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Can Cloud Seeding Help Ease California's Drought?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:37 PM GMT on March 28, 2014

The California rainy season is bringing one final blast of moisture to the drought-parched state over the coming week. Strong low pressure systems will bring mountain snows and valley rains to most of the northern half of the state on Saturday and again on Monday, and widespread precipitation amounts of 4+ inches are likely. A Winter Storm Watch is posted for the Sierras, where snowfall amounts of 1 - 2 feet are expected over the weekend. Monday's storm will likely dump another 1 - 2 feet, providing a critical boost to a drought-depleted snowpack that the state desperately needs to provide water during the hot, dry summer months. Rain-bearing low pressure systems typically stop bringing heavy rains to the state by mid-April, as the jet stream shifts to the north in its usual springtime migration. The 16-day GFS forecast is showing one more decent shot of moisture is possible on April 4, then a shift to a drier pattern will occur. The March 25, 2014 Drought Monitor is showing that 99.8% of California is in drought, with 95% of the state in Severe, Extreme, or Exceptional drought, a 2% rise from the previous week.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Friday, April 4, 2014. Much needed rains and snows are expected to fall in California in the coming week. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Cloud Seeding Can Help Ease California's Drought
Extra moisture can be wrung out of clouds passing over mountain areas to increase the winter snowpack using cloud seeding. Such efforts have been made since the 1960s in the Sierras by the Desert Research Institute (DRI) of Reno, Nevada. During the winter of 2013 - 2014, DRI used six ground-based cloud-seeding generators in the Tahoe-Truckee Sierras of California and Nevada, for a total of 150 hours, to burn a solution of silver iodide, sodium iodide, salt and acetone. These generators were remotely operated by telephone, radio, or wireless communication, and released microscopic silver iodide particles which created ice crystals, then snow, in winter clouds. Six ground-based generators and a cloud seeding aircraft performed an additional 59 hours of cloud seeding farther to the south, in the Walker Basin Sierras. According to a Desert Research Institute cloud seeding fact sheet, wintertime cloud seeding does not diminish snowfall in areas downwind of the seeded area. DRI sums up the benefits of cloud seeding this way: "Research results have documented precipitation rate increases of a few hundredths to about 2 millimeters per hour due to ground-based seeding during the proper weather conditions. Based on the rate increases, estimates of augmented snow water from the DRI seeding program have varied from 20,000 to 80,000 acre-feet annually over the past 15 years of operation. Seasonal percentage increase estimates have varied from 2% to 10%. The cost of augmented water, based on the annual cost of the program, has ranged from $7 to about $18 per acre-foot." The DRI cloud seeding project is state-funded. Future plans include the development of uncrewed drone aircraft for cloud seeding, which could be operational by the winter of 2014 - 2015. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projects that cloud seeding could supply the Colorado River watershed with up to 700,000 acre-feet of water per year by 2035, and 1.7 million AF by the year 2060, at a very low cost of $30 - $60 per acre-foot. By comparison, the Colorado River, which is a primary source of water to Southern California, typically supplies 15 million acre-feet of water each year to the U.S. (an acre-foot is the amount of water needed to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot.)


Figure 2. A cloud seeding generator run by the Desert Research Institute (DRI) in Reno, Nevada.

I’ll discuss several other ways California can get more water in future blogs posts in the coming weeks. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quite a heavy line through Palm Beach county this evening (I am whispering because I am sure sar2401 has seen so much worse)...It was pretty bad...
Quoting 991. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Forecast shows weakening before landfall, you think this latest intensification will make it stronger at landfall? I'm not sure what water temperatures are like down there and upper level winds.

There's still uncertainty regarding whether Hellen makes landfall on Madagascar or not. It depends on how fast the subtropical ridge to the southeast builds in. If it doesn't make landfall, I don't see any reason to think it will weaken immediately. Wind shear is low (the storm is being fueled by a beautiful poleward outflow channel) and SSTs are 29-30C. One limiting factor may be some dry air intruding from the west after 48 hours.
1003. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

TORNADO WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

TORNADO WARNING SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 525 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014

TORNADO WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 809 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 737 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 712 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 557 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
Quoting 1000. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You want to know why, that is the Dixie Alley zone, probably an even more dangerous zone than Tornado Alley. Bluestorm5 pointed this out to me.



What's disturbing is that when activity was in the Alley, it was nearly 100% in the daytime when you could see to run. Now in the Southern Belt, they happen half the time in the middle of the night, no fair chance of avoiding them.
1005. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Interesting chart.


Looking at the map for Alabama, I can certainly see where my tornado insurance money goes, and it's not down here.
Well, things got impressive with hook echo showing up on radar near Raleigh. It went west of my house by 10 miles so my area is good.

1007. Patrap
991  
WFUS56 KSTO 300101  
TORSTO  
CAC021-103-300130-  
/O.NEW.KSTO.TO.W.0011.140330T0101Z-140330T0130Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA  
601 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTH CENTRAL GLENN COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL TEHAMA COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM PDT  
 
* AT 600 PM PDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD  
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEHAMA COUNTY...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF CORNING...  
MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE CROSSING INTERSTATE 5 THROUGH 630 PM...AND  
AFFECTING AREAS OF RURAL SOUTHERN TEHAMA COUNTY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO UNDER A STURDY STRUCTURE.  
 
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A  
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE  
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3991 12205 3976 12208 3980 12233 3992 12224  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 270DEG 13KT 3985 12221  
 
 
JHM  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
1008. Patrap
 
523  
WFUS52 KRAH 300105  
TORRAH  
NCC183-300145-  
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0009.140330T0105Z-140330T0145Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
905 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
 
* UNTIL 945 PM EDT  
 
* AT 904 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED  
OVER GARNER...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF RALEIGH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST  
AT 30 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A RAIN WRAPPED  
TORNADO MAY BE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
RALEIGH...WAKE FOREST...GARNER...ZEBULON...KNIGHTDALE...WENDELL AND  
ROLESVILLE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3597 7842 3594 7840 3593 7836 3590 7833  
3589 7830 3583 7826 3582 7826 3575 7838  
3571 7847 3557 7865 3566 7872 3599 7845  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 221DEG 28KT 3566 7862  
 
 
32  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
1009. Patrap
Rare to see Nado warnings on West and East coast at the same time.

TORNADO WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 905 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 601 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 525 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 809 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
@2105hrs.



LLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
905 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 904 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER GARNER...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF RALEIGH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A RAIN WRAPPED
TORNADO MAY BE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...WAKE FOREST...GARNER...ZEBULON...KNIGHTDALE...WENDELL AND
ROLESVILLE.
1011. sar2401
Quoting redwagon:


What's disturbing is that when activity was in the Alley, it was nearly 100% in the daytime when you could see to run. Now in the Southern Belt, they happen half the time in the middle of the night, no fair chance of avoiding them.

Even the ones that do come during the day tend to be rain wrapped and can sneak up on you, even with radar. In addition to the visibility issues, there aren't a lot of roads out in rural areas, unlike the traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains, so it's hard to escape even if you locate the tornado. I was spotting a tornado on radar that had already been seen on the ground by other spotters but no one was exactly sure of the direction of travel. I was about five minutes away and tried to pick it up visually when I lost my internet and cell phone signal and couldn't see the couplet that was there a second ago. I couldn't even contact anyone on the ham radio repeater. It was raining so heavily that I could only see about a hundred feet. Hail started to fall and I thought that's enough of this. I happened across a church that was open and me and the janitor headed to basement. The tornado went about 300 yards south of us about a minute after we got in the basement. The church lost about half the windows and most of the shingles, and my SUV was minus a back window.

If you want to chase tornadoes, don't do it in Alabama. It could easily get you killed.
Quoting 986. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Gotta love rapid intensification.



Christ

Good thing not many people live in the western side of Madagascar
tornado warning is 35miles west of me, odd not much lightning or thunder
Up to date severe weather warnings..,,


http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
1015. Dakster
Quoting 1013. number4steel:
tornado warning is 35miles west of me, odd not much lightning or thunder


Interesting Avatar there...

Anyways, I think I am going to miss the brunt of the rain and just get some light rain.
it is right on top of ral radar located in clayton , nc
1017. Patrap
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
SH212014 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) HELLEN



Click Image above for Loop

Current imagery and loops of 4km remapped and color enhanced infrared (IR) imagery is displayed in an earth fixed coordinate system. IR imagery (~11 um) from five geostationary satellites are remapped to a common 4km resolution Mercator projection in an identical manner as the CIRA Tropical Cyclone Image Archive described in (Mueller et al. (2006) . These images are then centered and displayed using the nearest 5 degree latitude/longitude earth coordinate based on the most recent location and past 12-h movement. The images are also color enhanced with the coldest temperatures/highest clouds displayed as colored shades as shown in this color bar.
Quoting 1015. Dakster:


Interesting Avatar there...

Anyways, I think I am going to miss the brunt of the rain and just get some light rain.
used to run a cornhole tourney as a fund raiser
Texas always seems to be in the red, tornadoes, drought, and politics of course :P

1020. Patrap
1021. Dakster
Quoting 1018. number4steel:
used to run a cornhole tourney as a fund raiser


Ohh... Got it.

And hopefully no tornado for you.
Quoting 1016. number4steel:
it is right on top of ral radar located in clayton , nc
It's about 5 miles to west of KRAX. I know because I used to work where tornado just went over.
Quoting 1011. sar2401:

Even the ones that do come during the day tend to be rain wrapped and can sneak up on you, even with radar. In addition to the visibility issues, there aren't a lot of roads out in rural areas, unlike the traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains, so it's hard to escape even if you locate the tornado. I was spotting a tornado on radar that had already been seen on the ground by other spotters but no one was exactly sure of the direction of travel. I was about five minutes away and tried to pick it up visually when I lost my internet and cell phone signal and couldn't see the couplet that was there a second ago. I couldn't even contact anyone on the ham radio repeater. It was raining so heavily that I could only see about a hundred feet. Hail started to fall and I thought that's enough of this. I happened across a church that was open and me and the janitor headed to basement. The tornado went about 300 yards south of us about a minute after we got in the basement. The church lost about half the windows and most of the shingles, and my SUV was minus a back window.

If you want to chase tornadoes, don't do it in Alabama. It could easily get you killed.


That is nuts, I agree, Alabama is not the place to chase tornadoes.

Really though, part of the reason for the increase in tornadoes being rain wrapped is the airmasses are typically more moist in the deep south with severe events, heavier precip rates make it more likely that heavy rain will wrap around and obscure a tornado. It doesn't happen every time, but a large amount of tornadoes in the deep south and Florida are rain wrapped because of higher moisture yields.

Yeah storm chasing in Alabama is like storm chasing in Florida thick forests and rain wrapped tornadoes = no bueno, only worse because you guys get more violent tornadoes than us.
any new tornado warning yet??
local met rolling non stop Doppler coverage wral.com minor ground damage reported . weak tornado( unless your in it) has good rotation but not much lightning still very odd
Tornado just went over shopping centers (pink square dot on map) where me, my friends, and my family goes to all the time. Us locals call that place White Oak. I'm expecting minor to moderate damage as it's well built area.



9:19pm ET: Damage reported in a subdivision near Garner, #NC. #Tornado warning continues until 9:45pm. Take shelter
Quoting 1026. Bluestorm5:
Tornado just went over shopping centers (pink square dot on map) where me, my friends, and my family goes to all the time. Us locals call that place White Oak. I'm expecting minor to moderate damage as it's well built area.





Nice hook echo!!!!
battle bridge towards eagle rock up next. lizard lick futher down the line
its been showing debris on radar. I work in that area for Telco company
Quoting 1006. Bluestorm5:
Well, things got impressive with hook echo showing up on radar near Raleigh. It went west of my house by 10 miles so my area is good.




Geeze that's a bit of a surprise!
Quoting 1025. number4steel:
local met rolling non stop Doppler coverage wral.com minor ground damage reported . weak tornado( unless your in it) has good rotation but not much lightning still very odd
Thanks, wow people taking shelter along the aisles in the grocery stores. I think they said the storm is moving northeast at 38 mph. no surprise how fast it is moving.
1033. sar2401
Washington authorities: Confirmed dead rises to 18; number of missing drops to 30 in mudslide

DARRINGTON, Wash. (AP) — Washington authorities: Confirmed dead rises to 18; number of missing drops to 30 in mudslide.

Not much of a story but I hope it's true. 30 missing sounds more in line with my experience in mudslides of this size and a community of this size.
Link

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICALE HELLEN (14-20132014)
4:00 AM RET March 30 2014
===============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Hellen (970 hPa) located at 14.1S 44.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrant, and up to 75 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 14.5S 44.9E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)
24 HRS 14.5S 44.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)
48 HRS 14.9S 43.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 15.5S 42.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=========================

Hellen keeps on intensifying rapidly and shows a pinhole eye in infrared imagery since 2100z.

Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward, Hellen will keep on tracking south-eastwards during the next 24 hours. Along-track environmental conditions are favorable during the next 12 to 24 hours. System is lying under an upper level ridge axis aloft. Vertical wind shear is weak (5m/s according to CIMSS at 1800z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18s. Sea surface temperatures are very high over this area (29-30C).

Sunday late, the mid-tropospheric near-equatorial ridge is expected to weaken. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down clearly. On and after Monday, Hellen should re-curve westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding southward. Hellen should keep on tracking on this west southwest path up to its landfall Wednesday night or Thursday on the Mozambican coastlines in the area of Quelimane.

On this expected path, the upper level wind shear strengthening Monday is expected to weaken clearly this small system. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level wind shear is expected to weaken again. The intensity forecast is uncertain according to the small size of the system and its sensibility to the variation of the environmental conditions.

It is not totally excluded that system get more closer to Madagascar than the mentioned forecast. Some available numerical weather prediction models suggest a track close to Mahajonga or Besalampy coastlines.

Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. The inhabitants of the northwestern coasts of Madagascar should also monitor the progress of this system.
1035. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 905 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 601 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 525 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 809 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 737 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 712 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/756/web

Live Police/Fire feed Garner NC!!!!
1037. Dakster
Quoting 1033. sar2401:
Washington authorities: Confirmed dead rises to 18; number of missing drops to 30 in mudslide

DARRINGTON, Wash. (AP) — Washington authorities: Confirmed dead rises to 18; number of missing drops to 30 in mudslide.

Not much of a story but I hope it's true. 30 missing sounds more in line with my experience in mudslides of this size and a community of this size.
Link



At least the number missing is going down and the potential fatalities are as well. Any loss is horrible - especially if it is your loved one. Please don't take my statement as trivializing the loss of life.
Good evening everybody. Today is my one year anniversary of joining the wunderground community and I just want to thank everyone in the wunderground community for a great year. I have learned a lot of things about meteorology just from being here. Of course, high schools don't offer a meteorology course/elective. So, as a result, I had to observe the weather and figure it out myself....which I eventually did. But I have learned more about the weather from being on this blog than I have during the previous twelve years that I've had this interest. 

It felt very weird and uncomfortable at first; having people that are my age or even slightly younger who knew more about meteorology than I did. But now I take that fact with great appreciation knowing that there are other people who have the same interest that I do, knowing that all of you will help me reach my utlimate goal of becoming a meteorologist that reports in big storms like hurricanes, like blizzards, like dust storms(haboobs), etc. 

I also want to thank Dr. Jeff Masters for putting these blogs up. I want to thank the people that put up the blogs for Dr. Jeff Masters when he is too busy to put them up himself. I know that a lot of time and effort goes into making these blogs.

Now I wish all of you meteorolonerds the best of luck wherever the wind blows you. And if possible, I hope that we could do a meet up somewhere so we could actually see each-other in person.


Once again- Thank you wunderground community.
Quoting 1018. number4steel:
used to run a cornhole tourney as a fund raiser
Wait, are you the guy that make all of those cornholes for people in Johnston County? I keep seeing those cornholes at events in Cleveland community near Cleveland High School.
cell seems to be losing some punch and fanning out/ cell towards fayetville picking up a litle
It's odd and scary that tornado went over places where I am very familiar with. I go to shopping centers that just got hit once every two weeks.
Quoting 1035. Patrap:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 905 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 601 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 525 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 809 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 737 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 712 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014


Whoa. I just sms'd the honorable estranged spouse, I hope he is paying attention. He spends most of his free time FPS gaming. Thanks for posting this.

Quoting 1041. Bluestorm5:
It's odd and scary that tornado went over places where I am very familiar with. I go to shopping centers that just got hit once every two weeks.
I'm glad that you're safe bro.
negative I don't make the boards , but I am friends with him . I helped set up the tourney as a fund raiser. btw he is a class act and his boards are second to none
Quoting 966. nonblanche:


Last year's snowmelt waiting for this year's rain.

I waved in your direction as my train took me from Truckee to Grand Junction to visit the kidlet. It looked like quite the dust storm getting kicked up somewhere to the east of your location.
update
Quoting 1020. Patrap:
I thought I remembered the forecast suggesting no Madagascar landfall... question now is, how strong is it likely to get? Storms this small spin up fast, but they can spin down quickly too... so even a major isn't guaranteed to stay that way once adverse conditions appear.
Quoting 1044. number4steel:
negative I don't make the boards , but I am friends with him . I helped set up the tourney as a fund raiser. btw he is a class act and his boards are second to none
Gotcha! His boards look very well made whenever I see them! I know JoCo loves their game of cornhole :)
1049. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Texas always seems to be in the red, tornadoes, drought, and politics of course :P



However, if you break it down by the number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles, Florida is far out in front of any other state, at 9.59. Louisiana, Iowa, Indiana, Oklahoma, in ascending order, round out the top 5 at 6 or more tornadoes per 10,000 sq. miles. Texas is #7, behind Mississippi. Alabama is #12.

Link
Quoting 1045. oldnewmex:

I waved in your direction as my train took me from Truckee to Grand Junction to visit the kidlet. It looked like quite the dust storm getting kicked up somewhere to the east of your location.


Yeah, I can almost see it. We got the gazebo posts concreted and braced and I finished the next set of concrete forms just as the winds kicked up.

I'd take pics but it's too windy to get up on the roof for the REALLY good shots.
us north Carolina rednecks love it. we will play or race anything. used to paint numbers on roaches and race them . tornado warning has been expanded
the more you look at it on expanded radar, it looks like a mini low pressure swirling across central nc
Quoting 1051. number4steel:
us north Carolina rednecks love it. we will play or race anything. used to paint numbers on roaches and race them . tornado warning has been expanded
I'm from Cleveland communitity, btw. Right now I'm away at a college in Asheville NC.
1054. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


At least the number missing is going down and the potential fatalities are as well. Any loss is horrible - especially if it is your loved one. Please don't take my statement as trivializing the loss of life.

Not at all. The number of known dead, compared to confirmed fatalities, is actually 27, but the authorities are making sure that they have the right remains before adding them to the confirmed list. Apparently some of the remains are not in good condition. At least the missing number is going down, which makes the search more manageable, and more hopeful that all the remains will be found. I've worked a number of large mudslides in conditions somewhat similar to the one in Washington, but this one must have been much more violent than any I've worked. It sounds like it was more akin to a mud avalanche than a typical slide.
Quoting 1033. sar2401:
Washington authorities: Confirmed dead rises to 18; number of missing drops to 30 in mudslide

DARRINGTON, Wash. (AP) — Washington authorities: Confirmed dead rises to 18; number of missing drops to 30 in mudslide.

Not much of a story but I hope it's true. 30 missing sounds more in line with my experience in mudslides of this size and a community of this size.
Link

That drop is good to hear... though 30 dead is still a lot.

Hardly a breeze here in central Raleigh! And a tornado in Garner. Went to the basement with the critters anyhow just in case. Back in the house now, still no breeze. Rain coming straight down.
Meanwhile, the FL end of the line is starting to make it into Bahamian waters... looks like Freeport is starting to get some decent rain...



Who's ready to party???
Whadya know about ABBA, honey chile??? lol

That made me laugh... lol...
Garner is experiencing flooding, evacuations taking place at this time.
Bentonville born and raised, live in Princeton now
ground is real wet , any kind of wind swirling and trees will lay over
Hear that roar from the wind.

Sounds like a night to be looking out in central NC...
Quoting 1061. number4steel:
Bentonville born and raised, live in Princeton now
Princeton is a classy little town, that's for sure!
1066. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 947 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 905 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 601 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 525 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 809 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 737 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 712 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
maybe the show is over night all , sleep well
1068. Patrap
Hellen looks amazing


-_-


(mm)
-_-
Quoting 1070. CaribBoy:


-_-


(mm)
-_-


Did you get any precip?
Which Island in that map is yours?
Quoting 1049. sar2401:


However, if you break it down by the number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles, Florida is far out in front of any other state, at 9.59. Louisiana, Iowa, Indiana, Oklahoma, in ascending order, round out the top 5 at 6 or more tornadoes per 10,000 sq. miles. Texas is #7, behind Mississippi. Alabama is #12.

Link

You have to keep in mind the size of the states as well ;)
1073. Dakster
Quoting 1072. TylerStanfield:

You have to keep in mind the size of the states as well ;)


In that case Alaska should be number #1. That map isn't to scale as far as Alaska is concerned...

So, Size doesn't always matter.
1074. Patrap
Closest I came to a F-3 was during Hurricane Elena Sept 85' in Gulf Port,Long Beach area off of Pass Road near the Seabee Base.

As the eyewall came in we had a Nado warning, heard it coming from the east, then it Skipped up and over us and peeled the roof off a High School Gymnasium which was the Local Shelter.

The Seabee's/State Police went into that area during the eye and got them folks out and to the base in Amtrac's.



A short clip as Hurricane Elena's textbook eye moves over Biloxi, Mississippi on the morning of September 2, 1985.

The 1:20 sec mark is cool.

Quoting 1071. PedleyCA:


Did you get any precip?
Which Island in that map is yours?


The one with 0.4mm of rain (24h rainfall). It's the dry season, I shouldn't be surprised after all. Lol
Lol anyone saw this yet


Too funny
1077. Patrap
1078. Dakster
There was at least one Hurricane recorded previously in March... So not totally out of the question, just rare.

I found a 1908 March Hurricane.
Quoting 1075. CaribBoy:


The one with 0.4mm of rain (24h rainfall). It's the dry season, I shouldn't be surprised after all. Lol


We have .23" for the Month, .01 this week. There are a couple of chances coming up this week. Almost the dry season here too.
Quoting 1078. Dakster:
There was at least one Hurricane recorded previously in March... So not totally out of the question, just rare.

I found a 1908 March Hurricane.


How much rain did you get?

Quoting 1076. wunderkidcayman:
Lol anyone saw this yet


Too funny
Nope............................... now I have.
Beautiful.

1083. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beautiful.


I don't see anything.
Quoting 1083. sar2401:

I don't see anything.


thats why its so beautiful .. use your imagination !!
1085. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

You have to keep in mind the size of the states as well ;)

The number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles puts all the states on the same playing field unless I'm missing something.
1086. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
That drop is good to hear... though 30 dead is still a lot.


They still aren't sure how many of those 30 missing are actually still to be found in the mudslide. Oso is rather like some of the towns along the Russian River, especially Rio Nido, where we had a big mudslide. Some of the people who live there don't want to be on any list, sometimes because the engage in illegal agricultural pursuits, sometimes because they have warrants, and others because they are survivalist types who just don't want the government to know they exist. Believe me, it's way different than just picking up the phone and asking "Hey, have you seen Bobby lately".
1087. sar2401
Quoting whitewabit:


thats why its so beautiful .. use your imagination !!

LOL. In my imagination, I'm still 25 years old...until I have to pick something up. :-)
Good Night Peeps - Hopefully I can get to Bed without any further Earthquakes happening. Stay Safe All - Sleep Well - Stay Warm
NWS Reno:

Winds subsiding along Highway 395 as colder air works into the region.
Gusts of 30-40 miles per hour remain likely overnight in these areas but
below advisory levels. Snow is pouring down in the Tahoe basin
with major travel problems over the Sierra passes.
Snow is
dropping south into Mono co, perhaps a couple hours slower than
earlier guidance had indicated. 23z hrrr picked up well on trends
with snow and show snow starting to taper off in the Tahoe basin
between 6-8z. Spillover into far western Nevada has been hard to come by,
but radar trends in the past hour show a solid band of heavier
precipitation working into western Nevada that may finally get US a period of
lower elevation rains for Reno/Carson City/Minden. Susanville on
the other hand was under the precipitation band much of today - with
nearly 2 inches of rain.
Impressive.


Be nice if we got some rain. It feels like we might, but like I've said, we right in this spot get dry-slotted a lot.

Someone coming by tomorrow to check out some of our goats. We've got to sell off a bunch, our pasture isn't up to what 14 (plus the season's kids) goats will do, and what 40% irrigation won't do.

Edit: Oh sar, I found this: http://www.wunderground.com/StateSnowDepth.asp?sta te=NV and the Pine Nuts aren't listed at all. I'll ask if anyone knows for sure next time I'm in town.
1090. Gearsts

Quoting 1063. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hear that roar from the wind.

