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Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2010

An intensifying Hurricane Earl is pounding Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this morning. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anguilla at 9am EDT, and Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT before going silent. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently in Earl just found a central pressure of 960 mb at 9:42 am EDT. This is a significant drop of 25 mb in 25 hours. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force aircraft were 128 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 115 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 2/ Cat 3 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 104 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl is not perfectly symmetrical--there is still fewer heavy thunderstorms on the hurricane's north side, suggesting that upper-level northerly winds are bringing 5 - 10 knots of wind shear to the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 7am EDT 8/30/10 from the St. Maarten radar. Image credit: Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico and St. Marten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Anguilla, St. Maarten, and The Settlement in the British Virgin Islands today. The periphery of Earl's southern eyewall will probably bring Category 1 hurricane conditions to some of these islands today. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Saint Maarten--a 99% chance. These odds are 4% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 2% for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main threat to Puerto Rico will be heavy rains--up to eight inches in isolated areas. Earl's rains, in addition to causing flooding and dangerous landslides, will also help alleviate drought conditions that have affected many of the islands this year.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 3 knots--put is probably higher than that, based on the fact that the northern portion of Earl cloud pattern is ragged. Further evidence of this is the fact that Earl's eyewall had a gap in its west side, according to the latest report from the Hurricane Hunters. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's GFDL model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, 64 kt and above) are predicted to stay off the coast and tropical storm force winds (light green colors, 34 knots and above) are predicted to stay off the U.S. coast, but affect the coast of Canada. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Friday, September 3, 2010, as produced by the 8pm EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from North Carolina to New Jersey.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters, and is only of concern to shipping interests.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Over in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone activity is ramping up, with two named storms expected to affect land this week. As is typical in a La Niña year, these storms have developed close to mainland Asia, and don't have a lot of time over water to intensify into strong typhoons. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which is expected to hit Okinawa today and recurve northward into Korea on Thursday. It now appears the Kompasu will not have major impacts on China's largest city, Shanghai. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Asta:

You are mistaken.
LINK- NOAA KATRINA FORECASTS

"...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED
AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS
SHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER. THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR."


Link


That was August 27...Katrina emerged off of FL on August 26 and the initial cone BARELY had LA in it. All this is visible in the graphics archive. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml
2002. Asta
A storm is a system, not a point.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
A stadium effect starting to take place, when is recon?

It already has that stadium affect :P. Anyways, Recon will be in there at 8pm EDT to 2am EDT.
I'm already looking over here, south of the CV islands.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think it'll peak at 160mph before it undergoes an EWRC, should have another 24-36 hours before that happens.


Still thinking 145-150.. maybe 155.

As said, someone's got to say it won't make Cat 5.
2006. marmark
This is a good time to remind everyone that NHC average track forecast errors are 200 to 300 miles at days 4 and 5.
2007. Asta
Yesterday at the 5:00 advisory the NCH forecasted Earl's winds to be at 115 for this advisory. They always underestimate and are conservative in the forecasting the strength of a storm.
2009. kwgirl
Well time for me to go home to my dog. I will trust you all to keep an eye on Earl. See you tomorrow.
Looking for info on the islands it reached. Anyone have links or info please post. Thanks. This is what i have found so far

For some reason I'm willing to bet that Fiona is gonna be 200 miles off
2012. HarryMc
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Poll Time:
What chance do you think Earl has
of being a Cat5?

A: None

B: 20%

C: 50%

D: 80%

E: 100%

A
2013. Walnut
Quoting Asta:


Not good...
We have ourself a CAT 4 hurricane !!!
Looks to me like it might be heading to North Cackalacky
2016. srada
I see Fiona not as strong because Earl will cool down those waters and that might just make him a Cat 5 after this is said and done..
Quoting Jeff9641:


Fiona is moving WNW at the end of the run by the NHC. I think the track like the case with Earl will shift south on the next advisory just as the case was when Earl's first track came out.


