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Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

IMO

Harvey is sitting in the pocket ready for rapid intensification.

16N 83.3W
3503. ncstorm
hate it do this but our NWS..yes the National Weather Service is depicting doom in the GOM..P451, you might want to shoot them that map.

BY THURS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MOVING UP FROM THE WESTERN CARIB INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE A FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURS
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING BACK WESTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
THURS INTO FRI AND GREATER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
Quoting bythegraceofgod:


Thanks for the link. I used to have it but my computer crashed and I lost everything.

Also, I thought he didn't get banned. He just got fed up and left.


I think he did get banned something about toes or something like that If I recall.
3505. Grothar
3506. NASA101
Quoting utilaeastwind:
IMO

Harvey is sitting in the pocket ready for rapid intensification.

16N 83.3W


First of all, it's not named yet and will probably remain TD!
3507. Gorty
TD 8 looks like it could become a TS today. Henry said HH found TS force winds. And it looks more like a TS now.
TROPICAL FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARRIBEAN & GOM 9:30AM 8-19-11:

TD 8 center of circulation about to make landfall near the Nicaraguan/Honduran border. This system should begin to diminish once further inland into the country of Honduras. Heavy rains could fall in this region should it's movement to the W/WSW significantly slow resulting in flooding and mudslides in this mountaninous region of Central America. This will be the final statement on this system.

97L continuing to move W/WNW and beginning to develop more thunderstorms around it's apparent low-level circulation. This sytem may increase to a TD or minimal TS before it begins to encounter unfavorable ULL winds in the Puerto Rico vicinity. Furthermore based upon it's projected path it will encounter the larger islands of the Carribean which will significantly disrupt it's organization and likely dissipate over the mountains of Hispanola. Will be no threat to the US coastline.

98L has a much better chance to become a much more powerful system perhaps a hurricane in 3-5 days from now as it moves WNW and then eventually NW into the open Atlantic as it recurves eventually to the NE. This sytem poses no threat to land.

Elsewhere no other threats for the next 7-10 days.
3509. Grothar
What dry air? Looks like the convection is far removed from the last reported center.

3510. srada
Quoting FLdewey:


Know this... if I see ants going for ma Cheetos we're gonna have issues.


I think the ants are evacuating so you should be straight
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 14:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 8 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 13:57:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°04'N 83°27'W (16.0667N 83.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 262 miles (421 km) to the SSW (211°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,459m (4,787ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 103° at 40kts (From the ESE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the N (354°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the north quadrant at 13:44:20Z

TS Harvey at 11am est 45-50mph.
3512. nigel20

98L is really looking impressive.
3513. angiest
Quoting NASA101:


First of all, it's not named yet and will probably remain TD!


The VDM indicates it *may* be able to get a name.
Quoting ncstorm:
hate it do this but our NWS..yes the National Weather Service is depicting doom in the GOM..P451, you might want to shoot them that map.

BY THURS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MOVING UP FROM THE WESTERN CARIB INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE A FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURS
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING BACK WESTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
THURS INTO FRI AND GREATER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS.


Front coming down as a Storm moves north.....seen that before in Port Charlotte, Fl........NO THAT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN ....besides i live in the protected city of Tampa now.
ECMWF at 240 hours shows a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf of Mexico

Link
3516. NASA101
Quoting cloudburst2011:



i agree totally


I doubt that it'll be a TD by 55W as it is very close to 50W right now there is ZERO convection where most of the vorticity is... my guess West of 60W
3517. scott39
Quoting ncstorm:
hate it do this but our NWS..yes the National Weather Service is depicting doom in the GOM..P451, you might want to shoot them that map.

BY THURS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MOVING UP FROM THE WESTERN CARIB INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE A FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURS
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING BACK WESTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
THURS INTO FRI AND GREATER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
Does this solidify the track of 97L more?
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
TROPICAL FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARRIBEAN & GOM 9:30AM 8-19-11:

TD 8 center of circulation about to make landfall near the Nicaraguan/Honduran border. This system should begin to diminish once further inland into the country of Honduras. Heavy rains could fall in this region should it's movement to the W/WSW significantly slow resulting in flooding and mudslides in this mountaninous region of Central America. This will be the final statement on this system.

97L continuing to move W/WNW and beginning to develop more thunderstorms around it's apparent low-level circulation. This sytem may increase to a TD or minimal TS before it begins to encounter unfavorable ULL winds in the Puerto Rico vicinity. Furthermore based upon it's projected path it will encounter the larger islands of the Carribean which will significantly disrupt it's organization and likely dissipate over the mountains of Hispanola. Will be no threat to the US coastline.

98L has a much better chance to become a much more powerful system perhaps a hurricane in 3-5 days from now as it moves WNW and then eventually NW into the open Atlantic as it recurves eventually to the NE. This sytem poses no threat to land.

Elsewhere no other threats for the next 7-10 days.



Looking at the current satellite data makes me very doubtful of this forecast. Any agreement?
3519. NASA101
Quoting wolftribe2009:
ECMWF at 240 hours shows a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf of Mexico

Link


That the 12Z run from yesterday - 24 hours old!
3520. angiest
Quoting stormpetrol:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 14:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 8 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 13:57:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°04'N 83°27'W (16.0667N 83.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 262 miles (421 km) to the SSW (211°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,459m (4,787ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 103° at 40kts (From the ESE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the N (354°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the north quadrant at 13:44:20Z

TS Harvey at 11am est 45-50mph.


I suspect, if they use this to name it, they will go with the 35kt.
Quoting srada:


I think the ants are evacuating so you should be straight


Ants in Contra-Flow is a bad sign.

bllllrump..bump..bump
Quoting aprinz1979:


I think he did get banned something about toes or something like that If I recall.


Toes? Whatever



This is not a scenario I'm too thrilled with...
97L looks innocent enough at the moment...


