WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Category 1 Hurricane Blanca Losing Strength as it Heads Towards Baja Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:18 PM GMT on June 07, 2015

Hurricane Blanca, a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds at 11 am EDT Sunday, is steadily losing strength as it heads north-northwest at 12 mph towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Blanca has lost its eye, and the cloud pattern has assumed an elongated oval shape in the face of wind shear that has risen to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots. Cooler waters and a drier surrounding air mass should continue to cause steady weakening, and Blanca should be a weak tropical storm when it makes landfall in Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Monday. Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula will likely see winds no stronger than 50 mph as Blanca makes its closest approach, and heavy rain rains will be the main threat to Mexico's Baja Peninsula from Blanca. Moisture from Blanca will flow into Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico beginning on Tuesday, bringing localized rains of 1 - 2 inches. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Blanca on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Hurricane Blanca as seen on June 5, 2015 from the International Space Station. Image credit: Terry Virts.


Figure 2. Predicted total precipitation from the 06Z Sunday run of the GFDL model. Widespread areas of 2 -4" were forecast along the Baja Peninsula. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Record-early tropical-storm impacts possible in Baja California
Should Blanca deliver winds of tropical-storm strength to Baja California, it would be the earliest such occurrence since the beginning of modern tropical cyclone records for the Northeast Pacific in 1949. Between 1949 - 2014, only two tropical cyclones have made it within 100 miles of Baja California prior to July. One of these was a tropical depression in 1993 that slid north along the eastern coast of the peninsula, dissipating just east of La Paz. The other was a hurricane that cut just south of the peninsula at minimal Category 1 strength on June 14, 1958. The earliest named storm to hit Baja was Tropical Storm Calvin of 1993, which made landfall south of La Paz on July 8 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. This year looks set to carve many more marks in the history of Northeast Pacific tropical cyclones, given the unusually warm SSTs that prevail as well as the continued strengthening of El Niño, which favors hurricane development in this basin.


Figure 3. Tropical cyclones observed between January and June since modern records began in the Northeast Pacific (1949). Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks.

New Northeast Pacific disturbance may develop near Mexican coast
An area of low pressure has formed in the Pacific a few hundred miles southwest of Mexico/Guatemala border, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. The 00Z Sunday run of the European and UKMET models predicted that this disturbance would develop into a tropical depression by Friday and begin bringing heavy rains to the southeast coast of Mexico by Thursday. The Sunday morning runs of the GFS model did not show the disturbance developing. In their 8 am EDT Sunday tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 60%, respectively. It is possible that moisture from this disturbance could flow northwards into the southwest Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche early next week, boosting the chances of a tropical disturbance capable of forming into a tropical depression there.

Links
Live streaming camera on the very southern tip of Baja California.

Another camera is just east of this one, on the Bay (Bahia) of San Lucas at Sunset Da Monalisa.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Drs M and H
bianca.california.ho
Quoting 208. Xulonn:

I would very much like to see your desire for less climate trolling and responses by science-aware defenders of truth that often clutter up the Masters/Henson blog happen, Teddy.

However, unlike regular trolling for attention, AGW/CC denialist trolling has a bigger purpose - spreading the anti-science propaganda of the denialist community.

Many people feel that lies, misinformation, pseudoscience and bad science falsely stated as true or valid should not go unchallenged. When someone posts the same untruths for the 20th time, it is no long simply expressing an "opinion" - it is trolling and disrupting a blog.

Dr. Rood's Climate blog is much more science-oriented than this blog with respect to the commenters (who are now called "bloggers" in common usage just like the person who wrote the blog - the original meaning of "blogger). This blog seems to be like a sandbox in a playground where knowledgeable as well as poorly-informed weather and tropical and severe weather fans hang out and have fun pursuing their interests and interacting with each other. There are a lot of excellent amateur and professional meteorologists here, and I enjoy reading their enthusiastic debates when the likelihood of severe weather increases. As a matter of fact, I am in awe of the knowledge and analytical of some of the commenters here.

Regarding your request, over at Dr. Rood's blog, we discuss climate science and related weather topics - and like here, banter a bit as "cyber-friends." The Rood Regulars do not condemn intelligent questions and the expression of skepticism based on logic and limited knowledge, and have put a lot of effort into educating the less knowledgeable. But when a troll not only fails to try to learn about climate, but refuses to engage in a discussion, their posts are often usually flagged into oblivion.

So, unfortunately for you, some of them came over here, and found a place where they can freely post their repeatedly debunked misinformation and falsehoods. A few trolls have discovered that their is a high level of tolerance for their antics by the regulars here, and they are having a field day as they thumb their noses at those of you who would like a more civil and focused discussion.

The only way those of you will get rid of the climate trolls is to not tolerate trolling. Simply asking people who know and discuss climate science to shut up and stop their defense of truth and science will not work. The regulars at this blog got rid of the hurricane trolls, but seem to be unable to deal with climate trolls.

At Dr.Rood's blog, se greatly reduced - almost eliminated - the trolling problem. Personally, I also flag actual trolling here, but I most certainly do not flag honest and well-grounded questions and opinions, and most certainly I do not flag anyone just for posting. Some of the trolls also contribute to honest weather discussions, and I will plus their comments if I "like" them (which is the criteria for plussing - not that you necessarily "agree" with the comment).

So you'll have to deal with the denialist trolls, Teddy - don't blame the defenders of science and truth for cluttering up these comments.


Well said and makes complete sense. But I will have to disagree with you when you say trolls ( you know who) are allowed to go unchallenged.You guys OVER challenge him and then when he stops, yall keep on about it and continue demeaning him. I have seen it. Just flag him and go on if you know that he is willfully trying to aggravate you for no reason. I personally have thought that he believes what he says, and therefore is not trying to just aggravate somebody, but I could be wrong. I am a retired nurse and i cant help it when I try to save him. I will try to stop that. Its just that when i see the overkill and not just flag and go on, the entire message gets lost and i go into save mode.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3294
A commentor is not a blogger. A blogger writes Blogs, or posts.


We have thousands of commenters, but bloggers write.




Strong line of thunderstorms racing across northern Illinois this morning .. dumped .6 inches in just under 20 minutes ..
Quoting 4. Patrap:

A commentor is not a blogger. A blogger writes Blogs, or posts.


We have thousands of commenters, but bloggers write.







Good blog.
Quoting 6. Grothar:



Good blog.



Piggly Wig and Piggly Wog
Went outside to write a blog
When the weather turned to gray
They kept on blogging anyway


Still think this season will not be as quiet as they say. Just a FEELING based on no facts that I can tell.
Quoting 6. Grothar:



Good blog.


Guten blogen to you as well.
Quoting 6. Grothar:



Good blog.


Good blob.. what blob? I don't see a blob...

Thanks Fella's!
Quoting 3. K8eCane:

Quoting 208. Xulonn:

I would very much like to see your desire for less climate trolling and responses by science-aware defenders of truth that often clutter up the Masters/Henson blog happen, Teddy.

However, unlike regular trolling for attention, AGW/CC denialist trolling has a bigger purpose - spreading the anti-science propaganda of the denialist community.

Many people feel that lies, misinformation, pseudoscience and bad science falsely stated as true or valid should not go unchallenged. When someone posts the same untruths for the 20th time, it is no long simply expressing an "opinion" - it is trolling and disrupting a blog.

Dr. Rood's Climate blog is much more science-oriented than this blog with respect to the commenters (who are now called "bloggers" in common usage just like the person who wrote the blog - the original meaning of "blogger). This blog seems to be like a sandbox in a playground where knowledgeable as well as poorly-informed weather and tropical and severe weather fans hang out and have fun pursuing their interests and interacting with each other. There are a lot of excellent amateur and professional meteorologists here, and I enjoy reading their enthusiastic debates when the likelihood of severe weather increases. As a matter of fact, I am in awe of the knowledge and analytical of some of the commenters here.

Regarding your request, over at Dr. Rood's blog, we discuss climate science and related weather topics - and like here, banter a bit as "cyber-friends." The Rood Regulars do not condemn intelligent questions and the expression of skepticism based on logic and limited knowledge, and have put a lot of effort into educating the less knowledgeable. But when a troll not only fails to try to learn about climate, but refuses to engage in a discussion, their posts are often usually flagged into oblivion.

So, unfortunately for you, some of them came over here, and found a place where they can freely post their repeatedly debunked misinformation and falsehoods. A few trolls have discovered that their is a high level of tolerance for their antics by the regulars here, and they are having a field day as they thumb their noses at those of you who would like a more civil and focused discussion.

The only way those of you will get rid of the climate trolls is to not tolerate trolling. Simply asking people who know and discuss climate science to shut up and stop their defense of truth and science will not work. The regulars at this blog got rid of the hurricane trolls, but seem to be unable to deal with climate trolls.

At Dr.Rood's blog, se greatly reduced - almost eliminated - the trolling problem. Personally, I also flag actual trolling here, but I most certainly do not flag honest and well-grounded questions and opinions, and most certainly I do not flag anyone just for posting. Some of the trolls also contribute to honest weather discussions, and I will plus their comments if I "like" them (which is the criteria for plussing - not that you necessarily "agree" with the comment).

So you'll have to deal with the denialist trolls, Teddy - don't blame the defenders of science and truth for cluttering up these comments.


Well said and makes complete sense. But I will have to disagree with you when you say trolls ( you know who) are allowed to go unchallenged.You guys OVER challenge him and then when he stops, yall keep on about it and continue demeaning him. I have seen it. Just flag him and go on if you know that he is willfully trying to aggravate you for no reason. I personally have thought that he believes what he says, and therefore is not trying to just aggravate somebody, but I could be wrong. I am a retired nurse and i cant help it when I try to save him. I will try to stop that. Its just that when i see the overkill and not just flag and go on, the entire message gets lost and i go into save mode.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3294



Whats the definition of a Troll? In your humble opinion?
Quoting 7. K8eCane:




Piggly Wig and Piggly Wog
Went outside to write a blog
When the weather turned to gray
They kept on blogging anyway


Still think this season will not be as quiet as they say. Just a FEELING based on no facts that I can tell.


Same thing. That is why I kept my count so high on Max's list.
Quoting 10. trunkmonkey:



Whats the definition of a Troll? In your humble opinion?


Im curious as to why you ask but i'll answer anyway. MY definition of a troll is someone who tries to start arguments. And may i ask yours?
Quoting 4. Patrap:

A commentor is not a blogger. A blogger writes Blogs, or posts.


We have thousands of commenters, but bloggers write.





Mornin Pat..This is true..I have been here a long time and have not actually posted a blog...I like learning, but do not have time to blog...I,m lucky I can even participate.
Quoting 9. indianrivguy:



Good blob.. what blob? I don't see a blob...

Thanks Fella's!


Har! Yes, just to clarify, Grothar is the senior blobber on this blog.
Quoting 10. trunkmonkey:



Whats the definition of a Troll? In your humble opinion?


In Internet slang, a troll is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.
Excellent post. When we allow lies and mistruths to go unchallenged, we facilitate the spread of those lies and mistruths. Liars need to be called out, especially when it involves one of the greatest challenges facing mankind today.

Quoting 3. K8eCane:

Quoting 208. Xulonn:

I would very much like to see your desire for less climate trolling and responses by science-aware defenders of truth that often clutter up the Masters/Henson blog happen, Teddy.

However, unlike regular trolling for attention, AGW/CC denialist trolling has a bigger purpose - spreading the anti-science propaganda of the denialist community.

Many people feel that lies, misinformation, pseudoscience and bad science falsely stated as true or valid should not go unchallenged. When someone posts the same untruths for the 20th time, it is no long simply expressing an "opinion" - it is trolling and disrupting a blog.

Dr. Rood's Climate blog is much more science-oriented than this blog with respect to the commenters (who are now called "bloggers" in common usage just like the person who wrote the blog - the original meaning of "blogger). This blog seems to be like a sandbox in a playground where knowledgeable as well as poorly-informed weather and tropical and severe weather fans hang out and have fun pursuing their interests and interacting with each other. There are a lot of excellent amateur and professional meteorologists here, and I enjoy reading their enthusiastic debates when the likelihood of severe weather increases. As a matter of fact, I am in awe of the knowledge and analytical of some of the commenters here.

Regarding your request, over at Dr. Rood's blog, we discuss climate science and related weather topics - and like here, banter a bit as "cyber-friends." The Rood Regulars do not condemn intelligent questions and the expression of skepticism based on logic and limited knowledge, and have put a lot of effort into educating the less knowledgeable. But when a troll not only fails to try to learn about climate, but refuses to engage in a discussion, their posts are often usually flagged into oblivion.

So, unfortunately for you, some of them came over here, and found a place where they can freely post their repeatedly debunked misinformation and falsehoods. A few trolls have discovered that their is a high level of tolerance for their antics by the regulars here, and they are having a field day as they thumb their noses at those of you who would like a more civil and focused discussion.

The only way those of you will get rid of the climate trolls is to not tolerate trolling. Simply asking people who know and discuss climate science to shut up and stop their defense of truth and science will not work. The regulars at this blog got rid of the hurricane trolls, but seem to be unable to deal with climate trolls.

At Dr.Rood's blog, se greatly reduced - almost eliminated - the trolling problem. Personally, I also flag actual trolling here, but I most certainly do not flag honest and well-grounded questions and opinions, and most certainly I do not flag anyone just for posting. Some of the trolls also contribute to honest weather discussions, and I will plus their comments if I "like" them (which is the criteria for plussing - not that you necessarily "agree" with the comment).

So you'll have to deal with the denialist trolls, Teddy - don't blame the defenders of science and truth for cluttering up these comments.


Well said and makes complete sense. But I will have to disagree with you when you say trolls ( you know who) are allowed to go unchallenged.You guys OVER challenge him and then when he stops, yall keep on about it and continue demeaning him. I have seen it. Just flag him and go on if you know that he is willfully trying to aggravate you for no reason. I personally have thought that he believes what he says, and therefore is not trying to just aggravate somebody, but I could be wrong. I am a retired nurse and i cant help it when I try to save him. I will try to stop that. Its just that when i see the overkill and not just flag and go on, the entire message gets lost and i go into save mode.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3294

Quoting 151. JohnLonergan (Frome the previous blog entry):


No, it was a standing joke with some students to call WPI "das polytechnische Institut" because of a large number of German born and educated professors./em>
Was "Gompei the Goat" the mascot of Worcester Polytechnic Institute (statue is new)...

when you were a student atWPI?


