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Caribbean disturbance strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2005

The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean sea, southwest of Jamaica, is now strengthening. The amount of deep convection has increased considerably since this morning, and this system now appears well on its way to becoming Tropical Depression 19 by tomorrow. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area Thursday morning at 8 am EDT.

Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days. Upper level outflow channels have opened to the northeast and southwest, and a small upper-level anticyclone is over the system, helping ventilate the air pushed to the upper atmosphere by the strong updrafts in the storm's deep convection.

The disturbance is moving at about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. None of the computer forecast models develop the system, so their tracks of the disturbance are dubious. The GFS model takes the disturbance across western Cuba on Saturday. The BAMM model takes the system across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems more reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Early run of the BAMM model takes the Caribbean disturbance into the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL model disippates the system immediately.

Africa westward
The ITCZ is active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. Some of the global computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm will develop along this area later this week. There are currently no suspect areas to focus on, though.

Hawaii and Baja
Hawaii is watching Tropical Storm Kenneth, which is expected to pass though the Islands Friday and Saturday. Kenneth should only be a tropical depression by then, but may bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding to the islands. Tropical depressions that have passed though the islands in previous years have caused serious flooding problems.

The Baja Peninsula is watching newly-formed Tropical Depression 15E, which may threaten the Baja Peninsula as a tropical storm by Sunday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So Dr. Masters, it should not travel to Northwest FL then?
21 he can't say that no one can. till it develops and we get better model runs we will know for sure where its going. but to help u out it looks unlikley that would happen but that does not mean its impossible
Never say never. Remember Opal went across the peninsula and then about 2 a.m. decided to take a big hook and head straight for us (i'd give you the link but I don't know how). Pretty weird deja vu.
What kind of accuracy has the BAMM model had in the past?
I should clarify that.......What kind of accuracy has it had after a storm is at least a TS?
see thats the thing. some of the global models no longer form this huge ridge of the gulf of mexico. so we will needto wait to see where she goes
hi all..... well I can tell you the Carribean wave is carrying a little wind with it and lots of rain.... raining hard here in the Caymans and we're just on the outside edge of it
It'll be very interesting to see. After seeing TD 10 dissappear and then reform into Katrina, anything is possible.
Are there Rita leftovers still out in the Gulf?
crab she is on the verge of td . and is possibly stronger than that. she is 1009mb low and maybe lower at today the low level circulation has gotten strong and very evedidnt. as well as the deep convection over the center. she will be a td in 6-12 hrs and a ts in 24-36 hrs.
gbreezegirl,
i remember opal all too well. i was stuck on the i-10 bridge heading east when she jumped up to a cat 4 and went from meandering to about 20 mph forward speed. after being on the bridge for almost five hours, finally got off and jumped up to hwy 90. then a torando ran me in a ditch right outside of crestview.
sewmap, tyhere was a low that formed fromthe frontalboundary that absorbed rita. that low is void ofmuch convection and is being sheared by the ull that was shearing the wave in the carribean. that low will likely dissipate in 12-36 hrs. no threat at all
gotcha....thanks lefty
Leftyy - seems to be the pattern this time of year for them to form on top of us and then scoot. Looks like the shear might be keeping baby stan away from us, do you think?
crab that shear is liftinf north and every minute it is lifting put even quicker. that shear was casued by an ull that is now being pulled north pretty quickly. heres a link to a evry good water vapor and you can see that ull moving north

Link
sorry i can;t get a link to the loop for that one. here is another wv loop just as good

Link
I see what you mean.... hope that doesn't mean to pull baby Stan northward rather than toward the Yucatan. Thanks for the info.
Why do storms that form in the Pacific, and hit say China, seem to be so much larger and appear to have much higher sustained winds thyan those that form in the Atlantic? Is it simply because the Pacific storm have more time over open water?
sewamp the sst are much higher in the western pacific than those in the atlantic.
Ahhhh....that makes sense.....
Is that Rita off the panhandle of Florida?
This doesn't have much to do with hurricanes, but...

I just found this satellite image from the winter of 1979:



That blizzard had an eye! O_O

Is it possible with this hurricane season that we could see a blizzard like this on the East Coast this winter?!?
Anyone there? (echo...echo) What kind of an October do you think we will have this year? I predict 3 storms, (putting us at 21 with Stan getting named on the last day of September) 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. That's my story and I'm sticking with it. See you guys later.
Mitch was a Category 5 in October. Late October at that.
look --- possible low development off SE coast next week!

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=0&article=5
Yes I do believe that is remnants of Rita. Big dark cloud towards Gulf out of office window as we speak. Had showers this morning. Biggest part of it looks to be off of Gulf Shores now. Still spinning!
From the Hurricane page @WU This showed up a while ago


Tracking Info For Hurricane Rita


Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 GMT 09/23/05 27.4N 91.9W 135 929 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/23/05 28.2N 92.6W 125 930 Category 3 Hurricane



i hav updated my blog
Hillsb,

I think the data you cite is a perfect example of why pressure should be the primary factor in determining the category of tropical systems. It is much easier for the recon to find a pinpoint pressure center at sea level, but a whole different story when it comes to finding the highest winds when they may be found anywhere in the eyewall. Finding the highest winds becomes especially difficult when you consider that they could be occurring at various altitudes, and the circumference of a hurricane eyewall may be anywhere from say 50 to 120 miles.
primez I LIKE THE PHOTO ON THERE DID IT GET A NEAME LIKE JO?
primez~ that reminds me of the '93 "storm of the century". I looked for a corilation. '78 only had 12 named storms, though I remember David (cat 5) hittin us in '79. There was even less storms for '92, but there was Andrew. '95 had a good year with 19. The record # for a year was '33 with 21. couldn't find anything about a blizzard around then. Anyone remember any?
any chance this will develop and move up the east coast of Florida. I'm talking about blob/TS Stan.
Hillsb,

To supplement what I said about pressure being the primary determining factor, I don't believe it should be the only factor. If there is substantial evidence that the winds are not keeping up with the pressure - whether from recon, Dvorak numbers, radar, etc. - then it does seem reasonable that a lower category would be justified. I think it would be necessary for the NHC to state the specific reasons for a lower category.

So, to sum it up, start with the pressure as a baseline, and if substantial evidence suggests otherwise, make an adjustment to the category.
MIAWX, that's how Ophelia formed...guess Tammy could be on the way too.
active hurricane season correspond w/winters that usually have strong nor'easters forming in the Atlantic
any chance this will develop and move up the east coast of Florida. I'm talking about blob/TS Stan.
East coast or West coast caneman? That thing would have
to take a funky turn to come up the East coast.
NWS offices in Florida hint at a tropical low
affecting Florida by this time next week from the Atlantic side. Anyone latched on to this?
It's bad enough that my wife ignores me but the weather blog too??? Any signs of life out there?
Okay,

Okay, I just got done looking a the most recent satellite shots on the NWS website, if I were a betting man, Id say the blob is a blob no more and is, instead a td right now. I'd would not be suprised if Stan is officially born in the next 48 hours.
Things will run slow until this thing makes TD status and all the model runs start coming in. Basically there's still nothing going on and everyone on here is in wait and see mode.