NHC's track for Fiona is based somewhat on the track of Earl, as his outflow is supposed to smack her upside the head and keep her from getting too strong and jerk her around like a mid-western trailer park "hero", but without the wife-beater shirt and lukewarm PBR.
So, if Squirrely Early's track changes, Fionas will change too.
You are nuts!...the storm is days away..wake up


Quoting Cotillion:
I would not be surprised to see a TS Watch for NC later tonight/early tomorrow.
Quoting Cotillion:
I would not be surprised to see a TS Watch for NC later tonight/early tomorrow.
Quoting divdog:
try posting something constructive instead of ranting so much


Unfortunately he is right.
Quoting kwgirl:
I don't know why you watch them for weather. They do sensational reporting. I only hope Jim Cantore comes to Key West. it will guarantee a "NO Hit" LOL

See if they cover Earl too much what may happen is people may get anxious and start stocking up on supplies. That would leave less money to buy the Male Enhancement pills and Head-on garbage that are constantly being hawked during commercial breaks
Quoting yonzabam:


Yep. I've looked at the archive and they had it going into the panhandle after it emerged into the GOM. Sorry about that.


It's okay ;) You would've had to have been here...that changing track is permanently embedded in our brains!
2022. angiest
All right, for others watching on radar, are all of the mesocyclones being picked up in the eyewall actually eyewall mesovorticies?
Quoting Cotillion:


Still thinking 145-150.. maybe 155.

As said, someone's got to say it won't make Cat 5.
Nobody can say that for sure though the prediction says winds will reach 150mph just 6mph more and you have a cat 5
Is it just me or did the track shift west?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Why would I have you on ignore? I agree with you, there is a possibility Earl could peak as a 160 Category 5 hurricane before a EWRC.
Good thing most of the models keep this beast of shore,but then again we can not be so sure,we learned that with charley,and beach erosion with significant wave heights are still a possibility for the east coast with dangerous rip currents.
2025. Relix


There's no way I am feeling Tropical Storm winds here. Maybe a gust or so.
2026. unf97
I think we will very soon have Invest 98L. The new wave emerging from off the coast of Africa looks very impressive with a very nice ball of convection that has flared as this system seems to be already organizing fairly well.
Quoting winter123:
I'm already looking over here, south of the CV islands.


that wave train looks... ominous.
2028. alfabob
1995:

Almost guaranteed cat 5 by next DMAX, IMO.

The Tuesday 2am data point is like right in the first real "cat 5 sweet spot" and will be setting up a DMAX with the storm centered directly over a region that has a potential intensity rating of 150kts....so um...yeah...
Quoting Jeff9641:
So much for a season bust as so many on here have been preaching. 6 3 2 and still adding as Gaston looks to be gathering behind Fiona.


although still a LONG way to go to reach the 18 forecast. We're only at 6 now. Of course a long way in the season too.
2031. primez
You know what's crazy? Alex still had a lower pressure than Earl has right now.
2032. Asta
re:1990. Barefootontherocks

LINK
That cone keeps moving left...
Quoting GeauxGirl:



Hmmm...I seem to remember it a little differently, but I could be mistaken.


Yeah, VERY differently...as in it was supposed to recurve into Florida's panhandle. I went to bed Friday night, thinking that and awoke the next day to a NOLA track.
The part in bold is new:

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

They sound a little more certain that there will be some impacts.

This report from Aaron Soares
Neptune's Treasure, Anegada, BVI
re: Anegada logged at about 4:30pm.

"Our property: the dock is gone, Uncle Dean's dinghy & small boat are gone. The seas are breaking our sea wall and dumping on the restaurant roof. The felt paper on Dad's roof is gone and the seas are going to the back of the property next to the cottage. All other buildings there are OK.
The Hotel up the beach, 1/2 the dock is gone. Potter's roof is lifting/leaking and dock is almost gone. The ferry dock is under water. The cash & carry is under water as well and their rental cars are flooded inside. All of this is on the southern side of the island, so just imagine the northern side where the real [censored] is happening! :("
****Unofficial**** Latest GRIP DC-8 dropsonde reported 941 mb in eye.
Quoting Relix:


There's no way I am feeling Tropical Storm winds here. Maybe a gust or so.


whenever the bands hit, they'll come
2040. srada
Quoting marmark:
This is a good time to remind everyone that NHC average track forecast errors are 200 to 300 miles at days 4 and 5.


