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Category 3 Raymond Drenching Acapulco; TD 13 Forms; Extreme Air Pollution in China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:22 PM GMT on October 21, 2013

Hurricane Raymond roared into life on Sunday just offshore from Acapulco, Mexico, rapidly intensifying from a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a major Category 3 hurricane in just 24 hours. Raymond is the first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2013, making it the first year since 1968 that both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic had made it into October without a major hurricane. Raymond has brought more than 3" of rain so far to Acapulco, where a Hurricane Watch is posted. As of 8 am EDT, Raymond was drifting slowly northwards at 2 mph toward Mexico, and was centered about 165 miles west-southwest of Acapulco. Raymond is expected to bring heavy rains of up to 8" to the coast, and this is an area where heavy rains are definitely most unwelcome. Hurricane Manuel hit this region of Mexico with extreme torrential rains when it made landfall on September 15, triggering deadly mudslides and flooding that left 169 people dead or missing and caused $4.2 billion in damage. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this was the second most expensive weather-related disaster in Mexican history, behind the $6 billion in damage (2013 dollars) wrought by Hurricane Wilma in October 2005.

Raymond is in an area with weak steering currents, and is likely to show some erratic movement until Wednesday, when a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in and force the storm westwards, away form the coast. Given Raymond's very slow movement, the storm may weaken later today and on Tuesday, as it stirs up colder water from below. However, there is no evidence of weakening on the latest satellite loops, which show a well-organized hurricane with a prominent eye and impressive-looking eyewall clouds with cold tops that reach high into the atmosphere.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a detailed look at the ocean temperatures and steering flow affecting Raymond.


Figure 1. Aerial view of the landslide triggered by Hurricane Manuel's rains, which killed 43 people in La Pintada, México, on September 19, 2013. (Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty)

TD 13 forms in the Middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed from an area of disturbed weather located about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Satellite loops show TD 13 has a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms and solid low-level spin. An ASCAT pass from 1:22 UTC Monday morning showed a closed surface circulation, and top winds of 30 - 40 mph on the storm's east side. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, but is expected to increase to the high range by Tuesday night, giving TD 13 a short window in which to develop. If it does intensify, it will become Tropical Storm Lorenzo. TD 13 will not be a threat to any land areas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 13, taken at approximately 12:30 pm EDT October 21, 2013. At the time, TD 13 had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 2 Typhoon Francisco has steadily weakened on Sunday and Monday, after spending just over a day as Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013 on Saturday. Satellite loops show a large, cloud-filled eye and a decaying eyewall. Since wind shear remains low, the weakening is likely in response to cooler ocean temperatures, since Francisco is now traversing a large cool patch of ocean up to 2°C colder than the surrounding waters, left behind by the churning action of Typhoon Wipha last week. By the time Francisco makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday and Friday, it will be undergoing transition to an extratropical storm. Francisco's interaction with a cold front over Japan during this process will bring very heavy rains to Japan, and these rains will pose a serious flooding threat, as the soils have not had a chance to dry out much from the record rains that Typhoon Wipha brought last week. The 00Z Monday run of the HWRF model predicted a large swath of 4 - 8 inches of rain for Japan from Francisco. The University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog has some impressive images of Francisco from when it was a Super Typhoon.


Figure 3. Infrared satellite image of Super Typhoon Francisco, taken at 15:48 UTC on October 18, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a high-end Category 4 storm with top winds of 155 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog.

China's 10th-largest city shuts down because of extreme air pollution
Harbin, China, the nation's 10th most populous city with a population of 11 million, has virtually shut down today because of extreme levels of air pollution reaching up to 1,000 micrograms per cubic meter. The safe level recommended by the World Heath Organization (WHO) is just 25 micrograms per cubic meter. The dense pollution was created by stagnant air on a day when the city's heating systems kicked in for the first time this fall. With visibility less than 50 yards, the airport was forced to close, as well as most schools and some roads. Cir.ca has some remarkable images of the event, and here is zoomable map of real-time Chinese air quality.


Figure 4. A woman walks along a road as extreme air pollution engulfs the city on October 21, 2013 in Harbin, China. ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images


Video 1. Extreme air pollution in Harbin, China on October 21, 2013. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for alerting me to this video.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

is raymond making a run for the gulf?
Quoting 498. BaltimoreBrian:


This is pretty cool Cody. Thanks for linking it. Hadn't heard of WeatherBrains before.


Wasn't there a high risk on May 31? It seems like it was a very ominious day with storms forecast to form west of OKC.

Nope, just a Moderate risk. They did issue a PDS tornado watch though.
Quoting 497. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lekima is quickly becoming a potent typhoon.


The West Pacific is the perfect breeding ground for these monstahs. Very warm to a remarkable depth providing almost limitless energy. Even after the same region is affected by several cyclones, a huge amount of energy remains to feed the most powerful cyclones on Earth.
Quoting 501. islander101010:
is raymond making a run for the gulf?


No....

Quoting 502. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope, just a Moderate risk. They did issue a PDS tornado watch though.


nice link brotha. :3

I needed an excuse to avoid going to sleep... xD
Quoting 481. beell:


West I expected. North could never be discounted. But east!?
Could be just a wobble, but it definitely went east. I have seen them defy the models before, so I am not seeped in the dogma of predestined tracts. We'll find out soon enough. Tonight's forecast: Dark.
Quoting 470. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Raymond's moving east now. Eye a bit cooler.

Raymond sees that the highest wind speed from a tropical system in the Atlantic basin so far is 85 mph.

So Raymond responded- "Oh snap?! I have always wanted to break a record all my life. And I've been up to 125 mph already. I will run to the GOMEX. I can do this! Now is my chance! YOLO!!"




