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Carolina disturbance still near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:29 PM GMT on August 17, 2006

The low pressure system centered about 100 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina remains very close to tropical depression strength. Winds this morning at the buoy 47 miles southeast of Charleston, SC have been about 25 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Sustained winds of 30 mph and a closed circulation at the surface are required before NHC will classify a system as a tropical depression. The storm does have a well-defined closed circulation, but only one area of intense thunderstorms, on the south side of the circulation. Strong upper level winds from the north are creating about 20 knots of winds shear over it, and pushing all the thunderstorm activity to the south side.

Long range radar animation out of Charleston, SC shows a big blob of precipitation, but not much organization to this system--little spiral banding is evident. The appearance on satellite imagery has improved some this morning, perhaps because the system is drifting southwestward over slightly warmer waters. There is still about a six hour window for this storm to become a tropical depression. However, wind shear is expected to increase rapidly to over 100 knots by tonight, which will surely destroy the storm. The remains may brings heavy rain to Georgia, northern Florida, and South Carolina Friday, but significant damage from this system is very unlikely. The Hurricane Hunters are on the schedule to go investigate the storm this afternoon, but I expect that this mission will be cancelled.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Charleston, SC.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss. If you missed it, my discussion of the outlook for the remainder of August was posted yesterday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey Y'all!
Hey 1900...hot enough?
Haha ya that would be tough
NHC doesn't expect 93L to be around that long. No suprises there. What happened to 150 kt wind shear? Or was it kilomiters?
Too hot! My school has multiple buildings, and I have to travel to a different building every class period, some across the entire campus...
I think the 100+kt winds that were to come into the SC/NC area are going to get highjacked by the high in the MW..looking at the models, it appears to grab the stream and shoot it SW back into Mexico.
..old school..Neutercanes
I'm trying to figure out if it's going to rain near Daytona tonight so I know whether I'm playing tennis or not! Can someone help me?
I found a new image site with unlimited bandwith, I would like to know if the photo below is visible or broken.

513. AndyN
Check the wave coming off Africa; Getting it's act together:
Link
Posted By: 1900hurricane at 8:27 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
[...]What happened to 150 kt wind shear? Or was it kilomiters?

From Jeff Master's previous blog:
A trough swinging off the East Coast today is expected to drag a filament of very strong jet stream winds southwards to Florida by Thursday night. These jet stream winds are forecast by both the GFS and NAM models to bring 100-150 knots of wind shear over the disturbance, which will easily tear it apart.

Such a strong upper-level jetstream is unusual for Florida even in the winter, and almost unheard of in the summer. I don't expect that to verify.
it is hot 1900.... we are going to new braunfels this weekend, jump in that cold guadalupe river water....
AndyN: How many times have we said that this year?
: )
AndyN,

Lets see if it can persist for 24hrs, remember 94L.....
Hey Chicklit...I just read the forecast and its calling for scattered thunderstorms and rain showers all evening. Radar looks a lot better than the forecast.
and i am lying, i dont jump in that river, i walk in slowly, lol..
AndyN, don't use the SSD images; they update every 6 hours(!); instead, use these images (every hour and they cover a much larger area).
Daytona forcast from NOAA

This Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. East northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...DEEPER MOISTURE PRODUCED A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS
TODAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
STEERING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS QUITE WEAK SO AS SHOWERS GREW INTO
LIGHTNING STORMS...MOVEMENT BECAME MORE ERRATIC...DRIVEN MORE BY
PROPAGATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BIT SUPRISED HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS...ESP OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...BUT STRONG
HEATING AND BOUNDARIES APPROACHING FROM BOTH EAST AND WEST SHOULD
SPARK SOME STRONG STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS THERE.

522. AndyN
Lots...But I beleive with the Westerlies calming down and Easterlies starting to take over....conditions seem to be changing right before I very own eyes(no pun intended)....
Different perspective of African Wave

I'm just about to jump into any body of water now, no matter what it is...
1900 Have you ever been? guadalupe river?? great place to go to cool off and have a great time.
526. AndyN
MichaelSTL: Thx....Wave looks interesting with that view, check out last frame....
Thanks, guys and gals.
Can't say I have...
High
530. AndyN
Look at the last frame 1900hurricane and tell me what you think?.....Link
convection has refired further east

what are you looking for it to do?
Levi gave me the link to the Meteosat-8 images that update hourly; SSD can only give out 6 hourly updates because of restrictions.
..er just an observation..but has anyone seen the Tampa Long range 248nm radar animated loop?..
535. AndyN
It's so hot here, I saw a bird getting a worm out of the ground and he was using a pot holder.
I can see a 30kt string, but not 100+
NW Caribbean
According to 500mb geopotential height imagery and Water Vapor Imagery, an ill-define upper level trough extends from Central Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea. A cutoff low might form along the trough, due to the effect of a high pressure ridge over continental USA, and move towards the Yucatan Peninsula, in 60hrs.
ok....whew....was worried there for a moment :-)
Do you have a link Patrap?
..using wundergound regional radars..click away
50kt at most.
The wave looks ok, but is centered unusually far south (about 7 N). GFS makes something out of it, though. It's definately a player.
544. AndyN
I noticed last night GFS took to a cyclone at 144 hrs, but that is way out in Voodoo land
but even on the navy site..there's not alot of moisture to it jp....
SWLAStorm wrote: Oreo, on the afternoon after the night and early morning that Rita hit us, my brother and I ventured down south of town (Lake Charles). The surge had made it approx. two miles south of the airport. Hard to believe that the gulf had come that far up.

We live in south Lake Charles and sat Rita out in Dallas with family. Thought our home would be filled with swimming redfish. Neighborhood and home got hammered but we didn't become beach and were very lucky compared to many.
andy....and if the gfs had it's way....we'd have more storms than last year...
549. AndyN
Oh I know...GFS develops everything it seems
hey, what have you guys done to randrewl, haven't heard a peep all day, i'm sitting down here doing a rain dance waiting for 93l to bring us some wet stuff, and he is not helping at all...............jo
Hey Patrap

We got pounded a little while ago for about 45 minutes but its stopped for the time being. Still looks cloudy out there especially to the NE (I'm in Clearwater). Yesterday on my ride home from work it came down like a monsoon hit us. 6 fire trucks from various stations passed me by in the space of 30 minutes. I got drenched walking 50 ft from my car to my daughter's school. On the roads in Tarpon Springs the water was coming up to the bottom of my car. For those that are hot and dry...please, come here and get some of this. My daughter and I were so cold in the car last night from being wet I actually had to put the heat on in my car. :) We'll see what tonight brings.
Ya, it is a long way out. This particular GFS goes out a LONG way...
The GFS has been correct almost all the time in the East Pacific this year... it just doesn't work in the Atlantic.
Hobe

you've got mail
We could use some rain too; 93L looks like the incredibly shrinking blob...
5 PM advisory Hector stregnthened to a 90 MPH Hurricane
Actually, the GFS has been pretty accurate this year. It has refused to develop any of the blobs we have discussed on here and so far it has been dead on.
93 L could be a good rainmaker but not much else...
now possibly a cat 2 for Hector
A cutoff low might form along the trough, due to the effect of a high pressure ridge over continental USA, and move towards the Yucatan Peninsula, in 60hrs.
Is this the storm that one model had going toward Louisiana?
1900, I had to step out for a minute. I just checked out your "different perspective on African waves". Feel like I'm at a rave...somebody get me a glass of water.
true jp...but i don't think the timing is right with this one...and with the way it's going..you'll be lucky to see anything from it
..sounds wet & wild flwatergal..nice area there.Keep ya rain gear handy!
GFS is going nuts in the E Pac. Hopefully that means it keep down the Atlantci storms.
Hey guys. I am home from work. So, has 93L been blown to bits or is it still saying "screw you NHC and Dr. Masters, I'm here! Whatcha gonna do about it??" :-)
Hector
Looks impressive
Sat loop good at showing CDOs

