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Category 2 Gonzalo Hits Bemuda; Hurricane Ana Brushing Hawaii; Trudy Drenching Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:46 PM GMT on October 18, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo made a direct hit on the island of Bermuda near 8:30 pm EDT Friday night rated by NHC as a strong Category 2 storm with sustained 110 mph winds. Sustained winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 76 mph, with a gust to 96 mph, as the northern eyewall passed overhead between 8 - 9 pm ADT. After a calm lasting about an hour, when the pressure sank to 953 mb, the southern eyewall hit, with stronger winds than the northern eyewall--93 mph, gusting to 113 mph, at 11:55 pm ADT. An unofficial gust of 144 mph was recorded at Commissioners Point at an elevation of 262', a site notorious for recording strong winds due to local terrain effects. In addition, a sustained wind of 89 mph gusting to 144 mph was reported at an elevation of 159' at St. Davids near the airport (thanks to wunderground member BDAwx for this stat.)


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gonzalo taken at approximately 11:00 am EDT October 17, 2014. At the time, Gonzalo had top winds of 125 mph, and was embedded in a cold front whose clouds extended northwards past Cape Cod, Massachusetts and into Nova Scotia, Canada. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Gonzalo as seen by the Bermuda radar at 9:43 pm ADT October 17, 2014, when the eye was over the island. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Gonzalo's damage not as heavy as Fabian's of 2003
Thankfully, no one was killed on Bermuda from Gonzalo. Damage on the island was considerable, though appears to be much lower than that wrought by Category 3 Hurricane Fabian of 2003, the only hurricane to get its name retired exclusively because of its impact on the island of Bermuda. Fabian did $300 million in damage, making it the most expensive hurricane ever to hit the island. Fabian's storm surge destroyed the causeway connecting the airport to the rest of the island, and this causeway withstood Gonzalo's impact--though divers are scheduled to inspect its footings Saturday afternoon before reopening will occur. Damage at the airport was mostly minor (roof damage and minor flooding), and all the navigational infrastructure seems intact. The storm surge damaged the airport's weather sensors, though, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. According to the island's utility provider, BELCO, about 35,700 of the island's 36,000 metered homes were without power at the height of Gonzalo. Virtually all of the island's major roads were blocked by downed trees and power lines.


Video 1. This time-lapse animation shows the evolution of Gonzalo (viewed in infrared, but overlaid on the Blue Marble) from midday on October 13 to midday on October 17, 2014. Images were acquired by the GOES-East geosynchronous weather satellite, which was built by NASA and is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


Video 2. Powerful winds sweep across Bermuda on the evening of October 17, 2014, as Hurricane Gonzalo makes landfall. Video by Nicholas Ferrando.


Figure 3. Bermuda Weather Service Meteorological Technician Wayne Little waiting for the lull to release the 00Z (8 pm EDT) weather balloon/sonde into the eye of Hurricane Gonzalo on October 17, 2014. The balloon was successfully launched, and returned a sounding showing a very moist and warm atmosphere inside the eye--no surprise, since hurricanes are warm-cored low pressure systems. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service

Gonzalo headed towards Canada
Gonzalo is steadily weakening as it speeds north-northeastwards towards Canada. Infrared and visible satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that Gonzalo had lost its well-defined eye, and the storm had been stretched into an elliptical shape by high wind shear. Gonzalo is still expected to have Category 1 strength winds when it makes its closest pass by Southeast Newfoundland, predicted to occur between 4 am - 6 am EDT Sunday by the 00Z Saturday runs of the GFS and European models. In their 5 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave Cape Race, Newfoundland a 57% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds. Heavy rains from ex-Gonzalo are likely to be the main threat to Newfoundland.


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Ana near the Big Island of Hawaii taken on October 17, 2014. At the time, Ana had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 5. Radar image of Ana at 10:20 am EDT OCtober 18, 2014, from the Kona radar.

Hurricane Ana bringing heavy rains to Hawaii
Hurricane Ana took advantage of light wind shear and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) warm of 27.4°C (81°F) to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds as of 5 am EDT on Saturday, but is not a threat to make a direct hit on any of the Hawaiian Islands. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that Ana had its most impressive appearance yet, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms, plenty of low level spiral bands, and solid upper-level outflow to the north and east. Heavy rains causing flash floods and mudslides are a major concern. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8 inches are possible on the Big Island, where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect. Portions of the island had received 2 - 3" of rain as of Saturday morning, according to radar estimates.

Related posts
Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes, my August 6, 2014 post
Climatic Atlas of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Central North Pacific (2008)

Tropical Storm Trudy hits Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Trudy formed Friday night and was making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico about 75 miles east-southeast of Acapulco on Saturday morning with sustained winds of 60 mph. Acapulco radar is showing very heavy rains affecting the coast, and Trudy has the potential to dump rains of 6 - 12 inches during the next few days in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca in southern Mexico. Moisture from Trudy will move northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by early next week, contributing to the formation of a large area of low pressure that will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Gulf Coast, Western Cuba, and South Florida on Wednesday through Friday.

Jeff Masters
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Pre Gonzalo photos
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A crate from a container ship lands in Hamilton Harbour.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Bermuda Gov. George Fergusson tweeted that police have reported no deaths or serious injuries and that damage has been extensive but not catastrophic.

That should put to rest any doubt that Bermuda is one tough cookie during a hurricane.

Bermuda will suffer damage in a storm...especially when it comes to trees and power lines. But that applies to anywhere.

It's the construction of homes, hotels and office structures that is beyond impressive.

America should take a few lessons from Bermuda's playbook and enact concrete based construction codes for coastal areas.

Compare Homestead, FL on the morning of August 25, 1992 to Bermuda on October 18, 2014...and the difference is plain to see.
congrats to the people of bermuda and props to the officials responsible for their building codes
Two Cat-2 hurricane landfalls this season where the ACE is below average and little damage and casualties. Were lucky. And I guess with Gonzo weakening just before crossing Bermuda that makes Sandy the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic in Cuba.
Thanks Doc..Very glad the hurricane went from a 4 to a 2.
Not a lot of people have the you-know-what's to launch a weather balloon into the eye of a hurricane. I saw the sonde data earlier and it was quite impressive. Definitely an opportunity one doesn't get that often.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Glad Bermuda got away in pretty good shape, and not surprised as they are quite possibly the best in the world at tropical cyclone preparedness. As Gonzalo heads for extratropical transition in 24-36 hours, it is now very possible that we've seen the last of tropical cyclones for the Atlantic this year. A couple models still want to spin something up in the Gulf or Caribbean in the next week or so, but that's been the case basically all season and it hasn't happened. MJO should be on its way out over the next several days, and it's tough to get much going without that at this time of year.

Thanks Dr. Masters u are the best!! i love this blog about the hurricane i was outside in this hurricane the winds put me right on the ground
Thanks Dr. Masters! Hopefully Gonzalo doesn't try anything crazy with Newfoundland after sparing Bermuda.
Thank You, Dr. Masters.

Reminder, for those thinking these storms are no big deal, ask those in Bermuda that went through Fay & Gonzalo, then remember as a whole it was a cat2 that caused so much havoc as it can spawn much higher winds in pockets so do you want to be hit by 110 mph debris or 130mph debris?
(Fay & Gonzalo Satellite imagery) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REDf39M6XEc

Thanks again as always.
Fascinating system to watch over the last few days, great way to end the season.
Hats off to Bermuda for being well prepared.
Goes to show you what strict building codes,
solid construction and a sound hurricane plan
can get you thru.

BTW if you might mention to the powers to be at the TWC. Switching over to pre-scheduled programing just as the southern eye wall was going thru was really bush league. Probably lost 99.9% of their viewers.
Thanks for update!

That 144mph gust was at St. David's, not as elevated and other end of the island. 159ft amsl according to the hurricane igor report.
NHC Update at 12am Eastern
"DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/H...AND
A GUST TO 144 MPH...232 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING
SITE AT ST. DAVIDS NEAR THE BERMUDA AIRPORT."

1145. Stormwatch247
2:22 PM GMT on October 18, 2014

DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??





Hurricanes Emily and Wilma both made landfall between Cozumel and Cancún in 2005.
Quoting 12. hydrus:


1145. Stormwatch247
2:22 PM GMT on October 18, 2014

DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??





Hurricanes Emily and Wilma both made landfall between Cozumel and Cancún in 2005.


Tropical Storm Arthur hit the outer banks in 1996 also I think




Gonzalo headed towards Canada
Quoting CycloneOz:
Bermuda Gov. George Fergusson tweeted that police have reported no deaths or serious injuries and that damage has been extensive but not catastrophic.

That should put to rest any doubt that Bermuda is one tough cookie during a hurricane.

Bermuda will suffer damage in a storm...especially when it comes to trees and power lines. But that applies to anywhere.

It's the construction of homes, hotels and office structures that is beyond impressive.

America should take a few lessons from Bermuda's playbook and enact concrete based construction codes for coastal areas.

Compare Homestead, FL on the morning of August 25, 1992 to Bermuda on October 18, 2014...and the difference is plain to see.


You're really going to compare a CAT2 to a CAT5?
hawaii is saying thank you ana



took this screenshot from the video that Jeff posted

looks like a painting o.o
You're really going to compare a CAT2 to a CAT5?


ok...how about comparing it to frances then.....regardless of the comparison....bermuda's building codes provide homes that are better protected from winds
Quoting 1. CycloneOz:

Bermuda Gov. George Fergusson tweeted that police have reported no deaths or serious injuries and that damage has been extensive but not catastrophic.

That should put to rest any doubt that Bermuda is one tough cookie during a hurricane.

Bermuda will suffer damage in a storm...especially when it comes to trees and power lines. But that applies to anywhere.

It's the construction of homes, hotels and office structures that is beyond impressive.

America should take a few lessons from Bermuda's playbook and enact concrete based construction codes for coastal areas.

Compare Homestead, FL on the morning of August 25, 1992 to Bermuda on October 18, 2014...and the difference is plain to see.


Your point about building codes is valid, but 160mph winds have more than double the kinetic energy of 110mph winds. Not quite the right comparison.
Repost - too hard to read so I re-posted
From the NOAA report on Andrew

Hurricane Andrew’s intensity is very
likely to be in the range of 136–155 kt for the maximum
1-min surface winds that impacted the coast at
landfall in mainland southeastern Florida, with a best
single estimate of 145 kt

Peak gusts over oceanic
conditions and over land were likely to be on the order
of 160–170 kt, based upon typical gust factors utilized
(e.g., Powell and Houston 1996).
DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES (hits within 100 miles of a location) REVISED

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??
Quoting 22. Stormwatch247:

DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES (hits within 100 miles of a location) REVISED

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??



