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Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Patrap:
Most of the tourist flourish here in the Vieux Carre at Night easily.

Most fizzle after dawn as well.
That's French Quarter to most. When you go to the doctor for an earache hopefully he says your ear is infected or has a swimmer's ear rather than an otitis media/ externa. Always use the term most folks will understand, just saying. :)
105F in Houston Sunday , beat the old daily record by 7 degrees. 16 degrees above the average, and a new record high for the month of June.
1504. Patrap
le pays des merveilles de bonne nuit
Quoting tennisgirl08:
KORITHE MAN - nice blog post. it really answered some of my questions. why do we think the track will shift east? to me the models are still pretty spread at this point..


I agree with this, LT could go any where at this point....




Taco:0)
Quoting KoritheMan:

That could complicate things...


This is news to me, not sure what it will do in the matter. I don't remember seeing or missed this in the models I looked at today.
1508. beell
Quoting kmanislander:


A riddle within an enigma. Time to turn in. The convection is steadily expanding tonight so let's see where we stand tomorrow. We know that an intense cluster of thunderstorms has the capability to create a new area of lowest pressure underneath it.

Back in the morning.

Good night all.


Sounds like a plan, kman. Nite.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
105F in Houston Sunday , beat the old daily record by 7 degrees. 16 degrees above the average, and a new record high for the month of June.
Ouch.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


This is news to me, not sure what it will do in the matter. I don't remember seeing or missed this in the models I looked at today.
I agree. I have no idea where that came from?

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


This is news to me, not sure what it will do in the matter. I don't remember seeing or missed this in the models I looked at today.
No, it hasn't been shown in their upper vorticity forecasts.
Levi or Drak, did you guys pick up on the ULL organizing to the south of 94L, any input on that??
Why, thank you

Quoting tennisgirl08:
KORITHE MAN - nice blog post. it really answered some of my questions. why do we think the track will shift east? to me the models are still pretty spread at this point..
If the center relocates farther east, it would lie in closer proximity to the mid-oceanic trough, and the weakness in the western Atlantic ridge. Hence a more poleward track.

And I disagree about the models being spread. Even the GFS, which is the only one not sending this into the Gulf as an organized entity, does at least foresee some weak 850 mb energy making its way into the Gulf.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I agree. I have no idea where that came from?



Has to come up at 12:45am, lol. It will still be there in the morning. Have to think about this one...
1516. alfabob
It looks like any ULL more the the south is dissipating from the upper-level outflow being established. I think CIMSS is also off on the vorticity as there is a clear circulation established just south of Jamaica, which it says nothing about on any layer.
Quoting alfabob:
It looks like any ULL more the the south is dissipating from the upper-level outflow being established. I think CIMSS is also off on the vorticity as there is a clear circulation established just south of Jamaica, which it says nothing about on any layer.


Looking at WV, it is clearly evident and last few frames you can see the moisture drying up around it.
1518. alfabob
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Looking at WV, it is clearly evident and last few frames you can see the moisture drying up around it.

It looks more like it is collapsing from a straight on upper-level wind instead of wrapping up though, I can see it on RGB. There is some strong convection going on right now, so there is going to be a lot of upper level divergence.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Thank you very much!


My Thoughts:



I like it!!! Great graphic!
I noticed it this afternoon on the 200mb from CIMSS however, it was just a tiny little speck at the time and I didn't think anything of it. It's definitely growing, evident just by clicking the -3hrs tab. Have to sleep on this one though, interested to see what it brings to the table.
1521. alfabob
I think LLC is developed, now aiming for a COC; very solid ball of convection.
1522. JRRP
este sistema se ha tragado 2 ondas tropicales
y no ha hecho absolutamente nada!
1523. beell
IR Loop

Select the "Fronts" checkbox!
1524. alfabob
Doesn't look like much in terms of steering.
Nice convection popping up! :)

very impressive Circulation forming under the strong convection. should see a 50% or 60% at the TWO
1527. alfabob
The circulation that was left over before the burst of convection is on the NE side of it, so it could be a LLC just now making it under. 77.3W, 17.1N
Its not at the surface..latest surface reports has this still near 17N and 80.4W
Most of what you guys see is just above the surface from 2,500 feet up to 10,000 feet above the surface
1530. xcool



the center should be relocated by 8AM or so.
1532. alfabob
blog is slowing down a bit...
1534. xcool
;)
alfabob, seem that the circulation that the ascat caught is dissipating and a new circulation is forming south of Jamaica, near the convection, organization has increased a bit with 94L in the past few hours, so be interesting to see what the NHC has to say.
1536. Tygor
We were kind of hoping 93L or 94L would come to Texas, but it doesn't look like it's in the cards. 3/4" of rain in San Antonio since the first week of the year and people are starting to worry about the water supply. Already approaching Tier 3 of water restrictions and 0% of rain the next 10 days (which you can obviously take as a grain of salt). I'm not sure what stage 4 is but we might have a bunch of stinky people walking around ;)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
blog is slowing down a bit...
Its because we're approaching the blog dmin.

Lol. And tomorrow is a work day
1538. xcool
Quoting alfabob:


the MLC should worl itself down to the surface while continuing to drag current LLc into the MLC that is why it looks elongated
1541. docrod
Quoting Patrap:
le pays des merveilles de bonne nuit


bonne nuit
1542. alfabob
Yea the 5:15 image still shows convection increasing at the same rate, and since ascat is over 2 hours old a lot has probably changed. I think the blow up of convection in the NW is going to merge with the band and another forming on the other side. NHC will probably give at least a 60%.
tygor, LOL yeah remind me not to drive an hour to San Antonio. Here the drought is just as bad. although i guess were a bit lucky. we saw some heat showers that produced about a tenth of rain(or less) Southeast texas got some decent showers today(gulf produced of coarse) WE NEED A TROPICAL STORM NOW!!!!!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Its because we're approaching the blog dmin.

Lol. And tomorrow is a work day

its D-Max but I am sure that is what you ment
alfabob, not the least 60%, more like the most. Poll that the NHC is dealing with right now...
40%: 23% Chance
50%: 57% Chance
60%: 19% Chance
70%: 1% Chance
1546. JLPR2
The vort maps have me confused, just at what level is the circulation south of Jamaica? Thought it was mid-level but no decent reflection at the 500mb level. :\

Sheesh 94L is a confusing invest.
1547. alfabob
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


the MLC should worl itself down to the surface while continuing to drag current LLc into the MLC that is why it looks elongated

Idk if low pressure converges like that, but it looks like the old LLC is being flattened more than pulled into the new feature. They are two different circulations, that is why the band formed to the NW; and before the convection increased there was an isolated area in the center.
Nice weather here....Rainy... Good for sleeping...





000
ABNT20 KNHC 060541
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS SEPARATED
FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 060541
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS SEPARATED
FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting xcool:



cmc is crazy
the organization and structure looking at the visible would coax me to think that it could be 60%, but the most likely % is 50%
DANGIT MIAMI
1554. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Nice weather here....Rainy... Good for sleeping...







Yeah, going to do that soon.
1555. alfabob
So NHC is giving a % on the chance of the collapsing LLC forming in an increasingly sheared environment?
1556. xcool
Twinkster - cmc flip-flopping.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

its D-Max but I am sure that is what you ment
I meant blog dmin. Like the time of minimal activity on the blog in terms of posting
40% Chance Still, pretty agreeable move i have to say by the NHC, need to see a surface circulation form under the convection South of Jamaica, then youll see the NHC up the %
1559. JRRP
would be interesting to see in the morning
1560. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 060541
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS SEPARATED
FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


ha! Seems appropriate considering we have no idea if a new circulation is cooking underneath the convection.
I think Recon will fly into 94L, its looking much better, Cmon 94L! Keep it up, so Recon can fly, and answer some of the questions that you keep making us ask.
Good early morning everyone... Going to sleep... very weary O.O
been watching the continuous cycles of organization and convection that is 94L... Good monday to all, bye
1564. alfabob
It doesn't make sense why NHC is watching the old circulation which is evident by that update and where they drew the circle. The old LLC is elongated and headed into 40-50kt shear (its not even a circulation anymore), there should be a 20% of that area or less. If on the other-hand they moved it over to the new area and a new LLC actually exists, I would give it a 60% by looking at the current convection. That would all depend on if the convection persists throughout the night though. Potentially dangerous situation.
Hey, everybody. Just checking in 4 two minutes - can't sleep for some reason.

Quoting Levi32:
As fresh as they come:

It would seem that the low remains broad and has not relocated yet.

This is basically what I saw before I left this p.m..... the area of low pressure was still too broad to allow any serious development. It really needs to tighten up tonight if it's going to get going anytime soon.

