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Caribbean disturbance 93L no threat; remembering the Edmund Fitzgerald storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:31 PM GMT on November 10, 2010

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands is drifting northwards. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some surrounding dry air. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, but 93L is headed into a region of very high wind shear, and does not have time to develop. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing by Friday.

The GFS and NOGAPS models predict a strong tropical disturbance will form in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia 6 - 7 days from now, and move west-northwest towards Nicaragua.


Figure 1. Rainfall totals for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from Invest 93L.

35th anniversary of the "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm
Thirty five years ago today, on November 10, 1975, one of the strongest storms in Great Lakes history sank the ore carrier Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior, with the loss of all 29 men aboard. Our Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt has a look back at this date in weather history, which also features four other remarkable record-setting storms: the 1911 Great Cold Front, the 1913 "White Hurricane", the 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard, and the 1998 Super Cyclone.


Figure 2. The S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald in calmer waters. Photo from NOAA.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

35th anniversary of the "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm.....


Gordon Lightfoot style...

Have a nice day doc!
Sheesh,,,re-runs on post 3 ?

LOL
JB this morn.
(get over it Nea)

WEDNESDAY 7 AM

MORE ON TEMPERATURE PROBLEMS.

I am using LGA as a classic example of what happens when either a) a thermometer is not kept up with or b) such data is incorporated as an example of how the earth is warming up. The fact is that many sites today were a) not data points 50 years ago or b) certainly have a different exposure than what they did then.

There is a north to north northwest wind around NYC this morning with a well mixed air mass. There is no reason for LGA on that wind, with that exposure to be 2 degrees warmer than the average of all the stations around them. What gives it away most is the JFK reading.. for the wind and gradient there has to be travelling over a longer distance of exposure to warm upstream conditions ( NYC) than LGA.

Or does it? NYC is colder than LGA this morning.

Now it makes sense on a west southwest wind that LGA would be warmer than everyone else. And lately when the wind has been west southwest you can count on LGA staying 3-6 degrees warmer on a summer night. That is probably too warm also, but one can understand it However there is no reason for things like this.

I am ranting on this for two reasons. One has to do with my continued driving home of the bigger picture by showing glaring examples of smaller picture problems with the facts. The other is that my job here at accuweather.com has me advising major players in the weather derivative markets and one of the sites people love to play with is LGA. For the month of November, a week before the market was trading at plus one for November. I had a pure number of -3 based on incremental forecasts through the month, but after adjustment, it was made -.5, currently its at -1. But the tortured way one has to adjust to such things because of what may or may not be going on at a site, due to lack of upkeep. is absurd. For instance. If my "raw number" for a site is -3, since it is a 30 day forecast, I will cut it in half ( factoring for climo) But in LGA's case you cant do just that, you must then adjust more, up to a degree warmer. So a month that may "add up" to -3 gets a forecast of -.5

This should not be going on.

Another site is Las Vegas. The airport up until 30 years ago was in the desert, so nights were much cooler. Now, the city has been built around the airport. While almost all of Nevada needs a normal month to produce normal temps, Las Vegas needs it 3 Below NORMAL to produce a normal reading.

In a way, I am simply following what my dad did years ago, JUNE 28,1969 , when the Atlantic City airport claims to have had a high of 106 on an afternoon with a howling south wind and only DCA hitting 100..no one around them was within 5 degrees. This was recorded as the all time record high at the airport. It shows up as a single day record at DC of 100, but 106..in Jun, on a south wind? PHL did not even hit 97! And with good reason. Since my dad was working at the research branch, he went out there and by using other thermometers found a 10 degree error..the error on the thermometer was such that at freezing it was fine, but as the temp moved away from freezing, there was an expanding error! Believe I learned first hand about those things through long painful labs in instrumentation at PSU. The fact is a thermometer is much more likely to have a warm bias than cold bias, because any impurity can force it to read warm.

Speaking of PSU, their thermometer site is now a joke in relation to past years, as it is now surrounded by buildings, including one that is referred to as the Ponte Vechio since it crosses 322, the main highway here. It has to be impossible to get a record cold night there unless the wind is blowing 60 miles an hour, since now there is now way the radiative cold that was right there for the taking back in the 70s can get in there.

So now use your common sense. What do you think is going on with temperatures worldwide based on thermometers, as opposed to satellite readings?

And in one fell swoop you see why I am the way I am about the rush to judgement in the AGW issue..part heredity, part the scars from instrumentation here at PSU and part common sense as to what is going on.

But in the case of LGA,and alot of other sites, you cant even trust your own eyes if what you are looking at is not what it appears to be.

ciao for now ****
Thanks Jeff. From volcanos to the Edmund Fitzgerald...what could possibly go wrong today?
Thanks for the update, Doc.

GW Facts


February of 1992 the Gallup Organization polled members of the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society, the two professional groups for climatologists. Only 17 percent said warming trends so far convinced them that an artificial greenhouse effect was in progress.


Only 13 percent of the scientists responding to a survey conducted by the environmental organization Greenpeace believe catastrophic climate change will result from continuing current patterns of energy use.



The eruption of volcano Tambora in Indonesia in 1815 caused the "Year Without Summer" becaue of global cooling. Due to the destruction of crops, disease, contamination of water, etc., tens of thousands more died in the next few following years.(once again global warming is better then global cooling)


In 1991 Volcano Pinatubo caused the entire earth to cool by 1/2 degree for over one year.


The doomsday hurricanes of 2006 global warming alarmists were predicting and hoping for never happened. Infact it was a relatively slow year.

2007 is also predicted to be a busy year for hurricanes. If you predict it every year you have to eventually be right.


"Records" for hurricanes will always be broken because we have only kept "records" for about 100 years.
The sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald - November 10, 1975

The SS Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior 35 years ago. Gordon Lightfoot's song "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald" (1976, Moose Music, Ltd.) is a tribute to this ship wreck and the men who lost their lives. Some of the lyrics of the song are given below along with descriptions of related events.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"..The lake it is said never gives up her dead
when the skies of November turn gloomy

With a load of iron ore 26,000 tons more

than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty...."

On November 10, 1975 the SS Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior. All 29 crew members died. At the time, it was the worst shipping disaster on the Great Lakes in 11 years. Other shipping disasters on the Great Lakes, in which weather played a role include:

Nov. 11, 1913: eighteen ships were lost killing 254 people.

Nov. 11-13, 1940: 57 men died when three freighters sank in Lake Michigan.

Nov. 18 1958: 33 men died on Lake Michigan with the sinking of the Carl D. Bradley.


Nov. 29, 1966: Daniel J. Morrell sank in Lake Huron killing the 28 crew members.

"The ship was the pride of the American side

comin' back from some mill in Wisconsin

As the big freighters go it was bigger than most..."

The Fitzgerald weighted 13,632 tons and was 729 feet long. In 1958, when it was first launched, it was the largest carrier on the Great Lakes, and remained so until 1971. The Fitzgerald was labeled "The Pride of the American Flag". In 1964 it became the first ship on the Great Lakes to carry more than a million tons of ore through the Soo Locks. On November 9, 1975 she departed from Superior, WI with approximately 26,000 tons of ore bound for Detroit MI. Shortly after leaving, the Fitzgerald made contact with the Arthur M. Anderson bound, on a similar route, for Gary IN.



On November 8 a storm was brewing in the plains and proceeded northward towards the Great Lakes. It appeared to be a "typical November storm".


"...and late that night when the ship' bell rang

could it be the north wind they'd bin feelin'."

On November 9 at 7 p.m. the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a gale warning for Lake Superior. In a gale, the wind speeds range from 34-40 knots. The NWS predicted east to northeasterly winds during the night, shifting to NW to N by the afternoon of November 10. At approximately 10:40 p.m. the NWS revised its forecast for eastern Lake Superior to easterly winds becoming southeasterly the morning of the 10th. At about 2:00 am November 10 the NWS upgraded the gale warning to a storm warning (winds 48-55 knots) with a prediction of "northeast winds 35 to 50 knots becoming northwesterly 28 to 38 knots on Monday, waves 8 to 15 feet". Around 2 a.m. the Captains of the Anderson and Fitzgerald discussed the threatening weather and decided to change their route. This safer route would take them northward, toward the coast of Canada. The northern route would protect them from the waves that the storm generated.




Winds generate waves; the size of the wave depends on:


The wind speed: The stronger the winds, the larger the force and thus the bigger the wave. The wind must also be steady - a constant wind speed.

The duration of the winds: The longer the wind blows over the open water, the larger the waves..

The fetch: This is the distance of open water over which the wind blows. The larger the fetch the larger the waves.



At 3 am the winds were reported as coming from the northeast at 42 knots. The Fitzgerald and Anderson proceeded together, the Fitzgerald ahead of the Anderson. They had radio contact and the Anderson's radar located the position of the Fitzgerald.

At 7 am. the storm passed over Marquette MI and started across Lake Superior.


"The wind in the wires made a tattle tale sound

and a wave broke over the railing...."

On the afternoon of November 10 a wind shift was evident. At 2:45 p.m. the winds had backed to NW and were 42 knots. Steady winds at 43 knots and waves of up to 12 and 16 feet were reported by the Anderson. At around this time the Fitzgerald contacted the Anderson and reported "a fence rail down, two vents lost or damaged and a list". A list is when a ship leans to one side. Also around this time, the storm's fury had closed the Sault Ste. Marie locks.

A shift of winds to the NW is very important, as this increased the fetch, allowing large waves to build. The Fitzgerald and Anderson were no longer protected by land.




Late on the afternoon of the 10th, the captain of the Fitzgerald made radio contact with another ship, the Avafor, and reported that they "had a bad list, had lost both radars, and was taking heavy seas over the deck in one of the worst seas he had ever been in." Captain McSorely was a seasoned sailor of the Great Lakes with 44 years of experience.

"...At seven p.m. a main hatchway caved in

he said 'fellas it's bin good to know ya'

The captain wired in he had water comin' in

and the good ship and crew was in peril

and later that night when 'is lights went out of sight

came the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald"

At 7 p.m. the Anderson made radio contact with the Fitzgerald and had her on their radar. When asked how the Fitzgerald was making out they replied "We are holding our own". This was around 7:10 p.m.. Shortly afterwards the Fitzgerald disappeared from the Anderson's radar screen.

This phrase of the song, while romantic, makes it sound as if the crew knew they were doomed. In reality the sinking of the Fitzgerald was very rapid and it is likely they did not know the seriousness of their condition. Indeed, after the wreck a severely damaged life boat was found, and only part of the second. The conditions of these lifeboats suggests that no attempts were made to leave the ship. No distress signals were ever issued.

"...They might have split up or they might have capsized

they may have broke deep and took water...."

What caused the ship to sink? There are a couple of theories cited in the "Marine Casualty Report" by the US. Coast Guard Marine Board of Investigation Report. Since there were no survivors nor witnesses, their report is based on testimonies and an underwater survey of the wreck. This report suggests that the Fitzgerald was taking on water due to earlier damage from the storm and that around 7:15 p.m. it plunged headfirst into a large wave and sank abruptly.

Factors contributing to the sinking:

Raising the wintertime load line.
When a ship is filled with cargo, there is a level at which the ship rests in the water. This level is referred to as the load line. The height load line is set as a function of season and determines the weight of the cargo the ship can transport. Between the time of her launch and its sinking, the SS Edmund Fitzgerald load line was raised 3 feet 3 1/4 inches, making her sit lower in the water. This increased the frequency and quantity of water that could flood the deck during a rough storm.


Leaking Hatchways
The ore was loaded through hatchways located top side. On October 31 routine damage was noted during an inspection and were scheduled for repair after the 1975 shipping season. The hatch covers were not sealed properly and were therefore not water tight, thus allowing water to enter the cargo areas. Once water entered it could migrate throughout the hold. There was no way to determine if flooding was occurring in the cargo bay until the ore was saturated, much like a sponge. Throughout the storm the ship was probably taking on water in the cargo hold though the hatches. Increased water loading, and the lower load line, made the ship sit lower in the water, allowing more water to board the ship. Eventually the "bow pitched down and dove into a wall of water and the vessel was unable to recover. Within a matter of seconds, the cargo rushed forward, the bow plowed into the bottom of the lake, and the midship's structure disintegrated, allowing the submerged stern section, now emptied of cargo, to roll over and override the other structure, finally coming to rest upside-down atop the disintegrated middle portion of the ship" (Marine Accident Report SS Edmund Fitzgerald Sinking in Lake Superior). This sequence of events would lead to a rapid sinking, with no time to make a distress call or attempt life-saving operations. The conditions of the recovered lifeboats support this in that they appear to have been torn from their storage racks.

"Does anyone know where the love of God goes

when the waves turn the minutes to hours? "




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


For more information on the SS Edmund Fitzgerald see:


The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald; Lyrics by Gordon Lightfoot, Moose Music Ltd.

Holden, T., 1991: Lake Superior's wicked November storms. Mariners Weather Log, 4-7.

Knox, J. A. and S. A. Ackerman, 1996: Teaching the extratropical cyclone with the Edmund Fitzgerald storm. 5th AMS Symposium on Education.

Ludington (Mich.) Daily News, November 11, 1975.

Marine Casualty Report, SS EDMUND FITZGERALD; Sinking in Lake Superior on 10 November 1975 with Loss of Life. US. Coast Guard Marine Board of Investigation Report and Commandant's Action. Report No. USCG 16732/64216, Department of Transportation, Coast Guard.

Marine Accident Report SS Edmund Fitzgerald Sinking in Lake Superior, November 10, 1975. May 1978 National Transportation Safety Board, Washington DC. Report Number: NTSB-MAR-78-3

Stonehouse, F., The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. ISBN 0-932212-05-0, Avery Color Studios, Au Train, MI 49806, 1977, 208 pp.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good Morning Ike & Pat - no gale on the Big Lake this year. A friend lost his 26' sloop in that storm. His boat was moored in the Kewaunee, WI Harbor on Lake Michigan. The waves were crashing over the lighthouse that day, over 35' high. Boat broke loose and was damaged beyond repair. It was a horrible day for so many people & families................

Our thoughts now turn to Haiti - please, all remember PORTLIGHT!
Not much happening out there right now.. which is always good :)

Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
G'morning lilElla
Absolutely gorgeous weather in SW FL this week. Right now 61 degrees, 34% humidity and a cool 5-10mph breeze. Only a couple clouds in the sky...great time for a 4 day weekend! WOO HOO!!

ARMY is for real men! LOL
Hi Pat - is there any new word on Portlight? Have they and the kitchen made it to Haiti yet? Such horrible times for so many.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Absolutely gorgeous weather in SW FL this week. Right now 61 degrees, 34% humidity and a cool 5-10mph breeze. Only a couple clouds in the sky...great time for a 4 day weekend! WOO HOO!!



Have a great 4 day weekend brother and you also have a NFL game on tomorrow night to enjoy if you wish. I have Flacco as my fantasy QB and I'm expecting big numbers tomorrow night from him.
235 years of service...thank you Marine Corps...and thanks for those who have served (Patrap).

v/r

Jon
Quoting Eagle101:
235 years of service...thank you Marine Corps...and thanks for those who have served (Patrap).

v/r

Jon


ARMY all the way! I almost sound like a recruiter.
Interesting ACE observation:

Although 2010 is a hyperactive year, it's only 8th in the past 16 years (going back to 1995).

I guess this year has been merely average, compared to the time-frame of post-1994.
Quoting Jeff9641:


ARMY all the way! I almost sound like a recruiter.


Actually...for me...it's Air Force...but I have the most deepest respect for all the "ground pounders"...no one get's closer to the action...

v/r

Jon

BTW...it's way to cold again in NW Florida...why did I move here???
Quoting Jeff9641:
February of 1992 the Gallup Organization polled members of the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society, the two professional groups for climatologists. Only 17 percent said warming trends so far convinced them that an artificial greenhouse effect was in progress.

Actually, that AGU poll was in 1991 (you know, 19 years ago). The results between then and now are startling: in 1991, only 60% of climate scientists believed the planet was warming; that number is now 97%. And in 1991 just 41% of climate scientists agreed with AGW; today that's 74%.

Since 1991, in light of overwhelming evidence, the AGU released (and has subsequently reaffirmed) their position statement, which states in part:

"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system--including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons--are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century."

So, Jeff, thank you very much for highlighting the increasingly dire need for action NOW.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Actually, that AGU poll was in 1991 (you know, 19 years ago). The results between then and now are startling: in 1991, only 60% of climate scientists believed the planet was warming; that number is now 97%. And in 1991 just 41% of climate scientists agreed with AGW; today that's 74%.

Since 1991, in light of overwhelming evidence, the AGU released (and has subsequently reaffirmed) their position statement, which states in part:

"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system--including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons--are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century."

So, Jeff, thank you very much for highlighting the increasingly dire need for action NOW.


Hey brother, I am sorry for our differences of late and I hope that we can move past this. I truely love everybody. We all will have a difference in opinion but we should share our opinions in a civil manner and not name call. Take Care Man!
PensacolaDoug-great points that I have looked at here in Albuquerque. Several times we have had relatively normal months that have been touted as the '10th warmest on record' and the like. Albuquerque is now big enough that the 'heat dome' effect is pronounced. While our highs may be near average, the lows are markedly higher, by 2-5 degrees almost every clear, calm night, and that skews figures and averages.
Dr. Masters-this huge storm of October 26, 2010 generated higher than normal winds in Albuquerque for 3 days. I was amazed that a storm that far away could directly affect us.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Have a great 4 day weekend brother and you also have a NFL game on tomorrow night to enjoy if you wish. I have Flacco as my fantasy QB and I'm expecting big numbers tomorrow night from him.


Since the Ravens beat my Dolphins last week, I'll be rooting for the Falcons...thanks for the well wishing! I responded to your blog posting, BTW...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Strong Cold Front Coming


Probably the piece of Energy the GFS develops in 6 days coming into the picture approaching S. America.





Good Morning TampaSpin! How are you today?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Good Morning TampaSpin! How are you today?


REally good. My oldest daughter birthday is tomorrow, and all the kids are coming home for a weekend of celebrating and fun. They all get in Tonite and Tomorrow. Can't wait as the house will be completely filled with YOung ones and i mean filled as friends and boyfriends are coming too.....GOT ANY EXTRA ROOM? Looks like the weather will be ok as well.
Quoting TampaSpin:


REally good. My oldest daughter birthday is tomorrow, and all the kids are coming home for a weekend of celebrating and fun. They all get in Tonite and Tomorrow. Can't wait as the house will be completely filled with YOung ones and i mean filled as friends and boyfriends are coming too.....GOT ANY EXTRA ROOM? Looks like the weather will be ok as well.


Yeah temps near 80 and lows near 60 from now until next week. I do have room but I am all the way in Orlando! LOL
Its just not so simple when it comes to climate - thermometer placement error has been statistically evaluated and properly considered in literature. The data is backed up in observable changes in things like glacial and permafrost melt.

You are talking about a huge selection of data sources.

If nothing matched I could see being skeptical. But this is ridiculous. Its not as simple as evaluating a temperature station visually - there is a MUCH more involved process.

THIS IS OLD. SO IS THE 93 POLL - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH not based in amateur blogs and the popular press.

Pull the relevant studies and read them - most are available on-line - Do it - I did.
Good Morning Jeff9641, Been chilly last few mornings. I have had lows of 36.1,36.5,and today 39.7. When do you think next chance of good rain is? I,m thinking sometime middle next week.
Quoting Eagle101:


Actually...for me...it's Air Force...but I have the most deepest respect for all the "ground pounders"...no one get's closer to the action...

v/r

Jon

BTW...it's way to cold again in NW Florida...why did I move here???