But you kept Isidore?

In 1955 NC was hit by Connie, Diane, and Ione in the same year, Ione being the line major out of that group I believe.
Quoting 1. CycloneOz:

Bermuda Gov. George Fergusson tweeted that police have reported no deaths or serious injuries and that damage has been extensive but not catastrophic.

That should put to rest any doubt that Bermuda is one tough cookie during a hurricane.

Bermuda will suffer damage in a storm...especially when it comes to trees and power lines. But that applies to anywhere.

It's the construction of homes, hotels and office structures that is beyond impressive.

America should take a few lessons from Bermuda's playbook and enact concrete based construction codes for coastal areas.

Compare Homestead, FL on the morning of August 25, 1992 to Bermuda on October 18, 2014...and the difference is plain to see.


Sorry but a HUGE difference between Andrew and Gonzalo...... Two totally different storms...... Granted some areas and homes were not built well prior Andrew.... New building codes have made a huge difference as we saw after Wilma here in S. Fla. For all new homes or business built it is mandatory to have hurricane shutters or hurricane proof windows, hurricane rated exterior doors and garage doors and roofs require more tie down straps....
25. vis0
Mr. Littles GREAT WORK FOR REAL,

Image has A FAKE Wet floor sign w/Hurr.symbol, SEE REAL IMAGE on Dr/ Masters blogbyte
(tried to use my url embedded img program (keep real image history) but Wxu not accepting it.

Sorry but a HUGE difference between Andrew and Gonzalo...... Two totally different storms...... Granted some areas and homes were not built well prior Andrew.... New building codes have made a huge difference as we saw after Wilma here in S. Fla


there's many aspects of the florida building codes that could be argued......including the wind zone map.....the largest problem florida faces is not the building codes as they are written today...but the amount of homes that were built before the more stringent codes took effect (not to mention the amount of fraud that was rife back then when it came to building inspections) and the large population of modular homes that are not required to meet the new codes....
Quoting 23. win1gamegiantsplease:



But you kept Isidore?

In 1955 NC was hit by Connie, Diane, and Ione in the same year, Ione being the line major out of that group I believe.


The list was since 1995
Quoting 22. Stormwatch247:

DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES (hits within 100 miles of a location) REVISED

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??



1999 - Dennis and Floyd hit NC
1999 - Harvey and Irene hit S Florida (not sure this qualifies though)
Claudette and Ida in 2009 both hit extreme western Florida
Quoting 1. CycloneOz:

Bermuda Gov. George Fergusson tweeted that police have reported no deaths or serious injuries and that damage has been extensive but not catastrophic.

That should put to rest any doubt that Bermuda is one tough cookie during a hurricane.

Bermuda will suffer damage in a storm...especially when it comes to trees and power lines. But that applies to anywhere.

It's the construction of homes, hotels and office structures that is beyond impressive.

America should take a few lessons from Bermuda's playbook and enact concrete based construction codes for coastal areas.

Compare Homestead, FL on the morning of August 25, 1992 to Bermuda on October 18, 2014...and the difference is plain to see.
Whilst I do not wish to enter any comparisons between Hurricanes (as all normally have a devestating and all too often tragic impact in one way or another), I would categorically state that given a choice between any USA Building Code (regarding Hurricane Mitigation) and Bermuda Codes (as well as their long established local building practices and methods - even prior to Codes) I would opt in favour of Bermuda.
Whereas many readers may have distinctly adverse feeling about Offshore FInance Centres, there is little doubt in my mind that the Business Continuity Planning, Resilience Practices and Mitigation standards demanded of many of these international organisations, go a long way to aiding the recovery of locations such as Bermuda to name but one.
What we should all be thankful for, regardless of either, how strong Gonzalo was or, we think that we may have been through stronger, it appears that there are no significant casualties - that above all else is the most important point!
Quoting 27. Hurricanes101:



The list was since 1995


ah yes, overlooked the info in brackets (forgive me, it was Friday night ;p), and somebody I think posted a 1985 stat on the last blog. Although in his or her case I don't think Dennis was at hurricane intensity.
Quoting 22. Stormwatch247:

DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES (hits within 100 miles of a location) REVISED

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??

I would also add that IVAN could be counted as at least a Triple Hit Hurricane due to impact on Grenanda
Quoting 31. win1gamegiantsplease:



ah yes, overlooked the info in brackets (forgive me, it was Friday night ;p), and somebody I think posted a 1985 stat on the last blog. Although in his or her case I don't think Dennis was at hurricane intensity.


It does say hurricanes doesn't it? lol

I missed that, so I now that none of the ones I listed qualify.

WU is awesome - thank YOU Everyone for all of your input to the double-hit hurricane list!

When the hurricane season ends, I am always studying past hurricanes.

Really like watching the unusual late-season storms! (mid Oct - Dec).

Hope we get something form ... late-season in 2014... even a fish storm is OK.

Living on the Gulf Coast, most of my life, have been through SO many storms and hurricanes.

ALL of them catch my "EYE!" (pardon the pun!)
Quoting 32. SSideBrac:

I would also add that IVAN could be counted as at least a Triple Hit Hurricane due to impact on Grenanda


the list highlights the areas that were hit by more than 1 hurricane in a season. Grenada was only hit by Ivan, so it would not be listed in this instance
Quoting 35. Hurricanes101:



the list highlights the areas that were hit by more than 1 hurricane in a season. Grenada was only hit by Ivan, so it would not be listed in this instance
Ok - my bad - misread the original context :-)
Hydrus you forgot Cindy 2005
Quoting 23. win1gamegiantsplease:



But you kept Isidore?

In 1955 NC was hit by Connie, Diane, and Ione in the same year, Ione being the line major out of that group I believe.


Isidore and Lili were both HURRICANES when they impacted W Cuba. :) They both eventually made another landfall in Louisiana ....yes, Isidore's inner structure never fully recovered after slamming the Yucatan ... and hit LA as a T.S.)

On another note: T.S. Allison made landfall east of Apalachicola, FL, the same year that Hurricanes Erin and Opal plowed into NW Florida. T. S. Arthur did hit NC as a TS in 1996, before Bertha and Fran. T.S. Arlene did hit NW FL, before Dennis slammed the area in 2005.

Was looking for HURRICANES with recorded hurricane wind gusts or higher - at the same locations within 100 miles of landfall points or so...

Double hit hurricanes could also be interpreted as Betsy and Andrew, which first hit S Florida, and then SE Louisiana next.

Was really looking for 2 different named hurricanes (with 74 MPH) that hit the same region - in the same season.

But tropical storms are very significant also, and really appreciate all the feedback.

Quoting 23. win1gamegiantsplease:



But you kept Isidore?

In 1955 NC was hit by Connie, Diane, and Ione in the same year, Ione being the line major out of that group I believe.


1955 was so unbelievable!!! Especially for the Carolinas and New England!!!! Wow!
Quoting 38. Stormwatch247:



Isidore and Lili were both HURRICANES when they impacted W Cuba. :) They both eventually made another landfall in Louisiana ....


And didn't see w. Cuba along with hurricanes. I'm gonna stop while I'm behind.



goodbye to ana!!
HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N 38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
Can anyone copy and paste the wind field image from the NOAA report (page 1703) into the blog?
For some reason I can only save it as a word document, but I can't post it into the blog.

It's colorful and shows lines of equal wind speed as Andrew made landfall.
It shows just N.E. of the center winds estimated to be 153 knots at landfall.

Here's the NOAA report done on Hurricane Andrew.

Link to document
Link
Quoting 22. Stormwatch247:

DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES (hits within 100 miles of a location) REVISED

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??



1995 : Iris, Luis and Marilyn in the northern leewards islands (being the worse hurricane season for the lesser Antilles ever)
1996 : Bertha and Hortense a year later and in 1999 : José and Lenny (all in the same area)
Quoting SSideBrac:
Whilst I do not wish to enter any comparisons between Hurricanes (as all normally have a devestating and all too often tragic impact in one way or another), I would categorically state that given a choice between any USA Building Code (regarding Hurricane Mitigation) and Bermuda Codes (as well as their long established local building practices and methods - even prior to Codes) I would opt in favour of Bermuda.
Whereas many readers may have distinctly adverse feeling about Offshore FInance Centres, there is little doubt in my mind that the Business Continuity Planning, Resilience Practices and Mitigation standards demanded of many of these international organisations, go a long way to aiding the recovery of locations such as Bermuda to name but one.
What we should all be thankful for, regardless of either, how strong Gonzalo was or, we think that we may have been through stronger, it appears that there are no significant casualties - that above all else is the most important point!

That's an interesting point about the requirements of the businesses, but I also wonder about the fact that risk cannot be shared over a large population. Also, raw materials have to be shipped in. The cost of rebuilding wood houses in terms of insurance and materials is probably exorbitant compared to Florida. People in Bermuda just can't afford to have to rebuild. JMHO

With sea level rise the cost of rebuilding in Florida will become too high also, but for a different reason: no point rebuilding on a site that is under water too often (tides, surges). Bermuda will have to deal with this issue also.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Thanks Dr. Masters. Glad Bermuda got away in pretty good shape, and not surprised as they are quite possibly the best in the world at tropical cyclone preparedness. As Gonzalo heads for extratropical transition in 24-36 hours, it is now very possible that we've seen the last of tropical cyclones for the Atlantic this year. A couple models still want to spin something up in the Gulf or Caribbean in the next week or so, but that's been the case basically all season and it hasn't happened. MJO should be on its way out over the next several days, and it's tough to get much going without that at this time of year.


Always possible we get a few mid-latitude systems in November and December.
Quoting 11. BDAwx:

Thanks for update!

That 144mph gust was at St. David's, not as elevated and other end of the island. 159ft amsl according to the hurricane igor report.
NHC Update at 12am Eastern
"DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/H...AND
A GUST TO 144 MPH...232 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING
SITE AT ST. DAVIDS NEAR THE BERMUDA AIRPORT."


Thanks, I included this stat in my post.

