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California’s Water Supply for 2016: Context is Everything

By: Bob Henson 4:15 PM GMT on April 04, 2016

The pivotal end-of-March snow survey results are in from California’s Sierra Nevada--and whether the results are good or bad depends largely on your point of view. The current snowpack is about average when viewed from long-term climatology, bountiful against the backdrop of four years of punishing drought, and paltry next to what other “super” El Niño events have produced. Manual measurement on March 30 at Phillips Station, near Echo Summit (elevation 7382 feet), found that the snow water equivalent--the amount of water held in the soggy 58.4-inch snowpack--was 26 inches, or 97% of the long-term average for the date. Manual readings are collected each month at Phillips Station, largely as a ceremonial exercise and media event, with the end-of-March numbers closely watched because the snowpack typically peaks in late winter or early spring. A much more comprehensive picture of snowpack emerges from daily monitoring by more than 100 automated snow gauges across the entire Sierra Nevada. As of March 30, the statewide snow water equivalent was 24.4 inches, or 87% of average for the date. The percentage was down to 82% as of Monday.


Figure 1. What a difference a year makes: the Sierra snow survey being conducted at the Phillips course on April 1, 2015 (left), with California governor Jerry Brown, and on March 30, 2016, with Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the California Department of Water Resources. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources (left); AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli (right).

The two states of California, drought edition
There is no question that California’s water supplies are in far better shape now than a year ago. The April 1, 2015, snow survey took place on bare ground (Figure 1), with no snow at all present. Statewide, the snow content was only 5% of average, the lowest value since records began in 1950. Water supply agencies across the state faced their first-ever mandatory water restrictions in 2015. This February, the state water board extended those restrictions through October, although they will be re-evaluated later this month. Some users aren’t waiting. Citing the above-average water levels of Folsom Lake, the San Juan Water District has removed water restrictions for its 160,000 customers in central California as of March 23. The district is now calling only for a 10% voluntary reduction rather than the state-mandated 33% reduction.

Meanwhile, as of March 17, agricultural users in California are projected to receive 30% of water requested from the State Water Project supply this year. This compares to 20% in 2015 and 0% in 2014. Despite the improvement, we can expect many farmers and ranchers to continue drawing from California’s largely unregulated groundwater, a practice that has led to subsidence so dramatic--up to 2 inches per month in some areas--that it is detectable by NASA satellites.


Figure 2. Percent of average precipitation for the 180-day period from 12Z October 6, 2015, to April 3, 2016. For the Pacific states, the water year is commonly measured starting on October 1. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Where it’s been wet
The 2015-16 El Niño has produced buckets of rain and snow; it’s just that they’ve fallen a few hundred miles north of where one might have expected. Precipitation this winter has broken all-time records in Seattle (43.33” from October through March, already just a half-inch away from setting an October-April record). As seen in Figure 2, it’s been considerably wetter than average in far northern California and slightly above average through much of the San Francisco-to-Reno corridor. An unusually large fraction of northern California’s rain and snow either fell as rain or melted during midwinter warm spells, which has led to healthy replenishment of the state’s large northern reservoirs.

Toward Los Angeles and San Diego, the winter’s moisture has been much more disappointing. Los Angeles is currently sitting just below half of its typical total rainfall for the water year to date, with a mere 6.59” recorded from October 1 through April 3. The four climatologically wettest months of the year--December through March--actually came in drier for downtown L.A. in 2015-16 than in 2014-15 (6.13” vs. 6.67”). Late-summer rains helped give a boost to the full water-year totals if we extend them back to July 1, as noted by Chris Burt in his recent round-up of March and water-year precipitation across California. (The U.S. Geological Survey defines October 1 as the water-year start nationwide, but there are variations across California.) From this point into summer, a typical water year produces another 1.5” or so in Los Angeles and another 1” or so in San Diego. With models suggesting that an active subtropical jet stream will move into Southern California next week, it’s quite possible April will end up wetter than average--although L.A. would need close to its wettest April and/or May on record just to have a shot at an average water year for 2015-16.

The caveats of probability
Because there have been so few strong El Niños in modern records (1950 onward), and only two “super” events (1982-83 and 1997-98), experts stressed that a wet winter in California was highly probable but not guaranteed. The biggest surprise is that Southern California got the short end of the stick, as strong El Niños tend to be most reliably wet toward the south. In a study led by Andrew Hoell (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory), published in Geophysical Research Letters in January, a multimodel ensemble of climate simulations keying off a century’s worth of data found that strong El Niño events significantly raise the odds of a wetter-than-average year statewide, but particularly across Southern California. The study found a more-than-90% chance of getting above-average precipitation in Southern California during a strong El Niño, which we’ve had in place this winter.

We should see this winter’s SoCal outcome juxtaposed against Hoell’s study as a reminder that even unlikely events do happen, a point emphasized by NOAA seasonal forecasters last month. “The results for 1982-83 and 1997-98 were probabilistic,” Hoell told me in an email this morning. Within the 130 simulations of the period 1979-2014 carried out for his study, Hoell added, “there were model simulations for 1982-83 and 1997-98 that resulted in exactly the same precipitation patterns that we saw this season. Assuming 1982-83 and 1997-98 are appropriate analogs (which is up for debate) then this event fell within the realm of possibility.” Preliminary model-based studies by Hoell and colleagues suggest this winter’s sea-surface temperature anomalies from El Niño were not as effective as those in 1982-83 and 1997-98 in generating wet conditions in California. It will be fascinating to see what insights emerge from the data collected by the El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign, which spanned much of the February-March period that left Southern California largely high and dry.

The surprising aridity of the last few weeks has extended well into the Southwest U.S. Phoenix hasn’t seen a drop of measurable rain since January 31, although the city is a long way from its record-long dry stretch (160 days, set in 1972). Near Las Vegas, Lake Mead has recorded its lowest water levels for any January, February, and March since the lake was filled in the late 1930s. Further up the Colorado River, Lake Powell was at just 46% of full capacity on March 17. The snowpack upstream was at 94% of average, reflecting heavier winter snowfall in southwest Colorado than in neighboring areas.


Figure 3. The ruins of the Hannig Ice Cream Parlor are shown in the ghost town of St. Thomas on August 3, 2015, in the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Nevada. The town was founded in 1865 by Mormon pioneers at the site where the Muddy River flowed into the Colorado River. At one point, it had about 500 settlers. The town was abandoned in 1938 after the construction of the Hoover Dam caused the Colorado River to rise. The area was once submerged in 60 feet of water but became entirely exposed as severe drought over the last 15 years has caused Lake Mead to drop to historic low levels. Image credit: Ethan Miller/Getty Images.


Figure 4. Departures from average in the height of the 500-mb surface for the three months from January through March 2016. The northeast Pacific is dominated by upper-level troughing (purple)--typical of an El Niño winter--while hints of a weak ridge (yellow) extend from the eastern tropical Pacific through the southwestern United States. Image credit: NOAA/ESL/PSD Map Room.

How California is going to extremes: a new analysis
A paper published last weekend in Science Advances shows that the upper-level features that drive California’s highly variable water-year precipitation have trended toward greater extremes in recent decades, with the patterns leading to dry years on the increase while wet patterns have held steady (or perhaps even increased as well). Led by Daniel Swain (Stanford University), the study analyzes October-to-May circulation patterns over the northeast Pacific for the years 1949 through 2015, examining how each water year compares to the five wettest, driest, coolest, and warmest. One ominous signal is a robust increase in the strength and persistence of upper-level ridging along the West Coast. The most dramatic recent example is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) that helped intensify California’s drought and record warmth. The RRR is gone, at least for the time being, but a lower-key, lower-latitude version may have played a role in this winter’s Southwestern dryness.

“It is definitely interesting that this winter featured some relatively subtle but persistent subtropical ridging between California and Hawaii,” Swain said in an email. “This is what kept Southern California so unexpectedly dry during this very strong El Nino winter, and prevented Northern California from being even wetter than it was.” Swain added: “Even though there were many more periods of active storminess in Northern California this winter than during recent drought winters, there were still some remarkably, unusually long stretches of dry and inactive weather caused by full-latitude West Coast ridging--even if it lacked the "resilience" of the RRR.”

The full paper is available through open access at Science Advances. There’s also a summary at the California Weather Blog. We’ll be back with a new post by Wednesday at the latest. Meanwhile, if you’re in the Midwest or Northeast, bundle up--it looks like a very chilly week ahead. Millions of people are under freeze warnings that extend across much of the Ohio Valley and a large chunk of the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C., to New York.

Bob Henson

El Niño Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"Despite the improvement, we can expect many farmers and ranchers to continue drawing from California’s largely unregulated groundwater, a practice that has led to subsidence so dramatic--up to 2 inches per month in some areas--that it is detectable by NASA satellites."

I suspect this is the core problem going forward, even if we somehow better predict the variation in annual rain/snowfall for planners (urban and farm).
Thanks dok henson!
Thanks Mr. Henson; currently, that general pattern of ridging near Hawaii and the rain missing SoCal to the North and South is still in place but there is some moisture heading towards Central CA and the Sierras:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor





Last Month Was The Hottest March In The Global Satellite Record, And The Arctic Is Still Sizzling

Last month was the hottest March on record, according to newly-released satellite data. And it followed the hottest February on record.

The Arctic was literally off-the-charts warm last month, as we’ll see. It’s no surprise, then, that Arctic sea ice set a record for the lowest maximum extent.

First, the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) data shows that in March the lower troposphere (the lowest part of the atmosphere) was a remarkable 1.3°F (0.73°C) above the historical (1981-2010) average, a baseline that is already some 0.8°F (0.45°C) hotter than pre-industrial levels.


Link
Here is a groundwater depletion map for the US from USGS (and the link) showing the depletion patterns/use from 1900-2008; easy to see on this map where some of the major US agriculture is located and where the worst depletion has occurred. http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwdepletion.html


Map of groundwater depletion in certain aquifers in the U.S., showing depletion from 1900 to 2008, in feet.



I suspect (and maybe someone on here has the time to find a more current map), that the depletion numbers for 2010-2016 for that Central California ag strip have probably increased dramatically.

Thank you for your informative blog Mr Henson.
Even though there has been what for a normal year an acceptable amount of rainfall in the California area it will probably not be anything like enough when the coming summer erodes at the supply.
Added to the problem with water in the area will be the increased absorbency of the lands and soil leading to shortages if next winters weather does not bring a lot more rainfall to keep levels toped up at even these reduced levels of this spring.

Really in summary for the water supply of California, there either has to be a lot more consistent rainfall, which is probably not going to happen, or there has to be reduced consumption, which is also defiantly not going to happen in the foreseeable future?

Meanwhile almost the whole of Spain today is have very heavy rainfall!
We had about 4 inches of rain today in Grazalema or 98 millimetres as they measure it in Europe.
   Thanks for the Interesting Post Mr.Henson.
Don’t like scientific discoveries? Stop science.
Posted on April 4, 2016 | 7 Comments

Wikipedia describes the Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) as the federal government agency for scientific research in Australia. It has a proud tradition, not only of industrial research, but of science for the public good, and quality science for its own sake. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the management of CSIRO plans to put a stop to that:

tamino

Proposed changes include:

Abolishing research on global greenhouse gas emissions.
Abolishing research on sea level rise.
Abolishing research in Antarctica.
Abolishing multi-year, multi-decadal climate modelling and analysis.
Reducing collection and analysis of ocean carbon levels, due to “insufficient demand”.
Reducing research into the management of the impact on biodiversity, due to reduced demand.


The Rain chance is now 35-45% and down to .08-.11" for two days.
solarham.com

April 3, 2016 @ 17:00 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Observed (UPDATED)

An elevated solar wind stream contributed to isolated periods of minor to moderate geomagnetic storming on Saturday and into early Sunday morning. Ian Jones sends us the nice aurora image below that he captured from Greenland. "As usual, I have been watching the website and got lucky tonight witnessing a really fantastic display in western Greenland in the city of Ilulissat. The KP was 6 at the time this photo was taken. I was so far north that the aurora was seen to the south." Thanks Ian for sharing!

Thanks, very good post, Bob.
Although the drought isn't gone, at least Neapolitan shouldn't worry this year about his favourite fruit. So the avocado tree I've been raising from the pit since last summer (see below) won't be necessary to fill in for now ...

Calavo's California avocado crop on the rise
by Tim Linden | March 29, 2016
Because of a heavy set on the trees, as well as some grower gains, Calavo Growers Inc., based in Santa Paula, CA, is expecting to ship about 50 percent more California avocados this year than the company did in 2015.
Rob Wedin, vice president of fresh sales and marketing, said the Ventura County district, where it is headquartered and has a strong presence, has a particularly heavy crop this season. And, speaking on March 7 after a couple of inches of rain had fallen the previous couple of days, he said that precipitation should result in a surge in growth in fruit size in the short term and even better quality for later fruit as the season wears on.
Calavo began shipping some California fruit in January, with light shipments also marking February. Wedin said volume would slowly increase in March, "and then we are going to hit it hard in April with shipments continuing through Labor Day," he added. ...
Returning his attention to the just completed rainstorm with more storms forecast to hit the state over the next week, Wedin said avocados do very well once a good rainstorm hits the area and "cleans out the root structure of a grove."
He explained that the rain gives an almost instantaneous growth spurt to the fruit getting ready for harvest, but also significantly improves the quality of less mature fruit that will be picked two, three, even four months later. Years of research has shown that trees perform much better on natural water as opposed to well water or that coming from other irrigation sources.



My avocado tree :-) (Yeah, I know, a single tree won't bear fruits; maybe I'll try to raise a partner this summer, just in case the drought in Cali intensifies again - hopefully not, of course).
From the article link posted below by RobertWC; we have entered into that "negative feedback loop" cycle that is almost impossible to stop at this point:

“This year’s trend line is not only way outside of the percentile zones,” Neven Acropolis notes at his must-read Arctic sea ice blog, “it’s falling off the chart.” This unusual warmth is a key reason Arctic sea ice extent just saw its lowest maximum on record.

It bears repeating that recent research finds that rapid Arctic warming, driven in part by sea ice loss, is already worsening extreme weather. Also, the permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, and as it defrosts, it releases that carbon in the form of either CO2 or an even more potent heat-trapping greenhouse gas, methane (CH4). Thus as Arctic warming speeds up, it boosts global greenhouse gas levels, which leads to even more warming of the Arctic and so on.




