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Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.

Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.

Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.


Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. DFWjc
Quoting Remek:


Note the phrase "further NW then N".

Probably should have said NNW then N. Still, it won't be like suddenly turning a corner.


Ah okay, now i've got ya, thanks...
00z ECMWF is looking very interesting so far.

I'll let it be a surprise for ya'll.
Quoting Ryuujin:


She's ingested some of the dry air that's been lingering and will work it out, but in the meantime she'll head a bit more west?
A couple of us were talking today about the ULL in the GOM that was developing, and if it would influence the models any. It looks like more than one of us were right on. That's where the dry air is coming from, and that's probably helping pull it just a little bit to the west.

I assumed the models had this figured in, but apparently they didn't.

It's still moving generally northwest, but that ULL in the GOM is influencing it. This thing is pulling to the west a little.

3004. scott39
Quoting atmosweather:


Yup, and that 5 degrees further north trend in 6 hr motion has been pretty consistent for every 6 hour period since Tuesday morning. Look at all the NHC complete advisories since then and you'll see that it moves ever so slightly more N every period. This is exactly the type of turn or "bend" that the NHC and models have been forecasting for 3 days.
Irene looks sick to me.
Between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Irene moved 0.4 degrees N and 0.6 degrees W.

When looking at the 12 hour forecast position from the 5 p.m. NHC discussion on August 24 Irene is already 0.2 degrees west of the forecast position for 5 a.m.

I still don't think this is a Florida, Georgia or even South Carolina threat. But it's going to be very hard for Irene not to hit North Carolina. Already 0.4 degrees west of Cape Hatteras.
Seriously? We're arguing over a freaking turn? WU you never cease to amaze me.
Quoting Grothar:


I know, just wanted to see if everybody else knew. Good call.


You sound like a few former college professors of mine lol. "Just a pop quiz that's all."
3008. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
That dry air looks pretty bad to me gro and a weakning Irene. But them again LOOKS can be deceiving.


Not really, she just took a bite of dry air and she is trying to fix herself up again. See, they do that many times, especially on the western side, because most of the time they have already moistened their atmosphere to the east
Quoting DFWjc:


But the curve i'm talking about is the one that people are saying it's going DUE N not just NW or NNW


The due north isn't supposed to happen for another 12 to 24 hours
3010. Grothar
Quoting atmosweather:


You sound like a few former college professors of mine lol. "Just a pop quiz that's all."


I am a professor, but not of meteorology. Force of habit.
3011. scott39
Quoting Grothar:


Not really, she just took a bite of dry air and she is trying to fix herself up again. See, they do that many times, especially on the western side, because most of the time they have already moistend their atmosphere to the east
Will that raise the pressure?
3012. Remek
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Seriously? We're arguing over a freaking turn? WU you never cease to amaze me.


Where you been? People have been posting (yelling) questions and looking for a curve or turn N since early yesterday!
Quoting Kowaliga:
A/B ridge fightin' the trof but but the top hatch is still wide open...




what do the white lines just north of irene mean? they go west or sw. i see the lines around the highs go clockwise,its airflow and steering, right? why aew we paying attrntion to the bermuda high,but it seems the lines that go west dont count? or are they someting else? did that make sense?
Man we are about to have T.S. Jose and Hurricane Irene by the 10 am advisory.
Quoting atmosweather:


Yup, and that 5 degrees further north trend in 6 hr motion has been pretty consistent for every 6 hour period since Tuesday morning. Look at all the NHC complete advisories since then and you'll see that it moves ever so slightly more N every period. This is exactly the type of turn or "bend" that the NHC and models have been forecasting for 3 days.


which is precisely what I was trying to say.
Quoting TheNewGuy:
00z ECMWF is looking very interesting so far.

I'll let it be a surprise for ya'll.


uh oh his writing seemed to have asmile in it!
3017. jonelu
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Question is now how much the outer bands will affect florida coasts.
We can handle the outer bands here in FL...TS winds and rain are ok...but not more than that since we aren't prepared. I'm putting my full faith and trust in the NHC.
3018. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Will that raise the pressure?


Wish you had not posted that. I made a spelling error. I had to go back and correct it. Give me a B- on this post please.
3019. Ryuujin
Quoting Grothar:


Not really, she just took a bite of dry air and she is trying to fix herself up again. See, they do that many times, especially on the western side, because most of the time they have already moistend their atmosphere to the east


Those outer bands are really getting close to F...

Oh I almost said the "F" word.

Lets say the state where there are a lot of old people and oranges.. and a Mouse.
Quoting Remek:


Where you been? People have been posting (yelling) questions and looking for a curve or turn N since early yesterday!


But this isn't about when it's going to turn, it's about if it truly is a turn and not a bend or a curve and all sorts of nonsense like that. Asking when it will turn is different.
3021. scott39
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


The due north isn't supposed to happen for another 12 to 24 hours
will it go NNW first?
3022. DFWjc
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


The due north isn't supposed to happen for another 12 to 24 hours


I'll believe it when it happens, so far, it was supposed to turn more north two days ago and it didn't happen..
3023. Remek
Quoting Skyepony:
Had a 1 1/2' water moccasin at my back door at 1:50am. Kinda odd.


That's kind of tiny.

Unless you mean across rather than total length! :D

Oh, I see that's in feet. (Emily)Nevermind!(/Emily)


Quoting petewxwatcher:
Between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Irene moved 0.4 degrees N and 0.6 degrees W.

When looking at the 12 hour forecast position from the 5 p.m. NHC discussion on August 24 Irene is already 0.2 degrees west of the forecast position for 5 a.m.

I still don't think this is a Florida, Georgia or even South Carolina threat. But it's going to be very hard for Irene not to hit North Carolina. Already 0.4 degrees west of Cape Hatteras.
12 miles out of position
Quoting Ryuujin:


Those outer bands are really getting close to F...

Oh I almost said the "F" word.

Lets say the state where there are a lot of old people and oranges.. and a Mouse.


That starts with a C ;)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



what do the white lines just north of irene mean? they go west or sw. i see the lines around the highs go clockwise,its airflow and steering, right? why aew we paying attrntion to the bermuda high,but it seems the lines that go west dont count? or are they someting else?


That's because those lines are showing the airflow existing from the circulation of Irene. The loop is from the 500-850 mb layer which is shallow and not the correct layer that will steer an intense hurricane, therefore Irene's circulation has a huge influence on the general shallow steering winds.
3027. KRL
2AM here in Delray Beach, FL. Just outside walking my dog and the first bands of gusty winds are now coming ashore in Palm Beach County.

You can already sense the ominous force of nature upon us.

Prayers out to all those who are going to experience the full brunt and wrath of Irene in the coming days.
3028. Remek
Quoting victoriahurricane:


But this isn't about when it's going to turn, it's about if it truly is a turn and not a bend or a curve and all sorts of nonsense like that. Asking when it will turn is different.


A better Q might be - "Is it heading a solid due N yet?"
Quoting scott39:
will it go NNW first?


that would be logical lol
Quoting Remek:


A better Q might be - "Is it heading a solid due N yet?"


The answer is no and yes that would've been better.
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


which is precisely what I was trying to say.


Yeah I know I was trying to educate the wishcasters a little lol.
3032. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Will that raise the pressure?


It can. But as you know, storms do that frequently. Even very intense storms do not maintain that long. Some have broken records, but most fluctuate like this one has been doing for days. If any of you ever bothered to read my blogs, the answers are all there. :):):):)_
Quoting AllStar17:
All I know is this is no turn:
LOL .... about as matter of fact as we ever see around these parts.

3034. jonelu
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Irene moved 0.4 degrees N and 0.6 degrees W.

When looking at the 12 hour forecast position from the 5 p.m. NHC discussion on August 24 Irene is already 0.2 degrees west of the forecast position for 5 a.m.

I still don't think this is a Florida, Georgia or even South Carolina threat. But it's going to be very hard for Irene not to hit North Carolina. Already 0.4 degrees west of Cape Hatteras.
She is still going thru eye wall replacement..so we have a wobble to the left. Maybe she will come 30 miles closer...not much of a game changer.
Quoting Remek:


There is no "turn". It will be a gradual curve further NW, then N.


