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Carbon Dioxide Bidding Farewell to 400-ppm Benchmark

By: Bob Henson 5:18 PM GMT on November 20, 2015

On an otherwise unremarkable day last week--November 11, 2015 (noted mainly for being Veterans Day in the U.S.)--a crucial milestone in global climate was quietly transcended. The daily average concentration of carbon dioxide in the air that day at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory was 399.68 parts per million. On November 12 it rose to 401.64 ppm, and it’s quite possible that we’ll never see another day in our lives with the daily Mauna Loa CO2 reading below 400 ppm. Greenhouse gases have been building in our atmosphere for more than a century, so this news doesn’t come as a shock so much as a reminder of what our continued use of fossil fuels is doing to the atmosphere. The data also serve as a prelude to the upcoming United Nations climate talks in Paris, which face some unexpected obstacles (see below) as a result of the city’s terrorist attacks of November 13.


Figure 1. Hourly and daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory for the week of November 12-18, 2015. Image credit: Scripps/The Keeling Curve.

If it seems like you heard the news about the atmosphere reaching 400 ppm quite a while ago, you can attribute your deja vu to the seasonal cycle. Figure 2 (below) shows what’s been going on. The 400-ppm mark was first reached in May 2013--but only for a few days, during the annual peak of atmospheric CO2. Along with the year-on-year rise due to fossil-fuel use, CO2 ebbs and flows in the atmosphere each year as vegetation grows and dies back in the Northern Hemisphere (where the majority of the world’s plant life is located). In 2014, the daily Mauna Loa readings stayed above 400 ppm for more than three months. This year they rose above 400 ppm even longer, again dipping below 400 ppm in August before climbing back above the benchmark this month.

Ordinarily, we might expect one more northern summer with CO2 values below 400 ppm, but El Niño could prevent that. A strong El Niño event, like the one now under way, tends to produce drought in some of the world’s most heavily forested areas, such as Indonesia. Averaged across the globe, this temporarily reduces the total amount of CO2 soaked up by Earth’s vegetation. In addition, the large fires common in drought-stricken areas pour even more CO2 into the air. Based on this prospect, Ralph Keeling, who directs the CO2 measurement program at Mauna Loa for the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, made a fairly bold prediction on October 21: “By sometime in the next month or two, CO2 will again rise above 400 ppm. Will daily values at Mauna Loa ever fall below 400 ppm again in our lifetimes? I’m prepared to project that they won’t, making the current values the last time the Mauna Loa record will produce numbers in the 300s.”


Figure 2. CO2 measurements from Mauna Loa Observatory for (top to bottom) the past six months, the past two years, and since the observatory was established in 1958. The final panel shows the Mauna Loa record juxtaposed with CO2 readings deduced from air trapped in ice cores. The ice-core evidence shows that carbon dioxide waxed and waned with a number of ice ages, but the current values near 400 ppm are far greater than any peaks observed in at least the last 800,000 years--and probably much further back than that. Image credit: Scripps/The Keeling Curve.


What next?
Figure 1 shows that the hourly readings at Mauna Loa can vary quite a bit. It’s possible we’ll see more days this month with hourly readings dipping below 400 ppm, as they did on November 18. However, even these hourly readings should remain firmly above 400 ppm within a few weeks. If Keeling’s prediction is accurate, daily readings may stay above 400 ppm in 2015 and for many years thereafter. It’s also still possible that a few hours or even several days might manage to dip just below 400 ppm in mid-2016.

There are other CO2 measurement facilities around the world, although the Mauna Loa record is the one most commonly cited, with its high quality, pristine location, and longevity (Keeling’s father, Charles David Keeling, began regular measurements there in 1958). Different measuring sites will see the 400-ppm mark in their rear-view mirrors at slightly different times, due to local atmospheric variations, but there is no doubt where the global atmosphere is headed. I asked Ralph Keeling on Wednesday for his latest thoughts.

“It's too early to be 100% certain, but I agree that it's starting to look like we are already over 400 ppm for this year, with the last daily and weekly values below 400 ppm occurring earlier this month,” Keeling said. “It also looks like the November monthly average will also be above 400 ppm.”

Climate-change deniers and contrarians typically look beyond CO2 measurements when crafting their talking points, but a few misunderstandings about the role of carbon dioxide still crop up--many of them skillfully rebutted by the website skepticalscience.com. “A possible misconception about the Mauna Loa CO2 record is that the overall increase is influenced by emissions from the volcano,” Keeling told me. “In fact, the volcanic effects are very small and are easily filtered out, like static on a radio signal. Dozens of stations around the world show essentially identical long-term trends, including a record from the South Pole also going back to the 1950s.  The CO2 at these stations might be a little higher or lower than Mauna Loa in a particular season or averaged over the calendar year. But the upward trends are all pretty similar. The rise is therefore clearly a global phenomenon.”

What it means for the Paris climate talks
The 400-ppm news comes just as Earth is experiencing a heat wave fueled by the long-term rise in greenhouse gases and goosed by El Niño. NOAA announced on Wednesday that global temperatures in October 2015 showed the largest departure from the long-term average for any month going back to 1880. The UK Met Office now predicts that global temperature in 2015 will likely end up at least 1°C warmer than the preindustrial average. This would put our planet halfway to the 2°C warming that’s long been viewed by many scientists and policy experts as a level that significantly raises the odds of major climate disruption (although there is nothing magic about 2°C; a smaller rise could still have serious consequences). A brief video from the journal Nature, released on Thursday, serves as a quick guide to the origin and significance of the 2°C goal.

All of these happenings underscore the importance of the two-week-long meeting in Paris that begins on November 30. This is COP21, the 21st annual Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was signed in 1992 and ratified by the United States and all other UN members. There has been an unprecedented level of cooperation among the world’s leading carbon-emitting nations in the lead-up to COP21, which raises the odds that a workable agreement for carbon reduction just might be achievable. In contrast to the Kyoto Protocol, which failed to gain support from the world’s two largest carbon emitters--the United States and China--it’s expected that any deal arising from Paris will hinge on voluntary commitments (dubbed “intended nationally determined contributions”, or INDCs) that have already been submitted by more than 160 nations representing more than 90% of global emissions. In an upcoming post, we’ll take a closer look at what to expect and what to watch for as COP21 unfolds. WU climate blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has already filed a series of posts that lay out important context ahead of the Paris meeting. I attended the ill-fated Copenhagen meeting in 2009 (COP15) and came away profoundly discouraged at the lack of progress there. This time around, I am cautiously optimistic that a truly global deal will be struck, although I’m not confident that it will be enough to prevent 2°C of warming.


Figure 3. One of the major protest marches held during the Copenhagen climate summit in December 2009. Image credit: Bob Henson.

In wake of attacks, a global climate march gets new attention
Several experts involved with the upcoming UN meeting have speculated that global leaders now have even more incentive to make the talks a success in the wake of the deadly November 13 attacks in Paris. At the same time, the French government announced on Wednesday that massive climate marches planned for Paris on November 29 and December 12 would not be allowed, due to the heightened state of alert following the deadly attacks of November 13. Organizers led by Avaaz.org and 350.org have responded by intensifying their efforts toward a Global Climate March, scheduled for the weekend of November 28-29. More than 2000 events are on tap in towns and cities around the world. You can see what’s happening near you by using the interactive tool at this Guardian article.

Bob Henson

Climate Change Politics Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 495. Jedkins01:




It was a complete bust for West Central Florida where the heaviest rain was forecast. My parents only got 0.09 since yesterday. Weather is weird sometimes.
I just don't get how weather works in Florida. The same front that finally went through here yesterday is now going through Florida. I got three periods of drizzle lasting, in total, about five minutes. Not even enough to tip the bucket. The same front goes through central Florida and it's flash flood city. The PWAT here was 1.8" and the high was 80, so it's not like it was cold or dry before the front came through. I guess it's all that additional moisture available from the Gulf, but I'd sure hate to be a forecaster trying to figure this out down there.

Speaking of forecasters, the amount of cold air advection here is way less than what was originally predicted. The high was supposed to be 51. It's a very pleasant 60 presently. I was supposed to see 20-25 mph winds. Current wind is 6 mph, with a high gust of 15 mph, and that occurred right after the frontal passage. The low last night was 48 compared to a predicted low of 41. The predicted low for tomorrow morning has, over the last two days, risen from 26 to 30 now. I really hate to say this, but I'm not sure the air that gets to south Florida will be anywhere near as cool as what has been predicted.
Quoting 480. annabatic:

And further in the same article mentioned below:

The natural difficulties of imagining the human role in global warming have been exacerbated by an intensive campaign of brainwashing by the oil companies, coal-burning utilities and extractive industries.

"There's been a deluge of misinformation that confuses the issue in the mind of the public," said Pollack.

In other words, it's not just that American's are hearing about climate change too infrequently; when they do hear about it, the message is contaminated.

There is a long history of corporations and their paid scientists of waging public relations wars designed to camouflage the causal roles of their products in specific environmental problems and human health issues, said Pollack.

Agro-chemical companies denied the scientific link between pesticides like DDT and bird, fish and animal deformities. The tobacco industry questioned scientific studies that linked smoking and second hand smoke to lung cancer. The coal industry questioned the link between burning coal and acid rain.

For the past 25 years, the fossil fuel industries and their representatives have been trying to suggest that there is no scientific consensus on global warming.

In his talk, Pollack called them "manufacturers and distributors of uncertainty."

You could add industry fighting the removal of lead from paint and gasoline.
Here in SC they have cancelled the freeze warning

Quoting 501. sar2401:

I just don't get how weather works in Florida. The same front that finally went through here yesterday is now going through Florida. I got three periods of drizzle lasting, in total, about five minutes. Not even enough to tip the bucket. The same front goes through central Florida and it's flash flood city. The PWAT here was 1.8" and the high was 80, so it's not like it was cold or dry before the front came through. I guess it's all that additional moisture available from the Gulf, but I'd sure hate to be a forecaster trying to figure this out down there.

Speaking of forecasters, the amount of cold air advection here is way less than what was originally predicted. The high was supposed to be 51. It's a very pleasant 60 presently. I was supposed to see 20-25 mph winds. Current wind is 6 mph, with a high gust of 15 mph, and that occurred right after the frontal passage. The low last night was 48 compared to a predicted low of 41. The predicted low for tomorrow morning has, over the last two days, risen from 26 to 30 now. I really hate to say this, but I'm not sure the air that gets to south Florida will be anywhere near as cool as what has been predicted.
Quoting 496. sar2401:

Okay, but, if I use voice commands instead typing on a real keyboard, does that reduce my carbon print? Or, is typing on a virtual keyboard better? Do I exhale more CO2 if I'm moving my fingers around typing or if a computer could just read my brain waves?

I have a lot more important questions about the internet and my print, but the cats need water. All that squalling and carrying on just because they might be a little dehydrated is driving me nuts. I really have to go now...


Is that the same amount of CO2 if you were typing during a leap year or non-leap year. Do the cats jump on the keyboard once in a while or often? Would you then have to give up cats as well to keep the keyboard so it doesn't produce more CO2? Also do you use a mouse with a mouse pad or one of those laptop style ones? What is the carbon footprint of the mouse?

On a serious note I am not liking the GFS here. Good thing it is pretty far out so I am not filling the bathtub with water yet.
Quoting 494. JohnLonergan:





There was 'https' in the original url, removing the s allows the image to appear.
Woohoo! A real E-Ticket ride!

(Right now, there are young people reading this going "What the heck is an E-Ticket ride? He's nuts". Disregarding the question of being nuts, there really was an E-Ticket. I purchased many of them when I lived in L.A and was stuck entertaining a continuous stream of relatives and other moochers that visited.)
Yeah... there were never enough E-tickets in the ticket package.
~1.75" here in Winter Park, for which I am extremely grateful, since we had less than 1" from Sept 30-Nov 19. It had gotten a bit warmer here today than I expected. I thought it would be one of those overcast days in the 60s, but it made it up to 76-78F in the area. Now down into the lower 70s. It feels great outside.
Quoting 507. HurrMichaelOrl:

~1.75" here in Winter Park, for which I am extremely grateful, since we had less than 1" from Sept 30-Nov 19. It had gotten a bit warmer here today than I expected. I thought it would be one of those overcast days in the 60s, but it made it up to 76-78F in the area. Now down into the lower 70s. It feels great outside.