Check out what Joe B. says on my blog.. TOO long to post on here
Hooked,

Please learn to respect copyrights and pay attention to this notice that is at the top of every one of Joe Bastardi's posts on the AccuWeather Pro site:

"Joe's column and graphics are AccuWeather, Inc. Redistribution in whole or in part is prohibited."

Commenting on something he said or referencing his predictions is reasonable, but it just isn't cool to be posting his entire column online every time you think he says something interesting.
I have made a new forecast track for developing TD19 in the NW Caribbean: Link
I'm not sure if this is correct but it doesn't look like that high is where it should be to push Bloby in to mexico. Could someone please clarify how this is supposed to happen (Preferably with pictures as I am still quite the noob to all this)? Also if it is a preexisting high that is moving across the U.S. right now (Thats an IF because Im not sure if thats whats being refrenced here) then if blob/Stan got far enough north on time wouldn't it push it first NNW, then at the end NNE? (Think Ivan like track)
where is everyone on here tonight have not seen it this dead since long before EMILY came to town.
Primez, are you still watching the board?
Hi Everyone. I'm here just lurking since I didn't get any work done this morning, I am making it up right now :( No rest for the wicked
hurricane79 what do u expect the strenght to be in your track at landfall
Hey Coconut, Take a look..... looks like a monster or something on this water vapor, right off your coast.

Link
It looks like it's smiling in the last couple of frames....

I want my mommy!
Scaldisnoel* Sry

I understand but the only winds that mater on @ water/ Ground level up to building & tree hight. They have been extrapolating that from flight level winds for a long time. I was just curious why it suddenly poped up after having nothing in the Atlantic list for quite a while.

RE: Rita Statistics On Hurricane page!
LOL NUT! Hey at least its not orange and looks like Elmo.

Here ya go, this is a fascinating for Sat Images.

Link
I don't think that will develop into anything.

Although, I could be wrong.
Nut? :)
Term of endearment or observation on my sanity? hmmm......

Well I'm off to watch lost. Check in later.
Hillsb,

True statement about the only winds that matter are from "water/ Ground level up to building & tree hight" when assigning category.

My point is that no matter what level the recon flight is at when recording max winds and extrapolating to the surface, the chances of finding the location of maximum winds that can be extrapolated to the surface is slim. Also, their extrapolations, as noted by Lefty, if I remember correctly from the posts during the leadup to Rita's landfall, seem to be somewhat arbitrary (or at the very least unexplained).
been studying the blob and i would not be suprised to see the low leve circulation cenetr reform north under the deepst convection. its hard to see right now casue we have no visible satelite but just a thought
A couple of polar lows, with eyes.. the second had a bulk eyewall rotation speed of 67 mph, i.e. about equivalent to Cat. 1




Evidently, other storms besides hurricanes can have eyes.
Near the Caymans leftyy???...the latest GFS finally does develop the system but to the north in that vicinity..Thought it was too far north but it may be on to something...
leftty i sent you mail please read it and write me back.
Lefty,

Can you respond to my previous post up there about the high? I'm still confused about it.
scaldisnoel: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml is linked to right on the sidebar and explains the extrapolation.
High pressure will be building in behind trough that is pushing down over the Central US..This front will wash out near the Gulf states this weekend, but the High pressure will build in behind the front over the Mid-Atlantic states and strengthen..This will thus block any movement of wave to the N or NE towards Florida...We hope..LOL..
yeah wg thts exactly what gopt me looking at it even closer and the deep cnvection will draw the circulation north anyway


so to all y guys wondering about track this is why u can not speculate till its formed as the center can reform many times while it orginises
Just on break for a minute. Anything else out there other than the blob?

How far N Lefty?
Does anyone else see a spin south of BlobStan crossing Panama into the Pacific? Can it have any effect on BlobStan? Link
yeah wg but some modles leave the central gulf wide open with where the high sets up behind that trof. thats what i don't like to much.
Most models have this high pressure there, some stronger then others...How strong it is will determine where our TD or Stan will go..
bout 100 miles sj. just north of jamaica and the caymans
Is this a picture of the mentioned high?

Link

If so... Isnt it to far north and west to keep this thing out of Florida? (assuming that IS it and it doesnt move a little quicker?)
Yep exactly..Some models not as strong..Still sticking with the GFS on this one for now..Especially if it does form northward..But that formation did get me alittle concerned when i saw it on the 18Z GFS..At least for Texas...
AySz88,

Interesting stuff, thanks for the link.
this is funny. so according to nhc they were suppose to use 90 percent on rita but used 20 percent as the method fpr determining winds is not set in stone and allows the forcaster leeway. when u have a 930 system u should always use 90 percent in my opinion

Based on these and similar analyses for other normalization altitudes, the following reduction factors are recommended for reducing flight-level winds in the inner core of a tropical cyclone to the surface (33 ft) level: for the 700 mb level, R = 0.90; for the 850 mb level (commonly flown in tropical storms), R = 0.80. For investigative flights at 1,000 ft, R = 0.85. As significant variations from these means have been noted in individual storms; these guidelines can be modified as conditions warrant. Storm-to-storm variability will primarily be influenced by wind speed, cyclone convective intensity, and sea-surface temperature
Yeah alittle confused by this to leftyy...But I guess we need to start working for the NHC that way we could make the rules..LOL..
see wg i would have not been so baffeled if they used 15 percent when the presure went up 4 mbs but they went from 10 to 20 percent even though the flight level winds remained the same and the only difference was the pressure went from 929 to 930 lol. thats what i don't get more than anything
Lefty,

