at 18z Best Track:

22W HAGUPIT 141203 1800 9.3N 135.2E WPAC 120 933
Quoting Grothar:
Where's WKC?



What you mean where am I?
I've been here the whole time

Anyway what is it? What you want?
And don't tell me to look I know the AOI in the Caribbean I've been watching plus it's been forecasted for days now
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12z Euro still bringing it with the double whammy for the Northeast. Would be a major (historic?) event, but the double storm scenario is highly suspect. One will do.





They always say two is better than 1.
Quoting 27. Naga5000:



That's a conference paper abstract. Care to link to the published full paper? Or are you just trying to base an uninformed opinion off of an unpublished abstract?


It is a workshop paper, so most likely only an abstract was submitted. Note that the previously cited presentation relies on one estimation method only, laser altimetry (LA). Here is a link to all of the invited presentation abstracts for the ISMASS 2012 Workshop abstracts and video of the presentations:
http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/en/events/2012/ ISMASS/Results.html
Another group compared all three of the methods for estimating ice loss, and came up with different results. Check out their work, "Overview of the Ice Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) project findings", in particular, their conclusion:

"...Combining mass-change estimates for the 2003-08 period showed all three techniques
agreeing for all of the regions to within estimated errors, except for LA on the EAIS where
corrections tended to dominate the signal. Combined AIS and GIS IMBIE time series give an
accelerating rate of loss, with mass rates of -102 ± 118 between 1992 and 2000, -292 ± 75
between 2000 and 2012, and -343 ± 62 Gt yr1 between 2005 and 2012.
The optimum target period for GRACE intra-comparison among six research groups was 2003-
2010. The results, with nGIA models used for Antarctica, gave WAIS = -108 ± 26, EAIS = +57
± 35 and AIS = -81 ± 35 Gt yr1, while for Greenland the loss determined in the experiment is
much larger: GIS = -229 ± 27 Gt yr1. Clear acceleration of loss in WAIS and GIS, and a gain
in EAIS, over the target time period is identified for the intra-comparison."



FunkTop Floater Loop

Quoting 69. georgevandenberghe:


We'll check back after the first five hundred days of August


LOL!! Check back after the first thousand days of January too...
From Weatherbell.

EASTERN UPDATE: AS JB SAYS, EC HAS MONSTER WEEK IN THE NORTHEAST
Here's the deal a monster ridge pops across the Western US/Canada which in turn causing a trough to dive south toward FL and as a result a strong coastal system forms the NE side of the trough as it digs into the SE US which eventually lifts NE into Nova Scotia. This set up will ruin any attempt of warmer than average temps in the East next week.

Look at it like this as the warm air surges north into western Canada this will cause the cold across Central Canada to get forced south into the Eastern US potentially causing a "Big Daddy" along the Mid Atlantic.

Dare I say Omega Block!
Meanwhile the rain continues to pour into Central California.


Forecast now is for a 70% chance of acceptable weather for tomorrow mornings KSC launch.




Quoting 85. StormTrackerScott:

Look at it like this as the warm air surges north into western Canada this will cause the cold across Central Canada to get forced south into the Eastern US potentially causing a "Big Daddy" along the Mid Atlantic.

Dare I say Omega Block!
If the NAO stays positive , it shouldnt be that strong...Stranger things have happened tho.

I wasn't aware Jim Beam did weather too.

Go fig'ya?
90. Inyo
I wonder why NOAA is leaning on the GFS(warm) so heavily in its longer range forecasts when the gfs has been so bad lately. I'm sure they consult other models too but...
I also have my eye on this moisture plume near Hawaii as it could get caught up in the southern branch by days 8 thru 10 and cause a storm across the Gulf & FL by day 10 "potentially".

Quoting 91. StormTrackerScott:

I also have my eye on this moisture plume near Hawaii as it could get caught up in the southern branch by days 8 thru 10 and cause a storm across the Gulf & FL by day 10 "potentially".


Looks Modoki...for now.
Comparing the 12Z ECMWF from yesterday to today's 12Z forecast for next Tuesday (Dec 9).

You can see the ECMWF has the low in the same location at the same time (12Z Tuesday, Dec.9) but a little stronger. It's also bringing the cold air further south compared to yesterday's run.

ECMWF
12Z Tuesday, Dec. 9 forecast from 12Z yesterday



ECMWF
12Z Tuesday, Dec.9 forecast from 12Z today.
Sure hope it isn't too cold/rainy on the 13th, I'm playing TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course.
Good evening WU-fellows. Did some of you had a look to the ECMWF-link to a great WU-Map of the Euro-model (Link in doc's blog entry) showing the latest track of Hagupit?

Here some screenshots for Dec 6. Mindblowing: Currently the track into the Philippines is exactly the same as with Haiyan last year if memory serves me well. Stright into the bay of Tacloban. Hope it will change!!







Mods: If Euro-Screenshots from WU aren't allowed please delete them. Thanks.
Quoting 89. Patrap:

I wasn't aware Jim Beam did weather too.

Go fig'ya?
J.B. is also imbibed by some when conditions are cold and harsh. It is known for its rapid effect, and relieves cold , achy bones , and sour mood produced by such maladies.
yoboi, your reference is a little outdated and the study appears to be an outlier. Nothing I know of published since has come to a similar conclusion (quite the opposite in fact). The most recent research indicates not only a net loss of ice mass but also an acceleration in the loss rate.
Quoting 78. guygee:

It is a workshop paper, so most likely only an abstract was submitted. Note that the previously cited presentation relies on one estimation method only, laser altimetry (LA). Here is a link to all of the invited presentation abstracts for the ISMASS 2012 Workshop abstracts and video of the presentations:
http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/en/events/2012/ ISMASS/Results.html
Another group compared all three of the methods for estimating ice loss, and came up with different results. Check out their work, "Overview of the Ice Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) project findings", in particular, their conclusion:

"...Combining mass-change estimates for the 2003-08 period showed all three techniques
agreeing for all of the regions to within estimated errors, except for LA on the EAIS where
corrections tended to dominate the signal. Combined AIS and GIS IMBIE time series give an
accelerating rate of loss, with mass rates of -102 ± 118 between 1992 and 2000, -292 ± 75
between 2000 and 2012, and -343 ± 62 Gt yr1 between 2005 and 2012.
The optimum target period for GRACE intra-comparison among six research groups was 2003-
2010. The results, with nGIA models used for Antarctica, gave WAIS = -108 ± 26, EAIS = +57
± 35 and AIS = -81 ± 35 Gt yr1, while for Greenland the loss determined in the experiment is
much larger: GIS = -229 ± 27 Gt yr1. Clear acceleration of loss in WAIS and GIS, and a gain
in EAIS, over the target time period is identified for the intra-comparison."






Thanks for that. I know all about abstract submissions for conferences having submitted quite a few myself for Sociology. Which is why i brought up the strangeness of citing a conference abstract and not the actual paper/published abstract.

As for the data, why yes, it seems like the research backs up what has been discussed ad nauseam here. The West Sheet is losing ice at an accelerated rate, the East is slightly gaining, with Antarctica at overall a loss, and with Greenland shedding ice at an ever alarming rate. And I think it's important to mention that snowfall mass isn't a 1 to 1 replacement for ice mass as the snowfall doesn't just become part of the ice sheet overnight.

Quoting 76. wunderkidcayman:



What you mean where am I?
I've been here the whole time

Anyway what is it? What you want?
And don't tell me to look I know the AOI in the Caribbean I've been watching plus it's been forecasted for days now


Good. I didn't want you to miss it. Heavy rains forecast for Northern Caribbean, eastern Cuban, into the Bahamas.

Quoting 95. luvtogolf:

Sure hope it isn't too cold/rainy on the 13th, I'm playing TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course.
Cool...How long have you played golf.?
Quoting 101. hydrus:

Cool...How long have you played golf.?


40 years. Never played there. Can't wait for holes 16-18.
Quoting luvtogolf:


40 years. Never played there. Can't wait for holes 16-18.


I go to The Players every year. You are bound for the water unless you are good, or lucky :)
Quoting 105. WxGuy2014:



I go to The Players every year. You are bound for the water unless you are good, or lucky :)


I know, I'll bring plenty of golf balls.
Quoting 84. yoboi:






So it's gaining ice??????


That article doesn't state that. It states that it WAS gaining ice (on average from 2003 to 2008). Conditions are rapidly changing at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where the melt rate of some glaciers has tripled over the last decade.

Here's an article about that from yesterday:

Link

See also comment 78.
Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:



Well you must be looking at the wrong model as the 12Z Euro again Cold arriving as early as next Monday. Look at FL!




Look at the 240 hour model for next Friday, you can see the warmth building in the center of the country. Sure it will be cool Tues - Thurs but not cold by any means and then the warm up begins Friday the 12th.
Quoting 104. luvtogolf:



40 years. Never played there. Can't wait for holes 16-18.
I worked two country clubs for a total 9 years , never had much time , but finally from 2001 to 2004 I practiced quite a bit. It is harder than it looks , and mastering a good driver swing took me 2 months...I am a natural with the putter..:)..40 years is a very long time..u must be good..

Interesting ECMWF 12z run. Is it locking in on a solution in the medium range? It shows two systems, the first of which lacks cold air and would mainly be a problem for Northern New England.  The strengthening of this system and a huge positive PNA western ridge allows cold air to dive down from Canada. With upper level energy coming down from Canada the model shows a system developing off the coast of North Carolina and moving northeast. The big question will be whether or not this system corrects west like the previous two systems. Also whether or not the first system could act as the 50/50 low to keep cold air in place and help guide the system closer to the coast rather than away from it.
Typhoon Hagupit has a very healthy inner core as evidenced by the microwave pass below. With the eye clearing out, I expect the cyclone to reach Category 5 intensity late tonight or tomorrow morning and reach a peak intensity of 145-150kt tomorrow evening.

