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California's Sierra Snowpack Only 12% of Average, a Record Low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2014

California's first significant snow storm of 2014 hit the Sierras on Wednesday and Thursday, dumping up to 2 feet of snow, with a melted water equivalent of up to two inches. However, this modest snowstorm was not enough to keep the Sierra snowpack from recording its lowest snow amounts in more than 50 years of record keeping during Thursday's Sierra Snow Survey. The survey found a snow pack that was only 12% of normal for this time of year. Until Thursday, the lowest statewide snowpack measurement at this time of year was 21% of average, in 1991 and 1963, according to the Los Angeles Times. Since snowpack in the Sierras forms a crucial source of water for California, the dismal snow survey results are a huge concern.


Figure 1. Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Survey Program for the Department of Water Resources, walks leaves a snow covered meadow after the second snow survey of the year near Echo Summit, Calif., Thursday, Jan. 30, 2014. Despite the overnight snow storm the survey showed the snow depth at 12.4 inches with a water content of only 1.4 inches for this location at this time of the year. Gehrke said that while the recent snow fall will help, it is not enough to impact the water supply.(AP Photo)

The forecast: little drought relief in sight
One of the most persistent and intense ridges of high pressure ever recorded in North America has been anchored over the West Coast since December 2012. While the ridge has occasionally broken down and allowed low pressure systems to leak though, these storms have mostly brought spotty and meager precipitation to California, resulting in California's driest year on record during 2013. January 2014 could well be its driest January on record. The ridge inevitably builds back after each storm, clamping down on any moisture reaching the state. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems tend to travel along the axis of the jet stream, these storms are being carried along the axis of the ridge, well to the north of California and into Southeast Alaska, leaving California exceptionally dry. The latest runs of the GFS and European models show that the ridge is now building back, and it appears likely that California will see no significant precipitation until at least February 7. A weak upper level low will move along the coast on Sunday and spread some light rain along the immediate coast, but this precipitation will generally be less than 0.25"--too little to have any significant impact on the drought. The ridge will not be as intense when it builds back, though, which gives me some hope that a low pressure system will be able to break the ridge by mid-February and bring the most significant rains of the winter rainy season to California.


Figure 2. One of the key water supply reservoirs for Central California, Lake Oroville, as seen on January 20, 2014. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

Worst California drought in 500 years?
UC Berkeley paleoclimatologist B. Lynn Ingram, author of "The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow", said in an interview, “this could potentially be the driest water year in 500 years.” Her research on tree rings shows that California has not experienced such an extreme drought since 1580. "If you go back thousands of years, you see that droughts can go on for years if not decades, and there were some dry periods that lasted over a century, like during the Medieval period and the middle Holocene. The 20th century was unusually mild here, in the sense that the droughts weren’t as severe as in the past. It was a wetter century, and a lot of our development has been based on that." It's no wonder, then, that the overall agricultural impact of the drought could reach $1 billion this year, according to the Fresno-based Westlands Water District.

California's drought woes are part of an on-going 14-year Western U.S. drought that began in 2000, and peaked between 2000 - 2004. A 2012 study titled, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, found that the 2000 - 2004 drought was the most severe Western North America event of its kind since the last mega drought over 800 years ago, during the years 1146 - 1151. The paper analyzed the latest generation of climate models used for the 2013 IPCC report, which project that the weather conditions that spawned the 2000 - 2004 drought will be the new normal in the Western U.S. by 2030, and will be considered extremely wet by the year 2100. If these dire predictions of a coming "megadrought" are anywhere close to correct, it will be extremely challenging for the Southwest U.S. to support a growing population in the coming decades.

Megadroughts in the Western U.S. can develop from natural causes, as well, and the current pattern of cooler than average ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific and warmer than average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic increase the odds of drought conditions like the ones we have seen during the current megadrought. Edward Cook, director of the Tree Ring Laboratory at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, N.Y., said at a presentation last month at the American Geophysical Union meeting that tree ring data show that the area of the West that was affected by severe drought in the Medieval period was much higher and much longer than the current drought. It is “indeed pretty scary,” Cook said. “One lasted 29 years. One lasted 28 years. They span the entire continental United States." Two megadroughts in the Sierra Nevada of California lasted between 100 and 200 years. Bobby Magill at Climate Center has more on Dr. Cook's presentation in a post, Is the West’s Dry Spell Really a Megadrought?
 


Figure 3. Normalized precipitation over Western North America (five-year mean) from 22 climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, as summarized by Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America. The horizontal line marks the precipitation level of the 2000 - 2004 drought, the worst of the past 800 years. Droughts of this intensity are predicted to be the new normal by 2030, and will be considered an outlier of extreme wetness by 2100. The paper states: "This impending drydown of western North America is consistent with present trends in snowpack decline as well as expected in-creases in aridity and extreme climate events,including drought, and is driven by anthropogenically forced increases in temperature with coincident increases in evapotranspiration and decreases in soil moisture. Although regional precipitation patterns are difficult to forecast, climate models tend to underestimate the extent and severity of drought relative to available observations. As such, actual reductions in precipitation may be greater than shown. Forecasted precipitation patterns are consistent with a probable twenty-first century megadrought." Image credit: Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, Nature Geoscience 5, 551-555, Published online 29 JULY 2012, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1529, www.nature.com/naturegeoscience.

Related posts
Unprecedented Cut in Colorado River Flow Ordered, Due to Drought, my August 2013 post.

Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger, my November 2012 post.

How Two Reservoirs Have Become Billboards For What Climate Change Is Doing To The American West, August 12, 2013 climateprogress.org post by Tom Kenworthy.

Scientists Predicted A Decade Ago Arctic Ice Loss Would Worsen Western Droughts. Is That Happening Already?, June 2013 post by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Twenty Cities At Risk of Water Shortages, August 14, 2013 wunderground news post by Nick Wiltgen

‪If There's Global Warming...Why Is It So Cold?‬
It's been top-ten coldest January on record in the Upper Midwest, and much colder than average over much of the Eastern U.S. However, the that isn't the case over other portions of the globe, including the Western U.S. and Alaska. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt analyzes the situation in his latest post, How Cold has this January been in the U.S.? He concludes, "this January’s average temperature nationally has probably been close to normal since the western half of the nation has been almost as much above average as the eastern half was below average. The only region that will most likely have experienced a TOP 10 coldest January will be the Upper Midwest." In the U.S., only four stations set all-time low minimum temperature records in January, compared to 34 that set all-time high maximum temperature records. I've been monitoring global temperatures this month, and it appears likely that January will rank between the 5th and 15th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880. Of particular note were the amazingly warm January temperatures in the Balkans. According to weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera, "over 90% of all stations in the Balkans from Slovenia to Croatia to Bosnia to Serbia To Montenegro to Kosovo etc., have DESTROYED their previous record of warmest January ever (many locations have 100 - 200 years of data.) In many cases the monthly temperatures were 7 - 9°C (13 - 16°F) above average, and the new records were 3 - 4°C above the previous record. This is for THOUSANDS of stations, almost all of them. In Slovenia, for example, Mount Kredarica is the only station in the whole country not to have set its warmest January on record."


Video 1. ‪If There's Global Warming ... Why Is It So Cold?‬ The latest video from climate videographer Peter Sinclair on the Yale Climate Forum website demonstrates that while it was a very cold January in the Midwest, this has been counterbalanced by record warmth over the Western U.S. and Alaska, caused by an unusually extreme kink in the jet stream.

Links
Another Unexpected Disaster That Was Well Forecast. Based in Atlanta, TWC's Bryan Norcross concludes that "WARM GROUND + VERY COLD AIR + SNOW + WORKDAY = CHAOS. If the decision-makers understood the formula above, this information should have been sufficient to trigger a proper response."

Jon Stewart Lays Into Georgia’s Snowpocalypse

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Crystallized Beauty
Crystallized Beauty
Gulf Shores, AL 1.29.14
Ice in the swamp
Ice in the swamp
An atypical day in a southern swamp.

Drought Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

nothing on hr 33 or 30 scattered areas of precip to the west and sw
Quoting 995. JNTenne:

You'd think from the relaxed attitude of these people 'fleeing' for their lives from the erupting Mt. Sinabung that it was Mt. Cinnabon!


The area was evacuated weeks ago since the volcano has been steadily erupting. I believe that the 15 who were killed were folks that had returned to check on their homes.
1003. flsky
Quoting 943. StormTrackerScott:
84.6 here in Longwood. Highs may hit 87 today.

Only 70 here in ECFL - and it's still foggy! Hate it.
1004. nymore
Quoting 999. VR46L:


Great lyrics .... I didn't imagine the song sounded the way it did . more expected it to the sound of One from Metalica rather than something sounding like Rage against the machine ... but the lyrics are very interesting !
A bit old but very true. I was going to post K's Choice, Not an addict but 10 Years seemed to fit.

