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Carbon Dioxide and Climate: What We Knew Then, What We Know Now

By: Bob Henson 7:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2015

We’re in the midst of a landmark period for our changing climate: the warmest year thus far in the warmest decade in global records of surface air temperature. This is also a crucial time for dialogue on climate change, as we approach a major UN meeting in Paris this December. At that meeting, delegates from around the world will try valiantly to hammer out the first entirely new global agreement in 17 years for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. We can expect a steady drumbeat of events building up to Paris. This week, Pope Francis is expected to bring his extraordinary message on climate change to the halls of Congress in an address on Wednesday, with a massive rally for climate action scheduled for Washington, D.C., that same day. The pope then heads to New York for a Thursday address at the United Nations, where more than 150 world leaders at a summit on sustainable development are set to adopt 17 ambitious goals, one of which is “take urgent action to confront climate change and its impacts.”

Motivating all this activity is the inexorable build-up of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in our global atmosphere as a result of burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas). When fossil fuels are burned, carbon from the fuel joins with an oxygen molecule from the air to create CO2. Because carbon dioxide is odorless and invisible, it’s all too easy to ignore. People had a harder time ignoring the “emissions” when our land-based transportation was conducted by horse-drawn wagon!

Despite its literal invisibility, carbon dioxide is all too real a substance, and fossil fuels add a tremendous amount of it to our atmosphere. Figure 1 shows how global CO2 emissions have unfolded over the last forty-plus years (up through 2013, the most recent year with complete data). The graphic, created by WU’s Jerimiah Brown using data from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, tells us much about the situation leading to the upcoming talks in Paris.


Figure 1. Annual emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel use and cement manufacture over the period 1970 - 2015. Cement production is only a small portion of this total, now around 5% annually. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground, using data from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Here is a high-resolution PDF version of the graphic.


A few things jump out from Figure 1:

--Global emissions are still climbing. In the year 2013, fossil fuel use and cement production put an estimated 35.3 billion metric tons of CO2 into the air (a metric ton is about 10% greater than a U.S. ton). That’s more than twice the amount emitted in 1970. Cement production is only a sliver of this total--historically about 2-3%, but now closer to 5%. Roughly 46% of the annual emissions shown in the graphic remain in the atmosphere each year, with the rest absorbed fairly promptly by oceans and land areas. As evident on the bottom half of Figure 1, emissions can drop slightly from one year to the next, as they did during the recessions of the early 1980s, early 1990s, and late 2000s. However, each recovery has led the way to still-higher global CO2 emissions. And even when the emissions do drop slightly in a given year, carbon dioxide continues to build up in the atmosphere, just as your credit-card balance goes up even when you cut back on how much you put on your card. This is why the amount of CO2 in the global atmosphere has increased every year since regular measurements began in 1958.

--Nation by nation, the United States no longer leads the pack. Back in the late 1990s, the U.S. was responsible for about 30% of global CO2 emissions, while China represented about 15%. Now the roles have switched as a result of China’s breakneck pace in manufacturing and development. In 2013, China was responsible for roughly 29% of global CO2 emissions, with the U.S. at around 15%. A substantial part of China’s CO2 emissions is the result of items being manufactured for sale in the United States and elsewhere; here’s a very helpful analysis from Carbon Brief on how this affects the global picture.

--Per capita, the U.S. is still in the driver’s seat. Because the United States has less than a quarter of China’s population, the amount of CO2 emitted per person is more than twice as much in the U.S. versus China. A few oil-producing nations in the Middle East have even higher per-capita rates, but their small populations means that they produce far less CO2 overall than the United States.

--Decades of emissions add up. When the atmosphere's stock of carbon dioxide goes up, it takes several hundred years for the oceans to absorb about 75 percent of this excess. The remaining 25 percent or so is stuck in the atmosphere for much longer--some of it for more than 100,000 years. This is why emissions from decades ago still have a big impact on climate. The list at upper left of Figure 1 shows the cumulative emissions from six top emitters, plus the 28 nations that now make up the European Union (EU28). Of the total amount of CO2 put into the air from 1970 to 2013, the US is responsible for about 22%; the EU28, about 18%; and China, about 15%. If you go back before 1970, the United States has an even larger share of the pie.

--Progress is possible. As a group, the EU28 nations are now emitting about 14% less CO2 than they were in 1990. That’s noteworthy when you consider that the EU28’s population and level of development is roughly comparable to the United States’. Back in the early 1980s, the US and EU28 had nearly identical CO2 emissions. By 2013, the US annual total was about 43% more than the EU28’s.

Commentary: what it means for the Paris talks

Whatever emerges in Paris is likely to be much different than the only global-scale agreement to date on carbon emissions: the Kyoto Protocol. Created in 1998, Kyoto was hamstrung by understandable tension between developed countries (the U.S. in particular) and developing nations (especially China and India). Many participants from around the globe felt it was unfair to restrict the right of less-prosperous countries to use fossil fuel to grow their economies after rich nations had had virtually unlimited access to it. The resulting agreement largely held back from emission restrictions for the developing world--and in response, the U.S. Congress voted 98-0 not to ratify Kyoto. The upshot is that most of the world’s economic activity since 1998 has taken place outside the bounds of the protocol, leaving the door wide open for huge global increases in CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, the European Union did even better than its Kyoto pledge, cutting its emissions of the top greenhouse gases 18% below 1990 levels by 2012.

Given the trends in Figure 1, a Kyoto-style approach clearly won’t work this time around. Any global agreement on emissions needs to include both the United States and China, as well as fast-growing India, in order to be effective. Yet it’s hard to imagine the current U.S. Congress agreeing to any globally constructed emissions cuts. Given this constraint and others, a new strategy has taken shape: each nation is coming up with its own nonbinding “pledges,” which will be enforced largely through peer pressure and perhaps eventually through economic tools such as tariffs and sanctions. An unprecedented agreement between China and the United States late in 2014 led to pledges by China to maximize its greenhouse gas emissions no later than 2030 (though this would still allow China’s total emissions to increase for more than a decade) and by the U.S. to reduce its emissions 12-19% below 1990 levels by 2025 (including emissions related to land use and forestry, which complicates the picture somewhat). Earlier this month, a group of some of the largest cities of China and the United States agreed on emission targets that in some cases are even more ambitious than the national goals.

Historic as they are, these examples above show how a patchwork of nation-by-nation agreements may end up resembling a crazy quilt. The big question facing delegates to Paris is whether such a global set of voluntary emission cuts, even if they’re adhered to, will be enough. There’s no single bright line that separates a livable climate from one riddled by disaster, but for more than 15 years, many scientists and policymakers have worked toward the commonly cited goal of no more than a 2°C global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. In June, an analysis by the International Energy Agency showed that the combined global pledges thus far would allow a temperature rise of 2.6°C by 2100 and 3.5°C in the 2200s. Such a rise would boost the odds of irreversible physical change, such as the unstoppable melting of ice sheets. It would also raise the risk of truly serious impacts on agriculture, water and food supply, and human health, raising the specter of increased conflict and climate refugees. Some analysts are already pointing to the role of record drought in Syria as a major factor in that nation's civil war and the subsequent flood of migrants. "News reports calling the refugees the first 'climate refugees' are getting too far ahead of the curve," asserted Andrew Freedman in Mashable. "But the ongoing humanitarian disaster provides a teaching opportunity for a time not too long from now when the first true climate refugees trigger a similar situation."

New discoveries of oil, coal, and gas in recent years have led to unexpectedly abundant supplies of fossil fuel. Yet if we want to be fairly confident of avoiding the 2°C benchmark, we can only burn a small fraction of this fossil fuel--only about 20%, according to one influential estimate that was reinforced by the IPCC in 2013. Any global agreement that keeps us near the 2°C goal will indirectly force the vast majority of the world’s proven oil, coal, and gas reserves to remain in the ground. Ultimately, this would be a conservative action in the truest sense--conserving fossil fuel--but some of the world’s largest and most powerful corporations would stand to lose trillions of dollars in value if this played out. We know that at least one major firm had some sense of the dilemma more than 30 years ago. An major investigative report by Inside Climate News, now being published as a multipart series, describes how Exxon carried out extensive observational and computational research, starting as far back as the 1970s, that pointed to the huge risks posed by increasing carbon dioxide.

We now know that massive amounts of energy can be produced apart from fossil fuels, with the costs steadily dropping. A group of eminent British scientists and policy leaders has called for a Global Apollo Program--an international 10-year R&D effort to make renewable energy more affordable than fossil fuel. Such efforts will go a long way toward giving any global agreement cobbled together in Paris a fighting chance to succeed.

Dr. Ricky Rood is attending a Climate Data Summit sponsored by the Risky Business project as part of Climate Week NYC. See his WU blog post from September 19 for more about the long and very winding road to the negotiations in Paris. My post with Jeff Masters from earlier today outlines current happenings in the tropics; we'll be back with more on Wednesday.

Bob Henson

Climate Change Politics Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This is what a Super El-Nino looks like. Looks like the heat has been turned up across nino 1&2.



WWB ongoing to further increase the strength of this El-Nino
I wish we could get to +3.5 degrees above normal in the Pacific Ocean. Warm the Oceans = warm the atmosphere
Quoting 3. WeatherConvoy:

I wish we could get to +3.5 degrees above normal in the Pacific Ocean. Warm the Oceans = warm the atmosphere


It appears the ONI is going to peak in the 2.5C to 2.6C range come NDJ timeframe.
Quoting 3. WeatherConvoy:

I wish we could get to +3.5 degrees above normal in the Pacific Ocean. Warm the Oceans = warm the atmosphere
What you're hoping for will cause disasters and famines in many parts of the world. Seems like a high price to pay just to see a statistic.
Not one to believe in the 384 hour GFS but hopefully it sticks, I am so so ready for some cooler days. Tired of the 90s and no rain. :)



The CPC has been RED for a while now in the long range.



Wilmington NC NWS


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THIS WKND AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL WEATHER
RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW WHICH IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING WELL WEST AS IT GETS
TRAPPED WITHIN A COL NEAR A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF LATCHED
ONTO THE HEAVY RAIN IDEA YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER
WEST MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE `FLOOD GATES`
TO OPEN TO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE.
I live in an area that is becoming warmer and wetter due to climate change.
Quoting 6. SouthCentralTx:

Not one to believe in the 384 hour GFS but hopefully it sticks, I am so so ready for some cooler days. Tired of the 90s and no rain. :)



The CPC has been RED for a while now in the long range.






As long as the pattern does not get locked in place. I'm not going through that God-awful 2013-2014 winter again... Way too cold and dry!

I like warm snowy winters with lots of storms.
Quoting 7. K8eCane:

Wilmington NC NWS


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THIS WKND AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL WEATHER
RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW WHICH IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING WELL WEST AS IT GETS
TRAPPED WITHIN A COL NEAR A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF LATCHED
ONTO THE HEAVY RAIN IDEA YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER
WEST MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE `FLOOD GATES`
TO OPEN TO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE.



Strong high to the north should create windy conditions for you guys too.
Quoting 6. SouthCentralTx:

Not one to believe in the 384 hour GFS but hopefully it sticks, I am so so ready for some cooler days. Tired of the 90s and no rain. :)



The CPC has been RED for a while now in the long range.






Hottest Sept since 2005. No decrease in dewpoints which we normally see this time of year.
The IOD has also been reacting to this strengthening El-Nino as well. A positive IOD is very important when an El-Nino gets this strong.

Thanks Mr. Henson; re-posting this info I posted yesterday from an on-line science site:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/09/climat e-change-could-cost-trillions-more-damages-because -thawing-arctic-permafrost


Climate change could cost trillions more in damages, because of thawing Arctic permafrost

As global warming thaws perpetually frozen Arctic land called permafrost (pictured), the greenhouse gases trapped within will escape, ramping up climate change’s economic toll by trillions of dollars, a new study finds. To make the calculations, researchers first determined how much carbon dioxide and methane the permafrost would release as the world warms. They used a model that estimates how climate factors like temperature affect absorption and release of these gases by land, plants, and microbes. They then fed the results from that model into a different model that estimates economic damages based on future greenhouse gas emissions. The model assumed that human activities by themselves would boost carbon dioxide levels 75% from today to 2100. Total damages without the permafrost emissions would be $326 trillion globally, the researchers found. With permafrost-related emissions included, however,additional damages ranged from $3 trillion to $166 trillion, depending on how much human emissions warmed the Arctic, the team reports online today in Nature Climate Change; the average value was $43 trillion. Aggressive cuts in human emissions could reduce that average price tag to around $6 trillion, the researchers suggest. 

The beautiful 97L



And Ida


Quoting 14. JrWeathermanFL:

The beautiful 97L



And Ida





I think Ida's center may be relocating...
I predict a hurricane will impact the east coast during the next 3 years.I called it first! so if it happens I get bragging rights on the blog!
This low due east of JAX is interesting. Looks to moving SSW



This low @ 31N & 77W is trying to separate from another low East of Hatteras.
Quoting 16. washingtonian115:

I predict a hurricane will impact the east coast during the next 3 years.I called it first! so if it happens I get bragging rights on the blog!


Self-fulfilling prophecy.
thanks bob nice update

let the climate chaos begin
It seems we are under the gun for a heavy rainfall event here in Coastal NC..also looks like our NWS is reading this blog with the superlatives used in today's discussion..

Latest discussion from NWS, Wilmington, NC

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD TO KICK
OFF AUTUMN IS MOUNTING CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED
BY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD...PRESSING A DAMMING WEDGE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. CONCURRENTLY A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW WILL
RETROGRADE AND FILL MOVING WSW ONTO THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOULD
HELP SPUR GOOD CHANCES OF STRATIFORM RAIN THU AFTN/NIGHT.

SEVERAL MODERATE LOBES OF H7-H5 VORTICITY ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE
ONSHORE THURSDAY WHICH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BECOME ELEVATED BY THURSDAY WITH DEEP
E-SE WIND FLOW SURFACE TO 400 MB. IT APPEARS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY COME INTO PLAY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THIS PERIOD AND MINIMUMS MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70
CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THIS WKND AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL WEATHER
RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW WHICH IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING WELL WEST AS IT GETS
TRAPPED WITHIN A COL NEAR A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF LATCHED
ONTO THE HEAVY RAIN IDEA YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER
WEST MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE `FLOOD GATES`
TO OPEN TO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

850MB U-WIND ANOMALIES REACH -4 SD`S (!) DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
(NEGATIVE SINCE WIND IS A VECTOR...THIS CAN STILL BE CONSIDERED A
POSITIVE SIGNAL) WHICH FLOODS MOISTURE RIGHT INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHERE PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2 INCHES...AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE
DEVELOPS AS A JET ENTRANCE REGION BLOSSOMS TO OUR NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHICH DRIVES
INCREASING WINDS...AND FORCES STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 310 AND
315 K ATOP THE INLAND WEDGE. ALL THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FRI..SAT...AND SUN...BEFORE A BACK DOOR FRONT
SINKS SOUTH AND THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS...CAUSING DRYING LOCALLY. WPC
QPF PAINTS 3-5" ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COAST...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER
AMOUNTS SW. SEE NO REASON TO MOVE AWAY FROM THESE FORECAST VALUES
FOR NOW BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THE FORECAST
I expect nothing out of Paris in December.

The changes are coming faster and faster and the only solution is to curb and cut Fossil Fuel Burning.

We had a good run here, so India, China, and the developing Nations with resources to burn, will continue and increase.

Until the driving force of the Planet becomes something other than, the gathering of wealth by Men and nations, nothing will change.

For that to happen it will take a Cataclysm or some external threat to the Planet.

We are the Cancer and the Patient is Earth.
Since Ida's circulation seems to be affecting the higher clouds, does that indicate reorganization?
Quoting 21. Patrap:

I expect nothing out of Paris in December.

The changes are coming faster and faster and the only solution is to curb and cut Fossil Fuel Burning.

We had a good run here, so India, China, and the developing Nations with resources to burn, will continue and increase.

Until the driving force of the Planet becomes something other than, the gathering of wealth by Men and nations, nothing will change.

For that to happen it will take a Cataclysm or some external threat to the Planet.

We are the Cancer and the Patient is Earth.



Hydrogen fusion reactors. That's what we need.





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015-


ORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LINGERING SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EXTENDING WEST FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ACTING AS A BOUNDARY OF SORTS, SEPARATING DRIER AIR OVER
AND NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA FROM HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVER-SO-SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THIS TIME AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE AS
WELL AS PROVIDE SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY, MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR OVER 2
INCHES.

FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE PATTERN, INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THERE WILL BE HIGHER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
POPS HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT LIGHT ENOUGH FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO
CAUSE CELLS TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COASTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TODAY, WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY
RATHER HIGH TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MIA/FTL AREA ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS
IN THE GULF AND ENHANCES SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE GRADUAL UPWARD TREND
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY AS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE
TROUGH STILL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY THURSDAY, FAIRLY UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION OF 60/70% POPS AREA-WIDE. INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR GENERAL
TSTMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ALSO LOWER THE MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID/UPPER
80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER GLADES COUNTY,
WITH 70S ELSEWHERE...THEN 70S AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY,
WITH ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE WEEKEND RIGHT NOW
LOOKS NOT AS WET AS THE WORK WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. PRETTY MUCH TYPICAL LATE SEPTEMBER/RAINY
SEASON POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR
WEATHER, IF AT ALL, NEXT WEEK. /MOLLEDA
97L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop


Quoting 25. FunnelVortex:



Hydrogen fusion reactors. That's what we need.
They will be here sooner than was expected .
Quoting 7. K8eCane:

Wilmington NC NWS


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THIS WKND AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL WEATHER
RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW WHICH IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING WELL WEST AS IT GETS
TRAPPED WITHIN A COL NEAR A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF LATCHED
ONTO THE HEAVY RAIN IDEA YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER
WEST MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE `FLOOD GATES`
TO OPEN TO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

It looks like 97L is going to be too weak to get that rain much further inland than you. The placement and track of the low/trough/whatever it will become would normally provide a decent easterly flow event for east Alabama, but it looks like a low currently right near the AL/GA/FL line is going to do more form than 97L. How have you been doing for rain so far? As long as you don't have saturated soil, this might be beneficial for your area. Flash flood guidance is so high here it would take a whopper storm to cause any serious problems.
Quoting 27. Patrap:

97L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop





Something subtropical?
Quoting 25. FunnelVortex:



Hydrogen fusion reactors. That's what we need.

They're only 20 years away.

They've always been 20 years away.
Quoting 90. sar2401:

I remember you talking about your hunting camp before. Today would be an awesome day for some field time. The current temperature is 76, which is the high of the day so far. It's been a long time since the temperature was in the mid-70's at two in the afternoon. Maybe a hopeful sign for the beginning of Autumn tomorrow.


