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Caribbean disturbance grows disorganized; Super Typhoon Cimaron batters the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:23 AM GMT on October 30, 2006

A tropical wave (93L) moving through the Caribbean south of Jamaica has grown less organized today, despite having only 10 knots of wind shear over it. Wind shear is forecast to remain below 15 knots over the Caribbean over the next two days, which may allow some slow development of the system. However, none of the models are developing the system, and I am not expecting it to become a tropical depression. 93L will bring heavy rains and flooding to Jamaica and Cuba over the next day. These rains should spread into the Bahamas on Monday.

Figure 1.Preliminary model tracks for tropical disturbance 93L.

Philippines hammered by Super Typhoon Cimaron
Super Typhoon Cimaron made landfall on the northern Philippine island of Luzon this weekend as a Category 5 storm with winds of at least 160 mph. There is no word yet on damage from the storm, and I'll have much more on this extraordinary typhoon in my blog Monday morning.

Figure 2.Super Typhoon Cimaron a few hours before landfall in the Philippines. Cimaron may have had sustained winds as high as 180-195 mph at landfall! Image credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great entry Masters!
erm 2
You would think if you saw the satellite image of it making landfall, easily 180mph+!
That's right Teddy, but I've gotta get back to making my new blog entry!
How many Category 4+ landfalls is that this year in that Basin??????

This is Rediculas!!!! it's like the Atlantic Season of 2005 for them....that's ElNino for ya
It's 9 Category 4's and 5 of those are Category 5's!!!!
WHAT, all you guys were lurkin there while I was waffling on about dust??????? I'll be dammed.......
Hey maybe there was no dust in the Pacific.

OK< OK< I'll give it a break..
what a fabulous photo though. would hate to be anywhere near that.
a new report on the cost of climate change is available at bbc.news. co. uk READ IT..................
sorry, that should be news.bbc.co.uk
Hey everybody I've got a really great blog entry coming up, stick around!
Hey, pottery,

I stepped out for a few. Had some business to take care of . . .

If the dust was the only influence, and this represents a change in climatology affected by man-made changes in the land, I might be able to see your point about the dust lasting.

On the ULLs, I think the ULLs are a cut-off feature, aren't they? They spin off of the eastward-bound troughs and drift, mainly in the mid lats, until they dissapate or are absorbed, if I remember correctly. I'd say there aren't many ULLs below say, 15 or 20 N because most troughs don't reach down that far.

Thinking back, I think the ULL features had as much to do with keeping storm formation in the ATL to a minimum this year as the dust did. Certainly storms like Katrina and Rita didn't have the ULL problem last year . . .
I need that Cimaron pic for my "files" . . . .
hi baha. true, true. I see your point. But all through this season there were remarks from the forecasters, and dr. M. too, to the tune of " a deep cloud of sahara dust is discouraging organisation at this time" or words to that effect, refering to otherwise active tropical waves coming off Africa. My point is that there were plenty of waves, they failed to produce deep precipitation because the air was so dry. And it was dry air from the sahara.
ah well, its time to sleep. have a good night
Another pic of Cimaron about 5:00 UTC yesterday

See u later, pottery.

Gusts prolly were over 200 . . ..
93L is gone from the navy site.
cyclone, u got a link to that formula?
93L is maybe going to be gone from sat imagery by tomorrow, too. I think that cold front Xed it . . .
thanks a lot
Hmmm. . . .

93L may be gone, but I think kman was right earlier to be watching that whole frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Hondurus. Seems like 93 is getting absorbed by it according to this loop, but the activity level all along the front is high. Plus it seems like the main part of the front is swiftly lifting out to the north and east, leaving this remnant that is interacting with the T low. I'll be very interested to see what has happened by about 4 or 5 tomorrow morning. . .
ABNT20 KNHC 300307
1030 PM EST SUN OCT 29 2006





Hmmm. . .