Exactly!! (SouthEastern NC)We will be 200 miles from the center of the storm per the advisory..and any deviation of 50 miles or more would probably put us in hurricane force winds..
Quoting Asta:
A storm is a system, not a point.



We track 'em by points though, not by the system.
NEW BLOG
Quoting StormW:
I have about 15 minutes before dinner.


thanks for the info! :P
2044. Asta
2045. marmark
My concern and can you imagine....Earl skirting all the way up the eastern seaboard? Everyone should be making preparations.
Quoting alfabob:



Future invest 98L should make it into the Caribbean with a track that far south.
Earl is like a nascar driver, he's making a leeffft tuuuuurrrn............. just kidding, wanted to make a joke.. have a wonderful day
2048. hydrus
Quoting RecordSeason:
1995:

Almost guaranteed cat 5 by next DMAX, IMO.

The Tuesday 2am data point is like right in the first real "cat 5 sweet spot" and will be setting up a DMAX with the storm centered directly over a region that has a potential intensity rating of 150kts....so um...yeah...
Do you have a link to the "sweet spot"? I am just curious. I would like to see just how warm the temps are there.
Quoting winter123:
I'm already looking over here, south of the CV islands.
I had been talking about this wave yesterday,but no one seemed to pay attention to it.I think this could go further south than Fiona or Earl.Gaston may very well be on his way.
What are the chances that Ny city will see Earl as a landfalling hurricane?
IMO the day 4 and 5 points for Fiona are concerning for the SE US Coast. Definitely some uncertainty about whether the high builds back in and where.

Doesn't take a genius to see a track to the west or wnw...the gap is almost gone and NW movement is not possible with this setup right now IMO
2055. JLPR2
Total storms: 6
Hurricanes: 3
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 2

Who thought we would reach this before September in early August? XD
Quoting portcharlotte:
You are nuts!...the storm is days away..wake up




It's Monday. It's nearly in line with it on Thursday. TS watches were released for Saint Martin 72 hours before Earl reached them.

So, it's not crazy. Didn't say it was going to happen, just 'not surprised' if it did.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
Nobody can say that for sure though the prediction says winds will reach 150mph just 6mph more and you have a cat 5
Is it just me or did the track shift west?


Didn't say it was for sure. Just a thought. Others think it will.
2057. will40
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Nobody can say that for sure though the prediction says winds will reach 150mph just 6mph more and you have a cat 5
Is it just me or did the track shift west?


just the lower part of it did
Quoting NOLA2005:


It's okay ;) You would've had to have been here...that changing track is permanently embedded in our brains!


So true. I remember distinctly the track moving further west with every update. It was like watching a train barreling towards a stalled car. Awful. I don't wish that on anyone.
Quoting NOSinger:


Actually.....not true....they had Katrina making a right turn back into the panhandle of Florida...east of Panama City...


Correct, they did not start predicting a NOLA hit til late friday night before the storm.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Hello bloggers,
Interaction between Fiona and Earl may be starting. Will they dance?

24 WVL animation shows her drawing closer to him. You can also see the large movements of atmosphere. Please click image for animated WVL through 2015 GMT today-RAMSDIS, flash


They're still over 1000 miles apart...need to close the gap a little before a real Fujiwhara can happen
NEW BLOG!!!
2062. Or4590
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think it'll peak at 160mph before it undergoes an EWRC, should have another 24-36 hours before that happens.


Predicting an EWRC is just plain stupid...
Earl looks as if he's about to greatly expand in size

Link
MY GOD LOOK AT ALL THE TROPICAL WAVE HERE...WOW
Storm, what rank did you retire at in the Coast Guard? I am Army and not as familiar with the Coast Guard rank system (if they are different then the Navy).

