WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Caribbean disturbance very unimpressive; Arizona watches Otis

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2005

Caribbean disturbance
The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea has lost almost all of its deep convection this afternoon, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. Surface pressures are still falling over this area (see the pressure plot from buoy 42056 about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico), and the disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation. However, unless the disturbance can fire up some more deep convection by midnight tonight, it will probably totally fall apart and no longer be a threat to the Gulf Coast.

Wind shear over the system is mostly unchanged at 5 - 10 knots, but a slight bit of extra shear from easterly winds blowing from the Yucatan Peninsula has disrupted the system this afternoon. There is no real change to the forecast--shear is expected to remain the same or decrease as the system moves northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba. Given the disturbance's almost total lack of deep convection, Sunday is the earliest I would expect it to be able to develop into a depression. The odds are now 40% at best that this system will develop into a depression at all.

If the system does manage to develop, the Mexican Gulf Coast or Texas look like the most likely targets. The GFDL, which forecasted intensification into a Category 1 hurricane with last night's run, now says the disturbance won't develop at all. Only the Canadian model thinks the disturbance will develop. This model takes the system into the Texas/Mexican border region on Tuesday.


Figure 1. BAMM and GFDL track forecasts.

Hurricane Otis threatening Baja and Arizona
Arizona and Mexico's Baja Peninsula are watching Hurricane Otis, which is strengthening as moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Otis is currently a Category 1 hurricane with top winds of 85 mph, but is steadily strengthening, and could attain Category 3 status on Saturday. A wind speed of 46 mph with a gust to 61 mph was reported at Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula today.


Figure 2. Hurricane Otis.

Otis is taking a path very close to the Baja coast, where a narrow tongue of warm water will enable it to maintain hurricane intensity at a much further north point than most East Pacific hurricanes are able to. A hurricane watch has been issued for much of the Baja Peninsula, and this will be upgraded to a hurricane warning on Saturday. Otis is expected to cross the Baja Peninsula Sunday, and quickly weaken to a tropical storm as it moves up the Gulf of California towards Arizona. By Monday, the remains of Otis should cause 3 - 5 inches of rain to fall over southern Arizona, creating flash flooding problems.

TD 19
The tropical disturbance about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands developed an impressive blow-up of thunderstorms near its center of circulation this afternoon. With good spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels beginning to form, NHC decided to upgrade this system to Tropical Depression 19. This depression has a favorable environment to strengthen, and will become Tropical Storm Stan on Saturday, and probably Hurricane Stan early next week. The system is expected to move slowly northwest for the next five days and not threaten any land areas.

Southeast U.S.
Several of the global computer models continue to forecast that a tropical storm may form near the Bahama Islands on Monday or Tuesday. Any system forming in this region would be forced westward or west-southwestward into the Southeast Coast by a strong ridge of high pressure building in. There are no signs yet of any development occurring in the Bahamas, and the chances of a tropical storm forming in this region as forecast are probably around 20%.

Hawaii
Tropical Depression Kenneth dissipated 35 miles east of the Big Island. The remnants of Kenneth will bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding to the islands Saturday.

China
Super Typhoon Langwang, a small but intense typhoon with 140 mph sustained winds, is headed towards China and may hit Taiwan as a Category 3 storm on Sunday. Longwang is expected to gradually weaken but still hit mainland China on Monday as a Category 1 storm.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The GFS is showing a much more westward path for the newly sorming African TD than the GFDL is. Though I have no idea which is correct.


SJ, I still see the east coast system on the UKMET and CMC, plus a hint of it in the GFS.
I dont think that anyone really knows what any storm is going to do this year untill it is a few days out from land fall.
I dunno sworn, from what I can tell the models are pretty good on storm path up to about 2-3 days into the future...then they drop off.

From looking at the general setup, it seems that TD19 will have a good chance to miss the first weakness in the ridge to his north and meander for a while.
Amen to that Geschworen! I still have half of my plywood boards up and have not repaired the back fence yet. No point.
The forecast track is basically northwest, and gone. We may actually get through this season without a true Cape Verde storm. Since it's already late in the Cape Verde season.

Typhoon Longwang.. My minds in the gutter with that name, I'm sorry. lol.

And Otis is looking nice. Depending on how it moves in that narrow warm water strip, it could be big for AZ, or California.
Carbo04, Irene was a true Cape Verde storm, but it made no landfall. Emily can also be put in that category.
I don't consider Emily a Cape Verde storm. I guess Irene is, but I'm talking real Cape Verde storms. Hugo type all the way from right by the cape verde islands type storms.
Any chance the disturbance by the bahamas will go up to TS status and if so, what direction will it take?
the spin everyone sees near 60W 20N is a upper level cold low and nothing will be able to form near it!! Saw a lot of post about that.... just thought i would let you all know.... my first post btw nice to meet everyone!!!

Clyde
welcome, clyde! :)
I wander if anything will hit South Florida? Anyone have any thoughts about it?
i hav updated my blog

Posted By: ClydeFrog at 9:43 PM GMT on September 30, 2005.

the spin everyone sees near 60W 20N is a upper level cold low and nothing will be able to form near it!!


Thanks Clyde, we need to know about that stuff.

Could you explain how you could tell that, and maybe post links to your sources of data?

still waitin on clydefrog's links
an upper levellow can form a cyclone. it has happened once this year already. if u don;t belive me look it up
Caneman,

Keep your eyes on 25N 60W because, IMHO, that currently looks like the best chance.

The models vary from nothing, to lotsa rain hitting FL, all the way to a possible TD or TS hitting Northern Florida. However, as lefty has mentioned numerous times, intensity is hard to predict.

What TWC says:
"Another area of disturbance east of the Bahamas has an area of low pressure associated with it and may affect the Southeast Coast by early next week. With high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south along the Atlantic Coast, look for showers and windy conditions from the Carolinas to Florida even in advance of the tropical system."

The GFS is calling for quite a system to have formed off the coast of Africa four days from now. This is NOT TD 19, but a different system. What is scary about it is that it may be further south than TD 19.
Wait a second. Isn't TD 19's forecasted track going the same direction that Irene originally had?
CLyde, actually cold upper lows can transition to warm core systems--but it takes a long time, at least 3 days for that to happen.
Clyde is correct that nothing could form near the cold upper low.
right and the models from a system from the cold ull. and if u notice the convection had been building with the ull. thats why it must be watched
Tornadoty, that ones seems to have a much better chance at a westward track. I didn't think much would come of what is now TD19, but he's soon to have made a name for himself!

Now with the other one supposed to come off of Africa, much closer to 10N, he/she may get to travel much further wests than TD19.

Yes, I think the famous/infamous Brazil hurricane formed from a detached ULL?
All the REALLY bad ones this year (minus Dennis) have had female names (Emily, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita, Tammy?). Maybe we should only use male names from now on (no offense intended to anyone).
Good evening all..Lefty you are right on with the ULL
NE of Puerto Rico.LinkThat is where our attention should turn to.The caribbean is dead for my money.
awwww the blob is dying in the carribean.
Even though having no tropical activity since Rita IS GOOD, the SSTs & total heat content available to fuel future storms has rebounded nicely in the Gulf of Mexico. We may be a week a way from having the same ocean heat levels as when Rita was in the Gulf. The Western 1/3 of the Gulf are about the same as before Rita's rage.
I fear another Opal-type situation in the Gulf if a storm gets going there.
Looks like tropical cyclone activity could finally be picking up over the next few days, after our all-too-brief respite. During this relatively "quiet period", I would like to post a couple of links under the heading "Katrina Stories You Probably Did Not See in YOu Local Newspaper"

1. Escape from New Orleans
Two paramedics who had been attending an EMS conference in New Orleans tell their story of survival in Lake George. Lied to by cops, threatened and robbed by sheriffs, totally ignored by FEMA. Link: Link

2. How We Survived the Flood
By CHARMAINE NEVILLE

This is a transcript of an interview Charmaine Neville, of New Orleans's legendary Neville family, gave to New Orleans media outlets on Monday, September 5.
Link

3. "America's Shame"
By VIJAY PRASHAD
A political analysis of the failure of emergency management in the wake of Katrina.

