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Caribbean islands clean up after Omar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:56 PM GMT on October 17, 2008

Tropical Storm Omar continues to race northeastward over the open Atlantic Ocean, and is rapidly deteriorating, thanks to high wind shear and cold waters. The storm is only a threat to shipping now, and will not affect any more land areas. The cleanup continues on several Caribbean islands hit by Omar's heavy rains and high winds. Thankfully, no deaths or injuries have been reported from the storm, which avoided making a direct hit on any islands. Hardest hit appears to be the island of Antigua, where 5.71" of rain was recorded at the airport. Severe flooding washed out roads and prompted many boat rescues, putting up to 100 people in shelters. St. Croix, whose eastern tip caught the eyewall winds of Omar, received minor damage, according to media reports. The storm did knock out power to the entire island for nearly a day, and caused considerable damage to piers and boats in the main harbor, though. Flooding was also reported in the British Virgin Islands, St. Martin, and St. Kitts and Nevis. On St. Martin, high waves dumped rocks and sand of the runway of the airport, forcing its closure. The airport was scheduled to be reopened today. More details on Omar's impact on the islands can be found at stormcarib.com.


Figure 1. Hurricane Omar as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 17:45 UTC October 15, 2008. At the time, Omar was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several computer models are predicting the development of a tropical depression in the Atlantic's southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua or Honduras, about 5-8 days from now. Wind shear is expected to be low, 5-10 knots, across most of the Caribbean for the next ten days, and I would not be surprised to see a tropical storm develop in the Caribbean next week.

Heavy rains continue over the Central American nations of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and El Salvador, in association with the remains of Tropical Depression Sixteen. The remains of TD 16 could move over the Eastern Pacific and regenerate into a tropical storm. Several of the computer models continue to indicate this possibility, and NHC is giving this system a medium (20-50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific by Sunday.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
There continues to be an urgent need for relief supplies in the wake of Hurricane Ike. I recommend contributions to the portlight.org charity fund, formed by wunderground members to serve the needs of those often bypassed by traditional relief efforts. Contributions are fully tax-deductible, and more details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.


Figure 2. Damage in Antigua from Hurricane Omar. Image credit: Iain Mellows.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters
Omar Lashes Curacao!
Omar Lashes Curacao!
Omar Lashes Curacao!! The pictures say it all!
Bonaire Bar
Bonaire Bar
The Cappuchino bar on Bonaire's seafront during Tropical Storm Omar

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Not good news that something may develop, but thanks Dr. M for the update.
Is that a helicopter?
Thanks for the new update Dr. Masters. Those are some awe-striking pictures that you posted from Hurricane Omar's passage through the Virgin Islands. Fortunately, no island took a direct hit as the hurricane went up the gut through the Anegada Passage.

I agree with you that we need to watch for a possible tropical storm developing in the Western Caribbean next week. Environmental conditions have continued to improve and there is abundant energy just festering over the region waiting for a system to form.
thanks doctor M!!!!!
just wanted to clarify that the dry air due to high pressure does not take dry air and bring it down to the surface,a GOOD friend of mine actually explained it is the heating of the air due to compression,caused by sinking air,which then causes evaporation,hence drying the atmophere,Thanks storm!!!!
Quoting DDR:
What is that,a helicopter?


You would be correct. That is a helicopter in that waterway. Just an amazing picture that truly represents the power tropical cyclones can produce.
Are all you people so suprised, i mean really!!?? come on!! wake up and smell those arabica coffee beans!! Hurricane season is not over, not even in the least!! Dont develop a false sense of security, because if you do, you will be caught off guard! I dont mean to rub off as a jerk, but the things i read in this blog are sometimes ridiculous.
actually doesn't take a whole lot of wind to flip a copter,a 50mph gust could flip one!!!!,still amazing pictures non the less and it'll cost somebody money,no deaths though~so thats great news from a cat 3 that missed almost every island in the virgins...
doctor went ahead and said "Tropical Storm",not even invest or TD,leads me to believe that there's a Darn good chance of a TS or STRONGER forming,remember how fast omar developed, and where and what time of year wilma developed...I just think SWFL needs to pay very close attention....Halloween hurricane of 08????????,I have a feeling that there may be another major before this season is over...jmo
thanks for the update Doc.

amazing pictures!

Glad to hear no injuries or loss of life. The islands dodge a major bullet.

i still feel that the worst is yet to come! i dont think FL will escape from a hurricane this year!
excellent no loss of lives!!!!! good, i really am happy to hear this!, when ppl follow proper precautions, no one shouls die, even at the hands of a hurricane


still alot of heat out there. stillwaiting isnt too crazy.
actually it's two helicopters. they were washed away and destroyed by flood waters and not wind.
gone fishing evrybody!!!,Be back in a couple!!!!
are we for geting fay??? it made land fall 4 times in FL has a TS wish i think will be update too a hurricane at post season
Quoting TheTracker08:
i still feel that the worst is yet to come! i dont think FL will escape from a hurricane this year!


I sure hope your feeling is something you ate. I would be very happy to get by another season without damage. Everyone should just remain prepared. Mother nature does not read blogs.
Quoting DDR:
Is that a helicopter?


LOL - used to be...Dr. M is trying to kill my mood this morning. Morning everyone...
Quoting Tazmanian:
are we for geting fay??? it made land fall 4 times in FL has a TS wish i think will be update too a hurricane at post season


Morning Taz. How goes it?
Yep, two helicopters right on top of each other.
Repost from prior blog:
I wonder where surfmom and pottery are

Cotillion, you, pottery and others had an interesting discussion yesterday about how to rate storms.

I thought as a civilian, I would throw in my 2 cents.

I like the idea of a rating that denotes Winds/Surge/Rain - I think that would have meaning for most people.
In addition I think coastal areas should have designations for each - my location in Charleston might be rated for a 2 Wind, 2 Surge, 1 Rain storm. If it is anticipated that a storm will have a greater number in any of those catagories, then evacuation would be put in place. I have some ideas how to get the areas rated, but more about that later.

What do you think?
Quoting myway:


I sure hope your feeling is something you ate. I would be very happy to get by another season without damage. Everyone should just remain prepared. Mother nature does not read blogs.


Yea, in fact in October Florida is at most risk.
Liking the idea KEH

I would prioritze mine as Surge/Rain/Wind

surge and flooding kills more then wind just my 2 cents :)

its not a feeling persay. just some intuition on a subject
Thanks for the update Dr. M.
Don't know about you people, but personally , I would love to be sitting at the The Cappuchino bar sucking down mojitos later this afternoon!!!!
towards the end of october. FL should be on high alert!
#20

I know everyone would like to help people understand the dynamics of every storm but unfortunately no matter what kind of system the NHC puts in place to try to warn people of the potential dangers of any storm, you will always have people like they were showing on ABC the other night who taped their ordeal in Ike. They were sitting there drinking cocktails saying the water will never get as high as my house blah, blah, blah. Next thing they knew the water was that high and they were being rescued. It is a terrible day when no matter what is said people just think they are invincible.
Quoting Bonedog:
Liking the idea KEH

I would prioritze mine as Surge/Rain/Wind

surge and flooding kills more then wind just my 2 cents :)



Good idea, I agree.
610. Bonedog 9:55 AM EDT on October 17, 2008
no problem KEH

more then most likely the report will be something like

margarita
sleep
fish
margarita
sleep
fish

maybe ina diffrent order but you get the idea LOL

Sounds like my kinda plan...
LOL KEH just had a funny thought

instead of all the numbers and stuff just color code it

green,yellow,red just like a traffic light

green- nothing to be worried about possible power outages and street flooding, minor coastal erosion

yellow- low lying areas evacuated. mobile homes and places of weak construction to shelters. definate power outages and street flooding. Beach erosion common

Red- GET THE F!#@ OUT!!!!
ohh ya, a virtual long island iced tea for al!! cheers, the final round is up!! and about to begin
Exactly Rob!!

exactly 24 hours to go till me feet are on Floridian sand :)
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL KEH just had a funny thought

instead of all the numbers and stuff just color code it

green,yellow,red just like a traffic light

green- nothing to be worried about possible power outages and street flooding, minor coastal erosion

yellow- low lying areas evacuated. mobile homes and places of weak construction to shelters. definate power outages and street flooding. Beach erosion common

Red- GET THE F!#@ OUT!!!!


This one is my favorite! LOL
thank you champagnedrmz
Good Morning all.
In and out, one time.
Re: the classification of storms.
Someone ( not me) should put up a blog on this site, so we can have some serious input into that subject. Its a wothwhile topic, and would be interesting as well.
Work calls......
Later.
25# sounds a good idea.
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL KEH just had a funny thought

instead of all the numbers and stuff just color code it

green,yellow,red just like a traffic light

green- nothing to be worried about possible power outages and street flooding, minor coastal erosion

yellow- low lying areas evacuated. mobile homes and places of weak construction to shelters. definate power outages and street flooding. Beach erosion common

Red- GET THE F!#@ OUT!!!!


Not really all that funny though. Any new system needs to be easy to understand. Too much info will just make people's eyes glaze over. Maybe a dual layer thing...Pretty colors that are easy to understand, accompanied by a AlphaNumeric string that would maybe help local TV mets and governments to "get it right"
here is the real SS scale. Amazing folks get hung up on the wind speeds instead of the damage potential. He did a good job..

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.


Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.


Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.


Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.


Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Katrina (pdf), a category 5 storm over the Gulf of Mexico, was still responsible for at least 81 billion dollars of property damage when it struck the U.S. Gulf Coast as a category 3. It is by far the costliest hurricane to ever strike the United States. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.


I think we keep wind speeds for open ocean storms then if a storm will make landfall the windspeed is changed to the actual catagory number it will be like when it makes landfall.

ex-
(open ocean) John Doe is a 110kt system

(land impacting) John Doe is a Cat 4.
*due to the elevated storm surge because of coastal topography.
Rob you are correct also. Why not have the color system for the general public and leave the SS alone for the pro mets
waiting Dr. M. WE are confident with what you said. Sure looks like we will see a something in the western caribbean
and make the color system as easy as what I typed nothing fancy.

thanks Doc. !!!! we sure will keep an eye in out in Belize. This is our time of year. Remember Kieth
RE:27. champagnedrmz
True enough
I have wondered if a TV commercial, first showing the pre-Ike fools, that were laughing it off, and then showing the after Ike results would push a few of them toward evacuation(or perhaps their family members)

In any case, there seem to be some who were truly confused about the storm surge. They were looking at the time of land fall, instead of the time surge, winds etc would be felt.
Some people headed out in the morning, thinking they were ahead of the storm, only to find themselves in the surge.
So adding to the S/R/W perhaps instead of emphasizing when the eye makes landfall we should emphasize the time the effects will be felt.

RE:30, 39. Bonedog - I like the idea of color coding, but you still need S/R/W. My reasoning is this. The present SS scale does not take into account the geographical differences that may alter the surge listed by SS.
Also, for what ever reason, we already have a population that thinks in terms of winds. Some might feel, 'heck it is yellow, but I live in a concrete house'. That house might be on a concrete slab!

RE37. RobDaHood
Not really all that funny though. Any new system needs to be easy to understand. Too much info will just make people's eyes glaze over. Maybe a dual layer thing...Pretty colors that are easy to understand, accompanied by a AlphaNumeric string that would maybe help local TV mets and governments to "get it right"
- Makes sense to me
Good thing we purchased travel insurance for our cruise since we'll be going to Belize and Cayman's but not until 3 November so hopefully everything will be settled by then.
Quoting Bonedog:
here is the real SS scale. Amazing folks get hung up on the wind speeds instead of the damage potential. He did a good job.


Bonedog -- I'd like to post this at another site I visit. Do you have a link to the original so that I can give proper credit? TIA.
all valid points KEH

I do feel there needs to be an upgrade especially in regards to storm surge and I like the idea of effects felt time not actual landfall time.

Maybe a combination thing keep it simple for the masses and TV. Discussions and met office products can be more detailed.

Have it like you said KEH S/R/W in varying degrees then when the guy on TV gets on he uses the color code. Say a weak Cat 2 is coming but you live on some barrier island thats only 2 foot above sea level it would be a Red advisory. Now the same storm is hitting an area thats well above sea level (20 feet) and the homes are modern and well constructed it would only be a Yellow.

Might work
Quoting ILwatcher:


Bonedog -- I'd like to post this at another site I visit. Do you have a link to the original so that I can give proper credit? TIA.


NHC S/S scale
IL watcher Its on the National Hurrican Center's Website I just cut and pasted it to here
hit post to quick

here is the direct link

Link
Quoting tropicofcancer:
Don't know about you people, but personally , I would love to be sitting at the The Cappuchino bar sucking down mojitos later this afternoon!!!!
g'day everyone, can you say top shelf margarita
Thanks Rob :) was typing a long response
Re 38 and the hurricane scale...
Since 2005 we have been through a Cat 3, a cat 1, and a cat 2. The damage in all of these storms was worse than what this scale represents. Just seems odd that the officials would not know this.
hmmmm seems we are getting somewhere here!

Redo the damage scales, add surge and rainfall. Keep it detailed for the pro mets and simplified for TV viewers.

I think we can get somewhere with this.
here are some more cool pics and videos of Omar in the caribLink
Quoting Bonedog:
all valid points KEH

I do feel there needs to be an upgrade especially in regards to storm surge and I like the idea of effects felt time not actual landfall time.

Maybe a combination thing keep it simple for the masses and TV. Discussions and met office products can be more detailed.

Have it like you said KEH S/R/W in varying degrees then when the guy on TV gets on he uses the color code. Say a weak Cat 2 is coming but you live on some barrier island thats only 2 foot above sea level it would be a Red advisory. Now the same storm is hitting an area thats well above sea level (20 feet) and the homes are modern and well constructed it would only be a Yellow.

Might work


I really think we are on to something.
People are very familiar with Green/Yellow/Red. And expanding it a bit for local officials with S/R/W will help. ( I am not sure the Mayor of Galveston understood at all the damage of surge)
(of course there are always people who run the red light - nothing we can do about them)
KEH I belive he did wasnt he the one that asked any residence staying behind to write the SS# on the body so they could be identified later?

Anyways..

Yea keep it simple for the TV folks, the regular joes, but the detailed info is still available for OEM, Government, Pros ect that way they make informed decisions.

With the color code system evacuation orders could be smother as well.

Going back to my last example Red the barrier islands and near shore mainland comunity if needed, yellow farther inland. Wouldn't be as many people evacuating needlessly.

