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Category 3 Hurricane Nicole Pounding Bermuda

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 2:03 PM GMT on October 13, 2016

Category 3 Hurricane Nicole is pounding Bermuda after putting on an impressive round of rapid intensification that saw the hurricane top out as a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds early Thursday morning. At 10 am EDT (11 am ADT) Thursday, satellite imagery and radar from the Bermuda Weather Service showed that the western edge of Nicole’s large roughly 40-mile diameter eye was poised to move over the eastern end of the island by 11 am EDT. The northern eyewall of Nicole is the strongest part of the storm, and Bermuda began taking a wicked pounding from this powerful northern eyewall beginning around 9 am EDT. The Bermuda airport is located on the east end of the island, and at 9:55 am EDT measured sustained winds of 77 mph (10-minute average), gusting to 104 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in Nicole, and at 9:30 am EDT found top surface winds in the northern eyewall of 102 mph. The plane did not sample the most intense part of the northern eyewall, though, and Bermuda is likely to experience higher winds than that. High wind shear is attacking Nicole and will weaken the storm today, but probably too late to provide much relief to Bermuda.


Figure 1. Hurricane Nicole as seen by the Bermuda radar at 9:44 am EDT October 13, 2016, when the northern eyewall was battering the island. Bermuda (under the white cross) was about to enter the eye. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Wind and storm surge damage the main threats
The main threat from Nicole is wind damage, as the island has rarely experienced the winds from a Category 3 hurricane. Storm surge is also a concern, as Nicole is expected to drive a storm surge of 6 - 8 feet to Bermuda. Fortunately, this surge will be arriving as the tide is going out. High tide was at 6:36 am (ADT) this morning, and low tide will be at 12:48 pm (ADT) this afternoon. The difference between low tide and high tide is about three feet, so the island would have had about an extra two feet of inundation had Nicole hit at high tide. See the Bermuda Esso Pier, St. Georges, Bermuda Tide Chart (thanks to WU member SPShaw for this link.)

Another missed rapid intensity forecast
Nicole put on its rapid intensification burst as it passed over the near-record-warm waters of the subtropical North Atlantic, with sea-surface temperatures of 29°C (84°F)— roughly 2°C above average. Given the warm waters and light wind shear the storm had, rapid intensification was not a big surprise, but Nicole’s rapid intensification from a tropical storm on Tuesday morning to a Category 4 hurricane Wednesday night was not anticipated by our top three intensity models—the HWRF, SHIPS and LGEM. The Tuesday morning runs of these models all predicted that Nicole would be a Category 1 hurricane at the time of its closest approach to Bermuda on Thursday morning. NHC did go higher in their Tuesday morning intensity forecast, calling for Nicole to be a Category 2 storm by Thursday morning, but their intensity forecast fell far short of predicting the actual rapid intensification that occurred. A similar situation occurred for Hurricane’s Matthew’s rapid intensification from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean, which was poorly forecasted by the intensity models and NHC. Hurricane intensity forecasting still has a long ways to go, unfortunately.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nicole taken at 11:30 am EDT October 13, 2016. At the time, Nicole had just hit Bermuda as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A rarity for Bermuda
It’s not every day that Bermuda sees a hurricane, and it’s even more uncommon for a major hurricane to target the island directly. In a local survey going back to 1609, the Bermuda Weather Service found that tropical cyclone damage was recorded about once every 6 to 7 years. From 1900 to 2007, the only direct hits cited by the agency were the Havana-Bermuda Hurricane of 1926, the Miami Hurricane of 1948, and Hurricane Arlene (1963). Of course, a hurricane can cause havoc while passing just west or east of the island as well. According to Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), only one Category 4 hurricane is known to have tracked within 50 miles of Bermuda in records going back to 1851: Hurricane 5, on October 16, 1939. Nicole will fall just short of reaching that milestone, at least in the initial analysis, as it was downgraded from Category 4 to Category 3 at 7:00 am EDT Thursday while located about 55 miles southwest of Bermuda.

In the big picture of Atlantic hurricane seasons, Nicole is also a standout. It follows Hurricane Matthew, which attained Category 5 strength on October 1. Never before has the Atlantic recorded two storms of at least Category 4 strength in October, according to Klotzbach (again, in records going back to 1851). Nicole attained its Category 4 strength at 30.1°N, making it the latest Atlantic storm in the season to exhibit Category 4 strength that far north since Hazel (1954), which was a Cat 4 at 30.2°N.

Keep an eye on the Southwest Caribbean next week
A broad area low pressure is expected to form in the waters of the Southwest Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua early next week. The computer models have been very inconsistent in their predictions on the potential timing and location of any tropical storm development that may occur in this region, but we will have to keep an eye on it.

Links
Bermuda radar.
Live Blog from BRE News (thanks to WU member DevilsIsles for this link.)
Live Stream from BER News in Bermuda (thanks to WU member Sfloridacat5 for posting this link in the blog comments.)


Figure 3. This image from the 06Z Thursday run of the GFS model shows winds exceeding 52 mph (60 mph) approaching the western Washington coast late Saturday in association with a 963 millibar low that forms from the remnants of Typhoon Songda. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Pacific Northwest bracing for the remnants of Typhoon Songda
Another high-latitude anomaly of the tropical type will make its presence felt in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and far southwest Canada this weekend. Typhoon Songda reached its peak intensity on Tuesday at an unusually far northerly latitude: 30.3°N in the Northwest Pacific, where it briefly became a super typhoon with top sustained winds of 150 mph. No longer classified as a tropical cyclone, Songda remained a powerful storm in the North Pacific on Thursday morning, whipping eastward through the North Pacific near the International Date Line just north of 40°N with a central pressure of 996 millibars. Songda will be incorporated in a train of storms heading into the Pacific Northwest, and models agree that it will deepen at least into the 960 - 970 mb range as it approaches the Olympic Peninsula of Washington (or perhaps a bit further south, if the ECMWF model proves correct]. This is a classic set-up for very heavy rain and damaging winds across western Oregon and Washington, including the Seattle area. High wind warnings are already in effect from tonight to Friday for western Oregon and Washington, where gusts may reach 75 mph along the Oregon coast, 60 mph along the Washington coast, and 55 mph in the Seattle area. Even stronger winds are liable to materialize late Saturday and/or Sunday as the remnants of Songda approach. We’ll have more details on this potential major event on Friday.

We'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

9:58 am ET radar (100 km) shows part of Bermuda in the eye of Nicole.
Thanks doks!
Links to any chasers in Bermuda?
Thanks for the update!


Eye moving over Bermuda right now. Source for updates.
Quoting 1. Sfloridacat5:

9:58 am ET radar (100 km) shows part of Bermuda in the eye of Nicole.

Indeed!

15L/MH/N/C3
TWC "specialist" just said that Bermuda "bypassed the northern eyewall."

What? That's the third thing they've said this morning that is completely wrong about Hurricane Nicole.


Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:

TWC "specialist" just said that Bermuda "bypassed the northern eyewall."

What? That's the third thing they've said this morning that is completely wrong about Hurricane Nicole.




Is this not the eyewall????
I have found the location of the second stream. It's NE of the Airport



And it's gone down and the eye is oh so close to.

The intensity misses by models and nhc on Nicole and Matthew are concerning for future storms. It shows me that some old timers willing to 'ride out' a Cat 2 or below, may need to rethink their future plans.
Australia has experienced its second wettest September ever with the Murray-Darling catchment breaking a 110-year rainfall record.

Last month’s nationwide heavy rain followed an unusually wet winter, with the May-September period Australia’s rainiest on record.
It was also the second wettest September for Victoria, third wettest for Queensland and fourth wettest for South Australia.
The BOM says abnormally warm waters in the Indian Ocean between Western Australia and Indonesia significantly contributed to the high amount of rainfall.


Link
Quoting 9. IDTH:





Looks like the center of the eye will pass to the east of the island. So no landfall, even though the eye is large enough that the entire island will be within it.
Quoting 11. AussieStorm:

I have found the location of the second stream. It's NE of the Airport



And it's gone down and the eye is oh so close to.




Yes that is St.Davids gas station, and the dock is St.Davids public Dock
Quoting 10. AussieStorm:



Is this not the eyewall????

yes it is its nnw semi circle and will spin off to the right down the western south western semi circle but its filling in and overall eye has deteriorated significantly since after dawn
We are in the EYE right now, just went outside for a walk around!
must of lost power I bet feed is still down
Quoting 12. MonsterTrough:

The intensity misses by models and nhc on Nicole and Matthew are concerning for future storms. It shows me that some old timers willing to 'ride out' a Cat 2 or below, may need to rethink their future plans.



