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Category 3 Typhoon Hagupit Hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:37 PM GMT on December 06, 2014

Typhoon Hagupit made landfall in Dolores, Eastern Samar, at 9:15 pm local time on Saturday, December 6, said the Philippines State weather bureau PAGASA. At landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center rated Hagupit a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, and the Japan Meteorological Agency gave it a central pressure of 935 mb. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and interaction with land helped to slowly weaken Hagupit before landfall. Satellite loops show that the eye is no longer distinct and the cloud tops of the intense eyewall thunderstorms have warmed, indicating weakening. Nevertheless, Hagupit is a very large and intense storm, and will be slow to weaken. The storm brought heavy rains of 1.79" (45 mm) in just one hour to Laoang Municipal Building, Northern Samar, ending at 10 pm local time Saturday.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Hagupit at 05:00 UTC on Saturday December 6, 2014. At the time, Hagupit was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Hagupit taken at 10:15 pm local time, one hour after landfall in Northern Samar Island in the Philippines. Image credit: Project NOAH.

Forecast for Hagupit: storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains are major threats
Hagupit will move west to west-northwest over the weekend at a slow forward speed of 5 -10 mph. The center will be over land much of the time, which will force the storm to weaken; moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 mph will aid this weakening process. Storm surge damage will be very heavy, as Project NOAH is predicting storm surge heights as high as 4.6 meters (15 feet) on the west side of Samar Island at Catbalogan. High winds will also cause widespread destruction, particularly to crops. However, the greatest danger from the storm may come from its rains. Hagupit's slow forward speed will allow torrential rains to fall for a long period of time, and widespread rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches are likely, with some mountainous areas receiving 15 - 25 inches. Since Hagupit is likely to track very close to the capital city of Manila as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon, heavy rains of 10 - 15" could affect this heavily populated part the country resulting in yet another billion-dollar typhoon disaster for the Philippines. Hagupit's closest approach to Manila will likely come around 06 UTC on Monday. In addition, special lahar warnings have been put out for mudslides for two volcanoes along Hagupit's path, Mayan and Bulusan, whose flanks have unstable ash deposits from recent eruptions. A total of 650,000 people have been evacuated for Hagupit, and I am hopeful this effort will keep the death toll relatively low.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation from Typhoon Hagupit from the 06 UTC Saturday run of the GFDL hurricane model. Widespread areas of 8 - 16" (yellow colors), with some areas of 16+ inches were predicted. The capital of Manila was in an area expected to receive 10 - 15" of rain. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Links
If you want to make a charitable donation to storm relief in the Philippines, consider a donation to DirectRelief. As discussed by Dr. Greg Laden in his blog, DirectRelief is a private humanitarian nonprofit organization based in Santa Barbara, California, with a mission to “improve the health and lives of people affected by poverty or emergency situations by mobilizing and providing essential medical resources needed for their care." They have three strategically pre-positioned typhoon modules with enough medicines and supplies to treat 5,000 people for a month following the Hagupit disaster. DirectRelief's Hagupit web page is here.

Storm chaser James Reynolds is in Calbayog on the west coast of Samar Island in the Philippines, which will receive a direct hit from Hagupit. He is offering updates via his Twitter feed.

Latest storm news from Philippine news site rappler.com.

Storm surge expert Hal Needham has a new blog post on storm surge observations from Hagupit, plus a post on the history of storm surges in the Philippines.



Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has launched a month-long fundraising campaign called "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". They aim to raise $20,000 this month. I challenge the wunderground community to show their generosity this giving season: for each dollar donated between now and Monday, I pledge to make a matching donation. Here’s a sampling of what the money will go towards in 2015:

- Holding more Getting It Right conferences, starting in Hampton Roads, Virginia, in late February.

- Launching a traveling photo exhibit – “Disastrous: Left Behind” – in the lobby of FEMA’s headquarters in late January, with many more venues to follow around the country.

- Celebrating the 25th anniversary of the ADA on July 26th, 2015.

- Continuing to streamline their disaster response process in order to immediately respond better, faster, and smarter.

Portlight Strategies’ mission is to provide disaster services to the disability community, and to foster inclusive disaster planning and response for people with all types of disabilities. You can donate at the "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign page. As always, you can visit the Portlight Blog or Portlight website to stay current on their latest efforts.


Video 1. ISS Flyover of Typhoon Hagupit at (4x speed) on December 6, 2014. Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for posting this link in my blog comments.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments




Typhoon Hagupit at 11:38 AM EST on December 06, 2014 made landfall in Dolores, Eastern Samar, at 9:15 pm local time on Saturday
Forecast for Hagupit: storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains are major threats
Hagupit will move west to west-northwest over the weekend at a slow forward speed of 5 -10 mph. The center will be over land much of the time, which will force the storm to weaken; moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 mph will aid this weakening process. Storm surge damage will be very heavy, as Project NOAH is predicting storm surge heights as high as 4.6 meters (15 feet) on the west side of Samar Island at Catbalogan. High winds will also cause widespread destruction, particularly to crops. However, the greatest danger from the storm may come from its rains. Hagupit's slow forward speed will allow torrential rains to fall for a long period of time, and widespread rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches are likely, with some mountainous areas receiving 15 - 25 inches. Since Hagupit is likely to track very close to the capital city of Manila as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon, heavy rains of 10 - 15" could affect this heavily populated part the country resulting in yet another billion-dollar typhoon disaster for the Philippines. Hagupit's closest approach to Manila will likely come around 06 UTC on Monday. In addition, special lahar warnings have been put out for mudslides for two volcanoes along Hagupit's path, Mayan and Bulusan, whose flanks have unstable ash deposits from recent eruptions. A total of 650,000 people have been evacuated for Hagupit, and I am hopeful this effort will keep the death toll relatively low.


maybe some flooding to
We are being stuck into a very mild, innocuous pattern. Highs in the 50's into the week after next week for places in the Midwest.
Link
It's the Witching wind and Water now.