Take a look at this current analyis of the tropics. . .
37. KRL
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 10:07 PM EST on October 29, 2006.
I would say about 230 mph gusts when adding the forward speed of the storm!Possibly 250 mph gusts!! We will know more tomorrow!!!

That's equivalent to an F4 Tornado. Hardly anything can survive that velocity of wind and the resulting impacting debris field, and I'd imagine in that part of the Philippines which is largely rice farms, the construction isn't too great.

Storm surge would have probably reached about 30 to 35 ft at that force range.

They've been hit really hard this year. I think this storm makes the tally at number 9 for them.
The Philippines get hit more than almost anywhere else in the world... I hope the death toll isn't too high with Cimaron.
This typhoon last night was a sight to be hold and brought back memories of ZEB which was another very powerful system that struck that area. Dvorak measurement last night was measureing a pressure of 879 mb with cimaron.We will know more in the coming days as more info comes in on the true intensity of cimaron.
University of Hawaii Researchers Predict Strong El Nino Based on Conditions in Indian Ocean HONOLULU, Oct. 24 (AScribe Newswire) -- An El Nino has been developing in the equatorial Pacific since early summer and will likely grow in strength over the next two months, according to the latest calculations of two researchers at the University of Hawaii at Manoa's climate center, the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC). Shang-Ping Xie, professor of meteorology, and H. Annamalai, an atmospheric scientist, base their prediction on something far away in the tropical Indian Ocean.

El Nino, the recurring climate phenomenon with unusual warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, causes abnormal weather conditions around the globe. While it has been the "poster boy" of climate variability over the past 20-30 years, scientists mostly ignored the Indian Ocean thinking it showed too little variation to excite any interest.

This all changed in fall 1997 when scientists were stunned by rapid cooling of the normally warm Indian Ocean off Sumatra Island. This cooling of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean caught the curiosity of the climate community and drew many to study the Indian Ocean. They traced the unusual Indian Ocean cooling, dubbed Indian Ocean Dipole, to the big El Nino that was happening at the same time in the Pacific in 1997.

The IPRC team, headed by Annamalai, went further in their research. In a study published last year in Journal of Climate, they looked into how such cooling in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean might impact El Nino and found that this unusual cooling weakens atmospheric convection over the region. This, in turn, sends atmospheric waves, called Kelvin waves, along the equator to the Pacific, and these waves cause anomalous westerly winds. It has been known for some time that such westerly wind anomalies are associated with a growing El Nino.

"Last month, we were alerted by colleagues in Japan of an imminent cooling in the eastern Indian Ocean," Xie says. "We decided to gather more data on the past 35 years and found that when an El Nino was accompanied by an Indian Ocean cooling, there was a good chance that it would grow greatly in strength in the fall. For instance, the two super El Ninos in 1982-83 and 1997-98 were both accompanied by unusual cooling in the eastern Indian Ocean. We suggest that it was these Indian Ocean conditions that powered the disturbances into the 'El Ninos of the century.' Since 1997, there have been El Nino events in 2002 and 2004. Both were mediocre in strength, we believe, because they didn't have the push for growth from the Indian Ocean."

El Nino prediction is being routinely carried out at weather agencies around the globe, but intensity forecasts are generally poor. In fact, both the 1982 and 1997 super El Ninos caught scientists by surprise as they were unfolding.

"This could be because many prediction models did not include the Indian Ocean or treated it inadequately," Annamalai suggests. "We hope our results will help improve the accuracy of El Nino prediction. The ongoing El Nino is putting our hypothesis to the test."

El Nino brings about abnormal weather conditions around the globe, including flooding in Ecuador and Peru, and drought in Indonesia and Australia. For example, the widely televised drought in Indonesia in fall 1997 was particularly severe as the region was hit by both a mega El Nino and cooling in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean.

