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Caribbean disturbance 94L may develop early next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:11 PM GMT on November 12, 2010

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) has developed in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands developing on the west side of 94L's center. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may slow down development to a small degree. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Sunday, then rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Monday through Wednesday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L as it moves slowly westwards at 5 mph over the next two days. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally westwards at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras on Wednesday. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will only be a concern for Central America. I give 94L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Virginie.

I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Shucks...we know the facts but in Belize we were hoping we could breathe a sigh of relief by now!
Is anyone else having trouble getting satellites from SSD?
ANOTHER storm that doesn't affect the USA. Amazing. I was hoping this could go NNW and bring some rain to drought-stricken florida.
Thanks for the update, Sir.

Just saw the orange area on the NHC website, and came here for the rest of the story!
No, no, no, no, no!!!! I realize mid November is still technically Hurricane Season. But usually it is a pretty safe to book your cruise at this time!!

giant swells are being generated by the western atlantic storm it looks massive
Quoting winter123:
ANOTHER storm that doesn't affect the USA. Amazing. I was hoping this could go NNW and bring some rain to drought-stricken florida.

Good for you guys bad for us. I have to check but I think this is a record for Belize to have 3 named storms making landfall here in one year.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Quoting belizewunderfan:

Good for you guys bad for us. I have to check but I think this is a record for Belize to have 3 named storms making landfall here in one year.
Karl did not make land fall on Belize but very much afected the north of the country
thanks for update doc
Thank you for the update Dr. Masters
XX/INV/94L
MARK
11.56N/75.98W


once near 80 w may stall for a bit or becom quasi stationary
i think 94 will take a Matthew/Richard track.
94 becomes quasi stationary near 80 w by 72 hrs expect models to change and become better establish as to a more likly track by then

things can and will change
SHIPS makes 94L a 80 mph Category 1 hurricane in 72 hours.
this is also dipicted by NHC also in 72 hrs

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
94 becomes quasi stationary near 80 w by 72 hrs expect models to change and become better establish as to a more likly track by then

things can and will change
Do you think 94 will barely go over Honduras or go N of it?
Quoting RMM34667:
No, no, no, no, no!!!! I realize mid November is still technically Hurricane Season. But usually it is a pretty safe to book your cruise at this time!!

Already booked! Will be admiring the Hurricane- stricken islands and all the damage leftover while basking in the sun drinking a Pina colada while wearing shades! AH ha ha ha ha.
Very rough surf off of DBS today and a lot the waves are breaking far from shore. Supposed to be even rougher tomorrow thanks to the low in the Atlantic.
Quoting scott39:
Do you think 94 will barely go over Honduras or go N of it?
Or go to the West Coast of Fl. LOL
Quoting belizeit:

Gee, those models are definitely agreed XD.
Quoting scott39:
Do you think 94 will barely go over Honduras or go N of it?
well if you look at surface map i posted for 72 hr mark shows a cold front swing down into GOM that may become an important player also that said front should move down to yuc in a line ne ward up over fla but stall and become occulted so we have to watch a few things to be sure after the next 24 we will know more
255

WHXX01 KWBC 121813

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1813 UTC FRI NOV 12 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20101112 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

101112 1800 101113 0600 101113 1800 101114 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.1N 76.2W 10.9N 77.0W 10.5N 77.9W 10.3N 78.2W

BAMD 11.1N 76.2W 11.1N 77.3W 11.0N 78.5W 10.8N 79.9W

BAMM 11.1N 76.2W 10.9N 77.3W 10.4N 78.3W 9.9N 79.2W

LBAR 11.1N 76.2W 11.4N 77.0W 12.3N 77.5W 13.7N 77.5W

SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 45KTS

DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 45KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

101114 1800 101115 1800 101116 1800 101117 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.3N 78.3W 11.6N 78.3W 14.6N 79.1W 17.2N 81.1W

BAMD 10.6N 81.4W 10.1N 84.6W 9.9N 87.9W 10.2N 92.2W

BAMM 9.5N 79.9W 9.4N 80.9W 10.7N 82.0W 12.2N 83.5W

LBAR 15.2N 76.8W 18.4N 73.4W 21.5N 70.8W 24.5N 69.7W

SHIP 56KTS 69KTS 69KTS 66KTS

DSHP 56KTS 69KTS 69KTS 66KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 75.4W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 74.5W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well if you look at surface map i posted for 72 hr mark shows a cold front swing down into GOM that may become an important player also that said front should move down to yuc in a line ne ward up over fla but stall and become occulted so we have to watch a few things to be sure after the next 24 we will know more
maybe I LOL about FL. too soon!
That stopped being funny about 2 months ago Scott
If the 2010 season kicks out #20, will it be second to 2005?
Quoting FtMyersgal:
That stopped being funny about 2 months ago Scott
Ok...
My best guess is that it will take a Mitch type track without the later trek up to south FL. And hopefully much weaker than Mitch.
Quoting scott39:
If the 2010 season kicks out #20, will it be second to 2005?


No. It will be third, behind the 21 of 1933.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


No. It will be third, behind the 21 of 1933.
And still amazing to me that not one hurricane hit the USA Conus!
If 94L becomes Virginie we'd still be 3rd place, but we'd break the named storm tie with 1995 and 1887.

