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Caribbean disturbance 93L a threat to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:36 PM GMT on September 19, 2008

Heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing over the Lesser Antilles Islands today in association with tropical disturbance 93L. Visible satellite loops indicate that a closed circulation may be developing at middle levels of the atmosphere, near 14N 64W. Additional slow development appears likely, and I expect 93L's mid-level circulation will work its way down to the surface by Sunday. Slowing down this process will be the presence 15-20 knots of wind shear, which is marginal for development. Wind shear is forecast by the GFS model to remain 15-20 knots for the next five days, but other models are forecasting wind shear in the moderate range, 10-15 knots. The NHC is now giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday, and I put these odds a bit higher, in the 30%-60% range. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L, and it is possible that given its current rather fragile state, high wind shear will prevent development. I give a 60% chance that 93L will eventually develop into a tropical depression.

Most of the heavy rains from 93L are well to the east of the center, and expect heavy rains of 3-6" to affect Puerto Rico Saturday through Sunday. By Sunday, heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Steering patterns will very likely prevent 93L from recurving out to sea, and I expect the storm will affect Jamaica, Cuba, and possibly the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Monday night. It is uncertain at this time whether 93L will retain its current west-northwest motion and cross into the Bahamas (as forecast by the HWRF model), or be forced more to the west on Sunday, and remain in the Caribbean (as forecast by the Canadian model).


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

Possible development off the coast of Africa
Another possible place for development is off the coast of Africa. A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity is emerging from the coast today, and the GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots.

Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about six to seven days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting HurricaneKing:


That center appears to be going poof and a new one appears to be forming near 16n 61w. All in all its a broad mid level swirl with competing centers.


actually those coordinates would still have it exposed.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Ants! Yikes! Stepped out of the car yesterday, somewhere in Alabama and the Fire Ants all got the order to charge! Pain hit, and suddenly I was dancing around, shaking my legs, kicking my flip flops off and trying to keep from screaming! LOL Fire Ants - the name fits! Have those little blister bites all over my feet. (Today I wore Tennis Shoes!) LOl

Who let 93L out? I thought we all agreed that the season was finished, over, final, done!!!


OW! When I get that many bites, I have an allergic reaction. Not anaphylactic or anything like that, but I would be having problems.

I remember when our daughter was 2, she saw a line of fire ants and, curious, put her little hand down in them. She ended up with nine bites on her hand. My husband broke out the gasoline as punishment, and the dead area stood as a warning to other fire ants for the longest time.
Night time horror model run
mm5fsu-merge
Link
Quoting kmanislander:


No. Stealth mode. Watch for 75W where the action may pick up.
...Kman has been a very good prognosticator with these Carib. invests...I'll be watchin close as it nears this longitude..
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


actually those coordinates would still have it exposed.


I didn't say it wasn't. I just said that another swirl was up there. It is closer to the convection though.
Just popping in to say hi...

and then G'night!

Hope to wake up in the morning to find that the tropics have cleared out and all systems have gone *poof*!

Someone wave a wand and make some magic happen!
Night!!!

☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮
lol that is a horrer run S Fla under 1000mb from 2 storms yikes hope that doesn't happen.
happy trails beachfoxx


Looks like we may have to keep an eye on our drivers ~) Truck one already on the way to reunite disabled evacuees with supplies! More images of truck 1 and 2 in my blog. Truck two leaves tomorrow AM heading to Bridge City. Thanks everyone for your support and please keep cheer leading for us in your local community. We will need to keep these tires hot over the next month or two.

Night all, long day ahead tomorrow!
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Just popping in to say hi...

and then G'night!

Hope to wake up in the morning to find that the tropics have cleared out and all systems have gone *poof*!

Someone wave a wand and make some magic happen!
Night!!!

☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮


Good night BFXX
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Just popping in to say hi...

and then G'night!

Hope to wake up in the morning to find that the tropics have cleared out and all systems have gone *poof*!

Someone wave a wand and make some magic happen!
Night!!!

☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮


The Pixie Dust my wand requires is on backorder. Maybe somebody else has some.

G'nite!
If I had had any more than what I got, I would have had to go to the hospital! If we could have found one! LOL We were out in the boonies.... I found 4 covered bridges on the map & was riding the roads in search of them! Will post some pictures when I get home.

Fire ants are a scourge on Earth!

Everyone have a good night! Really gone now!
Quoting LeopardMoth:


OW! When I get that many bites, I have an allergic reaction. Not anaphylactic or anything like that, but I would be having problems.

I remember when our daughter was 2, she saw a line of fire ants and, curious, put her little hand down in them. She ended up with nine bites on her hand. My husband broke out the gasoline as punishment, and the dead area stood as a warning to other fire ants for the longest time.
:o Fujiwara effect if that doomsday senerio would occur the storm in the bahamas would come into S Fla while the Storm in the carribean would go into the middle of the carribean only to likely comeback.
New Pics and a whole Lotta Help..Link
Quoting Orcasystems:
Night time horror model run
mm5fsu-merge
Link


That doesn't look too good at all...

Strange interaction between two of them isn't it?
That would be a Fujiwara effect that the FSU model is showing.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Looks like we may have to keep an eye on our drivers ¿~) Truck one already on the way to reunite disabled evacuees with supplies! More images of truck 1 and 2 in my blog. Truck two leaves tomorrow am heading to Bridge City. Thanks everyone for your support and please keep cheer leading for us in your local community. We will need to keep these tires hot over the next month or two.

Night all, long day ahead tomorrow!


Wow, great pics, Stormjunkie! We are all so grateful to y'all for putting this together. It's wonderful, I know all those people who need it so badly will appreciate it.

Good night, get good rest and be safe on the road!!
Quoting CaptnDan142:


That doesn't look too good at all...

Strange interaction between two of them isn't it?


Different models have then doing different things.. one has them joining together
519. kdav
i doubt 93l will be anthing to worry about cuz it will take a while to develop and if it does the shear will be high and it will prob be disruoted by haiti or cuba so by time it gets near bahamas it doesnt have a whole lot of time to stregthen.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Night time horror model run
mm5fsu-merge
Link


Dang, not liking that!
521. kdav
that wave is awfully impressive. development is a good chance and teh models arent really saying out to sea.
Quoting Patrap:
New Pics and a whole Lotta Help..Link


Are you in the first truck, Patrap?
Quoting LeopardMoth:


This is true. My father used to do this very thing, and he found it immensely satisfying.

Thanks. I felt like it did work, but anything that is free that seems to work makes you feel like you are fooling yourself. LOL

Can someone give me a hint as to what that think is by 45-25 that has a nice little swirl to it? I know it isn't an hurricane, but it seems a little too obvious and no one is talking about it. Thanks.
524. kdav
imagien the fuijwaraa effect in the gom with two strong storms just ramming the gulf coasts.
Quoting CapeObserver:


Dang, not liking that!


Maybe I'm too tired.... what am I missing?
Quoting Patrap:
New Pics and a whole Lotta Help..Link


You guys are all angels. Bless you and the work you're doing. It's good to see some really great people out there working hard to help those in need. This country, heck this whole world, could use more people like you.
527. 7544
Quoting Vortex95:
That would be a Fujiwara effect that the FSU model is showing.


like ive been asking all day if anyone agreed that 93l could be a so fa storm and now it just might be as that model is showing and the msu5gfs has been pointing it in that direction
Quoting hurricane23:


If that takes place then its out to sea for sure.Nothing imminet in the tropics this weekend.

Have a great saturday. Adrian


Quoting angiest:


Maybe I'm too tired.... what am I missing?