Second, I have been busy at Lockheed today and would like to know if the High Pressure system that is/was centered over West Virginia the last two days has intensified and moved south, north, east, or just decided to stay put?

Can you help before dinner?
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
IMO the day 4 and 5 points for Fiona are concerning for the SE US Coast. Definitely some uncertainty about whether the high builds back in and where.



After Receiving Batch 1

-Daniella
-Earl
-Fionia

It Appears Batch 2 is Starting to Make its Way Off Africa....

Quoting Alockwr21:
That cone keeps moving left...


ya...check out Earls footprints lat lon wise
a couple good webcams from Puerto Rico

http://www.comoestaeso.com/forums/
Quoting medicroc:
Earl looks as if he's about to greatly expand in size

Link
Agreed
Quoting shadoclown45:
What are the chances that Ny city will see Earl as a landfalling hurricane?


Dr. Masters blog has it at 2%
Quoting StormW:
I have about 15 minutes before dinner.

Oooh - what's for supper?
2073. TopWave
OBX needs to keep a close eye on this dangerous storm.
I never understand this. NHC and other forecasters seem to blindly follow models. Earl is clearly moving W or possibly a slight north component. So to have a 6 hour point due NW is completely insane. But I see it very often.

Quoting TexasHoosier:
Storm, what rank did you retire at in the Coast Guard? I am Army and not as familiar with the Coast Guard rank system (if they are different then the Navy).

Second, I have been busy at Lockheed today and would like to know if the High Pressure system that is/was centered over West Virginia the last two days has intensified and moved south, north, east, or just decided to stay put?

Can you help before dinner?


Coast Guard is the same ranking system as the Navy, there symbols are blue instead of black.
2076. shfr173
What effect if any will the low in GOM have on the future path of Earl?
Quoting angiest:
All right, for others watching on radar, are all of the mesocyclones being picked up in the eyewall actually eyewall mesovorticies?


Yes ... part of Earl's continuing strengthening. PR is still to get an increasing wind field and Earl is not quite yet at his closest brush with the island.
2% is pretty low I would put it around 10% IMO
Blowng harder end Gage gng from 30 durng lulls to 60 during squalls
2080. Asta
So only XTRP is different in the models and takes Earl into the GOM.. Why?
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/07-googlemaps.shtml
looken at the RAMSDIS I'd like to say this may be a 145-150 storm right now.
Quoting MsTekkie:


Woah... I'm sure the relatives of all the people who died from Katrina will send you a dollar for your expensive grass seed.

Seriously... Wow.

Tell it how it is +1
Quoting Asta:
So only XTRP is different in the models and takes Earl into the GOM.. Why?
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/07-googlemaps.shtml


It's the XTRAP... not really a model.
Quoting shadoclown45:
What are the chances that Ny city will see Earl as a landfalling hurricane?
I don't know about nyc, but looks possible. I do know, that if I lived in NC, I'd be stocking and boarding up and in a hurry.
I'd never looked at Rita's graphics before. But the NHC seemed to have a handle on it pretty early. At least with the actual landfall area in the cone abut 3 days out.



And started moving it NE of Houston on the morning of the 22nd.

2087. dader
Quoting Asta:
Northwest Atlantic - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
select the SST and the Trop Fcst Pts
Can you see why Earl will turn to follow Danielle?


Yes it looks pretty clear to me
Quoting primez:
You know what's crazy? Alex still had a lower pressure than Earl has right now.


Its not when you think of Alex's close proximity to land when at that pressure. ran out of ocean to expand
Quoting shfr173:
What effect if any will the low in GOM have on the future path of Earl?


None... I'm curious though what Fiona will do when she crashes into Earl. Perhaps have a baby and name it Gaston?

Sorry bad joke :P

Quoting Asta:
So only XTRP is different in the models and takes Earl into the GOM.. Why?
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/07-googlemaps.shtml

Asta, I believe the xtrap is not really a model...it's the line drawn from the current heading if the system stayed on course....
2091. Asta
Quoting KanKunKid:


We track 'em by points though, not by the system.

