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Carolina Floods Breach 18 Dams and Kill 16 People; Tropics Quiet Down

By: Jeff Masters 3:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2015

South Carolina and North Carolina's epic deluge has finally ended after five days of ceaseless rains. No rain is expected to fall in either state through Thursday, giving time for the swollen rivers to recede and flooded communities to recover. The storm has killed at least fourteen people in South Carolina (eight drownings and six traffic deaths); an additional two storm-related fatalities were reported in North Carolina. The peak 5-day rainfall amount from the storm was 27.15", at CoCoRaHS station SC-CR-69 in Mount Pleasant, a suburb of Charleston on the city's northeast side. As of 9 am EDT Tuesday, 306 state-maintained roads and 163 bridges were closed in South Carolina, which was down from a high of 368 roads/171 bridges closed at 10 pm EDT Monday. The South Carolina Emergency Management Division tweeted Tuesday morning that eighteen dams had been breached statewide.

The National Weather Service Facebook page has an excellent animation showing the evolution of Joaquin and then the low pressure system that brought the heavy rains to South Carolina.


Figure 1. A church is surrounded by flood waters on October 5, 2015 in Columbia, South Carolina. Image credit: Sean Rayford/Getty Images.

Hurricane Joaquin speeding out to sea
Hurricane Joaquin is still a Category 1 hurricane as it speeds northeastwards out to sea, but the storm will not affect any more land areas as a tropical cyclone. By Wednesday night, Joaquin will evolve into a powerful extratropical storm, and will likely bring strong winds and heavy rain to Europe this weekend.

The Miami Herald has an excellent series of images showing the path of the ill-fated El Faro into Hurricane Joaquin, with the NHC advisory cones superimposed. It sure looks like forecast uncertainty should not have contributed much to the loss of the vessel and the 33 crew members on board.

91L approaching Lesser Antilles with no signs of development
An area of low pressure (Invest 91L) centered at 8 am EDT Tuesday about 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Satellite loops show that 91L is very unimpressive, with little spin or much in the way of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently high, 30 - 35 knots, but will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday, according to the 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model. One of our three reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis, the European model, shows some development of 91L this weekend, after the storm turns north over the open Atlantic. 91L may bring some heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Thursday. 91L will turn to the north on Friday, and is not likely not affect any other land areas. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Oho as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Monday, October 5, 2015. At the time, Oho had winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Oho skirting Hawaii
In the Central Pacific, Hurricane Oho is churning the waters about 300 miles south-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii; Oho was upgraded to a hurricane at 11 am EDT Tuesday, becoming the seventh hurricane of the 2015 season in the North Central Pacific. Oho is headed east-northeast away from Hawaii, and is not expected to bring strong winds or heavy rain to the state; high surf will be the main impact of the storm felt in the islands. In their 11 am Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave no odds that any point in Hawaii would receive tropical storm-force winds.

Typhoon Choi-wan headed towards Northern Japan
In the Western Pacific, massive Typhoon Choi-wan has intensified into a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds, and is expected affect Northern Japan as a strong tropical storm on Thursday.

Bob Henson will have a post this afternoon discussing the excellent performance of the European model for Hurricane Joaquin.

Jeff Masters

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new post Doc!
this El-Nino means business very warm water in the southeast maybe a hurricane in late october!
Well that sucks for me, going to Sarasota October 17, for a weeks vacation.
Really Dreadful stuff in Carolina.
Sad for those affected there.

In the meantime, we had our first "proper" rain this morning after several weeks of Scary dry/hot.
Nearly 3/4" at my house.
Hopefully this bright sun will help dry things out.
Thanks, Doc.
Quoting 5. DurhamWeatherLover:

Hopefully this bright sun will help dry things out.


there is another band just offshore but looks like it is headed south
After looking at the link from the Miami Herald that Jeff provided, I am amazed how the cargo ship El-Faro could have gotten caught in Joaquin. In this day and age with all the communications that must have been available to the ship, how could this have happened?
Repost from end of previous blog...
Well, we made out pretty well over the weekend storms in Myrtle Beach. my rain gauge only holds 5", so after multiple dumps daily, i am guessing 18-20" at my house. I live about 15 minutes to the Longs, SC total of 23.92" so it is totally believable. It was very heavy and persistent, but not the end of the world. Many road closures in this vast swamp and floodplain of the Waccamaw River. Now if Joaquin came blowing in at Cat 4 with it...might not be here typing right now! Glad it went OTS waaayyy to close to the razors edge.
My thoughts and prayers are with the folks who lost loved ones during the onslaught of heavy rains in SC and NC. Also with those in the Bahamas. I wish everyone the best in their recovery efforts. God bless!
Quoting 7. will45:



there is another band just offshore but looks like it is headed south


Will it go inland? It's sunny as can be here in central NC.
Quoting 11. DurhamWeatherLover:



Will it go inland? It's sunny as can be here in central NC.



gonna be close but i think it will just skirt the coast
Jeff oho is up to 75mph has of this AM not 65


Please check the wind speeds be for updating the blog


The GFS shows a strong Tropical Cyclone in the NW Caribbean in about 2-weeks from now. If this does occur then Florida will most likley be affected. As most of you should know, mid to late October is the time of the season that Florida really needs to be on alert. More Hurricanes have struck South Florida in October then in any other month. So this season is not over yet boys. Remember what Yogi Bear said, "Its not over till its over". And don't ask me what Bobo bear said because I don't remember.
just an update on the hail storm that hit las cruces on saturday.....an estimated 25,000 homes were damaged by the storm
Quoting 12. will45:




gonna be close but i think it will just skirt the coast


Hopefully it won't add up to much if it does.
Was thinking about the person the Coast Guard found in the body suit floating in the Atlantic from the ship. The body suit is designed to keep the person afloat but not against hypothermia. This person drowned at the surface because of the pounding relentless wave action, wind, and horizontal rain, and being rolled over and over in the water. This person even if they had their back towards the wind and rain and waves they were sucking in nothing but water instead of air. Never had a chance to catch a breath, just sucking in water from the ocean and wind driven rain.