Currently 86 here with a dewpoint of 68, quite sticky and uncomfortable outside, no rain yet to cool us down. 89 at our hunting camp with a dewpoint of 60. Looks like you got a nice cool down from your rain.
nice rare clear shot of Yellowstone area today on vis sats as of 3 48 edt

Quoting 28. hydrus:

They will be here sooner than was expected .


I hope so. Because a fusion reactor would produce more power than a fission reactor and with zero harmful or greenhouse emissions. Not to mention they are safer and won't create long-lasting radioactive isotopes or meltdowns.

It would produce clean green energy. And it would be a lot better of a solution than spamming those hideous wind farms all over the place. Can't imagine how much forest they would cut down for those things...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

FLZ070-071-073-222030-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR SOUTHWESTERN BROWARD...SOUTHEASTERN
COLLIER AND NORTHWESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

* AT 346 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF MONROE
STATION...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER
RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO
PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DADE-COLLIER TRAINING AIRPORT AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE.

LAT...LON 2591 8115 2609 8109 2602 8073 2583 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 282DEG 15KT 2596 8099

$$

GREGORIA
How much CO2 is released from the ocean floor?
Quoting 5. sar2401:

What you're hoping for will cause disasters and famines in many parts of the world. Seems like a high price to pay just to see a statistic.


Agreed. El Nino(s), the strong to super ones in particular, are known for causing devastation across the world. Would not want to see a high peak.
Quoting 21. Patrap:

I expect nothing out of Paris in December.

The changes are coming faster and faster and the only solution is to curb and cut Fossil Fuel Burning.

We had a good run here, so India, China, and the developing Nations with resources to burn, will continue and increase.

Until the driving force of the Planet becomes something other than, the gathering of wealth by Men and nations, nothing will change.

For that to happen it will take a Cataclysm or some external threat to the Planet.

We are the Cancer and the Patient is Earth.



Until the day comes that the world finds something cheaper then oil but is profitable at the same time what do you expect to hear? Talk is talk and that's all I see out of this, you can't act as if wealth is the reason behind all of this sure that money is nice. However if oil vanished the world would basically come to a halt today. So what are we going to do? Use Wind/Solar? I would love to be able to have a house that is 100% reliant on solar/wind, out here we certainly have the sunny days and out in these hills I certainly get some nice breezes throughout the year but the cost of it all to do isn't something we can all do.
Quoting 36. cajunkid:

How much CO2 is released from the ocean floor?


be more concern with the methane hydrates
there much more potent and will accelerate everything
10 times faster
Quoting 30. FunnelVortex:



Something subtropical?

This looks very subtropical for sure.... this low near NC/VA BORDER...
Quoting 25. FunnelVortex:



Hydrogen fusion reactors. That's what we need.
I'm having a deja vu moment here. Didn't the exact same exchange of posts happen yesterday? At any rate, fusion reactors have been on the drawings boards since I was a young man. I'm now officially elderly and have yet to see one in commercial operation. As Hydrus posted, we'll see a fusion reactor someday, just not one we built on purpose.
Quoting 41. sar2401:

I'm having a deja vu moment here. Didn't the exact same exchange of posts happen yesterday? At any rate, fusion reactors have been on the drawings boards since I was a young man. I'm now officially elderly and have yet to see one in commercial operation. As Hydrus posted, we'll see a fusion reactor someday, just not one we built on purpose.

And how old are u... ur very very wise
October 02, 2014 02:17pm ET

Even though scientists think plants produced most of the oxygen present on Earth, they suspected some oxygen may have existed before photosynthetic organisms arose, said Cheuk-Yiu Ng, a physical chemist at the University of California, Davis, and co-author of the study published today (Oct. 2) in the journal Science.

But, it was thought that the planet's oxygen (O2) formed from two oxygen atoms colliding and combining on some surface, not because the oxygen molecules split from carbon dioxide (CO2), Ng said.

When light breaks apart CO2, the molecule normally splits into carbon monoxide (CO) and an oxygen atom (O). One theory suggested carbon dioxide could potentially be stripped into molecular oxygen (O2) and carbon (C) instead, but "nobody had ever detected" such a process, Ng told Live Science.

Ng and his colleagues built a one-of-a-kind instrument to split up carbon dioxide, using ultraviolet light in a vacuum. The device consists of two lasers — one to split the CO2, and one to detect the fragments produced.

"This machine is unique in the world," Ng said.

When the researchers shone the first laser on the carbon dioxide, the second laser detected O2 molecules and carbon atoms, suggesting a small amount of carbon dioxide (about 5 percent) was turned into oxygen. Though small, that's enough to show that it's possible to produce oxygen from CO2 by a nonbiological process, Ng said.

-Thought this was an interesting article. 5%!! Wonder if it could be used to help large scale?
Quoting 41. sar2401:

I'm having a deja vu moment here. Didn't the exact same exchange of posts happen yesterday? At any rate, fusion reactors have been on the drawings boards since I was a young man. I'm now officially elderly and have yet to see one in commercial operation. As Hydrus posted, we'll see a fusion reactor someday, just not one we built on purpose.


Yeah, I had a Deja Vu yesterday as well...

And I think they are finally getting around to developing one.
Quoting 37. Astrometeor:



Agreed. El Nino(s), the strong to super ones in particular, are known for causing devastation across the world. Would not want to see a high peak.


Well it happening whether folks like it or not. Peak via ONI appears it might come in around the 2.5C to 2.6C range. I suspect all hell is going to break loose across the South this Winter.
Quoting 40. tiggerhurricanes2001:


This looks very subtropical for sure.... this low near NC/VA BORDER...


What are the chances of seeing a named subtropical storm out of this?
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



Well it happening whether folks like it or not. Peak via ONI appears it might come in around the 2.5C to 2.6C range. I suspect all hell is going to break loose across the South this Winter.
WOW Scott...
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



Well it happening whether folks like it or not. Peak via ONI appears it might come in around the 2.5C to 2.6C range. I suspect all hell is going to break loose across the South this Winter.


This will be a winter for me to look forward to. We will get some nice interesting big winter storms in my neck of the woods. And some interesting t-storms in the spring time for us as well.
Quoting 41. sar2401:

I'm having a deja vu moment here. Didn't the exact same exchange of posts happen yesterday? At any rate, fusion reactors have been on the drawings boards since I was a young man. I'm now officially elderly and have yet to see one in commercial operation. As Hydrus posted, we'll see a fusion reactor someday, just not one we built on purpose.


Yeah I remember reading we were a few years away from making them commercially viable..

in 1971 when I was in middle school..


Some things never change.. {sigh!}

Quoting 49. georgevandenberghe:



Yeah I remember reading we were a few years away from making them commercially viable..

in 1971 when I was in middle school..


Some things never change.. {sigh!}




These things take time. The media likes to make things seem like they are coming faster than they actually are.

They only started to work on one now. And the project is still in early stages.
Quoting 40. tiggerhurricanes2001:


This looks very subtropical for sure.... this low near NC/VA BORDER...
I don't know. Given the relatively low pressure at 1008 mb (not much weaker than Ida) and the disorganized state of the storm, the gale force winds already being reported makes this look more baroclinic to me. It might be able to develop some tropical characteristics before most of the mess drifts ashore but it won't have much time to do so. As you can see from the surface map, 97L is one of series of lows that have developed on a front/trough that stretches from near Greenland all the way to Central America. It's my guess that this massive trough will play big role in whatever does develop in the Gulf this weekend.

Quoting 11. SubtropicalHi:



Hottest Sept since 2005. No decrease in dewpoints which we normally see this time of year.


We're seeing decreases in both dewpoints and temperatures here in DC as the month progresses. Dewpoints are near climatological means but temperatures are above normal though not extremely so. It's the steadiness of the warmth that is getting to me.

Still it's clearly no longer summer. Instead warm stagnant early fall. 2005 was a very warm september for DC also.

Quoting 50. FunnelVortex:



These things take time. The media likes to make things seem like they are coming faster than they actually are.

They only started to work on one now. And the project is still in early stages.


They've been working on them since the late 60s and have successfully achieved fusion since I think the early 70s. But not enough to counter the power being fed into them for initial plasma synthesis and magnetic containment.
Not very helpful when it takes more power to run them than they put out.

Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



Well it happening whether folks like it or not. Peak via ONI appears it might come in around the 2.5C to 2.6C range. I suspect all hell is going to break loose across the South this Winter.

Bring some snow here to Savannah,GA STS please... lol
Quoting 47. Gearsts:

WOW Scott...
I'm looking forward to the series of "All Hell's Breaking Loose" headlined forecast discussions this winter. I don't really keep up with all the slang you youngsters use, but doesn't the term "emo" come into play somewhere? :-)
Quoting 46. FunnelVortex:



What are the chances of seeing a named subtropical storm out of this?

It's about 10/10 via NHC , BUT i say 30/30
Quoting 37. Astrometeor:



Agreed. El Nino(s), the strong to super ones in particular, are known for causing devastation across the world. Would not want to see a high peak.


Hope for the best, plan for the worst. I'm hoping for little snow, and weaker than normal arctic outbreaks, both are strong El Nino signatures in the Mid Atlantic. But if we do get snow, potential for an enormous dump is higher than in a normal winter.
Quoting 53. georgevandenberghe:



They've been working on them since the late 60s and have successfully achieved fusion since I think the early 70s. But not enough to counter the power being fed into them for initial plasma synthesis and magnetic containment.
Not very helpful when it takes more power to run them than they put out.




Well they have to keep trying. It's not going to work perfect right away.

It took Edison over 9000 tries to perfect the lightbulb.
Quoting 53. georgevandenberghe:



They've been working on them since the late 60s and have successfully achieved fusion since I think the early 70s. But not enough to counter the power being fed into them for initial plasma synthesis and magnetic containment.
Not very helpful when it takes more power to run them than they put out.


I graduated from high school in 1964. I recall vividly reading an article in Popular Science about that time regarding fusion and breeder reactors and how they were right around the corner. So was my flying car, and that hasn't shown up yet either. :-)
Quoting 55. sar2401:

I'm looking forward to the series of "All Hell's Breaking Loose" headlined forecast discussions this winter. I don't really keep up with all the slang you youngsters use, but doesn't the term "emo" come into play somewhere? :-)


The Farmers Almanac is just expecting it to freeze over.

Quoting 28. hydrus:

They will be here sooner than was expected .


That will never happen with cheap oil. The price of oil mandates the supply of new technology.
Quoting 60. georgevandenberghe:



The Farmers Almanac is just expecting it to freeze over.




The Farmers Almanac is about as right as an Alex Jones podcast.
Quoting 59. sar2401:

I graduated from high school in 1964. I recall vividly reading an article in Popular Science about that time regarding fusion and breeder reactors and how they were right around the corner. So was my flying car, and that hasn't shown up yet either. :-)


But we do have picturephones you can use out in the remote sticks and those weren't even on the Jetsons

Tangent gripe. I'm starting to see truck ads leading with how good the vehicle wi-fi is.

That AINT why I would buy a truck!! :-)
Quoting 58. FunnelVortex:



Well they have to keep trying. It's not going to work perfect right away.

It took Edison over 9000 tries to perfect the lightbulb.
I believe that increased efficiency and lower cost for solar and wind power over the long term is going to make fusion reactors, even if they work, not cost effective. They will remain an important but limited form of scientific experiment long after people reading this have gone to their final reward.
Quoting 59. sar2401:

I graduated from high school in 1964. I recall vividly reading an article in Popular Science about that time regarding fusion and breeder reactors and how they were right around the corner. So was my flying car, and that hasn't shown up yet either. :-)


While I think futurists are often ridiculous (especially with all this "singularity" mumbo jumbo) I think fusion reactors are a legitimate possibility.
Quoting 63. georgevandenberghe:



But we do have picturephones you can use out in the remote sticks and those weren't even on the Jetsons

Tangent gripe. I'm starting to see truck ads leading with how good the vehicle wi-fi is.

That AINT why I would buy a truck!! :-)


And heaven forbid, it might not come with usb ports.
Quoting 63. georgevandenberghe:



But we do have picturephones you can use out in the remote sticks and those weren't even on the Jetsons

Tangent gripe. I'm starting to see truck ads leading with how good the vehicle wi-fi is.

That AINT why I would buy a truck!! :-)
I wonder if we're the only people left that feel having an internet enabled vehicle really doesn't seem like that good an idea? Remember "war driving" back in the early days of wifi? It should make a big comeback in about three years at this rate.
Quoting 57. georgevandenberghe:



Hope for the best, plan for the worst. I'm hoping for little snow, and weaker than normal arctic outbreaks, both are strong El Nino signatures in the Mid Atlantic. But if we do get snow, potential for an enormous dump is higher than in a normal winter.
I highly doubt we see something like 2010 again.
I picked up a surprising (didn't think it was going to rain today) .55" just a while ago.
That brings me up to 9.43" for the month here at the house. I'm just S.E. of Fort Myers.
Quoting 42. tiggerhurricanes2001:


And how old are u... ur very very wise
According to my brain, I'm about 35. According to the calendar, I turn 70 in a couple months. You'll find out more about the brain-body disconnect as you acquire the wisdom of old age. Sometimes, it's not all it's cracked up to be. :-)
Quoting 59. sar2401:

I graduated from high school in 1964 B.C. I recall vividly reading an article in Popular Science about that time regarding fusion and breeder reactors and how they were right around the corner. So was my flying car, and that hasn't shown up yet either. :-)


Fixed it for you. :)
Ida is getting sheared. - 97L looks like a meso low



Quoting 49. georgevandenberghe:



Yeah I remember reading we were a few years away from making them commercially viable..

in 1971 when I was in middle school..


Some things never change.. {sigh!}




It was 20 years away in 1955 when I was in high school and nuclear was going to produce electricity that was practically free.
Quoting 70. sar2401:

According to my brain, I'm about 35. According to the calendar, I turn 70 in a couple months. You'll find out more about the brain-body disconnect as you acquire the wisdom of old age. Sometimes, it's not all it's cracked up to be. :-)

I turn 68 in December and also suffer from the brain-body disconnect... I still wonder how all my classmates from school got to be old people and I'm stuck in this time warp where I'm still exactly as I was back then. Even my 45 year old daughter all of a sudden is older than I am. Amazing.
Quoting 25. FunnelVortex:



Hydrogen fusion reactors. That's what we need.
And flux capacitors...
Quoting 74. hydrus:




It looks like Ida's center relocated a bit to the ESE.

Possibly reorganizing.
Quoting 4. StormTrackerScott:



It appears the ONI is going to peak in the 2.5C to 2.6C range come NDJ timeframe.
Hi Scott. Just a fyi. I was in Orlando this weekend. I saw a lot of signs for local news stations touting "Stormtracker13". It seems obvious they were trying to utilize your name. You may have some legal recourse.
Quoting 73. JohnLonergan:



It was 20 years away in 1955 when I was in high school and nuclear was going to produce electricity that was practically free.




Cant help but wonder what electric would be like if Tesla completed his work with Morgan.

Link
Quoting 75. HarryMc:


I turn 68 in December and also suffer from the brain-body disconnect... I still wonder how all my classmates from school got to be old people and I'm stuck in this time warp where I'm still exactly as I was back then. Even my 45 year old daughter all of a sudden is older than I am. Amazing.
Ahem. Yes, my son just turned 45 and now looks amazingly old. The really scary part is I was shaving this morning and realized the guy staring back at me was my old man. I looked up his picture when he was about my age and I could pass for him. Hair is growing from all kinds of strange places on my head but not where it's supposed to be growing. Even my nose is growing. I'll soon be some kind of mutant freak at this rate. :-)
Quoting 55. sar2401:

I'm looking forward to the series of "All Hell's Breaking Loose" headlined forecast discussions this winter. I don't really keep up with all the slang you youngsters use, but doesn't the term "emo" come into play somewhere? :-)


I'm looking forward to it also, I hope we have a cool stormy winter this year. I love it when I'm hunting and it rains, we build 5' x 5' shooting houses propped up on telephone poles with a metal roof. They are sturdy and a great place to be for watching storms roll through! If it is going to rain real bad you want to stay on the high side of the creek, I've seen the creek overflow it's banks and send 3' of water running under a couple of the shooting houses. They're 15' off the ground so no danger while you're in them but getting back to the cabin would be impossible until the water went back down!
Quoting 79. hydrus:




Cant help but wonder what electric would be like if Tesla completed his work with Morgan.

Link


It would possibly have been pretty terrifying...
Quoting 73. JohnLonergan:



It was 20 years away in 1955 when I was in high school and nuclear was going to produce electricity that was practically free.

Yeah! Remember that? No meters, everything in the house run by electricity, including heated floors and dozens of weird appliances. I just got my bill from Alabama Power. They never got the memo about the "free" part.
Quoting 70. sar2401:

According to my brain, I'm about 35. According to the calendar, I turn 70 in a couple months. You'll find out more about the brain-body disconnect as you acquire the wisdom of old age. Sometimes, it's not all it's cracked up to be. :-)


Ever hear about the ladder theory in that regard? I had a physics prof explain it and found it quite comical.
Quoting 71. Astrometeor:



Fixed it for you. :)
You little rat you....:-)
maybe some strong to severe t-storms possible in central to southern florida. lapse rates look decent -8 to -10 degrees C. pretty good instability
Quoting 84. win1gamegiantsplease:



Ever hear about the ladder theory in that regard? I had a physics prof explain it and found it quite comical.
No, I'm about to Google it. Anything that could help explain why all this happening to me would be a great help, especially if it's comical.
Funny how Mr Henson, Masters (and most others) completely ignore the largest cause of global warming... human overpopulation. Apparently that's not politically correct or productive for the agenda. Can't wait to see the governmental controls and taxes forthcoming. Like buying carbon credits to go on vacation :)

Earth is like a giant tetherball that's about to smack the pole. Enjoy the ride folks!!

Quoting 80. sar2401:

Ahem. Yes, my son just turned 45 and now looks amazingly old. The really scary part is I was shaving this morning and realized the guy staring back at me was my old man. I looked up his picture when he was about my age and I could pass for him. Hair is growing from all kinds of strange places on my head but not where it's supposed to be growing. Even my nose is growing. I'll soon be some kind of mutant freak at this rate. :-)


I'm 45, you sure are painting a great picture of getting older LOL! I still think I'm in my late 20's, my wife of 24 years thinks I'm crazy.
Quoting 55. sar2401:

I'm looking forward to the series of "All Hell's Breaking Loose" headlined forecast discussions this winter. I don't really keep up with all the slang you youngsters use, but doesn't the term "emo" come into play somewhere? :-)


It's called hype...
Quoting 86. WeatherConvoy:

maybe some strong to severe t-storms possible in central to southern florida. lapse rates look decent -8 to -10 degrees C. pretty good instability
Probably a better chance in South Dakota. Yet another sign that some severe weather happens outside Florida.