Yes- true, but for those observers who are not mets-who are in the path or a possible area of impact of a storm,
I think it is imperative to make clear the wide path of impact that a storm may have
so that the public can be prepared and not be taken unaware - just mho.
Quoting serialteg:


whenever the bands hit, they'll come


The winds have picked up substantially here in San Juan over the last 20 mins or so. I don't know how strong they are but I heard the first metal thing crash outside (maybe someones furniture or a sign). The rain is also very heavy.
Quoting KanKunKid:


NHC's track for Fiona is based somewhat on the track of Earl, as his outflow is supposed to smack her upside the head and keep her from getting too strong and jerk her around like a mid-western trailer park "hero", but without the wife-beater shirt and lukewarm PBR.
So, if Squirrely Early's track changes, Fionas will change too.


You must be very young to think that DV is humor. Please reconsider.
Quoting ringeaux:


Correct, they did not start predicting a NOLA hit til late friday night before the storm.


I remember that I was on the way back from Lowe's on Sat at about 2:00 pm with a load of shelving for my living room when they came over the radio with an emergency announcement that evacuation orders were likely to come out shortly. The storm when I left for Lowe's was going to Florida. That's how fast it changed.
2095. Asta
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Asta, I believe the xtrap is not really a model...it's the line drawn from the current heading if the system stayed on course....

Oh Right! Thanks!
Ha... look how Earl wobbled to avoid that island.
2097. Asta
Quoting dader:


Yes it looks pretty clear to me

Yep me too!
Quoting MrstormX:


Coast Guard is the same ranking system as the Navy, there symbols are blue instead of black.


Thanks. On his blog, his title is listed as
"GMCS, USCG (Ret.)" - I believe that is what it is. So I was curious as to the GMCS part. Wonder if that indicated he was a retired Master Chief - do you know?

Also, I bet Earl goes CAT 5 for while today and will fall back to a CAT 3/4 on Tuesday.

Still would like to know abou that Eastern US ridge and if it has moved more to the South or East, which would pinch off that shaky trough and really cause a lot of angst at the NHC....
wow, we're halfway into the season and still have newbies wondering "what that XTRAP model is"?

Yeesh.
Bridge.

Quoting winter123:
Ha... look how Earl wobbled to avoid that island.


that image is exactly why i dont use mimic for movenent or direction....bc it shows stuff like that...earl didnt go due north then due west then back sw to go around that island....mimic is good for looking at structure and eyewall replacements, maybe to help show a coc when an eye has not formed yet...thats it imo...

hows everyone doing this evening?..:)
If we get storm tracks heading up the east coast--you folks here can expect many beginner type questions. Please be gentle with them. LOL
Time: 21:15:00Z
Coordinates: 19.3333N 64.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 621.6 mb (~ 18.36 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,602 meters (~ 11,818 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 933.9 mb (~ 27.58 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 38° at 17 knots (From the NE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.9°C (~ 60.6°F)
Dew Pt: 6.1°C (~ 43.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)


934 mb!!!!!
Quoting TexasHoosier:


Thanks. On his blog, his title is listed as
"GMCS, USCG (Ret.)" - I believe that is what it is. So I was curious as to the GMCS part. Wonder if that indicated he was a retired Master Chief - do you know?

Also, I bet Earl goes CAT 5 for while today and will fall back to a CAT 3/4 on Tuesday.

Still would like to know abou that Eastern US ridge and if it has moved more to the South or East, which would pinch off that shaky trough and really cause a lot of angst at the NHC....


I believe GMCS stands for "Senior Chief Gunner's Mate", a certain ordinance group in the USCG.
Quoting errantlythought:
Bridge.



Please forgive my untrained eye, but isn't the break to the north closed off and the steering is to the sw? Am I looking at it wrong?
I don't think fionas gonna make it past the next 72hrs.
did they really just find 937.6?....wow
Quoting Claudette1234:
Time: 21:15:00Z
Coordinates: 19.3333N 64.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 621.6 mb (~ 18.36 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,602 meters (~ 11,818 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 933.9 mb (~ 27.58 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 38° at 17 knots (From the NE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.9°C (~ 60.6°F)
Dew Pt: 6.1°C (~ 43.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)


934 mb!!!!!