Link

I am sure this last article will be very controversial, but Dr. Prashad has some very interesting insights.

From Accuweather.com

A tropical wave along 68 shows little sign of development. An upper trough of low pressure interacting with a tropical wave to the northeast of Puerto Rico will have to be watched for slow development over the weekend. This feature could be destined for the Southeast coast of the United States next Tuesday or Wednesday. Another area of disturbed weather southwest of Bermuda will shift west and could juice things up along the Southeast Coast early next week.

Looks like there may be two Atlantic systems the E coast needs to watch. The ULL and an area SW of Bermuda-where all the convection is to the WNW of the ULL.
SJ, I'm on the coast, south of you...seems like the models have been hinting at some east coast development for 2-3 days now...but it's not happening, or it's just taking it's sweet time..
i am her in sonora ca and i got a 29.75 in and Falling what would that make the mb any one no?
Aquak the models should show slow devlopment also. THe ULL would take time to warm up so it would still be another day or two before it would look like a depression and as for the area SW of Bermuda, I see the convection, but this was the first talk I heard of that area.

Watch both this weekend. That is when devlopm,ent would be expected.
1014 and some change 8888.
just get us through october9 and I'll be happy as a clam.
Not sure where the next one will originate. Only know the favored areas for rain. They are Galveston, Ga.,S.C. border,Delaware, Fla. panhandle. These areas will probably get the next rain and/or tropical weather systems.
29.75in is 1007.5 mbs
wow it is now 29.74 and TD 19 has 29.73 what is going on her in ca any one no?
Sorry lefty, you are right. I was looking at 29.975.
couple things 88889g. firts there is a weak low pressure system over southern ca, a hurricane to the south of that near baja and this time of day the prtessure starts to drop. 29.75 is not that low. just shows u how weak the td 19 is.
lol its cool sj. thats why i am here lol
So lefty, when you thinking about the ULL making it down. Tomorrow night?
so is ca going to get a hurricane that is cool so how far can the mb her in ca go?
dunno sj. it may never happen at all. we need to just watch it and see
AHH..Back from dinner at the Florida Yacht Club...Yum
Did notice a stiff wind from the N.E. though.
At least it looks like TD19/Stan will be a fish-spinner...but the Caribbean wave seems to remind me of Opal more and more (although the Gulf is pretty used up after Katrina and Rita)
crazy, the eastern gulf might be hurtin but not the western gulf where this system might go. so it has the "potential" to develop into something the upper winds and timming will be key

here is the heat content of the gulf

and if she got over the deep eddy with good upper wind support she could explode intoa cat3 or higher real quick. that is something i doubt but something u need to see. it was a deep eddy like that that spawned both katrina and rita . so whilewe may not see on of the most intense canes, the gulf by no means is hurting

here are the actuall sst

Lefty..Is the lack of heat content in the NE Gulf directly related to the shallow waters off the coast of Florida?
that in the upwelling by both canes this year. it pushes the cooler waters north and east. but those tempsand the heat content of the gulf has been rebounding and quickly

here it is after rita

sorry lets try that again

after rita



and here it is now

I don't know...There is a little change but not much.
Plenty of blue in both frames.
that shows what i was trying to tell weatherwanabe, that with the heat in the carribean beong what it is right now, mainly due to lack of tropical systems, that the gulf loop current, which is fed by the carribean, would pull lots of deep hot water back into the gulf and rather quickly. as you can see its only been 5-6 days and the loop is almost as strong as it was when rita moved over it and blew up into a 897mb cat 5 monster, so any tropical system that gets into the gulf with good upper air conditions will have plenty of heat to draw from. thats why the season ends nov 30 and not oct 1. we still have 2 months to go and any system that gets into the gulf has the ability to become a major cane.
The loop current shows up well....like a thumbprint.
well here u go than ej. this is what it lookedlike befor rita hit it. and it was the yello part that she moved over and blew up into a cat 5 monster. so the building back of the gulf loop is what is key. now we are not talking bout a cat 5. we are talking cat 3 or 4and any system that movesover either of the deep pools will have a chanceto blow up


now there is noticile heat loss but its also only been 5-6 days. i said it would take 2-3 weeks to get to the point it was befor rita. here is another image. this shows the loop. its the depth of the 26 degree isotherm, or the temp needed to maintain atleast a cat1. u can see the colder parts are sghallow but most of the gulf is atleast 26 degree to great depths. that is why it can sustain a cat3 maybe cat 4 even over some of the cooler parts



I don't dispute the fact that a cane can develop in the gulf this time of year.I lived in Tallahassee when Opal made an appearance west of there. If you look at the NW caribbean in both frames it is clear that the content in that area is on the wane so while the loop current will pull warm water from the caribbean, the water will not be as conducive for a major cane.
To me, the Gulf situation has Opal written all over it.
wow sonora has a 29.73 in or 1007mb this like TD19 has 29.73in or 1007mb this is cool i think i have a hurricane comeing now that would be more cool for sonora ca
I hope not tornadoty..
the key is ej, that the blue areas will not intensify a cane above a cat 3, they can a major cane already at that level. as long as its not moving like 5 mphs. also u want to see the 2 deep eddy's thatthat are rebounding, those are the areas that generated both rita and katrina. remebr everyone saying rita would have no chance with the heat content of the gulf to be as strong as katrina. well they were wrong and the heat content map can be a lil decieving. i am more focused on the buidling deep waters that are very warm and deep and have rebounded nicely
wow torn ur so right. here u guys this is the link on the anylasis of opal and sounds like the past 4-5 days of the blobs life. wow so interesting

Link
Upper lows can and do become tropical systems, but the development takes a good while.
Still the same old tired SST/TCHC arguement going on, I see.
usually the ULL needs some lower level circ. to come by... I use the models that are available from FSU... ( i hate fsu!!! i go to UF) but anyway im just a meteorology buff but work as MT in a lab, i have a BS in CHEM. i asked dr jeff about the spin to confirm what i said previously and he agreed.
very very low pressure if any at all
With our luck and the way this season has been going, it will be Opal only stronger.
Go Gators!
I was wondering about the system that the most recent NOGAPS runs brings up from Panama towards Florida. I don't see any of the other models picking it up.
I pray you are wrong tornadoty!!! Don't need anymore around here. Feel guilty even saying that after Katrina and Rita. Wish they would go in an uninhabited area.
What is ULL?
88888 the low pressure you are seeing is from a thermal low. The hot air associated with the Santa Ana winds is creating its own low pressure. This happens frequently in the desert southwest--places like Yuma frequently have pressures in the 1002mb-1007mb range--but it just means the air is really hot, not that there is a storm around. The thermal lows help pull in the marine layer that usually keeps Los Angeles and San Diego mild in the summer.
ULL = Upper Level Low
And on a more cosmic scale, since we don't have any active threatening tropical systems, I thought I would post this:
http://skyandtelescope.com/observing/ataglance/article_110_1.asp
I pray like the dickens that I am wrong to. I was just making an observation that up tothis point, this system is very similar to Opal.
Did I hear cosmic scale. Sorry....my head is still spinning from earlier posts by sainthurrifan. Grammar so poor. Remarkably similar to lefty(y). You'd almost think one person had 2 ID's.
just a observation from the goes storm floater infrared: there has been in the last 2-4 frames very strong but small and obviously just starting, just to the east and NE of the Lows center.... what do you guys see....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Really sad Cosmic, GET A LIFE!
i meant to say convection some where in there but being 4 beers deep im sorry....
clyde, u don;t need any surfacer spin or anything for a ull to become warmcore. if a ull generates lots of convection that persist than surface pressures may start to drop and at that point the ull will begin to become warm core. is even noted as an area to watch on accu weather and was mentioned by twc earlier today. also those global models that form a cyclone that affects the se us does it from the ull.
but in all seriousness there is a small and cold burst of convection near the center of the low near the caymans.... go to my previous look and see what you think... this is the first convection i have seen so close to the circ. center....
Clyde
hey torn its starting to get better orginised and deep convection right over the low center. just where and like opal. will be interesting to see what happens
lefty than you email Dr Jeff Masters like i did and he said this..... so i hope this will settle my point earlier... my first post and i get blasted!!!! wooot