Still, its pretty extreme that 2 of the top 3 most active hurricane seasons have happened in the last 5 years.

Its possible that 2010 will end up with a final toll of 21-13-5. I think Walter will form at the very end of this month.
we are at 22 including depressions or non named systems if we get v and then w it will make 24
Quoting scott39:
And still amazing to me that not one hurricane hit the USA Conus!
we are not finished yet
I say we go ahead and try to break the 2005 record!
We need 10 named storms starting before the end of December to break the 2005 record. I'm pretty sure that won't happen.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are not finished yet
True, But I would say the odds are against it at this point. But you never know with mother Nature.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
We need 10 named storms starting before the end of December to break the 2005 record. I'm pretty sure that won't happen.
I should have thrown the Sarcasm Flag up.
SEASONAL FORECAST MADE IN APRIL 2010

KEEPEROFTHEGATE 23 TOTAL,14 HURRICANES,7 MAJORS,3 CAT FIVES
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
SEASONAL FORECAST MADE IN APRIL 2010

KEEPEROFTHEGATE 23 TOTAL,14 HURRICANES,7 MAJORS,3 CAT FIVES


Keeper some models are calling for Walter during the Thanksgiving week. Very amazing not only to get one storm in November but 2. WOW!
Afternoon everybody. Is this AOI the Twave we were watching earlier this week? I lost track of things since Monday / Tuesday....
FWIW. While there has not been a 'Landfalling' US hurricane this year, Earl made a Direct hit on the Outer banks.

Still, we shouldn't mainly focus on how the US wasn't hit this year. Somehow the news finds it right to do that though. How about the fact out of the 19 storms we have had this year.. 12 of them made a landfall? Alex, Bonnie, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas.

At this date in 2005 there had been 23 storms. 22 had names. 5 more were to come. It's too bad the subtropical storm designated later never got a name--we would have made it to Eta.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW. While there has not been a 'Landfalling' US hurricane this year, Earl made a Direct hit on the Outer banks.

Still, we shouldn't mainly focus on how the US wasn't hit this year. Somehow the news finds it right to do that though. How about the fact out of the 19 storms we have had this year.. 12 of them made a landfall? Alex, Bonnie, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas.



Did Tomas's eye hit St. Lucia or not?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW. While there has not been a 'Landfalling' US hurricane this year, Earl made a Direct hit on the Outer banks.

Still, we shouldn't mainly focus on how the US wasn't hit this year. Somehow the news finds it right to do that though. How about the fact out of the 19 storms we have had this year.. 12 of them made a landfall? Alex, Bonnie, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas.


Fiona didn't make landfall.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Fiona didn't make landfall.


Ah your right it didn't. Prompted TS warnings in the islands though.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


Did Tomas's eye hit St. Lucia or not?

He made landfall at Barbados and the Turks and Caicos. His eyewall grazed the island, but just a direct hit, no landfall.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


Did Tomas's eye hit St. Lucia or not?


I know that Tomas hit one of the islands directly, don't know which one though. St. Lucia was the one that recorded the 90 mph winds while Tomas was strengthening.
to be honest i would not be surprized to see a early dec out of season storm who knows maybe even one of those rare south atlantic storms off south america
When did the NHC decide to stop renaming storms if they switched basins so like Joan-Miriam, Cesar-Douglas, et cetera.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know that Tomas hit one of the islands directly, don't know which one though. St. Lucia was the one that recorded the 90 mph winds while Tomas was strengthening.

Barbados was the landfall island.
94L showing signs of organization...



I give 94L a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Virginie, or higher.
-

Meanwhile, behind this Cold Front and line of thunderstorms here in North Texas, boy is it getting cold!

Winds are sustained in the 20-25 mph range, with gusts sometimes up to Tropical Depression/Storm force.


still image of rare south atlantic basin storm
Tomas made landfall on Barbados as a 70 mph TS

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94L showing signs of organization...



I give 94L a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Virginie, or higher.
-

Meanwhile, behind this Cold Front and line of thunderstorms here in North Texas, boy is it getting cold!

Winds are sustained in the 20-25 mph range, with gusts sometimes up to Tropical Depression/Storm force.


Wait till next year as models are showing Neutral conditions by July trending to a very weak El-nino come next winter. Neutral conditions are very dangerous as this leads to many US landfalls. Strong La Nina like this year favor C.A. & Mexico.

2011
18 to 20 storms
10 to 13 hurricanes
6 to 8 majors
1 to 3 cat 5's

7 US landfalls total

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


still image of rare south atlantic basin storm


Rare indeed!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Wait till next year as models are showing Neutral conditions by July trending to a very weak El-nino come next winter. Neutral conditions are very dangerous as this eludes to many US landfalls. Strong La Nina like this year favor C.A. & Mexico.

2011
18 to 20 storms
10 to 13 hurricanes
6 to 8 majors
1 to 3 cat 5's

7 US landfalls total



We went through this last night :P

Models are predicting a mostly La Nina, transitioning to Neutral for September and onwards. Follow the thick yellow line.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tomas made landfall on Barbados as a 70 mph TS


I knew I was right! lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94L showing signs of organization...



I give 94L a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Virginie, or higher.
-

Meanwhile, behind this Cold Front and line of thunderstorms here in North Texas, boy is it getting cold!

Winds are sustained in the 20-25 mph range, with gusts sometimes up to Tropical Depression/Storm force.