Dr. M.
Average median salary per person island-wide

In 2012, it was calculated as $69,183. That year, the average in the banking and international business sector was estimated as US$ 89,896. Many earn far more. Median incomes of Bermudians stood at $65,559, non-Bermudians stood at $89,315. High median salaries included actuaries at $175,378, lawyers at $180,499 and auditors at $100,000. Job benefits went up with 10,551 getting annual bonuses and 3,541 getting stock options. More than 2,300 workers got mortgage subsidies or rent subsidies while more than 1,800 got travel allowances. The percentage of Bermudians in the workforce fell from 74 percent in 2001 to 70 percent in 2008

With Gross National Income (GNI) of more than US$ 99,500 per capita, the World Bank rated it #1 in the world.
Quoting 44. Vlad959810:



1995 : Iris, Luis and Marilyn in the northern leewards islands (being the worse hurricane season for the lesser Antilles ever)
1996 : Bertha and Hortense a year later and in 1999 : José and Lenny (all in the same area)


Iris was not a hurricane when it impacted the norther leewards, but Luis and Marilyn look like they do qualify
Bertha did not officially make landfall in Puerto Rico in 1996 according to the Unisys tracks.

That being said, it looks like your last one of Jose and Lenny does in fact qualify
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:

Can anyone copy and paste the wind field image from the NOAA report (page 1703) into the blog?
For some reason I can only save it as a word document, but I can't post it into the blog.

It's colorful and shows lines of equal wind speed as Andrew made landfall.
It shows just N.E. of the center winds estimated to be 153 knots at landfall.

Here's the NOAA report done on Hurricane Andrew.

Link to document
Link


Quoting 45. bappit:


That's an interesting point about the requirements of the businesses, but I also wonder about the fact that risk cannot be shared over a large population. Also, raw materials have to be shipped in. The cost of rebuilding wood houses in terms of insurance and materials is probably exorbitant compared to Florida. People in Bermuda just can't afford to have to rebuild. JMHO

With sea level rise the cost of rebuilding in Florida will become too high also, but for a different reason: no point rebuilding on a site that is under water too often (tides, surges). Bermuda will have to deal with this issue also.
On the subject of build, perhaps it was really down to the nature of the land and materials that they found - largely Limestone. This, added to the facts that many were seafarers (of one sort or another) and the UK wanted a "fortress island" (many years ago) probably formulated an original overall build concept - but I am sure that not all could necessarily afford it. Most small Island Nations face the ever rising costs of importing Building Materials, Fittings, Furniture, etc.etc. - some (the more affluent?) for now seem to "swallow it up" and get on with it as they have no choice really - others just point blank cannot afford it so are vulnerable to risks such as Hurricanes.
I cannot speak for Bermuda, but I do know in Cayman after Ivan, most International Businesses located in Grand Cayman stepped up to the plate regarding corporate aid to the civil community in varying ways.
Your point about sea level rise is well taken and is a factor that will affect (already does in some locations) many around the globe - some locations - more developed nations - may have choices available for their citizens - whilst other poor nations may have no choices at all - but I digress :-)
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:




Thanks, that's better than I could do. The dark blue/purple area NE of the center is the 153 knots wind area.
12Z GFS puts a low in the GOM/BOC on Wednesday.
I don't think the models really know what to do with the low. Will it develop and will it be tropical?



Hurricane GONZALO Max sustained: 90 mph at 1:29 PM EDT on October 18, 2014
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:

Can anyone copy and paste the wind field image from the NOAA report (page 1703) into the blog?
For some reason I can't save it as a word document, but I can't post it into the blog.

It's colorful and shows lines of equal wind speed as Andrew made landfall.
It shows just N.E. of the center winds estimated to be 153 knots at landfall.

Here's the NOAA report done on Hurricane Andrew.

Link to document
Link


Yeah, I'm glad the reanalysis of Andrew led to it being upgraded to a category 5 at landfall. Not to down play a category 4 by any means, which still causes very severe damage, but the damage in some areas from Andrew was off the charts. If you didn't know any better, you'd think some areas were hit by a strong tornado.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, I'm glad the reanalysis of Andrew led to it being upgraded to a category 5 at landfall. Not to down play a category 4 by any means, which still causes very severe damage, but the damage in some areas from Andrew was off the charts. If you didn't know any better, you'd think some areas were hit by a strong tornado.


Many people don't understand how strong the winds really were during Andrew.
Some believe gusts approached or exceeded 200mph.
Almost every anemometer stopped working once the winds topped 150 mph range.

Pic of cars flipped over by the winds. I was reading that one house had a neighbor's truck in his back yard.
Hawaii getting heavy rains even though Ana's center is far to the south.
Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:



Many people don't understand how strong the winds really were during Andrew.
Some believe gusts approached or exceeded 200mph.
Almost every anemometer stopped working once the winds topped 150 mph range.

Pic of cars flipped over by the winds. I was reading that one house had a neighbor's truck in his back yard.



The website I took the contour map from has a great article about Andrew's winds Link

Michael Laca was in Coconut Grove filming it and while it's too dark to see much that wind is howling and he's at the outer edge of the eyewall when you look at the map. Link
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


The website I took the contour map from has a great article about Andrew's winds Link

Michael Laca was in Coconut Grove filming it and while it's too dark to see much that wind is howling and he's at the outer edge of the eyewall when you look at the map. Link


That's some good stuff.
Thanks
Quoting 56. Jedkins01:



Yeah, I'm glad the reanalysis of Andrew led to it being upgraded to a category 5 at landfall. Not to down play a category 4 by any means, which still causes very severe damage, but the damage in some areas from Andrew was off the charts. If you didn't know any better, you'd think some areas were hit by a strong tornado.
I remember the night Andrew hit vividly. Was living in Port Charlotte at the time. We had 30-40mph winds in gusts. We did get over 20 inches of rain June of that year from a depression, which caused serious flooding in many areas. People who were still flooded were worried about how much rain could fall from Andrew, and rightly so, due to the heavy summer rains on top of the depressions total.
Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:



Many people don't understand how strong the winds really were during Andrew.
Some believe gusts approached or exceeded 200mph.
Almost every anemometer stopped working once the winds topped 150 mph range.

Pic of cars flipped over by the winds. I was reading that one house had a neighbor's truck in his back yard.

The damage I witnessed in Cutler Ridge is the worst I ever saw in my lifetime. I saw steel I beams that supported billboards gnarled into what looked like the twisty ties on a bag of bread. Krome Ave looked like it was put through a shredder.
no serious injuries or deaths. Thank God our prayers were heard.
Quoting 22. Stormwatch247:

DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES (hits within 100 miles of a location) REVISED

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes:



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands

2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida

Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??



Frances and Jeanne, 2004 Grand Bahama Island. The Bahamas
ECMWF quickly spins up a system off the coast of Africa.
No threat to anyone, but interesting if it happens.
Thanks, Dr Masters..... another EPAC storm...
12Z Euro still develops a system in the Northeast.
Wow Trudy 60 mph in less than 24 hours? If it be on the water for more 12-18 hours we had the 16th hurricane of season and break a historic record. I don't like that Trudy doesn't became the 14th consecutive hurricane.
ECMWF quickly spins up a system off the coast of Africa.
No threat to anyone, but interesting if it happens.



cmc also had it for a few days
12Z GEM doom run (988mb low)down in the Caribbean at 240 hours.
The low forms early and basically stalls out in the western Caribbean.

Quoting 63. hydrus:

The damage I witnessed in Cutler Ridge is the worst I ever saw in my lifetime. I saw steel I beams that supported billboards gnarled into what looked like the twisty ties on a bag of bread. Krome Ave looked like it was put through a shredder.


That's the thing about building codes, they save lives but when a hurricane can do that to steel and this to a tree (albeit a softer wooded tree) there's not much you can do but hope the structure is solid.

12Z ECMWF puts a low in the same area of the Caribbean at the same time as the GEM but its a much weaker system.




big hurricane!
Quoting 72. win1gamegiantsplease:



That's the thing about building codes, they save lives but when a hurricane can do that to steel and this to a tree (albeit a softer wooded tree) there's not much you can do but hope the structure is solid.


Let me tell ya sumpthin Win1, there is nothing soft about the wood inside that Coconut Palm...Grab an ax and take a swing....it will kill yer hands..:)
Quoting 73. Sfloridacat5:

12Z ECMWF puts a low in the same area of the Caribbean at the same time as the GEM but its a much weaker system.



The latest ECMWF takes it close to Louisiana..

12Z ECMWF at 240 hours has a developing low heading towards the Gulf Coast.
Let me tell ya sumpthin Win1, there is nothing soft about the wood inside that Coconut Palm...Grab an ax and take a swing....it will kill yer hands..:)


horizontally a monster with an axe...but vertically it splits pretty easy....still...that's winds of a cat 1 or 2 tornado to do that
12Z ECMWF at 240 hours has a developing low heading towards the Gulf Coast.


how well have those long range models done so far......heck....florida would be devoid of life and buildings if they all had materialized
Quoting hydrus:
The latest ECMWF takes it close to Louisiana..



You beat me to it.
Yes it does.
Definitely something to watch for. The location and intensity will surely change, but anything that gets into the GOM is land locked and has to make landfall somewhere.
Quoting 64. chrisdscane:

no serious injuries or deaths. Thank God our prayers were heard.
thanks they listen to warnings and advice good job Bermuda take a bow
thanks for update doc good read
Quoting ricderr:
12Z ECMWF at 240 hours has a developing low heading towards the Gulf Coast.


how well have those long range models done so far......heck....florida would be devoid of life and buildings if they all had materialized


That's true, but the ECMWF does a pretty good job of predicting tropical cyclone formation.

The track and intensity will surely change with future runs.

But we have multiple models predicting development in the GOM.

I think the biggest question is how strong will the system become (just a rainy low pressure, T.D., T.S.)?
Quoting 72. win1gamegiantsplease:



That's the thing about building codes, they save lives but when a hurricane can do that to steel and this to a tree (albeit a softer wooded tree) there's not much you can do but hope the structure is solid.



Surprising how intact the house is in the background.
Euro, GEM, and GFS all put a low in basically the same location around the same time period. That's something we haven't seen all season in the GOM.

The GFS at 150 hours - ends up going into S. Florida.
We're also not talking about 300 hour runs. This low begins forming in just a few days.

Quoting 72. win1gamegiantsplease:



That's the thing about building codes, they save lives but when a hurricane can do that to steel and this to a tree (albeit a softer wooded tree) there's not much you can do but hope the structure is solid.




Palms have dense super network of fibers molded into one trunk, this makes them superior in strength like a dense rope. Have you ever seen what happens when someone with a gun tries to cut through a rope? It doesn't work out too well... The fiber bundle similarity between a rope and palm is one of superior strength. That's the idea behind fiber armor. Palm trees as a result are even harder to cut through yet are also flexible. I worked a land scape job, and trust me, it takes longer and more chain saw power to get through a palm tree than a standard tree. Obviously the strength varies from species to species, but trees like the royal palm have incredibly strong trunks.