Looks like 3 potential systems in not to short order.
Quoting CapeObserver:


Looks like 3 potential systems in not to short order.


Thought I saw that but I didnt see two of them move.
Quoting 7544:


like ive been asking all day if anyone agreed that 93l could be a so fa storm and now it just might be as that model is showing and the msu5gfs has been pointing it in that direction


Watching that ensemble it looks like the two are doing a dance of sorts, around each other. Will be really interesting to see if it pans out.
533. IMA
509. StormJunkie I look at those pictures and I am just amazed what has been accomplished in one short week. I am so proud to "know" y'all and be a small part of this awesome community. Thank you, from the bottom of my heart. Y'all have earned a permanent place there, and in the hearts of many other Texans, too.
Quoting kdav:
that wave is awfully impressive. development is a good chance and teh models arent really saying out to sea.


Not yet... But there is a bit too much of a northward component for the time the model covers. IMO

We'll know in a few days. Kinda too far out to call just yet. But I'm pulling for a fish.
Quoting CapeObserver:


Watching that ensemble it looks like the two are doing a dance of sorts, around each other. Will be really interesting to see if it pans out.


Now I see it. Fujiwara is exceptionally rare in the Atlantic but the models seem to show it.
Quoting Vortex95:
That would be a Fujiwara effect that the FSU model is showing.


Thanks - I drew a total blank on Fujiwara. LOL
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Not yet... But there is a bit too much of a northward component for the time the model covers. IMO

We'll know in a few days. Kinda too far out to call just yet. But I'm pulling for a fish.


After the season we've had thus far, I think we could all be excited over a fish storm.
Patrap, can you tell me the type of respirator that should be used for interring a house that has been flooded. You had posted the type before but I can't find it. Thanks
Quoting kdav:
imagien the fuijwaraa effect in the gom with two strong storms just ramming the gulf coasts.


Ugh - I'd rather not. We could only hope they ran out of warm water quickly.
Quoting kdav:
that wave is awfully impressive. development is a good chance and teh models arent really saying out to sea.

-
Good night all.
Its Saturday morning here.
Have a great one, and

NUFF RESPECT TO PATRAP, PRESSLORD, STORMJUNKIE, AND ALL THE CONTRIBUTORS.
Quoting angiest:


Now I see it. Fujiwara is exceptionally rare in the Atlantic but the models seem to show it.


Time will tell but it would be really cool to watch it develop. Providing, of course, it stays away from the CONUS. Enough already.
Quoting goldmoon:

Thanks. I felt like it did work, but anything that is free that seems to work makes you feel like you are fooling yourself. LOL

Can someone give me a hint as to what that think is by 45-25 that has a nice little swirl to it? I know it isn't an hurricane, but it seems a little too obvious and no one is talking about it. Thanks.


I know, that's how I felt with the peanut butter concoction. Until the ants disappeared! LOL

I'm too scared to take a shovel to a fire ant mound and carry a lump of it any distance. Those things are fast and mean, and I'm scared of them because of what they do to me. My dad sure liked watching them cut each other to pieces, though!

About the swirl at 45-25, not sure exactly what it is... ULL, maybe?
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Ugh - I'd rather not. We could only hope they ran out of warm water quickly.


I don't think there's enough open space in the GOM for that. They'd hit land and not make it beyond that.
GFDL has 93l becoming a weak TS before dieing over PR...

but the FSU GFS is kinda scarey but I wouln't worry too much.
Quoting CapeObserver:


Time will tell but it would be really cool to watch it develop. Providing, of course, it stays away from the CONUS. Enough already.


Both are too close to the GOM for my taste right now and I don't think we (SE TX/SW LA) are ready for another one this year.
shear will be too high for 93L to develop until
perhaps it gets past just north of hispanola.

give it 3 days or so and we will see perhaps
I think a TD with an interesting track.



Patrap, if you see post #538 I will check for answer tomorrow morning.Calling it a night.
Quoting pottery:
Good night all.
Its Saturday morning here.
Have a great one, and

NUFF RESPECT TO PATRAP, PRESSLORD, STORMJUNKIE, AND ALL THE CONTRIBUTORS.


Good night, Pottery!
550. IMA
OT, but quick tip for fire ant bites -- mix some baking soda and water into a paste and put it on the bites, really does help with the sting. Unfortunately, I'm an expert lol

Amdro is the only thing that works on killin' the dang things here. Haven't had any luck with any of the organics, they've just moved. Have had some mounds so big you'd think they'd need a U-haul.
The 'b' run of MM5 is using a GFDL/GFS-merger-initialized MM5

this explanation is on the model page. with 2 models merged not sure you would see an accurate result.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Patrap, if you see post #538 I will check for answer tomorrow morning.Calling it a night.


G'nite!
Quoting IMA:
OT, but quick tip for fire ant bites -- mix some baking soda and water into a paste and put it on the bites, really does help with the sting. Unfortunately, I'm an expert lol

Amdro is the only thing that works on killin' the dang things here. Haven't had any luck with any of the organics, they've just moved. Have had some mounds so big you'd think they'd need a U-haul.


Offtopic, but since we often have to deal with an explosion of fire ants following a tropical cyclone hit...

Ever try Orthene? Nasty, nasty smelling stuff (self censoring that) but works great and in less than a day. Excellent spot treatment.
Quoting angiest:


I don't think there's enough open space in the GOM for that. They'd hit land and not make it beyond that.


except wierdo Fay
Quoting CybrTeddy:


except wierdo Fay


Touche
If that wave off SA heads to the COC it could help bring a good amount of convection and help jumpstart the convection again.
Quoting IMA:
OT, but quick tip for fire ant bites -- mix some baking soda and water into a paste and put it on the bites, really does help with the sting. Unfortunately, I'm an expert lol

Amdro is the only thing that works on killin' the dang things here. Haven't had any luck with any of the organics, they've just moved. Have had some mounds so big you'd think they'd need a U-haul.


U-haul, LOL! I remember picking blackberries in Baton Rouge, and turning around to find a fire ant mound almost as tall as I was... I was like 12 or something...

I had to become an expert too. Wet tobacco is very good on fire ant stings. I've got a funny story on that one, too. Just imagine a student at school trying to convince an adult - any adult - to give her a cigarette for her ant sting. "You can watch me, I'm going to take it apart, wet it, and put it on my foot! I swear!" LOL

Toothpaste helps, too.
Quoting angiest:


Touche


No, I was inferring Tropical Storm Fay earlier this year. Some strange reason it rapidly intensified over land.
Time to turn in. G'night all.
Quoting CapeObserver:
Time to turn in. G'night all.


Good night!
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Patrap, can you tell me the type of respirator that should be used for interring a house that has been flooded. You had posted the type before but I can't find it. Thanks


Quick Fit
N9504C and N9505C N95 Particulate Respirator
Pleats Plus%uFFFD N95 and R95 Particulate Respirators
QuickLatch Respirator






Tips for Home Gutting after a Hurricane Link So, you want to gut a house?

Good. Let's review what this process actually entails, starting with a simple definition and moving on to the harder stuff later.

Gut is used here as a transitive verb, referring to the act of removing or destroying the most important parts of an object or being.

In the case of gutting a house, the procedure is usually undertaken for two reasons:

1. The house has been damaged in some way which makes it unsanitary or extremely unpleasant to live in. This problem is most often seen in flood zones, and accounts for many of the 200,000 unlivable homes left in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. In order to make a flooded home habitable, the house must be gutted to remove mold living in walls, ceilings, and floorboards.

2. The house has been somehow damaged in an area normally hidden by a wall. This doesn't happen too often, and the gutting process is usually quite swift, as only a small section of wall must be removed.

