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Camille of 1969 Downgraded to Second Strongest Landfalling U.S. Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on April 02, 2014

On the night of August 17, 1969, mighty Category 5 Hurricane Camille smashed into the Mississippi coast with incredible fury, bringing the largest U.S. storm surge on record--an astonishing 24.6 feet in Pass Christian, Mississippi (a record since beaten by 2005's Hurricane Katrina.) Camille barreled up the East Coast and dumped prodigious rains of 12 - 20 inches with isolated amounts up to 31" over Virginia and West Virginia, with most of the rain falling in just 3 - 5 hours. The catastrophic flash flooding that resulted killed 113 people, and the 143 people the storm killed on the Gulf Coast brought Camille's death toll to 256, making it the 15th deadliest hurricane in U.S. history. Up until now, Camille's landfall intensity had been rated at 190 mph--the highest on record for an Atlantic hurricane, and second highest on record globally, behind Super Typhoon Haiyan's 195 mph winds at landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. However, Camille's landfall intensity has now been officially downgraded to 175 mph, thanks to a reanalysis effort by Margie Kieper and Hugh Willoughby of Florida International University and Chris Landsea and Jack Beven of NHC. Camille's central pressure at landfall was lowered from the previous 909 mb to 900 mb, though. The re-analysis results, presented Tuesday at the American Meteorological Society's 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology , puts Camille in second place for the strongest landfalling hurricane in U.S. history. The top spot is now held by the Great 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that hit the Florida Keys, which reanalysis showed had 185 mph winds and a central pressure of 892 mb at landfall. The only other Category 5 hurricanes on record to hit the U.S. were 1992's Hurricane Andrew (165 mph winds and a 922 mb central pressure) and the 1928 “San Felipe” Hurricane in Puerto Rico (160 mph winds, 931 mb central pressure.) Category 5 hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 156 mph or greater. Revisions to Camille were accomplished by obtaining the original observations from ships, weather stations, coastal radars, Navy/Air Force/Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA) Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance planes, ESSA/NASA satellite imagery, and by analyzing Camille based upon our understanding of hurricanes today. (ESSA is now the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration--NOAA.)


Figure 1. Hurricane Camille as seen on Sunday, August 17, 1969, about eight hours before making landfall on the Mississippi coast. At the time, Camille was a peak-strength Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Ships beached by Hurricane Camille's record storm surge in Mississippi. Image credit: NOAA photo library.

Hurricane Audrey of 1957 Downgraded to a Category 3
A reanalysis effort on the 1955 - 1964 Atlantic hurricane seasons is also underway, and Sandy Delgado of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) in Miami, FL reported on Tuesday that Hurricane Audrey, which had previously been rated as the only June Category 4 Atlantic hurricane, has now lost that distinction. Audrey's top winds at landfall were downgraded to Category 3 status, from 145 mph to 120 mph, which still makes it the strongest landfalling June Atlantic hurricane on record (though Hurricane Alma passed just west of Key West on June 8, 1966 as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds.) Audrey killed 416 people in Texas and Louisiana, making it the 7th deadliest hurricane in U.S. history. Delgado's analysis also found twelve previously unrecognized tropical storms from the 1955 - 1964 period.


Figure 3. Hurricane Audrey near landfall on June 27, 1957. At the time, Audrey was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA.

Reanalysis of 1946 - 1950 hurricanes completed
HURDAT, the official Atlantic hurricane database, has now been updated with a reanalysis of the 1946 to 1950 hurricane seasons. This was an active period for hurricanes, with 13 striking the continental United States (an average five year span would have about nine U.S. hurricane impacts.) Five of the 13 were major hurricanes at U.S. landfall, and all five struck Florida. These are a Category 4 hurricane in Fort Lauderdale in 1947, a Category 4 hurricane in Everglades City in 1948, a Category 4 hurricane in Lake Worth in 1949, Category 3 Hurricane Easy in Cedar Key in 1950, and Category 4 Hurricane King in Miami in 1950. Of these, King and the 1948 and 1949 hurricanes were upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 based upon the reanalysis. Having five major hurricanes making landfall in Florida is a record for a five year period, equaled only by the early 2000s. In addition, nine new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. The number of major hurricanes for 1950 was reduced from eight to six, putting that year in second place for the most major hurricanes in one year. The record is now held by 2005, with seven major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita, Wilma, Beta; thanks go to Mark Cole for bringing this stat to my attention.) Andrew Hagen, Donna Sakoskie, Daniel Gladstein, Sandy Delgado, Astryd Rodriguez, Chris Landsea and the NHC Best Track Change Committee all made substantial contributions toward the reanalysis of the 1946 - 1950 hurricane seasons.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
1002. Dakster
Quoting 999. Grothar:
tomorrow



Thanks Grothar for posting that. Notice everything is OK for our neck of the woods.
1003. hydrus
Quoting 956. Dakster:


Everyone dinner at Hyrdus's house. Hopefully the weather will be good there.
I can hook everyone up with delicious food, and lots of it...Weather wise, we are going to get whacked according to the local Mets..Twice if the current model pans out. I am looking at the gulf low that will form with great interest. Right now, isobars do not look to tight, that is good..
1004. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 349 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1005. Patrap
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1006. LargoFl
Severe Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

TXC085-121-032145-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-140403T2145Z/
DENTON TX-COLLIN TX-
347 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIN AND NORTHERN DENTON COUNTIES...

AT 347 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DENTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHADY
SHORES...OAK POINT...CROSS ROADS...LINCOLN PARK...KRUGERVILLE...RAY
ROBERTS PARK ISLE DU BOIS...AUBREY...LITTLE ELM...PROSPER...CELINA...
MCKINNEY...WESTON...NEW HOPE AND MELISSA

THIS WILL IMPACT I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 461 AND 466.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.


1007. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 352 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Quoting 1003. hydrus:
I can hook everyone up with delicious food, and lots of it...Weather wise, we are going to get whacked according to the local Mets..Twice if the current model pans out. I am looking at the gulf low that will form with great interest. Right now, isobars do not look to tight, that is good..


What is the opinion of the local mets on this?

Ours all say maybe bad, maybe not, wait and see. Most of them won't even mention it on air.
1009. LargoFl
1010. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 453 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
New #tornado watch until 9pm CT for SW Mo., extreme SE Kan., E Okla. and far northwest Ark.
1012. sar2401
Quoting MoeHoward:
Oh my!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-cooling-real -inconvenient-truth-140500879.html

There's a reply to that article by a Yahoo user named Dom I'm going to quote here because he says it much better than me.

Its quite remarkable. When you look at the replies here or in other articles about climate change that come to opposite conclusions, and regardless of what YOUR opinion is, the most important criterion by which people judge the arguments is not their logical cogency, nor even the credentials of the author. Rather, it is the AFFILIATION of the author.

On these boards, most readers are climate change "skeptics." But paradoxically, in this thread, there is much antagonism to the authors conclusions -- not because his arguments are flawed (although I think they are, but that's another story) but because he is affiliated with the oil industry.

Its very sad, really. People see so many scandals and conspiracies in the media, that they believe these are the norm, and that everyone is dishonest. Everything is a “conflict of interest”. A person working for the auto industry can’t credibly talk about auto safety. A person working for a drug company can’t credibly talk about drugs. A person working on Wall Street can’t credibly talk about financial reform. And of course a person working for the oil industry can't credible discuss climate change (nor can climate scientists who are not affiliated with the industry -- they are in a conspiracy to receive grant support).

In other words, the people who understand these complex topics the best are “tainted” and dismissed because they work in the industries being discussed or regulated. So we rely on people who know just enough to be superficial and dangerous. We have no trust in “experts” because they are, by definition, interest conflicted. Throw in the internet, where every Tom, Dick, and Harry gets to weigh in with some poorly informed “opinion” and we get where we are now: A cacophony of dunces. This is true equality I guess – everyone’s opinion is equally “valid” and philosophers and fools all swim together.

But of course, the results are what they are. In my lifetime I have never seen a more anti-intellectual age.
343 pm: Golfball to 2" hail being reported in Denton
1014. hydrus
1015. Patrap
CBS NEWSApril 3, 2014, 3:08 PM
U.S. military successfully launches weather satellite


A $518 million military weather satellite launched Thursday morning from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base.

The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program 19 (DMSP-19) spacecraft lifted off from Space Launch Complex 3 atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 rocket.

The DMSP-5D3 F-19 satellite was the 52nd to launch as part of the DMSP program, which started in the 1960s as a way to monitor the cloud patterns over the former Soviet Union and parts of China. Today, the program provides real-time weather data to troops, among other functions.

The Air Force says the satellite will be especially useful at forecasting severe storms. It will also carry an array of sensors designed to collect meteorological data for analysis.

"The launch of DMSP-19 continues the vital weather support to operational commanders for another decade," said Colonel Scott Larrimore, director of the Space and Missile Systems Center's Defense Weather Systems Directorate, in a U.S. Air Force press release. "Congratulations to a great team, which included the 30th Space Wing, ULA, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman."

"Weather guides some of the most important decisions in the armed forces, from flight patterns to troop movements. Through DMSP, we're helping to provide safer, successful missions," Sue Stretch, DMSP program director at Lockheed Martin, told Space Flight Now.
2014 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
1016. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 458 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A nice & quiet day is ending...

1018. Grothar
Quoting 1002. Dakster:


Thanks Grothar for posting that. Notice everything is OK for our neck of the woods.


So far. It looks like there could be some serious storms with this system. It seems like more people are taking precautions than before.
1019. Grothar
1020. Dakster
Quoting 1013. hurricanes2018:
343 pm: Golfball to 2" hail being reported in Denton


That will put a DENT ON just about everything... ouch.
1021. Patrap
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 401 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1022. LargoFl
well the dinner bell has rung lol...good night folks..stay safe out there..........
1023. Patrap
Adios'
1024. Dakster
Quoting 1022. LargoFl:
well the dinner bell has rung lol...good night folks..stay safe out there..........


You eat early...
1025. hydrus
Quoting 1008. GeorgiaStormz:


What is the opinion of the local mets on this?

Ours all say maybe bad, maybe not, wait and see. Most of them won't even mention it on air.
I cannot pull the local statement for some reason..Here is the latest from SPC..



Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thursday Apr 03 2014


Valid 032000z - 041200z


..there is a MDT risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of MO...AR...srn
Illinois...western Kentucky...western Tennessee...northwest MS and northern la...


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the MS
valley...Ozarks...srn plains...Ohio and Tennessee valleys...


..potential for outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes exists late
this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ozarks and middle MS
valley...


A potent upper-level trough is moving out into the southern High Plains
at this time with a 80 to 100 knots middle-level jet currently over the Texas
Panhandle. As this middle-level jet moves east-northeastward across a moist and
unstable warm sector late this afternoon...several clusters of
tornadic supercells are expected to develop in the Ozarks and middle MS
valley. Numerous thunderstorms are currently developing along a warm
front extending eastward across central MO into southern Illinois and south-southwestward along a
cold front in southeast Kansas and northestern OK with more isolated development south
of the Red River. In addition to the storms developing along
boundaries...model forecasts suggest that several clusters of
discrete storms will develop across the warm sector from far eastern OK
eastward across scntrl MO and Arkansas.


Objective analysis currently shows a 50-60 knots low-level jet across
the moderate risk area. WSR-88D vwps at Springfield MO...Little Rock
Arkansas and forth Smith Arkansas show strong low-level shear profiles with 0-3
km storm relative helicities in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range. The
low-level shear should increase as the middle-level jet in the Southern
Plains approaches from the west. As this feature merges with the
low-level jet late this afternoon...low-level and deep-layer shear
profiles will become very favorable for supercells and tornadoes.
The current thinking is that several clusters of supercells will
develop across the moderate risk area and that multiple significant
tornadoes will be likely. Several long-track tornadoes will be
possible as well. At this point...the most favored corridor appears
to be from Springfield MO southward to near Little Rock and eastward to near
Poplar Bluff MO and Memphis Tennessee.


For an outbreak of tornadoes...several factors must come together.
The first is that many discrete cells would need to initiate across
the warm sector as the low to middle-level jet couplet passes by. A
couple model solutions keep most of the convective development along
the cold front which raises the question about how many discrete
storms there will be. Another factor that could impact the event is
the large number of storms that developed across the warm sector
this morning. Also...there is still considerable spread among model
solutions. For these reasons...will keep the outlook at upper-end
moderate risk maintaining the potential for a outbreak of severe
storms from this afternoon through the evening and overnight period.

1026. Grothar
1027. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 506 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
*yawns*

None of the cells are spinning up well just like yesterday. Got to wait for storms to hopefully mature as it get deeper into Eastern Missouri/Central Arkansas. Not too impressive right now tornadic wise.
1029. dabirds
Doing well Ped, how about you? No lightning in the blob around me at the moment, just more rain. We'll see how that line out in W MO pans out later, prob gets here when I head out for Dart league tonight.

Spoke to soon, just heard a rumble, so some lightning that wasn't/isn't showing up on WU's StL Nexrad
1030. Patrap
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TORNADO WARNING     SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 410 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

1033. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 412 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
410 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 406 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROSS TIMBERS...EDWARDS...FRISTOE...HASTAIN AND LAKEVIEW HEIGHTS.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES TRUMAN LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 9312 3802 9307 3803 9348 3813 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 252DEG 32KT 3809 9340

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

DSA
1035. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 412 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1036. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 414 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1037. hydrus
Red on the plateau..
It's a start, I guess. A cell SW of Osceola might have a shot to spin up good enough for another warning.

