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Caribbean Disturbance 92L Organizing; Typhoon Utor Hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:40 PM GMT on August 14, 2013

Pressures are falling in the Western Caribbean where a tropical wave (92L) is headed northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Cayman Islands radar shows that the thunderstorm activity is disorganized, and satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, and no signs of a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The 00Z SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Friday, but then shear will rise on Saturday. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the 06Z run of the GFS model. It shows a landfall on Saturday of a weak tropical storm between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model shows a more westerly path for 92L, with the storm eventually coming ashore near the Texas/Mexico border. The European model keeps 92L weak and does not develop it. The more northwards path advertised by the GFS model would bring a large amount of moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 50% of developing by Friday, and a 60% chance of developing by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday, if necessary.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L over the Western Caribbean, taken at 10:31 am EDT August 14, 2013. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

New African Tropical Wave 93L Organizing
A tropical wave that pushed off the coast of Africa on Tuesday (93L) is showing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin on satellite loops as it heads west-northwest at 10 mph. The wave is over warm waters of 28°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Thursday. The 00Z SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath 93L will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as 93L encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 60% of developing by Monday, and a 60% chance of developing by Friday. The expected west-northwest track of 93L over the next five days will carry it into a region of ocean where it is uncommon for tropical cyclones located there to eventually impact any land areas except Bermuda.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Utor as it was closing in on the coast of Southeast China at 10:42 am local time on August 14, 2013. At the time, Utor had top winds of 100 mph. Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 05:45 UTC on Wednesday, August 14. At the time, Utor was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, and was making landfall in China, 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Utor hits China
Typhoon Utor hit Southeast China about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong near 3 pm local time this Wednesday, as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained wind of 34 mph, gusting to 44 mph to Macao, and wind gusts as high as 54 mph to Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Utor will continue to dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large but weakening typhoon, with the eye no longer visible. In the Philippines, where Utor hit as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on Monday, 4 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 11 people are missing.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3501. Grothar
50% is pretty high still. remember dorian was 10% then developed.
3503. LargoFl
3504. GatorWX
I like Bill Carens on msnbc. He says north central gulf coast.
3505. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It seems as if 92L has stopped moving as it is bumping up against the shear.



So its not shooting the gap? Its not going to be a Cat 1 or 2 making landfall in the big bend like you said yesterday?
Quoting 3498. SLU:
5-0-0 on August 15th ...... What a bust!


Above average but in terms of hurricanes is slightly below average. But as Teddy said earlier,our first hurricane will be wave behind Erin. I also going to add the second hurricane will be from disturbance behind the one in West Central Africa now in Central Africa.
This TUTT low that seems stuck in the Central Gulf is causing havoc on 92L.

3508. LargoFl
Untill NHC changes this to..LOW CHANCE..im watching 92L closely........................................... .AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
3509. Grothar
3510. LargoFl
I wonder what the conditions in the gulf will be like..in 5 days?..better or worse for 92L?..its not moving fast at all so far
3511. ncstorm
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:
TS Erin
Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity
Rank:
Europe (17%%u2191) in 14 days
North Carolina (13%) in 12 days
Canadian Maritimes (13%%u2191) in 12 days

Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity
Rank:
South Carolina (8%) in 12 days
North Carolina (8%) in 12 days
Florida (8%%u2193%u2193) in 3.6 days

Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
Rank:
Mexico (6%) in 15 hours
Cuba (3%%u2193) in 53 hours
Belize (3%) in 14 hours


Quoting 3508. LargoFl:
Untill NHC changes this to..LOW CHANCE..im watching 92L closely........................................... .AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS


Never turn your back on a Western Caribbean seed.
3513. StormWx
I'm with Levi on this one. A MEX storm. Its just not going to do much crossing the Yucatan. Likely just TS Nate from 2011 part deux.



Another very cool night across much of the US. Very unusual for August. Infact TWC said ATL highs may not reach out of the 60's today as cold air dams down the eastern side of the Appalachians.

Yeah; CIMSS site back up. Here is the am sheer chart for the Atlantic. Very low sheer at the moment for Erin between now and the Caribbean; between that and a favorable SAL environment, I am thinking that Erin might be a contender for hurricane status down the road.

However, this is just my uneducated guess......... :)

Link
Quoting 3510. LargoFl:
I wonder what the conditions in the gulf will be like..in 5 days?..better or worse for 92L?..its not moving fast at all so far


Conditions across the entire Atlantic basin are puzzling to me. We saw a lot of the same last year. Yesterday 92L was developing and yet it fizzled. Erin should be a classic CV hurricane and yet models dissipate it. We shall see. All I know is that Texas sure could use a drought busting tropical storm.
Oh where Oh where is the center of 92L? Over night 92L has become very unorganized.


3518. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Severe outbreak of fog this morning.. :)
I braved through and retrieved my newspaper unscathed..
Of course many others may have not been so lucky..
Anyhoo..
92L not really making any progress from what I can see..
And the models Gro posted show a more westerly bias..
Maybe a Texas TD..
I am hoping so..

Hazy/Light fog and rain off in the distance for the beach goers this am..


3520. LargoFl
Quoting 3516. clwstmchasr:


Conditions across the entire Atlantic basin are puzzling to me. We saw a lot of the same last year. Yesterday 92L was developing and yet it fizzled. Erin should be a classic CV hurricane and yet models dissipate it. We shall see. All I know is that Texas sure could use a drought busting tropical storm.
yes this doesn't seem to a normal year..hopefully as the storm goes into the BOC some rains will spread to texas.
3521. Grothar
Quoting 3505. StormWx:


So its not shooting the gap? Its not going to be a Cat 1 or 2 making landfall in the big bend like you said yesterday?


Now you're bashing people. Just what you wrote before that you didn't like.
Quoting 3516. clwstmchasr:


Conditions across the entire Atlantic basin are puzzling to me. We saw a lot of the same last year. Yesterday 92L was developing and yet it fizzled. Erin should be a classic CV hurricane and yet models dissipate it. We shall see. All I know is that Texas sure could use a drought busting tropical storm.


Strange to say the least for the last 2 years.
3523. Relix
I think Erin will become a hurricane. I don't think it'll become a major threat to the antilles for now.
3524. Grothar
Quoting 3518. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Severe outbreak of fog this morning.. :)
I braved through and retrieved my newspaper unscathed..
Of course many others may have not been so lucky..
Anyhoo..
92L not really making any progress from what I can see..
And the models Gro posted show a more westerly bias..
Maybe a Texas TD..
I am hoping so..

Hazy/Light fog and rain off in the distance for the beach goers this am..




Texas needs a break.
92L just......disappeared yesterday night.I thought I was going tom at least wake up to a T.D this morning....Oh well.I see we have Erin with us.Not sure about it's future.I just hope it's not Dorian part two..
3526. Grothar
Quoting 3519. GeoffreyWPB:


Geoff, did you all get those storms up there this morning?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151159
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER LAND HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
Quoting 3519. GeoffreyWPB:
Finally getting some rain in South Fl. Lawn was drying up.
Quoting 3525. washingtonian115:
92L just......disappeared yesterday night.I thought I was going tom at least wake up to a T.D this morning....Oh well.I see we have Erin with us.Not sure about it's future.I just hope it's not Dorian part two..


I woke up to get ready for work at 5am and noticed that 92L vanished. Very strange!
3530. MTWX
Quoting 3426. LargoFl:
would be nice if north Carolina could send some of those 70's temps down here..lol


It was 59 here in MS this morning when I got up for work!! Felt great!

Today's High 82!
Quoting 3526. Grothar:


Geoff, did you all get those storms up there this morning?