You live in Texas? Wow I can't believe I took this long to figure that out.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
to be honest i would not be surprized to see a early dec out of season storm who knows maybe even one of those rare south atlantic storms off south america
You're the 2nd one to predict a possible South Atlantic storm. That would be very interesting.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You're the 2nd one to predict a possible South Atlantic storm. That would be very interesting.
i beleive one day we will actually have two new basins added to the atlantic and they would be the south atlantic basin from jan till april and the med basin from july too sept
I thought Tomas' eye also hit St Vincent.... so it actually passed through St. Vincent Passage w/out touching land on either side?

Quoting belizeit:


No way to be Haiti again ! We can't afford that any more, I think 2010 give us enough misery.
Quoting jcpoulard:


No way to be Haiti again ! We can't afford that any more, I think 2010 give us enough misery.
Boujour, M. Poulard! It is very good to see you here again. I agree that once is enough for Haiti...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Boujour, M. Poulard! It is very good to see you here again. I agree that once is enough for Haiti...


I just see the BAMS Model project a path to Haiti... I'm not so surprise that will can append because this late storm have a "retrograde" path.... and re curve to the NE at the caribean sea. Hope nothing like that will happen. I will continue to monitor the progress of this low and see if some thing going to happen and give the early alert as I did for Tomas.

By the way... I think the NHC make a good job this on track the storm... Tomas was the more difficult one but with a accuracy of 120 to 150 mile, that's almost a perfect prediction... this prediction help to serve hundred... may be thousand of life here in Haiti.
Besides 94L not much out there.


I hope 94L fizzles, eh... 19 storms is more than enough. :]
XX/INV/94L
MARK
11.56N/75.98W
7PM EST TWO

Still 30% for 94L
Quoting Waltanater:
Already booked! Will be admiring the Hurricane- stricken islands and all the damage leftover while basking in the sun drinking a Pina colada while wearing shades! AH ha ha ha ha.


Booked, Packed, Sailing Sunday.. Tuesday Grand Cayman, Wedsday Cozumel, Thursday Belize, Friday Roatan... (or not?)
Locally acquired case of dengue fever turns up in Miami

The case is the first in more than 50 years where the disease was contracted locally. Health officials warned people to take precautions against the mosquito carriers.
Quoting RMM34667:


Booked, Packed, Sailing Sunday.. Tuesday Grand Cayman, Wedsday Cozumel, Thursday Belize, Friday Roatan... (or not?)
Hi. Have you ever been to Grand Cayman yet ?
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
At this date in 2005 there had been 23 storms. 22 had names. 5 more were to come. It's too bad the subtropical storm designated later never got a name--we would have made it to Eta.
NE eye walls skirt the island they got the highest winds, 90mps wind gusting 110mph, so whats the difference?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi. Have you ever been to Grand Cayman yet ?

Hi, just looking at 94L, I think this maybe the first one of the Season that we really have to watch, especially with the NHC now stressing a WNW movement , JMO of course.
here is invest 94L
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi, just looking at 94L, I think this maybe the first one of the Season that we really have to watch, especially with the NHC now stressing a WNW movement , JMO of course.
I just said on another site that I hope Cayman's luck hasn't run out. I think we need to watch it closely too. Drakoen(I think) or KOG mentioned earlier a cold front coming down in a couple days which would most likely bring it in this direction.:(
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I just said on another site that I hope Cayman's luck hasn't run out. I think we need to watch it closely too. Drakoen(I think) or KOG mentioned earlier a cold front coming down in a couple days which would most likely bring it in this direction.:(

Was thinking the same thing, nice to see Drakoen posting again, I always enjoy his posts!
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi, just looking at 94L, I think this maybe the first one of the Season that we really have to watch, especially with the NHC now stressing a WNW movement , JMO of course.
-From CaribWx update today.


If a Tropical LO forms, it is predicted by all Global models to move W-NW...toward Providencia/SanAndreas then Nicaragua...or
toward Nicaragua-Honduras border...or somewhere S&W of Jamaica, or near-or-S&W of Caymans...to anywhere in NW Caribbean (Yucatan or
Honduras).
INVEST 94l.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Was thinking the same thing, nice to see Drakoen posting again, I always enjoy his posts!
I also enjoy his posts and he is one of the more intelligent ones on here that knows what they are talking about.
Quoting scott39:
Or go to the West Coast of Fl. LOL
The West coast of Fl would be a graveyard for 94 L. considering that water temps are now in the low 70s and the shear is so high.
I wonder how far south that large gale force low would go,is getting close to warmer waters now.
hey glad to be back with you for the past 2 days there has been a glitch it said i had been band for what ever reason o well guess they saw it was an error..... i see we have another invest...94 L and i thought this season was over lol
Quoting lightningbolt73:
The West coast of Fl would be a graveyard for 94 L. considering that water temps are now in the low 70s and the shear is so high.


i wouldnt be so sure Ida made it to the gulf coast as a 50 mph storm last year i think it would have been stronger if the shear was less


Click to enlarge
well what ever this thing does weather its a tropical storm or hurricane its going to mean more rain for C America
It is quite incredible how the temps in North Tx dropped after that Cold front came through. Tx is known to have extreme weather swings. Here in Fl. We're supposed to have beautiful weather for the weekend.
ATCF says no change in winds or pressure, but a little farther north:

AL, 94, 2010111300, , BEST, 0, 111N, 765W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says no change in winds or pressure, but a little farther north:

AL, 94, 2010111300, , BEST, 0, 111N, 765W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


I just redid everything... barely any physical changes in appearance either.