Looks like RoatanGardener is going to catch quite a bit of TD 8.

off for mid-morning nap.
L8R.<
3525. angiest
Quoting utilaeastwind:



Looking at the current satellite data makes me very doubtful of this forecast. Any agreement?

I suspect I know who this is, or who this person is pretending to be. If you know of the legends around here, look at the handle and figure out who it seems to be...
Quoting Abacosurf:


As I said before tigger....leave it to the professionals...

You can actually use a gallon Roundup container to store water if cleansed and neutralized properly.

But I understand your point.

Geez...can we beat this to death a bit more....

I have a 500 gallon cistern at my house in Fl. as well as a 12,000 gallon cistern in Abaco.

I am covered.

Don't understand why more people in the states don't have cisterns or at least a 55 gal container attached to a gutter......




Because water comes out of the tap without fail (or so most people think). Here we keep a fair supply of water on hand in the event that the planets align incorrectly and the tap ceases to function...
Interesting..
Quoting NASA101:


I doubt that it'll be a TD by 55W as it is very close to 50W right now there is ZERO convection where most of the vorticity is... my guess West of 60W



zero convection are you looking at what im looking at...covection is firing in all quadrants ..lots of red...i disagree..
3529. HCW
Quoting angiest:

I suspect I know who this is, or who this person is pretending to be. If you know of the legends around here, look at the handle and figure out who it seems to be...



Are you giving away prizes for the person that guesses correctly ?
Quoting angiest:

I suspect I know who this is, or who this person is pretending to be. If you know of the legends around here, look at the handle and figure out who it seems to be...


Name: Steve Dankewich
Location: Utila, Bay Islands, Honduras


I no pretend.
Good morning, all! First looks like TD8 is about to become Harvey, based on what recon found--- 40mph winds and 1005mb pressure.

Second, 97L looks better today, with more thunderstorms around it. Models are not looking all that good for the Carib Islands and South Florida, and even perhaps the northern Gulf Coast, eventually. But that is still several days off and plenty of time to watch.

Third 98L is also looking very nice on satellite, dont think it will pose any threat to land.
3532. MahFL
Quoting utilaeastwind:



Looking at the current satellite data makes me very doubtful of this forecast. Any agreement?


Ignore him, he's a troll.
3533. Relix
97L won't amount to much I am beginning to think. Very similar case to Emily.
Quoting utilaeastwind:



Looking at the current satellite data makes me very doubtful of this forecast. Any agreement?


THIS IS A JOKE..
Quoting MahFL:


Ignore him, he's a troll.


What is a troll?
3537. nigel20
All this talk about filling milk jugs, bath tubs with water, buying powdered milk, and canned goods, and so on reminds me of when I was a kid and Donna stormed in. My dad and mom taped the window and filled the tub (plus 1 cup chlorine), bought those little cans of sterno heat (I still remember the awful smell) and they got out the real glass hurricane lamps (wish I still had one of those, if only because they were so cool and exciting).

And of course, before everyone tells me "Hey dude, taping the window does not work", well I know. In fact, my brothers and I spent days scraping the sticky tape of the picture window days later, along with cleaning up the yard and debris.

We all were made to sleep in the main part of the house, away from doors and windows ... good and exciting times for a 12 year old kid, but I'm sure my Dad and Mom were terrified for us. After it was over, we drove a few miles to the beach, or what was left of it.

Sorry for the stroll down memory lane, but if you lived in FLA at that time and date, you will know what I mean.

Oh, now I use heavy plywood and evacuate if warranted. My Dad was a great person, but maybe back then people didn't have the same respect for the weather as we do now. Or maybe he was like myself; liked the thrill of it all.
3539. NASA101
Quoting Relix:
97L won't amount to much I am beginning to think. Very similar case to Emily.


Agree..., or even similar fate to 93L! 93L just like 97L had a naked swirl and never get going..

My guess is that models are developing this too fast west of 55W
3540. angiest
Quoting HCW:



Are you giving away prizes for the person that guesses correctly ?


Nope, just avoiding mentioning the name in public.
Quoting Relix:
97L won't amount to much I am beginning to think. Very similar case to Emily.
Why do you think that?
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
TROPICAL FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARRIBEAN & GOM 9:30AM 8-19-11:

TD 8 center of circulation about to make landfall near the Nicaraguan/Honduran border. This system should begin to diminish once further inland into the country of Honduras. Heavy rains could fall in this region should it's movement to the W/WSW significantly slow resulting in flooding and mudslides in this mountaninous region of Central America. This will be the final statement on this system.

97L continuing to move W/WNW and beginning to develop more thunderstorms around it's apparent low-level circulation. This sytem may increase to a TD or minimal TS before it begins to encounter unfavorable ULL winds in the Puerto Rico vicinity. Furthermore based upon it's projected path it will encounter the larger islands of the Carribean which will significantly disrupt it's organization and likely dissipate over the mountains of Hispanola. Will be no threat to the US coastline.

98L has a much better chance to become a much more powerful system perhaps a hurricane in 3-5 days from now as it moves WNW and then eventually NW into the open Atlantic as it recurves eventually to the NE. This sytem poses no threat to land.

Elsewhere no other threats for the next 7-10 days.
You're a wishful thinker buddy...
3542. CJ5
Quoting tiggeriffic:


and i bet you store raw meat on the top shelf of your fridge, use a sponge to wash dishes, and towel dry your dishes as well...you can do as you please, however, safety is always first and in all good conscience how can you tell people it is ok to wash a milk jug and drink the water knowing they may not do it properly and could get sick? The handle, the rim and the cap harbor protien bacteria after reaching certain temperatures...I have taken all the food prep courses and safety courses due to my position at work...i deal with kids...we have rules...i follow those rules...my kids don't get sick...restraunts and such that dont follow rules have high tendancy for food poisoning...i rarely eat out as i have gotten sick from one of those establishments...and they had the A rating on the door...if someone does NOT have experience in the proper way to do something...dont chance it...period...


