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Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters
Joplin Tornado Damage
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger....
And Bigger....
Here it is turning into a monster.

Tornado Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting pottery:

Thanks. What a relief!


Always here for ya Pot!
3502. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Ever hear of quicksand? grrrrrr

The annoying thing is, that the Sun has been happily shining for a couple of hours, and it looks to be a fair afternoon.
They could have done it today, no problem.
Moisture expanding West....

Quoting pottery:

It's 1013 and falling here.
Should I panic ?


DOOM!!!
3505. ackee
where do u think recon will find 94L centre ?



A SW
B NW
C west
D EAST
Quoting pottery:

The annoying thing is, that the Sun has been happily shining for a couple of hours, and it looks to be a fair afternoon.
They could have done it today, no problem.

It's always the way,,, Murphy's law. When they get there tomorrow, there will be a big black cloud just waiting to rain on you
A nice rain maker for Florida would be heaven sent. A few nice depressions park on over us please .Testing 1,2,3 testing 1,2,3 .
3508. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:


You mean, should you start drinking earlier today?
lol
no, you still have to do your projects today Potts.

Nope!
Taking a Sabbath Sabbatical today.
Well, except I HAVE to move some potted plants back to where they were before I moved them to where they are.
They are getting too much water...
3509. Sadek22
Gratulation. Fantastic :PFree counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!
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Quoting IKE:
I bet recon is canceled. Convection is close to 100 miles from the center.

I could be wrong about recon though.

ahh but yesterday it was 250 miles from the center and expanding away to the east. Since the convection has moved much closer to the center I think 94 is going to make it but we will see what the waves which pressure plots show is just east of it do.
The GFS has 94l sitting about where it is at 120 from now. Thats a long time for it to never develop.


3511. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's always the way,,, Murphy's law. When they get there tomorrow, there will be a big black cloud just waiting to rain on you

Precisely!
Quoting sailingallover:

ahh but yesterday it was 250 miles from the center and expanding away to the east. Since the convection has moved much closer to the center I think 94 is going to make it but we will see what the waves which pressure plots show is just east of it do.
The GFS has 94l sitting about where it is at 120 from now. Thats a long time for it to never develop.




Im just ready to break out the google earth tracking map for the first time this year.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Im just ready to break out the google earth tracking map for the first time this year.

Any Idea where its taking off from?
The pressure is 1010 closer to the convection, so I think recon will fly today. The center may be closer to the convection than they have thought. Have a good one ebody. I have to get my house cleaned up for the sitters who will visit today to check things out. They are staying here with my pets while I'm on vacation later this month and into July!
3515. Grothar


Quoting AussieStorm:

Any Idea where its taking off from?


None, sorry Aussie.
I think this is what is going on
("Good Morning and welcome to USAF RECON we are flying on a WC-130J HH our destination round trip to the lovely area of 94L which we will be reaching there at 1800Z we as all to keep your seat belts on because we may experience turbalance")or something of the sort LOL
3518. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

The annoying thing is, that the Sun has been happily shining for a couple of hours, and it looks to be a fair afternoon.
They could have done it today, no problem.


Life doesn't work that way, does it?
ithink the NHC is seriously thinking about cancelling this mission...
Quoting sailingallover:

ahh but yesterday it was 250 miles from the center and expanding away to the east. Since the convection has moved much closer to the center I think 94 is going to make it but we will see what the waves which pressure plots show is just east of it do.
The GFS has 94l sitting about where it is at 120 from now. Thats a long time for it to never develop.




agree sailing. especially when you consider the shear map.
The RGB loop of 94L shows the convection waning, I wouldn't be suprised to see a lot of it disappear within the next few hours. However, the gap in the clouds makes it pretty clear that the CoC is just under the convection on it's west side, so the system generally looks more organised.
3522. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think this is what is going on
("Good Morning and welcome to USAF RECON we are flying on a WC-130J HH our destination round trip to the lovely area of 94L which we will be reaching there at 1800Z we as all to keep your seat belts on because we may experience turbalance")or something of the sort LOL

I hope that is not what's happening.
Tur-balance can really make your head spin....
They planning to take off at 11?
StormPulse says the pressure is at 1007, but I'm not sure how reliable that is....