Quoting 13. barbamz:

Thanks, very good post, Bob.
Although the drought isn't gone, at least Neapolitan shouldn't worry this year about his favourite fruit. So the avocado tree I've been raising from the pit since last summer (see below) won't be necessary to fill in for now ...

Calavo's California avocado crop on the rise
by Tim Linden | March 29, 2016
Because of a heavy set on the trees, as well as some grower gains, Calavo Growers Inc., based in Santa Paula, CA, is expecting to ship about 50 percent more California avocados this year than the company did in 2015.
Rob Wedin, vice president of fresh sales and marketing, said the Ventura County district, where it is headquartered and has a strong presence, has a particularly heavy crop this season. And, speaking on March 7 after a couple of inches of rain had fallen the previous couple of days, he said that precipitation should result in a surge in growth in fruit size in the short term and even better quality for later fruit as the season wears on.
Calavo began shipping some California fruit in January, with light shipments also marking February. Wedin said volume would slowly increase in March, "and then we are going to hit it hard in April with shipments continuing through Labor Day," he added. ...
Returning his attention to the just completed rainstorm with more storms forecast to hit the state over the next week, Wedin said avocados do very well once a good rainstorm hits the area and "cleans out the root structure of a grove."
He explained that the rain gives an almost instantaneous growth spurt to the fruit getting ready for harvest, but also significantly improves the quality of less mature fruit that will be picked two, three, even four months later. Years of research has shown that trees perform much better on natural water as opposed to well water or that coming from other irrigation sources.



My avocado tree :-) (Yeah, I know, a single tree won't bear fruits; maybe I'll try to raise a partner this summer, just in case the drought in Cali intensifies again - hopefully not, of course).
Ah, avocados. My favorite fruit, indeed. (Hass, to be specific.) Good to hear the 2016 crop might be a bumper one; looking forward to September. ;-)
The masses will surly be cranky if there is no fresh water to wash down their Soylent Green. imho..
Joe Bastardi released his forecast for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season and because WeatherBell is a paid site I am only posting the general numbers.

11-14 Named Storms
6-8 Hurricanes
2-5 Majors

ACE between 105-135

Quoting 16. JNFlori30A:

The masses will surly be cranky if there is no fresh water to wash down their Soylent Green. imho..

They will surely be surly as well.
In light of those morons running the Australian government -



March temperatures sets record as hottest ever, Bureau of Meteorology says

Information released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) indicated it was the hottest March on record, reaching 1.7 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

This eclipsed the 1986 record of 1.67 degrees above the average, BoM said in its monthly climate report. ……………………………..
March 2 became Australia’s hottest day on record.

Averaged across the country, it reached a top of 38 degrees Celsius.

There was no relief overnight either with minimum overnight temperatures the warmest ever, smashing the 1983 record by 0.83 degrees.

Link
Quoting 17. Tropicsweatherpr:

Joe Bastardi released his forecast for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season and because WeatherBell is a paid site I am only posting the general numbers.

11-14 Named Storms
6-8 Hurricanes
2-5 Majors

ACE between 105-135

Similares a los mios 13-7-4 ACE 110-120


Karachi, Pakistan Water Shortages

20 million people in Karachi .
Quoting 16. JNFlori30A:

The masses will surly be cranky if there is no fresh water to wash down their Soylent Green. imho..

Actions, not policies needed to address water crisis: speakers

Former secretary irrigation Sindh and water expert Muhammad Idris Rajput while delivering his presentation on “inter-provincial water issues of Pakistan” said that water disputes between Sindh and Punjab dated back to British Rule when new canals, barrages and dams were planned, constructed or envisioned.

He said various commissions and committees were formed to resolve the water dispute but failed since Anderson Committee 1935 to Haleem Commission in 1983 because of three main reasons of the dispute including shortage of water, injustice in distribution and fear of future impact.


Link



Apex court observes that problems plaguing KWSB can be done away with only if the administration decides to do so.

The Supreme Court’s (SC) three-member bench hearing applications with respect to operation of illegal water hydrants in the city, on Thursday, observed that ill-governance and corruption had destroyed the port city’s water supply system.

The bench, headed by Justice Amir Hani Muslim, also heard applications pertaining to illegal water supply connections and tampering of water lines of the Karachi Water and Sewerage Board (KWSB) in different areas of the city.


Link



KARACHI:

The fate of the country’s first-ever privately installed power generation and water desalination plant hangs in limbo, as the Defence Housing Authority (DHA) and the money-lending bank continue to fight over its assets instead of making it operational.

Link
Hold your nose on this one -

Global Warming Is in the Hot Seat With ‘Climate Hustle’ Coming to Select U.S. Cinemas This May

Fathom Events and SpectiCast present this thought-provoking event on Monday, May 2, 2016, at 7:00 p.m. local time. In addition to the feature, audiences will also view an exclusive panel discussion and opening remarks by Congressman Lamar Smith (R-TX), Chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, headlined by special guest Governor Sarah Palin (2008 Republican Vice Presidential Candidate, 9th Governor of Alaska), and including notable climate experts and an appearance by Emmy Award-winning educator Bill Nye the Science Guy.

Link
Excellent post Bob. Guess our candidates for president don't see a worry in the world need to address water shortages throughout the U.S. Will be interesting when the groundwater tables exceed record minimum and whether this will become an issue. I remember here in Central Florida several years ago when the ground water reached and surpassed record low levels, everyone worried....until the skies opened up and nary a sound is now heard about water concerns from farmers or our governor or state representatives.
the SAL is not as dense as it has been the past few years in the MDR and over Africa. normally at this time every year the dust is very thick aand gives the impression that rain is imminent. is this an indication that the areas of the MDR and Africa is very moist. how does this portends for the hurricane season?
Quoting 24. hydrus:



The Atlantic is in for a warming.
Earth's internal heat drives rapid ice flow and subglacial melting in Greenland

The North Atlantic Ocean is an area of active plate tectonics. Between 80 and 35 million years ago tectonic processes moved Greenland over an area of abnormally hot mantle material that still today is responsible for the volcanic activity of Iceland. The mantle material heated and thinned Greenland at depth producing a strong geothermal anomaly that spans a quarter of the land area of Greenland. This ancient and long-lived source of heat has created a region where subglacial meltwater is abundant, lubricating the base of the ice and making it flow rapidly. The study indicates that about a half of the ice in north-central Greenland is resting on a thawed bed and that the meltwater is routed to the ocean through a dense hydrological network beneath the ice.


Read more at: Link

Quoting 14. weathermanwannabe:

From the article link posted below by RobertWC; we have entered into that "negative feedback loop" cycle that is almost impossible to stop at this point:

“This year’s trend line is not only way outside of the percentile zones,” Neven Acropolis notes at his must-read Arctic sea ice blog, “it’s falling off the chart.” This unusual warmth is a key reason Arctic sea ice extent just saw its lowest maximum on record.

It bears repeating that recent research finds that rapid Arctic warming, driven in part by sea ice loss, is already worsening extreme weather. Also, the permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, and as it defrosts, it releases that carbon in the form of either CO2 or an even more potent heat-trapping greenhouse gas, methane (CH4). Thus as Arctic warming speeds up, it boosts global greenhouse gas levels, which leads to even more warming of the Arctic and so on.







The first paragraph seems overdramatic. Summer conditions drive melt more than winter conditions. 2012, a record low year, had slightly ABOVE AVERAGE ice cover in March.

Longer term, though we aren't definitely in the negative feedback cycle yet, it is likely now or soon and the implications for arctic ecosystems are dire, maybe alarming for midlatitude weather too. People tend to focus too much on weather effects and not enough on the truly alarming ecological effects and ocean chemical effects. Focus on climate effects is appropriate and these too will be dire.
Quoting 15. Neapolitan:

Ah, avocados. My favorite fruit, indeed. (Hass, to be specific.) Good to hear the 2016 crop might be a bumper one; looking forward to September. ;-)

I don't grow avocados. I do grow lemons and may be self sufficient in them from December to April next year here in DC, first year ever for that. About 20 this winter, expecting 40 next year.

My daughter likes mangoes but those are beyond my capabilities here in DC
Quoting 1. ariot:

"Despite the improvement, we can expect many farmers and ranchers to continue drawing from California’s largely unregulated groundwater, a practice that has led to subsidence so dramatic--up to 2 inches per month in some areas--that it is detectable by NASA satellites."

I suspect this is the core problem going forward, even if we somehow better predict the variation in annual rain/snowfall for planners (urban and farm).


Yet another case of the tragedy of the commons problem, so far intractable and not solved in the four centuries since it was first defined.
The weather has been very bi-polar so far this April.Today was in the low 70's and tomorrow will be in the 40's.The rain is now approaching and that's a good thing considering that a light dusting of pollen was on the screen when I went to the ATM this morning.
Quoting 20. JRRP7:


Similares a los mios 13-7-4 ACE 110-120
12-6-2
Quoting 32. washingtonian115:

The weather has been very bi-polar so far this April.Today was in the low 70's and tomorrow will be in the 40's.The rain is now approaching and that's a good thing considering that a light dusting of pollen was on the screen when I went to the ATM this morning.


Looking at the first advective freeze in many years in April here tomorrow morning and Friday/Saturday mornings.

Sunday was a (well forecast) shock from 60s saturday to 30s with howling winds sunday am. The warmup today, also forecast was even more of a shock, warmups this fast are less common than rapid cooldowns with cold fronts.
Quoting 33. Gearsts:

12-6-2


Mines are 13/7/3. Is anyone doing a poll in WU ?
Quoting 29. georgevandenberghe:



The first paragraph seems overdramatic.



the runaway effect is real
the building blocks of life itself has been
compromised (bring into disrepute or danger by indiscreet, foolish, or reckless behavior)

19/8/4 minus the first named system from January that makes 18/7/4

these numbers are not a forecast and will increase or decrease depending on dev conditions up to june 1
16/7/3. I'm leaning to an above-average season due to La Nina and the fact that 2015 managed near normal activity despite a very strong El Nino.
compare 15/16

apr4 compare 15/16



I have been noticing that cool pool in the North Atlantic. It is the fresh water ice melt water from the Greenland Glaciers. I keep thinking that all the analog years are useless because this cool pool has both slowed the Gulf Stream and may change the way the storms steer.

Can anyone hazard a guess as to how this will effect the hurricane season. Particularly, wind shear and steering currents?

Qazulight
Quoting 42. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

apr4 compare 15/16






This water temperature map looks to be showing around 29c (84 f) in the Bahamas. But the current water temperature in Nassau, Bahamas - corrected to 25c, (77 f).
I've been to the Bahamas many times around this time of the year (but not this year) and the water has always been a bit chilly (by my standards).
So I have to question those temperatures being represented by the 2016 water temp map.
IDK?
Update, I checked another site that showed 77 f (25c) in Nassau and 75 f (24c) in Freeport.
Freeport is showing 24c or 75 f. so it's pretty warm. Not up in the 80s f, 29+c but pretty warm.
Quoting 45. Sfloridacat5:



This water temperature map looks to be showing around 29c (84 f) in the Bahamas. But the current water temperature in Nassau, Bahamas is only 20c (68 f).
I've been to the Bahamas many times around this time of the year (but not this year) and the water has always been a bit chilly (by my standards).
So I have to question those temperatures being represented by the 2016 water temp map.
IDK?
Update, I checked another site that showed 77 degree water temp in Nassau?

Not to far fetched.I saw a post from Mr.Henson that the waters down there were still at record levels.Lets all hope we don't see any more Joaquin's for the Bahamas because had it been August and the steering currents pointing west it could have gotten really ugly for not only the them but Florida too.A steering pattern like 2010 would be ideal with strong storms roaming the Atlantic but not really affecting land.
wet snow with slick roads all day. not much accumulation as most of it melted, but enough to make a dangerous commute with cars all over and off the road.
Quoting 44. Qazulight:

I have been noticing that cool pool in the North Atlantic. It is the fresh water ice melt water from the Greenland Glaciers. I keep thinking that all the analog years are useless because this cool pool has both slowed the Gulf Stream and may change the way the storms steer.

Can anyone hazard a guess as to how this will effect the hurricane season. Particularly, wind shear and steering currents?

Qazulight


Anyone who has followed this unfolding event, (the cold spot) is wondering some of the same questions. I'm wondering if the tropical lows will be hurled into Greenland, while maintaining much of their heat and power. We've all seen loops lately where the jet is not just "loopy" , but purely vertical.

And if the Gulf Stream can't export heat as it once did, what is the Loop Current gonna look like ?

Time to break out the old Doors album........... "Strange Days"
51. SLU
El Collapso

El Nino ..weaker and weaker
My Hurricane prediction for this year, 15/5/3
I'm looking at hurricane forecast more closely this year as I have brought property in hurricane country this past winter.I'm quite anxious on whats going to happen this summer as it could go either way.The hurricanes are a different beast in Florida than they are up here in D.C.
Quoting 54. hurricanewatcher61:

My Hurricane prediction for this year, 15/5/3


I'm not going to make any prediction
Quoting 45. Sfloridacat5:



This water temperature map looks to be showing around 29c (84 f) in the Bahamas. But the current water temperature in Nassau, Bahamas - corrected to 25c, (77 f).
I've been to the Bahamas many times around this time of the year (but not this year) and the water has always been a bit chilly (by my standards).
So I have to question those temperatures being represented by the 2016 water temp map.
IDK?
Update, I checked another site that showed 77 f (25c) in Nassau and 75 f (24c) in Freeport.


Mate, that probably is a glitch, check the pattern of the SST in the surrounding.
Keeper of the Gate, nice chart you posted showing temperature departures from normal. It is 86 here in Fort Worth, not a cloud in the sky and truly beautiful. Keep posting that kind of data - Texas Hoosier
Quoting 54. hurricanewatcher61:

My Hurricane prediction for this year, 15/5/3

I'm not going to make any prediction until late may, I just wanna see when the Nino regions start to cool down and how warm the Atlantic will stay, specially MDR.
It was interesting to take a look at JB's hurricane season forecast. I'm not a huge fan of his forecasting approach, let alone his climate stance, but he's had some success with seasonal forecasts in the past so it was certainly worth a read. This is a tricky year to forecast for, and there may be more variability than usual among the "official" forecasts. Looking forward to the CSU and NOAA forecasts.

