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Category 2 Irene Approaches The Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:51 AM GMT on August 23, 2011

As of 2am EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 20.1N, 69.7W, 135 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 978 mb. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti board to Cabo Engano, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands. Hurricane watches have been posted for the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole, St. Nicholas to the Dominican border and the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for all of Haiti and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Santo Domingo.

5AM Update
As of 5am EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 20.3N, 70.1W, 105 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, keeping it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 978 mb.

Figure 1 shows that Irene is maturing into a vigorous storm, with apparent waves in the western edge of the cirrus outflow.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 135AM EDT, August 22, 2011

Track Forecast

Irene is forecast to move to the north-northwest, passing over all of the Bahama islands by Thursday evening, at which points it starts curving to the north. Irene is forecast to make landfall in the US near Wilmington, NC Saturday evening. However, it is important to note that this is not a definitive forecast, the average forecast error for day 5 is 250 miles. The timing of Irene's recurvature depends on how quickly several small troughs of low pressure in the Northeastern US move to the east. After Saturday, Irene may pose a threat to the mid-Atlantic coastline and locations further north, but it is too early to make a skillful forecast for those regions.

NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a major hurricane (winds faster than 110 mph), within 24 hours, then reaching peak intensity at 130 mph (Category 4 storm) by 8pm EDT Thursday evening.

Forecast models and adaptive observations
The different forecast models are in rough agreement until Irene nears the Carolinas. The dynamical hurricane forecasting models, GFDL and HWRF, have Irene making landfall near Charleston, SC. NGFDL (a variant of the GFDL that uses NOGAPS for background conditions) has landfall near Morehead City, NC, and the GFS has Irene crossing the Outer Banks. The UKMET forecast track splits the difference, placing Irene near Myrtle Beach, SC at landfall.

To reduce the model spread, and improve the track forecast error, the NOAA Gulfstream IV and an Air Force WC-130J have been flying dropsonde missions north of Irene. A dropsonde is an meteorological instrument package dropped from a plane that can tell you the vertical profile of temperature, pressure, moisture, and winds. By flying these missions, the dropsondes can improve all of the numerical weather prediction models initial picture of the atmospheres, which improves the forecast. Also, NHC has asked NWS offices in the southeastern US that launch weather balloons to do so every 6 hours instead of the normal 12 hour frequency.


Figure 2 Official track forecast of Irene as of 2am.

5AM update
The 00Z ECMWF forecast is available and Figure 3 shows the maximum wind speed over the next week for the eastern coast of the US. Green indicates tropical storm force winds, while yellow and orange are hurricane-force winds. The important thing is not to fixate on the predicted landfall location, but to see that Irene's winds will affect areas far away from landfall. The GFS, not shown, agrees with ECMWF that Irene will have a large area of tropical-storm force winds associated with it.

Figure 3 Maximum wind-speed in mph from the 00Z August 23 ECMWF forecast for the next week.

Impacts

In the immediate future, Irene is expected to have a significant impact on the Bahamas and surrounding islands. Hurricane force winds are forecast to reach the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos sometime this afternoon or evening. These locations can also expect 5-10 inches of rain. Three to six inches of rain are forecast over northern Hispaniola, with isolated areas receiving up to 10 inches. This could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in mountaineous terrain. NHC is predicting a storm surge of 9-13 feet above normal tide level for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

Outside of the islands immediately impacted by Irene, it is my judgement that everybody living on the eastern coast of the US should monitor Irene and review their hurricane preparations over the next few days.

Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and Angela Fritz will be covering the afternoon. I'll be back on third shift tonight.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting LightningCharmer:


'Don't think there ever will be a day when a blogger does not throw in the XTRP model panic joke.



It wont happen any more than when someone does mention it, someone wont actually call them on it.
Quoting Waltanater:
We've seen hurricanes do this before in the past...just keep moving on defying all models no matter what! This is my point exactly. Just by listenting to the weather people on TV I am not convinced about their confidence level in the models, even though they keep stating the facts which is the storm is still going wnw and hasn't turned yet...comments like, "we are all waiting now to see what it does" doesn't help the model's credibility.


As I previously explained, Hurricanes follow only one thing and it is the law of Physics. Their mission is to cool down the waters of the atlantic by removing the stored heat energy and move it to higher latitudes therefore they will always tend to move north because of Earth roational dynamics. Ridges stop them from doing this so when you see a hurricane moving west more than likely it is because to their norht there is a strong ridge steering them that way, but as soon as they find a weakness norht they go. This is the case here. The weakness is projected to be east of Florida way east of Florida may i say and that explain the track designated by the NHC. For it to do what you claim the ridge would need ot be west enough inside FL and the weaknes to be in the GOMEX. The trof would have to first be really weak and second pull out really fast for this to be possible. It does not seem to be the case this time, but It happened before.
Quoting cloudburst2011:




I WILL SAY IT EVEN IF IRENE WERE TO TO STALL FLORIDA IS COMPLETELY OUT THE WOODS...IT WOULD EFFECT THE CAROLINAS IF THAT WAS TO HAPPEN BUT IRENE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF STALLING IN FACE THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME MORE STABLE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...


This time of year, it good for everyone to be prepared and aware of tropical weather. Yes, it's unlikely for Irene to stray from her forecast but it won't hurt anyone to keep watch on her.
Quoting Patrap:


That file image of Katrina is as it appeareed still East of Fla as a Tropical Storm,,it never created a Eye feature till into the GOM.,,as a Hurricane


Actually, Katrina hit Miami-Dade as a Cat1 hurricane
Quoting MahFL:
One thing is for sure Irene is not going anywhere in a hurry, geeze !


No kidding!

The non perishables people bought for their preparedness kits will perish before it moves!
Quoting Orcasystems:


You are a damn idiot...
Did you happen to notice its going to run over a fair amount of people long before then..


It isn't that he is an idiot, it is the fact that everyone seems to be missing that Irene is SLOWING DOWN and now is moving only 10 MPH towards the WNW
Quoting libertygirl:
I live in Key West, Fl and we are watching this carefully. Until we see a direct turn towards the North...it's positioning makes it appear that it could come straight up the "alley" and with that big "blob" hanging up off coast of FL/GA - I am wondering if that thing will push it down and track it into the "alley"? Waiting for Wed. afternoon ... on pins and needles.



Key West has only a 10% chance of getting minimal tropical storm force winds, and less than 1% chance of anything more than that. According to the official NHC forecast.
1009. Patrap
IRENE Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

TFP's and ZOOM are active
Great to hear from you, Baha.  Same story here in eastern NC.  People are conditioned to think that approaching storms will recurve so they don't take storms that are 4 days out very seriously.  Traditionally many storms DO curve, keeping the worst off shore, but not always.  It's been a LONG time since this particular set-up has occurred.  I'm keeping my family and friends informed without overstating my case.  Stay safe, all.
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, people on the radio are still saying "IF" Irene comes.... clear evidence that we haven't had a hurricane hit here for a while...

Quoting snotly:


STORMTOP OUT! ... I mean cloudburst2011...


Is this the same guy? Certainly sounds like him!
Quoting smartinwx:


The XTRP model is consistently pointing to New Orleans, but it's clearly an outlier.

someone taught me years ago (and ignore those who criticize you for mentioning it) that the x-trap is merely the course the storm would follow if there were no features to guide it, ie a trough or ridge.
1014. HCW
90L model runs look a little wacky


1015. dader
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Irene
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





The 12z models are looking better for the entire East Coast.
Time: 14:38:30Z
Coordinates: 20.5167N 70.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 691.6 mb (~ 20.42 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,010 meters (~ 9,875 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 976.4 mb (~ 28.83 inHg)
D-value: -





Port of track just a smidge
Almost time for the 11am advisory.
Quoting BahaHurican:
.

Mate! where are you located now?
1020. NJ2S
On a serious note....what can NYC expect from Irene? And what's the time frame? If she moves up coast will she pick up speed...?
Quoting Patrap:
Why do you keep posting the same image over and over? Once is enough, unless it changes drastically.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


As I previously explained, Hurricanes follow only one thing and it is the law of Physics. Their mission is to cool down the waters of the atlantic by removing the stored heat energy and move it to higher latitudes therefore they will always tend to move north because of Earth roational dynamics. Ridges stop them from doing this so when you see a hurricane moving west more than likely it is because to their norht there is a strong ridge steering them that way, but as soon as they find a weakness norht they go. This is the case here. The weakness is projected to be east of Florida way east of Florida may i say and that explain the track designated by the NHC. For it to do what you claim the ridge would need ot be west enough inside FL and the weaknes to be in the GOMEX. The trof would have to first be really weak and second pull out really fast for this to be possible. It does not seem to be the case this time, but It happened before.


I think the problem for most people is that if they don't see the system moving in a certain direction they don't have faith it will ever turn that direction. This is probably because in some cases it can be difficult to visualize the relevant upper air features like troughs and ridges, although in many cases troughs and ridges can be identified on WV maps.
Recon plane toward center from SE to NW. Last time they did that, they found 121 mph flight winds.
Time: 14:38:30Z
Coordinates: 20.5167N 70.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 691.6 mb (~ 20.42 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,010 meters (~ 9,875 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 976.4 mb (~ 28.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 326° at 4 knots (From the NW/NNW at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 14.0°C (~ 57.2°F)
Dew Pt: 10.0°C (~ 50.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots* (~ 26.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
1025. Patrap
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Recon plane toward center from SE to NW. Last time they did that, they found 121 mph flight winds.


Recon turned towards southwest as they came into the centre. Peak flight-level winds of 67 knots in south eastern eyewall.
Well looks like all the models are finally coming in agreement
1028. Buhdog
I don't understand the confusion. Katrina had an eye the whole time...it was just cloud filled till it was a cat 3. This is very easy to understand.

This won't make sense to many, but i am throwing out a new term "dub-stepping" this will be used when a hurricane wobbles. Anyone who has heard dub-step would get it. Most songs have a robotic sound. wobble wobble...

and with that, I think Irene just dubstepped west. :)
Quoting Patrap:
IRENE Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

TFP's and ZOOM are active


Looks to be pretty much right on the forecast track...
1030. 7544
we got a west jog goin on
is that a eye ?
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Time: 14:38:30Z
Coordinates: 20.5167N 70.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 691.6 mb (~ 20.42 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,010 meters (~ 9,875 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 976.4 mb (~ 28.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 326° at 4 knots (From the NW/NNW at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 14.0°C (~ 57.2°F)
Dew Pt: 10.0°C (~ 50.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots* (~ 26.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

so slight wobble to the west.
I swear the nest person to call IRENE a FISH STORM is going to have a bucket of crow thrown at you by ME! This ISN"T a Fish Storm because she already hit the isalnds in the eastern Caribbean and the Bahamas also are in serious trouble. All this talk of Florida and the Carolinas but no one is talking about Irene's first date partners in the Bahamas.

CAT 3-4 in the Bahamas=Disaster also=NO FISH STORM
70 mph on open SE side... hmm. Pressure is still dropping.
Quoting cloudburst2011:




I WILL SAY IT EVEN IF IRENE WERE TO TO STALL FLORIDA IS COMPLETELY OUT THE WOODS...IT WOULD EFFECT THE CAROLINAS IF THAT WAS TO HAPPEN BUT IRENE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF STALLING IN FACE THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME MORE STABLE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...