Quoting 503. hydrus:
The West Pacific is the perfect breeding ground for these monstahs. Very warm to a remarkable depth providing almost limitless energy. Even after the same region is affected by several cyclones, a huge amount of energy remains to feed the most powerful cyclones on Earth.
Yeah, but it is feeding the energy straight to the North late into the season, and too many storms can cool the Pacific resulting in, Dah,Dah,Dah .. Dah, ... EGC!
If anyone is interested, I wrote a blog (my first in a while) about the possibility of a significant weather event affecting Texas in the extended range. Feel free to check it out!

Significant Weather Event for Texas on the Horizon?
Quoting 507. Pallis:
Could be just a wobble, but it definitely went east. I have seen them defy the models before, so I am not seeped in the dogma of predestined tracts. We'll find out soon enough. Tonight's forecast: Dark.


i think that is a bit more than a wobble, dude....

Link
nasa wrote a somewhat rare article about raymond a few hours ago, good read here.

Link
RAYMOND.

Quoting 474. CaribBoy:


24hr rainfall amount : 2 inches. OF COURSE NO FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE REPORTED : SOILS WERE SO DRY... LOL.
so you finally got some decent rains my friend
Lorenzo has that karen shape to it.... (SHRIMP)


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013

...LORENZO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 53.8W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013

ALTHOUGH LORENZO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION
AS A RESULT OF 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB
AND T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT PASSES WHICH SHOWED
MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AFFECTING LORENZO SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP
DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE TO INFILTRATE THE CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STEADY DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER. THE SHEAR...COLDER
WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. IF THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...LORENZO COULD DISSIPATE ABOUT A DAY
EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT LORENZO HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 055/8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BUT JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE STRONGEST STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE...LORENZO IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE JUST BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT QUITE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 29.3N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 29.7N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 29.9N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 30.2N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 30.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 32.5N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Cody I don't agree with everything Mike Morgan said. In fact I disagree with a lot of the on-air calls he made. However you have to give him props for appearing on a lengthy no-holds-barred interview. Most people won't do that.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...RAYMOND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE....
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 101.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING AS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE OBSCURED IT A BIT. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS STILL VERY WELL
DEFINED IN THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 0000 UTC.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AND BY
WEDNESDAY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE AN ADDITIONAL
DECREASE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER....RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD SINCE THE RELEASE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN WESTWARD...WITH A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS CYCLE ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE RAYMOND GETS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES ONCE IT TURNS WESTWARD IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF
THE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 16.4N 101.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.3N 101.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.2N 101.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.9N 103.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 15.8N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2013 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 15:37:07 N Lon : 157:36:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 959.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.7 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.0C Cloud Region Temp : -76.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
2013OCT22 020100 4.8 961.4 +2.6 84.8 4.8 6.0 6.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -26.04 -76.52 EYE/P -99 IR 59.6 15.64 -157.61

can anyone confirm that the bold part mean pinhole eye or something else..

I've been wondering lately.
Quoting 488. Pallis:
Oh c'mon Teddy, you defended the ionosphere deniers with the, "most people here do not even know what the ionosphere is" line without explaining any science based facts to anyone. I like to argue points. You just like to argue. Do you have some Chickasaw in your wood pile? I will add this bit of advise from my very close friend who sells insurance." It never goes down. It might stay the same for a while, or go up, but it never goes down."


"Most people here do not even know what the ionosphere is." That's not what I said, I said most proponents of the HAARP theory don't even know where the ionosphere even is. I know that not from facts or statistics, but from experience. I wasn't insulting anyone or you for that matter. You're right though, I enjoy a good argument.

I'm not entirely sure what your beef is with me, by the way. If you think anything I've said is personal, it isn't. I just question your perception of what you view as a valid argument.
Eastern Pacific: Major Hurricane Raymond. Probably down to 115mph by now, looks like either an EWRC or shear (or both). Continued weakening looks likely.


Western Pacific: Dual typhoons.

Francisco seems to be having a hard time dealing with its EWRC.


Whereas Lekima seems content on becoming another Super Typhoon for the Pacific.



... and the Atlantic? A sheared tropical storm. I wasn't even aware this thing so much as existed until I checked on Raymond this morning.
Quoting 511. Torito:


i think that is a bit more than a wobble, dude....

Link
Whoa, that link almost fried everything. I am still using my 1976 Apple 1 here. If you go on like that there are a whole bunch of regulars that will pounce on you if you are wrong. This is supposed to be a weather discussion blog, but it is really more like a weather warrior destroy opposite argument blog. Most of the defeated are lurking to win any argument, because they are so angry about losing the coveted Aggravated Global Warming Blogger award. From what I gather, the winner would have won a diamond studded bicycle if the weather would have turned out differently, so you can see why they are so malfeasant.
Just... Wow.
Quoting 523. CybrTeddy:


"Most people here do not even know what the ionosphere is." That's not what I said, I said most proponents of the HAARP theory don't even know where the ionosphere even is. I know that not from facts or statistics, but from experience. I wasn't insulting anyone or you for that matter. You're right though, I enjoy a good argument.

I'm not entirely sure what your beef is with me, by the way. If you think anything I've said is personal, it isn't. I just question your perception of what you view as a valid argument.
Ha, Ha, that's funny. No beef, I just like to argue points too. My friend was training to go to West Point and I read the books with him and play tested what he memorized. You know what the term for a citizen who trusts the government is?
Raymond looks like he is completing his eyewall replacement cycle. I'd expect to see the eye clear back out by morning.



*EDIT: if I can ever get the image to show up...
Good Night Peeps, Stay Safe, Stay Warm, Interact Nicely, Sleep Well.....
Quoting 439. joeken3:
Lorenzo. Yet ANOTHER instance of the NHC padding numbers to try to save face from their ridiculous season outlook they issued way back before the season began. Just pathetic.