"that 60W 20N spinner is an upper-level cold low, and is a
tropical storm killer! Nothing tropical can form near this thing. The
Bahamas development may happen as an offshoot of the disturbance in the
western Caribbean we've been tracking all week, but who knows" Dr Jeff.....
what one do you think that will be TD 20 frist?
is that the first convection so close to the center.... most of the convection has been everywhere but....

clyde
I agree Lefty. It is almost startling! BTW, wasn't it just last night around this time that a certain "cosmicevent" didn't like chit-chat? Wonder what that post was about, superiority? lol Good grammer and typing skills does not make you intelligent, knowledge does!!! You guys keep on sharing with us novices.
clyde, here is a lil bit of what the nhc says on cyclone formation from ull and the link. its a pdf file so u will need acrobat reader to view it.

The Birth of a Tropical Cyclone
Tropical cyclones form over warm waters from pre-existing disturbances. These disturbances typically
emerge every three or four days from the coast of Africa as "tropical waves" that consist of areas of unsettled
weather. Tropical cyclones can also form from the trailing ends of cold fronts and occasionally from
upper-level lows.


Link
only when the ULL is NOT AS COLD AS THIS ONE IS!!! so the odds of this happening even tho possible its very rare....
also here as alil bit on hurricane bill from 1997

Bill- The first hurricane to form for the season, Bill developed from an upper-level low pressure system that became detached from the main trough northeast of Puerto Rico
clyde, wheredo u see that this ull is any colder than any other?
please explain the how u determine the ull is so cold. all ull are cold core.
it has nothing to do with the cold of the ull. it has to do with convergence. the ull has generated alot of convection. if that convection persists like it has the surface pressures will drop and the ull will disiispate as the surface low takes over. the problem is most ull don;t generate much convection in the tropics. this one is. its also beign helped by a passing wave. pretty much the saem situation we saw with harvey. he formed from an ull and a tropicla wave.
it also helps if the ull is cutoff, or stationary as this ull is. it has sta in the same spot for 3 days now, so its convection has a chance to generate a broad surface low.
any one think that we will get to W this year? let me no
well then lefty i guess your smarter than DR. Jeff Than... take it up with him... wow my first day and we know who is annoying!
clyde 2 things

u made a statment i know to be wrong so i corrected you.

alsomaybe u didn;t ask him the right question. and i neevr said i was smarter than dr.jeff. just that i know of many hurricanes spawned from ull including the only cane we have on record in the south atlantic. don;t get mad at me for pointing something out. u should enjoy the fact u learned something new about something u obviusly care about like all of us
geee dummy here is the question posed to Dr. Jeff...
Dr Jeff,

have noticed a decent spin located at about 60W 20N, just wondering your thoughts on this low pressure moving NNW or NW, and is this the Cyclone some of the models i look at are forecasting to form monday or tuesday near the bahamas??? Thank you in advance.


response:
Hi Michael, that 60W 20N spinner is an upper-level cold low, and is a
tropical storm killer! Nothing tropical can form near this thing. The
Bahamas development may happen as an offshoot of the disturbance in the
western Caribbean we've been tracking all week
This shows a frontal boundary stalling out right over me. Just had a little shower with quite a bit of rain--cool radar link. I am at the northern edge of the circle in the center.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&scale=0.5&delay=15&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&ID=JAX&lat=31.18650055&lon=-81.37229919&label=Saint+Simons+Island%2C+GA&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=335¢ery=394&prevzoom=zoom
bottom line lefty.... Dr. Jeff>YOU...i thought i was right and asked probably the most credible source.... and he agrees... ill side with him.... duh
There's a lot of chance for tracks anywhere west or east of Rita and Katrina. Forget the models as far as that goes because nobody told them where Rita and Katrina went. Know one told them that.
lol clyde forts i never called u names. second u did not ask him if ull can form tropical systems. u asked him about the ull and he explained it was an ull and nothing can form near it. i am sure if u asked him if a ull can become warmcore and work down to the surface he would have explained how this would happen. i don;t know hwy ur mad at me. i even cited the nhc, the experts, who say ull can form tropical systems. i also cited 3 storms off hand that have formed from ull. u need to chill and understand that if u make a statement it must be able to hold water and maybe u learned somthign new
Actually Dr. Masters and Lefty are both right. Any tropical system that encountered that ULL now would be severely weakened or destroyed. However, if it keeps strong convection in it for at least 3 days, it could, just maybe, turn warm core and develop itself. But it would be at least Tuesday before it could transition I think.
all right you too cool it
CLYDEyou mentioned that your knew well heres a litle tip im a lurker in jeffs blog leftyy thiks hes the king of the blog and he gets pissed when people dont do or say it this way my advice from expierenceing it myself is just ignore or lurk if you need answers real ansers go to steves blog or the decussion blog jeffs blog is just like a chat room with leftyy is in charge even though hes not supposed to be lol if you need a safe andd fun place to talk and stuff come to alecs blog those guys are great funny welcome to the blogging world

jeff
you keep saying that this is the system the models keep predicting will form near the bahamas... Dr. Jeff says otherwise.... you twisted my story around someone asked if this was possibly formation of something tropical.... and i said no it was an ULL... you need to go to med school like me... it takes up time so you dont have to deal with weirds like you confronting someone for answering an inquiring mind's question.... peace out guys nice posting here but i guess the pothead has to be CHIEF METEOROLOGIST! cya
st it has had convection persisting for a couple days now already and real deep convection is blowing up on its se flank, the exact spot u would expect a ull to spawn a surface low, so it wouldnot be tuesday it could be any time now. i personally don;t think it will spawn anything but thats not the point. the point is all ull are called ull(cold low) and the fact it is cutoff would allow the convection to persist for some time. if clyde wants to make a statement he needs to understand itmight not be 100 percent correct and he didn;t ask dr.jeff the right question
hey clyde mail for you
bye clyde. thanks for stopping by.

also i am not a pothead. just thought u like to get the facts straight. also i never stated my opinion i stated other experts opinions. ur in med school, if u didn;t like what the doc said don't u get a second opinion? next who said dr.jeff knew everything. imagine how many e-mails he answers a day and gave u the generic vanilla answer. u have issues and will not be missed in here. peace
play nic all
clyde this is what u said

Posted By: ClydeFrog at 9:43 PM GMT on September 30, 2005.
the spin everyone sees near 60W 20N is a upper level cold low and nothing will be able to form near it!! Saw a lot of post about that.... just thought i would let you all know.... my first post btw nice to meet everyone!!!

Clyde


and this is what i said in response to it
and u got mad at me for saying it could happen lol.