Not a drop Gro. Forecast is for a rainy Thursday up my way.
3532. Grothar
Quoting 3525. washingtonian115:
92L just......disappeared yesterday night.I thought I was going tom at least wake up to a T.D this morning....Oh well.I see we have Erin with us.Not sure about it's future.I just hope it's not Dorian part two..


It probably didn't have the oomph to get going. But there is still hope down the line it could ramp up in the Gulf a little.
When I look hard enough (with 1 eye closed) I almost see a circulation. Cound just be my imagination.
Quoting 3528. avthunder:
Finally getting some rain in South Fl. Lawn was drying up.


After a very wet 4 months here in Orlando we have only had .28" at MCO so far in August when normal is 3" of rain. Needless to say things are drying out fast.
3535. LargoFl
3536. LargoFl
Quoting 3534. StormTrackerScott:


After a very wet 4 months here in Orlando we have only had .28" at MCO so far in August when normal is 3" of rain. Needless to say things are drying out fast.
its going to be interesting if not today then tomorrow when all this tropical moisture mixes with the afternoon sea breezes.
Quoting 3504. GatorWX:
I like Bill Carens on msnbc. He says north central gulf coast.
Gator, did Mr. Bill mention any city names? How about Perry to Sarasota?
3538. Grothar
Quoting 3531. GeoffreyWPB:


Not a drop Gro. Forecast is for a rainy Thursday up my way.


Go on now, don't be late for work.
I recall a few runs of the GFS, I believe, that never did develop 92L until after the Yucutan "crossing".

This is from the 12 Aug 06Z run, for example ... for 12Z today:



Then for 00Z tomorrow:

Heavy rains and no wind here in Roatan.
Good morning everyone! Yesterday was day 4 without rain in my little part of NW Florida and I was successfully able to mow my water looged front yard. It's still a bit soggy but I was able to cut down the 2 foot high grass! Looks like it was just in time too, anywhere in Florida could be in for a lot of rain in the coming days if 92L comes our way. I'm really surprised 92L is not at least a depression. Maybe Florida will luck out and this will drift West into Texas where they need the rain!
Quoting 3526. Grothar:


Geoff, did you all get those storms up there this morning?
Local weather person just said our rain is from 92L. Could that be?
Quoting 3530. MTWX:


It was 59 here in MS this morning when I got up for work!! Felt great!

Today's High 82!


There were freezes across the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. One poster on here said as a result the leaves are already changing color.
...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

AFTER WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND A VERY UNSEASONABLE STRONG COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAIN YESTERDAY. PLEASE TAKE YOUR TIME ON THE ROADS AND BE AWARE OF OTHER DRIVERS. REMEMBER SCHOOL JUST STARTED AND BUSES ARE ON THE ROADS WITH NUMEROUS KIDS WAITING ON THE SIDE OF THE ROADS.


I guess the Winter Weather crew will be having an early start this year. That might explain why conditions appear to be so hostile fot development.
3545. LargoFl
Quoting 3530. MTWX:


It was 59 here in MS this morning when I got up for work!! Felt great!

Today's High 82!
wow 59 huh..gee our heat index is around 100..we need the rains to cool things down
Quoting 3522. StormTrackerScott:


Strange to say the least for the last 2 years.


Even the NHC thought that 92L was forming yesterday.
3547. Grothar
Down to 50% I'm surprised nobody posted this.


3548. StormWx
Quoting Grothar:


Now you're bashing people. Just what you wrote before that you didn't like.


To make up for that, how about some history about 'Erin' from past seasons eh?

Erin 1989


Erin 1995


Erin 2001


Erin 2007


And it would be interesting to note that in 1983 the season didnt even make it to the 'E' storm, it stopped at Dean. That would drive this place nutso.
Quoting 3546. clwstmchasr:


Even the NHC thought that 92L was forming yesterday.


It was like 92L pulled a Don last night.
Quoting 3547. Grothar:
Down to 50% I'm surprised nobody posted this.




Someone did on the last page Gro;)
Quoting 3539. Rmadillo:
I recall a few runs of the GFS, I believe, that never did develop 92L until after the Yucutan "crossing".

This is from the 12 Aug 06Z run, for example ... for 12Z today:



Then for 00Z tomorrow:



Not sure if its a low relocation or the original low. Some of the models indicate a split - 1 low down in the BOC and another low that moves up towards the Gulf Coast.
Very confusing setup.
Quoting 3542. avthunder:
Local weather person just said our rain is from 92L. Could that be?


From the Miami NWS Disco...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GREAT
LAKES INTO ALABAMA THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...THAT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA...IS ADDING EXTRA
MOISTURE/SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.
3553. ncstorm
Quoting 3547. Grothar:
Down to 50% I'm surprised nobody posted this.




See post 3488..
Quoting 3545. LargoFl:
wow 59 huh..gee our heat index is around 100..we need the rains to cool things down


Heat index in Orlando has been 110 to 116 lately. It's been miserable just to walk out the door.

3555. Grothar
Quoting 3542. avthunder:
Local weather person just said our rain is from 92L. Could that be?


Yes, it is. I will show you "proof" too.


Link
3556. LargoFl
its funny..IF we here would have seen 92L as its seen this morning 2-3 days ago..we would be saying OH WOW look at it..its not over til it dies out.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC THU AUG 15 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN (AL052013) 20130815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130815 1200 130816 0000 130816 1200 130817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 25.7W 15.5N 28.3W 16.4N 31.1W 17.2N 33.6W
BAMD 14.4N 25.7W 15.3N 27.9W 16.5N 30.4W 17.9N 32.8W
BAMM 14.4N 25.7W 15.3N 28.2W 16.3N 30.7W 17.4N 33.1W
LBAR 14.4N 25.7W 15.5N 28.2W 16.8N 30.8W 18.4N 33.5W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 56KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130817 1200 130818 1200 130819 1200 130820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 35.7W 18.3N 39.5W 18.7N 43.6W 20.0N 48.0W
BAMD 19.4N 35.0W 22.1N 38.7W 24.8N 41.7W 27.2N 42.1W
BAMM 18.3N 35.3W 19.8N 39.3W 21.4N 43.5W 23.8N 47.4W
LBAR 19.8N 35.7W 22.5N 38.8W 25.2N 41.0W 27.6N 41.3W
SHIP 57KTS 56KTS 55KTS 58KTS
DSHP 57KTS 56KTS 55KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 25.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 23.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 20.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM
We have to wait until late October for lows in the 50's here in Orlando and some years we have to wait until Thanksgiving for temps to get that low.
3559. centex
I suspect rec0n will be canceled. I never understood the timing of that flight because it was going to be over land.
Eddie Dollar. What's UP MAN!!!!
3561. MTWX
Quoting 3554. StormTrackerScott:


Heat index in Orlando has been 110 to 116 lately. It's been miserable just to walk out the door.



That's how it's been the last few weeks here too. This morning was quite refreshing! Almost had to put on a jacket! LOL!
Quoting 3559. centex:
I suspect rec0n will be canceled. I never understood the timing of that flight because it was going to be over land.

i think you are right!!
Well if 92L makes it into the BOC, storms generally strengthen pretty good.
I see the NAM has finally changed its mind and it brings a Low north into the Gulf Coast.


84 hours
Quoting 3505. StormWx:


So its not shooting the gap? Its not going to be a Cat 1 or 2 making landfall in the big bend like you said yesterday?

You still dogging Scott? Still? Can you go a single day without quoting him. A single hour?
3566. Grothar
Quoting 3553. ncstorm:


See post 3488..


