WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Category 2 Hurricane Jova hits Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:43 PM GMT on October 12, 2011

Hurricane Jova slowly moved ashore over Mexico's Pacific coast at 10 pm PDT last night as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Jova was the strongest hurricane to hit Mexico's Pacific coast since Hurricane Jimena hit Baja as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds in 2009. Jova was a small storm at landfall, with hurricane-force winds that extended outwards only 15 miles from the center. Thus, only a relatively small stretch of coast saw Jova's most dangerous winds and storm surge. A much greater concern are Jova's rains. Satellite rainfall estimates indicate that Jova had already dumped up to six inches of rain along the coast as of 2 am EDT this morning. Jova is moving very slowly and is expected to stall out over the coast on Thursday, which will lead to extremely heavy rains over the coastal mountains of Mexico. These rains are likely to accumulate to over fifteen inches in some spots, and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are likely in the region of Mexico between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta over the next three days. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has weakened drastically since landfall, with the eye no longer apparent and much less vigorous heavy thunderstorm activity. Jova will likely weaken to a tropical storm later today.

This year's Eastern Pacific hurricane season has been below average for number of named storms, which is typical for a La Niña year. However, an unusual number of the named storms have become hurricanes and intense hurricanes--the reverse of the situation in the Atlantic. So far in 2011, there have been 10 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 108 in the Eastern Pacific. An average year should have had 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 125 by October 12. On average, the Eastern Pacific sees just two more named storms and one hurricane after October 11.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Jova taken at 3:55 pm EDT October 11, 2011. At the time, Jova was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links to follow Jova
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Barra de Navidad, just north-west of Manzanillo, and received a direct hit from Jova's eye last night. His final report; "Found a small building north of La Manzanilla directly in path of Hurricane Jova's eye. No power, only iPhone battery and still cell service for now. We will get a direct hit here but no lights to see anything to film. Waves are large and crashing on building. Only going to get worse !! Sorry no photos yet, today was actually nice all day and right at dark wind picked up and knocked out power."

Puerto Vallarta webcam

Tropical Storm Irwin not expected to threaten Mexico
Tropical Storm Irwin, which is headed eastwards towards the same stretch of Mexican coast Jova is affecting, is expected to dissipate before reaching the coast. It is unlikely Irwin will bring significant rains to Mexico.

Quiet in the Atlantic
Many of the computer models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or extreme southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could potentially come from Tropical Depression 12-E, which formed in the Eastern Pacific this morning, just offshore of the Mexico/Guatemala border. TD 12-E is expected to move inland over Southeast Mexico and Guatemala over the next few days, bringing very heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. M and good morning all.. gonna be a slow day....
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/10/12/tropi cal-depression-mexico-jova.html
You will need to get rid of the space in tropic cal to link
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update.
Last week we had 30 degrees below normal in SoCal... today we have this:

Statement as of 2:02 AM PDT on October 12, 2011

... Very warm temperatures on the coast today and Thursday...

Coastal temperatures are expected to climb into the 90s today
and Thursday due to offshore flow and an usually strong upper level
high pressure centered over the coast. Inland locations are forecast
to be near or over 100 degrees... while coastal locations will be in
90s. Could be in the mid to upper 80s for a brief period.
Temperatures in some locations of southwest California
coastal... inland valleys and mountains could reach or approach
record levels. These forecast temperatures are 20 degrees above
normal.
Quoting JNCali:
Last week we had 30 degrees below normal in SoCal... today we have this:

Statement as of 2:02 AM PDT on October 12, 2011

... Very warm temperatures on the coast today and Thursday...

Coastal temperatures are expected to climb into the 90s today
and Thursday due to offshore flow and an usually strong upper level
high pressure centered over the coast. Inland locations are forecast
to be near or over 100 degrees... while coastal locations will be in
90s. Could be in the mid to upper 80s for a brief period.
Temperatures in some locations of southwest California
coastal... inland valleys and mountains could reach or approach
record levels. These forecast temperatures are 20 degrees above
normal.
It is hot here in South Central Texas too, in the 90s today and near 90 Thursday behind a weak front, normally by now it has cooled off here but our first decent front of the year is suppose to hit next week finally. Sorry but I am sick of 90s and 100s and I need a break, LOL
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is hot here in South Central Texas too, in the 90s today and near 90 Thursday behind a weak front, normally by now it has cooled off here but our first decent front of the year is suppose to hit next week finally. Sorry but I am sick of 90s and 100s and I need a break, LOL


Here's hoping you get a break from the heat really soon!

Just had a little storm pass through w/ a few flashes and rumbles. Only 66 degrees now in Greenville, NC.
From last blog...

Man, that "un-named" storm (was it 93L?) that went through N. FL last weekend really had some high winds with it. A friend of mine who lives in Jacksonville, FL sent me some pictures of a large tree that fell on his roof. Here's one of those...

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is hot here in South Central Texas too, in the 90s today and near 90 Thursday behind a weak front, normally by now it has cooled off here but our first decent front of the year is suppose to hit next week finally. Sorry but I am sick of 90s and 100s and I need a break, LOL



Yeah, I feel you. We've at least dropped to upper 80s in my area of Florida, but its been about 5 straight months of 90+ degree weather with high humidity.


Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is hot here in South Central Texas too, in the 90s today and near 90 Thursday behind a weak front, normally by now it has cooled off here but our first decent front of the year is suppose to hit next week finally. Sorry but I am sick of 90s and 100s and I need a break, LOL

How can folks in TX afford the electricity to keep cool? or is everyone just used to it?
NAM model insists developing a Cyclone in the Caribbean.
Quoting JNCali:

How can folks in TX afford the electricity to keep cool? or is everyone just used to it?


It wasn't easy paying about $300 per month for four months this summer for electricity...
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
NAM model insists developing a Cyclone in the Caribbean.


Yep, 2nd run today with a low in the Western Caribbean in 3 days.

We don't have long to wait to see if it happens.

If a low forms, I'm not sure what direction it might go. I know Florida is supposed to be dry for the next
4+ days.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yep, 2nd run today with a low in the Western Caribbean in 3 days.

We don't have long to wait to see if it happens.

If a low forms, I'm not sure what direction it might go. I know Florida is supposed to be dry for the next
4+ days.


Link please, I can never figure out what NAM to click on, on Allan Huffmans site. T.I.A
Quoting rb5kcid:


It wasn't easy paying about $300 per month for four months this summer for electricity...


I know people that live in South Central Texas (Boerne Texas) that don't use air conditioning. When I was at their house I was about to melt. It was 90 degrees in their house at 9 pm at night.
They were actually used to it and did fine with just fans.
But I was miserable (even though the humidity was very low compared to what I'm use to during the summer in Fl.)
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Link please, I can never figure out what NAM to click on, on Allan Huffmans site. T.I.A


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller? prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL GUIDANCE&p age=MODEL GUIDANCE

Click on model links to get to the model page.
Quoting rb5kcid:


It wasn't easy paying about $300 per month for four months this summer for electricity...


Average Billing helps a lot. keeps it down to about $150 / month. But the guy across the street, with an inefficient 2 story loft house, sold because he could not afford electricity at $500+/summer month!
GOM appears closed now. Plus, SST down a good 8 or 9 degrees. Barely hanging on to 80 degree threshold. Numerous trough expected to move in.

All and all, what a bust of a season.
any analysis of the newly-developed tropical depression 12-E, off the Pacific coast of Chiapas? It is already causing significant problems this morning in Chiapas and even worse in Guatemala.
Quoting mayanwhitewater:
any analysis of the newly-developed tropical depression 12-E, off the Pacific coast of Chiapas? It is already causing significant problems this morning in Chiapas and even worse in Guatemala.
could walk faster than that depression
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller? prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL GUIDANCE&p age=MODEL GUIDANCE

Click on model links to get to the model page.



or here to see the animation directly:

Link



Quoting WeatherfanPR:



or here to see the animation directly:

Link





Thank you very much. That made it much easier.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



or here to see the animation directly:

Link





That's almost scary (if it were to develop as NAM suggests). It reminds me of Wilma.
What does anybody think about this?

