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Cat 5 Super Typhoon Hagupit Poised to Hit Philippine Islands Devastated by Haiyan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:32 PM GMT on December 04, 2014

Super Typhoon Hagupit has exploded into mighty Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb, and is threatening the same portion of the Philippine Islands devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. The spiral bands of the massive storm are already bringing gusty winds and heavy rain showers to Samar and Leyte Islands, which bore the brunt of Haiyan’s massive storm surge and incredible winds--rated at 190 mph at landfall on November 7, 2013 by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Haiyan killed over 7,000 people in the Philippines, with Tacloban (population 200,000) suffering the greatest casualties, thanks to a 20+’ storm surge. Thousands of people still live in tents in Tacloban in the wake of Haiyan, and mass evacuations have begun to get these vulnerable people to safety.


Figure 1. An infrared VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Hagupit from the Suomi satellite at 15:55 UTC December 3, 2014, revealed a structure very similar to that of the standard hurricane symbol (lower right.) At the time, Hagupit was an intensifying Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA/Colorado State.

Forecast for Hagupit
Hagupit is over very warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F) and is under moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Satellite loops show that Hagupit has a prominent 14-mile diameter eye, and a large area of very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. The eyewall is lopsided, due to winds on the east side of the storm causing wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and and interfering with development of the thunderstorms on the east side of the storm. Thursday morning microwave images indicate that Hagupit is likely undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall shrinks, collapses, and is replaced by an outer eyewall with larger diameter. This process will likely cause a modest weakening of Hagupit, to perhaps 150 mph winds, by Friday. But with warm waters and moderate wind shear expected until landfall, Hagupit should be able to make landfall as a very dangerous Category 4 typhoon in the Central Philippines. The ridge of high pressure steering Hagupit has weakened since Wednesday, forcing the storm to slow its forward speed from 21 mph to 14 mph. The trough of low pressure passing to the north that is weakening the ridge will move eastwards past the Philippines on Friday, which will potentially allow the ridge to build back in stronger than before, and force Hagupit on a more westerly path—or even west-southwesterly path—as it approaches landfall on Samar or Leyte Island near 12 UTC Saturday. Most of the models that had shown Hagupit recurving to the north and missing the Philippines have now followed the lead of the reliable European model, which has been consistently showing landfall in the Central Philippines. The latest 12Z Thursday runs of our two most reliable models, the GFS and European, are now very close, showing a landfall in southern Samar Island, just north of where Haiyan hit in November 2013. If this track hold true, it would avoid a major storm surge disaster in Tacolban like Haiyan brought. Extreme winds, a large and deadly storm surge, and torrential rains causing massive flooding and dangerous mudslides are all of great concern for where Hagupit makes landfall.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Hagupit at 02:10 UTC on Thursday December 4, 2014. At the time, Hagupit was a Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hagupit is Earth's seventh Category 5 storm of 2014
Hagupit is Earth's seventh Category 5 storm of the year, making it the busiest year for these most extreme of tropical cyclones since 2005. In that year, eleven Category 5s were recorded (4 in the Atlantic, 2 in the Western Pacific, 3 in the South Indian, and 2 in the South Pacific.) Hagupit is the fifth Category 5 in the Western Pacific in 2014, and the fourth with a pressure of 915 mb or lower, as rated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The last time four or more typhoons reached that intensity was 1997, when five did so. The other Category 5 storms of 2014:

Super Typhoon Nuri hit 180 mph winds east of Japan on November 3. The Japan Meteorological Agency put Nuri's lowest central pressure at 910 mb. The extratropical remounts of Nuri went on to bomb into one of the most intense extratropical storms ever observed in the waters near Alaska, with a central pressure of 924 mb.

Super Typhoon Vongfong also had 180 mph winds south of Japan. Vongfong battered Japan's Okinawa Island on October 9 - 10, killing 11 and doing $58 million in damage. The Japan Meteorological Agency put Vonfong's central pressure at 900 mb at the storm's peak intensity, the lowest pressure it has given to a storm since Super Typhoon Haiyan's 895 mb pressure in November 2013.

Super Typhoon Halong topped out at 160 mph winds with a central pressure of 920 mb on August 3, eventually making landfall in Japan on August 10 as a tropical storm. Halong killed 12 and did $4 million in damage.

Super Typhoon Genevieve (160 mph winds, 915 mb pressure) did not affect land.

Another Western Pacific Super Typhoon, Rammasun, was only rated a Cat 4 when it hit China's Hainan Island on July 17, killing 195 people and causing over $7 billion in damage. However, a pressure characteristic of a Category 5 storm, 899.2 mb, was recorded at Qizhou Island just before Rammasun hit Hainan Island. If this pressure is verified, it is likely that the storm will be upgraded to be 2014’s eighth Category 5 storm in post-season reanalysis.

The Eastern Pacific had one Cat 5 in 2014 that did not affect land: Marie (160 mph winds). The South Indian Ocean has had one Cat 5 this year, Tropical Cyclone Gillian in March (160 mph winds.) Gillian did not affect any land areas. Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific. Since 1996, only two years have had more than eight Category 5 storms in one year: 1997 (thirteen) and 2005 (eleven.)

Our database of these most extreme of tropical cyclones is of poor quality and there are not enough of them to say if they are showing climate-related trends yet or not, but the forecast is for more of these high-end tropical cyclones to occur in a warmer climate. The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions, and the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment said “Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters



Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Dont look good.
Thanks Dr. Masters. A repost from the last blog: 12z GFS is almost completely over to the Euro solution now. Landfall in 2 days near Tacloban. It bends NW a little from there, similar to the JTWC track. With the way things are going though it may just run straight west like the Euro has shown all along.

My sister in law is in the PI right now.

Hoping for her safety.
Thanks Dr. Masters! Hope everyone in the Philippines stays safe.
Thanks Dr. Masters...
Thanks dr. Masters, your new update pretty much answered my questions, im flying into manila, via tokyo on dec 7' 9:30 p.m.....can anyone tell me what the likely conditions will be in manila sat. Night? Or if my flight will likely be canceled, and i get stuck in tokyo?....maybe its too soon to know,....delta wants $2000 to reschedule to next week,...this is supposed to be the beginning of the dry season....??....thnx
the GFS really hasn't been great lately. It totally screwed up the east coast nor'easter just before thanksgiving too. It may end up correct about the new possible storm for early next week as the Euro has backed off on it for a bit. But too bad it was wrong about this typhoon recurbing. I hope it's also wrong about a warm mid-december in new England... but with New England weather it's anyone's guess anyway.
22W/STY/H/C5
RI FLAG OFF
EWRC FLAG
thanks doc.......does anyone know the annual average number of worldwide systems that reach cat 5
Quoting 8. Inyo:

the GFS really hasn't been great lately. It totally screwed up the east coast nor'easter just before thanksgiving too. It may end up correct about the new possible storm for early next week as the Euro has backed off on it for a bit. But too bad it was wrong about this typhoon recurbing. I hope it's also wrong about a warm mid-december in new England... but with New England weather it's anyone's guess anyway.
Uh, I will be elated if there is a warm mid-December. I've been in New England since April and it's horribly cold here.
Quoting 9. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

22W/STY/H/C5
RI FLAG OFF
EWRC FLAG

In your opinion (or anyone else who wants to chime in) does the storm have any chance of getting back to a big Cat 4 or Cat 5 after an EWRC?
Repost from last blog...

The Central/Northern Philippians need to heed their warnings! But since this has reached 175 MPH, it might just recurve in the nick of time-giving them only a glancing blow. If not, it'll recurve right over them or to the west of them in response to a weakness in the STR and trough over at Japan!
Repost from last blog...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Lower 48 is gonna be given the blast furnace for much of this month. The next week or so will feature some cold shots still with the storm threat in the east in 5-7 days (though that storm looks less likely this morning). But the 10-20 day range is looking very warm, record warm maybe. Some signs of a cool down towards the end of the month, but this warmth will take time to dislodge.







Hue!!!

From WXEastern...

Polar vortex (Currently located over the north pole) is getting ready to take a beating and split into many pieces and head southward as higher heights and pressures surge northward and replace what was lower pressures/heights. This will lower pressures/heights and dump Arctic air in the lower latitudes by copious amounts. Don't let the current warm spell on the east coast fool you. Winter is just getting started!!

Mix this with a very active subtropical jet stream and the result is cold and snowy. It may take til late December(20th) before the coldest values are realized but all signs are now pointing to this. The guidance models haven't really picked up on it just yet but the current weather pattern screams it!!
Quoting 12. MAstu:

In your opinion (or anyone else who wants to chime in) does the storm have any chance of getting back to a big Cat 4 or Cat 5 after an EWRC?
still has cat 5 winds it will take a few hrs to see how it handles the cycle of the eye wall replacement really to be honest but it should regain its presentation but need a few hrs to see how it goes
Quoting 7. highlonesome1963:

Thanks dr. Masters, your new update pretty much answered my questions, im flying into manila, via tokyo on dec 7' 9:30 p.m.....can anyone tell me what the likely conditions will be in manila sat. Night? Or if my flight will likely be canceled, and i get stuck in tokyo?....maybe its too soon to know,....delta wants $2000 to reschedule to next week,...this is supposed to be the beginning of the dry season....??....thnx


No way to know for sure, but Manilla was out of range of the storm in 2013. The tent cities in Tacloban are being evacuated, some to Manila, to get out of the range of the storm. But I have no idea what will happen with air traffic.
Quoting highlonesome1963:
Thanks dr. Masters, your new update pretty much answered my questions, im flying into manila, via tokyo on dec 7' 9:30 p.m.....can anyone tell me what the likely conditions will be in manila sat. Night? Or if my flight will likely be canceled, and i get stuck in tokyo?....maybe its too soon to know,....delta wants $2000 to reschedule to next week,...this is supposed to be the beginning of the dry season....??....thnx
The danger is a recurve to the NW starting just before the typhoon makes landfall. That would put metro Manila more at risk than a straight westward path. I assume you're flying into Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL). That airport will be directly affected by any NW path. You can check out conditions at MNL at Flight Stats, a reasonably reliable overview of what's happening with delays and cancellations, and Delta's web site. Delta won't fly if they think there's even a slight chance of having planes on the ground in a typhoon.
Quoting 14. weatherbro:

Repost from last blog...



Hue!!!

From WXEastern...

Polar vortex (Currently located over the north pole) is getting ready to take a beating and split into many pieces and head southward as higher heights and pressures surge northward and replace what was lower pressures/heights. This will lower pressures/heights and dump Arctic air in the lower latitudes by copious amounts. Don't let the current warm spell on the east coast fool you. Winter is just getting started!!

Mix this with a very active subtropical jet stream and the result is cold and snowy. It may take til late December(20th) before the coldest values are realized but all signs are now pointing to this. The guidance models haven't really picked up on it just yet but the current weather pattern screams it!!


70 hPa ~17,500 m, stratosphere
2014-12-04 10:00 Local %u21C4 UTC
Quoting Inyo:
the GFS really hasn't been great lately. It totally screwed up the east coast nor'easter just before thanksgiving too. It may end up correct about the new possible storm for early next week as the Euro has backed off on it for a bit. But too bad it was wrong about this typhoon recurbing. I hope it's also wrong about a warm mid-december in new England... but with New England weather it's anyone's guess anyway.
We won't know which model was wrong or right until at least Saturday or possibly Sunday. It appears that a recurve may have already started, coincident with the EWRC. This should lead to a slowdown in forward speed, which might favor a recurve. It may also lead to at least a slight weakening before landfall. This is one of those storms that we won't know the path until six or so hours before landfall. Things can and do change fast in the tropical cyclone world.
Quoting 14. weatherbro:

Repost from last blog...



Hue!!!

From WXEastern...

Polar vortex (Currently located over the north pole) is getting ready to take a beating and split into many pieces and head southward as higher heights and pressures surge northward and replace what was lower pressures/heights. This will lower pressures/heights and dump Arctic air in the lower latitudes by copious amounts. Don't let the current warm spell on the east coast fool you. Winter is just getting started!!

Mix this with a very active subtropical jet stream and the result is cold and snowy. It may take til late December(20th) before the coldest values are realized but all signs are now pointing to this. The guidance models haven't really picked up on it just yet but the current weather pattern screams it!!


We'll see. I wouldn't put your faith in a source like that. Here's the new operational GFS 10 days out.



6 days later.

.....ooooofh'



Quoting 20. MAweatherboy1:


We'll see. I wouldn't put your faith in a source like that. Here's the new operational GFS 10 days out.



6 days later.


23. Inyo
Quoting 11. MAstu:

Uh, I will be elated if there is a warm mid-December. I've been in New England since April and it's horribly cold here.


It is cold here. But one thing I've learned... if it's cold, it might as well be snowy. Much warmer than average here probably means highs in 40s and lows in 20s, rain and ice ice ice... can't really go outside, can't ski, every driveway and parking lot turns to ice, can't hike beacuse every trail is ice, can't snowshoe, can't ice skate, can't go swimming... it sucks. I've been through 5 Vermont winters so far not counting this one - moved here from warm southern California - and by FAR the 'hardest' winter I went through was 2011-2012 which was one of the warmest in history. Last winter was extremely cold and was MUCH easier to get through. We spent a lot of time outside except the subzero days when we stayed indoors and bundled up (can't deny cold years are harder on the wood pile). I left the cold winter chilled and exhausted but fulfiled and ready for Spring. The warm winter was just a long disappointing trudge through half frozen mud and spring didn't seem as fun after that either.
My advice: if you can, every time it snows get outside and play in it. It makes the winter a LOT more bearable.
24. Inyo
Quoting 19. sar2401:

We won't know which model was wrong or right until at least Saturday or possibly Sunday. It appears that a recurve may have already started, coincident with the EWRC. This should lead to a slowdown in forward speed, which might favor a recurve. It may also lead to at least a slight weakening before landfall. This is one of those storms that we won't know the path until six or so hours before landfall. Things can and do change fast in the tropical cyclone world.

Absolutely. I'm not saying count the GFS out!
Quoting weatherbro:
Repost from last blog...



Hue!!!

From WXEastern...

Polar vortex (Currently located over the north pole) is getting ready to take a beating and split into many pieces and head southward as higher heights and pressures surge northward and replace what was lower pressures/heights. This will lower pressures/heights and dump Arctic air in the lower latitudes by copious amounts. Don't let the current warm spell on the east coast fool you. Winter is just getting started!!

Mix this with a very active subtropical jet stream and the result is cold and snowy. It may take til late December(20th) before the coldest values are realized but all signs are now pointing to this. The guidance models haven't really picked up on it just yet but the current weather pattern screams it!!
That may be a plausible solution but, at 21 days out (at least), continued warmth is also just as plausible. When the persistent polar low breaks up, the predictability of how big each piece becomes and where they are headed becomes even more of a wild card than an intact polar low. Where Hagupit ends up could also throw a monkey wrench into all the model forecasts. Really, no one has a way to confidently predict weather three weeks out. I'd be happy if they could just get it right for seven days consistently.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We'll see. I wouldn't put your faith in a source like that. Here's the new operational GFS 10 days out.