Also OEM and other Gov officials know their areas slosh model so they can give pinpoint colors if needed.
Morning Storm
1. pack the car
2. better think about leaving
3. ok leave now getting scary
4. get the hell out of there
54. keywestbrat - Thanks for the link - it brings home again how dangerous the water is.

56. StormW - Thanks for the update

57. Bonedog Also OEM and other Gov officials know their areas slosh model so they can give pinpoint colors if needed. Excellent Point
Not that i want anything to go to the gulf , but the greater antilles had been batter this year, and this time of the year the stirrings currrents looking ENE or E, Huuummmm Another Lenny on the Making? hopefully not.
Storm how does the military handle its severe weather procedures? Do they have scale or something in place so its easy to know and remeber?
Whoa, 11 AM in, Omar almost a Hurricane again. Discussion says its likely a marginal Category 1 right now.
I think the challenge is conveying the information to the public in a manner that they will understand and take seriously. The S/S description above has been on the NHC site for a long time but most will never see it. Most folks still get their info from the 6:00 news or the weather channel. As most of us seem to agree, sadly the news media has gravitated more to entertainment than quality information. There are some exceptional TV mets out there, but they are few and far between.

It made me furious to see the KHOU news team looking at early aireals of Bolivar and saying "Wow, that must have been tornados" No, people, that's what water does! Even some of the pros that "average Joe" rely on just don't get it. Many of us here saw it coming, many "pros" didn't - inexcusable. You just can't push that much water into one corner of the gulf and not have extreme flooding.

Someone here, I think maybe Stormjunkie, suggested that the NHC be allowed to put up an evacuation graphic, similar to the surge graphic, so that people didn't have to rely on local government to tell them to go.

The NHC/NWS did a pretty good job with Ike, but in the end the job of communicating the information to the public falls on the local media and governments, who failed misserably.

Sorry for the diatribe. Will evacuate soapbox now :o)

TS/Hurricane Omar again.
very valid point Rob. No matter how good the information is if it is not disceminated well its pointless.
Morning all,

Great ideas ~ Color Coding, Warning Systems, etc....
Not sure anything will work with certain people, the ones who Do Not want to leave, no matter what. I don't understand that mentality, but the fact is some folks will refuse to leave unless you handcuff and drag them away from the danger.

Irrational behavior IMHO, but we all have seen the refusals, those that will not leave.... sadly, it will happen again.
Quoting RobDaHood:
I think the challenge is conveying the information to the public in a manner that they will understand and take seriously. The S/S description above has been on the NHC site for a long time but most will never see it. Most folks still get their info from the 6:00 news of the weather channel. As most of us seem to agree, sadly the news media has gravitated more to entertainment than quality information. There are some exceptional TV mets out there, but they are few and far between.

It made me furious to see the KHOU news team looking at early aireals of Bolivar and saying "Wow, that must have been tornados" No, people, that's what water does! Even some of the pros that "average Joe" rely on just don't get it. Many of us here saw it coming, many "pros" didn't - inexcusable. You just can't push that much water into one corner of the gulf and not have extreme flooding.

Someone here, I think maybe Stormjunkie, suggested that the NHC be allowed to put up an evacuation graphic, similar to the surge graphic, so that people didn't have to rely on local government to tell them to go.

The NHC/NWS did a pretty good job with Ike, but in the end the job of communicating the information to the public falls on the local media and governments, who failed misserably.

Sorry for the diatribe. Will evacuate soapbox now :o)

I think you speak to the issue quite concisely. Possibly 400 people missing does not recommend our present informational system.
Beach your correct in that assumption. If they dont want to leave they wont. I say mandatory evacs. Go door to door if they dont want to leave, take them away. Not saying arest them but bring them to a shelter. Start doing that and folks will start leaving again.
RobDaHood....

Is Average Joe related to Plumber Joe?


Wow, that must have been tornados" No, people, that's what water does! Even some of the pros that "average Joe" rely on just don't get it. Many of us here saw it coming, many "pros" didn't - inexcusable.

ROFLMAO

Sorry, I could not resist!
yea that was funny
Bonedog,

In 1995, the authorities drove up and down Holiday Isle *with Bullhorns*(Destin) and announced mandatory evacuations. Most people left, but ther were a few who stayed. I'm not sure that they could do much more than that. Not enough manpower to go into each & every home, search it & then force folks to leave. Not sure if its stubborness, stupidity or a true fear of leaving the home.
Quoting Bonedog:
Beach your correct in that assumption. If they dont want to leave they wont. I say mandatory evacs. Go door to door if they dont want to leave, take them away. Not saying arest them but bring them to a shelter. Start doing that and folks will start leaving again.
Very True beach very true sadly
You all have a great day.... I have to get back to work. Blah....

☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮
68. Beachfoxx

I kinda understand it because I've had to make that decision, and it's tough. Never regretted evacuating though.

I don't believe in "forced" evacuations. I feel that if you want to kill yourself you should have the right to do that, long as you don't take anyone else with you. Unfortunately, sometimes these bad decisions involve children and pets.

Also if you ignore evacuation orders, you should be on your own until it's over. I get angry every time I see our service men and women having to risk their lives interfering with "natural selection" in cases where people had the opportunity to get out and chose to ignore the warnings.
Like that idea better Rob. You wanted to stay well then fine stay until we are ready to come back LOL

Natural Selection what this world needs more of!
"I think you speak to the issue quite concisely. Possibly 400 people missing does not recommend our present informational system."
The count of the missing people from Ike is now approximately 300 souls. The problem remains that even a mandatory evacuation in Texas is not mandatory. People who are too stubborn or ignorant cannot be forced to leave.
Anybody else have issues with the NWS VHF weather transmitters spending large amounts of time off the air? Our local Panama City transmitter is down quite often, and does not have a generator--plus it's equipment is only a few feet above sea level near the entrance of St. Andrews Bay...
Gotta start cleaning my desk off or I'll be working all weekend.

Great Ideas and good chat everyone, thanks!

Bone, have a great trip. Doesn't look like I'll get a chance to join you for a cocktail on the beach next week, but would love to meet you sometime.

Back L8tr
I like the idea of the color codes, however in south florida, we have no where to go. We can go from on coast to the other, not sure how well that will go. Luckly, at least in Dade county, construction codes were changed after andrew for new homes. And the older homes are fairly strong. As for the high raises and the mobile or weaker homes, we have the evacuation zones. Any system can to a fay, if conditions are set up that way. It would be hard to pack up and leave and sit on the road. (mho)
South Florida go north =)

Basically a coastal evac is to move you inland to escape the surge. Thats why they have the evac zones in the phone books depending on catagory. Those zones were made from the slosh modeling of your particular area. The officials arent moving you out of the storm they are moving you to higher ground thats all.
Quoting RobDaHood:
68. Beachfoxx

I kinda understand it because I've had to make that decision, and it's tough. Never regretted evacuating though.

I don't believe in "forced" evacuations. I feel that if you want to kill yourself you should have the right to do that, long as you don't take anyone else with you. Unfortunately, sometimes these bad decisions involve children and pets.

Also if you ignore evacuation orders, you should be on your own until it's over. I get angry every time I see our service men and women having to risk their lives interfering with "natural selection" in cases where people had the opportunity to get out and chose to ignore the warnings.


I agree. As you said the tragedy is when people who are not capable of making the decision (children, elderly, pets ) are harmed.
We as a nation should revive personal responsibility. Too often the same people who make a bad personal decision, will blame others when the decision backfires. I wish no harm on anyone, however, I also do not feel sorry for thoes who have had to pay the consequences for a decision they made.

This is just my opinion.I will get off my soapbox now.
Omar's getting is eye back. Whoa, unexpected.
Bonedog..northward it is then, of course depending on the cat of any storm.
What's that spin near 17N/85W ?
Rob, can I borrow your soapbox please? Thanks. We, all of us, living in coastal areas or not need to stop being so worried about our STUFF! We need to learn to live lighter and leaner, be more adaptable to our surroundings. The more we try to have, the more we stand to lose. This is how we fail ourselves. I think of the Earth as a large sleeping dog, we are the fleas. sooner or later that dog is gonna get up and keep shaking us off till she's comfortable enough to sleep again. Ok, somebody please take the soapbox!!!
exactly foggy.
Omar did a great job at re-organizing and fighting off the dry air, I would exxpect to see a hurricane by the next advisory!
very good points GBLet
Quoting stormpetrol:
What's that spin near 17N/85W ?
Believe that is the area that KMan mentioned this morning.
Errands and work are calling me, so I will catch up this evening when I return home.

Just a quick note that the delivery of information prior to Ike was of great concern to StormJunkie. Long before Ike hit Texas, SJ, was voicing his concern about this very issue. If you have any video, or audio from press conferences leading up to the storm, give him a WUmail.

RE:73. Beachfoxx - I am a great believer in natural consequences. Your poor planning is NOT my emergency. The only problem is that often children are involved. In fact most of what I think, if I said it here, It would horrify most of you. Some of the milder things are:
1)People with children, who do not heed a mandatory evacuation, would have their children taken by child protective services. This will only work to save lives, if concerned family/neighbors call it in when they know someone with children does not plan to evac.
2) (And this is the one that will get me into trouble -has gotten me on iggy list) - I would let it be known upfront that if you do not heed mandatory evac (risking emergency personnel), or if you stay in an area that has been declared off limits - expecting emergency personnel to keep you in ice, or are unconcerned about the disease you spread when sewerage systems etc, are not up and running.. In those cases you will not be eligible for monetary assistance after the storm. If people are so inconsiderate as to place others in jeopardy and it is only about them, then perhaps their pocket book would motivate them.
I am working on trying to feel a bit more charitable to people who put others at risk.
The anger and frustration I felt at the time pre-Ike was like I had not felt in 20 years (during a very dark period in my life).

One more quick note (sheesh I am going I promise y'all)


87. GBlet AGREE (with keeping it light)

Most people, heeded the warning and many have come back to nothing or next to nothing.
These folks need our compassion, prayers and charity.
portlight.org
How about the Southern Hemisphere's first tropical storm, west of Diego Garcia?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Omar's getting is eye back. Whoa, unexpected.


I thought it would be dead by now; after all, it certainly looked like it last night and it didn't look like it would be able to recover:

17/1145 UTC 26.8N 56.3W T2.0/2.5 OMAR
17/0545 UTC 25.1N 57.2W ST1.5 OMAR
16/2345 UTC 23.2N 59.2W EXTRATROPICAL OMAR
16/1145 UTC 19.1N 62.9W T4.5/5.5 OMAR
16/0545 UTC 18.2N 63.9W T5.5/5.5 OMAR
Quoting conchygirl:
Believe that is the area that KMan mentioned this morning.


Hi there

Have been too busy to post much lately but that area may be trying to spin up as Roatan has W winds. That is an indication that the remnant low from TD16 is no longer inland near that area otherwise Roatan would have winds out of the E or ESE.

The rotation seems to be drifting W at this time and it may or may not amount to anything.
The Gulf of Honduras does have a strong 850 mb vorticity and that, coupled with W winds at Roatan, means the area needs to be monitored for possible development if the low stays over water.



Link
Good afternoon...
Well... so far 12Z GFS has it developing.

Let's see what the other 12Z packages have to add to this and if any of the other besides ECMWF will come in line with it.
the gulf of honduras was mention in the HPC discussion. A closed Low is forming there from the remanents of TD16

AT LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANTS OF TD16 ANCHOR A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A CLOSED LOW OVER HONDURAS MIGRATES TO
SOUTH OF GUATEMALA/GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 36-48 HRS...AND IT
PERSISTS THROUGH 72-84 HRS AS A SECONDARY LOW CLOSES OVER GULF OF
HONDURAS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
More wait and see !
100

I think the discussion is referring to a feature over land. This new feature is over water near 17N 85W and is probably part of the left over energy from TD 16 as well
Anyway have to go now but will check in later
Would that be like a fertilizer rating:
8-8-16 ?

I can see how you would do max potential surge based on local bathymetry and max wind, I can't see how you would do rain since that is mostly dependent on storm speed, wind on the third hand, seems to be the easiest to extimate.

I guess you could always do these rankings post-tempest-mortem.

RE: I don't know about you guys but when a storm is approaching south florida our local news channels are on 24-7 warning everyone way ahead of time on what could happen.. I would think that the newscasters in Houston/Galveston were warning and letting people know way ahead of time when to expect the beginning of storm surge but maybe they do things differently then we do.
I personally am fine with the current SS system and the combination of info that I receive from both the NHC, local media and authorities.
Yep....definitely over water:


Photobucket

ITCZ very active.
Very unfavorable enviroment for anything to flurish in the NW caribbean/gulf at this time.
my previous comment (106) was based on comment #43 and every other comment that is coming up with a new/better warning system. Everyone thinks they have a better idea but the current system the NHC uses makes it easy for everyone to understand. Not everyone is a met or amateur-met and their eyes would probably start to glaze over if they start seeing colors followed by letters and why not throw an extra # on the back of that while we're at it.
Anyways nough said on my part.
Thats spin in the GOH is actually in a very favorable environment right now. Low shear, upper divergence low convergence, vorticy from 16. all the models have shown somehting from that region forming so it does bear watching
well folks I am outta here.

Florida here I come.

Stay Safe Everyone

I wills ee you all in a week :)
NNNNnnnnnnoooo not the choppers!!!!

Dang what a waste of beautiful machinery... guess they didn't lash those bad boys down enough! :s
Quoting Bonedog:
Thats spin in the GOH is actually in a very favorable environment right now. Low shear, upper divergence low convergence, vorticy from 16. all the models have shown somehting from that region forming so it does bear watching


Favorable enviroment based on what? Might want to look at some water vapor loops.12z GFS has a very weak low moving NE into florida.Not sure what you mean by all models but theres no major model in my view supporting for anything significant down there but some caribbean moisture creeping northward into florida.

Its certainly possible as this area is prime in october but just dont see anything imminet at the moment.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TS/Hurricane Omar again.




Still very Ugly.
Greetings again.
Good points raised on the re-classification thing.
Basically, we are talking about a classification format that is graphic, for TV broadcast, and ideally numerical too, for radio, word-of-mouth etc.

I like the idea of a colour graphic, like the SLOSH product, so that people can have no doubts at all.
Keep the ideas coming.....



Why didn't TV stations show this. They did not seem to get it. At least one refused to show this!

http://videos.sunherald.com/vmix_hosted_apps/p/media?id=2174716&item_index=77&all=1&sort=NULL
Good afternoon Adrian, Bonedog, Kman, vortfix, CybrTeddy, and everyone else who I didn't mention! Hope everyone is having a great Friday.