1039. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 416 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
It was pretty windy here around noon today. One of the bouys near the yucatan which is several hundred miles west of here had sustained winds of 45 mph, likely with higher gusts. You don't need severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the Western Caribbean to get big winds!'
1041. Grothar
Neighbors taking us out for the early bird special. See you guys later. Play nicey nice.

(This includes the alarmists, socialists, denialists, gloom and doomers, tree huggers, etc.)
1042. Patrap
OK Grandpa, bring yer Bib!
1043. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 518 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
1044. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 419 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1045. hydrus
192 hours..Very wet.
Quoting 1029. dabirds:
Doing well Ped, how about you? No lightning in the blob around me at the moment, just more rain. We'll see how that line out in W MO pans out later, prob gets here when I head out for Dart league tonight.

Spoke to soon, just heard a rumble, so some lightning that wasn't/isn't showing up on WU's StL Nexrad


Of course you mention darts and it starts to rumble. It is just fine here. Kinda cool and not any rain. Will be heating up into the high 80's soon, maybe low 90's.



Currently 66.2, forecast 68...
1047. dabirds
978) I think you're right about the cloud cover keeping temps down in StL working to our advantage. We were on the N edge of severe area anyway, and hydrus's 1025 post seems to confirm the worst will stay south. All the StL news channels have good meteorologists on staff, Dave Murray on Fox 2 is especially good, however. Ch 4 tends to stay on top of storms, as they come through, though. R u (edit)W, N, or S burbs? N have been getting the worst last few, but...
Not calling this event a bust yet, but the environment right now isn't very ideal for a tornado outbreak, at least not at the moment. Veered surface winds, unimpressive deep-layer shear, and limited moisture isn't letting this event reach it's full potential.

We'll see what happens as the storms move eastward.
Quoting 1048. Ameister12:
Not calling this event a bust yet, but the environment right now isn't very ideal for a huge tornado outbreak. Veered surface winds, unimpressive deep-layer shear, and limited moisture isn't letting this event reach it's full potential.

We'll see what happens as the storms move east.


And that's a good thing...
1050. Patrap
TORNADO 0052
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 0200Z
– States affected: AR OK TX
– Issued: 04/03/2014 at 1850Z
TORNADO 0051
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 0200Z
– States affected: AR KS MO OK
– Issued: 04/03/2014 at 1815Z
TORNADO 0050
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 0000Z
– States affected: IL KY MO
– Issued: 04/03/2014 at 1745Z
TORNADO 0049
– Valid until: 04/03/2014 2200Z
– States affected: AR MO
– Issued: 04/03/2014 at 1435Z
1051. Dakster
Quoting 1042. Patrap:
OK Grandpa, bring yer Bib!


I'd be more worried about forgetting the depends.
Quoting 1047. dabirds:
978) I think you're right about the cloud cover keeping temps down in StL working to our advantage. We were on the N edge of severe area anyway, and hydrus's 1025 post seems to confirm the worst will stay south. All the StL news channels have good meteorologists on staff, Dave Murray on Fox 2 is especially good, however. Ch 4 tends to stay on top of storms, as they come through, though. R u downtown?


I'm out in Chesterfield right now. Had some pretty good storms this morning and at lunch and since it has been more dreary than anything. Was watching the Channel 2 news this morning and the guy knew his stuff. Not hyping things, just letting you know, hey, it's a possibility it could get rough later. My guess is there will be one more round of storms tonight but probably not widespread severe. But hey, that's the opinion of a Floridian in the midwest. LOL
Quoting 1049. PedleyCA:


And that's a good thing...

Yeah, for the people in the risk area, it is a good thing, but this event if far from over.
1054. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 435 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 432 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1055. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 437 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1056. Patrap
Mesoscale Discussion 0266
– Concerning: TORNADO WATCH
– Issued: 4 minutes ago
Pat stop breaking everything
1058. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 543 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
1059. sar2401
Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
It was pretty windy here around noon today. One of the bouys near the yucatan which is several hundred miles west of here had sustained winds of 45 mph, likely with higher gusts. You don't need severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the Western Caribbean to get big winds!'

That's why it's so much fun to sail down there. I really miss it. 25 mph winds in Alabama, 84 with a 61 degree dewpoint. Winds are straight from the south, trying to moisten things up, but not doing so good right now.
1060. Patrap
Quoting 1057. VAbeachhurricanes:
Pat stop breaking everything

Maybe tell the Republicans in The Haus & Senate dat.

: P

1061. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 445 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1062. Patrap


We're gonna need mo help'
1063. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 446 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
I love the new look of the blogs
Link

Well that's gonna leave a Denton quite alot of stuff..
1066. Dakster
Quoting 1062. Patrap:


We're gonna need mo help'


And stronger nails and glue.
Hi and good evening all who are about at this time of day or night?
This historical blog seems to be dragging on a bit and we are thinking what might be going to replace it?

The bad smoggy foggy states of our zone are raising a few eyebrows, handkerchiefs along with interest meters.
The droughts of the Far Western regions of the US are not to be neglected over the next few weeks.
Meanwhile we have he droughts and fires of Australia and the thaws of the permafrost's in Siberia.

All give lend to an interesting spring before we enter the season where by the time you have written a reply 3 more blog pages have passed into the world of paranoid delusions and intense speculations.

The rain has stopped in our zone now and its still very cold for the time of year at about 13/C.
1068. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 548 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
1069. dabirds
DookiePBC - If u like Mexican (or Tequila) hear Espino's is good out there in the valley. Wife has been trying to get me to take her there (& I want to, she likes Tequila & I like it when she has it). I think you're right, probably not too severe tonight, but will be interested to see what they say when get home - heading now - enjoy your stay!
So what's been going on? haven't been here in a while.
1071. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
434 PM CDT Thursday Apr 3 2014

Short term...

An upper level trough currently moving through the plains and into
the Midwest will drive a frontal boundary into the area tomorrow.
In advance of this front...another round of low stratus will
develop over the area. This stratus will linger into the morning
hours and will be tied into a low level area of more stable marine
layer airmass. This airmass will limit the potential of strong and
severe thunderstorms during the early morning hours...and have
lowered probability of precipitation for late tonight across the area. During the late
morning and afternoon hours tomorrow...the marine layer will mix
out allowing for greater overall instability. Cape values will
increase to around 1500 to 2000 j/kg...and favorable lapse rates
aloft will allow for some deeper convective updrafts to develop.
There will be some marginal 0-6km shear of 20 to 30 knots...but
this shear is weaker than previously expected. As a result...do
not expect to see as high of a risk of severe weather tomorrow
afternoon. There will likely be some isolated severe thunderstorms
that could produce large hail...but the threat of damaging wind is
much lower given the weak wind field aloft.

As the upper low low and trough lift to the northeast...the front
will lose most of the forcing driving it to the south. The front
should stall just offshore Friday night and linger over the area
through Saturday. In the middle and upper levels...deep layer zonal
flow will run parallel to this frontal boundary. At the same
time...a series of weak upper level disturbances will move through
the Gulf south. These weak impulses should provide just enough
Omega aloft to produce several rounds of rainfall. This rainfall
will also be supported by a broad area of isentropic forcing in
the low levels...as southwest flow above 900mb rides up and over a
cooler and more stable airmass at the surface. Precipitable water values will rise
to around 1.5 to 1.75 inches and the atmosphere will moisture
loaded. Given this...expect to see some locally heavy rainfall
impact the area beginning Friday night and persisting through
Saturday night. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches and possibly
higher will be possible.
1072. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 451 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
I think I like the commit box down be low then up on top
1074. Thrawst
Quoting 1048. Ameister12:

Not calling this event a bust yet, but the environment right now isn't very ideal for a tornado outbreak, at least not at the moment. Veered surface winds, unimpressive deep-layer shear, and limited moisture isn't letting this event reach it's full potential.

We'll see what happens as the storms move eastward.


The fact that the SPC nearly went high risk suggests that they see the environment improve as storms move eastward. I'd say watch out should storms form/spread into central/Northern Arkansas.
Funnel cloud reported near Laurie, MO by law enforcement.
1076. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 500 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1077. Patrap
1078. VR46L
Does new mail show on this beta page ?
1079. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 501 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 600 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
1080. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 504 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1081. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 506 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 506 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1082. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 508 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Quoting 1078. VR46L:
Does new mail show on this beta page ?


now that you mentioned it. I don't see it anywhere. Maybe that's still on their to-do list... I have the old(sic) site and the Beta loaded in tabs. The beta has some bugs in it.
I'm not sure if I look the new look... but then again, I'm traditionalist.
Quoting 1082. Patrap:
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 508 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014



good job updating on the severe weather..
1086. Patrap
Fold's his severe BETA tent test and goes to eat his Din Din.
Quoting 1084. Bluestorm5:
I'm not sure if I look the new look... but then again, I'm traditionalist.


Know what you mean, I like the classic site for weather, the interim site for blogging and this new one is OK but some parts are hard on the eyes and it is incomplete.
Quoting 1018. Grothar:


So far. It looks like there could be some serious storms with this system. It seems like more people are taking precautions than before.

I note not only that you are even more aware than usual but also that you have recovered your avatar, now that the sun is safely above the horizon in those northern regions!
Must have been about 70 degrees north for all that refraction to be visible, still looking good from here on this "calimar" shrouded day.
1090. hydrus
Quoting 1085. hurricanes2018:



good job updating on the severe weather..
Yes..Thank you Pat..You may have much more for the next 24 hours..
1091. hydrus
1092. hydrus
Quoting 1070. Articuno:
So what's been going on? haven't been here in a while.
many people dealing with severe thunderstorms, they will get worse before it gets better.
Does new mail show on this beta page ?


WU email can be accessed by clicking the person profile image next to the cog image at the top upper right
Quoting 1067. PlazaRed:
Hi and good evening all who are about at this time of day or night?
This historical blog seems to be dragging on a bit and we are thinking what might be going to replace it?

The bad smoggy foggy states of our zone are raising a few eyebrows, handkerchiefs along with interest meters.
The droughts of the Far Western regions of the US are not to be neglected over the next few weeks.
Meanwhile we have he droughts and fires of Australia and the thaws of the permafrost's in Siberia.

All give lend to an interesting spring before we enter the season where by the time you have written a reply 3 more blog pages have passed into the world of paranoid delusions and intense speculations.

The rain has stopped in our zone now and its still very cold for the time of year at about 13/C.


Need to get an extra blanket. 69.5f(high) here. Much cooler over there. Spring is coming....
1095. ncstorm
So the plus/flag/and hide signs are bigger while the comments gotten smaller for the BETA image..WU sending a message?..but in all I like it..
Quoting 1093. HadesGodWyvern:



WU email can be accessed by clicking the person profile image next to the cog image at the top upper right


Thanks for sharing that....
1097. ncstorm
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
6:00 AM JST April 4 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 1.9N 144.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 3.1N 143.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Developing tornado NNW of Dallas-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 547 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO
3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KRUM...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DENTON AROUND 605 PM CDT...
CORINTH AROUND 615 PM CDT...
SHADY SHORES AND LAKE DALLAS AROUND 620 PM CDT...
OAK POINT AROUND 625 PM CDT...
KRUGERVILLE...CROSS ROADS AND LAKEWOOD VILLAGE AROUND 630 PM CDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 457 AND 466.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 9700 3311 9697 3316 9734 3331 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 260DEG 17KT 3323 9725

$$


CAVANAUGH
Quoting 1094. PedleyCA:



Need to get an extra blanket. 69.5f(high) here. Much cooler over there. Spring is coming....

Ped, after only 3 days without it!
I have had to reinstate the electric blanket, hang the expense its seriously cold here now and only 12/C in my house tonight?
Not too sure about how to find my way around this new blog thingy?
Sort of a bit too Technicolor for me at the moment but I'll adapt with some sun glasses no doubt.
I love the new look of the beta!
Meanwhile, in the Pacific...
El Nino appears to be a go from here.

Significant warming occuring across the ENSO regions.

Regions 4, 3.4, and 3 are now all above the El Nino threshold.



Just waiting for Region 1 2 to catch up.
1102. Thrawst
Wow.
1103. ncstorm
WFAA TV..

5:47p A tornado warning has been issued by the National Weather Service until 6:30 p.m.

A tornado is forming near Krum and moving east at 20 miles per hour. Be prepared to seek shelter. - Pete Delkus
First real dangerous storm of the afternoon going toward Denton, Texas. Yes, it's the same town damaged by hailstorm earlier.

Quoting 1100. PlazaRed:


Ped, after only 3 days without it!
I have had to reinstate the electric blanket, hang the expense its seriously cold here now and only 12/C in my house tonight?
Not too sure about how to find my way around this new blog thingy?
Sort of a bit too Technicolor for me at the moment but I'll adapt with some sun glasses no doubt.


Got down to 65 inside here last night. Turned the heater off a few weeks ago when it was real warm and never turned it back on. No one complained so I guess it is warm enough inside. I just have a lap blanket which is quite dense and very warm. Have a few others if need be. Try to stay warm over there.
To put into perspective how much warming has occurred in the Pacific over the past month and a half.
February 17th, 2014 The peak of the cool neutral conditions, this year


April 3, 2014 Currently
Denton is about to take a direct hit by a possible tornado.
Denton has reported a gust to 71kts!
1110. ncstorm
Funnel cloud NE side of Denton..Per WFAA..
Radar via WFAA
Hail of 2.25" in diameter reported on the north side of the suspected tornado.
If there was a tornado on the ground, it went straight through downtown.

1113. hydrus
Quoting 1112. Ameister12:
If there was a tornado on the ground, it went straight through downtown.


Hopefully that's not the case and it didn't touch down.
1115. Dakster
Quoting 1114. Articuno:

Hopefully that's not the case and it didn't touch down.