FWIW though, his forecast was actually quite similar to mine in many ways. He's a bit more bullish on total activity than I am (which given his tendencies probably means I'm right on the money ;) ), but we're both thinking that unlike the past couple years, this could be a more active year for the Caribbean and Gulf regions. My numbers actually represent the bottom of all three of his ranges for storms, hurricanes, and majors (11/6/2). If you missed my forecast, it's linked here:

Link

...And it's still pretty early to be thinking about hurricanes. Much of the Boston-Providence corridor saw 3-6" of snow today!
I'm thinking 14/6/2 or something similar. Slightly more active than last year.
Quoting 37. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




the runaway effect is real
the building blocks of life itself has been
compromised (bring into disrepute or danger by indiscreet, foolish, or reckless behavior)


That's not the only sentence that is a little overdramatic.
Quoting 44. Qazulight:

I have been noticing that cool pool in the North Atlantic. It is the fresh water ice melt water from the Greenland Glaciers. I keep thinking that all the analog years are useless because this cool pool has both slowed the Gulf Stream and may change the way the storms steer.

Can anyone hazard a guess as to how this will effect the hurricane season. Particularly, wind shear and steering currents?

Qazulight
Any links to the cold pool being caused, from the glacial runoffs?

Macademia Nut trees are blooming like madness this year. The sweet scent hangs heavy on the north side of my house. The problem is there are no bees. I've been watching all day, saw one lazy bumblebee, a wasp and two flies. The blooms should be covered in honeybees. I'm not optimistic about getting much of a crop this year.
Quoting 60. CybrTeddy:

I'm thinking 14/6/2 or something similar. Slightly more active than last year.


I agree with those numbers, last year was very hostile in the Atlantic and still produced 12/4/2.
Quoting 60. CybrTeddy:

I'm thinking 14/6/2 or something similar. Slightly more active than last year.


I just finished my forecast. Will be converting it from PDF over to my blog. I'll have it up later this evening!
Same story here. Peach blossoms should be buzzing with activity but they are not. Checking morning, midday and just now. Most activity, although very limited, seems to be the hour before sundown.

Quoting 63. guygee:


Macademia Nut trees are blooming like madness this year. The sweet scent hangs heavy on the north side of my house. The problem is there are no bees. I've been watching all day, saw one lazy bumblebee, a wasp and two flies. The blooms should be covered in honeybees. I'm not optimistic about getting much of a crop this year.
With water supplies increasingly threatened worldwide, big money knows water is fast becoming one of the world's most important investment opportunities. see The New Water Barons: Wall Street Mega-Banks are Buying up the World's Water


Quoting 64. stormchaser19:



I agree with those numbers, last year was very hostile in the Atlantic and still produced 12/4/2.


I was actually surprised any year with such a powerful El Nino could produce a storm like the magnitude of Joaquin.
unlike the past couple years, this could be a more active year for the Caribbean and Gulf regions.

Looking at things in the present and on the climate models the caribbean may be back in business with some showing below average shear,slow trades and pipping sst.I'm less concerned about the cape verde storms and more concerned about the home grown ones.
I'm going with 14-18/6-10/2-6: 16/8/4 averaged. Will wait until mid-late May until finalising my estimates.
97P looks like a TD already, and 96P is struggling due to 97P's outflow. Either way Vanuatu and Fiji are still in for some heavy rains, and they have been pounded by recent rains from the trough that created 96P and 97P.

97P







96P







Quoting 66. HaoleboySurfEC:

Same story here. Peach blossoms should be buzzing with activity but they are not. Checking morning, midday and just now. Most activity, although very limited, seems to be the hour before sundown.



I'm deep in the suburban matrix, and I'm pretty sure beekeeping is against code. In any case I think wherever the nearest hive is, it is far away and the bees just are not finding me. I took my picture right before I posted this evening and there were no insects at all. We need the pollinators for much of our food, yet we are driving them to extinction with insecticides. It is getting worse every year IMO.
Quoting 69. washingtonian115:

unlike the past couple years, this could be a more active year for the Caribbean and Gulf regions.

Looking at things in the present and on the climate models the caribbean may be back in business with some showing below average shear,slow trades and pipping sst.I'm less concerned about the cape verde storms and more concerned about the home grown ones.
A season where activity is shifted towards the west instead of a normal Cape Verde season. wunderkidcayman will have many sleepless nights ;)
Quoting 65. TylerStanfield:



I just finished my forecast. Will be converting it from PDF over to my blog. I'll have it up later this evening!

OMG thanks sooo much. That was me on twitter@Malik Antwon, who asked you about it. I'll check it out.
Quoting 32. washingtonian115:

The weather has been very bi-polar so far this April.Today was in the low 70's and tomorrow will be in the 40's.The rain is now approaching and that's a good thing considering that a light dusting of pollen was on the screen when I went to the ATM this morning.
Yes, temps look like they will be going through big up and down swings this week.
Quoting 32. washingtonian115:

The weather has been very bi-polar so far this April.Today was in the low 70's and tomorrow will be in the 40's.The rain is now approaching and that's a good thing considering that a light dusting of pollen was on the screen when I went to the ATM this morning.
Same bi polarity here - 87 yesterday, barely 76 today....
Quoting 45. Sfloridacat5:



This water temperature map looks to be showing around 29c (84 f) in the Bahamas. But the current water temperature in Nassau, Bahamas - corrected to 25c, (77 f).
I've been to the Bahamas many times around this time of the year (but not this year) and the water has always been a bit chilly (by my standards).
So I have to question those temperatures being represented by the 2016 water temp map.
IDK?
Update, I checked another site that showed 77 f (25c) in Nassau and 75 f (24c) in Freeport.

Temperature today might be down due to a passing frontal system. Last week air temperatures here were in the upper 80s ... 80 degrees in the water, especially over the banks, was possible. Also I'm not sure what the average water temperature is in April.
77. IDTH
I think I'll make my prediction in May. Won't lie I think the cape verde season will not be as pronounced this year as it was previous years. I've seen in a lot of model runs a below average water temp around the coast of Africa. If the Caribbean get's out of it's funk, I could see more storms forming in that region this year.

I wonder just what is in store for us this Hurricane season and will it be bad one? I'll be back in May, I'll be ready to join the discussion then.
Quoting 62. NativeSun:

Any links to the cold pool being caused, from the glacial runoffs?


There's a good discussion of the possible / likely causes of the north Atlantic cold spot here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015 /03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/

One of the consequences is much warmer water (and corresponding higher sea level) off the US East coast. Obviously this provides more energy for storms that travel that way, but how it affects large-scale steering patterns, I don't know.
Quoting 73. Gearsts:

A season where activity is shifted towards the west instead of a normal Cape Verde season. wunderkidcayman will have many sleepless nights ;)
Lets hope we don't have no Dean's or Ivan's or we may hear several false reports.
Quite beautiful day it was here in South Alabama today. Started out the morning at 44 and made it all the way up to 84! Wow! Two days straight now with this beautiful blue sky but after a while it gets extremely boring. After a very busy March it looks like we'll have to wait until at least mid April to really get some severe producing systems.
Well here it is! I found an alternative to share my original PDF document.
2016 Hurricane Season | April Outlook
Quoting 81. TylerStanfield:

Well here it is! I found an alternative to share my original PDF document.
2016 Hurricane Season | April Outlook

I understand there is no feedback option so I posted the Outlook text to my blog. Link Here
My hurricane season prediction for April is 15/8/3. It is probably a little above what will happen but I will update it in May or June.
New study shows increased flooding, accelerated sea-level rise in Miami over last decade

Researchers suggest using local sea-level rise projections to better protect community from coastal floods

University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science


Credit: Shimon Wdowinski, Ph.D.

MIAMI--A new University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science-led study found that Miami Beach flood events have significantly increased over the last decade due to an acceleration of sea-level rise in South Florida. The researchers suggest that regional sea-level projections should be used in place of global projections to better prepare for future flood hazards in the region.

...The study also provides new evidence that connects the weakening of the Gulf Stream with sea-level rise along the US Atlantic coast.

Link
My prediction: 17/8/4
Quoting 84. annabatic:

New study shows increased flooding, accelerated sea-level rise in Miami over last decade

Researchers suggest using local sea-level rise projections to better protect community from coastal floods

University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science


Credit: Shimon Wdowinski, Ph.D.

MIAMI--A new University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science-led study found that Miami Beach flood events have significantly increased over the last decade due to an acceleration of sea-level rise in South Florida. The researchers suggest that regional sea-level projections should be used in place of global projections to better prepare for future flood hazards in the region.

...The study also provides new evidence that connects the weakening of the Gulf Stream with sea-level rise along the US Atlantic coast.

Link


The link "can not be reached" so broken?

Euro has a subtropical storm here.
Quoting 35. Tropicsweatherpr:



Mines are 13/7/3. Is anyone doing a poll in WU ?


Max (Maxweather) is doing his annual poll again.
Quoting 87. Andrebrooks:


Euro has a subtropical storm here.


Yea, looks like we may be dealing with Bonnie in a week or so.
@CaneFreeCR - oops- thanks for catching that. I think it's fixed now...
Quoting 89. CybrTeddy:



Yea, looks like we may be dealing with Bonnie in a week or so.
More like 3 days. Maybe the NHC will mention something tomorrow.
92. vis0
On your mark get ready and

...WHO JUMPED the gun

apology uploaded the rough version you see above here the more correctly overlayed seems version.

93. vis0
Fer ya younings try to think of the following when you saw more than not in the past few years TS smudges (smudgies) instead of a symmetrical TS.

If you were the present age anywhere from 40 to100 years back, the smudgy years would be nothing quiet skies, except 1-3 symmetrical TS/Hurr and sure one of those would be a monster, look at Joaquin., sadly.

Fast forward to the aGW/GW enhanced (bka -betterknownas- damaged) atmosphere and its as if before aGW/GW the world was a pot of almost boiling water so the lid did not lift till things were ready to cook. (MamaNana raising naturally the burners)

Now the planet is beginning to simmer. (humans indirectly/directly raising the burners)

That lid that did not lift during what use to be calm years now lifts once in a while creating puffs of moisture that twists into TS like pretzels aka TS smudges.

(what you've seen the last few years in the ATL or when you saw more medium type TS in the Pac ocean in between the behemoths)

When the curtain rises for act 2 scene 5 of the aGW era you'll have TS smudgies acting as jabs, flooding here there here again and strong symmetrical hurricanes acting as the knock out blow(s).
 

Before you get your popcorn make sure your preparedness as to TS has been exercised / practiced and that you have the checklist laminated. 

Practice just as you wish your favorite sports team would've practiced after you see them make an error that was so easy to prevent.
Its almost the same, as practicing makes one do the necessary actions as if second nature...one major difference is Nature does not allow for overtimes. You survive and live to tell of what happened or get caught unprepared and end up in a lot of pain with pieces of who knows what embedded throughout your body. Too graphic?
Then practice now to prevent pain later.

And to those that think ah "smudgies" are nothing, look  at what happened to the Antilles (Dominica) with 2015 TS Erika (barely 50mph but rain that would flood many areas in Texas, all on a lovely small Island)

One last thing, Joaquin with all its damage/furry created conditions that led to the loss of 35 lives, Erka with just puffs, winds that most on Islands feel on a sunny day when there is a pressure squeeze (40-gusts 50mph) created conditions (with the help of its unexpected rainfall/lack of motion) that led to the loss of 36.
94. vis0

Quoting 91. Andrebrooks:

More like 3 days. Maybe the NHC will mention something tomorrow.


When was the NHC? to update  (IF any) 2015's TS report?
Nice article Dr. Henson. The changes you have documented are pretty darn scary.
la niña mode on...

to be continued...

Quoting 86. CaneFreeCR:

The link "can not be reached" so broken?
add an "s" at the end of "http" and it will find the article.....
We went out to see the NCAA championship game 1 1/2 mile walk each way. I had my first burgerizza (q.v.). The temperature has dropped from this afternoon's 71°F. Considerably. The calories from the burgerizza and beer were not enough. I am a...



Since today will be frigid for an April day, here's something to keep the spring mood alive:


Is anyone else amused when a scientific publication calls it "the El Niño"? See if you can find it in here.
101. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA/ERAU
 
What's this?

Had some free time so upload 3 views of the WHemTropics. 

static img::

see some thunderstorm action, where? follow green arrow, just under the dust on your screen. See those red micro pixels. If that headed NNW to join with whats in the 2nd aniGIF below i'd pay more attention.
 

1st aniGIF::

Lightning activities, observing areas NE of Bahamas - SW of Bermuda (pay attention to timestamps they are all different)
ImgLand.net image


2nd aniGIF::

Low cloud activities (VsFg or Vsfog), the atmospheric motions give an illusion of  a spin but not so far not the clouds.

ImgLand.net image


Tonites unheard of question is::
i wonder what aGW/GW will do in influencing TS that begin from the inside out versus TS that begin from the outside in.  

In other words Genesis begins from an inner actions of  a core of clouds or clouds bought together by flows of fast moving streams of air that interact.
102. vis0

Quoting 16. JNFlori30A:

The masses will surly be cranky if there is no fresh water to wash down their Soylent Green. imho..

ah we'll wash it down with water flavoured corn syrup with added vita- X.


Good morning abroad. Severe flooding in parts of Argentina and Uruguay. Above video is from La Paz/Argentina where 260mm (10,2 inches) of rain fell in few hours (Spanish source). English coverage is poor as always; right now just an article from Accuweather available:

Downpours to bring flooding to Uruguay and Argentina
By Eric Leister, Meteorologist, April 5, 2016; 6:01 AM ET


Current saved still from wetteronline.de. The spot of heavy rains in this part of South America is already around for some days now.