Did we move here or where we sent here? I was sent twice and have no complaints except when we bought our house, I didn't know Crestview was Florida's refrigerator. Wife loves her backyard fireplace. Will fire it up tomorrow night.
Quoting severstorm:
Good Morning Jeff9641, Been chilly last few mornings. I have had lows of 36.1,36.5,and today 39.7. When do you think next chance of good rain is? I,m thinking sometime middle next week.


Yeah middle of next week looks about right. My low was 51 this morning but I did get down to 41 Last Saturday morning. You should be about 10 degrees warmer tonight in your area as the airmass will modify nicely today. Infact I'm already at 70. Nice to hear from you again and keep in touch buddy.
GM,not going to feel bad about the NW florida cool weather,we here in Boston,have had 4 days of rain,wind and 40's,I'd take cool and sunny any time.
Quoting NEwxguy:
GM,not going to feel bad about the NW florida cool weather,we here in Boston,have had 4 days of rain,wind and 40's,I'd take cool and sunny any time.


Yeah, our cool here is highs in the 70's and lows in the 40's. it looks as if your highs have been in the 40's and I'm watching for what could be one serious cold outbreak toward the end of the month.
Quoting TampaSpin:




I wonder if this pans out, could be trouble..Link
Quoting ncgnto25:
PensacolaDoug-great points that I have looked at here in Albuquerque. Several times we have had relatively normal months that have been touted as the '10th warmest on record' and the like. Albuquerque is now big enough that the 'heat dome' effect is pronounced. While our highs may be near average, the lows are markedly higher, by 2-5 degrees almost every clear, calm night, and that skews figures and averages.
Dr. Masters-this huge storm of October 26, 2010 generated higher than normal winds in Albuquerque for 3 days. I was amazed that a storm that far away could directly affect us.



Those are not my points. For clarification sake, thats is Joe Bastardi's column. He is the chief long range forecaster for ACCUWEATHER. But yes good points. Things that ought to underscore the argument that the AGW theory is not the "slam-dunk" that some would like us all to buy, hook line and sinker.
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder if this pans out, could be trouble..Link


At day 9 the CMC takes this area across FL after hitting the Yucatan. Of coarse by the time this gets near FL it will be just an remanant low.
Quoting Jeff9641:


At day 9 the CMC takes this area across FL after hitting the Yucatan. Of coarse by the time this gets near FL it will be just an remanant low.
Looks like a large low too.....The NAM..Link....The CMC>>>Link




Solar Update - Solar activity has been at very low levels the past 24 hours with only B-Class activity taking place. There will be a chance for C-Class flares around Sunspot 1121. A small sunspot has formed towards the eastern limb of the sun as well.

Sunspots (Early Wednesday)

Quoting TampaSpin:




Solar Update - Solar activity has been at very low levels the past 24 hours with only B-Class activity taking place. There will be a chance for C-Class flares around Sunspot 1121. A small sunspot has formed towards the eastern limb of the sun as well.

Sunspots (Early Wednesday)



What does this mean for us?
Quoting hydrus:
Looks like a large low too.....The NAM..Link....The CMC>>>Link
And the GFS develops it....Link The NCEP has it also....Link
Quoting hydrus:
And the GFS develops it....Link


Interesting! The fact that most of the models are onboard kinda makes you wonder how is this going to materialize when there is not much T-storms down there right now.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Those are not my points. For clarification sake, thats is Joe Bastardi's column. He is the chief long range forecaster for ACCUWEATHER. But yes good points. Things that ought to underscore the argument that the AGW theory is not the "slam-dunk" that some would like us all to buy, hook line and sinker.


Instead of focusing on data that may or may not be in dispute lets look at facts that everyone can agree on. 1. Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas. 2. Human activity (especially since the industrial revolution has increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere. 3. This POTENTIALLY could cause changes to the climate.
This said; Should we not at lest be concernedabout what is going on? If you are driving down a highway that you have never been down before and you see a curve ahead sign. Would you slow down?
Quoting Jeff9641:


What does this mean for us?


Jeff to some that don't believe, but the SUN controls everything for the earth. As some would say, "ITS THE SUN STUPID". Simply means the Sun is in a calm status so, the Earth as a whole should see normal Temps to maybe even below average for the small time frame. Some people don't understand that a flare up on the sun affects our Temps on the earth rather quickly and does make changes to Weather events down the road. IT IS THE SUN THAT CONTROLS ALL......NOT MAN as some believe.
Visited Westover AFB for three days in January during hte middle 80's. Finally thawed out this summer! :)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Interesting! The fact that most of the models are onboard kinda makes you wonder how is this going to materialize when there is not much T-storms down there right now.
Same thing I was thinking earlier. Most models show development but I am wondering from what. Caribbean is basically very clear.
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder if this pans out, could be trouble..Link


Good chance at that occuring as a big old high will be posted near the East Coast so a Westward moving system will be the play. Shear will be the only true factor that would stop something from occuring ....that would be too hard to figure for now!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Jeff to some that don't believe, but the SUN controls everything for the earth. As some would say, "ITS THE SUN STUPID". Simply means the Sun is in a calm status so, the Earth as a whole should see normal Temps to maybe even below average for the small time frame. Some people don't understand that a flare up on the sun affects our Temps on the earth rather quickly and does make changes to Weather events down the road. IT IS THE SUN THAT CONTROLS ALL......NOT MAN as some believe.


I heard this before in one of my Physics classes. That is why I asked because i wanted to make sure I had this correct in my head. Sun Flares would cause cause a rise in the global temps and a sun with normal conditions (i.e no flares) would cause normal conditions here on Earth. Makes a lot of sense.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Same thing I was thinking earlier. Most models show development but I am wondering from what. Caribbean is basically very clear.


I just posted in a graphic above at POST 25 where the system the GFS is developing would be coming from. Check it out above.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Jeff to some that don't believe, but the SUN controls everything for the earth. As some would say, "ITS THE SUN STUPID". Simply means the Sun is in a calm status so, the Earth as a whole should see normal Temps to maybe even below average for the small time frame. Some people don't understand that a flare up on the sun affects our Temps on the earth rather quickly and does make changes to Weather events down the road. IT IS THE SUN THAT CONTROLS ALL......NOT MAN as some believe.
It has been suggested that there are a few outside sources that do effect the Earth,s climate. The Earth,s distance from the sun, rotation and shifts with the axis can be altered by the passing of near by stars..The planets affect the Earth too..
Morning everyone, I put together some images from this season of all the named storms, a year in review you could call it. Check my blog out :)

2010 Year in Review
All right gotta run......all the Graphics i have posted can be found on my Site. Go to my WU Blog if you need more stuff.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Instead of focusing on data that may or may not be in dispute lets look at facts that everyone can agree on. 1. Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas. 2. Human activity (especially since the industrial revolution has increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere. 3. This POTENTIALLY could cause changes to the climate.
This said; Should we not at lest be concernedabout what is going on? If you are driving down a highway that you have never been down before and you see a curve ahead sign. Would you slow down?
I fully agree with the points you have made. However, there are many who don't even believe CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Or they say well it was high before man existed and on and on.

Also,the manipulated data incidents have given the anti AGW believers ammunition meanwhile the planet slides closer to disaster as the window closes.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Instead of focusing on data that may or may not be in dispute lets look at facts that everyone can agree on. 1. Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas. 2. Human activity (especially since the industrial revolution has increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere. 3. This POTENTIALLY could cause changes to the climate.
This said; Should we not at lest be concerned about what is going on?


Can we add one more thing to your list?

4. It's a WORLD problem that cannot be solved by forced reductions in one country, or one group of countries.

So your comment of "If you are driving down a highway that you have never been down before and you see a curve ahead sign. Would you slow down?" the answer is yes.

But if a driver behind you steps on the gas instead, how do you control them?

The U.S. could stop all CO2 emissions, and the world's rate will still rise.
Quoting TampaSpin:
...the Sun is in a calm status so, the Earth as a whole should see normal Temps to maybe even below average for the small time frame.

And yet, that's not happening, is it? The planet continues to warm despite the sun's current "calm status".

Hmmm.... Might be time to go back to the drawing board, guys. ;-)
...The Sun is the same in a relative way,,but yer older..and shorter of breath,and one day,closer to death"..

Pink Floyd
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah middle of next week looks about right. My low was 51 this morning but I did get down to 41 Last Saturday morning. You should be about 10 degrees warmer tonight in your area as the airmass will modify nicely today. Infact I'm already at 70. Nice to hear from you again and keep in touch buddy.

Ok glad to see we are on the same page with the weather. I'm around just really busy at work and thats a great thing. Talk soon
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I fully agree with the points you have made. However, there are many who don't even believe CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Or they say well it was high before man existed and on and on.

Also,the manipulated data incidents have given the anti AGW believers ammunition meanwhile the planet slides closer to disaster as the window closes.
Hi Kerry! I am not interested in shrill discussions of the nuts-and-bolts of GW (as you may have noticed) but there is good science on the topic out there for those who are interested. It is telling that you are the only one who responded to the post. Most people are not interest in a discussion of ideas but rather a promotion of their personal convictions.
Quoting Jax82:
Morning everyone, I put together some images from this season of all the named storms, a year in review you could call it. Check my blog out :)

2010 Year in Review

Very well done. Clear review of the images, thanks!
True. As long as anyone is burning fossil fuels, sequestered carbon is being converted to CO2 and released. It is a difficult isssue to address and that is part of the reason people react strongly when it is discussed.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I just posted in a graphic above at POST 25 where the system the GFS is developing would be coming from. Check it out above.
Thanks.
Quoting Patrap:
...The Sun is the same in a relative way,,but yer older..and shorter of breath,and one day,closer to death"..

Pink Floyd
Nice!
Wow! 4 out of 5 posts on GW without snide comments.
Snide comment. :)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Wow! 4 out of 5 posts on GW without snide comments.


and you would never guess who the one snide one is! haha, Im on the natural cycles train, we will just see how it all pans out.
Sorry to post and run....bbl.
GFS is developing a strong Tropical Storm and sends it toward the Yucatan Channel next week. Look at this link below and click the GFS model then select location Caribbean.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm
WOW!! I can't believe what I'm seeing on the GFS right now a tropical system heading toward FL a week before Thanksgiving!!!!
I'd like to do something absolutely shocking and make an on topic comment. The Mighty Fitz was considered the Queen of the Great Lakes. She was the biggest boat for years when I was helping my dad (while in junior high) fix navigatin equipment on the lakes. She was unique in that she was coal fired. Everything about her was first rate, from pilot house, to the tunnels from for and aft, to the engine room to the crew quarters (well at least by Great Lakes standards...crew quarters are never even at a 1 star hotel rating). I can still close my eyes and smell her pilot house, her engine room, and the place where we got on and smelled the coal bins. Larger boats were around when she went down, but there was always a special place in the hearts of those who were in the business for the Mighty Fitz, even before she went down.
If the GFS is right then what a way to end the season with a US landfall of a tropical system with a season that has had 19 named storms.

Edit: GFS bends this NE toward Cuba as a trough moves thru.
MRF-GFS shows some deep cold air building and moving southward at end of run

Quoting DanM6:
I'd like to do something absolutely shocking and make an on topic comment. The Mighty Fitz was considered the Queen of the Great Lakes. She was the biggest boat for years when I was helping my dad (while in junior high) fix navigatin equipment on the lakes. She was unique in that she was coal fired. Everything about her was first rate, from pilot house, to the tunnels from for and aft, to the engine room to the crew quarters (well at least by Great Lakes standards...crew quarters are never even at a 1 star hotel rating). I can still close my eyes and smell her pilot house, her engine room, and the place where we got on and smelled the coal bins. Larger boats were around when she went down, but there was always a special place in the hearts of those who were in the business for the Mighty Fitz, even before she went down.
I passed over the wreck site in 1985 while working for the Navy..I remember Harry Reasoner reporting the loss of the Fitzgerald and all hands in 1975...very sad...And a little bit eerie passing so close to the wreck.
mornin'.....
Instead of focusing on data that may or may not be in dispute lets look at facts that everyone can agree on

Without accurate data, the whole discussion becomes crap. Whats wrong with testing thermometers and checking their placement? Unbiased reserch is what is needed. The issue is too important to get wrong.
Interesting 12Z GFS run for sure! Something to watch over the coming days i guess.
Strongest November hurricane: Lenny, 1999, November 13-23. 155 mph, 933 mbar. Also notable for its eastward motion. Tied with Michelle in 2001 based on central pressure of 933 mbar, 140 mph wind.
AMY!!!!!
Latest hurricane to strike the U. S.: late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.
Quoting Jeff9641:

GW Facts
BRIn 1991 Volcano Pinatubo caused the entire earth to cool by 1/2 degree for over one year.


I remember that year time period. Schools in the area were cancelled due to the temperatures not getting above negative numbers (if I remember correctly, it was below -10 for a while).

That summer there was a article in the local paper that had shown people pulling ice out of Lake Superior in JUNE!

I remember it being crazy cold during that year. I remember having a snowball fight during July when we found a patch of snow just off the beach in the woods.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Without accurate data, the whole discussion becomes crap.

Empiricism merits a strong statement that GW is occurring. The point is, throw out all temp readings and there is still much to see that exemplifies global climate warming. That's the only point I'll address since this hasn't yet slid into an AGW debate. I comment on JB's line of data questioning, his clear insinuation, and to counter your quoted statement. The discussion can most certainly take place with information we have. Agreed though, absolutely we need more unbiased research and instrumentation testing.
Any GW data you deem questionable you need to source the studies using that data as well as at least be aware of the statistical methods employed to deal with that particular data issue.

A stations thermometer placement as critiqued visually has no bearing whatsoever on the final outcome of all information and/or the conclusions of all studies. 

None unless it is qualified specifically.

Things are a lot more advanced in climate science than blogs and the popular press would have you believe.
87. 7544
Quoting Jeff9641:
WOW!! I can't believe what I'm seeing on the GFS right now a tropical system heading toward FL a week before Thanksgiving!!!!


what part of fl.? tia
Quoting 7544:


what part of fl.? tia


It looked as if it was heading that direction but then turned toward Cuba then turned and the GFS has it hitting Belize. Poor C.A can't catch a break!
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Any GW data you deem questionable you need to source the studies using that data as well as at least be aware of the statistical methods employed to deal with that particular data issue.

A stations thermometer placement as critiqued visually has no bearing whatsoever on the final outcome of all information and/or the conclusions of all studies. 

None unless it is qualified specifically.

Things are a lot more advanced in climate science than blogs and the popular press would have you believe.


The problem is their is a lot of Flawed information (ie Data) being submitted by the Scientist.
This color-coded image shows concentrations of sulfur dioxide on November 4-8, 2010, as observed by NASA's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The greatest concentrations of the gas appear in dark red-brown. The lightest concentrations appear in light peach. In this image, sulfur dioxide is measured in Dobson Units. If you compressed all the sulfur dioxide in an atmospheric column into a flat layer at 0 degrees Celsius and standard atmospheric pressure (1 atmosphere), a Dobson Unit would be 0.01 millimeters thick and would contain 0.0285 grams of sulfur dioxide per square meter.

On November 9, 2010, the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center based in Australia reported that a sulfur dioxide cloud was observed over the Indian Ocean, between 40,000 and 50,000 feet (12,000 and 15,000 meters)%u2014in the upper troposphere.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Jeff to some that don't believe, but the SUN controls everything for the earth. As some would say, "ITS THE SUN STUPID". Simply means the Sun is in a calm status so, the Earth as a whole should see normal Temps to maybe even below average for the small time frame. Some people don't understand that a flare up on the sun affects our Temps on the earth rather quickly and does make changes to Weather events down the road. IT IS THE SUN THAT CONTROLS ALL......NOT MAN as some believe.


I'm an avid outdoorsman and Moon guy myself. The major impact on animal behavior throughout the year is due to nocturnal light levels and gravity. From Sep to Feb my world is ruled by the Moon. Now I have to admit that cold fronts are a major player in the rut and waterfowl migration so we will give the Sun its due...
It's a calm and pleasant fall morning on the south shore of Lake Superior. I had 49 degrees this morning at 07:00 with calm winds and some high clouds filtering the sunshine.

I did want to post two pictures from the Gale two weeks ago (10/26 and 10/27). The first is from Grand Marais, MN (from Bryan Hansel and used by the NWS Office in Duluth) and the second is from Washburn, WI (from J. Penney-Ritter and published in the Ashland Daily Press) looking at a vehicle parked on the coal dock.





The Washburn photo is impressive because that coal dock is located in a protected bay with a barrier island (and other islands) protecting the bay from the open waters of Lake Superior.

And finally, a compiled map (also from the NWS Office in Duluth, MN) that shows measured wave heights, maximum wind gusts, squall line propagation, and areas that saw accumulating snow. The system didn't quiet follow the same path as the 1975 storm, but was equally impressive. I do want to point out a number of wind gusts that reached or exceeded 74 mph:

79 mph at Appleton, WI
78 mph at Rock of Ages, Isle Royale
78 mph on the shores of Whitefish Bay
78 mph at Mackinaw Bridge, MI
76 mph in Chicago, IL
74 mph at Traverse City, MI

dashboard cowman!!!!!

:)
Quoting NRAamy:
dashboard cowman!!!!!

:)


LOL! Amy your killing me!
Amy!!!!!


:)
Quoting Jeff9641:


The problem is their is a lot of Flawed information (ie Data) being submitted by the Scientist.

No, there's not.
Some good Edmund Fitzgerald weather information and maps can be found at NWS Marquette, MI webapge: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/?n=Edmund_Fitzgerald
Yawn! Another possible SW Carribean TC that might have a 1 and 1000 chance in hitting FL. as a tropical Rainstorm.
Wanna See the great weather and sea conditions in Key West Harbor,and what we do for fun in the middle of the week Live streaming Video cam here

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/conchs-vs-coral-reef#utm_campaigne=synclickback&source=http://keysban k.com/default.aspx?v=50d073f0-297b-4883-b9bd-4f93b1fb90f8&medium=5502100
Quoting Keys99:
Wanna See the great weather and sea conditions in Key West Harbor,and what we do for fun in the middle of the week Live streaming Video cam here

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/conchs-vs-coral-reef#utm_campaigne=synclickback&source=http://key sban k.com/default.aspx?v=50d073f0-297b-4883-b9bd-4f93b1fb90f8&medium=5502100


What a life!
Quoting oracle28:
Interesting ACE observation:

Although 2010 is a hyperactive year, it's only 8th in the past 16 years (going back to 1995).

I guess this year has been merely average, compared to the time-frame of post-1994.


That's a scary statistic!
Quoting Jeff9641:


The problem is their is a lot of Flawed information (ie Data) being submitted by the Scientist.


Correction: The data isn't flawed, only the interpretation of it.
GFS 162 hrs. Develops TD south of Cuba
NAM 84 hrs. also...



Quoting smartinwx:


Correction: The data isn't flawed, only the interpretation of it.


That's a better way of saying it. I agree!
On this day in weather history ..