Good thing hook echo doesn't always mean tornado on the ground. I hope that is the case too.
http://tvnweather.com/live might just have a live video of a twister right now.
1117. hydrus
1118. Dakster
Quoting 1116. SouthCentralTx:
http://tvnweather.com/live might just have a live video of a twister right now.


Which chaser?
Quoting 1116. SouthCentralTx:
http://tvnweather.com/live might just have a live video of a twister right now.

Looking at it, it seems like only a wall cloud fortunately. pretty low, so it could touch down anytime, anyone near this storm should take shelter in case that scenario is to be true.
1120. ncstorm
From twitter

Caution..News Organizations are asking to use this photo so still verifying

Amos Magliocco ‏@amosmagliocco

Over Denton now pic.twitter.com/O6p2iEFK3U

Closest group to the rotation signature has an eye on a wall cloud, but no reported funnel or tornado on the ground from the storm chasers yet.
Quoting 1118. Dakster:


Which chaser?


StormChaseMedia, as they have gotten closer, it isn't one, but it sure looks bad.
Quoting 1116. SouthCentralTx:
http://tvnweather.com/live might just have a live video of a twister right now.

StormChaseMedia.com has a pretty ominous lowering on their stream, but I don't see a tornado.
1124. hydrus
1125. Dakster
Quoting 1121. TylerStanfield:
Closest group to the rotation signature has an eye on a wall cloud, but not reported funnel, or tornado on the ground from the storm chasers.


That is the one I am watching now too... But the Contreras has a view of a nasty storm cloud from further away.
1126. ncstorm
Funnel cloud reported in Fanning County..per WFAA
The Denton cell is likely cycling. It looks nowhere as impressive as it did earlier.
Quoting 1125. Dakster:


That is the one I am watching now too... But the Contreras has a view of a nasty storm cloud from further away.

They are right on top of each other, with two other groups coming down 380.
Brad Cooney ‏@bradcooney1 54s
Denton, TX Police scanner traffic reports damage to roof tops, power lines down. Tornado has touched down
The cell has weakened significantly, but a tornado threat still looms due to the possibility of the cell recycling. Russ Contreras stream had an eye on the rotating wall cloud.
Quoting 1127. Ameister12:

The Denton cell is likely cycling. It looks nowhere as impressive as it did earlier.
Looking like it's beginning try to wrap up again with a new hook forming.
1132. sar2401
Quoting PedleyCA:


now that you mentioned it. I don't see it anywhere. Maybe that's still on their to-do list... I have the old(sic) site and the Beta loaded in tabs. The beta has some bugs in it.

The Classic has bugs in it after only about 12 or so years. I'm sure they'll be right on top of any bugs in the beta version. :-)


Keeping a close eye on the cells near Waco as well as the line forming to the west of Austin.

As a side note, my sincerest condolences and prayers to everyone affected in the Fort Hood shooting. It hurts even more that it is the second shooting in the last few years. Thank you to all of our troops who fight for freedom every day!
Link

denton county police,fire,ems
1135. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:
The cell has weakened significantly, but a tornado threat still looms due to the possibility of the cell recycling. Russ Contreras stream had an eye on the rotating wall cloud.

It appears the tornado warning for Denton has been allowed to expire.
Quoting 1133. galvestonhurricane:


Keeping a close on the cells near Waco as well as the line forming to the west of Austin.

As a side note, my sincerest condolences and prayers to everyone affected in the Fort Hood shooting. It hurts even more that it is the second shooting in the last few years. Thank you to all of our troops who fight for freedom every day!

Keeping an eye on the storms west of Austin as well, we need the rain, so I nice stormy downpour with thunder booming will be music to my ears.
Quoting 1132. sar2401:

The Classic has bugs in it after only about 12 or so years. I'm sure they'll be right on top of any bugs in the beta version. :-)


I'll use the Classic as long as it still works. It isn't supported anymore but still is better than this beta is...
Quoting 1130. TylerStanfield:
The cell has weakened significantly, but a tornado threat still looms due to the possibility of the cell recycling. Russ Contreras stream had an eye on the rotating wall cloud.

New area to watch is between Lincoln Park and Prosper. Appears to be forming a new hook and couplet in that area.
1139. hydrus
Looks like RFD has surged ahead of the new area of rotation. Definitely weakening again.
Quoting 1135. sar2401:

It appears the tornado warning for Denton has been allowed to expire.

They will likely reissue something fairly soon.
It's cycling.

Quoting 1133. galvestonhurricane:


Keeping a close eye on the cells near Waco as well as the line forming to the west of Austin.

As a side note, my sincerest condolences and prayers to everyone affected in the Fort Hood shooting. It hurts even more that it is the second shooting in the last few years. Thank you to all of our troops who fight for freedom every day!


I've been watching the cap break along the dry line and the cells forming as well. The last 30 mins or so they have been popping up good and moving East at around 40 MPH or so. Theres about an hour and change left of day time heating so we shall see if they make it to the ATX before they start falling apart.
Still, nothing much going on in the moderate risk area, but the possibility of new development ahead of the line is something to keep an eye on.
1144. sar2401
Quoting PedleyCA:


I'll use the Classic as long as it still works. It isn't supported anymore but still is better than this beta is...

As will I. It still works better than the "new" version and I can still actually find things.
Quoting 1136. TylerStanfield:

Keeping an eye on the storms west of Austin as well, we need the rain, so I nice stormy downpour with thunder booming will be music to my ears.


Yep i'm heading to Medina Lake this weekend to take pictures since it's at 3% full now.

With me in between Austin and SA I expect to get rain with the way the storms are going now.
Quoting 1143. Ameister12:
Still, nothing much going on in the moderate risk area, but the possibility of new development ahead of the line is something to keep an eye on.

Western Arkansas should be the focal point for the development of the 'main event' over the next hour or two. Have to see how long storms can remain completely discrete as the cold front surges eastward. The low level jet will be strengthening over the next hour as well.
1147. hydrus
1148. sar2401
Cell G3 about to enter Denton city sure looks impressive. 41,000 foot top, 77 VIL, and 100% chance of hail up to 2.75".
1149. ncstorm
WFAA livestream back..tornado developing near mckinny near Collin county (sic)
West of St. Louis-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 711 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DUTZOW AROUND 720 PM CDT.
AUGUSTA AND VILLA RIDGE AROUND 730 PM CDT.
GRAY SUMMIT AND DEFIANCE AROUND 735 PM CDT.
PACIFIC AROUND 740 PM CDT.
WILDWOOD AND EUREKA AROUND 745 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MATSON.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BABLER MEMORIAL STATE PARK AND ROUTE 66 STATE
PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3867 9057 3843 9057 3848 9110 3861 9109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 269DEG 32KT 3855 9106

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BRITT
Here's something to watch. North Arkansas.
1152. hydrus
Severe weather and Tornadoes at night..Bad news.
1153. ncstorm
Retweeted by Brad Panovich
Wilson ‏@WilsonShow 21m

@wxbrad texas pic.twitter.com/iNg7Nf26lH

1154. ncstorm
Tornado on ground in Princeton..outside of McKinney, TX
why is there no one on when theres all these storms
1156. ncstorm
Tornado near Princton..image from spotter

Quoting 1151. Ameister12:
Here's something to watch. North Arkansas.

Developed quick. Just went tornado warned.
Cell heading for Marshall, Arkansas just went tornado warned.
Quoting 1157. MAweatherboy1:

Developed quick. Just went tornado warned.
Echo tops exploded on it. Went from 20k to 51k in almost no time at all.
Uhhhh I know a bit off topic but it looks like this years hurricane season will be boring.Maybe I can get more over time at work (I'm tired of the "it only takes one and look at Andrew".You do realize that a storm of that magnitude hitting the U.S is pretty rare right?).I remember back in my lurking days in 2009 people were waiting for that "one".They were in 2006..1994..1993...1997..and so on.
1161. ncstorm
Tornado on the ground in Farmersville..
1162. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 736 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 735 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 734 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 734 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 733 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1163. Grothar
Still firing up

1164. Dakster
Quoting 1137. PedleyCA:


I'll use the Classic as long as it still works. It isn't supported anymore but still is better than this beta is...


I'll use whatever www.wunderground.com brings me to. That is how I know what the most stable version is.

I may dable at the new one and I have looked it... But I don't always go out of my way to purposely go to it either.
Quoting 1160. washingtonian115:
Uhhhh I know a bit off topic but it looks like this years hurricane season will be boring.Maybe I can get more over time at work (I'm tired of the "it only takes one and look at Andrew".You do realize that a storm of that magnitude hitting the U.S is pretty rare right?).I remember back in my lurking days in 2009 people were waiting for that "one".They were in 2006..1994..1993...1997..and so on.

Not to mention Andrew occurred after the dissipation of the El Nino.
1166. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 746 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 745 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 743 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Joining in now :)
The Texas storm (tornado warned one) looks like the most potent right now, am I right?
1169. Patrap
1170. Grothar
1171. Dakster
Quoting 1163. Grothar:
Still firing up



How was dinner?
1172. Patrap
1173. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 750 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
nasty lookin.





Quoting 1161. ncstorm:
Tornado on the ground in Farmersville..
751PM: Hearing reports of injuries in Farmersville via scanner traffic due to a tornado. Hunt county responding mutual aid.

@TxStormChasers
New cells firing near Pine Bluff, Arkansas.
Quoting 1160. washingtonian115:
Uhhhh I know a bit off topic but it looks like this years hurricane season will be boring.Maybe I can get more over time at work (I'm tired of the "it only takes one and look at Andrew".You do realize that a storm of that magnitude hitting the U.S is pretty rare right?).I remember back in my lurking days in 2009 people were waiting for that "one".They were in 2006..1994..1993...1997..and so on.


To be fair, a non-El Nino year isn't a guarantee for bad storms either.. just look at last year. All those years you mentioned were in some capacity more interesting than 2013.
1179. Grothar
Some intense clouds with this one

Quoting 1175. Doppler22:
751PM: Hearing reports of injuries in Farmersville via scanner traffic due to a tornado. Hunt county responding mutual aid.

@TxStormChasers


Apparently Farmersville FD reported a tornado on the ground near the Farmersville High School. Hopefully it didn't get hit.
1181. ncstorm
yeah..Lets have a race during a severe weather day..
1182. Grothar
Quoting 1171. Dakster:


How was dinner?


Delicious. We got a dollar off our appetizers. :)
1183. hydrus
Significant drop in pressure with this system..and flooding.
TEST ROOF CAM 1
STILL IMAGE

1185. Grothar
1186. Dakster
Quoting 1182. Grothar:


Delicious. We got a dollar off our appetizers. :)


Way to use the AARP card.
Quoting 1184. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
TEST ROOF CAM 1
STILL IMAGE



where is this?
Quoting 1187. nwobilderburg:



where is this?


my new weathercam on the roof with my PWS
Toronto Canada
1190. hydrus
Quoting 1165. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not to mention Andrew occurred after the dissipation of the El Nino.
It may not have been in the ocean but the atmosphere lags and the videos on youtube suggested that mets were pulling the death card due to shear.
Oh boy! This isn't good.

Same cell that produced the tornado in Farmersville.
Tornado Warning for Collin and Hunt Counties in TX until 8:30 PM CDT on april 3 2014


8:41 NWS Fort Worth@NWSFortWorth

BRIEF TORNADO near Farmersville. SEEK SHELTER NOW near Farmersville/Merit.
2 new tornado warnings in missouri
1195. Dakster
Quoting 1189. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Canada


Can we get a live stream from it?
1196. ncstorm
350 lightning strikes around the Farmersville Area..Per WFAA
1197. ncstorm
3,414 (2012)
Farmersville, Population

25,834 (2012)
Greenville, Population
Very impressive storm thus far...

It would appear the moderate risk was probably not warranted today, at least for the tornado threat. 0100z update has it down to slight risk, with 10% for tornadoes.



1201. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 811 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 809 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 804 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 804 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 803 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Quoting 1195. Dakster:



Can we get a live stream from it?



yes it will be once its fined tuned and finish with setup

just finish got dark and winds were picking up
so its like it is till the incoming weather clears out
and winds died down
maybe sunday I will finish it
and have it live streaming to underground
by then
1203. ncstorm
Brian Curtis ‏@BrianCurtisNBC5 2m

.@AmandaNBC5 reports power is out in Farmersville. Tornado moved through earlier. Waiting on damage report. @NBCDFW
1204. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 815 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 814 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Holy tornado warnings
Reports of a #tornado 5 mi NE of Doniphan MO at 8:07p CT and another one 5 mi NE of Fairdealing MO at 8:11p.

@TWCBreaking
1207. ncstorm
2.454 million (2012)
Dallas County, Population
2 houses reportedly gone in Northwestern Hunt County, Texas
1209. ncstorm
edit..double post
Moderate risk may have been dropped, but the main event is getting started. More storms are intensifying in NW Arkansas, and there's actually a tornado warning in western Kentucky.
Quoting 1208. Doppler22:
2 houses reportedly gone in Northwestern Hunt County, Texas

Not surprised. The things a beast.
Quoting 1181. ncstorm:

yeah..Lets have a race during a severe weather day..


THURSDAY, APRIL 3:

ON TRACK
-- 6-7 p.m. ET: NASCAR Nationwide Series practice
-- 7:30 p.m.-9 p.m. ET: NASCAR Nationwide Series final practice


woah!
Looks like one of the bigger concerns here could be flash flooding. A lot of these storms are tracking over the same areas. Tons of flash flood warnings out.
St Louis under a tornado warning!
Quoting 1164. Dakster:



I'll use whatever www.wunderground.com brings me to. That is how I know what the most stable version is.