Can't imagine, horrible death.
Quoting 18. LowerCal:




Don't think I've ever seen a track like this and this far north...EVER
Quoting 18. LowerCal:




Hope it shifts east.

California really needs the rain!
Quoting 19. RitaEvac:



Don't think I've ever seen a track like this and this far north...EVER


I don't understand the "17th hurricane of the season" in the north central pacific...? Is the 13th of the season
JQ really has that "northern hurricane" look to him now.

Quoting 19. RitaEvac:



Don't think I've ever seen a track like this and this far north...EVER


Interesting track, but I've seen quite a few tracks aimed at Canada vs. western U.S.
Quoting 22. FunnelVortex:

JQ really has that "northern hurricane" look to him now.




I always did kind of like the look hurricanes take on in the non-tropical areas of the Atlantic.
Quoting 14. HurriHistory:



The GFS shows a strong Tropical Cyclone in the NW Caribbean in about 2-weeks from now. If this does occur then Florida will most likley be affected. As most of you should know, mid to late October is the time of the season that Florida really needs to be on alert. More Hurricanes have struck South Florida in October then in any other month. So this season is not over yet boys. Remember what Yogi Bear said, "Its not over till its over". And don't ask me what Bobo bear said because I don't remember.
GFS has been showing this at least for the last couple of days at least and i was shot down by a fellow blogger because i post it on here.wow indeed!
Quoting 24. Stoopid1:



I always did kind of like the look hurricanes take on in the non-tropical areas of the Atlantic.


They start to spread out and they can have excellent structure right before they begin to really dissipate.
Quoting 23. Sfloridacat5:



Interesting track, but I've seen quite a few tracks aimed at Canada vs. western U.S.
I don't recall seeing many maintaining a tropical designation north of 40°.
Quoting 18. LowerCal:





you would think that would be picked up by the jetstream and provide moisture to ca.....

Where any of those dams Hydroelectric or newer dams, or was it all old industrial dams for millponds?
Condolences to the Families of the lost ones from the flooding in South and North Carolina.
Quoting 31. Grothar:




pretty interesting hope it does not pan out at all,are there any other model support for this scenario?
Quoting 14. HurriHistory:



The GFS shows a strong Tropical Cyclone in the NW Caribbean in about 2-weeks from now. If this does occur then Florida will most likley be affected. As most of you should know, mid to late October is the time of the season that Florida really needs to be on alert. More Hurricanes have struck South Florida in October then in any other month. So this season is not over yet boys. Remember what Yogi Bear said, "Its not over till its over". And don't ask me what Bobo bear said because I don't remember.
What you are saying is generally true. However, the long-range GFS model graphics you included in your post also clearly depict a strong cold front penetrating deep into Florida. And this demonstrates something that also happens sometimes, a tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean gets shunted off to the NE while it is well south of Florida and then goes across Cuba and/or out to sea because the front and the accompanying trough prevents it from moving further north into Florida.
Quoting 28. ricderr:




you would think that would be picked up by the jetstream and provide moisture to ca.....


... but OR and WA could use some right about now too.
Quoting 27. LowerCal:

I don't recall seeing many maintaining a tropical designation north of 40°.


The last point the discussion has it as post/extra-tropical, so they think it will likely be non-tropical before then. Still, not many storms in the central Pacific maintain hurricane intensity north of 30N as the CPHC has it for now. That would be neat. I think you may like this storm as well; 1975 Pacific Northwest hurricane
Joaquin was a wakeup call for me. The huge 100 year old elm over my house has dropped too many car crushing branches (near misses !) and it's time to take it out even though it has survived Dutch Elm Disease. I wanted one last summer of shade and almost got caught with a severe hazard if Joaquin had come onshore in the Mid Atlantic. So it's coming down today. I'll miss it. My biggest hurricane/derecho/downburst/microburst/icestorm exposure is trees over my 1919 house but the others are healthy.
Thanks dok!
Quoting 22. FunnelVortex:

JQ really has that "northern hurricane" look to him now.




That's the best looking CAT 1 I've ever seen.

Has extra tropical transition started yet?
Quoting 38. 62901IL:



That's the best looking CAT 1 I've ever seen.

Has extra tropical transition started yet?


In the next couple of days it should. It could become an extratropical windstorm in the UK.
Quoting 38. 62901IL:



That's the best looking CAT 1 I've ever seen.

Has extra tropical transition started yet?


