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Caribbean disturbance 93L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:22 PM GMT on September 20, 2008

Tropical disturbance 93L is slowly getting more organized. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has moved closer to the center and has increased in recent hours. However, there is no evidence of a closed surface circulation on satellite images or from last night's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate level, about 15 knots, and some additional slow organization of 93L appears likely today.

Wind shear is forecast to remain 10-20 knots over the next five days, and four of the six reliable forecast models now predict that 93L will develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This development is forecast to happen near the southeastern Bahamas. The NHC is giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. I give a 60% chance that 93L will eventually develop into a tropical depression.

Expect heavy rains of 3-6" to affect Puerto Rico tonight through Sunday. On Sunday, heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The southeastern Bahamas can expect rains from 93L beginning on Monday night.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

Possible development off the coast of Africa
A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity emerged from the coast yesterday. The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots. However, the system is too close to the Equator to develop very quickly.

Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about six days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.

I'll have an update Sunday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. Vero1
Look where 93L(?) is on Tues



On Thursday Sept 25:



On Friday Sept 26:

For those who are wondering what the 'Perfect storm' was, it was an unnamed Hurricane formed from a Nor'easter and the remains of Hurricane Grace. Ever seen that movie with George Clooney, called 'The Perfect Storm', they were killed by the Unnamed Hurricane. Here's a picture of it.
RE: WU Ike Relief / PortLight -- Press, SJ, Pat - y'all are the greatest

RE: 426. quasigeostropic Thanks - Looking forward to it.
Quoting StormW:
495. tropics21 9:44 PM EDT on September 20, 2008
Hey Storm W Now that we have you here just what is that swirl of of spain ? the European agency said Ike was absorbed in Iceland so what is that a remenant of? or is it just by itself?



Let me take a look.


Storm, its the remains of Ike. Glad to see it a shell and weak version of its former self.
Off Spain it looks like a frontal system with tight wind gradients
I think this is the start of the Nor'easter.
Quoting will40:
Off Spain it looks like a frontal system with tight wind gradients


Its Ike, whats left of it.
508. Vero1
Here is the Official National Climatic Data Center/Noaa
account of the:The Perfect Storm
October 1991

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/cyclones/pfctstorm91/pfctstorm.html
Ike went into Greenland
SW....

ECMWF earlier this afternoon.

513. kdav
ohh them darn models are at it again. lol.
Storm,

If you're thinking 93L is not a perfect storm setup, what do you think it will do? TIA!
Quoting StormW:
504. CybrTeddy 9:50 PM EDT on September 20, 2008
Quoting StormW:
495. tropics21 9:44 PM EDT on September 20, 2008
Hey Storm W Now that we have you here just what is that swirl of of spain ? the European agency said Ike was absorbed in Iceland so what is that a remenant of? or is it just by itself?



Let me take a look.


Storm, its the remains of Ike. Glad to see it a shell and weak version of its former self.


Ike moved that far SE?


Ike apparently still Extra-Tropical moved off Greenland and headed into Spain. This is Ike and some other frontal System.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Storm, its the remains of Ike. Glad to see it a shell and weak version of its former self.
cyber teddy Ike got absorbed in iceland confirmed by the european weather agency there was nothing left of him
517. Vero1
Quoting chsstormgirl:
Storm,

If you're thinking 93L is not a perfect storm setup, what do you think it will do? TIA!
Look at post 501 and the forcast charts it shows the progression of 93L into the Bahamas as a Low/trough
40 gal tank full of gas in the old Suburban and can goods in the back. Should put me 11 hrs down the road where I'll look for somebody that looks hungry.
Heading out in the morning W on I-10.
Just have an empty feeling and need to shake it.
adios
519. kdav
i doubt if it does manifest inot a noreaster it will be as bad as teh perfect storm. i mean inches of snow in florida and 12 foot storm surge near and 100 mph wind gusts in cuba. and just unbelivable amounts of snow in teh northeast. caused 6 billion in damages
Quoting tropics21:
cyber teddy Ike got absorbed in iceland confirmed by the european weather agency there was nothing left of him


Got absorbed in iceland by another system, this is a combind Ike and another system.
Flare up near the center...

Link
As far as I know, this is what happened to Ike; the storm off Spain is totally different and came from the southeast - not even moving in the same direction:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Search and rescue teams were called out in many places in southwest Iceland last night because of a full-blown rainstorm. The Capital Region Fire Department helped people cope with leaks and bind loose objects that were blowing away in the storm. At Reykjavík Domestic Airport a small airplane blew into a fence. The weather did not, however, delay international flights yesterday, Morgunbladid reports. Ólafsvík on Snaefellsnes peninsula suffered from heavy downpour with the wind-speed reaching 30 meters per second. At the harbor, boat owners were busy fastening their vessels to shore. In the neighboring town of Hellissandur, emergency services were called out because of roofing slates that were coming loose. That was also the case in the Sudurnes region on Reykjanes peninsula and in the capital region. In Adalstraeti in downtown Reykjavík emergency services prevented a tent erected for an archeological excavation from blowing away. Meteorologists at the Icelandic Meteorological Office say the storm was caused by an exceptionally deep depression which was accompanied by the remains of Hurricane Ike. The storm is expected to travel across east Iceland today.

Link
Yea, its not Ike, just checked the real Ike went off into Iceland. I thought what happened because I was watching the remains of Ike and then got distracted by 92L/93L and I thought that another system combined with Ike merged with it off Greenland and headed SSE.
The SHIPS model forecast shows shear ''shouldn't'' be a major problem for 93L. We'll see, though.

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL932008 09/21/08 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 53 61 69 75 76 77 77
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 33 30 28 27 27 30 31 31
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 28 27 27 27 27 36 43 50

SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 9 5 9 13 6 6 9 6 9 5 8
SHEAR DIR 264 283 322 334 252 304 259 321 192 309 212 358 236
SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8
Quoting StormW:
Quoting chsstormgirl:
Storm,

If you're thinking 93L is not a perfect storm setup, what do you think it will do? TIA!


The energy will make the Nor'easter stronger, but not to the proportions of the "Perfect Storm".


Nor'easters are no fun at all too.
528. CybrTeddy would be worse in the Winter tho
I was watching that swirl come south along British Coast from Sveldbard, now off Spain.
Is there a good source for arctic sats. other than Canada's
Tired and hungry (second problem is about to be solved in a truly unreal fashion; thanks code!).

Just posted a quick update in my blog.

May stop in before shuteye.
Nite all...lets hope the tropics are still relatively quiet tomorrow and hoping the season is over.
533. JLPR
im a little worried now =S
93L is looking much better organized and getting better with each frame =O

and apparently this is heading my way to PR
I dont think it will be perfect storm strength but I think that 93l and the nor easter will be together. There are a couple of scenerios. 93l develops and a tropical storm heads toward the east coast. 93l doesn't develop and becomes a nor easter off the east coast. 93l develops and gets consumed by the nor easter off the east coast. Or 93l gets ripped apart and part of it goes into the nor easter and part stays in the caribbean where it could possible develop. I'm leaning toward 93 developing into a ts then getting absorbed into the nor easter.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Tired and hungry (second problem is about to be solved in a truly unreal fashion; thanks code!).

Just posted a quick update in my blog.

May stop in before shuteye.
SJ....thanks for all you and the gang have done....stay well.
12z ECMWF...

Link
537. ackee
looking on satellite is 93L moveing NNW ? see moveing west to me
Did you guys know that we have someone from Greenland on the blog?

Quoting zoomiami:
Did you guys know that we have someone from Greenland on the blog?

thats so cooll
wrook
if youre here say hi.....
I think that everyone involved in getting the donations/needed items out has been wonderful.

Just remember that it is a team effort, and each contribution, time, money or items altogether is what makes it happen.

Some have contributed a tremendous amount of their time & they get special stars...
The sky outside tonight is beautiful, very midnight blue with lots of fluffly clouds, not sure why it looks so different, but it sure is nice.

Just got back from downtown Miami picking up my daughter - amazing its a zoo there at this time of the night.
543. Vero1
Quoting ackee:
looking on satellite is 93L moveing NNW ? see moveing west to me
It will have to move NNW if it is to be where it is forcast to be on Fri Sept 26 Surface Chart shown in Post #501 above.
Nice blowup with 93L.
Quoting zoomiami:
Just got back from downtown Miami picking up my daughter - amazing its a zoo there at this time of the night.


No... You didn't say that.... :-)

LOL!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nice blowup with 93L.
wow
is it me or is it moving west?
547. Vero1
72 Hr. Surface Forcast:

yep - where do you think the zoo came from? My house is a zoo, I live in carnival land, always something going.

Restaurants serve until 1 am, bands & dj's don't start until 11 or later, and the drug store is packed at 3 am.

Hey zoo..you are right about the sky tonight..nice. Gettibg kids from kendall village now.
Quoting zoomiami:
yep - where do you think the zoo came from? My house is a zoo, I live in carnival land, always something going.

Restaurants serve until 1 am, bands & dj's don't start until 11 or later, and the drug store is packed at 3 am.

too funny lol always wondered why thanks for the info
you can't tell which way it is moving with just a couple of frames
I wonder if anybody has seen this yet (it is still being developed but you can see forecasts from it):

The FIM Model
NOAA/ESRL scientists have developed an initial version of a new global model including use of the adaptive isentropic-sigma hybrid vertical coordinate successful with the RUC model, accurate finite-volume horizontal advection, and use of an icosahedral horizontal grid. ESRL is collaborating with NCEP/EMC on ESMF-compatibility of the FIM model, and was aided by GFDL on its initial design.



Here is a sample forecast:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Since its slow I guess off topic for one won't kill - at one point, when all our kids were at home, we had 5 teenagers attending high school, two ours, 3 we sort of adopted -and 2 little ones. Add the dogs, cats, and birds, and a zoo.

The crush of kids is down now - little ones are now teens, only 6 of us in house now. Still have dogs, cats, birds, fish & a bearded dragon..lol.

Lots of the teens come in and out - but we like it that way - we know what they are up to.

Hence the zoo - have a tree skirt the has "Zoo Crew" on it.
554. Relix
Still not a drop of rain here in north PR. Could 93L become a TD before reaching us? And when will it hit us?
Quoting Relix:
Still not a drop of rain here in north PR. Could 93L become a TD before reaching us? And when will it hit us?


to soon to tell
hi storm w n hurr 23 and all...Just was wanting your input on whether any of you think october could possibly be active? and possible formation areas? not sure if we'll get to 18 named like some were saying either? Im going to stick with numbers of 15 8 5? thanks for any input
558. JLPR
Quoting Relix:
Still not a drop of rain here in north PR. Could 93L become a TD before reaching us? And when will it hit us?


no rain? where you? lol im in Carolina and I have seen rain plus I got my feet all wet =(
Hey Storm - but it keeps you young! What would you do if you didn't have the circus going on all the time?

Did you have to get a new computer or were they able to fix yours?
Quoting MichaelSTL:
I wonder if anybody has seen this yet (it is still being developed but you can see forecasts from it):

The FIM Model
NOAA/ESRL scientists have developed an initial version of a new global model including use of the adaptive isentropic-sigma hybrid vertical coordinate successful with the RUC model, accurate finite-volume horizontal advection, and use of an icosahedral horizontal grid. ESRL is collaborating with NCEP/EMC on ESMF-compatibility of the FIM model, and was aided by GFDL on its initial design.