I may dable at the new one and I have looked it... But I don't always go out of my way to purposely go to it either.


The new (Beta) one is good for the blogs. Well, it will be after a few glitches are addressed. They seem to be keen to work with us if we tell them what is whack.
1217. ncstorm
Possible redevelopment of storm near Princeton..
I've heard reports of a tornado on the ground heading for Poplar Bluff, MO. Shame the storms is a radar hole.
1220. sar2401
Quoting nwobilderburg:
why is there no one on when theres all these storms

There are. Many of us not in threat areas try to keep down comments so as not interfere with reports of what's happening where there are threats.
8:24pm CDT: Power flashes reported with #tornado warned storm heading for #StLouis #MO, nearing I-64 and I-170

@TWCBreaking
Paducah, KY (KPAH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

1223. Patrap
 
234  
WFUS53 KLSX 040123  
TORLSX  
ILC119-163-MOC189-510-040145-  
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0014.140404T0123Z-140404T0145Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
823 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...  
NORTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...  
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
 
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT  
 
* AT 816 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GLENDALE...AND  
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SPOTTERS  
REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR TWIN OAKS AT 810 PM CDT.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
CAHOKIA AND BROOKLYN AROUND 830 PM CDT.  
EAST ST. LOUIS AND CENTREVILLE AROUND 835 PM CDT.  
FAIRVIEW HEIGHTS AND CASEYVILLE AROUND 840 PM CDT.  
O'FALLON AND SHILOH AROUND 845 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SAUGET.  
 
THIS WARNING INCLUDES HORSESHOE LAKE STATE PARK AND SCOTT JOPLIN  
HISTORIC SITE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN  
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID  
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE  
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3842 8982 3847 9020 3852 9026 3848 9028  
3850 9043 3869 9042 3873 8976  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 269DEG 37KT 3860 9030  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
BRITT  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Little Rock, AR (KLZK) - Base Reflectivity (0.5) Radar Site Map

1225. ncstorm
Tornado on ground in Commerce..Per WFAA
1226. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 831 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 830 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 827 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
8:30pm CDT: #Tornado possible over Forest Park/Central West End area of #STL moving E toward downtown. Take cover!!

@TWCBreaking
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
9:00 AM JST April 4 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 2.6N 144.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 3.7N 142.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
St Louis, MO (KLSX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
1230. Patrap
1231. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 832 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1232. ncstorm
Retweeted by Brad Panovich
SpencerAdkins ‏@SpencerWeather 37m

@wxbrad @spann Wow! MT @StormTracker13: CAUGHT! Lightning in Nicholas County by Heather Clutter in Craigsville! pic.twitter.com/pswJzh90OX

1233. Patrap
1234. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 834 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
New cells developing in SW Arkansas. Let's see if it decides to get its act together or simply fall apart.
1236. Dakster
Quoting 1216. PedleyCA:


The new (Beta) one is good for the blogs. Well, it will be after a few glitches are addressed. They seem to be keen to work with us if we tell them what is whack.


No doubt and I see changes all the time, which is great. I am sure that the Beta will be the default one soon enough.
Quoting 1236. Dakster:



No doubt and I see changes all the time, which is great. I am sure that the Beta will be the default one soon enough.


it will be a while get all the bugs iron out and issues that members may have with it

any suggestions if reasonable will be taken into consideration

I think the beta approach is the best instead of just putting it out there

1239. Patrap
1240. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 840 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Didn't a episode on "It could Happen Tomorrow" talk about what would happen if a tornado headed towards downtown St.Louis?.
1242. Patrap
1243. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 844 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
8:30pm CDT: #Tornado possible over Forest Park/Central West End area of #STL moving E toward downtown. Take cover!!


Link

direct hit killed 255 in 1896
1246. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 846 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1247. Patrap
1248. ncstorm
1249. Patrap
TORNADO 0055
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 0900Z
– States affected: AR IL IN KY MO TN
– Issued: 18 minutes ago
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0054
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 0600Z
– States affected: TX
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 0035Z
TORNADO 0053
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 0500Z
– States affected: AR IL MO
– Issued: 04/03/2014 at 2200Z
TORNADO 0052
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 0200Z
– States affected: AR OK TX
– Issued: 04/03/2014 at 1850Z
TORNADO 0051
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 0200Z
– States affected: AR KS MO OK
– Issued: 04/03/2014 at 1815Z
1250. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 847 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1251. hydrus

Little Rock..
Not good.
http://betaplayer.radio.com/listen/station/newsradi o-1120-kmox

KMOX radio live in ST. Louis MO.

Mean looking couplet going through Anna/Jonesboro, IL.
1257. wxmod
Drought monitor released today.


1258. Ighuc
Hard to believe there are severe storms out there, we could get a foot of snow tonight...
Quoting 1257. wxmod:
Drought monitor released today.




painful
1260. hydrus


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS TO MUCH OF CNTRL/E TX...

..MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS TO TX...
BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS EXISTS FROM E-CNTRL MO SWWD TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. MOST INTENSE/PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO INVOF DFW METROPLEX AND
THE INTERSECTION OF THE BAND/LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INVOF
STL.

THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY /INFERRED FROM MODIFIED 00Z CRP RAOB/ WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ACROSS TX WITHIN A PLUME OF MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS...WHERE THE DRYLINE HAS STRUGGLED TO PUSH
EWD THUS FAR. REGENERATIVE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM. LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD AND
SHOULD AID IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF LINGERING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS INTO AN
MCS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SEVERE
HAIL/WIND HAZARDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

FARTHER NE...LOWER MEAN MIXING RATIOS AND MODERATE MLCIN SAMPLED BY
00Z LZK/JAN HAVE MITIGATED WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...INCIPIENT WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR INVOF THE CONFLUENCE OF
THE MS/OH RIVERS WHERE GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR RESIDUAL
LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. WITH THE LLJ STRENGTHENING WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A FEW
TORNADOES THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 04/04/2014
1261. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 901 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 900 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 855 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1262. sar2401
Quoting Ighuc:
Hard to believe there are severe storms out there, we could get a foot of snow tonight...

Where do you live?
1263. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 903 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Picture of an incredibly large hailstone in Denton, Texas.

1266. Dakster
Quoting 1264. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Picture of an incredibly large hailstone in Denton, Texas.



What is that, breast implant sized?
Funnel cloud spotted East of Puxico, MO
1268. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 911 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 903 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1269. hydrus
Quoting 1265. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Greetings keep..Mother Nature showing her might tonight..
Quoting 1264. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Picture of an incredibly large hailstone in Denton, Texas.


baseball size hail

bordering softball size
1271. hydrus
1272. Dakster
Quoting 1270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
baseball size hail

bordering softball size


You must play a different game of baseball in Canada... That thing is huge.

I'll give you softball.
1273. ncstorm
seems to me Texas is the one that is getting the most action..



Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 54
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF AUSTIN TEXAS TO 60 MILES WEST OF NEW BRAUNFELS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51...WW 52...WW 53...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED RECENTLY ALONG
THE DRYLINE...AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS RICHER MOISTURE TO ITS E-SE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE RISKS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.


...THOMPSON
Quoting 1269. hydrus:

Greetings keep..Mother Nature showing her might tonight..



yes battle of the seasons

was surprise up on the roof it was so mild no wind

beautiful

but the last hr of light the wind picked up

it got raw fast

tomorrow rains 25 mm with localize higher amounts in scattered thunderstorms about

nothing like what is south of me

but still there is a chance of some rumberings
Quoting 1272. Dakster:



You must play a different game of baseball in Canada... That thing is huge.

I'll give you softball.


as long as it not melon size we be good
Update: no significant damage from this evening's #tornado warning in St Louis. A few signs, trees down in spots.

@TWCBreaking
1277. hydrus
T.D.5.W looks sheared tonight.
1278. Ighuc
Quoting 1262. sar2401:

Where do you live?


Minnesota, although we'll be in the 50's again very soon.
1279. hydrus
Quoting 1274. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yes battle of the seasons

was surprise up on the roof it was so mild no wind

beautiful

but the last hr of light the wind picked up

it got raw fast

tomorrow rains 25 mm with localize higher amounts in scattered thunderstorms about

nothing like what is south of me

but still there is a chance of some rumberings
They have mid 30,s forecast for us this weekend...I,ll take it...No freeze pleeze..:)
Texas storm is going crazy again.
1282. MTWX
Guess thias is what they mean with "eye of a tornado"!!!!


Link
924PM: Texas State Trooper reported brief tornado between Cooper and Cooper Lake a few minutes ago. No damage. #txwx

@TxStormChasers
1284. hydrus
1285. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 927 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 927 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1286. Patrap
1287. Dakster
Quoting 1275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


as long as it not melon size we be good


yeah Melon or Basketball size would not be good...
1288. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 935 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1289. Patrap
1290. Patrap
TORNADO 0056
Valid until: 04/04/2014 0900Z
States affected: AR LA OK TX
Issued:45 minutes ago
TORNADO 0055
Valid until: 04/04/2014 0900Z
States affected: AR IL IN KY MO TN
Issued: 04/04/2014 at 0130Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0054
Valid until: 04/04/2014 0600Z
States affected: TX
Issued: 04/04/2014 at 0035Z
TORNADO 0053
Valid until: 04/04/2014 0500Z
States affected: AR IL MO
Issued: 04/03/2014 at 2200Z

Nationals 8, Mets 2 F Before heading to Washington for their home opener, the Nationals completed a sweep of the Mets. Tanner Roark was great in a spot start, allowing two runs over six innings. Zack Wheeler delivered a quality start, but it wasn't enough for the Mets. Thursday, April 3, 2014 THE METS SUCKS

THE POOR METS!! what happern to the mets win 0 lost 3 !!!!! the severe weather hit them with lightning and windy and heavy rain..



these are just single snap shots
Quoting 1287. Dakster:



yeah Melon or Basketball size would not be good...


that gonna do serious damage and death if trapped outside in it without shelter

This was taken at the Frisco Rough Riders game tonight
1295. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 945 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
FLASH FLOOD WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 944 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
1296. Dakster
Quoting 1293. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


that gonna do serious damage and death if trapped outside in it without shelter


I wasn't amused when I was outside in a hail storm that was just shy of golf ball sized.
Quoting 1287. Dakster:


yeah Melon or Basketball size would not be good...


Hail that big is a nightmare, that would go through the hood and roof of your car, not just the wind shield, heck it could put a hole in a roof of a home or business if it hits a weak point or weakened roof.
1298. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
434 PM CDT Thursday Apr 3 2014

Short term...

An upper level trough currently moving through the plains and into
the Midwest will drive a frontal boundary into the area tomorrow.
In advance of this front...another round of low stratus will
develop over the area. This stratus will linger into the morning
hours and will be tied into a low level area of more stable marine
layer airmass. This airmass will limit the potential of strong and
severe thunderstorms during the early morning hours...and have
lowered probability of precipitation for late tonight across the area. During the late
morning and afternoon hours tomorrow...the marine layer will mix
out allowing for greater overall instability. Cape values will
increase to around 1500 to 2000 j/kg...and favorable lapse rates
aloft will allow for some deeper convective updrafts to develop.
There will be some marginal 0-6km shear of 20 to 30 knots...but
this shear is weaker than previously expected. As a result...do
not expect to see as high of a risk of severe weather tomorrow
afternoon. There will likely be some isolated severe thunderstorms
that could produce large hail...but the threat of damaging wind is
much lower given the weak wind field aloft.

As the upper low low and trough lift to the northeast...the front
will lose most of the forcing driving it to the south. The front
should stall just offshore Friday night and linger over the area
through Saturday. In the middle and upper levels...deep layer zonal
flow will run parallel to this frontal boundary. At the same
time...a series of weak upper level disturbances will move through
the Gulf south. These weak impulses should provide just enough
Omega aloft to produce several rounds of rainfall. This rainfall
will also be supported by a broad area of isentropic forcing in
the low levels...as southwest flow above 900mb rides up and over a
cooler and more stable airmass at the surface. Precipitable water values will rise
to around 1.5 to 1.75 inches and the atmosphere will moisture
loaded. Given this...expect to see some locally heavy rainfall
impact the area beginning Friday night and persisting through
Saturday night. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches and possibly
higher will be possible.


Long term...

On Sunday...a strong upper level trough ejecting out of The Four
Corners will rapidly deepen in Texas. As the upper trough
deepens...a surface low will develop in a region of enhanced lift
over the arklatex. Over our area...strong divergence aloft will
support deep forcing. In addition...the stationary front will
begin to move inland as the surface low develops. The overall
pattern will be highly favorable for widespread convection to
develop across the area. It looks to be a high shear and Low Cape
environment. Helicity values will be maximized in the vicinity of
the warm front...with values of 300 to 400 m2/s2 possible. In
addition... a strong 55 knot 700mb jet will provide speed shear
values of 40 to 50 knots. However...cape values will generally
range from 500 to 1000 j/kg due to fairly weak lapse rates aloft.
As a result...expect to see qlcs type storms with strong damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes being the primary threat. Precipitable water values
will also be above average...ranging around 1.75 inches. As a
result...some locally heavy rainfall will also continue to be
possible.