Ready for another drama filled, ignore-button pushing, troll cleansing season :-)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
They planning to take off at 11?
Supposedly took off 10 minutes ago.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Quoting pottery:

I hope that is not what's happening.
Tur-balance can really make your head spin....


yes it can I am even feeling it now I will be back in a minute I am going to eat my breakfast
Sorry about the double post. In the meantime let's look at this shrimp-look-a-like invest.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA

Excerpt:

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 16N79W
REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SW ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO GRADUALLY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
ENTERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT NW AND
GET ABSORBED INTO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting ackee:
where do u think recon will find 94L centre ?



A SW
B NW
C west
D EAST

Low Level Center is at 16.5N 78.5W just to the SE of the Convection..
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Supposedly took off 10 minutes ago.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Do Navy base runways have webcams?
902

URNT10 KNHC 041613

97779 15594 70302 89000 08700 04011 23664 /9880

49905

RMK AF308 WXWXA 110604141921308 OB 05
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Supposedly took off 10 minutes ago.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


ok that means we will be getting our first obs in about 10-20 minutes
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Supposedly took off 10 minutes ago.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


interesting, lets see what happens in the next 15 mins
Quoting ackee:
where do u think recon will find 94L centre ?



A SW
B NW
C west
D EAST


C, not far from convection.
3535. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Life doesn't work that way, does it?

Life, the Universe and Everything.
It's all a Cosmic Conspiracy directed at me personally.
I'm dealing with it.
Link
Quoting sailingallover:

Low Level Center is at 16.5N 78.5W just to the SE of the Convection..

Date:Jun. 5, 2011 12:00 Z (Sunday)
Coordinates:16.2N 79.3W
Pressure (MSLP):1007 mb (29.74 inHg | 1007 hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.):25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)
Location:207 statue miles (333 km) to the SW (233°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1010 mb. (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 250 nautical miles (288 miles | 463 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds:175 nautical miles (201 miles | 324 kilometers)
System Depth:Medium
3538. Sadek22
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Date:Jun. 5, 2011 12:00 Z (Sunday)
Coordinates:16.2N 79.3W
Pressure (MSLP):1007 mb (29.74 inHg | 1007 hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.):25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)
Location:207 statue miles (333 km) to the SW (233°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1010 mb. (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 250 nautical miles (288 miles | 463 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds:175 nautical miles (201 miles | 324 kilometers)
System Depth:Medium


is that HH?
Quoting blsealevel:
Link


That is from yesterday. Look at the date at the top,it says 4.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


is that HH?

Nope, that's info on 94L.
3543. pottery
Post 3536.
Now, THAT is an interesting graphic.
Who would have thought the heaviest stuff would be that far east? Not me!
Quoting Chicklit:


agree sailing. especially when you consider the shear map.

Ditto..it is stacking and that westerly shear is about gone
And the latest RGB is showing a nice upper level outflow into the NW quadrant developing along with a more solid inflow of SA hot moist air..
looking better and better
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


is that HH?


Decode of ATCF file
3546. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is from yesteday. Look at the date at the top,it says 4.

OH!!
No wonder....
DUHH ! to me.
IMHO, we can't tell what a storm is going to do. Let's reflect on Wilma. She was basically in the same position as invest 94L and sat there forever as a disturbance. Then poof, she blew up...and the rest is history.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/WILMA_graphi cs.shtml

I was a wunderground stalker back then, reading not posting, but everyone downcasted the system then.

Now, I don't believe in wishcasting either...but for people to talk about how this season is a bust etc. is just crazy. We may only get ONE storm, and that storm may be in September for all we know, but just ONE storm could be Katrina potential. Just saying :)

BTW - good morning everyone. I only stalk during hurricane season and it's nice to be back!
Quoting RainyEyes:
IMHO, we can't tell what a storm is going to do. Let's reflect on Wilma. She was basically in the same position as invest 94L and sat there forever as a disturbance. Then poof, she blew up...and the rest is history.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/WILMA_graphi cs.shtml

I was a wunderground stalker back then, reading not posting, but everyone downcasted the system then.

Now, I don't believe in wishcasting either...but for people to talk about how this season is a bust etc. is just crazy. We may only get ONE storm, and that storm may be in September for all we know, but just ONE storm could be Katrina potential. Just saying :)

BTW - good morning everyone. I only stalk during hurricane season and it's nice to be back!