Quoting WaterWitch11:
i always knew the world was flat:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

doesn't seem as though the rain is gonna go away


"Note: By international agreement, we are only allowed to show Meteosat data once every six hours. Meteosat provides coverage for Europe and Africa."
BOM ENSO TRACKER



70% chance of El Nino.

Many climate indicators remain close to El Niño thresholds, with climate model outlooks suggesting further intensification of conditions remains likely. The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance that El Niño will be declared in the coming months. Whether or not an El Niño fully develops, a number of El Niño-like impacts have already emerged.
Several ENSO indicators are currently close to, or exceed, El Niño thresholds. These include tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, which have now exceeded El Niño levels for a month, and the Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained at or near El Niño levels for three months. Other indicators, such as tropical cloud, trade winds and rainfall patterns, have either remained near average or only temporarily approached thresholds. This indicates a typical El Niño ocean–atmosphere interaction may not be fully locked in.
The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, so it also remains possible that the ocean and atmosphere will fully couple in the coming weeks to months. If an El Niño is established, models suggest it will be weak, or moderate at most. Regardless of whether an El Niño is declared, El Niño-like effects are likely, as shown by the Bureau’s December–February Climate Outlook, which shows a drier and warmer summer is likely for many parts of Australia. Some El Niño-like impacts have already been seen this spring in Australia and several regions around the globe, including Asia, South America and southern Africa.
The Orion EFT-1 Countdown clock.





HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1858UTC 3 DECEMBER 2014
GALE WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a tropical low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal one south (14.1S)
longitude ninety one decimal two east (91.2E)
Recent movement : east southeast at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1002 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours.



Link
Quoting 113. JohnLonergan:

BOM ENSO TRACKER



70% chance of El Nino.

Many climate indicators remain close to El Niño thresholds, with climate model outlooks suggesting further intensification of conditions remains likely. The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance that El Niño will be declared in the coming months. Whether or not an El Niño fully develops, a number of El Niño-like impacts have already emerged.
Several ENSO indicators are currently close to, or exceed, El Niño thresholds. These include tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, which have now exceeded El Niño levels for a month, and the Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained at or near El Niño levels for three months. Other indicators, such as tropical cloud, trade winds and rainfall patterns, have either remained near average or only temporarily approached thresholds. This indicates a typical El Niño ocean–atmosphere interaction may not be fully locked in.
The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, so it also remains possible that the ocean and atmosphere will fully couple in the coming weeks to months. If an El Niño is established, models suggest it will be weak, or moderate at most. Regardless of whether an El Niño is declared, El Niño-like effects are likely, as shown by the Bureau’s December–February Climate Outlook, which shows a drier and warmer summer is likely for many parts of Australia. Some El Niño-like impacts have already been seen this spring in Australia and several regions around the globe, including Asia, South America and southern Africa.


South America already have this impacts...In the entire year we had above average temperatures and rainfall. November ends with 4ºC above average and we had a unusual "warm" winter. The summer 2013-14 is the one of the hottest summer ever recorded and probably this 2014-15 will be warmer. Here in South Brazil we have being a very hot year.
Jeez...

Quoting 117. SouthCentralTx:

Jeez...




Finally they are beginning to chip that warmth away from the East. I agree with the warmth out West and in Canada.
Quoting 71. StormTrackerScott:

Euro and Canadian now at days 6 & 7 really dumps the cold air south as a strong coastal storm forms near the Mid Atlantic.


Wouldn't that second storm mean **** here in the mid-Atlantic?.
Here's what I'm talking about Scott.

Quoting 71. StormTrackerScott:

Euro and Canadian now at days 6 & 7 really dumps the cold air south as a strong coastal storm forms near the Mid Atlantic.




Scott that cold air if forecast for mid week and will be gone by the weekend!
Quoting 109. hydrus:

I worked two country clubs for a total 9 years , never had much time , but finally from 2001 to 2004 I practiced quite a bit. It is harder than it looks , and mastering a good driver swing took me 2 months...I am a natural with the putter..:)..40 years is a very long time..u must be good..




I used to be pretty good. Was a solid 5 handicap in my 20's. Now I play for fun and if I can shoot in the low 80's I'm happy.
O la la! With 50 tornadoes so far France should already have set a new striking national record for this year:



Source (french):
Plus de 50 tornades recensees depuis le 1er janvier en France : une annee record ?
Keraunos.org, 2 decembre 2014 |
Upgraded to the fourth category of a named typhoon

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
3:00 AM JST December 4 2014
==================================
Near Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (940 hPa) located at 9.2N 135.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 10.7N 130.3E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 10.8N 127.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 10.3N 125.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Philippines (Visayas)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 01U
3:00 AM WST December 4 2014
==============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 14.1S 91.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 15.0S 92.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.9S 93.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 18.5S 93.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 21.2S 93.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================
The tropical low [01U, 99S] is located over open water, well away from Cocos Island and the Western Australian Mainland.

The system was located using IR and microwave imagery. During the day a curved band developed [0.2 to 0.3 wrap] on visible imagery giving DTs of 1.5. Between 0830 and 1030 UTC an irregular CDO pattern could yield DTs as high as 3.0. More recently, a curved band on EIR gave DTs of 2.0 with a 0.3 wrap. FT/CI set to 2.0 and intensity set to 25 knots [10 minute average wind].

At 1200 UTC, CIMSS shear indicated that the system was in the shear ridge with shear of about 10 knots. Westerly shear is forecast to increase during Thursday as an upper level trough approaches, limiting the development of the system. This upper level trough will steer the system to the southeast then south over the next 24 to 48 hours over cooler SSTs which will also limit development.

After the system weakens, gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a ridge of high pressure to the south.
Quoting 111. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Typhoon Hagupit has a very healthy inner core as evidenced by the microwave pass below. With the eye clearing out, I expect the cyclone to reach Category 5 intensity late tonight or tomorrow morning and reach a peak intensity of 145-150kt tomorrow evening.



I think that intensity estimate might even be a little underdone. Hagupit is going bonkers.


Quoting 119. washingtonian115:

Wouldn't that second storm mean **** here in the mid-Atlantic?.
Second storm is too far east at the moment. This far out you don't want to be in the jackpot anyways. Plenty of time for this to go in ether direction.
Here's Saturday Scott and as you can see any cold air is long gone and out of the SE by then! Sucks for weekend hunting is all I'm saying!

Quoting 81. NttyGrtty:



LOL!! Check back after the first thousand days of January too...


That's more of a problem further north. I don't find DC winters bad at all.

But I would like another shot at winter gardening in the panhandle.
1900hurricane said..I think that intensity estimate might even be a little underdone. Hagupit is going bonkers.


2014DEC03 193200 6.3 923.7 4.5 122.2 6.3 6.4 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -47.06 -84.57 EYE

Raw at 7.0, yup "Bonkers"
Well winter has certainy arrived the last few days! It's turned a lot chillier, with temps in the 5-9C range, down from the 11-13C we were experiencing. Plus night times are nice and cold now too. Hopefully we'll be able to have a snow day or two this winter.
Hagupit is definitely feeling good today. Look at that CDO. Still not quite clear on the eye, but getting there. Going to be a Cat 5.

Upgraded to SuperTyphoon.Peaks at 160kts.

No Signal Warnings yet, but that will change quickly.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TYPHOON RUBY
11:00 PM PhST December 3 2014
=============================
The typhoon with International Name "HAGUPIT" is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow early morning and will be given a local name "RUBY".

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ruby (HAGUPIT) [958 hPa] located at 8.8N 136.4E or 1,108 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gustiness up to 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

"HAGUPIT" is too far to affect any part of the country but it is expected to enhance northeasterly winds over the seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of central Luzon resulting to rough to very rough sea conditions over the aforementioned areas. Fisher folks and those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow. The next update will be included in the 5AM Public Weather Forecast
Quoting 127. 69Viking:

Here's Saturday Scott and as you can see any cold air is long gone and out of the SE by then! Sucks for weekend hunting is all I'm saying!




I agree it could be gone next weekend but it all depends on how far west this trough digs. If this trough digs in towards Texas then rain could spread across the Gulf & FL followed by a cold push later in time. Complicated pattern next week for sure.
Quoting 132. MAweatherboy1:

Hagupit is definitely feeling good today. Look at that CDO.


Unfortunately this really even doughnut-shape awakes more bad memories :-(
Holy smokes!



Up to 130kts per JTWC. Rarely if ever will they issue a forecast like this. Not only do they forecast a peak of 160kts, but they forecast it to maintain that intensity for 24 hours. Getting kinda scary now. They've got it pegged at 160kts right off Talcoban in three days. If it goes west like the Euro shows that would mean it comes ashore in that neighborhood of intensity. Personally I still think it weakens more than shown, but preparations across all of the Philippines should be ongoing.

Eye is still cloud filled, however the structure looks amazing. CDO remains incredibly cold.


From Philippine's Pagasa website. :-(((
Unfortunately (in this case) foul language isn't allowed in here.
Tropicsweatherpr said..

Upgraded to SuperTyphoon.Peaks at 160kts


Yikes.. that intensity forecast just east of eastern Visayas.

Blue marble loop with Hagupit.
Quoting 125. 1900hurricane:


I think that intensity estimate might even be a little underdone. Hagupit is going bonkers.