6 days later.



It's a reputable sourse, not a hype machine like JB.
thanks dok!

Oh, how can it get any worse?!
*Kicks his car and then an iceberg in Antartica blows up*
map of region if anyone interested

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
That's the path I most fear with Hagupit/Ruby. It will chew up Samar and all the population centers on the Luzon Peninsula before making an almost direct hit on metro Manila. Anyone who's ever been to Manila knows that the city barely functions on a day to day basis let alone a direct hit from a super typhoon. Unfortunately, since it looks like there's no way the Philippines is going to avoid Hagupit, a path directly westward at least avoids most the heavily urbanized parts of the Philippines. It's the best of all the bad alternatives. :-(
Thank You Dr. Pretty impressive stats in terms of the frequency for high cat Typhoons in that part of the world.

Prayers out again for the folks in the path of this one. Have not looked at the long-term tracks for this one; any chance of another poleward shift downstream during the extra-tropical transition, with another "ripple" effect in the jet for North America?

Thanks in advance.

Quoting sar2401:
That's the path I most fear with Hagupit/Ruby. It will chew up Samar and all the population centers on the Luzon Peninsula before making an almost direct hit on metro Manila. Anyone who's ever been to Manila knows that the city barely functions on a day to day basis let alone a direct hit from a super typhoon. Unfortunately, since it looks like there's no way the Philippines is going to avoid Hagupit, a path directly westward at least avoids most the heavily urbanized parts of the Philippines. It's the best of all the bad alternatives. :-(

I agree with you, sar. Let's hope for all or one of these things:
1. It dissipates rapidly before the landfall point.
2. The Philipines ride through and there is no damage or deaths.
Hagupit looks like a monster on some of the imagery that I have seen. hopefully it weakens enough to not be devastating to the Philippines.

Pretty significant storm imo.
Quoting 31. sar2401:

That's the path I most fear with Hagupit/Ruby. It will chew up Samar and all the population centers on the Luzon Peninsula before making an almost direct hit on metro Manila. Anyone who's ever been to Manila knows that the city barely functions on a day to day basis let alone a direct hit from a super typhoon. Unfortunately, since it looks like there's no way the Philippines is going to avoid Hagupit, a path directly westward at least avoids most the heavily urbanized parts of the Philippines. It's the best of all the bad alternatives. :-(
it will be a weaken c2 over manila not that that's good but better than a c4 or c5 maybe it wont recover from current EWRC and will spin down but still lots of water with it no matter how it goes
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We'll see. I wouldn't put your faith in a source like that. Here's the new operational GFS 10 days out.



6 days later.

I think the GFS has gone bonker.s it is suppose to get an upgrade next month. So it is kind of confused right now. :) ;)
Quoting 26. sar2401:

That may be a plausible solution but, at 21 days out (at least), continued warmth is also just as plausible. When the persistent polar low breaks up, the predictability of how big each piece becomes and where they are headed becomes even more of a wild card than an intact polar low. Where Hagupit ends up could also throw a monkey wrench into all the model forecasts. Really, no one has a way to confidently predict weather three weeks out. I'd be happy if they could just get it right for seven days consistently.


I'd be happy if they could get it right six hours out. The pre-Thanksgiving snow storm was supposed to start as rain late morning and then change to snow in the mid-afternoon. Instead it was snowing very hard 30 minutes after it started and I ended up driving five hours through a tree snapping, white knuckle, quarter mile visibility nightmare that should have been mostly rain with snow starting to mix in at the end.
Glad to see Hagupit starting to weaken and undergoing a possible ERC. Hopefully with moderate shear, the ERC will weaken the system down to a category 3 or less before landfall. However it's still likely to bring with it a large storm surge and lots of heavy rain. Thoughts to those in the Philippines that will be affected and hope damage will be minimal.
Quoting 36. Andrebrooks:

I think the GFS has gone bonker.s it is suppose to get an upgrade next month. So it is kind of confused right now. :) ;)


I don't discount cold or warm but the GFS has been a loony tune for the last month. It just does the craziest things from one model run to another. Behaves like a teenager going through puberty....
22W/STY/H/C4


TXPQ28 KNES 041536
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 04/1432Z

C. 11.2N

D. 130.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...HAGUPIT HAS CMG SURROUNDING TEMP WITH AN OW EYE AND CDG RING
TEMP FOR DT=7.0. EYE HAS TIGHTENED UP OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH EYEWALL
DIAMETER NOW 10NMI. SYSTEM MAY HAVE PEAKED AS FT IS .5 LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
TWO CLASSIFICATIONS AND EYE TEMP IS NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER. MET=7.0
BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING TREND. PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI
Quoting 20. MAweatherboy1:


We'll see. I wouldn't put your faith in a source like that. Here's the new operational GFS 10 days out.



6 days later.


I can't see any pic or open the tropical tidbits page.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it will be a weaken c2 over manila not that that's good but better than a c4 or c5 maybe it wont recover from current EWRC and will spin down but still lots of water with it no matter how it goes
Yeah, and the water is the biggest threat. It's not unusual for storms like this to drop from 25 to 45 inches of rain in a three day period. It's been a long time since the metro Manila area has suffered a direct or near direct hit from a typhoon. Rammasun, in July of this year was the closest, I think, and it went south of Manila. It still caused a lot of damage from flooding and wind, with the last damage estimates I've heard being $1 billion. A hit with Hagupit going further north before it hits Manila puts all the most heavily populated areas of the province most at risk. Manila has, in some ways, a better infrastructure than most of the Philippines, and Rammasun still knocked out 90% of the power in metro Manila. The whole layout of metro Manila resembles south Florida in a lot of ways, so imagine a cat 2 or 3 making a direct hit on Miami. Terrible...
Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will be a weaken c2 over manila not that that's good but better than a c4 or c5 maybe it wont recover from current EWRC and will spin down but still lots of water with it no matter how it goes
Agreed. The deadliest tropical weather system to hit the Philippines before Haiyan was a TS.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Thelma
>5000 dead
Quoting Gearsts:
I can't see any pic or open the tropical tidbits page.
Working fine for me right now. As I said previously, moving things to a new server means there will be a lot of short outages until it's all complete, and Tropical Tidbits has grown into a pretty big site. Patience!
With the EPAC waters near the Philippines getting so warm and to such depth, it's a good bet that the chances of some part of the country getting smacked by a super typhoon every single year are only going to get higher. At some point it becomes futile to try and live with such conditions on a regular basis.
I WOULD LOVE 20C above normal temps for December! That'll give me 70 degree weather and I will take it.


Quoting 42. Gearsts:

I can't see any pic or open the tropical tidbits page.
Thanks for the Update, Dr. Masters....
Quoting tlawson48:


I'd be happy if they could get it right six hours out. The pre-Thanksgiving snow storm was supposed to start as rain late morning and then change to snow in the mid-afternoon. Instead it was snowing very hard 30 minutes after it started and I ended up driving five hours through a tree snapping, white knuckle, quarter mile visibility nightmare that should have been mostly rain with snow starting to mix in at the end.
True, but that kind of thing is really independent of the models. We have no models with the resolution to predict things like rain/snow changeover with any accuracy at all. It really is on the local offices at that point, since they are most familiar with small scale weather patterns that affect their CWA more than anyone at the national level. Sometimes they are really on top of things (and lucky) so they nail things in the short term that models don't ever see. Other times, they're not lucky or not on top of things and miss the forecast. This January, for example, Birmingham wasn't staying on top of the early morning weather in Alabama, and Birmingham didn't get a winter weather advisory until about six hours before the snow started to fall. In this case, the changeover to snow had already started in south Alabama and was creeping north before BMX did get on top of it. Sometimes, things happen, but that's one of the reasons I take any forecast more than seven days out as pure conjecture.
Quoting 45. sar2401:

Working fine for me right now. As I said previously, moving things to a new server means there will be a lot of short outages until it's all complete, and Tropical Tidbits has grown into a pretty big site. Patience!
Just asking.
If you don't think that what happens in Asia (in the Northern Hemisphere) affects us here, think again because of the prevailing wind and ocean current flow from those parts to North America. Whether ocean debris from Fukashima or the ripple effect from Typhoons moving towards the poles, both Asia and North America are connected. If the SST's in the Philippines (the 20 year gradual increase) contribute to more of these November-December strong Typhoons for them, with the ripple effect issue (with record snowfall in the mid-West due to the ripples combined with the Lake effect), it could get interesting in the coming decades with tropical Pacific air masses moving over the Arctic/North America at the start of their winter and the potential for enhanced snow or other precip..........................Fascinating stuff.
Super Typhoon Hagupit

Super Typhoon Hagupit
Last Updated Dec 4, 2014 12 GMT
Location 11.0N 131.3E Movement WNW
Wind 170 MPH
Thanks for the Update, Dr. Masters....
Quoting weatherbro:


It's a reputable sourse, not a hype machine like JB.
Do you have a link to the source of the your post? Is it AmericanWX.com or at easternuswx.com, or at some other site I don't follow?
Quoting Gearsts:
Just asking.
I know, but patience is still a good thing. :-)
Quoting MAstu:
Agreed. The deadliest tropical weather system to hit the Philippines before Haiyan was a TS.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Thelma
>5000 dead
And Thelma was still far south of Luzon and metro Manila. A NW recurve, unless it happens now, won't save the rest of the central Philippines from Hagupit and puts even more people at risk. This has the potential to be a historic storm, both in damage and in lives lost. I sure hope not.
Thanks for ur input, i know all too well what manila will be like after a typhoon hit, but it looks like i have no-choice but to go ahead and leave, unless delta steps up to the plate and tries to avoid this storm. i have another 12 hr trip from manila......i have this uneasy feeling this is going to be a long one
Last year during Haiyan we had some Chasers at Tacloban. Has anyone heard if they are there again? I can't remember who it was. But i followed their feeds till they lost them.
Quoting 47. nickharger:

I WOULD LOVE 20C above normal temps for December! That'll give me 70 degree weather and I will take it.





I was hoping for a foot of snow, well I wish for that every year never get it.


Here's something we haven't seen in a while. OKC has $1.99 gas... Link


Quoting 51. weathermanwannabe:

If you don't think that what happens in Asia (in the Northern Hemisphere) affects us here, think again because of the prevailing wind and ocean current flow from those parts to North America. Whether ocean debris from Fukashima or the ripple effect from Typhoons moving towards the poles, both Asia and North America are connected. If the SST's in the Philippines (the 20 year gradual increase) contribute to more of these November-December strong Typhoons for them, with the ripple effect issue (with record snowfall in the mid-West due to the ripples combined with the Lake effect), it could get interesting in the coming decades with tropical Pacific air masses moving over the Arctic/North America at the start of their winter and the potential for enhanced snow or other precip..........................Fascinating stuff.


Ain't that the truth. The forecast models seem to be having difficulty with these evolving patterns as well. So not only does it mean the weather is getting stranger, it also may mean our ability to predict it may go in the toilet.
Quoting sar2401:
True, but that kind of thing is really independent of the models. We have no models with the resolution to predict things like rain/snow changeover with any accuracy at all. It really is on the local offices at that point, since they are most familiar with small scale weather patterns that affect their CWA more than anyone at the national level. Sometimes they are really on top of things (and lucky) so they nail things in the short term that models don't ever see. Other times, they're not lucky or not on top of things and miss the forecast. This January, for example, Birmingham wasn't staying on top of the early morning weather in Alabama, and Birmingham didn't get a winter weather advisory until about six hours before the snow started to fall. In this case, the changeover to snow had already started in south Alabama and was creeping north before BMX did get on top of it. Sometimes, things happen, but that's one of the reasons I take any forecast more than seven days out as pure conjecture.



Yeah, you're definitely asking too much if you expect any model or meteorologist to accurately predict exactly where the rain/snow line is going to setup and the exact time the rain is going to switch over to snow.

I lived in the Washington DC area for 16 years and I've had the rain/snow line right over my neighborhood on many occasions. At my friends house down on the Potomac River it would be raining and just a few miles away at my house it would be snowing.

And every news station for about a week was telling people that the day before Thanksgiving would be a bad weather travel day with snow possibilities up the East Coast. So the bad weather shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone.
Thanks for ur input, i know all too well what manila will be like after a typhoon hit, but it looks like i have no-choice but to go ahead and leave, unless delta steps up to the plate and tries to avoid this storm. i have another 12 hr trip from manila......i have this uneasy feeling this is going to be a long one
How we were all hoping we would not see this path.

Storm Frequency
Tropical storms and Typhoons by month,
for the period 1959–2011 (Northwest Pacific)


Month

Count

Average

Jan 25 0.5
Feb 12 0.2
Mar 23 0.4
Apr 34 0.6
May 63 1.2
Jun 90 1.7
Jul 205 3.9
Aug 296 5.6
Sep 262 4.9
Oct 210 4.0
Nov 133 2.5
Dec 66 1.2
Annual 1419 26.8
Source: JTWC[14]


nice storm in the west
Quoting 60. tlawson48:



Ain't that the truth. The forecast models seem to be having difficulty with these evolving patterns as well. So not only does it mean the weather is getting stranger, it also may mean our ability to predict it may go in the toilet.


It's basically the same pattern with the Atlantic; many of our hurricanes and Nor'Easters swing in the same polar orbit towards Northern Europe, across the North Atlantic, and bring them storm force gales down-stream. This issue with this one is the intensity-frequency issue for these early Winter Pacific systems and the impact on North America. We don't know where the "pattern" will ultimately settle but it basically boils down to continued forecasting on a system by system basis to give the folks "on the other" side, some advance warning of the coming weather as a result.

Forget long-term modelling on this issue for the time being IMHO; it's too difficult to predict with any real certainty at this time.
Evening everyone and thanks, doc, for the new entry with the frightening IR shot of Hagupit!

ECMWF (the "Euro") run 12z changed its track forecast to the north, showing Hagupit plowing right into Eastern Samar (a bit more northern than Haiyan) and continue to go WNW - quite a slow mover btw.

Two screenshots for Saturday (landfall) and Sunday:





Source
Little over 48 hours until landfall in this advisory..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
3:00 AM JST December 5 2014
==================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (905 hPa) located at 11.4N 130.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 11.4N 128.1E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 11.3N 125.9E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.7N 123.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Philippines (Visayas)
Quoting 62. highlonesome1963:

Thanks for ur input, i know all too well what manila will be like after a typhoon hit, but it looks like i have no-choice but to go ahead and leave, unless delta steps up to the plate and tries to avoid this storm. i have another 12 hr trip from manila......i have this uneasy feeling this is going to be a long one


Be safe on your travels ! Rather you than me


All rights reserved. Copyright©Japan Meteorological Agency
75. Inyo
Is this typhoon far enough north to influence the arctic jet stream? I mean, everything influences everything, but in a meaningful and noticeable way? It doesn't seem forecast to head north and go extratropical.
LinkN ote this is Haiyan's path not Hagupit's predicted path

Quoting 60. tlawson48:



Ain't that the truth. The forecast models seem to be having difficulty with these evolving patterns as well. So not only does it mean the weather is getting stranger, it also may mean our ability to predict it may go in the toilet.