Quoting 89. 69Viking:



I'm 45, you sure are painting a great picture of getting older LOL! I still think I'm in my late 20's, my wife of 24 years thinks I'm crazy.
If you're lucky, your wife of 50 years will still think you're crazy. :-)
Quoting 69. Sfloridacat5:

I picked up a surprising (didn't think it was going to rain today) .55" just a while ago.
That brings me up to 9.43" for the month here at the house. I'm just S.E. of Fort Myers.
How do you guys keep doing that down there? We had a lousy half inch of rain and all the hams were on the radio talking about this big storm we were having. With the half inch, I'm now up to 1.16" for the month.
Quoting 89. 69Viking:



I still think I'm in my late 20's, my wife of 24 years thinks I'm crazy.


She's right and you're thinking way too young to realize it. :)
Quoting 87. sar2401:

No, I'm about to Google it. Anything that could help explain why all this happening to me would be a great help, especially if it's comical.


Your reference frame of time prior to hitting mid-age is like raising a long multi-position ladder from the ground up to the side of the house to fix the roof. You don't rush into it, you slowly bring it up and find the best place to lean it and safely climb up.

Past middle age is like you stepping off the ladder and onto the roof to do repairs, then some punk neighborly kids come and knock the ladder down in one swift push. Then you try to climb down on the eaves, slip, and conk!

My professor explained it better, but essentially time flies by once you hit middle-age and your memory jogs, while when you're younger you have a better sense of time pertaining memory and being able to place a date on it.
Evening all, another round of heavy rain again tonight. My folks called me today wondering if this rain pattern will continue. They have a drainage canal next to their property, while there are flood gates, they are convinced they haven't been used yet because the water level is quite high. It's about at its highest point in around four years. If enough rain falls in a certain period of time, say 10 inches in a day (not unheard of in Florida) from a tropical disturbance, not even the flood gates could help preventing it from over topping the banks which it was done three times before. Two of those three times the canal water went through the whole neighborhood.
We have rain AND crazy thunder in the pan handle. Haven't seen that in a while ;)
Quoting 97. csmda:

We have rain AND crazy thunder in the pan handle. Haven't seen that in a while ;)


STS posted the GFS rainfall total forecast and it looked like it would be wet in NW FL, for a change.
I don't know about you guys but I'll be watching Ida tonight...
The GEM never fails to entertain
Quoting 100. Sfloridacat5:

The GEM never fails to entertain



But not enlighten!
Quoting 100. Sfloridacat5:

The GEM never fails to entertain



I'm convinced. The CMC hates NOLA.
103. csmda
It was a short lived rain.
I am here because weather events have played a dramatic part in my life. I went from the blizzard of 1966 to riding out Camille three years later. I went through the Hurricanes of Florida in 2004. I saw the power of Katrina as she made here way up the Gulf. I rode through the Tornadoes of April 27, 2011. Is it just bad luck or does extreme weather just follow me. I guess it's a little of both. As we approach over 10 years since a major Hurricane has hit Florida I seem cheated. I love to track a Hurricane as it may approach my location. Each year at this time I have a love hate relationship with the tropics. Call it what you may but having a major Hurricane headed your way is like nothing else matters, and I guess it doesn't. I know I am not the only one who feels this way. Just wanted to speak my mind. Thanks
Watchin that apendage.

Quoting 93. sar2401:

How do you guys keep doing that down there? We had a lousy half inch of rain and all the hams were on the radio talking about this big storm we were having. With the half inch, I'm now up to 1.16" for the month.


An estimated 18.2" over the past 30 days just to my south in Collier County. The heaviest precipitation seems to have been about 20-30 miles inland from the southwest coast.
Hialeah is getting walloped right now. Looks like 6 inches have fallen in the last couple hours!
Does the CMC not realize tomorrow is the first day of autumn?
We'll be looking for a nice cool front about then down here...
Quoting 104. frank727:

I am here because weather events have played a dramatic part in my life. I went from the blizzard of 1966 to riding out Camille three years later. I went through the Hurricanes of Florida in 2004. I saw the power of Katrina as she made here way up the Gulf. I rode through the Tornadoes of April 27, 2011. Is it just bad luck or does extreme weather just follow me. I guess it's a little of both. As we approach over 10 years since a major Hurricane has hit Florida I seem cheated. I love to track a Hurricane as it may approach my location. Each year at this time I have a love hate relationship with the tropics. Call it what you may but having a major Hurricane headed your way is like nothing else matters, and I guess it doesn't. I know I am not the only one who feels this way. Just wanted to speak my mind. Thanks


I've been threw quite a few hurricanes living in south Florida my whole life I definitely understand what you mean this drought has been such a bummer the thrill and excitement when a storm is coming is just unreal doesn't even matter how strong t.s or cat 3 really we've just gotten extremely lucky that fact it's been 10 years in south Florida is insane



i see three lows now!!!
I realize its too far out to really know much, but anyone have thoughts on the potential GOM system next week? I'm supposed to be driving down to Tampa from Charlotte next Thursday so will definitely be keeping an eye on the gulf.
The Wishcasters Anonymous meeting starts at 8EST Tuesday in Virtual Room 203, second door on the left.
Good to see some admitting that they're powerless against the wish.


Multiple centers
Quoting 111. hurricanes2018:




i see three lows now!!!


For a potential tropical system three lows are not better than one.
The laws of physics can be broken. I just proved a human can scream louder than the sound of thunder.


Quoting 112. CarolinaHurricanes87:

I realize its too far out to really know much, but anyone have thoughts on the potential GOM system next week? I'm supposed to be driving down to Tampa from Charlotte next Thursday so will definitely be keeping an eye on the gulf.


It is drawing a lot interest with a lot of the forecasters. If something were to develop it could be anywhere so keep an eye open during the weekend.


Ex-Malia
The moon is getting closer to the earth at 160 mph now.
Quoting 116. Grothar:

The laws of physics can be broken. I just proved a human can scream louder than the sound of thunder.





I proved that when I was putting on some jeans and there was a cockroach inside one of the legs....
18Z GFS shows a 1006 mb low in the southern GOM at 162 hours.
NWS NOLA/Slidell....



Long term...

Heading into the weekend...both the Euro and GFS indicate that
both upper level low pressure systems will both features will
gradually form into one larger...but still fairly weak...upper
level trough extending across the western Gulf and the forecast
area. At the same time...over Florida and the southeast
Gulf...upper level ridging will remain in control. The models both
indicate that some increasing middle-level convergence will begin to
develop along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Theta-E values will
increase dramatically in this area of enhanced convergence...and
expect to see an increase in cloud cover and convective coverage
for both Saturday and Sunday. With rain chances on the
increase...have also bumped temperatures down a few degrees into
the middle 80s for the weekend. With precipitable water values well above
climatological norms at around 2 inches...there could the
potential for some locally heavy rainfall to occur in a few
locations. This will be most likely in areas where heavier
convection repeatedly develops over the same area.

Conditions look to turn more unsettled heading into early next
week. Overall confidence in the development of a possible tropical
low over the Gulf of Mexico has increased this afternoon...as both
the GFS and the Euro show a feature forming. However...this system
has not formed at this time...so overall uncertainty remains
higher than average. Unfortunately...there is also a great amount
of disagreement in the overall synoptic pattern between the models
concerning the northern stream pattern. Both models indicate that
an upper level low will continue to linger over Texas...and
ridging will continues over Florida on Monday and Tuesday.
However...the Euro solution has a strong trough develop over the
eastern Seaboard...and ridging form over the plains states. This
pattern will tend to keep any low in the Gulf farther away from
the central Gulf Coast...as the low would be trapped beneath the
ridging to the north over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Conversely...the GFS keeps ridging in place over the eastern
Seaboard...and has a trough axis descending into the Central
Plains states. This pattern will tend to pull the low in the Gulf
farther to the north...and the GFS has the low approaching the
central Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time...have
decided to go with a blended solution...and have increasing rain
chances and stronger winds of around 20 miles per hour impacting the coastal
waters and immediate coastal zones in Louisiana on Monday and
Tuesday. The ultimate path of this feature will be highly
dependent on the overall synoptic pattern that develops north of
the forecast area.

&&

Aviation...
I think Ida will have the most ACE of any storm this year.
HUGE lightning here in Laud by the sea!!!
Quoting 108. tkeith:

Does the CMC not realize tomorrow is the first day of autumn?
We'll be looking for a nice cool front about then down here...


I wish. Going to be muggy all week.
This upcoming pattern is very reminiscent of TS Debby in 2012. A ridge developing over the Central Plains and a trough digging down along the East Coast. Placement of any low that forms will be the key to whether we see a northeast movement across FL. as it gets caught up in the trough, or a west to northwest movement towards Texas under the counter-clockwise flow along the ridge. However, all interests along the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on this next week.
18Z GFS is up to 204 hours and it does nothing with the low in the GOM.
Quoting 29. sar2401:

It looks like 97L is going to be too weak to get that rain much further inland than you. The placement and track of the low/trough/whatever it will become would normally provide a decent easterly flow event for east Alabama, but it looks like a low currently right near the AL/GA/FL line is going to do more form than 97L. How have you been doing for rain so far? As long as you don't have saturated soil, this might be beneficial for your area. Flash flood guidance is so high here it would take a whopper storm to cause any serious problems.


Not a drop of rain yet. Heavy looking clouds, but none of the wet stuff thus far
Quoting 128. K8eCane:



Not a drop of rain yet. Heavy looking clouds, but none of the wet stuff thus far


well its not supposed to start raining here until tomorrow per the NWS discussion..

BASICALLY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD THE LOW
WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THUS INTENSIFYING THE GRADIENT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY BUT MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONCURRENTLY A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW WILL
RETROGRADE AND FILL MOVING WSW ONTO THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOULD
HELP SPUR GOOD CHANCES OF STRATIFORM RAIN THU AFTN/NIGHT.
Quoting 124. Camerooski:

HUGE lightning here in Laud by the sea!!!

We had the same lightning in West Broward.
It was hugely MODERATE(at best), and the accompanying thunder was weak to moderately BOOMING.
At this point we're down to a RELENTLESS drizzle which if it keeps up for 2-3 more weeks will start to maybe FLOOD THE AREA.
18z Navgem cranks up a low off the Carolinas and sends it north..

Quoting 121. Sfloridacat5:

18Z GFS shows a 1006 mb low in the southern GOM at 162 hours.
i hope not!!
Quoting 59. sar2401:

I graduated from high school in 1964. I recall vividly reading an article in Popular Science about that time regarding fusion and breeder reactors and how they were right around the corner. So was my flying car, and that hasn't shown up yet either. :-)

The future ain't what it used to be
Ryan Maue retweeted Angela Fritz

Getting some excellent upstream obs as Pope's plane samples tropical disturbance using recon pattern.

@angelafritz

Pope's flight looks like its been put into a hold pattern over North Carolina, just south of Greenville.
Quoting 135. ACSeattle:


The future ain't what it used to be


perfect...did you think of that all by yourself? Or should we attribute that to someone else.
Quoting 136. ncstorm:

Ryan Maue retweeted Angela Fritz

Getting some excellent upstream obs as Pope's plane samples tropical disturbance using recon pattern.

@angelafritz

Pope's flight looks like its been put into a hold pattern over North Carolina, just south of Greenville.



Is that THE pope?
Where is he going?
Quoting 138. K8eCane:



Is that THE pope?

I believe it's the Pope
Quoting 131. CosmicEvents:


We had the same lightning in West Broward.
It was hugely MODERATE(at best), and the accompanying thunder was weak to moderately BOOMING.
At this point we're down to a RELENTLESS drizzle which if it keeps up for 2-3 more weeks will start to maybe FLOOD THE AREA.


Camerooski does have enthusiasm. Put that against the dead serious Taz and we have a pretty interesting blog. THE blob expert here too, we tolerate Sar.........he knows too much. :) and a potential Gulf disturbance. Been a pretty good season here. Especially when Florida was UTG earlier in the season. Place went nuts.
Quoting 135. ACSeattle:


The future ain't what it used to be


That's a Yogi Berra quote.
I need to start watching the nightly news. Had no idea the pope was in USA
Quoting 88. SPadre:

Funny how Mr Henson, Masters (and most others) completely ignore the largest cause of global warming... human overpopulation. Apparently that's not politically correct or productive for the agenda. Can't wait to see the governmental controls and taxes forthcoming. Like buying carbon credits to go on vacation :)

Earth is like a giant tetherball that's about to smack the pole. Enjoy the ride folks!!




Yes, very funny. Mr. Henson and Dr. Masters must be in on "the agenda" or just haven't "woken up" right?
Sorry, I am gonna go with the properties of molecules over conspiracy theory.
Greenhouse gasses are the largest contributor to global warming, not a population number. If the population was reduced, (who and how that happens?) yet more greenhouse gasses overall are released, global warming increases. That is simple math and physics. The two aren't mutually exclusive, but it is the "greenhouse effect" caused by greenhouse gasses that are the largest contributor to global warming. I think Mr. Henson explained it nicely.
Who believes we're going to keep, as a world, the majority of remaining fossil fuels in the ground? China and India are growing, third world is growing, this trend leads to an increase in CO2 for seen future with millions of additional cars going on the road in third world countries. We will in the next two decades come with the grips that this is happening, it's changing the world and now we have to react to it. React, we can't stop it..............we're not even headed in the right direction yet.
Quoting 116. Grothar:

The laws of physics can be broken. I just proved a human can scream louder than the sound of thunder.



Creator is responsible for all physical laws, but is beyond them.....like some celestial architect.
Quoting 144. DeepSeaRising:

Who believes we're going to keep, as a world, the majority of remaining fossil fuels in the ground? China and India are growing, third world is growing, this trend leads to an increase in CO2 for seen future with millions of additional cars going on the road in third world countries. We will in the next two decades come with the grips that this is happening, it's changing the world and now we have to react to it. React, we can't stop it..............we're not even headed in the right direction yet.


The question answers itself.
Thanks for bringing some humor Chicklit. Nice to see you again.
Quoting 146. TheBigBanana:



The question answers itself.


Indeed, burn only 20% of the remaining fossil fuels. ROFL. Then acknowledging that, we must say that we are in dire trouble. And the price tag is big for action and inaction. More so for inaction. Good luck finding the political will world wide to do the impossible. Going to moon was impossible at one point. We are smart enough worldwide to fix this. But do we have the will and truly see what's coming if we don't?
Ida's convection split in two.
New convection close to COC.

Ida isn't finished.

Why is the probability of development for the low offshore the Carolinas so low? Shear?
Quoting 144. DeepSeaRising:

Who believes we're going to keep, as a world, the majority of remaining fossil fuels in the ground? China and India are growing, third world is growing, this trend leads to an increase in CO2 for seen future with millions of additional cars going on the road in third world countries. We will in the next two decades come with the grips that this is happening, it's changing the world and now we have to react to it. React, we can't stop it..............we're not even headed in the right direction yet.


Why single out China and India? If both did not exist at all fossil fuels would still be extracted. Maintaining our way of lives as Americans is enough to do it way past the point of no return. I don't blame the third world, as you put it, for putting cars on the road and developing industrially. They just want what we already have and take for granted. We all live on the same planet and suffer the same fate in the end.
Quoting 151. wartsttocs:



Why single out China and India? If both did not exist at all fossil fuels would still be extracted. Maintaining our way of lives as Americans is enough to do it way past the point of no return. I don't blame the third world, as you put it, for putting cars on the road and developing industrially. They just want what we already have and take for granted. We all live on the same planet and suffer the same fate in the end.


And an Amen indeed. Don't disagree.
Quoting 150. TheBigBanana:

Why is the probability of development for the low offshore the Carolinas so low? Shear?


More of the fact there are three lows in that area.
Quoting 150. TheBigBanana:

Why is the probability of development for the low offshore the Carolinas so low? Shear?


Unenthused by Jeb Bush's visit. No ban please....come on that's funny.
Quoting 152. DeepSeaRising:



And an Amen indeed. Don't disagree.


Word
Quoting 153. FunnelVortex:



More of the fact there are three lows in that area.
I noted that in #115. Still, over the Gulf stream in September things can happen quickly, I was wondering if there was another reason odds of development are so low.
157. beell
Quoting 137. Chicklit:



perfect...did you think of that all by yourself? Or should we attribute that to someone else.


Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana.
Quoting 157. beell:



Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana.
Don't slip on my peel, beell! ;)
Quoting 151. wartsttocs:



Why single out China and India? If both did not exist at all fossil fuels would still be extracted. Maintaining our way of lives as Americans is enough to do it way past the point of no return. I don't blame the third world, as you put it, for putting cars on the road and developing industrially. They just want what we already have and take for granted. We all live on the same planet and suffer the same fate in the end.
Not to mention both of those countries have well over a Billion people. We have it good here in the U.S...I will never take it for granted.
Quoting 157. beell:



Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana.


The ships hung in the air much the same way that bricks don't.
Quoting 151. wartsttocs:



Why single out China and India? If both did not exist at all fossil fuels would still be extracted. Maintaining our way of lives as Americans is enough to do it way past the point of no return. I don't blame the third world, as you put it, for putting cars on the road and developing industrially. They just want what we already have and take for granted. We all live on the same planet and suffer the same fate in the end.

There may be light at the end of the tunnel. The price of solar PV modules is already below $0.50/Watt and continuing to drop. The price of batteries continues to drop as well. When the Tesla battery gigafactory comes on line in 2017 expect another drop in battery prices. It won't be long before it's cheaper to own an electric car than an IC engine car. Some potential coal fired power plants have already been cancelled because they didn't figure they could compete economically with solar PV in the future.

The real question is how fast we can transform our civilization's energy systems. The faster it happens the less damage there will be from anthropogenic global warming.
Quoting 156. TheBigBanana:

I noted that in #115. Still, over the Gulf stream in September things can happen quickly, I was wondering if there was another reason odds of development are so low.


has to attain tropical charectaristics before it can develop tropically plus shear



Wiiiindy
Quoting 109. Austin72893:



I've been threw quite a few hurricanes living in south Florida my whole life I definitely understand what you mean this drought has been such a bummer the thrill and excitement when a storm is coming is just unreal doesn't even matter how strong t.s or cat 3 really we've just gotten extremely lucky that fact it's been 10 years in south Florida is insane
You might have forgotten that South Florida went 25-seasons without a Hurricane 1967 to 1991. And don't anyone tell me about Hurricane Floyd in 1987 because that was a piece of garbage. David in 1979 did not really produce any hurricane force winds south of Palm Beach. I agree with everything you said but sometimes we can go quite a number of years without a hit. The 1940s was the best time to live in south Florida if you like hurricanes. Ten hits between 1941 and 1950. Can you imagine what this blog would have looked like during that period. I think this blog would have over heated.
Quoting 162. riverat544:


There may be light at the end of the tunnel. The price of solar PV modules is already below $0.50/Watt and continuing to drop. The price of batteries continues to drop as well. When the Tesla battery gigafactory comes on line in 2017 expect another drop in battery prices. It won't be long before it's cheaper to own an electric car than an IC engine car. Some potential coal fired power plants have already been cancelled because they didn't figure they could compete economically with solar PV in the future.