Just wanted to let everyone know that I have done a complete CCHS WEATHER CENTER site update, including the tropics and Southern-Central-Northern Florida forecasts. Soon I will be creating a Graphical Weather Discussion for Florida. Still working on it.

Been analyzing satellite loops from the Northwest Caribbean region throughout the day and have been noticing a developing low-level circulation just north of Roatan, Honduras. Westerly winds have been reported throughout the day at this location which indicates that there is a low-level circulation just to the north. During the next 24 to 48 hours, environmental conditions will not favor tropical cyclogenesis, but beyond that time, conditions improve and a tropical depression or storm could form from this area.

On another note, Tropical Storm Omar looks quite impressive this afternoon as it appears to have returned to hurricane status this afternoon as an eye had re-developed. This is very surprising considering that Omar had been getting torn apart last night by strong upper-level wind shear and deep dry air to its west. This has become a fighter now and could bring bigger impacts to the Azores than I had though last night and when I had written my update early this morning.
Afternoon all,Omar looks definitely like he is transitioning to extratropical,other than that,looks quiet for a while,very hostile environment out there.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Tropical Storm ... Omar
Present Satellite picture Omar ... Omar

Tropical Depression ... 16
Present Satellite picture ... TD 16

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Texas/GOM
12Z CMC has come out and it has come in line with 12 GFS for an increased chance of Tropical development in the mid to later part of next week.

Chances of this happening should increase dramatically if ECMWF also persists in supporting these models. Waiting for NOGAPS to finish loading up... but so far is starting to agree with GFS/CMC.
Quoting hurricane23:


Favorable enviroment based on what? Might want to look at some water vapor loops.12z GFS has a very weak low moving NE into florida.Not sure what you mean by all models but theres no major model in my view supporting for anything significant down there but some caribbean moisture creeping northward into florida.

Its certainly possible as this area is prime in october but just dont see anything imminet at the moment.


Low shear. A closed Low. Warm SSTs.

GFS developing a system in 6 of the last 7 runs and other models starting to pick it up. As for the "weak" low, that can change in the very next run of those models.

Let's see a few more runs.

What's unfavorable in your view?
Quoting Bonedog:
well folks I am outta here.

Florida here I come.

Stay Safe Everyone

I wills ee you all in a week :)


L8r Bonedog.. have a nice trip to our Sunshine state.
Pottery... I named this new one after you.. I named one after DDR and it turned into Omar.

Have a great week down there Bone.
Orca, gee, thanks a lot man.LOL
So, thats why I have not seen DDR in a while, he's hiding from the insurance guys LOL
looks like the remements of the td are still spinning over land near the sw carib. have a good one
Quoting pottery:
Orca, gee, thanks a lot man.LOL
So, thats why I have not seen DDR in a while, he's hiding from the insurance guys LOL


More then likely... now its your turn.. yours looks just like you.. innocent so far.
Seastep i fully respect your views but it takes alot more then warm sst's for a tropcial cyclone to flurish.Based on what iam seeing on water vapor imagery conditions look hostile as dry air has really made its way into the caribbean putting a cap on things for a while.
Orca, heheheh
For the time being, I maintain my ( apparent) innocence. Later, who knows.....
Quoting hurricane23:
Seastep i fully respect your views but it takes alot more then warm sst's for a tropcial cyclone to flurish.Based on what iam seeing on water vapor imagery conditions look hostile as dry air has really made its way into the caribbean putting a cap on things for a while.


I doubt that dry air will last long before things moisten up. Maybe a week or so.
Nothing of any serious consequence will impact florida based on the wind shear forcast
provided by the 12z CMC.Out to 72hrs cause iam into 100 plus hr forcast the enviroment looks hostile to any tropical cyclone approaching florida.Yet to view the 12z GFS.

Here's a view at 72hrs....





Quoting hurricane23:
Seastep i fully respect your views but it takes alot more then warm sst's for a tropcial cyclone to flurish.Based on what iam seeing on water vapor imagery conditions look hostile as dry air has really made its way into the caribbean putting a cap on things for a while.


Thank you for the reasoning. I respect your views also. I, personally, just wouldn't call it unfavorable. I think slightly favorable with a wait and see approach.

Without a doubt, requires more moisture, but that can occur relatively quickly.

Watching and waiting. Could get less favorable or could get more favorable.
let me try this again... maybe it will work this time. At least one tv station in Houston refuded to show this video in the early hours of the day as Ike approached the Texas coast. Why?! I wonder if the key person at that station wonders about his decision to say no. Did he not get the severety of the storm? Did he have an ego-driven not invented here point of view? Link
Quoting 954FtLCane:
RE: I don't know about you guys but when a storm is approaching south florida our local news channels are on 24-7 warning everyone way ahead of time on what could happen.. I would think that the newscasters in Houston/Galveston were warning and letting people know way ahead of time when to expect the beginning of storm surge but maybe they do things differently then we do.
I personally am fine with the current SS system and the combination of info that I receive from both the NHC, local media and authorities.


Florida as a whole does better with the local weather guys than other states with the possible exception of AL coast. FL also has strictest building codes for hurricanes (I think, correct me if I'm wrong.) We are more attuned to hurricanes because we get the most hits. So it's probably unfair to compare us with others in this respect. That being said, surge has done some unpredictable things, including getting past an island, peninsula and about 10 miles of Pensacola Bay to take out Interstate bridge and continue another 5 miles or so and get more homes. Plus the area that has 100m gap from a bayou to the Bay that had houses knocked down. Throw in Charlie which had surge from NORTH that knocked down houses on the island... Not saying which is right or wrong but SS scale may not tell whole story.
hurricane23, your posts are stretching the blog. Can you please resize them, or post links instead?
Omar did some moderate damages in St Croix that was far far less damages comparing to Hurricane Georges 10 years before.
ike hurt and the pain continues but YOU AND I ARE MAKING A DIFFERENCE!!

forget one dinner, forego one night at the movies, or the trip to wally-world and help - GO ON, NOW, GET TO THE STORE AND SEND A BOX OFF TODAY!!

here's the church "adopted by emmy"
San Leon Community Church
c/o Pastor Bob
903 9th Street
San Leon, Texas 77539

items picked out and packed correctly the cost of doing this won't be excessive - if everyone in your office brought in one towel or one sheet, one pack of diapers, it can be boxed and sent directly to this address and oh, such help it would be,

storm junkie says they need STUFF still,

CLOTHING LINENS
MEN & WOMEN * TOWELS
CHILDREN & INFANTS WASH CLOTHS
* UNDERGARMENTS BLANKETS
SOCKS PILLOWS
SHOES PILLOW CASES
RUBBER BOOTS * SHEETS
FOOD ITEMS HOUSEHOLD ITEMS
NON PERISHABLES ONLY RUBBER GLOVES
WATER CLEANING SUPPLIES
CAN GOODS TRASH BAGS
BOX GOODS PAPER TOWELS
* INFANT FORMULA TOILET PAPER
PEANUT BUTTER DETERGENT
JELLY CLOTHES PINS
CANNED MEAT CLOTHES LINE
CANNED PASTA
* INSTANT OATMEAL
HYGIENE/HEALTH MISC.
* FIRST AID SUPPLIES COOLERS TENTS
DEODORANT TARPS
SHAMPOO BATTERIES
TOOTHBRUSHES FLASH LIGHTS
TOOTHPASTE INSECT REPELLENT
* HAND SANITIZER CHARCOAL
RAZORS LIGHTER FLUID
HAIR BRUSHES PAPER PLATES
SOAP / BODY WASH PLASTIC CUPS
SANITARY NAPKINS PLASTIC UTENSILS
ADULT DIAPERS / PULLUPS AIR MATTRESSES
* BABY DIAPERS / PULLUPS CAN OPENERS
BABY WIPES TRASH CANS
* OTC MEDICATIONS * SHOVELS
* RAKES
CHAMBERS COUNTY DONATION ITEMS NEEDED
Financial Donations can be sent to Chambers County
Attention: Carren Sparks
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ikedonations@aol.com
* THESE ITEMS ARE CURRENTLY NEEDED MOST
DONATION COORDINATOR: SHARON MARTIN
(281) 788-2757
D
Rather hostile conditions in the gulf based on the 12z GFS.
Until all this dry cool canadian stops diving deep into the south,its going to be hard moistening the atmosphere
Hurricane23

The dry air in the Western Caribbean is not Omnipresent. The moisture content will increase as in about 2 days from now. Furthermore, conditions will be favorable for tropical cyclone development, as wind shear will remain low, and as anticyclone sets over the eastern U.S.

Quoting NEwxguy:
Until all this dry cool canadian stops diving deep into the south,its going to be hard moistening the atmosphere


Exactly...
If theres an area to watch this time of the year its the western caribbean so we'll whats up in a few days.
Quoting Bonedog:
Storm how does the military handle its severe weather procedures? Do they have scale or something in place so its easy to know and remeber?
Quoting hurricane23:
Rather hostile conditions in the gulf based on the 12z GFS.


Indeed they are, however, that is almost useless if the tropical cyclone avoids the mid-western Gulf.
Quoting hurricane23:
If theres an area to watch this time of the year its the western caribbean so we'll whats up in a few days.


I agree with you.

At the moment, environmental conditions are unfavorable.
Good afternoon everyone...wow has it been a while since I have actually had a good hour or two to just discuss the tropics and weather with you all..I miss it I really do. Lately it's been work, work and more work so I have been very busy. However I will start being around alot more because I miss not tracking the tropics and discussing our opinions on things. Also my site is really out of date so between 9:30 and 11:00 tonight after I get off work I will be updating it and I am also happy to annouce the new forum and blog features that will be in place starting tonight. I can now ban folks from the blog or forum if they are doing something innapropiate. something I couldnt do when we had an individual all over my site bashing me. So I am out till later but a new blog and several site updates are planned for tonight!
Almost forgot iam just about done with my paper on devastating florida hurricanes just got a few issues to resolve and then i'll post a link to the PDF.

Some of the cyclones covered are the 1926 great Miami Hurricane the Okeechobee Hurricane in 1928 which hit near West Palm Beach with sustained winds near 150 mph and Hurricane Donna in 1960.
maybe sometime next week the environment will change a little
Quoting hurricane23:
Almost forgot iam just about done with my paper on devastating florida hurricanes just got a few issues to resolve and then i'll post a link to the PDF.

Some of the cyclones covered are the 1926 great miami hurricane hurricane king in 1950 and Hurricane Donna in 1960.


I will look forward to reading your paper. It could help me in the future for when I begin having to write papers for meteorology courses.
Great to see you back on board CaneAddict. I hope that everything is cool between both of us after the events that occured the last time both you and I were here.
148. hurricane23 1:59 PM EDT on October 17, 2008

Looking forward to reading that! There have been some crazy 'canes that have ripped through our state.
For those who have not done so, look at
www.stormcarib.com ( link in Dr. M's blog above)

Images from the Islands affected by Omar. Lots of cleanup going on, and some heavy losses.

The storm came in from the west (as you know) and all of these islands have their main enterprises, towns, harbours, jetties, roads, etc along the western coastlines. This is because the east coasts are generally too exposed and rough.
Westerly winds occur from time to time, and are always bad news. Omar was no exeption..
Quoting InTheCone:
148. hurricane23 1:59 PM EDT on October 17, 2008

Looking forward to reading that! There have been some crazy 'canes that have ripped through our state.


Yes there has been quite a few indeed if you wish to view my page on Hurricane Andrew GO HERE.
148. hurricane23 1:59 PM EDT on October 17, 2008

Thanx - bookmarked that for a later read, have to take my son to the eye dr. for a checkup.

I use you links page ALOT, it is very useful!
Quoting hurricane23:


Exactly...


My area has a 30% chance of rain here in Florida on thursday.
Areas in Cuba have an 80% chance of rain on Thursday too. How do those thunderstorms form with all that dry air? Because the Dry air wont stick around.
The tropical wave just east of trinidad is showing no signs of becoming anything now. The large area in the Atl. has a lot of moisture with it, and covers a huge area though. Stuff to watch...
Thanks for the comments on the site InTheCone.


Have a great weekend everyone! Adrian
peanutbutter detergent wouldn't think that would work to well LOL
Quoting hurricane23:
Thanks for the comments on the site InTheCone.


Have a great weekend everyone! Adrian


Have a nice one Adrian...
I don't like stationary lows. And I will have to agree that the sat of the gulf of honduras keeps getting drier and drier and shear forecast to the N is high for awhile. Ok, ok, unfavorable. :)

Hopefully it stays that way. As I said, stationary lows over warm waters make me nervous.

From the 2pm discussion:

WHILE THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THEN WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NWD THROUGH WED.
Quoting Seastep:
I don't like stationary lows. And I will have to agree that the sat of the gulf of honduras keeps getting drier and drier and shear forecast to the N is high for awhile. Ok, ok, unfavorable. :)

Hopefully it stays that way. As I said, stationary lows over warm waters make me nervous.

From the 2pm discussion:

WHILE THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THEN WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NWD THROUGH WED.


I agree with you,the longer a low hangs around,gives the atmosphere time to change and become more favorable.
pottery....If you know of any specific needs...or know of contacts we might make...we may be in a position to help....shoot me a WU mail....

www.portlight.org
Quoting palmpointbiloxi:
let me try this again... maybe it will work this time. At least one tv station in Houston refuded to show this video in the early hours of the day as Ike approached the Texas coast. Why?! I wonder if the key person at that station wonders about his decision to say no. Did he not get the severety of the storm? Did he have an ego-driven not invented here point of view? Link


Hello gang, I hope everyone is well.

Palmpointbiloxi, that is a moving video that would have saved lives, imo, if it had been broadcast. The deal in Houston, again, imo, was Dr. Neil Frank. Neil had been the director of the NHC for years.. he was THE word growing up in Miami and it appears Houston felt the same way. Leading up to the storm, over and over again Dr. Frank spoke against the official NHC forecasts. He steadfastly held his ground that "they" were "over" forecasting this storm and they would NOT see the storm surge as forecast. Because he is a god of sorts everyone from the Mayor of Houston to the idiot Mayor of Galveston Island, bought into his "it won't be that bad" diatribe.

IMO, some of the deaths should be laid on his doorstep and if I lived there, I would be pushing to have him fired.

