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Category 2 Earl Passes the Outer Banks, Heads for Cape Cod

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:11 AM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. Earl continues to weaken, as he is now a category 2 storm.

Earl
As of 11PM EDT, Earl is a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 105 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 33.8 N, 74.4 W, 115 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC and 570 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, MA. On average, Earl is currently moving north-northeast at 18 mph. Data from hurricane hunter flights show that Earl's pressure has risen, the minimum central pressure is now 951 mb. Satellite data (Fig. 1), WSR-88D radar data (Fig. 2) and the hurricane hunters describe Earl's eyewall as being open in the west, which is to be expected for a weakening storm.


Fig. 1 Estimated rainfall-rate of Earl taken at 11PM EDT 2 September 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab


Fig. 2 Reflectivity image of Earl taken at midnight 3 September 2010. Doppler velocity scan showing the large-scale rotation of the storm.

Even though Earl's winds are declinling, he still covers a very large area. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 205 miles away. 12 foot seas extend at least 220 nmi from the center in all directions and may reach out to 420 nmi in the southeast quadrant of the storm. The most recent estimate (930PM EDT) of Earl's integrated kinetic energy is 91 TJ, with a wind impact of 3.0 out of 6 and a storm surge impact of 4.7 out of 6.

Track/Intensity Forecast

NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. The track has been adjusted to the east by a small amount. After Earl is captured by the trough in the jet stream Thursday, he will complete his turn to the northeast and start moving more rapidly. At the same time, shear from the trough and cooler surface waters will furthur weaken Earl. This forecast weakening calls for Earl to be a category 1 storm when he passes Cape Cod on Friday and when he makes landfall in Nova Scotia Saturday.

Right now, it looks like Earl is staying out to sea as it passes the Outer Banks. It will pass by the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay Friday morning. Tropical-storm force winds will start in Nantucket, MA Friday afternoon, and hurricane-force winds will arrive by late Friday evening.

Winds Forecast
NHC puts out a very useful wind probability forecast. Cape Hatteras has a 99% chance of tropical-storm (TS) force winds, and according to our M ETAR history page, the winds only need to pick up slightly. Besides the Outer Banks, Nantucket, MA looks to be the place most likely effected by Earl, there is a 90% chance of TS force winds. With the eastward shift in Earl's track, the area of 30% chance of TS force winds doesn't go as far inland as it did Wednesday night.

Current Watches and Warnings
Hurricane warnings are valid for the coast from Bogue Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border and for eastern MA from Westport to Hull. Hurricane watches are in effect from the NC/VA border to Cape Henlopen, DE and for Nova Scotia from Medway Harbour to Digby. Tropical storm warnings and watches cover the Atlantic coast from Cape Fear to Nova Scotia.

For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl in the US, visit our Tropical Alerts page. For people interested in watches and warnings for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, visit Environment Canada's watches and warnings page.

Impacts
The primary threats from Earl are going to be surf, wind, and storm surge. The wind threat is going to be greatest in eastern MA since the passage of Earl is expected to bring hurricane-force winds to Nantucket. Eastern Long Island will have the greatest winds outside of MA, with estimated winds of 30-40 mph, with gusts to 55 mph. This is expected to bring down trees and cause trouble for older mobile homes. Elsewhere between the Outer Banks and New England, expect weak tropical storm force winds (less than 35 mph).

For storm surge, 1-2 feet are expected along the NJ coast, with 3 feet possible in some locations. Eastern Long Island may have 2-4 feet surges along the Long Island Sound and Petonic and Gardines Bay. The Boston NWS office is not concerned about storm surge, but they note 20-25 foot seas are possible off Nantucket.

Since Earl is going to be moving quickly, flooding from rain should be confined to poor drainage areas and urban area street flooding.

For more localized info, check out NWS's Hurricane Local Statements or our severe weather page.

What to do
It's time to batten down the hatches. People living in New England have less than 18 hours to finish their preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Friday morning.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So pretty.
Fiona is sure holding out well against that shear and with Earl speeding up to the north soon. I wonder what will happen to Fiona if she manages to survive.
Thanks DRC.
Earls likely to do more damage on cape cod then the obx imo,he might make landfall as a strong ts/weak cat 1 near nantucket tomorrow night....
Earl has essentially been a non-event here in Wilmington. However, I can hear the ocean at my house 2 miles inland.
Very good news. Thanks
Thanks for the late update Dr. Carver.
These late night updates are greatly appreciated.
Thanks for the update, Dr. C! And now to read it!
XD
Nice update, Dr. Rob. Thanks.
thx for the update dr.carver
Just make it thru tonight and tmw and the east coast will be ready for visitors again! Its peaking there soon and no big deal for them. :)
Well thats enough for me tonight.. looking forward to seeing whats going on in the morning :)



AOI

AOI

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AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting Orcasystems:
Well thats enough for me tonight.. looking forward to seeing whats going on in the morning :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


thanks for posting those maps
Hi, MLC.
Long time....
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Would that have had an impact on Earl's troubles with dry air as well?


Yeah, quite possibly.
I believe 10 named storms could be possible in September, we just need a new one every 3 days and with the upward MJO coming I think it's entirely possible. We've already had Gaston (who will likely regenerate) and the wave off of Africa seems destined to become Hermine and with the wave train rolling anything's possible. A busy September is ahead of us at WU.
Hey, Pottery!

Thanks, and good to see you too, friend. But hey, I must say, man, you need to tighten up down there on point - you're letting too many of these gall durn things slip by! ;-P
that hpc rainfall totals in tx and in the gom are a combine front and a weak wave combining each other
Very good info Dr.Carver...Thanks for the update!
Quoting victoriahurricane:
I believe 10 named storms could be possible in September, we just need a new one every 3 days and with the upward MJO coming I think it's entirely possible. We've already had Gaston (who will likely regenerate) and the wave off of Africa seems destined to become Hermine and with the wave train rolling anything's possible. A busy September is ahead of us at WU.