News from Pakistan still worsening:
Death Toll From Pakistan Rains and Flood Rises to 71
By AFP, published: 05th April 2016 04:04 PM
PESHAWAR, Pakistan: The death toll after heavy rains in Pakistan's northwest and in Kashmir rose to 71 Tuesday, officials said, as rescuers sought to evacuate dozens of people still trapped by landslides. ...
Quoting 78. Bern99:



There's a good discussion of the possible / likely causes of the north Atlantic cold spot here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015 /03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/

One of the consequences is much warmer water (and corresponding higher sea level) off the US East coast. Obviously this provides more energy for storms that travel that way, but how it affects large-scale steering patterns, I don't know.

Thanks
Good Morning; the forecast for Conus and overall look for today.  That big low situated in the E-Pac is trying to direct some of that Pacific moisture (currently flowing over the Baja Peninsula) into SoCal; so close but yet so far............................................

cyclone alert for Fiji this one is coming from the west
Advective freeze here in College Park MD. Light but definite. Lettuce and collard leaves were frozen stiff but will survive. Ice crusts on puddles and flowerpot surfaces. Breezy.. cold!

Quoting 106. islander101010:

cyclone alert for Fiji this one is coming from the west
Thanks for the reminder: pretty active at the moment in that part of the South Pacific:



109. vis0
mmah mah mah mah mah mah mah my petunia, my mini tomatoes & cucumber froze and i don't even have a garden.
Was bringing them home after buying them at the near-by outdoors corner "spring" market near 33rd street & 2nd ave...was 29F then.windchill???low teens remember this period is equivalent to a late September sun and winter was not that cold.

If i may toot my horn (ah that's frozen too) think something is causing (push-pulling) that polar vortex on a constant to create this cold. You se the RRR over the Atlantic is pushing warmth northward displacing the colder polar air. The polar air mass though cold is not as large of a mass due to aGW eating away at it. YET magically gets cold air replenished to keep the NE cold for days then the warmth shoots right back up like there was no heavy cold flow at all. Remember the majekeel-device i type of on my blog does not control it influences on what is nearest / strongest LOW / weather flow is to it (zip 10016).
The strongest flow is that between the Polar Vortex and LOWs retrograding over Easern Canada. Since El Niño is dissipating the zip 10016 device is having to focus one day on a strong southerly flow then the next day on the nearness of the polar vortex. or i cou;ld be 99.9% wrong and 220% delusional (110% for me 110% for the other me).  Don't forget to double layer your winter coats over that bikini the following weekends if going to Coney Island, 7am - Noon winter then  1pm to 5pm its Spring.  If you listen to the sparrows closely you can hear their chirps have a uncertainty to them as if instead of chirping ITS SPRING!!!  ITS SPRING!!!  ITS SPRING!!!  its more like its spring???? its spring????  %$%#!, its spring???? its spring????

BTW the G-CFS predicted this a few weeks ago, cheers to the crazy CFS as its crazy initializations finally were matched due to aGW's schizo affect and an imaginary weather influencing device.

Closer to home, that big push of warmer water into the Southern Gulf through the Yucatan Channel that has been very persistent for the past few months (the Gulf Loop Current) has finally spun off a nice sized Eddy: better now than later as they usually dissipate over the course of a few months and this one may not last into the Atlantic/Gulf hurricane season (unless replaced by another one in June/July).


112. ariot
The only good thing about this cold snap for me was how well it was predicted. That and going without a jacket to absorb as much cold as possible before it get hot and humid. Yes, I do that because science. :-P

TSR April forecast is out and they have 12/6/2.

TSR April forecast
Quoting 98. BaltimoreBrian:

We went out to see the NCAA championship game 1 1/2 mile walk each way. I had my first burgerizza (q.v.). The temperature has dropped from this afternoon's 71°F. Considerably. The calories from the burgerizza and beer were not enough. I am a...






Can't imagine why obesity and heart issues are top of the list problems. ;)
Quoting 100. BaltimoreBrian:

Is anyone else amused when a scientific publication calls it "the El Niño"? See if you can find it in here.


Isn't saying "the El Nino" kind of like saying "ain't no Nino"? :)
Quoting 68. CybrTeddy:



I was actually surprised any year with such a powerful El Nino could produce a storm like the magnitude of Joaquin.


Yep but there's no guarantee there won't be period of more favorable conditions during a strong El Nino event featuring low shear etc. sandwiched between unfavorable conditions the rest of the season, which is what happened. In the same way, there's no guarantee El Nino will bring torrential winter rains to California and FL through the whole winter.

There's also no guarantee La Nina brings highly favorable hurricane development conditions the whole season either.
All of the very early (April- June) pre-season hurricane forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic season from the various outlets are basically long shot guesses; once we get to the real time conditions in July; they can usually come closer to the potential overall numbers for the season.

However, trajectory and ultimate point of land fall (or a fish storm) for any given individual tropical storm is something that cannot be predicted until the storm/hurricane actually forms (subject to real time ridging/troffing/steering currents/A-B high position). At then end of the day, trajectory and intensity is biggest potential danger for anyone living in hurricane alley.

Point being that the numbers game gets peoples attention for the upcoming season but not particularly an impressive feat in my personal opinion; the bottom line (per NHC terminology which I prefer) is that we try to predict an average/above-average/below-average season withing the Enso regime. Right now, we are not sure what the shear/enso phase will be exactly for the peak period from mid-August through the end of September.
Quoting 116. Jedkins01:



Yep but there's no guarantee there won't be period of more favorable conditions during a strong El Nino event featuring low shear etc. sandwiched between unfavorable conditions the rest of the season, which is what happened. In the same way, there's no guarantee El Nino will bring torrential winter rains to California and FL through the whole winter.

There's also no guarantee La Nina brings highly favorable hurricane development conditions the whole season either.


Hey Jed, the past couple of years the Atlantic has the dominated by dry, sinking, stable air. Any insights how that is looking for this year?
119. vis0

Quoting 105. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; the forecast for Conus and overall look for today.  That big low situated in the E-Pac is trying to direct some of that Pacific moisture (currently flowing over the Baja Peninsula) into SoCal; so close but yet so far............................................


pay close attn
One of Bob's articles recently mentioned that next year could be a La Nina year. Please pardon my ignorance here, but what does that mean for California? Dry and Cold, or cold and wet?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
STORM WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZENA, CATEGORY ONE (16F)
0:00 AM FST April 6 2016
============================
Near Vanuatu

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT is in force for Fiji

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Zena, Category One (992 hPa) located 15.4S 167.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. Position FAIR based on hourly Himawari-8 imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Deep convection remains persistent with primary band wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. Organization has improved in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 31C. System lies just south of an upper ridge and in a low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the south and east. System is being steered to the east southeast by the deep layer mean west-northwest wind flow. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap yields a DT=3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 16.9S 171.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 18.3S 175.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 19.5S 176.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
area near bahamas even in el nino yrs is generally a favorable area. la nina upcoming. we should see some more MDR action. last yr the low pressures crossing the atlantic were persistent even though the uls were hostile. look out for this yr. im looking for an above average yr for ACE#
40% chance of seeing a below normal season.. according to TSR.
124. SLU
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 3h3 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

CFSV2 forecasting very cold arctic warm season. would inhibit ice melt so record lows of 07,12 not met
Quoting 120. TracySaunders:

One of Bob's articles recently mentioned that next year could be a La Nina year. Please pardon my ignorance here, but what does that mean for California? Dry and Cold, or cold and wet?


A quick Google search yielded this:

La Niña tends to cause drying in California, and it often persists — and deepens — for years afterward

126. 882MB
Wow, Fiji is being impacted by a huge Complex of storms at the moment, you can see Fiji in the top left hand corner of 96P's floater, not looking so good, and this is well in advance of Zena. Also Zena looks to be intensifying, looks like an eye is trying to pop out.

96P



Zena






Quoting 124. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 3h3 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

CFSV2 forecasting very cold arctic warm season. would inhibit ice melt so record lows of 07,12 not met


Why and what does it mean, 'very cold'? Both summers 2007 and 2012 were on the cold side, in fact, though anomalies in the peak of melt are tiny.
Nothing means less here than ANY JB quote.


: P

129. 882MB
I believe this track will change intensity wise. IMHO



Well, commenting on someone who quotes JB might be right down there. But then so would someone who comments on someone who comments, etc., etc, etc...
131. vis0

Quoting 127. cRRKampen:


Why and what does it mean, 'very cold'? Both summers 2007 and 2012 were on the cold side, in fact, though anomalies in the peak of melt are tiny.

Simply stated a SUPER COLD summer AIN' T as cold as a warm winter, even in the polar areas.

A deeper thought is how the heck is nature going to add the ice in 6 months that has melted faster than has been seen in the history of humans and some MANY! years before.

In other words if you build an Empire state building as an EXACT replica of ice one the moving north pole and it usually losses 1 floor of ice over 11 years but regains that floor over the next 11 years, give or take a few inches things are steady.
 
Now melt 30 floors over 20 years then expect that in 6 months of WHAT natural flow?, will add oh just 2 floors back, JB please explain.
 
on no!!!, a giant polar bear is atop the Empire state building ice replica swatting down WW I planes with one hand while holding a cold coke (mostly ice, to stay cool) in the other hand.
back to observing S Cali/Ariz. & Fiji.
Quoting 129. 882MB:

I believe this track will change intensity wise. IMHO





I'm testing my modern climate rule for this one.
'Always take the most bullish model and add a category or two'.
Quoting 127. cRRKampen:


Why and what does it mean, 'very cold'? Both summers 2007 and 2012 were on the cold side, in fact, though anomalies in the peak of melt are tiny.



Summer 2007 was very warm in the arctic esp in the critical early summer season when ice melt starts. Don't remember a strong signal from 2012
Quoting 114. Xyrus2000:



Can't imagine why obesity and heart issues are top of the list problems. ;)
Man, that Burgerizza looks good! But better with a slab of chicken in place of the red meat.
Does anybody have the links to the graphs to the El nino region current status.
Quoting 135. Andrebrooks:

Dies anybody have the links to the graphs to the El nino region current status.
lol
Quoting 124. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 3h3 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

CFSV2 forecasting very cold arctic warm season. would inhibit ice melt so record lows of 07,12 not met



Once again, JB showing his idiocy. Let's skip the fact that long range weather models aren't very accurate. Air temperatures do not determine how much ice melts. It's a factor, but just one factor. Ocean temperatures are a far larger impact on overall ice volume. Then there's ice transport (how much ice is being blown out of the arctic. Direct insolation will still melt ice even with below freezing temperatures.

Oh, and then there's the actual condition of the ice, which has been degrading pretty much every year. It takes a lot more energy to melt 3 meters of ice than it does to melt 1 meter of ice.

And lastly, we have statistics. Any person with even a passing knowledge of statistics could make the claim that the arctic won't hit 2007/2012 minimums and would likely be correct, regardless of their knowledge of physics. Why? Because 2007 and 2012 are statistical outliers. They both had a set of conditions occur that were very conducive to melting/transporting ice, so the decreases those years where a couple standard deviations outside the norm. Statistical outliers are outliers because they are outside the norm and don't happen often. Idiots like JB will then claim he made a correct prediction, when in fact it is the most likely outcome.

At any rate, weather conditions during peak insolation is the big factor, and we won't know the weather conditions until we get to peak insolation.
You've got humidity near 60% and a fire weather watch?!

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1118 AM CHST TUE APR 5 2016

...DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN FIRE DANGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GUZ001-050930-
/O.CON.PGUM.FW.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160406T0800Z/
GUAM-
1118 AM CHST TUE APR 5 2016

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* AFFECTED AREA...GUAM.

* WIND...EAST 15 TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 60 PERCENT

* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

* TIMING...MOST DANGEROUS TIME WILL BE FROM THE LATE MORNING
UNTIL NEAR SUNSET.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG EAST-FACING SLOPES. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED
AS FLYING EMBERS AND ASH MAY START NEW FIRES DOWNWIND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN
FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.
140. 882MB
Quoting 135. Andrebrooks:

Dies anybody have the links to the graphs to the El nino region current status.


Link
The second phase of the Met Office's 97 million (~$137 million) supercomputer has been completed, over a month ahead of schedule. It'll reach full capacity in 2017, but could be sooner given both the first and second phase have been over a month ahead of schedule (so over 2 months ahead of schedule total). Once complete, it'll be one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world and will be 13 times more powerful than the current system used by the Met Office. It'll allow for higher resolution models and should be a great addition to the world of meterology. Quite exciting! :D
Quoting 140. 882MB:



Link
Not that one, the one where it shows the graphs of each El nino regions current temperature anomalies, and the trends over the months.
How bout dem Cub's yesterday?



Quoting 142. Andrebrooks:

Not that one, the one where it shows the graphs of each El nino regions current temperature anomalies, and the trends over the months.


Ask da GOOGLE'S, dey know everything.


Climate Variability: Oceanic Niño Index
Author: LuAnn Dahlman
Sunday, August 30, 2009

--updated Feb. 11, 2016


The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is NOAA's primary indicator for monitoring El Niño and La Niña, which are opposite phases of the climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. NOAA considers El Niño conditions to be present when the Oceanic Niño Index is +0.5 or higher, indicating the east-central tropical Pacific is significanty warmer than usual. La Niña conditions exist when the Oceanic Niño Index is -0.5 or lower, indicating the region is cooler than usual.


more here: graphs of each El nino regions current temperature anomalies
Mobile Solar Panels for Disaster Relief





Quoting 124. SLU:

Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago %uF031 Pennsylvania, USA

CFSV2 forecasting very cold arctic warm season. would inhibit ice melt so record lows of 07,12 not met

Well, let's go back a few years and see how well JB has done with previous Arctic sea ice predictions:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G-ozEvSFVg

Of course, he's also on record stating that 2011 would be the start of a long-term global cooling trend. He's *also* repeatedly demonstrated a near complete lack of understanding of physics, and fluid dynamics, and lots and lots of all that other science-y stuff...

Bottom line: JB should probably just stick with predicting sunrise and sunset times. He's been fairly accurate with those, as best I can tell.
For all who are suffering from cold weather in the US and Canada, here a little bunch of heatwave news ;-)

20C and a water shortage: Sweden's having a heatwave
The Local (Sweden) Published: 05 Apr 2016 12:03 GMT 02:00
Forecasters from Sweden's SMHI weather agency told Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter that the unusual weather was down to the same air mass also expected to bring highs of more than 20C to Berlin and at least 25C in Vienna. ...