Probably the very beginning stages of it, NHC mentioned gradual decaying of the core and some eastward tilt of the vortex
Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 4h4 hours ago
Zero sign of typical trade winds in W/C Pacific as tremendous WWB is ongoing.
Eye or a monsoon gyre?
36. georgevandenberghe
12:28 PM EDT on October 06, 2015

Tough (and very expensive call) for many home owners on whether to take nice trees down because of the potential weather hazard once they are weak because of disease, are already dead, or with limbs and branches extending over the house. Our house is now (after decades of growth) completely under a canopy of oak limbs from the trees surrounding the house and we love it; keeps the house very cool and shady in the summer. We have only cut back limbs growing towards the actual roof a few times but are not taking the canopy or trees down.

A calculated risk (and we have insurance)...................................
Morrissey the Boston
@MJVentrice What's happening to the "blob"? Is it gonna to see it's final days thanks to the nino?

Michael Ventrice ‏
@moztheboston Blob is weakening and with another strong GOA trough to spin up, it will only continue to weaken next few weeks.

Quoting 14. HurriHistory:



The GFS shows a strong Tropical Cyclone in the NW Caribbean in about 2-weeks from now. If this does occur then Florida will most likley be affected. As most of you should know, mid to late October is the time of the season that Florida really needs to be on alert. More Hurricanes have struck South Florida in October then in any other month. So this season is not over yet boys. Remember what Yogi Bear said, "Its not over till its over". And don't ask me what Bobo bear said because I don't remember.

How often has the GFS been accurate two weeks out?
Quoting 33. FLWaterFront:

What you are saying is generally true. However, the long-range GFS model graphics you included in your post also clearly depict a strong cold front penetrating deep into Florida. And this demonstrates something that also happens sometimes, a tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean gets shunted off to the NE while it is well south of Florida and then goes across Cuba and/or out to sea because the front and the accompanying trough prevents it from moving further north into Florida.


Strong front came through right behind Hurricane Wilma. So sometimes the storm can sneak in before the front gets all the way down into the state. But as you mentioned, it looks as if the front has already pushed down into the Florida Straits in that GFS frame.
Quoting 25. knightwarrior41:

GFS has been showing this at least for the last couple of days at least and i was shot down by a fellow blogger because i post it on here.wow indeed!
As pointed out by FLWaterFront, this still doesn't show a tropical cyclone hitting Florida. It shows a powerful cold front all they way down into Key West and out into the Atlantic. There's a large dome of high pressure behind it covering all of eastern North America. If this were to occur, it's virtually impossible for any tropical cyclone to hit Florida. Cuba and the southern Bahamas would be much more likely targets. However, it's the GFS, and the low in the Caribbean is probably a ghost. If you just cycle through the model back from 384 hours, you can see a much weaker low leaping around Mexico and the Caribbean until it goes south from the Yucatan, ending up as a 998 low in the Caribbean. This is not a normal path, and the GFS will often show these ghost lows way out in time. If a low is still shown in the same place at seven days out, it would probably be an invest. Then it might deserve a "wow!".

Quoting 30. weathermanwannabe:

Condolences to the Families of the lost ones from the flooding in South and North Carolina.
Same here Amen.
Quoting 32. knightwarrior41:

pretty interesting hope it does not pan out at all,are there any other model support for this scenario?
Looks like a strong hurricane in S FL
Good evening, and thanks for the new blog entry, doc. Sorry to learn about so many fatalities due to the evil floods.

Joaquin now comes into sight of Eumetsat:

Quoting 43. weathermanwannabe:

36. georgevandenberghe
12:28 PM EDT on October 06, 2015

Tough (and very expensive call) for many home owners on whether to take nice trees down because of the potential weather hazard once they are weak because of disease, are already dead, or with limbs and branches extending over the house. Our house is now (after decades of growth) completely under a canopy of oak limbs from the trees surrounding the house and we love it; keeps the house very cool and shady in the summer. We have only cut back limbs growing towards the actual roof a few times but are not taking the canopy or trees down.

A calculated risk (and we have insurance)...................................

As long as the risk is only to you, I agree, I have a neighbor with a diseased and half dead oak that's well over 100 feet tall. I'm sure it was a magnificent tree in its day. Now, it's a hazard and, because of the prevailing storm winds, it's likely to fall on my house rather than hers. She refuses to take it down, even if I pay for it, because she likes that tree. When it falls, it will hit my bedroom. Her liking the tree and having insurance won't compensate for injury or death to me.
Quoting 8. ednort:

After looking at the link from the Miami Herald that Jeff provided, I am amazed how the cargo ship El-Faro could have gotten caught in Joaquin. In this day and age with all the communications that must have been available to the ship, how could this have happened?

From what ABC News is reporting, the CEO of the company said the captain was aware of the track and strength of Joaquin and had a plan to safely travel around it. They say that it is unclear how long power had been out when they sent the distress call. I've also read that he was trying to beat the storm, it was only moving at 6 mph, but that put him A, into the path, and B, in tropical weather conditions. So IF he tried to beat the storm and the ship died, then Joaquin just ran over them and they couldn't get the ship restarted. But note I said CEO said that, they may be trying to put it all on the captain at this point... NTSB joins investigation today. Hopefully they find survivors today...
Sad to wake up and find no stories of survivors yet...
Quoting 49. Camerooski:

Looks like a strong hurricane in S FL
No, it doesn't. Read posts #33 and 47.
Quoting 52. sar2401:

As long as the risk is only to you, I agree, I have a neighbor with a diseased and half dead oak that's well over 100 feet tall. I'm sure it was a magnificent tree in its day. Now, it's a hazard and, because of the prevailing storm winds, it's likely to fall on my house rather than hers. She refuses to take it down, even if I pay for it, because she likes that tree. When it falls, it will hit my bedroom. Her liking the tree and having insurance won't compensate for injury or death to me.
That's sounds like a 2am chainsaw job to me.