Link
Speaking of the Guadalupe river..it is extremely low with the drought..looks like a swamp..and the Comal isn't faring much better with about a two to three feet drop from normal levels.
Rainbow Loop

Link
obs a NDBC buoy 42003 260nm South of Panama city Air Temp.78.1 water temp 85.8 dewpoint 71.8 heat index,only80.4 pressure steady @29.96 Winds 13.6 gust to17.5 outta the Se..Must be raining pretty good there.
now that's what a hurricane looks like. still just a touch asymetrical but impressive.
Plain old IR loop

Link
NWS Needs to Put a Doppler grid out in the GOM and Carrib...
san antonio is it really that bad, we arent going to toob or anything, just go to Hueco Falls and sit for the day
Yeah, Man.. I got it. There is a hurricane in The EPac... What about the atlantic? Anything new out there?
hey is it me or dos the new runs take 93L in to TX
what's left of 093L
Taz, nobody seems to think there will be anything left of 93 where ever it going.
Does this weather pattern Seem El Nino-ish?
By the way, my blog has information on the drought (which is not just where I am).
The new runs do take 93L (or whatever is left of it) into TX late in the period. I think the biggest debate though is what will be the strength of 93L once it hits and crosses FL.
Robinvtx

Last week we were there and there wasn't much. We go to the church camp just above Hueco Falls (Slumber Falls) from time to time. Have fun and go to Greune for me!
What do the conditions for the GOM look like for 93, if and when it goes across Fl?
didnt understand wasnt much??? water?? i have a friend from high school coming from fort myers, we have been trying to do this for 2 yrs, but guess what!!! due to hurricanes, this is the 1st august we can get together. anyway have not seen her for 25 yrs and i want to take her there. think it is worth it. again we are just going to sit at the falls(if there is a falls) and party and get a tan....
Central Pacific Hurricane?

Link
oreodog i know the church you are talking about. right where it is. so what do u think ? worth going at all?


somebody wanna tell me what the hades this is north of hisp and PR???

A SURFACE HIGH??? LOL


thelmores saw that is it gonna hit s. fl. on Monday rain chances go up on 50%
Thelmores...that's the Rorshack cloud blob. I see lots of faces in anguish. How 'bout you?
oreodog i just went to the rockin r website, the release from the lake is 54 CFS. i have never seen it that low. is there even any water in the river?? lol.. i think we might ought to rethink it. but yes Gruene would be good place to visit
Definitely go -- the number of tubers is down because the level is down. You will probably have one of the clearest, less-congested visits in a while! Have a Bock or two for me -- I have to work.
600. AndyN
I always see negative requirements in Recon for the Pacific. Do they never fly into a Hurricane in the Pacific?
Doesn't look like much on IR...

Link
i think you are right. no toobers, way to go. course my son sits at end of the falls with kayak and gathers beers floating by. last year Labor day by sat eve, he had collected 2 cases. lol.. sorry u gotta work
603. AndyN
Disregard, clicked on wrong area....
They last time they flew into an East Pacific storm was in Hurricane Adrian in 2005 (you can still see the last recon observation). They only fly into storms that threaten land (although not all, as there were a few this year).
An enterprising lad! Sitting in the Guad with a Bock, air temp 102, water temp 68, going to Greune Hall to hear Charlie Robison, doesn't get much better -- (I don't know who's playing there this weekend).
Remember this game? Lets count the ULLs!

Link
607. AndyN
The ULLS's look a bit further North now
swlaaggie

Oh well, you sent no love storms today. That's alright.

swlastorm

Glad ya'll made it through Rita. Every time I go to BR, I pass the sea of blue (tarps).
609. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 172109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT
FORM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA


The hurricane center should just give up on this system because it won't develop again.

They should shift their attention to West Africa and the Eastern Atlantic this weekend as some Tropical Cyclone formation will take place there.
Not sure wtf that is thelmores... Looks like a ULL...anticyclone??!?!
Oreo...I wonder if you saw any of the ones I put up? That was a money making deal. Insurance paid a premium for that in order to prevent further damage.

I told my wife I would meet her up in Shreveport at my brother's a day or two after the storm. (I stayed for the storm) I just couldn't pass up the $$$, it was outrageous. It was hot and miserable but it was worth it.
Yeah, ULLs are pissing me off... The NHC's prediction for this year has got to be the biggest prediction flop they've had in a while... Well, Asside from last year having only 15 storms...
It is really bad actually..I've never seen the river the way it was. The Comal and camp area around it are still looking nice, but the river is just so incredibly low, so kinda ruins the experience..I personally wouldn't go eat or anything by the guadalupe because the trash has built up and I don't think it's really moving that fast.
For those who missed it earlier, the GFS is showing something fishy with the african wave

Link
HELLO EVERYONE,
Local met. Paul Delagato, just said that he is watching the blob in the GOM, for development!
Any thoughts?
Caneman wishes death and wind shear on this tropical blob and any blob for that matter!
The hurricane center should just give up on this system because it won't develop again

Maybe the next TWO will have this:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NOVEMBER 30.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST TWO ISSUED UNTIL JUNE 1.

LOL!
mermaid -- where you at?
1900, how do you like the little stairsteps it makes. It shows 992 off Fl coast. What does 992 usually translate into as far as intensity?
Link

Updated blog
Mermaid...what is local for you?
"THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. "

rofl!!! give it a rest TPC...... UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALREADY became unfavorable!!!

geez..... i feel detached from the "real" world sometimes!!

but my guinness thereapy is working! ;)
Wave to watch

Link
Still...it looks very far south, only about 7 N
Ya, the stairsteps

This GFS doesn't go out as far, so it looks like it would definately head into the carribean...
I am north of Tampa Fl.
Nothing is developing near africa guys. Nothing. Wait untill September... We might get 1 Cane this year... lol
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 9:30 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
1900, how do you like the little stairsteps it makes. It shows 992 off Fl coast. What does 992 usually translate into as far as intensity?


The actual pressure is a lot lower than 992 mb because maps cannot show the extremely small area of lowest pressure in a storm - except for the GFDL (since it has a much higher resolution; the GFS has a resolution of 1/2 degree, which is about 35 miles at the Equator - the lowest pressure in a storm is in its eye, which is also where most of the pressure drop is). A good example is Hurricane Hector (GFS), currently pusing Cat 2. If you just look at the SLP map, it looks like a 1004 mb tropical storm, not a 80 kt, 975 mb hurricane.
apparently one model develops a closed low in the gulf but i don't know if i'd believe that. anything that did form would probably head west along the bottom of the big ridge of heat.
Ya, GFS brings it straight across.
Evening gentlemen, etc.

Posted By: thelmores at 9:17 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
somebody wanna tell me what the hades this is north of hisp and PR???

I think it might be that dougnut Gulf had with his coffee yesterday! :)
THX STL
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 9:36 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
Nothing is developing near africa guys. Nothing. Wait untill September... We might get 1 Cane this year... lol

...or we could get this many canes
So a 992 storm on GFS could be a Cat. 3?!
New GFS is currently running

New GFS

Last GFS
635. SLU
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 9:31 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.

Maybe the next TWO will have this:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NOVEMBER 30.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST TWO ISSUED UNTIL JUNE 1.

LOL!