Lot of 3" to 5" reports across East Central Florida mostly from pop up thunderstorms yesterday.
Quoting 504. wartsttocs:



Is that the same amount of CO2 if you were typing during a leap year or non-leap year. Do the cats jump on the keyboard once in a while or often? Would you then have to give up cats as well to keep the keyboard so it doesn't produce more CO2? Also do you use a mouse with a mouse pad or one of those laptop style ones? What is the carbon footprint of the mouse?

On a serious note I am not liking the GFS here. Good thing it is pretty far out so I am not filling the bathtub with water yet.

True story. I bought Karen a mouse for her computer that really looked like a mouse. The cats never bothered the computer until that mouse came along. Fritz, the Maine coon cat and chief hunter, wouldn't stop trying to attack it. It got to the point where he finally broke it. So, moral of the story is, getting a mouse that looks like a mouse may lead to a big increase in cat CO2. :-)

I don't know about the nor'easter thing the GFS has glommed onto. It's coming from a low which, for no apparent reason, suddenly deepens over West Virginia, and then whips it right over Vis0's apartment as a 994 mb land-n-sea-o-cane. All this happens in a period of 12 hours. One thing I've noticed with all the models over the years is they get kind of loopy near the end of tropical storm season. They get confused about the next hurricane versus the next blizzard, so they start wildly creating lows until they start settling down about the second week of December. Other than debating how much global warming is caused by Google searches compared to cat breathing, there's not much else to do but post model runs. Might as well pick out the one that look the most menacing and create a little excitement. :-)
Quoting 508. StormTrackerScott:



Lot of 3" to 5" reports across East Central Florida mostly from pop up thunderstorms yesterday.

Hey Scott,

We missed most of the heaviest thunderstorm activity (didn't actually hear thunder here), but made out better than a lot of areas. This rain event was clearly very hit or miss. Do you think we will crack the 50F mark finally tonight or tomorrow night?
Quoting 503. HaoleboySurfEC:

Here in SC they have cancelled the freeze warning


The freeze warning here is still on, and it will probably verify for areas from about Montgomery north. I think it's going to be off the mark further south. Up to 61 now under perfectly clear skies. It's breezy, but not windy, and the breeze doesn't have that cold air advection "bite", if you know what I mean. It just doesn't feel like other cool days that have preceded a freeze. If the winds go to calm tonight, it may actually get below freezing, but I'm thinking it's more likely it won't. I hope so, since that means a lot less lugging plants to the greenhouse.
TULSA - NEW RECORD MOST CONSECUTIVE NOT-BELOW-FREEZING DAYS: The record most consecutive days in which the temperature in Tulsa OK never went below freezing of 258 such days was set on November 20, 2015. The previous record of 257 such days was set in 1985.
Quoting 510. HurrMichaelOrl:


Hey Scott,

We missed most of the heaviest thunderstorm activity (didn't actually hear thunder here), but made out better than a lot of areas. This rain event was clearly very hit or miss. Do you think we will crack the 50F mark finally tonight or tomorrow night?


I think 48 here NW of orlando. .49" here yesterday but over in lake Mary reports of 1.5" to 2" with 3" to 6" from northern Lake County extending into Volusia again mostly from Summer time pop up convection yesterday the front itself was a bust rainfall wise.
Quoting 495. Jedkins01:




It was a complete bust for West Central Florida where the heaviest rain was forecast. My parents only got 0.09 since yesterday. Weather is weird sometimes.

It's worth mentioning that Daytona Beach also had 3.72 in just 1 hour... Rain totals like that are crazy any time of year, but in November?

Melbourne's radar estimates are so terribly underdone, the estimate for Daytona Beach is only between 1 and 1.5 inches, which is only about 1/4 of what they actually had... I really wish NWS radar site pages would start showing dual pole estimates which not only are much higher in resolution but also highly accurate. I've talked to NWS forecasters and they aren't sure why either.


Near 17-92 in Deland there was nearly 6" of rain yesterday 4" of that fell in 1 hour.
Quoting 506. aquak9:

Yeah... there were never enough E-tickets in the ticket package.
No, there never were, but I ended up with a whole drawer full of A and B tickets, since they were only good on rides like the Mother Goose kiddie carousel. I'm sure there were probably about 5 million other people like me in the L.A. area, so A and B tickets are probably not worth anything. I'll bet E tickets are worth something though.

EDIT: I just checked on ebay. A mint ticket book from the 60's is going for $125!!! Rats!!!! I should have just bought a bunch of books, told my relatives to shove off, and saved them. I'd have enough money now to afford you shipping some veggies to me instead of growing my own. :-)
Quoting 509. sar2401:

Fritz, the Maine coon cat and chief hunter

I don't know about the nor'easter thing the GFS has glommed onto.


A male Maine Coon is the best cat in my opinion. Super affectionate alpha males that kick butt and take names. I haven't had a cat since I got a dog that is cat aggressive several years ago.
The ECMWF seems to be picking up on something ten days out as well, but I can never find a good link to post for the model.
517. beell
Quoting 509. sar2401:

...I don't know about the nor'easter thing the GFS has glommed onto. It's coming from a low which, for no apparent reason, suddenly deepens over West Virginia,


Some small contribution (but not insignificant) deepening is common as a surface low drops off the crest of the Appalachians (vorticity stretching). The increased baroclinicity near the coast and the left exit region of the upper jet in that model could contribute to deepening east of the mountains.
Quoting 491. BayFog:


Exxon says it's happening. They said so nearly 4 decades ago. They should know.
Exxon paid lots of money to scientist to forecast the future of energy. One of the reports about solar power turned out to be amazingly accurate. Exxon was starting to invest in photovoltaics in the mid-80's. The report was supposed to show how profitable it would be. Instead, the prediction was solar wouldn't be cheap enough to be profitable until 2012-2013. Instead of increasing their investment into what would be a money losing proposition, Exxon dumped all their solar power subsidiaries by 1990. The report nailed the timing almost exactly. You can be sure Exxon will be jumping back on the solar bandwagon again soon. I have the feeling there are those on the inside of companies like Exxon that know a lot more about the future than anyone who will be showing up in Paris in December.
Quoting 514. StormTrackerScott:



Near 17-92 in Deland there was nearly 6" of rain yesterday 4" of that fell in 1 hour.


My mother lives in Palm Coast and she said her neighborhood had some street flooding and there was torrential rain for a good portion of the day.

As Jedkins noted, we had hardly any rain in the Tampa Bay area. I had a trace yesterday and 0.16" today. After such a crazy, rainy summer, the last time I had a day with rain over an inch was Sept. 6th.
Quoting 517. beell:



Some small contribution (but not insignificant) deepening is common as a surface low drops off the crest of the Appalachians (vorticity stretching). The increased baroclinicity near the coast and the left exit region of the upper jet in that model could all could contribute to deepening east of the mountains.
Yes, it could be. The evolution of the low doesn't look like one that usually leads to that kind of RI but, since we're talking about a model that's 10 days out, it's all just hoots and giggles anyway.
Euro also still see's something in the Northeast,1st week of dec..........................
Exxon did pretty good with their modeling from 30+ years ago as well:
Courtesy of no1der:


Although he may have to update his red line on the .85C number once this year is finished which makes their model even more impressive.
523. beell
Quoting 520. sar2401:

Yes, it could be. The evolution of the low doesn't look like one that usually leads to that kind of RI but, since we're talking about a model that's 10 days out, it's all just hoots and giggles anyway.


True! Just chiming-in w/a short list of apparent reasons in the GFS.
Quoting 516. wartsttocs:



A male Maine Coon is the best cat in my opinion. Super affectionate alpha males that kick butt and take names. I haven't had a cat since I got a dog that is cat aggressive several years ago.
The ECMWF seems to be picking up on something ten days out as well, but I can never find a good link to post for the model.
Fritz loves chasing, cornering, and playing with any kind of prey, until he finally kills it. We have these giant Palmetto bugs down here, and he loves to chase those. I've had to take them away from him after a while though, since he really likes to torture them to death. I don't know why cats, and especially Maine coons, like doing that, since sometimes the prey escapes. I'm lucky that Radar Dog loves cats. He spends half his day grooming them to the point they're covered in dog spit. He should have been a mother.

You can get the ECMWF at Tropical Tidbits. Just click on Global on the model page and select ECMWF. It's about the best presentation, with the most options, of the ECMWF we can get for free. Lots of other models there too, so it's easy to cross check one against the other. The ECMWF is showing a low of about the same intensity and location at 240 hours as what the GFS is predicting at 240 hours as well. The fact both of them are making a similar prediction is something to keep an eye on. If they both still look the same at 7 days out, that's when I start to sit up and pay attention.

Quoting 519. tampabaymatt:



My mother lives in Palm Coast and she said her neighborhood had some street flooding and there was torrential rain for a good portion of the day.

As Jedkins noted, we had hardly any rain in the Tampa Bay area. I had a trace yesterday and 0.16" today. After such a crazy, rainy summer, the last time I had a day with rain over an inch was Sept. 6th.


It's weird how Mother Nature evens out the rainfall amounts over a course of a year.
looks like dec 2nd a somewhat strong coastal storm off the nyc coastline..................
Quoting 523. beell:



True! Just chiming-in w/a short list of apparent reasons in the GFS.
Understood. Since the GFS and ECMWF are both making a similar prediction, it's a little less hoots and giggles than a normal 240 hour model run. Wouldn't be the first time that the Northeast got whacked from a low coming off the Appalachians in the first week of December.
Quoting 523. beell:



True! Just chiming-in w/a short list of apparent reasons in the GFS.
we must remember the Euro is also hinting at a storm up there in the same time frame.
Quoting 528. LargoFl:

we must remember the Euro is also hinting at a storm up there in the same time frame.
Quoting 525. StormTrackerScott:



It's weird how Mother Nature evens out the rainfall amounts over a course of a year.


Not necessarily, Dallas Texas has had over 50 inches of rain year to date, which is nearly double the yearly average there.
Quoting 522. wartsttocs:

Exxon did pretty good with their modeling from 30+ years ago as well:
Courtesy of no1der:


Although he may have to update his red line on the .85C number once this year is finished which makes their model even more impressive.
"As Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson told investors in May, the company isn't investing in renewable businesses. "We choose not to lose money on purpose," he said." Exxon is spending lots of money for research on everything from biofuel to fuel cells to CO2 capture. The one thing they specialize in is getting on the train right before it leaves the station, not sitting around waiting for the engine to be hooked up. Keep an eye on what Exxon is spending on research and you'll have a pretty good idea where energy in the world is going to be headed in the future.
Quoting 519. tampabaymatt:



My mother lives in Palm Coast and she said her neighborhood had some street flooding and there was torrential rain for a good portion of the day.

As Jedkins noted, we had hardly any rain in the Tampa Bay area. I had a trace yesterday and 0.16" today. After such a crazy, rainy summer, the last time I had a day with rain over an inch was Sept. 6th.



We kept getting robbed by every rain event imaginable here in Tallahassee up until November. I hadn't recorded a single 1 inch event here in Tallahassee since moving back in August, and total rain from Mid August through October here was barely over 2 inches. During this period, we had 3-4 major rain events that were expected to bring major rain totals of 2-3 inches, none of which amounted to any more than 0.10-0.25 each. All of the sudden after the odds being against us here over and over again with severe drought, we've had over 8.5 inches this month and and at least 2 events of 3 inches+ in 24 hours and 3 1 inch+ days...
November is usually the driest month of the year here, so as weird as it is, I'm glad.
Quoting 499. ACSeattle:


But, but, but....this is supposed to be a democracy! That means we get to vote on the truth!


"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -Isaac Asimov
Quoting 495. Jedkins01:




It was a complete bust for West Central Florida where the heaviest rain was forecast. My parents only got 0.09 since yesterday. Weather is weird sometimes.

It's worth mentioning that Daytona Beach also had 3.72 in just 1 hour... Rain totals like that are crazy any time of year, but in November?