18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 36



2nd feature of the week takes shape
1006. nymore
The Warden just came a gave me the LOOK so I better get ready to go to the Superbowl Party.

Have a good one all.
Quoting 1002. Astrometeor:


The area was evacuated weeks ago since the volcano has been steadily erupting. I believe that the 15 who were killed were folks that had returned to check on their homes.
not to be cold but I guess they found out it was not safe
18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 42

18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 45



precip shield expanding nicly
18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 48
18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 51


lifting up spreading out
18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 54



nice zone of 3in per hr snow fall rates in orange
18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 57


hr 57 into overdrive it goes
Quoting 997. Astrometeor:


>:(

Not cool.



LOL
something funny going on here only get one inches of new haven,conn now update to 2 to 4 inches or more what happern
18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 60

18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 63

Looks like Washington D.C. will be right on the southern edge of the snow setup (42 hour).
18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 66

18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 69



out to sea she goes

Southern New Haven






Winter Weather Advisory


Statement as of 3:01 PM EST on February 02, 2014



... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 am to 7 PM EST
Monday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect from 5 am to 7 PM
EST Monday.

* Locations... Middlesex... New London... and southern New Haven
counties in Connecticut... as well as Suffolk County Long Island.

* Hazard types... wet snow.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 2 to 5 inches... with
locally higher amounts possible.

* Winds... north 5 to 10 mph tonight... 10 to 15 mph on Monday.

* Temperatures... falling into the mid 30s by early tomorrow
morning... then to the lower 30s by mid morning.

* Visibilities... a half mile or less at times Monday morning into
the afternoon hours.

* Timing... light rain or a rain snow mix should commence early
Monday morning. As the precipitation becomes heavier Monday
morning... the precipitation will change to all snow. The snow
will taper off from west to east by late afternoon and end early
in the evening.

* Impacts... snow covered roadways... making for slippery travel.
The wet snow may add extra weight to tree branches and power
lines... potentially causing isolated power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.
A little further North
18z nam sim rad/thetae hr 72

Southern New Haven
Winter Weather Advisory


Statement as of 3:01 PM EST on February 02, 2014
... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 am to 7 PM EST
Monday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect from 5 am to 7 PM
EST Monday.

* Locations... Middlesex... New London... and southern New Haven
counties in Connecticut... as well as Suffolk County Long Island.

* Hazard types... wet snow.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 2 to 5 inches... with
locally higher amounts possible.

* Winds... north 5 to 10 mph tonight... 10 to 15 mph on Monday.

* Temperatures... falling into the mid 30s by early tomorrow
morning... then to the lower 30s by mid morning.

* Visibilities... a half mile or less at times Monday morning into
the afternoon hours.

* Timing... light rain or a rain snow mix should commence early
Monday morning. As the precipitation becomes heavier Monday
morning... the precipitation will change to all snow. The snow
will taper off from west to east by late afternoon and end early
in the evening.

* Impacts... snow covered roadways... making for slippery travel.
The wet snow may add extra weight to tree branches and power
lines... potentially causing isolated power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.
1025. VR46L
Just in case any UK Bloggers are on , might be of interest to someone looking to eventually work in Meteorology... but its voluntary ....


At this time it looks like the snow cut off will be across central Conn.
That could definately change over the next 24- 48 hours. So keep in touch with you local NWS for your region.
look out wash

Storm snow totals
Quoting 1027. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
look out wash

That would be some very heavy snow fall rates should this verify.
Quoting 1027. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
look out wash



Currently the bulk of the precipitation in Washington D.C. should be rain. Then it will change over and they could get a couple inches. Definately needs to be watched. Could get barely any snow or significantly more.
It will all depend on the path the low takes and how much cold air works into the area.

NWS forecast as of now.

Tonight Rain, mainly after 11pm. Low around 35. North wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday Rain and snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow. High near 36. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Monday Night A chance of snow before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Quoting 1027. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
look out wash

We're not getting anything here in D.C.This is not our storm.That's more for northern M.D.
So far away...

Quoting 1032. Astrometeor:
So far away...

That snow sure looks heavy, wet, and juicy. How much of it are you expecting?
The drought of no winter storm warnings being posted for 700+ days in the Nashville NWS WFO's area has been broken. But, sadly, not for me (yet).



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTRY WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

.COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET OVER NORTHWEST
SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.


TNZ005>007-022-023-030300-
/O.UPG.KOHX.WW.Y.0007.140203T0000Z-140203T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.W.0001.140203T0000Z-140203T1200Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-BENTON-HOUSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
CAMDEN...ERIN
1246 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA.

* TIMING...6 PM CST TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM CST MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...ROAD SURFACES WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND
SLIPPERY THIS EVENING. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&
Quoting 1033. Tornado6042008X:
That snow sure looks heavy, wet, and juicy. How much of it are you expecting?


Right now, less than an inch of snow and sleet for me (Nashville, TN). Paducah's forecast (for comparison) is 2-4".
Quoting 1035. Astrometeor:


Right now, less than an inch of snow and sleet for me (Nashville, TN). Paducah's forecast (for comparison) is 2-4".
Meanwhile where I am at( Herndon,VA) I could get anywhere from a coating to 6 inches of wet snow. I could be right under the rain/snow line.
Quoting 1030. Sfloridacat5:


Currently the bulk of the precipitation in Washington D.C. should be rain. Then it will change over and they could get a couple inches. Definately needs to be watched. Could get barely any snow or significantly more.
It will all depend on the path the low takes and how much cold air works into the area.

NWS forecast as of now.

Tonight Rain, mainly after 11pm. Low around 35. North wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday Rain and snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow. High near 36. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Monday Night A chance of snow before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


Kids want another delayed opening.

Not gonna happen.

Quoting 813. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're definitely the minority. :)


Quoting 816. Jedkins01:



What's wrong with OU?


I go to The University of Texas. Oklahoma is our main rival. It's nothing personal. haha
1039. VR46L
1040. txjac
What time does the big game start?

It's currently 41F, drizzling and overcast with 10mph winds

And their are more people out, with umbrellas, grilling food outside! You guys are crazy

Edit ...did I miss the puppy bowl already?
Quoting 1026. Sfloridacat5:
At this time it looks like the snow cut off will be across central Conn.
That could definately change over the next 24- 48 hours. So keep in touch with you local NWS for your region.

Actually, that's highlighting the boundaries between different NWS Weather Forecast Offices. They apparently are disagreeing on snow amounts on the edges of their areas of responsibility, and that is creating a discontinuity on the map.
Quoting 1031. washingtonian115:
We're not getting anything here in D.C.This is not our storm.That's more for northern M.D.
Ya i expect us to just have a plain old heavy rainstorm, rain should start late tonight around 8 or 9 maybe.
Quoting 1040. txjac:
What time does the big game start?

It's currently 41F, drizzling and overcast with 10mph winds

And their are more people out, with umbrellas, grilling food outside! You guys are crazy

Edit ...did I miss the puppy bowl already?


Super Bowl starts at 5:25 pm CST.
Link LOOKS INTERESTING LATE THIS WEEK FOR EAST U.S,
t LOOKS INTERESTING LATE WEEK FOR EAST U.S.
Quoting 1026. Sfloridacat5:
At this time it looks like the snow cut off will be across central Conn.
That could definately change over the next 24- 48 hours. So keep in touch with you local NWS for your region.


Actually, i THINK that the cut off that is snown in that graphic is due more to local NWS office disagreements. Here in Ulster County NY, the Albany office has less than half an inch at their southern border, while the New York office has up to two inches just five miles further south in their northern areas.
healing thoughts for presslord
If Climate175 is here than wanna talk about the tropics now???
Quoting 1045. StormGuyNFL:
t LOOKS INTERESTING LATE WEEK FOR EAST U.S.
Rain Storm...
Quoting 1048. Haiyan2013:
If Climate175 is here than wanna talk about the tropics now???
I am here but now i am focused on the impending storm.
Statement as of 3:26 PM CST on February 02, 2014



... Winter storm may bring heavy snow and ice to parts of
central... east central and southeast Illinois later Tuesday into
early Wednesday morning...

Another winter storm will settle into the Southern Plains late
Monday and take aim on central Illinois Tuesday into early
Wednesday threatening to bring another round of heavy snow and
icing to central through southeast Illinois.

Over the past week... forecast data has been indicating a storm
system would be be pushing into the lower Ohio Valley early this
week. This morning's data indicates that snow will overspread the
area from southwest to northeast later Tuesday morning and encompass
most of the area by late afternoon. There will be a wintry mix of
snow... sleet and freezing rain possible mainly south of Interstate
72 with some light accumulation of ice possible... especially near
the Interstate 70 corridor during the afternoon hours.

