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Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Fresh 93L..Landcane on Cloudsat.
Quoting wxchaser97:
A very early winter forecast by me that is likely to change, based on a warm neutral-weak el nino.
NOT OFFICIAL

Cold and snowy for me :) I like that forecast
A quick forecast before the 11pm advisory, full forecast/blog coming soon to theaters near you.
NOT OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
Quoting Doppler22:

Cold and snowy for me :) I like that forecast

It wouldn't be a terrible winter but I think the eastern part of the country will be cooler. Now my forecast may/will change as we get closer to winter.
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh 93L..Landcane on Cloudsat.

That's a lot of rain there......
506. beell
It's only a model. Certainly could not expect 50 knot upper level westerlies over the GOM for 384 hrs straight-right? Right??

18Z GFS 200mb - 384 hour loop
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh 93L..Landcane on Cloudsat.

It is a stronger system, similar to the 1993 storm but weaker luckily.
landcane from rainbow satellite:
Lake Michigan still warmer than the 2 decade average, which should help produce plenty of LES as long as it stays comparatively warm and the air masses work in our favor as well.



I don't normally agree with hurricane23, but agree that season is done with. Never thought I would say this mid September, but the fat lady is singing right now peeps.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Lake Michigan still warmer than the 2 decade average, which should help produce plenty of LES as long as it stays comparatively warm and the air masses work in our favor as well.




Which is why snow may be above average in our area but not by too much. Strange we are already talking about winter when it's the middle of September.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Which is why snow may be above average in our area but not by too much. Strange we are already talking about winter when it's the middle of September.


Yup, last year the lakes were warm in the winter, but the air masses were warm too, so the temperature differential wasn't big, meaning crap for snow. Hopefully this winter is a different story.
Quoting mcluvincane:
I don't normally agree with hurricane23, but agree that season is done with. Never thought I would say this mid September, but the fat lady is singing right now peeps.


lol, no she's not. I don't understand why people are saying that. How are conditions anymore hostile now than they were earlier in the season?
Quoting Slamguitar:


Yup, last year the lakes were warm in the winter, but the air masses were warm too, so the temperature differential wasn't big, meaning crap for snow. Hopefully this winter is a different story.

I think we should see a colder air mass but nothing is set in stone.

Quoting KoritheMan:


lol, no she's not. I don't understand why people are saying that. How are conditions anymore hostile now than they were earlier in the season?

They really aren't and the season isn't over yet. I think we should see a couple more storms before season's end.
I mean yes, our Cape Verde season may soon shut down, but that shouldn't come as a surprise considering it's nearly October. Geez guys...
Quoting lobdelse81:
I truly believe (just being realistic)that next year we have an above average chance of seeing a major hurricane hit the US. If not next year, then certainly 2014 (the midpoints in almost every decade have featured some pretty intense hurricanes that have hit the US):
1954/55: Connie, Diane, Carol, Edna, Hazel
1965: Betsy
1974/75: Carmen, Eloise
1985: Elena, Gloria
1995: Opal (this year launched us into our current active era)
2004/2005: we know what happened
These are examples just to name in the past 50 years.
I agree that we are going to see some sort of historical major hurricane event within this decade.
Call me a wish
Quoting mcluvincane:
I don't normally agree with hurricane23, but agree that season is done with. Never thought I would say this mid September, but the fat lady is singing right now peeps.
Call me a wishcaster or call me whatever, but mjo is coming back and we will see more action this year gar un teed.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I mean yes, our Cape Verde season may soon shut down, but that shouldn't come as a surprise considering it's nearly October. Geez guys...

Well of course it should since conditions are getting unfavorable, but yet the GFS develops a cv storm later in the latest run. The season as a whole isn't over and Caribbean/homegrown development is pretty likely.

Quoting unknowncomic:
Call me a wishCall me a wishcaster or call me whatever, but mjo is coming back and we will see more action this year gar un teed.

The central and western Caribbean has warm SST's and good TCHP so as long as shear is favorable we could see a system.
But I'll admit that the US trough barrier has returned, and given the climatological likelihood of more troughs, if the lower 48 is going to get hit again, it won't be through Cape Verde systems.
...LANE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 17
Location: 18.4°N 127.5°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 18.4N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 19.5N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 20.6N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 21.3N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 21.4N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 20.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Quoting KoritheMan:


lol, no she's not. I don't understand why people are saying that. How are conditions anymore hostile now than they were earlier in the season?


Seems to happen during every "calm" period after Sep 10th. God forbid the models aren't supporting anything either, cause we know they're always right...

Quoting wxchaser97:

Well of course it should since conditions are getting unfavorable, but yet the GFS develops a cv storm later in the latest run. The season as a whole isn't over and Caribbean/homegrown development is pretty likely.
I know most people automatically jump to "active season = landfalls" (which is true to an extent), but that's almost completely missing the point. In addition to what you said, there are also still plenty of opportunities for subtropical developments, and with them, a couple more hurricanes.
We will finish the list in November ,Oscar in September , Patty , Rafael , Sandy, Tony in October , and Valerie and William in November , and maybe a pop up storm or two in December . And lots of rain in the south , and maybe two major earthquakes around the world , and possible war US vs. the Middle East , if things don't get any better , God forbid. Please everyone take care of each other.