This guide will mainly cover the first reason to gut a house, but can be applied to smaller jobs.

What You Need:

1. Three foot long crowbar
2. Hammer
3. Large rolling trashcans
4. Tile remover (flat blade at the end of a long pole)
5. Axe
6. Work gloves
7. Lots of dust masks
8. Lots of water

Preparations

This is long, tiring work. From my experience, it takes a team of twelve people about a day to gut a seven room house. Depending on the house construction, and extent of mold damage, it might take up to three days to gut even a small house.
Quoting angiest:


Offtopic, but since we often have to deal with an explosion of fire ants following a tropical cyclone hit...


They are a side-effect that many don't think about. Be very careful walking in flood waters. Not all the dangers are submerged.

Last time I had about 60 bites below the ankle on one foot, I immersed it in ice water as long as I could stand, warm a bit, repeat... And took a Benadryl.

For prevention - I have had good luck with Spectracide Fire Ant crystals, or DemonWP (If you can get that in your state)
We have a Kind donation of a case of these already for a Truck being loaded,but more are needed.

N-95 is an adequate Protection But the Cartridge Ones are BEST.

Lowe's and Home Depots and others have them all.



Quoting CaptnDan142:


They are a side-effect that many don't think about. Be very careful walking in flood waters. Not all the dangers are submerged.


A few year ago we had a minor flood in my neighborhood due to a broken pump for our detention pond. And we had 8 inches of rain that night.

Saw people walking barefoot in that water, of course. I had seen snakes and crawdads in it. And you can't count out the possibility of the off alligator.
Quoting CaptnDan142:


They are a side-effect that many don't think about. Be very careful walking in flood waters. Not all the dangers are submerged.

Last time I had about 60 bites below the ankle on one foot, I immersed it in ice water as long as I could stand, warm a bit, repeat... And took a Benadryl.

For prevention - I have had good luck with Spectracide Fire Ant crystals, and/or DemonWP (If you can get that in your state)


You're right. Fire ants will float in living rafts on the water, swarming onto the first thing that touches the raft. If that's you, you're in for a bad time.

And if it's a lot of flooding that you're dealing with, like after a hurricane, there'll be lots of fire ant rafts about.

When we had flooding in our yard, my dad would go out with a bottle of dish liquid and water (he did premix, I think). He would look for the fire ant rafts and squirt them. It would wash off their protective coating, causing them to sink and drown.

Again, I'm way too scared of fire ants to go out and try this myself.
All right. Time for bed. Good night.
Quoting angiest:
All right. Time for bed. Good night.
Good night!
Quoting LeopardMoth:


U-haul, LOL! I remember picking blackberries in Baton Rouge, and turning around to find a fire ant mound almost as tall as I was... I was like 12 or something...

I had to become an expert too. Wet tobacco is very good on fire ant stings. I've got a funny story on that one, too. Just imagine a student at school trying to convince an adult - any adult - to give her a cigarette for her ant sting. "You can watch me, I'm going to take it apart, wet it, and put it on my foot! I swear!" LOL

Toothpaste helps, too.


LOL!! I love that one. I bet you got accused of only using half of it. :)

You are like me, can't stand to leave or you might miss something. I think my family is getting sick of me announcing all of the storms.

My husband came home today and I told him, "Bad news, I..." And he said, "Oh no, don't tell me there's another one out there."

My bad news was more along the lines of having company this weekend. LOL

I'm still wondering why not much has come from the worst of Ike's wrath. Besides FEMA concentration camps (who said foil hat alert?), there hasn't been anything reported that I can find. Did every storm chaser go to Galveston and no other place?

I've been holding my breath since this hit. At first I was relieved it wasn't so bad (I watched the network stuff when it was live), but it seems that it's all over with, except for here. This I think is the only place where you can get any info.
569. IMA
Got a request last night to head to Galveston Island to help w/animal rescue (certified for rescuing animals in disasters but can't help right now - long story, have shed many a tear over not being able to but can't have the required vaccines for one thing) and one thing she said was BRING FIRE ANT KILLER and DEET! I'm going to take some when I do an animal transport, but am wondering if there's not something that would be an extra measure, like castor oil or something on their waders. I mean, it's kind of far-fetched but would it hurt to try? Any suggestions??
568. goldmoon

Seems that all the chasers were looking to catch the eye. Like so many other times, the media attention gives the impression that hurricanes are a 'point of impact' event. :-(

News out of Galveston has slowed to a trickle - I see more coverage of Houston than anywhere else.

It's frustrating - people who don't know the area and don't know the nature of storms like this don't even realize that there are people suffering all along the Texas and Louisiana coasts - and well inland too.

Oh, and I guess I have to plead guilty on the issuance of the "foil hat alert". ;-)
571. IMA
570. CaptnDan142 Personally, I prefer the colander to the foil hat. They last longer. It does help to line it with foil, so that nothing gets in through the little holes in the colander.

If I didn't live in San Antonio television market, I'd probably never see any coverage at all. There's so little on the national level. The 4th largest city in the nation, an island practically wiped from the map, parts of Louisiana under water for the 2nd time in a few weeks, probably hundreds of people missing, dead, rotting animals in trees -- but the election and $ are much more important stories in the minds of the media. Sad, sad, sad.
572. IMA
Goodnight, y'all. Hope everyone has a good weekend. Goodness knows, it's bound to be better than last!
Quoting CaptnDan142:
568. goldmoon

Seems that all the chasers were looking to catch the eye. Like so many other times, the media attention gives the impression that hurricanes are a 'point of impact' event. :-(

News out of Galveston has slowed to a trickle - I see more coverage of Houston than anywhere else.

It's frustrating - people who don't know the area and don't know the nature of storms like this don't even realize that there are people suffering all along the Texas and Louisiana coasts - and well inland too.

Oh, and I guess I have to plead guilty on the issuance of the "foils hat alert". ;-)

I can imagine that their families are going mad right now. Not saying it's not bad out there, but I think that some wish for news more than ice.

I really got a great laugh out of the foil hat thing. I actually went and looked at a couple of those videos, the entire time thinking that there must be some reason that person posted it besides what I was seeing. I played the fool, I guess.

I was deeply embarrassed by having watched two of those videos until I saw what you posted about the foil hats. My favorite line of the day. In fact, I showed a couple to my husband when he got home and warned him that he needed a foil hat to prevent brainwashing.

My 14 year old son needed an explanation of why the foil hats. Here I was thinking they were still in vogue.
Quoting goldmoon:


LOL!! I love that one. I bet you got accused of only using half of it. :)

You are like me, can't stand to leave or you might miss something. I think my family is getting sick of me announcing all of the storms.

My husband came home today and I told him, "Bad news, I..." And he said, "Oh no, don't tell me there's another one out there."

My bad news was more along the lines of having company this weekend. LOL

I'm still wondering why not much has come from the worst of Ike's wrath. Besides FEMA concentration camps (who said foil hat alert?), there hasn't been anything reported that I can find. Did every storm chaser go to Galveston and no other place?

I've been holding my breath since this hit. At first I was relieved it wasn't so bad (I watched the network stuff when it was live), but it seems that it's all over with, except for here. This I think is the only place where you can get any info.


HAHA... The librarian was finally sympathetic, and skeptically watched as I did exactly as I told her I would... she thought the request was strange, but at least she helped me before I had to get them to call my mom to take me home! Too much longer, and I wouldn't have been able to walk on that foot. The whole situation is hilarious to look back on, though.

