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Carbon Dioxide, Congress, and the President -- 50 Years Ago

By: Bob Henson 4:32 PM GMT on February 07, 2015

The human-induced rise in greenhouse gases typically heats up the room when it’s discussed on Capitol Hill. Yet the issue scarcely gained notice when it was brought to the attention of Congress by President Lyndon Johnson a half-century ago this weekend. On February 8, 1965, Johnson delivered a “Special Message to the Congress on Conservation and Restoration of Natural Beauty.” The bulk of the message dealt with land and water conservation, highway beautification, and other goals now considered mainstream. Tucked midway through the text was this observation: “Large-scale pollution of air and waterways is no respecter of political boundaries, and its effects extend far beyond those who cause it. Air pollution is no longer confined to isolated places. This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through radioactive materials and a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”


Figure 1. Scenes like this--from an industrial section of Cleveland, Ohio, circa 1973--were once commonplace in the largest U.S. cities. Image credit: Frank J. Aleksandrowicz/National Archives and Records Administration.

Johnson’s message came years before passage of the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act, at a time when air- and stream-fouling pollutants were far more prevalent than today and litter was a national scourge yet to be seriously tackled. As the public discussion turned to these assorted but related threats in the late 1960s, carbon dioxide remained far in the background, but concern among scientists been building for years. A crucial paper by Roger Revelle and Hans Seuss (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), published in the journal Tellus in February 1957, noted the rise of carbon dioxide levels and warned: “Human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few centuries we are returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years.”

A few months after that paper, Charles David Keeling launched the routine measurements of carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa that continue today. The data quickly made it clear that CO2 in the global atmosphere was increasing year over year. The topic even gained enough traction for famed director Frank Capra (“It’s a Wonderful Life”) to include a reference to to it in an hour-long TV special in 1958, “The Unchained Goddess.” Part of the nine-episode Bell Laboratory Science Series, which aired between 1956 and 1964, the program focused mainly on weather but warned of the ultimate potential for dire effects from the unchecked growth of carbon dioxide. It noted that, at the time, more than 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide were being emitted each year due to human activity. Emissions in 2013 totalled more than 39 billion tons (36 billion metric tons).


Video 1. Here’s a dramatic one-minute excerpt from the 1958 film by director Frank Capra illustrating the expected effects of high-end global warming. Capra was a scientist who graduated from California Institute of Technology in 1918 and did many science films for education while working for Bell Labs.

I touched base this week with Spencer Weart, author of the superb book “The Discovery of Global Warming,” whose entire contents (plus extra material) are available online through the American Institute of Physics. Weart pointed out: “Revelle and Keeling already understood that the carbon dioxide buildup could have dangerous long-term impacts, such as a devastating rise of sea level.” A few months after Johnson’s message to Congress, a presidential advisory committee produced “Restoring the Quality of Our Environment.” This report (see PDF) included a section calling out possible effects of an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, including melting of the Antarctic ice cap, warming of sea water, increased acidity of freshwater, and an increase in photosynthesis. The report concluded, rather dryly, that “ . . . climatic changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings.”

For more on Johnson’s message to Congress, and a related conversation that was tape-recorded in the White House just days earlier, see this excellent Daily Climate article by Marianne Lavelle.

Bob Henson

Climate Change Politics Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1.5 inches of rain for us in the central part of the SF Bay Area , most of which fell during a frontal passage last night. No atmospheric river in sight, and certainly no epic anything. North coast got more rain, but that's par for the course. Again, nothing epic. Time to start analyzing the data and perhaps refining models.

Meanwhile, a lobe of that Arctic outbreak out of Alaska has reached the jet core, but modified now by ocean temps that remain above normal, and cutoff by a new frontal boundary. Still, there's a developing system under a jet max at our key benchmark of 30 N 135 W which includes some of this modified Arctic air, so maybe we get something more. Unfortunately, the tropical tap is off, out of phase, so again, no "Pineapple Connection". We'll just have to rely on our own above-normal SSTs.
Fascinating about Frank Capra. And I wasn't aware until just now that he had a science degree.
I'm starting to see a small warming trend in sst's along the gulf stream off the coast of Florida and Georgia. I got this from my local weather provider which has buoys pointing at low 80s in the CCaribbean, mid 70s in the central gulf and upper 70s to near 80 east of the lesser Antilles.
Quoting Bob Henson (himself quoting Roger Revelle and Hans Seuss):
Human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few centuries we are returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years.
That was almost 60 years ago--yet there are entire websites devoted to promulgating the lie that Al Gore and tree-hugging environmentalists invented the whole CO2-induced warming thing just a decade or so ago.

Go figure.

And, of course, while Revelle and Seuss wrote of incipient GW in 1957, that itself was more than 130 years after Joseph Fourier calculated that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere, and just under 100 years after John Tyndall discovered that some gases block infrared radiation, and suggested that changes in the concentration of those gases could bring about climate change. And it was back in 1896--119 years ago--that Svante Arrhenius published his first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2. (Arrhenius famously thought that, due to the relatively low amount of human-caused CO2 emissions at the time, warming would take many thousands of years to occur. Talk about your major understatements...)
Thank You Mr. Henson for the new blog, concerning humanity & all that theorized (long ago) how mankind was damaging its home.  (3rd time editing bold text, was the charm)
CREDIT:: NOAA, Washington State
SUBJECT:: Will the real Atmospheric waterway please squeeze out (add To Tell the Truth - into tune here) BTW don't ask for this guest to sign in might look indecent, like Benny Hill watering his plants.

http://youtu.be/8fWo7sT7iTQ

over heard on a radio call in show the other day..the caller said some scientist had mentioned that the large scale taking of sea salt..the kind people use for cooking (I guess)..was causing ocean sea water to increase its acidity.................well the host mentioned that CO2 was probably the real cause but marine life may already be feeling its effects..and when you stop and think about..world wide..just how many people depend on fish etc for food...this could really be a dangerous time ahead.
Funny thing is, some of us would jump at the chance to spend some time here! It looks cozy, and a great view.

White Mountain Summit Research Station-Sierra Crest/Elev 14,246 ft
Wind Gust (24 hr max) 153 mph @ 3:00PM PST Friday
"quality check" flag on measurement set to "Caution".





White Mountain Research Center Home Page
IF you want to know more about Ocean acidification here is one excellent site I found........Link
Quoting 4. Neapolitan:

That was almost 60 years ago--yet there are entire websites devoted to promulgating the lie that Al Gore and tree-hugging environmentalists invented the whole CO2-induced warming thing just a decade or so ago.

Go figure.

And, of course, while Revelle and Seuss wrote of incipient GW in 1957, that itself was more than 130 years after Joseph Fourier calculated that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere, and just under 100 years after John Tyndall discovered that some gases block infrared radiation, and suggested that changes in the concentration of those gases could bring about climate change. And it was back in 1896--119 years ago--that Svante Arrhenius published his first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2. (Arrhenius famously thought that, due to the relatively low amount of human-caused CO2 emissions at the time, warming would take many thousands of years to occur. Talk about your major understatements...)
Yes, all true, but to give Arrhenius credit, he couldn't have predicted the massive rise in fossil fuel use in the coming decades. No one could have.
Looks like favorable Atlantic sst setupLink
Quoting 6. LargoFl:

over heard on a radio call in show the other day..the caller said some scientist had mentioned that the large scale taking of sea salt..the kind people use for cooking (I guess)..was causing ocean sea water to increase its acidity.................well the host mentioned that CO2 was probably the real cause but marine life may already be feeling its effects..and when you stop and think about..world wide..just how many people depend on fish etc for food...this could really be a dangerous time ahead.
That shows how little many people understand how chemistry works. They have no clue about chemical processes and absolutely no concept of scale. It's the gas man, simple carbonic acid, just like in your sparkling beverage.
Looks like favorable Atlantic sst setup.Link
Looks like favorable Atlantic sst setup.Link
Quoting 12. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Looks like favorable Atlantic sst setup.Link

The Atlantic SST setup is nowhere near favorable. We've got cooler than average waters in the East Atlantic, warmer than average waters in the subtropics, and cooler than normal waters south of Greenland and Iceland. This is a negative Atlantic tripole. The Main Development Region (which stretches from the Yucatan to Africa south of 20N) has generally been cooler than the rest of the global tropics, which is not a good configuration to focus upward motion in the basin. With the Pacific on fire (that's an exaggeration) right now, it makes sense we'll continue to see upper-level divergence (rising air) there like we have for the past 3 years, which leads to upper-level convergence (sinking air) across the Atlantic.

Of course, that all hinges on the idea that the pattern doesn't change between now and the start of the season. That's why it's important to monitor trends once we get closer to the event (i.e. April and May). But right now, things aren't looking so hot.
Quoting 11. bwtranch:

That shows how little many people understand how chemistry works. They have no clue about chemical processes and absolutely no concept of scale. It's the gas man, simple carbonic acid, just like in your sparkling beverage.
well whatever the cause,sea life is going to feel this acid effect in the oceans,future generations of humans may also suffer as the sea life they depend on, dies off..really one scary thought.
Thanks tropical
Looks like the clipper coming out of Canada will take a weird track over PA and the move/reform to the southeast over NC or SC. Such a track could produce some light snow showers over the Mid-Atlantic region as the arctic boundary advances a bit farther south. Regardless, things look to be rainy for much of the Ohio River Valley and those south of the NY/PA border until the low reforms to the south.
Where are the subtropics located? Is that off the us east coast?
Quoting 14. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Atlantic SST setup is nowhere near favorable. We've got cooler than average waters in the East Atlantic, warmer than average waters in the subtropics, and cooler than normal waters south of Greenland and Iceland. This is a negative Atlantic tripole. The Main Development Region (which stretches from the Yucatan to Africa south of 20N) has generally been cooler than the rest of the global tropics, which is not a good configuration to focus upward motion in the basin. With the Pacific on fire (that's an exaggeration) right now, it makes sense we'll continue to see upper-level divergence (rising air) there like we have for the past 3 years, which leads to upper-level convergence (sinking air) across the Atlantic.

Of course, that all hinges on the idea that the pattern doesn't change between now and the start of the season. That's why it's important to monitor trends once we get closer to the event (i.e. April and May). But right now, things aren't looking so hot.
Aren't looking so hot<---- ;)
Quoting 19. Gearsts:

Aren't looking so hot<---- ;)

Pun was intended. ;)

Quoting 18. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Where are the subtropics located? Is that off the us east coast?

Generally 25N-45N latitude.
The GFS paints an additional 2ft of snow for Boston over the next 6 days in what is quickly becoming one of the more memorable New England winters in recent years.

Have you guys ever saw unfavorable setups like this, but environmental conditions rapidly improved resulting in a very active season.?
Quoting 22. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Have you guys ever saw unfavorable setups like this, but environmental conditions rapidly improved resulting in a very active season.?

2012. Sea surface temperature anomalies were pretty lackluster across the Atlantic prior to the start of the season, but they warmed up by the peak. Equatorial Pacific waters were warmer than average without an official El Nino declaration like the past two years, which sheared the Gulf and Caribbean, and dry air dominated areas east of the Lesser Antilles. Most of the activity ended up in the subtropics where wind shear was lower, and we ended up with the third most active season on record.
24. DDR
Good afternoon
One week without measurable rainfall here in Trinidad,i'd say we're actually having a dry season,haven't had much of dry season the past 4 years.
This may happen this year. Well i think they start warming up after February. From the looks of it most of the activity may end up in the Caribbean and off the east coast. I just want to see some good hurricanes, this would be my first.
Tropical Depression Two look like a tropical storm to me!!!!
Thanks for the Informative Post, Mr. Henson...


we need to watch the rain and snow line here right now new haven may get 2 inches of snow right now but if the storm move littie more to the south new haven will get 10 inches of snow!
What are long range forecast models showing for the upcoming season, things like itcz,monsoon trough,and water vapor?
Quoting 22. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Have you guys ever saw unfavorable setups like this, but environmental conditions rapidly improved resulting in a very active season.?
And also this can happen :(



vs
Quoting 29. tiggerhurricanes2001:

What are long range forecast models showing for the upcoming season, things like itcz,monsoon trough,and water vapor?
February 7, 2015
94W is now 02W..recent ASCAT.. Looks sort of open on the NW side..

A few pink pixels showing up for 10 in rainfall in northern CA.

Good to see that old Frank Capra clip..

It's something how this topic has done political circles even in the face of ozone depleting gases being addressed.
Lots of moisture heading to N CA.

Well maybe it'll be something like 2010.
Winter Storm Watch
Statement as of 10:13 AM EST on February 07, 2015

...Winter Storm Watch now in effect from late Sunday night
through late Monday night...


* locations...Orange and Putnam counties of New York and the
northern portions of Fairfield...New Haven...Middlesex...and
New London counties of Connecticut.


* Hazard types...snow and freezing rain.


* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches...along
with around a tenth of an inch of ice.


* Visibilities...one half mile or less at times.


* Timing...a mix of light snow and freezing rain will begin Sunday
afternoon...but then becomes steadier late Sunday night. The
precipitation will change back to all snow late Monday morning.


* Impacts...hazardous travel due to significant snow and ice
accumulations along with reduced visibilities.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...


A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Well do you think el nino will develop resulting in another below average season or will neutral conditions continue resulting in an average to above average season?
10 day Euro fun...



I'll see myself out
Quoting 34. Skyepony:

94W is now 02W..recent ASCAT.. Looks sort of open on the NW side..



It doesn't look like the pass got good data under that convective burst to me. Lots of barbs going random directions in there. That row of barbs going the complete opposite direction of the circulation right next to ones going the expected direction is particularly telling to me.

The lack of any 35 kt barbs is a little surprising to me, but then again, that pass is nearly 8 hours old now and 02W appears to have continued to organize since then. I'm still thinking we'll see a tropical storm at the next update.
Quoting 34. Skyepony:

94W is now 02W..recent ASCAT.. Looks sort of open on the NW side..




Jma just upgraded to TS HIGOS.


TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 7 February 2015

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N1125'(11.4)
E15725'(157.4)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

well, since the JMA advisory has already been posted.. here's the Fundi latest advisory. ;-)

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI (09-20142015)
22:00 PM RET February 7 2015
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fundi (992 hPa) located at 25.5S 43.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
Extending up to 30 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 28.1S 44.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 31.6S 44.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 33.9S 39.1E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 37.2S 38.1E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
=================
During the past 6 hours, deep convective activity has slightly strengthened in the south of the system that is progressively moving away from the coast of Madagascar. The microwave pictures SSMIS at 1648z show the low level circulation center slightly shifted west of the convective mass.

The system is currently moving over warm enough waters. Down to 26.0S, the ocean heat content is good enough, and it will drop regularly thereafter until reaching 30.0S. The westerly shear is likely to relax slightly during the next 12 hours, and then to increase again while it will turn northwesterly to northerly ...from Sunday night and beyond, since evolving over cooler sea surface temperatures and an increasing shear environment, Fundi should start to loose its tropical characteristics.

Until Sunday,the system should remain on the same track along the western edge of the subtropical ridge and towards a weakness located near 45.0E. Fundi should accelerate gradually its motion, mainly on Sunday. Monday, the weakness should withdraw and a transient ridge is expected to build south of the system and bend the track temporarily westwards. Tuesday, the ridge shift rapidly to the west of the system and a new poleward turn is expected. During the middle of next week, Fundi is expected to dissipate within the mid-lat westerlies.

Fundi continues bringing locally heavy rainfall over the two-thirds south of Madagascar within the convergent northerly flow in the weak of the system.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
This may happen this year. Well i think they start warming up after February. From the looks of it most of the activity may end up in the Caribbean and off the east coast. I just want to see some good hurricanes, this would be my first.
Assuming you live to be of average age, you have about 70 years to see hurricanes, so you're not going to miss out on one. :-) I think you're getting off on the wrong track though if you want to study meteorology. First, there are no models of any reliability that go out further than seven days let alone out to May or June. One of the major jobs of a meteorologist is observations, which only come with the passage of time...and patience. There are plenty of things happening with weather right now that, if you start learning about them, will help you when hurricane season rolls around. You need to get used to tracking actual observed weather rather than just looking at models. You'll start to get a feel of how things are shaping up far more from tracking observations than spending your time hunting up models.

Another thing to consider is not being over reliant on SST's as any sort of predictor for hurricane season. We have had above average SST's for most of the past three seasons and yet hurricane activity has been lower than average. SST's are kind of like driving. You need to start the car before you do anything else but, once the engine's running, things get a lot more complicated. Once you know the SST's at the start of hurricane season you're pretty much done with that aspect. They won't cool off before the end of the season and, no matter how high they get, they aren't going to spawn a hurricane out of nothing. You're young. Start learning about the other couple of thousand things that have to happen in just the right order to get a hurricane. Maybe someday you'll have it figured out.
Quoting BayFog:

1.5 inches of rain for us in the central part of the SF Bay Area , most of which fell during a frontal passage last night. No atmospheric river in sight, and certainly no epic anything. North coast got more rain, but that's par for the course. Again, nothing epic. Time to start analyzing the data and perhaps refining models.

Meanwhile, a lobe of that Arctic outbreak out of Alaska has reached the jet core, but modified now by ocean temps that remain above normal, and cutoff by a new frontal boundary. Still, there's a developing system under a jet max at our key benchmark of 30 N 135 E which includes some of this modified Arctic air, so maybe we get something more. Unfortunately, the tropical tap is off, out of phase, so again, no "Pineapple Connection". We'll just have to rely on our own above-normal SSTs.
I posted in the previous blog about my disappointed friends in Santa Rosa. The AR for northern California has definitely been more than a little shallow. Washington state is getting most of the full effects of the storm but lows that far north are almost always going to bring what we've seen - a decent but really average rainstorm. Monterrey had a good summary earlier this morning about what went wrong with this part of the forecast if you haven't read it yet. I'm really thinking that the NWS needs to dial up on uncertainty with forecasts like this and remind the public that a model is still just a model, not reality.
Quoting 44. Tropicsweatherpr:



Jma just upgraded to TS HIGOS.


TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 7 February 2015

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11�25'(11.4�)
E157�25'(157.4�)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)




Here is a more recent rapidscat, looks tighter on the west side.

Quoting 35. MahFL:

A few pink pixels showing up for 10 in rainfall in northern CA.



FYI... You'll get far better estimates using a multisensor approach over a single radar, un-bias-corrected approach. Try water.weather.gov

Quoting 47. sar2401:
'm really thinking that the NWS needs to dial up on uncertainty with forecasts like this and remind the public that a model is still just a model, not reality.

You can already view probabilistic precipitation forecasts here:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pqpf/conus_hpc_perce ntile.php?fpd=6
Quoting 1. BayFog:

...No atmospheric river in sight, and certainly no epic anything. North coast got more rain, but that's par for the course. Again, nothing epic. Time to start analyzing the data and perhaps refining models....

1) What exactly do you mean by "no atmospheric river in sight?" Are you claiming that the rainfall event in the NW CONUS was not an atmospheric river event?

2) The 7-day rainfall forecast from Jan 31, ending at 1200 UTC Feb 7th.


3) The 7-day rainfall accumulation ending at 1200 UTC Feb 7th.
http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?yday=14 23267200&yday_analysis=0&layer%5B%5D=0&layer%5B%5D =1&layer%5B%5D=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=NWS&units =engl&timeframe=last7days&product=observed&loc=reg ionWR

One of the better 7 day forecasts I've seen, honestly. In many areas, the rainfall forecast was underdone. For areas near San Francisco, it was very close. The general shape and location of rainfall maxima are very similar.
A little further up the coast.
N.W. Washington state is showing why it has the highest average annual rainfall of anywhere in the lower 48.
So guys.
I suggested a question on trivia crack that says..
What is the strongest part of a hurricane known as?...

My correct answer was eyewall.

The community rejected the question because it was a "wrong answer"

Am I wrong or are Americans not as bright as they should be..?
21:00 UTC JTWC warning for TS HIGOS.

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
So guys.
I suggested a question on trivia crack that says..
What is the strongest part of a hurricane known as?...

My correct answer was eyewall.

The community rejected the question because it was a "wrong answer"

Am I wrong or are Americans not as bright as they should be..?

You could say that, but then again that would be a gross generalization of 316 million people.
Just a few updates from Seattle...

Special Weather Statement about Landslides is still in effect. The USGS is still producing their landslide probabilities statements, and we are still above the AWI threshold.

Passenger trains are not running between Everett and Seattle, and between Kelso WA and Portland, OR due to landslides. (They still let non passenger trains through. There are some pretty interesting you tube videos of landslides taking out trains in WA)

We've received nearly 60% of our monthly average rain in the last 72 hours with 2.56 inches. Thankfully we'll get a brief break before the stronger system on Sunday rolls through.

The winds are starting to pick up a bit, with a recent gust to 32 about 20 minutes ago. Nothing too crazy though, we don't even have a wind advisory or anything.



Freezing Rain Threat Again For NYC
For the second week in a row, New York City could see freezing rain Monday.

Another Cold Blast Next Week
Another blast of cold air will cover much of the nation by the end of next week.
Timing
Saturday: This 3-4 day long snow event began late Friday night as an initial strip of light snow swept from northern Minnesota over the northern Great Lakes. This initial stripe of snow will quickly spread into New York state and New England Saturday.

Behind that first snow stripe, a second more expansive stripe of light to moderate snow will once again blanket northern Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes Saturday, quickly spreading into central and Upstate New York and New England Saturday evening.
Quoting 54. JrWeathermanFL:

So guys.
I suggested a question on trivia crack that says..
What is the strongest part of a hurricane known as?...

My correct answer was eyewall.

The community rejected the question because it was a "wrong answer"

Am I wrong or are Americans not as bright as they should be..?


Did you ask them what their "Correct Answer was?"
Quoting 53. Sfloridacat5:

N.W. Washington state is showing why it has the highest average annual rainfall of anywhere in the lower 48.



The Olympic National Park receives over 12 feet of rain on average each year. This is especially true in the Hoh Rainforest, located within the park. The areas of intense rainfall are a result of the Olympic Mountain Range. I love these mountains for many reasons, not least of all is the Olympic Rain Shadow that often keeps Seattle drier than our neighbors to north and south! However, in my opinion they are best visited in the Summer.
Quoting 61. hurricanes2018:

Timing
Saturday: This 3-4 day long snow event began late Friday night as an initial strip of light snow swept from northern Minnesota over the northern Great Lakes. This initial stripe of snow will quickly spread into New York state and New England Saturday.

Behind that first snow stripe, a second more expansive stripe of light to moderate snow will once again blanket northern Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes Saturday, quickly spreading into central and Upstate New York and New England Saturday evening.


Tropical Storm Higos

Tropical Storm Higos
Last Updated Feb 8, 2015 18 GMT
Location 11.6N 157.7E Movement N
Wind 40 MPH
Quoting 62. PedleyCA:



Did you ask them what their "Correct Answer was?"


I don't think you can't do that to my knowledge. The community is a bunch of random people who play the game. Im assuming they put eye.
Possible impacts:

Although the natural absorption of CO2 by the world's oceans helps mitigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO2, it is believed that the resulting decrease in pH will have negative consequences, primarily for oceanic calcifying organisms. These span the food chain from autotrophs to heterotrophs and include organisms such as coccolithophores, corals, foraminifera, echinoderms, crustaceans and molluscs. As described above, under normal conditions, calcite and aragonite are stable in surface waters since the carbonate ion is at supersaturating concentrations. However, as ocean pH falls, the concentration of carbonate ions required for saturation to occur increases, and when carbonate becomes undersaturated, structures made of calcium carbonate are vulnerable to dissolution. Therefore, even if there is no change in the rate of calcification, the rate of dissolution of calcareous material increases.

Research has already found that corals, coccolithophore algae, coralline algae, foraminifera, shellfish and pteropods experience reduced calcification or enhanced dissolution when exposed to elevated CO2.

The Royal Society published a comprehensive overview of ocean acidification, and its potential consequences, in June 2005. However, some studies have found different response to ocean acidification, with coccolithophore calcification and photosynthesis both increasing under elevated atmospheric pCO2, an equal decline in primary production and calcification in response to elevated CO2 or the direction of the response varying between species. A study in 2008 examining a sediment core from the North Atlantic found that while the species composition of coccolithophorids has remained unchanged for the industrial period 1780 to 2004, the calcification of coccoliths has increased by up to 40% during the same time. And another study in 2010 from Stony Brook University drew a dismal conclusion that while some areas are overharvested and other fishing grounds are being restored, because of ocean acidification it may be impossible to bring back many previous shellfish populations. While the full ecological consequences of these changes in calcification are still uncertain, it appears likely that many calcifying species will be adversely affected.