A Typhoon of Major Impact is bearing down on a Population maimed and battered only a year ago.

Our thoughts are with those within the Storms Terrible reach.

You are not alone.


The dawn will come and help will as well.

God is near you.



Thanks, doc (especially for the clarifying radar pic), welcome as always, have a peaceful second Sunday of Advent with your familiy - and may the folks in the path of Hagupit-Ruby be spared the worst.
Wxrisk

strong signs of MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE DEC 16-20... euro weeklies shows much colder pattern by Dec 20 POSSIBLY East coast winter weather threat DEC 22.... CFS weeklies also support this idea
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,
directrelief.org



Direct Relief's Emergency Response Team is monitoring Typhoon Hagupit (locally known as Ruby), as it approaches the Philippines. On its current trajectory, the typhoon is expected to make landfall in the Eastern Visayas in the next 72 hours and could affect 4.5 million people.

Direct Relief already has staff on the ground ready to respond in the event of a disaster and has reached out to local partners and health officials located in high-risk regions 5, 6, 7 and 8.

There are also three strategically pre-positioned typhoon modules ready to be rapidly utilized in the event of an emergency. These modules contain enough medicines and supplies supplies to treat 5,000 people for a month following a disaster.



Philippine authorities are currently in the process of evacuating vulnerable communities. Vice Mayor of Tacloban city, Jerry Yaokasin, stated that we will now strictly enforce forced evacuation. Yaokasin said that we have no more excuses, we have gone through Yolanda, and to lose that many lives, it's beyond our conscience already.

Direct Relief's staff on the ground will be maintaining contact with partners and monitoring the situation as it develops in the next 72 hours.
Follow @DirectRelief on Twitter for the latest information. To donate to Direct Relief's emergency preparedness and response efforts, click here.
View the live map that's tracking the storm: http://j.mp/1BhCuTi
Typhoon Hagupit, whose name means "lash" in Filipino, came ashore on eastern Samar island just before 10 p.m. (9 a.m. ET) with winds of 205 kph (127 mph) -- the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane.

Rainfall amounts are a concern because Hagupit is moving slowly, at 15 kph (9.3 mph). At that rate it will take about three days for the storm to travel to the capital, Manila, dumping a lot of rain as it goes.
Typhoon Hagupit



Some very recent words of meteorological wisdom from Pagasa (below some snippets). Good to read that the storm moves faster than predicted - so less time for Hagupit to dump torrential rains onto those poor people.

"Ruby" slams into Samar
Philippine Daily Inquirer, 1:04 AM | Sunday, December 7th, 2014
[...] The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said it expected Ruby to clear the country by Tuesday.
Pagasa said that if Ruby continued on its present track, its eye would come nearest to Metro Manila at 110 kilometers on Monday afternoon or evening.
"Its effects would be felt as early as Sunday in Metro Manila because of [its] outer rain bands," Pagasa weather specialist Chris Perez said. [...]
According to Perez, the typhoon's intensity was affected by the strong northeast monsoon caused by high pressure over mainland China.
The northeast monsoon is locally known as "amihan".
"The amihan's cold and dry winds are affecting the circulation of the typhoon. A cyclone thrives on warm and moist air," Perez said.
He said the change of speed was dictated by high pressure northeast and northwest of Ruby.
If Ruby changes track, it may slightly move north or south, deviating from its path by 100 km from its projected movement.
Ruby's faster movement cut its earlier projected crossing of central Philippines by one day.
On Friday, with Ruby moving at 13 kph, Pagasa said it would take the typhoon four days to cross the central islands, clearing the country as late as Wednesday. [...]


Read the whole long article by using the link above.
(And the previous post#13 from Whitewabit just spared me the time to search my messy link collection for this specific section display, lol). --- Have a nice evening, everyone.

-------------------------------

BTW, subjects and pics on European weather blogs like Severe Weather Europe today are: current massive ice rain in Serbia, triplets of waterspouts in several Mediterranean locations and - of course - the upcoming giant storm in the North Atlantic.


Photo: Dejan Ilijic via SerbianMeteo

Latest ICON-run (our new weather model) showing a low with surface pressure of 920 hPa for Tuesday between Greenland and Iceland, causing huuuge waves later on for the British Isles and strong winds (some of them may even reach Germany and blow away the current boring fog):

Source.
Quoting 6. washingtonian115:

Wxrisk

strong signs of MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE DEC 16-20... euro weeklies shows much colder pattern by Dec 20 POSSIBLY East coast winter weather threat DEC 22.... CFS weeklies also support this idea

hope so


heavy rain back now from new york city to new haven at 1pm
Next 6 Hours east haven,conn
Rain. Cloudy with temperatures steady near 47F. Winds light and variable. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch.
Quoting 15. opal92nwf:


hope so
My Christmas list..

Happy Family
Happy Wife (me)
Christmas dinner
Cold/snowy (or at least cold)


watch out here in the northeast!



raining at my house!!
The 12z ECMWF continues with the idea of a blockbuster snowstorm across the Northeast from Tuesday-Thursday. Although snow amounts are negligible for coastal locations, inland locations are buried, with as much as 3 feet in western Maine.

Snowstorms can and do happen regardless of whether the pattern is progressive.
Quoting 23. Sfloridacat5:


I'm just so excited for more rain! -_-.Seriously it has rain 4 days so far this week and the ground is becoming soggy.
Quoting 24. washingtonian115:

I'm just so excited for more rain! -_-.Seriously it has rain 4 days so far this week and the ground is becoming soggy.
Very Heavy Rain right now.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm just so excited for more rain! -_-.Seriously it has rain 4 days so far this week and the ground is becoming soggy.


Wunderground is showing a sunny day tomorrow. Enjoy it, because it looks like next week will be pretty rainy.

Sunny and 82 degrees here (beautiful weather, but not Christmas like).
Possible Winter Recon Monday night:

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z DECEMBER 2014
WSPOD NUMBER.....14-006

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE
A62/ DROP 7 (34.0N 72.3W)/ 09/0000Z
GFS is showing pretty similar temps for Wednesday and Thursday morning across Florida and the S.E.

