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Category 3 Gonzalo Pounding Bermuda; Ana a Heavy Rainfall Threat for Hawaii

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:10 PM GMT on October 17, 2014

The winds are rising and huge waves are pounding Bermuda as powerful Category 3 Hurricane Gonzalo closes in with sustained 125 mph winds. Gonzalo is gradually weakening, thanks to wind shear that has risen to a moderate 15 knots and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) that have cooled to 28°C (82°F). However, Gonzalo is not weakening fast enough to spare Bermuda from a devastating strike by a major hurricane. Infrared and visible satellite loops on Friday morning showed that Gonzalo remained an impressive hurricane with a large area of intense heavy thunderstorms, good spiral banding, and solid upper-level outflow to the north. The appearance of the storm was somewhat ragged, with the storm stretched into an elliptical shape and the eye filled with clouds. But Friday morning data from the Hurricane Hunters during their 9 am EDT eye pass showed that Gonzalo remained a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with a central pressure of 947 mb and surface winds of 125 mph. With an eye 35 miles in diameter, Gonzalo's strongest eyewall winds were spread out over an area about 45 miles across.


Figure 1. Hurricane Gonzalo as seen from the International Space Station on October 16, 2014. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.


Figure 2. Gonzalo as seen by the Bermuda radar at 11:53 am EDT October 17, 2014. The eye was visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Forecast for Gonzalo
The 8 am Friday run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay a moderate 10 - 20 knots through Friday night as Gonzalo approaches Bermuda, and SSTs will cool to 27°C (81°F.) These conditions should drive some modest weakening, but it is likely that Gonazalo will be a dangerous Category 2 or 3 storm with 100 - 115 mph winds at the time of its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday evening. The latest suite of model runs has the hurricane passing over or less than 30 miles to the west of the island, which would put Bermuda in the strong right-front quadrant of the storm, potentially bringing them the strongest winds of Gonzalo's eastern eyewall. However, late morning radar and visible satellite images show Gonzalo taking a course more directly at the island or slightly to the east, which means that the island would be more likely to get the weaker west side of the eyewall. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards about 60 miles from the center, so Bermuda is almost certain to see hurricane-force winds, though. In their 11 am EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave Bermuda a 96% chance of sustained hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. In their 12:30 pm AST advisory, the Bermuda Weather Service called for elevated locations on the island to see sustained winds of 105 - 125 mph (90 - 110 knots) gusting to 160 mph Friday evening. Seas were forecast to be 30 - 40 outside the reef, and 4 - 7 feet inside the reef.

Gonzalo is also a threat to Newfoundland, Canada. Although the hurricane will likely be declared post-tropical on Saturday, it will still have Category 1 strength winds when it makes its closest pass by Southeast Newfoundland, predicted to occur between 5 am - 8 am EDT Sunday by the 00Z Friday runs of the GFS and European models. In their 11 am EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave Cape Race, Newfoundland a 64% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 5% chance of hurricane-force winds. Heavy rains from ex-Gonzalo are likely to be the main threat to Newfoundland.


Figure 3. Road washout at Bermuda International Airport from Category 3 Hurricane Fabian after it struck on September 5, 2003. Image credit: J.G. Howes.

Bermuda's hurricane history
Ten major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger intensity have tracked within 75 miles of Bermuda in records dating to 1899. Two of these were Category 4 storms, the most recent of which occurred on September 13, 1948. The most recent Category 3 was Hurricane Fabian of 2003, the only hurricane to get its name retired exclusively because of its impact on the island of Bermuda. Fabian's eye passed just 14 miles (23 km) west of Bermuda on September 5, 2003 when the storm was a 120 mph (180 km/h) Category 3 hurricane. The eastern eyewall with the hurricane's strongest winds moved over the island, resulting in a direct hit; however, as the center did not move over the island, Fabian did not make landfall. According to the NHC final report, Fabian did $300 million in damage, making it the most expensive hurricane ever to hit the island. Fabian was also the first hurricane since 1926 to kill people on Bermuda; four people died when a storm surge swept over the causeway connecting the airport to the rest of the island, washing their car into the ocean. That causeway was replaced by a temporary bridge, which has remained to this day--and is of particular concern for Gonzalo's impact.

Bermuda links
Current conditions
Bermuda radar
Port of Bermuda webcam
Storm chaser Jim Edds is providing Twitter updates from Bermuda for Gonzalo


Video 1. Storm chaser Jim Edds was on Bermuda during Hurricane Fabian in 2003, and put together this 26-minute video on the experience. He is providing Twitter updates from Bermuda for Gonzalo, as well.

Strengthening Tropical Storm Ana a heavy rain threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Ana was at the verge of hurricane status again on Friday, with 70 mph winds. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed that Ana had its most impressive appearance yet, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms, plenty of low level spiral bands, and solid upper-level outflow to the north and east. Wind shear was light, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) warm, 27.4°C (81°F), which is about 1°F above average. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be light to moderate 5 - 20 knots, and ocean temperature would be warm, 27.5 - 28°C (81 - 82°F), through Saturday night. These conditions should allow Ana to slowly intensify until Saturday afternoon. Our top models for predicting hurricane tracks continue to trend farther to the west with their track for Ana, and now Kauai is the only main Hawaiian Island in the cone of uncertainty for a direct strike. In their 11 am EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast, Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) gave Lilue on Kauai on a 32% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds. Honolulu was given a 26% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 0% chance of hurricane-force winds. Even though it now appears that the islands will not experience major wind damage from Ana, heavy rains causing flash floods and mudslides are a major concern. Rainfall amounts of 8+ inches are possible on the Big Island, Oahu, and Kauai, according to the Friday morning runs of the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall for Ana from the GFDL model forecast made at 2 am EDT Friday October 17, 2014. The model predicted large areas of 8+ inches of rain would affect Oahu and the Big Island. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Related posts
Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes, my August 6, 2014 post
Climatic Atlas of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Central North Pacific (2008)

Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance 92E a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, a well-organized area of disturbed weather (Invest 92E) was located about 150 miles south of tAcapulco, Mexico on Friday morning, and was headed north to northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. With light wind shear, warm SSTs near 29.5°C 85°F), and a moist atmosphere, this disturbance is likely to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 80%, respectively. 92E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico on Friday and continuing into the weekend. As of Friday morning, 92E's heavy rain had begun to push onshore, as seen on satellite loops and Acapulco radar.

