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Caribbean disturbance develops a spin

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2005

The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamiaca, is still small and has limited deep convection, but now has a well-defined circulation visible on satellite imagery. Winds measured at NOAA buoy 42058 located at 15N 85W also showed this circulation, as the winds at the buoy switched from east to west this morning when the disturbance passed by. Surface pressures did not falling significantly at the buoy when the disturbance passed by, so this is still a very weak low pressure area. Wind shear over the disturbance has fallen to the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. An upper-level anti-cyclone appears to be developing on top of the disturbance, which should greatly aid the upper-level outflow needed to take away all the air lifted to the upper atmosphere by the deep convection near the storm's center.

The disturbance has slowed its forward motion to about 10 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down even further over the next three days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday, and favor development. The reconnaissance airplane scheduled to visit the area today was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for Wednesday.

The upper-level wind shear is forecast to relax further during the next two days, and I expect this system to become Tropical Depression 19 on Wednesday--Thursday at the latest. The global computer models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, and are not much help in forecasting what will happen. The latest 12Z (8am EDT) run of the GFS model predicts that the system will move to a point just south of the western tip of Cuba on Friday, but dissipates the system after that.


Figure 1. Early run of the BAMM model takes the Caribbean disturbance into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Africa westward
The ITCZ is active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. Some of the global computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm will develop along this area later this week. There are currently no suspect areas to focus on, though.

Gulf of Mexico
A cluster of thunderstorms associated with the tail end of the cold front that pulled Rita northeast across the U.S. is over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper levels winds are producing 30 knots of shear over this region and should prevent any development.

Alaska and Hawaii
We don't talk much about these states in my tropical blog, but Nome, Alaska had a huge mid-latitude cyclone hit them Friday. The storm brought sustained tropical storm force winds gusting to 52 mph, a 10-foot storm surge, and a pressure of 972 mb! This was in essence a Category 1 hurricane, as far as the storm surge and pressure go. Thanks to wunderphotographer Destiny, who brought this newspaper article to my attention.

Hawaii has its second tropical system of the season to be concerned with. Hawaii dodged major Hurricane Jova last week, andTropical Storm Kenneth is expected to pass within 100 miles of the Islands by the end of the week. Kenneth should only be a tropical depression by then, and bring a few extra rain showers to the islands.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'll repost this on the new blog...from todays 2:05 EDT Atlantic tropical waether discussion...."Special feature...
Central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75w/76w S of Cuba with
a 1010 mb low along the wave near 14n. Observations from buoy
42058 suggest there is a weak low associated with the wave with
wly winds recently reported...though those winds are likely
enhanced by downdrafts and outflow boundaries. Visible
satellite pictures show banding features developing on the N
side of the wave with symmetric outflow. This area has the
potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next 36
hours. A slow movement to the WNW is likely... placing the
system in the W Caribbean late Wed/early Thu."

Can you say Stan?
Dr Masters: I guess it is a bit early, but what does your gut tell you on whether the potential 'stan' will be forced west into the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche or will he head more towards the north into the central gulf and possibly the US?
maybe again a mitch?
Dr. Master, what do you think about the anticyclone that has formerd over the Blob? It look slike upper level divergence has greatly increased in the past hours. Will this help to decrease the surface level pressure if this continues?
How do we email Dr. Masters?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastwv.html

nice satelite pic.

also you see the what is left of rita, It seems to me that ii is being sucked into the ull just above cuba. What does that mean? Can that developed into anything?
and which way would it, could it go. Put
if it hits the waters right off the coast of Honduras, the potential exists of rapid intesification. that seems to be a favorite place for tropical development in the month of Oct. Waters are extremely warm, another possible reason that Mitch stalled. It's goin' to get active in the next few days in the Atlantic.
I just wonder if any shortwave troughs are going to dig down into the western Gulf and shove it northward as it develops into a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. Definitely a potential...let's all keep our eyes on this one.
Does anyone have the link to the GFS that shows a high pressure parking over SE US?
11. IKE
Looking at a visible satellite...looks like a low over southeast Alabama, southwest Ga, Florida panhandle..Wonder if that goes west or southwest and forces Stan to the north.
Little Stan has a plan
To hold together if he can
He wants to be 19 for us
But he needs some stronger gusts!
Yet the wind, it interferes
It tells Stan where to steer
But he says no, he's gonna slow...
No wind's gonna tell him where to go
So maybe by the end of tonight,
Stans plan will work out right.
that is good stormydee. Put.
cute Strmy
You all are referring to it as Stan. Has that been announced yet or is this just a feeling that it will erupt into the next storm?
21 - Where it says at the top Posted by Jeff Masters, click his name, then u should be able to email him. :-)
Tally, we've been calling them blobbies, but it got confusing with so many blobs out there, so we just started calling this blobby by his future name, Stan. Lol :-)

Dr Masters: I guess it is a bit early, but what does your gut tell you on whether the potential 'stan' will be forced west into the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche or will he head more towards the north into the central gulf and possibly the US?


I'm not going to touch that one! Speculating what might happen beyond 5 days out with a system that hasn't formed into a depression yet is an exercise in futility.

I just edited my post, I forgot to mention that an upper-level anti-cyclone has formed on top, and this should greatly aid development.


Jeff Masters
Any chance this thing will spin its way up the e coast of Florida?
31. IKE
According to the buoy in that area...pressures have fallen there in the last 24 hours. Certainly looks like something getting going.
only if it goes through Cuba first. Poor Cuba. They get their butts handed to them a lot. :(
If it went through Cuba, wouldn't that tear it up so if it hit SE florida it would probably not be much of anything.
Lord only knows, Coconutcreek. Physically, that would be a fair guess, but these storms this season are mutant super-charged freaks of nature. It is anyone's guess.
40. IKE
It is looking more and more impressive every new frame. It has really come along today.
lol yeah. specially since the bamm has jkumped back form itsd cuba path and the gfdl dissipates her in 48 hours. let me check the gfs.

Lefty can you post the GFS?

=) thanks
I know, it's in Java ~ but, it's like watchin a baby hurricane being born. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Oooooh, look at that. How cute. Our bouncing baby blob is getting his first spin :)
Link to birthing video

Yes please GFS link ~ Lefty
here a link to the gfs but it doesn;t show anything. it hasn't picked up the developing ystem yet

Link
skyepony, i like that loop too. this loop is the RGB loop over the same system. it's practically in 3-D


Link
51. IKE
The latest BAMM has shifted back north crossing the Yucatan Peninsula.
Lefty: is that really a spin - or a start of one? Looking at that latest image it doesn't look like it's spinning at all depths???? Does it matter?
When do new model runs come out?
54. IKE
The RGB loop is impressive to look at. Definitely a circulation.
a depression will likely form ion the next 12-24 hrs but it won't be claasified till the recon gets there tomm. nhc disscussion suggest she will move wnw and on that track she ould possibly cross over the western tip of cuba or move between cuba and the yucatan.

i think she still has some slight shear from the ull but that should relax even more as the ull is slowly moving nnw and away from the wave. the ull is being steered away by the cold front
here a link to the gfs but it doesn;t show anything. it hasn't picked up the developing ystem yet

That's not it by Cuba on the 9/30/05 06UTC frame? If it's not, what is that?
there is a circulation at the surface and its hard to see roight now but has been verified by quicksat sat passes. as the system gets better orginised over the next few hours we should be able to see the spin better on sat imagery
58. IKE
Maybe they'll decide to go ahead and fly a recon in later today?
ok new rule for the five day forecast plot......IF YOUR AREA IS IN THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PLOT, YOU WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY A STORM. At least thats how it has been this year.
Good point Hurricane Wayne...
Question posed to Dr. Masters:
What do you think about the predictions of increased tropical cyclone activity for the next 20+ years? Does this mean that, on average, we could see 15+ cyclones per year, as in this year? What are the professionals "unofficially" thinking?