You latched on to the same quote I did when reading the article that AySz88 linked to. This all supports my basic point that trying to estimate surface winds based on flight level winds that may or may not be the highest in the storm is, at best, a crapshoot. The somewhat subjective nature of the "rules" for extrapolation lends itself to, intentionally or not, extrapolating to match your forecast.
hey u guys that new show invasion is comming on abc. good show u miht like it. i am recording it on the divo so i can watch it with the wife when she gets home
sc so true and it felt like thats what they were doing.
yeah it only goes up 1mb and you lower the winds that much..doesnt make sense to me..maybe they saw something on sat. or radar that made them determine this, or maybe the forecaster was asleep..LOL..Maybe we will never know, will be interesting to see if it ever happens again..Well time to call it a night, long day tomorrow, see ya later leftyy...
Yep leftyy going to watch it with wife right now..LOL..see ya later...
peace wg. cath u tomm
Jeez Lefty you're really obsessed with this 90 percent/80 percent flight level:surface wind ratio re: Rita. What are you trying to say? Either a) you're smarter than all the NHC meterologists, or b) the NHC deliberately undercut the strength of the hurricane because ... what would be their reason? Were the trying to fool people in Houston into staying to up death totals? What's your play on this and why are you still harping about it more than 96 hours later?
i feel more certain the llc of the blob has shifted north. the deep convection is excploding while the rest of the convection is waning. the waters up there are also hotter so explosive development could be even more likely
mystery, i didn;t start the convo dog. i only clicked the link and commented. maybe u should read the link and than see who started the convo cause it wasnot me. my concern right now is on the blob in the carribean.
WG03,

Were you saying exactly to me? (I get confused with all the posts on this blog). If you were I have another question... Look at the high and the cold front associated with it. It has a hook at the bottom (at least the CF does). I assume (Once again, Im a noob so this has no factual basis and is just a guess) that this front would lose the hook and staighten out? If it did wouldnt that basically make a straight line running SW to NE across the gulf? If it did would that steer blob boy to the NE gulf coast? (By NE gulf coast I mean FL PH, MS, AL)
hi all
flg. most likely the fron will curl mpre and the front won;t reach the central gulf or affect the blob

check it out this is the front 48 hrts from now

Link

and here is what happens to it at 72 hrs

Link
flg its way to early for a cold front to be strongh enough to get deep into the gulf and thur florida. thats a winter type scenarion and we are barely in to fall
FLGLFCST,
looks to me like "blob" goes more W
leftyy420,
Mexico Blob?
You guys are talk about the new convection to the north but the overall low still appears to be just ENE of Honduras. Not further north.
also don;t look at the forcast map for the track of the blob. its never right. the forcast map is the nws and they fallow the bamm pretty much while if she forms than the nhc takes over forcasting and they us a variety of models. so don;t look at that map for blobby's path
ej, earlier today a llc formed and that llc will shift north under the deep convection. also its a broiad area of low pressure so the center will form anywhere in that area. its going to form more north and is what the gfs hinted at and probly why the gfdl has yet to grab a hold of the system
also ej what makes u so sure it is not reforming north?
agree leftyy, but still s outh rio
Mystery,

In defense of Lefty, I am the one to blame for starting this thread of discussion regarding extrapolation of flight level winds tonight. I don't think anyone is suggesting sinister motives or incompetence on the part of the NHC. The point is, from one recon to the next during Rita's approach to landfall, they changed their calculation factor, without sufficient explanation of why. It may have been totally justified, but the reasons weren't clear.
not if the system is refroming where i think it is.
also the convection is geting the classic coma shape of a td . thats also why i feel the llc has reformed to the north.

I hear ya lefty... Maybe so we will see..
Have you heard anything about a tropical low affecting the East Coast this time next week? The NWS offices here in Florida have caught onto that possibility. Has me a little concerned.
looks like to me its got a clockwise rotation.Why is this?Or I may have had to many beers.
dunno. it might be this system or the wave by the lesser antilies or a system like riat and ophelia that will form out of an area of convergance from the aproaching front. all those are possibilities
Look at the overall envelope... It appears to be rotating around a center ENE of Honduras. This is my take from the satellite pictures I have seen.
104. mobal
interesting, I will stand by a mex event, but we all know it is way out, w/ little steering. LOL to the gulf coast
the whole system is centered under and upper high so ur seeing the anticyclonic flow of the outflow around that high .
ej thats becasue it was a broud area of low pressure. these things will form and reform there low level circulations with in that brouad area. thats why it is hard to fix the center or where a track will be till a system forms.
That may be, but it seems like every blog entry has a comment from him about how Rita had to be at least a Cat 4 on landfall. At this point, does it matter?
108. mobal
I think A98E may have this one ...man...lol
Hey blizzard drink one for me!!!
lol mystery meat. i have not mentioned riat in 2-3 days befor today. ur an idiot
Ok, cool on the CF. My base question was about the high that was "Supposed" to protect us. Where is it now? Is there any indication of what it is doing? And is there any where that shows its location and movement?

In addition to all these questions LOL... What does it mean if he reforms to the north of current location? I know this changes track outcome, but how much would say it changes it... Not asking for a landfall location, but an idea of what a northward shift would do would be nice.

BTW, I only ask because Im curious and do not fully grasp how all this works yet.
ok the high will build in behind the front. its 2-3 days away and iots exact orientataion can not be fixed but i still belive florida to be pretty safe as of right now. what the models ahve been showing, besides the fact none of them have picked up on the blob yet, is that the high might be over the se us and not in the gulf and would leave any area from the central gulf coast and west in the possible cone. all this is peculation at this point though
113. mobal
leftyy, gdf? thought it picked it up?
lefty just please make the high sit right on top of La
Please. Put
115. mobal
putintang3

not righgt, france looks GOOD
gfdl and no it hasn't. thats why it dissipates it in less than 12 hours with each un. also last nights run even formed a system than blew it south at 40+kts than dissipated it. it was really funny. no model has any real handle on it . the bamm has it but remebr the bamm is not the best model for a stregthening cyclone so if it does do what the ships intensity model says it will do and be a cat 2 in 3 days the bamm will not have a handle on it. also if it reforms more north, like it think it is doing, than the bamm model run would need to be shifted north . but at this point no global model has a handle on it so track is up in the air. i still feel a path into the gulf either over cuba or just betwen cuba and the yucatan is a good bet
118. mobal
leftty,
yea, just ran in it, hope they are right,

the last i ran was to long ago.
hey 79
120. mobal
leftyy420
gentlemens bet,(no $) etc..., disipates or Mex ?
After seeing the convection begin to develop
West of where it dissipated earlier today, I am suprised to see the concentration so far North now. Although, if I was asked yesterday, I would have thought the current convection is right where it should be. Just goes to show how unpredictable a developing system can be....
122. mobal
i am saying mex or gone
yeah 79. its the fun of them thoug


mo, i will say it wonlt dissipate but track is in the air. its going to be dependent on the building high and its orientation so i won;t go into track but i will say it will form
worse part 7 is now we have to wait til after the black out, 2 hours or so, befor we have any more info on whats happening
The most important question before us (other that, will it develop?) is, will this system linger in the NW Caribbean and South Gulf, or move WNW over the next 4 to 5 days. The location and strength of the ridge forecasted over the Eastern US will tell us all the answer to that. If that ridge is a bit further South and stronger, we will see a West Gulf system. If that ridge is centered over the Mid atlantic or further North, then we may see a storm that meanders and waits for a trough to arrive. Both are possible scenarios.
126. mobal
ok, night all, leftyy is scaring me, will check plywood.

