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California's Record Warmth and Drought Won't Stop Outdoor NHL Hockey

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:41 PM GMT on January 23, 2014

No rain or snow fell anywhere in California over the past week, prompting no change to the drought rankings for the state in today's U.S. Drought Monitor update. California's area experiencing extreme drought remained at 63%, making it one of the three worst winter droughts in state history. To break the drought, most of the state needs more than 12" of precipitation, and most of the southern half of the state needs more than a year of rainfall to fall in one month. On Wednesday, the San Francisco Bay area experienced its 10th consecutive day of record highs, with Oakland, Mountain View, Jan Jose, and Gilroy all hitting record highs of 72° - 75°. According to the National Weather Service, since December 23, record highs have been reported in the Bay Area a remarkable 22 out of 32 days.


Figure 1. One of the key water supply reservoirs for Central California, Lake Oroville, as seen on January 17, 2014. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.


Figure 2. The amount of precipitation that must fall in one month to break the California drought is equivalent to more than a year's worth in most of the southern half of the state. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Outdoor hockey in record-warm Southern California?
The heat is also on in Southern California, where Burbank, California, located about 10 miles north-northwest of downtown Los Angeles, hit 81° on Wednesday. Not only was that a record high for the date, it also set a new record for consecutive January days with highs of 80° or above--ten. The previous record was eight consecutive days, set in 2009. A rare January fire weather watch is posted for the area, where offshore Santa Ana winds and humidities below 20% will heighten the fire danger Thursday and Friday.

The record warm weather in Southern California will not deter the National Hockey League from playing its first-ever outdoor hockey game in the U.S. west of the Rocky Mountains on Saturday in Los Angeles' Dodger Stadium. Puck drop is scheduled for Saturday at 7:15 pm, and temperatures are expected to be near 70° after a daytime high of 80°. The ice will be protected from the sun's heat during the day by an insulated, heat-reflecting Mylar blanket, according to an article in the Los Angeles Times. A 53-foot truck that houses pumps and refrigeration equipment will circulate glycol coolant at the rate of 1,000 gallons a minute through ice pans set up beneath the ice to keep the ice temperature at 22 degrees.


Figure 3. California Governor Jerry Brown holds a chart showing statewide average precipitation as he declares a drought state of emergency for California during a news conference on January 17, 2014 in San Francisco. At his State of the State address on Wednesday, Governor Brown said, "we do not know how much our current problem derives from the build-up of heat-trapping gasses, but we can take this drought as a stark warning of things to come.” Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images.

The forecast: no drought relief in sight
Less than an inch of precipitation has fallen over more than 95% of the state so far in January 2014, and the prospects for significant rain through the end of January look bleak. The large and persistent ridge of high pressure that has set up over the West Coast and shows no signs of budging. Since rain-bearing low pressure system tend to travel along the axis of the jet stream, these storms are being carried along the axis of the ridge, well to the north of California and into Southeast Alaska, leaving California exceptionally dry. Over the past few days, the GFS and European models have at times predicted that the ridge would weaken in 8 - 10 days and allow rain to move into Northern California. However, these forecasts have not been consistent, and forecasts that far into the future are not reliable, as it is very difficult to dislodge such a persistent and strong upper-level wind pattern.

Jeff Masters

Drought Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 996. Jedkins01:


However, in reality, I think the subtropical climate really is just the Florida peninsula and everywhere else along and near the the gulf coast including southeast TX, LA, MS, AL and south GA.
That's how I've always defined it. Pretty sure that's the official distinction too, at least for Louisiana (and I'm not sure why the climates of those other states you mentioned would be appreciably different).
Quoting 999. nigel20:
Have a great night and weekend, guys!

You too, Nigel!
Quoting 985. Climate175:
Earth's movement is heading into the way of spring.


but you make it sound so much like astrology, Mars in retrograde and all. oh well, truth after all.

As far as I'm concerned, to quote a famous singer 'I've seen sunny days that I thought would never end' has been true for the past several weeks, seem to be caught on the eastern edge of the ridge that has been plaguing CA.

Granted, morning temps like the 0's, but it warms up nicely in the day to the 40's. I still have 2 feet of snow in my back yard, and the Roaring Fork river which borders my back yard is still got lots of ice running through it,

While the local snowpack is presently decent, I'd like to see more, if not to help feed CA with it's drought.
Alright guys I will be back Sunday okay to cover the next snow event.
Yet another round of snow is making its way through tonight. Around 3-4" are expected tonight and tomorrow!
98P has really blown up. Has an exposed broad low that the convection is beginning to cover more & more as the shear lessens. Click pick for loop.

HAZMAT in USA on Friday, 10 January, 2014 at 16:45 (04:45 PM) UTC.

Back
Updated: Friday, 24 January, 2014 at 05:55 UTC
Description
More than 500 people have gone to area hospitals to report symptoms they believe are a result of the Elk River chemical spill. About half of those people went to the hospital after West Virginia American Water Co. and state officials first started telling people to flush contaminated water out of their pipes. "What was kind of interesting on this was the number of people that went to the hospital after they started using the water and it was 'cleared,'" said Janet Briscoe, director of epidemiology and emergency preparedness for the Kanawha-Charleston Health Department. "When you would think, you know, your water's fine, you wouldn't be having water-related illness," she continued. Since an unknown amount of chemicals leaked into the Elk River Jan. 9, 533 people have been "evaluated" at 10 different area hospitals, said Allison Adler, state Department of Health and Human Resources spokeswoman. During the same time frame, 26 people were admitted and released from six hospitals, she said. "As DHHR surveyed hospitals for this information, "patients evaluated" is defined as individuals presenting to the emergency department with symptoms they report as being associated with the Elk River Chemical Spill," Adler said in an email. The state Poison Control hotline has received more than 2,500 calls: 2,008 related to affects on people, 100 related to animals and another 447 just looking for information, Adler said. These numbers spiked right after the spill, and again when people were told they could start flushing, said Dr. Rahul Gupta, head of the Kanawha-Charleston Health Department. West Virginia American Water and the state started telling some customers Jan. 13 they could flush their pipes. Since the morning of Jan. 14, 256 people have gone to emergency rooms and 13 people have been admitted, Briscoe said.
Quoting 1006. Skyepony:
98P has really blown up. Has an exposed broad low that the convection is beginning to cover more & more as the shear lessens. Click pick for loop.

Possible Kofi???
Quoting 900. Dakster:


Teens would be record and biter cold here, but kinda nasty for you as your snow turns to slush and ice. IIRC, your area doesn't salt, just sands because it is too cold for the salt to work? Does everything look nasty like break-up time around you?

We use a mix of sand and salt, mostly sand. Rocky, windshield chipping stuff.

Teens would be welcome, and at least get the ice under control. Plow trucks are scratching the highways with scarifier blades, that sure helps 'roughen' the road ice.

Doesn't look like 'dog-poop' weather yet, we still have a lovely 22 inches of snow. Was 26 inches, now there is an inch of ice crust and it has condensed. Still powdery (for awhile) underneath.

Weather like this is hard on the moose, they will suffer heat stress in their heavy winter coats with temps above zero. Parasites will abound. And with that ice crust on the snow, they may injure their legs as they walk through it.

Thawing Arctic


1010. flsky
Gonna get wet in a bit....
Link
Quoting 978. HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, Tallahassee is warm temperate, even though some definitions will paint Tallahassee all the way north to the Mid-Atlantic as "humid subtropical". Right.

I drove I10 along the Panhandle in mid-November 2007 and the deciduous trees were at peak color, very impressive. Almost a solid wall of orange, red, yellow and purple with some conifers mixed in. Orlando is subtropical. Miami, is tropical (based on averages), despite the very infrequent cold fronts that can affect the area.
I've seen a few years where the fall colors were impressive even in Central Florida. What it takes is a cold shot a bit earlier than usual, in October for instance, followed by a colder than normal early November, preferably with frost by the middle of that month. This is not especially common but it can happen and when it does, the deciduous trees in Central Florida come alive with Autumn coloring.

If you draw a line across the state from Tampa to Melbourne and then continue up to the latitude of Ocala, the following deciduous tree types that can produce fall color are common:

1. Southern Red Maple
2. Sweetgum
3. American Elm
4. Sycamore
5. Water Oak
6. Pin Oak
7. Turkey Oak
8. Post Oak
9. Southern Red Oak
10. Bald Cypress
11. Carolina Ash
12. Mockernut Hickory
13.Pignut Hickory
14 Mulberry
15. Poplar

There are other varieties of deciduous trees in Central and North Central Florida as well, though they are less common and often are non-native, ornamental species. But the end result is that we can get a lot more fall color here than most people would suspect. Most would think that there is no fall color at all on the Florida peninsula but as with so many other Florida myths, this is not the case. Then again, North Florida and the Panhandle do outdo us in this regard, due to climate type and a wider variety of deciduous species.