Moisture from 92E may move northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by early next week, contributing to the formation of an area of low pressure that could bring heavy rains to Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, as predicted by the GFS and UKMET models.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has more on the tropics in a Friday morning post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. pottery
Quoting 996. DevilsIsles:

Bermuda here! Managed to get internet data on my phone. Blowing hard out of the west right now. I went out in the eye earlier saw a few downed trees. My house sits at the bottom of Trimingham hill in paget. I was in the lee of the SW winds earlier. I watched transformers blow lighting up the skyline at power lines we comprimised! 
I have been through 5 hurricanes in my life. Bermuda is unique, rarely a season goes by without us getting something. This one though is something special. 
Bermuda was settled by the English crew of a ship wrecked by hurricane, it was this event that inspired Shakespear to pen the play called the Tempest. The Islands increadible natural beauty paired with treacherous reef was named by sailors 'devils isles'. 



Good to hear you are good.
Quoting 987. Jedkins01:



Reminds me of Wilma, Wilma was worse on the backside in South Florida, windspeed and wind damage peaked on the backside of the eyewall in Wilma on the west coast and east coast of Florida. Windspeeds were in the 90=100 mph range at landfall on the front side, but it was the backside thep acked the category 3 level winds.

This isn't always true, it depends on storm structure and other factors. Its possible that the pressure gradient is a bit stronger on the southwest side despite having less intense convection because of high pressure rapidly building in. I know that's why Wilma was worse on the backside. Surface mesoanalysis showed that with strong high pressure building, in, isobars were more tightly packed on the west side of Wilma, even though it too had much deeper convection on the northeast side. Typically, pressure gradient is strongest where convection is the heaviest since its the intensification of the warm core from latent heat release that leads to the pressure drop, and thus intensification of the storm, and thus the strongest winds.

But that isn't always the case. Typically when its not the case, its usually because the cyclone is sheared or due to the other things like pressure difference between the low and approaching high.



Yes I was ready for 20-30 mph less on that half, but it was 20-30mph more. Lil dicey. That current cam is reminding me of it bigtime.
Link
1003. MahFL
The Ber cam went offline ?
1004. pottery
Quoting 1003. MahFL:

The Ber cam went offline ?
Yes.
Quoting pablosyn:
Sao Paulo, the largest city of Brazil had today your highest temperature ever recorded, 100,4 F. Still in Brazil the temperature reached more than 104 F in a lot of cities, with the peak of 109 F. The hottest day will be on Sunday.

And it isn't even summer yet!
Just waiting for that poor tree in the lower right corner to snap...winds still increasing...
Quoting 985. unknowncomic:

Hanna in the Gulf next week?


Quoting 988. BayFog:


Looks to be short-lived given its heading right into the coastal mountains of southwestern Mexico.

Next up: Vance.


Think Trudy could spawn a twin sister named Hanna down the road??
1009. ncstorm
Quoting 975. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

almost over now not much longer hour and half maybe till rains stop then winds diminish thereafter


The Royal Gazette
49 minutes ago · Edited
#Bermuda #Gonzalo NEWS UPDATE 11.24 pm
The Bermuda Weather Service reports west-northwest winds are rapidly increasing back up to hurricane force at this time. At Commissioner's Point, Dockyard gusts of up to 108 miles per hour are being recorded; at St. David's lighthouse there have been 97 mile per hour gusts; and gusts of 92 mph are buffeting the Causeway. Winds are expected to drop below hurricane force around 2 am Saturday, below 50 knots by 4 am then out of tropical storm force at sunrise. Dangerous sea conditions persist, however swell and wave direction become northwest.
The sound hasn't moderated much, but it doesn't look as though the wind's blowing as hard, at least based on how much easier it is to see those port lights.... maybe it's more of a wind shift than a wind moderation....
Quoting 987. Jedkins01:



Reminds me of Wilma, Wilma was worse on the backside in South Florida, windspeed and wind damage peaked on the backside of the eyewall in Wilma on the west coast and east coast of Florida. Windspeeds were in the 90=100 mph range at landfall on the front side, but it was the backside thep acked the category 3 level winds.

This isn't always true, it depends on storm structure and other factors. Its possible that the pressure gradient is a bit stronger on the southwest side despite having less intense convection because of high pressure rapidly building in. I know that's why Wilma was worse on the backside. Surface mesoanalysis showed that with strong high pressure building, in, isobars were more tightly packed on the west side of Wilma, even though it too had much deeper convection on the northeast side. Typically, pressure gradient is strongest where convection is the heaviest since its the intensification of the warm core from latent heat release that leads to the pressure drop, and thus intensification of the storm, and thus the strongest winds.

But that isn't always the case. Typically when its not the case, its usually because the cyclone is sheared or due to the other things like pressure difference between the low and approaching high.
Ill tell ya this we were in a hotel for Katrina, the eye passed over us and was calm for an hour but after that man the building began to sway after the eye passed. The north side wasn't bad. glass was breaking building was shaking like it was gonna collapse. scariest thing i ever been threw!
Well here we go, Bermuda making history with a successful radiosonde launch into the eye of Gonzalo:



This absolutely amazing, check out how insanely warm the profile is through the whole layer!

0 CAPE and a PW of 2.88 inches
1013. MahFL
Commissioner cam is definitely geting quieter.
Still seeing those winds on port Bermuda. just really amazes me to see the winds still blowing 9 hours later
Latest Conditions
At L.F.Wade Int. Airport
Recorded at 11:55 pm
Rain
Temp.:
24°C/76°F
Humidity:
96%
Wind:
W 81G98 KT
or 93G113 mph



Dang, still packing a powerful punch.
Quoting 1003. MahFL:

The Ber cam went offline ?


Did it get knocked out?
Quoting 1012. Jedkins01:

Well here we go, Bermuda making history with a successful radiosonde launch into the eye of Gonzalo:



This absolutely amazing, check out hoe insanely warm the profile is through the whole layer!

0 CAPE and a PW of 2.88 inches


Awesome!
St. Davids, Bermuda just recorded a gust to 144 mph!