But yes, building codes can reduce damage by quite bit, especially from more moderate hurricanes. However, category 4 and 5 hurricanes are still going to do a lot of severe damage even with good building codes. The difference though is that buildings with much better building codes are very safe to survive in providing you take shelter into an interior room at a low spot, even if the building receives damage. It can mean the difference between complete destruction of a structure, and just a damaged structure.

But yes, building codes can't safely eliminate severe damage during a high end hurricane, case in point Homestead Airforce Base, which had very strong structures, but suffered severe damage. In fact the damage to the airforce base is a good example of what true sustained winds above 145 mph is capable of. Although the very strong frame of the building would provide a fairly safe place still to prevent death and injury as long as you you take cover in an interior place.


Quoting 78. ricderr:

Let me tell ya sumpthin Win1, there is nothing soft about the wood inside that Coconut Palm...Grab an ax and take a swing....it will kill yer hands..:)


horizontally a monster with an axe...but vertically it splits pretty easy....still...that's winds of a cat 1 or 2 tornado to do that


And when those palms bend with the 'breeze', the vertical fibers separate-allowing a miniscule opening for a projectile to penetrate.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

LONG TERM...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:

12Z ECMWF at 240 hours has a developing low heading towards the Gulf Coast.


Pattern's gonna have to change A LOT for something like that to happen around the GOMEX. I feel like I am living in a desert climate right now.

And any significant changes look dismal. Short and long term forecasts here on the Gulf Coast call for zip in terms of precipitation.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
239 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Near term [through tonight]...
a short wave over the Midwest will rotate into the base of an
eastern U.S. Long wave trough which will help to drive a cold
front across the forecast area overnight. There is no
precipitation associated with this front. Clear skies and a
reinforced dry air mass will allow for a good diurnal range in
temps. This afternoon's mid 80s will fall to the lower 50s before
daybreak Sunday. The normally cooler areas in Alabama and Georgia north of
Dothan to Albany line will drop into the upper 40s.

Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
a slightly cooler airmass will prevail on Sunday and Monday behind
a dry cold frontal passage tonight. Dry weather is expected to
continue with temperatures within a few degrees of the seasonal
average.

Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
the prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. Pops still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.
Quoting 84. opal92nwf:


Surprising how intact the house is in the background.


Keep in mind that damage will always very because wind is a fluid not a solid body, and also density of air is also very low. Because of that, the process of blowing wind and how it transfers energy into solid objects is complicated. Some structures and plants will receive a lot more punishment than others for a given wind speed.

Which is exactly why that mindset of "My neighborhood was destroyed but my property was ok in the last hurricane, so I'll stay for the next one" is a terrible way of thought. The reason for why some buildings are destroyed and others survive isn't just the amount of wind speed and building design, but just the result of pure random outcome in terms of how much energy one structure receives during an event compared to another.

Windspeed can also vary as well, some regions will have notable worse damage than others even of the entire area had the eyewall.
I found these images pretty amazing. My brain's trying to figure out how the cars got flipped over and put in the garage?
Flippped first and blown into the garage most likely.

Andrew aftermath pic - crazy winds were needed to pull this off.

Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
the prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. Pops still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.



ahem...resident experts claimed 10 plus inches for florida this coming week
Quoting opal92nwf:

Pattern's gonna have to change A LOT for something like that to happen around the GOMEX. I feel like I am living in a desert climate right now.

And any significant changes look dismal. Short and long term forecasts here on the Gulf Coast call for zip in terms of precipitation.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
239 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Near term [through tonight]...
a short wave over the Midwest will rotate into the base of an
eastern U.S. Long wave trough which will help to drive a cold
front across the forecast area overnight. There is no
precipitation associated with this front. Clear skies and a
reinforced dry air mass will allow for a good diurnal range in
temps. This afternoon's mid 80s will fall to the lower 50s before
daybreak Sunday. The normally cooler areas in Alabama and Georgia north of
Dothan to Albany line will drop into the upper 40s.

Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
a slightly cooler airmass will prevail on Sunday and Monday behind
a dry cold frontal passage tonight. Dry weather is expected to
continue with temperatures within a few degrees of the seasonal
average.

Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
the prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. Pops still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.


Precipitation chances are much higher for South Florida.
50% Wednesday, 60% Thursday

At the precent time, the feeling is a low of some kind will most likely affect Southern Florida and not north Florida or the Panhandle region.
That could change of course.

From Dr. Master's blog
formation of a large area of low pressure that will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Gulf Coast, Western Cuba, and South Florida on Wednesday through Friday.
Quoting 83. Sfloridacat5:



That's true, but the ECMWF does a pretty good job of predicting tropical cyclone formation.

The track and intensity will surely change with future runs.

But we have multiple models predicting development in the GOM.

I think the biggest question is how strong will the system become (just a rainy low pressure, T.D., T.S.)?
I watch the Gulf/W-Caribbean carefully in October. Seen too many quick and potent spin ups. Hurricane Irene-99 , which did 800 million in damage and killed three directly , T.S Josephine-96 , Opal-95 , Marco-90 , Juan-85 , No Name and Alberto in 82...Josephine and Irene did a considerable amount of damage..A storm tide of 9.3 feet from Josephine at Suwanee.



Josi on top , Irene below.
Quoting ricderr:
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
the prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. Pops still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.



ahem...resident experts claimed 10 plus inches for florida this coming week


I'm just hoping we get some rain (1" would even be nice).
Only .93" at the house for the month so far.
1.24" in the city for the month and we're around 13-14" below normal for the year.

Ever since the first front came through at the beginning of the month the weather's been sunny and dry almost every day. We've had 2 rain days and 16 sunny days so the dry season is well established.

So it's going to take a tropical system to get us caught up on our rainfall.
Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:



Many people don't understand how strong the winds really were during Andrew.
Some believe gusts approached or exceeded 200mph.
Almost every anemometer stopped working once the winds topped 150 mph range.

Pic of cars flipped over by the winds. I was reading that one house had a neighbor's truck in his back yard.



Yeah, honestly there are some damage regions from Andrew that look like an EF4 tornado hit where trees and buildings look like they went through a paper shredder over the expanse of a whole neighborhood. When you consider the lack of vertical component to hurricane force winds, the fact that cars and other very heavy objects were picked up and launched through the air tells me that winds had to be extremely high.

Tornadoes have a vertical component, which can do things like that at a bit lower speeds hence the change to the EF scale, but for straight line winds to do things like that is insane. There are pictures of vehicles launched into the destroyed remains of homes in some cases. I can't imagine what it would be like to go through a hurricane that strong. I would imagine one could get ptsd like war veterans can get.
hmmmmm....here in the high dessert we're forecast to get more rain than most of florida


Quoting 1. CycloneOz:

Bermuda Gov. George Fergusson tweeted that police have reported no deaths or serious injuries and that damage has been extensive but not catastrophic.

That should put to rest any doubt that Bermuda is one tough cookie during a hurricane.

Bermuda will suffer damage in a storm...especially when it comes to trees and power lines. But that applies to anywhere.

It's the construction of homes, hotels and office structures that is beyond impressive.

America should take a few lessons from Bermuda's playbook and enact concrete based construction codes for coastal areas.

Compare Homestead, FL on the morning of August 25, 1992 to Bermuda on October 18, 2014...and the difference is plain to see.


While Bermuda does have very strong construction, that's just a terrible comparison. A hurricane like Andrew is in a different league wind force wise than a category 2 hurricane. There were strong structures that took heavy damage in Andrew as well. Although having much better building codes can make a difference between a damage building and complete destruction in a hurricane like Andrew.
If a storm of the same structure and intensity hit Bermuda, damage would still be very, very bad, but their strong building design mostly island wide would prevent complete obliteration of entire neighborhoods like what happened in parts of south Florida. It would not however spare them from still a very destructive and devastating event.

Building codes have sense greatly improved, most newer buildings are designed tp specs for hurricanes now. Although older ones are still at risk.
Quoting 92. ricderr:

Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
the prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. Pops still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.



ahem...resident experts claimed 10 plus inches for florida this coming week



I'm glad he's wrong most of the time, otherwise I would never get to enjoy the outdoors of Florida.
100. BDAwx
Managed to get in contact with my family in Bermuda. Had a little more roof damage to add to what Fay did last weekend. Rain was pouring in through the hole in the roof and came in through 'fun' surprising places in the ceiling during the northern eyewall. Everyone was safe, just exhausted spending most of the night alternating between bailing the house out and hunkering down.

Just got my PWS back up. Anemometer doesn't appear to have made it. The location is somewhat sheltered from easterly winds because there's a hill immediately to the east of it. More exposed to westerly winds, but they still have to go over the north shore hills first. The anemometer is about 5m above ground level, which is about 36m above sea level.

Peak 1-minute sustained winds in the Northern eyewall were easterly at 49mph gusting to 77mph. In the southern eyewall, they were west-northwesterly at 70mph gusting to 103mph. The anemometer failed shortly after midnight - it might have captured the strongest winds of the southern eyewall which were before midnight at the airport which is further east and would have gotten to them after this location.

Light winds in the eye shifted from east to south to west suggesting the center of Gonzalo passed to the west of this location.

Minimum pressure was 953.0mb at 9:31pm, and held there until 9:33pm. I'm working to retroactively add the data to wunderground, but the gusts appear to be missing.

Edit: the rain gauge was also malfunctioning, likely due to the high wind.
Managed to get in contact with my family in Bermuda. Had a little more roof damage to add to what Fay did last weekend. Rain was pouring in through the hole in the roof and came in through 'fun' surprising places in the ceiling during the northern eyewall. Everyone was safe, just exhausted spending most of the night alternating between bailing the house out and hunkering down.


glad to hear all are safe
I'm glad he's wrong most of the time, otherwise I would never get to enjoy the outdoors of Florida.



how you hitting them?
103. BDAwx
Quoting 101. ricderr:

glad to hear all are safe


Thanks, me too!
Quoting 102. ricderr:

I'm glad he's wrong most of the time, otherwise I would never get to enjoy the outdoors of Florida.



how you hitting them?


81 today. That's about normal for me. I played at Fox Hollow. It's a tough course so we played a little shorter. I'm usually between 75-85. The best part of the day was the weather. Absolutely perfect:)
Hurricane Ana is passing comfortably south of Bermuda Hawaii, leaving some residual rainfall and breezy conditions--a far cry from the initial projections that brought an upper-end Category 1 hurricane into the Big Island. Satellite imagery shows that Ana is a bit disorganized, with convection weighted to the east. This is the result of an upper-level low imparting higher shear and dry air into the circulation. Microwave imagery depicts a large, open eyewall. Conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for intensification over the next 2 days, but shear may begin to decrease thereafter. The HWRF makes this a powerful hurricane by day 5 as it curves northward. Genevieve redux?

