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Cat 2 Otto Slams Nicaragua, Costa Rica; Strongest Late-Season Hurricane on Record

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 6:12 PM GMT on November 24, 2016

Small but potent Hurricane Otto plowed into the Caribbean coast around 1 PM EST Thursday less than 20 miles north of the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica, making history in the process. As Otto approached the Central American coast, the storm’s eye was clearly visible on satellite--a compelling sight any time of year, but especially on the same day that people in the United States were celebrating Thanksgiving and putting thoughts of hurricane season out of their minds. With top sustained winds of 110 mph at the top of the Category 2 range as of 1 PM Thursday, Otto was in a three-way tie as the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded this late in the year (see Figure 3 below). Otto is also the latest hurricane to make landfall anywhere in the Atlantic basin in records going back to 1851. A Category 1 storm passed about 30 miles north of the Turks and Caicos Islands on November 28, 1887. In addition, Otto now holds the mark for the southernmost hurricane landfall on record for Central America. No hurricane or tropical storm has ever been recorded in Costa Rica, but it is possible Otto's center will pass over parts of northwestern Costa Rica while Otto is still a tropical storm or hurricane (see below).

Otto’s small size allowed it to vault to top-end Category 2 strength from Wednesday night to Thursday morning after it had weakened to tropical storm strength earlier on Wednesday. As Otto approached the coastline, its hurricane-force winds only extended out to 15 miles from its center and tropical-storm-force winds extended out to 70 miles. Because the more powerful winds are on the right-hand side of a Northern Hemisphere hurricane, this meant Nicaragua would bear the brunt of Otto’s winds, although parts of far northeast Costa Rica were experiencing much rougher conditions than they are accustomed to.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Hurricane Otto as it approached the coast of southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica at 1515Z (10:15 am EST) Thursday, November 24, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Two children are embraced by their father in Bluefields, Nicaragua, as Hurricane Otto approached on November 23, 2016. Image credit: INTI OCON/AFP/Getty Images.

Otto’s impact on people and structures was minimized by its landfall location, as the storm was moving across the sparsely populated area encompassed by the Indio Maiz Biological Reserve and the Punta Gorda Natural Reserve. There may be significant damage to the reserves themselves, though. The small town of San Juan de Nicaragua (formerly Greytown, population about 1300) may have experienced hurricane conditions as Otto’s eye passed just to the north of it. Later on Thursday, winds up to tropical-storm force may affect the more populated region around Nicaragua’s capital, Managua. There are no weather stations in Weather Underground’s PWS network within 50 miles of Otto’s landfall location, and the last Hurricane Hunter foray into Otto’s inner core was just after 11Z Thursday (6:00 am EST), so we will have to depend mainly on satellite estimates for Otto’s intensity at landfall.

Rainfall will be a significant threat with Otto from Thursday into Friday. Localized torrents of up to 15” - 20” are possible along Otto’s track across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. The outer fringes of Otto’s circulation may produce rains of 5” or more along higher elevations along the Caribbean coast of Honduras and the Pacific coast of western Panama and southern Costa Rica.


Figure 3. Tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes recorded between 1851 - 2016 on November 24 or later. A total of 50 storms have been observed this late in year; only three of these reached Category 2 strength prior to Otto. Otto is tied for strongest Atlantic hurricane ever observed this late in the year, along with a 1934 storm that had 110 mph winds at 7 am EST November 24, and an 1853 hurricane that also had 110 mph winds at 7 am EST November 24. Image credit: NOAA.

Otto may become the first storm to keep its name from Atlantic to Pacific
A ridge of high pressure to Otto’s north will keep the storm rolling westward on Thursday afternoon and evening across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica, which are far less mountainous than other parts of Central America. In fact, part of Otto’s northern circulation could pass over Lake Nicaragua, one of the top-ten biggest freshwater lakes in the Americas. With land influence at a relative minimum, Otto is projected by NHC to be a tropical storm when it enters the Pacific early Friday. If Otto does maintain its identity as a named storm, as expected, it will keep the name Otto in the Pacific. Should Otto dissipate but its remnants manage to redevelop in the Pacific, the new storm would take the name Virgil from the Eastern Pacific list.

More than a dozen “crossover” tropical cyclones have been recorded, most of them moving from Atlantic to Pacific rather than vice versa. The most recent was Hermine (2010), which formed as an East Pacific tropical depression before entering the western Gulf and striking the northeast coast of Mexico as a tropical storm. Otto would be the first crossover storm in modern records to keep its name in going from one basin to another, since NHC’s previous practice was to rename such systems. All of Otto’s predecessors in this realm--including Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (1996)--underwent a name change when moving from Atlantic to Pacific or vice versa.

We won’t need to worry about Otto once it enters the East Pacific, as conditions do not favor reintensification and the storm will be moving away from land areas.


Figure 4. Tracking map for Hurricane Otto as of 10 AM EST Thursday, November 24, 2016.

Otto’s ascension to hurricane status gives the Atlantic 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes for the year. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic for 2016 has now reached 133--the Atlantic’s highest ACE value since 2010. The long-term averages for the period 1971 - 2010 in the Atlantic were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 92, so the Atlantic hurricane season of 2016 is above average in all categories. If Otto proceeds into the East Pacific as a named storm, it will be that region’s 22nd tropical storm, which would put 2016 in a tie with 2014 for fifth place for the most number of named storms in the Eastern and Central Pacific.

A rare Thanksgiving Day storm
This is the second Thanksgiving Day in a row that’s kept NHC forecasters busy issuing storm advisories. In 2015, record-warm ocean waters helped Hurricane Sandra off the Pacific coast of Mexico become only the second Thanksgiving Day hurricane in modern records for the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific, and the first major hurricane. Sandra set the record for the latest major hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere, as the storm maintained at least Category 3 strength from 00 UTC November 26 through 00 UTC November 27 (previous record: an unnamed Atlantic hurricane in 1934 that held on to Category 3 status until 00 UTC November 24.) When Sandra peaked as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds at 1 am EST (06 UTC) Thanksgiving Day, November 26, it became the latest Category 4 storm ever observed in either the Eastern Pacific (previous record: Hurricane Kenneth on November 22, 2011) or the Atlantic (previous record: ”Wrong Way" Lenny on November 18, 1999.) The only other Thanksgiving Day hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere was Hurricane Karl of 1980, which spun harmlessly as a minimal Category 1 hurricane far out in the central North Atlantic on Thanksgiving Day that year.