The global model guidance cannot agree on how this will happen with the GFS model forecasting a broad area of low pressure to develop very close to the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next two to three days. The GFS model forecasts that this low pressure system will meander around the Bay of Campeche and the far western Caribbean this weekend into much of next week and it does hint at it becoming a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm late Saturday or during Sunday and keeps it quite weak over the Yucatan Peninsula throughout next week before it is shoved into the Bay of Campeche late next week where it develops into a full-fledged tropical storm and is pulled northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico next Sunday (October 23) as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane bringing tropical storm and hurricane conditions from Houston to New Orleans and the Mississippi coast. From there, this storm is pulled northeastward across the eastern United States as a strong extra-tropical storm between October 24 and October 27 and would bring heavy rain and strong winds from the southeastern United States to New England.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
What does anybody think about this?

The global model guidance cannot agree on how this will happen with the GFS model forecasting a broad area of low pressure to develop very close to the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next two to three days. The GFS model forecasts that this low pressure system will meander around the Bay of Campeche and the far western Caribbean this weekend into much of next week and it does hint at it becoming a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm late Saturday or during Sunday and keeps it quite weak over the Yucatan Peninsula throughout next week before it is shoved into the Bay of Campeche late next week where it develops into a full-fledged tropical storm and is pulled northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico next Sunday (October 23) as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane bringing tropical storm and hurricane conditions from Houston to New Orleans and the Mississippi coast. From there, this storm is pulled northeastward across the eastern United States as a strong extra-tropical storm between October 24 and October 27 and would bring heavy rain and strong winds from the southeastern United States to New England.


It looks very interesting but there have been model predictions for a while and they've all come to nothing for the GOM. Is this one somehow more valid? I ask that not to be rude, I truly don't know how to judge the models.
Dr Masters, will you be doing a blog on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology 2011/12 Tropical outlook to be released 17th October.

Here is a bit of info for anyone interested in Australian Tropics, La Nina and El Nino.

Goodnight all.
thanks for the storm model link.

for those interested in river levels in Guatemala (and Central America), you can view the thrice-daily report from the Guatemalan weather service here: http://www.insivumeh.gob.gt/hidrologia/nivelesrios .pdf

These and other flow/level gages are google-mapped, you can find the links at http://mayanwhitewater.com/river_top.html
a new pouch has come off the african coast. atthough conditions are very hostle to any form of tropical development there, the area of convection is below 10N and propgating west, with some form of cyclonic turning. This is the same area where the pouch that formed into Tomas origainated. this is not to say that history will repeat itself. but only an observation,
Nothing showing up in the next 7 days on the 12Z GFS. The NAM is worthless. The only models i look at are the GFS and EURO for cyclogenesis.
Fantasyland at 300hrs :)

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I know people that live in South Central Texas (Boerne Texas) that don't use air conditioning. When I was at their house I was about to melt. It was 90 degrees in their house at 9 pm at night.
They were actually used to it and did fine with just fans.
But I was miserable (even though the humidity was very low compared to what I'm use to during the summer in Fl.)


I grew up a couple miles outside of Boerne and the house I lived in didn't have A/C until I was about 17-18. And even then, it didn't get turned on unless it was over about 105 outside. When you grow up in it, you're sort of used to it. But it's darn easy to get spoiled by full-time AC, especially being older now.
How about this is just 84 hours?


Quoting DavidHOUTX:
What does anybody think about this?

The global model guidance cannot agree on how this will happen with the GFS model forecasting a broad area of low pressure to develop very close to the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next two to three days. The GFS model forecasts that this low pressure system will meander around the Bay of Campeche and the far western Caribbean this weekend into much of next week and it does hint at it becoming a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm late Saturday or during Sunday and keeps it quite weak over the Yucatan Peninsula throughout next week before it is shoved into the Bay of Campeche late next week where it develops into a full-fledged tropical storm and is pulled northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico next Sunday (October 23) as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane bringing tropical storm and hurricane conditions from Houston to New Orleans and the Mississippi coast. From there, this storm is pulled northeastward across the eastern United States as a strong extra-tropical storm between October 24 and October 27 and would bring heavy rain and strong winds from the southeastern United States to New England.
That was yesterday's 18z GFS model.

The latest GFS models have backed away from a BOC/WGoMEX/LA storm and moved more towards a more typical WCarrib/Cuba/Bahamas scenario..although at the very end of the period the latest 12z model does hint of  redevelopment in the BOC.

Considering how dry the NW Gulf has been, and the climatology at this time, I'm not sold on any storm coming any further west of the Panhandle, or even the west FL coast west of the Big Bend....but, we did have Juan and Jerry, so you can never tell.

By the time late October rolls on, the westerlies are so far pronounced in the Northern GOM that any storm that even attempts to develop would get shunted NE to E pretty quickly.  Most storms in the BOC either get shunted W to WSW into Mex/CentAM or NE/ENE into Cuba/Florida.

I wouldn't mind that storm getting into TX, though, if only to relieve the drought.


Anthony
Now let's see if the EURO backs off. This season might be about to end. The Pacific could possibly steal all the thunder from this MJO pulse.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
What does anybody think about this?

The global model guidance cannot agree on how this will happen with the GFS model forecasting a broad area of low pressure to develop very close to the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next two to three days. The GFS model forecasts that this low pressure system will meander around the Bay of Campeche and the far western Caribbean this weekend into much of next week and it does hint at it becoming a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm late Saturday or during Sunday and keeps it quite weak over the Yucatan Peninsula throughout next week before it is shoved into the Bay of Campeche late next week where it develops into a full-fledged tropical storm and is pulled northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico next Sunday (October 23) as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane bringing tropical storm and hurricane conditions from Houston to New Orleans and the Mississippi coast. From there, this storm is pulled northeastward across the eastern United States as a strong extra-tropical storm between October 24 and October 27 and would bring heavy rain and strong winds from the southeastern United States to New England.
I think I like this scenario. It keeps the storm away from the Keys and maybe I can still go on my Ft. Jefferson trip on the 20th. I will keep this entire quote in my head, hoping it happens.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
How about this is just 84 hours?


Where is the landfall?
Quoting RussianWinter:

Where is the landfall?


84 hours is as far as that model goes out. If I were to assume, I would guess the Yucatan and then ?
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
What does anybody think about this?

The global model guidance cannot agree on how this will happen with the GFS model forecasting a broad area of low pressure to develop very close to the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next two to three days. The GFS model forecasts that this low pressure system will meander around the Bay of Campeche and the far western Caribbean this weekend into much of next week and it does hint at it becoming a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm late Saturday or during Sunday and keeps it quite weak over the Yucatan Peninsula throughout next week before it is shoved into the Bay of Campeche late next week where it develops into a full-fledged tropical storm and is pulled northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico next Sunday (October 23) as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane bringing tropical storm and hurricane conditions from Houston to New Orleans and the Mississippi coast. From there, this storm is pulled northeastward across the eastern United States as a strong extra-tropical storm between October 24 and October 27 and would bring heavy rain and strong winds from the southeastern United States to New England.
Is this forecast from the Crown weather site?
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, October 12th, with Video
Do you see any future possible developement in the BOC?

Quoting scott39:
Is this forecast from the Crown weather site?
Nope, not a forecast...simply a description of that particular model's scenario.

Most forecasts I've seen have no indication of a TS or hurricane getting into LA by next week.


Anthony
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, October 12th, with Video


Nice update.

Thanks
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is hot here in South Central Texas too, in the 90s today and near 90 Thursday behind a weak front, normally by now it has cooled off here but our first decent front of the year is suppose to hit next week finally. Sorry but I am sick of 90s and 100s and I need a break, LOL



I live in San Antonio but left to come up here to the northeast after Irene hit. I was already sick of those 100's. Will probably head home in a couple of weeks and am looking forward to some cool rainy weather in the Republic this fall. Ojala.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



or here to see the animation directly:

Link





By the look of that high pressure over the SE USA, that storm were it to verify is going to Honduras,Mexico or poss Texas...IMO
Someone help me here please?
Does the image of North Atlantic SS Temperatures on the Tropical page look very different today than it did yesterday or the day before?
I remember being surprised by the amount of reds on the previous image, and when I visited today, it
seemed very different. I may well be imagining it, though, thus my question.
Is there a way to look at yesterday's image?
Thanks, all you weather fiends!
Quoting KipHansen:
Someone help me here please?
Does the image of North Atlantic SS Temperatures on the Tropical page look very different today than it did yesterday or the day before?
I remember being surprised by the amount of reds on the previous image, and when I visited today, it
seemed very different. I may well be imagining it, though, thus my question.
Is there a way to look at yesterday's image?
Thanks, all you weather fiends!


