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Caribbean disturbance a threat to Puerto Rico; Hawaii needs to keep an eye on the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on October 12, 2006

An area of disturbed weather (90L) over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands expanded significantly in size overnight, but has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. Wind shear is 10 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next two or three days. Water temperatures are about 29 degrees C, which is plenty warm for a tropical cyclone. There is quite a bit of dry air to the west, which may distrupt any heavy thunderstorm activity that tries to form. Martinique radar shows considerable thunderstorm activity, but the activity is pretty disorganized at present. Winds in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands have been unspectacular so far today--no more than 15 mph at St. Kitts, St. Maartin, and Antigua. The morning pass of the QuikSCAT satellite missed 90L; we'll have to wait until about 9pm EDT tonight for the next pass. It is difficult to tell from satellite imagery or surface reports if 90L has a surface circulation. Due to the collapse of heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, it now appears unlikely 90L will become a tropical depression in the next two days.

Most of the computer models forecast a track over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands the next two days, with the disturbance moving over Puerto Rico Saturday morning and the Dominican Republic on Saturday night. The system is being drawn northwest by a strong trough of low pressure passing to the north of the islands. However, it appears that this trough is not strong enough to pull 90L out to sea, and high pressure should build in and force the storm westward by Sunday. The storm still has a chance to become a tropical depression early next week if it can avoid Hispaniola. However, wind shear is expected to rise over the Caribbean beginning on Sunday, and this may put an end to the threat.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Hawaii
Residents of Hawaii should continue to watch an area of disturbed weather (97C) near 9N, 166W, about 1000 miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 12:56am EDT this morning showed a closed surface circulation, and some wind barbs of 40-45 mph to the south of the center. The thunderstorm activity has gotten more intense over the past day, but is still disorganized. Wind shear has increased to about 15 knots today, but this is still low enough to allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 29C, and there is a very deep pool of warm water underneath to fuel intensification. Both the GFDL and NOGAPS models forecast that 97C will become a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane that will threaten the Hawaiian Islands on Monday night or Tuesday.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "97C".

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models continue to show the possibility of a low pressure system forming in the Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast early next week. This low will probably be non-tropical, though. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to develop along the Pacific coast of Mexico by Monday and move northwest towards Baja. Baja does not need to worry about Tropical Depression Olivia, which is expected to dissipate Friday before reaching Baja.

I'll have an update later today if 90L or 97C show significant change.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

good morning.
Thanks for updating.
thanks Dr. Masters!!! Looks a little more interesting!
Heres my exit...Westbound on Interstate-10..just west of New orleans Airport..Livewebcam..Link
Sorry you had no comment on 91L. Must have happened as you were preparing your update.
INVEST 91L is up with model runs

Link
91L a new invest??? any links to that Rand? Good morning all!
Thanks HCW ... i didnt refresh in time.
Guys this is concerns me if this TROF will not pull 90L out to sea it may very well follow a track to what the GFDL is calling for.If this indeed makes it into the western caribbean we need to watch closely as another TROF may pull 90L towards the north and may threaten cuba and florida.
A mighty good morning to you StormW.

hurricane23 - I liked you until you mentioned Florida - I just don't want to hear that (throwing head into sand-denial prevailing). We ONLY want to hear it will take the usual path this year and die, die, die!
u know just a few days ago i wouldve thought the season was dead ... things change quickly
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters! Boy what a difference 12 hours makes!

Afternoon all!
Ha Morning All!
...91L is a Verde, hhhmmmmm...thought we got those done already....gm, all, the third shift was up pretty late...lol

(sorry, only one eye open so far this morning!)
saddlegait i feel the same way u do i live in miami.
The Bourbon St...Link
What is with all of the aircraft crashes...

Someone who I work with passed away yesterday in a helicopter crash in the Dominican. RIP Butch.
Prisoners sweep the French Quarter..LOLLink
More recent.




wow ... 91L does look healthy for its location and time of year. thanx Rand
BY WHEN DO YOU THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN HURRICANE23
With the MJO pulse clearly in place across parts of the caribbean conditions may be favorable for developement.
Cold..chilly air..Link
MiamiWeather- there is no need to yell.
looks like 90L wants to stay NW then N and miss the Carribean,...
Miamiweather if this system mananges to make it into the western caribbean we need to watch closely in south-florida as by then there will probably be another TROF in place trying to pull whatever is down there to the N-NE.
hi all things are heating up again will l be a td at 11 am or 5pm will if head twoard fla and will
91L take the same path could this be a one two punch for fla. anyone know thanks . local mets said to watch for 90l to be a deppression today
All depends on how quick and strong the high builds in after the trough! That is if the trough doesen't pick it up first!
Been watching this all morning gang. I now find myself agreeing with the BAMMs and the GFDL on 90L's track. It looks like it is going to duck under PR and Hispaniola right now. How far under? Can't tell yet.


