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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Carolinas need to watch out Tuesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:58 PM GMT on June 26, 2006

The low pressure system we've been watching the past week over the Bahamas moved inland over central Florida yesterday, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical storm today. However, thunderstorm activity has increased over the Bahamas and Gulf Stream to the east of Florida today, and the latest 8am EDT run of the GFDL model is predicting that a tropical storm will form off the Florida coast on Tuesday morning. This storm is forecast to move rapidly northward and hit near the South Carolina/North Carolina border on Tuesday afternoon. If this occurs, all of coastal North Carolina is in for some very heavy rains Tuesday night through Wednesday. Most of the development should be on the east side of the storm, so South Carolina will not get hit as hard. The other models are not as enthusiastic as the GFDL about such a storm developing, and it certainly doesn't have much time to get it's act together. I think a tropical depression is quite possible, however. Regardless, this low pressure system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Southeast U.S. over the next two days. Depending on the low's track, the mid-Atlantic coast may also get a good soaking on Wednesday. The Hurricane Center has a Hurricane Hunter aircraft ready to investigate anything that might pop up Tuesday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the low over Florida.

Disturbance east of the Windward Islands
A weak low pressure area near 7N 48W, about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands, is tracking west-northwest at 15 mph. The heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding this low has mostly dissipated this afternoon. This low is moving west towards an area of higher wind shear, and is not expected to develop.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for the low east of the Windward Islands.

I'll be back with up update on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

What is with people 'first'ing...

Hmm, the GFDL has been forecasting this for a while on the 91L runs.
could that be a center of circulation that just came off the melbourne coast?

sure as heck looks like it to me! has storms sarting to wrap around...... i think we may get something outta this blob yet! :)
is there a center just off of melbourne? now.... sure looks like it to me.....
This storm or any other just can't form because remember Stormtop said it wouldn't.
its very broad and elongated, it is spinning though. still 20%
pressure at my house is 29.79. 15MPH winds with some 20-25 gusts. may gust to 35 when the storms pass through.
turtle..... based on the convection i see on the latest radar/ satellite, i think we have more than a 20% chance.....

not sure if i'd go 50/50, but definately greater than 20%......

it looks to me the center is in process of organizing, wrapping the t-storms around a llc......

gulf stream, low shear..... hmmm?
olley says its gonna rain!
thelmores, satellite presentation is extremely poor. this really has a low chance of development.
Question of the Day
What was Hurricane Katrina lowest central pressure? Was it more intense than Hurricane Camille?

Friday's Question: Ana was used in 1979, 1985, 1991, 1997, and 2003. Posted by MichaelSTL

email me or leave comments at my blog.
definately elongated! LOL
Nasty local thunderstorms here in the Palm Beachs of South Florida. Lots of Lightning, strong wind gusts in the 25-30 range.
Got hammered here..looks like the worst is over for northerm palm beaches
LOL turtle!

but where is the storm surge! :D
Too windy here for that hat, unless he has some duct tape.
That is toooo funny!! I must have been updating our site at the same time!! I really don't believe it has enough time to be a TS, but at the same time this was all but finished.
We need the rain here in Florida...so it's not all bad...
True, we just don't need it all at once :)
Big thunderstorms moving through Citrus on the west coast. Best rain in several days as most of the heavy rain was south in Pasco and Pinellas, sun shining right now but another cell is moving in from the west. If a TS does develop the rain will be welcome.
29.83. rose quickly. system moving fast?
Wow! My pressure has dropped to 1009mb.
you're down south right?
Yes, in Stuart. East coast. Pressure has been 1011...1010 all weekend. Just dropped in the past hour.
anything above 1005 is no big deal
Actually turtle we've had a depression with a pressure of 1014mbs before.
ya, I know. just providing a little data. the low seems right off the cape.
some intense tropical system start out as 1009mbr pressures....
It formed right where this storm is supposed to form.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/2033 UTC 16.1N 116.4E T2.5/2.5 03W -- West Pacific Ocean
26/1745 UTC 10.9N 45.0W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
26/1745 UTC 6.4N 48.6W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
26/1433 UTC 15.2N 115.4E T2.5/2.5 03W -- West Pacific Ocean
26/1145 UTC 6.7N 46.6W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean


94L?
I like what I am seeing more from 12W 45N then 7N 48W. Seems to be the small bit more condensed cousin..last few frame seem to show a little rotation