I agree. We've never broken 8 for any month, but we could this year.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I agree. We've never broken 8 for any month, but we could this year.

Wow that is ALOT of action.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Hey, Pottery!

Thanks, and good to see you too, friend. But hey, I must say, man, you need to tighten up down there on point - you're letting too many of these gall durn things slip by! ;-P

I'm trying, I'm trying...
But they are getting past on the Northern flank, where I have minimal influence.
Will just have to try another tactic.
But stay prepared. (just in case, LOL)
Quoting btwntx08:

What is that in the Gulf? WOW.
The Canadians won't let me see their model. :(
those who picked 13 storms total is in jeperdy
I saw a comment in the last blog regarding the GFS New York hurricane saying hurricanes can't go west at that latitude. And he was right--I couldn't find one. However, I did find one sort of close, and bizarre.

txsweetpea its just a 5 day rain fall totals nothing serious
That being said, 16 day 'forecasts' aren't much better than reading entrails. On August 18th, the GFS had Danielle make landfall right on me as a Cat 4.
31. JRRP
If 10 storms do form in September then the hyperactive season to remember hype may not have been unwarranted as I'm sure we could get to 20 storms if we have 16 by the end of September. Maybe all this hype about the 2010 season will just happen all at once instead of spread out.
Basically, my congratulations to the NHC, Dr. Masters, Joe B., and almost all of the more learned members here of the WU for calling this storm about four days ago.

Despite all the jogs and wobbles, you've had it pretty much called to a "T" since then. Strange things could happen in the next few days, but anyone who put their faith in the long range calls about Earl is, for the majority part, okay right now, and has shown the good sense to deal with Earl's potential in a logical and common sense fashion.

"Prepare for the worst... hope for the best... and assume the reality will be somewhere in the middle" is something my father has always preached to me. And in Earl's case, so far, that has been the truth of things. :-)

Jo
hurricane season is a bust YAWN what a slow year yawn



this kinding
Quoting pottery:

I'm trying, I'm trying...
But they are getting past on the Northern flank, where I have minimal influence.
Will just have to try another tactic.
But stay prepared. (just in case, LOL)

Actually he's been sending them north on purpose. Something about protecting some tree in his back yard by surrounding it with shower curtains.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is a bust YAWN what a slow year yawn



this kinding

LOL
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
12:00 PM JST September 3 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 23.1N 132.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 21 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 24.3N 128.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, quite possibly.
Thanks so we could well be looking at a stronger storm?
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRY
11:00 AM PhST September 3 2010
======================================

Tropical Depression "HENRY" has slightly accelerated as it moves toward the Southern Islands of Japan.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Henry located at 22.9°N 133.1°E or 1,050 km northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Additional Information
======================
This weather disturbance is too far to affect any part of the country.

This tropical cyclone is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and Visayas particularly the western sections.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I saw a comment in the last blog regarding the GFS New York hurricane saying hurricanes can't go west at that latitude. And he was right--I couldn't find one. However, I did find one sort of close, and bizarre.


Well, the 60's were kind of bizarre..............
I am not surprised at that track, given certain circumstances.
WOW!IKE PART 2



WOW!IKE PART 2
LAST TIME I HAD 3 WEEKS WITH OUT LIGHTS
Actually that makes me wonder for a second. How fast does MJO move? Could it enhance Earl before landfall in Nova Scotia? This is a newb talking so excuse any stupidity that I utter.
Quoting superweatherman:
WOW!IKE PART 2



WOW!IKE PART 2
LAST TIME I HAD 3 WEEKS WITH OUT LIGHTS
Thats the 18Z the 0Z has it making landfall in nyc
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

Actually he's been sending them north on purpose. Something about protecting some tree in his back yard by surrounding it with shower curtains.

....and you PROMISED you would'nt tell!!!
Now the cat is out of the bag, and it's every man for himself................
heheheh
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Thats the 18Z the 0Z has it making landfall in nyc

LOL
The models are muddled?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:

Any reliable reports or guesses as to what damage the typhoon that hit N Korea did?
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Thats the 18Z the 0Z has it making landfall in nyc
But seriously...
how can the models show such different solutions, in a short time-frame like that??
What major conditions could possibly change that much, in that time frame?
I dont understand....
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Typhoon Kompasu affects on Korea
Thanks will go read it now.
you're welcome
I am out...
You all stay safe.
Quoting pottery:
I am out...
You all stay safe.
Me too. Night all.
on that 18z gfs run its actually due east brownsville(my area) lol yes looks like an ike but a bit south then that
I don't think I've made a comment here since Dean, but Oz is making me totally lose it. This is hysterical! Thanks to whoever it was that posted the link to him on the old blog.
Ok, back to lurkage I go. :)
0Z GFS not showing much interest in "99L"
must be "Uncle SAL" puffing his cigar again.

Anyhow, both the GFS and CMC (yeah, I know) are
digging a trof around 50W around 50W which would likely send "99L" packing.

As for Gaston, the GFS is doing the same flip-
flop with the 9/15 ECONUS trof - same as it did with Earl.
I find it odd though that Gaston would get "troffed" at such a low latitude this early in the season.

Feedback?
Quoting btwntx08:
txsweetpea its just a 5 day rain fall totals nothing serious

oh okay
Quoting superweatherman:
WOW!IKE PART 2



WOW!IKE PART 2
LAST TIME I HAD 3 WEEKS WITH OUT LIGHTS

Lets hope not and Ike Part 1 affected me too!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 030544
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 360
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



Quoting Kowaliga:
0Z GFS not showing much interest in "99L"
must be "Uncle SAL" puffing his cigar again.