ALL the clues were there that people were going to be trapped early but Dr. Frank minimized the danger at the worse possible time. No one wants to leave their home, and IMO, they were given a sense of false safety from Frank.. my childhood hero blew it and caused death because of pride, HE knew better than them, just watch..
Quoting presslord:
pottery....If you know of any specific needs...or know of contacts we might make...we may be in a position to help....shoot me a WU mail....

www.portlight.org


Just popped in for a quick scan, and low and behold, it's Dresslord!

Good to see you again Paul!

yo RobDaHood!!!!!!!!


Doc has the pics!!!!!! I think he's planning a Halloween unveling.......
Quoting presslord:
yo RobDaHood!!!!!!!!


Doc has the pics!!!!!! I think he's planning a Halloween unveling.......


Good deal! Thanks again for all you efforts.

Back to work again...Take care man.
wow three yellow circles in the atlantic and with the hybrid storm the models are predicting off the hatteras coast i think its about to get very active in the tropics again, and we cant rule out that omar might turn around and go southwest like that one models says.

dont count out hurricane season yet thats my opionion
I wonder if that disturbance off of the coast of Africa could become a depression. I mean, we had Nana come off late this season, too.
Well, well look who pops up.... here I am snitching to go find waves......and from cyberheaven PORTLIGHT.org makes an appearance.

Yes, I know --got to pay for the pleasure.....money already set aside to cover my wave indulgence somewhere on the other coast.

Just hoping I'm back b/4 whatever the Doc is talking about comes to pass.....very ironic -- actually a repeat of the charlie,jeanne and francis years where I was racing back and forth between coasts catching waves and dodgin hurricanes
Hey surfmom!

actually a repeat of the charlie,jeanne and francis years

you're beginning to damage my calm...kidding!

have a good one!
Hey everyone...

Beautiful day here in Jupiter today.
Enjoying a Friday off!
172. BeanTech

Hey Bean!

count yourself lucky, I'm 1 step away from renting a dozer to get rid of the pile of junk on my desk!
hehe

Oh, I still have the piles on my desk...

...just not thinking about them AT ALL until Monday! ;)
Got a few days b/4 I hit the road - just busy getting things set up around here.

Yea Rob, bit nervous about Doc's update..... I don't think any of us want to see any more grief and destruction. I am so grateful Omar went through the Anegada passage - like a pinball-- it could have been sooo much worse.
aubiesgirl --- yeaaaaaa - the running weather has been wonderful... isn't it amazing how much faster you can go when there is less humidity!! I'm lovin' it.
Must be Friday blog is very quiet today
Quoting NEwxguy:
Must be Friday blog is very quiet today

you are right i've noticed too , it's very quiet


CAN WE CONTROL HURRICANES?



WATCH IN HIGH QUALITY
Surfmom,

you seem to enjoy my little rants..LOL

go back & read post 65. RobDaHood
Good afternoon. Anyone have a sat link for the new Atlantic disturbance?
Hey, what do you guys think about my video?
181. captainhunter

No floater yet, but check Atlantic Wide View
on Link
hi,
From St. Croix.

I was finally able to get my cell charged using a car charger. i'm posting via mobile. about 40% of the island has power. I still don't have any power. there were a lot of trees down and some power lines. The east end of st. croix was mostly hit the worst. fortunately, there are no death and it is predicted that 90% of power will be returned to the island by monday. I will try to post some photos of damages as soon I have access to a computer.
hi,
From St. Croix.

I was finally able to get my cell charged using a car charger. i'm posting via mobile. about 40% of the island has power. I still don't have any power. there were a lot of trees down and some power lines. The east end of st. croix was mostly hit the worst. fortunately, there are no death and it is predicted that 90% of power will be returned to the island by monday. I will try to post some photos of damages as soon I have access to a computer.
Quoting futuremet:
Hey, what do you guys think about my video?


I think trying to "control" nature is fruitless.
Quoting BeanTech:


I think trying to "control" nature is fruitless.
I do too
188. IKE
12Z ECMWF...Link
189. IKE
12Z CMC...Link
Surfmom, waist-chest at Satellite Beach and Sabastian might be a little more jacked, but nice groundswell and fairly light winds (10mph). Leaving in an hour!
hi,
From St. Croix.

I was finally able to get my cell charged using a car charger. i'm posting via mobile. about 40% of the island has power. I still don't have any power. there were a lot of trees down and some power lines. The east end of st. croix was mostly hit the worst. fortunately, there are no death and it is predicted that 90% of power will be returned to the island by monday. I will try to post some photos of damages as soon I have access to a computer.
Rob - post 65 was not a rant.....it a more then valid point... it's the truth. a sad truth. When you think that all the media in this country is owned by 4 corporations - you can see how stupid news is allowed to continue. I am so grateful for WU --because it's independent, and because the people who tend to come here are independent thinkers -- we have much more reliable sources & accesses to information. Our freedom here is that we can CHALLENGE AND QUESTION AUTHORITY.
Surfmom, do you ever check wetsand.com? It has good swell and wind forecasting tools which show direction of each. Always has good timing and the site itself is quite simple, so check it out if you never have. Works good for us during front season.
keeping an eye on disturbance near 8n 40w . the area looks very suspicious and i would not be surprise if something were to form there within the next 48hrs
Quoting CaribbeanWave:
hi,
From St. Croix.

I was finally able to get my cell charged using a car charger. i'm posting via mobile. about 40% of the island has power. I still don't have any power. there were a lot of trees down and some power lines. The east end of st. croix was mostly hit the worst. fortunately, there are no death and it is predicted that 90% of power will be returned to the island by monday. I will try to post some photos of damages as soon I have access to a computer.
Just how bad do you think the hurricane damage is? i havn't heard yet
Hi Aubies. Haven't seen you post lately. You been lurking?
futuremet.....call it simple minded -- in the end Nature is in control --always has been --she be the biggest & baddest Mama when she wants to be....or the most benevolent and beautiful
198. IKE
6-10 day temperature outlook shows below normal over the SE USA....




And above normal precip....

192. surfmom

Knew you'd like that!

back to work...
Quoting GatorWX:
Surfmom, waist-chest at Satellite Beach and Sabastian might be a little more jacked, but nice groundswell and fairly light winds (10mph). Leaving in an hour!
OUCH..... I wanna be there NOW ...got to wait till Monday afternoon... but I am soooo ready - I've been dreaming too long... thanks for the teaser LOL
Aubies - thrilled to see you ___ nothing like some blond sunshine on the blog!!!

Back to work-lurk grumble.....
Quoting surfmom:
Aubies - thrilled to see you ___ nothing like some blond sunshine on the blog!!!

Back to work-lurk grumble.....


That reminds me....

I had a keychain once that I gave to an old girlfriend. One side said "How do you keep a blonde busy for hours? (turn over for answer)"
and the other side said "How do you keep a blonde busy for hours? (turn over for answer)"

...priceless :)
Quoting surfmom:
OUCH..... I wanna be there NOW ...got to wait till Monday afternoon... but I am soooo ready - I've been dreaming too long... thanks for the teaser LOL

yeah, my bad, didn't realize you were leaving. Where you headed? Swell will be gone by monday, but maybe some big bad trof will drive some more waves into the e.c.FL not us here in w.c.FL. Oh well, winter is coming and soon we'll be riding the fronts in the frigid Gulf! lol Wetsuit and all! I hate wearing a suit too!
surfmom
Have you ever seen wetsand.com? I asked you b4 the page turned and I don't know if you saw it.
fishing's been great in the last 2 days,alot of ladyfish and jack crevele's,but nothing good enough to keep.I must have caught about 25 fish each day,and although no keepers,I'm lovin it!!!!,water is so nice and clear now as well,keeping one eye to the area off belize...thats spot is going to explode w/development as soon as the drier air and sheer abaides.....You jogged right past me yesterday at about 10:30,I was on my front stairs watering my tomato's,I yelled,but you had earbugs on!!!!
Quoting BeanTech:


I had a keychain once that I gave to an old girlfriend. One side said "How do you keep a blonde busy for hours? (turn over for answer)"
and the other side said "How do you keep a blonde busy for hours? (turn over for answer)"
...priceless :)


I'm blonde so I'm allowed to say that was really funny!
202Beantech... that works for some brunettes too! ask my sons LOL
that blob off africa looks good

paloma in 36-48 hours anyome?
yes, I use wetsand and magicseaweed -- locally for me magic, aurasurf and gulfster are the best....soo if you're every surfing the Lake of Mexico..... that's where to look... we do get it up...but LOL timing is everything
Killing a Hurricane?!?! excuse me?!?!? umm i dont know if you guys realize this, but we need hurricanes! destroying them is inconcievable! Who the hell thought of this?!?! omg, im shocked, no wonder the world is ending!, we are ending it ourselves!
well,

a lot of huge trees are down and power lines down. there are no roofs or buildings blown down. there are reports that 20 boats have sunken. there are also lots of debris on the roads and flooding in area with poor drainage. nevertheless, authorities and all maintenance crews are working feverlishly to bring things back to normal.
203Gator - not sure of which spot yet.... got a couple of places I like.... going to make the calls Monday as I'm driving over -- .... after looking at the flat Gulf for so long I really don't need anything more then waist to chest.... I'm good for early morning --so by my standards ... a flat day for you is something for me. I got my longboard and a terrific fat fish...they'll be something from between Vero and Seb. I'm good at visualizing it to happen. Also bringing my fishing pole in case i get totally skunked... I'm just hoping I score on the atlantic -- (haven't tasted that ocean in so long) & to return to Paloma in the gulf..... there I said it....shame on me... oh gosh I got guilt.

If that happens Portlight.org is really going to be benefiting from my addiction LOL Good thing about King Neptune & horses ... they don't care much what I wearing -- so my perk money is better off in Portlight's donation tray then on my back
Quoting TheTracker08:
Killing a Hurricane?!?! excuse me?!?!? umm i dont know if you guys realize this, but we need hurricanes! destroying them is inconcievable! Who the hell thought of this?!?! omg, im shocked, no wonder the world is ending!, we are ending it ourselves!
NO Worries --- that big old Mama Nature will slap us down b/4 we can mess w/her like that
212. CaribbeanWave

Thank you for your reports and images.
Not nearly as bad as I expected, but plenty bad enough I am sure. Hope things are back to normal for you soon
Caribwave - thanks for the update.... I am very partial to your location -- I was born in the wrong place -- nick name at home is the CaribQueen. I love all of the carib....and I am so relieved, so very relieved we did not witness an IKE repeat on your lovely islands
i hope so surfmom because this world would be boring w/o them, they might cause death and destruction, but it belongs to mother nature. I would hope one day for people to not be killed by them. we have to enjoy them as well. its not always death and destruction, a small cane can be fun, make it a family sctivity to go see a 75mph cane, experiance the beautiful power first hand because i know i would love to, thank god that im getting my A.A in meteorology!!!! go canes!! lol
218. 7544
notice the new cmc run places the fla storm further south this run then yesterday

gfs sorta does the same thing with it .

when is this system suppose to form anyone knows tia
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2008

...OMAR BRIEFLY REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
Quoting TheTracker08:
i hope so surfmom because this world would be boring w/o them, they might cause death and destruction, but it belongs to mother nature. I would hope one day for people to not be killed by them. we have to enjoy them as well. its not always death and destruction, a small cane can be fun, make it a family sctivity to go see a 75mph cane, experiance the beautiful power first hand because i know i would love to, thank god that im getting my A.A in meteorology!!!! go canes!! lol
Kool Aid time
Caribbeanwave: thanks for the posts - glad to hear that it wasn't any worse. Pretty good that electric should be up on Monday.
Off for a while.....youngbuck is 15 today -- and what a glorious, glorious day it is to celebrate.... typical Florida outdoor dining...stonecrabs.... the perks of an October B-day (mangos, fresh chick eggs to trade for the crabs) I love our underground economy LOL
Well, tracker I wouldn't go quite that far....but there is an bigger order in nature that we don't always like or understand. It's not a perfect world and maybe we get 'canes to remind us arrogant humans we are not in control.... I don't know. But it is not good to ever want mayhem.... what we wish for often has a nasty way of turning around and biting us bad
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2008

...OMAR BRIEFLY REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...




Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

17/1745 UTC 30.1N 54.4W T2.0/2.5 OMAR -- Atlantic Ocean
Quoting TheSavant:
that blob off africa looks good

paloma in 36-48 hours anyome?
no but maybe by tue as a sys dev near or just w of jamaica tracks nw towards cayman then cuba on wed then n ne ward after that on wed night thur thur night into s s cen fla bringing rain totals of 75 to 100 mm in a 24 to 36 hr period thats at the moment based upon surface observation current conditions and some model support mainly gem global models stay to this possible dev system which should start showing up by sat 12 z as a dev area of convection just s hati e of jamica in n cen carib.

this is based on current information and can and will change iam watchin

KOTG
Quoting surfmom:
Off for a while.....youngbuck is 15 today -- and what a glorious, glorious day it is to celebrate.... typical Florida outdoor dining...stonecrabs.... the perks of an October B-day (mangos, fresh chick eggs to trade for the crabs) I love our underground economy LOL

Stonecrabs, sigh, only blue crabs up here in NW Fl. Makes one want to drive south to dine!!
OK I'm out --but for the record, I NEVER EVER WISH FOR CANES...... perhaps waves but never 'canes
Quoting surfmom:
Off for a while.....youngbuck is 15 today -- and what a glorious, glorious day it is to celebrate.... typical Florida outdoor dining...stonecrabs.... the perks of an October B-day (mangos, fresh chick eggs to trade for the crabs) I love our underground economy LOL


Happy Birthday "Buck"
Later surfmom
Quoting surfmom:
OK I'm out --but for the record, I NEVER EVER WISH FOR CANES...... perhaps waves but never 'canes


I wish for stonecrab claws :)
231. IKE
18Z NAM...Link

The season is wearing and tearing on me.
Quoting IKE:
18Z NAM...Link

The season is wearing and tearing on me.


Sittin' & a Spinnin'

Seems these models really want to develop something out there, but can't really decide what to do about all that high pressure.

When I was investigating the differences yesterday, it seemed like the biggest differences were in how strong the high pressure was and whether or not any thing develops off N/S Carolina (and if so, when & how strong).

Kinda decided it's still gonna take a while for them to sort it all out.

Meanwhile - nice out.

232. StormW

Thanks Storm.
I wonder if this storm will wander up here or if it will stay where it is. Does anyone know where I can see up to date DOPPLER radar. It would be helpful. With this cold front heading east, i wonder if it might run into Omar.
Quoting theshepherd:
Kool Aid time


That may be, but he does have a point that we need them.

