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Category 2 Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2008

Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.

Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped.


Figure 1. Experimental storm surge heights for Ike. There is a 10% chance the storm surge from Ike will exceed these values. Data courtesy of NOAA.

The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 50% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years.


Figure 2. Comparison of the potential damage from storm surge and waves on a scale of 1 to 6 (left scale, and corresponding to little "x" marks on the plot), as a function of total Integrated Kinetic Energy in Tera-joules (IKE, on the right scale, corresponding to the little squares on the plot). Hurricane Ike at 12:30pm EDT had an IKE of 134, 10% higher than the value of 122 Katrina had at landfall in Mississippi. Ike's amount of wind energy can generate storm surge and wave damage rated at 5.2 on a scale of 1 to 6, worse than Katrina's 5.1 at landfall. Image credit:"Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy" by Mark Powell and Timothy Reinhold.

All this energy is also going into the waves in the Gulf of Mexico, and the offshore oil rigs can expect to receive a terrific battering. At 8:50am CDT, waves at the Buoy 42001 180nm south of Louisiana were 28 feet and growing. NOAA's Wavewatch III model is predicting wave heights up to 13 meters from Ike on Friday. For comparison, Hurricane Ivan of 2004 generated 27 meter high waves in the Gulf of Mexico. Surf heights of 15 feet have been reported at beaches along the Florida Panhandle, and tides are also running extremely high. Tides are 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida, and one foot above normal in Galveston. The water level will continue to rise as Ike approaches Texas, and NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast (Figure 1) is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 24-27 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.

What should Texas residents do?
We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. The chances of hundreds of people being killed in this storm is high if people do not heed evacuation orders to leave low-lying areas threatened by high storm surges. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive.

I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast

Mid Gulf Buoy 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA (42001)

I'll have much more in this afternoon's blog, including a look at the rest of the tropics. We've got a new area of disturbed weather to watch, Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The wave north of the Antilies and the wave between SA and Africa are the two waves that need to be watched after Ike leaves the area. Imo the Wave between Sa Africa has a beeter shot of developing.
1002. keyjo50
Quoting airChrist:




Oh you must've missed it: TWC just recently moved from Atlanta to Auckland. Chalk it up to a simple misunderstanding.


You just made me spit water on my keyboard.

Now how am I supposed to get my thesis done? Hurricanes, coffee ont he keyboard....it's never gonna get done.
http://www.dot.state.al.us/internetdocs/apps/bureaus/design/its/publicits/CameraList.aspx

Use this link instead and look at camera C70 and C71. Sorry, new around here for posting, but long time lurker......
Updated Blog Post

Vortex fixes still right of track.
1005. TheSpaz
Well right here on the coast Ingleside TX.
we are expecting a surge of 4-6 feet and lots of flooding. Tropical storm force winds are expected and a beautiful Hurricane Warning for the 3 quarters of the coast.
OUSHAWN - Ike is not weakening that much. The pressure rise signifies that Ike's outer eyewall is becoming the dominant eyewall now and the energy transfer from the inner eyewall is now being replaced by the outer eyewall. Appearance on satellite imagery has improved with deeper convection in the outer eyewall. Also Ike is moistening up his atmosphere on the western side blocking any dry air out.
Anyone remember Lili in 02? I watched every forcaster on every channel say verbatim "there is no possible way for this storm to turn north and head this way" for more than 24 hours. Then she hit the 90 degree mark and headed north. Came in at Morgan City with no evacs called. Thank GOD she fell apart (I believe she was a 4 and dropped to a 1). I didn't sleep at all that night. Since then, I don't trust them until they're gone! On another note, people are talking about the birds acting weird, my beagle was freaked out when Gustav was approaching. He's acting the same way today. Funny how they can sense things. I'm on guard (since I am on the westbank of Jefferson parish) and am ready to leave at a moments notice!
Quoting oddspeed:

buoy readings for IKE don't jive with wind speed.

buoy is reading 49 mph winds with gusts up to 60 mph.

could the 28 foot wave heights cause malfunctions?


Probably; hard to measure wind when you are surrounded by 28 foot waves (they will block the wind when the buoy is in a trough).
OUSHAWN

Pressure dropping, very large wind field, surf/tides that are exceptionally above normal - Cat 1? Don't think so.

*POOF*
1010. jb2five
Quoting leftovers:
Going against the NHc cone? High odds the cone delivers.
Of course the cone will deliver NOW. Its only 36 hours out and the cone goes from west of Corpus Christi to east of Lake Charles!
Quoting OUSHAWN:
I just don't think I should having to spend all this time trying to defend myself. True, I'm not an expert and never claimed to be. I also have said there are many on here more educated than myself on weather and tropical systems. However, I feel I have also proven enough of myself on here not to be totally ridiculed and lashed out at just because I felt a storm will be weaker and hit in a different spot. I truely feel this is the best site around with extremely knowledgeable people who give excellent insight on these storms. Let's not turn it into a bashing site like a freaking teenage chatroom would be like.


I agree with you here OUShawn, Gustav was the same way. Nobody saw any reason for it not to blow up once it hit the gulf, but this never occured even though it was still a dangerous storm when it made landfall. I too don't think it will get dramatically stronger (maybe 110 mph) if at all.
1012. NCX
GOM WV Loop 7 hr run. Ping Pong ball eye gets squashed about midway
Link
I am in Gonzales LA
Fay was weak as well at one point as an invest it lost almost all of its convection and people were calling it RIP. Maybe 91l will fall apart there is always a shot of it but it is in a marginal area conducive for development to during dmax tommorow moring we shall se weatehr or not it can fire some good convection.
Quoting TRed:


yea we lost our food as well. i wouldnt go that far, i think we will have power, but all this talk of shifting track north is getting me nervous.


everyone in the neighborhood had a big bbq to use up the meat before it spoiled.. once cooked, it keeps better in an ice chest. We ate great for two days.
Quoting keyjo50:


Nick
funny and he isn't even the worst of the lot.
is Houma and/or Morgan City under either a mandatory or a voluntary evacuation? My husband's doing treework over there, and neither of us are familiar with the area.
1018. keyjo50
StormW -- Snory Cantore talking about FETCH right now.
Orca - you still think houston to pleasure island landfall?
Quoting OUSHAWN:
This is insane...I never said Ike wouldn't cause some damage or troubles...all I said was that I felt it would hit further east and only as a Cat 1. Guess I would have been better off saying a Cat 5 right on top of New Orleans!!!


I'd say you might have been better off using a different tone. I doubt it's your statements per se...many people have differing opinions on this board, and I don't see them getting the same type of replies.

Maybe consider presenting your comments in a not so abrasive way?
1021. OUSHAWN
996...

I'm 77058. You are the same zip as my ex...lol.

Quoting TomJonesAL:
http://www.dot.state.al.us/internetdocs/apps/bureaus/design/its/publicits/CameraList.aspx

Use this link instead and look at camera C70 and C71. Sorry, new around here for posting, but long time lurker......


Yeah use to live near there that is usually that way if a bad rain comes through but it will get way worse as Ike passes
Wow, Ike has really started moving to the NW (definately running north of the forecast points).
1024. 996tt
Quoting F1or1d1an:

Then you must not live anywhere on the GOM?

We're being pounded here in the FL panhandle. The MS Gulf coast is getting pounded. The LA Gulf coast is starting to see the water rise (up over 4 feet at the Algiers lock right now). No - 4/5 foot surge is just silly - more like 15 - 20 ft surge likely...


Jut got back from the pier. Swell was larger in Gustav, but the water is a bit higher. 17th is flooded and water up to edge after toll between go kart track area and board walk. It may be in the road once high tide tolls in.
1025. Drakoen
Ike still unchanged. Clear signs that the outflow to the west is being restricted. A lot of dry air to the west of Ike. Ike is moving to the north of the eddy that could have helped him intensify.
1026. 786
Vortex do you have a link for an image of
the wave off Africa
Quoting PensacolaNewbie:
is Houma and/or Morgan City under either a mandatory or a voluntary evacuation? My husband's doing treework over there, and neither of us are familiar with the area.


They are not under evacuation at this time.
It should be pretty easy to hit a wide cone that is constantly being moved as needed.
Quoting PensacolaNewbie:
is Houma and/or Morgan City under either a mandatory or a voluntary evacuation? My husband's doing treework over there, and neither of us are familiar with the area.


EXTREME lower terrebonne parish (houma) is under voluntary evacuation.. Link use this website for more info
1031. jb2five
Quoting lsurules:


I agree with you here OUShawn, Gustav was the same way. Nobody saw any reason for it not to blow up once it hit the gulf, but this never occured even though it was still a dangerous storm when it made landfall. I too don't think it will get dramatically stronger (maybe 110 mph) if at all.
you guys should lighten up, i was AGREEING with you, OU! the models have been trending eastward for 54 hours now...
Big cone hes looking like a well oiled machine right now.
1033. Patrap
Short Floater 4 - Rainbow Color Infrared LoopLink
Quoting OUSHAWN:
I just don't think I should having to spend all this time trying to defend myself. True, I'm not an expert and never claimed to be. I also have said there are many on here more educated than myself on weather and tropical systems. However, I feel I have also proven enough of myself on here not to be totally ridiculed and lashed out at just because I felt a storm will be weaker and hit in a different spot. I truely feel this is the best site around with extremely knowledgeable people who give excellent insight on these storms. Let's not turn it into a bashing site like a freaking teenage chatroom would be like.


Agreed, there are ways to respectfully disagree with someone. I also don't like when people try to dictate what can and cannot be posted on the blog. Last I checked Dr. Masters 'owns' this blog, if he wants to set some new rules then I'll abide. Lets keep this a free exchange of ideas and allow each user to filter out what is relevant or irrelevant.
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
This storm will kill a ton of people who are too ignorant (or stupid) to evacuate.


exactly.. in a few months we will be seeing videos of folks saying they made the worse decision of their life.. to bad some have to experiance it before it is real to them.
Quoting PensacolaNewbie:
is Houma and/or Morgan City under either a mandatory or a voluntary evacuation? My husband's doing treework over there, and neither of us are familiar with the area.


I'm in Houma...we were finishing up unpacking our classrooms and preping for school on Monday, when we were told to repack and get everything back up off the floors and equipement protected for fears of the storm surge.

I know lower Lafourche is under mandatory evacuation, lower Terrebonne is under voluntary evacuation, but I'm not sure about St. Mary parish...Morgan City. They are being warned the surge will overflow from the Atchafalaya river and warn flooding will happen to businesses on the river side.

That's all I've heard so far.
1038. OUSHAWN
Ok, I want to apologize to everyone. I'm really on edge. Both my dad and grandfather had heartattacks today and are in the hospital in ICU. It's my grandfather's third and my dad's first but he has also already had 2 openheart surgeries so I'm very concerned and worried. Now you add this dang storm on top of it and you get what you have seen in me this afternoon. I'm sorry and apologize to all. I think I need to take a break and gather myself.
1039. 996tt
Ha, the weather channel are such idiots. Jim Cantore standing in the sun just now talking how Ike is now going North of him. Duh. I could have told that 5 days ago. At least he can get a nice sun tan today.
Quoting PensacolaNewbie:
is Houma and/or Morgan City under either a mandatory or a voluntary evacuation? My husband's doing treework over there, and neither of us are familiar with the area.


from wwl.com
MANDATORY:
Grand Isle
LaFourche parish south of the Leon Theriot Flood Gates near Golden Meadow


VOLUNTARY:
Jefferson: Jean Lafitte, Crown Point , Barataria and areas outside of the levee protection system
St. Bernard outside hurricane protection
Southern Terrebonne Parish
Plaquemines, Myrtle Grove and points south and all FEMA trailers
Just go to the wunderground tropical main page and sroll threw the sat loops and look east atlantic west coast africa infared.
Quoting Orcasystems:

Time:
19:14:00Z
Coordinates:
25.9N 89.15W
Acft. Static Air Press:
696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
2,744 meters (~ 9,003 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
951.3 mb (~ 28.09 inHg)
D-value:

-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 272° at 4 knots (From the W at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp:
16.2°C (~ 61.2°F)
Dew Pt:
14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
-
SFMR Rain Rate:
-
(*) Denotes suspect data



there is a little bit of high content waters for Ike to take in right now, next main block is at 90.25W.. just a little and Ike is not weakening any more.. lets see what happens when Ike gets to around 90.25W with another big gulp for about an hour or so?
Quoting Giga2001:
Orca - you still think houston to pleasure island landfall?


For the eye.. yes.
Sorry it took so long, I had to get google to show me where Houston is (tells me all the areas around it.. just didn't say Houston)
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
This storm will kill a ton of people who are too ignorant (or stupid) to evacuate.


Hey House, haven't seen you in a couple of days! How's it going? What's Ike doing to the waves by you?
Quoting StormW:
1018. keyjo50 3:35 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
StormW -- Snory Cantore talking about FETCH right now.

He must have read my post! LOL!


Where is Jim at anyhow>??? He has to be getting ready to occupy some area really quick here...
Quoting PensacolaNewbie:
is Houma and/or Morgan City under either a mandatory or a voluntary evacuation? My husband's doing treework over there, and neither of us are familiar with the area.


Morgan City's low lying areas are under voluntary evacuation as of 10:00 a.m. this morning.
Quoting Drakoen:
Ike still unchanged. Clear signs that the outflow to the west is being restricted. A lot of dry air to the west of Ike. Ike is moving to the north of the eddy that could have helped him intensify.


Not looking healthy and not the signs for any rapid intensification. Surely we could see brief surges/pulses due to future EWRC, but that dry air is inhibiting everything.
Quoting lsurules:


I agree with you here OUShawn, Gustav was the same way. Nobody saw any reason for it not to blow up once it hit the gulf, but this never occured even though it was still a dangerous storm when it made landfall. I too don't think it will get dramatically stronger (maybe 110 mph) if at all.


Hold on. We thought that Gustav would strengthen without taking into account the dry air intake and the disfunctional center of circulation as the landfall with western Cuba allowed these two factors of wind shear from the south and southeast and dry air affect him greater then if he stayed over water.

However we are saying this because Ike is a much better organized storm then Gustav when they reached the Gulf, with the exception of Ike's two eyewalls which has been a problem since yesterday with a little dry air entrainment yesterday. However since around 12pm today Ike's appearance has had a remarkable increase in organization regardless of his pressure rising.
Quoting StormW:
1018. keyjo50 3:35 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
StormW -- Snory Cantore talking about FETCH right now.

He must have read my post! LOL!


he had crib notes in his hand Senior Chief.. you could be right...
1050. Kjsasey
Quoting TRed:


im in youngsville, la also watching as well, i dont think we will see that much where we are in the way of surge (15 miles from hwy 14) but im sure we will see some nice wind and rain.


I have family in youngsville!
1051. myway
Quoting OUSHAWN:
Ok, I want to apologize to everyone. I'm really on edge. Both my dad and grandfather had heartattacks today and are in the hospital in ICU. It's my grandfather's third and my dad's first but he has also already had 2 openheart surgeries so I'm very concerned and worried. Now you add this dang storm on top of it and you get what you have seen in me this afternoon. I'm sorry and apologize to all. I think I need to take a break and gather myself.


You should be @ the hospital, not on a blog. ope all works out.
1023. Sfloridacat5 2:36 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Wow, Ike has really started moving to the NW (definately running north of the forecast points).


was wondering if anyone had seen this....La you might get a sneaker of a storm.....

The two buoys close to 91L have pressure dropping lets see if it continues. I also notice a ball of convention starting to fire up around center small but might be a start.
Sheesh,
I just came from outside. Winds gusting about 60 mph and blowing steady around 35 mph. It's kicking here. Light rain, in waves. Nice day to be off of work. I wish they would tell us to go home!!!
Quoting NCX:
GOM WV Loop 7 hr run. Ping Pong ball eye gets squashed about midway
Link


Can't seem to get Google Earth going.. so is smaller eye a think of the past now and is outer area surrounding now forming an eye? How large is it?
Some piers in Orange Beach, ALABAMA were topped with water early this morning. A friend's house at Pensacola Beach, FL already has water IN it...Noon TV reported the pier at Pensacola Beach had water at the top ....it's a huge pier on stilts.

Prayers headed everywhere west for sure!
Quoting Patrap:
This is a BAD situation.

Storm Slowing.. Direction Problematic.

Its a BAd thing.

BE ready for ACTION when told to take it.


Say it ain't so Pat!
I have a question I know that this is a weather site and that most of yall are interested in the "workings" of this storm. But as a Katrina induced post tramatic stressed out mother of two small boys how worried should I be that I am going to be stuck in my home on Lake Pontchartrain with 8 feet of water and no roof hanging to to limbs of the 100 year old oak in my front yard?
Quoting OUSHAWN:
Ok, I want to apologize to everyone. I'm really on edge. Both my dad and grandfather had heartattacks today and are in the hospital in ICU. It's my grandfather's third and my dad's first but he has also already had 2 openheart surgeries so I'm very concerned and worried. Now you add this dang storm on top of it and you get what you have seen in me this afternoon. I'm sorry and apologize to all. I think I need to take a break and gather myself.