"Gee, no, Miss Pringle... I didn't hear no one with a chainsaw last night. I have no idea what happened."
Quoting 53. RavensFan:


.... But note I said CEO said that, they may be trying to put it all on the captain at this point...

CEO: El Faro responsibility ends with me


Quoting 54. RavensFan:

Sad to wake up and find no stories of survivors yet...



very sad indeed......and it looks like they found a body of one of the crew members
Drying out around here, finally, but haven't seen any sign of the sun yet - low clouds just don't want to let go! ;) Thankfully, no flooding in my immediate neighborhood - we were lucky.

Now that the tropical season seems to be winding down in the Atlantic (mostly), I'm starting to wonder what El Nino will bring our way this winter. Hoping more for some rare snow and no ice! Anyone have a link to an updated winter outlook for the southeast or the U.S. as a whole?
Quoting 36. georgevandenberghe:

Joaquin was a wakeup call for me. The huge 100 year old elm over my house has dropped too many car crushing branches (near misses !) and it's time to take it out even though it has survived Dutch Elm Disease. I wanted one last summer of shade and almost got caught with a severe hazard if Joaquin had come onshore in the Mid Atlantic. So it's coming down today. I'll miss it. My biggest hurricane/derecho/downburst/microburst/icestorm exposure is trees over my 1919 house but the others are healthy.
Make sure you have a nice photo of it first!
Quoting 31. Grothar:






no thank you please
Quoting 57. aquak9:


CEO: El Faro responsibility ends with me



If they had not lost their propulsion there would have been no problem.. they assumed that everything was going to work normal. just tragic...


watch out here
Quoting 53. RavensFan:


From what ABC News is reporting, the CEO of the company said the captain was aware of the track and strength of Joaquin and had a plan to safely travel around it. They say that it is unclear how long power had been out when they sent the distress call. I've also read that he was trying to beat the storm, it was only moving at 6 mph, but that put him A, into the path, and B, in tropical weather conditions. So IF he tried to beat the storm and the ship died, then Joaquin just ran over them and they couldn't get the ship restarted. But note I said CEO said that, they may be trying to put it all on the captain at this point... NTSB joins investigation today. Hopefully they find survivors today...


If that's true then that captain was pretty stupid


here come invest 91L
People haven't learned have they? I remember when people said the season was over before JQ had formed.I'll wait for 11/30/2015
Quoting 53. RavensFan:


From what ABC News is reporting, the CEO of the company said the captain was aware of the track and strength of Joaquin and had a plan to safely travel around it. They say that it is unclear how long power had been out when they sent the distress call. I've also read that he was trying to beat the storm, it was only moving at 6 mph, but that put him A, into the path, and B, in tropical weather conditions. So IF he tried to beat the storm and the ship died, then Joaquin just ran over them and they couldn't get the ship restarted. But note I said CEO said that, they may be trying to put it all on the captain at this point... NTSB joins investigation today. Hopefully they find survivors today...
Time is certaInly starting to run out, at least in terms of continuing the search. Even one survivor would keep it going, but the lack of survivors will cause the formula to kick in, and they will scale back the search. We're now at six days. I don't have a clue what the captain was thinking except that he had a plan. He wasn't sailing blindly into that storm. I believe he thought he could skirt the storm by heading just east of it. The ship must have had power until at least very early Thursday. According to the mother, that's when she received the last email from her daughter, a crew member on the ship. Apparently, the last communication was at 0730, saying the ship had lost power, was taking on water, the ship had developed a 15 degree list, they were pumping it out, and the situation was "manageable".

Without seeing a time stamped transcript, all this is coming from the media, so I don't know how accurate it is. Nevertheless, from my experience at sea, I wouldn't call this manageable. The pumps must have been self powered or running off the ship's emergency generator. Whatever lighting and communications they had must have been using either the emergency generator or batteries. They must have been taking a pounding even then. Water was getting into the hull from somewhere. The captain should have known that an emergency generator, if they had one, was not likely to last long in those seas. The company has at least three salvage tugs, and they are in the area participating in the search. If it was me, I would have requested an immediate tow from the tugs and a Coast Guard standby. Given the conditions at the time, either one would have been difficult. I have yet to read if the ship set off an ELT or if any crew member set off their own EPIRB. Either one or both should have happened if the vessel went to abandon ship condition, and both of those are independent of ship power. As usual in these circumstances, I end up with a lot more questions than answers. Not being part of the search, I won't get those answers either. I'm baffled as to why the captain chose the route he apparently did and took the actions he apparently did. We will probably never know the answers to that. For now, I'm still hoping for survivors.
Quoting 52. sar2401:

As long as the risk is only to you, I agree, I have a neighbor with a diseased and half dead oak that's well over 100 feet tall. I'm sure it was a magnificent tree in its day. Now, it's a hazard and, because of the prevailing storm winds, it's likely to fall on my house rather than hers. She refuses to take it down, even if I pay for it, because she likes that tree. When it falls, it will hit my bedroom. Her liking the tree and having insurance won't compensate for injury or death to me.