Quoting 1441114:
We will finish the list in November ,Oscar in September , Patty , Rafael , Sandy, Tony in October , and Valerie and William in November , and maybe a pop up storm or two in December . And lots of rain in the south , and maybe two major earthquakes around the world , and possible war US vs. the Middle East , if things don't get any better , God forbid. Please everyone take care of each other.
I know. I'm going to make my remaining time on Earth count for something!
While this is at 348 hours out, the GFS shows 2 more storms including a cv storm. Once we get closer to this other models may jump on so I don't think this season is over yet.
As many have already pointed out, models are incredibly divergent with the eventual track of Nadine in the long term. 00z Cycle out to 10 days is plotted below. Probably one of the greatest model spreads I have ever seen. The extreme divergence in the long run is a product of the rapidly evolving pattern over North America and the North Atlantic. Right now we have a growing weakness in the ridge from a weak passing shortwave which will pull Nadine northward for a time. After a few days, however, ridging will build in strong to the northwest of Nadine as a result of the large longwave trough over the Great Lakes region. This should push the storm southward eventually. However, it remains to be seen whether or not Nadine will retain tropical characteristics. The GFS and ECMWF seem to think so but they also initialize the storm much stronger and deeper than it likely is. I like the NHC's call for an extratropical transition in a couple days which matches up with what the hurricane models (HWRF and GFDL) are showing. Perhaps by the weekend we could see Nadine reacquire tropical characteristics, though a lot will depend on the track which is very uncertain at that time.

Quoting KoritheMan:
But I'll admit that the US trough barrier has returned, and given the climatological likelihood of more troughs, if the lower 48 is going to get hit again, it won't be through Cape Verde systems.

It's climatologically and historically unlikely to begin with.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's climatologically and historically unlikely to begin with.

I'm surprised you are still awake, don't you have school tomorrow? This year has shown anything can happen, best just to be prepared to matter what.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 34.2W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NADINE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AZORES ON
TUESDAY.
Someone called the storm going up the coast a "landcane"...interesting. The news is making this sound the same it does when we are having a tropical storm. We are expecting tropical rains, tropical storm force winds to low-end hurricane wind gusts, and tornadoes. I guess 93L plus ULL plus huge cold front is creating a very unusual storm. Dr. Forbes gives this area (Jersey Shore) a 4/10 'Torcon' score tomorrow. He said the winds at 5000 feet could be 80 mph. How much would that be at the surface?

Quoting wxchaser97:

This year has shown anything can happen, best just to be prepared to matter what.
You are told to have an annual contingency plan for a reason, you know... ;)
...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 17
Location: 33.9°N 34.2°W
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 34.6N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 35.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 36.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 37.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 36.7N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 35.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z 32.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 34.2W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NADINE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AZORES ON
TUESDAY.
why isn't anyone in chat tonight ta?
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE
THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
COLDER CLOUD TOPS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING NADINE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.

NADINE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED...AND IT IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OR 045 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY FOR A DAY OR SO TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF
SHOWING LESS DIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NADINE IN
3 TO 4 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD....THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
CYCLONE MOVES. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AND LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH NADINE SO FAR.

NADINE WILL BE MOVING OVER A LITTLE COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE STORM ABOUT
THE SAME STRENGTH AS THE CYCLONE DERIVES SOME ENERGY FROM MID-
LATITUDE SOURCES. WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE NADINE TO
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN NADINE MOVES SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NADINE
COULD BEGIN THE TRANSITION BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 34.6N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 35.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 36.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 37.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 36.7N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 35.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z 32.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting KoritheMan:

You are told to have an annual contingency plan for a reason, you know... ;)

I know but some people think they will be fine or storms never affect them and then one hits...
Quoting TomTaylor:
why isn't anyone in chat tonight ta?

I don't know, but I'm going to bed. Night.
Quoting TomTaylor:
why isn't anyone in chat tonight ta?

Would you like to go to chat? That is fine if so or if not.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know, but I'm going to bed. Night.
omg. night lame-o

Quoting wxchaser97:

Would you like to go to chat? That is fine if so or if not.
sure why not

EDIT: KoriTheMan, or any other members currently on the blog please feel free to join us in chat!
Guys....is the NHC webpage down (as well as every NOAA page)? I can't freakin get it to work at all!!!!!!

Then again it could just be me...because everytime I try to upload anything...internet is really slow or I get DNS error message. I've even tried resetting the server. Maybe the NOAA pages take more 'power' than the other websites...and my internet is incapable right now....

I am in the middle of trying to do a blog update...but if this keeps up I am cancelling...this really sucks....

543. JLPR2
Seems 92L left a little piece behind. Not sure if it is really a piece or the real low level spin.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Guys....is the NHC webpage down (as well as every NOAA page)? I can't freakin get it to work at all!!!!!!

Then again it could just be me...because everytime I try to upload anything...internet is really slow or I get DNS error message. I've even tried resetting the server. Maybe the NOAA pages take more 'power' than the other websites...and my internet is incapable right now....

I am in the middle of trying to do a blog update...but if this keeps up I am cancelling...this really sucks....


Yeah it's working for me, Link, but sometimes the page gets all glichty for me. I'm in the middle of an update too including my very early winter forecast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 34.2W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NADINE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AZORES ON
TUESDAY.

LOL...thanks for this info...I can't get into the NHC webpage still...If I can't in the next 30 minutes...I'll just have to try posting a partial blog update or somethin'...but I will be missing some usual detailed info in that case...
Tropical Storm Nadine:



Hurricane Lane:

Quoting hurricane23:


Season is just about over also. Very hostile conditions now encompassing most development regions basin wide. Maybe 1-2 sheared
Evening all.... just back in for a few mo. before bed... I agree with the main MDR area in the central ATL, but I'm not yet writing off chances in the WCar - at least not before the end of OCT, anyway. The fuel is still there, and I'd not be surprised if the one or two you mention end up a bit stronger than expected. However, I'd be quite glad not to have a Michelle suddenly spin up at the end of OCT....