Live Oaks are the most abundant type of deciduous tree in Central Florida but they do not turn color and lose their leaves in the Autumn. Instead, the Live Oaks turn a yellowish-brown in early Spring and drop their leaves en masse just before the new blooms come in a week or so later. If they were like the other deciduous species and turned color in the Fall, Central Florida would be bursting with Fall color to rival Vermont, in years when we got early cold snaps.
Link

Bucharest, the Romanian capital. And this is just the beginning.
Quoting 996. Jedkins01:



Tallahassee isn't tropical, but subtropical, although it is less tropical here than further south. You do see an interesting mix of both temperate and tropical foliage, as we do get some fall colors, although overall, subtropical evergreens still dominate. Additionally, plenty of palm trees, ferns, and other tropical plants still grow, and while it does snow here, and does have a record low of -2, very cold temps below 20 are still rare, and snow is still rare. Also, days experienced where temperatures stay below 40 are rare as well. Therefore, we are subtropical, as most of the year features warm, humid weather with periods of heavy rain. In fact, the duration of winter really isn't much longer here than it is in Central Florida. We can also get plenty of warm weather in the winter if a ridge is present with a south wind as warm humid air is not far south in the gulf.


Given this, I would say North Florida is a "battleground" but is still definitely subtropical. If you've been here, it looks and feels like it in every way, except for when we do have really cold stretches of course lol.

The only area I would say that has a truly tropical climate is extreme south Florida where cold weather is of very short duration and warm humid weather even dominates most of the winter.

Also, most of Florida receives 48 to 58 inches of rain per year, but extreme south Florida typically receives from 55 to over 70 in extreme south Florida.

Its dry season is even drier than further north, with a longer and more potent rainy season found than in Central and North Florida. South Florida is nearly a tropical monsoon climate almost like that of south India, just a more moderated version.



Also, humid subtropical technically includes all of the deep south and up the East Coast to about southeast Virginia and near D.C.

However, in reality, I think the subtropical climate really is just the Florida peninsula and everywhere else along and near the the gulf coast including southeast TX, LA, MS, AL and south GA.
Jedkins, your weather knowledge is second to no one else's, in my opinion. But I have to disagree with you just s little bit when you suggest that Tallahassee and North Florida in general "looks and feels" subtropical.

Maybe one could argue successfully that it feels subtropical at least some of the time but around Tallahassee especially I don't agree that it looks that way. You say that palm trees grow there and a few species do but not many. And when one drives around town, palms are much less prevalent than they are further south in Florida. In fact, if it weren't for the few non-native palms that are planted in sheltered areas and the native cabbage palmettos that grow sparsely there due to the heavily clay-laden and decidedly less sandy soil, there would be very little tropical-looking vegetation at all in Tally. Whenever I have been there I have marveled at how Tallahassee looks a lot more like somewhere near the Atlanta Metro than it does Tampa or Orlando, to say nothing of Miami. Tallahassee and Miami seem as if they are in different regions from one another altogether as well as in completely different states.

Also, I cannot put my finger on it exactly but in summer Tallahassee and most of interior North Florida feel different from the areas further south. Somehow while one feels the humidity in the air it has a less oppressive feel to it, it seems more like Georgia or Alabama summer air than Tampa summer air. Maybe it is just me but I have noticed a difference, definitely.
1014. flsky
Quoting 962. opal92nwf:

I happens - deal with it. Temps are still rising. Don't you read this blog?????
1015. LargoFl
Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ150-162>164-251 100-
ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COLUM BIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-S T JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
UNION-WARE-
201 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

...LIGHT SLEET MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT SLEET MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. AT 1 AM
EST...OBSERVATIONS OF LIGHT SLEET WERE REPORTED NEAR VALDOSTA
GEORGIA AS WELL AS WITHIN THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNRISE. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHERE THE SLEET
FALLS.

$$

ENYEDI
1016. LargoFl
Orlando etc getting some light rain right now..
1017. LargoFl
Gfs for later today.............
42 and light rain here in longwood. Forecast was for no rain.
I told you that i will come today with some images of the snow storm that was forecast in the last few days. I uploaded a 36 seconds video on youtube. Link
1020. LargoFl
too early to say just how cold wens gets around me....
1021. LargoFl
and its PARTY TIME TODAY IN TAMPA.................
1022. LargoFl
Should be a very nice day for the parade and events in tampa...................
1023. LargoFl
Evolution of the snow storm. This was filmed At 1 PM.Link
1025. VR46L
Morning Folks !!

You know that winter storm you had a couple of days ago around DC .....

1026. VR46L
Sat VIS of Europe

1027. VR46L
Quoting 1024. matara28:
Evolution of the snow storm. This was filmed At 1 PM.Link


There is a great spin on that storm its probably very Nasty weather in the Balkans right now !
1028. VR46L
Image from the OPC Twitter feed

Quoting 1027. VR46L:


There is a great spin on that storm its probably very Nasty weather in the Balkans right now !

Yes. It is a nasty weather here. The wind gusts are 78 - 85 km/h and the snow is very heavy, here in south of Romania. I will upload more images in the evening.
1030. VR46L
Quoting 1029. matara28:

Yes. It is a nasty weather here. The wind gusts are 78 - 85 km/h and the snow is very heavy, here in south of Romania. I will upload more images in the evening.


Yeah 3 rather potent storms around Europe , Your storm . the storm off Norway and the deepening system in the Mid Atlantic that is shaping to batter me !
Quoting 1030. VR46L:


Yeah 3 rather potent storms around Europe , Your storm . the storm off Norway and the deepening system in the Mid Atlantic that is shaping to batter me !

This winter you had many storms there with life threateing conditions.
On the other side, here it was a very unusual winter with high temperatures and this is the first snow storm of the season, but this is a dangerous one. Europe has a very dynamic and interestning weather.
1032. VR46L
Quoting 1031. matara28:

This winter you had many storms there with life threateing conditions.
On the other side, here it was a very unusual winter with high temperatures and this is the first snow storm of the season, but this is a dangerous one. Europe has a very dynamic and interestning weather.


Hmmm , do you really think so ... we don't have the severe that tornado alley experience or the Category5 experience of hurricane ! I find US weather really Fascinating compared
Quoting 1032. VR46L:


Hmmm , do you really think so ... we don't have the severe that tornado alley experience or the Category5 experience of hurricane ! I find US weather really Fascinating compared

Yes, this is true, but think about it. US has that huge plain which allows rapid change of air masses. But Europe too has extreme weather ( not as US ) Powerful snow storms, Mediterranean storms, West coast Atlantic storms, North Sea storms and inland thunderstorms and even tornadoes. I find European weather intersetning too, but, of course, if i want to chase hurricanes and tornadoes i'll choose US. For winter storms, S-E of Romania is perfect. Here you meet a configuration of the land whic allows, at a small scale, the same rapid changes as the great american plains. And we are between Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea.
In the news
Mavericks California yesterday


About Europe - They may be getting some of the storms normally found in the Bering Sea. It is not uncommon to see hurricane force winds and very low pressures in those systems.
1035. hydrus
1036. hydrus
I truly am concerned with the pattern that will be setting up over the next two weeks. If it pans out, winter storms will wreak havoc on a large portion of the Eastern U.S.
168 hours.
240 hours.

348 hours.

384 hours.
1037. WxLogic
Quoting 1035. hydrus:


Lowest extent of the wintry type precipitation by 15Z Wednesday AM



Assuming it pans out, but at least is good to dream. :)
Good morning. The dry season has arrived in Puerto Rico but also the surfers season is underway.

1039. jaxnole
Yeah, the 15Z GFS preciploop does show light wintry mix around Jacksonville area on Wednesday morning just before the precipitation ends and exits off the coast as the dry, very cold arctic air filters in the region.
Many of the GFS ensembles are showing a snow potential from N FL to NC. Snow could be significant as well especially from Tally to NC. C FL appears to be in a warm airmass so all rain down here with thunderstorms possible.

Most of the 8 to 16 day GFS ensembles are showing very heavy rain & severe weather across the Ohio & Tennessee Valley's. Also looks like 80 to 90 degree heat is on its way back to FL.