2 models are calling for a CAT 1



Models have shifted quite a bit more northerly since earlier today.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Models have shifted quite a bit more northerly since earlier today.


what do intensity models say?
Quoting weatherlover94:


what do intensity models say?
80 mph hurricane(Cat 1)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We went through this last night :P

Models are predicting a mostly La Nina, transitioning to Neutral for September and onwards. Follow the thick yellow line.



you might want to look again as again you are wrong!
POAMA Forecasts

The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast every day for the following eight months starting with the latest observations. The average of the most recent 30 model runs predict La Niña conditions will gradually weaken over the coming months however the event will persist until the end of February 2011.

The negative IOD event has decayed and is currently neutral with the latest weekly value of the IOD index rising to +0.04. POAMA predicts that the IOD index will remain neutral through November and the southern hemisphere summer. IOD events usually weaken during November and December with the onset of the Australian Monsoon.

February 2011
For the 30 runs of POAMA between 10 October 2010 and 8 November 2010, the average NINO3.4 temperature anomaly for February 2011 is -0.9°C and the frequency distribution is as follows:
below −0.8°C: 66.7% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 33.3% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

April 2011
Similarly for March 2011 the average NINO3.4 index is -0.62°C and the frequency distribution is:
below −0.8°C: 30.0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 70.0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

Similar data for other months can be accessed by following the "POAMA" link in the table above.

Users should exercise caution when interpreting these forecasts and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the web links. Frequent updates of the latest observational data with relevant commentary are available on the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up page.

Chances are Belize will feel some effect from 94L.. I'm trying to give it 24hrs before I put some certainty in that.
the latest I've found for a hurricane landfall in the US was Kate 1985 so the US statistically could still be hit, although I doubt anything will happen to the US for the rest of the year
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i beleive one day we will actually have two new basins added to the atlantic and they would be the south atlantic basin from jan till april and the med basin from july too sept
No, i agree with later on a possible south Atlantic Season, but a med atlantic season, NO. First of all this is where the ITCZ Sits and the NHC never calls a storm when its in the ITCZ.
Quoting Jeff9641:


you might want to look again as again you are wrong!


I went through this with Tropical lastnight.

Tropical~ Neutral conditions start at -.5 the graph clearly shows ~2/3rds (11/6, a solid majority), favoring neutral or warmer.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
No, i agree with later on a possible south Atlantic Season, but a med atlantic season, NO. First of all this is where the ITCZ Sits and the NHC never calls a storm when its in the ITCZ.
I think he meant Mediterranean, not mid-ATL....

I'm out for a while....
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think he meant Mediterranean, not mid-ATL....

I'm out for a while....
still a med season is still unlikely to me. Too Many Fronts
107. JLPR2


94L feeling happy
CybrTeddy "I know that Tomas hit one of the islands directly, don't know which one though. St. Lucia was the one that recorded the 90 mph winds while Tomas was strengthening."
55 WeatherNerdPR "Barbados was the landfall island."

TropicalStormTomas
30Oct 06amGMT - 12.4n58.8w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#3A
30Oct 09amGMT - 12.9n59.5w - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#4
30Oct 12pmGMT - 13.1n60.1w - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#4A
HurricaneTomas
30Oct 03pmGMT - 13.3n60.7w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#5
30Oct 06pmGMT - 13.4n61.0w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 992mb - NHC.Adv.#5A
30Oct 09pmGMT - 13.5n61.4w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 992mb - NHC.Adv.#6
30Oct 10pmGMT - 13.5n61.6w - 90mph(~144.9km/h) - 982mb - NHC.Adv.#7
31Oct 12amGMT - 13.5n61.7w - 90mph(~144.9km/h) - 982mb - NHC.Adv.#7A
Copy&paste 12.4n58.8w-12.9n59.5w, 12.9n59.5w-13.1n60.1w, 13.1n60.1w-13.3n60.7w, 13.3n60.7w-13.4n61.0w, 13.4n61.0w-13.5n61.4w, 13.5n61.4w-13.5n61.6w, 13.5n61.6w-13.5n61.7w, bgi, svd, uvf into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the directions and distances traveled over those 18hours.

Doesn't exclude the possibility of (near) landfall on Barbados(BGI) -- a TropicalCyclone would curve through those position coordinates, and not make sharp turns at those recorded positions -- but even after making generous allowances for curvature, Tomas's center appears to have passed closer to St.Vincent(SVD) at ~4miles(6.4kilometres) from Fancy on the northern coastline.
Note also that the farthest point on St.Vincent is closer to the center of Tomas's passage than the nearest point on St.Lucia(UVF)
This was a season of ULL's and dry air.
Mostly westward or nw movement.
very little activity in the gom or fl east coast.
It seems Costa Rica is going to get more rainfall this weekend
84 hrs NAM

Seems like everyone is enjoying their Friday night lol
Quoting caneswatch:
Seems like everyone is enjoying their Friday night lol


True! lol
POSS.T.C.F.A
XX/INV/94L
MARK
11.56N/75.98W
Quoting Chicklit:
This was a season of ULL's and dry air.
Mostly westward or nw movement.
very little activity in the gom or fl east coast.