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nadine has weakened a bit more according to ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012091800, , BEST, 0, 336N, 345W, 50, 989

I don't know though... Looks pretty good to me, earlier it didn't even look tropical:



I'd say there's probably about a 20% chance that Nadine's death, whenever it happens, will mark the end of the season in terms of named storms. I'm expecting 1 or 2 more from this point on.
Not sure I agree with the end of the season [I like the odds on one or two more in the Car], but even so, 14 systems isn't bad for what was expected to be on the skinny side of a normal season.
509 mcluvincane: ...season is done with. Never thought I would say this mid September...

...considering you've been hearing the fat lady sing since May.
Some month you're bound to be right, the 2012 AtlanticHurricaneSeason will be over...
...by February 2013 if nothin' else, what with it being unlikely that a Dec.2012 TropicalCyclone would last through all of January.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not sure I agree with the end of the season [I like the odds on one or two more in the Car], but even so, 14 systems isn't bad for what was expected to be on the skinny side of a normal season.


But look at how many storms really should have not been named this season...NHC padded it.

Not going to get into this argument tonight.

But the American public knows this was just like any other regular season.

Probably why only half of the American public believes in global warming.

Goodnight.
Quoting popartpete:
Someone called the storm going up the coast a "landcane"...interesting. The news is making this sound the same it does when we are having a tropical storm. We are expecting tropical rains, tropical storm force winds to low-end hurricane wind gusts, and tornadoes. I guess 93L plus ULL plus huge cold front is creating a very unusual storm. Dr. Forbes gives this area (Jersey Shore) a 4/10 'Torcon' score tomorrow. He said the winds at 5000 feet could be 80 mph. How much would that be at the surface?
About half, or 40-45 mph.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not sure I agree with the end of the season [I like the odds on one or two more in the Car], but even so, 14 systems isn't bad for what was expected to be on the skinny side of a normal season.

I think we could see 1-3 more systems before the season is done but yeah 14 is good for what was forecasted in the beginning.
I am going to call it a night as it is late, good night everyone. I still see some activity in the coming weeks, the season isn't over until November 30th anyway.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I am going to call it a night as it is late, good night everyone. I still see some activity in the coming weeks, the season isn't over until November 31st anyway.


30th*
Quoting Walshy:


But look at how many storms really should have not been named this season...NHC padded it.

Not going to get into this argument tonight.

But the American public knows this was just like any other regular season.

Probably why only half of the American public believes in global warming.

Goodnight.


...You kids and your conspiracies. It reads to me as though tropical cyclones have to be monsters to be considered even such if they don't make landfall. The only named storm I would say didn't deserve any name was Helene. Joyce even looked like a tropical cyclone, albeit a sickly one. Stop comparing these recent seasons to 2005, because that one was a dramatic outlier in every category, and not just in US landfalls.

This season's actually had a pretty high proportion of hurricanes, some of which may be bumped up a category upon inspection towards the end of the year (Gordon is strongly believed to have been a major, Ernesto was believed to have rapidly strengthened to category 2 - each with pretty good evidence in support of those beliefs; to a lesser degree, there has been controversy over Isaac's true intensity, and there are some that believe that Beryl indeed became a hurricane). Either way, this season's been a surprising one, and I do not believe there was any "padding".
Quoting KoritheMan:


30th*

Darn, bad memory and it's late.
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
thanks et, appreciate the effort. No, no chaser or anything, I keep records for for my son's Pop-Warner football team, from the sidelines on regular sheet paper, the reason I am looking for a better way to do this. It's good to know of this type of paper tho, and will keep it in mind. Thanks friend for the time for me.

Check almost any stationary store for Rite in the Rain products. They have many different styles of writing paper, from spiral pads to bound notebooks. The prices are fairly reasonable, you can use almost any kind of writing object in pouring rain, and they never run. They are universally used in police and search and rescue work.
Rite in the Rain
Quoting Neapolitan:
She's hanging in there in fourth spot, and should make it into third if she doesn't go weak non-tropical by tomorrow:


1 MICHAEL 16.4975
2 LESLIE 14.7500
3 ISAAC 9.4425
4 NADINE 8.8150
5 GORDON 8.1900
6 ERNESTO 7.6625
7 KIRK 7.5100
8 CHRIS 2.7675
9 DEBBY 2.4450
10 BERYL 2.1600
11 FLORENCE 1.4375
12 ALBERTO 1.3750
13 HELENE 0.4050
14 JOYCE 0.2450

2012


Nice pie!
Quoting angelafritz:


Nice pie!


Burning the midnight oil tonight? :D
Wish Gro was on to confirm if this behind 92L has achieved blob status:

Bazzinga!!! got my usual and very detailed blog update out in the last hour if anyone is still here....(if not...I guess the early-bird crowd at sunrise).

Talked about 93L...Nadine...92L....and everything else in the Atlantic arena. I think the discussion on 93L helps give some understanding on how a non-tropical system intensifies as much as 93L has....feel free to leave questions or comments....

Only reason I am still on here is insomnia gone rampant...and the fact that getting this update out took long from my lousy old PC and internet service. I just got a new PC that shouldn't hang up like this clunk-box...and maybe I will "fire" my current internet service provider for another while I am at it....
By the way...Kori and WxChaser97 also left good blogs too....and I hope 93L doesn't turn out to be so bad tomorrow...especially for the rest of my family who still lives in NC....

93L is one potent non-tropical system....
Good morning!

I'm now at university doing something tangentially related to atmospheric science but the main focus of the faculty has switched from atmospheric physics to atmospheric chemistry and palaeoclimate studies.