I forget where, but I read that we need hurricanes to pull warm air from the equator. That if there were no hurricanes, the northern latitudes would be uninhabitable.

I'll try to find it.
237. JLPR


I must say thats a large good looking wave but shear is just terrible there =D thank God or that would be a monster right now =P
CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
EN RAISON D'UN MOUVEMENT DE GREVE CE BULLETIN POURRAIT NE PAS ETRE ACTUALISE REGULIEREMENT

Someone translated it as the following
BECAUSE OF A STRIKE THIS NEWSLETTER COULD NOT BE UPDATED REGULARLY

RSMC Reunion warning center is on strike?!
That would terrible if NHC decided to go on strike =S
For what it is worth, there is something about it on wikipedia:

"Although their effects on human populations can be devastating, tropical cyclones can also relieve drought conditions. They also carry heat and energy away from the tropics and transport it toward temperate latitudes, which makes them an important part of the global atmospheric circulation mechanism. As a result, tropical cyclones help to maintain equilibrium in the Earth's troposphere, and to maintain a relatively stable and warm temperature worldwide."

"Tropical cyclones also help maintain the global heat balance by moving warm, moist tropical air to the middle latitudes and polar regions."

Link
Found something even more precise. Might even have been what I read, but don't think so, but it was similar:

"Simply put, hurricanes are part of the earth’s mechanism of global heat transfer. The Earth is perpetually trying to reach a temperature equilibrium. In much the same manner as Arctic Outbreaks bring cold frigid and freezing temperatures to the subtropics in the winter, hurricanes transfer an enormous amount of heat to the northern latitudes in the summer and fall."

"Hurricanes are the most dynamic and destructive of all atmospheric storms. They are also an integral part of the planet’s heat exchange. Without them parts of the northern latitudes would be uninhabitable."


Link
Quoting MichaelSTL:




Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

17/1745 UTC 30.1N 54.4W T2.0/2.5 OMAR -- Atlantic Ocean



Hurricane Noel from 2001 looked similar.
244. IKE
Omar racking up some ACE.
i remember one or two models presented on this blog about 3-4 days ago thought the td would hang around for a wk or so near belise. that is what it seems to be doing.
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Hurricane Noel from 2001 looked similar.


(edited) Ooops - I thought you meant the one last year - LOL
248. KBH
okay its official, barbados has a mini tornado...or as it is being know in the press as 'tornado like activity. Yesterday some areas of Christ Church recorded sudden uplift of trees and roofs. A guy was lifted up in the air as well,...read on... this is serious..as well
http://www.nationnews.com/local/index.php
Quoting StormW:


I was tryin' to keep it simple...LOL!!


Thanks for all that you do StormW. It is appreciated. :)
Interesting little area just S of the SW tip of Haiti that caught my eye. Saw a swirl there earlier.

Small, but growing... heck, has the deepest convection in the Carib!

Link
Afternoon everyone... I came back and Omar was a hurricane again. It just doesn't want to give up.

Also, I updated my blog. The contest continues.
Link
Quoting leftovers:
i remember one or two models presented on this blog about 3-4 days ago thought the td would hang around for a wk or so near belise. that is what it seems to be doing.


CMC and it is has been developing a system there for the 6 of the last 7 runs. GFS is now developing something there for the past couple runs also.
Quoting Seastep:


CMC and it is has been developing a system there for the 6 of the last 7 runs. GFS is now developing something there for the past couple runs also.


Is this the system that the CMC sent into Florida?
254. KBH
the system to the se of windward islands has a better chance of developing, or the other cloud mass in the atlantic
255. KBH
been hearng some thunder activity from the south here in barbados, clouds already creeping over
KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no but maybe by tue as a sys dev near or just w of jamaica tracks nw towards cayman then cuba on wed then n ne ward after that on wed night thur thur night into s s cen fla bringing rain totals of 75 to 100 mm in a 24 to 36 hr period thats at the moment based upon surface observation current conditions and some model support mainly gem global models stay to this possible dev system which should start showing up by sat 12 z as a dev area of convection just s hati e of jamica in n cen carib.

this is based on current information and can and will change iam watchin

KOTG
just a bump of a groundswell in my area, about waist high and light onshore wind
Hey guys!
Here from Puerto Rico. Amazing close call here on the island. Yesterday everyone was breathing a lot easier.
Throughout the night I was watching the radar and the rain was literally falling on the sand at the beach near my house and nothing on land.
VERY lucky. As only an inch or two would have been bad news for eastern Puerto Rico.
Imagine what could have happened... with just one band that passed by, further land slides closed off a road in the town to my south (Yabucoa), and to my north in Naguabo a river had been out of its banks and on PR #31 since Saturday. Also, since Monday morning, highway 53 was closed by Rio Fajardo being out of its banks.
So we were extremely EXTREMELY lucky.

Nothing else out there to worry about, right?
Quoting benirica:
Hey guys!
Here from Puerto Rico. Amazing close call here on the island. Yesterday everyone was breathing a lot easier.
Throughout the night I was watching the radar and the rain was literally falling on the sand at the beach near my house and nothing on land.
VERY lucky. As only an inch or two would have been bad news for eastern Puerto Rico.
Imagine what could have happened... with just one band that passed by, further land slides closed off a road in the town to my south (Yabucoa), and to my north in Naguabo a river had been out of its banks and on PR #31 since Saturday. Also, since Monday morning, highway 53 was closed by Rio Fajardo being out of its banks.
So we were extremely EXTREMELY lucky.

Nothing else out there to worry about, right?
we got 44 days to fine out
Quoting Seastep:


That may be, but he does have a point that we need them.

I forget where, but I read that we need hurricanes to pull warm air from the equator. That if there were no hurricanes, the northern latitudes would be uninhabitable.

I'll try to find it.
Thanks...But, that wasn't my point. Why would you expose your family to 75mph winds when rescue services stop rolling after 40mph sustained, some less. Hard to dodge a sheet of plywood at 75mph.
On the other point, if we didn't have hurricanes, we'd have a dead planet.
G'day everyone, I know this is totally off topic but does anyone watch little britian usa, they have taken the last third of episode 3 off u tube and i want to know what was the sketch all about, it is on HBO, tia wu if you have to cheers
Quoting StormW:
236. Seastep 5:22 PM EDT on October 17, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
Kool Aid time


That may be, but he does have a point that we need them.

I forget where, but I read that we need hurricanes to pull warm air from the equator. That if there were no hurricanes, the northern latitudes would be uninhabitable.

I'll try to find it.


I've never read the article...but yes...hurricanes are natures way of taking excess heat out of the tropics, and re-distributing it to the temperate latitudes...one of Mother Natures ways of balancing heat and cold...just like the Mid Latitude Cyclone.

Look at it in another way...most of you have been here for a few seasons now. What happens (per se), when we see the A/B high weaken, the trades slow down, etc.?

Back later.
Thanks Storm..But the original qoute had nothing to do with their benifit. It was all about life being boring without them and a 75mph hurricane made for a good family outing. That's why I brought out the Kool Aid. That kind of thinking is reckless and unthinking. lol
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we got 44 days to fine out


Plus the out-of-season storms like Olga, Epsilon, Zeta, Otto, Odette, Peter, etc.
true...
we got Olga here last year.
I think the year before or two years before we got another December system.
Quoting hurristat:


Plus the out-of-season storms like Olga, Epsilon, Zeta, Otto, Odette, Peter, etc.
Ditto...But, I'm thinking unless we start getting normal sunspots again, it's going to be a cold early winter. Just my two cents.
266. JRRP

JRRP
uh oh ;>(
Quoting Seastep:
For what it is worth, there is something about it on wikipedia:

"Although their effects on human populations can be devastating, tropical cyclones can also relieve drought conditions. They also carry heat and energy away from the tropics and transport it toward temperate latitudes, which makes them an important part of the global atmospheric circulation mechanism. As a result, tropical cyclones help to maintain equilibrium in the Earth's troposphere, and to maintain a relatively stable and warm temperature worldwide."

"Tropical cyclones also help maintain the global heat balance by moving warm, moist tropical air to the middle latitudes and polar regions."

Link
WEll here's one to print out for my notebook - I'm thrilled to have found this Seastep -- sometimes --especially when the horror of a cane is in our faces...I question Why?? Why??? I read this and it makes sense, and at least this information offers some explanation, value behind the purpose of a cane.
Quoting theshepherd:
Thanks Storm..But the original qoute had nothing to do with their benifit. It was all about life being boring without them and a 75mph hurricane made for a good family outing. That's why I brought out the Kool Aid. That kind of thinking is reckless and unthinking. lol


Don't worry Shep, I think most of us got that. I agree with you.
247 - simple is good too StormW!! Geeze I am so saki'd typing is an adventure
Quoting ftpiercecane:
just a bump of a groundswell in my area, about waist high and light onshore wind
jumping in and out, g'day surfmom
270. surfmom

Geeze I am so saki'd typing is an adventure

I take it the party is going well? (LMAO)

Tell the young buck rob say happy birthday and have a wonderful year.

ps...b careful with the saki...hurts like hell tomorrow...haha
273 - saki - diesel fuel --- the same. Lost my post --on the last post.... Rothfl -- don't think I'm good here for long...
Quoting ftpiercecane:
just a bump of a groundswell in my area, about waist high and light onshore wind
Quoting surfmom:
273 - saki - diesel fuel --- the same. Lost my post --on the last post.... Rothfl -- don't think I'm good here for long...


Some of us are living vicariously through you. Have a great time for all of us!
274. surfmom

too funny!!!!

Won't really expect you on the morning crew tomorrow....have some restraint woman!!!
Here we go again , NHC already mention the area south of Haiti, Omar left his seed, a second entity might be forming and perhaps moving E or NE, following the stirrings currents.
Quoting surfmom:
273 - saki - diesel fuel --- the same. Lost my post --on the last post.... Rothfl -- don't think I'm good here for long...
Bet the hard headed ponies had happy feet this morning?
Quoting ftpiercecane:
just a bump of a groundswell in my area, about waist high and light onshore wind
Quoting keywestbrat:


Hey brat!
Ground Control to Major surfmom .....yo ???
;>)
280. surfmom 7:43 PM EDT on October 17, 2008
Quoting ftpiercecane:
just a bump of a groundswell in my area, about waist high and light onshore wind


yes, and after we hit the quote button we usually type something...(LOL)
284. JRRP
3. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT.
2. A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

hey rob
Surfmom,

think it's ni-nite time...We luv ya!
cya tomorrow.
Quoting theshepherd:
Bet the hard headed ponies had happy feet this morning?
LOL they were so confused to see us at daybreak , they didn't have time to make a plan a be naughty. With the cooler temps. they've got a bit more spunk then in the heat. The race horse broke lose on Tuesday and took off for the barn -- my son rides and tows a horse on each side. When one breaks they all want to break --so chaos is a kind word for the situation. I had to grab the spare, while my son chased after the "warhorse"... in the meantime, horses being herd animals, they all wanted to take off together. The fear with the one breaking lose is that he'd trip up on the halter rope and really get hurt -- It is at these moments that if I didn't love my son I would probably never get on a horse again. We were able to avoid disaster.... but it's sooo hard to say calm and collected. The cooler weather and winds can make the best of horses tune into their "wildness" the racehorse --LOL -- he was so pumped -- he had a good time. Today we had to go out and repeat, mindful that he'd try the same move again -- his way of trying to be alpha.
hey rob been wanting to tell you that your avitar is spooky, (which is cool in aussie slang)
Hi Keywestman --- after my surf pirate week -- your neighborhood is next.... LOL

Good evening Rob... got to do cake and then an early game tomorrow - so nite nite for me as well.

All you nitebirds watch the fort... there's still something in the pot -- mother nature hasn't turned off the stove yet.
Quoting keywestbrat:
hey rob been wanting to tell you that your avitar is spooky, (which is cool in aussie slang)


Thanks brat. Kinda looks like me with the long hair and devilish smile...If you're into anime, it's Vicious from "Cowboy Bebop"
surfmom hope there was a glitch in your typing cus a sheila not a man and a brat to boot
292. Relix
Huh... that cluster of T-storms south of DR look bad again for PR. It can't be, lol. Omar's daughter!
Surfmom,

No problem, enjoy your evening. Good luck with the game. Wait and see mode.
Quoting surfmom:
LOL they were so confused to see us at daybreak , they didn't have time to make a plan a be naughty. With the cooler temps. they've got a bit more spunk then in the heat. The race horse broke lose on Tuesday and took off for the barn -- my son rides and tows a horse on each side. When one breaks they all want to break --so chaos is a kind word for the situation. I had to grab the spare, while my son chased after the "warhorse"... in the meantime, horses being herd animals, they all wanted to take off together. The fear with the one breaking lose is that he'd trip up on the halter rope and really get hurt -- It is at these moments that if I didn't love my son I would probably never get on a horse again. We were able to avoid disaster.... but it's sooo hard to say calm and collected. The cooler weather and winds can make the best of horses tune into their "wildness" the racehorse --LOL -- he was so pumped -- he had a good time. Today we had to go out and repeat, mindful that he'd try the same move again -- his way of trying to be alpha.
Holy cow...You typed all that without an error. We were concerned for a bit, though you spilled your birthday cheer on the keyboard or sumpin' LMAO
How old is the warhorse? Two or two and a half?
Quoting RobDaHood:


Thanks brat. Kinda looks like me with the long hair and devilish smile...If you're into anime, it's Vicious from "Cowboy Bebop"
yea heard you tell another fella that but not familiar with it at all, but love that grin, spooky
Quoting keywestbrat:
yea heard you tell another fella that but not familiar with it at all, but love that grin, spooky


So you're a aussie? Cool country. How long in the keys?
Yes Relix that's exactly what im looking at, is a very interesting little low, we have to keep an eye on it,
rob, been here since 86, love oz, but love the keys, all year diving with out any nasties trying to kill ya
Quoting keywestbrat:
rob, been here since 86, love oz, but love the keys, all year diving with out any nasties trying to kill ya


I hear that. All the Aussie's I've met have been really cool people. Seems like everything there wants to poison you or eat you though, except the roos. Don't mind surf mom, she's a bit off her face at the moment...just a slip of the tongue...we know you're a sheila.
we have a jelly fish called the box and his wicked little sister that you can't see, kill you with in a sec, if you live through that sting it will scar you up pretty bad, thats why I suggested to surfmom to wear panty hose while surfing you won't get stung, but she gave me a hard time, which I can see, she would get laughed off the line up,
kangaroo yumm (homer simpson sound) taste just like steak no fat
Quoting keywestbrat:
we have a jelly fish called the box and his wicked little sister that you can't see, kill you with in a sec, if you live through that sting it will scar you up pretty bad, thats why I suggested to surfmom to wear panty hose while surfing you won't get stung, but she gave me a hard time, which I can see, she would get laughed off the line up,


LOL I remember that now.
tropical atlantic
no areas of interest at this time

stealth mode
wait watch see
Quoting RobDaHood:


LOL I remember that now.


brat, been fun! thanks!