Link
Quoting 1013. MahFL:

Commissioner cam is definitely geting quieter.


Wind reports are coming in worse at some locations on the backside, I wouldn't count on it just yet.
Quoting 1016. Articuno:



Did it get knocked out?


Probably. They wouldn't just have it go offline.
Quoting 1018. TropicalAnalystwx13:

St. Davids, Bermuda just recorded a gust to 144 mph!

Link


Thats an elevated station right?
Wow!! Seems pretty nasty out there, the folks of port bermuda did a good job with this livestream!!
1023. ncstorm
Mark Sudduth ‏@hurricanetrack 28m28 minutes ago

Wow! Back side now markedly worse than front here in Grotto Bay Resort area. Building really taking a bearing. Lots of baaaad noises!
Link

OFF TOPIC: An example for those never in a major
.
At 2:10 turn up the sound so it's extremely annoyingly loud, then up a full 2 more numbers after. To where you can barely hear yourself yell? Then your close to what a cat 3 sounds like. Minus the bassy rumble, crashes, and whirring moaning like noises. This was after the worst winds too of 125mph sustained which were right at daybreak. A little before 2:10 you see a man blow down that parking lot in less wind. I've been there and that is one super abrasive parking lot. Polar opposite of slick. He had road rash i guarantee. Extreme weather. This is also similar to what Bermuda might be dealing with now.

Added: this video does not show how bad it really was. Imagine.
Quoting 1014. bigwes6844:

Still seeing those winds on port Bermuda. just really amazes me to see the winds still blowing 9 hours later
Imagine a larger storm. In Irene we were west of the eye, and experienced TS force winds for more than 24 hours. Imagine a storm with hurricane force winds extensive enough for those enduring the eye to experience them for that long.... crazy.
BELCO: At 12:01 AM, BELCO reports that with the resumption of hurricane force winds, the number of customers without power has increased slightly to approximately 30,700 (about 100 more than an hour ago). This is the majority of customers.

At this time, BELCO would like to thank the community for your patience over the past week, as power was restored to about 26,000 customers, after 27,500 were left without power following Tropical Storm Fay. We are mindful that the 1500 customers who did not have power restored before Hurricane Gonzalo arrived will be feeling particularly frustrated. We assure you that BELCO will be doing everything possible in the days ahead to restore power as quickly as possible, helping the community to get back to normal. We will bring you regular updates on progress, including the arrival of CARILEC linemen from Barbados, British Virgin Islands and Dominica to assist with restoration. In the meantime, we urge everyone to continue putting safety first as the clean-up begins.
1027. ncstorm
S. FL Storm Chasers ‏@SFLSChasers 6m6 minutes ago

Matt here: We just received our highest gust yet of 135 mph, winds still sustained at 103 mph. We are about to retire to bed shortly.
Quoting 1018. TropicalAnalystwx13:

St. Davids, Bermuda just recorded a gust to 144 mph!

Link


Holy crap, it was probably the result of mesovortices or something like that. This is good observation proof of how wind varies a lot even in the eyewall of a hurricane.

This is partly why some areas get worse damage than others over short distances, although the real reason is more complicated than that when you consider all possible things involved, but in general, that applies.

Even if the station is elevated, 144 mph is, 144 mph. This is a category 2 hurricane after all. I'd say Gonzalo has had very impressive efficiency along its life, similar to when it was in the Virgin islands and produced amazingly strong wind gusts.
Quoting 1021. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thats an elevated station right?

Yeah, not sure how high up though.
Quoting 981. pottery:

I understand that surge is not as bad an issue when it comes up against a small island.
Flows around it rather than builds up against a long coastline.

But there must be surge with this one, and I would love to know how bad it has been.


Surge is not usually as bad with small islands but can be devastating if driven up into shallow sounds when the wind blows in at just the right angle. During Ivan here in Cayman which is not unlike Bermuda in shape size and depth of water surrounding it. We had a massive storm surge. My boss at the time had to get up onto his roof along with his family and dogs as his house was submerged to the roofline. Floating docks lifted right over their securing pilings which were 8-10 feet high. Boats were found hundreds of yards inland and some almost traversed the stretch of land from the north sound to 7 mile beach.
1031. will40
rain has picked up again on port cam
1032. docrod
Sigh - nearly a direct hit, the back side begins...... the eyewall giveth, the eyewall taketh. From an Andrew Kendall Florida person, Georges in the Keys, safe passage to the people of Bermuda.

eve Pottery - off to bed but will be up in 3 hours
Quoting 1026. Skyepony:

BELCO: At 12:01 AM, BELCO reports that with the resumption of hurricane force winds, the number of customers without power has increased slightly to approximately 30,700 (about 100 more than an hour ago). This is the majority of customers.

At this time, BELCO would like to thank the community for your patience over the past week, as power was restored to about 26,000 customers, after 27,500 were left without power following Tropical Storm Fay. We are mindful that the 1500 customers who did not have power restored before Hurricane Gonzalo arrived will be feeling particularly frustrated. We assure you that BELCO will be doing everything possible in the days ahead to restore power as quickly as possible, helping the community to get back to normal. We will bring you regular updates on progress, including the arrival of CARILEC linemen from Barbados, British Virgin Islands and Dominica to assist with restoration. In the meantime, we urge everyone to continue putting safety first as the clean-up begins.
Very likely we will send some people from our BEC to Bermuda as well to help with getting power restored.
Easy eye version. Whew. Hang on Bermuda !

More signs of the backside having even stronger winds in addition to proof from observations:

From the BWS facebook page:

"We are evacuating the observer's area as we have lost our storm shutter that faces south."

Link
Quoting 1032. docrod:

Sigh - nearly a direct hit, the back side begins...... the eyewall giveth, the eyewall taketh. From an Andrew Kendall Florida person, Georges in the Keys, safe passage to the people of Bermuda.

eve Pottery - off to bed but will be up in 3 hours

I want to stay up, but my body is "Tarred" [tired]. G' nite all...
1037. Grothar
I don't know. The Port Bermuda cam still looks and sounds like hurricane winds. It has been stronger the past few minutes.

Quoting 1028. Jedkins01:



Holy crap, it was probably the result of mesovortices or something like that. This is good observation proof of how wind varies a lot even in the eyewall of a hurricane.