And Raymond TA13, do we really care? No. We don't.


As if the rest of this post wasn't bad enough, the National Hurricane Center doesn't even issue seasonal predictions.
Quoting 522. HadesGodWyvern:
2013OCT22 020100 4.8 961.4 +2.6 84.8 4.8 6.0 6.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -26.04 -76.52 EYE/P -99 IR 59.6 15.64 -157.61

can anyone confirm that the bold part mean pinhole eye or something else..

I've been wondering lately.

It's pinhole.
Quoting 530. AussieStorm:
Insurance claims from the NSW bushfire emergency have topped $100 million even though assessors haven't been let into the worst-hit regions yet.


A lot of alarming stories in our news about the Australian fires. Are they still spreading quickly and is a merger into a giant fire west of Sydney still a possibility?
Quoting joeken3:
Lorenzo. Yet ANOTHER instance of the NHC padding numbers to try to save face from their ridiculous season outlook they issued way back before the season began. Just pathetic.

And Raymond TA13, do we really care? No. We don't.


oh go away and only come back when you have something useful to say. I guess you've never been told "If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all".
Quoting 431. GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...


I'm annoyed by that weather pattern. When do we get out of it? This is late October, not August.
Lekima. I'm pretty sure it's stronger than a Cat 1 by now.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


A lot of alarming stories in our news about the Australian fires. Are they still spreading quickly and is a merger into a giant fire west of Sydney still a possibility?

The merge of 2 of the 3 fires in the Blue Mountains happened last night. Tomorrow is D-day here with forecasted very high temps and very strong NW wind before a SW change. All schools in Blue Mountains closed tomorrow, as well as some schools in Southern Highlands and Hawkesbury.

Here is a tweet from Deputy Commissioner Rob Rogers.

Rob Rogers @robrfs
In my 33 years as an RFS member, I've never faced a more challenging fire scenario that we are facing over the next 48 hours. #nswfires
Major Fire Updates

School Closure Information - 23 October 22/10/13 14:44
Posted: 22/10/2013
Due to the large amount of fire activity and predicted deteriorating conditions, there will be a number of school closures on Wednesday 23 October 2013.



The following schools will be closed:

All public, Catholic and Independent schools in the Blue Mountains local government area
Bargo Public School
Buxton Public School
Comleroy Road Public School
Hill Top Public School
Grose View Public School
Kurrajong North Public School
East Kurrajong Public School
Wilton Public School
Yanderra Public School
Further updates will be posted throughout the afternoon.

Here is a link to a photo gallery from the fires.

back soon, need to walk up the street to get the kids from school.
Now if only we could move Lorenzo 37 degrees west, it would be directly over my house. :)
Quoting 514. junie1:
so you finally got some decent rains my friend


YES !! WAS ABOUT TIME!!!
L is lost in the middle of the ocean ===== B-O-R-I-N-G
Quoting 540. CaribBoy:


YES !! WAS ABOUT TIME!!!


Now all we need is that hurricane you've been wanting, eh? :)
I hope the fires are brought under control as soon as possible AussieStorm. Good luck!
Looks can be deceiving:

Quoting 544. KoritheMan:
Looks can be deceiving:



First impressions are everything.

:p
Quoting 545. Astrometeor:


First impressions are everything.

:p


They are!
Quoting 546. KoritheMan:


They are!


Usually anyway...



2013.
Quoting 542. KoritheMan:


Now all we need is that hurricane you've been wanting, eh? :)


Lol yes, still waiting for another JOSEEEEEE (1999) xD

Sorry for the late reply, I was reading tech news...
Hey guys last words before popping off to bed
Lorenzo is one of the better looking tropical systems in the Atlantic this season

I am now off and dead tired I now have a new job now that I'm retiring from weather underground and weather blogging as a whole I have more time which I spent getting a new job and my boss is great he and I share a connection which is the military so he understands me and vice versa so it's easier to work well I find it easier
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...RAYMOND DRIFTING ERRATICALLY WHILE CONTINUING TO CAUSE HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 101.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
551. VR46L
Quoting 549. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys last words before popping off to bed
Lorenzo is one of the better looking tropical systems in the Atlantic this season

I am now off and dead tired I now have a new job now that I'm retiring from weather underground and weather blogging as a whole I have more time which I spent getting a new job and my boss is great he and I share a connection which is the military so he understands me and vice versa so it's easier to work well I find it easier


I will miss you ! I enjoy your take on where storms are going
Quoting 549. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys last words before popping off to bed
Lorenzo is one of the better looking tropical systems in the Atlantic this season

I am now off and dead tired I now have a new job now that I'm retiring from weather underground and weather blogging as a whole I have more time which I spent getting a new job and my boss is great he and I share a connection which is the military so he understands me and vice versa so it's easier to work well I find it easier


Glad to hear you seem to have found a good job.

However, you may not know this, but I will miss your presence on this blog. I'm sure a lot of people feel the same way, even if they do frequently accuse you of wishcasting. :P

Best regards from my end.

*extends hand in preparation for a virtual handshake*
553. VR46L
Is tail of the front cutting from the rest?



554. VR46L
Hmmm Navy WV

555. VR46L
Good Job the Shear is so high

Raymond weakened to 100 kts.

EP, 17, 2013102206, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1020W, 100, 959, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1007, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, D,
AL, 13, 2013102206, , BEST, 0, 294N, 534W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0, 1016, 160, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, M,
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM October 22 2013
====================================

The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over southwest off Bay of Bengal off northern Tamil Nadu-southern Andhra Predesh coasts now lies over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal off southern Andhra Predesh-northern Tamil Nadu coast at 13.0N 82.0E.