When exposed in experiments to pH reduced by 0.2 to 0.4, larvae of a temperate brittlestar, a relative of the common sea star, fewer than 0.1 percent survived more than eight days. There is also a suggestion that a decline in the coccolithophores may have secondary effects on climate, contributing to global warming by decreasing the Earth's albedo via their effects on oceanic cloud cover.

The fluid in the internal compartments where corals grow their exoskeleton is also extremely important for calcification growth. When the saturation rate of aragonite in the external seawater is at ambient levels, the corals will grow their aragonite crystals rapidly in their internal compartments, hence their exoskeleton grows rapidly. If the level of aragonite in the external seawater is lower than the ambient level, the corals have to work harder to maintain the right balance in the internal compartment. When that happens, the process of growing the crystals slows down, and this slows down the rate of how much their exoskeleton is growing. Depending on how much aragonite is in the surrounding water, the corals may even stop growing because the levels of aragonite are too low to pump in to the internal compartment. They could even dissolve faster than they can make the crystals to their skeleton, depending on the aragonite levels in the surrounding water.

Ocean acidification may also force some organisms to reallocate resources away from productive endpoints such as growth in order to maintain calcification.


Other biological impacts:

Aside from the slowing and/or reversing of calcification, organisms may suffer other adverse effects, either indirectly through negative impacts on food resources, or directly as reproductive or physiological effects. For example, the elevated oceanic levels of CO2 may produce CO2-induced acidification of body fluids, known as hypercapnia. Also, increasing ocean acidity is believed to have a range of direct consequences. For example, increasing acidity has been observed to: reduce metabolic rates in jumbo squid; depress the immune responses of blue mussels; and make it harder for juvenile clownfish to tell apart the smells of non-predators and predators, or hear the sounds of their predators. This is possibly because ocean acidification may alter the acoustic properties of seawater, allowing sound to propagate further, and increasing ocean noise. This impacts all animals that use sound for echolocation or communication. A study performed by PLOS ONE concluded that Atlantic longfin squid eggs took longer to hatch in acidified water. Additionally, the squid statolith, an internal structure that helps them sense movement, was smaller and malformed in the squid placed in sea water with a lower pH.


However, as with calcification, as yet there is not a full understanding of these processes in marine organisms or ecosystems. Shelled plankton species may flourish in altered oceans
how would ocean acidification affect commercial fisheries.........................Link
Quoting 63. Seattleite:



The Olympic National Park receives over 12 feet of rain on average each year. This is especially true in the Hoh Rainforest, located within the park. The areas of intense rainfall are a result of the Olympic Mountain Range. I love these mountains for many reasons, not least of all is the Olympic Rain Shadow that often keeps Seattle drier than our neighbors to north and south! However, in my opinion they are best visited in the Summer.

I spent two weeks in the Olympics once that turned into 11 days when I got trench foot and had to hike out 16 miles on bloody stumps. Rained the entire time except one afternoon when it stopped for about 45 minutes. Two inches of water running down the trail. Bread bags on our feet. If you ever want to try out your rain gear, go to the Olympics!

But I must say, Olympic National Park is a freaking Zoo! Elk, Mountain Goats, Grouse all pretty tame, especially the grouse. I probably could have reached out and grabbed this one on the side of the trail, but I wasn't that hungry so I let it be. Saw 11 bears in 11 days. Almost stepped on one where a noisy stream came down and we didn't hear each other. Amazing how fast a huge bear can run up an insanely steep hill!

In other news, nice day here around Humboldt Bay. Dry, a little breezy but not cold, with many sun breaks. I hope these last two busted forecasts don't cause people to ignore the next storm warning, but it seems inevitable unless we get a gully-washer before Monday. My friend from "upriver" (being the Klamath in this case, up above Somes Bar) said it was a big rain event for him. "Just like the old days." He spent most of the day hiking up and back to his water intake to clear debris to keep it open. Ah, life in the country...
"A British photographer made the lightning decision to quit the UK to chase storms Down Under and was rewarded with these striking shots. Oliver Kay, 40, left his dead-end IT job in Manchester almost a decade ago with wife Helen in search of a new life in Perth, Western Australia." Link

I think that the climate is changing due to the higher temperatures we're encountering.
Here's the patio furniture WUndercam we've been watching in Chestnut Hill, MA. Looked like snow fell off the roof in the night on it.

What exactly do you mean by "no atmospheric river in sight?" Are you claiming that the rainfall event in the NW CONUS was not an atmospheric river event?

Yep, that's what I'm saying.

And even if one were to allow that this rather ordinary wintertime front was such a deep layer tropical plume, it was far from being "the Big One" that was being implied initially. We had far more rain, for example, from the December event.

That day will come, but it hasn't yet.
Quoting 47. sar2401:

I posted in the previous blog about my disappointed friends in Santa Rosa. The AR for northern California has definitely been more than a little shallow. Washington state is getting most of the full effects of the storm but lows that far north are almost always going to bring what we've seen - a decent but really average rainstorm. Monterrey had a good summary earlier this morning about what went wrong with this part of the forecast if you haven't read it yet. I'm really thinking that the NWS needs to dial up on uncertainty with forecasts like this and remind the public that a model is still just a model, not reality.

A few obvious things were overlooked, probably in deference to computer models, which have in fact been remarkably more accurate in recent years, so understandable. But these models seem to have some blindspots when it comes to extratropical maritime systems which are inherently more complex than continental ones, and of course, there are fewer "ground" truth reporting stations, making inputs dicey.
Crews and property owners already struggling with up to several feet of snow on the ground and on some roofs will need to prepare and make room for additional snow.
Up to a few inches of snow can reach as far south as northern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley of New York and southern Connecticut.
02W
Quoting ScottLincoln:

FYI... You'll get far better estimates using a multisensor approach over a single radar, un-bias-corrected approach. Try water.weather.gov


You can already view probabilistic precipitation forecasts here:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pqpf/conus_hpc_perce n tile.php?fpd=6
Your link doesn't work but this does. Yes, Scott, I know where to find things like percentile precipitation forecasts. I've been following weather online since you were in grade school. That's why I said the public which, I can assure you, doesn't know how to find it and wouldn't know what they are looking at if they did find it. My point was to emphasize uncertainty in things like special weather statements and AFD's. Let me give you an example. This is a portion of the AFD from Thursday at 0434 PST:

THE HEAVY RAIN FROM SAN FRANCISCO TO MONTEREY WILL LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LEVEL STREET FLOODING WHILE THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FOR A MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. THE RFC PROJECTIONS FOR THE MIGHTY RUSSIAN RIVER SHOWING IT CURRENTLY AROUND 5 FEET AND THEN PEAKING AROUND 26 FEET AT GUERNEVILLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THESE VALUES COULD CHANGE AS UPSTREAM RAIN COULD BE EVEN HEAVIER ACROSS THE BASINS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. MONITOR STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE STARTS AT 29 FEET. NONETHELESS A RISE OF 20 FEET IN ABOUT 24 HOURS ON THE RUSSIAN WOULD INDEED BE IMPRESSIVE AND SPEAKS TO THE SHEAR VOLUME OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

What I'm suggesting is that words like Will could be replaced with words like May. A phrase like "could be even heavier" should include at least a nod to it also might not be as heavy. Using the adjective "Mighty" for the Russian River conveys a sense of the ominous that's not appropriate for a scientific statement. The Russian has always been a fast rising river and, without hunting up more details, it has risen more than 20 feet in 24 hours at least three times during my 30 years of close association with that drainage basin. Again, a part of the statement that's missing is some uncertainty about how high the stage will actually get on the low side. It's now Saturday afternoon. The river stage is 22 feet, not 26. That doesn't make any difference at these relatively low stages but, if it was 37 feet instead of 33, that means the difference between starting evacuations or not, so I don't want to hear how it's "only" a four foot miss. We don't really know what will happen with any weather system in 24 hours, so conveying some uncertainty on both the high and low side of projections does the public a better service.
Quoting 38. MahFL:

Lots of moisture heading to N CA.



Maybe. What you see in the graphic is mostly action being stirred up by a jet max, plus as I posted earlier, a bit of modified Arctic air that blew out of Alaska a few days ago. Whatever it is, it won't linger, so even if juicy, not for long in any given spot. On the bright side, with cold air available, it should dump some snow at lower elevations in the parched High Sierra.
TS HIGOS looking very good.

Quoting 29. tiggerhurricanes2001:

What are long range forecast models showing for the upcoming season, things like itcz,monsoon trough,and water vapor?


That I'll still be forever alone on Valentine's Day.

In all seriousness though, SSTs aren't your only factor. Ridging and troughing (aka steering patterns) are a factor, how moist or dry the air (you don't want dry, subsiding air that'll suppress thunderstorm development) is, the position of the ITCZ, the kelvin wave and the mjo. The ENSO can influence the Atlantic (el nino reduces the number of tropical systems), but it's way more complex than that. You're young, and you still have much to learn about forecasting. Patience is key. Funny thing is, when i was around your age, it was really active in the atlantic (2004 and 2005). Let's say i would wake up at 6:30 every morning just to watch the pre-nbc weather channel.
Quoting BayFog:

A few obvious things were overlooked, probably in deference to computer models, which have in fact been remarkably more accurate in recent years, so understandable. But these models seem to have some blindspots when it comes to extratropical maritime systems which are inherently more complex than continental ones, and of course, there are fewer "ground" truth reporting stations, making inputs dicey.
All true, but there was some "sky truth", for lack of a better term, as this developed. A significant dry slot was observable on the WV loops Friday morning that was eroding rainfall as it came in. The low was much further north than forecast and wasn't coming south. Both the wind gusts and rainfall as the day progressed were less than the high end forecasts. I sense that there was a tendency to favor model data over ground truth for far too long with this system.
Quoting 76. Skyepony:

02W



Looking very good on the organization.
BayFog~ Told y'all in Central CA you should get some rain but it's mostly going north of you. Any description of epic for your area seems way over done for this event. Atleast you aren't in Southern CA, they probably will get little to none from all this. I get the frustration, mets honing in on what ever model promising the most. Drought is the worst...

More should come tomorrow & the next day.. There is another low out there coming.








NASA's model is showing a good bit more snow for the NE the next few days too..
Quoting 75. hurricanes2018:

Crews and property owners already struggling with up to several feet of snow on the ground and on some roofs will need to prepare and make room for additional snow.
Up to a few inches of snow can reach as far south as northern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley of New York and southern Connecticut.



How are you not tired of all that snow? I think east haven has had plenty of snow already.


watching the snow
Quoting 84. TimTheWxMan:




How are you not tired of all that snow? I think east haven has had plenty of snow already.
i have 24 inches of snow on the ground in east haven
Quoting 73. BayFog:

What exactly do you mean by "no atmospheric river in sight?" Are you claiming that the rainfall event in the NW CONUS was not an atmospheric river event?

Yep, that's what I'm saying.

And even if one were to allow that this rather ordinary wintertime front was such a deep layer tropical plume, it was far from being "the Big One" that was being implied initially. We had far more rain, for example, from the December event.

That day will come, but it hasn't yet.

...?



The areas that were forecast to get a lot of rain got a lot of rain.
Quoting 56. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You could say that, but then again that would be a gross generalization of 316 million people.


If you have to take a sampling of the American people, look at Congress...

I think I made it worse. Woops.
Quoting 79. Tropicsweatherpr:

TS HIGOS looking very good.



Higos is indeed looking very good! The center is very quickly lining up with the deepest convection now as of the latest microwave pass. I really doubted the GFS solutions this morning that took a strong system well east of the Marianas, but with Higos now almost to 12*N, that would put the system north of even the recent 12Z GFS. Whether Higos turns more westwards in the next 24 hours or so like a good plurality of guidance suggests remains to be seen, but this would be a nice coup for the GFS if it verifies.





Quoting Seattleite:
Just a few updates from Seattle...

Special Weather Statement about Landslides is still in effect. The USGS is still producing their landslide probabilities statements, and we are still above the AWI threshold.

Passenger trains are not running between Everett and Seattle, and between Kelso WA and Portland, OR due to landslides. (They still let non passenger trains through. There are some pretty interesting you tube videos of landslides taking out trains in WA)

We've received nearly 60% of our monthly average rain in the last 72 hours with 2.56 inches. Thankfully we'll get a brief break before the stronger system on Sunday rolls through.

The winds are starting to pick up a bit, with a recent gust to 32 about 20 minutes ago. Nothing too crazy though, we don't even have a wind advisory or anything.



They have been "working" on that landslide issue on the Everett-Seattle corridor since about 1920 so I don't think it's going to be fixed soon. As soon as there's a landslide, no matter how minor, the BNSF embargoes the line for passenger service for 48 hours. Strangely enough, freight trains still get through after an hour's delay to clear the tracks while the BNSF has 48 hours of not having to worry about those pesky passenger trains. This happens multiple times every winter and it's destroying the public's confidence about riding Amtrak or the Sounder if there's even a shower forecast. The BNSF would like nothing better than passenger traffic to stop altogether. They're working on it.
Here's something that might make the Pacific weather picture more interesting in the upcoming week:

Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
Issued: Feb 07, 2015 10:06 AM HST

"...Forecast confidence remains quite low for Friday into next weekend, as the 12Z models continue to differ in their handling of potential interaction between the persistently strong north Pacific jet in the mid latitudes and newly designated tropical storm Higos in the west Pacific. The GFS entrains a couple of pieces of energy from this tropical cyclone into the westerlies and eventually brings those eastward as surface lows between Hawaii and 30°N, while the ec maintains a more dominant mid latitude jet stream with surface lows staying further north. Large timing/strength differences with the next front result. For now, as per the most recent pmdhi discussion from wpc, have continued to favor the ec solution..."

So maybe Hawaii will get the remnants of Higos, or they'll end up in the westerlies headed for the West Coast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...?



The areas that were forecast to get a lot of rain got a lot of rain.
From Arcata south, they didn't get a lot of rain, and certainly less than what was forecast. Both Arcata and Santa Rosa got about three inches. That's not unusual for any healthy winter storm in Santa Rosa and much below what you'd normally expect in Eureka. The Eel River, which floods severely in a big winter storm, is at barely above flood stage. Flood stage, in this case, is where some cow grazing areas get water over them. The Russian is also a fast flooding river and is far below flood stage. This was not the type of storm that would normally have "millions watching".
Quoting 73. BayFog:

What exactly do you mean by "no atmospheric river in sight?" Are you claiming that the rainfall event in the NW CONUS was not an atmospheric river event?

Yep, that's what I'm saying.

You may want to brush up on the definition of atmospheric river.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/questions/
Quoting 90. sar2401:

They have been "working" on that landslide issue on the Everett-Seattle corridor since about 1920 so I don't think it's going to be fixed soon. As soon as there's a landslide, no matter how minor, the BNSF embargoes the line for passenger service for 48 hours. Strangely enough, freight trains still get through after an hour's delay to clear the tracks while the BNSF has 48 hours of not having to worry about those pesky passenger trains. This happens multiple times every winter and it's destroying the public's confidence about riding Amtrak or the Sounder if there's even a shower forecast. The BNSF would like nothing better than passenger traffic to stop altogether. They're working on it.


That's all quite true! Every winter they shut down the Sounder commuter train. Given the fact that our traffic situation is terrible, and there isn't any more land to simply expand due to Seattle being on an isthmus, you'd think they finally relocate the tracks away from steep coastal bluffs to increase passenger traffic. However, as you described the BSNF has no interest in this. I know many people who commute using the Sounder train, and they continually state how convenient it is from May - October, and how much it's a game of chance the rest of the year. Eventually, there will be light rail trains from Seattle to Everett specifically for passengers, but goodness knows that at least a decade away.


last update was 1 to 2 inches of snow!! now 4 to 6 inches!! in east haven something happern here
Quoting capeflorida:
"A British photographer made the lightning decision to quit the UK to chase storms Down Under and was rewarded with these striking shots. Oliver Kay, 40, left his dead-end IT job in Manchester almost a decade ago with wife Helen in search of a new life in Perth, Western Australia." Link

"Multiple lightning strikes over a 5 minute period with each exposure set at 30 seconds captured from a recent electrical storm in Perth."

He has some nice camera and image processing equipment.
Quoting 77. sar2401:
Yes, Scott, I know where to find things like percentile precipitation forecasts. I've been following weather online since you were in grade school.

Pardon me. Sometimes I forget that you've seen everything, been everywhere, worked in every job imaginable, and are not afraid to remind us of that fact.
Quoting 97. ScottLincoln:


Pardon me. Sometimes I forget that you've seen everything, been everywhere, worked in every job imaginable, and are not afraid to remind us of that fact.

I'm just now getting around to adding your roads shapefiles to my Gr2Analyst:



Just wondering, what's the difference between the OpenStreetMap style file and the City boundaries style file?


02/04 15Z through 02/07 14Z at time of post.
Quoting 98. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm just now getting around to adding your roads shapefiles to my Gr2Analyst:



Just wondering, what's the difference between the OpenStreetMap style file and the City boundaries style file?

The city boundaries style file is what allows you to display the city boundaries shapefile in GR2/3.
The OSM style file is what allows you to display any of the single-radar road shapefiles in GR2/3.


here come the snow maybe here by 3am in new haven


the next snow storm

Some is getting down here. But not East of this map, yet..
104. wxmod
Here's one from Science Recorder:

"Myserious volcanic ash covering Washington, Oregon"

http://www.sciencerecorder.com/news/myserious-vol canic-ash-covering-washington-oregon/

In the article they quote government officials saying the ash is from this or that volcano. But nobody has done any tests on the ash. It could be from China or geoengineering or a monster gravel mine. Scientists make assumptions based on what is easiest for them to understand. I think the scientists need to do some work before spouting off, don't you?

Kinda stuck over here on the Ventura, L.A. county border...
Quoting 104. wxmod:

Here's one from Science Recorder:

"Myserious volcanic ash covering Washington, Oregon"

http://www.sciencerecorder.com/news/myserious-vol canic-ash-covering-washington-oregon/

In the article they quote government officials saying the ash is from this or that volcano. But nobody has done any tests on the ash. It could be from China or geoengineering or a monster gravel mine. Scientists make assumptions based on what is easiest for them to understand. I think the scientists need to do some work before spouting off, don't you?

The article is cut off; I refreshed the page but it appears it is a partial article. Went to google and searched for this story, I found it on CNN...almost entirely verbatim, with no credit given to CNN. The CNN article has links and a video, which did not transfer when pasted onto the site you linked.

No where do I see a scientist 'spouting off'. From the CNN article, and the linked statement, it seems that those who made statements were being rather circumspect, as there is not certainty as to the ash's origin.

From what I can ascertain, this occurred within the past day. Would it have been preferable to hold off on any official statements due to them not knowing where it came from? I don't think that's a viable way to go.
What a wonderful winters day to get out.Didn't need the heavy coat either! I took the kids to see SB and took some pics of the sunset.Looks like the Euro is painting another failure of a storm for the Mid-atlantic next week.lolol it'll just go north of us like it has all winter.Move along nothing to see here..Next weekend is our ski trip.WOOT!.
108. vis0

Quoting 5. vis0:

Thank You Mr. Henson & all that theorized (long ago) how mankind was damaging its home  for the new blog, concerning humanity.
CREDIT:: NOAA, Washington State
SUBJECT:: Will the real Atmospheric waterway please squeeze out (add To Tell the Truth - into tune here) BTW don't ask for this guest to sign in might look indecent, like Benny Hill watering his plants.

http://youtu.be/8fWo7sT7iTQ



Quoting 38. MahFL:

Lots of moisture heading to N CA.


Just north?. lets wait & see. Just in case it does come in to CA, since i might forget a thanks to the blogger that in the last few days has been mentioning an Arctic or colder LOW  doing its thing as it interacts with the Jet/front axis.  Though i mentioned this period (mid Feb2015, "2wkAnom")  last Dec 2014 as a point for max moisture towards Ca.  its not believable till someone as that blogger on their own obs sees such a wxGenesis as stated 3-4 days ago,  that a physical trend is showing what was presented 30+ days ago. BTW credit for the long term predictions?, go to mother nature i'm just a uneducated messenger whose old soul has some inner "gknowledge".
Quoting 104. wxmod:

Here's one from Science Recorder:

"Myserious volcanic ash covering Washington, Oregon"

http://www.sciencerecorder.com/news/myserious-vol canic-ash-covering-washington-oregon/

In the article they quote government officials saying the ash is from this or that volcano. But nobody has done any tests on the ash. It could be from China or geoengineering or a monster gravel mine. Scientists make assumptions based on what is easiest for them to understand. I think the scientists need to do some work before spouting off, don't you?


What ??? read the article again .. nothing says any scientist said anything but that they doubted it was from the Russian volcano .. this is an example of completely changing what an article says ..
Evening all.... I love the glass bottom boat reference in that clip .... lol .... with that rate of water rise, only a small part of Cat Island would be left above water here .....

It's supposed to stay in the 60s over night here... making this the coldest stretch so far this winter. It's pretty cool to actually wear some of the sweaters I've had sitting around here ....
Quoting 107. washingtonian115:

What a wonderful winters day to get out.Didn't need the heavy coat either! I took the kids to see SB and took some pics of the sunset.Looks like the Euro is painting another failure of a storm for the Mid-atlantic next week.lolol it'll just go north of us like it has all winter.Move along nothing to see here..Next weekend is our ski trip.WOOT!.

Where are you going skiing?
if acidification stops the crustations from making new coral..what then over time..happens to the coral reefs? many many sea creatures depend on them as well as other things these reefs do.??
Quoting 111. LAbonbon:


Where are you going skiing?
Seven Springs.
Watching "Storm Stories" on CH-13 on TV here and it is about Katrina. Yikes...
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:

Seven Springs.
Had to google it...looks nice. And not too far from D.C., either. I thought perhaps you were doing a long haul up to northern New England...'cause that would be one looong drive.
Quoting 115. LAbonbon:

Had to google it...looks nice. And not too far from D.C., either. I thought perhaps you were doing a long haul up to northern New England...'cause that would be one looong drive.
We have been going to seven springs since I was little so its kinda like a family tradition.
117. wxmod
Quoting 109. whitewabit:



What ??? read the article again .. nothing says any scientist said anything but that they doubted it was from the Russian volcano .. this is an example of completely changing what an article says ..


Um, le-me-see-white wabbit. The title of the article is: Mysterious volcanic ash covering Washington, Oregon.
There is absolutely NO proof that the ash covering Oregon and Washington was from a volcano.
And the magazine is called SCIENCE RECORDER. I assume that the magazine is about SCIENCE and not hocus-pocus.
All the other coverage of this event is just as tainted. I think it is essential for tests to be done on the substance, as it may be a toxic substance or radioactive.
118. vis0

Quoting 51. ScottLincoln:


1) What exactly do you mean by "no atmospheric river in sight?" Are you claiming that the rainfall event in the NW CONUS was not an atmospheric river event?

2) The 7-day rainfall forecast from Jan 31, ending at 1200 UTC Feb 7th.


3) The 7-day rainfall accumulation ending at 1200 UTC Feb 7th.
http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?yday=14 23267200&yday_analysis=0&layer%5B%5D=0& ;layer%5B%5D =1&layer%5B%5D=4&timetype=RECENT&locty pe=NWS&units =engl&timeframe=last7days&product=observed &loc=reg ionWR

One of the better 7 day forecasts I've seen, honestly. In many areas, the rainfall forecast was underdone. For areas near San Francisco, it was very close. The general shape and location of rainfall maxima are very similar.

       &nbs p; To be fair/unfair to both sides the 7day forecast that ENDED Sun
Feb, 8th 2015 (Not found, my image capture app only copied the image-place-mat
not img, blank/WHITE SPACE IN IMG below) has a similar map BUT that "yellow
bulls-eye" (10+ inches) was ~150mi further to the south/SSE and a bit wider. 