They probably just changed the color wheel to make it easier to show colder temps as they occur. They do this every year about this time.
Just added a new Winter Weather Section!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TampaSpin/show.h tml
Quoting Dr. Masters' blog today: "This year's Eastern Pacific hurricane season has been below average for number of named storms, which is typical for a La Niña year. However, an unusual number of the named storms have become hurricanes and intense hurricanes--the reverse of the situation in the Atlantic."

I'd love to have had an explanation for why this was so. Was the lack of instability over the Atlantic not present over the EPAC? If so, why wasn't it?

TIA
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is hot here in South Central Texas too, in the 90s today and near 90 Thursday behind a weak front, normally by now it has cooled off here but our first decent front of the year is suppose to hit next week finally. Sorry but I am sick of 90s and 100s and I need a break, LOL
Austin here and I was starting to feel a bit nutty from all the heat and sunshine. Bleh. The cloudy days we've had lately have definitely helped my sanity.

Now we wait for Halloween to see if winter is going to come early or not. It seems like Halloween is our gauge on if it's going to be cool and wet or warm and dry.
looking in to the weekend and next week looks like florida especially south florida is going to get drenched again looks like a tropical system comeing in our direction
Is there any chance that Jova could pull some moisture up over southern Texas?
Quoting mcgraham:
Is there any chance that Jova could pull some moisture up over southern Texas?
Si.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Just the South American Low that is usually in that area. Nothing there YET!
It sure would be nice if those of you who post graphics would provide some explanation of what we are looking at. Some of us are not meteorologists.
WOW, in 6 hrs this blog has only had 60 comments???

I do not believe I have never seen it this slow.

Hello Dr Jeff and all who come here.
Happy Wednesday to you all.

Does anything think there will still besomething in the Caribbean later this week???

I mean we started that 10-15 day thing again this year and now over a month and not much showing.

Did the MJO every come this far in our area?

Quoting Wunderwood:
It sure would be nice if those of you who post graphics would provide some explanation of what we are looking at. Some of us are not meteorologists.


I've been saying that for 6 years but it gets ignored. One of the reasons when I want real weather info I go to another blog where I will get some answers.

Quoting Wunderwood:
It sure would be nice if those of you who post graphics would provide some explanation of what we are looking at. Some of us are not meteorologists.


The graphics that Stormpetrol posted are graphics that show Circulation at the surface. Hope this helps and yes you are correct. I too often just post pics without any thing behind it ........SORRY!
Quoting seflagamma:


I've been saying that for 6 years but it gets ignored. One of the reasons when I want real weather info I go to another blog where I will get some answers.




YA, YA, YA, LOL.....dumbies like me get in less trouble if we just post a pic without any explantion......LOL....JUST SAYN
Quoting Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I feel you. We've at least dropped to upper 80s in my area of Florida, but its been about 5 straight months of 90+ degree weather with high humidity.


You can keep the humidity, I guess that is why Floridians always want rain because it is so humid there. We dont have that kind of humidity here even when we dont have a drought going on. One rain here the last 112 days which did equal 2 inches, now 9 inches for the year. It poured here for about 1 hour then cleared up. It was suppose to rain here 2 or 3 days but I did get a good rain in that 1 hour, now it looks to be dry here again for awhile. The rain systems will probably get as far south as Dallas or Waco and leave us high and dry, that is the way it was last year, rains always missed us to the north. That is the La Nina patterns for Texas, most rains stay in North Texas and East Texas because the systems are too far north for South Central Texas to get rains.
Zzzz....
Quoting Seflhurricane:
looking in to the weekend and next week looks like florida especially south florida is going to get drenched again looks like a tropical system comeing in our direction
dry season is coming so any rain now is welcome i guess
Quoting Wunderwood:
It sure would be nice if those of you who post graphics would provide some explanation of what we are looking at. Some of us are not meteorologists.


Neither are some of the people who post the graphics...
Talking about a slow blog - somebody said this morning there were only three people on the blog and each of them had the others on ignore. Made me laugh.
hey guys whats up whats new
watching the vis. seems like the td is moving alittle faster than forecast. if it continues should be over the boc in a day
We havnt had a gulf hurricane this year.
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Talking about a slow blog - somebody said this morning there were only three people on the blog and each of them had the others on ignore. Made me laugh.


lol...
Looks like TD#12E might emerge into the GOH fairly intact with the potential to become a menace in the NW caribbean, jmo.
hey stormpetrol do you know what is going through my mind right now
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Talking about a slow blog - somebody said this morning there were only three people on the blog and each of them had the others on ignore. Made me laugh.

LOL.
Good afternoon all.

Its funny how I see somebody saying the NAM is always wrong when, it was performed better than most models this season, particularly close to home development.
It's 102 where I am in San Diego...thank GOD for air conditioning. Let's hope there are no power outages today.
Quoting seflagamma:
WOW, in 6 hrs this blog has only had 60 comments???

I do not believe I have never seen it this slow.

Hello Dr Jeff and all who come here.
Happy Wednesday to you all.

Does anything think there will still besomething in the Caribbean later this week???

I mean we started that 10-15 day thing again this year and now over a month and not much showing.

Did the MJO every come this far in our area?


Development, if any, should occur this weekend into early next week. I'd take "if any" as loose, especially since there is a really good chance we see something develop in the western Caribbean.
12-e not even close to the plots.Looks like BOC on thursday...
Afternoon all.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Dr Masters, will you be doing a blog on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology 2011/12 Tropical outlook to be released 17th October.

Here is a bit of info for anyone interested in Australian Tropics, La Nina and El Nino.

Goodnight all.
This actually sounds like an interesting proposition. The Southern Hemisphere's season is set to begin next month, so this would be like our April outlooks.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormpetrol do you know what is going through my mind right now


Don't know, long time no see , hows things with you?
Good afternoon all!
Wow... it is pretty slow in here today...

I'm not sticking around long, but I do want to say that whatever cool weather we had last week is long gone... back to low 90s by day here. Only indicator of seasonal change is night time temps dipping below 75.

It'll be interesting to see if we get some cyclogenesis this weekend. Between the 14-21 is a good period for a last major to form, especially in the CAR. Maybe that pouch that someone was talking about earlier will add some spice towards the end of that period, too.
...JOVA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES...
2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 12
Location: 21.4°N 104.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
...IRWIN MOVING FASTER TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
8:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 12
Location: 16.0°N 110.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: ENE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Good afternoon to all also, anyone getting any decent weather, it is very warm and humid here, it kind of sucks! LOL, maybe I should move to the mountains? :)
...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THAT IRWIN IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 12
Location: 16.9°N 109.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: ENE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb


...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NOW INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...
2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 12
Location: 16.3°N 94.3°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
All those tropical systems in the Pacific, too bad that couldnt give some moisture to Texas, very seldom does moisture make it this far thru Mexico.
Not surprised it's a slow day here with all the yelling that's been going on with 93L.
If 12E got into the BOC, where would it go?
Quoting ClaySFL:
Not surprised it's a slow day here with all the yelling that's been going on with 93L.


Have they named it yet? I haven't been able to sleep until the final verdict comes out. I guess the entire NHC has their whole staff working on it.
Quoting Txrainstorm:


lol...
LOL, that is Funny. Not much to say here, some parts of Texas have improved as far as the drought goes but not my area. Problem is we are getting into the dry part of the year again around here.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If 12E got into the BOC, where would it go?
I would say northeast?
Could we see TD 18 or 19 (correct me if I'm wrong) from TD 12-E in the BOC?
Quoting WoodyFL:


Have they named it yet? I haven't been able to sleep until the final verdict comes out. I guess the entire NHC has their whole staff working on it.


Nope. If they do rename it, it won't be until the spring.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Could we see TD 18 or 19 (correct me if I'm wrong) from TD 12-E in the BOC?

Not sure about the Bay of Campeche, but some of its energy could contribute to a low pressure area developing in the western Caribbean.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not sure about the Bay of Campeche, but some of its energy could contribute to a low pressure area developing in the western Caribbean.


Ok thanks.
Quoting WoodyFL:


Have they named it yet? I haven't been able to sleep until the final verdict comes out. I guess the entire NHC has their whole staff working on it.

They'll probably name it in post-season, labeled as "Unnamed tropical storm". However, they won't review all the seasons storms until the end of the season at the earliest.
Good afternoon, everyone!
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
You can keep the humidity, I guess that is why Floridians always want rain because it is so humid there. We dont have that kind of humidity here even when we dont have a drought going on. One rain here the last 112 days which did equal 2 inches, now 9 inches for the year. It poured here for about 1 hour then cleared up. It was suppose to rain here 2 or 3 days but I did get a good rain in that 1 hour, now it looks to be dry here again for awhile. The rain systems will probably get as far south as Dallas or Waco and leave us high and dry, that is the way it was last year, rains always missed us to the north. That is the La Nina patterns for Texas, most rains stay in North Texas and East Texas because the systems are too far north for South Central Texas to get rains.