Otto is the first named storm in the Atlantic known to make landfall on Thanksgiving, but several other weaker storms have had NHC forecasters issuing advisories on Thanksgiving Day. This includes 1988’s Tropical Storm Keith, which struck Florida as a tropical storm on Wednesday, November 23, and persisted as a strong tropical storm east of Florida until midday Thanksgiving Day (November 24). In 1998, minimal Tropical Storm Nicole weakened to a depression east of Bermuda early on Thanksgiving Day (November 26), with advisories discontinued at 10 am EST. Nicole did get a new lease on life several days later, becoming a hurricane on November 30 and persisting to become one of just five Atlantic hurricanes on record during the month of December. In the hyperactive Atlantic season of 2005, Tropical Storm Delta roamed the eastern Atlantic on Thanksgiving Day (November 24). And in 2011, a weakening Tropical Storm Keith well out to sea in the eastern Pacific prompted advisories on Thanksgiving Day (November 24). Prior to the establishment of NHC as we know it, an unnamed tropical storm dissipated on Thanksgiving Day 1953 (November 26) well east of Bermuda. Hawaii takes the cake for the worst U.S. hurricane-related impacts during Thanksgiving Week: Hurricane Iwa passed near Kauai on Tuesday, November 23, 1982, during the run-up to the “super” El Niño of 1982-83. Iwa caused one death and inflicted $250 million in damage in Kauai.

We hope all of our U.S. readers have a safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving. We’ll be back with an update on Otto on Friday.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for the update gents have a wunderful thanksgiving day
Truly has been an amazing season. Thanks Dr. Jeff & Bob.
I have a question. How do we keep track of ACE while a system is over Central America? Would the ACE be counted for the Atlantic until the center fully enters the Eastern Pacific?
Quoting 3. Bobbyweather:

I have a question. How do we keep track of ACE while a system is over Central America? Would the ACE be counted for the Atlantic until the center fully enters the Eastern Pacific?


Good question, that's my assumption; that they will stop counting it once the crossover is official.
Otto%u2019s ascension to hurricane status gives the Atlantic 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes for the year. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic for 2016 has now reached 133--the Atlantic%u2019s highest ACE value since 2010. The long-term averages for the period 1971 - 2010 in the Atlantic were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 92, so the Atlantic hurricane season of 2016 is above average in all categories. If Otto proceeds into the East Pacific as a named storm, it will be that region%u2019s 22nd tropical storm, which would put 2016 in a tie with 2014 for fifth place for the most number of named storms in the Eastern and Central Pacific

nop it will still be otto bob and jeff has the NHC is no longer chageing named storms after they cross over take a look back at Ulika from this year even no it cross in too the center PAC but when it crossed back over too the E PAC it stayed Ulika then taking the next named storm on the E PAC list wish would have been Tina so the same will happen with otto when it cross over it will still be otto and not the next named storm on the list wish would be Virgil if the NHC was still doing the cross over names wish they dont do any more so the E PAC will still have 21 named storms for the season not 22 named storms
16L /OVL/CYC
Quoting 5. thetwilightzone:

Otto%u2019s ascension to hurricane status gives the Atlantic 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes for the year. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic for 2016 has now reached 133--the Atlantic%u2019s highest ACE value since 2010. The long-term averages for the period 1971 - 2010 in the Atlantic were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 92, so the Atlantic hurricane season of 2016 is above average in all categories. If Otto proceeds into the East Pacific as a named storm, it will be that region%u2019s 22nd tropical storm, which would put 2016 in a tie with 2014 for fifth place for the most number of named storms in the Eastern and Central Pacific

nop it will still be otto bob and jeff has the NHC is no longer chageing named storms after they cross over take a look back at Ulika from this year even no it cross in too the center PAC but when it crossed back over too the E PAC it stayed Ulika then taking the next named storm on the E PAC list wish would have been Tina so the same will happen with otto when it cross over it will still be otto and not the next named storm on the list wish would be Virgil if the NHC was still doing the cross over names wish they dont do any more so the E PAC will still have 21 named storms for the season not 22 named storms


I'm pretty sure the question was concerning ACE points and not the name though Taz :-)
just sitting here now wundering what the dry air and sal guy who said 2016 would be a dud is sayin now
Quoting 8. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just sitting here now wundering what the dry air and sal guy who said 2016 would be a dud is sayin now


Lol, same. :)
Quoting 8. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just sitting here now wundering what the dry air and sal guy who said 2016 would be a dud is sayin now


Probably trying to wash all of the dust out of his eyes so he can't see to type. That or he ate so much under-cooked crow that he has been a semi-permanent resident of the lavatory.
Quoting 8. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just sitting here now wundering what the dry air and sal guy who said 2016 would be a dud is sayin now


I still, say this season is a bust. Sarcasm flag is flying⛈⛈⛈

Happy Thanksgiving to all!
🦃🦃🦃
I am glad too see the seasons end approach
been a busy one at times stressful
overall good tracking season and look forward
to doing it all over again next season
I'm here in my office experiencing a earthquake, in Managua
:/
Quoting 16. mavilesilva:

I'm here in my office experiencing a earthquake, in Managua
:/
what country
Quoting 17. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what country


nicaragua :o
Quoting 16. mavilesilva:

I'm here in my office experiencing a earthquake, in Managua
:/


big one? usgs wbesite shows nothing, yet.
Quoting 19. earthisanocean:



big one? usgs wbesite shows nothing, yet.
cant find anything yet either
Good News!

Robert Scott logbooks and Ernest Shackelton logbooks CONFIRM that Antarctic sea ice has not shrunk in 100 years!

These brave men and their crews are are remembered as heroic failures...but their due diligence in exploring Antarctica have given them a new moniker as some of the world's first successful climate scientists.

I am very thankful on this day that there is SOLID PROOF that Antarctica's climate is stable...and remains so!

Read about this historic revelation here!
hey bob or jeff what about hurricane beta in all the most the same area it was a cat 3 storm with 115 mph winds wont that make it the strongest late season hurricane or do you mean storms that happen in NOV?

Link
holy &$% 7.2 (initial measurement) off the pacific coast of nicaragua. capable of tsunami for sure. unbelievable.

Quoting 23. thetwilightzone:

hey bob or jeff what about hurricane beta in all the most the same area it was a cat 3 storm with 115 mph winds wont that make it the strongest late season hurricane or do you mean storms that happen in NOV?

Link

Think he means nov
075
WEPA40 PHEB 241849
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1849 UTC THU NOV 24 2016

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.2
* ORIGIN TIME 1844 UTC NOV 24 2016
* COORDINATES 11.9 NORTH 88.9 WEST
* DEPTH 33 KM / 20 MILES
* LOCATION OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.2 OCCURRED
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AT 1844 UTC ON THURSDAY
NOVEMBER 24 2016.

* BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS
TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 300 KM
OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST
-----------------------

* HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 300 KM OF THE EPICENTER ALONG THE COASTS OF

NICARAGUA... EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITH A POTENTIAL TSUNAMI THREAT. ACTUAL ARRIVAL
TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
-------------------------------------------------- ----------
CORINTO NICARAGUA 12.5N 87.2W 1937 11/24
PUERTO SANDINO NICARAGUA 12.2N 86.8W 1937 11/24
ACAJUTLA EL SALVADOR 13.6N 89.8W 1949 11/24
AMAPALA HONDURAS 13.2N 87.6W 2010 11/24


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$

Quoting 24. earthisanocean:

holy &$% 7.2 (initial measurement) off the pacific coast of nicaragua. 33 km deep. unbelievable.