I would imagine most people can wash a milk jug and reuse properly. It is not rocket science, but then again, in todays society I may be wrong.
POSS T.C.F.A.
INV/XX/97L
MARK
13.49N/48.18W
Quoting SavannahStorm:



This is not a scenario I'm too thrilled with...


Lets ask the GFS model what it means by a 979 MB storm near Savannah. What is it saying the conditions will be at that time? Tornadoes and Flooding would probably be a given. I live in South West Georgia and so I am not sitting well with it either.
T.C.F.W.
08L/TD/XX
mark
16.63N/83.63W
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/98L
3548. CJ5
Quoting Relix:
97L won't amount to much I am beginning to think. Very similar case to Emily.


Interesting, please elaborate.
3549. NASA101
Quoting cloudburst2011:



zero convection are you looking at what im looking at...covection is firing in all quadrants ..lots of red...i disagree..


All quadrants? It's only in two, north and south BUT more importantly the center (13.5N) is devoid of any convection and it is still ingesting dry air/dust so all i am saying is that yes it may develop but NOT as fast at the models!
Models have failed spectacularly with their cyclogenesis of Invests so far - remember what their forecast was for 92L and 93L - both were projected to be hurricanes north of PR but systems moved WEST and never really developed!
3550. Thrawst
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting..


another frontal situation hmmm....
Still a TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
3552. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


Front coming down as a Storm moves north.....seen that before in Port Charlotte, Fl........NO THAT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN ....besides i live in the protected city of Tampa now.
Is the TCVN a good model track wise?
3553. MahFL
Troll:
"a troll is someone who posts inflammatory,[2] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[3] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion."

Or stuff that is obviously misleading or simply untrue, etc etc.
Complete Update

HH is going home.

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





3555. wpb
Quoting wolftribe2009:
ECMWF at 240 hours shows a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf of Mexico

Link
what run 00z?
00z run?
11 AM out.. 30 mph still.
3557. Thrawst
Quoting NASA101:


All quadrants? It's only in two, north and south BUT more importantly the center (13.5N) is devoid of any convection and it is still ingesting dry air/dust so all i am saying is that yes it may develop but NOT as fast at the models!
Models have failed spectacularly with their cyclogenesis of Invests so far - remember what their forecast was for 92L and 93L - both were projected to be hurricanes north of PR but systems moved WEST and never really developed!


Invest 92L was basically sucked into Tropical Storm Gert. proximity kills yanno. :P

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION JUST BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 19
Location: 16.1°N 83.7°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting..


This was what I talking about yesterday, 1/2 expecting an invest or something rolling up off the Carolinas, blowing up on the gulfstream. Something for Newfoundland to watch. Not sure if the core is going to get warm enough..
3561. ncstorm
Quoting Skyepony:


This was what I talking about yesterday, 1/2 expecting an invest or something rolling up off the Carolinas, blowing up on the gulfstream. Something for Newfoundland to watch. Not sure if the core is going to get warm enough..


the NOGAPS has been developing this area for several runs now
Quoting NASA101:


All quadrants? It's only in two, north and south BUT more importantly the center (13.5N) is devoid of any convection and it is still ingesting dry air/dust so all i am saying is that yes it may develop but NOT as fast at the models!
Models have failed spectacularly with their cyclogenesis of Invests so far - remember what their forecast was for 92L and 93L - both were projected to be hurricanes north of PR but systems moved WEST and never really developed!



this is one time you can sit back and watch with your eyes ...if you cant tell all the convection in all quadrants and a TD will develop saturday.....im not going by the models im going by what i see on rgb...
3563. NASA101
98L looks spectacular for an Invest..unlike the crappy looking 97L....
anyone mention this yet?

"The death toll at the Pukkelpop music festival in Belgium, hit by a sudden violent storm, has now risen to five, say local officials.

Staging collapsed, giant screens fell, tents were flattened and trees were uprooted, all in the space of minutes after the storm struck.

Dozens more people were hurt, several seriously."

Link
3565. NASA101
Joe Bastardi is now conceding that 97L may be a player in the Gulf... he changed his tune since the last few days! LOL
3567. MahFL
Quoting Cotillion:
anyone mention this yet?

"The death toll at the Pukkelpop music festival in Belgium, hit by a sudden violent storm, has now risen to five, say local officials.

Staging collapsed, giant screens fell, tents were flattened and trees were uprooted, all in the space of minutes after the storm struck.

Dozens more people were hurt, several seriously."

Link


Not a good year for some festival go'ers.

Also an observation...with all the smartphones around, why aren't people more prepared for storms ?
Quoting NASA101:
98L looks spectacular for an Invest..unlike the crappy looking 97L....



you have your opinion and i respect it just dont agree with it..this will cause problems for the islands...very heavr rain will be hitting them by late sat night..
3569. Thrawst
Quoting Abacosurf:
This is for Presslord....

Why Some Men Have Dogs And Not Wives:

1. The later you are, the more excited your dogs are to see you.

2. Dogs don't notice if you call them by another dog's name.

3. Dogs like it if you leave a lot of things on the floor.

4. A dog's parents never visit.

5. Dogs agree that you have to raise your voice to get your point across.

6. You never have to wait for a dog; they're ready to go 24 hours a day.

7. Dogs find you amusing when you're drunk..

8. Dogs like to go hunting and fishing.

9. A dog will not wake you up at night to ask, "If I died, would you get another dog?"

10. If a dog has babies, you can put an ad in the paper and give them away.

11. A dog will let you put a studded collar on it without calling you a pervert.

12. If a dog smells another dog on you, they don't get mad. They just think it's interesting.

13. Dogs like to ride in the back of a pickup truck

And last, but not least:

14. If a dog leaves, it won't take half of your stuff.


To test this theory: Lock your wife and your dog in the garage for an hour. Then open it and see who's happy to see you.


LOL.
We had some unexpected thunderboomers come through last night...enjoyed the rain, but...