I agree with you Chicklit,There was something brought up at the beginning of the season in the blog as being an initial set-up condition that was odd in some way...however this was a diverse group discussion and the banter didn't seem serious at the time...I believe the topic was "Cyclical Patterns"...Food for thought
There has never, to my knowledge, been any kind of tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean. There was once a polar low (January 1995) which was the farthest south such system ever recorded, I think, but that is the closest one can come. The Mediterranean has neither high enough SSTs nor enough atmospheric moisture for true tropical cyclogenesis.

As to South Atlantic prospects, the historical database (1 hurricane, 2 tropical storms) is so small that it is difficult to make meaningful season predictions; the area is not well understood in these terms. It is not even easy to access satellite or other imagery from this area, which falls outside the usual maps.
Quoting Snowfire:
There has never, to my knowledge, been any kind of tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean. There was once a polar low (January 1995) which was the farthest south such system ever recorded, I think, but that is the closest one can come. The Mediterranean has neither high enough SSTs nor enough atmospheric moisture for true tropical cyclogenesis.

As to South Atlantic prospects, the historical database (1 hurricane, 2 tropical storms) is so small that it is difficult to make meaningful season predictions; the area is not well understood in these terms. It is not even easy to access satellite or other imagery from this area, which falls outside the usual maps.
HERE IS SOME LINKS ON MEDI TROPICAL LIKE SYSTEMS

Link

Link


HERE IS A MED IMAGE

AND ANOTHER ONE BELOW
Quoting Snowfire:
There has never, to my knowledge, been any kind of tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean. ......


Mediterranean Sea

Storms that appear similar to tropical cyclones in structure sometimes occur in the Mediterranean basin. Examples of these "Mediterranean tropical cyclones" formed in September 1947, September 1969, September 1973, August 1976, January 1982, September 1983, December 1984, December 1985, October 1994, January 1995, October 1996, September 1997, December 2005, September 2006. However, there is debate on whether these storms were tropical in nature.[30] The Black Sea has, on occasion, produced or fueled storms that begin cyclonic rotation, and appear to be similar to cyclones seen in the Mediterranean.[31]
Thanks KOTG,
Take a look at Post #109 and then my response #119 and see if you can link us or add to this discussion TIA
howdy everyone


HERE IS A SAMPLE ANIM
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
No, i agree with later on a possible south Atlantic Season, but a med atlantic season, NO. First of all this is where the ITCZ Sits and the NHC never calls a storm when its in the ITCZ.

Med bassin mean Mediteranean basin Europe and North africa.
On November 12, 1974 a very powerful storm slammed into western Alaska. Hurricane force winds drove a storm surge of 13.2 feet above normal into Nome, AK carrying rafts of ice. Most of the seaside portion of the town was wrecked.




URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
902 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO ALONG
WITH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

.A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SEVEN
COUNTY METRO AREA. IT CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A ROW OF COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WARNING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLS WITHIN THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ADVISORY AREA CAN EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.


HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF MISSOURI. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
AS THE LOW HEADS INTO EASTERN IOWA...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF WET SNOW. THE HEAVY SNOW AREA SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NEAR
FAIRMONT...MANKATO...THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...TO NEAR
CAMBRIDGE...AND BALSAM LAKE WISCONSIN.

ALTHOUGH GROUND AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH AN HOUR...WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY TO ALLOW
THIS SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. IF TRAVEL IS PLANNED ON
SATURDAY...BE SURE TO CHECK ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE
HEADING OUT AND BE PREPARED TO USE EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR
DESTINATION.

MNZ044-045-051>053-058>061-065-066-068-069-WIZ014-131115-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0004.101113T1200Z-101114T1200Z/
MILLE LACS-KANABEC-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-
HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-CARVER-SCOTT-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRINCETON...MORA...ELK RIVER...
CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...
BLAINE...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...AMERY...
BALSAM LAKE
902 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM CST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND
AN INCH AN HOUR LIKELY.

* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 10
INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

The Meteosat-9 image below shows the case of a tropical low over the Namibia-Botswana border area that occurred in January 2010. The tropical low had a distinct spiral structure with embedded convective cells, but no eye. On the following day, as the low progressed through the central parts of South Africa, the intense and prolonged ....
Link

my conclussion remains that in the future the medi basin being added as a new basin is poss also the south atlantic being added is there as well although there is not as much support as the medi basin
Fortunately no lives were lost in Nome AK as a result of the 1974 storm.
sunlinepr any info on how deep that Namibian low was?
On this day in weather history ..