In areas north of Interstate 72... snow will be the primary
precipitation type... with some of it possibly becoming heavy late
in the afternoon and during the evening hours. Current indications
suggest the heaviest snow band... 5 to 7 inches... will be in this
area with snowfall amounts dropping off significantly south of
Interstate 72 where the wintry mix is expected until the precipitation
changes over to all snow Tuesday evening. In southeast Illinois... it
appears there is the potential for up to a tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation before the precipitation changes to snow.

As the storm starts to move away from the area later Tuesday
evening... north to northwest winds will be increasing to between
15 and 25 mph... with gusts up to around 30 mph at times... which
will cause blowing and drifting problems over the north where the
heavier snowfall will be. This is a very preliminary forecast as
the storm center that will be affecting our area is still off the
California coast early this afternoon. These numbers will likely change
as the storm track is adjusted with future model runs.

If you have travel plans anywhere across the Midwest Tuesday and
Wednesday... stay tuned to the latest forecasts. Travel will be impacted
by this winter storm Tuesday and Wednesday. If you have to drive... now
is the time to ensure your vehicle has a winter safety kit.


Smith
San Francisco:
Conditions
Pressure
29.85 in
Visibility
4.0 miles
Clouds
Few 900 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3400 ft
Overcast 4600 ft
Humidity
89%
Rainfall
0.29 in yay
Quoting 1046. HurrikanEB:


Actually, i THINK that the cut off that is snown in that graphic is due more to local NWS office disagreements. Here in Ulster County NY, the Albany office has less than half an inch at their southern border, while the New York office has up to two inches just five miles further south in their northern areas.


Just forecast maps - these are NAM produced. Snowfall totals can be hard to forecast.
I lived in the Washington D.C. area for 16 years and the local forecasters rarely got the forecasts right.

We had 100% chance of snow (Winter Storm Warnings) and I never saw one snow flake.

Then another day we had 30% chance of snow flurries (no accumulation expected) and we got about 8" of snow and the schools had to hurry to get the students home around 10:00 am in the morning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY...

CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075- 078-176>179-
030415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT AND LOWER 30S
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD COMMENCE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND END BY EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
THE WET SNOW MAY ADD EXTRA WEIGHT TO TREE BRANCHES AND POWER
LINES...POTENTIALLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Quoting 1050. Climate175:
I am here but now i am focused on the impending storm.
OK,my area will get hit by Nika and I'm wondering how much we'll get on top of the 4-5"of snow.I hope maybe 1' or more. :-)
Quoting 1053. Sfloridacat5:


Just forecast maps - these are NAM produced. Snowfall totals can be hard to forecast.
I lived in Washington D.C. area for 16 years and the local forecasters rarely got the forecasts right.

We had 100% chance of snow (Winter Storm Warnings) and I never saw one snow flake.

Then another day we had 30% chance of snow flurries (no accumulation expected) and we got about 8" of snow and the schools had to hurry to get the students home around 10:00 am in the morning.



Oh, ok. I've been misinterpreting how those maps are generated. Thanks.
The good thing about this rainstorm is that it will wash away the salt and dirty snow still on the ground.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL LOW 08U
7:42 AM EST February 3 2014
============================================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 17.4S 139.7E or 100 km southeast of Mornington Is and 40 km north northeast of Burketown has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

The tropical low situated between Mornington Island and Burketown is expected to continue moving eastwards during Monday, while developing. The system may form into a tropical cyclone in the southeastern Gulf either late on Monday or early on Tuesday.

GALES are expected to extend around 100 kilometers out from the center and may develop about coastal and island communities between the Northern Territory border and Kowanyama either late on Monday or early on Tuesday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is possible about the Gulf Country district over the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from the Northern Territory/Queensland border to Kowanyama.

The Cyclone WATCH between Port McArthur and the Northern Territory/Queensland border has been CANCELLED.
Quoting 1048. Haiyan2013:
If Climate175 is here than wanna talk about the tropics now???



There nothing Two report in the tropices
here we go!!
Quoting 1054. interstatelover7166:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY...

CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067&g t;075- 078-176>179-
030415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT AND LOWER 30S
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD COMMENCE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND END BY EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
THE WET SNOW MAY ADD EXTRA WEIGHT TO TREE BRANCHES AND POWER
LINES...POTENTIALLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$





Quoting 1059. Tazmanian:



There nothing Two report in the tropices
There is several lows that might!!!
1063. JNTenne
Quoting 1035. Astrometeor:


Right now, less than an inch of snow and sleet for me (Nashville, TN). Paducah's forecast (for comparison) is 2-4".
It's down to 33 here.. consistent precip so when it does get to the forecast 29 its going to be nice and slickery! Hopefully it won't get bad until after the game.. That could make for some bad travel for folks going to friend's for a party..
Superbowl was 1 day too early.
Tomorrow would have made for a really interesting game with 3-5" forecast for the area.
Happy Groundhogs Day Everyone!


Mayor Bill has doomed us all to another four years of Soviet winter with his mishandling of Staten Island Chuck, and Phil, the Punxsatawney stalwart, confirms winter will continue for at least another six weeks.

The Staten Island Advance reports that Chuck—full name Charles G. Hogg—appears unharmed.

"The groundhog has shown no talent for predicting the arrival of spring, especially in recent years," Asheville, NC's National Climatic Data Center told USA Today. "Phil's competitor groundhogs across the nation fared no better."

1066. JNTenne
Quoting 1065. Skyepony:
Happy Groundhogs Day Everyone!


Mayor Bill has doomed us all to another four years of Soviet winter with his mishandling of Staten Island Chuck, and Phil, the Punxsatawney stalwart, confirms winter will continue for at least another six weeks.

The Staten Island Advance reports that Chuck—full name Charles G. Hogg—appears unharmed.

"The groundhog has shown no talent for predicting the arrival of spring, especially in recent years," Asheville, NC's National Climatic Data Center told USA Today. "Phil's competitor groundhogs across the nation fared no better."

I heard that a new groundhog winter forecasting technique was suggested by someone... instead of the whole shadow thing.. you just measure the bounce.. the more body fat,due to greater anticipated cold, will increase shock absorption and thus minimize bounce height.. ;)
Quoting 1065. Skyepony:
Happy Groundhogs Day Everyone!


Mayor Bill has doomed us all to another four years of Soviet winter with his mishandling of Staten Island Chuck, and Phil, the Punxsatawney stalwart, confirms winter will continue for at least another six weeks.

The Staten Island Advance reports that Chuck—full name Charles G. Hogg—appears unharmed.

"The groundhog has shown no talent for predicting the arrival of spring, especially in recent years," Asheville, NC's National Climatic Data Center told USA Today. "Phil's competitor groundhogs across the nation fared no better."



I always thought it had to do with Phil seeing his shadow.
But this morning it was very cloudy, thick fog, and light rain, but phil supposedly saw his shadow.

Then I find out the speech is made up a head of time and has nothing to do with Phil seeing his shadow.
Quoting 1063. JNTenne:
It's down to 33 here.. consistent precip so when it does get to the forecast 29 its going to be nice and slickery! Hopefully it won't get bad until after the game.. That could make for some bad travel for folks going to friend's for a party..
img style="max-width: 501px;" src="http://www.bartcop.com/cheech-
superbowl_n.jpg">


Florida will be voting on the issue sometime soon (medical use only).
It's only a matter of time.
This is looking more and more like a rainstorm.
Quoting 1069. Climate175:
This is looking more and more like a rainstorm.
its going to be what ever it wants storm
Quoting 1066. JNTenne:
I heard that a new groundhog winter forecasting technique was suggested by someone... instead of the whole shadow thing.. you just measure the bounce.. the more body fat,due to greater anticipated cold, will increase shock absorption and thus minimize bounce height.. ;)

Four years for mishandling includes extended winters due to significant volcanoes... Wunder what became of Chuck biting the Mayor in 2009?


Quoting 1067. Sfloridacat5:


I always thought it had to do with Phil seeing his shadow.
But this morning it was very cloudy, thick fog, and light rain, but phil supposedly saw his shadow.

Then I find out the speech is made up a head of time and has nothing to do with Phil seeing his shadow.

That was way too obvious with the thick fog this morning..
Quoting 1070. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its going to be what ever it wants storm
For areas north snow (as usual) and south rain.
Volcano Eruption in Ecuador on Thursday, 30 January, 2014 at 23:14 (11:14 PM) UTC.