Not quite true, If Irene stalls, she could miss the trof and get caught under the ridge forcing her to move in a more westerly fashion. But she's not stalled at all. Also a stalling system could mean that it found the corner of the ridge and that it is starting to shift to a more northward trajectory.
Pressure continuing to fall with Irene.
1038. Patrap
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


1041. WxLogic
Based on the possible center fix... Irene is not moving as fast as it was though (as expected - weak steering, land interaction, SAT obs, etc...) so from what I tell it will be short of the next forecast point.

The next couple HH center fixes would let us know where is moving in the assumption an eye doesn't fully develop first.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
I swear the nest person to call IRENE a FISH STORM is going to have a bucket of crow thrown at you by ME! This ISN"T a Fish Storm because she already hit the isalnds in the eastern Caribbean and the Bahamas also are in serious trouble. All this talk of Florida and the Carolinas but no one is talking about Irene's first date partners in the Bahamas.

CAT 3-4 in the Bahamas=Disaster also=NO FISH STORM


++++ a whole bunch. Some of the people on here forget there are other people in the world other then themselves.
Aren't we due to have someone say she's missing the turn? Florida / Gulf / New Orleans / Cozumel better get ready? Happens with every one of these turns.

If these models and thus the projected path continue to move east, the Rapid Blog Dissipation Flag = ON.

Be safe out there in the Bahamas!!
Quoting AllStar17:
Pressure continuing to fall with Irene.


The extrapolated pressure readings have been consistently 2 or 3 mb lower than what the dropsonde finds over the last day, so minimum pressure is likely still around 978, possibly as high as 980.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



HEY I RESENT BEING CALLED AND IDIOT IM WELL AWARE OF IRENE HITTING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS I CANT DO A THING ABOUT THAT...I WAS CONCERNED ABOUT THE CAROLINAS AND I SEE THE TROF DIGGING DEEP DOWN THE EAST COAST AND A 70% CHANCE OF IRENE GOING OUT TO SEA...IM SORRY IF YOU CANT SEE THAT BUT ITS GREAT NEWS FOR THE CAROLINAS AND IF I WERE U I WOULD CHILL ..YOU MUST LIVE IN THE CAROLINAS TO HAVE AND ATTITUDE LIKE YOU JUST DISPLAYED...YOU NEED TO ACCEPT IT I BEEN DOING THIS FOR OVER 20 YEARS AND IRENE IF SHE DOESNT STALL IS GOING TO GO OUT TO SEA...IM SORRY FOR THOSE IN THE BAHAMAS BUT I CANT DO NOTHING ABOUT THAT BUT SAY SOME PRAYERS FOR THEM..


there is one thing you CAN do about it... never ever ever ever ever call this storm a fish storm again
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Recon turned towards southwest as they came into the centre. Peak flight-level winds of 67 knots in south eastern eyewall.
yea, I posted that before Google Earth recon updated it.
Quoting NJ2S:
On a serious note....what can NYC expect from Irene? And what's the time frame? If she moves up coast will she pick up speed...?


I'm also in Northern NJ.

If the current thinking pans out and Irene skirts right up along the coast, probably something similar to Floyd. If the track shifts to the left or right, that could change.
This shift in the models to the east is also in result to a stronger storm early in its cycle. If Irene continues to ingest dry air and not able to complete a complete CDO this could have impacts on future model runs shifting slight back west and east with each flucuation in intensity.

Though the trough and Bermuda High correlation is also impacting her track, I still believe that her current intensity from here over the next 24-48 hrs could impact how far west she may go.

We also have a blob sittin over the Gulf Stream just may make things even more interesting, although she will likley absorb it and thats even if it is still there, which I highly doubt it will, but until her eye becomes completely developed within this storm she is going to jog west and north and back and forth until she develops it.

Quoting wolftribe2009:
I swear the nest person to call IRENE a FISH STORM is going to have a bucket of crow thrown at you by ME! This ISN"T a Fish Storm because she already hit the isalnds in the eastern Caribbean and the Bahamas also are in serious trouble. All this talk of Florida and the Carolinas but no one is talking about Irene's first date partners in the Bahamas.

CAT 3-4 in the Bahamas=Disaster also=NO FISH STORM


Didn't you hear the news? The Bahamas were just taken over by the fish population of the Atlantic.
1051. NSgirl
Good morning folks, my name is Connie, I live in Nova Scotia, Canada......wondering what's the likelyhood we'll get some effects from Irene up here????
Time: 14:38:30Z
Coordinates: 20.5167N 70.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 691.6 mb (~ 20.42 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,010 meters (~ 9,875 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 976.4 mb (~ 28.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 326 at 4 knots (From the NW/NNW at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 14.0C (~ 57.2F)
Dew Pt: 10.0C (~ 50.0F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots* (~ 26.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

center fix i think
LiLi!!!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
yea, I posted that before Google Earth recon updated it.


I know, the turn suprised me too lol.
Looks more and more like Florida won't see much... maybe an errant rotating thunderstorm or two.

Beach erosion will be extensive.

Those Bahamians are a tough crowd... they're dealt with worse. :-)
Quoting Patrap:
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




Hispaniola is disrupting inflow.
Quoting HCW:
90L model runs look a little wacky


,the spread shown w the bam models indicate wind sheer should keep it from developing for a few days imo
Quoting surferjoe5899:


Actually, Katrina hit Miami-Dade as a Cat1 hurricane
Didn't they expect it to wane over land but the everglades kept it steady as she goes? That impressed me...
Quoting NSgirl:
Good morning folks, my name is Connie, I live in Nova Scotia, Canada......wondering what's the likelyhood we'll get some effects from Irene up here????


I wouldn't be playing on the rocks at Peggy's cove when it goes past just yet :)
Quoting quakeman55:

Nah, he gets all of his "data" from his weather station located in his mother's basement.


LOL, i have a weather station. only thing that works is the pressure, but....wont help a darnt hing with irene, any smart person would know that:)
1061. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


1062. brianc
Quoting Orcasystems:
Time: 14:38:30Z
Coordinates: 20.5167N 70.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 691.6 mb (~ 20.42 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,010 meters (~ 9,875 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 976.4 mb (~ 28.83 inHg)
D-value: -





Port of track just a smidge


I see that, also. Thanks for all you do, Orca!
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 71.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.
Don't look for anything to come towards Texas for awhile, it has been 105 to 107 here all month and now they are saying this weekend thru next week it will be hotter because the High Pressure will get stronger? Maybe after next week the Heatwave will break? Right now the Gulf is protected big time.
1066. DocBen
Cape Cod anyone? New England would have a very interesting time if they took a direct hit. Of course, it looks like they will get a lot of TS wind/rain anyway.

Years ago when I lived in Boston I would sit on the rocks on the north shore during nor'easters. definitely makes a person feel small in the face of nature.
11A advisory out... not gonna post it... assuming by being here you have the internet.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Didn't you hear the news? The Bahamas were just taken over by the fish population of the Atlantic.


Are those the folks from Atlantis, the Atlantans?
Quoting Patrap:
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Here we go with "we got an eye now" comments...
1070. Patrap


i'm thinking she is going to stay on this same pattern till she gets just to around 78 then lets see what she decides to do..if she stays on this same course it would put her between lower bahamas and cuba...plenty of warm water to deal with...but thats just me..
Anyone seen Reedzone lately?

I miss his 1000 mile wide cones and celebrations for "nailing" the forecast.
Wind field is growing pretty rapidly...
975.2mb
For anyone who is NOT prepared or ready to evacuate in the cone. Hurricane Ike ('08) was "only" a Cat II storm, but had a large windfield like Irene.



Good luck and God bless anyone in the path of this one, and we are praying it curves straight back out into the Atlantic (and misses Bermuda!!!)
Its official, florida is out of the da cone. No more west wobble casting...
Quoting whepton3:
11A advisory out... not gonna post it... assuming by being here you have the internet.


LOL!!
1079. FLdewey
Quoting whepton3:
11A advisory out... not gonna post it... assuming by being here you have the internet.


15 people will do it anyway ;-)

I'm out of da cone woop woop!
Irene moved a bit more west. I think this blog is going to be crazy now.
1081. 7544
west wobble again cone goes east
While I agree that Irene has been basically moving WNW, the last 24 hours imo would same like a more N of west motion, rather a true WNW movement, jmo. Just wait putting on the bulletproof vest :)
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


As I previously explained, Hurricanes follow only one thing and it is the law of Physics. Their mission is to cool down the waters of the atlantic by removing the stored heat energy and move it to higher latitudes therefore they will always tend to move north because of Earth roational dynamics. Ridges stop them from doing this so when you see a hurricane moving west more than likely it is because to their norht there is a strong ridge steering them that way, but as soon as they find a weakness norht they go. This is the case here. The weakness is projected to be east of Florida way east of Florida may i say and that explain the track designated by the NHC. For it to do what you claim the ridge would need ot be west enough inside FL and the weaknes to be in the GOMEX. The trof would have to first be really weak and second pull out really fast for this to be possible. It does not seem to be the case this time, but It happened before.
I thought a hurricanes job was to remove excess latent heat out of the tropics...They are not there to cool the waters. ????
Quoting SPLbeater:


LOL, i have a weather station. only thing that works is the pressure, but....wont help a darnt hing with irene, any smart person would know that:)

If the only thing that works is the pressure, then you don't have a weather station; you have a barometer... ;-)
Quoting smartinwx:
Anyone seen Reedzone lately?

I miss his 1000 mile wide cones and celebrations for "nailing" the forecast.

wont hear to much from him as this isnt hitting east central florida


000
WTNT34 KNHC 231450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 71.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF IRENE. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
1088. myrtle1
I live here in north myrtle beach sc.even if it tracks further east will i still have bad conditions here thanks
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 14:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 23rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 20.5N 70.7W
Location: 72 miles (116 km) to the SSE (157°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (29.15 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 125° (from the SE) 61 knots (70 mph)
1000mb -113m (-371 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 574m (1,883 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 155° (from the SSE) 81 knots (93 mph)
850mb 1,310m (4,298 ft) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 170° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)
700mb 2,966m (9,731 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 11.4°C (52.5°F) 190° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 14:34Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center (it is possible this value is in radians and that our site decoded it wrong).
NHC shifted their track LITTLE to east. Landfall now in Morehead City, going north as an major, and toward NYC as a hurricane.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



senseless drivel


Stormtop, is that you? Have you refined the FLUSH model any more?
Quoting Skyepony:
975.2mb


I'm concerned Irene will intensify very quickly once she leaves the vicinity of Hispaniola and reestablishes inflow from the south. Especially given that pressure appears to keep dropping.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
yea, I posted that before Google Earth recon updated it.


Actually, they turned again, and did indeed go through the NW eyewall. Found flight level winds around 65-70 knots. Worth noting that they are at a higher level than they were yesterday when they found 105knot winds, almost double the height, in fact.
Quoting cmahan:


You've been getting your jollies by contradicting everyone in earshot for 20 years? Wow, you need a new hobby.

And keep in mind this is the same one who just a few days ago kept insisting Irene would go to the GOM...
1095. jonelu
Out of the Cone of Doom finally! My thought are with our friends in the Bahamas.
Quoting 7544:
west wobble again cone goes east


Lol the NHC is not a bunch of wobble watchers thank god.