Link
Rats..I just saw that on satellite..you beat me to it Jersey!
I think 94L is the little storm that could..I will be watching that one for awhile [seems kinda like throwing darts in the dark right now]
sorry...lol

Why does that say 94L but there is no 94L listed on the NRL's site?
HK, trust me, in this environment anything above 1005 is no big deal.
94L was concocted from a conversation at the watercooler and hasnt made it on the website yet? Dunno.
turtlehurricane ...That is correct. Trading information about a low pressure system in your direct neighborhoods is not getting excited about anything. I just have not seen my pressure this low since 91L started. It is interesting!
Wouldn't surprise me. Probably not enough room on the site for all of these invests at one time.
It depends on the environmental pressures--pressure over the eastern gulf/FL/Bahamas/S Georgia are low. Hurricane Emily was briefly a hurricane with a central pressure of 1008 mb in 1993.
can any one tell me if we got 94L yes or no thank you
no 94L
rats
we will...LOL
Weather finally cleared in our area, been miserable with that low overhead for days. I hope that the South East gets needed rains without being totally flooded out or windblown.
hmmm that was odd hmmm
I am seeing a large vague circulation east of Jacskonville with very little shower activity and a smaller circulation (very questionable) over the Okeefenokee swamp. Link
StSIGAG - doesn't seem possible to get a hurricane out of that high a baro pressure reading... yet these systems make up their own rules as they go

Hurricane Bob in 1985 was a hurricane that made landfall in SC with a central pressure of 1002/1003 mb. Although I cannot find or remember any sustained hurricane force winds being reported, Folly beach had wind gusts to 93 mph, which is significant. I remeber the storm tracking about 50 miles to our east, with no rain and winds out of the NE and N in the 15-20 mph range and a pressure of around 1012 mb here.
Pressure here now is the lowest yet during this episode, 29.82 / 1009.7 mb
look ;ike we now have TD 2 what you all think yes or no

Pressures are now falling from Jacksonville beach northwards, and rising from St. Augustine southwards
NO, hasn't anyone looked at the satellite besides me?
My pressure is not rising...it has fallen some more. 1008.2. I was at 1010 around 3:30 this afternoon.
There are no showers near the 'center'
I was looking from St. Augustine south to Daytona.
Just north of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida - 29.68 in / 1005.0 hPa Its near a storm but sill its Low - even for a personal site.
Afternoon SSIG.

We are down to 1010 in Chas. Lowest in a over a week, but we are missing out on the rain. I am watching the clouds blow inland. Only pop corn type close to the coast for us.

As for the blob, this is the only time I have seen cloud tops this cold in this system so far. There have been several small bursts of negative seventy degrees celsius for the past hour or two. I would say that it is more interesting then it ever has been.

AJ
punching in FL at wunderground.com, I see in FL the lowest pressure being 29.78 @ Jacksonville (1008.4 mb) and the pressure at 1013 mb (29.91) at west palm beach, so that personal weather site needs to be recalibrated.
How you doing Stormjunkie?
looking at the visible satellite animation from the JAX weather office, there is no sign of a closed circulation yet.
Pressure at the FL-GA border, right on the coast is 1006 mb.
where do you see that FortLauderdaleGator?
Question of the Day
What was Hurricane Katrina lowest central pressure? Was it more intense than Hurricane Camille?

Friday's Question: Ana was used in 1979, 1985, 1991, 1997, and 2003. Posted by MichaelSTL

Email me at weather underground with answers or check my blog.
personal weather station ... GONOLES!
Everything still seems to be consolidating to just south of Melbourne - the cold high clouds.
what station--where do you see the site?
Good SSIG. Just got off work a little while ago. I had written 91L completely off last night, but it does look better to day then it has in awhile. And if there is a center to this thing Then I think it is near the are of the coldest cloud tops.

SJ

It's not online...it's at Kings Bay Subbase on the waterfront, in the Operations Center.
first post, been lurking.