Melbourne's radar estimates are so terribly underdone, the estimate for Daytona Beach is only between 1 and 1.5 inches, which is only about 1/4 of what they actually had... I really wish NWS radar site pages would start showing dual pole estimates which not only are much higher in resolution but also highly accurate. I've talked to NWS forecasters and they aren't sure why either.


I respect you Jed but have to disagree with you here. The post in 430 (which is a dynamic image versus static and may make me look a fool at any time once the site updates) shows a swath of 2-4" across the Daytona area unless my eyes are deceiving me. Seemed a summerlike distribution as you eluded to. Feast for some, famine for others!

Looking forward to the CAA and coolest temps of the season here. If I'm not "awake" come 6am tomorrow it won't take long when I open the door to take out the pooch!
Yes I know what you mean. Once the sun popped out, the temp here shot up 5F. 58F here now. On those days with the "bite" the sun doesn't have much effect. It does today. The cold air above does not seem to be mixing down to ground level. Going to give me wonderful ocean conditions in the morning. Problem is not much swell running unless you are up toward the OBX.

Quoting 511. sar2401:

The freeze warning here is still on, and it will probably verify for areas from about Montgomery north. I think it's going to be off the mark further south. Up to 61 now under perfectly clear skies. It's breezy, but not windy, and the breeze doesn't have that cold air advection "bite", if you know what I mean. It just doesn't feel like other cool days that have preceded a freeze. If the winds go to calm tonight, it may actually get below freezing, but I'm thinking it's more likely it won't. I hope so, since that means a lot less lugging plants to the greenhouse.
Quoting 501. sar2401:

I just don't get how weather works in Florida. The same front that finally went through here yesterday is now going through Florida. I got three periods of drizzle lasting, in total, about five minutes. Not even enough to tip the bucket. The same front goes through central Florida and it's flash flood city. The PWAT here was 1.8" and the high was 80, so it's not like it was cold or dry before the front came through. I guess it's all that additional moisture available from the Gulf, but I'd sure hate to be a forecaster trying to figure this out down there.

Speaking of forecasters, the amount of cold air advection here is way less than what was originally predicted. The high was supposed to be 51. It's a very pleasant 60 presently. I was supposed to see 20-25 mph winds. Current wind is 6 mph, with a high gust of 15 mph, and that occurred right after the frontal passage. The low last night was 48 compared to a predicted low of 41. The predicted low for tomorrow morning has, over the last two days, risen from 26 to 30 now. I really hate to say this, but I'm not sure the air that gets to south Florida will be anywhere near as cool as what has been predicted.


Yeah so far this event hasn't been as impressive as expected, and it saddens me because I was looking forward to it, the forecast high here was 62 and we're 68 right now. All temps area wide are 4-6 degrees above their forecast. Oh well at least it's still cooler and drier overall.

However is a possibility though that it will still get as cold as expected for tomorrow morning and again for highs tomorrow and lows tomorrow night. It's possible the timing of the coldest air is the only forecast error and the coldest air is yet to arrive based on upstream data. It's too early to say, we should be able to gauge things better by late tonight.
Quoting 534. StAugustineFL:



I respect you Jed but have to disagree with you here. The post in 430 (which is a dynamic image versus static and may make me look a fool at any time once the site updates) shows a swath of 2-4" across the Daytona area unless my eyes are deceiving me. Seemed a summerlike distribution as you eluded to. Feast for some, famine for others!

Looking forward to the CAA and coolest temps of the season here. If I'm not "awake" come 6am tomorrow it won't take long when I open the door to take out the pooch!


Yes but look again at comment 430, that's the Tampa radar estimates that are more accurate in that image, not Melbourne like I was referring to. Radar estimates overall actually usually are better at a distance because of the radar beam at an angle with the Earth from a distance. Although radar estimates can also be overdone at a distance for stratiform precip, so it depends on the type of precip and hydrometeor size and phase(liquid or solid).

Overall standard radar estimates for convection are too low with a moist atmosphere nearer to the radar and a bit more accurate farther away. Their estimates for stratiform precip tends to easier to estimate for convection, although as I said, it too can be too high far away from the radar.

Also individual radar sites vary in terms of traditional storm total accuracy. For example, Tampa, Jacksonville, Keywest, Northwest FL, and Mobile aren't too bad except for with tropical cyclone events. But Melbourne, Miami, and Tallahassee have notoriously underdone estimates, especially with convection in very moist environments.


And yeah the convection was sort of summery yesterday, appreciate the cool weather while it lasts!
Perfect weather for these! To bad I can't eat them
Hey Scott

What's your take on the El Nino now that it has broken some impressive records. You think it will continue to strengthen?
Quoting 534. StAugustineFL:



I respect you Jed but have to disagree with you here. The post in 430 (which is a dynamic image versus static and may make me look a fool at any time once the site updates) shows a swath of 2-4" across the Daytona area unless my eyes are deceiving me. Seemed a summerlike distribution as you eluded to. Feast for some, famine for others!

Looking forward to the CAA and coolest temps of the season here. If I'm not "awake" come 6am tomorrow it won't take long when I open the door to take out the pooch!


Stationary front overhead with dewpoints 70 to 75 with temps 80 to 85 was enough to fire off the East Coast sea breeze front which popped off thunderstorms with slow moving areas of heavy rains
Quoting 539. Trouper415:

Hey Scott

What's your take on the El Nino now that it has broken some impressive records. You think it will continue to strengthen?


I think its peaking now so we may see a max of 3.1C for nino 3.4. Effects from this should become more prevalent over the coming weeks.
Had 4.25" of rain in Melbourne. Most of it fell in an hour.
El Niño, explained: Why this year's could be one of the strongest on record






Link
Quoting 542. Skyepony:

Had 4.25" of rain in Melbourne. Most of it fell in an hour.


Hi Skye, a sign of whats to come the rest of the Winter Season here in FL. Big rain events coming in short periods of time. Some of the rain that was received yesterday is what is normal for the whole Winter Season and many got that amount in 1 hour. Orlando International picked up over 2.50" of rain so far this week which more than the what is average for all of November.
Quoting 541. StormTrackerScott:



I think its peaking now so we may see a max of 3.1C for nino 3.4. Effects from this should become more prevalent over the coming weeks.

ESPI has taken an absolute dive.. It's 0.59

SOI has gone the other way pretty far too. It does look like we are around peak.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 22 Nov 2015 Average for last 30 days -6.73
Average for last 90 days -14.59
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 10.18
Monthly average SOI values August -19.02
September -16.66
October -21.30
Quoting 536. Jedkins01:



Yeah so far this event hasn't been as impressive as expected, and it saddens me because I was looking forward to it, the forecast high here was 62 and we're 68 right now. All temps area wide are 4-6 degrees above their forecast. Oh well at least it's still cooler and drier overall.

However is a possibility though that it will still get as cold as expected for tomorrow morning and again for highs tomorrow and lows tomorrow night. It's possible the timing of the coldest air is the only forecast error and the coldest air is yet to arrive based on upstream data. It's too early to say, we should be able to gauge things better by late tonight.
So far, the temperatures from here to Minnesota are running from 5 to 10 degrees above forecast. It's still 33 in Minneapolis, and the snow never got further south than about central Illinois and Indiana. None of these features are good for unusually cold temperatures here. It may get below freezing here by a degree or two for a couple of hours if the wind goes calm. The sky is perfectly clear here now, so that should aid in radiational cooling. This is a lot different than the 26 degrees predicted two days ago though. It seems like the GFS really overdid this one again in terms of cold temperatures. Unfortunately, all this may translate into a lot less cooling down there as well. Sarasota, as one example, was supposed to have a high of 76, and that was raised from 74 yesterday. The actual high has been 79. Better than the high 80's, but not exactly a big cool wave either.
Quoting 544. StormTrackerScott:



Hi Skye, a sign of whats to come the rest of the Winter Season here in FL. Big rain events coming in short periods of time. Some of the rain that was received yesterday is what is normal for the whole Winter Season and many got that amount in 1 hour. Orlando International picked up over 2.50" of rain so far this week which more than the what is average for all of November.

I should have done better reporting that thru Skywarn. It's been so common this year. Crews finally fixed up the driveways and damage from the heavy rain spells a few months ago. It dried out in between. It's been feast or famine. The dry ground took it in quick.
Cool weather finally getting down here!

Quoting 511. sar2401:

The freeze warning here is still on, and it will probably verify for areas from about Montgomery north. I think it's going to be off the mark further south. Up to 61 now under perfectly clear skies. It's breezy, but not windy, and the breeze doesn't have that cold air advection "bite", if you know what I mean. It just doesn't feel like other cool days that have preceded a freeze. If the winds go to calm tonight, it may actually get below freezing, but I'm thinking it's more likely it won't. I hope so, since that means a lot less lugging plants to the greenhouse.


Finally froze tomato plants in my suburban DC MD backyard on Sat AM Nov 20. Expecting a hard freeze Monday morning Nov 22 but that is late and it won't be hard enough to hurt my citrus, lettuce, or broccoli at all.
Thanks for the response folks!!
Euro and GFS both have a storm around NYC area Dec 2nd..we'll see what future runs say.......................
Quoting 422. nonblanche:



Turkey attacks are actually a thing in Davis, CA. There's a flock of wild turkeys that wander around the neighborhoods, harassing runners and slower bike riders.

There's a family of three wild turkeys here that have started snacking on the poultry feed we put in the orchard, and harassing the pair of chickens, the ducks and the goose. If they keep it up, we may have Christmas Dinner all planned. (There's a specific season, but if they become a real nuisance - depending on the feed, scaring the current orchard residents, and claiming the orchard as territory - we can do something about it.)

(I wouldn't mind at all adding them as residents, but I think Christmas the Goose and Chicklet the Rooster won't accept the situation at all.


Reminds me of the Thanksgiving episode of WKRP when they dropped turkeys in Cincinnati.
Quoting 480. annabatic:

And further in the same article mentioned below:

The natural difficulties of imagining the human role in global warming have been exacerbated by an intensive campaign of brainwashing by the oil companies, coal-burning utilities and extractive industries.

"There's been a deluge of misinformation that confuses the issue in the mind of the public," said Pollack.

In other words, it's not just that American's are hearing about climate change too infrequently; when they do hear about it, the message is contaminated.

There is a long history of corporations and their paid scientists of waging public relations wars designed to camouflage the causal roles of their products in specific environmental problems and human health issues, said Pollack.

Agro-chemical companies denied the scientific link between pesticides like DDT and bird, fish and animal deformities. The tobacco industry questioned scientific studies that linked smoking and second hand smoke to lung cancer. The coal industry questioned the link between burning coal and acid rain.

For the past 25 years, the fossil fuel industries and their representatives have been trying to suggest that there is no scientific consensus on global warming.

In his talk, Pollack called them "manufacturers and distributors of uncertainty."


The movie "Thank you for Smoking" illustrated this in well though also quite funny.
Hey guys what's up I heard that a nice cold front is heading our way first front for us this season too

Scot I see your still on about this El Niño well I say this El Niño has Peaked IMO
Should expect a drop off back to neutral and into La Niña by Hurricane season 2016 IMO

In the mean time I expect a big cool down for here and SE US over the winter IMO
Les Nessman...lol.



Quoting 553. VAstorms:



Reminds me of the Thanksgiving episode of WKRP when they dropped turkeys in Cincinnati.
Quoting 553. VAstorms:



Reminds me of the Thanksgiving episode of WKRP when they dropped turkeys in Cincinnati.
"Oh, the...uh...uh...humanity!" :-)

No problem with turkey attacks down here. If one shows up, he gets shot and served for dinner.
518 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015

...MARINE CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS TONIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OFF THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING.

WIND: GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING.