I don't know how I missed it. LOL

I guess I was busy correcting everyone's mistakes and showing people why they were wrong. People with "backbone" do that you know" :)
Quoting 3564. Sfloridacat5:
I see the NAM has finally changed its mind and it brings a Low north into the Gulf Coast.


84 hours

who cares lets watch erin 92l is done
3568. Grothar
Quoting 3548. StormWx:


To make up for that, how about some history about 'Erin' from past seasons eh?

Erin 1989


Erin 1995


Erin 2001


Erin 2007


And it would be interesting to note that in 1983 the season didnt even make it to the 'E' storm, it stopped at Dean. That would drive this place nutso.


Now that's better LOL
3569. LargoFl
this from the MISS. morning update..........MODELS DIFFER ON THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF. THE 00Z THU
NAM BEING ONE OF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT PLACES A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF SOUTH OF LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST
Quoting 3567. Camille33:

who cares lets watch erin 92l is done


You go ahead and do that and then next week about mid week when it starts to get close to land the rest of us will join you.
Good morning!

It looks like 92L lost the race to become TS Erin. That's ok. Its chances have signficantly reduced, but they aren't 'niete' yet. Mexico landfall seems likely now, unless it deepens significantly on the other side of the Yucatan, which seems unlikely at this point.

(click to enlarge)
GORGEOUS DAY from the woods today. Loving this cool weather. Can leave the windows open at night and hear the crickets singing and the sounds of the wind blowing throw the Cottonwood Leaves.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Quoting 3555. Grothar:


Yes, it is. I will show you "proof" too.


Link
Thanks Gro! Guess we are in for a wet couple of days here.
3574. LargoFl
remember this is precip.
Quoting 3570. 69Viking:


You go ahead and do that and then next week about mid week when it starts to get close to land the rest of us will join you.

no model forms this so i am not watching it
Quoting 3460. dan77539:
Once he slows down to that optimum 10-12 mph as he gets closer to the Caribbean, things could start to develop further relatively quickly.

Once "she" slows down.


It
The Storm

-or-

Erin

Never he or she.
Quoting 3498. SLU:
5-0-0 on August 15th ...... What a bust!



That's like saying "Oh no! Dallas is 0-4 in the preseason. No Superbowl for you!".

Then again, I just heard Tony Romo was just tossing a salad, and it was intercepted by a bunny rabbit.

3578. Grothar
Quoting 3571. cyclonekid:
Good morning!

It looks like 92L lost the race to become TS Erin. That's ok. Its chances have signficantly reduced, but they aren't 'niete' yet. Mexico landfall seems likely now, unless it deepens significantly on the other side of the Yucatan, which seems unlikely at this point.

(click to enlarge)


Yo, stranger. How've you been?
Quoting 3560. SouthernIllinois:
Eddie Dollar. What's UP MAN!!!!
I am good, not sure if u have me confused with someone else though!!
Like the bright lamp, that shone in Kildare's holy fane,
And burn'd through long ages of darkness and storm,
Is the heart that sorrows have frown'd on in vain,
Whose spirit outlives them, unfading and warm.
Erin, oh Erin, thus bright through the tears
Of a long night of bondage, thy spirit appears.



Erin, Oh Erin by Thomas Moore - first verse
Man im telling you this season is going to be full of nothing but strengthing then weaking drastically smh,the good days are coming back to strong beautiful storms.
3582. HCW
Have a great day stormtroopers

3583. LargoFl
Nam sure is aggressive bringing the winds up too....
Two consecutive days at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago where the high ONLY reached 70 degrees. And this is with full sunshine. UNREAL!!
3585. Grothar
Quoting 3577. SunriseSteeda:



That's like saying "Oh no! Dallas is 0-4 in the preseason. No Superbowl for you!".

Then again, I just heard Tony Romo was just tossing a salad, and it was intercepted by a bunny rabbit.



Is Tony Romo the weather guy at WYKO?
Quoting 3579. eddiedollar:
I am good, not sure if u have me confused with someone else though!!

Great to hear man! No talking about you chief!! Glad to hear things are peachy in Rotoan!! :) I just love you user name on hear. Very catchy. Got an Eddie Money song in my head now. I don't know if that's good or bad.
Nice to see such a strong consensus from the models.

I am personally a bit more concerned about Erin than I am about 92L

3589. LargoFl
3590. Grothar
Aha!

3591. LargoFl
Quoting 3588. CaneHunter031472:
I am personally a bit more concerned about Erin than I am about 92L

next weekend might get interesting
Never turn your back on the NAM solution.
3593. LargoFl
Quoting 3590. Grothar:
Aha!

is that..a blob alert?
Quoting 3584. SouthernIllinois:
Two consecutive days at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago where the high ONLY reached 70 degrees. And this is with full sunshine. UNREAL!!


Yeah this unheard of during what I known as the hottest time of the year.
Quoting 3456. dan77539:
A landfall for 92L on the Tx-Mex border is probably worth rooting for. They're in a multi-year drought there, and the SE US has been flooding already.


My front yard here in Baytown (30 miles east of Houston) has standing water in it. Best guess some where in the 2-3 inch rain last night and over night. Really need to get a rain gauge. Looked like a tropical storm last evening when it blew in.
3596. LargoFl
Quoting 3592. Rmadillo:
Never turn your back on the NAM solution.
im watching it closely now too.
Quoting 3592. Rmadillo:
Never turn your back on the NAM solution.

Except when it comes to precipitation amounts!
One fish + one bust.... what else?
3599. Grothar
Aha.


Quoting 3585. Grothar:


Is Tony Romo the weather guy at WYKO?


LOL! Damm Gro that was great. Did someone spike your coffee this morning because seem pretty spry.

CaneHunter031472 yes you are right to be more concerned because Erin is going to bend back westward while 92L is dying.
Erin looks to be a recurve
3603. LargoFl
3604. Grothar
Quoting 3593. LargoFl:
is that..a blob alert?


Pre-blob, I guess. That is why these things have to be watched so closely. How many times did we see RIP on Dorian?
3598. CaribBoy this season is not like how 04 and 05 and 08 was when thngs got going,it got going.
Rumors of 92L's death have been greatly exaggerated

Quoting 3586. SouthernIllinois:

Great to hear man! No talking about you chief!! Glad to hear things are peachy in Rotoan!! :)
Yep, we haven't had that much rain this season and we usually get a couple of brushes from tropical storms but to be honest the rains don't really begin until late sept early October and go all the way until about jan/feb.
3608. Grothar
Northern Minnesota has had 3 straight nights of frost and freezes. Now that will get those colors changing fast.
Good Morning! (abbreviated)

And now for something completely different...
6:52 am (10:52 GMT)


Busy blog, so keeping this short. Our 4-day dry spell is over. Got 0.51" this morning before 7 am. Doc better make a new post soon or we'll break the 5000 post record set only recently. Have a great day all!
Quoting 3410. SLU:
La, la, la, la ...



NINA XD
3612. StormWx
Here fishy fishy.

3613. cg2916
Whoa! I go to bed with 92L almost a depression and the models having a consensus on NOLA, and wake up to a ragged storm with lowered chances and models trending back west. What happened?
3614. LargoFl
well I could be dead wrong but im going with the Nam on this one..its not over...
Quoting 3612. StormWx:
Here fishy fishy.



Extremely boring.
3616. Grothar
Quoting 3600. StormTrackerScott:


LOL! Damm Gro that was great. Did someone spike your coffee this morning because seem pretty spry.



