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Caribbean disturbance 94L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2010

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a slow increase in thunderstorm activity and organization this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, and the activity is showing signs of organization, with a large curved band to the west, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. There is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L until landfall. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update doc!
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Doc!
The Islands needs to watch currently near 10N 49W, Strong 850mb Vorticity and good Vorticity at all levels. Also has some Convergence Starting.

Thanks Doc :)
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Islands needs to watch currently near 10N 49W, Strong 850mb Vorticity and good Vorticity at all levels. Also has some Convergence Starting.


Looks ominous, needs to be watched well.
Thanks for the update... Was wondering if this could be the second busiest season since records were kept...

GOOD MORNING all!
yes Tampa i made mention earlier on on this strong tropical wave so late in the season. you are quuite right the islands have to watch it very closely. the CMC has it as a low close to the islands on tuesday
Wow...This needs to go away now...The kids are out of school for a week starting next Friday...A week with the kids stuck inside wouldn't be good for anyone...
For anyone still interested about my Songs for Haiti program (see my blog), here are a collection of sample titles in French of the lyrics that are yet to be written. Submissions are welcome in English, French, Haitian Creole, Spanish or Latin, but please make sure they rhyme.

On a suffirent en silence
La prochaine vie
Souvenir
La rue en avant
Survivants ou victimes
L’ouragan
Le nouveau monde
Des ruinés chorales
Le grand faim
Séquelle de les désespéras
Le toit et le tenon
Eau
Béni soit l’Éternel
Orage sur l’horizon
Les étoiles brillantes
L’unité de l’esprit
Une cité détruit
L’école et l’hôpital
Job
Restauration
Toujours courageux
L’espoir
Demain
Pas de kolgat
Un crayon
La tente de vie
Le clair loin
Il était là et voilà
Voir sur la distance
Les inspirations
Astro -

I see you are a poet
and just didn't know it.


About the extent of my rythming ability...
Thanks Dr. Masters..
Quoting Dakster:
Astro -

I see you are a poet
and just didn't know it.


About the extent of my rythming ability...


I suppose I could turn non-rhyming lyrics into rhyming schemes.
Quoting Orcasystems:

Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


That 94L has a huge anticyclone over it...more flooding for areas already devastated by the outer rainbands of TD Tomas.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That 94L has a huge anticyclone over it...more flooding for areas already devastated by the outer rainbands of TD Tomas.


I just don't think it has enough room left to become much.
18. IKE
NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. ...

It's actually 30%.
much ado about nothing
its almost time to pack it in and move on to winter
21. IKE
16 days...
13 hours...
38 minutes and it's over...
Is that EST or CST ?


Just 198 days, 7 hours, and 23 minutes until hurricane season 2011 gets underway! :-)
Astro - lol...

Neo - I see the glass is always half full for you.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just 198 days, 7 hours, and 23 minutes until hurricane season 2011 gets underway! :-)


rofl. yeah, this one's about to wrap.
Quoting Chicklit:


rofl. yeah, this one's about to wrap.
5 more days and we will have models for whats left which appears not much
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just 198 days, 7 hours, and 23 minutes until hurricane season 2011 gets underway! :-)


Your still just a little ray of sunshine on this rainy day :)

EDIT: You gotta love seeing things like this :)

This blog's author or an administrator has banned you from this Wunder Blog. The ban is in effect for the next 12100 hours.

WunderBlogAdmin has left you a message related to this ban: Off-topic.
snowing yet big fish
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:

I think the low level swirl can be picked out easy on visible at around 11.5N/77.5W, but looks like a more NW/N drift to me at the moment
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
snowing yet big fish


No, but it is wet out... nothing new for this time of year. You will get snow long before we do :) if we do.....
Quoting stormpetrol:

I think the low level swirl can be picked out easy on visible at around 11.5N/77.5W, but looks like a more NW/N drift to me at the moment
too much dry air nw best to go west move over land and end it
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your still just a little ray of sunshine on this rainy day :)

EDIT: You gotta love seeing things like this :)

This blog's author or an administrator has banned you from this Wunder Blog. The ban is in effect for the next 12100 hours.

WunderBlogAdmin has left you a message related to this ban: Off-topic.


That is quite a bit of time there Orca. Was that you?

It's only around 505 days. Just time to see the end of hurricane season 2011.
Quoting Orcasystems:


No, but it is wet out... nothing new for this time of year. You will get snow long before we do :) if we do.....
looks like a lot of wet for you this week

Today Rain changing to periods of drizzle this morning. High 10. Tonight Cloudy with 60 percent chance of drizzle. Low 7. Monday Showers. Becoming windy early in the evening. High 11. Tuesday Cloudy. Low 6. High 11. Wednesday Rain. Low 7. High 11. Thursday Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. High 10. Friday Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 3. High 7. Saturday Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 3. High 7.
I got one for 13,000 Hours and well...

I sent it to da recycle Banned Bin.
here is mine still no snow but getting cool

Today A few showers ending this afternoon then cloudy. Wind becoming west 20 km/h late this afternoon. High 11. Tonight Clearing this evening. Wind west 20 km/h becoming light late this evening. Low plus 1. Monday Sunny with cloudy periods. Wind becoming southwest 20 km/h early in the afternoon. High 11. Tuesday Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. High 10. Wednesday Periods of rain. Windy. Low 8. High 10. Thursday Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Windy. Low plus 1. High plus 5. Friday A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 1. High plus 3. Saturday Cloudy. Low minus 1. High plus 4.
Does it appear that the system has reformed farther to the north and east of where it was originally plotted? That burst of convection north of where the original plot is, is odd.

Lately alot of storms have been forming in that exact area, it seems odd that systems are forming in area that is systematically dead to storms this time of year.
i got one from admin for 11500 hrs for bad comments in chat iam like ok that was yesterday have not had it happen since last night yet today
What do you have on weather in the NE later on this week?
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What do you have on weather in the NE later on this week?
here is latest gfs 850 and surface precip


Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What do you have on weather in the NE later on this week?


Cool...Cold.