I don't even know what it's like to experience a Frances-strength storm anymore, much less forecast one.

Those were the days...
Quoting 1082. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beautiful.


*blushes*

Aww...shucks. Thanks Cody.
Quoting 1084. whitewabit:


thats why its so beautiful .. use your imagination !!
Ah so that's what type of guy you are eh...

Quoting 1093. washingtonian115:
Ah so that's what type of guy you are eh...
The more interesting personalities of a person reserve themselves for a crowd the person exhibiting the personality is comfortable with.

I love it, too. Keeps things lively.
Current advisory has upped Hellen's intensity quite a bit to 90kts, but I think that's still really conservative. I think it's easily over 110kts right now.

Quoting 1095. Ameister12:
Current advisory has upped Hellen's intensity quite a bit to 90kts, but I think that's still really conservative. I think it's easily over 110kts right now.
"Easily"? With the southern eyewall still quite open?
Quoting 1096. KoritheMan:

"Easily"? With the southern eyewall still quite open?

Open? The southern eyewall is anything but open. If you mean the -80C convection doesn't wrap fully around the eye, why would it need to? That's typically only a criteria needed for Category 5 strength.
Wait... that tapping sound on my roof... could it be?

Quoting 1097. TropicalAnalystwx13:
That's typically only a criteria needed for Category 5 strength.
Even if that's true, it still may not quite be at 110 kt yet. I've been at work all day, but it takes time for winds in the PBL to reach the surface following intense convective bursts.
Quoting 1096. KoritheMan:

"Easily"? With the southern eyewall still quite open?

Doesn't look open to me.
Quoting 1099. KoritheMan:

Even if that's true, it still may not quite be at 110 kt yet. I've been at work all day, but it takes time for winds in the PBL to reach the surface following intense convective bursts.


I think you're just upset Hellen isn't paying YOU a visit.


Quoting 1100. Ameister12:

Doesn't look open to me.
Amended. Take a look at my response to Cody.

You win, Adam. :)

Quoting 1101. Astrometeor:


I think you're just upset Hellen isn't paying YOU a visit.

The only reason I'm not is because it's not native to the Atlantic. It's a physical impossibility for it getting here.
Quoting 1103. KoritheMan:

The only reason I'm not is because it's not native to the Atlantic. It's a physical impossibility for it getting here.


Nah, all it has to do is catch Flight 370 over here. Piece of cake.
1105. sar2401
Quoting nonblanche:
NWS Reno:

Winds subsiding along Highway 395 as colder air works into the region.
Gusts of 30-40 miles per hour remain likely overnight in these areas but
below advisory levels. Snow is pouring down in the Tahoe basin
with major travel problems over the Sierra passes.
Snow is
dropping south into Mono co, perhaps a couple hours slower than
earlier guidance had indicated. 23z hrrr picked up well on trends
with snow and show snow starting to taper off in the Tahoe basin
between 6-8z. Spillover into far western Nevada has been hard to come by,
but radar trends in the past hour show a solid band of heavier
precipitation working into western Nevada that may finally get US a period of
lower elevation rains for Reno/Carson City/Minden. Susanville on
the other hand was under the precipitation band much of today - with
nearly 2 inches of rain.
Impressive.


Be nice if we got some rain. It feels like we might, but like I've said, we right in this spot get dry-slotted a lot.

Someone coming by tomorrow to check out some of our goats. We've got to sell off a bunch, our pasture isn't up to what 14 (plus the season's kids) goats will do, and what 40% irrigation won't do.

Edit: Oh sar, I found this: http://www.wunderground.com/StateSnowDepth.asp?sta te=NV and the Pine Nuts aren't listed at all. I'll ask if anyone knows for sure next time I'm in town.

Looks like a snow streak is trying to set up over Carson on radar but it's not having much success. Everything out east looks too warm. It looks like this will be a multi-day event, so you maybe still have a chance for some of this to make it across the Hill and give you some snow and rain.

I'm not surprised that the Pine Nuts aren't listed. It's one of those isolated mountain ranges in Nevada that's only 40 miles long and doesn't having a living soul on it. I've never seen any sign of an automated reporting system anywhere, and I've been all over those mountains. It's actually a pretty area is some spots and, if you want a place to squat and get away from everything and everybody, it wouldn't be a bad spot.

Quoting 1104. Astrometeor:


Nah, all it has to do is catch Flight 370 over here. Piece of cake.
Would be interesting to get lambasted with a hurricane that spins the other way, though.

Captivating, even.
2014MAR30 040000 3.9 980.7/ +3.1 / 63.0 3.9 4.2 6.6 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -23.96 -77.15 EYE -99 IR -13.99 -44.08 SPRL
One last thing then it's bedtime. Y'all are way too interesting.

This was the first storm in years where I had a monster migraine ahead of the front. It didn't ease off until the wind got here.

(in the 1970's before forecasters had Science, I depended on my migraines to tell me extreme weather was on the way.)
Moderate swell in Tres Palmas today...





Quoting 1102. KoritheMan:

Amended. Take a look at my response to Cody.

You win, Adam. :)



But, thinking back at my analysis, saying it's "easily" over 110kts might be a bit excessive, however I do think it's at least a higher end category 3 right now.

I do get too excited when nice cyclones like Hellen come around. :)
Winds are really picking up here. Maybe 30 mph gusts right now with the forecast of 60 mph gusts for tomorrow morning.
Quoting 1111. Bluestorm5:
Winds are really picking up here. Maybe 30 mph gusts right now with the forecast of 60 mph gusts for tomorrow morning.
You made it through the big storms in Raleigh.

Oh, you are in Asheville, never mind
Quoting 1112. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
You made it through the big storms in Raleigh.

Oh, you are in Asheville, never mind
Yeah, few people had it mixed up. Tornado did run over my local shopping centers though...
Completely forgot to share this, but I ended up winning Force-13's hypothetical hurricane season contest and got a nice animation made for my season.

I know I've said this before, but this is absolutely not my forecast for 2014 and I'd like to apologize if any of the landfalls, or (in Kori's case) lack of landfalls offends you.

Also, thanks for all the votes! I really appreciate it. :)

Quoting 1115. Ameister12:
Completely forgot to share this, but I ended up winning Force-13's hypothetical hurricane season contest and got a nice animation made for my season.

I know I've said this before, but this is absolutely not my forecast for 2014 and I'd like to apologize if any of the landfalls, or (in Kori's case) lack of landfalls offends you.

Also, thanks for all the votes! I really appreciate it. :)
If a hypothetical offends someone, that person has issues.

Hypothetical =/= reality. If it did, Baton Rouge would have been smashed several times since Gustav courtesy of me. :P
Tornado in Cali? Strange stuff is happenin' over there.



Edit: Replaced URL to show correct info.
Helen NOAA forecast
Time of Latest Forecast: 201403300000
Forecast Hour Latitude Longitude Intensity
0 -14.1 43.9 90
12 -14.5 44.3 110
24 -14.8 44.7 120
36 -15.1 45.1 105
48 -15.5 44.8 85
72 -16.1 43.1 65
96 -16.8 41.3 55
120 -17.6 39.5 45

Quoting 1116. KoritheMan:

If a hypothetical offends someone, that person has issues.

Hypothetical =/= reality. If it did, Baton Rouge would have been smashed several times since Gustav courtesy of me. :P

I seriously doubt anybody will actually be offended by it; I wasn't being serious with that comment. :P
For ECFL highest wind was 54mph at Haulover Canal.

Close second, our very own..

0322 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S INDIALANTIC 28.05N 80.56W
03/29/2014 M51.00 MPH AMZ552 FL MESONET

WEATHER UNDERGROUND MESONET SITE.


Trailer in Melbourne lost part of it's roof. Sanford got the worst of the hail. Isle of Pines Subdivision in Orange County had trees down all over with houses hit. Lightning caught a house on fire in Lady Lake. Power lines all over Palm Bay Rd. Local reports.

Quoting 1076. wunderkidcayman:
Lol anyone saw this yet


Too funny
Nah. Arthur? LOL.:)
http://youtu.be/GGSyAmkDmxI
Quoting 1120. Skyepony:
For ECFL highest wind was 54mph at Haulover Canal.

Close second, our very own..

0322 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S INDIALANTIC 28.05N 80.56W
03/29/2014 M51.00 MPH AMZ552 FL MESONET

WEATHER UNDERGROUND MESONET SITE.


Trailer in Melbourne lost part of it's roof. Sanford got the worst of the hail. Isle of Pines Subdivision in Orange County had trees down all over with houses hit. Lightning caught a house on fire in Lady Lake. Power lines all over Palm Bay Rd. Local reports.




The power line and tree damage is probably 60 to 70 mph winds.

HELLEN
Second frame of daylight for the day.. Click pic to loop.

Quoting 1115. Ameister12:
Completely forgot to share this, but I ended up winning Force-13's hypothetical hurricane season contest and got a nice animation made for my season.

I know I've said this before, but this is absolutely not my forecast for 2014 and I'd like to apologize if any of the landfalls, or (in Kori's case) lack of landfalls offends you.

Also, thanks for all the votes! I really appreciate it. :)


does Force 13 use the same music in all their vids, lol?
Quoting 1115. Ameister12:
Completely forgot to share this, but I ended up winning Force-13's hypothetical hurricane season contest and got a nice animation made for my season.

I know I've said this before, but this is absolutely not my forecast for 2014 and I'd like to apologize if any of the landfalls, or (in Kori's case) lack of landfalls offends you.

Also, thanks for all the votes! I really appreciate it. :)


I really hope your Hurricane Laura prediction doesnt come true... 160 mph hit on Tampa would be like 200 billion in damage, not to mention the death toll


Good reference map
Quoting 1082. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beautiful.

Looks like Madagascar is going to get a serious "brush" from Hellen before it moves away...

Quoting 1083. sar2401:

I don't see anything.
They're called glasses, sar... u pull out the long skinny parts and hook them over your ears so you can see through the clear parts...

Quoting 1085. sar2401:

The number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles puts all the states on the same playing field unless I'm missing something.
Does RI even HAVE 10000 sq miles?



We look set to get some wx through here around 4 a.m.

Okay, be that way...

Someone earlier was asking about video of liquefaction. I wasn't sure any existed until I found this from the 2011 Japan quake. Simply incredible video.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICALE INTENSE HELLEN (14-20132014)
10:00 AM RET March 30 2014
===============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Hellen (948 hPa) located at 14.4S 44.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 14.8S 44.7E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropicale Intense)
24 HRS 15.1S 44.9E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)
48 HRS 15.7S 44.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempte Tropicale)
72 HRS 16.6S 41.8E - 35 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modre)

Additional Information
=========================

Hellen has undergo an astounding rapid intensification over the last 24 hours that brings the system from a moderate tropical storm to an intense tropical cyclone. The system show this morning an impressive satellite presentation with a still improving eye pattern. The current estimation of the intensity is based on manual Dvorak estimates with a 3 hrs average at 6.15 in good agreement with the NESDIS ADT at 6.1 at 0600z.

The system is lying under an upper level ridge axis aloft. Vertical wind shear is weak (5m/s according to CIMSS at 1800z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18S. Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward, Hellen will keep on tracking slowly southeastwards during the next 6 hours before being within a too slow steering environment that should lead to a quasi-stat motion. Therefore, the max intensity could be reached within the next 6h to 12 hrs with a max at 110 to potentially 115 knots. A weakening trend initiated by induced cold sea surface temperatures may taken place after that time.The intensity forecast remains uncertain according to the small size of the system and its sensibility to the variation of the environmental conditions.

Sunday night, the mid-tropospheric near-equatorial ridge is expected to weaken. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down clearly. On and after Monday, Hellen should re-curve westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding southward. Hellen should keep on tracking on this west southwest path up to its landfall Wednesday night or Thursday on the Mozambican coastlines in the area of Quelimane.

It is not totally excluded that system get more closer to Madagascar than the mentioned forecast. Some available numerical weather prediction models suggest a track close to Mahajonga or Besalampy coastlines.

Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. The inhabitants of the northwestern coasts of Madagascar should also monitor the progress of this system.


wow, really good storm...

2014MAR30 023000 4.8 973.4 84.8 4.8 6.1 6.3
2014MAR30 030000 5.0 969.4 90.0 5.0 6.1 6.3
2014MAR30 033000 5.3 963.8 97.2 5.3 6.1 6.8 1
2014MAR30 060000 6.1 947.0 117.4 6.1 6.2 6.6
2014MAR30 063000 6.2 944.8 119.8 6.2 6.2 6.8 4
2014MAR30 070000 6.2 943.1 119.8 6.2 6.

classic rapid deepening
Link

the images of the bubbles coming from the ground was interesting plus the fact that the aftershocks have spread
Morning all.

Well, that was pretty much a non-event for New Providence, as we got some rain around 3 a.m. and... that's it. Looks like the main action stayed north and south of us.

Quoting 1074. Patrap:
Closest I came to a F-3 was during Hurricane Elena Sept 85' in Gulf Port,Long Beach area off of Pass Road near the Seabee Base.

As the eyewall came in we had a Nado warning, heard it coming from the east, then it Skipped up and over us and peeled the roof off a High School Gymnasium which was the Local Shelter.

The Seabee's/State Police went into that area during the eye and got them folks out and to the base in Amtrac's.



A short clip as Hurricane Elena's textbook eye moves over Biloxi, Mississippi on the morning of September 2, 1985.

The 1:20 sec mark is cool.



my uncle/godfather was a Seabee and one of my heroes...
Current @ 2 a.m. EDT:



The pre-frontal trough has gone through, but we're still waiting on the front itself. Outside it's warm and still... airport was reporting 75 and light SW winds at 6 a.m. We may see a few more showers later today, but I'm not expecting lots more.


Here comes Summer in FL. Typically in April we can start hitting 90 nearly everyday. People on here battling me on this several weeks back well here you go.

Orlando
Quoting 1113. sunlinepr:


The Southerm jet is very active this year. Looks like April is going to be very wet as well across FL
It should be a nice day for the beach with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 with low humidity.

But keep your eyes on your kids. There could be some rip currents today with rough surf.
Fort Myers Coastal Waters

1.40" of rain yesterday,
That brings my weather station total to 4.04" for the month.
Normal for Fort Myers is 2.88" (officially at Page Field Airport).
So I'm doing pretty good.
1142. LargoFl
Quoting 1138. StormTrackerScott:
Here comes Summer in FL. Typically in April we can start hitting 90 nearly everyday. People on here battling me on this several weeks back well here you go.

Orlando
yes a nice warm up is coming for us.
1143. LargoFl
Good Morning..action is up in the northeast today...
1144. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO STEADY RISES OF CREEKS AND STREAMS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
1145. LargoFl
alot of flood warnings and watches up in the northeast today..stay safe up there...
1146. LargoFl
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
3 hours ago
Magnitude: 2.5
DateTime: 2014-03-30 03:13:59
Region: Greater Los Angeles area, California
Depth: 0.2
Source: USGS Feed
1147. LargoFl
I wonder whats going on in california..every day several earthquakes,sometimes 3-4 of them..as a kid there were stories of california falling into the ocean after the big one hits..wonder iF that story is still going around today?
1148. LargoFl
Oklahoma also 1-2 every day now..........













WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
3 hours ago
Magnitude: 4.3
DateTime: 2014-03-30 03:42:36
Region: Oklahoma
Depth: 5
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed
NWS in Melbourne is going out to Lake Nona to see if all the damage in that area was caused by a tornado or straight line winds.
IMO All these little Quakes in Cali are leading up to a big one as all the Quakes seem to be focusing on a Fault Line in SO Cal.
Flood Warning



Mobile & Email Alerts
Statement as of 5:29 AM EDT on March 30, 2014


The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Housatonic River at Stevenson dam.
* From this morning until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 5 am Sunday the stage was... 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river is forecast to reach flood stage by 7 am
Sunday and forecast to continue to rise to near 11.7 feet around 8
PM Sunday. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage after 11
am Tuesday.
* Impact... at 11.5 feet... water reaches The Maples area of Shelton.


Fld observed forecast
8 am 2 PM 8 PM 2 am 8 am
location stg stg day time sun sun sun Mon Mon

Housatonic River
Stevenson da 11.0 9.9 sun 5 am 11.3 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.7
Flood Warning



Mobile & Email Alerts
Statement as of 5:29 AM EDT on March 30, 2014


The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Housatonic River at Stevenson dam.
* From this morning until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 5 am Sunday the stage was... 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river is forecast to reach flood stage by 7 am
Sunday and forecast to continue to rise to near 11.7 feet around 8
PM Sunday. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage after 11
am Tuesday.
* Impact... at 11.5 feet... water reaches The Maples area of Shelton.


Fld observed forecast
8 am 2 PM 8 PM 2 am 8 am
location stg stg day time sun sun sun Mon Mon

Housatonic River
Stevenson da 11.0 9.9 sun 5 am 11.3 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.7
Magnitude mb 4.8
Region YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING

Date time 2014-03-30 12:34:42.0 UTC
Location 44.77 N ; 110.66 W
Depth 5 km
Distances 744 km S of Calgary, Canada / pop: 1,019,942 / local time: 06:34:42.0 2014-03-30
229 km SE of Helena, United States / pop: 28,190 / local time: 06:34:42.0 2014-03-30
99 km S of Livingston, United States / pop: 7,044 / local time: 06:34:42.0 2014-03-30
37 km E of West Yellowstone, United States / pop: 1,271 / local time: 06:34:42.0 2014-03-30
Wow,what an incredible shot of lighting stricking the Eiffel tower in Paris.



flooding
Quoting 1153. Luisport:
Magnitude mb 4.8
Region YELLOWSTONE NAT. PARK, WYOMING

Date time 2014-03-30 12:34:42.0 UTC
Location 44.77 N ; 110.66 W
Depth 5 km
Distances 744 km S of Calgary, Canada / pop: 1,019,942 / local time: 06:34:42.0 2014-03-30
229 km SE of Helena, United States / pop: 28,190 / local time: 06:34:42.0 2014-03-30
99 km S of Livingston, United States / pop: 7,044 / local time: 06:34:42.0 2014-03-30
37 km E of West Yellowstone, United States / pop: 1,271 / local time: 06:34:42.0 2014-03-30
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel · 18 min
Just in: At 6:34am MDT, a magnitude-4.8 #earthquake struck Yellowstone National Park in northwestern Wyoming.

Quoting 1155. hurricanes2018:
flooding


Location please
[b]The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel · 4 min
Yellowstone #earthquake (M4.8) was preceded by a 3.0 foreshock at 4:36am MDT, about 2 hours before the main shock.

[/b]
Quoting 1156. Luisport:
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel · 18 min
Just in: At 6:34am MDT, a magnitude-4.8 #earthquake struck Yellowstone National Park in northwestern Wyoming.



Am I reading it correctly that it was just followed by a 3.1 in the same location at 0930EDT?
Quoting 1157. decaturgarden:


Location please
east haven,conn
Quoting 1159. decaturgarden:


Am I reading it correctly that it was just followed by a 3.1 in the same location at 0930EDT?
yes
Oklahoma Earthquakes: Overnight Swarm Produces State's Strongest Quakes of 2014

swarm of earthquakes struck central Oklahoma Saturday and early Sunday, producing the state's strongest quakes so far in 2014, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The primary swarm of earthquakes was centered in northwestern Logan County and northeastern Kingfisher County, about 12 miles north of Crescent.

In that cluster, the USGS recorded nine earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 2.6 to 4.3 between 10 p.m. CDT Saturday and 7 a.m. Sunday. The two earthquakes measuring 4.3 on the moment magnitude scale were the strongest earthquakes so far in 2014 in Oklahoma, eclipsing a 4.1 jolt centered near Langston on Feb. 8.

The pair of magnitude-4.3 tremors, which occurred at 1:51 a.m. and 3:42 a.m. CDT Sunday respectively, were both felt across a wide area. The "Did You Feel It?" section of the USGS website received reports of shaking as far north as the Kansas City metropolitan area and as far south as Norman, Okla., from both earthquakes. Vibrations were also felt as far east as the Tulsa area from both incidents.

A separate cluster of earthquakes occurred near Choctaw, an eastern suburb of Oklahoma City, on Saturday and Saturday night. Six earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 2.4 to 3.7 were reported between 1 a.m. CDT Saturday and 1 a.m. CDT Sunday. The strongest temblor occurred at 10:08 p.m. Saturday and was felt across much of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area
Quoting 1160. hurricanes2018:
east haven,conn

Thank you!
Quoting 1161. Luisport:
yes


Has anyone come up with a reason for the swarm of earthquakes in Oklahoma?
Wow!.It's like we're in a Hollywood dooms day movie.A strong cyclone in the Indian ocean flooding on the east coast and earthquakes in the mid-west and west.lol.
Quoting 1165. washingtonian115:
Wow!.It's like we're in a Hollywood dooms day movie.A strong cyclone in the Indian ocean flooding on the east coast and earthquakes in the mid-west and west.lol.


.... AND boring weather in the Leewards lol. Looks like something is never changing :-(
flooding in east haven,conn
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel · 2 min
BREAKING: Giant #hail just struck Hong Kong, shattering roof in a shopping centre: Link

Quoting 1167. hurricanes2018:
flooding in east haven,conn
Their is minor flooding here to.The puddles in my backyard have grown and Rock creek is dangerously high.

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 1h
Rainfall totals last 24 hours: Reagan Natl 1.19", Dulles 1.05", BWI 1.10". Another 0.5" or so poss today.
1170. Patrap
Quoting 1164. decaturgarden:


Has anyone come up with a reason for the swarm of earthquakes in Oklahoma?


Fracking, no doubt.
Big spike in water temperature increase at Gray Lakes... Link


Quoting 1170. Patrap:


Fracking, no doubt.


Is there alot of fracking in the areas of the earthquakes? I don't know where fracking is taking place in Oklahoma but it would be interesting to see if there is a correlation.
Quoting 1171. Luisport:
Big spike in water temperature increase at Gray Lakes...

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/y ellowstone_monitoring_47.html


I wonder if the elevation of the whole Yellowstone area is rising as well. I know there had been some increases a few years ago but I wonder if it has spiked with these larger earthquakes today.

Nice spin on radar.
My rain gauge in NE Baltimore City has 2.18" since yesterday around 9am.
Quoting 1173. decaturgarden:


I wonder if the elevation of the whole Yellowstone area is rising as well. I know there had been some increases a few years ago but I wonder if it has spiked with these larger earthquakes today.


Another 2.5 ENE of Yellowstone at 0956EDT
1177. Patrap
Well If you don't know, you ain't been looking seems.

Oklahoma earthquake spike likely linked to fracking boom
Published time: February 20, 2014 03:57 Get short URL


Central Oklahoma has seen a massive increase in earthquakes in recent years, leading geological scientists to link the uptick in quakes to oil and gas development in the way of hydraulic fracking.

From 1975 to 2008, the US Geological Survey found that central Oklahoma experienced one to three 3.0-magntitude earthquakes per year, The Nation reported. That number jumped to an average of 40 a year from 2009 to 2013.

The state has received 25 such quakes this year, and 150 total quakes just this week. Overall, the entire state of Oklahoma has experienced 500 earthquakes of any magnitude since Jan. 1.

Scientific data suggests the current fracking boom is a major part of the spike. Fracking is the highly controversial process of injecting water, sand, and various chemicals into layers of rock, in hopes of releasing oil and gas deep underground.

Fracking has long been associated with seismic activity, as researchers have shown connections between quakes and wastewater injection wells. The toxic wastewater is stored deep underground, causing friction along fault lines, scientists have found. For instance, researchers last year linked drill sites to a series of quakes in parts of Ohio.

The injection wells used for oil and gas development are the “most reasonable hypothesis” to explain the earthquake uptick in Oklahoma, Nicholas van der Elst, a post-doctorate research fellow at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, told The Nation.

“The burden of proof is on well operators to prove that the earthquakes are not caused by their wells,” van der Elst said.

One 2011 study, published in the journal Geology, linked liquid infusion with earthquakes in the state, including the largest ever recorded in Oklahoma. The state has over 4,400 disposal wells, StateImpact reported.

The Nation found that the seismic action associated with fracking wells are getting notice in state legislatures. Arkansas has banned wells in one 1,550-square mile area based on quakes there. Ohio has banned wells near fault lines, and a task force was assigned by the state of Kansas to assess links between quakes and fracking.

Vermont has banned fracking, despite negligible prospects for oil or gas production, and Massachusetts is seriously considering a ban.

Five Colorado cities have prohibited fracking, though they face legal challenges from the state – not the industry. And the city of Dallas passed late last year restrictions that prohibit fracking within 1,500 feet of a home, school, church, and other protected areas, effectively banning the practice within the city.

One town in rural Texas has taken to demanding that regulators act immediately to ban fracking in their area, as they allege that it is to blame for a spate of recent earthquakes.

Meanwhile, a recent report found that some of the most drought-ravaged areas of the US are also heavily targeted for oil and gas development using fracking, a practice which exacerbates water usage.

Half of the 97 billion gallons of water used since 2011 for fracking have gone to wells in Texas, a state in the midst of a severe, years-long drought. Meanwhile, oil and gas production through fracking is on track to double in the state over the next five years, the Guardian reported.

In California, 96 percent of new wells are located in areas where competition for water is high. A drought emergency for the entire state – which has traditionally dealt with water-sharing and access problems – was declared last month.


earthquakes fracking oklahoma

About 264,000 results (0.25 seconds)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONE TROPICALE INTENSE HELLEN (14-20132014)
16:00 PM RET March 30 2014
===============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Hellen (935 hPa) located at 14.7S 44.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, and up to 95 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 15.2S 45.0E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropicale Intense)
24 HRS 15.7S 45.0E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropicale Intense)
48 HRS 16.6S 43.8E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)
72 HRS 17.4S 41.9E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================

Hellen has continued to intensify during the last 6 hours with an impressive well defined 18 NM wide eye. The current estimation of the intensity is based on manual Dvorak estimates with a 3 hrs average at 6.7 in good agreement with the NESDIS ADT at 6.9 at 1200z. Raw DT is at 7.0 since 1100z and NESDIS ADT is at 6.9 at 1200z. On this basis the system should reach the very intense tropical cyclone stage within the next few hours. Hellen is likely to be one of the most powerful tropical cyclone ever seen over the northern channel since the satellite era.

The system is lying under an upper level ridge axis aloft. Vertical wind shear is weak (4.4 m/s according to CIMSS at 1200z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18S. Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward, Hellen will keep on tracking slowly southeastwards during the next 6 hours before being within a too slow steering environment that should lead to a quasi-stat motion. A weakening trend initiated by induced cold sea surface temperatures may taken place by that time. On the hand some numerical weather prediction models suggest a temporarily rising of the vertical wind shear tonight. The intensity forecast remains uncertain according to the small size of the system and its sensibility to the variation of the environmental conditions.

Sunday night, the mid-tropospheric near-equatorial ridge is expected to weaken. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down clearly. On and after Monday, Hellen should re-curve westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding southward. Hellen should keep on tracking on this west southwest path up to its landfall Wednesday night or Thursday on the Mozambican coastlines in the area of Quelimane. Given the favorable winds pattern seen on numerical weather prediction models at this lead time, the intensity forecast is significantly upgraded.

The track forecast has been adjusted southwards and lies between the ECMWF and GFS tracks. The inhabitants of the northwestern coasts of Madagascar embraced for an extremely dangerous tropical cyclone. All preparations for a "worst case" scenario should be underway as a landfall intense system is still clearly a possibility.

Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should still closely monitor the progress of this system.
I have 1.29" of rain.I expect it to rise to 1.38 by the time this is all outta here.We don't need anymore rain but it seems we'll get more Thurs-Friday.
Quoting 1177. Patrap:
Well If you don't know, you ain't been looking seems.

Oklahoma earthquake spike likely linked to fracking boom
Published time: February 20, 2014 03:57 Get short URL


Central Oklahoma has seen a massive increase in earthquakes in recent years, leading geological scientists to link the uptick in quakes to oil and gas development in the way of hydraulic fracking.

From 1975 to 2008, the US Geological Survey found that central Oklahoma experienced one to three 3.0-magntitude earthquakes per year, The Nation reported. That number jumped to an average of 40 a year from 2009 to 2013.

The state has received 25 such quakes this year, and 150 total quakes just this week. Overall, the entire state of Oklahoma has experienced 500 earthquakes of any magnitude since Jan. 1.

Scientific data suggests the current fracking boom is a major part of the spike. Fracking is the highly controversial process of injecting water, sand, and various chemicals into layers of rock, in hopes of releasing oil and gas deep underground.

Fracking has long been associated with seismic activity, as researchers have shown connections between quakes and wastewater injection wells. The toxic wastewater is stored deep underground, causing friction along fault lines, scientists have found. For instance, researchers last year linked drill sites to a series of quakes in parts of Ohio.

The injection wells used for oil and gas development are the “most reasonable hypothesis” to explain the earthquake uptick in Oklahoma, Nicholas van der Elst, a post-doctorate research fellow at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, told The Nation.

“The burden of proof is on well operators to prove that the earthquakes are not caused by their wells,” van der Elst said.

One 2011 study, published in the journal Geology, linked liquid infusion with earthquakes in the state, including the largest ever recorded in Oklahoma. The state has over 4,400 disposal wells, StateImpact reported.

The Nation found that the seismic action associated with fracking wells are getting notice in state legislatures. Arkansas has banned wells in one 1,550-square mile area based on quakes there. Ohio has banned wells near fault lines, and a task force was assigned by the state of Kansas to assess links between quakes and fracking.

Vermont has banned fracking, despite negligible prospects for oil or gas production, and Massachusetts is seriously considering a ban.

Five Colorado cities have prohibited fracking, though they face legal challenges from the state – not the industry. And the city of Dallas passed late last year restrictions that prohibit fracking within 1,500 feet of a home, school, church, and other protected areas, effectively banning the practice within the city.

One town in rural Texas has taken to demanding that regulators act immediately to ban fracking in their area, as they allege that it is to blame for a spate of recent earthquakes.

Meanwhile, a recent report found that some of the most drought-ravaged areas of the US are also heavily targeted for oil and gas development using fracking, a practice which exacerbates water usage.

Half of the 97 billion gallons of water used since 2011 for fracking have gone to wells in Texas, a state in the midst of a severe, years-long drought. Meanwhile, oil and gas production through fracking is on track to double in the state over the next five years, the Guardian reported.

In California, 96 percent of new wells are located in areas where competition for water is high. A drought emergency for the entire state – which has traditionally dealt with water-sharing and access problems – was declared last month.


earthquakes fracking oklahoma

About 264,000 results (0.25 seconds)


Thanks! I hadn't been looking at fracking locations but I can see the correlations with this article. Wonder what it would take to make those doing the fracking to note or accept the correlations?
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel · 1 min
BREAKING: Strongest #earthquake yet in ongoing Oklahoma swarm; M4.4 at 9:09am CDT near Crescent. Widely felt. More: http://wxch.nl/1h8EgXE

Quoting 1181. Patrap:


M4.4 - 20km NNW of Crescent, Oklahoma
2014-03-30 14:09:59 UTC


The quakes almost seem to be bouncing back and forth between the same two locations
1184. Patrap
We get it Luis, thanks.


Hows thing's over in GLP country?

1185. beell
Quoting 1170. Patrap:


Fracking, no doubt.


Certainly can't discount the role fracking may play in these swarms-in tandem with pre-existing features.



Major regional tectonic features that are apparently related to earthquake activity. Nemaha County is the locality where the Nemaha Ridge was discovered by drilling in the early 1900's (Kansas Geological Survey, 1989, Bulletin 226).

Some Kansas earthquakes are associated with the Nemaha Ridge, a buried granite mountain range that extends from roughly Omaha, Nebraska, to Oklahoma City (Fig. 8). This mountain range was formed about 300 million years ago, and the faults that bound it are still slightly active today, especially the Humboldt fault zone that forms the eastern boundary of the Nemaha Ridge, passing near Wamego, east of Manhattan, and near El Dorado, east of Wichita. About 50 miles (80 km) west of the Nemaha Ridge is the Midcontinent rift, a zone of the earth's continental crust that was ripped apart and filled with oceanic-type crust (basaltic rocks) about 1100 million years ago. This zone of rifting extended from central Kansas near Salina, northeast-ward across Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota and into the Lake Superior region. For unknown reasons the rifting stopped after only spreading about 30 to 50 miles (50-80 km); if it had not stopped, eastern and western Kansas would likely be on different continents today.

Kansas Geological Survey, Public Information Circular (PIC) 3
Quoting 1184. Patrap:
We get it Luis, thanks.


Hows thing's over in GLP country?

Very nice thank's!
Hellen is now at 130 knots, forecast to reach 140, which will make it the second Cat 5 of the year.
Morning again, everyone. Looking at the latest on Hellen, I observe 2 things. One is the tiny size of this storm, which is entirely capable of passing through the narrowest part of the N Mozambique channel without bringing storm force winds to anybody, despite its major storm status. The second is that the forecasting on this has been pretty good. They were expecting the RI; they warned [I think late on Fri] that the storm might get close to the Madagascar coast... I don't think they expected the 115 mph, though.

1190. Patrap
Had 3.1" rain when this last front pushed thru....Newberry, Fl west of Gainesville
Quoting 1190. Patrap:


Things that make you go hmmmmm......
Quoting 1147. LargoFl:
I wonder whats going on in california..every day several earthquakes,sometimes 3-4 of them..as a kid there were stories of california falling into the ocean after the big one hits..wonder iF that story is still going around today?


Yea, that story is still around.

I think that eventually Cali is supposed to break away from the US, but not anytime soon. Would make Death Valley the coastal beach.
Well, I hope Madagascar's ready for a close-shave.



1197. Patrap
Hellen



1198. Patrap
HELLEN Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting 1173. decaturgarden:


I wonder if the elevation of the whole Yellowstone area is rising as well. I know there had been some increases a few years ago but I wonder if it has spiked with these larger earthquakes today.
Erik posted 4 minutes ago

Erik Klemetti ‏@eruptionsblog · 4m
.@Irlandia Yellowstone is asleep. Likely this is fault motion, but I haven't seen a solution for movement. Cc @CPPGeophysics
1200. Patrap
2014MAR30 143000 7.2 893.2 +2.8 146.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 7.04 -79.75 EYE 15 IR 77.6 -14.95 -44.96

CI has Hellen at T7.0
1202. Patrap
Typhoon 21S

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2014 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 14:53:30 S Lon : 44:55:09 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 951.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.8 7.2


Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +9.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.0T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.3 degrees





Quoting 1202. Patrap:
Typhoon 21S

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2014 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 14:53:30 S Lon : 44:55:09 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 951.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.8 7.2


Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +9.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.0T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.3 degrees







that is a big difference from the ADT Reunion.. :O
Hellen is raising hell.Ahhh I've always wanted to say that :) (Back in 2012 I couldn't say that because it was only a 40mph storm in the Atlantic).
1205. wxmod
M4.4 - 20km NNW of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 14:09:59 UTC

The fracking quakes are getting bigger.
always has tripped me out that when you look at a topographic map of California how it looks like a giant swimming pool...
3.1
32km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana

2014-03-30 10:07:49 UTC-05:00

6.6 km
1208. wxmod
4.4 20km NNW of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 07:09:59 UTC-07:00 4.7 km
3.2 16km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 05:49:42 UTC-07:00 5.3 km
2.7 17km E of Hennessey, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 02:51:43 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
2.8 15km NNW of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 02:06:49 UTC-07:00 5.3 km
4.3 20km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 01:42:36 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.6 20km NNW of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 01:10:31 UTC-07:00 3.2 km
3.5 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 01:07:05 UTC-07:00 6.0 km
3.3 19km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-29 23:59:29 UTC-07:00 5.2 km
4.3 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-29 23:51:56 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.5 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-29 23:37:44 UTC-07:00 4.3 km
3.5 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-29 20:55:33 UTC-07:00 5.0 km

Last 24 hours of quakes in Oklahoma.
1209. nymore
Major Blizzard and Heavy Snow Possible Monday into Monday Night

A big storm is likely to impact the region Monday and Monday night. Low pressure will track from near Sioux Falls to just north of Minneapolis Monday into Monday night. Heavy snow will fall west of this low pressure system. Rain will change to snow in the far southern Red River valley and west central Minnesota Monday afternoon...while areas from Fargo to Bemidji and northward should see all snow from this event. Where the heaviest of the snow will be is still not certain, but most models are indicating the axis to be near a Jamestown-Hillsboro-Waskish line and about 50 miles either side. In this band, where it does end up occuring, most areas can expect 10-15 inches of snow with a bit lighter amounts south and north of this axis. The potential exists for snow amounts up to two feet or more as well. It will be very windy with northerly wind gusts in the Red River valley Monday afternoon and evening of 40-50 mph or possibly higher, leading to whiteout conditions. This will be a high impact storm, and has the potential for road closures and life threatening conditions if stranded. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts as we gain additional confidence with the expected impacts from this potential major winter storm.

Source NWS FGF

I think I may need a drink
1210. wxmod
3.1 32km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana 2014-03-30 08:07:49 UTC-07:00 6.6 km
2.5 33km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana 2014-03-30 06:56:40 UTC-07:00 7.7 km
3.1 34km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana 2014-03-30 06:30:52 UTC-07:00 4.5 km
4.8 37km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana 2014-03-30 05:34:39 UTC-07:00 6.8 km
3.0 35km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana 2014-03-30 03:36:25 UTC-07:00 1.6 km
2.8 36km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana 2014-03-29 23:23:48 UTC-07:00 1.5 km

Last 24 hours of quakes in Yellowstone.
Some of the models still show a snow storm next Sunday.I'm kinda shady about that.
1212. VR46L

Hellen

3.3
32km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana

2014-03-30 10:12:24 UTC-05:00

6.0 km
Quoting 1211. washingtonian115:
Some of the models still show a snow storm next Sunday.I'm kinda shady about that.
getting too late wash anything now will melt on contact or shortly theeafter
Quoting 1213. Luisport:
3.3
32km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana

2014-03-30 10:12:24 UTC-05:00

6.0 km
anything 6.5 or higher with additional activity following it may want to watch
biggest so far is 4.4 right
1217. Patrap
What makes you say 6.5 Keep ?

EQ Swarms are common in Yellowstone,


3.3
32km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana
2014-03-30 15:12:24 UTC6.0 km deep

3.1
32km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana
2014-03-30 15:07:49 UTC6.6 km deep
Quoting 1216. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
biggest so far is 4.4 right
M4.8
1220. Patrap
M4.8 - 37km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana
2014-03-30 12:34:39 UTC
Quoting 1217. Patrap:
What makes you say 6.5 Keep ?

EQ Swarms are common in Yellowstone,
could indicated movement of magma below coming up the biggest is 4.8 so far and weakening but if they go to 6.5 and increase plus a 6.5 could open up a fissure or crack the rock you could say
1222. Patrap
Quoting 1221. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
could indicated movement of magma below coming up the biggest is 4.4 so far and weakening but if they go to 6.5 and increase plus a 6.5 could open up a fissure or crack the rock you could say





Righttttttttttttttttttt.......

The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel · 4 min
More Yellowstone quakes: M3.1 at 9:07am MDT and M3.3 at 9:12am MDT (21 and 16 min ago). #earthquake

1224. LargoFl
7-day tampa bay area....................
Quoting 1222. Patrap:





Righttttttttttttttttttt.......

don't worry if any thing big happens we will know we will all know

its only 20,000 years overdue

1227. LargoFl
yes something is going on in yellowstone today........3 quakes...gotta watch that volcano...gee can you imagine
1228. Patrap
Quoting 1226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't worry if any thing big happens we will know we will all know

its only 20,000 years overdue



I never "worry" about things we have Zero control over.

I doubt the Super Caldera there is going to blow,

Usually that kinda event just goes BOOM.

Quoting 1227. LargoFl:
yes something is going on in yellowstone today........3 quakes...gotta watch that volcano...gee can you imagine


no largo its beyond imagination
Prototype early-warning system works again

Link
1231. LargoFl
Quoting 1229. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


no largo its beyond imagination
if it blew it would send up a plume that would block the sun for who knows how long...
1232. LargoFl
Yellowstone National Park is America's first national park. It was established in 1872. Yellowstone extends through Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho. The park's name is derived from the Yellowstone River, which runs through the park. It's unclear if the name first referred to the sulfurous yellow rocks below the falls of the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone River or to the sandstone bluffs that border its shores.

Within the massive park boundaries, you can find mountains, rivers, lakes, and some of the most concentrated geothermal activity in the world. The park has 60% of the world’s geysers as well as many hot springs and several mud pots. Perhaps the most famous feature of the park is the geyser Old Faithful.
1233. Patrap
Monitoring Earthquakes in Yellowstone

According to the University of Utah, which operates 26 seismograph stations throughout Yellowstone, this earthquake swarm was located about 10 miles northwest of Old Faithful, roughly half-way between Old Faithful and the town of West Yellowstone, Montana (see map here). University of Utah scientists report that of the 1,799 earthquakes recorded through 9:00 am MST on February 8, there were 14 events with a magnitude of more than 3, 136 events of magnitude 2.0 to 2.9, 1,113 events of magnitude 1.0 to 1.9, and 536 events of magnitude 0.0 to 0.9. The largest earthquake, a magnitude 3.8 event, occurred on January 20 at 11:16 pm MST. See chart showing when quakes occurred>>

Yellowstone earthquake activity is monitored around the clock by staff of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), a cooperative effort of the National Park Service, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the University of Utah. The YVO is one of five USGS observatories that monitor volcanoes within the United States for the purposes of science and public safety. The others are based in Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, and California.

According to University of Utah seismologists, earthquake swarms are relatively common in Yellowstone. The Park averages about 1,600 earthquakes a year, and 1,652 quakes were recorded in 2009. Yellowstone has experienced 80 earthquake swarms in the last 15 years.

This most recent swarm of earthquakes in Yellowstone prompted multiple personal reports of ground shaking from experiences inside the Park and -- for some of the larger events -- in neighboring communities in Montana and Idaho. According to YVO, the frequency of earthquakes has slowed since February 5 to fewer than ten small earthquakes per day, which is a normal level for Yellowstone.

Generally, earthquakes less than a magnitude 3.0 are not felt by people. It typically takes an earthquake of magnitude 4.0 or greater to cause structural damage, and a magnitude 6.5 earthquake to cause the surface of the ground to rupture.

- See more at: http://www.ypf.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id= 5343#sthash.o5FWyFwr.dpuf
America needs to try to stop twerking (Earthquake joke)
1235. LargoFl
1236. LargoFl
back in my memory banks i seem to remember alot of folks worrying about a plume coming out of mt st.helens volcano years ago..she is close if not in yellowstone..
Hellen topped T7.0 at 1230z and the number has been rising since then.

2014MAR30 153000 7.3 914.6 149.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 9.04 -79.12 EYE 15 IR 81.7 -14.98 -44.98 COMBO MET7 22.4
1238. LargoFl
gee if its not storms its earthquakes and volcano's lol..never stops huh.
M4.8 - 37km ENE of West Yellowstone, Montana
2014-03-30 12:34:39 UTC
1240. LargoFl
volcano alert page................Link
1241. Patrap
What Volcano ?

There are no active Volcano's that I know of in the US.

WS Xenia named.
Goodmorning Wunderfriends.

What are Greenhouse Gases?
Inside the Institute Posted by Michael Gillenwater

OK, I am going to be a little lazy this time. The two posts that will follow this one deal with issues related to greenhouse gas (GHG) Global Warming Potential (GWP) values and how we account for GHG emissions. As I was writing these later blog posts, I realized that maybe I should not assume everyone has a deep understanding of what we mean when we say “greenhouse gas.”

Back when I was in charge of developing and authoring the official U.S. Inventory of GHG emissions for the U.S. government, I wrote a section for that report on describing GHGs. To save me some hassle and ensure the background to my later blog posts is provided, I am crimping from the latest U.S. EPA national inventory report. The text is essentially unchanged since I wrote it several years ago, although the statistics have been updated.

[The following excerpt is taken, with some editing, from the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks.]

Although the Earth’s atmosphere consists mainly of oxygen and nitrogen, neither plays a significant role in enhancing the greenhouse effect because both are essentially transparent to terrestrial radiation. The greenhouse effect is primarily a function of the concentration of water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other trace gases in the atmosphere that absorb the terrestrial radiation leaving the surface of the Earth (IPCC 1996).

Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of these greenhouse gases can alter the balance of energy transfers between the atmosphere, space, land, and the oceans. A gauge of these changes is called radiative forcing, which is a simple measure of changes in the energy available to the Earth-atmosphere system (IPCC 1996). Holding everything else constant, increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will produce positive radiative forcing (i.e., a net increase in the absorption of energy by the Earth).

Climate change can be driven by changes in the atmospheric concentrations of a number of radiatively active gases and aerosols. We have clear evidence that human activities have affected concentrations, distributions and life cycles of these gases (IPCC 1996).

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3). Several classes of halogenated substances that contain fluorine, chlorine, or bromine are also greenhouse gases, but they are, for the most part, solely a product of industrial activities. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are halocarbons that contain chlorine, while halocarbons that contain bromine are referred to as bromofluorocarbons (i.e., halons). Because CFCs, HCFCs, and halons are stratospheric ozone depleting substances, they are covered under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The UNFCCC defers to this earlier international treaty; consequently these gases are not included in national greenhouse gas inventories. Some other fluorine containing halogenated substances—hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)—do not deplete stratospheric ozone but are potent greenhouse gases. These latter substances are addressed by the UNFCCC and accounted for in national greenhouse gas inventories.

There are also several gases that, although they do not have a commonly agreed upon direct radiative forcing effect, do influence the global radiation budget. These tropospheric gases—referred to as ambient air pollutants—include carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and tropospheric (ground level) ozone (O3). Tropospheric ozone is formed by two precursor pollutants, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the presence of ultraviolet light (sunlight). Aerosols—extremely small particles or liquid droplets—often composed of sulfur compounds, carbonaceous combustion products, crustal materials and other human induced pollutants—can affect the absorptive characteristics of the atmosphere. However, the level of scientific understanding of aerosols is still very low (IPCC 2001).

Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are continuously emitted to and removed from the atmosphere by natural processes on Earth. Anthropogenic activities, however, can cause additional quantities of these and other greenhouse gases to be emitted or sequestered, thereby changing their global average atmospheric concentrations. Natural activities such as respiration by plants or animals and seasonal cycles of plant growth and decay are examples of processes that only cycle carbon or nitrogen between the atmosphere and organic biomass. Such processes—except when directly or indirectly perturbed out of equilibrium by anthropogenic activities—generally do not alter average atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations over decadal timeframes. Climatic changes resulting from anthropogenic activities, however, could have positive or negative feedback effects on these natural systems.

Water Vapor (H2O). Overall, the most abundant and dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is water vapor. Water vapor is neither long-lived nor well mixed in the atmosphere, varying spatially from 0 to 2 percent (IPCC 1996). In addition, atmospheric water can exist in several physical states including gaseous, liquid, and solid. Human activities are not believed to affect directly the average global concentration of water vapor, but the radiative forcing produced by the increased concentrations of other greenhouse gases may indirectly affect the hydrologic cycle. While a warmer atmosphere has an increased water holding capacity, increased concentrations of water vapor affects the formation of clouds, which can both absorb and reflect solar and terrestrial radiation. Aircraft contrails, which consist of water vapor and other aircraft emittants, are similar to clouds in their radiative forcing effects (IPCC 1999).

Carbon Dioxide (CO2). In nature, carbon is cycled between various atmospheric, oceanic, land biotic, marine biotic, and mineral reservoirs. The largest fluxes occur between the atmosphere and terrestrial biota, and between the atmosphere and surface water of the oceans. In the atmosphere, carbon predominantly exists in its oxidized form as CO2. Atmospheric CO2 is part of this global carbon cycle, and therefore its fate is a complex function of geochemical and biological processes. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere increased from approximately 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in pre-industrial times to 379 ppmv in 2005, a 35 percent increase (IPCC 2007 and Hofmann 2004). The IPCC definitively states that “the present atmospheric CO2 increase is caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2” (IPCC 2001). The predominant source of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is the combustion of fossil fuels. Forest clearing, other biomass burning, and some non-energy production processes (e.g., cement production) also emit notable quantities of CO2.

In its second assessment, the IPCC also stated that “[t]he increased amount of CO2 [in the atmosphere] is leading to climate change and will produce, on average, a global warming of the earth’s surface because of its enhanced greenhouse effect—although the magnitude and significance of the effects are not fully resolved” (IPCC 1996).

Methane (CH4). CH4 is primarily produced through anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in biological systems. Agricultural processes such as wetland rice cultivation, enteric fermentation in animals, and the decomposition of animal wastes emit CH4, as does the decomposition of municipal solid wastes. CH4 is also emitted during the production and distribution of natural gas and petroleum, and is released as a byproduct of coal mining and incomplete fossil fuel combustion. Atmospheric concentrations of CH4 have increased by about 143 percent since 1750, from a pre-industrial value of about 722 ppb to 1,774 ppb in 2005, although the rate of increase has been declining. The IPCC has estimated that slightly more than half of the current CH4 flux to the atmosphere is anthropogenic, from human activities such as agriculture, fossil fuel use, and waste disposal (IPCC 2007).

CH4 is removed from the atmosphere through a reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH) and is ultimately converted to CO2. Minor removal processes also include reaction with chlorine in the marine boundary layer, a soil sink, and stratospheric reactions. Increasing emissions of CH4 reduce the concentration of OH, a feedback that may increase the atmospheric lifetime of CH4 (IPCC 2001).

Nitrous Oxide (N2O). Anthropogenic sources of N2O emissions include agricultural soils, especially production of nitrogen-fixing crops and forages, the use of synthetic and manure fertilizers, and manure deposition by livestock; fossil fuel combustion, especially from mobile combustion; adipic (nylon) and nitric acid production; wastewater treatment and waste combustion; and biomass burning. The atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 18 percent since 1750, from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005, a concentration that has not been exceeded during the last thousand years. N2O is primarily removed from the atmosphere by the photolytic action of sunlight in the stratosphere (IPCC 2007).

Ozone. Ozone is present in both the upper stratosphere, where it shields the Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation, and at lower concentrations in the troposphere, where it is the main component of anthropogenic photochemical “smog.” During the last two decades, emissions of anthropogenic chlorine and bromine-containing halocarbons, such as CFCs, have depleted stratospheric ozone concentrations. This loss of ozone in the stratosphere has resulted in negative radiative forcing, representing an indirect effect of anthropogenic emissions of chlorine and bromine compounds (IPCC 1996). The depletion of stratospheric ozone and its radiative forcing was expected to reach a maximum in about 2000 before starting to recover, with detection of such recovery not expected to occur much before 2010 (IPCC 2001).

The past increase in tropospheric ozone, which is also a greenhouse gas, is estimated to provide the third largest increase in direct radiative forcing since the pre-industrial era, behind CO2 and CH4. Tropospheric ozone is produced from complex chemical reactions of volatile organic compounds mixing with NOx in the presence of sunlight. The tropospheric concentrations of ozone and these other pollutants are short-lived and, therefore, spatially variable (IPCC 2001).

Halocarbons, Perfluorocarbons, and Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6). Halocarbons are, for the most part, man-made chemicals that have both direct and indirect radiative forcing effects. Halocarbons that contain chlorine (CFCs, HCFCs, methyl chloroform, and carbon tetrachloride) and bromine (halons, methyl bromide, and hydrobromofluorocarbons [HBFCs]) result in stratospheric ozone depletion and are therefore controlled under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Although CFCs and HCFCs include potent global warming gases, their net radiative forcing effect on the atmosphere is reduced because they cause stratospheric ozone depletion, which itself is an important greenhouse gas in addition to shielding the earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation. Ozone depleting gases are covered under the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments and are not covered by the UNFCCC.

HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 are not ozone depleting substances, and therefore are not covered under the Montreal Protocol. They are, however, powerful greenhouse gases. HFCs are primarily used as replacements for ozone depleting substances but also emitted as a byproduct of the HCFC-22 manufacturing process. Currently, they have a small aggregate radiative forcing impact, but it is anticipated that their contribution to overall radiative forcing will increase (IPCC 2001). PFCs and SF6 are predominantly emitted from various industrial processes including aluminum smelting, semiconductor manufacturing, electric power transmission and distribution, and magnesium casting. Currently, the radiative forcing impact of PFCs and SF6 is also small, but they have a significant growth rate, extremely long atmospheric lifetimes, and are strong absorbers of infrared radiation, and therefore have the potential to influence climate far into the future (IPCC 2001).

Carbon Monoxide (CO). Carbon monoxide has an indirect radiative forcing effect by elevating concentrations of CH4 and tropospheric ozone through chemical reactions with other atmospheric constituents (e.g., the hydroxyl radical, OH) that would otherwise assist in destroying CH4 and tropospheric ozone. Carbon monoxide is created when carbon-containing fuels are burned incompletely. Through natural processes in the atmosphere, it is eventually oxidized to CO2. Carbon monoxide concentrations are both short-lived in the atmosphere and spatially variable.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx). The primary climate change effects of nitrogen oxides (i.e., NO and NO2) are indirect and result from their role in promoting the formation of ozone in the troposphere and, to a lesser degree, lower stratosphere, where it has positive radiative forcing effects. Additionally, NOx emissions from aircraft are likely to decrease CH4 concentrations, thus having a negative radiative forcing effect (IPCC 1999). Nitrogen oxides are created from lightning, soil microbial activity, biomass burning (both natural and anthropogenic fires), fuel combustion, and, in the stratosphere, from the photo-degradation of N2O. Concentrations of NOx are both relatively short-lived in the atmosphere and spatially variable.

Nonmethane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs). Non-CH4 volatile organic compounds include substances such as propane, butane, and ethane. These compounds participate, along with NOx, in the formation of tropospheric ozone and other photochemical oxidants. NMVOCs are emitted primarily from transportation and industrial processes, as well as biomass burning and non-industrial consumption of organic solvents. Concentrations of NMVOCs tend to be both short-lived in the atmosphere and spatially variable.

Aerosols. Aerosols are extremely small particles or liquid droplets found in the atmosphere. They can be produced by natural events such as dust storms and volcanic activity, or by anthropogenic processes such as fuel combustion and biomass burning. Aerosols affect radiative forcing differently than greenhouse gases, and their radiative effects occur through direct and indirect mechanisms: directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation; and indirectly by increasing droplet counts that modify the formation, precipitation efficiency, and radiative properties of clouds. Aerosols are removed from the atmosphere relatively rapidly by precipitation. Because aerosols generally have short atmospheric lifetimes, and have concentrations and compositions that vary regionally, spatially, and temporally, their contributions to radiative forcing are difficult to quantify (IPCC 2001).

The indirect radiative forcing from aerosols is typically divided into two effects. The first effect involves decreased droplet size and increased droplet concentration resulting from an increase in airborne aerosols. The second effect involves an increase in the water content and lifetime of clouds due to the effect of reduced droplet size on precipitation efficiency (IPCC 2001). Recent research has placed a greater focus on the second indirect radiative forcing effect of aerosols.

Various categories of aerosols exist, including naturally produced aerosols such as soil dust, sea salt, biogenic aerosols, sulfates, and volcanic aerosols, and anthropogenically manufactured aerosols such as industrial dust and carbonaceous aerosols (e.g., black carbon, organic carbon) from transportation, coal combustion, cement production, waste incineration, and biomass burning.

The net effect of aerosols on radiative forcing is believed to be negative (i.e., net cooling effect on the climate), although because they remain in the atmosphere for only days to weeks, their concentrations respond rapidly to changes in emissions. Locally, the negative radiative forcing effects of aerosols can offset the positive forcing of greenhouse gases (IPCC 1996). “However, the aerosol effects do not cancel the global-scale effects of the much longer-lived greenhouse gases, and significant climate changes can still result” (IPCC 1996).

The IPCC’s Third Assessment Report notes that “the indirect radiative effect of aerosols is now understood to also encompass effects on ice and mixed-phase clouds, but the magnitude of any such indirect effect is not known, although it is likely to be positive” (IPCC
Quoting 1228. Patrap:


I never "worry" about things we have Zero control over.

I doubt the Super Caldera there is going to blow,

Usually that kinda event just goes BOOM.



that saying I have heard people say to me forever...
Earthquake swarms are nothing out of the ordinary for Yellowstone, I haven't heard any sign of significant swelling there either. An eruption is highly unlikely at this time, and we'll probably never see one in our lifetime. That being said, I do agree with KOTG -- if we suddenly see a massive quake there we should definitely take at least a mild interest in it.
1246. wxmod
The Yellowstone quakes are moving in a clockwise circle and are getting more frequent.
1247. LargoFl
Yes i was right..1980..................The May 18, 1980, event was the most deadly and economically destructive volcanic eruption in the history of the United States.[5] Fifty-seven people were killed and 200 houses, 27 bridges, 15 miles (24 km) of railways and 185 miles (298 km) of highway were destroyed. U.S. President Jimmy Carter surveyed the damage and said it looked more desolate than a moonscape.[26][27] A film crew was dropped by helicopter on St. Helens on May 23 to document the destruction. Their compasses, however, spun in circles and they quickly became lost.[28] A second eruption occurred the next day (see below), but the crew survived and were rescued two days after that. The eruption ejected more than 1 cubic mile (4.2 km3) of material.[29] A quarter of that volume was fresh lava in the form of ash, pumice and volcanic bombs while the rest was fragmented, older rock.[29] The removal of the north side of the mountain (13% of the cone's volume) reduced St. Helens' height by about 1,280 feet (390 m) and left a crater 1 to 2 miles (2 to 3 km) wide and 2,100 feet (640 m) deep with its north end open in a huge breach.[29]

More than 4,000,000,000 board feet (9,400,000 m3) of timber was damaged or destroyed, mainly by the lateral blast.[5] At least 25% of the destroyed timber was salvaged after September 1980. Downwind of the volcano, in areas of thick ash accumulation, many agricultural crops, such as wheat, apples, potatoes and alfalfa, were destroyed. As many as 1,500 elk and 5,000 deer were killed, and an estimated 12 million[5] Chinook and Coho salmon fingerlings died when their hatcheries were destroyed. Another estimated 40,000 young salmon were lost when they swam through turbine blades of hydroelectric generators when reservoir levels were lowered along the Lewis River to accommodate possible mudflows and flood waters.[5]

In all, Mount St. Helens released 24 megatons of thermal energy, 7 of which was a direct result of the blast. This is equivalent to 1,600 times the size of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.[30]
Quoting 1241. Patrap:
What Volcano ?

There are no active Volcano's that I know of in the US.


Kilauea... Mt. St. Helens I believe is considered active still even though it hasn't done much since 2008
Quoting 1241. Patrap:
What Volcano ?

There are no active Volcano's that I know of in the US.



silly rabbit...
1250. LargoFl
A super-volcano under Yellowstone National Park in California is an even bigger threat to the US than previously thought, scientists have found.

Researchers from the University of Utah said the volcano's magma chamber - a lake of molten rock beneath the National Park - is approximately 2.5 times bigger than earlier estimates suggested.

If the volcano were to erupt today, scientists predict that the resulting ash cloud would affect areas 1,000 miles away, leaving two thirds of the entire US uninhabitable.
Quoting 1247. LargoFl:
Yes i was right..1980..................The May 18, 1980, event was the most deadly and economically destructive volcanic eruption in the history of the United States.[5] Fifty-seven people were killed and 200 houses, 27 bridges, 15 miles (24 km) of railways and 185 miles (298 km) of highway were destroyed. U.S. President Jimmy Carter surveyed the damage and said it looked more desolate than a moonscape.[26][27] A film crew was dropped by helicopter on St. Helens on May 23 to document the destruction. Their compasses, however, spun in circles and they quickly became lost.[28] A second eruption occurred the next day (see below), but the crew survived and were rescued two days after that. The eruption ejected more than 1 cubic mile (4.2 km3) of material.[29] A quarter of that volume was fresh lava in the form of ash, pumice and volcanic bombs while the rest was fragmented, older rock.[29] The removal of the north side of the mountain (13% of the cone's volume) reduced St. Helens' height by about 1,280 feet (390 m) and left a crater 1 to 2 miles (2 to 3 km) wide and 2,100 feet (640 m) deep with its north end open in a huge breach.[29]

More than 4,000,000,000 board feet (9,400,000 m3) of timber was damaged or destroyed, mainly by the lateral blast.[5] At least 25% of the destroyed timber was salvaged after September 1980. Downwind of the volcano, in areas of thick ash accumulation, many agricultural crops, such as wheat, apples, potatoes and alfalfa, were destroyed. As many as 1,500 elk and 5,000 deer were killed, and an estimated 12 million[5] Chinook and Coho salmon fingerlings died when their hatcheries were destroyed. Another estimated 40,000 young salmon were lost when they swam through turbine blades of hydroelectric generators when reservoir levels were lowered along the Lewis River to accommodate possible mudflows and flood waters.[5]

In all, Mount St. Helens released 24 megatons of thermal energy, 7 of which was a direct result of the blast. This is equivalent to 1,600 times the size of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.[30]
You might find this one interesting too, Largo.

Pompeii
1253. Patrap
Really keep, stealing a image and posting it?

At least give the link for it as well.

Lordy.


www.seis.utah.edu

Earthquake Information Center
YMR - 03/30/2014





1254. LargoFl
active volcano's in the USA..............
Quoting 1253. Patrap:
Really keep, stealing a image and posting it?



I went here actually pat I don't do that

Link


here first

Link
1256. LargoFl
Quoting 1251. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You might find this one interesting too, Largo.

Pompeii
thanks GT..they sure are destructive
1257. Patrap
Hellen RainBow Top Image

1258. Patrap
Quoting 1255. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I went here actually pat I don't do that

Link


here first

Link


Yeah, right, maybe take a gander at #1225
1259. LargoFl
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
5 minutes ago
Magnitude: 2.7
DateTime: 2014-03-30 11:05:00
Region: Greater Los Angeles area, California
Depth: 0.4
Source: USGS Feed
..........pedly must be rocking and rolling over there..every day now..2-3-4 quakes..
1260. beell
Fracking Wastewater Disposal Linked to Remotely Triggered Quakes/nationalgeographic.com-July 2013

...detailed in this week's issue of the journal Science, is the latest research to show how humans can influence earthquakes. The study found that industrial wastewater disposal made certain areas more prone to seismic activity in the wake of a larger event, linking quakes near wastewater injection sites in the United States to those as far away as Japan and Chile...

...researchers analyzed a catalog of past earthquake recordings in the United States. They focused on earthquakes that occurred shortly after three large quakes: an 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Chile on Feb. 27, 2010, the 9.1-magnitude event off the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, and an 8.6-magnitude quake in Sumatra, Indonesia on April 12, 2012.

...We saw that three areas in particular have an increase in seismicity in the days following these big events," Savage explained. "These areas were in Texas, Colorado, and Oklahoma...

...One thing the affected areas in the three states all had in common was that they were located near sites where wastewater injection had been ongoing for decades...


The Hockey Stick

Manmade Earthquakes Update/usgs.gov-January, 2014





...In the latest issue of the journal Science, researchers from Columbia University propose that an increase in underground wastewater disposal at natural-gas and oil extraction sites, particularly in the southern and western U.S., has been accompanied by an increase in earthquakes that are triggered by distant seismic events...

....Columbia University seismologist Nicholas van der Elst and his colleagues studied a set of injection wells near Prague, Oklahoma, among other sites. By monitoring changes in rock stress and sensitivity as small seismic waves from remote large earthquakes passed by, they concluded that sites with decades of injection history are more likely to succumb to quakes...

NOTE (9.12.13): Van der Elst has clarified, saying that it is not that the larger quakes abroad caused the smaller quakes at injection sites, rather the larger quakes sent smaller ripples that the researchers detected and took as a warning sign that these areas, near injection well sites, were under stress and vulnerable to quakes. He says the larger Oklahoma earthquake and the Chilean disaster were not related and that the Oklahoma quake would have happened regardless. It is also worth noting that none of the study sites in this most recent report were receiving wastewater from fracking operations. (But previous studies have looked at such sites.) “It has implications for fracking,” Elst said. “If you dispose of fracking fluids on the timescale we studied [about a decade], you’d have to take that into account.”



Fracking Sites May Be More Vulnerable To Earthquakes/blogs.discovermagazine.com-July, 2013

2014 Significant Earthquake Archive/usgs.gov
Quoting 1258. Patrap:


Yeah, right, maybe take a gander at #1225


ok if ya say so

1262. Dakster
Quoting 1250. LargoFl:
A super-volcano under Yellowstone National Park in California is an even bigger threat to the US than previously thought, scientists have found.

Researchers from the University of Utah said the volcano's magma chamber - a lake of molten rock beneath the National Park - is approximately 2.5 times bigger than earlier estimates suggested.

If the volcano were to erupt today, scientists predict that the resulting ash cloud would affect areas 1,000 miles away, leaving two thirds of the entire US uninhabitable.


yes and it erupts every 600,000 years and it has almost been 700,000 since the last eruption, leading to a SWAG that the next time it could be that big and could happen at any time.

Luckily, no evidence exists that it is getting ready to blow.

I don't worry about it, since I can't control it. I worry more about us humans blowing ourselves to bits all on our own, without a natural disaster.
1263. Patrap


So you just posted that Graph outta nowhere, with NO Link, no key, and it jus happens to be the one I posted.

Rightttttttttttttttttttt.

Have a nice day.



Artist's impression of a major impact event. The collision between a planet and an asteroid a few kilometers in diameter may release as much energy as several million nuclear weapons detonating simultaneously.

Impact events appear to have played a significant role in the evolution of the Solar System since its formation. Major impact events have significantly shaped Earth's history, have been implicated in the formation of the Earth–Moon system, the evolutionary history of life, the origin of water on Earth and several mass extinctions. Notable impact events include the Late Heavy Bombardment, which occurred early in history of the Earth–Moon system and the Chicxulub impact, 66 million years ago, believed to be the cause of the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event.

Impact event
Quoting 1245. CybrTeddy:
Earthquake swarms are nothing out of the ordinary for Yellowstone, I haven't heard any sign of significant swelling there either. An eruption is highly unlikely at this time, and we'll probably never see one in our lifetime. That being said, I do agree with KOTG -- if we suddenly see a massive quake there we should definitely take at least a mild interest in it.
Agree. It's typical for Yellowstone once in awhile. I think there was a study released not long ago that the ground would have rise significantly in Yellowstone before erupting so we would have a warning days in advance.
1266. Dakster
Quoting 1259. LargoFl:
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
5 minutes ago
Magnitude: 2.7
DateTime: 2014-03-30 11:05:00
Region: Greater Los Angeles area, California
Depth: 0.4
Source: USGS Feed
..........pedly must be rocking and rolling over there..every day now..2-3-4 quakes..


Pedley is about to get Ocean Front property.
1268. LargoFl

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN
MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON...
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN
AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN
BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...
WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN
UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...
PUTNAM...ROCKLAND AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING...AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP. A HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY
REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT.


* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 1/2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH. MANY SMALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NEAR BANK FULL OR JUST OVER. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD THREAT ALONG SMALL
RIVERS...STREAMS...AS WELL AS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME
LARGER RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE FLOODING FROM
PROLONGED RUNOFF.
Just talked to my relatives in Los Angeles. They said they have only felt 3-4 quakes since the 5.1. They said most of the others are while they are sleeping and it doesn't wake them up or they just do not feel the small ones because they are used to them
NASA's new spacesuit:



NASA is letting you decide what the next Z-2 spacesuit will actually look like. Option one is called "Biomimicry." It's great for making bold declarations.



"Biomimicry" is also perfect for window shopping.



The second design is called "Technology." I like it because the lights look as though they want to give you a hug. And I could use a hug. Things are weird at home.



The third design is called "Trends in Society." It's the best spacesuit to wear when you want to take an Instagram of your food.



This is the original Z-series spacesuit. The Z-1 was great for picking up rocks.

Link
Dulles reporting light snow now pic.twitter.com/9jFSZdslVI

@islivingston
1272. LargoFl
GT here's one for ya about climate change...............Link
HWRF and GFS ran has Helen making landfall on Madagascar.





DVORAK Vort. Max has it going up to 160 knots and RAW T #s up to 8.



A distinct circular eye.

Quoting 1271. Doppler22:
Dulles reporting light snow now pic.twitter.com/9jFSZdslVI

@islivingston
Temps are dropping around the area
Winter Storm Xenia
Good Afternoon. Here is one of the global seismic monitor sites and you just point your cursor over the bulls-eye for any given quake to get the time, location, and magnitude. The entire Pacific Rim (including California and down to Chile/Peru area) has been "active" for the past several weeks but that is the norm every day around the rim; multiple 1-4 mag quakes as the plates shift and adjust on a daily/weekly basis. The real big ones don't give a lot of warning (plate shifting ones) but multiple after-shocks.

Alternatively, the volcanic ones (like Yellowstone) near rifts and fault lines with potential lava flows are a slightly different animal. Most are subject to constant monitoring and scientists can usually give us several weeks or days warning if something is afoot or activity or pressures rise. They would clear out people from Yellowstone or another such volcanic site if their monitors picked up any unusual activity.


Link
Quoting 1274. washingtonian115:
Temps are dropping around the area

There was a little lightning symbol near me! Why did I not here it?!?! :'( :'( And yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah. I am done with snow for this Winter.
Hellen will become C5!!!!
1279. sar2401
Quoting beell:
Fracking Wastewater Disposal Linked to Remotely Triggered Quakes/nationalgeographic.com-July 2013

...detailed in this week's issue of the journal Science, is the latest research to show how humans can influence earthquakes. The study found that industrial wastewater disposal made certain areas more prone to seismic activity in the wake of a larger event, linking quakes near wastewater injection sites in the United States to those as far away as Japan and Chile...

...researchers analyzed a catalog of past earthquake recordings in the United States. They focused on earthquakes that occurred shortly after three large quakes: an 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Chile on Feb. 27, 2010, the 9.1-magnitude event off the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, and an 8.6-magnitude quake in Sumatra, Indonesia on April 12, 2012.

...We saw that three areas in particular have an increase in seismicity in the days following these big events," Savage explained. "These areas were in Texas, Colorado, and Oklahoma...

...One thing the affected areas in the three states all had in common was that they were located near sites where wastewater injection had been ongoing for decades...


The Hockey Stick

Manmade Earthquakes Update/usgs.gov-January, 2014





...In the latest issue of the journal Science, researchers from Columbia University propose that an increase in underground wastewater disposal at natural-gas and oil extraction sites, particularly in the southern and western U.S., has been accompanied by an increase in earthquakes that are triggered by distant seismic events...

....Columbia University seismologist Nicholas van der Elst and his colleagues studied a set of injection wells near Prague, Oklahoma, among other sites. By monitoring changes in rock stress and sensitivity as small seismic waves from remote large earthquakes passed by, they concluded that sites with decades of injection history are more likely to succumb to quakes...

NOTE (9.12.13): Van der Elst has clarified, saying that it is not that the larger quakes abroad caused the smaller quakes at injection sites, rather the larger quakes sent smaller ripples that the researchers detected and took as a warning sign that these areas, near injection well sites, were under stress and vulnerable to quakes. He says the larger Oklahoma earthquake and the Chilean disaster were not related and that the Oklahoma quake would have happened regardless. It is also worth noting that none of the study sites in this most recent report were receiving wastewater from fracking operations. (But previous studies have looked at such sites.) “It has implications for fracking,” Elst said. “If you dispose of fracking fluids on the timescale we studied [about a decade], you’d have to take that into account.”



Fracking Sites May Be More Vulnerable To Earthquakes/blogs.discovermagazine.com-July, 2013

2014 Significant Earthquake Archive/usgs.gov

They never looked at the Geysers Geothermal Project in California? Wastewater injection has been going on there for decades and has caused thousands of small quakes. The real question is if this practice can cause large quakes. I didn't see any evidence of this.
Quoting 1278. Haiyan2013:
Hellen will become C5!!!!
no way!!
Here are the stats for the US for the last few days; typical if you ask me:

30-MAR-2014 14:09:59 36.13 -97.65 4.4 5 OKLAHOMA 4558132
30-MAR-2014 12:34:42 44.77 -110.66 4.8 5 YELLOWSTONE REGION, WYOMING 4558126
30-MAR-2014 08:42:36 36.17 -97.59 4.3 4 OKLAHOMA 4558115
30-MAR-2014 06:51:56 36.16 -97.55 4.3 5 OKLAHOMA 4558108
29-MAR-2014 21:32:46 33.96 -117.89 4.1 9 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 4558076
29-MAR-2014 04:09:41 33.93 -117.92 5.3 2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 4558017
28-MAR-2014 11:39:10 58.52 -142.75 4.1 12 GULF OF ALASKA 4547042
Quoting 1278. Haiyan2013:
Hellen will become C5!!!!

Yep, forecast to reach 140 knots

1283. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
NASA's new spacesuit:



NASA is letting you decide what the next Z-2 spacesuit will actually look like. Option one is called "Biomimicry." It's great for making bold declarations.



"Biomimicry" is also perfect for window shopping.



The second design is called "Technology." I like it because the lights look as though they want to give you a hug. And I could use a hug. Things are weird at home.



The third design is called "Trends in Society." It's the best spacesuit to wear when you want to take an Instagram of your food.



This is the original Z-series spacesuit. The Z-1 was great for picking up rocks.

Link

Why do I constantly hear that NASA just doesn't have a large enough budget? I'm pretty sure we can save some money by immediately firing everyone who came up with this idea.
I see a wet flake or two..
And here are the current stats on the Yellowstone event today:

Date/Time March 30, 2014, 12:34 p.m.
Location Yellowstone Region, Wyoming
Magnitude M 4.8
Latitude 44.7727° N
Longitude 110.6598° W
Depth 5.0 km
1286. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
5 minutes ago
Magnitude: 2.7
DateTime: 2014-03-30 11:05:00
Region: Greater Los Angeles area, California
Depth: 0.4
Source: USGS Feed
..........pedly must be rocking and rolling over there..every day now..2-3-4 quakes..

Hardly anyone will feel a 2.7. These are all pretty normal aftershocks from a 5.1. There will be hundreds of them and they will go on for months. This happens after any earthquake of about 4.0 and over.
1287. wxmod
Quoting 1279. sar2401:

Wastewater injection has been going on there for decades and has caused thousands of small quakes. The real question is if this practice can cause large quakes. I didn't see any evidence of this.



The earthquakes in Okalahoma, totally flat country with no pre fracking earthquake history, are getting bigger. Is that because they are using nuclear explosives now to crack the bedrock, or is the earth's crust beginning to cave in?
Quoting 1281. weathermanwannabe:
Here are the stats for the US for the last few days; typical if you ask me:

30-MAR-2014 14:09:59 36.13 -97.65 4.4 5 OKLAHOMA 4558132
30-MAR-2014 12:34:42 44.77 -110.66 4.8 5 YELLOWSTONE REGION, WYOMING 4558126
30-MAR-2014 08:42:36 36.17 -97.59 4.3 4 OKLAHOMA 4558115
30-MAR-2014 06:51:56 36.16 -97.55 4.3 5 OKLAHOMA 4558108
29-MAR-2014 21:32:46 33.96 -117.89 4.1 9 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 4558076
29-MAR-2014 04:09:41 33.93 -117.92 5.3 2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 4558017
28-MAR-2014 11:39:10 58.52 -142.75 4.1 12 GULF OF ALASKA 4547042


I used to live just outside of Oklahoma City back in the late 70s and 80s. I never felt an earthquake when I lived there. I also don't remember earthquakes even being a topic for the area back in middle and high school there.
Tornadoes - yes
Earthquakes - no

Did Oklahoma have this many earthquakes back in the 1970s and 1980s?
1289. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:

Bad news for Madagascar. They do get typhoons but never one the size of this one. I'm hoping it weakens before landfall. Dr. Masters wrote a blog about Madagasgar's particularly bad cyclone season in 2007.
1290. Gearsts
Not good.
Quoting 1288. Sfloridacat5:


I used to live just outside of Oklahoma City back in the late 70s and 80s. I never felt an earthquake when I lived there. I also don't remember earthquakes even being a topic for the area back in middle and high school there.
Tornadoes - yes
Earthquakes - no

Did Oklahoma have this many earthquakes back in the 1970s and 1980s?


Have no idea; I will only note the 4-5 kilometers down is pretty deep inside the earth. The instruments can capture this data/depth and the magnitude but it makes sense that one (on the surface) might just feel a small tremor/rumble (or sleep through it).
Quoting 1283. sar2401:

Why do I constantly hear that NASA just doesn't have a large enough budget? I'm pretty sure we can save some money by immediately firing everyone who came up with this idea.


I'm struggling to figure out what you consider 'wasteful' about this idea? Because it's colorful?
Quoting 1282. ZacWeatherKidUK:

Yep, forecast to reach 140 knots



should be already at 140 knots. If CI is at 7.0 according to ADT Reunion notes.
1294. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I used to live just outside of Oklahoma City back in the late 70s and 80s. I never felt an earthquake when I lived there. I also don't remember earthquakes even being a topic for the area back in middle and high school there.
Tornadoes - yes
Earthquakes - no

Did Oklahoma have this many earthquakes back in the 1970s and 1980s?

No. There has been a large increase in earthquakes since 2004 and it's statistically unlikely the cause is natural. I'm reasonably certain fracking is the cause. There's an animation here that illustrates the large increase in earthquakes in Oklahoma.
Quoting 1241. Patrap:
What Volcano ?

There are no active Volcano's that I know of in the US.



Continental US ? :)
1296. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm struggling to figure out what you consider 'wasteful' about this idea? Because it's colorful?

You are? Is there some good reason why NASA should run a contest to allow the public to vote on space suit designs? Unless this is being done by volunteers at no cost to NASA, you seriously have no clue why this might be wasteful?
1297. sar2401
Quoting indianrivguy:


Continental US ? :)

Mt. St. Helens is one that come to mind.
Quoting 1294. sar2401:

No. There has been a large increase in earthquakes since 2004 and it's statistically unlikely the cause is natural. I'm reasonably certain fracking is the cause. There's an animation here that illustrates the large increase in earthquakes in Oklahoma.


turn into one giant sink hole by the time there done with it
Quoting 1294. sar2401:

No. There has been a large increase in earthquakes since 2004 and it's statistically unlikely the cause is natural. I'm reasonably certain fracking is the cause. There's an animation here that illustrates the large increase in earthquakes in Oklahoma.


Pretty interesting

Thanks
Quoting 1290. Gearsts:
Not good.



Give it a few weeks and that will be going up like a rock


Don't for get we re only at the vary early stages of el Nino we still got a long way two go
1301. auburn


Kitchen, Linda G.
61, of Scottsdale, Arizona passed away on March 22, 2014. Linda embraced life in a way few could, and family members all considered it normal behavior until collaborating for this obituary. As one-half of the infamous "Twister Sisters", she spent some of her most exciting times chasing tornadoes, giving interviews to the weather channel, and her passion for storms provided great contributions to the study of severe weather. She was the only woman that could manage her makeup applications seated in a sink. She was the Steve Irwin of bed bug hunting. She experienced the thrill of not just swimming with dolphins, but communicating with them too. She enjoyed skydiving well into her later years, and trick-riding her quarter-horses in her earlier ones. She was perhaps the greatest second-hand shopper in the state that would unknowingly purchase her own donated clothes back from shops. She was the Mom who would wait up until 3:00am to ensure her middle-aged kids would all arrive home safely from evenings out. She would keep a box of Kleenex nearby while watching the Westminster Kennel Show. Linda enjoyed traveling, old movies, animals, winning at the casino, genealogy, singing in the car, rainy days, chocolate, and happy hour. She was adventurous, kind, smart, passionate, funny, and generous.
Quoting 1290. Gearsts:
Not good.
I hate when people never explain.May someone be kind enough to explain what this means.Thanks!.
1303. auburn
Might be old news..but I just heard about her passing..
1304. sar2401
Quoting wxmod:



The earthquakes in Okalahoma, totally flat country with no pre fracking earthquake history, are getting bigger. Is that because they are using nuclear explosives now to crack the bedrock, or is the earth's crust beginning to cave in?

Did you see any evidence fracking has caused large and damaging earthquakes? Pretty simple question. Fracking absolutely causes earthquakes. That's not the issue. Is it a reasonable risk to extract more oil, gas, or geothermal energy out of the ground or not? Come up with an evidence based answer and then we'll know what to do.
1305. wxmod
http://www.news9.com/story/25109911/37-magnitude-te mblor-recorded-near-okc

"The 4.4 was the recorded at 8:09 a.m. 12 miles northwest of Crescent, and at a depth of over two miles.

Several residents contacted News 9 to report the shaking. No major damage or injuries have been reported at this time.

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 2.5 to 3.0 are generally the smallest ones felt by humans. Damage is more likely from quakes at a 4.0 magnitude and higher."

1306. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


turn into one giant sink hole by the time there done with it

Assuming earthquakes caused giant sinkholes, you'd be right. :-)
1307. sar2401
Quoting wxmod:
http://www.news9.com/story/25109911/37-magnitude- te mblor-recorded-near-okc

"The 4.4 was the recorded at 8:09 a.m. 12 miles northwest of Crescent, and at a depth of over two miles.

Several residents contacted News 9 to report the shaking. No major damage or injuries have been reported at this time.

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 2.5 to 3.0 are generally the smallest ones felt by humans. Damage is more likely from quakes at a 4.0 magnitude and higher."


All of which means what, other than people can feel earthquakes if they are large enough.
1308. wxmod
Quoting 1304. sar2401:

Did you see any evidence fracking has caused large and damaging earthquakes? Pretty simple question. Fracking absolutely causes earthquakes. That's not the issue. Is it a reasonable risk to extract more oil, gas, or geothermal energy out of the ground or not? Come up with an evidence based answer and then we'll know what to do.



Fracking has been going on for a couple of years. There's not much history for either of us to draw on. If Marshal, Oklahoma sinks into a big sink hole, we will then have some evidence, won't we?
Quoting 1296. sar2401:

You are? Is there some good reason why NASA should run a contest to allow the public to vote on space suit designs? Unless this is being done by volunteers at no cost to NASA, you seriously have no clue why this might be wasteful?


It's being done at no cost to NASA.
1310. sar2401
Quoting auburn:
Might be old news..but I just heard about her passing..

I hadn't heard about it either, Auburn. She seems like she was a quite a person, and died much too young. RIP.
I'm glad I'm not the only one seeing sleet and a wet flake or two as others are reporting it.A classic wintry mix.We just expected rain.
1312. sar2401
Quoting wxmod:



Fracking has been going on for a couple of years. There's not much history for either of us to draw on. If Marshal, Oklahoma sinks into a big sink hole, we will then have some evidence, won't we?

Look up the Geysers Geothermal project in California. Fracking has been going on since the the 70's, and has been causing earthquakes since then. We have lots of evidence there, but it won't go along with your theory.
1313. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's being done at no cost to NASA.

Do you have a link for that?
1314. Dakster
I vote for the more flexible suit. Put whatever color scheme and luminescent paint/material on it you want. Get a fashion designer for that.

More a function over fashion type person for that application.

At one point more people will need then and will need to be able to do things in them. Even, gasp, perhaps put them on and take them off by themselves.
There was a pretty big earthquake about 2 years ago (centered around Virginia I think), that rumbled parts of the ground around DC (the National Monument suffered some damage) and it was "felt" in places from Georgia all the way to the NE. My Wife and I were driving North on I-85 towards Pennsylvania and our daughter called us from Conn to advise that they felt it up there. We were driving on "rubber" in Virginia, never felt a thing, then turned on the radio to hear coverage on NPR.

The funny thing is (and we never heard any news of it being felt in Florida) that my Mother-In-Law, who was staying at the house in Tallahassee during that trip, called us a few minutes after our daughter to advise that a large "dead" tree/limb in the back yard toppled over and almost hit the house. Weather was beautiful and no wind in Tally at the time but I wonder years later whether that quake had anything to do with that tree coming down even though there were no local reports of any such events in North Florida; the timing was rather weird.
1316. wxmod
Quoting 1312. sar2401:

Look up the Geysers Geothermal project in California. Fracking has been going on since the the 70's, and has been causing earthquakes since then. We have lots of evidence there, but it won't go along with your theory.



The geysers is not a gas well. It is also on a mountain top, away from populations. I'm betting that the farm residents of Marshal, OK are not happy about the risks of fracking that you think are acceptable.
Quoting 1313. sar2401:

Do you have a link for that?


No, just common knowledge of how web design works.

You don't need millions of dollars to open up a poll on NASA.gov.
1318. hydrus
Quoting 1302. washingtonian115:
I hate when people never explain.May someone be kind enough to explain what this means.Thanks!.

Bad for any tropical cyclones that try to form in the MDR. With below average MDR sst's there is less heat potential for storms to work with, along with this, when the subtropics are above average they tend to suppress the majority of activity in the deep tropics. A good example of this was 2012.
Below average MDR SST's paired with El Nino conditions is bad news for storm activity in the Atlantic, that is if the below average SST's in the MDR remain like this throughout the hurricane season.
Quoting 1319. TylerStanfield:

Bad for any tropical cyclones that try to form in the MDR. With below average MDR sst's there is less heat potential for storms to work with, along with this, when the subtropics are above average they tend to suppress the majority of activity in the deep tropics. A good example of this was 2012.
Below average MDR SST's paired with El Nino conditions is bad news for storm activity in the Atlantic, that is if the below average SST's in the MDR remain like this throughout the hurricane season.

In other words, AWESOME for SE coastal property owners!
Quoting 1302. washingtonian115:
I hate when people never explain.May someone be kind enough to explain what this means.Thanks!.


It means that sea surface temperatures in the main development region for tropical storms in the Atlantic (excluding the region between 10 degrees north and south of the equator) are about 0.4C below the long term average for the time of year.
1322. Gearsts
Quoting 1302. washingtonian115:
I hate when people never explain.May someone be kind enough to explain what this means.Thanks!.
SST difference compared to the global tropics.
1323. beell
@sar
One may have to consider watewater injection wells that have been in operation for decades as one cause of the earthquake swarms. Not to be confused with the more recent practice of fracking.

There is probably not a large difference in both processes. WRT to earthquakes-a much longer time-scale.
While the eastern Atlantic appears poised to be less active this year, the western Atlantic appears to be preparing to carry most of the weight this season.


1325. Dakster
Tyler - Isn't it a little early to be considering how hot the water is?

We have had years with hot water, but high shear or hot water and high dust/dry air...

If we have low shear, dust, and as long as the ocean isn't too cold you could have a more active season.
Quoting 1325. Dakster:
Tyler - Isn't it a little early to be considering how hot the water is?

We have had years with hot water, but high shear or hot water and high dust/dry air...

If we have low shear, dust, and as long as the ocean isn't too cold you could have a more active season.

Yes. I'm just showing the difference between the temperatures in the western Atlantic and the eastern Atlantic.
Of coarse if the atmosphere isn't willing to cooperate, then the SST's will not matter.
1327. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, just common knowledge of how web design works.

You don't need millions of dollars to open up a poll on NASA.gov.

Ah,...common knowledge that project planning, staffing, designing web pages, hiring models, taking photos and videos, running the contest, compiling the votes, and announcing the votes all cost no money. Spending this money will advance our ability to travel into space....how? NASA says their budgets are stretched to the limit. Any amount of money spent spent on an inane project like this is too much.
1328. Dakster
Quoting 1326. TylerStanfield:

Yes. I'm just showing the difference between the temperatures in the western Atlantic and the eastern Atlantic.
Of coarse if the atmosphere isn't willing to cooperate, then the SST's will not matter.


Sounds good... We shall see what happens. According to Levi's analysis a month ago, it seems like we could see some more home grown systems than long track Cape Verdes this year.
Quoting 1326. TylerStanfield:

Yes. I'm just showing the difference between the temperatures in the western Atlantic and the eastern Atlantic.
Of coarse if the atmosphere isn't willing to cooperate, then the SST's will not matter.


We learn a lot about that last year. We had several Low pressure systems that sat in 90 degree GOM water temps and did basically nothing because of wind shear and too much dry air.
Quoting 1328. Dakster:


Sounds good... We shall see what happens. According to Levi's analysis a month ago, it seems like we could see some more home grown systems than long track Cape Verdes this year.

Yeah. The hot spot for activity will likely be in the region of the western Subtropics. This area will likely see more storms, but it doesn't necessarily mean we won't see a few storms in the deep tropics when or if the conditions become favorable.
At this point in time though, it looks like there is many different factors that are working against the Atlantic this season. Which is why my current forecast is
10-3-1, as of my February forecast.
I will look into reassessing those number later in May as they may be a tad too low.
1331. sar2401
Quoting beell:
@sar
One may have to consider watewater injection wells that have been in operation for decades as one cause of the earthquake swarms. Not to be confused with the more recent practice of fracking.

There is probably not a large difference in both processes. WRT to earthquakes-a much longer time-scale.

There's essentially no difference between wastewater injection for hydrothermal power and what's commonly called fracking. They both cause hydraulic fracturing, it's only what comes out of the ground that's different. They Geysers project is our longest term fracking project but you're right, even that is a blink of the eye in geological time. The Geysers project is in a much more seismically active area than Oklahoma and has not caused a large quake. I'm still looking for an answer if the risks of fracking exceed the benefits. If they do, it should be stopped. If they don't it should be continued. All I see are scientists on both sides taking opposite sides. I have no idea what the right answer is.
1332. Patrap
Seasonal Forecast mean NOTHING, they are useless for anything more than Ego.


They can't tell me when, nor where..period.

I never predict anything.

To look at the MDR in March, isn't a tell as to anything come June 1.


Quoting 1329. Sfloridacat5:


We learn a lot about that last year. We had several Low pressure systems that sat in 90 degree GOM water temps and did basically nothing because of wind shear and too much dry air.


REMNANTS OF KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF
KAREN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. AS A
RESULT...KAREN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AT AROUND 11 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT UNTIL THEY ARE OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT IN A DAY OR SO.

THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REMNANT CENTER...AND REGENERATON IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO EVEN
HIGHER VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

1334. Patrap
I'm still looking for an answer if the risks of fracking exceed the benefits. If they do, it should be stopped.

Look for yerself, this is not a Drive thru window SAR.

Your tell is easy, you support the Driller's over the environment every time in these discussions.

Is Fracking Safe? The Top 10 Controversial Claims About Natural Gas Drilling


Members of Congress, gas companies, news organization, drilling opponents: They've all made bold claims about hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and the U.S. supply of underground natural gas. We take on 10 controversial quotes about natural gas and set the record straight.


Claim No. 3

"NATURAL GAS IS CLEANER, CHEAPER, DOMESTIC, AND IT'S VIABLE NOW."



Burning natural gas is cleaner than oil or gasoline, and it emits half as much carbon dioxide, less than one-third the nitrogen oxides, and 1 percent as much sulfur oxides as coal combustion. But not all shale gas makes it to the fuel tank or power plant. The methane that escapes during the drilling process, and later as the fuel is shipped via pipelines, is a significant greenhouse gas. At least one scientist, Robert Howarth at Cornell University, has calculated that methane losses could be as high as 8 percent.

Industry officials concede that they could be losing anywhere between 1 and 3 percent. Some of those leaks can be prevented by aggressively sealing condensers, pipelines and wellheads. But there's another upstream factor to consider: Drilling is an energy-intensive business.

It relies on diesel engines and generators running around the clock to power rigs, and heavy trucks making hundreds of trips to drill sites before a well is completed. Those in the industry say there's a solution at hand to lower emissions—using natural gas itself to power the process. So far, however, few companies have done that.
Quoting 1274. washingtonian115:
Temps are dropping around the area


After a warm bust yesterday with morning temps 10F warmer than forecast, cooling in the middle of the day, then warming again at evening, the cold air came in overnight and today has verified chilly as expected. But it's a little chillier than expected and I've also seen ice pellets and a few soft flakes mixed in with the rain, enough to stay on surfaces (like my Black Labs' backs) and be noticed.
This isn't weather related, but the breaking news today is that skeletons unearthed in London reveal that the Black Death wasn't spread by rat fleas, but instead the virus was airborne.
1337. Patrap
List of 78 Chemicals Used in Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid in Pennsylvania

Chemicals Used in the Hydraulic Fracturing Process in Pennsylvania

Prepared by the Department of Environmental Protection
Bureau of Oil and Gas Management

Compiled from Material Safety Data Sheets (MSDS) obtained from Industry

Updated June 10, 2010

Chemical Product Name
2,2-Dibromo-3-Nitrilopropionamide Bio Clear 1000/Bio Clear 2000/ Bio-Clear 200/BioRid20L/ EC6116A
2-methyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one X-Cide 207
5-chloro-2-methyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one X-Cide 207
Acetic Acid Fe-1A Acidizing Composition/ Packer Inhibitor
Acetic Anhydride Fe-1A Acidizing Composition
Acetylene GT&S Inc./ Airco
Alcohol Ethoxylated C12-16 NE-200
Alkyl benzene sulfonic acid Tetrolite AW0007/ FR-46
Ammonia (aqueous) FAW-5
Ammonium Bifluoride ABF 37%
Ammonium Persulfate AP Break
Ammonium Bisulfite Techni-Hib 604/ Fe OXCLEAR/ Packer Inhibitor
Ammonium chloride Salt Inhibitor
Ammonium Salt (alkylpolyether sulfate) Tetrolite AW0007
Amorphous silica TerraProp Plus/ Bituminous Coal Fly Ash ASTM C618
Benzoic Acid Benzoic Acid
Boric Acid BC-140/ Unilink 8.5
Boric Oxide XLW-32
Calcium Chloride Dowflake
Calcium Oxide Bituminous Coal Fly Ash ASTM C618
carboxymethylhydroxypropyl guar blend Unigel CMPHG
Choline Chloride Clay Treat-2C
Cinnamaldehyde ENVIROHIB 2001
Citric Acid Ferrotrol 300L/ IC-100L
Complex polyamine salt Clay Master-5C
Crystalline Silica: Cristobalite
Crystalline Silica: Quartz Silica Sand/ / Atlas PRC/ Best Sand/ Bituminous Coal Fly Ash ASTM C618
Cupric chloride dihydrate Ferrotrol 280L
Cured resin LiteProp 125
Cyclohexanes CS-2
Dazomet ICI-3240
Diethylene Glycol Scaletrol 720/ Scaletrol 7208
d-Limonene
MA-844W
Enzyme GBL-8X
EO-C7-9-iso-, C8 rich-alcohols NE-940/ NE-90
EO-C9-11-iso-, C10-rich alcohols NE-940/ NE-90
Ethoxylated Alcohol FRW-14/ SAS-2/ Flomax 50/ WFR-3B
Ethyl Acetate Castle Thrust
Ethyl Alcohol FAW-5/ Castle Shop Solv/ Dallas Morris
Ethylbenzene NDL-100/ PARANOX/ Uniflo II
Ethylbenzene NDL-100/ PARANOX/ Uniflo II
Ethylene Glycol ENVIROHIB 2001/ ICA-2/ LEB 10X/ Scaletrol
720/ Sceletrol 7208/ CC 300/ Clachek A/ Clachek
LP/ Ironsta II B/ NCL-100/ BC 140/ NCL-100/
Flomax 50/ NCL/ Scalehib 100/ Unihib O/ Unilink 8.5
Formic Acid ENVIROHIB 2001
Gluconic Acid Interstate ICA-2
Glutaraldehyde Alpha 114/Alpha 125/ ICI-150
Glycerol Bio Sealers
Glycol Ethers ENVIROHIB 2001/AMPHOAM 75/ PARANOX/ Uniflo II/ Unifoam/ WNE-342LN
Guar Gum PROGUM 19 GUAR PRODUCT/ Unigel 19XL/ Benchmark Polymer 3400/ WGA-15/ Unigel 5F
Hydrochloric Acid Hydrochloric Acid (HCL)/ TETRAClean 542/ Muriatic Acid
Hydrochloric Acid 3% %u2013 35% Hydrochloric Acid 3% %u2013 35%
Isopropanol AFS 30 Blend/ FAC-1W/ FAC-3W/ MA-844W/ NE-23/ NE-940/ Flomax 50/ Tetrolite AW0007/
FMW25 Foamer/ CS-2
Isopropyl Alcohol NFS-102/ WFT-9511/ LT-32/ AR-1/ Flomax 50/ NDL-100/ Unibac/ Uniflo II/ Uniflo/ Unihib O/
WNE-342LN
Methanol
AFS 30 Blend/ NE-200/ Activator Superset-W/ CI-14/ FAW-5/ GasFlo/ Inflo-250W/ LT-32/ NE-940/
XLW-32/ Tetrolite AW0007/ FMW25 Foamer/ 40 HTL Corrosion Inhibitor/ NE 100/ HAI-OS Acid
Inhibitor/ Unibac/ NE-90/ Packer Inhibitor
Methyl Alcohol Clearbreak 400/ Super Surf/ Castle Shop Solv
Methyl Salicylate Bio Sealers
n-butanol AirFoam 311
Nitrilotriacetamide Salt Inhibitor
Phenolic Resin Atlas PRC
Polyethylene Glycol NE-940/ EC6116A/ NE-90
Polyethylene Glycol Mixture Bio Clear 2000/ Bio-Clear 200
Polyoxylalkylene sulfate FMW25 Foamer
Polysaccharide Blend GW-3LDF
Potassium Carbonate BF-7L
Potassium Chloride Dowflake
Potassium Hydroxide B-9, pH Increase Buffer/ BXL-2
Propargyl Alcohol CI-14/ HAI-OS Acid Inhibitor
Propylene Glycol SAS-2/ WFR-3B
Silica S-8C, Sand, 100 mesh/ Montmorillnonite clay
Sodium Bicarbonate K-34
Sodium Bromide BioRid 20L
Sodium Hydroxide Caustic Soda/ ICI-3240/ BioRid B-71
Sodium Persulphate High Perm SW-LB
Sodium Xylene Sulfonate FAC-2/ FAC-3W
Sulfuric Acid Sulfuric Acid
Surfactants AFS-30/ GasFlo/ Inflo-250W
Talc Adomite Aqua
Tetrakis(hydroxymethyl)phosphonium sulfate Magnacide 575 Microbiocide
Tetramethyl ammonium Chloride Clay Treat-3C
Trimethyloctadecylammonium chloride FAC-1W/ FAC-3W
Quoting 1327. sar2401:

Ah,...common knowledge that project planning, staffing, designing web pages, hiring models, taking photos and videos, running the contest, compiling the votes, and announcing the votes all cost no money. Spending this money will advance our ability to travel into space....how? NASA says their budgets are stretched to the limit. Any amount of money spent spent on an inane project like this is too much.


That's why one has a web design team with a given salary. They also have to work within an annual budget given to them. It's just simple HTML code, to be honest.

I'll say this, you're not wrong about NASA's spending habits. The problem with NASA isn't the fact it doesn't get enough money, the problem is that bad management hounds NASA like a plague. One can see this in the horribly mismanaged James-Webb Space Telescope and the former Constellation program. If we want a viable space program again via gov't, NASA needs to be reorganized completely. SpaceX proves this time and time again.

A simple poll with a few graphics though isn't one of these bad habits, just a public outreach program. Ever check out SpaceX's website? Don't tell me that didn't take a similar level of effort and money and their budget is significantly less.

If you're going to target NASA for spending issues, we have to target the real issues.

But this is probably a topic better suited for my blog. I feel the eyes of the mods already staring at me. :P
Quoting 1336. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This isn't weather related, but the breaking news today is that skeletons unearthed in London reveal that the Black Death wasn't spread by rat fleas, but instead the virus was airborne.


Bubonic Plague can spread either way. The pneumonic form spread through droplets from infected people's lungs, has been known for many years and is considered the primary means of rapid spread in densely populated areas.

1340. sar2401
Quoting wxmod:



The geysers is not a gas well. It is also on a mountain top, away from populations. I'm betting that the farm residents of Marshal, OK are not happy about the risks of fracking that you think are acceptable.

Look up wastewater injection. The methods used to extract geothermal steam and natural gas are not much different. The Geysers is located about 25 miles from Clearlake, CA, population about 15,000. The Marshall OK zipcode area has a population of about 1,000. At least try to look these things up.

I don't know what the acceptable risks are and never said I did. Regardless, this is a matter for science and not if people living nearby are "happy". We need more scientific investigation to determine if fracking is or isn't too risky in terms of damaging earthquakes or pollution. If it is, it should be stopped.
1341. Patrap
NASA is to fly the Unmanned Orion first test flight in September.

Two Boosters Complete For Orion’s First Flight Test
By Space Coast Daily // February 27, 2014


This animation depicts the proposed test flight of the Orion spacecraft in 2014. During the test, which is called Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Orion will launch from Cape Canaveral, Fla., perform two orbits, reaching an altitude higher than any achieved by a spacecraft intended for human use since 1973, and then will re-enter and land in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of the United States. Narration by Jay Estes, Deputy for flight test integration in the Orion program.

1342. wxmod
The next Pacific storm headed for the US has hazardous Chinese pollution wrapped up in it.


1343. Dakster
Quoting 1336. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This isn't weather related, but the breaking news today is that skeletons unearthed in London reveal that the Black Death wasn't spread by rat fleas, but instead the virus was airborne.


That's not a good thing.
1344. Patrap
Quoting 1339. georgevandenberghe:


Bubonic Plague can spread either way. The pneumonic form spread through droplets from infected people's lungs, has been known for many years and is considered the primary means of rapid spread in densely populated areas.



Excellent re-tort

This March,

In like a lion, out like a herd of crazed Polar Bears!



... Blizzard watch now in effect from Monday evening through
Tuesday morning...

* timing... rain is expected to transition to freezing rain and
sleet for a few hours Monday afternoon before changing over to
snow by early Monday evening and persisting through late Monday
night. Falling snow combined with strong and gusty northerly
winds may result in blizzard conditions Monday night.

* Winds/visibility... northerly winds are expected to increase to
25 to 35 mph with higher gusts by Monday afternoon. Whiteout
conditions may be possible by early Monday evening when wind
combines with falling snow.

* Snow/ice accumulations... prior to the onset of snow... a light
accumulation of ice... generally a tenth of an inch or less... is
possible. Snow accumulations will be very dependent on how
quickly rain transitions to snow. 2 to 6 inches of snowfall
with locally higher amounts is possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A blizzard watch means there is a potential for blowing and
falling snow... that in combination with strong winds could create
extremely poor visibilities. This can lead to whiteout conditions
and make travel very dangerous.


1346. sar2401
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Bubonic Plague can spread either way. The pneumonic form spread through droplets from infected people's lungs, has been known for many years and is considered the primary means of rapid spread in densely populated areas.


In addition, this is a report from one researcher that will need peer review before we know if his conclusions are correct. Other excavations have found evidence that the plague was bubonic (caused by bites from various fleas) and bubonic plague is almost never pneumonic. It will be interesting to see what the conclusions of the peer review show.
1347. Dakster
Quoting 1341. Patrap:
NASA is to fly the Unmanned Orion first test flight in September.

Two Boosters Complete For Orion’s First Flight Test
By Space Coast Daily // February 27, 2014


This animation depicts the proposed test flight of the Orion spacecraft in 2014. During the test, which is called Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Orion will launch from Cape Canaveral, Fla., perform two orbits, reaching an altitude higher than any achieved by a spacecraft intended for human use since 1973, and then will re-enter and land in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of the United States. Narration by Jay Estes, Deputy for flight test integration in the Orion program.



Looks like an e-ticket ride if I ever saw one, Patrap.
1348. wxmod
Quoting 1340. sar2401:

Look up wastewater injection. The methods used to extract geothermal steam and natural gas are not much different. The Geysers is located about 25 miles from Clearlake, CA, population about 15,000. The Marshall OK zipcode area has a population of about 1,000. At least try to look these things up.

I don't know what the acceptable risks are and never said I did. Regardless, this is a matter for science and not if people living nearby are "happy". We need more scientific investigation to determine if fracking is or isn't too risky in terms of damaging earthquakes or pollution. If it is, it should be stopped.



I highly recommend that you buy a house in Marshal, OK. Or have they all been abandoned?
April is going to kick off on a good note here.

Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

77! And with some A/C to boot! Mother Nature must be in a good mood.
1350. sar2401
Quoting Qazulight:

This March,

In like a lion, out like a herd of crazed Polar Bears!



... Blizzard watch now in effect from Monday evening through
Tuesday morning...

Where is this at? Sunny and 67 in SE Alabama, so more like a lamb down here. :-)
1351. wxmod
Quoting 1337. Patrap:
List of 78 Chemicals Used in Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid in Pennsylvania

Chemicals Used in the Hydraulic Fracturing Process in Pennsylvania

Prepared by the Department of Environmental Protection
Bureau of Oil and Gas Management

Compiled from Material Safety Data Sheets (MSDS) obtained from Industry

Updated June 10, 2010

Chemical Product Name
2,2-Dibromo-3-Nitrilopropionamide Bio Clear 1000/Bio Clear 2000/ Bio-Clear 200/BioRid20L/ EC6116A
2-methyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one X-Cide 207
5-chloro-2-methyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one X-Cide 207
Acetic Acid Fe-1A Acidizing Composition/ Packer Inhibitor
Acetic Anhydride Fe-1A Acidizing Composition
Acetylene GT&S Inc./ Airco
Alcohol Ethoxylated C12-16 NE-200
Alkyl benzene sulfonic acid Tetrolite AW0007/ FR-46
Ammonia (aqueous) FAW-5
Ammonium Bifluoride ABF 37%
Ammonium Persulfate AP Break
Ammonium Bisulfite Techni-Hib 604/ Fe OXCLEAR/ Packer Inhibitor
Ammonium chloride Salt Inhibitor
Ammonium Salt (alkylpolyether sulfate) Tetrolite AW0007
Amorphous silica TerraProp Plus/ Bituminous Coal Fly Ash ASTM C618
Benzoic Acid Benzoic Acid
Boric Acid BC-140/ Unilink 8.5
Boric Oxide XLW-32
Calcium Chloride Dowflake
Calcium Oxide Bituminous Coal Fly Ash ASTM C618
carboxymethylhydroxypropyl guar blend Unigel CMPHG
Choline Chloride Clay Treat-2C
Cinnamaldehyde ENVIROHIB 2001
Citric Acid Ferrotrol 300L/ IC-100L
Complex polyamine salt Clay Master-5C
Crystalline Silica: Cristobalite
Crystalline Silica: Quartz Silica Sand/ / Atlas PRC/ Best Sand/ Bituminous Coal Fly Ash ASTM C618
Cupric chloride dihydrate Ferrotrol 280L
Cured resin LiteProp 125
Cyclohexanes CS-2
Dazomet ICI-3240
Diethylene Glycol Scaletrol 720/ Scaletrol 7208
d-Limonene
MA-844W
Enzyme GBL-8X
EO-C7-9-iso-, C8 rich-alcohols NE-940/ NE-90
EO-C9-11-iso-, C10-rich alcohols NE-940/ NE-90
Ethoxylated Alcohol FRW-14/ SAS-2/ Flomax 50/ WFR-3B
Ethyl Acetate Castle Thrust
Ethyl Alcohol FAW-5/ Castle Shop Solv/ Dallas Morris
Ethylbenzene NDL-100/ PARANOX/ Uniflo II
Ethylbenzene NDL-100/ PARANOX/ Uniflo II
Ethylene Glycol ENVIROHIB 2001/ ICA-2/ LEB 10X/ Scaletrol
720/ Sceletrol 7208/ CC 300/ Clachek A/ Clachek
LP/ Ironsta II B/ NCL-100/ BC 140/ NCL-100/
Flomax 50/ NCL/ Scalehib 100/ Unihib O/ Unilink 8.5
Formic Acid ENVIROHIB 2001
Gluconic Acid Interstate ICA-2
Glutaraldehyde Alpha 114/Alpha 125/ ICI-150
Glycerol Bio Sealers
Glycol Ethers ENVIROHIB 2001/AMPHOAM 75/ PARANOX/ Uniflo II/ Unifoam/ WNE-342LN
Guar Gum PROGUM 19 GUAR PRODUCT/ Unigel 19XL/ Benchmark Polymer 3400/ WGA-15/ Unigel 5F
Hydrochloric Acid Hydrochloric Acid (HCL)/ TETRAClean 542/ Muriatic Acid
Hydrochloric Acid 3% %u2013 35% Hydrochloric Acid 3% %u2013 35%
Isopropanol AFS 30 Blend/ FAC-1W/ FAC-3W/ MA-844W/ NE-23/ NE-940/ Flomax 50/ Tetrolite AW0007/
FMW25 Foamer/ CS-2
Isopropyl Alcohol NFS-102/ WFT-9511/ LT-32/ AR-1/ Flomax 50/ NDL-100/ Unibac/ Uniflo II/ Uniflo/ Unihib O/
WNE-342LN
Methanol
AFS 30 Blend/ NE-200/ Activator Superset-W/ CI-14/ FAW-5/ GasFlo/ Inflo-250W/ LT-32/ NE-940/
XLW-32/ Tetrolite AW0007/ FMW25 Foamer/ 40 HTL Corrosion Inhibitor/ NE 100/ HAI-OS Acid
Inhibitor/ Unibac/ NE-90/ Packer Inhibitor
Methyl Alcohol Clearbreak 400/ Super Surf/ Castle Shop Solv
Methyl Salicylate Bio Sealers
n-butanol AirFoam 311
Nitrilotriacetamide Salt Inhibitor
Phenolic Resin Atlas PRC
Polyethylene Glycol NE-940/ EC6116A/ NE-90
Polyethylene Glycol Mixture Bio Clear 2000/ Bio-Clear 200
Polyoxylalkylene sulfate FMW25 Foamer
Polysaccharide Blend GW-3LDF
Potassium Carbonate BF-7L
Potassium Chloride Dowflake
Potassium Hydroxide B-9, pH Increase Buffer/ BXL-2
Propargyl Alcohol CI-14/ HAI-OS Acid Inhibitor
Propylene Glycol SAS-2/ WFR-3B
Silica S-8C, Sand, 100 mesh/ Montmorillnonite clay
Sodium Bicarbonate K-34
Sodium Bromide BioRid 20L
Sodium Hydroxide Caustic Soda/ ICI-3240/ BioRid B-71
Sodium Persulphate High Perm SW-LB
Sodium Xylene Sulfonate FAC-2/ FAC-3W
Sulfuric Acid Sulfuric Acid
Surfactants AFS-30/ GasFlo/ Inflo-250W
Talc Adomite Aqua
Tetrakis(hydroxymethyl)phosphonium sulfate Magnacide 575 Microbiocide
Tetramethyl ammonium Chloride Clay Treat-3C
Trimethyloctadecylammonium chloride FAC-1W/ FAC-3W



Does wonders for groundwater too!
1352. sar2401
Quoting wxmod:



I highly recommend that you buy a house in Marshal, OK. Or have they all been abandoned?

I highly recommend you stick to scientific arguments and save the polemics for other web pages you visit.
Quoting 1344. Patrap:


Excellent re-tort


Quoting 1339. georgevandenberghe:


Bubonic Plague can spread either way. The pneumonic form spread through droplets from infected people's lungs, has been known for many years and is considered the primary means of rapid spread in densely populated areas.



I wonder if when the plague was spreading if the weather was cold and dry. I have seen an explanation of the flue spearing in winter vice summer. It wasn't about humans being closer together, rather it was hang time. In the winter, with cold dry air, the droplets from a sneeze or cough hang in the air longer that when the air is warm and moist.

I don't know this for a fact, just remember it somewhere.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 1350. sar2401:

Where is this at? Sunny and 67 in SE Alabama, so more like a lamb down here. :-)


Fargo and central North Dakota. It is beautiful right now. 50 + light wind partly cloudy! but tonight about 10 everything is supposed to break loose. Also, the models are not in agreement, we could get ice, or we could get piles of snow.

Cheers
Qazulight
1355. wxmod
Quoting 1350. sar2401:

Sunny and 67 in SE Alabama, so more like a lamb down here. :-)



I don't see any fracking quakes in your area.
Yes, yes, yes!

1357. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's why one has a web design team with a given salary. They also have to work within an annual budget given to them. It's just simple HTML code, to be honest.

I'll say this, you're not wrong about NASA's spending habits. The problem with NASA isn't the fact it doesn't get enough money, the problem is that bad management hounds NASA like a plague. One can see this in the horribly mismanaged James-Webb Space Telescope and the former Constellation program. If we want a viable space program again via gov't, NASA needs to be reorganized completely. SpaceX proves this time and time again.

A simple poll with a few graphics though isn't one of these bad habits, just a public outreach program. Ever check out SpaceX's website? Don't tell me that didn't take a similar level of effort and money and their budget is significantly less.

If you're going to target NASA for spending issues, we have to target the real issues.

But this is probably a topic better suited for my blog. I feel the eyes of the mods already staring at me. :P

LOL. I'll end this with this type of thing is merely a symptom of much deeper mismanagement problems at NASA. There have been calls for NASA to be reorganized since the Challenger disaster. Some agencies just get out of control over time and need a complete remake.
1358. sar2401
Quoting Qazulight:


Fargo and central North Dakota. It is beautiful right now. 50 + light wind partly cloudy! but tonight about 10 everything is supposed to break loose. Also, the models are not in agreement, we could get ice, or we could get piles of snow.

Cheers
Qazulight

Oh, I forgot about you and North Dakota. I hope your drive to work isn't as awful as it sounds like it must be. North Dakota is one of those places where meteorological spring doesn't mean much. :-)
1359. sar2401
Quoting wxmod:



I don't see any fracking quakes in your area.

Not yet. I don't plan on selling my house just yet though.
1360. LargoFl
are you ready for another one?..April 7th..gee.......
Quoting 1358. sar2401:

Oh, I forgot about you and North Dakota. I hope your drive to work isn't as awful as it sounds like it must be. North Dakota is one of those places where meteorological spring doesn't mean much. :-)


Oh, it does mean a lot. I drove a few hundred miles yesterday, all on dry pavement. Until the middle of March many of the roads still had ice or snow on them. Now the snow is just in patches under trees and such.

I did see people still parked out on the lakes doing ice fishing, but the snow was gone so no snow mobiles. Maybe they sledders will get one more ride before they put the toys away.

Cheers
Qazulight
1362. wxmod
This is a list of ALL the earthquakes magnitude 3 and above between 1975 and 2000 in Okalahoma.


3.0 Oklahoma 1999-10-25 16:19:58 UTC-07:00 26.1 km
3.5 Oklahoma 1998-10-30 10:41:22 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.2 Oklahoma 1998-07-07 11:44:44 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.9 Oklahoma 1998-04-28 07:13:01 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
4.5 Oklahoma 1997-09-06 16:38:00 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
4.1 Oklahoma 1995-09-14 17:31:33 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.0 Oklahoma 1995-05-31 21:49:29 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.0 Oklahoma 1995-04-04 22:31:16 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
4.2 Oklahoma 1995-01-18 08:51:39 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.0 Oklahoma 1994-04-28 20:28:58 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.1 Oklahoma 1993-01-14 10:06:10 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.6 Oklahoma 1992-12-17 00:18:04 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.0 Oklahoma 1991-01-23 22:00:26 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.9 Oklahoma 1990-11-15 04:44:41 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.1 Oklahoma 1989-07-19 23:07:50 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.7 Oklahoma 1987-12-07 18:42:40 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.1 Oklahoma 1987-01-24 09:08:17 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.2 Oklahoma 1984-02-02 21:38:27 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.0 Oklahoma 1982-05-03 00:54:50 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.5 Oklahoma 1981-07-11 14:09:22 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.0 Oklahoma 1980-11-02 03:00:49 UTC-07:00 8.0 km
3.4 Oklahoma 1979-09-12 17:49:19 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.0 Oklahoma 1979-06-07 00:39:35 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.5 Oklahoma 1976-04-18 21:42:42 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.4 Oklahoma 1976-04-16 11:59:44 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.5 Oklahoma 1975-11-29 07:29:40 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.2 Oklahoma 1975-10-11 19:58:11 UTC-07:00 20.0 km
3.4 Oklahoma 1975-09-12 18:25:02 UTC-07:00 5.0 km

Orion did a suborbital test launch four years ago on Aries 1-X. The Aries/Constellation program is cancelled but Orion (the capsule portion) wasn't. It's part of the Space Launch System (SLS) now. Basically they plan on launching it on a Delta4 Heavy.
Quoting 1358. sar2401:

Oh, I forgot about you and North Dakota. I hope your drive to work isn't as awful as it sounds like it must be. North Dakota is one of those places where meteorological spring doesn't mean much. :-)


Oh, I will log in and work from home if the roads are as bad as they say.

Qazulight
1365. Patrap
Quoting 1363. Skyepony:
Orion did a suborbital test launch four years ago on Aries 1-X. The Aries/Constellation program is cancelled but Orion (the capsule portion) wasn't. It's part of the Space Launch System (SLS) now. Basically they plan on launching it on a Delta4 Heavy.


The EFT-1 Test flight is on a Delta 4 Heavy, but the Operational SLS is a New Design.




The huge rocket that NASA is building to blast astronauts toward Mars, asteroids and other destinations in deep space has passed a critical design milestone, agency officials announced today (Aug. 1).

Engineers wrapped up the preliminary design review for NASA's Space Launch System rocket on Wednesday (July 31), giving the heavy lifter's design, production and ground support plans a stamp of approval.

"In two short years from the first announcement of the Space Launch System, we are at a milestone that validates the detailed design and integration of the system," Dan Dumbacher, deputy associate administrator for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate, said in a statement. "You can feel the momentum of the workforce as we produce test hardware today. We are creating a national capability, and we will get this country, and the world, exploring deep space."
1366. sar2401
Quoting Qazulight:




I wonder if when the plague was spreading if the weather was cold and dry. I have seen an explanation of the flue spearing in winter vice summer. It wasn't about humans being closer together, rather it was hang time. In the winter, with cold dry air, the droplets from a sneeze or cough hang in the air longer that when the air is warm and moist.

I don't know this for a fact, just remember it somewhere.

Cheers
Qazulight

There has been some research into this but no firm conclusions. An interesting finding is that colds and flus occur throughout the year in equatorial countries but have definite peaks in the winter in temperate countries. The cold and dry air is one explanation in some place like North Dakota, but how does it explain similar peaks in places like Miami? I don't think people spend more time huddled together there in winter than any other place, and there sure isn't a lot of cold dry air. There's a lot we don't know about even the "common" cold yet. While we worry about volcanoes, earthquakes, and asteroids, it a lot more likely some bug we don't even know about yet will be the end of us.
1367. wxmod
Here's all the 3 and above Oklahoma earthquakes for the last month:

4.5 20km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 07:09:59 UTC-07:00 3.8 km
3.2 16km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 05:49:42 UTC-07:00 5.3 km
4.3 20km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 01:42:36 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.6 20km NNW of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 01:10:31 UTC-07:00 3.2 km
3.5 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-30 01:07:05 UTC-07:00 6.0 km
3.3 19km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-29 23:59:29 UTC-07:00 5.2 km
4.3 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-29 23:51:56 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.5 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-29 23:37:44 UTC-07:00 4.3 km
3.5 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-29 20:55:33 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.7 4km E of Choctaw, Oklahoma 2014-03-29 20:08:31 UTC-07:00 6.1 km
3.2 9km NE of Stillwater, Oklahoma 2014-03-28 16:16:24 UTC-07:00 4.9 km
3.1 20km N of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-28 10:56:11 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.5 5km SW of Langston, Oklahoma 2014-03-27 13:05:16 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.4 12km NW of Edmond, Oklahoma 2014-03-25 07:01:19 UTC-07:00 6.1 km
3.3 11km ENE of Medford, Oklahoma 2014-03-22 12:42:11 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.0 19km SSE of Medford, Oklahoma 2014-03-22 12:15:54 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
4.0 12km S of Langston, Oklahoma 2014-03-21 20:05:59 UTC-07:00 4.5 km
3.1 7km SSW of Langston, Oklahoma 2014-03-21 20:02:35 UTC-07:00 4.5 km
3.3 20km NNE of Enid, Oklahoma 2014-03-20 15:42:32 UTC-07:00 3.9 km
3.2 3km S of Langston, Oklahoma 2014-03-20 07:39:17 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.1 22km SSE of Medford, Oklahoma 2014-03-19 22:12:23 UTC-07:00 4.4 km
3.4 9km E of Perkins, Oklahoma 2014-03-19 13:15:32 UTC-07:00 1.0 km
3.1 17km NNE of Crescent, Oklahoma 2014-03-19 01:54:30 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.1 21km SSE of Medford, Oklahoma 2014-03-19 01:28:30 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.1 6km SSW of Langston, Oklahoma 2014-03-17 11:45:55 UTC-07:00 5.1 km
3.3 3km S of Jones, Oklahoma 2014-03-17 01:13:38 UTC-07:00 9.3 km
3.0 20km SSE of Medford, Oklahoma 2014-03-15 12:27:05 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.3 13km ENE of Anthony, Kansas 2014-03-12 02:50:25 UTC-07:00 3.1 km
3.7 4km SSW of Langston, Oklahoma 2014-03-11 05:55:27 UTC-07:00 3.8 km
3.0 13km E of Stillwater, Oklahoma 2014-03-10 07:47:45 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.3 12km E of Stillwater, Oklahoma 2014-03-10 07:11:20 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.1 2km E of Choctaw, Oklahoma 2014-03-09 10:05:54 UTC-07:00 8.7 km
3.2 14km NW of Chandler, Oklahoma 2014-03-08 14:50:55 UTC-07:00 5.0 km
3.2 11km ESE of Guthrie, Oklahoma 2014-03-07 18:34:13 UTC-07:00 1.4 km
3.0 4km SW of Langston, Oklahoma 2014-03-07 18:29:04 UTC-07:00 4.9 km
3.3 7km N of Spencer, Oklahoma 2014-03-05 07:17:06 UTC-07:00 6.4 km
3.0 14km S of McCord, Oklahoma 2014-03-02 07:55:46 UTC-07:00 3.0 km
3.5 14km ESE of Luther, Oklahoma 2014-03-01 21:21:46 UTC-07:00 4.4 km
1368. sar2401
Quoting Qazulight:


Oh, it does mean a lot. I drove a few hundred miles yesterday, all on dry pavement. Until the middle of March many of the roads still had ice or snow on them. Now the snow is just in patches under trees and such.

I did see people still parked out on the lakes doing ice fishing, but the snow was gone so no snow mobiles. Maybe they sledders will get one more ride before they put the toys away.

Cheers
Qazulight

LOL. I guess that kind of thing is really relative. To me, meteorological spring means the azaleas are starting to bloom and the snowbirds start heading back north. :-)
1369. Patrap
1370. Dakster
Quoting 1355. wxmod:



I don't see any fracking quakes in your area.


No reason to cuss, this is a family blog.
1371. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
are you ready for another one?..April 7th..gee.......

As long as it's no worse than what we've had, I'll take the rain. The time is coming when it be 900 degrees again and we'll need all the soil moisture we can get. So far, it seems none of the models can come into agreement on this event yet. The boys in Birmingham are not looking at this with much confidence.
1372. Patrap
Yellowstone Earthquake: Volcanic Eruption Not Expected After Strongest Tremor in 29 Years

By Nick Wiltgen

Published: Mar 30, 2014, 2:20 PM EDT weather.com

Yellowstone National Park was shaken by its largest earthquake in 29 years Sunday, but scientists say there is no concern that the quake will lead to an eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera, a supervolcano located in the park.

(MORE: Yellowstone's Magma Chamber Larger Than Once Thought)

The magnitude-4.8 earthquake struck inside the park boundaries at 6:34 a.m. MDT Sunday. The epicenter was near the middle of the park, near the Norris Geyser Basin, according to Peter Cervelli of the U.S. Geological Survey.


The quake, the largest since another 4.8 tremor in 1985, was preceded by two foreshocks measuring 2.8 and 3.0 at 12:23 a.m. and 4:36 a.m. Sunday, respectively. The main shock was then followed by at least four aftershocks ranging in magnitude from 2.5 to 3.3 later Sunday morning.

There were no immediate reports of damage. There are few visitors in the park this time of year.

Cervelli said the earthquake is interesting scientifically because of the length of time since a quake of equal intensity. He added that data gathered from earthquakes give scientists great insight into volcanoes and tectonics.

However, Cervelli said there are no hazardous implications, and that the Yellowstone Caldera is not about to erupt.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
1373. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


No reason to cuss, this is a family blog.

LOL.
Quoting 1369. Patrap:


I think that's the opposite of Winter coming
1375. Dakster
Quoting 1374. nwobilderburg:


I think that's the opposite of Winter coming


When Summer comes it is hot, wet, loud, and windy...
1376. Patrap
IPCC Update Will Highlight Extreme Dangers Of Unchecked Climate Change

March 25, 2014


Lawrence LeBlond for redOrbit.com – Your Universe Online

A body of the UN is set to deliver an update on the impacts of climate change, an update that highlights the growing dangers of global warming if no actions are taken to reverse its effects.

Ahead of the upcoming IPCC report, due out on March 31, 2014, scientists and government representatives are meeting in Yokohama, Japan this week to work out the details of a 29-page summary that will be part of the first new IPCC update in seven years.

According to a BBC News report, leaked documents are foretelling the dark threats the world’s economies are facing as a result of unchecked climate change. The UN scientists state in the documents that the impacts of climate change will leave a future stalked extreme floods, drought, food shortages, conflict and economic damage.

“We have a lot clearer picture of impacts and their consequences… including the implications for security,” Chris Field of the United States’ Carnegie Institution told AFP’s Richard Ingham.

The latest meeting comes six months after the first volume of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report declared scientists were more certain than ever that global warming was directly attributed to humans.

The leaked documents predict that global temperatures will rise anywhere from 0.5 to 8.6 degrees Fahrenheit this century, adding to the already 1.3-degree rise since the Industrial Revolution. Seas are also expected to rise by 10.4 to 32.8 inches by the 22nd century.

While it is uncertain how costly the rising temperatures will become, it has been suggested that a warming of just 4.5 degrees over pre-industrial times could cost upwards of two percent of the global annual income, a figure that translates to hundreds of billions of dollars each year.

“The assessments that we can do at the moment probably still underestimate the actual impacts of future climate change,” Jacob Schewe of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, who was not involved in the IPCC drafting, told the BBC.

Many scientists are in agreement that the recent string of heat waves, droughts and floods are evidence that climate change is on the march – and concur that these once rare events will become much more common.

CLIMATE CONCERNS

The leaked documents also shed light on some concerning details about the future.

A rise in greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant impact on the risk of floods, with Europe and Asia among the continents that will feel the harshest wrath. If the highest warming scenario is matched, three times as many people will be exposed to severe flooding as with the lower warming scenario.

On the other end of the spectrum, for every 1.8-degree-F rise in temperature, another seven percent of the world’s population will see renewable water resources decline by one-fifth.

If no measures are taken to curb the effects of climate change, hundreds of millions of people living along coastal plains will be displaced by the year 2100 due to rising sea levels. Several small-island nations and many parts of East, Southeast and South Asia will be the biggest losers in this scenario.

Climate change will also lead to a two-percent-per-decade decline in the average yields of wheat, rice and corn. Also, demand for these crops will likely rise by up to 14 percent by 2050 as the world population balloons. Those in the poorest, most tropical countries will feel the effects of hunger the worst.

Many of the world’s land and freshwater species will be increasingly threatened with the risk of extinction as their habitats are damaged or destroyed by the effects of global warming.

As the world faces threats of increasing poverty, habitat displacement and hunger due to the changing climate, so too will the threat of conflict and war increase as populations compete for dwindling resources, according to the leaked documents.

“Climate change over the 21st century will lead to new challenges to states and will increasingly shape national security policies,” the leaked draft summary says. “Small-island states and other states highly vulnerable to sea-level rise face major challenges to their territorial integrity.

“Some transboundary impacts of climate change, such as changes in sea ice, shared water resources and migration of fish stocks, have the potential to increase rivalry among states. The presence of robust institutions can manage many of these rivalries to reduce conflict risk,” the draft adds.

The draft maintains that the world may be able to stave off many of the worst impacts of climate change by the year 2100 if carbon emissions can be reduced “over the next few decades.”

The scientists involved in the draft summary say that they have been able to call on a broader range of observations for the latest report. Instead of just adding up all the effects of climate change, they said they have been able to look at individual events to come to a more accurate conclusion for the world.

“We’ve reached the stage where we can go impact by impact, and say is there an influence of climate change?” Field told BBC News’ Matt McGrath. “We don’t see it with every one but we do see it with a lot. It’s a real difference. Before it was a very general concept, now it is much more specific.”

CRITICISM

While most scientists and governments are in concurrence with the burgeoning risks of climate change, some researchers are unhappy with the latest draft report.

Prof Richard Tol, an economist at the University of Sussex, who was involved with the drafting of the summary has now asked for his name to be removed from the document.

“The message in the first draft was that through adaptation and clever development these were manageable risks, but it did require we get our act together,” he told BBC News. “This has completely disappeared from the draft now, which is all about the impacts of climate change and the four horsemen of the apocalypse. This is a missed opportunity.”

Some critics are also calling specific aspects of the projected effects “alarmist,” such as the impact on conflict and migration due to climate change.

“You have a very silly statement in the draft summary that says that people who live in war-torn countries are more vulnerable to climate change, which is undoubtedly true,” said Prof Tol. “But if you ask people in Syria whether they are more concerned with chemical weapons or climate change, I think they would pick chemical weapons – that is just silliness.”

But Dr Arthur Petersen, chief scientist at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, who is representing his government at the Japan meeting, is countering the assertions that the summary is too alarmist, noting that the summary leaders from Working Group I had to anticipate all the challenges that might arise in a warming world.

“Working group I (the physical sciences) doesn’t want to sound alarmist. In working group II, they don’t want to chance not having spotted a particular risk so they have a bias in the other direction,” he told the BBC’s McGrath. “In this report, they are more honest and open that they have a risk orientation because they do focus more on the risks than the opportunities.”

The IPCC’s third volume of the update, which will tackle carbon emissions, will be issued on April 13, 2014, completing the Fifth Assessment Report. The IPCC has released four previous assessments in its quarter-century history.

Each assessment has painted a grimmer picture of global warming than the previous and the Yokohama volume goes much farther than any of its predecessors in forecasting the global, regional and local impacts of climate change.

The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, which was released in 2007, helped bring political awareness to climate change and led to the 2009 UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen. However, several mistakes in the Fourth Assessment Report tarnished the image of some scientists who had worked on the report, leading to much criticism from climate skeptics.


Source: Lawrence LeBlond for redOrbit.com - Your Universe Online

1377. Patrap
A rise in greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant impact on the risk of floods, with Europe and Asia among the continents that will feel the harshest wrath. If the highest warming scenario is matched, three times as many people will be exposed to severe flooding as with the lower warming scenario.

On the other end of the spectrum, for every 1.8-degree-F rise in temperature, another seven percent of the world’s population will see renewable water resources decline by one-fifth.
cyclone tropical très intense Hellen (14R)


FKIO20 FMEE 301843
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20140330/1800Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC:HELLEN
NR:8
PSN: S1500 E04500
MOV: SSE 03 KT
C: 925 HPA
MAX WIND: 125 KT
Quoting 1311. washingtonian115:
I'm glad I'm not the only one seeing sleet and a wet flake or two as others are reporting it.A classic wintry mix.We just expected rain.


Sleet was in the noon update forecast from the weather service. Perhaps a reaction to what was already happening.

Quoting 1368. sar2401:

LOL. I guess that kind of thing is really relative. To me, meteorological spring means the azaleas are starting to bloom and the snowbirds start heading back north. :-)


To me meteorological spring means I only have a few more weeks to get ready for spring weather in the DC area. It may be coming this week but a marine layer just to our northeast could spoil it intermittently.
1381. Patrap
For the first time New Orleans will have never gotten to 80F in March, let alone above it.

So a first for us since record keeping began.


67F now

1382. Dakster
Quoting 1381. Patrap:
For the first time New Orleans will have never gotten to 80F in March, let alone above it.

So a first for us since record keeping began.


67F now



It's all good since the GOM waters are not in the city...
This right here is a band of very heavy snow that has been over me for the past one and a half hours. Roadways went from having lots of puddles on them to being snow covered in about 5-10 minutes. 



By the way I am right by the white circle at the center of the radar :)
1385. Patrap
Quoting 1382. Dakster:


It's all good since the GOM waters are not in the city...


Indeed, 14.5 billion spent will do dat.

Upgraded metro New Orleans levees will greatly reduce flooding, even in 500-year storms


Metro New Orleans approaches the busiest period of the 2013 hurricane season with the best flood control system of any coastal community in the United States: A $14.5-billion network of levees, floodwalls and pumps that nearly eliminates flooding for most so-called 100-year events and substantially reduces flooding from much larger hurricanes.
1386. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Wow! Snow is gone, roads are clear, temperature is up to 46...things are looking more like spring up there, Keep. Any signs of those first daffodils yet?
Quoting 1386. sar2401:

Wow! Snow is gone, roads are clear, temperature is up to 46...things are looking more like spring up there, Keep. Any signs of those first daffodils yet?
not yet

tomorrow calling for highs of 55 maybe a little higher
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE HELLEN (14-20132014)
22:00 PM RET March 30 2014
===============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Hellen (925 hPa) located at 15.0S 45.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 125 knots with gusts of 175 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and up to 40 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northwestern quadrant and southeastern quadrants, and up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 95 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/7.0/D2.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 15.7S 45.2E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 16.3S 44.8E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 17.1S 43.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 17.7S 41.4E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=========================

After presenting from 1100z to 1500z a DT=7.0 on meteosat7 enhanced infrared imagery, Hellen eye is cooling from 19 dg at 1300z to -36 fg at 1800z. 1710z and 1533z SSMIS microwave imagery still not suggest any eyewall cycle replacement. Hellen is likely to be one of the most powerful tropical cyclone ever seen over the northern channel since the satellite era (1967).

Given the past track over the last 6 hours more southeastern than previously expected, the likelihood is increasing for an extremely dangerous tropical cyclone landfall over the northwestern coastline of Madagascar between Cape Saint-Andre and Mahajonga. Given this possibility, the RSMC tropical cyclone storm surge numerical weather prediction has been run that shows phenomenal sea elevations in the area exposed to the northerly winds (east of the forecast track). This potentially strengthen area is very sensitive because its Bathymetry (plateau)and storm surge could reach between 2-4 meters in the estuary of the Betsiboka river (Mahajonga), more than 7 meters in the Bay of Baly (Soalala) and between 1-4 meters on the coastline east of Cape Saint-Andre. All preparations for a "worst case" scenario should be underway

The system is lying under an upper level ridge axis aloft. Vertical wind shear is weak to moderate (6.4 m/s according to CIMSS at 1800z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18s.Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward, Hellen will keep on tracking slowly southeastwards during the next 6 to 12 hours before being within a too slow steering environment that should lead to a quasi-stat motion. A weakening trend initiated by induced cold sea surface temperatures may taken place by that time. On the hand some numerical weather prediction models suggest a temporarily rising of the vertical wind shear tonight. The intensity forecast remains uncertain according to the small size of the system and its sensibility to the variation of the environmental conditions.

On and after Monday, the mid-tropospheric near-equatorial ridge is expected to weaken. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down clearly. Before re-curving westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding southward. If an overland track over the northwestern Madagascar occurs, it should weaken the system but it is expected to be back oversea at a significant intensity.

Hellen should keep on tracking on this west southwest path up to a new landfall Wednesday night or Thursday on the Mozambican coastlines in the area of Quelimane. Given the favorable winds pattern seen on numerical weather prediction models at this lead time, the intensity forecast is again significantly upgraded.

Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should still closely monitor the progress of this system.
1389. sar2401
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


To me meteorological spring means I only have a few more weeks to get ready for spring weather in the DC area. It may be coming this week but a marine layer just to our northeast could spoil it intermittently.

It should be fabulous down here until the forecast front gets here on Friday. After a frosty night tonight, temperatures will be near 80 the rest of the week. I'm hoping this front weakens and doesn't hang around as along as forecast or it's going to ruin all the outdoor activities for the Annual Pilgrimage celebrations.
Eastern GOM water temps.


1391. VR46L
Taken Earlier today

Modis

1392. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


It's all good since the GOM waters are not in the city...

Those cold northern GOM temperatures are really suppressing highs at the beaches. While we'll be near 80, Destin will struggle to reach 70. When we left Destin Thursday, I had my jacket and hat on. By the time I got 40 miles inland, it was too warm for both. It's going to take a lot of warmer weather to raise those temperatures.
1393. sar2401
Quoting VR46L:
Taken Earlier today

Modis


Oh, man. It sure looks like parts of Madagascar are in for it. It's such a poor country already, with a lousy infrastructure. This is just going to make everything worse.
Quoting 1356. Bluestorm5:
Yes, yes, yes!


Quoting 1349. Astrometeor:
April is going to kick off on a good note here.

Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

77! And with some A/C to boot! Mother Nature must be in a good mood.

I'm glad you guys are finally going to get some warm weather for a change.

We had our first 90 degree day here in central Texas on Friday.

Forecasted to be warm and humid this week with Highs in the low 80's with chances of rain for a good portion of the week.
1395. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not yet

tomorrow calling for highs of 55 maybe a little higher

Did you think you'd ever be able to go outside without a coat again? I remember winters in Cleveland where I never thought it would get warm again. It was always kind of a shock when it did, since we tended to go directly from winter to a two week spring, and then is was summer and too danged hot. Then I thought it would never get cold again. :-)
1397. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:


I'm glad you guys are finally getting some warm weather for a change.

We had our first 90 degree day here in central Texas on Friday.

Forecasted to be warm and humid this week with Highs in the low 80's with chances of rain for a good portion of the week.

Let's hope you actually get some. 20% and 30% here means it probably won't rain at all and, if it does, it won't be anywhere near me.
It's Snowing ! Surprise!
Tropical Cyclone Hellen is now forecasted to brush the northwestern coast of Madagascar as a Category 4, if not Category 5.
Winds are 150 Mph currently, and the cyclone is now forecasted to peak as a Category 5 right off the coast of Madagascar.

2014MAR30 193000 7.3 889.3 +2.7 149.0 6.6 6.4 4.8 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -76.26 -75.30 UNIFRM N/A 50.5 -15.45 -44.95

weakening flag continues on Hellen from ADT Reunion notes.

Raw Dvorak is down to 5.0
Quoting 1394. TylerStanfield:


I'm glad you guys are finally going to get some warm weather for a change.

We had our first 90 degree day here in central Texas on Friday.

Forecasted to be warm and humid this week with Highs in the low 80's with chances of rain for a good portion of the week.


Southcentral Texas starts to see frequent temps in the 90s in April. I lived in San Antonio for many years (graduated from U.T.S.A.) and it gets hot in April.
I always remember it being really hot on Easter. One year we were having a family get together at a park and the temps were near 100 degrees that Easter.
Quoting 1395. sar2401:

Did you think you'd ever be able to go outside without a coat again? I remember winters in Cleveland where I never thought it would get warm again. It was always kind of a shock when it did, since we tended to go directly from winter to a two week spring, and then is was summer and too danged hot. Then I thought it would never get cold again. :-)


only nice thing with the hanging on of winter even temps this low feel great tomorrows 55 will feel like a heat wave

also warmest day of 2014 so far if we reach 55 tomorrow

its gonna be nice

going to do some outdoor clean up tomorrow

after tomorrow back into low 40's for the remainder of the week with lows overnight just below freezing mark

so a more normal early march temps at the end of march

april on tuseday no stopping spring now
1403. VR46L
Quoting 1393. sar2401:

Oh, man. It sure looks like parts of Madagascar are in for it. It's such a poor country already, with a lousy infrastructure. This is just going to make everything worse.


Yep, shows how close it is to land . and its going to be a strong storm when it hits

AFTER PRESENTING FROM 1100Z TO 1500Z A DT=7.0 ON METEOSAT7 ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY, HELLEN EYE IS COOLING FROM +19 DG AT 1300Z TO -36
FG AT 1800Z.
1710Z AND 1533Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL NOT SUGGEST ANY EYEWALL
CYCLE REPLACEMENT.
HELLEN IS LIKELY TO BE ONE OF THE MOST POWERFULL TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVER SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN CHANNEL SINCE THE SATELLITE ERA (1967).

GIVEN THE PAST TRACK OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS MORE SOUTH-EASTERN THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THE LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING FOR AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COASTLINE
OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN CAPE SAINT-ANDRE AND MAHAJONGA.

GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY, THE RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM SURGE NWP HAS
BEEN RUN THAT SHOWS PHENOMENAL SEA ELEVATIONS IN THE AREA EXPOSED TO
THE NORTHERLY WINDS (EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK).
THIS POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN AREA IS VERY SENSITIVE BECAUSE ITS
BATHYMETRY (PLATEAU)AND STORM SURGE COULD REACH BETWEEN 2M AND 4M IN
THE ESTUARY OF THE BETSIBOKA RIVER (MAHAJONGA), MORE THAN 7M IN THE
BAY OF BALY (SOALALA) AND BETWEEN 1M AND 4M ON THE COASTLINE EAST OF
CAPE SAINT-ANDRE.

ALL PREPARATIONS FOR A "WORST CASE" SCENARIO SHOULD BE UNDERWAY
THE SYSTEM IS LYING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE (6.4 M/S ACCORDING TO CIMSS AT 1800Z)
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD MAINLY POLEWARD IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH A WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTING SOUTH OF 18S.UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED NORTHWARD, HELLEN
WILL KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS BEFORE BEING WITHIN A TOO SLOW STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD
LEAD TO A QUASI-STAT MOTION. A WEAKENING TREND INITIATED BY INDUCED
COLD SST MAY TAKEN PLACE BY THAT TIME. ON THE HAND SOME NWP MODELS
SUGGEST A TEMPORARILY RISING OF THE VWS TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN ACCORDING TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND ITS SENSIBILITY TO THE VARIATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. HELLEN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
CLEARLY.
BEFORE RE-CURVING WESTWARDS THEN SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD.
IF AN OVERLAND TRACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR OCCURS, IT
SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVERSEA AT A
SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSITY.
HELLEN SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING ON THIS WEST-SOUTH-WEST PATH UP TO A
NEW LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY ON THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTLINES IN THE AREA OF QUELIMANE. GIVEN THE FAVOURABLE WINDS
PATTERN SEEN ON NWP MODELS AT THIS LEAD TIME, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS AGAIN SIGNIFICANTLY UPGRADED.
GIVEN THE VICINITY OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE, THE
INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLANDS SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.=
Quoting 1397. sar2401:

Let's hope you actually get some. 20% and 30% here means it probably won't rain at all and, if it does, it won't be anywhere near me.

Yeah, it's about the same here. On Friday though, it was so warm and humid with the incoming front, that severe storms blossomed up to the north of us producing some pretty good sized hail and some strong winds. Those storms produced some good rainfall too, too bad it was to our north.
Until we get a widespread rainfall event, likely through a large tropical cyclone, we aren't going to be able to pull out of this drought until the El Nino Winter forecasted for the end of the year.
Until then, the drought will get worse.

Still a little chilly in the N.W. GOM.

1407. Patrap
The “Where Are We in the Universe?” trailer examines the cosmic horizon and one’s place in the universe. According to the “Cosmos” clip, everyone is “special” since, regardless of your location in the universe, you are at its center due to perception.

Cloud seeding drone planned to be used by the end of the year.



Quoting 1404. TropicalAnalystwx13:

GIVEN THE VICINITY OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE, THE
INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLANDS SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.=


Those areas are well north of the center right now.. not sure why still give them the cyclone watch status.
An hurricane like "eye" on the east coast.
Quoting 1408. Skyepony:
Cloud seeding drone planned to be used by the end of the year.



wunder if ya can get one in the mail order book

send drones off the roof for seeding ops
1412. Dakster
Skye,

Great. Here we go messing with mother nature again...

Does seeding some clouds mean that other people will not get rain? 'Cause you think there are issues with not allowing water to flow...
1413. hydrus
1414. sar2401
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
2014MAR30 193000 7.3 889.3 +2.7 149.0 6.6 6.4 4.8 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -76.26 -75.30 UNIFRM N/A 50.5 -15.45 -44.95

weakening flag continues on Hellen from ADT Reunion notes.

Raw Dvorak is down to 5.0

Do you know of any reliable weather stations in the area where it's likely to hit? The only station I know that's usually reliable is at the airport on the island of Nosy-Be, and it's off the air.
Quoting 1408. Skyepony:
Cloud seeding drone planned to be used by the end of the year.


I just don't like the idea of human interference with the atmospheric patterns.
I have a feeling that with "artificial rain" over California this will cause trouble for rainfall in other places of the continent or world. By tampering with the environment it has the ability to lead to many different extremes.
NWS confirms that a EF-0 Tornado hit Lake Nona yesterday in Orlando.
1417. Patrap


Looks like 90's are going to make an appearance next weekend in FL. Geesh April comes and so does summer.

1419. Patrap
I just don't like the idea of human interference with the atmospheric patterns.

We been terra forming the atmosphere for over 150 years.



Quoting 1411. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


wunder if ya can get one in the mail order book

send drones off the roof for seeding ops


found one Chinese make em wunder if they make hyper sonic ones




1421. VR46L
Quoting 1415. TylerStanfield:

I just don't like the idea of human interference with the atmospheric patterns.
I have a feeling that with "artificial rain" over California this will cause trouble for rainfall in other places of the continent or world. By tampering with the environment it has the ability to lead to many different extremes.


Plus 1,000,000 !

It takes interfering with Nature to another level ...
Spring is on its way to Washington D.C.
7 Day Forecast for DC.
Quoting 1412. Dakster:
Skye,

Great. Here we go messing with mother nature again...

Does seeding some clouds mean that other people will not get rain? 'Cause you think there are issues with not allowing water to flow...

I've seen studies that go both ways on this. Now though looking through most the states, I think most of them have some sort of cloud seeding program.

TX has been fighting it's drought with cloud seeding. It's suppose to have increased their rainfall 12%.
1424. Dakster
Quoting 1419. Patrap:
I just don't like the idea of human interference with the atmospheric patterns.

We been terra forming the atmosphere for over 150 years.





yes and when are we going to learn to stop it. How has that worked out for us so far?

You post all those CO2 we are going over the magic tipping point level of 400 PPM graphs.
1425. Patrap
Taking the Carbon Nature took Millions of years to sequester naturally in the Crust beneath us, then burning it wholesale to run the Globe was a bad idea.


That action has allowed a fundamental change in the Atmosphere, as the Man made forcing has overtaken the Natural ones as the driver of our Global Climate.
Quoting 1423. Skyepony:

I've seen studies that go both ways on this. Now though looking through most the states, I think most of them have some sort of cloud seeding program.

TX has been fighting it's drought with cloud seeding. It's suppose to have increased their rainfall 12%.
they have been doing it out west in alberta as well for a while
1427. Dakster
Quoting 1423. Skyepony:

I've seen studies that go both ways on this. Now though looking through most the states, I think most of them have some sort of cloud seeding program.

TX has been fighting it's drought with cloud seeding. It's suppose to have increased their rainfall 12%.


Great... And some other area was decreased by what %? Or do we not know that?
Quoting 1414. sar2401:

Do you know of any reliable weather stations in the area where it's likely to hit? The only station I know that's usually reliable is at the airport on the island of Nosy-Be, and it's off the air.


try searching Majunga, Madagascar on this website. it looks to be the closest to the landfall area.
1429. Patrap
for Quoting reference, #1424.


Quoting 1415. TylerStanfield:

I just don't like the idea of human interference with the atmospheric patterns.
I have a feeling that with "artificial rain" over California this will cause trouble for rainfall in other places of the continent or world. By tampering with the environment it has the ability to lead to many different extremes.
Quoting 1421. VR46L:


Plus 1,000,000 !

It takes interfering with Nature to another level ...


I also agree.

You can't change the weather patterns in once location without it affecting other locations further down the system.
Cloud seeding in California could increase tornado activity in Kansas? Who knows at this point?
It's snowing heavily outside!.
1432. Dakster
Quoting 1431. washingtonian115:
It's snowing heavily outside!.


You could have April snow showers Washi. How cool is that? Maybe not as cool as June snow showers would be.
Quoting 1431. washingtonian115:
It's snowing heavily outside!.
its nice here bright sun not a cloud in the sky which is good nothing too seed
Quoting 1415. TylerStanfield:

I just don't like the idea of human interference with the atmospheric patterns.
I have a feeling that with "artificial rain" over California this will cause trouble for rainfall in other places of the continent or world. By tampering with the environment it has the ability to lead to many different extremes.


I don't like the idea of it either.

Regardless cloud seeding has gone on for decades in many places, most states, including California. Hydro, AG, ski resorts, water reservoirs~ it is already common.. Here is projects that were active in CA in 2009.

In a report put out last year the California Department of Water Resources estimated cloud seeding projects generate 400,000 acre-feet of additional water supply annually in the state. That's about half the volume of Folsom Reservoir. An acre-foot is enough water to supply a typical household for a year.
1435. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:
Skye,

Great. Here we go messing with mother nature again...

Does seeding some clouds mean that other people will not get rain? 'Cause you think there are issues with not allowing water to flow...

Therein lies the question. Meteorologists that participate in cloud seeding programs say it cause more rain in the areas seeded but doesn't lessen rain downstream. They claim that cloud seeding is a scientifically proven method of increasing precipitation. However, when water districts have been sued because downstream areas claim they were drier than usual, the response has been that cloud seeing hasn't been scientifically proven therefore it can't be blamed for such effects. Seems like some peer reviewed studies need to be made about this.
1436. sar2401
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's snowing heavily outside!.

Well, you did want winter this year...:-)
1437. Dakster
Ok - Anyone else see a problem with this: (I added emphasis)

The process of cloud seeding begins with the chemical. Usually, the chemical is known as silver iodine. This chemical contains a crystal structure, which is the same with water ice. If silver iodine has been dispersed into the clouds, this may cause the droplets of water within the clouds from undergoing nucleation that causes super cooling, formation of ice crystal and spontaneous clouds development.

It may also be conducted with some other chemicals, which include frozen calcium chloride, propane and carbon dioxide. This chemical will be brought into the atmosphere through projectiles or by aircraft that will shoot the chemicals to the sky.
Quoting 1415. TylerStanfield:

I just don't like the idea of human interference with the atmospheric patterns.
I have a feeling that with "artificial rain" over California this will cause trouble for rainfall in other places of the continent or world. By tampering with the environment it has the ability to lead to many different extremes.
I don't either.It's selfish.But that's what happens when California to some is the only relevant state in the U.S.We know their suffering through a drought but it's foolish to mess with nature.Man hasn't learned yet has he?.
1439. wxmod
Quoting 1408. Skyepony:
Cloud seeding drone planned to be used by the end of the year.






California already squeezes every cloud before it gets to Utah. China squeezes every cloud before it gets to the USA. Europe squeezes every cloud before it gets to China. Texas squeezes every cloud before it gets to...

This is the dumbest game in town.
1440. Patrap
The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is a huge mass of rubbish, or trash vortex, held in place in the north-east of the Pacific Ocean by swirling underwater currents. This build-up of marine debris is a danger to many marine mammals, birds and underwater ecosystems as a whole. VIDEOGRAPHIC

I'm just ready to spend my first of many summers on my family's new property. Our new house won't be built for about a year or two, but my family is planning to do lot of camping :)

1442. Dakster
Quoting 1439. wxmod:



California already squeezes every cloud before it gets to Utah. China squeezes every cloud before it gets to the USA. Europe squeezes every cloud before it gets to China. Texas squeezes every cloud before it gets to...

This is the dumbest game in town.


How about a nice game of Chess?
Quoting 1436. sar2401:

Well, you did want winter this year...:-)
Hey I'm not complaining.It's the people who move from your state to here that's having a fit that hey can't see spring.
1444. Patrap
Indonesia to begin cloud-seeding to tackle Singapore haze


1445. Dakster
Quoting 1443. washingtonian115:
Hey I'm not complaining.It's the people who move from your state to here that's having a fit that hey can't see spring.


Since you have someone's ear can you wish for Dakster to win powerball?
1446. wxmod
Quoting 1438. washingtonian115:
I don't either.It's selfish.But that's what happens when California to some is the only relevant state in the U.S.We know their suffering through a drought but it's foolish to mess with nature.Man hasn't learned yet has he?.


California has been cloud seeding for fifty years. They seed the whole Sierra and all of the Colorado River basin, every single opportunity. I've listed the links before. If this surprises you, do some research on California .gov websites.
1447. Patrap
Cloud seeding Experiment Sept 2008

WTWMA cloud seeding experiment. You can see the flares used to seed the clouds.

Quoting 1445. Dakster:


Since you have someone's ear can you wish for Dakster to win powerball?
Okay.I'll also wish for me to do so in the process :).
1449. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:


I don't like the idea of it either.

Regardless cloud seeding has gone on for decades in many places, most states, including California. Hydro, AG, ski resorts, water reservoirs~ it is already common.. Here is projects that were active in CA in 2009.

In a report put out last year the California Department of Water Resources estimated cloud seeding projects generate 400,000 acre-feet of additional water supply annually in the state. That's about half the volume of Folsom Reservoir. An acre-foot is enough water to supply a typical household for a year.

Pacific Gas & Electric have been doing cloud seeding since shortly after WWII. They only seed in the mountains when there are the right conditions to wring out more moisture from winter storms. The snowpack is vital to California, not lowland rains. PG&E has a fairly large staff of meteorologists and climatologists monitoring these programs. They've produced several studies showing the program works but none I'm aware of that talk about any negative impacts. They were doing seeding during the winter of 1952, when the snow fell so heavily that the streamliner City of San Francisco was marooned by heavy snows for five days. Did the cloud seeding make what what might have been a normal Sierra storm into one of the worst in history? Was this a negative effect. We don't know, because we don't know what the storm would have been like otherwise, and the Sierra get heavy snow.

This is almost like a shell game, where you look under one and see more snow, under the other and see less snow, and the third has cloud seeding. The projects have done everything from produce absolutely no results to a claimed 200% increase in snowfall. I have no idea what's really scientifically correct, but water districts and utilities have been cloud seeding so long it's truth to them.
1450. sar2401
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey I'm not complaining.It's the people who move from your state to here that's having a fit that hey can't see spring.

I didn't say you were complaining...
1451. Patrap
The current entry has a lot on it .

: P



Cloud Seeding Can Help Ease California's Drought
Extra moisture can be wrung out of clouds passing over mountain areas to increase the winter snowpack using cloud seeding. Such efforts have been made since the 1960s in the Sierras by the Desert Research Institute (DRI) of Reno, Nevada. During the winter of 2013 - 2014, DRI used six ground-based cloud-seeding generators in the Tahoe-Truckee Sierras of California and Nevada, for a total of 150 hours, to burn a solution of silver iodide, sodium iodide, salt and acetone.

These generators were remotely operated by telephone, radio, or wireless communication, and released microscopic silver iodide particles which created ice crystals, then snow, in winter clouds. Six ground-based generators and a cloud seeding aircraft performed an additional 59 hours of cloud seeding farther to the south, in the Walker Basin Sierras.

According to a Desert Research Institute cloud seeding fact sheet, wintertime cloud seeding does not diminish snowfall in areas downwind of the seeded area. DRI sums up the benefits of cloud seeding this way: "Research results have documented precipitation rate increases of a few hundredths to about 2 millimeters per hour due to ground-based seeding during the proper weather conditions.
Based on the rate increases, estimates of augmented snow water from the DRI seeding program have varied from 20,000 to 80,000 acre-feet annually over the past 15 years of operation. Seasonal percentage increase estimates have varied from 2% to 10%. The cost of augmented water, based on the annual cost of the program, has ranged from $7 to about $18 per acre-foot."
The DRI cloud seeding project is state-funded. Future plans include the development of uncrewed drone aircraft for cloud seeding, which could be operational by the winter of 2014 - 2015. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projects that cloud seeding could supply the Colorado River watershed with up to 700,000 acre-feet of water per year by 2035, and 1.7 million AF by the year 2060, at a very low cost of $30 - $60 per acre-foot.
By comparison, the Colorado River, which is a primary source of water to Southern California, typically supplies 15 million acre-feet of water each year to the U.S. (an acre-foot is the amount of water needed to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot.)

Quoting 1431. washingtonian115:
It's snowing heavily outside!.
Around 3'o clock there was 2+ inch per hour snowfall rates at my house. Got a quick half an inch or so on the grass and a slushy coating on the roadways despite all of the puddles. 

I would have told you about it, but I wanted it to be a surprise ;)
1453. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm just ready to spend my first of many summers on my family's new property. Our new house won't be built for about a year or two, but my family is planning to do lot of camping :)


Looks nice, Blue. Lake and everything. Even the deer stand looks nice.
Amazing that you guys have finally gotten around to the topic of cloud seeding seeing as how Dr. Masters wrote about it in his blog.

*shrug*
1455. wxmod
Quoting 1449. sar2401:

Pacific Gas & Electric have been doing cloud seeding since shortly after WWII. They only seed in the mountains when there are the right conditions to wring out more moisture from winter storms. The snowpack is vital to California, not lowland rains. PG&E has a fairly large staff of meteorologists and climatologists monitoring these programs. They've produced several studies showing the program works but none I'm aware of that talk about any negative impacts. They were doing seeding during the winter of 1952, when the snow fell so heavily that the streamliner City of San Francisco was marooned by heavy snows for five days. Did the cloud seeding make what what might have been a normal Sierra storm into one of the worst in history? Was this a negative effect. We don't know, because we don't know what the storm would have been like otherwise, and the Sierra get heavy snow.

This is almost like a shell game, where you look under one and see more snow, under the other and see less snow, and the third has cloud seeding. The projects have done everything from produce absolutely no results to a claimed 200% increase in snowfall. I have no idea what's really scientifically correct, but water districts and utilities have been cloud seeding so long it's truth to them.



This is the problem with science. It's almost impossible to prove some things. You have to go on instinct.
Quoting 1426. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they have been doing it out west in alberta as well for a while

This one weather modification company is or has worked about 1/3 of the land/countries worldwide.

Hail mitigation at airports is popular too.

NCAR has done research on this for a while. They found the Iodine wasn't effective. Despite the lack of hard, consistent and repeatable evidence to support it, many government agencies and private firms continue to take part in cloud seeding. In its 2003 report, "Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research," a panel of the National Academies found that 10 U.S. states were conducting at least 66 cloud-seeding programs.



There is a newer method they say works where they use hygroscopic particles..like potassium chloride or sodium chloride (salt). But it doesn't end a drought since you have to have the right type of cloud to seed them into or no rain. Those clouds are hardly around in a drought.

Snow has accumulated on the cars and grassy areas.Nice fat flakes.
1458. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:
Ok - Anyone else see a problem with this: (I added emphasis)

The process of cloud seeding begins with the chemical. Usually, the chemical is known as silver iodine. This chemical contains a crystal structure, which is the same with water ice. If silver iodine has been dispersed into the clouds, this may cause the droplets of water within the clouds from undergoing nucleation that causes super cooling, formation of ice crystal and spontaneous clouds development.

It may also be conducted with some other chemicals, which include frozen calcium chloride, propane and carbon dioxide. This chemical will be brought into the atmosphere through projectiles or by aircraft that will shoot the chemicals to the sky.

All rain has a nucleus that's some kind of chemical. There's no other way rain droplets can form. What's the concentration of silver iodine in the air when there's cloud seeding compared the average human with some silver tooth fillings? Is it enough to cause harm to human health? It's the same question with calcium chloride (salt), propane, and carbon dioxide. How does it compare to the amount of garbage already in the nucleus of a rain drop? We shouldn't be into the game that chemicals sounds scary, since we have these chemicals around us all the time. What are the specific health effects of using these chemicals to seed clouds? That's the question.
1459. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH BALTIMORE
COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO STEADY RISES OF CREEKS AND STREAMS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER WHILE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE PASS ALONG
FLOODING OR SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$
1460. LargoFl
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014

MDZ005-006-009-010-310330-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-140331T0400Z/
CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 700 FEET.

* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
1461. LargoFl
Quoting 1431. washingtonian115:
It's snowing heavily outside!.................oh guess we are going to get alot of snow talk now..guess i'll leave..Gnite all..stay safe out there
Quoting 1454. Astrometeor:
Amazing that you guys have finally gotten around to the topic of cloud seeding seeing as how Dr. Masters wrote about it in his blog.

*shrug*


I had to hash this at some point.. Really nice to see Dr Masters discuss it. I've been amazed for years how people wear blinders to this even though it is a huge, nearly global industry that govts take part in as well.


This addresses the down wind effect using the new salt method. Just over a year ago when India was under water the govt started seeding out in the ocean to rain some of that out before it got over land.. It was declared successful..





Rain is the last thing that Indonesia needs now, as it has been experiencing heavy rainfall since mid-January.

But Indonesian scientists believe that inducing rains to fall over the ocean before the rainclouds reach the city will help prevent further flooding in Jakarta.

"We are mimicking nature. It is easy to make rain in most clouds above the sea. We found out that salt from sea water, which evaporates from the sea, accelerates the rain process because it encourages the cloud particles to adsorb water," Tri Handoko Seto, a top official of the Weather Modification Technical Unit of the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, tells SciDev.Net.

Last month (26 January), military planes carrying tonnes of salt started the cloud seeding operation scattering salt onto rainclouds across the ocean. The operation is expected to last two months.

The operation has come into the national spotlight recently because of the Indonesian government's claims that it had succeeded in decreasing Jakarta's rainfall rate, particularly from 26­-29 January when local meteorologists had predicted heavier rains and flooding.

"We have conducted an evaluation using the data in our radar device, which records cloud development and movement. From our analysis, cloud seeding contributed to the decrease of rainfall in Jakarta during this period," says Seto.


1463. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Amazing that you guys have finally gotten around to the topic of cloud seeding seeing as how Dr. Masters wrote about it in his blog.

*shrug*

Indeed, especially when a scientist uses the headline:
Cloud Seeding Can Help Ease California's Drought
when there's no scientific proof that statement is true. He then goes on to cite as his source the Desert Research Institute, which makes a substantial portion of its revenue by supporting and engaging in cloud seeding. I posted about this previously and no one seemed to care.
1464. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
Quoting 1431. washingtonian115:
It's snowing heavily outside!.................oh guess we are going to get alot of snow talk now..guess i'll leave..Gnite all..stay safe out there

Are you the same Largo that just posted the Winter Weather Advisory about snow???
Quoting 1416. StormTrackerScott:
NWS confirms that a EF-0 Tornado hit Lake Nona yesterday in Orlando.


It looked like it could have been much worse on radar, the strongest winds must have been elevated, good news that it wasn't worse. I've seen a good number of stronger tornadoes that had a similar shear appearance on radar as that one.
1466. LargoFl
Quoting 1464. sar2401:

Are you the same Largo that just posted the Winter Weather Advisory about snow???
lol she did the same thing to us when we were reporting our storms yesterday..its why i have her on ignore..but something needed to be said lol...gnite SAR..stay safe out there.
1467. Dakster
Quoting 1446. wxmod:


California has been cloud seeding for fifty years. They seed the whole Sierra and all of the Colorado River basin, every single opportunity. I've listed the links before. If this surprises you, do some research on California .gov websites.


And that makes it right, how?
1468. sar2401
Quoting wxmod:



This is the problem with science. It's almost impossible to prove some things. You have to go on instinct.

The problem is my instinct say that, if cloud seeding works and causes tolerable negative effects to humans and the environment, we should do it. On the other hand, my instincts tells me that cloud seeding is a bad thing if it causes intolerable harm to humans and the environment. Which of my instincts is right? That's why we need science. Otherwise, we are in a battle over who's instincts are better.
Quoting 1431. washingtonian115:
It's snowing heavily outside!.


Getting moderate snow sufficient to whiten cars and exposed surfaces and even grassy areas. Big dense wet flakes.

Meanwhile my attitude is displayed below







Quoting 1468. sar2401:

The problem is my instinct say that, if cloud seeding works and causes tolerable negative effects to humans and the environment, we should do it. On the other hand, my instincts tells me that cloud seeding is a bad thing if it causes intolerable harm to humans and the environment. Which of my instincts is right? That's why we need science. Otherwise, we are in a battle over who's instincts are better.


I have a gut, but it tends to only tell me when I'm hungry. Couple hours ago it told me chow down on some leftover lasagna. I noted the observation then went about doing what my instincts told me to do.

;)
Quoting 1469. georgevandenberghe:


Getting moderate snow sufficient to whiten cars and exposed surfaces and even grassy areas. Big dense wet flakes.

Meanwhile my attitude





LOL, just be thankful you don't have a large oak tree in front your yard that sheds its leaves year round.
1472. Dakster
Quoting 1458. sar2401:

All rain has a nucleus that's some kind of chemical. There's no other way rain droplets can form. What's the concentration of silver iodine in the air when there's cloud seeding compared the average human with some silver tooth fillings? Is it enough to cause harm to human health? It's the same question with calcium chloride (salt), propane, and carbon dioxide. How does it compare to the amount of garbage already in the nucleus of a rain drop? We shouldn't be into the game that chemicals sounds scary, since we have these chemicals around us all the time. What are the specific health effects of using these chemicals to seed clouds? That's the question.


Let's see, the reason we need to cut down on burning fossil fuels is because too much of what chemical is in the air? Answer: Carbon Dioxide... Propane is actually worse than Carbon Dioxide as far as a ghg. Now we are purposely putting these in the atmosphere.

All of the information I have found and read on cloud seeding has not studied the effects on plants and animals that get the rain from it. So how do you know it is safe?

I don't know that it isn't safe, but shouldn't the burden of proof be on the people that are going to expose you to it, rather than the other way around?
Quoting 1465. Jedkins01:


It looked like it could have been much worse on radar, the strongest winds must have been elevated, good news that it wasn't worse. I've seen a good number of stronger tornadoes that had a similar shear appearance on radar as that one.
Oh so it was confirmed, makes sense with the pictures of damage and hail yesterday in that area.
Quoting 1415. TylerStanfield:

I just don't like the idea of human interference with the atmospheric patterns.
I have a feeling that with "artificial rain" over California this will cause trouble for rainfall in other places of the continent or world. By tampering with the environment it has the ability to lead to many different extremes.



I agree, people who support cloud seeding may have forgotten about the sensitivity of intial condtions in meteorology.
Sadly, many times the foolishness of mankind prevails over the intelligence of mankind. I don't think its a wise idea, the sensitivity of initial conditions means small alterations leads to more significant impacts over some period of time, somewhere in the world.

Edward Lorenz was the first to study this. Additionally, there is no way to know exactly how we would be altering things, which is even worse because it reduces people's fear of it.

People often don't listen to something of warning unless it has instant dangerous results. It plays into our nature to push the boundaries of how much damage we can do with poor decision making.

Its the same reason most don't believe humans are impacting the climate, there is no instant simple way to immediately experience the negative result of the mistake, because of this, people like to convince themselves they are doing no harm. In the same way that people convince themselves that bad diet, and other bad habits are ok. Often when its too late, then mass panic and regret takes place, because subconsciously it hits people what they were doing was indeed, wrong.


I'm afraid cloud seeding is a similar principle.
1475. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:


I had to hash this at some point.. Really nice to see Dr Masters discuss it. I've been amazed for years how people wear blinders to this even though it is a huge, nearly global industry that govts take part in as well.


This addresses the down wind effect using the new salt method. Just over a year ago when India was under water the govt started seeding out in the ocean to rain some of that out before it got over land.. It was declared successful..





Rain is the last thing that Indonesia needs now, as it has been experiencing heavy rainfall since mid-January.

But Indonesian scientists believe that inducing rains to fall over the ocean before the rainclouds reach the city will help prevent further flooding in Jakarta.

"We are mimicking nature. It is easy to make rain in most clouds above the sea. We found out that salt from sea water, which evaporates from the sea, accelerates the rain process because it encourages the cloud particles to adsorb water," Tri Handoko Seto, a top official of the Weather Modification Technical Unit of the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, tells SciDev.Net.

Last month (26 January), military planes carrying tonnes of salt started the cloud seeding operation scattering salt onto rainclouds across the ocean. The operation is expected to last two months.

The operation has come into the national spotlight recently because of the Indonesian government's claims that it had succeeded in decreasing Jakarta's rainfall rate, particularly from 26­-29 January when local meteorologists had predicted heavier rains and flooding.

"We have conducted an evaluation using the data in our radar device, which records cloud development and movement. From our analysis, cloud seeding contributed to the decrease of rainfall in Jakarta during this period," says Seto.



There you go. We were cloud seeding. The weather report said there would be heavy rain. The heavy rain never happened, therefore, our offshore cloud seeding worked because our radar device said so.

This is the kind of proof I usually see when cloud seeders take credit. It assumes that no weather forecast has ever failed, that cloud seeding caused less rain even though we'll never know how accurate the original forecast would have been if there was no cloud seeding, and some kind of dubious analysis showed it worked. When it doesn't work, it's because of all kinds of unpredicted atmospheric conditions came into play, otherwise it would have worked. This doesn't seem like any kind of science I understand.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1477. emguy
Quoting 1465. Jedkins01:


It looked like it could have been much worse on radar, the strongest winds must have been elevated, good news that it wasn't worse. I've seen a good number of stronger tornadoes that had a similar shear appearance on radar as that one.


Well, the radar never actually shows the tornado itself...it only shows the mesocyclone that has the possibility of creating it (and in extreme circumstances, a debris ball on reflectivity)...Also, considering the distance Lake Nona is from the radar sites in Melbourne (and/or Ruskin), the beam is also looking higher into the storm and would have never been able to see the actual tornado either way.
Quoting 1458. sar2401:

All rain has a nucleus that's some kind of chemical. There's no other way rain droplets can form. What's the concentration of silver iodine in the air when there's cloud seeding compared the average human with some silver tooth fillings? Is it enough to cause harm to human health? It's the same question with calcium chloride (salt), propane, and carbon dioxide. How does it compare to the amount of garbage already in the nucleus of a rain drop? We shouldn't be into the game that chemicals sounds scary, since we have these chemicals around us all the time. What are the specific health effects of using these chemicals to seed clouds? That's the question.


THe first experiments in the 40s were done with dry ice. This was to cool the supercooled droplets to a level they would finally freeze and cause nucleation around the resultant ice crystals. Seeding with Silver Iodide, a crystal similar to ice in stucture, came later. I don't know how propane works in cloud seeding because it remains liquid at much higher temperatures than dry ice.

The problem with seeding to get rain is that when you have saturated supercooled clouds around it's often close to raining anyway and in droughts you can't get these clouds in the first place.
1479. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


Let's see, the reason we need to cut down on burning fossil fuels is because too much of what chemical is in the air? Answer: Carbon Dioxide... Propane is actually worse than Carbon Dioxide as far as a ghg. Now we are purposely putting these in the atmosphere.

All of the information I have found and read on cloud seeding has not studied the effects on plants and animals that get the rain from it. So how do you know it is safe?

I don't know that it isn't safe, but shouldn't the burden of proof be on the people that are going to expose you to it, rather than the other way around?

I agree, although there have been studies showing the amounts of silver idine put in the air by cloud seeding is so minute it's unmeasurable compared to background amounts emitted by industrial pollution. It's the same thing with carbon dioxide, something we inhale in great amounts every time we drink a carbonated beverage without a second thought. I haven't read anything about how much propane is used in cloud seeding but I suspect it's a lot less than what gets put into the air with our backyard barbeques. My point was that scary chemicals are not important - it's the concentration of these chemicals in the atmosphere that's important. Even more important is, if cloud seeding really doesn't work, or causes other unintended consequences, why are we even doing it? Tiny amounts of chemicals are not the issue, it's the larger issue of the risks and benefits of cloud seeding.
1480. sar2401
Well, that ended the cloud seeding debate rather quickly. See you all on the other side. :-)
Quoting 1480. sar2401:
Well, that ended the cloud seeding debate rather quickly. See you all on the other side. :-)

Where are you getting tiny? That one article about India used tons.. Why are you referring to tons of chemicals used on one area project over two months tiny?

Another article I linked showed silver iodine as having no effect, yet states, govt & private industry are free to cloud seed as they feel fit.. Wouldn't a better question be why isn't any of this regulated?

The newer method seems proven to be working. Why do you keep saying it doesn't? Got a study or something about using salt that says it doesn't work?
All you'd have to do is ask if it could generate a tornado, if it did create the tornado and who paid for it.

At this point in time you're pants are around your ankles in a civil court.

It likely is the genesis of many out of control tornadoes. Not in some other location but right at that location, as a matter of fact.