I would think you could talk to the county and if you can get a an insurance company to back you they might order her to have the tree removed. All you or your insurance company should have to do is show the risk involved in keeping that old diseased tree around for the next storm.
Quoting 42. Gearsts:

Eye or a monsoon gyre?


Where's the monsoon?
Quoting 52. sar2401:

As long as the risk is only to you, I agree, I have a neighbor with a diseased and half dead oak that's well over 100 feet tall. I'm sure it was a magnificent tree in its day. Now, it's a hazard and, because of the prevailing storm winds, it's likely to fall on my house rather than hers. She refuses to take it down, even if I pay for it, because she likes that tree. When it falls, it will hit my bedroom. Her liking the tree and having insurance won't compensate for injury or death to me.


I would think you could get the county to order her to have that tree removed if you can prove it's a risk to you and your house. Maybe your insurance company would help in the matter. Cities and counties are trimming trees all the time to keep them from taking out power lines during storms so I don't see why someone's life or damage to their house wouldn't fall under some ordinance that says she has to take the old, diseased tree down.
Quoting 63. hurricanes2018:



watch out here
how about showing a future 16 day model for the stock market
Quoting 56. aquak9:

That's sounds like a 2am chainsaw job to me.

"Gee, no, Miss Pringle... I didn't hear no one with a chainsaw last night. I have no idea what happened."
LOL. Knowing my skill with a chainsaw, I'd end up putting it into the house anyway. My lawyer has sent her a certified letter letting her know of the hazard and consequences. She won't tell me who her insurance company is so we can send them a letter. My only other alternative is to sue her for removal. She's a very nice 88 year old church lady with roots that go back to 1830 here. I'm a mean Yankee who's lived here 10 years. He thinks my chances for success are nil. :-)
Quoting 66. Grothar:


Could be something to watch here in S. FL
Quoting 67. washingtonian115:

People haven't learned have they? I remember when people said the season was over before JQ had formed.I'll wait for 11/30/2015
Better 12/31/2015. You never know it might very well happen.
Quoting 70. 69Viking:



I would think you could talk to the county and if you can get a an insurance company to back you they might order her to have the tree removed. All you or your insurance company should have to do is show the risk involved in keeping that old diseased tree around for the next storm.
I live in the city, and there aren't any ordinances about dead trees unless they affect city property. My lawyer and insurance company have both sent her letters. She refuses to tell me her insurance company. It's a civil case, and my only real option is to take her to court. She's a nice 88 year old church lady with roots going back to 1830 here. I'm a mean Yankee who's lived here 10 years. He thinks my chances of success are nil. I tend to agree. :-)
Never mind, WU is broken again....
Quoting 75. Camerooski:

Could be something to watch here in S. FL


That's two weeks out and on an experimental model. So no.
Quoting 31. Grothar:






Fifteen day forecasts and you won't buy green bananas?
Quoting 70. 69Viking:



I would think you could talk to the county and if you can get a an insurance company to back you they might order her to have the tree removed. All you or your insurance company should have to do is show the risk involved in keeping that old diseased tree around for the next storm.




Unfortunately, tree removal can quickly become ruinously expensive. Most homeowner's insurance companies advise their policyholders against attempting to cut down or trim large trees without the help of a professional tree removal service. If you need to take down an old tree that features a massive crown and twisted root structure, you might need to lay out as much as $5,000 to ensure that the job is done properly.
To make matters worse, your homeowner's insurance company won't pay to remove a hazardous tree from your property. Under the terms of most homeowner's insurance policies, homeowners are required to perform any maintenance work that's necessary to prevent significant damage to their homes. This provision is often sweeping. In fact, homeowner's insurance companies interpret it to cover routine maintenance tasks like storm-proofing windows as well as more complicated jobs like removing potentially dangerous trees.


Law Dictionary: Will Homeowner's Insurance Pay to Remove a Hazardous Tree?
Quoting 45. PCCfan:


How often has the GFS been accurate two weeks out?
Rarely, but it keeps people entertained.
Quoting 77. sar2401:

I live in the city, and there aren't any ordinances about dead trees unless they affect city property. My lawyer and insurance company have both sent her letters. She refuses to tell me her insurance company. It's a civil case, and my only real option is to take her to court. She's a nice 88 year old church lady with roots going back to 1830 here. I'm a mean Yankee who's lived here 10 years. He thinks my chances of success are nil. I tend to agree. :-)


It's a bummer you can't find out who her insurance company is through Public Records.


Looking good near 40N, it's definitely a fighter.
.
Report from Summerville/Jedburg (Mailing address Summerville, but closer to Jedburg than to the Town of Summerville), Dorchester County, SC. Berkeley, Charleston and Dorchester comprise the Tri-county are and share many of the same benefits and problems.

Rain has stopped. In fact, I did not even measure last night. So final totals from Fri afternoon to Mon afternoon, about 24" in my back yard. Without our Carolina Panther bucket rain collection system, I would not have realized we received so much rain (Keep Pounding - can you say 4-0). However, when you take the exit out of our neighborhood to Hwy 78, you can only turn right. To the left, that portion of Hwy 78 is closed.