The real question is how fast we can transform our civilization's energy systems. The faster it happens the less damage there will be from anthropogenic global warming.


With a respectful tone, I will leave optimism to the optimists.

AL102015 - Tropical Storm IDA
2km Natural Color Imagery
Green Estimated - Time of Latest Image: 20150922 1625
This is for Sar
This is the best explanation for time moving faster as you get older.
It is an awesome explanation.

"Have you ever observed that time seems to be going by faster as you get older?

There's a reason that one summer seems to stretch out forever when you're a kid, but zips by before you know it when you're 30. That reason is perspective, as a gorgeous interactive visualization, by Austrian designer Maximilian Kiener, demonstrates.

When you're one year old, a year is literally forever to you -- it's all the time that you've ever known. But as you grow older, one year is a smaller and smaller fraction of your total life. It's like watching something shrink in your rear view mirror.

This idea has stunning implications. It means that parents actually see their children grow up much faster than children perceive themselves to be."

Read the rest here with a great visual.

Link
That about covers it. Did I miss anywhere in the GOM? :P

Dry air around Ida...

Sky is lightning up looking toward the East Coast of FL. Nice show!
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972015 09/22/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 37 34 28 22 17 18 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 37 29 28 28 29 29 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 27 28 28 29 29 29 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP

Ships
maybe it has trop. charectaristics already
Doesnt have time to do much before it collides with land though according to NHC
thought the group may be interested to know the weather here in Saint Augustine is akin to a Nor Easter. This afternoon it was relatively stable ...this evening.. clouds are passing the moon quickly and we have a very stiff N.E breeze. Considering the invest offshore...I am interested in opinions from everyone. My casual observation...something is brewing...not saying bad or tropical ...just not your every day normal weather here. So what say all...typical n.easter pattern or something more interesting to watch? BTW..the air is actually pleasant so no complaints or worries ...yet!
Quoting 173. cameronstaugustine:

thought the group may be interested to know the weather here in Saint Augustine is akin to a Nor Easter. This afternoon it was relatively stable ...this evening.. clouds are passing the moon quickly and we have a very stiff N.E breeze. Considering the invest offshore...I am interested in opinions from everyone. My casual observation...something is brewing...not saying bad or tropical ...just not your every day normal weather here. So what say all...typical n.easter pattern or something more interesting to watch? BTW..the air is actually pleasant so no complaints or worries ...yet!


Been feeling that way here all day. (Wilmington NC) I dont know Nor'easter or trop system, its been windy as shell
Quoting 162. riverat544:


There may be light at the end of the tunnel. The price of solar PV modules is already below $0.50/Watt and continuing to drop. The price of batteries continues to drop as well. When the Tesla battery gigafactory comes on line in 2017 expect another drop in battery prices. It won't be long before it's cheaper to own an electric car than an IC engine car. Some potential coal fired power plants have already been cancelled because they didn't figure they could compete economically with solar PV in the future.

The real question is how fast we can transform our civilization's energy systems. The faster it happens the less damage there will be from anthropogenic global warming.


The key will be, an electric car that IS cheaper than an internal combustion car. The current Tesla offerings are WAY too pricey to be taken seriously. Tesla or someone else will have to come up with something the average consumer can reasonably afford. This generation's Model T or VW Bug. How Tesla can manage that and recoup its massive investment, plus current manufacturing costs, and survive the competition that will inevitably arrive remains to be proven.
Quoting 135. ACSeattle:


The future ain't what it used to be

On the other hand, they totally missed the PC revolution.
The low that split off 97L is now well NE of Daytona Beach and still diving WSW or SW. This could become the dominate circulation according to more and more models this evening.

Been feeling that way here all day. (Wilmington NC) I dont know Nor'easter or trop system, its been windy as shell

Yes...here a pleasant feel actually..winds just kicked up since sunset. I do take notice of the quickly passing cloud pattern ...something which does in some ways resemble a N.Easter but these clouds have a more tropical look. Neat to watch...pleasant to feel..but something to watch is the question? What say group?
179. flsky
Wind has been getting stronger here in Ponce Inlet, as well. Still pretty humid, but the temp feels great. We've got a 50% pop overnight.

Quoting 173. cameronstaugustine:

thought the group may be interested to know the weather here in Saint Augustine is akin to a Nor Easter. This afternoon it was relatively stable ...this evening.. clouds are passing the moon quickly and we have a very stiff N.E breeze. Considering the invest offshore...I am interested in opinions from everyone. My casual observation...something is brewing...not saying bad or tropical ...just not your every day normal weather here. So what say all...typical n.easter pattern or something more interesting to watch? BTW..the air is actually pleasant so no complaints or worries ...yet!
K8becane..sorry still getting the hang of quoting responses...To Tampa Scott...thanks ...good info.
meant storm Tracker Scott...geezz...senile at 49 :)
Quoting 177. StormTrackerScott:

The low that split off 97L is now well NE of Daytona Beach and still diving WSW or SW. This could become the dominate circulation according to more and more models this evening.




Some of the forecasts last week kept hinting at a "low" retrograding? from the NE to the SW off the NE Fl coast. This must be what they were hinting at.
Weather and its forecast is so interesting on both sides of the coin. Forecasts that pan out and those that dont and the hind site as to why. But all too often its like the news its hard to find the followup.
Quoting 178. cameronstaugustine:

Been feeling that way here all day. (Wilmington NC) I dont know Nor'easter or trop system, its been windy as shell

Yes...here a pleasant feel actually..winds just kicked up since sunset. I do take notice of the quickly passing cloud pattern ...something which does in some ways resemble a N.Easter but these clouds have a more tropical look. Neat to watch...pleasant to feel..but something to watch is the question? What say group?


Thats too easy. Its a trop'easter
No harm watching but its nothing to worry about as of this point and i dont think its gonna find ideal conditions before it interacts with land
But hey, something to watch for us weather geeks
Evening all . The key imo is being able to make renewables more affordable than fossil fuels . When this happens we are going to see a huge shift in power away from the old fogies of companies. No wonder they are throwing $$ at the things they hope will keep us in the fossil ages...


watching invest 96L
"The low-level center of Ida has been placed in the middle of a gyre
defined by several small vortices. The cyclone is still sheared with
the strongest convection located within a cyclonically- curved band
to the south of the center."

"Ida is embedded within the southern end of a mid-level trough, which
is forcing the cyclone to drift east-southeastward at about 4 kt,
and is also causing shear over the cyclone. The evolution of this
trough will be crucial for the future of Ida. Global models indicate
that Ida will drift generally eastward embedded in the trough for
the next 48 hours. After that time, most of the models lift the
trough out, leaving Ida south of an amplifying ridge. This long
range forecast pattern should result in the cyclone turning toward
the north-northwest as indicated in the NHC forecast, and also a
decrease of the shear with favorable conditions for strengthening."

Quotes from
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015
Ida" appears" to be organizing and strengthening tonight
Quoting 179. flsky:

Wind has been getting stronger here in Ponce Inlet, as well. Still pretty humid, but the temp feels great. We've got a 50% pop overnight.




Hi down in Ponce...kinda nice isnt it? we dont hav ethe high dew points you reference there...feels like being in the islands vs FL. But..well you know...that makes me wonder. Storm Tracker Scott..thanks again...if this is just a pattern vs storm I'll take it. BTW...I am leaving for a long vacation tomorrow...was just asking about the invest because I really don't want to have to prep before I leave. Windy N. Easters are common here as you know. (btw way I lived in Reddington Bch for years so I know the gulf side set up too...prefer the Atlantic as that is where I grew up).

Everyone ...thanks for the conversation and speedy resonses. I am packing...following you while in VT
Quoting 189. stormpetrol:

Ida" appears" to be organizing and strengthening tonight


DID YOU SEE THE BLUE MODEL!!


one more tropical wave to watch

Pretty large.
Invest 97L

Invest 97L
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.

Last Updated Sep 22, 2015 00 GMT
Location 33.4 74.0W Movement S
Wind 35 MPH Pressure: --



heavy rain in the southeast
one last comment...wow..NC and SC are getting much higher wind gusts than here in Saint Augutsine, FL ...but we are building. On those who took the time to relay info...thanks... I am not unduly concerned just yet...at least for here. But I say that not having had the time to actually check all revelvant details and models.

good job posting everyone ...thanks!


here come some rain!!

Maybe 98L soon.

Ida

Wave coming off Africa...
Quoting 168. QueensWreath:

This is for Sar
This is the best explanation for time moving faster as you get older.
It is an awesome explanation.

"Have you ever observed that time seems to be going by faster as you get older?

There's a reason that one summer seems to stretch out forever when you're a kid, but zips by before you know it when you're 30. That reason is perspective, as a gorgeous interactive visualization, by Austrian designer Maximilian Kiener, demonstrates.

When you're one year old, a year is literally forever to you -- it's all the time that you've ever known. But as you grow older, one year is a smaller and smaller fraction of your total life. It's like watching something shrink in your rear view mirror.

This idea has stunning implications. It means that parents actually see their children grow up much faster than children perceive themselves to be."

Read the rest here with a great visual.

Link
Thanks for that link. Makes total sense in terms of why time is compressing. Doesn't explain why my brain still thinks it's 35 years ago though. :-)
Getting a little thunder off to the west now. I expect we'll see some rain overnight.... just hope it's a cooling rain and not a precursor to yet another super humid day tomorrow....
Quoting 175. BayFog:



The key will be, an electric car that IS cheaper than an internal combustion car. The current Tesla offerings are WAY too pricey to be taken seriously. Tesla or someone else will have to come up with something the average consumer can reasonably afford. This generation's Model T or VW Bug. How Tesla can manage that and recoup its massive investment, plus current manufacturing costs, and survive the competition that will inevitably arrive remains to be proven.


Yes, so far Tesla's vehicles are on the high end but they're working on a lower cost model. Right now a Nissan Leaf is pretty close to being affordable for many. If you can live with the range limitations it may already be cheaper than the equivalent IC engine car for total cost of ownership over its lifetime. According to Consumer Reports the Leaf costs 3.5 cents per mile based on 11 cents/kWh electricity cost. Considering that your "fuel" costs less than half the cost of gasoline and you eliminate all of the engine maintenance costs you can afford to pay a bit more up front. As the price of batteries continues to drop it's only going to get cheaper.
211. beell
Re-reading last night's NHC discussion on crazy Ida, you have to wonder.

This one gets my vote as storm of the year although some might call her ugly!

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015

...The ECMWF has consistently shown Ida re-strengthening, seemingly as a consequence of baroclinic forcing from the trough interaction. Such an interaction could potentially result in Ida's taking on the characteristics of a hybrid cyclone...



Graphic is old-1945Z today.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
818 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 22 2015

Long term...

Heading into the weekend...both the Euro and GFS indicate that
both upper level low pressure systems will both features will
gradually form into one larger...but still fairly weak...upper
level trough extending across the western Gulf and the forecast
area. At the same time...over Florida and the southeast
Gulf...upper level ridging will remain in control. The models both
indicate that some increasing middle-level convergence will begin to
develop along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Theta-E values will
increase dramatically in this area of enhanced convergence...and
expect to see an increase in cloud cover and convective coverage
for both Saturday and Sunday. With rain chances on the
increase...have also bumped temperatures down a few degrees into
the middle 80s for the weekend. With precipitable water values well above
climatological norms at around 2 inches...there could the
potential for some locally heavy rainfall to occur in a few
locations. This will be most likely in areas where heavier
convection repeatedly develops over the same area.

Conditions look to turn more unsettled heading into early next
week. Overall confidence in the development of a possible tropical
low over the Gulf of Mexico has increased this afternoon...as both
the GFS and the Euro show a feature forming. However...this system
has not formed at this time...so overall uncertainty remains
higher than average. Unfortunately...there is also a great amount
of disagreement in the overall synoptic pattern between the models
concerning the northern stream pattern. Both models indicate that
an upper level low will continue to linger over Texas...and
ridging will continues over Florida on Monday and Tuesday.
However...the Euro solution has a strong trough develop over the
eastern Seaboard...and ridging form over the plains states. This
pattern will tend to keep any low in the Gulf farther away from
the central Gulf Coast...as the low would be trapped beneath the
ridging to the north over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Conversely...the GFS keeps ridging in place over the eastern
Seaboard...and has a trough axis descending into the Central
Plains states. This pattern will tend to pull the low in the Gulf
farther to the north...and the GFS has the low approaching the
central Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time...have
decided to go with a blended solution...and have increasing rain
chances and stronger winds of around 20 miles per hour impacting the coastal
waters and immediate coastal zones in Louisiana on Monday and
Tuesday. The ultimate path of this feature will be highly
dependent on the overall synoptic pattern that develops north of
the forecast area.
The storms have been very resistant this year but Ida seems to be the most resistant.She refuses to get defeated by El nino and his minion shear.
GEM earlier,

run o Doom'





Quoting 150. TheBigBanana:

Why is the probability of development for the low offshore the Carolinas so low? Shear?
This is my take on it. There are three lows attached to a weakening front. The 1013 low in the Atlantic and the 1013 low in the Gulf are both dissipating. The 1010 low is 97L. There are even more lows attached to the front further north. Rather than a real series of discrete lows, there's the equivalent of a broad trough. 97L is producing gale force winds within the trough, and one of the reasons why is the very high shear levels shown along the front. It's very difficult for a low within a trough to intensify much without some kind of kicker, preferably another front in this case. Instead, a very strong high from Canada is going to be be pushing the northern extent of the front offshore by Thursday. As it does so, the southern and weaker extent is going to bend west since the high is too far north to carry the whole front/trough east. 97L will drift with the front and be inland by Friday. There's just no mechanism that's going to turn 97L into more than it is now - a gale front. I believe it's a combination of all these factors that leads the NHC to not be overly concerned about any tropical development with 97L.



Quoting 211. beell:

Re-reading last night's NHC discussion on crazy Ida, you have to wonder.

This one gets my vote as storm of the year although some might call her ugly!

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015

...The ECMWF has consistently shown Ida re-strengthening, seemingly as a consequence of baroclinic forcing from the trough interaction. Such an interaction could potentially result in Ida's taking on the characteristics of a hybrid cyclone...



Graphic is old-1945Z today.
It's sure one of the stranger storms we've had in awhile. It would really be interesting if Ida managed to reach hurricane wind speeds while it was a hybrid.
217. beell
Quoting 216. sar2401:

It's sure one of the stranger storms we've had in awhile. It would really be interesting if Ida managed to reach hurricane wind speeds while it was a hybrid.


Well, it's no Sandy (thankfully), but it is an unique storm!
Well it's too late to hope the power doesn't go off...
Quoting 209. riverat544:


Yes, so far Tesla's vehicles are on the high end but they're working on a lower cost model. Right now a Nissan Leaf is pretty close to being affordable for many. If you can live with the range limitations it may already be cheaper than the equivalent IC engine car for total cost of ownership over its lifetime. According to Consumer Reports the Leaf costs 3.5 cents per mile based on 11 cents/kWh electricity cost. Considering that your "fuel" costs less than half the cost of gasoline and you eliminate all of the engine maintenance costs you can afford to pay a bit more up front. As the price of batteries continues to drop it's only going to get cheaper.
I agree with the general concept of electric vehicles becoming a bigger share of the market but CR is doing a little sales pitch because they want that to happen. The average cost of electricity per KWH in the US is about 12.5 cents. It's much worse if you look at costs in the high population markets of the Northeast, where it's more like 14.5 cents to 18 cents. It's even worse in the Los Angeles market, where the price is about 20 cents. The real advantage is the price of gasoline is also much higher than the US average in these markets, which helps to offset the higher electricity costs.
Quoting 217. beell:



Well, it's no Sandy (thankfully), but it is an unique storm!
Thankfully indeed. Between 97L and Ida, I imagine the ibuprofen intake levels have increased at the NHC. :-)
Quoting 218. BahaHurican:

Well it's too late to hope the power doesn't go off...
What happened? Wind? Lightning? Bad juju? :-)
222. 7544
Quoting 195. hurricanes2018:

Invest 97L

Invest 97L
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.

Last Updated Sep 22, 2015 00 GMT
Location 33.4 74.0W Movement S
Wind 35 MPH Pressure: --

south hmmmm maybe will follow the blue model ?
Quoting 209. riverat544:


Yes, so far Tesla's vehicles are on the high end but they're working on a lower cost model. Right now a Nissan Leaf is pretty close to being affordable for many. If you can live with the range limitations it may already be cheaper than the equivalent IC engine car for total cost of ownership over its lifetime. According to Consumer Reports the Leaf costs 3.5 cents per mile based on 11 cents/kWh electricity cost. Considering that your "fuel" costs less than half the cost of gasoline and you eliminate all of the engine maintenance costs you can afford to pay a bit more up front. As the price of batteries continues to drop it's only going to get cheaper.
Will it pull a cattle trailer?
Accuweathers Take....Ha Ha


Tropical Storm Ida is fighting against strong upper-level northwesterly wind shear that has displaced convection to the east and south of the center of circulation. Ida will track to the east over the next 12-24 hours all the while fighting strong wind shear, so it will try hard to hang on to tropical storm status.
High pressure will strengthen to the east of Ida on Thursday and Friday and this will cause the system to turn to the north and pick up forward speed across the open waters of the central Atlantic. Wind shear will lessen Friday and over the weekend, so if Ida can survive in the short-term, then conditions will be more favorable for strengthening towards the end of the week and over the weekend, but likely remaining a tropical storm. Above-average sea surface temperatures in the path of Ida will also favor strengthening as well. Ida will be no threat to land through at least the next 7 days.
A non-tropical low pressure system is centered just off the Carolina coast. Wind shear over the low should disrupt the potential for tropical development over the next few days. Regardless of development, the low will bring gusty winds from the Delmarva coast south into the Carolinas over the next few days. Eventually, the system will track west into the Southeast later Wednesday into Thursday. The westward track will usher rain, some heavy into the region. Another area of low pressure will develop near the North Carolina coast over the weekend causing more wind and rain to impact parts of the mid-Atlantic region. Rough surf and coastal flooding will be an issue along the mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend.
We will be monitoring the Gulf of Mexico later this weekend and early next week. An upper level trough of low pressure will develop over south Texas over the weekend and direct some tropical energy to the north across central America. Long range global models show this energy developing an area of low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. The upper-level low over south Texas will cause strong southwesterly wind shear over this area, which would be a negative factor for strengthening. The wind shear would tend to string out or stretch the developing low to the northeast or even shear the upper part of the system off to the northeast over the Deep South, while the lower part remains over the Gulf.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck.
Quoting 223. Kenfa03:

Will it pull a cattle trailer?