Rainy...Snowy.
I think it separated into two blobs there is definitely 94L and something completely different that spawned NE of it
Call me crazy but I think there's a shot that 94L develops today and we have a TD by 11PM tonight.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Call me crazy but I think there's a shot that 94L develops today and we have a TD by 11PM tonight.


Umm ok, I'll bite... your crazy.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i got one from admin for 11500 hrs for bad comments in chat iam like ok that was yesterday have not had it happen since last night yet today
LOL. I got one came up last night for 12,000 hours for the same thing but when I refreshed it was gone.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Afternoon y'all

Just on a quick fly by to say Hello to the Gator Nation, from the Palmetto State ;) Spurrier, Lattimore, and the Gamecocks earned themselves a replay date with Cam in the dome.

I see 94 is headed westward...

<--------
GASP!!!!
The weather network website obviously is having major problems... their computer is FUBAR on Nov 26 & 28. I have no idea what that funny shaped white thingie is coming out of the clouds..but it does not look like rain.
looks like our sun is picking up with solar activity with more on the left to come into the picture interesting considering a while ago there was nothing is this the sign for building activity
56. 7544
new area to watch just south of hati today ?
Quoting 7544:
new area to watch just south of hati today ?

Trouble brewing in the Caribbean!!
I think we might see 60% for 94L at 7pm.
San Andres, CO (Airport)
Updated: 36 min 19 sec ago
28 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 22 °C
Wind: 17 km/h / 4.6 m/s from the North

Pressure: 1012 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 31 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds: Few 670 m
Mostly Cloudy 2743 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 2 m



Panama, PM (Airport)
Updated: 40 min 16 sec ago
27 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 23 °C
Wind: 9 km/h / 2.6 m/s from the NW

Pressure: 1013 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 30 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 487 m
Mostly Cloudy 2438 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 m

Cartagena, CO (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 11 sec ago
28 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 25 °C
Wind: 18 km/h / 5.1 m/s from the SSW

Pressure: 1011 hPa (Rising)
Heat Index: 33 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 457 m
Mostly Cloudy 2133 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1 m

I think we have a closed low with 94L from the above observations I posted closest to the COC at 11.8N/79.2W by best guesstimate drifting WNW/NW
Suns out! Woot! Howdy from Bonaire.
San Andres, CO (Airport) Lat/Lon: 13.4° N 81.3° W
Updated: 47 min 51 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
82 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the North
Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think we have a closed low with 94L from the above observations I posted closest to the COC at 11.8N/79.2W by best guesstimate drifting WNW/NW

ATCF just out says 11.9N/78.3W. Still at 20 knots/1009mb...

AL, 94, 2010111418, , BEST, 0, 119N, 783W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting Neapolitan:

ATCF just out says 11.9N/78.3W. Still at 20 knots/1009mb...

AL, 94, 2010111418, , BEST, 0, 119N, 783W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Not too bad even if I have to say so myself;), just off by a degree anywhere you slice it!!
Quoting Neapolitan:

ATCF just out says 11.9N/78.3W. Still at 20 knots/1009mb...

AL, 94, 2010111418, , BEST, 0, 119N, 783W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Still at 25mph? Dang. I thought it would be at 30mph by now.
Pretty good Model consensus for the most part:



Slowly getting better organized. Vorticity at the 850mb level has been improving throughout the day, and as opposed to yesterday, is vertically stacked through 500mb.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Slowly getting better organized. Vorticity at the 850mb level has been improving throughout the day, and as opposed to yesterday, is vertically stacked through 500mb.


Did that blob of clouds southeast of Jamaica split from 94L? Or is it something else?
...anybody here?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...anybody here?
Everyone is tired of TCs in the South West Caribbean! LOL
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...anybody here?


Yep. Whats up?

BTW 94L becoming better organized..
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...anybody here?


nope

wow 94L looks amazing TD tomorrow I think
This morning's ASCAT pass:

94L needs a closed circulation 1st lol
Quoting Orcasystems:
GASP!!!!
The weather network website obviously is having major problems... their computer is FUBAR on Nov 26 & 28. I have no idea what that funny shaped white thingie is coming out of the clouds..but it does not look like rain.


Ahh, don't worry about it. GFS is giving my location roughly 14 INCHES (36 cm) of FUBAR by the end of that forecast period. But, I didn't know that TWN had that 14-day high AND low temp forecast graphical trend feature! :)
Quoting Drakoen:
Pretty good Model consensus for the most part:





Looks like a landfall in northeastern Nicaragua in 3 days.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Slowly getting better organized. Vorticity at the 850mb level has been improving throughout the day, and as opposed to yesterday, is vertically stacked through 500mb.



That's an enormous system and a tremendous potential for major flooding. Also watch that Texas Low near Brownsville, as it could bring Southern Ontario a significant (3 - 10 inch) snowstorm around Nov. 17.
All the talk here is about the reversal. Definitely stirring things up. The waves here from Tomas were crazy apparently.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep. Whats up?

BTW 94L becoming better organized..

I thought I put too many people on ignore lol.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That's an enormous system and a tremendous potential for major flooding. Also watch that Texas Low near Brownsville, as it could bring Southern Ontario a significant (3 - 10 inch) snowstorm around Nov. 17.
no snow astro but some rain for sure
hey guys 94L may relocate further east near where the strongest vort at 850 is and I think it will not follow the models and maybe go the other way maybe following tracks like paloma
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys 94L may relocate further east near where the strongest vort at 850 is and I think it will not follow the models and maybe go the other way maybe following tracks like paloma


Is this true?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys 94L may relocate further east near where the strongest vort at 850 is and I think it will not follow the models and maybe go the other way maybe following tracks like paloma

Was thinking the same thing if it stays stationary or moves/meander slowly the more chance of it getting pulled northward, I think we should watch it closely might might be a late surprise yet! I think the odds are up to 50-60% at 7 pm and a TD tomorrow, jmo though.
94L is moving NW.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Was thinking the same thing if it stays stationary or moves/meander slowly the more chance of it getting pulled northward, I think we should watch it closely might might be a late surprise yet! I think the odds are up to 50-60% at 7 pm and a TD tomorrow, jmo though.
I see that possibility but don't you see shear and dry air a big factor if it does head more northward towards you guys?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys 94L may relocate further east near where the strongest vort at 850 is and I think it will not follow the models and maybe go the other way maybe following tracks like paloma
Looks like 11.5 77.8 For new reformed center.
GO DOLPHINS!!!
12.1N/80W 94L ???
AL, 94, 2010111412, 115N, 778W, 20, 1009, DB
AL, 94, 2010111418, 119N, 783W, 20, 1009, DB
Quoting outlookchkr:
I see that possibility but don't you see shear and dry air a big factor if it does head more northward towards you guys?