* 1915 - An unusually late season tornado struck the central Kansas town of Great Bend killing eleven persons along its 35 mile track. The tornado destroyed 160 homes in Great Bend killing 11 persons and causing a million dollars damage. Hundreds of dead ducks dropped from the sky northeast of the track's end. (The Weather Channel)

* 1975 - Another "freshwater fury" hit the Great Lakes. A large ore carrier on Lake Superior, the Edmund Fitzgerald, sank near Crisp Point with the loss of its crew of 29 men. Eastern Upper Michigan and coastal Lower Michigan were hardest hit by the storm, which produced wind gusts to 71 at Sault Ste Marie MI, and gusts to 78 mph at Grand Rapids MI. Severe land and road erosion occurred along the Lake Michigan shoreline. A popular hit song by Gordon Lightfoot was inspired by the storm. (David Ludlum)

* 1987 - A cold front brought snow to the Appalachian Region and freezing temperatures to the central U.S. Up to nine inches of snow blanketed Garrett County of extreme western Maryland. Freezing temperatures were reported as far south as El Paso TX and San Angelo TX. Gale force winds lashed the Middle Atlantic Coast and the coast of southern New England. Thunderstorms brought fire quenching rains to Alabama, and produced large hail and damaging winds to eastern North Carolina. Ahead of the cold front, seven cities in Florida and Georgia reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

* 1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure system in southeastern Ontario buffeted the northeastern U.S., with the Lower Great Lakes Region hardest hit. Winds in western New York State gusted to 68 mph at Buffalo, to 69 mph at Niagra Falls, and to 78 mph at Brockport. Four persons were injured at Rome NY when a tree was blown onto their car. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 1989 - Strong southwesterly winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. Winds of 80 to 90 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook zone of Montana, with gusts to 112 mph. Unseasonably warm weather accompanied the high winds. Shortly after midnight the temperature at Kalispell, MT, reached a record 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 1989 - Windy and wet weather prevailed across Washington State. Strong southerly winds gusted to 70 mph at Rattlesnake Ridge, near Hanford. Six rivers in western Washington State rose above flood stage between the 9th and the 11th of the month, following eight days of moderate to heavy rain. Rainfall over the western slopes of the Cascade Mountains between the 3rd and the 10th ranged from 14 to 24 inches. High freezing levels also caused the early snowpack to melt, adding to the runoff in the rain-swollen rivers. Damage was heaviest in Whatcom County, where the Nooksack River caused nearly six million dollars damage, mostly to roads and bridges. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 2002 - Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front and produced a widespread outbreak of severe weather including many tornadoes. The worst tornado damage was concentrated in Ohio, Tennessee and Alabama. A tornado rated as F-4 on the Fujita Scale struck Van Wert county in Ohio. In Tennessee, the community of Mossy Grove was nearly destroyed by a mile-wide tornado that claimed 12 lives (ENS). A major outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes occurred across the U.S. Tennessee and Ohio valley region on November 10-11, 2002, producing damage in 13 states. A total of 75 tornadoes touched down on Sunday 10th, resulting in at least 36 deaths (ENS).
GFS 12z has become more robust with development in the southern Caribbean about 5-7 days from now. Pretty solid development on the model.

Quoting tornadodude:
On this day in weather history ..

* 1915 - An unusually late season tornado struck the central Kansas town of Great Bend killing eleven persons along its 35 mile track. The tornado destroyed 160 homes in Great Bend killing 11 persons and causing a million dollars damage. Hundreds of dead ducks dropped from the sky northeast of the track's end. (The Weather Channel)

* 1975 - Another "freshwater fury" hit the Great Lakes. A large ore carrier on Lake Superior, the Edmund Fitzgerald, sank near Crisp Point with the loss of its crew of 29 men. Eastern Upper Michigan and coastal Lower Michigan were hardest hit by the storm, which produced wind gusts to 71 at Sault Ste Marie MI, and gusts to 78 mph at Grand Rapids MI. Severe land and road erosion occurred along the Lake Michigan shoreline. A popular hit song by Gordon Lightfoot was inspired by the storm. (David Ludlum)

* 1987 - A cold front brought snow to the Appalachian Region and freezing temperatures to the central U.S. Up to nine inches of snow blanketed Garrett County of extreme western Maryland. Freezing temperatures were reported as far south as El Paso TX and San Angelo TX. Gale force winds lashed the Middle Atlantic Coast and the coast of southern New England. Thunderstorms brought fire quenching rains to Alabama, and produced large hail and damaging winds to eastern North Carolina. Ahead of the cold front, seven cities in Florida and Georgia reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

* 1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure system in southeastern Ontario buffeted the northeastern U.S., with the Lower Great Lakes Region hardest hit. Winds in western New York State gusted to 68 mph at Buffalo, to 69 mph at Niagra Falls, and to 78 mph at Brockport. Four persons were injured at Rome NY when a tree was blown onto their car. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 1989 - Strong southwesterly winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. Winds of 80 to 90 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook zone of Montana, with gusts to 112 mph. Unseasonably warm weather accompanied the high winds. Shortly after midnight the temperature at Kalispell, MT, reached a record 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 1989 - Windy and wet weather prevailed across Washington State. Strong southerly winds gusted to 70 mph at Rattlesnake Ridge, near Hanford. Six rivers in western Washington State rose above flood stage between the 9th and the 11th of the month, following eight days of moderate to heavy rain. Rainfall over the western slopes of the Cascade Mountains between the 3rd and the 10th ranged from 14 to 24 inches. High freezing levels also caused the early snowpack to melt, adding to the runoff in the rain-swollen rivers. Damage was heaviest in Whatcom County, where the Nooksack River caused nearly six million dollars damage, mostly to roads and bridges. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 2002 - Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front and produced a widespread outbreak of severe weather including many tornadoes. The worst tornado damage was concentrated in Ohio, Tennessee and Alabama. A tornado rated as F-4 on the Fujita Scale struck Van Wert county in Ohio. In Tennessee, the community of Mossy Grove was nearly destroyed by a mile-wide tornado that claimed 12 lives (ENS). A major outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes occurred across the U.S. Tennessee and Ohio valley region on November 10-11, 2002, producing damage in 13 states. A total of 75 tornadoes touched down on Sunday 10th, resulting in at least 36 deaths (ENS).


I remember that outbreak as almost every storm in Tennessee had a tornado on this day in 2002. Some of those tornadoes were deadly.
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 12z has become more robust with development in the southern Caribbean about 5-7 days from now. Pretty solid development on the model.

The 12Z GFS also shows quite a favorable upper air pattern for development.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I remember that outbreak as almost every storm in Tennessee had a tornado on this day in 2002. Some of those tornadoes were deadly.


yeah I remember it a little as well,

I tend to remember the outbreaks in '03 and '04 pretty well.

I used to be glued to the computer watching the radar and I'd watch the weather channel as well.

As much as the weather channel has changed, it definitely helped me to acquire a real interest in weather. of course, this was back in the '90's when it was still an actual weather channel ha

Quoting smartinwx:


Correction: The data isn't flawed, only the interpretation of it.

But even that statement doesn't go far enough, as it assumes some equivalence exists between true climate science and the bilge being spewed and spun by the anti-science arm of Big Energy--an equivalence that simply doesn't exist. Look at it this way: suppose oodles of data points from a thousand different sources indicate that the planet is warming. Group A--climate scientists--looks at those data and interprets them as "The planet is warming", while Group B--Big Energy, radio talk show hosts, etc.--looks at those same data and interprets them as, "It only looks like it's warming; it's all a scam". Now, what kind of a fool would a person have to be to look on and say, "Gee, both sides have an equal and valid point; it really is all about how the data's interpreted."?
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 12z has become more robust with development in the southern Caribbean about 5-7 days from now. Pretty solid development on the model.



I'm trying to find the 12Z Euro showing this Caribbean system anybody have it?
Quoting Jeff9641:


I remember that outbreak as almost every storm in Tennessee had a tornado on this day in 2002. Some of those tornadoes were deadly.
We have not been to fortunate with the tornadoes here in Tennessee..I hope this month is quiet. November is a month known for severe weather in these parts..
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
The 12Z GFS also shows quite a favorable upper air pattern for development.


Indeed. We can see the belt of strong westerlies mostly north of the Caribbean with upper level ridging dominating the Caribbean.

Quoting Neapolitan:

But even that statement doesn't go far enough, as it assumes some equivalence exists between true climate science and the bilge being spewed and spun by the anti-science arm of Big Energy--an equivalence that simply doesn't exist. Look at it this way: suppose oodles of data points from a thousand different sources indicate that the planet is warming. Group A--climate scientists--looks at those data and interprets them as "The planet is warming", while Group B--Big Energy, radio talk show hosts, etc.--looks at those same data and interprets them as, "It only looks like it's warming; it's all a scam". Now, what kind of a fool would a person have to be to look on and say, "Gee, both sides have an equal and valid point; it really is all about how the data's interpreted."?


Very Good Nea! That is what meant in my statement just should have worded it differently.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm trying to find the 12Z Euro showing this Caribbean system anybody have it?


Some of the frames have come out on Raleighwx
Quoting Drakoen:


Indeed. We can see the belt of strong westerlies mostly north of the Caribbean with upper level ridging dominating the Caribbean.

To be honest, that pattern has the potential create a November monster. Let's see if the 12Z Euro jumps on board. I suspect it will.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
To be honest, that pattern has the potential create a November monster. Let's see if the 12Z Euro jumps on board. I suspect it will.



The 12Z Euro is out! I can't seem to find the full run that shows the whole Caribbean.
Quoting hydrus:
We have not been to fortunate with the tornadoes here in Tennessee..I hope this month is quiet. November is a month known for severe weather in these parts..


I feel ya man,

Tornado Kills 22 in Indiana

At least one tornado ripped through southern Indiana near Evansville before dawn Sunday, killing at least 22 people and injuring about 230.

Related storms also caused extensive damage and killed horses at a Kentucky race track as a line of severe thunderstorms crossed the area.

Rescuers searched for survivors past nightfall amid the ruins of numerous mobile homes in Evansville where witnesses said several trailers had been picked up by the winds and tossed into a nearby lake.

Adam Groupey, deputy director of emergency management for Evansville and Vanderburgh County, said the tornado touched down about 2 a.m. in Henderson County, Kentucky, then crossed the Ohio River and hit an Evansville mobile home park before moving into Warrick County.

CNN

8 days later....

Indiana, F3, Washington area Daviess, Martin counties
12 miles (20 km)
Destroyed at least 64 homes and damaged at least 70 more along the US 150 corridor in Washington, Cannelburg and Loogootee. Up to 200 employees were trapped at K&K Industries in Montgomery, but they were all accounted for.

Wiki

I actually live in Washington ^
Quoting Drakoen:


Some of the frames have come out on Raleighwx


Thanks!
Quoting Jeff9641:



The 12Z Euro is out! I can't seem to find the full run that shows the whole Caribbean.
It's coming out now. Through 144 hours it doesn't show much of a system. Just a broad low in the SW Carib with little vorticity.

South of Cuba

..
Does someone have a web cam link to the Indonesian valcano
..
Just thought i would share a few storm pics from Tuesday. Top 3 are from my neighbourhood and last 2 are from newspaper. Enjoy :-)









Quoting AussieStorm:
Just thought i would share a few storm pics from Tuesday. Top 3 are from my neighbourhood and last 2 are from newspaper. Enjoy :-)











wow!

quite the storm, man!

how've you been, Aussie?
Quoting belizeit:
Does someone have a web cam link to the Indonesian valcano

Mt Merapi Image cam. Click to refresh image.

Quoting Neapolitan:

But even that statement doesn't go far enough, as it assumes some equivalence exists between true climate science and the bilge being spewed and spun by the anti-science arm of Big Energy--an equivalence that simply doesn't exist. Look at it this way: suppose oodles of data points from a thousand different sources indicate that the planet is warming. Group A--climate scientists--looks at those data and interprets them as "The planet is warming", while Group B--Big Energy, radio talk show hosts, etc.--looks at those same data and interprets them as, "It only looks like it's warming; it's all a scam". Now, what kind of a fool would a person have to be to look on and say, "Gee, both sides have an equal and valid point; it really is all about how the data's interpreted."?


Reminds me of the evolution vs. "intelligent design" argument. How science and psychobabble ended up in the same arena is puzzling.
Quoting tornadodude:


wow!

quite the storm, man!

how've you been, Aussie?

you want a normal answer or a real honest answer?
Looks like we might very well see Virginie by Monday. TBH.. this will probably be our last in season storm.
GFS 12z Monday

UKMET 12z Monday, Invest.


GGEM/CMC 12z.. Strengthening Virginie by Monday

Quoting AussieStorm:

you want a normal answer or a real honest answer?


Im all ears
Quoting Neapolitan:

But even that statement doesn't go far enough, as it assumes some equivalence exists between true climate science and the bilge being spewed and spun by the anti-science arm of Big Energy--an equivalence that simply doesn't exist. Look at it this way: suppose oodles of data points from a thousand different sources indicate that the planet is warming. Group A--climate scientists--looks at those data and interprets them as "The planet is warming", while Group B--Big Energy, radio talk show hosts, etc.--looks at those same data and interprets them as, "It only looks like it's warming; it's all a scam". Now, what kind of a fool would a person have to be to look on and say, "Gee, both sides have an equal and valid point; it really is all about how the data's interpreted."?
You missed the point. Nobody is questioning the measured fact that the earth is warming...nobody!, so stop with that. The questioning is on the cause which comes directly from interpretation of data not facts. I suggested to you before and I'll restate it here: as long as you use terms meant to belittle and came from an agended base, your art will never convince of your science. Try talking to people on here instead of talking down...it ain't working.
Quoting Neapolitan:

But even that statement doesn't go far enough, as it assumes some equivalence exists between true climate science and the bilge being spewed and spun by the anti-science arm of Big Energy--an equivalence that simply doesn't exist. Look at it this way: suppose oodles of data points from a thousand different sources indicate that the planet is warming. Group A--climate scientists--looks at those data and interprets them as "The planet is warming", while Group B--Big Energy, radio talk show hosts, etc.--looks at those same data and interprets them as, "It only looks like it's warming; it's all a scam". Now, what kind of a fool would a person have to be to look on and say, "Gee, both sides have an equal and valid point; it really is all about how the data's interpreted."?


There are other groups you've excluded.

The "yes it's warming, but the cause is still unknown" group.

The "yes it's been warming for the past 20/30/50 years, but is that significant?" group

and others...

This is not a 2-party political debate, as much as people would like to make it into one.
Quoting Neapolitan:

And yet, that's not happening, is it? The planet continues to warm despite the sun's current "calm status".

Hmmm.... Might be time to go back to the drawing board, guys. ;-)


Who ever would call the sun "calm" clearly has some strange views of what "calm" is.

To keep the effect the sun has on us in perspective it's important to note that ALL of life on earth is fueled by 20kg of sun mass PER DAY. The sun burns roughly 4 million tons of mass PER SECOND to fuel it's reaction. Just to keep this in better perspective we on earth consume roughly 1/10,000th of the energy produced by the sun per day. Which translate to roughly 1366 watts per square meter per second (or your average hair drier)

The suns energy output varies by a very marginal 0.00425% per year (it's important to note that it's not always an upward increase in output). But even this slight increase in sun output from year to year is potentially responsible for approximately 25% of the global warming seen on earth.

I just thought this was some interesting input on the suns effect on earth and figured I would share.
Quoting tornadodude:


Im all ears

well my back has decided to give me crap again. on pretty heavy medication just 22 days from my vacation to the Philippines. So i am in a pretty crap head space atm.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Just thought i would share a few storm pics from Tuesday. Top 3 are from my neighbourhood and last 2 are from newspaper. Enjoy :-)











WOW! I see Spring has sprung by you! Keep us posted buddy!
141. Jax82
Goodbye 93L



Quoting Jeff9641:


WOW! I see Spring has sprung by you! Keep us posted buddy!

I hope to bring some storm pics while I am in the Philippines also.
Quoting acyddrop:


Who ever would call the sun "calm" clearly has some strange views of what "calm" is.

To keep the effect the sun has on us in perspective it's important to note that ALL of life on earth is fueled by 20kg of sun mass PER DAY. The sun burns roughly 4 million tons of mass PER SECOND to fuel it's reaction. Just to keep this in better perspective we on earth consume roughly 1/10,000th of the energy produced by the sun per day. Which translate to roughly 1366 watts per square meter per second (or your average hair drier)

The suns energy output varies by a very marginal 0.00425% per year (it's important to note that it's not always an upward increase in output). But even this slight increase in sun output from year to year is potentially responsible for approximately 25% of the global warming seen on earth.

I just thought this was some interesting input on the suns effect on earth and figured I would share.


Thank you for the info, but it will likely fall on deaf ears, unfortunately.

Especially with grant money at stake...
Quoting AussieStorm:

well my back has decided to give me crap again. on pretty heavy medication just 22 days from my vacation to the Philippines. So i am in a pretty crap head space atm.


oh my,

well I hope the best for you!

you need to get well so you can enjoy your trip
Quoting tornadodude:


oh my,

well I hope the best for you!

you need to get well so you can enjoy your trip

I am doing the best i can to get it back to "normal". Pretty hard when there is 3 bulging disc's down there.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am doing the best i can to get it back to "normal". Pretty hard when there is 3 bulging disc's down there.


wow man, thats rough
Quoting tornadodude:


wow man, thats rough

I've been worse than how I am atm. not long after it happened, breathing hurt.
Quoting RipplinH2O:
You missed the point. Nobody is questioning the measured fact that the earth is warming...nobody

Do you really believe that? I mean seriously? I could kill this blog--and perhaps even the entire internet--if I were to list even 10% of that subset of contrarians who subscribe to the "The Planet is not warming" plank of the anti-GW platform. (Hint: some of them are members right here on WU.)

I say this with all due respect: you're going to have to do a lot better than that. ;-)
Quoting AussieStorm:

I've been worse than how I am atm. not long after it happened, breathing hurt.


still rough tho, hope you get to feeling better
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am doing the best i can to get it back to "normal". Pretty hard when there is 3 bulging disc's down there.


Hydroteraphy in swimming pools and in the sea sometimes help.... Also check out this link - hope the best!!

Link
Quoting sunlinepr:


Hydroteraphy in swimming pools and in the sea sometimes help.... Also check out this link - hope the best!!

Link

Thanks, I have had this for 3 years since a work accident. Took me 13months to get back to "normal" work. This is the 3rd time it has came back, normally not this bad, just means i have been doing to much.

Anyone watching the Cam link I posted earlier of Mt Merapi? She's putting on a nice little show.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am doing the best i can to get it back to "normal". Pretty hard when there is 3 bulging disc's down there.


Hey Aussie,
That's terrible. I'm sorry to hear your back is acting up again. I sure hope it gets better for you.
Quoting acyddrop:


Who ever would call the sun "calm" clearly has some strange views of what "calm" is.

To keep the effect the sun has on us in perspective it's important to note that ALL of life on earth is fueled by 20kg of sun mass PER DAY. The sun burns roughly 4 million tons of mass PER SECOND to fuel it's reaction. Just to keep this in better perspective we on earth consume roughly 1/10,000th of the energy produced by the sun per day. Which translate to roughly 1366 watts per square meter per second (or your average hair drier)

The suns energy output varies by a very marginal 0.00425% per year (it's important to note that it's not always an upward increase in output). But even this slight increase in sun output from year to year is potentially responsible for approximately 25% of the global warming seen on earth.

I just thought this was some interesting input on the suns effect on earth and figured I would share.

Can you please share with us where you got that 25% number? Because it doesn't seem to jibe with the science which states that between 1960 and now, energy from the sun has been decreasing (likely as a result of increased sunspot activity). At the same time, however, both the oceans and the air have become warmer and warmer. Ergo, something else besides the sun must be causing the Earth's temperature to rise, would you not agree?