Dvorak Intensity T1.0
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
15:00 PM JST October 22 2013
=====================================

Southeast of Minami Daito Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (945 hPa) located at 22.8N 133.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
270 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
240 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 24.5N 131.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) south of Minami Daito Island
48 HRS: 26.1N 130.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) northwest of Minami Daito Island
72 HRS: 29.8N 133.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON LEKIMA (T1328)
15:00 PM JST October 22 2013
=====================================

South Southeast of Minami torishima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Lekima (955 hPa) located at 16.2N 156.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 17 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
150 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 19.1N 151.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) south southwest of Minami torishima
48 HRS: 22.2N 147.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) west southwest of Minami torishima
72 HRS: 27.2N 146.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
18:00 PM FST October 22 2013
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1002 hPa) located at 11.6S 169.4E is reported as moving south at about 10 knots. Position poor

Expect clockwise winds up to 35 knots within 50-160 NM away from the center in the eastern semi-circle
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

...LORENZO TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 53.0W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013

...RAYMOND A LITTLE WEAKER BUT CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 102.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS DEEP CLOUDINESS. THE
LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 35 KT. LORENZO COULD
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE VERTICAL
CIRCULATION BECOMING HIGHLY TILTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
STRONG SHEAR. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF LORENZO SHOULD AID IN THE
WEAKENING PROCESS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4
DAYS...BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS OCCURRING SOONER.

LORENZO IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM MOVES IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 29.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 29.7N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 29.9N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 30.2N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 30.8N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 32.8N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013

THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE ON INFRARED
IMAGERY...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
REDUCED TO 100 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
RAYMOND AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE
OF THE INTENSITY. THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND RAYMOND
SHOULD TRAVERSE WARM WATERS THROUGH 120 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING
THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE NHC
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO
THE LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM MODEL ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION.

ASIDE FROM SOME MEANDERING...THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RAYMOND IS LOCATED NEAR A COL IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TODAY. THEREFORE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY FOR
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST. IN 36-48
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND...WITH THIS RIDGE
BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOMORROW...AND TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
2-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION.

REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
COMES TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 16.5N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.1N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 15.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 15.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Good Morning Everyone:

Lorenzo seems to be flaring up this morning! Although shear is increasing, it is has an impressive look on satellite..

Looking back at the past week of Atlantic tropical weather (or lack of!), is Lorenzo the remnants of 98L? Or ... did 98L get sheared apart by the ULL northeast of the Leeward Islands, several days ago? Just wondering because Lorenzo blew up quickly yesterday! Just 24 hours before it was named, it was not even being mentioned as an invest or area of interest.
Good Morning Folks!................
Good morning everybody.

Looks likely that Lekima will end up becoming the 4th category 5 of 2013.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 61 all around with 100% humidity. No rain, just humid.

My thoughts and prayers to those in Mexico. Raymond needs to turn soon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: baked eggs and spinach, broccoli & cheddar omelet, egg white or full egg cheese wrap, egg and sausage casserole, Canadian bacon breakfast cups, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, French Toast Roll-Ups, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


Lekima now forecast to be earth's 4th category 5 of the 2013. The Western Pacific just keeps pumping them. Does any one know how many cat 5's we usually get year round?
Quoting 571. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody.

Looks likely that Lekima will end up becoming the 4th category 5 of 2013.


It's about there already.

22/0830 UTC 16.7N 156.1E T6.5/6.5 LEKIMA -- West Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 935.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.7 7.1

It's just amazing what this basin has done in the past few weeks.
Quoting 574. Hurricane614:


Lekima now forecast to be earth's 4th category 5 of the 2013. The Western Pacific just keeps pumping them. Does any one know how many cat 5's we usually get year round?



Not this many cat 5 storms in a row. xD
Lekima has undergone quite the phase of explosive intensification and is likely a category 5 at this point. Incredible.
This is a very nice POWER POINT PRESENTATION about last year's typhoon season, for those that are interested..........

Just open it and it should open with powerpoint.
Link
MiamiHurricanes - That's number 4. The fourth Category 5 this year out there. The earth is warming--and rapidly. The Doc said there would be stronger storms with the result of us pumping trillions of tons of C02 in the atmosphere per year.
morning all

Quoting 580. GiovannaDatoli:
MiamiHurricanes - That's number 4. The fourth Category 5 this year out there. The earth is warming--and rapidly. The Doc said there would be stronger storms with the result of us pumping trillions of tons of C02 in the atmosphere per year.

Multiple Category 5 hurricanes coming out of the West Pacific in any given year is not atypical.
Hmm Lorenzo is looking really good
Quoting 575. beell:
NCEP/MAG is down for all or just me?

Down on this end too.
I say Lorenzo may even take a run at becoming 50mph TS
Quoting 583. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Multiple Category 5 hurricanes coming out of the West Pacific in any given year is not atypical.

Are you denying the existence of climate change?
Lorenzo looks much better this morning.

589. beell
Quoting 585. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Down on this end too.


Thank you, sir.
Quoting 587. Coldwellrnd:

Are you denying the existence of climate change?

I hope not. Because if you really believe AGW is made up, well then I'm assuming you're one of those who understands climate change and the anthropogenic effects of CO2 from the likes of WUWT? ;-)

The truth is--and has been documented by NASA and thousands of climate scientists is that the globe is warming, and rapidly. And the global extremes that are occurring will only become that of, more extreme. More extreme flooding, violent tornadoes, and large destructive hurricanes. Sure, we can buy into the never-ending propaganda of what Big Oil and the fossil fuel industry wants you to believe. If you don't believe science, the rest is simply banter from denialists.
Quoting 587. Coldwellrnd:

Are you denying the existence of climate change?


I think he's stating a fact.
Excerpt from Miami NWS Disco...I'll take it!

THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH PWATS NEARING 2.25 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME WITH ANY STORMS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL
INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAINFALL
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. MODELS
THEN STAY IN AGREEMENT WITH A SECONDARY FRONT SURGING THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 50S SHOULD
BE SEEN ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
Quoting 587. Coldwellrnd:

Are you denying the existence of climate change?

No, but I'm implying there is a lot of uncertainty regarding how the number of intense tropical cyclones will change in future years. We just don't know yet.
Quoting 591. Sfloridacat5:


I think he's stating a fact.


Indeed. WPAC will usually have plenty of super typhoons. His statement had nothing to do with denying GW, just saying they have them regardless. It's one, big, warm ocean with or without it.

To me this year, the main odd thing is that it seems so many are beelining towards Japan, as Phillipines is normally the main target repeatedly. Japan's luckier in that they usually veer N/E (not including the southern Japanese islands that are a bit more in the zone)
Quoting 590. GiovanniDatoli:

I hope not. Because if you really believe AGW is made up, well then I'm assuming you're one of those who understands climate change and the anthropogenic effects of CO2 from the likes of WUWT? ;-)

The truth is--and has been documented by NASA and thousands of climate scientists is that the globe is warming, and rapidly. And the global extremes that are occurring will only become that of, more extreme. More extreme flooding, violent tornadoes, and large destructive hurricanes. Sure, we can buy into the never-ending propaganda of what Big Oil and the fossil fuel industry wants you to believe. If you don't believe science, the rest is simply banter from denialists.

Why does everything have to be about AGW with some people!!!??? Sheesh!!
Quoting 593. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, but I'm implying there is a lot of uncertainty regarding how the number of intense tropical cyclones will change in future years. We just don't know yet.

We don't know. Correct. Just like with with droughts increasing or flooding getting worse. There hasn't been any evidence of this happening....and we just don't know right now if these will increase in future years.
Quoting 551. VR46L:


I will miss you ! I enjoy your take on where storms are going
Quoting 552. KoritheMan:


Glad to hear you seem to have found a good job.

However, you may not know this, but I will miss your presence on this blog. I'm sure a lot of people feel the same way, even if they do frequently accuse you of wishcasting. :P

Best regards from my end.

*extends hand in preparation for a virtual handshake*

Thanks guy I'll miss u guys too
Lol with the wishcasting
Well in terms of winter storm and this winter season I can only hope it's better than hurricane season and I do hope that the SE gets it good this year with a loot of cold snaps she cause if that happens then down here get colder which I enjoy dearly to be honest I dislike the heat
But I can't say much as I'll be leaving on the first week of dec
I see the latest powerhouse storm, Lorenzo, continues to pile up ACE out in the Atlantic. It's added a whopping 0.1225 units to the mix. Outstanding! 2013 may make it over the 30 mark by the time Lorenzo dissipates... ;-)

(I also see some of the tired old trolls are back with us this morning. One would think they'd eventually get weary of their games. But, alas. Anyway, I hope everyone just ignores them...)
Quoting 595. GeoffreyWPB:

I hope that front in the GOM would be able to make its way down here
Quoting 600. Neapolitan:
I see the latest powerhouse storm, Lorenzo, continues to pile up ACE out in the Atlantic. It's added a whopping 0.1225 units to the mix. Outstanding! 2013 may make it over the 30 mark by the time Lorenzo dissipates... ;-)

(I also see some of the tired old trolls are back with us this morning. One would think they'd eventually get weary of their games. But, alas. Anyway, I hope everyone just ignores them...)

Lol
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the season as of 2100 UTC October 16 is 28.4725 units.
Lorenzo is up to 45 knots...

AL, 13, 2013102212, , BEST, 0, 294N, 524W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0, 1014, 160, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, M,
Lorenza is the one below. Not bad. UP to 45 Knots now.



And here is Lekima! Beast!

Quoting 603. wunderkidcayman:
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the season as of 2100 UTC October 16 is 28.4725 units.

I've not updated that to include Lorenzo, was busy yesterday afternoon. I think, but don't hold me to this, that it's updated on the actual 2013 Atlantic hurricane season ACE Calc page.
Quoting 587. Coldwellrnd:

Are you denying the existence of climate change?


No, he's stating a fact. This is not atypical for the pacific. Even if it was atypical, a single season doesn't say anything about the climate one way or the other.
Another beast.


Raw ADT for Lekima is up to 7.0.
Good morning all...thought I would share this graphic for you all.

Another large scale modulator of tropical cyclone development in the eastern Atlantic is the Saharan Air Layer (or SAL), first identified in the 1970s.151 From late spring to early autumn the enhanced warm season solar radiation causes deep mixing over the Saharan Desert that results in a dry, well-mixed boundary layer that can extend up to 500 hPa. At its southern end, this Saharan boundary layer air is bounded by the African Easterly Jet, which has peak amplitude of 10–25 m s-1 near 700 hPa (Fig. 8.56). Sand storms created in this dry environment result in suspended particles throughout the layer (Fig. 2.40). Advection of this desert boundary layer over the Atlantic Ocean (often in association with an African easterly wave progression) results in its being undercut by a moist marine layer and creates the SAL. The SAL is thus an elevated layer of very dry, well-mixed air embedded in the Atlantic marine environment (Fig 5.20, Chapter 5).



Fig. 8.56. Schematic of the Saharan Air Layer, and influences on genesis, as described by Dunion and Velden152 and Karyampudi and Pierce.153 The African easterly jet (AEJ) at the southern bound of the SAL and an African easterly wave are shown. The cross–section is a conceptual model of the SAL, AEJ, and convective weather systems based on the JET 2000 field program.