I enjoyed it
yeah 79
yeah lefty, that map I made yesterday seems more correct than the one I made today. (Yesterdays had it goung over the Caymans as a depression by Thursday) Todays has it in the Yucatan Sunday,,, woops.... I am glad this is a disturbance and not a major hurricane at this point. Do you agree that there is a chance of a lingering system for a few days near the Yucatan channel?
I told you all 3.5 days ago - no tropical development for a week. That's still 3.5 days away.
yeah its possible 79


ok wannabe good for you. i will get u a cookie
The convection this evening may be blowing up farther north, but the surface pressure at Grand Cayman is still a high 1012 mb.
only 2mb higher tha the pressure of the low itself
From the past few nights observations, I have seen an area of convection form during daylight that fades during the early nighttime hours (Diurnal), however, this area is what the models and the TPC are howing as the low center referred to in their discussions. The problem with this is that for the past 3 nights, the low level swirl that they observe dissipates during the night...Similar to what it is doing now. I keep seeing a more dominant mid level circulation surviving... This same area that most people in this blog are seing explode tonight. I am 70% sure that the mid level circulation near 18N 80.5W will emerge as the actual LLC for this developing system. This redevelopment of the cyclone closer to the mid level center has occurred several times this season already.
so if it is reformng north not much of a leap from 1010 to 1012
lefty you still mad about our wager?
wwannabe, dont know about a week. if its been 3.5 days, then you will be close.. how about 4.5 to 5 days
Leap in pressure, No. Leap in location, huge!
I still say another 3.5 days, blobby jr is an underachiever
no, just u come in here with crap and offer nothing to the blog. but hey what ever floats ur boat. i could care less about our wager. u are the one who cared so much
Updated GFS. . . Animate from the beginning to end and tell me what you think. I'll read the comments tomorrow.Look at the Gulf and the East coast.



Link
You know, looking at the WV for the East US, the system over the Caribbean will have a trough pass by to the North first, before the ridge builds in: Link This would support an even more Northward movement over the next 36 hours.
that is the old run. new run be out ina hour
yeah 79 the question is how strong the ridge will be.
Lefty, that is the main question. I saw the GFS, which has a strong ridge from 72 hours out to 150 hours out, but only one model.... I do not trust any of the TPC models, who do not pick up the shift of the system's reformation. The GFS did it nicely in the last run and has been calling for the strong ridge... I will wait half an hour to see what the GFS has to say next....As we know, until it is a depression, the models are just considered a "best guess"
sorry 79 i meant trough

how strong the trough is and how far south it digs
yeah 79
Lefty I saw yer prediction a few days ago - Stan in 12 hours LOL wrong again Lefty. But you gave some good reasons that sounded real nice to support yer prediction, but you were once again,WRONG. Just like always lefty.
Weatherwannabe, I am not one to argue, but please treat other bloggers with respect.. Unless you are freinds with Lefty, then have fun.... Otherwise, take care in what you say here. There are a couple hundred lurkers here that do not know if you are just having fun, or are giving Lefty a truly hard time, like the other night. Bottom line, refrain from the trash talk in this blog, unless it is backed up by Meteorlogical Fact.
wannabe, go back and look i never said stan in 12 hrs.
Yeah lefty, but I noticed that the GFS has been prediciting some activity around the East coast but it has jumped back and forth. I will look at the new GFS model tomorrow.

By the way. . . The GFS seems like it has been doing a really good job of predicting possible tropical development. When Dr. Masters thought that there would not be enough energy to create Nate and Ophelia, the GFS got it right. It also kinda got Ophelia's track right.
wannabe, go find the post and post here than. prove me wrong. casue ur eiother seeing things or miss read what i wrote.
Oh no darn it, jsut when I was starting to learn something.
gosh lefty it sounds like you are gettin a little riled up again I don't want to sift through a thousand posts to find yers - I know what it said. I'm going to start keeping track of yer predictions in my blog just fer fun.
Geez, Wannabe.....can't you just read everyone's comments like the rest of us, without attacking? We are all in here to speculate...and learn. We learn from others... and from our mistakes, and other's mistakes. No need to beat each other up if we are not perfect. If you want kudos when you are right, then be nice, or you won't get them from anyone but that guy in the mirror.
I was wondering if the Gulf of Mexico would be able to produce another big hurricane? A meterologist suggests that the last 2 storms stirred the Gulf leaving cooler tempatures. The cooler temps would not be able to let another storm develope this season. Any truth?
ok wannabe. not riled up but u made a statement and i asked u to prove and u can't lol. thats funny
Well, I trust lefty's comments, so I will listen when he has something to say in response to others or my own weather points. End of story
gator we may not see anotehr rita or katrina but there is enough heat content and deep warm eddy's to support a cat3 or 4. remebr the saem thiong was said after katrina and what did we get. rita
I just think its funny that this feller lefty is the expert 'round these parts and I never seen the old boy right 'bout nuthin at all. I got no formal training at all in this here weather business and I been predicterin the hurrricanes and such more accuratley than the expert himself. All I got is these here God given eyeballs and a little common sense thats all. You dont need fancy pants talk and all just some good eyes and keen obseration. A picture tells a thousand stories if y'all would jsut listen. them there satellites are there for a good reason.
I beg your pardon, I was under the impression this was a blog. How dare you insult someone like that.Well not to worry this is not the only weather site on the net, I'll be sure to pass around just how great it was here to my other friends viewing,,, Oh wait, I guess I just did.
lefty this here is where I resepectful dis'gree with ya'll, its common sense that this is the Fall and so this time is different than Katrina and Rita. You ain't gonna see any more cat 3+ roaming the Gulf looking fer targets in 2005. You are gonna havta wait until next season, son. Look at that TCHP chart its still not lookin all that healthy. I know you like that SST chart better and all, but it ain't the end all chart of the tropical heat business, son.
Weatherwannabe, can you shut up? Please?

I don't post much. I'm a humble users who likes to read.

But when people like you begin arguing for a moronic reason like that, I get ticked off.

Go fight a pillow. Or bite your fingers off. That's always fun...
I was watching the IR Floater loop for the developing system. A spot near 18.5N 80.5W has had cloud top temps below -70C for over 4 hours now.