Missing middle img my fault not your comp'r
Now the weird thing is the prediction you see here till Feb 12 2015 has a
good chance of being on the dot or under estimated NOT due to a AtmosRIVER, but
to that cooler LOW+friend that will come in 9th through 11th ish. Its like when
Colo State sez 12 hurricanes but doesn't state from where or time period form
just 12 from June to Nov. the final result makes prediction lok god though for
the incorrect reasons.
What was off was the Feb 2nd or 3rd 7-day prediction as more was expected
from the AtmosRiver when in reality.  It became what SAR2401 called (not a
quote) a good but average winter LOW(s) but not an atmospheric river. Why i
called it a day before Dr. Masters AtmosRiver blog an atmospheric stream. In the
end they'll be more moisture than predicted even though not for the reasons
stated i pro-predictiions a week ago, but the operative word is more moisture
for CA. and if that cooler LOW goes more eastward its favorable that even the
snow pack gets a mini boost.
Why?
Again don't want to get SAR2401 dizzy, so read this quietly... its
galacsics.now why did i repeat the 1st img, when Scott already has it on his comment, geesh i need some sleep been awake ~32 hrs straight.,, i know!, will sleep from noon till 5pm tomorrow no NatL Fibbers League game tomorrow.
Quoting 117. wxmod:



Um, le-me-see-white wabbit. The title of the article is: Mysterious volcanic ash covering Washington, Oregon.
There is absolutely NO proof that the ash covering Oregon and Washington was from a volcano.
And the magazine is called SCIENCE RECORDER. I assume that the magazine is about SCIENCE and not hocus-pocus.
All the other coverage of this event is just as tainted. I think it is essential for tests to be done on the substance, as it may be a toxic substance or radioactive.


your statement -"I think the scientists need to do some work before spouting off, don't you?..

The Scientist weren't spouting off .. their statement was per the article " That is the main reason local scientists are dubious that the white rain is in fact volcanic residue from the Russian volcano."

the statement about volcanic ash was - "%u201CThe strong southerly flow from the jet stream could have brought it from an active volcano in southwest Colima, Mexico. But if we go farther west towards eastern Russia, there%u2019s another active volcano there,%u201D says CNN Meteorologist Derek Van Dam. The Mexican volcano is near Guadalajara and erupted Wednesday.

Edit .. 106. LAbonbon may have said it better..
Quoting 104. wxmod:

Here's one from Science Recorder:

"Myserious volcanic ash covering Washington, Oregon"

http://www.sciencerecorder.com/news/myserious-vol canic-ash-covering-washington-oregon/

In the article they quote government officials saying the ash is from this or that volcano. But nobody has done any tests on the ash. It could be from China or geoengineering or a monster gravel mine. Scientists make assumptions based on what is easiest for them to understand. I think the scientists need to do some work before spouting off, don't you?


I hope it's exhaust particulates from flying pigs. It could be anything, you know.
Quoting PedleyCA:

Some is getting down here. But not East of this map, yet..
Notice Nordhoff Ridge at the right of center of that map you posted. That station is situated above Ojai, where I lived during the January, 2005, Pineapple Express. Here are rainfall totals for that area:



Now *that* was a true atmospheric river rainfall event.

From that page:

"While little of southern California was spared from the heavy rains, the areas hardest hit stretched from near Point Conception west of Santa Barbara to the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains north and east of Los Angeles, where storm totals through the duration of the event exceeded 30 inches in the wettest locations. As if this were not enough, a prior storm period that began a few days after Christmas and continued into the first week of January saw an additional 10 to 20+ inches of precipitation in this same area. For example, the precipitation gage at Old Man Mountain in the Ventura River drainage recorded 24.05 inches between December 26th and January 5th."

It was a mess.
Quoting 120. Naga5000:



I hope it's exhaust particulates from flying pigs. It could be anything, you know.


it does need to be tested but most likely it is just dust .. there are radiation monitors all along all the coast lines of the US so would say its not radioactive ..
Quoting 122. whitewabit:



it does need to be tested but most likely it is just dust .. there are radiation monitors all along all the coast lines of the US so would say its not radioactive ..


Quit being reasonable while I am trying to blow this story out of proportion. Where is your sense of sensationalism? :)
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Pardon me. Sometimes I forget that you've seen everything, been everywhere, worked in every job imaginable, and are not afraid to remind us of that fact.
A little frustrated are you tonight? Make it to 69 and then get back to me.
Quoting 112. LargoFl:

if acidification stops the crustations from making new coral..what then over time..happens to the coral reefs? many many sea creatures depend on them as well as other things these reefs do.??


the coral reefs start to dissolve in the acidic water over time .. coral is a living organism and after it dies it becomes brittle and literally falls apart giving other living things that use it for shelter no where to live and they in turn parish ..

A very sad chain of events that multiply in the death from the small to the large nothing in the ocean of life is spared ..


i bet you the peolpe see this map are going to get mad here lets hope this is not all snow!! we going to have more snow over 12 inches!
Quoting Naga5000:


Quit being reasonable while I am trying to blow this story out of proportion. Where is your sense of sensationalism? :)
If you would simply get your tinfoil hat adjusted properly you could see how serious this is. Anything we can't immediately explain is, by definition, toxic. Any "scientist" who says it's not is, by definition, tainted. People are dropping like flies up there and the MSM, bought and paid for by the PTB, is just not covering this. Thankfully, InfoWars is right on top of it and already selling decontamination kits. I'm headed over there now and get one before the NWO sends the CIA to take me to a FEMA camp run by the UN.



look at boston!!
Does anyone on this blog know that carbon dioxide is not visible from the smoke stack so that showing
all the POLLUTION is not carbon dioxide? Unreal that so many people CONFUSE carbon dioxide
from Sulfur and Nitrogen pollutants that are visible!
Quoting vis0:


       &nb s p; To be fair/unfair to both sides the 7day forecast that ENDED Sun
Feb, 8th 2015 (Not found, my image capture app only copied the image-place-mat
not img, blank/WHITE SPACE IN IMG below) has a similar map BUT that "yellow
bulls-eye" (10+ inches) was ~150mi further to the south/SSE and a bit wider. 

Missing middle img my fault not your comp'r
Now the weird thing is the prediction you see here till Feb 12 2015 has a
good chance of being on the dot or under estimated NOT due to a AtmosRIVER, but
to that cooler LOW+friend that will come in 9th through 11th ish. Its like when
Colo State sez 12 hurricanes but doesn't state from where or time period form
just 12 from June to Nov. the final result makes prediction lok god though for
the incorrect reasons.
What was off was the Feb 2nd or 3rd 7-day prediction as more was expected
from the AtmosRiver when in reality.  It became what SAR2401 called (not a
quote) a good but average winter LOW(s) but not an atmospheric river. Why i
called it a day before Dr. Masters AtmosRiver blog an atmospheric stream. In the
end they'll be more moisture than predicted even though not for the reasons
stated i pro-predictiions a week ago, but the operative word is more moisture
for CA. and if that cooler LOW goes more eastward its favorable that even the
snow pack gets a mini boost.
Why?
Again don't want to get SAR2401 dizzy, so read this quietly... its
galacsics.now why did i repeat the 1st img, when Scott already has it on his comment, geesh i need some sleep been awake ~32 hrs straight.,, i know!, will sleep from noon till 5pm tomorrow no NatL Fibbers League game tomorrow.
Why have you been awake for 32 hours? Nothing on TV can be that good. We're too old to keep hours like that. :-)

You're going to get me in trouble with my betters here. I never claimed there was no atmospheric river. What I claimed was that said river's fire hose didn't get much past the Oregon-California border. South of there, it looked more like a typical winter low than a river. OK, maybe a creek, but not a river. We seem to be in an age when we need shorty, pithy names for weather phenomena so the media keeps up. Atmospheric rivers, Snowmageddon, polar vortexes, winter storms named Gorgon...all waiting to get us. We're going to get blasted, pounded, flattened, folded, and stapled from every single weather event from now on. Now I'm in trouble again. Go to bed.
Quoting 127. sar2401:

If you would simply get your tinfoil hat adjusted properly you could see how serious this is. Anything we can't immediately explain is, by definition, toxic. Any "scientist" who says it's not is, by definition, tainted. People are dropping like flies up there and the MSM, bought and paid for by the PTB, is just not covering this. Thankfully, InfoWars is right on top of it and already selling decontamination kits. I'm headed over there now and get one before the NWO sends the CIA to take me to a FEMA camp run by the UN.


Nice try, the FEMA camp is full. Now I know you're one of them...
Quoting eldostatepark:
Does anyone on this blog know that carbon dioxide is not visible from the smoke stack so that showing
all the POLLUTION is not carbon dioxide? Unreal that so many people CONFUSE carbon dioxide
from Sulfur and Nitrogen pollutants that are visible!
The blog post says "As the public discussion turned to these assorted but related threats in the late 1960s, carbon dioxide remained far in the background...". In other words, we were trying clean up the crud from the smokestacks and weren't too worried about carbon dioxide. The post never claimed that the crud visible from the Clark Street Bridge was carbon dioxide. Try to improve your reading comprehension between now and your next outraged post.
Quoting Naga5000:


Nice try, the FEMA camp is full. Now I know you're one of them...
Drat! Was it my green, scaly skin that tipped you off?
Round Fire
Round Fire
#RoundFire [update] west of Highway 395 at the Sherwin Grade (Inyo County) is now 7,000 acres & 50% contained.
Quoting 134. PedleyCA:

Round Fire
Round Fire
#RoundFire [update] west of Highway 395 at the Sherwin Grade (Inyo County) is now 7,000 acres & 50% contained.


Hadn't heard of this fire in my area .. see that 40 structures were burnt .. will be a high cost fire .. 200 fire fighters ..
Quoting PedleyCA:
Round Fire
Round Fire
#RoundFire [update] west of Highway 395 at the Sherwin Grade (Inyo County) is now 7,000 acres & 50% contained.
I had no idea there were two towns in California named Paradise. This one, in Mono County, has all of 130 people, making it the third largest town in the county. I guess all the wind from the storm and no rain must have blown this fire up.
137. vis0

Quoting 97. ScottLincoln:


Pardon me. Sometimes I forget that you've seen everything, been everywhere, worked in every job imaginable, and are not afraid to remind us of that fact.
...and that's how mankind builds knowledge by sharing ones experiences
otherwise we'd have 8 billion people trying to create their own version of the
wheel.
You've heard of how each generation adds a rung to the ladder of knowledge,
well SAR2401 is just doing his part. At times the rung might be a bit crooked
but someone else will come along and and make adjustments as more people step
onto that rung. SAR2401 rarely sez he's correct, its his life experience he
posts, if anyone here has a different experience over the exact area of the
world he speaks of PLEASE post it so we can get an even more complete knowledge
of that area of the world.
Example:: My Grandfather Perdro Ortiz (Father side) at age 16 dug out from
sand in Puerto Rico these vein like fused fingers of sand after lightning
struck, he saved them in glass jars and showed them to me in 1972 while telling
me that HIS father showed him some from the very early 1800s, but was told by
locals its devils work.(both lived to be in their late 90s).  It wasn't till
years later they where "discovered" to be what now are called Fulgurites .
Pedro dug them out in the 1800s.  In not sharing, humanity lost out on
finding a piece of the scientific puzzle much earlier which could help in
other fields of science.

Sar2401's story of cows getting flooded over might not seem as much but if i
ever vist that area and i see water rising quickly to a cows belly i'm using the
energy i have stored in me from eating that days Mcburger to get the heck out of
there, mooooove along.
Here's my version of the wheel if no over the years hadn't hared their idea
for what became the wheel many generations later (extreme but serves a point
through humor).next i'm going to create the plane, just need a few more hudred Ostrich feathers.
now i want Unky Grother to tell me how he stood up "Eve" 'cause he cause he was too busy that night...
Rough day today here in ..New Smyrna Beach.
I think I may have to play tennis and golf tomorrow just to get over it...
Oh, sorry gates are closed.
Nobody else can come here lol...



COLD!!!!!
Quoting 97. ScottLincoln:


Pardon me. Sometimes I forget that you've seen everything, been everywhere, worked in every job imaginable, and are not afraid to remind us of that fact.


Indeed, he's a regla Brian Williams.


: )



watching this snow move into conn by morning!
142. vis0

Quoting 66. JrWeathermanFL:



I don't think you can't do that to my knowledge. The community is a bunch of random people who play the game. Im assuming they put eye.
are  you sure it was a Hurricane not HurryCane® 'cause in that case its the tubular lightweight yet STRONG contruction
Quoting 127. sar2401:

If you would simply get your tinfoil hat adjusted properly you could see how serious this is. Anything we can't immediately explain is, by definition, toxic. Any "scientist" who says it's not is, by definition, tainted. People are dropping like flies up there and the MSM, bought and paid for by the PTB, is just not covering this. Thankfully, InfoWars is right on top of it and already selling decontamination kits. I'm headed over there now and get one before the NWO sends the CIA to take me to a FEMA camp run by the UN.

NWO?
Quoting 143. LAbonbon:


NWO?


New World Order....
Quoting 144. PedleyCA:



New World Order....

riiiiight....should have gotten that one
outside the bubble:

Link
Storm total at my house in Truckee: 1.91 inches of water (rain, snow, more rain). Should pick up a bit more Sunday/Monday. This was a very windy storm, with lots of trees down around town. A friend saw a pine tree smack the car in front of him. Another friend had a big fir tree topple over in their yard, narrowly missing the doghouse with dog inside. A windy fire at a substation knocked out power to most businesses and a good portion of homes for several hours.
VIIRS pass of Higos
Quoting oldnewmex:
Storm total at my house in Truckee: 1.91 inches of water (rain, snow, more rain). Should pick up a bit more Sunday/Monday. This was a very windy storm, with lots of trees down around town. A friend saw a pine tree smack the car in front of him. Another friend had a big fir tree topple over in their yard, narrowly missing the doghouse with dog inside. A windy fire at a substation knocked out power to most businesses and a good portion of homes for several hours.
Seems as if the downslope winds over in the Carson Valley got pretty bad also with multiple reports of trees down there as well. One "trained spotter" supposedly measured a gust of 90 mph 5 miles WSW of "gardnervillesprings verville, Douglas County" (the storm reports out of Reno are complete gibberish today) but there were many RAWS and AWOS sites with 70-80 mph gusts. There was also a report of 2.26" of rain "2 miles SSW of gardnervilleson city, Douglas County" by another trained spotter which seems quite unbelievable to me since I can't find any other sites with more than 0.25". It does look like the snow level gets down to about 6000 feet Sunday night and Monday so you might get some snow but the models are now starting to back off on the precipitation amounts with this next storm, so I wouldn't expect near what you had from the River.
150. beell
Decent chance for a tornado or two tomorrow afternoon along the Sacramento Valley between Sacramento and Redding, Ca. I like the chances closer to the northern end of the valley. Perhaps the orientation of the valley itself (SSE to NNW) will aid in the development of backed low-level winds

Meager instability AOA 500 J/kg paired with respectable lapse rates near 7°C/km thanks to colder air aloft.
along with large values of helicity and 60-70 knots of shear should be good enough for an upgrade.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2015

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL CA...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE TORNADOES...ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF CONVECTIVE INTEREST WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY PRODUCING PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX SHOULD IMPINGE ON THE
NRN CA/ORE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON SUN. ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE ORE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...NRN/CNTRL CA...
HAVE EXPANDED MARGINAL-RISK PROBABILITIES FARTHER W ACROSS THE
REGION AND CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE THIS OUTLOOK FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL
VALLEY
. ALTHOUGH TOTAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR AOA 15
PERCENT...INDIVIDUAL HAZARD PROBABILITIES AOA 5 PERCENT FOR
TORNADOES APPEAR PLAUSIBLE.

MID-LEVEL DCVA WITH THE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL YIELD
STRONGLY-FORCED ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE COAST AND CNTRL VALLEY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH NRN
EXTENT...HINDERING SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DESPITE COOLING
ALOFT/STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH WRF/NMMB-BASED
GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FARTHER S IN THE VALLEY...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY DEVELOP. STRENGTHENING LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL YIELD HODOGRAPHS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES VEERED FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OVERALL SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAKLY ROTATING
SHOWERS/STORMS. A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...WITH
A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 02/07/2015





Quoting 147. oldnewmex:

Storm total at my house in Truckee: 1.91 inches of water (rain, snow, more rain). Should pick up a bit more Sunday/Monday. This was a very windy storm, with lots of trees down around town. A friend saw a pine tree smack the car in front of him. Another friend had a big fir tree topple over in their yard, narrowly missing the doghouse with dog inside. A windy fire at a substation knocked out power to most businesses and a good portion of homes for several hours.

Thanks for the update. Coming to your neighborhood on Thursday.
Quoting 134. PedleyCA:

Round Fire
Round Fire
#RoundFire [update] west of Highway 395 at the Sherwin Grade (Inyo County) is now 7,000 acres & 50% contained.

It was really windy yesterday morning, even before the rain arrived. I had just hooked up the anemometer for my new weather station a couple hours earlier, and was marvelling at the fat numbers on the display as the winds picked up. The storm high wind of 41 mph occured while I was out in the yard installing a snow melter for the rain gage - made it a bit of a challenge to get things done without losing parts. My house is located in a forested area; locations out in the open recorded much higher wind speeds.
Quoting 151. RedwoodCoast:


Thanks for the update. Coming to your neighborhood on Thursday.

Thursday should be fine.
Truckee, CA forecast
Oh man. This is relentless.

A wonderful place for controversy and predictions is "The Club of Rome". Link. No it's not a resort, but an international think tank that does predictions on the course of humanity and their relationship/interactions with the earth. They published a ground breaking book back in 1972 called "The Limits of Growth". Even at that early date, this organization recognized the dangers to the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. A number of their predictions have panned out.
156. vis0

Quoting 130. sar2401:

Why have you been awake for 32 hours? Nothing on TV can be that good. We're too old to keep hours like that. :-)

You're going to get me in trouble with my betters here. I never claimed there was no atmospheric river. What I claimed was that said river's fire hose didn't get much past the Oregon-California border. South of there, it looked more like a typical winter low than a river. OK, maybe a creek, but not a river. We seem to be in an age when we need shorty, pithy names for weather phenomena so the media keeps up. Atmospheric rivers, Snowmageddon, polar vortexes, winter storms named Gorgon...all waiting to get us. We're going to get blasted, pounded, flattened, folded, and stapled from every single weather event from now on. Now I'm in trouble again. Go to bed.
you are exactly correct on your AR statement.  why i posted not a quote, as to why awake, from 2 surprise visits by family going on ski trips somewhere up north (NE/CAN.) i had to make food for them its a Spanish custom to over feed relatives.  As to getting some sleep zzzzzzzzzzz  (darn forgot to turn off the light, and my tin foil hat, only will awaken if by a quake) zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Quoting 157. TropicalAnalystwx13:

#mercy


Quoting 157. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I can only imagine how cold it will be in Saranac Lake. With a map like this, -40F to -45F is a reasonable guess.
159. beell
Quoting 157. TropicalAnalystwx13:

#mercy




uh...no, but thanks for playing GFS.

Quoting 159. beell:



uh...no.

It's becoming obvious at this point that the GFS has a big cold bias in the medium to long range. The preexisting snow depth is probably playing a big role in that. Still...there's good agreement from the GFS ensembles and the ECMWF that record cold will be possible across the Northeast next weekend.

Still snowless here....
161. beell
Quoting 160. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's becoming obvious at this point that the GFS has a big cold bias in the medium to long range. The preexisting snow depth is probably playing a big role in that. Still...there's good agreement from the GFS ensembles and the ECMWF that record cold will be possible across the Northeast next weekend.

Still snowless here....


A temp 48°F below climo is not a bias- it's, it's, it's...yeah, whatever. Record cold is certainly a possibility.

Snowless here. Mosquitoes are waking up.
162. Siker
Quoting beell:


A temp 48°F below climo is not a bias- it's, it's, it's...yeah, whatever. Record cold is certainly a possibility.

Snowless here. Mosquitoes are waking up.


I want to know where it's showing the temp 70 degrees below average, LOL.
163. vis0
zzzzzcredit::zzzzzzJMA (WV)
zzzzzSUBJECT::TD in cPAC
zzzzzzzzTDzzzzzzzzzzHeadszzzzzzzzzwestzzzzzzzzzzz zORzzzzzz
zzzzzEASTzzzwowzzzzzzzzzzmadezzzzzzzthezzzzzzzzle astzzzz
zzzgramaticalzzzzzerrorszzzzzzzzalseepzzzzzzzzzzz z

zzzhttp://youtu.be/I0nt5B1C910
zzzzzz

Quoting 150. beell:

Decent chance for a tornado or two tomorrow afternoon along the Sacramento Valley between Sacramento and Redding, Ca. I like the chances closer to the northern end of the valley. Perhaps the orientation of the valley itself (SSE to NNW) will aid in the development of backed low-level winds

Meager instability AOA 500 J/kg paired with respectable lapse rates near 7°C/km thanks to colder air aloft.
along with large values of helicity and 60-70 knots of shear should be good enough for an upgrade.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2015

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL CA...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE TORNADOES...ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF CONVECTIVE INTEREST WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY PRODUCING PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX SHOULD IMPINGE ON THE
NRN CA/ORE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON SUN. ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE ORE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...NRN/CNTRL CA...
HAVE EXPANDED MARGINAL-RISK PROBABILITIES FARTHER W ACROSS THE
REGION AND CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE THIS OUTLOOK FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL
VALLEY
. ALTHOUGH TOTAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR AOA 15
PERCENT...INDIVIDUAL HAZARD PROBABILITIES AOA 5 PERCENT FOR
TORNADOES APPEAR PLAUSIBLE.

MID-LEVEL DCVA WITH THE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL YIELD
STRONGLY-FORCED ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE COAST AND CNTRL VALLEY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH NRN
EXTENT...HINDERING SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DESPITE COOLING
ALOFT/STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH WRF/NMMB-BASED
GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FARTHER S IN THE VALLEY...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY DEVELOP. STRENGTHENING LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL YIELD HODOGRAPHS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES VEERED FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OVERALL SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAKLY ROTATING
SHOWERS/STORMS. A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...WITH
A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 02/07/2015







Yep, I saw the same mention in the SF Discussion, which said the chance also exists in the Bay Area, which is not entirely surprising given the dynamism of the system offshore evident in the satellite, the inclusion of some cold air, and the ambient moisture both from the recent rain and the higher than normal coastal SSTs, not to mention an associated jet streak/max.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM HIGOS (1502)
15:00 PM JST February 8 2015
================================
Near Marshall Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Higos (990 hPa) located at 12.3N 157.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds
==============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 13.2N 156.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marshall Islands
48 HRS: 14.8N 154.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Truks (Chuuck) waters
72 HRS: 16.9N 153.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Minami-tori shima waters

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI (09-20142015)
10:00 AM RET February 8 2015
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fundi (991 hPa) located at 27.7S 44.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
Extending up to 90 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the eastern sector

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 31.4S 44.0E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
24 HRS 34.6S 42.4E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 36.0S 38.7E - 25 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 38.9S 42.3E - 20 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
=================
On the last microwave data 0406z, deep convective activity which has strengthened during the night seems to be offset southwards of low level circulation.

Since evolving over cooler sea surface temperature and an increasing shear environment, Fundi should start to loose its tropical characteristics today.

Today,the system should remain on its southward track along the western edge of the subtropical ridge. Fundi should accelerate gradually its motion. The northwesterly to northerly shear is likely to relax slightly during the next 24 hours (due to the speed of the system), and then to increase again.

Monday, the weakness should withdraw and a transient ridge is expected to build south of the system and bend the track temporarily westwards. Tuesday, the ridge will shift rapidly to the west of the system and a new poleward turn is expected. During the middle of next week, Fundi is expected to dissipate within the mid-lat westerlies
nc has been in one dead boring weather pattern this winter and it will not change from the looks of things. imo we are going to break historic records for least snowfall. the mountains have seen little snowfall as well... which is quite unusual.


here we go again 18 to 24 inches of snow we still have 3 feet of snow on the ground and add more snow!!


snow storm on thursday to!!
Used to have the Douglas Fir trees in Maine; you could always count on a few of those coming down in a good storm. Wide but shallow root base. Worse if the ground was already saturated.

Pines usually snap. Most normally have a large taproot, although I've seen some fully uprooted.

Either way the winds must have been hellish. Thanks for sharing.