Depends! see map posted above!
Quoting hurricaneeye:


Is this true?


Notice he said "may relocate further east ", in good form. His opinion. Nobody can say if it's true or not yet.
102. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH
A LOW CENTER OF 1009 MB NEAR 12N78W WILL MOVE SLOWLY W TO WNW
THROUGH THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN THU INTO FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. LARGE LONG
PERIOD N SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

the W coast will be seeing the 1st real snow of the seasone all so the snow levels in WA and OR will be down too about sea level
there's another little thing going on @ south of Haiti???
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think we might see 60% for 94L at 7pm.


very possible but my guess 40-50% some were in there
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
there's another little thing going on @ south of Haiti???


i think that is some convection that has broken loose from 94L i dont think we have to worry about that
107. IKE
Maybe it's about finished in 2010.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting IKE:
Maybe it's about finished in 2010.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


ohhhh well
Still, if 2010's over we cranked out 19-12-5. That's higher than CSU's predictions and on the high end of NOAA's August predictions. That's higher than my prediction of 17 in May - October. We saw 11 named storms make a landfall, even more directly effected land. We saw 2 simultaneousness Category 4 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes at once. We even saw 2 hurricanes at once in Late October, we witnessed a Category 2 in June, we saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the EATL.. a Category 4. We saw Paula become an invest to a Hurricane in 12 hours, we saw Karl bring devastation to Mexico and Tomas to the islands. IIRC Belize got hit 3 times by named storms. We saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the BOC, Karl.

True, the USA didn't get hit by a hurricane but that's pretty much overshadowed by everything else in my opinion.
Dang... That TWO killed the blog
Wow! 20% Yeppe!so much for my 50-60% , Good news!
still never ceases to amaze me the cherry picking
Missed this when it came out..


Atmospheric River Slams Northern California
Released: 10/15/2009 4:59:26 PM


As people in northern California begin to assess damage from the high winds and heavy rain of October 13 and 14, they may wonder what hit them. The answer, according to Dave Reynolds, meteorologist-in-charge at NOAA's National Weather Service forecast office in Monterey, was an "atmospheric river," the meteorological phenomenon that draws water vapor from the Pacific Ocean near the equator and transports it to the U.S. West Coast with firehose-like ferocity.

Atmospheric Rivers, or “ARs,” are technically associated with cyclones,” says Dr. Marty Ralph, Research Meteorologist at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder. "Although these cyclones are not of the iconic circular pattern commonly associated with hurricanes, they do include hurricane-strength winds and can yield rainfall comparable to that of hurricanes. The ARs in these cyclones are regions where low-altitude winds transport huge amounts of water vapor up against the mountains, which wrings out extreme rainfall." The AR this week produced a remarkable 21 inches of rain in just one day in the mountains near Big Sur, and winds that exceeded hurricane force.

While the atmospheric river that hit central California on October 13 and 14 was large, breaking some daily rainfall records and streamflow records for this time of year on several California creeks and rivers, including the Salinas River, the Russian River, and the Merced River, according to USGS Research Hydrologist, Dr. Michael Dettinger, in many cases, the results can be much larger, especially later in the winter. Nonetheless, this AR would have been notably long and strong any time of year.

For weather experts, storms this large always bring to mind the historically massive storms that impacted both northern and southern California in 1861 and 1862, flooding the Central Valley of California, obliterating at least one community in southern California, and causing the state capital to me moved from Sacramento to San Francisco. According to scientists, storms of this magnitude will eventually happen again. more here
Evening All!

We got about a tenth of rain today, 80% tomorrow. We need it. Other than the fact that I have to work in it on a monday:(
Cyberteddy..Can you explain why the United States didnt get hit by any hurricanes this hurricane season? Isnt a neutral ENSO more favorable than El Nino or La Nina and if it is why is it so?
I still say model guidance is good, but too many including the experts hang their hats just a lill too much on them
Quoting troy1993:
Cyberteddy..Can you explain why the United States didnt get hit by any hurricanes this hurricane season? Isnt a neutral ENSO more favorable than El Nino or La Nina and if it is why is it so?


Teddy, I'll take this one! lol

Luck!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still, if 2010's over we cranked out 19-12-5. That's higher than CSU's predictions and on the high end of NOAA's August predictions. That's higher than my prediction of 17 in May - October. We saw 11 named storms make a landfall, even more directly effected land. We saw 2 simultaneousness Category 4 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes at once. We even saw 2 hurricanes at once in Late October, we witnessed a Category 2 in June, we saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the EATL.. a Category 4. We saw Paula become an invest to a Hurricane in 12 hours, we saw Karl bring devastation to Mexico and Tomas to the islands. IIRC Belize got hit 3 times by named storms. We saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the BOC, Karl.

True, the USA didn't get hit by a hurricane but that's pretty much overshadowed by everything else in my opinion.

Excellent synopsis, Teddy. It's been an incredible season--and it may very well not be over just yet...
I can see why the probabilities have been lowered. Convection has decreased and shows no sign of reviving. Convection could revive later tonight of course. I think that if 94L is going to develop, convection will have to revive later tonight.
Is anyone having a problem getting to the SPC and any other NOAA sites?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
.....


Excellent summary... I just saved it for future reference to 2010 Season...
Quoting Skyepony:
Missed this when it came out..