WAVES: STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7 TO 9 FEET IN THE
GULF STREAM AND 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THESE WINDS ALONG WITH HIGHER SEAS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON
ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY...AND LIKELY REMAIN
PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI
Quoting 555. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys what's up I heard that a nice cold front is heading our way first front for us this season too

Scot I see your still on about this El Niño well I say this El Niño has Peaked IMO
Should expect a drop off back to neutral and into La Niña by Hurricane season 2016 IMO

In the mean time I expect a big cool down for here and SE US over the winter IMO
Given the fact you kept saying El Nino would never, ever peak where it is now, maybe it's time to let STS bask in his moment of glory.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015

...FALL, SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE, FINALLY ARRIVES!...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS; RIP CURRENTS A CONCERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES BEGINNING MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT A SARASOTA TO CAPE CANAVERAL
LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED NOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF FAR SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. BEHIND THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SHOWERS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...SHOWER COVERAGE IS ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. SOME HIGH RES MODELS RUNS
DO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT...FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED AT LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND SUNSET
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY LATE EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO A FULL END FROM NW TO SE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S...EVEN 50S WEST OF THE LAKE! DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S THEN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SIMILAR
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM
MID-LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SLOW DEWPOINT RECOVERY. HOWEVER,
DEWPOINTS NEVER RETURN TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS...AND WITH A STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE A REFRESHING
CHANGE FOR MANY.
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
315 PM CST sun Nov 22 2015

Short term...

The biggest story in the short term period is that the first
freeze of the season will occur tonight. A freeze warning is in
effect for tonight for areas along and north of the Interstate 12
corridor in southeast Louisiana and all counties in southern
Mississippi in our forecast area. Temperatures should easily fall
into the upper 20s and lower 30s over the aforementioned
area...due to strong radiational cooling taking place tonight.
This strong radiational cooling will occur due to the perfect
combination of clear skies...a dry airmass...and light winds.
Temperatures will modify slightly tomorrow...as the main cold pool
begins to shift to the east...but highs will remain well below
normal in the upper 50s. Tomorrow night...another light freeze
will be possible...especially where cold air drainage occurs in
local river valleys like the Pearl and Pascagoula basins on the
Northshore and along the Mississippi coast.
Otherwise...temperatures should remain just above freezing
tomorrow night.

Tuesday will see a zonal flow regime set up aloft over the
area...and a weak vorticity maximum will also slip through the area.
Although there will be some weak forcing associated this
feature...the lack of moisture over the area will keep any shower
formation at Bay. The system should bring some high level clouds
to the area...but not much else. Temperatures will also begin to
modify...as the low level flow begins turns onshore. Highs should
remain around 5 degrees below average in the middle 60s.

In the wake of the passing vorticity maximum...increased negative vorticity
advection will develop Tuesday night and continue into
Wednesday...as an upper level ridge axis forms over the lower
Mississippi Valley. Warmer air aloft associated with the
subsidence from this ridge will weaken lapse rates and produce
some capping on Wednesday. This capping will keep shower activity
at a minimum on Wednesday...even as strengthening onshore flow
increases overall atmospheric moisture content in the low and
mid-levels. At most...expect to see partly to mostly cloudy
skies...some isolated showers along the coast...and highs climbing
back to more normal levels in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Overnight lows will also return to normal in the 40s and lower
50s.

Long term...

The models are showing a slower progression of a system expected
to move in from The Four Corners later this week. Both the Euro
and GFS indicate this upper level low will not begin to impact the
area until the Sunday through Monday time frame. There is low
confidence in the weekend forecast given the timing issues with
the Pacific based feature.
Please gimme a call after Paris COP 21 and let me know if anything substantial happens.
Yawn.
Ok Nino may be close to peaking but it will likely drop slowly, and perhaps with some spikes, with all the anomalous Kelvin wave heat moving at depth.
Battery Electric Cars (BEV's) produce less than half the total life-cycle emissions of similar-sized gasoline cars.

Here's a LINK to the November 16 article at Vox.

And here is a video from the article:


View on YouTube


As Brazil’s Largest City Struggles With Drought, Residents Are Leaving

For her and many other Sao Paulo residents, this is the new normal.

And this city is not alone. Brazil’s second largest city, Rio de Janeiro, is also facing water troubles, as are other coastal areas. It’s been an enormous shock to Brazilians, who are used to their country being called “the Saudi Arabia of Water” — historically, it has had as much water as that Middle Eastern country has oil.


Link


Record number of stranded seal pups in Northern California

SAUSALITO, Calif. — Marine mammal experts say another species of marine wildlife has begun turning up, emaciated and weak, in record numbers on the California coast in what has been a series of alarming signs of oceanic distress.

Link


a series of alarming signs of oceanic distress
Good evening everyone

It's 81, feeling like 86 right now, with a chance of rain here on the island tonight. Looking like a pretty good chance for some rain next week too.

I've spent the last four days feeling like I'm dying with the worst cold I've had in years. Seems that half the island is down with it. Still not near to feeling better yet. It's kicking my ....

So thanks for the wander through YouTube....that turkey episode reminded me of when asking my dad for something we knew we wouldn't get, he'd say "When pigs fly...."

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 562. quanta:

Please gimme a call after Paris COP 21 and let me know if anything substantial happens.
Yawn.



Man will never fly, and certainly 2 brothers in a bicycle shop in Dayton, Ohio, won't do it.

Cynicism is an attitude or state of mind characterized by a general distrust of others' motives.[1] A cynic may have a general lack of faith or hope in the human species or people motivated by ambition, desire, greed, gratification, materialism, goals, and opinions that a cynic perceives as vain, unobtainable, or ultimately meaningless and therefore deserving of ridicule or admonishment.

Link
570. trunkmonkey

The usual suspects , trotting out the same old dead talking point ?.

I'm shocked, shocked that this would happened.


How Fire, Once a Friend of Forests, Became a Destroyer

The roots of today’s massive wildfires, says historian and former firefighter Stephen Pyne, lie in the old misconception that all fire is bad.

Link
Quoting 570. trunkmonkey:

Just thought I'd throw in a little debate, how about these scientist, are they for real, or quacks?

A panel of prominent scientists debunked one of the most popular global warming arguments ahead of a major United Nations climate summit to take place in Paris later this month.

The scientists slammed policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as %u201Cnonsense,%u201D and they criticized politicians and activists for claiming the world was on the path for catastrophic global warming.

%u201CThe most important thing to keep in mind is %u2014 when you ask %u2018is it warming, is it cooling%u2019, etc. %u2014 is that we are talking about something tiny (temperature changes) and that is the crucial point,%u201D Dr. Richard Lindzen, a veteran climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

%u201CWe are speaking of small changes 0.25 Celcius would be about 51% of the recent warming and that strongly suggests a low and inconsequential climate sensitivity %u2014 meaning no problem at all,%u201D said Lindzen, who is also a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute.

President Barack Obama and his activist allies are calling for U.N. delegates to sign onto a global treaty to reduce CO2 emissions. Obama has been heavily pushing for this treaty for the past year or so, even lobbying the Chinese government to sign onto an agreement.

%u201CPolicies to slow CO2 emissions are really based on nonsense,%u201D Dr. Will Happer, a physicist at Princeton University, said during the panel Thursday hosted by the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation.

%u201CThey are all based on computer models that do not work. We are being led down a false path,%u201D Happer argued.

Scientists and environmentalists have added urgency to the U.N. climate summit by arguing 2015 is shaping up to be the hottest year on record based on surface temperature readings. Scientists warned this month Earth has warmed 1 degree Celsius since the late 1800s.

But Lindzen and his fellow panelists said claims of the hottest year on record are %u201Cnonsense%u201D because there%u2019s so much uncertainty surrounding surface temperature readings %u2014 especially since scientists often make lots of adjustments to weather station readings.

%u201CWhen someone points to this and says this is the warmest temperature on record. What are they talking about? It%u2019s just nonsense,%u201D Lindzen said. %u201CThis is a very tiny change period. And they are arguing over hundredths of a degree when it is uncertain in tenths of a degree.%u201D

%u201CAnd the proof that the uncertainty is tenths of a degree are the adjustments that are being made,%u201D Lindzen added. %u201CIf you can adjust temperatures to 2/10ths of a degree, it means it wasn%u2019t certain to 2/10ths of a degree.%u201D

As the world speeds towards Paris, Republicans have ramped up efforts to stop President Obama from being able to carry out his global warming agenda and impose a U.N. treaty on Americans.

Senate Republicans have passed two resolutions opposing carbon dioxide regulations on power plants, and lawmakers introduced a resolution opposed to any U.N. agreement Obama signs onto at the Paris climate summit.

%u201CWe are dealing with pure political propaganda that has nothing to do with science,%u201D Dr. Patrick Moore, an ecologist and the co-founder of Greenpeace, said of attempts to fight global warming during Thursday%u2019s panel.

%u201CWe know for absolute certain that carbon dioxide is the stuff of life, the foundation for life on earth,%u201D Moore said. %u201CCO2 has provided the basis of life for at least 3.5 billion years.%u201D

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/11/20/nonsense-top-sci entists-demolish-alarmism-behind-u-n-climate-summi t/#ixzz3sGrYslBp

Good evening T.M..The content and numbers of this post are vague at best, and has absolutely none of the most vital statistics on the matter....Your posts are usually better than this.
Quoting 555. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys what's up I heard that a nice cold front is heading our way first front for us this season too

Scot I see your still on about this El Niño well I say this El Niño has Peaked IMO
Should expect a drop off back to neutral and into La Niña by Hurricane season 2016 IMO

In the mean time I expect a big cool down for here and SE US over the winter IMO


Yeah like you webberweather and many others on here said the peak would be weak and early right? LOL. Seems as if this ENSO has schooled many on here.
Quoting 567. Grothar:







hmmmm where have i seen this track be for
Quoting 578. Tazmanian:




hmmmm where have i seen this track be for


Looks like Patricia part 2
Thank you hydrus for your response, I was wondering who these climatologist were, didn't know if they were the JV team or the A team, that's all I was looking for.
As far as stats these men produced, I agree with you.
Yes, and where does this energy end up in about 10 days?

Quoting 578. Tazmanian:




hmmmm where have i seen this track be for
570. trunkmonkey

A word about " the panel Thursday hosted by the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation ".

The American Geophysical Union's fall meeting is coming in December . They meet once a year, in San Francisco .

Welcome to the 2015 Fall Meeting. With nearly 24,000 attendees, AGU Fall Meeting is the largest Earth and space science meeting in the world. Now in its 48th year, AGU Fall Meeting is the best place to present your research; hear about the latest discoveries, trends, and challenges in the field; and network and make connections that can enhance your career.

Link

If the deniers are good at one thing , it's these "panels" , with "experts" in some hotel ballroom. Maybe 200 people show up . And trumping this as big deal.

The AGU get's 24,000 attendees , and none of the people at the "panel" you posted are presenting new papers, research, or even walking in the front door.
Quoting 570. trunkmonkey:

Just thought I'd throw in a little debate, how about these scientist, are they for real, or quacks?
TM, you can read about Dr. Richard Lintzen here.

More about Dr. William Happer here.

There's some details about Dr. Patrick Moore here.

Of these three "top scientists", Lintzen is indeed a climate physicist. Happer is a physicist whose specialty is optics. He has no background in climate science. Moore has a PhD in Ecology, specializing in forest ecology. He has no background in climate science.

You can decide if the views of one real expert (Lintzen) are enough to show that the vast majority of other climate scientists are wrong. As for the other two, I don't give their views on climate change any more credence than what you or I would write. It's not hard to use Google to track things down now. You don't need us to help inform your opinion.
One more word about Cynicism, I have spent my whole life hovering on the bubble between complete, and total despair , and being a 12 year old boy in the Wright Bicycle Shop sweeping up at the end of the day.
Annabelle wants to become the 1st hurricane equivalent of the 2015-16 Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Season:

03S ANNABELLE
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 23, 2015:

Location: 14.3°S 73.5°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb







Quoting 571. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good evening everyone

It's 81, feeling like 86 right now, with a chance of rain here on the island tonight. Looking like a pretty good chance for some rain next week too.

I've spent the last four days feeling like I'm dying with the worst cold I've had in years. Seems that half the island is down with it. Still not near to feeling better yet. It's kicking my ....

So thanks for the wander through YouTube....that turkey episode reminded me of when asking my dad for something we knew we wouldn't get, he'd say "When pigs fly...."