Time to grab a coldie and watch a DVD

nite.
nice chatting with you rob catch ya
Tropical Cyclone Warning #7 (0000z 18OCT)
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1001 hPa) located at 8.1S 68.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The system is reported as moving south-southeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.6S 68.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.8S 66.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.7S 63.6E - 30 knots Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.3S 60.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
========================
The 1636z ASCAT swath confirms that winds near the center didn't reach near gale force winds of 30 knots anymore. 30/35 knots exist however far from the center between 240 km and 370 km in the southwestern quadrant due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures (winds had been recalibrated thanks to 1327z and 1626z Scatterometry). NOAA18 in the Nir channel 3 at 2143z reveals a low level circulation center exposed on the northeastern sector of the main convective activity.

The east-northeasterly vertical wind shear, currently strong, should decrease within the next 24 hours. Upper level divergence is good, sea surface temperatures are of the order of 27-28C (Ocean heat potential is sufficient north of 13S). Environmental condition are favorable to an intensification, however slow. The system evolve between two competing steering flows; equatorward well established westerlies - enhanced by the current active MJO phasis and the twin cyclogensis in the northern hemisphere. and the weak to moderate subtropical ridge easterlies. Within this environment, the system should globally drift rather slowly southwestward. The forecast is issued from the consensus of the available NWP and remains closed of the european ECMWF scenario.
Storm - if you are still around - what do you think about the little disturbance off Jamaica?

reading back on the different storms we've had this year - its like everyone had something unique about it - whatever a storm isn't suppose to do, they did.

Interesting season - in a few years people are going to keep coming back to this season to use as examples of strange storms.
hey zoomiami, I asked about a flare up near haiti few weeks ago and they said it was just a heat storm and would disapate, this seems to be doing the same thing, other than that don't have a clueLink
Hi KWB - someone mentioned it earlier & now nhc has a lttle yellow circle. Doesn't say much about development, but interesting that something has spun up a little, when all was suppose to be quiet.

blog is broke - eating posts.

KWB - just thought it was interesting that NHC has a little yellow circle for the area - didn't think there was really anything out there this weekend.
tropical atlantic
no areas of interest at this time

stealth mode
wait watch see


Interesting that you have no areas of interest but the NHC has three.
314. Relix
Where is that third area of interest moving to?
holey moley there is a yellow blob off jamacia thats why I don't predict, just hang out
316. Vero1
OMAR WAS UPGRADED BACK TO A HURRICANE AT 17/2100 UTC. OMAR IS
LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 53.6W OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM... EAST OF
BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1580 MILES...2540 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Evil Twins LOL
318. Vero1
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WHERE A
NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS SEEN. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A VERY LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-15N
BETWEEN 22W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS OBSERVED ON THE SSMI-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-9N BETWEEN 52W-54W.

319. Vero1
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. ANOTHER 1010 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 73W-75W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF
15N AND E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. A RIDGE IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Quoting keywestbrat:
holey moley there is a yellow blob off jamacia thats why I don't predict, just hang out


No worries, brat, fading on water vapor loop. Watch that cold front. If we get anything it will ride that front up. Don't see it happening yet.
hey rob, yea when I do actually say anything I put up a link LOL, but that little blob is going ni ni until the sun comes up (to sleep) LOL
Quoting keywestbrat:
hey rob, yea when I do actually say anything I put up a link LOL, but that little blob is going ni ni until the sun comes up


yep, if that front makes it through with high pressure behind it, we're golden. Least for a while.

back in semi-lurk mode.
Quoting Relix:
Where is that third area of interest moving to?


Right now seems to be slowly moving ENE litle disturbance no thread rigth now. nice clasic cyclonic spin another wrong way storm?? Please NO!!
Quoting RobDaHood:


yep, if that front makes it through with high pressure behind it, we're golden. Least for a while.

back in semi-lurk mode.
just waiting till the roomy and his date hit the sack then going to hit his rum
Quoting keywestbrat:
just waiting till the roomy and his date hit the sack then going to hit his rum


Ha Ha Ha...been hitting it since about 6:00
sippin though, girlfriend asleep on couch, guess we'll watch the movie tomorrow.
No margarita's tonight but rum and coke will do
Quoting keywestbrat:
No margarita's tonight but rum and coke will do


Mojitos, did I spell that right?
Quoting keywestbrat:
No margarita's tonight but rum and coke will do
just asked for a shot they are watching movies LOL, had to out of fosters
Quoting RobDaHood:


Mojitos, did I spell that right?
yep but just couldn't get into the taste but if it was the last drink on earth I would drink it, that goes for bud as well :)
Quoting StormW:
217. TheTracker08 4:46 PM EDT on October 17, 2008
i hope so surfmom because this world would be boring w/o them, they might cause death and destruction, but it belongs to mother nature. I would hope one day for people to not be killed by them. we have to enjoy them as well. its not always death and destruction, a small cane can be fun, make it a family sctivity to go see a 75mph cane, experiance the beautiful power first hand because i know i would love to, thank god that im getting my A.A in meteorology!!!! go canes!! lol


I did...Gordon, 1994, bewteen Hatteras and the center, 'bout 60 nm from the center, on the Coast Guard Cutter I was on. Got a Grade 1 A/C separation in my shoulder from it. Never healed right. I'm in consatant pain everyday from it. Yeah...lots o' fun.


I also did... Isabel, 2003, In Chesapeake, I wouldn't have guessed that a 130 MPH wind gust could happen in a Weakening Category 2 hurricane.
Shouldn't have been stupid enough to stand outside, required over 4 surgery's and 32 stitches.
Quoting keywestbrat:
just asked for a shot they are watching movies LOL, had to out of fosters


Hate it when that happens! LOL

and since we are supposed to be a weather blog,
Have been looking at the models, and think wether we get a storm or not depends on how they see the strength of the high pressure over the SE and if a storm materializes off N/S Carolina this week. As always, with Florida this time of year, the timing of fronts and strength of the highs is key. Why I don't trust any forecast more than 3 days out.
well here in key west it has been blowing 15knots or more out of the north east, cooled down alot, enough wind to murk up the water which means beer time, or rum and coke, margarita if down town, fantasy fest going on for the next 2 weeks so hang overs won't start until nov LOL (thats when you stop partying and are in recovery mode)
333. BtnTx
Quoting keywestbrat:
we have a jelly fish called the box and his wicked little sister that you can't see, kill you with in a sec, if you live through that sting it will scar you up pretty bad, thats why I suggested to surfmom to wear panty hose while surfing you won't get stung, but she gave me a hard time, which I can see, she would get laughed off the line up,

I heard within the last few months from Dr. Michael Savage on the radio, before sometime after the 1930's people never swam in the ocean. The reason was, that it was because everyone knew that it was dangerous to swim in waters on the beaches and in the oceans.
By all means, get out & enjoy the hurricanes.
Quoting keywestbrat:
... fantasy fest going on for the next 2 weeks so hang overs won't start until nov LOL (thats cause when you stop partying and are in recovery mode)


Always loved Key West back in my musician days. Played at Sloppy Joes, big party, good times. Long drive from here now ie: back of Bourke!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I also did... Isabel, 2003, In Chesapeake, I wouldn't have guessed that a 130 MPH wind gust could happen in a Weakening Category 2 hurricane.
Shouldn't have been stupid enough to stand outside, required over 4 surgery's and 32 stitches.
And I thought going thru Humberto was bad. Hope you and Storm recover from your injuries. Yikes! No I woudnt call even a small hurricane a family event as Tracker did. Humberto went right over us and everybody else he surprised in the middle of the night. We rode him out in a mobile home. The walls sounded like they were collapsing,sounded just like when you step on a soda can to crush it. The rain was blowing horizontally thru the doors hard enough to sting my dumb behind while looking out the window on the door. When the lightening flashed and the transformers blew we could see our giant pines bent double lashing the house. We could also hear them beating the roof. We just knew one of them was going to snap or blow over. All we ended up losing was a water line when a tree uprooted. But he knocked an oak tree down and into the house 2 doors down. And the one fatalatie from Humberto was a man who was killed while standing under his carport watching the storm. His carport collapsed. And he was a ONE. Reported 100 mph gusts. That was not fun. Stay inside a preferably strong structure if you cant get away from these things. Be safe everyone. :)
Quoting BtnTx:
Quoting keywestbrat:
we have a jelly fish called the box and his wicked little sister that you can't see, kill you with in a sec, if you live through that sting it will scar you up pretty bad, thats why I suggested to surfmom to wear panty hose while surfing you won't get stung, but she gave me a hard time, which I can see, she would get laughed off the line up,

I heard within the last few months from Dr. Michael Savage on the radio, before sometime after the 1930's people never swam in the ocean. The reason was, that it was because everyone knew that it was dangerous to swim in waters on the beaches and in the oceans.
thats true but we wear panty hose now while we dive and it works quite well but they don't stop the croc's or the sharks
Quoting RobDaHood:


Always loved Key West back in my musician days. Played at Sloppy Joes, big party, good times. Long drive from here now ie: back of Bourke!
really what band were you in, I have a feeling I may know you, are you tall and slim
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Hurricane ... Omar
Present Satellite picture Omar ... Omar

Tropical Depression ... 16
Present Satellite picture ... TD 16

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Haiti
back of bourke gotta love it, and it takes more than a slab to get there LOL
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
By all means, get out & enjoy the hurricanes.
LOL.TY. I had forgotten about kite boy aka the poster-child for bad decisions.
brat.

it takes more than a slab...

not familiar with that one.
bugger rob, can't say I remember, but the good old days miss them
rob slab = two 12 packs
Quoting keywestbrat:
rob slab = two 12 packs


yeah, sounds about right. Love Aussie slang, but don't know it all.
are the lastest model run showing that same possible development for next week?
Quoting homelesswanderer:
LOL.TY. I had forgotten about kite boy aka the poster-child for bad decisions.


LOL - re my post on page 1 about natural selection!
Okay, here's one for you. While looking at this it brought up a question. Has a hurricane ever survived a trek across the Atlantic and turned south into Africa as a hurricane, or even a tropical storm?
Quoting RobDaHood:


yeah, sounds about right. Love Aussie slang, but don't know it all.
hell I forget most of them, but listen to oz talk radio all the time 2gb out of sydney, my new favorite is fair suck of the sauce bottle LOL
Quoting keywestbrat:
hell I forget most of them, but listen to oz talk radio all the time 2gb out of sydney, my new favorite is fair suck of the sauce bottle LOL


more than their share or the booze?
Quoting keywestbrat:
hell I forget most of them, but listen to oz talk radio all the time 2gb out of sydney, my new favorite is fair suck of the sauce bottle LOL


Like your mate's rum? LOL
Quoting RobDaHood:


more than their share or the booze?
Quoting RobDaHood:


more than their share or the booze?
it means give me a break LOL
I stand corrected.
G'nite brat. Glad to have a new friend.
Quoting RobDaHood:
I stand corrected.
thats alright it is like another language, like i say I can speak 3 of them oz yank and pommy
Quoting PcolaDan:
Okay, here's one for you. While looking at this it brought up a question. Has a hurricane ever survived a trek across the Atlantic and turned south into Africa as a hurricane, or even a tropical storm?
i think this went to Afric. Link
Quoting RobDaHood:
G'nite brat. Glad to have a new friend.
ditto hey thats something I learned here in the usa
ok i am a newbie after hurricane ike i have lost my home, and in anyones honest opinion, what are the chances of another tx hit this season anywhere from galveston to louisiana?
Quoting RobDaHood:


LOL - re my post on page 1 about natural selection!
LOL. I finally found and read your post. I agree.
Quoting messageinabottle:
ok i am a newbie after hurricane ike i have lost my home, and in anyones honest opinion, what are the chances of another tx hit this season anywhere from galveston to louisiana?


Ok, swore I was done for the night, but statisticaly very low. Not impossible, but very unlikely. Sorry for your loss.
Quoting messageinabottle:
ok i am a newbie after hurricane ike i have lost my home, and in anyones honest opinion, what are the chances of another tx hit this season anywhere from galveston to louisiana?
Hi and welcome. I'm very sorry about your home but am glad to see you alright and on this blog. Ike went through my area also. Had the gulf of Mexico in my yard but didnt reach my home just got into my car. I did however lose my home and everything in it to Rita so I understand its a hard time. Been doing a lot of research lkately. I'd say the chances are pretty low for getting another TX hit this season. Since records began the latest a storm has hit Texas/LA border area is october 16. Im hoping this record holds true through this season as well.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Ok, swore I was done for the night, but statisticaly very low. Not impossible, but very unlikely. Sorry for your loss.


=D thank you. i thought so too, just after the year repeat of a major hurricane,{RITA got us too}, & after thius crazy active season i guess one starts to think anythings possible, guess its watch &wait as always!! THANX for your input gnight..
Models still showing the presure to be low in the caribean all week ahead something will develop there.
Quoting messageinabottle:


=D thank you. i thought so too, just after the year repeat of a major hurricane,{RITA got us too}, & after thius crazy active season i guess one starts to think anythings possible, guess its watch &wait as always!! THANX for your input gnight..
Good night. LOL. I found this site after Edouaed. I was getting pretty jumpy from the repeats as well. Cant stop em but Im determined to learn all i can about them. Knowledge is Power I guess. :)
Quoting messageinabottle:
ok i am a newbie after hurricane ike i have lost my home, and in anyones honest opinion, what are the chances of another tx hit this season anywhere from galveston to louisiana?


I would say Texas and Louisiana are safe for the rest of the season, since strong cold fronts would turn any system that formed in the GOM (or Western Caribbean), to move in an eastward direction. Also, remember the Westerlies start to set up across the Northern GOM at this time.

