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Category 2 Earl Heads for Cape Cod

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:49 AM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your early-morning blog update. Earl is starting to pass the Outer Banks, all tropical warnings south of Cape Lookout, NC have been discontinued, and the hurricane watch for North Carolina has been canceled. Looking at our METAR history page, it is apparent the low pressure center of Earl is now moving away from Cape Hatteras.

As of 500AM EDT, Earl is still a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 105 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 35.3 N, 74.0 W, 85 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC and 465 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, MA. On average, Earl is currently moving north-northeast at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure is now 955 mb. Data from TRMM (Fig. 1) and WSR-88D radar data (Fig. 2) show that Earl's eye is large and poorly-defined.


Fig. 1 Estimated rainfall-rate of Earl from TRMM taken at 2AM EDT 3 September 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab


Fig. 2 Reflectivity image of Earl taken at 5am 3 September 2010. Doppler velocity scan showing the large-scale rotation of the storm.

Even though Earl's winds are declining, he still covers a very large area. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 205 miles away. 12 foot seas extend at least 220 nmi from the center in all directions and may reach out to 420 nmi in the southeast quadrant of the storm. The most recent wind field analysis (930PM EDT) shows that the winds associated with Earl are weakening. Earl's integrated kinetic energy is 74 TJ, with a wind impact of 2.5 out of 6 and a storm surge impact of 4.3 out of 6.

Track/Intensity Forecast

NHC has not altered their track forecast for this update. Now that Earl has been captured by the trough, it will accelerate off to the northeast towards Nova Scotia. At the same time, shear from the trough and cooler surface waters continue to weaken Earl. This forecast weakening calls for Earl to be a category 1 storm when he passes Cape Cod this afternoon and when he makes landfall in Nova Scotia tomorrow.

Earl will pass by the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay later this morning, bringing tropical storm force winds to much of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Tropical storm force winds will arrive in coastal New England this afternoon, and hurricane force winds will arrive later this evening. You can track Earl's progress up the East Coast with our storm-centered radar animation.

Winds Forecast
NHC puts out a very useful wind probability forecast. Nantucket, MA looks to be the place most likely effected by Earl today, there is a 97% chance of TS force winds. Boston, Hyannis, and Providence, RI have a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds today.

Current Watches and Warnings
Hurricane warnings are valid for the coast from Cape Lookout, NC to the NC/VA border and for eastern MA from Westport to Hull. Hurricane watches are in effect for Nova Scotia from Medway Harbour to Digby. Tropical storm warnings and watches cover parts of the Atlantic coast from the NC/VA border to Nova Scotia

For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl in the US, visit our Tropical Alerts page. For people interested in watches and warnings for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, visit Environment Canada's watches and warnings page.

Impacts
The threats from Earl have not changed significantly since my previous posting.

The primary threats from Earl are going to be surf, wind, and storm surge. The wind threat is going to be greatest in eastern MA since the passage of Earl is expected to bring hurricane force winds to Nantucket. Eastern Long Island will have the greatest winds outside of MA, with estimated winds of 30-40 mph, with gusts to 55 mph. This is expected to bring down trees and cause trouble for older mobile homes. People elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts should expect weak tropical storm force winds (less than 35 mph).

For storm surge, 1-2 feet are expected along the NJ coast, with 3 feet possible in some locations. Eastern Long Island may have 2-4 feet surges along the Long Island Sound and Petonic and Gardines Bay. The Boston NWS office is not concerned about storm surge, but they note 20-25 foot seas are possible off Nantucket.

Since Earl is going to be moving quickly, flooding from rain should be confined to poor drainage areas and urban area street flooding.

For more localized info, check out the NWS Hurricane Local Statements or our severe weather page.

What to do
It's time to batten down the hatches. People living in New England have less than 12 hours to finish their preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS office.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update later this morning.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting raggpr:
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH

There you go, models might be wrong


Models don't have much to latch onto at this point.

Early runs for Earl had him trailing Danielle much as Fiona has been with Earl.
Quoting RedEft:
Starting to rain pretty hard here on Cape Cod. No wind yet, but weird light...

It's an eerie sight ain't it? Stay safe!
Quoting Tazmanian:



it says its moveing NNW

but this says other



A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

if 99l movees to nw then it will pull the new few tw comming off africa to the nw also making anything a fish out there for the next few weeks?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 14:30Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 14:02:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 36°29'N 73°11'W (36.4833N 73.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 142 miles (229 km) to the ENE (77°) from Kill Devil Hills, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,770m (9,088ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the NNW (329°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 83° at 63kts (From the E at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NNW (329°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:54:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:21:00Z
Quoting reedzone:


Ughhh here they go with "FISH FISH FISH"... this blog is really immature.