Quoting 10. trunkmonkey:



Whats the definition of a Troll? In your humble opinion?


Im curious as to why you ask but i'll answer anyway. MY definition of a troll is someone who tries to start arguments. And may i ask yours?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
DEPRESSION ARB01-2015
17:30 PM IST June 7 2015
============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved north northwestwards and now lays centered near 15.8N 68.3E, about 580 km southwest of Mumbai, 560 km south southwest of Veraval and 1150 km southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.

It would move north northwestwards and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between 6.0N & 21.5N, 60.0E & 74.0E, coastal Karnataka, extreme northern Kerala and Lakshadweep. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -90C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is about 20-25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough around the center. The central pressure of the depression is 1003 hpa.

The sea surface temperature is 30-32C, ocean thermal energy is about 100-120 kj/cm2, low level convergence is (15-20) x 10-5 second-1, upper level divergence is about (20-30) x10-5 second-1, the low level relative vorticity is about (10-15)x10-5 second-1, vertical wind shear is moderate (20-30 knots). Upper tropospheric ridge lies along 20.0N. There is trough in westerlies in middle troposphere to the west of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation lies in phase 2 with amplitude >1 and is favorable for intensification of the system.
Quoting 10. trunkmonkey:


Whats the definition of a Troll? In your humble opinion?
I accept the definition that Whitewabit posted. I strongly believe that what I and other science-minded folks call climate trolling here is done not to further the quest for knowledge, but to create false doubt.

Especially when the comments are repeated posting of dis-proven or debunked information promulgated by the FF-funded denialist community. This campaign of "manufactured doubt" is run by the same media propaganda experts who were pushing lies about the dangers of tobacco smoking, asbestos-related lung disease and other disinformation campaigns.
Quoting 14. KingofNewOrleans:



Har! Yes, just to clarify, Grothar is the senior blobber on this blog.
Yep...We have breached this topic quite a few times over years...His seniority is widely recognized. No amount of research has be able to determine the age of this enigma known as the Grothar, but current estimates predate the known Universe by 311 trillion 40 billion (311,040,000,000,000) earth years....give or take a few 100 million...The quest continues..
Blanca still has a nice eye:

Just a little reminder before things get to far along .

Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic.
No monomania.
No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.
Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
No spamming.
No spamming.
Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.
Thank you all and wish you a great day!!!!
The cold wake left by Hurricane Blanca has been observable on SST maps from Remote Sensing Systems for a few days now. It looks like, despite 31C waters at the surface and 26C waters down to 100m, Blanca was able to cool values down to <19C! It's no wonder then that the storm fell apart. This is probably the most extreme case of upwelling I've heard of.

June update peaking @ 2.3C according to the NMME. Spring Barrier gone.





Classic El Nino.

Quoting 10. trunkmonkey:



Whats the definition of a Troll? In your humble opinion?
If I may, allow me a pair of tropical weather-related analogies that might help you better differentiate between the two:

NON-TROLLISH COMMENT: I know that tropical cyclones generally spin counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, and vice-versa in the SH. But has there ever been an instance where a tropical cyclone has gone against that? That is, has a NH cyclone ever spun clockwise, and vice versa? It seems that a particular cyclone that develops when the ITCZ sits very near the equator could possibly have a slim chance at anticharacteristic rotation if, say, the ITCZ meandered a little north of south of the equator during cyclogenesis, or of the storm somehow crossed the ITCZ. Is this at all possible? I'm just curious, and wondering. Thanks in advance.

TROLLISH COMMENT: Oh looks like Coriolis lovers get smacked down again!!!! How embarasing fur the spinnists???!!! A blog post on WUWT says that spinnists are liers because have been telling us that storms always rotat counterclock wiss but Watts has a satelliote image of a hurricanee spinning clock wiss. guess al gore and the rest of the liberal spinnists will have to find other way to steal our money with ther socialsm plot!!!!!!!!!! Cory oliss force can't impacvt cyclone spin by more than 10%, so how will spinnists explaine the way oot of this one????????????? i know ill be atatcked for going aginst the spinnisst like happeens every time here when i show that spinnists are wriong but scientistss should alllow all theeries to be discus, so if you are science mindeed like you always say here youl answer this without attack me.

Now, tell me; can you spot the subtle difference?
Quoting 7. K8eCane:



Piggly Wig and Piggly Wog
Went outside to write a blog
When the weather turned to gray
They kept on blogging anyway


Still think this season will not be as quiet as they say. Just a FEELING based on no facts that I can tell.
This is a great example of an "opinion" that is not "trolling." I agree with you, but likely for some additional reasons.

We probably agree the the current El Niño is different from most - it is fairly strong and appears to be growing stonger. However, it is developing with a very unusual time of year pattern, and the crazy hodge-podge of warming and cooling regions in the Pacific over the past year -including the wanna-be El Niño - seems a bit odd. And I am not aware of any truly similar historic ENSO patterns with which to compare this episode.

However, I also agree with Drs. Masters and Rood, and Bob Henson, that the additional heat in the oceans due to global warming - the place where most of the excess heat is going - is changing the global "background" for weather. We really don't know what to expect in the short term.

So like you, I am not completely convinced that this will be a benign year for hurricanes - and even if there are fewer hurricanes, I have learned from the regulars here that slow seasons have produced powerful and damaging U.S. land-falling hurricanes.

There is no "guarantee" that this El Niño will bring rain to California. The range of possibilities for California is still from drought to floods, but with some increase in the probability of heavy rains. And although heavy rains can fill the reservoirs, the snow level in the Sierra Nevada will likely be quite high and likely not provide the snowpack to sustain the reservoir levels over the summer and fall.

We do indeed live in interesting times. I intend to watch the 2015 global weather patterns unfold and learn how - and possibly why with respect to atmosphere and ocean conditions, individual events are occurring by reading this blog and the comments here.

I just wish more people here would stick with the science - and wrap their minds around the concept that AGW/CC "influences" weather rather than saying that "alarmists" say the global warming "caused" a particular event. Ignore the blathering press and misleading bloggers and follow the honest science reporting - which is easily accessible at many locations on the internet.
pesky.trough.nw.carib.
Quoting 26. CybrTeddy:

Classic El Nino.




Quite so. Would the state of the rest of the northern pacific basin impact/influence how El Niño behaves? For example, I know the characteristics of typical El Niño is heavier rains in California and I would want that but does any other sst influence that chance?
Now that was a trollish post.
Quoting 20. Xulonn:

I accept the definition that Whitewabit posted. I strongly believe that what I and other science-minded folks call climate trolling here is done not to further the quest for knowledge, but to create false doubt.

Especially when the comments are repeated posting of dis-proven or debunked information promulgated by the FF-funded denialist community. This campaign of "manufactured doubt" is run by the same media propaganda experts who were pushing lies about the dangers of tobacco smoking, asbestos-related lung disease and other disinformation campaigns.
Very well said, but I think you are following Oreskes and others in describing the state of play of several years ago. The measure of success for the fossil fools is no longer the spreading of lies, disinformation and doubt - major media outlets and even large sectors of the US Congress are taking care of that quite well indeed.
We all know that every unmoderated public forum where climate change is discussed, is infested with comments repeating all the usual debunked or conspiracist rubbish. And wherever you look, all the same posters magically seem to know just when a particularly troublesome article has appeared somewhere. and they descend in hordes, if allowed. The only uncertainty in their comments is lost on them, as it concerns whether the scientific community is populated by corrupt and venal nincompoops, or by active and willing participants in the biggest conspiracy in the history of history. None of them will ever engage directly with the facts and physics, nor will anyone ever display any normal shame or change of behavior when proven by all reasonable standards to have been spouting ignorant gibberish. Those are sure signs of a hired liar or unwitting imitator.
But is spreading disinformation the real objective? Look what happens here, even in this (thankfully!) well-moderated setting. Whenever discussion of climate change is getting serious, some impervious and perfectly spherical persona comes in and tries to start a fight, and all the knowledgeable and reasonable folks here just shudder and say "oh no, not again...".
I suggest that it's no longer about disinformation at all, it's about the prevention of public discussion of the subject the same way a petulant child can prevent a whole roomful of grownups from having any serious discussion, and even more, it's about the creation of a powerful aversion to any serious discussion of the subject, anywhere. 
Quoting 31. Grothar:






Under moderate-high shear still but that should lower as it travels further north. The GFS currently brings it up to a category 2 storm, but with very high water temperatures and shear lowering, I wouldn't be surprised if it was able to make a run at becoming a major.
Quoting 34. Envoirment:





Under moderate-high shear still but that should lower as it travels further north. The GFS currently brings it up to a category 2 storm, but with very high water temperatures and shear lowering, I wouldn't be surprised if it was able to make a run at becoming a major.



Sorry, that image I posted is the eastern Pacific. But, yes, I have been following 95A as well.
Quoting 26. CybrTeddy:
Classic El Nino.

That cold spot between Greenland and the British Isles looks strange - doesn't the Gulf Stream normally pass close to Wales and Ireland before cooling and sinking?

Is there any way to see the changes in the SST anomaly in that region over recent years?
Quoting 27. Neapolitan:

If I may, allow me a pair of tropical weather-related analogies that might help you better differentiate between the two:

NON-TROLLISH COMMENT: I know that tropical cyclones generally spin counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, and vice-versa in the SH. But has there ever been an instance where a tropical cyclone has gone against that? That is, has a NH cyclone ever spun clockwise, and vice versa? It seems that a particular cyclone that develops when the ITCZ sits very near the equator could possibly have a slim chance at anticharacteristic rotation if, say, the ITCZ meandered a little north of south of the equator during cyclogenesis, or of the storm somehow crossed the ITCZ. Is this at all possible? I'm just curious, and wondering. Thanks in advance.

TROLLISH COMMENT: Oh looks like Coriolis lovers get smacked down again!!!! How embarasing fur the spinnists???!!! A blog post on WUWT says that spinnists are liers because have been telling us that storms always rotat counterclock wiss but Watts has a satelliote image of a hurricanee spinning clock wiss. guess al gore and the rest of the liberal spinnists will have to find other way to steal our money with ther socialsm plot!!!!!!!!!! Cory oliss force can't impacvt cyclone spin by more than 10%, so how will spinnists explaine the way oot of this one????????????? i know ill be atatcked for going aginst the spinnisst like happeens every time here when i show that spinnists are wriong but scientistss should alllow all theeries to be discus, so if you are science mindeed like you always say here youl answer this without attack me.

Now, tell me; can you spot the subtle difference?
Yep..Throw in some histrionic drama, and it would be my definition of a true classic......what a troubled world we live in
what has happened to this blog? it used to be a fun and informative blog,now so much bickering folks don't want to come here anymore..
1A, which was formerly 95A, which was formerly nothing.





Tropical depression over Arabian Sea; Oman, UAE, India on alert
Weather system 1,230km from Oman’s Masirah Island, 690km from Mumbai; Pakistan issues marine advisory
By Bindu Rai/Wam, Published Sunday, June 07, 2015


Source.



Moreover, is there another one forming in the southern hemisphere?

Quoting 36. Xulonn:

That cold spot between Greenland and the British Isles looks strange - doesn't the Gulf Stream normally pass close to Wales and Ireland before cooling and sinking?

Is there any way to see the changes in the SST anomaly in that region over recent years?


I haven't been really following pressure patterns up there, but since it's the north Atlantic, my guess is anomalously low heights have driven a lot of cold upper lows and surface systems for a combination of clouds and wind to bring lower temps there.

I don't really know though.
Quoting 38. LargoFl:

what has happened to this blog? it used to be a fun and informative blog,now so much bickering folks don't want to come here anymore..


Too many climate change arguments caused by climate trolls.
Quoting 3. K8eCane:

Well said and makes complete sense. But I will have to disagree with you when you say trolls ( you know who) are allowed to go unchallenged.You guys OVER challenge him and then when he stops, yall keep on about it and continue demeaning him. I have seen it. Just flag him and go on if you know that he is willfully trying to aggravate you for no reason. I personally have thought that he believes what he says, and therefore is not trying to just aggravate somebody, but I could be wrong. I am a retired nurse and i cant help it when I try to save him. I will try to stop that. Its just that when i see the overkill and not just flag and go on, the entire message gets lost and i go into save mode.



Here's the issue. Let's say we have a poster who doesn't believe in hurricanes. Thinks they are just big thunderstorms and the whole idea is a hoax. Every time the blog post was about hurricanes (and even if it wasn't) this poster would put up links to sites that supported his or her view that hurricanes were a hoax. And did it over and over again, day after day. No matter how many times the post was flagged, he or she was back at it the next hour or the day. Same crap day after day no matter how many times hurricanes were explained to him or her.

Would you think he or she just really believes in the idea hurricanes were a hoax?

Would you still think that he wasn't trying to aggravate anyone? Or, even worse, that his main goal was to convince everyone who comes here he or she is right while all of science is wrong?

Would you still want to try to save this person from what you describe as overkill?
Quoting 38. LargoFl:

what has happened to this blog? it used to be a fun and informative blog,now so much bickering folks don't want to come here anymore..
The problem could be solved instantly if the admins took some long overdue action. Why they don't is a mystery to me.
Worrying about a trolls "feelings" is just way too politically correct .

You get any rain yet Largo?
Quoting 17. Xulonn:

Was "Gompei the Goat" the mascot of Worcester Polytechnic Institute (statue is new)...

when you were a student atWPI?





1. The mascot was a goat, I don't remember the name Gompei. The statue isn't the only thing new;
that building wasn't there in my day.

2. Yes. graduated in '64
Quoting 42. Jedkins01:



Too many climate change arguments caused by climate trolls.


This.
Hey, Envoirment. Now that is a blob. :)

Wow. Look at that warm water is has to work with. I wonder if it has anything to do with AGW.

Quoting 49. Grothar:

Wow. Look at that warm water is has to work with. I wonder if it has anything to do with AGW.


I bet Nino may be helpin things along.....Greetings Gro
Bring that Blanca moisture on. We love it.
Arrived in Tampa. ....I forgot how you wear humidity like a blanket......
Blanca is now a cat 1 and it continues to weaken. It looks horrible right now and it will pour itself over the Baja California coast.

Read more..
Quoting 38. LargoFl:

what has happened to this blog? it used to be a fun and informative blog,now so much bickering folks don't want to come here anymore..



Which is exactly why i hardly comment on here anymore. I went to StormTrack but i still switch between here and there.
I always think it takes one to know one ;)

anyway

Blanca WV

Quoting 53. ricderr:

Arrived in Tampa. ....I forgot how you wear humidity like a blanket......