Here is a sample forecast:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Wow... thanks for that... definitely someting new to look at and see how well it performs.
.....
very quiet here...................
where is everybody?????
:(
561. billy305 10:47 PM EDT on September 20, 2008
.....
very quiet here...................

i am sure this time tomorrow will be a different story
565. Relix
Quoting JLPR:


no rain? where you? lol im in Carolina and I have seen rain plus I got my feet all wet =(


Levittown. Heck it isn't even cloudy. Come on I want some action XD
i 93l is moving west?
Quoting Relix:


Levittown. Heck it isn't even cloudy. Come on I want some action XD


Careful what you wish for.
Quoting system345:
i 93l is moving west?
thats what i see
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Careful what you wish for.
for real
you never know
570. Vero1
Quoting system345:
i 93l is moving west?
I hope so I don't want it in the Bahamas as forcast next week.
So what is this nor'easter I'm hearing about? The Perfect Storm of 91 is like a situation where it only happens once in like 50 years or so. A lot of different factors have to come together to form such a storm. For instance:
in the October to November Perfect Storm a cold front was moving southeast from Canada towards the Northeastern US, a separate low pressure center was forming off the East Coast and south of Nova Scocia and then last but not least hurricane Garce became involved. There the storm actually moved into a loop and came as far south as east of MD and NJ. There were reports of gusts close to 80mph on the coast. The Andrea Gail lost all five of its crew members in the Perfect Storm. Now if this was the case with 93L and the forecasted Nor'easter by the models then we could be looking at an even bigger situation, however I doubt this will happen at this time, however 93L is looking much better then this time yesterday. Plus my local NWS is barely even mentioning it except for high pressure in control.
do u think the models will change their track tommrow?
Quoting dean2007:
So what is this nor'easter I'm hearing about? The Perfect Storm of 91 is like a situation where it only happens once in like 50 years or so. A lot of different factors have to come together to form such a storm. For instance:
in the October to November Perfect Storm a cold front was moving southeast from Canada towards the Northeastern US, a separate low pressure center was forming off the East Coast and south of Nova Scocia and then last but not least hurricane Garce became involved. There the storm actually moved into a loop and came as far south as east of MD and NJ. There were reports of gusts close to 80mph on the coast. The Andrea Gail lost all five of its crew members in the Perfect Storm. Now if this was the case with 93L and the forecasted Nor'easter by the models then we could be looking at an even bigger situation, however I doubt this will happen at this time, however 93L is looking much better then this time yesterday. Plus my local NWS is barely even mentioning it except for high pressure in control.


Thats because it looks to be more for the se us.
Quoting system345:
do u think the models will change their track tommrow?
definitely
Am reposting....wanna make sure this gets seen...

Total revenue since Monday AM: $13475.00

Expenitures: $10400.00 - this includes vehilcles, supplies, FUEL, insurance, freight...and some VERY LIMTED creature comforts for crew... I'm eating the phone charges....

Activity: Jacksonville/Atlanta crews arrive today...Charleston crews arrive tomorrow.....NOLA crew arrives Thursday...another Charleston crew will leave Thursday or Friday....plus several shipments being sent through commercial freight carriers as logistics dictated...

photos at stormjunkie's Wunderblog....

y'all rock....

www.portlight.org
576. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


Levittown. Heck it isn't even cloudy. Come on I want some action XD


lol well its clear here too =) the rained stopped =) and the plants are happy
so you guys think the model swill change the track to due west tommorow which will take it prob into jamaica then the gulf?
Press, if you watch the 11 PM newcast coming up momentarily, we're going to run more video of SJ and crew.
93L is looking pretty good. WHat are the chance that it develops in its current status? And what about the wave off of Africa? I haven't heard much on it.
Quoting system345:
so you guys think the model swill change the track to due west tommorow which will take it prob into jamaica then the gulf?
maybe a liitle more north of jamaica
thanks chuck
552.MichaelSTL
Adaptive isentropic-sigma hybrid vertical coordinate, accurate finite-volume horizontal advection, and icosahedral horizontal grid.

Now I know exactly why I have been here for years and have never posted!!! LOL
how strong do you think it will be if it affects the east coast or how strong itf it moves where it is currently moving (west)
580. billy305 10:59 PM EDT on September 20, 2008
Quoting system345:
so you guys think the model swill change the track to due west tommorow which will take it prob into jamaica then the gulf?
maybe a liitle more north of jamaica

to soon to tell..have to wait for recon tomorrow to tell us what exactly is going on.
585. Vero1
Quoting billy305:
definitely
Look at the Forcast location of 93L and the Low that is forcast off the So Carolina coast on Sept 25 and how that Low moves NE and intensifies on the 26th. While 93L hangs in the Bahamas.
25th:


26th
586. kdav
there is practically nothing off of africa at the moment.
Just finished the trip from Mobile back into Houston. A big THANK YOU to those of you who provided links to newspapers and such for the cities along the route.

I cannot tell you the overwhelming feeling that I had as we came upon the staging areas for all of the emergency crews and the good, good folks who are here to help Texas get back on its feet. Truly...I was in awe. It's good to be home now.
588. kdav
good blowup over 93l and we are just about to approach dmax.
Quoting system345:
how strong do you think it will be if it affects the east coast or how strong itf it moves where it is currently moving (west)

It's not moving due west. The convection is building west but the center has been on the nw side of the convection all day. It's been moving nw most of the day.
93L is not moving west, still NNW. Don't be fooled by the convection that is firing westward as it develops giving it the appearance of a westward movement. The system as a whole is still moving NNW.
Quoting RTLSNK:
552.MichaelSTL
Adaptive isentropic-sigma hybrid vertical coordinate, accurate finite-volume horizontal advection, and icosahedral horizontal grid.

Now I know exactly why I have been here for years and have never posted!!! LOL


yep - pretty picture - didn't understand a word it said.
to soon to tell
Quoting HrDelta:
93L is looking pretty good. WHat are the chance that it develops in its current status? And what about the wave off of Africa? I haven't heard much on it.


Ive raised my chances of development to what Jeff Master's says, 60%.
594. kdav
i doubt if the low and 93l come that close tha they wil not affect eachother.
ok do you think it will be a shipping interest storm at this rate after puerto rico or affect the east coast and if it does how strong do you think it will be
596. Mikla
Average plot of all model data. There is a bit of an east shift in the average and winds are down.
597. kdav
i say maybe 55 percent as it ahsnt shown me anything really. but a nice blow up so far see if it persists.
Quoting zoomiami:


yep - pretty picture - didn't understand a word it said.
me neither!
lol
Press... you had time to watch da dawgs?
Quoting zoomiami:


yep - pretty picture - didn't understand a word it said.


Of course, you don't need to know the details of how a model works to read the maps it produces (the example map I posted is a sea level pressure map; to be exact, the current 168 hour forecast, that is 93L it shows in the middle; the thing to the east is the African wave).
Quoting Chucktown:
Press, if you watch the 11 PM newcast coming up momentarily, we're going to run more video of SJ and crew.


Just saw it, so awesome to see that!
602. Vero1
Quoting kdav:
i doubt if the low and 93l come that close tha they wil not affect eachother.
I, too do not think that they will get close enough to interact. What will be interesting is how it plays with the cold front from Central FL into that Low off the Carolinas.
603. Relix
Puerto Rico is so screwed if 93L keeps up that track XD. I expect heavy rains, but I have this feeling that if 93L slowsdown it could become a TD.
Evening everyone.
605. Vero1
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone.
What is this I hear? Tampa Bay Rays clinch first playoff berth in franchise history
rays? playoffs?...
Quoting tkeith:
rays? playoffs?...
yup
608. ackee
where 93L is moveing? NHC say NNW but on satellite seem more west movement even covection is buliding more west than north
Link just watched the special needs equipment arrive in houston..maybe this link thing will work??
Quoting billy305:
yup


305? Are you in Miami also?
I have a comment on Dr. Masters Wunderpoll questions. Besides voting on the question, why not have a blog dedicated to a discussion of why a person feels and voted the way they do? The last question deals with what I would consider a complicated issue. Where the persons in Texas along the coast should loose there homes because of this low/high tide law making this land public land. I don't think that this is a simple issue, because in affect the government is actually trying to govern what the weather does. If this land was considered unsuitable to build homes on in the first place, then why were the many homes allowed to be built there in the first place? I think that this how subject deserves it's own blog for discussion.
Quoting Nocturnal37:


305? Are you in Miami also?
yup
proud miami resident
Quoting billy305:
yup
proud miami resident


Cool. Yeah, crazy city but it's home. :) Back to lurking....
614. 7544
one thing for sure so the stroms are afriad to go to so se fla this season so far they say like na na we will take the other route lol
Quoting Nocturnal37:


Cool. Yeah, crazy city but it's home. :) Back to lurking....
very crazy
I agree MNtornado.

Rays? Playoffs?

So what. I say the Rays make it to the second round. With the talent they were able to get from all of the lousy seasons they have had in their organization's lifetime, I would hope with all of those 1st overall draft picks or 1st round draft picks they would eventually be able to muster up a team to at least make it to the playoffs. They have a decent pitching rotation and the Red Sox would be glad to take on the Angels. The Rays will have some problems with their lineup, but I'm not saying the Red Sox don't either, but I'm sorry 2 World Championships in 4 years is quite remarkable, I believe even more impressive then finally making it to the playoffs for the first time in what? 13 years. Anyways on that note I'm going to bed, and good luck to the Rays this year in the playoffs, they will make for an interesting October.
605. Vero1 11:13 PM EDT on September 20, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone.
What is this I hear? Tampa Bay Rays clinch first playoff berth in franchise history


Can you believe.......wow
Bad news bears: a circle of convection has flared up right over the LP center of 93.

And I'm going to say it again: TX/SWLA are unlucky Ike hit on an election year (or on a year where Wall Street decides to fall out). I've been personally concerned about the ongoings in Southern Plaquemines lately but haven't heard much about TX/SWLA and this weekend is the first I've had a chance to catch up on the local news outlets; seems like a lot of news isn't making it out of the SE TX region.
Quoting 7544:
one thing for sure so the stroms are afriad to go to so se fla this season so far they say like na na we will take the other route lol


Just like there was a "bubble of protection" over Houston?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1149 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2008

.UPDATE...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCAL WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE MOVE ON SHORE AFFECTING THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO
PRODUCING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE
SATELLITES IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.
THE MAJOR BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON

Good evening all :)

Seems like this time last night the HRWF was the outlier, the sole model predicting a northward turn between PR and DR. The rest all had 93L moving more westerly into the Caribbean.

Now it seems all of the major ones see the storm turning north.

(Has my curiosity as a software developer as to what data the one model reacted upon last night that took 24 hours for the others to notice)

Anyone have more intimate programming knowledge of how the models are constructed?

i think by tommorows end 93l will be td 11 moving west
Quoting THUNDERPR:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1149 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2008

.UPDATE...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCAL WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE MOVE ON SHORE AFFECTING THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO
PRODUCING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE
SATELLITES IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.
THE MAJOR BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON



Yep, until we know where the true center is, well you get the picture.
The models dont have a clue right now. Recon may go in tomorrow and then they will have a better idea
Quoting THUNDERPR:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1149 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2008

.UPDATE...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCAL WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE MOVE ON SHORE AFFECTING THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO
PRODUCING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE
SATELLITES IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.
THE MAJOR BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON


93L is getting together looks like the L presure pull the brekes to became Kyle.
Quoting MNTornado:
I have a comment on Dr. Masters Wunderpoll questions. Besides voting on the question, why not have a blog dedicated to a discussion of why a person feels and voted the way they do? The last question deals with what I would consider a complicated issue. Where the persons in Texas along the coast should loose there homes because of this low/high tide law making this land public land. I don't think that this is a simple issue, because in affect the government is actually trying to govern what the weather does. If this land was considered unsuitable to build homes on in the first place, then why were the many homes allowed to be built there in the first place? I think that this how subject deserves it's own blog for discussion.