Wow I'm really sorry to hear that. Don't be apologizing as things here are extremely trivial compared to real life/family issues. Go be with them. God speed and hope everything turns out well.

- Rob
Quoting Markx999:
Quoting BougeFalaya:
I just wish someone would pull Nash Roberts outta the store room, dust 'im off, and give 'im a fistful of fresh Magic Markers . . .


That dude was awesome!

I absolutely agree!! No one was better than Nash with his Magic Markers and his bunions. I always felt better when Nash came on and said "I think it will make a slight turn to the east (or west) before landfall and miss New Orleans." He always seemed to be right.
1063. Drakoen
Quoting AtmosphericWrath:


Not looking healthy and not the signs for any rapid intensification. Surely we could see brief surges/pulses due to future EWRC, but that dry air is inhibiting everything.


Gradual intensification possible. Such a large system has a hard time pulling everything and coalescing.
1064. jb2five
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It should be pretty easy to hit a wide cone that is constantly being moved as needed.
Amen! Ike was originally plotted as an atlantic side of florida track by th models. That is why (IMHO) watching trends of all the models seems to help with planning more than just watching a 1000 mile wide 5-day cone...
1017 "A voluntary evacuation has been called for St. Mary Parish residents and business owners south of the Intra-coastal Waterway and for people living south of the railroad tracks in Franklin. These are the areas that flooded during Hurricane Rita." from the Morgan City Website www.cityofmc.com
Quoting OUSHAWN:
Ok, I want to apologize to everyone. I'm really on edge. Both my dad and grandfather had heartattacks today and are in the hospital in ICU. It's my grandfather's third and my dad's first but he has also already had 2 openheart surgeries so I'm very concerned and worried. Now you add this dang storm on top of it and you get what you have seen in me this afternoon. I'm sorry and apologize to all. I think I need to take a break and gather myself.

Are they geographically close to you? Dang storm is right, hope for the best for you and yours.
Quoting OUSHAWN:
996...

I'm 77058. You are the same zip as my ex...lol.




mine used to be 77006 downtown on bagby. glad i moved, it's gonna be tough times if it hits just south of ya. good luck
Ike is getting his environment moister to his west. If you look at visible satellite imagery he is gaining a better convective band on the western side. dry air is not as much of a problem as it was yesterday.
Just got a 15 second wind gust of 51 mph in Daphne, Al, the eastern shore, 46 w. of Pensacola and 10 miles north of the Bay. Sustained winds of 15-23, sometimes up to 35, but that bigger gust was a urprise.
Quoting myway:


You should be @ the hospital, not on a blog. ope all works out.


Bad news indeed.. hang in there.. you already have a lot to deal with. Make sure your dad and grand dad and family are safe.

out
1071. Vero1
Quoting StormW:
1018. keyjo50 3:35 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
StormW -- Snory Cantore talking about FETCH right now.

He must have read my post! LOL!
What else did he take from your office when he sleeping on the cot?
Ty cybergrump If it is heading towards Fla than it would be in our general area in 120 hrs or Tuesday around 2pm could be later. It looks like 91 is trying to get rid of the exess stuff to its NE and restart in its center core. Btw whats the pressure atm?
highway 90 Mississippi:

Various areas of Hwy 90 through Harrison County
EMERGENCY ALERT
County: Harrison
Lanes Affected: All Directions All Lanes
Traffic Impact: High
Begin: 9/11/2008 8:00 AM
End: 9/12/2008 4:00 PM
Last Updated: 9/11/2008 7:17 AM
Justification: Weather - Flood Warning
Additional: Certain areas are closed. Please use alternate route in these areas.
not sure about strength or even landfall location but I do know that the COC is way north of the TFP
A Huge Stomr like that must have the most perfect conditions Gilbert, Wilma, Katrina, just to name a few had the perfect conditions to RI.
1076. IKE
URNT12 KNHC 111942
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 11/19:14:00Z
B. 25 deg 54 min N
089 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2703 m
D. 82 kt
E. 054 deg 101 nm
F. 146 deg 101 kt
G. 057 deg 061 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 8 C/ 3046 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2709A IKE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 101 KT NE QUAD 18:54:30 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF FL CNTR
Quoting OUSHAWN:
Ok, I want to apologize to everyone. I'm really on edge. Both my dad and grandfather had heartattacks today and are in the hospital in ICU. It's my grandfather's third and my dad's first but he has also already had 2 openheart surgeries so I'm very concerned and worried. Now you add this dang storm on top of it and you get what you have seen in me this afternoon. I'm sorry and apologize to all. I think I need to take a break and gather myself.


Shawn...mail
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 19:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 19:14:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°54'N 89°09'W (25.9N 89.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 287 miles (462 km) to the S (169°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,703m (8,868ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 101 nautical miles (116 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 101kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 116.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.11 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:54:30Z
Distance of Surface Center From Flight Center: Surface center is within 5 nautical miles of flight center.


Quoting Drakoen:


Gradual intensification possible. Such a large system has a hard time pulling everything and coalescing.


Great point... In comparison to when Ike was just east of the Antilles he was then a compact, smaller, buzz saw. He was very intense and due to his smaller size there was less area around him to disturb him.
Now he is a monster, but that isn't a good thing for him necessarily as his entire entity or circulation can be affected easier and by more variables. He is fighting an uphill battle.
Just looking at IR Ike is now half the size of the Gulf of Mexico
Man oh man... look at the size of that TS windfield (orange or higher):



That's just ridiculous.
Stormw, are these Vortex readings because of a EWRC
1083. Vero1
Coast Guard just briefed on: http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes

They will have a floatilla of 21 Cutters following IKE ashore.
1084. 996tt
Quoting Nolehead:
1023. Sfloridacat5 2:36 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Wow, Ike has really started moving to the NW (definately running north of the forecast points).


was wondering if anyone had seen this....La you might get a sneaker of a storm.....



Are you making an Amazon trip tonight after work. Swell is too much for me today. Very hard driving Eastern wind and chop. A lot of water moving out there.
1085. djti
Quoting AtmosphericWrath:


Not looking healthy and not the signs for any rapid intensification. Surely we could see brief surges/pulses due to future EWRC, but that dry air is inhibiting everything.


dry air and conditions for some reason not leading to intense convection to fuel the engine.
1086. LLHi
OUShawn
take care of yourself. Sorry to hear about your family.
1087. Vero1
Chernoff is briefing now : http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes
1089. WxLogic
Quoting cybergrump:
The two buoys close to 91L have pressure dropping lets see if it continues. I also notice a ball of convention starting to fire up around center small but might be a start.


Yeah... in the SW quadrant... if it persists tonight... then definitely we'll be looking at something by tomorrow evening.
1090. NEwxguy
Quoting OUSHAWN:
Ok, I want to apologize to everyone. I'm really on edge. Both my dad and grandfather had heartattacks today and are in the hospital in ICU. It's my grandfather's third and my dad's first but he has also already had 2 openheart surgeries so I'm very concerned and worried. Now you add this dang storm on top of it and you get what you have seen in me this afternoon. I'm sorry and apologize to all. I think I need to take a break and gather myself.


Having just gone through my dad who had a serious stroke,I certainly understand the edginess,and hope everything works out for your dad and grandfather.Step away for awhile.
1038 OUSHAWN-
Prayers to you and your family.
MAN He is about to explode!! IMO
Quoting jb2five:
you guys should lighten up, i was AGREEING with you, OU! the models have been trending eastward for 54 hours now...


i thought it was generally agreed that gustav did not explode when it hit the gulf because:

A. shear was high
B. cuba took more of a toll than expected
C. there is a large area of cool water within a couple hundred miles of the coast of Louisiana

were these not the three factors that prevented Gustav from re-intensifying into a major? i do not necessarily think Ike will rapidly intensify, but it does appear to have better outflow and cooling cloud tops around the center. from what i've been reading around here, could this be due to the inner eyewall collapsing? this storm did at one time have two eyewalls, no? i got the impression that the second, smaller eyewall has collapsed and the storm is expected to respond by strengthening?

am i wrong? does it therefore have the potential to reach forecast strength in the next 24 HRS? that is to say, moderate CAT 3?
bay st. louis mississippi already has a 6' storm surge pushed in, some roads are 1 foot under water.
1095. Xion
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 19:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 19:14:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°54'N 89°09'W (25.9N 89.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 287 miles (462 km) to the S (169°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,703m (8,868ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 101 nautical miles (116 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 101kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 116.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.11 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:54:30Z
Distance of Surface Center From Flight Center: Surface center is within 5 nautical miles of flight center.




95 mph surface winds?
Nothing much to talk about Ike I usualy don't care about where it is going as long as it is not out of the forcast track. All areas from Texas and maybe Missippi and and Bama even. MI and Bama should not worry about a direct hit rather ts winds or Gusts if it goes to the right of the track.
Until it re-seals off that eye, rapid intensification's not going to happen. Of course, it's already a monster, so...

Remember how tiny Ike was to begin with? I always thought he looked like a cannonball plowing through the atlantic. Well, that cannonball exploded :P
Quoting neworleansmama:
I have a question I know that this is a weather site and that most of yall are interested in the "workings" of this storm. But as a Katrina induced post tramatic stressed out mother of two small boys how worried should I be that I am going to be stuck in my home on Lake Pontchartrain with 8 feet of water and no roof hanging to to limbs of the 100 year old oak in my front yard?


I'm with you on this one!
Evacuation list from the Lafayette, LA newspaper:

Link
1100. jb2five
StormW - where is the rain? theres literally none to speak of in the GOM...
Is it just me or Liann a complete downer? What a buzzkill!!! I reported the last rant. I also didn't realize that Liann had been officially appointed as the blog police. It's good to know these things. Liann, all I have to say is: WOW! (and not in a good way)

HJ
Quoting Vortex95:
Ty cybergrump If it is heading towards Fla than it would be in our general area in 120 hrs or Tuesday around 2pm could be later. It looks like 91 is trying to get rid of the exess stuff to its NE and restart in its center core. Btw whats the pressure atm?
Link
and
Link
Quoting djti:


dry air and conditions for some reason not leading to intense convection to fuel the engine.


Indeed
Quoting indianrivguy:


exactly.. in a few months we will be seeing videos of folks saying they made the worse decision of their life.. to bad some have to experiance it before it is real to them.

To parpahrase Dr. M from last night...

"Experience leads to good decisions and comes from bad decisions"
Man take care of your family. Don't let any of us add to your concearns. For your sake especially I hope this strom does trend down and give only minor damage to your area. Best of luck with everything.



Quoting OUSHAWN:
Ok, I want to apologize to everyone. I'm really on edge. Both my dad and grandfather had heartattacks today and are in the hospital in ICU. It's my grandfather's third and my dad's first but he has also already had 2 openheart surgeries so I'm very concerned and worried. Now you add this dang storm on top of it and you get what you have seen in me this afternoon. I'm sorry and apologize to all. I think I need to take a break and gather myself.
1107. Rysh
In my opinion Ike is not going to make landfall in Texas and if it does it will be at the border of Louisiana.

Thoughts?
If I am understanding correctly, several of you think conditions are not in place for Ike to intensify much more, if at all. He is going to be so bad that would be great - winds and surge bad.........surge alone is going to be horrible.
Per the NHC:

At 0100 CDT, Ike was located 25.0N 87.2W
At 1300 CDT, Ike was located 25.8N 88.8W

Over this 12 hour period, Ike has moved:

99.23 nautical miles
114.19 statute miles
183.77 km

The track has been 298.83°

The speed has been:

8.3 kts
9.5 mph
15.3 km/h

For reference:

West-northwest WNW 292.50°
Northwest by west NWbW 303.75°
Northwest NW 315.00°
Quoting dean2007:
Ike is getting his environment moister to his west. If you look at visible satellite imagery he is gaining a better convective band on the western side. dry air is not as much of a problem as it was yesterday.


He is trying to... I can see what you're referring to. Make no mistake about it if Ike were to begin healthy outflow to the west convection would fire and be more persistent to his western COC. We then could see an absolutely monster.... That is still a possibility. Agreed?
1007. nawlinsnikki 7:33 PM GMT on September 11, 2008
Anyone remember Lili in 02? I watched every forcaster on every channel say verbatim "there is no possible way for this storm to turn north and head this way" for more than 24 hours. Then she hit the 90 degree mark and headed north. Came in at Morgan City with no evacs called.


I remember Lili and I recall knowing she was coming at least 24 hours in advance, maybe more???
1112. Seastep
Quoting cybergrump:
The two buoys close to 91L have pressure dropping lets see if it continues. I also notice a ball of convention starting to fire up around center small but might be a start.


How do I get to the bouy data? TIA
1113. weld
This is going to be a LA storm.
Quoting thegoldenstrand:


Can't seem to get Google Earth going.. so is smaller eye a
think of the past now and is outer area surrounding now forming an eye?
How large is it?


The HHs didn't report concentric eyes; they reported a tiny (8nm) circular mile eye that's open in the west, and is within 5 miles of the surface center but is not completely vertically stacked.

In short, Ike's core has some work to do before he has the potential for rapid intensification.
I have to concur with one of the earlier posters here that everyone, regardless of where you may be, should fill up or top off your gas tank ASAP. As he/she noted here, it's a simple case of Economics 101 - Supply and Demand.

While I believe that the oil rigs in the GOM can sustain a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane, a Cat 3 would undoubtably cause significant damage to many. Meanwhile, with many of the refineries along the TX/S LA coast shutting down in anticipation of Ike for who knows how long (depending on how much flooding/damage is discovered), and OPEC's announcement this week that they would be cutting production, it's elementary.

We'll likely return to $4.00/gal for Regular Unleaded within a month as the futures traders go crazy and the oil companies seek more of a quick profit. Gotta have capital to fix all those damaged rigs and refineries, but they've also gotts insure the executives don't miss out on their golden parachute options.
1116. IKE
Dr. Lyons was pointing out the drier air to IKE's west and hoping that that may continue to weaken him.
1117. Seastep
91L now up on NHC
Quoting OUSHAWN:
I just don't think I should having to spend all this time trying to defend myself. True, I'm not an expert and never claimed to be. I also have said there are many on here more educated than myself on weather and tropical systems. However, I feel I have also proven enough of myself on here not to be totally ridiculed and lashed out at just because I felt a storm will be weaker and hit in a different spot. I truely feel this is the best site around with extremely knowledgeable people who give excellent insight on these storms. Let's not turn it into a bashing site like a freaking teenage chatroom would be like.


OUS, I didn't mean my first post to sound as harsh as it did and I posted it before I was done. (and of course, modify's not working.) My intention in starting that post was mainly to imply that given the majority of forecasters calling for the one thing, yet still with considerable uncertainty, are you really that confident in your forecast to bet your life on it? With the uncertainty that this years tropics have boiled up, I don't think anyone can be safe and feel that a few predictions is enough to base a possible life altering decision on. As stated, if things end up going downhill, the rescue personnel will not be there to help until after the storm effects have passed. Please tell me you at least have a contingency plan in place to evacuate if your wrong (and soon?)
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Thanks Storm - Pensacola Beach is having some major issues now.




i have friends off Garcon point rd, and they say there's no flooding at least where they are at. And the state of emergency was to have ended at 10am in Santa Rosa. Anybody know if the state of emergency is indeed over. They live right on Blackwater Bay.
Quoting IKE:
URNT12 KNHC 111942
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 11/19:14:00Z
B. 25 deg 54 min N
089 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2703 m
D. 82 kt
E. 054 deg 101 nm
F. 146 deg 101 kt
G. 057 deg 061 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 8 C/ 3046 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2709A IKE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 101 KT NE QUAD 18:54:30 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF FL CNTR


82kts on the SMFR? If I'm reading it right. Man, that's not a good sign - starting to build...
1084. 996tt 2:49 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting Nolehead:
1023. Sfloridacat5 2:36 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Wow, Ike has really started moving to the NW (definately running north of the forecast points).

was wondering if anyone had seen this....La you might get a sneaker of a storm.....




Are you making an Amazon trip tonight after work. Swell is too much for me today. Very hard driving Eastern wind and chop. A lot of water moving out there.


not tonight, gotta work tomorrow but i will be on the road Friday night for sure!!! this is so much bigger than what Katrina was...damn waves breaking over P'cola pier?? hell Katrina's surge didn't even come close to that...realize how big that is?? WOOHOO!!!
1122. kingy
OUSHAWN - hang in there man. Lot of people on this blog have a lot of respect for you.