This is partly why some areas get worse damage than others over short distances, although the real reason is more complicated than that when you consider all possible things involved, but in general, that applies.


Also the massive wind wall being pushed through homes can cause a rocks in the stream type effect increasing speed "rapid"ly. Least that's what I've read.
1040. pottery
Quoting 1032. docrod:

Sigh - nearly a direct hit, the back side begins...... the eyewall giveth, the eyewall taketh. From an Andrew Kendall Florida person, Georges in the Keys, safe passage to the people of Bermuda.

eve Pottery - off to bed but will be up in 3 hours

Yeah, I'm gone to bed as well.
1041. ncstorm
Mark Sudduth %u200F@hurricanetrack 1m1 minute ago

Time to evacuate in to my bathroom and not for the usual reason. Worried about doors and walls!

S. FL Storm Chasers %u200F@SFLSChasers 5m5 minutes ago

Matt here: We are moving ourselves to the furthest interior room right now, along with most of our gear.We are concerned about the house now
1042. pottery
Quoting 1030. Saltydogbwi1:



Surge is not usually as bad with small islands but can be devastating if driven up into shallow sounds when the wind blows in at just the right angle. During Ivan here in Cayman which is not unlike Bermuda in shape size and depth of water surrounding it. We had a massive storm surge. My boss at the time had to get up onto his roof along with his family and dogs as his house was submerged to the roofline. Floating docks lifted right over their securing pilings which were 8-10 feet high. Boats were found hundreds of yards inland and some almost traversed the stretch of land from the north sound to 7 mile beach.


I read about that!

Terrible.

I don't know what the surge at Bermuda was tonight.
We'll know tomorrow.

Stay safe, all.
Quoting 1018. TropicalAnalystwx13:

St. Davids, Bermuda just recorded a gust to 144 mph!

Link


WHEW that is hauling. PS>We need the name of their wind gauge so we can pass them out to all.
The buoy in Bermuda didn't make it through the backside of Gonzalo.
Quoting 1027. ncstorm:

S. FL Storm Chasers %u200F@SFLSChasers 6m6 minutes ago

Matt here: We just received our highest gust yet of 135 mph, winds still sustained at 103 mph. We are about to retire to bed shortly.


How could they go to bed in that? I stayed up for almost 24 hrs straight and only ate 2 meals during Hurricane Frances and Jeanne when they came through Central Florida, and that wasn't nearly as impressive as this. If I'm going to be experiencing a hurricane at home or chasing one, I'm not going to sleep as long as the impacts are still going strong. Heck I'll cover strong cold fronts and weak tropical storms almost all night.
1046. AztecCe
Total Depressions: 22
Total Storms: 21
Hurricanes: 15
Major Hurricanes: 9
Wow this is the little web cam that could! Amazed it's still up.
Quoting 1042. pottery:
I don't know what the surge at Bermuda was tonight.
We'll know tomorrow.

Stay safe, all.


The only surge model I could find on it was expecting .5m. Which I didn't mention the last few days since NHC said up to 10ft & history has shown it could be that bad. All the verification on that site leads to dead links. Even the Buoy around there has a water level link that didn't work.
1049. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, not sure how high up though.
I imagine it's St. David's Lighthouse. I visited it and saw the anemometer mounted to a mast that was attached to the rail that went around the the light. I believe it's at 55 feet. This isn't a very good picture but you can see the mast on the rail. The lighthouse and point are noted for high winds on Bermuda.

BWS - Bermuda Weather Service

Lights are flickering...

WNW winds
Commissioner's point: 88 g 112 kt
St. David's 54 g 84 kt
Causeway 72 g 98 kt

BWS building taking a beating in these WNW winds... even with hurricane shutters we are feeling a breeze in the building. My office faces WNW, as does all operations of forecasters and observers. We are not as jovial as we were in the north side of Gonzalo.
1051. Grothar
The WC just mentioned that there was serious concern about surge in the northern part of the island from Hamilton to the Naval Dockyard, now that the wind has shifted from the west. They mentioned a particular concern for the power plant which was in a relatively low lying area. This is a very long lasting storm!!


Quoting 1045. Jedkins01:



How could they go to bed in that? I stayed up for 24 hrs straight and only ate 2 meals during Hurricane Frances and Jeanne when they came through Central Florida, and that wasn't nearly as impressive as this.


I hear that Jedkins, I was just saying WHAAAAT to their words. Then read your comment like yeah ...now that's right. As storm chasers they may be desensitized somewhat lol Was pure adrenaline for me. I feel some just watching the live stream.
1053. ncstorm
Quoting 1045. Jedkins01:



How could they go to bed in that? I stayed up for almost 24 hrs straight and only ate 2 meals during Hurricane Frances and Jeanne when they came through Central Florida, and that wasn't nearly as impressive as this. If I'm going to be experiencing a hurricane at home or chasing one, I'm not going to sleep as long as the impacts are still going strong. Heck I'll cover strong cold fronts and weak tropical storms almost all night.


yeah I don't know..maybe they got good ear plugs....LOL

and with that I'm heading to bed myself..its been real WU..Prayers sent to Bermuda..tomorrow the sun will rise and the damage can be assessed..
1054. sar2401
Quoting violet312s:
Wow this is the little web cam that could! Amazed it's still up.
Anyone know what the view of the Commissioner's House webcam is? There seems to be a lot of lights for all the reported power outages.
Quoting 1045. Jedkins01:



How could they go to bed in that? I stayed up for almost 24 hrs straight and only ate 2 meals during Hurricane Frances and Jeanne when they came through Central Florida, and that wasn't nearly as impressive as this. If I'm going to be experiencing a hurricane at home or chasing one, I'm not going to sleep as long as the impacts are still going strong. Heck I'll cover strong cold fronts and weak tropical storms almost all night.

They changed their mind.

@SFLSChasers · 15m
Matt here: We are moving ourselves to the furthest interior room right now, along with most of our gear.We are concerned about the house now
1056. ncstorm
my last post..