Bottom line: while there is absolutely no credible science indicating that the sun is causing the observed increase in global temperature, the known physical properties of greenhouse gasses provide the only real and measurable explanation for and of global warming.

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hey Aussie,
That's terrible. I'm sorry to hear your back is acting up again. I sure hope it gets better for you.

If it wasn't for my back, i wouldn't of found this site.
and now we have the off-season coming into play with all the climate change debates, religion debates, and whatever else people want to argue about and show that they know more than everyone else ha
Quoting Neapolitan:

Do you really believe that? I mean seriously? I could kill this blog--and perhaps even the entire internet--if I were to list even 10% of that subset of contrarians who subscribe to the "The Planet is not warming" plank of the anti-GW platform. (Hint: some of them are members right here on WU.)

I say this with all due respect: you're going to have to do a lot better than that. ;-)
Again with the cherry picking of quotes. Read the second half again...
Quoting tornadodude:
and now we have the off-season coming into play with all the climate change debates, religion debates, and whatever else people want to argue about and show that they know more than everyone else ha

I'll only coming in here to post pics. Wont get involved with any other crap.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll only coming in here to post pics. Wont get involved with any other crap.


I think I'll have to join you there, going to try to stick with weather this off season
If you post religion, politics, economics, weather errors, Gwarming.... you will end with a war in here..... But if you post music with your weather Sat pict.... bloggers go along with it.... At least thats what I've noticed....
Quoting tornadodude:


I think I'll have to join you there, going to try to stick with weather this off season


You can also post projects like yours and you will get ideas from some bloggers....
Quoting tornadodude:
and now we have the off-season coming into play with all the climate change debates, religion debates, and whatever else people want to argue about and show that they know more than everyone else ha


LOL! I agree! I maybe spending my time on Hurricanejunky's blog in the future as I see we have a tyrant on the blog now.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll only coming in here to post pics. Wont get involved with any other crap.


Hey buddy, I hope your back feels better. :)
Quoting sunlinepr:
If you post religion, politics, economics, weather errors, Gwarming.... you will end with a war in here..... But if you post music with your weather Sat pict.... bloggers go along with it.... At least thats what I've noticed....

I like that name... "Gwarming". Sounds like some mysterious (yet disgusting) disease.

You: "My doctor said I have Gwarming. It hurts"
Quoting sunlinepr:


You can also post projects like yours and you will get ideas from some bloggers....


I will keep the blog updated on it

Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! I agree! I maybe spending my time on Hurricanejunky's blog in the future as I see we have a tyrant on the blog now.


haha yeah no kidding
Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! I agree! I maybe spending my time on Hurricanejunky's blog in the future as I see we have a tyrant on the blog now.
A tyrant? Where?
Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! I agree! I maybe spending my time on Hurricanejunky's blog in the future as I see we have a tyrant on the blog now.

I have used the ignore feature on this blog more this year than in the previous 3 years i have been here. i went for less than 10 handles on ignore to over 60. now that says how bad this blog has been this year.
If we could just somehow manage to keep the politics out, things would improve dramatically. My site focuses solely on the weather without the politics which makes for quite a different atmosphere.
169. DanM6
One interesting fact about global temperatures that I didn't seen explictly mentioned in the discussion is that, in any given year, there are a wealth of factors that influene global temperatures. Among them are:

1) Greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere
2) Output of the sun
3) El Nino/La Nina

In addition to these, there are numerous factors that tend to vary from year to year, negative and positive feed back mechanisms, etc.

So, one should not expect a monotonic trend in average global temperatures. Rather, one should expect a good deal of year to year variation. But, for the most part, one should be able to look at at least 15 year averages (preferably 30 year averges), and factor out most effects.

The random variables, which we could call weather related, should averge out over 15 years and will be reduced by another factor of sqrt(2) over 30 years. Same with El Nino/La Nina effects on the mean ocean temperature. For the last 150 years, one could say the same with solar output that varies with the sunspot cycle....especially over 30 years. However, if the delay in the onset of the next maximum cycle continues, it is within the relm of possibilities that we are entering into another multi-decade minimum. In that case, solar variation becomes a long term player.

So, given that, we have an understandable model of global temperatures. If are entering into a global minimum, we should see a shift in temperatures, comperable to the "Little Ice Age" long term effect, which would be added to the global warming long term effect. The result would be that global warming would be decreased by about 0.5C to 0.75C....but otherwise the pattern would be the same.

And for that, the critical point is that greenhouse gasses continue to increase, even though the US has reduced its output of CO2 back to mid-90s levels. China is number 1 and increasing about 8%-10%/year and India has effectively, announced that it expects to increase CO2 by 40% over the next two years. These two countries should, by that time, have about 3x the EU, the US, Australia and Japan in CO2 emissions.

That is, of course, unless there is a positie black swan in renewable energy. That black swan would have to be cost competitive with oil and coal.

BTW, as recent news items have shown, things like electric cars aren't really green at the prices we pay for them. We merely export pollution, with massive ground contamination in China being responsible for the affordable prices of rare earth elements.
Quoting jeffs713:

I like that name... "Gwarming". Sounds like some mysterious (yet disgusting) disease.

You: "My doctor said I have Gwarming. It hurts"


Well, you can call it Globwar

Sounds more like the effect it has in the blog...
Quoting jeffs713:

I like that name... "Gwarming". Sounds like some mysterious (yet disgusting) disease.

You: "My doctor said I have Gwarming. It hurts"


Or a DJ name...like G-Money...G-Warming...he's heating up tonight folks...spinning the tunes that get you hot!!
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Or a DJ name...like G-Money...G-Warming...he's heating up tonight folks...spinning the tunes that get you hot!!



LOL

nice
Quoting TampaSpin:


Jeff to some that don't believe, but the SUN controls everything for the earth. As some would say, "ITS THE SUN STUPID". Simply means the Sun is in a calm status so, the Earth as a whole should see normal Temps to maybe even below average for the small time frame. Some people don't understand that a flare up on the sun affects our Temps on the earth rather quickly and does make changes to Weather events down the road. IT IS THE SUN THAT CONTROLS ALL......NOT MAN as some believe.


I wish this was the case. Venus is closer to the Sun than is the Earth and it is much hotter than is the Earth. Mars is further from the Sun than is the Earth and is colder than the Earth. Makes sense, right? Yes it does and then some would deduce that it is only our distance from the Sun that determines our climate and any "activity" of the Sun would be the only variable we would experience. Correct? No, this is not correct. The atmosphere of the planet also plays into the equation. Should the Earth, Venus and Mars share the same orbit around the Sun then Venus would still be much hotter than is the Earth and Mars would be still much colder than is the Earth. Proof of concept? Look at our own Moon. Why? We have a different atmosphere than either Mars or Venus. Mars has a thin atmosphere and Venus has a thick atmosphere. Just as importantly Mars has few greenhouse gases and Venus has a large amount of greenhouse gases. - I am always amazed at how few people can grasp this and understand what it means.

Neapolitan, you have mail.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Or a DJ name...like G-Money...G-Warming...he's heating up tonight folks...spinning the tunes that get you hot!!


Well, thanks got the message...
Quoting DanM6:
BTW, as recent news items have shown, things like electric cars aren't really green at the prices we pay for them. We merely export pollution, with massive ground contamination in China being responsible for the affordable prices of rare earth elements.


1) Most of the pollution caused by a vehicle occurs during its life, not its manufacture. Your average car burns many times its own weight in fuel during its lifespan, *and* most of its parts are recycled.

2) Rare-earth elements are used in hybrids, but generally not electric cars. They're used in NiMH battery packs, while most EVs use li-ion; and they're used in permanent magnet motors, while most EVs use AC induction motors.

3) You don't judge environmental merits of things based on "news reports"; you base them on peer-reviewed impact studies.
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Again with the cherry picking of quotes. Read the second half again...

I read the second half, but I have to say: being complacent hasn't worked, either. For years we believers in science have stood idly by hoping that truth, reason, and logic would take hold once people saw the facts and did the research. The idea was that folks would see the science, and come to the same inescapable conclusion that the vast majority of credible climate scientists have: the planet is warming, and mankind's activity are largely to blame.

That complacency, as it turns out, was a mistake.

For too long now, the profoundly deep pockets of Big Energy--and others who stand to profit the most by maintaining the fossil fuel status quo--have been allowed free reign to control the narrative, to obfuscate the facts, to confuse the population, and to set up a false equivalency. The stolen emails that led to the completely bogus "climategate" scandal was likely the penultimate straw, while last week's ushering into political office of many climate change skeptics was the very last.

Well, enough is enough.

The American Geophysical Union is this week starting an initiative that will involve around 700 climate scientists who promise to speak out when and where possible on the unbiased facts, something they heretofore haven't done. In additon, a core "rapid response" group of scientists is being put together to confront both skeptics and liars (both groups are not the same) in very public forums to combat some of the utter dreck that's been put out by the anti-GW side for years. As Scott Mandia, a professor at Suffolk County Community College in New York and co-leader of the rapid response team, said: "This group feels strongly that science and politics can't be divorced and that we need to take bold measures to not only communicate science but also to aggressively engage the denialists and politicians who attack climate science and its scientists. We are therefore taking the fight to them because we are ... tired of taking the hits. The notion that truth will prevail is not working. The truth has been out there for the past two decades, and nothing has changed."

It's about time, if you ask me. ;-)
Seems like they finally concluded that yesterday's mystery missile was a plane....


Surely by now you've heard about the "mystery missile" that darted across the Southern California sky. Military officials and other federal authorities don't appear to have a clue as to what the flying object could have been. But some outside experts have a simple explanation for the uproar: What appeared to be a projectile spreading across the sky in the video was simply a contrail, the plume of smoke that airplanes typically leave in their wake.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like they finally concluded that yesterday's mystery missile was a plane....


Surely by now you've heard about the "mystery missile" that darted across the Southern California sky. Military officials and other federal authorities don't appear to have a clue as to what the flying object could have been. But some outside experts have a simple explanation for the uproar: What appeared to be a projectile spreading across the sky in the video was simply a contrail, the plume of smoke that airplanes typically leave in their wake.


UFO?
I came here looking for a weather update... So what is going on weather wise?
Quoting Dakster:
I came here looking for a weather update... So what is going on weather wise?



well, weed through the G-Warming debates, etc, and you might find something ha

Lawrenceville-Vincennes Intl Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -87.6 Elev: 430
Last Update on Nov 10, 1:53 pm CST

Fair

75 °F
(24 °C)
Humidity: 28 %
Wind Speed: S 10 G 16 MPH
Barometer: 30.10" (1019.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 40 °F (4 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Quoting Neapolitan:

But even that statement doesn't go far enough, as it assumes some equivalence exists between true climate science and the bilge being spewed and spun by the anti-science arm of Big Energy--an equivalence that simply doesn't exist. Look at it this way: suppose oodles of data points from a thousand different sources indicate that the planet is warming. Group A--climate scientists--looks at those data and interprets them as "The planet is warming", while Group B--Big Energy, radio talk show hosts, etc.--looks at those same data and interprets them as, "It only looks like it's warming; it's all a scam". Now, what kind of a fool would a person have to be to look on and say, "Gee, both sides have an equal and valid point; it really is all about how the data's interpreted."?


One question, then - who collects, controls, and processes the "data"?

Group A or group B?

And, which group refuses to release data, or the methods they used to process the data - group A or group B?

If scientists could just report the findings without the alarmist hype ('warmest in a million years'), or allow others to check their math ('why should we let you see the data. you're just trying to find something wrong with it'), more people might believe them.
Quoting Dakster:
I came here looking for a weather update... So what is going on weather wise?


Nothing much right now but models are indicating that our next tropical system maybe in the cards later this weekend into next week.
Quoting Jeff9641:


UFO?


Well it was last night, but now it seems they identified it... so it is a
IFO now...
THINGS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME INTERESTING

According to the GFS, things look like they will stir up in 5 days down south and move northwest towards Yucatan Channel. I do not know much, but that can't be good for Florida this time of the year right?
Quoting Dakster:
I came here looking for a weather update... So what is going on weather wise?


Take a look at cyclogenesis link
Link
click on submit, then FWD and check S of Cuba for the next TD
Quoting sebastianflorida:
THINGS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME INTERESTING

According to the GFS, things look like they will stir up in 5 days down south and move northwest towards Yucatan Channel. I do not know much, but that can't be good for Florida this time of the year right?


Well see! If this was to come our way SST are in the 60's and 70's now which may not be enough to sustain a tropical system if it was to come our way.
Quoting Dakster:
I came here looking for a weather update... So what is going on weather wise?


well apparently things are heating up :p
Wow. 949mb low:



190. DanM6

To answer Karen Rei,

In an ideal world, scientific studies would procede without political impact. The reality is that China is a society where everything is controlled. An outside, independant study of pollution in China is not possible. Indeed, their CO2 output must be put together from known facts; becasue their government controls the official output numbers.

If you know people who've been to Bejing, you would know how bad things are in the capital city. We know that they can produce rare earths so cheaply that they are, virtually, the sole supplier. We know that much of the expense in mining rare earths comes from safely handling of the sludge that is the byprodct.

We also know that Chinese mining involves the deaths of thousands per year. Given that, I must wait for them to allow a real study to make a conclusion?

Global warming has its scientific aspect. But, the geopolitical and ecconomic factors are much more important.

Out of curiosity, how do you handle the case where politics stops you from doing any rigorous study in a country like China. Do you ignore high probabilities because politics prevent real scientific studies?



Dan M.
191. myway
Quoting tornadodude:


well apparently things are heating up :p


Then turn on the a/c thats what I do.

Massive gamma ray bubbles discovered in galaxy center
(Interesting News in Yahoo now....)

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Two huge, mysterious gamma ray-emitting bubbles have been discovered at the center of the Milky Way galaxy, US astronomers said Tuesday.

Masked by a fog of gamma rays that appears throughout the sky, the bubbles form a feature spanning 50,000 light-years and could be the remnant of a supersized black hole eruption or the outflows from a burst of star formation, astronomers said.

Link
Quoting hcubed:


One question, then - who collects, controls, and processes the "data"?

Group A or group B?

And, which group refuses to release data, or the methods they used to process the data - group A or group B?

If scientists could just report the findings without the alarmist hype ('warmest in a million years'), or allow others to check their math ('why should we let you see the data. you're just trying to find something wrong with it'), more people might believe them.

Group B hasn't produced much data - but lots of noise.
Group A does let others check over it.. its called a peer-reviewed publication.
If you can parse though countless datapoints and understand the data, you are probably part of group A already.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Well see! If this was to come our way SST are in the 60's and 70's now which may not be enough to sustain a tropical system if it was to come our way.

Depends where it would come in. SSTs on the west coast south of Port Charlotte and on the east coast south of Jacksonville are still above the 26.C required to maintain a TC.


Cracks found in space shuttle Discovery's fuel tank, not just foam, complicates repairs

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - NASA has found cracks in space shuttle Discovery's fuel tank. Discovery is grounded until at least the end of the month by a hydrogen gas leak. The leak forced NASA to call off last Friday's launch attempt.
Thanks all...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Well see! If this was to come our way SST are in the 60's and 70's now which may not be enough to sustain a tropical system if it was to come our way.
where do you get SST in that range I am sure they did not drop 15 degrees in two weeks
Quoting Neapolitan:

Depends where it would come in. SSTs on the west coast south of Port Charlotte and on the east coast south of Jacksonville are still above the 26.C required to maintain a TC.


Interesting even as cold as it was last weekend that the SST are still that warm. I know the Water Temp at Daytona is 70 today. Gulfstream I'm sure is still 80 plus and around the Keys in response to the Loop Current.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I read the second half, but I have to say: being complacent hasn't worked, either. For years we believers in science have stood idly by hoping that truth, reason, and logic would take hold once people saw the facts and did the research. The idea was that folks would see the science, and come to the same inescapable conclusion that the vast majority of credible climate scientists have: the planet is warming, and mankind's activity are largely to blame.

That complacency, as it turns out, was a mistake.

For too long now, the profoundly deep pockets of Big Energy--and others who stand to profit the most by maintaining the fossil fuel status quo--have been allowed free reign to control the narrative, to obfuscate the facts, to confuse the population, and to set up a false equivalency. The stolen emails that led to the completely bogus "climategate" scandal was likely the penultimate straw, while last week's ushering into political office of many climate change skeptics was the very last.

Well, enough is enough.

The American Geophysical Union is this week starting an initiative that will involve around 700 climate scientists who promise to speak out when and where possible on the unbiased facts, something they heretofore haven't done. In additon, a core "rapid response" group of scientists is being put together to confront both skeptics and liars (both groups are not the same) in very public forums to combat some of the utter dreck that's been put out by the anti-GW side for years. As Scott Mandia, a professor at Suffolk County Community College in New York and co-leader of the rapid response team, said: "This group feels strongly that science and politics can't be divorced and that we need to take bold measures to not only communicate science but also to aggressively engage the denialists and politicians who attack climate science and its scientists. We are therefore taking the fight to them because we are ... tired of taking the hits. The notion that truth will prevail is not working. The truth has been out there for the past two decades, and nothing has changed."

It's about time, if you ask me. ;-)
Good luck. When science is presented in a manner to educate by people that are deemed competent in the subject matter, the message will probably be received and maybe even accepted. When presented in a manner to belittle by people that are deemed holier than thou even if competent in the subject matter, the message will NOT be received and rejected. Being right is the easy part. Convicing others that you are right AND getting them to DO something is the hard part. Using terms like "aggressively engage the denialists and politicians who attack climate science and its scientists. We are therefore taking the fight to them because we are ... tired of taking the hits" doesn't help. Assuming your science is right, until you change your art, you will not convert any "deniers" and will probably add to their numbers. The harder you push, the less they will listen. This isn't a fight to most, it's a discussion. But like I said, good luck...
Quoting weaverwxman:
where do you get SST in that range I am sure they did not drop 15 degrees in two weeks


Look at the SST in this link below. They dropped quite a bit since last week.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif
weatherlover94 back again how was everyone been?
Now I have seen hurricanes in the North Atlantic (ie Vince near Spain) in 60 water temps a few years back.
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011133
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON NOV 01 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FIVE TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF OCTOBER...ALL OF WHICH BECAME HURRICANES. THESE NUMBERS ARE
FAR ABOVE THE LONG-TERM (1944-2009) AVERAGES OF 2 TROPICAL STORMS
AND 1 HURRICANE. THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES WAS ONLY ONE BELOW THE
RECORD OF 6 WHICH WAS OBSERVED IN OCTOBER 1870. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN OCTOBER WAS ABOUT 40 PERCENT ABOVE AVERAGE.
MANY OF THE HURRICANES WERE SHORT-LIVED AND DID NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH
TO THE ACE.