Never knew Nadine was pumping along for so long - maybe she will cause a significant upwelling in the northeastern Atlantic, influencing the positioning of the Azores high, and altering the steering tracks come October?
Good morning, Astro and everyone else. Looking forward to two nights in the fifties starting tonight. Day temps still in mid to upper 80s.
Good morning.Wave 92L passing mainly south of PR but scattered showers will be the rule today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
UPPER LOW/TUTT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST AT 10-15KT.
SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE BEEN
DETECTING EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PR AND USVI
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL HI-RES WRF
SUGGEST THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FROM 18/12Z THROUGH 18/22Z. DURING
THIS PERIOD...SOME POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE FLOODING WILL OCCUR AS
HEAVIEST BURSTS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS. FLASH FLOODING...
IF ANY...WILL BE IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY GRADUALLY INCR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
LCL ISLANDS WHILE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA MOVG ENE HAS REACHED ST.
CROIX. TIMING OF SHRA AT EACH TAF SITE IS TOUGH BUT MOST WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT SHRA WILL
CAUSE A COUPLE OF MVFR PDS. LLVL WIND GENERALLY E 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. TORRENTIAL
RAIN...LOW VISIBILITIES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 90 79 / 80 30 30 30
STT 88 79 89 80 / 70 30 40 40
Quoting jeffs713:
There's something happening here.
What it is ain't exactly clear.
There's a man with a gun over there.
Telling me i got to beware.

Its time we stop, hey, what's that sound?
Everybody look what's going down.

Paranoia strikes deep.
Into your heart it will creep.
It happens when you're always afraid.

Step out of line and the man comes to take you away.

...
Nice, one of the better songs written by Stephen Stills.
Here is a couple of my old favorites continuing on the same topic:

"Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself"
- FDR's First Inaugural Address, 1933

The Paradox of Tolerance:
"Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them."
- Karl Popper in "The Open Society and Its Enemies" (1945)
(more context here)
Good morning. IMO this is a little overhyped by the SPC, I really don't see anything big today:



We'll see. The biggest threats should be low topped convection capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and an isolated spin-up tornado.
South end of the line where the upper level energy is located is pretty intense this morning.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. IMO this is a little overhyped by the SPC, I really don't see anything big today:



We'll see. The biggest threats should be low topped convection capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and an isolated spin-up tornado.
Air looks too stable, humid, and not enough cold air aloft I guess to not produce a widespread event?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. IMO this is a little overhyped by the SPC, I really don't see anything big today...
You may be right but I hope this is not the start of a pattern and I do not see anything similar this winter, because it has a little bit of that "Storm of the Century" look to it.
Good morning everyone, Nadine isn't looking so tropical this morning.
Everyone have a great Tuesday!
What is this to the right moving west?

Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, Nadine isn't looking so tropical this morning.

I just hope she can hold out as long as she can for ACE purpose.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
By the way...Kori and WxChaser97 also left good blogs too....and I hope 93L doesn't turn out to be so bad tomorrow...especially for the rest of my family who still lives in NC....

93L is one potent non-tropical system....



There. Is no more 93L it's now ex 93L
Someone post a pic of Nadine currently.
Bout time the sun rises on her.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Someone post a pic of Nadine currently.
Bout time the sun rises on her.



Here is the link you can go too with some of you being so lazye too look it up on your own and post it on your own


Link


I don't mind I like when other people post'em for me to see...
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I just hope she can hold out as long as she can for ACE purpose.

At least to get to third place, if Nadine goes extra-tropical but reacquires tropical characteristics what happens to her ACE?
Is anyone else having problems with Nadine's floater? I just get a black screen where the satellite should be.
Quoting wxchaser97:
A very early winter forecast by me that is likely to change, based on a warm neutral-weak el nino.
NOT OFFICIAL


Actually, that makes a lot of sense and The Farmer's Almanac agrees with your prediction.

(Waits for attack for mentioning The Farmer's Almanac)
Another one bites the (Saharan) dust:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al922012.ren
Quoting Neapolitan:
Another one bites the (Saharan) dust:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al922012.ren

Didn't even know that little guy was still activated, still could try to do something later.
Quoting Eng1n3rd:


Actually, that makes a lot of sense and The Farmer's Almanac agrees with your prediction.

(Waits for attack for mentioning The Farmer's Almanac)
Noting that the OFA's long-term climate forecasting accuracy is slightly lower than throwing darts isn't an "attack"; it's just giving folks the information they need. ;-)

Looks to be an interesting week!
tropical gig, really dont have accurate records until the 60s, 92 got some work to do
Quoting Slamguitar:
Lake Michigan still warmer than the 2 decade average, which should help produce plenty of LES as long as it stays comparatively warm and the air masses work in our favor as well.





So, what's the likelihood of one of the Great Lakes region's famous November squalls forming over Lake Superior?
Quoting Eng1n3rd:


Actually, that makes a lot of sense and The Farmer's Almanac agrees with your prediction.

(Waits for attack for mentioning The Farmer's Almanac)

THE FARMER'S ALMANAC, that thing. Those maps are below dart throwing. I don't put anything into those but they are interesting to read and compare I guess.
I have the sorry crew on this morning(Tony,Allison,and Tucker Barnes).They aren't taking this as serious as one would think.If thunderstorms develop it could push 65-70mph winds to the surface and create power outages and damage to structures.Some structures are all ready fragile from past events.e have a 4 out 10 here in D.C for tornado probability.Hopefully the shield comes into handy..
Quoting Eng1n3rd:


So, what's the likelihood of one of the Great Lakes region's famous November squalls forming over Lake Superior?

Are you a Michigander too, just curious? With the lake waters being warmer than average all we need is a relatively cold air mass to move over the lakes and there will be squalls.
Quoting Eng1n3rd:


So, what's the likelihood of one of the Great Lakes region's famous November squalls forming over Lake Superior?