Upper air support looks perfect.
Quoting 139. Stormchaser2007:

Eye is still cloud filled, however the structure looks amazing. CDO remains incredibly cold.


Definite sign of rapid intensification..May it veer north , east of the islands.
Quoting 143. hydrus:

Upper air support looks perfect.






As I've already cautiously tried to say yesterday: Shear maps look very conducive, unfortunately.
Quoting 127. 69Viking:

Here's Saturday Scott and as you can see any cold air is long gone and out of the SE by then! Sucks for weekend hunting is all I'm saying!




Hopefully we are in transition between fronts that weekend. I need good weather in Ponte Vedra Beach
Quoting 144. hydrus:

Definite sign of rapid intensification..May it veer north , east of the islands.


Latest from yesterday (local time):
75 pct chance 'Hagupit' to hit PH: PAGASA
ABS-CBNnews.com, Posted at 12/03/2014 5:15 PM | Updated as of 12/03/2014 5:16 PM
MANILA - Weather bureau PAGASA on Wednesday said there is a 75 percent chance that Typhoon Hagupit will make landfall in the Philippines, particularly in Eastern Samar, this Saturday. ...

Better wake up early (current time, saved):

Another underestimated typhoon going into the Philippines.
Another Super Typhoon Forms

Will Super Typhoon Hagupit deliver another destructive blow to the Philippines this weekend?
Super Typhoon Hagupit Rapidly Intensifies; May Threaten the Philippines, Including Tacloban
Published Dec 3 2014 03:55 PM ESTSuper Typhoon Hagupit has formed in the tropical western Pacific Ocean and is undergoing a period of explosive and rapid intensification. It may pose a significant danger to the Philippines later this week, but uncertainty remains high in its future track.
Quoting 147. luvtogolf:



Hopefully we are in transition between fronts that weekend. I need good weather in Ponte Vedra Beach


I think there is a good chance weather will be good for you that weekend but again it all depends on how far west this trough digs as the further west it is the longer it takes the front to get here. All about timing and the forecast is tricky but if I had to wager a bet I suspect you will be fine that weekend.
For what it's worth: Our new (and probably very savvy, ehem) German global model ICON (I've already talked about it, lol) shows Hagupit hitting the Philippines. Unfortunately only a map (on test run) of the Northern Hemisphere 77h out is available here. You see Hagupit in the upper right corner (74h out; maybe showing 910mb?); wait for the next run to see whether the typhoon is going right into the islands or just grazing.


Saved image. Click it to enlarge.
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

FOR MONDAY THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
OF THE US REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS KEEPS MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION. THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE BIT MORE AMPLIFICATION BUT
ONLY OVER THE SE US AND NO SO MUCH FOR FLORIDA. CONSIDERING THE
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NOW
THE FORECAST IS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE GFS SOLUTION. AT THE PRESENT
TIME ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST ONLY INCLUDES A FEW SHOWERS FOR NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THE FIRST FRONT PASSES A SECOND COLD FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING (FRIDAY AT 00Z)
Quoting 152. StormTrackerScott:



I think there is a good chance weather will be good for you that weekend but again it all depends on how far west this trough digs as the further west it is the longer it takes the front to get here. All about timing and the forecast is tricky but if I had to wager a bet I suspect you will be fine that weekend.


I'll start watching the forecast at 7 days. This time of year the weather is pretty progressive, especially with what appears to be some El Nino influence.

Click for the current loop.
Satellite Service and Division has T7.0 (140 knots) now.

TXPQ28 KNES 032119
TCSWNP
A. 22W (HAGUPIT)
B. 03/2032Z
C. 9.6N
D. 134.6E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...MG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY CDG FOR A DT=7.5
WHEN 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. A SIX HOUR AVERAGE DT WAS
CALCULATED TO BE 7.0 WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING THE RULE LIMITING CHANGES
IN FT TO 1.5 OVER 12 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...MCCARTHY
=

Quoting 156. barbamz:


Click for the current loop.
love this website
22W/STY/H/C4
RI FLAG ON
old info removed pending updated info
Pressure dropped to 935 hPa and intensity increased to 90 knots (10 mins)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
6:00 AM JST December 4 2014
==================================
Near Caroline Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (935 hPa) located at 9.5N 134.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 10.8N 129.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
NWS Tiyan Guam
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hagupit (22W)
==========================

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH remains in effect for Kayangel in the Republic of Palau

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING remains in effect of Koror in the Republic of Palau

Found this on twitter right now. Track of Haiyan (Yolanda) and - probably - the Euro-forecast for Hagupit (Ruby). Different angle, same spot.
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) intensity estimate showing a recent round of rapid intensification..
Is is common for Typhoon's to get this strong in December?
95 knots from PAGASA

** WTPH21 RPMM 031800 ***
TC WARNING 02

TY {HAGUPIT} (1422) TIME 031800 UTC
00 09.2N 135.4E 948HPA 49M/S

P06HR WNW AT 07M/S
P+24 10.5N 130.1E
P+48 11.1N 126.8E
P+72 11.4N 124.6E
NOAA's ADT..

2014DEC03 210100 6.6 915.2mb +4.4 129.6kt 6.6 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -34.43 -84.18 EYE -99 IR 97.7 9.61 -134.46 COMBO MTSAT2 16.7
PAGASA

At 4:00 am today, the eye of typhoon "RUBY" was located based on all available data at 942 km east northeast of hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur or 1, 023 km east of Surigao City (9.4°N, 134.8°E), with maximum sustained winds of 95 knots near the center and gustiness of up to 115 knots. It is forecast to move west northwest at 14 knots.
Quoting 165. luvtogolf:

Is is common for Typhoon's to get this strong in December?
sometimes
The GFS and its ensembles are in unanimous agreement for recurvature east of the Philippines, while the ECMWF and its ensembles are in unanimous agreement for a landfall very near where Haiyan hit just over a year ago. It's never a good sign to have this much discrepancy in the track of a powerful and potentially catastrophic typhoon only three days out. If I lived in the Philippines, I would be taking all possible precautions to protect my life right now.


Latest Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS, showing the formation of the strong eye of Hagupit and fortunately avoiding - wait, what is this? Probably: - Palau which was hit by Haiyan.
The Philippines take the most crap from T.C's.Not only that but to add insult to injury they are a third world country having to deal with horrendous events like Heiyan.
did you know that LSU Earth Scan lab lists the storms that did not occur as unborn? 
Well the CPC seems to still believe warmth will reign the first two weeks of december. No major cold for Florida. So far thats still a long shot lol. Crow shall be served.



WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 22W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 9.3N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 10.4N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 11.3N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 11.7N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.8N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 134.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

Sun's up:


Latest WU-track: more northern than Haiyan, but still hitting some islands as a Cat 5.
Uh okay..
Quoting 165. luvtogolf:

Is is common for Typhoon's to get this strong in December?


In December 1944 the U.S. Pacific fleet during operations (i.e. not exceptionally vulnerable at port) was severely damaged by a strong TC, probably cat 4 and maybe cat 5 intensity. Intense TC in December are a part of the West Pacific climatology though not as common as in boreal Autumn.

Quoting 165. luvtogolf:

Is is common for Typhoon's to get this strong in December?

Sure. Typhoon Bopha is a good example.

Link
Quoting 176. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sun's up:


this thing is going to be on the edge of your seat forecast up to 6 hrs from impact

Daylight for a bad beauty.
its moving up fast
Overcast and rainy in West Palm. Temp a cool 71. Was not expecting this today!
Quoting 165. luvtogolf:

Is is common for Typhoon's to get this strong in December?


It doesn't happen that often, since there are less typhoons, nevertheless there were several supertyphoons in December, for example Bopha in 2012, Faxai in 2001, Paka in 1997 or Kim in 1986. The strongest of them, Paka, reached a 1-min-average of 160 knots!
Quoting 165. luvtogolf:

Is is common for Typhoon's to get this strong in December?
Its not unusual..In fact , in December of 1944 , a fleet of U.S. Navy ships were hit by Typhoon Cobra Killing 790 men...




Formed December 13, 1944
Dissipated December 20, 1944[1]
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: (145 mph)

Lowest pressure 26.78 inHg
Fatalities 790 U.S., unknown elsewhere
Areas affected Philippine Sea.



An oiler struggles to maintain her position.



USS Cowpens during Typhoon Cobra, 18 December 1944.
Hagupit could hit the same areas like Angela in 1995.

source: wikipedia
48 hour forecast from the Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center



EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS

Close to 185 mph.


Quoting 165. luvtogolf:

Is is common for Typhoon's to get this strong in December?


It's not unusual to get strong typhoons later into the season (1997, 2001, 2003 and others have had strong typhoons in November/December). It's just unusual that 3 years in the row there have been very strong Typhoons so late into the season (Bopha 2012, Haiyan 2013 & now Hagupit 2014). Usually after October activity tends to wind down and it's only every other year or so that you get a strong late season typhoon.
Looks like the Atlantic hurricane season is heating up ... in Italy

Very mild with fog till 11 a.m. 57/72 Fog already on islands, should spread to me soon.

Quoting 182. barbamz:


Daylight for a bad beauty.


Serious, this reminds me Haiyan.
Please not again. Cmon! It was only a year ago!

Dang... God forbid this thing takes the same track the 12z Euro is forecasting.
Quoting 178. washingtonian115:

Uh okay..


I don't like the sharp eastern cutoff. Just west of me gets near a foot and I only get a few inches. Like, come on now.
Reassuring image.