Yo make a very good point...Irene is very large and carries a great deal of atmosphere with her...hard to turn that much mass on a dime. Storms that make fairly drastic aspect changes tend to stall or sloow to a crawl before making a move like that. And again, as I said earlier, she appears to be moving a bit west of the forecast track; Levi made mention of 77W being critical and in looking at the map one has to agree; if she start that tendency northward she will not clear the OBX and in fact would tend to make landfall somewhere between Morehead and Wilmington...Camp Lejeune?
3036. Grothar
Quoting atmosweather:


That's because those lines are showing the airflow existing from the circulation of Irene. The loop is from the 500-850 mb layer which is shallow and not the correct layer that will steer an intense hurricane, therefore Irene's circulation has a huge influence on the general shallow steering winds.


You are quite adept at this. You should come on more often. Good analysis.
Quoting atmosweather:


That's because those lines are showing the airflow existing from the circulation of Irene. The loop is from the 500-850 mb layer which is shallow and not the correct layer that will steer an intense hurricane, therefore Irene's circulation has a huge influence on the general shallow steering winds.
thank you . the highs are deep layer muchas gracias
3038. emguy
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


18 hours ago it was moving at 290 degrees, now it's at 315. That is a curve and a change in mean direction in progress.


That directional information you are mentioning is a 6 hour mean. Not the direction the storm is actually moving on at this moment, it's just the longer term average.

It's probably a wobble that Irene has been on, but she has been running at about 285 degrees the last 3 hours. She is far enough west that she would have to move NNNW (alomst due North) to hit her next forecast point. Which she could accomplish if she is just wobbling due to eyewall dynamics and angular momentum due to islands. That said, she is closer to Nassau now than expected and she is currently west of track considering the shorter term guidance. By no mean does this mean a track change though. Even though there is still a small upper lavel cutoff in the Carolinas and another one gathering some pretty good steam in the eastern gulf (digging SW).
Quoting Grothar:


I am a professor, but not of meteorology. Force of habit.


Lol it all makes sense :p
3040. DFWjc
Quoting Floodman:


Yo make a very good point...Irene is very large and carries a great deal of atmosphere with her...hard to turn that much mass on a dime. Storms that make fairly drastic aspect changes tend to stall or sloow to a crawl before making a move like that. And again, as I said earlier, she appears to be moving a bit west of the forecast track; Levi made mention of 77W being critical and in looking at the map one has to agree; if she start that tendency northward she will not clear the OBX and in fact would tend to make landfall somewhere between Morehead and Wilmington...Camp Lejeune?


And if by morn it's at 79W, what then?
Decided to check - All day people have posted about the forecasts for Irene not showing it going further west than 77.0. Over the last few forecast advisories, the figure is now 77.4, at 26/1200Z so they have adjusted the forecast track westward due to the continued W component of Irene's motion, and expect it to retain some westward component for the next 24-36 hrs.
3042. Grothar
Quoting DFWjc:


And if by morn it's at 79W, what then?


Look for the fan.
Quoting Grothar:
Either dry air pocket or another EWRC.



The hurricane circulation has grown so much that cuba mountains are now in the way, upsetting Irene's symmetry.
Quoting TheNewGuy:
00z ECMWF is looking very interesting so far.

I'll let it be a surprise for ya'll.


Looks like more impacts for the NC coastline, according to the new ECMWF run. A direct hit, in fact.
3045. nigel20

Night guys.
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Irene moved 0.4 degrees N and 0.6 degrees W.

When looking at the 12 hour forecast position from the 5 p.m. NHC discussion on August 24 Irene is already 0.2 degrees west of the forecast position for 5 a.m.

I still don't think this is a Florida, Georgia or even South Carolina threat. But it's going to be very hard for Irene not to hit North Carolina. Already 0.4 degrees west of Cape Hatteras.


I'm figuring somehting between 77W and 77.2W at the 5AM point...not huge, by map standards, but tremendous in hurricane terms...
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



what do the white lines just north of irene mean? they go west or sw. i see the lines around the highs go clockwise,its airflow and steering, right? why aew we paying attrntion to the bermuda high,but it seems the lines that go west dont count? or are they someting else?


Your looking at the steering chart for a storm between 990-999mb. You should be looking at this one.

Quoting Remek:


That's kind of tiny.

Unless you mean across rather than total length! :D


It was about 1/2 grown. Adults are only like 3foot. The younger & smaller the more poisonous. I don't remember seeing a snake awake like that at night. It's breezy..
Quoting Grothar:


You are quite adept at this. You should come on more often. Good analysis.


Thanks much appreciated! I used to come here every night...particularly from 2005-2008. Been really busy with working and other things the last couple of years so I rarely get a chance to spend time blogging. I try to come when there is a storm that might threaten land areas or for major winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


Looks like more impacts for the NC coastline, according to the new ECMWF run. A direct hit, in fact.


May I ask where exactly? Sittin here in Wilmington getting nervous...
Quoting Floodman:
Yo make a very good point...Irene is very large and carries a great deal of atmosphere with her...hard to turn that much mass on a dime. Storms that make fairly drastic aspect changes tend to stall or sloow to a crawl before making a move like that. And again, as I said earlier, she appears to be moving a bit west of the forecast track; Levi made mention of 77W being critical and in looking at the map one has to agree; if she start that tendency northward she will not clear the OBX and in fact would tend to make landfall somewhere between Morehead and Wilmington...Camp Lejeune?

Back in 1991 when watching the weather channel, when it was still good, John Hope was talking about Hurricane Bob which had just passed west of 77 W. John Hope said that if Bob made it to 78 W a landfall on NC was practically inevitable, because hurricanes west of 78 W off the south Atlantic coast almost always make landfall from Cape Hatteras southward. Not always, there are some exceptions. But John Hope considered 78 W to be the key.

And of course, Hurricane Bob never reached 78 W and never made landfall in North Carolina. But he did hit New England.
3051. Dunkman
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


May I ask where exactly? Sittin here in Wilmington getting nervous...


I'm sitting at 72h so I can't see exactly but looks really close to Morehead. However, given the westward trend, I wouldn't exactly feel safe in Wilmington.
3052. scott39
If Irene continues to travel the same rate of speed she is now at the same direction....she will be about 20 to 40 miles S of the next forecast point. This could be significant for S/N Carolina IMO. Then again she could slow down turn and hit it. Im not going there with the Fl. scenerio. NO NEED IMO.
Quoting comments is messing up for me. Sorry.
Quoting atmosweather:


Thanks much appreciated! I used to come here every night...particularly from 2005-2008. Been really busy with working and other things the last couple of years so I rarely get a chance to spend time blogging. I try to come when there is a storm that might threaten land areas or for major winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.


Well it's good to see you.. You've been missed.

I'm off to sleep.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


May I ask where exactly? Sittin here in Wilmington getting nervous...


Right around Morehead City as a Category 4 storm. Remember though it is just one run of one model. If it becomes a trend with the rest of the global models and if Irene continues NW-ward for a little longer later today then it might be time to get a little more concerned in NC.
Quoting Skyepony:


Well it's good to see you.. You've been missed.

I'm off to sleep.


Thanks skyepony have a good night!
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


May I ask where exactly? Sittin here in Wilmington getting nervous...


A tad inside of the Outer Banks. Overall not much of the change for the ECMWF, it's been the western solution for several runs now. There would be minimal effects in New England according to this model, since the system would go over New Jersey and have a slight west component.
Quoting Dunkman:


I'm sitting at 72h so I can't see exactly but looks really close to Morehead. However, given the westward trend, I wouldn't exactly feel safe in Wilmington.


Thanks, keep me posted what happens with the rest of the run if you don't mind. Or atleast the next frame
Thanks everyone, going to sleep now. Interested to see if I have tropical storm watches or hurricane watches tomorow. That'll let me know how to prepare
3060. JLPR2
Well I'm off to bed.
Also, dang! Not bad at all.

25/0545 UTC 12.3N 30.3W T2.5/2.5 90L

Satellite estimates love 90L
Quoting jonelu:
I agree...but it's scary with her so close. I should just trust it and go to bed.


I don't see any problem with being cautious. I, too, am on the SE coast of Florida and am keeping an eye on it. That doesn't mean we are freaking out, but just wondering what is possible.

Luckily, I'm assuming most SoFla people took care of their preps earlier in the week when the models were pointing at a Palm Beach landfall. With this in mind, most should be able to rest easy. The only sticking point is if it were to come ashore as a Cat 4.