I'm sorry, but this absolutely cannot be compared to Wilma in terms of atmospheric conditions. Completely different set-up, without the explosive potential Wilma had.
rainyeyes let me just say we are in early june not in the peak of the hurricane season like wilma was...no comparison here what so ever...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is from yesterday. Look at the date at the top,it says 4.


saw that after i posted sorry
Here's a before and after for ya'll, between last night and this morning:





I am surprised that the 8am TWO did not have an Air Force Reconaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, usually the NHC mentions that if they are sending recon. It was not there this morning.
thanks
I wasn't comparing the systems really - just saying how systems can look to be nothing then they can blow up, AND how some downcast systems that become Wilma. My comment was toward the general comment made earlier that this season is a bust :)
yea I am starting to think it was cancelled

and when their new plan of the day comes out shortly, it will indicate that they did

the only other thing that makes sense is that they are either having issues with the decoder or relaying information or that they just decided not to turn it on yet. We have seen that before too
Quoting SouthDadeFish:


I'm sorry, but this absolutely cannot be compared to Wilma in terms of atmospheric conditions. Completely different set-up, without the explosive potential Wilma had.


Once in a lifetime upper level set-up.
i agree there was nothing to go down there f=or at least not a closed circulation...its going to take some time before it gets together
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 05 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 06/1430Z
D. 17.0N 79.5W
E. 06/1745Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 07/0215Z
D. 17.5N 80.0W
E. 07/0500Z TO 07/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Do Navy base runways have webcams?

Such a thing could possibly pose national security issues. ;-)
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.
Its cancelled
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Here's a before and after for ya'll, between last night and this morning:






Please, don't use imageshack. It only has an image of a frog in an ice cube instead of the before and after.
Where would it go?? If 94L forms it's got nowhere to run for at least a few days except to drift around.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/06/fp0_144.shtml
A surface ridge forms over the GOM-Bermuda over the next 5 days although it has a small weakness over FL and the upper air shows a mid level ridge all along the north edge of the Caribbean until next week and shear to the west...
This is why the models have it looping around etc..boxed in to the W and NW right now and if it moves much out of it's nest in the SW caribe it going to get sheared.
144 hours it gets an opening to the NE.
yes like i said cancelled the flight...im not surprised at all..
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.
They are probably waiting to be sure the present trend continues.
Dam its the mission has be scraped
sorry guys but anyhow I think they should have
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.


Hmm, no recon til tomorrow afternoon at earliest then.
Well, since Recon has been canceled, i'm off to bed.
Good Night all.


Low is back.
3570. pottery
Cancelled.
Well, why not?
Looking at the thing, there is no apparent advantage to flying into it.
Jamaica must be producing some good surface obs, and aircraft in and out of Kingston too.
0-0-0
waiting for the season is a bust idiots to start comment now

Scrubbed. Oh well.

Nothing too impressive anyway.


Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Scrubbed. Oh well.

Nothing too impressive anyway.




it looks way better than it did last night
Quoting pottery:
Cancelled.
Well, why not?
Looking at the thing, there is no apparent advantage to flying into it.
Jamaica must be producing some good surface obs, and aircraft in and out of Kingston too.


Jamaica is too far away from the centre to produce many useful surface observations. But I agree that there's no point flying into it. It's improved, but it's still a long way from being a cyclone.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
waiting for the season is a bust idiots to start comment now



well we are on pace for 0 storms...
3577. Sadek22
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


it looks way better than it did last night


Right now it looks way worse than it did a few hours ago.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Low is back.


yes buy I think they put it too far to the West
It appears a TCFA has been issued for 94L.

Link
94L will not start getting its act together until late wednesday or thursday...then they will be cause for concern...
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Right now it looks way worse than it did a few hours ago.


Doesnt look all that much different to me

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.
CANCELED BY NHC...
CANCELED BY NHC....
CANCELED BY NHC.....
(continues repeating for 10 minutes)
*drools*
Man, we should get more data, if it wasn't for the cancellation.
Well then... Recon is Cancelled...
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it looks way better than it did last night


True, but there was pretty much nothing left to it.

Point is, this doesn't have the type of organization that you'd use a flight on.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


True, but there was pretty much nothing left to it.

Point is, this doesn't have the type of organization that you'd use a flight on.


I agree with that
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It appears a TCFA has been issued for 94L.