As for coverage, it's been strange to hear so little. I had to really search for info on SW LA. It's obvious that Ike has wreaked horrible damage on a huge area, but not much is being said.

Here's one link with lots of pictures, as well as links to lots more: Link

Media has been complaining of restrictions on access, too. Not sure whether that has been resolved. That may be why no one is talking about it... they don't have any more footage because they aren't allowed to get it?
Full blog update
Quoting IMA:
Goodnight, y'all. Hope everyone has a good weekend. Goodness knows, it's bound to be better than last!


Good night, IMA!
For anyone interested, I have been writing up an extensive hurricane forecasting tutorial(will be ready sometime this weekend)....In it I explain many tips on how to make a hurricane forecast....I break down the jetstream and show why trough/ridges form along it, many other stuff.....I'm hoping this tutorial will help anyone be able to make a hurricane forecast and understand the meteorology behind it.....Have a great night!=)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Full blog update


Thanks, Orca! Man, I sure hope Hispaniola doesn't get it again! Those poor people haven't had a chance to catch their breaths this year. :(
Quoting quasigeostropic:
For anyone interested, I have been writing up an extensive hurricane forecasting tutorial(will be ready sometime this weekend)....In it I explain many tips on how to make a hurricane forecast....I break down the jetstream and show why trough/ridges form along it, many other stuff.....I'm hoping this tutorial will help anyone be able to make a hurricane forecast and understand the meteorology behind it.....Have a great night!=)


Look forward to seeing it. Good night!
Quoting LeopardMoth:


Thanks, Orca! Man, I sure hope Hispaniola doesn't get it again! Those poor people haven't had a chance to catch their breaths this year. :(

With the way the year has gone so far.. it will pickup and pound Cuba.. again... after it finishes with Hispaniola

That one that might become 94L may hit Cuba also.
I'll have to try the wet tobacco trick next time. The ice water was miserable! We use Adolph's meat tenderizer for jellyfish stings, but it didn't seem to work as well on fire ant stings.

I know the media restrictions have let up some, but from what I see they got to report on Bolivar, but the west end is still off-limits.

Just very odd all the way around. I guess maybe they are more interested (ratings-wise) in the election and the financial mess.

Biggest problem I see with it is that if the rest of the world doesn't know, that limits the help that would normally be available to speed recovery in a case like this. :-(

Anyway, I guess I need to take a peek at Orca's update - then head for bed. If it says the kind of things I suspect it might I will probably be back when I can't get to sleep.

G'nite all. :::waves:::
577. quasigeostropic

I'm looking forward to it!
Quoting Orcasystems:

With the way the year has gone so far.. it will pickup and pound Cuba.. again... after it finishes with Hispaniola

That one that might become 94L may hit Cuba also.


Cuba doesn't need any more, either! I can't imagine how bad the damage is there.
Quoting LeopardMoth:


HAHA... The librarian was finally sympathetic, and skeptically watched as I did exactly as I told her I would... she thought the request was strange, but at least she helped me before I had to get them to call my mom to take me home! Too much longer, and I wouldn't have been able to walk on that foot. The whole situation is hilarious to look back on, though.

As for coverage, it's been strange to hear so little. I had to really search for info on SW LA. It's obvious that Ike has wreaked horrible damage on a huge area, but not much is being said.

Here's one link with lots of pictures, as well as links to lots more: Link

Media has been complaining of restrictions on access, too. Not sure whether that has been resolved. That may be why no one is talking about it... they don't have any more footage because they aren't allowed to get it?

Leave it to the librarian to corrupt young minds. :) Good thing she read a lot of fiction!

This is bound to bring about harsh feelings with some folks. IMO What was hit is just as important as NOLA, as far as financial. Maybe not, considering that it won't be too costly since most homes were probably considered too high risk to be insured. I don't know if anything other than the barrier islands were hit hard. Not enough coverage (and I have searched). I know LA got it because I'm in MS and of course I have family in LA. From Vermillion Parish, East to Mississippi. My Aunt in BR, LA was out of power for two weeks and her neighbor lost her house (Gustav). Not to surge of course.

I'm not whining over the lack of attention, but all I've seen so far is news articles talking about how FEMA won't do this or FEMA won't do that. The people commenting that are from the areas in the articles are telling the people that have no idea to shut up. They say FEMA is doing a great job (I think it is a coverup and it is really FEMA posting those comments!). j/k

I guess Katrina was too widespread for them to black out the media. I don't know. Maybe they are afraid the economy will crash if we really know?

By the way, gas is $361 here in Laurel, MS. and there are no lines or outages. Well, except for the station that WAS selling it for $3.26. hehe I see articles all over about gas being outrageous even in SC, NC, etc. Last night our local news reported on gas prices rising in other places, said nothing of our own.

Our local newspaper carried an article today over the FEMA ice thing. I don't know why THEY are crying. When we were out of power for Katrina people couldn't find a POD with anything. Radio said one thing, POD was somewhere else. I think I ended up with 3 bags of ice in 2 weeks. I'm a survivor!
Quoting CaptnDan142:
I'll have to try the wet tobacco trick next time. The ice water was miserable! We use Adolph's meat tenderizer for jellyfish stings, but it didn't seem to work as well on fire ant stings.

I know the media restrictions have let up some, but from what I see they got to report on Bolivar, but the west end is still off-limits.

Just very odd all the way around. I guess maybe they are more interested (ratings-wise) in the election and the financial mess.

Biggest problem I see with it is that if the rest of the world doesn't know, that limits the help that would normally be available to speed recovery in a case like this. :-(

Anyway, I guess I need to take a peek at Orca's update - then head for bed. If it says the kind of things I suspect it might I will probably be back when I can't get to sleep.

G'nite all. :::waves:::


Hey, if you're still here, is the prison on the west end?
See you guys in the morning.. have to work again tomorrow. Who said being retired was fun??
587. DDR
***yawn*** incredible lightening show over ne venezuela from 93L.
~93L

12N/57W - 12Z September 17, 2008
.
.
.
.
.
16.5N/60.5W - 03Z September 20, 2008
Quoting goldmoon:

Leave it to the librarian to corrupt young minds. :) Good thing she read a lot of fiction!

This is bound to bring about harsh feelings with some folks. IMO What was hit is just as important as NOLA, as far as financial. Maybe not, considering that it won't be too costly since most homes were probably considered too high risk to be insured. I don't know if anything other than the barrier islands were hit hard. Not enough coverage (and I have searched). I know LA got it because I'm in MS and of course I have family in LA. From Vermillion Parish, East to Mississippi. My Aunt in BR, LA was out of power for two weeks and her neighbor lost her house (Gustav). Not to surge of course.

I'm not whining over the lack of attention, but all I've seen so far is news articles talking about how FEMA won't do this or FEMA won't do that. The people commenting that are from the areas in the articles are telling the people that have no idea to shut up. They say FEMA is doing a great job (I think it is a coverup and it is really FEMA posting those comments!). j/k

I guess Katrina was too widespread for them to black out the media. I don't know. Maybe they are afraid the economy will crash if we really know?

By the way, gas is $361 here in Laurel, MS. and there are no lines or outages. Well, except for the station that WAS selling it for $3.26. hehe I see articles all over about gas being outrageous even in SC, NC, etc. Last night our local news reported on gas prices rising in other places, said nothing of our own.

Our local newspaper carried an article today over the FEMA ice thing. I don't know why THEY are crying. When we were out of power for Katrina people couldn't find a POD with anything. Radio said one thing, POD was somewhere else. I think I ended up with 3 bags of ice in 2 weeks. I'm a survivor!


It really is horrible the way the media has been limited on this one. Networks trying to out-disaster each other is better than no coverage at all.