Statistical models, conceptual models, and rules of thumb will have trouble with gross pattern changes perhaps caused by AGW. Dynamical models mostly will not. These integrate the fluid equations using Newton's Laws and other first principles. Some things (e.g. convection) can't be resolved and are parameterized. These paramaterisations may become less valid when the overall regimes change. But if the jet stream becomes extremely loopy and we go from mostly midlatitude westerlies to some kind of weird convoluted and complex cutoff pattern regime, the equations will just handle a different set of initial conditions bound by the same physics.

Our models still have problems with today's (and yesterday's ) patterns. I don't expect them to get much worse with the different patterns of tomorrow.
Quoting highlonesome1963:
Thanks for ur input, i know all too well what manila will be like after a typhoon hit, but it looks like i have no-choice but to go ahead and leave, unless delta steps up to the plate and tries to avoid this storm. i have another 12 hr trip from manila......i have this uneasy feeling this is going to be a long one
Are your travels going to take you south or north of Manila? It appears now that, regardless of the exact path of Hagupit, travel south of Manila is going to be exceedingly difficult or impossible, with most overland routes being cutoff by landslides or flooding. Things may not be quite as bad north of Manila, but how bad is unknown, depending on the eventual track of Hagupit. I don't know what kind of work you do but, unless it's something vital to national security, I'd evaluate conditions on the ground before I went anywhere, and not travel at all until Hagupit is past and you know exactly what's happening. A job is one thing. Returning from the Philippines in a box is another thing altogether.
1901 UTC Image

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds




The trends all show Weaker...from earlier.

A good thing.


IR-based TC size

Ahh, Roger dat Houston, we copy, WEAKENING flag ON, ..........datz, "O-N"..over?

also,,,,can someone contact Taz on the wu big loop and forward dis message to Him as well?

SCENE TYPE: " PINHOLE EYE "

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 DEC 2014 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 11:28:29 N Lon : 130:16:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 911.8mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -29.2C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT

Weakening Flag : ON

Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.8 degrees



Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


70 hPa ~17,500 m, stratosphere
2014-12-04 10:00 Local %u21C4 UTC

Unless I am looking incorrectly , it would appear we will get the bigger piece of the pie...so to speak....greetings keep.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, you're definitely asking too much if you expect any model or meteorologist to accurately predict exactly where the rain/snow line is going to setup and the exact time the rain is going to switch over to snow.

I lived in the Washington DC area for 16 years and I've had the rain/snow line right over my neighborhood on many occasions. At my friends house down on the Potomac River it would be raining and just a few miles away at my house it would be snowing.

And every news station for about a week was telling people that the day before Thanksgiving would be a bad weather travel day with snow possibilities up the East Coast. So the bad weather shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone.

Quite true. It would be like asking the NWS in the morning if you were going to have a thunderstorm right over your house in the afternoon. We just don't have the ability to make that kind of accurate forecast, even a couple hours in advance, let alone days. Weeks become kind of a fictional event. I will say, however, that as much as models have helped us predict weather better, I don't like to see an over-dependence on models either. The local forecasters usually have a much better "feel" about the next day or so, based on their local experience. I remember reading the discussion out of BMX a day or so before the January winter storm hit. They were discussing the possibility that snow might make it into Birmingham, and I think the locals did feel that the chances of that happening were greater than what the models predicted. They were reluctant to go up against the models though, so they decided not to mention snow in the forecast. Unfortunately, I think that's becoming a trend in some offices.
Quoting 58. lostinohio:

Last year during Haiyan we had some Chasers at Tacloban. Has anyone heard if they are there again? I can't remember who it was. But i followed their feeds till they lost them.


One of them was James Reynolds aka typhoonfury. His former twitter account obviously was hacked by a Russian, but Reynolds got a new one up - and he is already in the Philippines to chase Hagupit.

Here is his new twitter account: EarthUncutTV. Currently it's night over there.
WPac weather video blogger Robert Speta got a new Hagupit-Video up:



His homepage: http://www.westernpacificweather.com/
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
The EWRC seems to be in process now, with eye becoming obscured, the storm taking on a more ragged appearance, and what appears to be some slowing down in the last frames. Now, if we only knew how much weaker, how much slower, and how this will affect the track...
We need some breaks to make a difference.

Im hoping the trend will stay on its downward slide..

Hopefully this is not a complete eyewall replacement bottom-bucket were seeing with a ramp up to follow come dawn there.

Lotsa things can happen.

We def don't want a Major traveling west then dipping down then due N.

ReliefWEB is on call, standing by.

The Community of Global Typhoon/Hurricane Met aficionado's needs a Unit to step up and establish a good RECON system there.

Data from RECON within the storm now would be of great value...to Millions.






Quoting 81. sar2401:

Are your travels going to take you south or north of Manila? It appears now that, regardless of the exact path of Hagupit, travel south of Manila is going to be exceedingly difficult or impossible, with most overland routes being cutoff by landslides or flooding. Things may not be quite as bad north of Manila, but how bad is unknown, depending on the eventual track of Hagupit. I don't know what kind of work you do but, unless it's something vital to national security, I'd evaluate conditions on the ground before I went anywhere, and not travel at all until Hagupit is past and you know exactly what's happening. A job is one thing. Returning from the Philippines in a box is another thing altogether.


The Mobile Service Tower rolls back from the Delta IV Heavy with the Orion on launch pad 37B at Cape Canaveral(Reuters)

The Thursday, Dec. 4 launch of Orion’s flight test has been scrubbed because of an issue related to fill and drain valves on the Delta IV Heavy rocket that teams could not troubleshoot by the time the launch window expired. The next launch window opens at 7:05 a.m. Eastern on Friday, Dec. 5.

The un-crewed Orion will orbit 3,600 miles above Earth before splashing down in the Pacific. Orion is being designed to carry astronauts on exploration missions into deep space, including a trip to an asteroid and eventually to Mars.
is this California's rainy season?.........................................
Hi all. Been a while. Florida has been quiet. I do, however, have family in Southern Leyte, Cebu and a stepdaughter in Manila. Please keep advised so I can keep contact with them, they do not have the ability to monitor as we do in the States. Thank you in advance.


Antarctic seawater temperatures rising

The temperature of the seawater around Antarctica is rising according to new research from the University of East Anglia.

New research published today in the journal Science shows how shallow shelf seas of West Antarctica have warmed over the last 50 years.

The international research team say that this has accelerated the melting and sliding of glaciers in the area, and that there is no indication that this trend will reverse.

It also reveals that other Antarctic areas, which have not yet started to melt, could experience melting for the first time with consequences for sea-level rise.

Read more at: Link

not good
Go to my ENSO Blog and you will read the CPC blog where they explain why they didn't declared officially El Nino on the December update.
Quoting 95. LargoFl:

is this California's rainy season?.........................................


Looking at the California radar, there is a very impressive line of storms approaching the North. Very beneficial rains.
101. yoboi
Quoting 100. luvtogolf:



Looking at the California radar, there is a very impressive line of storms approaching the North. Very beneficial rains.



Weather goes in cycles......
Quoting 95. LargoFl:
is this California's rainy season?.........................................


Winter is always the wet season, but the last 3 winters have been insanely dry. It's great to see stuff like this in the forecast on a regular basis.
Quoting 98. MAstu:


not good

That track on the projection is probably the worst case scenario for a landfall and storm track, as its taking the path over previously devastated areas into the direction of Manila.
I think we can predict of expect a lo of devastation if this path plays out.
Added to this is the fact that the storm passes over a large area of islands, leading to certain coastal problems with waves and river flooding.
Quoting 102. TimSoCal:



Winter is always the wet season, but the last 3 winters have been insanely dry. It's great to see stuff like this in the forecast on a regular basis.


went through northern California this August up by the Redwoods .. and everything was very dry .. the whole NW was very dry .. 3 weeks in Seattle and it rained for 2 hours ..
Quoting highlonesome1963:
Try again. It looks like your reply was lost somewhere in the quote box. Just make sure you type below this box or things get all messed up.
Last year during Haiyan we had some Chasers at Tacloban. Has anyone heard if they are there again? I can't remember who it was. But i followed their feeds till they lost them.


One of them was James Reynolds aka typhoonfury. His former twitter account obviously was hacked by a Russian, but Reynolds got a new one up - and he is already in the Philippines to chase Hagupit.

Here is his new twitter account: EarthUncutTV. Currently it's night over there.

THANKS!!!!!!
Quoting 103. PlazaRed:


That track on the projection is probably the worst case scenario for a landfall and storm track, as its taking the path over previously devastated areas into the direction of Manila.
I think we can predict of expect a lo of devastation if this path plays out.
Added to this is the fact that the storm passes over a large area of islands, leading to certain coastal problems with waves and river flooding.
Parts of that region suffered heavy damage from Rammasun in July of this year..Most areas have not recovered..



Formed July 9, 2014
Dissipated July 20, 2014
Highest winds 10-minute sustained: 165 km/h (105 mph)
1-minute sustained: 250 km/h (155 mph)
Lowest pressure 935 mbar (hPa); 27.61 inHg
Fatalities 195 total
Damage $7.13 billion (2014 USD)

Areas affected

Caroline Islands
Mariana Islands
Philippines
China
Hong Kong
Macau
Vietnam

Quoting TimSoCal:


Winter is always the wet season, but the last 3 winters have been insanely dry. It's great to see stuff like this in the forecast on a regular basis.
It looks like this last round was finally a typical Pacific storm, with the coastal mountains getting the highest totals and less, but still respectable, amounts in the valleys. I haven't seen the total out of southern California but the storms on radar looked like a similar pattern. Looks like more periods of rain next week after a mostly dry weekend. At least it was enough to wash all the last three years worth of grease off the freeways so you don't have to worry about hydroplaning cars as much. :-) I have no idea what "sonoma Colorado" is supposed to mean in the list. It's in Sonoma County, so maybe the person was thinking about a ski trip or something.

..5 day storm total rainfall as of 5pm Wednesday...


Location amount


Mining Ridge (big sur coast) 11.98 inches
Ben Lomond 10.12
Anderson Peak (big sur coast) 9.73
Mount Tamalpais 7.34
Venado (sonoma Colorado.) 7.04
Kentfield 5.78
Mount Diablo 5.17
Big Sur 4.97
San Rafael 4.94
San Francisco 4.33
Santa Rosa 4.32
Redwood City 4.14
Santa Cruz 3.91
Oakland 3.72
San Jose 3.67
Napa 3.09
Livermore 2.95
Concord 2.65
Monterey 1.32
Salinas 1.06
Haiyan.



Formed November 3, 2013
Dissipated November 11, 2013
Highest winds 10-minute sustained: 230 km/h (145 mph)
1-minute sustained: 315 km/h (195 mph)
Lowest pressure 895 mbar (hPa); 26.43 inHg
(Estimated)
Fatalities 6,340 confirmed, 1,061 missing
Damage $2.86 billion (2013 USD)

Areas affected

Micronesia
Philippines
Southern China
Vietnam

Quoting PlazaRed:

That track on the projection is probably the worst case scenario for a landfall and storm track, as its taking the path over previously devastated areas into the direction of Manila.
I think we can predict of expect a lo of devastation if this path plays out.
Added to this is the fact that the storm passes over a large area of islands, leading to certain coastal problems with waves and river flooding.
The newest track forecast takes Hagupit right over Manila after passing over the most heavily populated areas of the country. I don't think that Manila was really considered to be a possibility until about 8 hours ago. The late recurve would do exactly what the forecast is now predicting. This is about as a worst case as we can get for that unfortunate country. All we can do now is hope for some significant weakening, but that will probably come at the expense of even greater rainfall. This is likely to turn into an international rescue and recovery operation before it's over.
Quoting yoboi:



Weather goes in cycles......
That was very insightful....
PAGASA has now raised the intensity of typhoon RUBY to 115 knots.

** WTPH21 RPMM 041800 ***
TC WARNING 06

TY {HAGUPIT} (1422) TIME 041800 UTC
00 11.4N 130.4E 927HPA 59M/S
P06HR WNW AT 03M/S
P+24 11.9N 127.5E
P+48 12.2N 125.3E
P+72 12.6N 121.9E

PAGASA=
Not many news available on Hagupit right now. Everyone holds their breath, waiting for new model runs, while the local residents are busy with preparing. So here some winter news from elsewhere:


Source: wetteronline with more pics in the gallery.

In higher parts of Germany as well as in Austria, Slovenia (which experienced another very serious ice event last winter) and Czech Republic the problems with extreme icing and "riming" (is this term right, lol?) persist, causing a lot of damage. For the plains (where I live) this just means: very grey and depressing weather, I haven't seen a single ray of sunshine for many days, huh.

Moreover European weather blogs are flooded with pics of Komsomolsk, Amur region in uttermost Eastern Russia, because of extreme snow drift due to a Blizzard. Here is one of them:


Source.

I found several videos of this blizzard event (not yet on those European blogs) which are very well done and hilarious to boot. Enjoy (dire news from the tropics may come in soon enough):

During the Russian blizzard (Dec 2)


Aftermath for daily life (cars have a bad time, walking is recommended); really nice video :-)


Cautious: loud music! Skilled kids have fun :-)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
941 AM PST THU DEC 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BUT A MORE
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
FOR MORE RAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

Definitely a different pattern from last year. It may not be an official El Nino, but with our coastal SSTs well above normal, we might deem this a West Coast Nino.

It'll be interesting to see if and how Hagupit interacts with the strengthening East Asia-Pacific jet since this will have consequences for us downstream.
Quoting 108. sar2401:

It looks like this last round was finally a typical Pacific storm, with the coastal mountains getting the highest totals and less, but still respectable, amounts in the valleys. I haven't seen the total out of southern California but the storms on radar looked like a similar pattern. Looks like more periods of rain next week after a mostly dry weekend. At least it was enough to wash all the last three years worth of grease off the freeways so you don't have to worry about hydroplaning cars as much. :-) I have no idea what "sonoma Colorado" is supposed to mean in the list. It's in Sonoma County, so maybe the person was thinking about a ski trip or something.

..5 day storm total rainfall as of 5pm Wednesday...