Posted By: leftyy420 at 10:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2005.
an upper levellow can form a cyclone. it has happened once this year already. if u don;t belive me look it up
than i gave u links and info on this happening befor and u asume i am stating my opinion. everything i gave you came from the nhc, the experts. so maybe they know more than dr.jeff
lol clyde. just so you know those are all trolls who don;t like anyone here. most like bold man are 14 years old. also alot of these bloggers have invited me to chase storms and stay at there home and i have actually chased with one of the bloggers here. so fo every one you find who doesn't like me theres 100 more who find me knowledgable and very informative. so i could care less about ur insults. thats so low as u don;t know me and ur insulting me lol. i have not said one word about you. i thought we were having a disscussion on possible development and u flip out. sounds like u have a problem
jeff exactly how am i hobo? i don;t live with my mommy like u do lol
ok all do not turn this in to lol her what all be cool and what all play nic her ok all
jeff, i never once said i was the head honcho, or i knew everything. i provided clyde with links to info from the nhc.

oh jeff i am in school to get my degree and while i am in no hury as soon as i get it i will smack u in the head with it.
CHILDREN CHILDREN CHILDREN,
LET'S REMEMBER THAT THIS BOARD IS TO EXPRESS OPINIONS AND WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW. WE ALL NEED TO TAKE A CHILL PILL AND STOP ATTACKING EACH OTHER AFTER EVERY POST. IF SOMEONE POSTS SOMETHING THAT YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH, POLITELY TELL THEM WHY YOU DISAGREE. AND IF YOU ARE BEING DISAGREED WITH, DO NOT TAKE UMBRIGDE AGAINST IT. WHO KNOWS, YOU MIGHT LEARN SOMETHING YOU DIDN'T KNOW. ISN'T THAT WHY MOST OF US ARE HERE ANYWAYS, TO LEARN? YOU ALL NEED TO SETTLE DOWN RIGHT NOW OR THIS BOARD IS GOING TO TURN INTO A CRAPSHOOT.
i no JEFF is not back on her is he??
like you do with everyone else that tries to get info and proved you wrong you get pissed at them leftyy you are the one whos got issues not us u
thank you torn. i dunno why clyde tunred so crazy and and we all know about boldman
dang leftyy were is wannabe when you need him lol
88889 thats who boldman is. jeff
131. IKE
This blog has already turned into a crap shoot. Just pitiful. Thank God hurricane season is about over....it's October 1st in 2 hours. Bring on winter!
: tornadoty thank you
I lurk this blog alot and will continue to do so. Although sometimes leftyy can be a bit arogant and defensive, I find him to be the most informed non expert on here. He gives factual information backed by links to experts more than anyone else. He keeps his opinions to a minimum and generally deals with facts. I might add that I read Clyde's original comment and he did not give Dr. Jeff the credit for the info, but made it seem as if he knew something that he did not and did not quote his source Dr. Jeff. Just my opinion but at least leftyy seems to back his all to many arguements with sources and facts.
well since it was my first post providing a fact htat with a tropical wave with a low level circ this would be nearly impossible.... im out now... tx for all the emails guys! lol

clyde
yes leftyy read tornados post that includes tyou to dont ge t that tail betweeen you legs and say you did not do anthing
Boldman, your childish posts are not helping the situation.
if you read my posts i emailed dr jeff after lefty said i was wrong.... so you may want to sshhhh!!!!
if you would just not lash out at everyomne that makes a opion on here we would not be fight ing and im a good boy and ill stop now and leave it at that
clyde i am not getting a degree online. i go to mary washington university in fredericksburg,va. i currently take 8 credit hours and maybe next semster i will start going full time. i am in no hurry as my wife has a very good job and i enjoy taking care of my 2 kids durring the day. also if i get my degree i would not be in any hurry to get a job as i personally only want to work for the nws here in sterling va but most likely would have to relocate and the reaosn i live where i live is so both mine and my wifes family are close. only openongs for the nws are in oklahoma, texas, and california. just so u know more about me
sebastian if you think he is informed... just please finish your middle school education!!! tx. and goodnight and goodbye
lol.... if you care.... dont get me started....
leftyy420 boy it look like we can not get jeff out of her dos it has some one try to get him banned for life or what how long has he been back?
hey clyde go to the chat room would like to talk
888 g this is not your battle k your like this girrl in my class has to stick her nose in everything were it dont belong
alright guys almost blackout time. just when the blob starts to get going again
theboldman or jeff or what evere you are lol
Clyde, do you live in a hurricane zone?
You're right Lefty, Blobbly Jr. is having a rebirth. NHC says that the enviornment could become more favorable for development.
yeah torn. i was looking at the gfs and it take it towards texas, but in 7 days it forms a cyclone in the gulf and it travels accros south florida. will see if it is still there in the 8pm run
Lefty,

What do ypu think about the similarities between Opal and possible TD20?
So your saying two Gulf storms in one week? Sounds to me like a western Gulf, then Eastern, which, unfortunately, could end up giving the water enough time to warm to a level to produce another cat. 4/5 hurricane in the Eastern Gulf. :(
flp its scary. i read the anylasis of opal and it was like a play by play of blobby jr.
This clyde character reminds me very much of wannabe. A whole lot of nothing to say, and saying it very loudly at that.
i doubt all that torn lol, but the gfs shows a storm forming and hitting florida, maybe its the remenst of blobby as the gfs never forms a cyclone out of it but takes its energy into texas. lots of possibilite and maybe another cape verde storm in 7 days as well. the gfs is spinning up systems all over the tropics lol
I was here for Opal and it appears that the disturbance is trying to hang out long enough to form in the same area as Opal. The water temperatures were almost as warm in 95 as they were this year.
You guys make me laugh so loud. This blog is like crank it just keeps sucking you back in. Jeff whatever happened to your friend Evankisseloff? By the way was that paragraph you wrote back there English? That is what they are teaching in our public schools these days?
Clyde,

You must have missed the human relations class.
I was using the FSU website model suite, and the GFS showed an impressive system off the coast of Africa 144 hours out. I think that since it would be farther south than T.D. 19, it might be missed by the fronts and move west either into the Caribbean, then the Gulf, or north through the Bahamas and towards the Outer Banks/New England. What do you think Lefty?
Clyde, your at UF and your not out on a Friday night? You must be married.
tornm the long range gfs shows almost all systems that form near the cape verdes folowing the same track thru a weakness in the ridge. i think it will be hard for any system to make it all the way accross the atlantic with the steering set up the way it is
lol clyde. u have a degree in meterology and u didn;t know a ull can form a cyclone. now thats funny
well i see peacce isnt working and that troll word has been used again. lefty i thought you were not going to argue with that child any more you are wasting your time i just urious if his parents know how he talks on here ,i have a boy his age he would be eating standing up if i caught him talking to anyone like that, and to clyde brother thier is no need to argue lefty reminds me of myself at his age he is just stating and opinion and he want change that niether would i lefty what are you comparing to opal please drop the troll and just let bad wind blow.
hey torn. this is from the 11pm discussion on td 19. something interesting i think

AFTER 96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY FORM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD
STEER IT MORE WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS
YET...BUT WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY.
I agree, in Oct the Atlantic starts to get a lot more fronts and troughs--I cannot recall the last time an October storm formed near the Cape Verdes (itself an unusual event) and made it all the way across to the Caribbean--not going to say it's impossibile, especially in a season like this--but highly unlikely.
one thing i will say for lefty he is at home with his family and not in a bar or running the roads so he is to be commended for that.
Tornadoty, that's exactly what I was thinking. The models were saying that TD19 would turn north, and that a more formidable system would soon follow further to his south. So far so good.