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Poor thing. I had a terrible cold two weeks ago, so I guess it migrated east from Alabama. The Virgins are a tough place to have a communicable disease. Except for the tourists, almost everyone knows everyone else. Introduce all those thousands of cruise ship passengers every week carrying who knows what kind of diseases, it's almost inevitable that respiratory illnesses are going to be passed back and forth. It took me just about seven days before I started feeling "normal" again, so you should be on the road to recovery...even if it doesn't feel like it right now. :-(
Quoting 515. sar2401:

No, there never were, but I ended up with a whole drawer full of A and B tickets, since they were only good on rides like the Mother Goose kiddie carousel. I'm sure there were probably about 5 million other people like me in the L.A. area, so A and B tickets are probably not worth anything. I'll bet E tickets are worth something though.

EDIT: I just checked on ebay. A mint ticket book from the 60's is going for $125!!! Rats!!!! I should have just bought a bunch of books, told my relatives to shove off, and saved them. I'd have enough money now to afford you shipping some veggies to me instead of growing my own. :-)


The other irony being that it's just about how much entry into Disneyland per person costs.
Quoting 572. ColoradoBob1:



Man will never fly, and certainly 2 brothers in a bicycle shop in Dayton, Ohio, won't do it.

Cynicism is an attitude or state of mind characterized by a general distrust of others' motives.[1] A cynic may have a general lack of faith or hope in the human species or people motivated by ambition, desire, greed, gratification, materialism, goals, and opinions that a cynic perceives as vain, unobtainable, or ultimately meaningless and therefore deserving of ridicule or admonishment.

Link


Non sequitur.
Quoting 553. VAstorms:



Reminds me of the Thanksgiving episode of WKRP when they dropped turkeys in Cincinnati.


Those were probably something similar to the Broadbreasted White. True wild turkeys can fly just fine, thank you very much. :)
Quoting 557. sar2401:

"Oh, the...uh...uh...humanity!" :-)

No problem with turkey attacks down here. If one shows up, he gets shot and served for dinner.


Season here's in the spring. Quite likely if a bunch were being true pests (attacking other livestock, threatening the children, getting into the feed) we could pump up the Daisy and nobody would say boo - but best to be sure.
Off topic, but does anyone here old enough remember where they were when they heard the news on November 22, 1963?...



583. sar2401
You don't need us to help inform your opinion.

The greatest research tool since Julius Caesar let the library at Alexandrian burn down. Certainly since the invention of the Dewy Decimal System.

And what one types in the search box , makes all the difference.

It's old song , most of us are just too lazy to look.
Quoting 574. ColoradoBob1:



How Fire, Once a Friend of Forests, Became a Destroyer

The roots of today’s massive wildfires, says historian and former firefighter Stephen Pyne, lie in the old misconception that all fire is bad.

Link



I guess it depends on which region. Out here in Florida, there are an increasing lack of fires, especially large ones, to the point where the FL forest service is trying to find a way to keep increasing controlled burns in the most natural way possible since forest fires are essential for new trees to grow here, especially pines.
Quoting 591. GeoffreyWPB:

Off topic, but does anyone here old enough remember where they were when they heard the news on November 22, 1963?...






Algebra class. Junior, Coral Gables High School, Coral Gables ,Fl.

Quoting 591. GeoffreyWPB:

Off topic, but does anyone here old enough remember where they were when they heard the news on November 22, 1963?...






Yep, in nuclear lab, playing bridge while waiting for some samples to be irradiated.
591. GeoffreyWPB
2:08 AM GMT on November 23, 2015

Off topic, but does anyone here old enough remember where they were November 22, 1963?...

Yes the 8th grade , the Velateens were going to play at 1 PM. We were all "jazzed". ( In the early 60's rock concerts were held at 1 PM ) Little known fact.
Then they came over the PA, at about 12:45, and told us to go to our home rooms.
I remember watching Jack Ruby live as well, that Sunday.

The Cuban Missile Crisis scared me much more.
Quoting 570. trunkmonkey:

Just thought I'd throw in a little debate, how about these scientist, are they for real, or quacks?

A panel of prominent scientists debunked one of the most popular global warming arguments ahead of a major United Nations climate summit to take place in Paris later this month.

The scientists slammed policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as “nonsense,” and they criticized politicians and activists for claiming the world was on the path for catastrophic global warming.

“The most important thing to keep in mind is — when you ask ‘is it warming, is it cooling’, etc. — is that we are talking about something tiny (temperature changes) and that is the crucial point,” Dr. Richard Lindzen, a veteran climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“We are speaking of small changes 0.25 Celcius would be about 51% of the recent warming and that strongly suggests a low and inconsequential climate sensitivity — meaning no problem at all,” said Lindzen, who is also a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute.

President Barack Obama and his activist allies are calling for U.N. delegates to sign onto a global treaty to reduce CO2 emissions. Obama has been heavily pushing for this treaty for the past year or so, even lobbying the Chinese government to sign onto an agreement.

“Policies to slow CO2 emissions are really based on nonsense,” Dr. Will Happer, a physicist at Princeton University, said during the panel Thursday hosted by the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation.

“They are all based on computer models that do not work. We are being led down a false path,” Happer argued.

Scientists and environmentalists have added urgency to the U.N. climate summit by arguing 2015 is shaping up to be the hottest year on record based on surface temperature readings. Scientists warned this month Earth has warmed 1 degree Celsius since the late 1800s.

But Lindzen and his fellow panelists said claims of the hottest year on record are “nonsense” because there’s so much uncertainty surrounding surface temperature readings — especially since scientists often make lots of adjustments to weather station readings.

“When someone points to this and says this is the warmest temperature on record. What are they talking about? It’s just nonsense,” Lindzen said. “This is a very tiny change period. And they are arguing over hundredths of a degree when it is uncertain in tenths of a degree.”

“And the proof that the uncertainty is tenths of a degree are the adjustments that are being made,” Lindzen added. “If you can adjust temperatures to 2/10ths of a degree, it means it wasn’t certain to 2/10ths of a degree.”

As the world speeds towards Paris, Republicans have ramped up efforts to stop President Obama from being able to carry out his global warming agenda and impose a U.N. treaty on Americans.

Senate Republicans have passed two resolutions opposing carbon dioxide regulations on power plants, and lawmakers introduced a resolution opposed to any U.N. agreement Obama signs onto at the Paris climate summit.

“We are dealing with pure political propaganda that has nothing to do with science,” Dr. Patrick Moore, an ecologist and the co-founder of Greenpeace, said of attempts to fight global warming during Thursday’s panel.

“We know for absolute certain that carbon dioxide is the stuff of life, the foundation for life on earth,” Moore said. “CO2 has provided the basis of life for at least 3.5 billion years.”

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/11/20/nonsense-top-sci entists-demolish-alarmism-behind-u-n-climate-summi t/#ixzz3sGrYslBp



If scientists are quacks, then Obama is a reptilian shape shifter...
Quoting 598. Jedkins01:



If scientists are quacks, then Obama is a reptilian shape shifter...


What if, like, Obama is secretly working for the government, man? ;)
No, I was born a a few years later, but I still have my father's copy of The Asbury Park Press. My father was WWII Irish Catholic. He only had a few personal belongings that he kept in a safe place. That paper was among them.

Quoting 591. GeoffreyWPB:

Off topic, but does anyone here old enough remember where they were when they heard the news on November 22, 1963?...




337 Whales Beached in Largest Stranding Ever


Scientists made a startling discovery on an observation flight over a remote fjord in southern Chile’s Patagonia: 337 dead whales. That is the biggest single whale stranding event known to science.

Link
Nice!....... Might get to do some snook fly fishing in Florida Bay without the skeeters devouring me!

Quoting 592. GeoffreyWPB:


Color me confused.... While I agree that we shouldn't ramp up sulfur dioxide emissions to save the arctic as the article points out. The article is nonetheless confusing.

http://www.adn.com/article/20151122/cleaner-atmos phere-means-more-arctic-sea-ice-melt-study-says

Link
Quoting 598. Jedkins01:



If scientists are quacks, then Obama is a reptilian shape shifter...


That is being nice


“A team of scientists have found around 766 individual methane gas flares within an area of seabed off the coast of Gisborne, in what has been described as a “major advance” for science and a first for New Zealand.”

“The biological survey of the gas flares zone had secured a major advance for science, he said, with observations suggesting that chemoautophic species – those that depend for food on a symbiosis with bacteria that use the methane – can occur at relatively shallow depths.”

“The discovery of this high concentration of gas flares in shallow water depths – 100m-300m – on an active tectonic subduction zone was unique, as gas seeps usually ocurred much deeper, at 600m to 1000m below the surface.

The team identified methane gas in the sediment and in the ocean, and vast areas of methane hydrates – ice-like frozen methane – below the seafloor.”


Link

The previous year there were only 50 flares in the same area. We have heard nothing for 6 months about this.
Quoting 594. Jedkins01:
I guess it depends on which region. Out here in Florida, there are an increasing lack of fires, especially large ones, to the point where the FL forest service is trying to find a way to keep increasing controlled burns in the most natural way possible since forest fires are essential for new trees to grow here, especially pines.
Fire has always been part of the ecosystem. No guessing needed.
Quoting 599. Naga5000:



What if, like, Obama is secretly working for the government, man? ;)



How a DVD Case Killed a Whale
The number of whales and dolphins harmed by floating marine debris seems to be on the rise.

A necropsy revealed the animal had swallowed a shard of rigid, black plastic that lacerated its stomach, preventing it from feeding. The weakened whale also had been struck by a ship and suffered a fractured vertebrae. “It was a very long and painful decline,” Barco says.

The shard that caused the whale’s demise was identified as a broken piece of DVD case. Most likely the marine mammal had swallowed the debris while feeding at the surface.

Link
Quoting 570. trunkmonkey:


Quoting 610. BaltimoreBrian:






:)

Quoting 591. GeoffreyWPB:

Off topic, but does anyone here old enough remember where they were when they heard the news on November 22, 1963?.                                                                                                                                                                     ..HS junior ,electronics lab.. stunned by the news in colorado @ about 11  am





Quoting 591. GeoffreyWPB:

Off topic, but does anyone here old enough remember where they were when they heard the news on November 22, 1963?...






Geez, I honestly do remember that day, for some unknown reason. I'm going to date myself here when I answer this! ;-)

It was a month short of my 7th birthday when my mother tried to sit me down and explain how an important man had died that day. My answer was, "Was he as important as Santa Claus?" (Out of the mouths of babes....)

Lindy
I was in a BArber chair getting a Haircut for Thanksgiving when the CBS feed broke to Walter on the TV atop the COke machine. I remember the Hushed cries, and my Mother whistling me out in a Hurry. Also I remember the sadness thru the Funeral at our Home.


I was 7 weeks shy of 4. Then in 68, RFK and MLK were shot down.

At 8 years then, only Apollo 8 saved 1968.

It was a a lot to take in with the War and these assassinations.

Then in July 69' we landed on the Moon, and 4 weeks later Camille Hit.

The 60's were chock full of change.



I find it really amazing , that cartoons get votes , but whales dying from swallowing our plastic., are by passed.

It's really hard to vote for the death of whales. Cartoons are soooooo much easier.
Quoting 556. HaoleboySurfEC:

Les Nessman...lol.






As good as my witness, I thought turkeys could fly. Oh the humanity.

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39°NLon: 84.35°W Elev: 203 ft.


Fair

49°F

9°C
Humidity 59%
Wind Speed N 3 mph
Barometer 30.12 in (1019.8 mb)
Dewpoint 35°F (2°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 22 Nov 9:53 pm EST



I don't really understand why some Floridians complain about this kind of weather, it's great and refreshing outside. This isn't too cold, just a refreshingly cool change to 82 with a dewpoint of 70. It feels like camping, fires, and the holiday season.

Not sure why the airport is only reporting north winds at 3 mph, it's gusty here where I'm at, probably 15 gusting to 25.
#591:
The announcement came over the 'P.A.' in our small town B.C. High school.
Watched all the films available since then with trepidation.
Hopefully the trained 'gunnies' can keep Obama and our new Prime Minister alive.
Dallas Drenching?

Quoting 610. BaltimoreBrian:






My absolute, favorite meme Brian...seriously, ridiculous how some will defend big oil and big polluters
623. flsky
Quoting 591. GeoffreyWPB:

Off topic, but does anyone here old enough remember where they were when they heard the news on November 22, 1963?...