Atmospheric River Slams Northern California
Released: 10/15/2009 4:59:26 PM


...... more here


Excellent info...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent synopsis, Teddy. It's been an incredible season--and it may very well not be over just yet...
There is enough moisture and warm water to keep things active for a while...
Wait just a sec isn't there an anti-cyclone and warm waters as well as at least a moderately moist environment. Stewart never says what factor is limiting development and if this was a high school debate he would have lost. What are the "environmental conditions" that are "less favorable"?
News in Yahoo Link
Chinese supercomputer named world's fastest

BEIJING (AFP) China overtook the United States at the head of the world of supercomputing on Sunday when a survey ranked one of its machines the fastest on the planet.

Tianhe-1, meaning Milky Way, achieved a computing speed of 2,570 trillion calculations per second, earning it the number one spot in the Top 500 (www.top500.org) survey of supercomputers.

The Jaguar computer at a US government facility in Tennessee, which had held the top spot, was ranked second with a speed of 1,750 trillion calculations per second.

Link
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Wait just a sec isn't there an anti-cyclone and warm waters as well as at least a moderately moist environment. Stewart never says what factor is limiting development and if this was a high school debate he would have lost. What are the "environmental conditions" that are "less favorable"?
This system will probably crank up and fall apart a few times before it becomes a T.D...Plenty of moisture around. We will see what happens with the next convective phase.
Quoting hydrus:
This system will probably crank up and fall apart a few times before it becomes a T.D...Plenty of moisture around. We will see what happens with the next convective phase.

I personally think we'll get a minimal ts like Katrina 99, however I understand conditions aren't perfect and that this is a disorganized storm that may not organize before landfall, however I'm annoyed that the NHC outlook does not give any logical input to support their claim
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Looks like a landfall in northeastern Nicaragua in 3 days.


Should I be watching this? Manning says it could be bad for NOLA
Quoting sunlinepr:
News in Yahoo Link
Chinese supercomputer named world's fastest

BEIJING (AFP) China overtook the United States at the head of the world of supercomputing on Sunday when a survey ranked one of its machines the fastest on the planet.

Tianhe-1, meaning Milky Way, achieved a computing speed of 2,570 trillion calculations per second, earning it the number one spot in the Top 500 (www.top500.org) survey of supercomputers.

The Jaguar computer at a US government facility in Tennessee, which had held the top spot, was ranked second with a speed of 1,750 trillion calculations per second.

Link

not weather related...
Quoting doabarrelroll:

not weather related...


Considering not much is happening in the weather department I would assume posting that is fine.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I personally think we'll get a minimal ts like Katrina 99, however I understand conditions aren't perfect and that this is a disorganized storm that may not organize before landfall, however I'm annoyed that the NHC outlook does not give any logical input to support their claim
Things are rather slow right now..They might start issuing advisories that are not quite as vague as some I noticed earlier in the season. I do believe they are doing more than what is required of them.
Quoting doabarrelroll:

not weather related...


I think it is.....
Computer Science and technology moves Weather Satellites and all our models...

Weather Forecasting - The Role Of Computers In Weather Forecasting

Read more: Weather Forecasting - The Role Of Computers In Weather Forecasting - Time, Equations, Calculations, Complete, Skill, and Percent

http://science.jrank.org/pages/7337/Weather-Forecasting-role-computers-in-weather-forecasting.html# ixzz15JSm7znE
Quoting Jeff9641:


Considering not much is happening in the weather department I would assume posting that is fine.
This post is not about weather either. YOU just HAD to get your 2 cents in didnt ya?.?Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Rules of the Road — How to ignore a blogger - I swear I am just kidding Jeff..This is my attempt at humor this evening..Stomping onions so to speak..:)
Quoting sunlinepr:



I think it is.....
Computer Science and technology moves Weather Satellites and all our models...

Weather Forecasting - The Role Of Computers In Weather Forecasting

Read more: Weather Forecasting - The Role Of Computers In Weather Forecasting - Time, Equations, Calculations, Complete, Skill, and Percent

http://science.jrank.org/pages/7337/Weather-Forecasting-role-computers-in-weather-forecasting.html# ixzz15JSm7znE



This is just one article from many available... Even in Noaa you'll find them
Quoting troy1993:
Cyberteddy..Can you explain why the United States didnt get hit by any hurricanes this hurricane season? Isnt a neutral ENSO more favorable than El Nino or La Nina and if it is why is it so?


Because the Bermuda High had a persistent weakness from 65-75W nearly all season (with the exception of perhaps late June throughout July). Each time it tried to push farther westward, persistent 500 mb troughing pushed it back to the east.

As to your question about neutral conditions being more favorable, that's really only for landfalls.
Quoting doabarrelroll:

not weather related...


Supercomputing for a Changing Planet: Simulation and Climate Change


Of course, there are many non weather-related uses as well.
"In fact, computer simulation is one of the few tools available to scientists and policy makers for understanding climate change. Numerical models allow us to validate our evolving understanding of the mechanisms of climate change, but the models are so complex that ordinary computers will not suffice. This is precisely the kind of challenge that supercomputers were designed to address, and supercomputing is a vital part of the climate science tool chest. "
Despite NHC's latest TropicalWeatherOutlook "Environmental conditions have become less favorable
...and development of this disturbance...if any...should be slow to occur
", 94L has changed
from the 20knot 1009millibar Disturbance (20, 1009, DB) of the preceding 72hours
into a 20knot 1008millibar Low (20, 1008, LO) as of the latest ATCF report.

Which makes now a good time to post a map of 94L's positions over the last 78hours

which I obtained by copying&pasting 11.3n74.5w, 11.2n75.0w, 11.2n75.4w, 11.1n75.8w, 11.1n76.2w, 11.1n76.5w, 11.1n76.7w, 11.1n76.8w, 11.1n76.9w, 11.1n77.0w, 11.2n77.3w, 11.5n77.8w, 11.9n78.3w, 12.2n78.6w, gja, adz, pva, baq into the GreatCircleMapper
Quoting hydrus:
This post is not about weather either. YOU just HAD to get your 2 cents in didnt ya?.?Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Rules of the Road — How to ignore a blogger - I swear I am just kidding Jeff..This is my attempt at humor this evening..Stomping onions so to speak..:)




Stomping onions? What weird, old-timey custom is this?

How are ya this fine evening?
Depending on weather conditions, satellites will be able to capture your city lights...

NASA photos: Cities at night
Link

Also depending on your weather and city lights, you will be able to enjoy the night sky...

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Stomping onions? What weird, old-timey custom is this?

How are ya this fine evening?
Ovid and I always discussed the (weird) weather that occurs over the Mediterranean Sea. When I said he was wrong, he accused me of stomping on his onions...Food was scarce.:)
Quoting hydrus:
Ovid and I always discussed the (weird) weather that occurs over the Mediterranean Sea. When I said he was wrong, he accused me of stomping on his onions...Food was scarce.:)



Ah, an interesting analogy. I surmise that the onions were still in the ground. I would think it a difficult task otherwise. Slippery devils.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Ah, an interesting analogy. I surmise that the onions were still in the ground. I would think it a difficult task otherwise. Slippery devils.


Onions that would be my specialty. Evening all, I'm Grillin, Canevets wife. How would you like the onions. Chopped or diced.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Supercomputing for a Changing Planet: Simulation and Climate Change


Of course, there are many non weather-related uses as well.
"In fact, computer simulation is one of the few tools available to scientists and policy makers for understanding climate change. Numerical models allow us to validate our evolving understanding of the mechanisms of climate change, but the models are so complex that ordinary computers will not suffice. This is precisely the kind of challenge that supercomputers were designed to address, and supercomputing is a vital part of the climate science tool chest. "
Actually going to SC10 on Tuesday...should be fun.
Does anyone know a source for wave/surf forecast in Bonaire? Aruba seems to get even worse tomorrow, but Bonaire is a bit more protected. Things are really stirred up here.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Wait just a sec isn't there an anti-cyclone and warm waters as well as at least a moderately moist environment. Stewart never says what factor is limiting development and if this was a high school debate he would have lost. What are the "environmental conditions" that are "less favorable"?


They have an out:

NHC Text Product Descriptions

"The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development out to 48 hours. It includes (when possible) a nontechnical explanation of the meteorology behind the outlook.


Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone know a source for wave/surf forecast in Bonaire? Aruba seems to get even worse tomorrow, but Bonaire is a bit more protected. Things are really stirred up here.





Click to enlarge
Quoting GrillinInTheEye:


Onions that would be my specialty. Evening all, I'm Grillin, Canevets wife. How would you like the onions. Chopped or diced.


Either will do. In My Onion, opinions are best served with a grain of salt.
Hey! Where's PrivateIdaho? maybe he could answer this question....It's true that, at least in PR, people is talking about a weather controller antenna that are located in Canada, USA and one in Lajas, PR? I think they named it as H.A.A.R.P.
H.A.A.R.P. = High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program
155. beell
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


They have an out:

NHC Text Product Descriptions

"The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development out to 48 hours. It includes (when possible) a nontechnical explanation of the meteorology behind the outlook.




How about a general lack of instability?

18-20° temp/dewpoint spreads around the Caribbean. And some warm mid-level temps.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Either will do. In My Onion, opinions are best served with a grain of salt.


I agree. Been lurking around for a while. I take everything with a grain of salt. Kosher or Sea salt. Which ever is at close at hand.
Quoting beell:


How about a general lack of instability?

18-20° temp/dewpoint spreads around the Caribbean. And some warm mid-level temps.


Um - is that your version of the oh-so-crucial missing reasoning, or what you think they should have said?
158. beell
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Um - is that your version of the oh-so-crucial missing reasoning, or what you think they should have said?


Um, just a thought or two. No big deal.
Quoting beell:


Um, just a thought or two. No big deal.
Like the avatar, Beell. lmao
160. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
Like the avatar, Beell. lmao


LOL, It was my original avatar way back. It was not approved. Took a fit the other night and resubmitted. Admin granted my wish!
Watching "Storm Busting Myths" on Myth Busters.. what a hoot.
Quoting beell:


Um, just a thought or two. No big deal.


Cool. It sounds reasonable to me.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Ah, an interesting analogy. I surmise that the onions were still in the ground. I would think it a difficult task otherwise. Slippery devils.
There is a certain skillset one can acquire to quickly and easily stomp them into oblivion. However, this is a weather related blog. Another blog that has mentoring on such a matter may exist in cyberspace and should be sought by one or all of the search engines available to you via your computer terminal....Looks rather tranquil out ther..
Quoting GrillinInTheEye:


Onions that would be my specialty. Evening all, I'm Grillin, Canevets wife. How would you like the onions. Chopped or diced.
Surprise us...:).............................. very benign looking invest...For now..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still, if 2010's over we cranked out 19-12-5. That's higher than CSU's predictions and on the high end of NOAA's August predictions. That's higher than my prediction of 17 in May - October. We saw 11 named storms make a landfall, even more directly effected land. We saw 2 simultaneousness Category 4 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes at once. We even saw 2 hurricanes at once in Late October, we witnessed a Category 2 in June, we saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the EATL.. a Category 4. We saw Paula become an invest to a Hurricane in 12 hours, we saw Karl bring devastation to Mexico and Tomas to the islands. IIRC Belize got hit 3 times by named storms. We saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the BOC, Karl.

True, the USA didn't get hit by a hurricane but that's pretty much overshadowed by everything else in my opinion.


And, what is even more bizarre, as I've mentioned before, it seems Canada, between Earl and Igor, suffered more damage than the CONUS this season. Which should give everyone pause.
Sunlinepr~ Thanks & so was your supercomputer article..we wouldn't have all these models without them.

Troy~ La Niñas bring Highs that tend to set up farther west in the Atlantic. Storms tend to either recurve early or travel through the Caribbean. Also brings warmer winters for the SE reducing the chances of a late season storm being drawn up over FL. I had fully expected the Caribbean & possibly Bermuda to take the brunt this year.

ASCAT this morning on left, this evening on right..
Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone know a source for wave/surf forecast in Bonaire? Aruba seems to get even worse tomorrow, but Bonaire is a bit more protected. Things are really stirred up here.


Click on the buoys in the map for forecast... We use this link everytime we go surfing here in PR...