Dr. Masters' Response:
Yes, we should see 12 - 15 tropical storms in non-El Nino years for the next 15 - 30 years. I doubt we'll ever see a year like this year in our lifetimes, though, this is a once in a lifetime year. -Jeff
Unless, of course, you live in an area that is hard to evacuate and a strong storm is forecasted. In that case, I am getting out of dodge while I can.
wannabe, I know ur lurking...

Tuesday, September 27, 2005 Today's Outlook:...(the whole thing is at the beginning of this blog) Most of us could benefit by shining the spotlight on others and appreciating them for what they add to our lives.

For you, lefty, you'll shine today and everyday. Thank you for what you add to our lives. :-)
Yes, and another good rule: The LBAR is apparently created as an "exclusion" model, or a means of modeling what the storm cannot do.
mandy if u look at the loop it pops things in and out. that shows it has no handle on it yet. also could mean it neevr forms per the gfs. thats sort of what dr.masters was saying. since it has not formed and was not formed by any prev model runs track or anything is speculation. now same thing happened with rita. no models or gfs picked upon it for a couple days. so what u see on the gfs is a disturbance but mostlikley not this system. when the gfs pickls it up u will know it.
MCSST composite, from the Naval Oceanographic Office... enjoy!


Link
that's sweet Stormy =)
thanks WillJax, works better that way, huh? :-)
Wow, so we'll be blogging together for the next 10-30 years...oh, we get to grow old together, isn't that special! lol :-)
I feel the need for a group hug
Oh, that was a joke...just in case...
no recon today. theres no immediate threat but since the storm looks to be orginising and if continues this trend will likley formin the next 12-24 hrs they shceduled a flight for tomm afternoon to investigate and get data. 9 time out of 10 they cancellthose flights as the systems fall aprt. since she has kept most of her deep convection durring the day today i am pretty sure she will form some time in the next 12-24 hrs and she will get classified per the recon.
Lefty, I am in agreement that this will be a TD sooner than later. I was guessing by 11 am tomorrow, especially with the dedicated anticyclone that has formed over our Stan Blob. Upper level outflow is doing great!

And damnit stormy, I misinterpreted what you said earlier and bought this silly 2.5 million candle power spotlight to shine at lefty. ;)
thankx stormy. got me blushing lol
Thanks, it just looked more intense than the other spots that were popping up so I figured I'd ask.
lol will. yall crazy lol. yeah i think if this trend continues the diurinalcooling cycle tonight with the relaxed shear will spin stan up quite nice and a 11am classification is possible, keep in mind alot of systems like emily, dennise, rita, ophelia,didn't get classified till the recon got there. so while he might actually be one, the recon is going to be the classification . so it might be like 4 or 5 pm by time the recon gets there.
Play this...Link

Ok, I'll stop now...
willjax, save the spotlight, do not return it! It will come in handy next time there is no power in your neighborhood, then you'll be everyone's best friend cause you'll be the one shining...lol
:-)
yeah mandy, also look at the "L's" that pop in or out. shows the gfs is confused if you will with what might happen. quite common when a system starts to form and the gfs has not picked it up yet. i am sure the next couple runs will be much betetr
Coconut LMAO
love the r.kelly man

look the ships makes him a cane in 48 hrs. shows the explosiveness of the water temps in the carribean.
Coconut, planning a group hug and light shining special this weekend, wanna come? LOL :-)
Lefty what ships?
cat 2 in 72 hours aswell lol.next ships run should be oout soon
Sounds a little kinky, stormy..... count me in ;)
woah
ships intensity model. scroll upand look at the wu model dr.masters has put into his blog
88. IKE
If it is a hurricane in 48 hours...I wonder how the cold front that's coming down into the eastern US will affect Stan? Could be interesting.
Ike, I hope it doesn't steer it here...
Yes, I vow to all to weild this spotlight with responsibility and compassion!

Going to fit in some Tennis before the forecasted Rita Remnants hit my area. Can't wait to see what a few hours does to our StanBlob ( wow, I distinctly remember saying that about RitaBlob).

Ciao.

91. IKE
That's what I'm concerned about.
actually, going to Pensacola this weekend (don't worry 21, won't hunt u down for a group hug lol)....any good destruction up there still that I can photo and post on here for everyone?
Have fun, Willjax
LOL Stormy, yeah, if you go to Pensacola Beach and drive down Navarre Beach Road, you will see alot of damage.... Actually all over the beach.... You will also be able to see leftover damage around the city
Y'all how come skeetobite doesn't even have stan/blog on it's investigational areas? a little behind i guess. I like their computer models.. they are easy to read...
thanks 21, will check it out....
What was that about DOC talkin about lil' stan following the upper level low last night. Which the ull has way grow since yesterday & is slowly moving up fl. Is it caught in that ever more impresive lookin dry trough or is there a battle between ull & trof. I don't think (?) Doc had said much on that, only it follow the ull, where ever it went. any thoughts Link
98. SEFL
Link

skeetobite-99L
The model site I always look at has several tracks on it, but they all look like they've been initialized wayy too far south. Are the models off, or can I just not find the center? Link
Also for intensity: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
WEll then Pensacola should be safe b/c that's where the labar is putting it.
Stormy - There is still a lot to see on Pensacola Beach that is not totally cleared up yet and also in Gulf Breeze the Bay street area and Soundside Dr.
Actually we are at the western tip, we should still be safe though
thanks gbreeze, I was just figuring my route and will add that to my stops also...I'll try to get some good pics for everyone. I gotta go, no more work today. Going home to play! Talk at everyone tomorrow! :-)
Bye, stormy, see you at the huggin party ;)
BYe Strmy
KS, you can move all of those tracks about 70-100 miles north
One would think that the NHC website would have computer model images! I wonder why they dont post them? They are the "official" hurricane site.
I bet the west coast of FL will see Stan the man. they have been too lucky this year!
109. SEFL
"One would think that the NHC website would have computer model images! I wonder why they dont post them? They are the "official" hurricane site."

And what useful information would you expect to get from a computer model that cannot be reliably initialized? I guess it would provide fodder for this blog to second guess all the models!!!
system is still unorginised but a llc seems to be trying to form based on vis sat. also convection is starting to blow up over the stated cenetr located between 14-16n 77-79w
wayne, nooa has models on there site. u must remebr that the site from nhc is only a public info sight. here is the site for the models

Link
It's official. The Louisiana forecasters are in denial. Last night, 5 forecasters on top LA stations assured us Stan would go either into the Yucatan or up Florida because "cold fronts are coming". Here's from WWL (one of Baton Rouge's major news channel)'s blog:

"I know everyone is concerned about this wave and why not after what we've been through.
But rest assured, right now it doesn't appear to be a major threat.
Conditions are only marginal for development and any will be slow to occur. If Stan should forms the steering currents appear to be either into the Yucatan or into Florida. I can't see any reason Stan would be huge looks like shear will be a major problem as he would approach Florida. Upper leve trough will be over the Eastern US and either he will stay south and go into Mexico or be steered North-Northeast and recurve on the east side of the trough."

Note, this was posted just an hour ago, after we've seen a spin and convection develop. The moderator, who is not an amateur blogger but one of WWL's staff meterologists, refuses to answer my questions about the high that could build over Florida, but responds right away to posts suggesting that he should run for FEMA director.

So, if you're in LA, pay close attention to non-LA weather sources. I know Bob Breck promised last night he'd put a stop to hurricanes, but take what you hear locally with a grain of salt because they really are burying their heads in the sand here.
Thanks watcher, looks like another gulf storm :(
noaa flew over the areas hit hard by rita and took 1,000 picture. here is the link. click a box to get the images from that area. each block is a high altitide pic.

