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Carolinas disturbance struggling with two centers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 AM GMT on September 08, 2007

The area of disturbed weather (99L) moving towards the North Carolina/South Carolina coast is trying to get more organized, but has developed a split personality. With a west and an east circulation center just a few hundred miles apart (Figure 1), the two areas of disturbed weather are competing, and neither appears able to gain the upper hand. 99L cannot become a tropical depression until one center becomes dominant. As a result, the prospects for 99L making landfall as a strong tropical storm are growing increasingly dim, and it now appears that a 55-mph tropical storm will be the strongest system that will have time to form. The timing of landfall is problematic, since it is not clear which center will end up winning. Wind shear is higher over the western center (20 knots) than the eastern center (10 knots), so this may favor the eastern center winning out. The western center's thunderstorms should begin affecting the South Carolina/North Carolina coast Saturday night, and the the eastern center will begin affecting this region Sunday morning. Top winds found by the latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft around 7pm EDT were approximately 30 mph at the surface.


Figure 1. Satellite image of 99L showing the east and west centers competing to be boss. Whose side will the blob of thunderstorms in the middle choose?

I'll have a full analysis Saturday morning by 9:30am.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wow
invest 07???
the tropical page says invest 07. that is kind of impossible. the gulf blob looks weird. needs watching. i wonder if it could develop a low from the 90 degree gulf water?
wow what a turnout.. can't believe it
Hmmm...strange. I had thought the middle blob was where the center was and the left blob was more being caused by the ULL. The right blob was the earlier convection on the east side of the low that has since been sheared off. I guess I was wrong.
this is going to be fun
i think the gulf blob should be an invest soon.
Top winds found by the latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft were about 30 mph at the surface.

I thought that 50 mph winds were found (it is currently at 40 kts/45 mph)?
Look a couple degrees south of the eastern LLC Dr Masters is writing about....whoa.
time to play pick your center blob



take your pick
I'm not sure if it looks more like an eye or a spaceship.....At least it will rain here in New Bern this weekend.
wow! i didn't know storms could do this! how often do storms reproduce asexually?
PLACE YOUR BETS! PLACE YOUR BETS! WHO WILL WIN THE FIGHT! EAST OR WEST! PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!
the east blob looks like hawaii's main island. :p but that is odd. i didn't realise it had 2 centers. i thought it had one center and convection was building on the west side.
Navy has 07L.Gabrielle

Upgrade @ 11 pm
Kmanislander is right. We'll soon see where the NHC thinks the center is.
UPGRADE TO TS FROM invest?? skip TD?
ok guys im out. just stopping by anyway. if any of you guys have replies to my questions, feel free to mail me. i think that the east side looks better, but that weird theory of two cyclones rotating around each other makes me think a center point in the middle will form and cause a coc in the center and the other coc's to dissapate, leaving the center coc to be the one and only center. imo. dont know. been away from weather for 2 weeks or more.
eeny meeny miny moe

Catch a blob by the toe
If the whind blows let her grow

eeny meeny miny moe
dr m i sent you a WU e mail
Thanks for the evening update Dr M
Good catch kman, that is interesting.
Wow, this is quite surprising. Thank you Jeff.
I saw the image of 99L earlier today and almost posted " will the real slim shady please stand up, please stand up " LMAO
07L.GABRIELLE is on the navy site
Thank you for the very timely update Dr. M!

Folks, watching the big RAP WV loop, I can almost "see" the possibility of the ULL associated with "west 99L" sliding SW under the trough into the GOM. Seems farfetched considering the model forecasts, but the trough really isn't all that deep, it is lifting out, the surface high currently still extends WSW down into the N central Gulf, and there is a mid-upper level high currently centered over ArkLaTex. Any thoughts on this scenario?

