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Category 3 Cyclone Evan leaves Samoa, heads for Fiji

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:06 PM GMT on December 14, 2012

Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is finally done pounding Samoa and American Samoa, after spending two days meandering over the islands. Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan has killed two and brought heavy damage to Samoa. "Power is off for the whole country... Tanugamanono power plant is completely destroyed and we might not have power for at least two weeks," the Disaster Management Office (DMO) said in a statement. Satellite loops show a well-organized storm with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm will be a region with light wind shear of 10 - 15 knots and very warm ocean waters that extend to great depth, and could intensify into a Category 4 cyclone by Saturday, as it passes through the Wallis and Futuna Islands. On Sunday, Evan is expected to pass just north of Fiji. The GFS model shows that Fiji should experience heavy rains from Evan, but miss the core eyewall region with the strongest winds and highest storm surge. The storm will encounter decreasing ocean heat content on Monday, after it passes Fiji, and should weaken to a Category 1 cyclone. Evan is one of Samoa's most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The most famous and deadliest tropical storm to strike Samoa (in modern records) was that of March 1889, which influenced the balance of Western imperial power in the Southern Pacific.


Figure 1. People walk over a destroyed bridge in Samoa's capital Apia, Friday, Dec. 14, 2012, after cyclone Evan ripped through the South Pacific island nation. Phone lines, Internet service and electricity were down across the country, and the airport was closed. (AP Photo/Seti Afoa.)


Figure 2. The German corvette ‘Olga’ lies beached on Samoa following the cyclone of 1889. Photographer unknown.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Who heard about this... This infuriates me to almost want to commit acts of violence against them.

Shirley Phelps-Roper ‏@DearShirley
Westboro (Baptist Church) will picket Sandy Hook Elementary School to sing praise to God for the glory of his work in executing his judgment.

Anyone from that area able to counter-protest them?
Quoting AussieStorm:

He's used to driving overnight? I how long will it take for that drive?

Well that's the Strolling Bones concert finished.
Was a great concert. Also the big fight finished with a knockout.


yeah I enjoyed it... thanks. Love the Australian accent.

Well, the only main highway is I-95 to get to NYC from where we live. And during morning that highway gets soooo packed. He said he is living now so that he can have a full daytime drive. Then by night we would he approaching Georgia.
If he were to leave during the day, nighttime will make him be sleepy and we don't want that
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Who heard about this... This infuriates me to almost want to commit acts of violence against them.

Shirley Phelps-Roper ‏@DearShirley
Westboro (Baptist Church) will picket Sandy Hook Elementary School to sing praise to God for the glory of his work in executing his judgment.

Anyone from that area able to counter-protest them?


Nothing Westboro does surprises me.
Can't forget Virginia Tech either in 2007
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Who heard about this... This infuriates me to almost want to commit acts of violence against them.

Shirley Phelps-Roper %u200F@DearShirley
Westboro (Baptist Church) will picket Sandy Hook Elementary School to sing praise to God for the glory of his work in executing his judgment.

Anyone from that area able to counter-protest them?
It depends on where in Georgia and out of state ppl have to be very careful not to speed in Virginia but you can open it up a little down south so I he/she is cruisin and not wasting time stopping about 14 or 15 hours.

Edit: sorry quoted the wrong post


the tiny circle below the big circle is where I live

click for bigger pic
Quoting nymore:
It depends on where in Georgia and out of state ppl have to be very careful not to speed in Virginia but you can open it up a little down south so I he/she is cruisin and not wasting time stopping about 14 or 15 hours.


he has done that trip back and fourth 6 times this year so he knows
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


he has done that trip back and fourth 6 times this year so he knows
My comment was meant for Aussie.
Quoting nymore:
My comment was meant for Aussie.

sometimes I do write that and complains shower down on me...

FIY Aussie lives a little less than 10,000 miles away from the location here in CT.. pretty close
I'm pretty sure Evan is tracking south of guidance?? What you guys think?

Quoting ILwthrfan:
I'm pretty sure Evan is tracking south of guidance?? What you guys think?



yep...it night even make landfall there
Quoting ILwthrfan:
I'm pretty sure Evan is tracking south of guidance?? What you guys think?



A little but not a lot as time goes by though it may get worse

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yep...it night even make landfall there


Might make a run for a CAT four if that eye clears out which it appears to be doing. Next 12 hours could be horrendous.
Seems a little south. Might get another 10kts stronger before landfall or brushing it.