For a system that is not the most organized, this would be a strong candidate for an area for a low level center to form.
So Wannabe, if you want to believe only what you see on the satellites, why are you in this discussion at all? Just to tell everyone what you think, in hopes that we will crown you "king" wannabe? Everyone clap for King Wannabe, and let's get it over with, so maybe he will find better ways to amuse himself and let us have our hurricane discussion back. (I feel like I'm back in grade school with all this bickering over being the best. *sigh* )
yeah 79, right where i would put it
By the way, wannabe. Can you please type so whenever I read it I don't assume you are a redneck? To tell you the truth, it's more annoying than Lefty's typos.

Now can we get back to the weather?
Amen herewegoagain, We want forecasts and answers. Criticism is saved for emails... I am open to all forecasts on this system in the Caribbean so we can make more accurate forecasts to save lives.... Anyone in this blog, or watching, please give your input or forecast, for this is another one that the US may have to worry about.
ok 79 black out time
who me? I'm just an old boy with 2 keen eyes, good recollection and a good disposition if I have a couple befur coming on here. Maybe fancy pants talk aint really gonna help you all out as much as you all think. Maybe thar is more to this here business than reading a couple of them condensed bookd and taking a community colege class in clouds. Now this here Dr Masters is a lot smarter than some of you all and he's got them good instincts too he's a real smart charater with street smarts and book smarts. Maybe this lefty character could get some lessons from him to improve his weather 'bilities and all ya tink?
what is your prediction for Invest 99L weatherwannabe?
why thanks fer asking where can I see a picture of this 99?
yeah lefty, I wish there was a buoy near 20N 80W like the NDBC has near every 5 degree tick like they have everywhere else. I am sure the US Gov, wishes that at this point as well. Now they must wait for 4 hours along with us for live satellite. I am curious to see what the 205 discussion may show as far as location is concerned...
weatherwannabe: The link is here: Link
yeah 79. they hinted at it in the 1030 disscussion but not much
One ominous thing about 1933 and its 21 storms was what happened that winter--it was extremely cold over the northeast US, and Febrary 1934 was the coldest month of all time in NYC and Boston. A horrible cold wave on Febrary 9th brought temps to -15 F in Central Park, -11 F in downtown Philadelphia, and -18F in downtown Boston. All of these are all time records. February 1934 was also the coldest month of all time in Detroit, until Jan 1977 replaced it. February 1934 was also quite snowy, here are some links showing how cold and snowy Feb was in Central Park. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/warmcoldyearsmonths.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/snowiestmonths.html

So in NYC Feb 1934 was the coldest month of all time, and the snowiest February.

Not saying that will happen again--but just think of what that would do to energy prices!
Like I been saying all along that system is havin a real hard time at it. I dont know why it cant get its act together an all but its just stugglin to get itself organized. I'm bettin that that 99 will not get its act together until jsut before it hots that Yucitan Penninsula. It might make a run at a TS and that land there is REAL flat so it might try to make a run into the Bay of Campeche to reform into a hurrican and there is some heat potential down in that bay so it could happen. But we're talking about 3.5 days like I said before.
st, i totally feel active hurricane seasons bring colder winters. like a balancing of the hot and cold. we will see but i hope its right casue i would love some good nor easters. i enjoy tracking a nor easter as much as a cane. also cause i love getting a foor of snow and playing in it wit my kids lol
December 1933 also brough a cold wave that sent the temp down to -6F in Central Park.
It gonna be a REAL cold winter the furry caterpillers are out, the skunks are alrady diggin fer grubs and the squirrels have been gatherin nuts for weeks.
okay, this whole board got taken up by dueling attackers last night.

Lefty, you shouldn't have to explain yourself if you don't want to. Your forecasts change due to changing weather. Anyone in their right mind would see that your forecasts are dynamic, not static. You are not perfect all of the time, but I find myself agreeing with you more than the next person, that is why I don't chime in.

Weatherwannabe, man give it a rest. You're not perfect either, and I have yet to see you back up your predictions with anything of substance. You just go on the attack like a rabid dog, and Lefty's trying to teach us about the weather, and state his opinions on things. Opinions are like brains, if you don't utilize them, they break down and disappear. So, do us a favor, use your brains, tell us what you think, disagree with us if you want to, but keep it civil. It won't help anyone to hear how stupid her prediction was, or how wrong he is. This person f'ed up, blah, blah, blah! A big reason why people don't post their questions and lurk is because they have to read through a full page of posts on how wrong everyone is! So keep it civil, agree to disagree, and let everyone in on your knowledge instead of telling everyone that disagrees with you that they are wrong. I bet most of the lurkers agree with Lefty on his predictions. I want to learn what you think, not what you want others to think...
wannabe -- FALL ??? FALL??? give me a break -- 104 here in H town today 115 heat index (record highs persist all over the south)-- theres plenty of fuel left down here to fascilitate any category hurricane that the conditions will allow
Alright, sounds good
Houston the cold weather is comin fast you will feel it soon.
what 88 for two days then more record heat -- BRRRR cant wait
OK after the 1995 season was the great northeastern blizzard of Jan 1996, and after 1969 which set the record for the most hurricanes (12) and was third in tropical and subtropical storms put together (18) Jan 1970 was extremely cold, with northern New England having the coldest month of all time in Jan 1970. The 1969-1970 winter saw one of the greatest snowstorms of all time over the INTERIOR northeast with widespread 30"-50" accumulations from interior PA to interior New England but no big accumulations in the big cities. Jan 1970 was very cold, but dry with no big snows. Jan 1970 was also the only time that down here on St. Simons there were 4 nights in a row with lows in the teens.
Steve Gregory comments on the LBAR:
"... reminds me of the Barotropic model. It stayed around for many years after it had outlived it's usefullness."

79, how far north of the previous estimated center is that point about which you were talking? The combination of his jumping center and his deceleration are making the GFS's northward jog scenario seem more realistic.
I wonder about 2 things--whether the energy infrastructure could handle the demands of cold outbreaks like those after the three busiest hurricane seasons--and also whether cities could cope with the homeless and keep them from freezing to death. The coldest it has been in Central Park since the end of World War II was -2F on several occasions, but nothing close to the -15F.
and the darn turkeys are already looking like they are ready for Thanksgiven - its gonna be a cold nasty winter in these parts at least.
Be home around three thirty. Hope to see some of ya'll then. The blob looks great going in to blackout tonight for the first time.