Location amount


Mining Ridge (big sur coast) 11.98 inches
Ben Lomond 10.12
Anderson Peak (big sur coast) 9.73
Mount Tamalpais 7.34
Venado (sonoma Colorado.) 7.04
Kentfield 5.78
Mount Diablo 5.17
Big Sur 4.97
San Rafael 4.94
San Francisco 4.33
Santa Rosa 4.32
Redwood City 4.14
Santa Cruz 3.91
Oakland 3.72
San Jose 3.67
Napa 3.09
Livermore 2.95
Concord 2.65
Monterey 1.32
Salinas 1.06


The postal abbreviation for Colorado is CO which is also used as an abbreviation for "county". Maybe someone's software helpfully read a "Co" that was left without the requisite abbreviation period as Colorado. Worth a chuckle, especially knowing how different Venado is from Colorado.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON RUBY
5:00 AM PhST December 5 2014
=============================
Typhoon "RUBY" has gained more strength and slightly slowed down as it continues to move west northwest towards eastern Visayas.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ruby (HAGUPIT) [927 hPa] located at 11.5N 130.0E or 500 km east of Borongan, eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #2
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides


Luzon Region
-------------
1. Sorsogon
3. Ticao Island
3. Masbate

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Samar
4. Biliran
5. Leyte
6. Southern Leyte
7. Northern Cebu
8. Cebu City
9. Bantayan Island
10. Camotes Island

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Surigao del Sur
2. Agusan del Norte
3. Surigao del Norte
4. Dinagat Island
5. Siargao Island

Signal Warning #1
These areas will have occasional rains with occasional gusty winds.


Luzon Region
-------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Albay
3. Camarines Norte
4 .Camarines Sur
5. Burias Island
6. Romblon

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Capiz
2. Iloilo
3. Negros Oriental
4. Negros Occidental
5. Rest of Cebu
6. Siquijor
7. Bohol

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Misamis Oriental
2. Agusan del Sur
3. Camiguin Island

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

"RUBY" and the Northeast Monsoon will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of northern Luzon, eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon, over the seaboards of Visayas and over the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Fisher folks and those using small seacraft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards. Moreover, those living near coastal areas are alerted against possible storm surges.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.


Keel of transPacific jet directly overhead and zonal. A vast difference from last year at the same time.
Pretty noticeably jog back towards the west.


Same level in 96 hours. Impressive zonal flow aimed at the West Coast with 500 mb winds above 100 mph in several spots.


Jet max at the core level across the Pacific predicted to reach 206 knots...that's 237 mph!

If Hagupit dumps any of its moisture into this jet, it will be riding an express train.


Sorry. Wrong graphic. Here's the correct one for the core level of the jet.
Possible Northeast Snowstorm Next Week
This model really turned since last night!!!




Quoting sar2401:
It looks like this last round was finally a typical Pacific storm, with the coastal mountains getting the highest totals and less, but still respectable, amounts in the valleys. I haven't seen the total out of southern California but the storms on radar looked like a similar pattern. ... I

..5 day storm total rainfall as of 5pm Wednesday...


Location amount

Mining Ridge (big sur coast) 11.98 inches
Ben Lomond 10.12
Anderson Peak (big sur coast) 9.73
Mount Tamalpais 7.34

.....
sar,

I'm curious about the source URL for this info?

I've been to most of these locations, so the rain amounts seem vivid and the totals useful. There will be green and verdant hills all around come February. This could shape up to be a spectacular wildflower year in the deserts. :)

I also use this tool, "Dream Flows", to see how much of the precip ends up in the rivers, and useful to refill the reservoirs. In particular, note the radical rise in the Middle Fork of the Feather River. Good news for Lake Oroville.
Quoting 114. hydrus:


Looks like the little Spanish boy finally wants to come out of hiding.
Quoting sar2401:
Do you have a link to the source of the your post? Is it AmericanWX.com or at easternuswx.com, or at some other site I don't follow?


it was on Facebook. Link
Quoting 126. TimSoCal:



Looks like the little Spanish boy finally wants to come out of hiding.


After such a long time of childbearing the baby should be very well nourished, to say the least. Maybe a cesarian is required for El Nino ;-)
TXPQ28 KNES 042141
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 04/2032Z

C. 11.6N

D. 129.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/7.0/W1.5/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2/ATMS/TMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...EYE HAS BEEN FILLING IN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHITE EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE GIVES AN EYE NUMBER OF 6.0 WITH A BLACK EYE
AND WHITE SURROUNDING RING YIELDING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF -1.0 FOR A
FINAL DT OF 5.0. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON WEAKENING COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO.
PT IS 6.0. 6HR AVERAGE DT OF 6.0 DOES NOT ALLOW FOR BREAKING A 6 HR
WEAKENING GREATER THAN 1.0 THUS THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/1700Z 11.3N 130.6E AMSR2
04/1717Z 11.2N 130.6E ATMS
04/1721Z 11.3N 130.5E TMI
04/1748Z 11.4N 130.6E AMSU


...LIDDICK


anyone watching the west storm moving east here
Hey everyone...

It's been awhile since I don't come to say hi y'all wu bloggers
Hopefully everyone's safe watching these crazy weather events happening in all parts of the world

The hurricane scorecard will be released soon announcing the winners this year.
Even I hit the jackpot.


Here is the link of the chart for y'all to see

find yourself! 112 people joined this year

Quoting barbamz:


After such a long time of childbearing the baby should be very well nourished, to say the least. Maybe a cesarian is required for El Nino ;-)

And all grown up....







Quoting 132. rayduray2013:


And all grown up....



Don't take it further :-) ! Or this blog will turn into a blog of recipes for weight losing, lol. I better delete the photo of the poor baby ...
Forecast: Increasing Danger for Philippines
Hagupit Forecast Path
PAGASA has issued public storm signals for 21 geographic areas, mainly in the eastern parts of the country, spanning from Luzon in the north to Mindanao in the south. For portions of the central Philippines, PAGASA says winds of 61 to 100 kph (38 to 62 mph) are possible within 24 hours.



Hagupit isn't that much of an eye candy any more. Hope it stays that way after finishing the refurbishment of its eyewall ...
See you tomorrow. Good night and best wishes for the Philippines!


Twitter: Jojo Pasion Malig @JojoMalig 57 Min. A closer look at PAGASA's #Hagupit forecast track and the areas in typhoon's direct path (via Project NOAH)

Current (saved) WU track:

this storm i am watch for the weekend and friday night.. Wintry Mix For Northern New England Friday Night Into Saturday Night

The Low pressure system that develops over the Midwest Friday will spread moisture well out ahead across the Northeast Friday night into Saturday. This will result in a wintry mess for Interior New England during that time frame.
storm two!!!

Winter Storm Possibility For The Northeast Early Next Week

Models are NOT in good agreement regarding the potential for a winter storm for the Northeast early next week. The features that will be responsible for this potential storm are located well out in the Pacific. It is the way in which the various model suites move these features and bring them together (or not) along the east coast of the U.S. that will determine whether or not we will have a Northeast snow storm in the Monday night through Tuesday time frame. The GFS moves the system off the Mid-Atlantic Coast where it weakens and continues east, whereas the ECMWF brings the system due north once it moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Our current forecast are leaning toward the ECMWF solution, which brings wintry weather to the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday. There is not a lot of cold air available for this system to tap in the Northeast so at this time it looks as though Interior New England will be the most likely area to see wintry weather.

This system is being considered an invest, something we have identified as a candidate for naming. Because of SO much uncertainty in the eventual outcome, we are only giving this about a 2 out of 10 chance to name. This is one of these situations that time wise might be named as early as Sunday.

Quoting barbamz:


Don't take it further :-) ! Or this blog will turn into a blog of recipes for weight losing, lol. I better delete the photo of the poor baby ...
The recipe for weight loss is..... ta da.... no recipe, at all  :)

Quoting hurricanes2018:
Forecast: Increasing Danger for Philippines

Yes, the Manila Folder is about to become a Tapioca Pudding.
The latest EPS weeklies are out. Verbatim, the run shows below-average to much below-average temperatures across the East during the 6-10 day period, with warmth returning shortly thereafter. It's a blowtorch across the North Plains, with temperature departures up to 30-40F above average. This warmth remains until just before Christmas, when the arctic hammer drops. December ends and January begins on an extremely cold note.
Saw this interesting website, thought you might guy's like it.

Which City Has The Most Unpredictable Weather?
Quoting 142. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This week's EPS weeklies are run. Verbatim, the run shows below-average to much below-average temperatures across the East during the 6-10 day period, with warmth returning shortly thereafter. It's a blowtorch across the North Plains, with temperature departures up to 30-40F above average. This warmth remains until just before Christmas, when the arctic hammer drops. December ends and January begins on an extremely cold note.


.
Quoting 142. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This week's EPS weeklies are run. Verbatim, the run shows below-average to much below-average temperatures across the East during the 6-10 day period, with warmth returning shortly thereafter. It's a blowtorch across the North Plains, with temperature departures up to 30-40F above average. This warmth remains until just before Christmas, when the arctic hammer drops. December ends and January begins on an extremely cold note.


That actually seems very believable to me.
Textbook EWRC nearing completion.

I just had a quick check out on the population of just Manila.
Got this off the Internet:-

"The sum of total population of provinces with a density above 700 people per square kilometre (more than double the national average) in a contiguous zone with Metro Manila is 25.5 million people as of the 2007 census."

There is probably a good chance that at least half of these people live in sub standard housing or shanty towns made from low grade materials and bits of wood, corrugated iron etc.
A bad combination to endure a hurricane if you are inside.
Here's a link to the close up wind map, showing winds at about the 100MPH at the moment, although these will only be projections and probably way on the low side.

Link
Skywarn Recognition Day starts tomorrow. NWS MLB has won first three years in a row..
Quoting 148. PlazaRed:

I just had a quick check out on the population of just Manila.
Got this off the Internet:-

"The sum of total population of provinces with a density above 700 people per square kilometre (more than double the national average) in a contiguous zone with Metro Manila is 25.5 million people as of the 2007 census."

There is probably a good chance that at least half of these people live in sub standard housing or shanty towns made from low grade materials and bits of wood, corrugated iron etc.
A bad combination to endure a hurricane if you are inside.


It's the 11th most populous metro area in the world as well.
Any storm chasers in the Philippines? I know there were a few of them in Tacloban last year.
Quoting Skyepony:
Skywarn Recognition Day starts tomorrow. NWS MLB has won first three years in a row..
That's really nice that Melbourne gives some recognition to all the hundreds of hours the Skywarn volunteers put in. Birmingham doesn't even mention it on their page, and they've never done anything for Skywarn Recognition Day. I do it to help my neighbors in this small town, but it would be nice to get a pat on the back occasionally.
Quoting 131. MaxWeather:

Hey everyone...

It's been awhile since I don't come to say hi y'all wu bloggers
Hopefully everyone's safe watching these crazy weather events happening in all parts of the world

The hurricane scorecard will be released soon announcing the winners this year.
Even I hit the jackpot.


Here is the link of the chart for y'all to see

find yourself! 112 people joined this year


I would've entered if I joined the blog earlier but my honest guess was 9/3/1 since the middle of may because at the time they thought there would be an El nino later that summer. Oh well, there's next season.
For those who want to see how sea level rise and the elements affects islands then you should read this article..

%u201CThe State of Maryland loses approximately 260 acres of tidal shoreline due to erosion each year, resulting in a loss of public and private property, historic and cultural sites, recreational beaches, productive farmland and forested areas.%u201D
Link
downgraded to the fourth category of a named typhoon again.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
9:00 AM JST December 5 2014
==================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (925 hPa) located at 11.7N 129.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 11.8N 127.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 11.8N 124.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Philippines (Visayas)
72 HRS: 12.4N 121.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Philippines (Luzon)
Link
Quoting 154. TimTheWxMan:



I would've entered if I joined the blog earlier but my honest guess was 9/3/1 since the middle of may because at the time they thought there would be an El nino later that summer. Oh well, there's next season.


9/3/1/ was my guess too. There is a Twitter link provided by Barbamz this morning.

A mild day. 54/73 Not much fog this morning and what little there was was gone by 8 a.m.
Here's a pic I took this morning as the sunrise happened behind Orion waiting for liftoff..


Quoting 153. sar2401:

That's really nice that Melbourne gives some recognition to all the hundreds of hours the Skywarn volunteers put in. Birmingham doesn't even mention it on their page, and they've never done anything for Skywarn Recognition Day. I do it to help my neighbors in this small town, but it would be nice to get a pat on the back occasionally.

They give tours, teach you about ham stuff & how to help out around there. It's always fun.
Quoting 153. sar2401:

That's really nice that Melbourne gives some recognition to all the hundreds of hours the Skywarn volunteers put in. Birmingham doesn't even mention it on their page, and they've never done anything for Skywarn Recognition Day. I do it to help my neighbors in this small town, but it would be nice to get a pat on the back occasionally.


I'm proud of you, Sar. :)
Quoting 107. hydrus:

Parts of that region suffered heavy damage from Rammasun in July of this year..Most areas have not recovered..



Formed July 9, 2014
Dissipated July 20, 2014
Highest winds 10-minute sustained: 165 km/h (105 mph)
1-minute sustained: 250 km/h (155 mph)
Lowest pressure 935 mbar (hPa); 27.61 inHg
Fatalities 195 total
Damage $7.13 billion (2014 USD)

Areas affected

Caroline Islands
Mariana Islands
Philippines
China
Hong Kong
Macau
Vietnam





The Philippines arguably have one of the most extreme weather prone climates in the world. My dad was in the air force in his earlier days and told me about how insanely stormy it is there and how often they had extreme torrential rain and destructive thunderstorms there, and that wasn't even including how often Typhoons make landfall.

Sad to see yet another violent system threatening areas that have been battered, people must be weary.
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Saw this interesting website, thought you might guy's like it.

Which City Has The Most Unpredictable Weather?
It figures. Birmingham is ranked seventh most unpredictable of cities that have some people in them. It won mainly because they keep predicting rain and we don't get any. They also have a continuing problem with over predicting tornadoes. They were number one in the country for false warnings last year. They also have a record of not warning when there actually is a tornado. We had one on November 23 that I thought was clearly visible on radar. It started out just south of Lakepoint State Park. This isn't just a state park with lots of trees and rabbits. They have a marina with lots of liveaboard houseboats, hotel, rental cabins, and a huge campground with about 400 spaces that usually fills up with snowbirds. Thankfully, the tornado went NE through an unpopulated area, crossed the lake, and continued into Georgia. We got a warning when the tornado was already in Georgia. If the tornado had turned NW, it would have plowed right through the middle of Lakepoint.

Geez......
Quoting Naga5000:


I'm proud of you, Sar. :)
Thanks, Naga. No matter what people say, I think you're a good guy. :-)
Quoting 163. sar2401:

Thanks, Naga. No matter what people say, I think you're a good guy. :-)


Ha! Thanks, this one made my wife ask what I was laughing about.
Quoting Skyepony:
Here's a pic I took this morning as the sunrise happened behind Orion waiting for liftoff..