I think it's pretty likely. While great November squalls are relatively uncommon, we always get some form of sustained tropical storm force winds here in November from a relatively minor squall.
If Severe Weather ever had a feeling, I'm feeling it right now. It is extremely humid and warm here this morning under full sunshine.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Are you a Michigander too, just curious? With the lake waters being warmer than average all we need is a relatively cold air mass to move over the lakes and there will be squalls.


Former Michiganian, current Clevelander, moved from one snow belt to the other.
Also, while the GFS was correct in forecasting cold air, the snowcasters from a week or so ago were completely wrong. It's not snowing here, or even close....well it almost dropped below 0C last night at some time.
Quoting Eng1n3rd:


Former Michiganian, current Clevelander, moved from one snow belt to the other.

Ahhh, you're still actually not that far from me.
Quoting Eng1n3rd:


So, what's the likelihood of one of the Great Lakes region's famous November squalls forming over Lake Superior?
The warmer she is the more likely the "Gales of November" come early. I grew up south of Lake Erie, pretty much the same deal, warmer but with a shorter fetch.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ahhh, you're still actually not that far from me.


East side of the Mitten, I assume? I was from the K-zoo area before college
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If Severe Weather ever had a feeling, I'm feeling it right now. It is extremely humid and warm here this morning under full sunshine.

Good morning Cody, maybe severe weather has feeling.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I have the sorry crew on this morning(Tony,Allison,and Tucker Barnes).They aren't taking this as serious as one would think.If thunderstorms develop it could push 65-70mph winds to the surface and create power outages and damage to structures.Some structures are all ready fragile from past events.e have a 4 out 10 here in D.C for tornado probability.Hopefully the shield comes into handy..

Good morning Wash, hopefully today is not a big severe weather day for you guys.
Miami NWS Disco

WITH THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...HIGHS TODAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHICH ARE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
Quoting Eng1n3rd:


East side of the Mitten, I assume? I was from the K-zoo area before college

Yes, Metro Detroit is where I have been growing up for all my life. I don't know anyone in the west side of the state besides a few of my cousins at Grand Valley right now and wunderblogger Slamguitar is out there.
I guess Berg doesn't like the prospects of Nadine re-transitioning into a tropical cyclone on Day 5 and after. We will see what Pasch thinks at 15Z.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA/NC TO MD/EASTERN WV/SOUTHERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181249Z - 181445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF NC INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
VA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MD/EASTERN WV/SOUTHERN PA. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ONE OR MORE WATCHES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.

DISCUSSION...AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES
A STEADILY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA...WITH AMPLE
EARLY DAY PRESSURE FALLS OF 1+ IN/HR NOTED FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF
VA/MD INTO WESTERN PA/NY. EAST-NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW...A
NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SPINE INTO GA/AL.
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE DELMARVA VICINITY.

WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
WARM CONVEYOR-DRIVEN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN SOME AREAS...GRADUAL
/ALBEIT RELATIVELY MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL VA. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
WASHINGTON-DULLES AND GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC ARE ALREADY
INDICATIVE OF 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE WITH VIRTUALLY NIL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...ALONG WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED/RICH LOW-LEVEL SRH
ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2. POCKETS OF
STRONGER INSOLATION/HEATING...ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND A
STRONG WIND/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
INCREASE/MATURATION OF STRONG/SUSTAINED TSTMS BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES BECOMING A CONCERN.

..GUYER/HART.. 09/18/2012


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...I LM...RNK...
CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34858033 35628059 36448012 37967886 39777830 40217774
40157637 39797587 37197691 34997790 34587905 34858033

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
853 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LANIER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
CENTRAL LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT

* AT 851 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VALDOSTA...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOODY
AFB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Good morning all. Beautiful weather here in Key West. Has a fall feeling. In mid September this is a rarity. The forecast for this weekend is a 60% chance of rain. I better mow my lawn this week. May not get a chance this weekend.
Any one seen Levi latley?
Looks like they updated the map an hour ago..


I can honestly say I have never seen almost the entire east coast in at least a 2% risk for tornados..


Quoting yqt1001:
Also, while the GFS was correct in forecasting cold air, the snowcasters from a week or so ago were completely wrong. It's not snowing here, or even close....well it almost dropped below 0C last night at some time.

What do you consider completely wrong?

They got a pattern change correct.
They got the forecast of a front coming through correct.
They got the forecast of it being colder correct.

So they missed on the intensity of the cold. If that is all they missed 7 days out - they did VERY well. I'd love to see you do better.
Quoting ncstorm:
Looks like they updated the map an hour ago..


I can honestly say I have never seen almost the entire east coast in at least a 2% risk for tornados..


Nature hates me..(says to self)This will all pay off washingtonian in the winter..this will all pay off...
Does anyone know when the new sattelite data will be out for the public
Good morning, everyone. The passage of "93L" through central AL has been extremely...uneventful. :) Some scattered showers with a grand total of .16 inches so far. Stil a few scattered showers wandering around from an open wave over MS, but it appears that this wave is weakening as it moves east. The cold front should be through here sometime late this afternoon and finally get rid of this suffocating humidity. It looks like the air will be stable enough by the time of the frontal passage that it should also be a non-event in terms of storms.

Any idea why WU is still showing 92L and 93L as invests on the main tropical weather page? Naming 93L as an invest has to be the strangest thing done by the NHC this year.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nature hates me..(says to self)This will all pay off washingtonian in the winter..this will all pay off...


if the set up is still where these potents Lows are traveling up the east coast during winter and phasing with fronts, its going to be brutal..might turn you against snow
Right now its humid and windy outide with gray clouds some dark..I hope those strong winds that are forecast don't come to pass...
Quoting jeffs713:

What do you consider completely wrong?