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT
FORM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.
2001 would be a better year to compare to this year because it is more recent and the first hurricane did not develop until September 7th... the season ended up with 15 storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
i think 992 would be a cat 1 or low car 2

did some one say there going to be a hurricane in the gulf your jokeing right red hot gulf and 2 eddys
Uhhh...2001 was the worst Hurricane season I've ever been through.
: (
Take a look at the minimum pressure for Katrina on the GFS (AVN) - around 970 mb; the pressure on the phase analysis diagram is the same as the lowest pressure shown on the SLP map.
This is the reason why

Link
1900 do you mean the worse you actually ever personally physically went thru??
No Taz, nobody said a hurr in the GOM. The is a long range model that shows a 992 low off the E coast of Fl a long way out.
Uh Hun
Allison was horrible, lasted a while over houston, flat city, big flood, went off texas and hit LA. (state not city)
1900, care to explain?????????
anyone know what the Farmers Almanac predicts this year for hurricanes?
Gotta go Y'all! Hope everyone has a great day! I have to do homework. Uhhh...
: (
K8...it's skewed, they probably got their data from Dr Grey and NHC.
Just alot of flooding.

Now I am REALLY going.
i dont understand it affecting you personally as you are in spring, there wasnt much flooding there was there??? i mean there could have been. ?? i remember the weekend like yesterday, we were going to fort pickens on that sunday. and at the beach there where we were staying(campground) the little boy from mississippi got his leg bit off by shark. plus the flooding in houston. i was spared, Praise God.
What is wrong with Dr. Grey and the NHC data?
Just alot of flooding.

Now I am REALLY going
JP. I have been saying all day that 93L has continued to NOT weaken, but maintain convection. No one is delusional enough to believe it will be any more than a weak TD, but it kind of rebuffs all of those that said last night it would run into 150kts of shear.

I love Dr. Masters guys, but his word is not gospel.
nothing that i am aware of 03
thanks nash
i agree
bye 1900, get that homework done. you are a good kid. take it easy.
What were Grey's and NHC's original prognostications?
Ok staying around longer...

There was a creek behind our house that flooded. really messed things up. Our house wasn't affected too bad because it's kind of on a small hill, but the yard and my part of the neighborhood got flooded.

Going now...
actually i take no ones word as gospel with the weather lol
Whatever the Farmer's Almanac says is probably flat-out wrong just look at what it says about my area, Link, it has not been updated since November as well (it is fro Nevember 2005 to October 2006):

Temperatures in the winter season will be milder than normal, and precipitation will be above normal in the northwest and below normal in the southeast. While most of the region will have below-normal snowfall, snowfall in the area from St. Louis to eastern Iowa will be a bit above normal. The heaviest snow will fall in late January, with other snowstorms in late December, mid-January, and early March. The coldest periods will be in mid-December and mid- and late January.

Wrong! Winter was mild, but also virtually snowless.

April and May will be very cool, with above-normal rainfall. Watch for a late-season snowstorm in early April.

April was one of the hottest on record and it did not snow in April.

The summer will bring temperatures two to three degrees cooler than normal, on average. The hottest temperatures will occur in late July and late August. Rainfall will be below normal in June and August and above normal in July.

Definately flat-out wrong (except for the below normal rainfall in June and August)!

Despite a hot start, September will be cooler than normal, on average. Rainfall will be near normal in the east, while heavy rains will bring flooding to the west. October will be rainy, with temperatures near or a bit milder than normal.

I doubt this.

It is a crock!
wow! it is a crock
i dont read it myself but was curious
Hey JP. I wasn't getting on you about your comment or anything. I was agreeing with you, so I hope you didn't take it that way.
I wonder what they base their outlooks on?
dont know but i wouldnt spend 20.00 a copy to find out
bet thats what they cost
actually jp...it was supposed to be tonight
It looks like that blob off the South Carolina coast is heading right for Gainesville & the models are showing it pass nearby as well. Anybody else live between Jacksonville & Ocala?
Can someone tell me what is going on with WU when the font and the format change and refresh takes a long time?
673. MahFL
I live just SW of Jacksonville.
happening with me too the font and format are changing on their own
This is probably a TD but they will not classify it. I have seen TD's classified with winds of 25mph, but the difference is they were forecast to develop into major storms.
I enjoy reading and participating in this blog but I especially like digesting Nash's posts, he cracks me up.
679. MahFL
the NHC outlook says the FL blob may even become a TD tomorrow morning. Where is the 100 kt shear ?
"but I do agree that this thing should have been sheared apart by now based on what everyone was saying"

i agree with both of you.....this storm seems to have added somehing to the idea that smaller circulations are somehow less succeptable to shear.....

i would have though 93L was done a couple hours ago..... i still see some major shear, but 93L still plugs alone.... guess i better pull the blade back up on the guillotine! LOL

Station SKMG1 - U.S. Navy Tower M2R6 GA
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
5Wind Speed (WSPD): 25 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.93 in
Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )

ONE PERSISTANT STORM!!!
A 992 mb low is typically up to a middlin' Cat 1. But there is no direct linear relationship to Category... Some Cat 4s have min pressures around 920, Wilma was 882 as a Cat 5... Pressures below 950 definitely get your attention...
How do I crack you up?
Since were talking about pressures, Wilma was also the only storm to have Cat 4 winds with a pressure of 898mb or something like that. (below 900mb) So yea, the pressure to winds ratio can definately vary a little bit. Emily had Cat5 winds with a pressure of 929mb i think.
Some of your comments are humerous as hell, it's all good dog.
I'm sorry, but I sense a bit of (you're talking out of your ass) cynicism there. Am I wrong?

Look at recent history. Once Chris broke down to a 25mph storm, they still classified it as a TD. So is it ok to keep a storm as a TD even though it is under the threshold of 30mph?
688. PBG00
evening all...intersting, our weather station here was still giving 93 "potential" to develop but said it would be a slow go..could it slide under the shear?
well..i guess what it would take for it to be named a td at the 8 or 11..would be evidence of a closed circulation...and not sure that's there anymore....and doubt they would send the HH to check it out with it this close to land
ok to keep it there..but not to classify it...and i remember reading that they said it could possibly have 30 plus winds near convection
001730 STORMTOP TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE ATLANTIC CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO....TROPICAL STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY....THE TROPICS ARE VERY QUIET...StormTop
OK, we can all go home now.
stormy.....how the heck are you?
According to Link you can have a system with winds of a grand total of 10mph
Someone posted: "This season really needs to get in high gear like the old Doc says. Cant expect an 05 season, but at least an 04 would be nice!"

This is obscene. I have been trying not to post on this, but.... Please remember that we in La and on the Gulf Coast are NOT cheering for another season like '05. I realize some of you are hurricane groupies, but remember that 1600 of my neighbors died when the levees broke after Katrina. A friend's husband drowned in their Lakeview home. There were bodies floating in the streets. Several dozen of my coworkers lost EVERYTHING, with 10 ft of water in their houses for a month. Hurricane season is not a game! Please think of the tragedy hurricanes bring, and stop hoping for an active season! Where is your sense of humanity?