Are models still not putting 94L N of Cuba before the end of the week?
1566. alfabob
1567. xcool
;
Quoting alfabob:
It doesn't make sense why NHC is watching the old circulation which is evident by that update and where they drew the circle. The old LLC is elongated and headed into 40-50kt shear (its not even a circulation anymore), there should be a 20% of that area or less. If on the other-hand the moved it over to the new area and a new LLC actually exists, I would give it a 60% by looking at the current convection. That would all depend on if the convection persists throughout the night though.

I think that they don't know what to do so they just left it at 40% I think they know about reformation of the COC but they want to wait for convection to increase and for them to get the first vis sat image and also that the old COC is nearly dead in the water
1569. alfabob
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think that they don't know what to do so they just left it at 40% I think they know about reformation of the COC but they want to wait for convection to increase and for them to get the first vis sat image and also that the old COC is nearly dead in the water

Possibly, I couldn't imagine them not noticing it. I think they will wait for the old one to die and then instead of creating 95L they will just reposition it onto the other circulation.
1570. JLPR2
Quoting alfabob:
It doesn't make sense why NHC is watching the old circulation which is evident by that update and where they drew the circle. The old LLC is elongated and headed into 40-50kt shear (its not even a circulation anymore), there should be a 20% of that area or less. If on the other-hand they moved it over to the new area and a new LLC actually exists, I would give it a 60% by looking at the current convection. That would all depend on if the convection persists throughout the night though. Potentially dangerous situation.


There is no concrete proof that a new LLC exists, I guess that's why they kept the circle with the old LLC. If by tomorrow it becomes evident a new circulation formed they will then move the circle and up the probability.
1571. xcool
1572. Walshy
Down the Road...
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT June 5 2011
==================================

Satellite images during the past few hours indicate that the area of disturbed weather centered about 450 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico has changed little in organization. However, environmental conditions remains very favorable for development.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
There is a HIGH chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Look at this, possibly the first cyclone of the 2011 pacific hurricane season:
1575. emguy
Hurricane Center pretty much has this nailed. Satellite imagery is pretty telling. Based on appearance, best convection is off to the east and northeast and removed from the center. Mean time, being a broad low pressure system, there is no per say center of circulation and there will not be one for some time (that is if it even gets itself together). Only thing to track is a "point" of lowest pressure, which will likely bounce around erratically within this broad area in the coming days. Either way, a nice broad system would be awesome news in Florida because it could provide widespread, but very beneficial rainfall with no additional affects. If development did occur, It would need to tighten up quickly before the shear returns in 2 days. Either way, this is a true June atttempt. Something everyone gets excited about, but little to no chance of being more than a 50-60 mph deal at peak if it actually did manage to get together, which it has no signs of doing so now.
Quoting Walshy:


hmm interesting. 2 weeks out. But still interesting
1577. xcool
wow 94L
1578. Walshy
Quoting xcool:
wow 94L


wow
It's raining in San Diego right now!

Pretty rare to see rain in June, but thanks to that cut off low sitting off of central California, were getting a few showers. Sierra Nevadas are likely getting some more snow on the 8000 ft plus peeks which is really out of season and is coming in addition to what is already a record year in terms of snow for the entire mountain range as well much of the Rooky mountains
1580. alfabob
Strong circulation clearly evident between the convection just south of jamaica and the convection below the small gap to the south of that. (77.6W, 17.2N)

Quoting TomTaylor:
the Rooky mountains
The what? :)


Shear on the up, unfortunately for 94L. Anti-cylcone aloft is moving away from 94L.

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Shear on the up, unfortunately for 94L. Anti-cylcone aloft is moving away from 94L.
If indeed that convection isn't the signification of a possible center reformation, then I think it's safe to bid adieu to 94L.
1584. Mikla
Folks keep talking about the LLC being to the East, but the ASCAT pass does not support that. It is still around 81W, 16.5N...
Given Satellite loops, the coc was very clearly South of Jamaica before convection fired there... it is quite obvious, given that a few hours ago before convection fired there, you could see the spin....
1586. ackee
Quoting alfabob:
Strong circulation clearly evident between the convection just south of jamaica and the convection below the small gap to the south of that. (77.6W, 17.2N)
I agree with dont see the centre where the NHC has it too hope recon will go out there later
1587. Hugo7
Quoting Mikla:
Folks keep talking about the LLC being to the East, but the ASCAT pass does not support that. It is still around 81W, 16.5N...


People are going off of the visual circulation of cloud tops. They are not going off what of the lower level winds.

Quoting Hugo7:

 They are not going off what of the lower level winds.
I've been following the low cloud motions all evening. There is still a broad circulation in that vicinity, I agree. But it appears to be quite diffuse and is losing its luster. Whereas there was evidence of weak cyclonic banding in the vicinity of the mid-level circulation several hours ago.

If I am indeed incorrect in my thinking, I will be the first to admit it.
1589. Mikla
I may be in the minority, but I don't think there was a LLC S of Jamaica in the past 12 hours. It appears the upper level winds gives the appearence of a spin as the heat is vented off to the E from the anti-cyclone.

Also, the decending ASCAT pass shows no sign of a previous LLC...

But I have been wrong once before...

In any case, I think the NHC will go ahead with the afternoon recon flight.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST June 6 2011
==================================

Bay Of Bengal
-------------

Broken intense to very intense convection over Bay of Bengal south of 11.0N east of 83.0E and between 12.5N to 15.5N and 82.5E to 91.0E, northeast Andaman Sea. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over northeast Bay of Bengal and Arkan coast and rest Bay of Bengal south of 18.0N east of 83.0E, gulf of Martaban, Tenasserim coast, and rest Andaman Sea.

Arabian Sea
------------------

Low level circulation over Arabian Sea off Maharastra coast has intensified into a low pressure area over central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea. The vortex is the INSAT imagery is centered near 19.0N 71.5E with Dvorak intensity of 1.0. The chance of this low pressure to intensify further into a depression during the next 24 hours is MODERATE.

Associated broken intense to very intense convection over Arabian Sea (Cloud Top Temperatures -80C) north of 12.5N east of 68.0E and adjoining exterior south Guj and adjoining Gulf of Cambay.
Quoting Mikla:
I may be in the minority, but I don't think there was a LLC S of Jamaica in the past 12 hours. It appears the upper level winds gives the appearence of a spin as the heat is vented off to the E from the anti-cyclone.

Also, the decending ASCAT pass shows no sign of a previous LLC...

But I have been wrong once before...

In any case, I think the NHC will go ahead with the afternoon recon flight.


If you look carefully, you can see a slight curvature of the wind barbs at about 77.8W, 15.8N, that could be the infamous LLC. I don't think that LLC is nearly as well defined as a lot of others do though.
1592. Walshy
Convection exploding as one would expect.

Quoting KoritheMan:

The what? :)
You know, the place where a certain black bird is found.
1594. Ylee
I always liked that card game.....
Quoting Ylee:
I always liked that card game.....


Mornin Ylee....Hope u not workin too hard!!
Bay of Bengal huh, anyone have a link to the disturbance in there dam sst's there are very hot, better not be another developing cyclone nargis.Dam worst human tradgedy of the modern era, may 2008 with stay with me forever looking at that aftermath and death toll there, to this day they are still pulling up skeleto remains from the river banks and rice fields.
1597. Walshy
Points of Origin



94L looks really good, I think it took some energy and organization from 91E
94l is like 91l earlier this year-it has last chance.This last chance is today so it would be interesting.I bet the chance for TD1 is 60%
1600. aquak9
Good morning, good day, where ever you may be.

I see Ike has a high temp of 102º today, so ya'll go easy on him.
94l is like 91l earlier this year-it has last chance.This last chance is today so it would be interesting.I bet the chance for TD1 is 60%
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
94l is like 91l earlier this year-it has last chance.This last chance is today so it would be interesting.I bet the chance for TD1 is 60%


94L has much more of a chance than 91L ever did. Still not entirely convinced though, I would say we'll get another 40%.
Good morning everyone. Here is an excerpt from Crown Weather's update this morning.

A broad area of low pressure, labeled Invest 94-L, was located about 175 miles to the south of Grand Cayman. The heaviest convection associated with 94-L was separated both to the west and to the east from the center of circulation which is the low pressure system. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system from today through about Tuesday or Wednesday. After that, environmental conditions will become unfavorable and whatever becomes of Invest 94-L will become highly sheared.

Given the better organized structure that is clearly visible on satellite imagery, the deep thunderstorm activity that is occurring and the fact that it is currently under quite favorable environmental conditions, I do think Invest 94-L will go ahead and try to develop into a tropical depression during the day today or tonight and then very possibly tropical storm Arlene as we get into Tuesday or Wednesday. A reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate 94-L this afternoon to determine whether it is indeed a tropical depression.
1604. aquak9
Time's gonna run out soon on alignment.
dry air is no longer a issue for invest 94, just the wind shear to the nw problematic for invest 94, convection seems to be on the up end of the cycle this early morning, sst's to the nw have a pocket 2 full degrees warmer, this might be the little engine that could get the name arlene.
Ahh Crown Weather.Remember last year Ike, lol? good morning aquak.Looks like the models are really backing off on this system.Well to quote Ike "0-0-0."unlike a lot of kiddies out for school on the blog i personally hope it stays that way.Have a bad feeling it want though.i fear a neutralseason more than a la Nina just my take anyway have a great day and God Bless.
Quoting mikeylikesyouall:
dry air is no longer a issue for invest 94, just the wind shear to the nw problematic for invest 94, convection seems to be on the up end of the cycle this early morning, sst's to the nw have a pocket 2 full degrees warmer, this might be the little engine that could get the name arlene.
Rob from Crown Weather seems to think it stands a good chance of that happening.
1608. IKE
Good morning.