By accident I took two heart pills today and I feel like I'm 20 (even though I look 90) So everybody look out. I'm in no mood for nonsense. :)
3617. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Northern Minnesota has had 3 straight nights of frost and freezes. Now that will get those colors changing fast.


I dont think anyone lives up there anyways, so only the buffalo will care.
Quoting 3606. Rmadillo:
Rumors of 92L's death have been greatly exaggerated


Yes, there really is life after death! Resurrections really do happen!!
Quoting 3599. Grothar:
Aha.




Aha as in you see the chunk of convection that's about to break off and spin up your way leaving the rest to come to me, that kind of aha?
This season is
A.a bust
B.boring
Whats going on near the Cape Verde for those repetitive NW tracks out there : Dorian, and now Erin!! ://
It's going to be funny when 92L comes back to life and everyone acts like they knew it all a long.

Quoting 3612. StormWx:
Here fishy fishy.



Not so fast. Still a lot of unknowns.

Booo...Dmax was unkind! I feel like I just got a lump of coal for Christmas!
3625. Grothar
Quoting 3619. redwagon:


Aha as in you see the chunk of convection that's about to break off and spin up your way leaving the rest to come to me, that kind of aha?


You deserve a little I guess. Rain that is.
Quoting 3622. Sfloridacat5:
It's going to be funny when 92L comes back to life and everyone acts like they knew it all a long.



I for one won't be writing it off just yet. I've learned to watch any tropical system very carefully onces it gets into the Gulf. I think we have another day or so before we know what's going to become of 92L. As it stands right now I think it's going to slide over the Yucatan as a wave.
Quoting 3624. FSUCOOPman:
Booo...Dmax was unkind! I feel like I just got a lump of coal for Christmas!


That's a good way of putting it. Good morning Buddy. Can't wait for College Football to start as I see big things for FSU this year.
3628. ryang
If Erin was a bit further south (around 10-11N), it would have a better chance of fighting off the dry air.
3629. LargoFl
Quoting 3620. weatherman994:
This season is
A.a bust
B.boring


It is too premature to make a call.
Quoting 3610. mikatnight:
Good Morning! (abbreviated)

And now for something completely different...
6:52 am (10:52 GMT)


Busy blog, so keeping this short. Our 4-day dry spell is over. Got 0.51" this morning before 7 am. Doc better make a new post soon or we'll break the 5000 post record set only recently. Have a great day all!

Morning Mik!! Jealous of you with that rain!!!! Say hello to Dexter that cutie for me. :)
Quoting 3623. StormTrackerScott:


Not so fast. Still a lot of unknowns.


StormWx should upload his bio pic. LOL

My experience with this blog is when people mention fish storm or "it's going to the BOC" they are trying to get arise out of people and stir things up. It's pretty obvious. :-)
3633. Grothar
93L latest models

A rather long update, but this should help clear up the situation for some of you currently confused with the situations in the Atlantic.
92L disorganized, Tropical Storm Erin forms, another Cape Verde storm soon? 8/15/13
I guess it's easier to hide behind a handle...
Quoting 3622. Sfloridacat5:
It's going to be funny when 92L comes back to life and everyone acts like they knew it all a long.



Doesn't look dead at all to me, still see classic cyclone presentation, although I admit I was expecting some DMAX strengthening, but that's hard with two centers, maybe impossible. If that blob 92L ejected to the NE starts spinning, 92L has maybe one more diurnal cycle over water. With just one coc, we should see a good DMAX overnight... yesterday's DMIN didn't really do any damage.
Quoting 3607. eddiedollar:
Yep, we haven't had that much rain this season and we usually get a couple of brushes from tropical storms but to be honest the rains don't really begin until late sept early October and go all the way until about jan/feb.

Yeah, it has been dry by you. But you do have a long way to until it gets started. You may get in on some action with this system....
The Upper Low in the Northern Atlantic, that Grothar has been mentioning before and I'm sure others have been watching it too, has a pretty decent mid-level vorticy that has only become apparant over the last day or so:



There's very little at lower levels for the moment though:



But continued thunderstorms have been popping up across it and it's basically stationary. It's something to watch over the next week. I wouldn't be surprised if it got mentioned in an update by the NHC and given a low chance of formation at some point.
Quoting 3632. SouthernIllinois:

StormWx should upload his bio pic. LOL

My experience with this blog is when people mention fish storm or "it's going to the BOC" they are trying to get arise out of people and stir things up. It's pretty obvious. :-)


Yeah I know you get those every know and then. But Doc wants us to ignore those people and move on so that is what I try to do eventhough it is hard sometimes and especially when you want to call this guy out.
3640. flcanes
Quoting 3630. rmbjoe1954:


It is too premature to make a call.

Exactly
I would answer that as of now, B, but that is about to change soon
Looks like the models have no idea what to do with 92L now.

But one thing that's interesting is that fact that being where it is, if it re-emerges in to the Gulf and sides with the camp moving northwest into Texas, it would pretty much avoid all the shear it might have encountered had it gone on earlier tracks that took it right through the center of the Gulf and into Louisiana. Also, steering winds are very low in the GOM... the return of Debby, maybe?
Quoting 3604. Grothar:


How many times did we see RIP on Dorian?



What? Did Dorian die? I thought he and Karen got hitched somewhere in the great blue and are touring the world incognito, awaiting their time to once again rattle our tropophychics.;)
Quoting 3639. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah I know you get those every know and then. But Doc wants us to ignore those people and move on so that is what I try to do eventhough it is hard sometimes and especially when you want to call this guy out.

Yeah, I agree. Time to ignore and hit the !

I think we all know what they are up to.
After a dry start to August it appears that we may actually catch up to average over the next week or so.

3645. StormWx
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

StormWx should upload his bio pic. LOL

My experience with this blog is when people mention fish storm or "it's going to the BOC" they are trying to get arise out of people and stir things up. It's pretty obvious. :-)


Not arising anyone, systems that form this far away tend to not affect any land masses which the term 'fish' is commonly used. Perhaps you missed reading Dr. M's discussion about 93L/Erin from above?
"The expected west-northwest track of 93L over the next five days will carry it into a region of ocean where it is uncommon for tropical cyclones located there to eventually impact any land areas except Bermuda."
3646. LargoFl
LOl i love the CMC :P
3627. StormTrackerScott no big thing for FIT football.
Quoting 3627. StormTrackerScott:


That's a good way of putting it. Good morning Buddy. Can't wait for College Football to start as I see big things for FSU this year.


Mornin', Scott

Hope so, it makes for better moods around Tallahassee!

I have my daughter's birthday party this Saturday, so I've been glued to 92L. Looks like we're getting rain anyway.
Quoting 3645. StormWx:


Not arising anyone, systems that form this far away tend to not affect any land masses which the term 'fish' is commonly used. Perhaps you missed reading Dr. M's discussion about 93L/Erin from above?
"The expected west-northwest track of 93L over the next five days will carry it into a region of ocean where it is uncommon for tropical cyclones located there to eventually impact any land areas except Bermuda."

Now now now. You expect me to believe that. Really? LOL. Time to take the high road with you. Good day!
Quoting 3647. SFLWeatherman:
LOl i love the CMC :P


And a storm for you, and for you, and for me, oh and what the heck, a storm for everyone!

Also, is that low below Bermuda perhaps related to the ULL around there now?
Will be warming up in the Windy City but still below climatological averages...

92L is going to the BOC.

Look out Tampico, Mexico ... secure your lawn furniture for when the wind picks up 10 15kt.


Good morning all

Blue skies, sunny weather and a nice breeze in Grand Cayman this morning. The odd shower is still possible during the day but otherwise very nice indeed.