I'm still thinking the most we will get is a swipe up the coast. Still, it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on her.
3064. jonelu
Can someone post the latest Euro?
New surf forecast for the northeast, with analysis of trough coming from Canada:

http://www.nesurf.com/reports.html
Quoting DFWjc:


And if by morn it's at 79W, what then?


Given the N tendency, you just put everything from Savannah to the OBX in the cone, depending on the timing and strength of the shortwave; it won't happen though; she'll end up west of the track point, the trof will move in start to lift her and the net result will be Wilmington back in the crosshairs, most likely. The high is building in from the east but that pesky little trof will have a pretty noticeable effect (in fact, already is)
Quoting jonelu:
Can someone post the latest Euro?


Link to the 00z Euro loop.
3068. jonelu
Quoting GaleWeathers:


I don't see any problem with being cautious. I, too, am on the SE coast of Florida and am keeping an eye on it. That doesn't mean we are freaking out, but just wondering what is possible.

Luckily, I'm assuming most SoFla people took care of their preps earlier in the week when the models were pointing at a Palm Beach landfall. With this in mind, most should be able to rest easy. The only sticking point is if it were to come ashore as a Cat 4.

I'm still thinking the most we will get is a swipe up the coast. Still, it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on her.
I agree...you never know...better safe than sorry..
Quoting Floodman:


Yo make a very good point...Irene is very large and carries a great deal of atmosphere with her...hard to turn that much mass on a dime. Storms that make fairly drastic aspect changes tend to stall or sloow to a crawl before making a move like that. And again, as I said earlier, she appears to be moving a bit west of the forecast track; Levi made mention of 77W being critical and in looking at the map one has to agree; if she start that tendency northward she will not clear the OBX and in fact would tend to make landfall somewhere between Morehead and Wilmington...Camp Lejeune?
how close do you all think she will get to the east coast of florida before shes fully on north trajectory?
3070. Relix
90L/Future Jose definitely going outwards to sea right?
3071. DFWjc
Quoting Floodman:


Given the N tendency, you just put everything from Savannah to the OBX in the cone, depending on the timing and strength of the shortwave; it won't happen though; she'll end up west of the track point, the trof will move in start to lift her and the net result will be Wilmington back in the crosshairs, most likely. The high is building in from the east but that pesky little trof will have a pretty noticeable effect (in fact, already is)


Thank you Flood, and i'm not trying to be any kind of caster, but is there any thing to change it from going N and keep it's present track?
G'night, skye!

Wow, have I been posting reasonable, measured thoughts that make sense from a meteorological standpoint and no jokes? Sleep deprivation; that must be it!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
how close do you all think she will get to the east coast of florida before shes fully on north trajectory?


Judging by the effects of the shortwave trough now and where it will be by tomorrow night, I'd say the distance of closest approach will be between 160 and 180 miles.
I think Irene will have a near steady pressure until tomorrow afternoon as she fights off dry air and goes through EWRC. Then deepen to mid/high 930s by late tomorrow night.

And cross 78 W by then too.
3075. jonelu
Quoting atmosweather:


Link to the 00z Euro loop.
Thanks!
Quoting Relix:
90L/Future Jose definitely going outwards to sea right?


Far too early to say that. Global patterns hint that after moving into a CATL weakness the subtropical ridge may force the system back to the W. But until we get a named storm all models are speculation.
3077. Dunkman
Wow recon already back in the air, and "Gonzo" is back out there dropping more sondes...NHC isn't screwing around.
Sunday morning high tide looks dicey at Ocean City Maryland...

84 hours out GFS shows hurricane force winds blowing almost directly onshore at the time of a 4.0 foot high tide.
Quoting Floodman:
G'night, skye!

Wow, have I been posting reasonable, measured thoughts that make sense from a meteorological standpoint and no jokes? Sleep deprivation; that must be it!


My problem is alcohol deprivation. I've not had any reasonable, measured thoughts in quite a while.
3080. NCSCguy
How windy do yall think it will be in charleston come fri/sat.
Meanwhile in the WPAC...
Quoting DFWjc:


Thank you Flood, and i'm not trying to be any kind of caster, but is there any thing to change it from going N and keep it's present track?


The totally miraculous act of an advanced alien race...LOL

Now that's more like it!

No, seriously: she's a strong, stacked storm and feels the full effect of trofs (and ridges) and unless the trof miraculously backs up or speeds up to an insane level, she will feel it and move toward it. Stonger she is, the more effect it will have on her (to a point) but again, as big as she is the change won't be immediate, but again, she's already tending muhc more north than she was yesterday...just expect the westward component to fade a bit
Wow that euro model showed Irene at 921 at her Peak intensity, that would make her a strong cat 4 by the very least i do beleive.
Good morning, just woke up and looking for an Irene update. See the satellite is messed up.
East coast of Florida under tropical storm warning, watch, and a flood warning.

3085. jonelu
Quoting atmosweather:


Judging by the effects of the shortwave trough now and where it will be by tomorrow night, I'd say the distance of closest approach will be between 160 and 180 miles.
and the east side has TS winds extending only 120 miles?
3086. DFWjc
Quoting Floodman:


The totally miraculous act of an advanced alien race...LOL

Now that's more like it!

No, seriously: she's a strong, stacked storm and feels the full effect of trofs (and ridges) and unless the trof miraculously backs up or speeds up to an insane level, she will feel it and move toward it. Stonger she is, the more effect it will have on her (to a point) but again, as big as she is the change won't be immediate, but again, she's already tending muhc more north than she was yesterday...just expect the westward component to fade a bit


LMFAO!! cool thanks again Flood!
3087. jonelu
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, just woke up and looking for an Irene update. See the satellite is messed up.
East coast of Florida under tropical storm warning, watch, and a flood warning.

I think thats OFF coast. It confused me at first too...but notice how the flood watch in green is on land...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TYPHOON NANMADOL (T1111)
15:00 PM JST August 25 2011
============================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nanmadol (965 hPa) located near 16.3N 125.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in south quadrant
120 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.0N 124.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 19.7N 124.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 21.4N 124.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Quoting NCSCguy:
How windy do yall think it will be in charleston come fri/sat.


Rainbands will arrive there sometime on Friday with gusty winds, Friday night will see the worst of the conditions and you guys should receive winds to tropical storm force along with 1-3 inches of rain. Saturday will be quite breezy too but with much drier flowing in from the back side of the system so it could be pretty sunny.
Quoting NCSCguy:
How windy do yall think it will be in charleston come fri/sat.


Should be a fairly brisk ocean breeze from the east. Possibly.
Quoting atmosweather:


Judging by the effects of the shortwave trough now and where it will be by tomorrow night, I'd say the distance of closest approach will be between 160 and 180 miles.
thanks for answering,everyone else must have on ignore. another question at what longtitude would yo start to have concerns if the north turn had not started yet. i know the turn has started from wnw to nw and we waiting on nnw and north.but what longtitude for florida residents to worry
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Quoting Floodman:
Yo make a very good point...Irene is very large and carries a great deal of atmosphere with her...hard to turn that much mass on a dime. Storms that make fairly drastic aspect changes tend to stall or sloow to a crawl before making a move like that. And again, as I said earlier, she appears to be moving a bit west of the forecast track; Levi made mention of 77W being critical and in looking at the map one has to agree; if she start that tendency northward she will not clear the OBX and in fact would tend to make landfall somewhere between Morehead and Wilmington...Camp Lejeune?



Back in 1991 when watching the weather channel, when it was still good, John Hope was talking about Hurricane Bob which had just passed west of 77 W. John Hope said that if Bob made it to 78 W a landfall on NC was practically inevitable, because hurricanes west of 78 W off the south Atlantic coast almost always make landfall from Cape Hatteras southward. Not always, there are some exceptions. But John Hope considered 78 W to be the key.

And of course, Hurricane Bob never reached 78 W and never made landfall in North Carolina. But he did hit New England.


He was right, but again it has to do with the situation and the steering; if this one gets to say 77.5W a hit on NC is pretty much a given, though is could end up glancing the OBX and then move on to bigger and nastier thing in New England.
Hmm, it's gonna be close for NYC.

Astronomical High Tide at Ellis Island on Sunday night is 8:27 PM at 6.7 feet.