Back
Updated: Sunday, 02 February, 2014 at 09:34 UTC
Description
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute is reporting that the Tungurahua volcano has erupted three times, spewing ash and lava in what it called an important increase in activity. The institute said that two moderate explosions on Saturday were followed by a third of greater size, and pyroclastic flow stretched 500 meters down its flank. The blasts created a 5-mile (8-kilometer) column of ash above the volcano, which is located 84 miles (135 kilometers) southeast of the capital, Quito. Authorities said the lava reached the lower part of a ravine called Achupashal, blocking a route to a tourist site called Banos. Tungurahua is 16,480 feet (5,023 meters) high and has been active since 1999. An outburst in 2006 left four dead and two missing.
Quoting 1069. Climate175:
This is looking more and more like a rainstorm.


D.C. should be right on the snow/rain line (which is very common with this setup). Just Northwest of the city should see some snow. Downtown will see some snow towards the end of the precipitation and could pick up a couple inches of wet snow (most likely not sticking to the road).

South of D.C. will see almost all rain.Just a little down river to the South at Mount Vernon forecast calls for about 1/2" of snow. I'm not sure if they will even see that.
Well, I just got back to Asheville from Atlanta. I got to say I will never forget what had happened in the last 36 hours since I left here 5 am in the morning. Sadly I didn't get to meet up with WU folks and my tour of Weather Channel got delayed to later this semester, but I did have a helluva of time! I got to listen to many great speakers, received many advice, and had conversations with few professionals including meteorologist-in-charge at NWS Peachtree City and NHC forecaster Dr. Avila. One advice that I received from Dr. Avila is that if I really love meteorology, I will have a bright career. I'm very thankful I got to go to AMS student conference as a freshman when many other meteorology students didn't have a chance to do so. Going as a freshman will give me significant advantage as I will know what to expect for the next AMS student conference and actually take advantage of it instead of being shocked and shy the whole time like me and many other first timers (mostly juniors) were. The last thing I want to say is Atlanta is an absolutely amazing host city for this conference. I've never been to Atlanta until yesterday and the city was absolutely widespread and massive. I can see Atlanta becoming much larger than it is today few decades from now.
Poor man's Barometer.

No actually its for my science class. The kids are going to make their own barometer and keep a journal of whether the pressure is rising or falling.

I marked the pressue line on mine this morning. It dropped during the day and now its started a slow rise. Pretty cool.
I have a Davis Vantage Vue weather station and the pressure fall and rise on my home made barometer matched the Vantage Vue's pressure change.

Keeping in mind that the Farmers Almanac should not be taken seriously, it's pretty ironic that the Northeast will be getting a snowstorm the day after the Superbowl. Missing but a day in a forecast made 180 days previous is pretty darn good.
Quoting 1077. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Keeping in mind that the Farmers Almanac should not be taken seriously, it's pretty ironic that the Northeast will be getting a snowstorm the day after the Superbowl. Missing but a day in a forecast made 180 days previous is pretty darn good.
They did say they might be off a day or so.
The Farmers’ Almanac does admit that their predictions are off sometimes by a day or two, so there is a possibility that the intense winter storm predicted for SuperBowl Sunday could come Monday or exit in time for the big game. But in the mean time, if you plan on going, you may want to pack your boots, gloves, and umbrella.
Quoting 1077. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Keeping in mind that the Farmers Almanac should not be taken seriously, it's pretty ironic that the Northeast will be getting a snowstorm the day after the Superbowl. Missing but a day in a forecast made 180 days previous is pretty darn good.


I remember as a kid reading the Farmers Almanac as if was to be taken seriously, and back then it was made up way in advance.
I was a serious weather geek starting at a very early age.
If there was a winter storm, heavy rain/flooding, etc I would stay up all night and watch the weather.

The only weather updates I could get back then were by calling the NWS forecast on the phone. I would call every hour to see if they had updated the forecast during stormy weather.
Here's the storm we are watching that should be in the SE 2-3 days from now. It is bringing little relief to CA.

Clouds are yellow, snow is white. Storm for tomorrow is starting to pull together in the middle..

Quoting 1082. Skyepony:
Clouds are yellow, snow is white. Storm for tomorrow is starting to pull together in the middle..



that should get my area Tuesday afternoon .. the system off the coast is expected next Friday ..
The Greyhounds predict a Seahawks Super Bowl victory!

So today was fun.

I still didn't see Bluestorm five or anyone from Wu, but I did chat with Louis Uccellini (NWS Director), my local NWS offices (with whome I got internship opportunities), all my local tv meteorologists, people from the CPC, and I chatted for a while with Christopher Landsea from the NHC.
here comes the little dive bomber now

Geoffrey~ Thanks for the superbowl race!

1088. barbamz

Gorgeous pic (dpa) of high waves hitting Santander in Spain today. Source is a photo gallery on German Spiegel. Click to see the pic in full size!

Outlooks for the British Isles and Italy (and adjacent countries) for the next week? Well they could recycle some of the old ones from earlier this year (or the end of the last one). Wet and stormy!


Weather for the week ahead

BBC weather video, 2 February 2014 Last updated at 13:39
Is there any end in sight to the wet and windy weather? Tomasz Schafernaker takes a look.

Heavy rain for Italy
Stav Danaos has more on the severe weather affecting parts of Europe.

---------------------


Current water vapor Europe (saved image).
Quoting 1086. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here comes the little dive bomber now

Miley sure looks nice.
And after the 2F at my house on wednesday night/ thursday morning it was 72F today.
NWS Atlanta ‏@NWSAtlanta 1m
Record high of 74 degrees set at #ATL today (breaks 73 in 1986 & 1974)... can u believe just few days ago had low of 13
I love how the NWS says 2-5" for us in the advisory range, and in the warning range to our north, it's 3-6". It's just one more inch of snow....

Plus, NWS State College says 6-8" for lower tier counties of PA.

This is really confusing...
Anyone else as drunk as the JCPenny social media person?

@jcpenney 7m
Toughdown Seadawks!! Is sSeattle going toa runaway wit h this???

@jcpenney 42m
Who kkmew theis was ghiong tob e a baweball ghamle. #lowsscorinh 5_0
1094. barbamz

Hmm, 50% for huuugh sunspot 1967 to produce an X-flare (strong eruption which should be earth directed right now). That's quite significant. More on spaceweather.com.

Good night from Germany. Hope you have fun with this super bowl in the US today and your favourite team wins, lol.
Quoting 1093. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone else as drunk as the JCPenny social media person?

@jcpenney 7m
Toughdown Seadawks!! Is sSeattle going toa runaway wit h this???

@jcpenney 42m
Who kkmew theis was ghiong tob e a baweball ghamle. #lowsscorinh 5_0


Either they're crying because of the Broncos losing, or they're just drunk. Either way, someone isn't gonna have twitter rights come tomorrow...
Quoting 1086. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here comes the little dive bomber now

So there is Nika.
22-0 So Sad .... NOT.... Go Seahawks
Quoting 1097. Tropicsweatherpr:
The team that is going to win is the team that barely experiences snow, just rain..
1100. Grothar


It's really a sad commentary when the light show is better than the performers.
bruno mars = teenie boppin james brown
jeezs not even a guitar solo
Warmer at the game than at either home field. Temp is 43F....
TOUCHDOWN!!!!
Quoting 1100. Grothar:


It's really a sad commentary when the light show is better than the performers.


Quoting 1104. Climate175:
TOUCHDOWN!!!!
Lightning fast!
This is just SAD
Quoting 1104. Climate175:
TOUCHDOWN!!!!
What is your temp now ?
Quoting 1108. Climate175:
What is your temp now ?
50F
Quoting 1093. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone else as drunk as the JCPenny social media person?

@jcpenney 7m
Toughdown Seadawks!! Is sSeattle going toa runaway wit h this???

@jcpenney 42m
Who kkmew theis was ghiong tob e a baweball ghamle. #lowsscorinh 5_0

apparently they were
#TWEETINGWITHMITTENS
Quoting 1107. Articuno:
This is just SAD
29-0
Denver fans right now:
Quoting 1109. Tornado6042008X:
50F
Mine is 49, i expect the precip to arrive soon.
Quoting 1107. Articuno:
This is just SAD


broncos fan or just for today?
Quoting 1093. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone else as drunk as the JCPenny social media person?

@jcpenney 7m
Toughdown Seadawks!! Is sSeattle going toa runaway wit h this???

@jcpenney 42m
Who kkmew theis was ghiong tob e a baweball ghamle. #lowsscorinh 5_0


They were tweeting with mittens

Good Morning America ‏@GMA 27m
THATIS IT From now on were ll tweetning with mtitens #tweetingwithmittens pic.twitter.com/XKJ3GMrsZn
Retweeted by JCPenney
Wow...lol Broncos cant do anything
Switching to the #ZombieBowl. The Walking Dead is much more interesting than watching the Seahawks wipe the floor with the Broncos. Even the commercials suck.
Quoting 1114. GeorgiaStormz:


broncos fan or just for today?

no.
I wanted the Seahawks the win in a CLOSE game.
Quoting 1101. islander101010:
bruno mars = teenie boppin james brown



Bruno Mars isn't my style, but still better than the half time show of the last few Superbowls.
Quoting 1118. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Switching to the #ZombieBowl. The Walking Dead is much more interesting than watching the Seahawks wipe the floor with the Broncos.