EVAN looks alot more together on this OSCAT then earlier.

Quoting Skyepony:
Seems a little south. Might get another 10kts stronger before landfall or brushing it.



landfall is not going to weaken the storm...would it???
After looking at older forecast tracks they (JWTC) had it closer to where it is now.
Seconds dot (24hr) is expected time to be closest to first bigger island, 3rd dot (36hr) is 2nd island. Really turned south & will be slowly heading out of hot OHC.
With the AO keeping the air locked, for now, near the arctic pole, will this lead to more ice growth in that region? ...sorry for the global warming type question.
You can see the eye on the top right of the radar imagery:

Quoting Civicane49:
You can see the eye on the top right of the radar imagery:



Eye looks open to the east.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Eye looks open to the east.


Yeah. The eastern eyewall looks ragged on radar imagery.
526. vanwx
Quoting Patrap:
We are altering the atmosphere on a Global scale. And that alteration, the increasing of Global Temps is changing the Storms in a way we are just now becoming aware of.

All the Global climatic models have UNDERPLAYED the warming. And the trend is that the atmosphere is changing at a much faster rate and that is altering the Dynamical paramaters that drive the Global Heat pump. Typhoons and Hurricanes take the heat from the tropical and temperate zones to the the Poles in a continuing regulatory way. The Balance is becoming more and more compromised by mans activities.

So we will continue to see these effects globally. And at a faster rate.

Hang on, the 21st Century will be a pivotal one of Global Climatic change.

The humongous size and bizarrely perfect hybrid hurricane-within-a-noreaster structure were among the aspects of Sandy which were extraordinary. For now it's not clear exactly what the physical connection would be between a warmer atmosphere and larger and/or hybrid storms, though there could be one and further study is merited.

Reflections on a surreal superstorm and the 2012 hurricane season


Hey Patrap,
I've been following the Christmas Bird Count...(it's how we used to follow seasonal weather)..do you have some link to the NOLA CBC?I searched but had no joy. Most counts are running at 45%; I was wondering if your earlier late showing species had finally made it.
TIA
527. vanwx
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
With the AO keeping the air locked, for now, near the arctic pole, will this lead to more ice growth in that region? ...sorry for the global warming type question.


With the warming one gets this cover of fresh water on the top that freezes up much warmer(-2deg C) but the water underneath is warmer and it melts out really fast in the spring.It also shelters the water from low temps. Ice is a great insulator. It gets really complicated if we talk about it more than this.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


landfall is not going to weaken the storm...would it???

There's a good chance it will weaken the storm since where the storm is making landfall is a bit bigger then samoa unless it crosses that area really quickly.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 16 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP AND VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 14.8S 179.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Deep convection persistent past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Eye visible in radar imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.5, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.2S 178.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.6S 176.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.4S 175.3E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Good morning. Looks like the SE is going to be in an active severe weather pattern for the next 5 days:

Day 1:



Day 2:



Day 4-8:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN
INTO CENTRAL/NRN LA AND EXTREME SWRN-WEST CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161100Z - 161230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SWRN-WEST CENTRAL MS BY 12Z.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
MORNING /BY 12Z/ ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH STORMS ADVANCING ENEWD INTO LA AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING SWRN-WEST CENTRAL MS BETWEEN 16-18Z. SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGEST LEWPS AND
LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODES WITH SOME SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...MILD/ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES /UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/ FOR MID DECEMBER ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 F ARE AIDING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
AT 10Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG
IN SWRN LA TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE MID-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN.
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY /SINCE 09Z/ SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL/
NRN LA. MEANWHILE...TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED SINCE 10Z FARTHER INLAND TO
THE W/NW OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM DEEP S TX /INVOF
HEBBRONVILLE/ NNEWD TO BASTROP COUNTY AND THEN NEWD TO THE NW OF
LFK.

CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS RECENT
INCREASE SHALLOW CONVECTION AND THE MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ARE
LIKELY THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPTICK IN TSTM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED BY 12Z OVER THE TX PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE THOUGH
SOMEWHAT WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER SW TX.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL TO EAST TX BY 18Z...WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN TSTMS WILL BE
LIKELY. STORMS SHOULD REACH SWRN-WEST CENTRAL MS BETWEEN
16-18Z...SUGGESTING THIS REGION MAY BE INCLUDED IN A WATCH. STRONG
SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SMALL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE SUGGESTS A LESSER THREAT FOR A TORNADO...THOUGH
THIS THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 12/16/2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Looks like the SE is going to be in an active severe weather pattern for the next 5 days:

Day 1:



Day 2:



Day 4-8:

Good Morning!..looks like that strong cold front WILL make it to central florida next weekend..lows in the 40's? lol..maybe colder than that inland..Christmas is getting closer
NEXT 4 THRU 8 DAYS IN THE SOUTHLAND...........ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 161016
SPC AC 161016

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-5...MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF A STRONG
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
DAY 4 /THURSDAY/...LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND SERN STATES DAY 5. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A STRONG
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM KS/OK THURSDAY INTO THE OH VALLEY
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SERN STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG A STRONG LLJ RESULTING IN
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL
DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK LAPSE RATES. DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EXPECT A LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY AND SERN STATES DAY 5. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NEAR-SFC AND
DEEP-LAYER FLOW...DAMAGING WIND MAY BE A THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS EWD.

..DIAL.. 12/16/2012
Damn that's a very small eye.


Loop





for more on the ships that were beached in samoa following the 1889 hurricane, the us navy has a historical web site with additional images and text

Link
Quoting docrod:
for more on the ships that were beached in samoa following the 1889 hurricane, the us navy has a historical web site with additional images and text

Link

Interesting that they got Olga off the beach. I would have thought it a total loss.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 550 AM UNTIL 100
PM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS FCST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS WW AREA...WHILE STRENGTHENING TO SVR LEVELS.
STG MID-UPPER WINDS -- E.G. 90 KT OBSERVED AROUND 6 KM AGL OVER LDB
PROFILER SITE -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
MEAN-WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE...SUPPORTING PREDOMINANT
QUASI-LINEAR AND CLUSTERED MODES...WITH LEWPS AND SMALL BOWS
POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...EDWARDS
Evan's landfall is imminent:

These showers and storms over E TX have come together pretty quick in the last hour or so, some will likely be severe soon:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Evan's landfall is imminent:


Yeah getting closer, Both islands will get Evan.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
632 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LEON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 AM CST

* AT 632 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CENTERVILLE AROUND 710 AM...
BUFFALO AROUND 715 AM...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 160 AND 191.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3105 9662 3140 9627 3161 9578 3160 9577
3163 9573 3156 9572 3153 9576 3132 9565
3127 9572 3123 9572 3121 9574 3116 9573
3113 9577 3109 9577 3108 9598 3099 9616
3088 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 1232Z 245DEG 43KT 3101 9646

$$
A visible animation of Tropical Cyclone Evan.
Peak Winds: 120mph
Gusts: 150mph
Moving: S 14 mph
Pressure: 953 hPa
Hundreds of Aussies brace as cyclone Evan heads to Fiji


People walk through debris in Samoa's capital Apia on Friday after cyclone Evan ripped through the South Pacific island nation. Source: AP
Three cold fronts are forecast to come through south Fla. from Tuesday through Christmas Day with the latter bringing the lowest temperatures...

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN FOR FIJI ON SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 12:07am on Monday the 17th of December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP.
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS
OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF
VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI
GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA,
VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [957HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 3 EAST OR ABOUT 90 KM WEST OF
CIKOBIA AND 95 KM NORTH OF LABASA AT 11:30 PM TONIGHT.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 21 KM/HR.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS
UPTO 165 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR
.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 30 KM
SOUTHEAST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 175KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LABASA OR
ABOUT 100KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI AT 12:00 PM TOMORROW AND 190 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR 90 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT
12 MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP:EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 180 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 240
KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 100
KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR
BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER
ISLANDS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 80 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR.
RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 55 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
85 KM/HR. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TODAY.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 35 NAUTICAL MILES
FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120
NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE CENTRE. ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Fiji on Severe Tropical Cyclone
Evan will be issued at or around 03:00am today.
On this day twelve years ago, Tuscaloosa, Alabama was struck by a powerful F4 tornado. Little did we know that a tornado of even greater magnitude would hit eleven years later.