SO FAR THIS SEASON...OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY TO DATE IS
ABOUT 164 PERCENT OF THE LONG-TERM MEDIAN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE
LETTERS...HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2010ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
----------------------------------------------------
H ALEX 25 JUN-2 JUL 105
TD TWO 7-8 JUL 35
TS BONNIE 22-24 JUL 40
TS COLIN 2-8 AUG 60
TD FIVE 10-11 AUG 35
MH DANIELLE 21-31 AUG 135
MH EARL 25 AUG-5 SEP 145
TS FIONA 30 AUG-4 SEP 60
TS GASTON 1-2 SEP 40
TS HERMINE 6-8 SEP 65
MH IGOR 8-21 SEP 155
MH JULIA 12-20 SEP 135
MH KARL 14-18 SEP 120
H LISA 21-26 SEP 80
TS MATTHEW 23-26 SEP 60
TS NICOLE 28-29 SEP 40
H OTTO 6-10 OCT 85
H PAULA 11-15 OCT 100
H RICHARD 21-26 OCT 90
H SHARY 29-30 OCT 75
H TOMAS 29 OCT - 100

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE/BERG/STEWART

Quoting weaverwxman:
where do you get SST in that range I am sure they did not drop 15 degrees in two weeks


Nasty Cold Thanksgiving Week 2010

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Nov 10, 2010; 1:30 PM ETShare | .


The weather may be going cold turkey for Thanksgiving week. (Photo by Photos.com)
Thanksgiving week for much of the U.S. is looking ice cold as one or more blasts of air spill southward out of the Arctic.

It appears the frigid air will sweep from the northern Rockies and Plains all the way to the Atlantic Seaboard and into much of the South.

The progressive cold and snow building over the northern Rockies now through the middle of November are only the hors d'oeuvres of what may be a smorgasbord of cold air and wintry conditions starting the weekend before Thanksgiving.

The only places that may be spared the arctic cold at its full extent may be Southern California, the deserts, South Texas and South Florida.

The nasty cold may be preceded by a blizzard from Montana to Colorado during the Friday through Sunday period before Thanksgiving.

It is conceivable the snow could cause major travel disruptions for interstate highways including: 70, 80 and 90 during that weekend.

There is the potential for flight delays at Denver's Stapleton Airport, at least for part of that weekend.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Nasty Cold Thanksgiving Week 2010

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Nov 10, 2010; 1:30 PM ETShare | .


The weather may be going cold turkey for Thanksgiving week. (Photo by Photos.com)
Thanksgiving week for much of the U.S. is looking ice cold as one or more blasts of air spill southward out of the Arctic.

It appears the frigid air will sweep from the northern Rockies and Plains all the way to the Atlantic Seaboard and into much of the South.

The progressive cold and snow building over the northern Rockies now through the middle of November are only the hors d'oeuvres of what may be a smorgasbord of cold air and wintry conditions starting the weekend before Thanksgiving.

The only places that may be spared the arctic cold at its full extent may be Southern California, the deserts, South Texas and South Florida.

The nasty cold may be preceded by a blizzard from Montana to Colorado during the Friday through Sunday period before Thanksgiving.

It is conceivable the snow could cause major travel disruptions for interstate highways including: 70, 80 and 90 during that weekend.

There is the potential for flight delays at Denver's Stapleton Airport, at least for part of that weekend.

Um... Stapleton airport has been closed for 10 years...

This was pulled from accuweather, wasnt it? I sense a large amount of hype involved.
Quoting jeffs713:

Um... Stapleton airport has been closed for 10+ years...


Yeah I think Accuweather made a boo boo.
Christopher C Burt's post was phenomenal. Awesome stuff.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah I think Accuweather made a boo boo.

Yeah. reading over it, I see lots of "may" and "potential" and "it is conceivable". Technically, it may potentially be conceivable that a massive heatwave may strike State College, PA, due in large part the incredible amount of hot air expelled by accuweather.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like we might very well see Virginie by Monday. TBH.. this will probably be our last in season storm.
GFS 12z Monday

UKMET 12z Monday, Invest.


GGEM/CMC 12z.. Strengthening Virginie by Monday

Moving eastward?


Tattooed Mars

Originally released Aug. 1, 2007, this image is of Mars' Russell Crater dune field, which is covered seasonally by carbon dioxide frost. This image shows the dune field after the frost has evaporated from solid to gas, with just a few patches remaining of the bright seasonal frost. Numerous dark dust devil tracks can be seen meandering across the dunes.

Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona
Quoting tornadodude:


2005 to be exact and 2009 05 Vince 09 Grace
Quoting jeffs713:

Yeah. reading over it, I see lots of "may" and "potential" and "it is conceivable". Technically, it may potentially be conceivable that a massive heatwave may strike State College, PA, due in large part the incredible amount of hot air expelled by accuweather.


I hope not, Huge game against MSU that weekend... needs to be cold!
Quoting jeffs713:

Um... Stapleton airport has been closed for 10 years...

This was pulled from accuweather, wasnt it? I sense a large amount of hype involved.
maybe its a pulled forecast from 10 years ago

lol
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Good luck. When science is presented in a manner to educate by people that are deemed competent in the subject matter, the message will probably be received and maybe even accepted. When presented in a manner to belittle by people that are deemed holier than thou even if competent in the subject matter, the message will NOT be received and rejected. Being right is the easy part. Convicing others that you are right AND getting them to DO something is the hard part. Using terms like "aggressively engage the denialists and politicians who attack climate science and its scientists. We are therefore taking the fight to them because we are ... tired of taking the hits" doesn't help. Assuming your science is right, until you change your art, you will not convert any "deniers" and will probably add to their numbers. The harder you push, the less they will listen. This isn't a fight to most, it's a discussion. But like I said, good luck...

But that's just the point. For a few decades now, the science has been "presented in a manner to educate by people that are deemed competent in the subject matter", and to little avail; those with much invested in maintaining the status quo have been the ones doing the belittling (see "Climategate"), who have been acting "holier than thou" (see "Sarah Palin; Rush Limbaugh"), who have been doing all the hard pushing (see ExxonMobil's annual report). And all the while they've been doing that, most scientists have been quietly doing their research while passively hoping people would "get it"--and the planet has continued to warm, glacial and arctic ice has continued to melt, sea levels have continued to rise, and so on.

But that's almost beside the point. Fact is, the AGU doesn't plan on belittling anyone; they merely intend to counter the endless fountain of unscientific garbage being spewed by some with an equal amount of scientific fact. The planet and mankind deserve nothing less, wouldn't you agree?
Quoting Neapolitan:

But that's just the point. For a few decades now, the science has been "presented in a manner to educate by people that are deemed competent in the subject matter", and to little avail; those with much invested in maintaining the status quo have been the ones doing the belittling (see "Climategate"), who have been acting "holier than thou" (see "Sarah Palin; Rush Limbaugh"), who have been doing all the hard pushing (see ExxonMobil's annual report). And all the while they've been doing that, most scientists have been quietly doing their research while passively hoping people would "get it"--and the planet has continued to warm, glacial and arctic ice has continued to melt, sea levels have continued to rise, and so on.

But that's almost beside the point. Fact is, the AGU doesn't plan on belittling anyone; they merely intend to counter the endless fountain of unscientific garbage being spewed by some with an equal amount of scientific fact. The planet and mankind deserve nothing less, wouldn't you agree?


Yes, and "endless" is probably an understatement! LOL!
Quoting Jeff9641:
Nasty Cold Thanksgiving Week 2010

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Nov 10, 2010; 1:30 PM ETShare | .

The weather may be going cold turkey for Thanksgiving week. (Photo by Photos.com)
Thanksgiving week for much of the U.S. is looking ice cold as one or more blasts of air spill southward out of the Arctic.

It appears the frigid air will sweep from the northern Rockies and Plains all the way to the Atlantic Seaboard and into much of the South.

The progressive cold and snow building over the northern Rockies now through the middle of November are only the hors d'oeuvres of what may be a smorgasbord of cold air and wintry conditions starting the weekend before Thanksgiving.

The only places that may be spared the arctic cold at its full extent may be Southern California, the deserts, South Texas and South Florida.

The nasty cold may be preceded by a blizzard from Montana to Colorado during the Friday through Sunday period before Thanksgiving.

It is conceivable the snow could cause major travel disruptions for interstate highways including: 70, 80 and 90 during that weekend.

There is the potential for flight delays at Denver's Stapleton Airport, at least for part of that weekend.

lol oh well see about that
Quoting Neapolitan:

Can you please share with us where you got that 25% number? Because it doesn't seem to jibe with the science which states that between 1960 and now, energy from the sun has been decreasing (likely as a result of increased sunspot activity). At the same time, however, both the oceans and the air have become warmer and warmer. Ergo, something else besides the sun must be causing the Earth's temperature to rise, would you not agree?

Bottom line: while there is absolutely no credible science indicating that the sun is causing the observed increase in global temperature, the known physical properties of greenhouse gasses provide the only real and measurable explanation for and of global warming.

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Actually, the sunspot cycle has been going down for 10 years. We're at the bottom of a cycle now, or what they hope is a cycle. It should have been going up for months, but hasn't yet.
November 2010
8th-11th. Turning unsettled, gusty winds, heavy precipitation. Some wet snow northern New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma.
12th-15th. Rain Texas east, then clearing. Fair elsewhere.
16th-19th. Blustery winds, snow. Southern Plains.
20th-23rd. Fair, cold.
24th-27th. Generally unsettled Thanksgiving holiday, with light snow Southern Rockies, Southern Plains. Fair, but rain Texas. Light snows New Mexico.
28th-30th. Fair, then stormy. Showers, thunderstorms
New Mexico, Texas.

December 2010
1st-3rd. Gradual clearing.
4th-7th. Fair at first, then unsettled with showers.
8th-11th. Fair skies.
12th-15th. Stormy Southern Rockies across Southern Plains. Rain Texas.
16th-19th. Colder.
20th-23rd. Some showers of rain or wet snow.
24th-27th. Fair, then stormy.
28th-31st. Clearing for Southern Rockies east.

January 2011
1st-3rd. Snow Southern Plains.
4th-7th. Stormy; wintry mix changes to rain for Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana.
Hello Everyone!
have been taking a break from the tropics and decided to pop in due to the fact that we have model support on a possible system in about a week. I won't be updating my blog until i actually see the formation of a system, but i will follow the blog and put comments here and there in the next few days. I give the possibility of Virginie forming at around 50%
Quoting CaptainKid:


Actually, the sunspot cycle has been going down for 10 years. We're at the bottom of a cycle now, or what they hope is a cycle. It should have been going up for months, but hasn't yet.




30 percent chance of C-class flare
over next 24 hrs
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




30 percent chance of C-class flare
over next 24 hrs


Check the sunspot activity for the last 10 years: Enter 2005 as the median date.

Link
Quoting hcubed:


One question, then - who collects, controls, and processes the "data"?

Group A or group B?

And, which group refuses to release data, or the methods they used to process the data - group A or group B?


Great questions. For example:

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation

"In a new report, computer expert E. Michael Smith and Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo discovered extensive manipulation of the temperature data by the U.S. Government's two primary climate centers: the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Ashville, North Carolina and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University in New York City. Smith and D'Aleo accuse these centers of manipulating temperature data to give the appearance of warmer temperatures than actually occurred by trimming the number and location of weather observation stations. The report is available online at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NOAAroleinclimategate.pdf."

I'm sure this is old news, and I don't know enough to enable me to believe the veracity of this particular accusation. But I do know that data is prone to be manipulated - including cherry-picking and non-reporting of significant negative results - to produce the desired outcome. For eample, clinical trials done by big Pharma to prove there is nothing wrong with their drug when real life evidence shows otherwise. And then, there's Ancel Keys, who cherry-picked data to show that saturated fat and cholesterol cause heart disease when there was sufficient data to show otherwise. Big Oil. Tobacco. Ghostwrititng!

I guess my point is that following the pattern, there is no reason not to believe that there is a problem with GW data and/or the presentation thereof. But the biggest problem is that people take data and study results as fact, when they may not be.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Great questions. For example:

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation

"In a new report, computer expert E. Michael Smith and Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo discovered extensive manipulation of the temperature data by the U.S. Government's two primary climate centers: the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Ashville, North Carolina and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University in New York City. Smith and D'Aleo accuse these centers of manipulating temperature data to give the appearance of warmer temperatures than actually occurred by trimming the number and location of weather observation stations. The report is available online at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NOAAroleinclimategate.pdf."

I'm sure this is old news, and I don't know enough to enable me to believe the veracity of this particular accusation. But I do know that data is prone to be manipulated - including cherry-picking and non-reporting of significant negative results - to produce the desired outcome. For eample, clinical trials done by big Pharma to prove there is nothing wrong with their drug when real life evidence shows otherwise. And then, there's Ancel Keys, who cherry-picked data to show that saturated fat and cholesterol cause heart disease when there was sufficient data to show otherwise. Big Oil. Tobacco. Ghostwrititng!

I guess my point is that following the pattern, there is no reason not to believe that there is a problem with GW data and/or the presentation thereof. But the biggest problem is that people take data and study results as fact, when they may not be.


Data is always getting manipulated. Why not me??!!

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Great questions. For example:

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation

"In a new report, computer expert E. Michael Smith and Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo discovered extensive manipulation of the temperature data by the U.S. Government's two primary climate centers: the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Ashville, North Carolina and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University in New York City. Smith and D'Aleo accuse these centers of manipulating temperature data to give the appearance of warmer temperatures than actually occurred by trimming the number and location of weather observation stations. The report is available online at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NOAAroleinclimategate.pdf."

I'm sure this is old news, and I don't know enough to enable me to believe the veracity of this particular accusation. But I do know that data is prone to be manipulated - including cherry-picking and non-reporting of significant negative results - to produce the desired outcome. For eample, clinical trials done by big Pharma to prove there is nothing wrong with their drug when real life evidence shows otherwise. And then, there's Ancel Keys, who cherry-picked data to show that saturated fat and cholesterol cause heart disease when there was sufficient data to show otherwise. Big Oil. Tobacco. Ghostwrititng!

I guess my point is that following the pattern, there is no reason not to believe that there is a problem with GW data and/or the presentation thereof. But the biggest problem is that people take data and study results as fact, when they may not be.

Old news, indeed--and, more importantly, thoroughly debunked. D'Aloe and Smith--two long-time skeptics/deniers--merely accused NOAA and NASA scientists of manipulating data, and, as anyone who knows a thing about the justice system is aware of, an accusation is not nearly the same as a verdict of guilty.

Now, you've made some very odd logical leaps to get from point A to point B: you bring up an old, debunked story about "data manipulation" as accused by a couple of guys who were subsequently called out for their basic ignorance of data gathering, and then you used that story to come to the conclusion that "...there is no reason not to believe that there is a problem with GW data and/or the presentation thereof."

Huh?

Again--and for the billionth time--the data overwhelmingly support two fundamental facts: 1) the planet is warming, and 2) man's profligate release of greenhouse gasses is a very large part of that.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Old news, indeed--and, more importantly, thoroughly debunked. D'Aloe and Smith--two long-time skeptics/deniers--merely accused NOAA and NASA scientists of manipulating data, and, as anyone who knows a thing about the justice system is aware of, an accusation is not nearly the same as a verdict of guilty.

Now, you've made some very odd logical leaps to get from point A to point B: you bring up an old, debunked story about "data manipulation" as accused by a couple of guys who were subsequently called out for their basic ignorance of data gathering, and then you used that story to come to the conclusion that "...there is no reason not to believe that there is a problem with GW data and/or the presentation thereof."

Huh?

Again--and for the billionth time--the data overwhelmingly support two fundamental facts: 1) the planet is warming, and 2) man's profligate release of greenhouse gasses is a very large part of that.


Don't confuse me with the facts.
236. DanM6
Jeff S says: "Group A does let others check over it.. its called a peer-reviewed publication."

Unfortunately, climate science has been politicized to the point where peer review publications are not trusted. Look, I think anthropological global warming is a good theory, which has been increasingly well verified over the last 20 years. It's not up there with evolution or the big bang; but I'd bet dollars to donutes that the eventual best theory will be a daughter theory of this.

But....I've asked questions at RealClimate.org and have been disappointed with the defensive and political nature of the responses. From what I've read and asked about, East Angela's research group was guilty of sloppyness and a bit of pettyness. Given the fact that politics and self interest is involved, I would argue that the same thing that was done when there were questions about power lines causing cancer be done: bring in people who have a proven track record of statistical analysis of complex data sets and give them the data, the models, the cuts that were used, the corrections, and let them evaluate.

In the case of the power line/cancer connection the American Physical Society was asked to investigate the articles that appeared in peer reviewed medical journals. They found the flaw in the technique, and even proved, using the same technique, that power lines prevented cancer.

Looking at the data I can get my hands on for global warming, and doing back of the envelope checks for big effects, it is clear to me that, while there are error bars on the findings, an unbiased study by a neutral group of physicists will come up with a finding that shows global warming. It will probably come up with some examples of embarasingly sloppy technique, but when one bungles things, one should take the consequences.

Finally, no one has even started to address the real question of slowing the increase of the rate that CO2 is entering the atmosphere. Should you and how could you persuade China and India to cut their ecconomic growth by 60%-80%?

Good evening all,
Still fantastic weather prevails here in south Argentina. Cloudless sky and temps in the 60's. Annual rainfall here is about 3", and they had some showers last week so we are good to go.

Spent the morning on a boat with 20 other people getting close and personal with the Southern Right Whales and their young.

Called Right Whales because they are inquisitive, slow, and their blow-holes close up when you harpoon them so they continue to float. Easy catches...
Population recovering well due to good preservation the last 20 years or so.

Fantastic creatures especially from 30' away, all with calves.
Mamas are 60' long, and they often hang vertically in the water with the tail held 30' out of the water.
Quite incredible.

The afternoon was to an Elephant Seal nesting area.
These are huge, fat, lazy loungers lying about on the shingle.
Also quite amazing to see these things up close.

All this profusion of sea life depends on ocean currents and the flow of Krill and Anchovies between the Antartic and as far north as Brazil.
Because prevailing winds are westerly into the Pacific coasts of Chile, the seas offshore here are generally calm quite a long way out.
Beyond that, you get into the Roaring Forties proper...
Keep in mind that this is the only landmass this far south, and the ocean rotates around the South Ice without anything to interfere with its sea conditions.
So as you go south of here the sea is more fearsome.

Also happy to report that the Wines are excellent, and very cheap....
heheheheh
hey Neap......

SQUAWK!!!!!!!!!
Every time the big oil companies see these well intentioned debates over AGW they smack their lips and say "they're still debating. Drill baby,drill". And they all get huge Christmas bonuses and have a good laugh at the Planet's expense.
Sounds like you are having a good time....Please E-Mail me a bottle of red..:)
Who will win the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prognostication Contest ? We are almost to the end :)



LOL!
242. DanM6
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Every time the big oil companies see these well intentioned debates over AGW they smack their lips and say "they're still debating. Drill baby,drill". And they all get huge Christmas bonuses and have a good laugh at the Planet's expense.


Your statement has an implicit assumption that I've falsified a number of times here, without contradiction or even a response. It's not just me, it's been falsified numerous times in data taken from places like the UN. (Hint, the assumption has nothing to do with the correlation between greenhouse gas increases and global warming). It's the elephant in the room, and almost no one who has talked about the US needing to cut emissions has mentioned it. I'm not stating it again, becasue I would like someone else to think about it and what is required to change the underlying reality so that we can stop increasing the amount of CO2 put in the atmosphere each year.
Quoting hydrus:
Sounds like you are having a good time....Please E-Mail me a bottle of red..:)

Done...

but I had to drink the contents. some obscure trade ruling.... a shame, that.
Quoting pottery:

Done...

but I had to drink the contents. some obscure trade ruling.... a shame, that.
Then you circumvent the trade ruling by extracting the full promise of your genial intellect.....I need that wine for dinner Pott.
Quoting hydrus:
Then you circumvent the trade ruling by extracting the full promise of your genial intellect.....I need that wine for dinner Pott.