The surface low will quickly pull to the northeast Sunday night
and Monday...driving the a cold front through the area. Expect to
see skies clear as drier air advects into the area on Monday. Have
decided to remove the mention of probability of precipitation on Monday given the depth of
the dry air expected. Temperatures will also be cooler in the wake
of the front...with overnight lows Monday night falling into the
upper 40s and lower 50s. Unfortunately...a surge of northern
stream energy will dive into the lower Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday. Expect to see some clouds and showers associated with the
cold pool aloft slide through the area. Have kept in a mention of
isolated showers during this period. As the cold pool moves
through...temperatures will cool significantly...with highs only
rising into the upper 60s. The main trough will pull to the east
Tuesday night...with cold temperatures in the lower to middle 40s
expected Tuesday night as the strongest cold air advection takes
hold. These below normal readings will linger into Wednesday...but
strong subsidence will bring clear skies to the area.
Figures another Severe Thunderstorm Watch becomes a thud for this area. Starting to remind me how 2011's severe weather season started for me.
1300. no1der
What is that on the Fruit scale?, I can never remember the formula to convert from Sports Equipment.
Quoting 1296. Dakster:


I wasn't amused when I was outside in a hail storm that was just shy of golf ball sized.

1301. Grothar
I haven't used this word in almost a year, but that is a blob.

Public reporting a tornado on the ground north of Doniphan, MO
1303. Dakster
Quoting 1301. Grothar:
I haven't used this word in almost a year, but that is a blob.



BLOB ALERT - Already? getting warmed up for the season, Gro?
1304. Dakster
Quoting 1300. no1der:
What is that on the Fruit scale?, I can never remember the formula to convert from Sports Equipment.



Kiwi sized.
Quoting 1301. Grothar:
I haven't used this word in almost a year, but that is a blob.


I've waited so long for you to say the magic word again, Gro!
1306. ncstorm
old man standing in bottom right "Hey Bob, you want mustard on that dog?"

unreal..I would have broken chairs running..and people are sitting there casually..later all..goodnight..and stay safe everyone..

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR CAMP...
TITUS...RED RIVER AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 948 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TALCO...OR 8 MILES EAST OF HAGANSPORT...
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PITTSBURG...HARVARD...CUTHAND...MOUNT PLEASANT...HARTS BLUFF...
WILKERSON...ROEDER...COOKVILLE AND BOXELDER



(TEXAS STORM)
1310. Grothar
Quoting 1300. no1der:
What is that on the Fruit scale?, I can never remember the formula to convert from Sports Equipment.



Orange pit is 1
Grape is 2
Cumquat is 3
Orange is 4
Grapefruit is 5
Canteloupe is 6
Watermelon is 7

Don't you people remember anything?
1311. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



these are just single snap shots

Exposure looks good but kind of blurry.
look out texarcana
Quoting 1294. Ameister12:


This was taken at the Frisco Rough Riders game tonight
nice inflow cloud gonna get a tad breezy
1314. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:

This was taken at the Frisco Rough Riders game tonight

Doesn't look like a big deal to the players or fans. They're tough in Texas. People would be running out of the stadium screaming here.
I was out chasing today and really tried to get on that supercell with the good rotation crossing north Texas tonight, but I made it into the metroplex right at rush hour, so I wasn't able to get through the traffic to it. A shame really. I wish I didn't have that exam today, otherwise I would have set out much earlier and been in position for it probably.
1317. Grothar
Quoting 1264. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Picture of an incredibly large hailstone in Denton, Texas.




Here was her friend




1318. sar2401
Test....it appears the blog is not updating.
1319. etxwx

Nathan Hunsinger/Staff photographer
From the Dallas Morning News
High winds and hail up to softball size caused damage in Denton.
1320. hydrus
Water vapor.
1321. Grothar
Testing 1 2 4

Nothing is loading
umm hello?
1323. hydrus
.
Well, I didn't get any rain...
Dissapointment is the only word that I can use to describe the way I feel right now.

Absolutely zero rainfall. Not even a trace.
The severe storms off to the west fizzled after the sun set, and vaporized into nothingness about 30 miles west of me.
Just another story in the endless list of occasions where mother nature has taunted me with rainfall, and I end up with nothing...
Typical. Stay safe everyone! Goodnight.
hello
that is scary and amazing.
I tried commenting on the beta a minute ago and it didn't post.
So let's try this again.

I didn't get any rain.

The severe storms fizzled out after the sun set, and vaporized about 30 miles west of me. I didn't even get a trace of rainfall.
It's one thing to not get rainfall, but it's a whole new level of torture when everyone around you gets rain and you don't.
Typical. Stay safe everyone! Goodnight.
None of my comments are posting!
1329. hydrus
20:39PST and where did everyone go
1331. hydrus
1332. geepy86
Quoting ncstorm:
old man standing in bottom right "Hey Bob, you want mustard on that dog?"

unreal..I would have broken chairs running..and people are sitting there casually..


WOW
1333. hydrus
This year marks the 40th anniversary of the April 3-4, 1974 tornado outbreak - one of the worst tornado outbreaks to ever affect the U.S. Dubbed the "Super Outbreak", at least 148 tornadoes struck 13 states from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes over a 16 hour period from the afternoon of April 3, 1974 into the early morning hours of April 4, 1974. When it was over, 330 people were dead and 5,484 were injured. Damage from all of the tornadoes combined added up to a path more than 2,500 miles long.

Across Middle Tennessee, at least 24 tornadoes affected areas along and east of the I-65 corridor, making this the largest known outbreak of tornadoes to ever impact the Mid State. In fact, several other weak tornadoes also likely touched down that were never officially recorded. The "Super Outbreak" is considered the worst tornado outbreak to strike the Upper Cumberland Region, with 38 people killed and hundreds of others injured.

This webpage serves to commemorate this historic event with a look back at the 24 tornadoes that struck Middle Tennessee that day, with maps, photos, videos, newspaper articles, research, and more. If you have stories, photos, videos, or other information from the April 3-4, 1974 Super Outbreak that you would like to share, please contact us at sr-ohx.webmaster@noaa.gov.

1334. Grothar
Quoting 1330. PedleyCA:
20:39PST and where did everyone go


Everyone went into withdrawal.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



* Water in Berlin: The moisture down below




Climate Change: A new report from the IPCC implies that "climate exceptionalism", the notion that global warming is a problem like no other, is coming to an end


!!! Old Math Casts Doubt on Accuracy of Oil Reserve Estimates


Milwaukee Sinks as Ebbing Groundwater Undermines Its Foundations

Be Selfish: Fight Climate Change


'Forget the cost: tackle climate anyway'


*** Fermi data tantalize with new clues to dark matter: Gamma rays from center of Milky Way galaxy

*** Gravity measurements confirm subsurface ocean on Saturn's moon Enceladus



!!! Ancient stormy weather: World's oldest weather report could revise bronze age chronology

Cave-dwelling fish examination finds possible genetic link to human disorders

*** Quantum computing: Quantum photon properties revealed in another particle -- the plasmon

Large-scale fences can cause ecological meltdown, study shows


Hot mantle drives elevation, volcanism along mid-ocean ridges

Brazil is site of the first regional ocean health index

!!! Corals don't lie: Centuries of rising sea levels and temperature data revealed


Duke Energy asked to correct South Carolina ash pit problems

* Japan posts top growth in clean energy


$144.5M in BP spill fines to be used for Louisiana beach

Texas Fishing Report


UN to oil industry: You can solve climate change

Grand Canyon: Bison hybrids trampling park lands, sacred sites

As Louisiana's coast disappears, so does landowners' money

Maps of Unborn Human Brains Point to Medical Frontiers


Hummingbird Genes Trace Existence 'on the Extremes'

************************************************* ************************************************** *****

The following article is courtesy of nigel20:

!!! New Program To Build Regional Climate Capacity Launched
It's been interesting to watch the situation across North Texas evolve today. In the 13z hail outlook, the Dallas-Fortworth metroplex was just on the edge of the 15% probabilities. Yet we see that the area was slammed by multiple hailstorms, some producing sizes bigger than grapefruits. Today was definitely one of the bigger localized events for DFW, much like April 3, 2012.
321 123
1338. hydrus
Quoting 1334. Grothar:


Everyone went into withdrawal.
Yep..I had my turkey on wheat with chips,,..all better...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
12:00 PM JST April 4 2014
====================================

Near Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 3.0N 144.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 4.3N 142.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Quoting 1306. ncstorm:
old man standing in bottom right "Hey Bob, you want mustard on that dog?"

unreal..I would have broken chairs running..and people are sitting there casually..later all..goodnight..and stay safe everyone..



Baseball comes first.

'Murica.
That's ridiculous Trent! Everyone knows lacrosse comes first :)
Hopefully I can get a decent squall line with embedded severe wind gusts pummel me with this front tomorrow. Not counting on too much though, if we're to believe previous model progs.
The new look is very choppy on mobile devices. Well at least mine.
Quoting 1317. Grothar:




Here was her friend





Thos things look dangerous.
Quoting 1330. PedleyCA:
20:39PST and where did everyone go


Hey, I just got here. Won't be on long, I'm pretty beat.
Quoting 1321. Grothar:
Testing 1 2 4

Nothing is loading


We are loading now?
Saw a gorgeous full color rainbow ring around the sun today, but I was holding up one end of a 10 foot 2x6 while Brother Housemate was setting the braces at the other end. (Gazebo over hot tub project.)

So, I'm sorry guys, no pic of it. Shame, it was my first one ever.

Following your 'nado reports, hope everyone makes it through with little to no damage.


Warm water from the Carib moving into the GOM.

Year of the homegrown?
Quoting 1348. redwagon:


Warm water from the Carib moving into the GOM.

Year of the homegrown?


No, it's called seasonal climatology. :P
1350. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
321 123

Ah, good, I see the WUnderYakuza has everything fixed. He's right on top of things. :-)
1351. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Everyone went into withdrawal.

Hey, it only took them an hour to notice we all left. I feel so important now. :-)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:42 PM EST April 4 2014
=================================

At 10:00 AM EST a low was located to the south of the Solomon Islands near 11S 158E. The low is expected move west through the northern Coral Sea during the outlook period, remaining well offshore of the Queensland east coast. The low is in a moderately favorable environment for development, but will enter a more favorable environment during the weekend with some intensification expected.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==============================

Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: High
Monday: High
1353. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's been interesting to watch the situation across North Texas evolve today. In the 13z hail outlook, the Dallas-Fortworth metroplex was just on the edge of the 15% probabilities. Yet we see that the area was slammed by multiple hailstorms, some producing sizes bigger than grapefruits. Today was definitely one of the bigger localized events for DFW, much like April 3, 2012.

Yes, it appears the SPC bullseye was slightly off today. We'll see about tomorrow...and Sunday.
1354. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
That's ridiculous Trent! Everyone knows lacrosse comes first :)

No, it doesn't. Everyone knows it's lottery tickets, followed by Call of Duty and GTA 43. :-)
Quoting 1349. KoritheMan:


No, it's called seasonal climatology. :P


Been in the mid-high 80s for a couple weeks now in Austin. Looking for a repeat of 2007, with 52". EPAC has been beyond generous the last month with moisture. If GOM want to send us some, too, then with cold waves coming down from the Rockies, we might put our dent in our 40" deficit.
Quoting 1257. wxmod:
Drought monitor released today.




lovely shades of red
1357. sar2401
Quoting etxwx:

Nathan Hunsinger/Staff photographer
From the Dallas Morning News
High winds and hail up to softball size caused damage in Denton.

The resale value of that car is going to be nil. :-)


Southwest Texas
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 15-20132014
10:00 AM RET April 4 2014
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (999 hPa) located at 15.2S 79.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 17.1S 79.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS 19.3S 81.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 25.1S 84.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS :33.7S 88.7E - Depression Post-Tropicale

Additional Information
===================

System shows a broad clockwise circulation. Since yesterday , deep convective activity has consolidated near the center and general bands curvature has clearly improved. 0423z ASCAT swaths confirms intensity analysis and allows to calibrate the near gale force winds extension. It takes benefit on a good upper level divergence poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 20s.

Under the both steering influences of a low/mid levels ridge in its east (along 95E) and the monsoon westerlies in its north, system is expected to begin recurving southwards then southeastwards. Along-track environmental conditions are expected to be rather favorable until Saturday before undergoing a strengthening northerly vertical wind shear. As system is expected to track rapidly south-eastwards at this lead time, relative wind shear aloft should be lower than expected. By the way, window's intensification is expected to finish between Saturday 12z and Sunday 06z. Considering the large size of the circulation, system is expected to intensify rather slowly and during this short window, it is expected to intensify likely up to moderate tropical storm stage or severe tropical storm stage at least if it does not suffer too early from vertical wind shear.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
15:00 PM JST April 4 2014
====================================

Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 3.1N 144.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 4.7N 141.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
SevereStudios ‏@severestudios · 26 min
Tornado Warning for Calhoun, Lafayette, Lee and Pontotoc County in MS until 3:45am CDT.

1362. barbamz
Congratulations to the UK. This was quick!

Dawlish's storm-damaged railway line reopens
BBC News, 4 April 2014 Last updated at 07:11 GMT
The main railway line through Dawlish in Devon has reopened after part of the track was destroyed during winter storms.
The track was swept away with part of the sea wall in early February, cutting off the service linking Cornwall and much of Devon with the rest of the UK.
A 300-strong Network Rail team has rebuilt the track at a cost of £35m.
At London's Paddington station, sticks of rock were given out to celebrate the line reopening.
They were labelled: "Welcome back Dawlish. The orange army has rebuilt the railway." ...
Whole article and video see link above.

SevereStudios ‏@severestudios · 2 min
Tornado Warning for Itawamba and Monroe County in MS until 4:45am CDT.