Link

You have a Rincon.... Our Rincon is the Surf. Capital of PR....
Check these photos.... from yesterday

Link
15 days to close the season....
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
Hey! Where's PrivateIdaho? maybe he could answer this question....It's true that, at least in PR, people is talking about a weather controller antenna that are located in Canada, USA and one in Lajas, PR? I think they named it as H.A.A.R.P.
You rang? lol...Not familiar with HAARP. Out side my area of expertise.
Test
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
H.A.A.R.P. = High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program


There are a lot of links related to project HAARP.... some believe that it's used for Weather manipulation, because it can heat a 400x400 sq. mile area in the ionosphere and create a high pressure area that can deviate storms, cold fronts etc.
Also some Scandinavian countries are building a more potent antenna than the one in Alaska....

You will find many in pro and oppositors to this subject.... on the Internet

From Wikipedia:
Project HARP, The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) is an ionospheric research program jointly funded by the US Air Force, the US Navy, the University of Alaska and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).[1] Its purpose is to analyze the ionosphere and investigate the potential for developing ionospheric enhancement technology for radio communications and surveillance purposes (such as missile detection).[2] The HAARP program operates a major Arctic facility, known as the HAARP Research Station, on an Air Force owned site near Gakona, Alaska.
Quoting sunlinepr:


There are a lot of links related to project HAARP.... some believe that it's used for Weather manipulation, because it can heat a 400x400 sq. mile area in the ionosphere and create a high pressure area that can deviate storms, cold fronts etc.
Also some Scandinavian countries are building a more potent antenna than the one in Alaska....

You will find many in pro and oppositors to this data.... on the Internet

Project HARP, The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) is an ionospheric research program jointly funded by the US Air Force, the US Navy, the University of Alaska and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).[1] Its purpose is to analyze the ionosphere and investigate the potential for developing ionospheric enhancement technology for radio communications and surveillance purposes (such as missile detection).[2] The HAARP program operates a major Arctic facility, known as the HAARP Research Station, on an Air Force owned site near Gakona, Alaska.
The DARPA funded research mission makes sense but the heating 4 hundred square miles of atmosphere would take a tremendous amout of energy..........seems far-fetched.
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
H.A.A.R.P. = High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program
we also have ultra zonic atomspheric wave generating systems as well as upper atomspheric super enhancing temp inversion flws and a spraying and seeding program for insurance companys to allow for seeding of storms before arriving over a high risk for claims areaas well weather modification its not as scary as it sounds
good evening everyone



how bout them Cowboys (:
looks pretty unstable


This is a photo of the HAARP facilities in Alaska

If you want to get more info. look in the internet.... Project HAARP or Weather manipulation...
You will find links in all colors...

If you like to study this highly controversial subject; read, educate and get to your own conclusion.....

One link considers HAARP as a warfare machine being developed by all SuperPowers....

Environmental warfare is defined as the intentional modification or manipulation of the natural ecology, such as climate and weather, earth systems such as the ionosphere, magnetosphere, tectonic plate system, and/or the triggering of seismic events (earthquakes) to cause intentional physical, economic, and psycho-social, and physical destruction to an intended target geophysical or population location, as part of strategic or tactical war." (Eco News)

You will even find weird links that say that Katrina was a man made Hurricane deviated on purpose to the N Orleans area, to create the oil crisis....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we also have ultra zonic atomspheric wave generating systems as well as upper atomspheric super enhancing temp inversion flws and a spraying and seeding program for insurance companys to allow for seeding of storms before arriving over a high risk for claims areaas well weather modification its not as scary as it sounds
Hi Keep! My two cents...We know more about human genomics than we do about weather...we might want to hold off on the whole weather mod thing 'till down-stream consequences can be accurately forecast.
Quoting tornadodude:
good evening everyone



how bout them Cowboys (:
Hey Dude! Cowboys looking good for the first time this season.
So...I'm confused....how does the ionosphere affect the weather?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Hey Dude! Cowboys looking good for the first time this season.


yeah no kidding! Lol

about time, that's all I have to say,

the power outage during the game was amusing
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we also have ultra zonic atomspheric wave generating systems as well as upper atomspheric super enhancing temp inversion flws and a spraying and seeding program for insurance companys to allow for seeding of storms before arriving over a high risk for claims areaas well weather modification its not as scary as it sounds


Here is a good link for you KOG, the comments section alone will keep you busy for days... and endless hours of absolute bewilderment.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
The DARPA funded research mission makes sense but the heating 4 hundred square miles of atmosphere would take a tremendous amout of energy..........seems far-fetched.


What they say is that you don't have to send so much energy to the ionosphere; The energy is there.... HAARP only stimulates that energy by concentrating microwave beams into it, creating the High pressure.... Well, thats what I've read, I ain't an expert.... I just know the basic info....
You gotta stop harpin on the ionosphere.
What we do really know, is that the desire to perform weather manipulation by the US and Russia is real.. Silver Iodide seeding was documented; used in Vietnam.
Even Dr. J. Masters has mentioned it...


Operation Popeye (Project Popeye/Motorpool/Intermediary-Compatriot) was a US military cloud seeding operation (running from March 20, 1967 until July 5, 1972) during the Vietnam war to extend the monsoon season over Laos, specifically areas of the Ho Chi Minh Trail. The operation seeded clouds with silver iodide, resulting in the targeted areas seeing an extension of the monsoon period an average of 30 to 45 days. As the continuous rainfall slowed down the truck traffic, it was considered relatively successful.[1] The 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron carried out the operation to "make mud, not war." [2]

The resultant rain and subsequent flooding of the nearby Song Con River is sometimes blamed for the move of POWs from the prison camp at Son Tay and therefore, the failure of Operation Ivory Coast.[3]
Photobucket

Maybe for military purposes an amplification of the ionosphere might interfere with electronics and possibly even disable some thing like an ICBM but I am not familiar with a connection between the ionsphere and weather.
It would be logic to conclude that

If we are researching and develping it; They are also researching and developing it

Weather modification will become a part of domestic and international security and could be done unilaterally... It could have offensive and defensive applications and even be used for deterrence purposes. The ability to generate precipitation, fog, and storms on earth or to modify space weather, ... and the production of artificial weather all are a part of an integrated set of technologies which can provide substantial increase in US, or degraded capability in an adversary, to achieve global awareness, reach, and power.
"The operation seeded clouds with silver iodide, resulting in the targeted areas seeing an extension of the monsoon period an average of 30 to 45 days".