I had to read that twice... thank god I did :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
the data overwhelmingly support two fundamental facts: 1) the planet is warming, and 2) man's profligate release of greenhouse gasses is a very large part of that.


Not denying it. But I will always question the accuracy and reporting of any data, esp. by the mainstream media which have their own agendas, which are mostly driven by their funding sources.
Quoting pottery:

Done...

but I had to drink the contents. some obscure trade ruling.... a shame, that.


Hey Pott.....congrats....sounds like an amazing trip!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I had to read that twice... thank god I did :)
lmao.
Im confident the Mayans will sort it all out come December 2012,...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Old news, indeed--and, more importantly, thoroughly debunked. D'Aloe and Smith--two long-time skeptics/deniers--merely accused NOAA and NASA scientists of manipulating data, and, as anyone who knows a thing about the justice system is aware of, an accusation is not nearly the same as a verdict of guilty.

Now, you've made some very odd logical leaps to get from point A to point B: you bring up an old, debunked story about "data manipulation" as accused by a couple of guys who were subsequently called out for their basic ignorance of data gathering, and then you used that story to come to the conclusion that "...there is no reason not to believe that there is a problem with GW data and/or the presentation thereof."

Huh?

Again--and for the billionth time--the data overwhelmingly support two fundamental facts: 1) the planet is warming, and 2) man's profligate release of greenhouse gasses is a very large part of that.



What makes you so sure the manipulation of data is wrong? Why is it that those who support Global Warming can't be wrong?


I actually do believe Global Warming is occurring because so much scientific evidence does support it. However it is ridiculous to be sure that man is a part of it, because we just, do, not, know. Now, I am not dismissing the possibility that much of Global Warming is man's fault. However, it is yet to be proven. Therefore, it should still be acting as a concern rather than fact. Because to do so is foolish, because science should ALWAYS be taken with a humble attitude, that many things can never be for certain in science.

That being said, even the possibility of Global Warming should cause people to be more mindful of how they treat the world around them. I am an avid outdoorsman, and an avid nature conservationist. I am sick of how people trash the planet(a God given gift, or whatever you believe). I do believe that because of the horrible mistreatment of this planet, climate has likely changed as a result of man. I mean, we have already permanently ruined forests, and many wild life habitats, and the wildlife that lives in them. It only makes sense combined with research to believe the atmosphere has also been disrupted.

However, my main problem for being so sure that data was not disrupted, is understanding the purpose.Conservatives and Liberals are both selfish, greedy and power seeking, I am not in their interest. My point is, don't be so sure data wasn't manipulated, because then it can be easy to believe a bias, and believe those defending it be be pure, and everyone else must be wrong.

A whole lot of people thought the Nazi party was going to bring great things for Germany, but that sure didn't work out too well. I am not saying anyone here is believing Nazi's, but don't be so sure what you support isn't corrupt.

I believe Global Warming is true, but it is pretty clear the government, and a certain amount of people have an agenda of power in mind. Please don't be naive and think people in power won't use Global Warming at the expense for those who have passion for it. I am not a conspiracy theorist telling people to panic. I am just not buying into utopia promises, because I know all people have faults, and power produces corruption more than anything. It may take many years to come to fruit, but don't come apologizing to me when the U.S. economy collapses completely and we are sold out to a world government. Those wicked who want such a thing know there are many in this country and the rest of the world who would not stand for such a horrible thing. However, that is why those in power are trying to deceive using Global Warming, and other tools to accomplish such tasks.


Global Warming is scientifically sound, but we certainly shouldn't treat it like its near doom as the powers at be have suggested. Thank God President Obama has called off Cap and Trade, although he has believed a lot of wrong at least his best interest is still towards his country rather then a a power hungry desire for a world government.


NO MORE ON INVEST 93L ITS OVER!!!!!
Quoting hydrus:
lmao.


I'm a Canuck.. we confuse easily... its the smoke from inside the igloo.


Some funny stuff going on here again this evening. I applaud the entertainment. Carry on, people!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I'm a Canuck.. we confuse easily... its the smoke from inside the igloo.


no more invest 93l its over friends..
Quoting Patrap:
Im confident the Mayans will sort it all out come December 2012,...


Nice, Pat. LOL.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I'm a Canuck.. we confuse easily... its the smoke from inside the igloo.
I thought nothing of it until I read it over....Nothin wrong with a little clam bake bro....
Quoting Ossqss:
Who will win the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prognostication Contest ? We are almost to the end :)



LOL!


Evening all! LOL on the blog song. Since some of us are on the topic of blogs and blogging, I came across this piece earlier this year.

http://faultline.org/index.php/site/item/incendiary/

Makes for an illuminating read :)

Question for anyone: Why is there little mention of geothermal heat in discussions about climate change? Or, clathrate methane emissions? Just throwing that out there as I'm certainly not qualified to speak with any confidence on the subject. TIA if anyone has more info on these topics.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I'm a Canuck.. we confuse easily... its the smoke from inside the igloo.
[Brushes aside mental image of the entire Canadian landmass covered by one giant igloo]

Evening all....
Quoting Patrap:
Im confident the Mayans will sort it all out come December 2012,...


Seems all signs point that way, LOL - L8R :)

262. IKE
The end is near.......


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting Patrap:
Im confident the Mayans will sort it all out come December 2012,...
Quoting BahaHurican:
[Brushes aside mental image of the entire Canadian landmass covered by one giant igloo]

Evening all....
Good evening....Dang that would be a big igloo...Requiring an extra large hookah as well.
Quoting hydrus:
Then you circumvent the trade ruling by extracting the full promise of your genial intellect.....I need that wine for dinner Pott.


Just the thought of Lord Pott circumventing his genials has me warming globally. :))
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening....Dang that would be a big igloo...Requiring an extra large hookah as well.


I wasn't going to go there on my own, but, HY! Good evening.
BahaHurican,19,11,6,2,6-10X

Wow.... I put 19.... Now if we could just not have Virginie I'd be right for a change.... lol

Thanks 4 reminding me of this OSSGSS....

Quoting swampliliy:


Just the thought of Lord Pott circumventing his genials has me warming globally. :))


Swamp! What's up my friend? I'll try to mentally block the image.
Quoting swampliliy:


Just the thought of Lord Pott circumventing his genials has me warming globally. :))
Lord Pott will save all of the human race from any adverse events that may occur on 12/21/12....Praise the ubiquitous, Omnipotent Pott.....
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Swamp! What's up my friend? I'll try to mentally block the image.


Howdy Vet and I'm sure Grillin' is close by. :))

Doing well thanks, just couldn't resist the circumventing genials comment. :))
Wow...... John Cusack AND a supervolcano eruption??? now That I have to see.... lol
Quoting swampliliy:


Just the thought of Lord Pott circumventing his genials has me warming globally. :))


I've read iy over 50 times and it just sounds naughty.

But it's not naughty in any decipherable form, not even a double entendre. Lord Pott is apparently a genius of the written (English, in Spanish he would go down in flames)word. He manages to elicit eroticism without actually using erotic language. To a psychologist this could mean only one thing.

The rest of us have dirty minds. We're depraved on account of we're deprived.
Quoting Patrap:
Im confident the Mayans will sort it all out come December 2012,...


I'm curios,

If the Mayans figured out the end of time, how come they are dead? And I mean a culture and state of them.

Did they move to the burbs? lol
Back later, ya'll. Things seem to be on the QT, no philosophical theatrics or nuttin'... no major wx news.... think I'll go eat some soup.

Quoting hydrus:
Lord Pott will save all of the human race from any adverse events that may occur on 12/21/12....Praise the ubiquitous, Omnipotent Pott.....


Hmmm, hookah and omnipotent Pott. Sweet. The main runneth amok!

Got to 80 degrees here. today.
Quoting swampliliy:


Howdy Vet and I'm sure Grillin' is close by. :))

Doing well thanks, just couldn't resist the circumventing genials comment. :))


Hey swamp, good to see ya. You know me always around lurking in the corner. Just keeping an eye on things.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Hmmm, hookah and omnipotent Pott. Sweet. The main runneth amok!

Got to 80 degrees here. today.
We were in the 60,s...It was in the low 20,s night before last.
GFS 18z continues to insist on development in the southern Caribbean



Quoting hydrus:
Then you circumvent the trade ruling by extracting the full promise of your genial intellect.....I need that wine for dinner Pott.

What a Piquant sentence....
Love it!
Quoting swampliliy:


Just the thought of Lord Pott circumventing his genials has me warming globally. :))

WhooBoy, Good one!
LOLOLOL
Quoting pottery:

WhooBoy, Good one!
LOLOLOL


Thanx, it's a curse. :))

Later m'friends. :))
Quoting CaptainKid:


I've read iy over 50 times and it just sounds naughty.

But it's not naughty in any decipherable form, not even a double entendre. Lord Pott is apparently a genius of the written (English, in Spanish he would go down in flames)word. He manages to elicit eroticism without actually using erotic language. To a psychologist this could mean only one thing.

The rest of us have dirty minds. We're depraved on account of we're deprived.

No Comment!
(but in truth, I have really never considered the situation from these weird points of view. Most enlightening)

heheheheh
Quoting hydrus:
We were in the 60,s...It was in the low 20,s night before last.


Dang, winter's showing it's face a bit early.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Hmmm, hookah and omnipotent Pott. Sweet. The main runneth amok!

Got to 80 degrees here. today.

Lordy!
You guys are waxing warm tonight!
Quoting doorman79:


I'm curios,

If the Mayans figured out the end of time, how come they are dead? And I mean a culture and state of them.

Did they move to the burbs? lol


Are you kidding? There are thousands of them here in Quintana Roo, Mexico. They are populous, industrious, fun-loving, Tequila loving, unattractive, but nice, congenial and would have been trustworthy were they not in close association with Mexicans.
As far as their ability to conjure up a forecast: I am sure that, whatever it was, had to be Tequila induced and designed to make someone the butt of a joke that they (The Mayans) will be laughing about till they fall face down in a corner somewhere.
I think if they hadn't been so hell bent on human sacrifice, (which was a joke on the Spaniards, who apparently had no sense of humor about such things) The Spaniards would have left them alone and just took their gold. But, as usual (and to this day) they carried it too far and it backfired on them.
If they knew something as in the movie 2012, they sure don't believe it. Just another practical joke kept alive to get even with Spain.
Quoting Jedkins01:



What makes you so sure the manipulation of data is wrong? Why is it that those who support Global Warming can't be wrong?


I actually do believe Global Warming is occurring because so much scientific evidence does support it. However it is ridiculous to be sure that man is a part of it, because we just, do, not, know. Now, I am not dismissing the possibility that much of Global Warming is man's fault. However, it is yet to be proven. Therefore, it should still be acting as a concern rather than fact. Because to do so is foolish, because science should ALWAYS be taken with a humble attitude, that many things can never be for certain in science.

That being said, even the possibility of Global Warming should cause people to be more mindful of how they treat the world around them. I am an avid outdoorsman, and an avid nature conservationist. I am sick of how people trash the planet(a God given gift, or whatever you believe). I do believe that because of the horrible mistreatment of this planet, climate has likely changed as a result of man. I mean, we have already permanently ruined forests, and many wild life habitats, and the wildlife that lives in them. It only makes sense combined with research to believe the atmosphere has also been disrupted.

However, my main problem for being so sure that data was not disrupted, is understanding the purpose.Conservatives and Liberals are both selfish, greedy and power seeking, I am not in their interest. My point is, don't be so sure data wasn't manipulated, because then it can be easy to believe a bias, and believe those defending it be be pure, and everyone else must be wrong.

A whole lot of people thought the Nazi party was going to bring great things for Germany, but that sure didn't work out too well. I am not saying anyone here is believing Nazi's, but don't be so sure what you support isn't corrupt.

I believe Global Warming is true, but it is pretty clear the government, and a certain amount of people have an agenda of power in mind. Please don't be naive and think people in power won't use Global Warming at the expense for those who have passion for it. I am not a conspiracy theorist telling people to panic. I am just not buying into utopia promises, because I know all people have faults, and power produces corruption more than anything. It may take many years to come to fruit, but don't come apologizing to me when the U.S. economy collapses completely and we are sold out to a world government. Those wicked who want such a thing know there are many in this country and the rest of the world who would not stand for such a horrible thing. However, that is why those in power are trying to deceive using Global Warming, and other tools to accomplish such tasks.


Global Warming is scientifically sound, but we certainly shouldn't treat it like its near doom as the powers at be have suggested. Thank God President Obama has called off Cap and Trade, although he has believed a lot of wrong at least his best interest is still towards his country rather then a a power hungry desire for a world government.



Nicely written piece, and you bring up some good and valid points. However...I'd like to call your attention to a few errors in equivalency.

1) "I am not dismissing the possibility that much of Global Warming is man's fault. However, it is yet to be proven. Therefore, it should still be acting as a concern rather than fact. Because to do so is foolish, because science should ALWAYS be taken with a humble attitude, that many things can never be for certain in science."

You're right in saying that AGW hasn't been scientfically proven--but then again, neither has evolution or gravity. The point being, the real foolishness is in insisting that AGW be "proven" before any actions are taken to curb it.

2) "Conservatives and Liberals are both selfish, greedy and power seeking"

That's an unfair generalization on both sides. Yes, there are selfish, greedy and power-seeking people on both sides, but to label every one as such is wrong.

3) "Please don't be naive and think people in power won't use Global Warming at the expense for those who have passion for it"

Oh, I'm not naive; of course some in power would be willing to use A/GW for their own nefarious means--but that doesn't in any way diminish the reality of it. If a Mafia hitman throws a rival from a building, he's using gravity for evil purposes--but that makes the Theory of Gravity no less real, does it?

4) "However, that is why those in power are trying to deceive using Global Warming"

Again, another unfair generalization. Some in power may be attempting to deceive, but that fact shouldn't blind you--in fact, shouldn't blind anyone--to the realities of GW.

I'll ignore your anti-Obama minirant at the end; something similar made for the beginnings of a great day here yesterday... ;-)
Quoting pottery:

Lordy!
You guys are waxing warm tonight!


A sign of the times, perhaps. Glad to hear the excursion is going well.
Quoting doorman79:


I'm curios,

If the Mayans figured out the end of time, how come they are dead? And I mean a culture and state of them.

Did they move to the burbs? lol


did you know?
since life started on earth,earth has only
completed two galaxy years
both birthdays were celebrated with the two biggest extintion events the planet
has ever known
in dec 2012
the earth will turn three.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nicely written piece, and you bring up some good and valid points. However...I'd like to call your attention to a few errors in equivalency.

1) "I am not dismissing the possibility that much of Global Warming is man's fault. However, it is yet to be proven. Therefore, it should still be acting as a concern rather than fact. Because to do so is foolish, because science should ALWAYS be taken with a humble attitude, that many things can never be for certain in science."

You're right in saying that AGW hasn't been scientfically proven--but then again, neither has evolution or gravity. The point being, the real foolishness is in insisting that AGW be "proven" before any actions are taken to curb it.

2) "Conservatives and Liberals are both selfish, greedy and power seeking"

That's an unfair generalization on both sides. Yes, there are selfish, greedy and power-seeking people on both sides, but to label every one as such is wrong.

3) "Please don't be naive and think people in power won't use Global Warming at the expense for those who have passion for it"

Oh, I'm not naive; of course some in power would be willing to use A/GW for their own nefarious means--but that doesn't in any way diminish the reality of it. If a Mafia hitman throws a rival from a building, he's using gravity for evil purposes--but that makes the Theory of Gravity no less real, does it?

4) "However, that is why those in power are trying to deceive using Global Warming"

Again, another unfair generalization. Some in power may be attempting to deceive, but that fact shouldn't blind you--in fact, shouldn't blind anyone--to the realities of GW.

I'll ignore your anti-Obama minirant at the end; something similar made for the beginnings of a great day here yesterday... ;-)

This is a good post, in respose to an equally good one from Jedkins.
Nice going.
Quoting pottery:

No Comment!
(but in truth, I have really never considered the situation from these weird points of view. Most enlightening)

heheheheh


Weird is something I know something about.

I'm no stranger to strange, except in a sexual connotation. if you know what I mean. If you don't, consider yourself lucky, even if you don't get it. (lucky)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Dang, winter's showing it's face a bit early.
I,ll say..We had flurries and ice pellets too...The past couple of winters have arrived over a month early. The people from this area said that this has not happened since 1985..bbl
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


did you know?
since life started on earth,earth has only
completed two galaxy years
both birthdays were celebrated with the two biggest extintion events the planet
has ever known
in dec 2012
the earth will turn three.


Dang it Keeper. If it is already on it's way, we are DOOM. Let the folk have a bit of fun, ere the end. lol
Quoting CaptainKid:


Weird is something I know something about.

I'm no stranger to strange, except in a sexual connotation. if you know what I mean. If you don't, consider yourself lucky, even if you don't get it. (lucky)

Ah! I agree with everything you say.
Except for the last part of the last sentence.
But probably because I could not figure it out at all !!.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


did you know?
since life started on earth,earth has only
completed two galaxy years
both birthdays were celebrated with the two biggest extintion events the planet
has ever known
in dec 2012
the earth will turn three.


And where may I research that?

We had time keepers to the day then?
If the lows that drop down towards the tropics move as forecasted I wonder if any of them could turn subtropical. Note the noreaster low forecast to drop south near Bermuda in about 3 days and the low in the east Atlantic heading SSW towards the tropics at the end of the run.

Link
Quoting doorman79:


And where may I research that?

We had time keepers to the day then?

Regardless,
I am not Prepared
to face no demons
who procrastinate and prognosticate
promising prolonged problems
just because its gonna be 2012.
Actually we orbit the center of the galaxy every 225 million years and we have made at least 15 orbits since life began. Also the last circuit began 225 million years ago and the big extinction at the end of the Permian period was 250 million years ago.

But it's an interesting idea.
Quoting pottery:

Regardless,
I am not Prepared
to face no demons
who procrastinate and prognosticate
promising prolonged problems
just because its gonna be 2012.


Me either. Besides they would take one look at me and say "ahh lets find something better"



To the members of Columbia's final mission: Godspeed.

Quoting doorman79:


Me either. Besides they would take one look at me and say "ahh lets find something better"

I am beginning to wonder why you hold yourself in such low esteem, my friend?
Surely, now is the time to stand up and Demand that'they' take you for what you are?
Irregarless of what you are.....
Think positive. You could have become a Lawyer...

heheheheh
Quoting pottery:

I am beginning to wonder why you hold yourself in such low esteem, my friend?
Surely, now is the time to stand up and Demand that'they' take you for what you are?
Irregarless of what you are.....
Think positive. You could have become a Lawyer...

heheheheh


Now thats freaking funny!!!!!!!!!!

I wouldn't be a lawyer for all the money in the world! Besides I have a kid, he aint goin neither!
We will hunt some 6 legged alligators first!
Haiti - Epidemic : 60 deaths, panic in Gonaives

 The cholera epidemic is spreading quickly in Gonaives, at least 60
people died of cholera in the last 72 hours,
including thirty for
Tuesday alone, said Jean Francois Adolphe, the mayor of the fourth
largest city.

"Between Thursday and Monday 25 people died in hospitals of the city"
the mayor said adding that his administration had discovered and picked
up forty dead bodies in the villages
, because they could (not) receive
treatment in time "people ill have to walk to the hospital because taxis
and public transportation refused to transport them,"
some succombemt
on the way to the hospital.


This is going to turn into a worse and more unstable situation if the government there doesn't get a handle on matters.