This should not be a surprise. It has always been acknowledged that the models are much better at predicting direction of a storm than they are at predicting intensity. And, quite honestly, riding out any type of hurricane in a place that can and will experience hurricane-like conditions is not exactly a wise choice!
Four Thousand Mile Long River of Moisture Could Dump 2 Feet of Rain on The Pacific Northwest

As the U.S. East Coast is still reeling from impacts associated with Hurricane Matthew, the Pacific Northwest is just now confronting its own potential extreme climate event. For a 4,000 mile long river of moisture streaming off ex super typhoon Songda in the Pacific Ocean is now firing a barrage of storms at Northern California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. A series of storms that could, over the next five days, dump as much as two feet of rainfall over parts of this region.

Link
BELCO: As of 11am, we have 49 circuits out which is 20,855. There will more than likely be more given small isolated outage that are not at the circuit level, as well as continued high winds as we go through the afternoon.
I am a long-time lurker and don't post much. That being said, I am grateful to everything the seasoned members of this blog (And Dr. Masters) post every year for extreme weather events. Since I live in South Florida, those posts are extremely important to me during hurricane season. We dodged a bullet with Matthew (phew). Prayers for everyone affected by these storms now and the rest of the season!
Quoting 17. DevilsIsles:

We are in the EYE right now, just went outside for a walk around!


Oh, wow. Somehow I wish I could join you for some minutes ... Hope the other part of the eyewall won't be that bad as the northern part has been.


Current radar (saved).
Quoting 23. barbamz:


Oh, wow. Somehow I wish I could join you for some minutes ... Hope the other part of the eyewall won't be that bad as the northern part has been.
Current radar (saved).
the backside is always the kicker front side loosens everything up the backside blows it all away
Quoting 20. RobertWC:

Four Thousand Mile Long River of Moisture Could Dump 2 Feet of Rain on The Pacific Northwest

As the U.S. East Coast is still reeling from impacts associated with Hurricane Matthew, the Pacific Northwest is just now confronting its own potential extreme climate event. For a 4,000 mile long river of moisture streaming off ex super typhoon Songda in the Pacific Ocean is now firing a barrage of storms at Northern California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. A series of storms that could, over the next five days, dump as much as two feet of rainfall over parts of this region.

Link


Extreme 'climate event' or 'extreme weather' event? Seems to be the later by definition.
Quoting 25. StormHype:



Extreme 'climate event' or 'extreme weather' event? Seems to be the later by definition.
climatic shift
Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

must of lost power I bet feed is still down


That webcam fooled me. It was live in the eyewall with just crazy weather. It goes down and I think it comes back up and it is in the eye except the tape is rerunning from 2 hours before. Hope it comes back on.
Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:

TWC "specialist" just said that Bermuda "bypassed the northern eyewall."

What? That's the third thing they've said this morning that is completely wrong about Hurricane Nicole.




Indeed, the tilting of the storm as per seen on satellite imagery/ IR IS DEFINITELY DECEIVING vrs what's actually going on on the ground, and is also being credibly reflected on local Radar.

Hope Bermudians have fared well thus far...Keep safe.

Remembering to lift the entire island nation in constant Prayer...

God Bless!
Two videos from the calm eye and one from the eyewall of Nicole. Click the pic.twitter.com links to watch them.










He's got a point:

30. vis0
IMPORTANT THIS LINK (https://archive.org/details/TSLisaULLToTSNicole) IS TO A VID WHOSE LAST FRAME IS FROM 2 DAYS AGO.
 
DO NOT USE THIS OF ANY OF MY COMMENTS as a forecast.
 
NICOLE is OVER BERMUDA at the moment i hope all affected listened to official reports and are
 
 
 
My apology to those waiting for this  VID couldn't upload at 3 other VID hosting sites, not embedding it as not to confuse since moving images tends to catch ones attention more than words thus take attention away from more important alerts.


Prayers that those affected by storm(s) maintain a cool mind.   

PLEASE THINK,  even after the storm there is flooding. 

Never cross water covering any area as area underneath could has cracks, holes or be entirely gone and what you see is a pond and cannot tell that where there was a road or ground is now  feet(s) of water.
Quoting 17. DevilsIsles:

We are in the EYE right now, just went outside for a walk around!


Yay, that's awesome. I was in the eye of a hurricane in Bermuda too back in '87. (last blog, you already saw it) I remember I saw a couple of water spouts out in the Great Sound (I lived in the Navel Annex). Not something you see every day, stay safe!

Complete Bermuda in the eye of Nicole, although in its northwestern part, and from the west the eyewall is already closing in: Link
Quoting 29. barbamz:

Two videos from the calm eye and one from the eyewall of Nicole. Click the pic.twitter.com links to watch them.




Seeing those videos gives some strong hope for Bermuda. The trees don't appear to have been denuded, and the roofs that I can see are still on the houses. These are both strong indications that the winds, while fierce, are not terrible / catastrophic. Backside yet to come, but here's to hoping for the safety of all touched.
...EYE OF NICOLE PASSING OVER BERMUDA...
11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 13
Location: 32.3°N 64.6°W
Moving: NE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 961 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

Quoting 33. watercayman:


Seeing those videos gives some strong hope for Bermuda. The trees don't appear to have been denuded, and the roofs that I can see are still on the houses. These are both strong indications that the winds, while fierce, are not terrible / catastrophic. Backside yet to come, but here's to hoping for the safety of all touched.

Here some minor tree damage (but this isn't the whole picture for sure):




In the Eye

This is bad enough! (11 am update discussion) ...glad Nicole has weakened some before making the closest pass at Bermuda. What a month it has been so far...
"The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not yet sampled the
eastern portion of the eyewall where the strongest winds were
reported overnight, however, they have reported a minimum pressure
961 mb, which is up several millibars since the previous fix. Based
on the most recent aircraft data and satellite intensity estimates,
the initial wind speed has been set at 105 kt for this advisory.
Although the area of strongest winds in the eastern eyewall are
expected to remain offshore of Bermuda, sustained hurricane-force
winds have been reported on the island during the past couple of
hours. The official observing site at the airport has measured
sustained winds of 67 kt with a gust to 90 kt within the past hour."
Quoting 26. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

climatic shift

Of course.
(ignoreshypes)
Nicole has made her own path and has now proven to be more than just Matthew's shadow.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 3m3 minutes ago
#Bermuda is a tiny speck in the Atlantic Ocean. Amazingly, #Nicole is the 3rd #hurricane pass over the island in as many years!
Modeling and forecasting these kinds of storms must be revised to reflect the warming of the oceans and the destruction we've caused to our atmosphere.

It's absurd to think that humans haven't had a hand in both of those things. We affect everything around us. However, many Americans don't understand exponents, and can't fathom what eight billion current human inhabitants of Earth and the billions that have come before us have done to our surroundings.

Climate change has always happened, but we are exacerbating the current cycle. To believe otherwise is akin to still believing we live on a flat planet.
Quoting 25. StormHype:



Extreme 'climate event' or 'extreme weather' event? Seems to be the later by definition.


Well underlying the 'extreme weather' event, is the Extreme 'climate event', which is why Australia just had the wettest winter on the books -

The BOM says abnormally warm waters in the Indian Ocean between Western Australia and Indonesia significantly contributed to the high amount of rainfall.

Conditions in the Context of Climate Change — Here We Go Again

Over the past year, a record hot atmosphere has helped to generate extreme moisture levels aloft. Such record to near record moisture levels have helped to produce 500 to 1,000 year flood events in places like Louisiana, Texas, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia and in other parts of the US and around the world. This week, record high moisture levels contributed to flooding rains falling over Virginia and North Carolina in association with Hurricane Matthew. Now, a similar extreme moisture pattern is taking aim at the Pacific Northwest.
Jonathan Erdman 7 minutes ago:
Saving this @NHC_Atlantic image for posterity. #Bermuda the "double bullseye" on the #hurricane dartboard today. #Nicole
Am i right in assuming that the remnants of Songda is the big blob just south of the Aleutian Island Chain in this satellite image?

Quoting 44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Quoting 45. SPShaw:

Am i right in assuming that the remnants of Songda is the big blob just south of the Aleutian Island Chain in this satellite image?




Quoting 44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




From deep in space the eye stands out, and have people in that lil eye on the surface of the earth, on an island, in the middle of nowhere, in the middle of the ocean. And have pics and video live from people there.

UNBELIEVABLE WORLD
Quoting 25. StormHype:



Extreme 'climate event' or 'extreme weather' event? Seems to be the later by definition.