As for Ike, the google earth recon stuff is interesting as it confirms that the inner eyewall has gone. As you may have also seen, the recon jet found a string of 30s sustained 100mph+ winds from over 100 miles NE of the eye, so Ike has really got chance for the winds to continue to catch up with the pressure (which has FALLEN to 951). My hopes that Ike was fading were false, I think we will see Ike strengthen overnight to a cat 3 and then we are in real trouble as the pressure is consistent with winds of up to 130mph. Given the size of this monster there was going to be a flood of epic proportions for texas, now with the winds picking up Ike can organise into a wind machine as well - even higher waves.
1123. pcola
Hi all, just came back from the beach in Perdido Key. The waves and wind are amazing. The waves just keep coming and there is some flooding along the low lands near the road. No surfers, but there was a boogie type board surfer with a hugh kite. The waves made him look really small and boy there were times when he was really up there. I can't imagine being in the thick of Ike - it's too scarey!
Quoting Seastep:


How do I get to the bouy data? TIA


Look here
Quoting conchygirl:
If I am understanding correctly, several of you think conditions are
not in place for Ike to intensify much more, if at all. He is going to
be so bad that would be great - winds and surge bad.........surge alone
is going to be horrible.


It all depends on how quickly he heals his core, if at all. He's not currently in shape for rapid intensification. Watch for a closed, circular, vertically stacked eye; if that happens, then yes, watch out. Until then, don't expect too much.

And yes, even in his current form, he'd be a disaster.
1126. WxLogic
In regards IKE... the 18Z steering currents are showing the Easter extend of the Trough approaching W Texas... and a little stronger High to the East... based on this I would expect to IKE to resume movement to to the NW or N but not to the WNW... this is just my opinion from what I'm able to deduce. There's still some ridging to the W of IKE too...

NOTE: Steering flows can change at any time or be oriented on a fashion that is not forecasted and therefore cause deviations... but for now and due to the proximity of the Trough... I just can't quite see a WNW or W any time soon.
Quoting KarenRei:


It all depends on how quickly he heals his core, if at all. He's not currently in shape for rapid intensification. Watch for a closed, circular, vertically stacked eye; if that happens, then yes, watch out. Until then, don't expect too much.

And yes, even in his current form, he'd be a disaster.


When you see the stadium effect in the eye, the next vortex message almost always has a higher intensity than the previous one.
IKE getting better organized atleast on the Sat representation! Still has about 36 hours over water, def strong CAT-3 in my opinion!!!
Quoting LongGlassTube:
Man take care of your family. Don't let any of us add to your concearns. For your sake especially I hope this strom does trend down and give only minor damage to your area. Best of luck with everything.





I am so sorry to hear about your Dad and your Grandpa, hopefully they will both be okay. I usually read your post and find you very informative. Take care if this does come your way, I myself live in Corpus Christi, and I am still worried that it won't make the turn it is predicted to make.
1131. TWCrox
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,420783,00.html

This article from Fox interviews Dr. Masters.
1132. Rysh
Indeed, looking at the visabile loop sped up you can clearly see Ike taking a more northerly turn this afternoon. LA should be getting prepared.
Eye on WV?
Quoting WxLogic:
In regards IKE... the 18Z steering currents are showing the Easter extend of the Trough approaching W Texas... and a little stronger High to the East... based on this I would expect to IKE to resume movement to to the NW or N but not to the WNW.....
Latest corridnates confirm what you say. The 3 hours between the 10 AM and 1 PM CST checkpoints are on a dead NW heading of 315. Ike covered 32 miles in those 3 hours- his forward speed increasing slightly to 10-11 MPH. I think there is a good chance Ike may hit Galveston dead on- if not veer slightly north.
1135. LAgal78
Quoting WxLogic:
In regards IKE... the 18Z steering currents are showing the Easter extend of the Trough approaching W Texas... and a little stronger High to the East... based on this I would expect to IKE to resume movement to to the NW or N but not to the WNW... this is just my opinion from what I'm able to deduce. There's still some ridging to the W of IKE too...

NOTE: Steering flows can change at any time or be oriented on a fashion that is not forecasted and therefore cause deviations... but for now and due to the proximity of the Trough... I just can't quite see a WNW or W any time soon.


So you're anticipating a LA landfall? :(
1136. Patrap
Bad..

Bad..

Bad..

Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link

1137. keyjo50
Am I seeing a little wobble to the North or am I seeing things?
Ike reminds me a lot of Gilbert in terms of the size of the wind field. Extent of tropical storm force winds about identical, hurricane force wind field not quite as broad on Ike yet.
Ike appears to be missing the 12/00 mark on the visible floater.
Quoting Nolehead:
1023. Sfloridacat5 2:36 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Wow, Ike has really started moving to the NW (definately running north of the forecast points).


was wondering if anyone had seen this....La you might get a sneaker of a storm.....



You know I have been seen this since yesterday, and the official forecast have not changed. we are alredy getting winds and surge here in Mississippi as a matter of fact I got soaked at luch time because a dammed band snicked on me with about 40 mph gust. I do not understand why do I keep on seeing this hurricane moving NW and then the NHC says WNW!! I mean is it an effect or perhaps the fact that there is no defined eye. Look, forget the winds and category as Dr, Masters explained Surge will be greater than Katrina's and I experience Katrina,s surge believe me I did not loose a shingle due to the wind, but the surge is what did my home. Texas I wish you evacuated earlier, but darn youstill got time GET OUT OF THERE!! and I'll keep looking at it hopin it is just not starting a turn to the east earlier than anticipated. By the way any new on the high how is it holding?
Quoting IKE:
Dr. Lyons was pointing out the drier air to IKE's west and hoping that that may continue to weaken him.


Well its not weakening him, its the double wind maxima that is causing him fits along with that dry air. If it can get a single wind maximum, it should be able to strengthen.
1142. FLdewey
In reality nobody, including the fine folks at the NHC is very good at forecasting intensity with a great amount of accuracy. Could IKE ramp up to a Cat 4 with little notice? Sure. Could IKE just kind of maintain strength and amble ashore as is? Sure.
New update, showing Ike with Forecast peak winds, ship and bouy information also.
Does anyone know how far this buoy is from the center of circulation? I'm at work and can't get all my tools running...

This looks pretty ominous though...

42001 Wind & Pressure

Wave heights are running 30 feet as well... gulp...
Quoting KarenRei:


The HHs didn't report concentric eyes; they reported a tiny (8nm) circular mile eye that's open in the west, and is within 5 miles of the surface center but is not completely vertically stacked.

In short, Ike's core has some work to do before he has the potential for rapid intensification.


thanks.. i had read that there was circulation surrounding that tiny eye that was fighting with it and that initially it was 100 miles across, then this morning i read it was contracting.. i was thinking this could be new eye.. hence the question.. from all I see that older smaller eye is about to fall apart.. but just my take..

1146. Drakoen
Ike needs to build his western portion of the eyewall before the eye can begin to clear out.
1147. NEwxguy
It sure like LA is getting more in the danger zone.
Quoting Patrap:
Bad..

Bad..

Bad..

Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link



Getting that "Buzz-saw" look.
1149. Patrap
Sent my Kids out this afternnon from School Here.
To Florida for the weekend.

If outside the Levee Protection System in Se. LA.
Id advise evacuating to Points N of the PArish tour in Lafourche,Terrebone,St Bernard,Lower Jefferson and Plaquemines.
1150. gotts1
Quoting Seastep:


How do I get to the bouy data? TIA


Link
Frank Bilinglsey (Chief Met at Channel 2 in Houston) just stated that based on all the info he has reviewed, he expects a shift in the NHC track to Galveston County (west side). That would be a jog to the North of the current line.
1152. IKE
Quoting iahishome:
Does anyone know how far this buoy is from the center of circulation? I'm at work and can't get all my tools running...

This looks pretty ominous though...

42001 Wind & Pressure

Wave heights are running 30 feet as well... gulp...


It's very near the COC right now.
Quoting PensacolaNewbie:




i have friends off Garcon point rd, and they say there's no flooding at least where they are at. And the state of emergency was to have ended at 10am in Santa Rosa. Anybody know if the state of emergency is indeed over. They live right on Blackwater Bay.


Hello Newbie;

Pensacola here as well, most of the earlier flooding was due to storm surge and high tide. I believe that high tide was reached earlier today and now we should see some recession in the water levels. That doesn't keep us out of the woods completely, but at least for now. I went over 3 mile bridge earlier today and was amazed at how high the water level had reached. 17th ave was closed earlier and so was lower 9th at Bayfront.
Quoting NEwxguy:
It sure like LA is getting more in the danger zone.


I really don't want to hear that, but I see the same thing also. Stings more when someone actually says it. We are just getting back to normal in my area after Gustav.
Small blow up at the center of 91L. Night time should be interesting.
Quoting Patrap:
Bad..

Bad..

Bad..

Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link



On that link...what does 19:15 UTC mean?
1157. WxLogic
Quoting LAgal78:


So you're anticipating a LA landfall? :(


LOL!!! I certainly hope not... but LA seems to be in for a wild ride... "300 Quote... modified" :)

NOTE: I'm not wishcasting or anything like that... I'm just presenting the observations I'm seeing.
Quoting MSFLRadioStar:
I have to concur with one of the earlier posters here that everyone, regardless of where you may be, should fill up or top off your gas tank ASAP. As he/she noted here, it's a simple case of Economics 101 - Supply and Demand.

While I believe that the oil rigs in the GOM can sustain a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane, a Cat 3 would undoubtably cause significant damage to many. Meanwhile, with many of the refineries along the TX/S LA coast shutting down in anticipation of Ike for who knows how long (depending on how much flooding/damage is discovered), and OPEC's announcement this week that they would be cutting production, it's elementary.

We'll likely return to $4.00/gal for Regular Unleaded within a month as the futures traders go crazy and the oil companies seek more of a quick profit. Gotta have capital to fix all those damaged rigs and refineries, but they've also gotts insure the executives don't miss out on their golden parachute options.


Big question is what sort of wave heights can the rigs and platforms take? This doesn't fall neatly into those categories and it has more to do with the area covered by TS force and hurricane force winds. If Ike were to have surface winds of a cat 1 by this time tomorrow, I fear the damage to the petroleum infrastructure would still be substantial.

13 METERS forecasted! (42 feet?)



Quoting Patrap:
Bad..

Bad..

Bad..

Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link



What are you seeing, Pat?
1160. djti
Quoting conchygirl:
If I am understanding correctly, several of you think conditions are not in place for Ike to intensify much more, if at all. He is going to be so bad that would be great - winds and surge bad.........surge alone is going to be horrible.


dont forget...the doomsday surges are calculated using a strong cat 3 as the basis.

no question surge of this cat 1 is going to be worse than most any other cat 1 and very widespread. but it wont be as bad as the predictions UNLESS ike intesifies significantly.
I am not an alarmist or a so called wishcaster, but should i be concerned about the current track being north of the forecast track? this storm seems to have a mind of its own. Drak, if you're out there, what say you for south central Louisiana residents?
This will soon be emerging off the African coast.

1164. Drakoen
Quoting extreme236:


Well its not weakening him, its the double wind maxima that is causing him fits along with that dry air. If it can get a single wind maximum, it should be able to strengthen.


The dry air is preventing the structure from organizing. If you look at the visible loop you can see thin lines in the western GOM and some mid level cloudiness south of Louisiana represent the inflow that Ike is trying to gain but it has nothing to work with with the subsidence in the mid and upper levels.
1165. NEwxguy
Quoting lsurules:


I really don't want to hear that, but I see the same thing also. Stings more when someone actually says it. We are just getting back to normal in my area after Gustav.


I hear you,not that I want it to hit anywhere,but sure as heck don't want it going where Gustav just went.
1166. Rysh
On Ike's current track, Yes it will make landfall in Louisiana crossing the border with Texas after landfall.
Quoting NEwxguy:
It sure like LA is getting more in the danger zone.


I have to say that Ike has been one squirrely storm. I live in Corpus and I still am not convinced anyone on the TX Gulf Coast or LA Gulf Coast is out of the woods. I don't think we'll really know until maybe tomorrow afternoon. Give Ike some valium and let's get him to calm down!
Here's your latest Early Model Runs.. (18z)



They're going north again.. deja vu every six hours.
1170. BlxMS
Two quick comments...Gas Prices- Bro in law works for a major Jax, MS gas distributor and they were notified at 1PM today of an immediwte wholesale jump of $.85 a gallon...should show up at the pumps by tomorrow moring...adn could easily go higher very quickly.

Lots of talk about Ike strengthening / not strengthening. Based on real experience from Katrina, if you're very near the TX coast, whether its Cat 1, 2, 3 or whatever, you still have a VERY REAL problem. Dr. M. stated that Ike is already moving 50% more water than Katrina. I watched her surge come in with my own eyes and I can tell you that whether the winds were 70 mph or 135 mph...it really didn't matter. You are going to get a devastating surge regardless. Water kills often...Winds much less so. If you are going to "ride this out" near the coast, SERIOUSLY, write your name, SSN, and next of kin on your arms with a perm magic marker. It truly helped the recovery folks do their jobs here in MS. Get out if you're in danger, and if not, good luck. If you haven't seen a major storm surge for yourself...words cannot describe the terror. BE SMART.
1172. houstex
Zoom in to Ike on the hi-res NASA image and you can see the effects of shear on the north and west sides. You can also get a hint that the LLC is not aligned with the ULC. The models have also shifted to the right - all good news for Houston IMHO which will most likely wind up on the dry side of the storm. Go Ike!

Got to think that if the track shift does materialize tonight, there will be some ticked off evacuees. Probably a whole lot better than the alternatives. Still, makes you wonder what the reaction will be next time around.

Link
Quoting Patrap:
Bad..

Bad..

Bad..

Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link



Thanks for the link. I had 4 others running, but the colors on this are prettier? sure, sure. Are you saying Ike appears he is about to explode? I don't want to assume and put words in your mouth.
1174. Patrap
Bookmark this Link if you want current NOAA imagery for IKE.

..Link

UTC is displayed to YOUR puter settings.

Bookmark it .. It will be a Busy spot the next 48 hrs.

A southwest Louisiana hit will be really bad for this area because we were already devastated by Hurricane Gustav.
I'm here in lower southeast LA. The winds are unreal. Power poles that were just put up last week have ben knocked down again. Having some internet trouble so can't get on all the usual sights for models ets. Any advice for me here in LA as far as Ike coming here.


can someone tell me about surge on the southern side of landfall?
Just an example of the water from Ike even here in Pensacola. I know you probably won't know these locations, but except for the beach, they are on a bay that has the barrier island protecting us with mouth to the gulf only about 1/4 mile wide.

IN PENSACOLA:

BOATRAMP CLOSINGS:
* The boat ramps at Sanders Beach and 17th Avenue have been closed

ROAD CLOSINGS:
* 17th Avenue at the CSX Trestle closed in both directions.
* Devilliers Street from Government to Main Street
* Ninth Avenue between Romana Street and Bayfront Parkway could become a problem at the soccer field if water continues to rise

IN PERDIDO KEY:

ROAD CLOSINGS:
* 1400 Block of River Road
* Gongora Drive
* Siguenza Drive

ON PENSACOLA BEACH:

ROAD CLOSINGS:
* 900 Block of Aero
* Corti Drive
* Largo Drive
* 220 Panferio Drive
* 1300 to 1312 Rio Vista
* Entrada 1 and Entrada 2
* Bahia Paz Complex
* Walkover 27
* 900 to 1100 Ariola Drive
* Fort Pickens Gate West
* Bridge to EPA Lab is nearly underwater

BEACH CONDITIONS:
* Extremely rough surf conditions exist at the beaches.
* Red flag conditions at both beaches prohibit swimming and surfing in the gulf.
* Tides are expected to be 3 to 5 feet above normal.
* The beaches could experience coastal flooding throughout the day.
iReports from Pensacola Beach, FL go to:

http://www.ireports.com/docs/DOC-83102
http://www.ireports.com/docs/DOC-83171

And Ike's not anywhere near here...WOW!!
Quoting IKE:


It's very near the COC right now.


agree, Ike should almost be right over it in another 3 hours at current speed at 89.67W it is about 35 miles w/w/nw of ike.. almost due west.
1181. Rysh
Ike is way north of the tropical forcast points.
1182. kmathre
Quoting jb2five:
StormW - where is the rain? theres literally none to speak of in the GOM...


I could be wrong but I thought the most of the radar that picks up the rain are regional around the GOM and therefore don't necessarily pick up in the middle of the GOM.
1183. WxLogic
I'll be back in a couple.
Ike's appearance continues to improve. I'm sorry, but Ike is getting ready. I say the eye could clear out around 11pm tonight and through the morning, but again I believe I said that last night and it didn't contract his outer eyewall and now that appears has happened if the 8nm wide eye is right reported by the hurricane hunters. However it does have a little while to go on the western side, however I expect this to occur around 11pm when the eye clears out. The outflow on the western side of Ike is improving quickly. Thoughts on what he will be like at 11pm?
1185. IKE
Quoting thegoldenstrand:


agree, Ike should almost be right over it in another 3 hours at current speed at 89.67W it is about 35 miles w/w/nw of ike.. almost due west.