Hurricane IRENE Forecast/Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT24 KNHC 231449
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 71.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 71.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.3N 72.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.3N 73.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.6N 75.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.3N 76.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.2N 77.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 33.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 37.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Irene appears to be struggling some this morning as dry air from the south and west appears to be getting entrained and Hispanola disrupts the southerly inflow of the storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see some short term weakening of Irene given this.
1099. WxLogic
Quoting stormpetrol:
While I agree that Irene has been basically moving WNW, the last 24 hours imo would same like a more N of west motion, rather a true WNW movement, jmo. Just wait putting on the bullet vest :)


I agree... she's moving WNW. The cloud expansion to the W might make it look like is moving W but in reality if you average the wobbles to the E/W you have path to the WNW.
1100. HCW
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/ 145015.shtml?5-daynl#contents
dropsonde to the eyewall..

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (29.15 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 125° (from the SE) 61 knots (70 mph)
1000mb -113m (-371 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 574m (1,883 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 155° (from the SSE) 81 knots (93 mph)
850mb 1,310m (4,298 ft) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 170° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)
700mb 2,966m (9,731 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 11.4°C (52.5°F) 190° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)
1103. NSgirl
Quoting Orcasystems:


I wouldn't be playing on the rocks at Peggy's cove when it goes past just yet :)


Thank you for the fast reply! I'll fill up the propane tanks & stock up on water & alpha-ghetti just incase. I went through Hurricane Juan when he hit Halifax in 2003, I'll never be caught unprepared again!
1104. FLdewey
Me thinks timmer is wasting a trip to the NC.

He should stay home and dominate his yard.

6 miles per gallon has to sting.
1105. ncstorm
Quoting myrtle1:
I live here in north myrtle beach sc.even if it tracks further east will i still have bad conditions here thanks


exactly..
1107. maeko
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hurricane Irene appears to be struggling some this morning as dry air from the south and west appears to be getting entrained and Hispanola disrupts the southerly inflow of the storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see some short term weakening of Irene given this.


and if she becomes temp weaker, how will that affect her steering?
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


As I previously explained, Hurricanes follow only one thing and it is the law of Physics. Their mission is to cool down the waters of the atlantic by removing the stored heat energy and move it to higher latitudes therefore they will always tend to move north because of Earth roational dynamics. Ridges stop them from doing this so when you see a hurricane moving west more than likely it is because to their norht there is a strong ridge steering them that way, but as soon as they find a weakness norht they go. This is the case here. The weakness is projected to be east of Florida way east of Florida may i say and that explain the track designated by the NHC. For it to do what you claim the ridge would need ot be west enough inside FL and the weaknes to be in the GOMEX. The trof would have to first be really weak and second pull out really fast for this to be possible. It does not seem to be the case this time, but It happened before.
Thanks! Great explanation Canehunter.
975.2 mb pressure.
Well, instead of being in the east side of the eye, the eye now goes over my house. I feel powerless being in Germany.....I would like to ride it out, honestly, being fairly far inland.
well, i'm no weather expert but, unless i'm crazy, from the 7:50 a.m. coordinate, to the 10:50 a.m. coordinate, Irene has taken a jog to the west??.....am i right?
multi billion $ storm j.b. tweeted this morning it already cost me a couple bucks paying for the bandwith
000
FONT14 KNHC 231451
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 7 12
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 9 16
TROPICAL STORM 1 2 3 3 10 28 35
HURRICANE 99 98 97 97 89 56 38
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 32 17 16 18 26 29 21
HUR CAT 2 54 41 32 29 29 16 10
HUR CAT 3 12 34 39 35 25 9 6
HUR CAT 4 1 6 9 13 8 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X 1 1 2 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 90KT 100KT 105KT 110KT 110KT 100KT 65KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 20(39)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 24(54)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 18(61)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 14(61)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 7(29)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 41(49) 11(60)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 8(27)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 33(43) 6(49)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 2(31)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) 1(29)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) X(25)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 7(30) 1(31)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 5(25) 1(26)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 4(36) X(36)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 5(36) X(36)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 27(36) 3(39) X(39)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 24(36) 2(38) X(38)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) 2(27) X(27)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 31(69) 1(70) X(70)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) X(36) X(36)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) 1(17)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 5( 5) 25(30) 47(77) 7(84) X(84) X(84)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 10(53) 1(54) X(54)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30)

ANDROS 34 X 6( 6) 31(37) 27(64) 3(67) 1(68) X(68)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)

GREAT EXUMA 34 3 37(40) 49(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X 6( 6) 54(60) 13(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X 1( 1) 28(29) 13(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)

SAN SALVADOR 34 5 53(58) 36(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X 11(11) 57(68) 7(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X 1( 1) 34(35) 6(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42)

MAYAGUANA 34 85 14(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYAGUANA 50 29 62(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
MAYAGUANA 64 3 54(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)

GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND TURK 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GRAND TURK 64 40 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

CAMAGUEY 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 4 10(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

LES CAYES 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

CAPE BEATA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PUERTO PLATA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Anyone else see the dry air from the collasping thunderstorms in her northwest quadrant?




I don't see her RI until this is resolved until then its a slow strengthening or staying at her current strength only ballgame.


Track shifted east based on that HH run...
BahaHurricane may be spared a direct hit also.
Lian
Quoting maeko:


and if she becomes temp weaker, how will that effect her steering?


If she weakened a lot, it would only drive her slightly further west..

. cchsweatherman

Hurricane Irene appears to be struggling some this morning as dry air from the south and west appears to be getting entrained and Hispanola disrupts the southerly inflow of the storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see some short term weakening of Irene given this.


correct and wouldnt this tend a more westerly movememnt since its not completely organized? just curious on your thoughts..
Webcam located at Regent Grand Resort, Grace Bay Beach, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands.

Does anyone have a graphic showing the recent and current storm positions vs the forecast tracks (i.e. showing the accuracy or errors so far in reference to position)?
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 71.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

Can someone please explain to me how this can be WNW?!
Quoting synthvol:
For anyone who is NOT prepared or ready to evacuate in the cone. Hurricane Ike ('08) was "only" a Cat II storm, but had a large windfield like Irene.



Good luck and God bless anyone in the path of this one, and we are praying it curves straight back out into the Atlantic (and misses Bermuda!!!)


We can't exactly compare storm surges along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic...shallow water along the gulf allows for larger storm surges.
Irene could be a disaster for the entire Bahamas. God, I hope nobody dies !!!
Why isn't the NHC upgrading Irene's strength at all?
My prayers are with all the people in the Bahamas and North Carolina. Be Ready because unfortunately this is almost for sure going to hit you. Florida count your blessings we are not in the peak of this season yet.
Quoting midgulfmom:
Didn't they expect it to wane over land but the everglades kept it steady as she goes? That impressed me...


Thats what happened with Fay. Really weak TS that stayed alive through the Everglades. Wait, weren't they comparing this storm to Fay a couple days ago? Not even close.
1129. Patrap
I count 7 outflow boundaries racing NW and west.

Quoting interstatelover7165:
Why isn't the NHC upgrading Irene's strength at all?


Because it hasn't strengthened? I'm just guessing...
1131. Jax82
WIJC? Where is Jim Cantore.
49mph gust just recorded in the TCI's...
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Why isn't the NHC upgrading Irene's strength at all?

cause it isn't stronger.

pressure was up to 980 from 978.
back to the discussion:

ok so the latest models are trending eastward which would be good news for South Carolina and much of North Carolina too. However, I take this light since it raises the flag for me and some here already said they trend eastward during the mourning and the westward in the evening. So I wait till evening to see what happens.

Here is a look over nearly the past 24 hours

11 AM Monday AUG 22

Photobucket

11 PM Monday AUG 22
Photobucket

8 AM Tuesday AUG 23
Photobucket
did it jut wobble west? looks like interaction with land may have caused it to?
Quoting NSgirl:
Good morning folks, my name is Connie, I live in Nova Scotia, Canada......wondering what's the likelyhood we'll get some effects from Irene up here????




good morning to you. too early to tell. just keep checking in or your local weather service should keep you updated. how is the weather now? fall already arriving?
1138. maeko
Quoting charlottefl:


If she weakened a lot, it would only drive her slightly further west..


hmmm, Do Not Want
Quoting Waltanater:
Why do you keep posting the same image over and over? Once is enough, unless it changes drastically.


Just because you are reading all of the posts does not mean that others who can only check in once and a while can go back hundreds of posts to see whats going on.

Especially for those of us who sometimes can only use our phones to see what is going on.

1141. scCane
Quoting Patrap:
I count 7 outflow boundaries racing NW and west.

Hispaniola must be doing a number on it and it's slow speed isn't helping.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
My prayers are with all the people in the Bahamas and North Carolina. Be Ready because unfortunately this is almost for sure going to hit you. Florida count your blessings we are not in the peak of this season yet.


I don't think its going to hit them... everything is slowly shirting it east... It may run close up the coast.. but not a direct hit.
How does shallow water allow for larger storm surges?
Shallow water moves less due to increased bottom friction, unless you know something I am missing.
It may be more damaging in shallow areas because the coast isn't prepared for waves of any size.
Yes?

Does the cone include the width of the storm or just uncertainty about the path of the eye?
1145. 7544
dry air getting to her now may go down to 90mph soon imo
1146. rkay1
When people say FISH STORM, I believe they are referring to it missing CONUS.  Stop acting all moral and get off your high horses.  Go pray for the kids in Haiti.  BTW, it is looking more and more like it will miss the CONUS.
looks like it might hit just a tad to the south of the next nhc mark...just dont see that big turn happening anytime soon...but it's just me..
Quoting biff4ugo:
How does shallow water allow for larger storm surges?
Shallow water moves less due to increased bottom friction, unless you something I am missing.
It may be more damaging in shallow areas because the coast isn't prepared for waves of any size.
Yes?


Pretty good link on storm surge:

Link
Quoting osuwxguynew:
Looks like Irene just sucked in another gulp of warm, dry air descending from the higher terrain of the Dominican Republic. Inner core will suffer for a bit, but she should RI later this afternoon or evening as she finally pulls away DRs influence.


Is anyone considering that that higher terrain of the dominican may temporarily weaken her a hair and cause a westward drift today influencing the long term track a little westward. I think the east shifts may have plateaued or stopped and west tweaks may start, we'll see.

I still favor a Hazel/Bertha hybrid track and approach to NC/SC
1150. Drakoen
Good morning everyone. I see that the models have converged onto a solution taking Irene east of Florida and possibly have her impacting the Carolinas. Water vapor imagery shows a strong trough of low pressure off the eastern seaboard that should help pull Irene more towards the northwest with time. Water vapor imagery also shows a shortwave trough over the northern Plains region and this will be the first of the series of shortwaves to help keep the weakness alive for Irene to follow through. 12z upper air data shows that the 500mb heights have dropped from 594dm over Bermuda to 589dm a sure sign that the ridge to the north is weakening. The key to where Irene will eventually end up in the Mid-Atlantic will initially be where it decides to make the turn to the northwest as the trough to the west and the ridge to the east will buckle her in possibly along the eastern seaboard from the Mid-Alantic towards New England.
I do not know about you all but 98L is taking forever to move anywhere. I think I have seen this system in this area for about a week now.

Link
Hope this is turning into a fish storm
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Why isn't the NHC upgrading Irene's strength at all?


They didn't because it isn't. They would if it was, but it's not, so they won't... at this time.

Probably will. Later. If it does.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Because it hasn't strengthened? I'm just guessing...