Dorchester 2 is still deciding on school tomorrow. The high school was the nearest shelter and has gone from 100 people over the weekend to 15 people last night. Hopefully the shelter will not be needed tonight and the school can open for students tomorrow. I have not heard of any damage to the schools and I think I would have. Although, they may still be inspecting the buildings and grounds for all I know. The major problem for the schools, may be picking up the kiddos. Generally, if the buses cannot run, school is called off. (We saw this with the ice storm last winter). As of this morning when I checked, there were still 72 roads listed as closed in Dorchester County, It is really a mix of closures, sink holes and impassables. Many of these are in Dorchester 2 District. I have seen no new reports of evacuations except along the Edisto River, which has crested.

Displaced fire ant colonies have been reported. These can be quite large. Still under Flood Warning. Scammers showing up.

Looking forward to drying out. Thoughts and prayers for the folks in the Carolinas that did not fare as well as we did.
86. Famoguy1234


i would edit that stoopid remark if i was you
Another interesting dispute between GFS and ECMWF: The former rushes Ex-Joaquin to Ireland where the storm should stall a whole day and then head straight south to the northern coast of Spain. The latter makes Ex-Joaquin avoiding Ireland and sends a weaker storm on a much more southern track right into the northern coast of Portugal.

GFS 12z, 120 hours out:


Euro 12z, 120 hours out:

Source: tropicaltidbits.com
Quoting 83. 69Viking:



It's a bummer you can't find out who her insurance company is through Public Records.
She owns the house free and clear so no public records on a mortgage. I really like MIss Iris, but she's a stubborn old cuss when it comes to that tree. I even hired an arborist to have a look at it but she won't let him on her property. I guess there are times you just have to live with some risk. I do sleep in the back bedroom when there's a bad storm, just in case, since that tree is coming right into the front bedroom.
Quoting 69. sar2401:

Time is certaInly starting to run out, at least in terms of continuing the search. Even one survivor would keep it going, but the lack of survivors will cause the formula to kick in, and they will scale back the search. We're now at six days. ... For now, I'm still hoping for survivors.


I appreciate all the experienced views on this. I am a total landlubber and this blog has provided real insight. The first I heard of El Faro was realtime on this board.

I imagine that when they find her, they will piece together from the debris field that she capsized. That the radio report stated that conditions were "manageable" suggests overconfidence. Listing, taking on more water, no power, near the eye of a very slow moving Cat4. I expect they could have gone from upright to upside down in a time window that allowed no final message. The whole thing freaks me out.
Quoting 52. sar2401:

As long as the risk is only to you, I agree, I have a neighbor with a diseased and half dead oak that's well over 100 feet tall. I'm sure it was a magnificent tree in its day. Now, it's a hazard and, because of the prevailing storm winds, it's likely to fall on my house rather than hers. She refuses to take it down, even if I pay for it, because she likes that tree. When it falls, it will hit my bedroom. Her liking the tree and having insurance won't compensate for injury or death to me.


Put her on notice that the tree is a hazard (via certified mail). Also notify her homeowners insurance company. She has liability exposure as long as she is aware of the issue. That may force her hand. Her insurance company may require her to remove the tree or they will non-renew her policy. If there are branches overhanging your property line, you can have those removed. Your property line runs up to the sky. Any overhanging branches are your responsibility. the diseased tree is her responsibility. Make sure she is on notice that the tree is a hazard. That's your best play.
I give up...
Quoting 87. SC29483:

Report from Summerville/Jedburg (Mailing address Summerville, but closer to Jedburg than to the Town of Summerville), Dorchester County, SC. Berkeley, Charleston and Dorchester comprise the Tri-county are and share many of the same benefits and problems.

Rain has stopped. In fact, I did not even measure last night. So final totals from Fri afternoon to Mon afternoon, about 24" in my back yard. Without our Carolina Panther bucket rain collection system, I would not have realized we received so much rain (Keep Pounding - can you say 4-0). However, when you take the exit out of our neighborhood to Hwy 78, you can only turn right. To the left, that portion of Hwy 78 is closed.

Dorchester 2 is still deciding on school tomorrow. The high school was the nearest shelter and has gone from 100 people over the weekend to 15 people last night. Hopefully the shelter will not be needed tonight and the school can open for students tomorrow. I have not heard of any damage to the schools and I think I would have. Although, they may still be inspecting the buildings and grounds for all I know. The major problem for the schools, may be picking up the kiddos. Generally, if the buses cannot run, school is called off. (We saw this with the ice storm last winter). As of this morning when I checked, there were still 72 roads listed as closed in Dorchester County, It is really a mix of closures, sink holes and impassables. Many of these are in Dorchester 2 District. I have seen no new reports of evacuations except along the Edisto River, which has crested.

Displaced fire ant colonies have been reported. These can be quite large.

Looking forward to drying out. Thoughts and prayers for the folks in the Carolinas that did not fare as well as we did.


Well, here's the rub.... They won't just open a school here and a school there in the district. Either the entire district will be open, or none of it. Also, teachers are WAY behind, so it wouldn't surprise me if Charleston, Dorchester and Berkeley remained close to students for the remainder of the week, while staff will report to work to get prepared to start anew the following week.
WU broken?
Gyre
Quoting 92. BobinTampa:



Put her on notice that the tree is a hazard (via certified mail). Also notify her homeowners insurance company. She has liability exposure as long as she is aware of the issue. That may force her hand. Her insurance company may require her to remove the tree or they will non-renew her policy. If there are branches overhanging your property line, you can have those removed. Your property line runs up to the sky. Any overhanging branches are your responsibility. the diseased tree is her responsibility. Make sure she is on notice that the tree is a hazard. That's your best play.