91L.....

seems there is a statistical sort of 2nd "peak" mid-oct...... looks like we are there.........

Almost looks like a split in the system this morning. Maybe the models are seeing two different things.
Patrap 90L right now is feeling a tug from a TROF that is near by and is being pulled to the north.The problem i see is if this TROF will not pull it out to sea it may very well be pushed back to the west by high pressure.
Im going with the last 3 hrs motion..and that the up-pulse convective burst are clearly sending out gust fronts ..as seen on the RAMSDIS..
That dang GFDL!! Cant it change its course!..LOL Oh well.
My opinion on the previous blog and it still stands.

It appears that 90L is already calming down somewhat. Both 90L and 91L have some clockwise rotation around them as well as a fair amount of dry air. Even with favorable shear conditions, I think they are going to have a difficult time turning into much other than big rain storms with the typical wind gusts that come with them.
That may happen too...and it still could slide w..wnw..and get better situated..but time will tell.
Hey StormW!Right now if this TROF doesn't take it out to sea it will probably get pushed back to the west.SST'S are plenty warm and nearly untouched across parts of the caribbean.
will 90l be a td at 11am or 5 pm today . looks whats behind 91L holding its own off africa . is there a deley in this sseason by 30 days hmmmmmmmmm
Omg... I didn't expect to see such title from Dr Masters Blog: Developing disturbance a threat to Puerto Rico. Really, by know I wasn't expecting anything, I thought we were safe but it doesn't look like it. I think 90L might become a tropical storm by the time it reaches Puerto Rico, and 91L could be a fishie major, or in worst case be pushed south by a High. Here... I am waiting for more news on 90L and see if the media here gives it a bit more of attention.
Wish we could get a fix on the center. But, I guess that will not happen until later tonite.
MC <------agrees, Rand. Looks like 90L is breaking up into two blobs like we've seen many times this year. The trough is pulling part of her out to sea; but, the rest looks WEST, for now at least.

Missing
90L does look split--- where is the center right now? Thelmores, can you draw a pic?

I think it's path (whether above or below Puerto Rico & Hispanola) Is going to depend on where the center decides to situate itself...
It appears that 90L is already calming down somewhat. Both 90L and 91L have some clockwise rotation around them as well as a fair amount of dry air


yep
Looks like that MC. I'll have to wait and see how this plays today.
Randrewl what is the POD??..LOL
The Over all size of this disturbance has grown over night and this morning.


Negative POD...sorry Bob!
My personal plan is to try and figure what this invest is up to and which direction it wants to go!
Ok Rand..LOL The center may be between those two areas of convection.
That's right where it looks to be to me also Bob.
Overall its more favorable today because of the relaxing shear and the size. Size matters:)
Well let me get back work. Have fun. Hur23, when your ready I am waiting for you honey:) Catch ya later!!
hmmm 90l looks like, if it stays south enough, that it might take a path very similar to Wilmas, which coincidently, formed almost the same time last year. if it misses this trough and high pressure keeps it on a westward motion, the next trough could pick it up and slam it into s florida or cuba. SST are still very warm here, in the ft myers area the gulf temp is still in the low to mid 80's
LOL...size does matter here. I just hope that center doesn't try and form down under that southern blob.
...water vapor shows the split, too...and the move west. (wasn't that pin-hole eye in the blob going to the Carib last nite?)...where's Taz when you need him...lol, have a gmorning yall, check in with you soon.
SomeonesLink stealing the Bandwidth...
twc calls it a open wave looks like we have to wait till 5pm to see if it makes to a td
Stormw-Right now shear is 10-15kts across the caribbean and will probably stay that way for the next couple of days.The 850-200 from the nogaps is showing pretty favorable conditions across the caribbean out to 144hrs.I'll get back to u in minute on the GFS.I think the MJO Pulse might have something to do with this if the nogaps verifys.
I yiy,yie...Mr Mojo..Rising.....Get yer Mojo Rising!
Well it sure looks like an open wave right now. Depends on what the circulation wants to do.
The Runs shows something near Panama..moving NW,Link..thats it
An about face from the NHC!!!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121500
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER-ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THUS... THE CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IS DECREASING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 10 TO 15
MPH.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
the 850 Vorticity FSU on crack again too...Link
No development according to the NHC @ 1130am.
We updated now..LOL...
LOL....
Low pressure in Texas to slide the only way it can..SLinke into the GOM...
Its a pretty hard shift from the 5:30 this morning...
Good call Rand!! Hard to find center=no development. At least right now.
..Life in the BLOB lane..surely make ya lose yer mind....
Playing the GOM ,Hybrid table..Thank you...Bigger Stakes..
It will be interesting to see if anything is left of 90L by the end of the day Bob.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 3:08 PM GMT on October 12, 2006.