Link
you can see how sperlsey populated ther area is and how lucky we were that she did not hit near galveston
I'm going to predict earlier formation. The satellite images really look nice to me. Though I'm not sure when or if this will be called Stan ... I think that today the NHC will start advisories on it.

What do people think of this Caribean Cloud?
Blobby Jr. looks like a depression to me.
hey to all you pretty panhandle girls lol gulf breeze thier is lot of debris to look at on ms coast lol. all being said last year to do over again i would have taken ivan in a heartbeat before getting katrina lol guess thats what happens when you wish one to go hit some body else ole jesus keeps score and gives you alesson of reality. the wave in the central atl is going to do one of two things i hate to bring it up because those young kids who follow these things hate that old historical data but it either hits yuc goes into mex or drifts west north of yuc and then waits for another trough and boom opal again whuch hit oct 3, 1995. by the way if the nhc says this is coming to ms coast in 5 days out i will rest easy given thier track record if they say corpus or brownsville i will be wooried lol. truckload of wet carpet and sheetrock to move out of yard back to work good day
sarge while i feel it will develop in the next 12-24 hrs its far from orginised enough right now. next in these situations they tend to wait till recon investigates it. recon is scheduled for tomm. so thats when they will begin advisories on it
Where do you see it going, Lefty?
recon will arrive at the storm at 1pm est time tomm and first center fix will be at 2pm. so sometime between 1-2pm they will classify her
hey 79.

i think she will move wnw thru the western tip of cuba or betwen cuba and the yucatan. past that who knows. it would be speculation at this point
Slow blog today. Yeah I agree with you Lefty. I think it will just miss Cuba, and will end up somewhere between Cancun and Newfoundland. It will be easier to call when more models come out.
to the over 35 ganf on blog out of all the early oct storms the overwhelming percentage go acroos yuc and in to central america or yuc thier has never been a hrricane make landfall in ms coast or se la in over 100 years the closest n/glf coast hurric to hit were lili 2002 central la juan in 1985 over hallloween which did about 10 loops south of mouth of river . the reason troughs shoot them northeast or highs build in and force s/w to yuc or mexico kieth 2000 mitch 1998 and countless others the real problem spot is typically from the fla/pnh ala opal 1995 and others crossing central or southern fla ala irene 1999 . 79 you are pretty knowledgable and live in tampa area that you would agree is the normal scenario just like hurr rarely hit west of galv in late sept rita reinforced that.
saint. juan in 1985 hit se la around late oct. that was 20 years not 100 years ago. and remebr never say never
127. Mark1
Link

It is plainly growing. There is a clear spin.
i meant major hurr look at nhc arcive hurricane hit by state it will show you all the oct major hurr hit us all hit fla . by the way lefty juan never actually came ashore it looped off the the coast around 91 degrees and finally went in fla panhandle as a tropical storm. models did as about well as they do now lol and thats when nhc had good forecasters bob sheets and niel frank and 85 give them fits with elena and juan. by the way lefty bastardi beat the nhc on track with rita and has sniffed this disturbance out aweek ago so i just read his column and he disagrees with the models imagine that and has this further nort and west so we will see and if any one over 35 on here they ought to remember juan same year kate hit panama city as cat 2 4 days before thanksgiving good old history john hope would be proud.
I agree on the 12 to 24 hours window for the nhc to call is a depression lefty. Most likely by 11 AM tomorrow, near the maximum convection timeframe. I agree on the West tip of Cuba scenario. That upper low seems to be forcong convection Northward and the formative stages of this system will allow for a circulation center to form more North. Steering currents will be weak through 72 hours......but after that
at the same time mark, the deep convection is dying off. plainly due to its porr orginisation and the diurinal heating max approaching. real development will finally take place tonight once the sun goes down and diurinal cooling takes efefct. thats why i say 12-24hrs befor she develops into a td. once a depression forms she will no longer be fully at the mercy of the diurinal cycle. so for right now its dependent on the cooling of the night to develop.
oh yeah 79. i belive she will be a depression befor 11am but they will just wait till recon gets there like they alwasy do. so u say 11am i say 1:30pm lol. lets see who is closer
saint juan came ashore. stalled, than moved back off the coast. most of its damage was due to flodding trains. go to the nhc archives and read the post storm anylasis
sounds good lefty. The only reason that they would say it is a depression before recon would be from reports from Jamaica and satellite images as well.
whats the WRF on the NCEP site?
so true 79
i belive its just a 1-2 days forcast model.
yay a new toy
The convection has at least persisted today as compared to this time yesterday when it really died out.
yeah 79. thats cuase its in a less sheared enviroment so that convection was able to sustain itself. but its still wanning. should blow up nicely tonight
If the damage estimates for Rita hold up, 8 bil for TX and over 30 bil for LA, than Rita will bump Andrew down to 3rd place for most damaging storm. At first I thought that the 30 bil in damages for LA might be too high, but looking at what happened to all the coastal counties there, and the wreckage of the shrimp fleet, the beef herds, the sugarcane fields, I am no longer sure about that.
Take a look at the far East Atlantic tropical wave, looks like it has a spin in the clouds already. Coordinates 10N18W.

Link
correct lefty
Well I take some time off from this thing and look what we have here...

Lefty do you think by tomorrow it will be a depression or will they wait untill Thursday to call it one???
well lefty i guess it came ashore tecnically but i did experience it you were how old then? lol by the way the reason recon is slow invest these storms is because thier funding has been cut but that is dangerous because these things can explod e in carrib and 20 hrs from now cuba or jamaca could have aproblem. the recons can fly at night they should investigate this tonight. i will know they fly right over my house so low i can read the symbol on the side lol keesler afb 8 miles away.
tommorow by 2pm
StSimons, where did you see that estimate?
st simons i usually agree with you but where did you get those totals on rita from fema said this morning about 4 to 6 billion and the max tidal surge was 15 ft. that is in line with a3 certainly not a four once again weather guy was right a elena type storm.
I here ya Lefty, but I think they may wait untill thursdaymorning at the 12am time fram only because it is so ragged right now... But we will have to wait and see it you are close on this one...LOL You say 11am tomorrow and I say Midnite 12am thursday
Sorry lefty you said 2pm... my typing not so good ok LOL
taco, they re flying a recon in there tomm around 1pm. thats when it will be a depression. it looks ragged but its actually more orginised than it looks. there a llc trying to form and when the sun goes down she will take off
SAINTHURRIFAN, have we not learned to not trust what FEMA says?
yea I think so to Lefty and who knows it might be when we wake up tomorrow they go ahead and say it...TD19 or 20 (I Think)
k guys lil xbox time be back in a bit
Have fun Lefty we will keep it going for sure...
Heres what has me going right now, take a look at our little blob stan, then take a look at this... While Ivan was much stronger by now, the position is very close.

Link
Off topic but In Joe Bastardi's column today he said something intresting. . .

.) Tropics:

a.) A piece of Rita that is breaking off and heading slowly southwestward has to be watched over the Gulf.

b.) Northwest Caribbean pressure falls should start tomorrow. I feel the models are too far south next week with this.

c.) Rita-like breakaway from trof that has Phillippe entrained is directed at the Southeast coast. The UKMET is the most threatening looking. The Canadian is too fast. The Euro looks too far south. The GFS even has it. I like this idea that this system, if part of a gruesome twosome, comes westward.

Is that possible.

On the Carribean wave. . .

I think it will develop but not into another Katrina. I could happen but I think it won't. TD 18/19 (losing count)develops by Thursday and Stan forms by Friday.
The GFS may be showing two systems. . .