You're in Laurel? My grandmother's from Laurel. She was Miss Pickle for a parade there sometime in the late 30s / early 40s. I've been there only once.

Gas here (NW FL) is in the upper $3s. The area was out of gas a few days ago, but has some now. Don't know for how long.

Being just off a major highway got us power only a week after Ivan. The community had pulled together so well, we were almost sorry to see the power come back so soon. Strange, I know.
Quoting Orcasystems:
See you guys in the morning.. have to work again tomorrow. Who said being retired was fun??


Good night! LOL
so much for quiet period,lol, things are pickin back up!
Quoting Skyepony:
Along the lines of the TX law poll Masters left us.. How about this law? According to Texas law, any repairs over $10,000 must be done by a state certified contractor. Out of this article about the Woodlands. RV alowed on property for 45 days, 6 months to complete repairs. Sounded like there was alot of major damage.




That's funny, I contracted in the state of Texas for more than twenty years as a commercial contractor doing millions of dollars of business and never had to be certified. I was licensed in certain municipalities which required it but never by the state.
Quoting Patrap:


Quick Fit
N9504C and N9505C N95 Particulate Respirator
Pleats Plus%uFFFD N95 and R95 Particulate Respirators
QuickLatch Respirator






Tips for Home Gutting after a Hurricane Link So, you want to gut a house?

Good. Let's review what this process actually entails, starting with a simple definition and moving on to the harder stuff later.

Gut is used here as a transitive verb, referring to the act of removing or destroying the most important parts of an object or being.

In the case of gutting a house, the procedure is usually undertaken for two reasons:

1. The house has been damaged in some way which makes it unsanitary or extremely unpleasant to live in. This problem is most often seen in flood zones, and accounts for many of the 200,000 unlivable homes left in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. In order to make a flooded home habitable, the house must be gutted to remove mold living in walls, ceilings, and floorboards.

2. The house has been somehow damaged in an area normally hidden by a wall. This doesn't happen too often, and the gutting process is usually quite swift, as only a small section of wall must be removed.

This guide will mainly cover the first reason to gut a house, but can be applied to smaller jobs.

What You Need:

1. Three foot long crowbar
2. Hammer
3. Large rolling trashcans
4. Tile remover (flat blade at the end of a long pole)
5. Axe
6. Work gloves
7. Lots of dust masks
8. Lots of water

Preparations

This is long, tiring work. From my experience, it takes a team of twelve people about a day to gut a seven room house. Depending on the house construction, and extent of mold damage, it might take up to three days to gut even a small house.

In case the spy is down from the tower, I'm adding:

Hard Hat
Long pants and shirt
Safety goggles
Leather boots
First aid kit
Keep a good footing and lean on ladders
Watch falling debris
Don't throw debris from windows without looking first
Ok, checked on kids, fed critters, I've got to go to bed now.

Good night!
THE GFS MODEL SHOW THE SYSTEM NEAR AFRICA TO BECOME A TD EARLY MONDAY NEAR THE 10N AND 30W THEN PROBABLY KYLE LATER MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY NEAR THE 35W.
EVEN NOW, I GIVE AT LEAST 30% TO FOLLOW A TRACK SIMILAR TO IVAN AND DEAN,40% TRACK SIMILAR TO HUGO OR GEORGES(10 YEARS AGO)AND 30% PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, AFFECTING NO LANDS.
It looks like 93L might be developing a new low center well to the west of the original one, near the heavy thunderstorms
Quoting LeopardMoth:


Hey, if you're still here, is the prison on the west end?


Nope - the Galveston Jail is down around 53rd Street or so. Still behind the seawall as I remember. The Level IV Bio-Lab at UTMB is even farther east, so that isn't the problem either. Actually, for being right on the water on the back side of the island, UTMB sits up fairly high.

I really don't know what's up with the west end blackout - but it's odd that the media isn't complaining about it any more either.

Really makes you wonder... (No foil hat required) ;-)
595. Dar9598

The GFS has that system moving almost northwest at the end of the run, from what I saw.

Do you see something that will bend the path back more to the west? Because the way it looks to me, it can't help but be a fish.

What will turn it west?
45,000 given go-ahead to return to Galveston

55 minutes ago

GALVESTON, Texas - One week after Hurricane Ike wiped out whole neighborhoods and nearly every basic service in Galveston, there is a plan to start letting some 45,000 evacuees back to their hobbled hometown.

Link to full article.
"really don't know what's up with the west end blackout - but it's odd that the media isn't complaining about it any more either."

First post to blog and thank you Dr. Masters for this great site.

In Houston here:
Really makes you wonder... I agree. There was media blackout of Bolivar peninsula early (through Sunday). There was a agressive verbal exchange between a local news reporter and the Texas governor over that (I think it was Saturday evening that the exchange happened). Next day the reporter got in a boat and went to Bolivar (incidentally, the FAA had flight restrictions over Bolivar through Sunday). Local abc TV did 24/7 coverage through the storm for a week (from last Friday on). Although some national feed is coming over (there will be Aggies football aired Saturday) there is still extensive coverage of the recovery and search for missing on that station. They have live streaming at their web site: www.abc13.com

Morning all.



Nothing particularly impressive out there this morning.
Good morning everyone.
604. bcn
Spain buys an storm.
OK, our economy is very damaged, and we have no money to buy something bigger. But we need water.
Taken into account the most noticiable about Spain climate was Gordon some years ago, at least, this one starts to loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/ir4-l.jpg (20W-60N).
Good morning everyone......i just updated my Blog if anyone would like to review...thanks.

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
Gotta go! BBL late this evening......long day planned.....NO FIGHTING!
608. Vero1
Good morning StormW
Sorry, StormW just seen you pop in..Good morning!
Good Morning...
611. Vero1
The Tropics this Morning

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NO CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N57W E OF THE WAVE
AXIS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
63W-66W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ACROSS THE
WRN CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM
OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W SW TO THE
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 11N84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 6N20W 7N27W 8N32W 8N49W 9N54W
11N64. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-9N BETWEEN 21W-27W. A SIMILAR AREA OF CONVECTION IS ACROSS
THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 61W-64W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATING FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N93W TO 22N97W ACROSS
THE WRN GULF AND COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH A BROAD AREA OF
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS. EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
N OF 21N AND W OF 88W. WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SW GULF...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ACROSS THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SRN MEXICO FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
EXTENDS WEAK RIDGING INTO THE NE GULF. AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF REGION WHILE SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR NW GULF
WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
THE NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
74W-83W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W...WHICH
INCLUDES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO NORTH OF PANAMA AND IS PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 83W TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SRN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-84W
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
32N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED
BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD OF THE US. THIS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS ERN CUBA. FARTHER
EAST...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 26N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 17N25W EXTENDS W TO 38W ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE ERN
ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N AND E OF 65W ANCHORED ON A SERIES OF
SURFACE HIGHS CENTERED N OF THE REGION.

$$
HUFFMAN


Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!


Good morning...
I agree with earlier post about what to do about fire ant bites. Wet tobacco did work fine on yellow jacket stings back in 1945 or '46. On me then momma used to shred a cig in her palm then spit in it, rub in then place on sting. Worked great. Was it the tobacco or momma's spit that did the trick?
In regards the tropics today... I have a feeling that this is going to be an pretty odd situation...
urggurrr the leftover forecast 3am yesterday called for 93l to be a td today at 8am est. close but no cigar leftover back to the shole.
Quoting WxLogic:
In regards the tropics today... I have a feeling that this is going to be an pretty odd situation...


we are in 2008 what has not been "odd"
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


we are in 2008 what has not been "odd"
lol
Quoting leftovers:
urggurrr the leftover forecast 3am yesterday called for 93l to be a td today at 8am est. close but no cigar leftover back to the shole.