* 1906 - The mercury soared to 106 degrees at Craftonville, CA, a November record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)

* 1959 - Between Noon on the 11th and Noon on the 12th, a winter storm buried Helena, MT, under 21.5 inches of snow, which surpassed their previous 24 hour record by seven inches. (The Weather Channel)

* 1968 - A severe coastal storm produced high winds and record early snows from Georgia to Maine. Winds reached 90 mph in Massachusetts, and ten inches of snow blanketed interior Maine. (David Ludlum)

* 1974 - A great Alaska storm in the Bering Sea caused the worst coastal flooding of memory at Nome AK with a tide of 13.2 feet. The flooding caused 12 million dollars damage, however no lives are lost. (David Ludlum)

* 1987 - Heavy snow spread across much of New England. Totals in Massachusetts ranged up to 14 inches in Plymouth County. The seven inch total at the Logan Airport in Boston was their highest of record for so early in the season, and the 9.7 inch total at Providence RI was a record for November. Roads were clogged with traffic and made impassable as snowplow operators were caught unprepared for the early season snowstorm. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

* 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Bovina MS. Morning thunderstorms drenched Atlanta TX with more than four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 1989 - Thirty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Scottsbluff NE was a record for November, and highs of 76 degrees at Rapid City SD and 81 degrees at Chattanooga TN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 2003 - Thunderstorms developed in southern California and produced torrential downpours across parts of the Los Angeles area. More than 5 inches of rain fell in just 2 hours in southern Los Angeles, producing severe urban flooding. Small hail also accompanied the storms, accumulating several inches deep in some areas of the city. Nearly 115,000 electrical customers lost power as the storms affected the area (Associated Press).

Sources: All information, except those items marked as coming from Intellicast, are from a compilation of weather facts by Hugh Crowther of the Aviation Weather Center. Hugh is a weather historian and has collected and organized weather facts for every day of the year.
137. JRRP
un temblor de tierra aqui en santo domingo


good heavy expanding snow shield dev. with the storm now T dude still got 6 hrs of cooling left till first light
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
sunlinepr any info on how deep that Namibian low was?


Im looking for that in the article and here I just felt a small EARTHQUAKE here in Caguas PR....
Quoting JRRP:
un temblor de tierra


Se movio toda la pantalla de la PC y el sofa....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


good heavy expanding snow shield dev. with the storm now T dude still got 6 hrs of cooling left till first light


yeah I bet there will be totals near 15 inches when it's done
USGS has not plotted that yet...

Link
143. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:


Se movio toda la pantalla de la PC y el sofa....

Si aqui tambien
las ventanas se escuchaban q estaban temblando
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


HERE IS A MED IMAGE

AND ANOTHER ONE BELOW


Thankx KOTG; I was on a small cruise ship in Rhodes where we had to be held against the peir by two tug boats because of 90mph winds. Coming from a hurricane prone area,it sure felt like that type of a storm. no matter what its called
145. JLPR2
Seriously? An earthquake? I didn't feel anything. :P
Yikes an earthquake! I've never felt one.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Im looking for that in the article and here I just felt a small EARTHQUAKE here in Caguas PR....

Not that small; 'twas a 5.4 5.6 272 km (169 miles) WSW of San Juan:



Thanks for the links, Keeper.

Link 1 describes systems characterized by small size, rapid spin-up, relatively low SSTs, and dry feed air which is substantially colder than the sea it overruns--in other words, they sound polar rather than tropical in nature. Link 2 has some nice photos, showing open-topped systems (lacking a CDO), which is often also a characteristic of polar lows. Compare this photo of the 1/15/95 storm



with that of this spiraliform storm in the Barents Sea:



To me they look darn similar, and I submit they are both polar lows. Admittedly one contained rain and the other snow, but I see no other important difference.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not that small; 'twas a 5.4:





Many thanks Neopolitan.... I just reported it to USGS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN IA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 130319Z - 130745Z

A CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN IA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN.

IT IS LIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/ORIENT INTO
GENERAL SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BANDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITHIN
AN EVOLVING DEFORMATION BAND/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM FAR
EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN. SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND/JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES AT
MID EVENING /03Z/...BUT COLD ADVECTION/HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO /OR AT LEAST EMBEDDED BOUTS
OF/ SNOW.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 00Z OMAHA OBSERVED RAOB AND OBSERVED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RUC/00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A
CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HEAVY WET SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ATOP
A DEEP /JUST BELOW FREEZING/ ISOTHERMAL LAYER BEING RATHER FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE FLAKES/AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE 06Z-09Z
TIME FRAME AND BEYOND. FURTHERMORE...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /AND EVEN SOME SCANT CAPE NOTED IN
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...EMBEDDED SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1 IN/HR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.

..GUYER.. 11/13/2010


ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 44539438 44089282 42689443 41509536 42389641 44539438
Quoting JLPR2:
Seriously? An earthquake? I didn't feel anything. :P


My computer table had a little shake... Not too much... smaller than the last one (about 9 mo. ago). Though I'm in the NE of PR, In Mayaguez, Cabo Rojo they should have felt it stronger....
153. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


My computer table had a little shake... Not too much... smaller than the last one (about 9 mo. ago). Though I'm in the NE of PR, In Mayaguez, Cabo Rojo they should have felt it stronger....


Yep, I'm in the NE too, I remember that during the last one I felt the bed move and the television almost fell from the table, but for this one I guess I was distracted with music and didn't even notice. XD
I hope all are ok
I don't need to look out for a tsunami in St. Croix do I?
155. JRRP
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not that small; 'twas a 5.4 (272 km (169 miles) WSW (258�) from San Juan, PR):




but here in santo domingo we felt it strong
Quoting sunlinepr:


Many thanks Neopolitan.... I just reported it to USGS

Did you call them, or fill out the report form?
157. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:

but here in santo domingo we felt it strong


Oh yes you guys are closer to the epicenter.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
sunlinepr any info on how deep that Namibian low was?