Quoting 91. Sfloridacat5:

I found these images pretty amazing. My brain's trying to figure out how the cars got flipped over and put in the garage?
Flippped first and blown into the garage most likely.

Andrew aftermath pic - crazy winds were needed to pull this off.




If you're pulling those from that link I posted that photo with the big tree, devoid of any bark. That's stuff you saw in pictures from Joplin MO
Quoting 105. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Ana is passing comfortably south of Bermuda, leaving some residual rainfall and breezy conditions--a far cry from the initial projections that brought an upper-end Category 1 hurricane into the Big Island. Satellite imagery shows that Ana is a bit disorganized, with convection weighted to the east. This is the result of an upper-level low imparting higher shear and dry air into the circulation. Microwave imagery depicts a large, open eyewall. Conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for intensification over the next 2 days, but shear may begin to decrease thereafter. The HWRF makes this a powerful hurricane by day 5 as it curves northward. Genevieve redux?



Bermuda ???????????????
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Ana is passing comfortably south of Bermuda,

Huh, didn't know Bermuda was actually in the Pacific. And here I thought Gonzalo was an Atlantic storm.
81 today. That's about normal for me. I played at Fox Hollow. It's a tough course so we played a little shorter. I'm usually between 75-85. The best part of the day was the weather. Absolutely perfect:)


nice.....i used to hit a bucket at lunch everyday and play at least twice a week...then darn kids came into my life....someday...LOL
Huh, didn't know Bermuda was actually in the Pacific. And here I thought Gonzalo was an Atlantic storm.



not to worry trop./...we understood what you said
Huh, didn't know Bermuda was actually in the Pacific. And here I thought Gonzalo was an Atlantic storm.


"huh" they must teach that word in english class now
Quoting 107. superpete:



Bermuda ???????????????
Quoting 108. WeatherNerdPR:


Huh, didn't know Bermuda was actually in the Pacific. And here I thought Gonzalo was an Atlantic storm.
Quoting 110. ricderr:

Huh, didn't know Bermuda was actually in the Pacific. And here I thought Gonzalo was an Atlantic storm.



not to worry trop./...we understood what you said

Lol, fixed.
That's stuff you saw in pictures from Joplin MO



oops......saw those and figured a tornado must have passed through with andrew which is more than possible...
I was just joking. Tough crowd today...
Quoting 109. ricderr:

81 today. That's about normal for me. I played at Fox Hollow. It's a tough course so we played a little shorter. I'm usually between 75-85. The best part of the day was the weather. Absolutely perfect:)


nice.....i used to hit a bucket at lunch everyday and play at least twice a week...then darn kids came into my life....someday...LOL


I was quite good in my 20's, then marriage and kids came around. My last child is now gone so I'm back to playing 3-4 times per week. And I like to get on the water and do some fishing too.
89. I know, it's amazing isn't it? Way better than 99% humidity, 89F heat.
Quoting 106. win1gamegiantsplease:



If you're pulling those from that link I posted that photo with the big tree, devoid of any bark. That's stuff you saw in pictures from Joplin MO


There was a local liquor store in Port Charlotte that had 2 15' 11,000lb U haul trucks parked out across the street from it before Hurricane Charley. One ended up in the center of the store 100' away, and the other in the neighborhood behind it. It's amazing what wind can do.

The truck is literally sitting in the center of the store:

Quoting 111. ricderr:

Huh, didn't know Bermuda was actually in the Pacific. And here I thought Gonzalo was an Atlantic storm.


"huh" they must teach that word in english class now


Reminds me of the George Lopez show
Reminds me of the George Lopez show



LOL
Trudy was rapdly intensifying before your landfall : / . if it would stay in ocean for more 12 hours, was a at least minimal hurricane (75 mph). She already had a CDO.
Quoting 117. charlottefl:



There was a local liquor store in Port Charlotte that had 2 15' 11,000lb U haul trucks parked out across the street from it before Hurricane Charley. One ended up in the center of the store 100' away, and the other in the neighborhood behind it. It's amazing what wind can do.

The truck is literally sitting in the center of the store:




Yeah Charley did some incredible things as well. It's likely such extreme wind effects there in Charley and in Andrew and other systems is the result of mesovortices in the eyewall which are well documented and can cause much higher winds over a small region for a period of time. These are likely to be more frequent and more severe in strong hurricane eyewalls. Using the principle of shear and turbulence, high res modeling of strong hurricane eyewalls show such mesovortices quite well. They in some way resemble tornadoes, but aren't tornadoes. A mesocyclone that's like a mini-hurricane within the hurricane may be the best way to relate it. Although I don't know exactly.

While its entirely true that hurricanes produce mostly weaker tornadoes due the lack of instability from all the rain and a lack of cold air aloft in a tropical cyclone, it can be deceiving in that we may tend to think then that more extreme winds don't happen on smaller scales in a hurricane. While the mesovortices aren't actually tornadoes, they can have locally much stronger winds leading to extreme damage. They don't have a vertical wind component, but the much stronger wind combined with rapid change in wind speed and direction over a short period of time likely causes the localized damage that looks more like a strong tornado hit, even if one didn't.
Quoting 113. ricderr:

That's stuff you saw in pictures from Joplin MO



oops......saw those and figured a tornado must have passed through with andrew which is more than possible...


Clarification? (sorry I'm out of it today) I meant those pictures that SFlorida posted came from a link about Andrew's winds, one picture from it he didn't post is a tree on the corner covered in power lines and stripped of bark with a flipped car in the foreground. Looks like a picture taken after the Joplin tornado.

Quoting 122. win1gamegiantsplease:



Clarification? (sorry I'm out of it today) I meant those pictures that SFlorida posted came from a link about Andrew's winds, one picture from it he didn't post is a tree on the corner covered in power lines and stripped of bark with a flipped car in the foreground. Looks like a picture taken after the Joplin tornado.




Hell might as well

Quoting 85. Sfloridacat5:

Euro, GEM, and GFS all put a low in basically the same location around the same time period. That's something we haven't seen all season in the GOM.

The GFS at 150 hours - ends up going into S. Florida.
We're also not talking about 300 hour runs. This low begins forming in just a few days.


I guess we are back to the 10 day model posting!!!
Good evening all.

I've posted a new video discussion for those interested:

Potential for Subtropical Rain Event in Eastern Gulf of Mexico Region October 25-30
I guess we are back to the 10 day model posting!!!



someday one will be right....
Quoting 111. ricderr:

Huh, didn't know Bermuda was actually in the Pacific. And here I thought Gonzalo was an Atlantic storm.


"huh" they must teach that word in english class now

And "like" is a conjunction.

Adjectives like "crazy" are now adverbs.

Well, like, ya know. English is an evolving language. It .. ya know.. like.. changes. Sometimes the change is crazy fast.
The blog after a hurricane is like the weather after one has passed: calm

Quoting 127. ricderr:

I guess we are back to the 10 day model posting!!!



someday one will be right....


...and will never hear the end of it
And "like" is a conjunction.

Adjectives like "crazy" are now adverbs.

Well, like, ya know. English is an evolving language. It .. ya know.. like.. changes. Sometimes the change is crazy fast.



very well said
..and will never hear the end of it


cus we sure as heck are supposed to not remember...the dozens of times previous when they were wrong
Gonzalo moving fast at 38 mph now
Thanks Levi for your tidbit on what may develop from moisture & low pressure in the WGOM/NCarib...I've been wondering about that. I see it will be a rain event, not tropical storm development due to factors you point out. Jeff also says 'rain in South Florida.' Will be interesting to see what comes of it all. Florida is capable of handling a lot of rain and it's natural for our state to get rain. The problem is always due to development of properties that were filled and built on which go back decades. Here in New Smyrna Beach we have a subdivision which has tidal waterways running through it; the homes were built in the 60s. Now years later, they are flooding with heavy rain events due to the nature of their geography. A co-worker lives in one of these homes and has decided to raise the floor inside her home in order to avoid flooding again.
This is Trudy--not in the GOM/BOC yet!


GOM -- still pretty quiet on the western front!
From the Miami NWS Disco...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
but moving that direction ... will watch it


Quoting 134. Chicklit:

This is Trudy--not in the GOM/BOC yet!


GOM -- still pretty quiet on the western front!



Hurricane GONZALO winds 90 mph at 6:34 PM EDT on October 18, 2014 moving fast at 36 nne mph
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

Hydrus you forgot Cindy 2005
How did I forget Cindy of 2005.?
Possible Nor'easter Next Week
Heavy rain, strong winds, flooding, high surf and beach erosion are possible next week.

the frist Nor'easter of this fall
141. beell
Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Lol, fixed.


Quoting 105. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Ana is passing comfortably south of Bermuda


Well, Hawaii is AOA 19N. Bermuda at 32N. Comfortably S by a wide margin.
NHC mentions BOC and Eastern Atlantic.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some
gradual development of the system will be possible after that time
while it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over warmer
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 138. hydrus:

How did I forget Cindy of 2005.?
Cindy hit the same part of L.A that Katrina later hit.I would post it but my computer is down.

Summary as of Sat Oct 18 - 7.00pm:

Weather conditions have abated, but there is damage island-wide from Gonzalo
At 6pm approximately 18,685 customers without power....12,000 been restored so far as we had 30,700 out at peak of storm. BELCO said some 70 poles down, and great deal of work to be done.
Transportation: Causeway is open, airport likely to open on Sunday afternoon, ferries to operate on Sunday, no word on buses yet as routes being assessed
Police confirm no loss of life or serious injuries during storm
TBI opens up all their WiFiZone Hotspots to the public for free for the next few days.



Reading through the rest of it, there was more roof damage at the airport but it is expected to open Sunday afternoon. Many residential buildings also had roof damage. They are giving out tarps. The soldiers are out assisting with clean up. The bridge at the causeway was damaged, reducing the flow of traffic to one lane. It is open again.
Quoting 143. Tropicsweatherpr:

NHC mentions BOC.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some
gradual development of the system will be possible after that time
while it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Tropical Storm Josephine in the Gulf of Mexico on October 7
Formed October 4, 1996
Dissipated October 13, 1996
(Extratropical after October 8, 1996
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 70 mph
Lowest pressure 981 mbar 28.97 inHg
Fatalities 3 indirect
Damage $130 million (1996 USD)
Areas affected Southeastern United States, Mid-Atlantic, Northeastern United States, Atlantic Canada

Quoting 145. Skyepony:


Summary as of Sat Oct 18 - 7.00pm:

Weather conditions have abated, but there is damage island-wide from Gonzalo
At 6pm approximately 18,685 customers without power....12,000 been restored so far as we had 30,700 out at peak of storm. BELCO said some 70 poles down, and great deal of work to be done.
Transportation: Causeway is open, airport likely to open on Sunday afternoon, ferries to operate on Sunday, no word on buses yet as routes being assessed
Police confirm no loss of life or serious injuries during storm
TBI opens up all their WiFiZone Hotspots to the public for free for the next few days.