Hispaniola is disrupting her southenr outflow, some dry air is being sucked into Irene, and therefore she isnt strengthening any atm
11am advisory = big relief for S. Florida
Quoting biff4ugo:
How does shallow water allow for larger storm surges?
Shallow water moves less due to increased bottom friction, unless you something I am missing.
It may be more damaging in shallow areas because the coast isn't prepared for waves of any size.
Yes?


The slope of the continental shelf allows for the water to pile up as the storm approaches land.
1158. BA
Quoting Patrap:
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery




looks like a real hurricane (unlike other storms this year so far) :)
Quoting biff4ugo:
How does shallow water allow for larger storm surges?
Shallow water moves less due to increased bottom friction, unless you know something I am missing.
It may be more damaging in shallow areas because the coast isn't prepared for waves of any size.
Yes?

Does the cone include the width of the storm or just uncertainty about the path of the eye?

Go to the kitchen and get a plate and a bowl.

Fill them with water.

Blow on them.

Which one is easier to displace the water out of??

There you go.
My only moderately educated guess is that the collapsing thunderstorms is being caused by dry air coming in that is being brought in from the south, which has to come down the mountains of Hispanola and drys out as it does.
Quoting MyrtleCanes:


Is anyone considering that that higher terrain of the dominican may temporarily weaken her a hair and cause a westward drift today influencing the long term track a little westward. I think the east shifts may have plateaued or stopped and west tweaks may start, we'll see.

I still favor a Hazel/Bertha hybrid track and approach to NC/SC
thats why nhc has not discounted the gfdl until just recently
Quoting SPLbeater:


Hispaniola is disrupting her southenr outflow, some dry air is being sucked into Irene, and therefore she isnt strengthening any atm


I know, my comment was sarcastic lol. It won't strengthen until it gets away from Hispaniola.
that blob off jax looks like its starting to orgaize,man that would be a HUGE fly in the ôntment and if it develops throw all the models out and start over,it would be unpresidented,it sure looks highly suspect on high res loop from cod
Quoting 7544:
dry air getting to her now may go down to 90mph soon imo


Yep that island is a good thing. And luckily Haiti was spared mostly this time.

Will take a while to reestablish the core.
1165. 7544
Quoting Nolehead:
looks like it might hit just a tad to the south of the next nhc mark...just dont see that big turn happening anytime soon...but it's just me..


agree espeacialy if the dry air and now some shear getting close to her will bring a down a notch things could change fast as u see now no cat 4 for bahamas down to a 3 wait for the next 12 hours to see what happens
Quoting rkay1:
When people say FISH STORM, I believe they are referring to it missing CONUS.  Stop acting all moral and get off your high horses.  Go pray for the kids in Haiti.  BTW, it is looking more and more like it will miss the CONUS.

It's already been established that Irene is not a fish. So far, it has already impacted Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti.

From what I can deduce from the wealth of informative bloggers is that CONUS is NOT out of the woods, YET.

You have every right to your opinion, just don't get your knickers in a wad when someone disagrees with you.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 15:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 14:38:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°31'N 70°57'W (20.5167N 70.95W)
B. Center Fix Location: 66 miles (107 km) to the S (170°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,918m (9,573ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (92°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 193° at 67kts (From the SSW at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the E (98°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,107m (10,194ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the east quadrant at 14:34:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:44:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE
BKN CLOUDS BLO

This storm look like it's 80-90 mph hurricane for now...
Quoting Drakoen:
Good morning everyone. I see that the models have converged onto a solution taking Irene east of Florida and possibly have her impacting the Carolinas. Water vapor imagery shows a strong trough of low pressure off the eastern seaboard that should help pull Irene more towards the northwest with time. Water vapor imagery also shows a shortwave trough over the northern Plains region and this will be the first of the series of shortwaves to help keep the weakness alive for Irene to follow through. 12z upper air data shows that the 500mb heights have dropped from 594dm over Bermuda to 589dm a sure sign that the ridge to the north is weakening. The key to where Irene will eventually end up in the Mid-Atlantic will initially be where it decides to make the turn to the northwest as the trough to the west and the ridge to the east will buckle her in possibly along the eastern seaboard from the Mid-Alantic towards New England.


Ok dude...this time I'm not jokin'....Ya think we're good?
The reason why Irene is moving so slow is she is fighting between the weakness to the NW and the deep layer low level flow it's currently in right now. Opposing steering currents= slow movement. Either the high to the north will take over or the shortwave approaching will be of significant amplitude to start exerting a NWward pull on her. Only two options I see right now. Couple that with model support, we're more than likely to start seeing more and more of a NW motion as opposed to WNW. But as many on here have said, nothing in weather is written in stone. It's watch and see now.
Quoting synthvol:
For anyone who is NOT prepared or ready to evacuate in the cone. Hurricane Ike ('08) was "only" a Cat II storm, but had a large windfield like Irene.



Good luck and God bless anyone in the path of this one, and we are praying it curves straight back out into the Atlantic (and misses Bermuda!!!)
This guy was prepared!! See it didn't affect him at all! Must be one of the "smart" ones.
Quoting biff4ugo:
How does shallow water allow for larger storm surges?
Shallow water moves less due to increased bottom friction, unless you something I am missing.
It may be more damaging in shallow areas because the coast isn't prepared for waves of any size.
Yes?

Forgive me if i am wrong but i was thinking storm surge would just go around the island, as there is no big land masses to back up the surge. The surge would only get to a certain level which might only be a few feet above the normal tidal level. I am happy to be corrected.
Quoting presslord:
That is hilarious, but a sad telling commentary on our times, LOL.
Florida officially out of the cone of confusion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS THE TRI-STATE AREA
MAY BE IMPACTED FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE. LATEST MODEL AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AREA TO BE IN A REGION OF
CONCERN. THE KEY TO REMEMBER HERE IS TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT STORM
TRACK...AS IMPACTS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM CAN BE FELT SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTER...EVEN IF LANDFALL DOES NOT OCCUR
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM.

THE UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRI MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY FOLLOW
AT THE SURFACE. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO NOT KICK IT OUT TO SEA...BUT YET
PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTH. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
ONCE AGAIN...PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND
ADVISORIES.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY SUN INTO MON...WOULD BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH WINDS. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
ok time to consider this

It looks like Irene is jogging a bit to the West and the forecast is for her to turn more northward. Now who is in agreement with me that this storm might move WNW right above Eastern Cuba and towards the Western Bahamas? This is what I think she will do and so I am now on the "Westward" boat track for the short term. I still am thinking of a landfall in South Carolina since she is so far south.

Link
Quoting MyrtleCanes:


Is anyone considering that that higher terrain of the dominican may temporarily weaken her a hair and cause a westward drift today influencing the long term track a little westward. I think the east shifts may have plateaued or stopped and west tweaks may start, we'll see.

I still favor a Hazel/Bertha hybrid track and approach to NC/SC


Well the current longwave trough over the east coast is ejecting northeastward, so some rebuilding of the ridge to the north of Irene is currently occurring.

However, it's the second larger trough and how deep that digs that will determine the final track. I still don't think we can say much definitively at this time other than eastern NC is the best guess we have.

I will point to the refusal of the Texas ridge to break down as a positive for the eastern US, though it's going to be close no matter what.
Quoting stillwaiting:
that blob off jax looks like its starting to orgaize,man that would be a HUGE fly in the ôntment and if it develops throw all the models out and start over,it would be unpresidented,it sure looks highly suspect on high res loop from cod


It sure would be quite the wildcard. I saw it earlier today... will be interesting to see how they interact... provided it's still there in a couple days time.
1180. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:


Ok dude...this time I'm not jokin'....Ya think we're good?


You're still in the cone so no.
Quoting stillwaiting:
that blob off jax looks like its starting to orgaize,man that would be a HUGE fly in the ôntment and if it develops throw all the models out and start over,it would be unpresidented,it sure looks highly suspect on high res loop from cod


Not really lol.
Quoting MIsland321:
did it jut wobble west? looks like interaction with land may have caused it to?

That's what i saw.......
Quoting 7544:
dry air getting to her now may go down to 90mph soon imo

Yep. I anticipate a downgrade to 90mph probably at 1pm EDT.

Dry air really taking it's toll on her SE quadrant.
Quoting biff4ugo:
How does shallow water allow for larger storm surges?
Shallow water moves less due to increased bottom friction, unless you know something I am missing.
It may be more damaging in shallow areas because the coast isn't prepared for waves of any size.
Yes?

Does the cone include the width of the storm or just uncertainty about the path of the eye?


Wide shallow continental shelf offshore.The surge is directly proportional to the width of the shallow water, and inversely proportional to the depth. Essentially, hurricane force winds blowing onshore across tens of kilometers of shallow water pile up water along coasts. The stronger the wind, the shallower the water, and the greater the extent of shallow water, the higher the pile of water. In some cases it can exceed 2-5 meters. In Galveston, Isaac Cline, the chief meteorologist, measured a rise of sea level greater than 16 feet above mean sea level.
Quoting whepton3:
11A advisory out... not gonna post it... assuming by being here you have the internet.
Yeah, don't. Patrap will probably post it several times anyway. LOL
Florida officially out of the cone of confusion.


Quoting Abacosurf:

Go to the kitchen and get a plate and a bowl.

Fill them with water.

Blow on them.

Which one is easier to displace the water out of??

There you go.


Think of it like a Tsunami too. When a Tsunami comes in the water rises quickly whereas if you are out to sea the water rises much slower. The shallow water gets displaced quicker than deeper water. Rivers and Bays can see the worst rise during Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. I know that a TS moving into a Bay can cause more damage than if it just hit a regular landmass without one. It tends to push the water inward using the bay itself to maximize inflow.
1190. 7544
Quoting stillwaiting:
that blob off jax looks like its starting to orgaize,man that would be a HUGE fly in the ôntment and if it develops throw all the models out and start over,it would be unpresidented,it sure looks highly suspect on high res loop from cod


yeap asked about that this am just came into play could it effect the path as the models didnt see this before the new ones came in you think irene can meet the blob or verser tia
Quoting Skyepony:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 15:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 14:38:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°31'N 70°57'W (20.5167N 70.95W)
B. Center Fix Location: 66 miles (107 km) to the S (170°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,918m (9,573ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (92°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 193° at 67kts (From the SSW at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the E (98°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,107m (10,194ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the east quadrant at 14:34:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:44:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE
BKN CLOUDS BLO



Definitely supports significant weakening with Irene as dry air and disrupted inflow over Hispanola continue to be a problem.
Quoting Orcasystems:
That confirms the wobble to the WSW.
1193. kap333
Ya never know Wolftribe. Im wondering what that blob is off NE FL. What is that all about!

The models are so insistent about a curve, but Irene obviously has not felt any influence yet. If the trough is gonna do its thing, it better get a move on!


Quoting wolftribe2009:
ok time to consider this

It looks like Irene is jogging a bit to the West and the forecast is for her to turn more northward. Now who is in agreement with me that this storm might move WNW right above Eastern Cuba and towards the Western Bahamas? This is what I think she will do and so I am now on the "Westward" boat track for the short term. I still am thinking of a landfall in South Carolina since she is so far south.

Link
Quoting biff4ugo:
How does shallow water allow for larger storm surges?
Shallow water moves less due to increased bottom friction, unless you know something I am missing.
It may be more damaging in shallow areas because the coast isn't prepared for waves of any size.
Yes?