I was in Austin for a wedding this last weekend. The ceremony was at the House on the Hill. Minutes after the ceremony was finished, the sky fell out and it rained hard for 30 or so minutes. Pretty funny to see a bunch of well dressed folks playing around in the rain like children. Good times.
Quoting wn1995:
Good afternoon, everyone!

Hello, and welcome to Dr. Masters' blog comments section...How may we help you?

Today's special is a nice, healthy serving of silence.
TX's weekend rain finally arrived in C IL today, we needed it, probably will kill a lot of the fall colors though. Hope StL clears out so Carp can mow down the BrewCrew tonite!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hello, and welcome to Dr. Masters' blog comments section...How may we help you?

Today's special is a nice, healthy serving of silence.


Haha its certainly quiet in here. Guess its to be expected with the tropics, at least Atlantic wise, are quiet.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hello, and welcome to Dr. Masters' blog comments section...How may we help you?

Today's special is a nice, healthy serving of silence.

LOL
Hello, anybody still here... ;-)

as of now 4 are confirme dead from jova and damage is still unknown
Uh oh in the long range pattern I'm looking at the northeast and Mid-Atlantic should start to see blast of colder air from here on out.Snow should not be coming to my area any time soon.(Maybe in December is when I expect even the smallest trace of snow)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL
That pattern that the tropics are currently in, resemble last years at this time..jmo..:)
First FEMA trailer arrived in Bastrop Tx. today.
Thanks everyone who acknowledged my earlier comments.

wow still a really slow blog this afternoon!!!
Was re-reading some of the blog comments from Hurricane Katrina in 2005 since its been so quiet.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Was re-reading some of the blog comments from Hurricane Katrina in 2005 since its been so quiet.


I might have to go do that. Would be interesting to see what people were saying.
Article on the potential for a major arctic blast next week

Yeah, the tropics are quiet, but this is certainly interesting. Models are really pushing the cold air South with this next major storm system. The 12Z GFS backed off on it but was showing it, but wow, the 12Z EURO brings freezing temps to areas that just shouldn't be seeing them this time of year.

India launches weather satellite

Sapa-dpa | 12 October, 2011 09:40

An Indian rocket carrying a weather satellite developed in collaboration with France has been successfully launched from the southern state of Andhra Pradesh.

The 1,000-kilogram Megha-Tropiques is a tropical weather monitoring satellite.

It is designed to collect data on the water cycle in the tropical atmosphere and will help climate change research and weather predictions including the seasonal monsoon rains.

From:
http://www.timeslive.co.za/scitech/2011/10/12/ind ia-launches-weather-satellite

More details on BBC site, but I was unable to copy their text:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-152707 90

Here is the website for the actual project, which gives details on the data products :

http://meghatropiques.ipsl.polytechnique.fr/
Quoting wn1995:
Article on the potential for a major arctic blast next week

Yeah, the tropics are quiet, but this is certainly interesting. Models are really pushing the cold air South with this next major storm system. The 12Z GFS backed off on it but was showing it, but wow, the 12Z EURO brings freezing temps to areas that just shouldn't be seeing them this time of year.


Have a link? I would love to see if this cold air will reach the Houston area!!!!
Quoting wn1995:
Article on the potential for a major arctic blast next week

Yeah, the tropics are quiet, but this is certainly interesting. Models are really pushing the cold air South with this next major storm system. The 12Z GFS backed off on it but was showing it, but wow, the 12Z EURO brings freezing temps to areas that just shouldn't be seeing them this time of year.


Sorry about that! I should have clarified... do you have a model link for this?
Quoting melwerle:
It's 102 where I am in San Diego...thank GOD for air conditioning. Let's hope there are no power outages today.
Hey another San Diegan on here, cool

I'm from San Diego too, got in the 90s today, which is just about as hot as it's been all year since we had such a cool summer.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hey another San Diegan on here, cool

I'm from San Diego too, got in the 90s today, which is just about as hot as it's been all year since we had such a cool summer.


Lucky you!! We have had the hottest and driest summer here in Houston!! We are actually on pace to have the hottest year ever here in Houston (by a far), which is kind of crazy considering we had some of the coldest air ever recorded in February! Just goes to show how hot it was this summer here..
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Sorry about that! I should have clarified... do you have a model link for this?


Unfortunately, I don't. I use the Accuweather PRO models, and you have to pay for them.

This is the best free link that i know of to look at models:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

Hope I helped!
so anybody got predictions for 2012 season yet or what?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
so anybody got predictions for 2012 season yet or what?


Lol slow down bro
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol slow down bro
Seriously.

wunderweatherman, you are asking ridiculous questions. They aren't impossible, there just a little bit absurd.

I'm not trying to discourage your posting, but try and be a little bit more realistic with your questions. For example, the other day ago you were asking everyone what they thought Jova's minimum pressure would be at landfall a solid two days before landfall. Nobody can accurately answer that question.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Seriously.

wunderweatherman, you are asking ridiculous questions. They aren't impossible, there just a little bit absurd.

I'm not trying to discourage your posting, but try and be a little bit more realistic with your questions. For example, the other day ago you were asking everyone what they thought Jova's minimum pressure would be at landfall a solid two days before landfall. Nobody can accurately answer that question.
yeah but it gets boring sometimes even when a hurricane hits land (when jova made landfall, barely anybody was on the blog) so i just ask questions for the fun of it
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol slow down bro


Haha true that.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
yeah but it gets boring sometimes even when a hurricane hits land (when jova made landfall, barely anybody was on the blog) so i just ask questions for the fun of it
alright, well as long as you understand you are asking semi-ridiculous questions then that's fine lol
Quoting TomTaylor:
alright, well as long as you understand you are asking semi-ridiculous questions then that's fine lol
haha ok then, do you think el nino will form anytime soon?
Well now kida slow so...

Side affect of the whatever storm that hit Fl a few days ago. We had been catching 5 gallons of shrimp in 20-60 minutes.

After all that rain "fresh water" all the shrimp have left the river three weeks early!

Glad I got my limit several days before and have a good freezer.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Was re-reading some of the blog comments from Hurricane Katrina in 2005 since its been so quiet.
That's a great idea.
It's something I've recommended for years.
The blog was sort of feeling it's way in it's beginning days but you get the general idea of the blog and a definite idea of the storm. The NWS statements are something else. The blog part has been heavily edited. Let me know if the whole drama involving some user supposedly stuck in the French Quarter survived the director's cut.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha ok then, do you think el nino will form anytime soon?


We'll find out by the spring. That's all I can say.

If it doesn't, history dictates that it should develop in 2013. Then again, the period from 1998-2001 went entirely without seeing El Nino emerge.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha ok then, do you think el nino will form anytime soon?


Lol. I don't think it is going to be real soon.
well 09 was the last time we had one but for the 2nd year we are going into la nina moderate phase so only time i see el nino forming is late 2012/ early 2013 OR MAYBE even later....
Are there news reports out of Mexico yet about damage and fatalities from Hurricane Jova yet?
Low in the Caribbean 6 days out..
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Are there news reports out of Mexico yet about damage and fatalities from Hurricane Jova yet?

4 fatalities, I believe.
127. Autistic


Glad to see the shrimp still going strong. I am driving back to st. Aug. next weekend to refill my freezer with the sweet fresh water shrimp, thanx to the st. johns. Redneck riviera here I come.....





Surprisingly, TD#12E has caused 13 deaths.
SILENCE o wait it already is:)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

4 fatalities, I believe.


Thanks tropicalanalystwx13. That seems low but we'll see what the news reveals in coming days.

I'm not surprised by the fatalities from the TD. Very poor people and hilly countryside in that area. Flash floods and landslides galore if TD 12E is a wet system.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

4 fatalities, I believe.


Yeah, thats what I last heard. Wouldn't be surprised if the count goes up a good bit though. I hope not, but it would be hard to only have 4 fatalities with a storm like that.
Quoting wn1995:
Article on the potential for a major arctic blast next week

Yeah, the tropics are quiet, but this is certainly interesting. Models are really pushing the cold air South with this next major storm system. The 12Z GFS backed off on it but was showing it, but wow, the 12Z EURO brings freezing temps to areas that just shouldn't be seeing them this time of year.