Once you get used to it it's nice, moisture is better for the body than dry air, so while it takes time to adjust to, I prefer it. It's a great beach day, will be fun to watch thunderstorms move in later in the day from the beach.
Quoting 53. ricderr:

Arrived in Tampa. ....I forgot how you wear humidity like a blanket......


Humidity? It's pleasant out today 200 miles to your NE. 89F with a 70F dewpoint.
Thank You Dynamic Duo.....
Quoting 59. StAugustineFL:



Humidity? It's pleasant out today 200 miles to your NE. 89F with a 70F dewpoint.
Howdy Augustine...Florida has different weather just 10 miles away sometimes.
Quoting 58. Jedkins01:



Once you get used to it it's nice, moisture is better for the body than dry air, so while it takes time to adjust to, I prefer it. It's a great beach day, will be fun to watch thunderstorms move in later in the day from the beach.
True, but one has to be careful when really hot with the humidity..Heat stroke is dangerous, and occurs rapidly if you are working..Muscle cramps are usually the first sign. Plenty of liquids, Gatorade and Pediolite are the best..I have had it once..Working strenuously in the Sun is bigtime.
Quoting 56. VR46L:

I always think it takes one to know one ;)

anyway

Blanca WV


Bet those folks are breathing easier, but I have a feeling more is coming there way..I hope I,m wrong.
Quoting 59. StAugustineFL:



Humidity? It's pleasant out today 200 miles to your NE. 89F with a 70F dewpoint.
It's 999 degrees here. OK, it's really 98, but it feels like 999. The dewpoint is 70, which makes the heat index 999. The guy that's the Confederate War Memorial statue in the center of town was fanning himself with his cap. All I did was walk to the car, go to the store, get out, walk to and from the store, get in the car, come back home, walk up my 12 steps to the porch...and now it will take me an hour to recover. No sign of a thunderstorm anywhere near me either, and it's still three weeks until we hit July, when it really gets hot. Every time the hot weather returns, I had forgotten what hot weather really means. So far, the cotton and peanuts still look good but we do need some rain sometime within the next several days.
Quoting 49. Grothar:

Wow. Look at that warm water is has to work with. I wonder if it has anything to do with AGW.




There are some warm anomalies in the region currently, but SST are usually driven by the recent weather conditions. El Nino may also contribute as it appears a similar anomaly appeared there during the 1998 El Nino, though with a sample size of two that 's hardly signficant. :)

A non-scientific quick perusal through the historical SST maps of the region does seem to show an increase in frequency and magnitude of these anomalies recently, but again,that's just eyeballing it.
Quoting 63. hydrus:

Bet those folks are breathing easier, but I have a feeling more is coming there way..I hope I,m wrong.
Blanca is entering the Baja death zone now. It will be over 68-70 degree water in the next 18 hours or so and will then undergo a total collapse. The water temperatures in the Pacific off Cabo were already about 5 degrees warmer last year, which is one of the reasons Odilie managed to maintain strength so far north. The Japanese Current looks like it resumed its typical place closer to the coast. We'll see how it goes in July and August but at least that's some hope in terms of a repeat cat 3 this year.
Quoting 62. hydrus:

True, but one has to be careful when really hot with the humidity..Heat stroke is dangerous, and occurs rapidly if you are working..Muscle cramps are usually the first sign. Plenty of liquids, Gatorade and Pediolite are the best..I have had it once..Working strenuously in the Sun is bigtime.


usually when you stop sweathing is the first sign ,, all down hill after that leading to heat strokes ..

actually a glass of chocolate milk is better to hydrate someone has more things in it then anything manmade .. was tested against Gatorade and won ..
Quoting 46. JohnLonergan:



1. The mascot was a goat, I don't remember the name Gompei. The statue isn't the only thing new;
that building wasn't there in my day.

2. Yes. graduated in '64


Wow '64... Jamaican me feel young... Was the building in the second picture built yet? ;)
Quoting 55. TimTheWxMan:




Which is exactly why i hardly comment on here anymore. I went to StormTrack but i still switch between here and there.
I must say, however, that the WU version of bickering is probably the most mild you'll find anywhere on the net. At least we don't get into insults about your mother or what type of animal may have given you birth. Most of the responses are fact based and not too far over into the looney bin space that I see all too often on other blogs. Take a look at the blogs on a place like People of Walmart if you really want to see a free for all.
01A/future Ashobaa.








Extremely hot waters...


Above average SST:


Quoting 68. ChillinInTheKeys:



Wow '64... Jamaican me feel young... Was the building in the second picture built yet? ;)
Yes, it is the oldest residence hall(fancy name for dorm) on campus, I don't know when it was built.
Quoting 64. sar2401:
It's 999 degrees here. OK, it's really 98, but it feels like 999. The dewpoint is 70, which makes the heat index 999. ...and now it will take me an hour to recover. No sign of a thunderstorm anywhere near me either, and it's still three weeks until we hit July, when it really gets hot.

I hear ya.. imagine being rained on for a solid month and this vicious High comes out of nowhere and
now it's 97 with a 107 feels like...when your forecast high is 91 everyday... quite the rude shock.
Quoting 35. Grothar:




Sorry, that image I posted is the eastern Pacific. But, yes, I have been following 95A as well.


My bad! Should've put my glasses on.

Quoting 48. Grothar:

Hey, Envoirment. Now that is a blob. :)




It is! Hopefully dry air will interupt it before landfall. Could cause some really nasty flooding if it were to make landfall with thunderstorms with tops that cold!
If you folks are still interested in the next step of G7 summit weather in southern Bavaria - I've reported this morning about the picturebook weather in a picturesque landscape with dressed up natives (lederhose, dirndl) and food (beer, bretzel) which will confirm every stereotype of Germany around the world -: the predicted thunderstorms are now entering the stage. Hmm, I'm envious of the leaders as they now can watch interesting weather in a spectacular landscape from the first cushioned row in front of large windows, lol ...

Weathermap (I hope the map shows the red pin of the location near Garmisch-Partenkirchen?).


Current webcam picture of the region (source for updates).

Edit: Looking at current shots of the Alp webcams I just spotted this great shot in an Austrian location (Sistrans) a bit to the south of the summit place.


Source.


Storms in many parts of (southern) Europe are getting stronger.

Current Lightning.

Good night everyone! I'm preparing for some days of vacation with walking/hiking, starting tomorrow :-)

Excellent points 33. no1der- the entire thrust of the denialists is to derail convivial discussion and bring it down to LCD of irrationality. Hell, even the Pope is not holy -
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/04/cli mate-skeptics-troll-pope
But this has been unpacked quite well by the scientific community here -
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/ science/2015/06
and elsewhere, that simply point out that it is not worth our while to feed the trolls. Just ignore idiots, end of story. Then they go away, just like if you don't scratch a jigger bite...


/global_warming_hiatus_new_data_show_there_s_no_p ause_in_global_warming.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_bot
Quoting 33. no1der:

Reminds me why I vowed never to return to Fla, after 4 months of summer there - a buggy, hot flatland swamp...nice people, sure but hey guys, you can go there to retire if you have to spend "quality" time in a place like that. :-)

Quoting 64. sar2401:

Quoting 3. K8eCane:

Quoting 208. Xulonn:

I would very much like to see your desire for less climate trolling and responses by science-aware defenders of truth that often clutter up the Masters/Henson blog happen, Teddy.

However, unlike regular trolling for attention, AGW/CC denialist trolling has a bigger purpose - spreading the anti-science propaganda of the denialist community.

Many people feel that lies, misinformation, pseudoscience and bad science falsely stated as true or valid should not go unchallenged. When someone posts the same untruths for the 20th time, it is no long simply expressing an "opinion" - it is trolling and disrupting a blog.

Dr. Rood's Climate blog is much more science-oriented than this blog with respect to the commenters (who are now called "bloggers" in common usage just like the person who wrote the blog - the original meaning of "blogger). This blog seems to be like a sandbox in a playground where knowledgeable as well as poorly-informed weather and tropical and severe weather fans hang out and have fun pursuing their interests and interacting with each other. There are a lot of excellent amateur and professional meteorologists here, and I enjoy reading their enthusiastic debates when the likelihood of severe weather increases. As a matter of fact, I am in awe of the knowledge and analytical of some of the commenters here.

Regarding your request, over at Dr. Rood's blog, we discuss climate science and related weather topics - and like here, banter a bit as "cyber-friends." The Rood Regulars do not condemn intelligent questions and the expression of skepticism based on logic and limited knowledge, and have put a lot of effort into educating the less knowledgeable. But when a troll not only fails to try to learn about climate, but refuses to engage in a discussion, their posts are often usually flagged into oblivion.

So, unfortunately for you, some of them came over here, and found a place where they can freely post their repeatedly debunked misinformation and falsehoods. A few trolls have discovered that their is a high level of tolerance for their antics by the regulars here, and they are having a field day as they thumb their noses at those of you who would like a more civil and focused discussion.

The only way those of you will get rid of the climate trolls is to not tolerate trolling. Simply asking people who know and discuss climate science to shut up and stop their defense of truth and science will not work. The regulars at this blog got rid of the hurricane trolls, but seem to be unable to deal with climate trolls.

At Dr.Rood's blog, se greatly reduced - almost eliminated - the trolling problem. Personally, I also flag actual trolling here, but I most certainly do not flag honest and well-grounded questions and opinions, and most certainly I do not flag anyone just for posting. Some of the trolls also contribute to honest weather discussions, and I will plus their comments if I "like" them (which is the criteria for plussing - not that you necessarily "agree" with the comment).

So you'll have to deal with the denialist trolls, Teddy - don't blame the defenders of science and truth for cluttering up these comments.


Well said and makes complete sense. But I will have to disagree with you when you say trolls ( you know who) are allowed to go unchallenged.You guys OVER challenge him and then when he stops, yall keep on about it and continue demeaning him. I have seen it. Just flag him and go on if you know that he is willfully trying to aggravate you for no reason. I personally have thought that he believes what he says, and therefore is not trying to just aggravate somebody, but I could be wrong. I am a retired nurse and i cant help it when I try to save him. I will try to stop that. Its just that when i see the overkill and not just flag and go on, the entire message gets lost and i go into save mode.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3294
Post like this are way to Long!!!


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


SUMMARY...SEVERAL ISOLATED BUT INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...POSING A RISK OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS NEW MEXICO TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GARDEN
CITY KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
How did life on Earth begin? It's been one of modern biology's greatest mysteries: How did the chemical soup that existed on the early Earth lead to the complex molecules needed to create living, breathing organisms? Now, researchers say they've found the missing link.

Between 4.6 billion and 4.0 billion years ago, there was probably no life on Earth. The planet's surface was at first molten and even as it cooled, it was getting pulverized by asteroids and comets. All that existed were simple chemicals. But about 3.8 billion years ago, the bombardment stopped, and life arose. Most scientists think the "last universal common ancestor" — the creature from which everything on the planet descends — appeared about 3.6 billion years ago.

But exactly how that creature arose has long puzzled scientists. For instance, how did the chemistry of simple carbon-based molecules lead to the information storage of ribonucleic acid, or RNA? The RNA molecule must store information to code for proteins. (Proteins in biology do more than build muscle — they also regulate a host of processes in the body.)

The new research — which involves two studies, one led by Charles Carter and one led by Richard Wolfenden, both of the University of North Carolina — suggests a way for RNA to control the production of proteins by working with simple amino acids that does not require the more complex enzymes that exist today. [7 Theories on the Origin of Life on Earth]

Missing RNA link

This link would bridge this gap in knowledge between the primordial chemical soup and the complex molecules needed to build life. Current theories say life on Earth started in an "RNA world," in which the RNA molecule guided the formation of life, only later taking a backseat to DNA, which could more efficiently achieve the same end result. Like DNA, RNA is a helix-shaped molecule that can store or pass on information. (DNA is a double-stranded helix, whereas RNA is single-stranded.) Many scientists think the first RNA molecules existed in a primordial chemical soup — probably pools of water on the surface of Earth billions of years ago. [Photo Timeline: How the Earth Formed]

The idea was that the very first RNA molecules formed from collections of three chemicals: a sugar (called a ribose); a phosphate group, which is a phosphorus atom connected to oxygen atoms; and a base, which is a ring-shaped molecule of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and hydrogen atoms. RNA also needed nucleotides, made of phosphates and sugars.

The question: How did the nucleotides come together within the soupy chemicals to make RNA? John Sutherland, a chemist at the University of Cambridge in England, published a study in May in the journal Nature Chemistry that showed that a cyanide-based chemistry could make two of the four nucleotides in RNA and many amino acids.

That still left questions, though. There wasn't a good mechanism for putting nucleotides together to make RNA. Nor did there seem to be a natural way for amino acids to string together and form proteins. Today, adenosine triphosphate (ATP) does the job of linking amino acids into proteins, activated by an enzyme called aminoacyl tRNA synthetase. But there's no reason to assume there were any such chemicals around billions of years ago.

Also, proteins have to be shaped a certain way in order to function properly. That means RNA has to be able to guide their formation — it has to "code" for them, like a computer running a program to do a task.

Carter noted that it wasn't until the past decade or two that scientists were able to duplicate the chemistry that makes RNA build proteins in the lab. "Basically, the only way to get RNA was to evolve humans first," he said. "It doesn't do it on its own."

Perfect sizes

In one of the new studies, Carter looked at the way a molecule called "transfer RNA," or tRNA, reacts with different amino acids.

They found that one end of the tRNA could help sort amino acids according to their shape and size, while the other end could link up with amino acids of a certain polarity. In that way, this tRNA molecule could dictate how amino acids come together to make proteins, as well as determine the final protein shape. That's similar to what the ATP enzyme does today, activating the process that strings together amino acids to form proteins.

Carter told Live Science that the ability to discriminate according to size and shape makes a kind of "code" for proteins called peptides, which help to preserve the helix shape of RNA.

"It's an intermediate step in the development of genetic coding," he said.

In the other study, Wolfenden and colleagues tested the way proteins fold in response to temperature, since life somehow arose from a proverbial boiling pot of chemicals on early Earth. They looked at life's building blocks, amino acids, and how they distribute in water and oil — a quality called hydrophobicity. They found that the amino acids' relationships were consistent even at high temperatures — the shape, size and polarity of the amino acids are what mattered when they strung together to form proteins, which have particular structures.

