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Caribbean disturbance 93L continues to grow more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:42 PM GMT on November 05, 2008

An area of disturbed weather (93L), a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, continues to slowly organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass revealed that the circulation center is broad and ill-defined, and the satellite noted winds of about 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms. Visible satellite images show that heavy thunderstorm activity has shown a moderate increase in intensity and areal coverage this morning. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, but there is no evidence of low-level spiral bands forming yet.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

The forecast
Wind shear has dropped to a low 5-10 knots this morning, and is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5-15 knots, over the next three days. The phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation has changed to positive over the Western Caribbean over the past few days, and this should act to reduce wind shear and enhance the storm's updrafts and instability. Nearly all of the tropical cyclones that have formed in the Atlantic this season have formed under a positive Madden-Julian phase. Water temperatures are warm, 29.5°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are favorable conditions for intensification, and both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will become a hurricane, with the HWRF predicting a major hurricane. The SHIPS intensity model is less aggressive, predicting a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds by Saturday. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane, and a 20% chance of becoming a major hurricane. These odds will increase tomorrow if 93L can avoid passing close enough to the northeast coast of Nicaragua for significant weakening due to land interaction. This storm has the potential to imitate Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Michelle formed in the same region at the same time of year, and took just three days to intensify from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane. Michelle made landfall in central Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane as it passed through the Bahamas.

A slow north-northwest motion to a point just offshore the Nicaragua-Honduras border is likely for 93L through Thursday. At that time, a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast. Only one major model, the NOGAPS, predicts that this trough will be too weak to turn 93L northwards, and I am discounting this solution at present. The other five major models agree on a northward motion, bringing 93L near the Cayman Islands or western Jamaica on Saturday, followed by a northeast turn. On Sunday morning, 93L should make landfall in Western Cuba, then pass through the central or eastern Bahamas on Sunday afternoon as it accelerates to the northeast.

Given the current increasing trend in organization, I believe 93L will become a tropical depression tonight or Thursday morning. NHC is giving 93L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. There is the potential that 93L could enter a period of rapid intensification on Saturday, bringing it to hurricane status. Residents of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and western Cuba should anticipate the possibility of a hurricane affecting them Saturday and Sunday. If 93L crosses Cuba as expected and moves into the Bahamas, it will weaken due to the interaction with land and the presence of very high wind shear of 30-50 knots just north of Cuba. These effects should weaken the storm by at least 40 mph before it passes through the Bahamas. The HWRF model predicts 93L could be a Category 2 hurricane in the Bahamas, but I think a tropical storm is more likely.

Northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras are at risk of heavy rains from 93L today through Friday morning. Total rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches are likely. Rains of 1-2 inches fell last night in Jamaica, and heavy rains of 4-8 inches should affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Thursday through Saturday. The first Hurricane Hunter flight into 93L is scheduled for this afternoon.

Links to follow
Wundermap for 16N 83W

I'll have an update this afternoon when the new model runs are in and the Hurricane Hunter data is available.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Jeff
Good morning. Thanks Doc.

93L's really getting it's groove on this morning.

Wouldn't be surprised if recon finds TS this afternoon if the trend continues.
Thanks docta!!!!!!!....WHAT A NIGHT IN AMERICAN HISTORY,I WAS ACTUALLY CRYING DURNING THE SPEACH LAST NIGHT...GOD BLESS AMERICA....AND OUR RESPECT ACROSS THE WORLD BEING REESTABLISHED!!!!...IN AMERICA ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!!!
Thanks doc...
Wow did not think I would have to worry about boards in November...and not sure how much more rain we can handle!!...my hope is this skirts to our south and goes in between us and our friends to the SE.
Doc looking forward to your next update...
Orca
I'm headed to W Georgia for a long weekend of fun,frolic,fishing and hunting.
I'll leave my "get over it button" with you.
Enjoy the homegrown mangos.
Thx... Doc.

Current Sat representation looks pretty good and LLC is starting to become more evident... so I'm still looking at having a TD in 12 to 24hours as I previously stated.
From the old blog that got cut just as I posted this.

What I would be concerned about is that a strong system coming up from the SW would throw high seas and surge onshore the West coast which is our prime 7 mile beach with all the multi million dollar condos and hotels like the Ritz etc.

The West coast is a half moon that would trap water incoming and drive it across the narrow isthmus that connects Goerge Town to West Bay. At certain spots that isthmus is only a few hundred feet wide before you hit water on the East side of it being the North Sound.

There would also be a high risk of substantial damage to the capitol of George Town which has open deep water all the way in to the shore on the SW coast.

This will have to be watched very carefully.
Quoting kmanislander:
From the old blog that got cut just as I posted this.

What I would be concerned about is that a strong system coming up from the SW would throw high seas and surge onshore the West coast which is our prime 7 mile beach with all the multi million dollar condos and hotels like the Ritz etc.