Quoting 21. NutZilla:

Good News!

Robert Scott logbooks and Ernest Shackelton logbooks CONFIRM that Antarctic sea ice has not shrunk in 100 years!

These brave men and their crews are are remembered as heroic failures...but their due diligence in exploring Antarctica have given them a new moniker as some of the world's first successful climate scientists.

I am very thankful on this day that there is SOLID PROOF that Antarctica's climate is stable...and remains so!

Read about this historic revelation here!


i think we have all had enough with climate change and you no what for one week for once whats keep this blog climate change free
Message Time:
24 Nov 2016 18:49 UTC
Message Num:
1
Message Text:
Message Type:
Ptwc Tsunami Threat Message
Warning:
none
Watch:
none
ETAs / Obs:
none

Preliminary (PTWC)
Origin Time:
30 Nov -0001 00:00 UTC
Magnitude:
7.2 Mwp
(reviewed by PTWC)
Latitude:
11.9 N
Longitude:
88.9 W
544
WEHW42 PHEB 241850
TIBHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-242050 -

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
850 AM HST THU NOV 24 2016

TO - EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0844 AM HST 24 NOV 2016
COORDINATES - 11.9 NORTH 88.9 WEST
LOCATION - OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
MAGNITUDE - 7.2 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

$$

poor nicaragua hurricane on one saide earth quake on the other
Post season reanalysis with almost certainly upgrade Outstanding Otto to a category 3! Truly has been an amazing season!
earthquake was deep 30 km local tidal action is possible within 5 minutes to an hour
Quoting 28. thetwilightzone:



i think we have all had enough with climate change and you no what for one week for once whats keep this blog climate change free


Please let me know what your "climate change clock" is set to where you have determined that discussions about climate change can begin again on this weather / climate change blog.

Then, I'll repost this SPECTACULAR SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY! It's exciting!

Thank you in advance for that future time stamp I have requested.
Quoting 31. thetwilightzone:

poor nicaragua hurricane on one saide earth quake on the other

Hopefully no aftershocks.
In my opinion, post season reanalysis with almost certainly upgrade Outstanding Otto to a category 3! Truly has been an amazing season!
Have you noticed the last 3 years (2014-2015-2016) have we seen 69 named storms in the Northeast Pacific? If we stop to think, since 2012, when Northeastern Pacific seasons have started to become very active consecutively there have been 106 named storms, 64 hurricanes and 32 major hurricanes.

The average of 2012-2016 so far is:
21,2 Named Storms
12,8 Hurricanes
5,2 Major Hurricanes

Can be a period of active season like 1980's?


Magnitude
7.2 Mi
Location
uncertainty
11.945°N 88.911°W
± 0.0 km
Depth
uncertainty
33.0 km
± 0.0
Origin Time
2016-11-24 18:43:53.000 UTC
Number of Stations
166

In my opinion, post season reanalysis with almost certainly upgrade Outstanding Otto to a category 3! Truly has been an amazing season!
- Severe weather, floods ongoing in parts of the W Mediterranean, more rain expected where they need it the least : NW Italy and Corsica Island, FR. Lots of damage there in some locations. Red alert was issued by Meteo-France for N Corsica in the afternoon. See also Severe Weather Europe (link).
- Northern Italy on high alert, battered by heavy rainstorms - The Local, 18z.
- Flood warnings in northern Italy as rain batters region- Reuters, 18z.
- Youtube Video 1 from Garessio, Italy - link.
- Twitter Video 2 from Corsica Island - link.
Current satellite animation : Link
- While in Israel, on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea, drought takes its toll :
Wildfires : Live updates - Times of Israel.

Haifa, Israel - Nov 24. Image credit : NASA Aqua/Modis.
Sorry for the triple post.
Anyone hear from Xylonn?
TIBAK1

Tsunami Information Statement Number 1
NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK
1051 AM PST Thu Nov 24 2016

...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR ALASKA, BRITISH
COLUMBIA, WASHINGTON, OREGON AND CALIFORNIA...

EVALUATION
----------
* There is no tsunami danger for the areas listed above.

* Based on earthquake information and historic tsunami records
the earthquake was not sufficient to generate a tsunami.

* An earthquake has occurred with parameters listed below.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* The following parameters are based on a rapid preliminary
assessment and changes may occur.

* Magnitude 7.2
* Origin Time 0944 AKST Nov 24 2016
1044 PST Nov 24 2016
1844 UTC Nov 24 2016
* Coordinates 11.9 North 88.9 West
* Depth 21 miles
* Location off the coast of Central America


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE
--------------------------------------
* Refer to the internet site ntwc.arh.noaa.gov for
additional information.

* Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon,
Washington, British Columbia and Alaska should refer to the
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages at ptwc.weather.gov.

* This will be the only U.S. National Tsunami Warning center
message for this event unless additional information becomes
available.

$$

a sunny day here in NE Fla

Quoting 45. aquak9:

a sunny day here in NE Fla


colorful flowers
Quoting 42. Pipejazz:

Anyone hear from Xylonn?

not today
thanks keep, they are zinnias and love the heat; probably won't make it thru winter, tho.

besides I figured I better post some flowers as a peace offering
50. vis0
my thoughts on Otto (these thoughts include my crazy theories not just physics) Link auto scrolls to specific comment once pg THERE loads.
Zilly blog LINK
Hoping those that can help please go to official sites that provide aid to such situations and carefully read what form of help is needed.
So if Otto keeps his name in the Pacific, is it not included in the storm count for the Pacific records or?
willow in my backyard seems confused..some of the old leaves arent even off yet! relevant to the article i just read about plants knowing when to send their buds out based on nighttime temps (once theyre warm enough). interesting theory, and something pretty weird seems to be going on here.

Quoting 16. mavilesilva:

I'm here in my office experiencing a earthquake, in Managua
:/

Quoting 23. thetwilightzone:

hey bob or jeff what about hurricane beta in all the most the same area it was a cat 3 storm with 115 mph winds wont that make it the strongest late season hurricane or do you mean storms that happen in NOV?

Link


When you're looking at records such as strongest/warmest/etc. so late in a year, one can use any number of thresholds. In this case, Otto is the latest 110-mph landfall on record, but you could look at higher categories/wind speeds and evaluate those as well (e.g., latest Cat 4, latest Cat 5).

Quoting 55. nrtiwlnvragn:





We've just revised the first paragraph of today's blog post accordingly. There was an erroneous storm track in NOAA's hurricane history database for 1887 that threw us for a loop!
Quoting 22. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Link
Quoting 34. NutZilla:



Please let me know what your "climate change clock" is set to where you have determined that discussions about climate change can begin again on this weather / climate change blog.