That is a huge jump N Lefty, but I htink you could be right. See ya'll.
oooh and get this--1887 was the busiest hurricane season of the 19th century (leaving aside how accurate the records were) with 19 storms and hurricanes. In March 1888--the great blizzard!
I got 2 big dogs, a lady and an 'lectric heater so I wont worry bout them gas bills this winter
The more I look at crazy busy hurricane seasons and then what happened in the winter afterwards, the stronger the link looks!
Willjax, the NHC has been watching a wek low today near 15N 80.5W, however, being a weak system a new formation of a low center is very much possible. The area of convection persisting near the Caymans several hours before the blackout began had a mid level rotaion near 18N 80.5W. This convection, having such cold cloud tops, and being so persistent over one area, could produce low pressure below it at the surface, especially, when any low nearby was weak and broad.. Anyhow 18N, 80.5W
k sj i will be here.


guys wife is home so i a gonna finish dinner so we can eat and watch the new show invasion. will be back in ahour or 2.

peace out
Later lefty
202. Manny
Hey everybody,

Decided to check in tonight. Haven't had much time lately and I poured a pot of water with a TCHP of about 212 degrees on my leg tonight!

Looks like TD 19 should form tomorrow though.
I see from reading back over the past few minutes that nothing much has changed during my hiatus due to Rita. As I post this I am sweating slightly in the pale light of my Coleman lantern. Cooked ribeyes over the propane grill earlier...alot like camping out only with a few more conveniences. Spent the afternoon (yesterday and today) helping friends cover their bare roofs with tarps and tar paper

Yesterday after helping one friend with his roof, he decided he was going to move his two horses to another friend's pasture a mile away (his fences had been downed by Rita). I rode one horse, he rode the other...supposedly he was on the crazier of the two. About halfway there a pretty good thermal thunderstorm hit us and the lightning freaked out the horse I was on. I tell you, I was much more scared on that horse in that open field with lightning and blinding rain than I ever was during eyewall passage of Rita!

Since I can't spend much time due to short battery life on the laptop, somebody gimme a run down on the disturbance in the Carribean.
LOL, I just found the buoy for Jamaica showing a shift in winds from East to from North in the past hour, possibly indicating a low reformation: Link
StSimonsIslandGAGuy, thank you for the useful info. At least it makes people think. Babbing incoherently about 2 big dogs, a lady, and 'lectric heater doesn't make a person a genius...
SWLA, center location is undetermined an erratic, should be 48 hours before we have a TS.
gees weatherspirit I aint nuthin like that I'm jsuta good ole boy with a truck and a laptop and a little interest in tha weather and all. Don't be ill wishin o this ole boy I don't mean no harm and all.
I still say more like 82 hours H79 but thats just an old coot's guess and all
OK wannabe -- Ill give you your cold winter (you can have it). Ill go out on a limb here with out even checking the surface temp. of the Gulf and say that it is exactly the same as it was for Rita and Katrina. Ill even go one step further and say if anything has changed its gotten slightly warmer. Conditions along the gulf coast will remain ripe for hurricanes and will stay that way for 10 to 14 more days.
Houston that surface there is probally real hot and all - I dont doubt ya at all but I dont know about if its going deep or not maybe you know more than this ole boy since you live right there. And the fall weather patterns are settin in - it's looking like the first freeze might come weeks before usual around here at least - this hurricane season seems like its coming to an abrubt end but thats just an old coots guess.
wannabe how is there going to be a cold winter in the forst place not soon maby in 2 months man record heat in the south were do you live in new yoor or something well with you attiture ill bet you do lol
We are getting the same front early tomorrow and its going to cool us off to a chilly 88 for two days then back to the mid 90's due to antoher infamous giant H.-- 88 sounds REAL good right now
so all whats the deal with this thing is it coming or not
theboldman I dont understand whut ya wrote thar could ya be kind and translate taht fer an old coot?
Houston I'm glad to hear that ya'll are gonna get some coller weather that summer heat has to be broken er everyone loses theor darned minds and turns on each other.
boldman, "coming or not?" where are your at?
relly how old of a coot am i talking to lol and i said really winter coming soon not with all the above normal temps in the south and here in ca for that matter what makes you think taht winter will be here sooner and colder and were do you live in new york with your attitude ill bet you live there lol
Wannabe is somewhere in the 17-18 year old range.
This ole coot wonders what then experts will say when the winter is freezin cold - will the global colling experts start paradin around the news and such?
sacramemento hit in the low 90s today after that weird rain we had monday night
yes willlax im thinking more in the 12 to 14 range myself
sry thats sacramento ca
79 i just looked at the gfs. its just crazy lol. puts lows all over the place in the carribean. finally forms somthing near the yucatan in 10 days
turn them numbers around and divide by 2 and add 10 Jax.
OK a sum up of what I found about winters following the 4 documented seasons with 18 or more storms.

1887--busiest season of the 19th century 19 storms and hurricanes--followed by the blizzard of March 1888

1933--21 storms and hurricanes followed by Feb 1934 coldest month of all time in NYC and Boston, snowiest February of all time in NYC and coldest temps of all time in Boston, -18F; Central Park, -15F; and Philadephia -11F

1969 12 hurricanes (record) and 18 total storms including subtropical storms followed by

Dec 1969 great snowstorm over interion NE with many records set (although not in the megalopolis) and Jan 1970--coldest month of all time in Burlington, VT and Albany, NY

1995--19 storms and hurricanes followed by

The great blizzard of Jan 1996. Heaviest snow of all time in Philadelphia. State snow record set for NJ. Snowiest winter ever for NYC and Boston. Coldest state temp record set in MN.

4 years isn't much--but there aren't many hurricane seasons with 18 or more storms to provide a sample.

Do you think it is a coincidence, or that there is some kind of link? And if any of these past events are repeated, what will it do to the energy situation? Your thoughts please :)
That new GFS hints at 2 lows crossing cuba. It is not clear as to what system is is forecasting. I need to see a deeper system into the models before a computer model sways me. From what I see from the Satellite before the blackout, a shift to the North is necessary.
st in 96 we had 2 fee here in northern va. would not mine a couple feet of snow lol
ST, remind me of this comparison again later this season. or, email me with tha
(SORRY, PC PROBLEMS) ST, remind me of this comparison again later this season. or, email me with that comparison. I would like to possibly use that as a thesis. It seems possible due to more voricity in the mid levels.
Yes, the weather in general like we are about a month behind. This certainly been an above average season, and I wonder if the latter half of the season will continue the trend.

A comment in Steve Lyons Blog of TWC:

"As of today, September 28, there have been 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes; on average 30% of hurricane season remains...with an average of three named storms yet to develop somewhere in the Atlantic basin from now until the end of hurricane season, we wait to see what additional records will fall in 2005."

ya'all have a real nice time and all. Me and the lady are headin our on a jet aroplane tomorrow AM fer a vacation so ya'll wont be seein this ole coot for about a week unless theres a computer in that inn we got booked. So I will check in if I can but Im sure y'al; can make it here without.
No way, absolutely not wannabe. I have never met anyone that old act the way you do. You're still a teenager.
hurricane79 just copied and emailed my post to you.
True lefty, I see multiple possibilities for the GFS and others.... As being a Floridian, I am waiting for a certain sign of this system to be a definite no for us. I have not aeen it yet though....
willjax I guess you can join lefty in tha parade of fools than. Like I said I have to go so I will check in later as time permits and all. Ya'all be good here like I know ya will. Nite all.
G'night wannabe, have a good time on liberty. Regardless of your age.
79, I agree with the need for the northern shift. I don't know that the northern shift can prevent an eventual wesward path due to the building high to the northwest, but this just shoes the sitation is still very plastic.