The West coast is a half moon that would trap water incoming and drive it across the narrow isthmus that connects Goerge Town to West Bay. At certain spots that isthmus is only a few hundred feet wide before you hit water on the East side of it being the North Sound.

There would also be a high risk of substantial damage to the capitol of George Town which has open deep water all the way in to the shore on the SW coast.

This will have to be watched very carefully.


On the present track.. your definitely on the dirty side for that to happen.
back later
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Area of Interest ... Invest 93L
Satellite Picture ... Invest 93L

Present Satellite Area of Interest ... Atlantic Seaboard
Do NOT like that track aiming for the Caymans.... they are just too little... can't say I like watching it aim for FL either... but we have more high ground to run to.
13. surfmom... hehe

I agree, of course no wishcasting is intended.
Quoting surfmom:
Do NOT like that track aiming for the Caymans.... they are just too little... can't say I like watching it aim for FL either... but we have more high ground to run to.

Going to do a "dirty dive" back to Cayman Brac (high ground there and a bunker office) from Grand Cayman - cutting short a work trip on the big island as 93L for some reason raises the hairs on the back of my neck.
This is all going to screw up Pirates Week which some years ago got pushed to this time inNov to avoid the dirty Hurricane Season weather - oh wel??!!
Quoting surfmom:
Do NOT like that track aiming for the Caymans.... they are just too little... can't say I like watching it aim for FL either... but we have more high ground to run to.


Umm aren't you basically flat also.. geography wise?
69 degrees Air, 68 degrees water partly cloudy here in SRQ.. there will be NO waves in the Gomex -- it's set-up fishermen, kayaks and geriatrics with float devices...East Coast is cranking......

chickens seem to have taken some time off - cool weather & molting feather.....usually 6 eggs everyday -- unless I got a few hiding them again.

With the approach of cool weather in SWFL and all fruit off the trees (except oranges & limes) -- pruning and trimming must be done. A certain someone will receive the last of the mango crop. Today I peel all the ripes that are left and freeze for those dreary winter months...to eat when I long for summer.
Grrrr domestics are calling....
Flatlanders we be Orca---- but we do have more room to run.
Thanks! Hi everyone! HWRF is predicting a cat. 4, then a cat. 3 landfall on Cuba! It's Ike all over again! (from Cuba's point of view) It should weaken after hitting Cuba, however, which is what most models are predicting. Also, there's this interesting subtropical-looking system east of Cape Hatteras. Most models are predicting it to intensify and momentarily become trapped under the high.
Quoting surfmom:
Flatlanders we be Orca---- but we do have more room to run.


Run? on Purpose? no one chasing you with a big stick? Why?

Ahh last beer in a bucket of ice would do it :)
Pirates Week -- just another reason to love those islands... it was then & there I discovered I was not alone w/my obsession.

Also had the most wonderful & memorable dive w/ my #1 there. That memory really sustained me through his years of taking my heart and dragging it through the streets & asphalt. There were these incredible "sea flowers"... He'd dive down and touch them and i think they would open....and all these huge tarpon... I reach out and pulled off a scale -- still have it. The snorkling was like being in a disneymovie...very powerful memory -- the beauty etched deep
06Z GFS doesn't forsee to much of 93L. Dissipates it before crossing Cuba.
SurfMom - u should try making chutney with some of those left over mangoes - yummy!!
22 - SurfMom

yep - much beauty still here - places and people. GCM a bit (??) overbuilt now but the 2 Sister Islands are still gems
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Thanks! Hi everyone! HWRF is predicting a cat. 4, then a cat. 3 landfall on Cuba! It's Ike all over again! (from Cuba's point of view) It should weaken after hitting Cuba, however, which is what most models are predicting. Also, there's this interesting subtropical-looking system east of Cape Hatteras. Most models are predicting it to intensify and momentarily become trapped under the high.


Holy ****

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Of course, the HWRF as usual is insane; if it had been right even half the time this year, we would have had half a dozen Category 5s (including a few Gilbert/Wilma-intensity storms).
27. XL
Hi

If this thing does track towards the Cayman Islands by Saturday or Sunday as Dr Masters suggests. Can anyone advise me what sort of intenisty we would be looking at?

Thanks in advance
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
06Z GFS doesn't forsee to much of 93L. Dissipates it before crossing Cuba.


You might want to look again.. it dissipates the SECOND one, not 93L
Beer works, icecream, although me, I run because I JUST LOVE RUNNING -- if my bones let me I'd run for hours.... alone. Of all the play I do --running is the best -- anywhere, anytime, any weather... it's all good. Unlike the ocean, if I get tired I fall down... the ocean yikes I drown.

OK the stinky sock diver men & #1 son -(these guys are a tribe unique to their career-commercial diving) are on the move.....- last night was a celebration for completing the natural gas line from N.FL to Tampa Bay.
BBL
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm aren't you basically flat also.. geography wise?