I'll go with 40% on 94L. Time is running out on it...soon.
1609. aquak9
Good beautiful morning, Saint my friend.

I would not mind rain here, winds below forty and lotsa rain. I think that's all we want.

Crown does excellent meteorological synopsis, but his hopefulness tends to be underlying in his opinions.

Enjoying the lower gas prices- I too, do not wanna see anything bigger than a TD enter the Gulf.
Good morniing everyone from St. Andrew, Jamaica. I am not sure what is happening on the blog but you probably know it rained all night again last night.

It is now raining, very bleak and heavily overcast where I am and I am sure it is worse in parishes such as St. Thomas and Portland. This trend could cause serious damages to some parishes especially loss to farmers and the economy. So far I have received only one unconfirmed report of a fisherman drowning at sea yesterday. We need the water but not the flooding which is now likely.

See you later.
either a midlevel or a LLC is forming to the south of the tip of western jamaica and the old LLC the one the NHC is analyzing is headed west towards the convection in the NW carribean
1612. emcf30
Good morning all.
I see that 94L is holding on as I and others anticipated and the models tracks are once again starting to, as aquak calls it looks like a spider. All the local mets are now calling attention to this feature with a increase of rain chance in CFL for this weekend. One could only hope. Watch out today for tornadoes in Central/Eastern Montana and Eastern Wisconsin/North-central Michigan. Conditions will be ripe for large tornadoes this afternoon and evening.
1613. pottery
Good Morning all.
A Glorious One, here.

I see that "Annoying Arlene" (just to give it a name) is still causing Confusion.

I think that DMin and Shear and everything else later today might just be too much for her. It was fun, but Good Riddance!
next TWO will be out within the hour , i am intrested to see what the NHC says
Quoting IKE:
Good morning.

I'll go with 40% on 94L. Time is running out on it...soon.

Hi Ike!
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
A Glorious One, here.

I see that "Annoying Arlene" (just to give it a name) is still causing Confusion.

I think that DMin and Shear and everything else later today might just be too much for her. It was fun, but Good Riddance!
we need the rain in florida or the areas around the gulf coast , as long as it stays a TD or a tropical storm or a low pressure i dont care we need rain real bad
Good morning.

Puerto Rico is under a flash flood watch until Tuesday because of the long tail from 94L that is moving north.

About 94L, I am on the 40% at 8 AM TWO camp too.
1618. IKE

Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Hi Ike!
Hey.....


1619. pottery
Quoting Seflhurricane:
we need the rain in florida or the areas around the gulf coast , as long as it stays a TD or a tropical storm or a low pressure i dont care we need rain real bad

Yeah! I realise you have had a really bad dry.
I hope you get some good rains soon.
Heard from my sister who is near Tuscon Arizona this morning, it's bad there too, and burning.
Not good at all....
1620. Bitmap7
Florida:

Somewhere in the sahara:
Conditions at 42057 as of
(5:50 am EST)
1050 GMT on 06/06/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NE ( 43 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 79.7 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.7 °
What are my instructions for the day?!
1623. pottery
Quoting presslord:
What are my instructions for the day?!

Bring Coffee.
Quoting pottery:

Bring Coffee.


On it!
1625. scott39
Dry air is not a problem for 94L anymore. The circulation is still broad and elongated. Lets hope some rain makes it to Florida or the Gulf Coast!
1626. pottery
Quoting presslord:


On it!

Good!
And at about 8;30 we will expect eggs, pancakes, sausages, bacon and stuff because we have to mix 10 cu.yds of concrete this morning.
So get out of that dress and get moving!
WATER VAPOR

Wind shear just to the north and west of 94L is at 40kts. I guess that is what the NHC is speaking about unfavorable conditions.
1630. emcf30
1631. pottery
What is the Lat-Lon of that buoy, Hurrycane?
Quoting pottery:

Good!
And at about 8;30 we will expect eggs, pancakes, sausages, bacon and stuff because we have to mix 10 cu.yds of concrete this morning.
So get out of that dress and get moving!



Morning everyone... not sure I was ready for that image....
Quoting Bitmap7:
Florida:

Somewhere in the sahara:

Oh my gosh!In Poland we also have drought,yesterday they was 120 forest fires,and I don't see the end of this in next days...
Quoting pottery:
What is the Lat-Lon of that buoy, Hurrycane?


19.802 N 84.857 W (19%uFFFD48'6" N 84%uFFFD51'24" W)

BUOY 42056 WNW of the Cayman Islands

1635. emcf30
1636. IKE
High seems to be moving west while 94L is moving NW....


hmmmm i think 91E has lost its ch of be coming a TD the nhc sould have done it sat
1638. pottery
Quoting Hurrykane:


19.802 N 84.857 W (19°48'6" N 84°51'24" W)

Thanks.
Interesting drop there...
1639. scott39
Quoting IKE:
High seems to be moving west while 94L is moving NW....


Is the wind shear forecasted to die down N of 94L?
Quoting IKE:
High seems to be moving west while 94L is moving NW....




Leaving it behind. Things certainly aren't getting better for 94L.
Quoting pottery:

Thanks.
Interesting drop there...


Welcome pottery. Kinda makes you wonder.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hmmmm i think 91E has lost its ch of be coming a TD the nhc sould have done it sat

Dude, it's restoring it's convecton.
1644. IKE

Quoting scott39:
Is the wind shear forecasted to die down N of 94L?
I don't think so.


Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Leaving it behind. Things certainly aren't getting better for 94L.
I think the odds of this becoming a TS are low.
1645. ncstorm
Good Morning..

The latest GFS run has been consistent on a storm off the SE Atlantic coast for a while now..around the 16th..
1646. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:
Hey Ike, I think we got a little treat the other night with that Thing that developed up near you and drove southwest to fwb/destin...

all kinds of boats stuck out in Santa Rosa sound for Billy Bowlegs Festival. that storm had the most lightning I have ever seen.
The worst of it went south of me. Got .12 inches of rain...total for the weekend.
Quoting TexasGulf:
A nice storm cell moved through Kingwood, Texas (NE of Houston) about 7:00pm. We just got power restored about 10:00pm.

There was some marble sized hail and about 1" of welcome rain in the span of 1/2 an hour. The wind was outrageous, though. Wind gusts at a neighborhood level were every bit as high as those I saw in the eye-wall of Hurricane Ike. My rough guesstimate would be winds in the 70-80 mph range, pretty much constant for about 15-minutes. Several trees went down in the neighborhood, trash cans blowing down the street... the usual stuff. It was quite a powerful little storm cell. At one point, from the swirling and change in wind direction, I could swear it was trying to produce a vortex.

Anyway, that was impressive for such a small, isolated storm cell.


By the time it hit Spring, it had died down a little. Lots of straight line gusts (some branches down, etc) and rain for about 30 minutes which I am very grateful for. We did not lose power though we did earlier in the day when the storms were well away from us.
I would estimate 1/4 inch of rain. After yesterdays 105 degree high it was a welcome relief.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT MISSION HAS BEEN RESCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
1649. pottery
Quoting earthlydragonfly:



Morning everyone... not sure I was ready for that image....

Sorry about that.
Kind of puts a damper on an otherwise nice day.

:):))
Quoting scott39:
Is the wind shear forecasted to die down N of 94L?
1651. scott39
Quoting IKE:

I don't think so.


I think the odds of this becoming a TS are low.
If it has no protection and the wind shear doesnt relax...then it better make TD today. Hopefully rain will still make it to someone.
Still 40% with 8 AM TWOAT
No change as far as the NHC is concerned then.
1654. pottery
No recon today!
The odds of 94L even becoming a tropical depression are less then 10%..I think they cancel the recon once again today...wind shear is taking its toll on 94L..Tropics are very quiet for now...
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Leaving it behind. Things certainly aren't getting better for 94L.

As I say-today is the last chance for it.Little to no chances thereafter
1658. IKE
"""THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY""".....

Another recon canceled....my guess.

0-0-0.

$$
Quoting pottery:

Sorry about that.
Kind of puts a damper on an otherwise nice day.

:):))



Lol.... lets just put it behind us.