Hey at least you watched sports for once.

L.O.B.
This is probably one of the most pathetic Superbowl's that I have ever seen.Denver is just getting smashed right not with out even trying.
Quoting 1122. washingtonian115:
This is probably one of the most pathetic Superbowl's that I have ever seen.Denver is just getting smashed right not with out even trying.

I agree. Even though I am rooting for Seattle, I'm honestly not finding this game entertaining whatsoever. Even the commercials are sucking!

And as I type this, Seattle effortlessly gets another touchdown.
McKenzie enjoying the game...

1125. etxwx
Quoting 1124. GeoffreyWPB:
McKenzie enjoying the game...



that's 'cuz it's gone to the dogs....
:)
Another touchdown! Another touchdown? What the he**? Oh wait. It's Seattle. Now I'm absolutely not surprised.
Quoting 1124. GeoffreyWPB:
McKenzie enjoying the game...


this is a game?
Big Mess on it's way tonight.
Quoting 1127. Articuno:

this is a game?


That is why the yawn!
Denver finally got a touchdown.
Quoting 1128. Climate175:
Big Mess on it's way tonight.
Gonna get very muddy around here.I hate cold rain.
Quoting 1131. washingtonian115:
Gonna get very muddy around here.I hate cold rain.
Yes and i can also see possibly sleet with that cold rain. Yuck.
Quoting 1130. Climate175:
Denver finally got a touchdown.
Could be too late for them by now. But we'll see.
1134. ncstorm
Quoting 1118. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Switching to the #ZombieBowl. The Walking Dead is much more interesting than watching the Seahawks wipe the floor with the Broncos. Even the commercials suck.


Love the walking dead...can't wait till next sunday..I fear this will be Ric's last season..the promos don't look promising for him..
1135. Dakster
I hate blow out football games -- even if there is a comeback in the 11th hour as the fat lady is warming up to sing.
The rain/snow line is gonna be awfully close.
Quoting 1136. Climate175:
The rain/snow line is gonna be awfully close.
Yeap. 12z gfs gave me 0.1" of snow. The 18z gfs gave me 5"!
1138. Grothar
The largest point spread in a Super Bowl was 18 points. I think this may be a record.
Quoting 1133. Tornado6042008X:
Could be too late for them by now. But we'll see.
I'm sorry to anyone still watching, but who the f-word still cares? We know the Seahawks are going to win, as sad as I'm about that, I'm admitting it.
Quoting 1139. interstatelover7166:
I'm sorry to anyone still watching, but who the f*** still cares? We know Seahawks are going to win, as sad as I'm about that, I'm admitting it.
LOL
Cool...Our local TV station WPTV put McKenzie's pic on their website!

Link
1143. Dakster
Quoting 1139. interstatelover7166:
I'm sorry to anyone still watching, but who the f-word still cares? We know the Seahawks are going to win, as sad as I'm about that, I'm admitting it.


Sour grapes? I guess easy for me to say since I really don't care who wins as none of the teams I usually root for are in the game this year. However, I like to see a good and close game, which this is obviously not close.
Washi, JB predicts 2-5 inches for us.

Quoting 1139. interstatelover7166:
I'm sorry to anyone still watching, but who the f-word still cares? We know the Seahawks are going to win, as sad as I'm about that, I'm admitting it.
True statement.
Quoting 1144. Climate175:
Washi, JB predicts 2-5 inches for us.
We'll have to see about that.Temps are still holding firm here in the city but falling off near the coast.
Futurecast shows the rain getting here at 12am and the rain chaning to snow around 5-6 am.
1148. Dakster
Quoting 1144. Climate175:
Washi, JB predicts 2-5 inches for us.


She is only happy if she can get 6"-8". We established that earlier this season.
The Budweiser commercial is the best part of this game. :)
Two minutes left! Go Broncos! I believe in you!











Yeah they're dead.
Quoting 1148. Dakster:


She is only happy if she can get 6"-8". We established that earlier this season.
I have been spoiled by the last few snow events for sure.
Link This is what you might be hearing overnight outside the window.
Rest in Peace Broncos.
Quoting 1154. Tornado6042008X:
Rest in Peace Broncos.
Such a humiliating defeat.
This is what happens when the #1 Offense and the #1 Defense play each other.
1157. Patrap
Gosh, darn


Quoting 961. TylerStanfield:

Yep. Eventually, something has to give. The key is when one of them gives out to the other. But right now, it's a full out war between the atmosphere, and the ENSO.


You guys are depressing.

Seriously, I've already warned the household (and a few friends) to expect one more dry winter. Friend with a geologist friend who studies the west coast global weather cycles as a hobby asserted much the same.

I don't WANT another dry winter. But what will be, will be.
1159. hydrus
Quoting 1138. Grothar:
The largest point spread in a Super Bowl was 18 points. I think this may be a record.


In 1990, the San Francisco 49ers had an 11-point spread over the Denver Broncos, the most lopsided score in Super Bowl history, 49ers winning 55 to 10.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 6:53 PM PST on February 02, 2014
Overcast
55 F/12.77 C
Overcast
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 34 F/1.11 C
Wind: 4 mph Variable
Pressure: 29.98 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 7.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Overcast 11000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

currently 58.3F/14.61C, high was 63.5F/17.5C


1161. Dakster
Hey Pedley, we are back to our hot mid 80s days here with lows in the 70s at night.


Oh, No, not the fifties, highs only in the fifties. NOOOOOOOOOOOO.
1163. Dakster
Quoting 1157. Patrap:
Gosh, darn




Better put the Broncos on a suicide watch.
Quoting 1161. Dakster:
Hey Pedley, we are back to our hot mid 80s days here with lows in the 70s at night.


Look at the Crap I got to put up with. I said Winter was here finally.
Quoting 1163. Dakster:


Better put the Broncos on a suicide watch.


My daughter lives in Arvada, Colo. She won't like this outcome.
1166. Dakster
Quoting 1164. PedleyCA:


Look at the Crap I got to put up with. I said Winter was here finally.


I did not think that the banana belt got that cold.
Quoting 1166. Dakster:


I did not think that the banana belt got that cold.


It was between 70 and 80 for so long. Oh, well, ran out of high pressure....
Quoting 1131. washingtonian115:
Gonna get very muddy around here.I hate cold rain.


Mud on top of frozen ground is something we haven't seen for awhile in DC. It's VERY slippery underfoot. I have 1cm of mud on top of the frozen layer in my yard.


Might be getting wet here. This wasn't supposed to be way back in here. I thought this was a coast only storm.
Quoting 1122. washingtonian115:
This is probably one of the most pathetic Superbowl's that I have ever seen.Denver is just getting smashed right not with out even trying.


I have to agree on this point. Blowouts are dull.
Quoting 1093. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone else as drunk as the JCPenny social media person?

@jcpenney 7m
Toughdown Seadawks!! Is sSeattle going toa runaway wit h this???

@jcpenney 42m
Who kkmew theis was ghiong tob e a baweball ghamle. #lowsscorinh 5_0


I have only ever drunk-texted once. I misspelled "drunk." I'm much more careful these days.


Ruh-Roh, this is headed right for me.
Schools will have an iffy decision to make. Washi DC Public schools said that they are watching the weather closely. Some schools in PA have closed, not a lot in MD yet.
1174. ncstorm
Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl XLVIII

Malcolm Smith wins Super Bowl MVP honors after helping the Seahawks to a 43-8 victory over the Denver Broncos
1176. Patrap
Quoting 1169. PedleyCA:


Might be getting wet here. This wasn't supposed to be way back in here. I thought this was a coast only storm.


That's what we call "Lagniappe".
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 9:53 PM CST on February 02, 2014
Clear
-10 °F/-23.33C
Windchill: -22 °F/-30C
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: -14 °F/-25.55C

Wind: 5 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 30.27 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: .10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1624 ft

Yikes, it is cold at my Sisters place
1178. Dakster
Quoting 1167. PedleyCA:


It was between 70 and 80 for so long. Oh, well, ran out of high pressure....


I'll give you some of my high blood pressure, if it would help?

BTW, Wisconsin is supposed to get that cold... And colder.
This is a little late but the report for Tropical Storm Melissa is out on the nhc site
1180. JRRP

SOI still positive
1181. RTLSNK
Quoting 1178. Dakster:


I'll give you some of my high blood pressure, if it would help?

BTW, Wisconsin is supposed to get that cold... And colder.


Another place I wouldn't want to live in the Winter.
You know how some fanbases are so obnoxiously ridiculous and annoying that they effectively repel you from ever trying the particular thing that's being exalted?