"What we're asking here is, 'Would the rules of folding have been different?'" Wolfenden said. At higher temperatures, some chemical relationships change because there is more thermal energy. But that wasn't the case here.

By showing that it's possible for tRNA to discriminate between molecules, and that the links can work without "help," Carter thinks he's found a way for the information storage of chemical structures like tRNA to have arisen — a crucial piece of passing on genetic traits. Combined with the work on amino acids and temperature, it offers insight into how early life might have evolved.

This work still doesn't answer the ultimate question of how life began, but it does show a mechanism for the appearance of the genetic codes that pass on inherited traits, which got evolution rolling.

The two studies are published in the June 1 issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Follow us @livescience, Facebook & Google+. Original article on Live Science.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHWEST IA
ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF LAMONI IOWA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
severe line of thunder storms making their way across central and northern Illinois this afternoon .. warnings out till 8 ..

90 degrees with a heat index of 97º .. dew point hanging around 72º .. humidity at 65%
The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
north central Tazewell County in central Illinois...
central Peoria County in central Illinois...
northwestern Woodford County in central Illinois...

* until 430 PM CDT
* at 326 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm was located near Brimfield...
or 12 miles west of Peoria... moving east at 25 mph.

Hazard... 60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.
Source... radar indicated.
Impact... hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs... siding and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Peoria... East Peoria... Washington... Peoria Heights... Chillicothe...
Metamora... Germantown Hills... Rome... Dunlap... Brimfield... Spring
Bay... Bay View gardens... Kickapoo... Cazenovia... Alta and Mossville.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 474 between mile markers 0 and 2.
Interstate 74 between mile markers 73 and 90.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm... and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Lat... Lon 4071 8933 4072 8990 4086 8990 4092 8945
4092 8933
time... Mot... loc 2026z 265deg 23kt 4079 8985

Hail... 1.25in
wind... 60mph

Barnes
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267 remains in effect until 800 PM CDT
for the following locations


IL
. Illinois counties included are

Boone Bureau Cass
Champaign Coles De Kalb
De Witt Douglas Edgar
Ford Fulton Grundy
Iroquois Kankakee Kendall
Knox La Salle Lee
Livingston Logan McDonough
McLean Macon Marshall
Mason Menard Moultrie
Ogle Peoria Piatt
Putnam Schuyler Stark
Tazewell Vermilion Warren
will Winnebago Woodford

81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:38 PM GMT on June 07, 2015


Hey Keep. Read this not long ago. Great stuff. Studied biology at college over 25 years ago. Considering how things were in the tech department back then, it was remarkably accurate even by todays standards. They start it all out with " The Four Agents " to how life began. Liked the book so well , I kept it all these years. 1500 pages and 70 bucks back then, most students sold them back to the school. Covers a amazing amount of material with great accuracy, and gets into deep subject matter with a maximum amount of professionalism.
Quoting 83. whitewabit:

severe line of thunder storms making their way across central and northern Illinois this afternoon .. warnings out till 8 ..

90 degrees with a heat index of 97º .. dew point hanging around 72º .. humidity at 65%
we get our turn over night tonight till dawn Monday morning
Thunderstorms with heavy downpours possible tonight.

Showers at times heavy with embedded thunderstorms are likely to affect much of Southwestern Ontario tonight as a strong disturbance approaches from the us Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to arrive over areas near the Michigan border by early evening then quickly spread east across remaining regions this evening.

Current indications suggest that some areas may see rainfall amounts of 30 to 40 mm by Monday morning with local amounts of near 50 mm quite possible for locales that receive two or three thunderstorms in a row.

Environment Canada continues to closely monitor this situation. Warnings may be issued if necessary.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
90. vis0
guess what made 1 line error wring URL on 1st image and cannot edit poof post gone, thinking of re-posting it after i eat my dinner


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 455 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN IL WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN IND WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF SOUTH BEND INDIANA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF VALPARAISO
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
NAVGEM now buys development of NW Carib system





the others


also CMC/GEM has show similar situation just much weaker same track like NAVGEM and doesn't actually develop the system until its in the N GOM (I don't buy this as this is unusual for CMC/GEM downcast intensity on system its not CMC/GEM's MO its feels somewhat unnatural) I do think this is caused by CMC/GEM overpowering the Epac system this snuffing out the energy in the surrounding areas
and as I stated I don't buy
Euro still shows nothing
Quoting 93. wunderkidcayman:

NAVGEM now buys development of NW Carib system



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcge n/tcgif/track.feperts.2015060712.tc_atl_ll.single. png

the others
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcge n/tcgif/track.aeperts.2015060712.tc_atl_ll.single. png

also CMC/GEM has show similar situation just much weaker same track like NAVGEM and doesn't actually develop the system until its in the N GOM (I don't buy this as this is unusual for CMC/GEM downcast intensity on system its not CMC/GEM's MO its feels somewhat unnatural) I do think this is caused by CMC/GEM overpowering the Epac system this snuffing out the energy in the surrounding areas
and as I stated I don't buy
Euro still shows nothing
Very low chance of anything forming there.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
504 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

GAZ089>091-102-072200-
MUSCOGEE GA-MARION GA-STEWART GA-CHATTAHOOCHEE GA-
504 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN MUSCOGEE...
MARION...STEWART AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY
RAIN FROM A SERIES OF NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS NEAR FORT BENNING AND
CUSSETA.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
MUSCOGEE...MARION...STEWART AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND CUSSETA...NORTH FORT BENNING...EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING...
RENFROE...SAND HILL...BROOKLYN...MANTA...VISTA TERRACE...ZELLOBEE...
CHRISTOPHER...SAINT MARYS HILLS AND JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT BENNING.

ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS
OF ANY PONDING ON ROADWAYS. REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.

LAT...LON 3220 8491 3225 8492 3226 8489 3228 8492
3248 8494 3248 8462 3223 8461 3223 8465
3222 8464 3219 8464 3217 8471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 029DEG 2KT 3233 8474

$$
Quoting 94. Gearsts:

Very low chance of anything forming there.


at the moment yes
then well maybe not so low

we have to wait and see
just got hit with what I expect was at least a 65 mph gust front on the front side of wall cloud .. looks like after dark here at just after 4.. no hail yet .. torrential rain can't see my mail box 25 feet away ..
Quoting 67. whitewabit:



usually when you stop sweathing is the first sign ,, all down hill after that leading to heat strokes ..

actually a glass of chocolate milk is better to hydrate someone has more things in it then anything manmade .. was tested against Gatorade and won ..
Wow, news to me..I was one who thought I could hack the 95 degree weather with the 65% humidity. I was painting stucco outside in the mangroves of Punta Rassa near Sanibel 4 years ago. Was fine for a few hours , than suddenly massive muscle cramps unlike anything I ever experienced..Guzzled two large Gatorades and felt better within half an hour...It was sugar free..I do not like sugar.
Quoting 98. LargoFl:




slowly the area is becoming favorable

Quoting 69. sar2401:

I must say, however, that the WU version of bickering is probably the most mild you'll find anywhere on the net. At least we don't get into insults about your mother or what type of animal may have given you birth. Most of the responses are fact based and not too far over into the looney bin space that I see all too often on other blogs. Take a look at the blogs on a place like People of Walmart if you really want to see a free for all.
Absolutely. Info is worth any of the bickering I,ve seen here....I can tolerate quite a bit...until its absurd or completely wrong..:)
103. vis0
Quoting 3. K8eCane:

Quoting 208. Xulonn:

I would very much like to see your desire for less climate trolling and responses by science-aware defenders of truth that often clutter up the Masters/Henson blog happen, Teddy.

However, unlike regular trolling for attention, AGW/CC denialist trolling has a bigger purpose - spreading the anti-science propaganda of the denialist community.

Many people feel that lies, misinformation, pseudoscience and bad science falsely stated as true or valid should not go unchallenged. When someone posts the same untruths for the 20th time, it is no long simply expressing an "opinion" - it is trolling and disrupting a blog.

Dr. Rood's Climate blog is much more science-oriented than this blog with respect to the commenters (who are now called "bloggers" in common usage just like the person who wrote the blog - the original meaning of "blogger). This blog seems to be like a sandbox in a playground where knowledgeable as well as poorly-informed weather and tropical and severe weather fans hang out and have fun pursuing their interests and interacting with each other. There are a lot of excellent amateur and professional meteorologists here, and I enjoy reading their enthusiastic debates when the likelihood of severe weather increases. As a matter of fact, I am in awe of the knowledge and analytical of some of the commenters here.

Regarding your request, over at Dr. Rood's blog, we discuss climate science and related weather topics - and like here, banter a bit as "cyber-friends." The Rood Regulars do not condemn intelligent questions and the expression of skepticism based on logic and limited knowledge, and have put a lot of effort into educating the less knowledgeable. But when a troll not only fails to try to learn about climate, but refuses to engage in a discussion, their posts are often usually flagged into oblivion.

So, unfortunately for you, some of them came over here, and found a place where they can freely post their repeatedly debunked misinformation and falsehoods. A few trolls have discovered that their is a high level of tolerance for their antics by the regulars here, and they are having a field day as they thumb their noses at those of you who would like a more civil and focused discussion.

The only way those of you will get rid of the climate trolls is to not tolerate trolling. Simply asking people who know and discuss climate science to shut up and stop their defense of truth and science will not work. The regulars at this blog got rid of the hurricane trolls, but seem to be unable to deal with climate trolls.

At Dr.Rood's blog, se greatly reduced - almost eliminated - the trolling problem. Personally, I also flag actual trolling here, but I most certainly do not flag honest and well-grounded questions and opinions, and most certainly I do not flag anyone just for posting. Some of the trolls also contribute to honest weather discussions, and I will plus their comments if I "like" them (which is the criteria for plussing - not that you necessarily "agree" with the comment).

So you'll have to deal with the denialist trolls, Teddy - don't blame the defenders of science and truth for cluttering up these comments.


Well said and makes complete sense. But I will have to disagree with you when you say trolls ( you know who) are allowed to go unchallenged.You guys OVER challenge him and then when he stops, yall keep on about it and continue demeaning him. I have seen it. Just flag him and go on if you know that he is willfully trying to aggravate you for no reason. I personally have thought that he believes what he says, and therefore is not trying to just aggravate somebody, but I could be wrong. I am a retired nurse and i cant help it when I try to save him. I will try to stop that. Its just that when i see the overkill and not just flag and go on, the entire message gets lost and i go into save mode.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3294

Nice blog post.
As i've stated over the past few yrs here a re re re peat of an idea to help lower the case of trollers that use trolling to mislead the public NOT SOMEONE playing the devils advocate but a persistent pattern of repeating the same comment/contents without those ideas being updated or new. Passed it to several other sites as a Japanese site, S. American site made their own and are testing it , they even sent me coupons for movies and many thank yous, but it was not even responded to when i sent it to WxU developers several yrs before.
Its the idea of a fading ignore by points.
The ignore by points button would be similar to the ignore 1one1 button you have now (eye with a diagonal line across it but in the fading ignore would have the diagonal line dashed por the eye fading L. to R.) .
The way it works is as more people click on that button (no Terrific Animatron Zoologist, not one person clicking on it 100 times) but many different people the person who is being mass ignored by points has their post become a shades of gray (you know, after that book came out the pages i posted this idea on and had that TAG began to send me lots of lady mail (can i say "lady mail" here ...self deleted zilly comment).
Therefore is its set to turn to a lighter share of gray after every 3 DIFFERENT ignore by points is clicked the words of THAT POST goes from (HTML CODE) #505050 (don't use CDCDCD it'll confuse some servers if a glitch hits them) then after the ignore by points reaches the total of 6 DIFFERENT user members, that posts text colour goes to #787878, the ignore by points reaches 9 the text colour #AAAAAA and so on till the text becomes the same as the background colour (in present 2015 WxU's case thats a whitish hue. As the grayed text gets lighter an overlayed text can be placed at the start of that post too explain why the text is fading out. (of course you know this is going to skew ADs towards Whitening detergents and Just For Men® gets the gray out) One can also make the background match the text (i.e. black background on posts that implement the colour black as to text but if something goes astray a black background causes more problems than text being a shade lighter.) Any replies to that text keep the original colour UNLESS the comment is by the same member that has its text being faded out or if words are exactly the same or copied & pasted from the fad affected post. This is just an idea i'm sure others can think of ways around this Ignore via fade but my hope was that it would've gotten some replies from WxU webmasters and in a think tank sort of way we'd improve it (as allowing only the members that faded the text to bring it back to just a light gray by clicking an unfade button) and i offered my services for FAH-REE....oh i now see my error they probably wanted to charge me for they having to listen to my crazy talk, oh well.


Here's an idea (as this lamps aniGIF plays

folks whom grew up in the 1960s play in their mind the MAIN exit theme of the Rocky & Bullwinkle cartoons NOT the flying squirrel opening theme but the Broadway marquee lights flickering & popping closing theme, fer youningz do some work and search for it...i hope i got the correct cartoon for that Broadway marquee lights flickering & popping closing theme is correct...sar2401 research...webberweather53 is too busy drawing up my theory on how g-well to g-mountains began to build the soul of this universe which i state is physically ~20 B.Lght. yrs "young", BUT its soul is ~60 billion light yrs young and from a dormant "water" spirit of over 120 billion light years OLD (anything that reaches Grothars age is old) as to the big bang NOT being a "loud" point as an explosion but vast in size as the lowest possible Hz all at once and in being such a once in a "lifetime" deep Hz it mixed/blended the 2 first elements...i think webberweather53 is going to run out of graph colours.

(AGAIN anything i post could be already invented or in the works ( ;- ) after its read here) but these ideas are from my last saved childhood notes all before 1976, some you'll find on webnet posts from years gone by, posted by yours truly under other user names...still have ~140 ideas of ~300 i think are legit to post. Why not post all 300?, Many used Galacsics and since that is not discovered nor will i help in discovering (retired) those ideas are useless, like cars that run on the ionized breeze that flow through the cars grills by using that breezes energy to power the cars batteries therefore dangerous high storage batteries are not needed just a constant breeze. Think if a politician used it they'd more miles per "gallon of air" if one could have the politician on the car hood blah blah blahing away. No sar2401 you can't build yer version with a windmill on the Motor homes roof, you'd have to reverse the entire gears structure on the windmill every time ya had to park the car, cause the windmills wings built to send you forward and you trying to park (go backward) and cancel any motion it would be like someone flying a plane at 200 mph over the Rockies against a headwind jetstream of 201mph you'd be going backwards while still reaching the desired destination ...that's cucamonga...i mean nuts.