Thought I'd share a good link I found. Weather station at the tip of Cape Fear NC

http://www.baldheadweather.com
Hey StSimonsIslandGaGuy, You live on one of the best places in can imagine. I get there when I can.
I think so too Baybuddy :) Where yat?
Who are all these pundits and prognosticators anywhays? How dare they prognosticate and pundify on this blog!;)

Seriously, this is one of those situations that have been so hard to call, nobody including the professionals have gotten the timing and intensity quite right more than a couple of days out (unless you count vague and general statements). Almost everyone got the rain they were wishing for, and so far very little damage, so a happy situation altogether if you ask me. The one remaining question: will it or will it not be called a depression before it finally comes onshore...

It is not a depression yet, there is no closed low. Perhaps, tomorrow---but not today.
Hey, my tags got stripped off of my post!
Back in 3 hours.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy - If there is a center to this thing, I am guessing it is offshore of you right now, a ways out east, but it is broad and there is too much dry air still nearby for convection to fire up. Some other folks are speculating on a center father south, underneath the convection, and that would put the system in more favorable conditions and give it more time to develop. In any case, I think the Atlantic will light up with convection tonight as this thing proceeds north. Fair to good chance of a depression, especially if it is farther south than I think.
The vis sat is becoming impressive. Esp. Just SE of Melbourne. It looks like its going to be the winner.
can someone help me; my blog has been deleted or reset to yesterday...my comments and blog is gone....
Its not like this thing couldve been looking any less impressive for a while there.
StSimons...looks like some pretty good thunder boomers heading our way...Link

We got nearly 2 inches over the last 24 hours, looks like some more on the way.
bumped ya, W456
JFla...you're not kidding. Good link, thanks.
I'm on the Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay.
W456...you're right, that's wierd. I bumped your blog, but it disappeared. Contact wunderyakuza...maybe he can help. You did have a good blog going there.
i solved it...it camed back
whats a bump...?
I keep hearing Atlantic H20 temps are cooler than usual. Any truth to this? BTW I'm new to this site.
JFLORIDA - The problem right now is that it is hard to tell the usual afternoon thunderstorms caused by daytime heating over the peninsula and by colliding outflow boundaries coming off of the east coasst of FL from where the convection will persist and develop over the ocean later tonight. I'm looking for some eastward movement of the low-level clouds around the convection off of Melbourne, which draws my eyes more to the north.

I guess it will be interesting to see later tonight where the convection blossoms over the water...
lmao guygee....pundify...lmao

I got no idea what this thing is going to do. I give it a about a 35 to 40% chance. That cold cloud blow up is over some pretty warm water, and I would think that if it has a center it would be some where near that blow up.

SJ
Anyone see that build of storms off the Yucatan?? Looks impressive more so then the windward or CFLA waves.
Baybuddy, check my blog.
welcome Baybuddy,there is some evidence that more cloud cover has allowed less sunlight to reach the surface.....

i will defer to the others for the evidence, i even think Dr. Masters is/was supposed to address this topic......
Our little blob has become a larger blob:
Link
Hey StormJunkie! I keep looking to the north, where the ULL is. It is still pretty dry near the center of that thing, but the broad circulation is around it. Maybe something develops under the convection tonight, like you say...then that would be a more serious problem for the folks in the Carolinas, as the system would have more time to develop. The Atlantic really started to light up with convection last night after about 10 PM, and I expect the same tonight, with the low pressures and instability.
I think a consolidation of the mid level circulations would occur as a drop in pressure works its way to the surface where the low lows will start to assemble. All surrounded by cool tops. Thats what Im thinking at least.
Any chance that as this thing moves away from land the southerly winds on the eastern side and the interactions with land on the western side could give her a jump start on spinning up?
JFLORIDA - Sounds about right. I clicked on HDW-high in Randrewl's link (Thanks Randrewl).
It doesn't jibe with my using the term "ULL" anymore, so whatever I am looking at to the north must be in the mid-levels.
I'm going out on a limb here abd will forecast this:

TD2 I believe will form in 1 hour! I see an ineresting thunderstorm complex swirling at the low off the Bervard/ Volusia coastline. If not then 11 p.m. will be the hour for 91L. I believe we will have Beryl by tommorrow morning and a landfall of 50 to 60 mph. I do believe I am going a little bit overboard but bear with me. Development of 91L is now at 7 out of 10 in my opinion. Very impressive visible imagery.