Link


There's no actual message. Just the ATCF guidance.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Date:Jun. 5, 2011 12:00 Z (Sunday)
Coordinates:16.2N 79.3W
Pressure (MSLP):1007 mb (29.74 inHg | 1007 hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.):25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)
Location:207 statue miles (333 km) to the SW (233°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1010 mb. (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 250 nautical miles (288 miles | 463 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds:175 nautical miles (201 miles | 324 kilometers)
System Depth:Medium

Nope that westerly coordinate is wrong..it's 78.5 I tell you!!!! Actually looking at the G in the RGB now that the lights better.......
i'm going with 16.7234N and 78.63921W
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Doesnt look all that much different to me



The convection ball has waned quite a bit. Seems to be flattening out a bit like it was yesterday.
3590. pottery
Quoting Hurricanes101:
waiting for the season is a bust idiots to start comment now


It's OK, I made that pre-emptive post at post 3465

EDITED post #
Maybe they are waiting for persistence before sending recon. out.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It appears a TCFA has been issued for 94L.

Link


That page just lists invests, and there's a link to the TCFA if there is one. That's why when you click 'TCFA message' it just reloads the page.
3593. emcf30


3594. pottery
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


The convection ball has waned quite a bit. Seems to be flattening out a bit like it was yesterday.

DMax had a good effect on it. DMin is coming and zapping it now.
It will probably flare again tonight, but not by so much.

See you all Later....
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


That page just lists invests, and there's a link to the TCFA if there is one. That's why when you click 'TCFA message' it just reloads the page.


Gotcha. Thanks Chaser(s).
Always disappointing to see a cancelled recon but its their call. Anyways, 94L still holding strong with convection on its Eastern front but is slacking on the western side of the circulation which is still broad and does not appear to be down to the surface. Though, development is looking more likely today than yesterday.
Don't forget about the tropical waves that could help this system.
well ill be back to give my opinion on monday evening..i dont things will change to much by then though..i know one thing for certain jamaica is in for lots of heavy rainfall...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It appears a TCFA has been issued for 94L.

Link
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


There's no actual message. Just the ATCF guidance.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


That page just lists invests, and there's a link to the TCFA if there is one. That's why when you click 'TCFA message' it just reloads the page.


#1 wrong
#2 correct
#3 wrong
#4 (myself) that that is the forecast models
I'm back. French open delay because of rain.

I wonder if it's the rain from Jamaica? (I'm not being serious!)

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


True, but there was pretty much nothing left to it.

Point is, this doesn't have the type of organization that you'd use a flight on.

I gotta disagree... while 94L is locked in place and the models don't do much with it the rate it stacking, the amount of energy it is all set to draw on from the Ocean and SA monsoon, the favorable upper level conditions and that fact recon flight are also research flights makes it worthwhile.
Also the pressure is dropping...
I'm not saying it will, but there is potential for 94L to blow up and take over. Maybe a 2% chance.
At this point good pressure data is KEY! and you can't get that without a flight.

Regardless
At a minimum it is going to bring TS conditions to the West/Central Caribe even if it never officially forms into a TS and 5 days is a long time to be dumped on for Jamaica and the Caymans.
3602. aquak9
ahh well. I was looking forward to all the maps of the hunters. All recon cancelled for today? Too bad...it woulda been a good run for all of us to follow the data.
Quoting kimoskee:
I'm back. French open delay because of rain.

I wonder if it's the rain from Jamaica? (I'm not being serious!)



its an amazing match
another thing on the 12Z surface map the Tropical Wave
in the caribbean is gone and go/getting absorbed into 94L
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It appears a TCFA has been issued for 94L.

Link
its only a POSS TCFA

if there is a TCFA it will show here right now nothing

Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Sun, Jun 05, 2011.

As of Sun, 05 Jun 2011 15:00:01 GMT
3606. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its only a POSS TCFA

if there is a TCFA it will show here right now nothing

Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Sun 05 Jun 2011 14:45:01Z


So what you are saying is, we have a pre-poss TCFA.
3607. scott39
94L has two things going for it, that it didnt have yesterday. The mid-level southwesterly shear is relaxing and the mid-levels are moistening up. I thought 94L was toast 24 hours ago! Looks like I was wrong. Its in better shape than 24 hours ago, but its still going to take at least until mid week to reach TD status. IMO
Quoting aquak9:
ahh well. I was looking forward to all the maps of the hunters. All recon cancelled for today? Too bad...it woulda been a good run for all of us to follow the data.
no recoons today maybe tommorow
look at 91e!!
3610. Sadek22
More detalis :PFree counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!
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Thanks Keeps.
AIRPORTS
RAINFALL : DEPARTURE : RAINFALL: DEPARTURE
OCT1-JUN2 OCT1-JUN2 JAN1-JUN2 JAN1-JUN2

PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL : 10.45 : -23.11 : 5.63 : -13.78
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 6.70 : -13.33 : 4.59 : -8.32
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 9.27 : -23.68 : 4.08 : -15.21
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 16.56 : -11.16 : 11.42 : -4.50


8 month rainfall totals, first number, are sickening. No rain in June would mean the -23.11 would go up to -31.31". That's a big deficit.
Quoting Grothar:


So what you are saying is, we have a pre-poss TCFA.
nothing in atlantic now thats been removed but poss TCFA has been issued for epac basin




maybe thats why information is getting cross
water on the east coast is warmer very fast!! look how far north the warm water is getting its only june!!! i do not like this at all!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nothing in atlantic now thats been removed but poss TCFA has been issued for epac basin




maybe thats why information is getting cross


the information has been screwy with 94L for days

gets better organized, models drop it

looks dead and the models pick it up, goes up to the 30% and they show that graphic

now its back looking better and they drop that?


I am not trusting anything at this point
its orange again bit of an upgrade
91E has been dealing with some dry air, and also has about 10 to 15 knots of shear on it's east side, although it does look pretty decent, and might have a chance.
Good morning all. Did anybody check to see if RandyB is flying today?
xx/INV/94L
MARK
16.79N/77.23W
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nothing in atlantic now thats been removed but poss TCFA has been issued for epac basin




maybe thats why information is getting cross
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_la testBW.gif


That one was old. Here is the latest one.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning all. Did anybody check to see if RandyB is flying today?
missions for today cancelled
3623. Grothar
I still think there will be a considerable burst of convection to the immediate SE of Jamaica. The high cirrus clouds at the periphery of the system is showing good outflow. Should be an interesting watch the next few hours. I got to go, but let me know what happens.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
ok so now its back up on the graphic somebody make up there mind will they
From what I've heard, the powers that be are just being careful about money. They don't want to find themselves standing in D.C. in front of a roomful of grandstanding Congress members six months from now explaining why they "wasted taxpayer dollars sending an airplane full of government employees on a sightseeing flight all over the Caribbean to look at a bunch of harmless little clouds".

Welcome to the New American Age of austerity-as-theater. :-\
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok so now its back up on the graphic somebody make up there mind will they
:) The one you posted was 0900 and the one I posted is 1500.
Good morning. 94L looks good-ish.
3628. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok so now its back up on the graphic somebody make up there mind will they


Calm down and stop drinking that coffee. You know that when they post new information, they drop the old info sometimes. The CIMSS is famous for that and so is the Navy site.
Don't know if this has been posted, but the Recon missions that were scheduled for this afternoon and tonight have been canceled by the NHC:

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.
The models range from 94L making landfall in Belize to crossing extreme eastern Cuba and racing northeast. Talk about uncertainty.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look at 91e!!
Thanks for the imagery, jason. One thing: the fact that this system seems to be developing per schedule seems to suggest that we will see eventually SOMEthing from 94L...
3632. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:


Calm down and stop drinking that coffee. You know that when they post new information, they drop the old info sometimes. The CIMSS is famous for that and so is the Navy site.


Coffee has seemed to be taking it the chin today..LOL
Its going to be a long week watching this mess in the Caribbean
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Don't know if this has been posted, but the Recon missions that were scheduled for this afternoon and tonight have been canceled by the NHC:

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.


I think they may be waiting for some persistence from 94L before sending a flight out there.
3634. IKE
Another flight bites the dust.....0-0-0.


3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
xx/INV/94L
MARK
16.79N/77.23W


Are those outflow boundaries? Some of the experienced members here said those would cause 93L's convection to dissipate afterward and they were right. Is this the same thing?
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Are those outflow boundaries? Some of the experienced members here said those would cause 93L's convection to dissipate afterward and they were right. Is this the same thing?