I think nobody has a clue right now because conditions a different than what was expected. The shear is not near the problem it was forecast to be at this time yesterday. Also 93L is farther east than expected and as of yet shows no signs of heading into FL. Just slowly drifting south.
Vortex, so what do you think is going to happen to 93? Possibly escape the shear? How about make it intact into the GOM?
vortex i been saying this all season it was going to be a dull one until september and october....2 things killed the earlier storms the shear and the famous african dust and also the sst were much cooler then last year along the african coast....we will see our first hurricane in september...no activity will form in the month of august....StormTop
I guess you better define "activity".
I put myself in the no clue column. 93L hasn't done what I expected already so I would just be guessing.
nawlins...and you blame anyone here for that?....did you come to florida and help out in 04 and 05?....many of us went there for katrina?....i remeber reading of truckers from miss and louisanna..that wouldn't bring plywood and construction equipemnt to florida after charlie because there were too many better paying runs..no one jumped to help....not saying it makes you or anyone else bad..but i do think there is always two sides to the story
705. PBG00
Well September isn't that far off...an active fall would not be unheard of. It's kind of nice not having to worry about the August monsters.
[Consults Magic 8-ball again.]
ST... My tealeaves say otherwise... lmao... Good call man.. But you've not been saying that all season...
If I recall correctly August was supposed to be when things got reaaallly ripe... Please quit telling us that you've always said something when clearly you have not.
And quit attacking people while your at it. =D

... HS223
THINGS ARE ABOUT TO CHANGE IN THE TROPICS JUST LOOK AT THE ATL WV LOOP DRY AIR IS GONE.
And to add to that, what is the mindset here from the NHC?? Is it once a storm reaches TD, TS or Hurricane status, we'll keep it a TD under the 30mph (written in scientific stone) book, but those that HAVE YET to even reach TD staus MUST be at a minimal 30mph to be classified? Seems a bit ridiculous to me.
713. Alec
Guys, STORMTOP has changed his tune since April......I remember clearly when he said the season would be a horrible one, and then kept changing his predictions about when we would see our storms and.....
715. Alec
.....he said Alberto would hit the TX/LA border area when it was clearly headed for the Big Bend of FL...
one nice thing about stormy.....consistancy...and he never looks back
Nawlins.....

i feel your pain..... but please spare us the guilt trip......

wishcasting, one way or the other, will not affect the outcome either way. I dare say the vast majority (mostly, not all) would love to see some tropical activity.... and at the same time, wish no harm to anyone.......

please, just have tolerance, instead of berating others.....

maybe a tropical weather blog where we study genesis, and track tropical weather is not the ideal place to heal your wounds.....

i pray the hurricane season spares you, florida, and the gulf coast of further dispair..... i know it is hard and painful..... just try to be a little easy on those who sometimes may seem a little insensitive. imho, 99% here would console your position, no matter what stupid post they make.......
720. PBG00
Sense of Humanity? This is a weather blog..specifically at the present moment,a tropical weather blog..People come here to talk about the hurricanes.Groupies?maybe..but inhumane?thats harsh..nobody said they wished a katrina would hit again. No one wishes anyone harm.
722. Alec
I can read BTW!LOL
725. Alec
anything that happened that ST said wouldnt happen doesnt count...LOL
someone give me an idea of what you forsee for South Florida in the way of landfalling hurricanes and majors.
728. Alec
I am wrong many times too. The NHC is wrong, and so is 100% of the other meteorologists.....weather is an inexact science!
730. Selu
ricderr:nawlins...and you blame anyone here for that?....did you come to florida and help out in 04 and 05?....many of us went there for katrina?....i remeber reading of truckers from miss and louisanna..that wouldn't bring plywood and construction equipemnt to florida after charlie because there were too many better paying runs..no one jumped to help....not saying it makes you or anyone else bad..but i do think there is always two sides to the story

ric, there really is no need for a pissing contest about who's hurricane experience was worst.

Nawlins simply stated that, as a Katrina survivor, he can't understand why people would wish for a really active hurricane season. No need for your defensive stance, ric.

I'm a Katrina survivor, too. I'm one who digs the excitement when a hurricane is developing in the Atlantic or the Gulf. It's a fascination that I think many people here share.

But there's no need to be insensitive or rude to the people who post here who lost everything in Katrina. Really, there's just no need.

oops stormy.....darn doc masters for saviing his blogs
help me out there selu...where was i rude?..
734. IKE
Anybody here see the 18UTC NAM...Granted it's unreliable at times but...shoots a 1000mb low up toward the Yucatan channel by Monday morning. That's the strongest I've seen any storm on that model so far this season>>>Link
735. Selu
Jeez, this place has changed a LOT since last year. Not near as much hostility then as there is now. I guess that comes with the forum's growth in membership.

:-(
Hello Selu
739. Selu
Ric: Better question, how was your comment at all relevant to Nawlins'?

There's no requirement that Nawlins can only post commentary IF he's assisted in rebuilding efforts with other hurricanes.

I just don't see how your retort to Nawlins was the least bit relevant to his comment.

:shrug:
ST I have no doubt that Katrina report will have twisted information in it! And btw, computer models are not dumb, and are used for very good things these days. You should use them too for once. Some people rely on models way too much, but neither Alec or I are one of those people. We USE the models to give us examples of what COULD happen. As for you, you are wrong 75% of the time and you are still as disrespectful as ever.
ST admit he was wrong???? that'll be the day! LOL

has ST ever admitted he was wrong? LOL
744. Alec
Its not a contest STORMTOP....and BTW have I ever seen you wish condolences for the families of those that lost lives and everything more than snaring about how "right" you were about Katrina? NO! Your ego has taken priority almost as if you wanted LA to get hit so you could be right.....sad.....
745. PBG00
Selu, Rics post was relevant in that he was showing the humanity of some of the people on this blog..after nawlins asked where the humanity was...I think the point was that no one is wishing destruction on anyone..but they want to watch a hurricane form.It is the very nature of this particular blog..There are other blogs ion here that are not so direct or(i dare say)potentially offensive to those who don't share in the awe of the process.
You can't wish Hurricanes not to happen. You can prepare for them or move. They will happen no matter what. Also my humanity came in the form of prayers and money for people who didn't have the sense to get the heal out of a fish bowl with a cat 5 hurricane bearing down on them. My state of Texas has taken in 1000's of people at a great cost to tax payers. Then ya'll go and re-elect the same mayor who hid for days after the storm then exagerated everything from dead bodies to babies being raped etc. What else do you want Nawlins.
wow what 100kts shaer lol 93L has been doing vary well today and i think it is now moveing S little faster to where it will not get in to the shaer
"this isnt a contest"

for some, unfortunately it is......

for them, it is more important to be "right", than it is to learn.......

part of learning, is being wrong! ;) trust me, i know! LOL
Wow we just all allied with each other to bash ST. From what ive read, ST is an non-formally educated person from a tropical standpoint obsessed with tropical activity, but if you read between the capital letters, he makes statements that are reasonable, except for when they have to do with an actual storm. Of course some of his predictions are also pretty much asinine (redneck dictionary). Most people can tell which have at least a medium possibility of happening, and which do not.
IMO, the storm is either going to get the start of a rediculous amount of shear in the coming hours, or it will not get that much at all due to its southward drift, and that the shear values seem way too high.
Posted By: IKE at 10:56 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
Anybody here see the 18UTC NAM...Granted it's unreliable at times but...shoots a 1000mb low up toward the Yucatan channel by Monday morning. That's the strongest I've seen any storm on that model so far this season


thanks IKE, what kind of time frame is that loop?
evening all
PLEASE RELAX
If anyone could predict the weather and hurricanes landfalls , there would be a new Nobel prize category !!! just keep up the good work and stop arguing . This is a great Blog
753. IKE
Posted By: caymanguy at 6:06 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
Posted By: IKE at 10:56 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
Anybody here see the 18UTC NAM...Granted it's unreliable at times but...shoots a 1000mb low up toward the Yucatan channel by Monday morning. That's the strongest I've seen any storm on that model so far this season

thanks IKE, what kind of time frame is that loop?


84 hours OR Monday morning....plus there's a front coming down that MIGHT force it into the dreaded GOM...IF the NAM is correct...haven't seen a storm like that on ANY model run rgey have had this season.
well, for the last 2 hrs plus, Station SKMG1 - U.S. Navy Tower M2R6 GA has had winds 25knots sustained....... winds STILL from the north.......
selu.....i wasn't hostile...i gave facts to a statement based on misplaced sentiment is all
756. Alec
thelmores, I agree...but what REALLY is sad is that ST wishes to be right more than thinking "masses amount of fatalities could happen because of Katrina".....I have certainly never seen him slightly moved about the destruction that Katrina caused after it practically bombed the GUlf Coast like a nuke....
757. Selu
Hey, PascMississippi.