They got a pattern change correct.
They got the forecast of a front coming through correct.
They got the forecast of it being colder correct.

So they missed on the intensity of the cold. If that is all they missed 7 days out - they did VERY well. I'd love to see you do better.

I don't think the GFS is the issue. It did a good of forecasting the pattern chage, Some bloggers got a little overexcited about some of the projected isotherms and started saying "Snow, Snow!". They were clearly wrong.
ex92 trying to get back on the map http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product =NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=ye
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC001-037-135-181430-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0354.120918T1334Z-120918T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 931 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SILER CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SNOW CAMP...
SUTPHIN...
SAXAPAHAW...
CANE CREEK RESERVOIR...
EFLAND...
HILLSBOROUGH...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 150 AND 270.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 164 AND 170.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 264 BETWEEN EXITS 378 AND 383.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE
SHELTER IF YOU HEAR OR SEE A TORNADO.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 7897 3576 7903 3563 7955 3588 7954
3618 7924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 230DEG 32KT 3577 7952

$$

BLAES
Quoting washingtonian115:
Right now its humid and windy outide with gray clouds some dark..I hope those strong winds that are forecast don't come to pass...


same here..but we might get some severe storms but you guys are in a higher risk than we are for high winds and tornados..
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

TORNADO WATCH 641 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-037-051-063-065-069-077-083-085-093-101-10 5-125-127-135-
145-153-163-165-181-183-185-191-195-182100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0641.120918T1345Z-120918T2100Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE CHATHAM CUMBERLAND
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GRANVILLE HALIFAX HARNETT
HOKE JOHNSTON LEE
MOORE NASH ORANGE
PERSON RICHMOND SAMPSON
SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE
WARREN WAYNE WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...RAH...

Quoting ncstorm:


same here..but we might get some severe storms but you guys are in a higher risk than we are for high winds and tornados..
We here in D.C seem to be the target as of late..
Quoting ncstorm:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC001-037-135-181430-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0354.120918T1334Z-120918T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 931 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SILER CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SNOW CAMP...
SUTPHIN...
SAXAPAHAW...
CANE CREEK RESERVOIR...
EFLAND...
HILLSBOROUGH...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 150 AND 270.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 164 AND 170.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 264 BETWEEN EXITS 378 AND 383.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE
SHELTER IF YOU HEAR OR SEE A TORNADO.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 7897 3576 7903 3563 7955 3588 7954
3618 7924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 230DEG 32KT 3577 7952

$$

BLAES


Quoting ncstorm:
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

TORNADO WATCH 641 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-037-051-063-065-069-077-083-085-093-101-10 5-125-127-135-
145-153-163-165-181-183-185-191-195-182100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0641.120918T1345Z-120918T2100Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE CHATHAM CUMBERLAND
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GRANVILLE HALIFAX HARNETT
HOKE JOHNSTON LEE
MOORE NASH ORANGE
PERSON RICHMOND SAMPSON
SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE
WARREN WAYNE WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...RAH...







Quoting washingtonian115:
Right now its humid and windy outide with gray clouds some dark..I hope those strong winds that are forecast don't come to pass...

It looked like that here in AL last evening...and then very little happened. I'm hoping the same thing happens for you.
wow..the red circles are just going to increase bigger and northward as the day goes on..

638. MahFL
Ex 92L seems to be making a comeback.
This shear map has a large area of 5kts shear, I have not seen that all season.

Quoting sar2401:

It looked like that here in AL last evening...and then very little happened. I'm hoping the same thing happens for you.
I hope your right because I don't want to clean up damage and go without power.Well at least if we go without power it won't be that bad this time around as the high tomorrow will be 70 and not 95+degree heat with high humidity like we were left with after the other storms..
Quoting islander101010:
ex92 trying to get back on the map http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&pro duct =NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=ye

I don't think ex-92L is coming back from the dead. It has been officially deactivated and the pending cold front is going to drag a lot of dry air into the Gulf and northern Caribbean over the next two days.
641. MahFL
Quoting belizeit:
Does anyone know when the new sattelite data will be out for the public


Which new sat data ?
Quoting unknowncomic:
What is this to the right moving west?



Cut off low developing near 35N 57W. It does get over warm waters and models are generating quite a bit of convection in its core. It drops to the left side of an omega block developing in the southern stream of the westerlies, with Nadine forming the right side of the block.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope your right because I don't want to clean up damage and go without power.Well at least if we go without power it won't be that bad this time around as the high tomorrow will be 70 and not 95+degree heat with high humidity like we were left with after the other storms..

It looks like the remnant low that's causing the storms in GA and the Panhandle is moving more east than north. If that continues, one piece of the pie needed for severe storms won't be arriving on the east coast in time to co-phase with the low advancing east from the cold front, which should limit the severe weather threat.
Looks like Florida's first dry cold front will sweep through next week!
!!:)

Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like Florida first dry cold front will sweep through next week!
Good morning everyone. We've already had a couple of real nice thunderstorms blow in off the Gulf here in Madeira Beach. I was noticing on the radars that the line out in the Gulf has been growing steadily maybe adding to our rain totals later.

Link
Sounds like an upgrade to moderate risk still could happen. Excerpt from 8 a.m. SPC Convective Outlook for today...
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE RISK
AREA. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ALONG A CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE DC-BWI-PHL-NYC AREAS. HERE...EFFECTIVE HELICITY
VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 FAVORS THE RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATION.
NEVERTHELESS...THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR WILL BE MONITORED FOR
TRENDS SUGGESTING A GREATER RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/18/2012

Click image below for complete 8 a.m. convective outlook. Yellow is 10% tornado probability risk area.