I think Mother Nature is hot and pissed, and we all need need 24" rain gauges that will either be overflowing, or way too dry for way too long. And this is just a taste of what we're leaving to our children.
The real Sharknado: how sharks deal with extreme weather
It doesn’t involve flying killer sharks, but research into how sharks sense pressure during tropical storms and other weather events is still fascinating
The Guardian, Thursday 13 October 2016 08.00 BST
Love them or hate them, the Sharknado films have been a hugely successful franchise (in fact, the fourth Sharknado film yes that’s right, the fourth, aired on the Syfy channel at the end of July). I couldn’t possibly comment on their value as films, but as a shark scientist I can say that they inspire in me a feeling of regret that I failed to coin the word ‘sharknado’. Because in fact, a good few years before the first Sharknado hit our screens in 2013, I was investigating how sharks responded to extreme weather events as part of my PhD. ...
More see link above.




Zimbabwe: Mystery 'Cyclone' Invader a Growing Headache for Zimbabwe
Thomson Reuters Foundation (London), 5 OCTOBER 2016
Stella Mwareya cannot hide her frustration as she struggles, in vain, to clear a fast-growing light green shrub that is taking over her farmland.
"There is no way to stop this plant," Mwareya dejectedly told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. "It grows so fast and its seeds are very light and spread far and wide. It will soon take over everything."
Mwareya, who lives in Rusitu Valley, in eastern Zimbabwe's Chimanimani district, blames the invasion on seeds brought by devastating tropical Cyclone Eline, which hit the country in 2000.
The feathery weed - dubbed "cyclone" by local people - has been a particular problem for farmers, commercial timber plantations and a nature reserve in eastern Zimbabwe over the past five years. ...

More of the story see link above.
Quoting 48. Skyepony:


looks almost like rapid dissipation compared to just before dawn with a perfect cat 4 eye
Quoting 49. gunhilda:



I think Mother Nature is hot and pissed, and we all need need 24" rain gauges that will either be overflowing, or way too dry for way too long. And this is just a taste of what we're leaving to our children.


You do realize that "extreme" weather events have been happening since the beginning of time right? No reason to guilt trip folks into thinking we are somehow ruining things for our children.

Weather event or climate event? Does it matter? Climate is part of the weather. Weather events happen man, no reason to buy into the media hype and try to sensationalize some narrative.
I put up a blog with photos (copied from previous blog, so's not to clutter screen during Nicole's wrath.) Good luck islanders!
Quoting 41. PPUGrad04:

Modeling and forecasting these kinds of storms must be revised to reflect the warming of the oceans and the destruction we've caused to our atmosphere. [...]


It would sound incredible, if the modelling wouldn't already take those factors into effect. Take for example GFS, run over a period of 16 days. In that timeframe, failing to account for increased CO2 would cause the model to overestimate the heat escaping into space by about 5 MJ/m². Equivalent in ocean areas to uppermost 100 meters of water cooling by 0.01 deg C, but in land areas, equivalent to the entire atmosphere cooling by 0.5 deg C. The errors would be enormous, especially in atmospheric dynamics near coastlines.

Quoting 42. RobertWC:



Well underlying the 'extreme weather' event, is the Extreme 'climate event', which is why Australia just had the wettest winter on the books -

The BOM says abnormally warm waters in the Indian Ocean between Western Australia and Indonesia significantly contributed to the high amount of rainfall. [...]


I read the latest Special Climate Statement, and it shows record precipitation and record cold temperatures in eastern Eyre Basin and much of Murray-Darling basin. If the connection between September conditions in those areas and Indian Ocean SST's is correct, actually it could mean that arid areas in Australia are becoming more hospitable to human life due to climate change.
Quoting 48. Skyepony:




Watching the live feed (until it went down) it was pretty crazy there.
Thanks Keeper! ...a picture IS indeed worth a thousand words. ;)
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Quoting 50. Grothar:




"Looks normal and typical to me." Your Average Climate Change Denier
I'll just leave this right here:

Columbus Day Storm

"actually it could mean that arid areas in Australia are becoming more hospitable to human life due to climate change." elieo

You probably think that's good. I don't. Less people=less destruction of our planet and unnecessary use of resources.

This is coming from a non-breeder though.
Quoting 49. gunhilda:



I think Mother Nature is hot and pissed, and we all need need 24" rain gauges that will either be overflowing, or way too dry for way too long. And this is just a taste of what we're leaving to our children.
This is just what Yankees440 has been saying too
Quoting 45. SPShaw:

Am i right in assuming that the remnants of Songda is the big blob just south of the Aleutian Island Chain in this satellite image?




Pretty sure Songda is still out of frame on that one.
its spinning down fast

Quoting 53. SouthMississippi:



You do realize that "extreme" weather events have been happening since the beginning of time right? No reason to guilt trip folks into thinking we are somehow ruining things for our children.

Weather event or climate event? Does it matter? Climate is part of the weather. Weather events happen man, no reason to buy into the media hype and try to sensationalize some narrative.
People have been getting cancer since the beginning of time. Therefore, cigarettes are harmless.

Wow. Solid logic, that...

Bermuda radar 10 minutes ago (saved). Western eyewall is close now. Good luck!
Quoting 64. Neapolitan:

People have been getting cancer since the beginning of time. Therefore, cigarettes are harmless.

Wow. Solid logic, that...
cancer is a new disease from the late 50's onward another of mankind's added effects
Let me troll. Tropical weather was manipulated all season as each system approached the US coasts. The result is the extreme drought situation setting up in the southeastern tier. Possilility for western style fires in the southeast in coming weeks. No significant windstorm has hit the US coast for a decade.
Quoting 61. Llamaluvr:

This is just what Yankees440 has been saying too


I have? I don't remember commenting on this??
Quoting 53. SouthMississippi:



You do realize that "extreme" weather events have been happening since the beginning of time right?

No, really? Thanks for informing me of that. I'll pay more attention in the future if you will.








Quoting 41. PPUGrad04:

Modeling and forecasting these kinds of storms must be revised to reflect the warming of the oceans and the destruction we've caused to our atmosphere.

It's absurd to think that humans haven't had a hand in both of those things. We affect everything around us. However, many Americans don't understand exponents, and can't fathom what eight billion current human inhabitants of Earth and the billions that have come before us have done to our surroundings.

Climate change has always happened, but we are exacerbating the current cycle. To believe otherwise is akin to still believing we live on a flat planet.
World doesn t have 8 billion people yet, according to worldometers we have yet to pass the magical 7.5 billion benchmark. The most populous is China with almost 1.4 billion people, India is only about 50 millions behind though.
Weather should be getting a little "frisky" here in the northern Sierra Nevada the next few days.

================================================= =====
High Wind Warning
Issued: 3:55 AM PDT Oct. 13, 2016 – National Weather Service


... High Wind Warning remains in effect from 8 PM this evening to
11 am PDT Friday...

* timing: winds will increase this afternoon and persist through
Friday. A second wave of strong and potentially damaging winds
is likely Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

* Winds: southwest 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Sierra
ridge gusts up to 125 mph.

* Lake Tahoe wave heights: 3 to 6 feet.


* Impacts: damage to trees... power lines... and property is
possible. Winds will result in severe turbulence for
aircraft flying through the region. Small boats... kayaks and
paddle boards should stay off Lake Tahoe.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Now is the time to secure loose outdoor items such as patio
furniture... Holiday decorations... and trash cans before winds
increase which could blow these items away. The best thing to do
is prepare ahead of time by making sure you have extra food and
water on hand... flashlights with spare batteries and/or candles
in the event of a power outage.
Quoting 17. DevilsIsles:

We are in the EYE right now, just went outside for a walk around!

Have yours ears popped.?...:)
Quoting 64. Neapolitan:

People have been getting cancer since the beginning of time. Therefore, cigarettes are harmless.

Wow. Solid logic, that...
Lol...Maybe if eat cancer i wont ever get it....HHHAAAAA.???!!!!!
Quoting 66. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

cancer is a new disease from the late 50's onward another of mankind's added effects

Not new, but sort of a pandemic due to longer life expectation and increasing pollution.
its just sarcasm calm down by
I was happy tracking Nicole
maybe we should return to that
seems this conversation
is getting a little out of hand now
Quoting 66. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

cancer is a new disease from the late 50's onward another of mankind's added effects
Greetings Keep...The average human has some type of cancer 5 times in there life. A healthy immune system simply disposes of it...
Quoting 64. Neapolitan:

People have been getting cancer since the beginning of time. Therefore, cigarettes are harmless.

Wow. Solid logic, that...


Then why relate every instance of severe weather into the narrative?

It's warmer than usual: Global Warming
It's a colder than usual year: O that proves climate change as well.
Hurricane: Human's are destroying the earth and causing it to happen
Wildfire's in California: Even more proof that we need to impound our SUV's
Floods in Texas: More legislation needed to combat "climate change"

It just really gets old. Can we not just enjoy being weather geeks without having to sort through the garbage?
Quoting 51. barbamz:

Zimbabwe: Mystery 'Cyclone' Invader a Growing Headache for Zimbabwe
... Mwareya, who lives in eastern Zimbabwe's Chimanimani district, blames the invasion on seeds brought by devastating tropical Cyclone Eline, which hit the country in 2000.
...