7th grade art class. Both teachers were crying.
Let me guess, nothing is working again here. I see all the posts are already out of order in terms of time. This reminds me of building Interstate 75. They never get done.
Quoting 619. Jedkins01:


Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39°NLon: 84.35°W Elev: 203 ft.


Fair

49°F

9°C
Humidity 59%
Wind Speed N 3 mph
Barometer 30.12 in (1019.8 mb)
Dewpoint 35°F (2°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 22 Nov 9:53 pm EST



I don't really understand why some Floridians complain about this kind of weather, it's great and refreshing outside. This isn't too cold, just a refreshingly cool change to 82 with a dewpoint of 70. It feels like camping, fires, and the holiday season.

Not sure why the airport is only reporting north winds at 3 mph, it's gusty here where I'm at, probably 15 gusting to 25.


It is such a breath of fresh air after the warm to hot weather the past 8-9 months. 54F here currently, and looking like we could actually see 40s here for the first time this season. No complaints here.
Dallas drenching?

Quoting 576. hydrus:

Good evening T.M..The content and numbers of this post are vague at best, and has absolutely none of the most vital statistics on the matter....Your posts are usually better than this.


Really? Seems to be about the usual nonsensical garbage to me.

Still waiting for him or the others from his merry little band of science deniers to actually provide a physical model to support their insanity. $DIETY knows the observations don't.
Hi guys....
seems like Season's over

Anyone else wanna predict if we will have more storms anymore for the remainder of whatever it's left of this season or whatever?
Quoting 603. Dakster:

Color me confused.... While I agree that we shouldn't ramp up sulfur dioxide emissions to save the arctic as the article points out. The article is nonetheless confusing.

http://www.adn.com/article/20151122/cleaner-atmos phere-means-more-arctic-sea-ice-melt-study-says

Link


What in particular is confusing about it? It's simplified (maybe too simplified) and not terribly well written, but it gets things generally correct. Not all human emissions greenhouse gases. Some have the capacity to act as a negative forcing, such as sulfur dioxide. In fact, that was a primary culprit in masking the warming signal prior to the clean air act.

The clean air act and other anti-pollution regulations implemented here and across the developed world however has reduced or eliminated the production of a number of these compounds (because people like breath, eat food, have kids that don't have an arm growing out of their forehead, etc.). Without these compounds acting as a brake, more warming takes place. The study the article refers to quantifies this by estimating the impact on arctic sea ice.

The scientists then go on to say that their result should not be implied to mean that we should take off the pollution controls, probably in response to the idea of geoengineering using sulfur dioxide to act as a solar blocker. It would be like those medications you here advertisements for on TV: Cures toe fungus, but side effects include renal failure, cardiac arrest, etc. .
I never say never, but it is looking very unlikely for any more tropical system formation in the Atlantic.

Quoting 629. MaxWeather:

Hi guys....
seems like Season's over

Anyone else wanna predict if we will have more storms anymore for the remainder of whatever it's left of this season or whatever?
water report = might be higher than usual but no where near the 1997 nov level. this is an eye ball visual not from a computer screen.
Good morning, really nice outside.Might buy the tree and put out Christmas decorations!!!

Quoting 628. Xyrus2000:



Really? Seems to be about the usual nonsensical garbage to me.



You're being too kind.
models still saying a storm for the northeast dec 2nd...................................
Quoting 570. trunkmonkey:

Just thought I'd throw in a little debate, how about these scientist, are they for real, or quacks?

A panel of prominent scientists debunked one of the most popular global warming arguments ahead of a major United Nations climate summit to take place in Paris later this month.

...
Once again, an ideologically-compromised website posts a lengthy, wandering diatribe about a tiny group of familiar denialists convening at an ALEC-allied symposium funded primarily by the fossil fuel industry to drone on and on while rehashing the same discredited and debunked nonsense that's been heard a thousand--a million--times before. And once again someone reads that diatribe, then breathlessly hurries over to this forum to post that article.

Sigh...

It used to be amazing how often that would happen. But now it's just wearisome.
Nino 3.4 is now up to 3.1C. We are now 0.4C higher than 1997 using the same week ending November 16th.

18NOV2015 23.8 2.1 28.0 3.0 29.7 3.1 30.4 1.8
Looks like at least a piece of our remnant Pacific hurricane would be part of that scenario.

Quoting 640. LargoFl:

models still saying a storm for the northeast dec 2nd...................................
Major SOI crash about to take place. Could see some -50's on the daily averages starting later this week. So all this noise about the SOI rising which it typically does in November anyways is about to be put to rest.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 31m31 minutes ago

The Southern Oscillation to bottom out around -3.5 standard deviations. Will rise in the med-range but to -2 sigma..
Good Morning. Pretty cool out there.........................

You can see the precip forming to the East of the Sierra/Nevada mountains at the CA/NV border on the loop:




Quoting 645. tampabaymatt:




Major change occurring in the long range models Matt as the Southern jet continues to take hold and strengthen. Should be dry here in FL over the next week but once December hits the storm parade begins and we could see storms crossing FL every few days. Also the Mid Atlantic needs to watch this as well for what could be some sneaky snow events coming.

WSI is stating FL could see the Wettest December on record. WSI is also saying that the Northers US & Canada are in for a Historic December in terms of record heat. WOW!!!

Those bashing the CFSv2 are really in for disappointing times ahead across the Northern US as record heat takes hold. I can't believe the consistency on some of these models.

December precip


December Temps
From WSI this morning. Good grief folks not looking like a good Winter for Northern Snow lovers.

BOTTOM LINE: December 2015 is expected to feature near record warm weather central-southern Canada in through portions of the northern U.S. On the contrast, cool and wet conditions favored across the South. The highly anomalous warmth in December that is anticipated to develop across North America is attributed to weather patterns driven by the strongest El Nino observed in our data archives.

Lake Michigan this Winter?
Temp anomalies from WSI


Precip anomalies




According to AEI, we are currently in the strongest El Nino ever observed. This index rose to +4 standard deviations back in August, breaking the old all-time high amplitude record set back during the 1982-1983 Super El Nino. Just two months later, the AEI rose to an incredible +4.96 standard deviations!! Why is this important? The chances of this El Nino event to repeat are along the lines of 1:10,000 years. Since El Nino only occurs on average once every 7 years, the chances of seeing another El Nino event as strong as the one underway is less than 0.01%.
Hi all, their is a great article on the WB Premium Site about what is about to happen to the current Super Nino, it's going to take a tumble, as the SOI will be near 0 for the 30 day monthly average come December, and we should have a strong La Nina come mid to late summer of 2016, extending into 2018. How would this affect the forecast for this winter if this were to happen, would their still be a lot of rain and snow for the West and South, and how about global temps, as we all know the El Nino does affect Global temps. If this were to verify, this should bring a more active hurricane season for 2016 to 2018, before we start to see a cooling of both the PDO and AMO, which I hope will further cool the Global Temps. If this does happen, maybe we can spend all this money on something worthwhile, like how to stop overpopulation, water and air pollution and then alternative fuel sources, but lets fix the first three first, and worry about the last one when we have the means to accomplish it. If we don't fix the first three first, then we need not worry about the last one.
Quoting 656. NativeSun:

Hi all, their is a great article on the WB Premium Site about what is about to happen to the current Super Nino, it's going to take a tumble, as the SOI will be near 0 for the 30 day monthly average come December, and we should have a strong La Nina come mid to late summer of 2016, extending into 2018. How would this affect the forecast for this winter if this were to happen, would their still be a lot of rain and snow for the West and South, and how about global temps, as we all know the El Nino does affect Global temps. If this were to verify, this should bring a more active hurricane season for 2016 to 2018, before we start to see a cooling of both the PDO and AMO, which I hope will further cool the Global Temps. If this does happen, maybe we can spend all this money on something worthwhile, like how to stop overpopulation, water and air pollution and then alternative fuel sources, but lets fix the first three first, and worry about the last one when we have the means to accomplish it. If we don't fix the first three first, then we need not worry about the last one.



What makes you think there will be a sustained cooling? What is that based on? El Nino does affect global temperature, but regardless of El Nino, the temperatures are increasing, the trend does not change.

Quoting 656. NativeSun:

Hi all, their is a great article on the WB Premium Site about what is about to happen to the current Super Nino, it's going to take a tumble, as the SOI will be near 0 for the 30 day monthly average come December, and we should have a strong La Nina come mid to late summer of 2016, extending into 2018. How would this affect the forecast for this winter if this were to happen, would their still be a lot of rain and snow for the West and South, and how about global temps, as we all know the El Nino does affect Global temps. If this were to verify, this should bring a more active hurricane season for 2016 to 2018, before we start to see a cooling of both the PDO and AMO, which I hope will further cool the Global Temps. If this does happen, maybe we can spend all this money on something worthwhile, like how to stop overpopulation, water and air pollution and then alternative fuel sources, but lets fix the first three first, and worry about the last one when we have the means to accomplish it. If we don't fix the first three first, then we need not worry about the last one.



LOL! SOI typically rises in November during El-Nino years and BTW the SOI is about to take a huge tumble as it is expected to reach -3.5 standard deviations later this week into next week. Basically that entails -40 to -50's on the daily averages coming very soon.
Quoting 657. Naga5000:



What makes you think there will be a sustained cooling? What is that based on? El Nino does affect global temperature, but regardless of El Nino, the temperatures are increasing, the trend does not change.




Huge SOI crash coming along with a Aleutian Trough which is important for sending the jet underneath as this occurs the Northern US heats up and FL turns very wet. Basically this what the CFSv2 has been showing which is a blow torch for December across much of the US & Canada.
Anytime you see deep reds over Australia meaning high pressure vrs deep blues over Tahiti meaning low pressure that entails a major SOI drop coming. This drop could be one of the most significant one's we've seen from this El-Nino so far and this will likely mean a major WWB as well. This could be why the recent runs of the CFSv2 have El-Nino going thru part of next Summer.

Had a hellava frost this morning in the mid 30s. Lot of white out there, of course it's long gone now.
You can also see what appears to be the beginnings of this WWB by the end of November. Bottomline MJO fades as El-Nino base state takes over which has been non existent really since late October.

Quoting 661. RitaEvac:

Had a hellava frost this morning in the mid 30s. Lot of white out there, of course it's long gone now.


Got down to 46 here in Longwood. Coolest air since March.
664. MahFL
Quoting 663. StormTrackerScott:



Got down to 46 here in Longwood. Coolest air since March.


Was 42F here in Orange Park, some 4F cooler than forecast.
Latest AEI index is expected rise back to near 4 standard deviations in early December. This means strong El-Nino forcing getting ready to materialize once the SOI begins its drop. Major implications across North America in the long term.
Quoting 664. MahFL:



Was 42F here in Orange Park, some 4F cooler than forecast.


Car said 44 in Apopka but officially at my house it was 46.
Quoting 666. StormTrackerScott:



Car said 44 in Apopka but officially at my house it was 46.


My location hit 49 with a dewpoint of 39 at 6 AM. Tampa hasn't been below 60 degrees since March.
It's possible with all these signals I am seeing this morning that come December its possible El-Nino may make a run at another peak come Mid to late December maybe pushing 3.3C to 3.4C for Nino 3.4. This new WWB may also develop a new Oceanic Kelvin Wave as well to keep 2C values thru January into February.
Quoting 667. tampabaymatt:



My location hit 49 with a dewpoint of 39 at 6 AM. Tampa hasn't been below 60 degrees since March.



Feels great outside!
Climate change and the catastrophic wildfire
November 23, 2015 by Alexandra (Sasha) Wright, Plos Blogs


Over the past several months news of widespread wildfires has coursed through the media from every corner of the world. In the United States, the wildfire season is now two months longer than it was 100 years ago. In 2015 alone, over 9.3 million acres of land have burned in the U.S. (the 2nd largest amount on record) and with current elevated fire risk in California and Texas (as of 11/12/15) that number seems likely to rise by the end of the year. The manifold economic costs of fires to land and business owners have fueled a culture of fire suppression in spite of changes in policy at the national level.
Yet fires, even severe ones like the ones that burned 1.2 million acres of land in Yellowstone National Park in 1988 or the infamous blaze in Mann Gulch, Montana provide many benefits for ecosystems and often serve to promote diversity.
However, as disturbances increase in their frequency and severity due to climate change the role of fire in forest ecosystems may change as well.