Best not to be fooled by 500-1000j/kg. Probably enough instability considering the shear factors.
So whats the haps with this second half of the season. Is this the end already ? Seems awfully quiet in the MDR. Is Africa no longer producing waves ?
Quoting jeffs713:

What do you consider completely wrong?

They got a pattern change correct.
They got the forecast of a front coming through correct.
They got the forecast of it being colder correct.

So they missed on the intensity of the cold. If that is all they missed 7 days out - they did VERY well. I'd love to see you do better.



They ignored climatology, GFS forecasted surface temperatures, and many other things, all in favor of following a 540 line, and faulty GFS readings of inches of snow at 45F.
Its not a big deal, but they didnt exactly do that great, im not sure if i would call them snowcasters, not sure anyone really thought it would snow, they were just jumping on the GFS...It was long term
anyways, no big deal.

It was cool to look at.
Quoting msphar:
So whats the haps with this second half of the season. Is this the end already ? Seems awfully quiet in the MDR. Is Africa no longer producing waves ?

Probably a couple more storms before seasons end. The season is not over and the US could still get hit. Africa is still producing waves just conditions are becoming less favorable but anything can happen.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



They ignored climatology, GFS forecasted surface temperatures, and many other things, all in favor of following a 540 line, and faulty GFS readings of inches of snow at 45F.
Its not a big deal, but they didnt exactly do that great, im not sure if i would call them snowcasters, not sure anyone really thought it would snow, they were just jumping on the GFS...It was long term
anyways, no big deal.

It was cool to look at.

I said it would be cool to see snow but it is the middle of September so it wouldn't happen.
652. MTWX
Quoting sar2401:
Good morning, everyone. The passage of "93L" through central AL has been extremely...uneventful. :) Some scattered showers with a grand total of .16 inches so far. Stil a few scattered showers wandering around from an open wave over MS, but it appears that this wave is weakening as it moves east. The cold front should be through here sometime late this afternoon and finally get rid of this suffocating humidity. It looks like the air will be stable enough by the time of the frontal passage that it should also be a non-event in terms of storms.

Any idea why WU is still showing 92L and 93L as invests on the main tropical weather page? Naming 93L as an invest has to be the strangest thing done by the NHC this year.


We got almost 3" at my place between about 5 pm yesterday through this morning from this system!
Ok "anything can happen" I'll buy that.

However we have a bunch of nothing happening out there. I hope it stays that way.

MSLP and surface wind, SPC mesoanalysis pages, EC sector


Most unstable CAPE, CIN (convective inhibition), and Effective Bulk shear in knots.

(These images will update. I hope)
Quoting wxchaser97:

I said it would be cool to see snow but it is the middle of September so it wouldn't happen.


Lots of locations in northern Minnesota dropped to 32F overnight..no moisture around, though.
Quoting msphar:
Ok "anything can happen" I'll buy that.

However we have a bunch of nothing happening out there. I hope it stays that way.

I hope nothing happens, Isaac was enough for people.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



They ignored climatology, GFS forecasted surface temperatures, and many other things, all in favor of following a 540 line, and faulty GFS readings of inches of snow at 45F.
Its not a big deal, but they didnt exactly do that great, im not sure if i would call them snowcasters, not sure anyone really thought it would snow, they were just jumping on the GFS...It was long term
anyways, no big deal.

It was cool to look at.

7 days out, I'd still judge getting a pattern change, frontal passage, and cooldown correct as "good". Missing the intensity a tad, and maybe misjudging precip - that will happen on a 7-day forecast.

Here in Houston, the NWS office rarely places anything more than a 50% chance of rain more than 5 days out for the same reason - it is just that hard to call. If I see a forecast for freezing temps 7 days out, I just mentally make a note of it and check again in 3 days. I don't take it "seriously" until 2 days out, by which time the front projected to push the cold air through has already formed.

As another case in point - If I followed every 7 day forecast, and judged them as "right" or "wrong" based on temps and precip, I would find they are wrong a majority of the time. If I went by overall patterns and large-scale changes - I would find they are right a vast majority of the time. On the same page, if I did the same thing for 2 and 3 day forecasts... the NWS would be right a majority of the time on temps (allowing them a 5-degree window).

My point is that saying they were "completely" wrong with a 7-day forecast is kinda like accusing someone of being a terrible prognosticator of football scores for Sunday's game... on Monday a week before.
Quoting Progster:


Lots of locations in northern Minnesota dropped to 32F overnight..no moisture around, though.
Dropped down to 72 here in south Florida.....lol.....Maybe a record high today of 91.....Yuck
I think it'll be more of a straight-line wind threat for the east coast south of VA.. if tornado's were to form it'll be from the thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.
WHAT IT BOILS DOWN TO, BE SAFE N KEEP A EYE OUT... just my 2cents
000
WTNT34 KNHC 181439
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 32.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 181439
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 127.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 90SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 127.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.9W

Lane down to Tropical Storm.

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE EYE OF LANE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE
SOUTH...IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER EASIER. ALTHOUGH THE EYE
HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT...THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A REDUCTION IN THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND
T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THAT LANE RECENTLY SHOWED AN EYE
FEATURE...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. LANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE
NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE LIFTS IT POLEWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM MOTION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING ENSUES. BY
24 HOURS...THE SHALLOW VORTEX OF A SEVERELY WEAKENED LANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HURRICANE
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM TV15.

STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS LANE MOVES OVER SHARPLY COOLER SSTS OF LESS THAN 22C...
AND ALSO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
MORE THAN 25 KT. LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER FOR
BOTH SCENARIOS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 20.1N 127.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 20.9N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 21.5N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting Progster:


Lots of locations in northern Minnesota dropped to 32F overnight..no moisture around, though.