Then, I'll repost this SPECTACULAR SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY! It's exciting!

Thank you in advance for that future time stamp I have requested.
Another one on my special list, is Otto a cat 3, or 2?
Quoting 35. Uragani:


Hopefully no aftershocks.


no victims nor damage until now...
waiting for the tsunami to not occur
Quoting 59. mavilesilva:



no victims nor damage until now...
waiting for the tsunami to not occur

Good that it happened in daylight; I don't think tsunami will do a lot of damage since now at least people there know about it.
latest update from warning center

616
WEPA40 PHEB 241931
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1929 UTC THU NOV 24 2016

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UPDATED IN THIS MESSAGE.

NOTE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE DOWNGRADED.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.0
* ORIGIN TIME 1844 UTC NOV 24 2016
* COORDINATES 11.9 NORTH 88.9 WEST
* DEPTH 33 KM / 20 MILES
* LOCATION OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.0 OCCURRED
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AT 1844 UTC ON THURSDAY
NOVEMBER 24 2016.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE
FORECAST FOR SOME COASTS.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 0.3 TO 1 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME COASTS OF

EL SALVADOR... AND NICARAGUA.


* TSUNAMI WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.3 METERS ABOVE
THE TIDE LEVEL FOR THE COASTS OF OTHER AREAS.

* ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
AND AT LOCATIONS WITH FRINGING OR BARRIER REEFS WILL LIKELY
BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

* FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT A FORECAST HAS NOT
YET BEEN COMPUTED. THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDED IF
NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITHIN THREATENED REGIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
-------------------------------------------------- ----------
CORINTO NICARAGUA 12.5N 87.2W 1935 11/24
ACAJUTLA EL SALVADOR 13.6N 89.8W 1937 11/24
PUERTO SANDINO NICARAGUA 12.2N 86.8W 1940 11/24
SAN JUAN DL SUR NICARAGUA 11.2N 85.9W 1951 11/24


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$
16L/OVL/CYC
MAGNITUDE 7.0 EARTHQUAKE OFF CENTRAL AMERICA

5 mins ago
Civil defense in El Salvador says no increase in wave heights observed so far
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2017 UTC THU NOV 24 2016

...PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UNCHANGED IN THIS MESSAGE.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.0
* ORIGIN TIME 1844 UTC NOV 24 2016
* COORDINATES 11.9 NORTH 88.9 WEST
* DEPTH 33 KM / 20 MILES
* LOCATION OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.0 OCCURRED
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AT 1844 UTC ON THURSDAY
NOVEMBER 24 2016.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THE TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS
EARTHQUAKE HAS NOW PASSED.


Link
SAN SALVADOR (Reuters) - A strong earthquake off the Pacific Coast of Central America shook the region on Thursday and triggered a tsunami warning, U.S. monitoring agencies said, just as a hurricane barreled into the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Emergency services in El Salvador said on Twitter there were no immediate reports of damage at a national level, but urged those living along the country's Pacific coast to withdraw up to 1 kilometer (0.62 mile) away from the shore.
The 7.0 magnitude quake, initially reported as a magnitude 7.2, was very shallow at 10.3 kilometers (6.4 miles) below the seabed, which would have amplified its effect. Its epicenter was located some 149 km (93 miles) south-southwest of Puerto Triunfo in El Salvador, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center warned that tsunami waves of up to 1 meter (3 feet) could hit the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and El Salvador after the quake.
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega declared a state of emergency due to the quake and Hurricane Otto, which landed on the country's southeastern coast earlier on Thursday, his spokeswoman said.
"We were serving lunch to the lawmakers and the earthquake started and we felt that it was very strong," said Jacqueline Najarro, a 38-year-old food seller at the Congress in San Salvador. "We were scared."
Earlier on Thursday, the Category 2 Hurricane Otto hit land near the southeastern coast of Nicaragua, where thousands had already been evacuated away from vulnerable coastal areas and into shelters.
(Additional reporting by Sofia Menchu in Guatemala, Gustavo Palencia in Honduras and Ivan Castro in Nicaragua; Writing by Gabriel Stargardter; Editing by Sandra Maler and Simon Gardner)



Link
TSUNAMI WARNING ALL CLEAR REPEAT ALL CLEAR

WARNING END
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

16L/OVL/CYC


ahh it did clear out an eye
Nicaragua experiencing an earthquake and a hurricane at the same time wow
I want to stress that Otto is 110 if it can increase by 1 mph it is a cat 3, 1 mph is not enough to make a huge difference the damage is the same whether or not we actually call it a cat 3 or not
Quoting 67. Icybubba:


ahh it did clear out an eye


is there any way to verify if this storm surpassed the cat 3 threshold or it kept cat 2 until landfall?
Quoting 67. Icybubba:


ahh it did clear out an eye
yep it may even have been a MH C3 briefly as well sure a post season review will be done on this one
it was close in my experience as tracking it looked like a cat 3 briefly but then eye deformed as it came in on approach to land and has since fill in as expected after landfall
Costa Rica had been directly affected by 3 hurricanes in the past decades :Martha in 1969, Joan (Juana) in 1988 and Cesar in 1996.
The first one made landfall between Panama and Costa Rica border, while other two between Nicaragua and Costa Rica border. Cesar caused widespread devastation in the central-south of the country.
So, Otto would not be unprecedented because its landfall was, like in the 3 previous cases, some miles away from Costa Rican territory into Nicaragua.
Good afternoon

It's 87, feeling like 93, and a partly cloudy kind of day on the island at the moment. So far we've actually made it with NO RAIN today!

Getting ready for our annual Thanksgiving Day celebrations at our local bar. The bar does the fried turkeys and hams, and the clients bring the dishes. If you bring a dish, it costs you 5.00 and if not, 20.00 at the door, and all proceeds are donated to the Family Resource Center. A good time had by all, good friends, good food and a very worthy agency being helped with the proceeds.

Wishing each and every one of you a wonderful day...and thoughts and prayers to those in the areas of the world that need it most.....

Lindy
The rivers Sarapiqui, Guatuso and Zapote are at risk of overflow and flood the communities of Puerto Viejo, San Rafael and Upala.
Strong winds and mudslides are also possible in some mountainous communities near Monteverde, Tilaran, Arenal and La Fortuna.
16L/OVL/CYC
WEAKENING FLAG ON
Quoting 69. Icybubba:

I want to stress that Otto is 110 if it can increase by 1 mph it is a cat 3, 1 mph is not enough to make a huge difference the damage is the same whether or not we actually call it a cat 3 or not


The NHC does not do 1 mph increases, only 5 mph increases.
I am willing to bet that Nicaragua is not the only country to ever experience a hurricane making landfall while experiencing an earthquake.

Wanna bet it's happened in the USA in the past?
Quoting 21. NutZilla:

Good News!