The Royal Gazette
11 minutes ago · Edited
#Bermuda #Gonzalo NEWS
There will be little in the way of new information to post until the storm has moved past us later this morning and proper damage assessments can get underway at first light. The #RoyalGazette is going to suspend its coverage at this point to allow our staff -- who have been working since 4 a.m. this morning to ensure comprehensive coverage of Hurricane Gonzalo's approach -- to rest and regroup. We hope you all emerged from the storm relatively unscathed and our thoughts and good wishes are with you. Good night, Bermuda, from everyone here on Par-La-Ville Road.
Quoting 1018. TropicalAnalystwx13:

St. Davids, Bermuda just recorded a gust to 144 mph!

Link


Holy smokes! The winds on the backside are definitely worse with gonzalo.
anyone know when high tide will be again ??
1059. Grothar
Good night everyone. I hope Bermuda fares well. Even though they have been through so many, this one was especially bad. Hope the news is good in the morning.


We can talk about this one tomorrow.

Link

Is there other cams?
Quoting 1055. TropicalAnalystwx13:


They changed their mind.

@SFLSChasers · 15m
Matt here: We are moving ourselves to the furthest interior room right now, along with most of our gear.We are concerned about the house now


Interesting, I would naturally think damage really has probably been worse on the backside when you consider that the change in wind direction adds stress in addition to the winds being stronger. Hopefully everyone stays safe there.

I really hope nobody get caught off guard and stayed in the eye too long.
Bermuda's strongest hurricane seems to be October 22, 1926. Wind gusts were reported as high as 143 kts (165 mph) The eye passed directly over Bermuda just after noon. I cannot find a pressure reading for this storm.

1926. October 22. Havana-Bermuda Hurricane direct-hit, Category 4, winds of 114 mph (190 kph). It killed 88 in Bermuda, damaged or destroyed 40% of all buildings and caused $100 million in damages. It was one of the most powerful hurricanes in Bermuda's history. Among the buildings severely damaged was Elliot School, opened in 1848 and the Opera House in Hamilton. When it passed directly over the Island, there were wind gusts of up to 143 knots. The centre passed over Bermuda just after noon. It was most eerie and the water in the Camber was flat calm. Then the winds came in from the opposite direction and the anemometer registered 138 mph before it broke. The hurricane had an onset of torrential rain and winds from the southeast, but most of the damage occurred after the eye had passed over Bermuda and the winds came from the northwest. Elsewhere, banana trees by the thousands were destroyed, fields of lily bulbs submerged beneath the tremendous downpour, and the famous, ancient cedar at Old Devonshire Church used as a belfry fell down. The hurricane was ultimately responsible for a total of 738 deaths, including 650 people in Cuba. Two Bermuda-based British Royal Navy warships, the Calcutta and the Valerian sank and the 88 who died during this storm were all sailors and officers onboard the Valerian.
Quoting 1058. whitewabit:

anyone know when high tide will be again ??


5:17 a.m. for St. Georges according to the BWS' marine forecast.

I am stunned that this web cam is still up.
I understand CUC from The Cayman Islands will helping with the restoration of power in Bermuda , They sure helped us with power restoration after Ivan 04, some of the nicest guys I ever met were from Bermuda , hang in there!
Ugh TWC switched over to entertainment junk. I was enjoying their coverage.
Gonzalo has been one nasty hurricane!
Quoting 1066. wxgeek723:

Ugh TWC switched over to entertainment junk. I was enjoying their coverage.


Totally embarrassing.
Quoting 1068. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Bermuda just needs to hang in there a little while longer...looking at Port Bermuda webcam it looks like the winds and rain are beginning to wind down.
Quoting 1069. AllStar17:



Totally embarrassing.


Not surprising though... that's what they are sometimes
000 WTNT63 KNHC 180357 TCUAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1200 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 ...1200 AM POSITION UPDATE... ...BACK SIDE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO AGAIN LASHING BERMUDA WITH SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE BERMUDA AIRPORT REPORTED SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 93 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 113 MPH...181 KM/H. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 144 MPH...232 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE AT ST. DAVIDS NEAR THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/H AND A GUST TO 129 MPH...208 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF 1200 AM AST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 64.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting 1014. bigwes6844:

Still seeing those winds on port Bermuda. just really amazes me to see the winds still blowing 9 hours later



Yeah LONG time to be in that kinda wind. How about when Wilma stalled on coast of Mexico for what 33 hours?@155? eek. I believe somewhere that was close to the number.
An account of the 1926 Bermuda hurricane at the very bottom of the page.

"Unfortunately the pen (of the barograph at Paget) was a bit sluggish. While it registered at 8 a.m. the 22nd the same as the standard barometer at Prospect, it lacked 8 or 10 points of reaching the minimum at noon."

Prospect did record 28.58" at 11 a.m. which was 90 minutes before the center of the eye. The duration of the calm of the eye was 40 minutes at Bermuda.

Would have been great to see the video feeds for that, at high noon!
Quoting 1070. Huracan94:


Bermuda just needs to hang in there a little while longer...looking at Port Bermuda webcam it looks like the winds and rain are beginning to wind down.
yeah slow process for now should improve significantly shortly
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/08L/imager y/wv_lalo-animated.gif

You're almost out of the woods my Bermudian friends. :)


Getting close to somewhat reduced winds, hang in there Bermuda. Was a direct hit.
the roar is quieting now its nearing the end
The upper-level configuration is currently still fairly divergent, so Gonzalo is not weakening quickly. At least for now.
What's amazing to me is that the radar hasn't had an outage through this entire storm. We had a radar outage here in Tallahassee from our cold front event on Wednesday, which while it was a pretty big weather event around here, is nothing in comparison to this in Bermuda.

Also good news is, winds on the obs are finally decreasing now as we would expect.
Quoting 1081. KoritheMan:

The upper-level configuration is currently still fairly divergent, so Gonzalo is not weakening quickly. At least for now.


Yep. Still a 110 mph hurricane.
There is no sleep like when you finally are able rest after living through one of these events. zzzzzz x100.
Soon Bermuda.
Quoting 1085. TheEyeiscalm:

There is no sleep like when you finally are able rest after living through one of these events. zzzzzz x100.
Soon Bermuda.


Sleeping in the dark is no fun though dude.

No joke. I been thereeeee
Quoting 1085. TheEyeiscalm:

There is no sleep like when you finally are able rest after living through one of these events. zzzzzz x100.
Soon Bermuda.