Lightning strikes, discarded cigarette butts, and other (often anthropogenic) factors cause fires which create minor disturbances in forest ecosystems. Minor fires provide an influx of light and nitrogen to a forest that previously was light and nutrient limited. Low severity fires do little damage to large trees and belowground structures, allowing re-establishment of seedlings and herbaceous species as little as two weeks post-fire. Forests can recover from low-severity fires fairly quickly. In fact, some have noted a return to pre-fire composition in as few as three years.
Severe fires have become more common in the western U.S. due to multi-year droughts and the increase in fuel availability due to fire suppression efforts. But even these severe fires do not seem to have a large effect on belowground biomass and thus regeneration is likely. Indeed, in recent work in PLoS One, Dennis Odion and colleagues note that mixed severity fire regimes, even those that include high intensity burns, are more likely to result in a patchy distribution of successional stages throughout a forest than low and moderate intensity burns.
Ultimately, these mixed intensity burns result in greater diversity of these forests: both at small and large scales.


Furthermore, Odion et al. demonstrate that mixed severity fire regimes were common throughout the northwestern United States prior to U.S. Forest Service intervention. Long-term fire suppression, however, has resulted in less fire adapted ecosystems throughout many regions where disturbance-prone forests used to be present. Thus fire may no longer have the same effects on diversity as predicted, when we are basing these predictions on historical data.
What happens when fire interacts with climate change?
Climate change has and will continue to increase the severity and frequency of ecological disturbance due to fire. Beyond this, climate change is also affecting natural species distributions and exotic species invasions. The co-occurrence of increased fire due to climate change and increased invasions due to climate change may sometimes be disastrous. In western North America, pine bark beetles are ravaging populations of pine trees across several mountain ranges. These beetles caused disturbances in the past but the current epidemic is an order of magnitude worse than prior invasions. Recent research suggests that this increase in severity is due to the increase in air temperature in these mountain ranges. Pine bark beetles reproduce during summer months when the temperature is warm in the northern hemisphere.
Over the past 20 years, air temperature in Colorado has increased by > 1.5 degrees C, resulting in earlier emergence of the pine bark beetle by more than a month. This increased temperature means that pine bark beetles can reproduce twice during a single season rather than once.
Often the effects of even severe disturbance, like the unprecedented pine bark beetle outbreak in the western United States, are dependent upon the forest community that precedes the disturbance. Recent work by Gregory Pec and colleagues, also in PLoS One, demonstrated that forests may sometimes respond positively to pine bark beetle invasion: beetle invaded forests had nearly double the species diversity of their non-invaded counterparts two years after beetle disturbance. However, these same higher diversity bark beetle forests are likely more susceptible to severe fires in the future.


Evolution may provide forests with the tools needed to cope with increased disturbance in a world of constant climate flux. If disturbance removes species that are less resilient to disturbance and more resilient species remain or recolonize, the ecosystem may become more disturbance resistant! Evidence for this type of evolutionary response to changes in disturbance regimes is beginning to emerge. Hollingsworth et al. (2013) found that in Alaska (which has warmed at twice the global average rate over the past 50 years – meaning that it is now 1.3 degrees C warmer, as of 2011, than it was 50 years ago) an increased prevalence and higher severity of fires has resulted in a shift in the community towards species (and functional traits) that are better able to cope with fire. Importantly, these shifts in community composition and functional traits are predicated on the presence of sufficient variation within the community – an assumption that may not be true as populations get smaller and species become more limited in their ability to move around the landscape.

Climate change may directly exacerbate the negative effects of fires via increased greenhouse gas emissions. In 2011, Niboyet et al. demonstrated that the combined impacts of climate change and fire will increase emissions of greenhouse gasses (N2O) from the soil in multiplicative ways. Rising atmospheric CO2 stimulates soil production of N2O, a potent greenhouse gas.
Fire stimulates the release of N2O. When these two processes are combined with nitrogen enhancement, as is the case in many fire driven ecosystems, the result is a six-fold increase in soil N2O emissions.

Under current climate change predictions fire regimes are likely to change rapidly and unpredictably across ecosystems worldwide. These unpredictable changes in fire regime may challenge even forest ecosystems' ability to adapt to climate flux. As the effects of climate change intensify, fire may play an increasingly adversarial role in forest ecosystems, particularly at human-forest interfaces where the results of fire are often devastating. The complex interactions between forest fires and climate make these disturbances an important component of any conversation about global biodiversity and climate change. Coming into the climate change talks in Paris in two weeks, we'll want to see a continuation of these conversations alongside conversations about forest ecosystem degradation and deforestation (so called REDD+ targets).



Quoting 657. Naga5000:



What makes you think there will be a sustained cooling? What is that based on? El Nino does affect global temperature, but regardless of El Nino, the temperatures are increasing, the trend does not change.




I think its interesting that La Nina apparently cools down the Earth a lot more than El Nino warms up the earth, compared to normal.
You can really see the cold air advection occurring on the visible.

Forecasts had rain and in the 40s this coming weekend with arctic intrusion, but now it's been cut out with rain and in the 60s. Not sure what's going on but they were confident earlier that an arctic outbreak was gonna break off from Alaska and Canada and plow down the plains
Quoting 672. tampabaymatt:

You can really see the cold air advection occurring on the visible.




Hi Matt, are water levels still high around you after all the Summer rains. Around my area water levels have only dropped slightly in my area but in Volusia County water levels are rising after all the rains of late. SW Volusia County just north of me saw 3" to 6" of rain on Saturday infact there is a blogger on that lives in Orange City and I wonder what he received rainfall wise as a PWS station in that location recorded nearly 3.5".
18NOV2015 23.8 2.1 28.0 3.0 29.7 3.1 30.4 1.8


today update has EL Nino has all time high but the peak is near i say next update it will peak up 3.2 or 3.3 be for falling off


Nino 1 and 2 2.1

nino 3 3.0

nino 3.4 3.1

nino 4 1.8
Quoting 673. RitaEvac:

Forecasts had rain and in the 40s this coming weekend with arctic intrusion, but now it's been cut out with rain and in the 60s. Not sure what's going on but they were confident earlier that an arctic outbreak was gonna break off from Alaska and Canada and plow down the plains


Trough is slower coming out it appears. The slower trough seems to be a result of this Gulf of Alaska trough getting deeper in time causing the jet to start cutting underneath come December. As a result the Arctic intrusion that was forecast may not happen but that can change well see how the models do this week.
Quoting 675. Tazmanian:

18NOV2015 23.8 2.1 28.0 3.0 29.7 3.1 30.4 1.8


today update has EL Nino has all time high but the peak is near i say next update it will peak up 3.2 or 3.3 be for falling off


Nino 1 and 2 2.1

nino 3 3.0

nino 3.4 3.1

nino 4 1.8


Hi Taz we may see values level off for a time before potentially rising again as there is expected to be a major SOI crash with associated WWB come later this week into next week. So its possible the peak may actually occur around Christmas.
678. beell
Quoting 676. StormTrackerScott:



Trough is slower coming out it appears.


The block is named Rex.
:)


GFS 500 mb heights, temps, winds-valid Friday

Rex, King of Blocking outside the NFL.

Welcome back
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/un-weather-rela ted-disasters-occur-almost-daily_56532af2e4b0258ed b320f50
Quoting 674. StormTrackerScott:



Hi Matt, are water levels still high around you after all the Summer rains. Around my area water levels have only dropped slightly in my area but in Volusia County water levels are rising after all the rains of late. SW Volusia County just north of me saw 3" to 6" of rain on Saturday infact there is a blogger on that lives in Orange City and I wonder what he received rainfall wise as a PWS station in that location recorded nearly 3.5".


Just based on my observation, I’d say they’re around normal. There was a period for about 2 months over the summer when any rain would instantly bring flooding as the ground was saturated beyond belief and all of the reservoirs were full, there was nowhere else for the water to go. Around my area, the creeks are back to normal and maybe even a little below normal since October and November have been dry.

There were some retention ponds in N Tampa and Pasco County that were spilling over their banks and flooding some homes in August. I would like to see where those levels are at.

So, even after around 73 inches of rain for my location year to date, it’s amazing how things drop off when we go 2 months with below average rain.
Quoting 678. beell:



The block is named Rex.
:)


GFS 500 mb heights, temps, winds-valid Friday




The block occurs as the Gulf of Alaska trough begins to take hold. Once that happen the Southern jet strengthens.

Watch how this evolves.

144hrs


168hrs


240hrs
Quoting 678. beell:



The block is named Rex.
:)


GFS 500 mb heights, temps, winds-valid Friday




Rex can be a stubborn young man.
Link for # 680

By Tom Miles

GENEVA, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Weather-related disasters such as floods and heatwaves have occurred almost daily in the past decade, almost twice as often as two decades ago, with Asia being the hardest hit region, a U.N. report said on Monday.

While the report authors could not pin the increase wholly on climate change, they did say that the upward trend was likely to continue as extreme weather events increased.

Since 1995, weather disasters have killed 606,000 people, left 4.1 billion injured, homeless or in need of aid, and accounted for 90 percent of all disasters, it said.

A recent peak year was 2002, when drought in India hit 200 million and a sandstorm in China affected 100 million. But the standout mega-disaster was Cyclone Nargis, which killed 138,000 in Myanmar in 2008.

While geophysical causes such as earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis often grab the headlines, they only make up one in 10 of the disasters trawled from a database defined by the impact.

The report, called "The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters," found there were an average of 335 weather-related disasters annually between 2005 and August this year, up 14 percent from 1995-2004 and almost twice as many as in the years from 1985 to 1994.

"While scientists cannot calculate what percentage of this rise is due to climate change, predictions of more extreme weather in future almost certainly mean that we will witness a continued upward trend in weather-related disasters in the decades ahead," the report said.

The release of the report comes a week before world leaders gather in Paris to discuss plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions and prevent world temperatures rising.

The United Nations says atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas that causes global warming, have risen to a new record every year for the past 30 years.

"All we can say is that certain disaster types are increasing. Floods are definitely increasing," said Debarati Guha-Sapir, professor at the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at UCL University in Louvain, Belgium, which co-authored the report.

"Whether it's increasing due to global warming, I think it's safe to say the jury's out on that. But rather than focus on the ifs, whys and wherefores, I think we should focus on how to manage floods."

Margareta Wahlstrom, head of the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), said floods were not just caused by heavy rain but also by poorly planned construction.

UNISDR estimates natural disasters of all types cause losses of $250 billion-$300 billion globally each year.

The report drew on a database of weather events that defines an event as a disaster if 10 or more people are killed, 100 or more are affected, a state of emergency is declared, or if there is a call for international assistance.

The countries hit by the highest number of weather-related disasters over the past decade were the United States, with 472, China with 441, India with 288, the Philippines with 274 and Indonesia with 163. (Reporting by Tom Miles; Editing by Stephanie Nebehay and Alison Williams)

Quoting 683. Jedkins01:



Rex can be a stubborn young man.


Yeah but what you are seeing a feedback from the Gulf of Alaska low setting up shop. Once this Trough settles in across the NE Pacific then the southern jet gets invigorated. Basically we are seeing the El-Nino pattern emerge across North America.
Its fun watching these patterns start to connect. To me that is what is fascinating about weather how patterns thousands of miles away influence patterns across our part of the World.
Quoting 641. Neapolitan:

Once again, an ideologically-compromised website posts a lengthy, wandering diatribe about a tiny group of familiar denialists convening at an ALEC-allied symposium funded primarily by the fossil fuel industry to drone on and on while rehashing the same discredited and debunked nonsense that's been heard a thousand--a million--times before. And once again someone reads that diatribe, then breathlessly hurries over to this forum to post that article.

Sigh...

It used to be amazing how often that would happen. But now it's just wearisome.