Not record cold, but a lot cooler than the recent weather we've been having.
Same time period as that predicted nor'easter will bring a major storm to the West Coast, with a bullseye somewhere in Northern California from the Golden Gate up to the Oregon border. Some discussion yesterday by the NWS that the storm will include some of the blowoff from Hagupit, caught up in a 200+ mph transPacific jetstream. Current progs have heavy rain and very strong winds.
Quoting 25. Climate175:

Very Heavy Rain right now.
I have picked up 2 inches this week.
Took this Video a few hours ago. Too dangerous to go open the door now, and we are over 200 km south of the centre. This typhoon in not as strong as Haiyan, but it seems to be moving across much more slowly. Chatting with some friends up in Tabango (much closer to centre), and they say it is mayhem outside
heavy rain with lightning at my house in new haven,conn
Recon Monday night: wow!!!

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z DECEMBER 2014
WSPOD NUMBER.....14-006

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE
A62/ DROP 7 (34.0N 72.3W)/ 09/0000Z
Quoting 30. washingtonian115:

I have picked up 2 inches this week.
Looks like more is on the way Tues-Wed.
That's a big swath of rain.
Quite a bit of rain here in eastern Costa Rica today so far -- a bit over 1-1/4 inches -- along with a moderate (5.8-6.2) earthquake South of the border with Panamá, and felt here near the volcano. So Mother is showing her stuff today!
37. vis0
PLEASE STAY TUNED FURTHER UPDATES ON HURRICANE Hagupit, "pray" that the people in the affected areas have taken this seriously and have prepared as best they can. Stay tuned for any help they ask for.

The following is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO Hagupit, its as to ENSO, El Nino, MJO, & tub stains for next week or so.

If you dare to read my theories/explanations, click imgtext thumbnail to open in full view in a new page, but Bookmark this comment and go back to more important subject of Typhon Hagupit, then read this later.

If you hate reading new things, be they "scific" or "scifac" (not fric or frac, but fiction or fact) that are not in a well written book, go to the next member's comment.

Above host by postimg free
(if img is no longer at postimg try tinypic.)
** "Æ"(if character is not showing its U+00C6, Latin capital letter AE "joined") is a clue as to a "dance" via "resonances" that H & He do and is the major part of what i call "clear matter"  modern science has not yet discovered and paah-leeease do not to be confused with dark matter, be it the black  stuff growing around the tub, or the ~22% of "space" , as that aforementioned "dance" is part of "clear matter" and makes up ~45% of space. Remember i delete my blog by spring15, if you like caah-razy stuff  copy what you want to read as only this blogbyte (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/vis0/comment.htm l?entrynum=257) will remain.
 

PLEASE STAY TUNED FURTHER UPDATES ON HURRICANE Hagupit, "pray" that the people in the affected areas have taken this seriously and have prepared as best they can.   Stay tuned for any help they ask for.  Thank you to the WxU community in spreading world weather news therefore helping humanity.

,peace
Took this Video a few hours ago. Too dangerous to go open the door now, and we are over 200 km south of the centre. This typhoon in not as strong as Haiyan, but it seems to be moving across much more slowly. Chatting with some friends up in Tabango (much closer to centre), and they say it is mayhem outside

stay safe and if you can keep us updated
Quoting 39. hurricanes2018:


heavy rain at my house!!
Recent rains in California have been encouraging. Here's a bigger picture of what's going on in the Golden State....

Just how bad is the California drought? Unprecedented in the past 1,200 according to scientists:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-05/californ ia-s-drought-ranks-worst-in-at-least-1-200-years.h tml

The recent rain has been a good thing. We'll need a lot more.

***
The key reservoirs in the state and fed water projects are Oroville and Shasta, respectively. See:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGra phsMain.action

Comparing percent full on each of these reservoirs today versus two months ago (Oct. 5) we find that both are lower today, after a week's rain than they were at the start of the water year (Oct. 1). We're not on the road to recovery just yet.
So deep.

Quoting 36. CaneFreeCR:
Quite a bit of rain here in eastern Costa Rica today so far -- a bit over 1-1/4 inches -- along with a moderate (5.8-6.2) earthquake South of the border with Panamá, and felt here near the volcano. So Mother is showing her stuff today!
I was sitting at my computer here in the mountains of western Panama not too far from the Costa Rica border when the 6.0 quake hit shortly after noon today. It was about 90km (54 miles) south of me - a heavy roller that knocked a wood-frame picture off a bookshelf, made a neighbor's sofa slide a bit with him on it. (Most houses have glazed tile floors here.)

No rain here on the Pacific slopes, and with the 2014 rainy season over, we are way below average.
I have picked up 1/2 inche of rain in east haven,conn its still rainning here
Just a little wet along the East Coast.
Typhoon wallops Eastern Philippines
Over 600,000 people fled to safety as Typhoon Hagupit began lashing the eastern Philippines late Saturday

MANILA, Philippines (AP) -- Typhoon Hagupit slammed into the central Philippines' east coast late Saturday, knocking out power and toppling trees in a region where 650,000 people have fled to safety, still haunted by the massive death and destruction wrought by a monster storm last year.
Packing maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers (109 miles) per hour and gusts of 210 kph (130 mph), Hagupit made landfall in Dolores, a coastal town facing the Pacific in Eastern Samar province, according to the country's weather agency. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
Although it was unlikely to reach the unprecedented strength of Typhoon Haiyan, Hagupit's winds and rain were strong enough to cause major damage to an impoverished region still reeling from the devastating November 2013 storm, which left more than 7,300 people dead or missing.
"There are many trees that have toppled, some of them on the highway," police Senior Inspector Alex Robin said by phone late Saturday from Dolores, hours before Hagupit made landfall. "We are totally in the dark here. The only light comes from flashlights."
From Eastern Samar, Hagupit - Filipino for "smash" or "lash" - was expected to hammer parts of a string of island provinces that was devastated by Haiyan's tsunami-like storm surges and ferocious winds. Hagupit weakened slightly on Saturday, but remained dangerously powerful and erratic.
Robin said about 600 families had hunkered down in Dolores' three-story municipal hall, one of many emergency shelters in the town.