Tacloban evacuation underway for Hagupit
By Helen Flores | December 04, 2014
This time, no one is taking any chances.
Communities were evacuated, schools were suspended and a ministerial meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum was moved to Manila as areas along the path of what is believed to be another super typhoon began moving out of harm's way yesterday.
How to keep Super Typhoon Yolanda survivors still living in tents safe is another problem facing Tacloban City officials as a new, powerful cyclone threatens to bring giant waves ashore, possibly on the weekend.
Vice Mayor Jerry Yaokasin said about 500 families were still living in tents more than a year after waves up to 23 feet tall driven ashore by Yolanda (Haiyan) destroyed their homes.
The 500 and some 3,000 other families housed in temporary shelters are the priority in case the city government orders a mandatory evacuation, he said.
Residents of coastal villages and landslide-prone communities were told yesterday to move to designated evacuation areas, as Typhoon Ruby (international name Hagupit) barreled toward the Visayas with winds of up to 140 kph and gusts of 170 kph. Hagupit is Filipino for lash or whip. ...


Good night from Europe (morning post on medicane Xandra is saved on my blog).
Wasn't Hagupit a category 3 this morning? Wow, it must've underwent an RI while I was at school. There's a blogger from the Philippines who might be affected.
Quoting 198. Doppler22:


I don't like the sharp eastern cutoff. Just west of me gets near a foot and I only get a few inches. Like, come on now.
This is the canadian we're talking about...

TylerStanfeild If they've learned anything from Heiyan I think they'll be much more prepared.
Quoting 177. barbamz:


Latest WU-track: more northern than Haiyan, but stil hitting some islands as a Cat 5.


God help the Philippines.
latest still image

22W/STY/H/C4
RI FLAG ON
Quoting 165. luvtogolf:

Is is common for Typhoon's to get this strong in December?


The last one was Bopha in 2012.
Would put money on the ECMWF and the ECMWF EPS for Hagupit. Trough flow looks more zonal than meridional in the local region which would allow the system to come farther west.
Super Typhoon Hagupit: Hagupit (known as Ruby in the Philippines) has reached “super typhoon” — roughly equivalent to a category 4 of 5 hurricane — status, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 150 mph, and the storm appears on track to become one of the strongest on Earth this year.

There are still some questions as to exactly where the storm tracks, as detailed by CWG’s Angela Fritz earlier today, yet consensus is growing that the Philippines will take a pretty severe hit from this storm.
Quoting 196. TylerStanfield:

Please not again. Cmon! It was only a year ago!


210. vis0
i now this has to be removed (might be seen only by moderators) since its not weather related ALSO others will use this site for anything that bothers them   My heart is broken and i cannot allow myself not to post the instructions below as a way of letting others know how some might feel of this/these injustices on any blog site i use.


PROTEST THE DEATH OF THE NOT GUILTY VICTIMS of law enforcement.
GO TO ROCKEFELLER TREE LIGHTING NOW
NO VIOLENCE
AS XMAS SONGS ARE SUNG
(in the spirit of Christmas, let it be known how you feel
as to unarmed people being killed)
TOGETHER RAISE YOUR HANDS
when you raise your hands
sing TOGETHER
STOP KILLING THE UNARMED

keep repeating that ONLY







my 22cents::


 i edited the VIDEO tape we received through "the right to now acts"/FBI
you see of the man that died on staten island  FOR SEVERAL PUBLIC
ACCESS SHOWS SO I HEARD THE ENTIRE VIDEO and i find it amazing knowing
all i heard and the not caring by 3 officers... (1 officer was in a low
voice pleading other officers not to treat the now dead man so harshly) 
...nothing as far as the first line of protection to the dead man was
presented and has to go to a civil case, cause the man dies cause he was
asthmatic or heavy the man sold trinkets while across the street hard
drugs are sold but those (i understand the ban also) MY APOLOGY for
making the job of moderator harder than it already is.










,peace

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery



From above,

However, during the past few months, the trade winds have weakened in the Western Pacific, as the ocean has moved towards an El Niño-like state (as of this week, ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific had reached the threshold of "moderate" El Niño conditions.) Weaker east-to-west blowing surface winds means that warm water in the Western Pacific can slosh eastwards towards South America, resulting in a weaker North Equatorial Current in the waters east of the Philippines, and less warm water and heat energy to fuel typhoons threatening those islands.

Figure 2. Ocean temperatures at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) on December 1, 2013 (top), shortly after the passage of Super Typhoon Haiyan, and on December 1, 2014 (bottom.) Note how weaker east-to-west trade winds near the surface in 2014 have led to a weaker North Equatorial Current, resulting in much cooler waters to the east of the Philippines compared to in 2013. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Jeff Masters
The last time I saw a impressive CDO like that in the Atlantic was Wilma
Seven Basins
There are seven tropical cyclone "basins" where storms occur on a regular basis:
1. Atlantic basin, including the North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea
2. Northeast Pacific basin.from Mexico to about the dateline
3. Northwest Pacific basin.from the dateline to Asia including the South China Sea
4. North Indian basin, including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea
5. Southwest Indian basin.from Africa to about 100E
6. Southeast Indian/Australian basin (100E to 142E)
7. Australian/Southwest Pacific basin (142E to about 120W)

Tropical Cyclone Basins

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, approximately 69 percent of the tropical cyclones occur in the Northern Hemisphere, while only 31 percent can be found in the Southern Hemisphere. Approximately 12 percent occur in the Atlantic Ocean, 57 percent occur in the Pacific and the remaining 31 percent occur in the Indian Ocean.

In June 2003 we started providing global near-real time estimates of tropical cyclone heat potential in the seven basins during all year.
Quoting 209. Gearsts:




My sister in law is about ready to take a direct hit from Hagupit.
She was just visiting us in Norther CAL.

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1 km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)



Getting some more of that wet stuff at the moment.
Quoting 215. cytochromeC:



My sister in law is about ready to take a direct hit from Halyan.
She was just visiting us in Norther CAL.
Hagupit...prayers to your S.I.L and the folks that may be hit..
As the sun continues to rise over Hagupit, its cloud tops are beginning warm a little bit. I imagine this is because of the incoming solar radiation on the CDO. Clouds have a very reflective albedo, but it doesn't reflect all radiation. I noticed this occurring in Haiyan last year too. Barring any structural changes, I imagine they'll cool back down a little bit again when the sun sets.

Quoting 53. JohnLonergan:

More on the story in #52:

Joe Romm: 2014 Headed Toward Hottest Year On Record — Here’s Why That’s Remarkable

What is remarkable, as the WMO explains, is that we’re headed toward record high global temps “in the absence of a full El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).” We get an El Niño “when warmer than average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific combine, in a self-reinforcing loop, with atmospheric pressure systems,” which affects weather patterns around the world.
It’s usually the combination of the long-term manmade warming trend and the regional El Niño warming pattern that leads to new global temperature records. But not this year.
Here’s a revealing chart from Skeptical Science courtesy of environmental scientist Dana Nuccitelli of NASA’s temperature data (with the projection for 2014 in black and white):




222. Inyo
Quoting 220. 1900hurricane:

As the sun continues to rise over Hagupit, its cloud tops are beginning warm a little bit. I imagine this is because of the incoming solar radiation on the CDO. Clouds have a very reflective albedo, but it doesn't reflect all radiation. I noticed this occurring in Haiyan last year too. Barring any structural changes, I imagine they'll cool back down a little bit again when the sun sets.




I believe this is also influenced by changes in relative temperature... the ocean in hurricane/typhoon areas is very warm and at night the air cools allowing for more intense convection... kind of the reverse form of summer thunderstorms on land. Of course the sun may warm the clouds some too.


winds will go up to 165 mph soon!
The Typhoon now gaining some latitude....as expected



Carrier with deck at 50 ft..
Quoting 137. CybrTeddy:

Holy smokes!






The scary thing is, the structure of it looks eerily similar to Haiyan in structure, hopefully the GFS is right and the ECMWF is wrong. But I sure wouldn't bet on it if I lived there, its a crap shoot in terms of probabilistic.

It's very odd that a violent storm that looks so similar in structure is in the same area so soon after.
WARNING EXTREME TROPICAL CYCLONE

22W/STY/H/C5
RI FLAG ON



my god do you see the eye of this Typhoon Hagupit !! i do not wanted to get hit by this Typhoon
scary looking Typhoon Hagupit moving west here!! winds 155 mph..
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2014 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 9:50:23 N Lon : 133:54:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.9mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -6.7C Cloud Region Temp : -82.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 103km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.3 degrees





Definitely 3 hours of wnw now..and that is very good as any deflection N from Due West will shunt Surge values as well...




Cat 5!!

22W HAGUPIT 141204 0000 9.8N 133.9E WPAC 155 907


starting to move wnw now..
Quoting 234. Tropicsweatherpr:

Cat 5!!

22W HAGUPIT 141204 0000 9.8N 133.9E WPAC 155 907
wow a cat 5 storm
Upgraded to the fifth category of a named typhoon

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
9:00 AM JST December 4 2014
==================================
Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (915 hPa) located at 9.8N 133.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
210 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 10.8N 129.7E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 10.9N 127.3E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 10.8N 125.0E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Overland Philippines (Visayas)
2014DEC03 233200 7.2 894.7 +4.3 146.0 7.2 7.3 7.4 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF -8.52 -81.94 EYE 15 IR 97.6 9.90 -133.81

Raw is near 7.5 from Tokyo Advance Dvorak Technique.
Quoting 202. washingtonian115:

This is the canadian we're talking about...

TylerStanfeild If they've learned anything from Heiyan I think they'll be much more prepared.


Luckily the local agencies haven't budged much from the track taking it over the Philippines. It still is pretty bad when the models are fighting over to resolutions with such a violent storm.
Quoting 125. 1900hurricane:


I think that intensity estimate might even be a little underdone. Hagupit is going bonkers.