They give tours, teach you about ham stuff & how to help out around there. It's always fun.
That's a nice picture. It has a really tropical feeling.

I've worked Melbourne's special event station on HF in previous years and probably will again this year. A lot of NWS stations have radios set up for the Skywarn contest but Melbourne really does the best job. Those are some really high high dollar antennas at the office. We have one that sort of flops around on the roof. My little home station is better equipped. You'd think, with the amount and frequency of severe weather we have in Alabama they'd be a little more with it, but they aren't. Dang....
Quoting sar2401:
Thanks, Naga. No matter what people say, I think you're a good guy. :-)
That's good. Most of the posts you respond to don't provoke much laughter. Well, they do, sort of, but not the good kind of laughter. :-)
Quoting PedleyCA:
Link

9/3/1/ was my guess too. There is a Twitter link provided by Barbamz this morning.

I wasn't even close. 11/4/1. I had high hopes in October and November, but then the tropics went to sleep.
Even the western Caribbean ghost storms started to take on more meaning then, but I couldn't wishcast anything up. :-)
Quoting 153. sar2401:

That's really nice that Melbourne gives some recognition to all the hundreds of hours the Skywarn volunteers put in. Birmingham doesn't even mention it on their page, and they've never done anything for Skywarn Recognition Day. I do it to help my neighbors in this small town, but it would be nice to get a pat on the back occasionally.


Good job Sar.
I don't know if I have ever seen 2 models so polar opposite of each other for a forecast 5 days out.

GFS has warmth in the east with zonal flow while the Euro has a coastal storm with cold air draining straight down into FL with 20 degree temps below average.

One of these model suits will have to give in over the 48 hours.

Either the GFS is forecsting a major bust or that model is going to be a hero for the only model forecasting a warm weather pattern next week across the East.
Quoting 162. sar2401:

It figures. Birmingham is ranked seventh most unpredictable of cities that have some people in them. It won mainly because they keep predicting rain and we don't get any. They also have a continuing problem with over predicting tornadoes. They were number one in the country for false warnings last year. They also have a record of not warning when there actually is a tornado. We had one on November 23 that I thought was clearly visible on radar. It started out just south of Lakepoint State Park. This isn't just a state park with lots of trees and rabbits. They have a marina with lots of liveaboard houseboats, hotel, rental cabins, and a huge campground with about 400 spaces that usually fills up with snowbirds. Thankfully, the tornado went NE through an unpopulated area, crossed the lake, and continued into Georgia. We got a warning when the tornado was already in Georgia. If the tornado had turned NW, it would have plowed right through the middle of Lakepoint.

Geez......


St. Louis is 6th on the list. On April 3rd this year, the day there were 2 tornado warnings for the city itself, they reported a confirmed tornado in St. Louis despite the storm being outflow dominant at that point. In other words, a false alarm. I feel like they tend to exaggerate severe weather because most of the time the severe threat isn't as bad as forecast due to early morning convection to where the air stabilizes ahead of the storms so they weaken dramatically before they get here.
Quoting barbamz:


Hagupit isn't that much of an eye candy any more. Hope it stays that way after finishing the refurbishment of its eyewall ...
See you tomorrow. Good night and best wishes for the Philippines!


Twitter: Jojo Pasion Malig @JojoMalig 57 Min. A closer look at PAGASA's #Hagupit forecast track and the areas in typhoon's direct path (via Project NOAH)

Current (saved) WU track:

I think PAGASA has the track way too far south. I hope they are doing a better job warning Manila. This is the latest forecast track from the JTWC, and think it will turn out to be correct. It has the storm driving right through the heart of the most populated areas of the Philippines, finally making a direct hit on Manila before exiting the area. It looks like it will be cat 1/cat 2 strength by the time it gets to the metro Manila area, still a major storm in terms of the effects. It's also going to be slowing down before it gets to Manila, and dropping a lot of rain. It's going to a tough next four days for the Philippines.

Quoting 161. Jedkins01:




The Philippines arguably have one of the most extreme weather prone climates in the world. My dad was in the air force in his earlier days and told me about how insanely stormy it is there and how often they had extreme torrential rain and destructive thunderstorms there, and that wasn't even including how often Typhoons make landfall.

Sad to see yet another violent system threatening areas that have been battered, people must be weary.
Indeed.. The geography too has its share of dangerous natural phenomenon..Quite a place...The roughest and stormiest for me were the Great Lakes , North Atlantic , And the Outer Banks....Absolutely crazy seas..The Great Lakes are more treacherous, The waves move so fast, and are so close together the ship never has time to right itself..Its rough for days at a time in the Atlantic , and you get sore muscles from hanging on to the rails and grabs for hours and days at a time...:)
Oh boy, this aint good. Lets hope it weakens or misses.



Anyways, how is everyone doing?
Quoting 143. JTDailyUpdate:

Saw this interesting website, thought you might guy's like it.

Which City Has The Most Unpredictable Weather?



Yeah but "highly variable" isn't necessarily the same as unpredictable. The plains aren't terrible to forecast.
Quoting 175. GeorgiaStormz:




Yeah but "highly variable" isn't necessarily the same as unpredictable. The plains aren't terrible to forecast.


My area is considered unpredictable though...
Quoting 170. StormTrackerScott:

I don't know if I have ever seen 2 models so polar opposite of each other for a forecast 5 days out.

GFS has warmth in the east with zonal flow while the Euro has a coastal storm with cold air draining straight down into FL with 20 degree temps below average.

One of these model suits will have to give in over the 48 hours.

Either the GFS is forecsting a major bust or that model is going to be a hero for the only model forecasting a warm weather pattern next week across the East.


Should we bet on it? I'm cashing in.

I personally hope the GFS is right though...
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


St. Louis is 6th on the list. On April 3rd this year, the day there were 2 tornado warnings for the city itself, they reported a confirmed tornado in St. Louis despite the storm being outflow dominant at that point. In other words, a false alarm. I feel like they tend to exaggerate severe weather because most of the time the severe threat isn't as bad as forecast due to early morning convection to where the air stabilizes ahead of the storms so they weaken dramatically before they get here.
It's kind of like that here, but we don't have those big continental storms bearing down on us like you have. Most of our storms come in two ways. The first is from an MCS that is really impressive as it blows up over MS and TN. For whatever reason, the storms tend to intensify even more as they hit the area from Tuscaloosa NE into Birmingham. There are areas in that corridor that I simply would not live in due the frequency of violent tornadoes. By the time they move SE into Montgomery and further SE over me and then into Florida, the storms seem to lose most of their intensity, and that's when we get lots of false alarm warnings.

The second type are purely local. They happen in the spring and early summer when we have very unstable air, high PWAT's, and some kind of boundary setup that isn't easy to see. It only becomes clear when the storms actually form on the boundary, and they then transition into tornadoes within about fifteen minutes, and die out in about half an hour. Those are by far the hardest to predict, and they contribute to our high missed to warned ratio. It's not easy being a forecaster down here.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Good job Sar.
Thanks, Tim, I appreciate it.
Quoting 178. sar2401:

It's kind of like that here, but we don't have those big continental storms bearing down on us like you have. Most of our storms come in two ways. The first is from an MCS that is really impressive as it blows up over MS and TN. For whatever reason, the storms tend to intensify even more as they hit the area from Tuscaloosa NE into Birmingham. There are areas in that corridor that I simply would not live in due the frequency of violent tornadoes. By the time they move SE into Montgomery and further SE over me and then into Florida, the storms seem to lose most of their intensity, and that's when we get lots of false alarm warnings.

The second type are purely local. They happen in the spring and early summer when we have very unstable air, high PWAT's, and some kind of boundary setup that isn't easy to see. It only becomes clear when the storms actually form on the boundary, and they then transition into tornadoes within about fifteen minutes, and die out in about half an hour. Those are by far the hardest to predict, and they contribute to our high missed to warned ratio. It's not easy being a forecaster down here.


Try predicting the weather in Wisconsin if you think a few pop up storms are hard to predict.

Our forecasts are wrong 90% of the time. We can get powerful squall lines that pop up without warning in the summer, and the behavior of an approaching winter storm once it gets to our area is unpredictable. And our temps too... those are difficult to predict all year around.

Quoting 170. StormTrackerScott:

I don't know if I have ever seen 2 models so polar opposite of each other for a forecast 5 days out.

GFS has warmth in the east with zonal flow while the Euro has a coastal storm with cold air draining straight down into FL with 20 degree temps below average.

One of these model suits will have to give in over the 48 hours.

Either the GFS is forecsting a major bust or that model is going to be a hero for the only model forecasting a warm weather pattern next week across the East.
Pattern is progressive regardless of the solution, whatever cold air comes down will not last long. The PNA trending downwards and NAO remaining positive, the models and their ensembles show above normal heights dominating the majority of the CONUS heading into mid December.
Quoting weatherbro:


it was on Facebook. Link
AH, no wonder, since I don't do Facebook. I tried to get some more information on whoever's behind that page and all it says is that he's a "professional forecaster". Most meteorologists say so in their bio. There are some really good non-mets out there too, but I like to know who people are that make forecasts. Do you know anything more about this person?
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Try predicting the weather in Wisconsin if you think a few pop up storms are hard to predict.

Our forecasts are wrong 90% of the time. We can get powerful squall lines that pop up without warning in the summer, and the behavior of an approaching winter storm once it gets to our area is unpredictable. And our temps too... those are difficult to predict all year around.
Yeah, growing up in Cleveland, I know what you mean. Get that big lake thrown in and really gets to be a problem with winter storms. I was surprised Cleveland didn't make the top 10 list. I'm not sure I agree with all the criteria they used, but it may be that Cleveland is predictably unpredictable, so a forecaster going with about half the worst case scenario may get it right most of the time.
Quoting Drakoen:

Pattern is progressive regardless of the solution, whatever cold air comes down will not last long. The PNA trending downwards and NAO remaining positive, the models and their ensembles show above normal heights dominating the majority of the CONUS heading into mid December.
The NAO is what made me really doubt the big cold wave forecast. It's already quite positive, and forecast to get even more positive by the middle of the month. As you know, there's a very strong correlation with a positive NAO and at least fairly tranquil weather conditions across the Eastern US. I wonder how much models use this sort of thing?
Quoting 183. sar2401:

Yeah, growing up in Cleveland, I know what you mean. Get that big lake thrown in and really gets to be a problem with winter storms. I was surprised Cleveland didn't make the top 10 list. I'm not sure I agree with all the criteria they used, but it may be that Cleveland is predictably unpredictable, so a forecaster going with about half the worst case scenario may get it right most of the time.


Well, I live in a place where I do not get lake effect snow. But how else would the lakes impact the storm system or weather if I live a ways away from them?

I live where the dot is if it helps you answer my questions
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
934 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2014

Long term [sunday through thursday]...
we will continue to occasionally get side-swiped by short waves
passing to our north. However, surface high pressure will maintain a
dry air mass at lower levels which will preclude any mentionable
rain chances through the period. It will however be cooler than
recent days, but no Arctic outbreaks are in the offing. Temperatures
will start out close to normal on Sunday. During the work week, we
will see temperatures more typical of mid to late January with
daytime highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Quoting 167. sar2401:

I wasn't even close. 11/4/1. I had high hopes in October and November, but then the tropics went to sleep.
Even the western Caribbean ghost storms started to take on more meaning then, but I couldn't wishcast anything up. :-)
Hey 11/4/1 was my exact guess as well. Hey at least 8+6+2=11+4+1 ;^) so technically.................

Hagupit has completed an EWRC and is in the process of clearing out a much larger eye. It (unfortunately) remains a very powerful, and well organized tropical cyclone.
Quoting 188. Ameister12:

Hagupit has completed an EWRC and is in the process of clearing out a much larger eye. It (unfortunately) remains a very powerful, and well organized tropical cyclone.



I noticed in the discussion for this storm mention of a "northeast surge", but I sure don't see it. If anything there looks to be a SOUTHeast surge. But again, not an expert looking at all the data.
Force Thirteen Typhoon Hagupit Discussion 6: Dec. 5 UTC 2:00




Quoting FunnelVortex:


Well, I live in a place where I do not get lake effect snow. But how else would the lakes impact the storm system or weather if I live a ways away from them?

I live where the dot is if it helps you answer my questions
Wausau, Marathon County, Wisconsin. Famous for insurance, as I recall.


Our Friday storm coming in nicely. Good fetch of moisture blossoming out as it heads in.
22W/STY/H/C4

Quoting FunnelVortex:


Well, I live in a place where I do not get lake effect snow. But how else would the lakes impact the storm system or weather if I live a ways away from them?

I live where the dot is if it helps you answer my questions
Well, it doesn't, which is why I said throwing a lake into the mix makes things even more unpredictable, as in Lake Erie and Cleveland. You're on the wrong side and too far inland to get much lake effect anything except maybe a slight moderation of the air mass as it approaches the lake. I suspect the weather in central Wisconsin is probably tough to forecast because you're at the tail end of continental air mass fronts and at the leading edge of polar air fronts. Those two mixing together, I imagine, probably causes some pretty good storms to blow up, but not necessarily on the frontal boundary. I know your area has had some not frequent but pretty severe tornadoes in the past. Ours tend to be both severe and frequent. It has been strangely quiet the past two years though. This one last month was the first in over two years, a long break for us.
WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH A MORE ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN FILLED IN, LEAVING A
SLIGHT DIMPLE OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 042301Z GMI AND
042242Z SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE (20-25
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION DUE TO THE DIMPLE
FEATURE AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. AS A RESULT OF THE
RECENT WEAKENING TREND, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
T6.0 WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT T7.0, AS SUCH, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY TO 125 KNOTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER WEAKENING

Good news, or at least, not so bad news for the Philippines.
Quoting BayFog:


Our Friday storm coming in nicely. Good fetch of moisture blossoming out as it heads in.
Looks like the setup for the ARkStorm



An ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1000 Storm) is a hypothetical but scientifically realistic "superstorm" scenario developed and published by the United States Geological Survey,



Could California be this lucky?
14 years of drought followed by incredible inundation? Stay tuned.

And in further news of the worst of all possible worlds, the Cascadia Subduction Zone is locked up. Oh, my.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That's a good start at least, although slightly misleading, since the average rainfall for this past week is so low that any significant rain is going to be 200+% of normal.
Quoting 193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

22W/STY/H/C4



New Eye already ......
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH A MORE ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN FILLED IN, LEAVING A
SLIGHT DIMPLE OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 042301Z GMI AND
042242Z SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE (20-25
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION DUE TO THE DIMPLE
FEATURE AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. AS A RESULT OF THE
RECENT WEAKENING TREND, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
T6.0 WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT T7.0, AS SUCH, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY TO 125 KNOTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER WEAKENING







Great news as the comment I made, # 92 I believe, I noted then, that the trend was down and Hopefully it will continue thru impact.