Strongest on shore winds appear to be within 3 hours of that time... though of course there's still plenty of uncertainty.

Hackensack River Tides

Good night and good luck all, especially Nassau! They may be getting a ruder than normal wake-up call in a few hours.
3094. Relix
Quoting atmosweather:


Far too early to say that. Global patterns hint that after moving into a CATL weakness the subtropical ridge may force the system back to the W. But until we get a named storm all models are speculation.


I live in the Greater Antilles so I guess by then I'll be out of harms way. More worried about the wave behind after the weakness closes itself.
6z suite

TVCN goes over NYC

Quoting jonelu:
and the east side has TS winds extending only 120 miles?


West side has TS force winds extending out 120 miles in the SW quadrant and 150 miles in the NW quadrant. That could expand a little further though as her EWRC finishes and her outflow continues to ventilate her windfield.
Good obs jonelu.
Okay, back to bed for me.
Goodmorning. and Goodnight again.
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Quoting comments is messing up for me. Sorry.


IE? Try enabling Tools/Compatibility View, then refresh.
Hi guys, I am just learning all of this and I was wondering how bad you think it will be here in Baltimore MD? I feel like I should be nervous...
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


IE? Try enabling Tools/Compatibility View, then refresh.
Or use Chrome or Firefox. They're way better than IE.
From SC2007

6z


Quoting Relix:


I live in the Greater Antilles so I guess by then I'll be out of harms way. More worried about the wave behind after the weakness closes itself.


So far nothing to worry about.
3103. jonelu
Quoting atmosweather:


West side has TS force winds extending out 120 miles in the SW quadrant and 150 miles in the NW quadrant. That could expand a little further though as her EWRC finishes and her outflow continues to ventilate her windfield.
my bad... I meant to say west...Im dyslexic :-)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
thanks for answering,everyone else must have on ignore. another question at what longtitude would yo start to have concerns if the north turn had not started yet. i know the turn has started from wnw to nw and we waiting on nnw and north.but what longtitude for florida residents to worry


Unless something very dramatic and unforseen happens with the shortwave trough in the Great Lakes flying by, stalling or vanishing completely (lol), then Florida will not need to worry. She is continuing to bend more and more to the north with every advisory package. She would have to reach at least 78W or 78.5 for anyone in Florida to be worried and that is very unlikely to happen.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
thanks for answering,everyone else must have on ignore. another question at what longtitude would yo start to have concerns if the north turn had not started yet. i know the turn has started from wnw to nw and we waiting on nnw and north.but what longtitude for florida residents to worry


I'm not ignoring you. But I probably couldn't've answered your question, if I'd seen it. Hey what's the deal spell check is putting a red line under couldn't've, but my iphone automatically puts it in when texting.. Who's smarter the comp. or my SMART phone?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


IE? Try enabling Tools/Compatibility View, then refresh.


Nope firefox. Let's see if quoting you works!

It did work this time.
So how acurracte is that euro model anyone?

The Atlantic's pretty moist. Unlike last year.
Quoting DFWjc:


LMFAO!! cool thanks again Flood!


No worries...every now and again I achieve a somewhat higher level of lucidity and all the things I've absorbed come out...other times I'm just nuts...LOL
Quoting bmrcatgrl:
Hi guys, I am just learning all of this and I was wondering how bad you think it will be here in Baltimore MD? I feel like I should be nervous...


If the NHC track turns out to be correct then Irene should pass Baltimore around 130-150 miles to the east, which would still give you guys the potential for 1-2 inches of rain and some tropical storm force winds in some of the heavier rainbands.
Quoting MoltenIce:
Or use Chrome or Firefox. They're way better than IE.


True, but for many reasons, some can't.
Quoting mikeylikesyouall:
So how acurracte is that euro model anyone?


Up to this point it has performed the best out of all the global models with Irene, both in track and intensity.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


Nope firefox. Let's see if quoting you works!

It did work this time.


Strange...?
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


I'm not ignoring you. But I probably couldn't've answered your question, if I'd seen it. Hey what's the deal spell check is putting a red line under couldn't've, but my iphone automatically puts it in when texting.. Who's smarter the comp. or my SMART phone?


You put it in the iPhone manually by overriding the spellchecker twice...

Yeah, I have teh, tge and various other typos created by my fat fingers in the damaned thing. Have to figure out how to reset it one of these days
Hi bmrc...

Well, we're not experts so please watch your local NWS forecast for the latest information...

That said, the latest computer models seem to show sustained tropical storm force winds by early morning on Sunday.

As far as the worst case scenario? You could still get the eye-wall. The GFS currently has it going about 80 miles east of you as a weakening category two storm. (~100 mph)

*EDIT*
Heck, it's even possible that a pretty good storm surge could come up Chesapeake Bay if several factors line up, so I'd be especially careful if you live near there.
Quoting atmosweather:


If the NHC track turns out to be correct then Irene should pass Baltimore around 130-150 miles to the east, which would still give you guys the potential for 1-2 inches of rain and some tropical storm force winds in some of the heavier rainbands.


Thanks, it's kind of hard to get a handle on any information on the news or online because everyone is saying something different.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Strange...?


I probably just did it wrong because I woke up and still 1/4 asleep. And if it was a WU glitch there's nothing I can do about it ;) And going back to sleep. The hurricane will still be here tomorrow! Night all.
Quoting prioris:
the government has enough weather control technology certainly to intensify and maybe steer the hurricane to some extent so one can never be certain about these forecasts. the supposed hurricane destruction in new orleans was caused by blowing up the dams. there are no shortage of witnesses to hearing explosions but really only the the perpetrators to investigate.

so one can never be too sure of these forecasts since weather can be manipulated.

they always push the warm water as the cause of intensification but empirical observation will show these storms strengthen in cold water.

one of the missing data in storms like hurricanes and tornadoes are the electromagnetic fields. they are never discussed even though they are the critical factor to their formation.

Nature is not meant to be disrupted IMO.
Quoting Floodman:


You put it in the iPhone manually by overriding the spellchecker twice...

Yeah, I have teh, tge and various other typos created by my fat fingers in the damaned thing. Have to figure out how to reset it one of these days


LOL yeah it took me some getting used to as well, with the fat fingers. I didn't like the touch screen to begin with. I liked my old phone that had buttons I could mash. You know us southern people don't press buttons we mash em'. But I do know that couldn't've isn't actually a word. But by God it should be, just like mash em' is.
Quoting bmrcatgrl:


Thanks, it's kind of hard to get a handle on any information on the news or online because everyone is saying something different.


Very true, obviously there is a lot of hype about this storm and rightly so because it is an extremely dangerous hurricane that is in line to affect tens of millions of people. Just listen to your trusted local meteorologists, the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service forecasts and warnings. You will get good and valuable information.
Quoting iahishome:
Hi bmrc...

Well, we're not experts so please watch your local NWS forecast for the latest information...

That said, the latest computer models seem to show sustained tropical storm force winds by early morning on Sunday.

As far as the worst case scenario? You could still get the eye-wall. The GFS currently has it going about 80 miles east of you as a weakening category two storm. (~100 mph)


Thanks, I have been watching Irene since she was an Invest but I don't have enough skill to interpret models on my own.

We are going to be as prepared as we can be. Food, water, batteries, candles etc. The only tropical storm I remember ever experiencing is Floyd! I didn't even lose power. I do not expect the same here this time...
Also, BMC,

Keep in mind that the NHC forecast is not a line. You're still 3 days out and they admit that their forecast contains about 144 miles of error that far in advance. (Commonly referred to as the cone.)

NHC Forecast Errors

Therefore, the storm could completely miss you, staying out over the ocean with nothing more than a stiff breeze (granted, this appears UNLIKELY, as it's the eastern end of the envelope), or it could come directly over your house.

It's better to be prepared for the latter. Realistically, watches or warnings for your area will probably go up on Friday morning if they're still warranted.

By 48 hours out, the typical error in an NHC forecast is less than 100 miles and if your area is warned, you can pretty much assume that from this bull, you're gonna get the horns.
man the blog has gone from overdrive to neutral. It gets any slower it'll be in reverse. I could barely keep up earlier.
3125. NJ2S
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


A tad inside of the Outer Banks. Overall not much of the change for the ECMWF, it's been the western solution for several runs now. There would be minimal effects in New England according to this model, since the system would go over New Jersey and have a slight west component.