Quoting 234. Tropicsweatherpr:

Cat 5!!

22W HAGUPIT 141204 0000 9.8N 133.9E WPAC 155 907

Lol.

Okay, I'll go with 165kt.
WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, ALSO SEEN IN A
031758Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOST RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGE DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS DESPITE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES LIMITED BY CONSTRAINTS FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 22W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 48, EXPECT THE SUPER
TYPHOON TO SLOW DOWN AS A SMALL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND CREATES A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL START TO TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AT THIS TIMEFRAME.
EXPECT FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 160 KTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE
MODELS. THE GFS AND COAMPS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM MOVING POLEWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR THOUGH TAU
120 BEFORE SLIGHTLY TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA. OPPOSING THAT, THE
ECMF TRACKER HAS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST INTO CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES INDICATING THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS NOT
PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE TRACK OF HAGUPIT. THE
NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS BEEN SHIFTING BETWEEN THE TWO PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ENCOMPASSES ELEMENTS OF BOTH OF
THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING WELL ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS INCREASING IN SIZE. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TURN POLEWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE
STR THOUGH TAU 96. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, THE ELONGATED STR IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL CONTRIBUTE
IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LUZON.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO THE SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO, WITH THE SYSTEM EITHER SIGNIFICANTLY
RECURVING EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES OR TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.//
NNNN

December Thaw
Yes, the new month may feel warmer than November in some areas.
Next Week: Widespread Warmth, But Cool Interruption For Some
Recent computer forecasts are suggesting an interruption to the pattern across roughly the eastern one-third of the country next week.

A dip in the jet stream may bring cooler weather to the East Coast by way of the Midwest. It would be a passing puff of chilly air for the Midwest, but the more December-like air may set up shop from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast for a longer period of time next week. Still, current indications suggest that air mass will only be slightly colder than average for this time of year.

Meanwhile, confidence remains extremely high that very warm weather will persist next week and even into the following week from the Plains westward, occasionally intruding farther east into parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. The warmth may expand back to the East Coast as well for the week before Christmas, according to current medium-range forecast models.

Two major clusters of models called ensembles -- one run by the European forecasting consortium and one by the U.S. government -- both agree strongly on a bull's-eye of warmth over the Central and Northern Plains, where temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average could park for days on end -- possibly well over a week -- during mid-December.

As the 6-to-10-day temperature outlook from NOAA shows (see inset map), the chance of above-average temperatures is higher than 90 percent in parts of the West next week -- a remarkably high level of confidence that far into the future.

Meanwhile, with that possibility of some cool air being whisked southeastward and getting stuck, most of Florida is now ironically painted a cool blue -- signaling a possibility of temperatures trending below average next week.Perspective: Cold Spells Dominate 2014
While 2014 has certainly had its warm days, they have tended to be the exception rather than the rule in much of the central and eastern U.S.

In fact, temperatures have been below average for the year to date across most of the country east of the Rockies. Temperatures have been farthest below average in a swath encompassing the entire Mississippi River Valley and much of the Great Lakes. In these areas, temperatures were 2 to 4 degrees below the historical average for the first 11 months of the year, according to data from the High Plains Regional Climate Center.

It's been the eighth-coldest year to date on record in Illinois, based on NOAA climate analysis for January through October. Missouri, Iowa, Indiana and Arkansas are also having one of their 12 coldest years of the past 120. (State-by-state data through November will be released in mid-December.)

For cities such as Chicago and Minneapolis, even a December with just average temperatures would result in 2014 being the coolest calendar year since 1996.

The pattern is well represented in the number of record highs and lows so far this year. Through Nov. 30, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center says there have been 33,013 record high temperatures in the Lower 48 this year -- but also 47,402 record lows. For just the month of November, there were more than four times as many record lows (8,977) as record highs (2,022).

One part of the country, however, has been consistently warm. California, Nevada and Arizona are experiencing their warmest year to date on record.

And the warm weather isn't going away there, either -- even though sometimes big pattern changes take weather away from one region and move it somewhere else, the Southwest will hold on to its warmth this time even as the rest of the country shakes off the frosty conditions.

The shift to a warmer regime just puts the central and eastern U.S. where most of the rest of the planet has been all year; 2014 is on track to be the warmest year on record worldwide.


chances of become Tropical Cyclone "KATE" is getting slimmer [ 99S (01U) ]
Quoting 233. Patrap:

Definitely 3 hours of wnw now..and that is very good as any deflection N from Due West will shunt Surge values as well...





Not that I want anyone to get hit , I hope it avoids regions that were devastated by Haiyan,, I remember after residents of Moore OK were hit twice by F-4 or 5,s twice in a rather short period , putting the words on there marquis " O.K.. Lord, now its getting personal...
Water Vapor Loop

RainBow IR Loop

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 01U
8:00 AM WST December 4 2014
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 14.5S 92.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 15.4S 93.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.3S 94.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 19.0S 94.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 20.3S 93.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================
The system was located using infrared and microwave imagery but with no clear signature, the position is moderately uncertain.

Latest Dvorak is weighted towards MET and PAT. A curved band is not evident and a shear pattern has been used. With an uncertain position, the DT from the shear pattern is also treated as uncertain. MET, PAT and thus CI are all 2.0.

ADT is giving an FT of 3.0 but using a central dense overcast pattern type and thus weighted down. CIRA AMSU is 35 knots 1 minute mean for the last two NOAA19 passes. Intensity at 18UTC was 30 knots and based on the cloud signature, there hasn't been significant weakening or strengthening. Current intensity is thus set to 30 knots.

1800UTC CIMMS shear was about 10 knots with stronger shear to the south associated with an upper trough. This, combined with some dry air wrapping into the system [TPW animation] should limit development and then weaken the system on Friday. Cooler sea surface temperatures below 26C should only reached [on the forecast track] early Saturday. System is still forecast to reach tropical cyclone intensity by 06UTC, maintain 35 knots until 18Z tonight then weaken.

Gales may persist on the southern side until later Friday due to a ridge of high pressure to the south. Latest models indicate this is becoming less likely.
Quoting 246. hydrus:

Not that I want anyone to get hit , I hope it avoids regions that were devastated by Haiyan,, I remember after residents of Moore OK were hit twice by F-4 or 5,s twice in a rather short period , putting the words on there marquis " O.K.. Lord, now its getting personal...


Quoting 249. Patrap:

Water Vapor Loop


Man that looks bad...I fricken hope that this hits some shear, cooler water or something...I never forgot the day we had a strong 4 coming at us...My lil sis asked, whats gonna happen.? I said in a calm voice " wer gonna get creamed.
Quoting 218. TimSoCal:



Getting some more of that wet stuff at the moment.

We got a Gully Washer over here for about 20 minutes around 4 PM.
There was Mud everywhere. There is an small area that burned
below the Indian hills Golf Course a couple of years ago. That might
have been the source of the mud, it was nasty, water everywhere.
Quoting 199. Grothar:

Reassuring image.




With how potent Hagupit is already, I wouldn't count on the GFS's resolution until I see a Northwesterly motion.

The trough extends into southern China, but it looks very flat and isn't convincingly digging down deep enough to make me believe that it will be capable of recurving this super typhoon before smacking the Philippines.

The pattern is very zonal which leads me to believe that I would count on a landfall more than a recurve.


no winter for the west for a few weeks!
where is this storm going??
Evening all.
Quoting 205. TimTheWxMan:



The last one was Bopha in 2012.
There's been a trend in recent years for Nov / Dec / Jan storms to impact the southern Philippines in particular as major storms. I haven't done enough study of the WPac's records to say whether this is part of an oscillating pattern, correlated perhaps to ENSO or a similar larger wx pattern, or whether this is something unusual in the recorded history of TCs there.

I do remember Bopha's track and intensity surprised a lot of Filipinos.

Quoting 211. Patrap:


Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Wow. Getting to be a pretty baby.
Quoting 263. BahaHurican:

Wow. Getting to be a pretty baby.


Think its way past the baby stage !!!
Pagasa website having problems now. =/
Quoting 213. washingtonian115:

The last time I saw a impressive CDO like that in the Atlantic was Wilma

Seems like you can see a CDO like that near the Philippines at least once a year. The WPac has the best conditions for these smooth-tops to grow, IMO.... all that TCHP with no interrupters....

Quoting 227. Jedkins01:



The scary thing is, the structure of it looks eerily similar to Haiyan in structure, hopefully the GFS is right and the ECMWF is wrong. But I sure wouldn't bet on it if I lived there, its a crap shoot in terms of probabilistic.

It's very odd that a violent storm that looks so similar in structure is in the same area so soon after.
More like third storm in 3 years... Bopha, Haiyan, and now this. I really hope the GFS verifies as opposed to the Euro.
Quoting 266. BahaHurican:

Seems like you can see a CDO like that near the Philippines at least once a year. The WPac has the best conditions for these smooth-tops to grow, IMO.... all that TCHP with no interrupters....

More like third storm in 3 years... Bopha, Haiyan, and now this. I really hope the GFS verifies as opposed to the Euro.

Tropopause height is higher in the West Pacific, allowing for taller (and subsequently colder) convection.
If there's any good news, it goes well north of the area impacted most by Haiyan.
Damm'it Jim, itsa gonna be close.