How you faring?

We're back to normal here...got our new roof--just need to repair my son's treehouse. No complaints here.

mmmm.... Just got back from outside... Had to fix the Mower... ST I don't doubt you know something about hurricanes... But, The way you conduct yourself is soo entirely unprofessional and childish No one wants to listen to you. Maybe if you took insults like an adult should take them, you'd have a much better standing with the community here on WU and you wouldn't get attacked everytime you make a prediction.

Sure, you were right about katrina... But have you been right about anything els? You might be as skilled as any other guy with access to weather maps/charts and a bit of knowlage on the matter. You're just so very conceited.
759. IKE
rgey...should have typed *they*...

Sorry about that....I made a mistake. Wish ST could admit he's not purrfect!
Well 93L or the remnant of it is still firing up some low-topped convection centered around 30.35N 79.00W. That being said, the mighty sword of the shear gods is rapidly coming down from the north towards the heart of 93L from the eastern edge of the continental upper-level high, albeit nowhere near 100-150 kts...but looking more than strong enough to shear apart what remains.

I only hope the convection holds together long enough to give the Northern and Central FL coast some much needed rain tonight...
761. Selu
ric: My comment about the hostility here has nothing to do with you. It's the other comments and board battles that get old. That's why I log in, try to get info but find the latest board war instead, and then give up and log off.

Not aimed at you at all. :-)
Selu, we are doing pretty good. We are out of the FEMA trailer and back in our house. The house is nearly complete. The house will never be the same, but at least it is still here.
763. IKE
caymanguy...I see why you're interested...being you live in the Caymans!
is it possible for 93L to get as far south as cape canaveral.... i am starting to wonder! LOL
sorry..when i see what is cut and pasted by me..and then read that i'm rude and insensitive..i take it as directed to me..enjoy your night
767. Selu
Pasc, that's good news! Truly is no place like home, even if it's not the same home that it was before Katrina.

We were fortunate enough to stay with my parents, whose house was not damaged at all.

768. IKE
93L is already east of JAX...persistent system...
well looking at the new data i got today im telling all of you now and this is written in stone we wont have a storm in august....ike the low you are looking at over the yucatan on monday will be shredded by shear from and upper level low over mexico...you can forget about ithat shear and dry dust will take over the tropics until september when conditions will change for the worse..i still think the way the high is set up and the azores high enforcing it the threat will be more towards the yucatan and middle texas coast for september and the october storms we will have to worry about...we should get no more then 10 storms in sept and october unfortunatelly 2 will be cat 3......we will have to be on guard for this in october.....StormTop
it is moveing S and a way from the shaer i am starting to wonder about that to if there was 100kts shaer you think 93L will be her today
mmmm... porkchops....
thelmores - I don't know if there is much in the way of a surface circulation left, but it is possible that something in the mid-levels can ride the shear surge south to Cape Canaveral to bring some rain.
i think most of the circulation of 93l is less than 10k feet.... and it is moving "with" the shear..... been prety amazing to last this long imho.....

i am willing to bet Dr. Masters and Dr. Lyons would probably agree......
Goodjob ST... Deffinit improvement in attitude on that post. Thank you for a cival Discussion, very informative. It's much appriciated. ^_^
Good Evening All,

East Atlantic
There are two tropical waves in the East Atlantic, one along 32W and along the African Coast.

The one along 32W, is limited in convection and mostly embedded in the ITCZ, although it has a nice cyclonic curvature seen on 850mb streamline winds.

The one along the African Coast is located near the ITCZ at 8N. This wave has well defined invert V curvature, due to the presence of divergence aloft and low level convergence. The wave is also located in an environment of high atmospheric instability that extends all the way to the wave at 32W.

The wave is over 20-30knots of wind shear, that is forecast to weakened all along the path of the wave to 50W, as of today. Beyond that point, wind shear depends on the location of the Upper Level low NE of the islands (which is moving west at this point).

That low is creating hostile conditions in the East Caribbean Sea, and areas west of 50W.

The wave will be steered west, then north along the ridge of a strong Upper level High, centered near the Cape Verde Islands.

The wave will encounter SSTs of 26-29C, increasing at it travels west.

If the wave can persist for more than 24hrs on its own, then it has a chance of development in the upcoming days.

93L Update
93L will have to act fast in the next 6hrs, because:

Its proximity to land.
The upper level High has moved off the coast and moving out to sea.

Behind the high is an upper level trough which is increasing winds shear.

An upper level Anticyclone might build in the central Atlantic that would create favorable conditions.

Beyond then is uncertain.

jphurricane2006 wow 1010mb the mb are falling now?
looks like the convection is dying down again..... but it also looks like the actual track "may" be south of all the models........
780. IKE
Posted By: STORMTOP at 6:16 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
well looking at the new data i got today im telling all of you now and this is written in stone we wont have a storm in august....ike the low you are looking at over the yucatan on monday will be shredded by shear from and upper level low over mexico...you can forget about ithat shear and dry dust will take over the tropics until september when conditions will change for the worse..i still think the way the high is set up and the azores high enforcing it the threat will be more towards the yucatan and middle texas coast for september and the october storms we will have to worry about...we should get no more then 10 storms in sept and october unfortunatelly 2 will be cat 3......we will have to be on guard for this in october.....StormTop


ST...if you don't mind I'll keep looking and the 18UTC GFS seems to be jumping on board too. Their last run(12 UTC) showed nothing much coming up through the Yucatan. Now even the GFS is hinting at a low which eventually makes it into the eastern gulf>>>Link
Nice Will40... lmao
hey..... just got an outer band "shower"..... enough to water the grass a little! YEA!! :)
storm...i think you'll be proven wrong by the end of next week..and time will tell you that your prediction concerning origination of storms will be incorrect also..but i appreciate the lower case....now...i for one..won't gloat..when you're wrong bud...(cough, cough)
Here is stormtops predication from June 9,2006 in Dr.Master's blog It seems like he just keeps pushing back the months.
Posted By: STORMTOP at 1:49 AM EDT on June 19, 2006.
guys you need to sit back take a real deep breath there is nothing going to form in the tropics for the rest of the month of june the shear is just to high and the dust is back again...chill guys go on a 2 week vacation then all hell will break lose....the one and only StormTop I will be back around july 5th....



Storm just stop with the non-sense this has gone on way to long. Yo might want to go read Wunder's new program you may not last long with it.
thats my point ike about these computers they cant see 24 hours in front of them...the low will be over mexico ike not the yucatan...it will be and upper level low and it will demolish your surface low trying to develop to much shear....ike dont take my word for it im reading the atmospheric charts for the next 5 days thats how i know that and i dont need your computers to tell me....ike do as you wish.......StormTop
June19,2006 sorry
93L
A tropical low in association with a dying surface trough, has increase in convection this morning. The low is located 31N, 78.5W, just of the coast of Georgia, moving SW. This morning quicksat pass and visible satellite imagery reveal a well-define closed low level circulation with light winds, but that might change with the increase in convection this morning. However much of the convection is not well organized around the low.

Buoy Observations
Three buoys, two stationary (41012 and 41008) and one drifting buoy, measured 5-10knot winds and 1017mbar pressure.

Sea Surface Temperature
Sea Surface temperatures are around 80degrees in the area.

Wave heights
Wave heights are generally 0-1meters in the area.

The low is no longer under the influence of an upper level high, which appears to be weakening and moving out to sea, allowing some shear from an upper level trough, over the south east Unites States, to affect it.

The low will most likely reach land (Florida or Georgia), before it can become a Tropical Depression.

Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea
A surface low pressure (1012) is along a surface trough, that extends from south of the Florida/Alabama coastal border into the south central Gulf of Mexico. This low is being steered a little south due west by an upper level High located near Louisiana/Texas.

No development is expected as an upper level low is located to its NE, under the same influence of the high.

A another very weak Upper level Low near the Florida keys, that low is associated with an ill define Upper level trough, extending from Cuba into the NW Caribbean Sea. That low is creating some hostile conditions combine with another Upper level low NE of the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave is moving through the NW Caribbean Sea, no development is expected.

An Upper Level high located over Honduras/Nicaragua.
i'm not a shrink..but i have studied what motivates people and how they react to stress....it would appear..that storm is his worst enemy....he provokes the situation..then the only way for him to redeem himself..is to make even more far reaching predictions..
17/1745 UTC 31.6N 79.1W T1.5/1.5 93L

hey what dos T # 1.5 mean dos that tell you how strong the storm is?
Ok, guys... Stop bashing ST... Lets just let it go. I'm sure he'll give it a break if you do aswell.
Taz,

Yes, those numbers are estimates of the storms' strength. Here's a chart explaining.
793. IKE
..ike dont take my word for it im reading the atmospheric charts for the next 5 days thats how i know that and i dont need your computers to tell me....ike do as you wish.......StormTop

So atmospheric charts 5 days out are reliable, but BOTH the GFS and NAM jumping on to something aren't???

Maybe you're right, then again, maybe you're wrong ST.

I can admit I'm not right most of the time. Can you?
Guys i really hope your ready cause the GFS has now been showing for several runs now that things are going to change very soon,how soon?not sure but the switch is going to be turned on real soon in my opinion.every run has been different but my point is conditions look to be changeing in the near future towards a more active tropical atlantic.The 18z GFS shows 2 storms in the atlantic....I expect this will continue as we enter the heart of the season,iam all stocked up are you?
Good evening all,

Just a quick looking to see that all is quiet on everyfront except the blog front . . . . LOL

Weather here has been great all day, but just a couple minutes ago I heard some thunder, went outside and discovered some clouds building up to the south of New Providence. And I am supposed to be going out tonight, too . . :o(
Hey, 21N,

That's some good advice . . .

Of course some of the guys in here don't have the same quality of relaxation spots that we do . . .
BAD ST!!! BAD!!!! CLOSE THE DOOR QUIETLY AS YOU EXIT THE BUILDING!!! WE DON'T LIKE DOOR SLAMMERS IN HERE!!!
The Yukatan is part of Mexico.
798. IKE
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 6:36 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
Ok, guys... Stop bashing ST... Lets just let it go. I'm sure he'll give it a break if you do aswell.


That's the problem sniper...he won't! Just goes on and on.
Yucatan....sorry.

Good evening all!

Have you missed me?
801. IKE
ST...you just consistently act like your pissed at everybody.
Rays, ignore him. We know he is always wrong. Who cares.
whats get back to 93L evere one stay cool ok


did any of you see my ? yet commet
and there you go...explode and leave...did you not see that coming?..the man could be a great sergeant on the front lines...fire up the troops..and in the mist of overwhelming arms..charge up the hill and take the top..our hero..of course...he would have an arm lost by a grenade..three bullet wounds and a neck slashed from a bayonette..which somehow..i think quite a few from here might cheer...

and yes..this post has been rude and insensitive.... :-)
I answered you question a few post's up Taz.
Been spending time watching the Pacific...great storms to follow, one after another, most of them for the fish, even better.
Now after catching up on this blog I hate to say it but I really hope you all get a storm in the Atl., and SOOOOOOOON.

Thx for keeping it real 456.

P.S. None of you own guns do you? :O
sorry ST go look at the blog and you will see that it says this word for word. Go look for yourself.
youa re the one stirring the crap.

This place has been quite without you around. You have no respect.

You are the one that stirs it up. Have agood night ST. But i proved you wrong Again.
17/1745 UTC 31.6N 79.1W T1.5/1.5 93L

hey what dos T # 1.5 mean dos that tell you how strong the storm is?


can i have a commet back on this ? thanks
809. edith
somebody answered your question down the page a bit, Taz.
810. IKE
Posted By: ricderr at 6:42 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
and there you go...explode and leave...did you not see that coming?..


He'll be back again with more insults. I wish this blog had an ignore option.
HurricaneMyles thansk for the link and doing my ? for me
Well, I guess no one missed me....
:[
only one panic...came with the uniform kind of thing..but never fired anwyere but the range..but i have touched a nuke.......nothing to worry about
814. Alec
IKE, it soon may have one!(or something similar)...read WunderYakuza's last blog....
.remembers those 246 who lost their lives in Camille 37 yrs ago tonight.We are reminded by history that catasrophe has no borders ..And that Cat 5 Hurricanes can and do catastrophic damage to us ..overnight.Im Humbled,,and kinda hurt that some here tend to throw innuendo about Mayors..Governors..Presidents..when they werent even here last year.We civillians who were here did not wait to get motivated to help..we just did the Human thing.The action & countless acts of selflessness & courage,and down right heroic efforts of a silent stoic public, wiittnessed daily till I got out Sept 16th..will never be known.But to them..those they helped..and a higher power..And thats all Im gonna say bout dat,....
...would whistle and holler...but she'd think i was hitting on her...so instead..i'll just leer
817. IKE
Posted By: Alec at 6:46 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
IKE, it soon may have one!(or something similar)...read WunderYakuza's last blog....


I'll read it. Thanks.
you know..when you post the greater than and less than brackets...you're text inbetween..doesn't come up
819. edith
a friend of Bill W. possibly.
I would rather be hit on than ignored.

So, have I missed much?
you've missed me babe....they're...feel better?....and by the way...hello 27...good evening
IKE i have been trying to get that option but dont think anybody is listening
be back in awhile....am back on the correct coast..and there's a brewery waiting to slide a beer into my hand
27WINDOWS... Do you really have 27 windows?
There was nothing in between.

I know you wait with baited breath for all of my posts, and I think that's really sweet....
wow, ST Thanks for leaving. ^.^ It'll make our lives much easier...
828. SLU
Hey let's not get too excited about the long range GFS yet. It did the same thing about a month ago spinning up 4 consecutive strong lows in the Atlantic only 1 of which became a cyclone. While we are approaching the peak of the season we still shouldn't take the long range GFS literally but instead look at the big picture and that is that a slightly more active pattern may evolve soon.

About the proposed cyclone in the Eastern Atlantic this weekend, the GFS is well known for backing off on development at the last minute so let us wait until we see an organised and persistent tropical wave off Africa in about 36 - 48hrs before we assume that a storm will form.
ricderr,
I can sleep better already :)
But I regress...New wave commin off Africa looks promissing, tho the models dont seem to be calling for much in the next while. Any thought's out there?
.says its allright to stir his Bloody Mary with a pickled snap bean..UUmmmmmm!..Slurp..crunch..tasty!
So... 27Windows... About them windows... Do you really have 27 of em? Cause I bet that'd be atleast a two man job to board up...
my drink has more rotation than anything in the Atlantic basin..bout as salty too..LOL
Happy trails you jackass ST.
Hellsniper:

I sure do have 27 windows. My home is a victorian replica...I even have a round tower and cone shaped roof.

I love this house, but, we never thought of what it would be like to protect it from a storm when we were purchasing it.
Oh, and I can outforecast you any day of the week. Why, I am actually getting FORMAL EDUCATION IN METEOROLOGY!!!!