IMAGINE extending the Hurricane season 30 days???

Well, back to local weather.....
Quoting sunlinepr:
It would be logic to conclude that

If we are researching and develping it; They are also researching and developing it

Weather modification will become a part of domestic and international security and could be done unilaterally... It could have offensive and defensive applications and even be used for deterrence purposes. The ability to generate precipitation, fog, and storms on earth or to modify space weather, ... and the production of artificial weather all are a part of an integrated set of technologies which can provide substantial increase in US, or degraded capability in an adversary, to achieve global awareness, reach, and power.
Or some PHD is b.s.ing DARPA to get funding to waste on a bad idea....(not that something like that would ever happen) :^)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Or some PHD is b.s.ing DARPA to get funding to waste on a bad idea....(not that something like that would ever happen) :^)


In this world affected by economies, anything is possible...
Seems like 94L, will be eventually heading WSW into CA...

Quoting beell:
Tropical thunderstorms affect space weather - By Robert Sanders, Media Relations/UC Berkely/September 2006


Good article.... interesting


Measurements made by NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite from March 20 to April 20, 2002, have confirmed that the dense zones exist in the plasma bands. Researchers now want to understand whether the effect changes with seasons or large events, like hurricanes.

The research was funded by NASA. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.



here ya go fish some snow
Nice Article! Thanks for posting. It says that the weather in the Troposhere affects the Ionosphere, not the other way around. I wonder if the affect is due to cloud-to-ionosphere lightning?
197. beell
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Nice Article! Thanks for posting. It says that the weather in the Troposhere affects the Ionosphere, not the other way around. I wonder if the affect is due to cloud-to-ionosphere lightning?


I'm guessing if there is a relationship an attempt at weather modification could be made. A backwards approach. It's over my head fer sure...
Good night people, I'm calling it a day. Buenas noches.
Another weather related subject is GPS... What about the EU gps satellites that are being placed in orbit?? More precise weather info??

Galileo is a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) currently being built by the European Union (EU) and European Space Agency (ESA). The €3.4 billion project is an alternative and a complement to the U.S. NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) and the Russian GLONASS.

Galileo was intended to provide more precise measurements than available through GPS or GLONASS (Galileo will be accurate down to the metre range) including the height (altitude) above sea level, and better positioning services at high latitudes. The political aim is to provide an independent positioning system upon which European nations can rely even in times of war or political disagreement, since Russia or the USA could disable use of their national systems by others (through encryption).
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Good night people, I'm calling it a day. Buenas noches.


Gnite, Buena informacion...
iam gone be back in the am night people
Gnite All....

I just caught up on today's blog activity. Interesting conversation on the ionosphere. Everyone seems to be checking out for the night. I don't see anything much coming from that AOI in the Caribbean. Good night all.
2010111406 ... 113N, 773W, 20, 1009, DB
2010111412 ... 116N, 776W, 20, 1009, DB
2010111418 ... 120N, 780W, 20, 1009, DB
2010111500 ... 121N, 784W, 20, 1008, LO
2010111506 ... 119N, 782W, 20, 1008, LO
Invest94L data from ATCF
14Nov 06amGMT - 11.3n77.3w - 20knots - 1009mb - disturbance
14Nov 12pmGMT - 11.6n77.6w - 20knots - 1009mb - disturbance
14Nov 06pmGMT - 12.0n78.0w - 20knots - 1009mb - disturbance
15Nov 12amGMT - 12.1n78.4w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
15Nov 06amGMT - 11.9n78.2w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
Interesting retrograde...

...making this particular revision of previous coordinates...
(before-revision coordinates shown as unlabeled&unconnected dots at
11.1n77.0w, 11.2n77.3w, 11.5n77.8w, 11.9n78.3w, 12.2n78.6w
with after-revision coordinates shown as connected dots at
11.1n77.0w, 11.3n77.3w, 11.6n77.6w, 12.0n78.0w, 12.1n78.4w, 11.9n78.2w )
...a pointless exercise since (the appearance of the southeastward jag nearly guarantees that) they are going to be reevaluated&revised (at least) once again (to smooth the curve for computer modelers).

Copy&paste 11.1n76.7w, 11.1n76.8w, 11.1n76.9w, 11.1n77.0w, 11.3n77.3w-11.6n77.6w, 11.6n77.6w-12.0n78.0w, 12.0n78.0w-12.1n78.4w, 12.1n78.4w-11.9n78.2w, gja, adz, pva, baq into the GreatCircleMapper for a map covering more area to look at relevant coastlines as well as directions and distances travelled over the last 24hours.
I just got banned for 1300 hours for posting an off-topic image. I haven't even posted at all in the last month or so. Issue seems to be solved now though.. >.>
Worse's been happenin' to alotta us folks recently. We been baaaaaad boys.
Fortunately we can all come back for the HurricaneSeason of 2012, the Mayan End of Times.
Wouldn' wanna miss that, nosirree bob.
208. IKE
378 hours...
27 minutes...and it's over....for 2010...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Morning -- checking to see what's being served this week.

Got some waves in my future : )
Surf Report - AuraSurf/Micah Weaver
A front will move into the gulf and stall out this week. When that happens there's that chance a little groundswell can come in from the boundary. To me, this week looks like this: Late in the day on Tuesday we could see a knee to thigh S windswell at best S facers. Then Wednesday mid-day a small thigh high glassy W groundswell may show up depending on the strength of the winds in the gulf behind the front. I give the small g-swell a 50/50 shot. Not anything to skip work/school for but something to keep an eye on. Thursday maybe a small knee to thigh NW wind and swell from the weak front washing through.