_______________________________________________________

Reminder:

1 teaspoon (tsp) salt
8 tsp sugar in
1 liter of clean/boiled water

--is recommended by the WHO. If started early before severe dehydration it is literally a magic potion in treating cholera.



Formulae of sugar-salt solutions recommended for treatment of diarrhoeal dehydration at home in African countries.

Abstract

During
a conference on diarrhoeal diseases in Tanzania in 1984, 19
participants representing 16 countries in Africa gave the formulae for
oral rehydration solutions therapy (ORS) which they recommended or
instructed for home use in their own countries. There were gross
variations in recommended quantities of sugar, salt and water.
Theoretical calculations indicated that the glucose concentration ranged
from 29 to 174 mmol/l (recommended 30-112 mmol/l) and that of sodium
from 9 to 116 mmol/l (recommended 30-80 mmol/l). It is very important
that countries should ensure that the recommendations for making up oral
rehydration solutions be standardized, otherwise dangerous or
ineffectual concentrations of salt and sugar solutions may be used for
rehydrating children.

PIP: The composition of the salt and sugar
solutions used for the treatment of diarrheal diseases varies
considerably as a result of different methods for preparing the solution
and the variety of measures and containers used. During a conference on
diarrheal diseases in Tanzania in 1984, the 19 participants from 16
African countries were asked to give the formula for oral rehydration
solutions therapy recommended for home use in their countries. The
concentrations of glucose and sodium in some solutions varied widely
from the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended formula. Reported
glucose concentrations ranged from 29-174 mmol/liter and those of sodium
ranged from 9-116 mmol/liter. WHO recommends that these
homemade sugar-salt rehydration solutions should contain 8 level
teaspoons of sugar and 1 level teaspoon of salt added to 1 liter of
water.
This results in a concentration of 116 mmol/liter of glucose and 86 mmol/liter of sodium. In many cases,
errors arise from the use of a pinch of salt rather than a level
teaspoonful and use of a tablespoonful rather than a teaspoonful of
sugar.
There is the danger that solutions that do not conform
to the recommended composition will be either ineffectual or actually
dangerous. Thus, special care should be taken to standardize the
recommendations for the preparation of sugar-salt rehydration solutions.
This process can be facilitated through the use of a standard teaspoon
and bottle as measures.



Its a recipe worth remembering and having standard measures on hand. It is effective with flu dehydration also. If someone is vomiting wait 10 minutes and try again.
One of the things I really like about this blog... you read a couple pages... and you realize that your actually normal... its everyone else on here who is playing to close to the edge :)
Quoting Orcasystems:
On of the things I really like about this blog... you read a couple pages... and you realize that your actually normal... its everyone else on here is playing to close to the edge :)


Yep!
Wait, you talking bout me;)
Link

Hey Pot,

This is for you!
Quoting Orcasystems:
One of the things I really like about this blog... you read a couple pages... and you realize that your actually normal... its everyone else on here is playing to close to the edge :)

This from someone you has a blog like yours???
Quoting doorman79:
Link

Hey Pot,

This is for you!


Not saying I wanna see you in a skirt though!
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nicely written piece, and you bring up some good and valid points. However...I'd like to call your attention to a few errors in equivalency.

1) "I am not dismissing the possibility that much of Global Warming is man's fault. However, it is yet to be proven. Therefore, it should still be acting as a concern rather than fact. Because to do so is foolish, because science should ALWAYS be taken with a humble attitude, that many things can never be for certain in science."

You're right in saying that AGW hasn't been scientfically proven--but then again, neither has evolution or gravity. The point being, the real foolishness is in insisting that AGW be "proven" before any actions are taken to curb it.

2) "Conservatives and Liberals are both selfish, greedy and power seeking"

That's an unfair generalization on both sides. Yes, there are selfish, greedy and power-seeking people on both sides, but to label every one as such is wrong.

3) "Please don't be naive and think people in power won't use Global Warming at the expense for those who have passion for it"

Oh, I'm not naive; of course some in power would be willing to use A/GW for their own nefarious means--but that doesn't in any way diminish the reality of it. If a Mafia hitman throws a rival from a building, he's using gravity for evil purposes--but that makes the Theory of Gravity no less real, does it?

4) "However, that is why those in power are trying to deceive using Global Warming"

Again, another unfair generalization. Some in power may be attempting to deceive, but that fact shouldn't blind you--in fact, shouldn't blind anyone--to the realities of GW.

I'll ignore your anti-Obama minirant at the end; something similar made for the beginnings of a great day here yesterday... ;-)



Well when I said Global Warming being human cause shouldn't be taken as fact, I say that because it is still a relatively new study. My other reason for mentioning that was to point out that idea that the doom of the world is soon at hand by Global Warming suggested by some is panicking and jumping to conclusions, either that or there are some trying to exploit something that does have a lot of truth, and making it worse to make people go further into debt, which would help to crash our economy. Of courser I am not telling anyone to panic either, thankfully those who are sincere do outnumber those who are out for pure lust and wicked control.

That being said, I didn't mean to generalize everyone, I was just posting the way I was to prove a point, I am not saying all government is completely corrupt.

In many cases, some people can be just wrong with sincere intentions. Its just part of the the flawed nature as us humans. However that's also what makes us so amazing is that we have superior conscience over animals because we can choose to be right or wrong. Because what is wrong is so easy, and with wrong comes temptation, we all are prone to corruption because we all have that desire to seek self. However, its not like we cannot choose to do whats right. The Human mind is in essence a battle ground of good and evil.

Also, are you saying I was being anti-Obama? Cause I wasn't lol. I disagree with much of what Obama believes, but he is my President, my authority, and he does seem to at least be sincere in doing what he believes is right, which even if I believe is wrong sometimes, I'll definitely take that over a leader who has a satan deceiver complex any day! lol
-0-----0--
-----U------
WWWWW
Quoting doorman79:
Link

Hey Pot,

This is for you!

Heh!
Great story there.
And the closest I have got to wearing a skirt, was a sarong. Does that count?
Quoting Orcasystems:
One of the things I really like about this blog... you read a couple pages... and you realize that your actually normal... its everyone else on here who is playing to close to the edge :)


I can't help it. Or way past the edge.
See you all tomorrow, or so!
Been fun.

Stay safe all.
Quoting Orcasystems:
One of the things I really like about this blog... you read a couple pages... and you realize that your actually normal... its everyone else on here who is playing to close to the edge :)


sometimes takes extremes to kick it back to normal
later pottery enjoy you're trip too the deep deep south
Quoting pottery:

This from someone you has a blog like yours???



Ummmm as my GPS likes to say.... recalculating :)
Quoting pottery:

This from someone you has a blog like yours???


ROFLMAO......all that needs to be said!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting Orcasystems:
One of the things I really like about this blog... you read a couple pages... and you realize that your actually normal... its everyone else on here who is playing to close to the edge :)



sometimes takes extremes to kick it back to normal


There are some ummm interesting... to say the least... people on here :)


From normal... to Princess... to just plain wacko ;)
Quoting TampaSpin:


ROFLMAO......all that needs to be said!
should'nt you be fishin somewhere
And big fish that are really little fish that blow really hard out their snoot.
Quoting TampaSpin:
And big fish that are really little fish that blow really hard out their snoot.


Snort Snort :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
should'nt you be fishin somewhere


I would love to be fishing... the spring are still running :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I would love to be fishing... the spring are still running :)


The springs in fall? DArn mayans!


Nice to see so much tolerance this evening. Many points of view, so little ego bs.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Nice to see so much tolerance this evening. Many points of view, so little ego bs.


Thats cause egos are overrated!
Quoting doorman79:


The springs in fall? DArn mayans!


Spring... King Salmon...Chinook... all same same...

Looks like this, I caught this one on the 19th Sept 2010

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


look a big fish















I see tonsils!!!!!
Do you mean, Eggos"?

i would love one of em box it up

327. Orcasystems 2:35 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting doorman79:


The springs in fall? DArn mayans!


Spring... King Salmon...Chinook... all same same...

Looks like this, I caught this one on the 19th Sept 2010


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


look a big fish



ROFLMAO, if I saw that... blowing anything out of my snoot would be the least of my concerns :)
Quoting pottery:

Regardless,
I am not Prepared
to face no demons
who procrastinate and prognosticate
promising prolonged problems
just because its gonna be 2012.


Greetings and salutations my good man. I see by reading back that even on vacation you have been circumventing your genials. I must tell you that your unabashed and unbearable attitude is unacceptable and unbecoming for a man of your advanced years. It is in my humble opinion totally uncalled-for.

I feel incredibly and unaccountably umbraged by the entire subject. And then, when questioned about your verbal phosphorescence, you flaunted your piquancy before the blog for all to see.

Why, in the old days you would be placed in a pillory and pink pillows and pimientos would be thrown at your pituitary gland until you repented.

By the way, I would also like a nice bottle of red, sweet, with a hint of tartness if you don't mind. Send it to the special address as usual. :)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



To the members of Columbia's final mission: Godspeed.



Remembers that day well... RIP indeed.
Quoting hydrus:
Nothin wrong with a little clam bake bro....


Just a little late with this reply, but wanted to start the YouTube song ball rollin'.

Solar flare looks like a c 1 or 2 so far.

I think that area is pointed towards earth now too.

Quoting RTLSNK:


Greetings and salutations my good man. I see by reading back that even on vacation you have been circumventing your genials. I must tell you that your unabashed and unbearable attitude is unacceptable and unbecoming for a man of your advanced years. It is in my humble opinion totally uncalled-for.

I feel incredibly and unaccountably umbraged by the entire subject. And then, when questioned about your verbal phosphorescence, you flaunted your piquancy before the blog for all to see.

Why, in the old days you would be placed in a pillory and pink pillows and pimientos would be thrown at your pituitary gland until you repented.

By the way, I would also like a nice bottle of red, sweet, with a hint of tartness if you don't mind. Send it to the special address as usual. :)


I was trying to think of something superbious and verbose to say.... but I decided to keep it simple for some others on here :)

How does it feel to want?

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Remembers that day well... RIP indeed.


Yes sir. May the Space program continue in their honor, as well as all the others who have given their lives, so that mankind could step beyond the planet. Thank you.



11.3 catfish last month
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Solar flare looks like a c 1 or 2 so far.

I think that area is pointed towards earth now too.



Quoting Orcasystems:


I was trying to think of something superbious and verbose to say.... but I decided to keep it simple for some others on here :)

How does it feel to want?



Actually, I am superfluously happy with my freezer full of ribeyes and new york strips. I don't even like fish! :)

next area to watch
Quoting RTLSNK:


Actually, I am superfluously happy with my freezer full of ribeyes and new york strips. I don't even like fish! :)


Umm trade?
I don't like fish either... unless its smoked.
Not tropical, but at least potentially warm-core: a possible polar low spooling up south of Iceland. It is even trying to form an eyewall.


Cracks found in space shuttle Discovery's fuel tank, not just foam, complicates repairs

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - NASA has found cracks in space shuttle Discovery's fuel tank. Discovery is grounded until at least the end of the month by a hydrogen gas leak. The leak forced NASA to call off last Friday's launch attempt.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm trade?
I don't like fish either... unless its smoked.


I might just send you and SWMBO a case of ribeye steaks for using the word superbious!
Wow, an obsolete word from the 18th century.

Google info: William Shakespeare used the word once in the Tragedy of Locrine, the Eldest Son of King Brutus, in the following passage -

"Nor wreak I of thy threats, Thou princox boy, Nor doe I fear thy foolish insolency, And but thou better use thy bragging blade. Then thou does rule thy overflowing tongue, Superbious Britain, Thou shalt know too soon the force of Humber and his Scythians."

Wow, Big Fish, you really are old. :)


Quoting RTLSNK:


I might just send you and SWMBO a case of ribeye steaks for using the word superbious!
Wow, an obsolete word from the 18th century.

:)




I was just trying to chat with you in language from your teenage years, or so my Grandpa tells me :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

next area to watch
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Solar flare looks like a c 1 or 2 so far.

I think that area is pointed towards earth now too.



Could be so ~~~~



But no Carrington Event yet

Mount Bulusan, a volcano in the Philippines erupts.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I was just trying to chat with you in language from your teenage years, or so my Grandpa tells me :)

Quoting RTLSNK:



GASP... I go the coveted SOA:)
Not Quite End of Season Analysis:

“We lucked out,” said Brian McNoldy, a storm researcher in the department of atmospheric science at Colorado State University.

Link

Link

Thanks for this year's lurking. Best of the holiday season and the winter to all.



Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Mount Bulusan, a volcano in the Philippines erupts.

Sorry, but that's old news to me. Bulusan Volcano went to level 1 on Saturday, 06 November and has remained at level 1. a few times a day there is steam explosions that has a slight ash mix.
Taal Volvano just south of Manila has shown a slightly higher than normal seismic activity also and is being monitored. More can be found here.
Just sayin on the missile front........Would this not be on somebodies radar records? Where are they with the radar data if it is a plane? Let alone the flight plan in restricted air space :) Think about it! Gnite

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7038111n&tag=related;photovideo
Quoting Ossqss:
Just sayin on the missile front........Would this not be on somebodies radar records? Where are they with the radar data if it is a plane? Let alone the flight plan :) Think about it!

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7038111n&tag=related;photovideo


Blogger Believes Webcam Image Solves 'Missile' Mystery

Its from Fox news..so it has to be Gospel. j/k


Some large swells forecast for the Tropics beginning Thursday.
You know it. The same source who favored us all with this graphic:


Quoting Orcasystems:


Blogger Believes Webcam Image Solves 'Missile' Mystery

Its from Fox news..so it has to be Gospel. j/k
Quoting Ossqss:


Could be so ~~~~



But no Carrington Event yet

Very interesting, Thanks!!
Still too many different opinions...

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
You know it. The same source who favored us all with this graphic:




Now now.. remember... vote first...and vote often :)

Using that theory ... its very easy to get more then 100% of eligible voters :)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
You know it. The same source who favored us all with this graphic:




Keep hope alive.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Now now.. remember... vote first...and vote often :)

Using that theory ... its very easy to get more then 100% of eligible voters :)


Nice comeback! LOL


Quoting Seastep:


Keep hope alive.


That's the spirit!
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Actually we orbit the center of the galaxy every 225 million years and we have made at least 15 orbits since life began. Also the last circuit began 225 million years ago and the big extinction at the end of the Permian period was 250 million years ago.

But it's an interesting idea.


Orbits can begin wherever they please -- it's a circle :P
Quoting Ossqss:
Just sayin on the missile front........Would this not be on somebodies radar records? Where are they with the radar data if it is a plane? Let alone the flight plan in restricted air space :) Think about it! Gnite

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7038111n&tag=related;photovideo
Quoting Orcasystems:


Blogger Believes Webcam Image Solves 'Missile' Mystery

Its from Fox news..so it has to be Gospel. j/k


Can't buy that one. Commercial jets do not flame.... intentionally. Am I seeing it wrong?
Quoting hurristat:


Orbits can begin wherever they please -- it's a circle :P


Well an ellipse ;) But a circle has no end they say, so I guess that can be for an ellipse too.
Quoting Seastep:


Keep hope alive.
Yes,we can!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Blogger Believes Webcam Image Solves 'Missile' Mystery

Its from Fox news..so it has to be Gospel. j/k


that was pretty smart of him, nicely done :p
Quoting Neapolitan:

Can you please share with us where you got that 25% number? Because it doesn't seem to jibe with the science which states that between 1960 and now, energy from the sun has been decreasing (likely as a result of increased sunspot activity). At the same time, however, both the oceans and the air have become warmer and warmer. Ergo, something else besides the sun must be causing the Earth's temperature to rise, would you not agree?

Bottom line: while there is absolutely no credible science indicating that the sun is causing the observed increase in global temperature, the known physical properties of greenhouse gasses provide the only real and measurable explanation for and of global warming.

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Sorry about the delay getting back to you I just got home from work. Here's the website I quoted.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ACRIMSAT/acrimsat_2.php

I'm not getting involved with the global warming debate that's on going. But I thought I'd try and provide some hard solar science on the side. :)
Quoting CaptainKid:


Actually, the sunspot cycle has been going down for 10 years. We're at the bottom of a cycle now, or what they hope is a cycle. It should have been going up for months, but hasn't yet.


Solar Minimum and Solar Minimum occur on an 11/22 year cycle (Actually it's closer to 10.7 years). With waxing and waning due to the break down of the magnetic fields on sun. The Solar Maximum is when the magnetic field is at it's weakest point, this is when we see the most sun spot and CME events, as the magnetic field is re-established the process is reversed and we begin to enter the Solar Minimum cycle. It's a well establish 11/22 year cycle that has gone on since our sun was born (more or less).

Solar Cycle
Quoting Seastep:


Can't buy that one. Commercial jets do not flame.... intentionally. Am I seeing it wrong?


and go up at that angle? Really??? someone launched a missle and nobody wants to explain what happened or why...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Old news, indeed--and, more importantly, thoroughly debunked. D'Aloe and Smith--two long-time skeptics/deniers--merely accused NOAA and NASA scientists of manipulating data, and, as anyone who knows a thing about the justice system is aware of, an accusation is not nearly the same as a verdict of guilty.

Now, you've made some very odd logical leaps to get from point A to point B: you bring up an old, debunked story about "data manipulation" as accused by a couple of guys who were subsequently called out for their basic ignorance of data gathering, and then you used that story to come to the conclusion that "...there is no reason not to believe that there is a problem with GW data and/or the presentation thereof."

Huh?

Again--and for the billionth time--the data overwhelmingly support two fundamental facts: 1) the planet is warming, and 2) man's profligate release of greenhouse gasses is a very large part of that.


How about newer data, then:

“Gross” Data Errors in GHCN V2. for Australia

Guest post by Ed Thurstan of Sydney, Australia

Synopsis

This study shows that the NOAA maintained GHCN V2 database contains errors in calculating a Mean temperature from a Maximum and a Minimum. 144 years of data from 36 Australian stations are affected.

Observation 1.

NOAA always rounds up to the nearest tenth of a degree in calculating V2.Mean.

This appears to be poor practice, when the usual approach to neutralising bias is to round to the nearest odd or even number. However, the bias is small, as units are tenths of a degree.

This observation led to the discovery of larger errors.

Observation 2.

The difference between reported V2.mean and the calculated mean can be substantial.

Example: data from GHCN V2 for station 94312

In March 1996 shows that the reported GHCN V2.mean figure is 1.15oC lower than the mean calculated from V2.max and V2.min.

There is no obvious pattern in these errors.

Observation 3.

Unless there is a severe problem in transmitting BOM data to NOAA, then NOAA’s quality control procedures appear to reject a lot of superficially good BOM data.

When this happens, NOAA replace the suspect data with “-9999”, and write a QC.failed record.

GHCN V2.mean now contains many instances where a mean is reported, but the underlying V2.max and/or V2.min are flagged -9999. That is, they are not shown.

Summary

There is a lot of published criticism of the quality of NOAA’s GHCN V2. I now add some more.

In my profession, errors of this sort would cause the whole dataset to be rejected. I am astonished that the much vaunted NOAA quality control procedures did not pick up such gross errors.

The error is compounded in the sense that it propagates via V2 into the GISS database, and other users of GHCN V2.

For more details, and to see the data used:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/10/gross-data-errors-in-ghcn-v2-for-australia/
Call me crazy, but I prefer a warm planet.

Cold is bad. Warm is good. Cold = less precipitable water. Warm = more precipitable water. More precipitable water = more life.