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
thanks for the update...time will tell
from the navy site


Atlantic
07L.GABRIELLE

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
98W.INVEST
11W.DANAS
10W.FITOW
Also notice this:

07LGABRIELLE.40kts-1011mb-301N-717W



It looks like they put the center where the blob in the middle is.
Does anyone know roughyl what time the diurnal max would occur over the gulf of Mexico blob?
How 'bout that center blob? That is where the low was placed only a few hours ago, and the NRL image is centered over it.
sub tropical storm Gabrielle is up on WU home page
we now have Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE
Not putting too much faith in this...but The Weather Channel says it's being named Sub-Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
Guygee...Not to disrespect the good Dr. but thats where I think the real center is.
And on the NHC:

SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 72.2W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 72.2W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.1N 73.7W...SUBTROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.3N 75.5W...SUBTROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 76.8W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 37.5N 73.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 40.5N 67.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 43.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
Squid how bout 99L and when the DMAX occurs over it as well. We could see tropical transition as it gets closer to the DMAX from the Sub tropical system it is right now. STS Gabrielle with winds at 45mph.
It looks like 50 knots is the expected highest intensity according to the marine advisory. I guess that seems more reasonable then my guess at a 105mph category two hurricane. I guess I got ahead of myself.
This is interesting! Gabby can't make up her mind, can she?
The NHC puts the center at the center blob, looks like it will be the dominate center.
NHC issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE
I seen it's been upgraded...and it's barely a "low"..that's the TWC description..lol
When there was a 52 mph sustained gust by a buoy..they upgraded it, I think.
SJ...this may be the one
I think the NHC is confused...



LOL...
I told you this was one of the more interesting invests in years. The good Dr. has been kind enough to proffer a late Friday night update. Thank you. The NHC has this system as Sub-tropical, then tropical, then extra-tropical. And still there's the uncertainty in track and intensity always associated with weather and tropical cyclones. I wonder what tomorrow morning will bring.
I think the NHC is confused...

Well it has 2 centers remember. lol
Never heard of a storm with 2 centers..Has anyone else? This could be a first. Talk about your split personalties..lol
public advisory now up.
They fixed it now (I remember MargieKieper posted something similar before).


SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
2 centers, unreal!

What is the word, I think Japanese, for 2 hurricanes in close proximity, spinning around each other? Can't remember.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
WTNT32 KNHC 080243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
I want to see the discussion.
550 miles just south of due east of me.
A most unlikely looking storm but a storm nonetheless it would seem.

Just one more odd chapter in an already unusual tropical season. The next shoe to drop will probably be a very active late season as we have not had one of those for several years
There's nasty weather out there, and I think as some people were pointing out near the end of the last blog, somebody had to make some kind of call. Not a time for niceties like beautiful symmetric tropical organization when a potentially destructive or even deadly system is so close to shore.
kamislander....2005 was only the year before last.
hey is the blob by the bahamas going to try to do something too
I do disagree with the NHC that it won't be stronger over next day, I expect that it will be up to 55 mph or so 24 hours from now.
wow

Seemed longer than that LOL
did seem kinda like a random choice for Lat/Lon tho.
Posted By: kmanislander at 2:49 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
"A most unlikely looking storm but a storm nonetheless it would seem."

Yeah it looks more like a bird of prey swooping down than a cyclone of any kind, lol.
2003 had 2 December tropical storms as well. Odette and Peter.
It does seem longer then that somehow.
You know what time it is, bedtime!
boobless...I dont think so. It's actually where I saw the most spin on the loops after checking things out when Dr. Masters said there were 2 centers.
See? SEE? Never declare invests dead. Remember that! ;)

There's nasty weather out there, and I think as some people were pointing out near the end of the last blog, somebody had to make some kind of call. Not a time for niceties like beautiful symmetric tropical organization when a potentially destructive or even deadly system is so close to shore.

I'd hardly call a SUBtropical storm destructive and deadly. IMO, that's a bit misleading, especially if people from NC are reading this. No offense, but I think it is misleading.
OKOKOK

I surrender LOL
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 2:47 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
"I want to see the discussion."

It was seeming like "west 99L" was GA's best chance of rain in a while.

Maybe the blobs will part company and continue on their separate ways, whether they individually develop much or not.
LOL kman! At least that was 4 years ago.
It's the most disorganized TS/Sub TS I ever seen..
Hey, kman.
Must be kinda relaxed storm tracking for you of late, huh?
Actually we ought to be grateful that Gabrielle is all that is out there on the 7 th of Sept.