Well, we do have some draw bridges that are pretty high. Do they count? lol
12Z package(s) starting to come out.

Can't help to notice that there's have been some trends by NAM for the approaching trough later this week to actually lift out and take the potential energy to move 93L out with it... therefore leaving 93L waiting for another trough to pick it up.

Since the associated front is expected to stall across the SFL region and recent GFS runs have slow down the front progress I will have to say that there's a possibility of this system meandering for a while in the NW Carib.

Global 12Z runs soon to come out should hopefully reveal possible patterns (possibilities).
Examples of how crazy the HWRF often is:

Dean - 873 mb at landfall
Fay - 920 mb just off Florida
Gustav - 892 mb in the Gulf just before landfall
Hanna - 887 mb Gilbert-like monster (bottommost image)
Ike - 897 mb at landfall on South Texas
33. 786
Thanks Storm and Dr. Masters for your knowledge and insight. We here in Cayman are def. keeping our eyes on this one
Quoting Orcasystems:


You might want to look again.. it dissipates the SECOND one, not 93L


IMO the closed low is easy to track, it is 93L and it's easy to see that no closed low crosses Cuba. Could be portraying a decoupling with the mid level off to the NE and the Low level remnant gets left behind to dissipate in the Caribbean.
35. JRRP
The HWRF is not reliable with the intensity of the cyclones but it is reliable with the future track
Andrew. Are you going to bring me my lemon or do i have to squeeze it from my hat.
i think 93l will hit fl as a 1 hurricane so fl be on the lookout for this storm because this is the one for us so get ready
Hey eddye. Go to tropics chat.
recon on the way to 93l
Quoting eddye:
i think 93l will hit fl as a 1 hurricane so fl be on the lookout for this storm because this is the one for us so get ready


That is a bold statement with no model support at all. Feeling rather comfortable in SEFL myself.
93L COC 15.1N/81W? Just wondering if anyone else notice this as the Possible COC on Vis Sat Loop?
You are absolutely right canewhisperer. Dont listen to eddye. He said every storm this year would hit florida and guess what he was wrong. So dont worry because he is just trying to scare everyone.
No reason not to classify TD17 now. 93L is developing a healthy CDO.
let see what the recon will find its underway to 93l
here comes paloma south fla get ready for 1 or a 2
the way 93L is organizing,w/convection near the center...we should have a TS by 5pm,skipping the TD designation again,seems to be a trend this season!!!!
anyone have any dvorak est.??????
the center looks to be very close to the coast at this time as well....I give the keys a 50% chance of some weather from 93,???I'm still not sure about the peninsula yet???
old but only one posted i could find

05/1145 UTC 14.1N 82.3W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic
Quoting stillwaiting:
anyone have any dvorak est.??????


Next one comes out at 17:45

05/1145 UTC 14.1N 82.3W T1.5/1.5
Good morning everyone. Tropics still don't want to slow down. 93L has been seting their for quite a few days with little movement. See what RECON finds and we may have a better idea. Another North easterly forming off the VA coast. That will also be interesting to watch for the next couple of days here in the NE.
Andrew. Are you going to bring my my lemon or do i have to squeeze it from my hat.
NAM & GFS 12Z say the trough won't be strong enough to pull it up and out.
Quoting stormpetrol:
93L COC 15.1N/81W? Just wondering if anyone else notice this as the Possible COC on Vis Sat Loop?


I was going to say N13.8 W82.4. Will see what the RECON finds.
Quoting stormpetrol:
93L COC 15.1N/81W? Just wondering if anyone else notice this as the Possible COC on Vis Sat Loop?


I see what you see, but think NHC position is still accurate. Take a look at the other sats. Looking at them all, think official position is as close as possible.
looks to me that the apparnt center is 15N and 82.4 W
NHC just moved it NE on the sat overlay to 14N/81W
Buoy 42058 at 15N 75W still has an East wind. That means the center must be below 15N or else the wind there would be from the SE.

Also, buoy 42057 just South of Grand Cayman has a NE wind. If the center was at 15N the wind would be from the SE as well.

IMO the center is still near 13.5N 81.5W

IR loops are unreliable in trying to pin point a center and with the overcast from the developing cloud deck even the vis loop is unreliable until it develops spiral banding features.
thanks seastep and HSS.....
hello guys, i was talking to my self on the old blog sily me! kman islander i share your concerns on that southerly approach also 93l is a td by my judgement
Hi WxLogic what is happening?
The center appears to be near 13.2N 81.7W. That's just a bit wnw of where Quikscat showed it five hours ago.
i agree with nhc
My biggest worry with us here in Grand Cayman is storms approaching from the SW that we don't get a Hurricane Michelle 2001 scenario , they tend to wreck havoc on the The Capital Georgetown and Seven mile beach tourists resorts, the only thing that helped us with Ivan, Georgetown was speared major damage.
kendal:thats the surface center I'm looking at couldn't agree more!!!!!Looks stationary...
recon running a little early. Should be around the center by 1:45 eastern.