1042. jaxnole
A very good discussion this morning by the WFO in Tallahassee regarding potential wintry precip across extreme North Floriday Tuesday night into Wednesday morning:

The main story is the potential for wintry precip on Tuesday
night. Both the 24/00z ECMWF and 24/12z GFS agree on the large
scale pattern, featuring a positively tilted upper level trough, a
weak area of low pressure in the Gulf, and an Arctic airmass.
However, as with almost all cases of wintry weather in this part
of the country, the fine details are what really make the
difference, and there are HUGE differences in the vertical
temperature profile between the GFS and ECMWF. One can see this
just by examining the 850 mb temperatures on 12z Wednesday, which
range from -5C on the 24/00z ECMWF to +4C on the 24/12z GFS for
Tallahassee. The GFS forecast soundings in BUFKIT look more like
freezing rain soundings for areas that can manage to get a surface
temp below freezing. Meanwhile, the ECMWF looks more like snow. At
this point still being several days away, there are way too many
uncertainties with this potential unusual event to be too
specific, other than to say that there is a chance of a mix of
precip types across a large part of the area. Behind this system,
another cold airmass appears likely.
Battle of the air masses. Spring meets Winter.

1044. nymore
This looks nice:

A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning, bringing strong northwest winds with gusts up to 55 mph. The fresh snow combined with these winds will set the stage for possible ground blizzard conditions, and a blizzard watch has been issued for Sunday. Visibilties will be near zero at times, and widespread whiteout conditions are possible. This blizzard has the potential to be the most severe of the season, and could be a life threatening situation if you become stranded.

Wind chill values may approach -50F degrees by Sunday evening. These dangerous wind chills may continue through Monday night.

Source local NWS
I'll hand it to TA for being right about the NAM

I woke up and was pleasantly surprised that my prediction of it dropping the snow failed




cant wait to see the 12Z.... havent seen any other models, anything else I should know?
Quoting 1038. Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. The dry season has arrived in Puerto Rico but also the surfers season is underway.



Beautiful wave setup. I'd be rushing to the beach for waves like that (calling in sick, etc).
picture looks like rincon prico
Quoting 961. opal92nwf:
Arctic Sea Ice Volume in 2013 Up 50%

As discussed here numerous times before, this is to be expected. The natural fluctuations - the noise moving about the trend - will continue as ice continues to decline. But as the background trend in ice quantity (this can be either extent or volume) nears 0.0, the fluctuations will appear larger and larger, due to simple arithmetic alone.
the NAM is pure beauty...streaming moisture int 20F air off an impulse that by the end of the run is still in TX

at hr 84 its still snowingh here
Quoting 1041. StormTrackerScott:
Most of the 8 to 16 day GFS ensembles are showing very heavy rain & severe weather across the Ohio & Tennessee Valley's. Also looks like 80 to 90 degree heat is on its way back to FL.



Bring it on. I can't wait for the warm weather to return.
The cold dry air has me with a sore throat and constant runny nose. I guess I've developed an allergy to cold continental air.
Quoting 1047. islander101010:
picture looks like rincon prico


Yes,is Rincon that is surfers paradise where many surfing competitions take place by surfers from around the world.
Quoting 1030. VR46L:


Yeah 3 rather potent storms around Europe , Your storm . the storm off Norway and the deepening system in the Mid Atlantic that is shaping to batter me !


It's not expected to be bad (ie worse than any other Atlantic storm) here at least. Possible flooding in SW England due to the wet month but the front will clear to squally showers by tomorrow lunchtime. Which we have right now, 45F dropping in the downpours.

The models don't have a clue how the pattern will work out, we have marginal rain/snow temperatures here every day next week. A touch of cold air from the continent and some low-lying areas will get perhaps the only big snow event of winter. Fantastic weather for the ski season between the systems.
12Z so far is following the 0z and 6z by bringing the energy across mexico...

either it's right or it busts completely.

I wish for the former but believe the latter


Chesapeake Bay Bridge
The NAM energy undegoes an odd transition of ownership from a pacific low to the continental trough....not sure I believe that happens.


edit:

Nam is much further south...precip shield stays nearerr to he gulf coast..aka less snow for me so far.

Regardless of where the energy goes, it appears im not getting a big snow

It builds north but by then the low is moving such that the precip shield is moving to the carolinas and i miss out on the best of the snow

1057. jpsb
Quoting 1036. hydrus:
I truly am concerned with the pattern that will be setting up over the next two weeks. If it pans out, winter storms will wreak havoc on a large portion of the Eastern U.S.
168 hours.
240 hours.

348 hours.

384 hours.
Just in time for the Super Bowl! I'd bet this is the last time the Super Bowl is played in a northern outdoor stadium.
Quoting 1054. Doppler22:

Chesapeake Bay Bridge


When I was young my friend and I ice skated out on the Potomac River just south of Washington D.C. near Mount Vernon. My friend's parents had a house on an inlet right off the river.
The inlet would freeze most cold winters, but not the main river. But this one winter the ice was thick enough for us to skate out on the river.

What was cool was the river/inlet had about a 3' tide so the ice would rise and fall with the tide. So we would have to climb down onto the ice during low tide and then we could just walk off the ice during high tide.
Quoting 1056. Tropicsweatherpr:
Researchers digging into data on quiet 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season
Only 127 days away.
Quoting 1059. Climate175:
Only 127 days away.


Just waiting for the Atlantic Basin Superstorm influenced by GW's increased ocean temps. That's the theory.
Last year was the opposite for the Atlantic Basin. But we all know what happened in the WestPac.
1061. VR46L
Quoting 1052. westscotweather:


It's not expected to be bad (ie worse than any other Atlantic storm) here at least. Possible flooding in SW England due to the wet month but the front will clear to squally showers by tomorrow lunchtime. Which we have right now, 45F dropping in the downpours.

The models don't have a clue how the pattern will work out, we have marginal rain/snow temperatures here every day next week. A touch of cold air from the continent and some low-lying areas will get perhaps the only big snow event of winter. Fantastic weather for the ski season between the systems.


Aye , just feeling a little sorry for myself ! Not looking forward to the idea of snow following though ... not one bit !
Quoting 1060. Sfloridacat5:


Just waiting for the Atlantic Basin Superstorm influenced by GW's increased ocean temps. That's the theory.
Last year was the opposite for the Atlantic Basin. But we all know what happened in the WestPac.
1063. GatorWX
Largo,

Just saw a video about your city's new snow plows. :)

Morning everyone.

TGIS! (being that I work Saturdays, Fridays don't seem so significant). Started off a little chilly, 44 F. So far, this winter hasn't provided too many bitter cold lows, although I suspect we'll end up below average at the end of the month. Average temps are 51/71 F. As of now, we're about 2 F below average for both the high and low temp with a little under an inch of rain. Just enough change of season for me and my motorcycle. On side note, I hear chickens, so I guess my neighbors replenished their stock. Haven't had any for awhile.

Have a great weekend all!
1064. WxLogic
12Z NAM has quite a bit of snow on the deep south. At least is interesting. :)

Quoting 1059. Climate175:
Only 127 days away.


Less than that
Still Possible!!

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
608 am EST Sat Jan 25 2014

Long term [monday night through friday]...
the main story is the potential for wintry precip on Tuesday
night. Both the 24/00z European model (ecmwf) and 24/12z GFS agree on the large
scale pattern, featuring a positively tilted upper level trough, a
weak area of low pressure in the Gulf, and an Arctic airmass.
However, as with almost all cases of wintry weather in this part
of the country, the fine details are what really make the
difference, and there are huge differences in the vertical
temperature profile between the GFS and European model (ecmwf). One can see this
just by examining the 850 mb temperatures on 12z Wednesday, which
range from -5c on the 24/00z European model (ecmwf) to 4c on the 24/12z GFS for
Tallahassee. The GFS forecast soundings in BUFKIT look more like
freezing rain soundings for areas that can manage to get a surface
temp below freezing. Meanwhile, the European model (ecmwf) looks more like snow. At
this point still being several days away, there are way too many
uncertainties with this potential unusual event to be too
specific, other than to say that there is a chance of a mix of
precip types across a large part of the area. Behind this system,
another cold airmass appears likely.
Quoting 1066. Tropicsweatherpr:


Less than that
Dang Hurricane Season is coming quicker than you know it, Spring in the Northern Hemisphere is only 54 days away.
1069. Grothar
...........In North America, humid subtropical climates are almost exclusively the domain of the American South, including the following states: the eastern half of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, most of Florida and Virginia and sections of West Virginia. The climate in many of these states is subject to extremes.


1070. Gearsts
Quoting 1059. Climate175:
Only 127 days away.
I am SO ready!
I'm betting on Isais to be the strongest storm.A C4. What do you guys think?
We have a line of thunderstorms coming across England at the moment . . . getting windy!