I think TD19 is already looking pretty nice, but I just cant wait to see what follows him off the coast! GFDL says he should be Stan by tomorrow, but maybe thats too fast. Doesn't seem too unrealistic.


Clyde, okay buddy I'll pump your gas. Would you also like some hot air with that, or ya already topped off?
they are hinting at td 19 could start to move more west. that could be justa short time and it should recurve out to sea but just a though.
ok all i am out of her see you all all i am this seeing is no one is take about the new TD 19 or may be or new TD 20 so good night all
Crap. That's what Bastardi (he he Bastardi) has been saying, that a ridge could form and steer storms across the Atlantic.
Well--this is the 2005 season lefty ;-)
Wait... New England? New England [unofficially] = Long Island. Long Island. Long Island = where I live.

Does that mean I could experience my first hurricane ever?
st simon my friend glad you here trying to get peace here lol curious all these coast guys and nobody fishes what about you,
willjax i think td 19 will be a lillte slow to intensify. the disscussion noted that it appers the circulation center is actually exposed but i would expect that to reform under the deep convection in 12-24 hrs and than he should take off.
WillJax, I think it might already be Stan, but the NHC wants to give it 12 hours as a T.D.
Everyone needs to chill and go check out Jessica Alba in, Into the Blue, now thats some tropical development in the Bahamas I can give 2 thumbs. The plot kinda sucks till she breaks out the blue Bikini then it doesn't matter what the hell they are trying to do becuase it's all good, lol
I crab and catch shrimp with the cast net, not that big on fishing, relaxing in a john boat in the marsh with some beer and a buddy is always fun though :)
still waiting on reply about the opal thought lefty that was a very strange storm.
yeah st i was thinking the same thing. anything is possible in 2005.
St.Simons, when was the last time a legit Cape Verde formed in July and made it to the Gulf (Emily)? When was the last time 2 cat. 5s formed in the Gulf in the same year? I'm not attacking you (there is plenty of attacking already going on tonight), I am just saying, you can't rely on climotology or what is considered "normal" this year.
we are about to get blasted by a strange training squall line oriented E-W and travelling due west. Very strange. Check out radar http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&scale=0.5&delay=15&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&ID=JAX&lat=31.18650055&lon=-81.37229919&label=Saint+Simons+Island%2C+GA&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=335¢ery=394&prevzoom=zoom
Very true torn! Nevertheless, I still think it unlikely that anything named east of 50 W will be anything but a fish storm for the rest of the season :)
We can only hope. We can ONLY hope.
st love to offshore fish katrina ended that though no bait no more harbors and fish are not safe to eat if i lived on nc/va coast i would love to surf fish niece in wilmington fished thier caught the biggest blue fish ive ever seen crabs here got washed away lol.
Unless it hit the Azores--only one hurricane has hit the Azores before with full hurricane conditions.
whats the latest on the system W of cuba - i snoozed for a while
GFDL bring soon-to-be Stan to cat. 3 intensity in 5 days, and turns it north.
Actually, I think that with the very high heat content in the Caribbean, that it is very likely that regardless of what happens to the blob, at least 2 more hurricanes are likely to form there. And that Florida will get a landfall from one of them.
http://www.lajes.af.mil/WEATHER/AzoresHurricanes.htm
We're unsure, Houstonian. Best to watch it carefully.
wow St.--- goin out on al imb there dont ya think?
Winds have gone up to 23 knots & 27 knots gusting at buoy 42056 in the Yucatan Channel. Wonder if our blob is starting to get its act together?
TD19 look like he could make it west if he misses the first weakness in the ST ridge, but there could also be another weakness at the western end of the ridge.

I remember Dr. Masters said that at this time of year the jet stream does well to bring a lot of low pressure systems to the south, hence recurving storms out to sea. Thing is that it seems to be sending a lot of high pressure in its stead.
well since lefty forgot about the opal post i will tell you that thing was a weak ts as it skirted yuc then became hurri in
bay of camp made cat 2 then rapidly moved ne strenghted into a 150mphstorm thatthankfully weakened to 115 when it hit fort walton beach on oct 4 1995. we were 120 miles to the east and had 60mph winds a very large storm.
And the pourdown begins---looks like Mike and I should build an ark!
i know were "unsure" tornadoty -- but WHATS it doooooing??? LOL
It's strengthening again, Houstonian. The upper-level winds are becoming more favorable for development, and I think we will have TD 20 at either 10 AM CDT or 4 PM CDT tomorrow.
Jupiter, great link!
Hey guys, see ya around here later tonight. Be sure to keep up the weather gossip b/c this is a busy time! I want to stay on top of it but gotta go, so I'll use you guys for my info.

st simons remember david it hit georgia in 79 remember what was following it and where it hit little trivia there?
Frederic, MS/AL stateline?
For those wondering how the bathymetry of the Gulf of Mexico correlates with oceanic heat content, here are a couple of interesting links.

This USGS link shows 200m, 1000m, 2000m and 3000m contours:

Link

Here is another USGS image that shows a larger area in 3D, without vertical scale:

Link

So the answer to the question above, as to whether the relative lack of oceanic heat content around the "Big Bend" area of Florida is due to the relatively shallow waters, is mostly "Yes". Strong prevailing easterly winds at the surface can also cause upwelling near the west coast of Florida, both Katrina and Rita caused such conditions, so this also could be part of answer, although cold upwelling should show up in the SSTs as well.

It is also these shallow shelf waters around the Gulf that make many Gulf areas prone to higher storm surge, much more so than the Florida Atlantic coastline.
saint i was ignoring you and no it crossed the yucatan and was only a td at the time

shows that a tropical depression formed about 70 n mi south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico at 1800 UTC 27 September. Best track position, central pressure and maximum one-minute sustained wind speed are listed for every six hours in Table 1.



Steering currents were weak and the tropical depression moved slowly over the Yucatan peninsula for the following three days. Convective banding increased and ship reports suggest that the depression became Tropical Storm Opal at 1200 UTC 30 September while centered near the north-central coast of the Yucatan peninsula. The storm gradually strengthened and moved slowly westward into the Bay of Campeche


Link to posdt storm anylasis of opal from the nhc
Carrie actually did not cause hurricane conditions in the Azores themselves, however she did sink a ship called the 'Panic' (yikes) with 80 out of 86 people on board lost. Carrie is also the hurricane that made it closest to the British isles, being considered a hurricane untill she was 300 miles SW of Cornwall.
thanks tornadoty -- ive been saying CAT 1 SE Gulf late monday early tuesday -- am sticking to my guns
Yes flp. Took me a bit of thinking. Remember, that was as bad as Ivan.
Houstonian, I'd REALLY watch it if I were you.
ahhem -- excuse me -- i meant SW gulf
so it would be a very similar tracvk tghe blob would take just like opal, and like opal iut was relatively weak at the time and it took 3 days to ctross the penninsula and once into the bay it blew up as the bay is always very hot and deep.
It being Blobby Jr.
Instead of moving NNE, Lefty, I think it would be more likley to move NNW, and into the warmer waters of the Western Gulf. :(
this is the map of storm tracks from the 1995 season and u can see where opal formed and tracked. very similar to blobby jr

after katrina son nobody was in thier right mind and why is so imprtant to prove somebody wrong yes it was a td when it crossed yuc but became a storm on sat and then scraped n/yuc. i got upset with you after katrina hit you seemed to still want more storms to hit i guess i took it wrong but i have apologized to you several times its up to you to hold a grudge i dont
I actually think that is the only thing funny that kid has ever said.
It's not funny, it's unbelievably insensitive. Now, my joke saying that I'm being thrown into a tropical depression this year, now that was funny.
well lefty and the rest good night im to old to stay up this late lefty i pull those storms past out of my head i dont need links you got me on the models but i will get on history you cant use links thats cheating lol goodnight son and god bless.
saint i don;t hold a grudge. i just ignore you now.
Yikes, for the first time, Blobby Jr. is really starting to look like a tropical cyclone.
I guess some of us aren't as "politically correct" as others. Everyone is so sensitive these days.
well lefty i see i cant reach you but thats ok ill say a prayerfor both us we cant ignore him again goodnight and godbless. and p.s i wish you would ignore those ones that curse and hassle you.
jupiter amen you hit the nail on the head i tried thats all i can do .
Once again guys, thanks for the info and the laughs.
Now if you don't mind I am going to make like a fetus and head out.
Good night SAINT, good night Jupiter.
night y'all
Good night St. Simons.