I do work for a title company in Texas, I'll ask their agents when I go in on Monday... But I think there is a disclosure when signing the closing documents stating this fact.

From another perspective, once you're in the tide zone, it's game over anyway. Wind interaction with the building will keep the beach from building in front of it and the ocean will encroach on it. Short of building a sea wall or beach nourishment which are often done with public funds and have externalities for the rest of the beach, the house is lost anyway.

The ocean has no respect for property lines. Fighting the ocean on barrier islands is insanity. Yes, insanity. They were formed by the ocean and are destroyed by the ocean then are rebuilt again. They were and are part of a system that we depend on for the coasts to behave like we expect them to. When we develop these islands and the shallow mainland behind it, we change the nature of this system. When you change the nature of a system unexpected things can happen. I recommend anyone that is interested in beaches and the ocean to study about what we've learned from oceanside development in the last 50 years. The ocean is an amazingly dynamic system.
Quoting SunriseSteeda:

Good evening all :)

Seems like this time last night the HRWF was the outlier, the sole model predicting a northward turn between PR and DR. The rest all had 93L moving more westerly into the Caribbean.

Now it seems all of the major ones see the storm turning north.

(Has my curiosity as a software developer as to what data the one model reacted upon last night that took 24 hours for the others to notice)

Anyone have more intimate programming knowledge of how the models are constructed?



When a system is in such early stages the models are notoriously unreliable. There's no telling where a storm center could eventually form/reform (if it even does develop) and what the steering currents will be when/if it does form at whatever location. Even with a developed system the models can be initialized with bad data, but the data is usually even worse when a system is in the process of developing (or not).
Quoting jdjnola:


When a system is in such early stages the models are notoriously unreliable. There's no telling where a storm center could eventually form/reform (if it even does develop) and what the steering currents will be when if it does form at whatever location. Even with a developed system the models can be initialized with bad data, but the data is even worse when a system is in the process of developing (or not).



Exactly!
627. jdjnola 12:04 AM EDT on September 21, 2008
Quoting SunriseSteeda:

Good evening all :)

Seems like this time last night the HRWF was the outlier, the sole model predicting a northward turn between PR and DR. The rest all had 93L moving more westerly into the Caribbean.

Now it seems all of the major ones see the storm turning north.

(Has my curiosity as a software developer as to what data the one model reacted upon last night that took 24 hours for the others to notice)

Anyone have more intimate programming knowledge of how the models are constructed?




When a system is in such early stages the models are notoriously unreliable. There's no telling where a storm center could eventually form/reform (if it even does develop) and what the steering currents will be when if it does form at whatever location. Even with a developed system the models can be initialized with bad data, but the data is even worse when a system is in the process of developing (or not).


The BAM models are best used during storm development like 93L

These are the 3 BAM models.....
BAMD BAMM BAMS
Go Sox
i think 93l will move west into the west caribean
Link

Radar from San Juan, PR, definitely a spin.
When Ike was in the GOM, there was a discussion here about the pros/cons of weather modification to reduce the strength of the hurricane. In particular there was a discussion of a substance called dyna-gel that might reduce the intensity of the hurricane by a category or two. (even some speculation that it might have been used to keep Ike from the intensity expected from crossing the warm loop current). It would be interesting to hear more about the feasibility and advisability of such technology while there is no immediate storm threat. In particular, is it possible that there may be a trade-off in turning a small intense hurricane into a larger less-intense one? Ike may have been more damaging as a large category 2 than it would have been as a small category 4.
If 93L is at 16N 66W then why does this buoy have winds from the S ??

Link
i stil think d 11 by toomorow and a major hurricane down the road if it moves west
I have relied on the Dr. Masters and the information pooled on this internet site for years now. I can’t be definitive as some of you as to when I first found the site. But, I recall, that there was a storm in the Gulf and I was having trouble accessing the NWS via my dial-up modem (I’m always out in the sticks --sometimes past the sticks--in Texas). A Google search brought me to the website and I stayed.

However, I have not followed the blog comments until recently. I have to tell you that the culture of this group is quit different from other internet communities to which I belong. I imagine my other interests are very dissimilar to most of yours.

But, I see similarities in each community. The long-term members have a camaraderie and a understanding of what they find acceptable and don’t. In some groups, attempts are made to marginalize newcomers or others who do not share the same (preferred ) perspective. In every community to which I have belonged, there are individuals I characterize as cyber-jerks. Their main focus seems to be on tearing someone else down.

It still boggles my mind how some folks can get so riled up about the things they do. For example, in a community geared to the restoration and preservation of old tombstones, two individuals clashed over what was the best method to clean an old tombstone. The correspondence quickly escalated from banter to all caps, large point (36 pt. or better) yelling at each other. Both were chastised, one was banned, and the other had to change her contact information due to the harassment. In a second situation, we had one person (in Australia) yelling (in large, red font) at another person in the US; “I’ve forgotten more about Artificial Insemination (of goats) than you’ll ever learn!” [smiles, shakes head]

I have not seen anyone (yet) in the community reach these levels. However, the font size and color options available for blog posting are fairly limited [smile]. What I do find intriguing is the frequent branding of individuals as “trolls.” In other communities to which I belong--non-mainstream as they may be-- a true troll is a very rare occurrence. Even more rare, probably, is for someone to be branded as a troll.

A few days ago, someone else posted a comment about the troll-branding in this group. It really does appear that anyone who does not quickly become attuned to the standard operation parameters of the group is branded as a troll. I have not been able to follow the logic of this. Perhaps some individuals have indeed been acting as cyber-shrews or cyber-jerks; however, I am not sure their only intent was to disrupt the dialog--which is, I believe, the definition of troll.

What I do find very neat about the community is the ability of many individuals to continue on with their posts on specific topics despite a lot of traffic. I am interested in many things. I enjoy the very technical posts as well as the ones pertaining to a wider range of subjects. But, then, I am not territorial.

The point behind this is that in many cyber-communities, there are disagreements and some unpleasant exchanges. I’ve just never before participated in a community in which choosing to ignore the comments of someone else was so common. (I’ve been in one group for over12 years and I block the comments of only person .) In my long-term communities (12 years and 10 years). I have read the term “troll“--applied to a specific individual--once. So to see it so frequently tossed around here seems very odd.

Many of you have so much to share that can enrich and education others. And, some of you provide color and relief. I, personally, appreciate you all (well, almost all, I find the tin-foil hat comments are lame and condescending). I realize that the traffic picks up with outsiders with events such as Ike; however, in the end, I find it a shame that more tolerance isn’t practiced. It’s very easy to quietly skim over the comments of those whom one does not mesh. (As I image a lot of folks interested in 93L will do this long entry.)

I think there was a song about this--something about “Let it be.”

Thank you all for technical forecast and analysis, general information sharing, humor, and sharing of experiences. For me, it is good to be exposed to folks who have different perspectives.
Thank-you CT! Greatly appreciated!

We are in Destin and will make the rest of the trip in the morning. Hooking up with FLDART and will head in to Bridge City tomorrow afternoon to get with the Bridge City FD

Night all
kman do you think 93l will move west and not north?
93L COC 14.6N / 65.5W meandering.
It is a real bummer that Ike's aftermath has fallen off the radar screen for the most part. I keep seeing rumours that "thousands" of people are still missing. Did they get 'lost' in the evacuation or are there alot of dead we are not hearing about?
642. JRRP
i think the center is 15.9 66.9
Quoting JRRP:
i think the center is 15.9 66.9


could very well be there, I see 2 possible COCs, I think it will move westward and follow that tail feature ahead of it, JMO.
644. Enola
Quoting Celia1970:

RE #637: In-groups and out-groups, Celia. It has happened on every message board I've tried to participate in. I'm not attempting to place any blame, for we see it in every aspect of our culture, from the historical to present-day.

Just the way we humans behave, I guess. For anyone interested, Celia's post is excellent. I recommend reading it.
Quote from AP Article:

"GALVESTON, Texas - Rats, raw sewage and a no-excuses curfew await exiled residents who try to return to storm-wrecked Galveston Island when it reopens next week, officials warned Saturday, a week after Hurricane Ike came thundering ashore.

Ugly as the city's last week and immediate future may be, the grim predictions didn't seem to scare some of the 45,000 evacuated islanders from trying to get home, even though most of the island won't open back up until Wednesday.

Another miles-long traffic jam clogged the only highway into the city Saturday. Some ignored orders to turn around, while others resorted to deception to sneak past police guarding a roadblock.

David Culpepper met his brother Joe in Atlanta, put a phony magnetic sign on a truck to masquerade as contractors and drove down to help a third brother, Michael, who owns an antiques shop on Galveston.

Guards at the checkpoint waved Joe and David Culpepper right in.

"Not getting on this island was not an option," David Culpepper said. "We have a brother in need."

It could be weeks or more before basic services are restored in all areas. Authorities cautioned that residents could find drastically different conditions depending on how their property fared."

More information on general situation in article.

Article Citation:

Ike evacuees jump gun, sneak back onto island
By CAIN BURDEAU and ANGELA K. BROWN (Associated Press Writers)
From Associated Press
September 20, 2008 9:34 PM EDT

Link
Good evening all
Here is a steering flow map for 93L.....should go NOrth for a while and then move due WEST .....
648. Enola
Quoting Orcasystems:
Good evening all

Good evening, Orca! May we expect more of your fine weather graphics tonight?
so what you guys are saying is that it will affect the conus but where in the onus is the big question
650. Enola
Quoting TampaSpin:
Here is a steering flow map for 93L.....should go NOrth for a while and then move due WEST...

And then clobber Haiti and Cuba...again. Those folks don't need this.
Quoting Enola:

Good evening, Orca! May we expect more of your fine weather graphics tonight?


Yes... just updating them now
Spent the last hour installing the wifes new cheap network printer..so she could print color.. whoopie dooo
653. Enola
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog refreshed

Thanks Orca!
What's like hurricane wobble watching but much slower? MJO wobble watchin... Hard wobble right when last updated. Closest it has been to the West Pacific since June 27th.
Quoting Skyepony:
What's like hurricane wobble watching but much slower? MJO wobble watchin... Hard wobble right today. Closest it has been to the West Pacific since June 27th.
?????
what
whats send 93L to MX its there turn now
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats send 93L to MX its there turn now


NO WAY, its the only place left for me to go on vacation
Billy~ That's like a graph of the world with a record of the most concentrated area of upward motion or lift causing rain & storms. There was speculation that it would skip the West Pacific again & come straight to the Atlantic basin but well it fell off it's straight beline of a course with, well a wobble. Has it changed direction? maybe so, maybe not..
657. Orcasystems 10:05 PM PDT on September 20, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats send 93L to MX its there turn now


NO WAY, its the only place left for me to go on vacation



LOL
Good Evening all....