Ok so now thats my thoughts can you guys let me know what you think will happen and why? Just want to look at the whole bigger picture thats all.
Well I can't link you to the direct cloudsat & can't post the pic...but it is up & running and available to view here

the96L is on the run that started at 16:11 (latest one as of now). Didn't see any good passes of the blob.
Where would I find that image, Sporteguy?
That is a very cool link Skye, I hadn't ever looked at that view before.
well turtle and all you fine young people i see that jackass
storm dump was on here earlier spewing his garbagei invited him to
email this old country boy. you guys are good at pasting comments on here i want yall
to keep track of aLL HIS NONSENSE PREDICTIONS and repost them back to him also lets ignore the fool
who i think is really jeff anyway and he will go away just wants attention. also guys the system steing
in the southern carrib is still there this still looks much more interesting than bahama puff could be
wrong but those t/s are persistent
guygee, I was wondering about that, but I am having a really hard time identifying the ULL any more. Anyone help me understand this?
StormJunkie - I can see a broad circulation around an area very roughly at 31 N 78W (give or take). That is where the ULL "should be", but it is not showing up in the upper levels anymore.
that is best looking system i have seen in a long time......it has a nice swirl of clouds just off the Florida coast....
I see the spot there too I thought it might be some type distortion in the trough.
this thing might come Td 2......if it does a could conclude that June 2005 was similar to June 2006.
guys yall have a good evening got to watch part 2 of broken trail hope st
stays off of here remember send to me and if your bahama blob develops i will sure admit i was wrong
god bless
117. OBXER
Oh joy just what we need is more rain and wind here on the Outer Banks.What do you guys think i will get here in Ocracoke?
Tuff to tell just yet OBXER, but wind and rain is a pretty safe assumption:)

Anywho for any who have not seen. Please stop by StormJunkie.com. Where it is easy to find all of the best models, imagery, wind data, marine data, and more. Also a little bit of storm video.

SJ
Have a good evening SAINTHURRIFAN.
Ocracoke, now theres a vulnurable location. How is the weather tonight? Just out of curiousity what are your local weather stations saying?
A broad area of low pressure has developed North of Nicaragua in the NW Caribbean near 16N 86W, drifting Northward. So, in addition to 91L near the Coast of Florida, we need to watch that area in the Caribbean for development
hurricane79 - That is an interesting area down near 13 N 82.5 W. If that makes it much farther due north it will have a lot of open and very warm water to feed it.
Good to see you 79

SJ
I know i gave this a 25% chance right before Dr Masters started this blog. Now I have my doubts. ULL by the big bend, kinda shoving around the exploding convection. Still got frizzy hair...lol. say 10%. The trough is apon it as well.
Well I'm off again to bash my head against a brick wall called "level set theory", I've got a deadline, but I'll check back later tonight. It could get interesting out there...
Yeah there seems to be a couple of areas of convection down there. This time of year, it is a hot spot for development, so anything can happen there. SJ, been real busy recently, but good to be back.
Guygee,
That is also a favorable area in June for development...I wonder if the 1030 Tropical Outlook will mention it??
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF...THE SE US
INCLUDING MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE W ATLC W OF
80W WITH A 1010 MB LOW OVER S GEORGIA AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N84W TO 23N91W. AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA
FROM 26N-30N W OF 78W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD AREA
OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-84W AND INLAND OVER GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO
AS FAR N AS NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

$$
WALLACE
I'm in Southeast NC and from NC/SC border to Wilmington and to the outerbanks are under a flood watch but my area is under a flash flood watch why and what does this mean is happening? I've noticed the flood watches are slowly creeping up & replacing the flash flood watches around my city.
sporteguy03, the NHC will usually mention something about features we discuss... the update after we discuss them ... j/k
Even if the main area of low pressure near the Caribbean appears to be onshore...Areas of related convection nearby over water can easily acquire their own surface low... Especially with the low shear and warm waters in that area.
I was just curious as to what the locals were saying to the north of me. Our local guys arent saying much other then on and off rain increasing tonight and being out of here by 11:00 in the morning. When did we have Gaston here? Sorry not good with dates, better with names. That one snuck up on the area...I take it your in a flood prone area TS 006?
charlestonlady, nice to see you..... i'm in myrtle beach..... please don't let all the nice ladies like yourself leave Dr. Masters blog beacause of a "few" bad apples......

we certainly need a woman's touch in this blog, a sense of "reality" if you will..... :)

i know i certainly love a woman's point of view! ;)