Robert Scott logbooks and Ernest Shackelton logbooks CONFIRM that Antarctic sea ice has not shrunk in 100 years!

These brave men and their crews are are remembered as heroic failures...but their due diligence in exploring Antarctica have given them a new moniker as some of the world's first successful climate scientists.

I am very thankful on this day that there is SOLID PROOF that Antarctica's climate is stable...and remains so!

Read about this historic revelation here!


Not in the slightest. It means the sea ice extent has remained rather consistent (this year that isn't the case, but that could just be an anomaly). That in no way implies that its climate is stable.

Land ice and ice volume/ice mass has been precipitously declining for decades, and those are the real indicators of continental conditions over Antarctica. Sea ice fluctuates with salinity and other conditions. You can have just as much sea ice coverage with higher temperatures and lower salinity as you can with higher salinity and lower temperatures.

Unlike the arctic, the sea ice amount really isn't a good indicator of climate conditions in the antarctic.
You'd be correct. A strong typhoon struck Tokyo Bay during the 1923 Great Kantō earthquake.

Quoting 78. NutZilla:

I am willing to bet that Nicaragua is not the only country to ever experience a hurricane making landfall while experiencing an earthquake.

Wanna bet it's happened in the USA in the past?
Quoting 76. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

16L/OVL/CYC
WEAKENING FLAG ON



Otto put on a pretty impressive show for so late in the year.
Xyrus2000 don't even engage nutso he is just looking for someone anyone to start problems with and you fell for it
Quoting 83. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Xyrus2000 don't even engage nutso he is just looking for someone anyone to start problems with and you fell for it


Oh...not true.
Quoting 84. NutZilla:



Oh...not true.
o yes it is you been trying all day
stop it stop it now
and you should know better oz don't push it its thanksgiving you can always pick another day for foolishness pls
Quoting 78. NutZilla:

I am willing to bet that Nicaragua is not the only country to ever experience a hurricane making landfall while experiencing an earthquake.

Wanna bet it's happened in the USA in the past?

Not an earthquake but once in 1991 Mt Pinatubo was erupting and typhoon Yunya hit (Phillipines) 300 died due to yunya
It ought to be forming an eye. Over the lake.
Quoting 89. Uragani:

It ought to be forming an eye. Over the lake.
that would be somem but I highly doubt it almost rapid weakening now
Otto may not be finished yet, looks like clear sailing for Otto as he exits off of Central America. The hostile shear is to the far west. Although there is a front coming in bringing in high shear which should kill him off after few days or so.


DISTURB WEATHER ACROSS ENTIRE CENTRAL CARB BASIN
Quoting 84. NutZilla:



.
so have you done another entire season of sat animations yet that's good I always liked that its interesting to watch whole season in 15 mins
Quoting 94. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so have you done another entire season of sat animations yet that's good I always liked that its interesting to watch whole season in 15 mins
Yeah the one with the Alan Parsons Project music was great
We'll have to see what the 2017 season has in store and if we have either left the active phase or are still in it.
Quoting 83. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Xyrus2000 don't even engage nutso he is just looking for someone anyone to start problems with and you fell for it
Good debate. Glad you are letting it play out.
16L
WEAKENING FLAG ON
RAPID DISP FLAG FLAG
whooops sorry, wrong blog for THAT post- removed it!
Quoting 94. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

so have you done another entire season of sat animations yet that's good I always liked that its interesting to watch whole season in 15 mins


If Otto doesn't wrap up before November 28th...I may not have an official track to post.

The final animation will be uploaded to YouTube on November 29th if I have access to the official track. Otherwise, it will be released within a few hours of it being available.

YouTube is very strict when it comes to copyright music. So this year, I have used "meditation music," which is copyright free. I am also releasing a "graphics free" version of the animation this year.

The predictions of the NWS, Colorado State, and The Weather Channel are also displayed at the end of this year's animation. They were all very close...but there's one stand-out among them.

You have three guesses! :)
Quoting 89. Uragani:

It ought to be forming an eye. Over the lake.
The lake has 2 volcanoes in it... How about a hurricane, earthquake and a volcano eruption ?? :)
Quoting 102. Abacosurf:

The lake has 2 volcanoes in it... How about a hurricane, earthquake and a volcano eruption ?? :)

if that happens, Nicaragua or Earth are revved by an Infinite Improbability Drive
Quoting 102. Abacosurf:

The lake has 2 volcanoes in it... How about a hurricane, earthquake and a volcano eruption ?? :)


Phils 1991, Mt Pinatubo. Typhoon Yunya massively accentuated the local effects of the eruption. Mother Nature truly found her mojo on that occasion.
Jet stream goes wavy, extreme weather follows. Seems like it never stops these days, almost the same setup as yesterday, but with the main frontal activity more to the southeast tonight.
* Torrential rains cause widespread flooding in northern Italy (Euronews on Youtube - video link).
1h30 ago - Severe Weather Europe (link) : "A very active line of thunderstorms is heading for #Sicily right now, currently less than 50 km from the coast. (...) Expect embeded rotating updrafts within the squall line. Expect intense rainfall with these storms with threat for flash flooding, as well as locally large hail and severe winds. Strong 0-1 km shear and helicity enhance tornado threat." Eumetsat/airmass - current picture/animation (link).
Estofex (link) forecasts a weaker convective threat tomorrow.
In the Alps, lots of snow at higher elevations, avalanches reported, but I haven't heard of significant damage from these. Corsica, previously under red alert has been downgraded to orange watch tonight by Meteo-France. The damage is already done there anyway.
Up to 500mm of rain recorded* in some places in Corsica Island since yesterday (Tweet, image link).
*Edit : These are radar-based estimates actually.
Quoting 102. Abacosurf:

The lake has 2 volcanoes in it... How about a hurricane, earthquake and a volcano eruption ?? :)
that would be something peeps down there will be like this is it the sign
Quoting 101. NutZilla:




thanks looking forward too it and thanks for all the hard work putting it together should be a interesting animation

the weather channel
Quoting 102. Abacosurf:

The lake has 2 volcanoes in it... How about a hurricane, earthquake and a volcano eruption ?? :)

Don't jinx it! :)
Quoting 21. NutZilla:

Good News!

Robert Scott logbooks and Ernest Shackelton logbooks CONFIRM that Antarctic sea ice has not shrunk in 100 years!

These brave men and their crews are are remembered as heroic failures...but their due diligence in exploring Antarctica have given them a new moniker as some of the world's first successful climate scientists.

I am very thankful on this day that there is SOLID PROOF that Antarctica's climate is stable...and remains so!

Read about this historic revelation here!
thats good news
110. SLU
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

We'll have to see what the 2017 season has in store and if we have either left the active phase or are still in it.