Lafayette Parish: Firefighters in the city and parish kept very busy last night as the intense storm passed through the area. They were dispatched to thirty incidents over a two hour period consisting of power lines down, tree branches burning, gas leaks, and two house fires. One house fire was in the city and the other in the parish.

Actually had gust over 70mph at our airport.
Quoting MahFL:


Not a good year for some festival go'ers.

Also an observation...with all the smartphones around, why aren't people more prepared for storms ?
not all wanee 2011 was big time fun
3572. MahFL
Quoting NASA101:
Joe Bastardi is now conceding that 97L may be a player in the Gulf... he changed his tune since the last few days! LOL


Good old Joe, he knows a bandwaggon when he see's it !
Man, if GFS came true, that not be good for my family, My parents and brother and sister live in Tampa and Sarasota (where they keep their boat), and I am in Statesboro. No helping each other out with that.
Way too many models now have a MAJOR HURRICANE in the GOM with a front bearing down!!!!
3575. MahFL
Quoting islander101010:
not all wanee 2011 was big time fun


I did say "some".
um... am I on everybody's ignore list? I'm not trolling, guys :(



Any Doubt where it is going..........
Quoting islander101010:
not all wanee 2011 was big time fun


I'll be at wanee 2012...we should have a WU tent!
NAO still weakly positive (0.99543E-01). I'll lean the Caribbean/Gulf route if we see this go more positive the next couple days.

What is the North Atlantic Oscillation?

The oscillation of the pressure difference between the Subtropical Ridge and the Icelandic Low.

The Positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low.

The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.
Quoting SavannahStorm:



This is not a scenario I'm too thrilled with...
That's 3 models back 8/18/11. The latest 1200z gfs is not out yet, but, you are right, who would be happy with that, or any of the scenarios presented by most of the models?

Quoting MahFL:


Not a good year for some festival go'ers.

Also an observation...with all the smartphones around, why aren't people more prepared for storms ?


Europe is behind America when it comes to weather warnings. Well behind. Less violent weather occurrences is probably the case.

I don't know if there were warnings around in Belgium, but I do think European mets were aware of the system.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
NAO still weakly positive (0.99543E-01). I'll lean the Caribbean/Gulf route if we see this go more positive the next couple days.

What is the North Atlantic Oscillation?

The oscillation of the pressure difference between the Subtropical Ridge and the Icelandic Low.

The Positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low.

The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.


Well put for those that don't understand...i gave you a +1 for that......LOL
In my opinion, we should see a track similar to the 00ZECMWF
Kinda a surprised they didn't upgrade TD#8, but what do I know, I know I've seen them upgrade TDs to TSs with less supportive data before , just saying....
3585. MahFL
Quoting TampaSpin:



Any Doubt where it is going..........


Yes !, it's crucial to the storms strength, along the islands will be weak, north or south possibly strong.

97L

RED ALERT LEVEL MIGHT BE COMING!!!!

It is looking a lot better. I honest would not be surprised if it goes RED Alert by 11 PM.

Link
Quoting wpb:
00z run?


12z


The GFDL says South!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Way too many models now have a MAJOR HURRICANE in the GOM with a front bearing down!!!!


Have we had a general consensus of the models like this during this season for any of the other invests?
Quoting TampaSpin:



Any Doubt where it is going..........


dang...


The HWRF.......says south also.......
Quoting hurricanehanna:


Have we had a general consensus of the models like this during this season for any of the other invests?


NOPE........NONE!
Quoting TampaSpin:


The GFDL says South!


We spoke about a Southerly track this morning but this is even farther South than I thought as that track is a heading of 270 degrees
Quoting BoroDad17:
Man, if GFS came true, that not be good for my family, My parents and brother and sister live in Tampa and Sarasota (where they keep their boat), and I am in Statesboro. No helping each other out with that.
Link please.
3596. MTWX
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL

I feel 90 when Im rolling out of bed and a low pressure system (of any kind) is in town....

Somehow in life I have turned into a human weather station...

You and me both!
\

Just my opinion but this is my track and cone for 97L.


This is the NOGAPS.......OUCH!
3599. Relix
97L: Dry air... no defined center. Etc. Seems to be constantly gaining convection but it needs to do so around the whole system and not just the NW quadrant. Also the ULL close to PR may pose a problem if it heads up here... though I believe it will continue its weak state and go into the Caribbean. I've seen weirder stuff happen before though!
Quoting wolftribe2009:


12z
Old 12z, 8/18/11 latest not out yet.
Quoting TampaSpin:


The HWRF.......says south also.......



ECMWF is very similar. Just think the turn will be sooner rather than later ATM.

3602. tramp96
Quoting TampaSpin:
Way too many models now have a MAJOR HURRICANE in the GOM with a front bearing down!!!!

When I pull up the gfs 06z the lowest pressure I see is 975mb. Newbie question tia
3603. Patrap
Expect a Updated entry here soon
Quoting kmanislander:


We spoke about a Southerly track this morning but this is even farther South than I thought as that track is a heading of 270 degrees


Kman.......we will know soon. Looks to me like you might be headed for a dozzzy.....HEADS UP Brother.
3605. spathy
Quoting Abacosurf:


As I said before tigger....

.

Don't understand why more people in the states don't have cisterns or at least a 55 gal container attached to a gutter......




Answer
Because its too difficult to store and retrieve all the little plastic water bottles in them.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Wow! That's quite a trough. Jackets, anyone?
Quoting Abacosurf:
This is for Presslord....

Why Some Men Have Dogs And Not Wives:

1. The later you are, the more excited your dogs are to see you.

2. Dogs don't notice if you call them by another dog's name.

3. Dogs like it if you leave a lot of things on the floor.

4. A dog's parents never visit.

5. Dogs agree that you have to raise your voice to get your point across.

6. You never have to wait for a dog; they're ready to go 24 hours a day.

7. Dogs find you amusing when you're drunk..

8. Dogs like to go hunting and fishing.

9. A dog will not wake you up at night to ask, "If I died, would you get another dog?"

10. If a dog has babies, you can put an ad in the paper and give them away.

11. A dog will let you put a studded collar on it without calling you a pervert.

12. If a dog smells another dog on you, they don't get mad. They just think it's interesting.

13. Dogs like to ride in the back of a pickup truck

And last, but not least:

14. If a dog leaves, it won't take half of your stuff.


To test this theory: Lock your wife and your dog in the garage for an hour. Then open it and see who's happy to see you.