Reading through the rest of it, there was more roof damage at the airport but it is expected to open Sunday afternoon. Many residential buildings also had roof damage. They are giving out tarps. The soldiers are out assisting with clean up. The bridge at the causeway was damaged, reducing the flow of traffic to one lane. It is open again.
Feels good to hear some good news for a change, especially with all the bad going on right now.


Night time view from NEXSAT..
Quoting 144. washingtonian115:

Cindy hit the same part of L.A that Katrina later hit.I would post it but my computer is down.
I was referring to October storms on one post, and Wilma and Emily striking between Cancun and Cozumel on the other post...When did I mention LA.?
Good news and bad news ... with a late good night greeting from Germany.

Hurricane Gonzalo: Bermuda 'bruised' by direct hit
18 October 2014 Last updated at 22:55 GMT
Bermuda was "bruised" but came out of the storm better than expected, Premier Michael Dunkley said in a radio broadcast. ...

Nicaragua rains: Downpours leave 22 dead
BBC, 18 October 2014 Last updated at 23:45 GMT

Evening all.... wow... great video from the NASA observatory.... all that's missing is the clash of the titans music in the background.... it's fascinating to watch the front fray and then hook Gonzalo onto its tail...

I'm very glad to hear damage wasn't as bad in Bermuda as it could have been. I think having Fay pass as it did went a long way to ensuring that anybody who might have been complacent about this bad storm was alert and prepared.

Hopefully we will stick with the low death toll and not have very much more damage in Canada.

I also note Ana seems to be skirting Hawaii to the south. While it would have been cool to have a second historical landfall on the Big Island, I'm glad residents don't have to go through another storm. [I bet they mostly are relieved.] Ana still makes for an interesting phenomenon.

Also noting that we're supposed to get just the energy from Trudy into the GoM, not any kind of circulation or so. I guess this means we won't be getting a TS Trudy in the ATL any time soon.... lol ...
Quoting 134. Chicklit:

This is Trudy--not in the GOM/BOC yet!


GOM -- still pretty quiet on the western front!

This imagery makes it pretty obvious how the energy is going to get across the isthmus. I suppose when we look at a storm symbol we sometimes forget that there is a rotating mass of clouds around that symbolic point. It seems pretty straightforward to expect clouds rotating north there to end up in the Bay of Campeche....
Technical discussion by Environment Canada on Gonzalo. The discussions are issued 3 hours after the NHC discussions so this one is more timely. I like that they forecast the central pressure. The next discussion will be issued at 2 a.m. EDT.

Note that Environment Canada has the center of Gonzalo 0.2 degrees west of the NHC position for the same time, and 1 mb lower pressure.
Quoting 155. BahaHurican:

This imagery makes it pretty obvious how the energy is going to get across the isthmus. I suppose when we look at a storm symbol we sometimes forget that there is a rotating mass of clouds around that symbolic point. It seems pretty straightforward to expect clouds rotating north there to end up in the Bay of Campeche....

the question a few days ago was what about the mountains.
Levi explained in today's Tropical Tidbit that it's the moisture and low that will survive as part of a monsoonal type thing and maybe combine with the same in north Caribbean /// at least that's what I think he intimated/said. also there are other factors /fronts coming from north that will help fuel the system and also keep it relatively south. Guess you had to be there! lol -- forgive my rambling. More tired than usual tonight after actually walking 18 holes on the course today. yay! goodnight.
Good evening

I'd just like to thank the blog for an extremely interesting evening of lurking last night.

I'd also like to say that I'm so thankful that Bermuda came out of that mess a lot better than I thought they had.

And lastly, after watching the effects of Gonzalo last night, I am feeling so fortunate that it took that little turn and all we dealt with was that bit of rain!

I am still on crutches, but a small price to pay in the long run, isn't it? My lesson learned on that one was not to get myself into a panic mode and just take it one step at a time. (Excuse the pun)

Lindy
Hurricane GONZALO
8:00 PM AST Sat Oct 18
Location: 41.0°N 58.5°W
Moving: NNE at 39 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

i nevere see a hurricane before move at 40 mph before
Oh, and one more thing.

My brother in Newfoundland has again found another excuse to tease me about sending weather his way! ;-)


wow more storm to come!! buzy october this year
Quoting 160. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Oh, and one more thing.

My brother in Newfoundland has again found another excuse to tease me about sending weather his way! ;-)


Which town?
Quoting 163. DonnieBwkGA:



Which town?


Just outside of St. Johns.
High temperature and dewpoint in St. johns. 18 C is pretty good for them, especially in the middle of the night, and with the normal max being 11 C

Especially good since the daily record for Oct 18 is 17.8 C--record heat at midnight!

Tornado Warning/Watch between Argentina (Missiones State) and Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul State).
Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

Gonzalo's ACE as of 11 p.m. EDT is 23.8875

Season total is 63.0875
Quoting 165. DonnieBwkGA:

High temperature and dewpoint in St. johns. 18 C is pretty good for them, especially in the middle of the night, and with the normal max being 11 C

Especially good since the daily record for Oct 18 is 17.8 C--record heat at midnight!






That is very warm for this time of year!

I remember when I was living in Whitehorse and my other half was here in St. Thomas, we had an evening where there was 125 degree difference between us. I moved down here shortly after that! ;-)
Quoting 167. DonnieBwkGA:

Gonzalo's ACE as of 11 p.m. EDT is 23.8875

Season total is 63.0875



Gonzalo is being a show off for the ACE for 2014
Florida St. 31, Notre Dame 27, -- my guess that is where most of Florida is tonight.
That or sleeping early after last nights show..... 77.8F here today. 5th day in the high 70's.
Quoting 155. BahaHurican:

This imagery makes it pretty obvious how the energy is going to get across the isthmus. I suppose when we look at a storm symbol we sometimes forget that there is a rotating mass of clouds around that symbolic point. It seems pretty straightforward to expect clouds rotating north there to end up in the Bay of Campeche....
Bay of Coatzacoalcos.
Aqua pass of Gonzalo a little earlier.

Quoting Chicklit:
This is Trudy--not in the GOM/BOC yet!


GOM -- still pretty quiet on the western front!
Trudy is that bright one to the left, another low is forming from the right bright one. Someone was mentioning that the whole thing is going to split.
Aqua pass of Ana..
Modis pass of Ana..
Quoting Tazmanian:



Gonzalo is being a show off for the ACE for 2014


Heck, that's two-thirds of the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
Bent but not broken


Bermuda

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-29679079

Well, it seems like almost everyone has gone to bed tonight. It appears that Trudy's moisture is going to get into the Gulf and combine with tropical moisture from the south to create some kind of low over the next seven to ten days. Unfortunately for me, the high is going to be way too strong to allow anything to get as far north as Alabama, where we really need the rain. The low/tropical mess is going to stay south and give Cuba and Florida, from Scott's house south, a good bit of rain. Looks like the Bahamas might get in on this also. When the low finally does get out of the Gulf, a nor'easter may be next on the weather menu. I sure wish it would get up here at least a little but that looks pretty unlikely.
Bye, Gonzalo.

Quoting 176. CybrTeddy:



Heck, that's two-thirds of the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.



i no thats why its being a show off
TropicalAnalystwx13 says goodbye, but the Avalon Peninsula says hello!
Nice X-flare



Quoting 97. ricderr:

hmmmmm....here in the high dessert we're forecast to get more rain than most of florida




High dessert?

Is that rum cake?
Quoting 182. swflurker:

Nice X-flare






umm...did u see the size of sunspot 2192?
Quoting 178. sar2401:
Well, it seems like almost everyone has gone to bed tonight. It appears that Trudy's moisture is going to get into the Gulf and combine with tropical moisture from the south to create some kind of low over the next seven to ten days. Unfortunately for me, the high is going to be way too strong to allow anything to get as far north as Alabama, where we really need the rain. The low/tropical mess is going to stay south and give Cuba and Florida, from Scott's house south, a good bit of rain. Looks like the Bahamas might get in on this also. When the low finally does get out of the Gulf, a nor'easter may be next on the weather menu. I sure wish it would get up here at least a little but that looks pretty unlikely.
Is the most recent Euro run out of whack? It shows it coming towards our neck of the woods.
The shear in the GOM doesnt look favorable for the next 5 days.
Hurricane GONZALO RSS Feed icon
5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 19
Location: 46.3°N 52.9°W
Moving: NE at 52 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
Good Morning

For now GFS/ECMWF are split on whether or not the soon to be AOI will get trapped "A La Fay" by an building high in about a week or so and turn back into the GOM or head out to the NE.

850MB VORT slowly consolidating in the extreme S BOC:



This blog is dead without a few of our Florida regulars.
I hope they weren't permanently turned away from the blog.
They haven't been in here the past couple days.

Quoting 185. WaterWitch11:



umm...did u see the size of sunspot 2192?

For comparison, from spaceweather.com, here's 2192 yesterday with a picture of Earth inserted for scale. Definitely will be something to watch in the coming days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located east of Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is developing over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands. This system could possibly acquire subtropical
characteristics by the middle of the week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
This blog is dead without a few of our Florida regulars.
I hope they weren't permanently turned away from the blog.
They haven't been in here the past couple days.



Likely burned out from Gonzalo.


what happern to hurricane GONZALO its moving to fast its going to be off the hurricane map soon!
i am so happy to be back home again i had a great time at Bermuda for a few days!!


Southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Frost Advisory
Statement as of 4:00 AM EDT on October 19, 2014
...Frost advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am EDT Monday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a frost advisory...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am EDT Monday.

* Locations...coastal Connecticut...portions of northeastern New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley...and southwest Suffolk County.

* Hazards...frost.

* Temperatures...lower to mid 30s.

* Timing...late tonight through early Monday morning.

* Impacts...tender vegetation may be damaged by the cold temperatures.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Quoting WxLogic:


Likely burned out from Gonzalo.

No, it wasn't that.

They weren't even in here the day Gonzalo made landfall.