The latest a tropical cyclone ever make landfall in Texas was on October 17, 1938.
thx wanderer, & i am sorry for your loss. i had rita too, just worse damage this round..everyone here is even crying about the recent rain we had. we know we needed it, but just so many living in tents & well you all well know the situation...anyway lets hope we are out of the woods, those systems from that westward moving wave that are on noaa.gov are just making me nervous..lol
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Quoting messageinabottle:
ok i am a newbie after hurricane ike i have lost my home, and in anyones honest opinion, what are the chances of another tx hit this season anywhere from galveston to louisiana?
Quoting stormdude77:


I would say Texas and Louisiana are safe for the rest of the season, since strong cold fronts would turn any system that formed in the GOM (or Western Caribbean), to move in an eastward direction. Also, remember the Westerlies start to set up across the Northern GOM at this time.

The latest a tropical cyclone ever make landfall in Texas was on October 17, 1938.


thanks!!!
yeah i have done all that research, just been an unusually active & UNUSUAL season all together.. & we used to think it would be 10 or more years for a repeat of a major, but some had not even recovered fully from RITA 2005 just 3 yrs ago & now this!! i guess i am a whiner, i know puerto rico, haiti, cuba & florida get pounded all the time, guess we better just watch, whatever will be will be. THANKS!!
bugger pressed the wrong button or something, but in my thoughts and sorry you lost all your belongings and house, hang in there mate she'll be right
Quoting messageinabottle:
thx wanderer, & i am sorry for your loss. i had rita too, just worse damage this round..everyone here is even crying about the recent rain we had. we know we needed it, but just so many living in tents & well you all well know the situation...anyway lets hope we are out of the woods, those systems from that westward moving wave that are on noaa.gov are just making me nervous..lol
Thank you. And i know what you mean. Been watching the models and the fronts moving thru. Its all about timing if something does develope. And I cried my eyes out too seeing the people in the tents and seeing them cry. And the woman on the news whos family is in the tents she put up halloween decorations. She has my admiration and awe. I dont know what I would do in that situation.We were fortunate my parents home was undamaged after Rita so we had a home. I hope you and yours have shelter. Let me know if theres anything I can do.
Quoting keywestbrat:
bugger pressed the wrong button or something, but in my thoughts and sorry you lost all your belongings and house, hang in there mate she'll be right

=D thanks, yeah i know i have my life & my childrens lives. my boss tried to make me stay{i wor in hotel buisness} i told him NO WAY!! mandatory evac or no, when IKE turned from fla & winked at us, i was already packed!! =D glad to be here, just would like a small rest before next season, which hopefully only {if anything} brings a light ts our way!! LOL {hint hint storm GODS!!!}
Quoting PcolaDan:
Okay, here's one for you. While looking at this it brought up a question. Has a hurricane ever survived a trek across the Atlantic and turned south into Africa as a hurricane, or even a tropical storm?


Quoting homelesswanderer:
i think this went to Afric. Link


Interesting, especially since it was fairly close to where Omar is now. Thanks
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Thank you. And i know what you mean. Been watching the models and the fronts moving thru. Its all about timing if something does develope. And I cried my eyes out too seeing the people in the tents and seeing them cry. And the woman on the news whos family is in the tents she put up halloween decorations. She has my admiration and awe. I dont know what I would do in that situation.We were fortunate my parents home was undamaged after Rita so we had a home. I hope you and yours have shelter. Let me know if theres anything I can do.

oh yes i do, i have friends & family!! so we are good, just trying to make heads or tails, just a bit whiplashed if ya will!!;) got my first assistance check & was supposed to replace clothes & stuff & when omar & all those other systems started exploding the other day, i stalled out, didnt want to spend, want to save for yet another evac!! "be it ever so humble, theres no place like home!!"
that area s of hati's sw tip is flaring up again with a secondary area to it's s sw dev convective activity as well day time heating tomorrow may prove to be interesting
Quoting antonio28:
Models still showing the presure to be low in the caribean all week ahead something will develop there.

hola!! coma estas? i see that too, but- the systems that form there usually hit fla at this time right?{not wishing anything on fla} just thought with the steering currents??
Quoting PcolaDan:




Interesting, especially since it was fairly close to where Omar is now. Thanks
Your welcome. Came across that yesterday when I was researching late season storms. To see how many had come our TX way. Thank goodness NONE have yet. LOL. I thought it was odd too had to make sure it wasnt going in the other direction. Seems fitting it was part of that crazy 2005 season. :)
message in the bottle how many kids you have as per post 373 you look no more than 14 maybe 15 in that piture your flying sorry i call it like i see it

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
message in the bottle how many kids you have as per post 373 you look no more than 14 maybe 15 in that piture your flying sorry i call it like i see it


ahaha!! thats awesome, actually dear I am 33 years old & that pic was not even one month before IKE, perhaps it is not I that am young, but u who needs glasses!!!! BUT THANXXXX for the compliments...
Quoting messageinabottle:

=D thanks, yeah i know i have my life & my childrens lives. my boss tried to make me stay{i wor in hotel buisness} i told him NO WAY!! mandatory evac or no, when IKE turned from fla & winked at us, i was already packed!! =D glad to be here, just would like a small rest before next season, which hopefully only {if anything} brings a light ts our way!! LOL {hint hint storm GODS!!!}
I am hopless at telling where the weather is going but you have a good chance of resting easy until next season. hurricane season doesn't usually end until end of Nov, but this is more for us southerners, just keep an eye out and pop in here to find out what is going on cheers
Quoting messageinabottle:

oh yes i do, i have friends & family!! so we are good, just trying to make heads or tails, just a bit whiplashed if ya will!!;) got my first assistance check & was supposed to replace clothes & stuff & when omar & all those other systems started exploding the other day, i stalled out, didnt want to spend, want to save for yet another evac!! "be it ever so humble, theres no place like home!!"
AMEN!! Geesh, I know that reeling feeling. We evaced from Gus, then turned around ran from IKE. Im with you please let us catch our breath. LOL. I guess I'm a whiner and a runner too. Ah well. Glad you have a place to stay. My names Stefanie BTW, without an avatar people sometimes dont know if Im a him or a her. LOL.
Quoting messageinabottle:

ahaha!! thats awesome, actually dear I am 33 years old & that pic was not even one month before IKE, perhaps it is not I that am young, but u who needs glasses!!!! BUT THANXXXX for the compliments...
hang on iam going to get my glasses
have a good night all going to the all new bass por shop on sat
Quoting homelesswanderer:
AMEN!! Geesh, I know that reeling feeling. We evaced from Gus, then turned around ran from IKE. Im with you please let us catch our breath. LOL. I guess I'm a whiner and a runner too. Ah well. Glad you have a place to stay. My names Stefanie BTW, without an avatar people sometimes dont know if Im a him or a her. LOL.

nice to "meet" ya!! yeah we had the false gustav too.. i went to giddings texas both times!! glad i did was a nice lil town, but after a while, u are ready to go home!!! thanx for all ya help!!
Quoting Tazmanian:
have a good night all going to the all new bass por shop on sat
Cool. I havent been bass fishing in months! Enjoy Taz. Good night. :)
Quoting messageinabottle:

nice to "meet" ya!! yeah we had the false gustav too.. i went to giddings texas both times!! glad i did was a nice lil town, but after a while, u are ready to go home!!! thanx for all ya help!!
Nice to meet you too. And youre welcome. :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hang on iam going to get my glasses

=D thanks. man 14 or 15!! thats awesome, i dont even get carded for my rum or tequila here!! anyway thanks for your input--i have other pics i will add of damage & of me to my blog tomorrow, just new today & starting slow!! maybe i will look old in one of those, wouldnt want to disappoint you!!
no disapointment just sometimes strange things happen on these here blogs sometimes not who they say they are


HAND
HAND= have a nice day
LOL. Youre lucky to look so young Message. I'm so old I dont know how to put a picture of me on here or start a blog. And I read the directions!! LOL. I got 10 years on ya and probly a lot more on most other people here. LOL. I'm technologically impaired. As weird AL would say.:)
Quoting keywestbrat:
I am hopless at telling where the weather is going but you have a good chance of resting easy until next season. hurricane season doesn't usually end until end of Nov, but this is more for us southerners, just keep an eye out and pop in here to find out what is going on cheers

& cheers to you. thanks. oh i have been watching here for a while, just decided yall are always so fun & wanted to join in, i am ever watchful, maybe perhaps, a bit too much!! anyway thanks & goodnight.
393. Are those earthquakes? Wow theyve been thru the wringer down there lately.
oh well i am def me, guess i will have to start putting all kinds of household pics on here to prove it. i used to hate pics til after my divorce.. & stef i just learned to use a computer properly in 2005, so no worries love!! I feel alot older than i am & these canes just add to that, i think i look alot better in that pic than daily, but i was super happy on vacation..anyway guys--& ladies i am all weathered out!! thanks for your input keep a watch out & i will be back on tomorrow, gotta go get kids from skating rink!!!somethings ya wish wouldnt go back to "normal"!!
LOL. Good night. Take care. :)
397. JLPR
Nice looking blob south of the Cape Verde islands


and it has a anticlone over it =O

Shear Map Link
Sure looks impressive. Does that have a chance of developing?? Sorry have been doing research on past storms. have a jillion links open to them havent read up last couple days.
399. JLPR
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Sure looks impressive. Does that have a chance of developing?? Sorry have been doing research on past storms. have a jillion links open to them havent read up last couple days.


To me it seems to have a chance
it appears to be separating from the big blob the NHC is watching and its further south avoiding the killer shear more north. I dont know if there is a spin since there aren't good loops of that area available =(
Quoting JLPR:


To me it seems to have a chance
it appears to be separating from the big blob the NHC is watching and its further south avoiding the killer shear more north. I dont know if there is a spin since there aren't good loops of that area available =(
OH thanks. Was just looking for a good satellite of that area myself. No luck so far.
Quoting JLPR:


To me it seems to have a chance
it appears to be separating from the big blob the NHC is watching and its further south avoiding the killer shear more north. I dont know if there is a spin since there aren't good loops of that area available =(


Looks impresive that cape verde wave.
I think I found a loop. Link
Link Maybe this ones better. Hope it helps. Looks like its getting organized.
It is rare to see an active ITCZ this time of the year. Even 2005 wasn't active this time in those region.
405. jride
Ladies and Gentlemen,

I don't have much time to blog and try to solicit a response to this request. If you are interested in helping me... please email me at jasonczerwinski@yahoo.com with any information you may have...

I am an Insurance Adjuster deployed on Hurricane IKE in the Bolivar area, including Gilchrist and Crystal Beach. Most of my claims consist of total losses... some of which (insured) do not have flood insurance...

Moreover, FEMA is denying any help to those who carried any type of insurance. Alot of my insured are in need of assistance that is obviously not being provided through traditional relief efforts. For any of you that have been down to ground zero, you'll agree it looks like a nuclear bomb went off down there.

These people (including primary dwelling residence) have nothing left and are in very real need of some basics.

I'm asking for someone to assist me to help guide them to the right people that can provide some help.

Please forward me any links or information that would assist me in pointing them in the right direction. I haven't been able to get on this blog in a while... but it appears that there are some real relief efforts through some of you. In fact, I've spent 3 years just kind of viewing your comments and learning about weather as I've waited for a storm. Now that it's happened... and work is plentiful... I regret my stance and intend to make an honest effort to educate people in the future about the consequences of what happens. Trust me.... I've met a survivor in person... it's not fun to experience what these people are going through.

Please help me help them....

Thank you. And for those of you that continue to educate: keep on posting.

I've got to get some sleep. Please email me.

God Bless...
OH Hi Dar. Didnt know anyone was here. It sure is active. I didnt know that was unusual for this time of year though. I'm learning more every day. Is there an ITCZ season so to speak?
Hey everyone, been gone for a while been working hurricane Ike in Texas for a while and just got home. It really feels good to be back in Alabama. My heart goes out to the folks left back in texas they have a long road ahead of them. the devastation is pretty bad. especially in bridge city,orange,sabine pass. i couldn't help but cry at some of the houses i got to they where completely gone. They still need out prayers and thoughts.
Is there anything going on in the tropics, that we needddd to beware of? this is the first time i have been on since about the 30th of August.not to bring up bad memories,or nothing just wondeing.
Sheri
Quoting jride:
Ladies and Gentlemen,

I don't have much time to blog and try to solicit a response to this request. If you are interested in helping me... please email me at jasonczerwinski@yahoo.com with any information you may have...

I am an Insurance Adjuster deployed on Hurricane IKE in the Bolivar area, including Gilchrist and Crystal Beach. Most of my claims consist of total losses... some of which (insured) do not have flood insurance...

Moreover, FEMA is denying any help to those who carried any type of insurance. Alot of my insured are in need of assistance that is obviously not being provided through traditional relief efforts. For any of you that have been down to ground zero, you'll agree it looks like a nuclear bomb went off down there.

These people (including primary dwelling residence) have nothing left and are in very real need of some basics.

I'm asking for someone to assist me to help guide them to the right people that can provide some help.

Please forward me any links or information that would assist me in pointing them in the right direction. I haven't been able to get on this blog in a while... but it appears that there are some real relief efforts through some of you. In fact, I've spent 3 years just kind of viewing your comments and learning about weather as I've waited for a storm. Now that it's happened... and work is plentiful... I regret my stance and intend to make an honest effort to educate people in the future about the consequences of what happens. Trust me.... I've met a survivor in person... it's not fun to experience what these people are going through.

Please help me help them....

Thank you. And for those of you that continue to educate: keep on posting.

I've got to get some sleep. Please email me.

God Bless...


Hey I just made it back from Texas and trying my best to get back there to help, but cant find anyone that needs help in adjusting I did boats but i can learn anything I just want to help these poor folks. I think it's awful what FEMA is doingl. my email is sheriparker1@yahoo.com if ya wanna talk. I know where your coming from. It's breathe taking.

sheri parker
Look that we have a SFC low in the caribbean!
Looks like were gonna have paloma and rene in the next 48-72 hours thats just my opnion who agrees with me
411. 7544
Quoting TheSavant:
Looks like were gonna have paloma and rene in the next 48-72 hours thats just my opnion who agrees with me


yeap and current model runs still have something over fla for the rest of this month they might see two stroms to wrap it up
well there are a few things to keep an eye on
Link
Just in from the NHC...."nothing is allowed to form the rest of this season". Details at 10am
414. ackee
the shower flair up east of jam will that develop any further ?
jride.....someone will be in touch with you ASAP
!

Quoting TheSavant:
Looks like were gonna have paloma and rene in the next 48-72 hours thats just my opnion who agrees with me


Is that from the cape verde islands disturbance and the caribbean disturbance?
417. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OMAR...LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

1. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
REMAINS CENTERED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM
NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

2. A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

3. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA




43 days...
17 hours...
19 minutes and it's over.
Current surface analysis:


Photobucket

419. KBH
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Is that from the cape verde islands disturbance and the caribbean disturbance?

or is that the disturbance coming from south america? I reckon that cloud mass now coming from the atlantic over Guyana will re-emerge in the caribbean sea in a few days with more TS activity...
420. IKE
Chamber of Commerce weather at my house....