Link

Animate it from wed Oct 5 and tell me what you think.
Skyepony, - in reply your post @ 7:07 pm

Take notice I remarked in yesterdays post that the ULL may or may not become a guidance factor on soon-to-be Stan. We can see the ULL has expanded and it's orientation is now elongated along the NE to SW axis as part of the trof extending below western Cuba. This is generally forecast to weaken or dissipate, relieving the shear on Stan-to-be.

Let's watch to see if a piece of that ULL, such as what appears centered over the Ilse of Pines area below Cuba becomes a weak, innocuous looking upper low feature ahead of Stan-to-be. It may or may not.

Another example of these upper level eddys can be seen now over Bay of Campeche and it's tending to draw the Rita remnants westward in conjunction with building high to the north.

We'll have to see what transpires for Stan the Man.

Lefty and 79, OK..yesterday I called for TD19 to be officially designated by 5pm today by the NHC. I demand a congressional investigation in this matter!!! LOL
Doc.
I would like to point out JOE B. spoke of the "Rita" situation before the storm hit... Also, we will have at least one storm in the Gulf next week, and I would not let people back into NO.. That could be flooded yet again.

Also, I LOVE to see FEMA fight back Link
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER JAMAICA... PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA... AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


Ull is not as strong here in Cape Coral today...much more activity yesterday....get out of here ULL !!! (Not that I know what that will do....) Stan maybe forming a plan
Maybe if dimwitted people weren't being appointed through nepotism we wouldn't need FEMA to defend its response to Katrina. The next scandal will be the no-bid contrats given out to known fraudulant wasters of taxpayer dollars. Its hard to find supporters for this disgusting behavior even in the far right.
Ramsdis is showing convection re-firingon ne side...this was previously sheared...
NW I meant
165. IKE
18Z GFS has Stan off of the NE Yucatan Peninsula in 96 hours.
So you think that after 60 years without a strong hurricane impact in NO,all of the sudden it is a bullsye for hurricanes?Very unlikely but polk county in florida and the city of lake wales in polk county was directly hit by 3 hurricanes last year.Of course that area does get more hurricanes than NO but they should just becarefull.
i hav updated my blog
Don't forget about the Japanese Mafia's ability to guide these systems Jed.lol.
LOL
Lefty...are you predicting the blob in the Carribean to become a CAT-5?
Is it me or is the Carribean wave getting split in two again?
That guy from the TV station in Idaho was on Glenn Beck's show today. The guy is a quack.
whre did i say that at robert?
I was just joking.
than don;t joke
lighten up
Lefty, LOL, you pulled a few too many Bs
Who is the Idaho guy?
This is my first post on here. I hope I am doing this right. I live in the panhandle of Fl. and was wondering what ya'll think about the possible "stan", getting in the gulf and heading this way? I remember Opal hitting us in October 1995, so I don't think we are in the clear as of yet.
I believe they are referring to the guy that beileves that some country (Russia?) has a weather machine they are using to make and control hurricanes, and they are attacking us with them... Total freaking nutcase.
LEFTY, come on, we're just messin with you come back we need your expertise - seriously
Any chance that this will develop and move up the east coast of Florida?
Sandnjay,

I would say no one really knows what will happen yet. At this point its not even classified as a depression yet so most of whats here is speculation.

However, I see where your comming from (I went through Ivan last year) and can see what might have you concerned... However, no one really knows whats going to happen till this thing gets moving.
Well maybe Bush has the Weapon and Wants to blow south La off the map so the gov. doesn't have to give us the money to built our levees. Put
I think the synoptic set-up of the atmosphere over the Southeast U.S. and Gulf will closely resemble the atmosphere that Rita was influenced by while she was in the Gulf...I seriously doubt we'll see any explosive development (into a CAT 4 or 5 storm) with this system like we saw with Rita, however, we may see the system (assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone) take a similar track like that of Rita's with Northern Mexico over to the Southeast Louisiana Coast as potential areas that may be threaten next week...way too early to say for right now but surely this will be something for everyone to watch...

...As it stands right now, those of you living anywhere from Northern Mexico over to Southeast Louisiana will definitely want to monitor this system very closely...of course this may and probably will change from day to day, so stay tuned...
Come back, Lefty...We promise not to joke around any more
"Lefty and 79, OK..yesterday I called for TD19 to be officially designated by 5pm today by the NHC. I demand a congressional investigation in this matter!!! LOL"

::G:: Hey Doc, get in line! After what I saw today of Brownie's grilling... It may be a while!!!
Ahh, back after a steak dinner. Now I am ready to forecast!
last I heard in synopsis of So FL weather we have high pressure over us thru the week. That would indicate that whatever is down there would move more westerly along the periphery of the high. Correct analysis? That would take it south of Cuba and into the Yucatan Channel, painfully slowly... more or less... is my take. What say the rest of you?
Rita was worse than I thought.
Cgables very good analysis, exactly what will happen..This will have a very hard time moving to the north with the synoptic setup this weekend....Big high pressure setting up from the Eastern US through the Atlantic, it actually will be building westward through the beginning of next week.
what's with the GFDL going south now? (see top of Dr. Master's post)

When they say the models can't initialize them early they must mean it.
It's really too early to say with much certainty the track, you know considering it's not even a depression yet, but it kind of reminds me position wise of Ivan last year. I'm a tad worried over here in Mobile that it could take an Ivan like course, but again way too early to say. Should be an interesting storm to watch and track, just let's hope for no Rita like jumps from minimul hurricane to third strongest on record in a day. That was something else.
wg03, was hoping it might be more than wishful thinking. LOL
Just hope it runs into underpopulated MX area b4 becoming anything substantial. I think we all have had ENUFF!!!
the GFDL dissipates system within 24hours, but that is usually what these models do in the beginning..LOL..
Nah CG it was actually pretty right on at this moment..As much as my climatology mind wants me to think it will move north..LOL..I see this big High developing and cant see it happening right now..
hmf, that's due to the high pressure they talk about building in over FL. Builds strong enough, will push it south of west. Still too early to tell tho' as system isn't deep enough to predict what will influence at which level
wg03 ::VBG:: it's that old Coriolis (sp?) motion pulling all TC north that has you thinking north, as we all do! That is the inevitable until the pressure zones kick in and do their thang...
The GFDL definitely has a poor grip on this area in the Caribbean
Yeah if you look back at climatology in the month of October how may systems in the NW carribean move west..Not many..LOL..
depends on how far south the cold fronts start getting into FL and the Gulf. We don't usually experience *cool* weather until the 3rd week, so it's hard to say what influence there would be on drawing into SE FL, but definitely into the Gulf with trailing ends of cold fronts, can get pretty interesting...
The 18Z GFS does not have a good grip on the system either, but it does have a strong ridge developing over the Eastern half of the US, although that ridge is centered North of the mid Atlantic. The GFS also develops a weakness in the ridge in 7 days. so it may be a matter of how slowly this system moves to decide its fate in the long term.
ah 79, the wait and see game. Once again...
sure thing cgable, there are too many variables right now, such as, where a LLC will eventually form, if it does.
yeah originally I got excitied here in N.Fla as i thought we would get a front through here, but I knew better..LOL..As this week as gone by that front keeps stalling farther and farther north..Oh well..LOL...
I see now I will be still in that easterly flow..Sigh...Thats why I dont see this system moving northward, but again way to early, we shall see..
yeah 7 days out 79 this thing could move into the western Gulf easily and threaten the western or central gulf coast...But as far as making a turn N or NE towards Florida, right now I doubt it..
just looked at the spaghetti run, and most cross the Yucatan but a lone one heads up FL Panhandle way. Far too early to figure it out. We're all just making educated guesses here... ::G:: but it's always interesting to pit ourselves against the everchanging Mother Nature.
wg03, chances are low for FL. But, I am not sold on what this thing will do for the next 5 days.
210. code1
If it hits FL in a few days, I'm scr**ed either way....live in the panhandle and supposed to fly to Miami on Sun. for work!!
The NHC places a 1009MB low near 15N 77W moving slowly WNW, but that is going by continuity and satellite, which could cause a shift at anytime if the weak low reforms in another location
Well this is what normally happens this time of year in the Gulf and Caribeanen and we all have to watch this so closely... Now the storms that do form this time of year goes towards the North Gulf Coast Area (MS,AL,FL)... and sometimes they are cat3 to 4...