Can someone please put a restraining order on 93L? Make it stop!
@637 - I sincerely want to thank you for this post. I am a lurker for the very reasons you expressed in your post. There is such a wealth of information here that this blog is without a doubt a gem on the net. The whole "troll" and "***casting" takes so much away from such an incredible blog. I come here because I want to learn and don't see the need of some to criticize anything that doesn't fit into their perspective. I truly thank you for expressing this in a positive way and hope that those who run for the "troll spray" and "***caster" terms will take it to heart as well.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Good Evening all....

Can someone please put a restraining order on 93L? Make it stop!


We just did, anywhere but mexico
660. Beachfoxx 1:08 AM EDT on September 21, 2008
Good Evening all....

Can someone please put a restraining order on 93L? Make it stop!


Sorry but, tomorrow is organization day for 93L.....
Quoting Skyepony:
Billy~ That's like a graph of the world with a record of the most concentrated area of upward motion or lift causing rain & storms. There was speculation that it would skip the West Pacific again & come straight to the Atlantic basin but well it fell off it's straight beline of a course with, well a wobble. Has it changed direction? maybe so, maybe not..
ok
665. 7544
hey tampa i agree with you but how far n you see 93 going before the due west trend tia
666. Enola
Quoting billy305:
ok

Yup! I didn't understand it either. ROFL!!!
LOL, I'd rather 93L stay out of the GOM, away from Mexico... but I think TampaSpin is right... 93 is gonna get its act together tomorrow.
Quoting Orcasystems:


We just did, anywhere but mexico
Orca, you could broaden your vacation plans and choose a sandy white beach in Florida! We always welcome Canadians!
669. JLPR
why tomorrow =( cant 93L wait till Monday lol
Quoting 7544:
hey tampa i agree with you but how far n you see 93 going before the due west trend tia
The NHC says its moving west at near 10 kts. What happened to it moving north?
do you guys think that 93l will move west in the carib??
672. 7544
Quoting homelesswanderer:
The NHC says its moving west at near 10 kts. What happened to it moving north?


dont know but 93l may have some tricks to playout yet imo thnks
673. JLPR
Quoting homelesswanderer:
The NHC says its moving west at near 10 kts. What happened to it moving north?
Quoting homelesswanderer:
The NHC says its moving west at near 10 kts. What happened to it moving north?


The NHC says NW
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Orca, you could broaden your vacation plans and choose a sandy white beach in Florida! We always welcome Canadians!


Hmmmm Mexico, all inclusive.. all the food and booze you can eat/drink.. get treated like gold.. nice beaches.. fantastic people...

Florida... old fat retired canadians

Umm Mexico it is :)
This is the current model runs......Don't know if the ConUS will ever see Kyle....if he becomes a storm....


GFS GFSI GP01 GP02 GP03 GP04 GP05 GP06 GP07 GP08 GP09 GP10 GP11 GP12 GP13 GP14 GP15 GP16 GP17 GP18 GP19 GP20
GEMN GEMI BAMD BAMM BAMS HWRF HWFI HWF2 GFDL GFDI GFD2 GHMI GHM2 GFDT GFTI GFT2 NAM NAMI NGM NGPS NGPI NGP2 NGX NGXI NGX2 CMC CEMN SHF5 SHIP DSHP XTRP CLIP CLP5 LBAR MRFO ICON


Quoting 7544:


dont know but 93l may have some tricks to playout yet imo thnks
Sigh. I was so hoping it would go out into the Atlantic before it got too organized. Thanks.
677. JLPR
Quoting TampaSpin:
This is the current model runs......Don't know if the ConUS will ever see Kyle....if he becomes a storm....


GFS GFSI GP01 GP02 GP03 GP04 GP05 GP06 GP07 GP08 GP09 GP10 GP11 GP12 GP13 GP14 GP15 GP16 GP17 GP18 GP19 GP20
GEMN GEMI BAMD BAMM BAMS HWRF HWFI HWF2 GFDL GFDI GFD2 GHMI GHM2 GFDT GFTI GFT2 NAM NAMI NGM NGPS NGPI NGP2 NGX NGXI NGX2 CMC CEMN SHF5 SHIP DSHP XTRP CLIP CLP5 LBAR MRFO ICON




wow lol I cant see myself there lol the models cover me =P
did #678 size right?
Yep, that's what I hear... been lots of places, but never had the desire to go to any of the Mexico Resorts... Love Costa Rica!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmmm Mexico, all inclusive.. all the food and booze you can eat/drink.. get treated like gold.. nice beaches.. fantastic people...

Florida... old fat retired canadians

Umm Mexico it is :)
679
It sized fine and when I clicked on it, it enlarged so I can see it better...Thanks
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Yep, that's what I hear... been lots of places, but never had the desire to go to any of the Mexico Resorts... Love Costa Rica!


Have they got hit yet?
Enola, Billy~ Ya'll miss the link to the MJO Graph?
Quoting JLPR:


The NHC says NW
Ok, thanks. The one thing says nw. I didnt see that. in tropical weather discussion it said west. And I checked the models on Tampas blog (thanks Tampa) and they pointed north. Was confused.
is 93l moving west now???
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
679
It sized fine and when I clicked on it, it enlarged so I can see it better...Thanks


I always post them do you can click on them for full size
ok lets play that game again
is the NAM model reliable?
689. JLPR
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Ok, thanks. The one thing says nw. I didnt see that. in tropical weather discussion it said west. And I checked the models on Tampas blog (thanks Tampa) and they pointed north. Was confused.


finally a response lol I felt I was talking to myself since no one gave a response to anything I said =P

and no problem it happens
I checked the surface map and it says west =S now im confused =D
guess this hurricane
guess this hurricane
Link
Go to West Coast....

I think 1998 was a bad year for cyclones & tropical weather in CR
Quoting Orcasystems:


Have they got hit yet?
Erika 1997
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Go to West Coast....

I think 1998 was a bad year for cyclones & tropical weather in CR


I think she has her heart set on Cancun again.. Blue Bay Beach

I wanted to go to Cuba...

But I am open to suggestions
Alright bed time for me......everyone have a good evening or good early morning...lol.....nite.
Quoting jdjnola:


When a system is in such early stages the models are notoriously unreliable. There's no telling where a storm center could eventually form/reform (if it even does develop) and what the steering currents will be when/if it does form at whatever location. Even with a developed system the models can be initialized with bad data, but the data is usually even worse when a system is in the process of developing (or not).


Ahh, but I am merely curious about what data conditions the models are being influenced by. Whether they correspond to reality is somewhat useless when they do not at least agree with each other.

I am intrigued by the initial disagreement and sudden agreenment itself. That is, what threshhold of what data (i.e. what weather variable) was being ignored by all but the HRWF until today.

Villa Caleta

Beautiful....
remember who ever gets this correct will choose the next image
Quoting JLPR:


finally a response lol I felt I was talking to myself since no one gave a response to anything I said =P

and no problem it happens
I checked the surface map and it says west =S now im confused =D
Oh no. Didnt mean to confuse.LOL. Also, if I'm reading the steering maps correctly, It seems like the models are using the steering currents for a stronger storm. Or am I reading them wrong? Just wondering if maybe they expect it to be a stronger storm?? Thanks if anyone can help.
Where have I seen this before. This system is supposed to head out to sea. Oh wait it may make it a little further west, OH WAIT, .... LOL!!
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Erika 1997

you win...ok u choose the next hurricane u want
Quoting charlottefl:
Where have I seen this before. This system is supposed to head out to sea. Oh wait it may make it a little further west, OH WAIT, .... LOL!!
Bite your tongue! LOL.
Quoting billy305:
is the NAM model reliable?

629. TampaSpin

I completely understand how BAM models are far more reliable for the weaker, shallower systems.

My point was that all of the models, including BAM, but excluding the HRWF were trending WEST yesterday. Now that are all trending north. HRWF caught somethign yesterday.

I was just hoping someone would have some more specific knowledge of what the HRWF may have noticed yesterday.
You know how easy that was... click on your pic. and the yr & name of hurricane shows in the address....

Quoting btwntx08:

you win...ok u choose the next hurricane u want
Quoting billy305:
I'm not too sure but would love to know the answer also.Sorry.
anyone?
NAM Model
good?
bad?
709. JRRP
BNT20 KNHC 210541
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

guess this haha
*yawn*
-____-
nite
Quoting btwntx08:

guess this haha
0.o
ok
now its real
nite....
This guys's comment surprises me....
"To be honest, I have been comfortable these past nine days without noise, without stupid sirens," 61-year-old Leonid Elokhine said as he walked home from trying to find supplies to fix his flooded car.

After Opal the sounds of the Coast Guard & National Guard helicopters filled the air night and day... its still a sound that gives me the creeps.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ike evacuees jump gun, sneak back onto island
sorry about that here it is guess haha
Link
Quoting btwntx08:

guess this haha
I KNOW!!!!
hurricane beulah
Beulah
Quoting JRRP:
BNT20 KNHC 210541
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
Ok, good, now the NHC agrees with itself. Whew! A little less confusing. LOL. Lets hope this thing doesnt get stronger. I feel for the people in the caribbean. Theyve had enough. Maybe it will be sheared apart and miss Haiti/DR altogether.
Quoting billy305:
I KNOW!!!!
hurricane beulah

go to sleep u said that urself ugh!
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Beulah
i called it first
Quoting btwntx08:

go to sleep u said that urself ugh!
mean....
Homeless,

I am hoping for more shear too! Its been a tough season for the islands....

Ya'll have a good night.

TTYL
The hurricane forecasting tutorial is finished and posted....I will be updating it as I see fit..I have 2 separate sections now..A hurricane/weather 101 series and hurricane forecasting tutorial....Hope you enjoy it!.....Have a great night!=)
u said im going to sleep forreals and u still have not left
Quoting Beachfoxx:
This guys's comment surprises me....
"To be honest, I have been comfortable these past nine days without noise, without stupid sirens," 61-year-old Leonid Elokhine said as he walked home from trying to find supplies to fix his flooded car.

After Opal the sounds of the Coast Guard & National Guard helicopters filled the air night and day... its still a sound that gives me the creeps.
The helicopters are still flying over here. We hear planes and chainsaws during the day also. It is an eerie sound and so completely out of place. It makes you pause in your clean up effort and its an immediate reminder that some people were not as lucky as we this time.
ooops
Thanks! Will do my homework and study it! Have a good night. : )
Quoting quasigeostropic:
The hurricane forecasting tutorial is finished and posted....I will be updating it as I see fit..I have 2 separate sections now..A hurricane/weather 101 series and hurricane forecasting tutorial....Hope you enjoy it!.....Have a great night!=)
Homeless,

The sounds of those helicopters haunted us day and night for weeks... Being on the beach, I don't remember chainsaws so much.

Good luck to you... Ya'll are in my prayers.

Quoting homelesswanderer:
The helicopters are still flying over here. We hear planes and chainsaws during the day also. It is an eerie sound and so completely out of place. It makes you pause in your clean up effort and its an immediate reminder that some people were not as lucky as we this time.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Homeless,

The sounds of those helicopters haunted us day and night for weeks... Being on the beach, I don't remember chainsaws so much.

Good luck to you... Ya'll are in my prayers.

Thank you Beachfoxx.
ok quiz time:
what to cat 5 hurricanes formed and hit as a cat 5 (not including the conus)? guess the yr,and where did it hit as a cat 5(remember not including the conus)
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Homeless,

The sounds of those helicopters haunted us day and night for weeks... Being on the beach, I don't remember chainsaws so much.