"98P" (09F)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
1:00 AM NZDT January 26 2014
=============================================

LOW 1005HPA NEAR 25S 178E MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10KT.
class='blogquote'>Quoting 1070. Gearsts:


A few minutes ago the skies cleared (bright sunshine) here in Fort Myers as the high clouds just moved off to the South.
.
1078. Gearsts

What is causing the warm pool in the NE Pac?
It looks a lot warmer in the South Atlantic than usual.
1081. LargoFl
Quoting 1067. opal92nwf:
Still Possible!!

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
608 am EST Sat Jan 25 2014

Long term [monday night through friday]...
the main story is the potential for wintry precip on Tuesday
night. Both the 24/00z European model (ecmwf) and 24/12z GFS agree on the large
scale pattern, featuring a positively tilted upper level trough, a
weak area of low pressure in the Gulf, and an Arctic airmass.
However, as with almost all cases of wintry weather in this part
of the country, the fine details are what really make the
difference, and there are huge differences in the vertical
temperature profile between the GFS and European model (ecmwf). One can see this
just by examining the 850 mb temperatures on 12z Wednesday, which
range from -5c on the 24/00z European model (ecmwf) to 4c on the 24/12z GFS for
Tallahassee. The GFS forecast soundings in BUFKIT look more like
freezing rain soundings for areas that can manage to get a surface
temp below freezing. Meanwhile, the European model (ecmwf) looks more like snow. At
this point still being several days away, there are way too many
uncertainties with this potential unusual event to be too
specific, other than to say that there is a chance of a mix of
precip types across a large part of the area. Behind this system,
another cold airmass appears likely.
yes my local met is surely uncertain just how cold it will be in my area
1082. LargoFl
Quoting 1063. GatorWX:
Largo,

Just saw a video about your city's new snow plows. :)

Morning everyone.

TGIS! (being that I work Saturdays, Fridays don't seem so significant). Started off a little chilly, 44 F. So far, this winter hasn't provided too many bitter cold lows, although I suspect we'll end up below average at the end of the month. Average temps are 51/71 F. As of now, we're about 2 F below average for both the high and low temp with a little under an inch of rain. Just enough change of season for me and my motorcycle. On side note, I hear chickens, so I guess my neighbors replenished their stock. Haven't had any for awhile.

Have a great weekend all!
LOL snow plows huh LMAO
Quoting 1072. Haiyan2013:
I'm betting on Isais to be the strongest storm.A C4. What do you guys think?
The I storms always seems to be hurricanes.
1084. Dakster
GRO - Are you hopefully back in the warm?

I can tell I live in the wrong place. I woke up this morning at it was in the mid 60's and sunny outside. This was maybe 8:30am EST. I am in shorts, a short sleeve t-shirt, and no shoes on. I start hosing off the car and I am drenched in sweat. This is after just grabbing the hose and getting the car wet. I just wanted to knock the dust off the car as nothing drives me crazier than getting in or out of a car and getting dirt all over you.

Then at separate times two of my neighbors come strolling by in what looks like arctic gear, and they are shivering... They are in a full on strut with their dogs.

Am I just that messed up or are they?
1085. LargoFl
wow GFS has SNOW wens for the panhandle of florida...
Quoting 1080. Haiyan2013:
It looks a lot warmer in the South Atlantic than usual.
We watch this area in June.
for surf? puerto rico is very fickle. the island does have world class surfing spots but they dont break all that often. surf is more consistent on the pacific shores
Quoting 1083. Climate175:
The I storms always seems to be hurricanes.
I call it the "I Curse".
The 72-hour GFS shows some anomalously nasty cold air invading both the central and eastern US, along with a chunk of Northern Asia, while the Arctic continues to be (relatively) torched.

GFS

By 168 hours, the lower tier of the US is warming up nicely, while the northern tier is still below climatology. Meanwhile, the Siberian deep freeze continues--and the Arctic warms up even more (overall 7.24C above climatology).

GFS

Interesting...
Quoting 1088. Haiyan2013:
I call it the "I Curse".
Isaias sounds like a storm that will form in the Atlantic, my gut has that feeling.
Quoting 1086. Climate175:
We watch this area in June.
I meant the southern hemisphere Atlantic.
Quoting 1058. Sfloridacat5:


When I was young my friend and I ice skated out on the Potomac River just south of Washington D.C. near Mount Vernon. My friend's parents had a house on an inlet right off the river.
The inlet would freeze most cold winters, but not the main river. But this one winter the ice was thick enough for us to skate out on the river.

What was cool was the river/inlet had about a 3' tide so the ice would rise and fall with the tide. So we would have to climb down onto the ice during low tide and then we could just walk off the ice during high tide.


I remember the Potomac almost freezing over in Jan 1973 (not a cold winter). After that I was busy with high school and didn't take notice but 1974 and 1975 would not have been freezing years. Jan 1976 might have.. it was cold.

I was in college (VPI first two years before transferring to PSU and paying the out of state tuition) in January 1977 when it was bitter cold and possible to
drive a car across the river (not safe but it was possible you'd make it) A prankster drove a car out on the ice, cut a car sized hole and then carefully backed out to make it look like a car had fallen through. Chesapeake Bay froze coast to coast.

I lived in South Waynewood 1972-76 and went to the old Fort Hunt High which is now West Potomac high I think. The old school was destroyed by arson in 1980
My parents retired to Fort Myers in 1979 but moved back to the mid Atlantic area in 1989.
Quoting 1091. Haiyan2013:
I meant the southern hemisphere Atlantic.
Oh yeah that area appears to be warming up.
Quoting 1081. LargoFl:
yes my local met is surely uncertain just how cold it will be in my area

Where are you
Quoting 1094. opal92nwf:

Where are you


Judging by his name, I would say he is in Largo, FL
1096. GatorWX
Quoting 1082. LargoFl:
LOL snow plows huh LMAO


1097. Dakster
Quoting 1095. luvtogolf:


Judging by his name, I would say he is in Largo, FL


Now you are making sense, that is against the rules. Even though I happen to know he lives in the area of Largo or Tampa, FL.
Quoting 1068. Climate175:
Dang Hurricane Season is coming quicker than you know it, Spring in the Northern Hemisphere is only 54 days away.


The first day of Spring and the first Spring day are sometimes separated by a month or more esp in the North.
I wonder if we will have a rare S. Atlantic cyclone.
Wow 6zGFS has come around to the Euro's thinking, nice! 12z is coming out now.

Hitting me now . . . hail, rain, lightning and gusts of 50mph! Dare I say the word Derecho? ????

1102. Dakster
Quoting 1098. georgevandenberghe:


The first day of Spring and the first Spring day are sometimes separated by a month or more esp in the North.


Isn't that the truth.
Even though I don't believe in GW/CC to the extent of most people, if everyone in the world had the ability to stop all emmission/deforestations/any significant impacts to the earth right now, I would do it.

It's too risky: better be safe than sorry. (to put it very simply)
Quoting 1099. Haiyan2013:
I wonder if we will have a rare S. Atlantic cyclone.
Me too, it did happen before in 2004.
Cyclone Catarina that hit Brazil.
Quoting 1100. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow 6zGFS has come around to the Euro's thinking, nice! 12z is coming out now.



Is that snow for Jacksonville, FL? I sure hope so!!!

Eric
Quoting 1104. Climate175:
Me too, it did happen before in 2004.
y 2010 and 2011 to.
Quoting 1104. Climate175:
Me too, it did happen before in 2004.

It might mean that we will have another crazy Atlantic Hurricane Season!!!

Cyclone Catarina
1109. GatorWX
Quoting 1101. DraytonDave:
Hitting me now . . . hail, rain, lightning and gusts of 50mph! Dare I say the word Derecho? ????



Nasty!
1110. wxmod
Best farmland in the USA. Sacramento Valley. Top MODIS satellite photo is taken in late January 2013. Bottom is taken late January 2014.





1111. Dakster
wxmod - That is scary if this keeps up.
Quoting 1095. luvtogolf:


Judging by his name, I would say he is in Largo, FL

I understand now (;............
Quoting 1100. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow 6zGFS has come around to the Euro's thinking, nice! 12z is coming out now.


Actually, it's the Euro that has come around to the GFS, which I don't find surprising. The 0z ECMWF run kept almost all of the moisture offshore, and while the 6z GFS did trend slightly in the direction the ECMWF had been showing previously, 12z went right back far out to sea. Obviously it could still change again, but the prospects for widespread significant snow in the South remain dim IMO.
1114. Dakster
Couldn't drought be a way of mother nature preparing to burn the forest for a fresh start? We know that forest fires are "good" for the forest and that we continually interrupt that process so when there is a fire it is devastating.