92L never managed to get the surface low going last night and has now pretty much run out of time to organize in the NW Caribbean. Still a small window but closing fast. The next opportunity looks like the BOC where the topography would be favourable for helping it spin up.

Erin is a long way out and lots of time to watch that.
Two other features that have been quietly heading West are at 50 and 42 West. I would also keep an eye on those, especially as they are closer to home and low down.

3656. LargoFl
ok this is new..................its Not over..
3658. StormWx
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Now now now. You expect me to believe that. Really? LOL. Time to take the high road with you. Good day!


High road, low road, all leads to the same place brother! The truth hurts, Erin will not be a threat to land other than perhaps Bermuda. Cant ignore history.
Morning Kman
How did you like that squall about 3 pm yesterday? Had some good winds down south.Blue sky today!
Morning
While all the hype is on 92L and newly formed TS Erin , I am looking at a very suspicious area of disturbed weather in the CATL near 10N 40W associated with a tropical wave. There is some spin in the area ,and this morning the 850mb vorticity chart shows some cyclonic turning in the area. What is in favour of this disturbance, there is good convergence as well as divergence. The system is under 10-15 knots of wind shear, and the shear expected to drop in the 5 knots range the next few days as the wave moves westwards.. The only impediment of this disturbance ,is the amount of dry air to it's north. Given the fact the system is in a moist environment, and the dry air is some distance to it's north. I expect this disturbance to show signs of gradual development as it tracks westward. The area looks innocuous at the moment ,but is an area that needs to be watched closely.
tropical storm erin looking great right now,
3662. RTLSNK
I suggest we all talk about the systems that are out
there and stop talking about each other.

There is a very fine line between discussions with
each other, and personal attacks.

If someone doesn't know where that line is,
re-read the Rules of the Road, and Community Standards.

Thanks, and happy blogging! :)
Erin will be fun to track, it has a nice voyage across the Atlantic ahead to destinations unknown.
3664. StormWx
Quoting Rmadillo:
92L is going to the BOC.

Look out Tampico, Mexico ... secure your lawn furniture for when the wind picks up 10 15kt.


I would recommend trash cans before lawn furniture, but thats just me.
Some wispy clouds to my north but in no way gonna deter me from hitting the water at my friend Alyssa's pool!! 80 may be 10 below average hear but pools are heated!! haha :)

Natalie

Quoting 3654. kmanislander:
Good morning all

Blue skies, sunny weather and a nice breeze in Grand Cayman this morning. The odd shower is still possible during the day but otherwise very nice indeed.

92L never managed to get the surface low going last night and has now pretty much run out of time to organize in the NW Caribbean. Still a small window but closing fast. The next opportunity looks like the BOC where the topography would be favourable for helping it spin up.

Erin is a long way out and lots of time to watch that.
Two other features that have been quietly heading West are at 50 and 42 West. I would also keep an eye on those, especially as they are closer to home and low down.

I saw a spin there this morning.
Checking in on our little friends. Morning everyone. 92l probably has a surprise or two left for us. 93 will come to dance, imho.

This season is neither borring nor bust. Patience, Daniel-san! It only takes one.
Quoting 3659. superpete:
Morning Kman
How did you like that squall about 3 pm yesterday? Had some good winds down south.Blue sky today!


That was wild. Reminded me of a past event that will go nameless LOL
Quoting 3656. LargoFl:
ok this is new..................its Not over..

**in my best Foghorn Leghorn voice** I don't like where you're aimin' that Boy! No, it's not over yet...
Quoting 3667. muddertracker:
Checking in on our little friends. Morning everyone. 92l probably has a surprise or two left for us. 93 will come to dance, imho.

This season is neither borring nor bust. Patience, Daniel-san! It only takes one.

Haha!!!!
Quoting 3660. stoormfury:
Morning
While all the hype is on 92L and newly formed TS Erin , I am looking at a very suspicious area of disturbed weather in the CATL near 10N 40W associated with a tropical wave. There is some spin in the area ,and this morning the 850mb vorticity chart shows some cyclonic turning in the area. What is in favour of this disturbance, there is good convergence as well as divergence. The system is under 10-15 knots of wind shear, and the shear expected to drop in the 5 knots range the next few days as the wave moves westwards.. The only impediment of this disturbance ,is the amount of dry air to it's north. Given the fact the system is in a moist environment, and the dry air is some distance to it's north. I expect this disturbance to show signs of gradual development as it tracks westward. The area looks innocuous at the moment ,but is an area that needs to be watched closely.


We mention that sleeper wave from time to time. It even has a model track, see Gro's latest track post. How it got initialized is beyond me.
The problem with the model spread for 92L is that is isn't helpful at all.
Out for now. Will return later.
Did erin go str8 to TS?
look at the modeles now
Quoting 3654. kmanislander:
Good morning all

Blue skies, sunny weather and a nice breeze in Grand Cayman this morning. The odd shower is still possible during the day but otherwise very nice indeed.

92L never managed to get the surface low going last night and has now pretty much run out of time to organize in the NW Caribbean. Still a small window but closing fast. The next opportunity looks like the BOC where the topography would be favourable for helping it spin up.

Erin is a long way out and lots of time to watch that.
Two other features that have been quietly heading West are at 50 and 42 West. I would also keep an eye on those, especially as they are closer to home and low down.



Got to admit you were right I thought D-max would help greatly and convection would build back guess not anyway what you say we go tee off at golf course later ;)
Quoting 3674. GeorgiaStormz:
Did erin go str8 to TS?


No it was TD5
3678. Grothar
Quoting 3642. moonlightcowboy:



What? Did Dorian die? I thought he and Karen got hitched somewhere in the great blue and are touring the world incognito, awaiting their time to once again rattle our tropophychics.;)


Karen was last seen by some fisherman near the Cape of Good Hope.
Quoting 3678. Grothar:


Karen was last seen by some fisherman near the Cape of Good Hope.


The Good Hope Rule might be effecting 92L
Quoting 3624. FSUCOOPman:
Booo...Dmax was unkind! I feel like I just got a lump of coal for Christmas!
crow pie for everyone
3682. Grothar
Quoting 3671. redwagon:


We mention that sleeper wave from time to time. It even has a model track, see Gro's latest track post. How it got initialized is beyond me.


I'll never tell.


Quoting 3675. hurricanes2018:
look at the modeles now


Models on Erin definitely have some poleward bias.
Wave train keeps truckin' along. We're going to have to watch the wave nearing the coast for development into our next storm, Fernand if 92L doesn't develop.
Good Morning All! I see we have TS Erin , and to all you fishy ,fishy wanters , a hearty LOL! Way to early for that call , that high is just strong ! And as far as being to north , anything above 20 is to high , and where she's at is just fine! WAY to early to presume a recurve , like Gro said yesterday a slight WNW track then straight west then after that , and someone here said , something about 20 N and 65 W , it's will be in a Hebert box , then we all have to watch Erin , the East coast , to the GOM states !
92L looks healthier this AM...storms appear to be firing...but so close to land. Wonder if it will hold up crossing the Yucatan.
Well organized.
The NHC has E gaining 3 degrees lat in 5 days. The models have it gaining anywhere from 5-18 degrees. What is the NHC see that models are missing?
3692. LargoFl
Quoting 3669. hurricanehanna:

**in my best Foghorn Leghorn voice** I don't like where you're aimin' that Boy! No, it's not over yet...
LMAO..yes we must remember its mid august in the gulf..only thing we can do now is stay alert and see what happens the next few days..it could very well die off..or could get up to TS status..its too early yet to know for sure.
Interesting solution from 12Z NAM for +9hrs

Let's keep an eye on the northern end of the wave axis...