What happened was there was so much complaining about Florida bloggers posting information about Florida and GOM systems, that they left.

That along with complaining about posting long range models and making them feel bad (condesending tone) for doing it.

Even 4-5 days before Gonzalo got close to Bermuda people got mad if someone posted an image of a posible GOM system.

Some members felt that every single post had to be an image or loop about Gonzalo or they would complain.
Hurricane Gonzalo is quickly moving away from Bermuda and is passing near Newfoundland on Sunday.

Gonzalo is weakening and is now a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph maximum sustained winds.
I'm from Florida and I was keeping an eye on both situations. This is a weather blog and if other bloggers are upset at Florida bloggers for posting maps or models of other areas of interest, well they know where the ignore button is. Plus there have been other bloggers on here talking about winter and snow conditions coming to there home state when it doesn't even pan out, while us bloggers are watching a possible developing system. Works both ways.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:

No, it wasn't that.

They weren't even in here the day Gonzalo made landfall.

What happened was there was so much complaining about Florida bloggers posting information about Florida and GOM systems that they left.

That along with complaining about posting long range models and making them feel bad (condesending tone) for doing it.

Even 4-5 days before Gonzalo got close to Bermuda people got mad if someone posted an image of a posible GOM system.

Some members felt that every single post had to be an image or loop about Gonzalo or they would complain.


here the hurricane
Trepassey, Canada winds 60 mph from Hurricane Gonzalo this morning!!


Still slowly traveling NW or 320 degrees at 6-7 mph. Ana is doing her own thing, staying to the right of the forecasted track. Still waiting for the much anticipated turn to the west northwest.


credit: Chris_in_Tampa - Storm2k
Summary as of Sun Oct 19 - 8.30am:

Good News: Police confirm no loss of life or serious injuries during the storm, and we have a hurricane baby...with a baby boy born during the height of the storm
BELCO: At 11:30pm Saturday, 11,904 customers without power, down from about 31,000 at the height. BELCO anticipate remaining work will be "labour-intensive and slow going" however 12 linemen from the Caribbean will be flying in to assist.
Transportation: Causeway is open, ferries to operate on Sunday, no word on buses yet as routes being assessed
Airport: Set to open at 5pm today
Tarpaulin: Govt. providing tarpaulin to those with damage, collect from Warwick Camp from 8am - 8pm
Schools: Only confirmed one so far is Saltus, who will re-open at St John%u2019s Rd on Monday, while the Cavendish campus suffered some roof damage, so will remain closed. News on Govt schools expected on Sunday
Communication: TBI opens up all their 30 wi-fi hotspots to the public for free for the next few days, Digicel at 75% and will fly in equipment & experts to help with repairs


Quoting 193. WxLogic:



Likely burned out from Gonzalo.

Some of us blogged so much on that we needed to catch up on sleep too..
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's a beautiful 56 degrees with a high expected in the upper seventies in west central Louisiana. I love Fall!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana fritters, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!
Quoting 202. hurricanes2018:

Trepassey, Canada winds 60 mph from Hurricane Gonzalo this morning!!


Wonder what the winds will be when it reaches Scotland on Tuesday morning. The UK Met Office are predicting 60 mph, but emphasising uncertainty.
Good Morning!

Gonzalo moving out at 52MPH, giving far eastern Canada a glancing blow! Still an 85MPH hurricane this morning.

Hope the Fay-Gonzalo aftermath in Bermuda is going OK - looks like nice weather for the cleanup.

Might be another interesting week in the tropics!

Possible action in the GOM and far eastern Atlantic.... to keep an "eye" on!

Will we reach the "H" or "I" in the Atlanic Basin ...... ??



DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES (Revised)

Locations impacted by more than one named hurricane, during a hurricane season.
All of these named tropical Cyclones were designated hurricanes during their lifetime, and caused
hurricane force wind gusts during landfall, in the listed areas:

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes!



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands (Gustav and Ike impacted south Louisiana coast at final Landfalls!)

2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - FRANCES, JEANNE - Bahama Islands, Grand Bahama Island
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a strong T.S. in Louisiana)

1999 - DENNIS, FLOYD - North Carolina (Dennis was a hurricane, made final NC landfall as a strong T.S.)
1999 - JOSE, LENNY - Leeward Islands

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida
1995 - LUIS, MARILYN - Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands


Source: NHC, WU, WU Members Thank You!


Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??
NOAA has issued their last advisory on Trudy. There is little in the news about the damage & death this has brought..

Flash Flood in Nicaragua on Sunday, 19 October, 2014 at 03:58 (03:58 AM) UTC.
Description
Twenty-two people are dead and 32,000 are homeless after torrential rain caused flooding near Nicaragua's capital Managua. Days of torrential rains in Nicaragua has left 22 people dead and 32,000 homeless. Nine of the victims died when a retaining wall collapsed and flattened four shacks near the capital Managua, government spokeswoman Rosario Murillo said on Saturday. The report said 4,544 homes were damaged or destroyed by floods or were evacuated due to flood risk. The rains impacted 17 departments in the country and 5,630 people are in temporary shelters and receiving food aid, Murillo said.
There was a significant oil spill out of a pipeline in Louisiana.
Quoting 209. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning!

Gonzalo moving out at 52MPH, giving far eastern Canada a glancing blow! Still an 85MPH hurricane this morning.

Hope the Fay-Gonzalo aftermath in Bermuda is going OK - looks like nice weather for the cleanup.

Might be another interesting week in the tropics!

Possible action in the GOM and far eastern Atlantic.... to keep an "eye" on!




Impressive that it still has that much punch that far north, although not unheard of.
Quoting 97. ricderr:

hmmmmm....here in the high dessert we're forecast to get more rain than most of florida





Wow... 8.2" for Key West in the next 7 days!!! With Fantasy Fest going on all week, the streets will be flowing with body paint... Hmmmm.

Link
GEM Model and it's tricks, wants a hurricane or strong tropical storm about 500 miles east of Florida and a strong tropical storm in the BOC.
Good morning everybody!

9 years ago today:
Interesting cone from Ana.

Quoting 215. ChillinInTheKeys:



Wow... 8.2" for Key West in the next 7 days!!! With Fantasy Fest going on all week, the streets will be flowing with body paint... Hmmmm.

Link


I hope you don't have to change your handle to SwimmingInTheKeys!!
Satellite image of GONZALO


I can't believe it's still there, but it is, though not for long. It's been a week since we started tracking him.
Quoting 209. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning!

Gonzalo moving out at 52MPH, giving far eastern Canada a glancing blow! Still an 85MPH hurricane this morning.

Hope the Fay-Gonzalo aftermath in Bermuda is going OK - looks like nice weather for the cleanup.

Might be another interesting week in the tropics!

Possible action in the GOM and far eastern Atlantic.... to keep an "eye" on!

Will we reach the "H" or "I" in the Atlanic Basin ...... ??






If we do... watch that I storm.
Quoting 217. Ameister12:

Good morning everybody!

9 years ago today:




Wilma the day she reached peak intensity.
its going to be a buzy october this year for tropical storm and hurricane!!
Are there any guidelines about what we can post today? After all, we were all looking at the big hurricane Gonzalo, while 22 people lost their lives and tens of thousands homeless in central America.
Quoting 210. Stormwatch247:

DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES (Revised)

Locations impacted by more than one named hurricane, during a hurricane season.
All of these named tropical Cyclones were designated hurricanes during their lifetime, and caused
hurricane force wind gusts during landfall, in the listed areas:

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes!



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands (Gustav and Ike impacted SW Louisiana at final Landfalls!)

2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - FRANCES, JEANNE - Bahama Islands, Grand Bahama Island
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a strong T.S. in Louisiana)

1999 - DENNIS, FLOYD - North Carolina (Dennis was a hurricane, made final NC landfall as a strong T.S.)
1999 - JOSE, LENNY - Leeward Islands

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida
1995 - LUIS, MARILYN - Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands


Source: NHC, WU, WU Members Thank You!


Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??


Did a little research just for the sake of boredom.

In 1999, Irene was a Cat 2 while off the Outer Banks. It didn't make landfall but it made an impact. Dunno if that would count though. In 1996, Hortense and Bertha both effected Puerto Rico.

I believe that's all that is missing. :P
Trudy still has a floater for itself.
Visible image
Prediction three days ago for Gonzalo:
19/1200Z 46.5N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

Actual position & strength at 1200 UTC:
19/1200Z 47.8N 50.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
(at 1500 UTC: 49.0N 47.3W)
Quoting 230. Articuno:



Did a little research just for the sake of boredom.

In 1999, Irene was a Cat 2 while off the Outer Banks. It didn't make landfall but it made an impact. Dunno if that would count though. In 1996, Hortense and Bertha both effected Puerto Rico.

I believe that's all that is missing. :P


There was bonnie in 98
Interesting weather situation here in the Costa Rica mountains -- my new PWS says the temperature is 74, with a dewpoint of 76. Feels like it, too! And with intermittent sunshine, no rain (yet!).
Quoting 230. Articuno:



Did a little research just for the sake of boredom.

In 1999, Irene was a Cat 2 while off the Outer Banks. It didn't make landfall but it made an impact. Dunno if that would count though. In 1996, Hortense and Bertha both effected Puerto Rico.

I believe that's all that is missing. :P


The list comprises of storms that have actually made landfall as hurricanes

Irene, as you said, did not make landfall in NC
Likewise, Hortense did not make landfall in PR
Quoting 236. flsky:

This is a weather blog. Please keep your comments relevant.


Don't bite the hand that feeds you!
Well, unlike a few of the forecasts, I am leaning more of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf this week. ONe reason is that the shear right now is very high, but should lessen into the end of the week. Also, the troughing would move any system to the east or east northeast all week. With a possible strong high developing over the North America, this could cause the pressures to drop in the Gulf and Caribbean. That little dip in the jet stream could make a big difference



I don't believe it will be a "rain event", but a full tropical system.

This is my own opinion and not to be inferred as an official forecast.
Quoting 226. hurricanes2018:

its going to be a buzy october this year for tropical storm and hurricane!!
buzy?
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Wow... 8.2" for Key West in the next 7 days!!! With Fantasy Fest going on all week, the streets will be flowing with body paint... Hmmmm.

Link



LOL
I thought the link was for the rain graphics!
Quoting 210. Stormwatch247:

DOUBLE-HIT HURRICANES (Revised)

Locations impacted by more than one named hurricane, during a hurricane season.
All of these named tropical Cyclones were designated hurricanes during their lifetime, and caused
hurricane force wind gusts during landfall, in the listed areas:

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes!



