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Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Phailin Rapidly Intensifying, Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013

Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify. The cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall are expanding and cooling, showing that their updrafts are growing stronger and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to continue to intensify until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain an eye diameter less than ten miles across before the inner core grows unstable and the eyewall collapses, with a new, larger-diameter eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The 06Z Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). This forecast is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the surge, given Phailin's recent rapid intensification. Image credit: IMD.

The Bay of Bengal is notorious for deadly tropical cyclones
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD (Figure 2) predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.



98L in the Eastern Atlantic more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear today, but the shear is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Friday - Monday, making Thursday the most likely day for development. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression this week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 371. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure if you guys saw this article earlier...

'Phailin' will not be a super cyclone: IMD

Super cyclone starts at 120 knots (140 mph)

I have no words.



Really? That's just irresponsible of them. I'm glad we have the NHC, you won't see something that ridiculous from the NHC.

18Z GFS cold for FL but it is 300HR out lol
Quoting 460. Patrap:
The Eye has shrunk some more.



Bad mojo when that happens..
Extremely worried about Phailin, looks like it'll more than likely be a Category 4/5 cyclone when it strikes India and will be a catastrophe. I know someone from that area, so I'm rather worried about that too.
98L is turning a lot of atmosphere out in the Central Atlantic. Looking more and more that Lorenzo is on the way.

Quoting 505. CybrTeddy:


Bad mojo when that happens..

IF there is an ERC now... thats a good bit of time to regain strength afterwards
This might be the one bringing all that rain to Texas next week.......
Link

The "Odisha Cyclone" of 1999 currently holds the record for strongest cyclone IN THE INDIAN OCEAN, will Phailin beat that? I think it def has a chance, considering how MASSIVE it is, it should have a strong chance of making it, that, however, is if it can do it before doing the potential EWRC.
The "Odisha Cyclone" had a pressure of 912 mb. As of the last advisory, Phailin has a pressure of ?924.6?mb.
about 12.6 mbs to go, and it will break the record. Guys, we can be looking at a record breaker.
Certainly looks like one.

It was very eery this morning in western NC...low 40s with nothing on radar but a heavy wind driven mist through much of the day. Eastern NC has seen 15" of rain!




I don't think this going out to sea folks.
Amazing.
Quoting 514. wxgeek723:
Amazing.

Duel eyewall?
You would think this is April by looking at the SPC maps for this weekend. Dryline looks like it want to get active starting tomorrow.

Cyclone Phailin intensifies, high alert for Andhra Pradesh, Odisha

Edited by Surabhi Malik (With inputs from PTI) | Updated: October 10, 2013 14:37 IST
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Cyclone Phailin expected to hit coasts of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha with winds raging at 175-185 kms per hour. Heavy rainfall likely in many areas of Odisha during the next 24 hours. (AFP)

Here are the 10 big developments in this story:

Experts describe the storm as "very severe" with a wind speed that will touch 175-185 kms per hour.

A high alert has been declared for all nine coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh. Evacuation plans are being worked out. (Track Live Updates)

The National Disaster Management Authority's head, M. Sasidhar Reddy, has said that Phailin has been categorised as a severe cyclone (only super cylcones are considered more powerful), its impact will be felt on the entire coast.

The Andhra Pradesh government says it has asked the navy, army and air force that their assistance may be required for emergency and relief operations.

"The system would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 12 hours. It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast by the night of October 12," said the Met department.

In the wake of the cyclone alert, thousands of power sector employees from the Seemandhra region of Andhra Pradesh, who were on strike to protest against the Centre's decision to split the state, have decided to return to work, for now. The employees have agreed to start work from 6 am tomorrow but have warned that their strike is not over. (Seemandhra power strike ends - temporarily, warn unions)

The breakthrough came reportedly after the workers held yet another round of talks with Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy today after three failed attempts.

The decision comes as a respite for residents of Seemandhra who have been facing acute power shortage for six days in a row.

The Visakhapatnam Cyclone Warning Centre has forecast heavy rainfall, and warned fishermen against venturing into sea.

A super-cyclone had struck 14 coastal districts of Odisha in October 1999. Nearly 10,000 people were killed as winds raging at 300 kms per hour tore through the coast.
if 98l doesn't go out to sea it will definetly fizzle out. no worries from it all all
Quoting 515. Articuno:

Duel eyewall?

One eyewall. I think what you're seeing is just spiral banding extending out in all four quadrants.
Quoting 501. Patrap:


I bet those winds are sustained at 165 mph right now with gust to 195 mph.
Quoting 514. wxgeek723:
Amazing.
Mother Nature proving her power.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THIS LOW COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
98L has really organized on the 850 vorticity charts.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I don't think this going out to sea folks.
I khow everybody is busy followig the strong storms in the indian ocean, glad you are paying attention to what's going on in the atlantic for a change,which is more of our concern...of course wishing the best for those people out there...
Quoting 519. TropicalAnalystwx13:

One eyewall. I think what you're seeing is just spiral banding extending out in all four quadrants.


More tornadoes this weekend buddy?


goes poof in 72 hours...18z gfs
Quoting 524. HuracanTaino:
I khow everybody is busy followig the strong storms in the indian ocean, glad you are paying attention to what's going on in the atlantic for a change,which is more of our concern...of course wishing the best for those people back there...


Yeah NE Caribbean needs to monitor 98L.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
98L has really organized on the 850 vorticity charts.

It's probably a TD already...
Phailin has leveled off in intensity. Cloud tops near the eye aren't quite as intense as they were earlier. The eye looks warmer than ever though.

Quoting LargoFl:
goes poof in 72 hours...18z gfs
the weather channel was saying that 98l will most likely turn north and in 2 days encounter alot of 30 to 35mph winds and should get torn apart as it turns north in 3 days
Quoting 525. StormTrackerScott:


More tornadoes this weekend buddy?



Maybe one or two. Damaging winds will by far be the threat for the next few hours before storms rapidly wane. Tomorrow, wind profiles are favorable for tornadoes but instability is meager. Maybe one or two.
Quoting 528. HuracanTaino:
It's probably a TD already...


Not a TD yet but it sure is hell fighting off that shear.


Going to be a very wet mon-tues-wens in Texas next week...
Quoting 532. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe one or two. Damaging winds will by far be the threat for the next few hours before storms rapidly wane. Tomorrow, wind profiles are favorable for tornadoes but instability is meager. Maybe one or two.


Thanks man again you really nailed last weekend's Blizzard and Tornado Outbreak. Great Job!
Quoting 535. StormTrackerScott:


Thanks man again you really nailed last weekend's Blizzard and Tornado Outbreak. Great Job!

Did I? What'd I say? Lol.
Quoting 527. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah NE Caribbean needs to monitor 98L.


Could bring surprises... still moving West, coc has kept around 10N

looks like theres a huge cold front comming down all the way down past miami on monday. gonna give florida temps down into the low 50's on tuesday next week
Quoting 536. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Did I? What'd I say? Lol.


That there would be several feet of snow. No way did I ever think that would happen in early October.
Quoting 540. LargoFl:
yep ots
Quoting 540. LargoFl:
I dont see any models bringing it into the carribean at this time.....
Cody yesterday: "I don't really put much trust into any tropical cyclone forecasting agency other than the NHC"

Cody today: "OMG GUYS did you see the new forecast from the JTWC!?!?!"
Quoting 539. fallishere:
looks like theres a huge cold front comming down all the way down past miami on monday. gonna give florida temps down into the low 50's on tuesday next week


Your full of it. Highs in the low 90's all next week here in Orlando so think again and by the way Fall is not here in FL.
Quoting 543. LargoFl:
I dont see any models bringing it into the carribean at this time.....
nope even the weather channel is saying turn due north in 72 and torn apart
2013OCT10 233200 5.0 956.7 2.7 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 MW ON OFF OFF -77.10 -81.41 EMBC N/A 70.3 15.30 -124.58

5.0 from Tokyo ADT

possible 80 knots from JMA at next advisory on NARI
Quoting 523. StormTrackerScott:
98L has really organized on the 850 vorticity charts.


They could actually call this one IMO.
Quoting 545. StormTrackerScott:


Your full of it. Highs in the low 90's all next week here in Orlando so think again and by the way Fall is not here in FL.
it was 68 this morning and next thursday lows at 59. 82 to 86 for highs all next week
Quoting 549. fallishere:
it was 68 this morning and next thursday lows at 59. 82 to 86 for highs all next week


Yeah right. Looks like summer pop up showers over FL.

fallishere may be trollisback.
02B PHAILIN 131011 0000 15.8N 88.8E IO 135 922


Link
Living near the coast, this is the moment to leave everything behind and drive or take a ride North, just like many did in Katrina driving up to Memphis....

Very dangerous thunderstorms moving into Kansas this evening, wind gusts to near 80mph have been reported.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
626 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

COC063-125-KSC023-181-199-110100-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0317.000000T0000Z-131011T0100Z/
KIT CARSON CO-YUMA CO-SHERMAN KS-CHEYENNE KS-WALLACE KS-

626 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WALLACE...SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE...SHERMAN...SOUTHEASTERN YUMA AND EASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT/...

AT 621 PM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HALE TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RULETON TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHARON SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS STORM IS NEAR RULETON WHERE STRONG WINDS HAVE REPORTEDLY BROKEN POWER POLES.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOODLAND...ST. FRANCIS...WHEELER AND EDSON.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 10184 3958 10146 3910 10150 3905 10211
3924 10229 3956 10248
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 224DEG 46KT 3970 10211 3943 10190 3913 10185

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...80MPH

$$

MARTIN
Quoting 544. wxgeek723:
Cody yesterday: "I don't really put much trust into any tropical cyclone forecasting agency other than the NHC"

Cody today: "OMG GUYS did you see the new forecast from the JTWC!?!?!"

Nice to see you're being your typical over-dramatic self, Trent. But, lol, where'd I say anything like that second quote at?
Quoting 551. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah right.
check out news 13 out of orlando 7 day forcast the highest temp for the next 7 days is 86 and low is actually 60 on thursday as the front slips through
ok im perking the Coffee for the blogs night crew folks...good night everyone!
First bands of Typhoon Nari approaching Luzon.