1660. ncstorm
so now the NGP got 94L doing an ernesto..the CMC got a east coast drive by..the GFS loses it but has something coming into the gulf around the 21st, GFDL has it heading for the panhandle and it looks like the ECWMF has it off the east coast of florida..talk about all over the place..
1661. Walshy
NO RECON TODAY
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


SHEAR FORECAST...5 DAYS:

1663. MahFL
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

The latest GFS run has been consistent on a storm off the SE Atlantic coast for a while now..around the 16th..


Will it come to JAX as a Hurricane ? lol.
1664. Walshy
Down the Road
1665. IKE


1666. afj3
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT MISSION HAS BEEN RESCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
1668. scott39
Where did that lady go? I hear her clearing her throat! mememe--cough--cough--mememe
1669. IKE
I see why the NHC talks about "becoming unfavorable"....

48 hour shear...look at the NW Caribbean....



1670. IKE
Ooops.....my bad....I'm a poor reader....

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT MISSION HAS BEEN RESCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.



1671. pottery
There is a pair of Toucans making loud "cheeping" noises in the top of a tree outside.
I'm going to join them.

See you all at breakfast. Presslord is fixin' it right now...
1672. MahFL
Just west of Jamica it appears there is no shear at all.
1673. emcf30
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

The latest GFS run has been consistent on a storm off the SE Atlantic coast for a while now..around the 16th..


NC I brought that same thing up on here yesterday. Development of a system North of the Bahamas and sticking around for a few days. I think it may be something to watch out for tho its way to early to make any solid predictions.
1674. bappit
News from the Houston area NWS:

Climate...
the high temperature at Houston reached 105 degrees on Sunday. This is the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June. The previous warmest June temperature was 104 degrees established on June 24th and June 26th 2009. The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th 1954. Records for the city of Houston date back to 1891 and there have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees.

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

New maximum temperature records (houston) have been established on four out of the first five days of June. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (june 5th) by seven...yes seven degrees.
Come on already. Get it together
1676. FLdewey
Quoting pottery:
No recon today!

Have you seen the price of JetA?

I wouldn't be surprised if they waited until it was in range of the Cessna.
Thw window for 94L to develop continues to dwindle.
Miami NWS Discussion

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE THIS FAR OUT INTO EXTENDED
FORECAST...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SLOWLY
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE PROBABILITIES BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
1679. ncstorm
Quoting emcf30:


NC I brought that same thing up on here yesterday. Development of a system North of the Bahamas and sticking around for a few days. I think it may be something to watch out for tho its way to early to make any solid predictions.


I agree..its not like the GFS to hold onto a storm so far out..
1680. IKE

Quoting bappit:
News from the Houston area NWS:

Climate...
the high temperature at Houston reached 105 degrees on Sunday. This is the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June. The previous warmest June temperature was 104 degrees established on June 24th and June 26th 2009. The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th 1954. Records for the city of Houston date back to 1891 and there have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees.

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

New maximum temperature records (houston) have been established on four out of the first five days of June. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (june 5th) by seven...yes seven degrees.
Yes....I think the planet is warming. Is it reversible? Unlikely to me, but possible.

Looking at a water vapor of the GOM and western Caribbean. Easy to see the ULL in the western GOM. Time is running out on 94L. It'll wind up a sheared mess.
1681. scott39
Maybe if we talk trash about 94L, that will really tick her off and she will want to do something! Thats how I motivate the associates at work! J/K
Quoting bappit:
News from the Houston area NWS:

Climate...
the high temperature at Houston reached 105 degrees on Sunday. This is the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June. The previous warmest June temperature was 104 degrees established on June 24th and June 26th 2009. The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th 1954. Records for the city of Houston date back to 1891 and there have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees.

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

New maximum temperature records (houston) have been established on four out of the first five days of June. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (june 5th) by seven...yes seven degrees.


Yes we are desperate for rain right now
Morning everyone.Clear skies here on Grand Cayman just now, but some big clouds moving in, more much needed rain on the menu for today
ATCF says pressure is down another notch:

AL, 94, 2011060612, , BEST, 0, 177N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 275, 125, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Getting there. Slowly...
Just updated...

Quoting superpete:
Morning everyone.Clear skies here on Grand Cayman just now, but some big clouds moving in, more much needed rain on the menu for today


Good morning, yes I think somehow you will get your rain soon.
Quoting scott39:
Maybe if we talk trash about 94L, that will really tick her off and she will want to do something! Thats how I motivate the associates at work! J/K
Quoting scott39:
Maybe if we talk trash about 94L, that will really tick her off and she will want to do something! Thats how I motivate the associates at work! J/K

OK,I'll try:) 94l has 0% chance for developing,or even less.Shear is to high for it
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just updated...



...so...It's gonna go somewhere between Matamoros and Liverpool?!
Quoting superpete:
Morning everyone.Clear skies here on Grand Cayman just now, but some big clouds moving in, more much needed rain on the menu for today
We had a heavy rain up here about 20 min. ago. Sky still overcast.
1690. scott39
If nothing else right now...94L is definitely moistening up!


Pottery sounds idyllic. I can bring some Samsula watermelon :)
Any chance the left hand blob is what Walshy is showing in post 1664?
system needs to be more circular doubt if recon goes nevertheless the greater antillias is in for a good soaker
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Thw window for 94L to develop continues to dwindle.

plenty of time to do what it wants
Quoting islander101010:

plenty of time to do what it wants


NHC discussion this morning said it will sit there until Wednesday when upper level winds become less favorable.
1697. scott39
It has the most convection around the circulation, that I have seen so far.
Quoting islander101010:

plenty of time to do what it wants


I don't think 94L has a say in the matter :)
1699. Hugo7
Least 91 still has a good chance at something. Convection really firing up on it.
1701. hydrus
Quoting Chicklit:


NHC discussion this morning said it will sit there until Wednesday when upper level winds become less favorable.
It should have a shot at depression status with all that moisture around it.
1702. fishcop
Woke up to a broken AC unit at 6am and it's already 84 degrees inside the apartment. Gonna be a hot day on Grand Cayman. The bulk of this rain seems to be teasing us here - we need a down pour so bad.
I have the COC of 94L at 16.8/79.2, sorry I just don't see any other area with a hint circulation
1704. HCW
Have a great day :)

Quoting Hugo7:
Least 91 still has a good chance at something. Convection really firing up on it.


Looks like NHC is preparing to start advisories on 91E, they did a forecast at the 06Z model cycle.


EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 0 109N 982W 25 0 DB
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 12 114N 987W 25 0 DB
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 24 122N 994W 30 0 TD
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 36 128N 1000W 40 0 TS
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 48 136N 1007W 60 0 TS
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 48 136N 1007W 60 0 TS
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 72 155N 1025W 75 0 HU
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 72 155N 1025W 75 0 HU
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 96 166N 1045W 85 0 HU
EP 91 2011060606 03 OFCL 120 170N 1055W 85 0 HU
Quoting stormpetrol:
I have the COC of 94L at 16.8/79.2, sorry I just don't see any other area with a hint circulation
That's what it looks like to me too.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
the heat of the day does it in today just over 36 hrs remain for it to do something my forecast calls for just rain however and i see the recoons are not even going so that itself should tell us what we need to know
So much moisture for Florida! All of that is going to be pulled northward into the gulf, regardless of what becomes of 94. As it enters the se gulf, the shear will do its work and Florida will be covered in moderate rain :)
1709. scott39
94L "looks" more impressive this morning...with the storms firing up.
1710. Grothar
1711. Grothar
1712. aquak9
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the heat of the day does it in today just over 36 hrs remain for it to do something my forecast calls for just rain however and i see the recoons are not even going so that itself should tell us what we need to know


the recoons are sleeping in, after partying and eating my garden all night
1713. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
00Z Late Cycle Dynamic Models:

1715. scott39
I dont know much about a TC developing. I think I know this much though.... If 94L keeps moving in the same general direction at the same forward speed for the next 24 to 48 hours... I dont see how it cannot develope to at least TD status before its demise in the GOM??
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.85N/101.3W
1717. cg2916
94L lost it's organization and possible circulation. What happened?
1718. hydrus
Looks kind of busy for June...
Quoting aquak9:


the recoons are sleeping in, after partying and eating my garden all night


Recoons! do they have Rabies? ;)
1720. Hugo7
Quoting hydrus:
It should have a shot at depression status with all that moisture around it.
When I look at this map I still see just a broad area of circulation. And at the end of the play I begin to see what looks like two sepperate areas of circulation begining to form, but can't tell for sure. I do however see one very defined area of circulation were 91E is.
1721. cg2916
Quoting hydrus:
Looks kind of busy for June...


LOL.


I Found the Center!
1723. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.85N/101.3W
Good morning Keep. What are your thoughts on 94L..It does seem to be organizing slowly.
1724. aquak9
SammyWB- no, they are happy and healthy with hearty appetites...
1725. IKE
"""I wuz canceled?"""