Some time things can work out against a Impactor in time..,,san Opal in 95'

Quoting 199. Caimito:


New Eye already ......


The Viz has improved greatly the last 3 Hours.




Quoting rayduray2013:

Looks like the setup for the ARkStorm



An ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1000 Storm) is a hypothetical but scientifically realistic "superstorm" scenario developed and published by the United States Geological Survey,



Could California be this lucky?
14 years of drought followed by incredible inundation? Stay tuned.

And in further news of the worst of all possible worlds, the Cascadia Subduction Zone is locked up. Oh, my.
I see nothing to indicate this is a setup for a historic storm. These atmospheric rivers occur almost every normal winter, but they don't happen in early to mid-December. January, maybe, and February, even more likely of a maybe, but still a maybe. Oregon, maybe December. I was involved in almost all the flood rescues from 1978 until 2004, and they all occurred on or near my birthday, which is February 18, so it makes it kind of easy to remember. :-) The repeat of 1861-1862 will happen again though, but the precursor event will be very heavy early season snows in the mountains. We haven't seen that this year. I do remember driving to LA down I-5 in 1986, just after we finally got a break in the rain. It was like driving down a 200 mile long levee, with the traffic lanes above water and nothing else, including the center divider. Just water as far as the eye could see. I did wonder about the ARkStorm concept then, but the rain finally quit for good right after that drive, thank goodness. One day in the future, it won't, but that future doesn't appear to be this year.
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 DEC 2014 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 11:50:09 N Lon : 129:11:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 934.1mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -23.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 135km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.0 degrees




Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1 km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TYPHOON RUBY
11:00 AM PhST December 5 2014
=============================
Typhoon "RUBY" has gained more strength and slightly slowed down as it continues to move west northwest towards eastern Visayas.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ruby (HAGUPIT) [927 hPa] located at 11.8N 129.4E or 435 km east Borongan, Eastern Samarr has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #2
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides



Luzon Region
-------------
1. Sorsogon
2. Ticao Island
3. Masbate

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Samar
4. Biliran
5. Leyte
6. Southern Leyte
7. Northern Cebu
8. Cebu City
9. Bantayan Island
10. Camotes Island

Signal Warning #1
These areas will have occasional rains with occasional gusty winds.


Luzon Region
-------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Albay
3. Camarines Norte
4. Camarines Sur
5. Burias Island
6. Romblon

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Capiz
2. Iloilo
3. Antique
4. Aklan
5 .Negros Oriental
6. Negros Occidental
7. Rest of Cebu
8. Siquijor
9. Bohol

Mindanao Region
-------------------
1. Surigao del Sur,
2. Agusan del Norte
3. Surigao del Norte
4. Dinagat Island
5. Siargao Island
6. Misamis Oriental
7. Agusan del Sur
8. Camiguin Island

Additional Information
======================
Expected landfall: Saturday evening over the Eastern Samar – Northern Samar area and it will be associated with strong winds, storm surge (4-5 meters) and heavy to intense rainfall.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

"RUBY" and the Northeast Monsoon will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of northern Luzon, eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon, seaboards of Visayas and over northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Fisher folks and those using small seacraft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

Expected Exit PAR: Wednesday morning (Dec. 9).

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
The subject from PAGASA stating it gained more strength is lying.. but still reported 115 knots at this bulletin.
Quoting 202. sar2401:

I see nothing to indicate this is a setup for a historic storm. These atmospheric rivers occur almost every normal winter, but they don't happen in early to mid-December. January, maybe, and February, even more likely of a maybe, but still a maybe. Oregon, maybe December. I was involved in almost all the flood rescues from 1978 until 2004, and they all occurred on or near my birthday, which is February 18, so it makes it kind of easy to remember. :-) The repeat of 1861-1862 will happen again though, but the precursor event will be very heavy early season snows in the mountains. We haven't seen that this year. I do remember driving to LA down I-5 in 1986, just after we finally got a break in the rain. It was like driving down a 200 mile long levee, with the traffic lanes above water and nothing else, including the center divider. Just water as far as the eye could see. I did wonder about the ARkStorm concept then, but the rain finally quit for good right after that drive, thank goodness. One day in the future, it won't, but that future doesn't appear to be this year.


I concur. This isn't the kind of pattern for that yet, although I will say that the SSTs are ripe to feed the right setup if it develops. I wonder about the flooding potential though given (1) there were virtually no major water control systems in 1861-62, and (2) the drought has created an enormous amount of spare flood control capacity in most if not all of the state's reservoirs.
Quoting 199. Caimito:


New Eye already ......
ya lets see if it regains the perfect well define eye as of 24 hrs ago I am not certain on that I believe it reached it greatest peak already and this now is the secondary peak still powerful all the same
but a slow steady winding down once the secondary peak is complete and collapses

Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds

Quoting BayFog:
WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH A MORE ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN FILLED IN, LEAVING A
SLIGHT DIMPLE OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 042301Z GMI AND
042242Z SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE (20-25
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION DUE TO THE DIMPLE
FEATURE AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. AS A RESULT OF THE
RECENT WEAKENING TREND, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
T6.0 WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT T7.0, AS SUCH, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY TO 125 KNOTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER WEAKENING

Good news, or at least, not so bad news for the Philippines.
It is indeed, at least for Samar and the area around Tacloban that was hit so badly by Haiyan. Not so good for the areas around Manila though, as the slowing and slow NW turn will put them right in the bulls eye of a weakened but still dangerous typhoon.


IR-based TC size

Yeah, let's not make ARkStorm predictions, please. It's bad enough the San Andreas is overdue.
AOI- there has been quite a bit of spin with the prolonged disturbance in the South Western Caribbean sea near Panama. It could be a very peculiar area of development if conditions were to become Favourable.

A Blessed Night to All!
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
The subject from PAGASA stating it gained more strength is lying.. but still reported 115 knots at this bulletin.
Why would they say such a thing? All of us following the storm know that statement is completely false. I expect this kind of thing from some nutcase on FB, but I'm really shocked to see this from a Philippine government agency.
Quoting NatureIsle:
AOI- there has been quite a bit of spin with the prolonged disturbance in the South Western Caribbean sea near Panama. It could be a very peculiar area of development if conditions were to become Favourable.

A Blessed Night to All!
Peculiar indeed, especially this year.
if things move along looks like wave after wave of systems for central southern western regions of coastal north America

I just found a remarkable website to confirm what I suspected about the coastal waters off California right now. Most of the buoys have been showing SE winds for an extended period of time now, in addition to the abnormally mild SSTs. still hovering around 60, which would be astonishing even in a normal summer, let alone late fall-early winter.

The url is www.cencoos.org/sections/conditions/Google_current s/. And sure enough, the current right now off California is from the southeast, not the normal northwest! In other words, we're getting a flow up the coast from Baja. I heard about such a current from an old meteorologist long ago, the "Davison Current" which he attributed to runoff, but since our rains have only just started, it's unlikely runoff has attained the magnitude to generate a current powerful enough to run against the California Current. I'm thinking we have a thermal gradient going, with the waters off Mexico which warmed so much this past summer "stretching out" now that the North Pacific is radiating off its own excess heat and becoming cooler and more dense.

Any other thoughts about this?



Managers Tap Friday Launch Attempt
Posted on December 4, 2014 at 1:28 pm by Steven Siceloff.
Leave a reply
2014-4692
Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Orion’s managers for NASA, Lockheed Martin and the United Launch Alliance said they will push on with planning to launch Orion on its flight test Friday morning at 7:05 a.m. EST. The launch window will be 2 hours, 39 minutes, the same time span as Thursday. “Our plan is to fly tomorrow,” said Mark Geyer, Orion program manager.

Fill-and-drain valves on the Delta IV Heavy will be tested throughout the day so the launch team can prevent a mechanical problem like one that came up Thursday. “We’re very confident we’re going to be able to exonerate the equipment,” said Dan Collins, chief operating officer of United Launch Alliance. The valves that failed to close properly late in the countdown allow liquid hydrogen to flow into the three core boosters of the first stage. Normal operation calls for the valves to stay open during the fueling and shut tight a few minutes before liftoff to seal the fuel tank.

Although Orion didn’t get off the ground today to begin its first uncrewed flight test, the officials said a great deal was learned about the systems during the countdown as the spacecraft went on internal battery power and saw other changes through the lead-up to launch and then through the three attempts at different points in the launch window. “The spacecraft worked extremely well,” said Mike Hawes, Lockheed Martin’s program manager for Orion. Lockheed Martin built Orion for NASA and is operating this mission. “The systems did just like the simulators told us they’d do.”

The weather for Friday is forecast to be a bit worse than Thursday, though still favorable. Meteorologists are calling for a 60 percent chance of acceptable conditions.



This entry was posted in Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Orion, Orion Flight Test on December 4, 2014 by Steven Si
Quoting BayFog:


I concur. This isn't the kind of pattern for that yet, although I will say that the SSTs are ripe to feed the right setup if it develops. I wonder about the flooding potential though given (1) there were virtually no major water control systems in 1861-62, and (2) the drought has created an enormous amount of spare flood control capacity in most if not all of the state's reservoirs.
It will never be the same as 1861-1862, no doubt about that. There are many flood control dams and diversions upstream of all the major rivers flowing into the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, and they can handle a lot more water than the same rivers could 150 years ago. If reservoirs were even near normal, that would create more touchy situation in terms of water release, bit it's not a problem this year since, as you say, there's lots of spare freeboard in all the reservoirs. The one area of concern to me has been the Sacramento River levees, all which are much longer and more extensive that the great floods back then. Even as the levees have grown, as well as the cities behind them, they haven't been well maintained, and some sections will fail in any large flood, as we saw in 1986. After floating around Linda for two days back then, the one thing I made sure of was to find out how close any house was to a levee before we bought it.
Quoting BayFog:
I just found a remarkable website to confirm what I suspected about the coastal waters off California right now. Most of the buoys have been showing SE winds for an extended period of time now, in addition to the abnormally mild SSTs. still hovering around 60, which would be astonishing even in a normal summer, let alone late fall-early winter.

The url is www.cencoos.org/sections/conditions/Google_current s/. And sure enough, the current right now off California is from the southeast, not the normal northwest! In other words, we're getting a flow up the coast from Baja. I heard about such a current from an old meteorologist long ago, the "Davison Current" which he attributed to runoff, but since our rains have only just started, it's unlikely runoff has attained the magnitude to generate a current powerful enough to run against the California Current. I'm thinking we have a thermal gradient going, with the waters off Mexico which warmed so much this past summer "stretching out" now that the North Pacific is radiating off its own excess heat and becoming cooler and more dense.

Any other thoughts about this?
You're right, this is a very abnormal pattern. I really have no idea either, but I suspect the California Current, which normally flows southward from BC to Baja and causes all the cold upwelling, this year has moved further offshore than normal. This has allowed the normally weaker Davidson Current to move more warmer water from Baja northward as the current was able to overcome the weaker near shore California Current. This all has something to do with this brewing El Nino, but I'm nowhere near smart enough to be able to understand it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if things move along looks like wave after wave of systems for central southern western regions of coastal north America

It's starting to connect back to pineapple land. Once it looks like this photo, taken in December, 2010, everywhere from California to Texas will know the drought is over and it's time to start flood watch.

Quoting 221. sar2401:

It will never be the same as 1861-1862, no doubt about that. There are many flood control dams and diversions upstream of all the major rivers flowing into the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, and they can handle a lot more water than the same rivers could 150 years ago. If reservoirs were even near normal, that would create more touchy situation in terms of water release, bit it's not a problem this year since, as you say, there's lots of spare freeboard in all the reservoirs. The one area of concern to me has been the Sacramento River levees, all which are much longer and more extensive that the great floods back then. Even as the levees have grown, as well as the cities behind them, they haven't been well maintained, and some sections will fail in any large flood, as we saw in 1986. After floating around Linda for two days back then, the one thing I made sure of was to find out how close any house was to a levee before we bought it.


If you're referring to the Delta levees, yeah. They should not have allowed development in any of those Delta islands, or at the very least, without raising the elevations well above sea level, let alone rehabilitating the levees, which would be enormously expensive in any case. It's a catastrophe that will happen, by quake or flood, sooner or later.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya lets see if it regains the perfect well define eye as of 24 hrs ago I am not certain on that I believe it reached it greatest peak already and this now is the secondary peak still powerful all the same
but a slow steady winding down once the secondary peak is complete and collapses

I don't think it ever gets back to cat 5, or cat 4 for that matter. The show is over in terms of rapid intensification, although getting to cat 3 isn't out of the question. One thing to remember is that western Pacific typhoons have a history of weakening quickly once they approach the high mountains of the Philippines. We can only hope that turns out to be the case with Hagupit.
Quoting 223. sar2401:

It's starting to connect back to pineapple land. Once it looks like this photo, taken in December, 2010, everywhere from California to Texas will know the drought is over and it's time to start flood watch.




The classic setup I recall is a strong Arctic outbreak through the Pacific Northwest meeting a strong transPacific jet, with a stationary front setting up between Hawaii and California, with waves moving along the stationary front. The front becomes the focus of the moisture plume and the Arctic air mass a wall enhancing a funneling effect and providing plenty of cold air to wring out the moisture. As you pointed out, this usually can only happen well into the rainy season when contrasts are maximized and the jet is strongest, sometimes joined by a subtropical jet.
Quoting BayFog:


If you're referring to the Delta levees, yeah. They should not have allowed development in any of those Delta islands, or at the very least, without raising the elevations well above sea level, let alone rehabilitating the levees, which would be enormously expensive in any case. It's a catastrophe that will happen, by quake or flood, sooner or later.
Mostly the Delta levees, although there are levees around Napa and San Jose that are in equally bad shape. Most of the levees were agricultural structures, meaning they were built to allow some water in, slowing down the flood currents, and then release the water gradually after the storm, thereby protecting farmlands from flood erosion. They were never built to be flood control levees that would always keep water out. That was the situation in Linda in 1986, when the agricultural levee, which was built equally strong on the "dry" side to contain river water in floods, still did its job, except now there were subdivisions instead of crop land going (and staying) underwater, even as the Sacramento River went down. It was a weird experience being in a boat and looking down at the main river channel from the wrong side of the levee. Why all the residential construction was ever allowed is beyond me, and hydrologists were predicting such a problem 50 years before it happened.
Quoting 227. sar2401:

Mostly the Delta levees, although there are levees around Napa and San Jose that are in equally bad shape. Most of the levees were agricultural structures, meaning they were built to allow some water in, slowing down the flood currents, and then release the water gradually after the storm, thereby protecting farmlands from flood erosion. They were never built to be flood control levees that would always keep water out. That was the situation in Linda in 1986, when the agricultural levee, which was built equally strong on the "dry" side to contain river water in floods, still did its job, except now there were subdivisions instead of crop land going (and staying) underwater, even as the Sacramento River went down. It was a weird experience being in a boat and looking down at the main river channel from the wrong side of the levee. Why all the residential construction was ever allowed is beyond me, and hydrologists were predicting such a problem 50 years before it happened.