Thanks, ST. for the email. Willjax, agreed on an eventual West movement, but big question of when and where it may begin
StSimonsIslandGAGuy,

It does seem like a connection to me. My theory is based on more of the net transfer of warm air to the poles, and vice-versa. The Earth wants to be in a homogenized(spl?) state, and a massive transfer of warm, moist air in hurricanes is going to result in the equal but opposite transfer of cold, dry air in air masses from the poles. It makes sense that there is global warming, the Earth is headed towards an Ice Age. We are helping it out, in my humble opinion, but that is neither here nor there. What will it do to oil and gas prices? Not much, unless some of the refineries in the Gulf don't come back online. Natural gas prices and electricity, on the other hand, will be expensive this winter if something like that comes to play. Just my thoughts...
79 navy site still has images from the goes 10 comming in. every 30 mins. so no real black out tonight
hey spirit, checl this out. u might like this. technicaly we are still in an ice age. since the poles are still frozen its technicaly still and ice age. lol just a lil trivia for you. now the heat up would melt the poles and al;low the earth to warm rather quickly, than the currents fail andf the temps at the poles plumment and that air and ice slides south until the atmosphere equalises again. but thats another day lol
The NHC is perhaps hinting of a change in the system's structure as of their 205 update:" CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 81W IS NOW JUST A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N81W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT"
wow no lomger a wave. thats different. they will move the center up north if the pressure keeps falling and the convection persists
so 79 what does that mean. are they hinting towards a td forming or what?
trong>WARNING BLOG ADDICTAVITUS:


1can be harmful to the person itsef

2may cause the inability to leave a blog for a short time

3may make you stay and keep saying goodbys and not leave for 15min

4may make you drowsey for staying on too long

5and last but not least you may devlope brain problems and use this in real life
LEFTYY THIS IS FOR YOU
cat1 in southwest gulf - late monday or early tuesday
Lefty. They are most likely hinting on there being no longer a wave... Also on just a low, that could redevelop anywhere that they stated as having strong convection in the region.
i get u 79, as if it was a wave the low would have to be centered on the axis of the wave. lol there so clever
I though he might be coming together just NW of Jamaica based on a hint of lower level convergence, in combination with the much tigher upper level divergence.

Say again, what does that statment by the NHC mean?
will they are gonna move the center of the low under the deep convection. or atleast hinting at that. but if its a wave the low has to be centered on the wave axis and its easier to just say the wave is no longer there
The deep convection just NW or Jamaica? So the "wave" status shall return shortly?

Why would not the axis be moved to the center of the low, the area of convergence that is clearly visible?

Hey ya'll I'm back... In honor of wunderground's most notable New Orleans forecaster I offer the following:

DOCTOPS TPC:
NON-URGENT MESSAGE:
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ISSUED FOR SE LA:
VALID: 2AM CDT THU SEPT 29 2005:

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY DOCTOPS TPC FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LA THROUGH THURSDAY SEPT 29 2005

TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGWANGGONERITA DEVELOPED JUST BELOW FLORIBAMA PREDAWN THIS MORNING ALONG A SURFACE TROF NEAR 29.5N 87.5W, APPARENTLY AFTER HAVING A TASTE OF ALL THAT DRY TOPOGRAPHY TO THE NORTH AND DESIRING A RETURN TO MORE MOIST CLIMES.

EXTREMELY NON-DANGEROUS TROP CYC LONGWANGGONERITA IS NOW BEARING DOWN ON LA COAST NEAR WHAT'S LEFT OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH AT A LEISURELY W DRIFT NEAR 3 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 10 MINUTES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO A HELLUVA LOT LESS THAN YOU'RE USE TO. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS SUCH AS PUTTING OUT LAWN CHAIRS, STOCKING UP ON ICE AND ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES IN ADVANCE OF THIS RARE STORM.

IN LIEU OF EVACUATIONS, LOUISIANA RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO POP A TOP WHILE HUNKERING DOWN FROM THE WEAKEST, MOST BENIGN SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION YOU ARE LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER IN THE NEXT 50 YEARS.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST AND FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGWANGGONERITA.
DOCTOPS TPC

.....hope this doesn't come back to haunt me. LOL
thats funny as hell doc.

will no. it wasn;t a step back. it was just preperation of them moving the low to the north. remebr it was a broad area of low presure cenetred on a wave axis. well the just reclassified it as a low pressure system and took out the wave wording so in the next disscussion if they need to they will likely move the low northward to where the convection is. she will likley be a td tomm when and if they send the recon. thats my take, but it was not a step back. that u need to understand
Indeed, that Longwang is looking pretty nice tonight. ;)

I suppose everyone else has gone to rest. So will I, and perhaps wake up tp TD19! Looking pretty good!
I understand that it's not a step back, but this thing, IMHO, still remains a tropical wave. It's strange they would "reclassify" it only for the purpose of changing its location.
cause technically its no longer a wave. a wave is an area of convergance, like a ripple. well now the convergance is the low. its now a wave no more. its orginised past that stage. thats the key
its been on the cusp of td status couple times and sice it has a low level circulation that wouldmake it a closed circulation and not a wave
Okay I see your point about the convergence now being in line with the low...in other words the axis shifted when the low began to deepen.

Indeed, it does look more organized than ever. I am wondering if we'll see the convection to his east get drawn into his circulation sometime tomorrow.

He is beginning to look familiar, if you know what I mean. What time do ya think? By 5pm?
Yeah...could'nt resist...still that little feature just adds an exclamation point on this wild season. On Stan-to-be, I feel it's gonna ignite tomorrow...think we have seen the last "center relocation cycle".
maybe will. we will see what happens, i think it is just a very complex siuation right now and anything is possible
Yah Doc, and look how far north that shift seems to be. Still, his strongest convection is still apprently a bit north of the low.
Yes, StanBlob has juked me out many times. That's why I love watching these systems form, it's defintely the most imformative part of the entire cycle.