Temps in Europe earlier this afternoon. You see where temperatures are already soaring to summerly hights, loaded with Saharan dust (SAL) ...

Heat wave conditions grip central India
Press Trust of India | New Delhi April 5, 2016 Last Updated at 18:57 IST
Several parts of central India are experiencing heat wave conditions, with many cities and towns recording temperature over 40 degree Celsius, a phenomena not known to occur in the first week of April. ...

Vegetable prices soar in Malaysia amid heatwave
By Melissa Goh, Malaysia Bureau Chief, Channel NewsAsia, Posted 05 Apr 2016 14:08
Prices of greens have risen in Malaysia - some as much as 50 per cent, sellers at a local market say - as the country's vegetables wither under the extended spell of hot weather. ...

Oregon, Pacific Northwest could see record high temperatures this week
By KVAL Tuesday, April 5th 2016
In reading through the current April TSR, it illustrates how the numbers can be influenced by Enso/sheer issues.  Their current baseline on the enso issue for the peak is based on a neutral scenario; if we start to see a cold bias towards El Nina by August/Sept, then TSR may update to an average year in their Aug update (a few more potential storms)....................A little too early to know where that issue might end up by the Sept peak :
The July-September 2016 trade wind prediction is based on an expectation of near-neutral El Niño ENSO conditions in August-September 2016 which is similar to the current consensus ENSO outlook by dynamical and statistical models documented on the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 

 
Zimbabwe: Desperate Times in Zimbabwe As El Niño Food Shortage Ravages the Nation
Analysis by Roger Yates, April 3, 2016
THE El Niño-induced drought is ravaging parts of eastern and southern Africa. It is destroying lives, livelihoods, crops, cattle and landscape as well as children's right to an education.
While Ethiopia continues to dominate the headlines, with reports stating it is the worst drought to hit the country in 30 years, it is important not to forget that other countries such as Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique are reeling under a severe drought caused by El Niño, which has triggered a food shortage.
As part of Plan International's response team, I recently traveled to Zimbabwe to assess the situation -a country which only a few years ago suffered widespread food shortage. The reality is hard-hitting, heart-breaking and far worse than I'd imagined. It's clear this disaster deserves a lot more attention than it is getting. ...

More see link above.
Quoting 147. barbamz:

For all who are suffering from cold weather in the US and Canada, here a little bunch of heatwave news ;-)

20C and a water shortage: Sweden's having a heatwave
The Local (Sweden) Published: 05 Apr 2016 12:03 GMT 02:00
Forecasters from Sweden's SMHI weather agency told Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter that the unusual weather was down to the same air mass also expected to bring highs of more than 20C to Berlin and at least 25C in Vienna. ...


Temps in Europe earlier this afternoon. You see where temperatures are already soaring to summerly hights, loaded with Saharan dust (SAL) ...

Heat wave conditions grip central India
Press Trust of India | New Delhi April 5, 2016 Last Updated at 18:57 IST
Several parts of central India are experiencing heat wave conditions, with many cities and towns recording temperature over 40 degree Celsius, a phenomena not known to occur in the first week of April. ...

Vegetable prices soar in Malaysia amid heatwave
By Melissa Goh, Malaysia Bureau Chief, Channel NewsAsia, Posted 05 Apr 2016 14:08
Prices of greens have risen in Malaysia - some as much as 50 per cent, sellers at a local market say - as the country's vegetables wither under the extended spell of hot weather. ...

Oregon, Pacific Northwest could see record high temperatures this week
By KVAL Tuesday, April 5th 2016



Those temperatures in Sweden are really hot for this time of year. I used to live where it shows 15C , and it should be around 5C from what I remember. In 1999 we got 1m of snow on May 9th. Above freezing in north of the arctic circle is pretty unusual this early in the year too.
Critical Fire Danger across areas of the Southwest and Southern Plains.

I thought this map was pretty significant showing wind gusts as high as 55 mph across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.



the models predicts the cool arctic summer not Jb
This is looking like a pretty interesting setup developing for next week. It will all depend on how much Gulf moisture can get pulled into the setup.
Definitely a severe weather setup if the models continue to go with this into next week.
Quoting 153. islander101010:
the models predicts the cool arctic summer not Jb
Of course - intelligent and informed people know that - but intelligent and informed people also know that air temp is not the primary factor in Arctic sea ice annual melt, as was detailed in an earlier response to JB's dumb remark.
Quoting 151. OviedoWatcher:



Those temperatures in Sweden are really hot for this time of year. I used to live where it shows 15C , and it should be around 5C from what I remember. In 1999 we got 1m of snow on May 9th. Above freezing in north of the arctic circle is pretty unusual this early in the year too.


The whole map is interesting.
A lot of temps above freezing in the arctic seas.
The north of Italy seems to have 15-20/C in the area of the alps.
Very warm over Iceland up to +7/c and down into the east of the Mediterranean area is way above normal for the time of the year.
Cool here in southern Spain at about 12/c today but warming to 23/C tomorrow. We had about 4 inches of rain yesterday and over 36 hours Valencia Spain got more rain than in the last 4 months.


Gonna be HOT today and Tomorrow. Then sharply cooler and Rain chances of around 60% over two days, but the result forecast is only .13"... average is 73/49
Quoting 157. PedleyCA:



Gonna be HOT today and Tomorrow. Then sharply cooler and Rain chances of around 60% over two days, but the result forecast is only .13"



What's funny is your low temperatures stay the same and only your day time highs change.
Lows in the 50s at night would produce highs in the 70s here. Our humidity just isn't low enough for a 40 degree temperature swing during the day.
0.42 inches of rain tomorrow!



THIS IS GONNA BE GREAT!!!

Quoting 158. Sfloridacat5:



What's funny is your low temperatures stay the same and only your day time highs change.
Lows in the 50s at night would produce highs in the 70s here. Our humidity just isn't low enough for a 40 degree temperature swing during the day.
We seldom hit the average low, which in this case is 49.
Quoting 152. Sfloridacat5:

Critical Fire Danger across areas of the Southwest and Southern Plains.



Large fire now north of Woodward, OK:
Link
Recommended evacuation for Freedom, OK:

Fire Warning for Harper, Woodward, Woods Counties, Oklahoma
Active for next 2 hours · National Weather Service
This alert has been updated.
Posted 12 minutes ago
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF WOODS
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
A WILDFIRE WAS BURNING OUT OF CONTROL 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREEDOM
MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
Recommended actions
PEOPLE IN FREEDOM SHOULD EVACUATE NORTH ON HIGHWAY 50 THEN EAST ON
HIGHWAY 64 TOWARD ALVA.
Quoting 146. Neapolitan:

Well, let's go back a few years and see how well JB has done with previous Arctic sea ice predictions:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G-ozEvSFVg

Of course, he's also on record stating that 2011 would be the start of a long-term global cooling trend. He's *also* repeatedly demonstrated a near complete lack of understanding of physics, and fluid dynamics, and lots and lots of all that other science-y stuff...

Bottom line: JB should probably just stick with predicting sunrise and sunset times. He's been fairly accurate with those, as best I can tell.


JB would bury you if the two of you got into a "science-y stuff" debate.
Great update Mr Henson! Hoping for some April rains in Soo Cal.

Per NWS San Diego
THIS PATTERN WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END ON THU AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS
EAST AND WE COME UNDER THE CIRCULATION OF THE OFFSHORE CUT-OFF LOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...AND WITH PWS INCREASING
OVER ONE INCH...SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK OUT. A DEEP DRY LAYER
INITIALLY MAY ONLY RESULT IN SPRINKLES...BUT AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS THU/THU NIGHT...RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL. FOR
NOW...EXPECT ONE-QUARTER TO AROUND ONE INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH FRI...
BUT GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THIS STORM AND THE HIGHER PW AVAILABLE...IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME MODEL QPF INCREASE IN SUBSEQUENT
RUNS.

A COLDER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 140W ON THU.
THIS WILL PICK UP THE CUT-OFF LOW AND ABSORB IT AS AN OPEN WAVE ON
FRI. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AS THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
DRIFTS OVER SOCAL THROUGH FRI. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THE COLDER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
COAST WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND.

THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK AND BEST AREA OF LIFT WITH THE SECOND PACIFIC STORM...WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR MODERATE...TO LOCALLY
HEAVY QPF ACROSS SOCAL LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST NEXT WEEK IF THE
GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. THIS IMPLIES CONTINUED COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A
CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AT TIMES.

Here's hoping!
Quoting 161. ScottGridley:



Large fire now north of Woodward, OK:
Link


Horrible weather conditions for controlling a wild fire.
Quoting 163. luvtogolf:



JB would bury you if the two of you got into a "science-y stuff" debate.
JB has dug his own hole so deep so couldn't bury a bonfire on a frozen lake, he couldn't even bury a fish in the sea.
Quoting 142. Andrebrooks:

Not that one, the one where it shows the graphs of each El nino regions current temperature anomalies, and the trends over the months.
Link
WOW
Quoting 163. luvtogolf: JB would bury you if the two of you got into a "science-y stuff" debate.


That would be a very short debate. JB would open with his usual idiotic comments. I would open with Plank's Law which has been around since 1900 and fundamental thermodynamics which has been around since the 1850's. Checkmate in one move.

Really, it's no fun getting into a battle of wits against an unarmed opponent.

Quoting 163. luvtogolf:



JB would bury you if the two of you got into a "science-y stuff" debate.


of course, because "science-y" is to actual science as "truthiness" is to truth; it has nothing at all to do with the real thing, but rather what matters is mostly how you say it.
Quoting 98. BaltimoreBrian:

We went out to see the NCAA championship game 1 1/2 mile walk each way. I had my first burgerizza (q.v.). The temperature has dropped from this afternoon's 71°F. Considerably. The calories from the burgerizza and beer were not enough. I am a...




Quoting 98. BaltimoreBrian:



With the massive rise in diabetes since carbs became fashionable, you are probably on the right side of the pendulum (and the delicious side!).

Quoting 167. guygee:

JB has dug his own hole so deep so couldn't bury a bonfire on a frozen lake, he couldn't even bury a fish in the sea.


Yeah that global cooling is going to start any day now.
Any day.................,.

Quoting 174. wartsttocs:



Yeah that global cooling is going to start any day now.
Any day.................,.


2015-2016: Another fine cherry-pickers year for future denialists.
Quoting 164. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Great update Mr Henson! Hoping for some April rains in Soo Cal.

Per NWS San Diego
THIS PATTERN WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END ON THU AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS
EAST AND WE COME UNDER THE CIRCULATION OF THE OFFSHORE CUT-OFF LOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...AND WITH PWS INCREASING
OVER ONE INCH...SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK OUT. A DEEP DRY LAYER
INITIALLY MAY ONLY RESULT IN SPRINKLES...BUT AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS THU/THU NIGHT...RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL. FOR
NOW...EXPECT ONE-QUARTER TO AROUND ONE INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH FRI...
BUT GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THIS STORM AND THE HIGHER PW AVAILABLE...IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME MODEL QPF INCREASE IN SUBSEQUENT
RUNS.

A COLDER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 140W ON THU.
THIS WILL PICK UP THE CUT-OFF LOW AND ABSORB IT AS AN OPEN WAVE ON
FRI. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AS THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
DRIFTS OVER SOCAL THROUGH FRI. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THE COLDER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
COAST WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND.

THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK AND BEST AREA OF LIFT WITH THE SECOND PACIFIC STORM...WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR MODERATE...TO LOCALLY
HEAVY QPF ACROSS SOCAL LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST NEXT WEEK IF THE
GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. THIS IMPLIES CONTINUED COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A
CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AT TIMES.

Here's hoping!


Will keep the hills green a bit longer. Even though rainfall is down it has been showery and well-spaced this season so the hills are green and beautiful here in OC, CA.
Quoting 100. BaltimoreBrian:

Is anyone else amused when a scientific publication calls it "the El Niño"? See if you can find it in here.
Almost as funny as "Sierra mountains".
Big changes from weather between now and Saturday, today it was in the 40s and 50s for the most part, and on Saturday it will get much colder with a chance of snow.
Quoting 170. Gearsts:

WOW

I would like me some of that please!
Quoting 175. guygee:

2015-2016: Another fine cherry-pickers year for future denialists.


Yet we had 2014 set record warmth at a time with neutral El-Nino and a weak solar cycle 24. Looks like 2017 will be La Nina and a solar minimum in between weak cycles yet global warming will continue. The climate denier crowd don't really believe in solar cycles or El-Ninos anyway. Any strange and stupid "prediction" using any sort of flawed thinking will suffice as confirmation of the underlying conspiracy theory. Once one no longer applies they will move on to the next.
Just think for a moment......
Now the bar seems to be the third lowest summer Arctic sea ice area/extent. That is a pretty low one indeed.
What will the 2017 global temperature anomaly bar be? Third highest on record?
Is that pathetic bar really evidence of the properties of molecules being the greatest hoax ever?

TC Zena gaining shape and an eye. Source.


Current development of Zena's eye (updating).


This track looks somehow familiar. Remember Winston??

Villagers flee
The Fiji online, Repeka Nasiko, Wednesday, April 06, 2016
HUNDREDS of villagers fled their makeshift homes in the coastal district of Nakorotubu, Ra, out of fear the bad weather would be just as devastating as Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston.
A team from this newspaper travelled to the cyclone-ravaged region yesterday and found 27 evacuation centres packed with about 1065 people - already weary from the battering unleashed by Severe TC Winston. The number of evacuees was expected to increase overnight because more rain was forecast after revelation two more systems were headed for Fiji.
Villagers were not taking any chances when strong winds associated with a tropical disturbance to the northwest of Fiji began hammering their shelters, accompanied by unrelenting heavy downpours.
Nayavutoka Village headman Timoci Nabogibogi said about 20 households living in makeshift tents immediately relocated to higher grounds.
He said villagers from nearby settlements abandoned their homes to find secure shelters.
"The strong winds on Monday night blew away some of the tin roofs. We took down the tarpaulins and the tents and moved people to a more secure area," Mr Nabogibogi said. ...

Whole article see link above.