Starting test......
tim I get what you are saying about the trough.They didthe same thing with Georges and Ivan.Hpc forecast has this trough still well to the north east.Storm fury has tried repeatedly to show how this system is already headed well south of where this models project it.This system will be at 57w by this time tommorrow and showing no signs as of now of turning northerly.In the yers of novice experience with these things When they are moving 20 mph due west theey dont just abrubtly change track its more gradually.Now in 7 days if this system does not slow down considerably it will be much further west than what a lot of these models are showing.If you remember,the trough that picked charley caused record low temps for the north gulfcoast regoin.In the extended forecast out of NO I see no mention of a trough that significant.Also if you remember Ivan was supposed to go over the sw coast of fla.ike off the east coast.I dont want this thing to hit anyone.But i really feel somewhere from West La. to the west.Fla panhandle will have to deal with this.And in closing;i still think thier is a oppurtunity for this to continue right to the yuc and pull a allen or gilbert track.Its wait and see.Storm Fury i get what your saying.
so, with all the excitement going on, I am just tuning back in.

can someone please fill me in? based on what I am reading, am I correct to say that even compared to yesterday, Florida seems to be more out of the woods?

I am probably going to get clobbered for asking that one! :)
You say Gulf, I say East Coast.. I believe this will get picked up by a trough and head towards North Carolina, perhaps further north. Or This may hit Florida. We know one thing for sure that this will NOT go out to sea.
Weather Safety Emergency Checklist
Be ready for a weather emergency in advance and put together a basic survival kit.

Food Items:
%u25A0Bottled drinking water
%u25A0Bread
%u25A0Crackers
%u25A0Cookies, snacks
%u25A0Canned fruit
%u25A0Canned meat, fish
%u25A0Apples, bananas
%u25A0Dried fruit
%u25A0Canned/boxed beverages
%u25A0Fruit drinks
%u25A0Peanut butter
Non-Food Items:

%u25A0Ice
%u25A0Coolers
%u25A0Plastic forks and cups
%u25A0Napkins
%u25A0Can opener (non-electric)
%u25A0Batteries for flashlights and radio
%u25A0Plastic trash bags
%u25A0Charcoal
%u25A0Water purifying tablets
%u25A0Flashlights
%u25A0Candles and matches
%u25A0Clothing and bedding
%u25A0Extra socks and underwear
%u25A0Pillows
%u25A0Sleeping bag and blankets
%u25A0Washcloth and towel for each person
%u25A0Soap, toothbrushes, toothpaste
%u25A0Deodorant
%u25A0Shaving kit
%u25A0Contact lens solution
%u25A0Hair care items and mirror
%u25A0Dentures
%u25A0Sanitary napkins and tampons
%u25A0Paper towels, toilet paper
%u25A0Hearing aid batteries
%u25A0Watch or clock
%u25A0Portable radio with fresh batteries
%u25A0Chlorine tablets
%u25A0Spare pair of eyeglasses
%u25A0Cash
%u25A0Prescription medicines
%u25A0Important papers (drivers licenses, insurance policies, social security cards)
%u25A0Toolbox with hammer, nails, screws, screwdrivers and wrenches (to use after the storm to make your home livable again)
%u25A0Cell phone (take an extra battery or a means to power or charge it)
%u25A0A list of people to contact for emergencies

First Aid Kit:
Keep contents of first aid kit in a waterproof metal or plastic box.

%u25A0Prescription medicines (four-week supply)
%u25A0Bandages and Band-Aids
%u25A0Antiseptic
%u25A0Adhesive tape rolls
%u25A0Aspirin
%u25A0Insect repellent
%u25A0First aid handbook
%u25A0Scissors
%u25A0Antibacterial soap
%u25A0Safety pins
%u25A0Thermometer
%u25A0Needle (for splinters)
Items for Infants:

%u25A0Small toys %u2013 include favorite stuffed animals
%u25A0Clothes
%u25A0Diapers and baby wipes
%u25A0Milk or formula
%u25A0Powders, creams or ointments
%u25A0Bottles and nipples
%u25A0Baby food
%u25A0Sheets, blankets, rubber pads
%u25A0Portable crib
%u25A0Plastic bags
%u25A0Pacifiers
Quoting Thunderpig75:


I'll be at wanee 2012...we should have a WU tent!
last two yrs we went primitive it was good but we showed up a day early basically grabbed a spot in the woods next yr might rent a spot from the park i heard eric clapton might come and play with the allman brothers " layla" next spring last yr they had the bathrm and shower scene well covered unlike the yr before. there will be life after storm season
Quoting TampaSpin:


The HWRF.......says south also.......


Near 16 N is where I believe it will come in. Until we have a closed low I prefer to ignore the models on track.



All the GFS MOdels.........
Quoting reedzone:
You say Gulf, I say East Coast.. I believe this will get picked up by a trough and head towards North Carolina, perhaps further north. Or This may hit Florida. We know one thing for sure that this will NOT go out to sea.


It may impact NC from the sw.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Any Doubt where it is going..........


Ummmm...is there supposed to be an island under all those lines?
My guess for 97L Track

I expect that 97L will pass near Martinique and Dominica but I am leaning more on a track near Eastern Cuba and into the Gulf once the storm gets to those areas.
I thought the pattern change of a westward building High was supposed to steer towards Florida?