1726. hydrus
Quoting Hugo7:
When I look at this map I still see just a broad area of circulation. And at the end of the play I begin to see what looks like two sepperate areas of circulation begining to form, but can't tell for sure. I do however see one very defined area of circulation were 91E is.
I have seen multiple vorts with this thing from the beginning..I think monsoon troughs love having little spins inside them.
1727. aquak9
Yes, Ike...it's been a Recoon Recall.
the tropical wave around 50w has alittle weak low on it around 49w 23n wonder if this will get shot ne and weaken or west.
Quoting aquak9:
SammyWB- no, they are happy and healthy with hearty appetites...


Hey aquak9,

Florida might finally get some rain!

1730. scott39
Is it just me....or does 94L look more impressive as time goes on today??
1731. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????
1732. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Is it just me....or does 94L look more impressive as time goes on today??


That happens in bars too, around 2:00 AM.
Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????


Yes.
1734. scott39
Quoting Grothar:


That happens in bars too, around 2:00 AM.
Yea, and then sometimes about 8:00am it goes to near 0%!
NGP (120 Hours)




Grothar is in rare form this morning.
Quoting IKE:
"""I wuz canceled?"""






lol IKE!
I did not expect to see 94L fall apart overnight but it looks like it may be trying to come together over the past few hours. Again, recon was canceled. It should have been moved to later instead of canceled all together. Thats the NHC for you.
Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????


Levi and Drak were on?!? What did they say???


;)
1740. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:
NGP (120 Hours)







Perfect...

Morning All. I see 94L sorted out some confusion from last night. Pretty obvious where it's located now and will remain.
Quoting Chicklit:
Any chance the left hand blob is what Walshy is showing in post 1664?


The left hand blob is definitely more interesting to me than the right hand blob and have been watching it since early yesterday. MAYBE it will flow up and over Florida with RAIN????????? Crossing fingers and toes! Good morning all.
1743. scott39
Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????
I hear ya...Nobody recognizes my level of expertise either!
Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????
No. Drak has been on forever, and Levi posts his own forecast blogs near-daily. I usually give good (or at least decent) info myself, and I never get huge greetings, either.
In general, when looking at the model guidance maps, the TVCC and TVCN are pretty good.
I'm at the Western end of Jamaica. Rain showers, grey skies, low fast moving clouds with light winds.
Updated SST Anomalies... slight cooling around Cape Verde Islands.






Last Year


94L still has a Decent chance of attaining TD Status...

IMO nothing more than a 45 mph TS during its life.


Quoting Chicklit:
Grothar is in rare form this morning.
I thought that was more "normal" for him...
Quoting scott39:
I hear ya...Nobody recognizes my level of expertise either!


I does.
1751. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????
Notoriety and fame are commonly confused with each other. :)
Quoting jeffs713:
No. Drak has been on forever, and Levi posts his own forecast blogs near-daily. I usually give good (or at least decent) info myself, and I never get huge greetings, either.


Same. Lol... We are all in the same boat.
1753. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yes.


Weel, you are a man of few words. Too bad you can't keep it that way. :P
hey guys I think that kinda movement with the current low could happen moves back east

1755. scott39
Quoting Hurrykane:


I does.
Well theres one... that doesnt know any better!
who said they expected landfall at wk ago in the big bend area this coming wkend? that character could be the champ.
1757. Grothar
Quoting BobinTampa:


Levi and Drak were on?!? What did they say???


;)


Not much, but it was awsome. :P
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Perfect...

Morning All. I see 94L sorted out some confusion from last night. Pretty obvious where it's located now and will remain.




Do you guys see the center also??
1761. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
I hear ya...Nobody recognizes my level of expertise either!


You know that I always answer you when you are on and I have always given recognition to your level of expertise, no matter how limited it may be.
1763. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Notoriety and fame are commonly confused with each other. :)


You mean like Lindsey Lohan?
Good morning all

A few quick posts.

The surface low of 94L seems to have passed between us and the buoy 42057 between midnight and this morning as that buoy had West winds from about that time and we have NE to ENE winds. Pressure here was down to 1007 mbs late last night and is now 1008 and rising.

The blow up near Jamaica is still interesting though as that is where the 500 mb vorticity is now to be found. The 700 and 850 mb vort continues Westward with the surface feature. It remains to be seen if a new low develops South of Jamaica or not but 94L is one disorganized system.

Here is the wind data from the buoy

06 06 5:50 am WSW 5.8 7.8 4.3 8 5.9 NE 29.71 +0.00 80.6 82.6 79.7 - - -
06 06 4:50 am WSW 5.8 9.7 3.9 7 5.9 NE 29.72 -0.01 81.0 82.8 78.8 - - -
06 06 3:50 am S 3.9 5.8 4.3 7 5.9 NE 29.72 -0.02 81.1 82.8 79.3 - - -
06 06 2:50 am W 1.9 3.9 3.9 7 5.9 NE 29.72 - 81.1 82.8 77.5 - - -
06 06 1:50 am WNW 1.9 3.9 4.3 8 6.0 NNE 29.72 - 81.0 82.9 78.6 - - -
06 06 12:50 am W 3.9 5.8 3.9 7 5.7 NE 29.74 -0.05 80.8 82.9 79.5 - - -
06 05 11:50 pm SW 1.9 3.9 3.6 7 5.7 NE 29.77 +0.00 80.1 82.8 78.4 - - -
06 05 10:50 pm NNE 9.7 17.5 4.3 7 5.8 NE 29.79 - 79.3 82.8 77.4 - - -
1765. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Yes, Ike...it's been a Recoon Recall.
lol
Quoting Grothar:


That happens in bars too, around 2:00 AM.
lol
Center is closer to 17.8N;81.8W
Link
Quoting Grothar:


You mean like Lindsey Lohan?


You were right Grothar,

The models appear to have a general trend toward taking 94L and sending it in the direction of West South Florida / The Panhandle...

I think we will finally get some rain!

1768. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


You know that I always answer you when you are on and I have always given recognition to your level of expertise, no matter how limited it may be.
It is my opinion that a high number of people do a great job forecasting storms on this blog. Especially when atmospheric conditions are not tremendously complex.
Quoting sammywammybamy:




Do you guys see the center also??
I wouldn't call that a center, per se. Its very elongated and diffuse, nothing like a solid & tight LLC.
1770. Grothar
Well, if you don't mind. I would like to give you a video I did many years on the weather. I hope you like it. I wish it had subtitle. If you like it, I can do a regular one on local weather here. Mind you I was just a kid.



SammyWB,

When they finished in your garden, the racoons paid a visit to mine and tore up everything. They also destroyed a bluebird nest and got to the eggs even though I have a predator guard on the bluebird house.

I learned a lesson about the bluebird house. The birds did not use their first nest. I've read that bluebirds do this often....build decoy nests. They returned recently and built a second nest on top of the first one which raised the level of the nest, putting it within reach of a predator like a racoon in spite of the guard. I should have removed the first nest. I cleaned out the box so maybe they will try again.

About racoons and rabies........I have read that racoons are carriers of rabies. My neighbors humanely trap and release them elsewhere.

Hope you can restore your garden.

We need rain so badly here along the northern Gulf Coast. May 94L bring us some. I appreciate all the good info so many of you take the time to post

Wishing everyone and everyone's gardens a good week.

Steel

Quoting Grothar:


You know that I always answer you when you are on and I have always given recognition to your level of expertise, no matter how limited it may be.


Hey Grothar...thanks for your contributions here.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Praying for the western tracks. Hate to have that eastern fetch that will be present over the Bahama's and open ocean.
Quoting hydrus:
It is my opinion that a high number of people do a great job forecasting storms on this blog. Especially when atmospheric conditions are not tremendously complex.
Yep. LOTS of good forecasting and analysis goes on here. Of course, half the battle is muddling through all the junk that gets posted that is far from decent forecasting. (IMO, the "morning crew" has some excellent analysis... it goes downhill around 11am CST)
Quoting steelmagnolia44:
SammyWB,

When they finished in your garden, the racoons paid a visit to mine and tore up everything. They also destroyed a bluebird nest and got to the eggs even though I have a predator guard on the bluebird house.

I learned a lesson about the bluebird house. The birds did not use their first nest. I've read that bluebirds do this often....build decoy nests. They returned recently and built a second nest on top of the first one which raised the level of the nest, putting it within reach of a predator like a racoon in spite of the guard. I should have removed the first nest. I cleaned out the box so maybe they will try again.

About racoons and rabies........I have read that racoons are carriers of rabies. My neighbors humanely trap and release them elsewhere.

Hope you can restore your garden.

We need rain so badly here along the northern Gulf Coast. May 94L bring us some. I appreciate all the good info so many of you take the time to post

Wishing everyone and everyone's gardens a good week.

Steel



Thank you,

Here is a Map of the Drought conditons across the gulf coast:



1776. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


You mean like Lindsey Lohan?
yes..And there are even better examples than her.
1777. Grothar
Quoting Hurrykane:


Hey Grothar...thanks for your contributions here.