I am not saying that this one will be a Rita nor a Katrina but could be a Dennis or Cindy, Dennis was a cat3 at land fall but a small one and Cindy was a Tropical Storm at land fall. Either way it is right at 7 days away and we do have time to be ready... I will say this though the High pressure that will build in will have everything to do with it and where it goes, So don't let your guard down just yet...
he ate tooo mant tacos taco lol
warning: dont eat too much cajun food may cause excess gas lol
Well - just got home @ 3:00 a.m. today. Evacuated last Wednesday @ 2 p.m. from Clear Lake, Tx. 16 hours to drive 200 miles to Center, TX. Ended up going where the darn storm hit. Spent 3 days without power because couldn't get home on the roads. Finally left last night around 11 PM and made it back home in under 4 hours. Ridiculous. Took some of my family 20 - 26 hours to get to my grandparents house. Others never made it. Had 18 people @ grandparents and no power. But - I'll do it again for the next one - just leave as soon as the darn thing hits the Gulf of Mexico... BTW - at home (my husband stayed behind) we had a little rain and some wind. Does this classify me as a storm chaser, even thought that's not what I intended???
Glad to see everything is okay nativetx
Native TX,
I say you are now a Storm Chaser...LOL and I am glade that you all are ok too...
If I had to say what the low pressure center is on that area in the caribbean was right now, it would be at 16.5N 77.5W, according to satellite imagery
Thanks - It was crazy where I was. Shelters all over town, one person got electricuted trying to hook up a generator to their chicken houses. Another got on the road on Sunday, when we were advised not to - and had a tree fall on her car. They never said if she was hurt. Just nuts...
79 i fix it at 16.5n and 78.2w
Lefty, it is possible that the low is broad and covers both areas. Either of our fixes could easily change though if this system starts to organize and the low center reforms.
yeah 79 its mostlikley broad for ti being disorginised. i was just giving you my fix. and i know once it orginises noether fix will be right lol.
224. code1
NativeTX,
Unless you are right on the coast, or in a flood prone area, sometimes it is best to ride it out at home, if and that is a big IF, your house is substantial enough to take the wind and you cover your windows with something other than the cardboard that was shown a few days ago on this blog lol. Glad you and yours are safe.
8:05 pm Update of Tropical weather discussion from NHC:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUN SEP 27 2005
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF CUBA WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH
SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO
THE WNW IS LIKELY... PLACING THE SYSTEM IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATE
WED/EARLY THU. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 72W-76W...AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
76W-80W.
It'll never make it to tropical storm status.
Good job Forsman, you killed the blog... LOL
Robert, is that prediction based on thoughtful analysis of available met data or simple hyperbole?
looks like the center is kinda reforming to the north a little bit........around 17.5n 75.5w
Wow, looks less organized than earlier today.
I thought nighttime was when it supposed to be when it was at its peak.
wow, horrible typos there.
It will regain most of the convection during the blackout. THis is what I have seen the past two days. Always looks ragged around this time.
what about the remnants of Phillippe that Joe (Accuweather) is posting?

Rita-like breakaway from trof that has Phillippe entrained is directed at the Southeast coast. The UKMET is the most threatening looking. The Canadian is too fast. The Euro looks too far south. The GFS even has it. I like this idea that this system, if part of a gruesome twosome, comes westward.


234. tedly
Leyftieo - why not stop being illiterate and try typing correctly. Read what you type. Open the dictionary if you cannot spell.

This is getting tiresome. I quote you:


"yeah 79 its mostlikley broad for ti being disorginised. i was just giving you my fix. and i know once it orginises noether fix will be right lol."

What say? "Noether"? "ti"? "Organises"? "will be right"? "mostlikely" ?

Maybe just go away and rest for several weeks. You can buy a computer program "Mavis Teaches Typing" for about $20 and a paperback dictionary costs about $5.
ted i could care less about my typos
Hello everyone!
Wow, that's uncalled for Tedly. If your here to discuss Lefty's typing then you are in the wrong place. I think we have filled our troll quota for the next month given Wannabe's outburst last night. So, how about you go eat a billy goat or something? Come back when you have something to contribute other than pointing out grammer mistakes.

BTW it's "Mavis Beacon Teaches Typing" if your gonna throw insluts around at least get the title right... Ok?
LOL... Insults... LOL
Hey CoconutCreek,
Hows your weather today???
Heck I know I need that class for sure... LOL
Hi Taco. Hot! A little overcast and some slight showers earlier. Typical Florida weather. I can't wait for it to cool down a bit. Maybe we'll get a cold front and head down to 70 :)
btw, northern remnants of Rita blew through here Sun overnight (in Canada, between Buffalo and Detroit), gave us impressively heavy rains - 3 to 5 inches, which is lots for these parts
well Coconut Creek,
I think you will cool off for a day or two but it will get hot again from what I see right now anyway... The cold front will stall and then move back north as a warm front... But it will soon cool off about the end of Oct first of Nov, if we can wait that long...LOL
It's funny how relative everything is. My in-laws are coming to visit for the holidays. They are going to be sweating like crazy while I will have on long sleeves.
The in-laws are from Minnesota. Notice they are coming here. I spent all of one christmas in MN and swore I would never return. I don't know how people live like that :)
hey coco, cold front from Canada headed yer way :)
LOL @ Coconut Creek, I do really understand... :)
248. code1
Lefty,
Keep it coming, typos and all!! Your info is much better than any other's I have seen. Not to insult those who have good info too.
i just love how some people take so much time worried but what i am doing. more than my own mom
What is it with your Canadians... always sending your cold fronts and maple syrup our way :)

Just kidding... I have some very good friends who are Canadian lol
I second that, code1.

Legitimate discussions about facts or differences of opinion are okay. Everyone ends up learning something. Personal attacks are non-productive and, if done while hiding behind a keyboard, petty and sad.
by the way, when I said "horrible typos" earlier I was referring to my own in the previous post, not to anyone else's. I came back and saw a typo argument and wanted to clarify.
convection has waned all day but in the last hour its started to blow back up and right over the supposed low cenetr and the possible llc that i thought i saw forming earlier. the next few hours will be fun to see this baby take of
254. code1
Well said CoconutCreek. I'll be in your part of Miami Sun. night (Residence Inn) unless the "blob" comes your way or mine in the mean time.
From what I see of the floater track remains WNW? The final frame of the visible floater it looks like its reforming just to the north west of where it seemed to fall apart... Is this correct?
Hi all!

I've been reading this blog since its early days and had only posted once. I love reading everyone's thoughts, including Lefty, 79, Stormtop, etc. Also enjoy hearing form those in the Mobile/Pensacola area, as I live halfway between the two cities. Keep on posting boys and girls. I've learned a lot about tropical weather reading this blog. Please ignore the personal attacks.