00z Best Track for Pahilin at 135kts.

02B PHAILIN 131011 0000 15.8N 88.8E IO 135 922
rain chances are 0% for friday. saturday, sunday, and 10% tuesday and wednesday then 20% thursday. go see for yourself. and temps falling on wednesday and thursday maybe into the mid to upper 50's each night with the big front comming through
Quoting 555. sunlinepr:
Living near the coast, this is the moment to leave everything behind and drive or take a ride North, just like many did in Katrina driving up to Memphis....



sadly... only the very rich can leave in india... many people dont have the resources to leave
.
Quoting 563. nwobilderburg:


sadly... only the very rich can leave in india... many people dont have the resources to leave


I know, but you can take a ride in an overcrowded train or truck... Even by Elephant, I would be moving....


Quoting 557. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nice to say you're being your typical over-dramatic self, Trent. But, lol, where'd I say that at?

Cody this morning: "Non-NHC forecasting agencies suck. That's all there is to it."
Quoting 566. wxchaser97:

Cody this morning: "Non-NHC forecasting agencies suck. That's all there is to it."


Can I consider Cody a one-man agency? hehehe.

Typhoon Nari:

Quoting 557. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nice to say you're being your typical overdramatic self, Trent. But, lol, where'd I say that at?


Maybe you haven't noticed but my sense of humor derives from either sarcasm or hyperbole. Anyway yesterday when talking about the credibility of IMD and other TC forecasting agencies, and then earlier today you posted JTWC forecast for TD in the WPAC. Just messing man.
2013OCT10 233200 3.9 980.9 +3.3 63.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -82.91 -81.34 UNIFRM N/A N/A 13.36 -142.15

3.5+ Dvorak Tokyo ADT on WIPHA

wow!
6.5 Dvorak number for Pahilin.

TPIO10 PGTW 110012
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 15.7N
D. 88.9E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T6.5/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS
BERMEA
Quoting 568. wxgeek723:


Maybe you haven't noticed but my sense of humor derives from either sarcasm or hyperbole. Anyway yesterday when talking about the credibility of IMD and other TC forecasting agencies, and then earlier today you posted JTWC forecast for TD in the WPAC. Just messing man.

I know you weren't being serious, neither was I. Anyways... :P
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
9:00 AM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nari (970 hPa) located at 15.3N 124.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.9N 120.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Luzon
48 HRS: 15.8N 116.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.8N 112.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
I know the most attention is to Pahilin but Nari will cause a serious blow to the Phillipenes. 00z Best Track is up to 100kts.

24W NARI 131011 0000 15.7N 124.3E WPAC 100 948
Quoting 570. Tropicsweatherpr:
6.5 Dvorak number for Pahilin.

TPIO10 PGTW 110012
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 15.7N
D. 88.9E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T6.5/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS
BERMEA


Does anyone know what the population is along the coast line that will take the brunt of Phailin ??
EP, 94, 2013101100, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1035W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
00z Best Track for Wipha up to 40kts.


25W WIPHA 131011 0000 13.4N 142.4E WPAC 40 993
Quoting 574. whitewabit:


Does anyone know what the population is along the coast line that will take the brunt of Phailin ??


Crowded area ...

According to the 2011 census of India, the total population of Odisha is 41,947,358, of which 21,201,678 (50.54%) are male and 20,745,680 (49.46%) are female, or 978 females per 1000 males. This represents a 13.97% increase over the population in 2001. The population density is 269 per km2.

Cyclone Phailin intensifies, high alert for Andhra Pradesh, Odisha

Edited by Surabhi Malik (With inputs from PTI) | Updated: October 10, 2013 14:37 IST
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Cyclone Phailin expected to hit coasts of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha with winds raging at 175-185 kms per hour. Heavy rainfall likely in many areas of Odisha during the next 24 hours. (AFP)
Quoting 574. whitewabit:


Does anyone know what the population is along the coast line that will take the brunt of Phailin ??

There are 41 million people living in the state of Odisha, although most of them live north of where Phailin is expected to hit. Brahmapur, which may get the eyewall of the storm, has about 355,000 people alone.
AL, 98, 2013101100, , BEST, 0, 112N, 336W, 25, 1008, DB
Let's see if 98L is renumbered or not.
Sunrise over a monster.
Quoting 581. CybrTeddy:
Sunrise over a monster.

That is one wicked storm. I'd be surprised if it's not a cat 5 by later today.
Quoting 580. Tropicsweatherpr:
Let's see if 98L is renumbered or not.

Can't imagine why it would be. SAB gave it "too weak to classify" at 18z and it has changed little in organization since then. It probably won't ever be designated as a tropical cyclone; high shear lies ahead.
Nari

Quoting 582. Ryan1000:

That is one wicked storm. I'd be surprised if it's not a cat 5 by later today.


so, will it be the worst natural disaster since the 2011 Japan Tsunami? i think so
Have the dooms day prophecies already begun?.
Whipa

One can hope for a ewrc...

looks like Phailin has started the EWRC ..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
2:30 AM IST October 11 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Over East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 21:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved westwards slightly intensified further and now lays near 15.5N 89.0E, about 590 km south southeast of Paradip, 600 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 600 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam
and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 110-115 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 100 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center.

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.0-2.5 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
That's pretty nasty looking!

Quoting 583. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Can't imagine why it would be. SAB gave it "too weak to classify" at 18z and it has changed little in organization since then. It probably won't ever be designated as a tropical cyclone; high shear lies ahead.


At least it has been a fighter dealing with the adverse conditions in the Eastern Atlantic but I agree that the hours are ticking towards the strong upper winds to complete it's demise.
594. beell
A 98L re-post from this morning. The CIMSS graphics are hot-linked and have updated through 00Z. Still seems valid.


SW shear over and near 98L at left center of frame


Dry mid level air headed towards 98L on SW winds. Moderately strong easterly jet to the N of 98L does not help either.


98L still trying to lose its E/W elongated circulation


?
595. beell
personally, i like toast.
Quoting 594. beell:
A 98L re-post from this morning. The CIMSS graphics are hot-linked and have updated through 00Z. Still seems valid.


SW shear over and near 98L at left center of frame


Dry mid level air headed towards 98L on SW winds. Moderately strong easterly jet to the N of 98L does not help either.


98L still trying to lose its E/W elongated circulation


?


So 98 is toast, but not burnt toast?

The core has degraded over the past few hours -- maybe the start of an EWRC?

Here comes 98L and it's not going out to sea.

What makes you think it won't?
600. beell
Quoting 596. GatorWX:


So 98 is toast, but not burnt toast?



we call it "scratch" toast around here. scratch off the black stuff and give it back to the complainer.
Quoting 598. StormTrackerScott:
Here comes 98L and it's not going out to sea.

Majority of models are recurving this storm?
Phailin

MTSAT Imagery - 30 Minutes

Night IR to Day Viz Loop


Quoting 601. Bluestorm5:
Majority of models are recurving this storm?
AHHA dont listen to wishcaster scott. He called karen to be a intense hurricane, Cat 2. And it was an absolute horrible system lol, he has been wrong so many times. and 98L wont be anything and he is wishcasting again
Typhoon 02B Cyclone PHAILIN

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 OCT 2013 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 15:49:06 N Lon : 88:42:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 924.5mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : 1.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 87km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.7 degrees


Yeah, that's about the best looking tc of the year..

dang...

nasty and huge.
Quoting 600. beell:


we call it "scratch" toast around here. scratch off the black stuff and give it back to the complainer.


*LMAO* I'm sorry.....we did that at my house years back....still laughing!!

Lindy

massive storm about to inundate India
can't keep my eyes open...night all
That's an impressive/ominous looking system.

Landfall intensity is expected to be between 115-145 knots. Hard to tell exactly.

I've never seen a cyclone so intense keep its spiral banding. Usually they trade it in for a monstrous central dense overcast.


modeles moving west here!!
614. SLU
A most fearful hurricane:

RGB

I see the models still haven't made up their collective mind on 98L. (Not that, that seems to matter in the year 2013).

And Phailin is looking 'good', which is bad for wherever it makes landfall.

Have I missed anything since I went to work and got back home?
invest 98L will be the next hurricane sandy.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

The following group of articles is from a special energy section published by the New York Times on October 9th.

* Oil Shocks Ahead? Probably Not

India Increases Effort to Harness Biomass Energy

Nuclear Plants Vexed at Prices That Shift as Demand Does

Sports Beginning to See the Energy-Efficient Light


Off Scottish Coast, Harnessing Motion of Ocean Waves

In a Hot, Thirsty Energy Business, Water Is Prized

*** Unplugging Bottlenecks in Oil and Gas Deliveries
_________________________________________________

New Jersey Reconsiders Carbon Trading a Year After Sandy

Montana Towns Struggle With Oil Boom Cost as Dollars Flee

One of World's Biggest Clean Energy Finance Shops Is Back in Business

Google Earth Saves Kenya's Maasai Mara Elephants With Drones

Countdown to a Hotter Climate %u2013 Tropics First


Meerkats 'pay rent' to dominant female to stay in group

*** Fears for science amid US shutdown


* Carbyne could be strongest material yet

UK spins off target on carbon cuts

*** Water Discovered in Remnants of Extrasolar Rocky World Orbiting White Dwarf


Iron in Earth's Core Weakens Before Melting


* Complex Relationship Between Phosphorus Levels, Nitrogen Removal in Lakes

How Microbes Survive in Freezing Conditions

!!! As Sea Level Rises, Everglades' Freshwater Plants Perish

Ethanol Not a Major Factor in Reducing Gas Prices

Pulp and Paper Manufacture: Pulp Friction Cleans Up 'Brockovich' Chemical

Massive Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado Tied to Drought

Wind Energy and Radar as Partners


*** 'Stadium Waves' Could Explain Lull in Global Warming

*** The Tundra: A Dark Horse in Planet Earth's Greenhouse Gas Budget

* Discovery Should Save Wheat Farmers Millions of Dollars

* Ontario abandons plan for new nuclear plants

Despite Climate Concern, Global Study Finds Fewer Carbon Capture Projects

O.E.C.D. Head Calls for Global Effort Against Climate Change

*** Scientists threatened by demands to share data

* When wildfire smoke clears, big money changes hands

Jupiter moons perform shadow dance this week -- a triple solar eclipse

*** 'It's heartbreaking': Shutdown could ruin years of Antarctic research

Dancing atoms in glass revealed for first time

* In remote field, North Dakota oil boom suffers first big spill

Water in China: desperate measures

!!! Obituary
Quoting 617. hurricanes2018:
invest 98L will be the next hurricane sandy.


