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Caribbean disturbance 93L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:59 PM GMT on November 04, 2008

An area of disturbed weather (93L) a few hundred miles east of the Nicaraguan coast, is growing more organized, and has the potential to develop into a tropical storm this week. This morning's QuikSCAT pass revealed that the circulation center near 12N 81W is better defined and is more circular. However, visible satellite images show that the heaviest thunderstorm activity is about 200 miles to the north of the center, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. It appears that the center of circulation is now attempting to relocate near the heaviest thunderstorms, somewhere near 14N 81W. This relocation will make last night's model runs a poor judge of how 93L might develop. The disturbance has been drifting west-northwest to northwest over the past 18 hours. Wind shear is a moderate 15 knots, and heavy thunderstorm activity has shown a moderate increase in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

The forecast
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10-20 knots, over the southern Caribbean during the next three days. Water temperatures are warm, 29.5°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are favorable conditions for intensification, and both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will become a hurricane, with the HWRF predicting a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS intensity model predicts only a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds. I give 93L a 40% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Steering currents are weak, but a slow northwest motion to a point just offshore the Nicaragua-Honduras border is likely through Thursday. At that time, a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast. The models are split on whether this trough will be strong enough to pull 93L northward. The GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models predict the trough will turn 93L northward then northeastward, bringing the storm near the Cayman Islands by Saturday and Jamaica by Sunday. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models disagree, bringing 93L ashore over northern Nicaragua by Friday, and keeping the storm trapped near the north coast of Honduras through Monday. Given the probable center re-formation 200 miles to the north currently underway, the more northerly threat to the Cayman Islands and Jamaica appears to be the more likely scenario.

Given the current increasing trend in organization, I believe 93L will become a tropical depression on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Paloma by Thursday. NHC is giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras are at risk of heavy rains from 93L beginning Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches are likely through Thursday in the region. These heavy rains may spread westward to the Belize border by Friday, if the storm resists being pulled northward by the trough. Panama and Costa Rica should receive only another 1-2 inches. Heavy rains will likely move into the Cayman Islands and Jamaica on Wednesday or Thursday, and may affect Cuba by Friday and Haiti by Saturday. Currently, no models are showing a threat to Florida or the Bahamas from 93L, but that could change with the next set of model runs, after the center re-formation is taken into account. The first Hurricane Hunter flight into 93L is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

Links to follow
Wundermap for 16N 84W

I'll have an update Wednesday morning, or later today if there's a major change to report. It's time to go vote!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good morning folks,

I have been voting for a long time (if I told you how long I would have to kill you). This is the most exciting election in which I have ever participated . Though SC went McCain, Charleston County went Obama.

For those of you who received emails warning about the evils of Obama, I checked each with snopes (A friend sent them to me for giggles). They were all debunked (even the emails that said snopes would confirm) So, relax, the anit-christ has not arrived

High 60's and cloudy - was misty and breezy while I stood in line yesterday. Vote time 2 hours 15 minutes. Everyone was in a fine mood, and understood the unprecedented numbers voting. How long did it take y'all to vote?
Quoting Robin08:

Orca I have respected you but I understand btw1982 frustration. My husband and I own a small business under O'bama there will be more unemployment. em>
I think Orca was objecting to the high level of animosity and lack of veracity in btw's post. YOUR post is sane, and lays out what are reasonably valid reasons for concern on your part. While I don't think you have as much to worry about as a small businessperson as, say, a Fortune500 company does when it comes to taxes, you are not vilifying Obama's PERSON and implying that he won't "be around" to run for re-election. It's not the disagreement, it's the tone.
Quoting Robin08:
Sorry for the rant but very frustrating. Started out in business in 1995 with just my husband and I. Now have 25 employees who depend on their job but have to do what I can to survive. Will see how it goes.
I think you are going to make it. Now that you will HAVE to live with Obama as president, I STRONGLY suggest you go and read through his tax and economic plans. There are three or four really good articles that compare the tax, health, and economic policies proposed by Obama and McCain that do a good job of explaining what each intended to do in fairly straightforward terms.

I know you feel pessimistic about things, but maybe they won't be as bad as you think. (U can tell I am a glass-half-full person LOL.)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think Orca was objecting to the high level of animosity and lack of veracity in btw's post. YOUR post is sane, and lays out what are reasonably valid reasons for concern on your part. While I don't think you have as much to worry about as a small businessperson as, say, a Fortune500 company does when it comes to taxes, you are not vilifying Obama's PERSON and implying that he won't "be around" to run for re-election. It's not the disagreement, it's the tone.