Does the cone include the width of the storm or just uncertainty about the path of the eye?


Cone based strictly on center position. The Mariner's 1-2-3 rule uses the radius of tropical storm force winds plus the cone radius.
Quoting stillwaiting:
that blob off jax looks like its starting to orgaize,man that would be a HUGE fly in the ôntment and if it develops throw all the models out and start over,it would be unpresidented,it sure looks highly suspect on high res loop from cod


Any idea how this would affect irene?
WRAL in Raleigh is saying Triangle will get TS Force, while area on I-95 will get hurricane force if Irene follows 11 am NHC track... I'm in I-40/I-95, soooo yikes.
Quoting surferjoe5899:
11am advisory = big relief for S. Florida


Not really, yes we're out of the cone, but more things are affecting Irene's future which may not put S FL in the clear yet.
Quoting biff4ugo:
How does shallow water allow for larger storm surges?
Shallow water moves less due to increased bottom friction, unless you know something I am missing.
It may be more damaging in shallow areas because the coast isn't prepared for waves of any size.
Yes?

Does the cone include the width of the storm or just uncertainty about the path of the eye?


I believe it has to do with the absence of the continental shelf in the gulf which allows greater flow...
Quoting stillwaiting:
that blob off jax looks like its starting to orgaize,man that would be a HUGE fly in the ntment and if it develops throw all the models out and start over,it would be unpresidented,it sure looks highly suspect on high res loop from cod


Noticed that a few minutes back was well. Very interesting.

NOAA SSD Tropical Atlantic Wide
1200. BA
Quoting cloudburst2011:
hey when we first had irene reach tropical storm i was on board with everyone here...it looked like to me IRENE was going to be a hum dinger for florida ...however i have to go by what i see and conditions change as time goes on..i forecast on the atmospheric conditions not by the computers..so whatever i see happening whether its good or bad im going to state my opnion whether the blog likes it or not..I SEE IRENE BEING PICKED UP BY THIS DEEPENING TROF COMING DOWN THE EAST COAST AND WHISKED OUT TO SEA...A 70% CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING...LIKE I SAID IF YOU GUYS CANT TELL FLORIDA IS 100% OFF THE HOOK THEN YOU ARE ONLY IN A FANTASY WORLD..


if you think anything is 100% in hurricane forecasting you are in fantasy world
Quoting stillwaiting:
that blob off jax looks like its starting to orgaize,man that would be a HUGE fly in the ôntment and if it develops throw all the models out and start over,it would be unpresidented,it sure looks highly suspect on high res loop from cod


WE DON'T WANT IT BECOMING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. That would sling shot Irene right into the North East and that would be brutal. The storm looking like it wants to go out to sea and a low develops behind it and sling shots it right back into the US.
Pretty good link on storm surge:

THANKS! Yes,it is the increased friction of the bottom on the shallow water that stops it from moveing and Allows it to Stack Higher! gottcha.

Lesson for the day.
Quoting Drakoen:


You're still in the cone so no.


had not seen the cone when I asked
Trough split?



If this did anything it could throw the track out the window. Probably won't come to much though.
Everything going crazy! A wobble WSW, possible stalling, trough may not have enough time to pick Irene up, dry air affecting the center, RI still possible, and a blob off of NE FL. This is why I keep saying S FL your not in the clear yet. So many things can change with these crazy tropical systems. Just sayin...

My only "good" aspect of the 11Am advisory is that
she is not forecast to be a Major prior to being closest to Provo

still looking for any positives I can!
Shear must be hard to predict. now its 15-20 kts and hindering strengthening.. all talk has been ideal conditionins and a cat 4 on the way. one of the mysteries of these magnificent storms..
1210. Buhdog
She is dubstepping left. wobble woble

hmmmmmmmmmmm.
Quoting Abacosurf:

Go to the kitchen and get a plate and a bowl.

Fill them with water.

Blow on them.

Which one is easier to displace the water out of??

There you go.


Wow.....You have zero knowledge of fluid dynamics.
Quoting alvarig1263:


Not really, yes we're out of the cone, but more things are affecting Irene's future which may not put S FL in the clear yet.


I HATE night storms. Frances was a real pain--and she lingered for so long. Imagine, sitting in a 100 yr. old wood house (up off the ground) that snaps, creaks, pops and shutters with every gust--and leaks like an old ship? AND being in the dark--trying to get towels under these leaks. The only good thing is that over time, wood swells, and many of the leaks stop!

So, I will probably be up ALL Thurs. Nite on leak patrol. Better than putting up all the shutters, tho!
1214. BrandiQ
Quoting alvarig1263:
Everything going crazy! A wobble WSW, possible stalling, trough may not have enough time to pick Irene up, dry air affecting the center, RI still possible, and a blob off of NE FL. This is why I keep saying S FL your not in the clear yet. So many thing can change with these crazy tropical systems. Just sayin...

Alex I


I hear that! I am still keeping an eye on this one...!
1215. rkay1
Give the West casting a break.  That horse is dead.  Move on.
Quoting Buhdog:
She is dubstepping left. wobble woble

hmmmmmmmmmmm.

Latest TWD for 12Z shows LOW off shore of GA, SC

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
My only "good" aspect of the 11Am advisory is that
she is not forecast to be a Major prior to being closest to Provo

still looking for any positives I can!


you have WU mail
Quoting E46Pilot:
Florida officially out of the cone of confusion.




I just don't see how they are plotting the next point that much further north than what Irene is currently positioned at and heading towards.

Think about it this way, yesterday the XTRP had the straight tajectory aimed at Miami-Dade county. Today, the XTRP is south of that. It leads me to beleive that its forward motion is slightly more West than WNW. Maybe somewhere in between. However, according to their next forcast point, they have it maving in between WNW and NW. I agree it is still generally moving WNW, but closer to West than NW.

Hope it makes sense. Until I see that turn more the NW, I still beleive the models should be slighlty West of their current positions.
something happening off GA/Fla coast?? hmmmm
Right now based upon the latest Hurricane Hunter data, Hurricane Irene appears to have significantly weakened possibly back down to tropical storm strength given the max sustained surface wind measured at 71 mph. Also pressure is steadily rising once again inside the storm. Hispanola is having a much greater effect on Irene than anticipated, most likely due to the slower motion and wobble more west to west-southwestward given the past few recon fixes.
I am getting fed up with the NHC, all this shifting. go from South Florida to barely scraping the NC coast! really wish they would admit they dont know where its going, geez...Irene is looking good though.
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
FISH


Tell that to the people who have already been creamed... or have got it coming in the next few days... or even few hours.
Quoting alvarig1263:
Latest TWD for 12Z shows LOW off shore of GA, SC



That low is expected to dissipate...
Irene seems to be making a pretty decent jog to the west...it may have lost some latitude also...
Old timers down here in Key West (I'm a newby...only have 25yrs of hurricanes here in KW) are telling me to pay attention. And I am, seeing that "blob" off the coast of FL/GA. We don't like storms "coming up the alley" - and looking at radar (not models) - it's not looking like FLA is "hoof the hook" by a long shot. Prayers for our people in Turks/Bahamas. Mind you, if Irene sucks up the alley, it will be too late to evacuate.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Right now based upon the latest Hurricane Hunter data, Hurricane Irene appears to have significantly weakened possibly back down to tropical storm strength given the max sustained surface wind measured at 71 mph. Also pressure is steadily rising once again inside the storm. Hispanola is having a much greater effect on Irene than anticipated, most likely due to the slower motion and wobble more west to west-southwestward given the past few recon fixes.


If this is true, will this bring a further west movement bringing the storm closer to our coast down the road?
Is it me, or visible satellite is showing that Irene is developing eye? It's still open to the SE.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


WE DON'T WANT IT BECOMING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. That would sling shot Irene right into the North East and that would be brutal. The storm looking like it wants to go out to sea and a low develops behind it and sling shots it right back into the US.
,actually would send her out to sea quicker imo,if it formed it should move ne stregthening the trough and pulling irene noth and then nne away from the northeast bahamas imo
Quoting dmh1026:
Fish Storm = No interaction with land at all. The storm stays in the Central Atlantic. Easy to understand..



WELL SIR according to your definition of a fish storm we would never have one...if a storm stays out in the atlantic its going to hit land somewhere down the road whether it will be the azores or england its going to happen...so you better come up with a proper definition of a fish storm regarding the united states mainland...
Quoting Abacosurf:
That confirms the wobble to the WSW.


How does a storm go from 20.6N to 20.5N and the NHC in their advisory still says it's moving WNW??? Even if it's a wobble the movement from one advisory to the next was to the WSW, why lie about that? I'm goint to laugh if Irena misses the next trough, then who knows where she would end up. Not to mention that "thing" off the coast of Georgia, yep, this is getting to be a fun one to track!
Quoting SPLbeater:
I am getting fed up with the NHC, all this shifting. go from South Florida to barely scraping the NC coast! really wish they would admit they dont know where its going, geez...Irene is looking good though.
'


Clouds are pointing west in front-she's going West!!
The COC of Irene is looking ragged. This is great news for the Turk and Caicos because Irene could be easily going under RI right now.

Quoting TropicalXprt:


Wow.....You have zero knowledge of fluid dynamics.
LOL

That is funny...
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Right now based upon the latest Hurricane Hunter data, Hurricane Irene appears to have significantly weakened possibly back down to tropical storm strength given the max sustained surface wind measured at 71 mph. Also pressure is steadily rising once again inside the storm. Hispanola is having a much greater effect on Irene than anticipated, most likely due to the slower motion and wobble more west to west-southwestward given the past few recon fixes.


You can probably throw upwelling into the mix considering it's been over fairly shallow waters in the same area for a long period of time.
I for one am glad they have all these data planes and fancy computers because from a satellite view point this looks like a nightmare. I see the troughs coming down but there is a ull closing in from the east of the storm and interaction from Hispaniola. Not to mention what ever is off the coast of central Fl. and all other radar from Fl. showing west or s.w. motion.Well that's enough of my observations for today. Sincerely wishing everyone in the Bahamas the best esp. Baha,Caicos and the rest. In closing the big boys at the NHC earn their money this time of year even if they can't or don't want to sleep.
Quoting kap333:
Ya never know Wolftribe. Im wondering what that blob is off NE FL. What is that all about!

The models are so insistent about a curve, but Irene obviously has not felt any influence yet. If the trough is gonna do its thing, it better get a move on!




Well there is a lot of talk about Irene "weakening" due to Dry Air and interaction with Hispaniola. We know that a storm weaker would move more westward. Now if a Low does develop north of Irene it changes everything because she might be sheared by the easterly winds around the low which then in turn causes her to weak more and there you go: Westward right in Florida.

I am not saying this will happen but that all cars should now be on the table. The westward card should not be removed until she shows us that she wants to move NW. I am going to be skeptical of an eastward turn until she starts moving NW

Quoting JimboUSMC17:


I just don't see how they are plotting the next point that much further north than what Irene is currently positioned at and heading towards.

Think about it this way, yesterday the XTRP had the straight tajectory aimed at Miami-Dade county. Today, the XTRP is south of that. It leads me to beleive that its forward motion is slightly more West than WNW. Maybe somewhere in between. However, according to their next forcast point, they have it maving in between WNW and NW. I agree it is still generally moving WNW, but closer to West than NW.

Hope it makes sense. Until I see that turn more the NW, I still beleive the models should be slighlty West of their current positions.