We need to be careful with quoting local rumours:
"This species appears to have been introduced as a nectar plant for bees, possibly in the early 1990's in areas around Sussundenga, Mozambique. It has since become a serious invader of disturbed areas at lower altitudes around parts of the border mountains of Zimbabwe and Mozambique." Link

Looks like Nicole's southern part is quite dry.
Quoting 62. JFWellsPDX:



Pretty sure Songda is still out of frame on that one.

No; Keeper posted a wider view and that's Songda just south of the Aleutian Islands. That thing zipped across the Pacific in just two days time. :)
Quoting 78. SouthMississippi:



Then why relate every instance of severe weather into the narrative?

It's warmer than usual: Global Warming
It's a colder than usual year: O that proves climate change as well.
Hurricane: Human's are destroying the earth and causing it to happen
Wildfire's in California: Even more proof that we need to impound our SUV's
Floods in Texas: More legislation needed to combat "climate change"

It just really gets old. Can we not just enjoy being weather geeks without having to sort through the garbage?

Brutal experience, and after I put up a lot of resistance against it, I decided in 2008 that no, we cannot. I used to be such a 'weather geek' until I gradually found out that even discussing some extreme without taking climate change into account would attract climate revisionist trolls per the fossil fuel lobby - of which I actually knew nothing back then simply because I did not want my interest marred by politics. So, climate revisionism gained an enemy. Camouflaged, hard to tell who I am exactly of course (let's keep it that way, shall we, I'm open enough as is), but a fairly considerable enemy.
Quoting 50. Grothar:




Yeah, we're in for a long couple of days. This is going to take all sorts of shapes over the next 72ish hours. Really is a classic setup.

74. sigh
3:57 PM GMT on October 13, 2016


Ignorant..?

A hundred years ago, less then 1 in 100 people died of cancer. Today in modern countries, 1 in 3 will be diagnosed with cancer, and 1 in 4 will die, many cases traced to to terrain and environmental conditions.
Quoting 79. EmsiNasklug:

We need to be careful with quoting local rumours:
"This species appears to have been introduced as a nectar plant for bees, possibly in the early 1990's in areas around Sussundenga, Mozambique. It has since become a serious invader of disturbed areas at lower altitudes around parts of the border mountains of Zimbabwe and Mozambique." Link

Sure, thanks. The whole article I've posted is much more balanced on the issue than its introduction, but doesn't exclude some impact of the cyclone:
... Bart Wursten, a leading Zimbabwe plant expert, said it was possible Cyclone Eline has spread the seeds of eastern Zimbabwe's scourge across the mountains from Mozambique.
But he said he believed the main reason for its rapid spread in Chimanimani was that formerly well-tended farms had become neglected or abandoned after the country's chaotic land reform programme that began in 2000.
"This of course happened at the exact same time, in 2000, as the cyclone," he said. ...
Quoting 53. SouthMississippi:



You do realize that "extreme" weather events have been happening since the beginning of time right? No reason to guilt trip folks into thinking we are somehow ruining things for our children.

Weather event or climate event? Does it matter? Climate is part of the weather. Weather events happen man, no reason to buy into the media hype and try to sensationalize some narrative.

Yeah, Barrier Reef always dies. Always!
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





That was an incredibly fast moving system. Wow, some jet.
Should start the winter westerlies over the Atlantic in another week or so.
Quoting 72. hydrus:

Have yours ears popped.?...:)


No but I got a headache!
Quoting 87. cRRKampen:

That was an incredibly fast moving system. Wow, some jet.
Should start the winter westerlies over the Atlantic in another week or so.

I hope so!
Rhine river's low water levels causing ships to run aground
The Local, Published: 13 Oct 2016 14:50 GMT 02:00
Getting it head on out of the North 90kts and lost my wind indicator! now! Nicole! is absolutely roaring!!!!

Quoting 66. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

cancer is a new disease from the late 50's onward another of mankind's added effects

Ummm, they've found dinosaur bones with cancer....
Quoting 84. hydrus:

74. sigh
3:57 PM GMT on October 13, 2016


Ignorant..?

A hundred years ago, less then 1 in 100 people died of cancer. Today in modern countries, 1 in 3 will be diagnosed with cancer, and 1 in 4 will die, many cases traced to to terrain and environmental conditions.


Also a lot of people didn't live long enough to get cancer...
Nicole has literally detoured around bermuda. anyone got the link to the site where you can create and store a gif of the track?
Quoting 91. opal92nwf:


Ummm, they've found dinosaur bones with cancer....

There was a crack-down on smoking in the Third Reich, because the connection with lung cancers and some other diseases was clear in the medical world back then. Since this was German, in part Nazi-German research resulting in a policy, it was effectively dismissed globally by 1945 for the usual sentimental reasons.
Interesting about Ex-Songda's possible impacts on Saturday and the differences between GFS and ECMWF:
First of pair of strong windstorms poised to strike tonight
by Scott Sistek, Thursday, October 13th 2016

And it's already starting:
Areas of Western Washington reporting power outages ahead of major storm
By MyNorthwest.com, Staff report | October 13, 2016 @ 9:20 am
Quoting 92. VAbeachhurricanes:



Also a lot of people didn't live long enough to get cancer...

Plants get it.
Even some particularly long lived insects are known to develop it, also some forms can be started in them e.g. by specific tissue damage.
Quoting 91. opal92nwf:


Ummm, they've found dinosaur bones with cancer....


I think he's forgetting the fact that up until the 20th century, medicine had not advanced enough to property diagnose all the instances of cancer in humans. That might throw the numbers off a bit.
Quoting 89. barbamz:


I hope so!
Rhine river's low water levels causing ships to run aground
The Local, Published: 13 Oct 2016 14:50 GMT 02:00

Oh, great. Last time the Rhine went record low in autumn we got deluge by December resulting in almost calamity in the Netherlands, https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wateroverlast_in_Ne d erland_van_januari_2012 . Nothing 'millenium' though...
Just lost the Bermuda radar in the Western eye wall.
Quoting 92. VAbeachhurricanes:



Also a lot of people didn't live long enough to get cancer...
Humans die of cancer before they mature all the time.
Quoting 93. StanburyCharlie:

Nicole has literally detoured around bermuda. anyone got the link to the site where you can create and store a gif of the track?


Around! I walked in the eye for an hour!
Quoting 88. DevilsIsles:



No but I got a headache!
Maybe because your ears didnt pop...:)
103. OKsky
Quoting 78. SouthMississippi:



Then why relate every instance of severe weather into the narrative?

It's warmer than usual: Global Warming
It's a colder than usual year: O that proves climate change as well.
Hurricane: Human's are destroying the earth and causing it to happen
Wildfire's in California: Even more proof that we need to impound our SUV's
Floods in Texas: More legislation needed to combat "climate change"

It just really gets old. Can we not just enjoy being weather geeks without having to sort through the garbage?


Serious question... how do you consider yourself a "weather geek" if you don't like climate science?

If in all your "weather geekery" you know of a better model to explain the current rapid heating of our planet rather than CO2 emissions or, even more unlikely, if you have evidence that the earth isn't currently rapidly heating...then please by all means post your sources for it.... if you lack that then accept that all weather is a part of the "climate narrative" and that your opinion makes no difference.
A video from tweeter showing very intense rain & winds in Bermuda (Elbow Beach area).
Quoting 86. cRRKampen:


Yeah, Barrier Reef always dies. Always!
yes it does the planet has been changing forever. did u know florida was once under an ocean. also ice covered most of the usa back in the day. one thing u can count on is change. trying to stop the change is not natural,
Quoting 99. SouthMississippi:

Just lost the Bermuda radar in the Western eye wall.


From BER News: "BWS: Bad news… with the NW winds a huge gust bust open a hatch on the weather radar and it is hanging loose. It has a fail switch attached to it which renders the radar out of service until it is physically shut. As it is too dangerous to go out in these conditions the weather radar will remain out of service until the technician can get out to it safely."
107. wpb
radar web cam down

Quoting 84. hydrus:

74. sigh
3:57 PM GMT on October 13, 2016


Ignorant..?

A hundred years ago, less then 1 in 100 people died of cancer. Today in modern countries, 1 in 3 will be diagnosed with cancer, and 1 in 4 will die, many cases traced to to terrain and environmental conditions.