Gulfscotsman i already posted the 11:30

Posted By: hurricane23 at 3:08 PM GMT on October 12, 2006.

No development according to the NHC @ 1130am.


you've got to love that modify button
Well, I guess Hur23 can change back to no development like last night, like a good reporter does!..LOL
now that we have this update...i'm going back through all my old posts and changing them to....watch the 11 update..it will show that 90l chances are decreasing...remember..it's not what you say..but how you look....and i look...mahvelous
The NAM..Link
hello again

well, this morning I told you all that 90L was not impressive and that a dramatic collapse of it was likely in the offing.
That seems to be materialisng with every sat frame we see. It may well be gone by 5 pm today other than the remnant wave
Hmmmmmmmmm?...Link
Whatever circulation there is is in there somewhere.




Gee Grandma?..What could that be?...
When models are widely divergent, might they all be right, the top half goes one way & the bottom half goes the other way?
Thats called a KINK in the Cradle when that Happens...
Yeah Storm...I wouldn't be surprised to see a shift.
This one youll Like Rand..Link
Ok Kman, we will mark that down. Thank you.

weatherguy

just in case it doesn't go that way I have a few crows standing by LOL
Pat...does that show I'm getting some rain?
9ol just got blown away gone with the wind
Wow...A TS formation alert has been issued by NRL.
104. MahFL
Bummer, now the NHC says 90L won't develop :(.
I hear ya Kman!!..LOL
what do you mean stormybill the shear took over
The Front last 12 hours..Link
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121500
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER-ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THUS... THE CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IS DECREASING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 10 TO 15
MPH.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

It's balming out.
TapsLink for 90L...
It might not be over yet....

Here is the text from the TCFA just issued...

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 121430Z OCT 06//
WTNT01 KNGU 121430
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 63.2W TO 20.0N 71.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 121200Z INDICATE THAT A
1009MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AT 16.5N 62.7W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS DERIVED 1056Z 12.5KM HIGH RESOLUTION
QUICKSCAT PASS AND LOCAL SHIP OBSERVATION. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE IN
A DIFLUENT PATTERN TO AID IN OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 29C FROM 121200Z OCT 06 SST FROM SHIP OBSERVATION IN VICINITY OF
DISTURBANCE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131430Z.//
looks like it miamiweather done

hey wahts nrl stand for ?
You still have 1 wish left...Link
whatever is ailing 90L seems to have also infected 91L
I'll stick with the NHC Hur23.
119. 0741
that not 90l link that is flag
Here Bob:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
I feel better now..LOL!
looks like the soutern part of 90l is entering the caribien it might wake up again as it goes west we have to wait and see interesting
ok now i am confusticated, and want to know who's on first....nhc says no go and these folks are saying it is possible to form...and our blog-buddies are saying it is splitting apart with some going fishing and some going wE$$$#$@^##$.....jo
NO POD!!...Link
There's a new twist on POD Bob...LMAO!
Here the link to the TCFA graphic issued for 90L....Click here
Jo...it's just total chaos!
Why don't they just fly into 90L? Its near the HH lift-off site?



if the gfdl is to be believed, seems PR is in for a close approach by "Joyce" at near hurricane force......
Yep Pilgrim...he's lookin...That way.
you are joking right thelmores
Hurricane Force?,,Thats crack talking.!.LOL


couple hours old, but if these windsat numbers are not rain contaminated, seem pretty impressive, and already support a TD certainly.....