1364. barbamz
Smog expert: Worsening Saharan dust storms to become an annual Spring fixture as climate changes
The Independent, April 4, 2014
The Saharan dust storms thickening Britain's smog and coating cars from Cornwall to Aberdeen will become increasingly strong in the coming years as a "nasty mixture" of drought, development and intensive farming in North Africa pushes up air pollution, a leading dust expert warned yesterday.
The rapid population growth in Western Sahel countries such as Chad, Niger, Mali and Mauritani in the past 20 to 30 years has prompted a surge in agriculture which has greatly increased the amount of dust, Dr Robert Bryant, of Sheffield University, told The Independent.
He said there was every sign that the trend - which has also seen cars in Devon, London and Northern Ireland covered in a fine reddish-brown dust and caused breathing difficulties in asthma and chronic bronchitis sufferers - will continue.
"There has been a dramatic increase in some aspects of dust flux [emissions], which have doubled over the last 50 years. Population pressure alone is likely to exacerbate the problem and if current trends continue the amount could double again over the next 50 years," said Dr Bryant, a Reader in Dryland Processes at the University of Sheffield. ...
Whole article see link above.


Current satellite map with dust induced/related clouds over Europe.


Current Saharan dust layer over Europe. Source.


Saved current loop.


Source. Muddy rains have soiled Barcelona. According to German news (refering to the Spanish weather service) an estimated amount of 50.000 tons of Saharan dust has been rained over the region of Catalonia in Northwestern Spain.

Have a nice and safe morning, everybody abroad!
1365. LargoFl
Good Morning!.............................
1366. LargoFl
1367. hydrus
Quoting 1365. LargoFl:
Good Morning!.............................
Good morning Largo..Wind and thunder here.
1368. hydrus

!Drive Time Impacts! Currently...Strong to severe thunderstorms were moving Northeastward at 60 MPH and will impact early morning travel. Expect rainfall rates around a quarter to a half of an inch and up to 1.00 inch per hour along with damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall, deadly lightning, and isolated tornadoes possible. #nashville #middletnwx #tnwx #tspotter
1369. hydrus
We are getting severe weather here on the plateau. New cells developing and heading right at us. Wind will be a problem.
Geesh!

1371. hydrus
1372. hydrus
Quoting 1370. StormTrackerScott:
Geesh!

That wave is moving fast, the fastest I have ever seen.
1373. hydrus
Tornado warning S.E. of Nashville..

1374. hydrus

61 years of U.S. tornado tracks Via IDV Solutions and Anthony Sagliani (@anthonywx)
1376. LargoFl
1377. LargoFl
Quoting 1367. hydrus:
Good morning Largo..Wind and thunder here.
good morning hydrus,stay safe today
Quoting 1375. AussieStorm:

61 years of U.S. tornado tracks Via IDV Solutions and Anthony Sagliani (@anthonywx)


Not hard to pick out Dixie Alley and Tornado Alley as the hot spots for tornadoes.
1379. LargoFl
gee wake up SAR .this doesnt look good ......
Quoting 1379. LargoFl:
gee wake up SAR .this doesnt look good ......


Those are really just showers Largo. All the heavy action is in Tennessee, SE TX, and western LA.
1381. LargoFl
well nice weather here till next week..........
1382. LargoFl
Tornado Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 59
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

ALC009-063-065-073-119-125-041500-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.A.0059.000000T0000Z-140404T1500Z/

TORNADO WATCH 59 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

BLOUNT JEFFERSON

IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA

GREENE HALE SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BIRMINGHAM...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...
HOOVER...LIVINGSTON...MOUNDVILLE...ONEONTA...TUSC ALOOSA AND YORK.

$$
1383. Patrap
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0062
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1800Z
– States affected: LA MS GM CW
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 1025Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0061
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1500Z
– States affected: KY TN VA
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 1000Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0060
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1600Z
– States affected: LA TX GM CW
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 0835Z
TORNADO 0059
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1500Z
– States affected: AL MS TN
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 0755Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0057
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1000Z
– States affected: TX
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 0455Z
1384. ncstorm
Good Morning..



1385. ncstorm
1386. ncstorm
Dr. Forbes Torcon Index

Friday, April 4

Scattered severe thunderstorms in southeast IN, OH, southwest PA, WV, west and central VA, DC, west half NC, northwest SC, north and west GA, west FL panhandle, AL, east and south-central MS, southeast LA, middle and east TN, central and east KY. TOR:CON - 3 WV, northwest VA; 2 to 3 rest of area.
Saturday, April 5

A chance of an isolated marginally severe thunderstorm in coastal NC, coastal SC, south GA, northeast FL and east FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 1 or less. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in south TX near Brownsville and Corpus Christi and in the evening in west TX near Fort Stockton, Midland and the western TX panhandle. TOR:CON - 1 or less
Sunday, April 6

Isolated severe thunderstorms in upper-coastal TX, central and south LA, south MS. TOR:CON - 3 in south LA. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm under the upper trough in northwest, central, and southeast TX. TOR:CON - less than 2. Isolated severe thunderstorms and a chance of a tornado spread into central MS overnight. TOR:CON - 3
Monday, April 7

As a low pressure center moves northeast into the Ohio Valley, scattered severe thunderstorms in southeast IN, south OH, western WV, east KY, southwest and southeast VA, NC, SC, northeast, central, south GA, FL panhandle, north and central FL. TORCON - 4 east KY, south OH, western WV; 3 - east NC, east SC
1387. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
441 am CDT Friday Apr 4 2014

Short term...forecast is not cooperating at all. Prefrontal
squall-line that was anticipated has had very little development on
the southern end and thus no convection has moved into the County Warning Area yet and
likely wont until after sunrise. That said it has been a very
impressive squall-line moving across northern MS.

As for today...still expect scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms and rain but now we
will have to wait on the cold front and it is still well back in Texas.
At 8z it was stretching from western Illinois south-southwest through the arklatex and
into deep south Texas just west of crp. With that the risk for severe
weather will be far lower. As mentioned the previous night we had a
small window for severe storms which appeared to be b/T 6z and 15z
today but with the lack of convection on the southern end of the
squall-line we will not be able to tap into the better dynamics and
shear. Both of these features will be far lower today and we will
mainly deal with broad scale lift...the cold front...and some
instability. Moisture will be sufficient with precipitable waters over 1.5" and k
index values in the middle 30s. All of these features combined should
get rain showers and thunderstorms and rain to develop. At 9z a line of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain were
finally beginning to develop over western la and southeastern Texas and this
appears to be in response to an impulse that has come across old
Mexico and is moving through southern Texas. This line should approach the btr
area shortly after sunrise and then the 55 and 59 corridors during
the midday hours. Timing for coastal MS appears to be the afternoon hours.
Now even though the severe threat appears to be far lower we still can
not rule out a few strong storms and maybe even a rogue severe storm or
two but again the risk appears to be diminishing quickly.

The main short wave and surface low that is the culprit to the severe wxr to the
north will both continue to lift out to the NE and move into
Ontario. This will lead to almost zonal flow over the region causing
the cold front to lose its steam and stall over the coastal waters
late tonight. This front will be the focus for activity to develop
over the region beginning midday Sat. Behind this front a drier
airmass will try to work into the region and should lead to only
isolated light rain showers Friday night and early Sat.

The weekend will start off cloudy with light rain showers across the coast but
this will be short lived. Things will begin to ramp up quickly after
midday Sat with heavy rain anticipated Sat night and sun. The next
potent trough will come onshore over the West Coast tonight and by
midday Sat deepen and approach The Four Corners. This will lead to
SW flow re-establishing itself over the region with the front slowly
drifting north back to the coast. The SW flow aloft will lead to
multiple impulses coming across the area with the first possibly Sat
afternoon. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms and rain will quickly redevelop over the southern half
of the County Warning Area Sat afternoon/early evening. As we move into Sat night moisture
will continue to increase over the region with better lift moving in
leading to numerous to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms and rain. Moderate to heavy
rain will likely occur overnight leading to numerous locations
seeing around 2 to 4 inches from rain fro today through Sat night
and this will set the stage for sun where widespread heavy rain
could lead to flash flooding concerns.

On sun the trough will continue to work east into the Southern Plains
leading to cyclogenesis over the western Gulf.


This surface low will track
to NE through the afternoon and into southern la by early sun evening and western Tennessee
early Monday morning. This surface low along with middle level hght falls
through the day and night will lead to strong lift/forcing across the
region. This will combine with divergence aloft and very deep
moisture over the region. Precipitable waters will be ata 1... index values
will approach 38c...and 850 mb Theta-E values of 332-336k will pump
into the region. In addition there will be some instability to work
with as MLCAPE values approach 800 j/kg and showalters will be
around -3c. All this will lead to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms and rain which
will be very efficient rain makers. Rain alone on sun and Sun night
could approach 2 to 4 inches which with storm totals (fri-sun night)
of 4 to possibly 8 inches in some locations. A Flash Flood Watch
will likely be needed. As for strong to severe weather...severe weather
cant be ruled out but the sndg is very tropical in nature so heavy
rain should be the greatest concern sun and Sun night.
/Cab/
1388. VR46L
HRRR

Quoting 1387. Patrap:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
441 am CDT Friday Apr 4 2014

Short term...forecast is not cooperating at all. Prefrontal
squall-line that was anticipated has had very little development on
the southern end and thus no convection has moved into the County Warning Area yet and
likely wont until after sunrise. That said it has been a very
impressive squall-line moving across northern MS.

As for today...still expect scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms and rain but now we
will have to wait on the cold front and it is still well back in Texas.
At 8z it was stretching from western Illinois south-southwest through the arklatex and
into deep south Texas just west of crp. With that the risk for severe
weather will be far lower. As mentioned the previous night we had a
small window for severe storms which appeared to be b/T 6z and 15z
today but with the lack of convection on the southern end of the
squall-line we will not be able to tap into the better dynamics and
shear. Both of these features will be far lower today and we will
mainly deal with broad scale lift...the cold front...and some
instability. Moisture will be sufficient with precipitable waters over 1.5" and k
index values in the middle 30s. All of these features combined should
get rain showers and thunderstorms and rain to develop. At 9z a line of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain were
finally beginning to develop over western la and southeastern Texas and this
appears to be in response to an impulse that has come across old
Mexico and is moving through southern Texas. This line should approach the btr
area shortly after sunrise and then the 55 and 59 corridors during
the midday hours. Timing for coastal MS appears to be the afternoon hours.
Now even though the severe threat appears to be far lower we still can
not rule out a few strong storms and maybe even a rogue severe storm or
two but again the risk appears to be diminishing quickly.

The main short wave and surface low that is the culprit to the severe wxr to the
north will both continue to lift out to the NE and move into
Ontario. This will lead to almost zonal flow over the region causing
the cold front to lose its steam and stall over the coastal waters
late tonight. This front will be the focus for activity to develop
over the region beginning midday Sat. Behind this front a drier
airmass will try to work into the region and should lead to only
isolated light rain showers Friday night and early Sat.

The weekend will start off cloudy with light rain showers across the coast but
this will be short lived. Things will begin to ramp up quickly after
midday Sat with heavy rain anticipated Sat night and sun. The next
potent trough will come onshore over the West Coast tonight and by
midday Sat deepen and approach The Four Corners. This will lead to
SW flow re-establishing itself over the region with the front slowly
drifting north back to the coast. The SW flow aloft will lead to
multiple impulses coming across the area with the first possibly Sat
afternoon. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms and rain will quickly redevelop over the southern half
of the County Warning Area Sat afternoon/early evening. As we move into Sat night moisture
will continue to increase over the region with better lift moving in
leading to numerous to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms and rain. Moderate to heavy
rain will likely occur overnight leading to numerous locations
seeing around 2 to 4 inches from rain fro today through Sat night
and this will set the stage for sun where widespread heavy rain
could lead to flash flooding concerns.

On sun the trough will continue to work east into the Southern Plains
leading to cyclogenesis over the western Gulf.


This surface low will track
to NE through the afternoon and into southern la by early sun evening and western Tennessee
early Monday morning. This surface low along with middle level hght falls
through the day and night will lead to strong lift/forcing across the
region. This will combine with divergence aloft and very deep
moisture over the region. Precipitable waters will be ata 1... index values
will approach 38c...and 850 mb Theta-E values of 332-336k will pump
into the region. In addition there will be some instability to work
with as MLCAPE values approach 800 j/kg and showalters will be
around -3c. All this will lead to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms and rain which
will be very efficient rain makers. Rain alone on sun and Sun night
could approach 2 to 4 inches which with storm totals (fri-sun night)
of 4 to possibly 8 inches in some locations. A Flash Flood Watch
will likely be needed. As for strong to severe weather...severe weather
cant be ruled out but the sndg is very tropical in nature so heavy
rain should be the greatest concern sun and Sun night. /Cab/


The real event starts Sunday for you and then moves into FL Monday thru Tuesday. Very interested in the weather here in C FL Monday afternoon as temps are expected to be in the low 90's with dewpoints rising into the low to mid 70's. Cape should be off the charts in FL late Monday.
Quoting 1364. barbamz:

Smog expert: Worsening Saharan dust storms to become an annual Spring fixture as climate changes
The Independent, April 4, 2014
The Saharan dust storms thickening Britain's smog and coating cars from Cornwall to Aberdeen will become increasingly strong in the coming years as a "nasty mixture" of drought, development and intensive farming in North Africa pushes up air pollution, a leading dust expert warned yesterday.
The rapid population growth in Western Sahel countries such as Chad, Niger, Mali and Mauritani in the past 20 to 30 years has prompted a surge in agriculture which has greatly increased the amount of dust, Dr Robert Bryant, of Sheffield University, told The Independent.
He said there was every sign that the trend - which has also seen cars in Devon, London and Northern Ireland covered in a fine reddish-brown dust and caused breathing difficulties in asthma and chronic bronchitis sufferers - will continue.
"There has been a dramatic increase in some aspects of dust flux [emissions], which have doubled over the last 50 years. Population pressure alone is likely to exacerbate the problem and if current trends continue the amount could double again over the next 50 years," said Dr Bryant, a Reader in Dryland Processes at the University of Sheffield. ...
Whole article see link above.