Agreed.. 100%
Its one thing to disagree with the results with a valid retort. Its another to make a post like btw, which is based on BS and personal prejudice.

I own a few small business's and trust me.. it hurts right now.. and its going to hurt even more for you guys for the next year or so. The mess down there right now is unbelievable.
#502 - Lovely, well-stated
498 Orca
You're on dude.

495 Surfmom
Why would I put my boat on a boat that sinks???
That's like getting on a plane that crashes.
:>)
out for a while - everyone is at their feeding stations....cats, dog, chickens are squawking, and burly young males attacking the cinnamon coffee...

The sun is back -- and me too in a while

and yes we & the world have a big mess to clean up.....we live in fascinating times.....
Quoting theshepherd:
498 Orca
You're on dude.

495 Surfmom
Why would I put my boat on a boat that sinks???
That's like getting on a plane that crashes.
:>)


Don't forget jumping out of a perfectly good aeroplane for no apparent reason.

Now there is a business that would thrive.. owning a Ferry service to Cuba.. cha ching.

OK.. does anyone else see the track of 93l shifting slowly north of the suggested tracks?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Agreed.. 100%
Its one thing to disagree with the results with a valid retort. Its another to make a post like btw, which is based on BS and personal prejudice.

I own a few small business's and trust me.. it hurts right now.. and its going to hurt even more for you guys for the next year or so. The mess down there right now is unbelievable.
To me, this is a troll thing. People who will come on here and post that kind of stuff about Obama or McCain will be just as comfortable posting similar vilifying comments about blog members and generally turning the blog into a morass of dogfights.

You know, until this morning I had a completely empty ignore list. Congrats, BTW, u are a winner!!!!
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning folks,

I have been voting for a long time (if I told you how long I would have to kill you). This is the most exciting election in which I have ever participated . Though SC went McCain, Charleston County went Obama.

For those of you received the emails warning about the evils of Obama, I checked each with snopes (A friend sent them to me for giggles). They were all debunked (even the emails that said snopes would confirm) So, relax, the anit-christ has not arrived

High 60's and cloudy - was misty and breezy while I stood in line yesterday. Vote time 2 hours 15 minutes. Everyone was in a fine mood, and understood the unprecedented numbers voting. How long did it take y'all to vote?


Here in Columbia, SC i went to the polls around 3:00pm and i was only in line for 38 minutes. Now a friend of mine voted at the same location in the morning and he was in line for 3 hours :-0 ... I think the elections went well. I was one of those voters that really didnt like either person but i do think we will be better off without Bush.. just my point of view
Oh, and before I leave (or get banned for total politics . . . lol) I'm not very happy with potential hurricane Paloma crossing Cuba into Bahamian waters. . . . .
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
305 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 12Z WED NOV 05 2008 - 00Z FRI NOV 07 2008

THERE WILL BE THREE WEATHER SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE LOWER 48 OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE EAST... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWARD REACHING A POINT ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR THE WEEKS END. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER MOST OF THE HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL BE JUST ALONG AND OFFSHORE
THE MID ATLANTIC TO LOWER NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. LIGHTER RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED UP TO ABOUT 200 MILES AWAY FROM THE COAST ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD... STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS... CURRENTLY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
WILL FOLLOW NORTHWARD ALONG THE SHORE... TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LOW.

OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY... BRINGING A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
WITH IT. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WERE
IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TODAY... BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY. AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO... THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WHERE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE TO
SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION. A WINTRY MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS
WELL AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTH AND
SOUTH DAKOTA... WITH SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS... NORTHERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS OF OVER 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... MAKING FOR VERY POOR VISIBILITY.
MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM CAN BE FOUND IN THE HPC
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION.

THE OTHER STORY WITH THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS... IT APPEARS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO COMBINE WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT
TO DEVELOP A LINE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING FROM OKLAHOMA INTO
KANSAS... INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES... LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EXPAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

THE THIRD SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOWER 48 WILL BE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS
EVENING... DRASTICALLY RAISING SNOW LEVELS AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON BY TONIGHT. COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY
LOCKED IN AT THE SURFACE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON...
BUT AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION... A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLD POCKETS OVER THE
NORTHWEST.
Well... as expected 93L is starting to look more like a TD. I will give it another 12 to 24 hours to get it self a bit more organized before I could declare it a TD.

Current Outflow is improving on the W perifery and expanding as the ULAC gets better established in this region. Finally, we have some good low level convergence starting to setup along with a pretty decent mid level vortex.