In a word, corruption.
Quoting BayFog:


The classic setup I recall is a strong Arctic outbreak through the Pacific Northwest meeting a strong transPacific jet, with a stationary front setting up between Hawaii and California, with waves moving along the stationary front. The front becomes the focus of the moisture plume and the Arctic air mass a wall enhancing a funneling effect and providing plenty of cold air to wring out the moisture. As you pointed out, this usually can only happen well into the rainy season when contrasts are maximized and the jet is strongest, sometimes joined by a subtropical jet.
Yep, that's the normal pattern. What we haven't seen this year, at least so far, is the much colder than normal weather in the Pacific Northwest, with very heavy mountain snows, that almost always precedes a real Pineapple Express type of event. Even the "old timers", who had been there less than 15 years, recognized something really out of the ordinary was happening as far back as early November of 1861. There doesn't seem to be a repeat of that pattern, which would lead a really historic storm. It would be nice if California could get out a drought without flooding, but that almost never happens. The only real question is how bad it will be, and we won't know that until at least the end of February. Until then, it's time to pass the popcorn and watch the show. :-)
Quoting 213. TimSoCal:

Yeah, let's not make ARkStorm predictions, please. It's bad enough the San Andreas is overdue.


I can only imagine how much extra stress has built up on the SA Fault. I wouldn't want to be around it when it finally goes.
Quoting 225. sar2401:

I don't think it ever gets back to cat 5, or cat 4 for that matter. The show is over in terms of rapid intensification, although getting to cat 3 isn't out of the question. One thing to remember is that western Pacific typhoons have a history of weakening quickly once they approach the high mountains of the Philippines. We can only hope that turns out to be the case with Hagupit.


its a weaken low end C4 now heading towards a strong C3 for next 24 then weaken from there for the rest of its travels

still some nasty weather and flooding all the same
22W/STY/H/C3
Quoting opal92nwf:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
934 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2014

Long term [sunday through thursday]...
we will continue to occasionally get side-swiped by short waves
passing to our north. However, surface high pressure will maintain a
dry air mass at lower levels which will preclude any mentionable
rain chances through the period. It will however be cooler than
recent days, but no Arctic outbreaks are in the offing. Temperatures
will start out close to normal on Sunday. During the work week, we
will see temperatures more typical of mid to late January with
daytime highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.
I think that's a pretty good summary. We theoretically have a chance of rain tomorrow night into Saturday but I'm not buying it now. The forcing is going to be too far north for us to see anything out this shortwave. It will usher in some cooler air, and tomorrow will likely be the end of our exceptionally warm weather. The high was 82 today, and I was able to take Radar Dog for his walk at 8:00 tonight with no jacket. Pretty good for December 4. :-)
Quoting 234. sar2401:

I think that's a pretty good summary. We theoretically have a chance of rain tomorrow night into Saturday but I'm not buying it now. The forcing is going to be too far north for us to see anything out this shortwave. It will usher in some cooler air, and tomorrow will likely be the end of our exceptionally warm weather. The high was 82 today, and I was able to take Radar Dog for his walk at 8:00 tonight with no jacket. Pretty good for December 4. :-)


We don't have any arctic break outs planned for the coming week up here... Kinda Status Quo of lo 20s to mid 30s. above zero in Anchorage... At least we do have some snow on the ground now.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its a weaken low end C4 now heading towards a strong C3 for next 24 then weaken from there for the rest of its travels

still some nasty weather and flooding all the same
Looking pretty scary again, but not as scary as last night at this time. You can see the dry air really working on the east and west sides of the storm with all the outflow channels, so maybe it weakens a little faster...I hope. I wonder what the deal is with PAGASA? First they issue that strange update saying the storm is growing stronger when it's clearly not, and I see there are still no warnings of any kind for the Manila area. It's almost like they're married to the ECMWF, and they're sticking with it come hell pr high water.
Quoting #202 sar2401:
I see nothing to indicate this is a setup for a historic storm. These atmospheric rivers occur almost every normal winter, but they don't happen in early to mid-December. January, maybe, and February, even more likely of a maybe, but still a maybe. Oregon, maybe December. I was involved in almost all the flood rescues from 1978 until 2004, and they all occurred on or near my birthday, which is February 18, so it makes it kind of easy to remember. :-) The repeat of 1861-1862 will happen again though, but the precursor event will be very heavy early season snows in the mountains. We haven't seen that this year. I do remember driving to LA down I-5 in 1986, just after we finally got a break in the rain. It was like driving down a 200 mile long levee, with the traffic lanes above water and nothing else, including the center divider. Just water as far as the eye could see. I did wonder about the ARkStorm concept then, but the rain finally quit for good right after that drive, thank goodness. One day in the future, it won't, but that future doesn't appear to be this year.
sar,

I'd hoped when I threw in the Cascadia Subduction Zone bit that y'all would see I was engaged in a wee bit of hyperbole. Of course the smattering of rain Cali has gotten in the past week is not an ARkStorm event. But at least it is coming from that general direction.

I appreciate your mentioning the fact that our Nation Defense Interstate Highway System was actually constructed a bit above the floodplain in the lower Sam Joaquin Valley. I noticed very much the same thing with the I-80 as it crosses the lower Sacramento Valley at the Delta. Seems that stretch of highway was built as a viaduct and when I was avidly seeking rivers in flood for some exciting whitewater kayaking adventures, the highway was rarely but encouragingly crossing miles of flooded pastures   This would be the stretch from Vallejo to Vacaville.

But I digress.
Quoting 236. sar2401:

Looking pretty scary again, but not as scary as last night at this time. You can see the dry air really working on the east and west sides of the storm with all the outflow channels, so maybe it weakens a little faster...I hope. I wonder what the deal is with PAGASA? First they issue that strange update saying the storm is growing stronger when it's clearly not, and I see there are still no warnings of any kind for the Manila area. It's almost like they're married to the ECMWF, and they're sticking with it come hell pr high water.
they always say strange things its like they have there own standard forecast for forecasting there weather while everyone else uses the normal tropical standard for forecasting sometimes its like night and day when u compare what forecasts come out
Quoting Dakster:


We don't have any arctic break outs planned for the coming week up here... Kinda Status Quo of lo 20s to mid 30s. above zero in Anchorage... At least we do have some snow on the ground now.
Hey, Dak. It was a fabulous day down here. Warm with south winds, although the humidity was still fairly low. The low last night was only 62. Almost makes summer here worth it...Almost.

Quoting 184. sar2401:

The NAO is what made me really doubt the big cold wave forecast. It's already quite positive, and forecast to get even more positive by the middle of the month. As you know, there's a very strong correlation with a positive NAO and at least fairly tranquil weather conditions across the Eastern US. I wonder how much models use this sort of thing?
The models create the teleconnections.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they always say strange things its like they have there own standard forecast for forecasting there weather while everyone else uses the normal tropical standard for forecasting sometimes its like night and day when u compare what forecasts come out
Yeah, I've seen that too, although I don't remember seeing an outright lie like that update. They are clearly incompetent, but now it appears they are dishonest as well. For all our complaints, just imagine if we had to carefully read an NHC statement, looking for lies, before we believed anything. I don't know what the people in the Philippines think about this, but I'd be leading a body of men down to PAGASA headquarters with torches and a good strong rope...
Quoting 235. Dakster:



We don't have any arctic break outs planned for the coming week up here... Kinda Status Quo of lo 20s to mid 30s. above zero in Anchorage... At least we do have some snow on the ground now.
no snow here all gone temps high 30's during day low 20's at night for the next 5 days anyway

Quoting BayFog:
I just found a remarkable website to confirm what I suspected about the coastal waters off California right now. Most of the buoys have been showing SE winds for an extended period of time now, in addition to the abnormally mild SSTs. still hovering around 60, which would be astonishing even in a normal summer, let alone late fall-early winter.

The url is www.cencoos.org/sections/conditions/Google_current s/. And sure enough, the current right now off California is from the southeast, not the normal northwest! In other words, we're getting a flow up the coast from Baja. I heard about such a current from an old meteorologist long ago, the "Davison Current" which he attributed to runoff, but since our rains have only just started, it's unlikely runoff has attained the magnitude to generate a current powerful enough to run against the California Current. I'm thinking we have a thermal gradient going, with the waters off Mexico which warmed so much this past summer "stretching out" now that the North Pacific is radiating off its own excess heat and becoming cooler and more dense.

Any other thoughts about this?
Time to find some good squid recipes. Cause the Humboldt squid loves this hot water and divers!



Quoting Drakoen:

The models create the teleconnections.
Well, yeah, I know that, but I was wondering what weight they give to something like a strong positive signal for the NAO compared to other features. I've never been a model (he he), but it seems like there would be some kind of algorithm that looks at the NAO and then says to discount a cold air out break by so much depending on how positive the NAO signal was. Of course, I also have no idea what I'm talking about. :-)
Quoting 241. sar2401:

Yeah, I've seen that too, although I don't remember seeing an outright lie like that update. They are clearly incompetent, but now it appears they are dishonest as well. For all our complaints, just imagine if we had to carefully read an NHC statement, looking for lies, before we believed anything. I don't know what the people in the Philippines think about this, but I'd be leading a body of men down to PAGASA headquarters with torches and a good strong rope...
its like any job sar sometimes ya just have to work with what ya have and I bet that's the case they are likely just underfunded and don't have what they need to make more detailed forecasts
Quoting rayduray2013:

Time to find some good squid recipes. Cause the Humboldt squid loves this hot water and divers!



There's no such thing as a good squid. There are two types of seafood I've tried in every combination known to man - squid and abalone - that I still don't like, no matter how much the cook tells me it's great.

Yes, we can thank General Eisenhower and the autobahn for our freeways today. I don't know about I-80, since it was built in bits and pieces over 35 years, but I-5 through the San Joaquin Valley was built pretty much in one piece, and high water was definitely a factor in planning elevation for freeway lanes. I remember driving that stretch with my late wife when she asked me why the drop off from the traffic lanes to the center median was so steep. I told her she would see one day, and she did. It was a pretty eerie experience.

Quoting Dakster:


I can only imagine how much extra stress has built up on the SA Fault. I wouldn't want to be around it when it finally goes.
The 1906 slip/strike San Francisco Earthquake was rated a 7.8 Moment Magnitude (Mw). Norht of San Francisco, for a few dozen kilometers the ground slipped a maximum of 14 feet.

Compare to the 1700 Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake just north of San Andreas which was rated a ~9.0 Mw and incorporated a tsunami effect. Along the 1,000 Km fault, ground slipped an average of 66 feet.

Or the 1964 Alaska quake at 9.2 Mw.

The San Andreas Fault is a tiddler, compared to what is north of it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Slowly but surely, PAGASA joins the real world...

Quoting sar2401:
There's no such thing as a good squid. ...

... and she did. It was a pretty eerie experience.
Too bad you never got a chance to sample the calimari salads in the delis in Little Italy, San Francisco. They were "to die for" as the saying goes.

Not many Americans know how to prepare squid. There's your problem right there. :)

The eeriest Interstate I've traveled on was I-10 between Lake Charles and Houston. Miles and miles of concrete roadway and endless dismal swamp all around.
Quoting 242. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no snow here all gone temps high 30's during day low 20's at night for the next 5 days anyway


A friend in Alberta is going sledding this weekend and my neighbors are going out as well. Enough snow on the ground on the North and western side of the continent for that.

Scary part is people are ice fishing on the lakes already... I am like... OK... But like last week it wasn't frozen and temps are not THAT low to make me feel comfortable about that.
so much for further weakening..?! 2014DEC05 063200 6.8 908.1 +3.7 134.8 6.8 7.0 7.0

Raw back up to 7.0


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
15:00 PM JST December 5 2014
==================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (925 hPa) located at 11.9N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 11.9N 126.3E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 12.0N 123.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Philippines (Visayas)
72 HRS: 12.7N 121.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Philippines (Luzon)
Quoting 243. rayduray2013:


Time to find some good squid recipes. Cause the Humboldt squid loves this hot water and divers!






They are highly intelligent animals, but are often overlooked because they look very insect like. People assume intelligent life is synonymous with humanoid form. But Elephants, Dolphins, Squid and Octopus are great examples of highly intelligent animals with drastically different form from humans.

Quoting 251. sar2401:

Slowly but surely, PAGASA joins the real world...

Looking at the map and having seen the wind map for the area today, I would say that a lot of the storms travel over the islands will be in the night.
In light of the wind strength its also probable that there will be a lot of power problems and cuts caused by downed power lines and general damage from flooding.
Probably yet another worst case scenario similar to last years storm.

Link

Below is a projected link to 24 hours from now about dusk coming into night.
At guess, landfall could be about midnight.

Link
A very photogenic storm hit Sydney this afternoon.
This is one of the best of all the photo's I took.

Good morning. ECMWF still "thinks" that Hagupit will detour a tad WSW and hit southern parts of Eastern Samar; some hours later it shows the eye right over poor Tacloban on Saturday, 9 p.m. GMT (second map).




Click the maps to enlarge. Source.

Ruby, no longer 'super,' closes in on E. Visayas
Rappler, Published 11:23 AM, Dec 05, 2014, Updated 12:16 PM, Dec 05, 2014
Ruby (Hagupit) - which the JTWC no longer labels as a super typhoon but is still a dangerous storm - is still expected to make landfall in Samar island on Saturday evening, December 6, PAGASA says ...


Saved current visible loop as night sets in.



Saved current WU track.

Wave hight forecast. Click it to get a loop.
Quoting 259. barbamz:


Saved current WU track.

Wave hight forecast. Click it to get a loop.


That's a lot of islands about to be impacted by 6 m waves. Not to mention the rainfall and wind. After the last two years can only hope that they have someplace to go to ride this out. And then comes the aftermath of cleanup and trying to put lives, agriculture, economy and a social fabric back together again.
Latest tweet from Hagubit-Chaser

James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV · 50 Min. Vor 50 Minuten
Big comms black out for me on East coast of Samar, back on west coast now nearing Catbalogan #typhoon #Hagupit #rubyPH
Source.

Ehem ... another little medicane in the making??


Click the pic to enlarge. Source. Map shows the development of a symmetric warm core system in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

Current cyclonic development west of Corsica:

Typhoon Hagupit, a powerful tropical cyclone in the tropical western Pacific Ocean, is closing in on the Philippines and will make landfall there this weekend. Preparations are underway for potentially life-threatening winds, storm surge and flash floods in the Philippines, where the typhoon has been named Ruby.While Hagupit has lost its super-typhoon status, it is still a formidable storm with the potential to cause serious damage.

On Wednesday night U.S. East Coast time, the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated Hagupit's maximum sustained 1-minute wind speed at 180 mph, putting it in a tie with Super Typhoons Vongfong and Nuri in October as the most powerful typhoon of 2014.