Hmm..I didn't recall the NHC stating development today.
Quoting WxLogic:


Hmm..I didn't recall the NHC stating development today.


he forecasted it to be a TD today at 8 AM but he was not right
Not to be a curmudgeon, but in light of all the ____casters, trolls, politics, etc. complaints, what's with all multiple "Thanx Dr.", "Good morning", "BBL", etc? Isn't that's what the 'WU mail' system is for?

BTW, BBL with flame suit on...LOL!
Good morning. Been catching up on some previous posts and this won't be seen by a lot of the posters but perhaps the info will be passed along.

Not a weather comment, but as surely weather related as anything can be;

For most, fire ants are a painful annoyance. To a small group, they are deadly. One Mother's Day, I got to spend 6 hours in the ER because my son had the whole anaphalactic reaction to 11 bites. He is not allergic to anything else, and is otherwise a very healthy kid. No one else in my family has allergies of any kind. He is now a healthy kid who keeps Epipens in strategic locations and who knows the true value of diphenhydramine (Bendryl) in pill AND topical form. Caladryl also makes a clear topical that takes a lot of the sting out for an hour or two before you need to apply again. Works great for yellow fly bites as well.

But the most important thing came as a complete surprise to me, 3 years after we learned of his allergic reaction. No one ever mentioned it until we'd moved from Pensacola to Gulfport.

FIRE ANT IMMUNOTHERAPY has significantly reduced the reaction his body has to fire ant bites-which are nearly unavoidable for active kids down here. They WiLL find fire ants even if they are just playing in a neighbors yard. He can be out with 20 kids, and my kid will be the one that finds them-the hard way-every time.

The Immune Therapy is provided by an Allergist. He gets his at Keesler. It is logistically challenging, but I am convinced it's saved us many trips to the ER, if not his life.
It starts with tiny injections of fire ant venom, twice a week, and eventually becomes once a month injections of larger doses. After 6-7 years, we have finally moved to "once every 2 months, but still carry the Epipen".

I had no idea, and no one in 3 years had mentioned that such a thing as this therapy existed. It's not a perfect solution, but should he find a big mound, or suffer many bites, it at least gives us a little extra time. It's still a medical emergency, but it's also become an informed one for the adults at school and when he was in Day Care.

For spot treating, AMDRO works great. It can be confined to just the mound area, and its carried to the queen. If a mound is destroyed on the surface but she survives, they will simply move and pop up a short distance away. A couple of products have become available just in the last 2-3 years. I use Over and Out to treat my yard one time, in the Spring. It's not 100%, but it has significantly reduced the number of mounds that crop up.

Finally, a note of caution. It is suspected that allergic reactions to fire ants and other nasty stinging things can be cummulative. You may get bit or stung a couple of times before reacting with anything more than a localized area of pain and itch blister. If you are in an area where fire ants are a problem, know the signs of anaphalaxis.

/tips/fireants.stmLink
re: heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti


oh no, let's hope not...nhc surface map shows the junk coming off africa dev a low 72 hrs.....jo
well...."Good morning!!!!!!!!!" 2ifbyC
Good Morning Lurkers?
Quoting DragonLady:
Finally, a note of caution. It is suspected that allergic reactions to fire ants and other nasty stinging things can be cummulative. You may get bit or stung a couple of times before reacting with anything more than a localized area of pain and itch blister. If you are in an area where fire ants are a problem, know the signs of anaphalaxis.



Great post! My bride of 39 years has become hyper-allergic to peanut products. Her reactions are worse with each inadvertent exposure. So be careful out there...
628. IKE
ABNT20 KNHC 201158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST
OF NICARAGUA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
629. IKE
Looks like 93L may be on it's way and it may be more trouble for the islands....
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING
...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
Good morning all - Press you are up and about early. How goes the travelers?
Good morning everyone
zoo...one truck arrives Houston 10A CDT...one leaves Charleston 10A EDT...one leaves NOLA midweek....bout to go wake up the wife and send her on her way with SJ....
Presslord, did you get SJ that Garmin GPS yet?
cool pics @ stormjunkie's Wunderblog......
tkeith...when we sail my wife is the navigator....says that way she can tell the Captain "Where to go..."
Quoting presslord:
tkeith...when we sail my wife is the navigator....says that way she can tell the Captain "Where to go..."
...my guess is, she is familiar with role..lol
Talking about a freak. 93l is the slowest tropical wave we've seen in yrs. Gustav crawled. 2008 has crawled.
Liked all the pics on SJ's blog. couldn't find the interview on YouTube with channel 5 any info if thats gonna be posted?
Quoting leftovers:
Talking about a freak. 93l is the slowest tropical wave we've seen in yrs. Gustav crawled. 2008 has crawled.


As in slow moving systems or in few storms? If you mean by few storms, Galveston's a crater and so is parts of Louisiana from Gustav and Ike
tkeith...I'll look into that ...
642. JRRP
looks more strong
So far its taken 93 almost three days to get to where it is now from the leeward islands. I plan on making another loser forecast once 93 is declared a td most likely north towards the mona passage not wnw. to Jamaica.
644. JRRP
93L
12 GMT 09/19/08 13.3N 63.5W 20 1010 Invest
18 GMT 09/19/08 13.3N 64.4W 25 1010 Invest
00 GMT 09/20/08 13.9N 64.8W 25 1008 Invest
12 GMT 09/20/08 14.7N 67.5W 25 1009 Invest
Quoting CybrTeddy:


As in slow moving systems or in few storms? If you mean by few storms, Galveston's a crater and so is parts of Louisiana from Gustav and Ike


He is referring to how these systems move so slow and take so long to form.
what happen to that african wave?
Quoting extreme236:


He is referring to how these systems move so slow and take so long to form.


Tell that to Gustav. Lol. Went from a wave to a Hurricane in a few hours.
Quoting weatherman113:
what happen to that african wave?


Its not as impressive and is at a very low latitude. Nonetheless, the environment is favorable for some development if it gains latitude.
my nag to all - everyone please ask at least ONE PERSON each day to give to tex/la relief ...together we can make a difference,

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
825 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

VALID 12Z WED SEP 24 2008 - 12Z SAT SEP 27 2008
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A RETURN
OF BRISK TO OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING AGAIN TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THRU THE WEEK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONT TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY OF THE EVOLUTION OF CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/NRN FL
COAST AND ITS FUTURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE CONTS TO BE AGAIN A
GOOD SIGNAL OF LOW PRESSURE FORMATION EVEN AFTER YTDAS AFTNS
MAJORITY MODEL CONSENSUS OF HIGH PRESSURE SUPRESSION. 12Z 19 ECMWF
USED FOR CYCLOGENESIS DEPICTION WHICH IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION
CLOSER TO 00Z UKMET/06Z GFS AND ENS MEANS OF GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX
RUNS. LOW IS DEPICTED AS BAROLINIC FOR NOW BUT MAY WELL BE
SUBTROPICAL. NOGAPS AND CMC/GHM/HWRF CONT TO DEVELOP INVEST 93L
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT THIS IS NOT THE SAME FEATURE AS THE
POTENTIAL CLOSER IN SYSTEM. PROLONGED PERIOD OF DAYS OF ONSHORE
NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR JUST OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH WATER TO THE MID ATLC AND SOUTHEAST COAST/BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND ENHANCED BY NEW MOON CYCLE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
WILL INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS TO NEAR STORM FORCE AND WILL AFFECT
THE MID ATLC COAST FROM NC INTO NJ THU/FRI WITH HIGH SURF/COASTAL
FLOODING/BEACH EROSION AND THIS MAY SPREAD NWD INTO SRN NEW ENG
WATER BY SAT. HEAVY COASTAL RAIN THREAT FRI/SAT DELMARVA/SERN
VA/ERN NC. AGAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW. AVG CONFIDENCE ON THE CYCLOGENSIS AND ITS
LOCATION.
ROSENSTEIN

jo
Short Vis. loop of 93l, looking better....