This could be a really bad fire season for the west cost of the US. I talked with a friend that lives in Washington State and they are worried because there is no snow pack like there should be. It is also worrisome because that is where their drinking water comes from and they don't have a lot of extra natural reservoirs.
Quoting 1113. MAweatherboy1:

Actually, it's the Euro that has come around to the GFS, which I don't find surprising. The 0z ECMWF run kept almost all of the moisture offshore, and while the 6z GFS did trend slightly in the direction the ECMWF had been showing previously, 12z went right back far out to sea. Obviously it could still change again, but the prospects for widespread significant snow in the South remain dim IMO.
The 00zECMWF has been showing this for awhile now, Scott has been posting graphics about it from WeatherBell.

1117. Dakster
Quoting 1115. Climate175:


Looks like a repeating pattern. Is that what you see?
Quoting 1116. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The 00zECMWF has been showing this for awhile now, Scott has been posting graphics about it from WeatherBell.


Check the initialization date on that. That's from the night before last. This is last night's:



Still a little patchy light snow in places that don't usually see it, but nothing like what it had been showing.
1119. ricderr
I was hoping the the younger generation might weigh in with their opinions concerning today's question of the day. Thanx

QOD
1120. ricderr
Still a little patchy light snow in places that don't usually see it, but nothing like what it had been showing



what??????.....you mean we can't trust those long range models????.....dang nab it...i thought they were gospel!!!!!!
Good morning from Central OK,

How's it going? Long time no comment :D

Here we are enjoying a blissful day! Absolutely beautiful outside. But since we are dangling on the yo-yo string of temps lately, not expected to last beyond this weekend.

FWI, @opal92nwf, the picture you posted (#869) of the cold-damaged Sago palms - those are actually cycads (not palms). They should be ok, as long as the ground was not too damp . . .

I wish you all the best (and yes, Tallahassee is definitely not tropical - at least not yet).

Cheers.
Quoting 1117. Dakster:


Looks like a repeating pattern. Is that what you see?
i just sped up the day.Link
Quoting 1118. MAweatherboy1:

Check the initialization date on that. That's from the night before last. This is last night's:



Still a little patchy light snow in places that don't usually see it, but nothing like what it had been showing.
Still have 5 days to sort it out. A lot of the moisture you see over FL. is overrunning moisture from the warmer waters of the Gulf and the cold temperatures over land. It always comes down to the mid-levels as that layer always seems to be warmer than the upper and lower layers of the atmosphere, especially when these events are involved.
The 12z GFS is still not we want to see ideally, but it's a step towards the NAM. A NAM solution would be a major icing event across Florida, Georgia, and southern South Carolina, with heavy snow over North Carolina if extrapolated.

So right now we've got GFS and ECMWF vs. the GFS ensembles, ECMWF ensembles, CMC, (DGEX), NAM, UKMET, and JMA.

I was a bit surprised to see the 0z ECMWF, it did a tremendous flip. That's not uncharacteristic of any model really -- is it really realistic to expect them to show a blockbuster snowstorm in EVERY run leading up to the event?

The main issue regarding model consistency is the timing/strength of a shortwave forecast to come ashore into the Southwest. Until this is accurately sampled, I think we'll see more flip-flopping.

So if you live in the Southeast, don't jump off any cliffs yet. The pattern favors a snowstorm (not in the deep south, but farther north) more than it doesn't.
1125. wxmod
This is a MODIS satellite photo yesterday of a plume of pollution off the coast of Oregon. There is an active underwater volcano in this area.



Quoting 1101. DraytonDave:
Hitting me now . . . hail, rain, lightning and gusts of 50mph! Dare I say the word Derecho? ????



Over me now. Rather nasty system. Produced 60mph gusts in some places and lots of lightning/thunder. Very weird for January!
Quoting 1086. Climate175:
We watch this area in June.


Gulf is 61 here in Fort Myers. That's pretty cold water for us. Just after Christmas, Gulf temps were still in the low 70s and people were swimming at the beach. But December was really warm.

But it's been colder than average for most of January.

Quoting 1127. Sfloridacat5:


Gulf is 61 here in Fort Myers. That's pretty cold water for us. Just after Christmas, Gulf temps were still in the low 70s and people were swimming at the beach. But December was really warm.

But it's been colder than average for most of January.

It shall an be interesting year, i am telling you. In the good or bad.
1129. Grothar
Quoting 1084. Dakster:
GRO - Are you hopefully back in the warm?

I can tell I live in the wrong place. I woke up this morning at it was in the mid 60's and sunny outside. This was maybe 8:30am EST. I am in shorts, a short sleeve t-shirt, and no shoes on. I start hosing off the car and I am drenched in sweat. This is after just grabbing the hose and getting the car wet. I just wanted to knock the dust off the car as nothing drives me crazier than getting in or out of a car and getting dirt all over you.

Then at separate times two of my neighbors come strolling by in what looks like arctic gear, and they are shivering... They are in a full on strut with their dogs.

Am I just that messed up or are they?


After knowing you for as long as I have, I would say you are just that messed up. :)
Quoting 1114. Dakster:
Couldn't drought be a way of mother nature preparing to burn the forest for a fresh start? We know that forest fires are "good" for the forest and that we continually interrupt that process so when there is a fire it is devastating.

This could be a really bad fire season for the west cost of the US. I talked with a friend that lives in Washington State and they are worried because there is no snow pack like there should be. It is also worrisome because that is where their drinking water comes from and they don't have a lot of extra natural reservoirs.


It's tricky putting a "good" or "bad" label on natural phenomena like fires or floods. In both cases, their effects can be exacerbated by human activity, and we tend to judge them based on our (often) narrow self-interest. Fire intensity increases with the build-up of both live and dead fuel in a regime of total fire supression.

Similarly, levees raise the stage of floodwaters on a system like the Mississippi - simultaneously protecting the floodplains from periodic moderate flooding, and threatening costly inundation when the levee is breached. (Periodic flooding was responsible for delivering all that organic-rich silt to our nation's "breadbasket" in the first place.)

Periodic low-to-moderate intensity burning is what established and maintained the great pine forests of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as those mid- to upper-elevation pine forests in the Sierra Nevada range of California and Nevada. Large, intense fires can defeat the natural defenses of trees (bark, cones, dropping of lower limbs), as well as destroying soil structure, leading to accelerated soil erosion and flooding streams with great volumes of alkaline ash, killing aquatic life.
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 10:53 AM CST on January 25, 2014
Overcast
0 °F/-17.78 °C
Overcast
Windchill: -20 °F/-6.67 °C
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: -11 °F/11.67 °C
Wind: 16 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 23 mph

Pressure: 29.65 in (Falling)
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Overcast 3500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1624 ft

65.0 here at my place.
Good Day Sensei, if it's 60F, your neighbors have issues, light jacket maybe. They will need a shower when they come back. Keep that hose at the ready.
Anybody here heard of Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki?
Quoting 1089. Neapolitan:
The 72-hour GFS shows some anomalously nasty cold air invading both the central and eastern US, along with a chunk of Northern Asia, while the Arctic continues to be (relatively) torched.

GFS

By 168 hours, the lower tier of the US is warming up nicely, while the northern tier is still below climatology. Meanwhile, the Siberian deep freeze continues--and the Arctic warms up even more (overall 7.24C above climatology).

GFS

Interesting...



Probably means summer melting will be excessive, not a good sign.
1135. Patrap
Quoting 1101. DraytonDave:
Hitting me now . . . hail, rain, lightning and gusts of 50mph! Dare I say the word Derecho? ????




Sounds like a typical afternoon thunderstorm in Florida except it probably has less lightning and lower rainfall rates, maybe a derecho for you guys relatively speaking but not in the U.S. :)
Looks like no real big snows in the foreseeable future for the Mid-Atlantic.That snowstorm the GFS was showing for Monday will now perhaps be only a few snow showers.
Quoting 1137. Doppler22:
Mall Shooting in Maryland

3 dead

Shootings have become an everyday event in America. This is ridiculous.
This is the sexiest NAM run, ever.


Quoting 1139. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shootings have become an everyday event in America. This is ridiculous.


And the school shootings are the majority of them.
Quoting 1139. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shootings have become an everyday event in America. This is ridiculous.


Yep, In 2012, there were an estimated 1,214,462 violent crimes in the U.S.
http://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/f bi-releases-2012-crime-statistics

Quoting 1139. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shootings have become an everyday event in America. This is ridiculous.
Indeed, literally an everyday event.