Don't expect to see the turn until tomorrow. That is when the storm will be influenced by the trough.
Looks like Kill Devil Hills is out of luck (Again). Jim Cantore heading there?
1240. 7544
looks like we have a new player in the field the new blob now shows on the surface map this could make things more interestin so what effect will this have irene is anyones guess hope some one here can give us a hint she hasnt pulled a surpise yet but now she just might
1241. rkay1
He is referring to it missing the CONUS.  Get off the horse.
Quoting whepton3:


Tell that to the people who have already been creamed... or have got it coming in the next few days... or even few hours.



SCwannabe
something happening off GA/Fla coast?? hmmmm


it just seems to get better and beter...now watch this be our next invest..geez..
Quoting SPLbeater:
I am getting fed up with the NHC, all this shifting. go from South Florida to barely scraping the NC coast! really wish they would admit they dont know where its going, geez...Irene is looking good though.



she sucked in dry air from the mtns of Hispanola...possibly going to change things for the future
1244. GoWVU
I am guessing by 5pm today Charleston will be out of the cone... Which is a good thing!!!
Quoting SPLbeater:
I am getting fed up with the NHC, all this shifting. go from South Florida to barely scraping the NC coast! really wish they would admit they dont know where its going, geez...Irene is looking good though.


If the computer models got it right from the outset, we would not need the NHC, we could just load the model program on our smart-phones, and know weeks in advance if we had to prepare.

Just because the forecast changes doesn't mean the don't know what they're doing, it simply means technology and science is just not there yet when it comes to weather and climate.

I have noticed that over the years, the folks at the NHC have gotten a h*ll of a lot better.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Right now based upon the latest Hurricane Hunter data, Hurricane Irene appears to have significantly weakened possibly back down to tropical storm strength given the max sustained surface wind measured at 71 mph. Also pressure is steadily rising once again inside the storm. Hispanola is having a much greater effect on Irene than anticipated, most likely due to the slower motion and wobble more west to west-southwestward given the past few recon fixes.


I think Irene may have weakened slightly, but it's still a hurricane IMO. Dropsonde in the NW eyewall found surface winds of 80mph. Will be interesting to see what is found in the NE eyewall. Not looking as impressive on satellite imagery.
1247. A4Guy
Amazing how the blog settles down the more FL is out of the cone.

It still seems like there are a few people "concered" enough to think that SoFla is not basically in the clear...but other than some heavy surf and squally weather, we should be just fine. Always a slim chance of something unexpected happening (I have seen unexpected atmosphereic shift in the past with tropical systems), but it's as very low likelihood. I have impact windows, but my parents have shutters - and I am advising them not to close the shutters or pull in the paio furniture.
Quoting charlottefl:


You can probably throw upwelling into the mix considering it's been over fairly shallow waters in the same area for a long period of time.

Exactly. I agree with both of you guys.
Quoting Nolehead:


SCwannabe
something happening off GA/Fla coast?? hmmmm


it just seems to get better and beter...now watch this be our next invest..geez..


Yeah, I just don't know how it will effect Irene... we need Levi for this one
Quoting rkay1:
FLORIDIANS OF THE BLOG! Give it a damn rest.  It's over. There is no West movement, no matter how much you pray to your raingods.  Get over the denial already, its tiresome. Your like that team behind by 10 runs in the 9th inning with 2 outs and still thinking you have a shot.


We'll see.... ;-)
Quoting palmbaywhoo:


If this is true, will this bring a further west movement bringing the storm closer to our coast down the road?


Hard to say really.

Quoting charlottefl:


You can probably throw upwelling into the mix considering it's been over fairly shallow waters in the same area for a long period of time.


Good point there. Goes hand in hand with the slower motion of the storm.

69Viking

Quoting Abacosurf:
That confirms the wobble to the WSW.


How does a storm go from 20.6N to 20.5N and the NHC in their advisory still says it's moving WNW??? Even if it's a wobble the movement from one advisory to the next was to the WSW, why lie about that? I'm goint to laugh if Irena misses the next trough, then who knows where she would end up. Not to mention that "thing" off the coast of Georgia, yep, this is getting to be a fun one to track
!


yes it does!!
1253. scCane
Take note that Hispaniola most mountainous region is directly south of the center which is cutting off Irene's inflow. Once it passes the island it should start strengthening again.
Quoting Abacosurf:
LOL

That is funny...


Thought so too.. I liked the thing with the bowl... pretty good.
Quoting alvarig1263:
Everything going crazy! A wobble WSW, possible stalling, trough may not have enough time to pick Irene up, dry air affecting the center, RI still possible, and a blob off of NE FL. This is why I keep saying S FL your not in the clear yet. So many things can change with these crazy tropical systems. Just sayin...



I can understand the wobble and the dry air in the center....

But how come the other stuff wasn't picked up like the blob and the trough speed?
Quoting GoWVU:
I am guessing by 5pm today Charleston will be out of the cone... Which is a good thing!!!


not if hispanolia weakens her a bit...could cause a slight shift back to the west...sorry...
1258. Vero1
Quoting rkay1:
FLORIDIANS OF THE BLOG! Give it a damn rest.  It's over. There is no West movement, no matter how much you pray to your raingods.  Get over the denial already, its tiresome. Your like that team behind by 10 runs in the 9th inning with 2 outs and still thinking you have a shot.



It is not over until it dissipates!
Quoting zoomiami:


Just because you are reading all of the posts does not mean that others who can only check in once and a while can go back hundreds of posts to see whats going on.

Especially for those of us who sometimes can only use our phones to see what is going on.

First of all it wasn't "hundreds" of posts ago. Post 795, then again around 875. So I guess it is ok for someone to just "pop" in and ask a legitamate question and not run the risk of being sarcastically reamed by some dork on here to read the posts to find out! You're damned if you do and your damned if you don't!
Quoting TropicalXprt:


Wow.....You have zero knowledge of fluid dynamics.
Here you go...

Exactly fits my description to a tee.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

I have seen the difference personally.

Why am I replying to a troll??
1262. dmh1026
Quoting cloudburst2011:



WELL SIR according to your definition of a fish storm we would never have one...if a storm stays out in the atlantic its going to hit land somewhere down the road whether it will be the azores or england its going to happen...so you better come up with a proper definition of a fish storm regarding the united states mainland...

Have you never seen a tropical cyclone stay in the Atlantic with no land interaction? I've seen plenty of them. I call them FISH storms as do most other's here.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


not if hispanolia weakens her a bit...could cause a slight shift back to the west...sorry...


I live in CHS and I'm still a bit nervous...
1264. Buhdog
Quoting rkay1:
Give the West casting a break.  That horse is dead.  Move on.




uhm did you see the latest fix? clearly you did not..if so you would agree wobble wobble. I just call it like i see it...don't get mad.
Quoting RussianWinter:


I can understand the wobble and the dry air in the center....

But how come the other stuff wasn't picked up like the blob and the trough speed?


Sorry, "picked up" by what?
1266. 900MB
Quoting scCane:
Take note that Hispaniola most mountainous region is directly south of the center which is cutting off Irene's inflow. Once it passes the island it should start strengthening again.


Agree.
Quoting 7544:
looks like we have a new player in the field the new blob now shows on the surface map this could make things more interestin so what effect will this have irene is anyones guess hope some one here can give us a hint she hasnt pulled a surpise yet but now she just might


Isn't that what happend to Jeanne, and what caused her to do the loop d loop.
Quoting 69Viking:


How does a storm go from 20.6N to 20.5N and the NHC in their advisory still says it's moving WNW??? Even if it's a wobble the movement from one advisory to the next was to the WSW, why lie about that? I'm goint to laugh if Irena misses the next trough, then who knows where she would end up. Not to mention that "thing" off the coast of Georgia, yep, this is getting to be a fun one to track!


Posted that awhile back , looks like some just can't handle the truth, not sayin it won't go where the NHC has forecasted it to, but why not be truthful about the direction, simple as that!
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Right now based upon the latest Hurricane Hunter data, Hurricane Irene appears to have significantly weakened possibly back down to tropical storm strength given the max sustained surface wind measured at 71 mph. Also pressure is steadily rising once again inside the storm. Hispanola is having a much greater effect on Irene than anticipated, most likely due to the slower motion and wobble more west to west-southwestward given the past few recon fixes.

Latest IR isn't very promising for Irene as well. I see a significant drop, but probably will retain minimal hurricane strength (80mph).

But if recon is indeed finding that, then that is not out of the question too.
"blob" not going to go north of Irene from what i see. It looks like the two will collide which that would be interesting. I think Irene would suck up the blob creature and eat it from dinner. Yet if the blob becomes a low and moves far enough west over Florida it would be the door open to turn the storm into the Carolinas.

That is what I am looking at. Wow the weather is unpredictable. Where was this blob yesterday lol?
1271. Patrap
Quoting rkay1:
SPECIAL UPDATE: The only way FLORIDA will be effected is if it detaches from America and floats about 250-300 miles East.


You never know... LOL!
Quoting Nolehead:
looks like it might hit just a tad to the south of the next nhc mark...just dont see that big turn happening anytime soon...but it's just me..
which big turn?left? right?
1274. TBird78
I love watching people argue about the weather and predictions. It's like watching redneck cagefights!

It's ridiculous as hell but you can't turn away because it's hilarious!

This storm will pass south of the NHC track in the next few hours. This is definitely a Florida storm.
11:00am Advisory
Click image for enlarged view
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I think Irene may have weakened slightly, but it's still a hurricane IMO. Dropsonde in the NW eyewall found surface winds of 80mph. Will be interesting to see what is found in the NE eyewall. Not looking as impressive on satellite imagery.


Will be interesting to see what the NHC does with this new data showing significant weakening and deterioration of the inner structure of the hurricane in the next update.
NEW STEERING MAP:


The AB high has once again nosed W slightly as well as changing orientation a bit. The trough appears to be trying to flatten as well. Texas ridge is roughly the same. No major changes but:

Link
Quoting SPLbeater:
I am getting fed up with the NHC, all this shifting. go from South Florida to barely scraping the NC coast! really wish they would admit they dont know where its going, geez...Irene is looking good though.


They plot their track as a consensus of model track and model track changes as the conditions change; what were your thoughts on how they did it? Should they stick to a track despite the fact that it's wrong? Or do you have a way of making a storm conform to a specific track?
Quoting 7544:
looks like we have a new player in the field the new blob now shows on the surface map this could make things more interestin so what effect will this have irene is anyones guess hope some one here can give us a hint she hasnt pulled a surpise yet but now she just might


I think the most likely outcome is that Irene attempts to absorb the low pressure blob. This could do anything to the track, it's very difficult to forecast.
tigger...it looks like a reasonably safe bet this won't be a Charleston event...in fact, I think the biggest impact we're gonna feel is some flooding...as we will have high astronomical tides this weekend...
1282. WxLogic
Wide open for any northerly fluctuations:

Quoting TBird78:
I love watching people argue about the weather and predictions. It's like watching redneck cagefights!

It's ridiculous as hell but you can't turn away because it's hilarious!

LMAO
I have a flight planned for 5pm Friday night out of Myrtle Beach.... Anyone have any ideas on if that will happen or not? Our local forcast states possible tropical weather for that time.
it should be noted that the "westward" motion is taking Irene into much warmer water. The area just east of south florida is extremely hot compared to areas further to the east.
Quoting rkay1:
SPECIAL UPDATE: The only way FLORIDA will be effected is if it detaches from America and floats about 250-300 miles East.