Just saying. Life thrived at roughly +10C hotter than today during the Jurassic and Cretaceous. IPCC worst case is +4C by 2100 and I have trouble believing that, but even so, not a problem. The earth should reach +10C from today and hopefully stay there for longer than anticipated.

Perspective is important.

This is a nice link to explore the periods. Links to the left give a nice, brief summary of each period. Link




Quoting sflawavedude:


and go up at that angle? Really??? someone launched a missle and nobody wants to explain what happened or why...
It's a classified missile launch from a submarine. Of course the government is going to deny it because it's classified.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Blogger Believes Webcam Image Solves 'Missile' Mystery

Its from Fox news..so it has to be Gospel. j/k


Sarcasim......AGAIN AND AGAIN
I'm calling for a South Atlantic Topical Storm for the up and coming tropical storm season in the southern hemisphere
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm calling for a South Atlantic Topical Storm for the up and coming tropical storm season in the southern hemisphere


that'd be cool
377 I cant believe how many sites "source" Anthony Watts. Do you even know the particular climate study where that data was used and what statistical methods were used to eliminate error?


Did watts reference it? - or is things another "conspiracy Blog" of his?

Anthony Watts the "broadcast meteorologist."


Watts cant handle the heavy mathematics of modern climate science. Hes proved that. Hes been proven wrong a few times now and wont admit it.

Besides its a BLOGGER site. If they had a legitimate point they could publish.

Filtering inhomogeneities out of meteorological data is a complicated procedure. Coherent surface air temperature (SAT) datasets like those produced by CRU also require a procedure for combining different (but relatively nearby) record fragments. However, the methods used to undertake these unavoidable tasks are not secret: they have been described in an extensive literature over many decades (e.g. Conrad, 1944; Jones and Moberg, 2003; Peterson et al., 1998, and references therein). Discontinuities may nevertheless persist in data products, but when they are found they are published (e.g. Thompson et al., 2008)
378 yea rise in sea level. ocean acidification, desertification, increased mercury and heavy metal pollution of the oceans and terrestrial habitats, toxic side effects of fossil fuel combustion, extinctions, loss of diversity of lifestyle heritage , increased extreme weather events - thats just of few of the things that will go with a destabilized climate.

I don't want that - should I be FORCED along with everyone else to live in that because people living in societies cant modify their group behavior so it doesn't heavily impact the lives of others?
Quoting JFLORIDA:
378 yea rise in sea level. ocean acidification, desertification, increased mercury and heavy metal pollution of the oceans and terrestrial habitats, toxic side effects of fossil fuel combustion, extinctions, loss of diversity of lifestyle heritage , increased extreme weather events - thats just of few of the things that will go with a destabilized climate.

I don't want that - should I be FORCED along with everyone else to live in that because people living in societies cant modify their group behavior so it doesn't heavily impact the lives of others?
JF, they're not going to change their habits. I'm glad I won't be around in 100 years, cause it won't be very livable.
The thing is eventually the US will move on to other technologies, comparatively quickly. That will leave the developing nations creating pollution at the levels we did with even higher populations. WE will be on the receiving end of it too.

Another thing the US is a world leader in green tech NOW. As we become lax on tax credits and incentives and don't invest in upgrading our infrastructure the ONLY thing we can compete in manufacturing is going to go overseas.

I dont see any benefit economic, environmental or strategic in denial. Its just more expensive mistakes we will end up paying for down the road.

Why not put it in place while we have the upper hand, setting the limits to when we used to be manufacture more as suggested. Also US based regulation will will benefit us ion other ways. It will eventually have to happen - The deniers are going to have us doing it in 30-50 years when other countries will make the rules, basically to the benefit of foreign interests (oil and oil service conglomerates) and dirty energy - like coal.

Its not a very wise move.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
The thing is eventually the US will move on to other technologies, comparatively quickly. That will leave the developing nations creating pollution at the levels we did with even higher populations. WE will be on the receiving end of it too.

Another thing the US is a world leader in green tech NOW. As we become lax on tax credits and incentives and don't invest in upgrading our infrastructure the ONLY thing we can compete in manufacturing is going to go overseas.

I dont see any benefit economic, environmental or strategic in denial. Its just more expensive mistakes we will end up paying for down the road.

Why not put it in place while we have the upper hand, setting the limits to when we used to be manufacture more as suggested. Also US based regulation will will benefit us ion other ways. It will eventually have to happen - The deniers are going to have us doing it in 30-50 years when other countries will make the rules, basically to the benefit of foreign interests (oil and oil service conglomerates) and dirty energy - like coal.

Its not a very wise move.
Infrastructure upgrades don't get votes unfortunately.
In my opinion there will probably never be clean coal.What you say is unfortunately true about tomorrow's polluters. Will China clean up their mess? Possibly.

My greatest hope is for a breakthrough in fusion technology in the not to distant future Perhaps new discoveries at the LHC about the nature of gravity will spill over to fusion research someday.
something to watch on Friday

SPC AC 110601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD... WITH
A STRONG HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING 700 MILES OR SO WEST OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING
DOWNSTREAM SPLIT UPPER FLOW...BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... BUT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
WITHIN AT LEAST A NARROW TONGUE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOWER 6OS SURFACE DEW POINTS PROBABLY WILL
ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY...AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY...PRIOR TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WHILE IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND AN ATTENDANT SIGNIFICANT REMNANT
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGGED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS...THOUGH...THE RELATIVELY
WEAK NATURE OF THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SUGGESTS THAT THE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED...PARTICULARLY WITH
DESTABILIZATION STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK.

...PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CAPE MUCH MORE THAN 250 TO PERHAPS 500
J/KG...DUE TO THE TENDENCY OF THE MID-LEVEL FORCING TO LAG TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...CONCERN STILL EXISTS FOR A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
TIMING OF THE UPPER IMPULSE...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE...REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER THE FASTER OR SLOWER MODELS VERIFY...APPEARS FAVORABLE TO
ALLOW FOR THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM AND WEAKLY DESTABILIZE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES CUT OFF.

..KERR.. 11/11/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0827Z (3:27AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Quoting Seastep:
Call me crazy, but I prefer a warm planet.

Cold is bad. Warm is good. Cold = less precipitable water. Warm = more precipitable water. More precipitable water = more life.

Just saying.


Even if a slightly warmer planet is acceptable, the problem is the speed of the change. This is like arguing that because the mean elevation of the earth is 100 meters above sea level(no idea what the actual value is), this descent is a good thing. If the descent (or ascent in this case) stops at a degree or two higher and some ice melts but no one gets hurt: okay, no big deal.

But what is going on is the equivalent of descending at 100 mph. There is nothing to stop it. The cycles from the original periods were counter balanced. There is as yet no counter balance to this swing.

I hope China or one of the other countries that is assuming the mantle of technological leadership from us will solve the problem. (I think with the Chinese investment in renewable energy, notably electric transportation, they are the most likely candidate now.) I just don't see America ever getting off it's fat butt to actually solve anything. We are too interested in fighting over scraps of political power to actually recognize the real problems, let alone solve them.
The funny thing is that we in the UK get storms that are more intense (in pressure at least) than the "mega-storm" that caused all the fuss over the Midwest a couple of weeks ago, maybe half a dozen times a year - and we're likely to pass them off with "Oh, it's going to be a bit windy this afternoon."

The lowest pressure recorded in the UK was 927mb. Strange these Atlantic depressions aren't they?


Quoting CycloneUK:
Wow. 949mb low:



Quoting TampaSpin:


Sarcasim......AGAIN AND AGAIN


TampaSpin...Now you are REALLY showing your butt...EVERYONE makes fun of Fox news, and he did put a j/k after his statement.
393. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N62W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 21N63W THEN TO 12N71W. FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES E THROUGH
THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT
NIGHT TO 22N55W TO 18N62W TO 16N75W TO NEW 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
12N79W. FRONT DISSIPATES SUN AND THE WEAK LOW PRES REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH MON.
394. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Morning All, Seems like possible Virginie is showing up on the hurricane models a lot better than puala and richard ever did. On the 00z GFS is also hinting at walter.
Bomb was set to explode over NYC but the bomb foiled while on a UPS Cargo plane. Another bomb was found in Dubia as well on a plane heading to the US. Very serious stuff happening right now and apparenting OBAMA got wind of this and took his family out of the US for awhile. These bombs are Yemen based and are being targeted for the NE cities. Could be the reason for a missil launch off California.
Quoting greentortuloni:
Quoting Seastep:
Call me crazy, but I prefer a warm planet.

Cold is bad. Warm is good. Cold = less precipitable water. Warm = more precipitable water. More precipitable water = more life.

Just saying.


Even if a slightly warmer planet is acceptable, the problem is the speed of the change. This is like arguing that because the mean elevation of the earth is 100 meters above sea level(no idea what the actual value is), this descent is a good thing. If the descent (or ascent in this case) stops at a degree or two higher and some ice melts but no one gets hurt: okay, no big deal.

But what is going on is the equivalent of descending at 100 mph. There is nothing to stop it. The cycles from the original periods were counter balanced. There is as yet no counter balance to this swing.

I hope China or one of the other countries that is assuming the mantle of technological leadership from us will solve the problem. (I think with the Chinese investment in renewable energy, notably electric transportation, they are the most likely candidate now.) I just don't see America ever getting off it's fat butt to actually solve anything. We are too interested in fighting over scraps of political power to actually recognize the real problems, let alone solve them.
Agree with you a 100%
By Duncan Gardham, Security Correspondent 8:00PM GMT 10 Nov 2010

The device, hidden in a desktop printer, used a disassembled mobile phone as a timer which was set for 10.30am.

“If the device had not been removed from the aircraft the activation could have occurred over the eastern seaboard of the US,” the Metropolitan Police said in a statement.

It was intercepted at East Midlands airport after an intelligence tip off and removed from the UPS cargo plane.

Intelligence agencies believe that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsular was targeting passenger planes with hundreds of people on board, because the bomb was carried on a scheduled flight on the first leg from Yemen.

Ensuring that it exploded over land would cause more casualties on the ground and US intelligence officers believe that an earlier parcel sent to an Islamic bookshop in Chicago was planned as a dry run to get the timing right.

White House spokesman Nicholas Shapiro said: "We greatly appreciate the highly professional nature of the UK investigation and the spirit of partnership with which UK authorities have pursued this matter."

The alert has exposed the vulnerability of passenger aircraft which carry 60 per cent of unaccompanied cargo into the US.

The plan to blow up aircraft as they came in to land in the US has echoes of the trans-Atlantic airline plot of 2006 in which British suicide bombers were planning to attack at least seven aircraft flying to north America using homemade liquid bombs.

The real device was taken apart just under three hours before it was set to detonate but explosives officers from Scotland Yard did not realise at the time that they had defused a live bomb.

The UPS parcel flight from Cologne to Chicago landed at East Midlands airport to refuel at 2.13am on Friday October 29, according to new information released by the police.

Officers from the Metropolitan Police Counter Terrorism Command received a tip-off as it stood on the tarmac at 3.28am and scrambled to make the 120 mile journey up the M1.

In the meantime it was removed from the plane by cargo handlers, taken to a warehouse and cordoned by Leicestershire Police.

The cargo plane took off at 4.20am heading for Chicago and would probably have been over Canada or the East coast of the US, depending on the route taken, when the device was set to go off six hours later.

However the police said it was “disrupted” at East Midlands Airport by explosive officers during the initial examination when they removed the printer cartridge from the printer at approximately 7.40am.

The officers did not find the 400g of PETN explosive inside the printer cartridge and gave the all clear at around 10am.

Meanwhile MI6 went back to the source of the tip-off in Saudi Arabia to get further information and the explosives were eventually discovered at around 2pm.

A similar device was found around the same time in Dubai that had also been sent from Yemen.

Inside each parcel was a printer and some souvenirs and books designed to make it look as though the package was being sent by a student.

The bombs were addressed to two synagogues in Chicago, one of which was the former address of the Or Chadash congregation, which serves lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgendered Jews and their families.

The return addresses given were two English language schools in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, the Yemen American Institute for Languages-Computer Management, and the American Center for Training and Development.


Strieber made the following observations:

•Based on the contrails it either had to be an airplane or an extremely large missile. However, contrails can do strange things and the video is difficult to see. The size of the contrail was comparable to the contrail created by a trident missile.

•The fact that officials announced so quickly that it wasn't a national security threat suggests that someone somewhere knows what it was and they're not yet willing to say.

•If it was intentionally or accidentally launched by another country, the navy would be crawling all over the area right now but there is no one investigating anything out there.

•It could have been an accidental launch by a Soviet or Russian missile boat because they're notorious for these types of mistakes. However, they generally like to keep their subs beneath the Arctic ice cap so they can remain undetected. They rarely come in this close.
Both Strieber and Smith said they had heard of similar incidents occurring in the Gulf area and in Newfoundland in June of this year and a caller to the show said he had witnessed the same type of event over Catalina just last week.

Smith stated that, while there were no reports of ships in the area that would be large enough to launch such a huge missile, it is possible that it was launched from a standard ship. He says that the Iran has been testing launching SCUD missiles from cargo ships.

Very Dangerous situation as bombs are being sent on planes to the US from Europe and the Middle East. Could be the very reason why a missile was launched off California.
And another portrait of this stormy lady with greetings from Germany. In a hurry, Barbara

Quoting Jeff9641:
Very Dangerous situation as bombs are being sent on planes to the US from Europe and the Middle East. Could be the very reason why a missile was launched off California.
This such a compact bombing plan. They must've planned this for months. THIS IS SO CRAZY! on veteran's day, i find this so ridiculously serious. i can't believe my eyes that this is all happening.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
This such a compact bombing plan. They must've planned this for months. THIS IS SO CRAZY! on veteran's day, i find this so ridiculously serious. i can't believe my eyes that this is all happening.


Yeah, Obama and his family are apparently gone as Yemen appears to behind this.

Al Qaeda in Yemen behind 'credible terrorist threat' against U.S., Obama says

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/29/hazmat-incident-at-philadelphia-airport/
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah, Obama and his family are apparently gone as Yemen appears to behind this.

Al Qaeda in Yemen behind 'credible terrorist threat' against U.S., Obama says

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/29/hazmat-incident-at-philadelphia-airport/
so apparently obama knew about this along time before we did.
The California Missile thing is just a plane, reported by FOX.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:


TampaSpin...Now you are REALLY showing your butt...EVERYONE makes fun of Fox news, and he did put a j/k after his statement.


As you are again. OnlY left wing LIBERALS do....JUST THE TRUTH......POOOF!
From the first moment I saw it, I knew it was a jet contrail. No missile, no UFO, no comet, no meteor. Nope, nothing more exotic than a perfectly normal, everyday, garden-variety, ho-hum jet contrail. I've seen them a million times while living in southern California and south Florida, both places with a large volume a high-altitude flyovers. Here's a webpage created before this week's "event" that very clearly demonstrates the absolute non-mystery of the whole thing.

Yes, the military could have been "so quick" to dismiss the thing as an ordinary jet contrail because they wanted to cover up a conspiracy of some sort--or they could have been "so quick" to dismiss the thing as an ordinary jet contrail because it was, you know, an ordinary jet contrail.

As I've said about other things here--GW, hurricane forecasting, etc.--scientific fact always triumphs. Always.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so apparently obama knew about this along time before we did.
The California Missile thing is just a plane, reported by FOX.


From being in the army for many years and a military background that was not a plane. I can assure you of that and remember the government will not leak to much information out right now. That was a missile I promise you that.
Quoting TampaSpin:


As you are again. OnlY left wing LIBERALS do....JUST THE TRUTH......POOOF!


Hey TampaSpin, it's funny how Obama finds out about all of this and leaves the country huh!
Quoting Jeff9641:


From being in the army for many years and a military background that was not a plane. I can assure you of that and remember the government will not leak to much information out right now. That was a missile I promise you that.
now that im seeing it again, i can agree it could be either one. FOX Seems to have bought it. lol
Anyway im going to get out for a while. Be back later.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Bomb was set to explode over NYC but the bomb foiled while on a UPS Cargo plane. Another bomb was found in Dubia as well on a plane heading to the US. Very serious stuff happening right now and apparenting OBAMA got wind of this and took his family out of the US for awhile. These bombs are Yemen based and are being targeted for the NE cities. Could be the reason for a missil launch off California.

Obama's current trip abroad was centered around the G-20 summit, which was planned many, many months ago, long before Al Qaeda's latest--and, again, foiled--attempt to take over the world by sending a letter bomb.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Obama's current trip abroad was centered around the G-20 summit, which was planned many, many months ago, long before Al Qaeda's latest--and, again, foiled--attempt to take over the world by sending a letter bomb.


We got lucky this time man! That is some serious crap going on and if we don't put a stop to this now then one of these plots will go through and it's just a matter of time. We also don't know how many other bombs are being sent over to the US for an attack either.
Quoting barbamz:
"Carmen" approaching us ...



Source: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T103151125

Looks like Carmen is stopping first in the UK to have her afternoon "cuppa tea" :O) before she slams into Western Europe.
Quoting barbamz:
And another portrait of this stormy lady with greetings from Germany. In a hurry, Barbara


Is that a windstorm?
Quoting Jeff9641:


We got lucky this time man! That is some serious crape going on and if we don't put a stop to this now then one of these plots will go through and it's just a matter of time. We also don't know how many other bombs are being sent over to the US for an attack either.


Calm down, Jeff
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Calm down, Jeff


I'm pissed today! I was shocked to hear this last night after work.
Let me click my heels three times and say...."Their is no place like home, no place like home, no place like home"....

This is not the McLaughlin Group...This is a weather blog....

Oh, look at the new lil' area of convection that moved off of Venezuela.
Quoting TomasTomas:


This is a weather blog, not a conspiracy blog. Take your stupid rants and theories somewhere else.


Alright JFV go somewhere else with your I love Tomas.
Going to be a big storm for the USA

Ugh....I can't learn how to quote people automatically.

Daren you Neapolitan :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Going to be a big storm for the USA



Looks like the seed is in place off South America for Virginie to form in a few days. Looks like the GFS maybe onto something.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Going to be a big storm for the USA


And we can blame this on Levi!!!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Alright JFV go somewhere else with your I love Tomas.


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.

Blog title: Caribbean disturbance 93L no threat; remembering the Edmund Fitzgerald storm

Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the ! button and ignored.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is a weather blog, not a conspiracy blog. Take your stupid rants and theories somewhere else.


The problem is bombs being sent over in envolopes is fact and not a conspiracy. The fact that the Government has leaked that much means a lot.
428. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting TampaSpin:


As you are again. OnlY left wing LIBERALS do....JUST THE TRUTH......POOOF!
The GEM still has our possible Virginie out there..Link The NAM has it as well...
383. JFLORIDA 1:26 AM CST on November 11, 2010

"377 I cant believe how many sites "source" Anthony Watts. Do you even know the particular climate study where that data was used and what statistical methods were used to eliminate error?"

So because it came from Watt's site, that AUTOMATICALLY makes it wrong?

Did you read the post?

In case you didn't, a recap:

"...The error is compounded in the sense that it propagates via V2 into the GISS database, and other users of GHCN V2..."

You know, GISS. The most accurate surface temperature data base because they ESTIMATE (extrapolate) the Arctic contribution from stations 6oo miles away.

And remember, we're only about .6 degrees above "normal" (according to GISS).

So what studies are effected? Any study that uses GISS as their database.