That's how I feel about football. Plus I don't understand it, so that's also probably a factor. :P
Quoting 1177. PedleyCA:
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 9:53 PM CST on February 02, 2014
Clear
-10 °F/-23.33C
Windchill: -22 °F/-30C
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: -14 °F/-25.55C

Wind: 5 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 30.27 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: .10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1624 ft

Yikes, it is cold at my Sisters place


Ah, I've always wondered why you pick the Rhinelander station in particular. A good friend of mine's dad lives there. Tells me the winter horror stories all the time.

Quoting 1179. Tazmanian:
This is a little late but the report for Tropical Storm Melissa is out on the nhc site
Only one left is Ingrid.
1186. Dakster
Quoting 1183. KoritheMan:
You know how some fanbases are so obnoxiously ridiculous and annoying that they effectively repel you from ever trying the particular thing that's being exalted?

That's how I feel about football. Plus I don't understand it, so that's also probably a factor. :P


To me it is more the commercialism of the sport. It really isn't the purity of the sport more than how much $$ can we make playing it.

A group of friends used to have season tickets - until it got to the point that they were paying $400/ea+ to go to the game and they had "cheap tickets" too. They realized that they can get a nice home theater system and watch it at home for a whole lot less. (Less money, less aggravation, less annoying fans, less danger - as one of them got killed by getting hit by a car in the parking lot.)

And the amount of food and booze (if you drink, I don't) that you can get for far less per person is just so much better.

And you don't have to worry about the weather. Since this is a weather blog, you will at least realize that importance.
Quoting 1166. Dakster:


I did not think that the banana belt got that cold.



Banana Belt? California is no banana climate, bananas do best in jungle environment.
Quoting 1185. KoritheMan:

Only one left is Ingrid.

And Gil and Priscilla in the East Pacific.

Quoting 1188. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And Gil and Priscilla in the East Pacific.
Context was for the Atlantic herp derp :p
Time to Bail - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Don't play with the ICE
1191. Dakster
Quoting 1187. Jedkins01:



Banana Belt? California is no banana climate, bananas do best in jungle environment.


I didn't name it.

There is an area in California called the Banana Belt. Pedley lives in that area.

Here is one resource: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_belt Link
1192. Dakster
Quoting 1190. PedleyCA:
Time to Bail - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Don't play with the ICE


I try not to play with ICE, their guns are bigger than mine.

Have a good one, Ped.
Whatever you do, don't look at the 0z GFS.

Quoting 1189. KoritheMan:

Context was for the Atlantic herp derp :p

I know, I was just pointing out something.
Well, the one good thing that happened today was apparently Atlanta spooked Nashville into closing the schools. I've never seen MNPS close this early when it looks like we won't even get any snow...

Snow Closings Map

Everything else about today was horrible.

Quoting 1193. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whatever you do, don't look at the 0z GFS.


I know, I was just pointing out something.
I know, and I was just pointing out the fallacy of what you were pointing out. :P
Quoting 1183. KoritheMan:
You know how some fanbases are so obnoxiously ridiculous and annoying that they effectively repel you from ever trying the particular thing that's being exalted?

That's how I feel about football. Plus I don't understand it, so that's also probably a factor. :P


ah, so you have seen my Facebook posts. :P Oh well at least I have no reason to post any in the post season. lol
Quoting 1195. KoritheMan:

I know, and I was just pointing out the fallacy of what you were pointing out. :P

I didn't make a statement or argument, I posted a fact. Therefore it wasn't a fallacy.

I will argue over fallacy like everyone argued about lie yesterday.

Quoting 1196. AtHomeInTX:


ah, so you have seen my Facebook posts. :P Oh well at least I have no reason to post any in the post season. lol
I actually didn't because I have a myriad of people under "Close Friends" so that I get notifications; this frequently leads me to having up to 60+ notifications at any given time, so it's easy to gloss over posts sometimes. :P

But hey, post what you want. Hell if I'm gonna complain. I still love you regardless. :D
My forecast for this hurricane season is 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Quoting 1198. KoritheMan:

I actually didn't because I have a myriad of people under "Close Friends" so that I get notifications; this frequently leads me to having up to 60+ notifications at any given time, so it's easy to gloss over posts sometimes. :P

But hey, post what you want. Hell if I'm gonna complain. I still love you regardless. :D


lol. ok. love you too. glad I didn't annoy you. :)

Quoting 1197. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't make a statement or argument, I posted a fact. Therefore it wasn't a fallacy.

I will argue over fallacy like everyone argued about lie yesterday.
A fact that was irrelevant to the facts being discussed [Atlantic TCRs].

Kori: 1
Cody: 0

Don't get massacred worse than the Broncos did. Okay? ;)
Quoting 1201. KoritheMan:

A fact that was irrelevant to the facts being discussed [Atlantic TCRs].

Kori: 1
Cody: 0

Don't get massacred worse than the Broncos did. Okay? ;)

You can get a point when you decide to be accurate.

A fact that was irrelevant to the facts being discussed =/= fallacy.

The end. :)
three new local super bowl champs. Nice job guys. It's cold back home again. lol. shameless weather tie in.


Congratulations to Orange native Earl Thomas, Jasper native Red Bryant and Beaumont native Christine Michael, all of which are players on Seattle!!!
What the heck...
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC EDNA (10U)
2:02 PM EST February 3 2014
============================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Edna (997 hPa) located at 13.8S 154.2E or 140 km east northeast of Burketown and 970 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 22 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 13.0S 156.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.0S 159.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 19.2S 161.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 22.0S 161.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
========================
A relatively small sized system and embedded in the monsoon trough, Ex-TC Edna continued to maintain deep convection near its centre in the last 12 hours. The system has been moving northeastwards but is expected to take a more easterly track in the next 12 to 24 hours and then curve towards the south due to an upper trough to its south.

Outflow remains very good in the northern and eastern quandrants. The system is currently in a moderate shear zone however movement over the next 24 hours will see the system in a reduced shear environement. This may enable the cloud structures to improve with gales wrapping around further than just the northeast quadrant.

Teh current intensity is based on Dvorak analysis of a curved band wrapping 0.35 degrees, yielding a T=2.0.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE FLETCHER, CATEGORY ONE (08U)
2:06 PM EST February 3 2014
============================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Fletcher, Category One (992 hPa) located at 17.1S 140.7E or 140 km east northeast of Burketown and 165 km east southeast of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 10 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Fletcher is expected to cross the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast north of Karumba this afternoon.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h are expected this afternoon and tonight between Burketown and Kowanyamah.

The cyclone may weaken overland overnight, but is forecast to recurve towards to the west during Tuesday in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and redevelop. As a result GALES would again be possible between Kowanyamah and Burketown extending to coastal and island communities between the Northern Territory border and Burketown later Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from the Burketown to Kowanyama.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Burketown to Northern Territory/Queensland
Quoting 1202. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can get a point when you decide to be accurate.

A fact that was irrelevant to the facts being discussed =/= fallacy.

The end. :)



Link

There's wiggle room. We have these beautiful things called "synonyms" in the English language, as well as flexible definitions of the actual words themselves.

Kori: 2
Cody: 0
Here comes the big, dry hole that I was worried about this morning. No snow for me, and a waste of a snow day.



*crying*
Quoting 1207. KoritheMan:



Link

There's wiggle room. We have these beautiful things called "synonyms" in the English language, as well as flexible definitions of the actual words themselves.

Kori: 2
Cody: 0

There's wiggle room, but not to the extent of changing the entire meaning of a word. My previous comment remains.

Go to bed. :)
and the gfs has went nuts for next weekends storm...lol...flippity floppity...lol



Quoting 1209. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's wiggle room, but not to the extent of changing the entire meaning of a word. My previous comment remains.

Go to bed. :)


Well. If you're going to argue about simple semantics you did describe the Farmer's Almanac prediction as ironic earlier, where it would be more appropriate to say that it was coincidental. Irony requires a contradiction of some sort, whereas what you were describing was just a funny occurrence. This is a common mistake though. :)
Quoting 1211. wxgeek723:


Well. If you're going to argue about simple semantics you did describe the Farmer's Almanac prediction as ironic earlier, where it would be more appropriate to say that it was coincidental. Irony requires a contradiction of some sort, whereas what you were describing was just a funny occurrence. This is a common mistake though. :)


Ouch.

Kori 2
Trent 1
Cody 0

Keeping score.

Don't worry Cody, you're still doing better than the Broncos. Need a commercial break?
Quoting 1191. Dakster:


I didn't name it.

There is an area in California called the Banana Belt. Pedley lives in that area.

Here is one resource: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_belt Link



You are indeed excused, I didn't know a banana belt was an actual term not necessarily related to banana growth or tropical weather, rather just a region warmer than the surrounding areas.