No, you may be looking at the cirrus outflow.
I knew this was gonna happen with some of the bloggers.I can't stress enough that these types of systems take days to develope.Remember Alex?.And their was a few other storms.
lol, meanwhile more $ is spent on just interest on debt to foreign central banks in a millisecond than probably all hurricane hunter flights that have ever been taken since their inception, not even a drop in the bucket.
Quoting Grothar:


Calm down and stop drinking that coffee. You know that when they post new information, they drop the old info sometimes. The CIMSS is famous for that and so is the Navy site.
how did you know i was drinking a coffee timmys too mmmm

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Are those outflow boundaries? Some of the experienced members here said those would cause 93L's convection to dissipate afterward and they were right. Is this the same thing?


looks more like the good kind of outflow for a storm
Quoting AllStar17:


No, you may be looking at the cirrus outflow.

Kind of a dumb question, but is that good or bad for 94L?
3642. Patrap
To whomever left the case of Fresca on my porch overnight along with a Cane Tracking Map.


A hearty TYVM.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Kind of a dumb question, but is that good or bad for 94L?


Good. It acts as a "ventilation" system for the thunderstorms.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
missions for today cancelled
Great. :o(

I think I will check Randy's blog anyway to see if he's posted anything about 94L and anything else interesting....

Meanwhile, I hate to admit it, but watching 94L get its act together is strangely like watching paint dry....
3646. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:


Coffee has seemed to be taking it the chin today..LOL
Its going to be a long week watching this mess in the Caribbean


We have to watch something.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks more like the good kind of outflow for a storm


Well how do you tell the difference between "good" or "bad" cirrus outflow then lol. It looks exactly the same as when 93L started spitting out rings of cirrus clouds around it once it got off of Florida.
Quoting AllStar17:


Good. It acts as a "ventilation" system for the thunderstorms.

Thanks. I'm not really smart at these things, even if I'm a Weather Nerd.
U guys realize that 91E is at 40%??? Can't say I'm surprised. The imagery jason posted looks pretty good....
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well how do you tell the difference between "good" or "bad" cirrus outflow then lol. It looks exactly the same as when 93L started spitting out rings of cirrus clouds around it once it got off of Florida.


the difference is that the cirrus outflow looks more like a fanning out of clouds

an outflow boundary is more straightline
Quoting Hurricanes101:


the difference is that the cirrus outflow looks more like a fanning out of clouds

an outflow boundary is more straightline


Ah, now that I think about it I don't think 93L spat out rings, but a line of cirrus to the west. That would explain it. Thanks.
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.55N/101.2W


Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Thanks. I'm not really smart at these things, even if I'm a Weather Nerd.


Lol....

Is it an illusion or is there a spin in the thunderstorms?
Link
and outflow boundaries are lower level typically: you'll see them as a line of expanding cumulus. If you see that "feathering" that you are seeing now? That's good for it. In my opinion, 94L looks as good as it ever has, thought the LLC is just barely under the westernmost convection. If that outflow continues, expect alot of convection to fire further west very soon.
3657. IKE
GFS 12Z @ hour 126....


The outflow channels are really becoming impressive.

The whole western quadrant around to the northeast has a great outflow. Looks like banding on the surface too on the south side on the visible.
starting to look overcast and breezy here in Grand Cayman
Remember guys.Storms don't form when we won't them to.They will form when nature allows them to.Keep that in mind.
XX/INV/94L
MARK
16.79N/77.23W
3662. IKE

Quoting AllStar17:
Is it an illusion or is there a spin in the thunderstorms?
Link
I see a spin too. I was just fixing to comment.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Are those outflow boundaries? Some of the experienced members here said those would cause 93L's convection to dissipate afterward and they were right. Is this the same thing?
Not in this case. Lower-level outflow is the result of the divergence, or separation, of air within a downdraft when it crashes at the surface. Upper-level (cirrus) outflow has a wispy appearance to it as compared to lower-level outflow that looks like a boundary. Upper-level outflow is the result of air that has released its moisture, and is commonly referred to as the 'exhaust' of a tropical system.

Lower-level outflow is not cirrus outflow, because cirrus clouds are located in the upper-levels.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Remember guys.Storms don't form when we won't them to.They will form when nature allows them to.Keep that in mind.


Buzzkill!!
Quoting SouthALWX:
and outflow boundaries are lower level typically: you'll see them as a line of expanding cumulus. If you see that "feathering" that you are seeing now? That's good for it. In my opinion, 94L looks as good as it ever has, thought the LLC is just barely under the westernmost convection. If that outflow continues, expect alot of convection to fire further west very soon.