What a silly comment. No it can't pull a cattle trailer, nor is it designed to. The goal of the Leaf is not to become the "go to" vehicle for cattle ranching, but rather an economy passenger vehicle for daily use in urbanized areas, you know, where most people live. If you can switch over the millions of passenger vehicles to more fuel efficient, hybrid, or full electric you can have a major impact on emissions.
Convinced other non-weather types to learn from this site. Good times, like after awesome analysis of El ninyo or the California drought. I showed some skittish friends that Henson and Masters were right; ocean temperatures were sending this seasons' hurricanes to the pacific. I said that non-weather experts like myself were lucky to have Masters and Henson to learn from.

Now this?

This is the last time I and my friends will be on wUnderground. 6 years on this site: and this is the end. I exhale carbon dioxide, so I am shocked that you would attack other carbon exhalers. I come here for expert weather, but instead I feel bad for breathing? Goodbye Wunderground. Maybe you won't miss me and some lurkers. Fine. We wont miss you.
BlackChop
Quoting 223. Kenfa03:

Will it pull a cattle trailer?


You're argument makes about as much sense as saying it's pointless to wear a kevlar vest since your underwear can't stop a bullet.
228. Wyote
226. BlackChop
10:43 PM MDT on September 22, 2015
0 +
Convinced other non-weather types to learn from this site. Good times, like after awesome analysis of El ninyo or the California drought. I showed some skittish friends that Henson and Masters were right; ocean temperatures were sending this seasons' hurricanes to the pacific. I said that non-weather experts like myself were lucky to have Masters and Henson to learn from.

Now this?

This is the last time I and my friends will be on wUnderground. 6 years on this site: and this is the end. I exhale carbon dioxide, so I am shocked that you would attack other carbon exhalers. I come here for expert weather, but instead I feel bad for breathing? Goodbye Wunderground. Maybe you won't miss me and some lurkers. Fine. We wont miss you.
BlackChop

LOL, apparently education isn't for everyone.
Quoting 227. Xyrus2000:



You're argument makes about as much sense as saying it's pointless to wear a kevlar vest since your underwear can't stop a bullet.
LOL. They make body armor now that covers those...uhh...areas. The bad guys learned pretty quick where you could still make a disabling shot...
Quoting 226. BlackChop:

Goodbye Wunderground. Maybe you won't miss me and some lurkers. Fine. We wont miss you.
BlackChop
Well, you know what they say about not letting door hit you on the way out. Your three posts will be missed.
Quoting 225. Naga5000:



What a silly comment. No it can't pull a cattle trailer, nor is it designed to. The goal of the Leaf is not to become the "go to" vehicle for cattle ranching, but rather an economy passenger vehicle for daily use in urbanized areas, you know, where most people live. If you can switch over the millions of passenger vehicles to more fuel efficient, hybrid, or full electric you can have a major impact on emissions.
Just wait until they make that really nice on-board hydro plant for the F-350's though. Those babies will pull a house over. :-)
Quoting 223. Kenfa03:

Will it pull a cattle trailer?

Maybe a small trailer with a calf in it :)

As far as a vehicle like a full sized electric pickup as batteries become cheaper and more energy dense they will eventually become practical but as Naga said let's go after the low hanging fruit first. Most people don't need a vehicle that can pull a livestock trailer, just a daily driver that gets them to and from work.
Quoting 228. Wyote:

226. BlackChop
10:43 PM MDT on September 22, 2015
0 +
Convinced other non-weather types to learn from this site. Good times, like after awesome analysis of El ninyo or the California drought. I showed some skittish friends that Henson and Masters were right; ocean temperatures were sending this seasons' hurricanes to the pacific. I said that non-weather experts like myself were lucky to have Masters and Henson to learn from.

Now this?

This is the last time I and my friends will be on wUnderground. 6 years on this site: and this is the end. I exhale carbon dioxide, so I am shocked that you would attack other carbon exhalers. I come here for expert weather, but instead I feel bad for breathing? Goodbye Wunderground. Maybe you won't miss me and some lurkers. Fine. We wont miss you.
BlackChop

LOL, apparently education isn't for everyone.

If you think anybody's worried about the CO2 you and other living things exhale you need some education. The CO2 you exhale is just part of the carbon cycle. Plants absorb CO2 and turn them into carbohydrates, you eat plants (or animals that ate plants and made protein) and metabolize the carbon in it back to CO2. It's all part of a zero-sum cycle.
Quoting 234. KJ6MC:

Electric cars are nothing more than coal-powered vehicles. You are moving the "carbon footprint" not eliminating it. Not that it matters. Global warming is a proven hoax.
Oh geez. I'm an extra class ham also. Seriously, I'm disappointed you didn't learn more about how the atmosphere works to get your license.
Quoting 222. 7544:


south hmmmm maybe will follow the blue model ?
It's going to go southwest to Georgia and South Carolina. The GFS has this one pretty well nailed.
You know the Atlantic is dead when all people can talk about is a storm with 0% chances of developing (97l) ugh I miss when hurricane season was fun to tract hopefully next year will be promising
Quoting 234. KJ6MC:

Electric cars are nothing more than coal-powered vehicles. You are moving the "carbon footprint" not eliminating it. Not that it matters. Global warming is a proven hoax.
Your statement is false and ignornant since less than 40% of electricity comes from coal.
Quoting 237. Austin72893:

You know the Atlantic is dead when all people can talk about is a storm with 0% chances of developing (97l) ugh I miss when hurricane season was fun to tract hopefully next year will be promising
I was hoping for at least orange shading from this invest.
Quoting 225. Naga5000:



What a silly comment. No it can't pull a cattle trailer, nor is it designed to. The goal of the Leaf is not to become the "go to" vehicle for cattle ranching, but rather an economy passenger vehicle for daily use in urbanized areas, you know, where most people live. If you can switch over the millions of passenger vehicles to more fuel efficient, hybrid, or full electric you can have a major impact on emissions.
Actually, not silly. Kenfa 03 makes a good point. Food chain. How does the steer for you dollar Mac burger get from the small time rancher to the feed lot or livestock auction? (Add: A more difficult aspect of the problem of reducing CO2 than is human transport) Maybe we should go back to old-fashioned horse power. What do you think kenfa?

"Leaf... economy passenger vehicle for daily use in urbanized areas, you know, where most people live."
Now that is silly. Take the bus.
Quoting 234. KJ6MC:

Electric cars are nothing more than coal-powered vehicles. You are moving the "carbon footprint" not eliminating it. Not that it matters. Global warming is a proven hoax.

That's a good argument if you live in a country with most of its electricity derived from fossil fuels.
I recently got a note from my electricity supplier that informs me that 40% of electricity in Spain is now coming from renewable sources and rising.
Added to this you could always if possible add a solar system to you property and use that for charging.
Every little helps and although it may be a long term losing battle, at least you can help prolong the time when emissions are still barley acceptable.
Long term, which may now only be about 30 years time, the CO2 will probably get out of control as its getting to the point where its is coming into the atmosphere from non human created sources now.
Added to this there are other greenhouse gases also coming onto the scene from permafrost melting and uncontrollable fires.
Quoting 236. sar2401:

It's going to go southwest to Georgia and South Carolina. The GFS has this one pretty well nailed.


BaHaHaHa.....I been pretty impressed how well GFS does with them Gale Fronts
Quoting 237. Austin72893:

You know the Atlantic is dead when all people can talk about is a storm with 0% chances of developing (97l) ugh I miss when hurricane season was fun to tract hopefully next year will be promising


You must not have been here for erika
Wilmington NC NWS

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATES SFC
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A SUB 1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THIS RIDGING EXTENDS BASICALLY ALONG THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...NOT WELL IDENTIFIED IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...IS SHOWN MEANDERING OFFSHORE FROM THE NC-SC COASTS WITH A
PRESSURE OF 1010+ MB. THE PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED OR
PINCHED GRADIENT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA AND ITS
NEIGHBORS...WITH NORTH BY NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 G20+ MPH OVER ILM
LAND AREAS...AND 10-20 G25+ MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW TROFFINESS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT OF THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ILM
CWA...EITHER FROM THE ATLANTIC AND/OR THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
PROGGED PWS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. NO REAL MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE
OFFSHORE LOW TO ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OCCUR. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
DURING TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE WEAK TROFFING ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK
INTO 2 PIECES...A S/W TROF WILL EXIT OFF THE NJ COAST AND AWAY
FROM THE MAINLAND. WHEREAS...A GULF COAST MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP GUIDE THE MEANDERING LOW
LYING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...AND BRING IT ONSHORE IN THE
SC-GA-FL VICINITY AFTER DAYBREAK OR DURING THE DAY ON THU. THE FA
WILL BE LOOKING AT A SWATH OF MOISTURE TO COME ASHORE NORTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE PROGRESSIVELY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE FA AS THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVES INLAND. MAY
INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER OVER LAND AREAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
Baseball Hall-of-Famer Yogi Berra, a three-time MVP and member of 10 World Series championship teams as a player, has died at the age of 90

Weather Very Quiet here in Wilmington NC
From Grist:



Taxpayers lose billions to coal subsidies

By Katie Herzog


Attention taxpayers: Your hard-earned cash is going into some very deep pockets.

A new report reveals that American taxpayers spend billions annually on subsidies for coal, including tax breaks, government-funded infrastructure, and inexpensive leases on land.

From The Guardian:

The research examined the subsidies given to coal production in the US’s largest coal field, the Powder River Basin, and found they totalled $2.9bn (£1.9bn) a year. This equates to $8 per tonne, almost 25% of the sale price.

Ending the subsidies would lead to cuts in coal use equivalent to shutting up to 32 coal-fired power stations, the researchers found, leading to a large reduction in carbon emissions. …

“The fossil fuel industry has gamed energy market consumers, with numerous subsidies evident over the long term,” said Tim Buckley, at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, who worked on the report.

For those of you who don’t speak British, what this means is, instead of using this taxpayer money for, oh, education or healthcare or infrastructure or saving the goddamn planet, our government is giving it to coal barons and letting them rip apart our land and pollute our air. Cool! Glad to see you can still get rich in America — at least if you have the government on your side.
Quoting 244. K8eCane:



BaHaHaHa.....I been pretty impressed how well GFS does with them Gale Fronts
Why are you up at this hour? Why am I up at this hour? Who knows, except I've been reading a really good book and I just found it was four in the morning.

It appears that the GFS has shifted south with 97L, bringing the disorganized mess into Georgia and leaving South Carolina out of the action. The really cool thing is that it brings it right to the Alabama/Georgia state line! It won't be far from my house! And it might still have some rain...or drizzle by the time it gets here!

Not that I really believe any of that. The models will change again as 97L just saunters along with the decaying front. No matter where it comes ashore, the immediate coast will be the only places lucky enough to get any substantial rain. If it really makes it over to SE Alabama, it's going to be a pretty degraded batch of something. But at least there's a line on the map to give me hope! :-)

Quoting 247. K8eCane:

Baseball Hall-of-Famer Yogi Berra, a three-time MVP and member of 10 World Series championship teams as a player, has died at the age of 90

Weather Very Quiet here in Wilmington NC
Shows you how well I keep up with the news. I thought Yogi passed to that big ballfield in the sky a long time ago. I guess there just haven't been any recent Yogiisms to get my attention. It was 69 years to the day from his first appearance in major league ball until his passing today. He was a great ballplayer, manager, and coach, and there probably will never be another like him.
Quoting 249. sar2401:

Why are you up at this hour? Why am I up at this hour? Who knows, except I've been reading a really good book and I just found it was four in the morning.

It appears that the GFS has shifted south with 97L, bringing the disorganized mess into Georgia and leaving South Carolina out of the action. The really cool thing is that it brings it right to the Alabama/Georgia state line! It won't be far from my house! And it might still have some rain...or drizzle by the time it gets here!

Not that I really believe any of that. The models will change again as 97L just saunters along with the decaying front. No matter where it comes ashore, the immediate coast will be the only places lucky enough to get any substantial rain. If it really makes it over to SE Alabama, it's going to be a pretty degraded batch of something. But at least there's a line on the map to give me hope! :-)





Im ALWAYS up at this hour. I sleep about 3 hours in the afternoon and then around midnight 3-4 hours. But I usually wake up for the day around 4. It would be nice if you could get a drop or two from somewhere outta the sky!
Quoting 240. Barefootontherocks:

Actually, not silly. Kenfa 03 makes a good point. Food chain. How does the steer for you dollar Mac burger get from the small time rancher to the feed lot or livestock auction? (Add: A more difficult aspect of the problem of reducing CO2 than is human transport) Maybe we should go back to old-fashioned horse power. What do you think kenfra?

"Leaf... economy passenger vehicle for daily use in urbanized areas, you know, where most people live."
Now that is silly. Take the bus.


it is silly, it is the equivalent of asking why the small passenger car doesn't also make breakfast while you drive to work. It isn't supposed to, it isn't designed to, and it is not its purpose. Of course big truck transport is an issue, although proportionally it is a much smaller one than the 225 million passenger vehicles in the U.S. Your view seems to be if we cannot solve all of the problem at once we shouldn't solve any aspect of the problem. That seems very self defeating. As for the bus comment, you fail to realize that some cities, like Orlando, lack the developed infrastructure and funds to have a fully functioning public transit system that allows for a reliable alternative to driving. We rely on a highway system here. So maybe, just maybe, small changes in the way we live by slowing getting off fossil fuels and combustion engines will begin to make a difference. Or we can not do anything worthwhile because we fail to solve the entirety of the transportation issue because an electric car is not a truck. Your logic is quite stunning and just as silly as expecting the electric car to be a truck.

Edit: Quite frankly, the scenario you propose is also part of the problem, factory farming and fast food. But we can leave that for another silly comment.
255. MahFL
Quoting 225. Naga5000:



If you can switch over the millions of passenger vehicles to more fuel efficient, hybrid, or full electric you can have a major impact on emissions.


If you have more electric cars, won't you need more power stations, emitting more emissions ?
Also someone may do another "VW", ie lie and falsify the emissions their cars are producing, in VW's case by a factor of 40.
Maybe that ULL is working down to the surface:

Quoting 255. MahFL:



If you have more electric cars, won't you need more power stations, emitting more emissions ?
Also someone may do another "VW", ie lie and falsify the emissions their cars are producing, in VW's case by a factor of 40.

Studies on the matter conclude that cars charged on the grid have lower effective emissions than gasoline powered cars, and that does not take into account places that get some or a majority of their power from renewables. Nor does it measure human health benefits from reduced emissions like less smog and particulates in city settings. Again, marginal benefit should not mean inaction. This is a weaning process, not cold turkey.
258. MahFL
Quoting 257. Naga5000:


Studies on the matter conclude that cars charged on the grid have lower effective emissions than gasoline powered cars.



Studies paid for by whom, people pushing electric cars and solar maybe ?
259. MahFL
Back on the wx front, it's a nice 71 F this am, here in Orange Park.
Good morning. Flare up over the center of the upper low in the Atlantic. Even if it did it would likely curve out to sea.

262. beell
Quoting 258. MahFL:



Studies paid for by whom, people pushing electric cars and solar maybe ?


Electric cars are only as "green" as the the method used to produce the electricity that makes them go. In a perfect world, if all our electricity was produced from renewables, internal combustion engines would be left in the dust.

Studies do not reduce the carbon footprint.

264. beell
Quoting 258. MahFL:



Studies paid for by whom, people pushing electric cars and solar maybe ?


Do you have an issue with investors and manufacturers making a buck off of selling electric cars for a profit?

It's the American way, lol!
Quoting 239. TheBigBanana:

I was hoping for at least orange shading from this invest.


You and me both
Quoting 258. MahFL:



Studies paid for by whom, people pushing electric cars and solar maybe ?


Well here are two good sources from the U.S. Dept. of Energy and the Union of Concerned Scientists, a simple google search can find more. Effective emissions for plug in electric and hybrids are simply lower than gasoline powered cars.
Happy Fall everyone. Everyone have a blessed and wonderful day.
Quoting 256. farupnorth:

Maybe that ULL is working down to the surface:




Hmmm....beats me.
269. MahFL
Quoting 266. Naga5000:



Well here are two good sources from the U.S. Dept. of Energy and the Union of Concerned Scientists, a simple google search can find more. Effective emissions for plug in electric and hybrids are simply lower than gasoline powered cars.


Not always. From the Dept Of Energy report:

" In regions that depend heavily on conventional fossil fuels for electricity generation, PEVs may not demonstrate a well-to-wheel emissions benefit."
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Development, if any, should be slow to
occur as the system drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 20 percent

Forecaster Avila

Studies also show that Loch ness and Bigfoot are lurking by a city near you.......
Quoting 232. riverat544:


Maybe a small trailer with a calf in it :)

As far as a vehicle like a full sized electric pickup as batteries become cheaper and more energy dense they will eventually become practical but as Naga said let's go after the low hanging fruit first. Most people don't need a vehicle that can pull a livestock trailer, just a daily driver that gets them to and from work.
Meet someone with a Tesla, if I remember correctly it was the 85s version, was a very well thought out car and was fun to drive. It was different though as there was no gear shifting, and if you took your foot off the power pedal, since it is not a gas pedal, there is no coasting with this car, you need to regulate the speed with your foot on the pedal at all times, and one last thing, there is no noise from the motor. Still will wait a few more years as I need a truck or SUV to pull my boat, which uses a lot of gas compared to a car. I am looking foreword to a reliable marine electric outboard motor, and batteries that can run for 5 or 6 hundred miles on a charge. Would be nice to try and figure out a way to charge the car or boat batteries with solar power.
273. Inyo
The question about cattle isn't irrelevant. I live in rural Vermont and need a new car soon... I don't think it will be a truck this time (plan to keep the old one and use it only rarely). Ideally I'd get a plug in hybrid but considering I need to be able to get through 6 inches of snow and deal with icy roads, and also that I am 6'5 and don't fit in tiny cars... my options are limited. If I am lucky I can get a subaru that gets 50% better mileage than my truck... but no plug in hybrid for me... they don't make them in all wheel drive and even if they did I couldn't afford them in current prices.
But... Vermont has a tiny population. I think that other commenter was right - change to electric or plug in hybrid cars will happen first in the cities. Here I am limited in vehicle options but there are other ways I can help, namely by getting as much food as I can locally and often from our garden... and heating with local wood (very nearly carbon neutral if from a sustainably managed forest which many here are). So... if you are a cattle rancher, no you won't be getting a Prius soon but you can do a lot by sticking solar panels on your barn, fencing cows out of riparian areas (less a CO2 issue but crucial for flood resilience), maybe if you're in the right climate even consider switching to bison. The electric trucks and subarus will come later.
Until Tesla can wholesale a car that is reasonably affordable, battery powered cars won't be a factor. From what I can tell, Tesla is really the only game in town that has made any considerable progress on this. I read an article recently that Tesla is producing a car that will sell for $32k-$35k, but that it is years away still. In fact, Elon Musk seems to be making incredible inroads on products that will reduce the average American's carbon footprint, yet you never hear a thing about them. I wonder why?
275. MahFL
Spinning like a top :

276. MahFL
Doom !

Quoting 275. MahFL:

Spinning like a top :




You were on top of this yesterday and I'm surprised the NHC didn't highlight this area off NE FL as there appears to be a low there NE of Daytona Beach. Infact last night reports of over 4" in spots from Flagler County down to the New Smyrna Beach area.

This system off FL is robbing the heavy rains that were supposed to be over NC already. Very complex system here off FL. Despite being sheared it has great spin to it.

97L is gone gone gone.....
Quoting 234. KJ6MC:

Electric cars are nothing more than coal-powered vehicles. You are moving the "carbon footprint" not eliminating it. Not that it matters. Global warming is a proven hoax.


Where's your stats, peer-reviewed studies etc. I like scientific dialogue, as long as we're being truthful....
Quoting 258. MahFL:



Studies paid for by whom, people pushing electric cars and solar maybe ?


I don't suppose the oil and coal industries have sponsored any studies because they have something to sell?



Quoting 271. cat6band:

Studies also show that Loch ness and Bigfoot are lurking by a city near you.......


And regarding the Bigfoot and Loch Ness studies, perhaps you could provide a link? No, I didn't think so.

Perfect fall day here in Maine. Oddly, the foliage is very late here and in Canada. No frost in sight, even way up north.

Huh. Wonder why that could be.
Relax folks. Climate scientists like to post these graphs and exclude what CO2 concentrations have been on earth in the past. They only look at recent events. From the report cited below, "Reconstruction of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the last 65 million years shows that there have been periods when this greenhouse gas was vastly more abundant than today. For example, between the Paleocene and Eocene, around 50 to 55 million of years ago, it was about 2000 ppm." That's 4 times the levels we're seeing today. Chicken little again. You can read the report here:

https://claudiocassardo.wordpress.com/2013/05/10/ an-epochal-symbolic-threshold-the-co2-concentratio n-at-mauna-loa-has-exceeded-400-ppm/

The report also states, "Earth experienced for the last time an atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide of 400 ppm about three millions years ago, i.e. before the appearance of the so-called Homo sapiens. At that time, the temperatures were 3-4 deg.C higher than now, and the sea level was about 25 meters higher than now." Note that this was before man even existed.

The earth has dealt with this type of climate change many times. At the end of the last ice age 19,000 years ago, sea levels rose 421 feet. The earth is resilient and will handle what is occurring now. Relax.
Quoting 276. MahFL:

Doom !





you guys reallly need too start acting your age there is no DOOM in the gulf
Quoting 278. StormTrackerScott:

This system off FL is robbing the heavy rains that were supposed to be over NC already. Very complex system here off FL. Despite being sheared it has great spin to it.




again..Heavy rains aren't supposed to start until this evening for NC..

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ON
THURSDAY JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA BIG BEND. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE BRINGS A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
CAROLINAS. EASTERLY FLOW JUST ATOP THIS SURFACE LAYER WILL CAUSE
INCREASING OVERRUNNING OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND RISING RAIN CHANCES.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND A HEALTHY VORT
MAX ROTATES ASHORE AROUND THE FLORIDA LOW.
THE MID LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND RETROGRADES ON FRIDAY BUT MANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN-MAKING
PLAYERS REMAIN IN PLACE I.E. MAINLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNNING
THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WEDGE.
LOOKING AT THE RH FIELDS OF THE
MODELS IT SEEMS THAT FRIDAY WILL OFFER A LONGER FETCH OF MOISTURE
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS TO OFFER
UP NOT ONLY HIGHER POPS OVERALL BUT ALSO WHEN THE RAIN MAY BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES, LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING RAINS DO NOT
SUFFER A DIURNAL CYCLE LIKE CONVECTION OFTEN DOES. IN FACT A
STRONGER AND/OR DEEPER NOCTURNAL SURFACE LAYER CAN BOLSTER THE
EFFECTS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.




286. Inyo
The question isn't whether 'the earth' can handle it. The question is what will happen to humans. if all the ice caps melt a huge proportion of cities and farmland will be flooded. if it warms 4C, agricultural areas will shift greatly causing famine, and storm tracks will shift greatly causing severe flood and drought. Of course some animals and plants will survive but I don't think that's the worry here? Honestly climate change is more a social than environmental issue.

Millions of years ago the earth was full of swamps and rain forests and shallow seas - great conditions for giant insects and dinosaurs and alligators, etc. Not so great for our species.

Quoting 282. Sandy82579:

Relax folks. Climate scientists like to post these graphs and exclude what CO2 concentrations have been on earth in the past. They only look at recent events. From the report cited below, "Reconstruction of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the last 65 million years shows that there have been periods when this greenhouse gas was vastly more abundant than today. For example, between the Paleocene and Eocene, around 50 to 55 million of years ago, it was about 2000 ppm." That's 4 times the levels we're seeing today. Chicken little again. You can read the report here:

https://claudiocassardo.wordpress.com/2013/05/10/ an-epochal-symbolic-threshold-the-co2-concentratio n-at-mauna-loa-has-exceeded-400-ppm/

The report also states, "Earth experienced for the last time an atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide of 400 ppm about three millions years ago, i.e. before the appearance of the so-called Homo sapiens. At that time, the temperatures were 3-4 deg.C higher than now, and the sea level was about 25 meters higher than now." Note that this was before man even existed.

The earth has dealt with this type of climate change many times. At the end of the last ice age 19,000 years ago, sea levels rose 421 feet. The earth is resilient and will handle what is occurring now. Relax.
May not be tropical but there does seem to be a pretty decent low off Daytona Beach. Looks more like the low we saw the first week of November in 2014 off Volusia County.

Quoting 243. Gearsts:




Will be interesting too see what intensity it can reach. Both the GFS and ECMWF have overdone WPAC storms so many times this year
Quoting 269. MahFL:



Not always. From the Dept Of Energy report:

" In regions that depend heavily on conventional fossil fuels for electricity generation, PEVs may not demonstrate a well-to-wheel emissions benefit."


Of course. So I guess we should scrap the whole idea then...

This argument is truly pointless. It can't fix everything, so let's not try to fix anything.
Weekly rainfall in the upper 1/3rd of the historical range for the first week of October for the Gulf Coast states from LA to FL.

291. MahFL
Quoting 283. Tazmanian:




you guys reallly need too start acting your age there is no DOOM in the gulf


We know that Taz, it's an El Nino year, shear rules.
292. MahFL
Quoting 287. StormTrackerScott:

May not be tropical but there does seem to be a pretty decent low off Daytona Beach. Looks more like the low we saw the first week of November in 2014 off Volusia County.




The rain is getting closer to the JAX coastline too.
Quoting 282. Sandy82579:

Relax folks. Climate scientists like to post these graphs and exclude what CO2 concentrations have been on earth in the past. They only look at recent events. From the report cited below, "Reconstruction of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the last 65 million years shows that there have been periods when this greenhouse gas was vastly more abundant than today. For example, between the Paleocene and Eocene, around 50 to 55 million of years ago, it was about 2000 ppm." That's 4 times the levels we're seeing today. Chicken little again. You can read the report here:

https://claudiocassardo.wordpress.com/2013/05/10/ an-epochal-symbolic-threshold-the-co2-concentratio n-at-mauna-loa-has-exceeded-400-ppm/

The report also states, "Earth experienced for the last time an atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide of 400 ppm about three millions years ago, i.e. before the appearance of the so-called Homo sapiens. At that time, the temperatures were 3-4 deg.C higher than now, and the sea level was about 25 meters higher than now." Note that this was before man even existed.

The earth has dealt with this type of climate change many times. At the end of the last ice age 19,000 years ago, sea levels rose 421 feet. The earth is resilient and will handle what is occurring now. Relax.
I think you shot yourself in the foot here. If CO2 levels were 400 ppm three million years ago when Homo Sapiens weren't around, and we are nearing 400 ppm now, then it is something Homo Sapiens have never witnessed before. If sea level rose that high people along the coastline around the world would be greatly impacted from inundation, it would literally cause a mass migration inland. I'm not saying this is going to happen anytime soon, but your logic doesn't make any sense. Saying that the Earth has dealt with this type of climate change is like saying alright we will be okay, no big deal. I just don't know how one can sit here and write silliness like this. I think Climate Change denialism is a hoax.
Quoting 273. Inyo:

The question about cattle isn't irrelevant. I live in rural Vermont and need a new car soon... I don't think it will be a truck this time (plan to keep the old one and use it only rarely). Ideally I'd get a plug in hybrid but considering I need to be able to get through 6 inches of snow and deal with icy roads, and also that I am 6'5 and don't fit in tiny cars... my options are limited. If I am lucky I can get a subaru that gets 50% better mileage than my truck... but no plug in hybrid for me... they don't make them in all wheel drive and even if they did I couldn't afford them in current prices.
But... Vermont has a tiny population. I think that other commenter was right - change to electric or plug in hybrid cars will happen first in the cities. Here I am limited in vehicle options but there are other ways I can help, namely by getting as much food as I can locally and often from our garden... and heating with local wood (very nearly carbon neutral if from a sustainably managed forest which many here are). So... if you are a cattle rancher, no you won't be getting a Prius soon but you can do a lot by sticking solar panels on your barn, fencing cows out of riparian areas (less a CO2 issue but crucial for flood resilience), maybe if you're in the right climate even consider switching to bison. The electric trucks and subarus will come later.


I said the question was silly, because it is obvious that an electric passenger vehicle couldn't do something like tow a cattle trailer that it wasn't designed to do. Not that there wasn't a market for electric trucks to do the task. Of course electric and hybrid options are not for ever use at the moment, but that certainly does not mean they should be ridiculed either.
295. MahFL
Upper level steering is straight towards the coast too :



Quoting 284. ncstorm:



again..Heavy rains aren't supposed to start until this evening for NC..

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ON
THURSDAY JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA BIG BEND. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE BRINGS A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
CAROLINAS. EASTERLY FLOW JUST ATOP THIS SURFACE LAYER WILL CAUSE
INCREASING OVERRUNNING OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND RISING RAIN CHANCES.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND A HEALTHY VORT
MAX ROTATES ASHORE AROUND THE FLORIDA LOW.
THE MID LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND RETROGRADES ON FRIDAY BUT MANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN-MAKING
PLAYERS REMAIN IN PLACE I.E. MAINLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNNING
THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WEDGE.
LOOKING AT THE RH FIELDS OF THE
MODELS IT SEEMS THAT FRIDAY WILL OFFER A LONGER FETCH OF MOISTURE
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS TO OFFER
UP NOT ONLY HIGHER POPS OVERALL BUT ALSO WHEN THE RAIN MAY BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES, LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING RAINS DO NOT
SUFFER A DIURNAL CYCLE LIKE CONVECTION OFTEN DOES. IN FACT A
STRONGER AND/OR DEEPER NOCTURNAL SURFACE LAYER CAN BOLSTER THE
EFFECTS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.








Morning NC
I dont like to see anything like that coming off the ocean at us....tropical or shmocical. It usually means massive rain LOL
297. beell
Quoting 294. Naga5000:



I said the question was silly, because it is obvious that an electric passenger vehicle couldn't do something like tow a cattle trailer that it wasn't designed to do. Not that there wasn't a market for electric trucks to do the task. Of course electric and hybrid options are not for ever use at the moment, but that certainly does not mean they should be ridiculed either.


Back when you and I were young, remember when the cattle had to walk to market?
:)
Quoting 282. Sandy82579:


"The earth has dealt with this type of climate change many times. At the end of the last ice age 19,000 years ago, sea levels rose 421 feet. The earth is resilient and will handle what is occurring now. Relax."

I'm sure the earth will handle it just fine, its the 7.2 +billions of people inhabiting it now that won't do so well!

Blame China

Until Tesla can wholesale a car that is reasonably affordable, battery powered cars won't be a factor. From what I can tell, Tesla is really the only game in town that has made any considerable progress on this. I read an article recently that Tesla is producing a car that will sell for $32k-$35k, but that it is years away still. In fact, Elon Musk seems to be making incredible inroads on products that will reduce the average American's carbon footprint, yet you never hear a thing about them. I wonder why?



both bmw and mercedes have electric vehicles on the market in the low 40's
Quoting 297. beell:



Back when you and I were young, remember when the cattle had to walk to market?
:)
They still do that in some countries like India, Guyana, etc..with mules, they call them Donkey Carts.
Quoting 299. DavidHOUTX:

Blame China

Hello, have u been monitoring the potential gulf coast threat???
Re: 282

"Fires have occurred naturally throughout our planet's history. Therefore, we don't need to be concerned about that smoky smell, and the door feeling warm is just a tiny blip in the record, it doesn't matter. That coughing, that's totally natural, don't worry! We don't need to do anything. All is well!"
Quoting 297. beell:



Back when you and I were young, remember when the cattle had to walk to market?
:)


You must be really old. When I was young we already had domesticated horses to help us drive our cattle to market. ;-)
Quoting 302. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Hello, have u been monitoring the potential gulf coast threat???
I have and it could interesting very soon.
"The earth has dealt with this type of climate change many times. At the end of the last ice age 19,000 years ago, sea levels rose 421 feet. The earth is resilient and will handle what is occurring now. Relax."

I'm sure the earth will handle it just fine, its the 7.2 +billions of people inhabiting it now that won't do so well!




here's what just a 200' rise would do on our east coast...affecting more than a third of the US population......not to mention even more calamity in other parts of the world....double that to 400...the map below....you would triple the impact areas..


well stated cape



Quoting 302. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Hello, have u been monitoring the potential gulf coast threat???


I have been, but the models are everywhere and there really isn't anything physically there to monitor. Until there are actual clouds in the GoM I am not believing anything.
Quoting 255. MahFL:



If you have more electric cars, won't you need more power stations, emitting more emissions ?
Also someone may do another "VW", ie lie and falsify the emissions their cars are producing, in VW's case by a factor of 40.


VW's "cheat" tuning increases combustion temperatures by running extra-lean, one of the many things diesels can do well. This tradeoff sacrifices NOx emissions for reduced fuel consumption, and therefore reduces in CO2 emissions and PM emissions. NOx emissions can lead to smog, CO2 is typically blamed for GCC, and PM contributes to both, BUT CO2 also receives the most attention when it comes to greenhouse gasses, and PM is a proven carcinogen. NOx gets far less airtime, and seems to be a more localized problem in urban areas (which, btw, is not where the average TDI driver spends most of their miles), where CO2 emissions are a problem no matter where they are produced.
In my opinion, they chose the lesser of two evils to the benefit of the consumer (>MPG) and the global climate / CO2 rise. Any "fix" will likely be to the benefit of no one, as a decrease in NOx emissions will also be accompanied by an increase in CO2 emissions, shorter lifespan of vehicles, reduced MPG, and unhappy owners. Oh, but the federal government will have more money in their pockets that they can spend on those coal subsidies. So, I guess somebody benefits.

Side note, this is my first post. I like weather and cars, so I've just been waiting for the right time to chime in.
Quoting 300. ricderr:


Until Tesla can wholesale a car that is reasonably affordable, battery powered cars won't be a factor. From what I can tell, Tesla is really the only game in town that has made any considerable progress on this. I read an article recently that Tesla is producing a car that will sell for $32k-$35k, but that it is years away still. In fact, Elon Musk seems to be making incredible inroads on products that will reduce the average American's carbon footprint, yet you never hear a thing about them. I wonder why?



both bmw and mercedes have electric vehicles on the market in the low 40's


But I'm not gonna pay for a 30k+ car, I'm not living to pay bills and live at my job to pay for the car to pay the bill and the house that sits empty all day while I'm at work that pays for all those bills. Just makes no sense anymore in this world.

Guys here in TX paying 50k for these big Ol trucks, 3ft mirrors sticking out on the side, over size tires, and what do they do....live to pay bills. That's all these people do.
Quoting 297. beell:



Back when you and I were young, remember when the cattle had to walk to market?
:)

I remember those times...So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on 'em.
Quoting 307. DavidHOUTX:



I have been, but the models are everywhere and there really isn't anything physically there to monitor. Until there are actual clouds in the GoM I am not believing anything.

I would as of now, the ECMWF is the current outlier.... we'll see what the 12z holds.
Quoting 307. DavidHOUTX:



I have been, but the models are everywhere and there really isn't anything physically there to monitor. Until there are actual clouds in the GoM I am not believing anything.


This model forecasting not only by mets on TV is getting ridiculous, when there's nothing there who cares what models are saying right? like you said, until clouds are down there on satellites I could care less.
Quoting 309. RitaEvac:



But I'm not gonna pay for a 30k car, I'm not living to pay bills and live at my job to pay for the car to pay the bill and the house that sits empty all day while I'm at work that pays for all those bills. Just makes no sense anymore in this world.

Guys here in TX paying 50k for these big Ol trucks, 3ft mirrors sticking out on the side, over size tires, and what do they do....live to pay bills. That's all these people do.




I hear ya! I have never been one that felt like I had to impress everybody. Take me as I am or bye bye and living just to pay for something like that would not be my cup of tea.
If thats what they want to do, thats their business though
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
331 am CDT Wednesday Sep 23 2015

Short/long term...
dry air will be stubborn to move west but will be eventually
pushed west by warm moist air from the west. Some shower activity
already moving toward the la and miss coast on deep easterlies.
Moisture will win out as the upper trough will restrograde back
over northern Mexico by the weekend. This will set a deep tropical
feed on the east side of the trough from the Yucatan up to the fla
Panhandle. Some of this will move west and east as a large
synoptic ridge begins to build over the eastern two thirds of the
Continental U.S. By the middle of next week. The cold front that will
introduce the large ridge will be very strong and quickly move
through the Great Lakes area by next Wednesday and eventually moving
into the middle Appalachians by Thursday of next week. Any tropical system
that would be around by that time would most definitely find
itself in a very volatile area over the eastern Gulf as shear
profiles will be in excess of 50kts. But this would be excellent
for a cold core system as the strong winds aloft would make for
some strong difluence. The biggest worry with next week for the
area that receives any of this tropical feed will be rainfall
amounts and tornadic activity. Since the synoptic high moves
rapidly southeast...it would keep most if not all of this activity east
of the central Gulf Coast. Obviously this is over a week away and
the simple fact of this is that we will need to see this energy
translate through western Canada before making any confident fcast
decisions that far out.

&&
Quoting 314. Patrap:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
331 am CDT Wednesday Sep 23 2015

Short/long term...
dry air will be stubborn to move west but will be eventually
pushed west by warm moist air from the west. Some shower activity
already moving toward the la and miss coast on deep easterlies.
Moisture will win out as the upper trough will restrograde back
over northern Mexico by the weekend. This will set a deep tropical
feed on the east side of the trough from the Yucatan up to the fla
Panhandle. Some of this will move west and east as a large
synoptic ridge begins to build over the eastern two thirds of the
Continental U.S. By the middle of next week. The cold front that will
introduce the large ridge will be very strong and quickly move
through the Great Lakes area by next Wednesday and eventually moving
into the middle Appalachians by Thursday of next week. Any tropical system
that would be around by that time would most definitely find
itself in a very volatile area over the eastern Gulf as shear
profiles will be in excess of 50kts. But this would be excellent
for a cold core system as the strong winds aloft would make for
some strong difluence. The biggest worry with next week for the
area that receives any of this tropical feed will be rainfall
amounts and tornadic activity. Since the synoptic high moves
rapidly southeast...it would keep most if not all of this activity east
of the central Gulf Coast. Obviously this is over a week away and
the simple fact of this is that we will need to see this energy
translate through western Canada before making any confident fcast
decisions that far out.

&&



Sounds like yall got some heavy rain coming too Pat. This "thing" off the carolinas might be cold core, but its kicking up the wind gusts again this morning.
It's a dark cloudy morning here, makes getting out of bed harder.

Quoting 310. Naga5000:


I remember those times...So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on 'em.


Gimme five bees for a quarter, you'd say.

Now where was I?
315. K8eCane

I hear ya! I have never been one that felt like I had to impress everybody. Take me as I am or bye bye and living just to pay for something like that would not be my cup of tea.
If thats what they want to do, thats their business though


It's becoming my business, because this is why the middle class' $ss is gone. Why prices keep going up on everything, because these stupid people just keep buying and buying and buying, so the Rich say "well these people got money, lets jack up the prices some more" and people like us get screwed that want to live simple lives.
Not unusual to see this come early Oct, late Sept.

They GOM has lotsa tchp though, as a Hybrid would do much better in the forecast synoptic situ that may evolve.





GFS brings a strong cold front down across the Midwest and East Coast towards the end of its run.
Quoting 317. RitaEvac:



It's becoming my business, because this is why the middle class' $ss is gone. Why prices keep going up on everything, because these stupid people just keep buying and buying and buying, so the Rich say "well these people got money, lets jack up the prices some more" and people like us get screwed that want to live simple lives.


I still live my simple life in spite of it. Me? I absolutely insist on enjoying life. But i completely get what you're saying.
Quoting 282. Sandy82579:

Relax folks. Climate scientists like to post these graphs and exclude what CO2 concentrations have been on earth in the past. They only look at recent events. From the report cited below, "Reconstruction of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the last 65 million years shows that there have been periods when this greenhouse gas was vastly more abundant than today. For example, between the Paleocene and Eocene, around 50 to 55 million of years ago, it was about 2000 ppm." That's 4 times the levels we're seeing today. Chicken little again. You can read the report here:

https://claudiocassardo.wordpress.com/2013/05/10/ an-epochal-symbolic-threshold-the-co2-concentratio n-at-mauna-loa-has-exceeded-400-ppm/

The report also states, "Earth experienced for the last time an atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide of 400 ppm about three millions years ago, i.e. before the appearance of the so-called Homo sapiens. At that time, the temperatures were 3-4 deg.C higher than now, and the sea level was about 25 meters higher than now." Note that this was before man even existed.

The earth has dealt with this type of climate change many times. At the end of the last ice age 19,000 years ago, sea levels rose 421 feet. The earth is resilient and will handle what is occurring now. Relax.
Yeah, really. Our planet was hit by a massive asteroid about 65 million years ago, yet here we are today, clear proof that the earth is resilient and could easily handle the impact of another speeding six-to-ten mile wide space rock were one to be detected. Heck, were that to happen, I think it would be silly to give the imminent impact even so much as a moment's thought or worry. We could all just relax, secure in the knowledge that it's happened before.
A morning look at the CMC. It's consistent if it's anything.
Quoting 322. Sfloridacat5:

A morning look at the CMC. It's consistent if it's anything.

I don't know why people insist on posting this joke of a model for tropical cyclones.
Quoting 295. MahFL:

Upper level steering is straight towards the coast too :






Ida is going OTS once it moves again. I don't see it coming anywhere near the coast.
Quoting 323. washingtonian115:

I don't know why people insist on posting this joke of a model for tropical cyclones.


I don't know why they even still use this model or haven't updated it yet.
Quoting 287. StormTrackerScott:

May not be tropical but there does seem to be a pretty decent low off Daytona Beach. Looks more like the low we saw the first week of November in 2014 off Volusia County.




Seems to be organizing pretty well. Some decent rain estimates along the coast in some parts of Volusia like Port Orange, they've gotten around an inch today.
Quoting 323. washingtonian115:

I don't know why people insist on posting this joke of a model for tropical cyclones.


It's for entertainment purposes. Did you not get the comment about the CMC being "consistent." Unfortunately, it's consistently wrong.


Quoting 326. Stoopid1:



Seems to be organizing pretty well. Some decent rain estimates along the coast in some parts of Volusia like Port Orange, they've gotten around an inch today.


You talking about something subtropical?

The NHC has their chances 10/10


i see two lows spinning here
Yesterday's estimated precipitation. 4.9" estimate down in extreme S. Fl (Everglades).
It remains to be seen. Can puny human political noise turn an indescribably complex and massive natural system ? I will be surprised if this clamor proves capable of reducing the rise in earth's temps by one tenth of one degree C. (I hope that I am ultimately surprised, but until then, I remain pessimistic)
333. MahFL
Quoting 324. FunnelVortex:



Ida is going OTS once it moves again. I don't see it coming anywhere near the coast.


I was talking about the blob of off Jacksonville.
334. MahFL
My Firefox just updated and I had a hard time getting logged into Wunderground.
Quoting 282. Sandy82579:

Relax folks. Climate scientists like to post these graphs and exclude what CO2 concentrations have been on earth in the past. They only look at recent events. From the report cited below, "Reconstruction of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the last 65 million years shows that there have been periods when this greenhouse gas was vastly more abundant than today. For example, between the Paleocene and Eocene, around 50 to 55 million of years ago, it was about 2000 ppm." That's 4 times the levels we're seeing today. Chicken little again. You can read the report here:

https://claudiocassardo.wordpress.com/2013/05/10/ an-epochal-symbolic-threshold-the-co2-concentratio n-at-mauna-loa-has-exceeded-400-ppm/

The report also states, "Earth experienced for the last time an atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide of 400 ppm about three millions years ago, i.e. before the appearance of the so-called Homo sapiens. At that time, the temperatures were 3-4 deg.C higher than now, and the sea level was about 25 meters higher than now." Note that this was before man even existed.

The earth has dealt with this type of climate change many times. At the end of the last ice age 19,000 years ago, sea levels rose 421 feet. The earth is resilient and will handle what is occurring now. Relax.
Interesting numbers there. Sea levels rose 421 feet at the end of the Ice Age 19,000.? So your saying that it took about 2.8 million years for the sea to rise 421 ft..?
Quoting 219. sar2401:

I agree with the general concept of electric vehicles becoming a bigger share of the market but CR is doing a little sales pitch because they want that to happen. The average cost of electricity per KWH in the US is about 12.5 cents. It's much worse if you look at costs in the high population markets of the Northeast, where it's more like 14.5 cents to 18 cents. It's even worse in the Los Angeles market, where the price is about 20 cents. The real advantage is the price of gasoline is also much higher than the US average in these markets, which helps to offset the higher electricity costs.


One of the things that worries me here is that I paid 10c per KWH in 1983 and I'm not paying much more now (15c I think_. When will electricity prices also skyrocket as other energy costs have?

BTW water out of the tap here in College Park is a penny a gallon, one of the most expensive rates in the U.S.

Quoting 334. MahFL:

My Firefox just updated and I had a hard time getting logged into Wunderground.
That's because it's fire fox
Quoting 306. ricderr:

"The earth has dealt with this type of climate change many times. At the end of the last ice age 19,000 years ago, sea levels rose 421 feet. The earth is resilient and will handle what is occurring now. Relax."

I'm sure the earth will handle it just fine, its the 7.2 +billions of people inhabiting it now that won't do so well!




here's what just a 200' rise would do on our east coast...affecting more than a third of the US population......not to mention even more calamity in other parts of the world....double that to 400...the map below....you would triple the impact areas..


well stated cape




If this happens,I will be long gone and so will everyone else and grand kids before this happens.
Quoting 257. Naga5000:


Studies on the matter conclude that cars charged on the grid have lower effective emissions than gasoline powered cars, and that does not take into account places that get some or a majority of their power from renewables. Nor does it measure human health benefits from reduced emissions like less smog and particulates in city settings. Again, marginal benefit should not mean inaction. This is a weaning process, not cold turkey.

The CO2 produced when charging electric vehicles on the grid may be (?) lower than what gas emissions would be, but it is not zero. Can you imagine if everyone in FL or Los Angeles owned electric cars and all of them plugged in their cars at 6 pm? Point is, there are other considerations in the overall "save the planet" (coined more than 40 years ago, btw - but not by me) movement. I'm for a solar powered vehicle. I suppose the technology's not quite there yet.

Tesla's making money off a man's name and off all the guilty rich people who want to feel like they are doing something about "global warming." Say lah.
Quoting 338. victoria780:

If this happens,I will be long gone and so will everyone else and grand kids before this happens.


Sweet! Someone else's problem, so let's don't worry about it.
Quoting 339. Barefootontherocks:

... Can you imagine if everyone in FL or Los Angeles owned electric cars and all of them plugged in their cars at 6 pm? ... I'm for a solar powered vehicle. I suppose the technology's not quite there yet.


An electric vehicle can be a solar powered vehicle. You just need solar panels and a battery storage system at your house. The battery storage system is really the only thing that is too expensive today, but there are companies working on that.

A company near me has just built for their employees a shaded parking lot where the canopies are covered in solar panels and any employee that wants free EV charging while they're at work can have it from the sun.
Woah...

The GOM system start in the NW Caribbean then crosses yucatan and exits N yucatan coast according to the models

If the system stays within the NW Caribbean and then move through the yucatan channel into the E GOM (which to be honest I think this situation will happen) it will pick up some intensity some really extremely high TC heat potential/oceanic heat content in the NW Caribbean

Quoting 321. Neapolitan:

Yeah, really. Our planet was hit by a massive asteroid about 65 million years ago, yet here we are today, clear proof that the earth is resilient and could easily handle the impact of another speeding six-to-ten mile wide space rock were one to be detected. Heck, were that to happen, I think it would be silly to give the imminent impact even so much as a moment's thought or worry. We could all just relax, secure in the knowledge that it's happened before.
Its good to smile first thing in the morning....Its rare, but we get some unusual comments here.


While the BOC and central and western and NorthEasten GOM are well less than dismay to be honest
Quoting 345. wunderkidcayman:

While the BOC and central and western GOM are well less than dismay to be honest
Don't say that. I want some fun too
Quoting 340. sonofagunn:



Sweet! Someone else's problem, so let's don't worry about it.
I am going to worry about it,When I wake up tomorrow ,Im going to buy sandbags.
Quoting 344. hydrus:

Its good to smile first thing in the morning....Its rare, but we get some unusual comments here.

That kind of comment is mainstream in many an outlet.
If it's crazy then half or more of mankind is.
Which I tend to believe, or rather even 90%.
-removed double post-
Quoting 346. HurricaneAndre:

Don't say that. I want some fun too


Look at the map I posted
Quoting 342. FunnelVortex:

Woah...




Bring it on!
Quoting 343. wunderkidcayman:

The GOM system start in the NW Caribbean then crosses yucatan and exits N yucatan coast according to the models

If the system stays within the NW Caribbean and then move through the yucatan channel into the E GOM (which to be honest I think this situation will happen) it will pick up some intensity some really extremely high TC heat potential/oceanic heat content in the NW Caribbean




This potential system could form just about anywhere from the NW Caribbean to the GOM. Wind shear of 20-30kts should prevent it from becomming too strong. Looks like a potential rainmaker from FL to LA.

And btw, the GFS develops this off the NW tip of the YP and takes it northward.
Quoting 339. Barefootontherocks:

The CO2 produced when charging electric vehicles on the grid may be (?) lower than what gas emissions would be, but it is not zero. Can you imagine if everyone in FL or Los Angeles owned electric cars and all of them plugged in their cars at 6 pm? Point is, there are other considerations in the overall "save the planet" (coined more than 40 years ago, btw - but not by me) movement. I'm for a solar powered vehicle. I suppose the technology's not quite there yet.

Tesla's making money off a man's name and off all the guilty rich people who want to feel like they are doing something about "global warming." Say lah.
Good morning Barefoot. Electric cars are coming regardless. Many people know for a fact that coal and oil will be phased out, its a fact. The big oil and coal companies know this ya see, and it will reduce profits....significantly.
Quoting 351. DavidHOUTX:



Bring it on!


And the low comes from the SSW, comes right over my house in Wisconsin while intensifying. Just the track and intensity that I love.

But it's over 300 hours out so probably won't happen.
Quoting 252. Naga5000:



it is silly, it is the equivalent of asking why the small passenger car doesn't also make breakfast while you drive to work. It isn't supposed to, it isn't designed to, and it is not its purpose. Of course big truck transport is an issue, although proportionally it is a much smaller one than the 225 million passenger vehicles in the U.S. Your view seems to be if we cannot solve all of the problem at once we shouldn't solve any aspect of the problem.* (bold added here) That seems very self defeating. As for the bus comment, you fail to realize that some cities, like Orlando, lack the developed infrastructure and funds to have a fully functioning public transit system that allows for a reliable alternative to driving. We rely on a highway system here. So maybe, just maybe, small changes in the way we live by slowing getting off fossil fuels and combustion engines will begin to make a difference. Or we can not do anything worthwhile because we fail to solve the entirety of the transportation issue because an electric car is not a truck. Your logic is quite stunning and just as silly as expecting the electric car to be a truck.

Edit: Quite frankly, the scenario you propose is also part of the problem, factory farming and fast food. But we can leave that for another silly comment.

A. I did not propose a scenario. I've been doing things to "green" this planet since 1975!

B. Most ranchers who run smallish herds are not part of "factory farming." In fact, they often produce what is called "natural" and "organic" beef - at least where I live. How would you propose they get their product to market - a CO2 emission-saving cattle prod? They need large pickup truck alternatives not a law against one tons.

C. CO2 emission r/t food supply chain needs to be addressed.

D. Fail to realize? You fail to realize I've seen many cities in this country that failed to plan, but I've never seen one of any size that does not have public transportation that would be improved schedule, time and location-wise by heavier ridership.

How about the feds step in and ration gas (as was done during WW II) in large cities where public transportation is available? That would help, wouldn't it? The real problem r/t personal vehicles is people in the U.S. view it as a freedom and a right to be able to go anywhere they want at any time they want.

E. Difficult to have a discussion with you as you tend to assume anyone who counters your view point is wrong and either stupid, uninformed, or naive. Kenfra03 made a good point that sparked a lot of discussion. (npi)
add:
F. *That is not my thought. That is YOUR wrong assumption/interpretation. As usual.
Quoting 351. DavidHOUTX:



Bring it on!
Yep...If that happens, it will be earlier then last year.
Quoting 339. Barefootontherocks:

The CO2 produced when charging electric vehicles on the grid may be (?) lower than what gas emissions would be, but it is not zero. Can you imagine if everyone in FL or Los Angeles owned electric cars and all of them plugged in their cars at 6 pm? Point is, there are other considerations in the overall "save the planet" (coined more than 40 years ago, btw - but not by me) movement. I'm for a solar powered vehicle. I suppose the technology's not quite there yet.

Tesla's making money off a man's name and off all the guilty rich people who want to feel like they are doing something about "global warming." Say lah.


You aren't wrong, but if everyone in FL or L.A. owned an electric car, it would force grid improvements to handle it. I believe that would be the infamous invisible hand at work. Also, there are many plug in electrics on the market now, not just Tesla. My point was from the beginning that obviously electric vehicles aren't for every use or person, but they provide an immediate way to reduce emissions while keeping the fears of green meaning no economic growth at bay. As the technology moves forward, that cattle trailer towing electric truck is right around the corner, as is the improved grid, and higher use of renewables to generate electricity. It is A pathway forward.
Quoting 353. hydrus:

Good morning Barefoot. Electric cars are coming regardless. Many people know for a fact that coal and oil will be phased out, its a fact. The big oil and coal companies know this ya see, and it will reduce profits....significantly.
I'm not arguing against electric cars, just wondering on the effects of their use by the masses and how it would affect the grid. Grids already have problems with high air-con use. You've gotta have a strong enough grid that is powered in a low-CO2 emitting manner to support legions of electric cars.

Coal, yeah. Oil and natural gas, a different story altogether because of massive dependence in every sector worldwide.
I am getting married outdoors on Oct 3rd in Raleigh so I am gonna need any systems trying to form to go ahead and avoid that area. Thanks Mother Nature!
Quoting 356. hydrus:

Yep...If that happens, it will be earlier then last year.


Should I start wishcasting winter storms early? :)
Quoting 348. cRRKampen:


That kind of comment is mainstream in many an outlet.
If it's crazy then half or more of mankind is.
Which I tend to believe, or rather even 90%.

Crazy is a very loosely used word, and I have seen good and bad in people who have a tendency to be that way.
Quoting 355. Barefootontherocks:


A. I did not propose a scenario. I've been doing things to "green" this planet since 1975!

B. Most ranchers who run smallish herds are not part of "factory farming." In fact, they often produce what is called "natural" and "organic" beef - at least where I live. How would you propose they get their product to market - a CO2 emission-saving cattle prod? They need large pickup truck alternatives not a law against one tons.

C. CO2 emission r/t food supply chain needs to be addressed.

D. Fail to realize? You fail to realize I've seen many cities in this country that failed to plan, but I've never seen one of any size that does not have public transportation that would be improved schedule, time and location-wise by heavier ridership.

How about the feds step in and ration gas (as was done during WW II) in large cities where public transportation is available? That would help, wouldn't it? The real problem r/t personal vehicles is people in the U.S. view it as a freedom and a right to be able to go anywhere they want at any time they want.

E. Difficult to have a discussion with you as you tend to assume anyone who counters your view point is wrong and either stupid, uninformed, or naive. Kenfra03 made a good point that sparked a lot of discussion. (npi)


Discussion with you, as always, is pointless. It is impossible to respond to such a gish gallop loaded with assumptions and straw men without wasting all of our times. Have a good day BF.
2015, the Year the Climate Strikes back
There appears only one guaranteed solution: hydrogen for fuel cells from electricity generated by nuclear plants and renewables. No CO2 or smog.
Quoting 360. FunnelVortex:



Should I start wishcasting winter storms early? :)
Actually, you would be doing me a favor..Thats if you could wish them to come much later.....as opposed to earlier.
Quoting 360. FunnelVortex:



Should I start wishcasting winter storms early? :)

As long as you keep them on your side of Lake Michigan!!!