That is not a 30kt storm!
thelmores- here it often, do ya! lol,I am kidding. There are more women on here then you think. MB andthe counties to the west of you seem to be a weather hot spot this year with storms in general.Are you in NMB or SMB? I seem to be on the "wrong side of the river" this year.
sry-hear. fingers are faster than the brain....
I believe the flare up you are seeing with 91 is simply afternoon heating thunderstorms pushing off the coast. Look at Cuba, same thing happened down there..Now that they are losing the daytime heating, they are dissapating. The low just helped to get the storms sparked off. 93 has the best chance I think. And that isn't looking too "good".
138. OBXER
charleslady up here in ocracoke it has been off and on rain all day with wids aroound 15 to 20 and they are calling for the same thing tomorrow with winds tomorrow night at 20 to 25.Noaa always seems to be at least 6 hours behind or more in changing their forecast so that should be interresting and the flood statement is nothing more than a rip tide warning, it is wierd that they put the rip tide warning under that,oh well.
The NHC has centered the low in the Central Atlantic to near 10N 48.1W... A bit closer to the Northern area of persistent convection
They list our rip tides under hazardous weather outlook. I guess they think people will pay more attention.
tropicalstorm006 asked the difference between flash flood warning & flood warnings.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.
Here's the NWS for your area. The coastal counties are heavy warning on the rip currents. Wonder how the waves are for surfing.

thelmores...lol on the woman's touch, I try, but being a woman I got a bunch of other things to tend. If only we had the option of turning a cold hose on them:P

I live in Greenville NC. Local forecasters predicting 1-3 inches across most of eastern NC with localized amts up to 5 inches. 006, you all on Ocracoke are liable to get closer to 5 inches. Nothing was made of any development on any of the local stations. The flash flood watches are ending due to the temporary break in the heavy rain. (They usually don't last long at all.) ALL of eastern (and central) NC are under flood watch due to high rainfall since Alberto
I've been reading about flooding in DC over ther past couple of days. Is the TD forming off the florida coast more bad news for the good folks in Washington... and GWB too?
OOPs sorry 006, OBXER was in Ocracoke...
ts006, It sounds like they are substituting flood watches for flash flood watches as the ground gets saturated, but you got me to thinking about the details. SkyePony beat me to an answer, but:

I tried to find a NWC definition in their directives. They tend to lump them together in their documentation. (This stuff will put you to sleep fast!) Anyway, a relevant passage:

"FF is entered if product is a flash flood watch, FA is entered if product is a
flood watch (for longer-fused flooding)."

In general, I would think that a flood watch is for the possibility of general flooding and flash floods would be more isolated in occurrence. It is difficult to anticipate flash floods and predict exactly where they will occur, say with a heavy slow moving thunderstorm. You don't know where the thunderstorm will be until it is already there most of the time.

Source:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01009022pend.pdf

The flood watch (Set) is used when the expectation of a flood event has increased, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so those who need to set their mitigation plans in motion can do so.

Areal flood watches inform the public of the
possibility of flooding typically within a 6 to 48 hour time frame before the event. Areal flood watches may cover states, counties, and portions of counties, states, or rivers (i.e., reach).

Issuance Criteria. Areal flood watches will be issued for a WFOs county warning area (CWA - see NWS Manual 10-507, Public Geographic Areas of Responsibility). Areal flood watches will be issued when one or more of the following onditions are met:
a. The possibility exists for meteorological, soil, and/or hydrologic conditions to
lead to flooding within a 48-hour period; or
b. The possibility exists for meteorological, soil, and/or hydrologic conditions to
lead to flooding more than 48 hours into the future and the forecaster determines
that the flood watch is the best way to convey this possibility; or
c. A dam or levee may fail and threaten lives or property, but the threat is not
deemed to be imminent, or
d. The effective time of a previously issued flood watch changes; and/or
e. The geographic area covered by a previously issued flood watch increases; and/or
f. An update to a previously issued flood watch is required; and/or
g. A cancellation of all or part of a previously issued flood watch is required; and/or
h. The expiration of a previously issued flood watch is to be announced (optional - if
required by regional or local office policies).
146. WSI
Hey floodzone. Just above Charlotte here. We haven't received near that much, at least not in my specific area. I have seen three tenths at my house, and a half inch at work. You can send some of yours this way.
Sorry bout that, lot longer than I expected.
I updated my blog with model runs for Invests 91L and 93L.
Never Feer Taco is Here!!!!! :-)

Well I see that we might have our 2nd TS soon.. Although I do wish we could have gotten more rain here but I am happy for what we got... I also know that we will get more but we will have to wait untill that storm goes up the east coast 1st... I better be carful what I ask for if you know what I mean>>>...