Wouldnt that mean the worst case scenario for nnj and NYC ??
the latest gfs run looks pretty bad for the gom next week
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
man the blog has gone from overdrive to neutral. It gets any slower it'll be in reverse. I could barely keep up earlier.


Yeah... I'm way out in California and I've got to sleep. I'm pretty sure many of the mere mortals are sleeping now. I was trying to stay up long enough to see Levi pop back in after his movie, but I've got work in 7 hours, so I'll just have to see what's up in the morning.

Good luck everyone!
3128. prioris
>Nature is not meant to be disrupted IMO.

the Pentagon doesn't agree with you
Quoting NJ2S:


Wouldnt that mean the worst case scenario for nnj and NYC ??


It would be severe for NC, the mid-Atlantic states and southern NJ but a lot better for NYC, Long Island and points north and east of that because Irene would be traveling near or over land once it reaches the northeast and would likely weaken to a tropical storm at that point.
After observing the reliable model runs tonight and looking at the pattern.. One hell of a storm peeps.. REED run in full effect tonight

3131. NCSCguy
Quoting prioris:
the government has enough weather control technology certainly to intensify and maybe steer the hurricane to some extent so one can never be certain about these forecasts. the supposed hurricane destruction in new orleans was caused by blowing up the dams. there are no shortage of witnesses to hearing explosions but really only the the perpetrators to investigate.

they always push the warm water as the cause of intensification but empirical observation will show these storms strengthen in cold water.

one of the missing data in storms like hurricanes and tornadoes are the electromagnetic fields. they are never discussed even though they are the critical factor to their formation.

Ummmm.... yeaaaahhhh...
3132. Gorty
Quoting TheNewGuy:
From SC2007

6z




Wow they shifted more west!
Here is the official hurricane evac map for NYC (re: storm surge), should it become relevant. It speaks for itself.

pdf of NYC hurricane evac map

WTO
3134. Gorty
Are we looking at a historic situation unfolding for New England?
3135. NJ2S
Quoting atmosweather:


It would be severe for NC, the mid-Atlantic states and southern NJ but a lot better for NYC, Long Island and points north and east of that because Irene would be traveling near or over land once it reaches the northeast and would likely weaken to a tropical storm at that point.


Oh ok I thought she was turning back towards nj from the water
3136. Gorty
Btw, I think Irene is going through an eye wall replacement cycle.
Quoting Gorty:
Are we looking at a historic situation unfolding for New England?

yes
Meanwhile, Irene is beginning to rebuild strong convection in her western semicircle and her inner core is reorganizing at a faster pace. She is doing better at mixing out some of the dry air that was ingested earlier when her new eyewall was having trouble getting established.
3139. Gorty
Quoting reedzone:

yes


I will be part of it cause I am in western Mass.
Quoting prioris:
the government has enough weather control technology certainly to intensify and maybe steer the hurricane to some extent so one can never be certain about these forecasts. the supposed hurricane destruction in new orleans was caused by blowing up the dams. there are no shortage of witnesses to hearing explosions but really only the the perpetrators to investigate.

they always push the warm water as the cause of intensification but empirical observation will show these storms strengthen in cold water.

one of the missing data in storms like hurricanes and tornadoes are the electromagnetic fields. they are never discussed even though they are the critical factor to their formation.



I'm sorry; my tinfoil hat was a little too tight and I missed a good deal of that...hurricanes strengthen over cold water you say? Can you provide us with some examples of this phenomenon in action?
3141. prioris
>Ummmm.... yeaaaahhhh...

hurricanes do strengthen as they travel into colder water


The tenth tropical cyclone of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has formed from 90L.

000
WHXX01 KWBC 250630
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0630 UTC THU AUG 25 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TEN (AL902011) 20110825 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110825 0600 110825 1800 110826 0600 110826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 29.8W 13.5N 30.4W 14.9N 31.3W 16.6N 32.4W
BAMD 12.3N 29.8W 12.7N 31.5W 13.2N 33.1W 13.9N 34.4W
BAMM 12.3N 29.8W 13.0N 31.4W 13.7N 32.8W 14.5N 34.2W
LBAR 12.3N 29.8W 12.8N 31.6W 13.5N 33.3W 14.5N 35.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110827 0600 110828 0600 110829 0600 110830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 33.5W 20.4N 36.8W 20.9N 39.5W 20.9N 41.4W
BAMD 14.9N 35.5W 17.3N 36.6W 19.7N 35.5W 23.3N 35.7W
BAMM 15.4N 35.6W 17.3N 37.7W 18.4N 38.5W 19.2N 39.4W
LBAR 15.9N 36.0W 19.6N 36.2W 24.3N 34.7W 30.1N 30.1W
SHIP 64KTS 74KTS 70KTS 61KTS
DSHP 64KTS 74KTS 70KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 29.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 27.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 25.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


LOL yeah it took me some getting used to as well, with the fat fingers. I didn't like the touch screen to begin with. I liked my old phone that had buttons I could mash. You know us southern people don't press buttons we mash em'. But I do know that couldn't've isn't actually a word. But by God it should be, just like mash em' is.


LOL...
3144. prioris
>i'm sorry; my tinfoil hat

at least i know you got tin foil hat
Quoting Gorty:
Are we looking at a historic situation unfolding for New England?


Highly dependent on the eventual track she takes. A track similar to the latest Euro is good news for the northeast but bad news for NC and the mid Atlantic states. The current NHC track would be potentially catastrophic for NJ and NYC eastward, while a path further to the east would be very bad for RI, MA and ME.
3146. Gorty
Quoting atmosweather:


Highly dependent on the eventual track she takes. A track similar to the latest Euro is good news for the northeast but bad news for NC and the mid Atlantic states. The current NHC track would be potentially catastrophic for NJ and NYC eastward, while a path further to the east would be very bad for RI, MA and ME.


How about western Mass?
Quoting prioris:
>Ummmm.... yeaaaahhhh...

hurricanes do strengthen as they travel into colder water




Looking for some specificity; name one tropical systyem that has strengthened over cold water...okay, water cooler than say, 80 fahrenheit?
Quoting Gorty:


How about western Mass?


Western MA should expect to receive tropical storm force winds with the current NHC track, and 4-6 inches of rain at least, possibly higher if Irene tracks directly over the area or slightly to the W.
Quoting atmosweather:


Highly dependent on the eventual track she takes. A track similar to the latest Euro is good news for the northeast but bad news for NC and the mid Atlantic states. The current NHC track would be potentially catastrophic for NJ and NYC eastward, while a path further to the east would be very bad for RI, MA and ME.


Any which way you put it, someone in the East is going to be hurting from Irene before it's over. Hell might even be bad for Canada too.
Quoting prioris:
>i'm sorry; my tinfoil hat

at least i know you got tin foil hat


Better safe than sorry...
3151. Gorty
Quoting atmosweather:


Western MA should expect to receive tropical storm force winds with the current NHC track, and 4-6 inches of rain at least, possibly higher if Irene tracks directly over the area or slightly to the W.


So since it would appear like she could track a little to the west of the NHC'c current track, I will be seeing stronger wind and heavier rain?
3152. dewfree
tracks have moved slighly to the west i see .Not by much but enough that my forecast of yesterday that said : from Mertle Beach to kitty hawk is still looking to hold .760 miles due south of Hatteras.the forecasted time was 2.00pm central miles away 905 miles.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM TALAS (T1112)
15:00 PM JST August 25 2011
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Near Mariana Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Talas (996 hPa) located near 19.4N 140.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.8N 140.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 23.2N 140.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 25.0N 140.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Quoting victoriahurricane:


Any which way you put it, someone in the East is going to be hurting from Irene before it's over. Hell might even be bad for Canada too.


Absolutely, that is a guarantee at this point in the game. At least one area of the East coast will face the brunt of a very dangerous hurricane, with possibly the entire coast feeling serious effects. And you are right about the impacts in SE-ern Canada. They will be looking at a very large extratropical storm pounding far E-ern Quebec and New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and SW-ern Nova Scotia with a lot of rain and gusty tropical storm force winds.
3155. prioris
>Can you provide us with some examples of this phenomenon in action?

the NWS reports the strengthening way up north many times over the years. you ought to pay attention.

some hurricanes will make it to england

you should look up arctic hurricanes

i remember even the blizzard of 1978 in new england was a giant hurricane shaped storm over the northeast

pushing the warm water myth is telling people lies about the weather


Quoting Gorty:


So since it would appear like she could track a little to the west of the NHC'c current track, I will be seeing stronger wind and heavier rain?