Tropical Cyclone Zena heading to Fiji
6th Apr 2016 7:39 AM
FIJI is bracing for its second tropical cyclone this year with the government today issuing a fresh storm alert.
Warnings have gone out for the central Lau and Lomaiviti island groups to prepare for damaging winds and flooding as Tropical Cyclone Zena tracks towards to the disaster-ravaged Pacific island nation.
The latest alert says the category one cyclone was 900km to the north west of Nadi earlier today, intensifying as approached. ...


I just hope conditions aren't that conducive for RI (rapid intensification) as they were some weeks ago with Winston!
Zika mystery deepens with evidence of nerve cell infections
CHICAGO | By Julie Steenhuysen, Life | Reuters, Tue Apr 5, 2016 7:15pm EDT

This probably isn't a post for sweet dreams, but nevertheless, have a good night and hope for a cool summer ;-)
bashing jb tonight. hum hes taught me alot about weather. remember his free videos? even paid for his service one yr. no complaints. locally all i know the level of the water has not changed. the record height overlapping the sea walls was back in nov. 1994 and has not come even close since then. east florida
.
Quoting 182. BaltimoreBrian:

U.S., Volkswagen may not reach emissions deal by April 21 Emission impossible, barbamz?

Ah, who knows, Brian. Not me for sure as I even don't own a car, and even if I would, I'd have no parking place in this increasingly crowded world, lol. Thus, here is the future (and now I'm really gone for my cushions):

Germany's bicycle autobahn
186. bwi
More brrr
187. bwi
North pole ice landing video.

Sadly, it looks like the ice floe cracked soon after and the camp trying to relocate.

Quoting 186. bwi:

More brrr

Click graphic to expand.

With March over 6 degrees above normal here I'm wondering if April will be cooler than March was.
Quoting 189. BaltimoreBrian:

With March over 6 degrees above normal here I'm wondering if April will be cooler than March was.


It was in the 80s over my spring break. On Sunday morning, we had a 10 degree wind chill with the winds. :( I just want the warm weather back.
ten day run with a little treat maybe in the sw atlantic at the end of the run

warmth don't rtn to lower lakes ne till after 15th of month


In other news, the DOW6 is on loan thanks to the National Science Foundation at Millersville University. I stood outside with the DOW taking practice measurements. We found the local water tower on the second try, lol. Not sure what it bounced off of the first time at the same distance...but at twice the height.

Josh Wurman gave a seminar to us last week, pretty funny guy. Talked to us about the M-scale, a tornado rating scale used by tracking damage to cows. M5 is steak tartar.
Quoting 163. luvtogolf:

JB would bury you if the two of you got into a "science-y stuff" debate.




You got to believe, washi! (Click graphic to expand)

Quoting 184. islander101010:

bashing jb tonight. hum hes taught me alot about weather. remember his free videos? even paid for his service one yr. no complaints. locally all i know the level of the water has not changed. the record height overlapping the sea walls was back in nov. 1994 and has not come even close since then. east florida
.


And again, you are using a subjective opinion to counter measurable facts. Again, I refer you to the tidal gauge measurements from around the area. Again, I refer you to the increasing intrusion of salt water westward onto the peninsula. Again, I refer you to the increased incidences of flooding throughout the coastal regions (notably Miami).

To counter the papers, research, and data on the subject, we have...your word? That just doesn't cut it. Where's your evidence other than you just "eyeballing" it?
While most forecasts for the 2016 Atlantic season appear to be suggesting a slightly below average season, I personally think that the season will be above average. Here is why:
-2015 had near-average activity despite very strong wind shear and dry air
-Analogs are used are from 1980s, not recent years.
-The Warm Pool in the Western Atlantic
-Below-normal wind shear in the Western Atlantic/GOM
-Wetter than normal Sahara projected on many models
-MDR unexpectedly warmed in 2015 that allowed for many storms to develop
-North Atlantic is actually expected to warm slightly from last year

If condescension was banned from the blog comments, many of the commenters would have nothing to write.

Criti's gotta neg.
If condensation was banned from the atmosphere we'd have no precipitation and a lot less to write about.
Quoting 195. BaltimoreBrian:

You got to believe, washi! (Click graphic to expand)


I'm finished with winter! Now dammit bring me my 80 degree weather! Thankfully we'll have a chance to escape this bi-polar weather in 2 weeks.We'll be taking a late spring break vacation down to our condo in FL since hubby and I had to work during the traditional one.At least we won't see the drunken teens and college kids by the loads.
88.7F here today, 93F @KRAL, got to use the water cooler for the first time in awhile.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
HURRICANE WARNING
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ZENA, CATEGORY THREE (16F)
12:00 PM FST April 6 2016
============================
East of Vanuatu
West of Viti Levu (Fiji)

A HURRICANE WARNING is in force for Vatulele, Beqa, Kadavu, and nearby smaller islands

A STORM WARNING is in force for Yasawa and Mamanuca Group, Viti Levu, Lomaiviti, and the southern Lau Group

A GALE WARNING is in force for the northern Lau Group


At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zena, Category Three (983 hPa) located 17.5S 172.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. Position FAIR based on hourly himawari-8 imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 22 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Deep convection remains persistent with eye discernible on visible imagery. Organization has has greatly improved in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 300 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 31C. System lies just south of an upper ridge and in a low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the south and east. System is being steered to the east southeast by the deep layer mean west northwest wind flow. Dvorak analysis based on B eye in B large surround with -1.0 adjustment due to W ring yields a DT=4.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Global models maintain a east southeast movement with some models indicating further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 19.0S 176.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.8S 178.7W - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 20.5S 170.4W - 65 knots (CAT 3)
Quoting 202. washingtonian115:

I'm finished with winter! Now dammit bring me my 80 degree weather! Thankfully we'll have a chance to escape this bi-polar weather in 2 weeks.We'll be taking a late spring break vacation down to our condo in FL since hubby and I had to work during the traditional one.At least we won't see the drunken teens and college kids by the loads.


Take me with you! I don't like this really cold weather....in April...like go away, I want tornadoes and thunderstorms.
Bad swing and a hit in the bunker.
Don't mess with Nea!
He's been around for awhile, and might teach you a few things.

Quoting 163. luvtogolf:



JB would bury you if the two of you got into a "science-y stuff" debate.
Quoting 183. barbamz:

Zika mystery deepens with evidence of nerve cell infections
CHICAGO | By Julie Steenhuysen, Life | Reuters, Tue Apr 5, 2016 7:15pm EDT

This probably isn't a post for sweet dreams, but nevertheless, have a good night and hope for a cool summer ;-)

Glad I read this after I got up.
Record patch of warm waters point to more global heat records being smashed


From hot oceans to shrinking Arctic ice and glaciers, the evidence of a warming planet has gone into overdrive in the first three months of 2016.

Sydney on Wednesday posted its hottest April day on record, with the 34.2-degree reading beating a mark that had stood for 30 years. Suburbs from Camden in the south-west to Richmond in the north-west topped 36 degrees.

Australia has also just posted its hottest March in more than a century of reliable data after a scorching heatwave to start the month that the Bureau of Meteorology said in some areas approached "record levels for any time of the year".

Read more: Link

Record patch of warm waters point to more global heat records being smashed


From hot oceans to shrinking Arctic ice and glaciers, the evidence of a warming planet has gone into overdrive in the first three months of 2016.

Sydney on Wednesday posted its hottest April day on record, with the 34.2-degree reading beating a mark that had stood for 30 years. Suburbs from Camden in the south-west to Richmond in the north-west topped 36 degrees.

Australia has also just posted its hottest March in more than a century of reliable data after a scorching heatwave to start the month that the Bureau of Meteorology said in some areas approached "record levels for any time of the year".

Read more: Link

Quoting 209. RobertWC:

Record patch of warm waters point to more global heat records being smashed


From hot oceans to shrinking Arctic ice and glaciers, the evidence of a warming planet has gone into overdrive in the first three months of 2016.

Sydney on Wednesday posted its hottest April day on record, with the 34.2-degree reading beating a mark that had stood for 30 years. Suburbs from Camden in the south-west to Richmond in the north-west topped 36 degrees.

Australia has also just posted its hottest March in more than a century of reliable data after a scorching heatwave to start the month that the Bureau of Meteorology said in some areas approached "record levels for any time of the year".

Read more: Link




This map from the link is worth posting:

Quoting 133. georgevandenberghe:



Summer 2007 was very warm in the arctic esp in the critical early summer season when ice melt starts. Don't remember a strong signal from 2012

Early summer season 2007 was decidely and prolonged cool. Summer itself was cool.
Yes, it was a strange year.
Reference e.g.: Link
CO2 monthly atmospheric increase for March is just in, at 404.83 ppm. This is an increase of 3.31 ppm over March last year.

Average for the first three months of 2016 is 403.8 ppm, compared with 400.6 ppm for the first three months of 2015, an increase of 3.2 ppm.

2015 holds the record for the biggest annual increase, compared to the previous year, at 3.05 ppm. This beat the long standing record of the 1998 El Nino year of 2.93 ppm.

This being the second year of a record El Nino, we can expect to see the record 2015 increase exceeded in 2016.

The impression I get is that these rises are way ahead of what might be expected if it were all down to increased fossil fuel use, so the scary monster of climate change induced positive feedbacks raises its ugly head.

El Nino is a factor, but the first year of the 97/98 event didn't produce a remarkable increase, unlike 2015. So, it may not all be about El Nino. I've a hunch warmer oceans may be absorbing a smaller fraction of man's output (see map at #211 below).

We live in interesting times.

Link
Models still calling for 3-4 storms from Thursday til next Thursday! Maybe we in Soo Cal can squeese an amazing April of rains from declining El Nino! A couple inches for the week would be real nice. Here's hoping.
Quoting 211. yonzabam:



This map from the link is worth posting:


Looking at this, it's pretty obvious why so many storms failed to intensify in the area just east of the Antilles.....
Quoting 167. guygee:

JB has dug his own hole so deep so couldn't bury a bonfire on a frozen lake, he couldn't even bury a fish in the sea.
Please, burying a bonfire, that would be interesting, and what is your expertise in burying a bonfire on a frozen lake? Just because someone has an opposing view, their is no reason to criticize them, after all if he is right, all the people on the opposing side are going to look really foolish.
Quoting 175. guygee:

2015-2016: Another fine cherry-pickers year for future denialists.
Not really, if you look at the data, it's really a good year for all the so called climate change experts on this site, actually the cooling of the Arctic is being forecast by one of the top models, and JB's prediction for cooling of the global temps won't be complete until about 2030 or so. Since their seems to be a lot of experts on this site today, could someone please tell me how sunspots affect the oceans temperatures?
Quoting 163. luvtogolf:



JB would bury you if the two of you got into a "science-y stuff" debate.
I seriously doubt that. But even so, I'm not the one who labels himself a "climate expert", then publicly makes one profoundly inaccurate proclamation after another just to please my cadre of low-information followers. (Also: I don't have a cadre of low-information followers. In fact, I don't have a cadre, period.)
Good Morning; the forecast for Conus today and current look:

220. elioe
Just yesterday, our weather service forecast cloudy, mostly rainy, and much less than +10C for today. This morning, when I woke up, the forecast max temperature had risen to +11C. The result: it has already peaked once at +14.7 at the nearest station (Tampere Härmälä), and may rise further as it's not even 3 pm.

It's definitely spring now, as there's not even any snow on the ground in most places.

Quoting 217. NativeSun:

...[T]he cooling of the Arctic is being forecast by one of the top models...
Which one would that be?
Quoting 217. NativeSun:

...[C]ould someone please tell me how sunspots affect the oceans temperatures?
On overall temperatures, there doesn't appear to be much of an effect at all:

222. beell
Quoting 193. Astrometeor:

In other news, the DOW6 is on loan thanks to the National Science Foundation at Millersville University. I stood outside with the DOW taking practice measurements. We found the local water tower on the second try, lol. Not sure what it bounced off of the first time at the same distance...but at twice the height.

Josh Wurman gave a seminar to us last week, pretty funny guy. Talked to us about the M-scale, a tornado rating scale used by tracking damage to cows. M5 is steak tartar.


The infamous "Moojita" scale, of course.

M0 tornado - cows in an open field are spun around parallel to the
wind flow and become mildly annoyed.
M1 tornado - cows are tipped over and "can't get up".
M2 tornado - cows begin rolling in the wind.
M3 tornado - cows tumble and bounce.
M4 tornado - cows are airborne.
M5 tornado - steak.

:)
And following up with the comment below by Yonzabam, the current rate of warming (the current positive feedback loop) is pretty astonishing:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/03/0 1/february_2016_s_shocking_global_warming_temperat ure_record.html


Update, March 12, 2016: Data released Saturday from NASA confim that February 2016 was not only the most unusually warm month ever measured globally, at 1.35 degrees Celsius above the long-term average—it was more than 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than the previously most unusually warm month ever measured: January 2016.* ("Most unusually warm" is not to be confused with "warmest ever measured." Average temperatures are much more difficult to calculate than deviations from average, for many technical reasons—including the fact that there's a strong seasonality in average global temperatures. Climate scientists also strongly prefer discussing deviations from average because that's what matters to plants, animals, and humans adapting to climate change.) The new NASA data confirms unofficial data released earlier this month showing a dramatic and ongoing surge in the planet's temperature—if anything, that data, upon which the previous versions of this post were based, were an underestimate. On Twitter, Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which maintains the NASA temperature database, noted that February’s temperature record was “special” and commented simply: “Wow.”

amaps

observation is always the first step. doing it for along time helps too.
And here is one of the charts for March 2016 issued a few days ago:


Quoting 216. NativeSun:

Please, burying a bonfire, that would be interesting, and what is your expertise in burying a bonfire on a frozen lake? Just because someone has an opposing view, their is no reason to criticize them, after all if he is right, all the people on the opposing side are going to look really foolish.
Bonfire Expertise: Lots of neighborhood ice skating parties "back in the woods" when young. An example "opposing view": The Earth is populated by giant invisible cockroaches. You can only "feel" them when you get uncomfortable looking at mathematics. Those scientists are going to look really foolish!
Quoting 224. islander101010:

observation is always the first step. doing it for along time helps too.
Other observations:
Sea Level Rise Hits Home at NASA
Watching Waters Rise Right Outside the Front Door

By Michael Carlowicz — Design by Joshua Stevens & Paul Przyborski — NASA Earth Observatory
August 26, 2015
And it is pretty clear from the charts/data that Alaska is essentially melting; a good article/summary here on this issue from last fall:

http://www.abqjournal.com/636719/news/global-warm ing-melting-ice-carving-changes-in-alaska.html

And what happens in Alaska isn’t staying in Alaska, because weather changes in the Arctic trigger changes in the jet stream and reverberate down south, including the dreaded polar vortex escape that has brought sub-freezing temperatures to great expanses of North America in recent winters, said Martin Jeffries, an Arctic scientist for the U.S. Office of Naval Research.