That article was so crazy that I thought it was satire from The Onion at first.
Quoting 651. StormTrackerScott:

WSI is stating FL could see the Wettest December on record. WSI is also saying that the Northers US & Canada are in for a Historic December in terms of record heat. WOW!!!

Those bashing the CFSv2 are really in for disappointing times ahead across the Northern US as record heat takes hold. I can't believe the consistency on some of these models.

December precip


December Temps

warm and wet.. I can deal with that!
Quoting 649. weathermanwannabe:

You can see the precip forming to the East of the Sierra/Nevada mountains at the CA/NV border on the loop:







looks out window

Kinda cloudy, but not precip kind of clouds. I'm about 65 miles east of Reno.
Quoting 653. StormTrackerScott:

From WSI this morning. Good grief folks not looking like a good Winter for Northern Snow lovers.

BOTTOM LINE: December 2015 is expected to feature near record warm weather central-southern Canada in through portions of the northern U.S. On the contrast, cool and wet conditions favored across the South. The highly anomalous warmth in December that is anticipated to develop across North America is attributed to weather patterns driven by the strongest El Nino observed in our data archives.

Lake Michigan this Winter?



I'd be more concerned that this would keep the Great Lakes so warm that any arctic cold coming through would cause lake effect snows that would rival the late 1970's snowpocalypsos.
Quoting 689. nonblanche:



looks out window

Kinda cloudy, but not precip kind of clouds. I'm about 65 miles east of Reno.


Yup. the overhead satt loops can be deceiving at times. Shows plenty of upper level moisture but no singificant precip showing on the regional radar loop (it's just "up there" floating around in the cloud deck but not coming down whether as rain or snow):

Pacific Southwest sector loop



Letter to Rep. Lamar Mr. Smith.... Chairman, Science,Space and Technology Committee US House of Representatives.


Chairman of the House of Rep Space,Science & Technology Committee receives a scathing letter from a member of the committee.
A bit off topic but wondering if any Bloggers across North Florida - The Panhandle have been hearing the same thing. I am up every morning around 6:00 am in Tallahassee to walk the dog and I have heard on several mornings recently (about 5 now) the "rumble-roar" of a jet flying from East to West and it is not a commercial airliner or single military jet. Sounds to me like a multi-engine military plane. I am speculating, but flying in at that regular time (coming in from an early am or overnight flight) leads me to wonder if the folks out of Eglin are hosting some flight testing on some type of new plane that only flies at night (for security reasons) out over the Gulf or Atlantic then flies back in for a landing before the sun comes up......................Just asking.
Weather: Rex Block is a pretty common visitor to the Pac NW in winter. Not necessarily an El Nino effect. Sometimes Rex effects a "deep freeze" into areas NW of the H, bringing NE winds, blizzards and temps far below average to coastal areas.

Other: The SO2 effect on atmospheric CO2 study is interesting - maybe more so to those United Statesians who were sentient in the late 1960s and early 1970s and remember the initiation of EPA regulations. Basic but good EPA page on sulphur dioxide has some history and links to other basic info, for those who want to know more. Also wiki has pretty nice basic background info on this compound and its properties., including this...
"Sulfur dioxide (since Roman times) is still an important compound in winemaking, and is measured in parts per million in wine. It is present even in so-called unsulfurated wine at concentrations of up to 10 mg/L.[20] It serves as an antibiotic and antioxidant, protecting wine from spoilage by bacteria and oxidation. Its antimicrobial action also helps to minimize volatile acidity. Sulfur dioxide is responsible for the words "contains sulfites" found on wine labels...

"... In low concentrations, SO2 is mostly undetectable in wine, but at free SO2 concentrations over 50 ppm, SO2 becomes evident in the smell and taste of wine."


For those interested in global SO2, found a study about China SO2 emissions at the US EPA site (pdf file)...
The Trend of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in China after 2000

Happy Thanksgiving!
Bake pies. Eat lots. Take care your "whine" doesn't smell like rotten eggs.
And always remember the difference between potential and its cousin likelihood, and firm reality.
(edits for punctuation)
Soon-to-be declared Sandra winding up.
Thank you! Just wanted to make a quick post to share before I was leaving the house.
Quoting 684. Patrap:

Link for # 680

By Tom Miles

GENEVA, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Weather-related disasters such as floods and heatwaves have occurred almost daily in the past decade, almost twice as often as two decades ago, with Asia being the hardest hit region, a U.N. report said on Monday.

While the report authors could not pin the increase wholly on climate change, they did say that the upward trend was likely to continue as extreme weather events increased.

Since 1995, weather disasters have killed 606,000 people, left 4.1 billion injured, homeless or in need of aid, and accounted for 90 percent of all disasters, it said.

A recent peak year was 2002, when drought in India hit 200 million and a sandstorm in China affected 100 million. But the standout mega-disaster was Cyclone Nargis, which killed 138,000 in Myanmar in 2008.

While geophysical causes such as earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis often grab the headlines, they only make up one in 10 of the disasters trawled from a database defined by the impact.

The report, called "The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters," found there were an average of 335 weather-related disasters annually between 2005 and August this year, up 14 percent from 1995-2004 and almost twice as many as in the years from 1985 to 1994.

"While scientists cannot calculate what percentage of this rise is due to climate change, predictions of more extreme weather in future almost certainly mean that we will witness a continued upward trend in weather-related disasters in the decades ahead," the report said.

The release of the report comes a week before world leaders gather in Paris to discuss plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions and prevent world temperatures rising.

The United Nations says atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas that causes global warming, have risen to a new record every year for the past 30 years.

"All we can say is that certain disaster types are increasing. Floods are definitely increasing," said Debarati Guha-Sapir, professor at the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at UCL University in Louvain, Belgium, which co-authored the report.

"Whether it's increasing due to global warming, I think it's safe to say the jury's out on that. But rather than focus on the ifs, whys and wherefores, I think we should focus on how to manage floods."

Margareta Wahlstrom, head of the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), said floods were not just caused by heavy rain but also by poorly planned construction.

UNISDR estimates natural disasters of all types cause losses of $250 billion-$300 billion globally each year.

The report drew on a database of weather events that defines an event as a disaster if 10 or more people are killed, 100 or more are affected, a state of emergency is declared, or if there is a call for international assistance.

The countries hit by the highest number of weather-related disasters over the past decade were the United States, with 472, China with 441, India with 288, the Philippines with 274 and Indonesia with 163. (Reporting by Tom Miles; Editing by Stephanie Nebehay and Alison Williams)


Quoting 683. Jedkins01:



Rex can be a stubborn young man.

I believe that's actually an omega block since there's a ridge extending southwestward instead of low pressure. Those can be even more stubborn. The question is whether or not the jet can break through the ridge, or "underneath" the block. This is likely to happen eventually, maybe even this time, to set up the El Nino pattern of a stronger southern jet. Upstream, In Fa will be injecting its energy and moisture into a strong jet coming off of Asia, so that might be the kicker.


3 and 5 day progs for the jet stream. The block is cut off, but the southern flow is not quite linking yet. Surface observations and the position of the far northerly jet show Arctic air remains confined to the Yukon and far northern Canada.
Stung by Keystone reversal, Canadian province doubles down on renewable energy

After getting a “major wake-up call” from the U.S. government in its rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline project, the leader of the Canadian province of Alberta announced an aggressive climate-change plan Sunday that sets emission limits for the oil sands and begins the transition from coal to renewable electricity sources.

“This is the day we step up, at long last, to one of the world’s biggest problems — the pollution that is causing climate change,” Rachel Notley, the premier of the western Canadian province, said at the announcement in Alberta’s capital, Edmonton. “This is the day we stop denying there is an issue.”

Under the plan, as recommended by a Climate Change Advisory Panel appointed by Notley’s left-of-center New Democrat government after its election six months ago, Alberta plans to phase out all coal emissions by 2030 and replace two-thirds of coal-generated electricity with renewable energy sources, primarily wind power.

Alberta will also introduce an economy-wide carbon tax of 20 Canadian dollars per ton on carbon-dioxide emissions starting in 2017, increasing to 30 Canadian dollars per ton the year after — a price hike estimated to be slightly less than 2 cents per gallon of gasoline. The tax will apply to a wide range of carbon sources, including vehicles and home furnaces.

Currently, only companies producing more than 100,000 tons of carbon annually have to pay a levy.

Notley said the carbon-pricing strategy is similar to plans being implemented in California and Canada’s French-speaking province of Quebec.

Alberta’s government also plans to legislate an overall emission limit of 100 megatons for the oil sands, which currently generate 70 megatons of carbon a year.

President Obama and environmental groups have characterized Alberta crude oil as dirty, a point Notley addressed in her speech.

“That is the reputation that mistaken government policies have earned for us,” she said. “We are a landlocked energy producer with a single market, [which] just took a very hard run at us.”

“We need to do better, and we are going to do better.”

Environmental groups in both the U.S. and Canada praised Alberta’s landmark announcement.

“The sun is setting on the tar sands industry,” Stephen Kretzmann, executive director of a Washington-based clean-energy advocacy group, Oil Change International, said in a statement. “It is now possible to see a new day for Alberta where high-cost, high-carbon, high-risk tar sands are phased out in favor of clean, safe and renewable energy.”

He noted that Keystone XL, which would have helped deliver 800,000 barrels of crude oil a day from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast, “was the first oil project ever stopped because of its climate impacts — and this is just the beginning.”

Karen Mahon, director of ForestEthics Canada, said in a statement that by establishing a price and a regulatory limit on carbon pollution, along with transitioning from coal to renewable electricity, Alberta’s plan moves the province “from climate laggard to climate leader.”

She said 3 million barrels of crude oil per day, or half the amount that is currently extracted in Alberta, will stay in the ground as a result of the plan.

“This is a game changer for Alberta and Canada,” she said.

Notley will join her fellow premiers from the nine other Canadian provinces and three territories in Ottawa on Monday in their first meeting with newly elected Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The issue of climate change is expected to top the agenda as Trudeau and the premiers prepare to travel to the 21st session of the U.N. Conference of Parties (COP21) climate summit that begins Nov. 30 in Paris.

On Sunday, Canadian Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna called Alberta’s climate-change plan a “strong, positive step in the right direction” that helps send a “clear signal” that Canada is “back and ready” to play its part in addressing climate change.

In a prepared statement, she said that Canada would build on Alberta’s initiative to phase out coal and explore ways to help accelerate the reduction of coal power across the country.

Trudeau has committed to unveiling a pan-Canadian climate-change strategy within 90 days of the Paris climate conference, and McKenna said the Canadian government would work with its provincial and territorial counterparts to “put a price on carbon, reduce emissions and invest in clean technologies.”

Canadian Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, the only member of her party to hold a seat in the House of Commons, said in an interview that Alberta joins Canada’s three other large provinces, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, which are “generally on the right side of the page” in pushing Canada to embrace better national carbon-emission reduction targets on the eve of COP21.

But she also hoped that Alberta would phase out coal sooner than within 15 years and set a lower cap on greenhouse-gas emissions from the oil sands than the 100-megaton-target announced Sunday.

By comparison, Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, became the first North American jurisdiction to eliminate coal-fired electricity last year when it closed its last generating station.

Still, May believes that Alberta’s “progressive” climate-change strategy could help Trudeau take a leadership role at COP21 and demonstrate that Canada, which under Stephen Harper’s Conservative government withdrew from the Kyoto Accord in 2011 and set “the G7’s weakest and least ambitious” greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, can “inject new energy” into the negotiations and push other countries that have been deadlocked over their own targets.

During a joint news conference with U.S. President Obama last week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Manila, Trudeau said that one of his priorities is to “reassure Canadians and others that we are serious about meeting reduction targets, about being positive actors on the world stage in the fight against climate change, and demonstrating a future in renewables and smart investments around energy.”

At the same news conference, Obama told reporters that both the U.S. and Canada “have to shift increasingly away from carbon-emitting energy sources.”

Guly is a special correspondent


no lunch time update today

LOS ANGELES - NEW RECORD MOST 80 F DAYS IN A YEAR: 2015 is the calendar year that has the record most days with a maximum temperature in downtown Los Angeles CA of at least 80 F, with 162 such days as of November 22. The previous record holder was 1958, with 161 such days. 80 F is about 27 C.

Link
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