That'd be about on time for us here in South Florida if it makes it this far; our first real cold front historically makes its way to us sometime during the last ten days of October. FWIW, the 10-day forecast for Atlanta shows low in the low 40s by the end of next week; Cincinnati shows a low in the 30s; and International Falls down into the 20s.

It's that time of year, I suppose...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Surprisingly, TD#12E has caused 13 deaths.


That actually comes as no surprise to me that TD12E would cause more deaths than Jova. See Tropical Depression Eleven-E last year, which became Hermine in the Atlantic.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Surprisingly, TD#12E has caused 13 deaths.


They can be insane rainfall producers.
Quoting wn1995:


They can be insane rainfall producers.


I read somewhere that weaker tropical cyclones generally produce higher rainfall. I am not sure why this is the case, but it could have something to do with the fact the deepest convection is typically confined to a banding type pattern in those systems, rather than in the heart of a mature CDO/eyewall as is the case in mature hurricanes.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I read somewhere that weaker tropical cyclones generally produce higher rainfall. I am not sure why this is the case, but it could have something to do with the fact the deepest convection is typically confined to a banding type pattern in those systems, rather than in the heart of a mature CDO/eyewall as is the case in mature hurricanes.

Sounds about right.

I doubt we have either of the systems at this point...



I don't think that there has ever been an Atlantic hurricane season in which we saw more than 15 tropical storms develop, yet only 5 of those tropical storms be able to intensify into hurricanes. This implies that although a bunch of names got check-marked, this season turns out to be a pretty much average one. In my opinion, this is likely due to the lack of instability that was noted throughout the basin for most of the season.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think that there has ever been an Atlantic hurricane season in which we saw more than 15 tropical storms develop, yet only 5 of those tropical storms be able to intensify into hurricanes. This implies that although a bunch of names got check-marked, this season turns out to be a pretty much average one. In my opinion, this is likely due to the lack of instability that was noted throughout the basin for most of the season.

Yeah..
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Statistics:

Total/Atlantic: 107 (Above Average)

Total/Eastern Pacific: 105 (Average)

Highest contributing storm/Atlantic: 24.8 - Katia

Highest contributing storm/Eastern Pacific: Hilary - 31.3

Lowest contributing storm/Atlantic: Franklin - 0.405

Lowest contributing storm/Eastern Pacific: Calvin - 2.43
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Statistics:

Total/Atlantic: 107 (Above Average)

Total/Eastern Pacific: 105 (Average)

Highest contributing storm/Atlantic: 24.8 - Katia

Highest contributing storm/Eastern Pacific: Hilary - 31.3

Lowest contributing storm/Atlantic: Franklin - 0.405

Lowest contributing storm/Eastern Pacific: Calvin - 2.43
kinda funny how the East Pacifc pretty far below average in terms of named storms but above average in hurricanes, meanwhile the Atlantic was above average in named storms but below average in the number of hurricanes (for the amount of storms we've had).
I had to drive through some of Merritt Island today and didn't see any real damage or serious flooding from 93L.
One construction area had a pond in front of it, but that was about all I saw from the system.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sounds about right.

I doubt we have either of the systems at this point...



good news for mexico
oh yeah the 2011 atlantic has been well not a horrible season but a bad season for folks on the east coast mexico and the islands.. it could have panned out much worse but thanks to the record low vertical instability we didnt get a lot of hurricanes for a weak la nina season. if next year wont be el nino and vertical instability is average, i just dont wanna find out plus if the troughing off the east coast since 2009 vanishes that would be bad...
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha ok then, do you think el nino will form anytime soon?
Not anytime soon according to the current models. Doesn't mean we couldn't have one by 2012's hurricane season though
Quoting KoritheMan:


I read somewhere that weaker tropical cyclones generally produce higher rainfall. I am not sure why this is the case, but it could have something to do with the fact the deepest convection is typically confined to a banding type pattern in those systems, rather than in the heart of a mature CDO/eyewall as is the case in mature hurricanes.
Yep I'd say the fact that it is unorganized is the biggest player. Therefore the heaviest convection is spread out over an area, rather than consolidated in a mature CDO.

Another factor may be the fact that they may move slower (for depressions in the deep tropics that is, not speaking of depressions forming along fronts or in the mid latitudes). My reasoning behind this is the fact that troughs and lows exert less of a pull on depressions and the beta effect is less.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
oh yeah the 2011 atlantic has been well not a horrible season but a bad season for folks on the east coast mexico and the islands.. it could have panned out much worse but thanks to the record low vertical instability we didnt get a lot of hurricanes for a weak la nina season. if next year wont be el nino and vertical instability is average, i just dont wanna find out plus if the troughing off the east coast since 2009 vanishes that would be bad...


Well, it was said in 2010 that it was going to be horrible for the US. The same this year. And this year we had Irene, which was a costly hurricane and a deadly one, so I count it as a bad season. But its not easy to forecast what areas will get hit in an individual season, in fact, its extremely difficult and really can't be done with much accuracy.
Looks like 12E will dissipate over Mexico.
There's a tropical wave out by Cape Verde.
I'm not quite ready to write off the season yet.
It's still hot here in Florida.
Maybe once this forecasted cold front comes through we can write the obit for for hurricane season 2011.
156. txjac
On a side note ...

I just finished a book by Steve Martini called "The Rule of Nine" and in it Weather Underground is mentioned. One of the main characters checks it for weather related info ...way to go Doc Masters!
well if u guys were wundering why we havent gotten an ivan gustav or frances track its because of the troughing off the east coast since 2009. A WSI meteorologist said its been there for 3 years but that doesnt mean i will change. if we dont get el nino next year then we could see active numbers AND if vertical instability remains avergae we will get more hurricanes and majors. What I dont like is that before the 2011 season many pointed out the US will receive at least 3 landfalling hurricanes.. that didnt come true but we still got one bad one. what important to pay attention is the enso and steering flow, not statements that arent facts such as " 2011 will be the year the US gets nailed" these are predictions. right now we are -0.9C in the nino 3.4 region 1 degree shy of a moderate la nina
I don't think the western caribbean would mind a little action at this point. And definitely Texas has not had enough rain.
Such an odd year for extreme weather events: the mad tornado outbreak, the washington, d.c. earthquake followed by um (?) (was in the hospital at that time for planned visit...sorry), the intense flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and the east coast... however, hurricane activity is suppressed. We would consider ourselves lucky if not for the droughts.

Did 93L dump much rain in the Panhandle?
Our trees are happy here in ECFL. We finally got some decent rain out of the invest-whatever-it-was.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
well if u guys were wundering why we havent gotten an ivan gustav or frances track its because of the troughing off the east coast since 2009. A WSI meteorologist said its been there for 3 years but that doesnt mean i will change. if we dont get el nino next year then we could see active numbers AND if vertical instability remains avergae we will get more hurricanes and majors. What I dont like is that before the 2011 season many pointed out the US will receive at least 3 landfalling hurricanes.. that didnt come true but we still got one bad one. what important to pay attention is the enso and steering flow, not statements that arent facts such as " 2011 will be the year the US gets nailed" these are predictions. right now we are -0.9C in the nino 3.4 region 1 degree shy of a moderate la nina

You can breathe now.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That'd be about on time for us here in South Florida if it makes it this far; our first real cold front historically makes its way to us sometime during the last ten days of October. FWIW, the 10-day forecast for Atlanta shows low in the low 40s by the end of next week; Cincinnati shows a low in the 30s; and International Falls down into the 20s.

It's that time of year, I suppose...
Doc, I haven't seen you lately. Lecturing late at The University?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think that there has ever been an Atlantic hurricane season in which we saw more than 15 tropical storms develop, yet only 5 of those tropical storms be able to intensify into hurricanes. This implies that although a bunch of names got check-marked, this season turns out to be a pretty much average one. In my opinion, this is likely due to the lack of instability that was noted throughout the basin for most of the season.
Agreed, and I'd explain the lack of instability over the Tropical Atlantic with the fact that the atmosphere over the region has been drier than normal.

PSD Reanalysis for June to September 2011 shows that nearly every level of the atmosphere from about 15N down to the equator (the deep tropics of the Atlantic) was drier than average in terms of both relative and specific humidity. Equally telling is the total precipitable water product which shows basically the exact same thing (everywhere from around 15N to the equator was drier than normal over the tropical Atlantic for the given time period).