I agree with this too, go to your property line and look up. Any branches hanging over your property line can be cut at the property line and removed so they don't fall on your roof during a storm.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The WU Site is very slow to update today, serious lag in when I make a post and it actually appears!
Quoting 94. nash36:



Well, here's the rub.... They won't just open a school here and a school there in the district. Either the entire district will be open, or none of it. Also, teachers are WAY behind, so it wouldn't surprise me if Charleston, Dorchester and Berkeley remained close to students for the remainder of the week, while staff will report to work to get prepared to start anew the following week.

Yes, you are right. Schools keep the same schedule, so if one school is closed in a school district, they all are closed. Berkeley announced they are closed and I think Charleston County said they will open.
Kids are getting antsy, but at least they can go out now. With the road closures, I just can't imagine the buses trying to do pick-ups. I am thinking that as roads are evaluated many will be re-opened - but still, so many road closures. And we are still under Flood Warning.

Scammers showing up, so folks beware. According to twitter reports (unconfirmed), there are people pretending to be official, knocking on doors and telling residents they need to evacuate. And there are always folks scamming as contractors. If someone is asking for money up front... not a good idea.

Quoting 80. nrtiwlnvragn:



Fifteen day forecasts and you won't buy green bananas?
This long range forecast is only showing the way the pattern could setup into the middle to late October period. Hurricanes are and will continue to be a problem for Florida in October. This model is showing what might happen in a couple weeks, so just be prepared in case it happens.
Quoting 84. JLPR2:



Looking good near 40N, it's definitely a fighter.


That's how every healthy storm looks like near 40N.

Above 40N they tend to turn into this "Semi-Circle" TS with all the clouds on the northern half before undergoing ET transition.
I bet the Doc is going to explain the model accuracy between the ECMWF and the GFS :)
.
Quoting 99. 69Viking:

The WU Site is very slow to update today, serious lag in when I make a post and it actually appears!
This place is a wreck today. Three instances of the new blog and now they have all been removed. Maybe they'll hire some actual professionals someday...
Quoting 105. sar2401:

This place is a wreck today. Three instances of the new blog and now they have all been removed. Maybe they'll hire some actual professionals someday...


We'll suit you up Sar in some WU gear and give you the controls to man the site. You and wunder dog would be a great combination.
I read the new blog before it was removed. It was really interesting and informative LOL
2015 National Geographic Photo Contest


Jaw-dropping, rare anti-cyclonic tornado tracks in open farmland narrowly
missing a home near Simla, Colorado, on June 5, 2015


Why am I BANNED FROM THIS SITE!
Arizona getting rocked today!

Hi, all. Many apologies for the slow response times today, which led to the multiple postings of the Joaquin blog. It's still there--but just not appearing on the index page.

Why Did the ECMWF Model Predict Joaquin So Well?

If any of you keep tabs on the article URLs, tomorrow's post will end with /entrynum=3148 because of today's duplicate entries. It should appear on the index page per usual.

Please keep the comment thread going wherever you like--here or on the new post--whatever seems to work best. Again, my apologies!

--Bob
Is this still working? I clicked on the Doc's new entry but it came up with a blank page saying the entry has been removed.
Have tried several times to comment... could not.

Any updates on the flooding in SC?
Quoting 108. rayduray2013:

2015 National Geographic Photo Contest


Jaw-dropping, rare anti-cyclonic tornado tracks in open farmland narrowly missing a home near
 Simla, Colorado, on June 5, 2015



I do believe that shot spent some time in photo enhancing software however. Not that this will ever post.
2nd time to post here for updates on SC and NC for info. I heard that another dam broke today....... any info please....
Quoting 107. SunnyDaysFla:

I read the new blog before it was removed. It was really interesting and informative LOL


I don't think I can wrap my head around something small as a cumulus cloud affecting the track of something huge like a hurricane.
Quoting 108. rayduray2013:

2015 National Geographic Photo Contest


Jaw-dropping, rare anti-cyclonic tornado tracks in open farmland narrowly missing a home near
 Simla, Colorado, on June 5, 2015





That's real?

It looks like one of those "disaster movie" tornadoes.
Quoting 108. rayduray2013:

2015 National Geographic Photo Contest


Jaw-dropping, rare anti-cyclonic tornado tracks in open farmland narrowly missing a home near
 Simla, Colorado, on June 5, 2015



Looks nasty..Saw one like that in the 70,s...on tv thank goodness.
I guess the blog has experienced a hiccup.
Here's what I get when I try to click the link Bob posted.

Error!

There was a problem opening this user's Wunder Blog files. Please try again later or check the requested URL.
Gro man! The GFS 06z ensemble 20 at 378 shows nothing near FL.

My point: It's 378 hours!! I've learned from your posts, your insight. But 378 hours man! I hold you to a higher standard than that.

MT



Quoting 117. FunnelVortex:



That's real?

It looks like one of those "disaster movie" tornadoes.


Here are a couple of video's for your viewing pleasure.

This one in Australia

And this one in North Dakota.
Quoting 111. BobHenson:

Hi, all. Many apologies for the slow response times today, which led to the multiple postings of the Joaquin blog. It's still there--but just not appearing on the index page.