Anyhow, both the GFS and CMC (yeah, I know) are
digging a trof around 50W around 50W which would likely send "99L" packing.

As for Gaston, the GFS is doing the same flip-
flop with the 9/15 ECONUS trof - same as it did with Earl.
I find it odd though that Gaston would get "troffed" at such a low latitude this early in the season.

Feedback?

????
also there isnt NO 99L yet
Quoting Kowaliga:
0Z GFS not showing much interest in "99L"
must be "Uncle SAL" puffing his cigar again.

Anyhow, both the GFS and CMC (yeah, I know) are
digging a trof around 50W around 50W which would likely send "99L" packing.

As for Gaston, the GFS is doing the same flip-
flop with the 9/15 ECONUS trof - same as it did with Earl.
I find it odd though that Gaston would get "troffed" at such a low latitude this early in the season.

Feedback?


The GFS tends to go trough happy a lot with weak systems. Until it initializes if Gaston reforms, I would take any run with a grain of salt.
Oz says he's a MENSA member now.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:

"Any reliable reports or guesses as to what damage the typhoon that hit N Korea did?"

Nothing reliable comes out of N Korea. Ever. Concerning anything. If it was bad we'll probably hear Kim jung Il or whatever his name is begging for rice, but nothing will come out of that country as far as news or reports.

what will happen with ex-gaston? it will regenerate?
Night all!
:D
Quoting Grecojdw:


The GFS tends to go trough happy a lot with weak systems. Until it initializes if Gaston reforms, I would take any run with a grain of salt.


True! (Maybe I should stop buying the cheap bourbon) :-)
nice storms up to my north
0z CMC sends gaston out to sea.
cmc soultion UNLIKELY
gfs 18z unlikely.
cool front coming to Texas...WOOOOO
edit umm i dont see an out to sea with gaston hes appoaching ther islands
hermine behind him as well
LONG RANGE CMC = RECURVE
Quoting btwntx08:

????


I put 99L in quotes assuming it would be next
up but that may not come to pass...
cmc went literary went stupid here hes at the islands then pull north well i see that as VERY UNLIKELY and yes 18z gfs wont come true also the 00z too it hits ny
Flip flopping for the next few days until Gaston decides to live or die.
man that solution is stupid it would have make a sharp turn north after that 144 hr point cmc=trash definity
Quoting CoopNTexas:
Flip flopping for the next few days until Gaston decides to live or die.
This is true lets see what the ecmwf says its next
BTW, I agree w/everyone on Gaston's shenanigan
around NYC - gotta be gone by 06.
Dup. post - sorry.
wow 00z ecmwf develops wave just off africa in 24 hrs
power still on in kill devil hills,little rain no damage.

Hurricane track is streaming live from the beach


Live streaming Kill Devil Hills
*yawn* Good morning. What happened to Gaston? And look at that, Earl off the east coast. That's good. Even tracking ENE.
Quoting CoopNTexas:
0z CMC sends gaston out to sea.


Gaston isn't recurving given its low latitude, and the upcoming pattern change.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Gaston isn't recurving given its low latitude, and the upcoming pattern change.
euro doesn't seem bullish on ex-gaston this time
Didn't say it was...only telling you what the model says.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Gaston isn't recurving given its low latitude, and the upcoming pattern change.

excatly just look at post 72 after that it makes a sharp turn north which is highly unlikely
Quoting smuldy:
euro doesn't seem bullish on ex-gaston this time


It's a reliable model, so I can't completely discount that. I want to see consistency first, though.
Quoting btwntx08:

excatly just look at post 72 after that it makes a sharp turn north which is highly unlikely


Yeah. Something seems off there.
Quoting CoopNTexas:
Didn't say it was...only telling you what the model says.


Only checking.

A WNW motion is eventually possible as it traverses the Caribbean because the ridge will slacken a bit, but if it recurves, it won't be until it enters the Gulf of Mexico, IMO.

Not wishcasting, but this is what I've been seeing the last two days, and still see.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's a reliable model, so I can't completely discount that. I want to see consistency first, though.
agreed, this far out, who knows, maybe more importantly euro is keeping earl just off of the cape so they likely will dodge the bullet and see no more than low end ts winds
Quoting Kowaliga:


I put 99L in quotes assuming it would be next
up but that may not come to pass...

yea ok
Quoting smuldy:
agreed, this far out, who knows, maybe more importantly euro is keeping earl just off of the cape so they likely will dodge the bullet and see no more than low end ts winds


Nantucket Island might still get sustained hurricane force winds, IMO.
Is that Gaston that the Euro is showing in about a week coming into the picture at around 20N?
ughh ecmwf images dont want to update past 24 hrs keep refreshing and its the same old run from yesterdays run
when it suppose to make that turn to the north?
when it reach PR?
0z euro drops gaston
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
when it suppose to make that turn to the north?
when it reach PR?

its unlikely but the cmc recurves it right as it appoaches the antelles islands
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned northward to 5.9degrees east of dueNorth
from it's previous heading of 5.1degrees north of North NorthEast
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was~18.3mph(~29.5km/h)

02Sep . 06amGMT - - 28.6n74.4w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - NHC.Adv.#31A
02Sep . 09amGMT - - 29.3n74.7w - - 145mph - - 928mb - - #32
02Sep . 12pmGMT - - 30.1n74.8w - - 145mph - - 932mb - - #32A
02Sep . 03pmGMT - - 30.9n74.8w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #33
02Sep . 06pmGMT - - 31.7n75.2w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #33A
02Sep . 09pmGMT - - 32.5n75.2w - - 115mph - - 947mb - - #34
03Sep . 12amGMT - - 33.0n74.7w - - 110mph - - 948mb - - #34A
03Sep . 03amGMT - - 33.8n74.4w - - 105mph - - 951mb - - #35
03Sep . 06amGMT - - 34.6n74.3w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #35A

Copy&paste 28.6n74.4w, 29.3n74.7w, 30.1n74.8w, 30.9n74.8w, 31.7n75.2w-32.5n75.2w, 32.5n75.2w-33.0n74.7w, 33.0n74.7w-33.8n74.4w, 33.8n74.4w-34.6n74.3w, bwi, 34.6n74.3w-40.6n73.49w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~22hours from now to LongBeach,NewYork
south of Levittown on LongIsland
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
when it suppose to make that turn to the north?
when it reach PR?