Can't speak for people who have been in hurricanes but I suppose it's the same effect with overnight severe weather outbreaks.
"Finally" doesn't mean like right now for them. Personally 3-4 hours after Wilma and Andrew...I ZzZz'd I had been up a super long time, I kinda had to force myself to lay down. After that I blacked out. Didn't matter if dark. LOL They have some lights though.

Link
Quoting 1073. TheEyeiscalm:




Yeah LONG time to be in that kinda wind. How about when Wilma stalled on coast of Mexico for what 33 hours?@155? eek. I believe somewhere that was close to the number.



Yeah, just think how many hours of winds they had. Also, the category 4 eyewall stalling on the coast led to an absolutely insane rainfall total there of 62.05 inches in 24 hrs at the The Isla Mujeres observation in Mexico near the landfall!

Its hard to comprehend how much rain that is. That's a years worth of rain in 24 hrs in a rainy climate like SE FL, Tallahassee, or New Orleans.

Link
Well.... I think I'm going to bed at midnight (in 20 minutes). I've been on this blog since 1 p.m. My thoughts and prayers are with bermuda and I hope they got through it OK. Hope my posts were informative and I hope to do more blogging on here no matter what weather comes our way. Good night everybody!


It looks like it's over.... the Bermudians' hellish nightmare of this hurricane.... over. Now we wait and see what they'll find at first light.
Quoting 1090. Jedkins01:



Yeah, just think how many hours of winds they had. Also, the category 4 eyewall stalling on the coast led to an absolutely insane rainfall total there of 62.05 inches in 24 hrs at the The Isla Mujeres observation in Mexico near the landfall!

Its hard to comprehend how much rain that is. That's a years worth of rain in 24 hrs in a rainy climate like SE FL, Tallahassee, or New Orleans.

Link


Hurricane Flora in 1963 says hello:

Quoting 1086. KoritheMan:



Sleeping in the dark is no fun though dude.

No joke. I been thereeeee


Its not sleeping in the dark for me that is bad, its sleeping with No A/C in summer after a storm hits. Talk about miserable
000 WTNT63 KNHC 180454 TCUAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 ...100 AM POSITION UPDATE... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO STILL HITTING BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS... DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE BERMUDA AIRPORT REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 71 MPH...113 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 89 MPH...143 KM/H. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 66 MPH...107 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 114 MPH...184 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE AT ST. DAVID'S NEAR THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 70 MPH...112 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 105 MPH...170 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 64.1W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS WILL BE THE LAST HOURLY POSITION UPDATE ISSUED ON GONZALO. AN INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Last hourly update. Good night everyone! It's almost over Bermuda. Hang in there! :)
Quoting 1095. Hurricanes101:



Its not sleeping in the dark for me that is bad, its sleeping with No A/C in summer after a storm hits. Talk about miserable


That's kinda why I've adopted the "chase **** away from home" mentality, ya know.
Quoting 1094. KoritheMan:



Hurricane Flora in 1963 says hello:




Flora was over 4 days or even longer that the 100 inches of rain occurred (nothing to knock about it), but compared to 62 inches in 24 hours, it does not compare
In the words of Ahnuld: I'll be back. As in around 1 or 2 tomorrow.
Quoting 1098. Hurricanes101:



Flora was over 4 days or even longer that the 100 inches of rain occurred (nothing to knock about it), but compared to 62 inches in 24 hours, it does not compare


Fair enough. I guess I didn't notice that in Jed's post. >_>
Heres something interesting. It seems as if record sea temperature anomalies in the northeastern pacific have calmed down over the past month and a half.

Here is September 1st:


and here is October 16, yesterday:


These positive temperatures anomalies have been present for the extent of the current drought in California, so the cooling of the northeastern Pacific might be benefiicial for drought on the U.S. west coast. but it might not, so who knows
Quoting TheEyeiscalm:
"Finally" doesn't mean like right now for them. Personally 3-4 hours after Wilma and Andrew...I ZzZz'd I had been up a super long time, I kinda had to force myself to lay down. After that I blacked out. Didn't matter if dark. LOL They have some lights though.

Link


After Wilma, I think i slept like 24 hrs...lol

hoping for good news in first light
but I am sure there is some damage
we will see in the late am I guess
well im off to bed. i wanna see what happen to Bermuda bright and early so see u guys later and good night bloggers
the port cam appears to show a quick end of weather more clearer image now
1106. geepy86
I'm amazed they still have power for the cam.
from nhc


The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda
Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been
reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International
Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are
inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at
St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable
1108. BDAwx
Quoting 1049. sar2401:

I imagine it's St. David's Lighthouse. I visited it and saw the anemometer mounted to a mast that was attached to the rail that went around the the light. I believe it's at 55 feet. This isn't a very good picture but you can see the mast on the rail. The lighthouse and point are noted for high winds on Bermuda.



That's correct. BWS staff gave me some stats on their AWOS after Fay.
1109. BDAwx
The NDBC site (Bermuda Esso Pier) on the north side of St. George's island seems to have observed a peak storm surge ~2.5feet and peak storm tide at ~3.3feet. It peaked at low tide so it had the effect of the tide just not going out. High tide coming back in about 2hours. That says nothing for any storm surge in Hamilton Harbour or on south shore which could have been significant.
1110. sar2401
Quoting yankees440:


After Wilma, I think i slept like 24 hrs...lol
You'll be amazed at how time changes your ability to tolerate those events. I was part of the mutual aid team for the Oakland Hills Firestorm in 1989. Between evacuations, rescues, and then the search for the missing, I slept 4 hours in 3 days, and most of that was standing up. After I finally got in my own bed, I slept 18 straight hours, got up, and went to work. I was 43 then.

I was one of the Skywarn amateur radio net controllers for the 2011 tornado outbreak here in Alabama. I was awake for almost 24 hours with that. I slept for 24 hours and really wasn't capable of doing much but sitting and staring at whatever was on TV for the next 2 days. I was 65 then. The years really do creep on you.
Quoting ncstorm:
S. FL Storm Chasers %u200F@SFLSChasers 6m6 minutes ago

Matt here: We just received our highest gust yet of 135 mph, winds still sustained at 103 mph. We are about to retire to bed shortly.