">
Current satellite map with dust induced/related clouds over Europe.


Current Saharan dust layer over Europe. Source.



" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">
Source. Muddy rains have soiled Barcelona. According to German news (refering to the Spanish weather service) an estimated amount of 50.000 tons of Saharan dust has been rained over the region of Catalonia in Northwestern Spain.

Have a nice and safe morning, everybody abroad!


Wow...Go Network Rail. they've been very bashed in the past for shoddy maintenance and taking ages for works, so not bad at all that really.

I took the bait to try the beta...well, tried on main pc last night, but didn't do anything LOL that one still just has IE, so dunno if cause of that. So tried it on laptop with Chrome and it all worked. Only thing I don't like, is I prefer the comments being boxed in, it's weird just having them with a line between. But I like the new look and my new home page with the weather graph

edit* ooof, didn't think it was going to repost photos, note to self when quoting LOL hopefully took them out...all but one, will do anyway :D
Good Morning.  A couple of tornado warnings at the moment in LA.  And a question for our Florida and Gulf Coast bloggers.

Living in Florida, and in North Florida for the last 13 years, I have noticed that "most" of the strongest tornadoes that spin up in this State, including during past moderate or high risk alerts, occur in the Spring (during the typical spring severe weather period) and usually in the afternoon.  Typically if a Spring squall line happens to pass through between Noon and the early evening which tends to correspond to peak heating periods.  And once in a while, but usually the exception, you might have an overnight threat.

Is this typical for other Gulf States as well (or a different take from Florida or the Gulf)?

Thanks in Advance.
Here is the current WPC forecast for Conus; not expecting an organized  severe weather threat for the SE/Gulf/Florida today:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2014

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 04 2014 - 12Z Sun Apr 06 2014

...Severe thunderstorms possible on Friday for parts of the Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys into the Southeast...

...Heavy snow possible for parts of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes on Friday...


The very vigorous upper level system which brought severe weather, heavy
rain, and flash flooding to parts of the nations midsection yesterday and
overnight will continue to push quickly eastward as the low pressure at
the surface deepens and moves across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this
morning. Plenty of moisture and instability ahead of this system will
result in widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms from the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley on Friday. The Storm Prediction
center has highlighted an area for a slight risk of severe weather for
parts of the referenced area above. Please refer to the SPC web page for
more details. The showers and thunderstorms will spread into the East
Coast states by the afternoon and evening hours on Friday, but severe
weather and flooding rains are not expected to be much of a threat.
On
Saturday evening, the southern portion of the front in the Gulf of Mexico
is forecast to shift northward as a warm front which should increase the
threat for heavy rain for parts of the Gulf Coast states overnight
Saturday and into Sunday.



Quoting 1392. weathermanwannabe:
Here is the current WPC forecast for Conus; not expecting an organized severe weather threat for the SE/Gulf/Florida today:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2014

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 04 2014 - 12Z Sun Apr 06 2014

...Severe thunderstorms possible on Friday for parts of the Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys into the Southeast...

...Heavy snow possible for parts of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes on Friday...


The very vigorous upper level system which brought severe weather, heavy
rain, and flash flooding to parts of the nations midsection yesterday and
overnight will continue to push quickly eastward as the low pressure at
the surface deepens and moves across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this
morning. Plenty of moisture and instability ahead of this system will
result in widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms from the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley on Friday. The Storm Prediction
center has highlighted an area for a slight risk of severe weather for
parts of the referenced area above. Please refer to the SPC web page for
more details. The showers and thunderstorms will spread into the East
Coast states by the afternoon and evening hours on Friday, but severe
weather and flooding rains are not expected to be much of a threat.
On
Saturday evening, the southern portion of the front in the Gulf of Mexico
is forecast to shift northward as a warm front which should increase the
threat for heavy rain for parts of the Gulf Coast states overnight
Saturday and into Sunday.





Nope not until Monday for us. Until then very hot especially across the Penisula. 90's have arrived for us.
1394. LargoFl
GFS Changed scott may be right..noon Tuesday might get rough here..
1395. barbamz
Europe once again calling, lol. Boy, look at the weird cloud top temperatures loop below. These clouds aren't thunderstorms (Mesoscale convective systems), just dust related stuff (more post #1364):


Temperature of cloudtops.


Precipitation and lightning (no correlation with the cold cloud tops).

Very warm and dump outside. 23C = 74,4F on my balcony midtown. People are sweltering.


Saved cloud temp image.

Quoting 1393. StormTrackerScott:


Nope not until Monday for us. Until then very hot especially across the Penisula. 90's have arrived for us.

We will have to wait until Monday so see how much moisture in in the air and how much of a rain shield develops; as well as the relative position of the jet if it can position over Florida.  Here is the current position as of this morning; not even close to Florida:


1397. LargoFl
UKMET for Moday..........................
Quoting 1391. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning.  A couple of tornado warnings at the moment in LA.  And a question for our Florida and Gulf Coast bloggers.

Living in Florida, and in North Florida for the last 13 years, I have noticed that "most" of the strongest tornadoes that spin up in this State, including during past moderate or high risk alerts, occur in the Spring (during the typical spring severe weather period) and usually in the afternoon.  Typically if a Spring squall line happens to pass through between Noon and the early evening which tends to correspond to peak heating periods.  And once in a while, but usually the exception, you might have an overnight threat.

Is this typical for other Gulf States as well (or a different take from Florida or the Gulf)?

Thanks in Advance.



I think the forming of EL Nino is play a big roll in FL weather this year this would be FL driest time of the year but I think they been seeing well above normal rain fall thanks two are forming EL Nino
1399. LargoFl
2nd wave comes sunday................
my wife and i have lived in e. cen florida 50 yrs now. we went down to the water a few minutes ago for a walk there has been no increases in water levels. weathers the same too. spring time is nice around her but summer sucks too hot
1401. LargoFl
1402. LargoFl
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
3 hours ago
Magnitude: 5.4
DateTime: 2014-04-04 04:52:07
Region: San Juan, Argentina
Depth: 86
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed
Quoting 1396. weathermanwannabe:


We will have to wait until Monday so see how much moisture in in the air and how much of a rain shield develops; as well as the relative position of the jet if it can position over Florida.  Here is the current position as of this morning; not even close to Florida:




Monday Night here.

Quoting 1398. Tazmanian:



I think the forming of EL Nino is play a big roll in FL weather this year this would be FL driest time of the year but I think they been seeing well above normal rain fall thanks two are forming EL Nino


Driest time of the year for FL and it will be anything but dry this month.

Have to get come work done.  Will check back later.
1406. Torito
Tropical Depression 5 spinning in the WPAC.

Quoting 1404. StormTrackerScott:



Driest time of the year for FL and it will be anything but dry this month.




I hop this is the same for CA for later in the fall and winter
1408. Torito
97P: the next cat 1?



1409. Torito
Quoting 1407. Tazmanian:


I hop this is the same for CA for later in the fall and winter


Morning, Taz... Have some coffee.


1410. Torito
Line of storms moving through the south east right now..

1412. Torito
Up towards the Mid east:

1413. Torito
Slowly moving up into the north east.

1414. Torito
Just keep spinning...

1415. Torito
12 hour forecast.
Quoting 1370. StormTrackerScott:
Geesh!



I think some pretty drastic atmospheric patterns would have to change in hurry to put any kind of dent in what is about to come. That is a great deal of energy sitting down there and it has to disperse somehow. Those positive anomalies have done nothing but expand eastward in area and intensity for the last month and a half. Should be interesting to see what it's like by the end of the month.
Quoting 1370. StormTrackerScott:
Geesh!



This would seem to explain the warming in regions 1, 2, and 3 the last couple of days. The front edge of that monster is finally surfacing.
1419. ncstorm
New Outlook







SPC AC 041257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS/OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT MID/UPR MS VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE TO
UPR MI LATER TODAY AND TO THE ONT-QUE BORDER EARLY SAT. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM ASSUMES A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX NOW OVER MO MOVING NE INTO
IL/IND. FARTHER S...SEASONABLY STRONG...SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC
SUB-TROPICAL JET SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY N ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND LWR
MS VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LWR LVLS...OCCLUDED SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ACROSS MI AND LK HURON...WHILE A TRIPLE POINT
WAVE EVOLVES IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THE LATTER LOW
SHOULD MOVE NE TO CAPE COD BY 12Z SAT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE S ATLANTIC CSTL PLN.

...CNTRL GULF CST STATES TO OH VLY TODAY...
SQLN NOW ARCING FROM ERN KY/ERN TN SWWD INTO LA IS LARGELY
PRE-FRONTAL. EXCEPT OVER LA AND MS...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS
OUT-RUN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE GULF CST STATES
WILL BE NEUTRAL AT BEST AS MID MS VLY TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD.
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE MAY...HOWEVER...PERSIST OVER
THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTN IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING
SUB-TROPICAL JET.

STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG THE SQLN GUST
FRONT AMIDST MODERATELY STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY LOW TO
MID-LVL FLOW MAY FOSTER A FEW STORMS/EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND OR SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN PARTS OF LA AND
MS TODAY. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD...HOWEVER...GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE MEAN WINDS SUBSIDE AND DIURNAL COOLING STABILIZES REGION.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/UPR OH VLY TODAY...
LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SE KY/FAR ERN TN
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER
TODAY...SUPPORTED BY 50-60 KT 700-500 MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH JET
STREAK ROUNDING SE FLANK OF MS VLY UPR TROUGH. WHILE LOW-LVL
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS NOTABLY DRIED COMPARED TO
REGION UPSTREAM THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRAVERSED
OVERNIGHT...MODERATE SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF WV AND VA
LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...SETUP MAY
CONTINUE TO FOSTER A FEW EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG
WIND.

FARTHER N...POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A SPORADIC DMGG GUST OR TWO
OVER NRN OH...IND...AND LWR MI...DESPITE STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT/DCVA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH.

...S TX THIS MORNING...
WDLY SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
DEEP S TX...WHERE RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND SOMEWHAT
CONFLUENT...SLIGHTLY UPSLOPE LOW-LVL FLOW WILL LINGER AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOSTERED BY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES /DEEP EML/...AND POSSIBLY BY
ENHANCED VENTILATION INVOF STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET. ANY SVR THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS UNDERCUTTING BY COOL/DRY POST-FRONTAL
AIR CAUSES STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

..CORFIDI/JIRAK.. 04/04/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
Quoting 1416. ILwthrfan:


I think some pretty drastic atmospheric patterns would have to change in hurry to put any kind of dent in what is about to come. That is a great deal of energy sitting down there and it has to disperse somehow. Those positive anomalies have done nothing but expand eastward in area and intensity for the last month and a half. Should be interesting to see what it's like by the end of the month.


It seems to be moving much faster and much stronger compared to some of the other el-nino's we have experienced over the last several decades.
Getting a few thundershowers this morning :-)

1423. Patrap
Quoting 1364. barbamz:
Smog expert: Worsening Saharan dust storms to become an annual Spring fixture as climate changes
The Independent, April 4, 2014
The Saharan dust storms thickening Britain's smog and coating cars from Cornwall to Aberdeen will become increasingly strong in the coming years as a "nasty mixture" of drought, development and intensive farming in North Africa pushes up air pollution, a leading dust expert warned yesterday.
The rapid population growth in Western Sahel countries such as Chad, Niger, Mali and Mauritani in the past 20 to 30 years has prompted a surge in agriculture which has greatly increased the amount of dust, Dr Robert Bryant, of Sheffield University, told The Independent.
He said there was every sign that the trend - which has also seen cars in Devon, London and Northern Ireland covered in a fine reddish-brown dust and caused breathing difficulties in asthma and chronic bronchitis sufferers - will continue.
"There has been a dramatic increase in some aspects of dust flux [emissions], which have doubled over the last 50 years. Population pressure alone is likely to exacerbate the problem and if current trends continue the amount could double again over the next 50 years," said Dr Bryant, a Reader in Dryland Processes at the University of Sheffield. ...
Whole article see link above.


Current satellite map with dust induced/related clouds over Europe.


Current Saharan dust layer over Europe. Source.


Saved current loop.


Source. Muddy rains have soiled Barcelona. According to German news (refering to the Spanish weather service) an estimated amount of 50.000 tons of Saharan dust has been rained over the region of Catalonia in Northwestern Spain.

Have a nice and safe morning, everybody abroad!



2014, the Year the Forcing's fight Back.

Here comes the MJO. You can tell too as the GFS is looking mighty wet across FL the second half of April.

^ Both 97P and 05W seem likely to contribute to another westerly windburst, lined up like they are on either side of the equator, with an MJO pulse entering the area soon.
1426. Patrap
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0062
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1800Z
– States affected: LA MS GM CW
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 1025Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0061
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1500Z
– States affected: KY TN VA
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 1000Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0060
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1600Z
– States affected: LA TX GM CW
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 0835Z
Quoting 1417. TimSoCal:



This would seem to explain the warming in regions 1, 2, and 3 the last couple of days. The front edge of that monster is finally surfacing.


Good morning!

I'm just keeping this image on my screen, it's making me smile. I know it is intense but if it presages a rich hit of rain and snowpack for next fall-winter, it will do people here a lot of good.

I just finished reading "Blood of the Earth" by John Michael Greer, an exploration of the psychology of the Climate Change disputes from a Western Occult philosophical viewpoint. If that sounds odd, it works really well. It makes a good companion reader to Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs &Steel" and "Collapse."

Oh and while I like the beta look and smartphone readability, when I click on the usual spot to expand pre-collapsed comments, it just takes me back to the top of the comment section. Maybe I am missing something. (Using chrome browser)
1428. ricderr
seems to be moving much faster and much stronger compared to some of the other el-nino's we have experienced over the last several decades.



not according to the graphs
1429. hydrus
Long way out, but a big rain event.
1430. Patrap
Quoting 1428. ricderr:
seems to be moving much faster and much stronger compared to some of the other el-nino's we have experienced over the last several decades.



not according to the graphs


It's ahead of 1997 and 1982. Clarification "at this point in time this Kelvin Wave is stronger".
I just find it amazing that you can have this high of warm water anomalies move from west to east beneath the sea surface. I guess its a way of Mother Nature balancing things out. Naga5000 said it best it's Mother Nature's way of letting out a big burp.
1433. dabirds
How much did you end up w/ ILwther? Dumped another .5" this a.m. for 4" total. All the creeks full, but no real bad flooding, spread out enough over the two and half days and frost line down enough we soaked most of it up. Severe stayed south too.
Quoting 1428. ricderr:
seems to be moving much faster and much stronger compared to some of the other el-nino's we have experienced over the last several decades.



not according to the graphs


What other analogs had that large of an area of +5 C anomalies?
1435. hydrus
Quoting 1431. StormTrackerScott:


It's ahead of 1997 and 1982. Clarification "at this point in time this Kelvin Wave is stronger".
The 82-83 El-Nino was brutal. I was living in S.W.Florida then, huge lows would form in the Western Gulf and strengthen big time with the subtropical jet feeding huge amounts of energy into it. They were fairly slow movers. We had a three day gale, and it was a rough time for folks that live aboard. We had the No Name Storm in June of 82. That was a wild ride I will never forget.
1436. ricderr
at this point in time this Kelvin Wave is stronger".


why yes....i agree with that revision


as for 1997...it's about three weeks faster at this point...but was slower at others...which i believe is directly contributed to the upwelling of the kelvin wave....with the kelvin wave being stronger...with the buildup of heat in the ocean depths over the past decade...and the fact that ocean temperatures were higher in respect to average sst's at the beginning of this event than in many other past episodes is why i believe we will see el nino be declared


but it is strikingly similar to 2012...the non el nino, el nino year.....

not that i expect the outcome to be the same
1437. JNTenne
Storms came in 7 hours slower than anticipated.. hit us at 5am instead of midnight so got some sleep which is a GOOD THING!
Here's the gray skies hanging overhead now.. should be clearing in a little bit.. Only heard of a couple of barns over to the south, probably straight line and not a twister. HAPPY FRIDAY!
Quoting 1433. dabirds:
How much did you end up w/ ILwther? Dumped another .5" this a.m. for 4" total. All the creeks full, but no real bad flooding, spread out enough over the two and half days and frost line down enough we soaked most of it up. Severe stayed south too.


Seen you had a couple tornado warnings down there yesterday as well. I had 1.5" over 2.5 days. Just the right amount really for a nice green up if we can ever get the sun and warmth out up here. Coldest winter and early spring I have been apart of in my 31 years of youth anyways. I had 45" of snow this year with about 12 overnight lows well below zero. I think we had -7 to -10 C temperature anomalies for most of the winter here. It looks to continue as well. I wouldn't be surprised if we get an Indian Summer around here.

1439. ncstorm
Quoting 1432. StormTrackerScott:
I just find it amazing that you can have this high of warm water anomalies move from west to east beneath the sea surface. I guess its a way of Mother Nature balancing things out. Naga5000 said it best it's Mother Nature's way of letting out a big burp.


Mother Nature needs some Tums..
1440. LargoFl
Quoting 1435. hydrus:
The 82-83 El-Nino was brutal. I was living in S.W.Florida then, huge lows would form in the Western Gulf and strengthen big time with the subtropical jet feeding huge amounts of energy into it. They were fairly slow movers. We had a three day gale, and it was a rough time for folks that live aboard. We had the No Name Storm in June of 82. That was a wild ride I will never forget.
yes i remember that year also..guess this year we surely will have to watch the gulf once again.
1441. LargoFl
1442. LargoFl
Beautiful beach day here..dont forget the sunscreen...
1443. ricderr
El Niño tests forecasters
As hints emerge of a major weather event this year, poor data could thwart attempts to improve predictions.

Jeff Tollefson
02 April 2014
Article tools
PDFRights & Permissions
The first sign of a brewing El Niño weather pattern came in January, as trade winds that normally blow from the east reversed course near Papua New Guinea. Barrelling back across the tropical Pacific Ocean, they began to push warm water towards South America. Now climate scientists and forecasters are on high alert.


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A major El Niño event — a periodic warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific — could boost temperatures and scramble weather worldwide. The most recent major event, in 1997–98, was linked to thousands of deaths and tens of billions of dollars in damage from droughts, fires and floods across several continents. Yet more than 15 years later, forecasting the timing and intensity of El Niño remains tricky, with incremental improvements in climate models threatened by the partial collapse of an ocean-monitoring system that delivers the data to feed those models.

El Niño often emerges during the Northern Hemisphere summer and peaks around December; forecast models can do a reasonable job of predicting its eventual strength by July, when the changes in ocean circulation that give rise to the weather pattern have become pronounced. But scientists are working feverishly to provide earlier forecasts, to allow govern­ments more time to prepare for potentially devastating weather patterns.

In 1997, the emergence of a record-breaking El Niño caught scientists by surprise, despite hints in wind and sea surface temperature data (see ‘Warming up’). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK, was reluctant to issue early warnings because its forecast model was untested. And the model that had best predicted earlier El Niños — developed by scientists at Columbia University’s Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York — foresaw neutral conditions.

“We were in the early days in forecasting,” says Michael McPhaden, an oceanographer at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Seattle, Washington. “Now we are much more systematic.”


Source: NOAA
Expand
This year, NOAA issued its first forecast on 6 March, estimating a 50% chance that El Niño will develop this summer. But that early projection, and others from weather agencies and research institutions around the world, comes with lots of uncertainty. Fickle tropical winds in spring can easily quash a brewing El Niño — or strengthen it.

Researchers say that real progress in forecasting has come from systematically comparing the outputs of groups of models, with each simulation run under a range of possible climate conditions. “Combining these various predictions — doing some crowd-sourcing, if you will — tends to lead to more reliable predictions,” says Gabriel Vecchi, a climate modeller at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey. Averaging the results of several different forecasting models tends to cancel out flaws in an individual program, he says.

“Fickle tropical winds can easily quash a brewing El Niño — or strengthen it.”
The sensitivity of the simulations is also increasing. Global climate models divide the planet into grids, like a computer screen divided into pixels, and represent climate variables such as temperature as averages in each cell. Modellers increase the resolution of their calculations by reducing the size of the cells. Vecchi’s lab, for example, has shifted its model from a grid with cells 200 kilo­metres across to one with cells 50 kilo­metres across, thereby increasing the number of cells by a factor of 16. In theory, this allows for more-accurate representations of the microphysical processes and interactions that drive weather and ultimately climate. Forecasters also continuously fine-tune how they incorporate environmental-monitoring data and represent complex inter­actions between air and ocean circulation.

During the spring, when forecasting is most difficult, such improvements have given climate models based on physical processes a leg-up over less sophisticated statistical models, which compare the current weather-system trends to those of past years and essentially estimate the likelihood that history will repeat itself.

Almost all of this year’s initial forecasts suggest that a moderate to severe El Niño or neutral conditions will emerge in coming months. None predicts El Niño’s sister effect, La Niña, in which upwelling currents from the deep ocean bring cooler waters to the surface off the Pacific coast of South America.

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Frequency of extreme El Niños to double as globe warms
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In the coming weeks, scientists will watch to see if warm water continues to flow across the Pacific into the area off South America where El Niño forms. But in a potential blow to the ongoing effort to improve forecast accuracy, their ocean-temperature data will get progressively worse. A US-funded system of data-gathering buoys known as the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array has started to break down as a result of budget cuts that have hobbled its maintenance (see Nature http://doi.org/q72; 2014). NOAA has committed to restoring most of the system by the end of the year, but that aid will come months after crucial El Niño forecasts are issued. Scientists will be forced to supplement the buoy data with satellite observations of water temperature and sea level, which can serve as proxies for the depth of the wave of warm water.

The stakes are high. Since 1998, the eastern Pacific has been in a cold phase that is associated with La Niña-like conditions, but every 15–30 years, as part of a cycle known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, that trend flips. Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, has theorized that a major El Niño could help to push the ocean back into a warm phase, which studies have linked to more frequent El Niños and more rapid global warming (see Nature 505, 276–278; 2014).

But all of that depends on what happens as warm water washes across the Pacific in the next couple of months. “The system is primed,” says Trenberth. “Will it wimp out or really take off
1444. hydrus




N-I-C-E
1447. hydrus
Quoting 1440. LargoFl:
yes i remember that year also..guess this year we surely will have to watch the gulf once again.
I am curious if the Nino gets super strong, will it produce giant low pressure areas like back then, I am currently searching to find sat pics of some of the storms. I have books in storage that have those images. I actually lost some rare and precious books in 1985 when Tropical Storm Bob hit S.W. FL. They were in the trunk of my car, heavy rain caused a serious flooding event and flooded my Cutlass. By the time I got home, the mold was all over them, and it took months for me to get the moldy smell out of my vehicle.
1448. LargoFl
Quoting 1447. hydrus:
I am curious if the Nino gets super strong, will it produce giant low pressure areas like back then, I am currently searching to find sat pics of some of the storms. I have books in storage that have those images. I actually lost some rare and precious books in 1985 when Tropical Storm Bob hit S.W. FL. They were in the trunk of my car, heavy rain caused a serious flooding event and flooded my Cutlass. By the time I got home, the mold was all over them, and it took months for me to get the moldy smell out of my vehicle.
yes we'll have to stay alert this season i guess..gee hope nothing real bad here....tampa..upgrade those shields lol
1449. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAY CONTAIN STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
1450. LargoFl
im glad florida doesnt get any of these wow....
1451. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
LAZ036-037-039-046>050-071-072-MSZ069>071-041545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
949 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AFFECTING AMITE COUNTY...
WALTHALL COUNTY...ASCENSION PARISH...WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH...ST.
HELENA PARISH...EAST FELICIANA PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...
LIVINGSTON PARISH...IBERVILLE PARISH...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...PIKE COUNTY...WASHINGTON PARISH...

AT 942 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCCOMB TO PLAQUEMINE...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...MCCOMB...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PRAIRIEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...GONZALES...TYLERTOWN...AND HAMMOND.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

$$
1452. barbamz
Sahara over my head in Germany:

Photo of the dusty sun I took a couple of minutes ago from my balcony. I didn't change colors, just lowered a bit of the illumination to show the structure of the clouds.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The regional impacts (across parts of the Globe), for any particular Enso phase are well documented and particularly visible across Conus (adjacent to the Pacific).  Extended rain/flooding or drought for certain areas as well as the trajectory of winter and spring lows.  Getting "stuck" in any particular phase for an extended period of time can cause havoc.
We have been in enso neutral conditions for the past two years, so we have had a mixed bag of weather and storm trajectories across Conus recently (and the polar jet issue this winter).  However, prolonged El Nino or La Nina periods can really benefit or hurt a particular region of the US depending on where the need or danger lies.
Have to see how long the coming El Nino will last as the effects will be with us going into the Spring of 2015 long after the upcoming hurricane season ends.    
Lucky you Cariboy here is bone dry which is very unusual normally this month would be one of the most wettest months

Looks like by day 10 we should start getting wetter



1456. sar2401
Quoting hydrus:
The 82-83 El-Nino was brutal. I was living in S.W.Florida then, huge lows would form in the Western Gulf and strengthen big time with the subtropical jet feeding huge amounts of energy into it. They were fairly slow movers. We had a three day gale, and it was a rough time for folks that live aboard. We had the No Name Storm in June of 82. That was a wild ride I will never forget.

Brutal in California also, with the worst flooding in history. It did, however, finally break the back of a multiyear drought. I spent three days bobbing around in one of our inflatable rescue boats plucking people off roofs. I thought that was the worst I'd ever see in my lifetime...until 1986 came along...but that's another story.

Our system if finally creeping toward SE Alabama and is looking about as wimpy as if can get and still be called a system. It looks like all rain now and no convection at all. We are getting a little sun, with a temperature of 71 with a dewpoint of 68, so there's plenty of moist air, but just not enough instability, unless something happens in the next hour or so. If not, I'll still take the rain, and hope Sunday isn't any worse.
1457. hydrus
GFS still has a strong low over Mid TN. Wind may be a problem.
Quoting 1456. sar2401:


Brutal in California also, with the worst flooding in history. It did, however, finally break the back of a multiyear drought. I spent three days bobbing around in one of our inflatable rescue boats plucking people off roofs. I thought that was the worst I'd ever see in my lifetime...until 1986 came along...but that's another story.

Our system if finally creeping toward SE Alabama and is looking about as wimpy as if can get and still be called a system. It looks like all rain now and no convection at all. We are getting a little sun, with a temperature of 71 with a dewpoint of 68, so there's plenty of moist air, but just not enough instability, unless something happens in the next hour or so. If not, I'll still take the rain, and hope Sunday isn't any worse.


Yes, I think was round the time there were torrential floods throughout the Coachella Valley. Our house fared well, casue of the rock wall surrounding it...though it inundated neighbors a few houses down who didn't have the rock wall too. Been looking what it would mean for the UK. All info found so far, doesn't include any info for UK El Nino seasons

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