Gulf Waters presently 67degree's brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
no choice - wetsuit time

off to work - always pleased it's horses not humans
94l though appearing alot smaller has a well defined spin this am
Quoting stormpetrol:
94l though appearing alot smaller has a well defined spin this am
I believe it has started to consolidate.

212. IKE
Models on 94L....Link


I would guess no recon today:

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I would guess no recon today:




IDK, doesn't really look all that bad. It is small but has consolidated nicely since yesterday.
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SAT 13 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-165

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.0 AND 79.0W AT 15/1800Z.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

Quoting Patrap:
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SAT 13 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-165

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.0 AND 79.0W AT 15/1800Z.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- SW CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 15/1315Z
D. 12.5N AND 79.0W
E. 15/1700-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Actually this is the most organized 94L ever looked, jmo
325
fxus64 klix 151056
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
456 am CST Monday Nov 15 2010


Short term...
water vapor imagery shows a very dynamic pattern with a series of
upper level speed maxima and middle/upper level vorticity maxima all
lined up to move through the central Gulf Coast region today and
tonight. The resultant positive vorticity advection and upper divergence will interact with
a deep moist air column and a stalled frontal boundary that is
expected to drift north over inland sections of the forecast area
today.


Radar loops show an increase in moderate to heavy rain over about
the western half of the area...and this rain will continue to
overspread most of the forecast area this morning. Embedded
convective elements are seen in both radar and satellite...so
expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to mix in through the
day. A few of the thunderstorms could have mini-Bow like
structures that could produce strong wind gusts approaching severe
levels given the cell movement will be around 35 miles per hour. In
addition...cannot rule out a couple brief tornadoes or waterspouts
near and south of the frontal boundary. Storm Prediction Center indicates a see text
/5 percent severe potential/ over most of the forecast area today
and tonight...and a mesoscale discussion has been issued for
severe potential across southern Louisiana early this morning.


Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will occur today...and have
gone with the HPC quantitative precipitation forecast of 1 to 2 plus inches today and tonight.
Locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible where repeat
thunderstorm activity occurs. Any flood producing rainfall should
remain isolated due to the dry antecedent conditions...however...
cannot rule out localized street/urban flooding.


Most of the active weather will occur before midnight
tonight...then rainfall and thunderstorms should quickly diminish
from the west overnight into Tuesday morning as the frontal
boundary moves back southeast as a cold front. Cloud cover will
decrease Tuesday afternoon and much drier air will bring lower
relative humidity back to the region as the middle level trough moves
through. Surface high pressure will bring mostly clear skies and
rather cool temperatures Tuesday night...but no freeze or frost is
expected in the wake of this cold front.


Long term...
another shortwave trough will pass through the middle Mississippi
Valley late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will bring a
reinforcing cold front through the forecast area late Wednesday
night. There will be very little moisture available to work with
this front...so am not including any mention of rain. High
pressure will rebuild over the area Thursday into Friday...then
the high will move east Friday night through early next week. A
general zonal to southwest flow pattern in the middle/upper levels
will prevail...and temperatures are likely to rise above normal
by Sunday as high pressure builds and heights rise over the Gulf
of Mexico. 22/dew point


&&
Quoting stormpetrol:
Actually this is the most organized 94L ever looked, jmo
It is firing up some intense cloud tops. Looks much better than yesterday when it was at 40%.
From Miami NWS Discussion:

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD
PUSHING IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT AND BRIEFLY
STALLING IT JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH GIVING A SECOND PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT AND MOVING IT
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA AND SO NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. WL EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AT BEST. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
STILL REMAIN WITHIN FEW DEGREES OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AL, 94, 2010111512, 121N, 773W, 20, 1008, LO
Link
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 94, 2010111512, 121N, 773W, 20, 1008, LO
Winds still at 25 mph but pressure has dropped 1 mb and now classified as a low instead of a disturbance.

Guys:

I live in Caracas, Venezuela.

Last night we had heavy thunderstorms, L94 related even we're a lot of miles northeast the storm...

I'll be updating my weather post and posting here too conditions here...

See u!
Just updated:

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just updated:


well its safe to say its not going to the GOM or FLA
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just updated:

Looks like BAMD pinpoints Haiti again. I highly doubt that will verify. At least I pray it won't but this time of year they tend to move more NE so you never know.
go west till land then poof disappear
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
go west till land then poof disappear
That would be nice.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well its safe to say its not going to the GOM or FLA
Everything I have read agrees it will stay confined to the Caribbean.
Blue sky! Morning all!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Winds still at 25 mph but pressure has dropped 1 mb and now classified as a low instead of a disturbance.

...and the center has shifted east to 77.3 from yesterday's 78.4. And while I don't know whether it will last, for the moment it's showing some definite spin on satellite loops.
just got this message again

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Thanks sunlinepr!
LOL... yeah keep I've been getting that message too, but it comes and goes.

Technical fault.
Those ban bugs are going out en masse then self deleting KOTG.

Ignore them
ya i know just freaks me out when i see em and the 12000 hrs thing thats like the end of next season

lol
13,000 hours divided by 24 = 541.666667 days
Why do the people get the ban messages, but aren't really banned?

I am, are you actually banned for a while?
Seems to be a script error maybe.

The message disappears when ya re-fresh the page.

I sent wunderblogadmin a note this morning about them
Morning.........Some much needed rain headed towards the Gulf States this am.
GOM IR Loop



223. GeoffreyWPB " AL, 94, 2010111512, 121N, 773W, 20, 1008, LO ... Link "


Now if we can just train it to do a barrel roll at the same time...
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop



valley tracker windy system too later wed and thur 60 kmh winds with thursday being higher maybe to 80 kmh for our region rain no snow sorry orca
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
valley tracker windy system too later wed and thur 60 kmh winds with thursday being higher maybe to 80 kmh for our region rain no snow sorry orca


I have faith :)
It will snow in the centre of the Universe soon :)


Click to Enlarge
Quoting Neapolitan:

...and the center has shifted east to 77.3 from yesterday's 78.4. And while I don't know whether it will last, for the moment it's showing some definite spin on satellite loops.
Recon for today rescheduled to tomorrow.
Ifn ya been waiting for a new blog before posting, NEW BLOG