Time for me to hit the sack. Up 2 hours later than usual. See ya later.
the gfs now forms a system out of the blob. atleast a depression and brings it into tecas. it also forms another system in the bay of campeche and slams it into floroida like opal. very interesting also it takes td 19 all the way across the atlantic and the bay of campeche storm that the gfs has hitting florida will casue a weakness to recurv td 19 out to sea. so if the bay of campeche storm does not form td 19 might cross the atlantic and threaten the us. just another thought. waiting for the ukmet, nogaps and canadian to see what they do
ok sorry, was a little off. the bay of campeche storm looks to cross florida and than remerge in the atlantic and than recuve and hit the carolinas. the trough that pulled it north is going to grab td 19 anmd recurve him. still very interesting scenario.
Lefty, What do you think of the latest caribbean satellite view? I think it looks more conducive for a storm now that the showers are to the west. Also, the tracks of Rita and Katrina were north of the current development. Plus there will be some interaction soon with the remnants of Rita in the gulf.
oh my lefty....keep me informed about the blob
the canadian and ukmet form something in the gulf as well. looking very interesting
where do you get most of your info from lefty?
The weaknesses the storms will exploit are near Galveston, Fla. panhandle, Pascagoula area and Ga./Carolina border, and coastal Delaware and areas near Delaware! It looks as though a storm will go over the Fla panhandle and hit Ga. S.C. to make up for lost time from Ophelia. Meanwhile, some system will move west of the Rita track!
thwe blob looks real good right now. microwave pases show a deeping low pressure and possible banding around the center. heres a couple of iomages for u guys

latest ir imgage as of 1:00am



here is the latest microwave pass of the blob. pass was at 11:04pm




buff i use a variety of sites. the navy site, the nhc site, universoty of wisconsisn site, i get my models from the fsu ftp site as well as the university of wisconsin text site and the latest gfs from the noaa site
the 205am disscussion will probly say the system has gotten better orginised and could be a depression in the next day or 2 as it drifts wnw. expect them to send a recon tomm specially since there is improved banding around the center, she will likley be a depression tomm if this trend continues
well i can say this year has been one for the record books....just keep your fingers crossed that none come my way
where u at buff
Yes, the blob actually looks organized now and the balance of not too much rain and better banding plus some kind of energy from the Yucatan or gulf area to the south of Rita's previous track seems to be reinvigorating the system. Also, energy seems to be moving around the high in a steady way.
Im on I95 1 hour north of Savannah Ga in SC
cool. i am on i95 hr south of washington dc
lol boldman ur an idiot. no one is arguing in here. lol
well maby ill go ask saint and he will tell me whats going on in here then
My sister lived there in Fredericksburg for a while
go ahead boldman
Look on the satellite loop at the little moisture areas cruising along Rita's southern path in the gulf tonight. They seem to be disrupting the dry air zone!
reallty buff awsome. not many people heard of it lol nice little town but its rapidly blowing up. i think they call it urban sprawl lol
yeah bold. we all some dummies man. we inbred lol
The remnants of Rita seem to be hanging on and getting spun back to the northeast. A few small cloud formations around dry Pascagoula are occuring. Also, the clouds over the gulf are cruising southwest around the high pressure. Yes, Rita is like a cloaking device. So is Katrina. The high pressure seems to be best in La. Three cloud formations are moving southwest off the Fla coast.
TWC quote of the day "Longwang is impressive but it isn't very wide."
lol canenut thats funny
Only area of weakness on satellite tonight in La. is around the exact middle of Rita and Katrina paths on the border of the gulf. Maybe one or two other areas in north La. I'm looking at the gulf satellite!
the remenats of riat of u will, look as bout as rough as it can look. the system is dissapating and will be gone in 12 hrs.
cirro, it doesn;t work like that. u can;t just look at the satelite imagery and determine the weaknesses. specially when ur talking bout an orginised system vs mositure moving along a stationary front.
269. Manny
Well I'll be damned if Bloby Jr. isn't look damn good tonight. Wonder if it has enough time to get its shit fully together before a landfall. If the GFS is right, probably not, but the other models kept it hanging around the Yucatan for awhile.
There seems to be stability over La. Meanwhile the remnants are dying but the energy seems to be changing to other dominant systems from the old ones. Also, there is and has been quite a bit of stability over Pascagoula for a month now. No rain since eastern sections of Katrina went past. Notice that the areas of rain are south of the paths of Rita and Katrina. Galveston will later be in this path. They are down 12.21 on the year. Also, odds are increasing that the rain will occur in the areas that are missing out. In fact, the dying out of Rita seems to be instigating more energy for the NW Caribbean! If Rita were stronger, like last night, things would be different. Upper level patterns dominate the weather but the models don't have a historical intelligence to account for the exact qualities of previous storms.
thers no rule saying casue an area is short on rain it will see the next system or rain. its called a drought man. now u can assume that things want to balance out but not in the way ur saying., other parts of the year will be wteerr in places like galveston if at all. there are plenty of places that are short on rain. in fact dc set the record for their driest sep on record. only .16 of rain.
things will even out but chances are it wont be from a tropical system saying hey, it hasnt rained here so let me go there, it will be from the winter pattern when the storm path across the US is much farther south than it is during the summer allowing for more dynamics and more moisture to be drawn into full latitude systems, droughts are usually busted over the winter
Yes, but there is no rule that says areas behind in rain will not be likely to have it soon or likely, at least, to have it sooner rather than later since balance is in fact balance. Look at the magnetosphere! Also, there is no Cartesian machine controlling the weather yet. That is why droughts occur. However notice that droughts appear to be broken in an orderly way. The butterfly effect, and chaos theory seems to rely on the models for short term effects only. Yet, ironically a Cartesian system with some order and non random analysis of previous patterns seems to accent the short term predictions available through models.
Yes, and it does appear that the tropical systems are about over with for the year in the United States. The storm track is moving south and in a couple of weeks the precipitation will primarily balance out from this pattern!
i am a firm believe in the theory drought breeds drought, i witnessed it first hand here in NC a few years ago where systems would drop rain over parts of the southeast but dry up once they got over the state, yes weather tends to even itself out whether its over a week or a year or a decade, and yes it runs in cycles but you can never accurately predict when that cycle will end, if it were possible weather forecasting would be perfect
right dash. u have to look longterm not short term with these type of patterns cirro. usually a wet summer might lead to a dry winter. thats why tyhey put out forcasts for winters and moisture potential. but ur looking at a small tuime frame and trying to say this will happen due to them being down on rain. thats not how it happens. like i said i agree with the balancing out but thats a whole different field than short term forcasting. we are talking in time frames of 7-10 days and ur talking in time frame of 3-6 months. thats the difference. patters like drought usually don;t end for some time. and when they do get mositure it might be what they get on avg and still keep them below normal. like i said, u can;t take that and forcast 7-10 days, u can take that to forcast 3-6 months. and than its only an educated hypothesis on where the wetter and dryier areas will set up.
Or does rain breed drought? How come the areas like Pascagoula haven't had rain in a month? Yet the rain was just before the dry weather started.
cirro no one but god knows if the tropical system is over for the us. we have been hit all the way to dec in the us. the season is 2 months away from its end and technically still in the peak. so right now that statement would be fool hardy. not saying we wil get hit again this year, just saying that ur statement is fool hardy as the season is far from over. now a better statement would be we are likley done with major canes as we have not been hit with any major canes after oct 1 but still happen
they havent seen rain in a month because of the same reasons the whole east coast nearly hasnt seen rain in a month, there has been a massive high sitting off the east coast deflecting anything that brings moisture in, i could sit here and say that having 8 inches of rain in july is the reason we have had 1.5 total for aug and sept but id be kidding myself, its a result of a stagnant summertime pattern
I've thought about these droughts and they seem to solidify the theory about where rain goes even more. It is on the boundaries of the drought where the droughts are broken slowly. Look at how tough it has been on Galveston. The models couldn't get that storm to obey. The drought was tough. But Rita came close this time to resolving the 12.21 deficit on the change of the storm track moving south.
Ophelia didnt give me any rain and im on the edge of a near drought
cirro they haven't had rain in a month because they haven'ty had rain in a month. this is the dry season for most the us. usually mid to late oct we start to get more and stronger trofs to cross the us and bring more rain and strat the rainy part of the year. what u need to do is go back 5-10 years and determine rain rates for each month for those 5-10 yerars to determone the exacty pattern of their rainfall. next u need to study the rainfall of the past 2 years and break it down into its cycle of dry and wett. than u can predict around where the dry spell will end. like i said u got a good point, u just looking at to short of a time period. u need to look bigger to see the full cycle. but its not forcasting, its climatology ur doing.
Wow, I definitely disagree with the season being over. It's getting later and later, but things are looking pretty active, VERY active. All it takes is a chance alignment of some factors and we've got a system bearing down on US.
na dafter u look back 10 years u will see there is a pattern but its not fluid. some palces in the us have been below in rainfall for years. in ur theory there so over due. it does not work like that. u said it best butterfly effect. caos. thats why we can barley forcast 72 hrs. caos. ur trying to find a pattern in coas. its impossible.
id bet you money that galveston will have a surplus of rain after the this upcoming winter and never get hit once by a tropical system. 2 reasons #1. Average rainfall is going to be the high extremems and low extremes put together soooo if whatever city you want to talk about is below now than chances are this is an extreme and at some point they will extreme in the other direction. #2 weather is like a tide, it will slosh in one direction only to completly turn itself around in the other direction, thats why most of the time Dry hot summer=cold wet winters and vice versa, the atmosphere is driven to even itself out, Hurricanes are your best example of that
I still give the season a couple weeks for sure! The gulf is warm and the fronts aren't blowing through yet. I'm just going to favor the fronts for more precipitation for the gulf states in November. If God knows, then He is outside of the action so to speak, in order to view the end result! I'm not predicting exact amounts or exact amounts followed by exact amounts like that! I'm observing previous rainfall based on observed amounts and then noticing where the rainfall occurs. But based on what I have observed, I favor Galveston for rain from some system whether frontal or tropical. Now, did you know Galveston was behind in rain by 12.21?
Weather is like poker. You can get a pair often, you can get a fluch sometimes, or you can also go without getting a decent hand for a really long time while the guy next to you rakes it in.