Weird to have such a well formed core, yet no eye on visible.
Goodnight all, stay safe with the risk level today.
________________________________


Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN FOR FIJI ON SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 2:05am on Monday the 17th of December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS
OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF
VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI
GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA,
VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [950HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15 DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 8 EAST OR ABOUT 90 KM NORTHWEST
OF LABASA AND ABOUT 160 KM NORTHEAST OF YASAWA-I-RARA AT 13:30 AM
TODAY.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 23 KM/HR.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS
UPTO 185 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 60 KM
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 70 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI AT 1:30 PM TODAY AND 240 KM SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR 140
KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT 1:30 AM TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP:EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 185 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270
KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 110
KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR
BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER
ISLANDS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 80 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 55 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
85 KM/HR. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TODAY.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 35 NAUTICAL MILES
FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 150
NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE CENTRE. ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Fiji on Severe Tropical Cyclone
Evan will be issued at or around 05:00am today.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (950 hPa) located at 15.6S 179.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 11 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Organization has improved in the past 24 hours. Eye visible in radar imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with MG eye in CMG surrounding.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.9S 177.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.1S 176.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.8S 176.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Good morning, everyone, and good early morning, Aussie. Heavy thunderstorms here the past forty-five minutes or so and supposed to continue for quite a while. I do love thunderstorms.






And tornadoes expected in south 'Bama

Rainfall next 3 days



next 5



4pm today



7pm tonight




And 10 tonight, when the majority of the severe may be done. Heavy rain.

Beautiful here today BUT the front is coming this week..
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER
DEVELOPED LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES
FOR MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT.
wow there's your rain texas,stay safe over there....
Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward today as an upper short wave moves across the area. A few storms could become severe with the main threat being strong/damaging wind gusts. The area of highest risk this afternoon and this evening will generally be north of a line from Baton Rouge to Tylertown.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
853 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

TXZ199-200-213-161600-
MONTGOMERY TX-LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-
853 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND EASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM
CST...

AT 851 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED NEAR HUMBLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND OF STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGWOOD...HUMBLE...ALDINE...CLEVELAND...DAYTON.. .BARRETT...CROSBY...
SHELDON...PATTON VILLAGE...WOODBRANCH...ROMAN FOREST...SPLENDORA...
KENEFICK...PLUM GROVE AND DAYTON LAKES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3013 9476 2984 9504 2983 9553 3035 9515
3034 9468 3028 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 244DEG 33KT 3000 9523

$$
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Actually, just google up "Weather Modification" .. there's piles of stuff about it, companies that offer it, the on-going science, etc. I posted some links about it the other day ... but they are easy enough to find yourself.
You miss the point - wxmod posts pics of contrails, notes rain two days later, and claims it was caused by weather modification. That is the conspiracy theorizing.
ALOT of weather warnings out for the northern gulf states...........SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
LAZ023-024-161540-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA LA-
901 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
901 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF AIMWELL AT 900 AM CST...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CATAHOULA AND SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3192 9201 3193 9201 3194 9196 3193 9192
3195 9191 3199 9165 3177 9161 3173 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1500Z 260DEG 39KT 3181 9213

$$

MRM
Fort Polk
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI


Quoting Patrap:
Fort Polk
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI


whew strong stoms there huh patrap..stay safe ok
There are now 5 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
7-day forcast for Orlando doesnt look to bad temp wise
Quoting LargoFl:
whew strong stoms there huh patrap..stay safe ok


Yeppar's.

Seems the Warmer Flow is clashing with the cooler push East and South.

Boomers and Winds are on the Menu and occurring now.


History,Climate

Quoting Patrap:
There are now 5 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
I bet there are going to be some huge.."end of world" drinking Parties THAT day huh LOL
Glad east texas is getting good rains but rest of the state is still bone dry, i did get my first measurable rain here in 2 months and it seemed like a flood, i got .005 this morning.
Im sure the DWI checkpoints will be as busy as the Bail Bondmans too...come Friday.
are Mississippi and Alabama still in drought?.....
....Georgia also.........................
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Weird to have such a well formed core, yet no eye on visible.



may be this is why


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 964.6mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.0 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -31.9C Cloud Region Temp : -87.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF...ISOLATED TORNADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$
These storms over central and western MS aren't moving very fast and they're putting down some big time rain, we may see some flash flood warnings before too long:

Cyclone Evan:

Quoting Patrap:
There are now 5 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
I am ready, and have been for a long time..:)
Warnings about storm surge are essential: Editorial


The majority of New Yorkers who died in Hurricane Sandy drowned, many in their homes. A Wall Street Journal graphic details each death: Eden Toussaint, 58, drowned and was found in his basement in Queens; Rick Gold, 67, drowned and was found in his basement, also in Queens; Walter Colborne, 89, drowned after fleeing his Staten Island home.