TPPN11 PGTW 040033

A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 03/2332Z

C. 9.88N

D. 133.73E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. VIS EMBEDDED DISTANCE >60NM
YIELDING E#7.0. EYE ADJUSTMENT WELL DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE. +.5.
YIELDING DT OF 7.5. MET IS AT 6.5, RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND PT
IS AT 6.0. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1911Z 9.30N 135.00E SSMS


FRYE
WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 133.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 133.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 11.0N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 11.5N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.8N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.7N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.1N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.7N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 133.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM NORTH
OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 50
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
NORTH OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (SMI)
DEPICTS VERY TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A 20NM EYE
FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND
AFOREMENTIONED EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 155 KNOTS DUE TO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY PGTW AND
NSOF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STY 22W
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THOUGH TAU 48. EXPECT
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY FURTHER
INTENSIFY, TO A PEAK OF 170 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. BY TAU 72,
EXPECT THE SUPER TYPHOON TO SLOW DOWN AS A SMALL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND CREATES A SMALL WEAKNESS IN
THE STR ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE
MODELS. THE GFS AND COAMPS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM MOVING POLEWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR THOUGH TAU
120 BEFORE SLIGHTLY TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE ECMF AND NOW THE
GFDN TRACKER, HOWEVER, HAS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES INDICATING THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS NOT
PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF STY
HAGUPIT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ENCOMPASSES ELEMENTS OF BOTH OF
THESE SCENARIOS. UNDERSTANDING THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WELL ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS INCREASING IN SIZE,
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TURN
POLEWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR THOUGH TAU 96. HOWEVER, BEYOND
THAT, THE ELONGATED STR IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL CONTRIBUTE IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM ON A
WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LUZON. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN
THE MODELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO,
WITH THE SYSTEM EITHER SIGNIFICANTLY RECURVING EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES OR TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.//
NNNN

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZDEC2014//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S
91.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 91.5E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031333Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTROID WITH SOME
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

PERFECT EYE

EXTREME TROPICAL CYCLONE
22W/STY/H/C5
RI FLAG FLAG
155 knots and it doesn't look like it wants to slow down either as the eye continues to warm.


22W
ESTIMATED CLOSES LANDFALL POINT 12.75N/-125.25E

Quoting 222. Inyo:



I believe this is also influenced by changes in relative temperature... the ocean in hurricane/typhoon areas is very warm and at night the air cools allowing for more intense convection... kind of the reverse form of summer thunderstorms on land. Of course the sun may warm the clouds some too.

That far up in the atmosphere is too insulated from the surface by the air below to have any real discernible temperature change.
Quoting 266. BahaHurican:

Seems like you can see a CDO like that near the Philippines at least once a year. The WPac has the best conditions for these smooth-tops to grow, IMO.... all that TCHP with no interrupters....

More like third storm in 3 years... Bopha, Haiyan, and now this. I really hope the GFS verifies as opposed to the Euro.


Bopha (2012) - Mindanao (south island), Haiyan (2013)- Visayas (middle islands)
Hagupit (2014) Luzon (north)?....
basically thats 3 terrible typhoons in 3 years, in 3 different parts of the country. I just hope the GFS is right this time (though i don't have much trust in any model right now)
Quoting 267. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Tropopause height is higher in the West Pacific, allowing for taller (and subsequently colder) convection.

Especially this time of year. The Hadley Cell retreats pretty far to the south, but is very deep. Only these low latitude tropical cyclones like Bopha, Haiyan, and now Hagupit are able to take advantage of it.
Quoting 263. BahaHurican:

Wow. Getting to be a pretty baby.
DOOM!!
Quoting 280. nwobilderburg:



Bopha (2012) - Mindanao (south island), Haiyan (2013)- Visayas (middle islands)
Hagupit (2014) Luzon (north)?....
basically thats 3 terrible typhoons in 3 years, in 3 different parts of the country. I just hope the GFS is right this time (though i don't have much trust in any model right now)


A bit like Cindy/Katrina (far southeast Louisiana), Rita (western Louisiana), and then Gustav (south-central Louisiana). I remember them well.
284. Inyo
Quoting 279. 1900hurricane:


That far up in the atmosphere is too insulated from the surface by the air below to have any real discernible temperature change.


hmm... that makes sense... but i thought there was some mechanism by which tropical systems over the ocean got stronger at night. I thought it had to do with water temperatures remaining the same and air temps cooling but i'm by no means a tropical weather expert so i probably have it mixed up.
Quoting 284. Inyo:



hmm... that makes sense... but i thought there was some mechanism by which tropical systems over the ocean got stronger at night. I thought it had to do with water temperatures remaining the same and air temps cooling but i'm by no means a tropical weather expert so i probably have it mixed up.


dmax
Quoting 276. CybrTeddy:

155 knots and it doesn't look like it wants to slow down either as the eye continues to warm.




Looks like it MIGHT have reached peak intensity judging by the cloud tops warming slightly in the last few frames.
Going to be a tough call on whether or not it's at peak intensity. Generally, a banded structure (notice the poleward banding) shifting to a more central convective/CDO structure presages intensification, but so far the bands have not disappeared.

Of course there's more to it than that, but it's definitely a factor.
2014DEC04 023200 7.5 883.2mb 4.2 155.0kt 7.5 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.70 -80.46 EYE 20 IR 97.6 10.17 -133.07 COMBO MTSAT2 18.3
Such boring weather in the US. Hope that winter weather gets rockin' and rollin' come January at the latest.
Jeff's stating rain not surge being the biggest threat now looking like wishful thinking. This is a beast of a storm, my God, could we be looking at another Cat 5 typhoon making landfall near where Tacloban was crushed? This is the storm of the year clearly, I hope we've seen this maxed and weakening will happen before landfall. Scary.
JTWC's forecast puts it north of Haiyan's ground zero. But that's not that good a news. It also means it's getting more and more likely that it will hit the Philippines' economic center.
Storm this strong forming south of the Equator is a record in itself, isn't it? Really don't know, but I know those in harms way now have a wealth of information they didn't have last year. The Philippines should handle this much better than last years strongest storm in the history ever recorded.
Quoting 292. ArvinA:

JTWC's forecast puts it north of Haiyan's ground zero. But that's not that good a news. It also means it's getting more and more likely that it will hit the Philippines' economic center.


Plus on a track like that, ground zero would be under the moist southerly inflow, leading to widespread flooding rains.
Quoting 283. KoritheMan:



A bit like Cindy/Katrina (far southeast Louisiana), Rita (western Louisiana), and then Gustav (south-central Louisiana). I remember them well.

i was only 10 in 2005, so i don't really remember
Tropical Storm Risk has Hagupit directly hitting Manilla (most densely populated city in the world) in around 120 hrs as a Cat 5 (150knots) down about 20 knots on peak intensity. Obviously plenty of time for this to recurve etc. but if the predicted course were to eventuate it would be a massive disaster - probably tens of thousands of deaths.
Quoting 293. DeepSeaRising:

Storm this strong forming south of the Equator is a record in itself, isn't it? Really don't know, but I know those in harms way now have a wealth of information they didn't have last year. The Philippines should handle this much better than last years strongest storm in the history ever recorded.

Well, first off, Hagupit is at 9.8N, which is above the equator. Typhoon Louise in 1964 became a Category 5 at 7.3N and Typhoon Bopha in 2012 became a Category 5 at 7.4N.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
12:00 PM JST December 4 2014
==================================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (910 hPa) located at 10.2N 133.1 has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
210 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 10.9N 129.4E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
Looks like 105 knots from PAGASA

** WTPH21 RPMM 040000 ***
TC WARNING 03
TY {HAGUPIT}(1422) TIME 040000 UTC
00 09.8N 133.8E 938HPA 54M/S
P06HR WNW AT 05M/S
P+24 11.0N 129.0E
P+48 11.8N 125.6E
P+72 12.4N 122.2E
PAGASA=
Quoting 239. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Ya'll noticing the retrograding action on this? Implication is regardless of wind strength the rainy wx hangs over N Philippines for a while.... :o/

Quoting 280. nwobilderburg:



Bopha (2012) - Mindanao (south island), Haiyan (2013)- Visayas (middle islands)
Hagupit (2014) Luzon (north)?....
basically thats 3 terrible typhoons in 3 years, in 3 different parts of the country. I just hope the GFS is right this time (though i don't have much trust in any model right now)
It's the time of year I was thinking about. If this maintains strength and hits as a cat 4 or 5, it would be the third Nov-Dec storm in 3 years to do so....
Quoting 300. BahaHurican:

Ya'll noticing the retrograding action on this? Implication is regardless of wind strength the rainy wx hangs over N Philippines for a while.... :o/



I was just thinking the JTWC forecast is brutal as far as the storm slowing way down & how the intensity chart finishes maxing out & dwells through that period.



Quoting 300. BahaHurican:

Ya'll noticing the retrograding action on this? Implication is regardless of wind strength the rainy wx hangs over N Philippines for a while.... :o/

It's the time of year I was thinking about. If this maintains strength and hits as a cat 4 or 5, it would be the third Nov-Dec storm in 3 years to do so....

ya gfs says a circle dance back upon itself till it wrings itself out we shall see shortly
22W/STY/H/C5
RI FLAG FLAG
it will maintain now maybe slight loss of energy during daylight hrs regain after dark this is a dangerous storm do not assume otherwise
Hopefully there are not many errors while making this comment. (The PAGASA website was down so had to refer to the live twitter feed)

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TYPHOON RUBY
11:00 AM PhST December 4 2014
=============================
Typhoon RUBY has intensified further as it continues to move over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ruby (HAGUPIT) [938 hPa] located at 10.1N, 133.3E or 860 km east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gustiness up to 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #1

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Samar
4. Biliran
5. Leyte
6. Southern Leyte.

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island
2. Surigao del Sur
3. Dinagat.