Taco:-)
Oh I almost forgot I am glade to see more Blogers on here... You all are always WELCOME...


Taco:-)
hey : taco2me61
Hey Super Dave how are you today??? and are you watching the Blobs out there???


Taco:-)
: taco2me61 yes i am and as we are talking we may have TD2 at any time
SJ,
looks like it could get interesting here tomorrow, though you wouldn't know it on the local stations
I can see that it may even be late tonight or early tomorrow...


Taco:-)
rescueguy where are you at?
Hey Micheal,
Which one do you think will form 1st
I JUST FINISHED MY BLOG STOP BY AND CHECK IT OUT....

Link
AL93 will be centered even further NE than previously indicated in the 6Z model run. This system is starting to get better organized, but at a slightly different location.
Invest 91L has a better appearance and most models actually have a cyclone located around the general area (the GFDL is the only model that shows anything where Invest 93L is; that is why I have "nothing shown" next to the models in my blog (the cyclone phase analysis section, which will show the track and characteristics of any cyclones, as well as the SSTs).
Pressure has risen by 1.9 mb here in past 3 hours, and the wind has veered from E to SE to S. It is difficult to interpret any other way than a low pressure area moving up from the south and tracking inland to my west.
I don't know what is up with the GFS, as the only cyclone it has in the general area of Invest 91L is over Alabama; the NHC says that there are several cyclonic centers. Link
Maybe a low pressure center will form over the Gulf Stream east of Cape Canaveral. With the nocturnal max approaching, it is possible--Alberto had its center reform under the convection. But, I will not be waiting up to find out ;-)
SHIPS is getting ambitious with its forecast ;-)
167. MahFL
Hurricane23, please stop shouting (using all caps ).
chaslady I am in north charleston, born and raised here. Stayed during hugo on the ashley river
Another Chas. blogger?
Micheal are you sure it is over Alabama???


Taco:-)
We have our own little crew now !)

SJ

I doubt that it is actually that far away; the GFS is most likely tracking a different low (ignoring any other lows). In fact, only two models have a low in the same place; the CMC and NOGAPS have it near where Alberto made landfall while the UKMET has it over southern Georgia and the GFDL has it over northern Florida.
Hey, SJ.....how heavy do you think we'll get hit with rain tonight?
It looks like we may have some on shore flow setting up now Bug, and this area off Cape Caniveral looks interesting.

SJ
That GFS is saying what IslandGuy is saying & what I said a bit ago. Lowest pressure was Big Bend, Panhandle, now SW GA. Floater 1 (in rainbow), click on Fronts (notice 1009 L in SW GA) & click on MSLP. Then you can see the pressure gradents. That convection to the east of Fl looks good, like it's trying to form something but the front looks like it is almost rolling it backwards. No big pressure gradient except to the east to set off big winds with 1012mbs. Unless it became a cut off low. Still see a big mess for NC & NE.
Anybody got some bouy reading from Bahamas?

Those flood definitions were pasteed from with in that link I left. Flash is more of a sudden rising water event.
I see we have a new invest going, too. Wonder what tomorrow will bring? LOL...
From the floater if you look at the lower level clouds to the east there seems to be a Strong lower level circ under the clouds. Im thinking a center about 200 mi ESE of Melbourne, fl. Take a look at the loop. I think there were two UULs - like gears on chain.
Great Site StormJunkie. You obviously put a lot of time into it.
Bouy Data

Did not see anything too interesting at the bouys off of Cape C

You can also find the Bouy Data Center link at StormJunkie.com
Sea buoys show no hints of any pressures lowering off FL East Coast. Mild S to SE winds...think the low is in Southern Georgia.Link
Hey palmetto gang, Iam back after watching the last out in the college world series, and no UNc did not when!

Pretty good rain band just came through about half hour ago
Thanks Bay, I hope to get more done soon. Gonna be touch and go through tropical season though.