Good luck to you... Ya'll are in my prayers.



Guess I've alway thought of the helicopters a little differently. I think of them as angels on a mission of mercy and know that when they are out there someone is getting help. (Except news choppers, think of them as vultures)

But then again, I've always loved choppers since I was a little kid.

Chainsaws on the other hand, in 2004 seems like I had one permanently attached to my arm for 2 months. Would rather forget chainsaws!

-rob
Sunrise~ HWRF is pretty unreliable at this point, it's a new model. A work in progress, not to be relied on. Here is some model tuturals
Link ~ this would be the quick version. I had another great one bookmarked but they charge now..

Billy~ the nam is pretty weak at forecasting 'canes. It's best function is forecasting day to day weather across the CONUS.

nite ya'll.

Quoting Skyepony:
Sunrise~ HWRF is pretty unreliable at this point, it's a new model. A work in progress, not to be relied on. Here is some model tuturals
Link ~ this would be the quick version. I had another great one bookmarked but they charge now..

Billy~ the nam is pretty weak at forecasting 'canes. It's best function is forecasting day to day weather across the CONUS.

nite ya'll.



Is it not interesting then that the HRWF plotted a course that now all of the other models are in agreement with, a full day later? For an unreliable model it was one step ahead of the others, is all I am saying. And wondering why :)
Eventuslly it is suppose to be the best model, better than the gfdl. I think for now it's under constant work where others are sceduled. We know when they are gonna tweek the gfs & the basics of that model are all worked out. Maybe they finally got something right with the HWRF.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Guess I've alway thought of the helicopters a little differently. I think of them as angels on a mission of mercy and know that when they are out there someone is getting help. (Except news choppers, think of them as vultures)

But then again, I've always loved choppers since I was a little kid.

Chainsaws on the other hand, in 2004 seems like I had one permanently attached to my arm for 2 months. Would rather forget chainsaws!

-rob
I hear ya about the chainsaws and I agree that the helicopters are there to help. Its just that it is such an alien sound around here. Hopefully their continued presence means that they are still in rescue mode. Its going to be a long road for some to rebuild. My husbands best friend lost all he had to the storm surge. But luckily he and his family evacuated. Bridge City ,which was mostly destroyed, has set a date for school reopening and said that they would send busses where need be to get their kids to stay in school there. People are trying their best to rebuild their communities.
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Is it not interesting then that the HRWF plotted a course that now all of the other models are in agreement with, a full day later? For an unreliable model it was one step ahead of the others, is all I am saying. And wondering why :)


I don't know that I'd call it an unreliable model, but I tend to wait for 3-4 of my favorites to come into agreement before I feel comfortable with them.

I can't speak to the differences in data input or how the data is weighted differently, but I really think the HRWF initialized the storm a little differently (further north?) and at a higher intensity. It seems to have leaned to more rapid intensification this year on most storms.

At this point in the game the models are kinda like us. "Throw a dart at the map, pick your favoite center and go from there."

On a positive note, it's nice to see niether the HRWF nor the ECMWF making this into a Hyper-cane for once.

-rob
Quoting btwntx08:
ok quiz time:
what to cat 5 hurricanes formed and hit as a cat 5 (not including the conus)? guess the yr,and where did it hit as a cat 5(remember not including the conus)


Dean and Felix in 2007 along the Central American Coast???
Quoting btwntx08:
guess this hurricane
Link


Isabel??
Quoting homelesswanderer:
I hear ya about the chainsaws and I agree that the helicopters are there to help. Its just that it is such an alien sound around here. Hopefully their continued presence means that they are still in rescue mode. Its going to be a long road for some to rebuild. My husbands best friend lost all he had to the storm surge. But luckily he and his family evacuated. Bridge City ,which was mostly destroyed, has set a date for school reopening and said that they would send busses where need be to get their kids to stay in school there. People are trying their best to rebuild their communities.


Glad to hear your friends are safe. Hope they will get the help they need. I've been hurt plenty by storms in the past but it's never been more than a lot of work and a lot of money. Nothing that I couldn't see a light at the end of the tunnel. I can't imagine how it would feel to see your whole community gone.

-rob
741. 7544
give up
Morning all.

Not much has changed, guess 93L's hand might be a little played out should the HH's go in.
743. Relix
It's hot here in PR. Haven't received a single drop of rain. I am going to sleep. I don't think 93L will become anything at this moment, probably just pass PR and then turn into a fish storm.
I think our ikle invest might be a tropical Depression in around 48 hours.
745. 7544
whoaaa 93l just got dressed big time after the blackout no doubt this will be a td today or even kyle the way it just expoded

Link
somethings cookin!!Link
Wow
93L just blew up
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its strength and continues to move towards Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8 (0900z 21Sept)
===========================================
At 5:00 PM PhT, Typhoon Nina (Hagupit) located near 17.5ºN 126.2ºE or 420 kms east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 km/h (65 kts) with gusts up to 150 km/h (80kts).

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Cagayan
2.Babuyan group of islands
3.Calayan group of islands
4.Isabela

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Catanduanes
2.Camarines Norte
3.Camarines Sur
4.Northern Quezon
5.Polillio island
6.Aurora
7.Quirino
8.Nueva Vizcaya
9.Nueva Ecija
10.Pangasinan
11.Ifugao
12.Mt. Province
13.Benguet
14.la Union
15.Ilocos Sur
16.Ilocos Norte
17.Kalinga
18.Abra
19.Apayao
20.Batanes
749. bcn
Oops, it is coming (link).
Do you thing we need to evacuate Seville or just have a longer "siesta"?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2008

DISCUSSION

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND FOR THAT REASON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW...MAINTAINING A WET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA. LATEST PROJECTIONS OF THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY.

ACCORDINGLY TO THE LATEST TWO ISSUED BY NHC...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
93L had a good night.
yes he did.. I was just looking at PR radar and there are some windfields that are moving in different directions.. the relative mean velocity loop is really hard to garner any info from because it is so cluttered, but there is some evidence of rotation, albiet slight. The convection blob to the south seems to be the CoC at the moment. But again, it's hard to tell. In the last still image, there are windspeeds of about 70 knts both directions.. prolly 35-40mph at the surface. Mostly, I feel sorry for the folks of Hispaniola..
753. IKE
Here's my forecast for inland Florida panhandle for the middle of next week...

Wednesday Night through Saturday
Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 70 near the coast.....59 to 64 inland. Highs 82 to 87.

70 days after today and the 2008 Atlantic tropical season is over.
754. IKE
Latest GFS sends 93L toward Bermuda and no where near the US of A>>>Link
Ike.. send some of that fall weather on down to me bro... I was fingering my flannels in the closet yesterday...
756. IKE
Quoting indianrivguy:
Ike.. send some of that fall weather on down to me bro... I was fingering my flannels in the closet yesterday...


LOL....wish I could send it down there too.

Usually by mid-October it's over for the tropical season here...usually.
Good morning,
68 degrees on Panama City Beach right now.
Good Morning Indianrivguy
93L is turning into a TS very fast. The improvement overnight is unreal,, in how the cloud bands came together and the whole system tightend up around a center. All this 8-10 hours.
and good mornoing to you too sir!
761. unf97
Good morning everyone! Well 93L has slowly organized during the past 24 hours and it looks as if the convection is beginning to form very near the developing COC just south of Puerto Rico. We will of course know more later as the hurricane hunters will fly out to 93L. IR satellite presentation of 93L looks rather decent early this morning. I think the system will develop into Kyle within the next 36 hours, or possibly sooner. The NW motion already has commenced and Puerto Rico and eventually the SE Bahamas will see the immediate effects of this system during the couple of days. This system hopefully will behave in not making landfall on the Continental U.S. East Coast this upcoming week. Most of the reliable models move it NW and eventually turn this system N. We will see if this trend continues with futuremodel runs. However, 93L/Kyle will help in creating a very strong pressure gradient along the U.S. East Coast as this week progresses. I'll be checking back in the see what the thoughts of Dr.M, StormW and some other notables have on the developing system. Have a great day everyone!

PR radar

Link
I'm not so afraid as what 93L will become, but if energy from 93L gets into the Nor'easter. That might equal a subtropical system that turns tropical.
welldone seafarer. I was trying to post a loop from there.. wouldn't work. If you look at the 1 hour rain rate loop, you can see the precip piling up on the SE coast of PR. There must be high ground there because the wind is losing all it's moisture right there.
well.. I have a bucket full of finger mullet waiting for a circle hook.. I'm off to the dock to see what Indian River has to offer this morning.

The good news as I see it, is that the storm appears to missing Hispaniola, and is offering the island the dry side of the storm. Those poor folks need a break.
766. Prgal
Good morning everyone.
Link

Dont know about every where else but I can
hit these little critters with buck shot
around here, must of lost atleast 2 quarts
yesterday afternoon. with all the flooding
caused by IKE bugs are in their element.
Plus it's been raining all day for the past
two days that hasnt helped with clean up
except to keep things alittle cooler.
Regards
Quoting popartpete:


Isabel??


Erika....

Look at the link:

http://www.meto.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/97/erika/eri124.n12.sep08_1036.gif
Quoting CybrTeddy:
93L had a good night.


Yeh... he looks like a hurricane without a cleared out eye.


Its got a circulation...
Link

Kinda looks like i seen this pic. before
773. Prgal
Back to bed for a while. I guess we have a long day ahead here in PR. Right now its very dark outside but no wind. "The calm before the storm."
Link

Link

What in the upper levels would be causing this?
775. Vero1
Good morning, the Tropical Weather brought to you by the NHC:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 211054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W THROUGH A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W TO CURACAO AND THEN INTO NERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-68W...INCLUDING THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. A
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 6N.
BROAD AREA OF
CLOUDINESS COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS AS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
25W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 11N-18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INDICATE INVERTED-V CURVATURE BETWEEN 13N-18N.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY...STABLE
AIR MASS ALOFT...THUS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH
MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OBSERVED ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WAVE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND CONTAINS
POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 55W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA W OF 82W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N15W 9N24W 9N28W 7N40W 6N57W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
26W...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 19W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO FROM
28N95W TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 20N97W DOMINATES THE
GULF EXTENDING NE FROM VERACRUZ TO OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IN AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN
84W-93W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 20N AND FROM
20N-24N W OF 95W...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS
INLAND SRN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SE US AND EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NRN GULF N OF 28N AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BUILDING IN SLOWLY ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT SOME
ORGANIZATION AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE WRN CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER SRN MEXICO EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W AND
IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF ERN
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N63W EXTENDING W TO 82W
AND E ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING PATCHES OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N74W TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH
ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM A 1015 MB LOW N OF THE REGION THROUGH
32N73W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN
72W-76W AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 79W-82W. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N47W AND
25N64W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N50W.
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING IS OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDING FROM A DEEP
LAYERED LOW N OF THE REGION TO 25N E OF 30W TO OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC TO 40W S OF THE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE
ATLC. OTHERWISE THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A STATIONARY 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR 34N46W AND
INFLUENCES THE ATLC N OF 24N FROM 20W-70W.

$$
HUFFMAN


776. Vero1
If 93L is moveing under a upper level ridge
dosnt a lower level ridge help steer smaller storms? are is this just not possiable?
Quoting Prgal:
Back to bed for a while. I guess we have a long day ahead here in PR. Right now its very dark outside but no wind. "The calm before the storm."
i live in Juncos P.R i have to tell that i never have seen a movement of the clouds so slow, look like the clouds are on pause, is amazing.
778. farhaonhebrew 7:39 AM EDT on September 21, 2008

It looks like a Fay type event for you all, slow system that dumps alot of rain. Hopefully NO intensification!