It's not reporting the 2:50 pm CDST update...I wonder if it's knocked it out?
1186. Patrap
With the Rain ...there will be and are winds.

Scattered showers with embedded T-Storms swirling into Se. L., Coastal Miss. and ALa. this afternoon.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI 20 frame Loop Link
1187. LAgal78
Quoting WxLogic:


LOL!!! I certainly hope not... but LA seems to be in for a wild ride... "300 Quote... modified" :)

NOTE: I'm not wishcasting or anything like that... I'm just presenting the observations I'm seeing.


I tell you, my nerves are absolutely RAW watching this storm. I read what the general consensus here that a northward turn is entirely possible...and it's terrifying to think that no one here is doing anything to prepare for that possibility! How much longer do you think before we'll know for certain?
1188. NEwxguy
This has really been an amazing storm as far as forecasting strength and track
Quoting newenglandnative:
Latest corridnates confirm what you say. The 3 hours between the 10 AM and 1 PM CST checkpoints are on a dead NW heading of 315. Ike covered 32 miles in those 3 hours- his forward speed increasing slightly to 10-11 MPH. I think there is a good chance Ike may hit Galveston dead on- if not veer slightly north.


Per NHC:

10am CDT position 25.5N 88.4W
1pm CDT position 25.8N 88.8W

Actual movement has been:

28.15 nautical miles
32.39 statute miles
52.13 km

True course: 309.61°

Actual Speed: 9.3 mph / 10.8 kts / 17.4 km/h

For reference:

West-northwest WNW 292.50°
Northwest by west NWbW 303.75°
Northwest NW 315.00°
Anyone else notice that buoy 42001 failed to deliver its scheduled update last hour? Looks like NOAA may have to track that baby down.
Keep in mind when buoys report wave heights they report significant wave heights. That is roughly the average height of the one-third of highest waves in a given time period. The maximum wave height is higher than that and many offshore platforms are built to withstand maximum heights of only 50 feet.
1192. IKE
IKE looks headed for the Galveston, Houston area.
yes, we are still recovering. we've got a tarp on our roof and dehumidifiers still inside, all the while insulation from the attic is raining down on us. i'm assuming we'll at least get tropical storm force winds in the baton rouge area? i hope our tarp holds.
1194. Patrap
Buoy probably lost Line of sight to the TDRS grid,sat system.
Remember bouy 42001 is also in 30 foot waves. Winds might be incorrect. That thing is getting whooped. Might no longer exist.
Quoting Patrap:
Sent my Kids out this afternnon from School Here.
To Florida for the weekend.

If outside the Levee Protection System in Se. LA.
Id advise evacuating to Points N of the PArish tour in Lafourche,Terrebone,St Bernard,Lower Jefferson and Plaquemines.


Are you saying to evacuate north of the parishes? or to the North areas of those parishes
1197. Patrap
These winds will and are bringing water into the West from the East.

Bad,..bad..bad..
NEXRAD Radar New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI — Link
1198. keyjo50
Can someone with more experience tell me if they see a northerly wobble? It looks like it was hohumming to the WNW and then took a little wobble to the north in the last hour.
OUSHAWN, I have had two heart attacks resulting inone valve rebuilt and on replaced with St. Jude mechanical valve. It is truly amazing what modern medicne can accomplish!
I hope you dad and granddad are ok. But take care of yourself too!
Quoting dean2007:
Ike's appearance continues to improve. I'm sorry, but Ike is getting ready. I say the eye could clear out around 11pm tonight and through the morning, but again I believe I said that last night and it didn't contract his outer eyewall and now that appears has happened if the 8nm wide eye is right reported by the hurricane hunters. However it does have a little while to go on the western side, however I expect this to occur around 11pm when the eye clears out. The outflow on the western side of Ike is improving quickly. Thoughts on what he will be like at 11pm?
Man....have you been drinking coffee this afternoon?
You have to wait for the very last frame, but it looks like the dreaded pinhole eye.

Thank you Stormjunkie and kman for your explaining things to us.

Link
Quoting Rysh:
Ike is way north of the tropical forcast points.
Yep. Ike is driving the bus- steering patterns are out the window.
1203. 996tt
Quoting Nolehead:
1084. 996tt 2:49 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting Nolehead:
1023. Sfloridacat5 2:36 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Wow, Ike has really started moving to the NW (definately running north of the forecast points).

was wondering if anyone had seen this....La you might get a sneaker of a storm.....




Are you making an Amazon trip tonight after work. Swell is too much for me today. Very hard driving Eastern wind and chop. A lot of water moving out there.


not tonight, gotta work tomorrow but i will be on the road Friday night for sure!!! this is so much bigger than what Katrina was...damn waves breaking over P'cola pier?? hell Katrina's surge didn't even come close to that...realize how big that is?? WOOHOO!!!


Have a great one. I just got back from the pier. Waves are breaking way outside and I would say some sets were breaking 500 to 1,000 feet off the end of the pier.
Quoting GulfScotsman:



ooh isnt that neat a puff of clouds.. oooh neato.

ummm

look that way dofus

<--------

Actually doofus is spelled with two o's so maybe you should point that arrow at yourself.
Lake Pontchartrain

LATEST AND 24 Hr
LEVEL chnge


Orleans Ave Canal 1 - ICS Lake-side (85635)
as of 14:00

3.01
+ 1.13
M
Orleans Ave Canal 2 - ICS Canal-side (85636)
as of 14:00

2.98
+ 1.18

Orleans Ave Canal 4 - Chapelle St. (85638)
as of 14:00

3.03
+ 1.09

Orleans Ave Canal 3 - Robert E Lee (85637)
as of 14:00

2.94
+ 1.06

Orleans Ave Canal 5 - Lane St. (85639)
as of 14:00

2.91
+ 1.09

Orleans Ave Canal 6 - Harrison Ave (85640)
as of 14:00

2.87
+ 1.06

Orleans Ave Canal 7 - Polk St. (85641)
as of 14:00

2.93
+ 1.05

Orleans Ave Canal 8 - PS7 (85642)
as of 14:00

2.85
+ 1.00

London Ave Canal 1 - ICS Lake-side (85626)
as of 14:00

2.99
+ 1.14

London Ave Canal 2 - ICS Canal-side (85627)
as of 14:00

2.97
+ 1.13
0.16
London Ave Canal 3 - Simon Dr. (85628)
as of 14:00

2.90
+ 1.08

London Ave Canal 4 - Prentiss Ave. (85629)
as of 14:00

3.14
+ 1.08

London Ave Canal 5 - Filmore Ave. (85630)
as of 14:00

2.92
+ 1.08

1207. 996tt
Quoting MiniCane:


Hello Newbie;

Pensacola here as well, most of the earlier flooding was due to storm surge and high tide. I believe that high tide was reached earlier today and now we should see some recession in the water levels. That doesn't keep us out of the woods completely, but at least for now. I went over 3 mile bridge earlier today and was amazed at how high the water level had reached. 17th ave was closed earlier and so was lower 9th at Bayfront.


Yeah, we drove by 17h at about 11 and it was open. At 1 it was under water and tide is still rising.
Just got back. How are things looking? It is very windy here and rained hard earlier today but is very sunny now and still very windy.
It looks to have cold cloud tops wrappign around the COC now. Umm matter of time maybe?
1210. Patrap
Im saying one should be prepared to take ACTION when called to do so.

Kids were leaving Friday on Scheduled trip.
We decided a days start may be a good Idea. React to ones feelings.
Dont ever wait to be told.
Time is critical for Many in the warned and Watch areas.
Take action Now to Protect LIFE.
Quoting cajunstorm:
Remember bouy 42001 is also in 30 foot waves. Winds might be incorrect. That thing is getting whooped. Might no longer exist.


They're designed to take a licking and keep on ticking- but they come untethered all the time. It usually takes up to a year for NOAA to track down a loose buoy and re-tether it.
1212. jonelu
Quoting truecajun:
I am not an alarmist or a so called wishcaster, but should i be concerned about the current track being north of the forecast track? this storm seems to have a mind of its own. Drak, if you're out there, what say you for south central Louisiana residents?
Looks like you guys are gonna get effected with Trop Storm coniditions and a small storm surge.
Quoting AtmosphericWrath:


Indeed


Come on, don't quote djtit.
Quoting LafourcheLAgirl:
I'm here in lower southeast LA. The winds are unreal. Power poles that were just put up last week have ben knocked down again. Having some internet trouble so can't get on all the usual sights for models ets. Any advice for me here in LA as far as Ike coming here.


Get out.
1215. Patrap
Thanx JF,,.. numbers to watch for sure,

Thanx again for that Link.
1216. Rysh
Link

Speed up the animation and see for yourself, if Ike continues this track with no westerly push there is no way possible of a Freeport/Galveston eye crossing. If I live in SW Louisiana I would be getting prepared right now.

I am not trying to scare anybody but this is my observation.

I live in Houston Tx by the way.
With the current track, anything to be concerned about inland by San Antonio - Austin??
I just called my husband,I am in Irving,TX been here since the 30th, and he said high tide was around 10am this morning and at the shop there is about 3ft of water in there. Where about 300 to 400 yards from Chickasabogue Creek in Chickasaw,AL right outside of Mobile,AL
Sheri
Quoting WxLogic:
In regards IKE... the 18Z steering currents are showing the Easter extend of the Trough approaching W Texas... and a little stronger High to the East... based on this I would expect to IKE to resume movement to to the NW or N but not to the WNW... this is just my opinion from what I'm able to deduce. There's still some ridging to the W of IKE too...

NOTE: Steering flows can change at any time or be oriented on a fashion that is not forecasted and therefore cause deviations... but for now and due to the proximity of the Trough... I just can't quite see a WNW or W any time soon.


Hold on, hold on. Shouldn't a stronger high to its east make it stay on a westerly course. unles the edge of the high is over Mississippi or Florida do you have a liink to back this up because Ike is not moving much to the WNW and it looks more like a NW track to me if you can back this up with a good link that would be very helpful.
1220. SEFL
Quoting BlxMS:
Two quick comments...Gas Prices- Bro in law works for a major Jax, MS gas distributor and they were notified at 1PM today of an immediwte wholesale jump of $.85 a gallon...should show up at the pumps by tomorrow moring...adn could easily go higher very quickly.


Bull!!

" Oil prices tumbled Thursday as the dollar rallied and demand worries outweighed a powerful Hurricane Ike barreling through the rig-dotted Gulf of Mexico.


New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October, slid 1.71 dollars to close at 100.87 dollars a barrel.

The New York contract fell to 100.10 dollars in intraday trade, approaching the 100-dollar threshold it had last crossed on April 1."
1222. Drakoen
Quoting JupiterFL:

Actually doofus is spelled with two o's so maybe you should point that arrow at yourself.


lol
keeping winds the same for 5:00 update. Pressure was 954 but has to 952 or 950. Going to increase surge heights for LA tropical storm warning areas to 6-8 ft. That's all I got from the NHC conference call. Oh and next advisory will probably drop the hurrican watch for south Texas. Hope that is helpful.
-Alicia
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO)


Hey JFLORIDA, haven't seen you around in a while.

Yeah, the USACE plots are very difficult to link. I find the USGS ones are much easier (from http://waterdata.usgs.gov)

Here is a good example from the Mississippi Sound near Chef Pass (straits at Lake Pontchartrain)

Quoting SwirlOfDoom:
With the current track, anything to be concerned about inland by San Antonio - Austin??


well with how far out TS winds are you likely will still get TS winds but other then that there is the normal Flooding and tornado threat
Quoting SEFL:


Bull!!

" Oil prices tumbled Thursday as the dollar rallied and demand worries outweighed a powerful Hurricane Ike barreling through the rig-dotted Gulf of Mexico.


New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October, slid 1.71 dollars to close at 100.87 dollars a barrel.

The New York contract fell to 100.10 dollars in intraday trade, approaching the 100-dollar threshold it had last crossed on April 1."
se - Thanks for keeping it real.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Just an example of the water from Ike even here in Pensacola. I know you probably won't know these locations, but except for the beach, they are on a bay that has the barrier island protecting us with mouth to the gulf only about 1/4 mile wide.

IN PENSACOLA:

BOATRAMP CLOSINGS:
* The boat ramps at Sanders Beach and 17th Avenue have been closed

ROAD CLOSINGS:
* 17th Avenue at the CSX Trestle closed in both directions.
* Devilliers Street from Government to Main Street
* Ninth Avenue between Romana Street and Bayfront Parkway could become a problem at the soccer field if water continues to rise

IN PERDIDO KEY:

ROAD CLOSINGS:
* 1400 Block of River Road
* Gongora Drive
* Siguenza Drive

ON PENSACOLA BEACH:

ROAD CLOSINGS:
* 900 Block of Aero
* Corti Drive
* Largo Drive
* 220 Panferio Drive
* 1300 to 1312 Rio Vista
* Entrada 1 and Entrada 2
* Bahia Paz Complex
* Walkover 27
* 900 to 1100 Ariola Drive
* Fort Pickens Gate West
* Bridge to EPA Lab is nearly underwater

BEACH CONDITIONS:
* Extremely rough surf conditions exist at the beaches.
* Red flag conditions at both beaches prohibit swimming and surfing in the gulf.
* Tides are expected to be 3 to 5 feet above normal.
* The beaches could experience coastal flooding throughout the day.


And keep in mind that Pensacola is around 340 miles from Ike right now...we're just getting the outer band effect!
Link You can see the opening on the West side. Looks healthier right now, though. Outflow improving, too.
1230. myway
Quoting SEFL:


Bull!!

" Oil prices tumbled Thursday as the dollar rallied and demand worries outweighed a powerful Hurricane Ike barreling through the rig-dotted Gulf of Mexico.


New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October, slid 1.71 dollars to close at 100.87 dollars a barrel.

The New York contract fell to 100.10 dollars in intraday trade, approaching the 100-dollar threshold it had last crossed on April 1."


You need to look @ the wholesale gas price. Oil went down, wholesale gas (already refined) went up. You can have as much oil as you want, if your can not refine it, it is worthless.
Quoting Patrap:
Thanx JF,,.. numbers to watch for sure,

Thanx again for that Link.


I put it on your page.

Yea, Even with the storm far away, I dont think anyone expected this type of surge. I will be glad when its past.
1232. IKE
Center near....

26.1N
89.3W....
I live in P'cola - gotta go to Fed Courthouse in the a.m. Does anyone in my neck of the woods know about possible downtown flooding around Garden & Palafox? I live out by Perdido Key and don't get into town much. Just wondering...
My prayers are with everyone in IKE's path. I survived IVAN by the grace of God.
1225. Thanks! We could use the rain, but no wind and no twisters.
Drak, or anyone else who wants to chime in... questions about 91L. Looking at the charts it appears 91L's strongest vorticity is more at mid-levels. He also has to contend with the ULL to his northwest. Although the ULL does look like it is weakening. Shear also doesn't look very favorable and there is no low pressure associated with 91L. If I am reading all this right, realistically there doesn't seem to be any chance of development. What is going on with it that the NHC would declare it an invest? It looked better yesterday.
42001 finally updated and...



Pressure still falling, but, so are the winds??
1237. IKE
Buoy near COC....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 52.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 26.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 9.3 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.47 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.55 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.3 °F
Gas prices and oilprices will not go up unless there is some actually damage to the riggs.
But if Ike is able to damage oil rigs prices could rise to unseen levels again.
1239. LFMman
Buoy 42011 just reported in...

964.1 mb
Anyone know we have 91L?
Is that shear from IKE on the western side of the satelite picture of 91L?
These folks should be ashamed, not to mention sued for breech of contact!

The Houston Chronicle reported this afternoon:

Chambers County Judge Jimmy Sylvia said today he is searching for buses to relocate about 170 residents from the county's two nursing homes after bus companies reneged on contracts to do the job.

Sylvia, who issued a mandatory evacuation order for the county today, said he has put in a request for buses from state emergency officials but not had a reply yet.

He did not identify the bus companies.


In another story, the newspaper noted that the operator of another nursing home in Baytown was having the same problem getting bus companies to evacuate it's 55 or so special needs residents. When she advised local government officials, she was told that she was not working hard enough on it until she actually presented faxes of the companies' refusal.
1243. djti
Quoting muddertracker:
Link You can see the opening on the West side. Looks healthier right now, though. Outflow improving, too.


absolutely. looks better than it has all day and the west side has been closed off for now. will be interesting to see if it stabilizes that way. could be the beginning of strengthening if it can maintain the cdo and cut off the continual banding of dry air that has been present since it left cuba.

and for my detractors. ill call them like i see them. if i see strenghtening ill be the first to agree.
Jindal has called a mandatory evac for all coastal parishes of Louisiana.
LafourcheLAgirl,
I just went out for a smoke here on the backroad in Galliano, almost blew me away. I hate to think I will have to drive home at 5pm with my 4 children in my van!!! They are ready to make some hurricane video's though.
What would you all say the odds of this fella hitting near the beaumont area or closer to LA. I am in Lake Charles. We are sitting on the edge of our seats.
1247. cmackla
enough of gulf coast hits...its time for the east coast its been 5+ years since they have been hit real bad...i dont count hannah...as far as 91L.....are the troughs that are coming down going to protect the gulf from here on out? what are the steering currents looking like for the rest of september heading in to october?