"Everyone here is just looking for a place to sleep," he said. "All the windows are closed, but it is still cool because of the wind and the rain."
Eastern Samar province Rep. Ben Evardone said electricity also was knocked out early Saturday in Borongan city, about 70 kilometers (43 miles) south of Dolores, where the government has set up a command center for rescue and relief operations headed by Interior Secretary Mar Roxas.
Evardone said the strong winds also felled trees and ripped off roofing sheets. "You can hear the whistling of the wind," he said.
"Everybody is in fear because of what happened during (Haiyan)," Evardone said. "We can already feel the wrath of the typhoon. Everybody is praying."
Big waves have pushed seawater over concrete walls along a boulevard, flooding it, Evardone said.
Army troops deployed to supermarkets and major roads in provinces in the typhoon's path to prevent looting and chaos and clear debris, all of which slowed the government's response last year, said Gen. Gregorio Pio Catapang, head of the Philippines' 120,000-strong military.
"We're on red alert, so the entire armed forces is being mobilized for this typhoon," Catapang told a news conference.
Although it's unlikely to reach Haiyan's unprecedented strength, forecasters said Hagupit's maximum sustained winds and gusts were strong enough to set off deadly storm surges and landslides and cause heavy damage to communities and agriculture.
With a whirling band of rain clouds spanning 600 kilometers (373 miles), Hagupit has gained speed and was moving westward at 16 kph (10 mph), according to forecasters.
In the central city of Tacloban, where Haiyan's storm surges killed thousands of people and leveled villages, news of the approaching typhoon rekindled painful memories. Many residents fled to storm shelters, a sports stadium and churches even before authorities urged them to evacuate.
"I'm scared," said Haiyan survivor Jojo Moro. "I'm praying to God not to let another disaster strike us again. We haven't recovered from the first."
The 42-year-old businessman, who lost his wife, daughter and mother last year in Tacloban, said he stocked up on sardines, instant noodles, eggs and water.
More than 600,000 people have been moved to safety, including in Tacloban. A U.N. humanitarian agency spokesman, Denis McClean, said in Geneva that it was one of the largest peacetime evacuations in Philippine history. It also was reminiscent of the evacuation of 1 million people along India's coastline before Cyclone Phailin hit in October 2013.
Nearly 100 domestic flights have been canceled and inter-island ferry services suspended, stranding thousands of people.
"We've not heard of villagers resisting to be evacuated," regional disaster-response director Blanche Gobenciong said. "Their trauma is still so fresh."
In Tacloban, residents stacked sandbags to block floodwaters. One McDonald's restaurant was closed and boarded up to prevent a repetition of Haiyan's deluge, which shattered glass panes and doors of business establishments, allowing looting to take place.
Disaster preparations widened after two agencies tracking the typhoon closely - the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii and the Philippine weather agency - predicted different directions for Hagupit.
The U.S. agency said Hagupit (pronounced HA'-goo-pit) may veer northwest after coming inland and sweep past the southern edge of Manila, the capital city of more than 12 million people. The Philippine agency, known by its acronym PAGASA, projected a more southern path.
Gobenciong said the unpredictable path made it harder to ascertain which areas would be hit, but added that everybody "should prepare for the worst."
"We have a zero-casualty target," she said. "Just one loss of life will really sadden us all and make us wonder what went wrong."
I got spoiled by all the unusually cool temps throughout most of November, and so the 70's to near 80 to start December with high dewpoints the last several days has been pretty lame. Thankfully, cool air is on its way, and this upcoming week is looking much more December-like!

Sunday Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then becoming sunny, with a high near 66. North northeast wind around 10 mph.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 59. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 64.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 59.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 35.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 61.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 64.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I got spoiled by all the unusually cool temps throughout most of November, and so the 70's to near 80 to start December with high dewpoints the last several days has been pretty lame. Thankfully, cool air is on its way, and this upcoming week is looking much more December-like!

Sunday Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then becoming sunny, with a high near 66. North northeast wind around 10 mph.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 59. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 64.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 59.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 35.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 61.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 64.


That's a lot of "sunny" weather.
50. Inyo
I think the colder air is about ready to work in. We got up near freezing but not a raindrop to be seen. Instead four or five inches of wet snow. Maybe more now. I think burlington got some rain. Montpelier and north is snow only.
Hope the next storm does the same. We are able to hide from some of the warm ups way up here n
Quoting 44. hurricanes2018:

I have picked up 1/2 inche of rain in east haven,conn its still rainning here


4.5 inches of snow and no rain here in montpelier vt! More to come next week. Maybe a lot more.
Quoting 49. Sfloridacat5:



That's a lot of "sunny" weather.



Welcome to most cool days in Florida! Which is why I find it funny how anyone ever complains about cool air events down here. When it does get cool and occasionally cold. Most of the time it's with 100% bright, sunny days, which is 100 times more enjoyable than cloudy cold days. I don't really see why anyone complains about high temps in the 50's and 60's with full sun. Even 40's for highs is nice with full sun. And it makes for great fire weather at night.

12Z ECMWF is forecasting significantly above average temperatures for the Northern Plains over to the East Coast next weekend.



Typhoon Hagupit

Typhoon Hagupit
Last Updated Dec 7, 2014 18 GMT
Location 11.9N 125.4E Movement WSW
Wind 115 MPH

great news the winds are coming down fast!
Quoting Jedkins01:


Welcome to most cool days in Florida! Which is why I find it funny how anyone ever complains about cool air events down here. When it does get cool and occasionally cold. Most of the time it's with 100% bright, sunny days, which is 100 times more enjoyable than cloudy cold days. I don't really see why anyone complains about high temps in the 50's and 60's with full sun. Even 40's for highs is nice with full sun. And it makes for great fire weather at night.