Looks to be tightening up. There is definite convergence of stronger winds today.
3666. Grothar
Quoting IKE:

I see a spin too. I was just fixing to comment.


Isn't that afixing?
Quoting IKE:

I see a spin too. I was just fixing to comment.


So there's 2 people who see it. I also see some inflow but I could be wrong.
3668. Patrap
Cross Section of a Mature Hurricane



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/INV/94L
MARK
16.79N/77.23W
It looks like a blowup of bread in the oven.Okay lets keep the jokes aside for now.
yes, I see the spinning as well. As I commented above, looks like the LLC is just barely tucked into the westernmost convection.
ike i think you been hitting the go go juice to much..
3672. emcf30
Quoting AllStar17:
Is it an illusion or is there a spin in the thunderstorms?
Link


I would have to agree with you. Earlier this morning the swirl was West of the convection. Now it has thunderstorms starting to wrap in from the NNE. Something to keep a eye on.
3673. FLdewey
Dun duh DUNNNNNN....
3674. Sadek22
I like it :PFree counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!
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Quoting SouthALWX:
yes, I see the spinning as well. As I commented above, looks like the LLC is just barely tucked into the westernmost convection.
Their is a possibility that another low could form under that convection.Just say'in....it IS a possibility.
it's either fixin' or afixin'...no 'g'
Looks like the LLC is just south of west Jamaica not far from the new blowup of convection.

Nice outflow. Nice convergence. Minimal shear. High pressure aloft close to overhead. Dry air being replaced by more moist air from 3 quadrants....Geez what more do you want....lol
3678. Grothar
Quoting IKE:

I see a spin too. I was just fixing to comment.


If there is a spin, that would indicate that the main ball of convection we now see will start to split apart. As energy starts pulling in one direction, it removes the energy on the weakest part. I would not be surprise to see two separate areas starting. However, I still maintain that the main burst will occur to the immediate SE of Jamaica.
3679. aquak9
Quoting FLdewey:
Dun duh DUNNNNNN....


why can't we just have a normal day, huh??
3680. Patrap
3681. FLdewey
Quoting aquak9:


why can't we just have a normal day, huh??

As Ralph Wiggum would say... it's unpossible.
Too bad there isn't any Hurricane Hunter data to give us the real story.
well, I don't think a new LLC makes sense here. The current one, wherever it actually is ( I think on the western edge of convection) , will be dominant as you can see the curvature of the low clouds indicating that the current LLC has significantly lower pressures than anywhere else. Low cumulus on visible is really giving us a good look at this, especially on the SW quadrant.
Quoting AllStar17:
Is it an illusion or is there a spin in the thunderstorms?
Link
There is definite spin! This thing 'wants' to get its act together. Reminds me of how Hurr. Katrina first formed.
3687. emcf30
Quoting Abacosurf:
Looks like the LLC is just south of west Jamaica not far from the new blowup of convection.

Nice outflow. Nice convergence. Minimal shear. High pressure aloft close to overhead. Dry air being replaced by more moist air from 3 quadrants....Geez what more do you want....lol


Yep, once the low gets totally under the high,the thunderstorms will become more symmetrical around the low. We should then see a TD form. We will have a couple of days before the mid level shear starts to pick up.
3688. scott39
For now I see a whop-sided Invest! 94L needs more time to Bake.
3689. FLdewey
It's starting to take on the general shape of a tropical system... cue the experts.
Quoting Grothar:


If there is a spin, that would indicate that the main ball of convection we now see will start to split apart. As energy starts pulling in one direction, it removes the energy on the weakest part. I would not be surprise to see two separate areas starting. However, I still maintain that the main burst will occur to the immediate SE of Jamaica.


Gro, it looks like your right, see post 3680, I looked at the animation and it looks like an overshooting top, but it is growing in aerial coverage. Is that the burst you were talking about?
FM
Quoting presslord:
it's either fixin' or afixin'...no 'g'


I think this new Ike is an impostor. A yankee transplant to the South. ;)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

94L is looking great!
3693. FLdewey
*facepalm* for the Katrina reference.

I think I'll go do some yardwork... das blog should be a zoo tonight. I'll bring the popcorn - Aqua you bring the drinks.
3694. IKE

Quoting Grothar:


Isn't that afixing?
lol
Quoting scott39:
For now I see a whop-sided Invest! 94L needs more time to Bake.