Or is this system speeding up and will catch up with the trough?

when was this pattern change supposed to take place?
You guys are talking about 6-8 days away.. that's guessing... just look at near term up to 3 days.. we dont know if this will even go into Hispaniola or stay south. Impacting Hispaniola will disrupt the circulation and maybe causing the LLC to race away from the midlevel and it would take 2 days for the LLC to regain anything.. by then (days 6-7) it could be anywhere from nearing Cozumel to Bahamas as whatever.

Lets watch the near term in development first into a TD before we can get a grasp on overall direction in days 3-5.. and especially not after that.
Quoting Vincent4989:

Starting test......
Brave man!
3622. HCW
Quoting alvarig1263:
\

Just my opinion but this is my track and cone for 97L.


You really don't like me do you :) At least I wouldn't have to blow major money on gas for an intercept
3623. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





so any speculation on condiotions in PR for sunday night monday? Hurrican, Tropical Storm, Depression, a light breeze?
Margusity from accuwx is still into a FL-GA-SC-NC track... he seems a little skeptical of GFS runs...

Who knows, but I offer it for your consumption:

Link
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
tim I get what you are saying about the trough.They didthe same thing with Georges and Ivan.Hpc forecast has this trough still well to the north east.Storm fury has tried repeatedly to show how this system is already headed well south of where this models project it.This system will be at 57w by this time tommorrow and showing no signs as of now of turning northerly.In the yers of novice experience with these things When they are moving 20 mph due west theey dont just abrubtly change track its more gradually.Now in 7 days if this system does not slow down considerably it will be much further west than what a lot of these models are showing.If you remember,the trough that picked charley caused record low temps for the north gulfcoast regoin.In the extended forecast out of NO I see no mention of a trough that significant.Also if you remember Ivan was supposed to go over the sw coast of fla.ike off the east coast.I dont want this thing to hit anyone.But i really feel somewhere from West La. to the west.Fla panhandle will have to deal with this.And in closing;i still think thier is a oppurtunity for this to continue right to the yuc and pull a allen or gilbert track.Its wait and see.Storm Fury i get what your saying.


Agree it seems WEST it will go and likely into the Caribbean. How strong will be the big concern from there. Land interaction might help alot but still hurt many.
I really don't see this going in the Gulf right now.
Quoting reedzone:
You say Gulf, I say East Coast.. I believe this will get picked up by a trough and head towards North Carolina, perhaps further north. Or This may hit Florida. We know one thing for sure that this will NOT go out to sea.


Much is going to depend on how far to the north and west 97L is pulled by the ULL that is spinning off the east coast.

As it is at this moment, 97L is a weak system. So west for now.
I have a gut feeling that 97L will go into the carribean and stay there for the most part then curves to florida when it reach the Western Tip of cuba and while 97L festers in the caribbean I think this is going to be the one that becomes the first hurricane and possibley a major
3630. Relix
Quoting mrpuertorico:
so any speculation on condiotions in PR for sunday night monday? Hurrican, Tropical Storm, Depression, a light breeze?



Rain and light gusts :D
3631. spathy
Quoting mrpuertorico:
so any speculation on condiotions in PR for sunday night monday? Hurrican, Tropical Storm, Depression, a light breeze?


Yes :O)
Quoting CJ5:


Interesting, please elaborate.
Emily will go down in history as 2462nd worst storm of all time.
I find it very interesting how the model split going nearly both ways keep if off the Big Island of DR with those large mountains........
We commonly talk about the difference in input data for the 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC GFS runs.

So, how do the long-term landfall areas of the 00 and 12 GFS runs compare to the same for the 06 and 18 UTC?

00 and 12 UTC GFS forecasts from 08/15 00 UTC to 08/19 00 UTC:


06 and 18 UTC GFS forecasts from 08/14 18 UTC to 08/19 06 UTC:


I *think* I see that 06 and 18 tends to "whip" back and forth a bit further than the 00 and 12, but both are certainly doing it.

00 and 12 seems to like the N to NE GoM solution in the more recent runs more than 06 and 18.
Quoting whepton3:
Margusity from accuwx is still into a FL-GA-SC-NC track... he seems a little skeptical of GFS runs...

Who knows, but I offer it for your consumption:

Link


I completely agree with him, he also nailed Emilys track. I just don't see this entering the Gulf as of now, things may change though. However we saw the EURO switch back to an East Coast storm this morning.
97L looks to be centered near 13.5 N and 50.2 W although this is probably a little to the West of the projected position from the last official set.
3637. Patrap
Hurricane Georges (1998) track. Uses the color scheme from the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

Quoting mrpuertorico:
so any speculation on condiotions in PR for sunday night monday? Hurrican, Tropical Storm, Depression, a light breeze?

I would be expecting TS force conditions..especially southern and western side of the island.. possible hurricane conditions but too early to see how strong this would be until Sunday.
You all remember the storm that started with an "A" anniversary is coming.......it to was the first Cane of the season.........JUST SAYN
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







jinkies....Pat, this may be a good time to post (if you haven't already) that wonderful Hurricane kit and tips post you used to do....some folks may need reminders....
Quoting Relix:



Rain and light gusts :D


I'd start preparing for a tropical storm if I were you..
3642. spathy
Quoting TampaSpin:
You all remember the storm that started with an "A" anniversary is coming.......it to was the first Cane of the season.........JUST SAYN


Not only was it the first cane.
It was the first storm.
It only takes one storm to ruin your day.
Quoting Abacosurf:
Brave man!

Test done, seems like dog is happier than a wife.....
Quoting atmoaggie:
I *think* I see that 06 and 18 tends to "whip" back and forth a bit further than the 00 and 12, but both are certainly doing it.

00 and 12 seems to like the N to NE GoM solution in the more recent runs more than 06 and 18.


The real playa in 97Ls eventual track is that dadgum ULL. Right now the models cannot decide how much lift in latitude it is going to have on 97L.

We are all going to have to wait until Sunday / Monday to know for sure.
Quoting reedzone:


I completely agree with him, he also nailed Emilys track. I just don't see this entering the Gulf as of now, things may change though. However we saw the EURO switch back to an East Coast storm this morning.