Mullet Storm Maybe ?
yup! storm and Joe B are indeed correct. attentin should shift to florida, caribbean and GOM

I have a feeling that the next two months will get very interesting
Gaston probably won't do any significant strengthening for another day or two. It might not even be a TD again for 36 to 48 hours, IMO.

The water between 45W and 55W is extremely potent heat content, but there is also a very large mass of dry air. It's going to be almost impossible for an "open wave" to develop in that.

The dry air out ahead of him appears to be lifting northward ever so slowly, but that is going to take at least 24 to 36 hours to clear out completely.
Quoting TOMSEFLA:
if 99l movees to nw then it will pull the new few tw comming off africa to the nw also making anything a fish out there for the next few weeks?



am not sure this look at the mode runs and you find out not evere thing will be fish storm
no update on Earl yet..
whoa - Jeff - think the + must have kicked in all at once. You might want to cue the theme from the Jeffersons, LOL.
Repost:

Fiona's CoC is racing off to the NNE, but it's convection is still 5 to 8 degrees south, and moving almost due west.

Any chance we see a new CoC forming down there today or tomorrow?
I personally think they should bring back Gaston as a TD, just so we can keep an eye on him; well, we are anyway, but at least it would be on the charts...

and it has an orange circle which means it could develope again... they took it away too soon.

but that is just my opinion..

I really need to get somework done will try not to post again for awhile.

Hold down the blog!
Quoting reedzone:


Ughhh here they go with "FISH FISH FISH"... this blog is really immature.


I don't think that was need said, as those that know anything would not say those words. I have finally trained my eyes to just ignore most post that have make little sense and hit the minus sign that have no meaning. Hit the button to show the average post and its amazing who shows up.
11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 3
Location: 36.8°N 73.1°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NNE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 961 mb
NYC may get TS force winds..

the core is trying to re develop, and the rain shield that contained those hurricane winds and kept them off shore has wrapped around to the west side of the center.

Quoting RecordSeason:
Repost:

Fiona's CoC is racing off to the NNE, but it's convection is still 5 to 8 degrees south, and moving almost due west.

Any chance we see a new CoC forming down there today or tomorrow?


I posted last nite that the LLC will move North while the MidLevel moves South. I think that will happen. The MidLevel could work another LLC down in a few days. Needs watched.
Quoting StormSurgeon:


I don't think so, but he taught me how to make great gumbo.


Never be able to look at jug wine the same way for the rest of my life...
Max sustained winds w/ Earl down to 85mph....wow! That's great news.

Gaston has a very slim chance of surviving, but highly unlikely. I'm writing him off.
Gaston stay where you are because shear in front of u is going to kill u
523. 900MB
Quoting leo305:
NYC may get TS force winds..

the core is trying to re develop, and the rain shield that contained those hurricane winds and kept them off shore has wrapped around to the west side of the center.



This thing is a little West of my comfort zone here in Montauk. Also thought it would look weaker t this point.
Quoting Neapolitan:


You're free to not read my posts, if you wish, but I believe many on here--at least the more intelligent ones--would prefer truth over fakery. Now, if you made the same photo yourself, congrats on your technical achievment if not your originality...but you didn't publish it in a large newspaper and try to pass it off as real, did you?

BTW, I wouldn't say I'm a "know-it-all"; I'd say I'm a "know more". Comes from reading a lot. You shoulld try it sometime; you might like it. :-)


Oh My Goodness!

"to your room young man for not respecting your elders properly!"




Gaston, keep heading into the shear and die ,DIE I tell ya :)
At this point probably thinking Earl will only be a high-end tropical storm by the time it's skirts off New England coast.
Gotta run .....everyone have a good day. Peace out.
Quoting 900MB:


This thing is a little West of my comfort zone here in Montauk. Also thought it would look weaker t this point.


yea you may get hurricane force gusts, in fact if the center keeps in this direction, the eye wall may pass right over you
Quoting Squid28:


Never be able to look at jug wine the same way for the reest of my life...


...cheese toast and cheap wine, that's liv'n.
24hr Shear Tendency

Rough stuff ahead!!

Winds keep dropping in Norfolk... airport is about 5 miles west of me.

Norfolk, Virginia (Airport)
Updated: 14 min 13 sec ago

77 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the NW

Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.63 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
Quoting DestinJeff:


You and me, Nea.

We're like two peas in a pod!


Oh you two are one in the same?? Had no idea!
:o)

But one of you is funny and the other not so much.