It might not. That's still possible though.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM MALOU (T1009)
15:00 PM JST September 3 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of
Japan

at 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Malou (1000 hPa) located at 23.2N 130.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 24.7N 128.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 27.8N 125.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 30.2N 125.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting btwntx08:

its unlikely but the cmc recurves it right as it appoaches the antelles islands

so, what you meant is that Gaston could affect PR directly?
damn the ecmwf dont want to refresh for me
euro doesn't develop the other wave either.
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

so, what you meant is that Gaston could affect PR directly?

most models have it below ur area but somehow some may be north as well
Eh, ex-Gaston is too far out for these models to be accurate, even the good ones like the Euro. Remember, even that one had Earl (or was it Fiona?) at one point coming right across central Florida and into the GOMEX.
Actually, the EURO does develop that wave off Africa and sends directly recurve as weak system.
not that gaston is too far out, it's too dang weak...LOL
Quoting CoopNTexas:
not that gaston is too far out, it's too dang weak...LOL

And there's that... lol
Quoting weatherwart:
Eh, ex-Gaston is too far out for these models to be accurate, even the good ones like the Euro. Remember, even that one had Earl (or was it Fiona?) at one point coming right across central Florida and into the GOMEX.

yep
ecmwf needs to go back and learn weak systems dont recurve u hear me im afraid im going to give u an F this run ecmwf and cmc
So, more importantly, because I just started watching some of TWC coverage, has Cantore donned the goggles yet? ;)
mode runs are crap this am they need to wake up
Quoting btwntx08:

most models have it below ur area but somehow some may be north as well

Thanks a lot for your answer!!!

BTW how do I upload a pic from my computer?
lol
well im off for night good night all
Tropical Depression 10-E forming in the Eastern Pacific...currently there were more tropical storms in the Atlantic (7) than the EPac (6).
Quoting btwntx08:
well im off for night good night all


Night!
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

Thanks a lot for your answer!!!

BTW how do I upload a pic from my computer?

You can't. You have to upload your file to some pic sharing site on the net and then download from there.

Wait, are you talking about DL to the board itself or to the Photo section on the site?
Quoting weatherwart:

You can't. You have to upload your file to some pic sharing site on the net and then download from there.

ok thanks
Hi anybody got links to graphics where the loop current is up the east coast? Seems on rainbow loop that earl just hit it.

Gaston is starting it re-development now we could see TD Gaston by mid-day today and TS Gaston by afternoon
Wow! You can actually see the surge coming up on webcams out of Ocracoke! I thought I saw waves washing past it earlier, and there's now definitely water everywhere.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST September 3 2010
==================================

A low pressure area has formed over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal south of Orissa and north Andhra coast

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:
============================

Broken intense to very intense convection over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 17.0N and westof 86.5E. Also convection is seen between 14.5N to 16.5N and 86.5E to 89.0E. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over rest northeast Bay and south Bay of Bengal between 13.5N, Gulf of Martaban and Andaman Sea. Scattered low/medium clouds with embedded isolated weak to moderate convection over rest Bay of Bengal

ARABIAN SEA:
==================

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded isolated weak to moderate convection over north Arabian Sea and rest southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea east of 70.0E.
Quoting weatherwart:
So, more importantly, because I just started watching some of TWC coverage, has Cantore donned the goggles yet? ;)


No, but earlier they showed video of him driving in the middle of the storm while telling their viewers to not go out in the storm.
Quoting GBguy88:
Wow! You can actually see the surge coming up on webcams out of Ocracoke! I thought I saw waves washing past it earlier, and there's now definitely water everywhere.

I'm in Bridgehampton Long Island. 4pm today I had 200-300 yards of beach, its all ocean now right up to the dune the house sits on
Earl seems to move nnw.Lets hope it change direction.
0400 Cantore Goggle Report: Negative. Repeat, that's a NEGATIVE goggle report for Cantore.

Next update at 0600 EDT.

end
Good morning all.

Glad to see Earl's effects so far have been less than might otherwise have been expected. What are SSTs like between NJ and MA? I vaguely remember them being rather warmer than normal....

Here it's been raining off and on all night. New Providence is so small that one area of convection can easily cover the entire island... lol...



However, I'd much rather deal with some local effects from a thunderstorm than either Earl or Fiona's concentrated heavy rains....
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST September 3 2010
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Lionrock (1002 hPa) located at 24.0N 114.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly

System #2
---------

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Kompasu (1004 hPa) located at 42.0N 140.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 15 knots
Dry air has lessened around Gaston over the last 12 hours, and this is the result:



Still disorganized and lacks outflow, but convection is becoming more circular and gradually becoming better organized directly atop the center.
Morning people.

Looks to me the Euro develops Gaston again, but can't be sure as it has a weird east glitch. Like Gaston's scared of the dry air and tries to run back to Africa.

00z's Gaston track makes little sense. He's just playing pinball.

The main thing though is Gaston doesn't seem to develop particularly until Earl's out of the picture (in timeframe, not because of Earl).

Gives the forecasters not so much to work on, though.

However, Colin regenerates, TD5 hang around too long, Gaston might renegerate later on...