A relationship between the SAL and tropical cyclogenesis is not surprising as the SAL is most prevalent off the West African coast in the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis.151,154,155 Active convection may persist on its southern and western boundaries, but low relative humidity in the SAL suppresses convection elsewhere. As a SAL outbreak moves off the west coast of Africa, the 700 hPa African easterly jet also elongates offshore due to the meridional temperature gradient between the SAL air and the tropical air to the south.153 Cyclonic shear vorticity south of this mid–level jet accompanied by a mid–level disturbance (the easterly wave) can generate cross–contour flow in the vorticity field, leading to cyclonic vorticity advection and the enhancement of a nearby surface disturbance south of the mid–level easterly jet (Fig. 8.56). Eventual coupling of low– and mid–level disturbances can then lead to tropical depression formation.

This positive relationship between the SAL and tropical cyclone formation is not ubiquitous however. Large SAL outbreaks can weaken any mid–level disturbances in the flow through the generation of a stronger mid–level easterly jet, which causes a more zonally oriented mid–level flow, thus eliminating this tropical cyclogenesis mechanism. In some cases, the SAL can weaken or limit intensification, e.g., Erin in 2001 (Fig. 2.41). As expected then, over–forecasting of genesis by North Atlantic operational numerical models has been attributed to inadequate characterization of the SAL elevated dry layer and accompanying jet.156 Since the early 2000s, a special satellite retrieval algorithm152 (Chapter 2, Section 2.8) and targeted field measurements have increased our knowledge of the structure of the SAL and its role as a modulator of tropical cyclogenesis157 Fig.2.41.

While the SAL may inhibit development of African easterly waves into tropical storms,152 the waves have been proposed as transportation for Saharan dust158 and so may be implicated in their own demise! Western Sahel rainfall has also been linked to North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.31,159 Whether the SAL is involved in any intraseasonal modulation of Atlantic storm activity related to western Sahel rainfall—or whether Sahel rainfall is a straightforward proxy for easterly wave genesis frequency—remains an open question.

Link
608 - Off topic. Stick to the yahoo blogs okay

611 - how inappropriate. I'm a woman and I find that offensive!!!

Both of you have been reported.

Quoting 596. HardTimesHenry:

Why does everything have to be about AGW with some people!!!??? Sheesh!!


Record highs = GW
Record lows = GW
Less tropical activity = GW
More tropical activity = GW
Drought = GW
Floods = GW
Fires = GW
Etc
Etc
Etc

People are constantly trying to link every individual event to GW. That is just bad science.
Quoting 597. HardTimesHenry:

We don't know. Correct. Just like with with droughts increasing or flooding getting worse. There hasn't been any evidence of this happening....and we just don't know right now if these will increase in future years.


Well, not quite. We do know that there has been a global increase in floods and droughts. Such events leave behind "signatures" in the environment (tree rings, sedimentary deposits, etc.). By compiling all these observations, scientists can reconstruct historical climate and map how it has changed over time.

We also know that adding energy to a relatively stable system will destabilize it. By modeling the physics of such a system, scientists can observe the possible ways such a system will respond to such changes. This not only applies to climate models, but any physical model (like the ones used by nuclear physicists to model nuclear explosions). Modeling is a great way to conduct experiments when performing such experiments are impractical or impossible.

The current results on tropical cyclogenesis is that the number of storms will decrease, but what storms that do form will be more powerful. But this comes with larger error bars, as climate models are more concerned with large scale weather patterns. You can read about this in the IPCC.


Dust layer associated with the Saharan Air Layer. Photo taken from the NOAA G-IV northeast of Barbados during SALEX mission 20060916n. Cumulus clouds can be seen poking through the tops of the dust layer, which is seen as a milky white haze. Photo credit: Jason Dunion NOAA/HRD.
I see Lorenzo is trying to pull another Micheal.
comments skip from 607 to 609. a glitch?
T3.5 for Lorenzo according to SAB, and Raw numbers up to T3.9 (CI is 2.9)
Also, Lekima's ADT Raw numbers are T6.8, close to the CI6.7.
Quoting 618. lobdelse81:
comments skip from 607 to 609. a glitch?

Probably because comment 608 was deleted by the administrators.

OTOH,
Lorenzo might become a hurricane,today is the day to shine.
Quoting 618. lobdelse81:
comments skip from 607 to 609. a glitch?


inappropriate and offensive comment was removed.
623. SLU
Quoting 588. Tropicsweatherpr:
Lorenzo looks much better this morning.



Quoting 588. Tropicsweatherpr:
Lorenzo looks much better this morning.



T-numbers for Lorenzo are increasing. That "eye" looks well defined on microwave imagery. It may make a run for 55 - 60kts today before the shear incinerates it for good.
Quoting 618. lobdelse81:
comments skip from 607 to 609. a glitch?
something inappropriate about kim kardashian and her goodies.not a glitch but admin stepped in. NEwxguy has it right...............
625. SLU
The 11am advisory could be entertaining.


22/1145 UTC 29.6N 52.2W T3.5/3.5 LORENZO
22/0545 UTC 29.5N 53.2W T2.5/2.5 LORENZO
21/2345 UTC 29.3N 54.1W T2.0/2.0 LORENZO
it wont be long for the chinese to figure out they are being taken advantage of by multi-national businesses.
Quoting 618. lobdelse81:
comments skip from 607 to 609. a glitch?


I don't know but I think the topic got a little off topic.
Since October 1st for the Western Pacific!!
Quoting 615. Xyrus2000:


Well, not quite. We do know that there has been a global increase in floods and droughts. Such events leave behind "signatures" in the environment (tree rings, sedimentary deposits, etc.). By compiling all these observations, scientists can reconstruct historical climate and map how it has changed over time.

We also know that adding energy to a relatively stable system will destabilize it. By modeling the physics of such a system, scientists can observe the possible ways such a system will respond to such changes. This not only applies to climate models, but any physical model (like the ones used by nuclear physicists to model nuclear explosions). Modeling is a great way to conduct experiments when performing such experiments are impractical or impossible.