Definitely it will be interesting to see how things play out. In regards movement I will still call a N to NW fashion for the time being as there's still discrepancies in regards the building High accross the SE states.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Oh, and before I leave (or get banned for total politics . . . lol) I'm not very happy with potential hurricane Paloma crossing Cuba into Bahamian waters. . . . .


I have to admit.. if you look at the models.. they seem to have an intensity problem.. at least i hope they do.. some are showing it being very intense.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008

GULF OF MEXICO...THIS COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH OFF
THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI (SLIGHTLY LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED). THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE REGION
BY SAT AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OR LIFTS BACK N SUN. NWP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN ONLY SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N 20
KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIKELY BECAUSE THE UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES ZONALLY ACROSS THE CONUS RATHER THAN DIGGING SE.


CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 14N82W HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE S AND W
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO
SPREAD OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 74W-84W. THIS FEATURE
HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (20-50%) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS FORECAST...THE LOW HAS BEEN ON A
SLOW N-NW TRACK AND THAT CONTINUED MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NE AND ACCELERATE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RECENT QSCAT
AND ASCAT PASSES REVEAL 20-25 KT WINDS GENERALLY W OF AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH LINE FROM 9N81W TO 19N80W. GIVEN THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND OBSERVED INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...EVENING SHIFT INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TO 20-30 KT AND
7-11 FT IN PRODUCTS OVER THE NW ZONE. WILL LIKELY KEEP SIMILAR
WORDING IN NEXT PACKAGE.

THE ONLY OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS (E 15-20 KT) ARE
CONFINED TO THE N PORTION OF THE TROP N ATLC ZONE AND NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SW N ATLC...
OCCLUDED LOW PRES HAS SHIFTED N OF THE AREA NEAR THE NC COAST
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO 27N65W
AND A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA. SFC OBS AND A
PARTIAL QSCAT PASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT E TO SE 20-30 KT WINDS N
OF THE WARM FRONT. NW TO N 20-25 KT WINDS WERE NOTED EARLIER
OFF THE N FL COAST...HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS...SEAS WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE THROUGH THU DUE TO NLY SWELL. BROAD NW
WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THU.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT AND IT
WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW...WHICH MAY
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS SUN.
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR
14N82W WILL DRIFT N TO NEAR 15N83W LATE TODAY...16N83W LATE
THU...18N83W LATE FRI...20N81W LATE SAT BEFORE ACCELERATING
NE AND CROSSING CUBA SUN. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
LATE SUN.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
430 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008

.SYNOPSIS...LOW N OF AREA HAS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM IT TO
31N69W TO 28N65W. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT N WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS MOVING OUT OF AREA LATE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SAME LOW TO 31N72W TO 21N76W WILL MOVE
E ALONG...31N69W 21N76W THU MORNING ...22N65W 21N76W FRI
MORNING. THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT N TO 22N65W TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS SAT MORNING AND FROM 25N65W TO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE
FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO 29N81W SAT
EVENING AND 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA SUN EVENING.
05/1145 UTC 14.1N 82.3W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic
519. KBH
elections are over, congrats to all, unlucky for some,.. now what about the weather, is hurricane season over as yet?
Have a good day folks - Will be checking back in to see how 93L is progressing.



Quoting KBH:
elections are over, congrats to all, unlucky for some,.. now what about the weather, is hurricane season over as yet?


Umm 93L?
BBL, gardens need attention.
93L not looking like it will effect FL....yeah!

But I feel bad for those is it going to effect.

Orca...what models are showing strong intensity? I thought it was only going to be a TD or weak TS..
524. KBH
oh yeah, just seeing some TS activity, don't think it has the staying power to provide anything much but heavy rains,.. that could be a major problem for that area as I am sure they have large areas of swampy lands from a few weeks ago
Good Morning Senior Chief
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
93L not looking like it will effect FL....yeah!

But I feel bad for those is it going to effect.

Orca...what models are showing strong intensity? I thought it was only going to be a TD or weak TS..


Link

Link

Link

Link

Deep convection is now building right over the center of 93L for the first time. In the absence of moving onshore Nicaragua I expect this will go on to be classified a TD later today. The 850 vort signature is very strong and both convergence and divergence are well established. High pressure is sitting right over the system and water is warm and deep.