Yay for us... :-\
Quoting 1139. TropicalAnalystwx13:

hmm
Quoting 1140. PensacolaDoug:
This is the sexiest NAM run, ever.


Wow it's a go or a bust at this point, because that's quite a bit of accumulations. I think with snow events it is usually hit or miss unlike predicting tropical systems which have gotten very accurate over the years 3-5 days out in terms of track.
1146. Patrap
That's no Moon,it's the Mother-lode!!


He is coming soon.
I can see this turning political and since I have nothing to really talk about today besides the same repeated pattern I'm out.
Quoting 1141. Tropicsweatherpr:


And the school shootings are the majority of them.


Heh. Not quite. Not even close, really. For an example, I've had at least 6 shootings within 100 feet of my school (I stopped counting when I heard it happens pretty regularly) and a robbery/car chase involving a police helicopter starting at a nearby bank.

Nothing bad ever inside school except for the usual fight or as my friend put it "participating in chivalry".

On the topic of weather:
Most dangerous states (D.C. included) by deaths by guns per 100,000 people

1. Washington D.C.
2. Louisiana
3. Alaska
4. Alabama
5. Nevada

http://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/death-by-gun-top- 20-states-with-highest-rates/

Based on http://www.usnews.com/news/slideshows/the-11-most- dangerous-us-cities/12

Most dangerous cities (which suprised me)
1.St. Louis
2. Atlanta
3. Orlando
4. Birmingham Al
5. Detroit
6. Memphis
Quoting 1140. PensacolaDoug:
This is the sexiest NAM run, ever.


Neary a foot of snow for Baton Rouge? (I guess that would be "Baton Blanc".) Several inches in a wide line from Beaumont to Charlotte? Gee, that looks like, er, fun...
Quoting 1147. Climate175:
He is coming soon.


Who? Me? I'm already here.
1153. yoboi
Quoting 1151. Neapolitan:
Neary a foot of snow for Baton Rouge? (I guess that would be "Baton Blanc".) Several inches from Beaumont to Charlotte? Gee, that looks like, er, fun...



I don't need anymore freezing temps or snow....If this keeps up crawfish season will be a bust for me...
Quoting 1152. oldnewmex:


Who? Me? I'm already here.
You think shootings are funny? America... oh america, anyway since this is turning into an arguments about shootings i am leaving like Washi.
It's not the guns. It's psycho's with them.
Outlaw all guns and when somebody decides to go off, they'll find another way like driving a suv thru a peewee football game or down a crowed street. You just cant fix crazy.
Quoting 1155. PensacolaDoug:
It's not the guns. It's psycho's with them.
Outlaw all guns and when somebody decides to go off, they'll find another way like driving a suv thru a peewee football game or down a crowed street. You just cant fix crazy.
Quoting 1155. PensacolaDoug:
It's not the guns. It's psycho's with them.
Outlaw all guns and when somebody decides to go off, they'll find another way like driving a suv thru a peewee football game or down a crowed street. You just cant fix crazy.
Well if you live by the sword you are going to die by it for sure.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It's not the guns. It's psycho's with them.
Outlaw all guns and when somebody decides to go off, they'll find another way like driving a suv thru a peewee football game or down a crowed street. You just cant fix crazy.


No, no, no...

It's global warming causing the uptick in violence, silly!
Here's the forecast for my area:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. West northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Currently:

42 degrees, and there has hardly been any wind at all this morning. Anemometer outside is currently measuring a calm, variable breeze. Still got a couple of hours of possible warming left in the day.

Edit: Just wanted to note that it's still cloudy outside, I have only seen peeks of blue sky.
Quoting 1155. PensacolaDoug:
It's not the guns. It's psycho's with them.
Outlaw all guns and when somebody decides to go off, they'll find another way like driving a suv thru a peewee football game or down a crowed street. You just cant fix crazy.

Guess that means it is time for a massive improvement to our investment in mental/behavioral health services in this country, along with a major campaign to change the public's perceptions of mental health as being on par with physical health.
Quoting 1147. Climate175:
He is coming soon.
the easter bunny and with it spring


Quoting 1140. PensacolaDoug:
This is the sexiest NAM run, ever.



Quoting 1151. Neapolitan:
Neary a foot of snow for Baton Rouge? (I guess that would be "Baton Blanc".) Several inches in a wide line from Beaumont to Charlotte? Gee, that looks like, er, fun...

The 12z NAM run I am looking at doesn't seem to show the same thing. Via bufkit profiles:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/im age_loader.phtml?site=kbtr
That's no snow for Baton Rouge, but temps are close, and enough QPF for good amounts of sleet or snow.

The NAM via UCAR shows mostly sleet:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/eta72hr_sfc_pty p.gif
Quoting 1160. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the easter bunny and with it spring


No Santa Claus.
Quoting 1162. Climate175:
No Santa Claus.
in eleven months from now
Quoting 1163. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in eleven months from now
Norad did track him XD.
Keep did you know what i really meant?
The 12z ECMWF isn't as bullish as before, but it's a baby step in the right direction. Still has an issue with getting the southern stream SW kicked out of the SW.
1167. Patrap
If we have the technology to Keep a Hockey Rink frozen in 80F temps, surely we can make a way for innovative new technology for clean transport and other.

Perspective.

Quoting 1165. Climate175:
Keep did you know what i really meant?
yes but this is not the place for that subject
up top it says dr jeff master not rev jeff masters
Quoting 1161. ScottLincoln:


The 12z NAM run I am looking at doesn't seem to show the same thing. Via bufkit profiles:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/im age_loader.phtml?site=kbtr
That's no snow for Baton Rouge, but temps are close, and enough QPF for good amounts of sleet or snow.

The NAM via UCAR shows mostly sleet:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/eta72hr_sfc_pty p.gif


Don't be harshing my mellow....
Quoting 1155. PensacolaDoug:
It's not the guns. It's psycho's with them.
Outlaw all guns and when somebody decides to go off, they'll find another way like driving a suv thru a peewee football game or down a crowed street. You just cant fix crazy.
There've been cars, peewee football games, crowded streets, and homicidal-minded people since 1970, yet I'm only aware of a small handful of intentional mass runovers. In that same time, however, there've been roughly 1.4 million gun deaths.

1.4 million.

Something needs to change. Clearly.
Latest ESPI data down to -62. It has been down -1.20 a few days ago.



Quoting 1170. Neapolitan:
There've been cars, peewee football games, crowded streets, and homicidal-minded people since 1970, yet I'm only aware of a small handful of intentional mass runovers. In that same time, however, there've been roughly 1.4 million gun deaths.

1.4 million.

Something needs to change. Clearly.


My contention is if you take away all guns, other forms of mass-murder will become more commonplace.
1173. pottery
Trinidad weather now…
Temp 90
Humidity 40

Nothing else matters.
They just updated our forecast again!

WOOT WOOT!!!!

Monday Night A chance of rain before 3am, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday A chance of snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
They updated this morning discussion too!!!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

.UPDATED...LATEST LOOK AT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT
AND TEMPERATURES...CALL FOR AN INTERESTING PERIOD SETTING UP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF A MIXTURE OF WINTER WEATHER. SOME PRELIMINARY ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO ZONES AND GRIDDED DATA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RISK. TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY
A FEW DEGREES AS WELL GIVEN CLOUDS...COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND PRECIPITATION. MORE INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER WILL
BE FORTHCOMING IN THE ROUTINE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /10
1176. ricderr
My contention is if you take away all guns, other forms of mass-murder will become more commonplace.





strange though that in countries where guns are hard to come by...you don't see this
Quoting 1173. pottery:
Trinidad weather now…
Temp 90
Humidity 40

Nothing else matters


Just to make a Pedley/BaltimoreBrian move here. :-)
1178. pottery
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


My contention is if you take away all guns, other forms of mass-murder will become more commonplace.

Guns in the hands of nuts are the most efficient form of killing.
An auto is far too ''personal'', and you cannot turn it on yourself when you have done shooting innocent people/children.