Yep, our weather down here in S.W. Florida is going to be perfect.
52. Sfloridacat5

Looks like some flooding is at hand
Typhoon Ruby/Hagupit making landfall

Youtube
Quoting 43. Xulonn:

I was sitting at my computer here in the mountains of western Panama not too far from the Costa Rica border when the 6.0 quake hit shortly after noon today. It was about 90km (54 miles) south of me - a heavy roller that knocked a wood-frame picture off a bookshelf, made a neighbor's sofa slide a bit with him on it. (Most houses have glazed tile floors here.)

No rain here on the Pacific slopes, and with the 2014 rainy season over, we are way below average.
I was quite surprised to find that the epicenter was about 240km from me, as strong as it felt and registered on area seismographs. Usually a fairly strong temblor like that in that area is not noticeable here.
yonzabam~ That was that uploaded 12/4..
Quoting 38. ricderr:

Took this Video a few hours ago. Too dangerous to go open the door now, and we are over 200 km south of the centre. This typhoon in not as strong as Haiyan, but it seems to be moving across much more slowly. Chatting with some friends up in Tabango (much closer to centre), and they say it is mayhem outside

stay safe and if you can keep us updated

We got through it unscathed. It is not finished yet, though the worst is over
Next 6 Hours in east haven!!
Heavy rain. Cloudy with temperatures steady or falling to near 42F. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch.
Quoting 41. rayduray2013:

Recent rains in California have been encouraging. Here's a bigger picture of what's going on in the Golden State....

Just how bad is the California drought? Unprecedented in the past 1,200 according to scientists:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-05/californ ia-s-drought-ranks-worst-in-at-least-1-200-years.h tml

The recent rain has been a good thing. We'll need a lot more.

***
The key reservoirs in the state and fed water projects are Oroville and Shasta, respectively. See:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGra phsMain.action

Comparing percent full on each of these reservoirs today versus two months ago (Oct. 5) we find that both are lower today, after a week's rain than they were at the start of the water year (Oct. 1). We're not on the road to recovery just yet.

Very nice read..008 of rain in Zephyrhills today
Quoting 51. Jedkins01:



Welcome to most cool days in Florida! Which is why I find it funny how anyone ever complains about cool air events down here. When it does get cool and occasionally cold. Most of the time it's with 100% bright, sunny days, which is 100 times more enjoyable than cloudy cold days. I don't really see why anyone complains about high temps in the 50's and 60's with full sun. Even 40's for highs is nice with full sun. And it makes for great fire weather at night.


I totally agree.


5:34 PM EST on December 06, 2014 US Current Surface Map
HAGUPIT for Run: 2014-12-06 18Z
GFDL was more north thru Luzon than most models..

Sun is coming up. Click pic for loop.
Quoting 3. opal92nwf:

We are being stuck into a very mild, innocuous pattern. Highs in the 50's into the week after next week for places in the Midwest.
Link


Not good for Minnesota Ice fishing.
Quoting 51. Jedkins01:



Welcome to most cool days in Florida! Which is why I find it funny how anyone ever complains about cool air events down here. When it does get cool and occasionally cold. Most of the time it's with 100% bright, sunny days, which is 100 times more enjoyable than cloudy cold days. I don't really see why anyone complains about high temps in the 50's and 60's with full sun. Even 40's for highs is nice with full sun. And it makes for great fire weather at night.




The problem I had with this was that these days also tended to be very dry with large dewpoint depressions. That
combined with wind is not ideal for most plants and I also don't like dry air (personal preference for at least 50F dewpoint)

(However I deal with worse dewpoint depressions most days indoors in the winter third of the year)



its still rainning at my house in new haven at 6:50pm EST on December 06, 2014
2 weeks from minimum sun and Buoy Station 46012 24 m southwest of San Francisco is showing an SST of 61 F and a southeast current. Needless to say, it remains muggy in the Bay Area. Big storm on track for Wed-Thurs.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I would be very happy if this scenario panned out. A good two-footer would be really nice.

:) Meanwhile, our local NWS forecaster says : "

Bottom line...there will be a storm. Where...when...what falls from the sky? Stay tuned."


heavy snow for me to
Quoting yonzabam:
Typhoon Ruby/Hagupit making landfall

Youtube
Might be Haiyan or some other storm but it's not Hagupit. There have an amazing number of fake videos, FB postings and Twitter posts about Hagupit floating around in the last 24 hours.


heavy rain from new haven to boston at 8:20pm on on December 06, 2014
78. DDR
Good evening
2.9 inches in 50 minutes in northern Trinidad today,very unusual heavy rainfall for this time of year,but with temperatures 2-3celcius above the average its not surprise.
Quoting 75. hurricanes2018:



heavy snow for me to


It is +25F and raining... Just what I need, freezing rain... Makes the roads "interesting" and of course I have to drive 60 miles in it tonight.
Quoting Dakster:


It is +25F and raining... Just what I need, freezing rain... Makes the roads "interesting" and of course I have to drive 60 miles in it tonight.


What exactly spurred your relocation to Alaska? Were you not a happy Floridian? Lol.
Quoting 60. Caimito:

We got through it unscathed. It is not finished yet, though the worst is over


Good to know you're alright. Hopefully ricderr is too.

EDIT: Oops. I thought ric was also in the Philippines.



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Landfall #2 (Masbate in the Luzon region)

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TYPHOON RUBY
11:00 AM PhST December 7 2014
=============================
Typhoon "Ruby" has made landfall over Cataingan, Masbate

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ruby (HAGUPIT) [967 hPa] located at 12.0N 124.1E or 20 km east of Cataingan, Masbate has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gustiness up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living along the coast are warned on the occurrence of big waves associated with Storm Surge which may reach up to 4.5 meters.