I think 2016 showed that the Atlantic has some life in it after all even though we saw many MDR storms struggle and dry air kill several systems. Had it not been for that, we could have had another 2010.
SAB has Otto in the East Pacific now


20161124 | 2345 | E-PAC | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 11.3 | 85.0 | 994 | 55 | 16L | OTTO | 3 | PS


Link
113. elioe
Now that there is Thanksgiving in America (we don't commemorate any such thing here), it isn't even normal to use the word "thanks" here, I wish to give thanks to all the people here.

Argh, I don't know how embedding works on this blog.


Link

The most beautiful thanks

I'm so very grateful for you about so much
And I don't know how I can tell it
I want to find the words that get my feelings
being mirrored into your heart

You are the only one on this Earth
by your side, I can feel the warmth
This common path of us two, let it always continue
Without you I'm unhappy

Because of other people, you have stayed awake and been sad
That's why I sing only to you
You are everything that I've dreamt of
You are my treasure, you are the most precious one

You brought luck into our home
Your spell brought the magic of love
Now, my most beautiful thanks can play
I wish to wish good luck in this way

There is many apologies that should be
stated by me, to you, again
However, you forget all the bad things,
you sacrifice yourself again, always.

You do it for the sake of our happiness
Because of an eternal love
You deserve all the most beautiful thanks
Please, receive this rose I have for you



And this is the only Finnish song I remember of, that contains the word "thanks" ("kiitos")
Quoting 110. SLU:



I think 2016 showed that the Atlantic has some life in it after all even though we saw many MDR storms struggle and dry air kill several systems. Had it not been for that, we could have had another 2010.
July was a dissapointment. If we had got at least 1 storm then every month would had been active.
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

We'll have to see what the 2017 season has in store and if we have either left the active phase or are still in it.
Agreed. Hope everyone is Having a Great Thanksgiving!
Quoting 107. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thanks looking forward too it and thanks for all the hard work putting it together should be a interesting animation

the weather channel


Nope...TWC was close...but there was one that was one off in each category of named storms, hurricanes, and majors. It was our very own National Weather Service. (But they give a range...which I think is a bit unfair.)

Yes...it is very hard work. Just collecting the images is a hassle. You'd think that NOAA would let you ftp blocks of images, but they do not. Instead, they force you to gather each image separately at this website.

This year, I started my collection on May 29th. To date, I have collected 8,815 individual images.

But that's just the beginning. My animation is graphics rich with counters and storm information.

Otto pissed me off. I thought I was going to get to coast to the finish line, but I've had to spend half of THIS DAY working on the graphics package for this storm.

And Otto is holding together well, which means I might be a day or two late in releasing my video. That's a decision point I get to encounter next week.

I've been making these animations for years, but none of them have gone viral.

These projects will wind up like everything else I've done...good stuff...but not quite good enough for fame and glory. :)
117. elioe
Quoting 116. NutZilla:



Well, I found your animations many years before I found this blog. "Virality", most of people don't ever achieve it. But at least your work hasn't gone completely in vain :)
Meanwhile in the Philippines/South China Sea :
"Marce" intensifies into a storm, aims for Panay
The Philippine Star - updated an hour ago.

2120z, Nov 24. Image source : CIRA/RAMMB, Himawari-8 (link).
Tropical Storm Kenneth. Not Keith.

Otherwise, great blog.
120. beell


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CST THU NOV 24 2016

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR DAY 4 (SUNDAY) AND DAY 5 (MONDAY)...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. BY LATE DAY 5 (12Z TUESDAY). AFTER DAY 5...THE ECMWF/GFS DIVERGE IN THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 7 (WEDNESDAY) AND 8 (THURSDAY) EACH MODEL SUGGESTS ZONAL FLOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FROM AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FORMS IN THE WESTERN STATES.

...DAY 4 (SUNDAY)...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE WESTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY LARGE CLOSED CYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS /40-60-KT/ DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSIONS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD LIMIT GREATER MOISTENING TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE...ATTENDANT TO THE EJECTING FOUR CORNERS TROUGH...SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

...DAY 5 (MONDAY)...
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE SUFFICIENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...EACH MODEL SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING...VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE WILL MAINTAIN A 15-PERCENT SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITY FOR EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...WITH SOME EAST-WEST EXPANSION OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA BASED ON TRENDS IN LATEST MODELS.

..PETERS.. 11/24/2016

Lead shortwave on Sunday should assist in good moisture return ahead of a trailing piece of mid-level energy that will dig a bit deeper to the south with a continuation of moisture return. Should be a bit more exciting than last Tuesday's bust-which was quashed by capping.
Quoting 120. beell:



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CST THU NOV 24 2016

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR DAY 4 (SUNDAY) AND DAY 5 (MONDAY)...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. BY LATE DAY 5 (12Z TUESDAY). AFTER DAY 5...THE ECMWF/GFS DIVERGE IN THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 7 (WEDNESDAY) AND 8 (THURSDAY) EACH MODEL SUGGESTS ZONAL FLOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FROM AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FORMS IN THE WESTERN STATES.

...DAY 4 (SUNDAY)...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE WESTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY LARGE CLOSED CYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS /40-60-KT/ DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSIONS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD LIMIT GREATER MOISTENING TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE...ATTENDANT TO THE EJECTING FOUR CORNERS TROUGH...SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

...DAY 5 (MONDAY)...
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE SUFFICIENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...EACH MODEL SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING...VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE WILL MAINTAIN A 15-PERCENT SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITY FOR EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...WITH SOME EAST-WEST EXPANSION OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA BASED ON TRENDS IN LATEST MODELS.

..PETERS.. 11/24/2016

Lead shortwave on Sunday should assist in good moisture return ahead of a trailing piece of mid-level energy that will dig a bit deeper to the south with a continuation of moisture return. Should be a bit more exciting than last Tuesday's bust-which was quashed by capping.


Hoping we get something here in the Baton Rouge area, even if it's only a squall line. I can always pretend my desire is humanitarian by saying we need the rain, because we actually do. We're in a drought. :P
122. beell
Quoting 121. KoritheMan:



Hoping we get something here in the Baton Rouge area, even if it's only a squall line. I can always pretend my desire is humanitarian by saying we need the rain, because we actually do. We're in a drought. :P


We're about 10" below normal for the September through November period-Droughtish here as well.

Most of the heavier rains will likely focus farther to the northeast of us-tracking close to the exiting shortwave.
:(
Quoting 122. beell:



We're about 10" below normal for the September through November period-Droughtish here as well.

Most of the heavier rains will likely focus farther to the northeast of us-tracking close to the exiting shortwave.
:(


inb4 the dry conditions persist into next summer, and steer every tropical cyclone away from the Gulf Coast. Remember 2011? :P
Just want to stop by and wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!
Quoting 114. allancalderini:

July was a dissapointment. If we had got at least 1 storm then every month would had been active.

Same thing with september it was october that "rescued" the season
Quoting 124. Adam2001:

Just want to stop by and wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!