I doubt that - it could be the next Hurricane Lorenzo though.

(Sarcasm: on)
Visible satellite presentation of Phailin is absolutely stunning but scary at the same time.

Invest 98L will likely be a TD tomorrow..
02B/MH/P/C5
Quoting 621. SuperStorm093:
And the idiot award goes to this guy, congrats, please step up and claim your prize.
Did you really just call hurricane2018 an idiot wow and no one is saying anything to defend hurricane2018 but me wow and your the guy who always come to say things when the Atlantic goes quiet shame on you.
Quoting 623. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02B/MH/P/C5


Man that hurricane is huge!!! Atlantic storms are usually so pathetic and anemic in comparison
Quoting 621. SuperStorm093

Quoting 623. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02B/MH/P/C5
Whoa! Before now I never realized how big this thing really is.
Quoting 613. hurricanes2018:

modeles moving west here!!


Future Lorenzo was born a low-rider, and he will not go fish.
Around 3 inches... It just won't stop :/

... The Flood Warning remains in effect until midnight EDT for urban
areas and small streams in York... Lancaster and Adams counties...

At 1022 PM EDT... heavy rain continued to fall over most of the
warning area. While there are small breaks in the rain... the rain is
re-generating over the same spots along the Maryland border and
flowing up across the whole area.

Spotters continue to reports rainfall amounts in excess of 3
inches... with some nearing 4 inches at 10 PM. Additional rainfall
amounts are very uncertain at this point... but some spots will
likely receive at least another inch of rain by midnight. The
warning may need to be extended.

Locations in the warning include but are not limited to... Hallam
township York County... York... Red Lion... Delta... Gettysburg...
Hanover... Lancaster... Manheim... Columbia and Marietta.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. Most flooding deaths occur in automobiles. Turn around dont
drown!

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams... and ponding of water in urban areas...
highways... streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of floods and flash floods.

Please report flooding to the National Weather Service in State
College through twitter or facebook.


Lat... Lon 3995 7747 3999 7740 4003 7719 4015 7703
4016 7691 4020 7693 4022 7690 4022 7684
4018 7676 4012 7672 4019 7660 4025 7630
4031 7615 4014 7587 4011 7594 4004 7594
3992 7600 3987 7599 3973 7610 3972 7746


Forecaster: dangelo
Quoting 624. Climate175:
Did you really just call hurricane2018 an idiot wow and no one is saying anything to defend hurricane2018 but me wow and your the guy who always come to say things when the Atlantic goes quiet shame on you.


Thank you
Quoting 624. Climate175:
Did you really just call hurricane2018 an idiot wow and no one is saying anything to defend hurricane2018 but me wow and your the guy who always come to say things when the Atlantic goes quiet shame on you.
comm removed his comment and me well I can do something else
Quoting 612. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've never seen a cyclone so intense keep its spiral banding. Usually they trade it in for a monstrous central dense overcast.

Speechless so beautiful.
Quoting 631. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
comm removed his comment and me well I can do something else
Ok Thank you
Quoting 630. StormTrackerScott:


No bans for this guy on here! I swear the mods only ban post that are against the Obama adminstration. Watch I will get a ban but this guy won't. What a joke on here at times with the mods.
comment got flagged by the comm check back before making a comment

and I just got here from a little nap give me a break will ya
Cant wait to get this ban folks.
Quoting 634. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
comment got flagged by the comm check back before making a comment

and I just got here from a little nap give me a break will ya


LOL! Sorry man. Love ya Keep!
Quoting 635. SuperStorm093:
Atlantic goes? LOL the atlantic is DEAD SEASON IS OVER, oh wait let me guess, you guys will NOW say november will be active lol


Mods,

Serious question here. How does this guy never get banned for monomania? It's obvious his only objective is to troll. I think the perma-ban feature would suit him well.

Sincerely,

The Entire Blog
98L getting more compact

Quoting 638. StormTrackerScott:


LOL! Sorry man. Love ya Keep!
ME to KEEP! Lov ya kid, but can you please ban me for my wrongful actions
Quoting 635. SuperStorm093:
Atlantic goes? LOL the atlantic is DEAD SEASON IS OVER, oh wait let me guess, you guys will NOW say november will be active lol
Lol are you talking to yourself?
Quoting 624. Climate175:
Did you really just call hurricane2018 an idiot wow and no one is saying anything to defend hurricane2018 but me wow and your the guy who always come to say things when the Atlantic goes quiet shame on you.


We report and move on per the blog community standards.
Quoting 640. MississippiWx:


Mods,

Serious question here. How does this guy never get banned for monomania? It's obvious his only objective is to troll. I think the perma-ban feature would suit him well.

Sincerely,

The Entire Blog


I know but I get banned for every anti Obama rant. Go figure.
Quoting 626. StormTrackerScott:




Who is the troll calling an idiot? I thought KOTG shut his uselessness down a few days ago.
*sigh*

Quoting 640. MississippiWx:


Mods,

Serious question here. How does this guy never get banned for monomania? It's obvious his only objective is to troll. I think the perma-ban feature would suit him well.

Sincerely,

The Entire Blog
You just stole my brain.
if you guys would stop feeding IT IT would go home. just saying
Quoting 649. will40:
if you guys would stop feeding IT IT would go home. just saying


He never goes home though.
Quoting 640. MississippiWx:


Mods,

Serious question here. How does this guy never get banned for monomania? It's obvious his only objective is to troll. I think the perma-ban feature would suit him well.

Sincerely,

The Entire Blog


+1 there, bud...
Quoting 649. will40:
if you guys would stop feeding IT IT would go home. just saying
except this one never go away.
Quoting 645. StormTrackerScott:


I know but I get banned for every anti Obama rant. Go figure.


Lol. Well, I've been banned recently, but it has been rightfully done. Really off-topic things, such as this subject, are fair game for mods. As long as we get back on track, they are usually okay with it. However, the incessant posts by SS093 about how everyone is dumb and he's always right never seem to go away.
It does on mine the ignore feature works untill someone quotes IT
Let the guy speak, he means no harm.
Quoting 623. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02B/MH/P/C5
You got mail.
Quoting 652. Bluestorm5:


+1 there, bud...
+50 from me.
Quoting 640. MississippiWx:


Mods,

Serious question here. How does this guy never get banned for monomania? It's obvious his only objective is to troll. I think the perma-ban feature would suit him well.

Sincerely,

The Entire Blog

I've asked before. No response.
Quoting 649. will40:
if you guys would stop feeding IT IT would go home. just saying


It's not that simple...
I reported every single of his posts tonight just to see how it go... ball in your court, mods.
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!



*see 336 HR mark*

Yeah, I'm ignoring this...
I am wondering what satellite(s) provide coverage of the Indian Ocean. Can someone provide a link?
Quoting 663. Bluestorm5:


*see 336 HR mark*

Yeah, I'm ignoring this...


Lol. I love the FIM models. Seems like one always wants a huge hurricane in the Gulf. It's interesting to look at anyway.
.
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!

What the... thats odd
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!


ooh nice
Quoting 662. Bluestorm5:
I reported every single of his posts tonight just to see how it go... ball in your court, mods.

Kyle, no, it's too late for basketball.
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!



Where did that storm come from? Can you put up the panels 24, 48, 72 hours earlier please?
Quoting 669. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kyle, no, it's too late for basketball.


It's never too late for basketball.
Quoting 670. BaltimoreBrian:


Where did that storm come from? Can you put up the panels 24, 48, 72 hours earlier please?


Looks like 98L
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!

I would say yikes too. But after this season, I will believe it when I see it. lol
Quoting 663. Bluestorm5:


*see 336 HR mark*

Yeah, I'm ignoring this...


Hey it provides some humor atleast.
Thankfully that is in fantasyland time frame.
Quoting 669. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kyle, no, it's too late for basketball.
You fail to realize NBA is starting next week as well as college or high school basketball starting next month... you're just showing off your poor knowledge in sports :P
Quoting 669. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kyle, no, it's too late for basketball.
You got to get into the game man!
Actually it's not 98L.

Quoting 676. Bluestorm5:
You fail to realize NBA is starting next week as well as college or high school basketball starting next month... you're just showing off your poor knowledge in sports :P

Kyle, no, I meant in terms of time. 03z is too late for basketball.

Quoting 671. MississippiWx:


It's never too late for basketball.

Okay Coach Smith.
Hey folks! See you complaininng about the troll. You know you can flag his comments and put him on ignore. But not qouteing him or resonding to his comments is the way to too. Ain't done this blogging thing very long but even I know what to do with a troll

The moderators will get him sooner or later. They always do I've seen.
Quoting 680. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kyle, no, I meant in terms of time. 03z is too late for basketball.


Okay Coach Smith.
It's 11 pm... and there are kids still out there playing basketball in 40 degrees night next to my dorm. DEAL WITH IT :P
Quoting 681. JustFlyingThru:
Hey folks! See you complaininng about the troll. You know you can flag his comments and put him on ignore. But not qouteing him or resonding to his comments is the way to too. Ain't done this blogging thing very long but even I know what to do with a troll

The moderators will get him sooner or later. They always do I've seen.


I flagged him...
See couple members thinking 98L will remain a low rider. COC's always been on the southern side of the convection, models keep showing it go OTS, but I don't think they've ever had a great handle on it. Could make the Caribbean but the 30-40kt shear coming over the next two to three days will be hard to overcome. StormTrackerScott how do you see this disturbance handling 72 hrs of very heavy shear coming up? MississippiWX loved your post on the previous page that got plussed by everyone who is here right now. Now that's something we can all agree on.
Quoting 679. StormTrackerScott:
Actually it's not 98L.