Luzon Region
=============
1. Masbate
2. Ticao Island
3. Sorsogon
4. Albay
5. Burias Island
6. Romblon

Visayas Region
==============
1. Northern Samar
2. Samar

Signal Warning #2
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Camarines Sur
3. Camarines Norte
4 .Southern Quezon
5. Batangas
6. Lubang Island
7. Cavite
8. Laguna
9. Oriental Mindoro
10. Occidental Mindoro

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Aklan
2 .Capiz
3. Northern Cebu
4. Cebu City
5. Bantayan Island
6 .Eastern Samar
7. Biliran
8. Leyte
9. Southern Leyte

Signal Warning #1
These areas will have occasional rains with occasional gusty winds.

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Rest of Quezon
2. Rizal
3. Pampanga
4. Bulacan
5. Nueva Ecija
6. Zambales
7. Bataan
8. Northern Palawan
9. Metro Manila

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Antique
2. Iloilo
3. Rest of Cebu
4. Bohol

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Siargao Island
2. Dinagat Province

Additional Information
======================
Expected third landfall: Sibuyan Island between 8-10 PM tonight and it will be associated with strong winds, storm surge and heavy to torrential rainfall.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10–>30 mm per hour (heavy to torrential) within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

"RUBY" and the Northeast Monsoon will cause rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and over the northern seaboard of Mindanao. Fisher folks and those using small sea craft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

Expected to Exit PAR: Wednesday morning.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.


Strongest Pacific jet in years. 242 mph.

500 mb level winds under that will be in excess of 100 mph in a zonal flow.

JMA forecast track of Hagupit takes it over Romblon and Oriental Mindoro regions of Luzon island groups
Hagupit has been weakening as it crosses over the Philippines. Learn more about the storm on the latest blog post: Link
Hagupit tears down homes in disaster-weary Philippines
The hype surrounding Hagupit has actually been surprisingly low considering what the situation could have been. I'm glad for that; it gives me some hope for this place. Temporally, maybe. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:
The hype surrounding Hagupit has actually been surprisingly low considering what the situation could have been. I'm glad for that; it gives me some hope for this place. Temporally, maybe. :)
Asst sensei, I think that God has protected them through this ordeal. God is the ultimate protector,provider, and healer.

Quoting 90. Andrebrooks:

Asst sensei, I think that God has protected them through this ordeal. God is the ultimate protector,provider, and healer.
Whatever the case was, I'm glad this didn't compare to Haiyan.
Quoting 62. severstorm:

Very nice read..008 of rain in Zephyrhills today


I had a quick heavy shower here tonight as well. Precip forecast was only 20%, we got the 20% as only a few showers popped along the cold front. We got a nice 0.21 surprise from about a 5-8 min shower.

After that 6.57 inch deluge in 4 days we had at the end of November, we are doing pretty good.

When I went to my parents house in the Clearwater area for Thanksgiving break, I was happy to see thick green grass in the yard, and full rain barrels. In fact my parents said they haven't even had to use the rain barrels yet this Fall because rain has been so plentiful. They've had 24 inches of rain since September. The grass is actually greener and the soil moisture is higher there right now than it was when I was there in July. Pretty crazy stuff. The one nice thing I've noticed since Ive lived in Florida is that drought is usually only seasonal, and that even if the rainy season ends up on the dry side like this year was until September, we usually make up for the dry periods at some point during the year. I've never seen a year where haven't had at least some of year quite rainy.
ECMWF 00z is absolutely crazy.

It's been a while since i've seen anything like that.
Quoting 89. KoritheMan:

The hype surrounding Hagupit has actually been surprisingly low considering what the situation could have been. I'm glad for that; it gives me some hope for this place. Temporally, maybe. :)



Hard to get hype when the most powerful storm ever hit them just last year. :/

How's life, Korbs?

Quoting 94. Astrometeor:



Hard to get hype when the most powerful storm ever hit them just last year. :/

How's life, Korbs?
Hi, Nathan. I'm tired. Really tired. So tired I just typed "tied" instead of tired twice in a row before realizing I made a mistake.
Quoting 95. KoritheMan:


Hi, Nathan. I'm tired. Really tired. So tired I just typed "tied" instead of tired twice in a row before realizing I made a mistake.



Oh, lol. Have fun with that. Get some sleep, I'm about to go to bed as well.

Quoting 96. Astrometeor:



Oh, lol. Have fun with that. Get some sleep, I'm about to go to bed as well.
I'm so tired I'm hearing voices in my head when I close my eyes. Literally. I'm not lying. It's probably a bad thing if you're falling asleep in your chair while hearing voices at the same time. And no I'm not schizophrenic (don't patronize me for my mental issues, dammit Nathan!).
Quoting 97. KoritheMan:


I'm so tired I'm hearing voices in my head when I close my eyes. Literally. I'm not lying. It's probably a bad thing if you're falling asleep in your chair while hearing voices at the same time. And no I'm not schizophrenic (don't patronize me for my mental issues, dammit Nathan!).



Hey, don't talk to me like that! Now look at you! You're talking to yourself on this blog! Get some sleep!
Wow

HPC:
PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH SUN WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MON. BY MON NIGHT...THE MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND STRONGLY FAVOR A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT THEN MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUES. THE
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
WED. THE RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL TAKE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND DRIVE IT
NORTHWARD AND DEEPEN IT JUST OFF THE DELMARVA ON TUES AND THEN TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY WED.