Here's my (lost count ) 6th 9th 11th... idea posted, though might not be use in the real world (muscled guys and gals need the exercise) but for senior citizens it might be helpful.

Its a hand truck with 2 platform plates the normal welded or one piece bottom platform and a spring supported platform. In this manner if one has a semi heavy box you place it on the top platform and as the weight builds on the top platform plate it pushes it down to the bottom plate therefore less bending over with a big package....ah let me use heavy pkg before the satire group "double meanings" picks on my post. The trick is that the spring is "post adjustable" meaning if the packages are so lite that the top platform plate only goes down halfway (not good for stability, though good for AHV clips of people falling) then a small pumping crank (works as a water wells pumping action, easier on arthritic conditions ) is pumped and a screwing action (here comes that satire group) forced the top plate to go all the way down AFTER you added pkgs that are too lite and/or the use of a latch so top plate stays down.
image host
BACK TO OBSERVING WEATHER
,peace
Quoting 102. hydrus:

Absolutely. Info is worth any of the bickering I,ve seen here....I can tolerate quite a bit...until its absurd or completely wrong..:)
One thing I do not tolerate is people not accepting my opinion, but I come to realize that they are closed minded. I'm opened minded and I can accept your opinion, so yeah.
Eric Blake@EricBlake12
No sign of an end to the central/eastern Caribbean #drought- drier than average expected next couple of weeks #ElNino

Quoting 99. hydrus:

Wow, news to me..I was one who thought I could hack the 95 degree weather with the 65% humidity. I was painting stucco outside in the mangroves of Punta Rassa near Sanibel 4 years ago. Was fine for a few hours , than suddenly massive muscle cramps unlike anything I ever experienced..Guzzled two large Gatorades and felt better within half an hour...It was sugar free..I do not like sugar.


You probably didn't realize you had stopped sweating .. from what I have heard most people don't .. but the leg cramps also a certain sign along with other things .. was surprised at the articles about milk too ..
A historic anniversary...

Large cell over the top of me .. Lightning going off every 3-4 seconds .. very heavy rain .. Weather radio saying 70 mph winds ..

temp dropped from 90 down to present 69 ..
Quoting 107. GeoffreyWPB:

A historic anniversary...




lol well it was this morning
110. flsky

Where?
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 97. whitewabit:

just got hit with what I expect was at least a 65 mph gust front on the front side of wall cloud .. looks like after dark here at just after 4.. no hail yet .. torrential rain can't see my mail box 25 feet away ..
Quoting 106. whitewabit:



You probably didn't realize you had stopped sweating .. from what I have heard most people don't .. but the leg cramps also a certain sign along with other things .. was surprised at the articles about milk too ..
One other thing about chocolate milk. If one works out hard ( lifts weights, football, soccer, etc ) one of the best things in the world is chocolate milk...Scientifically proven. Only thing better is whey protein that has been filtered properly with the correct additives.

Showtime.... 91.4F here, think I'll stay inside...
Quoting 111. hydrus:

One other thing about chocolate milk. If one works out hard ( lifts weights, football, soccer, etc ) one of the best things in the world is chocolate milk...Scientifically proven. Only thing better is whey protein that has been filtered properly with the correct additives.


especially when added to chocolate milk ..
Quoting 109. wunderkidcayman:



lol well it was this morning


Marty just swung by to say hello on his hoverboard. He said you were actually Biff posting on here.
Quoting 113. whitewabit:



especially when added to chocolate milk ..
Very true.. The only catch is some may say to much sugar. It really depends on the individual, and there goals.
Quoting 107. GeoffreyWPB:

A historic anniversary...




That blog posts a new version of that image for every day. It's a joke blog. The actual date is October 21, 2015.
I found an interesting model ranking done by UK weather site on the performance of nine global weather models during 2014. Points were assigned by how accurate each model's forecast was for 15 locations in Europe and North America. More points were assigned for models that got the forecast right as it moved further out in time. It's a little subjective but it seems pretty accurate in my experience. The nine models in order on the chart are -

* GFS (P) = The GFS run in parallel on a dedicated supercomputer with higher resolution than the standard GFS

*ECM = ECMWF or Euro model

*GFS = Operational Global Forecasting System model

*JMA = Japanese Met Agency model

*UKMO = UMET operational model

*NAVGEM = Navy Global Environmental Model. This is an update (in 2013) to the previous NOGAPS model

*GEM = Canadian Global Environmental model, known more properly as the CMC or Canadian Meteorological Centre model

*CMA = China Met Agency model

*GME = German Met agency model

The GFS (P) was a pretty clear winner in this competition. The NWS has been spending a lot of money to upgrade their computing power after their rather embarrassing failure with Hurricane Sandy. So far, it looks like the money has been well spent as the future GFS operational model has outperformed all the other global models. As expected, the ECMWF is second followed by the GFS operational. A surprise in the ranking is the Japanese model. It's not much followed in North America but the Japanese are determined to have the best model in the world and they are spending large amounts of money to do so. It seems to be working, at least so far. The UKMET operational model trails in fifth place after the Japanese occupied the usual fourth place on the ranking. The NAVGEM so far has not turned out to be much of an improvement over the old NOGAPS, which was never a high ranking model. The big surprise is the GEM/CMC. After an update and strong start in 2013 something appears to have gone haywire with this model (affectionately referred to as the "Constantly Making Cyclones" model lately) and it has slipped to the rear part of the rankings. The last two, the Chinese and German models, are no surprise, since they are both very young models. Both countries are pouring money into their models so they are ones to watch in the future.

This ranking will change in the future, but this gives you a little perspective on how well you can expect any of these models to perform as you track them. As usual, agreement among models is more important than any single model no matter how good it is.



img src="">
Quoting 116. wilsonbiggs:



That blog posts a new version of that image for every day. It's a joke blog. The actual date is October 21, 2015.


Was that actually your first post in here? If so, welcome!
Quoting 46. JohnLonergan:



1. The mascot was a goat, I don't remember the name Gompei. The statue isn't the only thing new;
that building wasn't there in my day.

2. Yes. graduated in '64
1964...Cleo, Isbell, and Dora...Florida had a busy year..And almost whacked with Hilda too...

Hilda at peak intensity on October 1
Formed September 28, 1964
Dissipated October 5, 1964
(Extratropical after October 4)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 150 mph
Lowest pressure 941 mbar 27.79 inHg
Fatalities 38
Damage $126 million (1964 USD)
Areas affected
Cuba Yucatn Peninsula United States Gulf Coast United States East Coast

Quoting 103. vis0:

(SNIP)

Here's my (lost count ) 6th 9th 11th... idea posted, though might not be use in the real world (muscled guys and gals need the exercise) but for senior citizens it might be helpful.

Its a hand truck with 2 platform plates the normal welded or one piece bottom platform and a spring supported platform. In this manner if one has a semi heavy box you place it on the top platform and as the weight builds on the top platform plate it pushes it down to the bottom plate therefore less bending over with a big package....ah let me use heavy pkg before the satire group "double meanings" picks on my post. The trick is that the spring is "post adjustable" meaning if the packages are so lite that the top platform plate only goes down halfway (not good for stability, though good for AHV clips of people falling) then a small pumping crank (works as a water wells pumping action, easier on arthritic conditions ) is pumped and a screwing action (here comes that satire group) forced the top plate to go all the way down AFTER you added pkgs that are too lite and/or the use of a latch so top plate stays down.
image host
BACK TO OBSERVING WEATHER
,peace
Sorry, Vis, I had to snip some of that out. I can only deal with one idea at a time. I just don't have your multitasking ability. That's a great idea for the hand truck, especially if there's a securing strap on each platform. You can also use it so the heavy stuff goes on the bottom platform and the lighter stuff goes on the top platform. You can carry twice as much with a lot more stability. Did you ever try to patent this idea? I could have used a hand truck like this when I was moving.
Quoting 107. GeoffreyWPB:

A historic anniversary...




Still no flying cars or hover boards. :(
Quoting 108. whitewabit:

Large cell over the top of me .. Lightning going off every 3-4 seconds .. very heavy rain .. Weather radio saying 70 mph winds ..

temp dropped from 90� down to present 69� ..
70 is when things really start to happen..jmho
Quoting 106. whitewabit:



You probably didn't realize you had stopped sweating .. from what I have heard most people don't .. but the leg cramps also a certain sign along with other things .. was surprised at the articles about milk too ..
Its true...One is already soaked like ya fell in tha water...it was an experience for sure.
Welcome Qazulight...Seems like the "alternate" past time line is more reflective of what's going on today. Okay, getting too nerdy.
2.58 inches of rain in the down pour we just had .. still hearing the rumbling of the thunder well to my east now ..
Evening all. Cool news on Blanca.... but not cool news that the Baja CA track seems to be persisting ....

Meanwhile on this side of central America, this is about as interesting as it's looked in the SW Car for some time ....

128. beell
Quoting 117. sar2401:

I found an interesting model ranking done by UK weather site...






I believe the GFS(P) went operational a few months ago.
Quoting 126. whitewabit:

2.58 inches of rain in the down pour we just had .. still hearing the rumbling of the thunder well to my east now ..
Nice...Dont you need the rain Wab.?
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
625 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

FLZ165-262-265-072315-
INLAND LEE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEE-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
625 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LEE
COUNTY...

AT 624 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR LEHIGH
ACRES. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT MYERS...BONITA SPRINGS...LEHIGH ACRES...OLGA...BUCKINGHAM...
THREE OAKS...CHARLESTON PARK...SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AIRPORT...SAN CARLOS
PARK...FORT MYERS SHORES...ESTERO...GATEWAY...ALVA AND NORTH FORT
MYERS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
Quoting 7. K8eCane:




Piggly Wig and Piggly Wog
Went outside to write a blog
When the weather turned to gray
They kept on blogging anyway


Still think this season will not be as quiet as they say. Just a FEELING based on no facts that I can tell.
Agree. I think we're going to get pretty close to average.

Quoting 8. beell:



Guten blogen to you as well.
Shouldn't that be Gluten bogen?

Quoting 113. whitewabit:



especially when added to chocolate milk ..
Interesting how your membership started August-17...We know why that date is important.
Quoting 13. hydrus:

Mornin Pat..This is true..I have been here a long time and have not actually posted a blog...I like learning, but do not have time to blog...I,m lucky I can even participate.
A lot of times what happens is people write the equivalent of a blog entry .... then post it in the comments section here .... mainly because it's more likely to be seen that way. Basically the main blog has taken the place of the old newsnet boards from back in the day. So while I agree with your definition to a certain extent, I also completely understand why the definition has broadened out to include regular commenters on a popular blogger's blogs ....
Quoting 77. gulfbreeze:


It would help if you learned to quote. You're posting your one line reply in the original post making the whole thing reproduce all over again and making it hard to tell what your wrote. You have to reply after the last "blockquote" in a quote to prevent this.
Quoting 128. beell:



I believe the GFS(P) went operational a few months ago.
I wasn't sure if the parallel actually went operational. If so, the GFS should be doing a better job (we all hope).
136. beell
Quoting 131. BahaHurican:

Shouldn't that be Gluten bogen?




Do we really knead to discuss this?
Quoting 126. whitewabit:

2.58 inches of rain in the down pour we just had .. still hearing the rumbling of the thunder well to my east now ..
How long did it take to come down? Seems that torrential downpours are becoming a lot more common.
Quoting 136. beell:



Do we really knead to discuss this?

Depends on if you're trying to get a rise out of her.
might be a wet weekend next week navgem,CMC and now GFS all around the gulf..
Quoting 129. hydrus:

Nice...Dont you need the rain Wab.?


yes that should even us up what we were behind .. but would have liked it over a bit longer period then just an hour .. lot of it ran off doing us little good ..
Quoting 72. redwagon:

Quoting 64. sar2401:
It's 999 degrees here. OK, it's really 98, but it feels like 999. The dewpoint is 70, which makes the heat index 999. ...and now it will take me an hour to recover. No sign of a thunderstorm anywhere near me either, and it's still three weeks until we hit July, when it really gets hot.

I hear ya.. imagine being rained on for a solid month and this vicious High comes out of nowhere and
now it's 97 with a 107 feels like...when your forecast high is 91 everyday... quite the rude shock.
All the way down to 94 now after scorching high of 99. It was really terrible. Some thunderstorms did pop up north and south of me but I was left in the doughnut hole today. There's supposed to be a not-as-hot front and an MCS approach tomorrow afternoon. It's likely it will wash out before it gets this far south since it wouldn't get here until late in the evening. Even some cloud cover to keep the temperature down would be nice though.

Edit: No, I take that back. There is one tiny dark cloud over me that's dropping enough rain drops to make the streets steam. Stopped now but it did drop the temperature to 93. :-)
Quoting 116. wilsonbiggs:



That blog posts a new version of that image for every day. It's a joke blog. The actual date is October 21, 2015.

Yeah because how often does that area have thunderstorms this time of year? Takes place in California, right?
146. beell
Quoting 135. sar2401:

I wasn't sure if the parallel actually went operational. If so, the GFS should be doing a better job (we all hope).


As you mentioned, subjectivity rules. It depends on what, when, and where your comparing,

With respect to hurricanes, you could skim through this NHC report from March of this year.
noaa.gov/verification

Quoting 132. hydrus:

Interesting how your membership started August-17...We know why that date is important.


It was a day where I really thought I had/was going to / to die being less then 3 miles from the Gulf of Mexico in Biloxi, Ms .. was the night Camille hit Aug 17, 1969 ..
Quoting 65. Xyrus2000:



There are some warm anomalies in the region currently, but SST are usually driven by the recent weather conditions. El Nino may also contribute as it appears a similar anomaly appeared there during the 1998 El Nino, though with a sample size of two that 's hardly signficant. :)

A non-scientific quick perusal through the historical SST maps of the region does seem to show an increase in frequency and magnitude of these anomalies recently, but again,that's just eyeballing it.


Good eyeballing. Very true what you wrote. If I am not mistaken, there have been quite a few entries on the fact the a tremendous amount of heat has been building in the Indian Ocean.
Quoting 145. Hazardousweather:


Yeah because how often does that area have thunderstorms this time of year? Takes place in California, right?
Given the entire premise of the movie, they probably weren't too concerned about meteorological accuracy. :-)
Didn't mean to post the above twice.... ^
Grothar, what are your thoughts on the blob in the Caribbean?
Quoting 29. islander101010:

pesky.trough.nw.carib.
We had sunny skies today .... first break in a while.