Unless they are positioned in a structure about 100 feet AGL, they are certainly over-estimating the winds they experienced-not atypical with storm chasers. There have no doubt been some intense winds experienced on the island, but the winds recorded at the airport are more representative of the true winds at 10 m, which has also been VERY impressive!

1112. abcdeer
Ana's eye
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS TRUDY QUICKLY INTENSIFIES...
...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 98.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE TRUDY MAKES LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
Tropical Storm TRUDY
2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 18
Location: 16.2°N 98.8°W
Moving: E at 2 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

moving east at 2 mph
Looking at that gorgeous sunrise is hard to imagine what they just went through! It looks like the tug boats made it fine although I see what looks like a couple of sunken vessels just to their right.
Amazing that the cam survived and its giving us such good video.

And thanks to the person that was panning the cam and getting those close up shots . Good show!
Quoting 1117. tropicofcancer:

Looking at that gorgeous sunrise is hard to imagine what they just went through! It looks like the tug boats made it fine although I see what looks like a couple of sunken vessels just to their right.
Amazing that the cam survived and its giving us such good video.


What a difference a few hours makes. I saw this on Twitter.

Hope you've been well Trop!
1119. Sangria
Quoting 1117. tropicofcancer:

Looking at that gorgeous sunrise is hard to imagine what they just went through! It looks like the tug boats made it fine although I see what looks like a couple of sunken vessels just to their right.
Amazing that the cam survived and its giving us such good video.


1120. barbamz
Good morning folks, good morning Bermuda, good morning Port Bermuda Webcam!!

An hour ago we were lucky to witness this glorious sunrise!





Afterwards the cam assessed the damage: some sunken smaller boats in the marina, "our" familiar palm trees which don't look as good as before the storm, a toppled shed, a broken water pipe ... well, the rest of the strongly built houses are still standing ... Hope it isn't too bad on other parts of the island!













All screenshots above are enlargeable if you click them.


cold weather moving east


Pedestrians walk past a shop boarded up with storm shutters in Hamilton
Trudy has a warmspot?
Link


Tight consensus here.. :P
If you go to here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsKPEx3fgHU&featur e=youtu.be and move the slider back , you'll be able to see the video of the screen shots barbamz posted before.
Good morning Aug and BFF! all is well.
Quoting 1123. PolishHurrMaster:

Trudy has a warmspot?
Link

It appears that Trudy has made landfall. It'll continue to be a heavy rainfall threat.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of 2:00 or 3:00 this afternoon the ISS should be passing over the remains of Gonzalo. Hopefully they'll catch it on one of the live streams. Even if it's no longer a major threat it should still make for beautiful viewing from an aesthetic standpoint.  (I think it passed over Ana during the night and I don't think there will be a daylight flyover. Not sure about that, though.)

Just FYI.
Thoughts and prayers to the residents of Bermuda - in the wake of your double-hit Hurricanes FAY and GONZALO.

Good luck with your recovery - and dealing with the hurricane aftermath.

It is amazing, the pictures (posted on here) of the sunrise, on the morning after the hurricane.

After a direct hit from Gonzalo, and a stormy night .... signs of hope ......
1130. barbamz

RAW collection of videos from last night.


Next week Gonzalo may pay me a visit in Southwestern Germany!

Source wetteronline.
wonder if the Euro 144 hour storm might not be subtropical if it develops the way Euro shows. It looks fairly symmetric, and pressures into the 980s.

1132. barbamz
Very sad news from the Himalayan Ex-Hudhud-disaster:
Nepal Annapurna: Climbing disaster toll reaches 39
BBC, 18 October 2014 Last updated at 09:15 GMT
Hurricane Gonzalo has been one extreme storm from its formation east of our islands to its track into the North Atlantic making direct Landfall over Bermuda... My heart goes out to those who have been adversely affected by this Hurricane especially in Bermuda. My prayers go out particularly to those who were already hard hit by Fay.

There’s hardly any tropical weather precedent like a one –two tropical system storm punch in a short order of time.
Incredibly Hurricane Gonzalo is still generating some swells on our east coast on the island of Dominica –(not the Dominican Republic, though they are also getting swells). Satellite imagery also seems to show that the outflow from Gonzalo continues descending just east of our islands. Having seen much of the footage (Port Bermuda cam has been excellent) thus far and radar imagery overnight, I must say, that the utterly raw fury of Mother Nature-is totally astounding and fearsome…
Hurricane Gonzalo from its initial Cat1/2 impacts in the Caribbean to its prolonged assault and battery of Bermuda will go down in my view as one of the most intense, robust, severe and powerful North Atlantic land-falling hurricanes of recent history. As the Day light continues to unfold -revelations of its true fury over Bermuda will become clearer.
The ACE for the season may not have been the highest among the more recent active years, however in terms of active land-falling storm tracking potential & impact activity, 2014 has already attained a very high rating. Gonzalo in will definitely go down in my books as one of the most impressive North Atlantic land-falling hurricanes!
God's Blessings to All!




1134. barbamz
Great Gonzalo-timelapse Oct 13-17 from NASAEarthobservatory!

Updating my blog I ran across a youtube video that answered the question we had yesterday about the white van at the port as the storm was moving in. It was the ABC news crew.
1136. hydrus
Quoting 598. bappit:


Bermuda tree frogs. The wind is not that loud. From Bermuda4U:

"They live in damp spots amongst vegetation, but at night emerge from their hiding spots and climb up trees. You’ll certainly hear them but will be extremely lucky to see one.

The sound (gleep gleep) is of the males attempting to attract females. An individual frog produces a short two-tone whistle, consisting of a brief note of 2 kHz followed by a louder and longer one of around 3.5 kHz. The call is repeated up to 60 times each minute. Locals are accustomed to the chorus and many don’t notice it. It’s very audible to visitors though."
Gleep, Gleep Gleep, Gleep...:)
Quoting 1131. EdMahmoud:

wonder if the Euro 144 hour storm might not be subtropical if it develops the way Euro shows. It looks fairly symmetric, and pressures into the 980s.



Nope, that would be non-tropical. Looks like the first significant coastal storm of the season for the Northeast US.