That's because they were dying from the flu, polio, malaria, measles, smallpox, rabies, malnutrition, and any number of other causes that have been greatly reduced or eliminated. Cancer has always been around, it just has a lot less competition from other diseases these days...
Wow at some of the videos from Nicole's impacts on Bermuda... Very high winds. Hope they make it out ok!
111. wpb
1:15pm 13 OCT 2016
Bad news… with the NW winds a huge gust bust open a hatch on the weather radar and it is hanging loose. It has a fail switch attached to it which renders the radar out of service until it is physically shut. As it is too dangerous to go out in these conditions the weather radar will remain out of service until the technician can get out to it safely.
Quoting 105. Tampa969mlb:

yes it does the planet has been changing forever. did u know florida was once under an ocean. also ice covered most of the usa back in the day. one thing u can count on is change. trying to stop the change is not natural,


Don't ruin the narrative by bringing logic into the conversation.
Quoting 84. hydrus:

74. sigh
3:57 PM GMT on October 13, 2016


Ignorant..?

A hundred years ago, less then 1 in 100 people died of cancer. Today in modern countries, 1 in 3 will be diagnosed with cancer, and 1 in 4 will die, many cases traced to to terrain and environmental conditions.


It's all the negative EMF - Wifi, cell-phone towers, high-tension power lines etc etc
114. wpb
1:15pm 13 OCT 2016
Bad news… with the NW winds a huge gust bust open a hatch on the weather radar and it is hanging loose. It has a fail switch attached to it which renders the radar out of service until it is physically shut. As it is too dangerous to go out in these conditions the weather radar will remain out of service until the technician can get out to it safely.
Quoting 113. EyewallPaul:



It's all the negative EMF - Wifi, cell-phone towers, high-tension power lines etc etc


omg...
Looks like the GFS had dropped the potential system in SW Carribean.
Quoting 78. SouthMississippi:



Then why relate every instance of severe weather into the narrative?

It's warmer than usual: Global Warming
It's a colder than usual year: O that proves climate change as well.
Hurricane: Human's are destroying the earth and causing it to happen
Wildfire's in California: Even more proof that we need to impound our SUV's
Floods in Texas: More legislation needed to combat "climate change"

It just really gets old. Can we not just enjoy being weather geeks without having to sort through the garbage?


It gets old? Okay, I understand that. You're tired of hearing the broken record on climate change. Believe it or not, I get it, because I get tired of hearing the same old denials.

And you know what? I'd shut up about it, because I like to please people, and I'm typically not a person who likes to stir up trouble.

But this topic is different.

Cassandra warned the Trojans about the Greeks' Wooden Horse. She told them not to bring it into the city. She was a prophet and saw the city burning, but the Trojans ignored her. In our modern epic, it's not the city of Troy that will be burning. It's our entire planet. And I understand exactly how Cassandra must have felt.

You think I'm talking hyperbole, but I'm really not. This is a slow moving disaster (in terms of human perception), and, unfortunately, that makes it easy to disbelieve. "Disasters have always happened. Climate has always changed. Records were meant to be broken." If you are too blind to see what is happening when the arctic is melting, record after record is falling, and unprecedented disaster after disaster is affecting the planet, then you are just as blind as the Trojans before Troy burned to the ground. "Shut up, Cassandra! We don't want to hear it. It gets old."

But I will not be complicit in your blindness. I will speak about it. Weather and climate are related.

If we don't make rapid changes on a societal level; if we fail to take action soon; Troy is going to burn. It won't be the end of life on Earth. Life is too resilient for that. I don't even think it will be the end of humanity, though others do. But it will be an end to the world and lifestyle we currently enjoy. The world with oceans just a few feet higher will not be the same as the world we currently inhabit, and it is not difficult to foresee that violence, strife, and hardship will ensue from the changes coming. Change is always stressful (even when it's good), and change is often painful (unless you're truly enlightened), and change is rarely easy.

When I was growing up, we didn't typically measure rainfall amounts in feet. The Carolinas have recently discovered that this is not a good thing. But it is our future. Oklahoma and Texas have discovered it is not a good thing. But it is our future. Oregon and the Pacific Northwest are about to discover it is not a good thing. But it is our future. Billion dollar weather disaster after billion dollar weather disaster is our future.

You think it's "just nature being nature?" Fine. Get used to it. I think we could prevent it from getting worse. But because of people like you, I'm equally sure we won't.
Quoting 105. Tampa969mlb:

yes it does the planet has been changing forever. did u know florida was once under an ocean. also ice covered most of the usa back in the day. one thing u can count on is change. trying to stop the change is not natural,


Would you be kind enough to explain to me how any of this means that our dumping tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere is not having a warming influence on the global climate now?
Quoting 116. hurricanewatcher61:

Looks like the GFS had dropped the potential system in SW Carribean.


I would still look to this area in the next couple weeks. The 12Z GFS is showing a strong cold front that makes it all the way down to the western Caribbean. This could provide the additional energy needed for a low pressure to spin up in that area.
But if a low does form, there's a good possibility it will get stuck down in the western Caribbean and move into the Yucatan. We see systems like this a lot near the end of the season.

I think that window (in about 10 -14 days from now) is our best chance to see another system. It could also be the last system to possibly threaten the U.S. this season. There could be additional spin ups later (November) in the season forming in the Caribbean but I think they will only threaten the islands, Central America, or Mexico.
Cancer rates are also higher, especially in America, due to the western/terrible diet.

Link
How in the hell can in 2016 we still have maps that aren't even mapped correct of islands on actual websites?? No wonder people are stupid and uninformed, can't even get the truth out of anything.

Bye Nicole, see ya later. Bermuda probably back to normal by the weekend. Luckily quick mover, leeward side of storm. Sure it was a fun ride though!

Based on Wunderground there's only been two major hurricanes to strike the U.S. in November. Link
Hurricane Kate, November 20 - 21, 1985, 120 mph winds
Hurricane Greta November 5 - 6, 1956, 140 mph winds


All November major hurricanes, source wundergroundLink
The six major November hurricanes were Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, 150 mph); Hurricane Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, 120 mph); Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane 10 of 1932 (Cat 4, 135 mph); and Hurricane 7 of 1912 (Cat 3, 115 mph). There have been no major hurricanes in the months December through April.

Saturday prog showing extratropical Songda rapidly intensifying off the Pac NW coast.

Songda in upper left at 170 W. Jet streak at 150 W rounding the trough poised to generate a wave/low that will move the frontal zone down into northern California late tonight and tomorrow. Invest 99E in lower right at about 115 W looking like a tropical depression, but reportedly without a closed surface circulation yet.
Quoting 122. SecretStormNerd:

Cancer rates are also higher, especially in America, due to the western/terrible diet.

Link


And a culture of stress inducing habits as well.
Quoting 113. EyewallPaul:



It's all the negative EMF - Wifi, cell-phone towers, high-tension power lines etc etc


Quoting 109. Icantthinkofausernam:



That's because they were dying from the flu, polio, malaria, measles, smallpox, rabies, malnutrition, and any number of other causes that have been greatly reduced or eliminated. Cancer has always been around, it just has a lot less competition from other diseases these days...


Spot on. Many people didn't live long enough to be taken out by cancer 100 years ago. You'd be very fortunate to live to see 60 y/o bad then. Today with crestor, plavix, insulin, vaccines, seeing 90 y/o is common. Talk to a urologist and they will tell you any man who lives long enough will always eventually get prostate cancer.
131. elioe
Luzon doom:

Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:

Based on Wunderground there's only been two major hurricanes to strike the U.S. in November. Link
Hurricane Kate, November 20 - 21, 1985, 120 mph winds
Hurricane Greta November 5 - 6, 1956, 140 mph winds


All November major hurricanes, source wundergroundLink
The six major November hurricanes were Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, 150 mph); Hurricane Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, 120 mph); Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane 10 of 1932 (Cat 4, 135 mph); and Hurricane 7 of 1912 (Cat 3, 115 mph). There have been no major hurricanes in the months December through April.

In the eight years since that article was posted, at least one change has been made due to reanalysis. The November 1932 Cuba hurricane was found to have been of category 5 intensity.
Quoting 131. elioe:

Luzon doom:



No kidding, that 12Z GFS run for 94W is the strongest output that I can remember all year for a tropical cyclone so far.
Quoting 123. RitaEvac:

How in the hell can in 2016 we still have maps that aren't even mapped correct of islands on actual websites?? No wonder people are stupid and uninformed, can't even get the truth out of anything.




It is a shame..... Good Call.
Quoting 119. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Would you be kind enough to explain to me how any of this means that our dumping tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere is not having a warming influence on the global climate now?
i never said it didnt, but i wouldnt be to concerned about it. with the rapid advances in technology it wont be long till we can fix it. just like in the science fiction movies...all that stuff is comming to pass really fast. i am much more concerned about artifical intellengence machines figutring out they dont need us. now that keeps me up at night.
136. TorB
Quoting 105. Tampa969mlb:
yes it does the planet has been changing forever. did u know florida was once under an ocean. also ice covered most of the usa back in the day. one thing u can count on is change. trying to stop the change is not natural,

Yes, change is natural, but check out http://xkcd.com/1732/ for a timeline of Earth's average temperature these past 20,000 years. (Before then were some huge temperature dips and peaks.)