PS - does anyone know how to change one's user name? I hate having the word "jerk" in my title and wished I didn't set it up that way.
257. code1
hmfynn,
I saw that, know it was directed at yourself. No problem:)
flg maybe north of where u thought but i placed it at 16.5n and 78.2w and that where the new convection is blowing up right above it. we will see what happens in the next hour or so
259. code1
To All,
I am a lurker anyway. Wanted that upfront! Don't have enough education on meterology to make an educated forecast/guess. Really enjoy lurking, just hate the attacks.
Code1: i was a lurker for a long time and only recently started posting. I have NO background in meteorology but am trying to learn. I have found this blog very informative (typos and all).
so i her that we may have a new TD 19 comeing soon so where is it going and how big will it be?
code1: you have mail
263. code1
Thanks CCFLA. I have learned quite a bit as well. Let's hope this doesn't hit your area or mine. I hope it goes (if it develops) to an unpopulated area. Got to go to bed, the hospital call is early in the morning here in Mobile. Will be at Jackson Memorial next week. Aren't I lucky to live in the panhandle and go to the areas hard hit? lol. Night all.
nite Code1 be safe and maybe I will see ya around here sometimes...:)
Night Code1. I'll be within shouting distance of you on Tuesday. I'll be at the Sylvester Center at U of M.
What satellite feed (link?) are you using to observe the caribbean wave? Is it showing any signs of intensification?
267. code1
CCFLA Back to you.
268. code1
Thanks Taco, nite all. (especially Lefty, though it will probably bring bad comments.)
bekroweather:
Link
Evening all. After working about 17 hours last night they gave me tonight off. My girlfriend has to work tomorrow morning so I actually have a little time to blog. Had to take a break as after Katrina and O my girl was getting a little jealous of ya'll.lol. So what about those Phil reminants? Any thoughts? And I expect 19 to look much better after blackout. Always seems to.
hey sj
What's up left! I saw you were getting so0me Xbox earlier, but I was still trying to catch up on sleep after last night. I am not 20 anymore. That 17hr night put a hurtin on me.
Have any of the models started picking up on 19 yet?

And how many of the models other than the Ukmet are picking up on the remains of the Phil front?
lol i feel ya. i was playing madden any way
Sorry ya'll, way off topic. Lefty have you checked out the multi team on Halo yet? Pretty good stuff. Always wanted a Multi team type thing.

i think the next model runs will pick upon it. we will see in a lil bit when they come out
do any one think that this storm be a cat 5 too i think that cat 5 are cool my you do not see them all the time
You're not saying much on the Phil front thing Lefty? What gives?
good nite all will chat with ya tomorrow...Then we will see if we have TD19...
Hey everyone, I've been lurking for awhile. I love meteorology but, not confident enough to join in without sounding like a fool. I have a question what are some of your predictions on the new system out there. I'm heading to the Yucatan Saturday
I doubt it will be more than a 3 888, but nothing is out of the question. Depends alot on where it goes and all.
yeah its alright sj
GA, don't be afraid to look like a fool on a blog, that is just silly. Chime in whenever you want.

The track is still up in the air since it has not even developed yet. Yuctan is not in the clear, but I think you will know more by late tomorrow and in to Thursday as far as track goes. May know enough by tomorrow to determine wether it will make a N turn or not.
Night Taco.
do any one think that a cat 5 hurrican is cool when they are not makeing land fall but this lol around out therei think that we may see one more be for the hurrican year is done do you??
Just wish it was all slayer.
i am bussy harrassing those trolls in alecs blog. i ahd enough of thekm so i am trolling them like they do me. u should joinme. some funny stuff lol
yeah team ball was just wack lol.
to mr lefty beeing with the devestation we here have experienced with katrina and my wife having cancer this blog is the only time i spend in the evening because as and adult i have responsibilities if what you did you think is funny then you are very imature as far as you calling people trolls well son im a just a dum old ms boy with a mba and comp science degree so your attitude of superiority is probably just. but im a cristian and dam well dont appreciate people being referred to as devil or demon connotations ive tried to be nice to take up for you at times but you have no remorse or apparently any feelings for anyone but yourself thee only thing people try to suggest to you is quit being arrogant and manipulative may god have mercy on your soul.
Man, can't do it Lefty, those are some huge pics and they are slowing my pc down.lol. What started all of this, if it was that brat Jeff then you are smart enough to beat him with words, but I can't even follow that blog anymore with all them giant pics.lol.
leftyy420 i like to have some fun with you i do i get there
lol sj. those are [ics of nooa fly pvers pf rita damage. nopw alec sent me some nasty e-mails and than some one came in here and made some comment on my typing so when i went over there to lurk they were talking crap about me so i ffigured soince i have left them, alone and they still won'tleave me alone time to return the favor. so now al;ecs blog is no longer their little care free spcae. lol its so funny they are so angry
so do i did the right thing that i tell you all that was Jeff on there or not
Saint, that is just BS. People come in here like wannabe and all the alter ego Jeff14's including Letty42O. And very few from Alecs blog ever defend him. So maybe if ya'll would take a stance against a little kid who has no respect for others as opposed to trying to start crap with some one who is on here because he has a knowledge of tropical weather and wants to learn more then maybe we would not be in this situation. I think the giant pic was great once, but I agree the multiples have onver done it. That being said, just because you are Christian does not make you any better than most others. Let the one with out sin cast the first stone, something like that.
saint, what is this 'god' you speak of?
I know Left, they have done the same thing with me and i reacted the same as you, just killed them with words. Then Shera and I came to a truce and she seems to have pretty good control of the others.lol. You should try it. Just tell Shera you want a truce, sincerely, and ask her to please call off her minions so that you don't have to waste your time or their time.
play nic all
once again son nothing hits home to you you are still playing now since you have aissue with a14 year old who really knows how old you are not how old you act. maybe you ought to look in the mirror and judge yourself and not everybody else if you would quit dominating these blogs and be more open on your views it would help remember you are not alone always right and every one is always wrong
be cool all
Saint, now whos doing the judging?
Wannbe, you are so ignorant. I will stay as long as I please and I will say what I please in a fashion that will not get me booted and will always prove your ignorance. I stated the fact that you give Lefty a lot of crap. THat is true. Why are you freakin out? ....ignorance, that is why.
Well, good night all!
LOL SJ
Honestly this blog is like highschool...err maybe middle school all over again. Can't we all just get over ourselves and talk about the weather?

Hey I have a question (pertaining to this storm, imagine that! lol), aruond what time does the blackout end?
My views are very open Saint, just ask Shera.

"Give us the chance and we will trip over our own ignorance"-Storm Junkie.

That describes the majority of us in a nut shell. Myself included and that alone shows thay I am more open minded then you could ever dream of being saint. You belive that all Islamist, Budhists, and any other religion other than Christians are going to hell. Just becuase they grew up in a different culture then you. If you had grown up in Saudi Arabi you would be islamist. That is a fact.
BLACK OUT ENDS AROUND 2:45 AM BUT WE DON;T GET THE FIRST IMAGES TILL 30 MINUTES LATER SO 3;15AM
junk remember the cartoon look at max he is my hero look how strong i threw astone for i dont call people trols curse and throw kiddy fits for lefty he is no more knowledgable than many others he is young and i assume you are to and has afollowing which is good but the young kid jeff should have his butt whipped but as a 40 year old man i will not let a kid bring me to his level. also thier is a way to be permanently banned on here where changing name want let you back on so all of us need to remember that, but storm you get in trouble because the way you carry on peopl think you and lefty are the same. by the way i have a deal of burden right now that i hope you never have to endure all i ask is this 1 person blog becomes one for everyone with everybody included and responding not just 3 is sharing and caring dead in this world today it sure seems like it.
Wannabe your views are igonorant, narrow minded, and extreme left biased (ie left does everything correctly and alll bad is Bush's fault). That is not waht is going to help this country solve the problems we face.