You too, dude.
Quoting 119. KoritheMan:

Tropical Storm Kenneth. Not Keith.

Otherwise, great blog.

Think it's this Keith from 1988 not 1987. I was in this one. Nothing like a Tropical Storm to make Thanksgiving memorable.. It did spawn a tornado that hit some trailers near Clermont & a freighter got disabled in the gulf. Yucatan was still recovering from Gilbert's 170mph winds.



129. beell
Quoting 123. KoritheMan:


inb4 the dry conditions persist into next summer, and steer every tropical cyclone away from the Gulf Coast. Remember 2011? :P


I vaguely remember 2011 as being a bit dry.



Gotta give TS Lee a mention. Most of the eastern half of Texas on the dry side of the system with Lee's dry continental northerlies driving out the last little bit of moisture from the brush and timber.

...Due to the ongoing exceptional drought conditions in most of Texas and the high winds brought to the state by Tropical Storm Lee, a series of wildfires flared up over Labor Day weekend and continued into the following week...
wiki

From the beell archives-Sept 3rd, 2011:




Texas Wildfires-September 7, 2011
Image Credit: Texas Forest Service
So Otto does get counted twice.....


The ATCF identifier will change from AL162016 to EP222016
at 0900 UTC.

Link
Probably still gonna have Otto sticking around for about 4 or 5 days.

2016 Storms
All
Active
Year

Atlantic

East Pacific
16L.OTTO

Central Pacific

West Pacific
29W.TOKAGE

Indian Ocean
133. elioe
It seems, that Otto did not go away from the forecast track north enough to bring real trouble to Managua. And it seems, that neither did it go south enough to bring a deluge to the peninsula in NW Costa Rica. So, I guess, that all the commentators here are okay. :)

Now it's almost 6 a.m. here, so time to go to sleep. See you in the afternoon, to track the first Pacific TC to have a name from the Atlantic name list!
16L RENUM 22E

22E/TS/XX/CX

Quoting 128. Skyepony:


Think it's this Kieth from 1988 not 1987. I was in this one. Nothing like a Tropical Storm to make Thanksgiving memorable.. It did spawn a tornado that hit some trailers near Clermont & a freighter got disabled in the gulf. Yucatan was still recovering from Gilbert's 170mph winds.






Drove from JU to Naples directly through this storm. I was really surprised with some of the wind gusts and torrential downpours. It was a brutal drive. Thanks for jogging my memory on that one!!
Otto has emerged into the East Pacific with its inner core intact (see radar image below) and just below hurricane threshold. Its contribution to the Atlantic seasonal ACE total has ended, and its contribution to the East Pacific seasonal ACE total will start at the next full advisory (9z). I expect the storm to be upgraded to a major hurricane in post-season analysis. An impressive storm to end the season--if this is the last storm.

well a stranger decides to visit good to see ya TA
FREE OTTO

Link
Quoting 138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well a stranger decides to visit good to see ya TA

Haha. Yeah, there hasn't been much in the way of interesting weather these past few weeks so I haven't really stopped in until Otto. How've you been?
good otto been interesting to track and its not done yet it seems
and we still got the season review coming up in 5 days
then after that some winter/severe stuff
Quoting 141. hurricaneeye:




There are tv reports showing very strong winds in northwest costa rica. It appears many trees are down, hundreds of people without power as we speak. At least four people are missing.
ya its not over for some yet
Quoting 141. hurricaneeye:




There are tv reports showing very strong winds in northwest costa rica. It appears many trees are down, hundreds of people without power as we speak. At least four people are missing.
Quoting 143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya its not over for some yet


I meant northwest, sorry
It's amazing how the season has ended. Unless a storm pops up we had a Cat 5 Cat 4 and a Cat 2/3. It's amazing considering how slow it was during September! Made for a very interesting season.
Quoting 145. hurricaneeye:



I meant northwest, sorry
I removed the incorrect post
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM MARCE
11:00 AM PhST November 25 2016
==============================

"MARCE" has maintained its strength and is now off the western coast of northern Antique

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Marce [TOKAGE] (997 hPa) located at 11.3N, 122.0E or 90 km West Southwest of Roxas City, Capiz has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustsiness up to 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #2
-----------------------------
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon region
---------------
Romblon
Calamian Group of Islands
Southern Occidental Mindoro
Southern Oriental Mindoro

Visayas region
-----------------
Iloilo
Capiz
Aklan
Northern Antique

Signal Warning #1
-----------------------------
Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
Light damage to medium to low risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

Luzon region
---------------
Northern Palawan including Cuyo Island
Rest of Oriental Mindoro
Rest of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
Masbate including Burias and Ticao Island

Visayas region
-------------------
Negros Occidental
Rest of Antique
Guimaras

Additional Information
----------------------------------------
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents of areas under TCWS #2

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today.
"NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next complete advisory at 300 AM CST will be issued as an
eastern North Pacific Public Advisory under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2
and WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC."

Welp it happened
Quoting 149. Icybubba:

"NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next complete advisory at 300 AM CST will be issued as an
eastern North Pacific Public Advisory under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2
and WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC."

Welp it happened


it's suppose to get a new tropical cyclone number too.
Quoting 150. HadesGodWyvern:



it's suppose to get a new tropical cyclone number too.

Keeping the Otto name right? Because Virgil sounds stupid
Quoting 151. Icybubba:


Keeping the Otto name right? Because Virgil sounds stupid


ya it'll still be Otto.
So Otto had a version of the Matthew blob and became or at least almost became a Cat 3, these blob features need to be studied
Quoting 83. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Xyrus2000 don't even engage nutso he is just looking for someone anyone to start problems with and you fell for it


Sorry. Flagged and moved on.

Still, it's rather surprising how fast these guys can take a piece of research and twist it to say something it clearly doesn't say. I guess they just rely on people not bothering to read the actual research. :P
I have to report that unfortunetely we have lost lives in Costa Rica today. This is a very sad moment for us. The government was stubborn in only forcing evacuations in the caribbean side, not in the north Pacific. There were many voluntary shelters and public transportation was suspended since early in the morning. Most business was closed, but it was not enough
Have no idea what's going on here:

such a cute little spiral North of/"over" Egypt
Good News!

My 2016 Hurricane Season Animation will be released ON TIME! Because Otto "exited the basin," the official track of the storm has been released! On November 29 at approximately 11:30 PM EST (11/30/2016 - 4:30 UTC)...the animation should be available on YouTube.

good/morning...damage.reports?
last night 8pm est got a text from friends south of tamarindo costa rica they said the clouds were low but no rain or wind yet.
Quoting 156. AlphaBetaGamma01:

Have no idea what's going on here:



What the actual heck
Quoting 154. Xyrus2000:



Sorry. Flagged and moved on.