Stay safe and dry!
Link

Something brewing in the BOC this morning?
looks nasty down their, no spin as of yet.
Should be a TD soon..
782. Vero1
Quoting blsealevel:
Link

Something brewing in the BOC this morning?
looks nasty down their, no spin as of yet.
It was discussed in Post # 775 above
783. Vero1


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
NNNN
RED Alert now with 93L, NHC says it could become a TD later today. Here comes Kyle!
778. I live in San Juan and you are correct. There are tons of clouds, but nothing is moving. We are in for a lot of rain today. Stay off the roads.
well first before it becomes a td it has to
get more convection the left side I think, while
the LLC is under heavy convection most of the convection is still on the east side because of shear.
Quoting Vero1:
It was discussed in Post # 775 above


See that now, sorry
789. KRL
790. KRL
Quoting blsealevel:
Link

Something brewing in the BOC this morning?
looks nasty down their, no spin as of yet.


StormW mentioned possible situational development in the GOMEX near this period. MJO is favorable, so it is dafinately a possibility for something to happen there in the near future. Just have to wait and see.
792. Vero1
Quoting InTheCone:


StormW mentioned possible situational development in the GOMEX near this period. MJO is favorable, so it is dafinately a possibility for something to happen there in the near future. Just have to wait and see.
Based on yesterdays surface maps it show that a low will form there on Fri Sept 26

Quoting InTheCone:
778. farhaonhebrew 7:39 AM EDT on September 21, 2008

It looks like a Fay type event for you all, slow system that dumps alot of rain. Hopefully NO intensification!

Stay safe and dry!
thanks!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SAT...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DESTABILIZE AND MOISTEN AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE U.S.
POSSIBLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT A FACTOR AND WEATHER BEGINS TO TREND
FROM W TO E IN A REVERSAL OF THE NORMAL S FLA LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL
PATTERN. THE A LARGE TROUGH OVER E U.S. THE GLOB OF WEATHER S OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD PULL NORTHWARD AND REMAIN WELL E
OF S FLA. THE UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE NC
COAST WHICH MAY PULL A FRONT?...AT LEAST POSSIBLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR OVER S FLA NEXT WEEKEND. ONE CAN HOPE.



Maybe a cool down for South Florida next weekend.
Thanks for the map Vero, very interesting! Could you post a link to that site? tia
Am reposting yet again....wanna make sure this gets seen...it's accurate as of yesterday PM....

Total revenue since Monday AM: $13475.00

Expenitures: $10400.00 - this includes vehilcles, supplies, FUEL, insurance, freight...and some VERY LIMTED creature comforts for crew... I'm eating the phone charges....

Activity: Jacksonville/Atlanta crews arrive today...Charleston crews arrive tomorrow.....NOLA crew arrives Thursday...another Charleston crew will leave Thursday or Friday....plus several shipments being sent through commercial freight carriers as logistics dictated...

photos at stormjunkie's Wunderblog....

y'all rock....

www.portlight.org

Good morning

The quickscat pass this morning shows that 93L does not have a closed low. In fact, there is hardly even a wind shift at the surface.

It may look impressive from a convection standpoint but it still has a long way to go to become a TD.

Link
798. KRL
Whoa. Hello ......

799. Vero1
Quoting InTheCone:
Thanks for the map Vero, very interesting! Could you post a link to that site? tia
Here you go:
http://www.weather.gov/outlook_tab.php
Look at the wind direction and pressure readings at this buoy which is about 120 nautical miles due S of the current " center " of 93L.

South winds and rising pressure. 1012 mb is not impressive at all.

Whatever rotation we are seeing with 93L is all in the mid levels. Nothing at the surface other than a broad area of weak low pressure

Link
Quoting kmanislander:
Look at the wind direction and pressure readings at this buoy which is about 120 nautical miles due S of the current " center " of 93L.

South winds and rising pressure. 1012 mb is not impressive at all.

Whatever rotation we are seeing with 93L is all in the mid levels. Nothing at the surface other than a broad area of weak low pressure

Link


Well the minimum pressure is estimated to be 1008mb...i don't expect impressive pressure readings from a buoy 120 NM from a tropical disturbance.
today ten years from george, maby the next septemper 1 year from Kyle... 1
Quoting extreme236:


Well the minimum pressure is estimated to be 1008mb...i don't expect impressive pressure readings from a buoy 120 NM from a tropical disturbance.


Well I would expect the pressure to be generally lower in that area than it is and certainly not rising. Its not like 93L is moving away at any great clip and if there was a defined surface low that buoy would have a WNW wind, not a S wind. Quickscat shows an open wave
Quoting kmanislander:


Well I would expect the pressure to be generally lower in that area than it is and certainly not rising. Its not like 93L is moving away at any great clip and if there was a defined surface low that buoy would have a WNW wind, not a S wind. Quickscat shows an open wave


Yes I see it is an open wave. We'll see what recon finds when they go in later today.
Quick peek b/4 polo barn work this AM - went to bed hoping 93L would get snuffed out -- no such luck-- got surf withdrawal going on now -- but I'm not wishcasting this potential Kyle seedling to grow-up.

I figure to donate www.portlight.org whenever I get Hurricane swell - kinda relieves the guilt of surfing waves that cause trouble for others -- if this season doesn't end soon, I may end up as a major sponsor.

Good Day All - back in the afternoon
This tw eventually could be a five star surf storm for the east coast of fl. Due to Fay "cocoa beachs beaches" lost a bunch of sand bars and is barely rideable at high tide. Not sure about Playalinda or beaches north.
Unless something else develops with it today recon may be cancelled IMO.
808. Prgal
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
i live in Juncos P.R i have to tell that i never have seen a movement of the clouds so slow, look like the clouds are on pause, is amazing.

Be safe in Juncos. Apparently you are in for a ride at this hour. I just heard about the flash flood warning for the east. Hang in there!

Its still very cloudy outside. No rain yet and its so calm that its actually alarming.
my bride just called....she and sj are at code's house in Crestview FL...they are headed out to meet the FL DART escort and roll into TX today.....bout 7 hrs 'til arrival.....
Back later
Quoting kmanislander:
Unless something else develops with it today recon may be cancelled IMO.


Doubt that, they went in with Dolly and Fay now didn't they?
Looking like a ball doubt if they are going to cancel recon. Plus the strong tw is close to a landfall.
Quoting kmanislander:
Unless something else develops with it today recon may be cancelled IMO.


Why would they cancel recon for this? Just because QS doesn't show a closed low doesn't mean it may not have one later, it didn't show Dolly as a closed low either. Considering that this system is fairly well-organized as well.
814. Prgal
I am looking at PR's radar. Strong rain bands approaching my area. Should be here within the hour.
815. IKE
Quoting presslord:
my bride just called....she and sj are at code's house in Crestview FL...they are headed out to meet the FL DART escort and roll into TX today.....bout 7 hrs 'til arrival.....


Hey....that's about 25 miles west of me....they should have stopped by for some Sunday morning coffee....at juniors farm
Press
Be sure to give your lovely Bride and the lovely SJ our best.
Also safe travels to Fla and NOLA crews.
Y'all rock
IKE...maybe y'all can connect on the return trip.....
The 00 GFDL showed another low forming off North Carlonia and regressing backs towards NE Floirda...anybody have the link the 06Z run???
Btw Death Toll from Ike's up to 65.
820. eddye
people go on the chat room
Quoting eddye:
people go on the chat room


Hmm, which one now?
822. eddye
cyberteddy anyone
823. Mikla
Latest average plot of all model data. Since last night the plot has shifted right, the models look like they are starting to converge and the winds are up.
Models all develop 93L north of Puerto Rico and either head out to sea or go NW towards the US coastline. The CMC looks the most alarming for a New England landfall.
825. Vero1
(3L does not seem to move very fast:
24Hr Surface


72Hr Surface

826. Vero1
Quoting dean2007:
Models all develop 93L north of Puerto Rico and either head out to sea or go NW towards the US coastline. The CMC looks the most alarming for a New England landfall.
I would be more alarmed about the North Carolina Low than 93L since 93L is forcast to still be in the Bahamas on Friday Sept 26.
827. P451
Interesting scenario shaping up for the east coast.

Check the low that forms off the SE coast and seeks to absorb "kyle" while moving northward towards the mid atlantic.



Day 5 Fronts

Day 6 Fronts

Day 7 Fronts
Quoting P451:
Interesting scenario shaping up for the east coast.

Check the low that forms off the SE coast and seeks to absorb "kyle" while moving northward towards the mid atlantic.



Day 5 Fronts

Day 6 Fronts

Day 7 Fronts


Interesting. I guess the strength and timing of these two systems is key.
829. Vero1
Quoting P451:
Interesting scenario shaping up for the east coast.

Check the low that forms off the SE coast and seeks to absorb "kyle" while moving northward towards the mid atlantic.



Day 5 Fronts

Day 6 Fronts

Day 7 Fronts
It will be interesting when they plot them based on Todays 1800Z Run.
Quoting presslord:
my bride just called....she and sj are at code's house in Crestview FL...they are headed out to meet the FL DART escort and roll into TX today.....bout 7 hrs 'til arrival.....

Good Luck to all!
Key will be the position of the high and the strength of the lows.
just saw the Houston TV coverage....frankly, they got some of the facts kinda screwed up...but the images and result are what matter....
833. Vero1
Quoting dean2007:
Key will be the position of the high and the strength of the lows.
The is what Weather is all about!
looks like the NE is about to get a noreaster. Pressure gradients between the high and low should funnel some fresh breezes into them here directly.
Morning everyone
Quoting indianrivguy:
looks like the NE is about to get a noreaster. Pressure gradients between the high and low should funnel some fresh breezes into them here directly.


Its actually starting to look like a repeat of the 1991 nor'easter, that spawned a Hurricane. 93L might combine with the Nor'easter.
Say hello to TD 11? folks
832. presslord 8:22 AM CDT on September 21, 2008.. was that the channel 2 video?


I think we should say hello to Hurricane Kyle...

Nearly closed eyewall LOL
I understand....as the result of numerous phone calls and e-mails....that some of you are upset about the Houston TV piece which covered the arrival of the "special needs" equipment....

Let me be clear on two points:

1.) They messed it up pretty badly...gave credit to the wrong folks....but that is out of our control...this is a grassroots effort with no mechanism for media message management...so...this is what happens....and it's OK...,.what matters is what we're doing...

2.) ANYBODY who tries to pick a fight over this....either with the TV station or with other bloggers....will be out on that limb all by themselves....with ZERO support from me...this is not about who gets the credit....
tkeith.....yup....
look like finally the low has reached the surface...south of Ponce is evient a clear spining.
Quoting Prgal:

Be safe in Juncos. Apparently you are in for a ride at this hour. I just heard about the flash flood warning for the east. Hang in there!

Its still very cloudy outside. No rain yet and its so calm that its actually alarming.
look like finally the low has reached the surface...south of Ponce there is an evient a clear rotation.Link
Your WunderMap™ is great, but could you add the option of viewing the LAT/LON lines, specially under the Map and Terrain views?
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I think we should say hello to Hurricane Kyle...