1224. atmoaggie

Thks - with so much behind the storm that Pensacola saw Im really watching it. I think there could be some problems.
Quoting Patrap:
Bookmark this Link if you want current NOAA imagery for IKE.

..Link

UTC is displayed to YOUR puter settings.

Bookmark it .. It will be a Busy spot the next 48 hrs.



on this site if you mark the forcast track to overlay it is way off to the south of where it should be
Just watch it is doing what many invests do build convection stop then build it again until it is able to cross the thresshold of TD TS and beyond or it dies.
Quoting Xmarksthespot:
You have to wait for the very last frame, but it looks like the dreaded pinhole eye.

Thank you Stormjunkie and kman for your explaining things to us.

Link


Ike's damaged eye is anything but "dreaded" at this point.
Wow, some low-lying areas south of Houston are already flooding as water pushes in unnoticed. Not a good sign.

Getting breezy here in NW Houston but still very nice out.
Ike is actually looking a lot healthier in the last 2-3 satellite frames. The storm structure has been impressive all the way since Cuba, but deep convection (especially around the COC) has often been lacking and there have been substantial gaps in the cloud cover. Ike has fooled us before, but if the current satellite trend continues, Ike's surface winds will certainly be on the increase. Outflow to the W/NW/SW have improved notably over the past 3 hours, and deep convection is now firing in earnest around the center. Stay tuned...I think Ike will still be a cat 2 at the 5 PM advisory, but may be nearing cat 3 strength by the 11 PM. Ike still has enormous potential for damage and destruction from around Freeport, TX east to the southernmost parishes of LA. If you live in an area that could even potentially be affected by storm surge--that is, if your home is less than 25 feet above sea level--you need to leave while you still are able. Tropical storm conditions have already made some roads in LA treacherous or impassable. Act now. Ike is not weakening, and could still very well be a major hurriane at landfall...
Quoting 996tt:


Yeah, we drove by 17h at about 11 and it was open. At 1 it was under water and tide is still rising.

Yeah, I actually didn't expect this much effect from the storm. Now, that everyone is talking about a shift to more NW....I am wondering what this will mean for NOLA. I don't want this storm to land anywhere, but they def. couldn't take another blow like Katrina. I am heading to the beach to check out the waves breaking there.
1255. Patrap
What Happened to the GOES-12 FAST SCAN link ?

They dropped the feed or are they charging for It?

Sure could use it NOW.
Where is Fire today?
swlaphotographer, shouldn't you be evacuating? i believe they are predicting some MAJOR flooding for the Lack Chuck area.
Quoting Vortex95:
Just watch it is doing what many invests do build convection stop then build it again until it is able to cross the thresshold of TD TS and beyond or it dies.


Convection building, already a LLC (Josephine) however its only SOME of Josephine, so if it develops I'm pretty sure it would be renamed Kyle.
LafourcheLAgirl,
You have Mail!!!
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:


You know you will need a new name after this one!


Are you thinking that Wunderground is going to have to retire the username "Ike"? ;)
Quoting BlxMS:
Two quick comments...Gas Prices- Bro in law works for a major Jax, MS gas distributor and they were notified at 1PM today of an immediwte wholesale jump of $.85 a gallon...should show up at the pumps by tomorrow moring...adn could easily go higher very quickly.

Lots of talk about Ike strengthening / not strengthening. Based on real experience from Katrina, if you're very near the TX coast, whether its Cat 1, 2, 3 or whatever, you still have a VERY REAL problem. Dr. M. stated that Ike is already moving 50% more water than Katrina. I watched her surge come in with my own eyes and I can tell you that whether the winds were 70 mph or 135 mph...it really didn't matter. You are going to get a devastating surge regardless. Water kills often...Winds much less so. If you are going to "ride this out" near the coast, SERIOUSLY, write your name, SSN, and next of kin on your arms with a perm magic marker. It truly helped the recovery folks do their jobs here in MS. Get out if you're in danger, and if not, good luck. If you haven't seen a major storm surge for yourself...words cannot describe the terror. BE SMART.


It's going to be worse than that. Lost in the news shuffle of 9/11 and Ike today is that wholesale gas was trading between $4 and $5 today before closing at $4.25. If anyone is interested, that is higher than after Katrina. The focus has been on the rigs, but 20% of the nations gas supply comes from the Houston area, and it's all offline as we speak. After the storm passes you don't just flip a switch either, it takes 4-5 days to get a refinery back online not accounting for any damage.

The price of gas next week is going to be a bigger story than any storm damage Ike will bring.
so Ike is going to turn into a Cat 1 hurricane soon and head north.. and Houston is going in panic mode for nothing again..
1263. houstex
The mean direction across the NW wobles appears to be WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Wilma? Katrina the Florida Hit... they did take their toll here. A major hitting SE Florida is over due but weather it is this season next season or years later remaints to be determined.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone know we have 91L?
Yes, we've been watching carefully.
1266. Drakoen
I don't see much evidence of outflow improving. It looks like the northern outflow is getting restricted or a little suppressed by some continental dry air. The outflow is more of a slant than an arc. Makes it additionally difficult for the flow to wrap around to the west side. System is heavily reliant on its inner core atm.
Someone had promised us a break after Ike the terrible...somebody better inform 91L about the plan
1268. NEwxguy
Quoting cmackla:
enough of gulf coast hits...its time for the east coast its been 5+ years since they have been hit real bad...i dont count hannah...as far as 91L.....are the troughs that are coming down going to protect the gulf from here on out? what are the steering currents looking like for the rest of september heading in to october?


wow,thanks,I'd be more appreciative if you said we need more fish storms.
1269. BlxMS
Quoting swlaphotographer:
What would you all say the odds of this fella hitting near the beaumont area or closer to LA. I am in Lake Charles. We are sitting on the edge of our seats.


I'd be very vigilant. This could get bad for you. But, also, keep in ming that this thing, while not awfully intense, is REALLY BIG. Wouldn't take a very big jog to the north to put you in cane conditions for quite awhile and you're probably already looking at very substantial surge. You won't have to see the eye to get beaten up pretty badly with Ike. GL
1270. keyjo50
Anyone familiar with the traffic around Pt. Arthur, Sour Lake areas? I have a dear friend down there with rheumatoid arthritis who can't get out b/c of the traffic. I told her a few days ago to leave but she didn't listen to me. I'm very concerned.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


They're designed to take a licking and keep on ticking- but they come untethered all the time. It usually takes up to a year for NOAA to track down a loose buoy and re-tether it.


Cool thing is, sometimes they keep transmitting data the whole time they are adrift, along with lat/long location. Sometimes we get data from locations where we do not usually have any. 44004 went adrift back in March...hundreds of miles from it's original location and still transmitting.
Can somebody advise about the bayous that travel through the general Houston area. Do they drain into the shipping channel...and will the storm surge temporarily halt normal drainage, causing backup and flooding of the bayous? I have a friend that lives a few blocks from Brays Bayou west of downtown and the 8 tollway, and they are trying to decide whether to leave due to possible backup flooding.

Thanks ahead of time!
1240. CybrTeddy 8:24 PM GMT on September 11, 2008
Anyone know we have 91L?


91L looks sick. Don't even know why they classified it.

btw is 91L the remains of Jo what going to happen?

I ask cause I have a house in the silverlakes area in pembroke pines

also just came from helping boards go up in Shadow Creek Ranch

also if youre wondering im a floridian in texas Lol came here to get away from 04 05 like storms and job relocation and look how that turned out
So much for the Mayor asking employers to let their staff off work today. My wife just got off night shift (at an oil company) and is expected to drive amongst the I-10 exodus to get back to work tonight. She'll be driving home in the rubbish weather of tomorrow morning. There is something seriously wrong with our country. Looks like we are going to be stuck here in Houston whatever the hell Ike throws at us. You know what, it's just not worth it.
Quoting SEFL:


Bull!!

" Oil prices tumbled Thursday as the dollar rallied and demand worries outweighed a powerful Hurricane Ike barreling through the rig-dotted Gulf of Mexico.


New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October, slid 1.71 dollars to close at 100.87 dollars a barrel.

The New York contract fell to 100.10 dollars in intraday trade, approaching the 100-dollar threshold it had last crossed on April 1."


Please understand that while oil and gasoline commodity prices are highly correlated for very obvious reasons, gasoline is indeed a downstream commodity and has its own supply and demand characteristics. While the impact on oil supply as a result of tropical activity in the GOM is VERY frequently overstated, the interruption of refining capacity is a completely different event that has a concentrated impact on gasoline prices.

In fact, one might even argue that a reduction in refining capacity would, in the short term, also reduce the demand for crude, so the links you posted are not very explanatory.

Gasoline wholesale prices are indeed increasing substantially at present. Oil prices remain and should probably remain relatively stable.
OK, there is some strange behaviour with this storm. There seem to have almost been two eyes, but this is now clearly organising itself. There is still dry air from the west, but Ike appears to be wrapping himself in more moisture and the convection getting tighter. Most unbelievably, he seems to continue to be growing in size - which is the main reason that the winds haven't caught up with the pressure - dissipation of energy.
Frankly, I would hate to be anywhere in the northern Gulf right now, especially with my family. If you're worried, don't bother blogging here, just get out. Far better to have been wrong than the possible alternatives.
Just in case we're missing the obvious, Jeff Masters' blog here is titled "Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina".
Looking at the stage now, it seems that Ike's going to organise better, which is an issue. Remember Katrina went through an EWRC shortly before hitting the slightly cooler waters nearer the coast. If Ike's organisation improves...

I haven't heard much on the evac from Galveston. Is it now mandatory? Are people really leaving?
1280. myway
Quoting heightsmaniac:


It's going to be worse than that. Lost in the news shuffle of 9/11 and Ike today is that wholesale gas was trading between $4 and $5 today before closing at $4.25. If anyone is interested, that is higher than after Katrina. The focus has been on the rigs, but 20% of the nations gas supply comes from the Houston area, and it's all offline as we speak. After the storm passes you don't just flip a switch either, it takes 4-5 days to get a refinery back online not accounting for any damage.

The price of gas next week is going to be a bigger story than any storm damage Ike will bring.


Last estimate I saw this morning, was one third of the US refinerys were @ some type of risk from Ike.
1281. Vero1
Ike T.S force winds arrival in Texas.... 01 Days, 00 Hours, 30 Minutes
Doesn't matter, Beaumont. You're in a huge windfield with a storm surge. Nothing to guess about. Probably too late to go East, so go North and then west.
Ike appears to be storm of the century ,and, he may to do it without meeting the conventional major hurricane requirements.
I live on the East Coast Ga/Fla border ,and,locally, we seem to be becoming rather arrogant and sure that we can't be caught like New Orleans was. But, in 1898... and one day ,it will happen again.
Quoting samiam1234:
so Ike is going to turn into a Cat 1 hurricane soon and head north.. and Houston is going in panic mode for nothing again..


You haven't been paying attention. You get an F for this class.
91 has only just been born it could be near TD status Sat/Sun maybe earliar or later if convection and the marginally favorable conditions persist. I'd not expect it to become a Hurricane though a strong TS at worst but first i'd like to see it get into the organe and red for develompent for the NHC until i'm sure it will develop.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone know we have 91L?


Can you answer my questio in 1235?
Quoting cmackla:
enough of gulf coast hits...its time for the east coast its been 5+ years since they have been hit real bad...i dont count hannah...as far as 91L.....are the troughs that are coming down going to protect the gulf from here on out? what are the steering currents looking like for the rest of september heading in to october?

I know it is not any consolation since I have no way to control it, but if we could take the hits on the E coast, I would gladly sign up to give y'all a break and keep our economy in check.
hi can you tell me where you got this info from? thanks
Quoting truecajun:
Jindal has called a mandatory evac for all coastal parishes of Louisiana.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
1240. CybrTeddy 8:24 PM GMT on September 11, 2008
Anyone know we have 91L?


91L looks sick. Don't even know why they classified it.



How many invests we've seen look sick and most cases, about 8 days later its a Category 4/5 hurricane aiming towards the US? (Pre-Gustav, Pre-Ike)
http://finance.yahoo.com/futures

gas is trading at $2.75 - an .085 jump - not .85. The site shown will ease anyone's mind about $4 and $5 wholesale prices.
1291. chrisrw
Quoting cmackla:
enough of gulf coast hits...its time for the east coast its been 5+ years since they have been hit real bad...i dont count hannah...as far as 91L.....are the troughs that are coming down going to protect the gulf from here on out? what are the steering currents looking like for the rest of september heading in to october?


I guess you don't count Frances and Jeanne either!
1292. Vero1
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON LARGE
HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Quoting truecajun:
yes, we are still recovering. we've got a tarp on our roof and
dehumidifiers still inside, all the while insulation from the attic is
raining down on us. i'm assuming we'll at least get tropical storm
force winds in the baton rouge area? i hope our tarp holds.

Did you get my mail about the fiberglass about 1 week ago?
Quoting IKE:
Center near....

26.1N
89.3W....


So then it is to the right of the current forecast point
1297. ljk
this is no katrina, it will need to intensify and get a more impressive cdo.
Little bit of dry air west of Ike preventing a good outflow on that side.That should prevent it from reaching Cat5.
Just an quick update from Gulf Shores; water is up to the board walk, waves are 6-8 feet. Berms have been breeched in at least a dozen locations. Water over 1/2 the road on highway 180 in two locations. Several condos already have flooding in 1st floor. Several roads near the canal are flood and not passable.
Quoting gulfbeachgal:
I live in P'cola - gotta go to Fed Courthouse in the a.m. Does anyone in my neck of the woods know about possible downtown flooding around Garden & Palafox? I live out by Perdido Key and don't get into town much. Just wondering...
My prayers are with everyone in IKE's path. I survived IVAN by the grace of God.
Quoting gulfbeachgal:
I live in P'cola - gotta go to Fed Courthouse in the a.m. Does anyone in my neck of the woods know about possible downtown flooding around Garden & Palafox? I live out by Perdido Key and don't get into town much. Just wondering...
My prayers are with everyone in IKE's path. I survived IVAN by the grace of God.


I think you will be fine in Pensacola (downtown), your concern would prob be Gulf Beach HWY. Pensacola flooded in Ivan due to back up sewage processing plant that could not take on anymore water after Ivan. Stay safe.
Quoting heightsmaniac:


It's going to be worse than that. Lost in the news shuffle of 9/11 and Ike today is that wholesale gas was trading between $4 and $5 today before closing at $4.25. If anyone is interested, that is higher than after Katrina. The focus has been on the rigs, but 20% of the nations gas supply comes from the Houston area, and it's all offline as we speak. After the storm passes you don't just flip a switch either, it takes 4-5 days to get a refinery back online not accounting for any damage.

The price of gas next week is going to be a bigger story than any storm damage Ike will bring.


I am sorry but this is absolute BS! Quit it with these bogus remarks designed to scare people. I hear it all the time people I know say they talked to a clerk at a gas station and they said gas will be $6.00 by the end of the summer. Well that didnt happen but it was a "sure" thing. Looks like it closed 8 cents higher today @ 2.74/gal.
Quoting swlaphotographer:
What would you all say the odds of this fella hitting near the beaumont area or closer to LA. I am in Lake Charles. We are sitting on the edge of our seats.


I think that is where IKE is headed, although the official track is still the official track. The NHC track on Monday was to the TX/LA border and then they moved it all the way South to Corpus Christi on 5pm update.

The NHC has been catching up ever since.
Quoting PlantLady:
Can somebody advise about the bayous that travel through the general Houston area. Do they drain into the shipping channel...and will the storm surge temporarily halt normal drainage, causing backup and flooding of the bayous? I have a friend that lives a few blocks from Brays Bayou west of downtown and the 8 tollway, and they are trying to decide whether to leave due to possible backup flooding.

Thanks ahead of time!


This always seems to happen. The flow of most of the bayous is towards the ship channel but the biggest issue isn't inflow but rain.
I can't figure this storm out, if I look at WV it looks like it's headed for central LA, if I look visible it looks like it's headed for the upper TX coast. maybe he's tilted?
Quoting cmackla:
enough of gulf coast hits...its time for the east coast its been 5+ years since they have been hit real bad...i dont count hannah...as far as 91L.....are the troughs that are coming down going to protect the gulf from here on out? what are the steering currents looking like for the rest of september heading in to october?


Climatologically, trough patterns amplify starting in fall, as the jet stream starts dipping more to the south....So GOM storms would pose a threat to the GOM coast...But at the same time, with the troughs more prevalent and jet stream more pronounced in the south, shear will start picking up......
Quoting ljk:
this is no katrina, it will need to intensify and get a more impressive cdo.


Read Jeff's post.
Quoting Patrap:
What Happened to the GOES-12 FAST SCAN link ?

They dropped the feed or are they charging for It?

Sure could use it NOW.


This? Link
1309. Patrap
Hurricane Ike's storm surge
New Orleans under tropical storm warning
# Entergy says 18,000 lost power today 3:05 p.m. CT
# Energy industry scrambles to shut down refineries, offshore facilities, in advance of Hurricane Ike 2:39 p.m. CT
# Mandeville prepares for Ike storm surge 2:39 p.m. CT


nola.com Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:


How many invests we've seen look sick and most cases, about 8 days later its a Category 4/5 hurricane aiming towards the US? (Pre-Gustav, Pre-Ike)

It would seem that 91L would get sheared to pieces by Ike outflow, kind of like Hanna was by Gustav.( Hanna recovered, of cours), but I don't know about this latest invest. Check the shear models in a day or so and see what happens. Hope it just goes away.
Quoting LAgal78:


We're neighbors :) We lost all the food in our fridge and both freezers for Gustav...do you think I should go buy a generator this time?





go buy a generator. Even if you don't need it for this one, you may for the next one. It's not a bad investment
Quoting VAstorms:


This always seems to happen. The flow of most of the bayous is towards the ship channel but the biggest issue isn't inflow but rain.


Downtown is notorious for flooding. A surge like is being talked about would certainly be felt. I live on the Buffalo Bayou and right now that is making me a little uncomfortable I can tell you.
1313. AndyN
IKE a little North and East of TFP's:

Link

Mobile starting too flood too on Causeway:

http://www.wkrg.com/traffic/
Houston do we have a problem?lol
i know bad joke.
Ike is looking for restrenghtening now.
We will soon have a CAT 3 at or hands.
Bad.
1316. Patrap
Tyvm...

That will do.
Quoting chrisrw:


I guess you don't count Frances and Jeanne either!


I guess Isabel really doesn't count Either seeing it was 'only' a Category 2. But seeing how extremely seriously injured almost to the point of being mutilated and being locked out of my house due to pressure differences, East Coast doesn't need a Storm.
Quoting lunabaas2:
OK, there is some strange behaviour with this storm. There seem to have almost been two eyes, but this is now clearly organising itself. There is still dry air from the west, but Ike appears to be wrapping himself in more moisture and the convection getting tighter. Most unbelievably, he seems to continue to be growing in size - which is the main reason that the winds haven't caught up with the pressure - dissipation of energy.
Frankly, I would hate to be anywhere in the northern Gulf right now, especially with my family. If you're worried, don't bother blogging here, just get out. Far better to have been wrong than the possible alternatives.
Just in case we're missing the obvious, Jeff Masters' blog here is titled "Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina".
Looking at the stage now, it seems that Ike's going to organise better, which is an issue. Remember Katrina went through an EWRC shortly before hitting the slightly cooler waters nearer the coast. If Ike's organisation improves...

I haven't heard much on the evac from Galveston. Is it now mandatory? Are people really leaving?


Galveston is on mandatory evac now as is the majority, if not all, of the coastal zip codes in the Hurricane Warning areas at this time. Traffic is building all over the city as people are evacuating and others are just getting off of work or out of school. Many gas stations are out of gas and there are lines in front of many stores to GET IN.
yes i agree stormw. I mean you have to say to the right of last past if you look at where he is now compared to where he is supposed to be
1320. NEwxguy
Quoting washingaway:
I can't figure this storm out, if I look at WV it looks like it's headed for central LA, if I look visible it looks like it's headed for the upper TX coast. maybe he's tilted?


yeh,you have entered a very large and growing group,standing room only
Category 2 Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina


now that is scary. Now larger, ok, i guess i can live with that, but more powerful... *shudders*
Quoting LyonOfLongBeach:
http://finance.yahoo.com/futures

gas is trading at $2.75 - an .085 jump - not .85. The site shown will ease anyone's mind about $4 and $5 wholesale prices.


14:41 COMDX NYMEX Energy Closing Prices

Crude ended off $1.90 to $100.68, natural gas settled lower by 15.1 cents to $7.242, heating oil finished up .92 cents to $2.9116 and RBOB gasoline gained 8.89 cents to $2.7505 (all Oct contracts).

15:47 COMDX DOE says expects constraints in fuel supply with most gulf coast refineries shut for hurricane Ike - Reuters
Quoting StormW:
Good afternon...

Based on careful analysis of various satellite loop channels, and updated steering currents forceast maps, IKE should maintain close to the present track. I believe however...that due to the unexpected short jog NW this afternoon, track may have to shift right slightly. Regardless...if he holds on current motion...the track may have to adjust to over Galveston or slightly east, or possibly in bwteen Galveston and Bueamont. This will depend on the timing of the trof west of TX. IMO.


thanks Storm! Hey, what happens if it maintains that NW track?
Quoting StormW:
Good afternon...

Based on careful analysis of various satellite loop channels, and updated steering currents forceast maps, IKE should maintain close to the present track. I believe however...that due to the unexpected short jog NW this afternoon, track may have to shift right slightly. Regardless...if he holds on current motion...the track may have to adjust to over Galveston or slightly east, or possibly in bwteen Galveston and Bueamont. This will depend on the timing of the trof west of TX. IMO.


Thanks Storm W!

The W edge of the high is weaker yet again and the SW flow is now across central Texas and advancing East. Ike is on the right side of the next TFP and at 5 I would not be surprised to see NW motion with a track shift further East.

The steering looks to be breaking down.

Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Ike's storm surge
New Orleans under tropical storm warning
# Entergy says 18,000 lost power today 3:05 p.m. CT
# Energy industry scrambles to shut down refineries, offshore facilities, in advance of Hurricane Ike 2:39 p.m. CT
# Mandeville prepares for Ike storm surge 2:39 p.m. CT


nola.com Link


hey Pat, I'm on the westbank, the power poles are swaying in the wind....I expect to lose power anytime now.
Quoting Patrap:
What Happened to the GOES-12 FAST SCAN link ?

They dropped the feed or are they charging for It?

Sure could use it NOW.


Pat, would this RSO link help? (at least until dark...visible only)
Looks like Ike will be causing a lot of trouble well inland as well:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

I'll need an ark if that much rain actually falls in 3 days (also due to moisture from Lowell)... LOL
Sorry been told 8AM TS force winds on coastal TX.
Anybody else notice that the GOES WV loop is missing the last 5 frames on the goes.noaa.gov site?
Okay, I am usually quiet, reading and trying to learn as much as possible but I have to say, if "HarvardMBA" says that Ike is "Sub-tropical" again, I am going to call my brother, Prof. Jowers, at Harvard and ask why they are giving away MBA's.
1332. LFMman
Hello...

Concentrated rain band only extends 60NM from the center of Ike? Just a few stray thunderstorms elsewhere... for a storm this big? So dry?

Dyn-o-Gel
Quoting Rysh:
Link

Speed up the animation and see for yourself, if Ike continues this track with no westerly push there is no way possible of a Freeport/Galveston eye crossing. If I live in SW Louisiana I would be getting prepared right now.

I am not trying to scare anybody but this is my observation.

I live in Houston Tx by the way.
Sure seems that way. Man, after Rita and Gustav I really feel for you folks. No matter what- you are getting a big storm surge out of this- maybe worse.
Take care all.
Texans-Ravens game might be moved to the Georgia Dome due to Ike...
Price at the pump could definately be an impact of Ike.

Quoting : MADLEN READ Associated Press
The wholesale price of gasoline is what refineries charge retailers. Retailers then mark up those prices for the customer so they can make a profit — so if these wholesale prices hold, it could mean that pump prices for U.S. drivers easily break through the July 17 record of $4.114 a gallon.


Link
1336. Kjsasey
Quoting lunabaas2:
OK, there is some strange behaviour with this storm. There seem to have almost been two eyes, but this is now clearly organising itself. There is still dry air from the west, but Ike appears to be wrapping himself in more moisture and the convection getting tighter. Most unbelievably, he seems to continue to be growing in size - which is the main reason that the winds haven't caught up with the pressure - dissipation of energy.
Frankly, I would hate to be anywhere in the northern Gulf right now, especially with my family. If you're worried, don't bother blogging here, just get out. Far better to have been wrong than the possible alternatives.
Just in case we're missing the obvious, Jeff Masters' blog here is titled "Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina".
Looking at the stage now, it seems that Ike's going to organise better, which is an issue. Remember Katrina went through an EWRC shortly before hitting the slightly cooler waters nearer the coast. If Ike's organisation improves...

I haven't heard much on the evac from Galveston. Is it now mandatory? Are people really leaving?


Zone A and Zone B are Mandatory but don't think any zips from Zone C have been added yet. This is all I know and that is for Harris county..
Quoting washingaway:


hey Pat, I'm on the westbank, the power poles are swaying in the wind....I expect to lose power anytime now.
Now this tells us something.
Quoting BiloxiGirl:
Where is Fire today?
he said last night he had to work today I think
1339. Rysh
There are going to be some pissed off folks here in Houston when this storm makes landfall in Louisiana AGAIN!

Our company closed early today and we are off tomorrow. Looks like a long weekend for me!
Quoting NormalGuy:
Okay, I am usually quiet, reading and trying to learn as much as possible but I have to say, if "HarvardMBA" says that Ike is "Sub-tropical" again, I am going to call my brother, Prof. Jowers, at Harvard and ask why they are giving away MBA's.

HarvardMBA should be ignored - he's been reported numerous times...
Ok totally ignored when I asked this. Can someone please help?? Storm, Drak, Cybr...

Questions about 91L. Looking at the charts it appears 91L's strongest vorticity is more at mid-levels. He also has to contend with the ULL to his northwest. Although the ULL does look like it is weakening. Shear also doesn't look very favorable and there is no low pressure associated with 91L. If I am reading all this right, realistically there doesn't seem to be any chance of development. What is going on with it that the NHC would declare it an invest? It looked better yesterday.
1342. azduck
Well... here's hoping that the system stays (relatively) weak and that the majority of its windfield and surge go E of Galveston (which gives about 60-70 miles of Chambers County and swampland until you get to the built-up areas of Beaumont-Orange-Port Arthur.

I'm surprised by the relatively low max windspeeds being reported but given what's happening with the surges in AL and FL... yikes.

All this is why the Galveston mayor screwed the pooch yesterday.
Quoting NormalGuy:
Okay, I am usually quiet, reading and trying to learn as much as possible but I have to say, if "HarvardMBA" says that Ike is "Sub-tropical" again, I am going to call my brother, Prof. Jowers, at Harvard and ask why they are giving away MBA's.

Glad you spoke up - please let us know the reasoning!
1344. Vero1
Quoting TheMeanSeason:


14:41 COMDX NYMEX Energy Closing Prices

Crude ended off $1.90 to $100.68, natural gas settled lower by 15.1 cents to $7.242, heating oil finished up .92 cents to $2.9116 and RBOB gasoline gained 8.89 cents to $2.7505 (all Oct contracts).

15:47 COMDX DOE says expects constraints in fuel supply with most gulf coast refineries shut for hurricane Ike - Reuters
Yes oil prices down. The wholesellers have increase prices $1.50-$2.35 per gallon. (KHOU news broadcast)
I think we are assuming that he has a HArvard MBA!? HAHA!!
Oh Damn. Gas really is going to be $5 a gallon tomorrow. Sorry to whomever I argued about this with earlier.

Here's the bloomberg article about wholesale gase prices jumping to $4.75/gallon today.
KmanIslander, Ridge north of Ike is holding, look at the outflow how it cant go farther north inland on the infrared in the FL panhandle
1312. stormwatcherTX 8:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2008 Hide this comment.

Quoting VAstorms:


This always seems to happen. The flow of most of the bayous is towards the ship channel but the biggest issue isn't inflow but rain.



Downtown is notorious for flooding. A surge like is being talked about would certainly be felt. I live on the Buffalo Bayou and right now that is making me a little uncomfortable I can tell you.


Expect every one of those bayous to reverse flow direction at some point during Ike's approach/passage.
Quoting TheMeanSeason:


14:41 COMDX NYMEX Energy Closing Prices

Crude ended off $1.90 to $100.68, natural gas settled lower by 15.1 cents to $7.242, heating oil finished up .92 cents to $2.9116 and RBOB gasoline gained 8.89 cents to $2.7505 (all Oct contracts).

15:47 COMDX DOE says expects constraints in fuel supply with most gulf coast refineries shut for hurricane Ike - Reuters


Please be careful not to impute spot differences in gasoline prices from futures contracts. Futures contracts imbed numerous weeks of potential volatility and an expected return to typical supply post hurricane.

In the very immediate future, consumers in the gulf coast whose supplies are inordinately impacted by gulf coast production should indeed expect a reasonably sharp increase in the price of gasoline as a response to current wholesale price changes, which, based on futures pricing, is expected to subside with some rapidity over the weeks following hurricane Ike as production resumes. People in other parts of the country will see more muted increases.

Link
Quoting stormwatcherTX:


Downtown is notorious for flooding. A surge like is being talked about would certainly be felt. I live on the Buffalo Bayou and right now that is making me a little uncomfortable I can tell you.


I always worried about Brays Bayou as we lived right next to a section of it. My mother is in Vosswood Nursing home that I believe is on a split of Buffalo Bayou and that area also worries me as well.
Quoting katywatcher:


Galveston is on mandatory evac now as is the majority, if not all, of the coastal zip codes in the Hurricane Warning areas at this time. Traffic is building all over the city as people are evacuating and others are just getting off of work or out of school. Many gas stations are out of gas and there are lines in front of many stores to GET IN.


That sounds like a mess. Did you guys accidentally elect C Ray?
Seriously, TS winds are going to be hitting in the morning. I haven't had chance to see the local news from there, but do you think it's going to be properly evacced?
Quoting DNel1285:


I am sorry but this is absolute BS! Quit it with these bogus remarks designed to scare people. I hear it all the time people I know say they talked to a clerk at a gas station and they said gas will be $6.00 by the end of the summer. Well that didnt happen but it was a "sure" thing. Looks like it closed 8 cents higher today @ 2.74/gal.


I am not trying to BS anyone. Your link is for October gas futures. Look, don't call me a liar, call Forbes a liar....:

Link
1353. SaoFeng
Great post from (in)accuweather met.

In this day and age, even the loss of one life is really unnecessary. It's time to leave. If you live on the coast between Port Lavaca and Galveston Island, you only have 24 hours to get out of harm's way. And if the storm is not as bad as predicted, what did you lose? Certainly, not your life.

Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.
Quoting conchygirl:
se - Thanks for keeping it real.



He is not keeping it real... the first poster was correct.. this is from Yahoo Finance-- the price of oil has nothing to do with the price of gas--well, a little, but not as much as you think.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Gasoline prices jumped to unprecedented levels in the wholesale markets Thursday as Hurricane Ike tore across the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to strike Texas and its refineries.

Crude oil on the futures market, however, sank below $101 a barrel to its lowest settlement price since late March -- a sign that investors are still worried about waning global demand.

ADVERTISEMENT
The wholesale price of gasoline ranged from $4 to nearly $5 a gallon in the U.S. Gulf Coast throughout the day on Thursday, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst of the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J.

That was up significantly from about $3 to $3.30 a gallon on Wednesday, Kloza said, and the surge drove up wholesale prices in other U.S. regions, too.

"We're looking at the highest wholesale prices ever for a huge swath of the country," he said. "People understand that regardless of what happens with Ike, it's going to shut down the biggest refining cluster for a period of five, six, seven days."
1355. BlxMS
Quoting PlantLady:
Can somebody advise about the bayous that travel through the general Houston area. Do they drain into the shipping channel...and will the storm surge temporarily halt normal drainage, causing backup and flooding of the bayous? I have a friend that lives a few blocks from Brays Bayou west of downtown and the 8 tollway, and they are trying to decide whether to leave due to possible backup flooding.

Thanks ahead of time!


I would respectfully disagree with the first response you got to your question. Don't remember the name of the storm (pretty sure it was an "A" though), in 1979 or 1980 Galveston took only a TS hit and I lived near Braes Bayou, and yes, the area did flood and not from rain. Just off the SW corner of the 610 loop went underwater and it was reported that it was due to combo of lunar high tide and surge into the ship channel. I may be a bit too cautious, but if I were there I'd be very worried about the surge coming up the channel...particularly if the center comes in at Galveston. Further, though, IMO Houston is far enough inland that I wouldn't evacuate unless I was in a flood prone area. A solidly built house that far inland is, again, IMHO, safer that being on the road with a million evacuees...Can you say Rita / Wilma? GL to your friends
1356. AndyN
A gas station here in Alabama had signs on the pumps to limit to 10 gallons due to shortage in the SE.
anybody watching the news coverage of those people in Galveston that have had to wait over 8 hours to board a bus?? what the heck is holding it up.. some elderly people might end up in trouble health wise.. why is the wait so damn long?
Quoting HurricaneParty:
Oh Damn. Gas really is going to be $5 a gallon tomorrow. Sorry to whomever I argued about this with earlier.