Quoting 56. VR46L:

I always think it takes one to know one ;)

anyway

Blanca WV


Wiping out pretty much on schedule .... still looks set to bring quite a bit of rain to Baja and points north, though.
Quoting 127. BahaHurican:

Evening all. Cool news on Blanca.... but not cool news that the Baja CA track seems to be persisting ....

Meanwhile on this side of central America, this is about as interesting as it's looked in the SW Car for some time ....




Hi Baha,
We don't need anymore rain for now, but I suspect that might not be the case!
Quoting 146. beell:



As you mentioned, subjectivity rules. It depends on what, when, and where your comparing,

With respect to hurricanes, you could skim through this NHC report from March of this year.
noaa.gov/verification


Yeah, there are probably about a hundred ways you could compare models. I've looked at the NHC verification page many times but there are so many models, some of which are subsets of other models, that it's pretty hard to come up with a reasonably understandable graph. The other thing about this comparison is it wasn't limited to just tropical performance but performance for the entire year. It was totally subjective in terms of the locations used and definitions of getting a forecast right but it seemed good enough to help us think about which models did well and which ones not so well. The biggest disappointment has been the CMC. I thought we were really on to something in 2013, but 2014 and 2015 so far have illustrated why it's becoming an also-ran. Showing the putative tropical storm from last week that was supposed to be a hurricane off the SC coast today is about as a big a miss as you can get. Of course, the CMC is a good illustration why the dog of last year might be the winner this year and vice versa.
Quoting 138. sar2401:

Depends on if you're trying to get a rise out of her.
That's what I get for posting a half-baked comment.....
Although Blanca is weakening, the fact that we're even talking about a tropical cyclone approaching Baja California Sur in early June is extremely impressive and rare. We can only hope that systems take on an east-to-west track as we progress deeper into the season, because waters won't always be as cold as they are now to prevent a major strike.

Quoting 152. BahaHurican:

We had sunny skies today .... first break in a while.

Wiping out pretty much on schedule .... still looks set to bring quite a bit of rain to Baja and points north, though.

That cloud shield will expand like a supernova as the storm continues to weaken. Baja will get some heavy rain but the wild card is going to be the desert Southwest. There is a pretty vigorous low pressure system (actually, several lows) ensconced in the desert now that will use the moisture as it becomes available. It appears the trough stretching from the Atlantic out into the Pacific will finally move east a little faster in the next 24 hours but it sure has hung around a while.
Quoting 155. BahaHurican:

That's what I get for posting a half-baked comment.....
Yes, nothing worse than half a loaf...
Quoting 153. stormpetrol:



Hi Baha,
We don't need anymore rain for now, but I suspect that might not be the case!
If this makes any northerly motion at all, it'd be hard for you guys not to get some additional rain out of it. Hopefully you'll have a couple of days with no precip so the current lot can drain ..... :o/
Quoting 151. Articuno:

Grothar, what are your thoughts on the blob in the Caribbean?


That is not a blob. Just a mess. I am watching the Bay of Campeche this week.





161. beell
Quoting 154. sar2401:

Yeah, there are probably about a hundred ways you could compare models. I've looked at the NHC verification page many times but there are so many models, some of which are subsets of other models, that it's pretty hard to come up with a reasonably understandable graph. The other thing about this comparison is it wasn't limited to just tropical performance but performance for the entire year. It was totally subjective in terms of the locations used and definitions of getting a forecast right but it seemed good enough to help us think about which models did well and which ones not so well. The biggest disappointment has been the CMC. I thought we were really on to something in 2013, but 2014 and 2015 so far have illustrated why it's becoming an also-ran. Showing the putative tropical storm from last week that was supposed to be a hurricane off the SC coast today is about as a big a miss as you can get. Of course, the CMC is a good illustration why the dog of last year might be the winner this year and vice versa.


Unfortunately, the utility of any model often requires a touch of human analysis to achieve acceptable results-and that process is never 100% accurate. And it also requires constant attention to each model run for consistencies/inconsistencies/pattern recognition, etc, in conjunction with what ever real-time data is available. If, for whatever reason, you hang on to last week's model output-expecting perfection or validation of your own wants and wishes, you will be left behind in the dust, scratching your head.

If you expect the model to do all the work for you, you will not find much use in them.

Fortunately, this allows plenty of opportunity for weather geeks like us to fill up page after page of of blog comments cussing/discussing!
Quoting 136. beell:



Do we really knead to discuss this?

It's the yeast we can do.
Quoting 153. stormpetrol:



Hi Baha,
We don't need anymore rain for now, but I suspect that might not be the case!


well I expected to see this happening

anyway the upper trof is expected to weaken and slowly move out
I'm expecting more stormy conditions for us as this happens
Cabo San Lucas webcam

Those palm trees are getting a workout.. big waves in the background, looks like more than the predicted 50mph winds perhaps?
Cabo San Lucas Webcam Directory

Here is a page with a bunch of views from the resort, bottom feed is decent!
Quoting 104. HurricaneAndre:

One thing I do not tolerate is people not accepting my opinion, but I come to realize that they are closed minded. I'm opened minded and I can accept your opinion, so yeah.


No one has to accept your opinion. That's why it's your opinion. Thinking someone is closed minded simply because they disagree with your opinion is extremely egotistical.
168. vis0

Quoting 120. sar2401:

Sorry, Vis, I had to snip some of that out. I can only deal with one idea at a time. I just don't have your multitasking ability. That's a great idea for the hand truck, especially if there's a securing strap on each platform. You can also use it so the heavy stuff goes on the bottom platform and the lighter stuff goes on the top platform. You can carry twice as much with a lot more stability. Did you ever try to patent this idea? I could have used a hand truck like this when I was moving.
patent???? haven't tried since the 1970s and that bad experience.
i prefer wxu member go for it, of course its posted publicly so i figure by now IF IT IS NOT AN IDEA ALREADY it will be if its thought to really be a useful idea.
Check out Troy, Alabama's current wind speed due to a gust front sustained at 25mph gusting to 50!
Another strong line of storms moving cross central Illinois .. TS Warnings along with Flash Flood warnings out for area ..
Quoting 160. Grothar:



That is not a blob. Just a mess. I am watching the Bay of Campeche this week.






Spoken like the highly trained "blobologist" you are.
I am the worst person on the face of the earth.
173. beell
Quoting 172. HurricaneAndre:

I am the worst person on the face of the earth.


I don't remember voting for you.
Quoting 121. Qazulight:



Still no flying cars or hover boards. :(
Too many people insisting we have to use gas to power them ....

Quoting 172. HurricaneAndre:

I am the worst person on the face of the earth.
Proof.?..link.?...:)
Quoting 170. whitewabit:

Another strong line of storms moving cross central Illinois .. TS Warnings along with Flash Flood warnings out for area ..
Very rare to see tropical storm warnings for Illinois....stay safe..:)
Quoting 168. vis0:


patent???? haven't tried since the 1970s and that bad experience.
i prefer wxu member go for it, of course its posted publicly so i figure by now IF IT IS NOT AN IDEA ALREADY it will be if its thought to really be a useful idea.

Bad indeed...Takes years jus to get a recipe through
Hot in Central Oregon. Normal high for tomorrow is about 70F.


Quoting 172. HurricaneAndre:

I am the worst person on the face of the earth.
Sometimes life seems horrible/miserable at best.
I've known you for years.
Trust me....you're fine and will be fine.
Quoting 160. Grothar:



That is not a blob. Just a mess. I am watching the Bay of Campeche this week.








meh more like NW Carib/GOH








latest








Quoting 170. whitewabit:

Another strong line of storms moving cross central Illinois .. TS Warnings along with Flash Flood warnings out for area ..
Quoting 176. hydrus:

Very rare to see tropical storm warnings for Illinois....stay safe..:)


lol
they should call it CB warning so none can get confused
but one would hope people would have sense to know Illinois don't get TS
if it did you know something like The Day After Tomorrow soon to come
182. JRRP

Quoting 178. rayduray2013:

Hot in Central Oregon. Normal high for tomorrow is about 70F.



Are you getting anything from the wandering thunderstorms? The dust must be getting bad up your way. I remember how the heat made everything smell like pine and cedar though so I guess it's not all bad.
Quoting 180. wunderkidcayman:



meh more like NW Carib/GOH
I'll say one thing - they couldn't fit more lines and colors on those maps if their lives depended on it.
Quoting 136. beell:



Do we really knead to discuss this?

I,ll need more proof in the fold before i believe it is really good...
Quoting 182. JRRP:



Hmmmm ......
Quoting 185. hydrus:

I,ll need more proof in the fold before i believe it is really good...
Is that like fireproof or 100% proof?
I really hope we don't get anymore rain for now, so many homes are flooded and people displaced from their homes, sometimes you get too much of a good thing or what you wished for!

Quoting 169. TCweatherman:

Check out Troy, Alabama's current wind speed due to a gust front sustained at 25mph gusting to 50!
Troy? Highest wind speed I see here is a gust of 9 mph. Only 3-4 mph on the TAF for TOI as well. Where did you see this? There is a group of thunderstorms moving north into Bullock County from far western Barbour County, about halfway between me and Troy. Troy has a light shower now and I've had nothing.

Quoting 179. CosmicEvents:

Sometimes life seems horrible/miserable at best.
I've known you for years.
Trust me....you're fine and will be fine.


Very wise words my friend!!!
Quoting 168. vis0:


patent???? haven't tried since the 1970s and that bad experience.
i prefer wxu member go for it, of course its posted publicly so i figure by now IF IT IS NOT AN IDEA ALREADY it will be if its thought to really be a useful idea.

Hmm. I've got some springs and sheet metal. I might give it a try. If I become rich from the multilevel hand truck I promise I'll pay for a high speed internet connection for you. :-)
Quoting 182. JRRP:





oh geez!!!!!!!

it will be fun to watch end of this month going onwards

Quoting 161. beell:



Unfortunately, the utility of any model often requires a touch of human analysis to achieve acceptable results-and that process is never 100% accurate. And it also requires constant attention to each model run for consistencies/inconsistencies/pattern recognition, etc, in conjunction with what ever real-time data is available. If, for whatever reason, you hang on to last week's model output-expecting perfection or validation of your own wants and wishes, you will be left behind in the dust, scratching your head.

If you expect the model to do all the work for you, you will not find much use in them.

Fortunately, this allows plenty of opportunity for weather geeks like us to fill up page after page of of blog comments cussing/discussing!
Imagine if all forecasts and models were 100% accurate. It would be great for public safety but hell for us. :-) Davis would certainly have to find a new line business if nothing else.
Quoting 182. JRRP:




Looks like some sort of glitch to me. Either that, or it's just long range BS lol.
Quoting 186. BahaHurican:

Hmmmm ...... Is that like fireproof or 100% proof?
Both...i like killin too stoned with one bird......hiccupp..
Quoting 133. BahaHurican:

A lot of times what happens is people write the equivalent of a blog entry .... then post it in the comments section here .... mainly because it's more likely to be seen that way. Basically the main blog has taken the place of the old newsnet boards from back in the day. So while I agree with your definition to a certain extent, I also completely understand why the definition has broadened out to include regular commenters on a popular blogger's blogs ....
That's a good point. Sometimes me and Jed are neck and neck for text walls so I guess I do write the equivalent of a blog some days. I've never done one because I don't want to be tied to even a perceived schedule. If I have the time, the computer doesn't lock up, and there's something interesting going on, I'll post here. I know I wouldn't have to post a blog every day but my internal OCD thing would push me to do it.
A peaceful night to all...zzzzzzzz
Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like some sort of glitch to me. Either that, or it's just long range BS lol.
I vote for long range BS. I'll have had two doctor's visits, a trip to the optometrist, and at least two times in the pharmacy by then. That's how us old geezers tell time by the way. :-)
Quoting 196. hydrus:

A peaceful night to all...zzzzzzzz
CU ltr Hydrus. Sleep well.
Yes for some reason it's not showing up now however earlier it was. We had a nice gustfront blow through here while looking at one of the prettiest Structural thunderstorms I've ever seen, and a rainbow, beautiful it was.
Quoting 188. sar2401:


Troy? Highest wind speed I see here is a gust of 9 mph. Only 3-4 mph on the TAF for TOI as well. Where did you see this? There is a group of thunderstorms moving north into Bullock County from far western Barbour County, about halfway between me and Troy. Troy has a light shower now and I've had nothing.


Quoting 143. sar2401:

All the way down to 94 now after scorching high of 99. It was really terrible. Some thunderstorms did pop up north and south of me but I was left in the doughnut hole today. There's supposed to be a not-as-hot front and an MCS approach tomorrow afternoon. It's likely it will wash out before it gets this far south since it wouldn't get here until late in the evening. Even some cloud cover to keep the temperature down would be nice though.

Edit: No, I take that back. There is one tiny dark cloud over me that's dropping enough rain drops to make the streets steam. Stopped now but it did drop the temperature to 93. :-)


Yikes, that's really hot, our high was a standard Florida 91, with a dewpoint fluctuating between 70 and 74, but we had two rounds of rain with one stronger thunderstorm earlier around 3 PM while at the beach and a recent heavy shower. Haven't measured the exact total, but we had quite a bit over 1 inch from glancing at the gauge, and we had some street flooding.

We really got missed by all the activity over the last few days, and haven't had a good soaker since Tuesday, so it was nice to see the down pours today, especially since I just put down grass seed and fertilizer to help fill in the random stubborn patches where grass won't grow in my white sandy hostile front yard soil.
Blanca is weakening fast guys
Quoting 172. HurricaneAndre:

I am the worst person on the face of the earth.


Yeah...well, when I am feeling really evil, I go the the Wurst Huas. Drink beer, eat sauerkraut, then once the digestion really gets going, I find a crowded elevator and ride it up a floor and get off after pushing all the buttons. Using this method I can peel paint, remove make up and increase the average breath holding time in an entire city block.

So, or you really the worst?

Cheers
Qazulight
Yes for some reason it's not showing up now however earlier it was. If I knew how to post pictures on here I would because I screenshoted it. We had a nice gustfront blow through here while looking at one of the prettiest Structural thunderstorms I've ever seen, and a rainbow, beautiful it was.
Quoting 188. sar2401:


Troy? Highest wind speed I see here is a gust of 9 mph. Only 3-4 mph on the TAF for TOI as well. Where did you see this? There is a group of thunderstorms moving north into Bullock County from far western Barbour County, about halfway between me and Troy. Troy has a light shower now and I've had nothing.


TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Blanca has weakened quickly today. The peak
SFMR-observed surface winds were 57 kt over the northeast quadrant.
On this basis, Blanca is being downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm
for this advisory. Continued weakening is likely as the system will
be moving over progressively cooler waters with fairly strong
southerly to southwesterly shear, and interacting with the terrain
of the Baja California peninsula. The official wind speed forecast
is in good agreement with the latest intensity model consensus.
Blanca should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours.

The motion, 345/8 kt, is a bit slower than previous estimates.
Otherwise there is little change to the steering scenario. Blanca
or its remnant should continue to move along the western periphery
of a mid- to low-level ridge until dissipation. The official track
forecast is a blend of the ECMWF and medium-depth BAM tracks to
account for the expected shallowness of the cyclone, and is a little
slower than the previous NHC forecast.

Moisture associated with Blanca is expected to affect portions of
the southwestern United States in a couple of days. For more
information, please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 21.3N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 23.0N 111.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 25.3N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blanca, located about a hundred miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.

1. Disorganized shower activity continues several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in association with a trough of low
pressure. Upper-level winds are expected to be generally favorable
for development over the next several days as the system moves
slowly northwestward or northward, although any development of this
system should be slow to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


new invest coming soon
Hope this GFDL precip forecast comes true! Afew inches of rain in June after a just shy of all time wet May would be great for the mountains and other areas of Sooo Cal. Looks like the track has drifted back further west from a few days ago.........we will see.

Quoting 187. stormpetrol:

I really hope we don't get anymore rain for now, so many homes are flooded and people displaced from their homes, sometimes you get too much of a good thing or what you wished for!


yeah but looks like more on the way and all we can do is just prep for it

well this is very good this rain it just goes to show Cayman how ill prepared the country is for when you get the next storm

this should be a wake up call for people to start prepping and start doing what needs to be done to fix the problems

in a way I kinda do want another Hurricane Ivan to hit Cayman (I know some of you guys think that's nuts) but here is the facts

before Ivan and deficiencies learnt during and aftermath
country was ill-prepared;
building development standards were not up to par
storm surge and flooding mitigation was just about non existent
Emergency Aid and National Security Operation local services (EMS/Fire/Police/HazMat) and interoperability with regional and international (Caricom/Red Cross/FEMA/British joint US military/Hazard Management/CMI-- was in shambles
Meteorological expertise and meteorological equipment not up to par
national emergencies made into a political game

after recovery
building development standard revised and now better than US codes
some effort has been made in storm surge and flooding mitigation in some of the most problematic area
Emergency Aid and National Security Operation Local services and interoperability with regional and international has been greatly enhanced and is double standard
Meteorological expertise and meteorological equipment upgraded but not fully up to par
national emergencies no longer made into a political game as new National Emergencies Operations laws have been put into place so no matter what political party is in house the rules and regs are in place and are the same

now (from 2008-2015[June])
the revised building development standard are still better than US codes but since been slacking off (unintentional)
the effort that has been made in storm surge and flooding mitigation in some of the most problematic area have dropped off
Emergency Aid and National Security Operation Local services and interoperability with regional and international is still double standard
Meteorological expertise and meteorological equipment upgraded and now up to par (new early warning systems new radar new lightning detection system and new warnings and alerts)
national emergencies are still no longer made into a political game the National Emergencies Operations laws are still in effect so no matter what political party is in house the rules and regs are in place and are the same however the laws have been placed in the background and a bit of political gaming has started due to and despite no severe national emergency event of large scale has occurred since 2008

as stated this is due to no major events happening since 2008
this I find is very bad and it would seem the only way to get more out of doing what needs to be done is to get another Hurricane Ivan type event

by the way I was wondering if anyone else has experienced this problem in your Island/Country/ or State
Quoting 205. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blanca, located about a hundred miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.

1. Disorganized shower activity continues several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in association with a trough of low
pressure. Upper-level winds are expected to be generally favorable
for development over the next several days as the system moves
slowly northwestward or northward, although any development of this
system should be slow to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


new invest coming soon


yes we know we are expecting this
hmm... ... ... ...

starting to fill back in the W Carib



lol... hmm... ... ... lets wait and see... ... ... ... ... ...
210. JRRP
Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like some sort of glitch to me. Either that, or it's just long range BS lol.

lol
211. IDTH
Quoting 182. JRRP:




Looks a little wet
Quoting 209. wunderkidcayman:

hmm... ... ... ...

starting to fill back in the W Carib



lol... hmm... ... ... lets wait and see... ... ... ... ... ...
What's starting to fill back in the W Caribbean? I don't see anything there.
Quoting 211. IDTH:


Looks a little wet


not so as wet but just a ton load of lower pressure which eventually it may yes means a lot of wetness

we have to see if overall trends across the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks with the pressures
this could mean something if indeed pressures across the MDR are falling
it could be our first burst of tropical cyclone development for the season
and again it could be nothing
wait and watch the trends is the key
Quoting 203. TCweatherman:

Yes for some reason it's not showing up now however earlier it was. If I knew how to post pictures on here I would because I screenshoted it. We had a nice gustfront blow through here while looking at one of the prettiest Structural thunderstorms I've ever seen, and a rainbow, beautiful it was.
You have to put your screenshot on an internet photo site like imgur. You can then link to it here. Were you seeing the storms off to the east? That seems to be the only place a gust front could have come from. I'm really surprised that there was a 50 mph gust from it though. I've seen a lot of gust fronts and never seen one with that high a wind. What remains of the storms is up in Montgomery now so that's pretty much it for us for the night. Maybe we'll get something tomorrow.
Quoting 212. sar2401:

What's starting to fill back in the W Caribbean? I don't see anything there.


oh god!!
Sar go away for a bit
oh you might need some glasses if you can't see it...lol...
ok lets not go any further with this
as I stated before
wait and see that's all
Quoting 207. wunderkidcayman:



yeah but looks like more on the way and all we can do is just prep for it

well this is very good this rain it just goes to show Cayman how ill prepared the country is for when you get the next storm

this should be a wake up call for people to start prepping and start doing what needs to be done to fix the problems

in a way I kinda do want another Hurricane Ivan to hit Cayman (I know some of you guys think that's nuts) but here is the facts

before Ivan and deficiencies learnt during and aftermath
country was ill-prepared;
building development standards were not up to par
storm surge and flooding mitigation was just about non existent
Emergency Aid and National Security Operation local services (EMS/Fire/Police/HazMat) and interoperability with regional and international (Caricom/Red Cross/FEMA/British joint US military/Hazard Management/CMI-- was in shambles
Meteorological expertise and meteorological equipment not up to par
national emergencies made into a political game

after recovery
building development standard revised and now better than US codes
some effort has been made in storm surge and flooding mitigation in some of the most problematic area
Emergency Aid and National Security Operation Local services and interoperability with regional and international has been greatly enhanced and is double standard
Meteorological expertise and meteorological equipment upgraded but not fully up to par
national emergencies no longer made into a political game as new National Emergencies Operations laws have been put into place so no matter what political party is in house the rules and regs are in place and are the same

now (from 2008-2015[June])
the revised building development standard are still better than US codes but since been slacking off (unintentional)
the effort that has been made in storm surge and flooding mitigation in some of the most problematic area have dropped off
Emergency Aid and National Security Operation Local services and interoperability with regional and international is still double standard
Meteorological expertise and meteorological equipment upgraded and now up to par (new early warning systems new radar new lightning detection system and new warnings and alerts)
national emergencies are still no longer made into a political game the National Emergencies Operations laws are still in effect so no matter what political party is in house the rules and regs are in place and are the same however the laws have been placed in the background and a bit of political gaming has started due to and despite no severe national emergency event of large scale has occurred since 2008

as stated this is due to no major events happening since 2008
this I find is very bad and it would seem the only way to get more out of doing what needs to be done is to get another Hurricane Ivan type event

by the way I was wondering if anyone else has experienced this problem in your Island/Country/ or State
Well, yeah, but I wouldn't be hoping for the place to get flattened again so the people in charge will know how bad it can be. Another storm of some magnitude will come along. Plans that were made will get all screwed up. People will die. Everyone will wring their hands, make more plans, and then file them again. It's just the way emergency management goes. The only way California got better building codes is when another earthquake happened and enough things fell down. Even a year later, most of the lessons learned are already getting lost. Seven years later and a whole new generation has to go through it again.
Quoting 216. wunderkidcayman:



oh god!!
Sar go away for a bit
oh you might need some glasses if you can't see it...lol...
ok lets not go any further with this
as I stated before
wait and see that's all
Are you talking about that little purple dot as "filling in"? You actually think that means something? Quite a stretch.
Quoting 217. sar2401:

Well, yeah, but I wouldn't be hoping for the place to get flattened again so the people in charge will know how bad it can be. Another storm of some magnitude will come along. Plans that were made will get all screwed up. People will die. Everyone will wring their hands, make more plans, and then file them again. It's just the way emergency management goes. The only way California got better building codes is when another earthquake happened and enough things fell down. Even a year later, most of the lessons learned are already getting lost. Seven years later and a whole new generation has to go through it again.

umm yeah
btw lucky for us only two people died as a direct cause of Ivan one of the deaths is just from pure Stupidity

so having a Ivan level event without death would be awesome having Ivan level event with very few deaths would still be ok compared to 10-100 people dying

but yeah I get what you saying
Blanca is almost done as it makes landfall in the Baja California peninsula and will be causing for some rain there over the next 24 hours before it dissipates.



Read more...
Quoting 218. sar2401:

Are you talking about that little purple dot as "filling in"? You actually think that means something? Quite a stretch.


lol
yeah true but its still better than a whole pile of greys
Quoting 200. Jedkins01:



Yikes, that's really hot, our high was a standard Florida 91, with a dewpoint fluctuating between 70 and 74, but we had two rounds of rain with one stronger thunderstorm earlier around 3 PM while at the beach and a recent heavy shower. Haven't measured the exact total, but we had quite a bit over 1 inch from glancing at the gauge, and we had some street flooding.

We really got missed by all the activity over the last few days, and haven't had a good soaker since Tuesday, so it was nice to see the down pours today, especially since I just put down grass seed and fertilizer to help fill in the random stubborn patches where grass won't grow in my white sandy hostile front yard soil.

As long as you didn't lose all your grass seed in the downpour. This has been the hottest start to June I can remember. Out average high is 86 so we're running quite a bit above normal. This front coming through tomorrow won't cool me off at all. The only hope now is some afternoon thunderstorms to at least cool things off then. Unfortunately, heights are going to build again by midweek so we'll be right back up in the high 90's. We have been about a month ahead of climate since April. As long as the rains keep coming with some regularity things will be OK. If the rains stop again, I'm going to be in a world of hurt.
Quoting 220. meteorologistkidFL:

Blanca is almost done as it makes landfall in the Baja California peninsula and will be causing for some rain there over the next 24 hours before it dissipates.



Read more...


oh it would be fun if Blanca started moving NW to stay off land and stay alive a little longer
Quoting 221. wunderkidcayman:



lol
yeah true but its still better than a whole pile of greys
If you put on those specially colored glasses, that dot will look bigger. I guess that's what you meant by glasses. I lost mine in about 1971.
Quoting 218. sar2401:

Are you talking about that little purple dot as "filling in"? You actually think that means something? Quite a stretch.


Has been a very impressive moisture feed into the Caribbean over the last three days. Was pulling everything NE as the trough moved out, now this has a chance to persist for another 24 hrs and not move a great deal. Wind shear is the problem and will not lessen until mid week possibly. If conditions were better this feature would be one to watch. West Pacific has been thankfully quiet for a little bit.
Quoting 225. DeepSeaRising:



Has been a very impressive moisture feed into the Caribbean over the last three days. Was pulling everything NE as the trough moved out, now this has a chance to persist for another 24 hrs and not move a great deal. Wind shear is the problem and will not lessen until mid week possibly. If conditions were better this feature would be one to watch. West Pacific has been thankfully quiet for a little bit.


shear may lessen within 24-48hrs going onwards
upper trof expected to weaken and slowly move out
I got your purple spots right here!


Quoting 228. BaltimoreBrian:

I got your purple spots right here!





LMAO
lol
lol
.........
Just to put into even more perspective how active this season has been so far:

looking at it now it certainly looks like the upper trof starting to back off now

Quoting 231. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just to put into even more perspective how active this season has been so far:




is there one for Atlantic 2014/2015 comparison
Should be a fun week with a possible Gulf system. Interesting to see if the models come around in consensus over the next few days.
Quoting 234. wunderkidcayman:



is there one for Atlantic 2014/2015 comparison

I could make one, but it would be pointless at this point. Ana accumulated 2.1725 units of ACE. Arthur didn't form until July 1 last year.
Quoting 236. DeepSeaRising:

Should be a fun week with a possible Gulf system. Interesting to see if the models come around in consensus over the next few days.


well according to the models its more of NW Carib/GOH/GOM system
as shown #180

awaiting 00Z runs to come out and to see what other runs show over the coming days
I have been keeping track over the past few days and models have overall been trending development E and system moving anywhere from NW-N up into the GOM heading to anywhere from Mexico to Mississippi
Quoting 237. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I could make one, but it would be pointless at this point. Ana accumulated 2.1725 units of ACE. Arthur didn't form until July 1 last year.

true
but still
it would be nice to have it either way
Quoting 238. wunderkidcayman:



well according to the models its more of NW Carib/GOH/GOM system
as shown #180

awaiting 00Z runs to come out and to see what other runs show over the coming days
I have been keeping track over the past few days and models have overall been trending development E and system moving anywhere from NW-N up into the GOM heading to anywhere from Mexico to Mississippi


Would we be looking at a major hurricane or a weak tropical cyclone if that verifies?
Quoting 239. wunderkidcayman:


true
but still
it would be nice to have it either way

Quoting 182. JRRP:





Rain??
Quoting 240. pureet1948:



Would we be looking at a major hurricane or a weak tropical cyclone if that verifies?

way too early to say
anyway now would not be the time to talk about intensity first lets get something going in the area first

lets just say for now a possible tropical system of some sort
Quoting 241. TropicalAnalystwx13:





thanks mate
you the best ;)
Quoting 242. CaribBoy:



Rain??

possibly
more like lower pressures for now according to that 18Z run still seems pretty dry especially for the E Caribbean during the whole run most of the atlantic MDR moist W atlantic MDR dry E Caribbean dry central and W Caribbean very wet

seems like this is certainly not your year CaribBoy
lets see how it goes anyway if its truly that bad you always got next year :)
246. JRRP
Quoting 242. CaribBoy:



Rain??

no..
back to the reality
Quoting 246. JRRP:


no..
back to the reality



yep
lol
Quoting 243. wunderkidcayman:


way too early to say
anyway now would not be the time to talk about intensity first lets get something going in the area first

lets just say for now a possible tropical system of some sort


I would rather not get anything going in the area. I'm in Houston and we're still all weirded out over those floods we had. A tropical system? Who needs it?
Quoting 248. pureet1948:



I would rather not get anything going in the area. I'm in Houston and we're still all weirded out over those floods we had. A tropical system? Who needs it?