Nearly closed eyewall LOL



Now that would be a big eye if it were to clear out.
You can allways get more done as a group when it doesn't matter who gets the credit...if your in it for the glory you in it for the wrong reason...JMO...I'm with ya 100% Presslord...
Quoting dean2007:



Now that would be a big eye if it were to clear out.


lol.... If it was to stay like that over america... you could walk with it!
Quoting Amadorio:
Your WunderMap™ is great, but could you add the option of viewing the LAT/LON lines, specially under the Map and Terrain views?


Who is this remark addressed to?
Yes! today is the 10 year anniversary of my one and only Hurricane experience- Georges. And what a scary day it was...
Well organized and appears to have a CDO


Quoting extreme236:
Well organized and appears to have a CDO




NO CHANCE.....

If you loook on the visible it looks like a mid/low level lot of clouds and a high level eye.
Goodness...looking at 93L....ouch.

We don't have any bloggers here named Kyle, do we? Sure hope not!
853. Vero1
The 850 mb vorticity is primarily N of PR

93L is poorly organized IMO and an open wave

Link
Quoting presslord:
just saw the Houston TV coverage....frankly, they got some of the facts kinda screwed up...but the images and result are what matter....


TV news coverage getting the facts wrong? What is this world coming to...LOL
856. unf97
836. The scenario seems rather probable. There will be interaction during this week as the developing low of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and whatever evolves from 93L/Kyle moving N away from Puerto Rico. Combine these features interacting with strong High Pressure off the coast of NE U.S./New England and a very strong pressure gradient will impact the East Coast this week. It will be intersting to see the future model runs regarding this week's weather concerning these features

857. Vero1
WXTLIST WMO=NOUS42 MATCH=KNHC TCPOD
NOUS42 KNHC 201600 2008264 1610
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 AM EDT SAT 20 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-112
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 21/1400Z
D. 17.0N 67.0W
E. 21/1700Z TO 22/0000Z
F. SFC - 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY
BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT 22/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Quoting kmanislander:
The 850 mb vorticity is primarily N of PR

93L is poorly organized IMO and an open wave

Link


I wouldn't buy into that QS pass too much...it showed no wind shift at all and sfc obs CLEARLY show one.
Quoting extreme236:


I wouldn't buy into that QS pass too much...it showed no wind shift at all and sfc obs CLEARLY show one.


You mean QS should be ignored sometimes but accepted at others ?. If you look at the pass there is a wind shift from S to E but that is all. That is why 93L was an open wave at the time of the pass.

I am not saying it may not develop a closed low later today, or tomorrow, or perhpas not at all. Just that right now it appears to be nothing more than a lot of convection and a mid level vorticity that is well removed from where the so called surface center is supposed to be.

Dolly had a well defined circulation on sat. and TS force winds but no closed low. Strong convection alone does not make this organized.
Good morning, everyone!

I'm in St. Thomas just checking in. It's rainy here and the surf is up. I'm hoping this doesn't ramp up on our heads. We're already under a flash flood warning.
Quoting presslord:
I understand....as the result of numerous phone calls and e-mails....that some of you are upset about the Houston TV piece which covered the arrival of the "special needs" equipment....

Let me be clear on two points:

1.) They messed it up pretty badly...gave credit to the wrong folks....but that is out of our control...this is a grassroots effort with no mechanism for media message management...so...this is what happens....and it's OK...,.what matters is what we're doing...

2.) ANYBODY who tries to pick a fight over this....either with the TV station or with other bloggers....will be out on that limb all by themselves....with ZERO support from me...this is not about who gets the credit....


I agree, presslord! We know you guys did an magnificent job pulling this all together. All the bloggers that donated, I am sure, did it from the heart and do not need to be recognized.
Quoting kmanislander:


You mean QS should be ignored sometimes but accepted at others ?. If you look at the pass there is a wind shift from S to W but that is all. That is why 93L was an open wave at the time of the pass.

I am not saying it may not develop a closed low later today, or tomorrow, or perhpas not at all. Just that right now it appears to be nothing more than a lot of convection and a mid level vorticity that is well removed from where the so called surface center is supposed to be.

Dolly had a well defined circulation on sat. and TS force winds but no closed low. Strong convection alone does not make this organized.


You make some good points, but until recon goes in we really don't know what there is at the surface. The vorticity at 5000 ft (850mb) does suggest a poorly organized vertical structure, while satellite images show a well organized storm.
862. extreme236 2:04 PM GMT on September 21, 2008

I corrected the wind shift as being from S to E, not W.
But in terms of QS, it is a snapshot of things at the time it was taken. I have no doubt it was right at the time it was taken, but sfc obs suggest more wind shift at this time than at the time it was taken, possibly suggesting that something may be starting at the surface.
The 00-Z runs on potential-Kyle are interesting. Most give a run up the US east coast. The CMC has a tightly packed (I'm guessing cold-core) wacking Del-NY somewhere around Hr-168+ GFDL is in loose agreement after Hr-126 NOGAPS has a hit at around NC/SC border at around Hr-132. FSU-Merge has it poised to smack the mid-atlantic hard above VA somewhere after Hr-108. A couple of the models have it interacting with the Carolina low, dancing as a pair, with an Ocean high pushing them into the Eastern Seaboard. This could be a real interesting storm - hopefully Cantore won't be blowing across your front yard.
Quoting extreme236:
But in terms of QS, it is a snapshot of things at the time it was taken. I have no doubt it was right at the time it was taken, but sfc obs suggest more wind shift at this time than at the time it was taken, possibly suggesting that something may be starting at the surface.


I do agree that QS is just a snap shot in time. A closed low can develop within a matter of a few hrs after a pass.

However, based on what I am seeing with it vertically and the rapidly rising pressure at the buoy at 15N to its S the environment around it is not suggestive of a system that is developing as a TD. Still no WNW or NW winds at that buoy.
Just wanted to stop in and offer my thoughts on Invest 93L this morning.

Based upon the latest satellite imagery, the disturbance has shown a rapid increase in convection that has both deepened and expanded over the system. This indicates that wind shear is no longer disrupting the system's development.

But, despite this, the system remains poorly organized as there is nowhere near a closed circulation in the lower-levels that would be indicative of tropical development. In watching satellite loops, it seems like there is indeed a mid-level circulation, but for some reason, like with Dolly in its developmental stages, has struggled translating that down to the surface.

For right now, I doubt we will see Tropical Depression 11 today unless it can translate that mid-level circulation to the lower-levels. I will be interested in analyzing the Hurricane Hunter data that does come in this afternoon, if they do not cancel the mission, which remains a remote possibility right now.
models are hinting at the system affecting New England...high-prob on TWO.
PR radar definitely has some interesting motion to it this morning though.

Link
1013 mb now at the buoy at 15N 67.5W

If 93L has a pressure of 1008 as estimated that would be a 5 mb difference over 120 nautical miles and pressure still rising at the buoy
Also wanted to add one more thought into the discussion.

I have taken a look at the latest computer models this morning and have noticed that there is some consensus that this will continue heading northward into the open Atlantic Ocean. Well, just remember that model consensus does not guarantee that the scenario portrayed by them will happen. As we witnessed with Ike, the model consensus could turn out to be very wrong. So, just because the models are currently indicating that Invest 93L will head northward into the open Atlantic and then run up or near the US East Coast, do not take them to be the endgame.
Good morning, since seeing the current models for 93l, is the thinking that it will go north? How confident are these model runs? TIA!
Quoting kmanislander:
1013 mb now at the buoy at 15N 67.5W

If 93L has a pressure of 1008 as estimated that would be a 5 mb difference over 120 nautical miles and pressure still rising at the buoy


The only two ways I could explain the rise is that the system is slowly moving away (north-northwest) from the buoy and it is in an area that is nearly devoid of convection.
Steering for a relatively shallow system shows a bend to the left just N of PR and Hispaniola.

Link
Per the latest Visible satellite loop, there is some impressive outflow developing over the system, further indicating that wind shear is no longer impacting the system.

Also, in watching that satellite loop, I'm struggling to distinguish any circulation with the system at all. Must agree with Kman, this seems more like an open tropical wave than a developing tropical depression.
impressive....
Quoting kmanislander:
Steering for a relatively shallow system shows a bend to the left just N of PR and Hispaniola.

Link


That was suggested in the NHC surface forecast showing a bit more westerly track after moving over PR.
potential-Kyle impacts are over 100+model hours away - take them for what they are worth - as aways.
You have to love Model consensus


Click to expand
I am out for now but will check back later to see how 93L has fared.

BFN
881. KRL
Quoting presslord:
I understand....as the result of numerous phone calls and e-mails....that some of you are upset about the Houston TV piece which covered the arrival of the "special needs" equipment....

Let me be clear on two points:

1.) They messed it up pretty badly...gave credit to the wrong folks....but that is out of our control...this is a grassroots effort with no mechanism for media message management...so...this is what happens....and it's OK...,.what matters is what we're doing...

2.) ANYBODY who tries to pick a fight over this....either with the TV station or with other bloggers....will be out on that limb all by themselves....with ZERO support from me...this is not about who gets the credit....


Local news media is always just looking for a quick story. They rarely have time, the staff or the budget to research all the facts to get stories straight.

I wouldn't worry about it. The piece just made it look like it was the Red Cross not your crew.
Who cares about who gets the credit as long as the people in need got the supplies.
Can't help but to love the personality forecasters put into their forecast discussions at both the NWS and NHC. In this case, I love this statement from the NWS in Miami regarding a possible cold front coming in next week, which I have been forecasting for the last week.

EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SAT...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DESTABILIZE AND MOISTEN AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE U.S.
POSSIBLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT A FACTOR AND WEATHER BEGINS TO TREND
FROM W TO E IN A REVERSAL OF THE NORMAL S FLA LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL
PATTERN. THE A LARGE TROUGH OVER E U.S. THE GLOB OF WEATHER S OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD PULL NORTHWARD AND REMAIN WELL E
OF S FLA. THE UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE NC
COAST WHICH MAY PULL A FRONT?...AT LEAST POSSIBLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR OVER S FLA NEXT WEEKEND. ONE CAN HOPE.
Thanks Orca!
884. Vero1
Quoting kmanislander:
1013 mb now at the buoy at 15N 67.5W

If 93L has a pressure of 1008 as estimated that would be a 5 mb difference over 120 nautical miles and pressure still rising at the buoy

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W THROUGH A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W
KRL.....amen.....
Quoting Vero1:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W THROUGH A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W


The models were ran at 1008mb at the same time frame lol...gotta love the uncertainty and inconsistency.
Tropical Cyclone Warning #21 (1200z 21SEPT)
======================================

SUBJECT: CATEGORY THREE TYPHOON IN SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 21:00 PM JST, Typhoon Hagupit (970 hPa) located near 18.1N 125.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts up to 95 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==============
260 NM southeast from the center
200 NM northwest from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.1N 121.4E - 85 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 21.4N 116.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 22.3N 110.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

000
WONT41 KNHC 211432
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



889. redUK
Hagupit looks like being Hong Kong's IKE..

Could well be a large cat 3 is 48 hours..

90f SSTs all the way.