The current results on tropical cyclogenesis is that the number of storms will decrease, but what storms that do form will be more powerful. But this comes with larger error bars, as climate models are more concerned with large scale weather patterns. You can read about this in the IPCC.
but are floods worldwide really increasing???????????
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:30 PM RET October 22 2013
=====================================

Convective activity within this trough is very fluctuating and mainly concentrates south of this axis , down to 14.0S, from 75.0E to 90.0E. Within this aforementioned area of convective activity, last 0635 AM UTC oceansat-2 scatterometry swath shows a clockwise circulation approximately centered near 8.2S 80.0E.

Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa with maximum winds at about 20 knots in the northern semi-circle and 25 knots in the southern one, very locally up to 30 knots in relationship with the gradient with the subtropical high pressures. This low is only feed poleward by trade winds inflow but is located in a weak wind shear area under the axis of the upper level ridge.

Available numerical weather prediction models analyses this low and forecast it to track globally west southwestwards over the next days. On this track , the low is expected to keep on being under the upper level ridge and should significantly deepen after Friday.

Potential for development of a tropical depression until Thursday is poor but becomes moderate to fair on and after Friday
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM FST October 22 2013
======================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1002 hPa) located at 12.1S 169.1E is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface report observation. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Convection persistent in the last 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in the past 24 hours. System lies to the east of an approaching upper trough in a moderate sheared environment, moving towards high shear environment.

Global models have picked up the system and move it southward with little to no intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.

System #2
-----------

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1005 hPa) located at 9.0S 162.8E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Persistent convection near the system has reduced significantly in the past 24 hours. System remains disorganised and lies east of an approaching upper trough in a low sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system with no intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is VERY LOW

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON LEKIMA (T1328)
21:00 PM JST October 22 2013
=====================================

Minami torishima Waters

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Lekima (930 hPa) located at 17.1N 155.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
210 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.1N 150.0E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Minami torishima waters
48 HRS: 22.9N 146.2E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 28.2N 145.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
21:00 PM JST October 22 2013
=====================================

South Southeast of Minami Daito Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (945 hPa) located at 23.2N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
270 NM from the center in north quadrant
240 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 24.9N 130.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) south southwest of Minami Daito Island
48 HRS: 27.0N 131.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) north of Minami Daito Island
72 HRS: 30.6N 135.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Yes Lorenzo!! Pull a Michael! :D
Lorenzo...

I see the Atlantic is not bored with those high latitude trashes.
WELL glad to see local met changed the 7-day for tampa bay area..
Extremely BORING agin ://////

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NOW MOVING
WEST NEAR 20N. IT WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO HELP GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MONA PASSAGE TODAY WHILE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
BE PRIMARY REASON FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST PR
IN AFTERNOON. BUT DRY AIR IN THE 900-600 MB LAYER...AS SHOWN IN
THE 22Z TFFR SOUNDING...QUICKLY MOVING WEST IS CLEARLY OVERTAKING
THE EXISTING SHOWERS. IT FIRST WIPED OUT THOSE IN THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN EARLIER TONIGHT AND IS NOW CAUSING THEM TO DIMINISH ON
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AROUND PR. THE DRY AIR AND LESS
HIGHER CLOUDS IS REASON ENOUGH TO FORECAST SUFFICIENT HEATING OVER
WEST PR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...AND DECENT STEERING
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT TO A MINIMUM TODAY.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CAUSING SOME CONVECTION EAST OF TRINIDAD WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST BUT WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS WHEN IT
PASSES ON WED. AN EXPECTED TIGHT LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WILL
BE JUST SOUTH OF PR SO MOST ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
BE IN THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ANOTHER WAVE TO PASS OVER THE
ISLANDS LATE THU BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SO EXPECT TROPICAL
WAVES THIS WEEK TO BE LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND STEERING FLOW TO BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR DETERMINING CONVECTION.
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE OF NOTE HAS JUST LEFT AFRICAN COAST WHILE GFS
PUSHES IT JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI EARLY MON WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND.
some models have raymond indeed heading west but then coming back east.....
Hazy ://// I HATE THE WEATHER THAT FOLLOWS A WAVE... REALLY DEPRESSING TO SEE THAT HAZE.

Florida..Are you Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...DENSE FOG IMPACT...
LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A
MILE OR LESS IN A FEW SPOTS...AND MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW
DOWN AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY WEATHER WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Quoting 642. LargoFl:
Florida..Are you Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Ready for what temps we've already seen 60 to 65 at night with 83 to 85 during the day. Temps won't be as cool as the front won't clear the state. NWS in Tampa is very aggressive with the temps I see compared to everyone else.

Quoting 633. Halcyon19:
Yes Lorenzo!! Pull a Michael! :D



not even close
Some hefty weather on the way to FL this afternoon.

Quoting 582. GatorWX:
I'd take one for the team; or maybe not.
Not bad for a system in the North Central Atlantic. It seems the systems hate developing in the MDR this year. LOL

Quoting 628. SFLWeatherman:
Since October 1st for the Western Pacific!!


To be fair, Phalin was not the WPAC, it was the Indian.
Quoting 642. LargoFl:
Florida..Are you Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Glad I went home for the weekend to get some winter clothes.
Is anyone else having problems accessing the weather models on Weather.Gov today?
Happy Tuesday to wunderland'

Quoting 644. StormTrackerScott:


Ready for what temps we've already seen 60 to 65 at night with 83 to 85 during the day. Temps won't be as cool as the front won't clear the state. NWS in Tampa is very aggressive with the temps I see compared to everyone else.



You'll have to excuse us Florida natives, Scott. We get excited this time of year when the humidity drops below 90%.