good one will, too bad i havent been handed a good hand during the winter in a few years
has anyone ever noticed the warm bias the weather channel has? it seem they are consistantly 2-6 degrees to warm on a daily basis and they often blow their 10 day forecast by 15 degrees
Is meteorology related to astronomy? Aristotle thought that comets belonged to meteorology. Climatology is what helps one predict weather in the absence of which butterfly effect will occur. However are weather and cloud patterns are an emergent property as the astronomer Timothy Ferris suggests?
Yes, the slosh effect is correct. However, the slosh is calculated Leibniz.
yes cirro cause many places in the south are in a drought or near drought. we are behind where i live by 7-8 inches. its been a very dry summer and only reason we were above last year was due to the storms that hit florida and moved north into va. also our winter was very dry, on 2 good snows.
Yes, IMHO meteorology is absolutely linked to astronomy. Beginnig with the fact htat our seasons are determined by the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit around the sun.

It's impossible to tell how our orbit has varied over the nearly absurd amount of time that we've been orbiting the Sun.
they are related in the fact that the same astrological events occur each year when essentially the same meteorological events occur which is why you have things like the harvest moon but in no such way can you factually use one to PREDICT another
lefty where are you again?
va
you had a dry winter? really?
Don't forget that our calendar is not perfectly aligned to the lenght of time it takes to orbit the sun. Each orbit we will lose some accuracy relative to some reference scheme setup made, say, 2005 years ago. In time the date during which seasons occur will change!
dont we have leap year to fix that?
Leap year is an extra 24hrs, still not perfectly accurate.
here is the drought report mapas of sept 27th. u can see there are places worse off then galveston

Link
oh yeah we had a dry winter
Is life an emergent property or are cloud patterns? If you study the system as a whole, climatological patterns emerge which make one question whether all the seemingly random, chaotic weather events are not a part of a whole itself that has in fact emerged in an orderly manner and not just as a cosmic after thought.
we only had .08 in of rain in richmond down 3.90in for the month and we are 7.0 in behind for the year.


Man, girl is sleeping and is going to kick my a$$ if I do not get back to bed as the computer is in the same room. Where is the new Carib W Atlantic IR image?
That's the thing...out of Chaos came order. But the thing is, on what level are we perceiving order, the macro level may be chaotic. Or what seems to be chaos on the macro level may be part of a bigger order.

It's pretty hard for us to imagine these things. For starters, no one on the planet even knows where "here" is.
Nice philisophical discussion though. Would participate if my typing was not so loud.lol.
I've seen the drought map but I also like the doppler map. Models, climatology, meteorology, astronomy,and theories of the universe combine. Nietzsche said: We knowers are unknown to ourselves and for a good reason: how can we ever hope to find what we have never looked for?
winter wasn'tto dry i guess. for dec thru march we were down 2 inches but marhc thru april was above average in precip but the summer was dry
weather is a collection of random events and extremes, it always will be. man has decided to quantify these events with averages, which is why when something is supposedly out of the ordinary its such a big thing but in the larger scheme of things its another ordinary extreme
lol no halo sj
yea the winter here in NC was just a tiny bit above, its been downhill after that
Shhhhh. Naw, as that is in the same room. Where is that image?
Check out the MRF 9 panel. At weather.unisys. It claims to have studied recent climatology. Just kidding! Anyways that's what it looks like. I actually like it because it gives Galveston, Savannah, Richmond and other areas rain soon. I know Ophelia didn't sweep all the area but watch the doppler map fill in around eastern N.C!
yeah dash, we had alot of system,s that either moved to our south or to our north. we only got one direct hit lol. think we got 8-10inches with that one. i expect this winter to be very cold and wett. maybe a couple nor'easters lol. man i love a good nor'easter
here are some statistics of the length of a day and length of a year:

It takes 365.256 days for the Earth to travel around the Sun and 23.9345 hours for the Earth rotate a complete revolution
lol some one is whipped lol

dunno she be soon
Yes. It is extremes. And it is moderates. In temperate climates there are tornadoes. In tropical ones hurricanes. Averages too. Remember to enjoy the good days in between the extremes. Heck enjoy the extremes. Amarillo gets extremes all the time. But damn near average is extremely rare except that there are an average no. of actually average days!
i agree lefty i think this winter is going to be a good one for the east coast, ive been drinking some of joe bastardis cool aid again LOL and he has started to drop hints that this winter will be comperable to the 95-96 winter where alot of record cold and snowy winters were set(i think thats right)
sj its out
will wouldnt that mean the shorter time for the earth to spin once plus leap year would equal the extra time it takes to circle the sun?
Yep, hang around long enough and you'll see some pretty crazy stuff.