Quoting presslord:
...,.what matters is what we're doing...


precisely
looks like 93L is trying to develop a circulation center just south of ponce, puerto rico look at the radar long range , we may have a depression tomorrow but seems unlikely today
Quoting KendallHurricane:
looks like 93L is trying to develop a circulation center just south of ponce, puerto rico look at the radar long range , we may have a depression tomorrow but seems unlikely today


Based on the disturbance statement issued, it may not be unlikely.
i take it back NHC put out a statement we may have one today after all
anyone have a take on the possible track/ projected path
Quoting KendallHurricane:
i take it back NHC put out a statement we may have one today after all
anyone have a take on the possible track/ projected path


north and away! Hopefully this one is for the fish..
895. redUK
Quoting redUK:
Hagupit looks like being Hong Kong's IKE..

Could well be a large cat 3 is 48 hours..

90f SSTs all the way.





Meant to say "in 48 hours"

and the SSTs are currently 85, rising to 90 near Hong Kong.

Quoting FSUstormnut:


north and away! Hopefully this one is for the fish..


Yes, Fish
897. unf97
871. Good points stated in your post cchsweatherman. The model runs later on will be interesting in reagrds to the evolution of 93L/potentially Kyle.
898. Vero1
Quoting KendallHurricane:
i take it back NHC put out a statement we may have one today after all
anyone have a take on the possible track/ projected path

72 hour Surface:

the gfdl has 93l going north then curving towards new york with 105 knot winds...Link
Is recon in the air?
Quoting voortex:

the gfdl has 93l going north then curving towards new york with 105 knot winds...Link

It looks like it was trying to curve on around toward NC/Va
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Is recon in the air?


not from what I can tell
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Per the latest Visible satellite loop, there is some impressive outflow developing over the system, further indicating that wind shear is no longer impacting the system.

Also, in watching that satellite loop, I'm struggling to distinguish any circulation with the system at all. Must agree with Kman, this seems more like an open tropical wave than a developing tropical depression.

000
WONT41 KNHC 211432
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

904. Vero1
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Is recon in the air?
Not on Google Earth.

WXTLIST WMO=NOUS42 MATCH=KNHC TCPOD
NOUS42 KNHC 201600 2008264 1610
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 AM EDT SAT 20 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-112
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 21/1400Z
D. 17.0N 67.0W
E. 21/1700Z TO 22/0000Z
F. SFC - 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY
BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT 22/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Quoting Vero1:
Not on Google Earth.

WXTLIST WMO=NOUS42 MATCH=KNHC TCPOD
NOUS42 KNHC 201600 2008264 1610
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 AM EDT SAT 20 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-112
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 21/1400Z
D. 17.0N 67.0W
E. 21/1700Z TO 22/0000Z
F. SFC - 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY
BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT 22/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.



Alright thanks...Thats what I thought.
How in the world is it going to be a fish? if it develops today it still has to go across PR. That means it's not a fish.
Still looks rather disorganized to me as the present surface/mid level circulation is removed from the thunderstorm activity.As far as track is concerned a trajectory to the NNW-NW seems pretty reasonable at this time.

93 12z Models
895. redUK 2:38 PM GMT on September 21, 2008

We'll see what recon says in the next few days of how strong Hagupit gets but it has a group of islands north of the Philippines to pass over first before heading into the South China Sea.
Quoting Vero1:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W THROUGH A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W


Estimate was on the Navy site this morning as 1008
Quoting hurricane23:
Still looks rather disorganized to me as the present surface/mid level circulation is removed from the thunderstorm activity.As far as track is concerned a trajectory to the NNW-NW seems pretty reasonable at this time.

93 12z Models

The link says I'm forbidden.
Quoting hurricane23:
Still looks rather disorganized to me as the present surface/mid level circulation is removed from the thunderstorm activity.As far as track is concerned a trajectory to the NNW-NW seems pretty reasonable at this time.

93 12z Models


Removed from the thunderstorm activity? Thats not what the NHC coordinates suggest.
For those who missed it:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.
915. eddye
everyone this looks like a hurricane
Quoting voortex:

the gfdl has 93l going north then curving towards new york with 105 knot winds...Link


1600Z
Quoting HurricaneKing:

The link says I'm forbidden.


Sorry about that here you go.

OK, let's play this game again. Predict where 93L will hit:

A. Southeast (FL-NC)
B. Mid-Atlantic (VA-NJ)
C. Northeast (NY-ME)
D. Canada
E. Out to sea
F. Other (it will dissipate, go in the GOM, etc.)
Quoting hurricane23:
Still looks rather disorganized to me as the present surface/mid level circulation is removed from the thunderstorm activity.As far as track is concerned a trajectory to the NNW-NW seems pretty reasonable at this time.

93 12z Models


I dont see what your seeing...
Quoting HurricaneKing:

It looks like it was trying to curve on around toward NC/Va


the hwrf shows basically the same track and intensity...Link
000
WONT41 KNHC 211432
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Thats helpful

Quoting HurricaneKing:

The link says I'm forbidden.


here Link

i think that is what he might have been trying to post...its all the (good-semidecent) models
923. eddye
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that my answer
Can we please stop posting the Tropical Disturbance Statement...
Quoting philliesrock:
OK, let's play this game again. Predict where 93L will hit:

A. Southeast (FL-NC)
B. Mid-Atlantic (VA-NJ)
C. Northeast (NY-ME)
D. Canada
E. Out to sea
F. Other (it will dissipate, go in the GOM, etc.)



Where is Puerto Rico?
Quoting sporteguy03:



Where is Puerto Rico?


Agreed but at this time that seems a given
Quoting voortex:

the gfdl has 93l going north then curving towards new york with 105 knot winds...Link


cool...can this model tell me next weekends lottery numbers too?
Quoting cchsweatherman:


One thing that comes to mind, with respect to track, is that most storms in this location have tracked much further south and west this year. Not saying that 93L will but, it is in the back of my mind.

Also, in reference to your map. I found that orange text shows up rather well.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Can we please stop posting the Tropical Disturbance Statement...


Sorry... i couldn't get the coding to work for the bolding of bits.
Here's an idea, a limit of 5 times that the Tropical Disturbance Statement or an Advisory can be posted here.

What's happening with the Tropical Wave by Africa? We were hearing so much about it, and now it has fallen of the radar.
Quoting presslord:
I understand....as the result of numerous phone calls and e-mails....that some of you are upset about the Houston TV piece which covered the arrival of the "special needs" equipment....

Let me be clear on two points:

1.) They messed it up pretty badly...gave credit to the wrong folks....but that is out of our control...this is a grassroots effort with no mechanism for media message management...so...this is what happens....and it's OK...,.what matters is what we're doing...

2.) ANYBODY who tries to pick a fight over this....either with the TV station or with other bloggers....will be out on that limb all by themselves....with ZERO support from me...this is not about who gets the credit....

When I saw the story, I thought the same thing too..that I'll bet some people are going to get their panties in a wad about not getting their due recognition. Those same people need to ask themselves if they donated to get recognized or help. Crimeny...they're getting all the thanks they should need here. Why do they need a reporter's thanks? *smacks forehead*
Good morning everyone...I have not been on much but I will try to be here a little more often now that we have a depression forming.

I will be back in a little bit..Have to reply to some emails.
933. redUK
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
895. redUK 2:38 PM GMT on September 21, 2008

We'll see what recon says in the next few days of how strong Hagupit gets but it has a group of islands north of the Philippines to pass over first before heading into the South China Sea.


What models would be used in this area?

If they are as accurate at 48 hours as the GFDL, then Hong Kong would be in the NE quad of a large 120mph Cyclone..

I have some family in the New Territories - I'll make sure they are aware of this..
934. Relix
I really hate living in the north coast of PR.... not a drop of rain has fallen here. It's cloudy. Place your bets... will 93L become a TD before hitting PR? I out 10 on no!
Quoting sporteguy03:



Where is Puerto Rico?

It's certain to hit Puerto Rico.
looks like this system continues to get better organized , this has been the year that tropical waves and areas of low pressure start getting organized , then on radar and satelite look like tropical storms/hurricanes and have an impressive mid level circulation and don't have closed low level circulation , why has this been happening this year ????????
Stopped for a coffee break in Tallahassee.
Still westbound on I-10
Have air-card will travel ;>)
Quoting KendallHurricane:
looks like this system continues to get better organized , this has been the year that tropical waves and areas of low pressure start getting organized , then on radar and satelite look like tropical storms/hurricanes and have an impressive mid level circulation and don't have closed low level circulation , why has this been happening this year ????????


Overall, this system has been a fairly quick organizer when you think of it. It was just mentioned in the TWO on Friday.
nothing t
Quoting HrDelta:
Here's an idea, a limit of 5 times that the Tropical Disturbance Statement or an Advisory can be posted here.

What's happening with the Tropical Wave by Africa? We were hearing so much about it, and now it has fallen of the radar.


There isn't anything to talk about...
941. Relix
Finally! Bits of rain are falling XD
Quoting theshepherd:
Stopped for a coffee break in Tallahassee.
Still westbound on I-10
Have air-card will travel ;>)


Let us know where you end up.
941. Relix

None here in Miramar although the sky has been black all day.
Quoting Greyelf:

When I saw the story, I thought the same thing too..that I'll bet some people are going to get their panties in a wad about not getting their due recognition. Those same people need to ask themselves if they donated to get recognized or help. Crimeny...they're getting all the thanks they should need here. Why do they need a reporter's thanks? *smacks forehead*



Unless you have someone assigned to write and release press releases stuff like this will happen. Big deal. It's the big picture that counts, not the credits.
Well, in St. Thomas it's light rain and winds gusting in the neighborhood of 35kts or so on the south side.

The weather has been steadily getting crappier all morning.
10-4
I'll see how far a 40 gal tank takes me from Lkae City.
Then I'll unload canned goods to hungry looking people.
Grand daughter sent me my new avatar. Told me to stop bragging about that stupid fish. ;>)
Gotta go.....
Quoting Relix:
I really hate living in the north coast of PR.... not a drop of rain has fallen here. It's cloudy. Place your bets... will 93L become a TD before hitting PR? I out 10 on no!
i live in Juncos is rainy here, but i expect a lot more...dont worry, the rain will come and when it finally fall will take to long to stop. I think is already a TD... so the recon maby find a moderate TS. If u see the radar, just south to Ponce, i think there is the surface low drifting south.

arecebo may turn into a lake with this one- egh?
IT'S BEEN 10 YEARS THAT WE HAVE HURRICANES GEORGES IN THE CARIBBEAN SO PEOPLE WHO LIVED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES,VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO CAUSING BILLIONS DOLLARS IN DAMAGES. EVEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM FORM BETWEEN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO THAT WILL BE QUICKLY FORGOTTEN,THERE IS NOTHING COMPARE TO WHAT IT WAS THAT TIME, A MAJOR HURRICANE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


One thing that comes to mind, with respect to track, is that most storms in this location have tracked much further south and west this year. Not saying that 93L will but, it is in the back of my mind.

Also, in reference to your map. I found that orange text shows up rather well.


I wanted to add that I had a very hard time reading the red. Don't know if it was just me or my computer. Just an FYI
Hurricane Hunters passing over Andros Island right now. Will be interesting to see what they find in the system.
Anyone know what time the recon is set to fly into 93I?
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hurricane Hunters passing over Andros Island right now. Will be interesting to see what they find in the system.


Ha, you just answered my question!
955. Vero1
;
956. Prgal
NEW BLOG
...evening everyone