Don't get to excited, I learned yesterday that the NHC doesn't always take the lowest pressure recorded in a NOAA non-tasked flight.
Fiona will go West West West....

Quoting watchingnva:
did they really just find 937.6?....wow


hows it going u in richmond? ready for some gates to close?
can someone give me a link on the tropicalatlantic page that just shows the data?
Fiona is the most ragged exuse for a tropical storm i have seen... Other than Bonnie.
2113. Brennen
I again apologize for being new but can someone smarter than me tell me what that new line on the steering graphic on post #2100 means? Does that mean the weakness to the north has been closed off by the A/B ridge? I'm sorry, I'm trying to learn how to read these maps.
Quoting MrstormX:


Don't get to excited, I learned yesterday that the NHC doesn't always take the lowest pressure recorded in a NOAA non-tasked flight.


Even if no take lower, sure take less than 940mb, normali takes 3 or 4 mb more so aprox 938mb
Anyone in PR that can say if the winds are starting to increase?
One of NOAA's planes is in there..hit flight level winds 108 knots
(From between the S and SSW at ~ 124.2 mph) then the pressure plummets..down to 933.9mb, there was a 930 something on each side..WOW...
I feel duped.....

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


hows it going u in richmond? ready for some gates to close?


lmao!....itll definitely be interesting to see if the well spent money actually helps evac better...the gates come up to exit 205...i guess they want everyone to filter onto 295 up here...lol...
im actually southeast of richmond in extreme southeastern chesterfield county and prince george county.......i would have to deal with the folks "being smart" coming up rt.5, rt.10 and 460....it would def. be a madhouse if it were to happen...lol
2120. snotly
The ecmwf has the remnants of Fiona going through the Straits of Florida in 144 hours.
Quoting watchingnva:


that image is exactly why i dont use mimic for movenent or direction....bc it shows stuff like that...earl didnt go due north then due west then back sw to go around that island....mimic is good for looking at structure and eyewall replacements, maybe to help show a coc when an eye has not formed yet...thats it imo...

hows everyone doing this evening?..:)


The address is http://home.comcast.net/~herbwx/hurrican.html and the secret is that we have an extra terrestial base in our rain forest, El Yunque. They are very hepfull.
blog stopped?
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
If we get storm tracks heading up the east coast--you folks here can expect many beginner type questions. Please be gentle with them. LOL

Thanks SunnyDaysFla. I'm not new to the blog and usually a looker. I don't want to be stoned.
I live in the New London Ct area and can provide updates and pictures if earl comes a calling
Current conditions in San Juan

Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: NW 25 G 36 MPH
Barometer: 29.53"
Dewpoint: 77 °F (25 °C)
Heat Index: 83 °F (28 °C)
Visibility: 4.00 m
Earl is a very impressive hurricane wouldn't surprise me to see it hit Cat 5 briefly, now at 19.4N/65W in my estimation, basically wobbling from W/WnW imo, though it had commenced a NW motion earlier but that was probably just a wobbble due to RI.
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at 4:00cst
So tired of Stateside wx reports saying "Earl might be a bad storm for the US when it makes landfall"...It HAS made landfall in the US and BVI....living there, used to be a little torqued about being forgotten.
2128. jonelu
Quoting winter123:
I never understand this. NHC and other forecasters seem to blindly follow models. Earl is clearly moving W or possibly a slight north component. So to have a 6 hour point due NW is completely insane. But I see it very often.



I think that because what you are looking at is the very end of the more westerly component. It also appeared to slow down alittle and that because its finely feeling the trof. I think its safe to say we should see alot more NW over the next several hours...if not we will see another change in track.
Quoting jonelu:


I think that because what you are looking at is the very end of the more westerly component. It also appeared to slow down alittle and that because its finely feeling the trof. I think its safe to say we should see alot more NW over the next several hours...if not we will see another change in track.

the trough is still in the midwest
The Freight Train, and Namecasting continues!