Looks like a classic west Caribbean origin. Interesting. Doubt it will play out but thanks for posting something fun to look at.
Quoting 681. JustFlyingThru:
Hey folks! See you complaininng about the troll. You know you can flag his comments and put him on ignore. But not qouteing him or resonding to his comments is the way to too. Ain't done this blogging thing very long but even I know what to do with a troll

The moderators will get him sooner or later. They always do I've seen.


Correct-o-mundo

-take care
Not only did we miss hurricanes this year in Florida, but now we have unusually great weather for October.
What they call "Chamber of Commerce" weather.
02B/MH/P/C5


venting very nice
well dev storm
dry slotted less dense regions noted in nw semi circle of storm
Quoting 687. unknowncomic:
Not only did we miss hurricanes this year in Florida, but now we have unusually great weather for October.
What they call "Chamber of Commerce" weather.


Don't cackle to soon ... hope you are correct but Wilma was rather after your cackle. ;>)
My God, Phailin has to be pushing cat5. What a beautiful storm. No ERC either? Will it happen before landfall? Love watching it but I'd really love to see it dissipate. No question this will be the natural disaster of the year.
Quoting 688. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02B/MH/P/C5


venting very nice
well dev storm
dry slotted less dense regions noted in nw semi circle of storm


Whadda damn image (that is a big storm) - take care KOG
Quoting 690. Tribucanes:
My God, Phailin has to be pushing cat5. What a beautiful storm. No ERC either? Will it happen before landfall? Love watching it but I'd really love to see it dissipate. No question this will be the natural disaster of the year.


I think Phailin is starting an EWRC. Not sure if it will have time to complete it before landfall. They always seem to take longer than I think.

Off to bed.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON SANTI
11:00 AM PhST October 11 2013
================================================= ==

"SANTI" has intensified further as it continues to move towards Aurora-Isabela area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Santi [NARI] (972 hPa) located at 15.3N 124.0E or 240 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gustiness up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #3

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Aurora
2. Isabela
3. Quirino
4. Ifugao
5. Nueva Viscaya
6. Benguet
7. Nueva Ecija

Signal Warning #2

Luzon Region
-------------
1. La Union
2. Pangasinan
3. Ilocos Norte
4. Ilocos Sur
5. Cagayan
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Abra
9. Mt. Province
10. Tarlac
11. Zambales
12. Bulacan
13. Pampanga
14. Northern Quezon
15. Polilio Island

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Metro Manila
2. Calayan and Babuyan Group of Is.
3. Bataan
4. Rizal
5. Cavite
6. Batangas
7. Laguna
8. Lubang Islands
9. Rest of Quezon
10. Marinduque
11. Camarines Provinces
12. Albay
13. Catanduanes

Additional Information
==========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5-30.0 mm per hour (Heavy to Intense) within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3, #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboard of Luzon and of eastern Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Pray for the people in India. This will strike a very densely populated area south of Kolkata, as either a Category 4 or 5. Phailin has the potential to kill thousands of people. Don't forget what happened with Bhola
Quoting 688. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02B/MH/P/C5


venting very nice
well dev storm
dry slotted less dense regions noted in nw semi circle of storm


Do the people who live along the India coast line know the power of the storm that will soon wash over them? Its so large it will effect them for many hours. Was there an evacuation ordered?
Nari

Quoting 695. JustFlyingThru:


Do the people who live along the India coast line know the power of the storm that will soon wash over them? Its so large it will effect them for many hours. Was there an evacuation ordered?


they are being advised by there local reps and national services

measures are being taken I guess

just trying to maintain order may be even a challenge
From JTWC's 03z advisory:

"ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z SSMI/S PASS, SHOWS THE SYSTEM
IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COMMONLY OBSERVED IN
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH MINIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KNOTS."

I'd expect slight weakening tonight and tomorrow followed by re-intensification tomorrow night up to landfall. This EWRC means it's going to grow larger in size than it already is; not good at all.
'Catastrophic' cyclone heads for landfall in India
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 2:53 p.m. EDT October 10, 2013
The storm could "erase most houses, crops and infrastructure."
AP India Cyclone Alert


A monstrous and potentially catastrophic cyclone is taking aim on India, with winds estimated at nearly 170 mph. This is equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane.

The storm's name is Phailin.

The "effects to the Indian coast ... in terms of surge will be catastrophic, with the potential to erase most houses, crops and infrastructure," reported WeatherBell meteorologist Ryan Maue on his Twitter account.

The weather models meteorologists use to forecast storms are in tight agreement that Phailin will track northwest into the northeast coast of India, with landfall expected to occur early Saturday, according to meteorologist Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground.

The storm should hit in India's Orissa state, reported the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The state has a population of close to 40 million people, the Odisha government website noted, and has about 700 people per square mile.

Cyclones form in the Indian Ocean, and are the same type of storm as a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean and a typhoon in the western Pacific. They are all known by the umbrella term "tropical cyclones."

Cyclones that form in the Bay of Bengal — which is the northeastern part of the Indian Ocean — can be among the deadliest natural catastrophes in the world. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms, according to Masters.

In fact, during the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's deaths from tropical cyclones have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India, Masters reports.

A single cyclone that hit Bangeldesh in 1970 killed between 300,000 and 500,000 people.

"Phailin" means "sapphire" in the Thai language.
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!


That map would make sense in July/August. Not the end of October.
Cyclone Phailin is half the size of India and strengthening quickly as it heads for land

Link



Severe cyclonic storm Phailin is forecast to strike India at about 12:00 GMT on 12 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 19.0 N, 85.3 E. Phailin is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 175 km/h (109 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Phailin's strength (category 2) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
Quoting 698. TropicalAnalystwx13:
From JTWC's 03z advisory:

"ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z SSMI/S PASS, SHOWS THE SYSTEM
IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COMMONLY OBSERVED IN
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH MINIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KNOTS."

I'd expect slight weakening tonight and tomorrow followed by re-intensification tomorrow night up to landfall. This EWRC means it's going to grow larger in size than it already is; not good at all.



Larger, my this has a good chance to have a 20-25ft storm surge. What would you ballpark the wind speed at TA13? Looks every bit a cat5 or very close with winds 130-150kts easily.
Quoting 679. StormTrackerScott:
Actually it's not 98L.


Its the Columbian heat low, which rarely spins up. It also assumes zero fronts across NAM over a 10-day span at the end of October.
I'm finding it hard to believe.
"Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 12 hrs."

That 's some sage advice right there.
Quoting 702. Tribucanes:



Larger, my this has a good chance to have a 20-25ft storm surge. What would you ballpark the wind speed at TA13? Looks every bit a cat5 or very close with winds 130-150kts easily.

Right now? I think an intensity of 135 knots (155 mph) is good. It was more impressive earlier...probably had winds over 165 mph then.
Quoting 696. sunlinepr:
Nari



Don't understand those graphics. What do they represent? Not trying to be funny, just new to this type of weather picture's.
Global disaster Alert and Coordination System

Link
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

This was taken on Interstate 83 in Southern Pennsylvania earlier today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM WIPHA (T1326)
12:00 PM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Wipha (996 hPa) located at 13.7N 142.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.6N 139.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 17.1N 137.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
69 HRS: 19.5N 135.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
12:00 PM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nari (970 hPa) located at 15.3N 124.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.0N 119.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 15.8N 116.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.8N 112.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Quoting 706. JustFlyingThru:


Don't understand those graphics. What do they represent? Not trying to be funny, just new to this type of weather picture's.



Nari is the one between Phailin and Wipha

Good evening or morning wherever you are located everyone. I just want to say thank you to guys for expressing your concerns and interest for the nation of India. Phailin is a dangerous storm and is on the level of some of the bad storms we have had in the Atlantic Ocean like Andrew and Katrina. I hope that everyone along the coast has evacuated to higher ground who are at least in the path of this storm and I hope for the best.
Post 640, best comment I've ever seen. Way to show them. +100
I would copy paste 98L to put it at 16N 58W...

It looks really wet new, just what I need.
Model plots for Phailin shows the GFS, NAVGEM, and GFDL.



At 1800 UTC, 10 October 2013, PHAILIN (IO02) was located in the Bay of Bengal basin at 15.6°N and 89.4°E. The current intensity was 125 kt and the center was moving at 7 kt at a bearing of 305 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 929 mb.

One monster -



Two monster, three monster -

16.0 88.5/Dvorak T6.0

115 knots from IMD for the 830AM cyclone imagery page.

still waiting for the 530 AM bulletin/advisory.. (the slowpokes) LOL
Quoting 710. sunlinepr:



Nari is the one between Phailin and Wipha

Quoting 710. sunlinepr:



Nari is the one between Phailin and Wipha


I know where it is. What do the graphics represent? They just look like big blobs to me. Do they represent tempertures,moisture? Thats what I would like to know. I understand how to read the visible pictures but not the others!
LIVE: Cyclone Phailin turns very severe, Odisha on the edge

Zee Media Bureau/Ajith Vijay Kumar

9.30 am: The IMD has predicted a storm surge with height of around 2.0-2.5 meteres. Low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh may get inundated.

Link


Quoting 708. Doppler22:
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

This was taken on Interstate 83 in Southern Pennsylvania earlier today.


This was supposed to be an I-95 event -____-
Quoting 716. HadesGodWyvern:
16.0 88.5/Dvorak T6.0

115 knots from IMD for the 830AM cyclone imagery page.

still waiting for the 530 AM bulletin/advisory.. (the slowpokes) LOL



lol
Quoting 715. TropicalAnalystwx13:
One monster -



Two monster, three monster -



Four monst- oh wait
Quoting 717. JustFlyingThru:


Weather satellite photos through different filters...

Water Vapor

The Black one is the same picture with the shortwave (IR2) filter
Quoting 722. sunlinepr:


Weather satellite photos through different filters...

Water Vapor

The Black one is the same picture with the shortwave (IR2) filter


what is the reason to use them ?? do they show something different to the trained eye then water vapor or the visible images??

I tend to use the water vapor images a lot
the first rain ban from Phailin has reached the coast now ..
Quoting 726. Civicane49:

so is there an ERC going on
Quoting 723. whitewabit:


what is the reason to use them ?? do they show something different to the trained then water vapor or the visible images?


Filters allow you to see different details...

Link

An example is that a Visible filter will show you no image at night while IR filters do...