Modified (a bit dislexic this AM) was calc'ing based on 18N (81W really scrambled)

more like 2:30pm...
When a sytem that is a broad as 93l the coc shifts around abit especially if its stationary gradually tightening the of the overall circulation then sttles in to one position , ihave been observing this we can now look for strengthening.
G'day all,

59. kmanislander

San Andres Island, Col. (Airport)
Lat/Lon: 13.4 N 81.3 W
Wind: 16 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.81 in / 1009 hPa (Rising)

[edit] by the time I got all this posted... changed to: 29.80 in / 1009 hPa (Falling)
Link


Buoy 42057 16.834 N 81.501 W (1650'2" N 8130'2" W)
uh, oh... Note: This report is more than two hours old
GMT 14:50 NE ( 54 deg ) 15.5 kt
Pressure (PRES): 29.86 in 0.03 in ( Rising )
Link
...I wonder if we have lost data from 42057

CRS
We'll find out in the next 24 hours what the trough is going to do.. if it misses it then who knows how long that'll sit down there and what'll happen afterwards
Quoting sporteguy03:
Hi WxLogic what is happening?


Hi sport... working and watching the weather hehe.
does anyone have the link to the model page from fsu?
Quoting Clickerous:
does anyone have the link to the model page from fsu?


Link
thanks Sea
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
old but only one posted i could find

05/1145 UTC 14.1N 82.3W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic


SSD's fix is valid IMO. Safe to assume it is somewhere between 13 and 15N, lol.
Afternoon all. So if I'm looking at the models correctly FL is out of the woods as far as 93l is concerned. In fact GFS dissapates it. Are there any variables that could cause it to go more N and affect FL? I still don't see an exact COC yet.
Lastest Quikscat

still looks like a broad sfc low
Quoting weathers4me:
Afternoon all. So if I'm looking at the models correctly FL is out of the woods as far as 93l is concerned. In fact GFS dissapates it. Are there any variables that could cause it to go more N and affect FL? I still don't see an exact COC yet.


Not really, IMO. Maybe if the trough is delayed
I don't see this directly affecting FL. Good luck and stay safe, Kman!
77. btwntx08

That is from 6am eastern.

Has changed significantly since then in organization.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
100 PM EST WED NOV 5 2008
...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE BORDER OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
sea look at the utc time it says 17:22 utc and right now its now 18:00 utc....which is noon in est
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


Hmm...
ooops i mean cst not est
wow.. for having a possible storm forming this place sure is sllllooowwwww
T.C.F.A.
INV/93L/33
82.3W/14.1N
Very impressive blowup of convection...
Link

Looks like the timing of sending a HH plane is just right
How Close will this come to South Florida and the Florida Keys
Quoting Clickerous:
wow.. for having a possible storm forming this place sure is sllllooowwwww


Most people think the season is already over; at least, that is my impression based on what I have seen posted here (or, because the U.S. can't be threatened anymore, there is no reason to watch).
Quoting KendallHurricane:
How Close will this come to South Florida and the Florida Keys


As og right now it doesnt look like its going to come close.. but if the front stalls or retreats north then who knows what'll happen
how close are the HH?
i Have a bad feeling about this these fronts have been washing out over south florida and i believe it is going to come close to the keys with Heavy Rain
The 12Z models don't look the least bit encouraging for Caymans or Cuba.

For days now the models have been very consistant & now down right insistant we are about to see Rene begin to form in the central Atlantic.
HH are to the outer clouds still 24000'.
The rain is coming down in buckets here now and the wind has switched to being out of the E or ENE. A few minutes ago when I was at home on the south coast we had gusts over 20 mph and visibility down to about a quarter mile or so.

The wind shift suggests a position a little further W now for the center, say near 82W as we are at 81.3
Quoting btwntx08:
sea look at the utc time it says 17:22 utc and right now its now 18:00 utc....which is noon in est


I used to make this mistake myself.... you have to look at the time in blue at the bottom. That is the time of the pass for that "stripe." The time at the top is the last time it was updated for the entire globe and only some stripes that were covered get updated.
Recon about 275 miles NW of the center now
The worst there is ~8 inches in 6 hrs..

05/1745 UTC 13.9N 82.2W T2.0/2.0 93L
101. 7544
been watching this the last 3 days and it keeps bringing 93l further north each day before it turns ne and now with this run it puts 93l right over southern part fla could this be where the other modeles will follow in the next run .


Link
101.

Watching what? That is a link to Dr. M's blog
Still do not see this as a florida/keys threat.



104. 7544
opps here it is sorry

Link
Hey Adrian.

Yeah, should stay S of the peninsula, but it is all a timing issue. It needs to be further N by the time the front slides through, or it may not get picked up.