You are welcome. I shall try harder.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Praying for the western tracks. Hate to have that eastern fetch that will be present over the Bahama's and open ocean.


I like the yellow track.

Rain for South Florida and then North East Florida and Georgia
1779. IKE
5 day QPF....


Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....




No!!!! Shift that west.. Arghhhhh!!!!!!!

-20.90 inches this Year!
I'm putting up my shower curtains now! I'm scured
1782. IKE

Quoting sammywammybamy:


No!!!! Shift that west.. Arghhhhh!!!!!!!

-20.90 inches this Year!
Tampa gets a tenth of an inch.....

Key West.....
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BECOMING CONSISTENT WITH A DEEPENING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THIS ALIGNMENT ALOFT...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL EVOLVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE (PWAT FROM 1.5
INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES)ALONG WITH NO INHIBITION. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IT APPEARS ONLY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS CUBA LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE...PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR
PRECIPITATION SEEM TO BE COMING INTO PLACE BEGINNING THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE
NUDGED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT BEGINNING FRIDAY AND FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ABOVE
AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES...WILL INTRODUCE TEMPERATURE RANGES OF 85 TO 90
AND 75 TO 80 DEGREES.

SST ANOMALIES 6/6/2011



SST ANOMALIES 6/5/2008
1784. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:
Well, if you don't mind. I would like to give you a video I did many years on the weather. I hope you like it. I wish it had subtitle. If you like it, I can do a regular one on local weather here. Mind you I was just a kid.





LOL!! Grothar, bist Du das gewesen, dieser Bart?? Goldig. And has it been a hurricane, which struck Germany in the forecast (Edit: I mean the cloud show)?
Greetings from thunderstormy Germany, with bigggg amounts of rain in some regions, but not in our town Mainz. :(
Quoting Grothar:


That happens in bars too, around 2:00 AM.


LMAO!!!


I hope those clouds produce some rain.
Quoting stormpetrol:


LMAO!!!
Looks like a big rain day for us
KmanIslander just documented that 94L is indeed a mess. Still it has two more days to sit there and get something together before meeting the wrecking ball.
1789. Hugo7
I caught a video of a wall cloud dropping from the storm over stuttgart last night. very crappy quality or I would have posted it..
1790. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....


It is my belief that the area of heavy rain there will shift westward..Just for kicks, here is the 30 day water temp forecast...
Quoting kmanislander:
Looks like a big rain day for us


Kman,

Alot of models take the broad center over you.



Some banding starting to develop north of the low. Broad, but is organizing well this morning. The two pieces are coming together.

1793. IKE

Quoting Chicklit:
KmanIslander just documented that 94L is indeed a mess. Still it has two more days to sit there and get something together before meeting the wrecking ball.
""I'm waiting!"""


Quoting Hugo7:
I caught a video of a wall cloud dropping from the storm over stuttgart last night. very crappy quality or I would have posted it..

I was on the phone listening to the hail. Couldn't find a decent satellite picture of it though. Too bad your photo didn't come out! Ike too funny. rofl
So no recon? Dang it
1796. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:


I hope those clouds produce some rain.
I doubt it..Thats just cirrus, and it should reduce daytime heating instability for today..jmo
When you will have finished with the heavy rains in Jamaica, please send Very very heavy in the northern leewards islands! We really need it....
Quoting Hurrykane:
SST ANOMALIES 6/6/2011



SST ANOMALIES 6/5/2008


The Equatorial Pacific continues to warm. Maybe El Nino appears and surprises us by the peak of the season, if the warming continues.
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....






Had to spoil my dreams huh??
Quoting Chicklit:
KmanIslander just documented that 94L is indeed a mess. Still it has two more days to sit there and get something together before meeting the wrecking ball.


It's almost as if it had a split personality LOL

Last night the low was weakening quickly and the blow up underneath Jamaica was trying to spin up in its place. That didn't happen, at least not yet, and so we are left with two distinct areas of deep convection.

1801. cg2916
I counted 40 points on the TCFA checklist. Somebody check me.
1802. IKE

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:




Had to spoil my dreams huh??
:(

Drought-caster.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
So no recon? Dang it



j/k Dean
1804. Grothar
Quoting barbamz:


LOL!! Grothar, bist Du das gewesen, dieser Bart?? Goldig. And has it been a hurricane, which struck Germany in the forecast (Edit: I mean the cloud show)?
Greetings from thunderstormy Germany, with bigggg amounts of rain in some regions, but not in our town Mainz. :(



Es war sehr lustig. Es erinnerte mich an jemanden hier. LOL Finally get rain in Germany? About time. I hope with this system in the we get some. Very, very dry.
Good. :) cant wait to see what they have to say.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Kman,

Alot of models take the broad center over you.





I see that but look at this forecast map. In any event we should get heavy rain today and that is good.

1807. hydrus
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The Equatorial Pacific continues to warm. Maybe El Nino appears and surprises us by the peak of the season, if the warming continues.
If it does, it usually takes a couple of months for the atmosphere to switch into the El-Nino pattern..If it will save some area from a landfall, bring it..
1809. Hugo7
Quoting Chicklit:

I was on the phone listening to the hail. Couldn't find a decent satellite picture of it though. Too bad your photo didn't come out! Ike too funny. rofl
My wife thought I was crazy standing in the rain getting hailed on trying to catch the video. All I have is the initial drop that you can see, really no rotation on it, but It could have been an ef-0
1810. Mucinex
The racoons do carry rabies, but so do the squirrels and possums. And the armadillos carry leprosy.

What you can do, if you think the racoons are climbing up to the nest from the ground is to pour some ammonia into an empty tuna can (or any kind of small can) and put it at the base of the tree or box post. They absolutely hate it. Makes them think a large predator is in the area.

If your more adventurous and into an "organic,non-toxic" solution, a bit of human peepee really does the trick, as well.

And, to stay on topic, if 94L doesn't make up it's mind soon I'm gonna pull my hair out.
1811. Grothar
Quoting reedzone:
Some banding starting to develop north of the low. Broad, but is organizing well this morning. The two pieces are coming together.



You see that with a lot of early systems. Try to get all the energy in one center. It is as if they have a split-tail and do want they want to do. If they can consolidate, it would be a lot of energy. I am still maintain this will go North or North-west. Unless the atmosphere changes in the Gulf, I don't think it will move all that Northwest.
1812. cg2916
Gro, you are awesome. Don't let anybody tell you otherwise.
Quoting Grothar:
Well, if you don't mind. I would like to give you a video I did many years on the weather. I hope you like it. I wish it had subtitle. If you like it, I can do a regular one on local weather here. Mind you I was just a kid.





They had camcorders back then? WOW! ;)
Morning Groth!
Quoting kmanislander:


I see that but look at this forecast map. In any event we should get heavy rain today and that is good.


I think the low may go the same direction that the surface map is showing East back to SW Jamaica grab that convection then move WNW
1815. Grothar
Quoting stormpetrol:


LMAO!!!


Been there, huh?
1816. IKE

Quoting Mucinex:
The racoons do carry rabies, but so do the squirrels and possums. And the armadillos carry leprosy.

What you can do, if you think the racoons are climbing up to the nest from the ground is to pour some ammonia into an empty tuna can (or any kind of small can) and put it at the base of the tree or box post. They absolutely hate it. Makes them think a large predator is in the area.

If your more adventurous and into an "organic,non-toxic" solution, a bit of human peepee really does the trick, as well.

And, to stay on topic, if 94L doesn't make up it's mind soon I'm gonna pull my hair out.
No wonder my front yard is raccoon-less.
I've lived in S.E. Florida since the late 70's and I do not remember it being this dry this late into June...... And to top it off I don't have a very good feeling about this hurricane season for us either....

So could someone please do a rain dance for us....
Back later
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 6th, with Video


Thanks for the update Levi
1820. cg2916
This reminds me of Fay, 2008. Officially the most annoying storm ever.
Thanks Levi!
1822. Levi32
Low-level vorticity with 94L is still elongated and broad, but slightly stronger than yesterday.

As badly as we need rain in Texas, I want this thing to steer to the east since I leave for a cruise on Monday going to Cozumel!
Looks like a totally different system in the NW carribean now
Quoting cg2916:
This reminds me of Fay, 2008. Officially the most annoying storm ever.


We could only hope for a fay here in Florida..
Quoting cg2916:
This reminds me of Fay, 2008. Officially the most annoying storm ever.


I think Fay dumped rain everywhere in Florida except for the Tampa Bay area. We got nuttin out of that thing. Some folks got 30", we got squadoosh.

Quoting kmanislander:


I see that but look at this forecast map. In any event we should get heavy rain today and that is good.

Doesn't this show that most likely the low will move under the heaviest convection which would benefit 94L ?
Levi, seems that the therefor another vortmax east of 94L
1829. Levi32
Quoting cg2916:
This reminds me of Fay, 2008. Officially the most annoying storm ever.