There are similarly heart-breaking deaths in New Jersey's coastal towns.

All of them point to the need for warnings about storm surge that are understandable and convey the danger that floodwaters pose, even in a storm without fierce winds.

Three years after it dropped surge from the numerical categories used for hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center is inching closer to a separate warning for floodwaters as part of a storm system. It is urgently needed. Center officials say that the full warning system won't be ready until 2015, but they should look for any way possible to speed up that time line.

In the meantime, a color-coded map that indicates how much water is expected in different areas along the coast needs to be ready for use during the 2013 hurricane season. But Hurricane Center officials are not committing to that. They say the map may be ready next year or in 2014.

Another hurricane season is really too long for vulnerable communities to wait. The maps ought to be available for the 2013 season, and Congress should give the Hurricane Center the resources to make that possible.

The Storm Surge Unit is small, which is a result of budget limitations, team leader Jamie Rhome told Times-Picayune/NOLA.com reporter Mark Schleifstein during a Dec. 5 tour of the center at Florida International University. "I'm the only federal employee here dedicated to storm surge. One federal employee to do what we do in a hurricane, to do all the outreach and training in the offseason and to try to help on the international front.''

Mr. Rhome's staff includes a representative from NOAA's science corps, which is not part of the National Weather Service, and three private contractors. But that is a tiny group to handle surge forecasting during hurricane season -- sometimes on more than one storm at once -- and work on surge research and storm analysis in the other months.

Access to technology for the research has been an issue as well. The surge maps will be based on high-resolution topography information. That is now in hand, but the surge team is trying to decrease the time it takes to create a surge map as a storm is moving toward the coast.

Officials need to agree on the final map and then figure out how best to distribute it to local forecast offices and emergency management agencies. That will take significant coordination and training all along the nation's coastlines.

Obviously, that is a very complicated process. But there must be a sense of urgency about getting it completed for 2013. Hurricane Center officials should figure out what it will take to do so, and then Congress should provide the necessary funding.

The maps, although they will lack the precision of the surge warning being developed, are easily understandable. Blue indicates 3 feet or less water above ground level and red is at the extreme upper end, 9 feet or more above ground. Yellow and orange are intermediate depths. When done, the full warning system will let people know where life-threatening flooding is likely. But the colors on the maps make it pretty obvious if you are at risk.

The heightened awareness of storm surge started with Katrina. And this fall, Isaac and Sandy provided grim reminders. Both of them had only Category 1 winds, but they had dangerous levels of surge that coastal residents didn't fully understand.

There is detailed information on surge available during a storm, but it is not disseminated in an understandable and useful way. It hasn't been emphasized to the public as it should be, either. In addition, local officials have been left to decipher technical information they may not be equipped to handle.

National Hurricane Center directors and emergency managers in hurricane-prone states have complained for 20 years about leaving those decisions to local officials who are untrained and may be more concerned about issues like the cost of evacuation. As the surge warnings are developed, state and local officials who are making evacuation decisions need to be trained to decipher the information.

The impetus is obvious: A clear warning could save lives.

Ann George, 60, and Augustus "Gus" Saunders, 52, drowned in their Braithwaite home during Isaac. The couple believed they could weather the storm. Dozens of other residents there and in LaPlace thought the same thing and ended up being rescued from the floodwaters.

They and Sandy's victims in the Northeast are why the new warning system is so important and why the surge maps, at the least, need to be ready for next season.
Evan continues to display extremely deep convection. If the eye clears out further he could become a Cat 5.

I can't wait for dec 22 to come, I know 2 people who actually believe in the dec 21 phenomenon. (one that the world will end, and another that we pass into a new "enlightened" phase of human history.

Typhoon Evan

Rainbow animated Loop

The Short Wave IR Loop is as impressive as it is disturbing.



Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (950 hPa) located at 15.6S 179.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 11 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Organization has improved in the past 24 hours. Eye visible in radar imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with MG eye in CMG surrounding.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.9S 177.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.1S 176.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.8S 176.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)


I still don't understand why they didn't go to a signal 4 or 5 with Bopha..I don't trust their warnings anymore..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I can't wait for dec 22 to come, I know 2 people who actually believe in the dec 21 phenomenon. (one that the world will end, and another that we pass into a new "enlightened" phase of human history.