The season of Karen's revenge, told ya before...

Quoting KoritheMan:
Dry air has lessened around Gaston over the last 12 hours, and this is the result:



Still disorganized and lacks outflow, but convection is becoming more circular and gradually becoming better organized directly atop the center.


Is the convective activity to the south of Gaston providing some fuel? Sorry...bad manners...good morning all. tia if someone can answer this question.
Quoting bcycsailor:


Is the convective activity to the south of Gaston providing some fuel?


Likely. Along with DMAX.
Fiona stays as she is.
Seems Earl does too.
Quoting Cotillion:
Seems Earl does too.


No. Down to 85 kt/100 mph. He was at 90 kt/105 mph at the intermediate advisory.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Likely. Along with DMAX.


I see. Thanks for your reply. This could get interesting, and disturbing over the next week IMO.
Quoting bcycsailor:


I see. Thanks for your reply. This could get interesting, and disturbing over the next week IMO.


There's more where that came from too, as we're likely to see Hermine over the next few days from the vigorous wave behind Gaston.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No. Down to 85 kt/100 mph. He was at 90 kt/105 mph at the intermediate advisory.


I stand corrected, and it looks like the NHC corrected their error that was in the Forecast/Advisory, which stated 85 kt.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP102010
9:00 AM UTC September 3 2010
=======================================

SUBJECT: New Tropical Depression Forms In The Eastern Pacific

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Ten (1001 hPa) located at 19.7N 109.6W or 190 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 20.5N 112.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP102010
9:00 AM UTC September 3 2010
=======================================

SUBJECT: New Tropical Depression Forms In The Eastern Pacific

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Ten (1001 hPa) located at 19.7N 109.6W or 190 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 20.5N 112.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)


The inactivity in that basin continues, since 10E may not even become Georgette. It's bad when the Atlantic has surpassed it.
As said yesterday, 2010 already has 2 storms in the Top 100 most intense hurricanes from 1851. (Obviously, caveats of poor and incomplete recordings pre-1975 and especially before 1950 apply. See blog for details).

Earl is at 31, Danielle at 89.

Not a bad start, really.
Quoting KoritheMan:


The inactivity in that basin continues, since 10E may not even become Georgette. It's bad when the Atlantic has surpassed it.


La Nina and cold PDO will do that.

I don't think this will be a rare occurrence either for the next few years.
I think we will see Gaston jump to 50-60% come 8am and I think we will see the wave behind it sitting at 20-30%. I think the wave would be higher were it not for the dry air that destroyed Gaston awaiting it, an expect some development down the road.
Quoting Cotillion:


La Nina and cold PDO will do that.

I don't think this will be a rare occurrence either for the next few years.


Unless we get a strong El Nino like last year.
Quoting smuldy:
I think we will see Gaston jump to 50-60% come 8am and I think we will see the wave behind it sitting at 20-30%. I think the wave would be higher were it not for the dry air that destroyed Gaston awaiting it, an expect some development down the road.


It's not the dry air that's keeping development percentages down for that wave. Even before Gaston was dissipating, they mentioned nothing about the dry air.

It's because of 30 knots of easterly shear, which is unfavorable even if the wave is moving in the same direction as the shear.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unless we get a strong El Nino like last year.


Yes, we will get some.

If the preliminary projections are right and La Nina extends into next year, El Nino around 2011-12 potentially (El Nino in 2012 - oh, won't the filmmakers be pleased...)
Quoting KoritheMan:


There's more where that came from too, as we're likely to see Hermine over the next few days from the vigorous wave behind Gaston.


With all of the vigorous pulses of extreme weather going on worldwide over the last few months, I'm wondering if the now returning MJO will usher in a train of storms we just don't want to see up close, especially Haiti.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not the dry air that's keeping development percentages down for that wave. Even before Gaston was dissipating, they mentioned nothing about the dry air.

It's because of 30 knots of easterly shear, which is unfavorable even if the wave is moving in the same direction as the shear.
but unless I am reading the shear map wrong, if it kept it's current heading it would be into moderate shear at the 24 hour mark, but it will hit the dry air from the SAL by then. Am I reading that wrong?
Quoting bcycsailor:


With all of the vigorous pulses of extreme weather going on worldwide over the last few months, I'm wondering if the now returning MJO will usher in a train of storms we just don't want to see up close, especially Haiti.


I'm afraid that's very likely to happen. I doubt we'll see a storm free day until sometime in October.
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, we will get some.

If the preliminary projections are right and La Nina extends into next year, El Nino around 2011-12 potentially (El Nino in 2012 - oh, won't the filmmakers be pleased...)


mwahahaha

Also with regards to 2012, if El Nino develops then, it will have done so on List 4 of the Atlantic naming list. Not really sure what it is about that particular list in this basin, but it almost always fails to get itself going.

1982: El Nino, 5 storms
1994: El Nino, 7 storms, but 0 major hurricanes
2006: El Nino, completely busted forecast

And a lot of 1988, with the exception of Gilbert and Joan, was a bust too, even though that year had La Nina.
24 hr out 0zgfs; 10-15kt shear for new wave right?
Quoting KoritheMan:


mwahahaha

Also with regards to 2012, if El Nino develops then, it will have done so on List 4 of the Atlantic naming list. Not really sure what it is about that particular list in this basin, but it almost always fails to get itself going.

1982: El Nino, 5 storms
1994: El Nino, 7 storms, but 0 major hurricanes
2006: El Nino, completely busted forecast

And a lot of 1988, with the exception of Gilbert and Joan, was a bust too, even though that year had La Nina.


Excellent!

I've been waiting for someone to pick up on that. Yes, that list has the fewest retired hurricanes - Keith was as well in 2000.

The last list that did had fewer retired hurricanes... was the 2005 list. And we know what happened there.