"The significant problems we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them"-Albert Einstien.
Sorry Mandy, they do this all the time. Shoould be either 3:15 UTC or 3:45 UTC.
storm if you are not achristian thats your choice i pray you are but thats your choice aand between you and jesus now i guess i know your problem. that explains it.
I'm going to bed, I'm bored with the bickering.
Night all
Thanks for the info, I'll get to check it out once I get to work then.
k mandy
wannabe attacking them makes you no better let it go i was told if some body ridicules you calls you name and you retaliate by saying i will pray for you they are usually left speechless.
Saint again we show our ignorance so easliy and are so narrow minded some times. Lefty and I are very different people. He is a large blackman and I am a rather small white man. He is a little younger then me and lives in VA I live in SC. We are both here to learn about these systems and that is what this blog is for.

As for the kid. He did not get to me, the fact that he was defended by so many is what got me. Many kids are spoiled brats and that really chaps my A. For people to defend him on a place that is meant for learning is why so many of our children will never be able to deal with real world problems.
Evening Tim. :).
well tim im ope for typing lessons and i will just say thank you i will watch my typing seems like typing errors is what got lefty mad lol not me by the way tim you get 40 your eyes are not as good especially being in the heat all day cleaning up from katrina and taking care of a sick wife but i promise i will get some glasses lol.
Wow everything suddenly got all "preachy" and well political on here. I love politics and religious discussion as much as the next guy but I just kind of figured we'd be talking about the storm and not having one guy asking for God (notice if He is your diety then His name is always capitalized) to have mercy on a guy's soul.

Take things too serious much guys?
The only thing you know about ignor is ignorance wannabe. Please do ignore me, as unless your mindless type is around I am usually discussing weather.
storm still cursing and insulting i guess that makes you feel good well you can do it to me i dont count but i know someone who does keep score.
Evening Storm. Look, I think we're all a little frustrated by the inactivity in the atlantic, and since there is nothing to focus on in the tropics we are focusing on each other. We're all hurricane fans right? I have a rain suit, and am ready to chase the next storm that hits the southeast. I love these things. Their beautiful works of nature. I love to experience them. (yet up until now I have not had a rainsuit, duh). Yes they are destructive, that's a fact of life. If people want to be unwise and build on the shore that's up to them. Meanwhile I am loving this active record braking historical sason, that now has a pathetic lull. :)
Oh look... The little anger ball is back. Will you yield? Or will I be forced to smack you around again? One last time Wannabe, go eat some billy goats with your buddy tedly, you little troll.
I was thinking about pointing out that capital G thing Bamma. Good point.

Anytime wannabe shows up it always turns political Bama.
WANNABE THERE WAS 3 DEMOCRATS LOL
Wannabe, you have brought your politics in here since day one. I was here with Lefty and others trying to convince people to leave NO two days before Katrina hit. So please do not accuse me of making this political. You just have a HO for Bush. We get it. Settle down. You are to narrow minded to understand much of anything.

And Saint-who am I cursing? And you know him huh? You have seen him face to face? Faith is nothing more then self delusion. Hope is what relegion is.
gosh, my head hurts....reading all of that, insults and extremely poor grammar, especially with no punctuations..who cares about typos? at least we can all undertand those....OK Lefty, I know, too soon to call anything....my concern in South Florida is the remnants of Phillippe..seems like "remnants" and "blobs" have been our concerns so far.
bama you are right GOD by the way the experience is right here in south ms people homeless out of work and dead its wonderful experience here. by the way i wanted to talk about the weather but people begin playing on the blogs and i wonder why GOD has become such a distasteful word and devil words like trolls are acceptable could explain our society today.
wow 3. You are truly a wonderkid Lefty. I didnt do a headcount but there were about 15 empty chairs - those were all for dems. reps were 95% and asked some of the most scathing questions, some even highly critical of the Bush admin. It's not the left wingers that are unhappy with this admin - its 70% of the country.
the remants of phillipw will get absprbed by a frontal boundary. that boundary might spawn a low pressure system at the tail end of the fron. thats a big maybe. now for the blob. right now its tracks appear like it would affect the western gulf or m,exico but we will know more once it actually forms
i tohught philipe is going to be carried away by cold front?
Please wannabe, you have blamed everything except for the sun flares on Bush. Some of which I agree with, but it is obvius that you are not intrested in truth only you're Bush agenda. And not taking any blame off of Brown, but the local official bare at least as much blame, and I think more, then Brown. All of it is not his fault either though, FEMA is a fialed system without proper financing and BOTH sides spend too much money on pork that could go to things like FEMA. One day you may understand.
Wow Storm you are a true saint - I'm sure all those folks that were stuck in NOLA were reading your warnings here and were just too stupid to leave. I bet they all voted for Kerry too. You are invincibly ignorant.
storm its known of my business but are you a athethist if so then hats the choice you are given but dont ridicule the rest.you can not see oxygen but does it exist
You know if the south had more Democrats, none of this would have happened.
Stepping around the piles.......hey, guys. So, will it be a tropical depression tomorrow??? Just looking for a little weather talk.
Storm I blame Bush for the things that the President should be blamed for, like doing adequate background checks for FEMA, Homeland Security, I don't blame a man for something he has no control over. Whatever happened to "the buck stops here". Face it there are a lot of really unhappy folks in this country and Bush's numbers aren;t getting any better. He is turning into a pariah for the GOP.

PS Stormy I am a registered republican and I voted for Bush 41 adn Regean and Dole.
Some did leave wannabe because of warnings posted by many. Some we have heard from, some we have not-NolaMommy. ANd the results of what happened in NO are not just this administrations fault wannabe! Funding has been cut for years and we have know for years what would happen if a storm hit NO. To not have a proper plan was absurd. Again I tell you the problem is Left to Right Top to Bottom. The pork has to go. Wake up and get your head out of....
Tim.....supposedly a part of Phil "broke off" and heading SE.....Lefty says no worry......who knows? I'm sure you read Lefty's report
Ooops, slipped into one of those piles......why, after days of cutting down the press coverage of the weather and calling them everything but good, can we now determine that this same press does a fine job in deciphering how this country feels?????? Disconnect much?
Redstick - Most people seem to think we will have TD19 sometime tomorrow.
Thanks, Mandy. I'm running now before I stay up uselessly debating politics on a weather blog. What have I done with my life? Good night all. And, may God bless and keep you -no matter what you call Him.
I have hope that there is a god, Saint. And I have been raised as a Christian. Again. If you had been raised in the Middle East in a Islamic extremist area, you would be looking for a way to be a martyr so that you could get your 70 virgins. It is a scary life admitting that we do not know what happens when we die, but I am a realist. For me (and most I think) to say that without a shdow of a doubt there is a heaven or afterlife would be lying.
Storm are you utterly clueless? People COULD NOT GET OUT. It simply was NOT a choice for many. There were a lot of very poor and uneducated folk in NOLA. It was a failure on many levels, federal , state and local. But, the light that the NOLA debacle shown on the kind of people we have running executive agencies in this country should terrify everyone. How many MORE Browns are in this administration just waiting to really screw up royally when they are most needed?

I law there is something called caomparative negligence. it is commonly understood that in any mishap there is more than one party at fault. But, there is usually one especially egregious offender that the gets the blame. In the case of NOLA that person is justifiably Brown. And he is total weenie did you hear his whining testimony today before congress? It was pathetic.
well good night and i hope ppeople have change of heart and for the majority of the folks in south ms. where katrina hit we respect pres bush and god bless him in these trying times if anybody should be ridiculed its kathleen blanco for refusing fed assis. the day before the storm but finger pointing and name calling wont change the past, and lefty for all the english majors who criticize our typing they can get a grip lol.storm goodnight and may the peace of what ever you believe be with you and to tim send me hooked on phonics and to lefty no more uva quaterbacks brooks is killing me lol peace guys no more insults are we all sound like jeff .
lol Redstick. I am done too. Back to weather for me.