Morning Reed... just an observation... but still the thing that bugs me is that over and over from model to model we saw that S FL and up the SEUS track... and it makes me think that the sudden gulf tracks look like outliers...

I heard some last night suggest the TX scenario might have been some sort of anomalous run.
3647. Patrap
No More Fernanda: NHC didn't mention it in their advisory.
3649. 7544
hi everyone looks like the slow down has speeded up no its only 5 days if fla is in play for 97l moving faster
Quoting reedzone:
I really don't see this going in the Gulf right now.


Hmmm... If was to make a call with the euro ensembles in the gulf right now i'd say the 12z run shifts back west into gulf.
Quoting Patrap:


I have never really understood those images.

Maybe you can explain?
a very simple question.... when is the trough supposed to dip down and when does the high build in?

let's see this in comparision to where 97L will be at that point

models seem to agree a trough is coming down. I think Rob Lightbown from Crown Weather a week back was saying (similar to Levi) that a building High westward could happen sometime around the 26th or 27th of this month or a few days after. interestingly enough that is when possible Irene could hit

feel free to chime in because this is getting interesting

Also, I saw the updated models that Patrap put up. suprisingly most of the models show this going over Hispanola compared to yesterday. Do the models show this system ramping up quicker than expected?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



ECMWF is very similar. Just think the turn will be sooner rather than later ATM.



Interesting weakness in the OH/TN valleys at that point in time with strong trough over the Hudson Bay... if that pans out, then the likelihood is that it (97L) will not get past 84W before it turns north, then NNE up the west coast of FL.
Reed you just because I live on the gulf coast I assure you i dont want this thing.But I think you got to admit this eeast coast gulfcoast common predictions over the last 2 years has been well off.These models have contiously over estimated the strength of these systems.In closing all of these systems tha t approach the carrib. have been flying.You no betterthan I that its much more diificult for them to organize or go poleward when they do that.But if you keep trying hard and get this to the east coast, you are going to have a lot mad folks at you lol.I will keep hoping it stays weak and goes away from the gulf coast lol.I will keep my skin that way lol .Good day.
3655. fishcop
Wow. That's not very nice to wake up to. Come on dry air!
It's really difficult to say that 97L will never be in the Gulf. The operational runs have had some wild swings the past 2 days, but the ensembles have been fairly consistent with their averages.

00z Euro Ensembles:



6z GFS Ensembles:

Quoting kshipre1:
a very simple question.... when is the trough supposed to dip down and when does the high build in?


The further out models suggest that the trough is going to flatten out and not dip down.
As I stated yesterday the, texas solution appeared to be a truncation issue with the GFS. The trough doesnt get lost in resolution this go around and the model seems to be trending toward the N to NE GoM. For the past 4 days I've stated that if I had to choose a target city it would be Panama City Beach FL and I see no reason to change that as of now. The spaghetti plots are still all over the place and it's still anybody's ballgame. I would recommend that we not focus on the operational GFS, instead look at the Means and Spreads of the various modeling output. Alot alot alot could still happen, but an east coast strike is appearing to be the least likely landfall event at this time.
Quoting Vincent4989:
No More Fernanda: NHC didn't mention it in their advisory.


It is in the Central Pacific now. After you go to the Eastern Pacific basin on the NHC site, there is an area you can click that links you to the CPHC.

Fernanda is barely a tropical storm, 40 MPH.
still a chance it goes out to sea especially if it develops into a depression by tomorrow sorry p.rico
3661. HCW
Quoting reedzone:


I completely agree with him, he also nailed Emilys track. I just don't see this entering the Gulf as of now, things may change though. However we saw the EURO switch back to an East Coast storm this morning.


He said Emily was headed for FL so I am not sure how he nailed that one :)
can't find HH data with Google Earth.
DO NOT let 97L into the Gulf!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
CU IN THE AFTERNOON AND FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 7 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011/
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
ONCE AGAIN PLAGUING NORTH TEXAS. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH 850 TEMPS OF 27-28C SUPPORTING SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 105-108F
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. DEWPOINTS
WILL MIX OUT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...BUT WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES...HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 TO 108 DEGREES CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WIND COMPONENT...DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER WHICH WILL STILL
SUPPORT 105 TO 108 HEAT INDICES DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT CONFIGURATION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS
PERFECT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
PRODUCT.

THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST OF THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS...BUT THE ECMWF
IS NOT AS IMPRESSED AS IT HAS BEEN REGARDING THE 500 HEIGHTS FALLS
OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS WOULD
BE UNDER VERY WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH REALLY WOULDNT BE
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES/COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE SAME
SOLUTION IT HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT 500 MB
WITH A TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE SE CONUS. THIS WOULD SEND A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH TEXAS AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS TROUGH IS FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS COULD
SIGNAL A SHIFT OR TREND IN THE OUTPUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD BE INFLUENCED BY ALL OF THIS
IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WITH A TRACK RANGING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST
TO THE EAST COAST OF THE US AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANY
POTENTIAL TRACK WOULD BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH AND EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO CLOSELY
WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMPUTER MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A
HARD TIME FORECASTING A POTENTIAL TRACK/INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT STILL HASNT DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND ANY
POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATION PROGGED BY A MODEL RUN SHOULD BE TAKEN
WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

85/NH

&&


Quoting hurricane23:


Hmmm... If was to make a call with the euro ensembles in the gulf right now i'd say the 12z run shifts back west into gulf.



i agree with that
LATEST SST LEVEL FOR AUG 19 12Z

Quoting alvarig1263:
\

Just my opinion but this is my track and cone for 97L.


I think there is a high over LA/TEX/Western Gulf with a front coming down through Ark/Tenn that precludes a northern gulf hit, IIRC. I think any action into the GOMEX takes a right hand turn, sparing NOLA.
Quoting kmanislander:
97L looks to be centered near 13.5 N and 50.2 W although this is probably a little to the West of the projected position from the last official set.