2012 isn't what bothers me. However, 2018?

I could see a 1950-redux.

(All an exceptionally long way out, of course. So, don't take it as a prediction, premonition or expectation).
Quoting Cotillion:


Excellent!

I've been waiting for someone to pick up on that. Yes, that list has the fewest retired hurricanes - Keith was as well in 2000.

The last list that did had fewer retired hurricanes... was the 2005 list. And we know what happened there.

2012 isn't what bothers me. However, 2018?

I could see a 1950-redux.

(All an exceptionally long way out, of course. So, don't take it as a prediction, premonition or expectation).


I'm also perplexed as to why Gordon in 1994 wasn't retired. Haiti or not, that was pretty bad.
However, just noted:

1946 was the beginning of the cold PDO.

1950, the year of the major hurricane, was 4 years later.

2008 starts the next cold PDO.

2012 is 4 years later.

Scary.
Quoting smuldy:
24 hr out 0zgfs; 10-15kt shear for new wave right?


Yes.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm also perplexed as to why Gordon in 1994 wasn't retired. Haiti or not, that was pretty bad.


Yes, as well as Hanna in 2008.

Hanna killed more than Gustav, Ike, and Paloma combined.
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, as well as Hanna in 2008.

Hanna killed more than Gustav, Ike, and Paloma combined.


Yeah, I wonder about that one too. And Emily from 1987 or 2005.
Emily's interesting.

She's made landfall/direct hit as a major hurricane three times.

And she has never been retired. (1987, 1993, 2005).
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm afraid that's very likely to happen. I doubt we'll see a storm free day until sometime in October.


Well, they are fascinating and troubling wonders of nature. I've only seen the devastation from afar, never been through anything stronger than a TS and some wicked gales, prairie t-storms, etc. But if I were on a small island with major at my door, I'd be quaking.
Quoting Cotillion:
Emily's interesting.

She's made landfall/direct hit as a major hurricane three times.

And she has never been retired. (1987, 1993, 2005).


Dr. Masters actually wrote a blog on this once, I think in late 2005 or early 2006, stating that he thinks it's some sort of conspiracy. I've never been able to completely ascertain if he was being sarcastic or not, but I'm guessing not, given the overall tone.
Quoting bcycsailor:


Well, they are fascinating and troubling wonders of nature. I've only seen the devastation from afar, never been through anything stronger than a TS and some wicked gales, prairie t-storms, etc. But if I were on a small island with major at my door, I'd be quaking.


I've been through several notable hurricanes, most recently Gustav in 2008.

But I agree. I would never ride out a hurricane stronger than a Category 2 on an island or a coastal area unless I absolutely had to.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Dr. Masters actually wrote a blog on this once, I think in late 2005 or early 2006, stating that he thinks it's some sort of conspiracy. I've never been able to completely ascertain if he was being sarcastic or not, but I'm guessing not, given the overall tone.


Well, she's back next year... Another try.

'E' names have been like that. Only 3 retired, despite being so high up in the lists (B is also like that, with only 3 as well.)

The male E names generally aren't too bad - Ernesto, Eduoard... though Earl is now bucking the trend. That said with Earl, he's done damage, but so far, he's spared the worst by far. Hopefully, he continues to do so until extratropical. The sooner, the better.

However, Erin, Erika, and Emily. Dems 3 meaaaaan women.

Rest of 2010:
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

Names for 2011 and beyond
Try this again. Speaking of future seasons, not looking forward to 2011. Why would they replace RITA with RINA? That is just wrong. Lol.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've been through several notable hurricanes, most recently Gustav in 2008.

But I agree. I would never ride out a hurricane stronger than a Category 2 on an island or a coastal area unless I absolutely had to.


Were you in a position to document what you experienced during Gustav? He was quite destructive if I remember correctly.
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned eastward to 3.1degrees north of NorthNorthEast
from it's previous heading of 5.9degrees east of dueNorth
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was 17mph(~27.4km/h)

02Sep . 09amGMT - - 29.3n74.7w - - 145mph - - 928mb - - NHC.Adv.#32
02Sep . 12pmGMT - - 30.1n74.8w - - 145mph - - 932mb - - #32A
02Sep . 03pmGMT - - 30.9n74.8w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #33
02Sep . 06pmGMT - - 31.7n75.2w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #33A
02Sep . 09pmGMT - - 32.5n75.2w - - 115mph - - 947mb - - #34
03Sep . 12amGMT - - 33.0n74.7w - - 110mph - - 948mb - - #34A
03Sep . 03amGMT - - 33.8n74.4w - - 105mph - - 951mb - - #35
03Sep . 06amGMT - - 34.6n74.3w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #35A
03Sep . 09amGMT - - 35.3n74.0w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36

Copy&paste 29.3n74.7w, 30.1n74.8w, 30.9n74.8w, 31.7n75.2w, 32.5n75.2w-33.0n74.7w, 33.0n74.7w-33.8n74.4w, 33.8n74.4w-34.6n74.3w, 34.6n74.3w-35.3n74.0w, bwi, 35.3n74.0w-40.6n73.49w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~26hours from now to HorseneckBeach,Massachusetts
southsouthwest of NewBedford
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Try this again. Speaking of future seasons, not looking forward to 2011. Why would they replace RITA with RINA? That is just wrong. Lol.


LOL

They don't try anymore. Most replacement names are utter crap nowadays.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Try this again. Speaking of future seasons, not looking forward to 2011. Why would they replace RITA with RINA? That is just wrong. Lol.


Fabian's replacement was nearly Frodo.

Also, with Earl, if he unfortunately caused enough destruction to be retired, he'd be the first male 'E' name to have that. All the other 3 were female names, last in '85.

The next letter down the list to not be for a retired male name is 'O'. Which is far down the list as it is.