Additional Information
======================
• Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
• Banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
• Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
• Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
• Sea travel of small seacraft and fishing boats is risky

Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon. “RUBY” is still far to affect any part of the country. However, its combined effect with the enhance northeasterly winds will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon, over the seaboards of Visayas and over the seaboard of northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Fisherfolks and those using small seacraft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Hagupit Terra pass.

ESPI is-0.39 and still falling


Hagupit..click pic for loop.
What is ESPI, skyepony?
People are panic buying here on Leyte Island. Ruby is not as strong as Yolanda; but the memories are still in our minds.
The intensity of Ruby/Habupit is a lot stronger than than originally predicted.

PS: I was over on Dr Jeff's other blog waiting for posts. Didn't see this new one.
Quoting 305. HadesGodWyvern:

Hopefully there are not many errors while making this comment. (The PAGASA website was down so had to refer to the live twitter feed)

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TYPHOON RUBY
11:00 AM PhST December 4 2014
=============================
Typhoon RUBY has intensified further as it continues to move over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ruby (HAGUPIT) [938 hPa] located at 10.1N, 133.3E or 860 km east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gustiness up to 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #1

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Samar
4. Biliran
5. Leyte
6. Southern Leyte.

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island
2. Surigao del Sur
3. Dinagat.

Additional Information
======================
%u2022 Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
%u2022 Banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
%u2022 Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
%u2022 Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
%u2022 Sea travel of small seacraft and fishing boats is risky

Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5%u201320 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon. %u201CRUBY%u201D is still far to affect any part of the country. However, its combined effect with the enhance northeasterly winds will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon, over the seaboards of Visayas and over the seaboard of northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Fisherfolks and those using small seacraft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Nothing new about that. They don't have the bandwidth. PAGASA needs to be broken up and a dedicated Weather Agency needs to be formed, with is own website and own servers.
These models were run at 2am local time:
Quoting 322. Caimito:

Nothing new about that. They don't have the bandwidth. PAGASA needs to be broken up and a dedicated Weather Agency needs to be formed, with is own website and own servers.


ya. I seen people tweet to PAGASA "Please keep us updated on RUBY"
officially at 7.5 intensity from JMA now.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
15:00 PM JST December 4 2014
==================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (905 hPa) located at 10.4N 132.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
210 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 11.1N 129.0E - 120 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 11.1N 126.8E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.0N 124.5E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Overland Philippines (Visayas)
22W/STY/H/C5
RI FLAG FLAG
Latest 4 models. Not good for us.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 01U
2:00 PM WST December 4 2014
==============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 15.4S 92.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 16.6S 94.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.4S 94.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 19.7S 94.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 20.6S 92.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
====================
The system was difficult to locate with visible, infra-red and microwave imagery.

01U [99S] has weakened due to increasing shear with only limited deep convection, mainly to the east of the low level circulation center. Recent motion was toward the southeast, this should shift to a southerly track on Friday.

Difficult to assign a DT. Trend was weakening and FT/CI was 1.5/2.0. Mean winds set to 30 knots [10 minute average winds].

An ASCAT pass at 0336 UTC showed 30 knot winds to the east and southeast of the low level circulation center and 20/25 knots to the southwest.

CIMSS shear at 06 UTC indicated 10 to 20 knots of shear. This shear will increase further due to the passage of an upper level trough.

Gales may develop in the southeast and southwest quadrants due to interaction with a ridge of high pressure to the south. Please refer to Ocean Warning 3 [IDY21020] for further details.

There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it re-intensifies.
Quoting 319. DonnieBwkGA:

What is ESPI, skyepony?

It's a measure of precipitation across the equatorial pacific. It's sort of a gauge of ENSO in the atmosphere. Many times it sorts of leads the ENSO direction. With an ESPI that low it's hard to see El Nino conditions continuing for the next few months.

It was hovering around -.10 for a few weeks. This is notable drop from last Sunday, like surprisingly big drop.

I went back recently and reviewed the method since I knew TRMM was involved. TRMM is slowly falling out of the sky right now. Some of it's products are no longer available. Guess I started doubting these lower numbers. They use several methods of data gathering & filter out erroneous data & all. Here's more..WOW..-0.41 now.

On the other hand, sort of like last big Kelvin wave the heat came to the surface but doesn't seem to be spreading back to the west along the surface like normal.



Anyone going to the Orion launch?
Another "Medicane" hit Italy yesterday, here an amazing picture taken from the ISS from Italian astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti a few hours before landfall!
https://twitter.com/AstroSamantha
Quoting 329. Caimito:

Latest 4 models. Not good for us.



Hey Caimito, according to the latest Euro-run as shown by the WU-map, Hagupit is heading very close to your hotel in Maasin/Leyte :-(




Saturday evening, 9 p.m. GMT: west of Leyte. Click to enlarge.

Here some very different weather news from eastern Europe (Dec 3).



Dramatic evacuation of Hohe Wand in ice storm
The Local (Austria) Published: 03 Dec 2014 17:02 GMT+01:00
The Hohe Wand mountain ridge in the district of Wiener Neustadt was the scene of dramatic evacuations on Wednesday as the state of emergency continued in Lower Austria, caused by five days of ice storms. ...
Quoting 332. elnino83:

Another "Medicane" hit Italy yesterday, here an amazing picture taken from the ISS from Italian astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti a few hours before landfall!
https://twitter.com/AstroSamantha



Thank you! Although I had a hard time to figure out what I'm looking at, lol. Maybe this here is better after a slight photoshopping (rotated the pic 90degrees to the left and brightened it up a bit)?


Down left: The triangle of Sicily (with the island of Malta even more south), upper left: medicane Xandra leaving Sardinia and approaching the coast of Italy. Should have been in the night of Dec2/Dec3.
Super Typhoon Hagupit

Super Typhoon Hagupit
Last Updated Dec 4, 2014 06 GMT
Location 10.4N 132.4E Movement WNW
Wind 180 MPH

WPac TPW with the development of bad Hagupit.
However, have a good morning, everyone ...
Quoting 333. barbamz:



Hey Caimito, according to the latest Euro-run as shown by the WU-map, Hagupit is heading very close to your hotel in Maasin/Leyte :-(




Saturday evening, 9 p.m. GMT: west of Leyte.
Ha. Not as close as Haiyan was to us. The Wunderground one is the most favorable outcome for us
Quoting 339. Caimito:

Ha. Not as close as Haiyan was to us. The Wunderground one is the most favorable outcome for us


Pascal, the map which I've posted is the "usually reliable" ECMWF-model (displayed by WU) and shows the eye of Hagupit even nearer to your home than Haiyan's eye ever was (Haiyan tracked a bit more to the northwest if memory serves me right). Just saying. But hopefully for you this Euro-track doesn't need to verify.
Still powerful, but as expected Hagupit is starting to feel the shear. Becoming lopsided.



Looks like it's taking about 20kts worth of shear. Not enough to cause rapid weakening, but it is past its peak and will continue to slowly wind down. Heavy rain will be a major threat especially if it slows down.

orion.good.luck
Orion launch delayed to 7:17 AM

Link
Quoting capeflorida:
Orion launch delayed to 7:17 AM

Link


Thanks for the link. I had to click on Media to get it to load on my computer.




The differences of the models concerning the forecast of Hagupit's intensity are as amazing as the split concerning the possible track ...

-------------------------------


Philippines starts evacuations as typhoon Hagupit heads for Haiyan-hit areas
Army and coastguard braced for possible landslides and flash floods in central Philippines as storm builds strength over Pacific
Reuters in Manila, The Guardian, Thursday 4 December 2014 09.45 GMT
PAGASA completely down, thank goodness for twitter.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TYPHOON RUBY
4:00 PM PhST December 4 2014
=============================
Typhoon RUBY has intensified further as it continues to move west northwest towards eastern Visayas

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ruby (HAGUPIT) [933 hPa] located at 10.6N 132.0E or 720 km east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gustiness up to 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #2

Visayas Region
----------------
1.Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Samar
4. Biliran
5. Leyte
6. Southern Leyte

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Dinagat Island
2. Siargao Island

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Albay
3. Sorsogon
4. Masbate including Ticao Island

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Northern Cebu including Bantayan Island
2. Camotes Island
3. Bohol

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Surigao del Sur
3. Camiguin Island
4. Agusan del Norte

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Moderate to heavy rains within 24 to 36 hours are expected over the areas with Public Storm Warning Signals Numbers 2 and 1. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are advised to be alert against possible flash floods and landslides. Moreover, those living near coastal areas are alerted against possible storm surges.

“RUBY” and the Northeast Monsoon will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of northern Luzon, eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon, over the seaboards of Visayas and over the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Fisher folks and those using small seacraft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today
i have not been posting nothing tropical to comment on. this gw argument im not educated enough to voice an opinion either way. helicopters soaring waiting for the orion to go.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
21:00 PM JST December 4 2014
==================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (905 hPa) located at 11.0N 131.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
210 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 11.4N 128.2E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 11.3N 126.2E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.7N 123.7E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Philippines (Visayas)
GFS says the East Flow into FL will have deeper moisture with it next week while the Euro shows cold during this same time frame. It's interesting as the GFS just isn't budging.



Here is the latest GFS and it shows no cold still and now its Thursday and the model continues to not trend toward the Euro.

way the fish have been hitting of recent i doubt if you see another abnormal cold snap for florida
Latest Canadian has trended toward the GFS now. Looks like my cold forecast may not verify. I will gladly trade in the cold for crow just make sure its crispy.

does progress mean you have to listen to more noise? seems that way e cen florida
Local forecast that mirrors the NWS forecast has a gradual cool down next week to more seasonal numbers.
7 day for Fort Myers




Quoting 288. Skyepony:

2014DEC04 023200 7.5 883.2mb 4.2 155.0kt 7.5 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.70 -80.46 EYE 20 IR 97.6 10.17 -133.07 COMBO MTSAT2 18.3

I dig the tropics , but 155 kts is just to breezy.
Eyewall replacement.