Something that is spectacular is how little Earth's climate changed over the past 10,000 years. We, and other species, have gotten very used to this climate. There have been a few noticeable dips and bumps, and we were on a very slow cooling trend during the 5,000 years or so before the 1700s, but the rapid change we are now experiencing is providing quite a shock to many of the world's biomes. Easily explained scientific principles - try www.skepticalscience.com/ - (with atmospheric and other data) demonstrate human-caused increases in atmospheric CO2 is the main culprit. Reducing atmospheric CO2 levels (to, perhaps, 350 ppm from the current 400) would save our descendants much grief. The choice to do this or not is politics. (And how to do it isn't obvious, at least to me.)

Interesting, too, that some researchers conclude more intense hurricanes are possible in a warming world. I note that the good Doctors (or one of them) didn't expect Nicole to become even a TS when the NOAA folks were giving it something like a 40% chance of forming, and two recent RI episodes were not predicted by the models (although some folks here did so). Related?
i cant believe the temps in the US......no wonder we are feel like august in the caribbean its insane...
hope things arent too bad in Bermuda
12z Euro is still onboard with development showing a tropical storm in the GOM in a week:

Quoting 135. Tampa969mlb:

i never said it didnt, but i wouldnt be to concerned about it. with the rapid advances in technology it wont be long till we can fix it. just like in the science fiction movies...all that stuff is comming to pass really fast. i am much more concerned about artifical intellengence machines figutring out they dont need us. now that keeps me up at night.


Have you been watching Westworld?
just send some rain i really hope we arent done...its just not enough....
Quoting 120. Sfloridacat5:



I would still look to this area in the next couple weeks. The 12Z GFS is showing a strong cold front that makes it all the way down to the western Caribbean. This could provide the additional energy needed for a low pressure to spin up in that area.
But if a low does form, there's a good possibility it will get stuck down in the western Caribbean and move into the Yucatan. We see systems like this a lot near the end of the season.

I think that window (in about 10 -14 days from now) is our best chance to see another system. It could also be the last system to possibly threaten the U.S. this season. There could be additional spin ups later (November) in the season forming in the Caribbean but I think they will only threaten the islands, Central America, or Mexico.
Quoting 139. RitaEvac:



Have you been watching Westworld?

Great show!
Quoting 141. SecretStormNerd:


Great show!


Yea, I'm hooked!
Quoting 135. Tampa969mlb:

i never said it didnt, but i wouldnt be to concerned about it. with the rapid advances in technology it wont be long till we can fix it. just like in the science fiction movies...all that stuff is comming to pass really fast. i am much more concerned about artifical intellengence machines figutring out they dont need us. now that keeps me up at night.




Quoting 127. BayFog:


Songda in upper left at 170 W. Jet streak at 150 W rounding the trough poised to generate a wave/low that will move the frontal zone down into northern California late tonight and tomorrow. Invest 99E in lower right at about 115 W looking like a tropical depression, but reportedly without a closed surface circulation yet.


I would just like to take a moment to say thank you for the narrative to accompany the image here. I know very little about meteorology but am fascinated by it and try to learn from what I see and read on this blog (among other more scholarly sources, no offense). Its often feels like learning a new language and sometimes knowing what to look for or where to start in evaluating charts, graphs, and images can be challenging.

Often people who post on this blog simply post an image or a map with no narrative. I'm sure that many of you can look at the image straight away and know what the poster is trying to convey, but I often don't. Anytime I see someone provide an explanation of what it is I'm looking at, I find it to be so much more informative (and gratifying).

Many who post on here regularly may never see this post, but those of you that do, if you have time to rattle off a short narrative to accompany any images or maps you post please know it would be greatly appreciated by this poster.

Again, thank you OP for the description. It was very helpful.


these guys are in the basement 969
Waiting on news later as to the impacts on Bermuda.  In terms of the entry comment from Dr. Masters as to having a ways to go with intensity modelling, SSTs in the Bahamas region and all the way up to the Eastern Seaboard (and off-shore) were-are at record warmest temps for October.
No surprise there in terms of more fuel to energize a storm................The real "x" factor is shear.............Impossible to predict a sudden shear drop that often occurs within a 24 hour period, or less, over some tropical storms.....................RI is very tough to predict as a result.





 
Quoting 145. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



these guys are in the basement 969
aaaawwwhh....nightmares tonight....lol
Quoting 148. Tampa969mlb:

aaaawwwhh....nightmares tonight....lol
we already got the three laws

Three Laws of Robotics"

A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.

A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.

A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
Quoting 151. Grothar:


speaking of nightmares I see gro is showing a helliween nightmare trying to scare people
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:

Based on Wunderground there's only been two major hurricanes to strike the U.S. in November. Link
Hurricane Kate, November 20 - 21, 1985, 120 mph winds
Hurricane Greta November 5 - 6, 1956, 140 mph winds


All November major hurricanes, source wundergroundLink
The six major November hurricanes were Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, 150 mph); Hurricane Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, 120 mph); Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane 10 of 1932 (Cat 4, 135 mph); and Hurricane 7 of 1912 (Cat 3, 115 mph). There have been no major hurricanes in the months December through April.
Kate was not a major hurricane when it made landfall.
Quoting 151. Grothar:




Boo!
Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we already got the three laws

Three Laws of Robotics"

A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.

A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.

A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.


What if someone programs the robot to harm human beings?
Also noting on the sheer issues, and intensity modelling, that I suspect that these models initialize with current shear conditions as fed into them from CIMSS information and then direct sampling from recon; hence many NHC forecast discussions with regard to shear keeping a system in check or allowing a system to intensify when looking at the real time synoptic environment. But you notice that these discussions rarely use the term anticyclone.

Don't know whether the intensity models factor in an anti-cyclone already (based on outflow from a well developed storm), along with actual shear values, or leave that factor out of the equation and just go based on shear alone.

Also note that every storm is different; Andrew blew up (RI) between the Bahamas and Florida due to a combination of a sudden shear drop and very warm SSTs. Matthew on the other had surprised many; one of the RI episodes with Matthew in the Central Caribbean occurred with moderate shear and no well defined anti-cyclone overhead at one particular point due south of Puerto Rico......................Why that particular storm was a lesson in itself over and above the RI issue.
Quoting 151. Grothar:



Just keep it away from Haiti!
Ok have ? for those more knowledgeable than I. Now maybe it has always been this way and I haven't noticed it but it seems in the last few systems Sat recon feed is just ever so slightly off as compared to actual radar sweeps . Can the land mass overlay positioning be off on the SAT pix? I know radar has angle component but its pretty spot on close up, DevilIsle says he walking around in the eye and sat says eye misses Bermuda. Any ideas?
Quoting 152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

speaking of nightmares I see gro is showing a helliween nightmare trying to scare people

Just some people if he was serious it would be going thru windward passage.
Quoting 109. Icantthinkofausernam:



That's because they were dying from the flu, polio, malaria, measles, smallpox, rabies, malnutrition, and any number of other causes that have been greatly reduced or eliminated. Cancer has always been around, it just has a lot less competition from other diseases these days...
True. Being sick in the first place can increase your chances of developing cancer significantly.
Quoting 135. Tampa969mlb:

i never said it didnt, but i wouldnt be to concerned about it. with the rapid advances in technology it wont be long till we can fix it. just like in the science fiction movies...all that stuff is comming to pass really fast. i am much more concerned about artifical intellengence machines figutring out they dont need us. now that keeps me up at night.


Were it not your attempt to say that human activity is not having a warming influence on the global climate now then what was the purpose of your statement?

As for advances in technology saving us going forward I can only say that we are not now flying our cars to work as was what advances in technology was said to have brought us by now. The only technology that could possibly save us going forward is technology that could cost effectively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. This technology would have to be in wide scale use before positive feedback scenarios have removed this as making any difference at all. Our only alternative would seem to be that we use collective mind energy to will The Laws of Physics to suit our needs as we need them to do so. What do ya got in this department?

As for AI and robotics taking over for us and then deciding that it now no longer needs us, that is a possibility. Just how likely is this possibility? There is nothing that would lead us to believe that our continuing to dump CO2 into the atmosphere would just only continue to have a warming influence on the global climate. Is that how we defeat AI and robotics? We simply end up with a planet that would not offer a safe environment or a need for AI and robotics?

(Click to enlarge). Great Himawari pic of TS Sarika ("Karen" in the Philippines) at the nightly doorsteps of the Philippines. Really a huge system which shouldn't have enough time to become a major typhoon, windwise, at least according to current forecasts, but probably with copious rains in its luggage. (Next player in the WPac could be even worse.)