SJ
man its been a long day, forgot how to type and spell
Besides where did that second storm that was in the Caribbean go anyway?
It shouldnt appear on the surface first necessarily.
I have posted my new forecast map at Link
How is the wind shear holding up? Anyone?
Baybuddy I wanted to say welcome to Weatherunderground... as for the sear it is slowing down and could give this blob a chance to form...


Taco:-)
charlestonlady, i am about 12 iles from the oceanfront, of 501, so i almost half way between conway and myrtle beach (carolina forest)......

one thing for sure..... the BB of 06 will definately be remembered for rainif nothing else! :)
WOW...it's coming down right now!
Thanks Taco. I really enjoy this forum. I have reached the point where I cannot watch our local news/weather any more.
Baybuddy ,
I understand, We both must watch the same channel and I sure have had enough of 15,10,5 and 3...


Taco:-)
Yea - sky I never seriously used the Rainbow thats good.
Good night all.
have a good one Bay... Chat with ya tomorrrow...



Taco:-)
Close lightning strike!

We've had almost 2 inches today near Greenville NC and counting. Kenansville the big winner at almost 7 inches; Jacksonville almost 5... A lot more tomorrow. Wish Charlotte and other dry areas could have it...
Good nite all, I will be chating with yall tomorrow ...




Taco:-)
Nite, taco!
...or should I say... buenas noches
LOL Nite Floodzonenc...

oh yea have your arc ready you are going to get some more kind of rain...LOL


Taco:-)
nite all..... we'll see what the weather gods bring to us on the n. coast of sc tomorrow.....

least i don't have to water the lawn! LOL
26/2345 UTC 10.5N 46.1W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


....err?
Y'all help a teacher out... Lobby to get us a raise so I can build a new house... OUTSIDE the FRIGGIN FLOODPLAIN.

This area never flooded in the 60 years that the old people around here can remember. Bought this house in 96 and BAM... historic flooding from Floyd then again in August 2003.

I'm getting that deva vue feeling again...

Thanks for letting me vent... night all!
Its splash and dash here. We just had a good soaking. I dont know what to make of this system off Fl. It looks or looked (havent checked lately)really good on radar but other then an honorable mention.... so is it something or are the eyes seeing what they want to see?
Currently --

So the UUL was over the mid panhandle moving into Ga. (IR last few frames) A shear jet comes through at the Fl/Ga border near jax and - Im thinking another UUL and/or midlevel combined circ is just 200 east of Melbourne. Is this where you guys are at?
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS STRONG SE FLOW CONTINUES TO PILE UP THE SEAS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRES CURRENTLY OFF THE GA COAST WILL SLIDE UP THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE CWA BY TUE. THE GFS KEEP THE LOW FURTHER INLAND...WHILE
THE NAM TAKES IT MORE ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS REASON THE NAM IS
SHOWING SIG STRONGER WINDS THAN THE GFS...WITH GUST POTENTIAL
AROUND GALE FORCE. WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BLEND SINCE THE GFS HAS
BEEN UNDERDONE THIS EVENING AND THE NAM OVERDONE...FEEL THIS TREND
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH OFFSHORE FCST. WITH
ABOUT A 5KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...HAVE ADDED AN EXTRA FT TO
THE SEAS. THIS WILL PUSH SURF CONDITIONS NEAR HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA MAINLY ALONG THE N OBX TUE EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY SINCE IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON THE LOW
TRACK...ESPECIALLY SINCE CRITERIA WOULD ONLY END UP BEING MARGINAL
AT BEST ANYWAYS. HAVE STARTED SCA A BIT EARLIER IN THE PAMLICO AND
INCLUDED THE ALBEMARLE FOR THE EVENING TIME FRAME.



&&

From the eastern North Carolina discussion as of 921pm edt .
Thanks HK

NWS is still running almost exclusively off the models even though they were not initially correct and really havent been throughout this systems life. Are you guys thinking different?
I have made a very interesting blog entry about tropical cyclones near the equator. its a must read.
heck, turtle...I thought my blog "Crab Happy" was a must-read, too...hope you do better than me! Heck I'll go bump your bog just for the heck of it!
Dang...looks like I need to get an in-house spellcheck, too...Thesauraus anybody? Anyone?