Still, it's rather surprising how fast these guys can take a piece of research and twist it to say something it clearly doesn't say. I guess they just rely on people not bothering to read the actual research. :P



I found a much better analyisis at Carbon Brief,
The sea ice records are predominantly for the southern hemisphere summer – from November to March – because that’s when the explorers tended to sail to the Antarctic, taking advantage of the seasonal lows in sea ice extent.

From these records, the researchers created a dataset of 191 sea ice edge positions, providing “an almost circumpolar picture of the Antarctic summer sea ice edge” for 1897-1917, the paper says.

Comparing the dataset with modern satellite records, the researchers find that Antarctic summer sea ice extent was “surprisingly comparable” to what it is today.

That said, the logbook records also suggest that Antarctic summer sea ice has declined by up to 14% between the Heroic Age and the present day.

And the results do show some dramatic changes, the researchers note, particularly in the Weddell Sea. The ice edge positions recorded by expeditions in the early 1900s reveal that sea ice extended much further north than any time in the last 25 years, says Day.



Map of expedition routes taken by ships used in the study. Source: Edinburgh & Day (2016)

Link to original paper.
Now forecaster should monitor the track of Tokage as it moving through Philippines and heading to Vietnam, but it should not cause any harm when it weakening to a remnant low on Wednesday or Thursday. Still, it is strengthening slowly and Tokage are causing a lot of troubles in Philippines. Rough Black Friday, folks!
The small town of upala was devastaded in costa rica. The live early morning news are horrible. At least 6 people dead, some others are missing. Upala was directly hit by cat 1 winds. Many locals did not pay attention to the multiple warnings received even two days before landfall. A river made its way to the town and took people and animals along.
Quoting 156. AlphaBetaGamma01:

Have no idea what's going on here:




Someone forgot to use the matlab filtering package
Quoting 156. AlphaBetaGamma01:

Have no idea what's going on here:



This says a couple of things to me.
The models are unreliable.
Otto is a remnant low or deppression.
Otto is a high end tropical storm.

MimI can shows Otto redeveloping an eye.
Where is the 11 o clock advisory?
blog broken
I described the problem, but that comment went into the black hole.
Anyway, the weather here is seasonal. "boring"
Quoting 169. ChiThom:

blog broken

Yep, it sure is. The link to the blog doesn't ever update. I come here and then see "A new blog entry has been added". You click on it and then see another update alert. There are three of these. Very strange.
Some navigation links are broken.
Quoting 162. JohnLonergan:

I found a much better analyisis at Carbon Brief,


Isn't weird how much of a difference context and perspective make? It's almost as if isolated facts can be meaningless.
Quoting 168. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Where is the 11 o clock advisory?



there no watch or warnings now and it moved in too the E PAC so new time zone

so the next update will be at 3pm

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST
Quoting 137. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Otto has emerged into the East Pacific with its inner core in tact (see radar image below) and just below hurricane threshold. Its contribution to the Atlantic seasonal ACE total has ended, and its contribution to the East Pacific seasonal ACE total will start at the next full advisory (9z). I expect the storm to be upgraded to a major hurricane in post-season analysis. An impressive storm to end the season--if this is the last storm.


I have never seen a tropical wave cross that far south, let alone a hurricane or tropical storm.

Welcome to my side....
Quoting 28. thetwilightzone:



i think we have all had enough with climate change and you no what for one week for once whats keep this blog climate change free

Depending on your age, you just may have more climate change than you want before you die off.
Nice Ped...

It is snowing here... Very lightly... But it is snowing... Supposed to snow on and off until at least Sunday. (Subject to change at any given second).

Quoting 154. Xyrus2000:



Sorry. Flagged and moved on.

Still, it's rather surprising how fast these guys can take a piece of research and twist it to say something it clearly doesn't say. I guess they just rely on people not bothering to read the actual research. :P
Good morning Xyrus...There are people who are experts on doing that very thing, and it is a very effective form of deception.
Quoting 80. NutZilla:



What?

Well then, I better not read another story about "melting sea ice" being a tell-tale sign of man-caused climate change!

Al Gore! He said there would be no Arctic sea ice THIS VERY YEAR...in his movie. He won an Oscar. He got rich!

Hmmmmmmmmmm. I guess movies by Al Gore fall into your criteria, too.

The arctic and the antarctic are two very different climates. Met 101.
Quoting 174. Misanthroptimist:



Isn't weird how much of a difference context and perspective make? It's almost as if isolated facts can be meaningless.


The figures never lie, but liars always figure comes to mind.
Quoting 179. Dakster:

Nice Ped...

It is snowing here... Very lightly... But it is snowing... Supposed to snow on and off until at least Sunday. (Subject to change at any given second).




Good to hear you are getting your desired weather....
Quoting 176. hydrus:

I have never seen a tropical wave cross that far south, let alone a hurricane or tropical storm.


Hurricane Joan in October 1988 formed from an easterly wave that emerged off Africa, crossed the southern Carribean, rapidly intensified to a category 4 storm, and made landfall just south of Bluefields, Nicaragua, laying waste to the city. Perhaps because Hurricane Gilbert also formed that season, Joan seems to have been forgotten, but not in Bluefields. For a summary of that season, including Joan, go to http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/m wreviews/1988.pdf
Quoting 180. hydrus:

Good morning Xyrus...There are people who are experts on doing that very thing, and it is a very effective form of deception.


They're called the "media".
Quoting 28. thetwilightzone:



i think we have all had enough with climate change and you no what for one week for once whats keep this blog climate change free


I dunno. Can't cheer much about the disinformation you admire.

And as a matter of fact, it seems to me that the end of the world as we know it is a bit more interesting than any particular storm.

But maybe it is time to make a separate blog for ACC. So many people seem to have a problem accepting the reality of it. But then again a lot of people are in denial, in some form, of their own deaths, regardless of the certainty of the fact.

Anyway the storm that currently is out there has been an interesting specimen in itself. Took its own sweet time to swirl up and then sailed right out into the pacific and didn't seem to lose that much steam doing it~
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
188. k3v
Quoting 185. PensacolaDoug:



They're called the "media".

Nice comment - On topic, thoughtful, not outrageously simplifying a complex system.
Not sure I understand what is going on with this blog. The main Wunderground page takes you to 2 blogs back and in order to get here you have to click through yellow boxes with messages telling you there is a new blog. Something in the code is wrong and should be fixed.
Quoting 189. VAstorms:

Not sure I understand what is going on with this blog. The main Wunderground page takes you to 2 blogs back and in order to get here you have to click through yellow boxes with messages telling you there is a new blog. Something in the code is wrong and should be fixed.


:/ I just change the entrynum in the URL.
Same thing now at 12:52 AM.

Quoting 189. VAstorms:

Not sure I understand what is going on with this blog. The main Wunderground page takes you to 2 blogs back and in order to get here you have to click through yellow boxes with messages telling you there is a new blog. Something in the code is wrong and should be fixed.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
159 PM PST SAT NOV 26 2016

* AT 158 PM PST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER...AND
SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 95 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.