Heck, Georgie . . . I didn't realise you were posting from an institution. How many hours a day do they let you have in the computer room?
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
MSZ043-044-048>050-053>056-161740-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-SCOTT MS-RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-LEAKE MS-HINDS MS-
COPIAH MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
1024 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1024 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE JACKSON METRO
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
CARTHAGE TO WEST JACKSON TO PORT GIBSON AT 1020 AM CST...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE JACKSON METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR CONSIDERABLE PONDING
OF WATER ON STREETS. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PEOPLE IN CLAIBORNE...NORTHERN COPIAH...HINDS...SOUTHERN LEAKE...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...RANKIN...SCOTT...NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON AND
NORTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3201 9108 3203 9109 3209 9097 3208 9091
3212 9091 3212 9085 3216 9084 3214 9083
3215 9077 3218 9078 3277 8957 3270 8932
3234 8932 3179 9046 3198 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 289DEG 19KT 3270 8956 3201 9097

$$

EEC
Quoting yonzabam:


Heck, Georgie . . . I didn't realise you were posting from an institution. How many hours a day do they let you have in the computer room?


??
not sure what you mean by that....
Good Morning Folks. Here is today's US Jet Stream Map. Explains the possibility for strong winds during passage of the front.........The Jet is basically draped in line with the frontal boundry.

Link
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I can't wait for dec 22 to come, I know 2 people who actually believe in the dec 21 phenomenon. (one that the world will end, and another that we pass into a new "enlightened" phase of human history.


Shhh....there are believers on this site
Quoting LargoFl:
are Mississippi and Alabama still in drought?.....
I do know the Western 2/3's of Texas, most of Midwest, parts of West and Most of Georgia are in severe droughts.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The squall line towards the middle and end of this week is going to be epic. Huge wind event looking likely.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
anyway, moving on...

I made this poll few days ago...here are the resulting stats (yes, I took the time to do it) as they said In Latin...hic est pro omnibus...

a) Huge quake/tsunami.....28.6%
b) Extreme weather event..39.4% (e.g. ice age, sudden apocalyptic Katrina-like cat 5 hurricane)
c) Extraterrestrial event......17.2% (UFO, alien attack
d) US GOP/Stock crisis.......2.3% (e.g. another Great Depression)
e) War/attack.....................1% (e.g. like WWIII, 9/11 or something like that)
f) Social crisis....................1.5% (e.g. Michael Jackson death)
g) By other event...............9.4% (e.g. some said of a zombie attack)
h) Nothing's gonna happen.. 0.6%.

so based on this then YES something could happen on Friday December 21, 2012


yeee...I hit post 2900!!!!


This poll is just sad. Especially on a science related blog.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


This poll is just sad. Especially on a science related blog.



Dude its no fun picking nothing, it's all a joke.
Three-dimensional images by Nasa's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite just hours before the landfall of Typhoon Pablo on Baganga, Davao Oriental on December 3 showed a quick intensification from a Category 3 to Category 5 cyclone, which an official described as "full catastrophe."

"This close to landfall, the TRMM satellite saw what could only be described as the 'full catastrophe' in terms of the eyewall indicators of a potentially destructive tropical cyclone," said Owen Kelley of the TRMM science team at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., in a report online on hurricanes and tropical cyclones.

Defined as a cyclone's most destructive region, an eyewall is located just outside the eye where the most damaging winds and intense rainfall is found.

The eyewall around Pablo had six devastating features.
------------------------------------------------- ------
1) First, noon of December 3, just hours before the pre-dawn landfall, the TRMM radar saw two hot towers "simultaneously reaching a 15.5 kilometers altitude on the northeast side of the eyewall where the storm's forward motion is added to the counterclockwise winds circling under the eyewall."

A hot tower is a cloud that penetrates the tropopause, or that which reached to the lowest later of the atmosphere into the stratosphere. The tropopuase is usually around 15 kilometers above sea level.

The presence of hot towers in a typhoon's eyewall indicates strengthening in the next six hours.

From past records of TRMM images, one hot tower higher than 14.5 kilometers or nine miles already indicates intensification is ongoing. More than that, at the base of these two hot towers were heavy rainfall.
-------------------------------------------------

2)Second, Pablo not just had one but two eyewalls. This indicates "rapid intensification."
------------------------------------------------

3) Worse, the inner eyewall had only a ~20 km radius, which is smaller than the average cyclone, which again says a lot of the typhoon's "fearsome potential."
"A compact eyewall means that the typhoon's eye contains only a relatively small volume of air that would need to be heated in order to lower the storm's ocean-surface central pressure, which in turn, would make it easier to increase the speed of the circling surface winds that determine the storm's 'headline' intensity," the report said.
------------------------------------------------- ---

4)
As if that's not enough, Pablo just before landfall had two lightning flashes in the inner edge of one of the eyewall hot towers, a relatively rare occurrence in tropical cyclones.