Link
GoodMorning all

Should I store my new generator emoty of full with sta-bull gas stabalizer?

STORMW

Any links to follow that talk about how a tropical wave becomes a dertission? What makes it start spinning, etc?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Tell that to Gustav. Lol. Went from a wave to a Hurricane in a few hours.


Well more like 18 hours but, you know that Gustav took quite a while to form.
236 - the gfs does not have a complete expected path - does this mean that it doesn't develop the system past that point?

TIA
Quoting LeopardMoth:


HAHA... The librarian was finally sympathetic, and skeptically watched as I did exactly as I told her I would... she thought the request was strange, but at least she helped me before I had to get them to call my mom to take me home! Too much longer, and I wouldn't have been able to walk on that foot. The whole situation is hilarious to look back on, though.

As for coverage, it's been strange to hear so little. I had to really search for info on SW LA. It's obvious that Ike has wreaked horrible damage on a huge area, but not much is being said.

Here's one link with lots of pictures, as well as links to lots more: Link

Media has been complaining of restrictions on access, too. Not sure whether that has been resolved. That may be why no one is talking about it... they don't have any more footage because they aren't allowed to get it?


There isn't many media out there looking This is a story I produced for the Wall Street Journal on the Isle de Jean Charlesin Terrebonne Parish, LA. Th small island got ten feet of surge 300 miles away from where the hurricane hit. I have been to Beaumont and SJ is on the right track-- these areas are completely neglected in the aftermath. All the media wants to know is Galveston...
655. ackee
see models are taking 93L towards jamaica my thinking this will be just a big rain maker for us or a TD
Quoting zoomiami:
236 - the gfs does not have a complete expected path - does this mean that it doesn't develop the system past that point?

TIA


Hmmm...good question.
ike and josephine did not really take long to form
Quoting weatherman113:
ike and josephine did not really take long to form


That is true, but overall a a lot of the storms took a while.
Quoting extreme236:


Well more like 18 hours but, you know that Gustav took quite a while to form.


Yea, pre-Gustav (94L) was a long watch and many wrote it off and turned attention to Fay.
As always - the model runs mean very little at this point. We have to wait till it becomes developed(if it does), then they will get a better handle on it.

Look how much trouble they had with Ike after it was a full blown 'cane!
Ive got a question for you guys...
First off, GOOD MORNING!
Ok, now...
Why do the models and NHC say West movement and along comes Steve Lyons and says NorthWest expected?
662. JRRP
Quoting weatherman113:
what happen to that african wave?



don´t have closed circulation
Not very impressed with 93L this morning but convection does appear to be trying to build near the mlc/llc.
GFDL and HWRF runs take 93l out to sea,
GFS takes it into South America!

They have a good handle on it - LOL!!

Link
Quoting hurricane23:
Not very impressed with 93L this morning but convection does appear to be trying to build near the mlc/llc.


Yea I'm really not too impressed either...once that wind shear slackens a bit we should see some improvement.
Quoting benirica:
Ive got a question for you guys...
First off, GOOD MORNING!
Ok, now...
Why do the models and NHC say West movement and along comes Steve Lyons and says NorthWest expected?


Well...that's the keyword "expected". So he's not saying that is not moving NW but that he expects it to start moving NW soon... so for the time being is moving W. :)
Autistic2 here is a tad more simpler page on how a tropical cyclones form and its affects.View the hurricane intensity animations i created.
672. JRRP
PR radar
Link
Wow this blog is crazy sometimes lol admid sorry about that.
Quoting Patrap:


Quick Fit
N9504C and N9505C N95 Particulate Respirator
Pleats Plus%uFFFD N95 and R95 Particulate Respirators
QuickLatch Respirator






Tips for Home Gutting after a Hurricane Link So, you want to gut a house?

Good. Let's review what this process actually entails, starting with a simple definition and moving on to the harder stuff later.

Gut is used here as a transitive verb, referring to the act of removing or destroying the most important parts of an object or being.

In the case of gutting a house, the procedure is usually undertaken for two reasons:

1. The house has been damaged in some way which makes it unsanitary or extremely unpleasant to live in. This problem is most often seen in flood zones, and accounts for many of the 200,000 unlivable homes left in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. In order to make a flooded home habitable, the house must be gutted to remove mold living in walls, ceilings, and floorboards.

2. The house has been somehow damaged in an area normally hidden by a wall. This doesn't happen too often, and the gutting process is usually quite swift, as only a small section of wall must be removed.

This guide will mainly cover the first reason to gut a house, but can be applied to smaller jobs.

What You Need:

1. Three foot long crowbar
2. Hammer
3. Large rolling trashcans
4. Tile remover (flat blade at the end of a long pole)
5. Axe
6. Work gloves
7. Lots of dust masks
8. Lots of water

Preparations

This is long, tiring work. From my experience, it takes a team of twelve people about a day to gut a seven room house. Depending on the house construction, and extent of mold damage, it might take up to three days to gut even a small house.
Thanks Patrap
Quoting nola70119:


There isn't many media out there looking This is a story I produced for the Wall Street Journal on the Isle de Jean Charlesin Terrebonne Parish, LA. Th small island got ten feet of surge 300 miles away from where the hurricane hit. I have been to Beaumont and SJ is on the right track-- these areas are completely neglected in the aftermath. All the media wants to know is Galveston...

Great article. Thank-you for sharing that.

Takeing a glance at this mornings best track update convection is still well removed from the proposed circulation.
20/1145 UTC 4.3N 20.8W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean
Quoting Chicklit:

Great article. Thank-you for sharing that.

Sad story and you are right about the press concentrating on Galveston. But it just isn't Galveston only, it particular places in Galveston. I haven't seen a camera yet go into the regular neighborhoods.Thousands of residence being banned from going on the island to look or quickly salvage any little keepsake, so they continue to watch the news to get a peek at their neighborhood and all of the cameras are concentrating on the Strand business area, the historical district or the wealthy peoples beach homes. It's been a week and still trying to see how much damage done to my father-in-laws house who is staying with relatives in central Texas. I might have connections and will be able to get on the island today.
665 GFDL and HWRF runs take 93l out to sea...

Looks to me like they have it directly affecting almost 4 million US
citizens (Puerto Rico), not to mention other folks in the NE Lesser Antilles...
Quoting UPRM1CIMA:
665 GFDL and HWRF runs take 93l out to sea...

Looks to me like they have it directly affecting almost 4 million US
citizens (Puerto Rico), not to mention other folks in the NE Lesser Antilles...


Sorry - my bad, was just looking at how poor the models are doing with it so far and not really even thinking about impacts. I hope it leaves EVERYONE alone, even a weak system could cuse alot of grief over the mountains.

Again - sorry!
Very little coverage on the outside of Galveston also. Many coastal (and inland) towns were affected too by Ike. The news(when we can watch or listen on radio) is mostly about Galveston and Houston. It is very hard to get any information where we live. It is all very sad.
RIP 93L
93L is getting slowly better organized each day, I am impressed with how it looked now from two days ago. Expect 48-72 hours we might see a depression.
Secondly, no 6z GFDL and HWRF models were run today.