WV filters usually show ULLs well...

Look for Image Enhancement Information on the Internet for further investigation....
Well time for these old bones to be in bed. We'll see how Phailin is in the AM.

Remember to smile, makes people wonder what you are up to!
Quoting 727. nwobilderburg:

so is there an ERC going on


It appears.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
5:30 AM IST October 11 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Over East Central Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards at 8 knots and now lays center near 16.0N 88.5E, about about 520 km south southeast of Paradip, 530 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 530km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and
Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 110-115 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.5. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman Sea islands and area between lat 14.0N to 17.0N and long 86.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km. Eye temp -6C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 100 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. Phailin central pressure is 955 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.0N 86.9E - 110-115 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.9N 85.8E - 110-115 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 20.2N 84.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 22.2N 83.8E - 25 knots (Depression)

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.5-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 20N and is providing poleward out flow. Phailin is tracking along the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge lying in the northeast sector. The upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours.. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased and is about 5-10 knots (low). The madden jullian oscillation (mjo) index is in phase 6 with amplitude greater than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that madden jullian oscillation would move to phase 7 during next 3 days


convective energy deteriorating on the ne quad now as per jsl

weakening flag flag
Quoting 732. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


convective energy deteriorating on the ne quad now as per jsl

weakening flag flag



Good for them.... lets spare some Atl conditions to that area so that it dissipates....
2013OCT11 050000 7.3 913.2 149.0 6.3 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT
tis happening
Quoting 732. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


convective energy deteriorating on the ne quad now as per jsl

weakening flag flag
EWRC ongoing. Not necessarily a good thing if the storm just increases in size afterward.

But don't listen to me. I'm never particularly positive, heh.
02B/MH/P/C4
Quoting 732. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


convective energy deteriorating on the ne quad now as per jsl

weakening flag flag


2013OCT11 043000 6.8 904.4 +0.0 134.8 6.1 5.7 4.6 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -74.66 -70.80 UNIFRM N/A 43.5 16.17 -87.67

the raw Dvorak number is showing this disruption.
Hi guys . Its very interesting to read your comments . You guys know so much . Now I'm from state the cyclone phailin is gonna hit . They say its gonna make landafall by sat night at 175 kmph . Can you guys give an actual update . How severe its gonna be , is it gonna hit early? Maybe explain in layman language , I can't follow the technical language ,8E,98L .. what are those ? Latitude longitude positioning ?
Thanks ,I'll be grateful :-)
P.s - so most of you are storm chasers / followers ? That's sorta cool! Sugoi! xD

Quoting 738. g564841:
Hi guys . Its very interesting to read your comments . You guys know so much . Now I'm from state the cyclone phailin is gonna hit . They say its gonna make landafall by sat night at 175 kmph . Can you guys give an actual update . How severe its gonna be , is it gonna hit early? Maybe explain in layman language , I can't follow the technical language ,8E,98L .. what are those ? Latitude longitude positioning ?
Thanks ,I'll be grateful :-)
P.s - so most of you are storm chasers / followers ? That's sorta cool! Sugoi! xD
I might provide a detailed forecast on Phailin within the next few hours, and if I do, I'll post it here.

I really haven't watched this storm as carefully as I could have, though. I don't want to give an answer that isn't particularly well-researched.

Hope you stay safe out there, though. For sure.
Quoting 735. KoritheMan:
EWRC ongoing. Not necessarily a good thing if the storm just increases in size afterward.

But don't listen to me. I'm never particularly positive, heh.
maybe it won't get there by the time the cycle up is done it will be closer to land to help disrupt it maybe
Quoting 738. g564841:
Hi guys . Its very interesting to read your comments . You guys know so much . Now I'm from state the cyclone phailin is gonna hit . They say its gonna make landafall by sat night at 175 kmph . Can you guys give an actual update . How severe its gonna be , is it gonna hit early? Maybe explain in layman language , I can't follow the technical language ,8E,98L .. what are those ? Latitude longitude positioning ?
Thanks ,I'll be grateful :-)
P.s - so most of you are storm chasers / followers ? That's sorta cool! Sugoi! xD


that has changed a long time ago from IMD.. it's now forecast for 205-215 km/h landfall.

Quoting 740. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe it won't get there by the time the cycle up is done it will be closer to land to help disrupt it maybe
Who knows. Predicting the timing and duration of these cycles is pretty difficult.

The small radius of maximum winds argues for a relatively brief one, though.

We'll see.
Quoting 742. KoritheMan:

Who knows. Predicting the timing and duration of these cycles is pretty difficult.

The small radius of maximum winds argues for a relatively brief one, though.

We'll see.
it also got the day effect to deal with maybe after sunset once it gets dark it will take off again we watch
Out for now. Interested to see what Phailin does after the culmination of this cycle.

Stay safe, all in the path.
later, Kori

Quoting 743. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it also got the day effect to deal with maybe after sunset once it gets dark it will take off again we watch
I never really thought diurnal cycles affected cyclones this intense. I mean, I know it does, because physical processes demand it, but the net result seems to be minimal.
94E:

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
Oh thnx for the update . 205/15 is pretty high right . The previous super cyclone here, wind speed was 300kmph.
Thanks, i'll stay indoors , have bought essentials . Its just a lot of wind here right now . Bright sunny and windy . Most people aren't serious about it . Deceptive weather huh! I'll be following this blog , its amazing . I did like geography very much in Middle school .
98L:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS BECOME EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
Quoting 746. KoritheMan:

I never really thought diurnal cycles affected cyclones this intense. I mean, I know it does, because physical processes demand it, but the net result seems to be minimal.
really don't know myself just a guess on my part not to familiar with systems in the BOB just going on past sat. recognition
Quoting 748. g564841:
Oh thnx for the update . 205/15 is pretty high right . The previous super cyclone here, wind speed was 300kmph.
Thanks, i'll stay indoors , have bought essentials . Its just a lot of wind here right now . Bright sunny and windy . Most people aren't serious about it . Deceptive weather huh! I'll be following this blog , its amazing . I did like geography very much in Middle school .


ya, about a high category 3 hurricane strength.
so the eyewall is disappearing, but the storm now occupies nearly all of the Bay of Bengal
713: unfortunately it won't do that
Oops meant post 733 say
Looks like the Tropical Atlantic is DONE! High Shear has taken over near the entire Basin!
7.4 910.2 152.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT ON FLG -21.76 -72.20 EYE 11 IR 40.0 15.95 -88.48 COMBO MET7 40.5
2013OCT11 050000 7.3 913.2 149.0 6.3 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT ON FLG -27.46 -71.52 EYE 10 IR 40.0 15.98 -88.42 SPRL MET7 40.5
2013OCT11 053000 7.1 919.2 143.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT ON FLG -31.76 -73.53 EYE -99 IR 40.0 16.01 -88.36 SPRL MET7 40.4
2013OCT11 060000 7.1 919.1 143.0 6.1 6.1 6.1

so the pressure went up by 10mb over the last 2 hours but now seems to have evened out. Nobody seems to be on here tho
Quoting 757. TampaSpin:
Looks like the Tropical Atlantic is DONE! High Shear has taken over near the entire Basin!


Do you think the energy tropical systems didn't use this year in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will make stronger winter storms this year?
AL, 98, 2013101106, , BEST, 0, 113N, 347W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting 759. BaltimoreBrian:


Do you think the energy tropical systems didn't use this year in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will make stronger winter storms this year?



That's a good question.....not really sure it has much bearing except up the EAST Coast.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
15:00 PM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nari (965 hPa) located at 15.3N 123.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.7N 118.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.3N 114.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.9N 111.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Quoting 759. BaltimoreBrian:


Do you think the energy tropical systems didn't use this year in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will make stronger winter storms this year?


I am not a believer that only the Atlantic would affect much. Look how active the Pacific and other areas have been. It seems the Artic is running much colder already than usual. Might see a large Snow event and a stronger Nor-Easter because of Warmer than usual Temps up the East Coast.
Quoting 761. TampaSpin:



That's a good question.....not really sure it has much bearing except up the EAST Coast.


Nothing really tapped the loop current this year so it could provide more energy for winter storms to hit Florida and the Deep South. I'm thinking tornado events and gales, not snow and ice kind of storms.
The hurricane season isn't done by a long shot. Models show development still. Come back on Dec 1 then it'll be over then.
Bck for a quick update .. wind has picked up speed . Armed forces are moving vehcile and troops for relief ops. Oh and they upgraded it to a super cyclone .
I miss the snows of 2009-2010. 80" in Baltimore. Fun times!
EP, 94, 2013101106, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1042W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Guess no one saw the fim model aleast. Hurricane season will be done when it says so.
Quoting 764. BaltimoreBrian:


Nothing really tapped the loop current this year so it could provide more energy for winter storms to hit Florida and the Deep South. I'm thinking tornado events and gales, not snow and ice kind of storms.



Powerful Cold fronts can do that anyways, but ya I guess a little warmer water in the Gulf could provide more instability and cause those nasty Winter Tornado's across Florida. Most don't realize that in Florida the worst weather for Tornado's is during the Winter.
Quoting 769. RGVtropicalWx13:
Guess no one saw the fim model aleast. Hurricane season will be done when it says so.


Right NOW SHEAR says its done!
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:
Yikes!





Yeah, right. In mid-late October. With the northern GoM waters cooled off. Nice sense of humor there, FIM-7.

Even if it gets that far N, westerly shear rips it apart like Karen was.

And....latest 11/00z run backed completely off that fantasy.

Slightly blurry image. Probably because the BoB is at the edge of MTSAT-2's coverage area.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM WIPHA (T1326)
15:00 PM JST October 11 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Wipha (994 hPa) located at 14.1N 141.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.8N 139.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.5N 137.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 20.4N 134.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Quoting 766. g564841:
Bck for a quick update .. wind has picked up speed . Armed forces are moving vehcile and troops for relief ops. Oh and they upgraded it to a super cyclone .