God I hate this guy!
..sees da blogs going the way of Louisiana Politics..Spicy with alil BAMM!
Yeah, Essentially... You coulda built a new house with the wood it took to protect your own...
Looks like the GFDL was off for once this season with 93L.
Only have a sec, but has anyone seen the latest GFS?
Guys Considering were almost into late august I think any possibility of tropical development shown by these models in my opinion should be taken seriously this evening.gonna get interesting soon.
Come all you young fellows, so fine and unformed,
It'll start as a habit and seep in your bone
and seek not your fortune in a dark, dreary storm.
'til the thoughts of your mind are written in stone.

Well, there's many a man I have known in my day
who lived just to forecast his whole life away.
Like a fiend with his dope and a gambler his loan,
a man will have lust for writing in stone.

Well, I hope when we die and the ages shall roll,
our bodies will weather and turn into bone.
Then we'll look from the floor of our deep-diggin' hole
and pity the forecaster, rewritin' our stone.

Where it's dark as a dungeon and damp as the dew.
Where the debates are doubled and the insights are few.
Where the rain always falls though the mist and the fog,
Where it's dark as a dungeon way down in the blog.

(with deep apologies to Merle Travis)
..all this talk about Wood ..making me kinda tropically depressed..
Guys i really hope your ready cause the GFS has now been showing for several runs now that things are going to change very soon,how soon?not sure but the switch is going to be turned on real soon in my opinion.every run has been different but my point is conditions look to be changeing in the near future towards a more active tropical atlantic.The 18z GFS shows 2 storms in the atlantic....I expect this will continue as we enter the heart of the season,iam all stocked up are you?
Hurricane Hector:

Hey nash28, As a Sophmore in HighSchool I've been looking toward my future. I was wondering what kind of cash I could make in meteorology... I mean its really my passion, I'd love to atleast dabble in it. But if I could make a career out of it I'd be extreemly pleased.
You all I am sorry for the racked that I caused in here. But I have dealt with St for 2 seasons now. Nothing new to me.

Oh By the way I am not 3 but 35. LOL
It's true, but this house survived Alicia in 83. A direct hit, and frankly, I feel more comfortable here than I would in one of these brand new cookie-cutter houses that are only 51% brick.
racked=racket
..has water ,generator,.fuel..and MREs the likes that God hasnt seen...
851. SLU
Hey let's not get too excited about the long range GFS yet. It did the same thing about a month ago spinning up 4 consecutive strong lows in the Atlantic only 1 of which became a cyclone. While we are approaching the peak of the season we still shouldn't take the long range GFS literally but instead look at the big picture and that is that a slightly more active pattern may evolve soon.

About the proposed cyclone in the Eastern Atlantic this weekend, the GFS is well known for backing off on development at the last minute so let us wait until we see an organised and persistent tropical wave off Africa in about 36 - 48hrs before we assume that a storm will form.
I've been ready since April Hurricane 23.
Hawaii Hurricane?

GFS
854. Alec
OK...this will be the last thing I will say to you ST for today: Soon, very soon we will not have to deal with your filthy language and your immature remarks anymore with a new system that the admin is getting ready to set up.....And stop with the insults towards raysfan.....end of discussion big man!
Gotta go agian...
hey IKE thanks, sorry for the delay , (feeding the chickens and rabbits), yeah like i told someone the other day, we start preping for a big one at the slightest breeze this time of year. lol

folks that Hector is one purty storm, and right out where we can enjoy watching w/out loss.
Has there been any news about the stuff in the Gulf? I still don't see a ULL. Has it weakened?
ihave27windows, yea ive got a house built in 1860, ive had a couple people tell me that it can't go through a hurricane as well as the new homes can, then i take a drive and see entire adams homes developmets being rebuilt cause they were all totaled, and yet my house loses about one shingle a storm.
slu the GFS has now showing development for a few runs now today and approaching the heart of the season in my opinion it may very well be a sign that the switch will be thrown very soon.
me to nash28...lets go.
Thanks for asking Hellsniper. I can tell you that it really all depends on what area you want to specialize in. You will have to go through alot of internships to get your feet wet. I will be going through one myself in about a month or so here locally in Tampa Bay at the NWS Ruskin Office.

I am getting my degree as BS Meteorology with a Minor in Physics. There are plenty of different programs you can choose from, but I can tell you this.... Stay focused and you need to be very strong in Math and Science.

And if I can help you in any way, let me know. I would be happy to.
1860.....How fabulous.....I love old homes. Where do you live? We are a relatively new city, so unless you live down on Galveston Island you can't find homes that old.
An observation in KERMAN, Iran (OIKK), located on/near a mountain measured 823.3mbar pressure.
"thats my point ike about these computers they cant see 24 hours in front of them........ike dont take my word for it im reading the atmospheric charts for the next 5 days thats how i know that and i dont need your computers to tell me....ike do as you wish.......StormTop"

ST...... shows how ignorant you are.... what the hades do you think creates the "atmospheric charts for the next 5 days"????? the tooth fairy??? LOL

computers create the "atmospheric charts for the next 5 days".....

DOH!!!
Thanks Nash, Is there any specific math that I should pay more attention to? Or is it just math in general?
Hey Nash, which college are you at? I know StormW is going to SPC or was...lol
Posted By: ihave27windows at 8:04 PM AST on August 17, 2006.
Has there been any news about the stuff in the Gulf? I still don't see a ULL. Has it weakened?


You cannot see it cleary on satellite imagery, but its there (598mbar). Not creating strong shear, but its there.
weather456 have you seen the GFS runs today?Its been showing all kinda stuff today....at one point today it had a cat 2 approaching the U.S.
"YOU CAN EMAIL ME IF YOU WOULD LIKE MY FORECAST ON A STORM BUT I WONT BE BACK IN HERE....I HAD IT WITH THE SHIT" - STORMTOP

well, ST..... i wouldnt wait by your email box.... oh, and careful to not let the door hit you in the rear on the way out! :)
870. SLU
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:05 AM GMT on August 18, 2006.
slu the GFS has now showing development for a few runs now today and approaching the heart of the season in my opinion it may very well be a sign that the switch will be thrown very soon.


Point taken but the long range forecast are unreliable so don't expect these cyclones to form in the same locations or move in the same areas as the GFS predicts.
No I didn't see it on satellite....will it prevent any organization of the convection?
ok all back to 93L now Please

wow


wow


i no that 93L has lost a little bet of t-storm but 93L has been looking good all day today i am starting to think what 100kt wind shaer if 100kts wind shaer right now 93L would not be her tonight do i have a point? and 93L has been moveing S a way from the shaer for the pass 24hrs so we need to watch this it may go in to the gulf at some point but how storng you all ask? i dont no that ? but we need to watch 93L
Look at this beauty..Intensifying hurricane Hector. Thats the way i like them moving out sea wont be anybodys problem.


Actually Hurricane23, as likelyhood would have it.. I bet ST Is out there with a wireless laptop in a rowboat. Guess Its ST's problem..
Hey umm theres a nice looking wave coming
off of Africa can some one post a pic
weather456 and hurricane23 mail for you!
hey um rapid didnt u say that 99L would die out
and it became alomost a hurricane
ohh my brain is on the brink of bordom of
this years hurricane season.
Can someone mail me and explain to me how to post a pic from my docs on here?

Please???
3 systems THATS IT!!!!! 3
Here's the wave CybrTeddylets see what happens with it once it completly emerges of africa.


Man i hope it becomes a hurricane maybe even
go out to seas and we can observie its glory
Smart aleck.....the pic I want to post is in my documents. How can I post it?
On my hard drive.
Guys i know there will be a hurricane this
season there is one every season i think and debby will form
Sorry for the delay. I am at FMU right now, transferring to FSU next summer.
hurricane23, the map is 6hrs old.

The 8:00pmEDT map, shows the wave already came off Africa.
I wasn't being insulting when I said smart aleck. That's one thing I dislike about text messages. You can't hear the tone of my voice which was teasing.
897. Alec
nash, I go to FSU! I only needed to take one more physics course to get a minor in physics but couldnt stand it another semester!LOL
Awsome Catchaser...Here another pic of Katrinas incredible CDO.