Here's the bloomberg article about wholesale gase prices jumping to $4.75/gallon today.


Ya'll are worried about gas already come on what ya gonna do tell Ike to go play somewhere else? Ike it the topic at hand I think ... :)
Have they begun counterflow on I-45 yet?
Quoting DNel1285:


I am sorry but this is absolute BS! Quit it with these bogus remarks designed to scare people. I hear it all the time people I know say they talked to a clerk at a gas station and they said gas will be $6.00 by the end of the summer. Well that didnt happen but it was a "sure" thing. Looks like it closed 8 cents higher today @ 2.74/gal.


Got to Yahoo Fiance and look fro yourself Why are you calling him out on this?
Quoting Cotillion:
Texans-Ravens game might be moved to the Georgia Dome due to Ike...


Someone said yesterday that the Texans were "sucking" Ike towards Houston. Given that, you guys along the La/MS/AL/FL coast may not want that game moved to Georgia.
Quoting VAstorms:


I always worried about Brays Bayou as we lived right next to a section of it. My mother is in Vosswood Nursing home that I believe is on a split of Buffalo Bayou and that area also worries me as well.


Yes, I know where that is and it is a little worrying.
Quoting DNel1285:


I am sorry but this is absolute BS! Quit it with these bogus remarks designed to scare people. I hear it all the time people I know say they talked to a clerk at a gas station and they said gas will be $6.00 by the end of the summer. Well that didnt happen but it was a "sure" thing. Looks like it closed 8 cents higher today @ 2.74/gal.


Forbes: Gas Prices Spike as Ike heads toward Texas
DMyersNormanOK

WU Mail
Quoting RitaEvac:
KmanIslander, Ridge north of Ike is holding, look at the outflow how it cant go farther north inland on the infrared in the FL panhandle


The ridge is decaying from W to E.
Look at the W periphery. It is moving East and lifting to the N. Earlier it was dipping some to the W of Ike. That is pretty much gone now which will allow the storm to head more in a NW direction.
People only go to Harvard because they could not get into Yale LOL
those tropical points are way off??wt?
PLEASE, if you are anywhere in the worst part of the cone, you need to leave and PLEASE take your pets because they will not survive the winds outside and will likely drown inside if the surge is as expected. Why take a chance?
Your believing a steering map on a screen and looking at crap that isnt the truth, just like the models sucked all along on the track for IKe, look at Satellite and you know what the ridge is doing.
HarvardMBA, first of all not trying to offend you its just that people with any degree from Harvard don't usually brag about it. And sorry to say but I think, (in my limited knowledge) Ike is pretty close to being a poster-boy for tropical cyclones. So please no more ignorant comments. If you say it to yourself and it makes no sense just don't type. Keep it to yourself
Quoting kmanislander:
The W edge of the high is weaker yet again and the SW flow is now across central Texas and advancing East. Ike is on the right side of the next TFP and at 5 I would not be surprised to see NW motion with a track shift further East.

The steering looks to be breaking down.



Thanks for sharing your insights. I have enjoyed and benefitted from them for some time.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Looks like Ike will be causing a lot of trouble well inland as well:



I'll need an ark if that much rain actually falls in 3 days (also due to moisture from Lowell)... LOL


The amount of rain that falls also has a direct impact on trees that fall. The oaks down here in the south almost never break, they uproot. The soggier the ground...the obvious result.

Not at all important in the piney woods where the junk-pines just snap.
Suppose Ike takes a sudden and drastic turn to the north or northeast. What happens to its surge waters? Do they keep moving to the west(as my high school physics class would suggest) or would some other factor cause them to turn with the hurricane?
With the new recon data showing FL winds @ 116 mph, isn't that the highest yet since Cuba? Also the SFC winds have come up 20 mph.

Also, I can't get away from it; the center keeps tracking north of the forecast track. SW LA is still in for a pounding.
1377. wjdow4
Quoting StormW:
Good afternon...

Based on careful analysis of various satellite loop channels, and updated steering currents forceast maps, IKE should maintain close to the present track. I believe however...that due to the unexpected short jog NW this afternoon, track may have to shift right slightly. Regardless...if he holds on current motion...the track may have to adjust to over Galveston or slightly east, or possibly in bewteen Galveston and Bueamont. This will depend on the timing of the trof west of TX. IMO.


slightly east of galveston vs slightly west is a big difference at least for people deciding whether to stay or go. i'm already boarded up and ready to go, but no one likes to leave if they don't absolutely have to. may not know until tomorrow. has anyone heard when the water is projected to rise enough to force the closing of the causeway? thanks.
AAA statement on gas prices

Posted: Sep 11, 2008 03:05 PM EDT

Updated: Sep 11, 2008 04:40 PM EDT


Live 5 News Headlines

CHARLESTON, SC (WCSC) - Several of you have called or emailed about a possible gas price hike in the Lowcountry. The following is a statement from AAA.

Gasoline prices in the wholesale market spiked this afternoon as Hurricane Ike headed across the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas and its refineries. Some gasoline stations in the Carolinas have begun limiting the amount of a gasoline purchase and raising their pump prices.

"Hurricane Ike is projected to hit landfall in Texas Friday or Saturday and in anticipation of its storm path, refineries in the Gulf of Mexico have closed," said David E. Parsons, CEO and President of AAA Carolinas.

"Gas prices have gone up and some stations have placed a restriction on the number of gallons customers can buy because it is unclear right now how long the refineries will remain closed or if they will sustain any damage," he said.

"The worst thing that could happen would be for motorists to flock to gas stations to top off their tanks," said Parsons. "That will worsen the situation before anyone knows what the damage will be. We encourage people not to panic, drive conservatively and don't take unnecessary trips until the damage assessment is completed early next week."

This gas spike comes on the heels of the closing of some refineries in the past few days based on the expected path of Hurricane Gustav, said Parsons, and Gustav did not cause any major damage and the refineries reopened and put more oil into the pipeline. Parsons said most refineries made significant changes to their oil rigs after Hurricane Katrina three years ago and these upgrades are designed to protect against hurricanes. Flooding and a loss of electricity are the biggest fears.

An affiliate of the American Automobile Association, AAA Carolinas is a not-for-profit organization that serves more than 1.7 million members with travel, automobile and insurance services while being an advocate for the safety and security of all travelers.

OPEC monitors oil prices and production. Crude oil is refined to make gasoline.
1379. jscs
Quoting BlxMS:


I would respectfully disagree with the first response you got to your question. Don't remember the name of the storm (pretty sure it was an "A" though), in 1979 or 1980 Galveston took only a TS hit and I lived near Braes Bayou, and yes, the area did flood and not from rain. Just off the SW corner of the 610 loop went underwater and it was reported that it was due to combo of lunar high tide and surge into the ship channel. I may be a bit too cautious, but if I were there I'd be very worried about the surge coming up the channel...particularly if the center comes in at Galveston. Further, though, IMO Houston is far enough inland that I wouldn't evacuate unless I was in a flood prone area. A solidly built house that far inland is, again, IMHO, safer that being on the road with a million evacuees...Can you say Rita / Wilma? GL to your friends


I saw earlier, not a few hours ago, where the Gov of Texas mentioned these shipping channels around Houston. He then said that models show, should those channels get the surge, that 1.5 million people would die. Now, I don't post alarmist stuff and honestly I know nothing about Houston... this was a direct quote from the Gov. I'm sure MSNBC is still showing the clip online.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.
1381. Vero1
Take the gas prices, futures, etc.. to a dang finance forum and talk about the weather here. Enough
Kman..departing from west to east? Is that why the w. side of Ike is looking better this hour?
If this bad boy does turn NW or N, and the NHC track adjusts East of Galveston/Houston, does anybody see anything that could steer it back this way (I am in Pearland, Brazoria Co., TX)?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Your believing a steering map on a screen and looking at crap that isnt the truth, just like the models sucked all along on the track for IKe, look at Satellite and you know what the ridge is doing.


Hey, you have your opinion and I have mine. Chill out
AHHH System overload! I wish someone knew exactly where this thing was going so I could put my ulcer at rest! Ike is definelty living up to his name! He is making me nuts! I don't know whether to leave or stay anymore.
1387. LLHi
1328 MichaelSTL
see that little white area on the texas map you posted for rainfall????!?!?!!
that's where i am......we're in a drought and i cannot believe that between a trop storm on the west and a hurricane on the east...we won't get any rain!!!!

argh
1388. Vero1
000
WTNT34 KNHC 112047
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE HEADED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...820
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
645 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



Quoting pretrib1611:
With the new recon data showing FL winds @ 116 mph, isn't that the highest yet since Cuba? Also the SFC winds have come up 20 mph.

Also, I can't get away from it; the center keeps tracking north of the forecast track. SW LA is still in for a pounding.
yes it is tracking Nw and even our beloved Cantore said, "right now Ike appears to be moving North of the forecast points so those in Beaumont/Port Arthur and even Lake Charles need to watch this closely"
Quoting NormalGuy:
HarvardMBA, first of all not trying to offend you its just that people with any degree from Harvard don't usually brag about it. And sorry to say but I think, (in my limited knowledge) Ike is pretty close to being a poster-boy for tropical cyclones. So please no more ignorant comments. If you say it to yourself and it makes no sense just don't type. Keep it to yourself

I've found the Ignore User link right under the comment effective for eliminating folks like him/her from the comments that are displayed.

Anyone else having trouble bringing up the sat loops? Are the servers just overwhelmed? What's going on?
Quoting Clonefan:


He is right now moving north about 340. You people in La better take notice.


I'm in SWLA....link please? ty:)
1392. myway
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Take the gas prices, futures, etc.. to a dang finance forum and talk about the weather here. Enough

It is weather related.
If hurricane takes out refineries You pay a lot more.
Does anyone have any media tv links to Ike?
Latest coordinate @ N 26 W 89.4 has Ike back to heading W/NW at 290. Forward speed close to 10 MPH.
Quoting gulfbeachgal:
I live in P'cola - gotta go to Fed Courthouse in the a.m. Does anyone in my neck of the woods know about possible downtown flooding around Garden & Palafox? I live out by Perdido Key and don't get into town much. Just wondering...
My prayers are with everyone in IKE's path. I survived IVAN by the grace of God.


I know that earlier today 9th Ave by Aragon, down at the bayfront by the foot of the Bay Bridge, and under the 17th St (Graffiti) underpass were all underwater. Don't really see it getting any better, but there are side roads you can take.
1397. TRD
I am in the Deer Park/Pasadena area. We boarded up today and are leaving within the hour. I can tell you that MOST people in my area seem to be staying to ride it out. About 50 percent seem to be boarding up.
I can't believe they didn't shift the track a little to the east???? Or will that come at the 7:00 update?
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...820
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
645 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.
Quoting conchygirl:
se - Thanks for keeping it real.

Gasoline prices are not the same as oil prices. Refining capacity is likely to take a huge hit here. If there is a huge hit to refining capacity that will reduce the demand for oil because there is nowhere to refine it. So retail gasoline prices could indeed skyrocket as the price of crude falls. I'm not saying the $0.85 figure is correct, only that it is conceivable even in the face of $100 oil.
1401. Vero1
000
WTNT44 KNHC 112051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

A PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
FINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT...WHICH ADJUST TO
80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER
WIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE
ARE ABOUT 100 KT...AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI.
AS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO
ABOUT 954 MB...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER
AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF
IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT
AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED...
CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND IN THIS
CONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO
STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY
WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.

IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY RECURVE
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN 48-72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH LANDFALL. AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...BUT IS STILL JUST LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVERAGE 36-HOUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 NMI.

BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 26.0N 89.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 26.6N 90.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 27.6N 93.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 95.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1800Z 37.0N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Quoting muddertracker:
Kman..departing from west to east? Is that why the w. side of Ike is looking better this hour?


I said decaying, not departing. When the ridge does break down it will do so from W to E
1403. Rysh
I can't quote for some reason, but yes the Tropical Forcast Points are WAY off the current track, this is why I have been predicting a SW Louisisna landfall.

Nobody seems interested in my forcast though.
still wnw at 10
000
WTNT34 KNHC 112047
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE HEADED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...820
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
645 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




Kman hopefully your right and it goes to Beaumont and stays east of Galveston, if it does I have no respect for the NHC, they suck and no longer believe anything from here on out.
Quoting gwhite713:
Does anyone have any media tv links to Ike?


KHOU

Dyno Gel
This may not be of any great importance, but since I drove into the Lockheed Martin facility around 1440 hours CDT, there has been at least 10 military aircraft (and that number is increasing as I write this) that have launched off the NAS JRB Fort Worth (the old Carswell AFB for all you old SAC guys) runway, departing to the south (such a large number in such as short period of time is very unusual, even for this place). Four F-16s (with underwing tanks) that I saw launching to the south did not manuever east or west, which may have them going to one of the weapon ranges due south of here near Fort Hood. We have some weather coming in from the southwest to northeast that may be something that Lowell is having an impact on (it sure is up around Lubbock all the way towards Oklahoma City). The ramps at NAS JRB Fort Worth were full of aircraft yesterday; a photographers delight. The transient aircraft from other bases that have been on beddown here may have gotten the order to depart this area. I doubt there is any F-35 JSF testing going on as the four test aircraft looked to be in there hangers.
The East Houston refineries, which are the largest in the USA, are very, very vulnerable to storm surges of 12-foot +.

ExxonMobil in Baytown is huge, but it should fair better than some others.

Shell refinery in Deer Park, Tx is on the water at the South side of the ship channel. A 12-foot surge would be enough to cause several feet of water from the ship channel to flow into the plant to a 2'-3' depth. The first 12"-18" means very little. Even though the ground is flat, Pumps and electrical equipment are generally on raised pedestals 12" to 18" above grade. Water above 24" is a huge issue. If your MCC buildings, pump motors, electrical switchgear, etc... become partially submerged, then all of that has to be checked, parts replaced and computer controls rewired. It could shut a plant down for 6-months to a year easily.

BP in Texas City is just as vulnerable, but only if the levees fail. If the levees hold, BP will be fine.

What will really mess up the industry is that the tanking, pumping stations and shipping facilities are normally vulnerable to storm surge. Many are in low-lying coastal areas for access to shipping and barges. If the tanking and pumping operations go off-line... shut down the refineries.

If anyone thinks equipment grows on trees... think again. It can take 6-months to buy and get delivery of a 900hp electric motor. It can take a year to replace your switch gear cabinets or replace computerized process control equipment. Basically... if East and South Houston floods badly, don't expect the refineries just to pop back into production.
1409. LAgal78
Can't wait for the next update...I have no fingernails left *LOL*
Quoting GulfScotsman:
sorry jupitar.

i didint not meen to offence you


lol
1411. myrc60
Quoting AndyN:
A gas station here in Alabama had signs on the pumps to limit to 10 gallons due to shortage in the SE.


We've been told the same thing here in Upstate, SC. One station (a no name) spiked to $3.69/gal. Hear it is related to having to shut the pipes leading here down because of Gustav and now Ike. We've been asked not to panic but you know there are people doing so. We need RAIN.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:

Gasoline prices are not the same as oil prices. Refining capacity is likely to take a huge hit here. If there is a huge hit to refining capacity that will reduce the demand for oil because there is nowhere to refine it. So retail gasoline prices could indeed skyrocket as the price of crude falls. I'm not saying the $0.85 figure is correct, only that it is conceivable even in the face of $100 oil.
There is no doubt there will be an impact and especially if there is damage but I think the other post was a bit dramatic. IMO
1413. usa777
Just checked out the latest IR loop and Ike may be getting a little more geared up.
I am interested in your forecast 1403. what do you think the chances are of this thing hitting nola once it makes its "north turn" I am scared to death down here in Braithwaite
1415. chrisrw
Quoting F1or1d1an:

HarvardMBA should be ignored - he's been reported numerous times...


Easier to put him on ignore - then you don't have to report him. And if he really IS a Harvard MBA, then I'm the Pope.
vero don't post advisory twice only ounce per blogger
1417. Patrap

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI 20 frame loop Link
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Take the gas prices, futures, etc.. to a dang finance forum and talk about the weather here. Enough


Sorry, I started it. I think it is important. For the past 5 days Dr. Masters and others have shown a bunch of dots representing rigs and how the storm will pass through them. No one has shown all the dots along Galveston Bay representing oil refineries and how the storm will pass through them. A 15ft storm surge will flood Exxon's refinery in Baytown, the largest refinery in the World.
Quoting gwhite713:
Does anyone have any media tv links to Ike?


Houston TV live feeds: Link
1420. snotly
I dont like how ike's IKE spikes
I think to limit confusion with our blogger pal Ike, we should start refering to the hurricane Ike as Big McLargeHuge.