3694. L1990
Quoting 3618. seer2012:

Yes, there really is life after death! Resurrections really do happen!!


yea like with dorian... she seemed to be dead but then she got mad or something and said hey boom
Quoting 3672. Rmadillo:
The problem with the model spread for 92L is that is isn't helpful at all.


Did you see the extremely elongated N to S CIMMS presentation? It has to completely undergo mitosis with the Nrn spin, split the sheets, before it can go its own way. Break its leash, so to speak.
Quoting 3680. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
crow pie for everyone


I got a rock.
Quoting 3690. Autistic2:
The NHC has E gaining 3 degrees lat in 5 days. The models have it gaining anywhere from 5-18 degrees. What is the NHC see that models are missing?
. The NHC is smarter , than the models !
Quoting 3695. redwagon:


Did you see the extremely elongated N to S CIMMS presentation? It has to completely undergo mitosis with the Nrn spin, split the sheets, before it can go its own way. Break its leash, so to speak.


Check 3693. BINGO
3699. LargoFl
where do the storms go in August?........
3700. Times2
Quoting 3606. Rmadillo:
Rumors of 92L's death have been greatly exaggerated



The Low is Too Low to go N. Not going to happen.
Quoting 3696. muddertracker:


I got a rock.
lol
Quoting 3691. MisterPerfect:
That wave in Wset Africa looks vigorous could be an AOI by this weekend.
Quoting 3628. ryang:
If Erin was a bit further south (around 10-11N), it would have a better chance of fighting off the dry air.


But there is that stupid NW motion every time!
Off topic, sorry but just way big happy

After 16 days in hospital with a liver infection, Docs at wolfson children hospital say my little (13) girl is going to be fine and come home in a week or so! Me so happy!
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

92L is frazzling. Looks mostly like land interaction diffluence, energy seems to be elongating further with part south of Cozumel and part trying to find the southern Gulf through the channel. I see no evidence of a circulation. I'm surprised development chances remain at 50% in the present.





Y'all can wrestle over it today, it gives me little concern. If by chance it can still do anything at all, I'd hope TX finds some rain from some part of whatever it is. Sure doesn't look like much right now.

Have a good day, all! :)
3707. icmoore
Quoting 3685. CybrTeddy:
Wave train keeps truckin' along. We're going to have to watch the wave nearing the coast for development into our next storm, Fernand if 92L doesn't develop.


I think I read this morning on the hurricane tracker app that there was some model support for development of that wave.
ERIN's T-numbers have been climbing steadily this morning:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 AUG 2013 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:15 N Lon : 26:08:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.5mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.4
92 was a possible player but just could not do it
now with a yuc crossing likely
we wait till the other side
to see what it tries to do something
if anything at all

The wave in front of Erin has a spin to it.I smell an invest coming along.
3711. LargoFl
all eyes are on erin while Fernand sneaks up on them....
Quoting 3680. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
crow pie for everyone


At least for a few loudly outspoken, bordering on disrespectful IMO, posters. (comments back in the 1300s of this blog, if memory serves...)
tropical storm erin maybe her winds will go up to 45 mph at 11am
Quoting 3690. Autistic2:
The NHC has E gaining 3 degrees lat in 5 days. The models have it gaining anywhere from 5-18 degrees. What is the NHC see that models are missing?

Real Time Data :o) just saying

Modified :o) Real time Radar is what I should have said , sorry about that :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting 3713. hurricanes2018:
tropical storm erin maybe her winds will go up to 45 mph at 11am
Maybe 50mph.
Quoting 3693. Rmadillo:
Interesting solution from 12Z NAM for +9hrs

Let's keep an eye on the northern end of the wave axis...



Been watching that, actually. I thought a saw a circulation in there, but it may have just been a deceiving outflow boundary.
3718. LargoFl
3719. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE
SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NEAR GULF WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
WEST TO NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SHOULD
DEVELOPMENT OCCUR...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. RESIDENTS ALONG THE
COAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

I see it a lot here

What do Taco :o) mean?
Quoting 3696. muddertracker:


I got a rock.

loooooooooool. Charlie Brown reference xD
right now I do not see tropical storm erin going out to sea anything soon with this high to the north.
3723. SRQfl
Shark on shark crime!
Link
Quoting 3720. Autistic2:
I see it a lot here

What do Taco :o) mean?

It's someone's signature.
3719. LargoFl

you little ray of sunshine you. Such is Hurricane Season on the coast :)
Rain from 92L spreading into South Florida.
Re 3714

Much thankyous
3728. LargoFl
Erin will clean the house of Dust and leave low pressure in its wake for others too follow....Could get very busy in the Atlantic.
Quoting 3724. Articuno:

It's someone's signature.

Man your doggy is so cute. What is his or her name?
Quoting 3729. TampaSpin:
Erin will clean the house of Dust and leave low pressure in its wake for others too follow....Could get very busy in the Atlantic.

Dust Buster Erin. Like that Tim!
Quoting 3722. hurricanes2018:
right now I do not see tropical storm erin going out to sea anything soon with this high to the north.


flashback 1992
Quoting 3706. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

92L is frazzling. Looks mostly like land interaction diffluence, energy seems to be elongating further with part south of Cozumel and part trying to find the southern Gulf through the channel. I see no evidence of a circulation. I'm surprised development chances remain at 50% in the present.





Y'all can wrestle over it today, give me little concern. If by chance it can still do anything at all, I'd hope TX finds some rain from some part of whatever it is. Sure doesn't look like much right now.

Have a good day, all! :)


To give credit, the very tricky verified forecast for 92L is four days old. And let's not kid ourselves, that wave in front of Erin we give passing mention to occasionally is actually TWO seperate cyclones. Did you see Gro's Erin tracks that 'accidentally' included an initialization on those waves?
Quoting 3731. SouthernIllinois:

Dust Buster Erin. Like that Tim!


Ya you would like a tooto on also i'm sure....LOL
3735. Grothar
Quoting 3679. Rmadillo:


The Good Hope Rule might be effecting 92L


LOL.
But soft, what light thru yonder window breaks?
It is the eastern Atlantic, and Erin is the sun.


Methinks Erin will be of some concern as we go forward beyond the 5-day period.

Quoting 3734. TampaSpin:


Ya you would like a tooto on also i'm sure....LOL

Just might!!
Quoting 3730. SouthernIllinois:

Man your doggy is so cute. What is his or her name?


His name is Goose, he's a Golden Retriever and he's 5 years old now. :)
Has anybody noticed the moisture flow off of 92L it's moving towards Florida , So in near and long term , should that be its movement towards the North , towards the West coast of Florida , and the Northern Gulf coast?
Quoting 3729. TampaSpin:
Erin will clean the house of Dust and leave low pressure in its wake for others too follow....Could get very busy in the Atlantic.


Reminds me of Ana/Bill in 2009. Erin will clear out SAL for the storm behind it that will develop at a lower latitude.
Quoting 3728. LargoFl:


Welcome to Soggy Florida! We have not been the Sunshine State this summer that's for sure!
The area 10N 42W continues to show some form of organization. one can clearly see the clouds being ejected from the top the disturbance, signifying there is both convergence and divergence. could be the next invest
3743. barbamz
Short hello folks. Here are some news about the impacts of Utor ...

Fresh BBC weather video:
Powerful storm Utor update
15 August 2013 Last updated at 14:21
Ex-Typhoon Utor, the strongest storm so far this year in southern China, will be causing problems for a few more days. BBC Weather's Stav Danaos takes us through the forecast and provides a look at forecast rains for North East India, Bangladesh and North Burma.