Lastly,
No matter where 93L goes it will effect someone so it will not go out to sea it in the Caribbean Sea and will effect someone with heavy rains and gusty winds.
Quoting Autistic2:
GoodMorning all

Should I store my new generator empty of full with sta-bull gas stabilizer?

STORMW

Any links to follow that talk about how a tropical wave becomes a dertission? What makes it start spinning, etc?
I've had a generator ever since Frances and Jeanne came for a visit 3 yrs ago to S. Florida. For 3 years it's been running fine by ALWAYS having Sta-Bil gas additive in all of my gas for the generator. When I'm done with running the generator, I run the carb empty by turning off gas supply and letting it stall (takes about 1-2 minutes to run empty). I would then empty the gas tank and store the gen it in my garage.

BUT, this year when I went to start my gen with fresh gas and fresh Sta-bil additive - it started on the first pull - but would only run with it half choked. I had to have the carb disassembled and cleaned out. The tech told me that the gas available for us is so bad now (with ethanol), that I need to run it once per month. So along with the fuel stabilizer additive, I keep about 1 gallon of gas in the generator for this.

Hope this helps.
93L is looking better than yesterday, but is still has a lot of work to do...

Good morning all

Overnight 93L has fired up a lot of convection but is still disorganized. The coordinates given for the low being near 67.5W do not appear to be supported by visible obs. I believe this will be another system like pre Gustav where the low had to be repositioned several times as it " jumped around " depending on where the deepest convection was to be found.

The 850 mb vorticity in the E Caribbean shows an elongated area oriented SW to NE and it looks as if the low is redeveloping closer to 14.5N 65W.

This may be at the mid levels and does line up with the 850 mb signature.

Anyone know what is forecast for this?
Blog updated with:

Caribbean System... complete with Spaghetti Models 93L

Caribbean System... with Cloud Cover 93L

Invest 94L??

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST OF NICARAGUA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean

The Next Train.. is this it?

CMC 00Z..
Good Morning, Kman.
93L looks stronger this morning, doesn't it?
Link
Quoting Chicklit:
Good Morning, Kman.
93L looks stronger this morning, doesn't it?
Link


Yes it is but as I just posted I see they have now repositioned the low further East near 65W. Current motion is shown as NW but it is too early in the game with a very disorganized system to say that is a done deal.
Quoting system345:
RIP 93L

Link
I think this prognostication is a bit premature.
Quoting Tazmanian:
20/1145 UTC 4.3N 20.8W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

it doesn't say 93L on that so its not the invest
694. Mikla
GFDL, SHIP & HWRF models averaged together:

...again, not sure how much use it is...
Quoting btwntx08:

it doesn't say 93L on that so its not the invest


Those coordinates are for the wave that just came off the coast of Africa
Quoting kmanislander:


Those coordinates are for the wave that just came off the coast of Africa

that wave is in the itcz
Kman, as usual you are correct IMO.
If you look at the area around 15/65, it would appear that 93L is encountering lower shear and conditions more favorable for development as Doc Masters said.
Quoting StormW:
651. Autistic2 8:56 AM EDT on September 20, 2008
GoodMorning all

Should I store my new generator emoty of full with sta-bull gas stabalizer?

STORMW

Any links to follow that talk about how a tropical wave becomes a dertission? What makes it start spinning, etc?

Hurricane Zone


Great link for me, thanx.

Generator gas storage:
Amount to leave in generator is up to you. Some will warn of condensation in empty tanks resulting in water collection, but this is easily monitored and tank is easily drained if that occurs. You should leave enough to keep carb gaskets from drying out.
The most important thing with any engine you own is to crank periodicaly and bring up to operating temperature to refresh gaskets and seals.
699. JRRP

Generator storage
Over the years I have found the best way is to run the carb dry and fill the tank with gas with an additive in it. An empty tank may rust and the particles will screw the carb up when run. At the start of the season I drain the gas and run it in my car. Put fresh in for the season.
From my blog - 93L
Anyway, off to mow the lawn again before we get rain in from the Gulf.
As usual, in the early stages, the models are all over the place. GFDL at present has it going to Nova Scotia. While BAMs has it headed toward the Caymans!
703. Mikla
If you are ambitious and a bit mechanically inclined, you can pull the float bowl off the carb (turn gas valve off first), get yourself a can of contact cleaner (from home depot or radio shack) spray all the orifices and surfaces with the contact cleaner (including the inside of the float bowl) and reassemble.

This will eliminate the chance of gas residue gumming up the inside of the carb jets and/or causing the float to stick when you go to start the gen the following year.

This is what we used to do when I was a motorcycle mechanic and stored bikes for the winter.
Quoting MissNadia:
Generator storage
Over the years I have found the best way is to run the carb dry and fill the tank with gas with an additive in it. An empty tank may rust and the particles will screw the carb up when run. At the start of the season I drain the gas and run it in my car. Put fresh in for the season.
Just watched an interview with a retired Coast Guardsman who rode out the storm on Crystal Beach. Ended up having to swim out of his house, in the water for almost 14 hours, floating on debris.

Actually swam/moved across the channel to the next piece of land over where he was rescued by helicopter.

Says he's not living on the water any more.
Link

Link for interview
706. JRRP
new blog!!!!
Quoting theshepherd:
The most important thing with any engine you own is to crank periodicaly and bring up to operating temperature to refresh gaskets and seals.


...also put a 'load' on it.

Good info...
Quoting zoomiami:
Just watched an interview with a retired Coast Guardsman who rode out the storm on Crystal Beach. Ended up having to swim out of his house, in the water for almost 14 hours, floating on debris.

Actually swam/moved across the channel to the next piece of land over where he was rescued by helicopter.

Says he's not living on the water any more.

Incredible.
The riding bell on my Harley reads, Never drive faster than your angel can fly.
Looks like he kept pace with his. God bless him.
Remember the fellow down in your area that speared the large fish and was towed 10 or 12 miles refusing to let go before the fish finally died?
Wonder if you forecasters that keep us safe have a forecaster's bell hanging from your monitor that reads, never forecast further than your angel can see? ;>)
Quoting nola70119:


There isn't many media out there looking This is a story I produced for the Wall Street Journal on the Isle de Jean Charlesin Terrebonne Parish, LA. Th small island got ten feet of surge 300 miles away from where the hurricane hit. I have been to Beaumont and SJ is on the right track-- these areas are completely neglected in the aftermath. All the media wants to know is Galveston...


nola70119, thanks for that beautiful story. It's heartbreaking to read the story of these proud people. I live in an area of Florida where the Army Corp of Engineers also tried to 'manage' Mother Nature with less than stellar results.
Quoting zoomiami:
Just watched an interview with a retired Coast Guardsman who rode out the storm on Crystal Beach. Ended up having to swim out of his house, in the water for almost 14 hours, floating on debris.

Actually swam/moved across the channel to the next piece of land over where he was rescued by helicopter.

Says he's not living on the water any more.


Thanks again zoomiami for that hair raising interview. I evacuated for Charley (turns out unnecessarily) yet NEVER regretted that decision.
Update From Saint Kitts

We made it through the night safe, no casualities reported as yet. We have moderate to heavy tree damage with severe coastal flooding and erosion with extensive damage to Frigate Bay Beach, one of my photos. We had a
spectacular lighting show last night. Hurricane Omar came on the 10th year after the infamous Hurricane Georges and took a track similar to Hurricane Lenny 9 years ago.

The Basseterre Bus and Sea Terminal