THE 00Z GEM CONTINUES AS A FAST AND NORTHERLY OUTLIER WITH ITS
SURFACE LOW OWING TO ITS TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE EAST A BIT
QUICKER AND A BIT NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00Z
NAM/00Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION...WITH THE UKMET THE FARTHEST SOUTH. THE
ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND A BIT SLOWER
WHICH IS TOWARD THE UKMET SOLN. HOWEVER...ALL OF THESE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE ON A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTER BEING POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
WED. THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE FARTHER SOUTH VS THE NAM/GFS AND GEM.
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NAM/UKMET AND ECMWF ALL TAKE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA TUES AFTERNOON AND THEN UP OFF
NJ TUES NIGHT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF THOUGH SUGGEST THE LOW WILL
SLOW DOWN AND ACTUALLY PIVOT BACK WEST OR EVEN SOUTHWEST BY EARLY
WED. THE NAM GRADUALLY JOINS THE GFS AND TAKES THE LOW CLOSER TO
LONG ISLAND. BASED ON BETTER CONTINUITY AND CLUSTERING WITH THE
UKMET...A PREFERENCE TOWARD THE ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED.
Interesting that Hagupit shows an atypical curvature toward the southern Vietnam coast, possibly retaining TS status. I was in Nha Trang, Vietnam during Haiyan (which came through the Philippines further south but curved north). Am currently near Cambodia/Vietnam border in Kampot, Cambodia. It has been a very wet late rainy season from Saigon to throughout the Mekong Delta in Vietnam and Cambodia and everybody is hoping for some drying out. With all the heavy rain recently and the quality of construction around here (lack of proper fill) I know of two foundation failures in the last couple days.
Typhoon Hagupit

Typhoon Hagupit
Last Updated Dec 7, 2014 06 GMT
Location 12.3N 124.1E Movement NW
Wind 95 MPH
Euro has the freeze line into N FL for many days maybe a week straight starting on Tuesday. Looking like a Cold set up for many and those hoping for some warmth have seen the hopes come crashing down as the Euro is King and the GFS is just TRASH right now.


Some days highs won't even reach 60 here in Orlando!
Looks like the greens and the whites may get the lion's share. Then there's always Jay.

Hope the Nordic and snowshoe folk get some. Miss my skate skis and my snowshoes.

Enjoy the only good thing about winter...lots of snow.

Quoting 74. VermontStorms:



I would be very happy if this scenario panned out. A good two-footer would be really nice.

:) Meanwhile, our local NWS forecaster says : "

Bottom line...there will be a storm. Where...when...what falls from the sky? Stay tuned."

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Euro has the freeze line into N FL for many days maybe a week straight starting on Tuesday. Looking like a Cold set up for many and those hoping for some warmth have seen the hopes come crashing down as the Euro is King and the GFS is just TRASH right now.


Some days highs won't even reach 60 here in Orlando!
The coldest day forecast over the next seven for all of Florida is expected to be Wednesday, and even then NWS is calling for a high in Orlando of 60 or so. A slow, week-long warming trend starts after that. NWS also says, "record cold or freezing temps are not expected." IOW, just your typical December cool shot for Florida, with temperatures below average but really no big deal. At least everyone else can rejoice, as the deep Southeast is the only part of the US expected to be normal or below normal for the next 10 days; everyone else should be above normal.


look at the snowman!!
My perception of the blog at times being the holiday season is approaching. It's weather related with the battle between hot/warm vs cool/cold.

From the Miami NWS Disco...

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BEHIND COLD FRONT...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY
EXPANSIVE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE...WHOS CENTER WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER NEW
ENGLAND...AND ALSO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THIS TIME. FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA...THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE TO PERSISTENT NNW
FLOW...WITH MODERATE CAA...LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-
WEEK. DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR WILL ENTRENCH OVER THE REGION...AND WPCS
7-DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION PREDICTION FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IS NEAR
0. DESPITE AMPLE SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S...ALTHOUGH
WEDNESDAY MAXIMA NOW EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN 60S. MINIMA OVER THE
INTERIOR TUE-THU NGTS WILL BE IN 40S...WITH MID-50S EXPECTED EVEN
AT THE COASTS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RUN-TO-RUN COOLING
TREND...SO FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER AS
TIME NEARS.

OF NOTE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The coldest day forecast over the next seven for all of Florida is expected to be Wednesday, and even then NWS is calling for a high in Orlando of 60 or so. A slow, week-long warming trend starts after that. NWS also says, "record cold or freezing temps are not expected." IOW, just your typical December cool shot for Florida, with temperatures below average but really no big deal. At least everyone else can rejoice, as the deep Southeast is the only part of the US expected to be normal or below normal for the next 10 days; everyone else should be above normal.


I believe the shot of cold air we got back in November will end up being colder than what we see next week.
We're expecting lows in the mid to upper 40s with highs in the upper 60s on the coldest days next week here in Fort Myers.
So that's about 7-8 degrees below normal.

The big story will be the significantly above average temperatures across the plains moving into the East Coast late next week into next weekend.
Climate talks in Peru Link
ESPI is way negative meaning no El Nino anytime soon.Will it never be declared officially after all the hype this year? I call this a hybrid El Nino as some factors are behaving like El Nino but others not so.
We had some cold weather back in November. Here in Fort Myers we had 4 nights with temps in the 40s.
November 2nd, 2014 we had a record low of 47 degrees. The next night, Nov. 3rd a low of 48.

Next week (Dec.9th - 12th) we would need lows colder than 32-34 degrees for record lows.

We should be about 10-15 degrees warmer than that here.

Good morning and afternoon, all. Someone here needs to keep a better eye on what the night temps are supposed to be. Yesterday I woke up to a house that was 78 degrees due to the fact the heat was on so I put on the a/c. This morning I wake up to a house that's 59 degrees due to the fact I should have put the heat back on. Sigh.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, apple cinnamon oatmeal, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea and Creole coffee. Enjoy!
This is the coldest morning for my area (S.W. Florida) next week.
Our last decent rain was on November 26th. It would be nice if we could get some rain.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


look at the snowman!!

LOLOLOLOLOL!
Can't see the wide beach at Boracay at all, waves are up..music is still playing.


big storm to watch here
Quoting 110. Tropicsweatherpr:

ESPI is way negative meaning no El Nino anytime soon.Will it never be declared officially after all the hype this year? I call this a hybrid El Nino as some factors are behaving like El Nino but others not so.
i hope you are right!!
Quoting 110. Tropicsweatherpr:

ESPI is way negative meaning no El Nino anytime soon.Will it never be declared officially after all the hype this year? I call this a hybrid El Nino as some factors are behaving like El Nino but others not so.
Yep..Its a strange one..It does resemble a Modoki event in some ways.
GEOS-5 shows snow coming through The Great Lakes tomorrow and Tuesday. Tuesday has the low forming off the Northeast.