Typhoon Utor hits southern China
At least one killed and five others missing after typhoon churns through southern China.
AlJazeera,15 Aug 2013 12:06, with a video report

Typhoon Utor has left at least one person dead and five others missing as it churned through southern China before weakening into a tropical storm, authorities have said.

After shutting down business in the financial centre of Hong Kong and sinking a cargo ship, Typhoon Utor brought high winds and torrential rain to Guangdong province on Thursday after making landfall.

These triggered flooding and mountain torrents that led to the casualties, the provincial government said.

The typhoon had forced the closure of schools, offices, shopping centres and construction sites in cities along its path northwest across Guangdong.

Only minor damage was reported, a result, state media said, of strict adherence to orders to confine tens of thousands of fishing boats to port and evacuate vulnerable people to shelters.

Thousands of travelers were stranded by the suspension of flights and ferry services.

By Thursday morning, the force of the storm had weakened considerably, with sustained winds at its centre falling to speeds of 85 km per hour as it
headed northwest through Guangxi province, about 350km west of Hong Kong. ...

Quoting 3706. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

92L is frazzling. Looks mostly like land interaction diffluence, energy seems to be elongating further with part south of Cozumel and part trying to find the southern Gulf through the channel. I see no evidence of a circulation. I'm surprised development chances remain at 50% in the present.





Y'all can wrestle over it today, it gives me little concern. If by chance it can still do anything at all, I'd hope TX finds some rain from some part of whatever it is. Sure doesn't look like much right now.

Have a good day, all! :)


I am rather STUNNED that 92L did not take off yesterday evening.....it sure looked to be close to a Depression....Too many circulations fighting and SHEAR was still a little high. Should go West as a weak system would.
Quoting 3738. Articuno:


His name is Goose, he's a Golden Retriever and he's 5 years old now. :)

WOW. just GORGEOUS! And great pictures Ryan!! Unreal!!! The ones where you are aiming right up at the tree canopy's in Autumn are BREATHTAKING!!!! :) I of course can't help but notice trees. They are my life. lol
Hmm, all this GOM talk has got me thinking. Has there ever been a storm that just rode the Gulf coast for an absurdly long time? Kind of like what Cyclone Steve did to Australia.
3747. cg2916
I don't think I've ever seen anything go from an almost certain development to doubting it will ever develop so fast. We will have to watch it in 48 hours when it is back over the GOM to see if it tries anything else.

And it will be interesting to see if recon will still go out there today. Waiting on the POTD.
3748. Grothar
GFS ensemble models.

Hard for me to see the E storm.

Look like The E is still in the convergence zone.

Me thought they had to be clear of ITCZ to be named?

Me just Loco?
Quoting 3740. CybrTeddy:


Reminds me of Ana/Bill in 2009. Erin will clear out SAL for the storm behind it that will develop at a lower latitude.


Bro..the one behind Erin will be a BIGG'N.....it looks impressive over Africa already. Probably the first Major in the making.
3751. SRQfl
Looks like the ULL N of the Yucatan is trying to eat 92l. Or at least rip it in half.
Quoting 3748. Grothar:
GFS ensemble models.



Trending south?
Erin maybe a concern later in the future.
Quoting 3750. TampaSpin:


Bro..the one behind Erin will be a BIGG'N.....it looks impressive over Africa already. Probably the first Major in the making.


It's that time of year where these things do happen.
Quoting 3744. TampaSpin:


I am rather STUNNED that 92L did not take off yesterday evening.....it sure looked to be close to a Depression....Too many circulations fighting and SHEAR was still a little high. Should go West as a weak system would.
I knew there was problems once refire did not occur by 3 am but iam happy in a way really I did not want a monster in the gulf anyway to be honest

so this is for the best right now and we see what happens on the other side if it survives the yuc crossing at all
Quoting 3751. SRQfl:
Looks like the ULL N of the Yucatan is trying to eat 92l. Or at least rip it in half.


I guess now we know why 92L didn't develop.
Quoting 3755. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I knew there was problems once refire did not occur by 3 am but iam happy in a way really I did not want a monster in the gulf anyway to be honest

so this is for the best right now and we see what happens on the other side if it survives the yuc crossing at all


YEP ...ME TOO...THANK YOU ULL...:)
3758. Nimitz
Quoting 3741. 69Viking:


Welcome to Soggy Florida! We have not been the Sunshine State this summer that's for sure!


Got 3-1/2" last night in Jacksonville.
3759. cg2916


This is a major problem for 92L: the vorticity is extremely elongated, being stretched out by the upper low to its north. You can really see the stretching force in the 500mb level.

Also, note how in the first image, as someone mentioned earlier, the wave in front of Erin has two areas of vorticity, which will be a problem if it wants to consolidate.

3760. Grothar
Quoting 3639. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah I know you get those every know and then. But Doc wants us to ignore those people and move on so that is what I try to do eventhough it is hard sometimes and especially when you want to call this guy out.


That is why there are anti-testosterone pills. Sometimes it takes more courage to walk away than confront someone. (I found out it is also easier on your face)
Never turn your back on a 40W Seed. Not even for one second.

I know most people don't care but it looks like there will be a new depression south of Hawaii
3763. cg2916
Quoting 3762. Doppler22:
I know most people don't care but it looks like there will be a new depression south of Hawaii


And thankfully, not a threat to land.

3764. LargoFl
92L just showed us one thing SO FAR....that if you don't have Model support from both the ECM and the GFS...WE PROBABLY DON'T HAVE MUCH!
3766. Grothar
Quoting 3750. TampaSpin:


Bro..the one behind Erin will be a BIGG'N.....it looks impressive over Africa already. Probably the first Major in the making.


Teddy and I covered that this morning, big T. Some of use have been following it since it was in east Africa.
We have named it son of Blobzilla. No harm in showing it again. The doc is probably ready to interrupt us anyway.






This is only temporary, it'll develop once in gulf. It also get everyone's attention again too!
My shift, Off to Hospital. Be back 2 or 3 days. You all play nice.

It's really hard to find the center of 92l because of the exploding convection.
Later today, I expect to see a naked center as it crosses the Yucutan.
Sometime tonight or tomorrow we will see the center make it into the GOM.

I really think 92L will make a come back once the center gets into the GOM.
Not sure how strong it will get (T.D. or T.S.), but it will make a come back.
Quoting 3765. TampaSpin:
92L just showed us one thing SO FAR....that if you don't have Model support from both the ECM and the GFS...WE PROBABLY DON'T HAVE MUCH!


Agree. I think we all got head faked yesterday.
Quoting 3761. Rmadillo:
Never turn your back on a 40W Seed. Not even for one second.

what is going on with 40 west
92L looks ragged, for sure.

An armadillo has a better chance of successfully crossing a road than 92L has of crossing the Yucutan with any semblance of being a threat Downstream.
3773. SRQfl
Quoting 3756. 69Viking:


I guess now we know why 92L didn't develop.