27 you have mail
Ok guys. Gotta spend some time with the wife and the dog before bed. See you in the morning. Let's see if 93L lives at that time.

Should be interesting:-)
yea thanks 456...How youre night been so far?
Thanks Will, so do you.
Ldog, the reason old homes like yours survive storms is, primarily, gravity. I live in an older, albeit weird, house which is built like a tank. I also work on older homes as a profession. Rough-cut heart pine is tough to beat come hurricane season. Also, should you lose power an older home is more comfortable, as it wasn't designed to be a walk in cooler. It moves ambient air by design. Anyway it's cool you have an old home.
looks like a dead dud to me...
456 thanks again.i think this wave will be our next player.
93 is about to be decapitated...RIP 93L.
lol great we're back to posting old storms
cool catchaser...try to resize your pics a tad.
anybody know whats up with the CIMSS website?
One of the problems systems coming off Africa this year seem to be having is that the ITCZ has been very far north at the coast and they have to cross it to get going. I think there is only 1 or 2 storms in history that have gone into it and come out alive. It is dropping down now which means it could get much more active in the Atlantic real soon. However, I think that only about 60% or there about of the storms come from waves off the African coast. The rest form from other events.
I use ImageShack to post images; the only disadvantage is that there is a maximum transfer limit of 100 megabytes per hour, although this is not a problem unless you post a large image in this blog (due to the number of people who read it and all the refreshes and stuff). Also, I disdain the image button; it is a lot easier to type in this,

(img src="") or (img src="" width=640)

with the () being left/right arrows (why enter all the stuff you need to enter in the image boxes when this simple code does it)?
915. IKE
Posted By: caymanguy at 12:00 AM GMT on August 18, 2006.
hey IKE thanks, sorry for the delay , (feeding the chickens and rabbits), yeah like i told someone the other day, we start preping for a big one at the slightest breeze this time of year. lol


Keep a look out to your south in the coming days....you might have something to bring you some weather.
does anyone know current location of 93L
theres a couple good lookin' disturbances making their way to us right now, one should be around 43-45W today and one still barely off the coast of Africa.
lol as long as it isn't like 4 or 5 successive pics im okay, 1 or 2 i can deal with, last time we got an abundance, that post was just fine as long as it doesnt start a rampage
I uploaded a couple of pics of my house (27 windows). One is of the snow we had in 2004. I'm awaiting approval.
Im thinking 1 of these 2 waves should bring us our next storm. theres only 5-10knots in the east atlantic, only a little cooler sst's

Here's a cool image. The USS NIMITZ during a trip around the tip of South America in 2001. Waves crashing over the flight deck....the only time I got a little sea sick on a Carrier!!
Carrier
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 12:45 AM GMT on August 18, 2006.
anybody know whats up with the CIMSS website?


Working fine here story?
ya its working today, maybe it was just my browser but yesterday it was saying the server was down and wouldn't let me view the shear model
927. SLU
MichaelSTL this one is for you

Posted By: SLU at 9:27 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.

The hurricane center should just give up on this system (INVEST 93L) because it won't develop again.



Posted By: MichaelSTL at 9:31 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.

Maybe the next TWO will have this:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NOVEMBER 30.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST TWO ISSUED UNTIL JUNE 1.

LOL!




AND NOW WHERE DID INVEST 93L GO TO??
ft....mind telling people how high the flight deck is above the ocean..will give some persepctive on those waves
IKE< is that the same L you mentioned earlier?

hey, anybody got their own weather station at home?
Hourly updates from Meteosat-8 here and here (yes, they do update more than once every 6 hours). Note: images are copyrighted but they can be used if you include "Copyright 2006 EUMETSAT". Also, they show a much larger area - you can see the entire African continent.
After our trip, the next one to go around went through the pass. We lost a very expensive antennae to Poseidon.
FT, why were they so big at that time? rough seas or a storm?
934. IKE
Posted By: caymanguy at 8:04 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
IKE< is that the same L you mentioned earlier?


Yeah...the canadian model run is interesting too.
catchasser dont remind me of frances that was a bad cat. 2 cane
I was gonna say ricderr it is about 3 stories, amazing
Posted By: SLU at 1:01 AM GMT on August 18, 2006.
MichaelSTL this one is for you
.
.
.
AND NOW WHERE DID INVEST 93L GO TO??


93L? This is where it went:



Perhaps the 100+ kts of shear finally got to it.
The flight deck is like standing on the roof of a seven story building (from the waterline)...it's pretty darn high!!
IKE, where can i find that, you gotta link?
cool links michael, ty
943. IKE
The latest model run for the CMC I have is 12Z...puts a storm south of ST in 144 hours>>>Link
944. IKE
93L looks squashed.
3, 7 same thing lol! "Darn High" as ricderr put it.
947. SLU
IT IS LITERALLY FINISHED
Anyway, that outlook I made up was a joke, unlike stuff that somebody else says; he should know better (you can guess who I am talking about).
949. IKE
That's 3 different models I've looked at that forms a low to a 1000mb storm cruising thru the western Caribbean into the gulf from 84-144 hours.
catchasser went through frances, jeanne, and wilma(eye) plus a few in the past
Here's a view from the 07 level of the island..
Carrier2

I believe it's normally pretty rough even in calm weather at the tip...we crossed during a pretty good storm.
Wow.....Look what's gone on in here. Stormtop.....chill out.....go have a nice relaxing meal at Emerald's.....say hello to Emeril for the rest of us. Let us get back to discussing the weather, instead of your baby nonsense. Stop hyping your ever-changing forecasts. They're like a fart in the wind....they stink....then they go away.
lol well said cosmic, does anybody have any links to places to see the forecast models?
954. IKE
Posted By: CosmicEvents at 8:16 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
Wow.....Look what's gone on in here. Stormtop.....chill out.....go have a nice relaxing meal at Emerald's.....say hello to Emeril for the rest of us. Let us get back to discussing the weather, instead of your baby nonsense. Stop hyping your ever-changing forecasts. They're like a fart in the wind....they stink....then they go away.


He was suppose to go fishin for 10 days in Colorado. I don't think he was away from here 5 days.
ROFLMAO Michael
thanks IKE
958. IKE
Posted By: caymanguy at 8:20 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
thanks IKE


Your welcome. Dang those models have me interested!!! I shouldn't have looked at them, but the NAM caught my eye...the GFS caught my other one and the CMC added to my curiosity.
What caught me about the GFS loop I looked at was the sudden explosion in greens and blues about the 26th or so. Maybe there wont be a system out there by then, but there sure does seem to be a much greater potential for it by the 28th . . . .

yea IKE for the first time i think the models are trying to hint at a quick ramp in the next 2 weeks.
Never feer Taco is Here...

[Everone runs away so very far away]



Taco:0)
New blog up - forget about 93L (destroyed by shear) and focus on the new tropical wave off of Africa.
New BLOG
taco....how in the heck are ya?
966. IKE
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:26 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
yea IKE for the first time i think the models are trying to hint at a quick ramp in the next 2 weeks.


And several of them are suggesting western Caribbean activity in 3-4 days. Plus a cold front is expected to drop into the southeast by early next week....GOM might see something soon.
I notice the NAM is suggesting "something" will bring some showers to the JAX area on Sat/Sun.

Maybe u guys will get lucky up there . . .

Earlier This afternoon:


Tonight (9pm)
ty progressive
NP Story!
seems like this is one of the stronger waves we've seen off Verde thus far
93L Wave heights

93L is finally starting to weaken, this is today's tropical weather round-up which talks about it

Tropical Weather Round-Up
Hurricane Hector: