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Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:15 AM GMT on August 19, 2007

Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean? The official forecast and nearly all of the computer models have put Jamaica in the bulls-eye for several days now. But hurricanes have a funny way of taking 11th-hour wobbles that spare the island a direct hit. Witness the remarkable turn Hurricane Ivan took in 2004, as it headed directly for the island with 145 mph winds. Ivan took a sudden turn 35 miles from the island, traced out an exact outline of the island's coast 35 miles offshore, then resumed its previous track. In the Jamaica Observer, Custos of Kingston, Reverend Carmen Stewart, contends that it was not the first time that prayers had influenced the turn of events when disaster faced Jamaica. "It has happened time and time again," Reverend Stewart says. "I know people have been praying and I don't see any other reason why it (the hurricane) would make such a drastic turn.... God hears prayer."


Figure 1. Hurricane Ivan as it miraculously skirted the island of Jamaica. Image credit: jamaicancaves.org.

Category 5 Hurricane Allen took an odd wobble around the island, too, but Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 did not. Can Jamaicans pray away Hurricane Dean? Well, the recent motion of Dean has been more due west, which may bring the storm just south of the island. Keep praying, Jamaica!

Links to follow over the next day:
Radar in Pilon, Cuba.
Radar from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic observations (east tip of the island).
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic observations.
Kingston, Jamaica observations.
Montego Bay, Jamaica observations.

I'll have an update by noon Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Hurricane Dean near the island Puerto Rico
Hurricane Dean near the island Puerto Rico
the ciclonic surge hard mind in Salinas,Puerto Rico mines the Community Las Ochenta in the south of Puerto Rico

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ty hop

i read about this tornadocane a couple of yrs ago and erins radar signature reminded me of it. if the remants start to deepen, it can spell a bad tornado outbreak for the area. im surprised WUs surface map doesnt show a low there.
It is a very small and compact low, that's why it's missed. :(
Their pressures probably have not been reset to compensate for their altitude above sea level...
1504. LLJ
...OK/KS/MO/AR...
COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TODAY OVER THE UNITED
STATES...WITH TROUGHS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES
AND REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS TROPICAL CIRCULATION RE-INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN OK AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND
EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. OVERALL SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE WEAKENING AGAIN...BUT VAD/PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAIN RATHER STRONG. LARGE ANVIL CANOPY WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK TODAY. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S WILL MAINTAIN MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG AND SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES NEAR
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN MO LATER
TONIGHT.
1505. jfks
amateur question here. Could the strengthening of the remnants of erin erode the High that is projected to build in the SE US enough to steer Dean northward?
1506. IKE
Posted By: JPV at 7:49 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
Posted By: IKE

Kingsridge OK - 28.94 in / 979.9 hPa
Piedmont, OK - 28.41 in / 962.0 hPa
Midwest City, OK - 28.41 in / 962.0 hPa
NWOKC, OK - 29.55 in / 1000.6 hPa

Their personal weather stations and the barometric pressure readings aren't set accurately.

All of them? LOL!


Yes...all of them.

Here's a listing for Oklahoma...note the accurate pressure readings vs. the one inaccurate one listed at Fort Sill,OK...it's not accurate.....

Link
I have said it here numerous times since I started posting on this blog, but I'll say it again.

Many of the islands have fewer hurricane related deaths, not because there are fewer people or they are "lucky", but because wherever possible island residents build their homes differently. The reason? WE CAN'T EVACUATE. We have nowhere to go when a storm arrives. So, we have (in the Bahamas at least) generally followed some building practices to give us a better chance to survive.

1. Don't build right on the shore. That's why shorelines are so readily available on these isands. The local people tend to build 300 - 400 feet away from the shoreline, if that close.
2. Build on a ridge. Out here there isn't anything over 210 feet, but lots of little "sand dune" type hills relatively near the shore. You build not that, not the flat land.
3. Build with stone / concrete as far as possible. In the old days more people build with wood because it was all they could afford. These days, when life is a little more prosperous here, very few people choose wood over concrete. Also, there are some stronger building codes in place here than used to be seen in FL (I think our codes are still better than FL's updated codes). This includes steel reinforcement of walls and more thorough tie-downs of roofs. Construction costs here still are generally lower than in the US, at least partially because the government has written off taxes on building supplies to many of the Family Islands.

This is why when I saw someone saying last night that "thousands will die" in JA I was a bit sceptical. I know things are tough there, but I do believe most people who have even the slightest opportunity have built with more than wood. I also have a feeling that people in JA will make a bit more of an effort to be their "neighbours' keeper" when it comes to the storm. That is, if their house is secure, they would help others whose house is not.

1508. IKE
Posted By: HopquickSteve at 7:56 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
Moore Oklahoma is now reporting 28.50 in / 965.0 hPa. IKE this is the 3rd reading below 970 on three different barometers. Either this is a fluke or we have a "inland tropical storm"


It's a personal weather station...the pressure is not set accurately.
Link

I think this ULL is gonna play a bigger role in Deans path watch the outer edges of the feeder bands start to get sheared north when they interact with this ULL Bad Link it is the water vapor link of the NHC of the gulf
Woodward, OK -- 27.98 in / 947.4 hPa...all these readings are rediculous. Shrug.
TayTay,

You don't pray INSTEAD of preparing; you pray WHILE you are preparing . . ..
Pretty windy here in Cayman. Beautiful bright and sunny day....with passing cirrus and nimbus clouds. We are making our last minute preps....I just came down from the roof for a quick spot check. The forecast path is better for us than it was 24 hours ago for sure...but still....too close for comfort. A slight wobble north would place us in grave danger. Looks like teh center will cross very close to the south of Jamaica. Good luck to all fellow Caymanians and Jamaicans!
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:10 PM EDT on August 18, 2007
Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean? The official forecast and nearly all of the computer models have put Jamaica in the bulls-eye for several days now. But hurricanes have a funny way of taking 11th-hour wobbles that spare the island a direct hit. Witness the remarkable turn Hurricane Ivan took in 2004, as it headed directly for the island with 145 mph winds. Ivan took a sudden turn 35 miles from the island, traced out an exact outline of the island's coast 35 miles offshore, then resumed its previous track. In the Jamaica Observer, Custos of Kingston, Reverend Carmen Stewart, contends that it was not the first time that prayers had influenced the turn of events when disaster faced Jamaica. "It has happened time and time again," Reverend Stewart says. "I know people have been praying and I don't see any other reason why it (the hurricane) would make such a drastic turn.... God hears prayer."


This is our reality. Jamaica has a history of storms which ARE coming and then they get prayed away. In recent years we have had:

1996 - Marco (turned around about 3 times)
1998 - Mitch (killed over 10,000 in the Yucatan after taking a right angle turn away from us)
2001 - Iris (my last child was born this night:-)
2002 - Isidore and Lily
2004 - Charley and Ivan
2005 - Dennis and Emily

The one exception in the last 50 years was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.


Nick I have to say Jam has been so lucky over the years. Its amazing to see how so many storm suddenly dip south and just skirt the island! Hope it does the same this time!
1515. PBG00
You don't pray INSTEAD of preparing; you pray WHILE you are preparing . .

Well said
hey tay tay...lol just wanted to say that.

here is a good loop to see the ULL and the ridge above Dean Link
1517. LLJ
It is possible to be recording those pressures in Oklahoma while within a severe thunderstorm. Over all though the ambient pressure is around 1006mb.
1518. JPV
Posted By: nickmini

This is our reality. Jamaica has a history of storms which ARE coming and then they get prayed away.


Well... he does seem to be jogging south in the latest radar.
Did anyone predict an eye over OK City? Didn't thing so. That should let everyone know not to listen to 99.9999999 % forecast from anyone. Don't mean that in an ugly way. These storms are getting screwy. Keep those eyes and minds open.
1520. IKE
Dean is headed right for Jamaica...continues moving north of west. It's within 100-120 miles from the east coast.
1521. calder
I don't believe prayer can influence a hurricane but hey, believe what u will... Good luck from Scotland (we are lucky people!), feeling for jamaica and cayman...
"thousands will die in JA"!!?? highly unlikely, not even hundereds, when Ivan passed i think we had 1 death...maybe, no we'll do alright, heck i ddnt even go to the supermaket last night, i went to a club instead, im sure il b able to get whatever i need after teh hurricane passes, on that note tho, still nothing on land just yet, still calm, light intermittent rainfall
Posted By: BahaHurican at 1:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

You don't pray INSTEAD of preparing; you pray WHILE you are preparing . . ..



100% TRUTH
1524. LLJ
Storm DEAN: Observed By Air Force #304
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 110KT (126.5mph 203.7km/h) In SE Quadrant At 12:15:20 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 99.0KT (113.9mph 183.4km/h) *
Misc Remarks: MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 142 KT @ 12:27:20Z
Date/Time of Recon Report: Sunday, August 19, 2007 8:19:00 AM (Sun, 19 Aug 2007 12:19:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 16 44' N 074 23' W (16.7N 74.4W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2445m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 125KT (143.75MPH 231.5km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 23nm (26.45miles) From Center At Bearing 127
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 110KT (126.5mph 203.7km/h) From 206
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 13nm (15.0 miles) From Center At Bearing 115
Minimum pressure: 923mb (27.26in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Concentric (Two Eyewalls) , CO16-34
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
Having survived Hurricane Katrina in Gulfport Mississippi, I just want to say my thoughts and prayers are with those in Dean's path.

1526. LLJ
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Concentric (Two Eyewalls) ,
1527. Scoopy
LLJ,

Thanks forthe recon flight data!! :)
1528. JPV
How common is it for a Hurricane to have two eyewalls?
My thoughts and prayers go out to anyone in Dean's path.
It looks like (and I know it's still too early to tell) the U.S. will most likely dodge the bullet.
1530. IKE
Posted By: GangstaNerd at 8:08 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
"thousands will die in JA"!!?? highly unlikely, not even hundereds, when Ivan passed i think we had 1 death...maybe, no we'll do alright, heck i ddnt even go to the supermaket last night, i went to a club instead, im sure il b able to get whatever i need after teh hurricane passes, on that note tho, still nothing on land just yet, still calm, light intermittent rainfall


Did you read Dr. Masters blog? Ivan veered off right before a Jamaica landfall.

I hope that the eye doesn't pass over your island. The devistation could be catastrophic.
Posted By: LLJ at 9:12 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Concentric (Two Eyewalls) ,


Where did you see that?
The good people of Jamaca need to prepare for a direct hit and hope and pray for a near miss. Stay safe!
the inner eyewall is disappearing. give dean a couple hours and the ERC will be done
OKC weather observations from NOAA show OKC pressures hovering in the 1006-1007mb range.

Link
the cmc has dean going up the sea of cortez and another storm hiting daytonal beach.
1536. calder
JPV- common in major hurricanes going through eyewall replacement cycles...
You don't pray INSTEAD of preparing; you pray WHILE you are preparing
and after you have prepared..while you wait
000
URNT12 KNHC 191309
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/12:19:10Z
B. 16 deg 44 min N
074 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2445 m
D. 125 kt
E. 127 deg 23 nm
F. 206 deg 110 kt
G. 115 deg 013 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 11 C/ 3036 m
J. 19 C/ 3046 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO16-34
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 02
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SE QUAD 12:15:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 142 KT @ 12:27:20Z


ok looks like we now have a cat 5
1539. LLJ
97 miles SE from Kingston, Jamaica......71.3 mph wind from the NNE.
1540. LLJ
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 125KT (143.75MPH 231.5km/h)
Though Ivan did not make landfall (it literally came up to about a foot away at the southern most point) it passed the entire length of Jamaica at 0-2kmh at cat 4-5. The wind intensity and strength was much higher and longer in duration than the direct hit of Gilbert in 1988. The difference was that there were many building code violations in 1988 (having not had a hurricane in 37 years) and buidlings were not ready for that cat 3 storm. We learned our lesson and have become very rigid with building practices. Even with a direct hit there will not be a repeat of Gilbert.
Does anyone have the link for the CMC long range model? When is Dean supposed to make a pass at Jamaca?
Can the ull in gom tempt erin remnants south? could that then have an effect on dean's movement?

educated guesses?
taz sfc winds are still about 145mph, it appears that dean is either still undergoing the previous ERC or is undergoing another one
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 142 KT
then let's pray away everything, from cancer to terrorism.

we get blasted on this site for saying the slightest, unprovable thing. we make one simple statement without encyclopedic facts and the throngs come rushing in to kick us in our behinds but folks come in, well meaning I am sure, and say things like "This is proof prayer works" and 1 person barely speaks up and says let's keep the blog clear or religion.

Let's.

Pray if it helps, prepare because it 'will' help for certain. But come on folks, if I said I am praying for it to hit a certain place you'd all freak. So saying I can pray it away should illicit the same incredulous reply. I am sure many many people have prayed to to be spared and weren't. Katrina. Camille. Andrew. Rita. Wilma (I know for one, because I did some praying that night). But when they came and ripped us to shreds, well then it was a different story. "It's not that prayer didn't work, it's just that the answer was no" or "There was a lesson to learn for those people, that is why it didn't get prayed away." This is an unneccessary exclamation that doesn't really fit here. It would open up huge arguments about the steerability and amendability of forces we can't agree on, or even know exist. Let's spare ourselves this slippery slope. I don't mean disrespect because I have beliefs too. Just not here. Just a an opinion.
taz those are flight winds
Morning y'all

I see Dean is headed right for Jamaica, does not look like there will be enough southern jogging for them to miss the eye.

Welcome GN. Hope y'all stay safe down there and I hope you are correct. Question I would have is how do you think y'all will fair after the storm? Looting, disease, supplies, etc? Stuff you see anywhere after storms this size?
Definitely on a strengthening trend Taz! Wouldn't call it a cat 5 yet but, not long. Corrected surface winds are around 145 to 150mph. Eye looks to be getting more symmetrical.
Erin says she won't let Dean steal all of the headlines...well you go girl...


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
805 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007


.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING INTO LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. WINDS TO 40 MPH ALSO WILL CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY.

AN EXTRAORDINARY WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAVE
INTENSIFIED... RESULTING IN WHAT AMOUNTS TO AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM
. AT 8 AM... THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF EDMOND BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AT 10 MPH. BANDS OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAIN WERE ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS WAS EAST AT AROUND 10
MPH.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE STORM
CENTER... ESPECIALLY WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER NEAR EDMOND.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY... AND GUSTS TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL QUICKLY
INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS AND LEAD TO IMPASSABLE ROADS AND LOCALLY
VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING CONDITIONS.

ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... RAINFALL WILL END
GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL END IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
LATE MORNING. FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING DUE TO WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGING FROM 4 TO 8
INCHES... AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
1552. CJ5
It is getting more apparent that Dean is going to continue W. FL/AL/MS can just about relax. I think the chances for LA are very slim. TX has to keep watching. I see nothing that will bring him N. This is good news for the US, not so much for MX. Good luck to everyone in Jamaica.
Check out MIMIC theres a double eye wall...
dean still has a double eye wall. it may be undergoing a new ERC
Pressure is up a tad to 923!
all i know is when dean is finished with these ERC dean will bomb out
236, I agree I don't think Dean every completed a true EWRC. I would have expected to see an eye closer to the 50 mile wide size as opposed to 15-25 mile wide.

Please w4me, it is bad enough that we all look at the cracked up CMC, do we really need longer range with it ~)

Nice shot of the eyewall replacement:

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
hmm dean is doing eyewall replacment. And it seems kinda hard for dean to follow its track given its current positon and headin. I think dean will landfall on the border between texas and mexico in the end. And it will not weaken as much as forecast when it crosses the yucatan. hmm but it also doesnt look like its gonna spare the island.
That's good news for Jamaica, intensity should bounce around like this until it is able to collapse the inner eye wall.
1563. guygee
Posted By: BahaHurican at 1:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
"I have said it here numerous times since I started posting on this blog, but I'll say it again.

Many of the islands have fewer hurricane related deaths, not because there are fewer people or they are "lucky", but because wherever possible island residents build their homes differently. The reason? WE CAN'T EVACUATE. We have nowhere to go when a storm arrives. So, we have (in the Bahamas at least) generally followed some building practices to give us a better chance to survive.

1. Don't build right on the shore. That's why shorelines are so readily available on these isands. The local people tend to build 300 - 400 feet away from the shoreline, if that close.
2. Build on a ridge. Out here there isn't anything over 210 feet, but lots of little "sand dune" type hills relatively near the shore. You build not that, not the flat land.
3. Build with stone / concrete as far as possible. In the old days more people build with wood because it was all they could afford. These days, when life is a little more prosperous here, very few people choose wood over concrete. Also, there are some stronger building codes in place here than used to be seen in FL (I think our codes are still better than FL's updated codes). This includes steel reinforcement of walls and more thorough tie-downs of roofs. Construction costs here still are generally lower than in the US, at least partially because the government has written off taxes on building supplies to many of the Family Islands.
"
[...]
BahaHurican - Thank you for posting this information. In reality many of us here in the USA have no where to go either, due to large coastal populations and a lack of sufficient infrastructure for mass evacuations. Attempted Floyd and Rita evacuations showed the problem. I think it is great that your government helps to subsidize steel-reinforced concrete residential buildings for your families. Too bad the great superpower U.S. government can't do that. I guess that is too "socialist" for us, or something, besides, we obviously have other "superpower-type" projects to spend our borrowed-from-China money on.
Shesh...are those the leftovers of Erin in Oklahoma? That thing will not go away! :P
Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Morning TCW ☺

That is down right amazing Randy!


Yes it is SJ...so the strange anomalies with respect to these tropical systems continues...and yes, stay tuned, there will be more to come...
Someone also drew our attention earlier (sorry, forget who it was) to the slightly cooler waters Dean is crossing right now, which might be making it slightly more difficult for it to reintensify rapidly. Once past Jamaica, however, I'm not holding out hopes. The water there is freaky hot.
The double eye wall is a good thing because it keeps Dean in check but, bad thing is that it increases the diameter of the 145mph winds.
Good points guygee, I have always been frustrated with the expense and poor quality of home builds here in the US.
Let's not forget to not let down our guard. There is still room for error and we need to keep tabs on this storm. Once he gets into the Gulf it may get a bit interesting. There are no guarantees how strong or deep the high pressure will be 4 days out. Remember weather is constantly changing and even Erin is influencing our weather here. I think the NHC is doing an excellent job and has been right on track with their forecast. Lets hope Dean behaves for the U.S.
Stupid question I'm sure but...what is the "blob" in the GOM just N of the Yucatan Pen?
Thanks for the MIMIC link, SJ. Was just going to beg for that.

Geez, it's great to be back where I can blog all day on Sunday . . . . :o)
1574. IMA
Posted By: calder at 12:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

... also, does anyone else think that it's shocking that a state of emergency was declared in LA?


Shocking? No. Ridiculous? Yes!

Did anyone have a response to the question about Erin eroding the ridge that is currently forecast to keep Dean south of the Texas/Mexico border? I am off to a meeting of animal rescue workers preparing for evacuees in San Antonio but would love to get some thoughts on that before I go!
1575. i12BNEi
Randyman
Morning,Has that ever happened before?That is strange.Morning all.
Posted By: lowerbamagirl at 6:37 AM PDT on August 19, 2007.

Stupid question I'm sure but...what is the "blob" in the GOM just N of the Yucatan Pen?


ULL
1579. IMA
oops -- it's the ULL that is what keeps it further south, right? The ridge is just affecting the ULL and the question posted was if Erin would affect the ridge, which could then affect the ULL and then Dean? Hell, I can usually keep that sort of thing straight but with Erin having tried to enter my house via flood waters, and taking out our bridge, I've lost it!
Thanks Taz. Anytime I see something in the GOM I get jittery!
This could be great timing.
Another stupid question (guess I'm full of them this morning!)...is that the ULL we are looking at that will keep Dean out of the northern/central GOM?
Is it possible that Dean could have pulled some cooler water up underneath it? After all, with all the force exerted above the surface there has to be some underwater current changes.

Thoughts?
take a look if this hurricnae wants to hit MX it sould be moveing W right ? but it not its moveing WNW so if it wants to make land fall in mx it needs to make a W turn to mx or it will this keep going right up to the gulf of mx i think that ULL is on him now and pulling him to the WNW then W

Link
1586. IKE
Posted By: lowerbamagirl at 8:43 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
Another stupid question (guess I'm full of them this morning!)...is that the ULL we are looking at that will keep Dean out of the northern/central GOM?


No...it' a massive ridge of high pressure that is building over the SE USA.
Thanks Baha, and good to see ya ☺

Just remember it only updates like every 12 hrs or something. I have not figured out the update schedule yet.
During my travels this summer, I saw quite a few trailer homes. In the inter-mountain area, I can see the worth of such homes; basically the location of the home in relation to creeks and flood plains is all that matters. There is little concern needed otherwise for weather-related damage.

I don't see the logic, however, in such homes being placed in areas like coastal Gulf counties, anywhere in FL, or areas prone to tornadoes. Mobile homes are too vulnerable to high winds, and flood plains in these areas are more pervasive.
okay...two different answers one from IKE one from Taz. Huh? I was hoping it wasn't that puny looking ULL that we were banking on!
thats unheard of. How did erin manage to become a tropical storm overland??????? Thats like a fictional day after tommorrow thing that shouldnt be possible. They recording gusts to 80mph in oklahoma this morning. More like an inland cane its even got an eyewall.
He's about to pop, EWRC looks about over now.
Hey StormW. Just want to say, I for the most part lurk but I read your forcasts and they have been dead on. Keep up the good work.
I must say that the GFS model and the NHC track have been right on for this entire track and I see no reason for them to be wrong now.

Looks like the U.S. escaped Dean.

1598. ewolk08
so does everyone think the central gom is clear of this?
hmm well this could change things. That ull is moving nnw now intsead of west. I wonder if this will make it go even further south or will it opene a doorway?
1600. russh46
Eastern US visible


Link
Amyst, the peak of the season is mid-Sept right? The ATl is much riper for development then it has been for the first part of the season. And really the whole ITCZ looks pretty well primed.
Genesis Probability.
1602. IKE
lowerbamagirl....

"Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
525 am EDT sun Aug 19 2007


Short term...today-Tuesday.
Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the area through the
early portion of the week. As the upper low continues to track
westward across the central Gulf of Mexico and away from the
area...the upper ridge will fill in across the region and will
remain in control throughout the short term period."


Also...from the Tallahassee,Fl. morning discussion...

"Late Wednesday night and into Thursday...the objective aids are now
all in fairly good agreement with Hurricane Dean making landfall in
Mexico after crossing over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico."
Good morning...

Just takeing a view at the global models this morning and i noticed how the CMC model has been now showing a pretty significant system affecting the eastcaost of florida in the coming days.It been showing this for a few runs now and at the moment there is not much model support to get to concerned but all in all it would not surprise me to see more models picking up on tropical development in the next few days as conditions look favorable in the region.Unfortunately this season is only starting for the eastcoast and hopefully everyone has a plan in place as we approach the meat of the season in the coming weeks.

Here a view of the lastest CMC showing a hurricane in south florida.

cmc
Posted By: ewolk08 at 6:48 AM PDT on August 19, 2007.

so does everyone think the central gom is clear of this?


No not by any means what so evere the central gom is not out of the woods in tell this storm make land fall in mx in tell then keep a eye on it
Hey Taz look at the water vapor loop for the gulf you can see that ULL already effecting the outer bands of Dean by shearing them north
1606. Xion
Th EWRC finished yet?

Because ADT values are increasing and no Weakening Flag is set.
1607. IKE
They adjusted the floater west on hurricane Dean...problem is, the have the longitude and latitude set incorrectly.
Jeez!!!

That MIMIC is freaky! (everything is freaky today)

But seriously, before Dean was finished with one ERC, it started on another! An ERC within an ERC! I've never seen that before . . .
Thanks IKE. So if I understand correctly, both answers are right. As the ULL moves accross the gulf it is followed by the upper ridge (which must be pretty powerful to keep away this monster).
Adrian, not you too! You're not following that clunky CMC are you ~)

Morning to ya ☺
hello Patchmedic
More good news for Jamaica! Huge wobble West!
Select Trop Fcst Pnts and Zoom in!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
1613. IKE
Posted By: lowerbamagirl at 8:53 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
Thanks IKE. So if I understand correctly, both answers are right. As the ULL moves accross the gulf it is followed by the upper ridge (which must be pretty powerful to keep away this monster).


Yup...on the one hand it's hot. On the other, Dean will not affect us....in lower Alabama and the panhandle of Florida.
has you can see are strom is moveing WNW if wants to make land fall in mx it need to start to make its trun to the W soon or it will this keep moveing WNW right up to the gulf of mx if will be fun to see on how far of a WNW move it makes be for it trun more to the W and in to mx
I just think that ULL will play a bigger part in the tracking of Dean If it ULL keeps moveing west into the BOC Dean could ride the east side of it into the central gulf
1617. guygee
Wobblecasting mode ON. Every little westward wobble counts on the plus side for Jamaica now.
Morning23,

I've been thinking about the fact that CMC (on crack or not :o) has been consistently forcasting formation LOCATION fairly accurately this season. This does not please me, since this latest system seems due to spin up just east of the Bahamas. :o(

Hopefully if it does pan out, it will do so as a weak tropical storm and not that monster CMC has been showing . . .
1619. IKE
Posted By: pmchugh7 at 8:54 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
More good news for Jamaica! Huge wobble West!
Select Trop Fcst Pnts and Zoom in!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html


They may...may have dodged a bullet.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 9:53 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.

Adrian, not you too! You're not following that clunky CMC are you ~)

Morning to ya ☺

SJ i have not posted on the blog for a while as there are to many kids lately posted things that really have nothing to do with the tropics but as i stated there is not much models support but as we are approaching the meat of the season i always take a look at the globals models every morning.Nothing to be to concerned about at the present time.
1621. Xion
Adrian, not you too! You're not following that clunky CMC are you ~)

Morning to ya ☺


You and the special ASCII symbols.

So SJ, does it look like Dean will intensify before reaching Jamaica or will he hit during an EWRC?
Posted By: Xion at 1:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Adrian, not you too! You're not following that clunky CMC are you ~)

Morning to ya ☺

You and the special ASCII symbols.

So SJ, does it look like Dean will intensify before reaching Jamaica or will he hit during an EWRC


Its in an EWRC now. lol
Posted By: Patchmedic at 6:56 AM PDT on August 19, 2007.

I just think that ULL will play a bigger part in the tracking of Dean If it ULL keeps moveing west into the BOC Dean could ride the east side of it into the central gulf


thats what i am starting to think tooo
Taz, I am usually in agreement with you but not today. Looking at the ULL and the high building in over FL I see no way for Dean to go north.
1626. IKE
Posted By: Patchmedic at 8:56 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
I just think that ULL will play a bigger part in the tracking of Dean If it ULL keeps moveing west into the BOC Dean could ride the east side of it into the central gulf


It will not happen. There's a strong high building in behind the ULL.
1627. guygee
I constructed a model for the tetrahedron of trolls, but I decided to ignore the results.
1629. Xion
Its in an EWRC now. lol

I mean is it almost finished or will hit while it is still in it? >___<
well i got my bets on that wave at 45W/12N, a couple models are hinting at development there.
it appears Xion that dean finished one cycle and it going thru another one yet again perhaps
Actually the worst of Dean is looking like it might stay south of the island.I have some friends that are at cancun and in jamaica waiting for the arrival of dean.Great footage to come in a few days.The worst of dean will likely be felt in cancun as dean has a chance to intensify to a CAT5 just before landfall in the area.
That ULL and high can create the path up ULL has counter clock wise winds and the High has clock wise creating a path
Everything is freaky today??? lol if thats ever an understatement. We have a TROPICAL STORM OVER LAND!!! Erin decided she would become a ts while visiting the weather service in oklahoma. They recording 65kt winds and gusts to 80 earlier this morning. and erin has an eye?????? You tell me i think this is science fiction come true.
Posted By: guygee at 2:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

I constructed a model for


;-]
Hurricane23, the last model I would look at is the Canadian. It has a poorer record than the '93 Mets.
I love them ASCII symbols Xion

⌂ ◙ ☼ ☻ ♫

Not sure, I am surprised that he has not completed or is under going another. Really I am most surprised at the lack of very deep convection over the past 24hrs. Basically I don't know what to make of Dean!
"It has happened time and time again," Reverend Stewart says. "I know people have been praying and I don't see any other reason why it (the hurricane) would make such a drastic turn.... God hears prayer."


Posted By: pmchugh7 at 8:54 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
More good news for Jamaica! Huge wobble West!
Select Trop Fcst Pnts and Zoom in!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Posted By: IKE at 1:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
They may...may have dodged a bullet.


I think not, the prayers are working.
Posted By: chrisucf at 10:02 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.

Hurricane23, the last model I would look at is the Canadian. It has a poorer record than the '93 Mets.

No kidding!

Other models are hinting at development like the GFS and the UKMET.
dean=wobbly bobbly wobblei stormi not no where he going to go. lol he doesn't even have a travel agent? How about priceline negitoer dean theyll get you to mexico safe and sound.
well the cycle may be over soon
shortwave loop indicates some short-term weakening of Dean...probably will tighten up again in short order though. Also seems to be hugging the 17W line for the last couple of hours.

Link
Here is a piece of the NWS discussion out of puerto rico from last night...

THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LOW AS DESCRIBED
IN THE LATTER PARAGRAPH OF THE SYNOPSIS WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FIRST SLOWER AND THEN FASTER...FIRST NORTH
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINTY...BUT THIS COULD BE OUR NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THERE
COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP..


Something to keep and eye on.....


Other models are hinting at development like the GFS and the UKMET.

I just don't get where you get this. I just ran them both on psu and fsu as well as NCEP and do not see anything.

Do you have a link ???

(Not the we could not use the rain from something, just not the wind. ;-) )
1648. CJ5
Posted By: Patchmedic at 2:02 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
That ULL and high can create the path up ULL has counter clock wise winds and the High has clock wise creating a path


In theroy, that is correct. The problem is the ULL is moving west and has moved west on cue through the last four days. Dean will not catch it and the High will continue to move west and keep Dean on the predicted path.
1649. Melagoo
The Jamaician Deflector Shield seems to be working for them Dean is traveling along the 17th parallel

Dean on 17th
1650. Xion
Actually the worst of Dean is looking like it might stay south of the island.I have some friends that are at cancun and in jamaica waiting for the arrival of dean.Great footage to come in a few days.The worst of dean will likely be felt in cancun as dean has a chance to intensify to a CAT5 just before landfall in the area.

Don't get your hopes up to much.

If he stays too little south then Jamaica gets the NE quadrant of the CDO.

In other words, the worst winds and damage from the "dirty" side of the storm.

And 145-150 mph winds combined with its forward motion combined with gusts = catastrophic damage.
1652. ewolk08
so taz i live in miss. what would u say bout the chances there
EWRC is producing a huge Eye Wall!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html
Posted By: Patchmedic at 6:56 AM PDT on August 19, 2007.

I just think that ULL will play a bigger part in the tracking of Dean If it ULL keeps moveing west into the BOC Dean could ride the east side of it into the central gulf


thats what i am starting to think tooo


I totally agree
1655. dklsf
"...Here a view of the lastest CMC showing a hurricane in south florida..."

The CMC put Dean in that exact spot last week, right into Miami.

Hey, isn't that the Canadian model? We get lots of Canadians here escaping the snow each winter, maybe their model likes it here, too!

I'm guessing that by next season this model, like some of the others, will get some tweaking.
Posted By: ewolk08 at 7:10 AM PDT on August 19, 2007.

so taz i live in miss. what would u say bout the chances there


i would say low for right no one is out of the woods in tell it makes land fall in mx in tell then keepp your eye on it
Ucf, did you run the 850mb vorticity?

Quick Links

Select the first link in the model section. This is the FSU Experimental model page. For all models except for the GFDL and HWRF, I set the field to 850mb vorticity to view potential genesis or track and size of tropical systems. Select animate then scroll right and page through the model run. The surface maps are also good to look at as the 850mb map will sometimes show features which are not at the surface. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF run four times a day; 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z. The 00z runs usually come out around 2am Est, the 06z around 8am Est, the 12z around 2pm Est, and the 18z around 8pm Est. The CMC, Nogaps and mm5fsu only run at 00z and 12z. The FSU model site can depict the strength of a system which is something you dont get with the line models. There is a great link that shows the mb to ft comparison in the learning section. Also the GFDL and HWRF only work with the field set to Surface Pressure and they only run for active storms. They are also the only models intended to accurately forecast strength. Notice the note at the bottom of the GFDL models about how the model represents 35 meter winds not 10 meter winds. So a roughly 20% reduction in wind speed should be used to get actual storm wind speed. The NWS NCEP model page contains the long range GFS and the NAM as well as several other models. The South Florida Water Management page has a nice spaghetti plot showing most all of the models together. The Weather Underground Tropical section also has some nice spaghetti plots of several of the major models. The GFDL track can usually be found here before it can be seen on the other sites.

Also the Southern Region Headquarters is a good way to find most of the NWS offices. Under Weather Links. Then click on San Juan and find the discussion on the left.
Hurricane23, would you please post the link to your webbie again?

I keep going on there with every intention to save it to favorites, then get distracted by all the pretty models and wonderful information and completelty forget!

I promise, I'll save it this time!

Thank you!
1659. Xion
so taz i live in miss. what would u say bout the chances there


Low.

But keep your eyes open and watch the storm anyway.
ya guys that new low should become our next depression at some pooint in the next 7 days. Wont be surprising at all. However thsi one will have a better chance at a gulf coast impact as dean and a trough will weaken the bm high for it.
1661. IKE
Posted By: ewolk08 at 9:10 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
so taz i live in miss. what would u say bout the chances there



99.99999% chance of receiving zero from Dean.

The .00001 percent chance that you will is based on Stormkat's synopsis.
Hopefully Jamaica will be OK.......the outflow seems to indicate a westward track for now.
1664. IKE
Speaking of SK...where R U and where is your updated forecast?????
East Coast Florida Hurricane is only a twinkle on a computer model, and already there are graphics, croc tears, and pious warnings, all this while a real threat hangs over the heads of many.
Posted By: JPV at 10:05 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.
Posted By: CJ5

uh....ok...lol

Well, like most people, you don't seem to understand that money is created via credit/debt.

Read up on Fractional Reserve Banking sometime, and then get back to me later.


stick to the weather.
High pressure is building to the north of dean which will drive on a WNW-W direction.A U.S. landfall continues to look low at the present time.
nola, as Xion pointed out even a due west motion now puts Jamaica in the N quad which is the worst.
cable service has been shut down so I just plugged out and put on an antenna to watch local tv...............lol.............no weather reporting, it's Sunday morning, televangelists on all stations! Only in Jamaica
1671. IKE
Posted By: Amystery at 9:15 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
My Predictions Final Landfall

Texas 5%
Mexico 95%


And that's about right.

It's been that way for at least 2 days...other than the GFDL showing a Louisiana landfall for a couple of runs on Friday and now there aiming Dean into NE Mexico.
Posted By: sunnyandshear at 10:15 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.

East Coast Florida Hurricane is only a twinkle on a computer model, and already there are graphics, croc tears, and pious warnings, all this while a real threat hangs over the heads of many.

We'll lets hope its a twinkle but this is already being monitered for development.

NWS-Puerto Rico

THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LOW AS DESCRIBED
IN THE LATTER PARAGRAPH OF THE SYNOPSIS WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FIRST SLOWER AND THEN FASTER...FIRST NORTH
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINTY...BUT THIS COULD BE OUR NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THERE
COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP..


1673. pt100
CMC keeps on predicting a system entering Florida in 6 days CMC
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
nola, as Xion pointed out even a due west motion now puts Jamaica in the N quad which is the worst.


Was the same with Ivan
Good Morning all! Dean is a Mexico storm after all and in my opinion the NHC has been pretty much right on track with Dean's predicted forecast path. With the position and movement of the ULL I can say now being 100% sure that east of Texas you are safe from this one and the % is rapidly climbing that Texas(even southern Texas)is becoming safe from Dean also.
Dean might not as bad as most of us all expected. He might go south of Jamaica enough that all they feel the outer fringes of Dean. South of Caymans thankfully and finally make landfall in the Southern Yucatan (unpopulated). Would not that something?
Point taken sunny.

Dean should be of the utmost concern right now.

The area of the Yucatan that got hammered by Wilma looks like it will again be right in the path of Dean. And this time Dean will approach dead on with some speed behind him Wilma approached slowly allowing some weakening prior to land fall. Dean will also be away from the mountains on it's edges now and will traverse some very warm water. The Caymans, but even more so the Cozumel S area are in for some rough days ahead.
anyone have a link to a radar out of Jamaica? Can't seem to find one
the outer wall appears to be well established. the ERC could be over soon
Posted By: MissBennet at 10:12 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.

Hurricane23, would you please post the link to your webbie again?

I keep going on there with every intention to save it to favorites, then get distracted by all the pretty models and wonderful information and completelty forget!

I promise, I'll save it this time!

Thank you!

www.Adrian's Weather.com
I think cmc this time of the yr (prime time) can be exceptional.
SJ, have you looked at that new wave coming off Africa? Is there a new invest?
Posted By: SWFLdrob at 10:22 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.
anyone have a link to a radar out of Jamaica? Can't seem to find one


met service out of Jamaica.

Link

FYI, the date is incorrect on the radar image, so I don't know if this is actually working.
Hurricane23 I agree with you. The vast majority of the models from last night support possible development in the SW Atlantic this week. There is increasing activity on the northern end of the large wave in the central Atlantic this morning.
Wishcasting the best for Jamaica possible south wobble.....what is the status of the tornadocane?
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Thank you so very much!
Has the NHC ever been wrong? What I mean is I remember Rita making a beeline for Brownsville 4 days out and it wound up on the TX/LA border anything can happen.
Nola....how do you judge the track of a storm by outflow? Is that possible? I thought outflow was looked at to simply see what the environment is like in terms of wind shear
As stated by the NWS in puerto rico high pressure is going to be building and conditions are going to be perfect for something to pop....The GFS and the CMC may be picking up on this.
Here is the e-addy of our national weather service doppler radar page:

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp
Comtrader said the storms tend to go in the direction of the outflow.....
Morning Bug :~)

Have not payed much attention to the rest of the tropics right now. Been mostly watching Dean. As Adrian has pointed out there is a slight area of interest that may come in to play next week.

And then the African coast is always a suspect area any time a wave rolls off.

Dean should be through the Caribbean in a few days and unless an invest is declared I am sort of sticking to Dean for now.

That said, the RAMMB Genesis maps are showing the whole ITCZ being primed for something in the coming days.
1695. bahama
We have no radar in the bahamas so I use this one in cuba. It will reach out to jamaica and caymans.Link
I wish the CMC would quit picking on FL! That is a climatological formation area and track for August. Have to see what pans out, other models and what not. CMC, sheesh, that's a monster.
H Dean

1698. IKE
Grand Cayman is at 19.2N, 81.4W...their not out of the woods by a long shot, but with this westerly track, the outlook is brighter.
Morning Adrian!
Yes, NHC has been wrong but not too often outside the forecast cone for 2-3 days, the cone is the fallback position. :) If anything I think this storm takes a left into Belize.
Steve Lyons just said if Dean does not wobble north Jamaica might escape the bad hurricane winds!
1703. Xion
Horrible news....I think.

I am listening to Jamaican radio and some people are calling in rather clueless as to what will happen.

"Some" rain and "some" heavy wind. It's like people think they will be getting 70 mph gusts.

If people don't start taking this seriously and bunker down in the strongest buildings they can find, then they will be in some serious trouble.

Dean is moving at 18 mph, so 145 + 18 = sustained winds of 163 at surface NE quadrant right? Plus gusts.
I have a theory as to the weakening of the storm before hitting Jamaca phenomonon. It is that the storm blows the warrm water out from under it and sucks up cooler water from the depths.

Does anyone have access to underwater thermographic data or the hydrological cycles that exist under cyclones and/or hurricanes?

Hungry for information, thanks...
Texas 5%
Mexico 95%



What! No odds on Belize or Honduras?
1706. CJ5
Posted By: IKE at 2:17 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
Posted By: Amystery at 9:15 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
My Predictions Final Landfall

Texas 5%
Mexico 95%
And that's about right.

It's been that way for at least 2 days...other than the GFDL showing a Louisiana landfall for a couple of runs on Friday and now there aiming Dean into NE Mexico.


Again, I concur with you...scary. We both have held this for more than 2 days. Other than, the GFDL and a brief model shift on Wed. it has been the forecast path for 5-6 days.
Yeah, know what you mean, SJ. Been concentrating on Dean, myself. But I always have a habit of looking over my shoulder, to see if anything is sneaking up on me, whilst my attention is focused elsewhere. Put it down to nerves, I guess! LOL
I'm wishcasting with Dean...












to not hit Jamaica.
Xion, I am not sure you can throw forward speed on top of wind speed. I have heard arguments both ways.
Xion thats only on the eyewall
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 10:30 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.

Morning Adrian!

Whats up cane....

Just here reading the NWS discussion from puerto rico and to be honest kinda sparked some interest in me and for sure i will be keeping an eye on this area in the coming week.

Conditions will be becoming very favorable.I posted the discussion a little up in the blog.
Hi Nickmini...
Listening to Internet Radio from Jamaica here.
http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/
I hope you stay dry and safe!
Nothing dramatic yet here in Kingston Jamaica where I live. We are watching and praying.

The Electriciy Supply will will be shut down shortly and my GPRS is not functioning so maybe I will post next after Dean has passed.
the ERC is almost over. the inner eye wall is collapsing
1717. gthsii
Steve Lyons just showed the anticipated rainfall map for Jamaica and I swear it looked like a snowfall map---areas at 12+, 6-12 inches and 3-6 inches...
1718. IKE
Posted By: CJ5 at 9:34 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 2:17 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
Posted By: Amystery at 9:15 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
My Predictions Final Landfall

Texas 5%
Mexico 95%
And that's about right.

It's been that way for at least 2 days...other than the GFDL showing a Louisiana landfall for a couple of runs on Friday and now there aiming Dean into NE Mexico.

Again, I concur with you...scary. We both have held this for more than 2 days. Other than, the GFDL and a brief model shift on Wed. it has been the forecast path for 5-6 days.


Yup. LOL.
I can not blame you for that bug, and basically if a invest does pop up, we will be some of the first to know. I promise, one of the good folks here will pop in and alert us :~)
Theres not to many strong buildings in Jamaica unless you are one of the rich ones and they've all left! The resorts will be flooded so they cant go there neither. Just go up the mountains and hide out.
Anyone have an expert opinion on the ULL and its relations to Dean. Seems to be miving just right to keep Dean West???
I have a theory as to the weakening of the storm before hitting Jamaca phenomonon. It is that the storm blows the warrm water out from under it and sucks up cooler water from the depths.

Does anyone have access to underwater thermographic data or the hydrological cycles that exist under cyclones and/or hurricanes?

Hungry for information, thanks...


All hurricanes cause enough turbulence to bring up cooler water. This can be seen in SST images, but only if the clouds clear quickly enough behing a TC and a satellite pass is timed perfectly (The satellites with enough resolution to see this are not geostationary)

This phenomenon has weaked storms in the past, but only happens if they go very slow and/or wobble back to a point they recently passed.
Lots of luck Caribean storm
Amyst, without doing much looking, but basing this on the forecasting of Dean, there will be a high pressure wedged between Dean and the GOM. Therefore, what will prevent Dean from going N will also prevent Erin from going S? I think this is how it should play out and why Erin is moving E right now. Any thoughts?
1731. CJ5
Posted By: TexasRiverRat at 2:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
Anyone have an expert opinion on the ULL and its relations to Dean. Seems to be miving just right to keep Dean West???


I am no expert but that is exactly what is happening. It is moving west ahead of Dean and not giving him any opportunty to move N.
Posted By: TexasRiverRat at 2:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Theres not to many strong buildings in Jamaica unless you are one of the rich ones and they've all left! The resorts will be flooded so they cant go there neither. Just go up the mountains and hide out.


This is not true TexasRiverRat. Maybe you should take a visit to Jamaica soon.
thanks chicklit

Caribbean Storm where are you. I am in the St Andrew hills and wind woke me at 5am. The rain has been driving here ever since. It was the same with Ivan, action started here at 4am, and not down in Kingston until 4pm! lol. The elevation increases wind speed, and we have an island with plenty elevated territory.
Horrible news....I think.

I am listening to Jamaican radio and some people are calling in rather clueless as to what will happen.


I'm sorry to say this sounds like some folks here in the US during Katrina. Very sad!

What's up with the satellite, they have not updated them for almost an hour, so can't tell if it's wobbled much either way?
1737. Xion
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.4mb/122.2kt


ADT seems to think it is Weakening yet again.

Third EWRC!?!? :p/jk
That is likely true for the ULL Amyst, but it is really no longer a factor in any steering of Dean. It got out front and allowed the high to build. The high is the driver now. The ULL could have driven had it slowed down or the high not been strong enough.
Posted By: TexasRiverRat at 2:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
Theres not to many strong buildings in Jamaica unless you are one of the rich ones and they've all left! The resorts will be flooded so they cant go there neither. Just go up the mountains and hide out.


Truly Ignorant. You need to get out of Texas. Our buildings, have to meet codes for Hurricanes cat 5 AND earthquakes richter 8. As usual we focus on the sensational or the tragedy and ignore the successes. Most buildings in Jamaica will stand up to most storms intact.
Dean will not move north into the gulf....High pressure is building to its north and right now it only has one way to go which W-WNW to the south of jamaica lets hope and then into cancun as a very strong CAT4 or possibly a CAT5.A U.S. landfall does not look likely at the moment.
New area to watch, next week.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
1742. gthsii
RE: Erin. I spoke with my brother today who lives in OK City. The "eye" passed right over him. He's been up since 1AM this morning monitoring the system. They got over 6 inches of rain in about three hours. Major flooding is happening. Unprecedented to say the least.
a tropical wave out near 45 West Longitude. Infared satellite imagery this morning doesn't show a whole lot of deep thunderstorm activity, but it has a fairly good circulation. The reason I am mentioning it is because the GFS model takes a good part of the energy from this wave north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday and then tracks it into the Bahamas by about Friday and this model actually develops a low pressure system in the Bahamas as well by Friday. The Canadian model develops a powerful hurricane out of this system in the Bahamas by Thursday and tracks it over eastern Florida on Friday. Since the Canadian model forms every system into a hurricane, this model will be discounted.
1744. gthsii
caneW: your link does not work...only goes to photobuckets home page
Posted By: TexasRiverRat at 10:37 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.
Theres not to many strong buildings in Jamaica unless you are one of the rich ones and they've all left! The resorts will be flooded so they cant go there neither. Just go up the mountains and hide out.


must not have been to Jamaica.
Our buildings, have to meet codes for Hurricanes cat 5

Thats good to know Nick. Hope you don't have to test them to Cat 5.
Posted By: nickmini at 2:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

thanks chicklit

Caribbean Storm where are you. I am in the St Andrew hills and wind woke me at 5am. The rain has been driving here ever since. It was the same with Ivan, action started here at 4am, and not down in Kingston until 4pm! lol. The elevation increases wind speed, and we have an island with plenty elevated territory.



Hi Nick, I am in Acadia Area near to Grants Pen/Barbican. We are getting squally showers not much wind as yet.

My family and friends throughout St. Andrew and Kingston all agree that Ivan was worse at this stage but it is still early yet. We however believe our prayers are being answered.
Early NHC update!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html
Another Eyewall Replacement Cycle!

000
URNT12 KNHC 191443
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/13:58:00Z
B. 16 deg 49 min N
074 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2448 m
D. 112 kt
E. 220 deg 020 nm
F. 324 deg 111 kt
G. 221 deg 023 nm
H. EXTRAP 926 mb
I. NA C/ 3040 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16-32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 08
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SE QUAD 12:15:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 134KT AT 14:06:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB



1750. IKE
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 75.1 west or about 130 miles...
210 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 215 miles...
345 km...west-southwest of Port au Prince Haiti.
Thank Goodness for the Jamaican people that it looks a present that the core of the storm will pass South of them........Looks like tropical storm winds for them as the storm continues to make a beeline for the Yucatan pennisulla...Kudos to NHC on their forecasts for the last several days.....
000
WTNT34 KNHC 191443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING OVER JAMAICA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR
DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE ISLAND OF
JAMAICA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...75.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME



1753. Xion
Truly Ignorant. You need to get out of Texas. Our buildings, have to meet codes for Hurricanes cat 5 AND earthquakes richter 8.

Good luck anyway. Please, please try to find a safe place and an extremely solid structure.

Very little is guaranteed to withstand high Cat 4 and Cat 5 winds. Don't let that be your crutch. If you have to seek shelter, please seek it.

I mean look at the Superdome in NOLA. It was designed to withstand much more than Cat 5 winds as well and it had its roof peeled off by Cat 1 winds.

I am not trying to scare you, I just want you to be as safe as possible.

And Dean is now moving west, so barring a wobble Jamaica just might be very lucky.

Good luck.
Steve Lyons just gave the 11:00 a.m. update....926 millibars, moving w at 18. still 145 winds
Well the models are starting to split to the east showing possibles in Texas and Louisiana. I am betting they will move more east as the next few days evolve.
#1fan...Not sure which sat you are using, but the GHCC is 20 minutes old...

Quick Links

Select the first link in the imagery section. This is the Global Hydrology and Climate Data Center. There are several rows of maps. The first column is visible imagery. The second infrared and the third is water vapor. The first row is the W Atl view and the frames update most often and also has the highest max zoom. The next active row down does not have the same zoom level and the images update every 30 minutes. The Carib row uses a different color scale on the IR imagery and shows more whites and reds with weaker convection. Select the map you wish t o view. Below the image that comes up are options that will allow to change size, number of frames, zoom level, quality, etc. There is also a box that on SOME maps will allow you to turn on lat/lon lines. Set these parameters the way you choose and then click the area on the map you wish to view. Make sure you select the animate feature if you wish to see a loop. Allow loop to load and enjoy. This site releases images prior to any other site as far as I know. The NHC-SSD imagery site is great for the floaters and large views of the Atlantic. It also allows you to place overlays on the map like wind speed, tropical forecast points, fronts, pressures, etc.
1757. JPV
Is that normal for a Hurricane to go through 2-3 eyewall cycles in such a short period of time?

And what would it do to the storm?
The problem with Jamaica is nothing to do with the housing quality (many are superbly built) it is simply a question of terrain.

Here in Cayman we have no rivers or hills/mountains of any kind. In Jamaica they have terrain which lends itself to flash flooding. It does not matter how well the houses are built if you get storm surge or flash flooding - those are what kill people in Jamaica.
Wxman look where that Can model develops that storm I remember some action there this decade.
dean is now moving west. the ERC should be over soon. the inner eye wall is collapsing
Stormjunkie, thank you for comment on ull, etc. to amyst.
I started asking about 2.5 hours ago and got nothing.

1762. guygee
Not a pretty picture for Texas:

08/19 06Z GFS Ensemble 1" Precipitation Contours
(Java animation out to 180 hours).

The ensemble mean at 78 hours even shows Dean's eye!
Thanks StormJunkie.
1764. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 9:53 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.
dean is now moving west. the ERC should be over soon. the inner eye wall is collapsing


It's about over...
has anyone seen a US tv station with coverage from Jamaica? I can find lots of Cancun - Jamaica seems to have disappeared.
TCW, I have not looked at the next potential area much, but yesterday I thought the CMC was hinting at the next area being that area to the SW of your circle, the one near 10 N 55W? I know that is part of the ITCZ, but I thought that is what the CMC was area. Again, I have not kept myself well briefed on this so just asking questions here.
Sorry I did not see your questions anne, and thanks ☺
1768. Xion
has anyone seen a US tv station with coverage from Jamaica? I can find lots of Cancun - Jamaica seems to have disappeared.

Both CNN and TWC have correspondents in Jamaica. TWC's correspondent will be coming on soon.

Not very lucky are they?
Once Dean get past Jamaica boom it has a cat 5 written all over it. Thanks for your anaylsis welsecayman so we should expect to see some mudslides and severe flooding in Jamaica?
About more formation from the waves, rammb/CIRA/CSU 24 hour formation probability has plummeted in the last 18 hours. Maybe the spike they had (second image) is the first time they missed this season.

tc prob

time series prob
I'm listening to Jamacian Radio and the callers are so polite! They're too nice a people for anything bad to happen. I think they will bounce back from whatever they encounter.
I'm a former lurker...newbie to the blog.

While the CMC model seems to have less credibility than others, has there been any comment on the animated run showing a low forming over the Bahamas and rotating into Florida from 96h to 144h? This an anomoly or potential?

CMC animation run

OOPS...here is the link.
Masquer08er

Naturally we don't want to test cat 5. I woud never say we would not have damage. However there will not be a repeat of Gilbert (eg. entire communities built with no roof hurricane straps!). If you take in a building plan for a home that will not be concrete block with reinforced steel you have to prove that your building system can resist winds of 150mph before you are allowed to build it. We are much better prepared as a nation than 20 years ago. WHAT IS THAT RAIN?! Heaviest band so far.
1775. srada
has anyone seen a US tv station with coverage from Jamaica? I can find lots of Cancun - Jamaica seems to have disappeared

MSNBC has a reporter in kingston too.

Here is something to put in your weather tool belt if you dont have it already.

Latitude/Longitude Distance Calculation

Link
1777. paulo64
Hi, first post here, but I have been watching for a long time. Question...what about the circulation that is occurring in the gulf? Not much storm activity yet, but definitely a circulation. Any chance of development?
Please post links about models moving east.
I saw that the TWC corespondent is at Tryall Golf and Country Club, one of the top ten golf courses in the world. It's on the North Course and out of the line of fire. I think he's here for a round or two.
1780. IMA
Jamaica bloggers, be safe and God bless!!!Y'all are in my thoughts today. Please let us know how you are as soon as you're able after the storm.

Posted By: eaglesrock at 2:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

CMC = Can't Model Crap


LMAO -- good one! -- off to my animal rescue evacuation meeting, although it's so hard to rip myself up and away from the blog ;)
Wow! Look at that Eye Wall!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html
Posted By: firecane at 3:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Please post links about models moving east.


The GFS wants socialized medicine, even if it means waiting 4 months for a tetanus shot, so its miving to London. (I personally think it has a crush on UKMET, but is not talking about it.)
1783. Xion
MSNBC has a reporter in kingston too.


Sorry, I don't watch MSNBC. For one I only have one "Last" button on my remote (for Fox News and CNN) and besides I don't know its channel number. :p

TWC I watch occasionally though.
1784. calder
paolo, that's the upper level low that's steering dean
paulo64, and WXmongrel, welcome aboard :~)

Paul, that is the ULL that got out in front of Dean that allowed the high to build in and keep it moving W. It is at the 500-300mb height. Tropical systems are in the lower levels. Very, very rarely a ULL can transition to tropical, but it takes many days and is a true weather oddity when it does happen.

MB to feet conversion chart.

That chart should help understand a little better.
1786. CJ5
Posted By: paulo64 at 3:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
Hi, first post here, but I have been watching for a long time. Question...what about the circulation that is occurring in the gulf? Not much storm activity yet, but definitely a circulation. Any chance of development?


That is an Upper level low and will not develop into anything. It will move west ahead of Dean and into Tx.
guygee, thanks for the link to the map. So...basically, even though dean goes into Mexico....Texas gets the rain?!?!

gosh we haven't had any flooding for what...a day now...guess it's time for more

oof
Tazmanian...thanks for the head's up about the frost. If they're having it, we in NW VT probably are too.

As for the tropics...
Is that an Invest over in the eastern Pacific?
Think Dean could catch up to it eventually?
Hey guys It would be very Good If Dean went past jamica as a cat 3 and Hit the yuctan as a weak cat 3 and came off as A Ts strengthend to a cat 1 and hit mexico ...That would be a better senerio than now
actually storm junkie, i believe that erin was a ULL that spun over fla and then the gulf for a few days before forming.
1791. Xion
true weather oddity

Speaking of weather oddities...Erin looks like a tropical storm and even has an eye!
I'm listening to Jamacian Radio and the callers are so polite! They're too nice a people for anything bad to happen. I think they will bounce back from whatever they encounter.
I'm listening too. No doom,gloom. They sound upbeat and confident that no matter what Dean may bring they'll be able to handle it.While I'm not a praying man, I do wish them all the luck in the world.
true weather oddity

Speaking of weather oddities...Erin looks like a tropical storm and even has an eye!


This is because my mom keeps her pool piss-warm, she lives SSE of Tulsa. LOL
Posted By: i12BNEi at 1:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Randyman
Morning,Has that ever happened before?That is strange.Morning all.


Not that I can recall...I just think it's really strange how the center appeared to almost move directly over downtown Oklahoma City...very, very interesting indeed...


Posted By: texascanecaster1 at 1:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

thats unheard of. How did erin manage to become a tropical storm overland??????? Thats like a fictional day after tommorrow thing that shouldnt be possible. They recording gusts to 80mph in oklahoma this morning. More like an inland cane its even got an eyewall.


Like I told StormJunkie Texascanecaster1, the strange anomalies continues with respect to these tropical systems...Now let's see if Dean has any bag of tricks to offer us...

1795. paulo64
SJ and CJ5 thanks for help with the learning curve!
1796. Xion
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.4mb/122.2kt


No change since the last one, but Weakening Flag is still ON.
Newbie question here, the blowup of clouds from the ULL in the GOM seems impressive. Could something like this develop? Learning here and thanks in advance for any responses!
I have a few questions regarding models, etc.:
1. How do you rate the NRL consensus model? Seems to have been fairly accurate in the past.
2. Where is Stephanie Abrams?
3. Will Senor Slim get out his checkbook for the recovery in Mexico?
i dont use the ADT lol. it doesnt give the actual strength, as it is just based on satillite data
Cantori just said if the storm continues on its course might just see cat 1 winds up in Cancun. Dare you go south Jim.
1801. Xion
thats unheard of. How did erin manage to become a tropical storm overland??????? Thats like a fictional day after tommorrow thing that shouldnt be possible. They recording gusts to 80mph in oklahoma this morning. More like an inland cane its even got an eyewall.

The NHC did forecast strengthening...but that was before landfall...at least it came true somewhere along the cycle. :P
Posted By: Xion at 3:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

true weather oddity

Speaking of weather oddities...Erin looks like a tropical storm and even has an eye!

ya...looks like. Pressures and winds for Oklahoma can be found here.

Link
Here comes a wobble North (one frame), hopefully it's not enough to bring Jamaica into track-play. If you doubt this look at the flattining of the SW outer band!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html
Nick, Sorry! I wasn't implying anything. I just hope you get spared the brunt of the storm. Good Luck to all in Jamaica!!!
1805. Xion
i dont use the ADT lol. it doesnt give the actual strength, as it is just based on satillite data

You're correct, but it is helpful is detecting strengthening and weakening trends.
1807. guygee
Posted By: austxanne at 3:06 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
"guygee, thanks for the link to the map. So...basically, even though dean goes into Mexico....Texas gets the rain?!?!

gosh we haven't had any flooding for what...a day now...guess it's time for more
"

austxanne - For some interpretation guidance I checked the 06Z GFS ensemble runs for Dean's track, and they are clustered mostly north of the NHC official track. You can see the operational models here, just click on frame 1 next to the GFS ensemble track guidance row for the updated GFS ensemble tracks for Dean.

Dean is a big storm and the GFS ensembles show the high eroding near the TX coast near or just after landfall, so I think you can bank on some more significant rains, sorry to say.
1808. Xion
Power will be out soon in Jamaica.

Good luck to everyone there, and don't be afraid to bring out your camera if it is safe to do so.

Wow, people from all across the Caribbean are calling into Jamaican radio to wish Jamaicans their best. So touching is the sense of community and fraternity. :)
How do I listen to jamaica radio? I can't get it to load.
thanks Masquer08er
no offense taken
actually storm junkie, i believe that erin was a ULL that spun over fla and then the gulf for a few days before forming.

No it wasn't. It was a tropical wave, 91L I think that didn't develope until it got into the GOM.
1812. o311
a system located at 45w could be something to watch said the guy at crownweather.com which has some awesome maps and info. People in florida should take warning the models predicted
1813. Spoon
tallahasseecyclone, it took me like 20 minutes to get it -- the servers are completely full
1814. Xion
Here comes a wobble North (one frame), hopefully it's not enough to bring Jamaica into track-play. If you doubt this look at the flattining of the SW outer band!

That's why I keep saying that they are not out of the woods yet.

Wobbles are extremely common in hurricanes this intense and large.

Jamaica might be spared a direct hit by another wobble, or not.
Storm Junkies little disturbance just ESE of Barbados seems to be becomimg more organized.
Posted By: Xion at 3:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

true weather oddity

Speaking of weather oddities...Erin looks like a tropical storm and even has an eye!




Link
Tropical Wave Update

A tropical wave continues to move west across the Tropical Atlantic along 10N/53W-20N/50W. The wave continues to exhibit clear inverted V curvature in the surrounding mid-low level stratocumlus field on visible images. Also the wave is cleary indentified in potential vorticity charts, precipitable water imagery by SSMI satellite sensor and quikscat. A few buoys also show the classic northeast-southeast wind shift.

Low level vorticity, precipitable water, visible winds, visible imagery loops and buoy observations all indicate very well that a low pressure area continues to be located along a tropical wave near 11N/53W. The latest GFS MSLP of the Atlantic and Quikscat also depict the low pressure center very well.

The lastest TAFB anaysis also supports this finding and has the low at 1010 mb.

Shower activity remins minimal to moderate along these two features but one the models CMC develops this wave has moves northwest in either the northern Caribbean or Southwest North Atlantic.

by W456
1818. Xion
How do I listen to jamaica radio? I can't get it to load.

It's easy you just go the site and hold down Enter as the error messages pop up.

If it doesn't connect you then, you just keep trying.

Took me like two tries, even this morning.
Excuse my basic question:
what happens to the pressure in the nw/w areas outside the tropical systems? i understand that high pressure builds to the nw? so what happens on the other side?

thanks for any info
Looks like Dean may be hitting a little more shear than the last 36 hours. Digital Dvorak reflects this well (second image). Also looks like any increased shear will be short-lived, goes back down quickly west of JAM.

shear

dd
1821. Xion
A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
is there a weather blog "wunderground". If not then Jamaican radio station just tried to give weatherunderground a plug.
1823. sgpine
I'm ignorant about this, but,

What do people think about the possibility that the tremendous rains Texas and OK have received this season are playing a major role in Erin's redevelopment?

With the ground as saturated as it is, shouldn't the environment be much more favorable for a hurricane than one would normally find over land?
at least the nhc mentioned the wave
1825. VBgirl
That happened here. Dennis came ashore in Florida (1997) and came inland up the east coast. It got over very damp, humid landmass in NC and strengthened back into a Tropical Storm right on top of us. Very strange.
Guarantee the worst of Dean will be in Cancun. Jim Cantore is there.
thanks again, guygee

whooshkie is all i can say

at least it's been a cooler summer here....
1827. Joot
The topic of this blog about God averting hurricanes irritates me. What is that supposed to imply about places that DO get struck by hurricanes? I suppose God simply ignored the prayers of the residents of New Orleans? I suppose God hated the people of Honduras when He sent Mitch to obliterate the country in 1998?
nvm image didnt show up
StormJunkie ~ Thanks for the Teaching Moment.
I bookmarked your links awhile back and appreciate them.

Anyone needing to check on someone on Cayman,
this site is getting active:
http://help.stormcarib.com/read.php?2,5600
That's cool medic :~)

Props to Jamaican radio!!!

Weatherunderground and Wunderground are one in the same. Look at the address in the browser bar.
Power should have gone out 19 mins ago, but with the more southerly track it's likely they'll keep it on. Only people like me in the hills may lose power if trees (more likely) or poles blow down (less likely as there is constant maintenance and replacement of poles).

Oh my, power just went, up here in the hills. I hope it comes back again like earlier this morning, but I think this may be the last time.
1832. o311
the info is from crownweather.com, he has a disscusion on a wave at 45w. The models; well just go a read for yourself.
Posted By: Xion at 11:18 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.
Here comes a wobble North (one frame), hopefully it's not enough to bring Jamaica into track-play. If you doubt this look at the flattining of the SW outer band!

That's why I keep saying that they are not out of the woods yet.

Wobbles are extremely common in hurricanes this intense and large.

Jamaica might be spared a direct hit by another wobble, or not.


Jamaica is definitely not out of the woods. But notice that places Dean right over the forecasted point by the NHC.
Posted By: Randyman at 1:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Erin says she won't let Dean steal all of the headlines...well you go girl...


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
805 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007


.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING INTO LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. WINDS TO 40 MPH ALSO WILL CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY.

AN EXTRAORDINARY WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAVE
INTENSIFIED... RESULTING IN WHAT AMOUNTS TO AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM. AT 8 AM... THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF EDMOND BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AT 10 MPH. BANDS OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAIN WERE ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS WAS EAST AT AROUND 10
MPH.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE STORM
CENTER... ESPECIALLY WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER NEAR EDMOND.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY... AND GUSTS TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL QUICKLY
INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS AND LEAD TO IMPASSABLE ROADS AND LOCALLY
VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING CONDITIONS.

ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... RAINFALL WILL END
GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL END IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
LATE MORNING. FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING DUE TO WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGING FROM 4 TO 8
INCHES... AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
451 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A MOST INTERESTING NIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN SEEMED TO HAVE REGAINED
STRENGTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAS PRODUCED STRONG
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. EVOLUTION OF AN EYE-STRUCTURE HAS BEEN
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS OCCURRING
NEAR IT.
I'm listening to Jamacian Radio and half of the callers (that are on hold) don't answer when called upon. Power outages have begun. God speed Jamaica!
image

Here we go. shear is only 5-10kts over dean. so favorable conditions for strengthening
Wunderful!!!!!!!
Thanks VT :~) Just paying forward what I have learned here and am still learning every day!
Posted By: medicroc at 3:21 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
is there a weather blog "wunderground". If not then Jamaican radio station just tried to give weatherunderground a plug.


Lots of Jamaicans use the weather underground but we call it wunderground from the url.
Looking through the archives, I found a storm back in the late l950's that slowed to a depression overland then increased back to a tropical storm much as Erin has done. I noticed also that Camille, which hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast as a strong 5 in l969, traversed much of the United States, then exited on the upper east coast and became a weak hurricane again. Interesting!
Posted By: pmchugh7 at 3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
I'm listening to Jamacian Radio and half of the callers (that are on hold) don't answer whan called upon. Power outages have begun.


we don't need electricity for phones to work. they probably lack patience. thanks for the God Speed.
OK, maybe not shear. But what is droppong T#s and Dvorak intensities. The max in T#s was about 36 hours ago when Dean pulled his TS to cat3 fast intensification. Since then the Dvorak intensity has been waning, too. What is causing that? He cannot be doing 6 or 8 ERCs back-to-back, or the eye would be 100 miles across by now.
has anyone noticed the last frame of dean the eye got bigger
Posted By: hurrybird at 2:51 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Well the models are starting to split to the east showing possibles in Texas and Louisiana. I am betting they will move more east as the next few days evolve.


How do you figure? I see zero E movement.
dvorak hasnt been right with dean from the beginning. it showed dean weakening during its intensification phase
yea i saw that too
1847. Xion
OK, maybe not shear. But what is droppong T#s and Dvorak intensities. The max in T#s was about 36 hours ago when Dean pulled his TS to cat3 fast intensification. Since then the Dvorak intensity has been waning, too. What is causing that? He cannot be doing 6 or 8 ERCs back-to-back, or the eye would be 100 miles across by now.

To be fair to Dean his T# is 6.3 from ADT, which is only .1 below his peak intensity 36 hours ago, and his pressure is lower than it was then.

Lots of Jamaicans use the weather underground but we call it wunderground from the url.
Never been to Jamaica, but after listening to the radio station and all the wonderful people calling in, it looks like I'll have a new vacation destination(just not today ,lol)
Sorry I can't find whom to thank for posting the info about the Crown Weather Services link............thank you!

That is an excellent site! For those wanting to listen to the radio in Jamaica, there are links on that site in the tropical weather section.

steel
Good mornng all my thoughts are with the island of Jamica. I do have one quesiton. Are any other models picking up on this Link
1852. Xion
Lots of Jamaicans use the weather underground but we call it wunderground from the url.
Never been to Jamaica, but after listening to the radio station and all the wonderful people calling in, it looks like I'll have a new vacation destination(just not today ,lol)


I too have called it "wonder" ground.

Because "Weather Underground" is two syllables too many.
456, the wave you mention is no longer developed by CMC (although looks like there's minor spim to it possibly). But the wave north around 20N 50W roughly developing (it seems like there are 2 rotational spots at 20N 53W and 18N 48W but it is very hard to tell on vis right now and as repeated before, no convection so they'll likely fall apart soon and become open waves if they don't get convection).
Joot ~ I agree. It's not about how many buckets of faith you have. No need for superstitions.

IMHO prayer simply affects the energy by "opening the possible" in the freedom of creation.

It doesn't negate science. Science and energy and the universe are one.
ClearH2O just the CMC.
Hello everyone,It's still sunny here in Montego Bay Jamaica
You can get live reports from our local radio station
Which willbe broadcasting even if Dean strikes us directly.
directly.

Link
to me, there are a lot of little minor areas right now with minimal convection, although if conditions become favorable for any of these waves we could see something come out of it
To me it seems as if the CMC is great at catching storms way before they form. However, the model doesn't seem to get a good handle on were they form.
Appears the EWRC is finishing up in this loop.
Link
Now, I found you o311.......thanks for posting the info about Crown Weather! Great site!

steel
We'll have to monitor the progress of the weakness in the ridge. CMC says it will quickly close up. GFS and Nogaps keep it open and recurve the area out to sea. Just quickly looking at the North Atl water vapor, I am halfway siding with the CMC on it closing up. Have to see what happens in the next couple of days. CMC spins it up pretty quickly with land fall in 5 1/2 days around West Palm. Granted not the best model this year but, it is one of the big 4 and still needs to be looked at.
Hello
Is Dean still following the model track?
Stay safe Jamaicans!

BBL
The NWS in Norman, OK, should not use the term "inland tropical storm" for Erin, as this is just sensationalism. The wind speeds justify labeling it an inland depression. Impressive structure remaining, though. What is the forecast track of these remnants after they depart Oklahoma?
Wundermobay:Hello everyone,It's still sunny here in Montego Bay Jamaica

I am sure that guy from TWC is getting in some golf!
I was looking at the NWS Fronts information from http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

and just west of the BOC over the Mexican coast it is showing 1015mb HP. I haven't seen this HP noted before and it doesn't look like it is part of forecast models.

Just wanted to point it out for considerations.
Posted By: littlefish at 3:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

456, the wave you mention is no longer developed by CMC (although looks like there's minor spim to it possibly). But the wave north around 20N 50W roughly developing (it seems like there are 2 rotational spots at 20N 53W and 18N 48W but it is very hard to tell on vis right now and as repeated before, no convection so they'll likely fall apart soon and become open waves if they don't get convection).


What other wave?, there is only one tropical wave.





Posted By: bahama at 10:29 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.

We have no radar in the bahamas so I use this one in cuba. It will reach out to jamaica and caymans


Hi, just curious where u live? The Bahamas does have radar . . . how did u think they were landing all those jet planes at the international airports?

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/

I will give this caveat, that sometimes it works better than others.
something else i have noticed is that shear is favorable off the SE coast as well as in much of the eastern atlantic. so if there was a disuturbance in these areas something could form
Yes it is ride and will continue to do so. Good thing is that this EWRC will keep the intensity down for the time being.
Wow,

See the spot developing over the Blue mountains (Max alt 7,401ft) caused by orographic lift?
well the EWRC is about over as it appears. the inner eye wall is collapsing and the eye has gotten bigger.
Dr M has a new blog up

See y'all there
Normally, you don't want a pinhole eye because it's typically more intense. But for Jamaica, an enlarged eye could be bad news, as it's a way for the storm to reach further north with its windfield even though the eye itself may remain south of the island.
medicroc,

Jamaica is a wonderful place to go, I have gone a couple of times, it is my favorite place to go in all the Caribbean, last time I went was in the spring of 05, Jamaica and grand Cayman recovered extremely well after Ivan, compared to some of the places here in Florida
Good Morning All
1878. guygee
What is that weird AEMI model that is a north outlier showing Dean landfall just south of Brownsville?

It finally dawned on me that it is the GFS Emsemble Mean (AEMN), "interpolated". Since the GFS ensembles are neither "early" nor "late" models, but in-between, the AEMI shows up in many of the track graphics.

A useful list for many model acronyms can be found here.
Once Dean moves west of Jamaci it looks like upper level winds shift more northerly. And the steering winds over the east coast appear to be behind the curve. The ULL in the GOM may be running interference.
Here is the North Atlantic GOES loop showing winds.Link
1880. Melagoo
What made Erin head northwest could Dean do the same when he gets there
Hurricane Dean just made a jog to the North. If you doubt this you will see a flattening of the SW outer band.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html
1882. Melagoo
Could Erin end up dragging Dean upward toward the Gulf Coast
Again on CMC, I've seen this model again and again focus accurately on development locations far earlier than other models. I admit it is usually far overboard when it comes to strength of the system, but if CMC indicates a development point and then bombs out the system, there's a good chance something will form in that area.

At least that's what I've observed with systems earlier this year . . .
I live in between Corpus and Brownsville, and altho I am pretty sure there isn't too much to worry about (right now), I have gone ahead and put up some plywood over my hard to reach windows while I had some help and before the work week starts. Kinda looks silly with all my higher windows covered but oh well! LOL
Posted By: druseljic at 11:13 AM EDT on August 19, 2007.

Newbie question here, the blowup of clouds from the ULL in the GOM seems impressive. Could something like this develop? Learning here and thanks in advance for any responses!


We had a similar blowup of rain / clouds when that ULL moved through The Bahamas a few days ago. That particular circulation seems to be unstable enough to induce lots of moisture out of the atmosphere. Not all ULLs are that stormy, though there was a pretty potent one crossing TX a while back that added to flooding there.
1886. hcubed
"Posted By: eaglesrock at 9:22 AM CDT on August 19, 2007.

CMC = Can't Model Crap"


Actually, there's been one forcast model that's been worse than the CMC this year, and that's the SWS.

SWS = StormKat Weather Service
Now this is beautiful and scary at the very same time . . .


Beautiful picture BahaHurican and thanks for the answer to my earlier question.