"Posted By: stormybil
you are joking right thelmores"

I never joke..... just ask Rand and Gulfscot! LOL

did you not see my disclaimer.... and i quote.....

"if the gfdl is to be believed"........

do you believe the gfdl? LOL
LMAO!
the N Koreans has penetrated the GFDL,,its sure to have a skewed look...
it might have a chance if it goes west but if it goes nw no cchance anyone agree
Ya gotta Give Kim an "A" for Effort..LOL..Gulf.
does anyone have evidence that we have a closed circulation at the surface on 90L?

frankly, dont see it......
Scatt missed the area this morning Thel! Have to wait until this evening to tell!
thunder storms have deminished but it still has a small low ciculation. but chances for developement has deminished lots of dry air as per. local mets
I do see kind of a westward push out of the Southern Blob!
dang it to heck...and i thought i could wish 90l into existance.........gonna have to give it some winds....wshhhhhh...wshhhhhhhh...run in circles for a few minutes to close up the circulation......then.....and this is the hard part...push it west....
As big (especially N-S) as that thing is could it split and the two parts follow both paths described in Dr. Masters figure 1?
Push ricc push..PT that mother..LOL
The next worLinkry..
if St Kitts is where the supposed center of 90L is there is nothing going on there

Link
The GOM hybrid...Link
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters.
Snow flurries and 30 degrees in CHicago. Back to Boca Raton next week !
The Low over or Near San Diego ..is the system thats going to Pull the warmfront and Help Spin up the Texas/WesternGOM storm..I believe.Thats the impulse the Doc mentions.Link
This speeds it up some..Link
Wow!! I leave for about three hours and come back to find 90L history.

That didn't take long...
Only a weak pulse nash...
but the Koreans from the north took a wHooping!
Dr. Masters oughta change his blog heading to "90L a threat to nothing"
06 sure has been tough on the Carr & Atlantic...but..we needed a break..and thankfully..we got it.
Am not ready to say that for the GOM..with a chance still to bite someone...Wouldnt Be er..Prudent...@ this Juncture..Not Gonna do it...Hey,Hey..Nosiree...Gonna go ..Clear sum Brush....
Where did everyone go?
Dick Cheney an Entourage of C-17s now here at NEw Orleans International..
nash so we shouldn't worry about 90l anymore
whats talk about 91L
171. MTJax
Patrap, we should have the ETA for the Texas to GOM storm shortly.
91L also expiring

Death by multiple swirls, the bane of many systems this year
Doesn't look like it. Then again, we never had any reason to be worried about 90L anyways.
Listen in while ya surf and turf..Link
I am not worried about it but 90 is not dead
Fronts almost HERE!..Link
...sat image here makes look like 90L maybe could be something?

Link
Did GFDL drop 90L again at the 12z run???
One burst of convection and some have it turning into a TS within hours. LOL Take a look at the conditions around these last 2 blobs (90 and 91L) and you should be able to figure out why they have very little chance of being anything more than thunderstorms with some wind gusts.
53F in Shreveport..81F in New Orleans
Well, looks like GFDL drops both 90L and 91L.

Nothing to see here.
Come on front..push & dive a lil mo...Link
...k, just looked at wv, if visibles of 90L...and it looks sad, dispursed and disparaged...poor 'lil LB fellow...lol
Yep GFDL did drop it. That was the only thing that was keeping me from totally calling 90L dead. Now its officially done in my mind!! Oh and 91L, that was never a thought!
In the IR you can see the cold shallow surface flowLink moving into Texas and almost to Alexandria in La...
Death of 90L fro Geo-Orbit..prepare yerselves ..its ugly..Link
The other Ocean..Link
Pacific in motion..note the Hawiian Island invest sputtering..but still ticking..Link
189. MTJax
Let us take a moment while we wait for 1800Z runs, for an educational event regarding future chart reading:

wind barbs
As a matter of clarification, I am not calling the season dead. We still have at least 2 or 3 weeks to watch the Caribbean and Gulf. Conditions would have to change pretty fast for anything to occur, but as we have seen before, that can happen. I don't think it will happen, but know from past experience that it has in other seasons. I don't expect any tropical waves will be able to survive their journey across the Atlantic with anything left to cause trouble. I will be more comfortable when the ITCZ starts heading south.
NorthLinkwest Wind..
192. MTJax
The 2:05 TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER-ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO. THE CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA IS DECREASING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 10 TO 15
MPH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
WARMING UP. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FOUND 12N-22N BETWEEN 60W-64W. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST
THAT A NEW CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE FORMING FARTHER NORTH NEAR
22N65W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1010
SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N THIS
MORNING. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 22N. A 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
VERY CLOSE TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1ON14W 8N25W 8N34W 8N45W 10N60W
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-48W. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 10W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND AND
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA TO TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
THROUGH 27N90W TO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE FRI. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N80W...
28N83W 25N88W. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND IS APPROACHING NOW TO THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. A VERY LARGE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 20N98W COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA... CUBA...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
GIVING THE AREA DRY AIR AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN. THIS FRONT
PROMISES TO BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS OF THE U.S. THE FRONT WILL MODE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W
ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED CURRENTLY ALONG
64W...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY TROUGH SATURDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND.
THE RISK OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD SLIDES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL INCREASE. BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICS NEAR 16N58W COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
INCLUDES THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. UPPER DRY AIR DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE ITCZ AXIS. UNUSUAL LIGHT TRADE WINDS OF 10 KT DOMINATES THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED
WITH AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WLY
WIND FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N70W THEN
CONTINUES S INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICS NEAR 16N58W COVERING THE AREA FROM 48W-65W. UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 22/23W.
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS WESTERN AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 55W WITH A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
29N48W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
30W-41W AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 43W.

$$
GR



Man this season has be done for weeks. Cmon, nothing is gonna change. Yeah we may get alittle tease here and there the next week or two. But thats it folks.
Solar Wind..LOL..Linkfrom the west
Its Over..Link
The Hybrid cometh...Link
Weatherguy03, you are probably correct, but I gave up carving things in stone a long time ago. Too hard to erase. The older you get, the more mistakes you made remain in your memory (or what is left of it.) LOL
198. MTJax
The Texas/GOM event is scheduled to start 1800Z next Thursday. 1004MB LOW will move into GOM from south Texas.

This is Wednesday's fronts

6 day fronts
John Hope could have made it spin with his circular gestures on the map. RIP
See...mention a dead man and look what happens here?
Yeah GoofOff I am pretty conservative when it comes to forecasting, but not this time!!..LOL Hey, ya never know right?? Anything can happen.
Anything can happen...but it ain't happenin this afternoon!
203. IKE
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 1:06 PM CDT on October 12, 2006.

Man this season has be done for weeks. Cmon, nothing is gonna change. Yeah we may get alittle tease here and there the next week or two. But thats it folks.


Agree. It's over.........
I...THE KEEPER OF STORMS...THE KNOWER OF WEATHER..AND THE BEARER OF EXTREME FORECAST ABILLITIES....DECREES...THE FAT LADY HAS NOT YET SUNG...YOU NO STORM WISHCASTERS..PERK YOUR EARS AND LISTEN....TROUBLE IS OUTH THERE WITH A CAPITAL T....BREWIN...WAITIN...WESTERLY SHEAR WILL RELAX...PERSISTANT TROFFINESS..WILL DISSAPEAR..SUBSITANCE WILL BECOME FAMINE ( YEAH I KNOW..TOTALLY WENT WILD ON THAT ONE).DRY AIR..THE MOST INHIBITTING FACTOR OF 2006... WILL BECOME MOIST..AND A STORM....WHETHER A CAT FIVE..OR A TROPICAL WAVE...WILL WALK AMONG US...WHO CAN DEFY ME..I AM THE CASTER.....SPRINKLEBOTTOM
All I know 6PM better get here so I can be DONE with this day at work!!..LOL
I just wish the fat lady would either sing or get lost!
surely you don't mean......we shall see fruitition of coc-culation????? jo
208. IKE
U keep a lookin ricderr!

It's over...the fat lady has sung. The most boring and well deserved season I've seen since owning a computer. Not 1 his-a-cane in the GOM all season. Truly remarkable!
209. IKE
I predicted there would be 8 Atlantic storms. I wasn't that far off...9 so far. Probably 9 is it.

28 storms, including 1 unnamed subtropical storm, in 2005.