Quoting 147. oldnewmex:

Storm total at my house in Truckee: 1.91 inches of water (rain, snow, more rain). Should pick up a bit more Sunday/Monday. This was a very windy storm, with lots of trees down around town. A friend saw a pine tree smack the car in front of him. Another friend had a big fir tree topple over in their yard, narrowly missing the doghouse with dog inside. A windy fire at a substation knocked out power to most businesses and a good portion of homes for several hours.
Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
442 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT, MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

NJZ012-015-PAZ060-101>104-106-082100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.150209T1100Z-150210T1100Z/
MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...READING...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE. ..MORRISVILLE...
DOYLESTOWN
442 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW. IT IS IN
EFFECT FROM 600 AM MONDAY UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW ON
MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET ON MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE ICE AND SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN THE
REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ON MONDAY,
FALLING INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY AND USE EXTRA CAUTION IF
DRIVING.

&&

$$

Snow Forecast update!!
This 3-4 day long snow event began late Friday night as an initial strip of light snow swept from northern Minnesota over the northern Great Lakes. Some of this light snow also moved through Upstate New York and New England Saturday into early Sunday morning.

(MORE: Expert Analysis | Winter Storm Central)

However, Sunday afternoon through Monday night is when we expect the greatest amounts of snow and ice from Marcus to fall, mainly affecting the Northeast region. The heaviest snow totals will be aligned along a west-to-east corridor from Upstate New York through New England, including western, central, Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, southern Maine, Massachusetts (except far southeast), northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island

Forecast details:

Many locations will see up to a foot or more of total snowfall. Amounts of up to 2 feet are possible in parts of central and northeast Massachusetts. See our forecast map below for details.
Boston, Albany, N.Y. and Worcester, Mass. are among the cities where a foot or more of snow could pile up.
New York City is in the transition zone for precipitation types. A mixture of freezing rain and snow is expected Sunday night through Monday Night. The ice accumulations will make for slick travel conditions. We expect the wintry mix to change over to all snow late Monday into Monday night with light accumulations possible.
Light ice accumulations are possible as far south as southeast Pennsylvania and northern new Jersey, including just northwest of the Philadelphia metro area.
Gusty winds will impact parts of eastern New England, leading to blowing and drifting snow.
Travel will be greatly impacted Sunday night through Monday night across a large portion of the Northeast, from New England to eastern Pennsylvania and southeast New York. Expect delays on both roads and at airports through the region. I-95, I-84, I-90, I-91 and I-81 are among the interstates in the region that will be impacted.
Past 7 days precipitation estimates
very cold and lots of snow in east haven for the next 7 days!!


Could be another inch of rain tomorrow for C FL.
Quoting 166. robert88:

nc has been in one dead boring weather pattern this winter and it will not change from the looks of things. imo we are going to break historic records for least snowfall. the mountains have seen little snowfall as well... which is quite unusual.


Agreed, SC same story. Been on the cool side with cold overnights (many lows in 20's here). Looks like we have more unseasonal cold arriving Thursday through the weekend. Hopefully spring starts springing after that. Hopefully no late freeze this year as was the case last year. Peach growers took quite a hit.

I don't think Greenville, SC has had any snow this winter. As much as I'd like to see spring, there's always a chance of a late freak snowstorm, although after this next cold snap moves through we will be in the second half of February when our chances for snow really start to diminish.

Mother Nature has her own plan however. She is pretty moody this year so maybe she'll lump us with some historic event.

Going to be 68F-70F here in FLO today. Going to finish prepping the garden to plant my spring crop after this next cold snap moves through. We may barely crack 40F Friday, with overnight lows near 20F.
Sister in Ipswich has had enough. This is rough, especially with deep cold to follow. They have a long way to go until spring as well; especially with that snowpack reinforcing the icebox.

Let's hope for a gradual melt this spring without heavy rains.

Quoting 154. wxgeek723:

Oh man. This is relentless.


Quoting 125. whitewabit:



the coral reefs start to dissolve in the acidic water over time .. coral is a living organism and after it dies it becomes brittle and literally falls apart giving other living things that use it for shelter no where to live and they in turn parish ..

A very sad chain of events that multiply in the death from the small to the large nothing in the ocean of life is spared ..
The oceans have been more acidic then they are now, and the coral reefs were thriving in those oceans. The organisms will adapt to the changing environment and at the rate the oceans are becoming more acidic, it will take many generations for the oceans to become acidic enough to kill all the corals and other organisms that depend on calcification to live and reproduce.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Could be another inch of rain tomorrow for C FL.


NWS isnt buying that much. They are thinking under .20. They pretty much nailed the last rain event.
National Geographic

Ocean Acidifiction


For tens of millions of years, Earth's oceans have maintained a relatively stable acidity level. It's within this steady environment that the rich and varied web of life in today's seas has arisen and flourished. But research shows that this ancient balance is being undone by a recent and rapid drop in surface pH that could have devastating global consequences.

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution in the early 1800s, fossil fuel-powered machines have driven an unprecedented burst of human industry and advancement. The unfortunate consequence, however, has been the emission of billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases into Earth's atmosphere.

Scientists now know that about half of this anthropogenic, or man-made, CO2 has been absorbed over time by the oceans. This has benefited us by slowing the climate change these emissions would have instigated if they had remained in the air. But relatively new research is finding that the introduction of massive amounts of CO2 into the seas is altering water chemistry and affecting the life cycles of many marine organisms, particularly those at the lower end of the food chain.

Carbonic Acid

When carbon dioxide dissolves in this ocean, carbonic acid is formed. This leads to higher acidity, mainly near the surface, which has been proven to inhibit shell growth in marine animals and is suspected as a cause of reproductive disorders in some fish.

On the pH scale, which runs from 0 to 14, solutions with low numbers are considered acidic and those with higher numbers are basic. Seven is neutral. Over the past 300 million years, ocean pH has been slightly basic, averaging about 8.2. Today, it is around 8.1, a drop of 0.1 pH units, representing a 25-percent increase in acidity over the past two centuries.

Carbon Storehouse

The oceans currently absorb about a third of human-created CO2 emissions, roughly 22 million tons a day. Projections based on these numbers show that by the end of this century, continued emissions could reduce ocean pH by another 0.5 units. Shell-forming animals including corals, oysters, shrimp, lobster, many planktonic organisms, and even some fish species could be gravely affected.

Equally worrisome is the fact that as the oceans continue to absorb more CO2, their capacity as a carbon storehouse could diminish. That means more of the carbon dioxide we emit will remain in the atmosphere, further aggravating global climate change.

Scientific awareness of ocean acidification is relatively recent, and researchers are just beginning to study its effects on marine ecosystems. But all signs indicate that unless humans are able to control and eventually eliminate our fossil fuel emissions, ocean organisms will find themselves under increasing pressure to adapt to their habitat's changing chemistry or perish.

Quoting 250. Xandra:

First Country in the World Dumps Fossil Fuels As Divestment Movement Heats Up


“Norway made all its money on oil, but now it’s dumping its fossil fuel stocks. It’s the Rockefeller of countries,” said Bill McKibben. Photo credit: Fossil Free
Looks like this will be the first time in recorded history Charlotte doesn't receive any snow for an entire winter. I was a little upset until I realized the forecast for today is upper 60s and sunny :)
With respect to today's blog "Carbon Dioxide, Congress, and the President -- 50 Years Ago" one would like to comment that Climate Change has long been recognised as both occurring and as presenting a substantial threat to the continuation of the current biospheric conditions which are so favourable for our human society.

During his presidential campaign even Geo HW Bush recognized and was willing to admit this: "Those who think we're powerless to do anything about the greenhouse effect, are forgetting about the White House effect." he famously declared in 1988.

Sadly, if predictably, as president he was soon toeing the line as a tool of the extractive energy industries. By the end of his term, Climate Change Denial had become a shibboleth of American conservative political orthodoxy.

How this came about is well presented in Naomi Oreskes's Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming and synoptically presented as a powerful cautionary tale in her The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future.

Climate Change: It ain't rocket science, but it is science.

Quoting NativeSun:
The oceans have been more acidic then they are now, and the coral reefs were thriving in those oceans. The organisms will adapt to the changing environment and at the rate the oceans are becoming more acidic, it will take many generations for the oceans to become acidic enough to kill all the corals and other organisms that depend on calcification to live and reproduce.
That's a nice opinion. Unfortunately for the many hundreds of millions of people who depend on the ocean for food, that opinion isn't based in anything close to scientific reality. The ocean's are absorbing as much of the four million tons of CO2 we pump into the ocean every hour of every day as they can, and that means acidification is rising far too rapidly for any living organism to evolve.

However, I will concede that many species will most certainly adapt--but keep in mind that extinction is itself a form of adaptation.
187. beell

(click image for all 13Z Day 1 graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2015

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MOSTLY OVER NRN CENTRAL VALLEY
OF CA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE OVER MUCH OF NRN AND
CENTRAL CA...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST THROUGH PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING BOTH WEAK MEAN RIDGING OVER WRN STATES AND WEAK MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN CONUS. LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM IA TO CENTRAL/ERN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND UPPER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. NEXT PERTURBATION -- NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN MEAN RIDGE OVER NRN ROCKIES -- IS FCST TO TURN SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...REACHING PORTIONS NEB/KS/OK BY 00Z AND MID SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z. PRECEDING PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MEAGER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEPTH FOR A LTG STRIKE OR TWO DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD...OVER TN VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR GENERAL-TSTM LINE ATTM.

STG PAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG 130W...BETWEEN 30N-40N. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ENEWD...CROSSING NRN CA AND ORE COAST BETWEEN 06-12Z. SFC COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY AS OF 12Z WITH FINE LINE AND OCNL DEEPER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ROUGHLY FROM 36N128W-32N128W-28N131W- 24N137W. FRONTAL BAND WILL PRECEDE MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING ASHORE AND INLAND NRN CA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND LOW-LEVEL FRONT LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EVENING.

...NRN-CENTRAL CA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CHARACTERIZE PASSAGE OF MAIN PRECIP BAND ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT TODAY. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS...MRGL-SVR HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM MOST SUSTAINED/INTENSE CELLS...WHETHER IN BAROCLINIC BAND OR IN ZONE OF COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT BEHIND IT.

OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED BACKING OF SFC WINDS BENEATH STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL YIELD STG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTN...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDENT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE IN 21-02Z TIME FRAME...SHIFTING W-E ACROSS NRN PARTS OF CENTRAL VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR SUCH DESTABILIZATION LOOKS SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN IN PREVIOUS FCST CYCLES GIVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL TIMING. FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCALE...PATCHY CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW WEAK SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION JUXTAPOSED WITH ONSET OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT...WHILE HODOGRAPHS STILL ARE FAVORABLY LARGE. THEN VEERING POSTFRONTAL SFC WINDS WILL SHRINK HODOGRAPHS AND REDUCE STORM-RELATIVE NEAR-SFC FLOW...WHILE LOSS OF SUNSHINE STARTS TO STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER. MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE WITH JUST 2-3 DEG F SFC HEATING BEHIND INITIAL PRECIP PLUME...KEEPING LCL LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS MAINLY MID-UPPER 50S F. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AMIDST 250-350 J/KG 0-1-KM SRH...BASED ON FCST RANGE OF ENEWD-NEWD CELL MOTIONS.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 02/08/2015
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Looks like this will be the first time in recorded history Charlotte doesn't receive any snow for an entire winter. I was a little upset until I realized the forecast for today is upper 60s and sunny :)


Pretty early to make that call. It is only Feb 8th.
Quoting 181. Patrap:


Get yer ticket in yer hand...



I'll see yor Professor Longhair and raise one Mac Rebennack
Was 42 last night and the dog had 12 puppies in the middle of the yard.

Oh jeez
Quoting 188. luvtogolf:



Pretty early to make that call. It is only Feb 8th.


Our 2 biggest snowfall months have already passed. Its going to be near 70 degrees today. Not looking cold enough for snow the next 7-10 days, not to mention little to zero precip being forecasted. More likely to see 70s than snow after mid-February in Charlotte. Anything is possible but not much out there to make one think snow is going to happen here this season
Quoting 178. HaoleboySurfEC:

Sister in Ipswich has had enough. This is rough, especially with deep cold to follow. They have a long way to go until spring as well; especially with that snowpack reinforcing the icebox.

Let's hope for a gradual melt this spring without heavy rains.




I've had enough, and even the dog is getting annoyed. Everyone is tired of snow days and, with Feb vacation week coming the week after Valentine's Day, we're all dreading being stuck indoors with polar temps outside.

The T was completely non-functional last week and roads are already so narrow, it makes you wonder how anything is going to function after getting another 24" on top. Roofs are sure to start collapsing and, with the mountains of snow on every corner, even walking is treacherous.

I'm contemplating packing the kid and the dog into the car and heading south on Friday....maybe some of you in the warm zones like Florida could recommend a place that would welcome both dog and 8yo. As long as it has a pool or a beach, the kid should be set. :)
Two important planetary ecosystems, coral reefs and polar regions, are on the front lines of the acidification crisis. Coral reefs critical to the protection of coastlines across tropical and subtropical parts of the world will disappear as the rate of erosion exceeds the rate at which corals can rebuild — with staggering repercussions for related ecosystems like mangrove and seagrass.
I seriously doubt the whole world will do something about this CO2 pollution,nothing will change..until its too late huh
Quoting 194. LargoFl:

I seriously doubt the whole world will do something about this CO2 pollution,nothing will change..until its too late huh


You starting to see why we are a bit concerned? (And why it's extremely annoying to deal with a bunch of naysayers who claim it isn't happening despite all the evidence from multiple natural and technological measurements?)
Quoting 192. aevil2:



I've had enough, and even the dog is getting annoyed. Everyone is tired of snow days and, with Feb vacation week coming the week after Valentine's Day, we're all dreading being stuck indoors with polar temps outside.

The T was completely non-functional last week and roads are already so narrow, it makes you wonder how anything is going to function after getting another 24" on top. Roofs are sure to start collapsing and, with the mountains of snow on every corner, even walking is treacherous.

I'm contemplating packing the kid and the dog into the car and heading south on Friday....maybe some of you in the warm zones like Florida could recommend a place that would welcome both dog and 8yo. As long as it has a pool or a beach, the kid should be set. :)
Don't forget about another snow storm maybe Thurs-Fri
Lots of snow forecast in different areas. Saw this photo uploaded to WU recently. No snow day for these kids!


Photo by WU member Kennebunker, taken in Kennebunk, Maine, uploaded February 5, 2015

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EST Sun Feb 08 2015

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2015 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2015

...Wet weather will continue across northern California and the Pacific
Northwest...

...Snow will begin to pile up over portions of New England...

...Temperatures are expected to remain well above average in the Rockies
and Southern Plains...

After a brief lull in shower activity across the West...a strong cold
front approaching the coast will bring another surge of moisture and round
of heavy rain into northern California and the Pacific Northwest Sunday
night. Precipitation will spread east over the northern Rockies as the
cold front progresses inland on Monday. Initially high snow levels will
begin to drop with the frontal passage...leading to locally heavy snowfall
accumulations along the Cascades...Rockies...and Sierra Nevada Range.
Once the front pushes out into the northern Plains Monday night...a wintry
mix of precipitation will be possible over portions of eastern Montana and
the Dakotas.


An axis of snow will continue to set up to the north of a frontal boundary
stretched from the Great Lakes to the Northeast coast. A deepening
surface low along the boundary and increased flow off the Atlantic will
help enhance snowfall rates over portions of New England Sunday and
Monday...and the long duration of the event should lead to impressive
snowfall accumulations.
A narrow area of sleet...freezing rain...and rain
will be possible to the south of the snow axis. As the deepening surface
low sinks southeastward Monday night into Tuesday...scattered shower
activity will be possible ahead of the trailing cold front pushing towards
the Southeast coast.

Elsewhere across the Nation...temperatures will remain well above normal
beneath an upper ridge sliding in over the Rockies and southern Plains
early this week.

Gerhardt



And by Tuesday morning:

Quoting BayFog:

Yep, I saw the same mention in the SF Discussion, which said the chance also exists in the Bay Area, which is not entirely surprising given the dynamism of the system offshore evident in the satellite, the inclusion of some cold air, and the ambient moisture both from the recent rain and the higher than normal coastal SSTs, not to mention an associated jet streak/max.
My parents used to live in Willows. I don't know if it's the topgraphy and the way that storms get funneled down the valley but the area from about Williams north to Red Bluff seems to be the epicenter for tornadoes in California. I haven't looked up the numbers but, except for the coastal strip in the LA basin that gets more weak tornadoes in winter storms, I'd bet the northern Sacramento Valley gets the highest number of tornadoes annually. We'll see if it happens again today.
Quoting 174. hurricanes2018:


cold week coming
Best Sunday greetings from currently a bit chilly but bright and sunny Germany. Looks like poor Albania experienced the worst impacts of all the severe weather in Southern Europe earlier:


Fight for survival in Albania floods
BBC, 7 hours ago
Residents in southern Albania have been forced from their homes, after torrential rain hit parts of the Balkans over the past week.
Hundreds of houses remain under water, and thousands of acres of land have been destroyed in some of the worst flooding to hit the region in years.
The BBC's Nabeela Zahir reports.


I'm sorry that I currently don't have as much time as usual for posting in here. Hope everybody is fine and will have a nice new week!
Quoting 198. LAbonbon:







no more snow
Quoting LAbonbon:



And by Tuesday morning:

Good morning Bonnie. Had the first night above freezing in the past five nights (although just barely, at 34) and it looks like a very nice day today, with just some high clouds and warm air advection giving me a high of about 72. The humidity is finally starting to climb after a low of 17% yesterday, and my nose knew it. The front shown on the map really starts to fizzle as it gets south of Montgomery, so we'll be lucky to get a tenth or so as it passes by. The air behind it is pretty heavily modified so we should stay near average and hopefully stay above nocturnal freezing. Nice weather until Thursday when the next and even more dry front comes through. There's quite a bit of disagreement on how cold the air will be after that front, but it shouldn't be any worse than lows in the mid-20's, which has been pretty typical since November. Maybe we start our slow Southern spring warm up next week. That should mean an increase in chances of severe weather but I'll take it, as long as I can put the parka back in storage again. :-)
Bapo weakens to Subtropical Depression over South Atlantic. Probably already is post-tropical in the next "advisory".


And just when I was enjoying the spring like weather -_-

Someone please tell me when this crap will be over with? Please be done with by late February.
Quoting 204. sar2401:

Good morning Bonnie. Had the first night above freezing in the past five nights (although just barely, at 34) and it looks like a very nice day today, with just some high clouds and warm air advection giving me a high of about 72. The humidity is finally starting to climb after a low of 17% yesterday, and my nose knew it. The front shown on the map really starts to fizzle as it gets south of Montgomery, so we'll be lucky to get a tenth or so as it passes by. The air behind it is pretty heavily modified so we should stay near average and hopefully stay above nocturnal freezing. Nice weather until Thursday when the next and even more dry front comes through. There's quite a bit of disagreement on how cold the air will be after that front, but it shouldn't be any worse than lows in the mid-20's, which has been pretty typical since November. Maybe we start our slow Southern spring warm up next week. That should mean an increase in chances of severe weather but I'll take it, as long as I can put the parka back in storage again. :-)

Morning, Sar...parka?? LOL-your blood really has thinned, hasn't it?

Been having internet difficulties since yesterday...my router went on the fritz...bought it 3 months ago....called Linksys, they said I was a couple days beyond 'phone service' warranty, and asked for $35 or $36 just to talk to me. Said no thanks, I'd rather buy another router (from another provider) than pay extortion money. Really got me annoyed, as this router wasn't cheap, I bought it specifically to handle high internet usage/speeds. This morning I simply unplugged/re-plugged in/re-started...and voila! back in the game. My home office and hard-wiring to the modem is not ideal, as it's not set up for comfortable internet surfing... :)

One thing I did realize (other than Linksys' customer support is awful) is that Cox's recent internet speed upgrade is significant. I knew this when I ran a speedtest while using the router; I ran one while hard-wired, and wow! What a difference. And it handled this site as well as other similar sites really well.

BTW, loved your conspiracy post from last night. That article lifted from CNN is still on the Science Recorder's site. That's not a site I frequent, but knowing they do that makes their integrity really questionable, IMHO.

(Edit: typo)
Quoting barbamz:
Best Sunday greetings from currently a bit chilly but bright and sunny Germany. Looks like poor Albania experienced the worst impacts of all the severe weather in Southern Europe earlier:


Fight for survival in Albania floods
BBC, 7 hours ago
Residents in southern Albania have been forced from their homes, after torrential rain hit parts of the Balkans over the past week.
Hundreds of houses remain under water, and thousands of acres of land have been destroyed in some of the worst flooding to hit the region in years.
The BBC's Nabeela Zahir reports.


I'm sorry that I currently don't have as much time as usual for posting in here. Hope everybody is fine and will have a nice new week!
Thanks for the update. Poor Albania. The most poverty stricken country in Europe and now this. More heavy snow further north into Croatia and Slovenia as well. The Balkans have really taken it on the chin this year.
Quoting 195. Naga5000:



You starting to see why we are a bit concerned? (And why it's extremely annoying to deal with a bunch of naysayers who claim it isn't happening despite all the evidence from multiple natural and technological measurements?)
yes and its probably happening all over the world..humans just worry about today and don't think about whats going to happen 50-100 years from now..well it will be their grandchildren who will be dealing with it..IF they are still around.
Quoting 206. washingtonian115:

And just when I was enjoying the spring like weather -_-

Someone please tell me when this crap will be over with? Please be done with by late February.



If only this spring-like weather stayed. Maybe in march. :(
Good Afternoon. Great catch with that video from 1958 basically laying out the argument that science continues to confirm over the past several decades. Had to chuckle when I saw the actor in the video; same dude that tried to take down Klaatu in the Day the Earth Stood Still for his own personal gain........................... :)



Warm front just passing thru the SF Bay Area at this hour. We've been getting several hours of moderate to heavy rain. Radar and closeup satellite shows blossoming cells offshore, probably from the trailing cold front. Very unstable core associated with cold air and jet streak/max beyond that. Looks like two vortices, the northerly one probably the surface low, the southerly one the upper low.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Morning, Sar...parka?? LOL-your blood really has thinned, hasn't it?

Been having internet difficulties since yesterday...my router went on the fritz...bought it 3 months ago....called Linksys, they said I was a couple days beyond 'phone service' warranty, and asked for $35 or $36 just to talk to me. Said no thanks, I'd rather buy another router (from another provider) than pay extortion money. Really got me annoyed, as this router wasn't cheap, I bought it specifically to handle high internet usage/speeds. This morning I simply unplugged/re-plugged in/re-started...and voila! back in the game. My home office and hard-wiring to the modem is not ideal, as it's not set up for comfortable internet surfing... :)

One thing I did realize (other than Linksys' customer support is awful) is that Cox's recent internet speed upgrade is significant. I knew this when I ran a speedtest while using the router; I ran one while hard-wired, and wow! What a difference. And it handled this site as well as other similar sites really well.

BTW, loved your conspiracy post from last night. That article lifted from CNN is still on the Science Recorder's site. That's not I site I frequent, but knowing they do that makes their integrity really questionable, IMHO.
Darn right I need that parka. You try taking Radar Dog for his nightly walk when it's below freezing and the wind's blowing 20 mph! I'm a wimp anyway when it comes to cold but this is the coldest I remember in the 10 years I lived here.

Linksys generally makes good routers. You discovered the one trick that almost always works with a stalled router - power it down, let it sit for a half-hour or so, and then cold start it. Assuming it doesn't suffer infantile failure, most routers will run just about forever. They can get some bad commands stuck in the internal RAM or registers, and the power down thing usually sets it to right again. I've got my router feeding my wifi system from the cable modem since my fiance needs the internet too and this old house isn't set up for hardwiring routers. I think I paid $36 for a 500 Mbps router from China and another $20 a piece for 1 watt wireless adapters. Back in my trailer trash day, I used a similar adapter with a high gain directional antenna to glom onto any open systems I could find. I could reliably pick up systems from a mile or so away. Now I'm stuck paying Time Warner their outrageous fees since there aren't any open systems in my area. If only I was closer to a McDonald's....