As of 2 a.m. EST Friday, JTWC lowered its estimate of Hagupit's top winds to 145 mph, meaning it is no longer a "super" typhoon. However, it is still the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane.


the eye is back!
Those blobs of convection behind the UK front are falling as snow here to around 300 metres elevation. Warmer rain tomorrow before another front and colder air brings the chance of the first slushy snow of the winter to lowland Scotland Sunday into Monday. Which if it comes to pass would be already be better than last winter's miserable showing.

An extremely deep low (930s mb) is now forecast to dominate the Atlantic into next week. The worst of the conditions probably for Iceland.
Hagupit/Ruby: wobbling and obviously strengthening (cloud tops are cooling):



Heading straight due west in the last hours:
Quoting 266. barbamz:

Hagupit/Ruby: wobbling and obviously strengthening (cloud tops are cooling):



Heading straight due west in the last hours:



To me, this storm looks eerily similar to Iselle when she underwent RI. The storm has surprisingly little banding for a West Pacific Typhoon. Idk why, but I've got a funny feeling that this storm is going to hit at a far stronger intensity than what is being forecast to.
SECO"...

Orion now on Orbit 1,,,traveling 17,550 mph, or about 5 miles a second....





Orion flare trail was visible from Fort Myers. It would have been a lot better to have been at the Cape to see it up close.
Quoting 267. Stormlover16:



To me, this storm looks eerily similar to Iselle when she underwent RI. The storm has surprisingly little banding for a West Pacific Typhoon. Idk why, but I've got a funny feeling that this storm is going to hit at a far stronger intensity than what is being forecast to.



One big bomb.

Currently at 125kt and should stay this way for the next hours. Source.
Quoting 269. Sfloridacat5:

Orion flare trail was visible from Fort Myers. It would have been a lot better to have been at the Cape to see it up close.



Can't see anything around here from the rain and the clouds this morning.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Can't see anything around here from the rain and the clouds this morning.



We've had some light sprinkles around the area, but also large patches of clear sky. It would have been completely hit or miss to see it.

Right now low clouds have rolled in over my area and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few rain drops any minute.

Forecast is still calling for plenty of sun and temps in the low 80s today.


wow!!!
Quoting barbamz:



One big bomb.

Currently at 125kt and should stay this way for the next hours. Source.

It's probably around 140kt based on its satellite presentation. The eye is still too ragged and cool for anything higher than that right now.
Slightly north of due west in the last few frames?

Quoting 272. Sfloridacat5:



We've had some light sprinkles around the area, but also large patches of clear sky. It would have been completely hit or miss to see it.

Right now low clouds have rolled in over my area and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few rain drops any minute.

Forecast is still calling for plenty of sun and temps in the low 80s today.


Believe it or not the Euro still has a cold blast for us early next week while the GFS doesn't. It seems as there is one epic fight going on between 2 powerhouse global models.

We across eastern FL needs to watch the GFS because if this pans out their could be some flooding issues across E C FL next week as their is a chance that the GFS may just pan out.


Back up to the fifth category of a named typhoon

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
21:00 PM JST December 5 2014
==================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (915 hPa) located at 12.0N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 11.8N 126.2E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 11.9N 123.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Philippines (Visayas)
72 HRS: 12.6N 120.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Philippines (Luzon)
Latest bunch of Hagupit-chaser-tweets (looks really bad for the east coast of Samar!)

James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV · 13 Min. Vor 13 Minuten
Drove past many extremely low lying communities on E coast of Samar today. V high tide & waves were lapping at road, house #hagupit #RubyPH

James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV · 14 Min. Vor 14 Minuten
Will work #typhoon #Hagupit #RubyPH on WEST coast of Samar, better chance of daylight passage & less hazardous than east coast

James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV · 15 Min. Vor 15 Minuten
Latest JMA forecast for #typhoon #Hagupit #RubyPH 8pm Philippines time 5th Dec, forecast landfall Central Samar
22W/TY/H/C4
If you are interested to watch the GFS forecast for the next 10 days not only for Hagupit, finally hitting Vietnam, but also for the giant (!) storm forming over Iceland and another one developing in the northeast Pacific, go to this often recommended German website (showing gale force winds) and click: Animation.
TXPQ28 KNES 050916
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 05/0832Z

C. 11.9N

D. 128.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/AMSU/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED 1.15 DEGREES IN WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF
6.0. EYE ADJ OF .5 IS ADDED FOR WHITE RING AROUND THE OW FOR A DT
OF 6.5. THIS IS CLEAR CUT FOR EIR METHOD YET VISIBLE METHODOLOGY IS
ALSO CLEAR CUT AT EMBEDDED DISTANCE EQUAL TO 1 DEGREE FOR AND EYE NO
OF 7.0. NO BF IS ADDED FOR DT OF 7.0. MET IS 6.5 FOR WEAKENING TREND
FROM YESTERDAY. PT IS 6.5. AS SUCH FT IS 6.5 BASED ON EIR DT WHICH IS
A MORE OBJECTIVE MEASURE OF DETERMINING INTENSITY THAN VISIBLE METHOD.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

05/0308Z 11.8N 129.1E TMI
05/0458Z 11.8N 129.0E AMSU
05/0631Z 11.9N 128.9E SSMI
05/0748Z 11.9N 128.8E SSMIS


...GALLINA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 1422 HAGUPIT (1422)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Link



Pagasa little NW movement

TC WARNING 08
TY {HAGUPIT}(1422) TIME 050600 UTC
00 11.9N 129.0E 938HPA 54M/S
P06HR WNW AT 03M/S
P+24 12.2N 125.8E
P+48 12.7N 123.6E
P+72 13.5N 120.7E
PAGASA=


Link
Quoting 281. barbamz:

If you are interested to watch the GFS forecast for the next 10 days not only for Hagupit, finally hitting Vietnam, but also for the giant (!) storm forming over Iceland and another one developing in the northeast Pacific, go to this often recommended German website (showing gale force winds) and click: Animation.


Pretty awesome Barb, good morning to you.. or afternoon as it may be! ..the typhoon is miniscule compared to the other systems.. feels weird to say that... Lordy that thing that spins up in the north Atlantic is a BEAST!
WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC ANNULUS OF INTENSE
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 12-NM ROUND EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. A
050308Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL
AND FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON A 050125Z 25-KM ASCAT BULLS-EYE, THE 34-KNOT WIND
RADII AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE MORE
SYMMETRIC WIND PROFILE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT
125 KNOTS, JUST BELOW SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY, BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, WHICH
CORRESPONDS WELL WITH A 050502Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 128 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH IS UNDER MODERATE
(15 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 22W IS TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN
CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF
JAPAN. THE 05/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE WESTERN CELL OF
THE STR EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, EASTWARD INTO THE EAST
PHILIPPINE SEA. THERE IS A BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND JAPAN, HOWEVER, FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS ZONAL AND LACKS THE DYNAMICS TO INFLUENCE
TY 22W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. OVERALL, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, HOWEVER, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPREAD OF ONLY
100-NM AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
FAVORING A SLIGHT POLEWARD BIAS TO THE TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SYSTEM
SIZE AND POSITION OF THE BREAK IN THE STR. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL IT STARTS INTERACTING WITH LAND NEAR TAU 24
THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY WEAKENING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO
TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONVERGING WEST OF MANILA.
TY 22W WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COOLER, MORE STABLE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. OVERALL, DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

"If you are interested to watch the GFS forecast for the next 10 days not only for Hagupit, finally hitting Vietnam, but also for the giant (!) storm forming over Iceland and another one developing in the northeast Pacific"

I think my grandson will enjoy watching this animation. He is 4.5 y.o. and is fascinated by wind/water movement. I do appreciate your posts, very straight forward, tactful and always interesting. Be well.
Quoting 243. rayduray2013:


Time to find some good squid recipes. Cause the Humboldt squid loves this hot water and divers!




It has been known for centuries that large squid ( the Humboldt in particular ) are extremely dangerous. Aggressive and powerful , and cannibalistic by nature , and armed with a cat like claw on every suction cup. One fisherman who caught one on a shark rod brought it along side of his vessel , only to "Explode" with such force off the hull of his vessel to leave deep marks in the jelcoat and bottom paint.

Excerpt from WIKI

The USS Stein, a U.S. Navy vessel that has apparently been attacked by an unknown species of giant squid. In 1978, the "NOFOUL" rubber coating of her AN/SQS-26 SONAR dome was damaged by multiple cuts over 8 percent of the dome surface. Nearly all of the cuts contained remnants of sharp, curved claws found on the rims of suction cups of some squid tentacles. The claws were much larger than those of any squid that had been discovered at that time.
Back up to 130kt via the 15z JTWC update.
Hurricane 360 - Mayhem in Mississippi - Hurricane Katrina

This isn't the story of New Orleans. This is the story of Mississippi, where Katrina hit the hardest!


I stayed away from Katrina. I learned my lesson in Hurricane Ivan a year earlier.
at posts #284 (Marty) and #286 (Tom): Thank you - first of all it's me who loves to look at all those swirling and whirling weather websites (as compensation for our often to happen non-weather in Germany, lol), and it's nice to have an opportunity to share them with others and see what they may have in return! Greetings from another very grey German day with the light already fading to boot. (But anyway better than something like Hagupit at the doorsteps, for sure).

Bad environmental news from Israel btw:

Israel oil spill "worst in country's history"
EuroNews, By Joanna Gill | With REUTERS, 04/12 17:04 CET
The Eilat-Ashkelon crude oil pipeline ruptured overnight on Wednesday, spilling millions of litres of crude oil into rivers and streams and through the Evrona nature reserve. ...


Quoting 227. sar2401:

Mostly the Delta levees, although there are levees around Napa and San Jose that are in equally bad shape. Most of the levees were agricultural structures, meaning they were built to allow some water in, slowing down the flood currents, and then release the water gradually after the storm, thereby protecting farmlands from flood erosion. They were never built to be flood control levees that would always keep water out. That was the situation in Linda in 1986, when the agricultural levee, which was built equally strong on the "dry" side to contain river water in floods, still did its job, except now there were subdivisions instead of crop land going (and staying) underwater, even as the Sacramento River went down. It was a weird experience being in a boat and looking down at the main river channel from the wrong side of the levee. Why all the residential construction was ever allowed is beyond me, and hydrologists were predicting such a problem 50 years before it happened.
Because we choose it ignore even if we have been warned.
Quoting 277. StormTrackerScott:



Believe it or not the Euro still has a cold blast for us early next week while the GFS doesn't. It seems as there is one epic fight going on between 2 powerhouse global models.

We across eastern FL needs to watch the GFS because if this pans out their could be some flooding issues across E C FL next week as their is a chance that the GFS may just pan out.





Euro is likely to pan out because it's the best in medium-range, after all...

Eventually, this stubborn ridge over Eastern USA will break and a system of low pressures will come flooding Southeast USA for the winter. Euro weeklies is signalling the begin of a huge outbreak of ULLs digging into Southeast USA by the end of December.
Super Typhoon Hagupit

Super Typhoon Hagupit
Last Updated Dec 5, 2014 12 GMT
Location 12.0N 128.5E Movement WNW
Wind 150 MPH
Rapidscat of Hagupit




Last Night




From
Quoting 269. Sfloridacat5:

Orion flare trail was visible from Fort Myers. It would have been a lot better to have been at the Cape to see it up close.



I didn't go. Too many of us have a flu & with 40% chance of launch..though the wind wasn't as forecast going in. It had really looked like they had a shot if weather was okay at the opening of the window. It was raining in Melbourne. Couldn't even see it from the house. People there said it hit the cloud deck & was out of sight. I've seen that before with other launches. The vehicle goes up maybe 20 seconds and disappears in clouds, always a little disapointing. It can leave a really neat contrail shadow if the sun is right & near dawn, maybe it did..

The sound here was muffled from the rain & humidity, for a Delta 4 Heavy. It still rattled the windows.
Quoting 219. BayFog:

I just found a remarkable website to confirm what I suspected about the coastal waters off California right now. Most of the buoys have been showing SE winds for an extended period of time now, in addition to the abnormally mild SSTs. still hovering around 60, which would be astonishing even in a normal summer, let alone late fall-early winter.

The url is www.cencoos.org/sections/conditions/Google_current s/. And sure enough, the current right now off California is from the southeast, not the normal northwest! In other words, we're getting a flow up the coast from Baja. I heard about such a current from an old meteorologist long ago, the "Davison Current" which he attributed to runoff, but since our rains have only just started, it's unlikely runoff has attained the magnitude to generate a current powerful enough to run against the California Current. I'm thinking we have a thermal gradient going, with the waters off Mexico which warmed so much this past summer "stretching out" now that the North Pacific is radiating off its own excess heat and becoming cooler and more dense.

Any other thoughts about this?
Think about the EPAC hurricane year and you may figure it out. :)
Quoting 252. rayduray2013:


Too bad you never got a chance to sample the calimari salads in the delis in Little Italy, San Francisco. They were "to die for" as the saying goes.

Not many Americans know how to prepare squid. There's your problem right there. :)

The eeriest Interstate I've traveled on was I-10 between Lake Charles and Houston. Miles and miles of concrete roadway and endless dismal swamp all around.



And in the middle of all that... Beaumont! I agree, it could not get any eerier.
299. MAstu
Quoting 294. hurricanes2018:


Excellent news compared to yesterday
Quoting 289. CycloneOz:

Hurricane 360 - Mayhem in Mississippi - Hurricane Katrina

This isn't the story of New Orleans. This is the story of Mississippi, where Katrina hit the hardest!


I stayed away from Katrina. I learned my lesson in Hurricane Ivan a year earlier.


Some people chase. I run (or would if I could).

If it's a comin' I'm a-leavin'

But that said, at least we are warned about TC. Severe weather makes me feel like
a spot on the dart board and I just hope the darts go elsewhere.
Just a couple things related to previous discussion in these comments.

Re: The levees in Northern CA:
Can anyone provide a map of the levees around San Jose and Napa? I am able to find 6-year-old levee news in Napa Valley but not Napa, which I remember as being hilly. I can find no reference, nor do I remember a levee at San Jose. Please enlighten me.

Rice is a traditional crop in some areas NW and SW of Sacramento. For good reason.

Re: Earthquakes
What is above ground is more important than what is below.
...

Discriminate about (what you read here) - what gets posted in these comments. Easy for a commenter to be an armchair engineer and second-guess the why and where of human settlement. Also easy to paint with a broad brush and miss the details known as truth.
Fried squid is the only edible squid... Tasty even. Italian style. An old Portuguese fishing widow in Monterey served me some squid stew one time I could not eat, but I tried...

Good-bye for now. Have a nice day as they say in L.A.

Ps. The countryside in SW LA into SE TX is not eerie at all - along the train route anyway. See, this is opinion. Different animal from fact.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.