Here the loop, worth watching.
Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we already got the three laws

Three Laws of Robotics"

A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.

A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.

A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.


That would be Isaac Asimov's Foundation? From the 1950's I think.
Quoting 158. lat25five:

Ok have ? for those more knowledgeable than I. Now maybe it has always been this way and I haven't noticed it but it seems in the last few systems Sat recon feed is just ever so slightly off as compared to actual radar sweeps . Can the land mass overlay positioning be off on the SAT pix? I know radar has angle component but its pretty spot on close up, DevilIsle says he walking around in the eye and sat says eye misses Bermuda. Any ideas?


Doppler, and direct observations on the ground, from the site is the best measure; I am not familiar with how they overlay with the land or what compensation might be done to the satt loops, but you also have to consider the "angle" from which the satt pic is taken for any particular storm. Sometimes a NOAA goes satt pick of the Cabo Verde Islands might give the impression of a direct pass over the Islands (from a storm or wave) but then a Meteo-Satt shot, from a satellite over the African Coast at the same time (more over head) will show the slight miss of the land mass...................Just my guess.
Quoting 155. FunnelVortex:



What if someone programs the robot to harm human beings?
then a robot programed to follow the three laws will destroy the programed one to harm humans
Quoting 131. elioe:

Luzon doom:



A pressure of 883 mbs. and what looks to be a Megi/Haiyan type annular typhoon, and it's showing a max wind speed of 122 knots? Sorry, how can that possibly be correct at all? I could buy 152 knots.

Talk about intensification errors and underestimation within a major model run. :-(

Jo
According to WeatherBell, the Atlantic's ACE has soared to now be 139% of normal - ahead of the EPAC, which only has 135% of its normal ACE.

I still don't think the Atlantic active era is over, at least not as long as the subtropics remain as warm as they are. The subtropics being extremely warm has fueled numerous storms over the past few years, such as Joaquin, Gaston and most recently Nicole. The activity is still there, it's just occurring later in the season at a higher latitude.
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:

Based on Wunderground there's only been two major hurricanes to strike the U.S. in November. Link
Hurricane Kate, November 20 - 21, 1985, 120 mph winds
Hurricane Greta November 5 - 6, 1956, 140 mph winds


All November major hurricanes, source wundergroundLink
The six major November hurricanes were Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, 150 mph); Hurricane Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, 120 mph); Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane 10 of 1932 (Cat 4, 135 mph); and Hurricane 7 of 1912 (Cat 3, 115 mph). There have been no major hurricanes in the months December through April.
The regurg of JeffMasters) blog you linked mentions Paloma but the blog was written before Paloma became a Nov 2008 major.
:)
So seven.
basin scan mode now some disturb weather forming in sw carb

watch wait see mode on

Quoting 53. SouthMississippi:



You do realize that "extreme" weather events have been happening since the beginning of time right? No reason to guilt trip folks into thinking we are somehow ruining things for our children.

Weather event or climate event? Does it matter? Climate is part of the weather. Weather events happen man, no reason to buy into the media hype and try to sensationalize some narrative.

Actually, you are downplaying the danger, un-hyping if you prefer. One example of what is going on and what the danger is the Russian heat wave of 2010. Take a look at this graph:


In a warming world, these anomalies will become more and more frequent -and not just heat. We will see similar anomalies wrt rain, snow, drought, and even cold in some places as the climate we have come to know over the last few millennia (the climate that has allowed our civilization to develop to this point) becomes increasingly unstable.

Comments like those in your post always remind me of this guy:
And you people call me strange?? :):) How did we segue from Nicole to robots?

Don't worry, robots will never take over, take over, take over, take over.........
Quoting 168. Barefootontherocks:

The regurg of JeffMasters) blog you linked mentions Paloma but the blog was written before Paloma became a Nov 2008 major.
:)
So seven.
Paloma did not strike the US.
Quoting 171. Grothar:

And you people call me strange?? :):) How did we segue from Nicole to robots?

Don't worry, robots will never take over, take over, take over, take over.........


Nicole seemed to have a mind of its own? Guided by AI and transported by robotics?

How have you been Grothar? No one is saying that you are strange. That is not the adjective being used to describe you. ;) The adjective being used is "omnipotent".
Quoting 169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

basin scan mode now some disturb weather forming in sw carb

watch wait see mode on


Yep...The upper trough over the Central Caribbean should lift out as Nicole departs, making things mighty ripe for development.
150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

There was a zeroeth law which was above the others:

"A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm."
Quoting 172. stormwatcherCI:

Paloma did not strike the US.
Yes. Paloma hit Cayman Brac and Little. Only two of the six mentioned struck the U.S. ? The way I read it (comment 125) anyway, so I am thinking all Atlantic Nov majors.

You might want to read the comment and link provided at 125.
Quoting 171. Grothar:

And you people call me strange?? :):) How did we segue from Nicole to robots?

Don't worry, robots will never take over, take over, take over, take over.........


WARNING! WARNING! WARNING! WILL ROBINSON!
Quoting 173. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Nicole seemed to have a mind of its own? Guided by AI and transported by robotics?

How have you been Grothar? No one is saying that you are strange. That is not the adjective being used to describe you. ;) The adjective being used is "omnipotent".


Nice to see you, rook! I've been good, but they pick on me all the time.



Exactly my own problem, when looking for news of the storms in the Pacific Northwest, lol. It's of an advantage, that (Ex-)Songda once got its name, otherwise it would be even more difficult.
Quoting 172. stormwatcherCI:

Paloma did not strike the US.

Quoting 176. Barefootontherocks:

Yes. Paloma hit Cayman Brac and Little. Only two of the six mentioned struck the U.S. ? The way I read it (comment 125) anyway, so I am thinking all Atlantic Nov majors.

You might want to read the comment and link provided at 125.

Ps. Tired of being nice.
I drop in and add to the conversation about the number of November majors. You did not read what the OP discussed at 125 (let alone the link provided there) and neither did your plussers. I did.

FYI. I know Paloma. I heard first hand stories of the devastation.

Geez Loueez.

Add: This blog has become a waste of time and energy.
Quoting 177. HurricaneHunterJoe:



WARNING! WARNING! WARNING! WILL ROBINSON!


We have the da Vinci robot that helps in prostate and brain surgery- but never at the same time and never amidst a hurricane.
Quoting 161. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Were it not your attempt to say that human activity is not having a warming influence on the global climate now then what was the purpose of your statement?

As for advances in technology saving us going forward I can only say that we are not now flying our cars to work as was what advances in technology was said to have brought us by now. The only technology that could possibly save us going forward is technology that could cost effectively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. This technology would have to be in wide scale use before positive feedback scenarios have removed this as making any difference at all. Our only alternative would seem to be that we use collective mind energy to will The Laws of Physics to suit our needs as we need them to do so. What do ya got in this department?

As for AI and robotics taking over for us and then deciding that it now no longer needs us, that is a possibility. Just how likely is this possibility? There is nothing that would lead us to believe that our continuing to dump CO2 into the atmosphere would just only continue to have a warming influence on the global climate. Is that how we defeat AI and robotics? We simply end up with a planet that would not offer a safe environment or a need for AI and robotics?
i just said i wasnt worried about it. i agree its a issue. its just like politics we all have a different take on it. i respect your opinion. i just have a different view on it. i didnt meen to offend anyone and if i did im sorry. scotty
I see a spin or 2 already in the SW Caribbean...

i was just reading the local news in bermuda and it sounds like there was a lot of damage.
Latest Euro...



Quoting 105. Tampa969mlb:

yes it does the planet has been changing forever. did u know florida was once under an ocean. also ice covered most of the usa back in the day. one thing u can count on is change. trying to stop the change is not natural,

It's a truism to say the planet has been changing forever. That's true but it doesn't change for no reason. There's always a physical process behind the change. Science tells us the current changing climate is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and that the rate of change far outpaces most naturally driven climate change. To expect that the current rapid change is without consequences is wishful thinking.
Quoting 160. hydrus:

True. Being sick in the first place can increase your chances of developing cancer significantly.


Not if you dead from them before it has a chance to form. You should visit an old cemetery (I did on one of the island off cedar key FL) and read the info on the head stones. People dying 100 years ago were dying much younger (less than 50 y/o) and it wasn't cancer. Cancer is much more prevalent after age 50.
Quoting 133. 1900hurricane:


No kidding, that 12Z GFS run for 94W is the strongest output that I can remember all year for a tropical cyclone so far.

Pretty poetic that the next name on the list is Haima.



Very sad and it'll likely continue to rise. At this rate it'll be over 2,000...
Quoting 174. hydrus:

Yep...The upper trough over the Central Caribbean should lift out as Nicole departs, making things mighty ripe for development.