The usual cold spot in northern Minnesota (where an observer is located) reported 20 degrees overnight. Many reports of mid-20s. Embarrass' report this morning @ 06:00 Hi/Lo/Precip:

EMBM5: EMBARRASS: DH0600/ 51 / 20 / 0.00

Morning cooperative reports:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=dlh& product=RTP&issuedby=DLH

Even had some 20's and low 30's inland across northern Wisconsin. Luckily, being close to the big Lake, I had 39 for low. More cold forecast for tonight. My tomatoes are not quite ready.
663. MahFL
I recall Jim Cantore saying there would be snow in the Great Lakes this week.......
Quoting msphar:
So whats the haps with this second half of the season. Is this the end already ? Seems awfully quiet in the MDR. Is Africa no longer producing waves ?


I belive that the Cape Verde season is over. I don't expect anything to form in the next 7 days. I expect to see 3-5 more storms. From the period of 9-25 to 10-31. Need to watch the Western Caribbean, GOM, and off the SE coast to the Bahamas. I also think we will see a meaninless storm form out in the middle of the Atlantic.
Quoting 47n91w:


The usual cold spot in northern Minnesota (where an observer is located) reported 20 degrees overnight. Many reports of mid-20s. Embarrass' report this morning @ 06:00 Hi/Lo/Precip:

EMBM5: EMBARRASS: DH0600/ 51 / 20 / 0.00

Morning cooperative reports:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=dlh& amp; product=RTP&issuedby=DLH

Even had some 20's and low 30's inland across northern Wisconsin. Luckily, being close to the big Lake, I had 39 for low. More cold forecast for tonight. My tomatoes are not quite ready.


Any record lows?
Quoting MahFL:
I recall Jim Cantore saying there would be snow in the Great Lakes this week.......

Whoa, when did he say that, where would it be, and how much?
My main interest is the cape verde stuff. I'm happy to hear that aspect is nearing its end or ended.
NASA mission on Thursday for Nadine with takeoff on Wednesday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT TUE 18 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA872--
A. 20/0000Z
B. NA872 0314A NADINE
C. 19/1800Z
D. 37.0N 31.6W
E. 20/0000Z TO 20/1245Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FEET
G. PATTERN: 6 E-W LEGS IN BOX 600 NM
SQUARE, ENTRY POINT 32.0N 36.0W
78 DROPSONDE RELEASES
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
UNLESS MISSION IN ITEM 1 ABOVE CANCELS,
IN WHICH CASE NEW TAKEOFF TIME WILL BE
20/1230Z.

Where is FL lol CMC 132 to 144HR Big rain!!

92w Long Floater, Rainbow Loop


Quoting clwstmchasr:


Any record lows?


Possible, although in that area, this time of year, those are reasonable minimum temps. The local NWS office didn't release any record statements this morning, at least not yet. First frost across the inland areas of my county is September 15th. Despite my protests, this is right on time.

There was a record report from yesterday morning:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
124 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 41 SET IN 1958.

There were even lake-effect rain and clouds in the forecast along the lake shore counties overnight due to the cold air coming across the warm lake surface. Not sure why, but instead we had clear skies overnight. Western Lake Superior doesn't seem very warm, it may not provide the usual protection from cold fall nights this year.
I don't know that I'd call CV season dead; this thing (P29L) moving off of Africa has a slight chance, while the blob to its east (P30L) actually has a better chance:

P29L

P30L

I'm not saying either will develop, and I'm not saying that even if they do they'll come anywhere near anyone. I'm just highlighting the fact that there are still waves moving offshore, and conditions are still good enough.

24-Hour Rainfall Total
(as of 11:00 a.m. EDT)
Knoxville, Tenn.
5.63 inches
Chattanooga, Tenn.
5.30 inches
Oak Ridge, Tenn.
4.63 inches
London, Ky.
3.77 inches
Asheville, N.C.
3.65 inches
Huntington, W.Va.
2.58 inches
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
NASA mission on Thursday for Nadine with takeoff on Wednesday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT TUE 18 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA872--
A. 20/0000Z
B. NA872 0314A NADINE
C. 19/1800Z
D. 37.0N 31.6W
E. 20/0000Z TO 20/1245Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FEET
G. PATTERN: 6 E-W LEGS IN BOX 600 NM
SQUARE, ENTRY POINT 32.0N 36.0W
78 DROPSONDE RELEASES
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
UNLESS MISSION IN ITEM 1 ABOVE CANCELS,
IN WHICH CASE NEW TAKEOFF TIME WILL BE
20/1230Z.



well spent taxpayers money
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
677. MahFL
Quoting wxchaser97:

Whoa, when did he say that, where would it be, and how much?


A week ago, and he was 100 % wrong.
678. MahFL
From Jim, going for snow still @ weekend.

"Very deep Long Wave pattern setting up for USA w/HOT WX 4PAC northwest &cold w/lght #snow 4Great Lakes by next weekend:"
Quoting 47n91w:


Possible, although in that area, this time of year, those are reasonable minimum temps. The local NWS office didn't release any record statements this morning, at least not yet. First frost across the inland areas of my county is September 15th. Despite my protests, this is right on time.

There was a record report from yesterday morning:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
124 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 41 SET IN 1958.

There were even lake-effect rain and clouds in the forecast along the lake shore counties overnight due to the cold air coming across the warm lake surface. Not sure why, but instead we had clear skies overnight. Western Lake Superior doesn't seem very warm, it may not provide the usual protection from cold fall nights this year.


That record low was actually from August 17, and, knowing how cold they are, I am still surprised that 41 F was a record low in International Falls on that date.