On that note, last night I made a new blog entry, which I hope to keep updated during the late fall and winter season, to discuss weather events for the Northeast, especially potential storms like this. Anyone who is from the Northeast or who has an interest in our fall and winter weather should feel free to stop by!

Link
It's pretty cool to check out wind observations for places on the Island.

Between around 9:30-10:15pm the winds drop to about 10-15 mph or so while the eye was passing over the area.
Then the wind go back to 80-100 mph around 10:30 pm as the back side of the system moves over the Island.



hurricane in the northeast!!
Quoting hurricanes2018:


hurricane in the northeast!!


That low comes off the land/eastcoast (Virginia/Maryland) and then quickly spins up.
I can't see it happening (not a tropical system).
Breaking news that is great news from Bermuda:

Police confirm there was no loss of life, and said early reports from the hospital indicate that while there were minor storm-related injuries, there were no critical injuries due to Gonzalo

Link
Quoting 1136. hydrus:

Gleep, Gleep Gleep, Gleep...:)


Damn frogs stole my moves!

Good to hear there was no critical injuries or deaths last night.
From BERNEWS.com
Live Updates/Photos/Videos: Hurricane Gonzalo
October 18, 2014 | 184 Comments

Link
[Updating] We set up this live blog in advance of Tropical Storm Fay, and we will keep it going since we are still updating on Fay, as well as on watch for Hurricane Gonzalo.

Update Sat, Oct 18, 6.30am: Hurricane Gonzalo is now moving away from the island after battering us for hours. As of 6am, NHC has Gonzalo as a Category 2 with max sustained winds of 105 mph, located 190 miles NNE of us, moving at 22 mph. BWS Hurricane Watch downgraded to Tropical Storm Warning. There are over 30,000 customers without power, which is the vast majority of the island. Damage is expected.
Quoting 1130. barbamz:


RAW collection of videos from last night.


Next week Gonzalo may pay me a visit in Southwestern Germany!

Source wetteronline.


Looks like it will get wetter there next week ;-)
DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??
We'll have to wait to get full damage reports from the more windward/waveward parts of Bermuda before declaring everything okay, of course, but judging from articles appearing on Bermuda's local news agencies, much/most of the island looks to have come through relatively unscathed. Folks are out driving, riding, and walking around--a good sign that at least some roads are passable, and photos show little to nothing in the way of true structural damage. IOW, despite what some were apocalyptically shouting yesterday, Gonzalo did not "destroy" Bermuda, nor did it "wipe it off the map", "sweep everyone out to sea", or "knock the island back to the Stone Age".

Some here were accused of "downplaying" Gonzalo yesterday when they noted in a completely objective and non-hyperbolic way that the elongated, dry air-entraining, clearly-weakening storm moving over cooler waters we saw approaching Bermuda quite obviously didn't pose the same threat as the symmetrical, strengthening Cat 4 buzzsaw we'd witnessed the day before. Yes, 110 mph winds are powerful and can be destructive, and I'm pretty certain we'll see pictures of some lightweight structures (porches, gazebos, steel buildings, sheds, and the like) heavily damaged or destroyed, some improperly prepared boats scuttled, many large downed trees, and a handful of wave-battered buildings. But, still, the pressure exerted from 110 mph winds is far less that that exerted by 145 mph winds--and Bermuda has some of the most stringent building codes on the planet, with every new building required to withstand winds of 110.

Bermuda has suffered through and survived dozens of tropical cyclones over the decades, just as it suffered through and will survive Gonzalo. A bit battered and beaten, yes. But alive and well nonetheless...
Quoting Stormwatch247:
DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??


Ivan also landfalled in Florida in 2004, does that not count because it was in the Panhandle?
1146. People were saying Bermuda was going to be "sent back to the stone age?" That's a bit excessive.
Quoting 1147. Sfloridacat5:



Ivan also landfalled in Florida in 2004, does that not count because it was in the Panhandle?


Ivan did wallop the FL panhandle! Official eye landfall was actually in Gulf Shores, ALABAMA. Yes, it should count, because Florida was slammed by 4 massive hurricanes in 2004.

Was actually looking for hurricanes that impacted the same area within 100 miles of a location.

Example: Lake Wales, located in inland central Florida, had the eye of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jeanne, pass directly through the city, giving them hurricane force winds in all 3 hurricanes! Unbelievable in one season 2004!!
1150. ricderr
Some here were accused of "downplaying" Gonzalo yesterday when they noted in a completely objective and non-hyperbolic way that the elongated, dry air-entraining, clearly-weakening storm moving over cooler waters we saw approaching Bermuda quite obviously didn't pose the same threat as the symmetrical, strengthening Cat 4 buzzsaw we'd witnessed the day before. Yes, 110 mph winds are powerful and can be destructive, and I'm pretty certain we'll see pictures of some lightweight structures (porches, gazebos, steel buildings, sheds, and the like) heavily damaged or destroyed, some improperly prepared boats scuttled, many large downed trees, and a handful of wave-battered buildings. But, still, the pressure exerted from 110 mph winds is far less that that exerted by 145 mph winds--and Bermuda has some of the most stringent building codes on the planet, with every new building required to withstand winds of 110.


but nea...you forget.....this is the blog of doom....if you're not blowing something out of proportion...you're not blogging right
Bermuda Gov. George Fergusson tweeted that police have reported no deaths or serious injuries and that damage has been extensive but not catastrophic.

That should put to rest any doubt that Bermuda is one tough cookie during a hurricane.

Bermuda will suffer damage in a storm...especially when it comes to trees and power lines. But that applies to anywhere.

It's the construction of homes, hotels and office structures that is beyond impressive.

America should take a few lessons from Bermuda's playbook and enact concrete based construction codes for coastal areas.

Compare Homestead, FL on the morning of August 25, 1992 to Bermuda on October 18, 2014...and the difference is plain to see.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
1146. People were saying Bermuda was going to be "sent back to the stone age?" That's a bit excessive.


Gonzalo was a strong system, but Bermuda doesn't have the storm surge issues found at most locations.
For the most part, they have well built structures that are well above sea level.

If Gonzalo would have made landfall on the Gulf Coast of the U.S. (as a CAT2/3 - that was previously a CAT4) it would have caused extensive damage from storm surge.