Yeah, this is the region to watch in October and the only one yet to have a lot of energy sucked out of it from hurricanes already this year. Shear in the Gulf would probably destroy anything moving north before getting too strong however.
Quoting 169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

basin scan mode now some disturb weather forming in sw carb

watch wait see mode on



Please, we don't need Otto yet. He can stay on vacation for a little bit longer.
Quoting 179. barbamz:




Exactly my own problem, when looking for news of the storms in the Pacific Northwest, lol. It's of an advantage, that (Ex-)Songda once got its name, otherwise it would be even more difficult.


Riversong(da), sort of like from Dr. Who. It looks like a river of atmospheric moisture, anyway.
Quoting 173. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Nicole seemed to have a mind of its own? Guided by AI and transported by robotics?

How have you been Grothar? No one is saying that you are strange. That is not the adjective being used to describe you. ;) The adjective being used is "omnipotent".


That's why we call him "Miracle-Gro.



More frightening footage from Bermuda / Hurricane Nicole (apparently TWC could be using it, judging from the comments on Ingrum.net) :
Link
I do not link to the original website as I couldn't find the fullscreen feature there, but the link is included in the tweet if you want to check it out (video origin, location unclear to me).
Ex-Matthew still hanging around in Iceland today where it caused very heavy rains and flooding. Icelandic Met Office.


Source.

With a nice flood video from the lonely outbacks in Iceland:
Krossá river doubles in size since yesterday
Iceland Monitor | Wed 12 Oct 2016 | 17.08 GMT

Good night from Germany everyone, stay safe (esp. in the Pacific Northwest).
Maybe an interesting pattern by 10 days for us in the NE Caribbean.

Quoting 193. ChillinInTheKeys:



That's why we call him "Miracle-Gro.

It's very odd. From what I have seen, Grothar's predictions have been freakishly accurate. He said that a tropical wave over Africa would become Matthew. He was right. He said that Nicole would become a major hurricane when models predicted otherwise. He was right. I also remember reading something on Google that Grothar is the "Santharian God of Weather." lol
Quoting 196. CaribBoy:

Maybe an interesting pattern by 10 days for us in the NE Caribbean.



Yout thinking that potential storm could be near South FL in 10 days???
Quoting 198. nygiants:


Yout thinking that potential storm could be near South FL in 10 days???


No, I was thinking about something else just north of PR
the arctic is on its way out......
Quoting 149. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Quoting 194. 999Ai2016:

More frightening footage from Bermuda / Hurricane Nicole (apparently TWC could be using it, judging from the comments on Ingrum.net) :
Link
I do not link to the original website as I couldn't find the fullscreen feature there, but the link is included in the tweet if you want to check it out (video origin, location unclear to me).
Wow, that looks intense and rather horrifying, and I can't possibly imagine being outside in that. What do you more experienced, learned types think the max sustained wins are in that video? 80 mph? 90? Higher? :O

Jo
Quoting 184. Tampa969mlb:

i was just reading the local news in bermuda and it sounds like there was a lot of damage.
Link BerNews latest news. we have not, as of yet in our travels, seen catastrophic levels of damage, with Bermuda%u2019s strong buildings appearing to have carried us through yet another storm.
From Bermuda's The Royal Gazette newspaper:

6pm update

"Hurricane Nicole is continuing farther out into the Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Centre at 3pm putting its eye 90 miles northeast of the island.

Nicole has caused serious damage to the island’s infrastructure, causing walls and roads to collapse, tearing roofs off buildings, ripping up trees, smashing boats against rocks and flooding numerous homes and roads.

Walls are said to be damaged along the Causeway, which is being assessed. It will remain closed until at least tomorrow, according to the EMO.

Flooding victims included Victor Scott Primary School, while Bailey’s Bay Cricket Club’s structure suffered extensive damage. Residents near Elbow Beach report a significant outflow from a broken pipe. Other details of damage are coming through to us this afternoon as residents emerge cautiously from their homes"........Link
Quoting 185. hydrus:

Latest Euro...






If something does form, its movement will be determined by the front expected around that time period that is expected to make it all the way into the N.W Caribbean. Will the system beat the front and be able to move north towards the Gulf Coast or be pulled to the NE towards Florida or the Islands (Cuba or Hispaniola)?
There's also the possibility of the system getting stuck in the Caribbean and being forced into the Yucatan.

We just wait and watch.
Quoting 182. Tampa969mlb:

i just said i wasnt worried about it. i agree its a issue. its just like politics we all have a different take on it. i respect your opinion. i just have a different view on it. i didnt meen to offend anyone and if i did im sorry. scotty


I took no offense.
True. We all do have different takes on it. Unlike politics, opinions do not mean much when you have the different lines of scientific evidence to use concerning climate change.
Quoting 178. Grothar:



Nice to see you, rook! I've been good, but they pick on me all the time.


Did I not try to warn you when you said that you were going to sit at the top of the hill? :)
Time to start thinking of N names to replace Nicole if indeed the name gets retired. Some choices I have are Noreen, Natalie, Nellie, Nikki, Norma. Any other ideas?
The marvelous richness of human experience would lose something of rewarding joy if there were no limitations to overcome. The hilltop hour would not be half so wonderful if there were no dark valleys to traverse.

Helen Keller


🌅🌎
“I’m sure you’ve heard the expression ‘everyone is entitled to their opinion.’ Perhaps you’ve even said it yourself, maybe to head off an argument or bring one to a close. Well, as soon as you walk into this room, it’s no longer true. You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to what you can argue for.”

The problem with “I’m entitled to my opinion” is that, all too often, it’s used to shelter beliefs that should have been abandoned. It becomes shorthand for “I can say or think whatever I like” – and by extension, continuing to argue is somehow disrespectful. And this attitude feeds, I suggest, into the false equivalence between experts and non-experts that is an increasingly pernicious feature of our public discourse.

Link
212. elioe
Quoting 188. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Pretty poetic that the next name on the list is Haima.


In Finnish, "haima" means "pancreas". Ouch... if my pancreas go wandering around in the Pacific, is it time for me to stop drinking?
Quoting 212. elioe:



In Finnish, "haima" means "pancreas". Ouch... if my pancreas go wandering around in the Pacific, is it time for me to stop drinking?


Haimana! Haimana! Haimana!...

How close did the GFS get intensity-wise to Matthew from invest to 5-7 days out? Because that run for the Philippines...

Quoting 212. elioe:



In Finnish, "haima" means "pancreas". Ouch... if my pancreas go wandering around in the Pacific, is it time for me to stop drinking?


Are you from Finland?
215. elioe
Quoting 214. win1gamegiantsplease:

Are you from Finland?


Yes.
216. IDTH
Quoting 185. hydrus:

Latest Euro...





I saw this same thing on the GFS except that there was a huge low that blew up over land. From what I saw from the 12z runs the models seem to be hinting at a strong trough.
Quoting 216. IDTH:


I saw this same thing on the GFS except that there was a huge low that blew up over land. From what I saw from the 12z runs the models seem to be hinting at a strong trough.

18z GFS has storm by South Florida
GFS has genesis occuring by next Thursday
240 hr 18z GFS, nearing S FL and then hooks out sharply. Hmm, where have I seen that before?

Quoting 216. IDTH:


I saw this same thing on the GFS except that there was a huge low that blew up over land. From what I saw from the 12z runs the models seem to be hinting at a strong trough.


At 216 hr, I wish that was January or February, looks like fun
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.
Again, a big thanks to Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson for including the PacNW in your posts. My husband had been blowing off the storm until I told him that there was going to be a blog post about the storm tomorrow. His response was "Wait, really? In hurricane season?" He then immediately started looking at the weather! I got a good laugh out of that.

In any case, so far today it's been rain. Steady, rain. In Seattle proper we've received just over .8 inches since midnight. The forecast is between 1-2 inches in the lowlands (Seattle included) before tomorrow morning. There has been no wind, yet. The High Wind Warning starts in 2 hours. Today's storm is a typical storm. The High Wind Watch for Saturday has also just been posted...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
329 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016

SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA- LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS- BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
329 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR A SECOND STORM THAT WILL ARRIVE AROUND SATURDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND PEAK BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE A SECOND STORM SATURDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WIND EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE ACROSS THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. TREE DAMAGE IS TYPICALLY GREATER THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. PREPARE FOR TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. FALLING TREES AND LARGE LIMBS ARE AN OCCASIONAL CAUSE OF INJURY AND FATALITY DURING WESTERN WASHINGTON WINDSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS OR DAMAGING HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.


What ever develops wil certainly have excellent outflow especially on its northern side.
I hope and pray that our special correspondents in Bermuda are okay...albeit without power for the most part.
Good riddance to naughty Nicole.

Blessings!