Could be a lot worse 3 days from the historical peak
It's the most disorganized TS/Sub TS I ever seen..

Just look at Danas in the West Pacific. I'd barely call that a blob.
Little change in 24 hours? What about in the 24-48 hour range? Do they expect intensification over the GS near the coast?
I actually thought last night (when I was quite pessimistic on 99L) that it would head to the WSW today instead of NW. But it is almost at my latitude now, and so I expect a Carolina impact. Usually when that happens we get a NW breeze and it is dry and hot.
JP,
The Crow is well done would you like sauce with that? LOL :)
Actually we ought to be grateful that Gabrielle is all that is out there on the 7 th of Sept.

Could be a lot worse 3 days from the historical peak


That's true.

now its time for everyone to eat the crow they had been keeping warm lol

Wait till after Gabrielle dissipates. Then people will complain that the season is a bust because we don't have Humberto the second after Gabrielle dissipates. LOL I'm betting my money it.
Boobless

Very relaxed here in the Caribbean I can tell you !

No adrenaline left either LMAO
Posted By: HurricaneMyles at 2:54 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

boobless...I dont think so. It's actually where I saw the most spin on the loops after checking things out when Dr. Masters said there were 2 centers.

Thanks, HM-I'll have another go at it.
I'm still looking at it from a hybrid view. Need to change my perspective lol.
kman.
always caffeine, my friend.
Posted By: KoritheMan at 2:55 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

"I'd hardly call a SUBtropical storm destructive and deadly. IMO, that's a bit misleading, especially if people from NC are reading this. No offense, but I think it is misleading."

Not true if you are a surfer, a boater, or an ocean swimmer. That takes care of the "deadly" part.

"Destructive" is easier to deal with...ever live on or near the beach? Always seems like somebody's home is hanging near the edge in every beachside neighborhood anymore.
Destructive to the dunes is bad enough when you live beachside.
I don't get to spend that much time at this blog but 99L is weird looking. Local radio just said TS Gabrielle (sp) has formed
Korithe..I'm talking about Gabrielle, not Danas.
JP

yea we have. Never imagined two Cat 5's in the neighbourhood and all within a 3 week time period. What we did learn though is that if you are bang in the middle of the forecast track 3 to 5 days out you are pretty safe statistically LOL
Not true if you are a surfer, a boater, or an ocean swimmer. That takes care of the "deadly" part.

First of all, people shouldn't be out there when they know something is coming.

As for the destruction part, that's true, but it's not enough to panic over, IMO. Just be prepared whenever something like that happens.

Korithe..I'm talking about Gabrielle, not Danas.

So? Danas looks much worse than Gabrielle. I've NEVER seen a tropical storm look this bad. I'm not exaggerating.
No JP you get chicken sandwich from Chik Fil A others get to eat crow now which side wins west or east blob?
1994 TS Gordon, which was actually a subtropical/hybrid for awhile, killed 2 people in Barefoot Bay with a tornado, near where I live in east Central Florida, ...at the time, it was centered over Key West. Subtropical winds can be strongest a couple of hundred miles away from the center.
Danas looks more developed than Gabrielle at this time, esp when Gabby has 2 centers. I've seen worse classified TS's in different sizes.
Subtropical winds can be strongest a couple of hundred miles away from the center.

I know that. Believe me, I know. But either way, it's not something to treat like the Oklahoma City bombing.
sigh....discussion *STILL* not up! They must be really scratching their heads figuring out what to say!
Posted By: BtnTx at 3:01 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

I don't get to spend that much time at this blog but 99L is weird looking. Local radio just said TS Gabriel (sp) has formed


That is true Baytown neighbor (Crosby).
Most of the recent discussion here has been what it has formed (joke).
It's just not the classic shape I'd choose for my Windows Desktop background.

Hey just heard a boom-another poster from B'town heard one a while ago-how bout you?
Danas looks more developed than Gabrielle at this time, esp when Gabby has 2 centers. I've seen worse classified TS's in different sizes.