Today
Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly sunny. Patchy fog early. Highs 76 to 79. North winds 5 to 10 mph increasing to around 10 mph.

Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows 48 to 51 inland and 52 to 56 along the immediate coast. North winds 5 to 10 mph decreasing to around 5 mph.

Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 79. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Good morning,

65F in Charleston - that is also the forcasted high. Very humid, 70% chance of rain.
Looking forward the dry air on the other side of the front!
Hi Everyone - Shortly after my last post here we were hit with extremely heavy rains followed by major flooding in many areas of the island, including our home, Jolly Harbour. The picture Jeff posted of the helicopters is just a sample of the force of the flooding which was strong enough to carry boulders, vehicles, and even homes from their positions. We had actually checked on those helicopters to ensure that they were still tied-down at around 4:30am and all was fine so the damage you see came as quite a shock when the call came in just a few hours later that they had been washed away. It's unfortunate that Antigua had already had so much rain that week or the ground would have possibly been dry enough to soak up more of Omar's rains...
Will return this evening to see what those yellow circles have done.
Y'all have a great day.
424. IKE
55 degrees at my house this morning....feels refreshing outside....

Tropical season is over, here.
425. IKE
Shear is once again protecting the USA...

Morning KEHC
55 F..N at 14+17Kts with light drizzle here..going down to 48 tonight...guess we are on the North Side of the front!!!
back to back two possible development areas in the carib it will be interesting to follow this
Good Morning, Temp here in Macon Ga is 55 F with overcast skies and 96% humidity, what the locals here call "Heavy Air".
Not sure you have accurate information Jason. I got this portion from the FEMA website about Hurricane Ike. You can find the press releases on FEMA's website.

...It may be that FEMA cannot complete the disaster assistance evaluation process until insurance claims are settled and submitted to FEMA for review. Insured applicants may still be eligible for disaster funds.

Federal disaster aid is designed to help with uninsured or under-insured losses caused by a disaster.


So while it's likely many folks are getting rejected from FEMA for one reason or another, either you are mistaken or FEMA is out right lying. If you can find a FEMA staffer who will tell you that insured folks get nothing no matter what I would call CNN! ;-)

As far as people needing help I would point people who need immediate help to the Red Cross or the Salvation Army - they can handle any immediate needs.

Good luck out there - I've been in your shoes many times and I understand it's rough.
jride....please WU mail me ASAP.....
The disturbance east of Jamaica is too far north right now and taking on shear. Best chance of development is if it moves southwest, if it moves any farther north it's dead. CMC gives it a west then NW run, GFS shows a suicide north track.
good morning all
vort....I'm all over jride.....
434. dae
Quoting FLdewey:
Not sure you have accurate information Jason. I got this portion from the FEMA website about Hurricane Ike. You can find the press releases on FEMA's website.

...It may be that FEMA cannot complete the disaster assistance evaluation process until insurance claims are settled and submitted to FEMA for review. Insured applicants may still be eligible for disaster funds.

Federal disaster aid is designed to help with uninsured or under-insured losses caused by a disaster.


So while it's likely many folks are getting rejected from FEMA for one reason or another, either you are mistaken or FEMA is out right lying. If you can find a FEMA staffer who will tell you that insured folks get nothing no matter what I would call CNN! ;-)

As far as people needing help I would point people who need immediate help to the Red Cross or the Salvation Army - they can handle any immediate needs.

Good luck out there - I've been in your shoes many times and I understand it's rough.
vort....I'm all over jride.....

OK pardner!
Go get em!!

436. dae
Jason, Fldewey is correct, almost everyone will receive a denial letter in the first stage. In order for FEMA to process claims they will first need to have all insurance documents, including payoffs to evaluate what the persons eligibility is. The people MUST continue to visit a Disaster Recovery Center with all updates from thier insurance company and to check on the status of thier claim. This process is needed to avoid fraud and people double dipping, the bad part is it takes time.
RE:426. MissNadia

G'morning to you too.
Late responding, I am getting ready to head out for the day.

good morning all!
440. dae
Good morning StormW
Presslord,
Are we set up for monthly commitment? We just let you know how much we will commit and send it each month (check or paypal)- Do we need to do anything else?
KEH....Thanks!!!! Just let us know your monthly commitment by e-mailing to presslord@aol.com....then send a check or use PayPal @ www.portlight.org...


Lovely day in the Lowcountry, huh?
unfornately even though i feel like dr doom i dont think we will have to deal with fema and all their problems shortly. tax income (federal state muni) are all falling rapidly and its only the beginning of a recession. shortly there will be not enough money to go around. so only the divine know what might happen?
RE:442 Presslord
Not a chamber sort of day - but tomorrow will be!
Hi Ho, Hi Ho, it's off to work I go.


just came from post office, sent another care package out to tx, come on guys, get in your closet and your neighbors', towels-blankets-sheets, there are so many in need out there and it take $12 to ship it, see storm junkie blog and emmy rose for addresses, please reach down and help as much as you can and, together, we can make a difference, jo
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
just came from post office, sent another care package out to tx, come on guys, get in your closet and your neighbors', towels-blankets-sheets, there are so many in need out there and it take $12 to ship it, see storm junkie blog and emmy rose for addresses, please reach down and help as much as you can and, together, we can make a difference, jo



Amen Jo!

This is always the time period after a storm when the true and desperate needs surface.
Not that the immediate needs after the actual storm are not important....but after a month to six weeks the media has moved on and donations always fall off because the needs are not being discussed regularly in your face like they are immediately during and after the disaster.

Please help by doing whatever you can folks.
There are many that have nothing....and nowhere to turn!
Morning Storm!
Just jumping back in for a moment - then I am literally out the door.

I am not sure how cold it gets along the GOM coast, but I am guessing that it gets to at least sweater weather. We probably need to keep that in mind.

Presslord
, would it be possible to let us know if/when a truck will be leaving a specific area. That way, if anyone from that area, has things from their closet that can be contributed, they can send it with the truck, otherwise mail it as HobeSoundShudders (RE:445) suggests.

I will check back for the following posts when I return home.

Thanking you in advance
Morning All!

Feeling fairly safe this morning 'cause AVILA said so :) (well, did check it out for myself but always feel better when Avila agrees)
Front seems to be drying out nicely.

Hope everyone is having as nice a morning as we are in Central FL Will be in semi-lurk mode most of the day.
425. IKE 8:22 AM EDT on October 18, 2008
Shear is once again protecting the USA...

Mentioned this a few days ago infact here is the 06z GFS windshear forcast which continues to show a very hostile environment around florida and most of the gulf.In my personal view theses conditions are not going to change till 09 season.
"This is always the time period after a storm when the true and desperate needs surface.
Not that the immediate needs after the actual storm are not important....but after a month to six weeks the media has moved on and donations always fall off because the needs are not being discussed regularly in your face like they are immediately during and after the disaster.

Please help by doing whatever you can folks.
There are many that have nothing....and nowhere to turn!"




Amen again!!!!!!! We are finding this to be the case...these have truly become the "Forgotten People..."
Don't anyone freak out cause it is just an illusion, but on watervapor imagery right now, the blob near Jamaica looks like a little baby hurricane.
Oh-Oh, she who must be obeyed just walked in wearing her garden gloves, saw me at the computer, gave me one of those "cold front" looks, and turned without a word being spoken. Have two choices, am making the wise one, be back later!! hahaha
Stormjunkie just walked into my office and greeted me with: "Good morning geriatric elder significant other...."

he's fired....
Well Ike, were was that shear for Ike and Gustav? As you know, the USA got screwed over after 2 years of luck this year.
re: "Good morning geriatric elder significant other...."


so solly, please....truth hoits!!

xxoxoxo jo
Also I'd watch the Western Caribbean, shears low.
Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie just walked into my office and greeted me with: "Good morning geriatric elder significant other...."

he's fired....


Don't fire him just yet but tell him Rob said "Be Nice!"
speaking of "old news" WHERE is press-in-a-dress??

jo ^_^
too much shear
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
speaking of "old news" WHERE is press-in-a-dress??

jo ^_^


Halloween's coming and aparently dr. M thinks it's "That Scary"
The dress photos were shot last Saturday...Dr. Masters has them and, when he quits laughing, he'll post them....I suspect he'll get them up as a Halloween treat.....
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Presslord,
Are we set up for monthly commitment? We just let you know how much we will commit and send it each month (check or paypal)- Do we need to do anything else?


Twas easy as pie!

I was planning on starting in November but what the hey -- now's as good a time as any.
re: Halloween treat.....

we will be the judge of THAT....! jo
The end is near for sure.Its been a tretuous season for the entire caribbean and the united states and to be honest iam hopeing this season is all but done.
Morning fellow Wunderbloggers!!!!,
just my thoughts about the possibilty of drier air abading the eastern gulf states by mid-week!!!


As a low closes off over the middle of the country mid-week the surface flow over the eastern half of the US w/turn southerly,greatly increasing the moisture over the eastern GOM,bringing up a tropical airmass as sheer should become favorable as the trough lifts out.....now, sheer forcasts are not even close to a perfect science and I would not put a great deal of faith into any sheer forcast longer than 72hrs out...I still give the eastern gulf states a 50/50 chance of a TC effecting the area,possibly a TS or a TD but a hurricane is about a 20% chance...JMO
Good morning everyone. Any comments on the convection south of Haiti?
morning adrian!!!stormw!!!!....wouldn't the closed low thats forcast mid-week over the central plains relax sheer over the gulf as the UL and LL flow turns Southerly?????
JadeInAntigua

Glad that you made it through okay.
morning
There is evidence of some form of cyclonic turning near 9n 46w . there is little vorticity in the area according to the 850mb vorticity map. there is also very little low level convergence and wind shear is about 15 knots. however there is a considerable amount of upper level divergence. could this be a precursor of some form of tropical development. the qs of the area shows only straght line winds
Just a little nack in my mind, weren't people calling this the end of the season a week ago, then a few days later a Category 4 Hurricane pops up in the Caribbean?
Hey everyone...

I know most of you are moving on to the new disturbances. Just thought you'd all like to see how Omar affected some of us a little further south.

Here is a video of the storm surge from Omar on Thursday in Dominica, W.I.

Thanks everyone for staying on top things that affect us. And the best of luck through the end of the season.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Tropical Storm ... Omar
Present Satellite picture Omar ... Omar

Present Satellite, Area of Interest BOC/West Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Haiti
hurricane season as we know it might change due to global warming.
Quoting leftovers:
hurricane season as we know it might change due to global warming.

I think it already has. There is also evidence that shear will dramatically increase due to global warming thus offsetting some of the effects of warmer sst's.
Quoting GatorWX:

I think it already has. There is also evidence that shear will dramatically increase due to global warming thus offsetting some of the effects of warmer sst's.


Correct me if I am wrong.. we have had what... two of the busiest Hurricane seasons on record, in the last... 4 years?

Does not that fact alone blow your theory right out the window?

Omar degenerates to a tropical low. yet it still carries an eye. lease expain?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Correct me if I am wrong.. we have had what... two of the busiest Hurricane seasons on record, in the last... 4 years?

Does not that fact alone blow your theory right out the window?



Yea, soon to be 3. 2003 with 16, 2005 with 28, and soon to be 2008 with 16.
goodmorning all. thanks to everyone that helped answer my questions late last night. seems with the shear{I HOPE}& teh troughs that will come & go, the southern Gs of tx has an end to its season..i will still be on as much as I can, this blog has really helped me alot even before I joined. Today is the first public joint venture in Bolivar to aid in clenup & rebuilding. Anyone who could not make it in person there is a website rebuildbolivar.com , i think its run by a church out there & other area organizations. The erosion was already horrible out there & the riptide damage alone is phenomonal! Just alot of devastation there as you all know. Glad for the calm weather now, and an early end to the season. =DD
Quoting stoormfury:
Omar degenerates to a tropical low. yet it still carries an eye. lease expain?


if you are looking at the visible imagery it give the illusion of an eye. Look at water vapor and you'll see that there is no closed circulation. I think what you are seeing is dry air in the center of a remnant low with some thin clouds swirling around the west and south side giving the illusion of a closed eye.

Sat images can play tricks on you.

hey message how you doing this morning?
hey rob,
Quoting keywestbrat:
hey message how you doing this morning?

Hey! i am good thanks, looking at a beautiful day here, trying to decide what to do with the rest of it, besides my addiction to this blog LOL!! & you? how are you? My names Heather by the way...
480. messageinabottle

Glad to be of service, ma'am. Thanks for the update. If you know of needs that are not being met, contact "presslord" by WUmail.
Quoting messageinabottle:

Hey! i am good thanks, looking at a beautiful day here, trying to decide what to do with the rest of it, besides my addiction to this blog LOL!! & you? how are you? My names Heather by the way...
gorgeous day here to, going down to goombay to get some meat on a stick and a cold one later
Quoting RobDaHood:
480. messageinabottle

Glad to be of service, ma'am. Thanks for the update. If you know of needs that are not being met, contact "presslord" by WUmail.

=D will do sir. will do.
Quoting keywestbrat:
hey rob,


Greetings from the "Billabong back of Bourke"
Quoting keywestbrat:
gorgeous day here to, going down to goombay to get some meat on a stick and a cold one later


good plan - phone call - back soon
Quoting keywestbrat:
gorgeous day here to, going down to goombay to get some meat on a stick and a cold one later

sounds gooooood!!! =D THANKS to IKE<-- =0, our state fair was cancelled, so all we have to look forward to here is HALLOWEEN & beautiful fall days...& a few cold ones ourselves... have a great saturday!!
Quoting StormW:
messageinabottle,

Good day!

And a good day to you sir, Thank you.
493. KBH
looks like things are getting back to normal in the carib. We're having a sunny and actually fairly breezy day in B'dos
494. KBH
I am beginning to doubt the negative impact of shear on hurricanes, several of the recent hurricanes still developed on strong shear. it might simply be more difficult to predict development of hurricanes
Wow, patterns have really changed quickly last 12 hrs.

30kts of shear all the way to the keys
20kts half-way down the Yucatan.

Starting to think they've got ex TD16 tethered to a flagpole or something.
...and the GFS changes it's game plan yet again.

Maybe no "Bonedog Effect" after all.