This points to the idea that the deep tropics over the tropical Atlantic have been unusually dry, resulting in a lack of vertical instability. While temperatures also factor into vertical instability, if you check the temperature profile over the tropical Atlantic you will see that it has been warmer than average at the surface to mid levels, and cooler than average from the 200mb level and up (except over the Gulf of Mexico) which means that if anything, June to September 2011 temperature anomalies should have favored increased vertical instability.


To add on to this...

Not surprisingly, when we look at the activity so far over the deep tropics (15N to the equator) of the Atlantic, you'll see we haven't had a single hurricane over that region. All of our hurricanes and major hurricanes have occurred north of 15N, or outside of the deep tropics (except Katia which only briefly made it to hurricane status over the deep tropics). Sure enough, these regions are mostly above average in terms of atmospheric humidity.



Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like 12E will dissipate over Mexico.
There's a tropical wave out by Cape Verde.
I'm not quite ready to write off the season yet.
It's still hot here in Florida.
Maybe once this forecasted cold front comes through we can write the obit for for hurricane season 2011.
You know what it could be over for us here in the States, just looking back at a couple La Nina years in the last decade, and I can't find a storm that hit the US after Oct. 24th which was Wilma, this excluding El Nino years. You have to go all the way back to Mitch in '98 to see a storm hit the States which was Nov. 5th, ironically in Naples where basically Wilma struck.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Agreed, and I'd explain the lack of instability over the Tropical Atlantic with the fact that the atmosphere over the region has been drier than normal.

PSD Reanalysis for June to September 2011 shows that nearly every level of the atmosphere from about 15N down to the equator (the deep tropics of the Atlantic) was drier than average in terms of both relative and specific humidity. Equally telling is the total precipitable water product which shows basically the exact same thing (everywhere from around 15N to the equator was drier than normal over the tropical Atlantic for the given time period).

This points to the idea that the deep tropics over the tropical Atlantic have been unusually dry, resulting in a lack of vertical instability. While temperatures also factor into vertical instability, if you check the temperature profile over the tropical Atlantic you will see that it has been warmer than average at the surface to mid levels, and cooler than average from the 200mb level and up (except over the Gulf of Mexico) which means that if anything, June to September 2011 temperature anomalies should have favored increased vertical instability.


To add on to this...

Not surprisingly, when we look at the activity so far over the deep tropics (15N to the equator) of the Atlantic, you'll see we haven't had a single hurricane over that region. All of our hurricanes and major hurricanes have occurred north of 15N, or outside of the deep tropics. Sure enough, these regions are mostly above average in terms of atmospheric humidity.




I'd hate to see what this season would've looked like if we had high vertical instability.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You know what it could be over for us here in the States, just looking back at a couple La Nina years in the last decade, and I can't find a storm that hit the US after Oct. 24th which was Wilma, this excluding El Nino years. You have to go all the way back to Mitch in '98 to see a storm hit the States which was Nov. 5th, ironically in Naples where basically Wilma struck.

But what are the SST's? And it's still hot here.
We may have a couple of weeks left.
The dry air is a killer though.
That may be what snuffs us out.
Even if a system gets started, if the dry air intrudes, it's curtains.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Agreed, and I'd explain the lack of instability over the Tropical Atlantic with the fact that the atmosphere over the region has been drier than normal.

PSD Reanalysis for June to September 2011 shows that nearly every level of the atmosphere from about 15N down to the equator (the deep tropics of the Atlantic) was drier than average in terms of both relative and specific humidity. Equally telling is the total precipitable water product which shows basically the exact same thing (everywhere from around 15N to the equator was drier than normal over the tropical Atlantic for the given time period).

This points to the idea that the deep tropics over the tropical Atlantic have been unusually dry, resulting in a lack of vertical instability. While temperatures also factor into vertical instability, if you check the temperature profile over the tropical Atlantic you will see that it has been warmer than average at the surface to mid levels, and cooler than average from the 200mb level and up (except over the Gulf of Mexico) which means that if anything, June to September 2011 temperature anomalies should have favored increased vertical instability.


To add on to this...

Not surprisingly, when we look at the activity so far over the deep tropics (15N to the equator) of the Atlantic, you'll see we haven't had a single hurricane over that region. All of our hurricanes and major hurricanes have occurred north of 15N, or outside of the deep tropics (except Katia which only briefly made it to hurricane status over the deep tropics). Sure enough, these regions are mostly above average in terms of atmospheric humidity.






Why do you think the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic was drier than normal?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Why do you think the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic was drier than normal?

We've seen 2 years of dry ULL's killing systems close to the conus imo.
I'm probably wrong, but it seems that way.
Just look at the Gulf now.


Although it does look like moisture might be getting a ground hold. We'll see if it is too late.
Link
Quoting Chicklit:

But what are the SST's? And it's still hot here.
We may have a couple of weeks left.
Well I guess it is not out of the question we could see another Ida, but that happened during El Nino. I must say Ida did well considering the extreme wind shear that was going on in the GOM at the time. Her remnants even produced a Nor'Easter. Quite a fascinating storm if you think about it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd hate to see what this season would've looked like if we had high vertical instability.
honeslty it would be very similar to 2010. pretty similar steering only this year we had one storm miss a trough (irene) and the Gulf Ridge didnt block lousiana and texas from don and lee but pretty similar to 2010 for the numbers :P
Well, the season isn't over until the fat lady can't sing anymore. haha.



I'm rooting for the western caribbean to spin something up. It's hot down there.
jova and td 12 are remnant lows now. irwin down to a td again expected to dissipate tomorrow. we are back in a LULL :P we will see what october brings although personally im not expecting much :P we will see though we hav 18 days left of october 1 to 3 named storms is possible and 1 in november is possbile so an additional 2 to 5 storms is possible
Quoting Chicklit:
Well, the season isn't over until the fat lady can't sing anymore. haha.



I'm rooting for the western caribbean to spin something up. It's hot down there.
Thanks for posting the chart above because I have a question for you, how far west in longitude did Hurricane Irene come before recurving?
We haven't had a Cat. 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic since 2007. Didn't realize until now that Dean & Felix had winds of 175 mph at their peaks :o
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Why do you think the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic was drier than normal?
A variety of reasons. It's incorrect to pinpoint any one reason because everything really has an effect on everything else in earth's atmosphere (and ecosystems). Everything is connected and impact by something else.

With that said, most likely more sinking air than usual would explain the lack of moisture in the atmosphere. Dry air doesn't just show up, there has to be a reason. Since the SSTs have been warmer than normal over the tropical Atlantic (which would favor increased moisture in the atmosphere) it must be a process with the atmosphere which is causing the abnormally dry air over the region. Since SSTs are above average, the best explanation for the drier atmosphere over the deep tropics must be anomalous sinking air over the region...As air sinks, it warms by compression causing relative humidity to drop, further decreasing vertical instability.

Possible explanations for this could be the ENSO, which, although it has been neutral over the nino regions as a whole, has been very positive (warm/El Nino like) in the regions right off central America/South America creating increased convection/vertical instability, favoring sinking air over our tropical Atlantic region. Proof of the El Nino being around average as a whole but very positive near the central America region can be seen with the very intense tropical storms the epac has seen meanwhile the central pac hasn't had a single storm yet.

Other explanations could be the QBO, the relatively low amplitude of the MJO over the season, mid latitude teleconnections, and other reasons I can't think of right now.
We got a couple areas of Low Level Spin Starting...

Quoting TomTaylor:
A variety of reasons. It's incorrect to pinpoint any one reason because everything really has an effect on everything else in earth's atmosphere (and ecosystems). Everything is connected and impact by something else.

With that said, most likely more sinking air than usual would explain the lack of moisture in the atmosphere. Dry air doesn't just show up, there has to be a reason. Since the SSTs have been warmer than normal over the tropical Atlantic (which would favor increased moisture in the atmosphere) it must be a process with the atmosphere which is causing the abnormally dry air over the region. Since SSTs are above average, the best explanation for the drier atmosphere over the deep tropics must be anomalous sinking air over the region...As air sinks, it warms by compression causing relative humidity to drop, further decreasing vertical instability.

Possible explanations for this could be the ENSO, which, although it has been neutral over the nino regions as a whole, has been very positive (warm/El Nino like) in the regions right off central America/South America creating increased convection/vertical instability, favoring sinking air over our tropical Atlantic region. Proof of the El Nino being around average as a whole but very positive near the central America region can be seen with the very intense tropical storms the epac has seen meanwhile the central pac hasn't had a single storm yet.