Useless trivia for you.

Quoting bcycsailor:


Were you in a position to document what you experienced during Gustav? He was quite destructive if I remember correctly.


I was actually standing outside during part of him. lol

But not during the worst.

Yeah, he was particularly destructive, and frankly, I think the Baton Rouge area was largely forgotten about, simply because New Orleans was spared the devastating flood disaster that was feared. That sickens me, since Gustav's main legacy for the United States was the damage he caused in the Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Indeed, we experienced our most severe and damaging windstorm since Hurricane Betsy in 1965.

Much of downtown Baton Rouge was left without electricity for at least three weeks, with some areas lacking it for a month.

I was one of the fortunate ones, getting power back in just five days. That was bad enough, and I can't imagine what the aforementioned folks had to endure.

Basically, my area (as well as myself), were ill-prepared for the damage this storm caused. It taught me to respect a Category 2 hurricane, that's for sure.
Quoting Cotillion:


Fabian's replacement was nearly Frodo.

Also, with Earl, if he unfortunately caused enough destruction to be retired, he'd be the first male 'E' name to have that. All the other 3 were female names, last in '85.

The next letter down the list to not be for a guy is 'O'. Which is far down the list as it is.

Useless trivia for you.



???
Quoting KoritheMan:


LOL

They don't try anymore. Most replacement names are utter crap nowadays.


Yeah but that one sounds like a warning already part Rita part Katrina. Somebody's got a sick sense of humor. Lol. But hopefully we won't make it to the R storm for a long time. Think its only been done like 3 times.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah but that one sounds like a warning already part Rita part Katrina. Somebody's got a sick sense of humor. Lol. But hopefully we won't make it to the R storm for a long time. Think its only been done like 3 times.


Yeah, I do think they should have picked a more responsible replacement name for Katrina and Rita. I think even the layman would recognize that.
Good night guys. Have to wake up early tomorrow. Nice chatting tonight.
Quoting KoritheMan:


???


'As a result, the Bermuda Weather Service allowed residents to suggest a replacement name, with the only rule being the name had to be a male name beginning with the letter "F", able to be easily pronounced, and not currently in use. The service received a list of over 30 names, including Forrest and Frodo, after the character in The Lord of the Rings.'

It was then narrowed down to Fred, Ford, and Flynn. They chose Fred, a bit of a copout considering we already had Frederic.

On the other hand, we can avoid all Hans Solo/Indiana Jones and Errol Flynn references.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was actually standing outside during part of him. lol

But not during the worst.

Yeah, he was particularly destructive, and frankly, I think the Baton Rouge area was largely forgotten about, simply because New Orleans was spared the devastating flood disaster that was feared. That sickens me, since Gustav's main legacy for the United States was the damage he caused in the Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Indeed, we experienced our most severe and damaging windstorm since Hurricane Betsy in 1965.

Much of downtown Baton Rouge was left without electricity for at least three weeks, with some areas lacking it for a month.

I was one of the fortunate ones, getting power back in just five days. That was bad enough, and I can't imagine what the aforementioned folks had to endure.

Basically, my area (as well as myself), were ill-prepared for the damage this storm caused. It taught me to respect a Category 2 hurricane, that's for sure.


Yes there were a couple of nasty cat 2's in 2008. I remember reading about the destruction in Baton Rouge. That was a surprise to many it sounded like.
Quoting aspectre:
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned eastward to 3.1degrees north of NorthNorthEast
from it's previous heading of 5.9degrees east of dueNorth
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was 17mph(~27.4km/h)

02Sep . 09amGMT - - 29.3n74.7w - - 145mph - - 928mb - - NHC.Adv.#32
02Sep . 12pmGMT - - 30.1n74.8w - - 145mph - - 932mb - - #32A
02Sep . 03pmGMT - - 30.9n74.8w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #33
02Sep . 06pmGMT - - 31.7n75.2w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #33A
02Sep . 09pmGMT - - 32.5n75.2w - - 115mph - - 947mb - - #34
03Sep . 12amGMT - - 33.0n74.7w - - 110mph - - 948mb - - #34A
03Sep . 03amGMT - - 33.8n74.4w - - 105mph - - 951mb - - #35
03Sep . 06amGMT - - 34.6n74.3w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #35A
03Sep . 09amGMT - - 35.3n74.0w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36

Copy&paste 29.3n74.7w, 30.1n74.8w, 30.9n74.8w, 31.7n75.2w, 32.5n75.2w-33.0n74.7w, 33.0n74.7w-33.8n74.4w, 33.8n74.4w-34.6n74.3w, 34.6n74.3w-35.3n74.0w, bwi, 35.3n74.0w-40.6n73.49w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~26hours from now to HorseneckBeach,Massachusetts
southsouthwest of NewBedford



are you saying based on the speed of Earl and the rate he is turning north east you think he could make landfall in Horseneck beach area?
Quoting Cotillion:


'As a result, the Bermuda Weather Service allowed residents to suggest a replacement name, with the only rule being the name had to be a male name beginning with the letter "F", able to be easily pronounced, and not currently in use. The service received a list of over 30 names, including Forrest and Frodo, after the character in The Lord of the Rings.'

It was then narrowed down to Fred, Ford, and Flynn. They chose Fred, a bit of a copout considering we already had Frederic.

On the other hand, we can avoid all Hans Solo/Indiana Jones and Errol Flynn references.


And I can hear it already, "Run Forrest Run." Ugh! Lol.
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, as well as Hanna in 2008.

Hanna killed more than Gustav, Ike, and Paloma combined.
I think Hanna wasn't retired because so much of its effects were predicated on the high level of saturation already engendered by the previous storms that impacted Haiti (Fay, Gustav). Additionally, with Ike coming just behind, it was difficult to separate Hanna effects from Ike effects for Haiti. They just needed 2 retire the entire '08 season for Haiti...