Yes that is possible. But a track like the 00z Euro would actually be a lot better for the NE since Irene will move over quite a bit of land in the mid Atlantic states before reaching the area and the wind damage will certainly be curtailed. The rainfall will still be a very serious concern no matter what the exact track is, and the storm is so large that all areas of the NE will see very gusty winds at the very least.
Quoting atmosweather:


Absolutely, that is a guarantee at this point in the game. At least one area of the East coast will face the brunt of a very dangerous hurricane, with possibly the entire coast feeling serious effects. And you are right about the impacts in SE-ern Canada. They will be looking at a very large extratropical storm pounding far E-ern Quebec and New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and SW-ern Nova Scotia with a lot of rain and gusty tropical storm force winds.


Yup, we definitely don't want another Hazel in Canada. 81 lives were taken and 100 million dollars was done in damage (1 billion using today's dollars). Don't want to see the worst Hurricane disaster ever be repeated again.
Quoting atmosweather:


Yes that is possible. But a track like the 00z Euro would actually be a lot better for the NE since Irene will move over quite a bit of land in the mid Atlantic states before reaching the area and the wind damage will certainly be curtailed. The rainfall will still be a very serious concern no matter what the exact track is, and the storm is so large that all areas of the NE will see very gusty winds at the very least.


And if Irene happens to take a track a little further W of the NHC forecast without crossing significant land in NJ, DE, NY and CT then there is a possibility she may still be a Category 1 hurricane moving into your area.
3159. Gorty
Quoting atmosweather:


Yes that is possible. But a track like the 00z Euro would actually be a lot better for the NE since Irene will move over quite a bit of land in the mid Atlantic states before reaching the area and the wind damage will certainly be curtailed. The rainfall will still be a very serious concern no matter what the exact track is, and the storm is so large that all areas of the NE will see very gusty winds at the very least.


I really can't believe the models have actually SPREAD out with the latest run! Albeit not a huge spread but enough to cause even more uncertainty. They are having a hard time with that next trough I guess.
Quoting Floodman:


I'm sorry; my tinfoil hat was a little too tight and I missed a good deal of that...hurricanes strengthen over cold water you say? Can you provide us with some examples of this phenomenon in action?


Got to have a properly fitted hat
3161. emguy
Based on the uper level cloud pattern and the track of the cyclone, Irene is apparently feeling the pull of the upper level low over the eastern Gulf. She's easily moving at an angle that is 15 to 20 degrees left of track with no wobbles for last 4-5 hours or so. The trend is unlikely to continue in the "significantly" longer term, but Nassau will likely have a harder hit, maybe even an eye passage. She's definately west of track, around 24.4 N, 76.0 W now.
3162. Gorty
Quoting atmosweather:


And if Irene happens to take a track a little further W of the NHC forecast without crossing significant land in NJ, DE, NY and CT then there is a possibility she may still be a Category 1 hurricane moving into your area.


A cat 2 can't be ruled out no matter the track.
23.5n75.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Irene's_6amGMT_ATCF
23.5n75.1w, 24.2n76.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 24August_6amGMT and ending 25August_6amGMT

The 4 shorter line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Irene's travel-speed was 12.5mph(20.1k/h) on a heading of 310.4degrees(NW)
H.Irene was headed toward passage nearly over Nassau(NewProvidence)Bahamas ~6&1/2_hours from now
H.Irene was headed toward passage between ChubCay and GreatHarborCay,Bahamas ~11hours from now
H.Irene was headed toward passage over IndianRiverEstates,Florida ~1day2hours from now

Copy&paste lgi, sml, rcy, tym, cat, nmc, cel, 21.3n72.5w-21.9n73.3w, 21.9n73.3w-22.7n74.3w, 22.7n74.3w-23.5n75.1w, 23.5n75.1w-24.2n76.0w, nmc, cel, nas, 23.5n75.1w-pid, ghb, elh, ccz, 23.5n75.1w-ghc, fpo, sua, 23.5n75.1w-27.346n80.277w, fpr, wkr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 25August_12amGMT)
Quoting Gorty:


I really can't believe the models have actually SPREAD out with the latest run! Albeit not a huge spread but enough to cause even more uncertainty. They are having a hard time with that next trough I guess.


It is the influence of a mid latitude trough that is expected to move towards the Great Lakes region that is causing the spread at days 4 and 5. If the trough were to amplify and deepen then Irene would be forced on more of a due N-erly track up the Mid Atlantic coast and into the NJ/NYC area.
3165. 34chip
Atmosweather you seem like a really smart guy that knows his stuff. You should become a weather guy. lol Anyway keep it up.
Irene max winds went down, why? Is this going to continue?
Quoting Gorty:


A cat 2 can't be ruled out no matter the track.


At a possible landfall yes, definitely in the conversation especially with 3 major models (GFDL/HWRF/Euro) consistently forecasting a very intense hurricane maintaining strength all the way to the NE US coast. However once the storm made it 50-100 miles inland and into central or W-ern MA it would most likely weaken to a Category 1 storm or tropical storm.
3168. Gorty
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Irene max winds went down, why? Is this going to continue?


My guess is eye wall replacement cycle.... looks like she is going to strengthen soon.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Irene max winds went down, why? Is this going to continue?


Only because of the EWRC she's going through right now, in about 12 hours or less, you'll see her ramp up again.
3170. NJ2S
Quoting atmosweather:


Yes that is possible. But a track like the 00z Euro would actually be a lot better for the NE since Irene will move over quite a bit of land in the mid Atlantic states before reaching the area and the wind damage will certainly be curtailed. The rainfall will still be a very serious concern no matter what the exact track is, and the storm is so large that all areas of the NE will see very gusty winds at the very least.


What about the models having her pass barely over land in n carolina a just off shore the delmarlva and nj directly into NYC ? What would that mean for me here in nnj I'm a few block away from the Hudson river barely 10 ft above sea/river level
3171. Gorty
Quoting atmosweather:


At a possible landfall yes, definitely in the conversation especially with 3 major models (GFDL/HWRF/Euro) consistently forecasting a very intense hurricane maintaining strength all the way to the NE US coast. However once the storm made it 50-100 miles inland and into central or W-ern MA it would most likely weaken to a Category 1 storm or tropical storm.


So bottom line, track and intensity is uncertain for any given location. Right?
Quoting 34chip:
Atmosweather you seem like a really smart guy that knows his stuff. You should become a weather guy. lol Anyway keep it up.


Thanks very much appreciated lol! I've learned a huge amount from bloggers on this site in the last 6 years, also had a chance to do an internship at NWS Peachtree City which was an invaluable experience. And of course 2 years of met courses in college doesn't hurt either lol. It is a fascinating scientific field and I learn something new everytime I come to the blog or open a weather map.
Quoting Gorty:


So bottom line, track and intensity is uncertain for any given location. Right?


Yes absolutely. But we are getting a better idea of what specific areas will experience the worst of Irene the closer she gets to the US coastline.
3174. Gorty
Quoting atmosweather:


Yes absolutely. But we are getting a better idea of what specific areas will experience the worst of Irene the closer she gets to the US coastline.


Do you think the eastern models, since they are shifting west, will they go back east or how far west could they go? By the New England area.
3175. Gorty
Looks like shes getting ready to take off again in intensity.
Quoting NJ2S:


What about the models having her pass barely over land in n carolina a just off shore the delmarlva and nj directly into NYC ? What would that mean for me here in nnj I'm a few block away from the Hudson river barely 10 ft above sea/river level


That type of a track would be the worst case scenario for NJ, NYC and Long Island, your area included. If that sort of a track begins to look likely then you need to think about leaving the area and making necessary preparations to protect your life and property. The entire NE-ern portion of NJ would be under threat from hurricane force winds and if you live south of Newark near the southern portion of the Hudson then storm surge could be a major problem.
Quoting atmosweather:


Thanks very much appreciated lol! I've learned a huge amount from bloggers on this site in the last 6 years, also had a chance to do an internship at NWS Peachtree City which was an invaluable experience. And of course 2 years of met courses in college doesn't hurt either lol. It is a fascinating scientific field and I learn something new everytime I come to the blog or open a weather map.
Ok smart guy, tell me if Irene may try and hook left? If she can go straight north, she could hook a little?
Quoting Gorty:


Do you think the eastern models, since they are shifting west, will they go back east or how far west could they go? By the New England area.