Every ingredient in favour of additional development is present.
Orca-Except for the last having 93l coming close to the keys, Florida..for now seems to be clear.
Quoting kmanislander:
Deep convection is now building right over the center of 93L for the first time. In the absence of moving onshore Nicaragua I expect this will go on to be classified a TD later today. The 850 vort signature is very strong and both convergence and divergence are well established. High pressure is sitting right over the system and water is warm and deep.

Every ingredient in favour of additional development is present.


Look at Frame 15 on the GFDL model, 111 Knots before Cuban landfall
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca-Except for the last having 93l coming close to the keys, Florida..for now seems to be clear.


Thats true, only the CMC takes it close to the Keys & S Florida
Orca, thanks. That only depend of the strength of the trough, correct? And if so..do you know the strength and timing of it?
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca, thanks. That only depend of the strength of the trough, correct? And if so..do you know the strength and timing of it?


I wish.. way out of my pay grade.. thats a question for guys like StormW and the forecasters.
ok now I see orca. thanks! :)

There sure is a difference in 2 of models vs. the other 2.
Gotcha Orca-thanks.
The CMC is the only one that does not look to making it very strong and the path is different also.
529. Orcasystems 1:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

I sure hope that is overdone !
I sure don't like they way the models are all coming in agreement on the track of 93L , doesn't bode well for us here in The Caymans.
Quoting kmanislander:
529. Orcasystems 1:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

I sure hope that is overdone !


Basically has to go over your house to get there doesn't it?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Look at Frame 15 on the GFDL model, 111 Knots before Cuban landfall


Do NOT like that!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Basically has to go over your house to get there doesn't it?


Not really based upon the run you posted. The closet point to Grand Cayman shown by the GFDL is about 40 miles West of us. The pass near our sister islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman is closer at a higher intensity.

Until it develops though I take the models with several grains of salt.
Quoting kmanislander:
529. Orcasystems 1:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

I sure hope that is overdone !




GFDL is the yellow one
Quoting SSideBrac:


Do NOT like that!!


I hope that model is the EXTREME OUTLIER... And that it stays away from Florida.
New Blog
541. Orcasystems 2:37 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

What I would be concerned about is that a storng system coming up from the SW would throw high seas and surge onshore the West coast which is our prime 7 mile beach with all the multi million dollar condos and hotels like the Ritz etc.

The West coast is a half moon that would trap water incoming and drive it across the narrow isthmus that connects Goerge Town to West Bay. At certain spots that isthmus is only a few hundred feet wide before you hit water on the East side of it being the North Sound.

There would also be a high risk of substantial damage to the capitol of George Town which has open deep water all the way in to the shore on the SW coast.

This will have to be watched very carefully.
heloo every one, stopping in to check and i dont like what i am seeing!
beats me why they take so long to clasify systems, this 93l is a td by virtue of all ingreidents,kmanislander it has always been a fear of mine that a sytem hits from the south i share the same concerns you and i know what a strong Nwester does to town so just imagine magnifying this by 3 brrrrr!!, lets hope it does not develop that strong and only be a rain event
547. 7544
been watching this the last 3 days and it keeps bringing 93l further north each day before it turns ne and now with this run it puts 93l right over southern part fla could this be where the other modeles will follow in the next run .

Link
176 above

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Decided that I'll be returning to weather now after taking some needed time off to deal with my emotions and the loss of a friend in a car accident.

Now, I see that Invest 93L is the only game in town. In performing some quick analysis here, this disturbance has a well-defined low level circulation with increasing convection building near the center. During the day, an upper-level anticyclone has become established over the system, providing for better outflow and more favorable shear, as evident by the latest CIMSS Shear Analysis Product. You can also see this upper-level anticyclone using the Water Vapor Loop. Also in analyzing the latest water vapor imagery, I have been noticing moisture continuing to increase, which suggests that additional convection will build throughout the night.

Now, in regards to the latest computer model runs, I will have to see further runs as these are the first runs coming through with the center relocation that occured late this morning. As with all invests, I find it hard to trust model guidance with both track and intensity since, as so perfectly exemplified today, the center positions can always relocate around, and often do so when a system is in this stage of development. So, until this becomes Tropical Depression 17, I will continue taking model guidance with a grain of salt.

But, all in all, based upon the current satellite trends and latest data, I'm in high agreement with Dr. Masters that this disturbance will develop further and quite possibly into Tropical Storm Paloma before the weekend.
204 above

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Thanks. He was only 19 years old; my age. Such a nice person. In my mind, the worst thing is that he was the passenger in the car and the driver survived. Been quite an emotional past week for me. Thats why I've been absent for quite some time from the blogs.