We'll see how the models shift over the next couple of days in response to the front.
Recon is descending.
Its kinda amazing of how 93L appears to have organized at least Satelite wise in the last 2 hours, will be interesting to see what Recon finds.
Recon getting close. The picked up some strange wind paterns near 16.5 N 83.5 W. Low winds from all different directions.
Quoting nash28:
Hey Adrian.

Yeah, should stay S of the peninsula, but it is all a timing issue. It needs to be further N by the time the front slides through, or it may not get picked up.

We'll see how the models shift over the next couple of days in response to the front.


Hey Andy...

ECMWF 12z run brings it into sw florida as a weak low.
Based on surface obs this is clearly a depression.Advisorys should begin later today.

Quoting 7544:
opps here it is sorry

Link


Its seems as though that model has the L positioned to far north from the start
Pressure of 1003 mb found away from the center
looks like a td for sure

I agree h23. Will be interesting to see if they find a TS. We'll know soon enough.
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Recon getting close. The picked up some strange wind paterns near 16.5 N 83.5 W. Low winds from all different directions.


I think your seeing different wind directions as the plane rapidly decends.. Like a dropsonde in slow motion. Low winds = low shear up there.
maybe a ts if pressure is low enough
Buoy 42057 is down to 1008 and winds up to 24kt gusts to 27.
To me it still does not look all that well organized and I have seen many TDs look a lot better. That said, if they find a closed low and the winds to warrant the call they will likely do so regardless of the somewhat ragged cloud appearance
i truly believe that the computer models are putting this too far south they are probably going to shift further north when we have a defined center cuba better brace again for a hurricane and as for South Florida Be on guard and hope that the front come down on time or we will be in trouble
That 1003mb was while decending..Extrapolated surface pressures often read low and at times may be very incorrect, such as during altitude changes. You may want to be suspect of any large pressure drops for a short period of time which are surrounded by periods where the pressure was very stable
Good we again have data from:
Buoy 42057 16.834 N 81.501 W (16°50'2" N 81°30'2" W)
Link

Continuous Winds
TIME
(GMT) Wind Direction Wind Speed
1850 ENE ( 68 deg ) 22.0 kts
1840 E ( 85 deg ) 18.5 kts
1830 E ( 82 deg ) 17.3 kts
1820 E ( 88 deg ) 16.7 kts

Classic plot of rising winds and falling Bar.
Link
T-numbers also support a depression already.
12Z models are sliding to the N and W a bit. May not cross the peninsula but, I think SFL will be in the cone when advisories are issued.

looks like 7 pm here now, dark and rainy
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
12Z models are sliding to the N and W a bit. May not cross the peninsula but, I think SFL will be in the cone when advisories are issued>


Eh it'll be close.. seems as if more of the models are banking on the trough not picking up 93
Based on the angle of attack, 93L would have to make it up to the channel to have a direct impact on SFL.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Based on the angle of attack, 93L would have to make it up to the channel to have a direct impact on SFL.


and thats a long ways from where it is now
But then again its not realy stationary now either
The GFS Ensemble Models look a lot different then they did earlier as well
No much wind, but the skies looks very dark and gloomy here in Grand Cayman, looks quite ominous.
A little turbulance going in.
Quoting hurricane23:


Hey Andy...

ECMWF 12z run brings it into sw florida as a weak low.


12Z ECMWF Brings it across eastern cuba as a weak low.
[edit]Same as the last one Caicos. See post 97.
oops... I thought it looked familiar...
ie...not recent Qscat

18z early models are way south of the florida/keys.Unfortunately areas like haiti/cuba might be looking at another serious problem this tropical season.

Same as the last one Caicos. See post 97.
Trof should do its job.
Quoting hurricane23:
18z early models are way south of the florida/keys.Unfortunately areas like haiti/cuba might be looking at another serious problem this tropical season.


Even though the models right now show no direct threat to South Florida at this time, you should never let your guard down.

Plus, throughout the day, there have been a few different circulation center locations, so until the Hurricane Hunter data gets inputed into the models, I don't think that we can take the models too seriously.
139. 786
Models have been consistent about the trough picking it up, I do think there will be an upgrade at the 5pm.

Either way streets are already flooding here in Cayman, why they don't create better drainage I'll never know. So much for having a bright and sunny long weekend.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Even though the models right now show no direct threat to South Florida at this time, you should never let your guard down.

Plus, throughout the day, there have been a few different circulation center locations, so until the Hurricane Hunter data gets inputed into the models, I don't think that we can take the models too seriously.


Just dont see anything that indicates a possible threat to south florida at this time.Areas like Haiti/cuba might have some trouble on there hands.
Quoting Seastep:
Same as the last one Caicos. See post 97.