There's a joke in there somewhere.......
3696. aquak9
Quoting AllStar17:
Too bad there isn't any Hurricane Hunter data to give us the real story.

+1000!!
That spin that we see within the convective mass appears to be in the mid-levels. The lower-level cloud deck is rotating further west. Notice on visible how there is no outflow going into the convective mass from the west to east.
most interesting to me, will be what happens when the wave south of Hispaniola crashes in.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis-s.ht ml
Quoting emcf30:


Yep, once the low gets totally under the high,the thunderstorms will become more symmetrical around the low. We should then see a TD form. We will have a couple of days before the mid level shear starts to pick up.


40-50% at the Next TWO
Quoting presslord:
it's either fixin' or afixin'...no 'g'
Also depends what part of Florida. The further south geographically the more northern phonetically. East-west matters too. Probably ought to refer to the area as "The Floridas"
Quoting PcolaDan:


I think this new Ike is an impostor. A yankee transplant to the South. ;)
:) I was beginning to think I was on the wrong blog.
3702. scott39
Quoting PcolaDan:


There's a joke in there somewhere.......
HeHe
Quoting FLdewey:
*facepalm* for the Katrina reference.

I think I'll go do some yardwork... das blog should be a zoo tonight. I'll bring the popcorn - Aqua you bring the drinks.


What should i Bring?
I think the LLC is at 17N/79W, clear spin on visible
3706. Grothar
Quoting fmhurricane2009:


Gro, it looks like your right, see post 3680, I looked at the animation and it looks like an overshooting top, but it is growing in aerial coverage. Is that the burst you were talking about?
FM


Yes, it is. At least someone is taking me seriously on the weather instead of just laughing at my jokes. Thanks fm. LOL The main convectin will HAVE to occur to the SE of Jamaica, especially if the cirrus outflow is as strong as it appears. A circulation may be trying to form, but it appears to be very mid-level and not a surface low at this time.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Also depends what part of Florida. The further south geographically the more northern phonetically. East-west matters too. Probably ought to refer to the area as "The Floridas"


And in S Fla the abbreviated version "finna", is used more often.
Quoting scott39:
For now I see a whop-sided Invest! 94L needs more time to Bake.
Was that a reference to my comment on "It looks like a big blowup of bread"
NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, it is. At least someone is taking me seriously on the weather instead of just laughing at my jokes. Thanks fm. LOL The main convectin will HAVE to occur to the SE of Jamaica, especially if the cirrus outflow is as strong as it appears. A circulation may be trying to form, but it appears to be very mid-level and not a surface low at this time.



Yes, but continued thunderstorm activity could bring it to the surface.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, it is. At least someone is taking me seriously on the weather instead of just laughing at my jokes. Thanks fm. LOL The main convectin will HAVE to occur to the SE of Jamaica, especially if the cirrus outflow is as strong as it appears. A circulation may be trying to form, but it appears to be very mid-level and not a surface low at this time.


FINE!!!!! Be that way. We won't laugh at your jokes any more.

;)
Any visible turning is in the mid-levels.

78.2W 17.5N would be my guess. Still a bit broad.
Quoting Abacosurf:
Looks like the LLC is just south of west Jamaica not far from the new blowup of convection.

Nice outflow. Nice convergence. Minimal shear. High pressure aloft close to overhead. Dry air being replaced by more moist air from 3 quadrants....Geez what more do you want....lol
Rain???
Quoting sammywammybamy:
NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I knew this was gonna happen with some of the bloggers.I can't stress enough that these types of systems take days to develope.Remember Alex?.And their was a few other storms.


Wasn't Dolly also like that?
3718. Sadek22
More detalis I want :PFree counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!
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3719. IKE
"""SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY BECOME SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT.."""......

Good luck 94L....bring us some rain.
COC 17N 77W?
LinkLoop

good evening all
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice pic circulation seen nicely ssw of west jamaica looks like a little dry air on west side? and t storms on 3 sides
3723. Patrap
skyepony,

NEXSAT Night IR
That guy on the news wanted to stay behind on that island in the outer banks of N Carolina cannot be wright in head.Look i can understand wanting to protect your property but that island may not even be there after Irene gets through there.Dam ill even apply for a working visa to the states hop on a plane get the scematics to the house and volunteeer to help rebuild it for free, but at least he would still be alive to fight another day geez. Sigh i don't understand some people.