Other explanations could be the QBO, the relatively low amplitude of the MJO over the season, mid latitude teleconnections, and other reasons I can't think of right now.
So what your saying is that there was high pressure ( higher than normal) over the tropics.


I don't buy the dry air theory. The truth is nobody knows why things were slower than predicted.
Quoting TomTaylor:
A variety of reasons. It's incorrect to pinpoint any one reason because everything really has an effect on everything else in earth's atmosphere (and ecosystems). Everything is connected and impact by something else.

With that said, most likely more sinking air than usual would explain the lack of moisture in the atmosphere. Dry air doesn't just show up, there has to be a reason. Since the SSTs have been warmer than normal over the tropical Atlantic (which would favor increased moisture in the atmosphere) it must be a process with the atmosphere which is causing the abnormally dry air over the region. Since SSTs are above average, the best explanation for the drier atmosphere over the deep tropics must be anomalous sinking air over the region...As air sinks, it warms by compression causing relative humidity to drop, further decreasing vertical instability.

Possible explanations for this could be the ENSO, which, although it has been neutral over the nino regions as a whole, has been very positive (warm/El Nino like) in the regions right off central America/South America creating increased convection/vertical instability, favoring sinking air over our tropical Atlantic region. Proof of the El Nino being around average as a whole but very positive near the central America region can be seen with the very intense tropical storms the epac has seen meanwhile the central pac hasn't had a single storm yet.

Other explanations could be the QBO, the relatively low amplitude of the MJO over the season, mid latitude teleconnections, and other reasons I can't think of right now.


Thanks TomTaylor. You did a really good job of explaining without false certainty. I like that.
Quoting TomTaylor:
A variety of reasons. It's incorrect to pinpoint any one reason because everything really has an effect on everything else in earth's atmosphere (and ecosystems). Everything is connected and impact by something else.

With that said, most likely more sinking air than usual would explain the lack of moisture in the atmosphere. Dry air doesn't just show up, there has to be a reason. Since the SSTs have been warmer than normal over the tropical Atlantic (which would favor increased moisture in the atmosphere) it must be a process with the atmosphere which is causing the abnormally dry air over the region. Since SSTs are above average, the best explanation for the drier atmosphere over the deep tropics must be anomalous sinking air over the region...As air sinks, it warms by compression causing relative humidity to drop, further decreasing vertical instability.

Possible explanations for this could be the ENSO, which, although it has been neutral over the nino regions as a whole, has been very positive (warm/El Nino like) in the regions right off central America/South America creating increased convection/vertical instability, favoring sinking air over our tropical Atlantic region. Proof of the El Nino being around average as a whole but very positive near the central America region can be seen with the very intense tropical storms the epac has seen meanwhile the central pac hasn't had a single storm yet.

Other explanations could be the QBO, the relatively low amplitude of the MJO over the season, mid latitude teleconnections, and other reasons I can't think of right now.


Not that i wanna start a GW debate, but hasn't most GW activist state that more moisture would result from GW. I do believe that is what most are saying!
Quoting FrankZapper:
So what your saying is that there was high pressure ( higher than normal) over the tropics.


I don't buy the dry air theory. The truth is nobody knows why things were slower than predicted.
No that's not exactly what I am saying. Surface pressures have been below average over the tropical Atlantic. You are right that pressures have been higher (not at the surface, but at the mid levels) over the tropical Atlantic which would further support the idea of less vertical instability/convection over the region.

If you don't like my theory, that's fine, but please understand vertical instability is determined by temperature and humidity. Since temperature anomalies over the tropical Atlantic favor increased instability, the only thing that could explain the lack of instability would be the humidity levels. Sure enough, according to the PSD reanalysis data, humidity levels over the tropical Atlantic have been below average.
Quoting FrankZapper:
So what your saying is that there was high pressure ( higher than normal) over the tropics.


I don't buy the dry air theory. The truth is nobody knows why things were slower than predicted.


How can anyone say things are slower than Predicted. Its been very active. Just not much in Land Threats.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Not that i wanna start a GW debate, but hasn't most GW activist state that more moisture would result from GW. I do believe that is what most are saying!
You forget that I am only looking at the tropical Atlantic, not the entire globe.

It's global warming, not tropical Atlantic warming. A warmer world would favor increased evaporation. Of course, a warmer atmosphere would also require more moisture to reach equal relative humidity levels relative to a cooler atmosphere.
Quoting TomTaylor:
You forget that I am only looking at the tropical Atlantic, not the entire globe.

It's global warming, not tropical Atlantic warming. A warmer world would favor increased evaporation. Of course, a warmer atmosphere would also require more moisture to reach equal relative humidity levels relative to a cooler atmosphere.


I did not forget anything. I was thinking of the entire globe. I just don't see the increase moisture over the Globe IMO. MJO should show up much more as an example i would think.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I did not forget anything. I was thinking of the entire globe. I just don't see the increase moisture over the Globe IMO. MJO should show up much more as an example i would think.

Well looking at total precipitable water anomalies anomalies over the entire globe for the last five years (2005-2010) versus the 1980-2010 average, we have already had above average humidity across the entire global atmosphere, just as AGW theory predicted.




And to the bold, why's that?

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks for posting the chart above because I have a question for you, how far west in longitude did Hurricane Irene come before recurving?



As of 2pm Hurricane Irene at 31.2N 77.5W
Quoting TomTaylor:

Well looking at total precipitable water anomalies anomalies over the entire globe for the last five years (2005-2010) versus the 1980-2010 average, we have already had above average humidity across the entire global atmosphere, just as AGW theory predicted.




And to the bold, why's that?



It appears to me that most of the above normal moisture occurred at the equator. With that said and looking off in the Pacific it appears that probably LaNina which has been with us mostly during this time may have had something to do with it. But, i'm sure your gonna say the melting of the Ice Capps which is also possible cause.
Quoting TampaSpin:


It appears to me that most of the above normal moisture occurred at the equator. With that said and looking off in the Pacific it appears that probably LaNina which has been with us mostly during this time may have had something to do with it. But, i'm sure your gonna say the melting of the Ice Capps which is also possible cause.
La Nina has been favored because we are in a cold PDO phase.

And I'm going to say it's because the globe is warmer, therefore more evaporation occurs putting more water in the atmosphere
Region: SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA
Geographic coordinates: 9.359S, 114.647E
Magnitude: 6.0 Mw
Depth: 61 km
Universal Time (UTC): 13 Oct 2011 03:16:32
Time near the Epicenter: 13 Oct 2011 11:16:32
Local standard time in your area: 13 Oct 2011 03:16:32

Location with respect to nearby cities:
100 km (62 miles) SW (220 degrees) of Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia
161 km (100 miles) W (273 degrees) of Mataram, Lombok, Indonesia
170 km (105 miles) SE (145 degrees) of Jember, Java, Indonesia
941 km (585 miles) ESE (113 degrees) of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia


Hearing reports of significant damage to buildings in South Bali. Cracks in walls, collapsed balconies

The other day I was asking myself:

Why doesn't the NHC forecasts Nontropical Lows / Winter storms the same way it does with Tropical systems...

I wrote an email to the NHC...

NHC:
It has been my question for years.... Why doesn't the NHC names Winter storms and acquires data the same way it does during the Hurricane season.... Not only that would incentivate weather science and jobs, but would build a knowledge base that has proven to be related to discuss global weather....

Thanks, sunlinepr



Well, they responded me:


Hello sunlinepr:

Thank you for your e-mail.

The National Hurricane Center does not make forecasts for non-tropical areas of low pressure, including winter storms.
While winter storms are not named, they have been classified on a scale, since 2006.
See http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2567.htm

In addition, hurricane hunter aircraft does fly into winter storms, adding to the accuracy of the forecasts:
See http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/grounders/winter aircraft.html

Regards,

Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
Meteorologist
NOAA Communications & External Affairs
National Hurricane Center
Miami, Florida
Quoting TomTaylor:
La Nina has been favored because we are in a cold PDO phase.