You, sir, obviously DIDN'T live thru JEANNE!
1287. Patrap
I don't think the storm will hit S. FL unless it makes some crazy drastic move, but I do think it will skirt the coast closer than they are predicting with the forcast path.
if she does weaken to a ts it would def effect the models as their expectingbher to be a major in the next 24hrs,big differnce in sterring a ts and a major,only time will tell,im guessing it wont happen and she'l go outto sea
Quoting SCwannabe:


I live in CHS and I'm still a bit nervous...


im in Chas too...and will not start feeling better untill she is due east of me and still trucking... worried that hispanolia is gonna cause more shifts...and not only that...this thing is pretty big...even if she ran the coast and was 60 miles out we would still get some vicious storms for a while
Looks like Irene is following in parallell the coastline of Hispaniola.

The next forecast point for Irene seems too far north.

The 7 PM track might have SC under the gun.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
"blob" not going to go north of Irene from what i see. It looks like the two will collide which that would be interesting. I think Irene would suck up the blob creature and eat it from dinner. Yet if the blob becomes a low and moves far enough west over Florida it would be the door open to turn the storm into the Carolinas.

That is what I am looking at. Wow the weather is unpredictable. Where was this blob yesterday lol?


It's the result of a pretty big thunderstorm complex that came off shore last night, but looks like it might have detached from the front.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Will be interesting to see what the NHC does with this new data showing significant weakening and deterioration of the inner structure of the hurricane in the next update.


I think they'll be reluctant to lower the wind speed, as it may make people complacent when in reality Irene could still strengthen a lot when it gets away from Hispaniola.
Quoting Nolehead:

69Viking

Quoting Abacosurf:
That confirms the wobble to the WSW.


How does a storm go from 20.6N to 20.5N and the NHC in their advisory still says it's moving WNW??? Even if it's a wobble the movement from one advisory to the next was to the WSW, why lie about that? I'm goint to laugh if Irena misses the next trough, then who knows where she would end up. Not to mention that "thing" off the coast of Georgia, yep, this is getting to be a fun one to track
!


yes it does!!


maybe NHC just for got to put the S between the W's,since it's been wnw from the getgo pretty much
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Latest IR isn't very promising for Irene as well. I see a significant drop, but probably will retain minimal hurricane strength (80mph).

But if recon is indeed finding that, then that is not out of the question too.


Seems quite reasonable. Would not surprise me to see further weakening throughout the day as the current storm motion as shown by the last few Hurricane Hunter fixes shows the storm closer to Hispanola and moving slower.
The guys at HAARP are probably working overtime. Good job guys you saved Florida. If only this was real and they could also save the Bahamas and NC.
Quoting rkay1:
FLORIDIANS OF THE BLOG! Give it a damn rest. It's over. There is no West movement, no matter how much you pray to your raingods. Get over the denial already, its tiresome. Your like that team behind by 10 runs in the 9th inning with 2 outs and still thinking you have a shot.



I for take offense to the sports analogy. the storm may be over for Florida but never quit in sports.
1302. 7544
this new low could throw a wrench in the models thay havent seen this yet

also if it gets close enough to irene it could distrupt her and we all know where she could wind up anyone getting dejeve lol
Quoting presslord:
tigger...it looks like a reasonably safe bet this won't be a Charleston event...in fact, I think the biggest impact we're gonna feel is some flooding...as we will have high astronomical tides this weekend...


lots of wind and rain...but still not takin my eyes off her
IMO Floridians have every right to be on this blog right now and they should. Models are "Best Guesses" and that is all; NO MODEL IS PERFECT. Obviously, things are looking much better for Florida, but to many wobbles to the West and Florida might get unlucky.

On the other hand if you are a Floridian and your wishcasting Irene to hit Florida you must be crazy. You obviously don't know what a Cat-3 or Cat-4 Hurricane can do, although you "Should".

- Seanyboy :)
GFS soon
1308. RM706
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 23 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 24/12Z,18Z A. 25/00Z
B. AFXXX 1409A IRENE B. NOAA9 1509A IRENE
C. 24/0930Z C. 24/1730Z
D. 22.3N 73.8W F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
E. 24/1130Z TO 24/18Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 73
A. 25/00Z,06Z
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42 B. AFXXX 1709A IRENE
A. 25/00Z C. 24/2115Z
B. NOAA2 1609A IRENE D. 23.6N 75.2W
C. 24/20Z E. 24/2330Z TO 25/06Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 71
A. 25/12Z A. 25/09,12,15Z
B. NOAA9 1809A IRENE B. AFXXX 1909A IRENE
C. 25/0530Z C. 25/0600Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT D. 24.8N 76.0W
E. 25/0830Z TO 25/15Z
FLIGHT SEVEN -- NOAA 42 F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
A. 25/12Z
B. NOAA2 2009A IRENE
C. 25/08Z
D. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES,
P-3 AND G-IV MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP


Quoting Abacosurf:
Here you go...

Exactly fits my description to a tee.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

I have seen the difference personally.

Why am I replying to a troll??


Right, anyone who disagrees on this blog is labeled a troll.

Sir, I've studied fluid dynamics for over 35 years. Water displacement and storm surge is two different things. Your example of a storm surge by blowing water on a plate vs a bowl is highly unscientific. Wind moves water the same distance regardless of the depth. Hence a 25 foot storm surge will be 25 foot whether the water comes from 100 foot deep, or 10 foot deep.
1310. Patrap
This has to be the worste forecast I have seen from the models in years. They just keep shifting. And the blob off the Florida coast if it does develope would cause Irene to go farther out to sea.. Not closer to the us
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Will be interesting to see what the NHC does with this new data showing significant weakening and deterioration of the inner structure of the hurricane in the next update.


First they will wait to see more of the recon data, only one pass throught the center, there will be several more in the next few hours. No data yet in the SW or NW quads.
Quoting JimboUSMC17:


I just don't see how they are plotting the next point that much further north than what Irene is currently positioned at and heading towards.

Think about it this way, yesterday the XTRP had the straight tajectory aimed at Miami-Dade county. Today, the XTRP is south of that. It leads me to beleive that its forward motion is slightly more West than WNW. Maybe somewhere in between. However, according to their next forcast point, they have it maving in between WNW and NW. I agree it is still generally moving WNW, but closer to West than NW.

Hope it makes sense. Until I see that turn more the NW, I still beleive the models should be slighlty West of their current positions.


want another "chilling" statement. The GFDL has been the best model over the last couple years from what i have heard. It kept insisting that the storm would move into Florida for the longest time before finally shifting over the past few hours.

Ugh. Poor timing on the first Wilmington, NC hit in ages. My family is visiting and my house is filled with babies!
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Seems quite reasonable. Would not surprise me to see further weakening throughout the day as the current storm motion as shown by the last few Hurricane Hunter fixes shows the storm closer to Hispanola and moving slower.

Very likely. Yes.
Quoting SeanyBoy:
IMO Floridians have every right to be on this blog right now and they should. Models are "Best Guesses" and that is all; NO MODEL IS PERFECT. Obviously, things are looking much better for Florida, but to many wobbles to the West and Florida might get unlucky.

On the other hand if you are a Floridian and your wishcasting Irene to hit Florida you must be crazy. You obviously don't know what a Cat-3 or Cat-4 Hurricane can do, although you "Should".

- Seanyboy :)


I went through Charley and Wilma living here in SW FL. I know what Cat. 3's and Cat. 4's can do. Lol
Quoting alvarig1263:


Sorry, "picked up" by what?


I didn't see those things in the models. Those darn "pop-up" storms and unscheduled timings and miscalculations and other minor things that we can't see aren't in the models. They all play a big part in the grand scheme of things, will they always be there? Can we make them more predictable?
Quoting Floodman:


They plot their track as a consensus of model track and model track changes as the conditions change; what were your thoughts on how they did it? Should they stick to a track despite the fact that it's wrong? Or do you have a way of making a storm conform to a specific track?


Exactly, the NHC's job is primarily to save lives and protect property. It's not a contest on who can predict or forecast better.


NHC Mission Statement

The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.
Quoting rkay1:
The FL casters in this blog remind me a lot of the low/middle income family that votes Republican.  When will you learn they don't give a hoot about you?  When will you accept Irene is not coming your way.  You may not even see a cloud from her.  Actually,  it might be sunnier than usual.


You know, you just have become the first person I have put on ignore in the whole bunch of years I have been a member here. As a matter of fact, now I think is a great time for me to start cleaning the house.
Quoting Matt1989:
This has to be the worste forecast I have seen from the models in years. They just keep shifting. And the blob off the Florida coast if it does develope would cause Irene to go farther out to sea.. Not closer to the us


Latest TWD as of 12Z indicates it is dissipating, but who knows what's gonna happen next.
Quoting Matt1989:
This has to be the worste forecast I have seen from the models in years. They just keep shifting. And the blob off the Florida coast if it does develope would cause Irene to go farther out to sea.. Not closer to the us


Not necessarily. Interactions between lows are incredibly difficult to forecast, and as the new blob is moving south, it's difficult to say what effect this could have on Irene's track.
That blob is just some thunderstorms firing at the end of a cold front, nothing much exciting, Irenw ill probably absorb it or push it aside 1 of the 2

The Low is forecast by the OPC to dissipate very soon btw
1324. Patrap
NEW BLOG!
Quoting tiggeriffic:


lots of wind and rain...but still not takin my eyes off her


not even bettin' on that at this point
Quoting rkay1:
The FL casters in this blog remind me a lot of the low/middle income family that votes Republican.  When will you learn they don't give a hoot about you?  When will you accept Irene is not coming your way.  You may not even see a cloud from her.  Actually,  it might be sunnier than usual.
I suppose you support the new class we have created....The slavery class.
1328. WxLogic
12Z GFS Init:

1329. Buhdog
Quoting rkay1:
Oh, here we go.  Is it that time already to be mentioning the 1 or 2 storms that are the exceptions to the rules?  Sure, some teams come back from 10 runs down in the 9th.  Guess what? Its rare, next to impossible.  Get over it. 



are you lucreto/stormtop? You are very combative...why spend so much time banging FL people or people in general that are claiming she is slightly south of the forecast point? Did you ask anyone of those people if they also thought it meant anything at all in relation to the path? It is going n and ne eventually...but a 100 miles is a big deal right now. Try tracking with less emotion, it will go a long way if possible.

Quoting alvarig1263:


I went through Charley and Wilma living here in SW FL. I know what Cat. 3's and Cat. 4's can do. Lol


Exactly why I said "although you should"
Quoting Matt1989:
This has to be the worste forecast I have seen from the models in years. They just keep shifting. And the blob off the Florida coast if it does develope would cause Irene to go farther out to sea.. Not closer to the us




+++ 1000 someone who knows about weather...we need more like you on here..
1332. 7544
another wobble west going to 72 west soon ?



















/
I wonder what the low off the fla ne coast will impact the track of irene
Quoting Matt1989:
This has to be the worste forecast I have seen from the models in years. They just keep shifting. And the blob off the Florida coast if it does develope would cause Irene to go farther out to sea.. Not closer to the us

x 100

CaneHunter031472

The guys at HAARP are probably working overtime. Good job guys you saved Florida. If only this was real and they could also save the Bahamas and NC.


things that make you go hummmm...sometimes the unrealistic could be..just sayin..
Quoting TBird78:
I love watching people argue about the weather and predictions. It's like watching redneck cagefights!