Whether you like it or not, guns are chosen by murderers because they can be used at long range.
~~~~~~It's a Cowards weapon of choice.
A knife/club/axe requires you to get to grips with your deed.

Remove the firearm and very many weirdos would have no balls for the action.
1179. LargoFl
1180. pottery
Quoting Astrometeor:


Just to make a Pedley/BaltimoreBrian move here. :-)


LOL
1181. Dakster
Quoting 1139. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shootings have become an everyday event in America. This is ridiculous.


It is ridiculous, but it "hasn't become" an everyday event, it has been an everyday event for a very long time.
1182. LargoFl
1183. pottery
Quoting ricderr:
My contention is if you take away all guns, other forms of mass-murder will become more commonplace.





strange though that in countries where guns are hard to come by...you don't see this</em>

True
Quoting 1172. PensacolaDoug:


My contention is if you take away all guns, other forms of mass-murder will become more commonplace.

They are you laws, your rights and your guns in the USA.
It seems to me that there hasn't yet become available to the general public an easier way of killing people, than pointing a gun at them and pulling the trigger.
If guns were not generally available to the public how many of the 1.4 million Nea mentions would be alive today?
It would take a lot of madness crazed drivers or knife wielding maniacs to achieve similar results?
In fact it would be interesting to see the non gun involved killings over the same period as the 1.4 million gun involved killings!
1185. Dakster
Quoting 1176. ricderr:
My contention is if you take away all guns, other forms of mass-murder will become more commonplace.





strange though that in countries where guns are hard to come by...you don't see this


Yep. Mostly bombings there - where dozens are taken out at once.
1186. LargoFl
yet another snowstorm thursday....
1187. pottery
Quoting Dakster:


Yep. Mostly bombings there - where dozens are taken out at once.


If you had said millions, you would have a point…..
1188. Patrap
'A Great Democracy Doesn't Make It Harder To Vote Than To Buy An Assault Weapon'
1190. LargoFl
here's your Snow for sunday......................
1191. Dakster
Quoting 1187. pottery:


If you had said millions, you would have a point…..


I don't know of any ONE bomb that has taken out millions .

I am sure that if you add up all of the deaths by bombing you would be in the millions though.
1192. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
'A Great Democracy Doesn't Make It Harder To Vote Than To Buy An Assault Weapon'

True, but weapons don't kill.

You do need to look at the people who are purchasing weapons, and try to stop the weird ones from accessing them.

Difficult.
Possible though.
Quoting 1176. ricderr:
My contention is if you take away all guns, other forms of mass-murder will become more commonplace.





strange though that in countries where guns are hard to come by...you don't see this
Quoting 1178. pottery:

Guns in the hands of nuts are the most efficient form of killing.
An auto is far too ''personal'', and you cannot turn it on yourself when you have done shooting innocent people/children.

Whether you like it or not, guns are chosen by murderers because they can be used at long range.
~~~~~~It's a Cowards weapon of choice.
A knife/club/axe requires you to get to grips with your deed.

Remove the firearm and very many weirdos would have no balls for the action.


You both make valid points
However, I stand by my contention. We have a very different and violent culture exacerbated by Hollywood and the "crazies" will find ways. The "automobile rundown" is just an example.

Anyway contemplating our impending blizzard (ha)is
more fun and I'm not gonna engage in this debate on this forum any longer.
1194. LargoFl
1195. pottery
Quoting Dakster:


I don't know of any ONE bomb that has taken out millions .

I am sure that if you add up all of the deaths by bombing you would be in the millions though.

Well, I should have qualified that a bit.

It was said earlier that 1.4 million firearm deaths were reported.
And you said 'dozens' could be killed in one bombing.
I was just trying to put that in context.

Either way we cut it, it's pretty dam dread.
lets listen to some marley

1197. pottery
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


You both make valid points
However, I stand by my contention. We have a very different and violent culture exacerbated by Hollywood and the "crazies" will find ways. The "automobile rundown" is just an example.
'

Point taken.
Quoting 1194. LargoFl:


Look at California...dry and empty in the heart of wet season.
...Gun control.. Its a scary world indeed BUT something has to be done to keep guns out of these crazy people. Now a days even 13-14 yr old kids can get a hand gun very easily. Feel for my 3 yr old daughter and what awaits her. Cant even go to a mall anymore nothing is safe.
1200. Patrap
..all I have to do is act naturally'


1201. Dakster
Quoting 1193. PensacolaDoug:


You both make valid points
However, I stand by my contention. We have a very different and violent culture exacerbated by Hollywood and the "crazies" will find ways. The "automobile rundown" is just an example.
'


A ryder truck, some fertilizer, and diesel fuel. All have law abiding purposes that you can't restrict and when combined can take down large buildings.

You can find out how to make gaseous poisons using easily accessible chemicals that will take out a lot of people. The only reason it hasn't happened in a grand scale is because of failed delivery methods.

Both of the above have happened here as well as abroad.

You don't need a gun to cause chaos.

Not that I advocate the right for full auto weapons, but have any of you shot one? That is one of the most difficult weapons to control. The first shot hits the first target and the remaining hit the ceiling (or in my case the tree tops at the end of the range)

I believe in gun control and restrictions to an extent - In the US it way to late for a ban, even if you changed the constitution.
1203. pottery
I go with Keeper.
Here's some ''More Love''

Was in the PanYard with this band last night.

n_US">
1204. pottery
A Blast from the Past….


NWS changed their forecast for today (after the temperatures exceeded the original):

Quoting 1205. Astrometeor:
NWS changed their forecast for today (after the temperatures exceeded the original):

they get colder then they forecast next

weather almost never exact
Anybody ready for the Groundhog day storm of 2014? :)
Quoting 1168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes but this is not the place for that subject
up top it says dr jeff master not rev jeff masters
hr 78 forecast sim rad

1213. ricderr
yes but this is not the place for that subject
up top it says dr jeff master not rev jeff masters







darn it...and i had jokes all lined up.......oh look....a door :-)
Quoting 1212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hr 78 forecast sim rad



If that could come up north a little more, there's some nice frigid temperatures waiting in Middle Tennessee.
Quoting 1213. ricderr:
yes but this is not the place for that subject
up top it says dr jeff master not rev jeff masters







darn it...and i had jokes all lined up.......oh look....a door :-)
I seen yer QOD iam coming over in a minute get ready
Interesting to see this map this early in the year. I don't normally notice it until later in the year when it is much more shaded. Wonder where the darkest red will be shaded this year...

Quoting 1214. Astrometeor:


If that could come up north a little more, there's some nice frigid temperatures waiting in Middle Tennessee.
it could still change yet but iam not thinking much higher up it comes from whats showing
Quoting 1206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they get colder then they forecast next

weather almost never exact


That first Arctic blast they had predicted a low of 8 at the beginning. It ended up being -3 for me. Second Arctic blast said 5, I recorded 0. Third Arctic blast is up, interesting to see if the warm bias continues.
1219. LargoFl
7-day Tampa bay area...................
Quoting 1216. Doppler22:
Interesting to see this map this early in the year. I don't normally notice it until later in the year when it is much more shaded. Wonder where the darkest red will be shaded this year...



I wish they would have a yearly/monthly picture of all of the storm reports they received. Talk about colorful.
1221. LargoFl
these artic blasts come down thru canada..why dont they come down thru alaska into the pacific so the artic blast moves into california,THEN they would get their rains...
Quoting 1221. LargoFl:
these artic blasts come down thru canada..why dont they come down thru alaska into the pacific so the artic blast moves into california,THEN they would get their rains...


Not necessarily. These last two blasts have barely given me any precipitation. The cold air associated with these fronts is really dry.

Otherwise, you should go complain to Mr. Blocking High out there over the west...
Quoting 1221. LargoFl:
these artic blasts come down thru canada..why dont they come down thru alaska into the pacific so the artic blast moves into california,THEN they would get their rains...


Because we don't want to freeze our A$$ off. The big ridge of High pressure might have something to do with it.


Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 10:53 AM PST on January 25, 2014
Scattered Clouds
71 °F / 22 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 25 °F / -4 °C
Wind: 5 mph / 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the West

Pressure: 30.17 in / 1022 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 20000 ft / 6096 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft / 249 m

70.9 here......
Yeah that nam run was cool



too far south for my liking..
also at the end of the run it's still snowing in AL/Ga


I liked the previous run better(4" by the end of the run and still falling)


GFS now actually brings the energy through mexico


but digs it way deep into the gulf, and given that the nam is trending south run by run with the snow, I'd wager that this stays off shore or only near the gulf coast again

offshore:
Quoting 1223. PedleyCA:


Because we don't want to freeze our A$$ off. The big ridge of High pressure might have something to do with it.
its stuck in park there doing a circle dance with itself should move soon maybe two more weeks end of first week of feb maybe rains may not come till ides of march
With such a deep, cold Arctic airmass, it could seem logical that any weather system in the southern stream would be shunted south of here, well down in the Gulf. So, for now, we are not going to mention snow for South Alabama Tuesday.