Check the link please, if you find out the info....

Link

The feeling you get is to prepare mentally if a real earthquake hits, to get the family out of the house...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Did you call them, or fill out the report form?


I always fill out the report form... those stats are usefull to be provided....
94L is still pretty much disorganized, but convection has been building for the last few hours, and some fairly cold tops are becoming more evident:

Click for an animated loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting JLPR2:


Oh yes you guys are closer to the epicenter.


See the already posted responses from PR and Sto. Domingo here

Link
Quoting sunlinepr:


I always fill out the report form... those stats are usefull to be provided....

Good deal. They even leave the report capability open on some archived earthquakes so people are able to go back and add to the "did you feel it?" database for events that happened long ago. Useful indeed...
163. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


See the already posted responses from PR and Sto. Domingo here

Link


Wow, Puertoricans are faster than I thought LOL!
Most of PRs reports are from the west and south regions.
Quoting JRRP:

but here in santo domingo we felt it strong


You can report it here

Link
Hi everybody. My first post here! Lurked most of the season but finally got the guts to join up at the end of the season. Hope you all are not too critical of me, since I am somewhat of a novice about weather.
166. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:


Oh yes you guys are closer to the epicenter.

yea
Man.... Dominican Republic - La Altagracia San Rafael del Yuma is only 57 km or 35 mi from the epicenter....

168. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:


You can report it here

Link

ok ahora mismo termine
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Hi everybody. My first post here! Lurked most of the season but finally got the guts to join up at the end of the season. Hope you all are not too critical of me, since I am somewhat of a novice about weather.


Welcome!

Magnitude 5.6 - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
2010 November 13 04:35:40 UTC
The good thing about the area, at least for the moment, is that it is releasing energy every day... through small tremors... Danger comes when you get no tremors for a couple of days and acumulated energy is released....

To: Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement issued 11/13/2010 at 12:38AM AST

At 12:36 AM Atlantic Standard Time on November 13, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 5.4 occurred 95 miles/153 Km southwest of Mayaguez, Puerto Rico .

The magnitude is such that a tsunami WILL NOT be generated. This will be the only WCATWC message issued for this event.

The location and magnitude are based on preliminary information. Further information will be issued by the United States Geological Survey or the Puerto Rico Seismic Network.

Link to Standard Information Statement
Link to XML/CAP Message
Link to Printable Message

Quoting JRRP:

ok ahora mismo termine


Bien, espero que todos alla esten bien y que no hayan perdidas de ningun tipo....
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Welcome!

I feel so welcome. That's my anthem! Can't believe you knew that song, and you played it. It's such ah, well, happy song!
M 5.6 - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
Alert Level: GREEN
Saturday, November 13th, 2010 at 04:35:40 UTC (00:35:40 local)
Location: 17.9° N, 68.6° WDepth: 96km
Event Id: USC0000A13
Alert Version: 1
Created: 19 minutes, 19 seconds after earthquake.
94L

Background Muse - Judy Blue Eyes

Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
I feel so welcome. That's my anthem! Can't believe you knew that song, and you played it. It's such ah, well, happy song!


It was one of my college days favorites. Yeah, I'm that old.

Looks like the cold air will remain to the north for a while - fine with me.
183. JRRP
lo que no entiendo es por q no hay replicas
184. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:


Bien, espero que todos alla esten bien y que no hayan perdidas de ningun tipo....

por lo menos hasta ahora no hay informe de daños

esperemos que no...
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It was one of my college days favorites. Yeah, I'm that old.

Looks like the cold air will remain to the north for a while - fine with me.


That's kind of a surprising graphic.

Even my NWS agency is hinting at cold weather here on Thanksgiving week, and we're in Texas. I believe that map will be changing.
Quoting JRRP:
lo que no entiendo es por q no hay replicas


Creo que es porque no es un terremoto sino un temblor.... todos los dias tiembla en RD y PR... Como no es un episodio mayor no hay otras consecuencias.....

Everyday we have tremors all along the Antilles...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's kind of a surprising graphic.

Even my NWS agency is hinting at cold weather here on Thanksgiving week, and we're in Texas. I believe that map will be changing.


PNA going negative, usu. means cold stays north. Hope so. CPC usually gets it right, and their confidence for 6-10 and 8-14 days is 4 out of 5.

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR
11N77W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA S OF 16N BETWEEN
71W-80W. AS THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WESTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT CONTINUES TO LOCATE
ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
94L (pre-Virginie?) looks better this morning, although ATCF says it's barely changed overnight with the exception of being just a little farther north than it was. The disturbance has some fairly dry air just to its north, but for now it seems to be dealing with it well enough to slowly organize:

AL, 94, 2010111312, , BEST, 0, 111N, 768W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Good Morning.
Morning! Looks like 94L's on its way to become Virginie.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning.
Good morning WNPR...Heard there was an earthquake not far from you.Angry mass of cotton...
La Niña and Wildfire Activity in Florida
(Increased Fire Danger Predicted for 2011)
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning WNPR...Heard there was an earthquake not far from you.Angry mass of cotton...

There was an earthquake? I didn't even know...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

There was an earthquake? I didn't even know...
I think it was in the Dominican Republic.
201. afj3
Quoting hydrus:
I think it was in the Dominican Republic.