Warming’s effects seem to be speeding up. From 1959 to 1993, Alaska’s glaciers lost 57 billion tons of ice a year, but that jumped to almost 83 billion tons a year since 1994, according to Anthony Arendt, who co-authored a study on the subject this July. All but about five of Alaska’s 25,000 glaciers are shrinking.

Quoting 221. Neapolitan:

Which one would that be? On overall temperatures, there doesn't appear to be much of an effect at all:



You posted some complete blanks again...
Quoting 217. NativeSun:

Not really, if you look at the data, it's really a good year for all the so called climate change experts on this site, actually the cooling of the Arctic is being forecast by one of the top models, and JB's prediction for cooling of the global temps won't be complete until about 2030 or so. Since their seems to be a lot of experts on this site today, could someone please tell me how sunspots affect the oceans temperatures?


Go do your own homework.

Huber and Knutti (2011): "Even for a reconstruction with high variability in total irradiance, solar forcing contributed only about 0.07°C (0.03-0.13°C) to the warming since 1950."
Erlykin 2009: "We deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to solar activity is 14% of the observed global warming."
Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980."
Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2? confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%."
Lean 2008: "According to this analysis, solar forcing contributed negligible long-term warming in the past 25 years and 10% of the warming in the past 100 years..."
Lockwood 2008: "The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings."
Ammann 2007: "Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century."
Lockwood 2007: "The observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanism is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified."
Foukal 2006 concludes "The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years."
Scafetta 2006 says "since 1975 global warming has occurred much faster than could be reasonably expected from the sun alone."
Usoskin 2005 conclude "during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source.
Solanki 2004 reconstructs 11,400 years of sunspot numbers using radiocarbon concentrations, finding "solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades".
Haigh 2003 says "Observational data suggest that the Sun has influenced temperatures on decadal, centennial and millennial time-scales, but radiative forcing considerations and the results of energy-balance models and general circulation models suggest that the warming during the latter part of the 20th century cannot be ascribed entirely to solar effects."
Stott 2003 increased climate model sensitivity to solar forcing and still found "most warming over the last 50 yr is likely to have been caused by increases in greenhouse gases."
Solanki 2003 concludes "the Sun has contributed less than 30% of the global warming since 1970."
Lean 1999 concludes "it is unlikely that Sun–climate relationships can account for much of the warming since 1970."
Waple 1999 finds "little evidence to suggest that changes in irradiance are having a large impact on the current warming trend."
Frolich 1998 concludes "solar radiative output trends contributed little of the 0.2°C increase in the global mean surface temperature in the past decade."
Schurer 2013 finds that the sun is unlikely to have caused more than 0.15°C of the observed approximately 1°C warming over the past 300 years.
Been doing some spare time reading on the polar jet, and how it works, and the basic principle (in case someone wants to jump on the record cold snaps for parts of the US recently) is that the greater the temp differential between the air masses adjacent to the polar jet (the cold arctic air to the north vs. the warmer continental air over the US), the faster the jet rotates and in a more uniform "circular pattern". However, as the Arctic warms, the differential is not as great and the jet slows down and gets "wavy" often leading to these bitter cold snaps in the lower latitudes during Winters (when the jet should be at it's fastest and most circular configuration as opposed to in the Summer when the temp differentials are not as great) and record warm snaps in the middle of Winter for some regions. This explains the temperature extremes between bitter cold snaps and bitter heat waves that we have seen more often in recent years across the Northern Hemisphere across the US/Russia/Northern Europe, etc.

The NH polar jet configuration as the result of Arctic warming and melt has become a literal roller coaster and brief periods of bitter cold does not mean that the earth is cooling.


more snow for april another 9 days to go before the cold is gone back north where it come from

Wisteria flowers appear to be almost a total loss this morning in College Park. I've never seen it damaged before by frost and I really like Wisteria because of the powerful fragrance even if the stuff is like Northern Kudzu.
Quoting 167. guygee:

JB has dug his own hole so deep so couldn't bury a bonfire on a frozen lake, he couldn't even bury a fish in the sea.


Bonfire on a frozen lake. What COULD go wrong??!!
Quoting 212. cRRKampen:


Early summer season 2007 was decidely and prolonged cool. Summer itself was cool.
Yes, it was a strange year.
Reference e.g.: Link


The Beaufort Sea and East Siberian Sea melted out record early and completely due to warm weather in June which started the melt a little early and much faster than normal once started. This was well south of 80N. This early melt out exposed open water to the sun by mid July and SSTs got well above freezing, (near 8C) higher than 2012 or any year since in that region and freeze up was a few weeks delayed therefore. That region had the most extreme departures that summer.
The Moojita scale as updated in 2011
M6 Losing your steak and eggs when you see bloated, dead cattle in a pasture the morning after an EF4.

In other words, I respectfully submit...
Dead cows ain't no joke.
Quoting 223. weathermanwannabe:

And following up with the comment below by Yonzabam, the current rate of warming (the current positive feedback loop) is pretty astonishing:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/03/0 1/february_2016_s_shocking_global_warming_temperat ure_record.html


Update, March 12, 2016: Data released Saturday from NASA confim that February 2016 was not only the most unusually warm month ever measured globally, at 1.35 degrees Celsius above the long-term average—it was more than 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than the previously most unusually warm month ever measured: January 2016.* ("Most unusually warm" is not to be confused with "warmest ever measured." Average temperatures are much more difficult to calculate than deviations from average, for many technical reasons—including the fact that there's a strong seasonality in average global temperatures. Climate scientists also strongly prefer discussing deviations from average because that's what matters to plants, animals, and humans adapting to climate change.) The new NASA data confirms unofficial data released earlier this month showing a dramatic and ongoing surge in the planet's temperature—if anything, that data, upon which the previous versions of this post were based, were an underestimate. On Twitter, Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which maintains the NASA temperature database, noted that February’s temperature record was “special” and commented simply: “Wow.”

amaps


Nothing new here.
Quoting 226. guygee:

Bonfire Expertise: Lots of neighborhood ice skating parties "back in the woods" when young. An example "opposing view": The Earth is populated by giant invisible cockroaches. You can only "feel" them when you get uncomfortable looking at mathematics. Those scientists are going to look really foolish!
Darn, you must have the good stuff, math was one of my many strong points in college, and seems so with my son. Still you would have a good debate with JB, and maybe he could teach you a few things or vice versa, but still the invisible cockroaches, maybe grilled on a bonfire on thin ice, you should try it again.
so its gonna have to be like this
Quoting 238. luvtogolf:



But he can bash, criticize and put down others (just like he did JB) and you'll plus his comment.
Quoting 238. luvtogolf:



But he can bash, criticize and put down others (just like he did JB) and you'll plus his comment.
Seems like the mantra of a lot of bloggers around here, on the subject of climate change, it's always better to look into both sides of the debate, at least this way you will learn a little from both sides.
247. OKsky
I bet Joe Bastardi is like the next galileo. /s
Side note: every time I see his name I think "from a basket", lol.
Quoting 238. luvtogolf:



But he can bash, criticize and put down others (just like he did JB) and you'll plus his comment.

He gives arguments that are a total blank for NS or you - you simply show no sign of seeing them.
So we already know you will repeat the exact same nonsense tomorrow, just like we've been seeing for years.
Now.
You will not blame the victims.
You will not berate those who try to give you some bona fide information time and time again at the cost of their time and patience.
You will say a heart felt 'Thank you very much' for a post like #211 by Neapolitan and you will parse that information.
Else you deserve bashing and trust me, I like to wield that hammer.


249. OKsky
Quoting 245. NativeSun:

Seems like the mantra of a lot of bloggers around here, on the subject of climate change, it's always better to look into both sides of the debate, at least this way you will learn a little from both sides.


Is that like both sides of the evolution debate, or how about the gravity debate?
Quoting 245. NativeSun:

Seems like the mantra of a lot of bloggers around here, on the subject of climate change, it's always better to look into both sides of the debate, at least this way you will learn a little from both sides.

Nice try.
As if mathematicians or for that matter anyone could learn something from 'the other side' who states that Pi is a whole number or something.
Quoting 224. islander101010:

observation is always the first step. doing it for along time helps too.
I suggest one observation you could do to verify your 30 years of observations, going forward. Set a post in the water of the inlet or whatever you have close by that connects to the ocean, and mark the post with wide stripes 1 foot apart, narrower stripes halfway between the wide ones, and thinner stripes dividing the remaining spaces equally in half. Get a surveyor's level and sighting from the level of a fixed piece of your house, note what mark on the post comes closest to your level and paint that one red. Then observe the water level at one month intervals, each month at local low tide or high tide, but always the same. I think after a year or two you will start to see a difference in how high the average tides come. Keep records carefully of the distance the tides reach from your red mark.

OMG -- science!
Quoting 245. NativeSun:

Seems like the mantra of a lot of bloggers around here, on the subject of climate change, it's always better to look into both sides of the debate, at least this way you will learn a little from both sides.


here's the difference between deniers and those who believe in climate change.

Deniers refuse to look at the data. Any data that proves or supports that anthropogenic climate change is real and happening is ignored.

Those who believe in anthropogenic climate change hope and pray they are wrong. They hope the scientific consensus (and trust me, it is a consensus) eventually reverses and they figure out that temperatures are increasing through natural means and our life as we know it, isn't in danger. We read articles that refute climate change in the hopes that it actually has hard evidence that anthropogenic climate change isn't happening and that it could be the beginning of a change in understanding of climate change.

But has much as we hope it happens, it hasn't happened yet. The other side has yet to provide any meaningful evidence that humans aren't a primary contributor to climate change.

That is the difference my friend. Believers hope they are wrong, deniers refuse to be wrong no matter what.
well I hope iam wrong but iam likely not
faster and faster
Quoting 241. NativeSun:

Nothing new here.
If you are in the camp that disagrees with 97% of the worlds scientists on this issue and are unwilling to open your eyes and change position.......................................... ... .
april should show a cooling over eastern NA as long as the latter half of april don't warm too much too fast
actually the cooling of the Arctic is being forecast by one of the top models,

Hack that furball up , I for one would love to see it.
Quoting 205. Astrometeor:



Take me with you! I don't like this really cold weather....in April...like go away, I want tornadoes and thunderstorms.
The birds have been almost silent these last couple of days because of the old.I don't expect to hear any real singing until next week when the temps rebound some.
Quoting 237. georgevandenberghe:



Bonfire on a frozen lake. What COULD go wrong??!!

Answer: Nothing.

Quoting 260. RobertWC:

actually the cooling of the Arctic is being forecast by one of the top models,

Hack that furball up , I for one would love to see it.

I was curious as well, so on Tropicaltidbits.com I ran the CFSv2, CanSIPS and NMME climate models through the summer over the Northern hemisphere. No visible indictation of any cold pattern that I can discern, some cool anomalies from September on, but during peak melt in June through August there are warm anomalies on or near Greenland.
Quoting 249. OKsky:



Is that like both sides of the evolution debate, or how about the gravity debate?
Totally different, since both have already been proven, not so much with climate change, as to the cause of the warming world.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 6m6 minutes ago
I have a hard time calling this June SSTA forecast "unfavorable" for Atlantic hurricane season. More like "neutral."
267. OKsky
Quoting 265. NativeSun:

Totally different, since both have already been proven, not so much with climate change, as to the cause of the warming world.


Really though?! What do you think is putting all the CO2 up there? Aliens?
EDIT: btw, Im glad you at least acknowledge that the planet is warming... I remember 10-20 years ago your ilk denied that as well.
Quoting 265. NativeSun:

Totally different, since both have already been proven, not so much with climate change, as to the cause of the warming world.

Yes so much.
Scientific agreement wrt climate change and its cause is even larger than it is on evolution theory.
Quoting 253. pipelines:



here's the difference between deniers and those who believe in climate change.

Deniers refuse to look at the data. Any data that proves or supports that anthropogenic climate change is real and happening is ignored.

Those who believe in anthropogenic climate change hope and pray they are wrong. They hope the scientific consensus (and trust me, it is a consensus) eventually reverses and they figure out that temperatures are increasing through natural means and our life as we know it, isn't in danger. We read articles that refute climate change in the hopes that it actually has hard evidence that anthropogenic climate change isn't happening and that it could be the beginning of a change in understanding of climate change.

But has much as we hope it happens, it hasn't happened yet. The other side has yet to provide any meaningful evidence that humans aren't a primary contributor to climate change.

That is the difference my friend. Believers hope they are wrong, deniers refuse to be wrong no matter what.
If you really look into the debate, of both sides, on this blog, the pro climate change group totally believes man is responsible for the Earths temps are rising due to CO2, while the other side believes their are more natural causes, plus a small part is caused by man. Of course man contributes to climate change, with all the air and water pollution around the world, what do you think will happen to the environment, and the climate around the world. This is where we need to decide if we will spend all the money on trying to stop CO2 from rising, if we really can, or if we could put all this knowledge and money into something we can actually control, which is all the pollutants we are pouring into the air and water. If this was accomplished, I would be totally surprised if this didn't help solve a lot more of our problems including rising temps.
Quoting 258. weathermanwannabe:

If you are in the camp that disagrees with 97% of the worlds scientists on this issue and are unwilling to open your eyes and change position.......................................... ... .
Didn't say that Wannabe.
Quoting 269. NativeSun:

If you really look into the debate, of both sides, on this blog, the pro climate change group totally believes man is responsible for the Earths temps are rising due to CO2

Know.
Believing is for in the church.
Quoting 253. pipelines:

here's the difference between deniers and those who believe in climate change.