Yeah, I guess with the CIMSS site down most of yesterday many(including myself) couldn't see what was going on up there. Brings me back to the early 90s where we just had sat loops on TWC and dial-a-buoy... Maybe go to the library and use internet access to reach primitive NOAA site and check weather balloon/dropsondes data.
3774. ricderr
Alrighty then........just a little recap....


yesterday most were onboard with a solution that 92L would be named before 93L...without being judgmental let me say.........FAIL


two days ago many were offering up solutions that models of 92L would move east impacting florida ...without being judgmental let me say.........FAIL


of course no one remembers your names....cough cough....no one would be judgemental except for one thing...

there were a few...who when offered up words of wisdom such as....whoa...wait til we see formation...or....whoa....let's get a circulation before worrying about extreme storms....or steering currents do not support anything further than a panhandle landfall....and even....texas may be impacted...and those bloggers...were shamed and ridiculed....yet they've proved correct.....makes you say HMMMMMMMMMMM

3775. icmoore
Quoting 3760. Grothar:


That is why there are anti-testosterone pills. Sometimes it takes more courage to walk away than confront someone. (I found out it is also easier on your face)


Just say what Jackie Gleason use to say :)) "Pins and needles, needles and pins, it's a happy man that grins," LOL. Good morning, Gro :) and everybody.
3776. cg2916
Quoting 3772. Rmadillo:
92L looks ragged, for sure.

An armadillo has a better chance of successfully crossing a road than 92L has of crossing the Yucutan with any semblance threat Downstream.


Not saying this is set in stone at all, but we've seen storms explode in the BOC before, so this thing is still a threat. But it does have to cross the Yucatan intact.
3777. Grothar
Just in


3778. LargoFl
TENNIS BALL SIZED HAILSTONES??.......................... GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WYOMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING AIDE BY THE
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 2 AM. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON
TODAY.

$$
Quoting 3766. Grothar:


Teddy and I covered that this morning, big T. Some of use have been following it since it was in east Africa.
We have named it son of Blobzilla. No harm in showing it again. The doc is probably ready to interrupt us anyway.








LOOKS LIKE AT BAT....LOL HOPE NO PSYCH...MAJOR ON ...i'm in trouble...LOL
3780. Grothar
Quoting 3775. icmoore:


Just say what Jackie Gleason use to say :)) "Pins and needles, needles and pins, it's a happy man that grins," LOL. Good morning, Gro :) and everybody.


Morning ic.
I do see a spin at 40 west!
3782. ricderr
Bro..the one behind Erin will be a BIGG'N.....it looks impressive over Africa already. Probably the first Major in the making.



this sounds good...and possibly could be correct...but not based on the claim made......we've seen many good early strong storms die due to poor atmospheric conditions ahead of its path....if it is to become a "biggin" it will not be due to it's appearance now, but to the conditions ahead of it that will be favorable for strnghtening
3783. Grothar
Quoting 3779. TampaSpin:


LOOKS LIKE AT BAT....LOL


Out of where. :)
3784. LargoFl
3785. Nimitz
Quoting 3728. LargoFl:


Joy...getting tired of having the crap scared out of me on the way home every day, driving in pouring rain, flooded streets and dodging tornados...
Oh it'll be intact after the Yucatan. It's flat their whether developed or not we seen it many times before.
3787. Grothar
Interesting little twist

Quoting 3766. Grothar:


Teddy and I covered that this morning, big T. Some of use have been following it since it was in east Africa.
We have named it son of Blobzilla. No harm in showing it again. The doc is probably ready to interrupt us anyway.







Major Maybe?
Quoting 3783. Grothar:


Out of where. :)


I think Meatloaf answered that in song that better than anybody!
I think many are missing out on the fact that yesterday at this time the wave was in an area where the trade winds were blocked by the lower level ridge (155 iso in this:


pic, GEFS analysis for 6z yesterday); Notice the trade wind flow sharply lower in velocity on the wind barbs.

This was causing additional low level convergence along the wave axis and supported decent convection.

On the 6z GEFS analysis today, a much different look to the lower level flow is seen.



Notice the same 155 iso now pulled off to the N and the trade flow no longer being piled up in the W. Caribbean.
Well the ULL din't move off in time as originally
thought, and it is rather elongated and narrow.
Definitely not much help to a potentially developing
TC. Not closing both eyes on 92-L until the big boys do.
Quoting 3787. Grothar:
Interesting little twist



Maybe the weekend in the FL Panhandle will be salvaged after all.
Quoting 3774. ricderr:
Alrighty then........just a little recap....


yesterday most were onboard with a solution that 92L would be named before 93L...without being judgmental let me say.........FAIL


two days ago many were offering up solutions that models of 92L would move east impacting florida ...without being judgmental let me say.........FAIL


of course no one remembers your names....cough cough....no one would be judgemental except for one thing...

there were a few...who when offered up words of wisdom such as....whoa...wait til we see formation...or....whoa....let's get a circulation before worrying about extreme storms....or steering currents do not support anything further than a panhandle landfall....and even....texas may be impacted...and those bloggers...were shamed and ridiculed....yet they've proved correct.....makes you say HMMMMMMMMMMM



Well, what's left of 92L after it crosses the Yuc seems to dissipate into Tampico, so now my attention is on the 10N40W blob. That little guy could go *anywhere*. And be *any* size.
Where do think the next invest(94L) will form.
A BLOBZILLA on Africa
B little twist in the central Atlantic

A think it's B.
Quoting 3729. TampaSpin:
Erin will clean the house of Dust and leave low pressure in its wake for others too follow....Could get very busy in the Atlantic.
if the atlantic could have a discussion it would go something like this.
SAL: in full control eating up all storms that pass near me. ahh enjoying this 2 and a half month dominance!


African continent: Ok guys, its the middle of August now.. got some work to do now... i`ll send out erin to do my dirty work and attack that pesky SAL and show him who`s boss... once the job is completed i`ll send Fernand, Gabrielle, and Humberto to do the real task!

lol gotta active imagination :P
10 north and 40 west I see it!
LOOK at the Shear on 92L....Just shows how hard SHEAR is to forecast at 12hrs ,,,,48hrs is like throwing darts....LOOK at these shear maps....Not even clost to being accurate.





For folks on the Gulf Coast, it is very good news that the ULL over the Gulf ripped 92L into 2 pieces, one headed north into FL and another west. This was depicted by the GFS a few runs back. In any case, I am HAPPY my forecast yesterday for 92L to strengthen, move north in response to a trough and get into the GOM to attain hurricane strength will not materialize.

If it were not for the ULL over the GOM, 92L could easily have been a significant and dangerous hurricane headed for the Gulf Coast, something that would be very bad news.

Hopefully the remnant moisture from 92L can give parts of Texas some much needed rain in 3-5 days.
Quoting 3786. RGVtropicalWx13:
Oh it'll be intact after the Yucatan. It's flat their whether developed or not we seen it many times before.


activity to its north and nw may rip it in two hopefully

we will see
I got down to 52 degrees at my house last night. Phew, that's fairly chilly for August. I wonder how fall will be...

See favorable.
Again I would not move off to the next wave.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
new update on tropical storm erin soon
Quoting 3797. hurricanes2018:
10 north and 40 west I see it!


Its embedded within the ITCZ.....there is always spin there.
3808. tj175
Quoting 3705. Autistic2:
Off topic, sorry but just way big happy

After 16 days in hospital with a liver infection, Docs at wolfson children hospital say my little (13) girl is going to be fine and come home in a week or so! Me so happy!



Many blessings and thank God for her speedy recovery!!!!
Good morning I see 92L was able to generate some thunderstorms near the center, but it is nearing the coast the feature to the north of it is interesting. Also I see we have a new tropical storm Erin which puts us at 5/0/0.





Looks like we may have Tropical Depression One-C very soon. It's been a while since the Central Pacific has spit one out on their own, without the aid of an already existing Eastern Pacific storm. :)

3811. TxLisa
Quoting 2702. redwagon:


Happy, happy, happy. I got the season opener of Duck Dynasty, Sonic shake, onion rings, and a low that may bring Texans some rain.

HappyX3.
ahhh...the simple things in life are the best! And yes rain for Texas = happy, happy, happy!