Hey Kman. I'm raising an eyebrow with 97L and agree with what you said early about its entry into the Caribbean. I have to wonder just when the anticipated WNW movement wil begin and still think the models may be move farther south.

I don't like these systems that enter the Eastern Caribbean around 15N and commence a WNW movement, as anything coming from our South-East can be trouble.
The big swing in the OP runs of the GFS/Euro are due to the large trof being depicted over the Great Lakes in the 8-10 day period. This is an extreme shift considering the 8-10 day 500mb mean of the Euro/GFS had been showing higher than normal heights across the Great Lakes the previous runs. Biting off on any one solution is not smart at this point because of the extreme shifts.


00z:
Good Morning! Blog is just cruising along at 100 mph. Every time I refresh, there is a new page of comments. Slow Down!!! LOL I only thought I was a speed reader.



Not much change in the HOLE SHOT for 97L......DANG!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
DO NOT let 97L into the Gulf!

Hard to fathom that it won't be in the gulf, at some point...

As much as I'd take a recurve out to sea, just doesn't seem likely.
Quoting AegirsGal:
Good Morning! Blog is just cruising along at 100 mph. Every time I refresh, there is a new page of comments. Slow Down!!! LOL I only thought I was a speed reader.


The blog is going very slow today compared to what it can when there is a hurricane affecting the USA.

Talk about fast.
Quoting AegirsGal:
Good Morning! Blog is just cruising along at 100 mph. Every time I refresh, there is a new page of comments. Slow Down!!! LOL I only thought I was a speed reader.
well it should slow down a bit now considering the 12z gfs is up to 12 hours now
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Emily will go down in history as 2462nd worst storm of all time.
helped break e cen fl.'s drought though how about "mvp storm"
new blog
Quoting HCW:


He said Emily was headed for FL so I am not sure how he nailed that one :)


Emily was headed to Florida......at some point.
3679. spathy
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hard to fathom that it won't be in the gulf, at some point...

As much as I'd take a recurve out to sea, just doesn't seem likely.


I was thinking the same thing.
Even if "it" hits Florida it could easily reform and do worse downstream, worse than an Andrews reform.
ALL MODELS ARE MEANT TO BE USED FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY AND DONOT DEPICT FINAL OUTCOME TO ANY ONE SINGLE EVENT THINGS CAN AND WILL CHANGE
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL FORECASTS OFFICES AND NHC/TPC FOR OFFICIAL ADVICE REGARDING EVENTS DEPICTED ON MODELS AND GUDIANCE FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS
Sigh, apparently I'm on ignore list... what did I do wrong?

Anyway, when the first recon into 97L?
3682. MtnWX10
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 19th, with Video


Excellent analysis! Thank you for clarifying current tropical discussions.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 19th, with Video


Brilliant as always Levi!!

Thanks!

Is there any thought that it stays south and misses the trough altogether?? I suppose the stronger the storm the chance of that happening decreases. TIA
3684. MahFL
It looks like on visible, 97L is forming some inflow banding. It's obviously spinning of course.
Quoting BradentonBrew:


I think there is a high over LA/TEX/Western Gulf with a front coming down through Ark/Tenn that precludes a northern gulf hit, IIRC. I think any action into the GOMEX takes a right hand turn, sparing NOLA.
Morning All. Been lurking. If I remember correctly. A local met said high in Atlantic moving westward as is a high currently over Texas/SW LA and it could send more storms next week into the Carribean.
Beware August they say. The most dreaded of all beasts comes forward. The dreaded Cape Verde Hurricanes,who spell DOOM to all in it's way.

Seems 97L forecast track eerily similar to the track of the fictional Hurricane Ella,from John D McDonalds fictional book Condominium, about real-estate and of course Hurricane Ella,who tracked thru Northern Leeward Islands,South of P.R.,D.R/Haiti, Cuba and made the turn north in response to a trof to her NW,and finally a landfall on Floridas west coast 40 miles south of Tampa.

Excellent book/read,a must read prior to the start of hurricane season!!
Why is it I can see some posts and not others.
Quoting midgulfmom:
Morning All. Been lurking. If I remember correctly. A local met said high in Atlantic moving westward as is a high currently over Texas/SW LA and it could send more storms next week into the Carribean.
Sorry forgot to mention point being that a wider area of the Gulf Coast could be vunerable to a hit....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LATEST SST LEVEL FOR AUG 19 12Z



GOM got some GO GO Juice in it or sure!
3691. wxhatt
Quoting whepton3:


Morning Reed... just an observation... but still the thing that bugs me is that over and over from model to model we saw that S FL and up the SEUS track... and it makes me think that the sudden gulf tracks look like outliers...

I heard some last night suggest the TX scenario might have been some sort of anomalous run.


Yes, model swings will occur this far out. An East Coast storm is definitely in the mix!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


GOM got some GO GO Juice in it or sure!


Ut Oh! You mean this? YIKES!

Next Recon is ~1200z
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 19th, with Video


Great tidbit Levi. Thanks for the update. What percentage would you give this being a Gulf storm?
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 19th, with Video


Thank you so much for the great update Levi. As I was pointing out yesterday it is still too early to pinpoint a landfall location especially due to the fact that this system is still in it's embrionic stages sort of speak. I concur with your analysis of how timing will affect this system. I believe that if it reaches TS status or stronger south of Puerto Rico it will cross north anywhere in the area between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico itself and become a FL coast rider and perhaps make landfall somewhere in the East Coast. As far as it recurving completely out to sea as we have previously seem, the stage will just not be set up for that to happen. Now if it stays as a wave or TD it will tend to continue a more westward movement and become a potential Central Gulf Coast to eastern Gulf Coast threat. Now this bring me to my questions. 1 Will this steering pattern become the norm for the peak of this season? and 2 What posibilities you see of this systems to form if it happen to enter the Caribean dead zone?
NEW BLOG!