No comparison to Fay lol. Every early-season system that I can ever remember is like this, but Fay was its own thing entirely, strengthening over land and making landfall multiple times.
Good Morning from Ja.

Some news regarding the weather:

Flood woes, Man feared drowned
Link

Flash flood warning remains in effect
Link

National Emergency centre activated
Link
Quoting Levi32:
Low-level vorticity with 94L is still elongated and broad, but slightly stronger than yesterday.



Levi ,

The Center is located in between those two blobs of convection correct?

If there is a blow up/ merge of the two blobs over the center of circulation...

Would that induce the Broad llc becoming better organized
1832. Mucinex
Quoting IKE:

No wonder my front yard is raccoon-less.


Hehehe!;)
1833. Levi32
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Levi ,

The Center is located in between those two blobs of convection correct?

If there is a blow up/ merge of the two blobs over the center of circulation...

Would that induce the Broad llc becoming better organized


If convection can develop directly over the center, then yes it would be better organized.
1834. EricSFL
Did the NHC adjust the Floater's location toward the possible relocated center?

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Levi, seems that the therefor another vortmax east of 94L

it looks like the vortmax is pushing Eastward
1836. Levi32
Quoting EricSFL:
Did the NHC adjust the Floater's location toward the possible relocated center?



The floater has not moved. They need to move it again since the center is farther northwest today.
Alex right before becoming a TD:



It will be interesting to see if 94L comes together like Alex did last year. No doubt Alex of last year was more organized in that satellite pic than 94L is right now, though.
Next!
1839. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:



Es war sehr lustig. Es erinnerte mich an jemanden hier. LOL Finally get rain in Germany? About time. I hope with this system in the we get some. Very, very dry.


Amounts of rain forecasted for Germany til Thursday (gfs - I hope the link will work). This would be the end of rain deficiency.
http://www.wzforum.de/pics/Rtavn8418.png
1840. cg2916
What happened to the organization last night?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like a totally different system in the NW carribean now
hopefully it generally moves in a wnw direction toward texas maybe everyone could benifit. pretty sure florida going to get alot of rain. right now it looks as organized as ive seen it
Quoting BobinTampa:


I think Fay dumped rain everywhere in Florida except for the Tampa Bay area. We got nuttin out of that thing. Some folks got 30", we got squadoosh.



Lol! you are Correct :

1843. IKE
Grand Cayman....


84.2 °F

Mostly Cloudy

Pressure:


29.83 in

(Steady)


Quoting islander101010:
hopefully it generally moves in a wnw direction toward texas


Some kind of mid level rotation going on there off the Yucatan
1845. MahFL
LLC SW of Jamaica.



Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Alex right before becoming a TD:



It will be interesting to see if 94L comes together like Alex did last year. No doubt Alex of last year was more organized in that satellite pic than 94L is right now, though.

Oh man, i see MASSIVE amounts of resemblance to 94L.
Newest Models:




Link
Quoting MahFL:
LLC SW of Jamaica.




I would agree with you if I knew where SW of Jamaica it is because I think there is one in that area as well so where it it lat & long please
Quoting MahFL:
LLC SW of Jamaica.





I Think your right. Good Call
Quoting IKE:
Grand Cayman....



84.2 °F


Mostly Cloudy

Pressure:


29.83 in

(Steady)



Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 36391


Ok IKE, give it up....what is your secret for getting rain forecasts?





ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HOT AND STICKY AIR MASS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...IT
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALIZED RELIEF TO THE NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS GRASP
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.

Starting to see a tighter low around 80W and 17N, west-southwest of Jamaica.. Anybody seeing what I'm seeing?

1853. Levi32
Quoting IKE:
Grand Cayman....


84.2F

Mostly Cloudy

Pressure:


29.83in

(Steady)




Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 36391




That's a pressure gradient of 3mb between Grand Cayman and buoy 42057 which is near 94L's center. That may imply a tighter center than yesterday.
1854. IKE

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Ok IKE, give it up....what is your secret for getting rain forecasts?





ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HOT AND STICKY AIR MASS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...IT
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALIZED RELIEF TO THE NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS GRASP
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.

lol....

30% chance today and then tomorrow....

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after
11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as
105. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph. New rainfall
amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts
possible in thunderstorms.

Forgot to add link


Link
1856. IKE

Quoting Levi32:


That's a pressure gradient of 3mb between Grand Cayman and buoy 42057 which is near 94L's center. That may imply a tighter center than yesterday.
That's a PWS. I should have stated that.
Quoting reedzone:
Starting to see a tighter low around 80W and 17N, west-southwest of Jamaica.. Anybody seeing what I'm seeing?


did you loop it or just look at the image
Its a shame that the NHC rescheduled today's recon mission for tomorrow since it would be helpful to actually see whats going on with this system finally and give the computer models some more assistance with the ultimate evolution of this system.
1859. Levi32
Quoting reedzone:
Starting to see a tighter low around 80W and 17N, west-southwest of Jamaica.. Anybody seeing what I'm seeing?



No. Surface flow is straight southerly there. Loop
All time record high for June yesterday in Houston at 105*
1861. Levi32
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Its a shame that the NHC rescheduled today's recon mission for tomorrow since it would be helpful to actually see whats going on with this system finally and give the computer models some more assistance with the ultimate evolution of this system.


As long as we can see the surface circulation exposed on visible, there's no reason to send the recon. We're only going to need that if this system gets to the point where it hides itself beneath convection and it becomes hard to determine its true organization. An exposed low center tells us all we need to know.
Information About Disturbance (Invest 94L)


Storm information valid as of: Monday, June 6, 2011 12:00 Z
Coordinates: 17.7N 81.6W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)

Location: 112 miles (180 km) to the S (187°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR)

Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?

Pressure (MSLP): 1006 mb (29.71 inHg | 1006 hPa)

Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s)

I am reading 29.76 right now here in Grand Cayman
Quoting reedzone:
Starting to see a tighter low around 80W and 17N, west-southwest of Jamaica.. Anybody seeing what I'm seeing?



Not really seeing any at the surface in that location. Still seeing a pretty defined circulation at around 18 N and 82W at this time.
Quoting reedzone:
Starting to see a tighter low around 80W and 17N, west-southwest of Jamaica.. Anybody seeing what I'm seeing?





Is that what your seeing? or is it in that complex of thunderstorms South east of the red circle?
Quoting Levi32:


As long as we can see the surface circulation exposed on visible, there's no reason to send the recon. We're only going to need that if this system gets to the point where it hides itself beneath convection and it becomes hard to determine its true organization. An exposed low center tells us all we need to know.



Looking at the progress of the western convection to the east, 94L's center may indeed be covered soon.
1869. Levi32
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Looking at the progress of the western convection to the east, 94L's center may indeed be covered soon.


If that happens things would become more interesting.
I see the surface low now clearly on visibleLink around 18/81.4, Interesting scenario taking place with all the convection approaching the low from WSW/SW , and the convection drifting west from east!
1872. beell
LOL. There's always this:

Good Morning. That ongoing sheer to the North of the disturbance and relative position of the sub-tropical jet, which now appears to have dipped down a bit south of Cuba, is really hindering development......Favorable sheer in the upper levels is the missing ingredient and the anti-clyclone has not been able to fight it off sufficiently although it came pretty close yesterday........I think it is losing the battle at present.
1875. Levi32
Quoting beell:
LOL. There's always this:



What. Typical GFS elongation?
LLC almost due west of Jamaica
Quoting Levi32:


If that happens things would become more interesting.


I personally don't believe conditions will be any better than they are today for 94L.
1879. beell
Quoting Levi32:


What. Typical GFS elongation?


Ease up, Levi. It was spurious humor.
:-]
Quoting stormpetrol:
I see the surface low now clearly on visibleLink around 18/81.4, Interesting scenario taking place with all the convection approaching the low from WSW/SW , and the convection drifting west from east!

the only thing I see there is a weak elongated circulation I belief a new one is developing E aaround or under the convection s of jamaica there seems to be a few swirls developing in the area
Gotta give you credit on your Avatar Beell, pretty darn hilarious. Although I thought the Grandma one was better.
1883. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:
94L does seem to have the best chances of the invests thus far to actually develop, I believe.
WISHCASTER!
1884. Levi32
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I personally don't believe conditions will be any better than they are today for 94L.


Agreed.
1885. Levi32
Quoting beell:


Ease up, Levi. It was spurious humor.
:-]


Lol.
Quoting beell:


Ease up, Levi. It was spurious humor.
:-]


Spurious humor is always good...:) relaxes tension....cause ole 94L is slowwww goooo...Byw, a hello to all .
hey guys after looking at the wider picture it seems that the convection to the west is now pushing eastbound toward the convection south of Jam
Even if 94L fails to make it beyond invest stage, take heart, tropic watchers: just 360 days, 9 hours, and 42 minutes until the 2012 hurricane season gets underway!