Thanks
CRS *wiping egg off his face*
786 - iguess their too busy trying to mess up the constitution instead of adressing current needs of the populice (hope spelled it right)
Just saw a 1004.9 mb reading but not much in the way of winds yet
144. 7544
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Even though the models right now show no direct threat to South Florida at this time, you should never let your guard down.

Plus, throughout the day, there have been a few different circulation center locations, so until the Hurricane Hunter data gets inputed into the models, I don't think that we can take the models too seriously.


agree also so fla might just cliped and the local news says they are watching this system and it could effect there over the weekend
145. eddye
what up storm for fl
There was a 50kt and 35kt but nothing consistent.
93L should be 17 tonight and paloma tomm, S FL should not let their guard down
Quoting hurricane23:


Just dont see anything that indicates a possible threat to south florida at this time.Areas like Haiti/cuba might have some trouble on there hands.


Just like noone saw anything indicating that Ike would ravage Texas until a day out.
if 93l i snt astorm now i'll eat this computer!!! looking a latest sat images, thay need to issue somthing now to give people time to finalise plans just in case
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
if 93l i snt astorm now i'll eat this computer!!! looking a latest sat images, thay need to issue somthing now to give people time to finalise plans just in case


Make sure you unplug it first !
151. 7544
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Just like noone saw anything indicating that Ike would ravage Texas until a day out.


does any one think the trof will be on time its still pretty from away from 93l right and if it doeesent will the stsyem be forceed to go nw or n instead
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
if 93l i snt astorm now i'll eat this computer!!! looking a latest sat images, thay need to issue somthing now to give people time to finalise plans just in case


Hurricane Hunters have been out investigating for the past hour. Based upon the data coming in, this isn't a tropical storm yet as there was one seemingly questionable reading at tropical storm force. Still waiting for confirmation that this does indeed have a closed surface circulation, but surface observations indicate that it does. Just gotta wait and see.

If they do find a closed circulation, advisories will begin at 5PM on Tropical Depression 17.
Quoting kmanislander:


Make sure you unplug it first !
ha ha ha ha yeah that will wake me up lmao
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Just like noone saw anything indicating that Ike would ravage Texas until a day out.


Models have been very persistent on this getting getting scooped up as the pending trof swings through.Intensification to a hurricane is very possible as shear is no problem.

18z ship forcast just came in and upper level winds unfortunatly look nice for continued development.
AYAYAYAYAY!!! Here we go again and with a possible late tropical season storm... even TWC is back to updates altho' they don't really refer to them as tropical. At least we got a good day to vote... Now we see who gets whapped...
I found part of the reason for the slowness in locating those missing from Ike.

"Hunter finds body of possible Ike victim"

08:35 AM CST on Wednesday, November 5, 2008

By Chris Paschenko / The Daily News

PORT BOLIVAR — Authorities believe the body of a woman discovered by a hunter in a Chambers County debris field is a victim of Hurricane Ike’s storm surge that inundated Bolivar Peninsula.

Chambers County Judge Jim Sylvia said Tuesday the woman’s body was found Sunday about 4 miles north of the Smith Point area, which he said is “due north” across the bay from the peninsula.

“There’s no doubt in my mind,” Sylvia said when asked if the woman was a victim of Hurricane Ike, which made landfall Sept. 13 in Galveston County, causing severe flooding and damaging much of the upper Texas Coast.

Chambers County Sheriff Joe LaRive said the hunter didn’t have an exact location, but search crews from the sheriff’s office found her in a wooded area east of Highway 562.

“We haven’t had anyone missing from Chambers County,” LaRive said. “And we’re leaning toward her being one of the victim’s off the peninsula.”

The Jefferson County Medical Examiner’s Office performed an autopsy Tuesday on the badly decomposed body, revealing characteristics that could help identify her.

The woman is between 30 and 50 years old, stood 5-foot-3 to 5-foot-7, and has brown to blonde hair. Clothing found with the body included a green T-shirt with the words “House of Blues Orlando” and green plaid “Joe Boxer” brand boxer shorts.

She also has upper dentures, lower dental work and had surgery to her right knee. Examiners found a metal plate and four screws just below the knee.

Chambers County officials are working with authorities in Galveston County and the Laura Recovery Center to identify the woman.

Sylvia said he has yet to receive a notice of guaranteed reimbursement from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to send crews to sift through and clean the miles debris on unincorporated private property in his county.

The fields contain hazardous materials, posing a threat to the environment and drinking water, Sylvia said.

“I’ve been hammering FEMA for reimbursement to sort through the debris piles, but I can’t get anyone to listen to me,” Sylvia said.