Looking at NWS Melbourne, it seems to be in-line with Tampa's forecast. 50's are on their way! Woo hoo!
Lekima

Quoting 651. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Glad I went home for the weekend to get some winter clothes.


You won't need them anytime soon as temps on the eastern side of FL are going to struggle just to get below 70 as the wind will veer over to the ENE shortly after the front passes keeping temps on the east side of FL mild due to ocean temps in the 80's.
Quoting 654. fmbill:


You'll have to excuse us Florida natives, Scott. We get excited this time of year when the humidity drops below 90%.

Looking at NWS Melbourne, it seems to be in-line with Tampa's forecast. 50's are on their way! Woo hoo!


Not here. In The Villages over to Ocala maybe but not in orlando.

Raymond, RGB to Day Viz loop


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

WED-FRI...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
ON WED. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF/END FROM N-S DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE TREASURE
COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION FROM SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ON WED. RESPECTABLE...ALBEIT MODIFIED...COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA AS WINDS VEER PRETTY QUICKLY FROM NORTHERLY
WED NIGHT TO NE/ONSHORE BY THU AFTERNOON...AS THEY WEAKEN A TAD.
REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE MS VALLEY EAST AND SEWD INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SERN CONUS. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L80S WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE U50S/L60S NORTH OF I-4 TO M-U60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.
Fransisco, Rainbow Loop

Okinawa is the Island to the Northwest of it.

This current MJO wave propagation is probably the biggest one we have had all season.

Started in the Indian Ocean yielded Phailin and the WPAC and yielded Nari, Wipha, Francisco, and Lekima and is now making its way to the EPAC where currently we have Raymond and in the Atlantic where we have Lorenzo.

Quoting 657. StormTrackerScott:


Not here. In The Villages over to Ocala maybe but not in orlando.



NWS Forecast - OIA
Quoting 642. LargoFl:
Florida..Are you Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I'm ready.
Supposed to be low 80s (highs) and low 60s (lows) for my area (Fort Myers).
That is just about perfect weather. The humidity will also be low. You just can't beat it.

About 15 years ago, I moved to Ft Myers Fl at the end of Feb. For 33 days in a row the weather was beautiful(highs in the 70s lows in the 50s and sunny). I couldn't believe it. I had never lived anywhere where you could have 30 days in a row with perfect weather.

But on the other hand, you can have 30 days in a row with rain in the summer.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

NYZ008-221645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0010.131024T0500Z-131025T0300Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
445 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT AND MAINLY OVER THE TUG HILL AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 5 TO 9 INCHES IN
THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO EXACT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...WHICH
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE MADE BY RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR AN EARLY
SEASON SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND
POSSIBLY THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN MINOR TREE DAMAGE
AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO
Quoting 658. Patrap:
Raymond, RGB to Day Viz loop

I wonder if the models will verify and Raymond starts moving back west, it's almost a similar scenario here with Elena where the front outran the system.
Good Morning/Evening.

Fire over Aussie's way made it to NPR news this morning.

Hope folks in Okinawa have things bolted down tight.
Quoting 656. StormTrackerScott:


You won't need them anytime soon as temps on the eastern side of FL are going to struggle just to get below 70 as the wind will veer over to the ENE shortly after the front passes keeping temps on the east side of FL mild due to ocean temps in the 80's.
When it comes to cold weather damming in FL. it is usually under done. With the way the pattern has been all summer, the Jet has been amplified enough that this forecast from Tampa for cold weather seems reasonable.
Lake Effect Snow is a cool phenomenon. You can get 20" of snow at one place and 15 miles away the sun is out with no snow.
Possibly...? Nah...

Forecast for Daytona Beach:

# Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 56. North wind around 10 mph.
# Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. North northeast wind around 10 mph.
# Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming north northwest after midnight.
Quoting 666. biff4ugo:
Good Morning/Evening.

Fire over Aussie's way made it to NPR news this morning.

Hope folks in Okinawa have things bolted down tight.


Was stationed there a year,Sept 82-83.

They very Typhoon savvy folks the Okinawan's.


US Military installations on Okinawa.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

...LORENZO A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 52.0W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST. LORENZO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...
BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Quoting 667. GTstormChaserCaleb:
When it comes to cold weather damming in FL. it is usually under done. With the way the pattern has been all summer, the Jet has been amplified enough that this forecast from Tampa for cold weather seems reasonable.


Should make a pretty significant difference on temperature based on how far inland and how far north you're located across the state.

Tampa can get very cold in the winter. I remember a day a couple years ago where Tampa struggled to get up in the low 50s for highs with lows in the upper 20s/low 30s.
I was racing at BMP that morning and I about froze my buns off (everything covered in frost until about 9am).
Quoting 671. Patrap:


Was stationed there a year,Sept 82-83.

They very Typhoon savvy folks the Okinawan's.


US Military installations on Okinawa.



Any civilians live there?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013


GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES
OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. IF THAT VERIFIES, IT WILL BE THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1980 THAT DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO DID NOT PICK UP
ANY RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
Is the heat really still going on at Yoboi's blog?
7 day forecast for Fort Myers Fl.
Expected cold front only bringing highs in the low 80s.
s the heat really still going on at Yoboi's blog?+++





stirring the pot or you just don't know how to navigate to his page?
Lekima is more than likely a category 5 right now.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
GFS 6Z lol I MISSED THAT LONG RANGE ENTERTAINMENT!!!! XD XD

312H


348H


360HR


372HR


384HR


I WOULD LOOOOOOOOOOVE ANOTHER WRONG WAY STORM (Omar, Lenny, Klaus..)

Here is Hurricane Klaus (5-13Nov 1984)



LOL .. no need to present OMAR and LENNY...


Typhoon 28W LEKIMA

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2013 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 17:34:57 N Lon : 154:39:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 921.5mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees


Lekima looks almost annular.