Woo-hoo!
1889. IKE

Quoting Neapolitan:
Even if 94L fails to make it beyond invest stage, take heart, tropic watchers: just 360 days, 9 hours, and 42 minutes until the 2010 hurricane season gets underway!

Woo-hoo!
2010? wth?
No new blogs?
1891. Levi32
Current position based on high-resolution visible:



Loop
Quoting Neapolitan:
Even if 94L fails to make it beyond invest stage, take heart, tropic watchers: just 360 days, 9 hours, and 42 minutes until the 2010 hurricane season gets underway!

Woo-hoo!

its 2011 not 2010 you need to buy a ne calander
1893. FLdewey
As long as said spurious humor doesn't... um... go around the ridge.

It sure looks like it has a strong toe hold.

Not sure it'll stay on it's feet though.
Basically getting closer to the Yucatan over the past few days
1895. beell
Thanks, CV. I worked pretty hard on both of them.
1896. IKE

Quoting Levi32:
Current position based on high-resolution visible:



Loop
That's where I see the spin too.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

its 2011 not 2010 you need to buy a ne calander

What's a "ne calander"? ;-)

Comment date fixed...
Quoting Levi32:
Current position based on high-resolution visible:



Loop


Surface observations support a position a little to the west than your analyzed position.
1899. Levi32
Cumulus cloud streets becoming deeper and more convective around the Cayman Islands. Instability is increasing.
1900. Levi32
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Surface observations support a position a little to the north and west than your analyzed position.


Scattered surface obs do not give direct fixes. Visible satellite of an exposed center does. Which obs in particular do you think disagree with that position?
1901. Levi32
No real structure to the system yet:

Quoting Levi32:
Current position based on high-resolution visible:



Loop
Exactly. I see the same thing, Levi... slight spin nearly due W of Jamaica, exposed on the eastern side, and a generally unconvincing level of organization.
94 L is running out of time before the strong shear sets back in..94L has no chance and i think that is what the NHC is thinking.. 94 L HAS USED UP HIS 9 LIVES...We wont be talking about 94L tomorrow the strong shear will rip it apart...So long live 94L
Dyanmic Models:

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

its 2011 not 2010 you need to buy a ne calander


That would actually make it the 2012 Hurricane Season lol.
Quoting Levi32:


Scattered surface obs do not give direct fixes. Visible satellite of an exposed center does. Which obs in particular do you think disagree with that position?




If the center was located at your analyzed position, then the winds being reported directly south of Grand Cayman out to sea would be reporting a pretty much due west to just slight south of due west wind, not a solid southwesterly wind.

1909. aquak9
ok, I'm willing to accept the demise of 94L.

But will there be any remnants to bring rain to the CONUS?
1910. aquak9
yeah Reed, that was really outta character for you
Quoting pressureman:
Reed what is wrong with you...cant you see the shear man thats going to rock and roll 94L..Reed i thought you learned somethig but eveidently you have learned nothing...94L is history ...


Yeah, just like when you predicted bonnie to be a hurricane after one sprout of convection last year. Enough of this now. 94L has a decent shot at TD status in the next few days.
1912. 7544
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Dyanmic Models:



hmm looks like the next few runs models are shifting more to the east looks a t the high in the gom
1913. Levi32
Quoting cchsweatherman:






That buoy in the SE corner of the image seems to support the visible satellite center fix, and the northeast wind way off to the northwest could support any position in that general area. That doesn't seem too conclusive.
aquak9 that is a good possibility...much needed rain could move into the the gulf coast and fla...
1915. Levi32
Quoting aquak9:
ok, I'm willing to accept the demise of 94L.

But will there be any remnants to bring rain to the CONUS?


I believe there will be at least some rain in store for Florida, Aqua.
the heaver convection on the west side is pushing east with a slight southerly movement to it I thing it wants to catch up with the other bit of heaver convection south of Jamaica when this happen one of two thing may very well happen #1 the current LLC get draged to the east toward the ball of convection or #2 a new much stronger LLC develops
Quoting reedzone:


Once again Stormtop, SHUT IT!


It may or may not be Stormtop but I happen to agree with him/her.........Just expressing an opinion...No need to jump on them like that.........
Quoting aquak9:
ok, I'm willing to accept the demise of 94L.

But will there be any remnants to bring rain to the CONUS?


It's looking better and better for the Peninsula everyday, crossing fingers.
Quoting Levi32:


That buoy in the SE corner of the image seems to support the visible satellite center fix, and the northeast wind way off to the northwest could support any position in that general area. That doesn't seem too conclusive.


If the center was located at your analyzed position, then the winds being reported directly south of Grand Cayman out to sea would be reporting a pretty much due west to just slight south of due west wind, not a solid southwesterly wind.
The day of RIPping 94L
1671. pottery 7:51 AM EDT on June 06, 2011
There is a pair of Toucans making loud "cheeping" noises in the top of a tree outside.
I'm going to join them.


...I am picturing Pottery still up in the tree cheeping,
...when the cement delivery trucks arrive.
1924. aquak9
thanks, wannabe. I felt it was an immature response.

Sorry Reed but I gotta call it as I see it.
Lack of Poll questions today...LOL

Here is a simple one.

Poll- How much time does 94L have to organize?

A. A little more time (24 hours)

B. A little more time (36 Hours)

C. Quite a bit of time (48 Hours)

D. A lot of time (50-75 hours)

E. Plenty of time (+75 hours)

F. Unspeakablely long (+120 hours)

I would go with C, but D isn't out of the question.
Quoting aquak9:
thanks, wannabe. I felt it was an immature response.

Sorry Reed but I gotta call it as I see it.
Quoting aquak9:
thanks, wannabe. I felt it was an immature response.

Sorry Reed but I gotta call it as I see it.


Hopefully, Dr. M will post soon as I want to see what "He" is thinking........ :)
I know how to read shear maps, it's what I base my opinions on. Right now shear is still marginally favorable and anything can happen at that stage, we've seen Alberto (2006) overcome shear for 24 hours, almost became a Hurricane. Not saying 94L is hurricane bound, but it has a medium chance (decent shot) at becoming a Tropical Depression over the next 2-3 days before shear really cranks up.
Quoting reedzone:
The day of RIPping 94L


Figures it's happens to be the best day yet/ever for it to become a TD, lol.
1929. Jax82
Hey guys, i came across this chart the other day, anyone seen something like this?

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


It's looking better and better for the Peninsula everyday, crossing fingers.


Yes...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 061403 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011



WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE THIS FAR OUT INTO EXTENDED
FORECAST...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SLOWLY
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE PROBABILITIES BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

Quoting Inactivity:
Lack of Poll questions today...LOL

Here is a simple one.

Poll- How much time does 94L have to organize?

A. A little more time (24 hours)

B. A little more time (36 Hours)

C. Quite a bit of time (48 Hours)

D. A lot of time (50-75 hours)

E. Plenty of time (+75 hours)

F. Unspeakablely long (+120 hours)

I would go with C, but D isn't out of the question.
C.
Quoting reedzone:


Yeah, just like when you predicted bonnie to be a hurricane after one sprout of convection last year. Enough of this now. 94L has a decent shot at TD status in the next few days.

hey reed ignore him he's trying to get to you there is a button that you can use to take care of that problem it called the Ignore User button all you need to do is push it
Quoting reedzone:


Yeah, just like when you predicted bonnie to be a hurricane after one sprout of convection last year. Enough of this now. 94L has a decent shot at TD status in the next few days.
moving into a developmental area for systems in june too going to take alot of windshear to kill this system.
1935. xcool
RIP 94L LOL LMAO JOKES
1936. Levi32
Quoting cchsweatherman:


If the center was located at your analyzed position, then the winds being reported directly south of Grand Cayman out to sea would be reporting a pretty much due west to just slight south of due west wind, not a solid southwesterly wind.


These are the coordinates of that buoy, CCHS. 17N, 81.5W. SW wind makes sense.

1937. Levi32
I'm off to work. Later all.
Levi,

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.003N 81.501WConditions as of:
Mon, 6 Jun 2011 13:50:00 UTC

Winds: SW (220) at 3.9 kt gusting to 3.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (44)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.76 in
Air Temperature: 81.9 F
Dew Point: 77.5 F
Water Temperature: 82.9
Quoting Levi32:
I'm off to work. Later all.


Adios Levi..
1940. 19N81W
wow I though we would wake up to something much different...
1941. goavs4
New Blog!
New blog alert!
1943. xcool
new blogggggggg
we are still reporting NE winds here
Quoting xcool:
RIP 94L LOL LMAO JOKES



LOl...xcool, ya trying to add to the tension ? It was 103 on my back deck yesterday...and it's in the shady section :o
Quoting Levi32:


I believe there will be at least some rain in store for Florida, Aqua.


That would extremely helpful especially in Central and Northern Florida. Drought could get to close to extreme levels in a few weeks if not.
So 50%, and NHC metioning a possible TD by tonight, good, Florida needs it.