I never heard of that website either, but it seems it's just another internet news feed accumulator that doesn't do any checking for source reliability or even if they copied an entire story. Not a very reliable source unless you like hunting down stories to get in an arm flapping panic. :-) The same way we hunt for new weather sites, he hunts for yet more evidence that we are being lied to.
Quoting 210. TimTheWxMan:




If only this spring-like weather stayed. Maybe in march. :(
Yes.The Family and I got out and about yesterday.I went out into the garden this morning and planted some seeds and it wasn't that cold either.
More rain across parts of California
Sunrise on the tidal basin


And Sunset
PDO is a little positive today ;)
I used to study various Martial Arts with a couple of Albanian brothers. My goodness those guys were brick houses. Tough bunch. The younger brother was Olympic level good.

Their family didn't come from much, but they made the most of the opportunities afforded them here in the US.

Almost 70F here in Florence. Windy. Working in the garden this afternoon. Broccoli, lettuce and spinach being planted after this next round of cold air exits.

Quoting 208. sar2401:

Thanks for the update. Poor Albania. The most poverty stricken country in Europe and now this. More heavy snow further north into Croatia and Slovenia as well. The Balkans have really taken it on the chin this year.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
I used to study various Martial Arts with a couple of Albanian brothers. My goodness those guys were brick houses. Tough bunch. The younger brother was Olympic level good.

Their family didn't come from much, but they made the most of the opportunities afforded them here in the US.

Almost 70F here in Florence. Windy. Working in the garden this afternoon. Broccoli, lettuce and spinach being planted after this next round of cold air exits.

Look up blood feuds in Albania. You'll understand why those guys were so tough. 68 here and breezy south winds. I'd almost think I was going to get some rain if I didn't know better. :-)
So far this winter season, Boston Logan International Airport has picked up 52.2" of snow, or the 22nd highest total on record at that location. The NWS office in Taunton is currently calling for an additional 21.1" through Tuesday, which would bring the tally up to 73.3", or the 9th highest total on record at that location. Computer guidance indicates the potential for several more snowstorms over the coming week. Top 5 begins at 85.1" and the number 1 spot stands at 107.6". We'll end up somewhere between those two values, if I had to make a prediction.

Quoting aevil2:


I've had enough, and even the dog is getting annoyed. Everyone is tired of snow days and, with Feb vacation week coming the week after Valentine's Day, we're all dreading being stuck indoors with polar temps outside.

The T was completely non-functional last week and roads are already so narrow, it makes you wonder how anything is going to function after getting another 24" on top. Roofs are sure to start collapsing and, with the mountains of snow on every corner, even walking is treacherous.

I'm contemplating packing the kid and the dog into the car and heading south on Friday....maybe some of you in the warm zones like Florida could recommend a place that would welcome both dog and 8yo. As long as it has a pool or a beach, the kid should be set. :)
Check out Gulf Shores AL east to Panama City FL. It's the Redneck Riviera and there are lots of different accommodations, many of which will accept pets. Very pretty white sand beaches. Not as warm as further south but way better than up there and about half the price. The water temperatures are about 70 so it's still a little nippy for beach swimming, but an 8 year old would probably think it's fine. :-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So far this winter season, Boston Logan International Airport has picked up 52.2" of snow, or the 22nd highest total on record at that location. The NWS office in Taunton is currently calling for an additional 21.1" through Tuesday, which would bring the tally up to 73.3", or the 9th highest total on record at that location. Computer guidance indicates the potential for several more snowstorms over the coming week. Top 5 begins at 86.6" and the number 1 spot stands at 107.6". We'll end up somewhere between those two values, if I had to make a prediction.
Reminds me of 2004-2005 in Cleveland. Thank goodness I was long gone, but that winter ended up with 117 inches, and it didn't stop snowing from Thanksgiving through Easter. The snow piles in parking lots didn't melt until Memorial Day. By March, my relatives were either suicidal or homicidal. Great place to live.
Gonzo released a buttload of dropsondes off of California this morning, and Miss Piggy is currently out there. Google Earth


Been a sloppy not cold winter. I don't think we have had a single day with a high below zero. Yesterday was so nice I got out worked on my winter beater truck. I needed to check the oil, add a little fuel, windshield washer fluid and repair the door handle.

Looks like we will have some snow Wednesday, today the grass is showing, and then drop to -11 with a 20 mph wind. That should be uncomfortable, fortunately I have smart wool socks, Kamak -25 insulated boots, Carhart base layer, and Carhart flannel lined pants. Although, I wouldn't mind having a mad bomber fur lined hat like my son has, the hats I have do not keep my cheeks from freezing.

I will not be cold on my morning commute.

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw: 58102.1.99999

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting sar2401:
Check out Gulf Shores AL east to Panama City FL. It's the Redneck Riviera and there are lots of different accommodations, many of which will accept pets. Very pretty white sand beaches. Not as warm as further south but way better than up there and about half the price. The water temperatures are about 70 so it's still a little nippy for beach swimming, but an 8 year old would probably think it's fine. :-)


Water temperature is 53 degrees in Dauphin Island AL.
Even over in Pensacola Florida the water temps in 55 degrees.

If you want water temperatures around 70 degrees(coastal water at the beaches) you need to get down into S.W. Florida near Naples.

Link
***Purely amateur thoughts***

Possible nothing will happen because of ongoing rain, but today's severe potential in central/northern California is interesting.

You got to consider geography - coastal mountains and, north of SF/Sacto, the Sacramento River. (I have a thing about rivers and severe.) My best guess for cell formation, based on 500 mb and 850 mb wind crossover, lies north in Glenn and southern Tehama counties. Seems these, if they form, will tend to move ENE. Watch for storm(s) moving toward Butte County. Terrain north of Red Bluff, where wide crossover winds are happening I think gets mountainous too quickly, though southern Shasta County (Cottonwood?) could be a possible storm cell crossing.


SPC mesoanalysis page 850/500 wind crossover, approx 10:30 a.m. central time


Overlain on the SPC 10:30 cst Day 1 outlook tornado probs (brown = 5%, green = 2 %) my guesses for best cell formation chances, with smaller orange dots representing areas where the coastal mountains could affect surface winds and increase chance for a spinning storm.


Close up, my favorite guess for a spinny cell crossing in the northern end of SPC's tornado risk area.
Quoting 226. Sfloridacat5:



Water temperature is 53 degrees in Dauphin Island AL.
Even over in Pensacola Florida the water temps in 55 degrees.

If you want water temperatures around 70 degrees(coastal water at the beaches) you need to get down into S.W. Florida near Naples.

Link



NC/SC waters about the same.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH READINGS OF ZERO TO TEN BELOW ZERO AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Quoting 186. Neapolitan:

That's a nice opinion. Unfortunately for the many hundreds of millions of people who depend on the ocean for food, that opinion isn't based in anything close to scientific reality. The ocean's are absorbing as much of the four million tons of CO2 we pump into the ocean every hour of every day as they can, and that means acidification is rising far too rapidly for any living organism to evolve.

However, I will concede that many species will most certainly adapt--but keep in mind that extinction is itself a form of adaptation.


The Winners, Losers of Ocean Acidification

Populations of certain types of marine organisms known collectively as the ‘biofouling community’ – tiny creatures that attach themselves to ships’ hulls and rocks – may quadruple within decades, while others may see their numbers reduced by as much as 80 percent, if the world’s oceans continue to become more acidic, according to new research.

While these animals are primarily viewed by humans as pests – removal of biofouling organisms costs about $22 billion annually – they also play an important role in marine environments, primarily as food sources for larger organisms.

The researchers, from the University of Cambridge, British Antarctic Survey and Centro de Ciências do Mar, found that as acidity increased, organisms with shells, such as tube worms, saw their numbers reduced to just one-fifth their current numbers, while animals without shells, such as sponges and sea squirts, doubled or even quadrupled in number. The results, published today (28 January) in the journal Global Change Biology, show how these communities may respond to future change.


Link
IMPORTANT SPACE WEATHER SATELLITE SET TO LAUNCH: NOAA, NASA and the US Air Force are about to launch a satellite that is critical to space weather forecasting: The Deep Space Climate Observatory ("DSCOVR" for short) will monitor solar wind from the L1 point one-million miles upstream from Earth and succeed the aging ACE spacecraft in providing early warnings of incoming CMEs and other solar storms. Currently, weather is 90% favorable for liftoff at 6:10:12 p.m. EST on Sunday, Feb. 8, from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Monitor the launch blog for updates.
It's odd that the US high tech centers seem to be suffering the most from possible effects of climate change - the Northeast seeing precipitation amounts well beyond what it can handle, and California completely drying up. These are the same places suffering economic stagnation and multiple other push factors for the residents. Meanwhile the South has big problems if summers like 2012 become more frequent.

Like I've been saying, pack your bags for Wisconsin folks.
Quoting 233. wxgeek723:

It's odd that the US high tech centers seem to be suffering the most from possible climate change - the Northeast seeing precipitation amounts well beyond what it can handle, and California completely drying up. These are the same places suffering economic stagnation and multiple other push factors for the residents. Meanwhile the South has big problems if summers like 2012 become more frequent.

Like I've been saying, pack your bags for Wisconsin folks.
Snow= disruptive
no water=death
not equivocal situations
and not even the whole NE is getting all that much snow, its eastern New England.
Quoting 234. Methurricanes:

Snow= disruptive
no water=death
not equivocal situations
and not even the whole NE is getting all that much snow, its eastern New England.


The amount of snow that Boston has seen recently and currently faces is becoming more than just disruptive. New England has been unfairly slammed recently, but the whole Northeast is seeing blatant increases in precipitation amounts. Travel in Boston is already difficult given past storms, godspeed to them if they can handle two more feet.
Subtropical Depression Bapo becomes extratropical. Adios Bapo, us brazilians will miss you.



Near peak intensity (40 mph/992 mbar):


Bapo path's:
heavy showers just west of s. latin america could this be a sign of a wet rainy season ahead? most of the area could use it.
Quoting 56. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You could say that, but then again that would be a gross generalization of 316 million people.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Water temperature is 53 degrees in Dauphin Island AL.
Even over in Pensacola Florida the water temps in 55 degrees.

If you want water temperatures around 70 degrees(coastal water at the beaches) you need to get down into S.W. Florida near Naples.

Link
I was apparently steered wrong by SurfForecast.com then, which is usually pretty reliable. I did think that seemed kind of high, but it was wishful thinking that I might see some of that warmth I guess.
Quoting 217. Gearsts:

PDO is a little positive today ;)

Quoting Qazulight:
Been a sloppy not cold winter. I don't think we have had a single day with a high below zero. Yesterday was so nice I got out worked on my winter beater truck. I needed to check the oil, add a little fuel, windshield washer fluid and repair the door handle.

Looks like we will have some snow Wednesday, today the grass is showing, and then drop to -11 with a 20 mph wind. That should be uncomfortable, fortunately I have smart wool socks, Kamak -25 insulated boots, Carhart base layer, and Carhart flannel lined pants. Although, I wouldn't mind having a mad bomber fur lined hat like my son has, the hats I have do not keep my cheeks from freezing.

I will not be cold on my morning commute.

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw: 58102.1.99999

Cheers
Qazulight
How can you sound so happy when it's going to be 20 below zero? I would drop dead before I ever made it to the truck let alone have to worry about the commute. :-)
Quoting 214. washingtonian115:

Yes.The Family and I got out and about yesterday.I went out into the garden this morning and planted some seeds and it wasn't that cold either.



It's an absolutely perfect day here. 66 degrees, light winds and not a cloud in the sky. We better have a lot more days like that this spring. Today and yesterday are just a spring tease. Unfortunately it's supposed to get to only 29 on thursday. :(
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The population clock points out a major issue for the future. Without immigration we would be approaching, if not at, zero population growth. Most of Europe has long since entered the time of negative birth rate growth among natives. The native populations are also aging, so those with the highest rates of income and consumption are becoming a smaller percentage of the population. Only immigration keeps most developed countries from a falling population. Since it takes generations (if ever, in some cases) before immigrant populations reach economic parity with natives, this is going to present economic challenges in the decades ahead that will also impact the developed world's ability to implement programs to adapt to climate change. I was extremely lucky to have been born and reached productive adulthood at a time when this country was at its peak of prosperity and optimism. I wish I could say the same for our young people now. :-(
Quoting 226. Sfloridacat5:



Water temperature is 53 degrees in Dauphin Island AL.
Even over in Pensacola Florida the water temps in 55 degrees.

If you want water temperatures around 70 degrees(coastal water at the beaches) you need to get down into S.W. Florida near Naples.

Link


Those temps make the coastal SSTs off California even more remarkable. Upper 50s at the coldest time of the seasonal record. For example, currently 57.4 F at the SF Buoy parked 18M west of the Golden Gate. And still a southerly current.


Click to enlarge ...
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI (09-20142015)
22:00 PM RET February 8 2015
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fundi (991 hPa) located at 32.3S 44.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 18 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 34.9S 42.6E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
24 HRS 35.8S 40.6E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 36.8S 40.1E - 25 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
72 HRS 38.8S 42.7E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
=================
Under the double influences of a rather strong north northwesterly vertical wind shear and a mid level northwesterly dry air intrusion inside the circulation, the low level circulation is partially exposed, on MSG3 imagery, north of the residual convective activity.

This dry and cooler air intrusion inside the circulation reveals the beginning of extra-tropicalization process that is expected to be completed Monday late or Tuesday early.

As expected, under the steering influence of the low/mid levels ridge (refer Z700 and Z850) that is rebuilding in the southeast, Fundi recurves and slows down south southwestwards. On Monday, it is expected to keep on slowing down globally west southwestwards. This aforementioned ridge should progressively shift eastwards on Tuesday and Fundi should therefore recurve slowly southwards in a first time then accelerate southeastwards on Wednesday. Fundi is expected to dissipate within the mid-lat westerlies Wednesday late or Tuesday early.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HIGOS (1502)
3:00 AM JST February 9 2015
================================
Near Marshall Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Higos (985 hPa) located at 12.2N 156.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 12.7N 154.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Truks (Chuuk) waters
48 HRS: 14.8N 152.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 17.0N 151.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
Quoting BayFog:

Those temps make the coastal SSTs off California even more remarkable. Upper 50s at the coldest time of the seasonal record. For example, currently 57.4 F at the SF Buoy parked 18M west of the Golden Gate. And still a southerly current.


Above average, but normal is in the 50s for this time of year for San Francisco. Water temperatures don't vary a lot from season to season in the San Francisco area.

San Francisco's average water temp.

February 53
August 60

On the other hand the Florida Panhandle water temperature varies greatly from season to season.

Pensacola's average water temp

February 58
August 86

This is just a regional radar grab (edit) on the preliminary events at 11:45 am pst. Main event, if there is to be one, is scheduled 3-6 pm pst, per SPC's 2 pm cst Day 1 Convective Outlook.
WU local radar from SF and Sacto nexrad sites showed some rotation in the storm N of Monterey Bay and in one up in Humboldt County on the NW coast.

Quoting 249. Sfloridacat5:



Above average, but normal is in the 50s for this time of year for San Francisco. Water temperatures don't vary a lot from season to season in the San Francisco area.

San Francisco's average water temp.

February 53
August 60

On the other hand the Florida Panhandle water temperature varies greatly from season to season.

Pensacola's average water temp

February 58
August 86



57.4 would be warm in summer off SF. It's unusual by local standards. It's part of the unusually warmer North Pacific. Also unusual is the persistent southerly current.
Pacific coast (north Pacific) is warmer than normal (as mentioned -BayFog).
Some cool spots over in the east Atlantic and down off South America.
maybe light snow in east haven soon mix with sleet
Historic Storm in the Northwestpacific:
Tropical Storm Higos, now Typhoon Higos, has become the first recorded storm to occur in the "blank period" between February the 8th, 12 UTC, and 14th, 18 UTC, which means that before there has been no (named) tropical cyclone in this period since at least 1945.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pacific_typhoon _season
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/help/se ason.html.en
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/be st_tracks/wpindex.php
Torched up to 63 degrees today
Quoting Drakoen:
Torched up to 63 degrees today

High has been 49 here.
Typhoon Higos now forecasted to become a category 2 equivalent storm over the open Western Pacific.
Very impressive outflow.

Quoting 257. BaltimoreBrian:



High has been 49 here.


Yeah pretty good meridional temperature gradient.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yeah pretty good meridional temperature gradient.


How far are you from Federal Hill?
Quoting 255. Drakoen:

Torched up to 63 degrees today

Currently 71F here. Yuck.
Quoting 260. BaltimoreBrian:



How far are you from Federal Hill?


42 minutes.
263. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082130Z - 082300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE TO A LEVEL THAT REQUIRES A WATCH...BUT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME.

DISCUSSION...GIVEN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AND DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND FIELDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AS A 90-100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA.

HOWEVER...AS OF 2130Z...THE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS UNCLEAR. AN EVOLVING PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION...CONTINUES TO RESTRICT SURFACE HEATING. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT...EVEN NEAR THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL COLD CORE...WHICH MAY NOT IMPACT THE INTERIOR VALLEYS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY COLD /MODELS SUGGEST -20 TO -22C AT 500 MB/. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT DOES APPEAR THAT BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLEAR SLOT IS IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. AS THIS FEATURE ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME...ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFYING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON AREAS...PERHAPS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR/HART.. 02/08/2015

weather looks good for the 6:10 rocket launch tonight......................
Quoting 256. hurricanes2018:


snow will be here soon in new haven!!
Quoting 245. sar2401:

The population clock points out a major issue for the future. Without immigration we would be approaching, if not at, zero population growth. Most of Europe has long since entered the time of negative birth rate growth among natives. The native populations are also aging, so those with the highest rates of income and consumption are becoming a smaller percentage of the population. Only immigration keeps most developed countries from a falling population. Since it takes generations (if ever, in some cases) before immigrant populations reach economic parity with natives, this is going to present economic challenges in the decades ahead that will also impact the developed world's ability to implement programs to adapt to climate change. I was extremely lucky to have been born and reached productive adulthood at a time when this country was at its peak of prosperity and optimism. I wish I could say the same for our young people now. :-(


Absolutely. Currently, counting immigrants, the U.S. is at 1.9 total fertility rate, slightly under the replacement rate of about 2.1, but dividing the groups, immigrants are actually above the replacement rate, while native borns are lagging further behind. Europe is even worse than the U.S. The Demographic-Economic Paradox at work. It is no surprise that late stage capitalist societies are seeing declining fertility rates.
Quoting LargoFl:
weather looks good for the 6:10 rocket launch tonight......................


Weather is perfect outside here.
Sunny, 74 degrees, light breeze.
I definitely took advantage of the Spring like weather today.I went out in the garden and planted some seeds and then went up the street to the little cafe and set outside.I really wish it could stay like this for the rest of February :(.
Tomorrow will be another warm day across a large part of the U.S.
It's interesting to note that a science fiction novel by Harry Harrison was published in 1958. "Make Room, Make Room!" takes place in a future New York City where pollution-driven global warming has caused an almost perpetual heat-wave. The novel was the basis for the classic sci-fi movie "Soylent Green." BTW, it also touched on other topics relevant to today's precarious situation, like the wealth gap and the potential for the collapse of the marine eco-system (e.g. no phytoplankton=no oxygen and the collapse of the food chain).
Quoting 268. washingtonian115:

I definitely took advantage of the Spring like weather today.I went out in the garden and planted some seeds and then went up the street to the little cafe and set outside.I really wish it could stay like this for the rest of February :(.


It won't. Strong positive PNA and negative EPO regime coming up. Deep west coast ringing and east coast troughing.
Quoting 272. Drakoen:



It won't. Strong positiv PNA and negative EPO regime coming up. Deep west coast ringing and east coast troughing.
Sigh.Well D.C tied a record high temperature of 68 degrees today.It was very crowded here in N.W D.C and it looks like it was crowded everywhere.
Link
Link

Swellinfo a good resource.


Quoting 240. sar2401:

I was apparently steered wrong by SurfForecast.com then, which is usually pretty reliable. I did think that seemed kind of high, but it was wishful thinking that I might see some of that warmth I guess.
Typhoon Higos

Typhoon Higos
Last Updated Feb 9, 2015 18 GMT
Location 12.2N 156.7E Movement WNW
Wind 75 MPH
Nearby Weather Stations feb 8 2015 at 6:15pm light snow with sleet
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
31.4 F
DopplerDon.com
31.8 F
Rock Hill
30.1 F
Foxon
30.4 F
East Haven Town Beach
32.5 F
east haven morgan point
32.7 F
Lighthouse Point
34.1 F
Quoting 274. HaoleboySurfEC:

Link

Swellinfo a good resource.





North O.C.
78F here in Jurupa Valley...
Winter Storm Warning
Statement as of 1:37 PM EST on February 08, 2015

...Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 1 am EST
Tuesday...


* locations...Massachusetts north of the Connecticut and Rhode
Island border.


* Hazard types...heavy snow.


* Snow accumulations...total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches
expected through early Tuesday morning. A localized heavier band
of 18 to 24 inches remains possible from near Boston and into
northeast Massachusetts.


* Timing...steady snow re-develops late this afternoon and early
this evening. Heaviest snow falls from tonight into Monday
evening. Snow may be falling at 1 to 2 inches per hour near the
I-95 corridor during the Monday morning rush hour.


* Impacts...hazardous driving conditions can be expected during
this long duration event. Blowing and drifting snow likely later
tonight Monday along the coast yielding poor visibility at
times.


* Winds...northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.


* Visibilities...one quarter to one half mile at times.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...


Travel will be slow at best on well treated surfaces...and quite
difficult on any unplowed or untreated surfaces.


Still got an eye out. No watch and the MCD expired.

Got shear potential. (Effective bulk shear from mesoanalysis page superimposed on population. About 3 pm Pacific)


Got clearing - 3 pm pst


Add: Maybe I'm just hungry for a good thunderstorm.


watch out for some ice on the roads then snow on the road will be bad because u can not see the ice on the roads with snow on the roads to..
Add: Maybe I'm just hungry for a good thunderstorm.

You and me both. It's a new year and I haven't heard thunder yet!
Snow Timing Published Feb 8 2015 06:32 PM EST
Monday's Forecast
Through Sunday night: Snow will gradually taper off (except for lingering lake-enhanced bands in spots) in the western Great Lakes, but will persist and may become heavy, at times, in New England and New York state later in the day. South of the area of snow, a thin band of freezing rain is possible in the Northeast, possibly again including parts of the New York City metro. A chilly rain is expected from the Ohio Valley generally near or south of the Mason-Dixon line. East to northeast winds will intensify along the coast of eastern New England, leading to reduced visibility in snow.

Monday - Monday night: Snow continues and may become heavy, at times, in New England, Upstate and central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. Any freezing rain will change over to snow during the day or by evening. Strong winds will increase in coastal New England, contributing to blowing/drifting snow, reduced visibility, at least some minor coastal flooding particularly in areas vulnerable after Winter Storms Juno and Linus, and possibly some sporadic power outages. Snow may begin to taper off from west to east Monday night.
Quoting 252. Sfloridacat5:

Pacific coast (north Pacific) is warmer than normal (as mentioned -BayFog).
Some cool spots over in the east Atlantic and down off South America.

Quoting 273. washingtonian115:

Sigh.Well D.C tied a record high temperature of 68 degrees today.It was very crowded here in N.W D.C and it looks like it was crowded everywhere.
Link


Yes, a lot of people out and about in downtown Silver Spring too
Quoting 214. washingtonian115:

Yes.The Family and I got out and about yesterday.I went out into the garden this morning and planted some seeds and it wasn't that cold either.


I went out to the rental garden and surveyed the damage. Plants under opaque covers since 1/5 were okay. One brussels sprout plant was killed. Six still okay. I pulled one to use in a soup or grens dish sometime this week. I didn't dig but I think I still have frost in the ground.. it had the slippery feel of mud over ice.
Broccoli under covers looks beat up but the heads look good. I suspect it won't do real well in spring.

But the alarming thing was I found whiteflies on uncovered plants. Whiteflies are not documented to overwinter in Maryland and this has not been a mild winter. But they were clearly there.
Quoting 273. washingtonian115:

Sigh.Well D.C tied a record high temperature of 68 degrees today.It was very crowded here in N.W D.C and it looks like it was crowded everywhere.
Link


If the GFS and Euro are to be believed, it will be bitter cold next weekend.. below freezing Friday-Sunday with lows in the teens or colder.
Quoting 179. NativeSun:

The oceans have been more acidic then they are now, and the coral reefs were thriving in those oceans. The organisms will adapt to the changing environment and at the rate the oceans are becoming more acidic, it will take many generations for the oceans to become acidic enough to kill all the corals and other organisms that depend on calcification to live and reproduce.
Oceans acidifying faster today than in past 300 million years

..."The ocean acidification we're seeing today is unprecedented," said Major, "even when viewed through the lens of the past 300 million years, a result of the very fast rates at which we're changing the chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans."...
Quoting 287. georgevandenberghe:



If the GFS and Euro are to be believed, it will be bitter cold next weekend.. below freezing Friday-Sunday with lows in the teens or colder.

It seems that i have seen some rising sst's in the tropical Atlantic. Some buoys range from 70 degrees to 80 ddegrees. 80s especially in the Caribbean. Mid-upper 70s in the gulf. Upper 70's east of the lesser Antilles. Have no observations near Africa though.
Quoting 287. georgevandenberghe:



If the GFS and Euro are to be believed, it will be bitter cold next weekend.. below freezing Friday-Sunday with lows in the teens or colder.


Hopefully we can get the northern and southern streams to cooperate and give us a Miller A we desperately need. Neutral NAO may make it difficult for the confluence to set up far enough west off the eastern seaboard.
Quoting 285. Drakoen:



Yes, a lot of people out and about in downtown Silver Spring too
it got to a balmy 15 degrees in Massachusetts, crazy Gradient, 15 in Worcester, and at the same time this afternoon, South Jersey was over 60.
Shockwave Flash Plug-in KILLS this page...
Quoting 280. hurricanes2018:



watch out for some ice on the roads then snow on the road will be bad because u can not see the ice on the roads with snow on the roads to..


I love how they put the NYC label directly over Long Island so you can't see a damn thing about what's going to happen here. Whoever made that map should be moved to another position. Give me the data and 2 minutes and I could make a way better map than that with ArcGIS.

At least make the white border around the NYC label transparent enough to get an idea...
Look how far north the critical thickness lines are. Crappy winter for sure

Well, it's been a pretty nice day around Humboldt Bay. I woke up at 0600 and was surprised how warm it was. It's been windy, but otherwise a great day. There's been some showers, but the sun has been out most of the time too., at least on my porch. Weird to be sitting in the sun, looking at a big patch of blue sky, but it's lightly raining. But like I said, it's windy, so who knows where those raindrops started from.

I got to say, running around this weekend in summer clothes has me a little nervous. It didn't used to be like this in February. It's just weather, right? Not climate change. Right???
Quoting 292. Drakoen:



Hopefully we can get the northern and southern streams to cooperate and give us a Miller A we desperately need. Neutral NAO may make it difficult for the confluence to set up far enough west of the eastern seaboard.
Its really amazing, Worcester, MA has about 80 (and counting) inches of Snow, and 250 miles away, Philadelphia, PA has 5.2inches for the winter
Quoting 242. sar2401:

How can you sound so happy when it's going to be 20 below zero? I would drop dead before I ever made it to the truck let alone have to worry about the commute. :-)


Keeps the rest of the Texans from coming up here an ruining the place. ;)

Last year we have several days of negative 20 in the morning, not neg 20 wind chill, negative 20 with a 20 mph wind, in fact, I think we had only a hand full of days where the wind wasn't howling. We also had a whole bunch of days that never got above zero Degrees F.

Frankly I am a little concerned, the ground will not have a snow pack to make it moist for the farmers.

You get used to it, then you really love the summers with days that last forever and evenings that are just glorious.

In just a year, I fell like moving to northern Colorado would be moving way south.

Cheers
Qazulight
This script is specifically killing this page... Script: http://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/1.7.2/ jquery.min.js:2
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HIGOS (1502)
9:00 AM JST February 9 2015
================================
Near Marshall Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Higos (985 hPa) located at 12.1N 156.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 13.1N 154.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Truks (Chuuk) waters
48 HRS: 15.1N 152.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Minami-tori shima waters
72 HRS: 18.5N 152.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Minami-tori shima waters

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
DEPRESSION POST TROPICALE, FORMER TC FUNDI (09-20142015)
4:00 AM RET February 9 2015
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Post Tropical Depression, Former Fundi (990 hPa) located at 34.2S 43.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The low is reported as moving south southwest at 19 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 85 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 185 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 260 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 290 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 35.4S 42.0E - 40 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
24 HRS 36.1S 40.3E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 38.2S 42.0E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
72 HRS 41.2S 49.9E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
=================
Experiencing a rather strong north northwesterly vertical wind shear and a mid level northerly dry air intrusion inside the circulation, the low level circulation is partially exposed, on MSG3 imagery, north of the residual convective activity.

This dry and cooler air intrusion inside the circulation reveals the beginning of extra-tropicalization process that is expected to be completed Monday late or Tuesday early.

Under the steering influence of the low/mid levels ridge (refer Z700 and Z850) that is rebuilding in the southeast, Fundi is expected to slow down globally west southwestwards. This aforementioned ridge should progressively shift eastwards on Tuesday and Fundi should therefore re-curve slowly southwards in a first time then accelerate southeastwards on Wednesday. Fundi is expected to dissipate within the mid-lat westerlies Wednesday late or Tuesday early.

Was 78F here today...
Quoting Naga5000:

Absolutely. Currently, counting immigrants, the U.S. is at 1.9 total fertility rate, slightly under the replacement rate of about 2.1, but dividing the groups, immigrants are actually above the replacement rate, while native borns are lagging further behind. Europe is even worse than the U.S. The Demographic-Economic Paradox at work. It is no surprise that late stage capitalist societies are seeing declining fertility rates.

France is an exception. Their fertility rate is 2.008 while in the USA it is 1.86
orecast details:

Many locations will see up to a foot or more of total snowfall. Amounts of up to 2 feet are possible in parts of central and northeast Massachusetts. See our forecast map below for details.
Boston, Albany, N.Y. and Worcester, Mass. are among the cities where a foot or more of snow could pile up.
New York City is in the transition zone for precipitation types. A mixture of freezing rain and snow is expected Sunday night through Monday Night. The ice accumulations will make for slick travel conditions. We expect the wintry mix to change over to all snow late Monday into Monday night with light accumulations possible.
Light ice accumulations are possible as far south as southeast Pennsylvania and northern new Jersey, including just northwest of the Philadelphia metro area.
Gusty winds will impact parts of eastern New England, leading to blowing and drifting snow.
Travel will be greatly impacted late Sunday through Monday night across a large portion of the Northeast, from New England to eastern Pennsylvania and southeast New York. Expect delays on both roads and at airports through the region. I-95, I-84, I-90, I-91 and I-81 are among the interstates in the region that will be impacted.
Quoting 282. aquak9:

Add: Maybe I'm just hungry for a good thunderstorm.

You and me both. It's a new year and I haven't heard thunder yet!


Make that 3. I haven't seen any severe weather since October 13th, when there were several tornadoes east of the STL metro. I was stuck in class during them but there was some occasional lightning. The weather's been really boring all winter. There have only been less than 6 inches of snow so far.
Quoting 306. hurricanes2018:

orecast details:

Many locations will see up to a foot or more of total snowfall. Amounts of up to 2 feet are possible in parts of central and northeast Massachusetts. See our forecast map below for details.
Boston, Albany, N.Y. and Worcester, Mass. are among the cities where a foot or more of snow could pile up.
New York City is in the transition zone for precipitation types. A mixture of freezing rain and snow is expected Sunday night through Monday Night. The ice accumulations will make for slick travel conditions. We expect the wintry mix to change over to all snow late Monday into Monday night with light accumulations possible.
Light ice accumulations are possible as far south as southeast Pennsylvania and northern new Jersey, including just northwest of the Philadelphia metro area.
Gusty winds will impact parts of eastern New England, leading to blowing and drifting snow.
Travel will be greatly impacted late Sunday through Monday night across a large portion of the Northeast, from New England to eastern Pennsylvania and southeast New York. Expect delays on both roads and at airports through the region. I-95, I-84, I-90, I-91 and I-81 are among the interstates in the region that will be impacted.


How much snow do you think you'll see?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
1128 AM SST SUN FEB 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PAGO PAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
TUTUILA AUNUU

* UNTIL 2 PM SST

* HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE TRIGGERED RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. THE
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE RECEIVED OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITHIN
THE PAST 45 MINUTES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL GENERATE HEAVY DOWNPOUR TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IMMEDIATELY IF YOUR HOME IS IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON
FOOT. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE LOCAL POLICE OFFICIALS OR THE
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER /EOC/...THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
Quoting 303. washingtonian115:


Is that by Gaylord? National Harbor?
Quoting 310. Tornado6042008X:

Is that by Gaylord? National Harbor?
Yes :).I have been on the "Capital Wheel" and when you're at the top you do get good views of D.C M.D and some of V.A.Its best to go on a clear day or clear night.I have went on for both the night and day ones.I must say it is high tech! heating and cooling seats and mini bar in the VIP ones.Good local and tourist site.
Next 6 Hours east haven weather 8:41 PM EST on February 08, 2015
Wintry mix after 11pm. Cloudy with temperatures steady in the mid 20s. No significant snow accumulations through 2:00am.
Quoting 311. BaltimoreBrian:

Just for fun

Claim: Fiddling With Temperature Data Is The Biggest Science Scandal Ever




Thanks for the Laugh Brian....
Quoting 308. TimTheWxMan:



How much snow do you think you'll see?
only a few inches of snow if you live right next to the coast line more sleet mixing with the snow on the coast line from new york city to new haven on saturday night by monday all snow on the coast line from new haven to new york city but only a few inches of snow..
Winter Weather Advisory new york city
Statement as of 3:29 PM EST on February 08, 2015

...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from midnight
tonight to 6 am EST Tuesday...


* locations...New York City...Long Island...and portions of
northeastern New Jersey.


* Hazard types...freezing rain...snow...and sleet.


* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches...along with
up to a quarter inch of ice.


* Temperatures...falling into the upper 20s.


* Visibilities...1/2sm or less in snow and sleet Monday afternoon.


* Timing...rain will transition over to freezing rain late
tonight and then mix with sleet and snow by late Monday morning.
A transition to mainly snow is expected Monday afternoon.


* Impacts...hazardous travel due to snow and ice accumulations
along with reduced visibilities.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...


A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving.
Quoting 313. hurricanes2018:

Next 6 Hours east haven weather 8:41 PM EST on February 08, 2015
Wintry mix after 11pm. Cloudy with temperatures steady in the mid 20s. No significant snow accumulations through 2:00am.

37 years ago today, New England was digging out of a much worse storm, the Great New England Blizzard of 1978.
Quoting 305. BaltimoreBrian:


France is an exception. Their fertility rate is 2.008 while in the USA it is 1.86


When I was over in France, the government was instituting programs to encourage population growth, including incredible tax breaks for 3 children. That was a few years ago, although I'm sure the programs are still functioning.
Quoting 318. Methurricanes:

37 years ago today, New England was digging out of a much worse storm, the Great New England Blizzard of 1978.


Per Wikipedia - The Great Blizzard of 1978, also known as the White Hurricane,[1] was a historic winter storm that struck the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes from Wednesday, January 25 through Friday, January 27, 1978. The 28.28 inches (958 millibars) barometric pressure measurement recorded in Cleveland, Ohio was the lowest non-tropical atmospheric pressure ever recorded in the mainland United States until the Upper Midwest Storm of October 26, 2010 (28.20" measured at 5:13PM CDT at Bigfork Municipal Airport, Bigfork, MN). The lowest central pressure for the 1978 blizzard was 28.05" (953 mb) measured in southern Ontario a few hours after the aforementioned record in Cleveland.[2] On rare occasions, extra-tropical cyclones with central pressures below 28 inches of mercury or about 95 kPa (950 mb) have been recorded in Wiscasset, Maine (27.9") and Newfoundland (27.76").[3]
Quoting 320. whitewabit:



Per Wikipedia - The Great Blizzard of 1978, also known as the White Hurricane,[1] was a historic winter storm that struck the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes from Wednesday, January 25 through Friday, January 27, 1978. The 28.28 inches (958 millibars) barometric pressure measurement recorded in Cleveland, Ohio was the lowest non-tropical atmospheric pressure ever recorded in the mainland United States until the Upper Midwest Storm of October 26, 2010 (28.20" measured at 5:13PM CDT at Bigfork Municipal Airport, Bigfork, MN). The lowest central pressure for the 1978 blizzard was 28.05" (953 mb) measured in southern Ontario a few hours after the aforementioned record in Cleveland.[2] On rare occasions, extra-tropical cyclones with central pressures below 28 inches of mercury or about 95 kPa (950 mb) have been recorded in Wiscasset, Maine (27.9") and Newfoundland (27.76").[3]

Wrong one
New England Blizzard of 1978
Damage
$520,000,000 (1978 dollars), (USD)
1.88 billion (2010 dollars)

Fatalities
Around 100 killed; 4,500 injured
"The storm's power was made apparent by its sustained hurricane-force winds of approximately 86 mph (138 km/h) with gusts to 111 mph (179 km/h) and the formation of an eye-like structure in the middle."
also from WIkipedia
40 inches of snow fell in Eastern Mass.
Quoting 321. Methurricanes:


Wrong one
New England Blizzard of 1978
Damage
$520,000,000 (1978 dollars), (USD)
1.88 billion (2010 dollars)

Fatalities
Around 100 killed; 4,500 injured



there were a series of blizzard's one after another that winter .. .. it has been the only year that Illinois had several state roads closed for over a week at a time due to snow drifting them completely shut ..
Quoting 322. whitewabit:



there were a series of blizzard's one after another that winter .. .. it has been the only year that Illinois had several state roads closed for over a week at a time due to snow drifting them completely shut ..
The February 5th-7th Blizzard of 1978 was basically a cat 1 hurricane with frostbite that lasted 2 days.
There were at least 3 great blizzards in Jan-Feb 1978. The first was on Jan 19-20, and was the first 20" snowstorm in Boston records (surpassed by the big blizzard 2 1/2 weeks later). The 'white hurricane' of Jan 25-27 1978 in the Ohio valley and eastern great lakes and the 'blizzard of '78' in early February.
Thank you Bob, for your most interesting blog about the history of our understanding of climate change. As a child, I loved to read the oversized book "The World We Live In," published by Time and edited by the editorial staff of Life Magazine. It looks to be an opus of intellectual giants of the time, with the section on the atmosphere being authored and consulted by no less than 29 leaders in the field. It was originally written in 1952, and in our 1955 edition, towards the end of that chapter, the following was written:

"...temperatures have shown an upward trend. This has been particularly true in the last four decades, during which glaciers have been in retreat all around the world. The reasons for this gradual warming of the earth cannot be defined with certainty. One suggested explanation is an increase in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. Along with water vapor and ozone, carbon dioxide helps to trap the earth's heat within the greenhouse of the atmosphere and prevents it from radiating away into space. In the last half century the carbon dioxide ratio in the atmosphere has increased by 10%, a phenomenon which some attribute to expanding industry, pointing out that 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide pour from factory chimneys every year..."

If we had only taken these words to heart back then, where would we be today? Looking at the authors who wrote/reviewed this chapter, I speculate that G. Evelyn Hutchinson, the father of modern ecology, may have penned these words, since he was known to have suspected CO2's role in global warming as early as 1947.

Quoting 324. BaltimoreBrian:

There were at least 3 great blizzards in Jan-Feb 1978. The first was on Jan 19-20, and was the first 20" snowstorm in Boston records (surpassed by the big blizzard 2 1/2 weeks later). The 'white hurricane' of Jan 25-27 1978 in the Ohio valley and eastern great lakes and the 'blizzard of '78' in early February.
Speaking of 1978, Boston needs 4.9 inches to break the 30 day snow record (in only 17 days) from 1978 of 58.8 inches
Quoting 311. BaltimoreBrian:

Just for fun

Claim: Fiddling With Temperature Data Is The Biggest Science Scandal Ever



That was fun!
An update from Seattle...

Today was a nice break from the rain. Enjoyed a nice walk down to a local breakfast spot, followed by the farmers market and historic Ballard.

We received another .7 inches of rain overnight, bringing our total to over 3.3 inches in a little over 4 days. By this time in the month we might have an inch of rain. Unsurprisingly, the Special Weather Statement is still valid. Thankfully, the USGS Antecedent Wetness Index is improving.



I'm looking forward to the return of the ridge on Tuesday!
Quoting auburn:
Mysterious 'Milky Rain' on Cars in the Northwest


Hmm...a little tricky to do an accurate chemical analysis when the sample was collected in a rain gauge that presumably sits outside for weeks or months and presumably doesn't get sterilized very often. I hope someone who cares collected a sample in a way that might lead to an accurate answer. Something like this may be close to the truth however.
Quoting msjayhawk:
Shockwave Flash Plug-in KILLS this page...
We will just add that to the list of the other 37 things that kill this page then.
Quoting Seattleite:
An update from Seattle...

Today was a nice break from the rain. Enjoyed a nice walk down to a local breakfast spot, followed by the farmers market and historic Ballard.

We received another .7 inches of rain overnight, bringing our total to over 3.3 inches in a little over 4 days. By this time in the month we might have an inch of rain. Unsurprisingly, the Special Weather Statement is still valid. Thankfully, the USGS Antecedent Wetness Index is improving.



I'm looking forward to the return of the ridge on Tuesday!
Sounds pretty nice for a February day there. It got to 75 here in SE Alabama but I don't have the Pike Market here, darn it. So far, it seems like the AR millions were watching has been of reasonably manageable proportion. Maybe the ski areas get to profit from the rest of it before the ridge builds in again.
Sunset over DC - February 7th, 2015:

Quoting Qazulight:


Keeps the rest of the Texans from coming up here an ruining the place. ;)

Last year we have several days of negative 20 in the morning, not neg 20 wind chill, negative 20 with a 20 mph wind, in fact, I think we had only a hand full of days where the wind wasn't howling. We also had a whole bunch of days that never got above zero Degrees F.

Frankly I am a little concerned, the ground will not have a snow pack to make it moist for the farmers.

You get used to it, then you really love the summers with days that last forever and evenings that are just glorious.

In just a year, I fell like moving to northern Colorado would be moving way south.

Cheers
Qazulight
You've got a point. I complain a lot about summer heat to keep any more Californians from moving down here too. :-) Up there, extreme cold and snow cover go together so it doesn't get (on average) anywhere near as cold when the ground is almost bare. I suspect the forecast is overdoing the cold a bit although that's only relevant to those of us who don't live in North Dakota. Somewhere around 15 below, it all starts to feel the same.
Quoting 328. Seattleite:

An update from Seattle...

Today was a nice break from the rain. Enjoyed a nice walk down to a local breakfast spot, followed by the farmers market and historic Ballard.

We received another .7 inches of rain overnight, bringing our total to over 3.3 inches in a little over 4 days. By this time in the month we might have an inch of rain. Unsurprisingly, the Special Weather Statement is still valid. Thankfully, the USGS Antecedent Wetness Index is improving.



I'm looking forward to the return of the ridge on Tuesday!

Had to look up Antecedent Wetness. I understand it, but I don't understand the index; how could it be going down during an event. (Edit) - I see the scale, and understand that ".7 inches overnight" is actually a break in the rain. LOL
Also, one of my "Sick-n-twisted" weather fantasies has been to be on Mt. Olympus during one of these events. In full weather gear, of course.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Just for fun

Claim: Fiddling With Temperature Data Is The Biggest Science Scandal Ever

When I first saw the comment about the three thermometers in Paraguay, I thought this was some kind of satire.

Then I found it wasn't.
Quoting oldnewmex:

Had to look up Antecedent Wetness. I understand it, but I don't understand the index; how could it be going down during an event.
Also, one of my "Sick-n-twisted" weather fantasies has been to be on Mt. Olympus during one of these events. In full weather gear, of course.
I believe it has to do with measuring soil saturation. With the break in the rains and not quite as much rain as forecast, the soil hasn't become as saturated, so the index starts to retreat.
325. seasonsandcycles
Thanks. That's a nice post with some historical perspective in it.

Been thinking about this today after reading the blog. What I wrote below is for you and for anyone who wishes something had been done sooner.

The first big push for environmental cleanup came in the 1970s, and, as Bob Henson notes, a lot was done.

Up to 1960 or so, no one would have paid much notice. From the late 40s through the 1950s the U.S was like, omg, the Great Depression and WWII are over. People started getting married and having babies and, something they could not have imagined during the Depression, buying homes of their own. Insert a short war in Korea, then TV, then buying automatic washing machines and cars with fins. The Russians launched the first satellite, Sputnik, into orbit. By the end of the 1950s, a few homes had color TV.

The early 60s brought a different flavor, more hedonistic, with thought that was more "out there"reaching the mainstream. The threat of Nuclear War, hung, as always, in the air when JFK died by assassination in 1963. The world was shocked. So were we as a nation. A national violence other than war had begun.

The year 1965 brought a breaking point, a plot point if you will. Though US military "advisors" had been in Vietnam since the late 1950s and the US had been dropping napalm from the air since at least 1962, most in this country did not realize we were at war prior to 1965. Meanwhile, in San Francisco a movement of young people got started. Fueled by music and drugs, they rebelled. Mostly, they rebelled against the thought of having to be like their parents.

All at once young men were scrambling in every direction to beat the draft or they enlisted in the service as they thought they were duty bound to do. The shock that awaited the draftees and volunteers: warfare in Vietnam differed from any ever seen before. Who, or what, was the enemy?

Back home many in the US wondered the same thing, and the futile, as it turned out, violence continued for years not only in SE Asia but also on the home front with student war protesters slain during protests on campuses where police riot squads guarded university buildings. To go on... the loss of Martin Luther King by assassination ...Bobby Kennedy's assassination ...the My Lai massacre. If you don't know the history of My Lai, look it up and realize a low point had been reached. For a semblence of understanding the Vietnam War, watch the films Platoon, Good Morning Vietnam, Apocalypse Now, Full Metal Jacket, and Coming Home. Forrest Gump, believe it or not, depicts this part of history well. A lot of young people don't understand the schism that divided the U.S after 1965. The violence this period brought ripped the fabric of US society in half. And then a man walked on the Moon. In 1973, Vietnam ended and Richard Nixon's staff went on trial for the Watergate breakin. Later, President Nixon resigned rather than face impeachment.

Okay. So what? All of this is history, yet it's important for those who wish more was done on behalf of the environment prior to the mid-1970s to understand this country had other priorities - just one war or social crisis after another, I guess you could say. And I didn't even mention civil rights for black Americans, the Watts riots, affirmative action or the women's liberation movement, all of which fell into the time period from 1965 to 1975. Well the civil rights movement began earlier. (Add to end) I'm not saying having other priorities was right or wrong, just that is the way it was, the history of those years, and, given that history, it's not surprising nothing much was done to alter pollution in the US till the mid 1970s.

(edited after posting for clarity and typos)
Quoting 336. sar2401:

I believe it has to do with measuring soil saturation. With the break in the rains and not quite as much rain as forecast, the soil hasn't become as saturated, so the index starts to retreat.

I realize that now, and edited my comment. "Break in the rains" is a relative phrase, isn't it?
Of course the GFS 00z has a nice system for the mid-Atlantic next weekend....
Quoting oldnewmex:

I realize that now, and edited my comment. "Break in the rains" is a relative phrase, isn't it?
Well, yeah, but even a couple of hours without rain is a big deal when soil is approaching saturation. That gives some of the water that's starting to lubricated the slip layers a chance to get just below it. Even continuous light rain can be a "break" in the rain after seeing a prolonged period of heavy rain.
Quoting Drakoen:
Of course the GFS 00z has a nice system for the mid-Atlantic next weekend....
As it has for every weekend since, what, about January 3? The Boys in Birmingham, after looking at the four clouds presently over Alabama, are now coming to the conclusion that may have to revise pops down if something big doesn't happen in the next couple of hours. It appears another GFS whopper is coming to an untimely end. I am looking forward to the development of severe thunderstorms in central Florida tomorrow to keep my mind occupied however.
Quoting 341. sar2401:

As it has for every weekend since, what, about January 3? The Boys in Birmingham, after looking at the four clouds presently over Alabama, are now coming to the conclusion that may have to revise pops down if something big doesn't happen in the next couple of hours. It appears another GFS whopper is coming to an untimely end. I am looking forward to the development of severe thunderstorms in central Florida tomorrow to keep my mind occupied however.


Yes, indeed sar. On top of everything as always. We'll know where that system will go on Friday.
In the ice box should it verify.

Thanks BaltimoreBrian common sense would tell you global warming was the biggest hoax ever glad people are catching on to this money making scheme for the wealthy!"Remember the earth is a million degrees hot",ALGORE 2008.Earth was suppose to burn up by 2014and major hurricanes hitting United States was suppose to happen more often.Not a major hurricane has hit in ten years.This prediction was made by the good doc on this site.Other predictions on this site Florida was going to become a desert,global sea ice was to be gone by now.No more winters in Europe and northeast United States.Polar bears to be wiped off face of the earth.Population increasing,then climate gate hit and now more articles about adjusting temperatures to make it look like warming and the lies go on and on.I better go get warm now it's cold outside!
Quoting 344. help4u:

Thanks BaltimoreBrian common sense would tell you global warming was the biggest hoax ever glad people are catching on to this money making scheme for the wealthy!"Remember the earth is a million degrees hot",ALGORE 2008.Earth was suppose to burn up by 2014and major hurricanes hitting United States was suppose to happen more often.Not a major hurricane has hit in ten years.This prediction was made by the good doc on this site.Other predictions on this site Florida was going to become a desert,global sea ice was to be gone by now.No more winters in Europe and northeast United States.Polar bears to be wiped off face of the earth.Population increasing,then climate gate hit and now more articles about adjusting temperatures to make it look like warming and the lies go on and on.I better go get warm now it's cold outside!

That was fun, too!
Quoting 344. help4u:

Thanks BaltimoreBrian common sense would tell you global warming was the biggest hoax ever glad people are catching on to this money making scheme for the wealthy!"Remember the earth is a million degrees hot",ALGORE 2008.Earth was suppose to burn up by 2014and major hurricanes hitting United States was suppose to happen more often.Not a major hurricane has hit in ten years.This prediction was made by the good doc on this site.Other predictions on this site Florida was going to become a desert,global sea ice was to be gone by now.No more winters in Europe and northeast United States.Polar bears to be wiped off face of the earth.Population increasing,then climate gate hit and now more articles about adjusting temperatures to make it look like warming and the lies go on and on.I better go get warm now it's cold outside!


Hmmm, your name is a bit ironic?
This isn't really related to the OP or anything, but I've been ruminating on this for awhile and I think I know why I make more enemies than friends.

I say all kinds of off-color ****. I can't really apologize for that; controversy is part of what makes me... me.. But like, I think it's more how I come off than what actually comes out of my mouth. I mistakenly expect people to know the real me without elaborating on that for them. Oftentimes I'm either going for levity or I don't actually mean to come off as an uncaring dbag, yet I never make that clear to people. That's a fault, and I'm going to start doing everything I can to correct that, including here.

No I'm not apologizing for the off-topic post. I'm not sorry. :)
Quoting 344. help4u:

Thanks BaltimoreBrian common sense would tell you global warming was the biggest hoax ever glad people are catching on to this money making scheme for the wealthy!"Remember the earth is a million degrees hot",ALGORE 2008.Earth was suppose to burn up by 2014and major hurricanes hitting United States was suppose to happen more often.Not a major hurricane has hit in ten years.This prediction was made by the good doc on this site.Other predictions on this site Florida was going to become a desert,global sea ice was to be gone by now.No more winters in Europe and northeast United States.Polar bears to be wiped off face of the earth.Population increasing,then climate gate hit and now more articles about adjusting temperatures to make it look like warming and the lies go on and on.I better go get warm now it's cold outside!


why are you here other then to troll ??
Quoting 347. KoritheMan:

This isn't really related to the OP or anything, but I've been ruminating on this for awhile and I think I know why I make more enemies than friends.

I say all kinds of off-color ****. I can't really apologize for that; controversy is part of what makes me... me.. But like, I think it's more how I come off than what actually comes out of my mouth. I mistakenly expect people to know the real me. Oftentimes I'm either going for levity or I don't actually mean to come off as an uncaring dbag. That's a fault, and I'm going to start doing everything I can to correct that, including here.

No I'm not apologizing for the off-topic post. I'm not sorry. :)


it not that no one likes you its that you have never earned anyone's respect because of your words and actions .. someday when you grow older you might understand ..
Quoting 349. whitewabit:



it not that no one likes you its that you have never earned anyone's respect because of your words and actions .. someday when you grow older you might understand ..


I've earned plenty of people's respect, actually. Some of the best friends I've made in my life have been on this blog.

But I take the "you can't please people" mentality to a very literal extent, maybe to a fault. When most people say they don't care what other people think of them, that's almost always a lie because they're projecting their own insecurities. I don't do that. Again, probably to a fault.

My perspective has shifted around a lot over the last year. I've done a LOT of personal introspection. And I'm trying to make more changes.

But two things I will never apologize for is the above, and being blunt.
Quoting 350. KoritheMan:



I've earned plenty of people's respect, actually. Some of the best friends I've made in my life have been on this blog.

But I take the "you can't please people" mentality to a very literal extent, maybe to a fault. When most people say they don't care what other people think of them, that's almost always a lie because they're projecting their own insecurities. I don't do that. Again, probably to a fault.

My perspective has shifted around a lot over the last year. I've done a LOT of personal introspection. And I'm trying to make more changes.

But two things I will never apologize for is the above, and being blunt.


like I said .. someday when you grow older you might understand .. not talking about best friends ..
Quoting 351. whitewabit:



like I said .. someday when you grow older you might understand .. not talking about best friends ..


You're kind of losing me here, then. If you can clarify a little more, maybe we can cordially debate, and hopefully even learn something from each other. :)

Because honestly, it sounds to me like you're suggesting I should water down what I say. I feel like a lot of what I say - people WANT to say, but are afraid to. Maybe I'm wrong.
Quoting 352. KoritheMan:



You're kind of losing me here, then. If you can clarify a little more, maybe we can cordially debate, and hopefully even learn something from each other. :)

Because honestly, it sounds to me like you're suggesting I should water down what I say. I feel like a lot of what I say - people WANT to say, but are afraid to. Maybe I'm wrong.


respect is earned through ones actions over time .. have your past actions on this blog warranted respect from all the other members here ??
Quoting 352. KoritheMan:



You're kind of losing me here, then. If you can clarify a little more, maybe we can cordially debate, and hopefully even learn something from each other. :)

Because honestly, it sounds to me like you're suggesting I should water down what I say. I feel like a lot of what I say - people WANT to say, but are afraid to. Maybe I'm wrong.


No I would not tell anyone how they should act .. that is up to the individual themselves how they think they should react to any given situation ..
Quoting 353. whitewabit:



respect is earned through ones actions over time .. have your past actions on this blog warranted respect from all the other members here ??


Certainly not ALL members, that's a bit much even for someone much nicer than me.

I'm sensing you feel otherwise, though. Care to elucidate what you think my flaws are?
Quoting 353. whitewabit:



respect is earned through ones actions over time .. have your past actions on this blog warranted respect from all the other members here ??


All? No. Neither have mine, neither have yours. Kori is one of the most respectable members on this blog, a large part from his attitude that can come off as abrasive, but he's not the only one like that, just younger than the rest.

To Kori: I don't see why you're apologizing, you haven't done anything wrong.
Quoting 355. KoritheMan:



Certainly not ALL members, that's a bit much even for someone much nicer than me.

I'm sensing you feel otherwise, though. Care to elucidate what you think my flaws are?


I don't know you and certainly wouldn't know what your faults are if you have any .. I don't make an impression of someone by a few words they write in a blog ..
Quoting 356. Astrometeor:



All? No. Neither have mine, neither have yours. Kori is one of the most respectable members on this blog, a large part from his attitude that can come off as abrasive, but he's not the only one like that, just younger than the rest.

To Kori: I don't see why you're apologizing, you haven't done anything wrong.


I'm not apologizing, really. I'm just trying to project a clear image of what I'm trying to say.

The off-color stuff I say can come off the wrong way. I'm trying to make sure it doesn't.

Also, younger members? I'm old compared to people like Cody and Isaac, and even you. :P
Quoting 357. whitewabit:



I don't know you and certainly wouldn't know what your faults are if you have any .. I don't make an impression of someone by a few words they write in a blog ..


I wouldn't have ever made friends over here (props to Astro; he's one of my best) if I didn't judge personal merit based on content posted here.

Contrary to popular belief, most people don't mask their true selves online. Selectively omit stuff, yes, but you can still generally tell the character a person has from what they say.
Today was a really bad day on campus, had a death. Autopsy is tomorrow...guess is domestic violence, suspect is in jail on $1.5 Million bond.

Sigh...this winter has sucked...

Quoting 358. KoritheMan:



I'm not apologizing, really. I'm just trying to project a clear image of what I'm trying to say.

The off-color stuff I say can come off the wrong way. I'm trying to make sure it doesn't.

Also, younger members? I'm old compared to people like Cody and Isaac, and even you. :P


You're 23 (right?). I'm talking older like Naga (God, hope he isn't online, he's not that old either), Neapolitan, Xyrus, Grothar, beell, etc. Your personality is sort of like Neapolitan when it comes to setting facts straight.
Quoting 361. Astrometeor:



You're 23 (right?). I'm talking older like Naga (God, hope he isn't online, he's not that old either), Neapolitan, Xyrus, Grothar, beell, etc. Your personality is sort of like Neapolitan when it comes to setting facts straight.


24 in April, but yeah 23 for now.

Sometimes ridicule is the best weapon. I won't apologize for using it in situations where I feel it's warranted. And on this blog it sometimes is.
Quoting 360. Astrometeor:

Today was a really bad day on campus, had a death. Autopsy is tomorrow...guess is domestic violence, suspect is in jail on $1.5 Million bond.

Sigh...this winter has sucked...




That's scary stuff.
Quoting 359. KoritheMan:



I wouldn't have ever made friends over here (props to Astro; he's one of my best) if I didn't judge personal merit based on content posted here.

Contrary to popular belief, most people don't mask their true selves online. Selectively omit stuff, yes, but you can still generally tell the character a person has from what they say.


Actually I have found in an atmosphere where someone is unknown to all others .. that some act in a way opposite of their usual personalities .. or they will have another identity that no one knows its them if they are know by others .. it is happening here at WU all the time if you are aware of it .. its easy to hide their true identity so they became some one other then who they are .. there are some here that have more then one identity !!
Quoting 364. whitewabit:



Actually I have found in an atmosphere where someone is unknown to all others .. that some act in a way opposite of their usual personalities .. or they will have another identity that no one knows its them if they are know by others .. it is happening here at WU all the time if you are aware of it .. its easy to hide their true identity so they became some one other then who they are .. there are some here that have more then one identity !!


Some =/= all.

In fact, I'd actually say you'd be hard-pressed to find statistical evidence to back up your claim that most people selectively mask themselves because of Internet anonymity.

EDIT: The best argument is this absurd idea is simple Occam's Razor. It's the same reason I have no aversion to meeting people online in person. Chances are they aren't going to rape you. It takes far too much time for people to put on a front to everyone they meet, much less take it to extreme cases where they aren't even the same gender or something.
Kori needs a Mardi Gras visit to cool his "Jet's" I think.

Yer welcome to stay her anyday this week, esp Weds and Thurs as we have 4 great Parades those 2 nights right close here

Quoting 366. Patrap:

Kori needs a Mardi Gras visit to cool his oversized libido I think.




lmao. I'm actually going back to the Quarter in July for MechaCon 2015. I can easily do it there. ;)

On a more serious note, Pat, I won't be in Louisiana next year because I'll be enlisting. I've been studying for my GED harder than I ever have, and this time I actually have evidence to justify saying that now. I REALLY want to make that meet up with you happen while I still have a chance. I won't bite. ;)
A great decision that you will never regret. I'm very pleased and proud to hear that.

Yer welcome anytime here Bro.

Quoting 368. Patrap:



So will you meet with me in July? Pleeease? :)
Sure, I can take you to some shady Bars and some out of the way spots off the Tourist trap trails.

I do it for lotsa wunderbloggers who have visited us here thru the years. Over 30 have now.
Don't you live like right by the Quarter, Pat? If it's okay, me and my brother can easily just walk there to see you when we visit in July. I'd like that. I've known you for awhile.
Im 5 minutes from the Vieux Carre and have many Bar and club owner friends as my Son plays House of Blues regularly
Quoting 365. KoritheMan:



Some =/= all.

In fact, I'd actually say you'd be hard-pressed to find statistical evidence to back up your claim that most people selectively mask themselves because of Internet anonymity.

EDIT: The best argument is this absurd idea is simple Occam's Razor. It's the same reason I have no aversion to meeting people online in person. Chances are they aren't going to rape you. It takes far too much time for people to put on a front to everyone they meet, much less take it to extreme cases where they aren't even the same gender or something.


I didn't say most people those are your words not mine .. I said there are some .. probably around 5% but no more then that .. most people are who they say they are.. here at WU its probably close to 4-5 % of the bloggers have more then one handle .. and most of them are not know by both ..
I'm off to my own wunderland here as the Brain is shifting into pre REM mode.

G'night

Quoting 372. Patrap:

Im 5 minutes from the Vieux Carre and have many Bar and club owner friends as my Son plays House of Blues regularly


Pat are the pickpockets still bad down on Bourbon Street ?? They were 20 years ago when we were there ..
Quoting 373. whitewabit:



I didn't say most people those are your words not mine .. I said there are some .. probably around 5% but no more then that .. most people are who they say they are.. here at WU its probably close to 4-5 % of the bloggers have more then one handle .. and most of them are not know by both ..


Ah yeah I can dig that prolly.

Peace, bro.


North Queensland hit by worst flooding in 30 years, with more rain forecast
Residents of far north Queensland are cleaning up after floodwaters swept through on the weekend following more than 300mm of rain
The Guardian, Australian Associated Press, Monday 9 February 2015 03.22 GMT
Residents in far north Queensland are mopping up after the worst flooding in more than 30 years, and they have been warned to expect further heavy rain by the weekend.
Houses and businesses were inundated on Sunday after more than 300mm of rain fell in parts of the region. ...


---------------------------

While Western Europe is under the reign of strong high "Gabriela", in Eastern Europe, especially the Mediterranean with Turkey, a trough of cold air and a strong (snow) storm with a lot of precipation is in the making:


Source.




Accumulated precipitation until Wednesday (GFS/Tropical Tidbits).

Good morning and a nice Monday everybody!
Major snowstorms in B.C. prompt climate-change worries

Warm weather and rain linked to the Pineapple Express weather system is forcing Mount Washington Alpine Resort on Vancouver Island to shut down its winter operations as of Monday, a rare situation that comes as industry operators fear the impact of climate change.

While too little snow put the brakes on ski season in one region of the province, Kitimat Village – a First Nations settlement near the town of Kitimat in northern British Columbia – was reeling from a major snowstorm that compelled Haisla First Nation to order the evacuation of the community’s 800 residents on Sunday. Kitimat and Terrace have received nearly two metres of snow this week from that same Pineapple Express system, which knocked out power for days and required at least one person to be airlifted to hospital.


Link
Interesting legal development Link
Good Morning from southern Europe.
I just read this; an article on the news which may be of interest to some people in which it is claimed that climate warming figures are somewhat false.
I have no real way of checking this but I will copy a paragraph from it below and add the link.
Faced with melting glaciers and recorded sea level rises the article seems to be somewhat misleading from an evidence point of view.
Here's the paragraph etc.

"Of much more serious significance, however, is the way this wholesale manipulation of the official temperature record %u2013 for reasons GHCN and Giss have never plausibly explained %u2013 has become the real elephant in the room of the greatest and most costly scare the world has known. This really does begin to look like one of the greatest scientific scandals of all time."

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/techandscience/the- fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-scie nce-scandal-ever/ar-AA98eVG?ocid=DELLDHP

Link
377. barbamz

The community of Malanda received some of the heaviest falls, with more than 450 millimetres recorded in the region since Saturday.

Link
Quoting 380. PlazaRed:

Good Morning from southern Europe.
I just read this; an article on the news which may be of interest to some people in which it is claimed that climate warming figures are somewhat false.
I have no real way of checking this but I will copy a paragraph from it below and add the link.
Faced with melting glaciers and recorded sea level rises the article seems to be somewhat misleading from an evidence point of view.
Here's the paragraph etc.

"Of much more serious significance, however, is the way this wholesale manipulation of the official temperature record %u2013 for reasons GHCN and Giss have never plausibly explained %u2013 has become the real elephant in the room of the greatest and most costly scare the world has known. This really does begin to look like one of the greatest scientific scandals of all time."

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/techandscience/the- fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-scie nce-scandal-ever/ar-AA98eVG?ocid=DELLDHP

Link
Fake skeptics are *always* whining that data showing warming have been manipulated. That's all they have left. It certainly would make a more persuasive argument, however, if glaciers and ice caps weren't melting, if seas were not rising, if floods and droughts and storms were not increasing in severity and frequency, if numerous species weren't being forced to migrate like never before... People like Paul Homewood would have you believe that, despite the laws of physics and chemistry and common sense, the 4 million tons of CO2 we dig out of the earth and inject into the atmosphere every single hour of every single day somehow, magically and unexplainably, has absolutely no effect whatsoever on that atmosphere. I wish it were so, but, alas, that isn't reality.
383. vis0
http://youtu.be/8rYX5O1eAD8 (732x202)

Quoting 380. PlazaRed:

Good Morning from southern Europe.
I just read this; an article on the news which may be of interest to some people in which it is claimed that climate warming figures are somewhat false.
I have no real way of checking this but I will copy a paragraph from it below and add the link.
Faced with melting glaciers and recorded sea level rises the article seems to be somewhat misleading from an evidence point of view.
Here's the paragraph etc.

"Of much more serious significance, however, is the way this wholesale manipulation of the official temperature record %u2013 for reasons GHCN and Giss have never plausibly explained %u2013 has become the real elephant in the room of the greatest and most costly scare the world has known. This really does begin to look like one of the greatest scientific scandals of all time."

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/techandscience/the- fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-scie nce-scandal-ever/ar-AA98eVG?ocid=DELLDHP

Link


Booker wrote a similar article in the Telegraph on the 7th. The following day (yesterday), there was an incredible influx of climate change denier trolls posting comments at a rate of several posts a second. Just the usual brain dead drivel, including insisting Al Gore be tried for sedition. Last time I looked, there was over 14,000 comments.

It seems to have been organised by the sinister forces behind Fox news. A 'poll' later appeared on Booker's article, run by Fox. I find it deeply disturbing that a) the Telegraph allows this, and continues to employ Booker b) that the propagandist activities of Fox have become so flagrant c) that so many people are being used (presumably at least some being paid) d) that there aren't laws against this sort of thing.

Link
Quoting 311. BaltimoreBrian:

Just for fun

Claim: Fiddling With Temperature Data Is The Biggest Science Scandal Ever



Kevin Cowtan Debunks Christopher Booker's Temperature Conspiracy Theory

In The Telegraph, Christopher Booker accused climate scientists of falsifying the global surface temperature data, claiming trends have been "falsified" through a "wholesale corruption of proper science." Booker's argument focuses on adjustments made to raw data from temperature stations in Paraguay. In the video below, Kevin Cowtan examines the data and explains why the adjustments in question are clearly justified and necessary, revealing the baselessness of Booker's conspiracy theory.

The video features a prototype tool for investigating the global temperature record. This tool will be made available with the upcoming MOOC, Making Sense of Climate Science Denial, where we will interactively debunk myths regarding surface temperature records.

Quoting 384. yonzabam:



Booker wrote a similar article in the Telegraph on the 7th. The following day (yesterday), there was an incredible influx of climate change denier trolls posting comments at a rate of several posts a second. Just the usual brain dead drivel, including insisting Al Gore be tried for sedition. Last time I looked, there was over 14,000 comments.

It seems to have been organised by the sinister forces behind Fox news. A 'poll' later appeared on Booker's article, run by Fox. I find it deeply disturbing that a) the Telegraph allows this, and continues to employ Booker b) that the propagandist activities of Fox have become so flagrant c) that so many people are being used (presumably at least some being paid) d) that there aren't laws against this sort of thing.

Link

Is it possible for the Telegraph & Fox to be sued for libel?
Quoting 349. whitewabit:



it not that no one likes you its that you have never earned anyone's respect because of your words and actions .. someday when you grow older you might understand ..

You've earned my respect Kori.
Quoting 361. Astrometeor:



You're 23 (right?). I'm talking older like Naga (God, hope he isn't online, he's not that old either), Neapolitan, Xyrus, Grothar, beell, etc. Your personality is sort of like Neapolitan when it comes to setting facts straight.


I go to sleep and wake up to this, for shame! :)
#349 - whitewabit

This seems overly harsh, IMHO. And it seems you are including everyone here in your statement, which is not true. I'm rather fond of Kori.
by 10 yrs or so we will know if this global warming is real or not. funny for el nino i only see about a fifty yrs worth of data. hardly worth getting averages
Quoting 343. Tornado6042008X:

In the ice box should it verify.


VERY COLD WEATHER
Quoting hurricanes2018:
VERY COLD WEATHER


Currently 17 degrees in Hartford (heat wave). That's about 25-30 degrees warmer than what's forecast for this weekend.
Too cold for humans.
Based on the GFS, the coldest air of the season will be moving into the S.E. this weekend into next week.
I have my doubts it will get this cold in my area, but time will tell.
396. beell
Quoting 390. Naga5000:



I go to sleep and wake up to this, for shame! :)


Well, assuming the list is chronological-youngest to oldest, you should feel pretty good. Not to mention, Gro should be last on any list.

:)
Quoting 392. islander101010:

by 10 yrs or so we will know if this global warming is real or not. funny for el nino i only see about a fifty yrs worth of data. hardly worth getting averages


10 years based on what? The history of our knowledge of CO2 induced warming goes back about 200 years, recent measurements have confirmed exactly what we knew previously. Why would 210 years be more valid than 200? I see these statements a lot, and I have yet to see any legitimate justification for them. Seems pretty arbitrary to me, or at the very least, kicking the can down the road as to not need to deal with the realities now.
Quoting Naga5000:


I go to sleep and wake up to this, for shame! :)
Looks like I got tired and passed out on the keyboard at just the right time last night. :-) I'm sure there's something in sociology about this. There comes a time when you go from being among the youngest among your friends and coworkers to becoming one of the oldest. It happens almost overnight. You go from the in crowd to the denture crowd. People suddenly start whispering when you walk into the room because they are engaged in some ribald conversation your "shouldn't" hear. People start asking you what something was like in the "old days". Congratulations, Naga. You have now passed into the ...Geezer Zone!


Moisture beginning to increase in the Gulf of Mexico.
snow and ice in east haven right now
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Based on the GFS, the coldest air of the season will be moving into the S.E. this weekend into next week.
I have my doubts it will get this cold in my area, but time will tell.
Either the GFS is underestimating this cold wave or it's being hyped more than usual by the media. I can never exactly tell what the projected low on that map is for me since I'm between two numbers but it looks like between 26 and 31. My lows for the past week were 23 and 24. The lowest this winter has been 13. Maybe the coldest air is really coming in Sunday morning. If between 26 and 31 is really the extent of this cold wave, it won't be bad here. 31 down by you would be a lot chillier than this winter so far but I can't imagine why Eufaula and Ft. Meyers would be close to the same lows.
Quoting 391. LAbonbon:

#349 - whitewabit

This seems overly harsh, IMHO. And it seems you are including everyone here in your statement, which is not true. I'm rather fond of Kori.
Let's sue him for "libel" :)
Winter Storm Marcus: Northeast Snowstorm Continues Through Monday (FORECAST)
Published Feb 9 2015 07:23 AM EST

Winter Storm Marcus will continue to spread snow and some ice from the eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast as the new work week kicks off. Marcus is the fourth named winter storm in the U.S. in the last two weeks.

Snow Timing
Monday's Forecast
Enlarge
Monday's Forecast
Monday: Snow continues in southern New England, Upstate and central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. Strong winds will increase in coastal New England, contributing to blowing/drifting snow, reduced visibility, at perhaps some minor coastal flooding in areas vulnerable after Winter Storms Juno and Linus. Any freezing rain will change over to snow or sleet during the day or by evening around the NYC metro area. Rain may change to freezing rain in parts of eastern and southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Some ice accumulation on untreated roads is expected.

Monday night: Snow will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast, lingering longest near the I-95 corridor from Boston to New York City. An area of light sleet or freezing rain may persist overnight in parts of southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and perhaps northern Maryland.

Tuesday: We can't rule out some flurries, sleet, or freezing drizzle lingering in parts of southern New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland early in the morning. All wintry precipitation should end in the Northeast by mid-morning.

Late in the week, bitter cold air will engulf the Northeast region. This air mass could be the coldest of year
Rain developing
Quoting 398. sar2401:

Looks like I got tired and passed out on the keyboard at just the right time last night. :-) I'm sure there's something in sociology about this. There comes a time when you go from being among the youngest among your friends and coworkers to becoming one of the oldest. It happens almost overnight. You go from the in crowd to the denture crowd. People suddenly start whispering when you walk into the room because they are engaged in some ribald conversation your "shouldn't" hear. People start asking you what something was like in the "old days". Congratulations, Naga. You have now passed into the ...Geezer Zone!


Oh great, I'll tell my wife. I'm too old to do yard work, I'll say. This won't go over well, if I don't come back, you can figure out what happened.
HURRICANE SCORECARD 2015

If anyone here is ready feel free to tell me your prediction for this hurricane season for this year...
I'll list you up.. today is my day off

Grothar is the most recent member whose prediction is listed as #11
Quoting 405. Abacosurf:

Rain developing


Wow, for once in what seems like forever, the storms actually seem to be organizing towards SW FL. That is great news for them if this trend continues today.
I see the models continue with the tricks and painting another lie for the Mid-atlantic next week XD.Well it won't matter much anyway as i will be somewhere with snow (welll I take that back as it could mean horrid conditions up on the mountain so we'll be stuck up here)
Quoting 398. sar2401:

Looks like I got tired and passed out on the keyboard at just the right time last night. :-) I'm sure there's something in sociology about this. There comes a time when you go from being among the youngest among your friends and coworkers to becoming one of the oldest. It happens almost overnight. You go from the in crowd to the denture crowd. People suddenly start whispering when you walk into the room because they are engaged in some ribald conversation your "shouldn't" hear. People start asking you what something was like in the "old days". Congratulations, Naga. You have now passed into the ...Geezer Zone!

Inside every geezer is a teenager wondering what the h3ll happened!
What?
A clipper tries to dive through the region during the second half of Saturday and, depending on its exact track, could deliver a period of snow. We’ll offer more details on this possibility as it draws closer. Confidence: Medium

Looks like its time to prepare for awful drives.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Is it possible for the Telegraph & Fox to be sued for libel?
Good morning, Bonnie. You can sue anyone for anything. Winning and recovering are another matter. In the US, there are two standards for actionable libel. The first is by a public figure like Al Gore. The second is by someone like a climate scientist who, while he may be known with the profession, is not well know as a public figure. In the first instance, you have to accuse the target of something like shooting his mother in the lobby of a public building. In the second, the standard is much lower. You can't defame a person's scientific reputation or work but you are allowed to skeptical. In all cases, what was written must be clearly false, since truth is a defense against libel. The dividing line is proving the writer set out to write something defamatory. That's one of the reasons that people like Booker always have some kind of graph or article to point to about why data is being falsified. You'll also notice he doesn't accuse anyone by name of these deeds, just attributes it to a conspiracy of some type. I'm no lawyer but I wouldn't spend my money to attempt to win such a case. Canada and the UK have much different libel laws and, in some cases, it's easier to win a judgement, although awards are so low you generally won't even recover your legal fees.
Quoting PaulSweet:

Inside every geezer is a teenager wondering what the h3ll happened!
So true. I have a 30 year old brain that somehow was spirited away in the middle of the night and transplanted into this 69 year old guy's body. :-)
Quoting 412. washingtonian115:

What?
A clipper tries to dive through the region during the second half of Saturday and, depending on its exact track, could deliver a period of snow. We’ll offer more details on this possibility as it draws closer. Confidence: Medium

Looks like its time to prepare for awful drives.


here we go in the northeast the next snow storm!


this snow storm today for boston 12 to 18 inches and a new storm of thursday with more snow!!


wow 977MB LOW!
Koch brothers own our politicians. Pumped in some 100 million in the 2014 cycle for Republicans. First thing the new congress pushes is for the Keystone pipeline to get done come hell or high water. Guess who owns the largest parcel of oil sands, some 1.1 million acres, in Canada. The Koch brothers; sure this is just coincidence. Scott Walker, who cut 2.6 billion from education and now 300 million from the UW, is gutting environmental safeguards. He is bought and paid for by the Kochs. Refining dirty tar sand oil adds more C02 to the air than burning regular oil. With the Republicans back in control of both houses the ostrich has her head back in the hand in regards to AGW. With the Koch brothers and their pacts planning to pay 900 million for the next election cycle, we truly have lost our democracy to moneyed interests and big business. We have been manipulated by mass media into becoming tame, lead me anywhere sheep who refuse to seek truth. When are we going to wake up?
Looks like it will be cold enough. But will it be forced far enough south to share some love with the Carolinas???? Stay tuned...

Quoting 412. washingtonian115:

What?
A clipper tries to dive through the region during the second half of Saturday and, depending on its exact track, could deliver a period of snow. We’ll offer more details on this possibility as it draws closer. Confidence: Medium

Looks like its time to prepare for awful drives.
Quoting 413. sar2401:

Good morning, Bonnie. You can sue anyone for anything. Winning and recovering are another matter. In the US, there are two standards for actionable libel. The first is by a public figure like Al Gore. The second is by someone like a climate scientist who, while he may be known with the profession, is not well know as a public figure. In the first instance, you have to accuse the target of something like shooting his mother in the lobby of a public building. In the second, the standard is much lower. You can't defame a person's scientific reputation or work but you are allowed to skeptical. In all cases, what was written must be clearly false, since truth is a defense against libel. The dividing line is proving the writer set out to write something defamatory. That's one of the reasons that people like Booker always have some kind of graph or article to point to about why data is being falsified. You'll also notice he doesn't accuse anyone by name of these deeds, just attributes it to a conspiracy of some type. I'm no lawyer but I wouldn't spend my money to attempt to win such a case. Canada and the UK have much different libel laws and, in some cases, it's easier to win a judgement, although awards are so low you generally won't even recover your legal fees.

I didn't see the post about the Canadian decision until after I posted that, actually. Happy to see individual climate scientists getting some recourse.

Class action libel suit? Is that even possible? With as many agencies, different governments, and scientists involved, there has to be a way to definitively respond. But then again, I don't like the idea of taxpayers having to foot the bill to respond to such nonsense...

Would love to see a response like David Cameron's regarding Fox's Emerson...'clearly a complete idiot'. I know, it wouldn't solve anything, but really, how does one respond to gross untruths?
Quoting 419. DeepSeaRising:

Koch brothers own our politicians. Pumped in some 100 million in the 2014 cycle for Republicans. First thing the new congress pushes is for the Keystone pipeline to get done come hell or high water. Guess who owns the largest parcel of oil sands, some 1.1 million acres, in Canada. The Koch brothers; sure this is just coincidence. Scott Walker, who cut 2.6 billion from education and now 300 million from the UW, is gutting environmental safeguards. He is bought and paid for by the Kochs. Refining dirty tar sand oil adds more C02 to the air than burning regular oil. With the Republicans back in control of both houses the ostrich has her head back in the hand in regards to AGW. With the Koch brothers and their pacts planning to pay 900 million for the next election cycle, we truly have lost our democracy to moneyed interests and big business. We have been manipulated by mass media into becoming tame, lead me anywhere sheep who refuse to seek truth. When are we going to wake up?

UW?
Quoting 387. LAbonbon:


Is it possible for the Telegraph & Fox to be sued for libel?



Yes, and win in Canada

Good to see that Dr Andrew Weaver has won his court case against the National Post (h/t Anonymous). As Carol Linnett at DeSmogCanada writes:
The ruling names Terence Corcoran, editor of the Financial Post, Peter Foster, a columnist at the National Post, Kevin Libin, a journalist that contributes to the Financial Post and National Post publisher Gordon Fisher.


Here in the US, Michael Mann has filed a defamation suit against National Review, Mark Steyn, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and Rand Simberg. The suit is still in the courts.

I finally finished reading through this blog post and going through all the links provided. Haven't made it through the attached book yet, but I wanted to comment before a new blog is posted.

Honestly, and quite unexpectedly, I think this may be my favorite blog post I've read on this site. The inclusion of President Johnson's 1965 message to Congress, the 1958 TV Special "The Unchained Goddess", Weart's book in its entirety, and the presidential advisory committee report made this a truly well-referenced and 'meaty' blog.

The historical aspect of AGW, and it's highlighting in popular media and by the executive branch over five decades ago demonstrate that this problem has been acknowledged for over half a century.

Thank you, Mr. Henson!
Quoting 412. washingtonian115:

What?
A clipper tries to dive through the region during the second half of Saturday and, depending on its exact track, could deliver a period of snow. We%u2019ll offer more details on this possibility as it draws closer. Confidence: Medium

Looks like its time to prepare for awful drives.

NASA's GEOS-5 is a little faster with it.. Looks cold enough through most of NC even for some snow.. It eventually bottoms at 976mb off the NE..
Quoting 396. beell:



Well, assuming the list is chronological-youngest to oldest, you should feel pretty good. Not to mention, Gro should be last on any list.

:)


LOL, I was just trying to think up of names. Not sure how I forgot sar, I think I was thinking of the main AGW crowd too much, then tossed beell in for good measure. Good thing I didn't toss Pat in, he was still awake.

Quoting 395. Sfloridacat5:

Based on the GFS, the coldest air of the season will be moving into the S.E. this weekend into next week.
I have my doubts it will get this cold in my area, but time will tell.



That's a really shallow cold wave, low 20s in TN? I saw 4 degrees back when I was still on Christmas break. Low 20s is like typical cold.
428. jpsb
Quoting 382. Neapolitan:

Fake skeptics are *always* whining that data showing warming have been manipulated. That's all they have left. It certainly would make a more persuasive argument, however, if glaciers and ice caps weren't melting





Quoting 361. Astrometeor:



You're 23 (right?). I'm talking older like Naga (God, hope he isn't online, he's not that old either), Neapolitan, Xyrus, Grothar, beell, etc. Your personality is sort of like Neapolitan when it comes to setting facts straight.


23? Pssh. Barely getting the training wheels of his bike. I bet you he'll tell you he's 23 and half "#thankyouverymuch". :D

My brain certainly doesn't think I'm very old. It keeps trying to convince me that I graduated from college a couple of years ago instead of a couple of decades ago. It seems like after school/college your brain somehow loses it's ability to track time. You pass out from your 21st birthday party and you wake up 20 years later and you have a job, you're married, and have a tweenage kid.

Time flies.

Good Morning wunderblogger's


GOP avoids showdown over EPA climate change rules
By ELANA SCHOR 2/9/15 5:41 AM EST


Republicans’ aggressive energy agenda has so far conspicuously sidestepped one of their biggest campaign-trail targets: the climate change rules from President Barack Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency.
The House GOP plans to steer clear of a showdown over the greenhouse gas rules in a broad energy package that it will unveil this week, raising questions about whether Republicans are grasping for a workable plan to stop the carbon dioxide regulations that EPA will issue later this year.

In the Senate, GOP leaders avoided a fight over Obama’s climate change rules during January’s long debate over Keystone XL pipeline.
And Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), whose panel is in charge of EPA funding, has vowed to push a new energy bill that’s “not a messaging” exercise, a comment that suggests she won’t pick a political fight over climate change just yet — though she also has additional leverage over EPA given her leading role in writing the agency’s spending bill.


Quoting 418. hurricanes2018:



wow 977MB LOW!
BOSTON WITH HEAVY SNOW ON THURSDAY
432. bwi
Quoting 422. LAbonbon:


UW?


University of Wisconsin. There was a fairly hilarious-if-it-weren't-so-sad item in the Walker budget that cut the words "search for truth" from the University's mission statement.
Here's a article from the Washington Post, and, no, it wasn't an "error."
Quoting 405. Abacosurf:

Rain developing


This was originally expected to be only a 30% pop and only 0.01-0.05 QPF at most just a few days back due to a lack of moisture return expected. However, models did a 180 degree turn yesterday and showed much deeper moisture arriving instead and thus much more widespread rain with some being heavy.

There should be more than one round, the first is with the deep moisture return and some weak upper level energy moving in from the gulf now. The second should arrive later today with the actual cold front, the second round should involve a bit stronger upper support, so a few strong thunderstorms will be possible.

As of now though, looks just like another beneficial rain maker, doesn't appear that anything severe will be happening.
Typhoon Higos becomes the strongest typhoon by winds of season, 100 mph right now. I never saw a category 2 typhoon before May. :o hahaha I follow storms since 2008.
A comment on the respect discussion here last night. Seems like at least two schools of thought exist.
1. You gotta earn respect.
2. Everyone deserves respect, until and unless someone does something to prove otherwise.

Also, when you can't see someone's body language, facial expression and intonation, as is the case on the net, it's difficult to pinpoint an attitude unless the words used resort to name-calling and deliberate attempts to destroy another's character, that sort of thing. A different viewpoint well-expressed is not "abrasive" except to those with low tolerance for someone who thinks differently than they do.
Quoting LAbonbon:

I didn't see the post about the Canadian decision until after I posted that, actually. Happy to see individual climate scientists getting some recourse.

Class action libel suit? Is that even possible? With as many agencies, different governments, and scientists involved, there has to be a way to definitively respond. But then again, I don't like the idea of taxpayers having to foot the bill to respond to such nonsense...

Would love to see a response like David Cameron's regarding Fox's Emerson...'clearly a complete idiot'. I know, it wouldn't solve anything, but really, how does one respond to gross untruths?
No, you have to show you were the one damaged by libel, so the idea of a class action libel suit is not going to float. David Cameron, being currently in office, has a wide latitude about what he says. Emerson's comments about Birmingham were clearly and provably wrong. Emerson has since admitted they were and apologized. A supposed terrorism "expert" who doesn't know what it's actually like in a major British city could charitably be called a "complete idiot" with no consequences. Booker is another case. He attempts to shore up his argument about data falsification using material from others that believe the same, but some of them do have credentials. He's careful not call any single individual that's not a public figure dishonest or a liar. You and I might think that he's an idiot but that doesn't make him guilty of libel. Booker has been writing for the Telegraph for 25 years, and most of his columns make one question his sanity, but you can't recover damages against someone for being nuts as long as they have a legal defense for being nuts. :-)


Huge plume of moisture heading towards the Tampa Bay area.
Quoting 382. Neapolitan:

Fake skeptics are *always* whining that data showing warming have been manipulated. That's all they have left. It certainly would make a more persuasive argument, however, if glaciers and ice caps weren't melting, if seas were not rising, if floods and droughts and storms were not increasing in severity and frequency, if numerous species weren't being forced to migrate like never before... People like Paul Homewood would have you believe that, despite the laws of physics and chemistry and common sense, the 4 million tons of CO2 we dig out of the earth and inject into the atmosphere every single hour of every single day somehow, magically and unexplainably, has absolutely no effect whatsoever on that atmosphere. I wish it were so, but, alas, that isn't reality.



A persons "belief" as you often state, has NO bearing on CO2's ability to absorb infrared radiation, no matter how many "badly" animated Polar images one post as well.

: )
439. bwi
Quoting 382. Neapolitan:

Fake skeptics are *always* whining that data showing warming have been manipulated. That's all they have left. It certainly would make a more persuasive argument, however, if glaciers and ice caps weren't melting, if seas were not rising, if floods and droughts and storms were not increasing in severity and frequency, if numerous species weren't being forced to migrate like never before... People like Paul Homewood would have you believe that, despite the laws of physics and chemistry and common sense, the 4 million tons of CO2 we dig out of the earth and inject into the atmosphere every single hour of every single day somehow, magically and unexplainably, has absolutely no effect whatsoever on that atmosphere. I wish it were so, but, alas, that isn't reality.


A couple years ago, a prominent skeptic with real credentials got some funding (including from the Koch Foundation!) to do a very thorough double-check of the temperature data and came up with the same findings as the scientific consensus, of course. You never hear the deniers mention this study, though, which came up with exactly the opposite result they wanted!

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/jul/29/cl imate-change-sceptics-change-mind

The Earth's land has warmed by 1.5C over the past 250 years and "humans are almost entirely the cause", according to a scientific study set up to address climate change sceptics' concerns about whether human-induced global warming is occurring.

Prof Richard Muller, a physicist and climate change sceptic who founded the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (Best) project, said he was surprised by the findings. "We were not expecting this, but as scientists, it is our duty to let the evidence change our minds." He added that he now considers himself a "converted sceptic" and his views had undergone a "total turnaround" in a short space of time.

"Our results show that the average temperature of the Earth's land has risen by 2.5F over the past 250 years, including an increase of 1.5 degrees over the most recent 50 years. Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases," Muller wrote in an opinion piece for the New York Times.
Updated my blog with NW damage reports from in the night, new flooding YouTubes & such.

This is like 9 days off but thought I'd give Southern CA some hope..
# 436 - sar2401

"you can't recover damages against someone for being nuts as long as they have a legal defense for being nuts"

This line was worth a re-post. Classic!
Seems someone is talking from "experience"


: P
Quoting 431. hurricanes2018:

BOSTON WITH HEAVY SNOW ON THURSDAY
Boston broke its 30 day snowfall record, and will probably break its 40 day snowfall record (from 1947) today,5 more inches, it took 17 days.
10% mo Water Vapor available today, than 50 years ago matters greatly.

This is not my Fathers, atmosphere.


It's Earth 2.0

Quoting Jedkins01:


This was originally expected to be only a 30% pop and only 0.01-0.05 QPF at most just a few days back due to a lack of moisture return expected. However, models did a 180 degree turn yesterday and showed much deeper moisture arriving instead and thus much more widespread rain with some being heavy.

There should be more than one round, the first is with the deep moisture return and some weak upper level energy moving in from the gulf now. The second should arrive later today with the actual cold front, the second round should involve a bit stronger upper support, so a few strong thunderstorms will be possible.

As of now though, looks just like another beneficial rain maker, doesn't appear that anything severe will be happening.
Strangely, all the convection now is in a line of storms north of Columbus (GA) and headed NE toward Atlanta. A couple of cells are pretty strong and beginning to approach severe levels. This was not predicted. There's nothing on the lightning detector for Florida right now.
Stupid campus wi-fi. It doesn't feel like working today. Anyway, it was 73 yesterday and it's 34 right now. What a difference a day makes!
Quoting 445. sar2401:

Strangely, all the convection now is in a line of storms north of Columbus (GA) and headed NE toward Atlanta. A couple of cells are pretty strong and beginning to approach severe levels. This was not predicted. There's nothing on the lightning detector for Florida right now.


Tampa Bay could be in for over an inch of rain depending on how this batch of storms moving NE onto land now holds together. We weren't even supposed to get any rain until the front moved through.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1017 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SEEN IN SATELLITE OVER THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE LOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING
WITH BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF IT. RADAR HAS CONTINUED
TO SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS AREA
CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MORNING TBW SOUNDING
INDICATING LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS APPROACHING THIS SHOULD BE ABLE OVERCOME THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK OR GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. ALSO WITH THE DECENT DYNAMICS
COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES. MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE LOW THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST FOR THESE CHANGES.


someone needs to stop all this snow!!
Quoting MaxWeather:
HURRICANE SCORECARD 2015

If anyone here is ready feel free to tell me your prediction for this hurricane season for this year...
I'll list you up.. today is my day off

Grothar is the most recent member whose prediction is listed as #11
14 named storms, 6 hurricanes,3 major hurricanes.
Quoting 436. sar2401:

No, you have to show you were the one damaged by libel, so the idea of a class action libel suit is not going to float. David Cameron, being currently in office, has a wide latitude about what he says. Emerson's comments about Birmingham were clearly and provably wrong. Emerson has since admitted they were and apologized. A supposed terrorism "expert" who doesn't know what it's actually like in a major British city could charitably be called a "complete idiot" with no consequences. Booker is another case. He attempts to shore up his argument about data falsification using material from others that believe the same, but some of them do have credentials. He's careful not call any single individual that's not a public figure dishonest or a liar. You and I might think that he's an idiot but that doesn't make him guilty of libel. Booker has been writing for the Telegraph for 25 years, and most of his columns make one question his sanity, but you can't recover damages against someone for being nuts as long as they have a legal defense for being nuts. :-)


The Telegraph has had to retract and and apologize for Booker's writings in the past

In December 2009, Christopher Booker and Richard North had published an article in The Sunday Telegraph in which they questioned whether Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was using his position for personal gain,[27][28][29][30] with a follow-up Telegraph article in January 2010.[31] On 21 August 2010,The Daily Telegraph issued an apology,[28] and withdrew the December article from their website[29] having reportedly paid legal fees running into six figures.[29


Tampa Bay could be in for over an inch of rain depending on how this batch of storms moving NW onto land now holds together. We weren't even supposed to get any rain until the front moved through.

IT CANNOT!!!!!!!....the WPC QPF said you would only receive less than half an inch.....and that's gospel!!!!!!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 452. ricderr:

Tampa Bay could be in for over an inch of rain depending on how this batch of storms moving NW onto land now holds together. We weren't even supposed to get any rain until the front moved through.

IT CANNOT!!!!!!!....the WPC QPF said you would only receive less than half an inch.....and that's gospel!!!!!!!


LOL. As myself and others have said, the WPC QPF consistently underestimates the amount of rainfall that will occur in FL. It did seem to put a bullseye on the Tampa area in yesterday's runs, but still only showed about a half inch of rain. So, it seems to do well in predicting patterns, but not amounts. But, this must be a completely invalid theory, right?
Good Morning. Here is the big picture for Conus today; lots of snow propagating toward the NE from the Great Lakes this morning on the winter mosaics:

Heavy snow will impact portions of New York State and New England as the new week begins. Freezing rain will spread from western Pennsylvania to Long Island, with rain for the mid-Atlantic states. Freezing rain is also possible in the northern Plains, with heavy snow in the northern Rocky Mountains. Stormy weather will begin to exit California. 
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Tampa Bay could be in for over an inch of rain depending on how this batch of storms moving NE onto land now holds together. We weren't even supposed to get any rain until the front moved through.
I'm closer to the cold front and I guess these thunderstorms must have developed from some prefrontal destabilization. Unfortunately, this batch is going to just miss me. The soundings in Birmingham this morning weren't very impressive so I'm surprised to see this organized band develop. Still no lightning showing up anywhere near Florida but you might get something out of it if you can get some similar destabilization. I suspect an inch is probably on the high side but I'd sure take it here. It doesn't look like it's going to happen though.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1023 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY, ENTERING FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT NORTH FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SSW
TO THE NNE. CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ARE MITIGATING FACTORS. CORE OF BEST MIDLEVEL WINDS, H7
WINDS ABOUT 40KTS, AND RESULTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR, ARE FOCUSED
ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI-DADE THROUGH SOUTHERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY LATER TODAY. THERE HAS BEEN MORE INSOLATION AND LESS
SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH
THIS AM, SO PERHAPS THIS IS WHERE A STRONGER STORM COULD FORM
LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. SPC CALIBRATED TSTORM GUIDANCE LINES
UP, WITH THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH THERE`S
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WIND GUST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FINE
TUNED POPS AND LOWERED MAX T BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.

458. vis0
i think i remember some here talking of this. in case not here's a good read (URLs still up, but figured it might go down/taken down in the near future so here are the pgs. in .jpg). Placed at the end of Dr. Masters as not to go off subject during an active blog.

No not an Ark Latex boom. The "ArkLaTex"  name created for where Arkansas, Louisiana & Texas boundaries meet.

http://s20.postimg.org/nw7c3p97h/SAR2401_read_Arklatex_Boom_Pg1.jpg
http://s20.postimg.org/5hwszpwwt/SAR2401_read_Arklatex_Boom_Pg2.jpg
459. vis0

Quoting 442. Patrap:

Seems someone is talking from "experience"


: P
did sum1 call me?
460. vis0
In'joy don't D'stroy
http://youtu.be/JKV7jnK_0Ss(1652x876)