From 28 to 9.
IKE...YOU SHOULD TREMBLE AT MY TYPING..YOU SHOULD FACE WEST..AND SHOUT TO THE MECCAS....I AM NOT WORTHY..AND IF SPRINKLEBOTTOM SAYS IT'S NOT OVER...I WILL WORRY...WILL DREAD THE MORROW WHEN I MUST READ THE BLOGS AND SEE A CAT 5..OR WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AT MY DOORSTEP..OR A SHOWER..OR A MISALLIGNED SPRINKLER....SPRINKLEBOTTOM
sprinklebottom steals my heart....

as usual.
UTAH...I THANK YOU...YOU MAY BE THE FIRST OF MY GROUPIES...HOWEVER...AS EVER DILIGENT AS I AM STUDYING THE EFFECTS OF BUTTERFLIES AND TROPICAL FORMATION MOVEMENTS...I HAVE NO TIME FOR WORLDY AFFAIRS.....I HAVE CONSECRATED MY LIFE TO THE STUDY OF WEATHER AND BECUASE OF THAT...I AM AS GOOD AS I AM....SPRINKLEBOTTOM
What are we gonna do with all that left over heat?


the fat lady has spoken! LOL
IS 90L DEAD?
How about that for a center jump!
what are the exact position of th center of 90l?
I think 90L would have out jumped Shaq on that one!
don't know about dead, but if there is a circ, it is small.....

if i'm guessing, here is whats left.....



it could make a comeback, or it could go poof! :)
holy moses..... if thats 90L way up there..... well scratch my last post! LOL
222. MTJax
Dont mark off the season till the Texas/GOM thing next weekend
i've heard/ saw centers reform..... but thats rediculous! LOL
90L has reformed farther north. The NRL has repositioned the satellite images to the new circulation, which has a pressure of 1009mb and winds of 25kts:

Man...Sprinkle you are a fickle fella - here I have been standing up for you, defending you and waiting on the edge of my seat for your posts, someone younger comes along and you forget all about me!


here is the approx location the navy has given.....

all i can say is whatever! LOL
good dr. westcasting

westward by Sunday
Don't think that 90L really liked that dry air he saw in the Caribbean Sea - so he moved north - way north, that is.
This image from the NRL clearly shows the center of 90L, although the convection is all displaced to the east:



RIGHT IN THE CENTER OF THE IMAGE.
SADDLE...DO NOT BE DISCOURAGED......DO NOT BE DECEIVED..YOU CAN BE BY MY SIDE AS WE WATCH THE END OF THE SEASON TOGETHER....REGALLING IN THE TREACHOROUS SEAS CAUSED BY HIGH WINDS, SLASHING LIGHTNING, AND HOWLING WINDS OF YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM....OR WE CAN STAND UNDER THE WAYWARD SPRINKLER AND CALL IT THE SAME
231. MTJax
Based on the visible satelites, 90L is a big fog bank. Thats BFB which is below LB and BB
Well that would make it almost certain to get picked up and out by the trough! Good News!
well if 90L has relocated that far north ... it's not gonna stand a chance. i agree .. its dead already.
BFB ... true very true!
canned dead parrot ... nice stuff. warm up the grill!!
90L isn't dead - it's actually better defined (with a lower pressure) then ever before. But, I agree with many in here that it seems extremely unlikely that the recent winter-like weather pattern could produce a trough that would miss 90L, although Bermuda could feel something if 90L develops, but most likely not much (if anything at all).
agreed, 90L has a snowballs chance in hades! :D
wich track is tracking 90l the new center
yummy.....i love the smell of death, i mean degeneration of tropical cyclones
I don't think we've seen one like that this whole season Pulse.
look at the xtrap MODEL, hehehe
For sure Rand! That spider took a good beating too! A couple of the legs are astrewn across the Atlantic.
I didnt drop no roofing nails Did I?...
hm every time ppl say its dead
it dosent die?
Sure wait till rush hour to shut everything down - now that's planning!!
A new Life ..is coming ..Link
I haven't seen any posts about 91L. Has anyone noticed it? 91L
tropical cyclone formation alert on 90L
256. ryang
is there a 91l at 35 west
Gots some nice model consensus on 90L.... *Nods* mhmm... Pr'olly the best I've seen all season.
re" CybrTeddy at 8:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2006.