It's very hard to predict that. Based on the overall pattern and the predicted evolution of the approaching shortwave impulses I'd be surprised if any of the models shifted further W than a blend of the GFS/Euro solutions. That is probably the furthest W Irene's track would most likely take. The eastern solutions could move back to the west and follow the Euro's lead (which has done very well so far with Irene) or continue further to the east closer to E-ern Long Island, RI and MA.
Quoting prioris:
>Can you provide us with some examples of this phenomenon in action?

the NWS reports the strengthening way up north many times over the years. you ought to pay attention.

some hurricanes will make it to england

you should look up arctic hurricanes

i remember even the blizzard of 1978 in new england was a giant hurricane shaped storm over the northeast

pushing the warm water myth is telling people lies about the weather




So what your saying is that the definition of a hurricane is wrong and that you have discovered cold water tropical cyclones? That's amazing! Tell me more...or not; up to you. So these hurricanes dervei thier power from what, precisely? If you tell me pressure differntial we'll have to argue for a while...just saying
3180. Gorty
Quoting atmosweather:


It's very hard to predict that. Based on the overall pattern and the predicted evolution of the approaching shortwave impulses I'd be surprised if any of the models shifted further W than a blend of the GFS/Euro solutions. That is probably the furthest W Irene's track would most likely take. The eastern solutions could move back to the west and follow the Euro's lead (which has done very well so far with Irene) or continue further to the east closer to E-ern Long Island, RI and MA.


Ok thanks for all your input. Still a dangerous situation for me. The first outer band is forecast to come at me sat. night. Going to be interesting how strong the winds will be with the very first band of the cyclone.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Ok smart guy, tell me if Irene may try and hook left? If she can go straight north, she could hook a little?


That would depend on the strength and exact tilt of the mid latitude trough. I'd say it's unlikely that it would amplify far enough to impart a W-erly component to the motion by days 4 and 5. However if the trough comes in more negatively tilted, similar to what the 00z GFS is hinting at, then she could move on a slightly NNW course through the NE US.
An air force hurricane hunter plane is flying back into Irene to make a center fix for the 5AM advisory.
Hurricane Irene Bears Down on the U.S., Likely Adding to a Brutal Disaster Toll


But here's a particularly scary thought: even before Irene or any other hurricane makes landfall on the continental U.S., 2011 has already been a devastating year for weather-related disasters. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. has so far experienced nine separate disasters, each with an economic cost of $1 billion or more — tying a record set in 2008. (Usually, the U.S. experiences three to four billion-dollar weather events a year.) Beyond the cost — which adds up to about $35 billion so far — at least 589 people have died in those events, including 160 in the terrifying Joplin, Mo., tornado this May. Other billion-dollar disasters include:

The Groundhog Day blizzard on the East Coast, which cost more than $2 billion
The Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes in April, which cost more than $9 billion and killed more than 300 people
The Mississippi River flooding, which cost up to $4 billion
The Southwest heat wave and drought, which has cost at least $5 billion

Billion-dollar disasters aren't new — the U.S. has had 108 of them over the past 31 years, totaling more than $750 billion. (The figures are adjusted for inflation.) And 2011 may just be a taste of the future. Both the populations and the economies of many vulnerable areas have grown considerably in recent years (check out this photo of Miami Beach in 1926 and the same crowded coastal area today). More people and more development in parts of the country hit by storms and floods mean more expensive disasters. And that's without considering the possible impact that manmade climate change could have in amplifying some extreme weather events, like floods, heat waves and hurricanes. As Jim Harper writes in Scientific American, researchers are even considering adding a Category 6 to hurricane ratings — one with no upper limit for wind speed:
Now the ferocity forecast for the century adds to this classification problem. "The severe hurricanes might actually become worse. We may have to invent a category 6," says David Enfield, a senior scientist at the University of Miami and former physical oceanographer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This new level wouldn't be an arbitrary relabeling. Global satellite data from the past 40 years indicate that the net destructive potential of hurricanes has increased, and the strongest hurricanes are becoming more common — especially in the Atlantic.
This trend could be related to warmer seas or it could simply be history repeating itself. Data gathered earlier than the 1970s, although unreliable, show cycles of quiet decades followed by active ones. The quiet '60s, '70s and '80s ended in 1995, the year that brought Felix and Opal, among others, and resulted in $13 billion in damages and more than 100 deaths in the U.S.


Read more: http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/08/24/hurri cane-irene-bears-down-on-the-u-s-adding-to-a-bruta l-disaster-toll/
3184. dewfree
week front comming in from the north west so we will have to wait and see Irene get past the mid atlantic first .
Nothing is out of the question with any tropical system . They can head nw tun so much that they wind up farther south and west of position .
however i think it is more plausable NC at as i have said mertle to kitty hawk .next post 2 pm
see you guys
Dew
Quoting 34chip:
Atmosweather you seem like a really smart guy that knows his stuff. You should become a weather guy. lol Anyway keep it up.
agreed.

Prior to Irene, I haven't really seen him on the blog much this year, but he certainly knows his stuff and brings up great points. Keeps me on my toes that's for sure lol

Anyway, I'm just passing by really quick, don't think I'll be sticking around tonight.
3186. prioris
>So these hurricanes dervei thier power from what, precisely?

we can cross warm water off the list.

dust devils, tornadoes, hurricanes and even galaxy formations are all related to electromagnetic fields

the powers that be know more about the weather than they will tell you because they classify it as a weapon. they want to be able to artificially control and create events. they keep the population dumb down. when they cull the population more drasticallym, this will be useful to them.

so you don't know weather a hurricane, earthquake etc are really natural or artificially created or modified.

someone said to me that they watch the weather because it was one of the last vestiges that the government can't lie about that. i had to inform him that wasn't true. gargantuan lies are all over the scientific arena.


The NOAA G-IV plane ("Gonzo") has now sent down 11 dropsondes around the SE US coast sampling more and more of the environment for input in the 12z models.
3188. Gorty
Is it unpredictable how strong rain and wind with any band that hits me? someone please answer.
Did prioris leave? I was hoping to discuss the finer points of protective head gear and the advantages of lead lined propeller beanies versus your basic tinfoil hat...rats
Quoting TomTaylor:
agreed.

Prior to Irene, I haven't really seen him on the blog much this year, but he certainly knows his stuff and brings up great points. Keeps me on my toes that's for sure lol

Anyway, I'm just passing by really quick, don't think I'll be sticking around tonight.


Lol Irene is the first storm I've blogged wire to wire since 2009 I think...the time is hard to find nowadays. I miss being around here and learning and discussing.

And I should be doing the same as you considering I have work from 9-6 today haha.
Quoting Gorty:
Is it unpredictable how strong rain and wind with any band that hits me? someone please answer.


The outer bands are much harder to forecast than the thunderstorms closer to the eyewall because some of them can be simply passing showers and others can contain very strong winds, torrential rain and possible tornadoes. Once you get closer to the inner rainbands and the eyewall then you pretty much know you are going to get steadier rainfall and a lot more wind impacts.
Quoting Floodman:
Did prioris leave? I was hoping to discuss the finer points of protective head gear and the advantages of lead lined propeller beanies versus your basic tinfoil hat...rats


lead lined beanies hmmm Good idea flood
3193. prioris
Floodman I really don't want to hear about your tin foil hats. i think that's what those government paid posters talk about all the time.
3194. Gorty
Quoting atmosweather:


The outer bands are much harder to forecast than the thunderstorms closer to the eyewall because some of them can be simply passing showers and others can contain very strong winds, torrential rain and possible tornadoes. Once you get closer to the inner rainbands and the eyewall then you pretty much know you are going to get steadier rainfall and a lot more wind impacts.