I stand corrected :)
Quoting 1209. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's wiggle room, but not to the extent of changing the entire meaning of a word. My previous comment remains.

Go to bed. :)


Definition three.

You. Lose.
Quoting 1204. Climate175:
What the heck...


yea...lol.

Quoting 1215. watchingnva:


yea...lol.



Despite the ludicrous nature in that forecast, I want to know how the GFS puts a dry hole in the snowfall right on top of Nashville, TN.

C'mon Man!

Just because we're known for tornadoes skipping over us and just about every other awesome weather pattern, doesn't mean you have to rub it in.
Quoting 1214. KoritheMan:


Definition three.

You. Lose.

Apparently you have trouble comprehending several words. :\

Irrelevant =/= deceptive, misleading, or false in nature.

FYI...

rrelevant
i%u02C8rel%u0259v%u0259nt/Submit
adjective
1.
not connected with or relevant to something.

deceptive
di%u02C8septiv/Submit
adjective
1.
giving an appearance or impression different from the true one; misleading.

misleading
mis%u02C8l%u0113diNG/Submit
adjective
1.
giving the wrong idea or impression.

Heck, I'll even throw in this one since you seem to be struggling...

comprehend
%u02CCkmpri%u02C8hend/Submit
verb
gerund or present participle: comprehending
1.
grasp mentally; understand
Quoting 1217. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Apparently you have trouble comprehending several words. :\

Irrelevant =/= deceptive, misleading, or false in nature.

FYI...

r·rel·e·vant
iˈreləvənt/Submit
adjective
1.
not connected with or relevant to something.

de·cep·tive
diˈseptiv/Submit
adjective
1.
giving an appearance or impression different from the true one; misleading.

mis·lead·ing
misˈlēdiNG/Submit
adjective
1.
giving the wrong idea or impression.


Leave it to Cody to ignore a perfectly valid point.

*whoosh*
Quoting 1218. KoritheMan:


Leave it to Cody to ignore a perfectly valid point.

*whoosh*

I can't ignore what hasn't been presented lol.
Unless something changes...the NWS here just had a huge bust. Issued winter storm warning, and so far nothing in the area.

Too much warm air above my head, it's 32 and raining.

:/

Edit: Kori, chat?
Quoting 1219. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I can't ignore what hasn't been presented lol.


Why do I even bother?

Kids these days.
Also, I don't hear you countering Trent's comment. Is it because you don't have one?

It's okay. We all have to swallow our pride sometimes. I still wuv you, though. <3
Quoting 1221. KoritheMan:


Why do I even bother?

Kids these days.

Typical Kori, reverting to petty attacks once he's realized his argument was folly.

Have fun at Walmart. :)
Quoting 1223. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Typical Kori, reverting to petty attacks once he's realized his argument was folly. :)


You don't have to be trollish Cody, just admit you're wrong so we can all move on with our lives.

kthxbai
Quoting 1223. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Typical Kori, reverting to petty attacks once he's realized his argument was folly.

Have fun at Walmart. :)


Not till Thursday, but thanks for the sentiment.

Love ya, bro. <3
Quoting 1222. KoritheMan:
Also, I don't hear you countering Trent's comment. Is it because you don't have one?

It's okay. We all have to swallow our pride sometimes. I still wuv you, though. <3


He can't ignore something that hasn't been presented, but he has no problem ignoring something that has.
Quoting 1226. wxgeek723:


He can't ignore something that hasn't been presented, but he has no problem ignoring something that has.


Of course.
Quoting 1226. wxgeek723:


He can't ignore something that hasn't been presented, but he has no problem ignoring something that has.

You made a valid point. I don't feel the need to argue about something I was wrong about, unlike other people... *looks at Kori*
Quoting 1228. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You made a valid point. I don't feel the need to argue about something I was wrong about, unlike other people... *looks at Kori*


Nothing you posted about the word "irrelevant" has anything to do with the validity of using synonyms.
Astro why the heck did you have to give me your bad luck? I am increasingly confident tomorrow's snowstorm will underperform for the Mid Atlantic. The temperatures remain warmer than what was modeled earlier. Not to mention the temperature will hover in the mid 30s which will make it that much harder for the snow to accumulate on hard surfaces. Who knows though, still looking for 1"/hr snowfall rates.
Quoting 1230. wxgeek723:
Astro why the heck did you have to give me your bad luck? I am increasingly confident tomorrow's snowstorm will underperform for the Mid Atlantic. The temperatures remain warmer than what was modeled earlier. Not to mention the temperature will hover in the mid 30s which will make it that much harder for the snow to accumulate on hard surfaces. Who knows though, still looking for 1"/hr snowfall rates.


Sorry, the Washibug is afflicting me.

Send me a 6"+ storm, and I might recover. Otherwise, not looking good right now.
Quoting 1228. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You made a valid point. I don't feel the need to argue about something I was wrong about, unlike other people... *looks at Kori*


I respect your modesty
Quoting 1231. Astrometeor:


Sorry, the Washibug is afflicting me.

Send me a 6"+ storm, and I might recover. Otherwise, not looking good right now.


Is the Washibug at all similar to the Recurvebug that assails the Gulf Coast every year and prevents me from getting my hurricanes?
This conversation is getting dragged out because someone refuses to say "I was wrong". Must be that pride thing. Moving on now...

January 2014 finished with 4 tornadoes, all EF0s. None resulted in fatalities, though minor damage was observed.

We should get through much of February with little issue. For the first half of the month, constant arctic intrusions will limit instability and thus the chances for strong to severe storms. By the second half of the month, the flow should become more zonal (west to east) across the United States; this is not favorable for big outbreaks.
Quoting 1233. KoritheMan:


Is the Washibug at all similar to the Recurvebug that assails the Gulf Coast every year and prevents me from getting my hurricanes?


Yea, just with snow instead of hurricanes.
Quoting 1230. wxgeek723:
Astro why the heck did you have to give me your bad luck? I am increasingly confident tomorrow's snowstorm will underperform for the Mid Atlantic. The temperatures remain warmer than what was modeled earlier. Not to mention the temperature will hover in the mid 30s which will make it that much harder for the snow to accumulate on hard surfaces. Who knows though, still looking for 1"/hr snowfall rates.


At least you get snow... All I get this winter is sleet accumulation and ice. Is asking for a record breaking snow down here to much to ask for?
Quoting 1234. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This conversation is getting dragged out because someone refuses to say "I was wrong". Must be that pride thing. Moving on now...

January 2014 finished with 4 tornadoes, all EF0s. None resulted in fatalities, though minor damage was observed.

We should get through much of February with little issue. For the first half of the month, constant arctic intrusions will limit instability and thus the chances for strong to severe storms. By the second half of the month, the flow should become more zonal (west to east) across the United States; this is not favorable for big outbreaks.

I should note though that flooding may become an issue in the South. With the -PNA pattern in place, persistent ridging off the Southeast coast will force the mean storm track through the central/lower Plains and through the Ohio River Valley. That plus an enhanced subtropical jet as the MJO traverses the Pacific will provide plenty of moisture from VA to TX/OK and everywhere in-between.
Quoting 1234. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This conversation is getting dragged out because someone refuses to say "I was wrong". Must be that pride thing.


No Cody, we've been telling you that you've been wrong for a while now. Glad to see you own up to it now.

Thanks!
Quoting 1236. SouthCentralTx:


At least you get snow... All I get this winter is sleet accumulation and ice. Is asking for a record breaking snow down here to much to ask for?


Well hey that's pretty exciting too! Consider the years where you received no wintry precip at all. I think mixing it up is exciting. Remember that winter is a chore, snow may look pretty but always be careful what you wish for. Tracking the weather is all about being patient. Ask Kori, he's been waiting for years for a good hurricane!

You will get your snow. One day.

And I will get....a map greener than fresh produce for now:
Also known as "Um...don't pay any attention to anything we said earlier about accumulating snows."

Quoting 1239. wxgeek723:


Well hey that's pretty exciting too! Consider the years where you received no wintry precip at all. I think mixing it up is exciting. Remember that winter is a chore, snow may look pretty but always be careful what you wish for. Tracking the weather is all about being patient. Ask Kori, he's been waiting for years for a good hurricane!

You will get your snow. One day.

And I will get....a map greener than fresh produce for now:



Oh yeah I completely understand about being patient, we were forced to be patient in 2011 for rain then last year before halloween I got a foot of rain overnight. I've had a couple of small snows like a tenth of a inch of snow over the past few years, was nice but melted the next day.

I was just 10 years old in 2004 when the Christmas Miracle happened and got 4-6 inches of snow. I love experiencing any weather extreme unless it's drought. Makes me feel horrible about California.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST February 3 2014
========================================

At 12:30 pm CST, Monday 3 February, another tropical low, 995 hPa, was located about 100 km south southeast of Wadeye and 100 km northwest of Timber Creek and moving east southeast at 13 km/h.