Quoting raggpr:
Gaston stay where you are because shear in front of u is going to kill u


Well if he is still moving at 5mph things may change quite a bit by the time he gets there.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Max sustained winds w/ Earl down to 85mph....wow! That's great news.

Gaston has a very slim chance of surviving, but highly unlikely. I'm writing him off.

I hope your right about Gaston, but any fragment can redevelope when it hits the gulf.
are these models right? seems strange. NHC says moving west
Quoting Capnbilll:

I hope your right about Gaston, but any fragment can redevelope when it hits the gulf.
Still a chance for that. Yep
00
WTPZ45 KNHC 031453
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010


THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH SOME
INDICATION OF INCREASED BANDING ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...AND 3.0...OR 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...TWO AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
USING THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE SUGGESTED WINDS JUST BELOW AND JUST ABOVE
35 KT. WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL IS SEEN EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE WE DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT THIS IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...IT DOES
INDICATE THAT INTENSITY IS NOT AS HIGH AS WHAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUGGEST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7
KT...THOUGH THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY
WHERE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS. THE DEPRESSION IS
BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. BY 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
WEAKENED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THE BREAK
IN THE RIDGE IS DEPICTED BY THE BAM DEEP MODEL AS RECURVING THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE PRIMARY MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREE. INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ADVECT WESTWARD IN
THE TRADEWINDS AS IT SLOWLY DECAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE MAY NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL. SSTS UNDER THE PATH OF THE
CYCLONE QUICKLY COOL TO BELOW 26C IN ABOUT A DAY...WHILE MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE
STATISTICAL MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...THOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
DO BRIEFLY CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL
STORM. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD ALLOW
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.0N 110.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.4N 111.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.6N 113.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 25 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 21.0N 117.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1200Z 20.8N 121.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED




other TD bit the dust


so its now TD 2E TD 6E TD 8E and now TD 10E


2007 was the last time we did this

and they where TD 3E TD 4E TD 5E and TD 13E
Looks like Earl's eye brushed the Carolina coast. I am thankful that it wasnt a more direct impact but now all eyes are on MA and the developing waves comming across the ATL which will not be influenced by frontal systems as much as a TS or Hurricane. I can report though that FEMA has got folks in place along the coast with supplies so those who were closest to the coast should be able to find any needed support.


For those who remember Katrina, this is a positive step in the right direction.
Quoting kshipre1:
are these models right? seems strange. NHC says moving west


No real storm to latch onto yet. Really need s to be a TD first.
541. 900MB
Quoting leo305:


yea you may get hurricane force gusts, in fact if the center keeps in this direction, the eye wall may pass right over you


Sure hope not. The trees out here are weak and untested since 2 gypsy moth outbreaks. Ready though!
*Cough, cough*

Ughhh, this flu is terrible. Anyways, I see we have 99L. I checked out the global models along with the statistical and dynamical envelope and I still don't get why they shoot 99L northward in such a hurry. Even the ECMWF shows that solution. I guess they've latched on to something that I have yet to see.
NEW BLOG
Quoting Capnbilll:

I hope your right about Gaston, but any fragment can redevelope when it hits the gulf.


NHC forecast the remnants to reform. Current model data and enviromental conditions support a reformation. Actually if you read StormW's blog yesterday you would see for the next 10 to 12 days that conditions are at optimal.
Quoting DestinJeff:


"fish-fish-fish-fish-fiiiiiiish-fish

fish-fish-fish-fish-fiiiiiiish-fish"

that is immature.

LMAO haha you're bad
new blog.
Model accuracy for Gaston in NM.. AVNI lead with 34.. gfs ensemble 2nd with 37nm error in the last 24 hrs, 63 over 48hrs. OFCL forecast a tight showing with 50, LGEM 52. LBAR 64, BamD 74, UKMET 81, GFDL 91, MM5E & XTRP 100, HWRF 137, CMC 156, NOGAPS 176
I think someone posted last night saying that Mr Gassy will be at 101mph in 84 or 102 hrs showed it on one of the models. I know they change but I thought I would just tell ya what someone said last night. We might need to watch it. Ya never know.
sheri
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
*Cough, cough*

Ughhh, this flu is terrible. Anyways, I see we have 99L. I checked out the global models along with the statistical and dynamical envelope and I still don't get why they shoot 99L northward in such a hurry. Even the ECMWF shows that solution. I guess they've latched on to something that I have yet to see.


Most people don't realize just how bad flu is. Get well soon!
Quoting angiest:


Most people don't realize just how bad flu is. Get well soon!
Thank you!
551. Jax82
Most of the heaviest rainbands are staying offshore, this is GOOD news!