Hey guys, it's September.
And this is the "I" storm...
Quoting 363. Patrap:

2015, the Year the Climate Strikes back
Yep...and something tells me it will be striking next year too.
If one could put just 10% of their BS and quips into a simple search, one could realize much is being done to wean off the Oil teats.

This 100 Percent Electric Eighteen-Wheeler Just Hit The Road In Germany
BY ARI PHILLIPS JUL 9, 2015 12:49PM


This is my all-time favorite cyclogenesis forecast map.

Quoting 297. beell:



Back when you and I were young, remember when the cattle had to walk to market?
:)

I'd have died to live in those times.

(Not his words but mine today to honor Yogi Berra. May he rest in peace. What a character, great catcher and someone who truly understood the mystical games of baseball and life.)
Quoting 365. hydrus:

Actually, you would be doing me a favor..Thats if you could wish them to come much later.....as opposed to earlier.


I think we may see some early winter storms. But what falls early will probably melt soon after anyways.

I honestly don't see long term accumulations happening until mid or mid-late December this year.
Quoting 369. Patrap:

If one could put just 10% of their BS and quips into a simple search, one could realize much is being done to wean off the Oil teats.

This 100 Percent Electric Eighteen-Wheeler Just Hit The Road In Germany
BY ARI PHILLIPS JUL 9, 2015 12:49PM



Is it solar-charged? Oh, no I see what it says...
"The 40-ton truck has a range of about 62 miles per charge, which takes three or four hours. Its first deployment will entail transporting vehicle components - such as shock absorbers, springs and steering systems - over stretches of less than two miles across Munich seven times a day."

PS. Plugging masses of vehicles into the electric grid - I question the feasibility. Not the intent. Have a nice day.
signed,
bf BS quipper
Quoting 369. Patrap:

If one could put just 10% of their BS and quips into a simple search, one could realize much is being done to wean off the Oil teats.

This 100 Percent Electric Eighteen-Wheeler Just Hit The Road In Germany
BY ARI PHILLIPS JUL 9, 2015 12:49PM



Very superb post Pat...Got some more, posting facts speeds up the blog, helps move things along.
Quoting 366. TroutMadness:


As long as you keep them on your side of Lake Michigan!!!


lol, I wish for them every year. As long as I see one or two well-organized extratropical storms coming through brining snow (like we did in 2010, 2011, and 2012) I'm satisfied.

What I don't like is the subzero temperatures and dryness that comes in January.


Does anyone else see two naked swirls? Might just be an illusion -- anyways it seems to be racing towards convection.

Quoting 376. Articuno:



Does anyone else see two naked swirls?




Ida's center has relocated how many times already?

Well it's doing it again.
Quoting 372. FunnelVortex:



I think we may see some early winter storms. But what falls early will probably melt soon after anyways.

I honestly don't see long term accumulations happening until mid or mid-late December this year.
I am not worried about accumulations. The October storms have been doing considerable wind damage here. I have a mountain of branches and trees that we have not had time to move.
Quoting 375. FunnelVortex:



lol, I wish for them every year. As long as I see one or two well-organized extratropical storms coming through brining snow (like we did in 2010, 2011, and 2012) I'm satisfied.

What I don't like is the subzero temperatures and dryness that comes in January.

Snow for the sleds is okay, (mine aren't really running right now though) but I agree on the subzero - saw -38 at my pws last winter!!! Brrrrr
Quoting 374. hydrus:

Very superb post Pat...Got some more, posting facts speeds up the blog, helps move things along.


I try to toss some enlightenment onto the scene when I can. I have been busy grant writing as that is what keeps me afloat mostly.

That and Portlight work as well.

Lotsa good things are coming as we see the Global responce is finally getting the message from the obs and trends.

381. MahFL
Quoting 353. hydrus:

Many people know for a fact that coal and oil will be phased out, its a fact...


There are 100's of years of coal and oil reserves.
Electric cars & trucks, solar panels, small scale / river-flow (no dams) hydro-electricity, nuclear electricity, etc., etc.. ..... 
Ladies and Gentlemen –– please look again at figure #1 in Bob Henson's Blog entry above.
The Blue Line –– EU28 –– says it all.
It can be done ..... all you need is the will to do it.
So long as the Major Corporations are allowed to dictate Global Policies to the Politicians North America is no better than China –– worse per capita.

Quoting 381. MahFL:



There are 100's of years of coal and oil reserves.
Oh really, well a lot of that stuff will stay right where it is...Its true , believe me.
The Earths labor pains are getting closer together. When she delivers....look out!
Quoting 378. hydrus:

I am not worried about accumulations. The October storms have been doing considerable wind damage here. I have a mountain of branches and trees that we have not had time to move.


You should have a bonfire one of these weekends :)


But I know stronger storms can leave a mess, but I like them anyways.
Quoting 380. Patrap:



I try to toss some enlightenment onto the scene when I can. I have been busy grant writing as that is what keeps me afloat mostly.

That and Portlight work as well.

Lotsa good things are coming as we see the Global responce is finally getting the message from the obs and trends.


It is being put into terms and language now that lay people can understand.. There are folks who are not as scientifically minded, but want to know the facts. WU and others are doing a good job at this.
Quoting 385. FunnelVortex:



You should have a bonfire one of these weekends :)


But I know stronger storms can leave a mess, but I like them anyways.
Thats comforting to know.
388. NNYer
Quoting 354. FunnelVortex:



And the low comes from the SSW, comes right over my house in Wisconsin while intensifying. Just the track and intensity that I love.

But it's over 300 hours out so probably won't happen.


It definitely won't happen. Long range can be cool to look at, I guess, but... no, its not worth thinking much about.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF WE BURNED ALL THE FOSSIL FUELS ON EARTH?

WE'LL BURN THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE COME TO IT
By Mary Beth Griggs Posted September 11, 2015


A new study published today in Science Advances finds that if we burn all of the remaining fossil fuels on Earth, almost all of the ice in Antarctica will melt, potentially causing sea levels to rise by as much as 200 feet--enough to drown most major cities in the world.


Quoting 286. Inyo:

The question isn't whether 'the earth' can handle it. The question is what will happen to humans. if all the ice caps melt a huge proportion of cities and farmland will be flooded. if it warms 4C, agricultural areas will shift greatly causing famine, and storm tracks will shift greatly causing severe flood and drought. Of course some animals and plants will survive but I don't think that's the worry here? Honestly climate change is more a social than environmental issue.

Millions of years ago the earth was full of swamps and rain forests and shallow seas - great conditions for giant insects and dinosaurs and alligators, etc. Not so great for our species.


This may not be such a bad thing, we will just have to learn how to adapt. Their is really nothing we can do to about Natural Climate Change (NCC), now all of the air, and water pollution, along with overpopulation that is some thing we can control.
Happy Autumn Equinox with love and heart-shaped baby broccoli sprouts!

Quoting 375. FunnelVortex:



lol, I wish for them every year. As long as I see one or two well-organized extratropical storms coming through brining snow (like we did in 2010, 2011, and 2012) I'm satisfied.

What I don't like is the subzero temperatures and dryness that comes in January.
Wishing for that tells me you definitely into the weather.
Quoting 373. Barefootontherocks:

Is it solar-charged? Oh, no I see what it says...
"The 40-ton truck has a range of about 62 miles per charge, which takes three or four hours. Its first deployment will entail transporting vehicle components - such as shock absorbers, springs and steering systems - over stretches of less than two miles across Munich seven times a day."

PS. Plugging masses of vehicles into the electric grid - I question the feasibility. Not the intent. Have a nice day.
signed,
bf BS quipper


Wouldn't most cars charge up at night when people are sleeping and electricity use is low? That seems feasible to me.
Quoting 387. hydrus:

Thats comforting to know.


Yeah, I'm one of those *weird* people.
The warming from Fossil Fuel burning continues unabated...as we have changed the atmosphere greatly the last 50 years.

This is not my Fathers, nor the atmosphere of my childhood.

This is Earth Atmo 2.0, a terraforming in progress.

The last time the Earth warmed 7 C, it took 5000 years.

We're on a Path to do it in less than 400.

With 150 of them years now behind us.

Welcome to the Anthropocene






Quoting 390. NativeSun:

This may not be suck a bad thing, we will just have to learn how to adapt. Their is really nothing we can do to about Natural Climate Change (NCC), now all of the air, and water pollution, along with overpopulation that is some thing we can control.
One issue is that people are thinking this would have happened anyway regardless of our presence, so why all the banter..One can surmise by the data coming in that something is afoot, and we are part of the problem ,and now ts receiving more important attention...which I believe is good.
We are losing species at a rate 1000 times faster than at any time in past,

Nothing can adapt to the rate of change we are inducing.




Quoting 392. hydrus:

Wishing for that tells me you definitely into the weather.


Yeah, but by March im wishing for spring. :)

I've really been into the weather since I was a child. Once upon on a time when I was in first grade I was terrified of every thunderstorm. That year we had a rather active derecho/thunderstorm season. Lots of warnings that summer. And the weather absolutley terrified me.

But then I began to educate myself about it (I've been reading science books and articles above my reading level since I was in kindergarten) and my terror turned into fascination. Now I find myself watching oncoming storms with enthusiasm.

For a while I wanted to be a meteorologist, but I found out the job doesn't pay well so I'm going for an IT job. I wanted to do stormchasing as being part of a meteorologist. I may take some courses and do stormchasing one day, but I want to get my life going first.

That's my story. :)
Quoting 395. Patrap:

The warming from Fossil Fuel burning continues unabated...as we have changed the atmosphere greatly the last 50 years.

This is not my Fathers, nor the atmosphere of my childhood.

This is Earth Atmo 2.0, a terraforming in progress.

The last time the Earth warmed 7 C, it took 5000 years.

We're on a Path to do it in less than 400.

With 150 of them years now behind us.

Welcome to the Anthropocene







This is true..I myself have seen big changes. grew up sailing and constantly watch the sky, as did many people Ive known , and they talk of the changes that have occurred. People here in TN tell me the winters have gotten shorter and warmer, depsite the past cold winters here, they know it is milder. I would list the changes I see, but I do not have the time now.
Quoting 397. Patrap:

We are losing species at a rate 1000 times faster than at any time in past,

Nothing can adapt to the rate of change we are inducing.







I think we need to realize Earth only lets us live here. It can kill us any time it wants.
Quoting 398. FunnelVortex:



Yeah, but by March im wishing for spring. :)

I've really been into the weather since I was a child. Once upon on a time when I was in first grade I was terrified of every thunderstorm. That year we had a rather active derecho/thunderstorm season. Lots of warnings that summer. And the weather absolutley terrified me.

But then I began to educate myself about it (I've been reading science books and articles above my reading level since I was in kindergarten) and my terror turned into fascination. Now I find myself watching oncoming storms with enthusiasm.

For a while I wanted to be a meteorologist, but I found out the job doesn't pay well so I'm going for an IT job. I wanted to do stormchasing as being part of a meteorologist. I may take some courses and do stormchasing one day, but I want to get my life going first.

That's my story. :)
I have known quite a few Meteorologists over the years, and none of them did it for the money..They had a very high interest on the subject, and chose it for its historical impacts. A few had harrowing stories of past weather events that affected their lives.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good Morning Class!

Throw in the 2nd wettest May on record with the summer record and San Diego is nearing 6" of rain since May 1.......pretty awesome! Normal rainfall for entire year is 9.90 inches.

Quoting 400. FunnelVortex:



I think we need to realize Earth only lets us live here. It can kill us any time it wants.


I think a majority of people here do know that, but no sense in increasing the odds that it will.
Quoting 393. weathergirl2001:

Wouldn't most vehicles be charging overnight when electricity use is low? That seems fe

Wouldn't most cars charge up at night when people are sleeping and electricity use is low? That seems feasible to me.
Only if government regulated it that way, and that would be akin to gas rationing. Still, if all passenger cars were replaced right now with electric, I see chaos on the grids. Electric grids across the U.S. will need to be stronger to support mass use of electric cars. And how much will be gained in the end r/t lowered CO2 emissions? Someone already quoted a government study that questioned that. For the time being hybrids may make more sense. What makes most sense at present is decreased dependence on motor vehicles. Public transport, bikes, feet.

Thanks for the comeback question.
Quoting 362. Naga5000:



Discussion with you, as always, is pointless. It is impossible to respond to such a gish gallop loaded with assumptions and straw men without wasting all of our times. Have a good day BF.
Gish gallop. Straw men. If that's all your comeback is, you all need a new writer. I'm certain the comments I wrote in this blog will make sense to many. Maybe someday even to you.

You have a good one also. And remember, that two-mile walk to the store will do you good. You can take a cab home with your groceries. Half the CO2 emissions saved unless you fart monstrously along the way.
Quoting 336. georgevandenberghe:



One of the things that worries me here is that I paid 10c per KWH in 1983 and I'm not paying much more now (15c I think_. When will electricity prices also skyrocket as other energy costs have?

BTW water out of the tap here in College Park is a penny a gallon, one of the most expensive rates in the U.S.




I think the move to privatize electric in MD happened in 2012. Not sure if that happened but if it did, electric rates in other states that privatized triple.
Quoting 396. hydrus:

One issue is that people are thinking this would have happened anyway regardless of our presence, so why all the banter..One can surmise by the data coming in that something is afoot, and we are part of the problem. Now that it is receiving more important attention...which I believe is good.
History has and will repeat itself, and I believe once we stop all air and water pollution, along with overpopulation we will see a reduction of CO2 pollution that is created by humans.
Quoting 409. NativeSun:

History has and will repeat itself, and I believe once we stop all air and water pollution, along with overpopulation we will see a reduction of CO2 pollution that is created by humans.
Yeah, ya would, but as things are now, all can make an effort. Population is an issue, but Earth could support more people...Especially if we dont trash it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure could form by Sunday over the southern
Gulf of Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be slow
to occur while it moves northward early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting 391. aquak9:

Happy Autumn Equinox with love and heart-shaped baby broccoli sprouts!




Nice. Mine were in this stage the second week in July. Expecting it to crop in late October. Broccoli in this stage in DC now will (maybe) overwinter as 8-12" diameter plants and produce a crop in May. Broccoli planted in mid October would be younger and much more likely to survive. Young plants are much more resistant to freeze/thaw cycles than old ones.
Quoting 357. Naga5000:



You aren't wrong, but if everyone in FL or L.A. owned an electric car, it would force grid improvements to handle it. I believe that would be the infamous invisible hand at work. Also, there are many plug in electrics on the market now, not just Tesla. My point was from the beginning that obviously electric vehicles aren't for every use or person, but they provide an immediate way to reduce emissions while keeping the fears of green meaning no economic growth at bay. As the technology moves forward, that cattle trailer towing electric truck is right around the corner, as is the improved grid, and higher use of renewables to generate electricity. It is A pathway forward.
Just saw this. Maybe it's a pathway forward. Only maybe. Because the electic grid will be impacted. You can't fix that afterwards. I like the idea of solar batt recharging stations. General Joe's can't afford that right now.

Oh, dumb me! I didn't know there are other manufacturers of electric cars, and sometimes I lie. Hybrids, electric cars and street-legal golf carts travel the streets where I live. Your point - from where I came in - was to put down as "silly" a comment that brought up electric cars and livestock transportation. Moving food to the marketplace is a large concern for CO2 emission. The US gov't does not have a good handle on the true amount of fuel required and therefore the true amount of CO2 emissions involved. "Surely" this needs to be addressed. I'm glad kenfra brought it up.

(edit) As usual you have made an inaccurate assessment of my stance.* I am trying to be practical and proactive.

The time for discussion of the potential complications that will arise with wide-spread use of electric vehicles is now, not after there is a problem with grid support. But wait, yeah, we can fix the grids after we're forced too --- Yeah, let's figure out exactly how much larger amounts of electric generation will cost the environment --- after we get there and find out there's a problem due to electric generation and widespread use of electric cars has exacerbated not fixed rising CO2. That sounds like a plan! Blinders have brought us we are where we are, so let's just keep the blinders on and hope for enough electricity to run the electric cars.

Get practical. Plan a plan that makes sense, and that it will be a real solution. For electric cars, best hope is for solar-generated charging stations from coast to coast every however many miles it takes between them. Like they did with natural gas powered vehicles a while back. Maybe a soliution is to make all cross-country travel be by public means--- but oh, us independent 'muricans won't handle that very well. Hopefully, someone will invent a hauling semi that does not need a three hour charge every 62 miles. Or something better. How about a giant hovercraft powered by imagination?

Will take a ton of imagination to fix this problem - if it's meant to be fixed.

(*sentence in bold added)
There is uncertainty regarding the actual track of the storm as it approaches the mid-Atlantic on Sunday.
There is a possibility that the track of the system will remain closer to the mid-Atlantic coast, allowing for a windy, rainy and nasty day from the coastal areas to the Interstate 95 corridor from Philadelphia to New York City.
If the track is farther out to sea, the Interstate 95 corridor may be spared from any rainfall while a brief shower will be possible along the coastal areas. Windy conditions, however, will remain along the coast.
The combination of rain and wind will cause poor visibility for motorists.
Coastal Flooding, Other Concerns
The weather pattern will cause northeasterly winds to increase along the middle part of the U.S. coast.
Rough seas and surf will far precede the rain from the storm.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski, "As winds pick up, seas will build and rip currents will increase between high pressure to the north and the storm to the south."
As of Tuesday, seas have built to 6-10 feet off the North Carolina and Virginia coasts.
Winds along the coast can gust past 40 mph.
Gusty winds and low cloud ceilings could cause delays for departing flights.
In addition to the rough seas and stiff winds, some beach erosion and coastal flooding could occur due to the long-duration and slow-moving storm from Tybee Island, Georgia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey.
In the area from northeastern North Carolina to New Jersey, the effects of the storm will coincide with the proximity of the full supermoon and high astronomical tides.
Atlantic coast communities and property owners along the back bays may want to take preventative action.
Tides generated by the storm may run about 2 feet above published levels.
"The astronomical tides are accounted for in publications," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams said. "However, the astronomical part of the tides this weekend will be higher than most days of the year."
The combination of high astronomical tides and storm tide can cause inundation in areas that typically do not have flooding from either a spring tide or from a storm.
Bathers, boaters and cruise ships will need to exercise caution and heed advisories as they are issued. Many of the beaches do not have lifeguards on duty this late in the season. Rip currents will be much stronger and more frequent than average.
Just as residents, vacationers and cruise interests along the U.S. southern Atlantic coast should monitor the weather this week, people from the U.S. Gulf Coast to southeastern Mexico should keep an eye on the tropics next week.
There is some indication that a tropical system may form near the Yucatan Peninsula and drift northward into the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Meanwhile, Ida will continue to churn waters in the central Atlantic. However, Ida is not a threat to any land areas at this time.
Have you read the latest NASA report? There is no such thing as global warming/climate change.