Okay, to rest I go.
Later 79, Lefty, Doc.
man doc thats funny man too halarious man keep it up lol
Will, Lefty...on last avail. view, seems circ. center is still lower than plot. Also wondering did ya'll observe today a more westerly movement overall? Say, 280.
lol Doc. Anyone still up?
i am
sj i have no clue what this sytem is doing lol
Yea, the llc looks to be S, but the major convection looks to be N. Any chance we see a split?
Man, the GFS shows 15 making a landfall in Mexico. Have not seen one of those in a while.
no split just alot of convergence. think the low, the closed ull, and the upper level high have allowed there to be more convergence to the north than to the sout, i thought the llc was going to form north with that convection but its looks to be building convection to the south again as the convergence to the north relaxes. look to see some banding setting up and maybe she will finally get it togetehr
Guys, I apologise for being such a pitiful blogger...this damn dialup is slower than I am to reload. Haven't looked lately. Is projected center near about 17N 82W, cause thats how I saw it last.

I guess my main concern w/ Stan is the uncertainty in long range forecast of when the trof is expected across TX next Tue/Wed and with an eroding high, just where he might be located.
WHat the hell is the Canadian trying to do at 144. Seems none of the ooz models develop Stan. What gives?
sj they haven't had a hold on him and won't till he forms. garbage in garbage out
Them old foagies in the Supreme court just wanna check Anna out. You know they all saved that issue.lol

Not sure Doc. Still having a hard time figuring out if this thing will develop at all. Might hit land before any real devlopment? Who knows.
sj i think the closed ull will spawn a cyclone in those models. something like ophelia and rita and something joe b has been talking about for a couple of days. might see a east coast landfall
That fix looks close to me Doc, but it is very hard to tell.
ithink its 18.1n 80,3 w around there
All of the models build a serious high over the NE in to the SE late in the period. If something should devlop it would be hard to believe that anything but a E coast landfall would be the case.
wish i had visb sat. looks like it did reform north but not as far north as i thought. i put it wsw of jamaica
You using microwave for your fix Lefty?
Kinda what I was thinking Lefty. Not as far north as I thought either, but still north.
My bad Doc, I was looking at old Sat images. I agree more so with Lefty's fix. Looks to be above 17.5
no i am using ther nasa ir imagery and i am loking at the low clouds at the surface . theres a def circulation and it took me about 10 mins of looking to fix it. if i had visible satelite it be easier.

the gfs looks to form a system on the east coast as well but it rins into the ridge and doesn;t get going but it forms a very nice looking cape vered storm that will have to go west and will likley hit the east coast or move into the gulf
Fox just showed teh ARtic Ice cap in 79 and now. Holy mackeral. If the Gulf stream ever shuts down we are screwed. A frozen E coast.
lol
I thought that GFS Cape verde looked to get too far N out in the Atlantic.
SJ, I'm more confident tonite than last it'll ignite tomorrow and we'll have our TD19 but probably no sooner than 5pm advisory. Futher away from ULL the better...think might be last evening of shearing... after should see consistency w/ LLC. Still see general westward tug at this time.
i dfunno sj. i was looking at the experimental page and it only goes out 144 hr
Yea, looking at the Experimental page you would think it would be hard for that system to go W of that high. The Noaa page may have had a front break that ridge down. Don't want to try and reload it right now.
Man the BAMM has been real slow the past couple of nights. I geuss several systems ahead of Stan.
yeah i just spent the past 10 mins trying to find a good pic of rita to set as my background. no luck. so sticking with my awsomepic of isabel from 2003.
Alright I am headed to bed. Catch ya on the flip side.

Can't even geuss what Stan will look like tomorrow.
alright sj
Getting late for me guys...need rest so I can prepare for the wrath of TC LongwanggoneRita later this morning as it slams ashore. LOL. Might repost it for the morning crew...then again I could get an ass-whipping.

Goodnite friends.
Alright. REally off to bed, but Stan looks to be due W of Jamica.
Night Doc. That Longwanggonerita was funny as hell though.
Is there a Stan in the house? By the way things look this morning, the NHC will cancel another recon flight. That area of disturbed weather has not looked too good over the last couple of days. With no activity since Rita there are a few more weeks for the Gulf of Mexico to heat up to give us one last blow from the tropics.
Well since the tropics are tame more off topic questions

1. How do you think the winter in your hood is going to be?

2. Are you afriad that your job will not last the winter?

3. What kind of bread do you eat?

4. What is the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow?
Good morning Orion
1. Warm
2. no
3. whole wheat
4. What?
I guess I should answer my own questions

1. Cold and Harsh, even for a upstate NY winter. More so with natural gas prices sky high (up here we usually have a few people die every winter due to trying to save money or heat with kerosonse heaters indoors)

2. Yea my job ends Oct 31st (hopefully I will get another one before then)

3. What every is within reach and already open

4. What do you mean? An African or European swallow?
how have you been Orion?
palmbeacher,

Err I think my answer to question 2 would explain that
I know, I am sorry, check your email. Have you had any luck with your search?
What time does the recon fly out today?
Sorry Mandy, I have no idea.
palmbeacher,

No problem, its going fairly well had a interview (2nd of 3, ie they cull people at every phase:

1st interview was over the phone
2nd interview was with thier IT people and Account Managers
3th interview (which I have yet to have, but was told in the 2nd interview I was a very strong candiate for) will be with the owners )

I got a interview today with another company, and I should be hearing back from a few other companies in a few days.
Mandy,

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/statement.asp?product=NOUS42

Hurricane Recon Flight Plans
Thats good news. I am wishing you luck!
Thanks Orion!
Mandy,

No problem
1. cold, hopefully VERY snowy
2. its seasonal, so at least till January unless they really like me and someone else decides to leave
3. cinnamon raisin
4. is he gripping the coconut by the husk?
icebear7

To answer your number 4 question. No its unladened.

Also fall make its presence know with a big ole steel boot today. Winds up to 50mph, temp has dropped 10 degrees since daylight.. cold rain..
<>

Ooooh. Ice burn on me.

Why is a self-proclaimed college student typing like a drunk monkey? Beats me.
Oh my goodness, it's raining in Virginia...It's not much, my rain gauge hasn't even clicked yet, but I'll even take a drizzle at this point!
Of course from our radar image I'm figuring this isn't too much to get excited about...

Radar
Hello all.... =)
orion - we were up in the Adirondacks last weekend visiting family...I could see my breath when we were sitting around the campfire at night...already too cold for me up there!
HI Pensacola!!!! Good morning
hi folks... summer cold got me. or is it a fall cold now? :(
Hey Palbeach...

Masters has new blog..
cloudy here from throwback with that wave but not much else happening... nice to see thigns quiet for a few hours ::G::
new blog entry...
EllistonVA,

I make it to the Adirondacks one day, keep meaning too just never have the time, money or both.
I grew up in the Adirondacks and those beautiful mountains are one of the few things I miss about NY.