How long ago?
Quoting afj3:

How long ago?
I dont Know...KEEPEROFTHEGATE may have something on his blog about it.
203. afj3
Quoting hydrus:
I dont Know...KEEPEROFTHEGATE may have something on his blog about it.

Link
A little blurb on it in the news....
Quoting afj3:

Link
A little blurb on it in the news....
Thank you..:)
guys give me a sitrep (meaning a update) on 94L
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys give me a sitrep (meaning a update) on 94L
You should give us an update...You are almost standing on it..:).. is fighting dry air to the N.W.quadrant...It is organizing slowly though...Water temp at 29 degrees..
Quoting hydrus:
I dont Know...KEEPEROFTHEGATE may have something on his blog about it.


Go back to post #147 in this blog last night and you can see what happened. They were on the blog when it happened.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Go back to post #147 in this blog last night and you can see what happened. They were on the blog when it happened.
Thank you Squawk..Someone on the news said that Haiti could have another big quake anytime. That the fault did not release all the stress it has stored in the earth,s crust. Therefore the possibility of a large earthquake in the same region. Not exactly welcome news for folks down there.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Go back to post #147 in this blog last night and you can see what happened. They were on the blog when it happened.

Before that, even; 137 & 139 were both by forum members who felt the quake...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Before that, even; 137 & 139 were both by forum members who felt the quake...
Live from the WU blog...Sounds scary..I have never felt an earthquake.
Quoting afj3:

How long ago?
Quoting JRRP:
lo que no entiendo es por q no hay replicas Aqui en el area oeste Puerto Rico,en Mayaguez, a 95 millas del epicentro se sinti pero muy poco.
Sure looks like it wants to make it to TD status; convection continues to fire up at and around the center to replace earlier blowups, and that convection is expanding in areal coverage. I imagine the pressure will be lower than 1009mb at the next update. This image is centered at 11.2N/76.4W:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
The GFS 00z and 06z are seriously wanting to develop 94L and a tropical wave that is currently on western Africa.
94L: Is predicted to form in about 36 to 48 hours on the GFS
Tropical Wave: The GFS shows it take a detour off the ITCZ and start heading toward the area where Tomas formed and forms pretty close to that area.
High Surf Advisory here in ECFL; otherwise a Chamber of Commerce Day for the Flamingo Follies Art Fair on Flagler Ave.
Nowcast as of 9:57 am EST on November 13, 2010
Now
strong low pressure system near Bermuda will create hazardous marine conditions for east central Florida through this weekend... A ridge of high pressure still aligned over the eastern United States will remain in place through tonight...as a large...powerful oceanic storm centered near Bermuda...continues to spin in place. Seas will build 8 to 11 feet within 20 nautical miles of the coast through tonight...while farther offshore seas will build 11 to 15 feet. Breaking waves will increase to between 8 and 11 feet during the early afternoon high tide today. Along with the rough surf...some cuts in The Sand Bar will develop...which will produce an increasing threat for strong rip currents during this afternoons outgoing tide. Boating and surf conditions will remain very hazardous through this weekend. Both a high surf advisory and a Small Craft Advisory remain in affect for the coastal and offshore regions...respectively. Additional details...including graphics are available online at: http://www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/mlb/blog.Php

Forecast for Coastal Volusia County

Updated: 3:36 am EST on November 13, 2010
High surf advisory in effect until 10 am EST Monday...
Today
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
» ZIP Code Detail
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. North winds around 5 mph.
Sunday
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
NFL: Date: Forecast:
Lions vs. Bills 1:00 PM EST on November 14, 2010 Chance of Rain, 59 °F
Vikings vs. Bears 12:00 PM CST on November 14, 2010 Partly Cloudy, 43 °F
College Football: Date: Forecast:
Bears vs. Big Green 12:00 PM EST on November 13, 2010 Clear, 58 °F
Eagles vs. Blue Devils 12:00 PM EST on November 13, 2010 Clear, 63 °F
Football (Soccer): Date: Forecast:
Vfl Osnabruck vs. Arminia Bielefeld 1:00 PM CET on November 13, 2010 Chance of Rain, High 57° F/ 14° C
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FSV Frankfurt 1:00 PM CET on November 13, 2010 Clear, High 57° F/ 14° C
NASCAR: Date: Forecast:
Ford 400 1:15 PM EST on November 21, 2010 Average High 79° F/ 26° C

Have a great Saturday everyone!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The GFS 00z and 06z are seriously wanting to develop 94L and a tropical wave that is currently on western Africa.
94L: Is predicted to form in about 36 to 48 hours on the GFS
Tropical Wave: The GFS shows it take a detour off the ITCZ and start heading toward the area where Tomas formed and forms pretty close to that area.

Hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane season continues!!!
94L= Virginie? 70% Of Forming At All
Pre-95L/Tropcial Wave= Walter? 25% Of Forming At All

There's A 55% Chance Of Exhausting the naming list.

Getting To The Greek Alphabet is Prob. 26% Chance
Quoting Bordonaro:

Hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane season continues!!!
My guess. The thing i find weird is that the GFS didnt predicted Puala and Richard but is predicting this.
Be Back Later....
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
My guess. The thing i find weird is that the GFS didnt predicted Puala and Richard but is predicting this.
Be Back Later....

:O)..The latest satellite map looks like August in the tropics..
New Blogg