I hear ya
btw how much inches good old Houston had from them floods
Epac TWO
AOI bumped up to 10%/70%

00Z GFS similar to last run
00Z CMC/GEM Epac system a lot further E than last run much closer to coast travels more N then NE then meanders and weakens
00Z NAVGEM still on board with NW Carib/GOM development
Quoting 249. wunderkidcayman:



I hear ya
btw how much inches good old Houston had from them floods

Ah, I don't recall exactly. I can tell you that some parts of SE TX are still under flood warnings and small stream advisories, so that should give you an idea of what we went through.
Quoting 252. pureet1948:


Ah, I don't recall exactly. I can tell you that some parts of SE TX are still under flood warnings and small stream advisories, so that should give you an idea of what we went through.

yeah we here in Grand Cayman know what ya going through we are self is dealing with flooding

enough that people are using boats and kayaks to get around in some places roads and houses are flooded out
rain started from late Monday night Tues morning and its still raining now and still expected to continue a few more days
Upper level trof moving out and weakening

before trof axis was from SW Atlantic across Florida into W tip of Cuba and the base just off the N Honduran coast now
trof axis from SW Atlantic across Florida to just N of the N coast of Yucatan and moving away while weakening

via TWD
well new one is in you can't say nothing now because its now confirmed its filling



more purple and less grey

before 2 micro purple dots

now one purple blob that's growing

now this may or may not mean much but still I was saying it
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
CYCLONIC STORM ASHOBAA (ARB01-2015)
8:30 AM IST June 8 2015
=================================

Pre-cyclone watch for Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over east central Arabian Sea has moved north northwest wards during past 6 hours and intensified further into a cyclonic storm (ASHOBAA), and lays centered near 17.9N 67.2E, about 590 km west southwest of Mumbai, 470 km southwest of Veraval and 960 km east southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.

It would move initially north northwestwards and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next
36 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
9 HRS 19.0N 66.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS 21.0N 65.3E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 22.5N 63.7E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS 23.5N 62.4E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Blanca has made Landfall
we now officially have 94E

first models run shows a BOC crossover but as always never trust first models runs



this is already further E than where NHC had placed it early this morn
by a whole 4 degrees to the E and 2 degrees N
Quoting 262. wunderkidcayman:

this is already further E than where NHC had placed it early this morn
by a whole 4 degrees to the E and 2 degrees N



Quoting 259. wunderkidcayman:














06Z GFS really ramps up 94E more that previous runs
and slightly more W on this run too
Looks like the MJO will finally be moving out of phase 1 pretty soon here. That should put an end to this remarkable burst of E-Pac activity, although we may see Carlos first from 94E. In addition, not that they ever really opened up in the first place, but the Atlantic deep tropics should be put on lockdown through the end of the month.

NASA's Geos-5 model had 94e crossing into the gulf of mexico day before yesterday. Today it has it growing into a major and slamming into Mexico around June 13th.
models=failure
Blanca shortwave. It made landfall or is really close.

Edit: Wide shot, wow, looks like the SW US monsoon is early this year! :P
Geos-5 did really well on Blanca from when it very first became an invest...including the whole weak TS to Baha ending..
Quoting 271. Skyepony:

Geos-5 did really well on Blanca from when it very first became an invest...including the whole weak TS to Baha ending..
looks like we watch the gulf in 3-4 days
Lot of rain on tap from Louisiana to FL the next 10 days. It seems the GFS is shifting the moisture axis further east again. Which is great as people on the East Coast of FL need rain however here about 75 minutes inland have seen 5" to 6" so far this month in areas. Orlando though has been in some weird hole with only 1" to 2" so far in June.

this weeks # are in

Link
Quoting 269. islander101010:

models=failure


Yeah GFS after many runs of sending lots of moisture into Texas & Mexico has shifted overnight more toward Louisiana which is good for us in FL as a track like that would pull lots of tropical moisture over FL giving you guys some much needed rain over on the coast.
Good Morning. Blanca onshore in the Baha and winding down with a rain threat inland, the new area in the E-Pac near Central America with uncertainty on whether it will actually cross-over and re-form in the BOC, and shear dominates across the Atlantic basin (as it should this time of the year and particularly during an El Nino phase):








A wider shot for Central America:

Quoting 263. wunderkidcayman:




Where did the "94E" and the arrow come from? I don't see it at the NHC.

Good morning..



Yeah; no 94E yet...................................


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blanca, located on the southwestern coast of Baja California
Sur.

Shower activity is showing some signs of organization in association
with a broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level winds are expected to
be conducive, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few
days while this system moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Quoting 280. weathermanwannabe:

Yeah; no 94E yet...................................


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blanca, located on the southwestern coast of Baja California
Sur.

Shower activity is showing some signs of organization in association
with a broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level winds are expected to
be conducive, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few
days while this system moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent




ok mr i no evere thing what you call this then

EP, 94, 2015060806, , BEST, 0, 100N, 900W, 25, 1009, DB

94E

Quoting 280. weathermanwannabe:

Yeah; no 94E yet...................................


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blanca, located on the southwestern coast of Baja California
Sur.

Shower activity is showing some signs of organization in association
with a broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level winds are expected to
be conducive, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few
days while this system moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent



Really? I see 94E on several sites.

Quoting 281. Tazmanian:




ok mr i no evere thing what you call this then

EP, 94, 2015060806, , BEST, 0, 100N, 900W, 25, 1009, DB

94E




I think some still are in need of coffee is AM TAZ. As 94E is clearly listed all over the place and even has a floater up for it.
03JUN2015 25.3 1.9 28.1 1.4 29.0 1.2 30.0 1.2

this weeks # are in

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4

1.9 1.4 1.2 1.2
My mistake Taz.............No Big Deal..............Still not convinced that it is going to form, cross-over, and become a viable entity in the BOC.
Quoting 283. StormTrackerScott:



I think some still are in need of coffee is AM TAZ. As 94E is clearly listed all over the place and even has a floater up for it.



yep
Quoting 286. weathermanwannabe:

My mistake Taz.............No Big Deal..............Still not convinced that it is going to form, cross-over, and become a viable entity in the BOC.



ok no big deal



all so if this storm gets a the C storm and the storm stays in tac durning the cross-over it will still be the C storm the NHC stop doing the chaging names after the cross-over the olny way it gets a new name is that it fully falls apart and fourms a new low
Quoting 286. weathermanwannabe:

My mistake Taz.............No Big Deal..............Still not convinced that it is going to form, cross-over, and become a viable entity in the BOC.


It may not but its moisture will likely get pulled up into the Central Gulf later this week.
Quoting 285. Tazmanian:

03JUN2015 25.3 1.9 28.1 1.4 29.0 1.2 30.0 1.2

this weeks # are in

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4

1.9 1.4 1.2 1.2


Solidly in Moderate El-Nino and closing in on Strong territory.
rember this rule on E PAC cross over

Yes, Atlantic hurricanes can move across Central America into the Pacific, and vice-versa. This happened in July 1996 when Atlantic Hurricane Cesar moved across Central America and was renamed Douglas when it moved into the Northeast Pacific Ocean. In 1989, Cosme in the Pacific became Allison in the Atlantic. The rule was that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin, then it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area. But that is no longer the case. Now, the National Hurricane Center says that if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. However, if the tropical cyclone dissipates and if there is not an identifiable circulation remaining as it moves over Central America, and if it reforms when it gets into another ocean basin, the Hurricane Center will give the storm a new name
Quoting 286. weathermanwannabe:

My mistake Taz.............No Big Deal..............Still not convinced that it is going to form, cross-over, and become a viable entity in the BOC.
It's sure not easy for any system to track across Mexico from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and end up in one piece in the Bay of Campheche. At least the very early model tracks support a run along the Mexican west coast rather than a crossover. The shear in the BOC and western Gulf is still running in the 40 knot range so it's likely anything crossing is going to be rapidly chewed up unless it's at least a well-formed tropical storm. Anything that does happen is about 7-10 days away in any case, so it will be a fun time on the blog this week. :-)
Quoting 290. StormTrackerScott:



Solidly in Moderate El-Nino and closing in on Strong territory.


Lol. Using the standard tri-monthly ONI methodology (since this is a viable metric that can be applied over the entire historical record to eradicate smaller-scale variance relatively) unrelated to ENSO, this El Nino is still solidly in weak territory in ERSSTv4 & ERSSTv3b, with MAM coming in @ only +0.68 & +0.74C respectively. The earliest we will reach moderate territory (3 successive tri-monthlies >/= +1.0C) in either dataset is JJA...
1997 is about to pass us permanently in OISSTv2.
There are a few thunderstorms in the Gulf west of Florida this morning but not much else around. It's sunny with a temperature of 84 already here with a dewpoint of 71. Northern Alabama has a chance of some thunderstorms later today but it's not looking too hopeful this far south unless the MCS from Tennessee holds together better than usual. The high should be around 95.

Tomorrow makes the tenth anniversary of the formation of TS Arlene, the first storm of the incredible 2005 season, and the first CONUS landfalling storm as well. It came ashore near Pensacola in the afternoon on June 11 and moved north into Alabama. Most of the wind and rain were in west Alabama with east Alabama just having a glancing blow. Winds were in the 30 - 40 mph range with general rains of 2-4 inches. Except for Arlene being the earliest storm to make landfall since Allison in 1995 it wasn't really a remarkable storm. The public was pretty jacked up over Arlene since Alabama was still recovering from the effects of Ivan the previous year and Arlene was predicted to be a hurricane at landfall. Dry air weakened the storm just before landfall so Arlene wasn't a big problem, but it was the first of 28 storms that lasted all the way through January 6 of 2006. The records of 2005 should stand for as long as the lifetime of anyone reading this post -- we hope.

Quoting 293. Webberweather53:



Lol. Using the standard tri-monthly ONI methodology (since this is a viable metric that can be applied over the entire historical record to eradicate smaller-scale variance relatively) unrelated to ENSO, this El Nino is still solidly in weak territory in ERSSTv4 & ERSSTv3b, with MAM coming in @ only +0.68 & +0.74C respectively. The earliest we will reach moderate territory (3 successive tri-monthlies >/= +1.0C) in either dataset is JJA...
1997 is about to pass us permanently in OISSTv2.


From the experts. Also you forgot the AMJ as the ONI will likely come in @ 1.0C as May values were @ or over 1C and June will likely average 1.3C.


"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
Quoting 293. Webberweather53:



Lol. Using the standard tri-monthly ONI methodology (since this is a viable metric that can be applied over the entire historical record to eradicate smaller-scale variance relatively) unrelated to ENSO, this El Nino is still solidly in weak territory in ERSSTv4 & ERSSTv3b, with MAM coming in @ only +0.68 & +0.74C respectively. The earliest we will reach moderate territory (3 successive tri-monthlies >/= +1.0C) in either dataset is JJA...
1997 is about to pass us permanently in OISSTv2.


Also another the June update of the NMME came out and models are converging on a Nino close to the one back in 1997. Do we surpass it who knows but I thin k we get close. NMME mean is @ 2.3C

Where in Alabama do you see a high of 95 and I didn't see anywhere hit 99 like you said yesterday?
Quoting 294. sar2401:

There are a few thunderstorms in the Gulf west of Florida this morning but not much else around. It's sunny with a temperature of 84 already here with a dewpoint of 71. Northern Alabama has a chance of some thunderstorms later today but it's not looking too hopeful this far south unless the MCS from Tennessee holds together better than usual. The high should be around 95.

Tomorrow makes the tenth anniversary of the formation of TS Arlene, the first storm of the incredible 2005 season, and the first CONUS landfalling storm as well. It came ashore near Pensacola in the afternoon on June 11 and moved north into Alabama. Most of the wind and rain were in west Alabama with east Alabama just having a glancing blow. Winds were in the 30 - 40 mph range with general rains of 2-4 inches. Except for Arlene being the earliest storm to make landfall since Allison in 1995 it wasn't really a remarkable storm. The public was pretty jacked up over Arlene since Alabama was still recovering from the effects of Ivan the previous year and Arlene was predicted to be a hurricane at landfall. Dry air weakened the storm just before landfall so Arlene wasn't a big problem, but it was the first of 28 storms that lasted all the way through January 6 of 2006. The records of 2005 should stand for as long as the lifetime of anyone reading this post -- we hope.


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Can someone tell me what the OFFICIAL El Niño designation we are in right. Weak, moderate, strong?
301. MahFL
Interesting how Blanca is keeping cold cloud tops near it's center.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

FLZ172-081530-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 1130 AM EDT...

* AT 1022 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SHOWER
PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT LAUDERDALE...HOLLYWOOD...POMPANO BEACH...DEERFIELD BEACH...
LIGHTHOUSE POINT...LAUDERDALE-BY-THE-SEA...OAKLAND PARK...DANIA
BEACH...WILTON MANORS...HILLSBORO BEACH...SEA RANCH LAKES...PORT
EVERGLADES...FORT LAUDERDALE - HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE...FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...TERRA MAR...
POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT AND NORTH AndrewS GARDENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A WATERSPOUT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED...A LANDFALLING WATERSPOUT CAN CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE, SERIOUS
INJURY, OR EVEN DEATH. NEARBY PIERS...MARINAS...DOCKS...AND BEACH
FACILITIES ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE. HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN THE
PATH OF THIS WATERSPOUT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
ROOFS...PORCHES...AWNINGS...AND POOL ENCLOSURES.

&&

LAT...LON 2623 8009 2611 8010 2610 8010 2611 8012
2610 8011 2608 8011 2602 8012 2603 8012
2603 8013 2604 8016 2630 8012 2627 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1422Z 121DEG 6KT 2615 8011

$$