Deniers refuse to look at the data. Any data that proves or supports that anthropogenic climate change is real and happening is ignored.

Those who believe in anthropogenic climate change hope and pray they are wrong. They hope the scientific consensus (and trust me, it is a consensus) eventually reverses and they figure out that temperatures are increasing through natural means and our life as we know it, isn't in danger. We read articles that refute climate change in the hopes that it actually has hard evidence that anthropogenic climate change isn't happening and that it could be the beginning of a change in understanding of climate change.

But has much as we hope it happens, it hasn't happened yet. The other side has yet to provide any meaningful evidence that humans aren't a primary contributor to climate change.

That is the difference my friend. Believers hope they are wrong, deniers refuse to be wrong no matter what.

Nice clarification. Might I offer a suggestion for tightening things up a bit. WU member Vis0 did the same for me a little while back. Consider using another phrase besides "climate change believer". One does not "believe" in gravity and other widely proven scientific phenomena. However, one can deny science or be anti-science at their own peril. People who deny science are anything but skeptics. So one should never use the term "climate change skeptic".

As a less important consideration, how about a different phrase besides "climate change" - albeit that would be harder since it is so commonly used. Climate change was a term popularized by George W. Bush pollster Frank Luntz, who had argued that the Bush White House should use climate change instead of global warming because it sounded less scary. Also it turns out that the climate is always changing and deniers often love to point that out.

A better term is "Climate Disruption". We are disrupting our climate in an unprecedented way, as poignantly conveyed by studies that show the rate at which we are adding CO2 to the atmosphere - which is 10 to 50 times faster than the last mass extinction event ( 5C temps) some 56 million years ago.
Quoting 267. OKsky:



Really though?! What do you think is putting all the CO2 up there? Aliens?
EDIT: btw, Im glad you at least acknowledge that the planet is warming... I remember 10-20 years ago your ilk denied that as well.

My Ilk, exactly what is my Ilk, and exactly what is your expertise in climate change, besides something you read on the internet. Do you have a degree in any type of climate science or weather? Have I personally attacked you in any way, the temps are rising, but what are the causes, that's the difference between the pro climate change bloggers, and the people on the other side of the debate in this blog.
Quoting 242. NativeSun:

Darn, you must have the good stuff, math was one of my many strong points in college, and seems so with my son. Still you would have a good debate with JB, and maybe he could teach you a few things or vice versa, but still the invisible cockroaches, maybe grilled on a bonfire on thin ice, you should try it again.


Actually in Florida they are both huge and visible.. in huge numbers! Building bonfires on ice is tough there though
Quoting 272. VibrantPlanet:


Nice clarification. Might I offer a suggestion for tightening things up a bit. WU member Vis0 did the same for me a little while back. Consider using another phrase besides "climate change believer". One does not "believe" in gravity and other widely proven scientific phenomena. However, one can deny science or be anti-science at their own peril. People who deny science are anything but skeptics. So one should never use the term "climate change skeptic".

As a less important consideration, how about a different phrase besides "climate change" - albeit that would be harder since it is so commonly used. Climate change was a term popularized by George W. Bush pollster Frank Luntz, who had argued that the Bush White House should use climate change instead of global warming because it sounded less scary. Also it turns out that the climate is always changing and deniers often love to point that out.

A better term is "Climate Disruption". We are disrupting our climate in an unprecedented way, as poignantly conveyed by studies that show the rate at which we are adding CO2 to the atmosphere - which is 10 to 50 times faster than the last major mass extinction event ( 5C temps) some 56 million years ago.
I like that term, Climate Disruption is a very descriptive way of stating what man and nature are doing to the atmosphere. Man is pouring a lot more into the air, then co2,and don't forget water pollution.
Quoting 212. cRRKampen:


Early summer season 2007 was decidely and prolonged cool. Summer itself was cool.
Yes, it was a strange year.
Reference e.g.: Link


This conflicts with what I read from my source

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2007/10/#14Augu st


Quoting 275. georgevandenberghe:



Actually in Florida they are both huge and visible.. in huge numbers! Building bonfires on ice is tough there though
Yes, they are better known as Palmetto Bugs. maybe we can ship a few up North, for those who like to build bonfires on thin ice.
280. OKsky
Quoting 274. NativeSun:

My Ilk, exactly what is my Ilk, and exactly what is your expertise in climate change, besides something you read on the internet. Do you have a degree in any type of climate science or weather? Have I personally attacked you in any way, the temps are rising, but what are the causes, that's the difference between the pro climate change bloggers, and the people on the other side of the debate in this blog.


By "your ilk" I meant anti-science minded republicans parroting whatever talking points oil industry lobbyists want FOX news and talk radio to spread. You keep talking about a "debate", please show where this "debate" is occurring. Is it among climate scientists or are you getting this stuff from the rightwing blogosphere? ... and its been the same story for decades except as I mentioned before the talking points on the denier side keep slowly shifting towards acceptance. I have been watching you comment on this blog for months and your whole world-view on this subject seems to be constructed out of red-herrings and shifting goalposts. Me having a degree or not is irrelevant.... it doesn't change facts about the physics of greenhouse gases... you should read up on that instead of using an appeal to authority as a proxy for thought.
Quoting 278. georgevandenberghe:



This conflicts with what I read from my source

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2007/10/#14Augu st




Figure 4, June-July.
Where the pack was, almost no anomaly (at least at surface level, which for the Arctic 925 hPa already is not - inversion the rule). Hottest anomalies where the ice had anomously already gone.
The point is air temp in JJ and most of A is not the relevant thing in Arctic ice melt. Most of the melting happens from below in the first place. Then the 2007 season was especially sunny in a region accustomed to low stratus (which protects the ice in summertime). 2012 saw something of an opposite phenomenon with the ice ravaged by storms, one of them very deep indeed and these have a dispersing effect on the ice below (by way of Ekman).

Air temp in the other months are a different thing. We are looking at a great test case for this right now.
Here is a good example (from an article today) on the issue of a more powerful Nation (China to the North) trying to help alleviate some issues downstream for one of the poorer neighbors (Vietnam) to south in the context of drought; a good example of what we will more of in the near future as people try to work together to ameliorate some of the effects of climate change:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/04/mekong-meg a-drought-erodes-food-security


Several factors reduced the Mekong to a trickle this year, says Leocadio Sebastian, regional program leader for the International Rice Research Institute’s office in Hanoi. “El Niño contributed to the drought by reducing rains, and this may be exacerbated by climate change,” he says. Upstream dams, a perennial concern in Southeast Asia, have also constricted flow. Under normal flow conditions, Sebastian says, “the river’s fresh water drives more saline water back to the sea.” China, which has often come under criticism from environmentalists for building and financing dams on the Mekong, is now attempting to ameliorate conditions: It is currently releasing water from a major Mekong dam in Yunnan, the Jinghong hydropower station, to alleviate shortages downstream, the state news agencyXinhua reports.

Launch update

Forecast is 90% go for 4:43pm on Friday. They did a mock countdown with a brief test fire yesterday. This is SpaceX's first Dragon launch since the one that failed last June. Turns out they are expected to land the first stage on the ASDS barge ~210mile Northeast of Cape Canaveral. Apparently, launching to the ISS isn't considered high performance & it should be able to return to launch site (RTLS), like it did for the first time last December. So either the FAA didn't give permission to land at Landing Zone 1 (LZ-1) or Space X is using this opportunity to fine tune landing on the ASDS Barge. If Friday's launch is scrubbed weather is also 90% go for a 4:20pm launch on Saturday.
Quoting 262. washingtonian115:

The birds have been almost silent these last couple of days because of the old.I don't expect to hear any real singing until next week when the temps rebound some.
they be huddling amongst the branches of the evergreens here staying warm and dry as best as can be
Quoting 283. Skyepony:

Launch update

Forecast is 90% go for 4:43pm on Friday. They did a mock countdown with a brief test fire yesterday. This is SpaceX's first Dragon launch since the one that failed last June. Turns out they are expected to land the first stage on the ASDS barge ~210mile Northeast of Cape Canaveral. Apparently, launching to the ISS isn't considered high performance & it should be able to return to launch site (RTLS), like it did for the first time last December. So either the FAA didn't give permission to land at Landing Zone 1 (LZ-1) or Space X is using this opportunity to fine tune landing on the ASDS Barge. If Friday's launch is scrubbed weather is also 90% go for a 4:20pm launch on Saturday.


Does this spacecraft have anyone on board?

unmanned at this time they still be fine tuning things before a manned launch is to occur if ever thinking its mostly gonna be used for cargo and sat payloads myself or a while yet
Quoting 262. washingtonian115:

The birds have been almost silent these last couple of days because of the old.I don't expect to hear any real singing until next week when the temps rebound some.


Very few frog sounds since Saturday either. Saturday was the last really noisy day
(SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transport services company with its headquarters in Hawthorne, California, USA. It was founded in 2002 by former PayPal entrepreneur and Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk with the goal of creating the technologies to reduce space transportation costs and enable the colonization of Mars. It has developed the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 launch vehicles, both of which were designed from conception to eventually become reusable, and the Dragon spacecraft which is flown into orbit by the Falcon 9 launch vehicle to supply the International Space Station (ISS) with cargo. A manned version of Dragon is in development
Quoting 286. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


unmanned at this time they still be fine tuning things before a manned launch is to occur if ever thinking its mostly gonna be used for cargo and sat payloads myself or a while yet


If it is ever manned, where will it go? Mars?
I would say the moon first a couple of times for practice then eventually on too the 5 year trip to mars
Quoting 290. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I would say the moon first a couple of times for practice then eventually on too the 5 year trip to mars

Woot! Someone going back to the moon!
Quoting 276. NativeSun:

I like that term, Climate Disruption is a very descriptive way of stating what man and nature are doing to the atmosphere. Man is pouring a lot more into the air, and don't forget water.


Your first quote ever confirming the truth. No doubt, it will come with a harbinger of truth denied. But it's a start. Anyone been paying attention to climate the last two years???? A'int nothing changed but the times, and CLIMATE! Anyone see the revision on ocean rise? No, because we're incredibly uninformed on the facts! But we're entertained by Trump and other ignorance. Are you not entertained!? Just ignore the rapidly changing world going on in real and measurable ways.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 282. weathermanwannabe:

Here is a good example (from an article today) on the issue of a more powerful Nation (China to the North) trying to help alleviate some issues downstream for one of the poorer neighbors (Vietnam) to south in the context of drought; a good example of what we will more of in the near future as people try to work together to ameliorate some of the effects of climate change:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/04/mekong-meg a-drought-erodes-food-security


Several factors reduced the Mekong to a trickle this year, says Leocadio Sebastian, regional program leader for the International Rice Research Institute’s office in Hanoi. “El Niño contributed to the drought by reducing rains, and this may be exacerbated by climate change,” he says. Upstream dams, a perennial concern in Southeast Asia, have also constricted flow. Under normal flow conditions, Sebastian says, “the river’s fresh water drives more saline water back to the sea.” China, which has often come under criticism from environmentalists for building and financing dams on the Mekong, is now attempting to ameliorate conditions: It is currently releasing water from a major Mekong dam in Yunnan, the Jinghong hydropower station, to alleviate shortages downstream, the state news agencyXinhua reports.


Maybe if they didn't build the dams in the first place, they would not have a shortage of water.
296. OKsky
Quoting 294. NativeSun:

By asking what my ILK was, I would like to know why are you attacking me, and how do you know what side of the debate I am on. When there are two sides of opposing ideas, with scientific proof stated by both sides, then you have a debate. I could be pulling your chain you know, sometimes I find it funny to see all these responses to something that none of us on this blog have any control over. You know what would really be funny, if J, and his Ilk, like you state, is right after all this is settled in a few years. Oksky, one more question, in your expertise, what effect do sunspots have on Ocean temps?

This issue has been settled for decades. There is no actual debate. You are in denial, which is why you are deaf to these points.
Also, I already answered your sunspot question the first time you asked it and you ignored it.... again deaf thanks to denial.

Edit: and if you are just trolling and saying stuff that you don't actually stand for... then yay for you I guess...
297. vis0
Quoting 272. VibrantPlanet:


Nice clarification. Might I offer a suggestion for tightening things up a bit. WU member Vis0 did the same for me a little while back. Consider using another phrase besides "climate change believer". One does not "believe" in gravity and other widely proven scientific phenomena. However, one can deny science or be anti-science at their own peril. People who deny science are anything but skeptics. So one should never use the term "climate change skeptic".

As a less important consideration, how about a different phrase besides "climate change" - albeit that would be harder since it is so commonly used. Climate change was a term popularized by George W. Bush pollster Frank Luntz, who had argued that the Bush White House should use climate change instead of global warming because it sounded less scary. Also it turns out that the climate is always changing and deniers often love to point that out.

A better term is "Climate Disruption". We are disrupting our climate in an unprecedented way, as poignantly conveyed by studies that show the rate at which we are adding CO2 to the atmosphere - which is 10 to 50 times faster than the last mass extinction event ( 5C temps) some 56 million years ago.
i like climate disruption, but the problem is if one changes the name now people that are trying to make a decision will think or be led to think that there goes "those"(scientists, aGW believers  or science upholders on aGW) changing "its" name cause they are covering something up.  
 
As to skeptics i use 2 spellings.
 
Skeptic is as to people whom are just learning or young adults just reading all sides of the arguments, therefore they are actually reading real science papers from the 1950s-1970s when science REALLY began to notice something is happening to the planet as to the long term changes.  Since those learning have to read both sides they have skepticism AS TO ALL SIDES till they read the science papers from the 1970s till...
 
The other version of skeptic has either 1 or 2 dollar signs as in, "$keptic$" or "Skeptic$".
 
Simply stated, odds are these people have a point of view driven by money/wealth/greed even power. The power can be through several methods of reinforcing just ones core belief be it through  through connections or group they think they belong to. An example is as to watching just 1 TV newscast be it just liberal or conservative. In just watching one side one tends to feel they are part of the "in crowd/gang" cause all one hears is ..."your right they're wrong...", in this case it seems that a certain conservative newscast is the main denier of science studies when it shows aGW is real. Then there are people who made their money via businesses that are known to produce chemicals / pollutants that damage the planet...big time to make their money..