tropical cyclone formation alert on 90L"

gittouttahere......are we on candid camera or WHAT......jo
Heres all the INVEST...enjoy..Link
at least we have each other saddle...
HobeSoundShudders

actual when a track comes up on the screen
when u click 90L on the NRL it shows a track
its done it with
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
FLorence
Gordon
Helene
Issac
I think you have been fibbin pat....just got out of the truck..and the thingy/dingy said it was 91.....
Yeah - to quote my 14 year old - BFF! That's one I hear a lot these days. Took me a while to figure it out. Kids talk in acronyms these days - sometimes they're hard to understand.
HobeSoundShudders
PS u are soppost to put a post that u r commiting on in Italics
The Big Pic...Link
Well we can drive to Shreverport Rick..Link
oh when u say
gittouttahere
plz uses spaces and real words
besides i am in collage 19 getting a degree in weather and astronomy and by the way u r typing
you are the normal troll walching along i dont want
your opinion HobeSoundShudders i want good
opinions like from hurricane23 or MichealSTL
and a lot of other people not you
So, how sickly is 90L now?
never mind..LOL
Cyber is right about a TCFA:


Click for larger image

Interestingly, 90L has reformed to the north of Puetro Rico:

Here it is Rick..check out Sunday..GAMEDAY!...Link
Ok, apparently we have a TCF in place for 90L.

Odd.
275. 0741
their not thing left of 90l
U missed my 8:31gmt post Micheal..LOL
cool...I can see my house .
The box does include the area where 90L reformed!
90L may just go out to sea
or could do a Frances or a jeanne
if it follows the TCFA track then gas prices
up insurance bills up destructon up
THats posted for SHips..and Traffic...sea type..thats all..LOL
Barely but! Barely is good enough!
Yall Jonesing..BAd like...LOL
Well, I don't know why they are bothering to issue a TCF on this system when it is going to have its ass handed to it on several wooden hooking spoons from the shear.
The next system is to form ..Western GOm..but ya didnt hear it from me...
That TCF was there since this morning.
286. 0741
i donot think it did not make it so by by l90!!!!!!!!!
Huh 0741????
Sorry Rand, been busier than I like to be at work the last few weeks. Haven't been able to geek out all day like I prefer to do:-)
No problem. I just remember catching it when it was issued.
Yes we did Pat! We have heard it from you:-)

Looks to be non-tropical.
Lets go over it again..LOL..Heres the Global view...Pay Attention!..Sit Down in Back..!Link
292. 0741
we all kiss l90 byby and hurricane season the shear have taking over FOR GOOD
Neither was this Nash and it did 3 billion in damage in March 03..LOLLink
The next system is to form ..Western GOm..but ya didnt hear it from me...

I really doubt that anything will be able to form in the GOM, much less move into it and not be shredded by shear. Right now, the Caribbean is the most favorable area in the Atlantic and forecast to become more favorable. Link
I know the lack of storms to track this year has gotten me in a chippy mood. Today, one of my co-workers came to me and asked, "what's going on out there weatherman???"

I responded.... "Go outside and look!"
saddlegait, i dont ever hear that one from my 18yr BFF, come email me and tell me what it is. have you heard friends w/benefits yet??
Heres a better view..Link
nash - that was mean! They were giving you credit for knowing something and trying to make you feel good and you sliced them in two-shame on yourself!
Ok Michael..we shall c..LOL..
Well Pat, the shear will have to disappear like a fart in the wind for that hybrid system to have any serious impact.

But I feel ya. Could be a nasty day for someone...
Converstion in the Docs blog..begs to differ...
302. 0741
we all love shear
Nah, wasn't mean at all. I get asked this question DAILY, as a good natured ribbing for me leaving the company when I go to Tallahassee.
Beats throwing around Swirlies in the open.Atlantic.LOL..accept a real forecast challenge..somebody!..OMG,..
305. 0741
it raining here in miami
Its On the NAVY page!..It has a LLC!..Its trending west!...CAn I have the FSU page?...LOL...The situ is wet for the Northern GOM..thru Weds,...not just a Low...but needed rain for Many ...
Jeff Masters has posted a new blog guys.
1/2 a windsat pass of 90L
309. MTJax
The early LOW from Texas in the 36 hour range was canceled already. I think the model listed has old data because the forcast charts have dropped it. Gonna get Wet in Texas but the real BB appears in the GOM by TX next Thusday at 1800z with a 1004 LOW.