Danas doesn't even have anything but yellow convection on satellite. That's hardly even deep. At least Gabby has some sort of red convection somewhere.
Danas looks worse then Gabby no question

Thank you, jp. :)

Good night, StormW. Hope you get your modem fixed. I know what that's like.
104. BtnTx
boobless - no booms here all eve
Danas has a much better defined circulation, even if they cloud tops aren't very cold.

BTW, NHC says there's one center at 30.4N 72.2W.
Gabby has no wrap around feature, in my book, that's poorly defined. Let's wait till tomorrow.
from TWC on the CV wave

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, an area of tropical low pressure has emerged off of Africa, and is now drifting west into the eastern Atlantic. Some slow organization of this low will be possible over the next several days
Well the Cape Verde wave could eventually be something really nasty. Gabrielle probably will not.
thanks, BtnTx-Ill put the gas masks back in the closet.
Kori is right, and West Pacific storms usually have huge amounts of convection, either when compared with Danas or most Atlantic storms, due to the environment:





Of course, neither of them are Cat 5s:



I do agree that Danas looks more organized though.
Danas has a lot more water to go thru to get bigger..Gabrielle will peak out to maybe 70 mph. The West Pac is known for its typhoons..and the room it has to grow.
Danas is wrapped around..Gabby isn't..Thanks for the pic comparisons.
Well actually the Cape Verde wave could eventually be something really nasty. Gabrielle probably will not.

Agreed. I have been watching this wave for about 36 hours now. I think 90L by tommmorow.

Folks, get ready, the heart of hurricane season is here. We knew the season was not going to be another 2006, and it was ridiculous for people (including myself) to think it had a chance to be that way.
I do not think it is an exaggeration to say "deadly and destructive", because property gets destroyed and people do die. KoritheMan, you are like all "that guy shouldn't have been standing under the tree when it fell". Well, it may be dumb, it may be bad luck, but people stand under trees during storms

People will be in boats, out swimming, surfing, etc.

Unless the beach has been recently renourished, houses will fall into the ocean, along with walkways and public park infrastructure.

Yeah, "deadly and destructive" sums it up nicely...not like I am saying catastrophic or apocalyptic
Kori is right, and West Pacific storms usually have huge amounts of convection, either when compared with Danas or most Atlantic storms, due to the environment:

THANK YOU, STL. Thank you.

I do agree that Gabby has a less well-defined circulation than Danas, but deeper convection.
is anyone chcking out the red blob by nassau in the bahamas .yet could it form too
Does anyone(old enough) ever remember a situation where you had US watches/warnings posted.....and no discussion. ????
They are uncertain. But considering the proximity to the coast the NHC had to do something. It would look bad if a storm originating in the waters at this time oof year caused any level of signifigant flooding, winds, etc., and no watch was ever posted.
guygee, well the only thing we really can do is build stronger buildings, and stop building so close to the coast, but people won't do that. There's nothing that can be done to stop these things from coming. Either way though, with advanced warnings, if people HEED them, there would be a lot less death and destruction.
Well actually the Cape Verde wave could eventually be something really nasty. Gabrielle probably will not.

I also agree, especially because what the last two storms to develop from tropical waves did (not saying that we will have another Dean or Felix).
Danas and Gabrielle?? what are y'all talking about?
Does anyone(old enough) ever remember a situation where you had US watches/warnings posted.....and no discussion. ????
They are uncertain. But considering the proximity to the coast the NHC had to do something. It would look bad if a storm originating in the waters at this time oof year caused any level of signifigant flooding, winds, etc., and no watch was ever posted.


Nope, I never remember this happening.
two landfalling cat 5's already and here comes another capeverde wave....NOT LOOKIN GOOD FOLKS. and the deeper we get into sept/october the more these cold fronts come through and the U.S. is bullseye. but also more chance of fish storms i suppose
I also agree, especially because what the last two storms to develop from tropical waves did (not saying that we will have another Dean or Felix).