El Nino conditions also tend to trigger more tropical cyclones in the central Pacific, while hurricane activity in the Atlantic tends to be quieter, as in this year. Winter precipitation increases over parts of California and the southern United States. In China, there tends to be more flooding in the summer following an El Nino. For example, one of the worst floods in the Yangtze River basin was recorded in 1998.

In Hawaii, El Nino tends to be associated with dry and less stormy winter and spring seasons, which is a nice break from the extremely wet and thunderstorm-ridden spring experienced this past year. However, it could also result in an unwelcome drought.

"All the abnormal weather conditions during an El Nino are usually more severe if the El Nino is strong. Predicting the intensity of El Nino several months ahead is, therefore, crucial," says Xie.

Well I've had distractions all week keeping me from updating my blog. Now my blog is finally ready and I think it's one of my best postings yet, enjoy!

Good Morning.
Wow! What a way to start off the morning and week! We just had a heavy downpour here, and NOW the temps feel like a cold front has passed through. I'm looking at the NASA viewer, and not really seeing what caused the sudden torrent. However, our weather guy last night did say they expected to front to retrograde, sort of like the Perfect Storm. But I don't think anyone expected rain this far north this early. Also, notice the sudden burst of clouds NE of the Bahamas, as predicted. I dunno about anything turning, though. Seems like the tropical low running into the non-tropical front to me . . .
Morning everyone.
Hi good morning everyone:)
Link 80 knots of shear by FL
Yeah, anything getting close to FL will get ripped apart.
Im up already..LOL.Wheres the coffee?
Wheres the Corn Candy?
Posted By: KRL at 9:48 PM CST on October 29, 2006.

Posted By: cyclonebuster at 10:07 PM EST on October 29, 2006.
I would say about 230 mph gusts when adding the forward speed of the storm!Possibly 250 mph gusts!! We will know more tomorrow!!!

That's equivalent to an F4 Tornado. Hardly anything can survive that velocity of wind and the resulting impacting debris field, and I'd imagine in that part of the Philippines which is largely rice farms, the construction isn't too great.

Actually, F5 tornado (virtually all Cat 5s have F5 tornado force winds - according to the new scale - F5 is wind gusts over 200 mph). The original Fujita Scale overestimated winds in tornadoes; the reduction is possibly due to the incredible damage Andrew caused with its 200+ mph gusts (just my opinion).
Highest winds recorded..3rd rock out..312mph...F5 Tornado....
Live video..Port Terminal New Orleans..nice fall cool.morningLink
The latest on Cimarons deaths in the Phillippines.
Thanks for the report Skye...
I wonder where the article got the windspeed from? 175 kilometers per hour is only about 110 mph, far less that what it was rated at.
The only other storm that compares (in terms of satellite readings) is Monica, which had 185 mph winds and 225 mph gusts.
Screw the winds..lets worry about the people...Worry about WHERE its going next..as THAT is the forcasting delimma.
My Streets pic on my Blog..14 mths post Katrina..yesterday
For those who have the TIME and would like to do something to Help here in New orleans and the surrounding areas in the rebuilding efforts..I can House & feed ..4-6 ..here thru Thanksgiving....Contact me via..WU mail.
Theres also a link on my Blog for a worthwhile group thats still rebuilding their Humble Homes.There are still many needs here.
Latest El Nino update:

SST anomalies:

No mail yet..go figure..LOL....Nice maps though
St Louis easy trip downriver..Come see some real Damage ..if ya like..Micheal.Ive got plenty of room & 2 puters.
You may never get the chance to see a 30 ft storm surge tour...Miss only 50 mins away.
Yeah I wondered about the #s in that article, this looked like error too~
It was forecast to exit the region in the direction of Vietnam later today. Winds hd dropped to 120 kph, with guts up to 50 kph, by midday
So the winds were near twice as much as the gusts, if guts mean gusts. It was from the Times of India. Posted it for the human, damage aspect.

El Nino strengthend in all 4 regions this week. If this keeps up it could make for an interesting winter of severe storms here.