HOWEVER: The system yesterday and last night was not handled well by the global models, and it brought freezing rain, sleet, and some snow to Southeast Texas, and the far south part of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. We will need to watch model trends.
Quoting 1226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its stuck in park there doing a circle dance with itself should move soon maybe two more weeks end of first week of feb maybe rains may not come till ides of march


I will beware the Ides of March then. Last time we had a nasty drought like this you know what happened afterwards. Hopefully the atmospheric river isn't lined up to wash us off the planet....lol
Quoting 1221. LargoFl:
these artic blasts come down thru canada..why dont they come down thru alaska into the pacific so the artic blast moves into california,THEN they would get their rains...


Depending on the Jet stream setup (storm track) artic air does plunge down into the Pacific Northwest and down into California.

This year the pattern doesn't support that. Big ridge pulling warm air up into Alaska with cold air plunging down into the middle and Eastern parts of the U.S. That sets Cali up for warm and dry conditions.

When I was in San Diego a few years back, the snow level was down to low elevations. It can get quite cold down into Southern California.
They need the rain (winter storms) so hopefully the pattern will change.
18Z nam trends further south imo

coming out now
wow. a 45 second snow flurry , here at the pinehurst resort located in beuful nc!! to bad the usga does not let golfers play in cold, that would be a hoot,, dang it, it was nice to see, yet, after the 2000 snow, no power 4 7 days, i would like 8 inches of snow, not enuff to cause hell here in pinehurst, just enuff to sled down # 7, miss that turn you in the lake!!!!!!!!!!
I will note the GFS is still hung up on mexico for a while before coninuing movement








a stronger positive tilt of the continental trough and less consolidation on the SW energy would favor the NAM solution (all though the NAM overdoes it anyway)
cold night my friends
1234. Drakoen
Quoting 1225. GeorgiaStormz:
Yeah that nam run was cool



too far south for my liking..
also at the end of the run it's still snowing in AL/Ga


I liked the previous run better(4" by the end of the run and still falling)


GFS now actually brings the energy through mexico


but digs it way deep into the gulf, and given that the nam is trending south run by run with the snow, I'd wager that this stays off shore or only near the gulf coast again

offshore:


Would be nice if the NAM trended farther south so more of North Florida could get in on the action. The ECMWF 12z showed this as a possibility.
Question, on levi's site I am wondering the difference between the 12 and 32km nam.

If i'm understanding correctly

1. The 12km nam is only for the US and not all of north america.. Therefore it should be more accurate in shorter time before systems from off the grid move in and also more accurate toward the interior.

2. the 30km nam is on a full north american grid, so impulses in the epac for example will be properly handled, and with time handled more correctly than would the 12km.

That's just my guess.
Quoting 1234. Drakoen:


Would be nice if the NAM trended farther south so more of North Florida could get in on the action. The ECMWF 12z showed this as a possibility.


No because I live in N GA

I believe with a strong high to the north, this all ends up in the GOM anyway.
Quoting 1233. hurricanes2018:
cold night my friends


Low of 21 forecasted for me. Balmy compared to what has happened twice now this month, but still 7 degrees below the climatic normal for the date:

Quoting 1228. PedleyCA:


I will beware the Ides of March then. Last time we had a nasty drought like this you know what happened afterwards. Hopefully the atmospheric river isn't lined up to wash us off the planet....lol
I will let ya know if it is
1239. Drakoen
The ECMWF ensemble members telling a different story that the deterministic. 36/50 members on the ECMWF 00z, show the potential for snowfall in Tallahassee with a mean of 1.6 inches.

ECMWF 00z:


Awaiting the 12z update.
Switch of energy off california in progress

18znam hr 27



switches from moving north with the system off the left of image, to moving south with the continental trough.
Quoting 1239. Drakoen:
The ECMWF ensemble members telling a different story that the deterministic. 36/50 members on the ECMWF 00z, show the potential for snowfall in Tallahassee with a mean of 1.6 inches.

ECMWF 00z:


Awaiting the 12z update.


12z is cool




snow down there is rare..

I like the NAM better but i beleive the ecmwf more


the New nam consolidates the energy more, like the GFS
1242. Drakoen
NWS Tallahassee:

The global models are forecasting the aforementioned front to
stall on Tuesday as a strong, positive tilted short wave trough
(embedded within the mean 500 mb trough) approaches from the
northwest. The first forecast challenge will be the potential for
some light freezing rain/sleet/rain mix Tuesday morning with some
lingering moisture in Southeast AL and South GA. This appears as a
low probability/low impact event, but we will keep an eye on it.

The most challenging portion of this forecast is Tuesday night and
Wednesday due to the unusual question of precip type (for our
area). The 12 UTC GFS backed off on QPF a bit in our forecast
area, while the 12 UTC ECMWF has more QPF than it`s previous run.
Looking at partial thicknesses, the ECMWF would support about an
inch of snow across part of our forecast area, while the GFS
solution would be more of a mix (including light rain, freezing
rain, sleet, snow). My colleague made the interesting point that
there is also an unusual discrepancy between the operational
models and their ensembles.
With all of this uncertainty, we
haven`t made any major changes to yesterdays forecast and are
still calling for multiple precip types across much of our region.
It`s important to note that even a little bit of accumulating
ice/snow/sleet can have significant impacts to travel in the Deep
South.
NWS WFO in Nashville dropped my high on Tuesday from 20 to 11.

.....

Here she comes again.
18Z allows energy to lag even more SW....

definitely trending to GFS..

I'd say this run has the low track across the central gulf with even less snow
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
And I'm right

compare 12z




to 18z



Much further south.
Having a nice warm day down here in S.W. Fl.
1248. Levi32
Quoting 1235. GeorgiaStormz:
Question, on levi's site I am wondering the difference between the 12 and 32km nam.

If i'm understanding correctly

1. The 12km nam is only for the US and not all of north america.. Therefore it should be more accurate in shorter time before systems from off the grid move in and also more accurate toward the interior.

2. the 30km nam is on a full north american grid, so impulses in the epac for example will be properly handled, and with time handled more correctly than would the 12km.

That's just my guess.


The 12km and 32km NAM are the same model. The 32km NAM is a lower resolution grid that covers the entire model domain (North America). The native 12km model grid is restricted to the CONUS. You will notice forecasts from both are exactly the same, but one will look like a different resolution than the other.
Quoting 1248. Levi32:


The 12km and 32km NAM are the same model. The 32km NAM is a lower resolution grid that covers the entire model domain (North America). The native 12km model grid is restricted to the CONUS. You will notice forecasts from both are exactly the same, but one will look like a different resolution than the other.


ok thanks.
1250. flsky
Quoting 1203. pottery:
I go with Keeper.
Here's some ''More Love''

Was in the PanYard with this band last night.

n_US">

Looks like fun! Is this an annual event?
1251. flsky
The prediction is for 78 degrees next Sun and Mon here in ECFL. Hope the forecast holds - I need it!
.
000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2014

...Wintry precipitation possible Tuesday through Wednesday...


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The global models are forecasting the aforementioned front to
stall on Tuesday as a strong, positive tilted short wave trough
(embedded within the mean 500 mb trough) approaches from the
northwest. The first forecast challenge will be the potential for
some light freezing rain/sleet/rain mix Tuesday morning with some
lingering moisture in Southeast AL and South GA. This appears as a
low probability/low impact event, but we will keep an eye on it.

The most challenging portion of this forecast is Tuesday night and
Wednesday due to the unusual question of precip type (for our
area). The 12 UTC GFS backed off on QPF a bit in our forecast
area, while the 12 UTC ECMWF has more QPF than it`s previous run.
Looking at partial thicknesses, the ECMWF would support about an
inch of snow across part of our forecast area, while the GFS
solution would be more of a mix (including light rain, freezing
rain, sleet, snow). My colleague made the interesting point that
there is also an unusual discrepancy between the operational
models and their ensembles. With all of this uncertainty, we
haven`t made any major changes to yesterdays forecast and are
still calling for multiple precip types across much of our region.
It`s important to note that even a little bit of accumulating
ice/snow/sleet can have significant impacts to travel in the Deep
South.


After a chilly mid week (with the potential for a hard freeze or
two), there is finally good agreement among the GFS and ECMWF in a
major large scale 500 mb pattern change. Both models forecast a long
wave trough to develop over the western CONUS and a ridge over the
east. This would mean a gradual warming trend for our area and
generally fair weather.
1254. ARiot
Here in MD at the top of the bay, I ain't washing the salt off the cars just yet.

The roads are white with salt, and I hope whatever rain we get isn't too hard. I have a feeling that salt will come in handy soon.

I also think a return to warmer than normal is in the cards for late Feb. and March. Just a hunch.