The Lower 48 is gonna be given the blast furnace for much of this month. The next week or so will feature some cold shots still with the storm threat in the east in 5-7 days (though that storm looks less likely this morning). But the 10-20 day range is looking very warm, record warm maybe. Some signs of a cool down towards the end of the month, but this warmth will take time to dislodge.





No El Nino declaration yet but the % is raised to 65%.Read the details at My ENSO Blog.
New JTWC forecast is out for Hagupit. They've got it weakened just slightly to 150kts now, and they no longer forecast additional strengthening, which makes sense given the shear and likely beginnings of an EWRC. Track shifting south/west as the 6z GFS came in closer to the Euro. Sounds like evacuations have been ongoing for the vulnerable areas, so hopefully things turn out alright.

The Orion launch is scrubbed for today; another try tomorrow.

Bummer...
Orion launch was scrubbed for today.Time of Fridays launch is 7:07 AM EST.
Quoting 357. MAweatherboy1:

The Lower 48 is gonna be given the blast furnace for much of this month. The next week or so will feature some cold shots still with the storm threat in the east in 5-7 days (though that storm looks less likely this morning). But the 10-20 day range is looking very warm, record warm maybe. Some signs of a cool down towards the end of the month, but this warmth will take time to dislodge.










Track record for any climate model going back through the fall and then back through the whole summer has been coin flip accuracy beyond 5 days. So it may or may not be cold or warm this month, if you predict warm and its warm, you're lucky, if you predict warm and its cold, you're unlucky.
No El Nino declaration yet but the % is raised to 65%.Read the details at My ENSO Blog.


nope....was like a little boy at christmas this morning when i woke up....couldn't wait to check out their update......and they let me down.......i'll be chewing some crow as i expected el nino year of 2014.......however...on a brighter note...if you remember back to last winte...there were articles about a group of german scientists....who had predicted el nino...winter of 2015 in late 2013...they had published their work and findings...it will be fun to watch if they are right.....
Latest Canadian has trended toward the GFS now. Looks like my cold forecast may not verify

hold on here.......someone must have hijacked scotts account......he's actually admitting not being right.....check the weather in hades folks....i think it's freezing
Quoting 364. ricderr:

Latest Canadian has trended toward the GFS now. Looks like my cold forecast may not verify

hold on here.......someone must have hijacked scotts account......he's actually admitting not being right.....check the weather in hades folks....i think it's freezing


I simply CANNOT for the life of me, understand why people get so worked up over the temp forecast beyond the five day range. The accuracy of it, regardless of what the professional mets will say is just not there. The only people that are truly affected that much by temp forecasts are farmers and any farmer worth their salt is going to hedge their bets regardless of the weather forecast.
Quoting 198. Doppler22:


I don't like the sharp eastern cutoff. Just west of me gets near a foot and I only get a few inches. Like, come on now.

yeah same here... big snows just north of me
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Lower 48 is gonna be given the blast furnace for much of this month. The next week or so will feature some cold shots still with the storm threat in the east in 5-7 days (though that storm looks less likely this morning). But the 10-20 day range is looking very warm, record warm maybe. Some signs of a cool down towards the end of the month, but this warmth will take time to dislodge.








this the way i like it cool and Wet in CA warm for the mid W and back E i think we can agreed that this winter is not going to be the same has last winter wish i think is a vary good thing
Quoting 347. HadesGodWyvern:

PAGASA completely down, thank goodness for twitter.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TYPHOON RUBY
4:00 PM PhST December 4 2014
=============================
Typhoon RUBY has intensified further as it continues to move west northwest towards eastern Visayas

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ruby (HAGUPIT) [933 hPa] located at 10.6N 132.0E or 720 km east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gustiness up to 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #2

Visayas Region
----------------
1.Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Samar
4. Biliran
5. Leyte
6. Southern Leyte

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Dinagat Island
2. Siargao Island

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Albay
3. Sorsogon
4. Masbate including Ticao Island

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Northern Cebu including Bantayan Island
2. Camotes Island
3. Bohol

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Surigao del Sur
3. Camiguin Island
4. Agusan del Norte

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Moderate to heavy rains within 24 to 36 hours are expected over the areas with Public Storm Warning Signals Numbers 2 and 1. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are advised to be alert against possible flash floods and landslides. Moreover, those living near coastal areas are alerted against possible storm surges.

“RUBY” and the Northeast Monsoon will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of northern Luzon, eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon, over the seaboards of Visayas and over the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Fisher folks and those using small seacraft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today

PAGASA always does down when needed most.
Typhoon Rammasun
Formed: July 9, 2014
Dissipated: July 20, 2014





Predicted track for Typhoon Hagupit (PH:Ruby)



Practically a double hit in 5 months for the landfall region of Samar Island.

Hagupit (Ruby) is the 5th Super Typhoon this year.
370. MAstu
The JMA has a pretty pessimistic view on Hagupit (Ruby). It has it making landfall with a minimum CP of between 905 and 915. It also has it going very close to Tacloban City. I know that a lot of people there are still in temporary housing. On the other hand, I imagine they will be quick to evacuate given the events of last year.
Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track



Enhanced Infrared (IR) VIIRS

Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds




Quoting 352. StormTrackerScott:

Latest Canadian has trended toward the GFS now. Looks like my cold forecast may not verify. I will gladly trade in the cold for crow just make sure its crispy.





Verification 001

Don't verify a forecast with another forecast

The appropriate time to determine where the crow flies to is post event.. late next week.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Lower 48 is gonna be given the blast furnace for much of this month. The next week or so will feature some cold shots still with the storm threat in the east in 5-7 days (though that storm looks less likely this morning). But the 10-20 day range is looking very warm, record warm maybe. Some signs of a cool down towards the end of the month, but this warmth will take time to dislodge.







Hue!!!

From WXEastern...

Polar vortex (Currently located over the north pole) is getting ready to take a beating and split into many pieces and head southward as higher heights and pressures surge northward and replace what was lower pressures/heights. This will lower pressures/heights and dump Arctic air in the lower latitudes by copious amounts. Don't let the current warm spell on the east coast fool you. Winter is just getting started!!

Mix this with a very active subtropical jet stream and the result is cold and snowy. It may take til late December(20th) before the coldest values are realized but all signs are now pointing to this. The guidance models haven't really picked up on it just yet but the current weather pattern screams it!!
The Central/Northern Philippians need to heed their warnings! But since this has reached 175 MPH, it might just recurve in the nick of time-giving them only a glancing blow. If not, it'l recurve right over them or to the west of them!
A question for DR> MASTERS, or anyone else really.....

At the bottom of the post above, there is an image of water temps in the equatorial Pacific, and the comment below that say that the SST in that area is relatively low due to weak trade winds creating weak surface currents. (I'm paraphrasing).

I thought the opposite would be true, and that SST would tend to rise with weaker surface winds.

Can someone explain this ?

Thanks.
Quoting 363. ricderr:

No El Nino declaration yet but the % is raised to 65%.Read the details at My ENSO Blog.


nope....was like a little boy at christmas this morning when i woke up....couldn't wait to check out their update......and they let me down.......i'll be chewing some crow as i expected el nino year of 2014.......however...on a brighter note...if you remember back to last winte...there were articles about a group of german scientists....who had predicted el nino...winter of 2015 in late 2013...they had published their work and findings...it will be fun to watch if they are right.....


I am calling this El Nino a hybrid one as things are split in half about things favorable and others not.Let's see if things change in the next 4 weeks that will lead to the January 8 CPC update.
Hi guys,...i need some advice, im flying into manila on dec 7, via tokyo arrive 9:30 p.m. What r the chances now, of getting stuck in tokyo, how reliable is this track? Could it turn west and go south of manila?.....delta wants $2000 to change my flight to next week.....any ideas?...thnx
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
12z GFS is almost completely over to the Euro solution now. Landfall in 2 days near Tacloban. It bends NW a little from there, similar to the JTWC track. With the way things are going though it may just run straight west like the Euro has shown all along.

Quoting 370. MAstu:

The JMA has a pretty pessimistic view on Hagupit (Ruby). It has it making landfall with a minimum CP of between 905 and 915. It also has it going very close to Tacloban City. I know that a lot of people there are still in temporary housing. On the other hand, I imagine they will be quick to evacuate given the events of last year.

Evacuation plan is already in place in Tacloban and some have gone to shelters already. Here in the southern part of Leyte Island people are on standby for evacuation. I would be more optimistic in saying it's first landfall will be the north-eastern tip of Samar island. That would be in line with the JTWC and Wunderground maps
Quoting 380. MAweatherboy1:

12z GFS is almost completely over to the Euro solution now. Landfall in 2 days near Tacloban. It bends NW a little from there, similar to the JTWC track. With the way things are going though it may just run straight west like the Euro has shown all along.



The eye is already on the same latitude as Tacloban City. In order for a direct hit it needs to track due west now, and the last few Sat images are not doing that (Due West). Well not yet anyway.
Haiyan was a direct hit on Tacloban, and yet down in Maasin, the damage was minimum. The difference in Haiyan track and JTWC predicted track for Hagupit is a lot more on the ground that what a map would suggest. 100km to 150km from track makes a huge difference, as I know from Haiyan
is this California's rainy season?........................................... ....................