Just trying to give some smiles. Bless everyone in the storm's path.
okay, well i kinda enjoy seeing my thoughts on here so now I have a question: Can anyone tell me what the chances are of inland damage. I live in Northern Mississippi and we had sustained winds of 40-50mph for about 12 hours after Katrina made it up my way and just stalled. Not as bad as the coast but in the delta (where i live) there is nothing to stop the wind and we had 13 trees (i mean huge trees) down on my block alone. With a windfield like Ike there is gonna be plenty of damage. Correct???
Quoting heightsmaniac:


Sorry, I started it. I think it is important. For the past 5 days Dr. Masters and others have shown a bunch of dots representing rigs and how the storm will pass through them. No one has shown all the dots along Galveston Bay representing oil refineries and how the storm will pass through them. A 15ft storm surge will flood Exxon's refinery in Baytown, the largest refinery in the World.


Making up BS stories is not helpful.
kmanislander i wish to thank you for taking the time to be with us, and to assure you your kindness and knowledge as well as the delivery of good news and bad news is appreciated.


outlook

Week 2 Outlook – Valid: Sep 16 – 22, 2008
Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.
Issued: 9/8
1. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the eastern Pacific, southern Mexico and parts of Central America. The suppressed
phase of the MJO is expected to result in dry conditions in this region during the period. Confidence: Moderate
2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Indonesia. The suppressed phase of the MJO is
expected to result in dry conditions in this region during the period. Confidence: Moderate
3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall stretching from Southeast Asia into the western Pacific. The enhanced phase of the MJO is
expected to result in wet conditions in this region during the period. Confidence: Moderate
4. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for the western Pacific. A favorable phase of the MJO (enhanced convection, favorable low-level wind
anomalies and anticipated weak vertical shear) increase the threat for tropical development during the period. Confidence: Moderate
See Text Item: The suppressed phase of the MJO is expected to result in a decrease in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity
during the period.
anyone can read this blog dont give away intelligence secrets
1426. mabella
Quoting DNel1285:


I am sorry but this is absolute BS! Quit it with these bogus remarks designed to scare people. I hear it all the time people I know say they talked to a clerk at a gas station and they said gas will be $6.00 by the end of the summer. Well that didnt happen but it was a "sure" thing. Looks like it closed 8 cents higher today @ 2.74/gal.


Well, the price can't truly be predicted at the moment but what is being said isn't total BS. What people aren't remembering is that the refineries in coastal Louisiana, in fact all of Louisiana, are NOT online after Gustav. Now with all the TX refineries shut down, all the LA refineries shut down, it basically leaves two along the Gulf Coast that are operational. So, gas will increase in price...if you can find it. I'd suggest filling all your tanks now.
Surprise, NHC moved track slightly right, still to left of the models..........playing catch-up, as models are going to keep moving right.
Quoting GulfScotsman:
What is Jindell doing?


I think he's down in Cameron Parish...Link
lafourche, that's actually a good question. I don't know the answer to that but surely Sir Isaac would have us believe that the waves will continue to go in the same direction. I'm thinking that it is a question of forces, which would cause a slight change in direction, but the momentum would of course not change.
Alright, I was watching CNN, your absolutly crazy to stay what I saw what Galveston's already getting! People who live on beach side houses are already getting flooded by storm surge! They had video of it from a Helicopter, Anyone who stays has mental issues.
1433. icyD


This could become a tragedy if people trying to evacuate cannot buy gas!

The wave water surge rise could be frightening (Moses?)for the people of the whole coast, Galveston, Houston...recurrent dreams.
(that's why i am reading here while living on the other side of the planet.

thanks for this blog and comments, explaining so well all the interactions.


Thank you SellieBaby - appreciate the info!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Kman hopefully your right and it goes to Beaumont and stays east of Galveston, if it does I have no respect for the NHC, they suck and no longer believe anything from here on out.


At this point it does not matter who is right or wrong. This hurricane is going to inflict a lot of damage and misery over a very wide swath of the gulf coast.

I just don't see the current track holding given what I see setting up in the upper levels and the slow forward speed. Ike keeps pushing E of the TFPs and that has been the pattern since he left the N coast of Cuba
Omg that is a huge windfield.
Quoting TexasGulf:
The East Houston refineries, which are the largest in the USA, are very, very vulnerable to storm surges of 12-foot +.

ExxonMobil in Baytown is huge, but it should fair better than some others.

Shell refinery in Deer Park, Tx is on the water at the South side of the ship channel. A 12-foot surge would be enough to cause several feet of water from the ship channel to flow into the plant to a 2'-3' depth. The first 12"-18" means very little. Even though the ground is flat, Pumps and electrical equipment are generally on raised pedestals 12" to 18" above grade. Water above 24" is a huge issue. If your MCC buildings, pump motors, electrical switchgear, etc... become partially submerged, then all of that has to be checked, parts replaced and computer controls rewired. It could shut a plant down for 6-months to a year easily.

BP in Texas City is just as vulnerable, but only if the levees fail. If the levees hold, BP will be fine.

What will really mess up the industry is that the tanking, pumping stations and shipping facilities are normally vulnerable to storm surge. Many are in low-lying coastal areas for access to shipping and barges. If the tanking and pumping operations go off-line... shut down the refineries.

If anyone thinks equipment grows on trees... think again. It can take 6-months to buy and get delivery of a 900hp electric motor. It can take a year to replace your switch gear cabinets or replace computerized process control equipment. Basically... if East and South Houston floods badly, don't expect the refineries just to pop back into production.


And, one more thing. My pop, an employee, said yesterday that large sections of ExxonMobil in Baton Rouge is STILL down and will be for up to a week more. I wonder how much more of the industry is not operating/operating far below capacity still in Gustav's wake.
100 mph is a nice round number, but it does seem a tad unlikely that a storm would consistently be at that value for two whole days (Just my two cents).
1439. LFMman
Quoting StormJunkie:


Dyno Gel


Can't have a Cat 3+ go into Oil Country, can we?

1440. chrisrw
Quoting leftovers:
anyone can read this blog dont give away intelligence secrets


If he can SEE what's going on, how is it secret??
Right now we need divine intervention or alot of foam put down on the water to save our oil.
Ike doesn't look all that bad actually. 100mph is no big deal. Don't do anything stupid and you'll be fine.
Quoting myway:


You need to look @ the wholesale gas price. Oil went down, wholesale gas (already refined) went up. You can have as much oil as you want, if your can not refine it, it is worthless.


And even if you can refine it, it's worthless if you can't ship it. In the Carolinas (western NC and upstate SC) we are experiencing a sharp spike in gasoline prices and spot gasoline shortages due to a major pipleline shutdown between the Gulf and upstate South Carolina. Prophylactic shutdown due to Ike.

JA
1444. IvansEx
Been away all day. So sad about this bad Ike.

Just realized our beach here in Pensacola is experiencing flooding (started at 8am with high tide).

Anyone interested in a video of the mess on P'cola Beach (our barrier island) can go to this link.

Also on that link (ireport.com) I saw this picture and loved the title"
"If it happens, it happens."
950.9mb
There's a difference between gasoline futures and gasoline spot/cash prices... GC gasoline spot prices were around $4.50 today.
over the course of yesterday, i became concerned (given that i live in the city that started mardi gras) that it might be heading towards a biloxi landfall. this morning, i was relieved that it had finally started pulling west, and now i see it turning more north again, and the way i figure it, if this goes in east of lake charlie, we get 12 hours of squalls, so i want an opinion, how likely is this to go in around lake charles or points east?
Just got home from classes. Really tired now, but relieved that I have started out with all A's in my classes.

Anyways, onto far more important things. Just praying that people on the Texas Gulf Coast have taken the mandatory evacuation orders seriously and have followed those orders. This looks like it could become a very devastating event, especially in regards to storm surge that could reach historic levels. Even sitting here in South Florida, Ike looks very ominous and intimidating. Please stay safe those that are in the path of this monster and head the evacuation orders. Want to send my best wishes to them.

Also, I have begun to share the Lambdi Fund link and information with numerous people at Broward College. Thank you for providing the link the other day Dr. Masters. Its startling to hear that nearly 95% did not even know the devastation that has occured in Haiti and how much they really need help and relief now. Just after one day, I have had 28 people make donations to the Lambdi Find and I have done so as well.

But, despite all this disaster and all this devastation, human resolve and strength has endured and shined bright during these dark times. That is what amazes me about the human race. Despite the human body being so fragile, the human spirit remains stronger than any material on earth; it cannot be shattered, it cannot be broken, it cannot die.
Quoting tropicallydepressed:
Ike doesn't look all that bad actually. 100mph is no big deal. Don't do anything stupid and you'll be fine.
But surge of 25' is bad. No doubt about that.
Quoting gulfbeachgal:
Thank you SellieBaby - appreciate the info!


Anytime. I just got my info from here (they're surprisingly current given their past history in such situations):

Pensacola News Journal
Quoting whipster:


Making up BS stories is not helpful.


Link

Link
1452. BlxMS
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Omg that is a huge windfield.


That is sick....This windfield really makes Katrina look loke a baby, doesn't it?
Link

This buoy has Ike just northeast of it
Quoting leftovers:
Right now we need divine intervention or alot of foam put down on the water to save our oil.


Or we could go with the PickensPlan...Alot of wind energy to be generated here! :-P
1455. CJ5
Quoting GulfScotsman:



stick to what you know...

which is very little despite your credentials


lol
lo, got to run, there is a heavy beating on my door and a bunch of black vans out front.... ¿~)

Seriously, the dry air has really kept Ike's wind speeds in check, but the size and amount of water he is moving around is unprecedented. Very dangerous situation. Top that off with the chance for intensification between now and landfall...

See y'all in a little while (I hope)...

Quick Links-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and more.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Kman hopefully your right and it goes to Beaumont and stays east of Galveston, if it does I have no respect for the NHC, they suck and no longer believe anything from here on out.


Thanks a heap. I wouldn't wish Ike on anyone. Beaumont is so hurricane weary that only about 50% evacuated. We have a large percentage of refineries here as well. Please don't wish this storm on us!
Well I am out for now. Will wait for a couple of hrs to see what the track is looking like.

BFN
1459. Rysh
Link

Can already see Ike in the long range loop out of New Orleans.
Er, I can't modify my comment so here's a better link.

Pensacola News Journal
I had planned on going out to okaloosa island to take pictures today but after seeing some video posted on cnn I think I will choose not to especially since i have small children..Has anyone been out there to see the island and what are the bays and bayous looking like?
Is the Rita bend starting?
Quoting BlxMS:


That is sick....This windfield really makes Katrina look loke a baby, doesn't it?


Let's not go quite that far. Really are close in size of TS wind coverage, but Katrina was stronger in the middle.

If this storm ends up going into LA (which is currently out of the "cone") and is reduced to a CAT 1 prior to landfall as some here are suggesting, we have SERIOUS flaws in our forecasting. The storm is less than 36 hours from landfall. Surely the NHC is pretty darn sure where this thing is going. It would be horrible for those to the east who have not been given notice to have a storm knocking on their door. Given the 4:00 update, there really is little change to the track.
1465. BlxMS
Quoting calcalla5678:
over the course of yesterday, i became concerned (given that i live in the city that started mardi gras) that it might be heading towards a biloxi landfall. this morning, i was relieved that it had finally started pulling west, and now i see it turning more north again, and the way i figure it, if this goes in east of lake charlie, we get 12 hours of squalls, so i want an opinion, how likely is this to go in around lake charles or points east?


I think we're pretty safe here in Biloxi, as I think are you in Mobile. That is where Mardi Gras started, you know?

www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mardi_Gras
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Or we could go with the PickensPlan...Alot of wind energy to be generated here! :-P


The wind part of the Pickens Plan is just fine, but the natural gas part really doesn't make sense... or even work. Wind increases the need for peaking power, which usually comes from natural gas, so you're *increasing* natural gas demand with windpower, not decreasing it. You're decreasing the need for coal and nuclear.

Also note that if by "a lot of wind energy to be generated here", you meant hurricanes, well, high winds are actually a *problem* for turbines.

Anyways, back to Ike!
in the last 3 hours Ike moved .6 degrees west and .2 degrees north...that is classic wnw by definition. During those same 3 hours, i saw multiple posts on here about how Ike is moving North. Apparently people are looking at satellite images improperly. Ike has moved wnw. Wobbles don't count. Ike is now due south of New orleans. I would expect the worst effects of Ike will start to diminish here in the next few hours
The NHC had this close on Monday at 11am with a TX/LA landfall.....and then they knee-jerked with the HWRF at the 5pm and went all the way south with the track, and some models even said Brownsville.

They have been moving up towards GFDL ever since--obviously they can't say, well this one has gotten away from us, but clearly it has.

Its going a North, somewhere between Beaumont and Lafayette, IMO.
Quoting SETXgirl:


Thanks a heap. I wouldn't wish Ike on anyone. Beaumont is so hurricane weary that only about 50% evacuated. We have a large percentage of refineries here as well. Please don't wish this storm on us!


My great-aunt is in Port Arthur, and last night was considering whether to evacuate or not (I presume she has; she is careful about such matters).

Of course I also have a great-aunt in Houston....
Quoting DestinJeff:
kman... a few here, myself included, have been on this idea of ike heading more north than expected since yesterday....

i agree with you, and follow your logic
I'm one of those few. TX/LA or W LA landfall.
Quoting SellieBaby:
I think to limit confusion with our blogger pal Ike, we should start refering to the hurricane Ike as Big McLargeHuge.

Just trying to give some smiles. Bless everyone in the storm's path.

Include indianrivguy with this comment. Both have been here giving good info for a week, since path Iguana. It was Ike and Ike, Jr...now Ike Big McLarge.
Pretty soon we're just going to be blogging among ourselves, those who are not in harm's way. Probably now...those boarding up, packing up, moving out...ain't blogging here. But if one is that can get out of harm's way...keep the message going.
Wind destroys structures.

Water destroys lives.

Seek higher ground.
Quoting NolaLevees:
in the last 3 hours Ike moved .6 degrees west and .2 degrees north...that is classic wnw by definition. During those same 3 hours, i saw multiple posts on here about how Ike is moving North. Apparently people are looking at satellite images improperly. Ike has moved wnw. Wobbles don't count. Ike is now due south of New orleans. I would expect the worst effects of Ike will start to diminish here in the next few hours


Really? Thats astounding considering the forecast....
Quoting kmanislander:
Well I am out for now. Will wait for a couple of hrs to see what the track is looking like.

BFN


See you later, Kman. Look forward later to your analysis, insight, and thoughts.
1475. ljk
think we are about to start getting a nice increase in intensity
sinking air on the far east of Ike has brought sun at last to Fort Myers . . . temp around 90
Quoting Rysh:
I can't quote for some reason, but yes the Tropical Forcast Points are WAY off the current track, this is why I have been predicting a SW Louisisna landfall.

Nobody seems interested in my forcast though.


I'm afraid you might be right. Mississippi and Alabama may be safe, but I don't think anyone on the Louisiana coast is.

I'm not sure if hurricane forecasters really appreciate the geography of the area. Louisiana sticks out into the Gulf which means it wouldn't take much of a shift for Ike to hit Louisiana. Watching the video of Ike in relation to the Gulf, if I were living in New Orleans I would out of town by this evening. Ike could easily be another Rita and turn to the north before it reaches Galveston.

Quoting myway:


You should be @ the hospital, not on a blog. ope all works out.



Don't be so quick to judge. There's nothing he can do at the hospital, and maybe he's on the blog at work. You don't have all teh facts. He said he's sorry, leave it at that.
Quoting NolaLevees:
in the last 3 hours Ike moved .6 degrees west and .2 degrees north...that is classic wnw by definition. During those same 3 hours, i saw multiple posts on here about how Ike is moving North. Apparently people are looking at satellite images improperly. Ike has moved wnw. Wobbles don't count. Ike is now due south of New orleans. I would expect the worst effects of Ike will start to diminish here in the next few hours


Wobbles only count if don't wobble back to their original position. Or, if the eye wobbles onto you like Ivan did to Orange Beach.
1480. myway
Quoting PensacolaNewbie:



Don't be so quick to judge. There's nothing he can do at the hospital, and maybe he's on the blog at work. You don't have all teh facts. He said he's sorry, leave it at that.

I do not care what he says on the blog. I just think family comes first.
Afternoon all - just an update from my sister and family in Mandeville, LA - Brother-in-law just called from the causeway over Lake Ponchartrain and he's getting splashed by waves! Water up very high and very high winds. Back to lurking (hoping for a little rain to ease our drought here in Austin, TX) Prayers to all in Ike's way...
Just back from some chores...

I see they adjusted the TFPs again. Pat,StormW,Kman,etc. - you think they're going to adjust them again before the next update at 2300?
Still nothing much happening right now in the Kingwood area, had a small shower about 30 minutes ago, first of the day. Winds are still weak. I'll update later.