We shouldn't cut ourselves short, though. Gravity effects everything in the Universe to the extent that a gravitational event here will ever so slightly effect stars far beyond out sight. In other words, yes we matter...ever ever ever so slightly ;)
I shouldn't have given too much credence to the MRF on Galveston precipitation. Or maybe I should have gave it more. We'll see.
cirro the mrf is a heartbreaker, last winter it liked to blow up large east coast storms only to have them vanish a few runs later
Not whipped, she just has too work in the morning and all my good stuff is in the sleeping room.lol.

It is out. What is that large area of convection to the SE of the ULL? And I see we still have that small blob off the NC coast.

Will read comments then it is goodnight to all.
thats a low pressure system that has been sheared by the ull for days now. yeah will need to watch the nc blob som as well. well sj i am off as well. if ur home tomm we can do lilhalo after 3pm. gotta watch that vt game peace yall
Goodnight! Goodnight MRF, GFS, and other models. Give us some better runs because otherwise I'm using climatology in combination with you and not you alone!
go WVU :) later
My cousin is getting married tomorrow so after all the free food and liquer I would suck worse than normal.lol.

Night all.
Well the year is not an exact thing. Technically it varies every year. 365.25 days is realyl a running decimal, and even then its just an average year.
Good night guys, see ya tomm.
just wondering what Clydes' thoughts are now?? prob. something along the lines of -- "wonder what the best way to pry my foot out of my mouth is??"

The wave has blown up -- Cat 1 sw gulf late monday early tuesday -- ill give ya 4 to 1 odds
The amount of dry air over the gulf seems to be dissipating quickly as the depression near Yucatan is organizing quickly. This should pave the way for it to strengthen if it passes the peninsula and continues north/northwestward, and I think this makes it far more likely than before that it can make it to greater more than a CAT1 if it continues to organize and enters the gulf at TD or higher strength.
334. IKE
Per the 8:05 am EDST Atlantic discussion on blobby jr....."1006 mb low is located over the NW Caribbean near 19n85w moving
WNW about 5 kt. The low appears to be a little better organized
than earlier today with increasing banding features. In
addition pressures have been slowly falling near the low
center. This system has the potential to become a tropical
cyclone within 36 hours or near Yucatan or the srn Gulf. An
upper low is NW of the surface low... somewhat hindering its
development but all models suggest this upper feature will fade
with time and create more ridge aloft after the low enters the
Gulf of Mexico in a day or two."

I think the key is..does it go over the Yucatan OR does it go more NW into the gulf? There is still a front coming down on Thursday. Does it pick junior up...like Opal did OR does it continue west. Models have it going west. Time will tell.
WillJax - Cool. Many interesting philospohical statements above. From what I have read, scientists know only know the orbit of the Earth with any resonable precision back to about 5 MYA, and beyond 50 MYA it is unknowable due to its chaotic nature.
Here is a link to one recent paper (abstract only):

Link

Scientists in the field consider both weather and climate as chaotic, any order we can perceive may be due to basins of attraction, which can be shifting due to long-term forcing trends (insolation, atmospheric changes, radioactive decay in the Earth's core...)

As for "where" we are, here, there, anywhere...special relativity says it is no place special, meteorology and paleoclimatology tell us what matters is our relative distance and orientation to Ole' Sol...and whatever other astronomical bodies that are nearby or may have come blasting through in the past.
Houstonian, I think it is already a weak storm, so here's my prediction: Off the coast of Merida, MX (northern tip of Yucatan), cat. 2 (with a possibility of cat. 3), same time as yours, landfall eventually between Corpus Christi and Brownsville, wiht lower chances from Port Arthur to Corpus Christi, and Brownsville to Tampico, MX. The path will be much like Emily's, but shifted just a bit farther north. My odds on all of this are 11-1, because of the high number of variables, so stay tuned...
Here is another excerpt from the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook. The bold part is what I found to be very interesting:

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED JUST SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE PRODUCING STRONG NLY
SHEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE MOSTLY
N OF 16N W OF 75W IN THE BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND NEAR THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. A 1006 MB LOW...AS
DESCRIBED IN SPECIAL FEATURES...IS NEAR 19N86W AND HAS A BURST
OF CONVECTION OVER IT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SEVERAL BANDING
FEATURES.
THE E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES...E OF ABOUT
67W...ARE UNDER THE SUBSIDENT REGIME OF THE UPPER LOW NE OF THE
AREA AND ITS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS TO ISLA
MARGARITA...SO SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT. WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE W
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHILE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES IN THE E CARIBBEAN. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES WHERE A LITTLE UPPER INSTABILITY COULD ENHANCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
Not a couple banding features, mind you, but SEVERAL. This sucker is already a storm.
And here's a question that'll take the rest of the day to answer: What's it gonna do, and where's it gonna go?
uk and nogaps put a system in the middle gulf at the end of there runs....interesting.
anyone notice that the nhc lists #19 as #20 now???? typo I guess
hey all we now have TD 20 but i would like to no where did TD 19 go is it that there too or not?
343. IKE
Im surprised td 20 isn't forecast to get picked up by a cold front coming down next Wednesday/Thursday. Apparently it isn't forecast to be strong enough to grab it. Looks like a Mexican storm...as of now.
344. IKE
I guess td19 in the far eastern Atlantic dissipated.
It's there.

They pulled this error with Rita and Phillipe, too.
We are probably going to have Stan and Tammy at the end of the day, and if a Bahamian system does develop, that would be Vince. I am now convinced to stick with my prediction of 24 storms.
OK who is the guy running the NHC web site?? they had TD 20 up now they took that down and put back TD 19??????
they fixed it..
Alpha will be used this year...
I'll post this link here as well.... What do you folks here think about the water temperatures displayed here. I myself am willing to predict good chances for a solid revitalisation of the TD19 system if it is able to crawl over the Yucatan and remain somewhat intact when it gets into the western part of the Gulf.
Ref. this: Link
The dry air over the Gulf is also clearly dissipating.
19 and 20 are two different things. 20 is in the Carib and may move over the Yuc. 19 is going out to sea. 19 will likely get named and 20 may, but I am even more uncertain as to wether it will get named prior to moving over the Yuc.
Hi I'm located in South central Louisiana and have been enjoying all your information through Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Now I have a question where do you all find the pictures that show all the computer model tracks that the storms can? Reading these blogs are very addicting. Katrina passed to the east of us and Rita passed to the west. Now I wonder if a strike 3 to Louisiana would be a bulls eye for us.
The low in the vicinity of 19N 86W looks like it is bound to drift across the Yucatan, maybe ending up in the Bay of Campeche. Climatologically, it is getting near that time of year when it is not that unusual for systems to linger in the Bay of Campeche, sometimes dieing there from upwelling, like 1995 Roxanne:

Link

Conditions sem somewhat similar, although if the current trough approaching the western Gulf passes over TD 20 or just partially grabs the cyclone Mexico or Southeast Texas could be threatened. The waters in the Bay seem to be cooler on the west Yucatan coast, but get warmer towards the west.
Dr. Masters has a new post.
thanks tornadoty
anyone think the storm could hit more north in FL tampa or more north?