It's ridiculous as hell but you can't turn away because it's hilarious!




exactly . LMAO ... reality show in the making ?




BTW.. had a little rant in my Blog about the term FISH STORM, please feel free to look at it.. and give me some ideas. Comment #143
Quoting RussianWinter:


I didn't see those things in the models. Those darn "pop-up" storms and unscheduled timings and miscalculations and other minor things that we can't see aren't in the models. They all play a big part in the grand scheme of things, will they always be there? Can we make them more predictable?


It definitely is pretty hard to predict them, but once they are noticed by the models then they can predict where Irene is going to go from there. But as this point anything can happen, and we just need to take Irene one hour at a time until it dissipates.
Quoting rkay1:
Really? Really? You people just don't give up, do you? There's always a chance for it to come your way, right? Go play the lotto, your odds are better at winning than seeing any major changes with Irene.



We'll see, rkay
Quoting rushisaband:



exactly . LMAO ... reality show in the making ?


that's why we're all here...it's FUN
Quoting wolftribe2009:
I swear the nest person to call IRENE a FISH STORM is going to have a bucket of crow thrown at you by ME! This ISN"T a Fish Storm because she already hit the isalnds in the eastern Caribbean and the Bahamas also are in serious trouble. All this talk of Florida and the Carolinas but no one is talking about Irene's first date partners in the Bahamas.

CAT 3-4 in the Bahamas=Disaster also=NO FISH STORM


Thanks, at least someone on here understands that there are actual people in the Bahamas whose live will be seriously disrupted.
I am not taking Charleston out of it. I in fact have said they might be the eventual landfall. I am not buying the latest models shifting so far east. Now everybody is firing off fireworks and having parties over thinking it will miss the US now.

BEWARE! The trend this year goes like this. Just when NOAA starts to say something will happen and become convinced that it will; all hell breaks loose and the storm has a mind of it's own to do whatever it wishes that is the opposite of what is being predicted. I find it slightly amusing (Amusing because the weather continues to prove it does whatever it wants to do) that NOAA had the models come out shifting far to the east and then all the sudden Irene shifts west like she knows what they are saying. She is obviously playing with us. She is such a tease lol.

Case in point: Emily and Don
1344. rkay1
Uh oh.  We don't like to read "OUT TO SEA".  You will upset the hive mind.
Quoting Bassfishing123:
Quoting Matt1989:
This has to be the worste forecast I have seen from the models in years. They just keep shifting. And the blob off the Florida coast if it does develope would cause Irene to go farther out to sea.. Not closer to the us

x 100

Quoting SeanyBoy:
IMO Floridians have every right to be on this blog right now and they should. Models are "Best Guesses" and that is all; NO MODEL IS PERFECT. Obviously, things are looking much better for Florida, but to many wobbles to the West and Florida might get unlucky.

On the other hand if you are a Floridian and your wishcasting Irene to hit Florida you must be crazy. You obviously don't know what a Cat-3 or Cat-4 Hurricane can do, although you "Should".

- Seanyboy :)


Thank you for pointing that out. Having been through every storm since 1985...Georges and Wilma, down here in the Lower Keys - Key West...we have every right to comment and pay attention. Have you ever lost your home and cars to a hurricane and had to deal with FEMA? I have and 25% of the KW pop. when Wilma hit.
1346. j0nd03
Wouldn't the cut off low fight the bridging of the bermuda and texas high pressure? This would create more weakness towards the bermuda high allowing Irene to move a little more west?

My first question, sorry if it isn't worded correctly.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Irene continuing to entrain dry air into her center from her southern semi-circle, ultimately breaking down her southern and eastern eyewall and thus exposing her inner core to dry air. I expect a slight downgrade to 95mph at the next update from the NHC, at 11am EDT.

However, this does not change the longer-term intensity forecast. The intensification expected may be halted a little, but I still expect this to top out at low-end category 4, with a strong cat 2 or weak cat 3 upon landfall...if she makes landfall anywhere in the U.S.

Prayers and thoughts for those in the Bahamas.

click image for animation
It does, however, potentially shift the track further to the West, agreed?
Quoting TropicalXprt:


Wow.....You have zero knowledge of fluid dynamics.


But he did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Good morning.

A couple of quick posts for the morning.

Visible imagery shows significant outflow boundaries on the NW side of the circulation which confirms that dry air has been ingested by Irene yet again. This has been a recurring problem from before it was even classified as a TD.

The source of this dry air is probably downsloping winds from the mountains of Hispaniola that are warming and drying and then being sucked into the SW side of the system and then being ejected on the NW side after traversing the entire flow inside Irene.

This will probably result in a steady state for the hurricane for the next several hours until it pulls far enough away from Hispaniola to only have moist ocean air as the power source for the internal hear engine. By tonight Irene should start to strengthen and expand.
Link

First time the eye is really starting show up on visible , Irene is intensifying not weakening imo.
I'm of the opinion that Irene also won't affect Florida too much except some gusty winds/rain, primarily on the eastern half of the peninsula, plus high seas along the east coast. That said, Floridians should still watch Irene carefully until it passes their latitude on a N to NW heading.
Quoting SCwannabe:


amen to that one!!


He made #5 on my list!
Quoting 69Viking:


He made #5 on my list!


I love your Picture...Go Vikes!!
is the bermuda High still supposed to build into the western atlantic this Friday?
NEW BLOG!!
Quoting wolftribe2009:
"blob" not going to go north of Irene from what i see. It looks like the two will collide which that would be interesting. I think Irene would suck up the blob creature and eat it from dinner. Yet if the blob becomes a low and moves far enough west over Florida it would be the door open to turn the storm into the Carolinas.

That is what I am looking at. Wow the weather is unpredictable. Where was this blob yesterday lol?
Wouldn't this "blob" actually HELP the forecast for Irene!? Wouldn't the troughs have the same affect on this blob as it would with Irene, only earlier? It could help the timing of it all.
1359. dipchip
TWC says the storm is rapidly intensifying. The central pressure is down 1 milli-bar in the past 15 hours. What is slow intensification? 15 to 20 knts of SW shear. Their reporters may need extra sun shield for a few more days.
Motion over the past couple of hours has definitely been more towards the West. We'll have to see what if any changes that has on long term track.
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
It looks as if the Florida-casting will not stop until Irene has officially entered the history books.

I predict the Florida-casts for Irene should begin to taper down sometime around mid-October. It's silly though.

Imagine it's late May or early June, and a storm system is threatening to produce a major tornado outbreak in and near Minnesota and Wisconsin. Then imagine that a bunch of people from Kansas and Missouri get on a blog and insist that the tornado threat is really going to be in Kansas and Missouri. That would be rather uncool would it not?

Please give the wishcasting for Florida a rest. Plenty of major hurricanes have plowed into Florida in the past and it will surely happen again. You will have your day, though you may regret it. This is not your day, however, and I for one and relieved about that. On the other hand, I am worried for those further north. 'Nuff said.
Quoting WxLogic:
Wide open for any northerly fluctuations:

You mean wide opening to weakening, which means further West.
Got the cuban radar up,but cant find an available loop. Anybody got a link to a Cuban loop radar? Patrap er Levi?
Quoting rkay1:
SPECIAL UPDATE: The only way FLORIDA will be effected is if it detaches from America and floats about 250-300 miles East.

Who died and left him GOD?
Quoting Floodman:


They plot their track as a consensus of model track and model track changes as the conditions change; what were your thoughts on how they did it? Should they stick to a track despite the fact that it's wrong? Or do you have a way of making a storm conform to a specific track?
Ya really its not like its a Magnet with the track being metal lol.
Was that a jog to the W and WSW close to the end of the frames of Irene...

NOAA Link

..if so, that may change a bit of the course some!
Hudson, FL weather
Quoting kflhuds05:
Was that a jog to the W and WSW close to the end of the frames of Irene...

NOAA Link

..if so, that may change a bit of the course some!
Hudson, FL weather


hard to tell without a radar but it looks like it
Bahamian officials are expecting hurricane Irene to be near New Providence by Thursday, and out by Friday morning.

Arthur Rolle, our head wx guy, also said the track should bend sufficiently to the East to prevent the Northwest Bahamas from experiencing the worst of the storm.

Talk about track confidence!

I am wondering if people remember that today is the anniversary of Andrew's trek through The Bahamas.
The main event this evening! Clash of the Atlantic fluffies! In this corner, a tough young lady from across the sea-- Irene!! And in this corner, a local girl, a spinner off the old front The Nameless Newbie-- *DING DING!* And there's the bell!
11:00am Advisory
Click image for enlarged view
1373. BA
Quoting SPLbeater:
I am getting fed up with the NHC, all this shifting. go from South Florida to barely scraping the NC coast! really wish they would admit they dont know where its going, geez...Irene is looking good though.


Are you serious? ...margin of track error > 5 days out is extremely large...nobody is going to be any different with any sort of consistency. You have to realize that nobody can truly predict what all the patterns will do, when it changes, all forecasters have to change with it.
Quoting BA:


Are you serious? ...margin of track error > 5 days out is extremely large...nobody is going to be any different with any sort of consistency. You have to realize that nobody can truly predict what all the patterns will do, when it changes, all forecasters have to change with it.


Yes i do know that, but they have shifted way further then 250 miles...going up a third of the Eastern Seaboard is a large shift
North side of eye visible, south side seems to have a thunderstorm up over top of it seen on visible...
1378. jonelu
Quoting Patrap:
wow...look at all the dry air over Tx...thats awful.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Got the cuban radar up,but cant find an available loop. Anybody got a link to a Cuban loop radar? Patrap er Levi?



http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILL AS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw0 1a.gif
Link

Click on a radar site in the map.
Quoting DellOperator:



http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILL AS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw0 1a.gif


Got it
1382. RM706
5.8 Earthquake in Virginia, DC and New York.
we doomed
Quoting FLWaterFront:
It looks as if the Florida-casting will not stop until Irene has officially entered the history books.

I predict the Florida-casts for Irene should begin to taper down sometime around mid-October. It's silly though.

Imagine it's late May or early June, and a storm system is threatening to produce a major tornado outbreak in and near Minnesota and Wisconsin. Then imagine that a bunch of people from Kansas and Missouri get on a blog and insist that the tornado threat is really going to be in Kansas and Missouri. That would be rather uncool would it not?

Please give the wishcasting for Florida a rest. Plenty of major hurricanes have plowed into Florida in the past and it will surely happen again. You will have your day, though you may regret it. This is not your day, however, and I for one and relieved about that. On the other hand, I am worried for those further north. 'Nuff said.


Hey guy, this is an Internet Discussion forum. If you dont like to hear peoples opinions then leave. People will always say its heading west, north, or any other direction. If you want a no BS discussion and be surrounded by meteorologists who know exactly what its doing, apply for a job at the National Hurricane Center.

That being said, this storm is totally hitting Florida.
Quoting BA:


Are you serious? ...margin of track error > 5 days out is extremely large...nobody is going to be any different with any sort of consistency. You have to realize that nobody can truly predict what all the patterns will do, when it changes, all forecasters have to change with it.


Sorry but i agree with this poster. NHC shouldnt publish 5 day tracks anymore. The margin of error is more like 1000+ miles. Hell they might as well put the 5 day cone around the whole earth.