LaRive asked anyone with information on the woman’s identity to call the Chambers County Sheriff’s Office at 409-267-8318.
I see 93L is likely a tropical depression. Still, I concur with kman's analysis of the system being ragged and ill-defined. I've seen better depressions out there. Even so, with an expanding upper-level outflow channel, as well as warm SSTs, and low vertical shear, I see nothing stopping this from intensifying, possibly moderately to rapidly, once the inner core becomes better established. IMO, a Category 2 cannot be ruled out at this point, although it shouldn't be nearly that strong once it begins to recurve away from Cuba and Florida.
Hello.
Yeah, 93L looks like a TS now. Some heavy rains there too. And looking more threatening all the time. RECON data will be good to see.
Batten down.Coming at you from an unfortunate direction, Cayman Islands.
Looking at the Northeasterly forming off the VA coast. Buoy 44014 which is about 60 miles off the Virginia Beach, VA coast has wind speeds of 47 mph and gust of 60 mph. Wave height is 1604 ft. BUOY 44014
The 200mb flow is really favorable for 93 to develop and in a few days maybe quite rapidly.This situation looks similar to when hurricane Michelle developed in this area in almost the same time of year in 2001.
161. 7544
93l is starting to get larger in size so if the cmc is right and has it that close to so flo the southern half of fla could get more than what it looks like before imo
well may be so but is it gonna disapate? i dont think so! so do they believe it is gonna stay the way it is and do nothing but cause rain mmmmmm nope! so it is organising and fast. i understand that we dont want to cause a panic but we must face reality 93l is imo a storm and will be a hurricane soon , no doubt in my mind .
156. fireflymom

So they aren't searching the debris field in their county because no one from their county is listed as missing and because FEMA hasn't agreed to pay for the search? What kind of moral values do these people have? One can only assume that because they are presumed dead they no longer matter to anyone in authority? Sad.
What's the current timing on the trough? When is it expected to drop through and how far south is it expected to go? The locals here have been saying the it is going to stall out and not make it down the peninsula of FL.
Quoting hurricane23:


Just dont see anything that indicates a possible threat to south florida at this time.Areas like Haiti/cuba might have some trouble on there hands.


Hurricane23, I do know that it is always best to remain conservative. However, you should not deny any possible scenarios. Tropical cyclones are notorious for their unpredictability, especially when the model forecasts are ambiguous. A synoptic scale anticyclone is expected to form over the eastern U.S. about 120 hours (5 days) from now. Depending on where this system is located during that time will be the determine where it will go. The 12Z GFS (2nd link) model expects 93L to be cut off from the trough's weakness as a result of that high.

Despite of all this, it is best to remain conservative and not to neglect any possible case scenarios. At first, the GFS expected IKE to go out to sea when it was in the Atlantic.....and where did it end up?


Impressive Nor'Easter forming, some models show it going warm core, might be a STS.
169. 7544
hmm could the coc relocate to 16/ 81 a see spin there with lots of convection around it new coc ?

Link
Firefly. That is ashame. By the sounds of this, all of the debris piles that are in the area haven't even been looked at to try to recover bodies. Maybe I am reading it the wrong way.
Quoting Bonedog:


Impressive Nor'Easter forming, some models show it going warm core, might be a STS.


Haven't paid much attention to the system, but must agree that this looks like a very formidable Nor'easter. Classic comma shape with far-reaching rainshield. Have fun with this one Bonedog.
168

beautiful storm indeed
I am cch :) Rain bands moving in as we speak. Checked some bouys out there, 40knt sustained gusting 55knt pressures down to 998 and falling
LOL 7544. The last frame also clearly shows the dreaded pin-hole...........
invest_RENUMBER_ep932008_ep172008.ren
CCHS, can you change the designation on your graphic to 93L. It reads 92L.
Lawtonlooker that is how I read it and I live in the general area, hubby works on the Island. I know they have had teams of search dogs out there but I do not know if that is only in approved areas? Maybe someone else on here will know to find out that information. Perhaps Patrap or Presslord has a better resource.
Based upon the latest satellite imagery, it appears that this system has begun to rapidly organize as convection has been getting pulled into and around the circulation center. No invest this season has had such a well-defined circulation center. If the current trends continue, we may be looking at Tropical Storm Paloma before day's end.
We now have Tropical Depression 17.
Quoting pottery:
CCHS, can you change the designation on your graphic to 93L. It reads 92L.


Well I guess he can now call it TD 17 lol
183. IKE
From the afternoon Key West,FL. discussion...

"Model guidance gets murky on Saturday night through Monday. The
general theme is that the low in the western Caribbean will lift
northeast across Cuba and into the Bahamas during this time frame.
The low will have trouble maintaining strength if it does this...due
to moderate shear aloft.
In any case...Keys will be on the weak
side of a weak low moving to the east. Will only increase probability of precipitation and
winds a bit through this period...then drop them even a little more
on Tuesday."
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Based upon the latest satellite imagery, it appears that this system has begun to rapidly organize as convection has been getting pulled into and around the circulation center. No invest this season has had such a well-defined circulation center. If the current trends continue, we may be looking at Tropical Storm Paloma before day's end.