Well STL, it would not surprise me if we DID have another Dean or Felix. Not saying we will either, but 2007 is beginning to look like 1955, at least in terms of retired names. Gabrielle probably won't be retired unless something drastic happens, but Humberto, if it develops from the CV wave, has a chance to be, IMO. As you know STL, Cape Verde storms are almost always very powerful and long-lasting. If we were to get another major hurricane within the next week or so, I think it would be from this.

Danas and Gabrielle?? what are y'all talking about?

Danas is a West Pacific tropical storm, Gabrielle is an Atlantic subtropical storm.
two landfalling cat 5's already and here comes another capeverde wave....NOT LOOKIN GOOD FOLKS. and the deeper we get into sept/october the more these cold fronts come through and the U.S. is bullseye. but also more chance of fish storms i suppose

Yeah, it's 50/50. Chance for fish storms, chance for U.S. strikes. This season is NOT over by a longshot.
Oh yeah,
Good call and graphics on the split, guygee.
Must have a hot line to Dr. M :]
discussion *finally* up!
This is what a typical West Pacific storm looks like, at the same stage as Danas (I noticed though that many of the storms this year have not been as impressive as they usaully are, then it has also been considerably less active than usual, likely due to La Nina):

When did they name these? As of last night I thought 99L was bust.
Posted By: KoritheMan at 3:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
"guygee, well the only thing we really can do is build stronger buildings, and stop building so close to the coast, but people won't do that. There's nothing that can be done to stop these things from coming. Either way though, with advanced warnings, if people HEED them, there would be a lot less death and destruction."

No disagreement with that KoritheMan. Although some of the older houses built 30-40 years ago around here used to be much further from the beach than they are now.
They list a lot of negatives, which might be expected for a storm that looks like a beret.
Gabby will be a distant memory by Sunday, Danas will be out there for awhile longer.
Man-Yi was a Cat 5 storm that hit Okinawa..The youtube vids were quite interesting.
Oh I don't think so...Gabby will probably get some action going on Sunday as she passes over the Gulf Stream when the shear may be down. Probably make a run at hurricane strength and not quite make it is my guess.
It's scheduled to make landfall Sun AM.
yeah taz a sts this time of the season taz are you sure the blob by the bahaams is a ull it looks like its getting larger
It has 30-36 hours left before landfall. Watches/Warnings are up right now.
new blog fldoughboy
Also from the 805EDT (late)TWD:
DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N87W 22N84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF W CUBA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 84W-90W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 90W-95W. FURTHER
S...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
88W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR 33N97W PRODUCING NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREAS
OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

I guess the weather people are wrong then as my math is..350 miles from North Carolina, moving at 10 mph..I believe that's 35 hours.
well it is forecast to move in a curve, not a straight line.
Ok, Point taken, SSI. For the time being it is moving due west (just about).
truecajun, what part of LA are you residing?
Boobless, what are they hinting around at in the discussion you posted? Also, what's a ULL?
I'm from New Iberia (was there when Andrew's eye made landfall) We just moved to Brusly, La (southwest of Baton Rouge). We're pretty safe here, but living less than a mile from the Missippi river frightens me.
I'm in Lafayette. I remember Andrew. We were lucky - you guys weren't. I do remember Lily. Anyting in the GOM makes me nervous. Brusly is a nice place.
Neat! We just moved from Broussard to Brusly. I miss Broussard so much. I'm a small town girl at heart. The traffic and hustle and bustle of Baton Rouge still stresses me out. Brusly is nice, but we still have to go into Baton Rouge for work, school, shopping etc.
Small world. Yeah, Broussard is a neat little town too. Growing, but still has a small town feel to it. Baton Rouge is way too busy for me. So many New Orleanians relocated there - traffic is really bad now.
HEY GUYS..... THE GOOD DOCTOR HAS UPDATED WITH A NEW BLOG AT 11:11 PM. EVERYONE IS ON THE NEW BLOG!!!
The traffic is INSANE and it's at almost ALL times of the day. Most places just deal with 8 and 5 traffic. Not here, it's all day! It really changes your quality of life. Anyhow, i have to just learn to accept it.
Shortest. Blog. Ever.