Good luck out there. If you cannot get out of the path of this thing, beware and prepare.
I wonder if I've posted as many article links as HadesGodWyvern has posted advisories ;)
Phailin is about to go ballistic.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
8:30 AM IST October 11 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over East Central Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal remained stationery and lays near 16.0N 88.5E, about 520 km south southeast of Paradip, 530 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 530 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 115-120 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T6.0. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman Sea islands and area between lat 14.0N to 17.0N and long 87.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -81C. The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km. Eye temp -6C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is about 105-110 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal. Phailin central pressure is 940 hPa.

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.5-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall
Quoting 778. HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
8:30 AM IST October 11 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over East Central Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal remained stationery and lays near 16.0N 88.5E, about 520 km south southeast of Paradip, 530 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 530 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 115-120 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T6.0. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman Sea islands and area between lat 14.0N to 17.0N and long 87.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -81C. The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km. Eye temp -6C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is about 105-110 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal. Phailin central pressure is 940 hPa.

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of around 2.5-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall


jesus... how many times can one thing be posted
Quoting nwobilderburg:


jesus... how many times can one thing be posted


Read carefully... They are all different.

Typhoon Nari coming into view from Tagaytay Radar.



I expect these will gradually increase.


Rainfall intensity as of 10/11/13 03:40 PM
Camarines Sur, Iriga : 2.032 mm/hour
Camiguin, Da Animal Breeding Station : 4.572 mm/hour
Davao del Sur, Bansalan Provincial Nursery : 19.558 mm/hour
Laguna, Kalayaan : 2.032 mm/hour
Lanao del Sur, Brgy Matalin : 3.81 mm/hour
Lanao del Sur, Polo Ditsaan : 8.128 mm/hour
Negros Occidental, Magballo Bridge : 4.064 mm/hour
Quezon, Brgy. Magsaysay : 3.13 mm/hour
Quezon, Brgy. Talisoy : 4.48 mm/hour
Albay, Dost V Compound : 6.35 mm/hour
Albay, Magayon Drive : 5.03 mm/hour
Apayao, Luna : 2.286 mm/hour
Aurora, Dingalan Central School : 3.21 mm/hour


yeah... the eyewall didnt dissapear
Quoting 779. nwobilderburg:


jesus... how many times can one thing be posted


It's every 3 hours with an active warning when a new advisory is "issued"
Quoting 779. nwobilderburg:


jesus... how many times can one thing be posted


You're new here, and you already got a ban yesterday. I suggest you start reading comments carefully if you want to fit in here.
Phailin looks like it's going to take off again, my God this is going to be a 155-170kt storm possibly at landfall. With winds like that and the size of this beast this could rival Katrina for surge. This could be one of the worst land falling storms in history.
Phailin is now roughly the size Katrina was. If this heads ever so slightly east this will hit Kolkata and the Ganger Delta of Bangladesh where tens of millions live just above sea level. Highest satellite estimates put this beast at 910.7mb with sustained winds of 175mph at Phailin's peak to this point. This could strengthen to an even stronger storm than that by landfall. India has no HH's, so exacts are not there. This is going to be a disaster of a huge magnitude. Thousands are likely to die. Praying for a miracle.
Meh. Think I'll just write a blog on Phailin tomorrow after work. Plus I'll get to cover its landfall too, which is something I've yearned to do for many years with a cyclone as intense as this.
Quoting 784. Tribucanes:
Phailin looks like it's going to take off again, my God this is going to be a 155-170kt storm possibly at landfall. With winds like that and the size of this beast this could rival Katrina for surge. This could be one of the worst land falling storms in history.

Its not just the winds and surge that will be the problem here.
Huge amounts of people live on or very close to rivers and cling to the coast for the fishing trade.
There is in most cases nowhere to go, a bit like being on a flat pacific island when the water rises everything will either be submerged or drift away. Add to this winds in excess of 100MPH and the chances of survival diminish rapidly.
Beyond the immediate cyclone effects are the accumulated waters on land which will sweep the river banks like a pressure washer.
There are probably countless millions of people around the coasts of the bay and even communications are thin on the ground in most places.
Mass evacuations are ongoing along the coast as Phailin is now a cat5.
My God Plaza, this could kill tens of thousands easily. This is now forecast to make landfall as a top end cat4 if not stronger.
Phailin is forecast to strengthen still, we could be looking at a sub 900mb storm with winds approaching 200mph, just unreal.
Quoting 789. Tribucanes:
My God Plaza, this could kill tens of thousands easily. This is now forecast to make landfall as a top end cat4 if not stronger.

Sometimes its not good to write things about what looks like a certainty.
We were watching this last night here and thinking that this could be one of the worst case scenarios in recorded weather event history.
The effects could maybe be worse than the tidal wave in the same area a few years ago.
This cyclone is striping energy from the whole of the bay and there's plenty of it to convert into misery.
I don't like to say it but the next 24 hours is going to be tragic.
Worse than the tidal wave that killed well over 100 thousand? Didn't want to be the first to say it, but I certainly thought it. This is history in the making no doubt. Have had a few six figure fatality storms in the past in this same exact area. Surreal.
It unfortunately does not take a lot to kill a ton of people in this part of the world. In that regard, I am not at all surprised by the likelihood of calamity unfolding.

Still doesn't make it suck any less, though. And that's putting it mildly. :/
The India Meteorological Department is, not surprisingly, holding a press conference later today.

Link
11/0830 UTC 16.4N 88.1E T6.5/7.0 PHAILIN -- Bay of Bengal
Looks like Phailin could remain south of that cold eddy near 17N 87E.


Good morning with the rgb-loob of Monster-Phailin.

And here the TPW:
799. ackee
This is my first post on a storm outside the Atlantic Phailin has certainly caught my attention I think this could be a huge world Disaster for months when was last time a cat 5 hit land ? also what the highest wind speed that a hurricane has ever made land form with ? Thanks in advance for a respond any one
Tens of thousands flee as cyclone "half the size of India" threatens east coast

BHUBANESWAR, India | Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:13am EDT

(Reuters) - India's east coast braced on Friday for a cyclone covering half the size of the country, with tens of thousands of residents in low-lying areas fleeing their homes after authorities forecast a risk to life and extensive damage once the storm hits land.

Satellite images showed Cyclone Phailin 600 km (360 miles) off the coast in the Bay of Bengal and likely to make landfall on Saturday evening. Some forecasters likened its size and intensity to that of hurricane Katrina, which devastated the U.S. Gulf coast and New Orleans in 2005.

The Indian Meteorological Department described Phailin as a "very severe cyclonic storm" with wind speeds of 210-220 km per hour (130-135 mph) and said it would hit between Kalingapatnam and the major port of Paradip in Odisha state. The U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted gusts of up to 305 kph.

"We plan to evacuate about 100,000 families in Ganjam district by tomorrow morning," Odisha state's Special Relief Commissioner, Pradeep Kumar Mohapatra, told Reuters. ...
Good morning folks!..nice here today but Prayers for those folks in India in Harms Way..
Nari approaching the Philippines with sunset.
Saved image:
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
548 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

PAC001-071-133-112000-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FA.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131011T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ADAMS PA-LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
548 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
ADAMS COUNTY...
LANCASTER COUNTY...
YORK COUNTY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* AT 545 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE RAIN
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS LIKELY TODAY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE THE CONEWAGO
CREEK AND CODORUS CREEK WATERSHEDS INCLUDING THE CITY OF YORK. IN
LANCASTER COUNTY SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH URBAN
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF LANCASTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN!

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH TWITTER OR FACEBOOK.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 7747 3999 7740 4003 7719 4015 7703
4016 7691 4020 7693 4022 7690 4022 7684
4018 7676 4012 7672 4019 7660 4025 7630
4031 7615 4014 7587 4011 7594 4004 7594
3992 7600 3987 7599 3973 7610 3972 7746

$$

FORECASTER: CR
Quoting barbamz:
Nari approaching the Philippines with sunset.
Saved image:




Eye spy and Eye.
806. VR46L
Good Morning Folks !!!

I take it the MJO effect is here

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Things are lining up. Not sure what they're lining up for... It's 57 degrees, 57 degrees wind chill, 57 degrees dew point, 97% humidity and an expected high of 87 later on.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: cheesy grits and shrimp, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
808. MPI88


Experimental surge forecast, a 1.4m surge corresponds to a "normal" Cat two on a mildly sloping coast. I won't be surprised to see a surge of well above 3 meter.

- Its the cat ~24 hour prior to landfall that counts.
- Shallow coast.
- Its a huge radius storm.

Historic Events:
1990 Andhra (200 km South) - Cat 4 - 5 meter
1999 Orissa (400 km North)- Cat 5 - 9 meter


Whats the rainfall rate of this storm compared to other Bay of Bengal storms?
Quoting 799. ackee:
This is my first post on a storm outside the Atlantic Phailin has certainly caught my attention I think this could be a huge world Disaster for months when was last time a cat 5 hit land ? also what the highest wind speed that a hurricane has ever made land form with ? Thanks in advance for a respond any one


Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 was the most recent Category 5 landfall, I think. Made mincement out of Luzon:

OFFICIAL: Record daily rainfall set at Harrisburg (KMDT) yesterday 10/10/13: 4.02 inches. Previous record was 1.50" set back in 1894.
Good morning everybody!

Phailin:
Quoting 804. LargoFl:
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
548 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

PAC001-071-133-112000-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FA.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131011T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ADAMS PA-LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
548 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
ADAMS COUNTY...
LANCASTER COUNTY...
YORK COUNTY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* AT 545 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE RAIN
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS LIKELY TODAY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE THE CONEWAGO
CREEK AND CODORUS CREEK WATERSHEDS INCLUDING THE CITY OF YORK. IN
LANCASTER COUNTY SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH URBAN
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF LANCASTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN!

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH TWITTER OR FACEBOOK.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 7747 3999 7740 4003 7719 4015 7703
4016 7691 4020 7693 4022 7690 4022 7684
4018 7676 4012 7672 4019 7660 4025 7630
4031 7615 4014 7587 4011 7594 4004 7594
3992 7600 3987 7599 3973 7610 3972 7746

$$

FORECASTER: CR

Thats me :p I looked at a stream down the street.... not so little anymore
813. VR46L
The big wheel keeps on turning over on the Wpac

Wipha

There's a chance for a few tornadoes today in extreme NE South Dakota, SE North Dakota, and Western Minnesota, but the main threat today will likely be damaging winds.