Anyone?
Looks like the system east of Bermuda is starting to develop again, after having lost almost all of its thunderstorms. But more interesting, the thunderstorms are mostly on the western side of it rather than the eastern side. I say this thing still has a chance at developing.
So Im thinking - In a few hours or less the UUL will emerge near the Ga/Fl line and will, along with the mess off Florida, make a mess in the Atlantic and up the east coast. There is really no reason for it to move very far though. Especially the stuff near the Bahamas. This whole system is getting old!
Yeah really, it should just develop into Beryl really quick and get that name checked off the 2006 list and get it all over with, haha
Here's the tropical formation probibilities map.

JFlorida~ I like the rainbow at night. NOAA's description...Rainbow enhancement curve - pretty color enhancement

during the day my preference is the RGB Combination of Visible and IR using a three channel technique to make features stand out It looks awesome (when there is high clouds) at dawn & dusk.

I do check things against the WV, I just enjoy the eye candy packages NOAA puts together.

I still can't believe they're releasing the cloudsat already after they just said it would be 6 weeks. I wish it was a little more linkable. Check out the 17:50, totally gives the side view of 91L. There's a easy tutorial in there right above the rectangle with all the runs, the QUICKLOOK IMAGES - FAQ.
Question of the Day
What was Hurricane Katrina lowest central pressure? Was it more intense than Hurricane Camille?

Friday's Question: Ana was used in 1979, 1985, 1991, 1997, and 2003. Posted by MichaelSTL

Email me at weather underground with answers or check my blog.
Just got awakened by rain pounding on my window about 10 minutes ago. There was one small, but really intense, blob on the radar that came in from the SW and passed right over my neighborhood. It's all quiet now, though. Y'all keep an eye out for them blobs, y'hear?
217. MahFL
That looks like a Tropical Depression to me, off the coast of South Carolina.
MahFL - Agreed. It has an upper level anti-cyclonic circulation, and a lower-level cyclonic circulation with banding. That area formed from the convection that come off the FL coast near Melbourne yesterday. I can't find any buoys near it's center, but Station 41002 well to the ENE is reporting SE 17.5 kts, while Station 41012 to the SW is reporting 15.5 kts from the SW. The small system looks like it will come onshore N. Carolina or near the SC/NC border a little later today. It will be interesting to see if the NHC calls it a depression before it makes landfall.
219. MahFL
Its proberbly being fueled by the warm Gulf Stream waters.
def. looks like a depression soon if not now...if it continues to build deep convection over top it self the 6-8 hours before coming inland...we could have a beryl landfalling between holden beach and emerald isle. top speed of 45-50...lets watch and see...
Checking the 6:00 AM surface pressure readings in FL, GA, SC and NC: pressures are still relatively low over the FL panhandle, but otherwise, the lowest pressures I could find were from coastal SC, with the lowest readings CHARLESTON APT 29.90S and BEAUFORT 29.90F. Maybe this system isn't quite big enough or strong enough for the NHC to call it a depression before landfall, but it looks like a closed tropical cyclone right now.
The circulation can be seen in the last few frames of the this Intellicast composite radar loop for the SE coast.
the NHC looks like they are blind....that looks like alberto wen it was over Georgia
223. MahFL
NHC are notoriously conservative IMHO.
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.
speaking of blobs, what's that thing just south of western cuba? been growing.

I think we have TD#2 over the gulf stream. seems like the center is headed for the outer banks though. might get 12 hours to develop.
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WONT41 KNHC 271133
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART




Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

000
WONT41 KNHC 271133
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

Thanks for the updates, all. Good to see the NHC is watching. Big question on the possible depression is if it pulling a northerly wind around its center at the surface. It looks to be doing so, very close to the center, but all nearby stations and buoys are reporting SW, S or SE surface winds.
borlando - Tropical weather discussion said that convection near Cuba is the result of upper air diffluence. Shear is high in that area.
Definetly getting its act together. I see Bytle in the works.
guygee....Yeah, I can't find anywhere reporting any other wind directions. Obviously if there is any circulation there....it is very tight.
Good morning, Guys....

New member here, getting ready to cross from Ft. Pierce, FL to West End, Grand Bahama. Trying to monitor conditions for the next week. Just when I decided to make the trip, the weather goes to hell.

Tomorrow is now my departure date. Hopefully, the seas will have died down and the wind will be out of the south.

Any comments as to weather hazards, will be welcomed.

Thanks in advance...

Capt. Hank
234. MahFL
I think I can see a "radar eye".