The 200mb flow is really favorable for 93 to develope quite rapidly.
Oh wait...my bad...that was the eastern pacific...my computer text messed up and didnt tell me if that was Atlantic or EP
LOL
Quoting Bonedog:
I am cch :) Rain bands moving in as we speak. Checked some bouys out there, 40knt sustained gusting 55knt pressures down to 998 and falling


Yes I have been watching this since yesterday. Really looking impresive. I don"t know if you saw my link to Buoy 44014, but the have 16.4 ft waves and 60 + wind gust.

BUOY
I guess we will just have to wait until they either designate it on the NHC page or if a STWDS is issued telling us it hasn't developed.
The upper level winds (see water vapor loop) just South of Florida will push 93L to the East if it moves too far north (protecting Florida).
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Area of Interest ... Invest 93L
Satellite Picture ... Invest 93L

Present Satellite Area of Interest ... Atlantic Seaboard
191. 7544
good job you guys call it right again congrades now lets see if the models will shift further north imo they just might
Quoting hurricane23:


The 200mb flow is really favorable for 93 to develop and in a few days maybe quite rapidly.


Have you been following the visible satellite imagery? In the past hour, this has really become much better organized around a defined center. We're approaching diurnal minimum and are continuing to watch expanding, deepening convection. Right now, I find a compromise between the GFDL/HWRF and SHIP model intensities appropriate for the future strength of this system.
Quoting IKE:
From the afternoon Key West,FL. discussion...

"Model guidance gets murky on Saturday night through Monday. The
general theme is that the low in the western Caribbean will lift
northeast across Cuba and into the Bahamas during this time frame.
The low will have trouble maintaining strength if it does this...due
to moderate shear aloft.
In any case...Keys will be on the weak
side of a weak low moving to the east. Will only increase probability of precipitation and
winds a bit through this period...then drop them even a little more
on Tuesday."


76 days and its over!
Capeobserver they have to get permission to search due to environmental concerns from the EPA through FEMA many toxic chemicals ect. set free by the storm.
Quoting hurricane23:


This cyclone is surely getting better organized.

Look at the cirrus clouds at the northwestern, which indicates good upper level divergence. Look at the vigorous flare up of thunderstorm near the center of circulation, which indicates good lower level convergence. The weak developing anticyclone developing to its north should provide further aid to it. All-in-all, this system should become a depression.
Quoting lawntonlookers:


Yes I have been watching this since yesterday. Really looking impresive. I don"t know if you saw my link to Buoy 44014, but the have 16.4 ft waves and 60 + wind gust.

BUOY


To be honest, those observations don't surprise given how vigorous the circulation is and how widespread the system is. Lookin very impressive and appears to be deepening as we speak.
Firefly;

It would be interesting to know how much surching they actually did. That would be a good reasearch story for the local papers in your area to pick up on. JUST BECAUSE FEMA HASN'T RELEASED MONEY TO CLEAN UP SOME UNPOPULATED AREAS, WE DON'T LOOK FOR BODIES.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Have you been following the visible satellite imagery? In the past hour, this has really become much better organized around a defined center. We're approaching diurnal minimum and are continuing to watch expanding, deepening convection. Right now, I find a compromise between the GFDL/HWRF and SHIP model intensities appropriate for the future strength of this system.


Good point...
Yes lawnlookers I have :) I have been following this system when it was a blip on the long range models. Really impressive system and a sense of foreboding as to what our winters will look like up here. Seems almost every week now since the begining of October we have seen a system run up the coast =)
201. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


76 days and its over!


LOL....think you meant 26?

50 days til Christmas...lol....
202. 7544
Quoting StormW:
192. cchsweatherman 3:28 PM EST on November 05, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:


The 200mb flow is really favorable for 93 to develop and in a few days maybe quite rapidly.


Have you been following the visible satellite imagery? In the past hour, this has really become much better organized around a defined center. We're approaching diurnal minimum and are continuing to watch expanding, deepening convection. Right now, I find a compromise between the GFDL/HWRF and SHIP model intensities appropriate for the future strength of this system.


Definitely looking good, cchs!


ok storm w and chhs agrees td 17 at 5pm now will it stay south of fla which i believe the first nhc will show then future cones might trend further north tough one to call right now
Out for the day, and will be on the road on Thursday so I will be back on Friday to see how things are picking up. Have a good evening everyone.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Area of Interest ... Invest 93L
Hurricane Hunter & Vortex Reports ... Invest 93L
Satellite Picture ... Invest 93L
Hello depression 17.
convection has truely exploded in the past 3 hours and has consolidated as well. Hopefully RI isn't starting or will not start.
Hmmm
I appear to be lost :(
Nope hes right 76 days left think about it.
New Blog.....
NEW BLOG!
It is still very Possible for S Fla to get weak TS winds if it passes close enough a few inches of rain but not anything to worry about. But first it has to develop.
212. 7544
early track
Link
TS by 6 pm, wanna bet?