And I'm going to say it's because the globe is warmer, therefore more evaporation occurs putting more water in the atmosphere


Do you not find it strange tho that his year MJO seemed to not have any affect on the Atlantic side at all.....Seems we never really got the MJO uplift going in the Atlantic.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Region: SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA
Geographic coordinates: 9.359S, 114.647E
Magnitude: 6.0 Mw
Depth: 61 km
Universal Time (UTC): 13 Oct 2011 03:16:32
Time near the Epicenter: 13 Oct 2011 11:16:32
Local standard time in your area: 13 Oct 2011 03:16:32

Location with respect to nearby cities:
100 km (62 miles) SW (220 degrees) of Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia
161 km (100 miles) W (273 degrees) of Mataram, Lombok, Indonesia
170 km (105 miles) SE (145 degrees) of Jember, Java, Indonesia
941 km (585 miles) ESE (113 degrees) of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia


Hearing reports of significant damage to buildings in South Bali. Cracks in walls, collapsed balconies


Temples collapse in Bali after 6.8 magnitude quake.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Do you not find it strange tho that his year MJO seemed to not have any affect on the Atlantic side at all.....Seems we never really got the MJO uplift going in the Atlantic.
Yes it is interesting. MJO appears to be in a relatively low amplitude at this time and has been for about a year now. Unfortunately, it does not cycle regularly and not much is known about what regulates it's strength.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Temples collapse in Bali after 6.8 magnitude quake.

Quake claims casualties in some cities and regencies in East Java.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Region: SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA
Geographic coordinates: 9.359S, 114.647E
Magnitude: 6.0 Mw
Depth: 61 km
Universal Time (UTC): 13 Oct 2011 03:16:32
Time near the Epicenter: 13 Oct 2011 11:16:32
Local standard time in your area: 13 Oct 2011 03:16:32

Location with respect to nearby cities:
100 km (62 miles) SW (220 degrees) of Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia
161 km (100 miles) W (273 degrees) of Mataram, Lombok, Indonesia
170 km (105 miles) SE (145 degrees) of Jember, Java, Indonesia
941 km (585 miles) ESE (113 degrees) of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia


Hearing reports of significant damage to buildings in South Bali. Cracks in walls, collapsed balconies



Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes it is interesting. MJO appears to be in a relatively low amplitude at this time and has been for about a year now. Unfortunately, it does not cycle regularly and not much is known about what regulates it's strength.



Thanks Tom........great discussion!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thanks Tom........great discussion!
No problem, hope things are well in Florida.

I gotta go do some hw, later
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Thanks TomTaylor. You did a really good job of explaining without false certainty. I like that.
no problem
WoW has Dr. Masters Blog got slower and slower. When the Admin. keeps banning the good peeps this is the result. So sorry that many of my friends no longer blog here any more. SAD SAD!
really quick, latest GFS (0z) develops a low just east of the Yucatan peninsula in just 3/4 days.
Quoting TomTaylor:
really quick, latest GFS (0z) develops a low just east of the Yucatan peninsula in just 3/4 days.


Yep i see that.....It appears to come from the Pacific side.
Quoting AussieStorm:



As of 2pm Hurricane Irene at 31.2N 77.5W
Aha, so it's 77.5 W. anything that formed west of that longitude in the Atlantic Basin has not reached Hurricane strength so far this season. Thanks Aussie! :)
low off NC at 288 hrs
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep i see that.....It appears to come from the Pacific side.

Look at all of Jova's moisture.... going to FL.
Not much going on with the 00Z GFS...weak LP's. The MJO has been hanging around over in the W Pacific for a while. Looks like it might take a little longer to migrate towards the Atlantic basin. I think if we even get any decent storms or canes it will be closer towards the end of the month.



Quoting redwagon:

Look at all of Jova's moisture.... going to FL.


LOL..TX just can't squeeze a drop out of anything tropical, even our "old reliable", EPac.
Damage in Bali from 6.0 Quake at 13 Oct 2011 11:16.











Dozens injured in Bali quake

Indonesia's resort island of Bali was struck by a 6.0 magnitude earthquake today, shaking buildings and sending tourists running out of hotels.

The epicentre of the quake was about 160 km southwest of the island's capital Denpasar, the US Geological Survey said.

The quake was strong enough to be felt on the neighbouring islands of Java and Lombok.

A spokesperson for the local hospital said at least 50 people were hurt, many with cuts, broken bones and head wounds.

Three people were in critical condition.

Caroline Mercier, a 40-year-old tourist in the island's cultural centre of Ubud, said she was used to feeling quakes in California, but never like this one.

"It started at my feet and went all though my heart and head - it made me nauseous. My first reaction was to get out of the house. I was very confused when the roof started shaking," she told Reuters.

Novotel Bali Benoa, one of the many resorts in the luxury southern beach area of Nusa Dua, evacuated its guests as the hotel shook for a minute.

"The funny thing is that the foreign guests who were sitting in the lobby did not feel the shaking. They started running when hearing people say 'there's an earthquake' while running down the lobby," hotel worker Ariyanti told Reuters.

Endro Tjahjono, head of information at Bali's meteorology agency, said there was no tsunami potential and no reports of aftershocks. Cracks appeared in the walls and glass lobby windows of his office in the southern town of Kuta, and some top floor ceilings fell off, he said.

Indonesia is on the Pacific's "Rim of Fire" and gets regular earthquakes.

Storm kills four in western Mexico

The powerful storm system Jova has killed four people in Mexico and is still packing strong gusts a day after making landfall.

The system had roared ashore in Jalisco state on Tuesday as a category two hurricane, but late on Wednesday had weakened to a remnant of the powerful system it once was.

At least four people were confirmed dead on Wednesday, including when a 21-year-old woman and her five-year-old daughter were swept away by flood waters in Jalisco.

An air rescue meanwhile saved 39 people threatened by rising waters in the state, officials said.

Despite rapidly losing its punch, Jova was still packing strong gusts a day after making landfall, with sustained winds topping 45km/h.

Jova uprooted trees and knocked down protective walls as it lashed western Mexico, with officials warning of flash floods and mudslides.

The system was moving inland at about 9km/h and was expected to weaken further, eventually dissipating on Thursday, but Jova's 'heavy rainfall remains a major threat', the Miami-based National Hurricane Centre said.

Despite the downgrade, Jova could deposit as much as a half-metre of rain in some areas, with downpours creating perilous conditions in parts of the popular tourist destination of southwestern Mexico.

The heavy precipitation could cause 'life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over steep terrain', the NHC said.

Meanwhile to the south, at least 19 people were killed when torrential rains brought by a separate storm system hit large swaths of Central America, with more than 40,000 people hit by flooding and landslides.

Guatemala was worst hit by the heavy rains dumped by tropical depression '12-E', with President Alvaro Colom saying at least 13 people were killed, while El Salvador recorded two deaths and Nicaragua saw at least four deaths.

Jova battered Mexico just as thousands of athletes from around the world began arriving for the Pan American Games, which begin on Friday in Guadalajara, the Jalisco state capital more than 100km from the coast.

Authorities have insisted the games, one of the premier events on the global sports calendar, would not be affected.

Mexican troops on Wednesday patrolled the streets of Manzanillo, some 800km west of Mexico City where the storm crashed ashore. Some of the busy port was under more than a metre of water, according to an AFP photographer.

All port and marine activity has been halted there, and several beachfront restaurants were under threat as a retaining wall collapsed.

Several communities experienced power outages and some schools cancelled classes on Wednesday, while 170 people living in high-risk areas moved to shelters.

Several major storms or hurricanes have buffeted Mexico's Pacific coast in recent months but most have remained offshore.

The season's first named storm, Arlene, left at least 16 people dead and drenched much of the country in July.

Tropical storms and hurricanes last year caused flooding and mudslides in Mexico that killed 125 people, left hundreds of thousands homeless and caused more than $US4 billion ($A3.95 billion) in damage.
Lots of storms, but not a lot of powerful storms. Very few landfalls the last few years and no cat5's in the ATL basin in years. Isn't this supposed to be the time of AGW? Lots of big 'canes of high intensity? Just go back and read all the crap from '04 and'05 about the future of tropical weather and the predictions of DOOM. I'm glad it hasn't materialized but I do remember Big Al and the media blaming Katrina on AGW and predicting more numerous and powerful storms would be the norm. Hard for me to take them seriously when their conclusions turn out to be so convincingly wrong. Yes the earth is warmer, but the tropics haven't responded like they said it would, so how do we know any of their other predictions about AGW will be right 50 to 100 years from now when they can't even get a 5 year forecast right? We need serious, unbiased research without a politcal agenda. The issue is too important to get wrong. My two cents. G'night.
Quoting TampaSpin:
WoW has Dr. Masters Blog got slower and slower. When the Admin. keeps banning the good peeps this is the result. So sorry that many of my friends no longer blog here any more. SAD SAD!


Well, this is what many people here wanted - a totally dry, humorless weather-centered blog.

BTW, new blog...