"Lightning tends to occur where updrafts are strong enough to suspend in mid-air a mix of supercooled water and grauple or hail-sized chunks of ice," the report said.

This ice can only be formed when updrafts "repeatedly bob ice particles up and down through a lower cloud layer with liquid water droplets and then a higher cloud layer cold enough to promote freezing." Meaning, Pablo was not just gathering a very strong rain and wind, it was also playing around with ice.
------------------------------------------------- -

5)As a fifth indicator that typhoon Pablo was brewing something really, really big, the TRMM observed "cloud-top temperatures."

The coldest cloud tops had temperatures as cold a -90C. The report said this shows that Pablo was sucking up a great deal of energy from the ocean surface and turning this into strong updrafts that were punching through the troposphere and into what lies between the troposphere and stratosphere.

From relative heat to very beyond freezing cold means very strong updrafts indicating the typhoon was going on an overdrive that has yet to be witnessed again.
------------------------------------------------- -----

6) To top it off, these same cloud-top temperatures show that the circling wind of the typhoon were contained and prevented from simply dissipating from the eye to the outside drafts.

"Specifically, the cloud-top temperatures show gravity waves propagating around the eyewall instead of spreading away from the inner core like ripples in a pond," the report said.
_________________________________________________ ---

Thus, while the Pagasa had earlier announced that it does not use the term super typhoon and that such a term is only used by the media, Pablo was indeed a super typhoon for lack of any other word to describe it.

To add to its record-breaking dimensions, Pablo broke a long-held belief that tropical cyclones can only form at least five or eight degrees of latitude away from the equator.

"Tropical Cyclone Bopha (international codename of Pablo) has just broken this rule, with the TRMM satellite radar catching Bopha in the act of rapidly intensifying from category 3 to category 5 when approximately six degrees north of the equator," the Nasa report said.

There were very few such tropical storms or typhoons near the equator. These include Washi or Sendong, which hit Iligan and Cagayan de Oro Cities last year, Tropical Storm Agni that fell on Somalia on December 5, 2004, and Vamie which hit Singapore on December 27, 2001.

"In the past half century, the two tropical storms with the most similar landfall locations in the southern Philippines may be Kate (Typhoon Titang in 1970) that made landfall at category 4 and caused over 600 deaths and Washi (Sendong in 2011) that make landfall as a tropical storm and caused over 1,000 deaths," the report said.

It was Titang that hit Davao Region and at that time it was listed as the deadliest typhoon to hit the country with 631 dead, 284 missing and $50-million in damage. This has since been surpassed by nearly 20 typhoons throughout the 42-year span, the worst of which so far is Pablo.

"The physical mechanisms contributing to such an event (Pablo) will take scientists time to unravel," the report said.

As of Sunday, the death toll from Pablo has reached 1,020, while 844 people remained missing.

In its update, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said the number of injured persons also rose to 2,662.

The highest number of dead totaling 962 was reported from Region 11 (Davao Region). The rest included 21 in the Caraga Region, 15 in Region 10 (Northern Mindanao), 10 in Region 7 (Central Visayas), four in Region 12 (Soccsksargen), three in Region 8 (Eastern Visayas), three in Region 4-B (Mimaropa) and one each in Region 9 (Zamboanga Peninsula) and Region 6 (Western Visayas).

The typhoon also affected 701,224 families, or 6,203,826 people in 2,910 villages in 271 towns and 38 cities in 32 provinces. Of these, 230,453 families or 987,349 people are staying in 60 evacuation centers.

Damage caused by Pablo was estimated at P24,160,920,528.05 -- P7,761,431,310 in infrastructure, P16,350,529,805.05 in agriculture, and P48,959,413 in private properties.

At least 63,040 houses were destroyed while 95,544 were partially damaged, said the NDRRMC
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The squall line towards the middle and end of this week is going to be epic. Huge wind event looking likely.



SPC has my area marked, I'm hoping for some 70 mph winds.
Forced line in low CAPE environment