2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda

2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands (Gustav and Ike impacted SW Louisiana at final Landfalls!)

2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - FRANCES, JEANNE - Bahama Islands, Grand Bahama Island
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a strong T.S. in Louisiana)

1999 - DENNIS, FLOYD - North Carolina (Dennis was a hurricane, made final NC landfall as a strong T.S.)
1999 - JOSE, LENNY - Leeward Islands

1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida
1995 - LUIS, MARILYN - Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands


Source: NHC, WU, WU Members Thank You!


Are there any recent double-hit HURRICANES not on this list??




In 2008 Hanna formed ( was named ) right over Provo here in the Turks and Caicos Islands and then it went south to Hispaniola weakened to a named tropical storm, returned as such right through the TCI, and then Cat. 3 Ike hit us ....all this was within SEVEN days!
236. flsky
3:48 PM GMT on October 19, 2014

This is a weather blog. Please keep your comments relevant.

Quoting 205. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's a beautiful 56 degrees with a high expected in the upper seventies in west central Louisiana. I love Fall!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana fritters, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!

She has posted this for a long time without it being removed or banned, and begins the comment on a weather related subject.
Quoting 238. Grothar:

Well, unlike a few of the forecasts, I am leaning more of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf this week. ONe reason is that the shear right now is very high, but should lessen into the end of the week. Also, the troughing would move any system to the east or east northeast all week. With a possible strong high developing over the North America, this could cause the pressures to drop in the Gulf and Caribbean. That little dip in the jet stream could make a big difference



I don't believe it will be a "rain event", but a full tropical system.

This is my own opinion and not to be inferred as an offical forecast.

Latest GFS at 105 hours..

Quoting flsky:
This is a weather blog. Please keep your comments relevant.


Local Weather and sustenance from a sweetheart. What could be more relevant.
I.R at 126 HRS..

Seems like this could be a more south Florida event, I know it is a ways out though. But once in the eastern Gulf depending on how the setup is it could be drawn a little further north then what the models indicate.Wait and see I guess.
Quoting Grothar:
Well, unlike a few of the forecasts, I am leaning more of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf this week. ONe reason is that the shear right now is very high, but should lessen into the end of the week. Also, the troughing would move any system to the east or east northeast all week. With a possible strong high developing over the North America, this could cause the pressures to drop in the Gulf and Caribbean. That little dip in the jet stream could make a big difference



I don't believe it will be a "rain event", but a full tropical system.

This is my own opinion and not to be inferred as an offical forecast.
248. beell
Quoting 238. Grothar:

Well, unlike a few of the forecasts, I am leaning more of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf this week. ONe reason is that the shear right now is very high, but should lessen into the end of the week. Also, the troughing would move any system to the east or east northeast all week. With a possible strong high developing over the North America, this could cause the pressures to drop in the Gulf and Caribbean. That little dip in the jet stream could make a big difference



I don't believe it will be a "rain event", but a full tropical system.

This is my own opinion and not to be inferred as an offical forecast.



I agree with you, Gro (fwiw). Anything that moves out of the BOC would be purely tropical. It would be towards next weekend before the cold mid-level temps aloft associated with a strong phasing shortwave begin a transition to a hybrid or sub-trop. All that would more than likely get started after the surface low is east of Florida.


06Z 500mb temps-valid Saturday, 10/25
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located east of Newfoundland.

1. A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Quoting 238. Grothar:

Well, unlike a few of the forecasts, I am leaning more of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf this week. ONe reason is that the shear right now is very high, but should lessen into the end of the week. Also, the troughing would move any system to the east or east northeast all week. With a possible strong high developing over the North America, this could cause the pressures to drop in the Gulf and Caribbean. That little dip in the jet stream could make a big difference



I don't believe it will be a "rain event", but a full tropical system.

This is my own opinion and not to be inferred as an offical forecast.



The GFS says to S FL, and the Euro to N fl. Living in Tampa, I'm hoping they don"t split the difference.
GFS 144..

Will be interesting to watch :-) The season that won't give up without a fight.

Thanks to all here for the great posts during Gonzalo. I was lurking (and enjoying).

Oahu dodges another bullet.

Quoting 238. Grothar:

Well, unlike a few of the forecasts, I am leaning more of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf this week. ONe reason is that the shear right now is very high, but should lessen into the end of the week. Also, the troughing would move any system to the east or east northeast all week. With a possible strong high developing over the North America, this could cause the pressures to drop in the Gulf and Caribbean. That little dip in the jet stream could make a big difference



I don't believe it will be a "rain event", but a full tropical system.

This is my own opinion and not to be inferred as an offical forecast.

Its interesting that it is the Euro that develops this system in the BOC more than the GFS does
Ana is drenching Oahu this morning as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Recon supports a borderline hurricane, with flight-level winds near 70kt and surface winds near 60kt.

Quoting 235. Hurricanes101:



The list comprises of storms that have actually made landfall as hurricanes

Irene, as you said, did not make landfall in NC
Likewise, Hortense did not make landfall in PR


Hortense did make landfall in PR

However, Bertha did not
I'm still on the fence about a gulf or Caribbean storm. GEOS-5 has a broad low form this coming week in the Caribbean but doesn't really pull together til a week from today.



Then it does a Tampa to Jacksonville trip across FL on Monday.

Near the Azores.

AL, 92, 2014101912, , BEST, 0, 326N, 201W, 40, 1000, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 60, 120, 1010, 300, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Levi had video yesterday showing the scenario that could happen. One of them was bringing the system north as it got close to Florida. class='blogquote'>Quoting Skyepony:
I'm still on the fence about a gulf or Caribbean storm. GEOS-5 has a broad low form this coming week in the Caribbean but doesn't really pull together til a week from today.



Then it does a Tampa to Jacksonville trip across FL on Monday.

NOAA moved Trudy from the EPAC floater list to the Atlantic...
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm still on the fence about a gulf or Caribbean storm. GEOS-5 has a broad low form this coming week in the Caribbean but doesn't really pull together til a week from today.



Then it does a Tampa to Jacksonville trip across FL on Monday.




You can bet that whatever the wettest scenario is for S Florida this coming weekend will be the result. I have reservations for camping in the N Everglades this weekend. We can use the rain so I am not canceling my reservations. LOL
Quoting beell:


I agree with you, Gro (fwiw). Anything that moves out of the BOC would be purely tropical. It would be towards next weekend before the cold mid-level temps aloft associated with a strong phasing shortwave begin a transition to a hybrid or sub-trop. All that would more than likely get started after the surface low is east of Florida.


06Z 500mb temps-valid Saturday, 10/25


Quoting Skyepony:
I'm still on the fence about a gulf or Caribbean storm. GEOS-5 has a broad low form this coming week in the Caribbean but doesn't really pull together til a week from today.



Then it does a Tampa to Jacksonville trip across FL on Monday.



The main key based on my observations would be if the TROF splits. If it does then the AOI would have a bias of staying in the GOM region, but if it doesn't split then the AOI would have the bias towards the W ATL side.
SFWM Models must not be updating on 92. Last run shows BAMD model showing Tampa to Jacksonville, like Skyepony showed.
Quoting 260. Sfloridacat5:




I see a little turning there over land near western BOC.
I m getting excited in looking at consensus modeling from the GEM, GFS, EURO. We might be getting something tropical next week. Exciting times in south florida
AL, 92, 2014101912, , BEST, 0, 326N, 201W, 40, 1000, LO
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting GatorWX:


I see a little turning there over land near western BOC.



I was looking at that spin too. But I see dead spins everywhere. What was the name of that movie?!
Quoting 264. hurricanewatcher61:

SFWM Models must not be updating on 92. Last run shows BAMD model showing Tampa to Jacksonville, like Skyepony showed.


92L is the system by the Azores
Gonzalo's moving at 52 mph!
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Its interesting that it is the Euro that develops this system in the BOC more than the GFS does

Here's what Mobile has to say:

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

Birmingham pretty much agrees with this assessment. No matter what kind of low develops in the Gulf, it looks like it will affect Cuba and south Florida, and then maybe parts of coastal east Florida as it turns to the NE. Given the synoptics over the CONUS, it looks like the Euro is going overboard on this system. Unless there's some big change over the next 10 days over the next 10 days, I can't see how this system is even going to bring rain to the northern Gulf let alone have any tropical storm effects. Of course, being 7-10 days out, this is all subject to change. The GFS hasn't been very reliable developing a Gulf system this season.
Just notice that, thanks.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


92L is the system by the Azores
Quoting 241. CaicosRetiredSailor:





In 2008 Hanna formed ( was named ) right over Provo here in the Turks and Caicos Islands and then it went south to Hispaniola weakened to a named tropical storm, returned as such right through the TCI, and then Cat. 3 Ike hit us ....all this was within SEVEN days!
Awsome! You are very correct about Hanna and Ike hitting TCI in 2008!!!
Where did we fail, I have people worrying about the type of bag I use, but that incentive is offset by charging only adding to our co2 credit demands, even the backs they offer for a price is made in a country the has not co2 oversight protection, stupidity abounds supreme......Never in the life of man have we seen such hypocritical frustration, our communities infrastructure is antiquated, from our sewage to our social demand on travel..... After wwII we did away with 90% our interim rail system and replaced them with diesel vehicles .. The small village type walk to store where replace by the malls that had to be driven too, now even those have disappeared and we have the mega/malls that have parking problems and our further out of reach by normal transportation...........What we really destroyed is our ability is to live with-in-our-social-needs,......We are on an entertainment (me-ism on a new high usage) our children are now part of our entertainment base threw the new exploitive sports base infrastructure..... All the hype on co2 takes back stage /we forgot that we our the problem not the plastic bags or the hug me solar type environment we embraces, where running out waste management facilities , that has been corp-itized to the max and subsidized by tax payers dollars.......What we forgot was limited car usage, not by better mileage, vacations use to be close and the demand on the facilities was minimal , life was slower and our demand where few, kid played down the street didn't have to be driven to a field miles away, we use to care about our sewage and our outfall lines, we use to care about the trees and we had planting programs (not the Gov. over funded type that provides the new shovel the green tee shirt and the elitist type mentality )..........we use to be an American village and Sunday was time to visit family and friends...( the stores use to be closed)....Where doomed/our inability to curb our egocentric being, we now have the multi-media attached to our heads cooking our brain-waves with micro-wave transmission's......We use to build and create, we used to have a vision, we use to truly enjoy our free time as part of our freedom (any of you remember just laying on a sandy dunes and enjoying the clouds), or on a summer night the stars that you use to be able to touch and sometimes gave you that special vision of not being alone......