122. SLU
Quoting 110. Tropicsweatherpr:

ESPI is way negative meaning no El Nino anytime soon.Will it never be declared officially after all the hype this year? I call this a hybrid El Nino as some factors are behaving like El Nino but others not so.


You got to ask yourself what is really affecting the performance of the computer models. There may be some missing link that no one wants to tackle. It's just incredible that the models have busted on the El Nino forecast for the entire year.
ESPI actually came up 0.02 since lastnight. First time in a few weeks it moved positive at all. That fall may have bottomed at -0.56.

Seems like that updates more often now. It used to update once a day.
Here's the low pushing inland in the NE. Some along the coast might have their fresh snow get rained on & that freeze again as the low matures & draws in the Great Lakes storm..

That low coming at CA just brings days of rain, some really heavy. The low in the NE lingers & snows..

Typhoon Hagupit

Typhoon Hagupit
Last Updated Dec 7, 2014 12 GMT
Location 12.6N 123.7E Movement NW
Wind 85 MPH
Quoting Neapolitan:
The coldest day forecast over the next seven for all of Florida is expected to be Wednesday, and even then NWS is calling for a high in Orlando of 60 or so. A slow, week-long warming trend starts after that. NWS also says, "record cold or freezing temps are not expected." IOW, just your typical December cool shot for Florida, with temperatures below average but really no big deal. At least everyone else can rejoice, as the deep Southeast is the only part of the US expected to be normal or below normal for the next 10 days; everyone else should be above normal.


Agree. Lows near 40 and highs near 60 are quite refreshing. No big deal.
Quoting 122. SLU:



You got to ask yourself what is really affecting the performance of the computer models. There may be some missing link that no one wants to tackle. It's just incredible that the models have busted on the El Nino forecast for the entire year.
Remember also that Ma Nature doesn't necessarily play by the rules set out by NOAA when it comes to natural phenomena. If the ocean temps are a bit shy of the NOAA limits or the other parameters are a bit scant the climate may behave like an El Niño even though NOAA doesn't declare one.
Quoting 93. Drakoen:

ECMWF 00z is absolutely crazy.

It's been a while since i've seen anything like that.

This winter will be crazy..Now I am trying to narrow it down to what areas will get harshest weather.
Quoting 123. Skyepony:

ESPI actually came up 0.02 since lastnight. First time in a few weeks it moved positive at all. That fall may have bottomed at -0.56.

Seems like that updates more often now. It used to update once a day.
Hi Skye..I am thinking now that the weather is warming over the S.E.Pacific , Nino may get a boost. Its a wait and see.

Large systems..Possibly a sign of things to come.



CA could be in for a 100 year storm event things are looking really good for a vary strong wind storm and hvy rains
Quoting 122. SLU:



You got to ask yourself what is really affecting the performance of the computer models. There may be some missing link that no one wants to tackle. It's just incredible that the models have busted on the El Nino forecast for the entire year.
Quoting 110. Tropicsweatherpr:

ESPI is way negative meaning no El Nino anytime soon.Will it never be declared officially after all the hype this year? I call this a hybrid El Nino as some factors are behaving like El Nino but others not so.
Looks like we will enter the longest streak/drought however you want to look at it between El Nino episodes since the ONI was first introduced in 1950. I hate to point fingers at Climate Change and I think it has more to do with the PDO and PNA changing phases and staying there for the past 5 years. Look at the Jet Stream pattern and how it is behaving too. Large ridge in the Northeast Pacific and curved jet along the East Coast. All this is the drivers of the global atmospheric pattern or atmospheric rivers as some meteorologist like to call it.

Link
There have been recent breakthrough,s and new data concerning Stratospheric Warming Events. This is really good stuff...NASA research...Link

Graphs and more data..Link
sometimes i wish i could say that the world news never ceases to amazes me but then i would be lying...

Quoting 134. Tazmanian:

CA could be in for a 100 year storm event things are looking really good for a vary strong wind storm and hvy rains
you can not call something a 100 yr event if it reoccurs more often then that taz
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/extreme-events/california /

sorry for the history lesson on Ca natural disasters
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like we will enter the longest streak/drought however you want to look at it between El Nino episodes since the ONI was first introduced in 1950. I hate to point fingers at Climate Change and I think it has more to do with the PDO and PNA changing phases and staying there for the past 5 years. Look at the Jet Stream pattern and how it is behaving too. Large ridge in the Northeast Pacific and curved jet along the East Coast. All this is the drivers of the global atmospheric pattern or atmospheric rivers as some meteorologist like to call it.

Link


Also quite a long streak without an La Nina event. It's been ENSO-neutral since early 2011 if I'm not mistaken.
Quoting WaterWitch11:

you can not call something a 100 yr event if it reoccurs more often then that taz
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/extreme-events/california /

sorry for the history lesson on Ca natural disasters



you have no idea what your talking about
Quoting 122. SLU:



You got to ask yourself what is really affecting the performance of the computer models. There may be some missing link that no one wants to tackle. It's just incredible that the models have busted on the El Nino forecast for the entire year.


Not really incredible. We're beginning to understand the process through coupled modeling (uncoupled ocean only dynamics describes the kelvin wave but produces an event that evolves several times faster than ever observed.. e.g atmosphere coupling is essential to capture the process). However even with that understood (since the mid 80s when I looked at it in grad school) it remains an ill conditioned problem, very hard to accurately forecast as an initial value problem. Mathematically ill conditioned means small differences (errors) in the initial data lead to large differences in the soluiton.

Looking like at least three have died in Hagupit. Reports are that over all decently build structures and shelters made it through well. Storm has weakened considerably in strength and rain fall rates. I wrote a blog on it.
I just ran across a terrible article that attempted to explain El Nino & sort of stated we had it all figured out since 1997.. But it did have this gem of an interactive map in it that the rest of the article was written based on the info of.
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity



Quoting 117. hurricanes2018:



big storm to watch here
It'll be another useless rain storm.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.