This low is expected to continue moving east across the Northern Territory south of Katherine during Tuesday to be located over the Roper-McArthur District during Wednesday and Thursday before heading west again later in the week. Although the low is expected to remain over land, there is a possibility the low will move over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday prior to recurving back to the west. There is a moderate risk at this stage that the low may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Tuesday Very Low
Wednesday Moderate
Thursday Moderate
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC EDNA (10U)
5:00 PM EST February 3 2014
============================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Edna (996 hPa) located at 13.8S 154.5E or 1000 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 13.4S 156.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 14.7S 159.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 20.0S 161.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 22.4S 160.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
========================
A relatively small sized system and embedded in the monsoon trough, Ex-TC Edna continued to maintain deep convection near its centre in the last 12 hours. The system has been moving northeastwards but is expected to take a more southeastwards track in the next 12 to 24 hours and then curve towards the south due to an upper trough to its southwest.

Outflow remains very good in the northern and eastern quandrants. The system is currently in a moderate shear zone however movement over the next 24 hours will see the system in a reduced shear environment. This may enable the cloud structures to improve with gales wrapping around a little further than just the northeast quadrant. The current intensity is based on Dvorak analysis of a curved band wrapping 0.35 degrees, yielding a T=2.0.

As the system moves closer to New Caledonia by Thursday, the cyclone is likely to come under the influence of stronger northwest flow and hence weaken below Tropical Cyclone intensity.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE FLETCHER, CATEGORY ONE (08U)
4:03 PM EST February 3 2014
============================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Fletcher, Category One (992 hPa) located at 17.1S 140.9E or 160 km east northeast of Burketown and 70 km south southwest of Gilbert River Mouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
10 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Fletcher is now close to crossing the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast north of Karumba and should move inland this evening.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h are expected this afternoon and tonight between Burketown and Kowanyamah.

The cyclone may weaken overland overnight, but is forecast to recurve towards to the west during Tuesday in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and redevelop. As a result GALES would again be possible between Kowanyamah and Burketown extending to coastal and island communities between the Northern Territory border and Burketown later Tuesday or Wednesday.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 17.1S 141.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.4S 140.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.5S 138.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 17.2S 137.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Mornington radar shows a small and tight circulation now on the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast north of Karumba.

Convection rapidly developed earlier this morning, although curvature on visible imagery has not shown an well defined curved band. Dvorak estimate of FT/CI of 2.5 based on ill-defined curved band signature [0.5 wrap] on visible imagery, however Dvorak trend is not particularly applicable as system has moved from land to water overnight. Cyclone intensity estimated based on well defined radar signature combined with near gales from surface observations northwest of the center earlier today. Gales are mostly likely on the northern side, being enhanced by monsoon flow and speed of motion.

The broadscale environment is favorable for development - diffluent upper wind pattern, low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30-32C. However the system is moving over land which should weaken it below cyclone intensity tonight.

The motion has been easterly under the influence of the monsoonal flow to the north, however this is likely to change tonight and the system should move slowly and somewhat erratically. Numerical models are consistent in depicting a reversal of direction towards the west during Tuesday, as a mid-level ridge to the south builds. This may allow the system access to the warm waters to re-intensify it as a cyclone prior to moving over land once again and weakening. By Thursday it may interact with a second low approaching from the Top End of northern Australia. This interaction may be Fujiwara-like or even vortex merger, although the system will be overland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from the Burketown to Kowanyama.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Northern Territory/Queensland border to Burketown
Anyone have the 00Z ECMWF total snowfall for next weekends storm? I was just wondering if it was similar to the GFS. I sure did like tonight's run of the GFS. It puts me in the 10-12 inch range in NW NC.
7:00 PM EST, Fletcher (992 hPa) has made landfall the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Karumba and Gilbert River Mouth.
Mini squall line just blew through here in GA..no special westher statement but winds repeatedly neared 40 to 45 mph
Quoting 1213. Jedkins01:



You are indeed excused, I didn't know a banana belt was an actual term not necessarily related to banana growth or tropical weather, rather just a region warmer than the surrounding areas.

I stand corrected :)


In Antarctica, the peninsula area is known as 'the banana belt'.
1249. LargoFl
Good Morning!..................
1250. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BALTIMORE AND
HARFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY AND BALTIMORE CITY UNTIL 4
PM.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE
BAY BELOW POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC.

Good morning.

The pattern of fast moving showers will continue in the NE Carribbean for the next few days. Febuary is supposed to by a dry month but it has started above normal in rainfall.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CONSISTENT MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MID WEEK. CURRENT
PRECIPITABLE WATER MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FALLING FROM 1.60 TO
1.08 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SHOOTING UP TO 1.6
INCHES ON FRIDAY WHEN MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THE WEEK AFTER NEXT WEEK.
1252. LargoFl
1253. LargoFl
1254. LargoFl
Short Term Forecast

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
557 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

FLZ043-139-142-148-149-239-242-248-249-031400-
SUMTER-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...YANKEETOWN...
CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...HERNANDO BEACH...BAYPORT...
PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...WILLISTON. ..
INVERNESS...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...DADE CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS
557 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 3
MILES...WITH DENSE FOG PATCHES THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN VEHICLES.

$$

COLSON
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 36 degrees with a wind chill of 28. The rain moved out in the last hour or so. We have a high of 50 forecasted for later today. Guess I'll watch the bridges today. I'm also watching Thursday's forecast so far. They're saying rain with temp of 29. But that's several days away yet.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: shrimp and spinach omelet, Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, scrambled eggs with ricotta and brocolini, eggs and hash browns, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, berry breakfast pizza, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, pancakes and maple syrup, thick slices of fried honey ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
NWS has backed off the snow for Washington D.C.

Today
Rain, snow, and sleet before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm. High near 37. North wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind 3 to 6 mph.

Tuesday Cloudy, with a high near 36. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.

Tuesday Night Rain. Low around 32. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 46. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
1257. LargoFl
1258. LargoFl
1259. ncstorm
Good Morning all..

Quoting 1251. Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

The pattern of fast moving showers will continue in the NE Carribbean for the next few days. Febuary is supposed to by a dry month but it has started above normal in rainfall.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CONSISTENT MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MID WEEK. CURRENT
PRECIPITABLE WATER MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FALLING FROM 1.60 TO
1.08 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SHOOTING UP TO 1.6
INCHES ON FRIDAY WHEN MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THE WEEK AFTER NEXT WEEK.


Good morning everyone

A beautiful morning here on the island!

Had a huge Super Bowl party in our yard last night. Of course, 20 minutes before the game started, the power blew out on three islands, St. Thomas, Water Island and St. John. You could hear the screams of frustration. Fortunately, where we live we are on the hospital line so are always the first to be restored. It came on three minutes before the game started. I understand that we were a few between the islands to see the game. Have no idea what happened but that's two years in a row for Super Bowl time. PO'd workers??

On another note: Really hoping this forecast works out, Tropics! My sis and bro-in-law escaped the snow storms in Eastern Ontario to catch a cruise and are scheduled to come in for the day on Thursday. I've got an amazing day planned for them and it doesn't include rain!!

Have a great day, everyone

Lindy

Have

1"/1.5" per hour rates at my house in York County, PA right now. Shew its coming down hard :p
Nothing but rain here.A non event for me.
TC Fletcher is now ex-TC Fletcher but is forecast to regenerate.


And Ex-TC Edna is forecast to make a comeback.


This Tropical Low looked good this morning before it crossed land. This is being predicted to continue east and become a TC in the GOC later this week.

Alerts for Guilford: Winter Storm Watch, Winter Weather Advisory...winter storm watch is more Tuesday night
You would think the rainy season is starting especially after I picked up 2.61" last week with many areas picking up close to 5".

We had some seabreeze action yesterday. Shortly after at around 6:30 it poured.


Winter Storm Maximus is update to more snow now someone will get 12 inches of snow!! 2inches of snow in one hour to.
3" of snow already.
Amazing 2 weekends of great "Fair" weather at the Hoggetowne Fair. It is usually at least one day of FREEZING weather and one Amazingly wet day during the 5 day weekend run, but this year all the rain and the worst of the cold happened during the week days in between. It was fantastic!
OK, we can turn back on regular weather now.

Thanks Dr. M for posting good weather and science communication to combat the pro-ignorance media.

Not to steal the thunder from the current snow storm but...

Despite the timing
and track differences...the low should be a deep one. The general
model consensus is 980s...but some of the ensemble members are in
the 970s S of Li.

Have mercy!
this is starting to look bad here!! someone will get 12 inches of snow
JeffMasters has created a new entry.