Two hours til blackout ends, bout an hour and a half til new models.
Wannabe, Blanco and Nagin are ok though right? Again your ignorance astounds even me. How about ask for their resignation everytime you talk about how bad Brown did. I think you would be making a great argument then. Brown already stepped up and stepped down.
Night Saint.
Storm do you read? I just said it was a failure at all levels of govt. But BROWN is the one that got appointed to FEMA director with ZERO experince and a false resume - he was a the head of some horse club before - seriously Storm wtf? LOL

What scares the hell outta me is, who else is there in this administration that is the next BROWN.

Did you hear the man today? He was pathetic.
Goodnight Saint. Here's hoping things start getting better for you.

I'm gonna sign off myself while I'm at it. I would love to stay up and see what it looks like after the blackout but I got school tomorrow. Well I know what's going on in the morning.

Good night politica...... I mean weather watchers.
Did anybody here know that Brown still works for FEMA as a "Consultant"?
PS I dont like NAGIN and I'd never vore for him. But I'm not from NOLA. I didn't pay muc attention to Blanco but if is anything like NAGIN O say get rid of er too.
Redstick -- get you some of those hip waders. You stay in here long enough tonight and you're going to need them!
I think for those actually talking weather, I agree with MandyTX...the consensus is TD19 sometime tomorrow. My guess (and it's strictly a guess) is the late afternoon update.
You know...I read all the way to this point in this blog and must admit that I found it mildly entertaining...but in a childish, sandbox sort of way. "You made it political." "No, YOU made it political." ad nauseum....*sigh*
Got news for both of you...weather is not political. It's WEATHER. Weather, last I looked, touches every corner of this planet we live on. It doesn't care if you're Republican, Democrat, aetheist, Presbyterian, Nigerian, Scientologist, Peruvian, an elephant, beetle, wombat, Caucasian, Asian, or ___________________ (fill in the blank). We have very little control over the weather, but it sure has an awful lot of control over us.
Case in point is tonight...it made some folks here nuts!Could it be the low pressure trying to get its act together to form TD19? Did the drop in pressure do something to their brains? Hmmmmmm...perhaps another scientific weirdness to blame on politics.
*Yawn* Ok...my $.0345 worth. And I guess that puts it about on value with the political BS tonight. Now all of you who have managed to elevate your ciollective blood pressures to new and dangerous heights tonight...slowly step away from your computer...walk outside...go ahead!...there's weather out there! Now...do you remember why the hell you came to WEATHER Underground in the first place????
Nighty night chil'ren.
HateHurricanes yeah I knew. It's an outrage.
My area in South Georgia had the wettest June, July and August in forty years. September may end up with record dry weather with less than an inch so far. We got nineteen inches last September. This September has been the hottest since 1980. A lot of extremes going on weatherwise.

In fourteen months, there have been eight major hurricanes:
Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Emily, Katrina and Rita. That's incredible. What ever happened to the company that was trying to develop a foam to spray into tropical cyclones in order to weaken them? I saw a story about it a few years ago. I'm not making this up.
DestinRick, Amen brother. Lot of weather evolving but kiddie chatter has hijacked the site again.
i guess they put themselves in time out...
so does anybody have the latest model runs? maybe we can actually discuss weather now...
the foam that you're talking about is actually Dyna Gel. it's the same thing they use in diapers to soak up the water. it can absorb up to 20 times its weight in water. once it falls to the sea, it dissolves harmlessly in the ocean. problem is, you need a heck of a lot of planes filled to the brim with the gel to knock out a hurricane...
I dunno guys if we actually will have TD19 tomorrow...been studying the wv loop last 2 hrs. and our lil Stan looks to have had the lifeblood sucked out of him. That persistent upper low locked over FL is severely shearing the surface low's environment as well as it's high pressure dome. The mets on here need to take a look.
Funny how right-wingers rip Blanco, yet 200+ died on Barbour's watch and not a peep. Also, common sense should tell you that no city can bus and shelter 100,000 people (estimated numbers in NO without cars) without Federal help. The poor people were left behind in Houston, too.
Hey, where'd Stan Blob's convection go? It has all but disappeared! I suppose he did that last night, and he'll do it again tonight. Perhaps we'll see even more explosive convection to make up for this lull in activity as he goes through his cycles.

Has anyone notice there is a Typhoon Longwang?
"Well I was vacationing in Taiwan when suddenly a really powerful Longwang developed..."
DocNDswamp, its being sheared all right, but there still looks to me like a low just south of Jamaica moving to the northwest. i usually don't like using the Dvorak Sat loop, but it shows the rotation better. look to the south of Jamaica. now without models, we really can't see what will happen eventually. looks like the ULL is headed almost due east now, and these are old pics, but i could just be blind too, and seeing things...

Link
And of course even if TD19 never develops, don't forget about our Cape Verde wave friend.

Here, check out the latest UKMET and see where that model places the wave in six days.

Yes, the East Coast...
NOGAPS and GFS, two of my models that I used during my Navy days, show the same thing forming...

Link
at least, a Blob of somethin'...
weatherspirit, you're right...the ULL is slowly ejecting to the ENE now and further eastward under the huge building ridge north of 30N. But what I see happening in the short term is by their relatively close proximity, and some possible dry air entrainment in say, 12-24 hours further development of want-to-be Stan is marginal.
Doc
WillJax - LOL on Longwang...saw that on Monday obs. and did doubletake...saywhat??? .."as Longwang rams it's way into...

Yeah at this point, really hard to say what'll happen. I do realize I'm viewing the weakest period in the daily cycle of any trop sys.

Still see center near 18N 79W last view...Degree of convection predawn - thru midday will tell us strengthening potential. Certainly had healthy outflow developing Tuesday.

Heck I was probably more confident than any back on Mon. it would be a TD or even TS Stan by today, and now think I'm seeing it's demise.

Likely I'll be wrong.
Well, watching Stan Blobs convection earlier today, in combiniation with the anticyclone that formed above him and the very warm waters over which he was [is] hovering... I was convinced he could be a depression by 11am.

Oh well, I suppose the recon flight wouldn't have made it out there by 11am anyway. Would look into him more tonight, but must get some rest.

Good night fellow weather lovers.
And indeed Doc, I did a double take. If only Longwang could make his way to the Atlantic hurricane list...
G'nite WillJax and weatherspirit...looks like we're last to leave...at least we were able to clear out the crap and end it with some positive weather discussion...time to hit the hay myself...nite all.
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW NEAR 12 KT.
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE E NEAR 16N74W. THIS AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIED DOWN TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE LATER THIS MORNING.
It has been one MEAN hurricane season so far. Maybe the higher powers believe that we need another week of hot temps to heat up the Gulf of Mexico before sending another hurricane through. Every hurricane season there is a system in which environmental conditions seem favorable yet we end up with a fizzle out. Is this just another example of this?
Well, if anyone wondered what happened to the tail end of Rita, or at least the tail end of the cold front that pulled Rita, it is developing off the coast of South Alabama as we speak. *sigh* Glad it is only a few miles offshore, so that it doesn't have the time or the room to develop into something more than a few thunderstorms and light winds. But there is definitely a circulation that shows up on the local radar. Just thought the die hards might want to know, since everything else seems to have settled down. :)
Feeling tail end of Rita effects in Pensacola/Gulf Breeze area as well. I was stunned when I saw the radar with that rotation on it. Good thing we are due for cooler air by tomorrow.
Is that a circulation that I see SE of Miami this AM?