Emily '05, now, I don't understand either why that wasn't retired while Stan was....
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah but that one sounds like a warning already part Rita part Katrina. Somebody's got a sick sense of humor. Lol. But hopefully we won't make it to the R storm for a long time. Think its only been done like 3 times.


Twice, I think. Both were retired.

(You'd need to reach storm #17 to get 'R'. That's only been done twice in '95 and '05.

1969 had that many storms, but some were unnamed. 1887/1933 of course, did not have any names).
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think Hanna wasn't retired because so much of its effects were predicated on the high level of saturation already engendered by the previous storms that impacted Haiti (Fay, Gustav). Additionally, with Ike coming just behind, it was difficult to separate Hanna effects from Ike effects for Haiti. They just needed 2 retire the entire '08 season for Haiti...

Emily '05, now, I don't understand either why that wasn't retired while Stan was....


For Hanna, that's about the only explanation and it has its merits. It doesn't excuse Gordon, while storms like Elena and Paloma are retired.

Stan was a bit like Hanna, really. He killed lots of people - around the same as Katrina - yet not by his doing, alone.

Emily did not cause a billion damage or more than 20 fatalities. I can sort of understand that.

Of course, the naming and retiring of names is mostly academic, though perhaps it can help cause closure for some people in the most damaging cases. Having people suffering from any sort of PTSD and then hearing the name come again mustn't be easy.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was actually standing outside during part of him. lol

But not during the worst.

Yeah, he was particularly destructive, and frankly, I think the Baton Rouge area was largely forgotten about, simply because New Orleans was spared the devastating flood disaster that was feared. That sickens me, since Gustav's main legacy for the United States was the damage he caused in the Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Indeed, we experienced our most severe and damaging windstorm since Hurricane Betsy in 1965.

Much of downtown Baton Rouge was left without electricity for at least three weeks, with some areas lacking it for a month.

I was one of the fortunate ones, getting power back in just five days. That was bad enough, and I can't imagine what the aforementioned folks had to endure.

Basically, my area (as well as myself), were ill-prepared for the damage this storm caused. It taught me to respect a Category 2 hurricane, that's for sure.


Thanks for sharing. It scares me sometimes how much we have come to rely on our electrical grid, and then when it goes...

As for standing outside during a Cat 2...I can see how that would rock until the neighbor's stuff started to take flight...oh, unless that all happened earlier. Anyway, sheesh.
Quoting KoritheMan:


LOL

They don't try anymore. Most replacement names are utter crap nowadays.


Hey, my grandmother's name was Rina. It means peace...though you could also say it's like Katrina, only without the "Kat".
Yeah. Paloma got retired because the gov't of the impacted countries requested. I guess Haiti's gov't thought Hanna was "old hat" by comparison with other systems. I wonder what a storm whould have to do to Haiti to cause them to request a retirement....
I've stood outside in cat 2 winds, albeit in an area sheltered from the winds. Even so it is not fun, and I wasn't out there very long....
I've stood outside in cat 2 winds, albeit in an area sheltered from the winds. Even so it is not fun, and I wasn't out there very long....
I've stood outside in cat 2 winds, albeit in an area sheltered from the winds. Even so it is not fun, and I wasn't out there very long....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah. Paloma got retired because the gov't of the impacted countries requested. I guess Haiti's gov't thought Hanna was "old hat" by comparison with other systems. I wonder what a storm whould have to do to Haiti to cause them to request a retirement....


Yeah, which is fine. That's how it works and only really individual countries can judge how bad a particular storm has been.

Even looking at the stats, a billion damage to the United States - like Dolly - is considered not as bad as it once was. A billion damage to the rest of the Caribbean, particularly outside of Mexico as well, would be catastrophic.

As to the other part of the sentence, Haiti has suffered enough, I hope it doesn't have to find out.
Quoting breald:



are you saying based on the speed of Earl and the rate he is turning north east you think he could make landfall in Horseneck beach area?
no thats just the extrapolated position; it shouldn't get too bad anywhere outside of nantucket barring a major shift back west in the track; and by too bad i mean stronger than weak to moderate TS conditions, which aren't all that different from a strong nor'easter
NEW BLOG
NEW BLOG
Quoting BahaHurican:
I've stood outside in cat 2 winds, albeit in an area sheltered from the winds. Even so it is not fun, and I wasn't out there very long....


I looked at some video posted earlier from Earl's pounding of St. Maartan. and I thought how I would NOT want to be on a boat seeking the lee side. Mayhem.
Quoting smuldy:
no thats just the extrapolated position; it shouldn't get too bad anywhere outside of nantucket barring a major shift back west in the track; and by too bad i mean stronger than weak to moderate TS conditions, which aren't all that different from a strong nor'easter


I was surprised to see the hurricane warning still posted for my area. I don't live far from horseneck beach.
198. KBH
Quoting Cotillion:


For Hanna, that's about the only explanation and it has its merits. It doesn't excuse Gordon, while storms like Elena and Paloma are retired.

Stan was a bit like Hanna, really. He killed lots of people - around the same as Katrina - yet not by his doing, alone.

Emily did not cause a billion damage or more than 20 fatalities. I can sort of understand that.

Of course, the naming and retiring of names is mostly academic, though perhaps it can help cause closure for some people in the most damaging cases. Having people suffering from any sort of PTSD and then hearing the name come again mustn't be easy.

Your thoughts are similar to what I wrote in the blog earlier this week..have any of the met persons actually investigated the pyschological impact of using people's names to refer to storms? expecially on children who experienced an ordeal
199. KBH
Now there is another view that unless people are reminded of how much damage was caused by hurricanes e.g. Katrina, etc. that they will not heed warnings and prepare for an impending storm/ hurricane