815. IKE
11-2-0 in the ATL, plus one TD...season, so far.

Day 133 of the season.
50 days to go.

Ground fog and 64.2 at my location. TGIF!!!!!!

And the ATL looks dead for the next week.
Quoting 809. KoritheMan:


Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 was the most recent Category 5 landfall, I think. Made mincement out of Luzon:



Actually, it was as recently as last December when Typhoon Bopha hit the Phillipines.



watching 98. further west it comes
818. IKE
Looking at the 6Z GFS.....I don't see anything in the ATL(season over?). 00Z ECMWF is about the same. Looks like colder in the east in 7-10 days.


First visible
820. IKE
From Birmingham,AL discussion....

THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE HORIZON WILL BE DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO
HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES BY TUESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY EJECTING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
SEVERAL TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...BUT I AM CURRENTLY
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WHICH IS
WHAT THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING...AND GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARDS A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. DUE
TO THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING ADVERTISED...HAVE RAISED TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO REMAIN WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.
IF GUIDANCE VERIFIES...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A CHANGE TO COOLER
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

Live: Cyclone Phailin set to lash Odisha-Andhra coast; officials fear 'extreme damage', flooding
HindustanTimes, HT Correspondents and Agencies, Hindustan Times Bhubaneswar, October 11, 2013

BTW: First decent snowfall in the European Alps (live webcam picture):



Quoting 816. Envoirment:


Actually, it was as recently as last December when Typhoon Bopha hit the Phillipines.



Pretty strong for a typhoon that formed extremely close to the equator.

Saved image from live webcam Palermo in northern Sicily, where once again a massive MCS (Mesocyclone convecitve system) is developing (we saw it many times this year).

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
not sure if anyone's posted this before but the #2 on the Bay of Bengal list is probably wrong. That 1737 cyclone probably killed 30,000. There weren't even 300,000 people living in the area.

Only reason I know this is because for some reason lost to history the 1737 cyclone was labeled an earthquake and at some point in the 18th or 19th centuries, someone added an extra zero.
98 aint going to be easy either do you know its plan?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
Quoting 826. islander101010:
98 aint going to be easy either do you know its plan?


Navgem 60 hours out. 98L survives the 60kt shear according to this model.

Cyclone Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever measured in the Indian Ocean, even more than the 1999 wrecker
India Today Online October 11, 2013 | UPDATED 16:58 IST

..."A recent satellite estimate put Phailin's current intensity on par with 2005's Hurricane Katrina in the United States and just barely stronger than the 1999 cyclone at its peak," said Eric Holthaus, a meteorologist for Quartz magazine. "That would mean Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever measured in the Indian Ocean." ...
Quoting 809. KoritheMan:


Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 was the most recent Category 5 landfall, I think. Made mincement out of Luzon:



Bopha was a Cat 5 at landfall right...
Quoting 829. barbamz:
Cyclone Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever measured in the Indian Ocean, even more than the 1999 wrecker
India Today Online October 11, 2013 | UPDATED 16:58 IST

..."A recent satellite estimate put Phailin's current intensity on par with 2005's Hurricane Katrina in the United States and just barely stronger than the 1999 cyclone at its peak," said Eric Holthaus, a meteorologist for Quartz magazine. "That would mean Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever measured in the Indian Ocean." ...


Heres the picture from the site, for those that don't like to click outside links....

Quoting 830. pie314271:


Bopha was a Cat 5 at landfall right...


Yes it was. Here is the radar if you wanted to see it make landfall....

TYPHOON BOPHA, 2012.
Statement as of 01:23 am EDT on October 11, 2013



... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Washington Dulles DC...

a record rainfall of 2.22 inch(es) was set at Washington Dulles DC
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 1.95 set in 1971.


Things would look active if you did not know that this year so far has been relatively inactive...

wind shear slowly getting closer to 98L....

Last image of Phailin before things go dark out there... This thing is a massive cyclone.

Nari's landfall is coming within the next few hours.

Hi again guys . This looks like a big one . Its raining furiously here and wind speed is increasing . Hasn't even made landing yet .
Quoting 838. g564841:
Hi again guys . This looks like a big one . Its raining furiously here and wind speed is increasing . Hasn't even made landing yet .


Are you within the path of this thing? if so, stay safe man!
Tens of thousands flee vast cyclone bears down on India.

Good to see they are taking action to stay alive.
Cyclones transfer heat from one medium to another yes?
How much heat do you think is being transferred by the current set of cyclones, considering their strength and longevity?

I like looking at these things from a fairly big perspective. I know it's probably OT ATM but I think it's an interesting question.
This cane is just massive! I hope IMD is not still undercasting it.

Quoting 838. g564841:
Hi again guys . This looks like a big one . Its raining furiously here and wind speed is increasing . Hasn't even made landing yet .


Be safe man. Keep posting on this blog to let us see you are ok. Available for anyone in that area.
846. Uggi
Looks like eyewall replacement is complete, it might start intensifying again for a final time
nice flareup with a piece or the leftovers of karen
98L has started on the downwards trend of it's chances for development being reduced.

Quoting 838. g564841:
Hi again guys . This looks like a big one . Its raining furiously here and wind speed is increasing . Hasn't even made landing yet .


Where are you?
It's incredible how fast and big Phailin has grown. I definitely feel for the people of India and pray for the best for them, I think they are going to need it.

I hope that this storm will stop those that have complained about how 'slow' this season is and what a 'bust' it is. As interesting as a Cat 4/5 can be to watch, when they come ashore thousands of people are placed in danger, lives are changed, lives are lost. I think I'd be happy with quiet season. Sure, it may not give us anything to watch, but it beats the alternatives.


Published May 22, 2013 - I really hope all those efforts won't be destroyed by Phailin now :(

When a massive cyclone struck Odisha in 1999, IDRF and its donors responded with far-sighted rehabilitation efforts. IDRF improved livelihoods of the affected people, who were barely getting by even before disaster struck. IDRF introduced deep-water-tolerant rice seeds to hundreds of farmers, and provided tailoring training for women; 30,000 coconut trees to coconut farmers; and 80,000 saplings for kitchen gardens.


Video from 2007 about the aftermath of the 1999 cyclone (and rising sea levels):
While I love a big cane, and Phailin is lovely to look at. I am praying that the people of the area can get out of the way. Unfortunately it is always the poor who have no money or means of transport, and have the most fragile living conditions who are most at risk. I hope the Indian Govt is protecting the lives of its citizens.
Quoting 852. congaline:
While I love a big cane, and Phailin is lovely to look at. I am praying that the people of the area can get out of the way. Unfortunately it is always the poor who have no money or means of transport, and have the most fragile living conditions who are most at risk. I hope the Indian Govt is protecting the lives of its citizens.


I hope so too. I hope the poor people know what is coming thier way.

The indian ocean coastline is the worst place in the world for a storm to make landfall.
Quoting 844. FunnelVortex:
This cane is just massive! I hope IMD is not still undercasting it.


From the image you posted it looks like the coastal areas are already getting massive amounts of rainfall with house to go before he cyclone makes landfall.
The image also seems to indicate that the cyclone is heading due west with its visible eye.
A lot of speculation about the effects of landfall on the coastal villages, one thing for sure nothing about this is going to be light and damages to the coastal infrastructure will be ranging from heavy to total.
We could be looking at effects similar to Sandy over hundreds of miles, or in fact much worse.
The "quality," of a lot of the structures in this area will be a long way short of sub standard.
Yikes!

Quoting 855. PlazaRed:

From the image you posted it looks like the coastal areas are already getting massive amounts of rainfall with house to go before he cyclone makes landfall.
The image also seems to indicate that the cyclone is heading due west with its visible eye.
A lot of speculation about the effects of landfall on the coastal villages, one thing for sure nothing about this is going to be light and damages to the coastal infrastructure will be ranging from heavy to total.
We could be looking at effects similar to Sandy over hundreds of miles, or in fact much worse.
The "quality," of a lot of the structures in this area will be a long way short of sub standard.


Inland flooding from this will be a huge concern.
According to the forecasts it will bring it's major hurricane force winds well inland. This isn't good.
Man the W-Pac is "Cashing Out". Link
Oh by the way the NY Giants are 0-6 so far this season. Terrible!
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘PHAILIN’ ADVISORY NO. FIFTEEN ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 11TH OCTOBER 2013
BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS of 11th OCTOBER.

Excerpt:


ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 6.0. INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA ISLANDS AND AREA BETWEEN LAT 14.00N TO 17.00N AND LONG 86.00E TO 89.00E.
THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -760C. THE SYSTEM IS EYE PATTERN.
EYE IS CIRCULAR WITH DIAMETER OF ABOUT 15 KM. EYE TEMP MINUS 6 DEG C. CLOUD
FEATURES SUGGESTS NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM(.)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO
120 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 940 HPA.



Link
862. NCstu
Quoting 858. FunnelVortex:
According to the forecasts it will bring it's major hurricane force winds well inland. This isn't good.


"Also, the government’s official storm surge forecast shows a maximum value at landfall of a little over 3 feet (1 meter)"

people are staying put to make sure that their fishing boats aren't destroyed... It's not impossible that they storm surge could be more like 20 ft and it will definitely be more than 3 feet.

"At last tally (2 a.m. Friday, India time), one satellite-based measure of Phailin’s strength estimated the storm’s central pressure at 910.7 millibars, with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 kph)."

I really hope that estimate is way off.
Phailin appears to have almost doubled in size from last night ..
A TROPICAL WAVE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM OR DEPRESSION MOVE ACROSS OR AT
LEAST GRAZE THE AREA EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

Pathetic
Quoting 856. FunnelVortex:
Yikes!


The image you have posted give a cat 4 many miles inland.
From the point of view of a person on the ground this means not only all the normal cyclone problems but added complications of near tornado threats of airborne debris which in India will be a catastrophic threat due to the flimsy nature of a lot of the constructions.
The more we see of this over the last few hours the more it looks like something not many people will ever have experienced!
Quoting 864. CaribBoy:
A TROPICAL WAVE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM OR DEPRESSION MOVE ACROSS OR AT
LEAST GRAZE THE AREA EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

Pathetic


Hey remnants are better than no remnants. Maybe with El-Nino next year you will finally see some action. There are indications that we may have a moderate El-Nino going into next years hurricane season.

Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/24 (Orange Message)
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN over Central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.


Excerpt:

(iii) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of around 3.0 m above astronomical tide
would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and
Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iv) Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive
damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and
communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from
flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.

(v) Action suggested: Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West
Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea. Total
suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail and
road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors during cyclone landfall.
Beautiful in structure but oh so deadly I'm afraid ..

Quoting 863. whitewabit:
Phailin appears to have almost doubled in size from last night ..


Good Morning. The eye diameter was 9 miles wide yesterday and 15km today. I did not follow this storm overnight but it looks like the eye wall replacement cycle that Dr. Masters mentions in his blog took place. Probably resulted in some expansion of the storm.


Dr. M:

This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, but spreads hurricane-force winds over a larger area of ocean, resulting a larger storm surge, but less wind damage. With Phailin's eye diameter already down to a tiny 9 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to occur by Friday morning.
Quoting 866. StormTrackerScott:


Hey remnants are better than no remnants. Maybe with El-Nino next year you will finally see some action. There are indications that we may have a moderate El-Nino going into next years hurricane season.


I'm not sure about that because El Nino normally tends to inhibit the hurricane season.
Quoting 869. weathermanwannabe:


Good Morning. The eye diameter was 9 miles wide yesterday and 15 today. I did not follow this storm overnight but it looks like the eye wall replacement cycle that Dr. Masters mentions in his blog took place. Probably resulted in some expansion of the storm.


Yes the EWRC started last night around midnight Central time .. was surprised this morning when it looked like a new eye wall had formed so soon ..
Quoting 870. CaribBoy:


I'm not sure about that because El Nino normally tends to inhibit the hurricane season.


It does but the ones that form could be very intense.
Look at this Rainbow loop of Phailin:

Link

Total devastation when that eye wall comes ashore; lets hope the authorities over there have had the resources to evacuate folks from the coast; their homes will certainly be wiped out with nothing to come back to.
Quoting 873. weathermanwannabe:
Look at this Rainbow loop of Pahilin:

Link

Total devastation when that eye wall comes ashore; lets hope the authorities over there have had the resources to evacuate folks from the coast; their homes will certainly be wiped out with nothing to come back to.


I doubt if there were many that evacuated .. the people just don't have the resources to leave ..
Hey guys IMO I say 98L will remain weak and stay on a steady Westward track
Following models like the BAMS and CLIP and also following the XTRP and no way it's going OTS

Phailin cloud top loop.
Wow it seems very uneventful I really hope it gets really eventful during the next few weeks before my retirement in late Nov early Dec
Quoting 868. whitewabit:
Beautiful in structure but oh so deadly I'm afraid ..

Is it possible that the Atlantic will have some of it remnants.
Quoting 878. HurricaneAndre:
Is it possible that the Atlantic will have some of it remnants.


LOLWHUT?
880. SLU
Quoting 866. StormTrackerScott:


Hey remnants are better than no remnants. Maybe with El-Nino next year you will finally see some action. There are indications that we may have a moderate El-Nino going into next years hurricane season.



lol Scott
Quoting 878. HurricaneAndre:
Is it possible that the Atlantic will have some of it remnants.


Uh .. NO!!
882. SLU
So far as killer hurricanes go, this one is pretty bad.

Quoting 878. HurricaneAndre:
Is it possible that the Atlantic will have some of it remnants.


Look at post 840 and check direction of Phailin and where the Atlantic is located.

No major remnants are going to affect the Atlantic
Quoting 876. barbamz:

Phailin cloud top loop.


Notice the circular topography around the storm. Have to wonder if that topography helps spin up the circulations in that region much like the Bay of Campeche effect near the Gulf.


Will also note that the latest visible loops are starting to show that "stadium" effect in the eye. Not a good scenario for a storm nearing landfall.
Phailin looks to be structurally perfect...or very close to it. Prayers and thoughts, prayers and thoughts. I wonder how evac is going. I hope its going exceptionally well.
It looks like Eyewall Replacement is in the process of finishing up for Phailin.

887. SLU
leftovers of karen look interesting two areas
We also have two active back-to-back storms in the West Pacific at the moment:

Link

The Atlantic is quiet but the world wide tropics have been very active this year. Also have to wonder about the global "connections" in the tropics and whether high activity in one basin might impact storm formation in other basins...........We have observed an inverse relationship between the E-Pac and Atlantic season which we follow on here.

The MJO, I believe, is a "global" oscillation but I do not track it across the Pacific Basin and Indian ocean's etc and whether it is currently in an active phase in the Bay of Bengal and/or West Pacific.
Does anyone think that, based on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, Phailin was a category five equivalent cyclone yesterday? It sure looked like it, but all sources I have seen have a maximum at 155 mph (cat. 4).
Quoting 890. hydrus:


A recon into that would have been interesting
Quoting 878. HurricaneAndre:
Is it possible that the Atlantic will have some of it remnants.
only if after landfall it tracks over the him. mountains across northern Russia over the arctic down inyo canada enter the atlantic from ne us coast into the atlantic it goes

but really no chance of that happening
http://www.ndtv.com/

Good English language site for India news. Live news feed also available on this site. idk how much storm coverage they will carry though.

02B/MH/P/C4
Quoting 862. NCstu:


"Also, the government’s official storm surge forecast shows a maximum value at landfall of a little over 3 feet (1 meter)"

people are staying put to make sure that their fishing boats aren't destroyed... It's not impossible that they storm surge could be more like 20 ft and it will definitely be more than 3 feet.

"At last tally (2 a.m. Friday, India time), one satellite-based measure of Phailin’s strength estimated the storm’s central pressure at 910.7 millibars, with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 kph)."

I really hope that estimate is way off.

They are officially forecasting "3 feet" of storm surge... for a category 4 cyclone?

Although bathymetry and storm size play big roles as well, I'm not sure what situation would cause a category 4 storm to only produce 3 feet of surge.
Just asking but was there ever a Cat 5 hurricane in the BOB before? If yes was it also this dangerous.. ._.
Prayers to all in Eastern India.
Quoting 897. hydrus:
Looking good and bad.
98 will be gone in a couple of days.......
Quoting 898. Gino99:
Just asking but was there ever a Cat 5 hurricane in the BOB before? If yes was it also this dangerous.. ._.
Prayers to all in Eastern India.


1999 Orissa cyclone
Quoting 882. SLU:
So far as killer hurricanes go, this one is pretty bad.

Looks really menacing.

Nari made landfall with 105 knot winds.
From Al Jazeera:
"While officials said they had already begun evacuations, an Associated Press news agency photographer saw little sign of that in Odisha on Thursday."
905. beell
nrt knows meters!
:)
Hey everyone, joining back after a healthy night of sleep and wonderful lunch... and I see that Phailin looks even more dangerous than yesterday, and it might still strengthen a bit before landfall...


Yesterday there were a lot of people, including me, voicing great concern over how amateurish the IMD is responding to this and how they seem to be severely underestimating the size and potential of this storm - I see this has not changed today - even though this obviously is a sub-920mb storm, they still have it at 940, and are predicting a 3-6ft storm surge, which is preposterous to say the least. I mean, is there no one to tell them how extremely irresponsible this is, is there no communication between the JTWC and IMD and the other stations?

And for conversation's sake, I hope Napolitano aka Captain Obvious doesn't join in again with his pointless chatter, obviously I am aware that all precautions that they could have taken are going at full steam... It just strikes me as weird that a nation of 1+ billion people cannot properly train and finance ONE SINGLE institution - not talking about preparing every village along the coast and having shelters and emergency response personnel, I'm talking about 1 building in Delhi or wherever that is properly staffed and properly equipped - something which, very apparently, India DOES NOT currently possess...
910. NCstu
Quoting 903. MoltenIce:
Looks really menacing.

Nari made landfall with 105 knot winds.


it's striking how weak this storm looks compared to Phailin.
Beautiful storm, terrible consequences. :/

Current Wind Speed 135 knots / 155 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 140 knots / 161 MPH at October 11, 2013 2:00pm



Quoting 867. nrtiwlnvragn:



Excerpt:

(iii) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of around 3.0 m above astronomical tide
would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and
Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.





According to this post, they are predicting 3 meters of storm surge, not 3 feet...
914. SLU
02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-167N-877E

We've not seen anything like this in the Atlantic in the last 1/2 decade.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 901. Torito:


1999 Orissa cyclone


Thanks!
Quoting 913. rudyinpompano:


According to this post, they are predicting 3 meters of storm surge, not 3 feet...

Even then... if Phailin produces surge anything similar to the Orissa Cyclone, then ~9ft will still be way under.
Quoting 916. Gino99:


Thanks!


no problem. jeff masters has more information on it in his new blog that he just posted.
What does the ocean look like under a cyclone such as Phailin? I'll check for myself later, too busy to surf the net right now.

Hello guys .. so the rain has stopped for now .the hawii watch is saying its gonna be a category 5 cyclone with speed 300+ , but imd is still insisting its not THAT bad .I can see rescue planes flowing in . At least the state is taking it seriously . What is the news from your analysis ?
Quoting 920. g564841:
Hello guys .. so the rain has stopped for now .the hawii watch is saying its gonna be a category 5 cyclone with speed 300+ , but imd is still insisting its not THAT bad .I can see rescue planes flowing in . At least the state is taking it seriously . What is the news from your analysis ?

maybe not 300 kph... but it will probably impact as a Cat 4/ low Cat 5 Storm.... there will probably be high storm surge. How far inland are they evacuating people
Jeff, the prediction of this catastrophe is too scary. Even scarier are the anticipations. Natural calamities are out of control but what we can do is to make preparations to minimize the devastation. May this impending danger would not cause huge loss of lives! All other losses can be compensated but not lives.
DbaiG
Bolee.com
Quoting 922. DeeBaiG:
Jeff, the prediction of this catastrophe is too scary. Even scarier are the anticipations. Natural calamities are out of control but what we can do is to make preparations to minimize the devastation. May this impending danger would not cause huge loss of lives! All other losses can be compensated but not lives.
DbaiG
Bolee.com


old blog. new one here.

Link