Why Did the ECMWF Model Predict Joaquin So Well?

If any of you keep tabs on the article URLs, tomorrow's post will end with /entrynum=3148 because of today's duplicate entries. It should appear on the index page per usual.

Please keep the comment thread going wherever you like--here or on the new post--whatever seems to work best. Again, my apologies!

--Bob
That link doesn't work either. What a mess.

quoting 111. BobHenson (Admin)

Hi, all. Many apologies for the slow response times today, which led to the multiple postings of the Joaquin blog. It's still there--but just not appearing on the index page.

Why Did the ECMWF Model Predict Joaquin So Well?
{snip}


This link doesn't work....

Quoting 92. BobinTampa:



Put her on notice that the tree is a hazard (via certified mail). Also notify her homeowners insurance company. She has liability exposure as long as she is aware of the issue. That may force her hand. Her insurance company may require her to remove the tree or they will non-renew her policy. If there are branches overhanging your property line, you can have those removed. Your property line runs up to the sky. Any overhanging branches are your responsibility. the diseased tree is her responsibility. Make sure she is on notice that the tree is a hazard. That's your best play.i was told by my insurance agent, who is also a close friend, that a neighbor having a tree fall on MY house falls under MY insurance complete with having me having to cover the deductible. This is Allstate on the ms coast. I'd read your policy thoroughly.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The Joaquin blog has been moved to its new permanent home:


Why Did the ECMWF Forecast Joaquin So Well?


It's also showing up on the main blog page now, so hopefully all is well. Our folks are also working on the delay in posting comments this afternoon. We really appreciate your patience as we get this resolved!

Thanks,
Bob
Quoting 122. MonsterTrough:

Gro man! The GFS 06z ensemble 20 at 378 shows nothing near FL.

My point: It's 378 hours!! I've learned from your posts, your insight. But 378 hours man! I hold you to a higher standard than that.

MT






Nothing at 378 - but what about 384? Sarcasm flag on.
Quoting 122. MonsterTrough:

Gro man! The GFS 06z ensemble 20 at 378 shows nothing near FL.

My point: It's 378 hours!! I've learned from your posts, your insight. But 378 hours man! I hold you to a higher standard than that.

MT






Can't wait for what it says at 384 hours...
Quoting 123. StAugustineFL:



Here are a couple of video's for your viewing pleasure.

This one in Australia

And this one in North Dakota.


That Australian one is 100% fake.
Quoting 123. StAugustineFL:



Here are a couple of video's for your viewing pleasure.

This one in Australia

And this one in North Dakota.


Well the Australian one is actually a dust devil.
Quoting 121. 69Viking:

Here's what I get when I try to click the link Bob posted.

Error!

There was a problem opening this user's Wunder Blog files. Please try again later or check the requested URL.



This one is half working for me. I can read the entry, but I can't plus it, nor can I leave comments. Unless the comments are taking an eternity to load.
The reason that tornado looks so nasty is it's picking up dirt from the barren farm land and pulling up into the column, pretty cool image and having grown up in SE Minnesota (Farm Country) I have no doubt that image is real.
I have seen this a couple times today but I just dont see it....alot of things would have to change in this part of the caribbean for anything to get this organized...its just lacking moisture bigtime...

Quoting 75. Camerooski:

Could be something to watch here in S. FL
Quoting 116. FunnelVortex:



I don't think I can wrap my head around something small as a cumulus cloud affecting the track of something huge like a hurricane.


And when the butterfly flapped its wings......

Quoting 19. RitaEvac:



Don't think I've ever seen a track like this and this far north...EVER
Same here. I live in Oregon so this is of interest. Reminds me of that old Dottie Parker line: "What kind of Fresh Hell is this?" :)

Quoting 109. JustPlantIt:

Why am I BANNED FROM THIS SITE!
How can you be posting if you are banned?

Quoting 114. sar2401:

I do believe that shot spent some time in photo enhancing software however. Not that this will ever post.
SAR,

You're right to be skeptical. But this is, after all, a National Geographic photo contest and the use of Photoshop would, I'd think, be strictly prohibited. Unless Rupert Murdoch has already lowered Nat Geo's standards to match those of his other odious properties.

Quoting 117. FunnelVortex:



That's real?

It looks like one of those "disaster movie" tornadoes.
I believe it to be real. The mechanism is that the twister is passing over a freshly plowed field with low moisture content. This very much enhances our ability to see the structure of the wind vortex. I think it's a wonder serendipity that this all came together, and missed the farmhouse. Lucky family there. :)

Quoting 123. StAugustineFL:



Here are a couple of video's for your viewing pleasure.

This one in Australia

And this one in North Dakota.
Thanks. Out here in the West we often get something similar in our dust devils. Biggest one I ever saw was just below a glacier on the E side of Mt. Hood. The dust devil was about 1/4 mile in diameter and with the morning's thermals rose to about 5,000 feet above source level. I'm glad I was upwind of it.

See more dust devils here.
Does this one work?
No, apparently not....
Well, this is certainly one way to get rid of trolls
Quoting 145. sar2401:

Well, this is certainly one way to get rid of trolls


testing, 1,2,3,
147. vis0

Quoting 146. PedleyCA:



testing, 1,2,3,
1, 2, squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeelchhhhhh!!! 3148
(its human to err, its conscientious to correct)