Well not trying to sound mean to you or any other forecaster but I don't care what anyone says, I am going to be on the edge of my seat very concerned till she passes after hitting me or till I know the worst will be to my east or west.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Hurricane Irene Bears Down on the U.S., Likely Adding to a Brutal Disaster Toll


But here's a particularly scary thought: even before Irene or any other hurricane makes landfall on the continental U.S., 2011 has already been a devastating year for weather-related disasters. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. has so far experienced nine separate disasters, each with an economic cost of $1 billion or more — tying a record set in 2008. (Usually, the U.S. experiences three to four billion-dollar weather events a year.) Beyond the cost — which adds up to about $35 billion so far — at least 589 people have died in those events, including 160 in the terrifying Joplin, Mo., tornado this May. Other billion-dollar disasters include:

The Groundhog Day blizzard on the East Coast, which cost more than $2 billion
The Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes in April, which cost more than $9 billion and killed more than 300 people
The Mississippi River flooding, which cost up to $4 billion
The Southwest heat wave and drought, which has cost at least $5 billion

Billion-dollar disasters aren't new — the U.S. has had 108 of them over the past 31 years, totaling more than $750 billion. (The figures are adjusted for inflation.) And 2011 may just be a taste of the future. Both the populations and the economies of many vulnerable areas have grown considerably in recent years (check out this photo of Miami Beach in 1926 and the same crowded coastal area today). More people and more development in parts of the country hit by storms and floods mean more expensive disasters. And that's without considering the possible impact that manmade climate change could have in amplifying some extreme weather events, like floods, heat waves and hurricanes. As Jim Harper writes in Scientific American, researchers are even considering adding a Category 6 to hurricane ratings — one with no upper limit for wind speed:
Now the ferocity forecast for the century adds to this classification problem. "The severe hurricanes might actually become worse. We may have to invent a category 6," says David Enfield, a senior scientist at the University of Miami and former physical oceanographer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This new level wouldn't be an arbitrary relabeling. Global satellite data from the past 40 years indicate that the net destructive potential of hurricanes has increased, and the strongest hurricanes are becoming more common — especially in the Atlantic.
This trend could be related to warmer seas or it could simply be history repeating itself. Data gathered earlier than the 1970s, although unreliable, show cycles of quiet decades followed by active ones. The quiet '60s, '70s and '80s ended in 1995, the year that brought Felix and Opal, among others, and resulted in $13 billion in damages and more than 100 deaths in the U.S.


Read more: http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/08/24/hurri cane-irene-bears-down-on-the-u-s-adding-to-a-bruta l-disaster-toll/

Ca...ca...ca.ca.....ca....ca......category SIX!?!?!?!?!
Quoting Gorty:


Well not trying to sound mean to you or any other forecaster but I don't care what anyone says, I am going to be on the edge of seat till she passes after hitting me or till I know the worst will be to my east or west.


That's the best thing you can do. Be prepared and keep a very watchful eye until that evil monster gets out of dodge lol.
Quoting atmosweather:


Lol Irene is the first storm I've blogged wire to wire since 2009 I think...the time is hard to find nowadays. I miss being around here and learning and discussing.

And I should be doing the same as you considering I have work from 9-6 today haha.
oh ouch, and I'm guessing you live on the east coast too?

I live on the west coast (Southern California specifically) so its not too late here
Quoting prioris:
>So these hurricanes dervei thier power from what, precisely?

we can cross warm water off the list.

dust devils, tornadoes, hurricanes and even galaxy formations are all related to electromagnetic fields

the powers that be know more about the weather than they will tell you because they classify it as a weapon. they want to be able to artificially control and create events. they keep the population dumb down. when they cull the population more drasticallym, this will be useful to them.

so you don't know weather a hurricane, earthquake etc are really natural or artificially created or modified.

someone said to me that they watch the weather because it was one of the last vestiges that the government can't lie about that. i had to inform him that wasn't true. gargantuan lies are all over the scientific arena.




I'd love to discuss this with you further, I truly would; your take on things is fascinating, if somewhat, er, unconventional...unfortunately, I must retire as I have a particularly long day ;preparing for our govenr,ments (or is it someone elses) artificially induced weather catastrophe. Have a wonderful evening; next time you make it to this sector you must really look us up...

3200. Gorty
I think the NHC will shift their track a little west for New England area for 5 am but the cone may very well stay the same.
Quoting TomTaylor:
oh ouch, and I'm guessing you live on the east coast too?

I live on the west coast (Southern California specifically) so its not too late here


Just east of Orlando, FL. But in a couple of months I'll be moving just N of San Diego to start a new job with my father. Where abouts are you located?
Quoting Gorty:
I think the NHC will shift their track a little west for New England area for 5 am but the cone may very well stay the same.


I'd expect a small W-ward shift at days 4 and 5.
Quoting atmosweather:


That would depend on the strength and exact tilt of the mid latitude trough. I'd say it's unlikely that it would amplify far enough to impart a W-erly component to the motion by days 4 and 5. However if the trough comes in more negatively tilted, similar to what the 00z GFS is hinting at, then she could move on a slightly NNW course through the NE US.
wait, help me out a sec, how would a trough induce a westerly component?

Do you mean like if the trough amplified or dug in enough to the west that the path of lowest pressures/least resistance would actually be slightly west of north causing Irene to move more westerly?
3205. Gorty
Quoting atmosweather:


I'd expect a small W-ward shift at days 4 and 5.


Same. Idk why but I always like to say New England area rather than days 4 and 5 lol.
new blog
Quoting TomTaylor:
wait, help me out a sec, how would a trough induce a westerly component?

Do you mean like if the trough amplified or dug in enough to the west that the path of lowest pressures/least resistance would actually be slightly west of north causing Irene to move more westerly?


Yes, the Great Lakes trough could possibly deepen and amplify further to the south as the Euro and GFS are forecasting, and could even be at a slightly negative tilt which could force Irene a little to the NNW near the end of the 5 day period.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Core still struggling. Been struggling just about all day. Irene actually looked nicest last night as far as organization is concerned.

Dvorak numbers also reflect that
Poll:
What chances do you think NHC will downgrade Irene?
a.Never
b.Near 0 %
c.10%
d.20%
e.30%
f.40%
g.50%
h.60%
i.70%
j.80%
k.90%
l.Near 100%
m.Absolute 100%
3210. Gorty
Right now, then only thing that is really affecting her is herself with the inner stuff (LOL) I really don't know what to call it.

Could be sometime before she get's her inner stuff going again cause she's so large.
3211. njdevil
The problem with saying "prepare" for the NY/NJ area is that most of the preparations are mental. "I need to do this, I need to go here.." etc.

Especially if the worst case of a clean shot somewhere at/around/east of NYC happens. You get what, 12-18 hours notice? Where people normally prepare for storms the storm is plodding along taking its time. Once this thing gets near NC, it's going to take off like a bat out of hell. And the storm will probably come in sometime around midday.

Doesn't give you much time to put your mental preparations into action... other than "RUN!"

This really could be a total mess. Don't like seeing models come in right over my head because I know how little time I'm going to get. Hell, the storms over the last couple of years that were doing runs closer to Bermuda made me nervous for the same reason, and that was irrational.
Quoting atmosweather:


Just east of Orlando, FL. But in a couple of months I'll be moving just N of San Diego to start a new job with my father. Where abouts are you located?
damn, so its 4am lol

And thats cool (not so cool if you enjoy weather...southern California is just about the capital of non-eventful/significant weather phenomenon. Little rain, little temp variation, persistent marine layer along the coast all year long, little thunderstorm activity, no snow (except in the mnts to the east), hail is a rarity, no tropical storms, etc, etc) I live in San Diego right now. More specifically, I live in University City, which is like a subsection/neighborhood in San Diego. It's just east of La Jolla and north of Clairemont.
The models are trending west for good reason.

Irene is trending west ...



3214. ncstorm
I wake up and Wilmington is under a tropical storm watch now..
Can someone post the 5:00 am update plz.
Quoting vince1:

^Not conspiratorial and even if it reeks of politics, truth is more important than blissful ignorance.


I suspect that as poor as the government has been rated lately, they want to get something right. They look back on the Bush Admin response to Katrina as a major black-eye for him and this has the potential to be MUCH bigger.
Good Morning. To everyone in the cone: You are invited to check out my blog. I saved Hurricane prep tips that were added before Hurricane Gustave. Some great suggestions by hurricane veterans that I have used myself and found to be helpful. To all you Veterans please feel free to add your best tips once again. Please take Hurricane Irene seriously, my prayers are with you...